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Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Trump's back-down on tariffs came as corporate decision-makers concluded reshoring isn't a good idea. There are few moves to bolster US-based production.But first today, Fed boss Powell spoke overnight and he focused on the challenges they face keeping inflation under control. He noted long-term interest rates are now notably higher, driven mainly by risk premiums rather than shifts in inflation expectations, while estimates of the longer-run neutral policy rate have also risen. He noted the US economy has changed a lot since their last review and warned that inflation might become more volatile in future due to more frequent supply shocks, which will make it harder for central banks to achieve price stability. Throughout his remarks, Powell also stressed the critical role of anchored inflation expectations. Meanwhile US initial jobless claims slipped slightly to 205,200 but that was what seasonal factors accounted for and what analysts were expecting. There are now 1.783 mln people on these benefits, a reduction from last week, but it is up almost +100,000 from this time last year.Maybe surprisingly, American producer prices fell by -0.5% in April, following a revised flat reading in March and defying market expectations of a +0.2% increase. This was the first decline in the PPI since October 2023 and the sharpest drop since April 2020, during the early pandemic period. The retreat was largely driven by a -0.7% fall in service costs, the largest since data collection began in December 2009, and that was due to a -1.6% drop in margins for trade services, because businesses are absorbing much of the impact from higher tariffs. PPI is now up +2.4% from a year ago.Industrial production in the US didn't rise as expected in April. In fact factory output fell -0.4%, reversing the increase in March. And the prospects of shifting significant production "back to the US" seem remote in many diverse categories.There were two regional factory surveys released for May overnight, and both declined somewhat. The NY Fed's Empire State survey reported another modest decline. The Philly Fed's survey for their core rust belt region recorded a sharp improvement, better than the improvement expected. But it is still in decline.In a sign of the times a major lithium battery recycler has entered bankruptcy.US retail sales were little-changed in April, following the upwardly revised +1.7% front-loaded pre-tariff surge in March. 2024 gains mean they are +5.2% higher than year-ago levels.The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in the US fell sharply in May to its the lowest since November 2023 and well below what was expected. Home builders are glum. Current sales conditions fell, sales expectations in the next six months edged lower, and they said traffic of prospective buyers has dropped recently.Meanwhile, housing starts in Canada jumped +30% in April from March and that was well above what was expected. It was their most since June 2023. US tariffs on Canadian softwoods is likely making Canadian house building costs lower.Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders rose +7.7% in April from a year ago, but that growth was a slowing from +11.4% growth in March. But it was the seventh consecutive month of rising machine tool orders. Local orders dropped -5.4% from a year earlier while foreign orders jumped +13.3% on the same basis. India's exports were nothing special in April, certainly not reflective of a rising industrial power. They slipped from March but they were up +9.0% from a year ago due to gains in prior months.In Europe, industrial production rose by +2.6% in March from February, marking the strongest increase since November 2020 and rising from a good +1.1% gain in February. The result easily beat market expectations of a +1.8% rise. The surge was driven primarily by a rebound in output of durable consumer goods.In Australia, they added +75,500 jobs in April, almost 47,500 of them full-time positions. Their employed workforce grew +2.75% in the past year. Their jobless rate eased to 4.1% from 4.3% (although staying at 4.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis which is the metric others report). Inflation pressure plus this strong jobs report might have the RBA re-thinking the wisdom of a rate cut.Bulk freight rates fell -7.0% in the last week to be -18.5% lower than year-ago levels. Container freight rates were also -18.0% lower than year ago levels, but they did rise +8% last week with a surge in outbound cargoes from China across the Pacific on the sudden 'pause' in tariff hikes.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.45%, down -8 bps so far today.The price of gold will start today at US$3218/oz, and up +US$43 from yesterday.Oil prices are -US$2 lower today at just over US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just on US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.7 USc, down -40 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 67.2 and down a net -40 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$104,020 and up +0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just under +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureA major backer of green energy admits it would be able to keep the lights on. Lee Zeldin cuts regulations. Tariffs are a good thing, it will change everything. Companies are coming back to the US. Israel removes all tariffs. The [DS] is pushing everything they have at Trump, they have all judges trying to dictate how the executive branch should be run. The people are getting a lesson in the Constitution. The [DS] tried to cover up their crimes by deleting data. The coverup always gets you. Elon signals that arrests are coming.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy A Major Backer Of Green Energy Admits Again That Solar And Wind Power Alone ‘Can't Reliably Keep The Lights On' BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, historically a supporter of green energy initiatives, acknowledged that wind and solar alone “can't reliably keep the lights on” without “major breakthroughs in storage” and wrote that it's necessary to be “clear-eyed about our energy mix” in his annual chairman's letter to investors on Monday. Fink supported the transition to green energy in the past and heads BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, which has pushed for Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance (ESG). Fink said in 2023 that he would no longer use the term ESG due to its political connotation, though he's “not ashamed” of the term and believes in “conscious capitalism.” Fink praised nuclear power and raised doubts Monday regarding the reliability of solar and wind energy alone due to storage issues in his annual chairman's letter. Source; dailycaller.com  Congressman says Trump's rare earth minerals plans could spur manufacturing boom in Rust Belt In 2023, China accounted for nearly 70 percent of global production of strategic minerals. Its share has increased after reaching a low at 57.6 percent in 2020. "And here's the reason why it's so important that we mine them, because you're going to almost certainly have your manufacturing close to where you find the natural resource," Tiffany says. Congressman Tom Tiffany, R-Wis., predicted that President Trump's plans on rare earth minerals could spur a manufacturing boom in the Rust Belt, referring to last week's joint session of Congress on Tuesday. At that speech, Trump said “Later this week, I will also take historic action to dramatically expand production of critical minerals and rare earths here in the USA.” Trump is reportedly preparing an executive order that would speed up raw mineral production and processing. Tiffany, a member of the Committee on Natural Resources and chairman of its Subcommittee on Federal Lands, said Trump's executive action will be a game changer for the U.S. Source: justthenews.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1906763321610502534   $9,191. This was followed by New Jersey, Florida, and Alaska at $9,112, $9,094, and $9,094. Furthermore, Wyoming has the fastest-growing card debt levels which rose 8.9% in Q3 2024. Meanwhile, total credit card debt has risen by $441 billion since Q1 2021 and hit a record $1.2 trillion in Q4 2024, according the NY Fed. Credit card debt is out of control. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1906738279619145800  next. World's Largest Oil Refining Company Halts Venezuelan Oil Purchases Following President Trump Tariff Announcement Last week President Trump announced secondary tariffs of 25% against any nation who purchases oil from Venezuela.  The approach was in response to the Venezuelan government refusing repatriation o...

US equities were sharply lower in Monday trading as stocks finished just a bit off worst levels. The S&P and Nasdaq logged their worst sessions of 2025, with some classic defensive rotations in view. In macro news, the NY Fed's February Survey of Consumer Expectations saw 1Y inflation expectations tick up point 1 percentage point to 3.1%, though the 3-5 year outlook remained unchanged at 3%.

The Daily Business and Finance Show - Monday, 10 March 2025 We get our business and finance news from Seeking Alpha and you should too! Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium for more in-depth market news and help support this podcast. Free for 14-days! Please click here for more info: Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium News Today's headlines: Musk says X saw a 'massive cyberattack' following multiple global outages EU set to hand out 'modest fines' to U.S. tech giants Apple, Meta - Reuters Consumers' financial outlooks deteriorate as their year-ahead inflation expectations edge up: NY Fed survey SA analysts mixed on when stocks will rebound following sell-off Crude oil slips to six-month lows as U.S. tariffs, China's weak economy spark demand fears Veren-Whitecap merger a 'match made in heaven,' Raymond James analyst says Here's the major earnings before the open tomorrow The bottom for the momentum factor may be in sight, strategist Kolanovic says Explanations from OpenAI ChatGPT API with proprietary prompts. This podcast provides information only and should not be construed as financial or business advice. This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture The old Federal Reserve system is imploding. The [CB] are in trouble. Trump is now putting all the pieces in place and he is dismantling the Federal Reserve System. Trump is continually added more pieces to the puzzle to remove the people from the system and create a new system that will fund the government. The [DS] is in a panic today, Pam Bondi continually threatened the [DS] with the Epstein client list and she was able to expose the sleepers in NY Fed office. Kash and Pam are now investigating. We are in an information war and this was a test to see what ammunition the [DS] has. Phase I complete of Epstein release, moving to the next phase.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy Initial Unemployment Claims Spike by 22,000 Not DOGE Related Unemployment claims jumped but it's not Federal in nature.   In the week ending February 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,000, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 215,250 to 215,500. Initial Claims and 4-Week Average DOGE, Random, or Something Else? The Department of Labor data rules out DOGE. Source: mishtalk.com US Pending Home Sales Collapse To Record Lows Pending home sales tumbled 4.6% MoM in January (after dropping 4.2% MoM in December), dramatically worse than the 0.9% MoM decline expected and dragging YoY sales down 5.2%... Source: Bloomberg This drop pushed pending home sales index to its all-time lows...   Contract signings tumbled 9.2% in the South - the biggest home-selling region in the country - parts of which experienced historic snowfall. That marked the biggest drop since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Worse still, home prices continue to rise and squeeze would-be buyers. c Source: zerohedge.com Eli Lilly Announces Plan To Invest $27 Billion In America Amid Trump Tariff Threats Eli Lilly announced that it plans to more than double its U.S. manufacturing investment this year to $50 billion as President Trump threatens to place tariffs on pharmaceutical imports. The drug giant plans to begin building four domestic manufacturing locations in 2025 and add 13,000 high-wage manufacturing and construction jobs, according to a press release. The company claimed the plans account for the largest pharmaceutical manufacturing investment in U.S. history. 

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more signaled tariffs on imports into the US, specifically on metals. A new inflation surge seems inevitable, as does less trade and low growth - in other words we need to prepare for a new bout of stagflation.But first, American consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead remained at 3% for a third consecutive month in January, according to the NY Fed national survey. This is far more sanguine than the University of Michigan survey we noted yesterday which reported a 4.3% year ahead level. The NY Fed survey noted that households now expect to pull back their spending in the year ahead, however.The Musk takeover of US spending priorities is leaving many losers, including US farmers. In Canada, a survey by their central bank of about 30 significant financial "market participants" at the end of 2024 showed that those polled expect the Canadian 3% current policy interest rate still has another -50 bps of cuts to come, but that it will level out at 2.5% from mid-year for the next long period. This survey also showed an expectation of a +1.8% or +1.9% economic growth rate over the next two years, although the largest risk to that is from policy uncertainty in the US.And staying in Canada, falling residential values are leaving some very tough positions for buyers who bought off the plan, and now find the contract price now far exceeds what a bank would value their purchase for a mortgage.In India, the one-two public policy push to "go for growth" with tax cuts and a lower policy interest rate, isn't getting plaudits from financial markets. They have driven the Indian currency to a record low against the USD, although it has come off that in the past few hours. (But of course some of that is due to the overall strength of the USD.)In the face of new US tariff threats, some targeted metals prices have risen. Essentially they are pricing in the higher prices American buyers will have to pay. Aluminium is at a two year high and running at long term high levels, steel comes in may varieties, but rebar steel hasn't moved much because that has China-focused demand. Other commodity-metals are flat, but specialty metal prices are rising. And copper is back near its all-time highs suddenly at just over US$10,000/tonne (NZ$17,750). These shifts higher will underpin global inflationary impulses that no-one can avoid.And we should probably note that the new aggressive new US Gaza policies probably mean there will be no end to the risks of using the Suez Canal, extending its inflationary impact.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.49%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2900/oz and up +US$40 from yesterday. This will be a new record closing if it holds this level.Oil prices are up +US$1.50 at just under US$72.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$76/bbl and back to week-ago levels.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.5 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday.  Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.8, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$97,281 and up +0.7% slip from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and former New York Fed President Bill Dudley discusses Fed uncertainty while anticipating Trump's policies, labor market weakening, and economic forecast for 2025. Tariffs and deportations will have a grave effect on the economy in 2025, explains Dudley. He speaks with hosts Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Daily Business and Finance Show - Monday, 6 January 2025 We get our business and finance news from Seeking Alpha and you should too! Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium for more in-depth market news and help support this podcast. Free for 14-days! Please click here for more info: Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium News Today's headlines: Trump slams U.K. North Sea energy policy, says 'get rid of windmills' Tesla bears pounce on Q4 delivery miss Mag 7? More like 'Mag 1' as Nvidia dominates the megacap club in 2024 Short sellers down $180.9B in 2024 mark-to-market losses as Wall Street soars 20-year Treasury bond shortage exposed by surging failed trades, NY Fed data show S&P 500 Energy ends 2024 with a slim gain; 2025 outlook gloomy Nvidia, AMD, among chip companies likely to make news at CES S&P 500 would have underperformed European stocks, if not for Nvidia Trending stocks as Wall Street steps into first days of 2025 with cautiousness Explanations from OpenAI ChatGPT API with proprietary prompts. This podcast provides information only and should not be construed as financial or business advice. This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's blockchain and cryptocurrency news  Bitcoin is down half a percent at $99,464 Eth is up slightly at $4,006 XRP, up 1.5% at $2.47 Top gainers in the last 24 hours: Hedra, up 22% NY Fed president Bill Dudley writes op-ed on proposed BTC reserve UK FCA says pump.fun not authorized in country. FDIC asked financial institutions to pause crypto-related activities Czech republic approves BTC exception for capital gains. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news all eyes are on the US non-farm payrolls report due out tomorrow, and market activity is hesitant in advance of that.US jobless claims came in at +210,000 last week, a good decrease from the prior week. But it was not as large a drop as the seasonality suggests it should have been, so it counts as a 'rise' on the headline basis. Continuing claims were 1.66 mln and that fall was more than the seasonal effects expected.There are still very few announced job cuts in this huge labour market.So that will probably mean the US November non-farm payrolls report will be a positive one when it is released tomorrow morning. Markets currently expect +200,000 more jobs filled.The US Fed's November Beige Book describes a moderately expanding overall economy.US exports came in at US$266 bln in October, about the 2024 monthly average even though they slipped from the prior month. But they were +1.9% higher than the same month a year ago, in a rising trend that started in June 2023. Imports slipped in October too from the prior month, but these also stayed at about the 2024 monthly average. The US trade deficit in both goods and services reduced in October and runs at under -3% of GDP, a level easily absorbed in such a large country, especially one whose currency is the standard for international trade.Canadian exports and imports both rose in October, and their trade deficit - although on a rising trend - has an even smaller impact on their economy.In Europe, although it slipped in October from September, the volume of EU retail trade was up +2.1% from the same month a year ago. This is perhaps a surprising show of resilience for an economy that is being widely panned as struggling.On the global logistics front, perhaps we should note the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index that the NY Fed monitors. In November, it eased slightly. After the sharp pandemic pressures it eased noticeable in April 2023 and has seen no return since then, despite the ups and downs of things like the major canal stresses. The global logistics network has been remarkably resilient, the pandemic excepted.And last week, global container freight rates rose +6% from the prior week to be +150% higher than pre-pandemic levels still. There were sharp rises in the China-to-Europe trade, more than enough to offset sharp fall in the Chine-to-USWC trade. Going the other way there was a very sharp drop in bulk cargo rates, down -22% from the prior week to their lowest since September 2023 and actually back to levels first reached in 1987.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.18%, down -2 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2637/oz and down -US$15 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are -US$1 lower at US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$72.50/bbl. These low prices forced OPEC to delay its planned output hike in January.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.7 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we up +10 bps at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.3, and again unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$100,825 and up +6.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.7%. At one point it reached US$103,000, at another back under $100,000.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, also spoke about the gold vault underneath the building and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's taste in music, including the Grateful Dead.

Matt and Nic are back for more news and deals. In this episode: The Polymarket whale is identified BTCUSD predictions for the election Election models versus prediction markets Stripe acquires Bridge for $1.1b Did the Bridge deal make sense for Stripe? Stablecoins as Fintech 3.0 Nigeria frees Tigran Gambaryan Kraken is launching the Ink blockchain Buenos Aires is launching a blockchain-based identity solution Opera launches the minipay wallet A new paper from the Fed gives us new insight into the 2023 bank run Coinbase FOIAs the regulators behind OCP 2.0 Content mentioned in this episode: NY Fed, Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time Sponsor notes: Introducing Exchange Flow Metrics: In Coin Metrics' State of the Network issue 282, we introduce Coin Metrics' new exchange flow metrics for BTC & ETH Withum's Digital Currency and Blockchain Technology Team specializes in crypto-assets, offering accounting, tax and advisory solutions to fortify trust in a dynamic industry. Contact them today to get started. - withum.com/crypto

The Federal Reserve can't sustain 50 basis point rate cuts if the economy and the labor market remain strong and inflation pressures linger, ex-NY Fed executive Ricks Roberts told MNI. 

The Daily Business and Finance Show - Sunday, 29 September 2024 We get our business and finance news from Seeking Alpha and you should too! Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium for more in-depth market news and help support this podcast. Free for 14-days! Please click here for more info: Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium News Today's headlines: What to expect from Tesla's robotaxi event Israel downgraded by Moody's as war weighs on economy Here are the Medicare Part D drugs expected to face 2025 price negotiations David Tepper says projections for nuclear powering AI are `crazy' Brent short positions held by money managers exceed longs for first time on record Microsoft-backed OpenAI projects $5B loss on $3.7B sales this year Apple drops out of race to join OpenAI funding round: WSJ Boeing's contract talks break down on pension, pay issues U.S. Treasury liquidity shifts to month-end as passive funds dominate: NY Fed research Explanations from OpenAI ChatGPT API with proprietary prompts. This podcast provides information only and should not be construed as financial or business advice. This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former NY Fed President/Bloomberg Opinion columnist Bill Dudley discusses his call for the Fed to cut 50 bps with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's Jackson Hole meeting where the theme  is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” We talk about some of the things they might touch on and how the market may react. We also discuss the consumer spending situation; why it's not as rosy as the number suggests and why these red flags have not yet caused a more significant slowdown in consumer spending.   Here is the link to the quarterly report that the NY Fed puts out on consumer debt that we discuss. For graphs referenced, check out this week's Pensford Newsletter. 

Today on the Daily News You Can Use, Ray and Zach discuss the latest data on auto loan delinquencies from the NY Fed. Subprime lending is a mess. Tune in to learn more!

Roberto Perli is the manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) and a senior leader in the New York Fed's Markets Group. In his role, Roberto is responsible for implementing monetary policy at the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Roberto is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about a recent speech he made titled, *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead.* Specifically, David and Roberto discuss the Fed's recent balance sheet activities, the basics and functionality of the overnight reverse repo facility, the importance of slowing down the Fed's balance sheet runoff, and much more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Roberto's NY Fed profile Roberto's Twitter: @R_Perli   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead* - Remarks by Roberto Perli at the 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:49) – Breaking Down the Role of SOMA Manager   (00:08:43) – Recapping the Fed's Balance Sheet Activities   (00:11:04) – How to Think About Quantitative Tightening   (00:13:19) – Breaking Down the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility   (00:20:42) – Slowing Down the Runoff and the Future of QT   (00:26:48) – How to Determine the Critical Level of Reserves   (00:33:03) – The Structural Demand for Bank Reserves Over Time   (00:38:55) – The Advantages of the Floor Operating System   (00:47:49) – Reserve Supply Focus Moving Forward   (00:49:44) – Outro

US equities finished mixed in largely uneventful Monday trading, spending much of the session near the unchanged mark. Another quiet, low volume session before the market exits a catalyst vacuum starting tomorrow with key inflation and consumption data. NY Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations noted consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations rose in April at both the one- and five-year time horizons.

European bourses are mixed and trade around the unchanged mark; US futures are modestly firmerDollar is slightly softer weighed on by recent EUR strength, NZD lagsBonds are incrementally firmer, though within contained rangesCrude benchmarks are on the front foot, XAU is softer and base metals are mixedOvernight focus on mixed Chinese data and then upcoming ultra-long issuance, latter development providing supportLooking ahead, NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations Survey, Comments from Fed's Mester & Jefferson, SNB's JordanRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams discusses the state of the US economy, the recent inflation data and the outlook for monetary policy with Bloomberg's Mike McKeeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US equities ended narrowly mixed in Monday's trading session with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq hovering around unchanged though small caps outperformed. The NY Fed one-year inflation expectations were unchanged for third-straight month, though increased at the 3Y horizon. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee commented today that recent jobs data confirms that the economy is strong, and noted late last week that he sees continued high inflation in housing services as the biggest danger to the inflation picture.

#tokenization #digitalassets #securitytoken Tune in to this episode of the Security Token Show where this week Herwig Konings, Kyle Sonlin, & Sarah Morton cover the industry leading headlines and market movements, including Bonds on BASE, tZERO's return, and a Tokenized Slice of Italy!   This week Jason Barraza had a chance to sit down with Johnney Zhang, CEO at USP on their new RegCF via Republic!   Company of the Week - Herwig: tZERO: https://www.tzero.com/    Company of the Week - Kyle: Tuscany National Token/ Park Street Development Group: https://tuscanynationaltoken.com/     = Stay in touch via our Social Media = Kyle: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kylesonlin/  Herwig: https://www.linkedin.com/in/herwigkonings/ Sarah: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarahmortonvan/  Jason: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonbarraza/  Opinion articles, interviews, and more: https://medium.com/security-token-group  Find the video edition of this episode on our Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/securitytokenmarket    All articles that were discussed were sourced from https://STOmarket.com/news     The Market Movements   BUIDL Experiences 1st Redemption/ Reaches $280M AUM Tuscany National Token is Now Live on tZERO: https://tuscanynationaltoken.com/   Emmis Capital Launches Pre-IPO Fund Offering on tZERO: https://www.accesswire.com/849169/emmis-capital-launches-10-million-reg-d-capital-raise-using-the-tzero-securities-services   Obligate Issues Their 1st Bond on Base: https://obligate.medium.com/obligate-partners-with-mikro-kapital-for-its-first-bond-issuance-on-base-164005b42626   Clearpool Lists First Credit Vault Using Avalanche: https://medium.com/clearpool-finance/clearpool-expands-to-avalanche-with-listed-fintech-firm-launching-first-credit-vault-061f8c1a1790   GF Securities Returns with 1st Commercial Paper Offering in Hong Kong: https://www.tronweekly.com/gf-securities-releases-first-paper-tokenized/   Hokkoku Bank Tokenizes Deposits as Stablecoins, 1st in Japan: https://www.ledgerinsights.com/hokkoku-bank-japan-first-deposit-backed-stablecoin/   New STM Market Report Live: March 2024: https://medium.com/security-token-group/stm-market-report-march-2024-c68e3854130c   The Token Debrief   BIS, NY Fed, and 5 other Central Banks Team Up on Project Agora: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/04/03/central-bank-group-starts-tokenization-project-to-enhance-monetary-system/ Ripple Announces Plans to Launch Stablecoin: https://blockworks.co/news/ripple-issuing-cash-equivalent-backed-stablecoin GK8 Moves Beyond Custody into Tokenization Services: https://www-coindesk-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.coindesk.com/business/2024/04/03/galaxy-digital-owned-crypto-custody-specialist-gk8-unveils-tokenization-wizard/amp/ New FIQ Market One by FusionIQ for Wealth Managers: https://ibsintelligence.com/ibsi-news/fusioniq-launches-fiq-market-one-to-transform-investment-marketplaces/ Miami-Based Neoclassic Capital to Focus on RWAs, Crypto Derivatives: https://coingape.com/industry-veterans-launch-firm-focusing-on-crypto-derivatives-rwa-tokenization/ Peter Gaffney on CoinDesk: “Where BlackRock Goes, Liquidity Flows”: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/04/03/where-blackrock-goes-liquidity-flows/    = Check out our Companies = Security Token Group: http://securitytokengroup.com/   Security Token Advisors: http://www.securitytokenadvisors.com/   Security Token Market: https://stm.co  InvestReady: https://www.investready.com   ⏰ TABLE OF CONTENTS ⏰ 0:16 Introduction 0:57 The Market Movements 21:36 STS Interviews: USP 30:41 The Token Debrief 33:34 Companies of The Week: tZERO, Tuscany National Token/ Park Street Development Group

The market now sees the Fed's first rate cut coming in June, but one former NY Fed analyst thinks that's an overestimate. Plus, the so-called TikTok bill is on its way to the Senate as one billionaire floats a plan to buy the company if it becomes law. We'll look at the social media landscape and impact on the 2024 election. And Impossible Foods is in the midst of a makeover as it hopes to attract more customers. The CEO joins us with what's behind the strategy.

Carl Quintanilla and Sara Eisen tackle today's biggest Money Movers from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. 

European equities are generally firmer, though the FTSE 100 lags, hampered by AstraZeneca; US equity futures are around flat, with slight outperformance in the RTYDollar is marginally firmer, the Kiwi underperforms despite hawkish-leaning speak from RBNZ officials overnightBonds are little changed amid catalyst thin trade and will likely take impetus from upcoming central bank speakCrude is softer on the session despite geopolitical escalation in Gaza; base metals are softer as Chinese participants remain on holidayLooking ahead, US Federal Budget, NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, Japanese Corporate Good Prices, BoC SLOOS, Comments from ECB's, Lane, de Cos, Cipollone, RBA's Kohler, Fed's Barkin & KashkariRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

This week, we take a look into U.S. household debt and credit, finding that consumers are looking far from “resilient.” We also host Marius Jongstra, head of market strategy at Rosenberg Research, for his latest views on the major asset classes. Introduction (0:20) The Week in Review (0:44) — Diving into the U.S. credit data via the SLOOS and NY Fed's Household Debt and Credit report The Week Ahead (2:27) — Some huge data releases on deck headlined by U.S. CPI and retail sales The Spotlight (2:58) — Fed undershoot? Why we think the Fed's average inflation-targeting framework won't be an issue The Interview (6:34) —Marius Jongstra on the markets Canada Corner (11:21) — Home sales are beginning to pick up while prices falter For a 30-day free trial of our research, please click this link: ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

Today on the Daily News You Can Use, Ray and Zach discuss the latest data from the NY Fed on loan delinquencies and credit card debt. Tune in to learn more!

US equities finished higher in Monday trading. The Fed was in focus with Dallas Fed President Logan suggesting there may be a case to slow the pace of the balance sheet runoff. The NY Fed survey showed consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations are now at their lowest level since January 2021.

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, are back this week to discuss some hedging examples and how hedging is cheap right now. They even go through a few examples. Then they get into the sharp rise in container shipping costs before discussing the weaker PMI Services data. Later they note Bloomberg's data showing articles mentioning “soft landing” are the highest since the 2000-2001 recession. A fun segment where they go through data from Unusual Whales showing the 2023 returns from members of congress and which members traded the most including options. Finally, they discuss whether so goes January goes the rest of the year in markets is a good indicator.   The cost of hedging with options is cheap right now. Examples of hedging using the S&P 500 Index ETF SPY and Nvidia Zero cost collars to hedge downside risk. Is good news in markets or bad news in markets good news? Container shipping costs spike due to the Red Sea and Suez Canal re-routing. PMI Services data shows employment dipped below 50, which is contraction. What is the PMI Services Survey? “Soft Landing” shows up in Bloomberg articles the most since the 2000-2001 recession. Which members of the US Congress beat the markets last year 2023? Unusual Whales publishes report showing number of trades and performance of US Congress Which congressman traded over 4000 times last year? What does January performance say about the rest of the year's performance in markets? NY Fed global supply chain pressure index     Mentioned in this Episode:   Report from Unusual Whales showing 2023 members of congress trading returns https://unusualwhales.com/politics/article/congress-trading-report-2023   December ISM Services PMI report https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/december/   NY Federal Reserve Bank Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive   2024 Predictions | Late Year Rally Bullish? | What if Investors Are Expecting Too Many Rate Cuts? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/2024-predictions-late-year-rally-bullish-what-if-investors/id1432836154?i=1000640245688 0 DTE Options to Blame for Selloff? | 2024 Targets for S&P 500 Index | Fed Dot Plots Always Wrong?https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0-dte-options-to-blame-for-selloff-2024-targets-for/id1432836154?i=1000639530301   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Bloomberg Opinion columnist and former New York Fed President William Dudley says the market may be getting ahead of itself when it comes to Fed rate cuts. He speaks with hosts Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

*NEW ITEM!* Purchase my newest book! "15 Conversations with Real Estate Millionaires" https://amzn.to/3CGOWOU

Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former NY Fed President Bill Dudley discusses the latest Fed decision with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Tom Keene. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today on the Daily News You Can Use, Ray and Zach discuss the latest data from the NY Fed on auto lending. Delinquency rates are at all-time highs, and auto loan rejection rates are spiking. Tune in to learn more!

US equities finished narrowly mixed in very quiet Monday trading. There were not a lot of catalysts today and investors continue to weigh well-worn themes, though all come with caveats. Today, latest NY Fed consumer survey showed a slight downtick in inflation expectations and more optimistic economic outlook.

The NY Fed's newest report shows delinquencies are rising quickly in some areas, but our market guest is looking at another indicator she says suggests a rough holiday quarter ahead. We'll look at what it is, and which market strategy to deploy into year-end. Plus, one lodging REIT just posted a solid quarter on the strength of corporate travel and conventions. The owner of the Grand Ole Opry joins us for an exclusive interview. And pet spending is still going strong. The CEO of Freshpet joins us on the heels of earnings with the stock up 20 percent in one week. 

AMY WILBURN - BANKRUPTCY ATTORNEY AT LINCOLN GOLDFINCH LAW JOINS DAWN.... AMY EXPANDS ON THE FOLLOWING PROMPTS...  FORBES REPORT ON AMERICA AND DEBT: A quick check of headlines reveals a growing number of Americans are struggling to pay bills: Forbes notes that Americans are falling behind on their auto loans at the fastest pace in almost 30 years.Higher car prices and rising interest rates are hindering car owners' ability to afford their vehicle payments, as 6.1% of subprime auto borrowers are at least 60 days past due on their loans, the highest percentage in data dating back to 1994, according to Bloomberg, which cited Fitch Ratings. Insider adds that in the second quarter of this financial year, credit card debt surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in the NY Fed survey's history. Adding to the financial struggles for many Americans, student loan payments that were paused for more than three years are resuming as well. Will this lead to an increase in personal bankruptcies? What can people who are struggling financially do NOW to avoid that? Tune in 10 AM - 12 PM EST weekdays on Talk Radio 1210 WPHT; or on the Audacy app!

Former NY Fed President &  Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Bill Dudley talks about the state of the US economy and whether he thinks the Fed will raise rates at their next meeting. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

European bourses & US futures are firmer in a continuation of the APAC handover where action was driven by Chinese inflationTesla +5.5% in pre-market trade following action by Morgan StanleyUSD pressured by both the JPY & Yuan following Ueda and midpoint/CPI respectivelyCore fixed benchmarks remain depressed but are off worst as JGBs regroup from BoJ-inspired lowsCrude continues to pullback despite bullish catalysts while metals benefit from China and the softer USDLooking ahead, highlights include NY Fed SCE. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said US monetary policy is “in a good place,” but officials will need to parse through data to decide on how to proceed on interest rates. He spoke in an exclusive conversation with Bloomberg Economics Editor Michael McKee, from the Bloomberg Market Forum in New York, about monetary policy, inflation, and more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The boys are finally back together again. Haroon has welcomed the birth of his second daughter and Saied is back from his family's Hawaiian vacation. To start the show Chris, Saied and Haroon wanted to emphasize their thoughts and prayers are with the people of Maui who have been impacted by this tragic and devastating fire. After which, they jump in to Ray Dalio's interesting recession perspective. Saied gives a complete rundown of July's inflation numbers and Chris continues to declare that the JOLTs report is manipulated and can't be trusted. Something interesting is happening in Minneapolis, home prices hit a record high in 60% of U.S. markets and credit card debt hits a record high at $1 trillion dollars. Then, despite Chris thinking that asking for reviews was a colossal waste of time, we got several new amazing honest five star reviews. This of course continues to prove that 50% of the time Chris is wrong, every time. Resources:Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says the Fed's measures haven't slowed consumers down, and the government is paying the price (Fortune)July CPI report shows inflation gauge rose 3.2%, less than expected (CNBC)US economy adds 187,000 July jobs in sign labor market is cooling (The Guardian)First American City to Tame Inflation Owes Its Success to Affordable Housing (Bloomberg)Home prices hit record highs in 60% of U.S. markets (CNBC)Rental housing cost rises to ‘slow significantly' over next 18 months, Fed researchers say (Market Watch)Credit card debt hits a record high at $1 trillion, NY Fed says (Yahoo! Finance)Americans are pulling money out of their 401(k) plans at an alarming rate (CNN Business)July jobs report: U.S. payroll growth totaled 187,000, lower than expected (CNBC)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any...

From rate hikes to cuts by next year? The NY Fed's John Williams suggests that prospect in a new interview. We'll look at what that could mean for inflation and the markets. Plus, is the labor market actually stronger than it appears? The debate between the ADP survey and the governments official data goes to the next level. And what's driving historic lows in housing inventory? New data from Black Knight points to a few reasons and consequences.

*NEW ITEM!* Purchase my newest book! "15 Conversations with Real Estate Millionaires" https://amzn.to/3CGOWOU

Mild gains today came despite some renewed concerns about economic growth following record sequential contraction in the NY Fed's Empire manufacturing survey. Headlines over the weekend highlighted some traction behind the debt ceiling negotiations and the key players are set to meet again on Tuesday. In terms of Fedspeak, there was nothing surprising in the latest batch and little that is likely to alter the calculus for a June pause.

Announcing a new Closest to the Pin this week. Yellen starting to freak out. Market not ready for an inflation data surprise. Sentiment slipping.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - ANNOUNCING - NEW CTP for PacWest - Some prices from F1 food stops - is this right? - Gamma squeeze Friday? - Small biz sentiment - taking a leg down - Derby Day - bourbon and ham sandwiches Market Update - Oil gets a reprieve - dropped as low at $63 - Credit/loans tightening and we are just starting - Lending conditions tighten overall - Earnings - 79% companies beating estimates (good color with Silverblatt this week)  DONATIONS? Debt Ceiling Fight - Odds? - Bug dilemma - Republicans pushing for spending cuts Inflation - NY Fed- estimates 3-year rise to 2.9% from 2.8% - NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations measure drops to 4.4% from 4.7% last month Employment Report - Higher than expected gains in employment - BUT - Last month revised much lower - so not much difference - Unemployment Rate drops to 3.4% - April Nonfarm Private Payrolls 230K vs. 160K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 123K from 189K - April Average Workweek 34.4 vs. 34.5 Briefing.com consensus; prior 34.4 - April Average Workweek 34.4 vs. 34.5 Briefing.com consensus; prior 34.4 - BIG ONE FOR INFLATION OUTLOOK - April Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.5% vs. 0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3% Employment Situation Trend - Slowing economy - employment holding up well - How does that square?   Employment Chart Harbinger - Bank Credit is tightening (not much yet, but noticeable 1.5% drop) - 1.9% decline in bank credit in 1975. -  2.2% drop in bank credit in 2002. - 6.9% dip in bank credit between 2008 and 2010.   Credit Conditions Monday - Senior Loan Officer Report - Banks reported that lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans other than government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible and government residential mortgages, which remained basically unchanged. Meanwhile, demand weakened for all RRE loan categories. In addition, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Standards tightened for all consumer loan categories; demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans, while it remained basically unchanged for credit cards. - Market may see this (perversely) as good news as Fed could think this is bad and not raise... (The Upside Down) Oil Prices - Headlines - Thursday: Oil Prices Fall Due to Recession Fears - Friday: Oil Steadies - Traders Look To Future - Monday: Oil Higher: Recession Fears Abate - -3 days and story changes? --- Oil prices rose on Monday as fears of a recession in the U.S., which drove prices down for three straight weeks for the first time since November, started receding. Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $75.73 a barrel at 0624 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 45 cents, also 0.6%, at $71.79 a barrel. COVID EMERGENCY - OVER - COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency, World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared Friday. - COUNTS according to WHO - 765 million cases and 7 million deaths - Meanwhile - Rochelle Walensky will step down as director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at the end of June, an unexpected departure after more than two years leading the agency through an oft-criticized response to the biggest public health crisis in a century. Icahn - Short Seller Report - Hindenburg cost Carl > $10 Billion - IEP Stock on the ropes due to questionable marks and leverage

US equities were narrowly mixed in very uneventful Monday trading. There was an Initial negative market reaction to the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for April, though the report was largely as expected. Elsewhere, the latest NY Fed consumer survey showed 1Y inflation expectations down 0.3pp to 4.4%, though expected household spending growth is the weakest since Sep-21.

US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels after a late-afternoon recovery from midday lows. The NY Fed's April Empire manufacturing survey came in notably better on the headline and new-orders component; while prices paid continued to slow. The NAHB April homebuilder sentiment also beat, rising for the fourth-straight month. The debt ceiling back in the headlines with GOP Speaker McCarthy offering to raise the debt limit into next year in exchange for spending concessions.

With the CPI coming in slightly cooler than expected and producer prices unexpectedly falling, a lot of people think the Fed pivot is now in play and we will soon see an end to monetary tightening. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the possibility of a pivot, market reaction, and most importantly, the possible ramifications. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/3KZq9wD TOPICS DISCUSSED -Mainstream ignorance and Keynsian claptrap -NY Fed president either ignorant or lying -An overview of March CPI -Has the Fed really beaten inflation? -The Fed's nasty position -US budget deficit already over $1T Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

The recovery could help reduce inflation; Congress advances efforts to ban TikTok, other apps; Tyson Foods sued over early COVID response To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Nov 9 – FS Insider speaks with Dr. Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research. Ed previously served as an economist at the NY Fed, held positions at the Federal Reserve board of governors, and at the US Treasury...