Podcasts about treasuries

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/LT rates are up and you know what that means: get ready for a flood of claims deficits suddenly now matter. They don't (sadly), at least not for bonds, and we know they don't because not all the yield curve maturities are seeing selling. The one spot on the curve you always want to watch is sending another major warning, and it isn't too many Treasuries. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The supply of homes for sale hit a nearly five-year high in April, but prospective buyers aren't exactly taking the bait. Some may feel they're swimming in options, but many can't afford what's available. In this episode, why the spring housing market is feeling unbalanced. Plus, online restaurant reservation platforms duke it out with the help of credit card companies, big cities grow bigger and investors see U.S. Treasuries as an increasingly risky option.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org and consider making an investment in our future. 

Our analysts Serena Tang and Seth Carpenter discuss Morgan Stanley's out-of-consensus view on U.S. exceptionalism, and how investors should position their portfolios given the current market uncertainty.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: Today, we're going to pick up the conversation where we left it off, talking about our mid-year outlook; but this time I get to ask Serena the questions.It's Thursday, May 22nd at 10am in New York.Serena, we're back for part two of this podcast. Let's jump in where we left off. We've seen a lot of policy surprise in the last six months. We've had a big sell off in the beginning of April, in part inspired by all of this uncertainty.What are you telling clients? What do you think investors should be doing? How should they be positioning their portfolios in the current circumstances?Serena: So, we are recommending going overweight in U.S. equities and going overweight in core fixed income like U.S. treasuries and like investment grade corporate credit. And we have a very strong preference for U.S. over rest of the world assets, except the dollar. Now I think for us, the main message is that you have global growth slowing, which is what you talked about yesterday.But you know, risky assets can look past the low growth and do well, while treasuries can look forward to the many Fed cuts you guys are expecting in 2026 and rally. But if I look at valuations that does suggest equities and credit have completely, almost priced out, growth slowdown odds. Meaning that I think there is still some downside and we'd recommend quality across the board.Seth: In your judgment then, looking around the world at all the different asset classes, how well, or perhaps how poorly, are those asset classes priced for the sort of macro views that we were just discussing?Serena: So I think the market that's probably least priced for the slowing economy that you and your team have been forecasting is really in the government bond space. I think the prospect of a lot more Fed cuts than what is currently priced into the market will lower government bond yields, particularly starting in 2026.As you know, our rates team has a target of 3.45 percent for U.S. Treasury 10-year yields, and 2.6 percent for U.S. Treasury two-year yields. Meaning that we also get a steeper curve by this time next year. And this translates to more than 10 percent of total returns for U.S. Treasuries – very attractive; in large part because the markets aren't priced for the Fed scenario that you and your team are forecasting.Seth: Let me, then push a little bit on one of the things that I've been talking to clients about, or at least been asked about, which is the dollar. The role of the dollar? U.S. exceptionalism? Is it real?Serena: Yeah that's a great question because I think this is where we are the most out of consensus. If you've noticed, all of our views right now really line up as us being pretty constructive on U.S. dollar assets. Like at a time when everyone's still really debating the end of U.S. exceptionalism. And we really push back against the idea that foreign investors would or should abandon U.S. assets significantly.There are very few alternatives to U.S. dollar assets right now. I mean, like if you look at investible stock market cap, U.S. is nearly five times the size of the next biggest market, which is Europe. And in the fixed income side of things, more than half of liquid high grade fixed income paper is in U.S. dollars.Now, even if there were significant outflows from U.S. dollar assets, there are very few places that money can find a haven, safe or otherwise. This is not to say there won't ever be any other alternatives to U.S. dollar assets in the future. But that shift in market size takes time, which means that TINA -- there is no alternative -- remains a theme for now.Seth: That view on the dollar weakening from here, it's baked into my team's economic forecast. It's baked into the strategy team's forecast across research. So then let me take it one step forward. What does all this mean about portfolio preferences, your recommendation for clients when when they're investing in assets that are not U.S. dollar denominated.Serena: You are right. I mean, if there's one U.S. asset that we just like, it's the U.S. dollar. So, you know, over the next 12 months we expect key factors, which drove the dollar strength. You know, positive growth, yield differentials relative to other G10 economies. Those factors will fade substantially. And we also think because of the political uncertainty in the U.S. currency hedging ratios on exposure to U.S. assets may increase, which could further pressure the U.S. dollar. So, our FX team sees euro/dollar at 1.25 and dollar/yen at 1.30 by the second quarter of 2026.Which means that we're really recommending non-U.S. dollar investors to buy U.S. stocks and fixed income on an FX hedge basis.Seth: If we look forward but focus just on the next, call it three to six months; what asset classes, or if you want, what regions around the world are best positioned, and what would you say to investors?Serena: So, you're right. I think there is a big difference between what we like over the next three to six months versus what we like over the next 12 months. Because if I look at U.S. equities and U.S. government bonds, both of which we're overweight on most of the gains, probably won't happen until the first half of next year because you have to have U.S. equities really feeling the tailwind of dollar weakness. And you need to have U.S. government bond investors to grow more confident that we will get all of those Fed cuts next year.What we do like over the next three to six months and feel pretty highly convicted on is really U.S. investment grade corporate credit, which we think can, you know, do well in the second half of this year and do well in the first half of next year.Seth: But then let's take a step back [be]cause I think investors around the world are wrestling with a lot of the same issues. They're talking to, you know, strategists like us at lots of different places. What would you say are our most out of consensus views right now?Serena: I think we're pretty out of consensus on our preference for U.S. and U.S. dollar assets. As I mentioned, there was still a huge debate on the end of U.S. exceptionalism. Now the other place where I think it's notable is we're much more bullish on U.S. treasuries than what's being priced into markets and where consensus is. And I think that's really been driven by your economics team being much more convicted on many Fed cuts in 2026.And the last thing I would point out here is, again, we're more bearish than consensus on the dollar. If I look at euro/dollar, if I look at dollar/yen, the kind of appreciation we're forecasting for at around through 10 percent, is higher than I think what most investors are expecting at the moment.Now back to Seth. Given all of the uncertainty around U.S. fiscal, trade, and industrial policy, what indicators are you watching to assess whether global growth is becoming more fragile or more resilient?Seth: Yeah, it's a great question. It's always difficult to monitor in real time how things are going, especially with these sorts of shocks. We are looking at a bunch of the shipping data to see how trade flows are going. There was clearly some front-running into the United States of imports to try to get ahead of tariffs. There's got to be some payback for that. I think the question becomes where do we settle in when it comes to trade?I'm going to be looking in the U.S. at the labor market to see signs of reduced demand for labor. But also try to pay attention to what's going on with the supply of labor from immigration restriction. And then there are all the normal indicators about spending, especially consumer spending. Consumer spending tends to drive a lot of the big developed market economies around the world and how well that holds up or doesn't. That's going to be key to the overall outlook.Serena: Thank you so much, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Seth: Serena, I could talk to you all day.Serena: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The supply of homes for sale hit a nearly five-year high in April, but prospective buyers aren't exactly taking the bait. Some may feel they're swimming in options, but many can't afford what's available. In this episode, why the spring housing market is feeling unbalanced. Plus, online restaurant reservation platforms duke it out with the help of credit card companies, big cities grow bigger and investors see U.S. Treasuries as an increasingly risky option.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org and consider making an investment in our future. 

Tackle Roth IRA strategies, dollar cost averaging, passive investing risks, strategic retirement withdrawals, and more. Whether you're planning early retirement or optimizing your current portfolio, Wes and Christa deliver actionable insights and answer listener questions, including: • Is Passive Investing Creating a Bubble? Are index funds inflating markets? Or do global diversification and ongoing price discovery demonstrate otherwise? Is it a mistake to dismiss all active strategies? • Roth IRA Allocation Roth IRAs often have the longest time horizon. Does that make them ideal for more aggressive, all-stock index fund investing? • How to Diversify an IRA After a Rollover Is it helpful to go beyond S&P 500 funds with mid- and small-caps? Treasuries? Corporates? REITs? Commodities? Energy pipeline investments? • Avoid Paying Roth Conversion Taxes from a Roth? Does it reduce long-term value to use Roth funds to pay taxes on a conversion? Is it okay to spread conversions over several years? • What Is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)? DCA can help reduce timing risk by investing consistently over time. Is it beneficial for large cash amounts and emotional ease? • Investing a Lump Sum? What About a 50/50 Split? Should you consider investing half up front and dollar cost averaging the rest over several months for balanced risk and reward? • Effective Withdrawal Strategy in Retirement Is it more strategic to pull from bonds/cash rather than stocks in down markets? • Should You Use Target Date Funds? They can be handy early in your career, but do some get too conservative by retirement age? • Is the Reverse Glide Path Worth It? Starting conservative and getting more aggressive later may look good on paper, but does its complexity overshoot its practicality in real life? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we examine the "sell U.S." trade Plus, Robbie sits down with Finance of America's Ashley Smith and Ryan Schmidt to talk about why reverse mortgages deserve more attention from the broader mortgage industry and what's holding back adoption. And we discuss why U.S. Treasuries aren't behaving like normal in this volatile environment.Xactus is a leading fintech committed to the continued transformation of the mortgage verification industry. Pioneering a new class of technology – Intelligent Verification – Xactus is redefining how the industry originates and services mortgages. With Xactus360, our industry-first Intelligent Verification Platform, we put the full power of the market's leading verification partner into a user-centric technology that harnesses real-time insights to power automated actions enabling clients to make faster, better decisions with the right data at the right time. 

Discover why mortgage rates are rising and what it means for housing costs. Are you investing well for financial freedom...or not? Financial freedom is a combination of money, compounding and time (my McT Formula). How well you invest, makes a huge difference to your financial future and lifestyle. If you only knew where to invest for the long-term, what a difference it would make, because the difference between investing $100k and earning 5 percent or 10 percent on your money over 30 years, is the difference between it growing to $432,194 or $1,744,940, an increase of over $1.3 million dollars. Your compounding rate, and how well you invest, matters!  INTERESTED IN THE BE WEALTHY & SMART VIP EXPERIENCE? - Invest in stock ETFs, private equity and digital assets for potential high compounding rates - Asset allocation model with ticker symbols and % to invest -Monthly LIVE investment webinars with Linda, with Q & A -Private VIP Facebook group with daily interaction -Weekly investment commentary from Linda -Optional 1-on-1 tech team support for digital assets -Join, pay once, have lifetime access! NO recurring fees. -US and foreign investors, no minimum $ amount to invest For a limited time, enjoy a 50% savings on my private investing group, the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Pay once and enjoy lifetime access without any additional cost. Enter "SAVE50" to save 50% here: http://tinyurl.com/InvestingVIP Or have a complimentary conversation to answer your questions. Request a free appointment to talk with Linda here: https://tinyurl.com/TalkWithLinda (yes, you talk to Linda!). WANT HELP AVOIDING IRS AUDITS? #Ad Stop worrying about IRS audits and get advance warning at Crypto Tax Audit, here. PLEASE REVIEW THE PODCAST ON ITUNES If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe and leave a review. I love hearing from you! I so appreciate it! SUBSCRIBE TO BE WEALTHY & SMART Click Here to Subscribe Via iTunes Click Here to Subscribe Via Stitcher on an Android Device Click Here to Subscribe Via RSS Feed   PLEASE LEAVE A BOOK REVIEW FOR THE CRYPTO INVESTING BOOK Get my book, "3 Steps to Quantum Wealth: The Wealth Heiress' Guide to Financial Freedom by Investing in Cryptocurrencies". After you purchase the book, go here for your Crypto Book bonus: https://lindapjones.com/bookbonus PLEASE LEAVE A BOOK REVIEW FOR WEALTH BOOK Leave a book review on Amazon here. Get my book, “You're Already a Wealth Heiress, Now Think and Act Like One: 6 Practical Steps to Make It a Reality Now!” Men love it too! After all, you are Wealth Heirs. :) Available for purchase on Amazon. International buyers (if you live outside of the US) get my book here. WANT MORE FROM LINDA? Check out her programs. Join her on Instagram. WEALTH LIBRARY OF PODCASTS Listen to the full wealth library of podcasts from the beginning. Use the search bar in the upper right corner of the page to search topics. SPECIAL DEALS #Ad Apply for a Gemini credit card and get FREE XRP back (or any crypto you choose) when you use the card. Charge $3000 in first 90 days and earn $200 in crypto rewards when you use this link to apply and are approved: https://tinyurl.com/geminixrp This is a credit card, NOT a debit card. There are great rewards. Set your choice to EARN FREE XRP! #Ad Protect yourself online with a Virtual Private Network (VPN). Get 3 MONTHS FREE when you sign up for a NORD VPN plan here.  #Ad To safely and securely store crypto, I recommend using a Tangem wallet. Get a 10% discount when you purchase here. #Ad If you are looking to simplify your crypto tax reporting, use Koinly. It is highly recommended and so easy for tax reporting. You can save $20, click here. Be Wealthy & Smart,™ is a personal finance show with self-made millionaire Linda P. Jones, America's Wealth Mentor.™ Learn simple steps that make a big difference to your financial freedom.  (Some links are affiliate links. There is no additional cost to you.)

Storm Rundd, President of Oklahoma Bitcoin Association, discusses the status of state Bitcoin strategic reserve bills, legislative processes, funding sources, and opportunity costs. The conversation also covers vibe coding and AI's impact on future business models.You're listening to Bitcoin Season 2. Subscribe to the newsletter, trusted by over 7,000 Bitcoiners: https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.comStorm Rund, President of the Oklahoma Bitcoin Association, joins us to discuss the state of Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bills across the US. Storm breaks down the complex legislative process, explains why many bills fail despite strong support, and compares treasurer vs. pension fund approaches. He introduces the opportunity cost tracker that shows how much money states have lost by rejecting Bitcoin. The conversation concludes with insights on vibe coding, AI productivity, and how these technologies will reshape business models.Follow our guests: @Storm_R0Notes:- Over half of US states have proposed SBR bills- Oklahoma SBR bill passed 77-15 then died in committee- Pension funds typically 4x larger than state funds- 5% Bitcoin allocation = $500M opportunity cost- Montana SBR had $50M cap with specific fund source- AI changing labor market in big tech companiesTimestamps:00:00 Start01:31 Current Bitcoin Reserve landscape03:31 Bill process07:05 Oklahoma example11:53 Funding these state SBRs12:43 Bill design matters17:55 Bill funding19:54 Treasury vs Pension funds27:03 Crafting better bills33:53 Opportunity cost tool43:50 Vibe coding49:07 AI changing business-

The Dollar Standard, Global Liquidity, and the Coming Economic Reckoning In my expansive and highly accessible conversation with renowned economist Richard Duncan, we discuss the logic behind his long-running critique of the international monetary system, a system Richard calls the Dollar Standard where he explains why current U.S. policy moves, the system could come crashing down.   The Origins of the Dollar Standard and America's “Exorbitant Privilege” The Dollar Standard, Duncan explains, evolved out of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system (implemented after WWII) in 1971. Under Bretton Woods, currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the dollar was pegged to gold. But when other countries accumulated more dollars than the U.S. had gold, President Nixon suspended dollar convertibility, effectively ending the gold standard.   What replaced it was a floating currency regime and the birth of the Dollar Standard. Crucially, the U.S. began running persistent trade deficits, importing goods and sending dollars abroad. These dollars, in turn, were recycled by foreign central banks, especially in trade surplus countries like China and Japan, into U.S. dollar-denominated assets, primarily Treasuries, but also equities and real estate.   This loop, Duncan argues, created America's “exorbitant privilege”: the ability to fund government spending and consumer imports at artificially low interest rates, because foreign buyers are constantly reinvesting in U.S. debt and assets.   The phrase "exorbitant privilege" was first coined by Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, who later became President of France, but at the time was serving as France's Minister of Finance under President Charles de Gaulle in the 1960s.   He used the term to criticize the unique advantages enjoyed by the United States under the Bretton Woods system, particularly the ability to run persistent deficits by issuing debt in its own currency (the U.S. dollar), while foreign nations had to hold and use those dollars to trade and build reserves.   Giscard and de Gaulle saw this as an unfair financial hegemony that allowed the U.S. to “live beyond its means” at the expense of others. The phrase was intended as a critique but, ironically, it's now often used in a neutral or even admiring tone by economists.   How Global Credit Became a Bubble Machine Duncan makes the case that this system, while benefiting the U.S. enormously, has been fundamentally destabilizing for the rest of the world.   As surplus countries absorb dollar inflows, their central banks convert them into local currency, often by printing their own money. That liquidity ends up in domestic banking systems, fueling excessive credit growth, asset bubbles, and financial crises.   It happened in Japan in the late 1980s. It triggered the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s. And it helped fuel China's real estate boom and the global credit bubble that preceded the 2008 collapse.   Notably, Duncan predicted the 2008 financial crisis in his 2003 book, The Dollar Crisis, warning that runaway global imbalances would eventually lead to a systemic shock. He now argues that post-2008 bailouts and quantitative easing (QE) only expanded the bubble rather than fixing the problem.   Trump's Trade Doctrine: Potential to Destabilize the System Fast forward to 2025: Trump is back in office, and his administration is moving quickly to reshape global trade.   Duncan's concern is that the Trump administration's effort to eliminate the U.S. trade deficit by imposing high tariffs and pursuing a strategic devaluation of the dollar, undermines the very structure that has sustained U.S. prosperity and global financial stability for decades. Why? Because every U.S. trade deficit is matched by a capital inflow. It's a balance-of-payments identity: if the U.S. runs a $1.1 trillion current account deficit, there must be a $1.1 trillion capital surplus (i.e., inflows) to finance it.   Take that away and you choke off the supply of global liquidity that props up asset prices worldwide.   The Doom Loop: What Happens If Capital Stops Flowing In Duncan walks through the scenario: If tariffs succeed in shrinking the trade deficit, dollars stop flowing abroad. Without those dollars, foreign central banks have fewer reserves to recycle into U.S. assets. This reduces demand for Treasuries, pushing interest rates up. Rising rates crush real estate, stocks, and credit-dependent sectors. Simultaneously, trade-surplus economies face a liquidity crunch, leading to job losses, bankruptcies, and potential financial crises. The result? A global depression triggered not by market excess this time, but by deliberate government policy.   Duncan notes that the Trump administration has already blinked once in rolling back tariffs on China after markets began to seize. But the damage to global confidence in the dollar's stability and America's reliability as a trading partner may already be done.   CRE-Specific Risks For CRE professionals, Duncan's framework suggests several key risks: Interest Rate Volatility: If capital inflows decline, Treasury demand will fall and rates may rise, increasing financing costs and repricing assets downward. Foreign Capital Flight: A weakening dollar and escalating trade tensions could lead to foreign divestment from U.S. real estate, especially in coastal gateway cities where foreign investors are dominant. Liquidity Shock: Reduced global liquidity may tighten credit markets, making debt financing harder to access for new acquisitions or refis. Wealth Effect Reversal: Falling stock prices and higher rates could curb consumer spending and investor confidence, affecting retail, hospitality, and housing-linked CRE. Is There a Way Out? Despite the dire tone, Duncan offers a constructive alternative. In his more recent book, The Money Revolution, he advocates using the U.S. government's borrowing capacity, enabled by dollar dominance and low rates, to invest aggressively in future-focused industries: AI, biotech, quantum computing, green energy.   In short: inflate productively, not destructively. Use fiat-financed public investment to grow out of the debt bubble, rather than letting it implode through austerity or protectionism. But he acknowledges that political will may be lacking and that, without it, the only other option will be another round of massive QE when the next crisis hits.   Final Thought Duncan's message is clear: we are not playing by gold standard rules anymore. The U.S. economy, and the world's, runs on confidence, liquidity, and the flow of capital. Disrupt that system and we may find ourselves testing whether the Fed and Treasury can reflate the bubble one more time. *** You may not agree with Richard's perspective but, as a real estate investor, understanding differing points of view helps in underwriting investment risk by incorporating possible downsides into exit strategies.   This is a fascinating and accessible discussion. Tune in if you want to understand the real risks underpinning your real estate investment decisions in the coming months.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000    

Connect with Onramp // Jackson Mikalic on X // Ethan Peck on X // Strive Asset ManagementScarce Assets: a biweekly podcast presented by Onramp which delves into the emergent role of bitcoin in finance professionals' strategies and outlooks. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Scarce Assets provides invaluable insights for wealth managers aiming to outperform their peers in the decades ahead. Finance professionals everywhere know about stocks and bonds, but the macroeconomic outlook requires that serious investors pay close attention to another category: Scarce Assets.00:00 - Intro to Ethan Peck and His Role at Strive06:27 - The Shift from ESG to Bitcoin Advocacy09:11 - Engagement Strategies and Shareholder Proposals12:00 - Challenges of Bitcoin Adoption in Corporations16:45 - Identifying Internal Advocates for Bitcoin21:19 - Bitcoin as the Real Hurdle Rate24:05 - Capital Allocation Decisions and Bitcoin30:11 - The Necessity of Bitcoin Adoption for Survival32:20 - The Role of Shareholder Activism in Bitcoin Adoption37:14 - Corporate Governance and Bitcoin Treasury Companies39:50 - The Evolving Landscape of Bitcoin Asset Management54:13 - Future Trends in Bitcoin Adoption and Structured Products01:01:24 - Navigating SEC Regulations and Corporate Proposals01:10:25 - Outro and DisclaimerPlease subscribe to Onramp Media channels and sign up for weekly Research & Analysis to get access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we go through day two of MBA's Secondary Conference from New York City. Plus, Robbie sits down with Optimal Blue's Mike Vough to discuss advances in capital markets technology. And the podcast concludes with a look at why U.S. Treasuries aren't behaving like normal.Xactus is a leading fintech committed to the continued transformation of the mortgage verification industry. Pioneering a new class of technology – Intelligent Verification – Xactus is redefining how the industry originates and services mortgages. With Xactus360, our industry-first Intelligent Verification Platform, we put the full power of the market's leading verification partner into a user-centric technology that harnesses real-time insights to power automated actions enabling clients to make faster, better decisions with the right data at the right time. 

In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds or the economy? It's not what the mainstream thinks it does.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg What the US Losing Its Last AAA Credit Rating Meanshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/us-lost-moody-s-aaa-credit-rating-what-s-at-stake-for-marketsS&P Global August 5, 2011https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6802837Fitch August 1, 2023https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The US may be stepping back from its role as mediator in the war in Ukraine, and US long-term borrowing costs rose to their highest level since late 2023 on Monday. US drugmaker Regeneron has agreed to buy 23andMe out of bankruptcy, and the EU and the UK have announced a deal to “reset” their relationship at a summit in London. Mentioned in this podcast:Trump leaves Russia and Ukraine to settle war in talks US borrowing costs climb after Moody's downgrade 23andMe sold out of bankruptcy to RegeneronUK-EU post-Brexit reset: the key pointsToday's FT News Briefing was produced by Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Sam Giovinco, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Topher Forhecz is the FT's acting co-head of audio. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are investors dangerously ignoring risk? Despite signs of slowing economic growth, elevated valuations, and geopolitical uncertainty, markets continue to trend higher with remarkably low volatility. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn address whether or not markets too complacent, remembering wedding anniversaries, and whether the ratings agencies are to be believed: Why even rate Treasuries at all? A look at bad headlines (If it bleeds, it leads), and whether now is a terrible time to retire; the reality that markets don't really care about anything but forward earnings guidance. We'll explore why investor sentiment appears disconnected from fundamentals, what past periods of complacency have taught us, and how to identify the early warning signs of risk being mispriced. If you're concerned about market bubbles, overconfidence, or “this time is different” thinking, this episode offers important context — and caution. SEG-1: Moody Downgrade, CBO Projections, & Buy the Dip SEG-2a: Happy Anniversary - Tomorrow SEG-2b: Why Have Ratings on Treasuries? SEG-3a: Retirement Income Empowerment tease (registration link below) SEG-3b: Bad Headlines, Retirement Timing, & AC/DC-Squirrel! SEG-4: All Markets Care About is Forward Earnings Guidance Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8MpeSQZeRs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1309s ------- Articles mention in this show: "USA Versus JNJ" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/usa-versus-jnj/ "Moody's Debt Downgrade – Does It Matter?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/moodys-debt-downgrade-does-it-matter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Patience, Grasshopper," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEQXlux8Yfg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Moody's Debt Downgrade – Does It Matter?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UP8yVn_65v0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Register for our next in-person event, "Retirement Income Empowerment Workshop," June 14, 2025: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2025-05-08/ysxr ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestorPatience #MarketRally #MarketPullback #BuyTheDip #RaiseCash #MarketConsolidation #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #MoodysDowngrade #CreditRating #DebtCrisis #BondMarket #USCreditRisk #MarketComplacency #InvestorSentiment #MarketRisk #StockMarketTrends #BubbleWarning #RetirementPlanning #RetireSmart #InflationAndRetirement #FinancialFreedom #MarketTiming #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Are investors dangerously ignoring risk? Despite signs of slowing economic growth, elevated valuations, and geopolitical uncertainty, markets continue to trend higher with remarkably low volatility. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn address whether or not markets too complacent, remembering wedding anniversaries, and whether the ratings agencies are to be believed: Why even rate Treasuries at all? A look at bad headlines (If it bleeds, it leads), and whether now is a terrible time to retire; the reality that markets don't really care about anything but forward earnings guidance. We'll explore why investor sentiment appears disconnected from fundamentals, what past periods of complacency have taught us, and how to identify the early warning signs of risk being mispriced. If you're concerned about market bubbles, overconfidence, or “this time is different” thinking, this episode offers important context — and caution. SEG-1: Moody Downgrade, CBO Projections, & Buy the Dip SEG-2a: Happy Anniversary - Tomorrow SEG-2b: Why Have Ratings on Treasuries? SEG-3a: Retirement Income Empowerment tease (registration link below) SEG-3b: Bad Headlines, Retirement Timing, & AC/DC-Squirrel! SEG-4: All Markets Care About is Forward Earnings Guidance Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8MpeSQZeRs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1309s ------- Articles mention in this show: "USA Versus JNJ" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/usa-versus-jnj/ "Moody's Debt Downgrade – Does It Matter?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/moodys-debt-downgrade-does-it-matter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Patience, Grasshopper," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEQXlux8Yfg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Moody's Debt Downgrade – Does It Matter?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UP8yVn_65v0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s ------- Register for our next in-person event, "Retirement Income Empowerment Workshop," June 14, 2025: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2025-05-08/ysxr ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestorPatience #MarketRally #MarketPullback #BuyTheDip #RaiseCash #MarketConsolidation #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #MoodysDowngrade #CreditRating #DebtCrisis #BondMarket #USCreditRisk #MarketComplacency #InvestorSentiment #MarketRisk #StockMarketTrends #BubbleWarning #RetirementPlanning #RetireSmart #InflationAndRetirement #FinancialFreedom #MarketTiming #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

00:00 Intro01:10 China's Economy Takes a Hit from US Tariffs03:07 Trump Tells Walmart to ‘Eat the Tariffs'05:04 White House Press Secretary: China Needs Our Consumers05:35 Trump: Invest in US Not China07:41 Shooting Kills at Least 1 at Restaurant in Wuhan08:45 Official, Local Reports Confirm COVID-19 Rising in China11:20 Taiwan Responds to Communist Chinese Flag Planted on Beach12:42 Taiwan President Nears 1-Year Mark Amid Tensions13:54 Bipartisan House Panel Warns of CCP's Threat to Taiwan15:33 Lee: China Uses Millions of Bots for Propaganda, Military21:12 U.S. Treasury Dept.: China Sells $18.9b Treasuries

Connect with Early Riders // Connect with OnrampPresented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media...Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering the underlying mechanics of the bitcoin protocol, its ongoing development and funding, and real-world applications of the technology.00:00 - Introduction and Market Overview02:51 - Bond Yields and Economic Implications06:00 - The Role of AI in Economic Deflation09:04 - Bitcoin's Position in a Changing Economy11:52 - Challenges in AI Investment15:09 - The Future of SaaS and AI17:53 - The Impact of Bitcoin on Business Models21:02 - The Consciousness Shift in Understanding Bitcoin23:54 - The Role of Curiosity in Bitcoin Adoption26:47 - The Future of Industry and Services in the US38:59 - The Impact of AI on Business Models41:13 - Inflation, Debt, and the Role of Bitcoin43:06 - Reshoring Manufacturing and Economic Uncertainty44:43 - The Future of Bitcoin in Venture Capital51:26 - Challenges of Bitcoin Adoption in Corporations54:09 - The Importance of Education in Bitcoin Understanding01:01:32 - Security Concerns in Bitcoin Custody01:04:49 - The Future of Bitcoin in Venture Capital StrategiesIf you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.Links discussed:https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/about-us/usrating.htmlhttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/trump-wraps-up-gulf-tour-with-1-4-trillion-investment-pledge-from-uae-over-10-yearsKeep up with Michael:https://x.com/MTangumahttps://www.linkedin.com/in/mtanguma/Keep up with Brian:https://x.com/BackslashBTChttps://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-cubellis-00b1a660/Keep up with Liam:https://x.com/Lnelson_21https://www.linkedin.com/in/liam-nelson1/Keep up with Cam:https://x.com/camdoodyhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/cam-doody-b489a124/https://www.justlaybrick.com/

In this episode, Sam Kamani talks with Bundeep Singh Ranga, co-founder of Pi Protocol, about a new model for stablecoins. Bundeep shares how Pi separates principal and interest using tokenized US treasuries, empowering anyone to become a stablecoin minter and earn yield—without giving up liquidity. We explore why stablecoins are just getting started, what decentralization really means for finance, and how Pi Protocol plans to reach underserved markets around the globe.Key Timestamps[00:00:00] Introduction: Sam introduces Bundeep Singh and the stablecoin focus of this episode. [00:01:00] Immigrant Mindset: How being an outsider inspired Bundeep's entrepreneurial journey. [00:03:00] Market Opportunity: Stablecoins vs. global fiat—why we're at just 0.0002% of the addressable market[00:04:30] Birth of Pi Protocol: Solving the limitations of centralized minting by decentralizing the yield. [00:06:30] How Pi Works: Users mint stablecoins by bringing tokenized US treasuries and retain the yield. [00:08:30] The Tether Comparison: How Pi gives users what centralized stablecoins keep for themselves. [00:10:00] Breaking the Atom: Separating principal (stablecoin) from interest (yield) with smart contracts.[00:13:00] Not a Security: How Pi avoids regulatory friction while offering real utility and upside. [00:14:00] Get Involved: Testnet now live on Solana and Ethereum—how to access and contribute. [00:15:00] Global South Focus: Why unbanked and remittance-heavy markets are ripe for stablecoin adoption.[00:16:00] Closing Thoughts: Pi's vision, open roles, and why now is the best time to join.Connecthttps://www.pi-protocol.io/#/https://www.linkedin.com/company/piprotocol/https://x.com/PiProtocolhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/rangar/https://x.com/bundeepDisclaimerNothing mentioned in this podcast is investment advice and please do your own research. Finally, it would mean a lot if you can leave a review of this podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and share this podcast with a friend.Be a guest on the podcast or contact us - https://www.web3pod.xyz/

Todd Rosenbluth discusses market flows from the ETF perspective. He's seeing interest in municipal bond ETFs, whether actively or passively managed, and corporate credit. On the other hand, short-term Treasuries as seeing less interest. In a survey, these investors said they were looking for “stability.” He's looking to how patterns of investing will change if the Fed decides to cut rates.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In early April, the bond market gave people a scare. Investors began selling off their historically secure U.S. Treasuries in large quantities. It reportedly encouraged President Trump to pause his flurry of liberation day tariffs. These jitters offered a glimpse into what could go wrong for U.S. Treasuries if economic uncertainty gets worse. On today's show, we take a peek at some nightmare scenarios for the bond market.Related episodes:Who's advising Trump on trade (Apple / Spotify)IRS information sharing, bonds bust, and a chorebot future (Apple / Spotify)Bond vigilantes. Who they are, what they want, and how you'll know they're coming (Apple / Spotify)Is the reign of the dollar over? (Apple / Spotify)For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Watch the video version on YouTube. In the ever-evolving landscape of fixed income markets, investors are faced with increased policy uncertainty and interest rate volatility. The Federal Reserve finds itself caught between signs of slowing economic momentum and the unpredictable impacts of tariffs. This environment has intensified concerns over foreign demand for U.S. debt, prompting investors to seek diversification strategies for their U.S. Treasury exposure. In the 14th season of Insights Now, we move up in the capital stack, diving deeper into the insights of J.P. Morgan's best-in-class portfolio managers and research analysts, exploring the intricacies of fixed income markets. On this episode of Insights Now, Gabriela Santos is joined by Kelsey Berro, U.S. Macro Research, to discuss the current state of the bond market and the Federal Reserve's potential actions. Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify    

Let's look at today's hot topics! Get the latest news and updates directly from RTD News: http://rtd.news✅Get tamper-proof, stackable 1/4 grain gold cards—your new barter currency when chaos hits. Visit https://minigoldbars.com to find out more!✅Turn your fading dollars into real value — get affordable, spendable 24K GoldNotes now!

Blockchain DXB – AI Review Edition (15th May)Powered by NotebookLM by Google

Our strategists Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore provide context around U.S. House Republicans' proposed tax bill and how investors should view its potential market impact.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Public Policy Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today, we'll dig into Congress's deliberations on taxes and fiscal spending.It's Wednesday, May 14th at 10am in New York.Michael Zezas: So, Ariana, there's been a lot of news around the tax and spending plans that Congress is pursuing; this fiscal package – and clients are really, really focused on it. You're having a lot of those conversations right now. Why are clients so focused on all of this?Ariana Salvatore: So, clients have reasons to focus on this tax policy bill across equities, fixed income, and for macroeconomic impacts.Starting with equities, there's a lot of the 2017 tax cut bill that's coming up for expiration towards the end of this year. So, this bill is Congress's chance to extend the expiring TCJA. And add on some incremental tax cuts that President Trump floated on the campaign trail. So, there's some really important sector impacts on the specific legislation side. And then as far as the deficit goes, that matters a lot for the economic ramifications next year and for bond yields.But Mike, to pivot this back to you, where do you think investor expectations are for the outcome of this package?Michael Zezas: So there's a lot of moving pieces in this fiscal policy package, and I think what's happening here is that investors can project a lot onto this. They can project a lot of positivity and constructive outcomes for markets; and a lot of negativity and negative outcomes for markets.So, for example, if you are really focused on the deficit impact of cutting taxes and whether or not there's enough spending cuts to offset those tax extensions, then you could look at the array of possible outcomes here and expect a major deficit expansion. And that might make you less constructive on bonds because you would expect yields to go higher as there was greater supply of Treasuries needed to borrow that much to finance the tax cuts. Again, not necessarily fully offset by spending cuts.So, you could look at this and say, well, this will ultimately be something where economic growth helps tax revenues. And you might be looking at the benefits for companies and the feed through to the equity markets and think really positively about it.And we think the truth is probably somewhere in between. You're not going to get policy that really justifies either your highest hopes or your greatest fears here.Ariana Salvatore: So, it's really like a Rorschach test for investors. When we think about our base case, how do you think that's going to materialize? What on the policy front are we watching for?Michael Zezas: Yeah, so we have to consider the starting point here, which is Congress is trying to address a series of tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of the year. And if they extend all of those tax cuts, then on a year-over-year basis, you didn't really change any policy. So that just on its own might not mean a meaningful deficit increase.Now, if Congress is able to extend greater tax cuts on top of that; but it's going to offset those greater tax cuts with spending cuts in revenue raises elsewhere, then again you might end up with a net effect close to zero on a deficit basis.And the way our economists look at this mix is that you might end up with an effect from a stimulus perspective on the economy that's something close to neutral as well. So, there's a lot of policy changes happening beneath the surface. But in the aggregate, it might not mean a heck of a lot for the economic outlook for next year.Now, that doesn't mean that there would be zero deficit increase in the aggregate next year because this is just one policy that is part of a larger set of government policies that make up the total spending posture of the government. There's already something in the range of $200-250 billion of deficit increase that was already going to happen next year. Because of weaker revenue growth on slower economic growth this year, and some spending that would automatically have happened because of inflation cost adjustments and higher interest on the debt. So, long story short, the policy that's happening right now that we think is going to be the endpoint for congressional deliberations isn't something our economists see as meaningfully uplifting growth for next year, and it probably increases the deficit – at least somewhat next year.Now we're thinking very short term here about what happens in 2026. But I think investors need to think around that timeline because if you're thinking about what this means for getting deficits smaller, multiple years ahead, or creating the type of tax environment that might induce greater corporate investment and greater economic growth years ahead – all those things are possible. But they're very hypothetical and they're subject to policy changes that could happen after the next Congress comes in or the next president comes in.So, Ariana, that's the overall look at our base case. But I think it's important to understand here that there are multiple different paths this legislation could follow. Can you explain what are some of the sticking points? And, depending on how they're resolved, how that might change the trajectory of what's ultimately passed here?Ariana Salvatore: There are a number of disagreements that need to be resolved. In particular, one of the biggest that we're focused on is on the SALT cap; so that's the cap on State And Local Tax deductions that individuals can take. That raised about a trillion dollars of revenue in the first iteration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017.Republicans generally are okay with making a modification to that cap, maybe taking it a bit higher, or imposing some income thresholds. But the SALT caucus, this small group of Republicans in Congress, they're pushing for a full repeal or something bigger than just a small dollar amount increase.There's also a group of moderate Republicans pushing against any sort of spending cuts to programs like Medicaid and SNAP; that's the food stamps program. And then there's another cohort of House Republicans that are seeking to preserve the Inflation Reduction Act. Ultimately, these are all going to be continuous tension points. They're going to have to settle on some pay fors, some savings, and we think where that lands is effectively at a $90 billion or so deficit increase from just the tax policy changes next year.Now with tariff revenue excluded, that's probably closer to [$]130 billion. But Mike, to your point, there are these scheduled increases in outlays that also are going to have to be considered for next year's deficit. So, you're looking at an overall increase of about $310 billion.Michael Zezas: Yeah, I think that's right and the different ways those different dynamics could play out, I think puts us in a range of a $200 billion expansion maybe on the low end, and a $400 billion expansion on the high end. And these are meaningful numbers. But I think important context for investors is that these numbers might seem a lot smaller than some of what's been reported in the press, and that's because the press reports on the congressional budget office scoring, and these are typically 10-year numbers.So, you would multiply that one-year number by 10 at least conceptually. And these are numbers relative to a reality in which the tax cuts were allowed to expire. So, it's basically counting up revenue that is being missed by not allowing the tax cuts to expire. So, the context matters a lot here. And so we have been encouraging investors to really kind of look through the headlines, really kind of break down the context and really kind of focus on the short term impacts because those are the most reliable impacts and the ones to really anchor to; because policy uncertainty beyond a year is substantially higher than even the very high policy uncertainty we're experiencing right now.So, sticking with the theme of uncertainty, let's talk timing here. Like we came into the year thinking this tax bill would be resolved late in the year. Is that still the case or are you thinking it might be a bit sooner?Ariana Salvatore: I think that timing still holds up. Right now, the reconciliation bill is supposed to address the expiring debt ceiling. So, the real deadline for getting the bill done is the X date or the date by which the extraordinary measures are projected to be exhausted. That's the date that we would potentially hit an actual default.Of course, that date is somewhat of a moving target. It's highly dependent on tax receipts from Treasury. But our estimate is that it's somewhere around August or September. In the meantime, there's a number of key catalysts that we're watching; namely, I would say, other projections of the X date coming from Treasury, as well as some of these markups when we start to get more bill text and hear about how some of the disputes are being resolved.As I mentioned, we had text earlier this week, but there's still no quote fix for the SALT cap, and the house is still tentatively pushing for its Memorial Day deadline. That's just six legislative days away.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, I think then that means that we're starting to learn a lot more about how this bill comes together. We will be learning even a lot more over the next few months and while we set out our expectations that you're going to have some fiscal policy expansion. But largely a broadly unchanged posture for U.S. fiscal policy. We're going to have to keep checking those regularly as we get new bits of information coming out of Congress on probably a daily basis at this point.Ariana Salvatore: That's right.Michael Zezas: Great. Well, Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Michael.Michael Zezas: Thank you for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market and the topics we cover of interest, leave us a review wherever you listen. And if you like what you hear, tell a friend or colleague about us today.

USD overweight exposure is now normalizing Even as equities have rallied substantially from April lows, recovery in the dollar index, or DXY, has underwhelmed and the currency sits near the lowest level it's been in three years. Alex Cohen believes that while there are cyclical reasons for the dollar weakness, there's also been a bigger structural rethink on the currency by investors from the push toward de-globalization and from questions around US exceptionalism. Alex sees German fiscal reforms as a game changer, another dollar negative. But our own survey shows very negative sentiment for the dollar, which is relevant to the short term. Mark Cabana contributes with a discussion of rates given the important interplay between the Treasuries and currencies. Mark believes that there has been a shift away from US Treasuries by global investors, although a lot of this recent shift is a function of investors reducing their overweight position rather than getting outright negative. Mark also discusses debt sustainability concerns and how budget negotiations may impact bonds going forward. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.  

The Pulse of the Debt Markets — with Orest Mandzy, CRE Direct Capital market confidence is cautiously returning, but undercurrents of risk remain. In my wide-ranging conversation with Orest Mandzy, Managing Editor of Commercial Real Estate Direct, we discuss what recent CMBS issuance tells us about liquidity, why delinquency headlines may be misleading, and how sponsors can position themselves amid policy shocks and structural market shifts.   Liquidity Is Back — But Driven by Giants CMBS issuance jumped 110% in Q1 2025, totaling nearly $37 billion. While that headline suggests a resurgence of confidence, Orest clarifies that most of that growth comes from SASB (Single Asset, Single Borrower) deals – large trophy assets being financed and securitized by institutional players. These are not indicative of broad-based confidence in middle-market real estate.   To gauge true liquidity, he says, focus on conduit deals – pools of smaller $10M–$25M loans originated by banks and institutional lenders and repackaged into +/- $1B bond offerings. Robust conduit activity reflects a healthier market for everyday sponsors.   “If you've got solid conduit issuance,” says Orest, “that tells you there's liquidity in the market – not just for trophy deals.”   Rising Delinquencies: Real or a Red Herring? Recent headlines warned that CMBS delinquency rates exceeded 7%, the highest since 2021. But Orest has looked deeper into the data and sees it is far from being systemic. A handful of large, troubled multifamily loans, such as the $1.5B Park Merced in San Francisco and a floating-rate New York portfolio, together make up nearly 60% of those delinquencies. The common thread? These loans were made pre-COVID or in 2021 with floating-rate debt and now can't refinance in today's rate environment. But they're outliers, not bellwethers. Fannie and Freddie multifamily delinquencies remain under 1%, and even in CMBS, the average LTVs have been conservative.   “Multifamily looks worse than it is. Strip out the outliers and the market's still performing.”   CLOs, Banks, and the Competitive Landscape CMBS is just one lane in the broader lending freeway. Orest distinguishes it from CLOs, which are floating-rate, short-term loans used by debt funds for leverage, and from agencies like Fannie and Freddie, which underwrite more conservatively.   In 2024: Agencies originated ~$60B each CMBS did ~$40B CLOs only ~$8B – down sharply from peak years Debt funds relying on CLOs are now facing stiff competition from banks, which are back in the market after a cautious 2023. With banks accounting for 40% of CRE loan volume annually, this shift matters.   For sponsors, it means a broader set of options but also a new underwriting reality. Orest notes that while leverage is available, it's on tighter terms: LTVs in the low 60s and debt service coverage ratios near 2.0x are now standard for institutional-quality debt.   The Tariff Shock and Bond Market Jitters One of the most important takeaways: macro events like tariffs are now exerting real-time pressure on the capital stack.   In early April, CMBS bond spreads spiked from 80bps to 108bps over Treasuries as the market braced for a new round of tariffs. That spread spike pushed borrowing costs up and froze CMBS issuance for nearly 10 days – a signal of how fragile the system remains to policy volatility.  Although bond spreads have since tightened, Orest warns that risk repricing is now a function of policy headlines, not just economic fundamentals.   “Uncertainty is risk. And when investors sense more of it, they demand more yield. That makes loans more expensive and deal volume drops.”   Positive Leverage or No Leverage: Sponsor Guidance Asked what CRE sponsors and investors should be doing in the next 3–12 months, Orest's answer is clear: Seek positive leverage from Day One – don't rely on NOI lifts growth to bail you out. Consider no leverage at all if you're sitting on cash and don't want to risk default. Underwrite conservatively and turn over every rock. The deal you don't do may save you. “If you buy with positive leverage, great. If not, maybe don't borrow at all.”   Special Servicing > Delinquencies For investors and borrowers watching for cracks in the market, Orest recommends a lesser-known but more reliable signal: the special servicing rate in CMBS. Loans enter special servicing before they go delinquent, usually triggered by pending lease expirations, tenant loss, or anticipated refinance trouble. This metric has been rising and, unlike delinquencies, tends to stay elevated longer. Sponsors should watch this closely.   Local Policy Risk: The Property Tax Squeeze Orest flags an emerging risk with local governments under fiscal stress. Cities like San Francisco, where office values have cratered, still rely on CRE for a large share of tax revenue. If values fall but municipalities resist cutting spending, expect tax rates to rise, eroding asset value further.   “Where do cities go when they need money? To the deep pockets. And that's commercial real estate.”   Industrial and Insurance: Still in the Crosshairs While multifamily has absorbed most of the press, Orest highlights risk building in other sectors: Industrial may face headwinds from tariffs disrupting trade flows and warehouse demand. Insurance costs, especially in hurricane-prone areas, continue to rise, sometimes outpacing rent growth. In one example, he cited an apartment property in Tampa where gross revenue rose 50% in five years, but expenses outpaced it, limiting refinance options.   Geopolitics, De-Dollarization, and Exorbitant Privilege One of my concerns is about broader macro risks – de-dollarization, loss of U.S. financial credibility, and capital flight from Treasuries. Orest acknowledged these as tail risks but noted they're not front of mind for most market participants… yet.   Still, if foreign buyers ever pull back on U.S. Treasuries, that could cause a spike in long-term rates, forcing CRE valuations down and capital costs up. It's not imminent, but it's worth tracking.   “If China and Japan stop buying Treasuries, we've got a real problem. All bets are off.”   Final Thought The key insight from this episode: the market is functioning but only just. Liquidity is back, but it's conditional. Optimism exists, but it's fragile. And sponsors must walk a tightrope between opportunity and overextension.   Orest's advice? Borrow smart. Underwrite for today's risks – not yesterday's assumptions. And remember: your best defense in uncertain times is positive leverage and deep diligence.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Fundstrat's Mark Newton joins Maggie Lake to break down why markets are rallying, and why technical analysis points to even more upside ahead. Despite recession fears and volatile headlines, Newton says the S&P 500 could hit 6,650 by year-end. He argues April marked peak fear and explains how charts (not narratives) reveal the real trends across stocks, bonds, crypto, and commodities. Key Topics Why the recent rally is more than just a bounce Treasury yields could fall below 4 % between June and September Tech and AI remain long-term secular winners Bitcoin may pull back before heading to $135-150 K by year-end Gold (target $3,750-3,800) and silver look strong heading into fall He also sees the U.S. dollar dipping to the low 90s before rebounding Chapters: 0:23 - How Can Technical Analysis Guide Us in a Headline-Driven Market?   3:13 - Why Is the S&P's April Low a Launchpad?   8:04 - Is This ‘Sell the Rip' or Still a Buying Opportunity?   9:26 - Which Sectors Will Lead the Next Leg Higher?   12:37 - Are U.S. Stocks Set to Outshine Global Markets?   14:13 - What Must Happen in Treasuries for Stocks to Climb?   18:38 - When Could 10-Year Yields Slide Below 4%?   21:00 - Do Charts Signal a Weaker Dollar Ahead?   23:26 - Is Bitcoin Really Decoupling from Risk Assets?   29:12 - Where Could Gold Head as Yields Fall?   31:35 - Is the Tech Rally Broader Than the ‘Mag 7'?   33:57 - Is the AI Boom a Bubble or a Secular Trend?   35:44 - Should Tesla Be Viewed as an AI Play?   Volatility got you concerned? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/4k1l0U4 Hard Assets Alliance - The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #Treasuries #Bitcoin #Gold #Silver #AIStocks #S&P500 #Crypto #MarketOutlook #stocks #TA #Tariffs ________________________________________________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's episode features Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at CPM Group, in conversation with host Adrian Pocobelli about the dynamics of the precious metals market. Christian offers insights into the growing influence of Shanghai and Mumbai on global gold pricing and explains how the gold price is actually determined. He also explains how tariff announcements by former President Donald Trump may have contributed to a shift away from U.S. Treasuries and toward gold, among other assets. In addition, Christian shares his outlook on the silver market, predicting record highs on an annual basis over the next two years. This week's Spotlight segment features Chris Doornbos, president and CEO of E3 Lithium. Doornbos discusses the company's plans to develop lithium brine extraction and processing facilities in Alberta, which he hopes will play a significant role in meeting Canada's growing lithium demand. To learn more, visit: https://www.e3lithium.ca/ All this and more with host Adrian Pocobelli. Music Credits “Rattlesnake Railroad”, “Big Western Sky”, “Western Adventure” and “Battle on the Western Frontier” by Brett Van Donsel (⁠www.incompetech.com⁠). Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License ⁠creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0⁠ Apple Podcasts:⁠ https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-northern-miner-podcast/id1099281201⁠ Spotify:⁠ https://open.spotify.com/show/78lyjMTRlRwZxQwz2fwQ4K⁠ YouTube:⁠ https://www.youtube.com/@NorthernMiner⁠ Soundcloud:⁠ https://soundcloud.com/northern-miner

Fixed income portfolio manager Connor Fitzgerald joins host Amar Reganti to discuss the potential effects of tariffs and other fiscal decisions on the bond market.2:20 Liberation Day fallout5:10 Tariffs as taxes7:40 Breaking down market impacts10:10 Structural increase in term premia12:45 Inflation breakeven signals15:55 Probability of recession19:00 Managing fixed income portfolios

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Gemini, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Bitcoin Corporate Adoption is Accelerating: Learn more about Nakamoto Holdings and Strive Asset Management Announcements Strategy & Metaplanet Stack More Bitcoin New Hampshire Establishes First State Bitcoin Reserve, Arizona follows GENIUS Act Fails to Pass - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Reaction Warren Buffett Fears Currency Debasement ---- Invest as you spend with the Gemini Credit Card. Sign up today to earn a $200 intro Bitcoin bonus. The Gemini Credit Card lets you earn Bitcoin on everything you buy: www.gemini.com/natalie  ---- Join our  mailing list and subscribe to our free Bitcoin newsletter: thenewsblock.substack.com ---- References mentioned in the episode: David Bailey Launching New Bitcoin Treasury Company Strive Asset Management Launches New Treasury Company Bernstein's Research on Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Strategy  Metaplanet Acquires Another 1,241 Bitcoin for $124 Million Strategy Acquires Another 13,390 Bitcoin for $1.34 Billion  Armstrong Considered Bitcoin Treasury Strategy Years Ago Coinbase's Latest SEC Filings Show Bitcoin Accumulation Coinbase Acquires Deribit for $2.9 Billion in Record Deal Coinbase Unveils 24/7 Bitcoin Futures Trading  New Hampshire Passes First State Bitcoin Reserve Law Arizona Becomes Second State to Enact Bitcoin Reserve Bill OCC's New Interpretive Letter Gives Green Light for Banks OCC Video States Banks Now Allowed to Service Crypto Secretary Bessent Testifies that U.S. Should Lead in Digital Assets  U.S. Senate Votes to Halt the GENIUS Act Stablecoin Bill Senator Elizabeth Warren Blames Trump for Corruption  Secretary Bessent's Tweet in Response to GENIUS Act Halt Treasury Secretary Lambasts Senate for Blocking Stablecoin Bill U.S. Treasury's Digital Money Stablecoin Presentation  U.S. Government on Pace for a $2 Trillion Annual Deficit Global Debt Reaches Record $324 Trillion in Q1 2025 Warren Buffett Clip on How U.S. Fiscal Policy Scares Him Samara Asset Group's Bitcoin Consumer Price Index ---- Upcoming Events: Bitcoin 2025 is heading to Las Vegas May 27-29th! Join me for my 4th Annual Women of Bitcoin Brunch! Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/affiliate/hodl/event/bitcoin-2025   Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto    ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

Connect with Early Riders // Connect with OnrampPresented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering the underlying mechanics of the bitcoin protocol, its ongoing development and funding, and real-world applications of the technology.00:00 - China-US Trade Negotiations and Tariffs03:09 - Impact of Treasury Yields on Negotiations06:07 - Bitcoin's Market Dynamics and Predictions08:59 - Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Opportunities and Risks11:49 - Corporate Treasuries and Bitcoin: A New Paradigm17:08 - Mergers and Acquisitions in the Crypto Space20:11 - The Future of Bitcoin Derivatives and ETFs26:50 - Market Sentiment and Institutional Interest29:05 - The Asymmetry of Bitcoin Understanding30:01 - Legislative Challenges and Bitcoin Dominance33:06 - Global Regulatory Landscape and Bitcoin Adoption36:13 - The Value Proposition of Bitcoin vs. Proxy Assets38:58 - Retail Interest and Psychological Barriers42:08 - Building Consumer Applications for Bitcoin44:51 - Emerging Trends in Bitcoin Legislation48:03 - On-Ramping New Users to Bitcoin51:04 - Influencer Impact on Bitcoin PerceptionIf you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.Links discussed:https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2025/nr-occ-2025-42.htmlhttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-vote-advance-crypto-bill-bipartisan-talks-trump-rcna205328https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/coinbase-ceo-on-why-the-exchange-didnt-bet-farm-on-bitcoin/https://www.coinbase.com/blog/coinbase-to-acquire-deribit-becoming-the-most-comprehensive-global-crypto-derivatives-platformhttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1265.pdf?utm_mediumKeep up with Michael: X and LinkedInKeep up with Brian: X and LinkedInKeep up with Liam: X and LinkedIn

Nik Bhatia is a prominent financial researcher, CFA charterholder, and Adjunct Professor of Finance and Business Economics at USC Marshall School of Business, where he teaches Applied Finance in Fixed Income Securities. He is the author of the bestselling book Layered Money: From Gold and Dollars to Bitcoin and Central Bank Digital Currencies (2021) and his recent work, Bitcoin Age (2025). Bhatia is also the founder of TheBitcoinLayer.com, a premium markets research platform focusing on Bitcoin through a global macroeconomic lens. With a background in trading U.S. Treasuries and interest rate futures, he bridges traditional finance and Bitcoin, exploring its role as a store of value, a check on fiat systems, and a pluralistic monetary technology. You can follow me on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠www.x.com/⁠Dale21M ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠or visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.whybitcoinshow.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for any feedback. I'm on a mission to help people understand "why Bitcoin". If you could like, comment and share this episode with friends, it's the single most valuable thing you could do to help spread the message.Need a hand with self-custody? Book a⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠session ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠with me to get your Bitcoin security house in order.

Michael Tanguma, Founder and CEO of Onramp, joins the show to discuss his journey to Bitcoin, Onramp's Early Riders venture firm, and a big Onramp announcement.NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - For entertainment purposes only.Tim Kotzman on X // Michael Tanguma on X0:00 - Intro0:45 - Recapping MSTR earnings7:00 - Michael's take on the announcement of 21 Capital11:54 - Michael's journey to Bitcoin and founding Onramp21:56 - Where Onramp is today and its flagship product27:26 - How Onramp educates consumers on its offerings38:30 - Onramp's venture firm Early Riders49:25 - Where Onramp is going from here53:04 - Where to find Michael online

Are you letting fear or outdated strategies sabotage your portfolio? In this important interview, Brandy Maben of Windrock Wealth Management joins Maggie Lake to reveal how the wealthiest investors prepare for volatility, inflation, and taxes, and what everyday investors can learn from them. Brandy explains why: Treasuries aren't the safe haven they once were Tax planning (not market timing) is your biggest edge Sitting on cash may be riskier than investing Gold, farmland, and private credit are essential inflation hedges Most people completely misjudge their true risk tolerance She also breaks down misunderstood tax strategies like Roth conversions, donor-advised funds, and how to prepare for the looming 2026 tax sunset. If you're unsure whether your portfolio can survive what's coming, this episode is your wake-up call. Chapters: 0:20 - Big Picture: Managing 2025's Market Roller-Coaster 1:48 - Beyond 60/40: Portfolio Priorities for 2025 4:41 - Guarding Against Inflation's Whiplash 6:25 - Safe Haven or Sinking Ship? The Treasury Debate 8:03 - Getting into Gold: Too Late or Just in Time? 10:05 - Preserve Capital or Chase Growth Amid Volatility? 12:30 - The Biggest Tax Mistakes Investors Make 16:59 - Should You Go Global? Weighing International Diversification 18:31 - Are You Really as Risk-Tolerant as You Think? 20:58 - Sitting on Cash: Safety Net or Silent Killer? 23:47 - Favorite Tax-Smart Vehicles Revealed 27:02 - Building a Battle-Ready Plan: Key Questions to Ask Volatility got you concerned? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/4m1zC73 Hard Assets Alliance - The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #Inflation #TaxPlanning #Gold #Farmland #FinancialPlanning #SmartMoney #Markets #Volatility ________________________________________________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The traditional correlations between some asset classes went haywire in April. Our analysts Serena Tang and Vishy Tirupattur discuss whether, in this environment, investors still consider U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar to be reliable ports in a storm. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross Asset Strategist.Vishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Serena Tang: Today's topic, how investors' perceptions of safe havens are evolving, the impact on correlation between asset classes, and what all this means for your portfolio.It's Wednesday, May 7th at 10am in New York.April was a really challenging month, and some market moves were highly unusual. There was also a lot of investor concern whether U.S. Treasuries would continue to be a safe haven. In fact, this became one of the biggest market debates over the last few weeks.Vishy, let's start here. Prior to this recent sell off, foreign investors looked at U.S. assets as a safe haven. Why is that? And is it still the case now after this turbulent month?Vishy Tirupattur: So, Serena, if you just step back and look at it, U.S. enjoyed positive growth differentials and positive yield differentials with developed markets in the rest of the world. On top of that, there was a consistent policy – not necessarily infallible policy – but there's a consistent policy with a clear sense of demarcation between the executive and the central bank.All of this meant U.S. was a very attractive destination for foreign investor flows. Not only during periods of normalcy where U.S. equities really attracted inflows and performed really well, but also during the periods of economic stress; where even periods where the stress was coming from the U.S. itself, such as the Global Financial Crisis. This correlation between bonds and stocks held and U.S. Treasuries were the safe haven asset as the single largest and most liquid, and highly negatively correlated asset with risk assets. So that really worked.What we are now seeing is that growth differential I talked about may no longer be holding. You know, for these [20]25 and [20]26 U.S. and euro area growth basically will converge – and if our economists' expectations are right, in 2026, euro area will be growing at a faster pace than the U.S.So, growth differential argument is fading. And there are some questions about the continued Fed independence. So put all these things together. Some investors are beginning to question whether U.S. assets will continue to be safe haven assets.So let me come back to you Serena. There've been some recent market moves that have been extremely unusual. That's what created all this debate. In some of – a few days in April, during the periods of sell off, we had both stocks and bonds selling off. And it felt like cross-asset correlations have gone totally haywire.So, can you talk a little bit about which correlations have changed? Which correlations have held up in these sell off?Serena Tang: What was highly unusual, and I think reflects part of the debate on U.S. as a safe haven, is the correlation between U.S. equities and the dollar. It is very high at the moment, about sort of two standard deviation above the five-year average. While it's not unheard of for FX stocks correlation to be high, it is usually more associated with EM or emerging markets rather than DM or developed markets. As a means, investors now require higher risk premium for holding the equities, which is a risk asset; but also holding the dollar, which again, traditionally is not thought of as a risk asset.Vishy Tirupattur: So, Serena, how did the correlation between bonds and stocks hold up in this period?Serena Tang: Surprisingly, the correlation have really, really held up. Stocks and bond return correlation turned very negative during the sell off that we saw, which means that equity losses were actually offset by bond returns. Now, this isn't entirely true across the curve. You saw 2 Year Treasuries being a much effective diversifier than say the 30 Year Treasury. But all in all, I think it means bonds still work as a diversifier.Now on this point Vishy, how do you think policy will impact asset correlations we've been talking about, as well as the perception of U.S. assets as a safe haven.Vishy Tirupattur: So, as I said before, positive growth differentials fade, and we have negative growth differential. And if there are continued questions about the Fed's independence, so some of the attraction of U.S. assets, particularly U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven asset, will be challenged. But that challenge hits the practical reality of the size and the scale of the safe haven assets.So, if you look around, if you add the comparably rated European government bond market and compare that to the U.S. government bond market, the U.S. market is about 10 times as larger. So, more scale, more liquidity, and the ability to deploy capital during the periods of stress is clearly more in the U.S.So, this is what I would say. The status of U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency and U.S. Treasuries as the global safe haven asset have taken a bit of a ding, but not gone away.Serena Tang: Vishy, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Vishy Tirupattur: Great speaking with you, Serena, as always.Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

On today's show we are looking at an event in financial markets that could represent a tipping point. These events have occurred with regularity over the years. Think of the Greek Sovereign debt crisis in 2012 that threatened to topple the entire European banking system. Think of Lehman Brothers in 2008. There was the bank failures in the US in 2023. These events often expose the counter party risk that is inherent in our globally interconnected financial system. The problem is showing up in the latest spike in US Treasury yields. It happened very rapidly between May 1 and May 2 of last week. Now we have become accustomed to very high volatility in US Treasury yields. Most of that is routinely blamed on the unpredictable nature of the White House.But this one was different. There was no news from the White House that fundamentally would affect Treasury yields. The threat to impose tariffs on foreign movies is not enough to move the needle. So who is dumping US Treasuries? What happened at the same time as the spike in US Treasury yields was a precipitous drop in the Taiwanese dollar against the US dollar. So who in Taiwan is dumping Treasuries? It turns out that Taiwanese life insurance companies had loaded up on US Treasuries and failed to purchase a hedge against interest rate volatility.  Why did they not buy insurance? They thought the insurance was too expensive. The liberation day announcement from Donald Trump had been pending for weeks. It was making front page headlines around the world, and still the risk managers at these Taiwanese insurance companies thought that they would take the risk and not buy the insurance. The high price of the insurance was a reflection of the elevated risk.---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

“There's a mad rush for physical gold... even the U.S. is bringing it back in. It tells you that they're preparing for something,” warns billionaire philanthropist Frank Giustra in a must-watch video. He sits down with Daniela Cambone to discuss how the global financial order is shifting, with gold returning to a central monetary role.As the U.S. prepares to adopt gold as a Tier 1 asset under Basel III regulations on July 1 of this year, Giustra says he sees a monetary reset coming and that “gold in one form or another is going to play a role in a new global monetary system.”For banks in particular, this change means they can increase the allocation of gold holdings on their balance sheets, using it as collateral or capital counted at 100% of its value—just like cash or U.S. Treasuries. And this, according to Giustra, will trigger “incredible ramifications” to the existing financial system. On the recent power outage scenario in Spain and Portugal, where cash withdrawals were limited, Giustra calls it 'a war on cash' and warns it could ripple globally as central bank digital currencies take hold. Watch the video to learn how you can safeguard your wealth now. You can register for Rick Rule's Conference: rickrulesymposium.com/dani Key Facts: What are the ramifications of Basel III?What role will gold play in the new financial order?Monetary reset is coming.Banks to upgrade gold to a Tier 1 asset - what comes next?Gold remains the constant.What might a new monetary system look like?Are we seeing the rise of a bifurcated system?Spain's power outage scenario is "war on cash"

Japan Opens Door To Selling US Treasuries As the trade war carries on, tensions remain with China, Trump has now raised the possibility of additional banking sanctions on Russia, and now Japan, a US ally, and the other largest holder of US treasuries along with China, has opened the door to the possibility of selling. Which is the kind of statement that was once unheard of. But is increasingly becoming more common as the shift from Treasuries to gold continues. To find out more about what they said, and how that will impact the gold and silver markets, click to watch the video now! - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - To get your very own 'Silver Chopper Ben' statue go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/chopper-ben-landing-page/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by Fortuna Mining, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-fortuna-silver-mines/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

This episode of Grow Money Business covers tariffs, Trump's recent economic policy, the market's reaction, and how we should interpret all this as investors.  We cover an article commenting on a recent wonky U.S. government bond auction and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments, and put the rapid pace of the news cycle in perspective. RESOURCES: US Treasury secretary: no risk of China weaponizing Treasuries despite bond market volatility reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/us-treasury-secretary-no-risk-china-weaponizing-treasuries-despite-bond-market-2025-04-15/

In this episode of The Daily Herold, Jon Herold recaps a jam-packed day of headlines and speculation centered around Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to the White House. Trump steals the show with fiery commentary on U.S.-Canada trade relations, poking fun at Carney while floating the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state, complete with “free military” and lower taxes. Jon also highlights the power imbalance in global trade as Trump asserts America no longer needs to sign deals, it simply sets terms. Major foreign policy updates include Trump's announcement that the Houthis have agreed to cease attacks, prompting a pause in U.S. bombings, and a teaser for a “major” announcement from the Middle East, possibly hinting at new Abraham Accords signatories. Domestically, Trump signed an executive order halting all federal funding for gain-of-function research, citing public health and national security risks. Jon also critiques the politicization of gas prices, election rulings in North Carolina, and the resurfacing of the 2017 congressional baseball shooting. He covers economic threats from Japan over U.S. Treasuries, the media's racial framing of tariffs, and a bombshell lawsuit from Stephen Miller's AFL targeting Chief Justice Roberts. From foreign policy to financial maneuvering, Herold delivers a rapid-fire, no-nonsense rundown of the day's most pressing stories.

Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno Larsen is back with his co-host, Mikkel Rosenvold, the company's partner and head of geopolitics, to dissect whether Donald Trump's trade war strategy is bearing fruit as China purchases U.S. Treasuries. Plus, they examine what sparked a sudden volatility spike in the New Taiwan dollar.

Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno Larsen is back with his co-host, Mikkel Rosenvold, the company's partner and head of geopolitics, to dissect whether Donald Trump's trade war strategy is bearing fruit as China purchases U.S. Treasuries. Plus, they examine what sparked a sudden volatility spike in the New Taiwan dollar.

China thorium-based nuclear energy breakthrough https://www.mining.com/china-makes-thorium-based-nuclear-energy-breakthrough-using-past-us-work/ Nuclear Physicist Explains - What are Thorium Reactors? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=148NI9j23Kg Copenhagen Atomics https://www.copenhagenatomics.com/ Aurora hits driverless truck milestone in Texas https://www.axios.com/2025/05/01/autonomous-vehicles-trucks-aurora-texas-pastries Aurora Safety Report https://www.houstonchronicle.com/file/170/11/17011-Aurora_Driverless_Safety_Report_2025.pdf True Anomaly raises $260 million https://spacenews.com/defense-focused-space-startup-true-anomaly-raises-260-million/ https://www.trueanomaly.space/jackalTether Approaching $120B in U.S. Treasuries https://tether.io/news/tether-approaching-120b-in-u-s-treasuries-confirms-quarterly-operating-profit-over-1b-and-strengthens-global-usdt-demand-in-q1-2025/ Inspiration#AUDIOBOOK :: On ne se comprend plus: Traverser sans dommage la période des portes qui claquent entre 12 et 17 ans de Isabelle Filliozat https://www.amazon.fr/ne-se-comprend-plus/dp/2709658615 https://open.spotify.com/episode/3xATsYfFC8OCRLhk99SIML #ARTICLE :: How to Heal the Anxious Self by poet David Whyte https://tim.blog/2025/04/09/how-to-heal-the-anxious-self-david-whyte/ #BOOK :: Finding Meaning in the Second Half of Life by James Hollis https://www.amazon.com/Finding-Meaning-Second-Half-Life/dp/1592402070 #PODCAST :: Huberman podcast with Jungian psychoanalyst, Dr. Hollis https://www.reddit.com/r/Jung/comments/1cr1y51/huberman_podcast_with_jungian_psychoanalyst_dr/ #QUOTE :: "Standing up to our fear is perhaps the most critical decision necessary in the governance of life and the recovery of the soul's agenda in the second half of life." James Hollis Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

What's driving the US bond market now – and are there opportunities in Treasuries and in credit? Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing with Goldman Sachs Asset Management, discusses with Chris Hussey.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our memories—and sometimes our parents'—shape how we invest, often more than logic or data. Don and Tom break down how generational financial trauma, recent market trends, and asset class myths (like gold and U.S.-only investing) skew our thinking. They call out flawed stock picking contests, revisit the real long-term returns on gold versus stocks, and explain why short-term memory leads to bad long-term decisions. Listener questions hit everything from where to park house savings to bond fund risks, rebalancing strategies, and simplifying retirement saving using the TSP. Oh, and yes, the laundry room podcast myth lives on, and the Fyre Festival somehow still smolders in the background. 0:04 Don and Tom settle into the show—studio quirks, mic levels, and inviting questions 0:52 How memory bias—from the Great Depression to dot-com boom—influences investment behavior 2:07 Family stories from the Depression era and why stock picking games teach the wrong lesson 2:54 Why investors wrongly believe growth stocks always beat value—thanks to recent performance 5:20 Myths about market trends: U.S. dominance, buy-the-dip thinking, and time horizon confusion 7:46 Gold mania: Recent price surge vs. long-term returns—spoiler, stocks win 9:58 Long-term perspective: $10k in 1980—Gold vs. Treasuries vs. Global portfolio 10:28 Listener: Where to park house construction funds short-term—ETFs vs. money markets 13:30 Why those new ultra-short ETFs may be a trap 15:17 Listener: Should I buy callable bonds with 6% yields? And what's with PIMCO's “14%”? 17:36 Risks of leveraged bond funds like PDI—why they don't belong in a stable portfolio 19:46 Listener: How often should I rebalance in a 401(k)? 23:12 Listener in Albuquerque: Should I go all-in on the C Fund for simplicity? 25:39 Roth vs. TSP—what matters more: today's tax rate or the future's unknowns? 27:33 Future goals: quarterly travel in retirement and pizza roof update 28:22 Investing in “brands” like Fyre Festival—don't 32:30 $63 offer for the Fyre trademark, and a plug for free fiduciary advice Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL's Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder and Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum recap key drivers of last week's strong stock market rebound and discuss where they stand on stocks and bonds following the latest developments in trade negotiations, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and the outlook for Treasuries. Tracking: #731360

The same banking giants responsible for the 2008 financial crisis are quietly reshaping regulations—again. But this time, the threat isn't bad mortgages; it's U.S. Treasuries, consumer debt, and weakened bank stress testing. At the center of this shift is the Federal Reserve, and vocal support from banking leaders like Jamie Dimon. For anyone with money in a U.S. bank, this change could be devastating.Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcastor Call 866-349-3310

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses the market's shifting perception of risk and what's behind some unusual patterns in fund flows among asset classes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. No investment recommendation is made with respect to any of the ETFs or mutual funds referenced herein. Investors should not rely on the information included in making investment decisions with respect to those funds. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist. Today I want to look at how investors are playing defense amid elevated macro uncertainty.It's Tuesday, April 22, at 10am in New York.So, the last three weeks have brought intense volatility to global markets, and investors have had to reexamine their relationship with risk. Typically, in times like these, mutual fund and ETF flows from stocks into bonds serve as a clear gauge of investor defensiveness. But this pattern hasn't really been informative this time around.Instead, flows to gold – rather than bonds – have been the clearest evidence of flight-to-quality most recently. Between April 3rd and 11th almost US$5 billion went into gold ETFs globally, one of the strongest seven-day net flow stretches ever. There's been US$22 billion of net inflows to gold ETFs with assets under management totaling about US$250 billion year-to-date. Of the 10 days of the highest net inflows to gold ETFs over the last 20 years, three occurred in the last month.Cash also benefited from the dash to defensives, with over US$100bn flowing into money market funds year-to-date. And we expect that reallocating to cash will be a theme for the rest of the year for many reasons. For one, our U.S. economists expect no Fed cuts in 2025 and back-loaded cuts in 2026 following a projected surge in core PCE inflation from tariffs. This means that money market fund yields should stay higher for longer. And with investors seeing the wild gyrations in safe government bonds in recent weeks, money market funds' low volatility offer a strong risk/reward argument over holding Treasuries. For another, let's say our economists' base case is incorrect, and we do get steep cuts from the Fed sooner rather than later. That probably means we're on the brink of a recession; and in that situation, cash is king.You know what's been particularly surprising in the middle of this recent flight to quality? Outflows from high-grade US fixed income. These outflows are notable because U.S. Treasuries, Agency mortgages, and investment grade credit are usually seen as low-beta and defensives. But U.S. high-grade bonds saw net outflows of approximately US$1.4bn during the week of April 7th. These are the largest outflows since the pandemic; and we think that this trend can continue.So we need to ask ourselves if this is the end of American exceptionalism. And are we seeing a rotation from U.S. assets into rest-of-the-world?The answer may surprise you, but despite the outflows in U.S. bonds, there hasn't really been a persistent rotation out of U.S. risk assets and into rest-of-world markets. At least not a lot of evidence in the data yet. U.S. equity investors still have a strong home bias, and we've seen continued net buying from Japanese and euro area investors of foreign equities – at least some of which are U.S. equities. We think investors should stay defensive amid the current uncertainty. But figuring out what's actually defensive has been challenging. This recent turmoil in the global markets suggests that the investors' shifting idea of what's risky is a risk in itself. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.