FactSet Evening Market Recap

There was very little readthrough in Thursday trading as stocks struggled for overall direction with much more seemingly going on beneath the surface. The shift from micro to macro has been the story this week with a busy sell-side conference calendar and more tech and retail earnings. In addition, when it comes to the key inputs for the market narrative, there are lots of moving pieces as of late surrounding the Fed, AI, the labor market and consumers.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading though stocks ended a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 86bbps, 30bps, and 17bps respectively. Themes of the day highlighted in mixed headlines regarding Microsoft customer AI adoption versus Marvell data center growth. Softening labor market, support for more Fed cuts, also highlighted in November ADP private payrolls falling 32K versus expectations to increase by~10K, while Industrial Production met, and ISM Services and S&P Services PMI came in ahead. December FOMC decision on deck for next week, with probably of additional 25bp cut just below 90%.

US equities higher in Tuesday afternoon trading, though off best levels. Busy on the AI front. Biggest takeaway seems to revolve around how disruption/upheaval headlines have become increasingly embedded in the broader AI narrative and are driving more volatility/dispersion in the price action.

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending not far from worst levels. It was a fairly quiet session in the wake of the US Thanksgiving holiday. The market shook off a bit of the morning's risk-off bias tabbed to upward pressure on JGB yields amid ramping BoJ tightening expectations, as well as ongoing Bitcoin weakness following a nearly 20% decline last month.

US equities built on the prior Friday's bounce and rallied sharply over the final week of November, ending higher for a fifth straight session. December rate cut odds pushed above 80% (after briefly falling below 30% in the prior week) as Waller and Daley followed Williams from late last week with dovish leaning Fedspeak. Claims data continued to offer a more optimistic assessment of the labor market amid continued concerns about incremental softening.

US equities closed higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 67bps, 69bps, and 82bps respectively. The Big story today was momentum factor outperformance following recent selloff. Elsewhere, Initial claims printed at 216K for week-ended 22-Nov, better than the 230K consensus, while continuing claims came in at 1.960M, below the 1.964M consensus. Treasury's auction of $44B in 7-year notes tailed by 0.6 bp, following Tuesday's tailing 5Y sale.

US equities ended the day higher, trading near beat levels. Big tech was once again in focus, with Nvidia a notable decliner amid competition concerns from Alphabet. Today also saw a lower rate backdrop as it was reported that Hasset was the front runner to replace Powell as the Fed chair

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending not far from best levels. US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending not far from best levels. On the Fed front, December easing odds continue to tick higher with San Francisco's Daly the latest to publicly get behind a cut.

US equities were lower this week, with the S&P 500 down for a second week in the past three, and Nasdaq down for a third-straight week. Stocks finished the week lower with the momentum selloff the big focus amidst ongoing AI scrutiny/skepticism. Nvidia posted a beat and raise, but that was not enough to offset broader AI fears.

US equities lower in Thursday trading, near their worst levels. There was nothing specific behind the move, though stretched valuations, technicals, and the market simply falling back into the recent momentum unwind are all easy excuses. Thursday's jobs data also seemed to play into growth fears, including a negative revision for the August print, cooler wage growth than expected, the highest unemployment rate in four years, and continuing jobless claims setting a fresh cycle high

US equities finished higher in Wednesday afternoon trading, closing off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 10bps, 38bps, and 59bps respectively. Positive close followed a four-day slide for the S&P, with Nvidia higher ahead of its post-close print. October's FOMC minutes noted "many" participants suggested it would be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for rest of the year. Treasury auction of $16B in 20-year bonds tailed by 0.2 bp, with the bid-to-cover and foreign demand both weaker than recent trends. TJX and Williams Sonoma beat and raised, but Target missed and lowered FY EPS.

US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading, though ended off worst levels in fairly choppy trading. Select big tech and AI still under scrutiny while healthcare remains a preferred destination.

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending a bit off worst levels. There were a few moving pieces as the market waits for a number of higher-profile events this week, including Nvidia NVDA earnings, retail earnings, FOMC minutes, a barrage of Fedspeak, and September's NFP and flash PMIs. In macro news, the Empire State manufacturing survey for November posted a surprise increase to 18.7, its highest since last November.

Major US equity indices logged mixed performance this week, with a recent momentum unwind seeing some stabilization on Friday. AI names, retail-investor favorites, most-shorted names, crypto-linked companies, and quantum computing came under some pressure. Among the big stories in the ongoing AI-scrutiny thread were Softbank's sale of its Nvidia stake, a continuing selloff in Oracle with focus on its debt-fueled AI buildout plans, and Coreweave weakness after lowering guidance on delays from a third-party developer.

US equities were lower in Thursday trading as stocks ended just a bit off worst levels. Momentum unwind the big story today. No one specific factor behind the move, though fits with recent pickup in AI sentiment volatility. Higher rate backdrop also in focus with recent bout of hawkish Fedspeak and dampened December easing odds

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday afternoon trading, and off best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing up 68bps and 6bps respectively, while the Nasdaq closed down 26bps, in another session characterized by better breadth. AI sentiment helped by positive AMD analyst day takeaways and Foxconn earnings, though a number of big tech names were soft. Fedspeak for the day included Atlanta's Bostic noting he favors keeping funds rate steady until clearer evidence inflation moving lower, and Miran again noted his preference for a 50 bp December cut. Treasury's $42B 10-year note auction tailed by 0.6 bp with the lowest bid-to-cover since August of 2024.

US equities finished mostly higher in Tuesday trading, ending a bit off best levels. Rotation/better breadth the story today with select defensive and cyclical pockets of the market outperforming while some of the AI trade has come under renewed scrutiny after a big Monday bounce.

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending near session highs. The bigger story for the market today seems to be the rebound in AI sentiment after last week's drawdown. Nothing on the US economic calendar today, but a busy day of Fedspeak.

Major US equity indices were down this week, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq declining after three straight weekly gains. AI scrutiny remained a key focus, with attention on all the major narrative elements including cash burn, leverage, circularity, and ROI. There was attention on OpenAI agreeing to a $38B deal with Amazon, pushing the company's recent commitments near $1.5T.

US equities were lower in Thursday trading as stocks ended not far off worst levels. AI capex/ROI scrutiny seemed to be back in play, even as OpenAI walked back comments from yesterday about government guarantees on debt to finance AI infrastructure buildout.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, though stocks ended off best levels in a late afternoon slide, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 48bps, 37bps, and 65bps respectively following Tuesday's big decline. Some note of some skepticism from SCOTUS in today's oral arguments in the IEEPA tariff case. October's ADP private payrolls printed at 42K, above consensus, and ISM services came in at 52.4, well ahead of consensus and September's read, hitting its highest headline since February.

US equities were lower in Tuesday trading as stocks ended just off worst levels. Some of today's weakness seemed to be pinned on valuation concerns, flagging comments from Wall Street CEOs at a summit in Hong Kong.

US equities were mixed in Monday trading. Stocks didn't do much as the market dealt with a number of moving pieces. In macro news, October's ISM manufacturing missed, with the production index falling into contraction territory.

US equities were mostly higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq capped off a third-straight weekly gain, though the small-cap Russell 2000 was down for the first time in four weeks. Upside this week was tabbed in large part to positive Big Tech earnings takeaways and more momentum around the AI secular growth narrative. The rally also came despite a modest repricing toward a flatter Fed rate cut path.

US equities were mostly lower in Thursday trading near their worst levels, although the S&P500 and Nasdaq are both still on pace for weekly gains. Big tech earnings were in focus, highlighting the elevated capex levels that are being seen as crucial for the broader AI trade

US equities finished mostly lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 16bps, the S&P500 flat, and the Nasdaq +55bps. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bp at their October meeting, with the economic summary noting activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, the labor market had seen slower job gains, but that the unemployment rate has remained low. September pending-home sales were unchanged m/m vs consensus for a 90bps increase. Nvidia extended a big Tuesday rally on Trump comments that he will discuss Blackwell chips in the upcoming meeting with China's Xi on Thursday.

US equities finished mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though came off best levels into the close. There were more headlines about easing US-China trade tensions as the market gets more comfortable with the escalate to de-escalate narrative. There was more strategic M&A today following more than $80B dollars in announced deals on Monday.

US equities finished higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, ending near best levels. The big focus today was on US-China trade de-escalation after weekend updates about a "framework" deal to avoid the large threatened tariff hike. The peak week of Q3 earnings season is ahead with about 36% of the S&P 500 scheduled to report.

US equities were higher this week with S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and DJIA all setting new record highs. Big tech was mostly higher with AMZN the standout, while TSLA lagged the pack. Other outperformers included semis, energy equipment, casinos, department, stores, hotels, chemicals, machinery, and A&D. Underperformers included consumer staples, utilities, telecoms, entertainment, railways, trucking, and precious metals miners.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading. Stocks were firmer with the path of least resistance still higher on Fed easing, solid macro backdrop, double-digit earnings growth and elevated retail impulse. The White House confirmed there is a scheduled Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea next Thursday, though the New York Times also came out with a report that the US may launch a Section 301 investigation into China's noncompliance with the 2020 trade deal.

US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, though ended off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 71bps, 53bps, and 93bps respectively. Easiest excuse for today's downside largely tagged to potential escalation in US-China trade tensions. Earnings saw high-profile disappointments from Netflix and Texas Instruments, with high bar for some of the AI power theme names, and additional reprieve from recent credit concerns from some financial reporters. Treasury's auction of $13B in 20Y notes was well received, stopping through by 1.2bp, though foreign demand was below recent averages.

US equities were mixed in somewhat choppy Tuesday trading, though indices are a bit off of their best levels. Outperformers included life sciences, A&D, electricals/multis, apparel, homebuilders, beverages, credit cards, machinery, auto suppliers, cruise lines, hotels, GSEs, and media. Overall earnings takeaways remain fairly positive and beat rates are still very elevated.

US equities were sharply higher in Monday trading as stocks ended just a bit off best levels. A risk-on session to start the week was tabbed to a few developments. And a much busier earnings calendar this week with 90 S&P 500 companies set to report.

Major US indices posted solid gains this week, rebounding from last Friday's session that saw the worst S&P daily performance since April amid flaring US-China trade tensions. Signs of US-China de-escalation boosted markets Monday, and by Friday Trump said his proposal for 100% tariffs on China was not sustainable. A large volume of Fedspeak had little impact on market expectations for two 25 bp cuts through year-end.

US equities close lower in Thursday trading, ending off worst levels, but major indices are still on track for solid weekly gains. There was some focus on the weakness in regional banks, and AI momentum was mixed on the day.

US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading as stocks posted modest gains in an up-and-down session, with the Dow Jones closing down 4bps, while the S&P500, and Nasdaq finished up 40bps and 97bps respectively. A few moving pieces today, including the continued ratcheting up of US-China trade angst, buy-the-dip optimism, earnings tailwinds, pickup in M&A, and focus on dovish Powell commentary yesterday. October Empire State manufacturing survey beat, posting third positive read in past four months.

US equities mostly higher in Tuesday afternoon trading, near best levels after shaking off some early-session weakness. Equities largely in positive territory after a more risk-off stance at the open amid still-volatile trade headlines and following Monday's big bounce. September NFIB small business optimism index dropped to 98.8 from prior 100.8

US equities were higher in Monday trading, though stocks ended a bit off best levels. Upside today has been tabbed to de-escalation of US and China trade tensions after Trump's Friday threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. AI is another piece of today's upside after the latest OpenAI deal, this time with Broadcom.

Stocks were lower after a Friday selloff pushed the major averages into the red for the week, with the major averages all off for the second week in the past three. The Friday pullback was tabbed to rising trade and tariff tensions between the US and China. AI was the other area of focus this week, as the AI secular growth narrative was helped by the announcement that OpenAI will buy $300B dollars of computing power from AMD in the next five years, while having the option to purchase up to a 10% stake in the chipmaker over time.

Stocks pulled back after another record-setting session on Wednesday. No meaningful change to the constellation of market's moving pieces, though perhaps some added attention to risks of some bullish themes. Still no progress on the US government shutdown.

US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing flat, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 58bps and 112bps respectively, the latter two notching fresh records, and today's upside largely tabbed to a rebound in the AI optimism trade. Nothing meaningful out of the release of September's FOMC minutes. Treasury's auction of $39B in 10-year notes tailed by 0.3 bp, with a notable dropoff in bid-to-cover and foreign demand vs last month. Nvidia will reportedly invest $2B of equity in xAI as part of a ~$20B fund raise.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, though off worst levels. Select tech underperformance the big story. Latest NY Fed consumer survey showed slight rise in year-ahead inflation expectations, though near-term optimism improved and some signals of better labor-market outlook.

US equities finished mostly higher in quiet Monday trading. It was a very uneventful session with the path of least resistance still tilted to the upside amid the catalyst vacuum. It's quiet on the economic calendar this week, but busy in terms of Fedspeak.

US equities were higher this week, more than recovering last week's losses. The government shutdown kept markets in a catalyst vacuum this week, but optimism held on broader expectations of only a temporary labor slowdown coupled with Fed rate easing prospects. September ADP payrolls fell 32K, the weakest since March of 2023, while August was revised down to a slight loss, reinforcing softening labor momentum and bolstering expectations for two more Fed cuts this year.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, improving off mid-morning lows with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all logging new record closes. Ongoing government shutdown was the big headline focus, though market has thus far largely viewed as more noise than news. Senate to vote again tomorrow on GOP's seven-week stopgap, and if that fails no more votes likely until at least Monday.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, nearing best levels. The ADP report was the latest high-profile data point highlighting the softening labor market following Tuesday's JOLTS report. Elsewhere, the Senate again failed to pass the latest CR attempt to end the government shutdown.

US equities finished mostly higher in Tuesday trading, ending near session highs. Looming government shutdown has received a lot of attention. August JOLTS job openings beat, while July print revised higher.

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, coming off worst levels in the last half hour of trading. A big focus today was on the looming government shutdown, with Trump meeting Republican and Democratic leaders at the White House. On the economic front, August pending-home sales were up 4.0% month over month, well ahead of consensus.

Major US equity indices finished lower this week, but came off worst levels in broadly higher Friday trading. Investors slightly dialed back expectations for two more 25 bp Fed rate cuts this year, with some economic data generally arguing against the economic slowdown thesis. After a relatively quiet period, trade-headline volatility burst back in at week's end, with Trump announcing via social media a set of sectoral tariffs on imports of patented drugs, heavy trucks, and select furniture products.

US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, though ended off worst levels with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 38bps, 50bps, and 50bps respectively. August durable goods orders rose 2.9% m/m, initial jobless claims printed at 218K, better than consensus, and final Q2 GDP was revised up to a 3.8% annualized rate. Oracle was a high-profile laggard following an initiation with a sell rating and news it will share part of a 45% stake in TikTok.

US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, though finished off their worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 37bps, 28bps, and 33bps respectively. New home sales for August came in well ahead of estimates, rising to its fastest annualized pace since January 2022. Treasury auction of $70B of 5-year notes saw a slight tail. Alibaba jumped after disclosing it will ramp up its AI investment. Micron finished lower as better than expected results failed to meet a high bar.