Podcasts about PPI

Keith explores how real estate strategies have shifted from the 1980s to today and explains why investors need to adapt deal structures to changing interest rates, lending conditions, and market cycles.  He highlights current opportunities in new construction and builder rate buydowns, along with the long-term benefits of fixed-rate debt.  Keith is joined by economic futurist and author Richard Vague, who challenges conventional beliefs about inflation and interest rates and explains how government intervention, war, and supply constraints shape asset prices and leverage decisions. Together, they provide a big-picture framework for understanding how today's macro environment affects real estate investing decisions. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/621 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Join Mid South Home Buyers' one-time, free live webinar featuring Keith Weinhold on September 30 at GetRichEducation.com/MidSouth to learn how Memphis' economic expansion could create new real estate investment opportunities, and have your questions answered in real time. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Learn how dramatically real estate has changed from the 1980s through the late 2020s. We'll be sure that your approach is changing with it. Then a great guest and I discuss how war and future calamities will affect mortgage rates, inflation, and your real estate today on Get Rich Education. What if I told you that one of America's strongest cash flow real estate markets is also becoming the new brains and brawn behind AI? That city is Memphis, believe it or not. In September 30th, we're going to show you why the smart money is paying attention now, along with an investing opportunity you won't want to miss. Join me, Terry Kerr and Matthew Van Horn of Mid South Home Buyers, the largest turnkey company in Memphis with more than 6,000 homes under management, for a free live webinar, the likes of which I've never done before. We're going to look at what billions in new investment could mean for jobs, housing demand, neighborhood appreciation, and your portfolio. Everyone who attends live will also get exclusive access to the best deal terms Mid South has ever offered. Reserve your free seat at getricheducation.com/midsouth. Again, that September 30th. Don't say we didn't tell you. Save your spot at getricheducation.com/midsouth.   Speaker 1  1:35   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  1:51   Welcome to GRE from Cambridge, England, to Cambridge, Massachusetts, and across 188 world nations. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're inside Get Rich Education. You could be doing anything with your time. I'm grateful that you choose to listen to me every week. You know, real estate investors sometimes say, "Ah, there aren't any deals anymore. What they usually mean is the deal structure that they learned five years ago stopped working. There are always opportunities in real estate, but your approach changes with interest rates, lending standards, inventory, construction, government policy, and just the overall economic cycle. The best investors don't wait for yesterday's market to return. That's like someone still hoping for Blockbuster Video Store to reopen. They identify what today's market is offering instead. Just consider this historic retrospective on real estate investing from the Reagan administration to today, in 1981, the 30-year mortgage rate peaked above 18.6%. I mean, just imagine proudly telling your friends that you locked in at 17% before rates went higher. That mortgage needed its own defibrillator. By 1984, rates were still near 16%. The strategy then, the approach, was for a buyer to assume the existing owner's lower rate mortgage that they locked in a few years earlier, perhaps in the late 70s, that's how you got a good deal, assuming that existing owners lower-rate mortgage. You can't do that so easily today.   Keith Weinhold  3:50   By the late 80s and early 90s, the opportunity shifted from assuming attractive debt to buying distressed properties. The S and L crisis was upon us. Savings and loan failed lenders found themselves holding piles of distressed real estate, so investors bought foreclosures and REOs at discounts. They improved neglected buildings and then they repositioned them for income. You probably know that REO stands for real estate owned on a bank's balance sheet. All REO means is bank-owned property, but that's what you did. You found those, and then you scooped up a deal that way. As the 1990s progressed, interest rates declined, and loans also became really easy to obtain. We were tilting into the loosey-goosey easy lending environment. In the 90s, it was popular to buy an undervalued property, renovate it, raise the rent, and refinance it based on the improved value. That process later got a buzzy acronym and became known as the Burr strategy: buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat. By 2005, financing got more creative. This is when I was a new real estate investor. I remember obtaining what were known as 8015 five combo loans. This meant an 80% first mortgage, 15% second mortgage, and 5% down payment. You remember those? If you've been around for a while, you do. And see, this way you could avoid paying PMI, and you could control property with an astounding 20 to one leverage ratio due to that 5% down payment, but soon enough lending just got absolutely too creative and easy. The quiet lending party turned into a boisterous kegger, delivering the 2008 financial. crisis, and pretty soon I could no longer get any loans. From 2009 through the early 2010s, you could buy foreclosures and short sales at enormous discounts if you could find the loan.   Keith Weinhold  6:20   Financing was tough, but prices were super low. It might have even made sense to pay cash at that time. Fear was everywhere right after the global financial crisis. I mean, it really took courage to act when others were hiding under the bed. By 2020 and 2021, the opportunity changed from cheap property to cheap money. Mortgage rates dropped below an absurd 3% as a result of the COVID pandemic. You could lock up extraordinarily cheap debt for less than the inflation rate, and then let inflation nibble away at it like Pac-Man. Of course, a lot of us are still benefiting from that today, but that opportunity is long gone now. But it doesn't mean that deals are gone today. Where's the opportunity? One of the best ones is often found in new construction, large build. have got to keep moving their inventory as they build these homes because they have got to keep their crews busy. An unsold house for a builder-I mean-that produces as much income as an unplugged Bitcoin miner. Rather than make conspicuous price reductions, builders use their financial muscle to buy down mortgage rates for you, often in the 5% range or even lower.   Keith Weinhold  7:52   Builders might also offer you closing cost assistance, upgraded finishes, or other incentives that a single resale seller just can't match. So from the Reagan administration to today, over 45 years, the winning strategy just keeps morphing. It started out back then as assume the loan, over to buy distress, then to renovate and refi, then it was a creative financing wave, and then cheap debt, and today take the builders buy down. That's where we are. The mistake is deciding in advance what a deal is supposed to look like. The best deal structure changes, and of course, it's going to change again. The investor who keeps fighting the last war is always going to conclude that the opportunity has disappeared, but it hasn't. It's just changed clothing. Still, though, today's new purchases now-they're not as good as the deals that they were five years ago, but the best investors keep investing. They keep adding to their portfolio. It's what they've always done. Absolutely zero winning investors that are successful over time look back and say things like, "I didn't add anything to my portfolio during that 10-year span for this or that reason, the market changes, and you've got to adapt with it. That's a way to think about it. Take solace in knowing a few things. Deal structure changes over time are inevitable. And larger picture, you are investing in a product that is sustainable residential real estate in the form of long-term rentals. These entry-level properties are a scarce asset that people are going to continue to need. I mean, that's what we do here. Just compare. To the fads that we avoid around here, like NFTs, metaverse real estate, which we discussed on the show a few years ago, but said is highly dangerous, eye buying, value add apartment syndications, SPACs, or how about ICO funded altcoins? We don't chase the latest hot thing here at GRE. It is about what's sustainable, necessary, and cannot be easily disrupted by AI, and that's one reason that Get Rich Education is still standing strong after 52 episodes every year for almost 12 years now. Shortly, we're going to bring in a rather esteemed guest today on the future direction of interest rates and inflation. Interestingly, he believes that raising interest rates does not cool inflation, and that's contrary to popular belief. I'm going to press him on this and ask why, but first, our new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. He's only been on the job a few months now.   Keith Weinhold  11:07   He is gaining a reputation for not forecasting what they're going to do ahead of time, like his predecessor had. I guess I tend to like his disposition and the way that he communicates, I sense some pragmatism with Warsh, but gosh, it often seems that a new Fed chair gets off to a well liked start, and then they do something that lots of people criticize. Like, remember in 2004, late Fed Chair Alan Greenspan suggested more borrowers could benefit from adjustable rate mortgages shortly before rates rose and ARM resets became financial landmines. In 2007, Ben Bernanke said that subprime mortgage problems were likely to be contained. Oh, right after that, they helped trigger the global financial crisis, and more recently, the Jerome Powell gaffe, which I'll mention in the interview shortly. Here's what current Fed Chair Warsh says about inflation:   Kevin Warsh  12:14   For some households, businesses, and market professionals, five years of high inflation have left a mistaken impression, that's hard to shake, that the Fed's implicit inflation target was somehow above 2% Let me reiterate, there is no soft inflation target. There is no soft implicit target, not on this committee's watch. There's only a target, and it's 2%   Keith Weinhold  12:42   It's obvious that he is serious about getting inflation back down to 2% That tends to point toward interest rate increases. Let's discuss that and more with this week's brilliant guest. This week's guest is an economic futurist keynote speaker, and he's quite a popular author. He is chair of the board of the Public School Employees Retirement System. That's the largest public pension fund in Pennsylvania. Previously, the Pennsylvania governor appointed him as the secretary of banking and securities for the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, he's also the founder and president of several various organizations today, and he serves on several boards, including at the University of Pennsylvania and the School District of Philadelphia. I mean, I hardly know how he has time to do it all, but he made time for us today. Hey, it's great to welcome back Richard Vague.   Richard Vague  13:45   It's such an honor to be with you. I certainly enjoyed our last session, and it's really wonderful to be back.   Keith Weinhold  13:51   Well, and so much has changed since you were last here, Richard. First, why don't we pull back and talk to us about the general state of the national economy today, as you see it.   Richard Vague  14:04   ou know the economy was rocking along okay, and you know since you guys are such experts in real estate, I'll tell you one of the most important statistics, in my opinion, is the number of unsold homes, and by all rights, that number should be about 2 million homes. It's only about a million and a half. So there's a deficiency in our housing stock in the United States, which is, yeah, I think good news for the housing industry. It's always good to have a reason to have to grow. You may recall that in 2007, that had gotten up to four millinomes, which was a catastrophe, as we all know. So, it's the economic statistic I looked at first and most closely, and that was, you know, an okay number, and a lot of the things were going along. You know, not fabulous, but not terrible. Things were kind of moving. And all of a sudden now we have the war in Iran, and that's creating all sorts of problems for us, which you know I think you guys are concerned about. So I generally think the economy's been good, but there's a lot of dark clouds on the horizon.   Keith Weinhold  15:15   You know, Richard, I was recently sharing something remarkable with our audience. To your point, just since 2020, consider all the calamities that we've had: COVID, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, tariffs, and the Iran War. Just since 2020, what's the result of all that? Both stocks and residential real estate are near all time highs.   Richard Vague  15:42   Yeah, well, you know, one of the things that's true is that this is something I go to in great detail in my book Paradox. But the more debt there is, the higher asset prices go.   Keith Weinhold  15:53   Yeah.   Richard Vague  15:54   You know, in the case of housing, that broadly helps middle America. In the case of the stock market, the top 10% of the country owns 87% of the stocks, so that tends to go to the wealthiest instead of to the broad population. But yeah, those two things are at highs.   Keith Weinhold  16:12   You're touching on your well-received 2023 book, The Paradox of Debt, and you know, Richard, amidst all these calamities and all this potentially unprecedented level of government intervention that we've had-you know-it makes one wonder during the next crisis, which is inevitably going to happen, will the government just step in and provide relief again? And how would that look?   Richard Vague  16:38   You know, I think that's one lesson that government has learned indelibly. Way back in 1929, in the couple of years that followed, the government did not step in, and we saw what happened. And I think there's a generation of economists that understand the role of government in a calamity, and you know it's pretty simple. You know the government comes in and crops up financial institutions as they did in 2008, simply by providing the liquidity or buying the bad assets, or the government steps in with relief checks as they did in such a massive way in 2020. But the government has learned that at least to some degree, it needs to intervene. I can't imagine that ever not being true.   Keith Weinhold  17:26   Goshmright when you think about 2020s stimulus and how emergency lending facilities were set up, you had the payment protection program, stimulus checks, mortgage loan forbearance. It's just like this government won't let the asset holders fail.   Richard Vague  17:46   Well, yeah, you know, there's failure, and then there's something that's hurtful but not quite failure. You know, I can imagine that the government will be able to prevent, in some circumstances, certain asset prices going down some amount, it's actually fairly commonplace for stocks to go down 10 or 20% I can see real estate prices going down as they have in the commercial office space. Yeah, but yes, the government will step in when those things become extreme to prevent a true calamity.   Keith Weinhold  18:19   Of course, one consequence of the interventionism is elevated inflation. I know how you've talked before about how the level of inflation is higher than most people think. For example, you'll see today's CPI numbers in the mid threes. Talk to us some more about why inflation is higher than most people think.   Richard Vague  18:41   Well, I have studied inflation, you know, fairly diligently, and inflation really relates to the constriction of supply. And if you look over the 250-year history of the United States, we haven't had that many episodes of bad inflation, and they've always related to a constriction of supply. Most of them have occurred during a war when, for obvious reasons, you know, supplies are constricted. The big 1970s episode of inflation was because OPEC, which had so much more power back in those days, acted to you know punish the United States by constricting supplies, and the price of a barrel of oil went from $4 to $40 a barrel. Yeah, between 73 and 79. COVID was another instance where inflation related to constriction of supply. That was you know people couldn't go to the meat factory to cut meat. People couldn't go to the factories to build things, so all of a sudden our supplies were decimated, and we had a short burst of very painful inflation. Well, now we've got the straight of four moves, and that is impacting the price of oil. I think it's going to impact the price of oil more going forward because. Because we've been able to rely on reserves, both the U.S. has been able to rely on reserves, and China has been able to rely on even greater reserves. And you know we haven't seen the brunt of that, but unless something's resolved pretty quickly, I think in the fall and winter we're going to see even more problematic prices there. But we know agricultural prices and even the flow of commodities like wheat are constricted by the constraints in the Strait of Hormuz and, frankly, other waterways as well. Now, one of the things the numbers that you see reported tend to underreport inflation because it looks at a year-over-year number and doesn't really capture it if it's moved up more sharply in the last month or two. So we look at it on a month-by-month. We you know we break it down about as to as many parts as you can break it down into. But PPI, which is kind of a leading indicator on the eventual CPI PPI's producer price index, it was 4.7% this last month. That would suggest to you that things which are in the mid threes now, which is more higher than we want, you know, probably trending over. Maybe not next month, but you know, over the next three to six months, I'm not going to be surprised if the number's more in the four to five range. So, yeah, I think inflation's being somewhat underreported at the moment.    Keith Weinhold  21:29   The PPI being that harbinger of consumer prices, often four to six months down the road. And Richard, the last time you were here, when it comes to checking and controlling inflation, you said something so interesting. You said that higher rates, which is typically the response in order to try to quell inflation, higher rates actually do not lower inflation, and you did not get a chance to expand on that because we ran out of time. Tell us more about why higher rates do not reduce inflation.   Richard Vague  22:05   Well, I'm going to answer that a couple of ways. One of them is higher rates don't open the Strait of Hormuz.   Keith Weinhold  22:12   Right.   Richard Vague  22:13   You can put rates as high as you want, and it's not going to open the Strait of Hormuz.    Keith Weinhold  22:16   Chairman Warsch doesn't open the Strait. Yes, he doesn't get oil produce nothing.   Richard Vague  22:20   Strait of Hormuz.   Keith Weinhold  22:21   Yeah.   Richard Vague  22:21   And so we can do all we want to on raids, which is a very blunt instrument, and it's not going to address the supply constraints that are geopolitical and war related. So, if you want to curb inflation right now, there's two things to do. One of them's you know end the war with Iran, and the other is to kind of back off a lot of these tariffs that have become so problematic. I think there's a place for tariffs. I think there's certain things China's doing that you know a call for an appropriate level of tariffs. I'm not sure we should be big tariffs on Canada and some of these other places, which have the effect of increasing the cost of our farm equipment and cars and other things like that. So, if you really want to address inflation and address the things that truly underlie inflation, and if the second way I'd answer this is to say, go look at the debt, track the data from you know 1945 or 50. You know, we really look at the post World War II period as the place we really learn things from, and over that period, increased government spending has been accompanied by reduced interest rates and reduced inflation. So, reduced interest rates and reduced inflation have gone hand in hand, and rising interest rates and rising inflation have gone hand in hand, and it's a really easy thing to look at. We've got the data on our site, but there's only been three periods where you've had big shifts in government spending and rates. They're pretty easy to look at, and there's actually empirically an inverse relationship between rising interest rates and it's the opposite of what economists tell you.   Keith Weinhold  24:09   I think, in general, economists tell us that when inflation is high, you raise interest rates because consumer spending is about 70% of the economy, and those higher rates therefore incentivize people to be savers because they're getting paid a higher yield, keeping those dollars out of the economy, and they're less incentivized to be borrowers and expand the economy that way. I think in general that's why economists say that higher interest rates reduce inflation. Do you agree with that?   Speaker 2  24:40   Well, no, I don't, and the reason I don't is because when you look at the data, that doesn't happen. These are easy things to check, and what I would say to you is that rising interest rates increase costs, and you guys know that better than anybody in the world.   Keith Weinhold  24:56   With mortgages. Yeah.   Richard Vague  24:58   What do rising interest rates do to? Cost of your mortgage.   Keith Weinhold  25:02   Everything increased substantially.    Richard Vague  25:03   It has system prices at the grocery store. Well, the grocery stores have to pay our interest for their inventory. So the more intuitive and obvious thing is that rising interest rates increase prices. And by the way, if you and I were to go look at the data right now, which I look at almost daily, that we would see periods of rising interest rates correlate to periods of rising increased costs.   Keith Weinhold  25:29   Well, I'm glad you look at history because I often say here at Get Rich Education, if you want to know what's going to happen in the future, it's easy to have a hunch, but it's more important to look at history. Can you talk to us some more about how, over the long term, higher interest rates don't suppress inflation? If that's what you're saying,   Richard Vague  25:47   yeah. The greatest rise in inflation, you know, in my lifetime was the late 1970s.   Keith Weinhold  25:55   Yeah,   Richard Vague  25:56   and for the entire time that interest rates were going up, prices and inflation were going up, and it wasn't until interest rates started coming down that inflation started coming down. So we could look at any number of periods, and if you're going to argue the opposite, you need to go find me some data.   Keith Weinhold  26:15   Okay. Well, speaking in more modern times, in the last wave of inflation that we had, the CPI peaked at 9.1% in June of 2022. This is the whole famous Jerome Powell: inflation is only transitory. Oh shoot, no, it's not. I better hike rates. He did, and then inflation came down. Is it as simple as that cause in effect, or did something else make inflation come down post COVID.   Richard Vague  26:42   Inflation came down, and it came all the way down in July of 2022. It didn't come down gradually over six, 912, 18 months. You go look at the length monthly inflation. Inflation came all the way down in July of 2022, and stay has stayed down all the intervening period until very recently with the Iran War. July of 2022 was before there was a dramatic increase in interest rates.   Keith Weinhold  27:18   Right,   Speaker 1  27:19   that's simple.   Keith Weinhold  27:21   What caused inflation to come down? Then is it because supply began to arrive on the market again?   Richard Vague  27:27   People went back to work, started building things again.   Keith Weinhold  27:30   Producing.   Richard Vague  27:32   And the problem was folks had not been able to go to the factories and make things, and so we had a you know global supply deficit. Well, the nice thing about that is that you know money incends people to scramble back to work, make things again, and you know once they start doing that, and the Fed actually produces something they call the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. You can get it on the Fed site. If you look at it, it's supposed to be kind of at zero, and anytime supply chains are disrupted, it shoots up. And any you know, any time the opposite happens, you know there's overcapacity. It goes down, and you can see exactly when supply chains repair is happening. So go look at the. It's called the GSCPI. It's on the Fed side. You'll see that global supply chains had largely started to be dramatically repaired in the spring and summer of 2022, and naturally, supply and demand works. All of a sudden, supply starts showing up, and prices go to hell.   Keith Weinhold  28:39   We're talking with economic futurist author and Pennsylvania's governor-appointed former secretary of banking and securities Richard Vague, more when we come back on the affliction of inflation, what this means for real estate investors, and more. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. What if you got your mortgage loans the same place I get mine. You sure can at Ridge Lending Group NMLS 42056. They provided GRE listeners with more loans than anyone because Ridge specializes in investment property. They'll help you build a long-term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequal and even chat directly with President Caeli Ridge. While it's on your mind, start at ridgelendinggroup.com. That's ridgelendinggroup.com.   Keith Weinhold  29:29   Let me ask you something: If you've worked hard to build wealth, is your money positioned to actually support your goals? A lot of accredited investors leave capital sitting in cash because it feels safe, but inflation and missed income opportunities can quietly erode its value. Freedom Family Investments offers freedom notes for investors seeking structured income backed by real estate. It's a straightforward approach built on real assets, not speculation. In full disclosure, I'm an investor myself. What I like is that their team walks you through how it all works, so you can decide if it aligns with your portfolio and income goals. Every investment carries risk, and nothing is guaranteed. But with a track record of consistent, on-time investor payouts, they built real credibility. Go to freedomfamilyinvestments.com to book a clarity call or text family to 66866. That's family to 66866.    Dolph Derues  30:31   This is the king of commercial real estate, Dolph Derues. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold and don't quit your daydream.   Keith Weinhold  30:45   Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're talking with Richard Vague. Richard is the founder and president of so many organizations today. He's the author of several popular economic books. He chairs the board of the Public School employees retirement system. That's the largest public pension fund in Pennsylvania. He's in a lot of places at once, seemingly. Richard, we're talking about inflation before the break. What is the right inflation rate?   Richard Vague  31:16   Well, like I said, inflation. If you look at the entire 250-year span of the United States has it been an affliction that has affected us that often? It is political kryptonite. So when it does happen, it steers our consciousness, and it you know certainly affects your industry. But you know, if we look historically, the Fed targets 2% It's not a bad thing to target. We never really have achieved that level for any length of period. I think if you look at it over the past several decades and take out the high inflation periods, it probably has averaged closer to three. So I don't think two to 3% is an inappropriate level, and I kind of suspect it'll be a level that typifies our future once we get past, if and when we get past this more.   Keith Weinhold  32:09   Yes, not long ago, I was looking at the history of the CPI or the CPI's equivalent, and over the last 100 years, the rate is about 3.2% and we haven't hit that government-mandated 2% target, which is stated right on the Fed's website. We haven't hit that for any month in about five years now, and this asset inflation, as we know, this disproportionately enriches existing asset owners, and it widens this inequality. Something that's more recently been known as the K-shaped economy, can you talk to us some more about this exacerbating wealth inequality?   Richard Vague  32:48   Well, you hit the nail on the head. Something on the order of 80% of all the net wealth held by Americans is in the form of two things: stock and real estate. If you want to talk about wealth, it's those two things, and those two things, probably 60 or 70% of all of those in the U.S. are held by the top 10% I think it's a single-digit number of those that are held by the bottom 50% So you know, if inflation and debt growth push asset prices up over time. It is a mathematical inevitability that the rich get richer faster than those in the middle and at the bottom, and that simply means inequality will increase through time. I believe that's structural. Unless you address that in very some very specific way it will continue.   Keith Weinhold  33:43   Inflation affects real estate investors more than it does the average person because we borrow these big pools of money often at 75 to 80% loan to value, and in a sense, although we know it's bad for general society, and we do think about the K-shaped economy. Of course, inflation benefits us because it debases our debt. But even if you're not a real estate investor, even if you just own your own home, you know, Richard, I really think it begs the question: Is a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage one of the best forms of debt ever created for ordinary Americans?   Richard Vague  34:22   The 30-year mortgage, which was created, you know, that started on that path in the 1930 s for the very reasons we all know and love, which is getting Americans to own their own home, and has been, you know, a game changer for the country, and truly one of the great things that's been done, and I hope it's something that we continue to defend and preserve.   Keith Weinhold  34:46   Well, that brings up leverage and the prudent use of leverage. As real estate investors, we have this benefit of getting all these 30-year fixed-rate loans without the threat of a. Margin call being made. We're not borrowing over in the stock market. When you sign your loan documents, it doesn't say that the bank can call your note due at any time, but one could take it too far. And when it comes to debt, I think that really begs the question: Where does intelligent leverage end, and then dangerous leverage begin. What's the border?   Richard Vague  35:25   Well, you guys are experts, and I'm not. But the very simple premise is starts with not overpaying for the property to begin with. It is not an exact science, but generally speaking, I think we can tell when prices are relatively high in a given market and or a given year and relatively low, and you you'd always want to kind of be at least in the middle or somewhat on the low end before you acquire a property. So that's step number one, and then step number two is really just giving yourself a buffer, you know. We saw in the global financial crisis that real estate loans were being made in some cases at 100% of value. Yeah, and frankly, we saw at least some episodes within that folks borrowing over 100% of value, and certainly they were very happy when that happened. But we know there's zero margin for error when you do that, and perhaps even a negative margin for error when you do that. So I would think, you know, you guys know better than me, but you know, I hate to borrow it much more than like 90% of value, maybe 95% if it's a smaller asset and you have a government guarantee, and if you can do it at lower leverage, you know, 70 or 80% of value, that's not a bad thing to consider. I tend to think in the real estate world that you know I've seen many investors, particularly in the commercial space, buy things with lower leverage, 50 or 75% But then, as the asset proves itself, they work with their lender to increase the debt-to-value ratio, you know, and get more money at it over time as it becomes an increasingly proven asset. So they migrate their way from 75% to 95% over time. I think that's a logical path.   Keith Weinhold  37:20   That acronym Ninja Loans, which were popular from about 2000 to 2007, that acronym Ninja means no income, no job or assets, and you might still get a loan of 110% of the value of the property. It was profligately irresponsible. Well, Richard, in a moment, I want to ask if you have a resource that our audience can follow along with you if they would like to do so. But before I do that, do you have any last thing that you would like to talk about? Maybe something that I did not ask you, whether it has to do with the general economy or real estate or interest rates or inflations. Is there something else that we should know?   Richard Vague  38:00   What I would do is just endorse your podcast.   Keith Weinhold  38:04   Thanks.   Richard Vague  38:05   You're approaching this in a very intelligent way, and you're very empirical, and I think your listeners are doing themselves a service by continuing to follow what you do. That's a really reasonable, secure, and yet bold path towards creating wealth, then I think you're to be commended.   Keith Weinhold  38:27   Oh, I appreciate the endorsement. I'm always blown away at our following, but you have some resources worth following as well. Tell us about that.   Richard Vague  38:36   Well, we do. We have a weekly video ourselves that it's about a five-minute video, and you can go to our website, which is tycos.com. So t y c h o s.com, and you know we have data on the site. If you're a real geek, you could go in and you can look at our macroeconomic data. You know, but if you're not, you can sign up for the video, and we come out with what we hope is a short but relevant video once a week talking on some aspect of the economy, and you know we'd love to have folks join that if they're interested.   Keith Weinhold  39:10   Well, it's valuable. I suggest you, the listener, check that out. Richard oftentimes turns conventional economics on his head, just like he did with us today, talking about how if there's higher interest rates, that does not necessarily mean lower inflation. Richard, it's been valuable as always. It's been great having you back on the show.   Richard Vague  39:30   It's an honor to be with you. Keep up the great work.   Keith Weinhold  39:38   In this remote interview, I got a beautiful look over Richard's shoulders there on the screen at Center City, Philadelphia, in the ornate buildings there. I will be in that part of the nation again shortly. Big thanks to Richard Vague. If you're looking him up, it is spelled V-A-G-U-E. We've got a. A lot of terrific content coming up on the show over the next few weeks, including fresh takes on building your wealth that you've never heard before. Until next week, I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 3  40:18   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal, or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial, or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.    Keith Weinhold  40:46   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. getricheducation.com  

25/8 Buyback sui Treasury, la prima di Warsh a Jackson Hole, nuovi dazi (Canada e Cina) e sanzioni (Iran). La settimana del test sulla credibilità americana. Cosa significa per i vostri portafogli? Debasement Trade: dollaro in recupero, stabili Treasury e oro con Bitcoin sopra 80mila. Futures in verde dopo il sell-off di semiconduttori e memory della vigilia. Petrolio stabile dopo “warning” su sanzioni secondarie su digital asset, Tech, oro, aviazione e shipping. Il caso cinese. Nvidia prepara i conti e mette in produzione i chip Groq, Trump investe in Spacex, Anthropic prepara l'Ipo ma l'America rifiuta i datacenter. Sec: mandato di comparizione a banche Wall Street per caso Situational Awareness. ***Questo episodio è offerto da ⁠Scalable Capital ⁠Apri un conto con Scalable Capital e inizia a ricevere il 2,5% di interessi* sui tuoi risparmi:  https://it.scalable.capital/broker-online?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=qualityclick&utm_campaign=broker&c_id=QC59486e7f67706c777b517d435049607362766c747c5aS7541p&utm_term=983 Messaggio pubblicitario. Tasso lordo annuo variabile sulla liquidità depositata nel conto deposito non vincolato, composto da tasso base collegato al Tasso di Deposito BCE e tasso bonus discrezionale. Liquidità allocata presso banche partner e fondi monetari riconosciuti. Foglio informativo e condizioni su scalable.capital. Investire comporta dei rischi*** Asia prudente, Kospi giù con Samsung e Sk Hynix. Boj, verso altro rialzo. PPI sotto attese. In Cina recupera Alibaba, debacle Unitree. Europa: più mementum vs. Usa? Oggi dati su commercio e Ifo. Focus su auto e dazi al Canada. Bpm oggi cda straordinario su Ops Mps. Giorgetti incontra rappresentanti Siena. ISS a sostegno di Intesa, oggi si riunisce la Consob sotto Stazi. Unicredit, Weidmann apre a Orcel.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ask almost anyone how Ozempic works and you'll hear the same answer: it slows your stomach down. Dr. Ken Brown says that's the magician's waving hand.In this solo episode, the board-certified gastroenterologist walks through the research showing that roughly 99% of GLP-1 weight loss happens in three regions of the brain - and that the gut accounts for less than 1%. Which means the nausea, bloating, and heartburn people white-knuckle through aren't the thing making them lose weight.He maps the actual mechanism: the hypothalamus, where a misfiring hunger neuron acts like a broken fuel light telling you the tank is empty when it's full. The mesolimbic system, where dopamine explains why you find room for a Crumbl cookie after a full dinner - and why fMRI scans of that reward circuit go dark once someone starts a GLP-1. And the brainstem's area postrema, the ancient poison-detection system these drugs quietly hijack to produce fullness and nausea.Then the part he sees in clinic every week: why the pylorus tightens, why the migrating motor complex stalls, why the fundus stretches, and how that combination pools acid at the top of the stomach and pushes it into the esophagus. Plus the trial data showing most stomachs return to normal emptying by around 16 weeks, why a PPI often doesn't fix GLP-1 heartburn, and what he does instead for patients ready to quit a medication their gut can't tolerate.In this episode:- Why "it slows your stomach" is a misdirection- Your body's own GLP-1, and why these drugs act like an Amber Alert instead- The three brain regions doing 99% of the work- The broken fuel light: AgRP, POMC, and lifelong hunger- Dopamine, the dessert tray, and why this isn't willpower- The fMRI studies that made it visible- What the drugs actually do to the stomach — and the bathtub with the plug in it- Tachyphylaxis: why it improves around 16 weeks- Long-term GLP-1 use and SIBO risk- How to keep the weight loss without the gut miseryChapters: 0:00 The misdirection · 3:21 How your own GLP-1 works · 4:38 Three brain regions · 9:35 The broken fuel light · 11:08 Why you find room for the cookie · 13:11 The fMRI studies · 15:01 What happens in the stomach · 17:21 The bathtub analogy · 19:56 The trials nobody talks about · 21:31 Why 16 weeks matters · 23:29 SIBO and long-term use · 23:58 You don't have to suffer · 30:10 Bringing it togetherEducational content only - not medical advice. Talk to your physician about your medications.Learn more: regardingyourgut.com · kbmdhealth.comBrought to you by Atrantil Pro.

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Checkout The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/about/ Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Peter Boockvar, CIO at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners, to unpack recent inflation data and why yields remain resilient, with the curve steepening as the two-year dips while the 10-year holds around 4.65%. Boockvar argues the Fed must weigh PPI alongside CPI, noting persistent producer pressures and limited pass-through that squeezes margins and hiring, contributing to weak consumer confidence and “running to stand still” wages. They discuss why the S&P 500 continues to levitate, attributing much of earnings and market leadership to massive AI CapEx spending and its spillovers into financials. The conversation previews key retail earnings (Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, TJ Maxx, Walmart) and highlights strong energy stocks amid high gasoline prices and inventory drawdown risks. They also debate U.S.-China AI competition, pressure on OpenAI/Anthropic business models, and Japan's yen intervention, rising odds of a BOJ rate hike, and potential repatriation flows. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

The Inside Economics crew is joined by colleague Matt Colyar to run down the week's slate of inflation and consumer data. Following the recap and a brief detour about lettuce consumption, each puts forward probabilities that the Fed will cut rates, hike rates, or stay put in the near term. The numbers game leads to a discussion of the series the group would put on their Mount Rushmore – an exercise Mark is completely unfamiliar with and blames on the group's generational divide.  Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mortgage rates are moving after a big week of data. In this video I break down the new PPI inflation report, CPI, jobless claims, oil prices, and what it all means for your mortgage rate, plus what the Federal Reserve is likely to do at its next meeting.If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out where mortgage rates go from here, this is exactly what I do every day for my own clients.

China has ample room to introduce pro-consumption policies in the second half of the year, as consumer prices maintained a moderate overall increase in July, experts said.专家表示，由于7月居民消费价格总体保持温和上涨，中国在下半年推出促消费政策仍有充足空间。The country's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose 0.5 percent year-on-year last month, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.9 percent year-on-year.国家统计局发布的数据显示，作为衡量通胀主要指标的居民消费价格指数（CPI）上月同比上涨0.5%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.9%。There is considerable room for pro-consumption policies in the second half of the year, and price factors in particular will not be a major constraint on the central bank's potential interest rate cuts, said Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Orient Golden Credit Rating International.东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司首席宏观分析师王青表示，下半年促消费政策仍有较大空间，尤其是物价因素不会对央行可能的降息形成明显制约。Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said he expects pro-consumption policies to be stepped up in the second half of the year, with summer vacations and the National Day holiday boosting prices in tourism, accommodation and catering services.中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬预计，下半年促消费政策将加大力度，暑假和国庆假期将带动旅游、住宿和餐饮服务价格上涨。Data show that industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose 1.5 percent year-on-year in July, slowing by 0.2 percentage points from a month earlier, contributing about 0.37 percentage points to the CPI growth.数据显示，7月扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨1.5%，涨幅较上月回落0.2个百分点，对CPI涨幅贡献约0.37个百分点。Service prices increased 0.7 percent year-on-year, down by 0.1 percentage points from June, contributing about 0.36 percentage points to the CPI growth. Food prices fell 1.5 percent year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, dragging the CPI down by about 0.25 percentage points.服务价格同比上涨0.7%，涨幅较6月回落0.1个百分点，对CPI涨幅贡献约0.36个百分点。食品价格同比下降1.5%，降幅较上月收窄0.1个百分点，拖累CPI下降约0.25个百分点。On a month-on-month basis, the CPI edged down 0.1 percent in July, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.环比来看，7月CPI小幅下降0.1%，降幅较上月收窄0.2个百分点。NBS attributed the monthly decline to international market price fluctuations, which drove down domestic gasoline prices by 10.7 percent month-on-month, with the decline widening by 5.8 percentage points from June, pulling the CPI down by about 0.35 percentage points.国家统计局将环比下降归因于国际市场价格波动，导致国内汽油价格环比下降10.7%，降幅较6月扩大5.8个百分点，拉低CPI约0.35个百分点。Food prices remained flat month-on-month, 0.6 percentage points below the seasonal average. Service prices, which were flat in June, turned to a 0.4 percent monthly increase, pushing up the CPI by about 0.21 percentage points.食品价格环比持平，较季节性平均水平低0.6个百分点。服务价格由6月的持平转为环比上涨0.4%，推升CPI约0.21个百分点。The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee recently held a meeting on economic work. At the meeting, it was stressed that macro policies should be strengthened and more effective, disbursement of fiscal funds and bonds proceeds should be accelerated, and solid progress should be made in promoting large-scale equipment renewals and trade-ins of consumer goods.中共中央政治局近日召开经济工作会议。会议强调，宏观政策要更加有力有效，加快财政资金和债券资金拨付使用进度，扎实推进大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。The meeting also underscored the need to effectively expand domestic demand, increase the supply of quality goods and services in response to the consumption needs of different groups, and tap the potential of services consumption.会议还强调，要有效扩大国内需求，针对不同群体消费需求增加优质商品和服务供给，挖掘服务消费潜力。Local authorities have stepped up efforts to optimize trade-in policies. The southwestern city of Chongqing, for instance, has expanded its subsidy categories for home appliances and smart home products, covering nearly all aspects of daily life. Hunan province in Central China added 10 new categories to its trade-in program, including smart service robots, smart door locks, smart air purifiers and smart toilets.各地政府也在加大优化以旧换新政策的力度。例如，西南城市重庆已扩大家电和智能家居产品的补贴范围，几乎覆盖日常生活的方方面面。中部省份湖南在消费品以旧换新计划中新增了10个品类，包括智能服务机器人、智能门锁、智能空气净化器和智能马桶。NBS data also show that China's producer price index, which measures costs for goods at the factory gate, went up 3.5 percent year-on-year in July.国家统计局数据还显示，衡量工业品出厂价格的工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）7月同比上涨3.5%。Wen said that China's price trend is expected to improve further as domestic demand potential continues to be released and a lower comparison base comes into play.温彬表示，随着国内需求潜力持续释放以及低基数效应显现，中国物价走势有望进一步改善。"Although the transmission of PPI recovery to CPI will entail a lag, the equipment renewal and trade-in policies will gradually lift prices of durable consumer goods such as home appliances and automobiles," Wen added.他补充说：“尽管PPI回升向CPI传导存在一定滞后，但设备更新和以旧换新政策将逐步推高家电和汽车等耐用消费品的价格。”core CPI /kɔːr siː piː aɪ/核心CPIconstraint /kənˈstreɪnt/制约因素interest rate cuts /ˈɪntrəst reɪt kʌts/降息industrial consumer goods /ɪnˈdʌstriəl kənˈsjuːmə ɡʊdz/工业消费品contributing /kənˈtrɪbjuːtɪŋ/贡献（拉动）dragging down /ˈdræɡɪŋ daʊn/拖累month-on-month /mʌnθ ɒn mʌnθ/环比edge down /edʒ daʊn/小幅下降

Have a couple of softer US inflation prints taken a post-Summer Fed rate hike off the table? Did that CPI and PPI data vindicate Kevin Warsh's divisive approach to central bank communications? And what does the death of former Premier Zhu Rongji tell us about China's political economy today?Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss the US inflation and rate outlook, the angst at the long end of the Treasury yield curve, and why the pace and nature of reform in China today not only pales in comparison what was happening at the turn of the century, but could threaten global economic stability.Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory discusses her widely covered report on how much tax Andy Burnham could be seeking to raise in October's Budget. She explains how the potential tax increases compare with the controversial big Budget of 2024, which taxes could rise and what the impact could be on the UK economy.Related contentWhat taxes could Burnham raise to fund his policy ambitions?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-taxes-could-burnham-raise-fund-his-policy-ambitionsCapital Economics eventshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

P.M. Edition for Aug. 13. The U.S. is sending a fresh aircraft carrier to the Middle East amid growing concerns over living conditions aboard the carrier currently stationed there, the USS Abraham Lincoln. Plus, seven months into the U.S. energy blockade against Cuba, everyday people are struggling to sleep in the heat and to afford food as blackouts persist. We hear from Journal reporter José de Córdoba about what he is hearing from people across the country. And the proliferation of restaurant reservation apps have made it a nightmare for diners to get a table at a buzzy restaurant. Reporter Heather Haddon explains why restaurants keep doing business with the apps. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Brian Szytel reviews a broad market rally with the Dow up 69 points, the S&P 500 up two-thirds of a percent, and the Nasdaq up eight-tenths, alongside a modest bond rally as the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.65; WTI oil declined about 2.5% to $81. He highlights disinflationary data following a cooler CPI, with PPI coming in flat versus expectations of +0.2 and core PPI at 0.2 versus 0.3, putting core PPI at 4.2% year over year. Fed futures shifted, with September hike odds falling to about 32% from over 50% two days prior, while fundamentals remain strong despite valuation concerns near 22x. Weekly jobless claims were slightly worse at 209k versus 204k. He also discusses how inflation can erode sovereign debt burdens, risks of high debt-to-GDP (U.S. ~120%), and contrasts with Japan's 204% given domestic ownership of JGBs. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:46 Inflation Data Boost 01:55 Rates Expectations Shift 02:26 Valuations Versus Fundamentals 03:08 Weekly Claims And Geopolitics 03:33 Debt And Inflation Playbook 04:54 US Debt To GDP Context 05:35 Japan Comparison And Scale 06:24 Wrap Up And Next Episode Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt is stepping down from her role. Who will replace her? Mark can tell you! President Trump will be coming to Long Island tomorrow to tour law enforcement operations in Nassau County and is expected to cause a traffic nightmare. Iran is allegedly planning a massive attack on the USA right before the midterms, which could screw up President Trump and the Republicans' chances of winning the midterms. CBS may be leaving New York. A huge scheme involving Chinese nationals who paid up to $100,000 each to marry U.S. citizens to obtain a green card has been uncovered. Prosecutors are calling it one of the largest schemes in history! AOC and her longtime boyfriend are allegedly broken up, and her eggs are frozen. Luigi Mangione may have a plea deal coming tomorrow in his case, and Mark explains. NYC Commissioner Julie Menin is challenging claims that crime in NYC has gone down. Zohran Mamdani will be taking a vacation to upstate New York starting next week. Mark interviews economist Steve Moore. Steve breaks down the recent PPI and CPI numbers, which came in line with economists' expectations, but do all Americans feel it? The guys talk about the recent state of the economy. Taxes nowadays are the number one expense that many families are paying, topping costs for food, clothes, and more. Coal could be a huge revenue maker for the American economy. Data centers in the USA are growing, and Steve explains how this is happening. More homeless shelters are spreading throughout New York. Bob Iger and Jared Kushner's family member just teamed up and bought the Los Angeles Lakers for over a billion dollars. Did you know Howard Stern had a rule working on his show for women? Yup, he sure did, and Mark explains what it is! Bill Gates' daughter is getting in trouble for Cookie Stuffing, which is a deceptive form of affiliate marketing fraud to rig a user's browser without their knowledge or consent. Elon Musk is set to build the world's largest building in Texas. Mark interviews WOR weeknight host Jimmy Failla. The Mets are doing a dating night soon! Who will be replacing Karoline Leavitt as the Press Secretary? Jimmy thinks maybe it would be Trump, in a joking way! Jimmy updates us on his show. 

Luigi Mangione may have a plea deal coming tomorrow in his case, and Mark explains. NYC Commissioner Julie Menin is challenging claims that crime in NYC has gone down. Zohran Mamdani will be taking a vacation to upstate New York starting next week. Mark takes your calls! Mark interviews economist Steve Moore. Steve breaks down the recent PPI and CPI numbers, which came in line with economists' expectations, but do all Americans feel it? The guys talk about the recent state of the economy. Taxes nowadays are the number one expense that many families are paying, topping costs for food, clothes, and more. Coal could be a huge revenue maker for the American economy. Data centers in the USA are growing, and Steve explains how this is happening.

Steve breaks down the recent PPI and CPI numbers, which came in line with economists' expectations, but do all Americans feel it? The guys talk about the recent state of the economy. Taxes nowadays are the number one expense that many families are paying, topping costs for food, clothes, and more. Coal could be a huge revenue maker for the American economy. Data centers in the USA are growing, and Steve explains how this is happening.

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer, and David Faber discussed this morning's PPI print, with wholesale prices coming in flat in July, below expectations. They then turned to tech, bringing in Cisco Chair & CEO Chuck Robbins to discuss the company's latest earnings; shares fell despite a beat and record revenue. Later in the hour, Cramer discussed Tapestry's rough quarter after the stock dropped double digits following the open. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ben and Tom discuss producer prices coming in cooler than expected for a second straight month with headline PPI flat month-over-month and core PPI easing to 4.2% year-over-year, Tom's argument that interest rates remain too high given the $40 trillion national debt after the 10-year auctioned at the highest rate since 2007 and the 30-year approaching its highest since 2001, a breakdown of how portfolio management fees and retail margins are skewing the services component of inflation data, Lenovo surging 20% as AI-related revenue climbs to 35% of total revenue, and Lambda's new $926 million amortizing loan priced at 300 basis points over SOFR as an early example of asset-backed financing structures emerging to fund AI infrastructure buildouts.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

July CPI data was tame, but PPI this morning provides a look at wholesale prices. Results could affect yields after Fed rate hike odds fell Wednesday. Retail sales are due Friday. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for their own particular situation before making any investment or trading decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. For illustrative purposes only. Individual situations will vary. Not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Investing involves risk, including, for some products, more than your initial investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed-income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.  Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0131-0826) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

US equities were mostly higher in Thursday afternoon trading. Some of the modest upside was tabbed to the rate rally that followed the cooler July core PPI print. However, the market is pricing ~34% chance of a September rate hike, little changed from Wednesday.

PPI continued the trend CPI by signaling inflation is cooling. Charles Schwab's Kevin Gordon expects the Fed to hold interest rates in its next meeting with current data in mind. He adds that equities have opportunity to rally even in the face of a hawkish Fed, so long as other economic indicators stay strong. Jim Ferraioli doesn't expect many macro movers to impact Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for the time being. He does expect the midterm elections to serve as the next key catalyst for the space.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

More reprieve for investors worried about inflation hit the tape Thursday morning when PPI came in cooler than expected. Kevin Hincks takes a deep dive into the report and points to key metrics signaling that inflation is cooling and lowering the chances for an interest rate hike from the Fed. He walks investors through his expectations for the Fed and the direction of rates long-term as jobless claims sees a slight uptick. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

As investors continue to digest Wednesday's CPI print, Thursday's PPI will show whether the trend the former set will continue. Tom White offers his takeaways from the CPI print and ways PPI will confirm or push back the inflation cooling narrative. He turns to earnings movers in Cisco (CSCO) as the stock pulls back on a stronger-than-expected report. Cerebras (CBRS) sold off sharply after its second earnings report since the IPO. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Cooling inflation and a softer labor market are giving the Federal Reserve more room to remain patient, even as investors debate whether Kevin Warsh's Fed could still deliver another rate increase. Chris Hodge, chief economist at Natixis, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hodge explains why recent CPI and PPI data reinforce his view that disinflation remains intact, with tariff effects largely having passed through, housing pressures moderating and wage growth consistent with inflation moving closer to the Fed's target. The group discusses why Natixis expects the Fed to remain on an extended hold, how recent weakness in the labor market could increase policymakers' tolerance for above-target inflation and what changes may emerge from Warsh's reviews of the central bank's inflation framework and data. They also examine the housing outlook, the approaching midterm elections and why divided government may constrain major fiscal legislation without materially changing the longer-term US deficit trajectory. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

En el episodio de hoy Valentina Orduz y Juan Manuel de los Reyes analizaron el déficit fiscal de Estados Unidos, que en julio alcanzó $432 mil millones de dólares, el mayor para ese mes en la historia, y explicaron por qué más déficit significa más emisión de bonos y más presión sobre los rendimientos. Luego abordaron el PPI, el índice de precios al productor. Por último, exploraron el caso de SK Hynix, líder mundial en memoria HBM para IA y su plan de expansión por $720,000 millones de dólares.

In this episode, Matty A. and Ryan Breedwell analyze the most significant economic events shaping the market, from the possibility of an Iran peace deal to corporate America's record-breaking S&P 500 earnings beat. They examine the persistent housing affordability crisis, exploring how 30-year mortgage rates and changing generational habits are impacting homeownership.The discussion dives deep into the latest tech and private equity movements, including Morgan Stanley's $600 price target for SpaceX and Berkshire Hathaway's massive pivot into Google and home builders. With inflation data looming and job numbers facing continuous downward revisions, this episode provides critical insights for navigating today's complex investing environment.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDIran conflict peace negotiations and potential stock market reactionsCPI and PPI inflation data expectations and Federal Reserve rate policiesSpaceX market valuation and Morgan Stanley's $600 bull case price targetCoreWeave earnings reports and upcoming technical resistance levelsCorporate America's unprecedented 29.2% aggregate S&P 500 earnings beatUS housing affordability crisis and increasing 30-year fixed mortgage ratesBerkshire Hathaway deploying cash into Alphabet and Taylor Morrison HomePrivate equity firms holding 33,575 unsold businesses amid high borrowing costsKEY TAKEAWAYSHistorically high S&P 500 earnings beats indicate corporate margins are much stronger than Wall Street analysts anticipated.Continuous downward revisions in the US jobs report suggest ongoing economic cooling, which may take future Federal Reserve rate hikes off the table.High interest rates remain the crucial linchpin suppressing housing supply and affordability, leaving Gen Z increasingly sidelined from the American dream.Berkshire Hathaway's recent $6.8 billion investment in a home builder signals institutional confidence in the long-term necessity of new housing construction.Massive private equity portfolios backed by private credit are facing severe liquidity challenges as borrowing costs remain elevated.CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONImagos Income Fund: Text "INCOME" or "DEALS" to 844-447-1555 to learn more about Matty A's private debt fund targeting 10% fixed returns paid out monthly.Visit skylineocresidences.com to discover luxury condo ownership at Skyline OC, Orange County's tallest residential tower. Get a free financial audit on your investment portfolio by texting X-Ray to 844-447-1555

On Wednesday, August 12, Brian Szytel reports a quiet, mixed market day as July CPI came in essentially in line with expectations, leaving stocks and bonds little changed (Dow flat, S&P up 0.25%, Nasdaq up 0.5%, 10-year unchanged). Headline CPI rose 0.1% month over month to 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2%, with medical care, airfares, used vehicles, and shelter contributing. Fed September hike odds fell from about 50% to 42% ahead of upcoming PPI data and Jackson Hole. He notes inflation is moving in the right direction slowly, while employment signals are mixed (unemployment 4.1%, weaker JOLTS and slightly missed nonfarm gains). Addressing a question on baby boomers supporting children, he says wealth transfers are not money creation and are a “closed loop,” though lower labor force participation and skills could hurt productivity. 00:00 Market Recap 00:33 CPI Breakdown 01:43 Fed Outlook Ahead 02:30 Jobs And Softening Data 03:01 Boomer Wealth Question 04:07 Is It Inflationary 05:05 Wrap Up From Florida Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today we are thrilled to welcome Mike Fey, Co-Founder and CEO of Island.io, for a robust discussion on AI, technology, and the future of work. Mike is a seasoned technology executive and entrepreneur with deep experience in enterprise software and cybersecurity. Founded in 2020, Island is reimagining the enterprise browser as a platform that brings together access, security, and productivity, enabling employees to move faster while giving organizations the governance and control required at enterprise scale. We were pleased to hear Mike's perspective on this rapidly evolving landscape. In our conversation, Mike first shares Island's origin and founding premise: to improve the knowledge worker's experience while building security into the platform rather than adding it as an afterthought. We explore Island's philosophy of enabling employees to move quickly and innovate within an enterprise framework of security and governance, extending controls designed for human knowledge workers to “agentic knowledge workers,” and using the browser as an enterprise platform to replace legacy IT infrastructure and potentially consolidate portions of the security stack. Mike shares his perspective on why expectations for near-term enterprise AI ROI are often unrealistic and why successful adoption requires more than simply giving employees access to AI. We discuss the importance of creating a secure environment in which employees can experiment, build, share, and deploy AI while choosing the right AI model for the job and finding the right mix of sovereign, enterprise-controlled, and cloud-based AI. We examine how the valuable asset in AI may increasingly be the proprietary context, data, and workflows feeding models rather than simply the resulting work product. Mike explains how Island can give enterprises visibility into where data originated, who or what accessed it, why an action occurred, and how those capabilities become increasingly important as agents begin interacting with other agents. We explore Island's “tactically strategic” approach to enterprise adoption, starting with practical, self-funding opportunities to simplify the technology stack and reduce costs while building the foundation for broader AI adoption. Mike discusses M&A as one example, where establishing a secure shared environment can allow companies to begin realizing value from an acquisition before completing the full IT integration. We discuss what boards should be asking about AI, how AI adoption is currently increasing worker capability rather than simply eliminating jobs, and the challenge of scaling AI across large organizations. Mike describes adoption as a “crawl, walk, run” process and argues that most companies remain in the crawl stage. He explains why companies shouldn't wait to establish AI capabilities and shares examples of organizations using AI not simply to improve existing processes but to transform their business models. We end the session with Mike's compelling view that AI adoption is a leadership obligation: companies should prepare their employees to remain capable and competitive in an AI-shaped economy rather than allow their skills to become outdated. It was a riveting discussion and we greatly appreciate Mike's passion for the industry and his enthusiasm for the possibilities. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion with observations on the fixed income market, noting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was trading at ~4.7% ahead of Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI reports, which could help shape expectations for the Fed's next interest rate decision. In equities, the DJIA and S&P 500 were each down approximately 30 basis points. With second quarter earnings season largely complete, Mike highlighted Intel's $20 billion equity offering to fund capital expenditures, which was reportedly oversubscribed by more than five times. Turning to energy, WTI crude oil had risen approximately $5/bbl this week to roughly $83/bbl, reflecting growing skepticism that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will fully normalize in the near term. Mike noted that Iran-related policy has been a key driver of oil price volatility over the past two months. The energy sector had gained approximately 5% this week alongside higher crude prices. With second quarter energy earnings essentially complete, Mike wrapped by reviewing key themes across oilfield services, E&Ps, integrated oil majors, refiners, midstream, and power and electric utilities. Robby Kester and Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added their valuable technology perspectives and questions throughout the conversation.

Cooling labor data, persistent inflation concerns and the strength of the U.S. consumer are putting the economy under the microscope. Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman on this week's IBKR Market Minute to discuss the latest jobs numbers, CPI and PPI, retail sales, Fed expectations and the market forces investors should be watching next.

Mortgage rates are reacting to this week's inflation data, with oil prices above $82 a barrel and a weak ADP jobs report already moving the market. Dan Frio breaks down what CPI, PPI, and the Federal Reserve's next move mean for your mortgage rate, whether you're buying, refinancing, or watching from the sidelines.Read more on the blog: https://solvitmortgage.com/blogIn this episode:

SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · 11 AUGUST 2026Jacki Neumann, Head of Capital Markets at Sharesies Note: Filmed Monday 10 August ↑ WHAT’S UP — The S&P 500 hit a new record close to finish the week up 3.6%, the Nasdaq up 5.2% in its best week since May, and the ASX 200 climbing 3.2% to its own new record. Strong corporate earnings helped power the rally: Palantir jumped 29.5% after 93% revenue growth, AMD posted record quarterly revenue of US$11.5 billion, and SpaceX surged around 23% on its first public results. ↓ WHAT’S DOWN — ResMed shares fell after a mixed underlying result. Oil was choppy, falling initially on hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, only to climb later in the week as Iran moved to restrict US and Israeli vessels. ! BIGGEST SURPRISES — The US July jobs report shed 23,000 jobs against expectations to gain around 80,000, even as the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Markets read it as easing Fed pressure, cutting September rate-hike odds to 41% from 55%. ◎ WHAT TO WATCH — The RBA decides on Tuesday, with a hold at 4.35% expected, and US July CPI and PPI will test whether price pressures are easing after the oil run-up. Reporting season continues with RocketLab, Cisco and Super Micro in the US, and CBA, ANZ, Westpac, QBE, IAG and Suncorp locally. ◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Records across Wall Street and the ASX show a firmly risk-on market, powered by strong earnings and tentative signs of easing Middle East tensions. Appetite remains for the AI and growth trade, demonstrated by Palantir, AMD, and SpaceX. But unsettled oil prices and the impact of a soft US jobs print sit in the background as potential swing factors. Disclaimer: Sharesies Market Movements is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. This video is general market commentary and educational in nature. It is not financial advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is current at the time of recording and may be subject to change. We do not provide recommendations and nothing in this video should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you require personal financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions, including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers, are available on our relevant Australian or NZ website.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mortgage rates are reacting to a soft jobs report, oil prices holding under $80, and a Federal Reserve meeting just 37 days away. I break down CPI, PPI, unemployment at 4.2%, and what all of it means for your rate this week.Here's what's driving the mortgage rate market today:The June jobs report just showed 20,000 jobs lost while unemployment somehow held at 4.2%, and I explain why the market is reading that as a crack in the labor market. This week we get two inflation reports that matter a lot more than usual. Wednesday brings CPI, both core and headline, with core inflation expected to tick up to 0.2% after coming in flat last month. Thursday brings PPI, the producer side, expected to rise to 0.2% after a negative 0.3% reading last time. I also walk through why oil is the number to watch right now. As long as oil stays under $80 a barrel we're in a manageable range, but if it pushes toward $90 to $100 a barrel that is when inflation spikes and mortgage rates jump with it. On top of all of that, I cover the Iran conflict overhang, the Dow Jones move from 50,000 to 54,000 since the war started, and why the Fed is now sitting at a 54% chance of holding the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at their next meeting in 37 days instead of cutting or hiking.Get the full breakdown and more market analysis on the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blogCHAPTERS (estimated, please verify against final edit) 0:00 Jobs report reaction and today's rate chart 1:35 What the Fed is watching: unemployment at 4.2% and GDP 2:35 This week's CPI and PPI reports explained 4:20 Why oil under $80 is the number that matters 5:35 Fed meeting in 37 days and today's rate forecast

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look at some of Europe's biggest energy companies on their recent performance. In Asia – a look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look at some of Europe's biggest energy companies on their recent performance. In Asia – a look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A new drug is approved for ROS1 NSCLC after a prior TKI (with some data in patients after 2 TKIs). Zidesamtinib...easy for you to say. Also, a post hoc analysis of PACIFIC provides some of the best evidence yet of the detrimental effect (?) of PPI use prior to ICI use. Download the Oncology Learning Companion: https://www.kelleycpharmd.com/learning-oncology-companion-oncopharm

Mortgage rates are on edge today as oil prices spike and the Federal Reserve meets to decide what happens next with interest rates. I'm breaking down what's driving today's move and what it means for your rate.Today isn't a normal day. Iran struck another ship, oil jumped 6%, and the Federal Reserve is meeting this afternoon to figure out where the federal funds rate goes from here. I walk through the bond market, the inflation data, the jobs numbers, and exactly what I'm telling my own clients to do right now if they're under contract, sitting on the sidelines, or thinking about refinancing.In this video I cover: • Why oil prices jumping 6% in one day is hitting the mortgage bond market • What the Federal Reserve actually controls and how it ripples into your rate • The real CPI, PPI, and jobs numbers the Fed is watching this week • Why inflation is dropping when you strip out oil and energy • What I'm advising clients to do today: lock, wait, or holdRead the full breakdown on my blog: Fed Rate Call During a Global Crisis: Mortgage Rate Snapshot Today — https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/fed-rate-call-global-crisis-mortgage-rate-snapshot-todayAnd for more on where rates could head next: CPI Drops, Jobs Cool: Is a Fed Rate Cut Finally Coming? — https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/cpi-drops-jobs-cool-is-a-fed-rate-cut-finally-comingCHAPTERS 0:00 Oil spikes, Iran conflict, and today's Fed meeting 1:30 How the Federal Reserve actually controls rates 3:15 CPI, PPI, and the inflation data the Fed is watching 5:45 Jobs numbers and where the cracks are showing 7:30 What I'm telling my clients to do right now

Mortgage rates are holding steady heading into tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting, but oil sitting at $80 a barrel could change everything fast. Today I break down the jobs report, cooling inflation data, and why home prices are up 1.6% year over year despite the crash predictions.There's a 70% chance the Fed does nothing at tomorrow's meeting, but that's not the full story. Between a softening ADP jobs report, inflation numbers coming in cooler than expected, and oil prices tied directly to the ongoing conflict overseas, there's a lot moving underneath the surface that could shift your rate in either direction. Here's exactly what I'm watching and what I'm telling my own clients to do right now.

This week, we examine the latest inflation, consumer, and housing data, along with the sharp increase in stock margin borrowing. While both CPI and PPI came in below expectations, much of the decline was concentrated in energy prices. Given the recent rise in oil prices, those subdued inflation readings may prove temporary. Retail sales growth also slowed in the latest month, reflecting lower gasoline prices and broader weakness in energy related spending. Housing data continued to point to a cooling market. Even housing starts, which exceeded expectations at the headline level, revealed underlying softness upon closer examination. Finally, we discuss the historic surge in stock margin borrowing during April and May and consider how the rapid buildup in leverage may be contributing to the recent sell off in semiconductor stocks.

Matt Farah has some spicy thoughts on his drive in the new Ferrari 849 Testarossa Spider; he and Zack Klapman discuss the terrifying situation between Flock cameras and Range Rovers; the Manx is even better now; and Patreon questions include: When will Audi etron GTs bottom in price? Quirk battle: Pajero vs Jimny Should a seller supply the PPI? Should this Canadian trade their car for a motorcycle? Mercedes used to be the tech leader. Who is it now? Common car enthusiast financial mistakes. The car with the most diverse fan base is... The OEM we think would "win" the Goodowood FOS Ugly cars that drive great Do nannies REALLY ruin the thrills? Is carbon fiber trim the boomer chrome of our time? And more! Recorded July 15, 2026 Tickets now on sale for our LIVE Show, Aug. 18 in Irvine with Richard Porter and Jonny Smith:https://improv.com/irvine/event/the+smoking+tire+live+feat.+smith+and+sniff+with+matt+farah%2c+zack+klapman%2c+richard+porter%2c+and+jonny+smith/14213624/#showinfo Show Notes DeleteMe Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to www.joindeleteme.com/ TIRE and use promo code TIRE at checkout. Casper Right now, save up to 20% on mattresses and up to 25% on everything else when you go to Casper.com. #sponsored Avants Go to Avants use code TST for 10% off your membership! Use Off The Record! and ALWAYS fight your tickets! For a 10% discount on your first case go to https://www.offtherecord.com/TST Want your question answered? Want to watch the live stream, get ad-free podcasts, or exclusive podcasts? Join our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thesmokingtirepodcast Instagram:https://www.Instagram.com/thesmokingtirehttps://www.Instagram.com/therealzackklapman Enter to WIN our AMAZING 2025 Porsche 911 Turbo S!! https://www.dreamgiveaway.com/tickets/porsche?promo=SMOKINGTIRE Promo Code Offer: Get 4X bonus tickets with any donation of $25 or more. With every donation you are helping benefit some wonderful veterans' and children's charities. Podcast Promo Code: SMOKINGTIRE Want your question answered? Want to watch the live stream, get ad-free podcasts, or exclusive podcasts? Join our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thesmokingtirepodcast Use Off The Record! and ALWAYS fight your tickets! Enter code TST10 for a 10% discount on your first case on the Off The Record app, or go to http://www.offtherecord.com/TST. Watch our car reviews: https://www.youtube.com/thesmokingtire Tweet at us!https://www.Twitter.com/thesmokingtirehttps://www.Twitter.com/zackklapman Instagram:https://www.Instagram.com/thesmokingtirehttps://www.Instagram.com/therealzackklapman

Group Chat News is back with the hottest stories of the week. The guys wrap the World Cup and get into the stories everyone's talking about — Kai Cenat's Streamer University getting a million applications, the betting markets that now let you wager on everything from flight delays to presidential speeches, Delta stripping down business class, and the sinkhole that swallowed one of LA's busiest streets. This week's Group Chat covers: World Cup wrap — Spain vs Argentina, corporate ticket takeovers, and why game times were a miss A 100-year-old water main breaks and opens a sinkhole on Sunset Blvd, shutting down the heart of West Hollywood Fanatics Fest takes over NYC — the $90 million spend and the new all-in-one sports app projected to do $14 billion Why American sports franchises are the new safe asset class — "I'd rather own a football team than US Treasuries" The collectibles boom, GameStop's bid for eBay, and cards as the new art market Betting on everything — Polymarket, flight delay markets, and the Trump teleprompter scandal The Bryce Harper, FanDuel and Cameo controversy explained Delta launches Basic Business — business class up to $1,000 cheaper, but no lounge, no food, no perks IShowSpeed becomes the face of the World Cup and the biggest content creator on Earth Kai Cenat's Streamer University — one million applications, 120 spots, and why kids want it more than Harvard Inflation finally cools — CPI and PPI come down, and Marc Andreessen joins the new Fed task force The Ozempic economy — grocery sales fall, snacking declines, and the lightening of America And much more! Drop us a 5-star rating and a review if you're rocking with the show.

The financial health of the American consumer is top of mind these days, and no one better to discuss it with than Emmaline Aliff of Equifax and our own consumer maven, Mike Brisson, join the podcast to dig into the evidence. While the consumer sector as a whole remains resilient, the story differs dramatically across the thrivers, the strivers, and the survivors. We also unpack a week full of inflation data with Matt Colyar, who helps us sort through the numbers and their implications for the economic outlook. Guest: Emmaline Aliff, Advisory Leader, Equifax Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest CPI and PPI reports and explains why cooler inflation headlines do not necessarily mean interest rate cuts are back on the table. Learn why falling energy prices are distorting the data, what businesses should actually be watching, and how inflation is affecting consumers differently across the economy. If you're trying to make pricing, budgeting, or investment decisions, looking only at the headline numbers could lead you in the wrong direction. Lauren explains what matters most and what to watch next as the Fed weighs its next move. Will one month of encouraging inflation data change the Fed's outlook, or is the bigger picture telling a different story?

Bitcoin News and Notes, Space X, Markets, CPI &PPI reports and more.

We are excited to share this Special Edition featuring Senator Alan Armstrong (R-OK). Senator Armstrong, alongside Senators Rick Scott (R-FL), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Katie Britt (R-AL), and James Lankford (R-OK), recently introduced the American Energy and Mineral Infrastructure Act. The legislation seeks to modernize the federal permitting process for energy and mineral infrastructure projects while preserving strong environmental protections. We were delighted to host Senator Armstrong to discuss his experience in Washington, the motivation behind the legislation, and what it could mean for the future of U.S. infrastructure development. In our conversation, Senator Armstrong discusses his transition from leading Williams Companies to serving in the U.S. Senate and explains why permitting reform has become one of the country's most pressing economic and national security priorities. He walks us through the American Energy and Mineral Infrastructure Act, outlining how the legislation seeks to streamline federal permitting, reduce unnecessary litigation, provide greater regulatory certainty for project developers, and create a more predictable process for building critical infrastructure. We explore how permitting delays increase costs for consumers, discourage private investment, and threaten America's economic and technological competitiveness as electricity demand accelerates alongside AI and data center growth. Longer term, it's not an overstatement to say failing to address these issues will also threaten the country's national security. Senator Armstrong shares his perspective on building bipartisan support for permitting reform, maintaining an energy source-neutral approach, and ensuring that pipelines, transmission lines, nuclear facilities, and other critical infrastructure can be built in a more timely and predictable manner. We touch on the growing importance of grid reliability, the intersection of permitting reform and national security, and why he believes the current Congress has a unique opportunity to address these long-standing challenges before rising power demand and infrastructure constraints become even more acute. The discussion was especially timely as the push is on to get permitting reform done during this Congress. The Senator emphasized, “Who in the world would oppose this? We're going to be asking that question exactly on the floor tomorrow as we're starting to put pressure on moving this bill forward.” We greatly appreciate Senator Armstrong for joining us and for his leadership on this important issue. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted key market developments, noting that favorable inflation data has supported markets this week. Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI reports released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to roughly 4.55% and reduced near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. In commodities, Brent and WTI crude oil prices appeared to have temporarily stabilized at approximately $85/bbl and $80/bbl, respectively, despite President Trump's escalation of military strikes against Iran. On the equity front, the S&P 500 was up about 0.25% on the day, supported by the favorable PPI report. Telecom was the top-performing sector, gaining roughly 2.5% to 3.0%, led by Google, following reports that Berkshire Hathaway had taken a large position in the stock. He concluded by highlighting the significant value creation achieved during Alan Armstrong's tenure as CEO of Williams Companies. Veriten Senior Advisor Bill Flores also joined the discussion, offering valuable perspective on the legislative process and the dynamics in Washington.

With markets back in rotation mode, OptionsPlay's Tony Zhang says he's watching how that rotation plays into a climb of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with CPI and PPI pointing to an inflation downtrend. He says hyperscalers need to show earnings growth to restore long-term investor confidence in tech. Tony highlights one of those hyperscalers: Amazon (AMZN), which he likes due to its recent outperformance. He sees a similar trend in Alibaba (BABA) but warns his bullishness here is more speculative. Tony offers example options trades for Amazon and Alibaba. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

On Wednesday, July 15, Brian Szytel reports modest market gains (Dow +150, S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%) amid a positive early Q2 earnings tone, though Middle East tensions temper sentiment and momentum tech (semis and software) has been pressured. He highlights notable strength in financials, citing rising lending, M&A, and capital markets activity, with investment banking up about 30%, capital markets up over 15%, and financial earnings up over 6%, viewing this as a forward-looking sign of economic confidence. The day's key news was a second straight cooler-than-expected inflation report: PPI fell 0.3% vs flat expected and core rose 0.2% vs 0.4% expected, implying a favorable PCE read. He discusses potential market impacts if Strait of Hormuz disruption persisted (higher oil, inflation, rates; pressure on long-duration assets; benefits to U.S. production), while noting futures imply ~$75 oil in a year, and adds a strong Empire State manufacturing print (15.6 vs 8.4 expected). 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:23 Earnings Season Pulse 01:00 Financials Lead Strength 02:26 Cooler Inflation Data 03:40 Hormuz Risk Scenario 05:15 Futures Reality Check 05:28 Manufacturing Beat Wrap 05:57 Final Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This week we had the exciting opportunity to travel to Lake Forest, California, to tour TAE Technologies' facilities and spend time with the company's CEO, Dr. Michl Binderbauer. Founded in 1998, TAE has spent nearly three decades pursuing one of the energy industry's most ambitious goals: commercializing a safe, sustainable, and economically viable source of fusion energy. With renewed momentum in the fusion industry, we thought it was the perfect time to visit TAE and better understand why many believe fusion's moment may finally be approaching. Our visit also marks the beginning of a California COBT series, where over the coming weeks, we'll highlight some of the state's innovative companies, technologies, and leaders. We will also touch on a challenge or two the state is facing. Stay tuned! In our discussion, Michl explains why he believes fusion has reached a true inflection point after nearly three decades of scientific and engineering progress. He outlines why TAE was founded with the “end in mind,” deliberately choosing the more technically challenging hydrogen-boron fuel cycle because it offered the best path to a commercially viable power plant rather than simply proving the science. We explore how advances in AI, machine learning, advanced computing, and materials science have accelerated development, why TAE believes commercial fusion is now measured in years rather than decades, and how the company is preparing to build its first demonstration power plant. We discuss TAE's innovative approach to commercializing technologies developed along the way, including its advanced power management platform that is finding applications in AI data centers, industrial facilities, and grid modernization. Michl shares his vision for fusion's role in delivering abundant, reliable energy to meet the world's rapidly growing electricity demand, the importance of recent U.S. regulatory reforms, the race with China to commercialize fusion, workforce and supply chain challenges, and why he believes fusion has become not only an energy opportunity, but also an economic and national security imperative. We look at what the next five years could look like for TAE, why hyperscalers, industrial customers, and the Department of War may become some of fusion's earliest adopters before widespread utility deployment, the company's long-term vision for a more distributed electric grid, and much more. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion, and we greatly appreciate Michl for sharing his time and insights. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that markets have been volatile this week. He highlighted that the cooler-than-expected CPI report sparked a rally in Treasuries, driving the 10-year yield down from roughly 4.65% to 4.55%, and said Wednesday's PPI report will be another important data point for the Fed. U.S. equities also moved higher, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 0.5% on the back of the CPI report and strong bank earnings, while the Dow lagged following a sharp selloff in IBM shares after disappointing quarterly results. In commodities, Brent and WTI crude prices climbed roughly $8-$9/bbl this week following the collapse of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire and renewed disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasized that today's challenge is less a global crude supply issue than a global refining problem, citing tight refined product inventories and the loss of roughly 1.5 million bpd of Russian refining capacity following Ukrainian attacks. He also highlighted that European natural gas prices have surged from approximately $16/MMBtu to $19/MMBtu as storage levels remain 20%-25% below seasonal norms and buyers compete for LNG cargoes. Mike noted that Energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector this week, up approximately 3%, as investors turn their attention to second-quarter oilfield services earnings. He also highlighted the newly announced strategic alliance between SLB and Liberty Energy focused on data center infrastructure and power solutions, noting that similar partnerships are likely to become increasingly common across the energy sector.

With the main surge of bank earnings over, investors face Morgan Stanley today along with chip infrastructure firm ASML. PPI follows a light CPI and Warsh continues testimony. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The {securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. For illustrative purpose(s) only. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please seeschwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0131-0726) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami and Liz Thomas discuss recent “momentum on, momentum off” volatility, with semiconductors swinging and earnings season starting with banks that have traded well despite a flattening yield curve. They debate rising long-term Treasury yields, arguing hikes aren't appropriate in a slowing economy and tying yield pressure to Middle East conflict, oil inflation fears, and U.S. fiscal indiscipline, with the bond market challenging the Fed's 2% target under new Chair Kevin Warsh. They touch on private equity weakness versus tight credit spreads, whether credit cycles still exist amid repeated policy “saves,” and upcoming CPI (3.8% expected) and PPI (6.2% expected). They flag Japan's weakening yen and stressed bond market as an underappreciated risk, review gold's move as central-bank and retail flows shift, and outline a second-half view: stocks higher but volatile, with opportunities in Mag Seven, financials, healthcare, commodities, and energy. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric O'Rourke and Brian Terry discuss the current SPX market environment, why June was a difficult month for many options traders, and what they're watching as earnings season begins.Topics include:SPX support and resistance using call wall and put wall analysisHow gamma positioning may impact short-term market directionCPI, PPI, Federal Reserve commentary, and potential interest rate scenariosWhy financial stocks could lead the next market moveSpaceX (SPCX) options, covered calls, cash-secured puts, and long-term investing ideasCurrent 0DTE SPX credit spread trades and managing risk during volatile marketsHow to approach trading during headline-driven marketsWhether you trade SPX 0DTE options, swing trades, or longer-term option strategies, this episode shares practical insights on navigating today's market conditions.

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are among the most commonly prescribed medications, but understanding how they work is essential for using them safely and effectively. In this episode of the Real Life Pharmacology podcast, we’ll break down the pharmacology of PPIs, including their mechanism of action, common brand and generic names, clinical uses, adverse effects, drug interactions, and important monitoring considerations. Whether you’re a pharmacist, nurse, pharmacy technician, or student, this episode will help reinforce the key concepts you need to confidently apply PPI pharmacology in clinical practice. Be sure to check out our free Top 200 study guide – a 31 page PDF that is yours for FREE! Support The Podcast and Check Out These Amazing Resources! NAPLEX Study Materials BCPS Study Materials BCACP Study Materials BCGP Study Materials BCMTMS Study Materials Meded101 Guide to Nursing Pharmacology (Amazon Highly Rated) Guide to Drug Food Interactions (Amazon Best Seller) Pharmacy Technician Study Guide by Meded101