Podcasts about Fedspeak

In this episode, Kathy Jones announces that she will be retiring soon and that Collin Martin, Schwab's Head of Fixed Income Research, will take over as co-host of On Investing. Liz Ann and Kathy also discuss the latest bout of volatility caused by future concerns around AI.  Then, Kathy is joined by Claudia Sahm, former economist for the Federal Reserve, former economist for the White House Council of Economic Advisors, and now chief economist for New Century Advisors. Kathy and Claudia discuss the path forward for the Federal Reserve, in terms of setting policy. They cover the state of the labor market, certain issues regarding the quality of the data produced, and the potential impact of AI on labor supply, among other issues. You can keep up with Claudia Sahm her on her Substack newsletter called “Stay-at-Home Macro.” On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.  Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions  (0226-GYWH) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros levemente en verde buscando rebotar tras el selloff del lunes; tasas casi planas y agenda cargada con Confianza del Consumidor y “Fedspeak”. El mercado mastica aranceles (10% con ruido de 15%), la demanda de $FDX, y gira el foco a earnings de $HD y, sobre todo, $NVDA. Titulares de IA: $META firma un mega acuerdo de cómputo con $AMD, $INTC entra a SambaNova y $IBM sale a defender el “moat” del mainframe.

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros ligeramente a la baja: $SPX -0.15%, $US100 -0.24% y $INDU -0.14% antes de una jornada cargada de datos y “Fedspeak”. $EBAY sube fuerte tras Q4 sólido, recompra por $2 Billones, dividendo al alza y compra de Depop a $ETSY por $1.2 Billones. Biotec en foco: $MRK reporta datos positivos fase 3 en RSV pediátrico y $MRNA rebota tras aceptación de la FDA para revisar su vacuna mRNA-1010.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, though stocks ended off best levels. Stocks rebounded on the back of tech outperformance. Nothing on the US economic calendar today, but a bit of Fedspeak

Send us a textCommodities in the spotlight; gold and silver print fresh all-time highs. Oil climb stops, as Trump “likes the price of oil at $53 a barrel”. Dollar rally pauses; focus shifts to a busy Fedspeak and data calendar. Japanese bond yields surge, dollar/yen reaches intervention zone.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textVenezuela events weigh on oil but boost gold. Dollar starts the new year in good mood, cryptos show signs of life. ISM manufacturing survey kicks off a data-busy week. Fedspeak to intensify ahead of Friday's NFP release.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending not far from best levels. It was a fairly quiet session from a headline perspective, but the momentum from late last week carried over into a broad risk-on day. A bit of Fedspeak today in macro news.

Send us a textRisk markets are still trying to find their footing after the Fed rate cut. Crypto pressure lingers while gold climbs towards its all-time high. Dollar under pressure; spotlight on incoming US data and Fedspeak. Anticipated BoJ rate hike stands out this week; hawkish rhetoric on the cards? Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

US equities built on the prior Friday's bounce and rallied sharply over the final week of November, ending higher for a fifth straight session. December rate cut odds pushed above 80% (after briefly falling below 30% in the prior week) as Waller and Daley followed Williams from late last week with dovish leaning Fedspeak. Claims data continued to offer a more optimistic assessment of the labor market amid continued concerns about incremental softening.

Send us a textThe lack of November data and light Fedspeak could challenge risk appetite. Holiday-shortened week comes into play as liquidity dries up. Muted movement in FX space; dollar-yen rally has paused. Goldand oil await developments on the Ukraine-Russia front.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textRisk assets sell off on AI valuation concerns and hawkish Fedspeak. US data in focus amidst a holiday-shortened week with low liquidity available. Dollar weakness hinges on improved risk appetite and weak data releases. Intervention risk heightens for yen; pound traders await Wednesday's Budget.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Asian equities were mixed, while European equity markets are weaker. US equity futures are firmer with S&P up 0.5%. Bonds are firmer. US 10-year yield down 2 bps at 4.1%. Dollar firmer versus euro, Japanese yen and Aussie. Sterling little changed. Oil down, gold lower. Industrial metals weaker. Sentiment is still somewhat negative in Europe after Friday's selloff on rising uncertainty in AI complex and rotation out of high-multiple equities. In addition, hawkish Fedspeak keeping December rate cut at 50/50 odds. Markets have also been assessing rising friction between Japan and China over PM Takaichi's comments on Taiwan. Beijing urged citizens to avoid travel and study in Japan. China's Coast Guard also sent armed ships through disputed waters near Senkaku Islands. Companies Mentioned: Goldman Sachs, Affinity Equity Partners, Airbus SE, Pratt & Whitney, Flydubai, Grindr

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending a bit off worst levels. There were a few moving pieces as the market waits for a number of higher-profile events this week, including Nvidia NVDA earnings, retail earnings, FOMC minutes, a barrage of Fedspeak, and September's NFP and flash PMIs. In macro news, the Empire State manufacturing survey for November posted a surprise increase to 18.7, its highest since last November.

US equities were lower in Thursday trading as stocks ended just a bit off worst levels. Momentum unwind the big story today. No one specific factor behind the move, though fits with recent pickup in AI sentiment volatility. Higher rate backdrop also in focus with recent bout of hawkish Fedspeak and dampened December easing odds

Send us a textUS shutdown ends, investors prepare for a flurry of delayed data. Fedspeak remains hawkish; US administration craves rate cuts. Euro/dollar climbs to 1.1600; cable and dollar/yen stabilize. Equities and gold rally, but risk sentiment appears fragile.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday afternoon trading, and off best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing up 68bps and 6bps respectively, while the Nasdaq closed down 26bps, in another session characterized by better breadth. AI sentiment helped by positive AMD analyst day takeaways and Foxconn earnings, though a number of big tech names were soft. Fedspeak for the day included Atlanta's Bostic noting he favors keeping funds rate steady until clearer evidence inflation moving lower, and Miran again noted his preference for a 50 bp December cut. Treasury's $42B 10-year note auction tailed by 0.6 bp with the lowest bid-to-cover since August of 2024.

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending near session highs. The bigger story for the market today seems to be the rebound in AI sentiment after last week's drawdown. Nothing on the US economic calendar today, but a busy day of Fedspeak.

Send us a textRisk appetite has not fully enjoyed the treats of a Fed rate cut, strong earnings and trade peace. Fedspeak, the US Supreme Court and US data could challenge the dollar's current strength. Aussie and pound are on divergent paths as respective central banks meet next week. The battle for $4,000 gold persists.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Major US indices posted solid gains this week, rebounding from last Friday's session that saw the worst S&P daily performance since April amid flaring US-China trade tensions. Signs of US-China de-escalation boosted markets Monday, and by Friday Trump said his proposal for 100% tariffs on China was not sustainable. A large volume of Fedspeak had little impact on market expectations for two 25 bp cuts through year-end.

Send us a textRisk markets remain jittery despite the dovish Fedspeak. Dollar loses ground; yen jumps, ignoring political unrest. Tariffs shenanigans may persist; little progress on the US shutdown. Gold rally remains supported; oil market sends alarming signals.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textRisk markets remain under pressure, seeking fresh bullish catalysts. USshutdown and renewed trade tensions cloud the outlook. Fedspeak andcorporate earnings could lift investors' spirits. Gold correction pauses;dollar fails to rally significantly.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textUS shutdown and developments in Japan and France fuel a muted risk-off reaction. Gold and dollar rally, while euro and yen are under pressure; crypto rally pauses. US equities react calmly, supported by continued AI-related investments, Focus today on Fedspeak and Fed minutes.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

US equities finished mostly higher in quiet Monday trading. It was a very uneventful session with the path of least resistance still tilted to the upside amid the catalyst vacuum. It's quiet on the economic calendar this week, but busy in terms of Fedspeak.

Send us a textRisk sentiment improves; equities and cryptos in better mood. Dollar retreats after solid week, focus shifts to Fedspeak and upcoming data. A US government shutdown is likely, Trump to meet Congressional leaders today. Gold climb continues, posts another all-time high; oil rally pauses.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textRisk sentiment weakens, as both equities and cryptos underperform. Dollar experiences a strong bid as focus shifts to Fedspeak and data prints. At least seven Fed speakers on the wires today; hawkish remarks carry weight. Gold retreats from all-time high, oil rally pauses.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

US equities were higher in Monday trading as stocks ended near best levels. Stocks extended recent gains in a quiet session as the path of least resistance remains to the upside, tabbed today to the latest pickup in M&A activity. No major economic data releases were scheduled for this morning, but it was busy in terms of Fedspeak.

Send us a textData and Fedspeak take center stage this week. US government shutdownis approaching; data releases could be affected. US equities gained lastweek, but under pressure today. Gold posts new all-time high; cryptodecline carries momentum.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textDovish Fedspeak and soft PCE data may dent the dollar's recovery. US-China negotiations continue, as yuan's appreciation lingers. Eurozone PMIs could cement the ECB pause; SNB might threaten with negative rates.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

US equity futures are slightly softer. Asia ended mixed, and European markets are lower. Markets remain focused on Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, with September rate cut odds falling below 80% after hawkish Fedspeak and stronger US flash PMIs. July FOMC minutes leaned hawkish, though the impact was muted by subsequent labor data; US flash PMIs showed the strongest manufacturing and services readings in over a year, but input prices rose sharply, adding stagflation concerns alongside the weaker Philadelphia Fed survey; Markets continue to track AI-driven equity pullbacks and tariff headlines, with investors bracing for possible US chip tariff announcements.Companies Mentioned: Nvidia, Boeing, Tesla

The heavy mantle of responsibility on the next Fed leader will guide him to set monetary policy independent of President Trump's influence, and should the Fed chair fail to make a convincing case for a desired course of policy, the 11 other members of the rate-setting FOMC would vote according to their own judgement, former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester tells Fedspeak.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 104bps, 32bps, and 14bps respectively. The Equal-weight S&P posted its best day since late May amid very positive breadth. Small-caps had another standout session. Fedspeak included Chicago's Goolsbee saying he doesn't like precommitting on rate moves, and Bostic saying one rate cut this year still appropriate.

US equity futures are slightly weaker, Asia ended mixed, with Japan rallying strongly while most other major markets fell. European markets are mostly firmer. Focus remains on trade developments as Trump's global tariffs take effect, with major trading partners including India and Switzerland continuing to lobby for exemptions. Japan's Akazawa said the US will clarify that the 15% tariff will not stack on top of existing levies and that a revised auto tariff order will be signed. Commerce Secretary Lutnick signaled a likely 90-day extension of the China tariff deadline. Reports said the US has imposed tariffs on certain gold bars traded on Comex, helping push gold to record highs. In US politics, recent Fedspeak has turned more dovish, with Waller emerging as the leading candidate to replace Powell, and Trump nominating CEA Chair Miren to the Fed Board.Companies Mentioned: Tesla, Intel, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, CK Hutchison Holdings, BlackRock

US equities finished mixed in Monday trading, ending near worst levels after giving back much of the day's gains in the last hour of trading. It was a fairly uneventful session with no big directional drivers in play, with a lower yield backdrop and favorable earnings takeaways among the highlights today. There's nothing on the US economic calendar for either Monday or Tuesday, and no Fedspeak this week with the blackout period into the July FOMC meeting

In the latest Macro MATTers podcast, Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) discuss recent events moving markets. In this episode, they discuss the June jobs report, takeaways from the June FOMC meeting and subsequent Fedspeak, and a variety of other topics including SLR reform, foreign purchases of US Treasuries, and developments related to trade and fiscal policy. (Note: This podcast was recorded on July 3rd just after the release of the June employment report.)

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, as stocks ended near best levels. Much of the focus in the market continues to revolve around the political pressure on the Fed to cut rates, and the potential for Trump to name a Powell successor as early as this summer. Initial jobless claims down 10K w/w to 236K, better than expected and lowest since mid-May. Lots of Fedspeak today, with Chicago's Goolsbee, Governor Barr, Richmond's Barkin, San Francisco's Daly, and Boston's Collins all speaking.

US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading. Stocks shook off earlier weakness that was initially driven by Moody's cutting US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday. Nothing on the US economic calendar today, but a lot of Fedspeak.

US equities were mostly lower following a very volatile Monday afternoon session, though stocks finished well off their worst levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 closing down 91bps and 23bps, while the Nasdaq finished up 10bps. White House officials continue to offer mixed messaging on trade. A bit of Fedspeak from Governor Kugler, who said coming tariffs will be consequential and the Fed is already seeing some signs of higher prices. Apple will reportedly send more iPhones to the US from India to avoid steeper China tariffs.

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber discussed the effect of tariff talk on markets. Thursday morning, President Trump posted on social media that his proposed tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada will go into effect on March 4 -- and that China will be charged an additional 10% tariff on that same date. The AI trade also in the spotlight: Nvidia posted better-than-expected Q4 results, while Salesforce reported a Q4 revenue miss and issued weaker-than-expected guidance. Also in focus: "Fedspeak" on inflation by Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, earnings movers including Snowflake, eBay, Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount.Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

US equity futures are slightly lower after a mixed close on Monday. European markets are trading weaker. Asian equities ended mixed, supported by gains in Japan and South Korea but pressured by China's economic uncertainty. Markets are digesting mixed global equity performance as tech optimism drives gains in the US and Asia, while Europe trades lower amid cautious sentiment. Focus remains on US equity strength led by AI developments, with Nvidia's CEO Huang CES keynote unveiling new GPUs under the Blackwell architecture. Higher US yields, driven by slower Fed rate cut expectations and reinforced by hawkish Fedspeak. Tariff discussions are back in focus after conflicting reports about Trump's revised import strategy.Companies Mentioned: NXP Semiconductors, Phillips 66, Apple

Did today's strong jobs report put the Fed's December pause on pause? It depends on who you ask. We'll round up the latest Fedspeak and look at how to position into year-end. Plus, one economist says AI is exacerbating the “hiring doom loop.” He'll join us to explain and give us the latest remote-work trends. And it's OpenAI's second day of “Shipmas”, we have their latest offering and a look at Trump's pick for the White House AI and Crypto Czar.

US equity futures are slightly lower, while European markets are trading higher, led by gains in France. Asian markets ended mostly higher. Cryptocurrencies are surging, with Bitcoin crossing $100,000. U.S. markets are in a holding pattern ahead of Friday's November Non-Farm Payrolls report. Dovish-leaning Fedspeak was also in focus. France is leading gains despite political instability, as PM Barnier's government was ousted in a no-confidence vote as expected, with limited spillover effects observed so far. Regional focus remains on South Korea's political turmoil, where Parliament has initiated an impeachment motion against President Yoon for a vote on Saturday, though the ruling party is expected to oppose it. Companies Mentioned: Cousins Properties, Athena Technology Acquisition Corp. II, Petrobras

US equities closed higher in uneventful Friday trading, ending a bit off best levels in a short session after the US Thanksgiving Day holiday. There were some minor easing of tariff worries after Wednesday headlines that Trump and Mexico's President Sheinbaum had productive conversations on cross-border flows. The Market processed limited newsflow today with nothing on the economic calendar and no scheduled Fedspeak.

Major US equity indices were higher this week, bouncing after last week's losses though the S&P and Nasdaq remain below post-election record closes. There was a big focus on corporate results this week, largely focused on the long-awaited Nvidia report. It was also another fairly busy week of Fedspeak, with policymakers continuing to stress patience and data dependence, with some members continuing to note that the Fed won't prejudge its December rate decision.

US equities closed higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, hovering around the unchanged mark after a bit of morning strength. As expected, it was a quiet session given the federal holiday, sparse earnings, no economic releases, and quiet Fedspeak – all factors which will ramp up later this week. Nevertheless, the path of least resistance remains higher coming out of last week's election.

US equities were mostly lower this week. The biggest focus was on another backup in yields, extending this month's sizable jump with the 2Y back above 4%, and 10Y back to July levels (before the Fed cut by 50bp in August). In a busy week of Fedspeak before next week's blackout period ahead of the November FOMC meeting, Fed officials continued to argue that they see further rate cuts ahead, but there are some questions around the pace.

US equities finished lower in uneventful Monday trading. This week starts the peak of Q3 earnings with 112 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. Nothing on the economic calendar today and a slow data week ahead, though a bit of Fedspeak.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, ending just off their best levels at the close, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 30bps, 97bps, and 145bps respectively. Busy day of Fedspeak. Today's Treasury auction of $58B in 3Y notes tailed, with softer bid-to-cover and weak foreign demand. Hurricane Milton rapidly intensifying and on a direct course for central Florida. China's economic planning body announced no new stimulus. Israel considering a retaliatory strike against Iranian energy infrastructure.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, but ended off worst levels. Market trading risk off to start October/Q4 with latest ramp in Middle East tensions the go-to excuse. JOLTS job openings came in firmer than expected. ISM manufacturing a bit weaker than expected at 47.2 in September. Nothing incremental in Fedspeak.

US equities were mostly higher in fairly quiet, rangebound Monday trading. September flash manufacturing PMI slipped to 47 from 47.9 in August, below the 48.5 consensus. A busy week of Fedspeak lies ahead, with Bowman, Kugler, Williams, Barr, Cook and Collins all on tap.

While the electoral impact of last week's US presidential debate is unclear, our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research offers two guiding principles to navigate the markets during the election cycle.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about takeaways from the US presidential campaign debate. It's Wednesday, September 18th at 10:30am in New York. Last week, Vice President Harris and Former President Trump met in Philadelphia for debate. Investor interest was high, and understandably so. As our Chief Economist Seth Carpenter has previously highlighted in his research, visibility remains low when it comes to the outlook for the US in 2025. That's because the election could put the country on policy paths that take economic growth in different directions. And of course, the last presidential debate in June led to President Biden's withdrawal, changing the race dramatically. So, any election-related event that could provide new information about the probability of different outcomes and the resulting policies is worth watching. But, as investors well know from tracking data releases, earnings, Fedspeak, and more, potential catalysts often remain just that – potential. For the moment, we're putting last week's debate in that category. Take its impact on outcome probabilities. It could move polls, but perhaps not enough for investors to view one candidate as the clear favorite. For weeks, the polls have been signaling an extremely tight race, with only a small pool of undecided voters. While debates in past campaigns have modestly strengthened a candidate's standing in the polls, in this race any lead would likely remain within the margin of error. On policy, again we don't think the debate taught us anything new. Candidates typically use these widely watched events to influence voters' perceptions. The details of policies and their impact tend to take a back seat to assertions of principles and critiques of their opponents. This is what we saw last week. So if the debate provided little new information about the impact of the election on markets, what guidance can we offer? Here again we repeat two of our guiding principles for this election cycle. First, between now and Election Day, expect the economic cycle to drive markets. The high level of uncertainty and the lack of precedent for market behavior in the run-up to past elections suggest sticking to the cross-asset playbook in our mid-year outlook. In general, we prefer bonds to equities. While our economists continue to expect the US to avoid a recession, growth is slowing. That bodes better for bonds, where yields may track lower as the Fed eases, as opposed to equities, where earnings may be challenged as growth slows. Second, lean into market moves that election outcomes could accelerate. For several months, Matt Hornbach and our interest rate strategy team have been calling for a steeper yield curve, driven by lower yields in shorter-maturity bonds. They have been guided by our economists' steadfast view that the Fed would start cutting rates this year as inflation eases. We doubt that policies in Democratic win scenarios would change this trend, and a Republican win could accelerate it in the near term, as higher tariffs would imply pressure on growth and possibly further Fed dovishness. Pricing that path could steepen the yield curve further. And of course, there's still several weeks before the election to get smart on the economic and market impacts of a range of election outcomes. We'll keep you updated here. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.