FactSet Evening Market Recap

US equities were narrowly mixed in very choppy Wednesday trading, as stocks ended off best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 ending down 10bps and 3bps, while the Nasdaq rose +13bps. No surprise in FOMC leaving the policy rate unchanged, with the median dot still showing two rate cuts for 2025, though 2026 and 2027 dots saw a hawkish shift. May housing starts fell 9.8% m/m, missing expectations and lowest read since May-20.

US equities were lower in Tuesday trading, stocks a bit off worst levels. Middle East tensions have swung back and were today's biggest overhang on sentiment, though market held up relatively well with major averages all down less than 1%. May retail sales saw a steeper-than-consensus headline drop of 0.9% m/m amid an expected pullback in auto sales.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, though ended off best levels. Today's risk on move was tabbed to a rebound from Friday's selloff and some improved geopolitical headlines. It was quiet on the US economic calendar today. June's Empire State manufacturing survey posted a surprise decline.

US equities were lower this week, with some moderate weekly gains for the major indices evaporating in Friday's risk-off session amid the growing Israel-Iran conflict. Treasuries were stronger, with yields more than erasing the prior week's increases. Trade was once again a major thread in the week's narrative

US equities finished mostly higher in Thursday trading. Lower yields and a weaker dollar were in focus, with another batch of cooler inflation data and recent upward pressure on claims and continuing claims. Today's $22B 30Y auction stopped through 1.5bp, and included the smallest dealer take since November. Republican senators Thune and Crapo are meeting with President Trump at White House today to discuss the reconciliation bill

US equities closed mostly lower Wednesday, though off worst levels, with the Dow Jones flat, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq lost 27bps and 50bps respectively. May headline CPI rose +0.1% m/m, below consensus +0.2%, while Core CPI also rose 0.1% m/m against expectations for a 0.3% increase. Treasury's $39B sale of 10-year notes stopped 0.7bp through. In Washington, Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted at potential trade deadline extensions.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading as stocks ended just off best levels. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said US-China trade talks are going well and could end tonight, but the team will remain tomorrow if necessary. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ticked up to 98.8 in May from 95.8 in April, ahead of expectations and snapping a four-month streak of declines.

US equities finished mostly higher in relatively quiet Monday trading, though closed off best levels. There was no real direction today from the market's main focus on US-China trade talks in London. And some good news on the inflation front, with the New York Fed consumer survey inflation expectations coming down for the one-, three-, and five-year time horizons.

Stocks were higher for a second-straight week this week. President Trump and China's Xi held a phone call Thursday, which ended with an agreement to a new round of trade talks as trade tensions linger. Friday's May NFP report showed headline payrolls better than expected though the prior two months were revised down.

US equities were lower in choppy Thursday afternoon trading. The worsening Trump Musk rift pressured the market today, with Musk taking personal swings at Trump and continuing to argue against GOP legislative efforts. There were multiple headlines around the reconciliation bill, particularly in terms of differences between Senate Republicans and the White House on potential changes to tax-cut provisions, along with lingering concerns about the deficit implications

US equities were mixed in choppy, but largely uneventful Wednesday trading, With the Dow Jones closing down 22bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 1bps and 32bps respectively. The Big story today was weaker data and the accompanying rate rally. May ADP private payrolls coming in much softer than expected while May ISM Services moved back into contraction territory. Results seen as putting some added scrutiny on May non-farm payrolls this Friday. Fed's latest Beige Book said economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversed pre-market declines to finish higher for a second-straight session. The Market continued to grind higher ahead of NFP on Friday with the report expected to highlight fairly resilient hard data. April JOLTS job openings of 7.391M were higher than the 7.100M consensus, while the prior was revised slightly higher.

US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading as stocks ended near best levels. Trade is dominating headlines again, with Trump on Friday announcing a plan to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, and the US and China trading accusations about reneging on their recent agreement. May ISM manufacturing of 48.5 missed, the weakest since November.

US equities were higher for the week, gaining back some of the prior week's losses. A US federal court struck down the Trump administration's tariffs, including the 10% baseline tariff, the 20% incremental tariff on China, and the 25% tariff on non-USMCA-compliant imports from Mexico and Canada. However, a US federal appeals court subsequently allowed the tariffs to remain.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading. There was some optimism overnight after a US Court of International Trade ruling struck down Trump tariffs, but late in the session a US appeals court stayed the ruling. Big tech was strong on the day, with NVDA faring well following its earnings announcement.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending near worst levels after some late-session weakness, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 58bps, 56bps, and 51bps respectively. A Fairly uneventful session with few directional drivers to follow up Tuesday's rally, and some focus pulled ahead to Nvidia earnings after the close. May's Richmond Fed manufacturing Index improved m/m though remained in contraction. May FOMC minutes said officials felt a cautious approach appropriate amid uncertainty, and Fed well positioned to wait for clarity on the outlook.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending not far from best levels in a session that saw major indices recouping much of last week's broad declines. Trump delaying 50% tariff deadline on EU. Fading hedge fund/CTA buying, dampened retail sentiment

Major US equity indices were lower this week, trimming the prior week's notable gains; the Russell dropped after six straight weekly gains. Trade was not a big factor earlier in the week, though there seemed to be some waning of the optimism that followed the US-China de-escalation after the Geneva talks. However, trade stormed back into the narrative on Friday morning, with Trump posting that discussions with the EU were going nowhere and the bloc would see a 50% general tariff starting 1-Jun.

US equities ended higher in Thursday trading, just off their best levels. The bond yield backup, and meaningful yield curve steepening across markets, has been the big story as of late, with multiple and often intertwined drivers behind the move. In company news, earnings remain in focus with AAP and URBN driving large moves following their results.

US equities were lower in Wednesday afternoon trading, as stocks ended just off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 197bps, 168bps, and 139bps respectively. Today's $16B auction of 20-year notes tailed by 1.2bps, with bond yields rising, curve bear steepening, pressuring equities in the afternoon. Mixed retailer earnings, mostly upbeat AI headlines, among corporate news items, while budget reconciliation bill remains stalled and Israeli, Iranian geopolitical tensions in focus.

US equities were mostly lower in quiet, rangebound Tuesday trading. Fiscal policy in the headlines with Trump pressuring both House Republican fiscal hawks and SALT-focused members to get on board with the reconciliation bill. Retail in focus when it comes to corporate news.

US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading. Stocks shook off earlier weakness that was initially driven by Moody's cutting US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday. Nothing on the US economic calendar today, but a lot of Fedspeak.

US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finished up for a third week in the past four. Stocks rallied this week, with the Monday announcement that the US and China would ease trade tensions the biggest catalyst. Data this week included April core CPI and PPI both coming in cooler than expected.

US equities finished mostly higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off best levels. There were a myriad moving pieces today, including outperformance of defensive leaning sectors that seemed to be sources of funds earlier in the week. And some mixed takeaways from a big morning of economic data

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 21bps, and the S&P500 and Nasdaq finishing up 10bps and 72bps respectively. Fairly directionless trading in today's session, with nothing particularly incremental on trade, though the White House hinted another deal could be announced when Trump returns from his overseas trip, while media reports said Japan, South Korea deals are close. Fed's Jefferson noted tariffs could slow growth and boost inflation but the Fed is well-positioned in that event.

US equities finished mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though ended off best levels. Positive takes on the cooler April CPI print and upbeat AI headlines surrounding Trump's Middle East trip (president touted Saudi's $600M investment pledge). April core CPI of 0.2% was a bit cooler than consensus 0.3%.

US equities finished notably higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels. Risk assets were boosted by a meaningful de-escalation of US-China trade tensions following weekend talks in Switzerland. It was also busy from a political headline perspective outside of trade.

US equities were mixed this week after putting in a strong performance last week when the S&P reached levels above the early April drop following Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement. Stocks were mostly lower this week on the heels of a recent nine-day S&P 500 winning streak, though losses were partially limited by some positive trade and tariff developments with a focus on de-escalation. Meanwhile, the May FOMC meeting ended with a hold at 4.25-4.5%, as expected.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, though stocks ended off best levels as the market shed some of its gains in late afternoon weakness. Stocks were underpinned by the latest developments on trade, as the US and UK announced a framework agreement. Meanwhile, Initial jobless claims were down 13K w/w to 228K, in line with consensus.

US equities were higher in very choppy Wednesday trading, a bit off session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 70bps, 43bps, and 27bps respectively. FOMC takeaways were mixed, noting the bank is attentive to fears on both sides of its dual mandate though market still pricing in a slightly more dovish Fed outlook. Trump administration is planning to rescind chip curbs and will not enforce Biden-era AI diffusion rule. Bloomberg reported about Apple exploring AI search for its browser causing shares of Alphabet to slump.

US equities were lower in Tuesday trading, though stocks ended a bit off worst levels. S&P 500 finished down for second-straight day. Trade headlines somewhat mixed. March trade balance more negative than expected at record $140.5B.

US equities were mostly lower in Monday trading, though stocks ended off worst levels. It was a very quiet session with VIX back near pre-Liberation Day levels, volume muted, and limited catalysts in coming weeks. In macro news, April ISM Services came in above estimates, its highest since February 2024.

US equities were higher for the week. Big tech was mostly higher. This week's market mood was helped by further signs of deescalating trade/tariff tensions. China said it was "evaluating" recent US overtures. ISM manufacturing was firmer than consensus.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, though ended near session lows after coming off in the last minutes of trading. Big tech earnings and cap-ex guides were the big tailwind today with renewed support for the AI secular growth narrative. In macro news, April's ISM manufacturing was better than feared at 48.7, ahead of the 48.1 consensus, though still down from March's 49.0.

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, coming well off worst levels from the early session and seeing a sharp rally in the closing minutes. Big story today was the soft Q1 GDP report showing economy contracted for the first time since early 2022. ADP private payrolls of 62K missed. GDP price index of 3.5% hotter than estimates. Core PCE price index up 3.5%.

S&P logged its sixth straight gain, extending its longest winning streak of the year. Tariff relief for autos and auto parts was the big story. April consumer confidence dropped to 86.0, lowest since spring 2020.

US equities finished mostly higher in an up-and-down session on Monday, finishing well off worst midday levels. It was a fairly uneventful session with the market in waiting mode for the flurry of high-profile macro data and earnings reports this week. In macro news, April's Dallas Fed Index was well below consensus, the lowest since May 2020.

US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their second-best weeks year-to-date. Trade remained the biggest focus for markets, while concerns around Fed independence were also responsible for weakness earlier in the week. Economic data was mostly weaker, adding to growth fears.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, near best levels. There was no one specific factor behind today's move, though thin liquidity and depressed positioning have received attention and recent strength has been a function of select tariff and Fed off-ramps. In macro news, headline March durable goods orders saw a 9.2% month over month increase, well ahead of consensus but driven almost entirely by transportation.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, though ended off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 107bps, 167bps, and 250bps respectively. Global risk assets were boosted by comments from President Trump on Powell, China tariffs. April flash composite PMI was a bit weaker than consensus. March new home sales printed well above consensus. Fed's Beige Book said activity little changed since the previous report, but uncertainty around trade policy is pervasive.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading as stocks finished not far off best levels. Low bar for trade seemingly the big driver of the Tuesday bounce. April Richmond Fed manufacturing index missed, including lower employment index and rising prices paid.

US equities were sharply lower in Monday trading, though off worst levels. Today's weakness was tabbed to concerns about Fed independence and related scrutiny already surrounding the US exceptionalism/safe-haven themes from Trump trade policies. Nothing on the US economic calendar today, but Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said short-run inflation expectations are up, but not rising in the long run, still seeing rates lower in 12-18 months.

US equities were mixed in Thursday trading, ending off best levels, and seeing Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq cap weekly declines. A number of moving pieces to close out the holiday-shortened trading week today. In macro news, April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index dropped to (26.4) versus consensus for +3.5.

US equities finished sharply lower in Wednesday trading, ending a bit off worst levels, with the Dow Jones the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq falling 173bps, 224bps, and 307bps respectively. Nvidia was the biggest drag after yesterday's announcement of new US government export restrictions on their H20 chips. Also some hawkish takes on Fed Chair Powell's remarks today who noted tariff increases are significantly larger than anticipated, which could lead to higher inflation and slower growth. March headline retail sales, sales ex-autos, and sales ex-autos and gas all came in a bit better than expected. April NAHB housing market index beat, but sales expectations lowest since Jan-23.

US equities finished mostly lower in Tuesday trading, ending off some modest earlier gains, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 38bps, 17bps, and 5bps respectively. US-European Union talks have made little progress. White House also formally launched national security probes into pharmaceuticals and semis. April's Empire State Index came in better, but expectations index hit second lowest level on record. March import prices were down, and export prices were flat.

US equities closed higher in Monday trading, improving through the afternoon after seeing some midday softness. It was a relatively quiet session compared to recent days with stocks trading in a fairly wide range but VIX is back down to 31 after touching 60 last week. In macro news, the New York Fed's March Survey of Consumer Expectations noted that the year-ahead inflation expectations increased 0.5%, but were flat at the 3Y horizon and declined at the 5Y.

Major market indices were up for the week, rebounding after the prior week's notable slide. On Wednesday, President Trump abruptly announced a 90-day pause for reciprocal tariffs on countries that had not retaliated and had sought negotiated settlements, resulting in a massive rally. At the same time, however, the White House raised the tariff rate on China to 125% (later clarified as 145%). On the economic front, March core CPI came in cooler than consensus, while the headline logged an outright monthly decline.

US equities were sharply lower in Thursday trading, though ended off worst levels. Stocks gave back some of their monster Wednesday rally, a good chunk of which was chalked up to oversold conditions, positioning, and short covering. In macro news, headline March CPI decreased 0.1% month over month, cooler than consensus amid lower energy prices.

US equities finished sharply higher. A huge bounce on Trump's decision to pause higher reciprocal tariff rates for 90 days on most countries except China, where he raised the tariff rate to 125%, effective immediately. In macro news, February wholesale inventories were up 0.3% month over month, level with January but lighter than consensus.

US equities were sharply lower in Tuesday trading, though finished off worst levels. Stocks open sharply higher before turning lower on White House confirmation 104% tariff on China will go into effect on 9-Apr after China failed to removed retaliation. NFIB small business sentiment fell 3.3 points in March to 97.4

US equities were mostly lower following a very volatile Monday afternoon session, though stocks finished well off their worst levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing down 91bps and 23bps, while the Nasdaq finished up 10bps. White House officials continue to offer mixed messaging on trade. A bit of Fedspeak from Governor Kugler, who said coming tariffs will be consequential and the Fed is already seeing some signs of higher prices. Apple will reportedly send more iPhones to the US from India to avoid steeper China tariffs.