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Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 301 on FOMC day. In this episode, Dr. Shilling warns that the economy is cooling with weakening labor markets and stagnant job creation, yet security markets continue to rise without reflecting this underlying weakness. Despite the government shutdown limiting official data, private sector information reveals businesses are cautious about demand and inflation, while consumers face limited financial slack due to heavy student loan and credit card borrowing. Shilling believes the Fed is cutting rates because they fear a recession is on the horizon, and he cautions that "we're probably gonna wake up one of these days and find that things are really a lot weaker than we expect" - at which point markets could deteriorate quickly. He also expresses concern about the "debt bomb" - the massive accumulation of government debt now exceeding $38 trillion with no logical endpoint in sight. However, Shilling remains impressed by the adaptability and resilience of the US economy, noting how it has successfully adjusted to disruptions like tariffs that many predicted would be disastrous.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction & welcome0:48 - Big picture macro view: economy appears to be cooling1:30 - Government shutdown: private data filling the holes2:00 - Weakening labor markets: limited new hiring2:45 - Businesses cautious about demand and inflation3:17 - Recession concerns: won't know until well into it3:45 - Security markets not reflecting economic weakness4:03 - Fed Chair Powell presser context (October 29th FOMC meeting)4:32 - Why markets are overly focused on Fed actions5:30 - Fed's tightrope walk: keeping economy above water6:25 - Are rate cuts signaling recession fears?6:34 - Fed concerned about softening labor markets7:20 - Finding hidden vulnerabilities during data blackout7:51 - Labor market concerns: limited consumer slack8:20 - Heavy borrowing: student loans and credit cards27:24 - US fiscal picture: debt north of $38 trillion27:45 - The debt bomb concept explained28:45 - Massive global debt expansion concerns29:49 - What happens when debt reaches its limit?30:23 - What's keeping Dr. Shilling up at night31:15 - Lack of concern about debt accumulation32:00 - What makes him hopeful: US economy's strength and adaptability32:46 - Economic adaptability to disruptions33:11 - Tariffs discussion: six months later perspective33:46 - How economies adapt to tariff disruptions35:03 - Where to find Dr. Shilling's work35:25 - Parting thoughts: avoiding fads of the moment36:37 - Closing remarksAccess Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).
Today, we look at the US and China clearly wanting to de-escalate trade tensions as both sides made concessions, with a one-year time horizon for some of the most important ones. Otherwise, we cover the extreme narrowness of the market's recent advance as most stocks have had a lousy couple of days on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thoughts on Fed Chair Powell's hawkish press conference and an unbelievably dovish Bank of Japan governor Kuroda press conference, many single stock stories, must reads and listens and more are also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
The Federal Reserve spoke with an almost British accent yesterday, cutting rates a quarter point with a Bank of England-like three-way vote split. Fed Chair Powell signaled that a December cut was not inevitable. While a majority clearly favored insuring against the risks of a brittle US labor market today, there are fears about future inflation pressures and the lack of credible US economic data.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the October 2024 FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's surprisingly hawkish stance despite mounting evidence of labor market weakness. Danielle questions whether the Fed is ignoring its dual mandate as major companies like UPS, GM, Meta, and Amazon announce tens of thousands of layoffs. She discusses the dissents from both Stephen Miran and Jeffrey Schmid, explores potential political dynamics at play within the Fed, and examines growing stress in private credit markets, commercial real estate, and rising corporate bankruptcies. Danielle also highlights alternative labor market indicators like state-by-state data and WARN notices that paint a concerning picture of the economy, while emphasizing the importance of compassion for struggling American families heading into the holiday season.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis show is brought to you by Monetary Metals.Learn more about Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/07352116550:00 Introduction & episode 300 celebration1:37 FOMC meeting reaction - Powell's hawkish tone2:33 What's really going on at the Fed?3:48 The two dissenters - Miran & Schmid5:39 Market reaction to Powell's comments6:17 The Fed's labor mandate - are they ignoring it?7:16 Major layoff announcements - UPS, GM, Meta, Amazon8:00 Is the Fed sticking it to the administration?9:55 Fed balance sheet & mortgage-backed securities16:19 Private credit market concerns27:04 Corporate bankruptcies rising28:18 October bankruptcy data - highest post-pandemic29:22 Interest rate impact on corporate refinancing30:05 What would you ask Powell? State-by-state data31:29 WARN notices & real labor market data32:19 Layoffs aren't free - cost to companies33:10 ADP weekly data as labor market indicator33:26 Message of compassion during the holidays34:29 Closing & where to find Danielle's work35:09 QI Research & Daily Feather newsletter
Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI) says the Fed's latest rate cut didn't come as a surprise, but added that Jerome Powell's commentary about taking "December off the table" did. She notes the increase in dissent opinions on the rate adjustments, with voices on both sides of the inflation date. Danielle discusses the Fed's dual mandate, especially the labor market weakening, adding that Fed Chair Powell is not listening to the concerns from U.S. workers. Danielle later weighs in on the ongoing search for the Fed Chair replacement.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Interest rates get cut again but it's what Fed Chair Powell said afterwards that moved the Market
Market Reactions to Fed Announcement & The Rise of 401(k) Plans In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and the end of the quantitative tightening program. Despite an initial market gain, comments from Fed Chair Powell about a December rate cut not being guaranteed led to a sell-off. Szytel provides insights into the likelihood of future rate cuts and the current state of economic data amid a government shutdown. Additionally, Sitel addresses a viewer question about the relationship between the rise of 401(k) plans and the popularity of index funds, explaining that while they are related, the primary reason for the shift from pension plans to 401(k) plans is corporate governance. The episode closes with an overview of the day's market volatility and encourages listeners to continue submitting questions. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:11 Fed's Interest Rate Cut and Market Reaction 02:04 Economic Data and Fed's Decision Details 02:52 The Rise of 401(k) Plans and Index Funds 05:07 Conclusion and Upcoming Updates Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point for the second time this year, but Fed Chair Powell says another rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion given concerns about the job market. We hear from the Fed chair and talk with Reuters Federal Reserve Correspondent Howard Schneider (5); Federal government shutdown is now at Day 29. Senate Democrats try and fail over Republican objections to pass a bill to extend funding only for the federal food aid program SNAP; Senate votes with the support of five Republicans to overturn President Donald Trump's emergency declaration to impose 50 percent tariffs on Brazil; President Trump promotes U.S. & Southeast Asia investment and development at a CEO's luncheon at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea and previews his meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping; Food & Drug Administration says it is looking to reduce the number of human clinical studies required for approval of certain biosimilar drugs to speed approval and reduce costs; Senate Veterans Affairs Committee holds a hearing on allegations of fraud in the VA disability benefits program; Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Judiciary Committee chair, talks about the news that many more Republicans were targeted in the Biden Justice Department's "Arctic Frost" investigation after the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates a quarter point. The absence of credible short-term data since the last Fed meeting means policymakers cannot follow Fed Chair Powell's “data dependency” mantra and must instead focus on economic trends. Market interest will be focused on the spectrum of views, the tone of the press conference, and (inevitably) speculation about Powell's successor.
APAC stocks were predominantly in the green following the tech strength on Wall St, most indices extended to record highs.US President Trump said he had a great trip so far and expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China. China said to have made soybean purchase.European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.1% after the cash index closed with losses of 0.1% on Tuesday.USD is broadly firmer vs. peers with GBP still under pressure. AUD leads as hot Aus CPI dashes hopes of an RBA rate cut next month.Israeli planes launched strikes on Gaza City. US VP Vance said he thinks peace in the Middle East will hold despite skirmishes.Looking ahead, highlights US Pending Homes (Sep), FOMC & BoC Policy Announcements, US President Trump to meet South Korea's Leader, Fed Chair Powell & BoC's Macklem, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Earnings from Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Google, Starbucks, eBay, Verizon, Boeing, CVS, Caterpillar, Phillips 66, UBS, BASF, Mercedes-Benz, Deutsche Bank, Equinor, Santander, GSK & Airbus.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
US President Trump said the meeting with Chinese President Xi will be three hours long before returning back to the US; says things will work out very well with Xi on Thursday.European and US equity futures are mixed; NQ outperforms, boosted by NVIDIA as it nears USD 5tln market cap.USD is firmer in the run-up to FOMC, AUD leads as hot CPI dashes RBA rate cut hopes.Fixed income contained awaiting the FOMC, with a mild bearish bias potentially stemming from positive trade updates.XAU returns back above USD 4k/oz, LME Copper reaches new ATHs amid positive US-China trade optimismUS Pending Homes (Sep), FOMC & BoC Policy Announcements; US President Trump to meet South Korea's Leader, Speakers including Fed Chair Powell & BoC's Macklem, Supply from the US.Earnings from Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, ServiceNow, Starbucks, eBay, Verizon, Boeing, CVS, Caterpillar, Etsy, Centene, Phillips 66.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Bitcoin dropped to $106K after a sudden Friday sell-off, triggering panic across crypto markets—but Swan's team remained calm, stressing the long-term thesis is unchanged.John Haar and Isaiah noted that Bitcoin fell just 10% while altcoins crashed 50–90%, underscoring Bitcoin's liquidity and resilience.The team compared the pullback to past cycles, arguing this is not a cycle top but typical mid-bull market volatility.Discussion on Fed Chair Powell signaling an end to QT and potential rate cuts—seen as a tailwind for Bitcoin as monetary easing returns.John highlighted data showing Bitcoin rose 750% during the Fed's tightening cycle, disproving the myth that Bitcoin only thrives under easy money.A deep dive into the Fed's balance sheet showed that long-dated Treasury holdings have never decreased since 2008, signaling systemic dependence on debt monetization.Chamath Palihapitiya's claim that quantum computing could break Bitcoin in 2–5 years was debunked—experts and developers agree it's decades away and Bitcoin can adapt.The team explored how AI could reshape the economy, potentially displacing workers and pushing governments toward UBI—but also creating new industries and efficiencies.Brady and John debated whether UBI could be socially beneficial or harmful; both agreed Bitcoin offers protection in any fiat debasement scenario.The show wrapped with reactions to Larry Fink's 60 Minutes appearance comparing Bitcoin to gold and Elon Musk's recent positive Bitcoin comments. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.
Michael Reinking, Senior Market Strategist at the NYSE, recaps a volatile week as China's new export controls and President Trump's tariff threats triggered the biggest U.S. selloff since April. Markets and crypto plunged before rebounding on softer rhetoric from Washington and strong bank earnings kicking off the season. Fed Chair Powell's signal of further rate cuts fueled a rally in cyclicals and financials. Regional banks later slid on fresh credit concerns. Reinking highlights China's upcoming economic data, earnings acceleration, and ongoing shutdown talks as next week's key drivers.
The ongoing government shutdown delayed updates of the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, weekly unemployment claims, and retail sales. Still, there was plenty to cover from this week, including the potential impact on the banking sector amid emerging credit concerns, the strength and state of the consumer, recent earnings reports, a dip in oil prices, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for the remainder of the year and in 2026 once a new Chair is selected. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income 01:35 – The National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index for the month of September fell two points to 98.8, but remains above the historical average. Conversely, the Uncertainty Index rose to 100 – the fourth highest level in 51 years.02:21 – The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report showed little change in overall economic activity, with some districts reporting slight to modest growth and others noting slight softening.04:20 – The earnings reports that have been released thus far for the third quarter paint a favorable picture of a robust stock market, despite signs of softening consumer spending and an uptick in volatility and uncertainty.11:57 – Investors moved toward safe haven assets amid some overall economic softening and news of emerging credit risk.12:38 – Fed Chair Powell's recent comments point towards a move away from quantitative tightening, an end to the balance sheet runoff in the next few months, and likely two more rate cuts in 2025.15:31 – As the government shutdown continues to fuel confusion, volatility, and uncertainty, our advice to investors is to maintain a long-term perspective with a diversified portfolio and avoiding rash decisions based on dramatic news and short-term fluctuations. Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: What Does MAHA Mean for Healthcare and Consumer Staples Companies? Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn
On this episode of Simply Money presented by Allworth Financial, Bob and Brian break down what Fed Chair Powell's latest comments mean for rates, inflation, and your money. They also dig into the 2026 tax brackets, smart Roth conversion moves, and the truth about “tax-free” Social Security.Plus, the guys answer listener questions on trusts, risk, and estate updates. Finally, Brian wraps with key year-end tax strategies to protect your wealth.
APAC stocks were mostly higher as expectations for incoming Fed rate cuts helped the region shrug off the mixed lead from Wall St.Fed Chair Powell said downside risks to the US jobs market have risen and rising risks to the job market justified a September interest rate cut.US President Trump announced he is considering terminating business with China regarding cooking oil.European equity futures indicate a firm cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 future up 1.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.DXY is softer and now basically flat on the week, AUD is attempting to atone for recent losses, EUR/USD sits on a 1.16 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Industrial Production (Aug), NY Fed Manufacturing (Oct), Cleveland Fed CPI (Sep), US Military Pay Date, Fed Beige Book, (Suspended Releases: US CPI), BoE's Ramsden & Breeden, ECB's de Guindos, Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Miran, Bostic, Waller & Schmid, RBA's Bullock & Kent, Supply from UK & Germany.Earnings from ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Dollar Tree & Progressive.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Markets split on Tuesday as US-China tensions flared again and Fed Chair Powell hinted at more rate cuts ahead. Big banks kicked off earnings season while tech stocks struggled under renewed pressure.➡️ Just a quick reminder, Capital Markets Quickie is brought to you by AMF Capital AG, Asset Management Frankfurt, your leading provider for individual investment solutions and mutual funds. Visit https://www.amf-capital.de for more information.>>> Make sure to check out my newsletter "Cela's Weekly Insights":https://endritcela.com/newsletter/>>> You can subscribe here to our YouTube Channel “MVP – Main Value Partners”:https://www.youtube.com/@MainValue>>> Visit my website for more information:http://www.endritcela.com>>> Follow me on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/endrit-cela/>>> Follow me on Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/endritcela_official/Disclaimer for "Capital Markets Quickie" Podcast:The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are based on information available at the time of recording and reflect the personal perspectives of the host. They do not represent the viewpoints of any other projects, cooperations, or affiliations the host may be involved in. "Capital Markets Quickie" does not offer financial advice. Before making any financial decisions, please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor.
China's government announced export controls on rare earth materials.Hamas-Israel agreed to a Gaza ceasefire deal; conflicting reports whether the ceasefire is in effect, though the Israel Foreign Minister confirmed that it is.European bourses are mixed whilst US equity futures trade around the unchanged mark.DXY grinds higher amid continued NZD losses and a heavy GBP.OATs outperform as the odds of fresh legislative elections diminish, USTs await Fed speak.Crude benchmarks slightly higher despite Gaza ceasefire deal, XAU takes a breather.Looking ahead, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, ECB Minutes (Sep), Eurogroup Meeting, Banxico Minutes, Speakers including, ECB's Lane, BoC's Rogers, Fed Chair Powell, Bowman, Barr & Kashkari, Supply from US, Earnings from Delta Air & PepsiCo.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
APAC stocks were predominantly higher following the tech rebound stateside, where the S&P 500 and NDX notched fresh record levels.Participants were encouraged by an agreement on the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire deal, and with Chinese traders returning from the National Day Golden Week holiday.Israel's Channel 14 reported the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will come into effect today at 12:00 noon (10:00BST/05:00EDT), according to Al Arabiya.FOMC Minutes stated participants judged that a cautious approach to future policy was warranted, while a majority of participants emphasised upside risk to their outlooks for inflation – no notable reaction seen in markets on the release.China's government announced export controls on rare earth materials.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, (Suspended: US Jobless Claims (4 Oct w/e), Wholesale Sales (Aug), ECB Minutes (Sep), Eurogroup Meeting, Banxico Minutes, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB's Lane, BoC's Rogers, Fed Chair Powell, Bowman, Barr & Kashkari, Supply from US, Earnings from Delta Air & PepsiCoRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Kieran Witthuhn from Anchor on the gold and PGM surge — and how they're positioning portfolios at these levels. Ben Meyer from Prescient on 25 years of ETF growth in South Africa, though still a small slice of the CIS market. Simon on Fed Chair Powell's warning that stocks are 'fairly highly valued'.
Eric Criscuolo, Market Strategist at the NYSE, recaps a week where stocks retreated from record highs after triple-witching and Fed Chair Powell's valuation comments. Energy outperformed on rising oil, while tech and small caps lagged. Stronger economic data tempered Fed cut expectations. Criscuolo highlights jobs reports, ISM data, and a potential government shutdown as next week's key drivers.
US markets slipped Wednesday after cautious comments from Fed Chair Powell on interest rates. Housing data and tech stock moves added fresh storylines.➡️ Just a quick reminder, Capital Markets Quickie is brought to you by AMF Capital AG, Asset Management Frankfurt, your leading provider for individual investment solutions and mutual funds. Visit https://www.amf-capital.de for more information.>>> Make sure to check out my newsletter "Cela's Weekly Insights":https://endritcela.com/newsletter/>>> You can subscribe here to our YouTube Channel “MVP – Main Value Partners”:https://www.youtube.com/@MainValue>>> Visit my website for more information:http://www.endritcela.com>>> Follow me on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/endrit-cela/>>> Follow me on Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/endritcela_official/Disclaimer for "Capital Markets Quickie" Podcast:The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are based on information available at the time of recording and reflect the personal perspectives of the host. They do not represent the viewpoints of any other projects, cooperations, or affiliations the host may be involved in. "Capital Markets Quickie" does not offer financial advice. Before making any financial decisions, please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor.
Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber drilled down on the AI trade cooling off as the S&P 500 snapped a 3-day win streak. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra joined the program exclusively to discuss better-than-expected quarterly results and guidance driven by AI demand. Arm Holdings CEO Rene Haas appeared on the show and spoke about the chip designer's role in the Stargate partnership with OpenAI, Nvidia, SoftBank, Oracle and other companies — the project announcing plans to open five new data centers. Also in focus: Fed Chair Powell on stocks, Jimmy Kimmel back on the air at ABC. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The Chrisman Commentary Daily Mortgage News Podcast delivers timely insights for mortgage lenders, loan officers, capital markets professionals, and anyone curious about the mortgage and housing industry. Hosted by industry expert Robbie Chrisman, each weekday episode breaks down mortgage rates, lending news, housing market trends, capital markets activity, and regulatory updates with insightful analysis, expert perspectives, and conversations with top professionals from across the mortgage industry. Stay informed, gain actionable insights, and keep up with developments in mortgage banking and housing finance. Learn more at www.chrismancommentary.com.In today's episode, we go through what MBA and Fannie Mae are predicting for interest rates and volumes. Plus, Robbie sits down with BeSmartee's Tim Nguyen for a discussion on how improving the start-to-submit application journey is a major, often overlooked opportunity for lenders to drive significant revenue, reduce abandonment caused by poor tools or processes, and create a true competitive edge. And maybe Fed Chair Powell likes to reveal nothing.This week's podcasts are sponsored by BeSmartee, the most innovative mortgage technology platform for banks, credit unions, and non-bank mortgage lenders.
S&P futures are edging higher this morning, led by strength in tech after upbeat earnings from Micron and a surge in Alibaba to a four-year high on new AI investment plans. President Trump pivoted on Ukraine in his U.N. speech, while Fed Chair Powell warned of persistent risks in the labor market and inflation, calling the outlook “challenging.” Investors remain cautious amid elevated valuations and recent volatility. On earnings, MU, AIR, and MLKN delivered positive results last night, with KB Home set to report after the bell.
Justin Bergner shares his take on the current market landscape, where AI-driven stocks, such as Nvidia (NVDA), are driving gains, but inflation and job market concerns, as highlighted by Fed Chair Powell, create a tug-of-war. Despite the S&P 500's expensive valuation, Bergner sees value in the "pick and shovel" space, particularly in industrial distribution, citing Westco International (WCC) and GXO Logistics (GXO) as compelling plays.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following the subdued lead from Wall Street; Japanese markets returned from holiday, Chinese markets were choppy before posting gains.Fed Chair Powell said that towards the next meeting, the Fed will look at labour market, growth data, and inflation data to assess whether policy is in the right place, adding that if it is not, they will move it there.DXY edged higher throughout the APAC session, EUR/USD briefly dipped under 1.1800, AUD was boosted by Aussie CPI, JPY weakened slightly post-PMI.US President Trump shifted his stance on Ukraine and said he thinks Ukraine, with the support of the EU, is in a position to fight and "win" all of Ukraine back in its original form.OpenAI, Oracle (ORCL), and Softbank (9984 JT) announced five new US data centres; NVIDIA (NVDA) director Mark A. Stevens sold over 350k common shares.European equity futures are indicative of a softer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after cash closed +0.6% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo Survey (Sep), Supply from Italy, UK, Germany, US, Speeches from BoE's Greene, Fed's Daly.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Carl Quintanilla, Courtney Reagan and Michael Santoli explored the record run for stocks, with the Dow, S&P 500 and the Financials sector all hitting fresh all-time highs. The anchors also reacted to comments from Fed Governor Bowman and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee ahead of Fed Chair Powell's Tuesday speech. Vertiv Executive Chairman David Cote joined the show at Post 9 to discuss the AI landscape. Also in focus: The White House links Tylenol to autism, Jimmy Kimmel's show to return to ABC, President Trump at the United Nations, Palantir's first year as an S&P 500 stock, AutoZone's fifth consecutive quarterly earnings miss, the retail sector stock slump. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
US equities were lower in Tuesday trading as stocks ended a bit off worst levels. Big story today was reversal from Monday's price action, as AI and Big Tech leading to the downside. Fed Chair Powell largely echoed his comments from last week's FOMC meeting.
European bourses gradually climb higher and currently at peaks; US equity futures are flat awaiting Fed Chair Powell.GBP hit by soft PMI, Eurozone data showed diverging fortunes for manufacturing and services.USTs are essentially flat; Gilts modestly out-edge peers following disappointing flash PMI metrics.Crude initially in the red but have managed to climb higher, XAU at another ATH, catching a bid on reports that China aims to become custodian of foreign gold reserves.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs (Sep), US Richmond Fed Index, NBH Policy Announcement; Speakers include BoE's Pill, Fed's Powell, Bostic, Bowman, ECB's Cipollone, BoC's Macklem, US President Trump at UN General Assembly; Supply from the US; Earnings from Micron.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Following the Fed's decision to cut by 25bp, we discuss why we now expect substantially more rate cuts in 2025-26, and the impact of the appointment of a new Fed chair in coming months. In Europe, we preview the on-hold decisions we expect from both Swiss National Bank and Riksbank next week. In Asia, we put a spotlight on Indonesia. In this episode, we also speak with Yusuke Miyairi, our G10 FX strategist, who explains why he sees USD/JPY lower in the near-term, amid the latest political developments in Japan. Chapters: US: 01:59, Europe: 10:23, Asia: 15:51, Japan: 17:24.
Today's Headlines: ABC yanked Jimmy Kimmel Live off the air “indefinitely” after Kimmel joked in his monologue about conservatives spinning the Charlie Kirk shooting, with the FCC chair threatening action against Disney and ABC. Meanwhile, the DOJ quietly pulled a study from its site showing far-right violence vastly outpaces left-wing or Islamist extremism—though archived versions and even a Cato Institute report back that up. On Capitol Hill, FBI Director Kash Patel's second day of testimony was another loud but empty circus, while former CDC Director Susan Monarez dropped bigger bombshells: RFK Jr allegedly pressured her daily to change the vaccine schedule, demanded pre-approval of advisory panel recs, and called CDC staff “child killers.” She says she was fired for defending science; meanwhile, the CDC just announced it will ban remote work for employees with health conditions. The Fed cut rates by a quarter point and hinted at two more cuts this year as inflation lingers but jobs weaken. The Trump admin ordered the National Park Service to remove references to slavery and Native American history in the name of “patriotism,” because nothing says history like a good whitewash. In the UK, police arrested four members of Led By Donkeys for projecting Epstein/Trump/Prince Andrew images onto Windsor Castle during Trump's state visit. And finally, Jerry Greenfield of Ben & Jerry's is walking away after 47 years, accusing Unilever of muzzling the brand on social issues—especially Gaza. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: NBC News: Disney's ABC pulls 'Jimmy Kimmel Live!' after FCC chair criticizes the host's Charlie Kirk comments Spectrum News: Vance, Trump falsely claim left-wing violence outpaces the right as DOJ deletes report stating otherwise CNN: Takeaways from FBI Director Kash Patel's testimony on Jeffrey Epstein WaPo: Takeaways from fired CDC director's Senate testimony CNBC: Fed meeting recap: Fed Chair Powell calls quarter-point trim a 'risk management cut' NYT: National Parks Ordered To Remove Some Materials on Slavery and Tribes Axios: 4 arrested after Trump, Epstein images beamed onto Windsor Castle WSJ: Ben & Jerry's Co-Founder Quits After 47 Years, Cites Loss of Independence Under Unilever Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fed cut rates by 25bps to 4.00-4.25%, as expected, citing a shift in risk balance. Bowman and Waller joined consensus, calling for a 25bps reduction; new Governor Miran dissented, preferring a 50bps cut.Nine of the 19 Fed officials see two additional cuts in 2025, two see one cut, and six see no more reductions.Fed Chair Powell said he doesn't feel the need to move quickly on rates, and that “you could think of the cut as a risk management cut”, and that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting approach.Markets saw an initial dovish reaction to the FOMC statement followed by a hawkish reversal heading into and during Chair Powell's press conference. Fed rate cut in December still fully priced in.APAC stocks traded mixed following the choppy reaction to the FOMC meeting; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5%.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug), BoE Announcement, Norges Bank Announcement, SARB Announcement, Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, de Guindos, Nagel & Schnabel, US President Trump & UK PM Starmer press conference, Supply from Spain, France & US, Earnings from FedEx & Lennar.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
CFRA's Sam Stovall and Max's Gary Zimmerman share their expectations for the Fed's announcement today, with both anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut, but not necessarily agreeing that it's justified. Stovall believes Fed Chair Powell's commentary will sound hawkish, suggesting only one more rate cut this year, while Zimmerman points to the $5 trillion increase in the U.S. money supply since the pandemic and still-elevated inflation above the Fed's 2% target. The pair also discusses potential dissension among Fed voters, the impact on the labor market, and sectors that may be most affected by the announcement.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
APAC stocks traded mixed with global risk sentiment cautious ahead of the crucial FOMC policy decision.White House said it was further extending the TikTok enforcement delay, with the deadline to sell TikTok extended until December 16th.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.3% on Tuesday.DXY is flat after yesterday's selling pressure. EUR/USD retains a firm footing on a 1.18 handle, GBP awaits UK inflation metrics.USTs and Bunds are steady. Crude futures slightly eased back from this week's peak.Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Wage Tracker, UK Inflation (Aug), EZ HICP Final (Aug), New Zealand GDP (Q2), US Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Announcement, BoC Announcement, BCB Announcement, Bank of Indonesia Announcement, ECB's Lagarde, Nagel, Cipollone, Fed Chair Powell, BoC's Macklem & US President Trump, Supply from Germany & UK, Earnings from General Mills.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
White House said it was further extending the TikTok enforcement delay, with the deadline to sell TikTok extended until December 16th.European bourses are mixed; NQ saw fleeting pressure on reports that China ordered tech firms to stop buying NVIDIA's AI chips; NVIDIA -0.9% pre-market.USD is a touch firmer as markets brace for today's FOMC announcementNVIDIA pressure lifts fixed income to highs pre-FOMC, Gilts outperform after the region's inflation report which was broadly in-line but as Services cooled a touch.Crude trades with modest losses; Dollar strength weighs on gold.Looking ahead, New Zealand GDP (Q2), US Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Announcement, BoC Announcement, BCB Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Nagel, Fed Chair Powell, BoC's Macklem & US President Trump. Earnings from General Mills.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
On this episode of The Steve Gruber Show, Nick Hopwood, Founder and President of Peak Wealth Management, shares his expert insights on the current state of the financial markets and retirement planning strategies. Nick breaks down the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate cuts, why investors shouldn't stay in cash, and how international indexes are hitting all-time highs despite widespread nervousness. He also revisits the trends following Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, explaining how historical patterns show strong returns for investors over the coming year. Nick also covers tax-efficient strategies for Bene IRAs and why having a solid plan, and trusting it, is more important than ever. Listeners can get a second opinion from Nick and his team of CFPs at peakwm.com/gruber
US equity futures are firmer. Asia ended mostly higher, and European markets opened firmer. Focus is on the US August nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show another sub-100K print with unemployment rising to its highest since mid-2023; Softer labor market signals earlier in the week and dovish-leaning remarks from Fed Chair Powell have led markets to fully price in a September rate cut with another by year-end; President Trump signed an executive order implementing the US-Japan trade agreement, formally setting a 15% tariff that extends to autos and avoids tariff stacking. Japan pledged more rice imports and an annual agricultural purchase commitment alongside its $550B investment package.Companies Mentioned: Cadence Design Systems, Hexagon, Broadcom, OpenAI, Starbucks
Opinions by market pundits have been flying since Fed Chair Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole last week, leaving the door open for interest rate cuts as soon as in September. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains his continued call for a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the Fed's new signaling on policy and what it means for stocks. It's Monday, August 25th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Over the past few months, the markets started to anticipate a Fed pivot to a more dovish stance this fall. More specifically, the bond market started to price in a very high likelihood for the Fed to start cutting interest rates again in September. Equities have taken their cues from this signaling in the bond market by trading higher through most of the summer – despite lingering concerns about tariffs, international conflicts and valuation. I have remained bullish throughout this period given our focus on historically strong earnings revisions and the view that the Fed's next move would be to cut rates even if the timing remained uncertain. Last week, the Fed held its annual symposium in Jackson Hole where they typically discuss near term policy intentions as well as larger considerations for their strategic policy framework. We learned two key things. First, the Fed seems closer to cutting rates in September than the last time Chair Powell spoke publicly. This change also comes after a week in which the markets were left wondering if he would remain more hawkish until inflation data confirmed what markets have already figured out. Clearly, Powell leaned more dovish. And with markets a bit nervous going into his speech on Friday morning, equities rallied sharply the rest of the day. Second, the Fed also indicated that it will no longer target average inflation at 2 percent. Instead, it will make 2 percent the target at all times. This means the Fed will not tolerate inflation above or below target to manage the average like it did in 2021-22. It also suggests a more hawkish Fed should the economy recover more strongly than is currently expected or inflation reaccelerates. From my standpoint, this is bullish for stocks over the next few weeks and markets can now fully anticipate Fed cuts in September. However, I see a few risks for September and October worth thinking about as the S&P 500 approaches our longstanding 6500 target. The first risk is the Fed decides to not cut after all because either growth is better or inflation is higher than expected. That would be worth a small correction in stocks given the high likelihood of a cut that is now priced in. The second risk is the Fed cuts but the bond market decides it's being too carefree about inflation and longer term bonds sell off. A sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields would likely elicit a bigger correction in stocks until the Treasury and Fed regain control. Here's the important message I want to leave you with. A major bear market ended in April, and a new bull market began. It's rare for new bull markets to last only four months and more likely they last one-to-two years, at a minimum. What that means is that any dips we get this fall are likely to be buying opportunities for longer term investors. What gives us even more confidence in that statement is that earnings revisions continue to move sharply higher. The Fed uses economic data to make its decisions and that data is generally backward looking. Equity investors look at company data and guidance which is forward looking. This fact alone explains the wide divergence between equity prices and Fed decisions, which tend to be late and after equity markets have already figured out what's going to happen rather than what's in the past. Bottom line, I remain bullish on the next 12 months given what companies and equity markets are telling us. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
Last Friday, President Trump announced a deal that would see the U.S. government take 10 percent equity in the chipmaker, Intel. Under the terms of the deal, the government will use nearly 9 billion dollars in federal grant money from the 2022 CHIPS Act to purchase this stake in the company. FOX Business correspondent Lydia Hu speaks with SlateStone Wealth partner and chief market strategist Kenny Polcari about this Intel deal and the market reaction to Fed Chair Powell last week. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss the recent market response to Fed Chair Powell's annual address at the Jackson Hole conference. They delve into the implications for rate cuts and market movements, highlighting key points from Powell's speech. The conversation covers the mixed signals from the labor market and inflation risks, the performance of different sectors and asset classes, and the fallout of the Fed's policy shifts. They also touch upon notable stock performances like Nvidia, impacted by recent geopolitical tensions and policy decisions. The episode concludes with observations on the potential for market corrections and the importance of monitoring economic indicators and currencies. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media
Today's show:Terra's collapse, Powell's pivot, and OpenAI's explosive growth all collide in this TWiST deep dive.Do Kwon has pled guilty after Terra/Luna's $60B implosion, Fed Chair Powell hints at a September rate cut, and OpenAI has officially crossed $1B in monthly revenue (on a $12B run rate). Jason and Alex unpack what this means for founders, LPs, and the next wave of AI + crypto.They also cover Canva's $42B comeback, Anthropic's doubled $10B fundraise, and the brewing battle between Figma & Canva.Plus: Uber, Nuro & Lucid's $6B robotaxi push — and why drivers are already protesting in Wuhan & Boston.#Startups #Crypto #AI #VentureCapital #OpenAI #Anthropic #Canva #Figma #ThisWeekInStartupsTimestamps:(0:00) INTRO(01:15) Fed rate cut signals & market reaction(05:36) Jason's $400K in new fund bets(10:25) Miro - Help your teams get great done with Miro. Check out miro.com to find out how!(11:30) Show Continues…(16:22) Do Kwon & the Terra/Luna collapse(20:22) Bolt - Don't be left behind. Build apps quickly without knowing how to code with Bolt.new. Try it free at https://www.bolt.new/twist.(21:23) Show Continues…(29:43) Alphasense - Get deeper insights into your business with the power of AI search and market intelligence. Start with a free trial at https://www.alpha-sense.com/twist(30:55) Show Continues…(36:14) OpenAI's $1B/month revenue run rate(42:13) Anthropic's $10B round & AI market sizing(51:31) Canva's $42B valuation & Figma comparisonSubscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.comCheck out the TWIST500: https://www.twist500.comSubscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcpFollow Lon:X: https://x.com/lonsFollow Alex:X: https://x.com/alexLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelmFollow Jason:X: https://twitter.com/JasonLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanisThank you to our partners:(10:25) Miro - Help your teams get great done with Miro. Check out miro.com to find out how!(20:22) Bolt - Don't be left behind. Build apps quickly without knowing how to code with Bolt.new. Try it free at https://www.bolt.new/twist.(29:43) Alphasense - Get deeper insights into your business with the power of AI search and market intelligence. Start with a free trial at https://www.alpha-sense.com/twistGreat TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarlandCheck out Jason's suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanisFollow TWiST:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartupsYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekinInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thisweekinstartupsTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thisweekinstartupsSubstack: https://twistartups.substack.comSubscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@founderuniversity1916
Trump publicly humiliates Fed Chair Powell on live television, demanding lower interest rates while criticizing Federal Reserve building renovations. The administration continues consolidating Fed-Treasury power as Trump calls for Lisa Cook's resignation and nominates Stephen Myron to the Fed Board. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plans remain uncertain despite Scott Bessent's conflicting statements about government Bitcoin holdings. Harvard Endowment reveals over $100 million Bitcoin ETF position, signaling major institutional adoption. Gold revaluation discussions emerge alongside potential Intel nationalization as wartime economy policies expand. Crypto IPOs from Bullish and Gemini show mixed results while Block unveils revolutionary Bitcoin mining hardware "The Rig" to challenge Bitmain's monopoly. The episode explores monetary policy theatrics, Bitcoin's growing institutional acceptance, and innovation breaking centralized control systems.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the central bank's Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, saying, “The balance of risks appears to be shifting.” U.S. stocks rallied as investors took Powell's words as a hint toward a shift in policy in September. FOX Business co-anchor of The Big Money Show Jackie DeAngelis spoke with Ken Mahoney (CEO of Mahoney Asset Management) about the reignited rate cut optimism on the heels of Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss recent market volatility, the impact of Federal Reserve minutes, and the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. They analyze retail earnings, with a focus on the poor performance of Target and the contrasting success of Walmart and TJX. The conversation touches on the challenges of inventory management and corporate governance at Target. They also delve into the implications of tariffs, the potential for geopolitical events to influence markets, and the resilience of market participants. The discussion includes insights on Palantir's stock movements, the potential for AI trade valuation growth, and the importance of monitoring economic indicators such as the PCE reading and jobs report. Finally, they contemplate the influence of political pressures on the Federal Reserve and the possible market reactions to Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media
President Trump tours the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation site, using the over-budget project and high interest rates to ratchet up pressure on Chair Jerome Powell ahead of next week's rate decision. The House Oversight Committee votes to subpoena the Clintons, former FBI and DOJ leaders, and compel the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Wrestling icon and Trump ally Hulk Hogan dies at 71, remembered as a cultural legend, political firebrand, and the patriotic face of '80s Hulkamania.CHEF iQ: Visit https://CHEFIQ.com and use code MK for 15% off during our FLASH SALERiverbend Ranch: Visit https://riverbendranch.com/ | Use promo code MEGYN for $20 off your first order.
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