Podcasts about treasuries

Today we talk the investing secrets for IPOs, Bitcoin, and AI. There is also growing market uncertainty as strong earnings, resilient employment data, and a potential SpaceX IPO collide raise concerns. A small group of AI and semiconductor stocks have driven most market gains while many sectors have remained flat, raising concerns about narrow market leadership and investor complacency. We examine how stronger-than-expected jobs data could keep interest rates elevated for longer and create headwinds for stocks and cryptocurrencies. We also cover Bitcoin's cyclical boom-and-bust patterns, the importance of risk management, the growing role of gold in global central bank reserves, and emerging long-term investment themes such as AI infrastructure, nuclear power, electrification, robotics, and space technology.  We discuss...  The growing market divergence as AI and semiconductor stocks continue to drive gains while most sectors remain flat. How strong earnings results have failed to lift the broader market despite solid corporate performance. Why stronger-than-expected jobs data could keep interest rates higher for longer and delay potential Fed rate cuts. The impact of liquidity conditions on stocks, cryptocurrencies, and overall market sentiment. Signs that the economy may be entering a late-cycle phase characterized by tighter financial conditions and rising IPO activity. The risks and opportunities surrounding the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO and what history suggests about buying newly public companies. Bitcoin's historical boom-and-bust cycles, potential downside targets, and the importance of managing risk in crypto investing. Why investors should focus on their own investment strategy instead of chasing the market's hottest trends. Housing affordability challenges and the widening gap between the costs of owning and renting a home. Gold surpassing U.S. Treasuries as the largest reserve asset held by global central banks. Emerging investment themes including AI infrastructure, nuclear energy, electrification, robotics, quantum computing, and space technology. The importance of diversification and risk management in a market increasingly driven by a small group of high-performing stocks.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investing-secrets-for-ipos-823 

Yields dos Treasuries têm leve alta com o mercado precificando que o Fed poderá elevar juros diante de inflação impulsionada pelo petróleo.

Yields dos Treasuries têm leve alta com o mercado precificando que o Fed poderá elevar juros diante de inflação impulsionada pelo petróleo.

Welcome to Navigating Bitcoin's Noise, the show where we cut through the clutter and bring you the clearest insights on Bitcoin. I'm your host, Kane McGukin, and today I'm joined by Nik Bhatia, author of Layered Money and visiting fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute.  In this conversation, we break down Nik's landmark paper on stablecoins and statecraft and why the GENIUS Act may be one of the most strategically important pieces of legislation in decades.  We get into how the Eurodollar system quietly exported dollar governance offshore, how stablecoins are designed to bring it back, and why the end of China's deflationary unsystem is forcing America's hand. We ask the question that matters: are stablecoins just a fintech product, or are they America's most powerful tool for our next money layer?  If you're tired of hype and want a first-principles breakdown of how dollar dominance actually works, and what the U.S. is building to protect it, this episode is for you. So sit back, relax, and let's get started.  Kane McGukinX: https://twitter.com/kanemcgukinSubstack: kanemcgukin.substack.com Nik Bhatia X: https://x.com/timevalueofbtcThe Bitcoin Layer: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/Bitcoin Policy Institute: https://www.btcpolicy.org/authors/nik-bhatiaPaper: https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/stablecoins-as-statecraft-reclaiming-us-financial-sovereignty-in-the-eurodollar-market

After nine straight weeks of gains, investor optimism is running high, money flows remain elevated, and portfolio protection has become an afterthought. But history suggests that periods of extreme complacency often precede at least a short-term market reset. In this morning's market update, we review the surge in money flows since April, the growing divergence from long-term moving averages, and why markets may be increasingly vulnerable to a pullback. While the bullish trend remains intact, momentum and relative strength indicators are stretched, raising the risk of a reversion toward more normal levels. We discuss practical ways investors can think about portfolio insurance without using complex options strategies. From raising cash levels through profit-taking to utilizing short-term Treasuries, simple hedging approaches can help reduce risk while maintaining market participation. A correction does not have to be severe to feel uncomfortable, especially after an extended advance with very little volatility. Understanding risk management before volatility returns can help investors avoid emotional decisions when markets inevitably pull back. Watch today's update as we discuss market complacency, portfolio hedging, cash as a strategic asset, and why protecting gains can be just as important as generating them. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/N5vR32ESAeY --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "A SimpleVisor Tutorial," Thursday, June 4, 2025 at Noon: https://streamyard.com/watch/MwairsimgmnS --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCorrection #PortfolioProtection #RiskManagement #InvestingStrategy #StockMarket

This week's show covers what to do with your old employer-sponsored retirement plan, floating rate treasuries, estate planning considerations, and lots of listener questions!

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella e Tomás Goulart debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a semana foi marcada pelo aumento do otimismo em relação a um possível acordo entre Estados Unidos e Irã. Ao longo dos últimos dias, Trump indicou que restariam poucos pontos para um entendimento, incluindo questões relacionadas ao programa nuclear iraniano e às condições de reparação do país. O mercado encerra a semana com expectativa mais positiva sobre a possibilidade de avanço nas negociações. Nos dados econômicos, o Core PCE veio abaixo do esperado, com surpresa baixista concentrada em serviços ex-habitação. O dado representou a primeira surpresa baixista relevante de inflação após sequência de números mais fortes, embora os indicadores anualizados ainda permaneçam acima da meta do Fed. No Brasil, a semana trouxe dados econômicos relevantes. O IPCA veio levemente acima do esperado, com surpresa concentrada em alimentação no domicílio e energia elétrica, enquanto os núcleos permaneceram em linha. O Caged veio abaixo das expectativas, sugerindo desaceleração marginal do mercado de trabalho, embora a PNAD tenha continuado mostrando força, com nova mínima da taxa de desemprego e crescimento robusto da massa salarial. O PIB do primeiro trimestre veio em linha com o esperado, mas com composição forte, reforçando revisões altistas para o crescimento de 2026. No campo político, seguiram os efeitos das medidas expansionistas do governo e dos desdobramentos envolvendo Flávio Bolsonaro. Nos mercados, a semana foi marcada por forte desempenho das bolsas globais. As bolsas americanas subiram entre 1,5% e 3%, enquanto mercados ligados à tecnologia continuaram se destacando, com alta expressiva na Coreia do Sul e desempenho positivo de emergentes. Os juros fecharam globalmente, com destaque para os Treasuries, enquanto o petróleo caiu cerca de 9% na semana, refletindo o maior otimismo com um possível acordo geopolítico. O dólar teve comportamento misto, enquanto o ouro avançou levemente. No Brasil, o Ibovespa caiu cerca de 1%, pressionado pela Petrobras e pelo ambiente doméstico. Na próxima semana, destaque para dados de atividade e mercado de trabalho nos EUA, além da continuidade das negociações entre EUA e Irã.

David Erfle of Junior Miner Junky says buy the current boredom and weak sentiment in gold and junior mining stocks amidst strong Q1 miner profits and historically low sector open interest. Erfle argues the recent sideways action after a sharp gold and silver run-up and correction is normal consolidation before another up leg, citing ongoing central-bank gold buying, selling of U.S. Treasuries, stagflation dynamics, and currency debasement risks. He notes that miners are showing relative strength near 200-day moving averages and are benefitting from lower oil prices. David compares undervalued gold equities like Newmont to expensive broader equities, discusses Equinox Gold's acquisition of Orla and Perpetua's EXIM Bank loan for the Stibnite project. Erfle emphasizes contrarian positioning, patience, and expecting false moves before breakouts. 00:00 Intro 01:55 Consolidation Not Collapse 04:30 Macro Gold Drivers 07:15 Fed Trap & Valuations 09:29 Equinox-Orla Merger 10:29 Perpetua's EXIM Bank Loan 10:56 Speculating on Uncertainty 12:16 Novel Mining Methods 13:22 Gold Silver Copper Focus 14:47 Sentiment & Fake-outs 19:43 Buy Boredom Wrap Up David's website: https://juniorminerjunky.com/ Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Mining Stock Education (MSE) offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its content and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. MSE and its owner may hold financial interests in the companies discussed and can trade such securities without notice. If you buy stock in a company featured on MSE, for your own protection, you should assume that it is MSE's owner personally selling you that stock. MSE is biased towards its advertising sponsors which make this platform possible. MSE is not liable for representations, warranties, or omissions in its content. By accessing MSE content, users agree that MSE and its affiliates bear no liability related to the information provided or the investment decisions you make. Full disclaimer: https://www.miningstockeducation.com/disclaimer/

Brief Summary:Bitcoin fell below $73,000 this morning, hitting its lowest level since April 13 as U.S.-Iran strikes rattled global markets.Brent crude jumped toward the mid-$90s, reviving inflation concerns and pressuring risk assets.Crypto liquidations totaled roughly $958.8 million over 24 hours, with longs accounting for about $897 million.Ethereum broke below $2,000 for the first time since late March, while Ether futures open interest hit a record 16.39 million ETH.BlackRock's IBIT saw $527.84 million in net outflows Wednesday, its second-largest single-day withdrawal since launch.The 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a combined $733.43 million Wednesday, with more than $2 billion leaving the complex over two weeks.Samsung affiliates agreed to buy a combined 4% stake in Dunamu, operator of Upbit, for about $408 million.VanEck's tokenized Treasury fund VBILL is now live on Euler, allowing tokenized U.S. Treasuries to be used as onchain collateral.The White House is reviewing a proposed CFTC rule on prediction markets, which could shape Kalshi, Polymarket, sports, election, and event-contract markets.The CFTC and Gemini jointly asked a federal court to unwind Gemini's old $5 million settlement.Reuters reported that UniCredit warned Europe may be less able than the U.S. to contain crypto-bank shocks.A Google engineer was charged over alleged insider trading on Polymarket using confidential Google search data.U.S. Treasury operations from May 28 to June 5 could drain roughly $150 billion in liquidity, adding another macro pressure point for Bitcoin.CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season indicator fell to 30 out of 100, showing broad altcoin weakness. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are bonds becoming more attractive again? Or is the exploding U.S. national debt a ticking time bomb for investors? Welcome to the 300th episode of The Market Moment! In this milestone episode, Matt, John, and Lee dive deep into the massive shifts happening in the fixed income and Treasury markets. After a brutal couple of years for fixed income, long‑duration Treasury yields recently climbed over 5%… for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. They break down the exact math of why bonds got crushed when the Fed rapidly hiked rates, the critical difference between investing in bonds for steady income versus total return, and how creeping inflation might force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. We also tackle the massive elephant in the room: the U.S. government spending a staggering $1 trillion annually just to service the interest on our national debt. They discuss what this means for investor confidence, foreign nations offloading Treasuries, and the long-term macro outlook.  #nationaldebt  #bondmarket #interestrates #macroeconomics #TheMarketMoment  Enjoyed the episode? Don't forget to:

Hampus, Viktor, Johan och Jacob debriefar avsnittet med Robert Bergqvist, och pratar om den amerikanska statsskulden som hela tiden når nya höjder. Plus DOGE, Ray Dalios skuldcykler, historiska penningexperiment och hard vs soft money. I veckans avsnitt medverkar: Jacob BursellHampus BrodénViktor FritzénJohan Isaksson TIDSSTÄMPLAR 00:00 Introduktion: USA:s externa statsskuld passerar 100% av BNP 00:02 Varför DOGE misslyckades – mandatory spending äter upp budgeten 00:06 Moodys nedgradering av USA och vad 30% räntekostnader 2035 innebär 00:10 Återblick på Robert Bergqvist-avsnittet: debatten om penningmängd och inflation 00:12 MV=PQ förklarad: penningmängd, omsättningshastighet och prisnivå 00:14 Historiska experiment: conquistadorernas silver och Iraks dubbla valutor efter kriget 00:18 Hur banker skapar pengar ur tomma intet – och vad det innebär för penningmängden 00:20 Finanskrisen 2008: varför centralbankernas sedelpressar inte skapade inflation 00:24 Kvantitativa lättnader (QE) förklarade: hur centralbanker trycker ner långa räntor 00:28 Varför inflationen uteblev under nollränteåren – Kina och outsourcing som deflationsmotor 00:34 Ray Dalios skuldcykelteori: korta och långa cykler på 70–80 år 00:38 Var befinner vi oss nu? Slutet på den långa skuldcykeln – med Japan som föregångare 00:40 Scenarion framåt: "beautiful deleveraging", monetisering eller default 00:42 Guldet kopplar loss från realräntan – ett marknadssignal om något nytt? 00:44 Treasuries tappar sin "safe haven"-status i börskrascher 00:46 Stablecoins som ett sätt att exportera dollarn och hantera statsskulden 00:50 Kan centralbankerna acceptera AI-driven deflation? Distinktionen mellan bra och dålig deflation 00:56 Kommunikationsutmaningen: vad händer med tvåprocentsmålet? 00:58 Lynn Aldens "gradual print"-tes 01:00 Stablecoins i Turkiet och varför dollar vinner som betalmedel 01:04 Ray Dalio och historien om fiat och hårt pengar – ett evigt pendel 01:08 Storkrisen 1929: varför centralbanker faktiskt räddat oss från upprepning 01:10 Ojämlikhet och bostadsarv: samhällskontraktets sprickor 01:14 Bitcoin och "Fix the money, fix the world" 01:16 AI som produktivitetssprång – vägen ut ur skuldfällan? OM PODDEN Marknaden är en podd om börs, ekonomi och finans. Vi som gör den är Hampus Brodén, Johan Isaksson, Petter Hjerstedt, Viktor Fritzén, Lars Jörnow och Jacob Bursell. Följ oss på X: https://x.com/marknadspodden Hör av er till oss på jacob@monopolmedia.se #marknadspodden #ekonomi #statsskuld #inflation #centralbank #penningpolitik #raydalio #stablecoins #bitcoin #AI #deflation #QE #guld #skuldcykel

Alice Han and James Kynge break down why Russia is pushing hard for China to approve the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, what China's accelerating selloff of U.S. Treasuries could mean for the American economy, and how China became the first country to commercially approve a brain-computer implant — moving ahead of the U.S. and Elon Musk's Neuralink. They also explore the deepening China-Russia alliance, mounting pressure on the U.S. dollar, and whether China is beginning to pull ahead in the global race for technological dominance. Subscribe to China Decode on Substack for weekly analysis, livestreams, and deep dives into the biggest story shaping the global economy: chinadecode.profgmedia.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode we answer emails from TJ, Jose and Optimus Bill.  We discuss the foibles of trying to catch up via investment picking if you are behind on retirement, debunk CAPE-style and other crystal ball forecasts from "experts" that Level Two investors often fixate upon, lay out practical growth-tilted allocations that can beat narrative-driven investing and invite you all to contact Optimus Bill about your Risk Parity Radio listening habits.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:FI Service Corp DC Charitable Event:  DC Double PlayFather McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterMichael Batnick Critique of CAPE Ratio "Predictions":  Stocks Are More Expensive Than They Used to BeAccumulating With a Golden Ratio Portfolio Article:  Minimize Your Miss – Portfolio ChartsCatching Up to FI Episode 100:  0️⃣ From Zero to Hero: A Late Starter's Guide to the Galaxy

Matt and Doug discuss signs of consumer strain in the U.S.—record-low sentiment, rising delinquencies, and high prices—alongside a stock market at all-time highs, comparing the disconnect to historical episodes like Germany's 1923 hyperinflation. They argue official inflation measures are unreliable, deficits and money printing persist, foreign holders are cutting U.S. Treasuries, and gold benefits while mining stocks remain cheap; Doug remains long gold, oil, and commodities and warns the AI/data-center boom may be a debt-fueled bubble. The conversation turns to widening inequality, debt-based consumption tools, weaker job prospects even for top graduates, and fears of social unrest and potential civil conflict. They criticize what they describe as escalating corruption under Trump, including a DOJ settlement structure and extensive trading disclosures suggesting insider activity, then discuss elections, AIPAC/Israel influence, speech taboos, and rising generational and ethnic tensions. 00:00 Everybody Wants Love 00:08 Economy vs Market Highs 01:34 Sticker Shock in America 04:28 Inflation Numbers Doubt 05:57 Treasuries to Gold Rush 07:12 Mining Stocks and ESG 08:36 AI Data Center Bubble 10:32 Haves and Have Nots 12:08 Buy Now Pay Later Living 13:23 Decades of Debt Warnings 17:10 Trump Corruption Claims 17:50 DOJ Settlement Slush Fund 24:25 Insider Trading Allegations 25:50 Epstein and Ukraine Talk 28:59 Elections and Voter Trust 32:17 Israel Influence and AIPAC 36:38 Hate Speech and Taboo Topics 40:32 Tribalism and Protected Classes 44:22 Civil War and Generational Rift 47:22 Wrap Up and Next Guest

In this episode we answer emails from Luc, Deep, and Paul.  We discuss the French Canadian "Sak kosh" portfolio, try to help out the elder Sonia sleep well at night, distinguishing small cap blend funds from small cap value funds, and share how we use AI tools to summarize long investing content without losing the source material. Links:  Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterThe Superman Portfolio Withdrawal Rates:  Withdrawal Rates – Portfolio ChartsThe Superman Portfolio Drawdowns:  Drawdowns – Portfolio ChartsThe Superman Portfolio Portfolio Matrix:  Portfolio Matrix With The Superman Portfolio.png - Google DriveRPR Episode 436 Summary Video:  RPR Episode 436 Illustrated: The Two Halves of Your Financial LifeAdmiral Ackbar's Best Practices For Retirement Planning:  NotebookLM - Retirement Tactical Briefing with Admiral Ackbar and Tenon FinancialDaniel Plainview's "I Drink Your Milkshake" Best Practices for Retirement Planning:  NotebookLM - Plainview Wealth ExtractionVideo Version:  NotebookLM - The Ruthless ExtractionBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:A listener builds a Canadian “risk parity style” portfolio that looks like a mad science project on paper and then asks the question we all quietly worry about: is this clever diversification, or is it just complexity wearing a lab coat. We walk through the logic behind mixing small cap value, gold, long-duration Treasuries, managed futures, and a small dose of leveraged ETFs, plus the real constraint that changes everything for many investors: you can only buy what your country and accounts actually offer. I share how I think about backtesting when tools don't support Canadian ETFs, why proxies can be useful, and why great historical results still don't remove behavior risk.Then we shift to a common real-life retirement planning scenario: someone in their mid-70s sells a home, moves into a retirement community, and only needs about 2% per year from investments. Instead of forcing a complicated portfolio to do the job, I explain why a single premium immediate annuity can be the cleanest solution for a very risk-averse retiree, potentially covering that gap with a relatively small slice of the nest egg and letting the rest stay invested simply and calmly. We also talk about separating mandatory expenses from discretionary spending so the plan feels safe and sustainable.We close with a fast answer on asset location for a saver juggling multiple account types and debating small cap value placement. The punchline: make sure you're actually buying small cap value, and don't over-optimize what usually doesn't matter much. Plus, a quick look at using Google NotebookLM to summarize long podcasts and documents in a way that stays grounded in the inputs you provide. If you found this helpful, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review so more DIY investors can find it.Support the show

The easy 5% returns on cash may be disappearing — but that doesn't mean your money has to stop working hard.In this episode of The Agent of Wealth Podcast, host Marc Bautis breaks down one of the biggest shifts happening in personal finance right now: the decline of high-yield cash account rates. After two years of earning 5%+ in savings accounts and money markets, many investors are wondering where to move their cash next.In this episode, you will learn:Why high-yield savings accounts and money market funds are no longer paying what they did just a year ago.The differences between money market funds, CDs, Treasuries, I Bonds, municipal bonds, annuities, and dividend-paying stocks.How to evaluate cash investments using the four pillars: risk, liquidity, rate, and taxes.Tax-efficient strategies that can help high-income investors potentially keep more of their returns.And more!Tune in for an in-depth discussion on how to reposition cash in a falling-rate environment, the importance of matching investments to your time horizon, and why the highest yield isn't always the best after-tax outcome for your financial plan.Resources:Episode Transcript & Blog | Bautis Financial: 8 Hillside Ave, Suite LL1 Montclair, New Jersey 07042 (862) 205-5000 | Schedule an Introductory CallWant to be a guest on The Agent of Wealth? Send Marc Bautis a message on PodMatch, here: https://tinyurl.com/mt4z6ywc

In Episode 188 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, welcome new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the only way they know how: with data, context, and zero sugarcoating.When Jerome Powell took over in February 2018, the Dow dropped 4.6% on his first day, the worst debut of any Fed chair in modern memory. This time, it's not the equity market doing the hazing. It's the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield sits above 5% for the first time since 2007, and Japan's yields just hit levels not seen since the 1990s. Ryan and Sonu explain why the dynamics that once pushed foreign money into Treasuries are quietly reversing and what that means for U.S. investors.From there, Sonu walks through industrial production data that almost nobody is talking about. Manufacturing is running at nearly 5% annualized. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms. This is hard data, not a survey, and it runs directly counter to the narrative that the economy is softening.Then comes earnings. With 91% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings growth is running at 27% against expectations of 13%. Communication services, expected to be down nearly 4%, came in up roughly 40%. The consumer is holding up, too, with retail sales running at 13% annualized and 95.2% of all household debt paid on time per the New York Fed.The episode closes with a look at what to watch: NVIDIA earnings, FOMC minutes, and a bond market both hosts are keeping a very close eye on.Key Takeaways:The bond market is testing Kevin Warsh the same way equity markets tested every Fed chair before him, and the dynamics driving yields higher are not going away quickly.AI is showing up in the hard data, not just stock prices. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms.S&P 500 growth came in at 27% against a 13% estimate during earnings season. Communication services swung from an expected decline of nearly 4% to a gain of roughly 40%.The two-year Treasury yield above the Fed funds rate signals the market believes the Fed is behind the curve. Rate cut calls from the sell side are, in Sonu's words, a John McEnroe moment.The S&P 500 is up seven consecutive weeks, gaining over 16% during that stretch. One year after prior streaks of this magnitude, the market has never been lower and is up 16% on average.Jump to:0:00 — Welcome and Who's Running the Fed?6:10 — Bonds Are Testing the New Fed Chair13:05 — Manufacturing Heats Up and AI Shows Up in Hard Data21:40 — Japan Sparks a Global Yield Reprice34:55 — Portfolio Moves on Duration and Cash43:55 — Earnings and AI Spending49:20 — Consumer Strength, Retail Sales, and Final ThoughtsConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Yields on long-dated Treasuries hit their highest level in nearly 20 years and stocks ended the day lower across the board. Are equities finally starting to reflect the risks in the market? Plus Nvidia reports earnings after the bell tomorrow. What investors will be watching and how to position now. Fast Money Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

As Japanese yields spike and investors dump billions in U.S. Treasuries, Gareth Soloway joins Daniela Cambone to explain why the bond market may be flashing a major red signal.Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcastor Call 866-349-3310 

Stocks are shaky following Friday's sell-off in reaction to rising yields and oil. Treasuries might continue calling the shots in a week dominated by retail earnings and Nvidia. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The {securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. For illustrative purpose(s) only. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please seeschwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0130-0426) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode we answer emails from Geraldo, Rock, Ute.  We discuss how to give well, shifting from big-name school donations to smaller charities with immediate impact, moving from individual stocks to a Golden Butterfly style portfolio with less stress, treating Roth conversions as optional and highly personal rather than automatic, using a conservative Interactive Brokers margin loan as a temporary cash buffer, lowering margin-call risk with diversification and alternatives, and pressure-testing inflation claims for retirees and comparing U.S. data with and older study from The Netherlands.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterWCI Podcast Episode re Charitable Giving with Rebecca Herbst:  How to Maximize the Impact of Your Charitable Giving - WCI Podcast #470Referenced Inflation Study Paper:  S1474747216000202jra 85..109J.P Morgan Inflation Study:  JP_Morgan_White_Paper_Three_Retirement_Spending_Surprises.pdf - Google DriveRAND Inflation Study:  Spending Trajectories After Age 65: Variation by Initial Wealth | RANDBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:You can be “right” about taxes and still be wrong about living. We dig into three listener emails that expose a common trap for smart investors: turning retirement into an endless optimization project, while the real goal is a calmer portfolio, a sustainable withdrawal plan, and a life you actually want to spend money on.First, we walk through a practical way to transition from individual stocks to a Golden Butterfly portfolio without getting paralyzed by detail. We talk about why macro allocation matters more than the exact ticker list, how to think about growth vs value exposure, and why simplifying inside retirement accounts is usually easier than in taxable accounts where capital gains can bite. We also share what we'd try to eliminate first when someone is de-risking for retirement.Next, we zoom out to retirement tax planning and charitable giving. We discuss why blanket advice on Roth conversion strategy and withdrawal order often fails, what it means to “disgorge” traditional IRAs before RMD age, and how qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) can be a quietly powerful tool for charitably inclined retirees.Then we tackle margin as a tool, not a lifestyle. We break down using a conservative Interactive Brokers margin backstop, how diversification can reduce drawdowns and margin-call risk, and why assets like Treasuries, gold, and managed futures show up again in risk parity style thinking. We also address a listener challenge on retiree inflation and why country, data vintage, and healthcare systems can flip the conclusion.If you like clear portfolio mechanics with real-world tradeoffs, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review so more DIY investors can find us.Support the show

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin GrahamMarkets had a strong week but closed Friday in the red. Was it headlines, politics, or the Middle East? Maybe partly. But the bigger story may be interest rates and Treasury yields staying elevated, making lower-risk investments like Treasuries more attractive than stocks in the short term.James breaks down the latest market news, China trade talks, oil prices, the Fed outlook, and why long-term investors may need to stay focused on the bigger picture. Volatility is normal, cash can create opportunity during dips, and AI could still be one of the biggest growth stories ahead.Hosted by James Walters, CIMA®, CRPC®, and Brandon West, CPA, co-owners of West & Walters Tax and Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and tax firm based in Carlsbad, California. Our goal is to share market insights, investing tips, tax strategies, and straightforward financial education to help viewers make smarter financial decisions. All Information is educational in its intent and distribution! Please do not consider this personal financial advice. We believe all clients have unique situations and thus require unique advice.

The term premium — investors' compensation for holding longer-term Treasuries instead of T-bills — fluctuates with inflation uncertainty, federal deficit worries, and central banks' balance sheets. The New York Fed's Adrian, Crump, and Mönch model estimates the 10-year Treasury term premium is higher than before the pandemic but substantially lower than it was pre- GFC. The post-pandemic term premium will shape the path of longer-term Treasuries as bond investors consider what the new normal looks like. In this episode, we talk with Emanuel Mönch, Professor of Financial and Monetary Economics at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, about the models estimating the term premium, what's driven changes over the last forty years, and how it could shift under a Warsh-led Fed.

Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says the stock market looks unbalanced to her, with the current rally built around mechanical issues, like an explosion of option sales that impact market performance. She is expecting a pullback, and says things could get ugly — with the Standard & Poor's potentially losing at least 1,500 points, — about 2,000 points — which is why she has moved an overweight part of her own portfolio into Treasuries. She sounds a note for caution during the conversation, noting that "Markets are unforgiving in the short run, but in the long run they are very forgiving. Almost always, you will get an opportunity — it might be months or years down the road — to get back at a price that is reasonable and something you are comfortable with, as opposed to chasing it." Veteran market observer Nick Sargen, a regular contributor to The Hill, returns to The Big Interview to discuss the updated version of his book, "Global Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets." Sargen says the market is going through a lot of events — from the war in Iran to the fighting in ukraine, and more, but these events haven't had the historical impact on the market expected by these shocking events because artificial-intelligence spending has been so big that it just keeps the market powering along. "The optimism over A.I. in the stock market is having more impact on investors than the pessimism that consumers are currently feeling." John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, returns to the show to discuss how recent troubles in business-development companies created a haves and have nots" among BDCs, with the ones that have exposure to software loans suffering and struggling while the ones that aren't in software represent a strong opportunity to get double-digit yields and solid returns on equity.

This week, we discuss a series of perplexing market moves as inflation readings, oil prices, and Treasury yields all moved higher at once. Both headline CPI and PPI surprised to the upside, placing the Federal Reserve and its new Chair, Kevin Warsh, in an increasingly difficult position. According to the latest inflation nowcast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, inflation is expected to come in at more than double the Fed's two percent target. Meanwhile, yields on ten and thirty year Treasuries climbed sharply as investors demanded greater compensation for rising inflation risks and mounting concerns over America's fiscal trajectory. The yield on the thirty year Treasury bond has now reached its highest level in nineteen years. Oil prices have also continued their ascent. Equity investors, however, appear largely unconcerned, choosing instead to focus on strong earnings reports from the hyperscalers. The divergence between buoyant equity markets and increasingly anxious bond markets suggests that investors are drawing very different conclusions about the economic outlook.

Explore the mounting monetary risks facing the U.S., from soaring debt and inflation to weakening demand for Treasuries and accelerating de-dollarization. Andy Schectman outlines why gold and silver remain critical hedges, highlighting central bank accumulation and structural market dislocations. Jason Cozens explains how modern tech enables everyday spending in gold, bridging sound money with today's digital payments. Practical strategies, historical context, and actionable steps to safeguard family and business wealth.

US equity-index futures advanced as traders bet the record-breaking rally driven by enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence trade has further room to run. The gains in equities masked worries about inflation that have driven bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Treasuries broadly held their losses with yields on benchmark 10-year holding near the highest since July and 30-year yields trading above 5%. Investors have sold government bonds after back-to-back US inflation reports this week showed mounting price pressures. For more on the markets, we turn to Paul Dobson, Bloomberg's Executive Editor for Asia Markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

U.S. equities closed mostly lower Tuesday, as semis, memory, and software led declines amid a broader risk-off tone driven by higher yields and rising oil. WTI crude jumped 4.2% back above $100/barrel on lingering US-Iran tensions, Treasuries weakened with the 30Y yield back above 5%, and a hotter-than-expected core April CPI print reinforced market pricing leaning toward modestly more Fed tightening through year-end.

They can't harm you if they can't find you. Use code SOAR at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/soarChina may be quietly preparing for a dollar crisis , and gold is at the center of the strategy. Alasdair Macleod explains why China is reducing exposure to U.S. Treasuries, building yuan-based gold infrastructure, and positioning itself for a world where Western fiat currencies lose credibility.------------

The Clarity Act is being sold as stablecoin regulation, but the real story is much bigger. This breaks down how the US could use private stablecoins to extend dollar dominance, funnel global demand into Treasuries, and quietly roll out a CBDC-style system through the back door. Michael Saylor, Ray Dalio, Bretton Woods, fiat debasement, AI, and Bitcoin all collide in one massive macro shift.SPONSORS✅ Ledn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.nmj1gs2i.com/9W598/9B9DM/?source_id=podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Simply Bitcoin clients get 0.25% off their first loanNeed liquidity without selling your Bitcoin? Ledn has been the trusted Bitcoin-backed lending platform for 6+ years. Access your BTC's value while HODLing.

Mike Green returns to On The Tape discuss why U.S. equities hit record highs despite the Iran war and oil spike, arguing systematic 401(k) and volatility/trend strategies drove historic inflows and that markets had largely priced in fear via VIX, correlation, skew, and heavy hedging that later unwound. He critiques Nasdaq's new low-float multiplier rules as boosting demand for IPOs like SpaceX/OpenAI and warns S&P's proposal to waive profitability requirements could turn the index into a private-equity exit vehicle and alter its historical quality bias. Green views the Fed as mostly narrative-driven except during major rate shifts, faults data-dependence, and says inflation swaps don't show a breakout, while high rates act as a fiscal transfer that reinforces a K-shaped economy. He explains passive bond indexing can underweight long-duration Treasuries, potentially motivating buybacks/yield-curve-control-like actions. The conversation also covers AI capex, emerging AI-driven job restructuring favoring older workers, and Bitcoin's ETF-driven financialization and limited utility. Show Notes Checkout Mike's Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/ Follow On The Tape on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe8y7CzcjhMPTzem-Zn6sqA —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Is a global debt emergency on the horizon?   Big Tech's bond-issuing spree is helping to pay for its massive artificial intelligence buildout. And it's not expected to slow down this year.  Meanwhile, the US federal deficit has swelled to about $39 trillion, according to the US Treasury Department. That's raising red flags about the potential impact on the Treasuries market. Government and corporate debt are growing but for different reasons. How should investors think about it?   Dominic Pappalardo is the chief multi-asset strategist for Morningstar Wealth. It's part of registered investment advisor, Morningstar Investment Management.     Why Bonds Still Have Long-Term Appeal Despite Recent Wobbles     On this episode: 00:00:00 Welcome 00:01:29 Big Tech's AI bond-issuing spree explained 00:03:51 What's driving the US federal deficit higher 00:06:04 Calls to prepare for a bond market emergency  00:07:38 Government vs. corporate debt key differences 00:08:45 Potential risks lurking in today's bond market 00:10:33 Bond portfolio opportunities and investor takeaways   Watch more from Morningstar: 10 Exceptional Stocks With Double-Digit Dividend Raises Investors May Be Ignoring Big Market Disruptions. Is There Risk to the Rebuff? Vanguard Wrote the Playbook for Success. Now, It Must Evolve to Stay on Top   Follow Morningstar on social: Facebook https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/ X https://x.com/MorningstarInc Instagram https://www.instagram.com/morningstarinc/?hl=en LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/morningstar/posts/?feedView=all Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, we discuss the Employment Report, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. Although the headline employment figures appeared strong, the underlying composition was less reassuring. Nearly all of the payroll growth came from lower wage sectors and industries where workers are more likely to hold multiple jobs. In that sense, the rise in payrolls may be less a sign of strength than of strain, as more consumers take on additional work to make ends meet. That interpretation was reinforced by a 449,000 increase in the number of people working part time for economic reasons. The JOLTS survey told a similarly subdued story, with low quits suggesting continued uncertainty and caution among workers. Finally, Greg Abel's message from the Berkshire Hathaway meeting echoed our own: be patient. Warren Buffett noted that there had been only five truly “juicy” periods in his career. Until such opportunities return, Berkshire will continue selling equities and holding cash in Treasuries. Without those rare windows, Buffett's extraordinary record of outperforming the market by roughly two times over six decades would likely not have been possible.

AI agents are starting to move money. Not someday. Right now. Tonight we break down the rapidly emerging connection between AI agents, banking infrastructure, tokenized assets, and XRP — and why this may represent the next phase of the global financial system. Mastercard, Ripple, Ondo Finance, and Kinexys by JPMorgan just completed a landmark pilot connecting the XRP Ledger with interbank settlement rails for near real-time cross-border settlement of tokenized U.S. Treasuries. At the same time:

Bitcoin has blasted past $81,000, but somehow that is not even the wildest story in crypto this week. In Episode 807 of The Bad Crypto Podcast, Joel Comm and Travis Wright break down a massive week where Bitcoin ETF inflows surged, Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin stack grew to nearly 4% of the total supply, Google committed up to $40 billion toward Anthropic, and AI agents began crossing into territory once reserved for humans: opening accounts, making payments, and deploying software. The boys also dig into the explosive growth of tokenized real-world assets, including Treasuries, gold, and stocks moving on-chain, plus the looming May 21st deadline for the Clarity Act and what it could mean for XRP and the broader crypto market. Crypto, AI, and traditional finance are no longer separate stories. They are becoming one very strange, very powerful story. Welcome to the future. Stay bad.Support the show: https://badcryptopodcast.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!Mike Green returns to discuss why U.S. equities hit record highs despite the Iran war and oil spike, arguing systematic 401(k) and volatility/trend strategies drove historic inflows and that markets had largely priced in fear via VIX, correlation, skew, and heavy hedging that later unwound. He critiques Nasdaq's new low-float multiplier rules as boosting demand for IPOs like SpaceX/OpenAI and warns S&P's proposal to waive profitability requirements could turn the index into a private-equity exit vehicle and alter its historical quality bias. Green views the Fed as mostly narrative-driven except during major rate shifts, faults data-dependence, and says inflation swaps don't show a breakout, while high rates act as a fiscal transfer that reinforces a K-shaped economy. He explains passive bond indexing can underweight long-duration Treasuries, potentially motivating buybacks/yield-curve-control-like actions. The conversation also covers AI capex, emerging AI-driven job restructuring favoring older workers, and Bitcoin's ETF-driven financialization and limited utility.Checkout Mike's SubStack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Steve Laipply walks through recent ETF flows, noting $46B in net inflows into fixed income ETFs in 1Q. Only $4B went into active bond ETFs, but the demand is growing quickly. High-quality fixed income has also dominated allocations, with Treasuries making up around 50%. He discusses why traders are making these moves, and how changes in Fed policy could affect yields.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this episode we answer emails from Thirsty Horse, Mark, and Mike.  We discuss a wise friend and lessons on clarity, happiness, and preparing for the end, how we got involved with the Father McKenna Center and Fairfax CASA, and dig into the real work behind CASA and foster care.  Then we pivot back to practical investing and tax planning without shortcuts. Links:Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASAChoose FI Episode on The Five Regrets of the Dying (and Mamie):  Top Five Regrets of the Dying | Book Club | Ep 574Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:You can have a rock-solid retirement portfolio and still miss the whole point. We start with a final push for Mary's Fairfax CASA fundraiser, then share why a Court Appointed Special Advocate matters for kids in the foster care system and what real advocacy looks like when courts, schools, and social services move slowly. Mary also tells a case outcome that sticks with you: a child moving from neglect and instability to a stable home after a parent does the hard work over years.From there, we answer a listener who asks the question behind so many “financial independence” plans: how do you decide what level of time, emotional commitment, and responsibility you can take on? Frank revisits the story of Mamie McCoy and the urgency that comes with a finite life, then we get concrete about the skills that make a strong CASA and the traits that help foster parents provide stability, empathy, and advocacy for children affected by trauma.We also handle classic Risk Parity Radio topics for the DIY investor: sustainable withdrawal rates, asset allocation, and diversification. We talk through an equity-heavy portfolio that adds long-term Treasuries like VGLT for recession insurance, plus our simple “give away 1% of your portfolio each year” goal for intentional generosity. Finally, we take on portfolio automation, rebalancing, and a big tax-planning mistake: discounting traditional IRA balances by a made-up percentage instead of modeling taxes properly and considering Social Security timing.If you get value from the show, subscribe, share it with a friend, and leave a rating and review. What's one cause you'd actually show up for with your time?Support the show

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market close on Tuesday, April 28, with tech and the NASDAQ down about 0.9% while the Dow was flat and the S&P 500 fell about 0.5%, driven by AI concerns and competition after OpenAI missed numbers amid market-share losses to Gemini and Anthropic. He notes the importance of sector divergence and warns that semiconductors alone are about 17% of the index, nearing the combined weight of several major sectors. Treasuries were flat, while oil surged (WTI up ~3.7%, Brent over 104 and WTI near 100) on ongoing Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, potentially weighing on GDP and global growth. He addresses record margins as largely reflecting index composition shift toward higher-margin tech. Economic updates: Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.9% in February, consumer confidence beat expectations in April, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was 3. 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:31 AI Tech Selloff 01:19 Oil Spike Geopolitics 01:55 Semis Index Concentration 03:17 Record Margins Explained 04:45 Key Economic Updates 05:39 Wrap Up and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Peter Schiff breaks down why the dollar is in real trouble—and why gold may be the only way out. Kerry Lutz sits down with Peter Schiff to unpack mounting pressure on the U.S. dollar and the growing risk of a sovereign debt crisis. Schiff explains why foreign demand for Treasuries is fading, how the Fed is effectively monetizing debt, and why repeated fiscal "kicks" may be pushing the system toward a breaking point. He lays out his strategy—reducing dollar exposure in favor of foreign dividend-paying stocks and gold—and why that approach has been outperforming. The discussion also covers gold and silver trends, mining valuations, and new developments in gold-backed financial products. Bottom line: the risks are rising—and the window to act may be closing. Find Peter here: https://www.schiffgold.com  Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5

Welcome to "Ahead in the Count," presented by BIP Wealth. Our Baseball Division combines their collegiate and professional baseball playing experience with financial acumen to provide expertise in life on and off the field. We aim to give ballplayers and their families a better understanding about their unique lifestyle, the opportunities that come from playing this game, and insight into the complex financial world. This is "Ahead in the Count," hosted by Nolan Alexander, from BIP Wealth. The opening quarter of 2026 was anything but quiet. With a war in Iran reshaping the geopolitical chessboard, fractured Western alliances, the ongoing AI investment surge, and rising questions about the death of Software as a Service, BIP Wealth CIO Eric Cramer unpacks the forces defining portfolio performance right now, and what smart investors should be doing in response. In this episode of Ahead in the Count, Eric, BIP Wealth Baseball Division's Chase Murray, and host Nolan Alexander break down the Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Review with a focus on three tectonic shifts: realigning global trade power, the volatility return, and emerging opportunities hiding inside the chaos — especially for net savers and professional athletes still in their earning years. Shifting Global Trade Alliances How the post-WWII Western alliance system is fracturing — and why the EU–India trade deal, CPTPP expansion, and new South American agreements matter to your portfolio even if you've never heard of them. Market Volatility Is Back — and What Could Happen Eric explains why Q1's selloff was a warning shot, how risk has increased across every asset class including U.S. Treasuries, and why "safe havens" are harder to find than ever before. International Equities Outperforming the U.S. For the first time in years, BIP Wealth is rethinking its traditional overweight in U.S. equities. Find out which global markets are generating real returns as America's share of the global index shrinks. AI & the SaaS Apocalypse The so-called "SaaS-pocalypse" is creating zombie companies in private markets. Eric explains which company traits will pivot successfully to AI and which won't survive — and how that ripples into private equity and private credit valuations. Private Credit: Risk Repricing Creates New Opportunity As spreads widen from SOFR+6% to SOFR+7%, new private credit deals are more rewarding for incoming investors. Eric walks through how to think about the math, and why short-term price marks shouldn't panic long-term holders. Tax Strategies for High-Income Earners With mounting U.S. debt likely to push tax brackets higher regardless of which party holds power, BIP Wealth is rolling out new municipal bond strategies to shelter income; a timely move for athletes in peak earning years. Why This Could Be a Great Entry Point for Net Savers Despite the fear you see online, Eric makes the case that for baseball players and professional athletes still actively earning and saving, right now may be one of the best market entry points in years. CONTACT For more information: jhester@bipwealth.com, kschmidt@bipwealth.com, cmurray@bipwealth.com, jhermida@bipwealth.com Visit: BIPWealth.com

A ceasefire extension provided the key tailwind, allowing equities to grind higher and look past a 3.7% WTI crude rally alongside extended energy supply constraints. Treasuries were modestly firmer with yields down 1-2 bp following a well-received 20-year auction, while a resurgent AI trade and continued strength in Q1 earnings reinforced the risk-on tone.

Hans Leida says rising healthcare costs are outpacing traditional sector strategies, creating a need for more targeted inflation hedges. He introduces the Milliman Healthcare Inflation Guard ETF (MHIG) and Milliman Healthcare Inflation Plus ETF (MHIP), which blend healthcare equities with assets like Treasuries and gold to help protect purchasing power for HSA and retirement investors.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Book a call: https://remnantfinance.com/calendar Out Print the Fed with a 1% target per week: https://remnantfinance.com/optionsEmail us at info@remnantfinance.com or visit https://remnantfinance.com for more informationFOLLOW REMNANT FINANCEYoutube: @RemnantFinance (https://www.youtube.com/@RemnantFinance)Facebook: @remnantfinance (https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61560694316588)Twitter: @remnantfinance (https://x.com/remnantfinance)TikTok: @RemnantFinanceDon't forget to hit LIKE and SUBSCRIBE_____________________________In this episode, Hans explains the macroeconomic reality most people feel right now. Your purchasing power is quietly declining, and it's not by accident. From the rise of AI replacing real economic value to the mechanics of the national debt, this episode walks through how the system actually works.He explains who we're really in debt to, why the U.S. can't stop borrowing, and how the constant refinancing of trillions in debt creates a self-reinforcing loop. As interest rates rise and more debt comes due, the Federal Reserve and Treasury are left with fewer and fewer options.That leads to one likely outcome: yield curve control. A policy where the Fed steps in to cap interest rates and buy bonds with newly created money. Chapters:00:00 – Opening segment02:27 – Why understanding the Fed actually matters04:18 – Treasuries, global demand, and dollar fear narratives06:52 – AI replacing jobs and collapsing value of labor09:18 – Introduction to the national debt mechanics14:02 – Why rising rates are a massive problem16:48 – The $10 trillion rollover problem explained20:18 – Why the U.S. must keep borrowing (no way out)25:18 – Interest payments and the compounding loop28:42 – The $12 trillion annual borrowing reality31:22 – QE vs Yield Curve Control (key distinction)36:05 – What this means for cash, savings, and bonds37:12 – Impact on gold, Bitcoin, stocks, and real estate39:08 – Practical strategy: protecting and positioning capital45:20 – Closing segmentMost people don't realize their standard of living is being propped up by a system that's changing. If your job can be replaced by cheaper labor or AI, your income is no longer tied to real economic value, and that gap is starting to close.The U.S. doesn't “pay off” its debt. It refinances it. Roughly $10 trillion in debt comes due in a single year, and the government must borrow new money at current rates just to pay back old bondholders.The Fed has limited options left. Cutting spending isn't realistic, raising taxes won't close the gap, and growing out of the debt isn't happening fast enough. That leaves one primary tool.Yield curve control is likely the next move. Instead of controlling how much it buys, the Fed sets a target interest rate and buys whatever amount of bonds it takes to keep rates there.This policy quietly erodes purchasing power. Savings accounts, cash, and fixed-income assets lose ground over time as inflation stays higher than the returns they generate.Hard assets and productive assets respond differently. Stocks, real estate, gold, and Bitcoin tend to rise in nominal terms while the value of the dollar declines.You can't control the system, but you can control your position within it. Understanding how money is created, how debt is managed, and where your capital sits determines whether you keep up or fall behind.

It was a pleasure to welcome Rob Kaplan, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, and former President of the Dallas Fed, to the Alpha Exchange.   We begin with Rob's reflections on his time at the helm of the Dallas Fed from 2015 to 2021, a period spanning rate liftoff, fiscal stimulus, and the COVID crisis. He outlines how his perspective as a business practitioner led him to focus on structural forces—demographics, globalization, and technology—rather than relying solely on cyclical data and economic models.   We then turn to the current environment, where the Fed faces a more complex trade-off between inflation and employment. Rob highlights the limits of monetary policy, emphasizing that broader economic outcomes are increasingly shaped by fiscal policy, regulation, and structural trends beyond the Fed's control.   The conversation also explores changes in financial markets, including the diminished influence of Fed policy on the long end of the yield curve, the growing importance of supply and demand for Treasuries, and the implications of a more leveraged global economy.   We close with a discussion on regulation, private credit, and the impact of geopolitical shocks, as well as how AI-driven disruption is influencing corporate behavior and risk management across industries.   I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Rob Kaplan.

Repo fails spiked to more than $415 billion. Treasury bill prices are jumping. Prices. US bank dealers are using their record government bond holdings at the same time foreigners are deploying huge amounts of their reserves of the same instruments. Treasuries bonds are all over the shadows and it has nothing do with interest rates or the Fed, except the Fed is providing a lot of the data. What does it all mean? The answer -a critical part of it - can be found in Nigeria. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The US labor market posted its largest jobs gain in 15 months, showing remarkable resilience despite escalating Middle East tensions. However, analysts warn that prolonged geopolitical conflicts could create headwinds for future employment growth.Today's Stocks & Topics: NiSource Inc. (NI), Market Wrap, 101 Technical Analysis and Chart Reading, Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), Dividend vs. Value Investment, Foreign vs. Domestic Investments, Employment Growth 2026: Jobs Resilience Amid Geopolitical Crisis, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX), McKesson Corporation (MCK), Treasuries, Intel Corporation (INTC), Enbridge Inc. (ENB).Introducing our Third Annual InvestTalk Market Madness! Join the mayhem before May 18th at 11:59 pm PST for the chance to win $1,500! Fill out your bracket below: https://kppfinancial.com/investtalk-madnessOur Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic: https://claude.ai/invest* Check out Pebl: https://hipebl.ai* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/invest* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

This episode cuts through the marketing fog around “financial advisors,” breaking them into three real categories—brokers, insurance agents, and fiduciary investment advisors—and exposing how incentives, commissions, and murky regulations shape the advice investors receive. Don and Tom highlight the industry's gradual shift away from commissions while warning that titles like “fiduciary” or “CFP” don't guarantee behavior. A listener segment dives into retirement portfolio construction, clarifying misconceptions about bond funds like BND, sequence risk strategies, and the role of safe assets. The episode closes by reframing trendy concepts like “liability matching portfolios” as common-sense planning: keep near-term spending safe and let long-term money grow.0:05 Three types of “financial advisors” and why the title means nothing0:51 Brokers vs RIAs vs insurance agents—what they actually do2:10 Fiduciary confusion and “part-time fiduciaries”3:10 How brokers really operate (transactions, firm-first incentives)6:00 Insurance agents, annuities, and massive hidden commissions7:47 Regulation gaps and misleading “no commission” language8:15 Investment advisors (RIAs) and the fiduciary standard (with caveats)9:42 CFP designation—rigorous, but not a guarantee of behavior10:36 Portfolio reality: “a collection of ideas” vs an actual plan11:50 Industry trend: slow death of commissions and rise of fee-only15:13 Listener: retirement portfolio, glide path, and bond confusion18:15 BND vs Treasuries—risk, diversification, and reality19:59 Sequence risk strategy—lower equities early, increase later21:31 2022 bond drop explained (rates, not failure)23:11 Managing volatility fear—cash buffers vs bond funds24:01 Practical solution: mix of bonds, CDs, and cash28:07 Liability Matching Portfolio (LMP) vs “bucket strategy”31:01 Core takeaway: match short-term needs with safe assets, let rest growQuestions? Comments? Click!

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss how oil prices, tariffs and inflation expectations are raising the bar for rate cuts by the Fed, and markets' response to the new scenario.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today, the outcome of the March FOMC meeting and what it means for our economic and rates outlook for the rest of the year.It's Thursday, March 26th at 8:30am in New York. So, Mike, as we expected, the Fed stayed on hold last week at the FOMC meeting and retained its easing bias. But what do you think the heightened macro uncertainty means for rate cuts this year? Michael Gapen: Well, Matt, I think the answer is caution and probably rate cuts come later than earlier. So, we've changed our view on the back of the FOMC meeting. We previously thought rate cuts would come in June and September. We've slid those back to September and December. The short answer here is I think with the rise in oil prices and at least some renewed upward pressure on headline inflation – it will likely take the Fed longer to conclude that disinflation is occurring. So, I think they need more time, and that obviously means the Fed pushes rate cuts out. Matthew Hornbach: Is there anything about the press conference that struck you as being interesting? Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think the almost near singular focus on inflation. So, after the meeting was over and the press conference was done, we did a little deep dive into the transcript. Because that's what we do as economists who follow the Fed. And there were about 18 questions on inflation or prices. There were only five on labor markets. And if you do, kind of, a word count on inflation- and oil-related terms, that would've popped about 200 answers. If you looked at labor market terms, you would've gotten about 40. So, by a five-to- one ratio, the press conference was dominated by fears or concerns around inflation, inflation expectations, and oil prices. And, you know, whatever message the Fed was trying to send, I think it's hard to send either a neutral or a dovish message when nearly every question was about inflation. So, for me, I think the singular focus on inflation was what surprised me. Matthew Hornbach: And one of the questions that I think market participants, and I'm sure you yourself expected Powell to be asked, was about how the Fed would respond to this supply side energy shock that would raise inflation. And whether or not the Fed would look through that type of supply side effect. How did you interpret his answer?Michael Gapen: His answer was, for me, a little more complicated than I thought it would be. You're right that it is, kind of, traditional monetary policy knowledge or views that you're supposed to look through an increase in headline inflation from oil prices. History says in the U.S., they have little effect on core inflation. Very little second round effects. So, you do, I think, want to come into this event thinking we're primed to look through. But what he said was, ‘Well wait. First of all, what we have to do is get through this tariff pass through to core goods first that I can't even tell you…' I'm paraphrasing here. ‘That I can't even tell you whether or not we want to look through an increase in headline inflation until we get greater clarity that tariff pass through to core goods has ended.' So, this, I think, contributes to our view that it's going to take a longer time until the Fed's comfortable easing, because I think that raises the bar for a conclusion that disinflation is happening. Matthew Hornbach: Right. So, they want to first check the box on being past the tariff-related inflation before they start to consider whether or not they look through the energy-related inflation. And as a part of that question, the reporter, sort of, framed it as: Well, in the context of missing your inflation target for five years – how are you going to think about it? And he layered that into his answer as well. Michael Gapen: They've missed their target for five years? I wasn't aware. Yes. No. That was the additional context, which is to conclude that you can look through increases in headline inflation from oil, one of the conditioning factors there is – that long run inflation expectations remain stable and well anchored around the Fed's 2 percent target. So, short run inflation expectations have moved higher. Just as they did when tariffs were implemented, just as they did during COVID. So yes, there's a multiple kind of step box checking – to use your term – that the Fed needs to go to before it can say, ‘Okay, fine. We think disinflation is in place.' I still think they can get there this year. But obviously that's a later than sooner kind of decision. Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely, and I think in terms of the market response to the FOMC meeting and the press conference, it was that exchange with that reporter that was concerning to investors. And they said, ‘Well, if the Fed first needs to see tariff related inflation pass, and then they're going to consider whether or not to look through energy related inflation in the context of having missed their inflation target for five years.' Market participants said, ‘Well, gosh, that really increases the chance the Fed doesn't ease at all this year.' And so, at the end of that trading day, the market had been pricing about a 50 percent probability that the Fed would deliver its only rate cut in December. And of course, the market has moved since the FOMC meeting. But that was my takeaway, at least. In terms of inflation expectations… Because this is so critical in terms of how the Fed and other central banks around the world – who have slightly different mandates than the Fed does – how do you expect the Fed to think about inflation expectations later this year; when perhaps they're actually considering whether or not to look through the energy price inflation in the context of what happened to longer run inflation expectations in the wake of the pandemic? Michael Gapen: So, my view on this, and at least my takeaway from listening to Powell in prior press conferences – and hearing other FOMC members. I think they feel that coming out of COVID, yes, long run inflation expectations moved up. But they actually moved up for a good reason. I think they felt that long run inflation expectations were a little low going into COVID. So, still generally consistent with 2 percent outcomes. But kind of on the downside. So, a little increase in long run inflation expectations coming out of COVID, I think they were okay with. The risk now will be, COVID has been followed by a tariff price shock and an oil price shock. And in theory, these are supply side shocks that shouldn't result in long run inflation. But you never know, business and consumers may feel differently. So, I think as long as they – they meaning long run inflation expectations – are about where they are, I think the Fed's okay with that. Matthew Hornbach: Right. You did mention that the labor market didn't come up all that much. What's your view on the labor market going into the end of the year? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that; I think it's pretty similar to the way Powell characterized it. Which is: it is abundantly clear that immigration controls have had a strong effect on the labor market and reduced growth in labor supply.It's obvious also, we've had a year now where hiring has come down. So, on one hand the labor market… I'm an economist, so I have to say on the one hand, and on the other hand. On the one hand, the labor market's generally in balance – low labor supply, low labor demand. The unemployment rate has been, you know, broadly unchanged, pretty stable since September. That's what Powell in the past has characterized as “the curious balance.” So yes, the labor market is in balance. But what concerns me and concerns us is – it's not a very dynamic labor market. An economy the size of the U.S., about 360-ish million people or so. We're basically not adding many jobs every month. 20,000 to 30,000, if you, kind of, take a six month or so average is about all we're adding every month. That doesn't feel very robust. Rates of turnover, movement in and out of the labor market have slowed down. And so, I think you can say ‘Yes, the labor market is in a general equilibrium.' But payroll growth close to zero doesn't feel good. This is also why I think it's reasonable to expect rate cuts out of the Fed in the second half of the year. It can come either because disinflation happens. Or higher oil prices can weigh on demand, slow consumer spending, delay business spending plans. If that happens, I think it'd be reasonable to think the unemployment rate may drift up a little. Not a lot, but enough to get the Fed thinking maybe we should give it some more support. Matthew Hornbach: And I think if that's what we end up seeing out of the economy and out of the Fed, then the U.S. Treasury market is set up for a decent run into the end of the year. The market today isn't pricing many rate cuts at all to speak of. And in fact, at one point after the FOMC meeting for a moment in time, we were pricing rate hikes. But I think if we get that outcome for the U.S. economy and for Fed policy, I think investors in U.S. treasuries will be rewarded. And even if they're not rewarded in the way that they might expect or hope – the U.S. Treasury market itself and the correlations that it has delivered vis-a-vis riskier assets like the equity market, suggest that U.S. Treasuries, despite the recent sell off, have been behaving as good hedge securities for broader risky asset portfolios. So, we certainly would expect the U.S. Treasury market to perform quite well in this scenario.And so, with that, Mike, I am afraid I will have to bid you adieu until the next FOMC meeting. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on, Matt. It's great speaking with you. Matthew Hornbach: Likewise, And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The No. 1 investing goal of most Americans is retirement, and a key determinant of happiness in retirement is where you live. Which factors are most important, and where are the places that have those factors? Robert Brokamp and Matt Frankel discuss The Motley Fool's recent “Best Places to Retire” report.Also in this episode:-The S&P 500's single-digit decline so far this year masks wide dispersion of the returns of individual stocks and sectors, with many posting gains or losses exceeding 20%.-A recent study shows that portfolio returns right before retirement have an outsized influence on how much an investor can spend in retirement.-Geopolitical turmoil usually results in a flight to safety that drives down the yields on Treasuries, but the Iran war has had the opposite effect.-Gyms and spas now outnumber stores selling stuff, which is good news because people who are healthier tend to also be wealthier.Host: Robert BrokampGuest: Matt FrankelEngineer: Bart Shannon Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement.We're committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices