Podcasts about treasuries

  • 342PODCASTS
  • 848EPISODES
  • 22mAVG DURATION
  • 1DAILY NEW EPISODE
  • Oct 4, 2022LATEST

POPULARITY

20152016201720182019202020212022

Categories



Best podcasts about treasuries

Show all podcasts related to treasuries

Latest podcast episodes about treasuries

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 4-Oct

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2022 4:01


US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, adding to Monday's big rally which saw the S&P post its third-best start to an October since 1930. Treasuries were higher, though came off best levels. The upside momentum was helped by dovish surprise from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which raised rates by 25 basis points vs the 50 that had been expected. August JOLTS job openings posted one of the biggest drops on record, while the NY Times also discussed some signs that the labor market is loosening and wage growth is slowing.

One Radio Network
10.04.22 Titus John

One Radio Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2022 77:51


ORN John Titus show notes 10/4/22 John's substack is BestEvidence.substack.com 2008 financial collapse was one lie after another after another till bailout was passed, and then more lying. Too Big To Fail movie was a piece of s**t. The Big Short movie is great. FED transaction for $5 million also created $5 million in deposits. They bought assets from non-banks and had to create a parallel amount of money. $9 trillion was actually created. $13 trillion in deposit accounts at the onset of the pandemic. Now at $18 trillion. Set the stage for inflation. In a debt-based monetary system, money contracting, which we have now, is either a depression or bad recession. Great Depression had 30% contraction of money supply. Bank deposits between Feb and August 2022 have been flat, and now it's falling. How does the FED monetize Patrick's car? It's mostly with the financial instruments and mortgage back securities. Creditors of US treasury are owed $5.6 trillion. The owners of the FED are the ones making money. Why don't they have to pay back? Paper by Ricard Werner: Can banks create money out of nothing? Banks don't get dispossessed of money they loan. The money is created on the balance sheet out of thin air, offset by a debit entry on the balance sheet. Bank Robbery by Ivo Mossley explains it all. .01% of the population can create money out of thin air and lend it at interest. Mastercard is not a bank. Has a bank behind it. Banks that own the Federal Reserve give Treasury 6% back after expenses. 12 district Federal Reserve banks. Citigroup is dominant owner of New York FED. They're not paying profits to the FED. Why not? Citigroup borrowed $2.5 trillion from the FED in addition to TARP. Poorly run company with junk stock – did 10 for 1 stock split. Needed a bailout. FED went to Citigroup. Said you have a bunch of mortgage bank securities that are worthless. FED bought them up out of reserves. During pandemic, FED bought assets from BlackRock, who isn't in the FED circuit of reserves. Made a 3 way transaction with 1 million reserves created, 1 million retail bank deposits created. 60% of FED paper money is overseas. FED wants to bypass the banks and compete with them by dealing directly with consumers with CBDC. Amount of legal tender is $2.3 trillion in FED reserve notes and coins. If you have $50 million, you park them in Treasuries, and they're insured. John recommends reading the Z.1 Federal Reserve Report. We're in for a really bad time. Recession coming. Items in federal budget are non-negotiable. Amount of interest owed, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are bigger than assets coming. Debt is spiraling out of control. Increase in interest rates will show up in interest rates that the federal government pays. Inflation is classic way out of runaway debt. There's no way out. No one with any money, like in 1929 recession, or everyone has lots of money and stuff costs 50 times as much. 2 ways to crash a currency. 1) Borrow from foreign currency, and that currency rises against yours. It's what happened in Weimar. 2) Lose a war. Here we are on the brink of a war. The US brand is being diluted intentionally. The US is being kicked to death. If we annihilate Europe, we have a new customer base. What happens to dollars if we go to Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)? Central bankers hate dollars. They don't know who has them. They would know with CBDC. Need a network in local community to be able to continuing transacting in dollars or bartering. They deliberately collapse banks in debt-based monetary system. Think about: How are you going to be able to get your money quickly? Merit in selling stock and getting dollars. Gas station offering 60 cent cash discount.

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour
Will the Next Crisis be Credit-related? (10/4/22)

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2022 47:49


(10/4/22) Will companies be able to pass along increased costs to consumers? As the prelude to earnings season begins to rev-up, CEO confidence is down; what will their outlooks reveal? Has the bounce begun? The short squeeze we predicted has arrived; expect rally to 3,800 to 3,900; Q3 GDP could provide some life to markets. While 70% of companies surveyed by KPMG say ESG has improved their earnings, 59% are pausing or reversing their ESG stance. How concerned is the Fed about Pension funds? The BOE's margin call loop: When Pension funds run out of collateral (a financial crisis doesn't have to be credit-related). Investment decisions are based upon models (see "Margin Call," the movie). Why this is not like 2008: More persons are working longer; what happens if/when they all pull their pension funds; could that create a "run" on Pensions? Market Commentary; is it unnerving that everyone sees a Recession coming, because no one ever sees a Recession coming. Bitcoin crimes & The Silk Road. The effects of drug use on society. SEG-1: Earnings Season Prelude SEG-2: The Financial Crisis Doesn't Have to be Credit-related SEG-3: Why This is Not Like 2008--But It Is SEG-4: The Recession No One Sees Coming Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtMoI1ozqG0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Be Careful: We're Not Out of The Woods Yet" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XO84WpHov5I&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Nowhere to Go But US Dollar & Treasuries" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UdZf34LihM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2601s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "ESG Underperformance Will Be Its Undoing" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/esg-underperformance-will-be-its-undoing/ "The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-big-short-squeeze-is-coming/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FinancialCrisis #ShortSqueeze #EconomicRecession #EarningsSeason #PensionFund #PensionRun #BitCoin #TheSilkRoad #Markets #Money #Investing

P&L With Paul Sweeney and Lisa Abramowicz
Treasuries, iPhones, Ray Dalio, the Supply Chain, and ESG (Podcast)

P&L With Paul Sweeney and Lisa Abramowicz

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2022 39:34


Ira Jersey, Chief US interest rate strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Treasury yields peaking and the latest JOLTS data. Anurag Rana, Senior Software and IT analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the show to talk about the latest Bloomberg Intelligence findings on iPhone sales, outlook for Apple, and outlook for retail in 2022. Erik Schatzker, editor-at-large at Bloomberg News, joins the show to discuss the breaking story that Ray Dalio is giving up control of Bridgewater Associates. Tony Hatch, consultant with ABH consulting, joins the show in studio along with BI analyst Lee Klaskow to discuss the latest on the supply chain. Vivek Ramaswamy, founder of Strive Asset Management, joins the show to discuss his latest ETF, ESG investing, and outlook for the markets and ESG trading. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Matt Miller, and Barry Ritholtz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Real Investment Show Podcast
Nowhere to Go But US Dollar & Treasuries (10/3/22)

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2022 47:48 Very Popular


(10/3/22) Don't let a bear market force you into making bad investing decisions. When will the real risk of recession occur? Any rally back to 4,000 is a good opportunity to "fix" your portfolio. When will the Fed begin to taper rate hikes? Today's special, un-scheduled Fed Governors meeting; dealing with recession fatigue; the real risk will be in 2023; the lagging effect of Fed rate hikes; Why are American's already tired of recession? Bankrate.com; there have been no incentives for saving. What's at stake in the mid-term elections? Any economic downturn will likely be over by the time the Presidential election occurs...unless something REALLY gets screwed up. What happens when the Fed and markets tighten liquidity at the same time? The biggest risk is a lack of liquidity in treasury markets; everything is a fiat currency, backed by faith and credit of individual governments; why there's not a United States of Europe; why there's no place else to go than US Dollar and Treasuries. Contraction of liquidity in US Treasuries poses a global risk. One more rate hike is going to break something. SEG-1: When Will Real Risk of Recession Occur? SEG-2: Dealing with Recession Fatigue SEG-3: What Happens When Markets & The Fed Tighten at Once? SEG-4: The Biggest Risk to Markets Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UdZf34LihM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2601s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Keep an Eye on the 200-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz2XgsC0oaM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "The Broken Window Theory is Flawed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRTlN4RKC0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=8s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #RecessionFatigue #InflationFatigue #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Markets #Money #Investing

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Monday, 3-Oct

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2022 5:16 Very Popular


US equities ended notably higher in Monday afternoon trading, just off best levels. The S&P logged one of its best sessions of the year after setting a fresh YTD low on Friday (which capped a third-straight down week). Treasuries rallied with the biggest gains in the belly of the curve. After several failed attempts recently, stocks held on to a big rally. There is more speculation about the need for Fed to pivot from its outsized rate hikes amid concerns something is going to break. September ISM manufacturing saw a larger-than-expected slowdown. Despite the stock rally, sentiment is still depressed amid concerns about tightening financial conditions from the global rate hike cycle.

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour
Nowhere to Go But US Dollar & Treasuries (10/3/22)

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2022 47:47


(10/3/22) Don't let a bear market force you into making bad investing decisions. When will the real risk of recession occur? Any rally back to 4,000 is a good opportunity to "fix" your portfolio. When will the Fed begin to taper rate hikes? Today's special, un-scheduled Fed Governors meeting; dealing with recession fatigue; the real risk will be in 2023; the lagging effect of Fed rate hikes; Why are American's already tired of recession? Bankrate.com; there have been no incentives for saving. What's at stake in the mid-term elections? Any economic downturn will likely be over by the time the Presidential election occurs...unless something REALLY gets screwed up. What happens when the Fed and markets tighten liquidity at the same time? The biggest risk is a lack of liquidity in treasury markets; everything is a fiat currency, backed by faith and credit of individual governments; why there's not a United States of Europe; why there's no place else to go than US Dollar and Treasuries. Contraction of liquidity in US Treasuries poses a global risk. One more rate hike is going to break something. SEG-1: When Will Real Risk of Recession Occur? SEG-2: Dealing with Recession Fatigue SEG-3: What Happens When Markets & The Fed Tighten at Once? SEG-4: The Biggest Risk to Markets Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UdZf34LihM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2601s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Keep an Eye on the 200-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz2XgsC0oaM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "The Broken Window Theory is Flawed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRTlN4RKC0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=8s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #RecessionFatigue #InflationFatigue #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Markets #Money #Investing

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Thursday, 29-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2022 4:26


US equities were lower in Thursday trading, ending a bit off worst levels as the S&P finished at the lowest level since November of 2020. Treasuries were weaker though off worst levels. It was a fairly quiet session without any single catalyst for today's weakness, though risk remains to the downside as recent bounce attempts have attracted a lot of scrutiny. UK Prime Minister Truss defended her government's unfunded tax cuts. German flash inflation came in hotter than expected for September. The central bank continues to push “raise-and-hold” and “higher-for-longer” messaging.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Wednesday, 28-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2022 6:00 Very Popular


US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, ending just off session highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and the Nasdaq closing up 188 basis points, 197 basis points, and 205 basis points respectively. The S&P broke a six-day string of declines that saw the index yesterday hit its lowest intraday level in nearly two years. Treasuries were notably firmer, particularly in the belly of the curve. 10-year yields spent some time above 4% but later pulled back to near 3.70%. The Big UK bond rally was the main driver after the Bank of England said this morning it would purchase long-dated Gilts to restore market functioning. Not much from another flurry of Fedspeak. Hurricane Ian currently at category 4 strength as it makes landfall in Florida.

Americana Partners
Stay Invested - September 2022 Market Commentary

Americana Partners

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2022 45:45


Melissa Giles, Director of Portfolio Management with Americana Partners presents the Monthly Market Commentary as written by, David M Darst, Chief Investment Officer with Americana Partners.  Any charts/graphs referenced are available in print format and may be provided at your request. David is currently the Chief Investment Officer for Americana Partners. David served for 17 years as a Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, with responsibility for Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy; was the founding President of the Morgan Stanley Investment Group; and was founding Chairman of the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Asset Allocation Committee. After 2014, he served for several years as Senior Advisor to and a member of the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Committee. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1996 from Goldman Sachs, where he held Senior Management posts within the Equities Division and earlier, for six years as Resident Manager of their Private Bank in Zurich. David is the Author of twelve books: (i) The Complete Bond Book (McGraw-Hill); (ii) The Handbook of the Bond and Money Markets (McGraw-Hill); (iii) The Art of Asset Allocation, Second Edition (McGraw-Hill); (iv) Mastering the Art of Asset Allocation (McGraw-Hill); (v) Benjamin Graham on Investing (McGraw-Hill); (vi) The Little Book that Saves Your Assets (John Wiley & Sons), which was ranked on the bestseller lists of The New York Times and Business Week; (vii) Portfolio Investment Opportunities in China (John Wiley & Sons); and (x) Portfolio Investment Opportunities in Precious Metals (John Wiley & Sons). His works have been translated into Chinese, Japanese, Russian, German, Korean, Italian, Indonesian, Norwegian, Romanian, and Vietnamese. Seapoint Books published David's eleventh book in 2012 , Voyager 3, containing his creative writing, and in 2016, his twelfth book, Flim-Flam Flora, a children's book coauthored with his daughter. David appears as a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX, PBS, and other television channels, and has contributed numerous articles to Barron's Euromoney, The Money Manager, Forbes.com, The Yale Economic Review, and other publications. He has broadcast and written extensively on asset allocation in the Morgan Stanley biweekly Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation Commentary and in the Firm's Wealth Management monthly publication, Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy Digest, the predecessors of which he launched in 1997. David attended Father Ryan High School in Nashville, Tennessee, graduated from Phillips Exeter Academy, was awarded a BA degree in Economics from Yale University, and earned his MBA from Harvard Business School. David serves on the Investment Committee of the Phi Beta Kappa Foundation and the Advisory Boards of the George Washington Institute for Religious Freedom and the Black Rock Arts Foundation. David has lectured extensively at Wharton, Columbia, INSEAD, and New York University Business Schools, and for nine years, David served as a visiting faculty member at Yale College, Yale School of Management, and Harvard Business School. In November 2011, David was inducted by Quinnipiac University in their Business Leaders Hall of Fame. David is a CFA Charterholder and a member of the New York Society of Security Analysts and the CFA Institute. Join Our Distribution List – For a full copy of our report. Americana Partners - https://www.americanapartners.com/contact/ Americana Partners Website - https://www.americanapartners.com/ Linked In - https://www.linkedin.com/company/americana-partners/ Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/3rX19ND89pwEob9efsFNNF iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/americana-partners/id1496186853 Google Podcasts - https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkLnBvZGJlYW4uY29tL2FtZXJpY2FuYXBhcnRuZXJzL2ZlZWQueG1s?sa=X&ved=0CAYQrrcFahcKEwj4gZrR_OnwAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAg   Disclosures Americana Partners, LLC is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. A copy of Americana Partners' current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, Americana Partners' business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. The tax and legal information contained in this newsletter is general in nature. It should not be construed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Foreign securities, foreign currencies, and securities issued by U.S. entities with substantial foreign operations can involve additional risks relating to political, economic, or regulatory conditions in foreign countries. These risks include fluctuations in foreign currencies; withholding or other taxes; trading, settlement, custodial, and other operational risks; and less stringent investor protection and disclosure standards in some foreign markets. All of these factors can make foreign investments, especially those in emerging markets, more volatile and potentially less liquid than U.S. investments. In addition, foreign markets can perform differently from the U.S. market. Investing involves certain risks, including possible loss of principal. You should understand and carefully consider a strategy's objectives, risks, fees, expenses and other information before investing. The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change and are not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice. Such views do not take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor that receives them. The strategies described herein may not be suitable for all investors. There is no guarantee that the adviser will meet any of its investment objectives. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Indices do not incur costs including the payment of transaction costs, fees and other expenses. This information should not be considered a solicitation or an offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so under the laws of that jurisdiction. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments based on that index. The S&P 500® Index is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of 500 common stocks which are generally representative of the U.S. stock market as a whole. The Nasdaq Composite® Index is the market capitalization-weighted index of over 2,500 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts, common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and tracking stocks, as well as limited partnership interests. The EAFE® Index is a stock index offered by MSCI that covers non-U.S. and Canadian equity markets. It serves as a performance benchmark for the major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australasia, and the Middle East. The EAFE® Index is the oldest international stock index and is commonly called the MSCI EAFE Index. The Russell 2500® is a market-cap-weighted index that includes the smallest 2,500 companies covered in the broad-based Russell 3000 sphere of United States-based listed equities. All 2,500 of the companies included in the Index cover the small- and mid-cap market capitalizations. The Russell 1000® Growth Index is an unmanaged index that measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000® Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of expected price fluctuations in the S&P 500 Index options over the next 30 days. The VIX is calculated in real time by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). P/E or Price to Earnings ratio is indicates the dollar amount an investor can expect to invest in a company in order to receive one dollar of that company's earnings. The Consumer Confidence Survey® reflects prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District; Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The ISM manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), is a monthly indicator of U.S. economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. The Composite Index of Leading Indicators, otherwise known as the Leading Economic Index (LEI), is an index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months. A bond rating is a letter-based credit scoring scheme used to judge the quality and creditworthiness of a bond. The option adjusted spread (OAS) measures the difference in yield between a bond with an embedded option, such as an MBS or callables, with the yield on Treasuries. Mean reversion, in finance, suggests that various phenomena of interest such as asset prices and volatility of returns eventually revert to their long-term average levels. A meme stock is a security that has seen an increase in trading volume after going viral on social media or an online forum. This document may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,”“anticipate,”“should,”“planned,”“estimated,”“potential”and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio' operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward looking statements or examples. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, modified or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Americana Partners. Americana Partners reserves the right, at any time and without notice, to amend, or cease publication of the information contained herein. Certain of the information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources and has not been independently verified. It is made available on an "as is" basis without warranty. Any strategies or investment programs described in this presentation are provided for educational purposes only and are not necessarily indicative of securities offered for sale or private placement offerings available to any investor. The mention of any individual security should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell that security.

Saxo Market Call
Are equities and treasuries set for correlation jump?

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2022 18:08


Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Rp7o5z   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  -  Today, a look at the US 10-year Treasury benchmark reaching the 4.0% milestone for the first time for this cycle after a remarkable surge in yields in recent weeks. It's worth considering the 1987 experience of bond markets flip-flopping in their correlation with equities and whether we could be set for a similar flip-flop if risk sentiment worsens further. Also, note that many speculative corners of the market were bid yesterday even as the action soured late and worsened still overnight as the US dollar continued surging - especially against the Chinese yuan overnight. Much more on today's pod, which is a solo flight with John J. Hardy hosting. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The Heresy Financial Podcast
Is the Fed Using Repo Market to Secretly Help Japan Dump Treasuries?

The Heresy Financial Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2022 9:54


Japan is in trouble. Their yen is collapsing as they are trying to maintain yield curve control. And so, they intervened to prop up the value of the yen for the first time in decades last week. Now, it turns out that the Federal Reserve may be assisting them. As Bloomberg points out, Japan may have a pile of dollars it can tap at the Fed's reverse repurchase facility, accessible by foreign central banks. However, I think what Bloomberg is talking about here is actually the opposite of what's going on at the reverse repo facility. There is not enough evidence that Japan has any significant amount of money with the Fed. Instead, it looks like the Fed is going to have to be actively assisting Japan with dumping those Treasuries, using the opposite the repo facility, specifically the one for foreign central banks.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 27-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2022 5:41


US equities were mixed in fairly choppy Tuesday trading, but closed off their worst levels when the S&P hit lowest intraday level since November of 2020. Treasuries were mostly weaker with a big bear steepening move following an earlier, broad-based bounce attempt. September consumer confidence came in ahead of expectations for the second straight month. August new-home sales came in well ahead of consensus. Two leaks in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline were reported today by Sweden's maritime administration. It was also another busy day of Fedspeak.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Monday, 26-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2022 5:09 Very Popular


US equities were lower in Monday trading, ending a bit off worst levels. Treasuries under pressure across the curve, ending near worst levels as global bond yield backup continued. Not much specific behind today's weakness as pain trade for risk assets are still largely to the downside as the market narrative continues to revolve around a tightening of financial conditions driven by a more hawkish than expected Fed-led global rate hike cycle. BoE's Bailey said the bank would not hesitate to hike to return inflation to the 2% target but made no hint of a near-term rate hike. Fed presidents Bostic and Collins both said there is a path to a soft landing, highlighting positive momentum, solid balance sheets, and a resilient labor market. Depositions of Elon Musk and Twitter CEO Agrawal were postponed.

The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Fed has Gone Too Far (9/26/22)

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2022 47:49 Very Popular


(9/26/22) Markets on Friday held onto June bottoms and are expected to rally back to 3,900; there were a record number of put-options placed on Friday, as well, indicating investors are hedging against a market crash. Could Italian national elections installing a fiscal conservative by an overwhelming majority be a precursor to US Mid-terms? Current challenges in the auto market: Few used cars available, prices at a premium; long term result of Obama-era "Cash for Cars" program, lengthening of financing terms; watching for reversion in car prices. Market commentary: The Fed has Gone too Far. The Fed's focus on inflation creating a stronger dollar abroad, which in turn, replicates inflation there; the Fed's currency intervention (manipulation) options to keep trade stable; adding to debt service expense; the Fed always breaks things: How to navigate through. What is The One Asset for investing during inflation/deflation? The trick of transferring in and out of Treasuries; more rate hikes affect more than just interest rates; what is really "Fair Value" without Fed intervention? SEG-1: Setting Up for October's Historical Market Bottom SEG-2: Buying Cars w The Roberts' Kids SEG-3: Navigating the Fed's Focus on Inflation SEG-4: The One Asset for Investing During Inflation & Deflation Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-6fXttAf9Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2655s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will We Re-challenge June's Lows?3" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZawY7axSI3c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Did the Fed Just Break the Economy?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7vhjai_U5k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1835s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #UsedCarShopping #InterestRateHike #FOMC #BondInvesting #Inflation #Deflation #Markets #Money #Investing

A View from the Perch
What should I do with my excess cash?

A View from the Perch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2022 28:31


In this week's episode, Markets Update: Are we at a bottom, or are there more woes to come? Empowering Education: How can you take advantage of rising interest rates and excess cash in this market? U.S. Treasuries. Intriguing Issues: How do companies in this day and age "pass on" inflation to the consumer?/Remembering the Queen.

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour
The Fed has Gone Too Far (9/26/22)

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2022 47:48


(9/26/22) Markets on Friday held onto June bottoms and are expected to rally back to 3,900; there were a record number of put-options placed on Friday, as well, indicating investors are hedging against a market crash. Could Italian national elections installing a fiscal conservative by an overwhelming majority be a precursor to US Mid-terms? Current challenges in the auto market: Few used cars available, prices at a premium; long term result of Obama-era "Cash for Cars" program, lengthening of financing terms; watching for reversion in car prices. Market commentary: The Fed has Gone too Far. The Fed's focus on inflation creating a stronger dollar abroad, which in turn, replicates inflation there; the Fed's currency intervention (manipulation) options to keep trade stable; adding to debt service expense; the Fed always breaks things: How to navigate through. What is The One Asset for investing during inflation/deflation? The trick of transferring in and out of Treasuries; more rate hikes affect more than just interest rates; what is really "Fair Value" without Fed intervention? SEG-1: Setting Up for October's Historical Market Bottom SEG-2: Buying Cars w The Roberts' Kids SEG-3: Navigating the Fed's Focus on Inflation SEG-4: The One Asset for Investing During Inflation & Deflation Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-6fXttAf9Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2655s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Will We Re-challenge June's Lows?3" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZawY7axSI3c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Did the Fed Just Break the Economy?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7vhjai_U5k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1835s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #UsedCarShopping #InterestRateHike #FOMC #BondInvesting #Inflation #Deflation #Markets #Money #Investing

Barron's Streetwise
Tasty Treasuries and Crashing Gold

Barron's Streetwise

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2022 27:01 Very Popular


Jack reviews investing recommendations from a trio of top strategists. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Real Investment Show Podcast
Money Scripting & Raising Money Smart Kids (9/23/22)

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2022 47:49 Very Popular


(9/24/22) Markets did not respond well to Jerome Powell's statements following this week's FOMC meeting and rate hike. The question now is how far the Fed will go in its inflation fight. What does going long on Treasuries by Institutional investors tell us now? ESG underperformance is causing headaches for Calpers; what happens when political agendas run afoul of investing agendas. Study: Companies with high value also tend to have high carbon footprints. Jamie Dimon's 180 on Cryptocurrency: Decentralized Ponzi Scheme. The importance of Money Scripting in raising money smart kids: Save, Share, Spend. Investing with the Beave: That time Ward taught Wally & Beaver about investing, and that rascal, Eddie Haskell. Linking investments to real-life; Custodial Roth IRA's. SEG-1: How Far will Powell Go? SEG-2: ESG Performance: What Happens When Social Agendas Collide w Investing Agenda SEG-3: Raising Money Smart Kids - The Problem w One-click Purchases SEG-4: Investing with The Beave Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTm7h9sVbYE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2523s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Higher Rates are Here to Stay Until 2023" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWe17gAeUgk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Did the Fed Just Break the Economy?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7vhjai_U5k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1835s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #InterestRateHike #JeromePowell #FOMC #BondInvesting #Inflation #MoneyScript #LeaveItToBeaver #Markets #Money #Investing

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour
Money Scripting & Raising Money Smart Kids (9/23/22)

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2022 47:48


(9/24/22) Markets did not respond well to Jerome Powell's statements following this week's FOMC meeting and rate hike. The question now is how far the Fed will go in its inflation fight. What does going long on Treasuries by Institutional investors tell us now? ESG underperformance is causing headaches for Calpers; what happens when political agendas run afoul of investing agendas. Study: Companies with high value also tend to have high carbon footprints. Jamie Dimon's 180 on Cryptocurrency: Decentralized Ponzi Scheme. The importance of Money Scripting in raising money smart kids: Save, Share, Spend. Investing with the Beave: That time Ward taught Wally & Beaver about investing, and that rascal, Eddie Haskell. Linking investments to real-life; Custodial Roth IRA's. SEG-1: How Far will Powell Go? SEG-2: ESG Performance: What Happens When Social Agendas Collide w Investing Agenda SEG-3: Raising Money Smart Kids - The Problem w One-click Purchases SEG-4: Investing with The Beave Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTm7h9sVbYE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2523s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Higher Rates are Here to Stay Until 2023" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWe17gAeUgk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Did the Fed Just Break the Economy?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7vhjai_U5k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1835s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #InterestRateHike #JeromePowell #FOMC #BondInvesting #Inflation #MoneyScript #LeaveItToBeaver #Markets #Money #Investing

The Financial Exchange Show
How Fed Hikes Will Affect Treasuries // Changing Attitudes, Changing Labor Market - 9/22 (Hour 2)

The Financial Exchange Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2022 40:39


(1:06) - Continuing the discussion about the Federal Reserve and how the ongoing rate hikes will affect treasuries.(11:31) - A conversation about how the changing attitudes of workers are causing a shift in the labor market.(23:25) - Talking about the alliances that the U.S. has regarding semiconductors, and how those alliances could hurt China.(33:21) - Stack roulette.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Thursday, 22-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2022 4:41


US equities finished lower in fairly quiet Thursday trading, with a bit of a rally in the last hour of the session largely evaporating. Treasuries were notably weaker, particularly in the belly of the curve. Hawkish takeaways from the Fed dot plot and Powell's press conference continue to dominate the headlines. Japan intervened to support the yen for first time since 1998 after it weakened past 145 yen per dollar for first time since 1998. Several central banks announced rate hikes, bringing this week's total to more than 600 basis points.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Wednesday, 21-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2022 6:01


US equities finished lower, near their worst levels, with the market very volatile after today's FOMC meeting, and the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 170 basis points, 171 basis points, and 179 basis points respectively. Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points today, as widely expected. The FOMC statement was little changed from July. Dot plot takeaways leaned hawkish with the median rate at 4.4% to end 2022 and a 4.6% terminal rate in 2023. Geopolitical tensions were a big area of focus in the overnight as Putin announced a partial mobilization ahead of referenda in four occupied regions of Ukraine while also reiterating the threat to utilize nuclear weapons. Further signs of the housing market cooling, but generally better inflation headlines.

The Real Investment Show Podcast
Treasuries Respond to Fed's Rate Hike Binge (9/21/22)

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2022 2:49


(9/21/22) The Fed is expected today to raise interest rates by 75-basis points, but the real headline will come from the statement that's issued after the meeting is over: Will Jerome Powell reiterate his hawkish claims from Jackson Hole, or will he backpedal? That news will drive markets into the afternoon. As the Fed continues its rate hike campaign, Treasuries are responding in kind, and at this point, Bonds are cheaper relative to stocks. (A history of rate hikes is given here.) As rates rise, there is a shift from risk (assets) into less-risky instruments (bonds). Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QUp-riVZOI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #FOMCMeeting #JeromePowell #JuffGundlach #InterestRateHikes #Inflation #SlowerEconomicGrowth #Markets #Money #Investing

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Thursday, 15-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 15, 2022 4:44


US equities were lower in Thursday afternoon trading, though finished a bit off worst levels as the S&P closed just above the key 3900 level. Treasuries were weaker with more curve flattening (key spreads most inverted since 2000). There were no big directional drivers behind the negative tone, though the path of least resistance seems to the downside in the wake of Tuesday's hotter CPI report, which has led to higher terminal rate expectations. The threatened US rail strike was averted after the White House and unions reached a tentative deal this morning. Headline retail sales surprised to the upside, but core control group was flat and missed expectations. Adobe finished down upon news of the $20B acquisition of Figma and underwhelming Q4 guidance.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Wednesday, 14-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2022 6:12 Very Popular


US equities were mostly higher in fairly choppy Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq rising 10 basis points, 34 basis points, and 74 basis points respectively. Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening after a big bearish flattening move in prior session; The 2Y yield reached its highest level since October of 2007. The Market struggled for direction after yesterday's big selloff. The Hotter than expected August CPI print continued to dominate the narrative. US headline PPI declined for a second straight month, though the core reading was a bit firmer following the hot CPI reading on Tuesday. Lots of discussion in press about growth, supply chain, and inflation risks from the potential rail strike in the US. In terms of company news, a Busy day of antitrust headlines.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 13-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 13, 2022 6:00


US equities were sharply lower in Tuesday trading, ending just off their worst levels in the wake of today's hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq falling 394 basis points, 432 basis points, and 516 basis points respectively. The S&P and Nasdaq posted their worst day since Jun-20th. Growth was an underperformer versus value by ~170 basis points, but both factors were down. Treasuries were mostly weaker with yields at the front-end of the curve sharply higher. August's CPI release showed headline inflation rising 10 basis points m/m against expectations for a slight monthly pullback. The release put market under significant pressure, with some press commentary helping push odds of a 100bp September hike over 30%.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Monday, 12-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 12, 2022 4:42


US equities were higher in uneventful Monday afternoon trading, though ended somewhat off best levels. The S&P and Nasdaq both up for the fourth-straight day, extending last week's rally that broke a streak of three-straight weekly declines. Treasuries were mostly weaker, off some earlier strength, with the curve steepening. Fairly quiet from a headline perspective, with focus tightly on tomorrow's August CPI report and expectations for a m/m headline decline. NY Fed survey showed consumer inflation expectations continued to decline in August across all time horizons with respondents increasingly optimistic about their finances.

WEALTHTRACK
Bonds: New Investment Opportunities

WEALTHTRACK

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 9, 2022 25:47


The bond world changed dramatically in 2022. From several years of historically low to negative interest rates, as far as the eye could see, the horizon is now filled with rising rates across the globe. It's a welcome change for yield starved investors and fixed income managers who have been coping with a record breaking yield drought. One of them is this weekend's guest who recently reopened his fund to new investors because of the “improved opportunity set.” He is Tom Atteberry, now Senior Advisor to FPA New Income Fund having just retired, as planned, from his portfolio manager duties in July of this year. He had been Portfolio Manager of the fund since 2004. Atteberry will discuss why they have reopened the fund and where they are investing now. He will also share his current preference for asset-backed bonds over Treasuries and corporates. WEALTHTRACK #1911 broadcast on September 09, 2022 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-new-investment-opportunities-being-discovered-by-award-winning-fpa-new-income-fund/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Weekly Market Recap - Friday, 9-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 9, 2022 6:33


US equities rallied this week to break three-straight weekly declines, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing the week up 266 basis points, 365 basis points, and 414 basis points respectively. Growth outperformed value, breaking a four-week streak of underperformance. Treasuries sold off fairly sharply with the curve flattening. Gains this week were driven by factors including oversold conditions, some more traction in the peak-inflation narrative, and firmer labor market data. Expectations for a 75 bp hike in September continued to ramp up this week, with market odds up to ~85% by Friday. Next week's August CPI report will be the last key datapoint ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Thoughts on the Market
Matthew Hornbach: How Markets Price in Quantitative Tightening

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2022 4:02 Very Popular


The impact of quantitative monetary policies is hard to understand, for investors and academics alike, but why are these impacts so complex and how might investors better understand the market implications?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about global macro trends and how investors can interpret these trends for rates and currency markets. It's Thursday, September 8th, at 10 a.m. in New York. QT is the talk of the town. QT stands for quantitative tightening, which is meant to contrast it with QE, or quantitative easing. QT sounds intimidating, especially when respected investors mention the term and, at the same time, ring the fire alarm on financial news networks. Unfortunately, the exact workings of QT and QE and their ultimate impact on markets aren't well understood. And that's not just a comment about the general public's understanding. It even applies to investors who have long dealt with quantitative policies and for academics who have long studied them. There are four reasons why the impact of quantitative monetary policies, as the Fed has implemented them, is hard to understand. First, different institutions take the lead in determining the impact of QE versus QT. The Fed determines the first round impact of quantitative easing, while the U.S. Treasury and mortgage originators determine the first round impact of quantitative tightening. Second, as the phrase "first round impact" implies, there are second round impacts as well. In the case of quantitative easing, the first round occurs when the Fed buys a U.S. Treasury or Agency mortgage backed security, also known as an agency MBS, from an investor. The second round occurs when that investor uses the cash from the Fed to buy something else. In the case of quantitative tightening, the first round occurs when an investor sells something in order to raise the cash that it needs. What does it need the cash for? Well, to buy a forthcoming Treasury Security or agency MBS. The second round occurs when the U.S. Treasury auctions that security or when a mortgage originator issues an agency MBS in order to raise the cash that the Fed is no longer providing. Third, QE and QT affect different markets in different ways. QE affects the Treasury and agency MBS markets directly in the first round. But in the second round, investor decisions about how to invest that cash could affect a wide variety of markets from esoteric loan products to blue chip equities. In that sense, some of the impact of QE is indirect and could affect some markets more than others. Similarly with QT, investor decisions about what to sell could affect a large number of markets, again some more than others. In addition, what the U.S. Treasury issues and what mortgage originators sell can change over time with financing needs and different market environments. Finally, markets price these different effects with different probabilities and at different times. For example, when the Fed announces a QE program, we know with near certainty that the Fed will buy Treasuries and agency MBS and generally know how much of each the Fed will buy. So investors can price in those effects relatively soon after the announcement. But we don't know, with nearly the same probability, what the sellers of those treasuries and agency MBS will do with the cash until they actually get the cash from the Fed. And that could be months after the announcement when the Fed actually buys the securities. Figuring out the effect on markets from QT is even more complicated because even though we know what the Fed will no longer buy, we don't know exactly what or how much the U.S. Treasury or mortgage originators will sell. If all of this sounds complex, believe me it is. There are no easy conclusions to draw for your investment strategies when it comes to QT. So the next time someone rings the fire alarm and yells QT, first look for where there might be smoke before running out of the building or selling all of your risky assets. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people find the show.

FICC Focus
Mortgage Market Mayhem: Macro Matters

FICC Focus

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2022 24:57


High mortgage rates are have a negative effect on Agency mortgage-back securities performance relative to Treasuries, and the Fed's quantitative tightening may make it worse due to changes in sector allocations in the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Chief Agency Mortgage Strategist Erica Adelberg and BI North American Rates Strategist Angelo Manolotos who discuss the mortgage market, Canadian interest rates, and how central bank balance sheet runoff could affect the relative returns of several asset classes.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Thursday, 8-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2022 5:49


US equities finished higher in a choppy Thursday session, near best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq rising 61 basis points, 66 basis points, and 60 basis points respectively. Treasuries were weaker across the curve. No change in the market narrative in today's session. Nothing new from Fed Chair Powell, who reiterated the Fed would keep going down the tightening path until it achieves price target. The ECB raised rates by 75 basis points. Quiet day of US data included an initial jobless claims beat.

Seed Club Podcast
Jango — Allocating Treasuries

Seed Club Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 7, 2022 33:57


Jango is a developer at Juicebox, a protocol for community fundraising. Web3 coordination often exists at the intersection of large treasuries. Innovative means of capital allocation is one of the most promising crypto design spaces. Jess and Jango discuss automated funding mechanisms, the use case for frequent proposal and discourse periods, and how this could unlock more DAO experiments.

The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
September brings back-to-school trading environment: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 7, 2022 10:34


In today's episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves recaps the key events of the last couple weeks of trading into and out of the Labor Day holiday in the U.S. He discusses the renewed hawkishness by central banks, which were taken up a notch at Jackson Hole. Meanwhile, Fed speakers kept the hawkish tone alive post-event, which has helped keep the direction of rates higher since. George highlights that a big driver of the U.S. rates move, especially out the curve, was the global rise in rates, where European and U.K. rates have actually risen more than what we have witnessed in Treasuries. Looking ahead, George will be watching if Fed speakers keep delivering a consistent message, and how hawkish or not the ECB will be at its upcoming policy meeting this week. George concludes that the Fed will likely do 75, so long as market pricing is at least 50/50 chance of a 75 hike at the September meeting. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 6-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2022 5:04 Very Popular


US equities finished lower in a fairly choppy yet uneventful Tuesday session, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 55 basis points, 41 basis points, and 74 basis points respectively. Treasuries were under pressure with the curve steepening and extending a big backup in yields last week. No big directional drivers in play ahead of Powell and the ECB later this week. The August ISM Services beat with prices index down for the fourth-straight month and employment index back into expansion territory. Russia warned gas supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will remain halted until the West lifts its sanctions. China said it will accelerate stimulus in Q3 but stopped short of announcing specific measures. OPEC+ surprised with a 100K barrel per day cut at its Monday meeting though the move is seen as largely symbolic.

TD Ameritrade Network
Bond Market Today Impacted By Inflation & Energy Crisis In Europe

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 5, 2022 5:24


Treasuries broke through the highest levels in yield since June. "Why are interest rates going higher right now? Financial conditions are not as tight as they could be and the VIX or the Fear Index is relatively stable. Even though the stock market today has been selling off, our PCE or Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is double what it was in 2018. The upcoming ECB or European Central Bank is doing most of the heavy lifting due to the energy crisis and record inflation," says Larry Shover.

Lead-Lag Live
Risk Off Behavior Returns With Steve Van Metre

Lead-Lag Live

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 5, 2022 45:30


Treasuries are starting to act like they should.Check The Lead-Lag Report on your favorite social networks.Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theleadlagreportFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/leadlagreportInstagram: https://instagram.com/leadlagreportSign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.See disclosures for The Lead-Lag Report here: The Lead-Lag Report (leadlagreport.com)The Personal Finance PodcastSubscribe now and Master Your Money in Less than 30 Minutes Per Week! Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Americana Partners
Stay Invested - August 2022 Market Commentary

Americana Partners

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2022 45:57


Melissa Giles, Director of Portfolio Management with Americana Partners presents the Monthly Market Commentary as written by, David M Darst, Chief Investment Officer with Americana Partners.  Any charts/graphs referenced are available in print format and may be provided at your request. David is currently the Chief Investment Officer for Americana Partners. David served for 17 years as a Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, with responsibility for Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy; was the founding President of the Morgan Stanley Investment Group; and was founding Chairman of the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Asset Allocation Committee. After 2014, he served for several years as Senior Advisor to and a member of the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Committee. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1996 from Goldman Sachs, where he held Senior Management posts within the Equities Division and earlier, for six years as Resident Manager of their Private Bank in Zurich. David is the Author of twelve books: (i) The Complete Bond Book (McGraw-Hill); (ii) The Handbook of the Bond and Money Markets (McGraw-Hill); (iii) The Art of Asset Allocation, Second Edition (McGraw-Hill); (iv) Mastering the Art of Asset Allocation (McGraw-Hill); (v) Benjamin Graham on Investing (McGraw-Hill); (vi) The Little Book that Saves Your Assets (John Wiley & Sons), which was ranked on the bestseller lists of The New York Times and Business Week; (vii) Portfolio Investment Opportunities in China (John Wiley & Sons); and (x) Portfolio Investment Opportunities in Precious Metals (John Wiley & Sons). His works have been translated into Chinese, Japanese, Russian, German, Korean, Italian, Indonesian, Norwegian, Romanian, and Vietnamese. Seapoint Books published David's eleventh book in 2012 , Voyager 3, containing his creative writing, and in 2016, his twelfth book, Flim-Flam Flora, a children's book coauthored with his daughter. David appears as a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX, PBS, and other television channels, and has contributed numerous articles to Barron's Euromoney, The Money Manager, Forbes.com, The Yale Economic Review, and other publications. He has broadcast and written extensively on asset allocation in the Morgan Stanley biweekly Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation Commentary and in the Firm's Wealth Management monthly publication, Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy Digest, the predecessors of which he launched in 1997. David attended Father Ryan High School in Nashville, Tennessee, graduated from Phillips Exeter Academy, was awarded a BA degree in Economics from Yale University, and earned his MBA from Harvard Business School. David serves on the Investment Committee of the Phi Beta Kappa Foundation and the Advisory Boards of the George Washington Institute for Religious Freedom and the Black Rock Arts Foundation. David has lectured extensively at Wharton, Columbia, INSEAD, and New York University Business Schools, and for nine years, David served as a visiting faculty member at Yale College, Yale School of Management, and Harvard Business School. In November 2011, David was inducted by Quinnipiac University in their Business Leaders Hall of Fame. David is a CFA Charterholder and a member of the New York Society of Security Analysts and the CFA Institute. Join Our Distribution List – For a full copy of our report. Americana Partners - https://www.americanapartners.com/contact/ Americana Partners Website - https://www.americanapartners.com/ Linked In - https://www.linkedin.com/company/americana-partners/ Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/3rX19ND89pwEob9efsFNNF iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/americana-partners/id1496186853 Google Podcasts - https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkLnBvZGJlYW4uY29tL2FtZXJpY2FuYXBhcnRuZXJzL2ZlZWQueG1s?sa=X&ved=0CAYQrrcFahcKEwj4gZrR_OnwAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAg   Disclosures Americana Partners, LLC is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. A copy of Americana Partners' current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, Americana Partners' business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. The tax and legal information contained in this newsletter is general in nature. It should not be construed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Foreign securities, foreign currencies, and securities issued by U.S. entities with substantial foreign operations can involve additional risks relating to political, economic, or regulatory conditions in foreign countries. These risks include fluctuations in foreign currencies; withholding or other taxes; trading, settlement, custodial, and other operational risks; and less stringent investor protection and disclosure standards in some foreign markets. All of these factors can make foreign investments, especially those in emerging markets, more volatile and potentially less liquid than U.S. investments. In addition, foreign markets can perform differently from the U.S. market. Investing involves certain risks, including possible loss of principal. You should understand and carefully consider a strategy's objectives, risks, fees, expenses and other information before investing. The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change and are not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice. Such views do not take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor that receives them. The strategies described herein may not be suitable for all investors. There is no guarantee that the adviser will meet any of its investment objectives. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Indices do not incur costs including the payment of transaction costs, fees and other expenses. This information should not be considered a solicitation or an offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so under the laws of that jurisdiction. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments based on that index. The S&P 500® Index is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of 500 common stocks which are generally representative of the U.S. stock market as a whole. The Nasdaq Composite® Index is the market capitalization-weighted index of over 2,500 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts, common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and tracking stocks, as well as limited partnership interests. The EAFE® Index is a stock index offered by MSCI that covers non-U.S. and Canadian equity markets. It serves as a performance benchmark for the major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australasia, and the Middle East. The EAFE® Index is the oldest international stock index and is commonly called the MSCI EAFE Index. The Russell 2500® is a market-cap-weighted index that includes the smallest 2,500 companies covered in the broad-based Russell 3000 sphere of United States-based listed equities. All 2,500 of the companies included in the Index cover the small- and mid-cap market capitalizations. The Russell 1000® Growth Index is an unmanaged index that measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000® Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of expected price fluctuations in the S&P 500 Index options over the next 30 days. The VIX is calculated in real time by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). P/E or Price to Earnings ratio is indicates the dollar amount an investor can expect to invest in a company in order to receive one dollar of that company's earnings. The Consumer Confidence Survey® reflects prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District; Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The ISM manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), is a monthly indicator of U.S. economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. The Composite Index of Leading Indicators, otherwise known as the Leading Economic Index (LEI), is an index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months. A bond rating is a letter-based credit scoring scheme used to judge the quality and creditworthiness of a bond. The option adjusted spread (OAS) measures the difference in yield between a bond with an embedded option, such as an MBS or callables, with the yield on Treasuries. Mean reversion, in finance, suggests that various phenomena of interest such as asset prices and volatility of returns eventually revert to their long-term average levels. A meme stock is a security that has seen an increase in trading volume after going viral on social media or an online forum. This document may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,”“anticipate,”“should,”“planned,”“estimated,”“potential”and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio' operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward looking statements or examples. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, modified or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Americana Partners. Americana Partners reserves the right, at any time and without notice, to amend, or cease publication of the information contained herein. Certain of the information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources and has not been independently verified. It is made available on an "as is" basis without warranty. Any strategies or investment programs described in this presentation are provided for educational purposes only and are not necessarily indicative of securities offered for sale or private placement offerings available to any investor. The mention of any individual security should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell that security.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Weekly Market Recap - Friday, 2-Sep

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2022 4:09


US equities were down for the week, with major indices lower for the third consecutive week. Treasuries were weaker with the curve steepening, a move that seemed to lack a clear catalyst other than the ongoing flurry of hawkish central-bank takeaways. Materials lagged, seeing weakness across industrial metals and chemicals. Energy was a slight relative outperformer despite weak crude. There were several economic reports of note this week, the primary focus being the August's nonfarm payrolls report. The path of monetary policy remained the central question, with expectations firming for a 75bp Fed rate hike in September.

Thoughts on the Market
Serena Tang: Global Cross-Asset Risk Premiums

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2022 4:18 Very Popular


While markets wrestle with high inflation and recession worries, investors will want to keep an eye on the rise in risk premiums and the outlook for long-run returns.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Head of Cross-Asset Strategy for North America. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll focus on the current state of global cross-asset risk premiums. It's Wednesday, August 31st at 10 a.m. in New York. Markets in 2022 have been incredibly turbulent, and global cross-asset risk premiums have shifted dramatically year to date. Various markets have been buffeted by higher inflation and tighter policy, geopolitical risks and worries about recession. Some impacted much more than others. What this means is that there are segments of markets where risk premiums, that is the excess returns an investor can expect for taking on additional risk, and long-run expected returns look much more attractive than they were at the beginning of the year. And while expected returns and risk premiums have broadly risen, the improvements have been uneven across asset classes and regions. For example, we believe that compared to U.S. stocks, rest-of-world equities have seen equity risk premiums move much higher since December, and currently have an edge over U.S. equities in terms of risk reward, in line with our relative preferences. So let me put some actual numbers around some key regional disparities. Our framework, which incorporates expectations on income, inflation, real earnings growth and valuations, see U.S. equities returning about 7.5% annually over the next decade, compared to just 5.7% at the start of the year. However, a steep climb in U.S. Treasury yields from historical lows mean that from a risk premium perspective, U.S. equities is still below its 20 year historical average by nearly one percentage point. This is in contrast to other regions whose risk premiums have increased significantly more during the sell off. Notably, European equity risk premiums are 8.9%, close to a 20 year high, similarly for emerging markets at 5.3%, and Japanese equity risk premiums at 4.7%, also above average. And remember, higher risk premiums typically signal that it's a good time to invest in riskier assets. For fixed income, with nominal yields rising on the back of more persistent inflationary pressures and quantitative tightening, long-run expected returns are now higher than they were 12 months ago. In fact, we're now back to levels last seen in 2019. Our framework now predicts that ten year U.S. Treasuries can return 3.7% annually over the next decade, up from 2.2% just a year ago. Credit risk premiums, such as for corporate bonds, have also readjusted year to date. As with risk free government bonds, rising yields mean that long run expected returns for these bonds have improved significantly since the start of the year. In terms of numbers, our model forecasts for U.S. high yield risk premium, at 188 basis points compared to near nothing 12 months ago. So what does all this mean? Well, for one thing, as my colleague Andrew Sheets has pointed out in a previous Thoughts on the Market episode, lower prices, wider risk premiums and higher 10 year expected returns have raised our long-run expected returns forecasts for a portfolio of 60% equity and 40% high quality bonds to the highest it's been since 2019, above the 10 year average. So we believe that the case for a 60/40 type of approach remains. For another, it means that the opportunities for investors right now lie in relative value rather than beta, given our strategists macro outlook for the next 12 months is more cautious than our long-run expected forecast. So for example, based on our long-run expected returns, our dollar optimal portfolios favor segments of the markets with more credit risk premium, like high yield and emerging market bonds. And similarly, as I've mentioned before, our current cross-asset allocation has a preference for ex-U.S. equities versus the U.S. because of former's higher equity risk premium. The rest of 2022 will likely continue to be turbulent, but there is good news for investors with a longer term focus. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Wednesday, 31-Aug

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2022 6:20


US equities were lower in Wednesday trading, ending at their worst levels and unable to sustain an early rally for the third-straight time this week; Dow Jones, S&P500, and the Nasdaq closing down 88 basis points, 78 basis points, and 62 basis points respectively. Treasuries were weaker with the curve steepening, ending near their worst levels. The Dollar was weaker vs the euro and a bit firmer on the yen cross. Gold finished down 60 basis points. Bitcoin futures were up 1.7%. WTI crude ended down 2.3%, off its worst levels but extending the 5.5% selloff in the prior session. The Bearish narrative gaining some renewed traction on concerns about elevated valuations, deteriorating technicals, negative seasonals for both market and earnings revisions, heightened ECB hawkishness in the face of heightened growth risks and a lackluster China credit impulse in the face of Covid and property market headwinds.

Turning Hard Times into Good Times
Gold Beats Inflation & Treasury Yields Too!

Turning Hard Times into Good Times

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2022 60:00


Keith Weiner and Michael Oliver return. The U.S. government hates gold because its rising price shines the light on the destruction of the dollar caused by the Federal Reserve's printing press used to finance massive government deficits. The detractors of gold have long suggested that owning gold doesn't make sense because it doesn't pay interest. They can't say that any longer because Monetary Metals now pays interest rates to small investors and large investors at rates that compete with U.S. Treasury rates with interest paid in gold, not increasingly worthless dollars. Keith will explain how leasing or lending your gold brings yields comparable to U.S. Treasuries while avoiding purchasing power losses inherent in owning U.S. Treasuries. Keith will also discuss his macro-economic views and how current events should impact the price of gold into the future. Michael will share his latest insights into the precious metals and other key markets based on his momentum and structural analysis.

Thoughts on the Market
Andrew Sheets: Is Cash an Efficient Asset Allocation?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2022 2:59 Very Popular


Though returns offered by cash have been historically bad over the last 10 years, the tide has begun to turn on cash yields and investors will want to take note.-----Transcript------Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, August 26, at 2 p.m. in London. For much of the last 12 years, the question of whether to hold cash in a portfolio was really a question of negativity. After all, for most of that time, holding cash yielded nothing or less than nothing for those in Europe. Holding it implied you believed almost every other investment option was worse than this low bar. Unsurprisingly, the low returns offered by cash over this period led to... low returns. For 8 of the 10 years from 2010 through 2020, holding cash underperformed both U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasuries. And while cash is often like stocks and bonds over time, the returns to holding cash since 2010 were historically bad. But that's now changing, because cash no longer yields nothing. As central banks have raced to raise rates in the face of high inflation, the return on holding cash or near cash investments has jumped materially. One year ago, a 6 month U.S. Treasury bill yielded 0.04%. It now yields 3.25%. That is 3.25% for an investment with very low volatility backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. That's a higher yield than a U.S. 10 year Treasury bond. It is more than double the dividend yield of the S&P 500 stock index. And it's just a quarter of a percentage point less than the dividend yield on U.S. real estate investment trusts. It's important to note that not all short term liquid investments are created equal. While six month U.S. T-bills now yield 3.25%, the average yield on 6 month bank CD's is less than 1%, and the average U.S. savings account yields just 0.2%. In other words, it pays to shop around. And for those in the business of managing money market and liquidity funds, we think this is a good time to add value and grow assets. What are the market implications? For equity markets, if investors can now receive higher yields on low risk cash, we think it's reasonable to think that that should lead investors to ask for higher returns elsewhere, which should lower valuations on stocks. My colleague Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, sees poor risk reward for U.S. equities at current levels. More broadly, we think it supports holding more U.S. dollar cash in a portfolio. That's true for U.S. investors, but also globally, as we forecast the U.S. dollar to continue to strengthen. Holding cash isn't necessarily a sign of caution, it may simply be efficient allocation to an asset that has recently seen a major jump in yield. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

Americana Partners
Stay Invested - August 2022 (Summary) Market Commentary

Americana Partners

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2022 6:44


Melissa Giles, Director of Portfolio Management with Americana Partners presents the Monthly Market Commentary as written by, David M Darst, Chief Investment Officer with Americana Partners.  Any charts/graphs referenced are available in print format and may be provided at your request. David is currently the Chief Investment Officer for Americana Partners. David served for 17 years as a Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, with responsibility for Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy; was the founding President of the Morgan Stanley Investment Group; and was founding Chairman of the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Asset Allocation Committee. After 2014, he served for several years as Senior Advisor to and a member of the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Committee. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1996 from Goldman Sachs, where he held Senior Management posts within the Equities Division and earlier, for six years as Resident Manager of their Private Bank in Zurich. David is the Author of twelve books: (i) The Complete Bond Book (McGraw-Hill); (ii) The Handbook of the Bond and Money Markets (McGraw-Hill); (iii) The Art of Asset Allocation, Second Edition (McGraw-Hill); (iv) Mastering the Art of Asset Allocation (McGraw-Hill); (v) Benjamin Graham on Investing (McGraw-Hill); (vi) The Little Book that Saves Your Assets (John Wiley & Sons), which was ranked on the bestseller lists of The New York Times and Business Week; (vii) Portfolio Investment Opportunities in China (John Wiley & Sons); and (x) Portfolio Investment Opportunities in Precious Metals (John Wiley & Sons). His works have been translated into Chinese, Japanese, Russian, German, Korean, Italian, Indonesian, Norwegian, Romanian, and Vietnamese. Seapoint Books published David's eleventh book in 2012 , Voyager 3, containing his creative writing, and in 2016, his twelfth book, Flim-Flam Flora, a children's book coauthored with his daughter. David appears as a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX, PBS, and other television channels, and has contributed numerous articles to Barron's Euromoney, The Money Manager, Forbes.com, The Yale Economic Review, and other publications. He has broadcast and written extensively on asset allocation in the Morgan Stanley biweekly Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation Commentary and in the Firm's Wealth Management monthly publication, Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy Digest, the predecessors of which he launched in 1997. David attended Father Ryan High School in Nashville, Tennessee, graduated from Phillips Exeter Academy, was awarded a BA degree in Economics from Yale University, and earned his MBA from Harvard Business School. David serves on the Investment Committee of the Phi Beta Kappa Foundation and the Advisory Boards of the George Washington Institute for Religious Freedom and the Black Rock Arts Foundation. David has lectured extensively at Wharton, Columbia, INSEAD, and New York University Business Schools, and for nine years, David served as a visiting faculty member at Yale College, Yale School of Management, and Harvard Business School. In November 2011, David was inducted by Quinnipiac University in their Business Leaders Hall of Fame. David is a CFA Charterholder and a member of the New York Society of Security Analysts and the CFA Institute. Join Our Distribution List – For a full copy of our report. Americana Partners - https://www.americanapartners.com/contact/ Americana Partners Website - https://www.americanapartners.com/ Linked In - https://www.linkedin.com/company/americana-partners/ Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/3rX19ND89pwEob9efsFNNF iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/americana-partners/id1496186853 Google Podcasts - https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkLnBvZGJlYW4uY29tL2FtZXJpY2FuYXBhcnRuZXJzL2ZlZWQueG1s?sa=X&ved=0CAYQrrcFahcKEwj4gZrR_OnwAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAg   Disclosures Americana Partners, LLC is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. A copy of Americana Partners' current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, Americana Partners' business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. The tax and legal information contained in this newsletter is general in nature. It should not be construed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Foreign securities, foreign currencies, and securities issued by U.S. entities with substantial foreign operations can involve additional risks relating to political, economic, or regulatory conditions in foreign countries. These risks include fluctuations in foreign currencies; withholding or other taxes; trading, settlement, custodial, and other operational risks; and less stringent investor protection and disclosure standards in some foreign markets. All of these factors can make foreign investments, especially those in emerging markets, more volatile and potentially less liquid than U.S. investments. In addition, foreign markets can perform differently from the U.S. market. Investing involves certain risks, including possible loss of principal. You should understand and carefully consider a strategy's objectives, risks, fees, expenses and other information before investing. The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change and are not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice. Such views do not take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor that receives them. The strategies described herein may not be suitable for all investors. There is no guarantee that the adviser will meet any of its investment objectives. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Indices do not incur costs including the payment of transaction costs, fees and other expenses. This information should not be considered a solicitation or an offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so under the laws of that jurisdiction. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments based on that index. The S&P 500® Index is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of 500 common stocks which are generally representative of the U.S. stock market as a whole. The Nasdaq Composite® Index is the market capitalization-weighted index of over 2,500 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts, common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and tracking stocks, as well as limited partnership interests. The EAFE® Index is a stock index offered by MSCI that covers non-U.S. and Canadian equity markets. It serves as a performance benchmark for the major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australasia, and the Middle East. The EAFE® Index is the oldest international stock index and is commonly called the MSCI EAFE Index. The Russell 2500® is a market-cap-weighted index that includes the smallest 2,500 companies covered in the broad-based Russell 3000 sphere of United States-based listed equities. All 2,500 of the companies included in the Index cover the small- and mid-cap market capitalizations. The Russell 1000® Growth Index is an unmanaged index that measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000® Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of expected price fluctuations in the S&P 500 Index options over the next 30 days. The VIX is calculated in real time by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). P/E or Price to Earnings ratio is indicates the dollar amount an investor can expect to invest in a company in order to receive one dollar of that company's earnings. The Consumer Confidence Survey® reflects prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District; Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The ISM manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), is a monthly indicator of U.S. economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. The Composite Index of Leading Indicators, otherwise known as the Leading Economic Index (LEI), is an index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months. A bond rating is a letter-based credit scoring scheme used to judge the quality and creditworthiness of a bond. The option adjusted spread (OAS) measures the difference in yield between a bond with an embedded option, such as an MBS or callables, with the yield on Treasuries. Mean reversion, in finance, suggests that various phenomena of interest such as asset prices and volatility of returns eventually revert to their long-term average levels. A meme stock is a security that has seen an increase in trading volume after going viral on social media or an online forum. This document may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,”“anticipate,”“should,”“planned,”“estimated,”“potential”and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio' operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward looking statements or examples. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, modified or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Americana Partners. Americana Partners reserves the right, at any time and without notice, to amend, or cease publication of the information contained herein. Certain of the information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources and has not been independently verified. It is made available on an "as is" basis without warranty. Any strategies or investment programs described in this presentation are provided for educational purposes only and are not necessarily indicative of securities offered for sale or private placement offerings available to any investor. The mention of any individual security should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell that security.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Wednesday, 24-Aug

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2022 5:36


US equities ended higher in an uneventful Wednesday session; the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq finishing up 18 basis points, 29 basis points, and 41 basis points respectively. Treasuries were weaker across the curve with yields near their worst levels following today's soft five-year note auction. It was a very quiet session with the market remaining in waiting mode for Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole and PCE prices on Friday. July durable-goods orders were flat after four consecutive monthly gains, but core capital-goods orders were higher. July existing-home sales declined, but not as much as feared amid some moderation in mortgage rates. Urban Outfitters and Petco earnings missed expectations, Toll Brothers saw larger than expected order decline, but Intuit posted strong results and raised guidance.

Arcadia Economics
Rafi Farber: The Fed's Losses are Real, and They're Spectacular

Arcadia Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2022 18:48


Rafi Farber - The Fed's Losses are Real, and They're Spectacular Can a money printer actually lose money? 100% yes. In fact, the Federal Reserve is now the Federal Reverse, and now has over $1 TRILLION in unrealized losses on its balance sheet. That's what happens when you own ungodly amounts of Treasuries and then hike interest rates. These are by far the steepest losses the Fed has ever experienced. There was only one time in history when we saw anything remotely similar: The late 1970s when Paul Volcker hiked rates to 20%, and gold and silver made their moonshots. Watch today's Silver Report for the numbers on this. And yes, they're real, and they're spectacular. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - To get Arcadia silver videos delivered straight to your email inbox click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver - Follow Arcadia Economics on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To receive updates about Arcadia option trading events: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/options/ - #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD)Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Arcadia Economics
Rafi Farber: Fed's Losses are Real, and They're Spectacular

Arcadia Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2022 18:48


Rafi Farber - The Fed's Losses are Real, and They're Spectacular Can a money printer actually lose money? 100% yes. In fact, the Federal Reserve is now the Federal Reverse, and now has over $1 TRILLION in unrealized losses on its balance sheet. That's what happens when you own ungodly amounts of Treasuries and then hike interest rates. These are by far the steepest losses the Fed has ever experienced. There was only one time in history when we saw anything remotely similar: The late 1970s when Paul Volcker hiked rates to 20%, and gold and silver made their moonshots. Watch today's Silver Report for the numbers on this. And yes, they're real, and they're spectacular. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - To get Arcadia silver videos delivered straight to your email inbox click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver - Follow Arcadia Economics on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To receive updates about Arcadia option trading events: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/options/ - #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD)Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Worldwide Exchange
Are Treasuries Being Too Cautious or Are Equities Being Too Optimistic? 8/18/22

Worldwide Exchange

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 18, 2022 45:15


Oil prices are holding steady today as trades deal with falling stockpiles in the U.S., increasing production from Russia, and the ongoing worries about a possible global recession. King Operating Corp CEO Jay Young discusses the outlook for these market dynamics. Plus, the Fed expects to continue hiking interest rates until inflation cools, according to its July meeting minutes. Washington Crossing Advisors' Kevin Caron breaks down what that means for the economy. And, how confident should investors be as equities continue to rally? Steward Partners Global Advisory's Eric Beiley weighs in.

Real Vision Presents...
Is All the Bad News Priced In?

Real Vision Presents...

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 16, 2022 36:02 Very Popular


The People's Bank of China got the week started with surprise rate cuts on domestic growth concerns, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Survey on general business conditions for August registered its second-biggest slide since 2001, and the National Association of Home Buyers/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index declined for the eighth straight month. But all three major U.S. equity indexes were higher heading into the close, as Treasury yields continued to drift lower. Perhaps investors anticipate a Federal Reserve pivot. Perhaps they're pricing in a selloff in crude oil. Has the larger trend shifted? “We have NEVER seen a time in history like this,” tweeted Michael Gayed in July, “where a significant drawdown in Treasuries matched a significant drawdown in stocks (which may not be over).” Gayed, the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report, joins Maggie Lake for today's Daily Briefing to talk about stocks, bonds, and the rising risk of demand destruction because of Fed rate hikes just as supply chains come back on line. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices