Podcasts about ism services

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the SpaceX IPO targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation with a record $75 billion raise pricing next Thursday, historical data on how mega-IPOs perform and float dynamics, the anomalous JOLTS job openings jump in the West, today's ISM Services and Fed Beige Book releases, and the USTR's new Section 301 tariffs of 10-12.5% on major trading partners including Canada, the EU, Mexico, China, and the UK tied to forced labor.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

In this exclusive Manufacturing Talk Radio interview, host Lewis Weiss sits down with ISM Services PMI Chair Steve Miller to discuss the pivotal May ISM Services Report the very day it is released June 3rd 2026, breaking down the key data points impacting the services economy. To shed light on the report's crucial findings, we speak with Steve Miller, a preeminent authority within the services sector. Miller is currently serving as ISM Services PMI Chair and is an accomplished supply chain management executive. His distinguished career includes 40 years of experience in procurement, supply chain management, IT implementation and operations, and operations management consulting at Disney, P.F. Chang's, Accenture, and Kearney. With 40 years of experience in procurement, supply chain management, IT implementation and operations, Miller offers unparalleled insight into services trends and economic activity. Check out data discussed in this episode here: https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/nmi/fuelrob202605svcs.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brian Szytel reports stocks higher (Dow +356, S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1%) with bonds quiet and the 10-year at 4.42%, drifting up on Middle East turmoil and higher inflation expectations tied to energy prices. Oil continues to whipsaw amid geopolitical risk between the U.S. and Iran, including limited U.S. military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and some fire exchanged. He says equities are holding up because S&P 500 earnings are strong: about 60% have reported with revenue growth near 10%, earnings growth around 27%, and record margins above 20% helped by a more tech-heavy index. Economic data was mostly positive: JOLTS job openings at 6.8M, new home sales at 682K, and ISM Services at 53.6. He also explains Fed currency swap lines as a longstanding liquidity tool supporting the dollar's reserve status. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:30 Rates and Oil Whipsaw 01:19 Why Stocks Hold Up 02:18 Economic Data Check 03:22 Fed Swap Lines Explained 05:02 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

US President Trump said the war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.US officials say the military is closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted, "As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into a quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE."European and US equity futures are broadly firmer; Palantir -2% as commercial revenue fell short of expectations.DXY is flat, JPY experiences volatile two-way action, AUD pressured post-RBA, where it hiked by 25bps, statement was net-hawkish, but Governor Bullock suggests there is room now to wait and see.Gilts gap lower on return from a Bank Holiday, USTs and Bunds relatively contained.Crude pares Monday's gains, to the benefit of XAU.Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits Final (Mar), Canadian Balance of Trade (Mar), Canadian PMI (Apr), US PMI Final (Apr), US ISM Services (Apr), US JOLTS (Mar), US New Home Sales (Mar), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (May), New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q1). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Fed's Bowman, Barr. Supply from Germany. Earnings from AMD, AMC, Strategy, Tempus AI, Shopify, PayPal, Pfizer.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran, Project Freedom, missiles sur les Émirats : le cessez-le-feu du 8 avril vient d'éclater en direct. Pendant ce temps, Palantir publie le meilleur trimestre de son histoire et termine en baisse. Le paradoxe parfait d'un marché qui n'accepte plus rien d'autre que la perfection. AMD publie ce soir, Bitcoin reprend les 80 000$, Strategy publie aussi. ISM Services à 16h et Pfizer avant ouverture complètent un agenda chargé. Le brief complet pour ne rien manquer d'une journée qui s'annonce decisive. Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

In this exclusive Manufacturing Talk Radio interview, host Lewis Weiss and Amy Nicklaus sit down with ISM Services PMI Chair Steve Miller to discuss the pivotal March ISM Services Report the very day it is released April 6th 2026, breaking down the key data points impacting the services economy. To shed light on the report's crucial findings, we speak with Steve Miller, a preeminent authority within the services sector.Miller is currently serving as ISM Services PMI Chair and is an accomplished supply chain management executive. His distinguished career includes 40 years of experience in procurement, supply chain management, IT implementation and operations, and operations management consulting at Disney, P.F. Chang's, Accenture, and Kearney. With 40 years of experience in procurement, supply chain management, IT implementation and operations, Miller offers unparalleled insight into services trends and economic activity Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US President Trump posted on Saturday that time is running out, and there are ‘48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. He also reiterated his threat to Iran to open the Strait, or they will be living in hell, and posted "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!".The Pakistan Army Chief reportedly held separate calls with US VP Vance, Envoy Witkoff and Iran's Araghchi, according to a Reuters source report. A proposal for a final agreement was outlined, and if agreed, it would lead to an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of Hormuz. Crude choppy on geopolitics with losses this morning amid ceasefire efforts.US equity futures tick higher on improved risk tone; European equities closed for holidays. DXY dips below 100 as crude eases on war-ending efforts.T-notes rise, ISM Services and Trump comments ahead. Looking ahead, highlights include ISM Services PMI (Mar) and comments by US President Trump.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss their takeaways from the First Trust Forum, ISM Services, and the Fed Beige Book. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

A "goldilocks" ISM services print pulled major indices into green territory on Wednesday. Kevin Green explains why this is the report "you would like to see" as markets struggle in a volatile environment. He notes the jobs front seeing extra support in a private payrolls bump via the ADP employment report. However, KG says "we're not out of the woods yet" with headlines out of Iran poised in impact volatility and energy prices. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The latest PMI composite report came in better than expected but ISM services was below estimates. Kevin Green warns the latter is "stagflationary" in nature. He later turns to Enphase Energy's (ENPH) rally which KG himself predicted was likely. He recaps his analysis and turns to call-filled options activity fueling the AI and energy beneficiary. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

"Salut à tous ! Ce mercredi 4 février 2026, on se réveille dans un marché qui marche sur des œufs, coincé entre des records de façade et une réalité de terrain de plus en plus lourde.Au menu de ce matin :Le 'Quitté ou Double' de Google : Alphabet publie ce soir. Avec une valorisation qui a franchi les 4 000 milliards $, le marché n'attend pas seulement des chiffres, il veut voir la monétisation réelle de l'IA. Attention : dans un marché où les gérants n'ont plus que 3,2 % de cash, le moindre 'manque d'éclat' pourrait servir de prétexte à une purge massive.L'Or comme boussole : Pourquoi le métal jaune explose les 5 000 $ alors que les indices US sont au plus haut ? C'est le signal d'alarme des 'grosses mains' qui se protègent contre un risque de liquidité que la Fed essaie tant bien que mal de masquer.La lessiveuse d'hier : On décrypte le 'V-shape' de la veille. Entre drone iranien et vote budgétaire aux US, la volatilité est de retour. On a vu le Bitcoin vaciller sous les 75k$ avant de se faire racheter. Mais est-ce un vrai rebond ou un dernier souffle avant l'impact ?L'agenda de feu : PMI en Europe ce matin, ADP et ISM Services aux US cet après-midi. On a les chiffres pour valider, ou non, notre biais. Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading though stocks ended a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 86bbps, 30bps, and 17bps respectively. Themes of the day highlighted in mixed headlines regarding Microsoft customer AI adoption versus Marvell data center growth. Softening labor market, support for more Fed cuts, also highlighted in November ADP private payrolls falling 32K versus expectations to increase by~10K, while Industrial Production met, and ISM Services and S&P Services PMI came in ahead. December FOMC decision on deck for next week, with probably of additional 25bp cut just below 90%.

A better overall ISM Services number gave a boost to Wednesday's trading action, says Kevin Green. He explains why the print is "pretty decent" following what investors saw the month prior. As for ADP employment, KG considers the pressure on small businesses important as they employ around 50% of the U.S. workforce. It's something he believes pushes the Fed to cut interest rates this month. KG continues to eye natural gas levels amid a swirl of macro and geopolitical movers. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

APAC stocks were higher as the region took impetus from the rebound on Wall St, where all major indices gained amid dip buying.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures relatively flat after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Wednesday.DXY traded rangebound after having recently snapped a 5-day rally, despite firmer-than-expected ADP and ISM Services data, while catalysts were quiet overnight10yr UST futures saw some slight reprieve after slumping yesterday; Bund futures languished near the prior day's lows.US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 11:00EST/16:00GMT on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production, EZ Retail Sales, Canadian Leading Index, US Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators, US Challenger Layoffs, BoE, Banxico & Norges Bank Policy Announcements, Speakers including Fed's Williams, Barr, Hammack, Waller, Paulson & Musalem, ECB's Lane, Nagel, Schnabel & de Guindos, BoE's Bailey, BoC's Macklem, Rogers & Kozicki, Supply from Spain & FranceEarnings from Continental, Commerzbank, AstraZeneca, Sainsbury's, Airbnb, ConocoPhillips & Warner Bros.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kevin Green and Nicole Petallides report live from Charles Schwab's IMPACT 2025 event in Denver. KG discusses the latest swath of economic data in ISM Services, PMI Composite and ADP Employment data which helped lift stocks in early Wednesday trading. KG says the revisions in jobs data remains a key focal point for investors, even as the government shutdown continues. Later, he and Nicole discuss some of the day's earnings movers especially tech companies before turning to the rebound in Bitcoin (/BTC) after it dipped below $100k.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The delay of non-farm payrolls means that ISM services took higher priority on Friday. The numbers weren't promising. Kevin Green highlights contractions in the report and how they serve as early indicators to stagflation pressure. Additionally, it makes the Fed's job harder when it comes to interest rates as the economic picture gets foggier. He also looks into the international landscape through Eurozone PMI, which shows more promising signs outside of France.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

European bourses and US futures are firmer into a quieter than initially scheduled session on account of the gov't shutdown, ES +0.3%.DXY underpressure, down to a 97.70 trough. JPY is the relative laggard after remarks from Ueda, NZD continues to climb.USTs await ISM Services, Bunds unreactive to PMI revisions and remarks from Lagarde re. Knot. Gilts are attentive to the OBR's first forecast round.Crude saw fleeting upside on Hamas asking for more time to consult on Trump's Gaza plan, XAU pauses for breath.Looking ahead, US Final Composite PMIs (Sep), ISM Services (Sep), ECB's Schnabel, Fed's Williams, Jefferson, BoE's Bailey.Due to the US government shutdown, the following data will not be released: US NFP (Sep).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Andrew, Pedro, and Tom discuss Stephen Miran's testimony, ISM services, Lululemon and Broadcom earnings. Song: Walkin' on the Sun - Smash Mouth For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel breaks down the latest economic data releases and their impact on the markets. He discusses the paradox of "bad news is good news" in the current market environment, analyzes labor market trends, and explains how Federal Reserve policy and interest rates are influencing investor sentiment. The episode also features a thoughtful exploration of the Fed's expanding powers, the risks of market intervention, and a lighthearted close with NFL season excitement. 00:00 – Introduction & Market Overview 00:24 – Anticipation for Non-Farm Payroll Report 00:46 – The “Bad News is Good News” Paradox 01:03 – Economic Data Recap 01:48 – ISM Services & Jobless Claims 02:43 – Q2 Productivity & Market Performance 03:27 – The Federal Reserve's Role 04:42 – Expansion of Fed Powers 06:00 – Risks of Market Distortion 06:36 – Final Thoughts & NFL Kickoff Have questions or want to hear more on a specific topic? Reach out to the show! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Even with ADP Employment and Jobless Claims data, Chris Versace says the latest ISM Services print will help determine Thursday's trading activity. Ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls print, he believes looking at revised jobs numbers from the summer paint a picture of a continued slowing in the labor market. For the Fed's rate cut odds, Chris says it's "going to come down to the wire" as mixed messages continue to be shared from Fed governors.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Bitcoin has reclaimed $111K, but analysts warn the market structure remains fragile after last week's whale-driven sell-off. Key levels between $105K and $118K could dictate the next big move as volatility stays elevated.This week's U.S. economic calendar is stacked: ISM Manufacturing on Tuesday, JOLTS job openings Wednesday, a wave of ADP payrolls, jobless claims, and ISM Services on Thursday, and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls Friday. Each release will shape Fed policy expectations and could spark major moves in risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has teased a “major announcement,” fueling speculation that could ripple through political and financial markets. Traders are watching closely, given Trump's history of market-moving statements and his administration's growing alignment with pro-crypto policies.

Economic and Market Analysis - August 5th In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a comprehensive analysis of the market and economic conditions as of August 5th. He discusses the marginal declines in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq, and a noteworthy shift from growth to value stocks. Sitel delves into the ISM Services index slightly missing expectations for July and touches upon PMI numbers. He explains the correlation between current Fed policies, interest rates, and foreign investment. The episode also highlights earnings season progress, with revenue and earnings growth showing positive year-over-year trends. A significant focus is placed on market valuations, the role of artificial intelligence investments, and the overall economic outlook. Finally, Brian answers a viewer question regarding interest rates and Fed policy. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:28 Economic News and Indicators 02:22 Interest Rates and Fed Policy 04:29 Earnings Season Insights 05:33 Market Valuations and Future Outlook 06:49 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The indexes took a leg lower after the ISM Services index flatlined in July and indicated higher inflation and lower employment, Services makes up about 70 percent of the U.S. economy so a slowdown in the sector could mean trouble ahead, Stocks were also bogged down by Trump telling CNBC about tariffs on chips and pharmaaceuticlals

Tuesday's ISM Services print caused most stocks to slide, though Palantir (PLTR) shined as a bright spot after posting strong earnings which nearly doubled commercial revenue. However, A.I. names after hours disappointed. AMD Inc. (AMD) and Supermicro (SMCI) both showed weakness in their reports. Marley Kayden takes investors through the day's biggest earnings.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Tuesday's ISM Services print shows signs that the economy is slowing, according to Charles Schwab's Joe Mazzola. While he's impressed with how the markets recovered off the session lows, there's concern the SPX will hold or sink below 6,300 if weakness persists. Joe talks about how the data signals a shift away from optimism. He later touches on the role A.I. capex plays in market moves ahead.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The indexes took a leg lower after the ISM Services index flatlined in July and indicated higher inflation and lower employment, Services makes up about 70 percent of the U.S. economy so a slowdown in the sector could mean trouble ahead, Stocks were also bogged down by Trump telling CNBC about tariffs on chips and pharmaaceuticlalsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

European bourses began the session firmer, but that strength has waned to more mixed trade; US futures similar into a packed agendaDXY broadly flat intraday but with a marginal upward bias. G10s contained, but generally softer. GBP outperforms after Wednesday's post-PMQs pressure.Similarly, Gilts lead fixed income. USTs await data. Bunds unreactive to Final PMIs.Crude benchmarks softer, despite limited newsflow. Metals mixed, XAU off highs and fading as the USD picks up slightly.US Reconciliation Bill passed the Rules vote, awaiting full vote; timing unclear, dependent on the Minority Leader, but should be in the next hour(s).Looking ahead, highlights include US PMIs (Final), US NFP, International Trade, Jobless Claims, ISM Services, Canadian Trade, ECB Minutes. Speakers include Fedʼs BosticDesk Schedule: On Thursday 3rd July, the desk will shut at 18:15BST/13:15EDT due to the US Independence Day. The service will resume on Thursday 3rd July for the beginning of Asia-Pac coverage at 22:00BST/17:00EDT.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks failed to sustain the mostly constructive handover from Wall St counterparts with sentiment in the region cautious as participants braced for the key US jobs data and digested Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMIs.Siemens confirmed it has been notified by the US Commerce Department that export control restrictions on EDA software and technology to customers in China are no longer in place.US House Republicans were reportedly stuck and didn't have the votes for the rule, while Republicans had told members to go back into their offices and a vote on the rule didn't look imminent, according to Punchbowl.UK PM Starmer said Rachel Reeves will be the Chancellor for years to come and will be the Chancellor at the next election.European equity futures indicate a marginally positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.7% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US PMIs (Final), Swiss CPI, US NFP, International Trade, Jobless Claims, ISM Services, Canadian Trade, ECB Minutes & BoE DMP, Speakers including BoJ's Takata & Fed's Bostic, Supply from Spain & US Refunding Announcement.Desk Schedule: On Thursday 3rd July, the desk will shut at 18:15BST/13:15EDT due to the US Independence Day. The service will resume on Thursday 3rd July for the beginning of Asia-Pac coverage at 22:00BST/17:00EDT. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tom discusses the ISM services report data, ECB rate cuts, and Trump's travel ban. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

US equity futures slightly weaker. European markets opened flat to slightly higher, while most Asian markets ended in positive territory with Kospi outperforming. Markets focused on trade and central bank updates. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps today amid cooling inflation. Uncertainty remains over the timing of a potential Trump-Xi call, with reports citing reluctance from China's side. Institutional investors reportedly shifting away from US markets due to debt and trade concerns, with Europe seen as a relative beneficiary. Weaker-than-expected US ADP and ISM Services data added to Fed policy scrutiny ahead of Friday's jobs report. US fiscal concerns also back in focus, with the CBO projecting a $2.42T deficit increase from the reconciliation bill.Companies Mentioned: NVIDIA, Amazon, Citigroup

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the current state of wage growth, job prospects, inflation trends, Federal Reserve activity, and emerging trade agreements. Wage growth, which experienced downward pressure following the Fed's interest rate hikes starting in 2022, appears to be stabilizing. Currently, the average monthly wage per U.S. worker is around $7,000. How does this figure compare with wages in the E.U. and other nations? On the inflation front, the cost of borrowing (interest rates) exceeds the rate of inflation (CPI), a potentially positive signal for the economy. Is there mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates this summer? Meanwhile, trade negotiations are gaining momentum. How significant is it for the U.S. to secure a balanced trade agreement with China? What elements of the recent E.U. deal stand out as particularly beneficial for the U.S.? And which other countries might be priorities in America's trade strategy? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Core PCE Inflation at 2.6% (YOY) • 10-year bond yield at 4.37% • ISM Services at 51.6

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the current state of wage growth, job prospects, inflation trends, Federal Reserve activity, and emerging trade agreements. Wage growth, which experienced downward pressure following the Fed's interest rate hikes starting in 2022, appears to be stabilizing. Currently, the average monthly wage per U.S. worker is around $7,000. How does this figure compare with wages in the E.U. and other nations? On the inflation front, the cost of borrowing (interest rates) exceeds the rate of inflation (CPI), a potentially positive signal for the economy. Is there mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates this summer? Meanwhile, trade negotiations are gaining momentum. How significant is it for the U.S. to secure a balanced trade agreement with China? What elements of the recent E.U. deal stand out as particularly beneficial for the U.S.? And which other countries might be priorities in America's trade strategy? Tune in to learn more!   Key Takeaways: Core PCE Inflation at 2.6% (YOY) 10-year bond yield at 4.37% ISM Services at 51.6

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Services PMI, the German chancellor election, and earnings updates.For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

US President Trump said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point. He answered no when asked if he plans to speak with Chinese President Xi this week.US President Trump reiterated that the Fed should lower interest rates and said he won't remove Fed Chair Powell.European bourses are mixed but with price action fairly rangebound; FTSE 100 closed, with the UK on holiday; US futures entirely in the green.USD kicks the week off on the backfoot, EUR/USD returns to a 1.13 handle, APAC currencies in focus.USTs rangebound with price action subdued amidst a number of holidays.Crude slips on OPEC+; precious and base metals catch and hold a bid.OPEC+ members agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June, a source report noted the group will likely approve another accelerated hike of 411k bpd for July.Looking ahead, US Employment Trends, ISM Services, Supply from the US, Earnings from Palantir, Him & Hers, Ford, Realty, Tyson Foods.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed in holiday-thinned trade with most major markets in the region shut.US President Trump said he is willing to lower tariffs on China at some point. He answered no when asked if he plans to speak with Chinese President Xi this week.US President Trump reiterated that the Fed should lower interest and said he won't remove Fed Chair Powell.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.4% on Friday.DXY has begun the week on the backfoot, notable strength seen in APAC-currencies (TWD), EUR/USD returned to a 1.13 handle.OPEC+ members agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June, a source report noted the group will likely approve another accelerated hike of 411k bpd for July.Israel is readying a "massive response" to Houthis and Iran after the airport missile attack, according to the Washington Examiner.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, EZ Sentix Index, US Employment Trends, ISM Services, Supply from the US. UK markets are closed. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Stocks rallied into yesterday's tariff announcement, and investors are digesting the news and trying to sense how it will affect the economy. Jobless claims and ISM Services data are ahead.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.(0130-0425)

US President Trump unveiled individual reciprocal tariffs for each country which are essentially half of what countries were charging the US.The US is to apply a 20% tariff on imports from EU, 34% tariff on imports from China, 26% tariff on imports from India and 25% tariff on imports from South Korea.Trump also stated that the baseline tariff is 10% for all nations and announced 25% auto tariffs, while Canada and Mexico were not subject to reciprocal tariffs for now.US equity futures slumped in response to the tariff announcement (ES -2.6%, NQ -3.1%, RTY -3.9%). Europe is also marked lower with the Eurostoxx 50 future down 1.7%.USD is showing a mixed performance vs. peers but ultimately net lower (AUD, NZD weaker vs. the USD. JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF stronger).Global bond yields are lower with the inflation implications dwarfed by the mass risk-aversion in the market. Fed pricing looks for 82bps of easing by year-end vs. 76bps yesterday morning.Crude is lower as markets digest the global growth implications, whilst spot gold hit another record high.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, EZ Producer Prices, US Weekly Claims, Challenger Layoffs & ISM Services, ECB Minutes & BoE DMP, Speakers including Fed's Cook, Jefferson, US VP Vance, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, ECB's Schnabel & de Guindos, Supply from Spain, France, UK & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump unveiled individual reciprocal tariffs for each country which are essentially half of what countries were charging the US.The US is to apply a 20% tariff on imports from EU, 34% tariff on imports from China, 26% tariff on imports from India and 25% tariff on imports from South Korea.Trump also stated that the baseline tariff is 10% for all nations and announced 25% auto tariffs, while Canada and Mexico were not subject to reciprocal tariffs for now.Indices take a tumble after US tariffs slap sentiment; ES -3.5%DXY briefly dipped below 102.00 whilst EUR/USD sits above 1.10; havens bid.Yields wilt after Trump's Rose Garden speech, desks diverge on Fed implications.Industrial commodities sink amid growth woes and after with focus on a 54% cumulative levy on China.Looking ahead, US Weekly Claims, Challenger Layoffs & ISM Services, ECB Minutes, Speakers including Fed's Cook, Jefferson, US VP Vance, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, ECB's Schnabel.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US equity futures are slightly softer after a strong rally on Wednesday. European markets opened firmer, while Asian equities ended mostly higher, with Hong Kong continuing to outperform while Australia lagged. Markets responded positively to the White House's decision to delay auto tariffs for Canada and Mexico by one month, while officials also suggested potential exemptions for agricultural and other key products under USMCA. Stronger-than-expected ISM Services data showed rising new orders and employment. The ADP private payrolls report missed expectations, while the Beige Book pointed to softer consumer spending and growing business concerns over trade uncertainty. Oil prices remained under pressure despite lingering concerns about inflation.Companies Mentioned: Allegro MicroSystems, Onsemi, Sanken Electric, SGS, Groupe Bruxelles Lambert, Microsoft

Markets are looking to open lower, but there's no, one reason as the cause. We'll retest the 200-DMA again today: Be careful of breaks in support! When these have occurred in the past, they've turned out to be buying opportunities, not selling opportunities. Concerns over negative GDP data should improve as new data is received. This is hinted in improving ISM Services and Manufacturing data, which will feed into the next Atlanta GDP report, and provide positive input. It is also likely that a better-than-expected Employment Report will be seen on Friday. Be careful when everyone is negative: Counter-trend data can reverse that mood. Remember, sellers live higher, buyers live lower. We've got to go back to November 2023 for the last retest of the 200-DMA. Every time markets have been as over sold as this, near-term, bottoms have resulted. So, even though markets could go lower, the trend right now is positive. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r57nK-lMtQ&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Retest200DMA #EmploymentReport #AtlantaGDP #MarketRally #MarketBottom #ReflexiveRally #Tariffs #InvestorSentiment #Negativity #MarketSellOff #MarketCatalyst #MarketCorrection #ReflexiveRally #RebalancingRisk #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #InvestingTrends #InvestmentStrategies #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading as stocks ended a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 115bps, 101bps, and 146bps respectively. Today's bounce seemed to be a function of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico, better economic data, along with some positive sentiment surrounding developments overseas. ADP private payrolls missed, but ISM Services beat, and durable goods orders revised higher. Fed's Beige Book said economic activity slightly higher since mid-January.

US futures gained after the Wall St. close as Lutnick suggested Trump could potentially reduce tariffs on Canada and Mexico, perhaps as soon as Wednesday.APAC mixed but with strength in China after data and the Official Growth Report which maintained a growth target of around 5% and pledged measures to boost spending.EUR underpinned by German debt brake reform with the DXY under pressure as a result, Cable hit a YTD peak while NZD was unreactive to Orr resigning.Bunds weighed on by CDU's Merz saying the first results on debt brake reform have been reached with the SPD alongside proposing new instruments and defence exemptions.Fed's Williams said he does not see the need to change policy currently, and described it as "still restrictive" and with the right balance; highlighted UoM inflation data as one to watch.Crude subdued, XAU range bound and Copper gained on China's report; Trump said he received a letter from Zelensky who is ready to come back to the table.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, US ADP National Employment, US Factory Orders, ISM Services, China NPC, Fed's Beige Book, BoE Treasury Select Hearing, Speakers including BoE's Bailey, Pill, Taylor and Greene, Supply from UK, Earnings from Telecom Italia, Bayer, Adidas, Sandoz, Abercrombie & Fitch, Foot Locker & Marvell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Sentiment lifted after the US Commerce Secretary suggested Trump could potentially reduce tariffs on Canada and Mexico, perhaps as soon as Wednesday.European bourses at session highs; DAX 40 +3% outperforms; US equity futures broadly higher with the RTY +1.2%.EUR surges on German spending plans, DXY around 1.05 after breaking below its 200DMA.Bunds battered by Merz's fiscal reform, USTs await data and tariff updates.Crude subdued continuing recent action & failing to benefit from China's support which has bolstered base metals.Looking ahead, US ADP National Employment, US Factory Orders, ISM Services, Fed's Beige Book, BoE Treasury Select Hearing, Speakers including BoE's Bailey, Pill, Taylor and Greene. Earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch, Foot Locker & Marvell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses mostly lower; NQ underperforms with GOOGL -7% & AMD -8% post-earnings, AAPL -2.5% as China mulls a probe on its App Store.EU prepares to target US big tech if US President Trump pursues tariffs against the EU, according to FT.Dollar dragged lower again, JPY is boosted by wage data, EUR/USD above 1.04.Bonds bid as AAPL reports hit sentiment and into Bessent's first Quarterly Refunding.Gold continues to print record highs on lingering uncertainty; crude on the backfoot despite the firmer Dollar.Looking ahead, US ADP National Employment, ISM Services, International Trade, ECB Wage Tracker, NBP Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lane, Fed's Barkin, Goolsbee, Jefferson & Bowman, US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement.Earnings from Uber, Disney, Ford, Arm & Qualcomm.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with the region only partially sustaining the positive momentum from the US, as Chinese markets reopened from the Spring Festival and participants digested disappointing China Caixin Services PMI data.US President Trump said he will speak to Chinese President Xi at the appropriate time and is in no rush, while he responded 'that's fine' when asked about China's retaliatory tariffs.EU prepares to target US big tech if US President Trump pursues tariffs against the EU, according to FT.US equity futures were subdued with sentiment not helped by earnings including from Alphabet which missed on Google Cloud revenue and fell 7.6% after hours.European equity futures indicate a lower cash open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Italian Retail Sales, US ADP National Employment, ISM Services, International Trade, ECB Wage Tracker, NBP Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lane, Fed's Barkin, Goolsbee, Jefferson & Bowman, Supply from UK & US Treasury Quarterly Refunding AnnouncementEarnings from TotalEnergies, Credit Agricole, Novo Nordisk, Equinor, Pandora SSE, GSK, Santander, Uber, Disney, Ford, Arm & Qualcomm.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following the weak handover from Wall St where tech underperformed as yields climbed after the hot ISM Services and strong JOLTS data.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured with market participants underwhelmed by the latest NDRC press briefing in Beijing.AUD/USD choppy following the latest monthly inflation data from Australia in which the Weighted CPI printed firmer than expected but the annual trimmed mean CPI softened from previous.European equity futures indicate a lower cash open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventory and EIA Nat Gas Change (brought forward on account of the US Day of Mourning), German Retail Sales, EZ Economic Sentiment, US ADP National Employment, Comments from Fed's Waller, FOMC Minutes, Supply from UK, Germany & US, Earnings from Jefferies.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Today's Charles Schwab Big Picture panel turns to today's selling action and its impact on the markets. Liz Ann Sonders says JOLTS and ISM Services shifted the tone, especially if volatility ramps up as a new president takes office. Collin Martin notes the possibility of yields moving up to 5% as sticky inflation persists. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Andrew, Ben, Pedro, and Tom talk about this morning's jobs numbers, ISM Services data, the Longshoremen strike, and Spirit Airlines potentially going bankrupt. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visithttps://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe automobile manufactures are now giving up on all EV production, they realize that this will bankrupt them. No demand equals no sales. Unemployment numbers are on the rise, job openings are shrinking, we have been in a recession and it's getting worse. Trump says if [KH] gets elected we will be a depression. Trump is going reverse everything the [CB]/[DS] has done. The [DS] is now shutting down platforms, arresting those who own platforms, going after influencers that are on the platforms they control. Prepare for a communication blackout. The DOJ/FBI is now prepping the election narrative, when we cheat and decide not certify the election those who speak up will be thrown in prison. Trump warns the [DS], they are trying to throw him prison, he says that two can play the game.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy Volvo gives up plan to sell only EVs by 2030  Car company Volvo has abandoned its target to produce only fully electric cars by 2030, saying it now expects to be selling some hybrid vehicles by that date. The carmaker blamed changing market conditions for its decision to give up a target it had announced only three years ago. It comes as the industry faces a slowdown in demand in some major markets for electric vehicles (EVs) and uncertainty due to the imposition of trade tariffs on EVs made in China. Volvo, which has traditionally flaunted its environmental credentials, joins other major carmakers General Motors and Ford in rowing back on EV ambitions. Volvo now expects at least 90% of its output to be made up of both electric cars and plug-in hybrids by 2030. Source: bbc.com ADP Employment Report Weakest Since Jan 2021 Ahead of tomorrow's "most important data point in history" payrolls print, this morning we get the ADP employment report and jobless claims (and ISM Services) as an aperitif to tease the day traders and test the reaction functions of the algos. Against expectations of adding 145k jobs (a slight improvement over July's 122k), ADP's Employment report printed a dismal +99k for August - the weakest print since January 2021 (and July's +122k was revised down to +111k)... Source: Bloomberg That is also the fifth straight monthly decline in the ADP employment report's jobs additions.   Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1831668103018635284 https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1831679612599898516   https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1831419177317630026   GDI has been a leading indicator of final GDP data revisions and the unemployment rate, primarily near the end of economic cycles. Currently, GDI suggests that the real GDP could be overstated by a whopping ~$600 billion or 3%. However, by the time revisions are made, attention from the current GDP numbers has shifted. Downward data revisions are the new normal https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1831395064125210972  has pulled back due to a record high levels of debt and elevated prices. Meanwhile, visits to top Airlines, Cruise Lines, and Accommodation brands' websites is down ~5% YoY. Travel demand is slowing.   Trump Predicts ‘1929-Style Depression' if Kamala Wins  Wednesday, during a town hall event that aired on FNC's “Hannity,” former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president, warned viewers about a repeat of the 1929 Great Depression if Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democrat opponent, wins. Partial transcript as follows:  

As the U.S. economy continues to send mixed signals, our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist explains how markets are likely to oscillate between “soft landing” and “no landing” outcomes. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about the higher-than-normal uncertainty in economic data and its impact on markets. It's Tuesday, May 7th at 1:30 pm in New York. So let's get after it. In recent research, I've discussed how markets are likely to oscillate between the "soft landing" and “no landing" outcomes in today's late cycle environment. Continued mixed and unpredictable macro data should foster that back and forth, and last week was a microcosm in that respect. Tuesday's Employment Cost Index report came in stronger than expected, leading to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to nearly 4.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index turned down, falling to its lowest level since July of 2022. On Friday, the equity market rose sharply as bond yields fell on the back of a weaker labor report, while the ISM Services headline series fell to its lowest level since December of 2022. In our view, this uncertain economic backdrop warrants an investment approach that can work as market pricing and sector/factor leadership bounces between these potential outcomes. As such, we recommend a barbell of quality cyclicals which should outperform in a "no landing" scenario and quality growth, the relative winner in a "soft landing.” One might even want to consider adding a bit of exposure to defensive sectors like Utilities and Staples in the event that growth slows further. Meanwhile, last week's Fed meeting materialized largely as expected. Chair Powell expressed somewhat lower confidence on the timing of the first cut given recent inflation data, but he pushed back on the notion that the next move would be a hike which eased some concerns going into the meeting. The April Consumer Price Index released on May 15th is the next key macro event informing the path of monetary policy and the market's pricing of that path. As usual, the price reaction on the back of this release may be more important than the data itself given how influential price action has been on investor sentiment amid an uncertain macro set up. On the rate front, our view remains consistent with our recent research—the relationship between the 6-month rate of change on the 10-year yield and the S&P 500 price earnings multiple implies that yields around current levels are about 10 per cent headwind to valuation through the end of June but a tailwind thereafter, all else equal.Given the uncertainty and unpredictability of the economic data more recently, we think it's useful to look at the technicals for insight into what comes next. In early April, we highlighted that the breakdown in the S&P 500 from its well-defined uptrend was an important early warning sign that performance could become more challenged. Based on our analysis, this headwind to valuation is likely to remain with us through the end of June unless yields fall significantly in the near term. Assuming interest rates stay around current levels, stronger valuation support lies closer to 19 times earnings, which would also imply price support closer to the 200-day moving average or 4800.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.