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4 episodes with q2 gdp
3 episodes with q2 gdp
3 episodes with q2 gdp
While investors may now better understand President Trump's trade strategy, the economic consequences of tariffs remain unclear. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Michael Zezas and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen offer guidance on the data they are watching.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Michael Zezas: Today ongoing effects of tariffs on the U.S. economy. It is Friday, August 1st at 8am in New York. So, Michael, lots of news over the past couple of weeks about the U.S. making trade agreements with other countries. It's certainly dominated client conversations we've had, as I'm assuming it's probably dominated conversations for you as well. Michael Gapen: Yeah certainly a topic that never goes away. It keeps on giving at this point in time. And I guess, Michael, what I would ask you is, what do you make of the recent deals? Does it reduce uncertainty in your mind? Does it leave uncertainty elevated? What's your short-term outlook for trade policy? Michael Zezas: Yeah, I think it's fair to say that we've reduced the range of potential outcomes in the near term around tariff rates. But we haven't done anything to reduce longer term uncertainties in U.S. trade policy. So, consider, for example, over the last couple of weeks, we have an agreement with Japan and an agreement with Europe – two pretty substantial trading partners – where it appears, the tariff rate that's going to be applied is something like 15 percent. And when you stack up these deals on one another, it looks like we're going to end up in an average effective tariff rate from the U.S. range of kind of 15 to 20 percent. And if you think back a couple of months, that range was much wider and we were potentially talking about levels in the 25 to 30 percent range. So, in that sense, investors might have a bit of a respite from the idea of kind of massive uncertainty around trade policy outcomes. However, longer term, these agreements really just are kind of principles that are set out for behavior, and there's lots of trip wires that could create future potential escalations. So, for example, with the Europe deal, part of the deal is that Europe will commit to purchase a substantial amount of U.S. energy. There's obvious questions as to whether or not the U.S. can actually supply that amidst its own energy needs that are rising substantially over the course of the next year. So, could we end up in a situation where six months to a year from now if those purchases haven't been made – the U.S. sort of presses forward and the administration threatens to re-escalate tariffs again. Really hard to know, but the point is these arrangements have lots of contingencies and other factors that could lead to re-escalation. But it's fair to say, at least in the near term, that we're in a landing place that appears to be somewhat smaller in terms of the range of potential outcomes. Now, I think a question for investors is going to be – how do we assess what the effects of that have been, right? Because is it fair to say that the economic data that we've received so far maybe isn't fully telling the story of the effects that are being felt quite yet. Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think that's completely right. We've always had the view that it would take several months or more just for tariffs to show up in inflation. And if tariffs primarily act as a tax on the consumer, you have to apply that tax first before economic activity would moderate. So, we've long been forecasting that inflation would begin to pick up in June. We saw a little of that. But it would accelerate through the third quarter, kind of peaking around the August-September period. So, I'd say we've seen the first signs of that, Michael, but we need obviously follow through evidence that it's happening. So, we do expect that in the July, August and September inflation reports, you'll see a lot more evidence of tariffs pushing goods prices higher. So, we'll be dissecting all the details of the CPI looking for evidence of direct effects of tariffs, primarily on goods prices, but also some services prices. So, I'd put that down as the first marker, and we've seen some, early evidence on that. The second then, obviously, is the economy's 70 percent consumption. Tariffs act as a regressive tax on low- and middle-income consumers because non-discretionary purchases are a larger portion of their consumption bundle and a lot of goods prices are as well. Upper income households tend to spend relatively more money on leisure and recreation services. So, we would then expect growth in private consumption, primarily led by lower and middle-income spending softening. We think the consumer would slow down. But into the end of the year. Those are the two main markers that I would point to. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, I think this is really important because there's certainly this narrative amongst clients that we talk to that markets may have already moved on from this. Or investors may have already priced in the effects – or lack thereof – of some of this tariff escalation. Now we're about to get some real evidence from economic data as to whether or not that view and those assumptions are credible. Michael Gapen: That's right. Where we were initially on April 2nd after Liberation Day was largely embargo level tariffs. And if those stayed in place, trade volumes and activity and financial market asset values would've collapsed precipitously. And they were for a few weeks, as you know, but then we dialed it back and got out of that. So, yeah, we would say it's wrong to conclude that the economy , has absorbed these tariffs already and that they won't have,, a negative effect on economic activity. We think they will just in the base case where tariffs are high, but not too high, it just takes a while for that to happen. Michael Zezas: And of course, all of that's kind of core to our multi-asset outlook right now where a slowing economy, even with higher recession probabilities can still support risk assets. But of course, that piece of it is going to be very complicated if the economic data ends up being worse than you suspect. Now, any evidence you've seen so far? For example, we had a GDP report earlier this week. Any evidence from that data as to where things might go over the next few months?Michael Gapen: Yeah, well, another data point on trade policy and trade policy uncertainty really causing a lot of volatility in trade flows. So, if you recall, there's big front running of tariffs in the first quarter. Imports were up about 37 percent on the quarter; that ended in the second quarter, imports were down 30 percent. So net trade was a big drag on growth in the first quarter. It was a big boost to growth in the second. But we think that's largely noise. So, what I would say is we've probably level set import and export volumes now. So, do trade volumes from here begin to slow? That's an unresolved question. But certainly, the large volatility in the trade and inventory data in Q1 and Q2 GDP numbers are reflective of everything that you're saying about the risks around trade policy and elevated trade policy uncertainty. Second, though, I would say, because we started out the quarter with Liberation Day tariffs, the business sector, clearly – in our mind anyway – clearly responded by delaying activity. Equipment spending was only up 4 to 5 percent on the quarter. IP was up about 6 percent. Structures was down 10 percent. So, for all the narrative around AI-related spending, there wasn't a whole lot of spending on data centers and power generation in the second quarter.So, what you speak to about the need to reduce some trade policy uncertainty, but also your long run trade policy uncertainty remains elevated? I would say we saw evidence in the second quarter that all of that slowed down capital spending activity. Let's see if the One Big Beautiful Bill act can be a catalyst on that front, whether animal spirits can come back. But that's the other thing I would point to is that, business spending was weak and even though the headline GDP number was 3 percent, that's mainly a trade volatility number. Final sales to domestic purchasers, which includes consumption and business spending, was only up 1.1 percent in the quarter. So, the economy's moderating; things are cooling. I think trade policy and trade policy uncertainty is a big part of that story.Michael Zezas: Got it. So maybe this is something of a handoff here where my team had been really, really focused and investors have been really, really focused on the decision-making process of the U.S. administration around tariffs. And now your team's going to lead us through understanding the actual impacts. And the headline numbers around economic data are important, but probably even more important is the underlying. Is that fair? Michael Gapen: I think that's fair. I think as we move into the third quarter, like between now and when the Fed meets in, September, again, they'll have a few more inflation reports, a few more employment reports. We're going to learn a lot more than about what the Fed might do. So, I think the activity data and the Fed will now become much more important over the next several months than where we've been the past several months, which is about, has been about announcements around trade. Michael Zezas: All right. Well then, we look forward to hearing more from you and your team in the coming months. Well Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk to me. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.
In this week's episode of the Rich Habits Radar, Robert Croak and Austin Hankwitz walk you through Meta and Microsoft's $150B CapEx guidance, what drove a +3% Q2 GDP result, and the Fed's expectations for interest rates through the rest of the year. ---
Episode 638: Neal and Toby talk about the latest Q2 GDP report that shows the US economy is groovin' along. Then, the Fed holds rates steady despite President Trump's pressure to lower interest rates. Also, Meta excites Wall Street with its big promise of assembling a ‘superintelligence' AI team. Meanwhile, Build your Range Rover Sport at RangeRover.com/US/Sport Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow
Today on the Top News in 10, we cover: Quarter 2 GDP has the Trump team exultant and Senator Chuck Schumer furious. Fed. Chairman Jerome Powell continues to keep interest rates high despite opposition from his own governors. Nancy Pelosi loses it over insider trading questions. Subscribe to The Tony Kinnett Cast: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLjMHBev3NsoV3kHckydY58R7TaYsizl45 Don't forget our other shows: Virginia Allen's Problematic Women: https://www.dailysignal.com/problematic-women Bradley Devlin's The Signal Sitdown: https://www.dailysignal.com/the-signal-sitdown Follow The Daily Signal: X: https://x.com/DailySignal Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thedailysignal/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheDailySignalNews/ Truth Social: https://truthsocial.com/@DailySignal YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/DailySignal Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/TheDailySignal Thanks for making The Daily Signal Podcast your trusted source for the day's top news. Subscribe on your favorite podcast platform and never miss an episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 120mil Soybean Acres3:38 Soybean Selloff4:51 Excessive Rain?7:50 Ethanol Production8:58 GDP and the Haters
The initial Q2 2025 GDP growth number was just released and it beat expectations handily, coming in at a "strong" 3.0%But...when looking just a little bit beneath the surface, the data doesn't look as impressive as on first glance. For example, the biggest contributor by far to the "beat" was shrinking inventories relative to the massive Q1 pre-orders that were made as corporations front-ran the Trump tariffs.So, just as the negative Q1 GDP number wasn't truly as bad as it seemed, similarly the Q2 number isn't as robust as the headline suggests.The team from New Harbor Financial and I dig into what the true reality likely is, as well as discuss the latest FOMC release, the tremendous amount of speculation in the markets today, and the latest price action in gold, silver and Bitcoin.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#economy #federalreserve #gdp _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
US equity futures are firmer with S&P up ~1%. Asia was mixed and European markets opened higher. The market focus remained on post-FOMC reactions and trade actions. Powell reiterated data-dependent stance on rate path in months ahead. Trump announced a South Korea trade deal with a 15% tariff that will also apply to autos and new investment commitments of $350B in US LNG, while threatening a 25% tariff on India. Trump also watered down 50% Brazil tariffs. Economic data showed Q2 GDP growth and ADP payrolls both beating forecasts, while core PCE inflation accelerated. China PMIs showed unexpected further deterioration in manufacturing and services, reinforcing concerns over domestic demand.Companies Mentioned: AbbVie, Atai Life Sciences, JD.com, CECONOMY, CSX Corp
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan host the RiskReversal Podcast and discuss various market trends and economic indicators, focusing on recent earnings reports, the Federal Reserve's monetary policies, and geopolitical factors affecting the market. They analyze the implications of Q2 GDP growth, inflation targets, and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The conversation covers Fed Chair Powell's upcoming press conference, the impact of tariffs and trade talks with China and other nations, and the role of long-term interest rates. The episode also highlights companies' earnings reactions, market volatility, and the outlook for future economic growth. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media
Fed Decision and Market Reactions - July 30th Recap In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel recaps the outcomes of the recent Federal Reserve meeting held over the past two days. The Fed decided to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, which led to mixed reactions in the market. Despite initial market rallies, comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell led to a reversal, resulting in a net loss for the DOW and modest movements in the S&P and Nasdaq. Significant data discussed includes the better-than-expected Q2 GDP figures and fluctuating private payroll and housing sales data. Brian also touches on the historical context of industrial production and productivity growth post-2008 financial crisis. The episode closes with a Q&A segment, addressing the broader economic trends and their implications. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:08 Fed Meeting Insights and Market Reactions 01:51 Economic Calendar Highlights 04:11 Industrial Production and Productivity Post-Financial Crisis 05:30 Q&A and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Stocks hovering around record highs ahead of a Fed decision and key report cards out of Big Tech: Sara Eisen and David Faber broke down the latest on the data front (Q2 GDP, new payrolls data, and pending home sales at the top of the hour) along with some new commentary around prices and tariffs from consumer-facing earnings. RBC Tech analyst Brad Erickson broke down his bull case for Meta ahead of results tonight, while former Fed President Esther George discussed her predictions when it comes to Fed Chair Powell and rates. Plus: the view from the C-Suite… This hour: the CEO of pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline talked her expectations for tariffs on the industry; hear the CEO of Starbucks' take on competition, as same-store sales there disappoint; the CEO of Hershey joined the team for her last broadcast interview in the role with the her latest on the consumer, M&A expectations, and legacy; and more from the CEO of Palo Alto as the company announces plans to acquire CyberArk for ~$25B. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
David Faber and Jim Cramer kicked off a big show with Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol in a "First on CNBC" interview on the company's quarterly results and turnaround plan. Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora and CyberArk Software Founder and Executive Chairman Udi Mokady appeared on the program to discuss their companies' $25 billion merger deal.National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett joined the show with White House reaction to stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP, as well as views on tariffs and the Fed on rate decision day for the central bank. Also in focus: Earnings parade winners and losers, more woes for Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
US equities were mostly lower in Wednesday trading, though stocks finished off worst levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 down 38bps and 12bps, while the Nasdaq finished up 15bps. July FOMC meeting ended with a rate hold at 4.25-4.50%, as expected, while two Fed Governors dissented, the first two-dissent meeting since 1993. First look at Q2 GDP of 3.0% better than 2% consensus, and highest since Q3 2024. With nearly half of the S&P500 having reported Q2 results, blended growth rate stands at 6.8% vs the 4.9% expected at the end of the quarter.
S&P Futures are displaying gains this morning with earnings and economic data being the key themes for today. On the economic front, the first reading of U.S. Q2 GDP will be released this morning and is expected to display growth. In the afternoon, the Fed will release a monetary policy statement. Fed Chairman Powell will likely display a dovish tone in his press conference. The U.S. and China concluded their recent two-day trade talks in Stockholm without reaching a definitive agreement to extend the tariff truce currently set to expire on August 12, 2025. Both sides described the meetings as "constructive,". The responsibility now lies with President Trump to decide whether to approve an extension of the tariff pause. PANW is said to be close to acquiring CYBR in a $20B deal. Figma (FIG) IPO is said to be 40x oversubscribed. On the earnings front, QRVO, HUM, STNG, SBUXVRT & GEHC are higher after announcements. MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, LRCX & HOOD are all releasing earnings after the bell today.
Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti dive into the Q2 GDP data that showed a nice surprise even as Trump's tariffs hit. With a strong GDP does that mean the economy is doing better than expected? Todd Lutsky joins the show for his weekly segment, Ask Todd. This week Todd shares the first step to take if you failed to plan for medicaid till the last minute.
In Podcast Ep. 145, we dive into the stark transformation of the Democratic Party since the 1990s, with a monologue exposing how Democrats have abandoned the middle class for an elite-driven agenda. We analyze the robust Q2 GDP growth, debunking the doom-and-gloom narratives pushed by figures like Chuck Schumer and Amy Klobuchar. Next, we uncover the anti-Trump firing of April Doss at the NSA. We then tackle Hamas propaganda, spotlighting how outlets like The New York Times and BBC once again falsely portray Israel as starving children. Finally, we explore the irony of leftists comparing Sydney Sweeney's American Eagle ad to eugenics, while supporting Planned Parenthood, founded by a founder of the eugenics movement, Margaret Sanger. Join us for a hard-hitting discussion on politics, economics, and media bias. Please take a moment to rate and review the show and then share the episode on social media. You can find me on Facebook, X, Instagram, GETTR, TRUTH Social and YouTube by searching for The Alan Sanders Show. And, consider becoming a sponsor of the show by visiting my Patreon page!!
Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news - despite the US tariff news flooding the zone - the rest of the world economy is find a way to carry on.But first we should note that a 15% tariff deal seems to have been concluded between the EU and the US but one that excludes drugs and aluminium. It looks very like the Japanese deal. And the tariff tussle between China and the US looks like it has been extended another 90 days. The pressure will be on European and Japanese companies to become 15% more efficient, but US companies will relax, allowed to be 15% less efficient in their home markets. In the intermediate term this won't be good for global US competitiveness.In a look ahead this coming week, we will get our usual New Zealand monthly business and consumer sentiment survey updates. And our big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ accentuated because it is end of quarter data. In Australia, it will be all about retail trade and inflation metrics.And Wall Street will be very busy with many more large companies releasing earnings.But the big interest rate influence will be from the central bank decisions from the US (no change expected), Japan (no change), and Canada (also no change). In all three cases the real interest will be on their commentary.Underlying all this will be July PMIs from most major economies, plus more Q2 GDP data, and many inflation updates.Over the weekend China released industrial profits data to June. They reported another slide, down -4.3% from June a year ago, the second straight monthly decline, amid persistent deflation pressures and growing trade uncertainty. State-owned enterprises experienced steeper losses while profit growth in the private sector slowed markedly. Profit gains were recorded in many sectors but one interesting one was in agriculture where profits were up more than +20%.In Russia, and as expected, they cut their policy rate by -200 bps to 18%. They signaled another cut is likely in 2025. They see disinflation on the rise, and household consumption lower. Part of that is due to the size of the diaspora of working aged men trying to avoid the death trap of the attempted invasion of Ukraine.In Europe, the ECB's survey of professional forecasters shows they don't expect much change in the coming year with things constrained by trade questions. They see inflation easing slightly, mainly due to the tariff effects, but GDP growth slightly stronger in the short term.The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany edged up in July from June, to the highest level since May 2024. But the report was still full of cautious sentiment.In the US and as expected durable goods orders fell back in June after the May spike. Apart from the aircraft and defense sectors, it remained pretty ho-hum. New orders rose just +0.1%. Non-defense non-aircraft orders for capital goods fell when a rise was anticipated.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, down -US$2 from Saturday.American oil prices have stayed softish at just on US$65/bbl with the international Brent price is still at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.2 USc and up +10 bps from Saturday and up almost +½c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are stable at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7, unchanged from Saturday but up +20 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,210 and up +2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
In this week's episode of China Insider, Miles Yu reviews Taiwan's ten-day long Han Kuang military exercise, involving civilian drills and military training to prepare for a potential invasion and counter ongoing PLA gray zone operations. Next, Miles covers the "800 Brother" story trending across Chinese social media and internet forums as the popular worker wage movements maintain their current momentum on a national scale. Lastly, Miles digs into China's reported 5.2% GDP growth over the second quarter of this year, and examines the historical efficacy of China's National Bureau of Statistics' economic analysis and reporting. China Insider is a weekly podcast project from Hudson Institute's China Center, hosted by China Center Director and Senior Fellow, Dr. Miles Yu, who provides weekly news that mainstream American outlets often miss, as well as in-depth commentary and analysis on the China challenge and the free world's future.
S&P futures are pointing to a higher open today, up +0.3%. Asian equities tilted higher on Tuesday, while European markets are also edging higher in early trades. China's Q2 GDP grew +5.2% y/y, slightly exceeding expectations, while industrial production rose +6.8%, outperforming forecasts. However, retail sales disappointed at +4.8%, raising concerns about weak consumer demand. Market sentiment improved following reports that Nvidia received U.S. approval to resume exports of its H20 AI chips to China, boosting optimism in the tech sector. Attention is now shifting to upcoming Q2 earnings and U.S. CPI data. Major banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are set to report their earnings today. Companies Mentioned: NVIDIA, Cavco Industries, Accenture
Singapore’s economy just delivered a 4.3% year-on-year growth in Q2, beating expectations and brushing off recession fears. But what’s really behind the numbers? And can the momentum continue into the second half of the year? Dan Koh chats with Selena Ling, Chief economist & Head, Global Markets Research & Strategy, OCBC to unpack the latest GDP figures, break down the key growth drivers, and explore what this means for businesses, investors, and policy decisions in the months ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Should the United States delist Chinese stocks? At first thought with all the craziness of the trade war it sounds like delisting all the Chinese companies from the American stock markets may be a good idea. It is important to know that there are 286 Chinese companies listed on major US stock exchanges. You'll recognize some of the names like Alibaba, Baidu and JD.com. It is estimated by analysts at Goldman Sachs that US institutional investors currently own about $830 billion worth of Chinese stocks. That is more than two times what the Chinese own of US stocks as that is estimated around $370 billion. But a quick sell off could bring down stock valuations and make it difficult to get out of many of these stocks on both sides. An important piece of information I brought up a couple years ago was the Accountable Act which came to be in 2020. This allows the Securities Exchange Commission to ban foreign companies from trading if American regulators are not allowed to inspect the auditors for three years in a row. I always worry about Chinese companies because of what I call government accounting. They are not held to the same accounting standards there and I believe companies may list financial statements based on what the government tells them. There have been some Chinese companies that delisted themselves rather than going through an audit. I think that tells you quite a bit. My feeling is we should not delist all the Chinese stocks that trade on American stock exchanges under what is known as ADRs, but be sure that the Chinese companies have the same transparency as American companies when it comes to their financial statements. If we can't get that transparency, then those companies should be delisted. Jobs report shows more evidence the economy is in good shape US nonfarm payrolls grew by 177k in the month of April, which easily topped the estimate of 133k. Jobs remained robust in health care as the sector added 51k jobs in the month of April and employment in transportation and warehousing and financial activities was also strong as the groups added 29k and 14k jobs respectively in the month. Other categories like construction, manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, and retail trade saw little or no change in payrolls, while government declined by 9k jobs in the month. Government jobs are now down by 26k since January, but remember employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are still counted as employed. This likely means we will continue to see losses accelerate in this category as the year continues. Negatives in the report included the fact that employment numbers were revised down by a total of 58k in the previous two months. Also, April's reading was lighter than March's reading of 185k, but considering the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, I still see these jobs gains as impressive, especially with all the negativity that people have been discussing. With that said, I still do anticipate weaker numbers in terms of the payroll additions in future months, but if the unemployment rate remains low I don't see that as a problem. On the inflation front, we also got good news with average hourly earnings rising just 3.8%. I see this as a healthy increase that does not put pressure on inflation like when wages were growing over 5% in 2022. Job openings look problematic on the surface In the March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, job openings totaled 7.2 million. This was below February's reading of 7.5 million and the estimate, which also stood at 7.5 million. This is still not super concerning to me. We tend to forget how strong the labor market has been and while we continue to see a softening, there is plenty of room before I see cause for concern. Just for reference, job openings in 2019 averaged approximately 7.2 million, in 2018 they averaged approximately 6.8 million, and in 2017 they averaged approximately 6.2 million. Compare that to where we are today and that should give you more comfort. Another area I saw as positive in the report was the fact that quits totaled 3.3 million, which produced a quit rate of 2.1%. This is important because if people were truly concerned about a major slowdown and thought they would not be able to find work elsewhere, I don't believe they would be quitting their jobs. These quit numbers are still quite close to 2019 levels, which many considered as a very strong economy. That year quits averaged approximately 3.5 million and there was an average quit rate of about 2.3%. Also in the report, we saw layoffs remained quite low at 1.6 million. Back in 2019, layoffs averaged around 1.8 million per month. There is no doubt that uncertainty remains and that will have some impact on businesses and their hiring plans, but in terms of it pushing the economy into a major recession, since we are coming from such a healthy level, I just don't see that happening. Are we in the middle of a recession? The first reading of Q1 GDP showed a decrease of 0.3%. A recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, so some may argue we are half way there. Let us not forget in 2022 we did see two consecutive quarters of declining GDP as Q1 declined 1.4% and Q2 showed an advance estimate that was down 0.9%. After further research the second quarter ended up seeing a total reversal and it is now reported to have actually grown by 0.3%. Even with the difficult start, that year ended with a 2.1% growth rate. We also can't forget that the National Bureau of Economy Research (NBER) makes the official call on recession and they use a broader set of indicators that led them not to declare a recession in 2022. I say all of this because I still believe even if we hit a technical recession, if employment remains strong, I don't believe we would have an “official” recession. I am still unsure that we will even see Q2 GDP decline and we could also see revisions to Q1 that lift it to a positive reading. I say this because if you look at the actual underlying numbers in the report, it is not nearly as bad as the headline decline. On the positive front, consumer spending actually grew 1.8% in the quarter as services showed a nice increase of 2.4%. Also, private domestic investment saw a surge of 21.9%, this was led by investments in equipment as they grew 22.5% in the quarter. You might be asking with numbers like these how did we see a negative GDP? To start, government spending fell 1.4% in the quarter. This was led by a decline of 5.1% in spending by the federal government. The group as a whole ended up subtracting 0.25% from the headline GDP number. While this was impactful, the real reason for the decline in GDP was trade. Companies were trying to get ahead of looming tariffs and imports surged 41.3%. This compared to an increase of just 1.8% for exports. The huge discrepancy caused the trade component of GDP to decrease the headline number by 4.83%! While the economy is no doubt digesting these trade conversations and the tariffs, I still believe the economy is in alright shape when you look at the underlying numbers. I did also want to mention more good news on inflation as the March headline PCE showed an increase of 2.3%, which compares to last month's reading of 2.7% and core PCE came in at just 2.6%, which was a nice decline from February's reading of 3.0%. I believe these numbers will likely increase with the tariffs, but underlying inflation looks to be quite healthy. Financial Planning: Protecting Yourself from Home Title Theft Home title theft is a type of real estate fraud where someone illegally transfers the ownership of your home by forging your name on title documents. This is often done using stolen personal information to file fraudulent deeds with the county recorder's office. Once the title appears to be in their name, the thief may try to take out loans against the property, sell it to an unsuspecting buyer, or use it in other schemes that could put your home and finances at risk. This crime can go undetected for months if property owners aren't actively monitoring their title. Having a mortgage or HELOC on your house can make it more difficult for a thief to steal your title since the bank has a lien against the property, but it is still possible. There are private companies that charge monthly fees to alert you of changes to your home title, but they do not prevent the title from being stolen. You can also purchase home title insurance that will help pay for legal fees if you have to go to court if your title is stolen. Homeowners in San Diego County can access a free alternative called “Owner Alert”. Jordan Marks who is the San Diego County Assessor/Recorder/County Clerk was behind this, and it is a great benefit that all San Diego property owners should take advantage of. This service works by notifying you by email whenever a document is recorded against your property, helping you catch potential fraud early. Signing up is simple and can be done on the San Diego County Assessor's website. You just need your name, email address, and parcel number and it provides the same type of monitoring offered by paid services, making it unnecessary to spend money for peace of mind when this tool is already available for free. Companies Discussed: Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (ZBH), Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture The green new scam is not working the way the people thought it was going to work, Jersey cannot find anyone to make the windmill blades. RFK Jr brings the Federal Reserve into focus, people are now learning the truth about the Fed. Restructure is coming. Elon sends a message that this is not just another 4 year election, if the people do not take back the country it is over. The darkness that people are feeling is the enemy losing. Sometimes you need to walk through the darkness to reach the light. Trump is letting the [DS] players know that he will prosecute each and everyone of them, and he would like to go back the previous election and prosecute those who helped overthrow the US government. (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy Jersey Shore Wind Power Project Stalls After Having A "Hard Time" Finding Someone To Manufacture Turbine Blades one project is having "a hard time finding someone to manufacture blades for its turbines", local radio station NJ 101.5 reported this week. We guess when you focus too much on green virtue signaling and ignore the fact that the country doesn't produce or manufacture anything anymore, there's eventually consequences. The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities has granted Leading Light Wind a pause on its offshore wind project until Dec. 20, as the developers struggle to secure necessary turbine components, the report says. Source: zerohedge.com MF: Carbon Taxes Hurt The Poor; Also The IMF: We Need A Global Carbon Tax The IMF's “Chart of the Week” just dropped, promising a glimpse into how carbon taxes can be “less regressive”, “socially fair” and “economically efficient”. Citing a new research paper, the chart of the week comes from research findings that carbon taxes inordinately penalize the poors, “lower-income groups are affected disproportionately, because they spend a smaller share of their expenditure on products that benefit from exemptions than their higher-income counterparts.” The paper is called Distributional Impacts of Heterogenous Carbon Prices in the EU and looked at European countries, however, the findings around the discrepancy apply anywhere – why? Carbon taxes aren't uniform across all countries, and aren't uniformly applied across all industries – and that leaves differentials and gaps that the IMF claims are being exploited by rich people to the exclusion of low income households. The solution? A global carbon tax. “Therefore, imposing uniform carbon prices both within and across countries would reduce carbon pricing regressivity on household expenditure in the EU” Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1839776574784016495 18% of consumers believe that jobs are “hard to get," the largest share in 4 years. Such deterioration has never occurred outside of recessions. This comes as hiring has declined at the fastest pace since 2008, excluding the pandemic crash. The US job market is turning. Mystery Of Upward GDP Revision Solved: You Are All $500 Billion Richer Now According To A Revised Biden Admin Spreadsheet Bureau of Economic Analysis released the final estimate of Q2 GDP data: as part of the release, Biden's Dept of Commerce run by Gina Raimondo, which also runs the BEA, reported that GDP in since 2020 had been revised markedly higher (with the exception of H2 2023) ... ... even though banks such as Goldman warned of, and expected, a significantly negative revision to historical GDP numbe...
Today's Headlines: The Israeli military recovered the bodies of six hostages in Gaza, who were executed by Hamas just hours before their rescue. Among the victims were three individuals set to be released under a humanitarian deal. The executions were reportedly ordered by Hamas following a prior Israeli rescue mission. The incident led to widespread protests in Israel against Prime Minister Netanyahu, accusing him of delaying a deal to maintain his political power. In related news, the UK temporarily suspended some arms export licenses to Israel over concerns of violations in Gaza. Additionally, the U.S. government seized a plane belonging to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, escalating tensions following a disputed election. In Brazil, Elon Musk's refusal to comply with legal requirements led to a suspension of X. Finally, the U.S. Surgeon General issued a warning about the mental and physical health impacts of parenting, advocating for cultural support, and the U.S. economy saw 3% growth in the second quarter of 2024. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: WA Post: Israelis stage mass protests, general strike as hostages laid to rest Reiters: UK suspends 30 of its 350 arms export licences to Israel AP News: US government seizes plane used by Venezuelan president, citing sanctions violations AP News: Venezuelan judge issues arrest warrant for opposition's former presidential candidate WA Post: Brazilian judge orders suspension of X in dispute with Elon Musk HHS: U.S. Surgeon General Issues Advisory on the Mental Health and Well-Being of Parents NBC News: The U.S. economy grew 3% in the second quarter — faster than initially thought Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage alongside Bridget Schwartz and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Dentist Money™ Show | Financial Planning & Wealth Management
Welcome to Dentist Money Two Cents, a look at the latest financial and economic news from the past week. On this episode, Matt and Rabih review the current major factors impacting the economy, which include the Q2 GDP numbers and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September. They then discuss the continued growth of NVIDIA even in a volatile market. and how they have doubled their revenue in a year. Finally, with the recent Supreme Court ruling on the Student Loan SAVE plan, they address what the next steps for student debt relief might look like. Book a free consultation with a CFP® advisor who only works with dentists. Get an objective financial assessment and learn how Dentist Advisors can help you live your rich life.
Gold closed the week at $2,502 (down $10 since last week) and silver at $28.83 (down about $1). This episode we discuss recent price action, the historic volatility in September and October, and economic weakness from Germany to China. OTHER TOPICS DISCUSSED -US Consumer confidence reaches 6-month high at 103.3 -Q2 GDP numbers revised upward to 3% -US jobless claims about at expectations at 231,000 -German business climate index drops to lowest level since summer 2020 -Chinese retailer Temu's parent company suffers $50b+ market cap wipeout -Key headlines to look out for in week ahead Quote of the Week: "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'" -Sir John Templeton The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week's economic precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms. The links are below. SchiffGold on Instagram: www.instagram.com/schiffgoldnews SchiffGold on Twitter: twitter.com/SchiffGold SchiffGold on Facebook: www.facebook.com/schiffgold SchiffGold's website: www.schiffgold.com The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice.
Ben and Tom talk Nvidia earnings, Q2 GDP revision, and the Harris tax plan. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visithttps://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure
☆ 美國Q2 GDP、上週初領失業金優，9月降1碼？ ☆ 9月上半台股關鍵事件與數據一次看！ ☆ AI光環失色？ #蘋概股 成為台股領頭羊！ ☆ #輝達 股價續跌！黃仁勳曝AI布局、專家給建議！ 馬上加入Line帳號! 獲取更多股票訊息！ LINE搜尋ID：@gp520 -- Hosting provided by SoundOn
Independent analyst Odwa Magwentshu discusses Impala Platinum's results, highlighting how write-downs have pushed the company into a loss. Miyelani Maluleke from Absa CIB previews next week's local Q2 GDP data, questioning how many rate cuts the MPC might deliver. Simon shares insights on how market expectations can overshadow actual results.
Miyelani Maluleke from Absa CIB previews next week's local Q2 GDP data, questioning how many rate cuts the MPC might deliver.
Ben and Tom talk Nvidia earnings, Q2 GDP revision, and the Harris tax plan. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visithttps://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure
Midweek Market Recap and NVIDIA Earnings Breakdown - August 28, 2023 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the performance of the stock market on a relatively uneventful day, with the Dow dropping 159 points, the S&P 500 down by 0.6%, and the NASDAQ falling by 1.12%. Bonds remained unchanged, while the dollar showed slight strength. The highlight of the day was NVIDIA's anticipated earnings, which surpassed expectations but resulted in a stock drop due to high valuations. Looking ahead, Brian previews key data releases for the next day, including initial jobless claims, trade and inventory data, a revision of Q2 GDP, and pending home sales. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:54 NVIDIA Earnings Report 01:18 Upcoming Economic Data 01:59 Conclusion and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Recent market volatility has made headlines, but our Global Chief Economist explains why the numbers aren't as dire as they seem.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about central banks, the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, data and how it drove market volatility.It's Monday, August 12th at 10am in New York.You know, if life were a Greek tragedy, we might call it foreshadowing. But in reality, it was probably just an unfortunate coincidence. The BOJ's website temporarily went down when the policy announcement came out. As it turns out, expectations for the BOJ and the Fed drove the market last week. Going into the BOJ meeting consensus was for a September hike, but July was clearly in play.The market's initial reaction to the decision itself was relatively calm; but in the press conference following the decision, Governor Ueda surprised the markets by talking about future hikes. Some hiking was already priced in, and Ueda san's comments pushed the amount priced in up by another, call it 8 basis points, and it increased volatility.In the aftermath of that market volatility, Deputy Governor Yoshida shifted the narrative again, by stressing that the BOJ was attuned to market conditions and that there was no fundamental change in the BOJ's strategy. But this heightened attention on the BOJ's hiking cycle was a critical backdrop for the US non farm payrolls two days later.The market knew the BOJ would hike, and knew the Fed would cut, but Ueda san's tone and the downside surprise to payrolls ignited two separate but related market risks: A US growth slowdown and the yen carry trade.The Fed's July meeting was the same day as the BOJ decision, and Chair Powell guided markets to a September rate cut. Prior to July, the FOMC was much more focused on inflation after the upside surprises in the first quarter. But as inflation softened, the dual mandate came into a finer balance. The shift in focus to both growth and inflation was not missed by markets; and then payrolls at about 114, 000 in July. Well, that was far from disastrous; but because the print was a miss relative to expectations on the heel of a shift in that focus, the market reaction was outsized.Our baseline view remains a soft landing in the United States; and those details we discussed extensively in our monthly periodical. Now, markets usually trade inflections, but with this cycle, we have tried to stress that you have to look at not just changes, but also the level of the economy. Q2 GDP was at 2.6 per cent. Consumer spending grew at 2.3 per cent. And the three-month average for payrolls was at 170, 000 -- even after the disappointing July print.Those are not terribly frightening numbers. The unemployment rate at 4.3 per cent is still low for the United States. And 17 basis points of that two-tenths rise last month; well, that was an increase in labor force participation. That's hardly the stuff of a failing labor market.So, while these data are backward looking, they are far from recessionary. Markets will always be forward looking, of course; but the recent hard data cannot be ignored. We think the economy is on its way to a soft landing, but the market is on alert for any and all signs for more dramatic weakness.The data just don't indicate any accelerated deterioration in the economy, though. Our FX Strategy colleagues have long said that Fed cuts and BOJ hikes would lead to yen appreciation. But this recent move? It was rapid, to say the least. But if we think about it, the pair really has only come into rough alignment with the Morgan Stanley targets based on just interest rate differentials alone.We also want to stress the fundamentals here for the Bank of Japan as well. We retain our view for cautious rate hikes by the BOJ with the next one coming in January. That's not anything dramatic because over the whole forecast that means that real rates will stay negative all the way through the end of 2025.These themes -- the deterioration in the US growth situation and the appreciation of the yen -- they're not going away anytime soon. We're entering a few weeks of sparse US data, though, where second tier indicators like unemployment insurance claims, which are subject to lots of seasonality, and retail sales data, which tend to be volatile month to month and have had less correlation recently with aggregate spending, well, they're going to take center stage in the absence of other harder indicators.The normalization of inflation and rates in Japan will probably take years, not just months, to sort out. The pace of convergence between the Fed and the BOJ? It's going to continue to ebb and flow. But for now, and despite all the market volatility, we retain our outlook for both economies and both central banks. We see the economic fundamentals still in line with our baseline views.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Positive economic signals continue to surprise observers. Caleb and Liz discuss the factors that pushed second quarter GDP to exceed expectations and what that means for small businesses. Shownotes Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) [BEA] Personal Income and Outlays, June 2024 [BEA]
Join the team discussing the great rotation, Bill Dudley, Q2 GDP numbers, Non farm payrolls and much more!Remember to check out the links below.Token2049 week in Singapore - 16-22 September.https://www.asia.token2049.com/tickets 15% Discount Code: realvisionFREE macro newsletter - https://stenoresearch.com/free/Find out more at www.stenoresearch.com/subscribe Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel RosenvoldFind our Crypto coverage here -https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel:➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah
In this episode of "One Rental at a Time," we delve into the current state of the bond market and its implications for interest rates, with an insightful analysis by Michael Zuber. We explore the potential for rate cuts and their expected timing, along with key economic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment claims, and PMI. Additionally, we review recent earnings reports from major companies like Ford, American Airlines, IBM, and Chipotle, discussing their performance and future outlooks. We also touch on the latest updates in the housing market and how it's reacting to economic conditions and the election cycle. Tune in for a comprehensive overview of the latest financial trends and their impact on real estate investing. Timeline Summary: [00:00] - Importance of monitoring the bond market and potential rate cuts[00:20] - Economic data overview: Q2 GDP growth and unemployment claims[03:30] - PMI and durable goods report: Insights and implications[05:16] - Earnings reports: Ford, American Airlines, IBM, Chipotle, and more[07:57] - Trueflation's latest readings and their significance[08:22] - Updates on the housing market and buyer behavior[09:23] - Upcoming events and accountability groups in the community[10:57] - Announcement of the next "Buying Vegas" episode Links & Resources: One Rental at a Time Closing Remarks: Thanks for tuning in to "One Rental at a Time." If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred platform. Share the podcast with friends and family who might benefit from our real estate investing insights, and leave us a review to help us improve. Follow us on social media for updates and exclusive content. Remember, it's all about doing the work. Happy investing!
US futures are indicating a higher open. European equity markets are trading mixed, following Asian markets finished mixed on Friday. Market attention today is on the advance reading for Q2 GDP, which showed the economy growing at 2.8% q/q, well ahead of the consensus 1.9%. It indicates a healthy consumer and inflation moving in the right direction, which may prompt Fed Chair Powell to take a slightly more hawkish stance. Yen volatility continues, hitting its highest level against the dollar since early May, driven by a hawkish repricing of BOJ rates and a pickup in Fed easing expectations. BoE rate cut pricing is now more than 50% for August and fully priced for two moves of 25 bps by year-end.Companies Mentioned: JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, GE Vernova
The S&P Global Services Index is "great," in contradiction to other eocnomic metrics; the first estimate of Q2 GDP is released today (up 2.8%); this will be revised. Important to note the behavior of GDP prior to past recessions, which are always back-dated. 350-days without a 2% correction, until Wednesday. Bill Dudley is calling for lower interest rates now; Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain the crucial link between consumer confidence and economic performance. Learn how sentiment drives markets and impacts your personal finances: The relationship between financial confidence and spending habits; the effects of market decline on consumer behavior; how sentiment influences economic performance; the role of confidence in personal financial decisions; why sentiment is a key factor in market dynamics. High School photos, Peter Frampton, and mullets; market commentary on watermarking portfolios; to Michael, the market feels like it's "blowing up:" someone is being forced to liquidate positions. SEG-1: 350-days Without Correction...until SEG-2: Confidence is Key for a Thriving Economy SEG-3: Markets Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent SEG-4: The Error in Watermarking Portfolios Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpMR4QMJitc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Interest Rates Are Too High – Blame The Mythical R Star" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/interest-rates-are-too-high-blame-the-mythical-r-star/ "Irrational Exuberance Then And Now" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/irrational-exuberance-then-and-now/ "The Bull Market – Could It Just Be Getting Started?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-bull-market-could-it-just-be-getting-started/ "Can Mega-Capitalization Stocks Continue Their Dominance?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/can-mega-capitalization-stocks-continue-their-dominance/ "Russell Explodes Higher As Rotation Takes Hold" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will the Correction Reach 5%?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jhduZnaAuo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Invest - or not - in a Presidential Election" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLclO1Y9stI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Confidence #FinancialSituation #MarketImpact #Economy #ConsumerSpending #ConsumerSentiment #InvestorSentiment #PortfolioPerformance, #EconomicBehavior #FinancialMarkets #SpendingHabits #MarketDecline #Financial Health #EconomicSentiment #FinancialDecisions #InvestmentConfidence #ConsumerConfidence #MarketSentiment #EconomicImpact #SpendingPatterns #FinancialImpact #Markets #Money #Investing
The S&P Global Services Index is "great," in contradiction to other eocnomic metrics; the first estimate of Q2 GDP is released today (up 2.8%); this will be revised. Important to note the behavior of GDP prior to past recessions, which are always back-dated. 350-days without a 2% correction, until Wednesday. Bill Dudley is calling for lower interest rates now; Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain the crucial link between consumer confidence and economic performance. Learn how sentiment drives markets and impacts your personal finances: The relationship between financial confidence and spending habits; the effects of market decline on consumer behavior; how sentiment influences economic performance; the role of confidence in personal financial decisions; why sentiment is a key factor in market dynamics. High School photos, Peter Frampton, and mullets; market commentary on watermarking portfolios; to Michael, the market feels like it's "blowing up:" someone is being forced to liquidate positions. SEG-1: 350-days Without Correction...until SEG-2: Confidence is Key for a Thriving Economy SEG-3: Markets Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent SEG-4: The Error in Watermarking Portfolios Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpMR4QMJitc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Interest Rates Are Too High – Blame The Mythical R Star" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/interest-rates-are-too-high-blame-the-mythical-r-star/ "Irrational Exuberance Then And Now" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/irrational-exuberance-then-and-now/ "The Bull Market – Could It Just Be Getting Started?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-bull-market-could-it-just-be-getting-started/ "Can Mega-Capitalization Stocks Continue Their Dominance?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/can-mega-capitalization-stocks-continue-their-dominance/ "Russell Explodes Higher As Rotation Takes Hold" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will the Correction Reach 5%?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jhduZnaAuo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Invest - or not - in a Presidential Election" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLclO1Y9stI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Confidence #FinancialSituation #MarketImpact #Economy #ConsumerSpending #ConsumerSentiment #InvestorSentiment #PortfolioPerformance, #EconomicBehavior #FinancialMarkets #SpendingHabits #MarketDecline #Financial Health #EconomicSentiment #FinancialDecisions #InvestmentConfidence #ConsumerConfidence #MarketSentiment #EconomicImpact #SpendingPatterns #FinancialImpact #Markets #Money #Investing
Market Analysis and Sector Performance on July 24th In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel analyzes the market performance for July 24th from West Palm Beach, Florida. The Dow closed 504 points lower, the S&P fell by 2.31%, and the NASDAQ dropped by 3.64%. Significant declines in Google and Tesla stocks driven by earnings misses led to the NASDAQ's poor performance. Despite the downturn, sectors such as energy, staples, utilities, and healthcare saw positive results. Interest rates slightly increased, with the 10-year yield up by three basis points. Brian discusses the yield curve changes and the economic indicators, including slight misses in new home sales and positive PMI report. Looking ahead, the episode mentions upcoming PCE data and the Fed meeting next week, followed by expectations for Q2 GDP revisions and durable goods orders. The VIX index spiked by 22% indicating heightened market volatility. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:54 Sector Performance and Interest Rates 01:56 Economic Data Highlights 02:39 Upcoming Economic Events 03:15 Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Lance Roberts provides a preview of Q2 GDP results, Temp hiring is tapering, and rising credit card delinquencies (because of unemployment) suggesting economic stress. A three year experiment in Universal Basic Income is an epic failure. Google earnings beat estimates, but YouTube's $1B revenue disappoints(!); Tesla puls back 7% on earnings results. Correction is near, but not today. Danny's accident and Life Challenges as investing lessons: Life is cyclical; theimportance of optimism & risk management. Investing in an election cycle: Trump policies & record vs unknowns about Kamala. Markets will quickly adapt to election outcomes and money will flow into apparent areas of beneficial trades. What happens in House and Senate is also key: Markets love gridlock. Tariff talk. Why you don't want to be in Small- and Mid-caps in Recession. Transitioning from saving to spending in retirement: What's your plan? What are your goals? Planning for the eventuality of higher taxes. Having a strategy for spending your retirement nest egg. SEG-1: Universal Basic Income Fail & Markets Flirt w Support SEG-2: How to Invest During Election Cycles SEG-3A: Why You Don't Want to Be in Small- or Mid-caps During Recession SEG-3B: Transitioning from Accumulation to Spending in Retirement SEG-4: Having a Plan for Spending Your Retirement Nest Egg Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLclO1Y9stI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Bull Market – Could It Just Be Getting Started?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-bull-market-could-it-just-be-getting-started/ "Can Mega-Capitalization Stocks Continue Their Dominance?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/can-mega-capitalization-stocks-continue-their-dominance/ "Russell Explodes Higher As Rotation Takes Hold" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "7-24-24 Markets Are Flirting with Support" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi6OS2UxDu4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Bull market Just Getting Started?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eQG_R6DJWQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #2024Election #ElectionCycle #UniversalBasicIncome #Google #Tesla #Q2GDP #Unemployment #CreditCardDelinquencies #SmallCap #MidCap #Recession #Retirement #RetirementNestEgg #RetirementPlanning #RetirementSpending #Markets #Money #Investing
Lance Roberts provides a preview of Q2 GDP results, Temp hiring is tapering, and rising credit card delinquencies (because of unemployment) suggesting economic stress. A three year experiment in Universal Basic Income is an epic failure. Google earnings beat estimates, but YouTube's $1B revenue disappoints(!); Tesla puls back 7% on earnings results. Correction is near, but not today. Danny's accident and Life Challenges as investing lessons: Life is cyclical; theimportance of optimism & risk management. Investing in an election cycle: Trump policies & record vs unknowns about Kamala. Markets will quickly adapt to election outcomes and money will flow into apparent areas of beneficial trades. What happens in House and Senate is also key: Markets love gridlock. Tariff talk. Why you don't want to be in Small- and Mid-caps in Recession. Transitioning from saving to spending in retirement: What's your plan? What are your goals? Planning for the eventuality of higher taxes. Having a strategy for spending your retirement nest egg. SEG-1: Universal Basic Income Fail & Markets Flirt w Support SEG-2: How to Invest During Election Cycles SEG-3A: Why You Don't Want to Be in Small- or Mid-caps During Recession SEG-3B: Transitioning from Accumulation to Spending in Retirement SEG-4: Having a Plan for Spending Your Retirement Nest Egg Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLclO1Y9stI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Bull Market – Could It Just Be Getting Started?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-bull-market-could-it-just-be-getting-started/ "Can Mega-Capitalization Stocks Continue Their Dominance?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/can-mega-capitalization-stocks-continue-their-dominance/ "Russell Explodes Higher As Rotation Takes Hold" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "7-24-24 Markets Are Flirting with Support" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi6OS2UxDu4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Bull market Just Getting Started?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eQG_R6DJWQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #DonaldTrump #KamalaHarris #2024Election #ElectionCycle #UniversalBasicIncome #Google #Tesla #Q2GDP #Unemployment #CreditCardDelinquencies #SmallCap #MidCap #Recession #Retirement #RetirementNestEgg #RetirementPlanning #RetirementSpending #Markets #Money #Investing
US equities finished higher in relatively quiet Monday trading, with the S&P and Nasdaq rebounding after last week's declines. Politics dominated the headlines following Biden's exit from the presidential race, though there was also skepticism about whether it provides a meaningful shift in the near-term election calculus. Flash US PMIs, new home sales, Q2 GDP, durable goods orders and PCE inflation are the notable releases for the week.
In this episode, we dive into the current state of the housing market, focusing on the record number of homes underwater. Join me as we explore some fascinating stats from the Dallas-Fort Worth area, delve into the week's key economic reports and earnings, and discuss what these trends mean for investors and homeowners alike. I'll also share insights on how you can capitalize on a slow market to find great deals and build wealth. Episode Highlights: [00:00] - Introduction and CrowdStrike global outage. [01:51] - Key economic numbers and expectations for existing home sales. [03:47] - Mortgage applications and the slow market advantage for investors. [06:12] - Q2 GDP and other critical economic reports. [07:52] - Analysis of the record number of homes underwater. [08:50] - Dallas-Fort Worth housing inventory and pricing trends. [12:09] - Strategy for finding motivated sellers and making great offers. [15:12] - Special shout-out to our school community and upcoming accountability groups. Links & Resources: One Rental at a Time Follow on Twitter for more updates and insights. Closing Remarks: If you enjoyed this episode, please rate, follow, and share our podcast. Your support helps us bring more valuable content to you. Let's make the most of this market together! Happy investing!
Markets take a sharp turn | June activity data surprised to the upside, but Q2 GDP unlikely to impress | Emerging investment opportunities across the pond as the U.K. enters a period of stability Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial Send us your questions and requests at: information@rosenbergresearch.com In This Episode The Week in Review (0:40) — The market shifts its focus from growth to value — but don't call it the “Trump Trade” The Week Ahead (7:05) — Flash PMIs and U.S. Q2 GDP The Spotlight (9:00) — A bullish view on (most) U.K. assets following a historic election Canada Corner (16:52) — Bank of Canada prepares a second cut
S&P futures are indicating a higher open, up +0.2%, as markets continue to process the political implications of the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. Market's attention today is on the takeaways from China's Q2 GDP and June activity data, which highlight persistent weakness in domestic demand and the property market. The weaker-than-expected GDP has renewed doubts about the achievability of the government's annual GDP target of ~5%, leading to calls for stronger policy support. Companies Mentioned: KKR, Verizon, Match Group, Microsoft, Alphabet, Lineage Logistics
Former U.S. President Donald Trump survives an assassination attempt while speaking at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania ahead of his formal presidential nomination at the GOP convention in Milwaukee. President Joe Biden makes a televised address to the nation condemning the shooting, asking Americans to ‘cool down' political rhetoric. In China, Q2 GDP falls short of expectations slowing to 4.7 per cent amid lingering consumer demand weakness. Google parent Alphabet is reportedly in advanced talks to swoop for cyber security firm Wiz for approximately $23bn, which would be its largest ever acquisition.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The US economy appears to be slowing down. Final Q1 GDP growth came in at just 1.4% and, as of this recording, Q2 GDP is currently estimated to be little better, at 1.5%. Retail sales for May, the most recent data we have, only grew at 0.1%. And unemployment is starting to tick up, too, rising last week to 4.1%. Now, none of these stats are particularly worrisome on their own. But together, are they signalling rockier economic times could like ahead? To find out, we have the good fortunate to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #jobs #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
Lance previews Q2 GDP estimates: The lag effect is showing up in GDP Estimate revisions, as the economy slows. The difference betweeen Inflation vs Deflation: The rate of change is slowing, but prices are remaining high. Commentary on interest rate behavior at end of Quarter; quarter-end rebalancing and dividend payments. The next chapter in the saga of the Roberts' Rental house; kudo's to Abacus Electrical, raspberries to Centerpoint Energy. The best way to beat earnings estimates: Lower the bar for expectations. The normal beat rate is about 75%. What is the true value of a financial advisor? Not to be confused with a portfolio manager (Doctors vs Coaches). A brief discussion of Tex-Mex, BBQ, and Houston as a food mecca; the value of a financial planner to a family. SEG-1: Inflation vs Deflation - Which Way, Interest Rates? SEG-2A: The Roberts' Rental Saga, Pt-2 SEG-2B: How to Beat Earnings Estimates SEG-3: The Value of a Financial Advisor, Pt-1 SEG-4: The Value of a Financial Advisor, Pt-2 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bG6OzGjibtM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Earnings Bar Lowered As Q2 Reports Begin" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-bar-lowered-as-q2-reports-begin/ "The Confidence Dichotomy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Interest Rates are a Function of Inflation and Economic Growth" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuGhZlS_1J0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Confidence Dichotomy" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QF2-xOKv68c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #EarningsGrowth #FinancialCrisis #LoweredEarningsBar #CompanyPerformance #Expectations #StrongEarnings #QuarterResults #FinancialAnalysis #EarningsEstimates #Inflation #Deflation #FinancialAdvice #FinancialAdvisorValue #PortfolioManager #RentalProperty #HomeOwnership #Markets #Money #Investing
Lance previews Q2 GDP estimates: The lag effect is showing up in GDP Estimate revisions, as the economy slows. The difference betweeen Inflation vs Deflation: The rate of change is slowing, but prices are remaining high. Commentary on interest rate behavior at end of Quarter; quarter-end rebalancing and dividend payments. The next chapter in the saga of the Roberts' Rental house; kudo's to Abacus Electrical, raspberries to Centerpoint Energy. The best way to beat earnings estimates: Lower the bar for expectations. The normal beat rate is about 75%. What is the true value of a financial advisor? Not to be confused with a portfolio manager (Doctors vs Coaches). A brief discussion of Tex-Mex, BBQ, and Houston as a food mecca; the value of a financial planner to a family. SEG-1: Inflation vs Deflation - Which Way, Interest Rates? SEG-2A: The Roberts' Rental Saga, Pt-2 SEG-2B: How to Beat Earnings Estimates SEG-3: The Value of a Financial Advisor, Pt-1 SEG-4: The Value of a Financial Advisor, Pt-2 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bG6OzGjibtM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Earnings Bar Lowered As Q2 Reports Begin" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-bar-lowered-as-q2-reports-begin/ "The Confidence Dichotomy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Interest Rates are a Function of Inflation and Economic Growth" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuGhZlS_1J0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Confidence Dichotomy" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QF2-xOKv68c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #EarningsGrowth #FinancialCrisis #LoweredEarningsBar #CompanyPerformance #Expectations #StrongEarnings #QuarterResults #FinancialAnalysis #EarningsEstimates #Inflation #Deflation #FinancialAdvice #FinancialAdvisorValue #PortfolioManager #RentalProperty #HomeOwnership #Markets #Money #Investing
This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.The U.S. economy is starting to flash warning signs of a slowdown that many predicted would come sooner. Q2 GDP was revised downward last week to an annualized pace of 1.3%, 30 basis points below the first estimate in April and more than 200 basis points below the pace of growth from Q1. Key manufacturing indicators are also pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. Later this week we will get the May employment report which should give us a good indication of whether the weak report in April was an anomaly, or the beginning of a larger trend. Multifamily indicators were mixed last week, and mostly flat for the month of May. Traffic and leasing have remained unchanged for the past few weeks, and I believe we have seen the peak for both leading indicators this year at the national level. Rent growth and occupancy continue to improve as they dig out from the now two-year slumps. Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website
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