FactSet Evening Market Recap

US equities mostly lower in Tuesday trading. S&P 500 finished lower and near worst levels after the index touched a fresh intraday record high early in the session. Market largely unable to sustain earlier AI tailwind from news that Nvidia can resume selling its H 20 AI chip in China. Headline June CPI up 0 point 3% m/m

US equities ended the day higher. It was a very quiet session as the market continues to digest the evolving trade backdrop. The Street is looking for more color from Q2 earnings, which kick off this week, around pre-tariff stockpile drawdowns and the impact from sector-specific tariffs.

US equities were mostly lower this week after the S&P and Nasdaq both hit fresh record closes last week. It was a relatively quiet week with the market looking to next week's June CPI report and the kick-off of Q2 earnings. Big Tech and AI developments occupied significant headline space with NVDA becoming the first company with a $4T market cap.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off best levels. S&P 500 and Nasdaq set fresh record closing highs. It was another quiet session with the market seemingly in waiting mode for June CPI next Tuesday and the start of Q2 earnings season (big banks begin reporting on 15-Jul). The market still seems to be more focused on potential trade policy off-ramps, particularly following this week's reciprocal tariff deadline extension.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading as stocks ended just off their best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 49bps, 61bps, and 94bps respectively. No notable directional drivers in play. MBA mortgage purchase applications jumped to their highest level since early 2023. Nvidia became the first company with a $4T market cap. Retailers took in $7.9B in the first 24 hours of Amazon Prime Day, up 10% y/y, according to Adobe Analytics.

US equities finished mixed in choppy but largely uneventful Tuesday trading. Still all about trade with some reprieve surrounding extension of reciprocal tariff deadline to 1-Aug and White House signaling on more deal announcements in the works. NFIB small business optimism index declined slightly in June

US equities were higher in Thursday trading as stocks ended near best levels. The biggest focus today was on the Big, Beautiful Bill, which is set to pass a vote on final passage today and will move to Trump's desk in time for his long-preferred 4-Jul deadline. The Market is digesting mixed takeaways from June payrolls, including a headline beat and revisions higher but weaker private payrolls, and AHE cooler.

US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, ending near best levels, with the Dow Jones closing down 2bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 47bps and 94bps respectively, setting new fresh record closes and the major indices on track for healthy gains in the holiday-shortened week. Negative ADP print received some attention, Big Beautiful Bill moved to the House after passing in the Senate, and Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam involving a 20% overall tariff. Overseas, gilts sold off sharply after UK prime minister Starmer declined to say that Chancellor Reeves would stay in her role until the end of parliament.

US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though ended a bit off best levels. Tuesday trading was fairly choppy after market closed out a very strong Q2 on Monday. Senate passed GOP's One Big Beautiful Bill, as largely expected.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels, with the S&P and Nasdaq setting new record closes. It was a fairly quiet session, though there were a few trade headlines of note. It was a fairly light economic day today, with June's Dallas Fed manufacturing just a bit weaker than forecast.

US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 broke a streak of two-straight weekly declines. Easing geopolitical tensions and trade updates were a key tailwind this week. However, the reconciliation bill remains a key market overhang.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, as stocks ended near best levels. Much of the focus in the market continues to revolve around the political pressure on the Fed to cut rates, and the potential for Trump to name a Powell successor as early as this summer. Initial jobless claims down 10K w/w to 236K, better than expected and lowest since mid-May. Lots of Fedspeak today, with Chicago's Goolsbee, Governor Barr, Richmond's Barkin, San Francisco's Daly, and Boston's Collins all speaking.

US equities finished mixed today, with the Dow Jones down 25bps, the S&P500 flat, and the Nasdaq rising 31bps. May new home sales posted a big miss, lowest since October, and weakest May print since 2019. Fed Chair Powell delivered his second day of monetary policy testimony commenting future trade deals may allow the Fed to consider rate cuts. Fed also announced its proposed SLR changes. Today's $70B 5-year note auction stopped through 0.5 bp.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending just off best levels and extending Monday's gains. A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran was the biggest positive, though President Trump offered a rebuke over attacks launched by both sides after the announcement. Meanwhile, in prepared remarks and congressional testimony, Fed Chair Powell largely maintained his wait and see approach to rate cuts.

US equities closed higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels. Middle East tensions continue to dominate the headlines. In macro news, the June US flash PMI composite came in ahead of consensus, with manufacturing better, but services cooler.

US equities were mostly higher for the week, recovering some of last week's losses which were largely driven by the Israel-Iran conflict. According to the White House, President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran in an effort to give diplomacy a final chance. Regarding trade developments, a lack of trade deal traction ahead of the 9-Jul reciprocal tariff deadline received some scrutiny.

US equities were narrowly mixed in very choppy Wednesday trading, as stocks ended off best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 ending down 10bps and 3bps, while the Nasdaq rose +13bps. No surprise in FOMC leaving the policy rate unchanged, with the median dot still showing two rate cuts for 2025, though 2026 and 2027 dots saw a hawkish shift. May housing starts fell 9.8% m/m, missing expectations and lowest read since May-20.

US equities were lower in Tuesday trading, stocks a bit off worst levels. Middle East tensions have swung back and were today's biggest overhang on sentiment, though market held up relatively well with major averages all down less than 1%. May retail sales saw a steeper-than-consensus headline drop of 0.9% m/m amid an expected pullback in auto sales.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, though ended off best levels. Today's risk on move was tabbed to a rebound from Friday's selloff and some improved geopolitical headlines. It was quiet on the US economic calendar today. June's Empire State manufacturing survey posted a surprise decline.

US equities were lower this week, with some moderate weekly gains for the major indices evaporating in Friday's risk-off session amid the growing Israel-Iran conflict. Treasuries were stronger, with yields more than erasing the prior week's increases. Trade was once again a major thread in the week's narrative

US equities finished mostly higher in Thursday trading. Lower yields and a weaker dollar were in focus, with another batch of cooler inflation data and recent upward pressure on claims and continuing claims. Today's $22B 30Y auction stopped through 1.5bp, and included the smallest dealer take since November. Republican senators Thune and Crapo are meeting with President Trump at White House today to discuss the reconciliation bill

US equities closed mostly lower Wednesday, though off worst levels, with the Dow Jones flat, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq lost 27bps and 50bps respectively. May headline CPI rose +0.1% m/m, below consensus +0.2%, while Core CPI also rose 0.1% m/m against expectations for a 0.3% increase. Treasury's $39B sale of 10-year notes stopped 0.7bp through. In Washington, Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted at potential trade deadline extensions.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading as stocks ended just off best levels. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said US-China trade talks are going well and could end tonight, but the team will remain tomorrow if necessary. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ticked up to 98.8 in May from 95.8 in April, ahead of expectations and snapping a four-month streak of declines.

US equities finished mostly higher in relatively quiet Monday trading, though closed off best levels. There was no real direction today from the market's main focus on US-China trade talks in London. And some good news on the inflation front, with the New York Fed consumer survey inflation expectations coming down for the one-, three-, and five-year time horizons.

Stocks were higher for a second-straight week this week. President Trump and China's Xi held a phone call Thursday, which ended with an agreement to a new round of trade talks as trade tensions linger. Friday's May NFP report showed headline payrolls better than expected though the prior two months were revised down.

US equities were lower in choppy Thursday afternoon trading. The worsening Trump Musk rift pressured the market today, with Musk taking personal swings at Trump and continuing to argue against GOP legislative efforts. There were multiple headlines around the reconciliation bill, particularly in terms of differences between Senate Republicans and the White House on potential changes to tax-cut provisions, along with lingering concerns about the deficit implications

US equities were mixed in choppy, but largely uneventful Wednesday trading, With the Dow Jones closing down 22bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 1bps and 32bps respectively. The Big story today was weaker data and the accompanying rate rally. May ADP private payrolls coming in much softer than expected while May ISM Services moved back into contraction territory. Results seen as putting some added scrutiny on May non-farm payrolls this Friday. Fed's latest Beige Book said economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversed pre-market declines to finish higher for a second-straight session. The Market continued to grind higher ahead of NFP on Friday with the report expected to highlight fairly resilient hard data. April JOLTS job openings of 7.391M were higher than the 7.100M consensus, while the prior was revised slightly higher.

US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading as stocks ended near best levels. Trade is dominating headlines again, with Trump on Friday announcing a plan to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, and the US and China trading accusations about reneging on their recent agreement. May ISM manufacturing of 48.5 missed, the weakest since November.

US equities were higher for the week, gaining back some of the prior week's losses. A US federal court struck down the Trump administration's tariffs, including the 10% baseline tariff, the 20% incremental tariff on China, and the 25% tariff on non-USMCA-compliant imports from Mexico and Canada. However, a US federal appeals court subsequently allowed the tariffs to remain.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading. There was some optimism overnight after a US Court of International Trade ruling struck down Trump tariffs, but late in the session a US appeals court stayed the ruling. Big tech was strong on the day, with NVDA faring well following its earnings announcement.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending near worst levels after some late-session weakness, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 58bps, 56bps, and 51bps respectively. A Fairly uneventful session with few directional drivers to follow up Tuesday's rally, and some focus pulled ahead to Nvidia earnings after the close. May's Richmond Fed manufacturing Index improved m/m though remained in contraction. May FOMC minutes said officials felt a cautious approach appropriate amid uncertainty, and Fed well positioned to wait for clarity on the outlook.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending not far from best levels in a session that saw major indices recouping much of last week's broad declines. Trump delaying 50% tariff deadline on EU. Fading hedge fund/CTA buying, dampened retail sentiment

Major US equity indices were lower this week, trimming the prior week's notable gains; the Russell dropped after six straight weekly gains. Trade was not a big factor earlier in the week, though there seemed to be some waning of the optimism that followed the US-China de-escalation after the Geneva talks. However, trade stormed back into the narrative on Friday morning, with Trump posting that discussions with the EU were going nowhere and the bloc would see a 50% general tariff starting 1-Jun.

US equities ended higher in Thursday trading, just off their best levels. The bond yield backup, and meaningful yield curve steepening across markets, has been the big story as of late, with multiple and often intertwined drivers behind the move. In company news, earnings remain in focus with AAP and URBN driving large moves following their results.

US equities were lower in Wednesday afternoon trading, as stocks ended just off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 197bps, 168bps, and 139bps respectively. Today's $16B auction of 20-year notes tailed by 1.2bps, with bond yields rising, curve bear steepening, pressuring equities in the afternoon. Mixed retailer earnings, mostly upbeat AI headlines, among corporate news items, while budget reconciliation bill remains stalled and Israeli, Iranian geopolitical tensions in focus.

US equities were mostly lower in quiet, rangebound Tuesday trading. Fiscal policy in the headlines with Trump pressuring both House Republican fiscal hawks and SALT-focused members to get on board with the reconciliation bill. Retail in focus when it comes to corporate news.

US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading. Stocks shook off earlier weakness that was initially driven by Moody's cutting US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday. Nothing on the US economic calendar today, but a lot of Fedspeak.

US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finished up for a third week in the past four. Stocks rallied this week, with the Monday announcement that the US and China would ease trade tensions the biggest catalyst. Data this week included April core CPI and PPI both coming in cooler than expected.

US equities finished mostly higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off best levels. There were a myriad moving pieces today, including outperformance of defensive leaning sectors that seemed to be sources of funds earlier in the week. And some mixed takeaways from a big morning of economic data

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 21bps, and the S&P500 and Nasdaq finishing up 10bps and 72bps respectively. Fairly directionless trading in today's session, with nothing particularly incremental on trade, though the White House hinted another deal could be announced when Trump returns from his overseas trip, while media reports said Japan, South Korea deals are close. Fed's Jefferson noted tariffs could slow growth and boost inflation but the Fed is well-positioned in that event.

US equities finished mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though ended off best levels. Positive takes on the cooler April CPI print and upbeat AI headlines surrounding Trump's Middle East trip (president touted Saudi's $600M investment pledge). April core CPI of 0.2% was a bit cooler than consensus 0.3%.

US equities finished notably higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels. Risk assets were boosted by a meaningful de-escalation of US-China trade tensions following weekend talks in Switzerland. It was also busy from a political headline perspective outside of trade.

US equities were mixed this week after putting in a strong performance last week when the S&P reached levels above the early April drop following Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. Stocks were mostly lower this week on the heels of a recent nine-day S&P 500 winning streak, though losses were partially limited by some positive trade and tariff developments with a focus on de-escalation. Meanwhile, the May FOMC meeting ended with a hold at 4.25-4.5%, as expected.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, though stocks ended off best levels as the market shed some of its gains in late afternoon weakness. Stocks were underpinned by the latest developments on trade, as the US and UK announced a framework agreement. Meanwhile, Initial jobless claims were down 13K w/w to 228K, in line with consensus.

US equities were higher in very choppy Wednesday trading, a bit off session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 70bps, 43bps, and 27bps respectively. FOMC takeaways were mixed, noting the bank is attentive to fears on both sides of its dual mandate though market still pricing in a slightly more dovish Fed outlook. Trump administration is planning to rescind chip curbs and will not enforce Biden-era AI diffusion rule. Bloomberg reported about Apple exploring AI search for its browser causing shares of Alphabet to slump.

US equities were lower in Tuesday trading, though stocks ended a bit off worst levels. S&P 500 finished down for second-straight day. Trade headlines somewhat mixed. March trade balance more negative than expected at record $140.5B.

US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading, though stocks ended off worst levels. It was a very quiet session with VIX back near pre-Liberation Day levels, volume muted, and limited catalysts in coming weeks. In macro news, April ISM Services came in above estimates, its highest since February 2024.

US equities were higher for the week. Big tech was mostly higher. This week's market mood was helped by further signs of deescalating trade/tariff tensions. China said it was "evaluating" recent US overtures. ISM manufacturing was firmer than consensus.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, though ended near session lows after coming off in the last minutes of trading. Big tech earnings and cap-ex guides were the big tailwind today with renewed support for the AI secular growth narrative. In macro news, April's ISM manufacturing was better than feared at 48.7, ahead of the 48.1 consensus, though still down from March's 49.0.

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, coming well off worst levels from the early session and seeing a sharp rally in the closing minutes. Big story today was the soft Q1 GDP report showing economy contracted for the first time since early 2022. ADP private payrolls of 62K missed. GDP price index of 3.5% hotter than estimates. Core PCE price index up 3.5%.