Podcasts about gses

Join Bryan and our always-cheerful development director Jim Morrison (we call him J-Mo!) for a quick overview of Valuation Expo this August. Here are the Cliff's Notes: It's the biggest appraisal conference there is. You'll meet fellow appraisers and reps from the GSEs, AMCs, software companies, lenders, E&O insurance, education providers, and more. You'll get lots of CE and hear from speakers on big data, mobile tech, and UAD 3.6, which starts rolling out in September. And you'll have some fun along the way, at cocktail events, a cornhole tournament, the VE Open mini-golf competition, and numerous giveaways. Listen in to find out who's who and what's what at Valuation Expo this year. Valuation Expo, August 11-13, 2025Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, NV

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we go through how trade uncertainty is impacting the U.S. economy. Plus, Robbie sits down with Jeremy Potter and Brian Levy for a discussion on how the conforming credit box that once offered liquidity to the mortgage market is now fading into obsolescence with the rise of products like non-QM and other creative lending solutions. And we close with a look at what the latest producer price index report says about inflation in America after yesterday's CPI report brought a benign reading.Today's podcast is presented by Flyhomes, the leading wholesale lender for Buy Before You Sell solutions. Whether your borrowers run into DTI issues, need to unlock home equity for down payment, make a stronger, cash-like offer, or even move potentially with no cash out of pocket, Flyhomes provides a full suite of financial products to help them move forward, before selling their current home.

Send us a textIn this episode, we sit down with Olga Gorodetsky, a Director in Capital Markets at Fannie Mae, for an in-depth conversation about the role of Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) in the U.S. housing finance system. Olga walks us through the history and mission of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, explaining how these institutions provide liquidity and stability to the mortgage market. We explore how mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are created, who trades them, and why they are essential to the broader financial ecosystem. Olga also offers a clear explanation of what happened during the 2008 financial crisis that led to the conservatorship of the GSEs, what conservatorship means in practice, and how it continues to shape the debate over housing finance reform. Finally, we discuss the current state of the mortgage and capital markets, including recent policy developments and headlines that are evolving in realtime. Whether you're an investor, a homeowner, or simply curious about how mortgages connect to Wall Street, this episode offers timely insights and expert perspective on one of the most important — and often misunderstood — parts of the U.S. economy.Shop our LIBRARY of Self Paced Online Courses HEREJoin the Fixed Income Sales and Trading waitlist HERE Our content is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Managing Editor James Kleimann about the rising popularity of non-QM loans and the possibility of Fannie and Freddie widening the credit box. Related to this episode: GSEs could go public while staying under government control: Bloomberg | HousingWire ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠More info about HousingWire⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we go through some surprising insurance trends. Plus, Robbie sits down with Rob Chrisman to discuss how the mixed messages from the Trump administration about the future of the GSEs are impacting those in the mortgage industry. And we close with a look at the latest predictions about the demise of the economy.Today's episode is sponsored by CreditXpert—the credit optimization platform that helps today's top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums and close more loans. Download your free copy of the credit optimization playbook today at creditxpert.com/chrisman. 

Katie and Matt discuss Katie’s new bird, the legality of tariffs, the TACO trade, rooting for the nondelegation doctrine, implicit guarantees, the money to be made if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are re-privatized, stuffing Bitcoins into public companies and owning the global financial asset portfolio.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about the possibility of lower mortgage rates this summer with tariff drama and Trump's talk about an implicit guarantee for Fannie and Freddie. Related to this episode: Will an implicit guarantee keep mortgage rates from rising after release of GSEs? | HousingWire ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠More info about HousingWire⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about mortgage rates, home sales and the biggest risk of releasing the GSEs from conservatorship. Related to this episode: Bessent weighs mortgage rate risk in potential release of GSEs from conservatorship | HousingWire FHFA Director Pulte calls on Powell to lower interest rates | HousingWire ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠More info about HousingWire⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Keith discusses the mortgage landscape, emphasizing the benefits of cash-out refinances with Ridge Lending Group President, Caeli Ridge. They unpack the Trump administration's plan to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which could impact the mortgage market. Investors are discovering powerful strategies to leverage property equity and optimize their financial portfolios. By understanding innovative borrowing techniques, savvy real estate investors can access tax-efficient capital and create sustainable wealth-building opportunities. Consider working with a lender that specializes in investor-focused loan products and provides comprehensive education on the options available.  Resources: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/554 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking about the mortgage loan landscape in this era. Is title insurance a rip off today? Is it worth it for you to pay discount points at the closing table to get a lower interest rate? Learn about how a cash out refinance. Is your ability to borrow tax free, much like a billionaire does, and what are the dramatic changes that the current administration could take to alter the mortgage environment for years, all today on get rich education.    Speaker 1  0:34   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:20   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:36   Welcome to GRE from Liverpool, England to Livermore, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education, the voice of real estate. Since 2014 it's been estimated that there are about 800 billionaires in USA, and hey, you might be one of them, but there's a pretty good chance that you aren't well. When it comes to lending and mortgages, you can actually take a page out of a billionaires playbook and do something very much like what they do whenever you perform a cash out refinance if you've got dead equity in a property, and you can borrow against your own home to a greater extent than you can against your rental properties, even either one of those is a tax free event, you've now got tax free cash, and you can use that money on anything from investing it in the stock market To using your proceeds for a down payment on more real estate or buying a boat or going to Disneyland, and you didn't have to relinquish your asset at all. You continue to hold on to the asset. Now, the mechanics are somewhat different, sure, but when you do a cash out refinance like this, it's a bit like billionaires borrowing against their stock. Instead, you're borrowing against the value of your real estate. In fact, listening to this short clip, it's Trevor Noah talking about how billionaires do exactly this, and you'll notice that the crowd laughs because it actually sounds funny that you can really do this,    Speaker 2  3:22   the shares that they hold in a company, because it is an unrealized gain, right? So they go like, yeah, you're worth 300 billion, but we can't tax you on those stocks because you haven't sold the shares, so you don't, like, have the money. And I understand the argument. They go like, No, you don't have it. It's just what it's worth, because it will also crash, and then you have nothing, so we can't tax you on it. Then I'm like, Okay, I understand that. Then Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter, all right? He offers to buy it. And then he says in his offer, he goes, I'm putting up my Tesla stock as collateral. Then I'm like, so you do have it? Then he's like, no, no, no, no, I don't have it. I don't have it. I'm just gonna say so then they accept the offer. He now buys Twitter. Now that they've accepted his offer, he now goes to private equity and banks and like other rich people and whatever. He goes like, can you guys borrow me the money to buy Twitter? And then he's like, I'm I want to buy Twitter because I don't want to sell any of my Tesla shares, so I want to use your money to buy Twitter. And then it's like, but then they're like, What are we loaning it against? And he's like, Well, my Tesla shares. Then I'm going, like, Wait, so, so you, you can, you can buy a thing based on what you have, yes, but when we want to tax you, you can say, I don't have it. Do you hear what I'm saying here?   Keith Weinhold  4:46   Yeah, you can borrow against your real estate if you have substantial equity in it. We'll talk about just how much now billionaires borrow against their stock holdings using financial products like portfolio lines of credit or. For securities based loans. These are the names for how they do it, essentially taking out loans and using their stock as collateral. And this allows them to access cash without selling their assets and without incurring capital gains taxes, much like you can so you can say that you don't want to sell your property in you don't have to go through some capital raising round either, like a billionaire might have to when they're borrowing against their stock. You can just have a more standard mortgage application for your cash out refinance, and you don't even have to have a huge portfolio. I mean, even if you just own one 500k property with 50% equity in it, you can do this so it's available to most any credit worthy person, again, tax free. But of course, this doesn't mean that you always should take this windfall, because it often creates a higher monthly payment. You've got to be the one that makes that decision in controlling your cash flows, that is key. I'll talk about that some more with today's terrific guests. Also the Trump administration's desire to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac we're going to talk about that and what that would do to the mortgage landscape. I am in the USA today, next week, I'll be bringing you the show from London, England for the first time, the following week, from Edinburgh, Scotland. Yes, the mobile GRE Studio will be in effect. I typically set it up myself, and I usually don't need the help of the hotel staff for an appropriate Sound Studio either. And then shortly after that, I will be in Anchorage, Alaska, where I'm competing in these fantastic mountain running races. And then by next month, that's where I hope to meet up with you in person for nine days of learning and fun, as I'll be in Miami as part of the faculty for the terrific real estate guys invest or summon at sea, where we're all going to disembark from Miami and go to St Thomas, St Martin and the Bahamas, and then after that great event, it is a long flight from Miami back to Anchorage again. And that's got to be one of the longer domestic flights, not just in the nation, but in the world, Miami to Anchorage, and then shortly after that, I will be in the Great Northeast early this summer, New York and Pennsylvania, including for my high school reunion. So I'll really be putting the miles on these next couple months. One interesting thing that I've noticed for next week's show, where I'll be joining you from London, is how much I'm paying per night at both my hotel in England and then later my hotel in Scotland. That's obviously a short term real estate transaction. These are some of the more expensive places in the world, really. So next week and then the week after, I just think you'll find it interesting. I'll tell you how much I'm spending per night in both London and then Edinburgh. And they're both prime locations, where the hotels are the center of London and then right on Edinburgh's Royal Mile. That is in future weeks as for today, let's talk about the mortgage landscape with this week's familiar and terrific guest.   I'd like to welcome in one of the more recurrent guests in our history, so she needs little introduction. She's the longtime president of the mortgage company that's created more financial freedom for real estate investors than any lender in the nation because they specialize in income property loans. It's where I get my own loans for my own rental properties. Ridge lending group. Hey, welcome back to GRE Caeli ridge.    Caeli Ridge  8:57   Thank you, Keith. You know I love being here with you and your listeners. I appreciate you having me.   Keith Weinhold  9:01   You've helped us for so long. For example, who can forget way back in episode 56 Yeah, that's a deep scroll back when Chaley broke down each line of a good faith estimate for us, that's basically a closing statement sheet. She told us exactly what we pay for at the closing table, line by line like origination fee, recording costs and title insurance so helpful. It's just the sort of transparency that you get over there. Buyers pay for title insurance at the closing table. It is title insurance a rip off. A few years ago, a lot of people speculated that title insurance would fade away because the property's ownership could be transparent and accessible to everybody on the blockchain, but we don't really see that happening. So tell us about title insurance, and really, are we getting value in what we pay for there at the closing table?   Caeli Ridge  9:54   Well, I think the first thing I would say is that it really isn't going to be an option as far as I. Know, as long as the individual is going to source institutional funding leverage use of other people's money, they're going to require the lender, aka Ridge lending, or whoever you're working with, they're going to require that title insurance that ensures their first lien position. Doing that title search, first and foremost, is going to make it clear that there isn't some cloud on title, that there isn't some mechanic lien that had been sitting out there for however many years it may have just been around. And those types of things never go away. So for a lending perspective, it's going to be real important that that title insurance is paid for and in place to protect their interests, things like judgments, tax liens, like I said, a mechanic's lien, those will automatically take a first lien position in front of a mortgage. So obviously we're not going to risk that and find ourselves in second lien position in the event of default and somebody else is getting paid before we are. So not really an option. Is it a rip off? I don't know enough about how often it's paid out, and not to speak to that, but I will tell you that it isn't a choice.   Keith Weinhold  11:07   Title Insurance, like Shaylee was talking about. It protects against fraud related to the property's ownership, someone else claiming rights to the property, and this title search that an insurer does it also, yeah, it looks for those liens and encumbrances, including unpaid taxes, maybe unpaid HOA dues, but yeah, mortgage lenders typically require title insurance, and if you the borrower, you might think that's annoying. Well, it does make sense, because the bank needs to protect their collateral. If a bank ever has to foreclose, they need to have access to you, the borrower, to be able to do that without any liens or ownership claims from somebody else. Caeli, how often do title insurance companies mess up or have to pay out a claim? Does that ever happen?   Caeli Ridge  11:50   I mean, if I have been involved in a circumstances where that was the case, it's been so many years ago, they're pretty fastidious. I don't know that I could recall a circumstance where something had happened and the title insurance was liable. They go through the paces, man, they've got to make sure that, and they're doing deep dives and searches across nationwide to make sure that there isn't any unnecessary issue that's been placed on title Not that I'm aware of. No.    Keith Weinhold  11:50   Are there any of those other items that we tend to see on a good faith estimate that have had any interesting trends or changes to them in the past few years?    Caeli Ridge  12:27   Yeah, I've got a good one, and this is actually timely credit reports. So over the last couple of years, something has been happening with credit reports where, you know, maybe three, four years ago, a credit report, let's say a joint credit report, a husband and wife went and applied that credit report might cost 25 bucks. Well, now it's in excess of 100 plus. Some of what we're going to be talking about today, it kind of gets into the wish list of Jim neighbors, who is the president of the mortgage brokers Association. He's been talking to the administration about some of his wishes, and credit report fees is actually one of the things that they're wanting to attack and bringing those costs down for the consumer. So when we look at a standard Closing Disclosure today, credit report costs have increased significantly. I don't have the percentages, but by a large margin over the last couple of years,    Keith Weinhold  13:21   typically not one of your bigger costs, but a little noteworthy. There one thing that people might opt and choose to have on their good faith estimates, so that borrower therefore would actually pay more out of pocket with today's higher mortgage rates. And I'm sure not to say high, because historically, they are not high. Do we see more people opting to pay discount points at the closing table to get a lower rate and talk to us about the trade offs there   Caeli Ridge  13:46   right now, first and foremost, that there isn't a lot of option for investment property transactions, whether it be a purchase or refinance. There's not going to be that option where the consumer gets to choose to say, Okay, I want to pay points for a lower rate or not pay points for a higher rate the not paying points is the key here. There isn't going to be a zero point option for investment property transactions. And this gets a little bit convoluted, and then I'll circle back and answer the question of, when does it make sense to pay the points, more points versus less points? We have been in a higher rate environment that I think a lot of people have become accustomed to as a result secondary markets, where mortgage backed securities are bought and sold, they keep very close tabs on the trends and where they think things are headed. Well, something called YSP, that stands for yield, spread, premium, under normal market circumstances, a consumer can say, okay, Caeli, I don't want to pay any points. Okay, I'll take this higher interest rate, and I don't want to pay any points, because that higher interest rate is going to have YSP, yield, spread, premium to pay compensation to a lender, and you know, the other third parties that may be involved in that mortgage backed security. But. Sold and traded, etc, okay? They have that choice under normal market circumstances. Not the case right now, because when this loan sells the servicing rights, whoever is going to pick up the servicing rights, so when Mr. Jones goes to make his mortgage payment, he's going to cut a check to Mr. Cooper. That's a big one, right? Or Rocket Mortgage, or Wells Fargo, whoever the servicer is, the servicing rights are purchased at a cost. They have to pay for the servicing rights, and let's say that's 1% of this bundle of mortgage backed securities that they're purchasing. Well, they know the math is, is that that servicer is going to take about 36 months before that upfront cost is now in the black or profitable. This all will land together. Everybody, I promise you stick with me, so knowing that we've got about a 36 month window before a servicer that picked up the rights to service this mortgage is going to be profitable in a higher rate environment, as interest rates start coming down, what happens to the mortgage that they paid for the rights to service 12 months ago, 18 months ago, that thing is probably going to refinance right prior to the 36 month anniversary of profitability. So that YSP seesaw there is not going to be available for especially a non owner occupied transaction. So said another way, zero point rates are not going to be valid on a non owner occupied transaction in a higher rate environment when secondary markets understand that the loans that are secured today will very likely be refinanced prior to profitability on the servicing side of that mortgage backed security that is a risk to the lender, yes. So we know that right now you're not going to find a zero point option. Now that may be kind of a blanket statement. If you were getting a 30% loan to value owner occupied mortgage with 800 credit scores, you know that's going to be a different animal. And of course, you're going to have the option to not pay points. The risk for that is nothing. Okay, y SP is going to be available for you, the consumer, to be able to choose points at a lower rate, no points higher rate. When does it make sense to pay additional points? Let's say to reduce an interest rate, the break even math. And you know, I'm always talking about the math, the break even math is actually the formula is very simple. All you need to do is figure out the cost of the points. Dollar amount of the points, let's say it's $1,000 and that's what it's going to cost you to, say, get an eighth or a quarter or whatever the denomination is, in the interest rate reduction. But you aren't worried about the interest rate necessarily. You're looking at the monthly payment difference. So it's going to cost you $1,000 in extra points, but it's only going to save you $30 a month in payment when you divide those two numbers, what's that going to take you 33 months? 30 well, okay, and does that make sense? Am I going to refinance in 33 months? If the answer is no, then sure pay the extra 1000 bucks. But that's the math, the cost versus the monthly payment difference divide that that gives you the number of months it takes to recapture cost versus cash flow or savings, and then you be the determining factor on when that makes sense.    Keith Weinhold  18:10   It's pretty simple math. Of course, you can also factor in some inflation over time, and if you would invest that $1,000 in a different vehicle, what pace would that grow at as well? So we've been talking about the pros and cons of buying down your mortgage rate with discount points before we get into the administration changes. Cheley talk about that math in is it worth it to refinance or not? It's a difficult decision for some people to refinance today with higher mortgage rates than we had just a few years ago, and at the same time, we've got a lot of dead equity that's locked up.   Caeli Ridge  18:40   I would start first by saying, Are we looking to harvest equity? Are we pulling cash out, or are we simply doing a rate and term refinance where we're replacing one loan with another loan, if it's for rate and term, if we're simply replacing the loan that we have today with a new loan, that math is going to be pretty simple. Why would you replace 6% interest rate with a 7% interest rate? If all other things were equal, you wouldn't unless there was a balloon feature, or maybe an adjustable rate mortgage or something of that nature involved there that you have to make the refinance. So taking that aside, focusing on a cash out refinance, and when does it make sense? So there's a little extra layered math here. The cash that you're harvesting, the equity that you're harvesting, first of all, borrowed funds are non taxable. What are we going to do with that pile of cash? Are we going to redeploy it for investing more often than not talking to investors? The answer is yes. What is that return going to look like? So you've got to factor that in as well, and then we'll get to the tax benefit in a moment. But generally speaking, I like to as long as the cash flow is still there, okay, you've got to have someone else covering that payment. Normally, there's exceptions to every rule. I don't normally advise going negative on a cash out refi. There are exceptions. Okay, please hear me. But otherwise, as long as the existing rents are covering and that thing is still being paid for by somebody else, then what you want to do is look at that monthly payment. Difference again, versus what you're getting out of it. And then you divide those two numbers pretty simply, and it'll take you how long. And then you've got a layer in the cash flow that you're going to get from the new acquisitions, and whether that be real estate or some other type of investment, whatever the return is, you're going to be using that to offset. And then finally, I would say, make sure that you're doing adding in the tax benefit. These are rental properties guys, right? So closing costs can be deducted now that may end up hurting debt to income ratio down the road. So don't forget, Ridge lending is going to be looking at your draft tax returns. Very, very important to ensure that we're setting you up for success and optimizing things like debt to income ratio on an annual basis.   Keith Weinhold  20:40   Now, some investors, or even primary residence owners might look at their first and only mortgage on a property, see that it's 4% and really not want to touch that. What is the environment and the appetite like today for having a refinance in the form of a second mortgage? That way you can keep your first mortgage in place and, say, 4% get a second mortgage at 7% or more. How does that look for both owner occupied and non owner occupied properties today?   Caeli Ridge  21:07   you're going to be looking at prime, plus, in many cases, if you don't want to mess with a first lien, a second lien mortgage is typically going to be tied to an index called prime. Those of you that are familiar with this have probably heard of that. Indicee. There's lots of them. The fed fund rate, by the way, is an index. There's lots of them. The Treasury is also another index. Prime is sitting, I think, at seven and a half percent. So you're probably going to be looking at rate wise, depending on occupancy and credit score and all of those llpas that we always talk about, loan level, price adjustment. You know, it could be prime plus zero, it could be prime plus four. So interest rates could range between, say, seven and a half, on average, up to 11 even 12% depending on those other variables. More often than not, those are going to be interest only. So make sure that you're doing that simple math there. And I would prefer if I'm giving advice the second liens, the he loan, which is closed ended, very much like your first mortgage, it's just in second lien position. It's amortized over a certain period of time, closed ended. Not as big a fan of that. If you can find the second liens, especially for non owner occupied, I would encourage it to be that open ended HELOC type.    Keith Weinhold  22:15   What are we looking at for combined loan to value ratios with second mortgages    Caeli Ridge  22:19   on an owner occupied I think you'd be happy to get 90. I think I've heard that in some cases, they can go up to 95% in my opinion, that would go as high as they'll let you go right on a non owner occupied, I think you'd be real lucky to find 80, and probably closer to 70.    Keith Weinhold  22:34   That really helps a lot with our planning. Well, the administration that came in this year has made some changes that can create some upheaval, some things to pay attention to in the mortgage market. We're going to talk about that when we come back. You're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Ridge lending Group President, Caeli Ridge I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.    The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group  NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Chaeli Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866   Hal Elrod  24:38   this is Hal Elrod, author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't put your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  24:55   Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking about mortgages again, because this is one. Where leverage comes from. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're sitting down with the president of ridge lending group, Caeli Ridge, and I know that she has some knowledge and some updates on new administration leadership and some potential changes for the market there. What can you tell us? Caeli   Caeli Ridge  25:16   I'm pretty excited about this one, and I'm watching very diligently to see how it unfolds. So the new director of the FHFA Federal Housing Finance Agency, all is Bill Pulte. This is the grandson of Pulte Homes. Okay, smart guy. I'm excited to see what he's going to come in and do. Well. He had recently, I think in the last couple of weeks, he put out in the news wires asking for feedback from the powers that be, related to Fannie and Freddie, what improvements they would like to see. So first up was Jim neighbors. He is the president of the mortgage brokers Association. He had a few very specific wish list items, if you will. And the first one on his list was the elimination of LLP, as for non owner occupied and second home. So let me just kind of paint a picture here, because there's some backstory I think is important. So an LLPA, for those of you that have never heard that term before, stands for a loan level price adjustment. And a loan level price adjustment is a positive number or a negative number that associates with the individual loan characteristics. So things like loan to value or loan size, occupancy is a big ll PA, the difference between an owner occupied where you live and one that you're going to use as a rental property, that's a big one. Credit score, property type, is it a single family? Is it a two to four? Is this a purchase? Is it a refi? Anyway, all of those different characteristics are ll pas. Well, if we take a step back in time, gosh, about three years ago now, Mark Calabria, at the time, was the director of the FHFA, and he had imposed increases, specific increases. This was middle of 22 I want to say specific increases to the LL pas for non owner occupied property. So if anybody kind of remembers that time, we started to really see points and interest rates take that jump sometime in 2022 more than just the traditional interest rate market and the fluctuations. This was very material to investment property and second home, but we'll focus on the investment property. So Mr. Jim neighbors came in and said, first and foremost, I'd like to see those removed, and I want to read something to the listeners here, because I thought it was very interesting. This is something I've been kind of preaching from the the rooftops, if you will, for many, many years. Yeah, we've got neighbors sticking up for investors here. He really is. And I Yeah, well, yes, he is. And more often than not, they're focused on the owner occupied so I'm just going to kind of read. I've got my cheat sheet here. I want to make sure I get it all right for everybody. So removal of the loan level price adjustments on investment properties and second homes, he noted that these risk based fees charged by Fannie and Freddie discourage responsible buyers from purchasing second homes and investment properties, with that insignificant increase to cost. And here's the important part, originally introduced to account for additional credit risk, many of the pandemic era llpa increases were not based on updated risk metric. In fact, data has shown that loans secured by investment properties often have strong credit profiles and lower than expected default rates. I mean, anybody that has been around long enough to see what we've come from, like, 08,09, and when we had the calamity of right, the barrier for entry for us to get any conventional financing as investors has been harsh. I mean, I make that stupid joke of vials of blend DNA samples. But aside from it being an icebreaker, it kind of feels true. We really get the short end of the stick. And I feel like as investors especially, post 08,09, our credit profiles, our qualifications, the bar is so high for us, the default risk there has largely been removed. We've got so much skin in the game. With 20 25% down, credit score is much higher, debt to income ratios more scrutinized, etc, etc. So I think that this is, if it passes muster. I think this is going to be a real big win for the non owner occupied side of agency, Fannie, Mae, Freddie, Mac lending.   Keith Weinhold  29:13    The conventional wisdom is, is that if you the borrower, get into financial trouble, you're more likely to walk away from your rental properties than you are your own home and neighbors, sort of like a good neighbor here sticking up for us and stating that, hey, us, the investors, we're actually highly credit worthy people.   Caeli Ridge  29:29   Yeah, absolutely. So fingers crossed. Everybody say your prayers to the llpa and mortgage investor rates gods.   Keith Weinhold  29:37   we'll be attentive to that. What other sorts of changes do we have with the administration? For example, I know that Trump and some others in the administration have talked about privatizing the GSEs, those government sponsored enterprises, Fannie, Mae, Freddie Mac and what kind of disruption that would create for the industry. Is it really any credence to that?   Caeli Ridge  29:58   They've been talking about it for. For quite a while. I mean, as long as Trump has been kind of on the scene, that's been maybe a wish list for him. I don't see that happening over the next years. That is an absolute behemoth to unpack and make a reality. Speaking of Mark Calabria, he was really hot and heavy on the trails of doing that. So what this is, you guys so fatty Freddy, are in conservatorship that happened back post 08,09, and privatizing them and making them where it is not funded, or conservatorship within the United States government. Now it still has those guarantees against default. It's a very complicated, complex, nuanced dynamic of mortgage backed securities, but if we were to privatize them at some point now, am I saying that that's a bad thing? No, not necessarily, but I think it has to be very carefully executed, and because there are so many moving parts, I do not think that just one term of presidency is going to make that happen. If we do it, it's going to be years down the road from now. Is my crystal ball. I don't think we're going to see that anytime soon.    Keith Weinhold  30:58   That's interesting to know. Are there any other industry changes that are important, especially for investors, whether that has to do with the change in administration or anything else?   Caeli Ridge  31:08    Well, specific to that wish list from Mr. Neighbors, one of the other things that he had asked, and there were quite a few, for owner occupied changes as well, he wants to reduce the seasoning for cash out refinances of investment properties, which would be huge good. Yeah, right now it's 12 months on a cash out refinance given very specific acquisition details. Okay, I won't go down that rabbit hole, but currently, if you haven't met exactly these certain benchmarks, you may have to wait 12 months to pull cash out of a property from the day that you acquire it, he's asking that that be pulled back to about six months, which would be nice   Keith Weinhold  31:46   reducing the seasoning period from 12 months to six months, meaning that an investor a borrower, would only need to own that property for that shorter duration of time prior to performing a refinance.   Caeli Ridge  31:58    Cash out refinance, no seasoning required on a rate and term. This is specific for cash out. But again, for cash out, but exactly right   Keith Weinhold  32:04   now, one trend that I think about sometimes, especially when I think back to 2008 2009 days since I was an investor through that time, is, are there any signs in the reduction of the appetite or the propensity to lend, to make loans. So how freely is credit flowing?    Caeli Ridge  32:25   I think pretty freely. I'm not seeing that they're tightening the purse strings. That's not the lens that I'm looking at it from, and I try to keep that brush stroke broad. There have been, I think that on the post, close side, there's been a little extra from Fannie Freddie, and I think that has to do with profitability markers. But overall, I'm not seeing that products are disappearing necessarily, or that guidelines are really becoming even more cumbersome. If anything, I would say it's maybe the reverse of that, and I do believe that probably is part and parcel to this administration and the real estate background that comes with it.   Keith Weinhold  32:59   One other thing I pay attention to, but it just really hasn't been much of a story lately. Are delinquencies in foreclosures. It seems like they've ticked up a little bit, but they're still both really historically low and basically a delinquency being defined as when a borrower makes one late payment, and foreclosures being the more severe thing, typically a 120 days late or more. Any trends there? I'm not   Caeli Ridge  33:24   seeing any now. And in fact, I would tell you that, because we focus so much on investor needs, first payment default is I can count on less than one hand, if I had to, how many times I've seen that happen with our clients over 25 years. So nothing noteworthy there for me.    Keith Weinhold  33:40   Yes. I mean, today's borrowers are just flush with equity. Nationally, there's a loan to value ratio of 47% which is healthy, in a sense. On average, borrowers have a 53% equity position. Of course, the next thing, I think, is like, I don't really know if that's a smart strategy. They're not really getting that much leverage out there. But I think a lot of people just have the old mentality of get it paid off.    Caeli Ridge  34:06   And I think that depending on where you are in your journey, I mean, if you're in phase three, right, where you're just really looking at these investments, these nest eggs to carry you into your retirement and or for legacy reasons, fine, but otherwise, I may argue the point in that I don't care that you have a 3% interest rate on an investment property, or whatever it may be, if it's sitting there idle and as long as it can cash flow, the true chances of those individuals of keeping that mortgage that they got in 2020, 2021, etc, at those ridiculously low interest rates and stroking 360 payments later to pay it to zero is a fraction of a percent right now, whether they're on the sidelines for something else, I don't know, but that debt, equity, I think, is hurting them more than a 3% interest rate is helping them.   Keith Weinhold  34:52    And a lot of times, the mindset of someone is, if they don't need to build wealth anymore, and they're older and they already built wealth, they don't care if they're loaned to value. Was down to zero, and they have it paid off, whereas someone that's in the wealth building phase probably wants to get more leverage. Yeah, Chaley at risk lending group, there you see so many applications come in, and especially since you're an investor centric lender, I like to ask you what trends you're seeing. What are people buying? What are people doing? Are they refinancing? Are they paying loans off? Are they trying to take out more credit? Are there any overall trends with investors that you see in there    Caeli Ridge  35:29   right now? I think the all in one is a clear winner there. The all in one, that first lien, HELOC, that you and I talked about, we broke my little corner of the internet with that one, that one is a front runner for sure, on the refinance side, specifically, we are seeing quite a bit more on the refi side of things, that equity is kind of just sitting there. So even though, if the on one isn't a good fit for them, I'm seeing investors that are willing to tap into that equity instead of just sitting around and waiting for them to potentially lose some equity if the housing market does start to take some decline. And then I would say, on the purchase transaction side, something that's kind of piqued my interest is the pad split. I'm looking at that more often where, for those that are not familiar, you can probably speak more to this, Keith, they're buying single family resident properties, even two to four unit properties, and a per bedroom basis, turning those into rental properties. And they're looking to be quite profitable. So I've got my eyes on that too.   Keith Weinhold  36:23   before we ask how we can learn more about you and what you do in there at Ridge Kayle. Is there any last thing that you'd like to share? Maybe a question I did not think about asking you, but should have.    Caeli Ridge  36:35   I would like to share with your listeners that if they are not working with a lender that focuses on their education and has that diversity of loan product that we have, that they're probably in the wrong support group. You need to be working with a lender that has a nationwide footprint and that has diversity of loan product to cover whatever methodology of real estate investing that you're looking for, and really puts a fine touch on the education of your qualifications and your goals as they relate to underwriters guidelines   Keith Weinhold  37:10   what we're talking about, and I know this through my own experience in dealing with Ridge, since I use them for my own loans myself, is sometimes Ridge might inform You that, hey, you can go and do this and make this deal now, but that's going to mess up this bigger thing 12 months down the road, whereas if you talk with an everyday sort of owner occupant mortgage company, oh, they're just not going to talk like that, because owner occupants, they might only buy every seven years, or something like that. And investors are different, and you need to have that foresight and look ahead. Caeli, this has been great, a really informative conversation about the pulse of the market. Tell us what products that you offer in there.   Caeli Ridge  37:50   Our menu is very, very diverse. I would say what. It's probably easier to describe what we don't offer. We do not have bear lot loans or land loans. We're not offering those right now. We do not have second lien HELOCs currently. We suspended that two years ago. But otherwise, guys, we're going to have everything that you're going to need. So just very quickly, I'll rattle off Fannie Freddie, okay, those golden tickets that we talk about, we've got DSCR loans, bank statement loans, asset depletion loans, ground up construction, short term bridge loans for fix and flip or fix and hold. We have our All In One that's my favorite first lien. HELOC, we have commercial loan products for commercial property and residential on a cross collateralization basis. So very, very robust in the loan product space.   Keith Weinhold  38:33   Caeli Ridge, it's been valuable as always. And then Ridge lending group.com, or your phone number   Caeli Ridge  38:39   855-747-4343, 855-74-RIDGE, , and then to reach us an email, if that's your better mechanism to contact us info@ridgelendinggroup.com   Keith Weinhold  38:50   that's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.    Caeli Ridge  38:53   Appreciate it. Keith,   Keith Weinhold  39:00   Yeah, terrific information from Chaley. As always, if you're enamored of borrowing tax free, like a billionaire, against your real estate, they sure can help you out with that and determine whether that's right. It doesn't mean that you always should, but if you have investment ideas for debt equity, and you're attentive to cash flows, run the numbers with them and see if it's worthwhile. As far as new purchases, we all know that soured affordability has made it especially tough for first time homebuyers, and there's more data out there that shows that tenant durations are historically long, longer than they usually are. Tenants are staying in places longer because they have to. Investor purchases have stayed strong, though investors have been buying about the same proportion of single family homes and making them rentals that they have historically and Redfin tells us that. The value of properties that investors have purchased is up more than 6% year over year, so investors are still buying and that makes sense. We're in this era where there's more uncertainty than usual, there's higher stock volatility than usual, and more people are sort of asking themselves, where would I get a better return than on income property, and where would my return be more stable today than in income property as well? If you work with Ridge lending group for a time, you're probably going to understand why I personally use them for my own loans. You'll notice that they really understand what investors need. Thanks to Caeli Ridge today and thank you for being here too. But as always, you weren't here for me. You were here for you until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  40:56   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  41:20   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text. GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich education.com.    

At the start of 2025, the multifamily sector encountered significant market volatility due to the transition to a new presidential administration. While the broad tariffs implemented in early April have intensified economic uncertainty, Berkadia sees several promising signs on the horizon. In this episode of GlobeSt.com's Thought Leadership podcast series, we delve into the evolving multifamily financing landscape with Josh Bodin, Senior Vice President of Securities Trading at Berkadia. Bodin sits down with contributor Ilana Polyak to talk about Berkadia's bullish multi-year outlook and details of what's behind his optimism. The conversation explores: ●     How tariffs are shifting inflation forecasts and the Fed's rate-cutting strategy ●     Why declining construction starts, improving fundamentals, and the single-family housing affordability crisis are creating a compelling multi-year bull case for multifamily ●     The strong debt financing environment with GSEs, private debt funds, banks, and life insurance companies all participating ●        How market stability—rather than specific interest rate levels—drives transaction volume in commercial real estate *The podcast was recorded on April 4, 2025.

In this episode of The Consumer Finance Podcast, Chris Willis is joined by Troutman Pepper Locke colleagues Lori Sommerfield and Lane Page to dissect two unexpected fair lending developments under the new Trump administration. First, we unpack the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's (CFPB) surprising move to vacate its own redlining consent order with Townstone Financial, Inc. We then analyze the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) dramatic policy shift requiring two government sponsored enterprises (GSEs, namely Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) to terminate special purpose credit programs (SPCPs), as well as the broader implications for mortgage lenders. Join us for the twists and turns of this evolving fair lending regulatory landscape and learn what steps institutions should consider taking to mitigate risks.

Katy O'Donnell, the financial services reporter for Politico, dives into a series of surprising moves by new FHFA Director Bill Pulte, including firing the CEO of Freddie Mac, appointing himself chair of both GSEs, and cutting programs.

This podcast segment covers the FHFA's decision to rescind its UDAP oversight rule for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, easing compliance burdens and reinforcing the FTC's authority over consumer protection enforcement.-------------------------------------------------------------Adam DeSanctis, VP of Communication at Mortgage Bankers AssociationAs a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been significant actors in the housing market for nearly a century. Ever since market distress pushed Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship of the Federal Housing Finance Authority in 2008, policymakers have sought to transition the firms back into more privatized roles. Reform discussions have accelerated after the November elections, but any massive changes would have to be judicious and likely require bipartisan support. In this episode, we interview Walt Schmidt, Manager of Mortgage Strategies with FHN Financial, about the history of GSEs in the housing market, potential reforms in the coming years, and what these changes would mean for the MBS market.

Should the GSEs be privatized? On the latest Walker Webcast, Willy was joined by three of the industry's leading voices to debate this hot-button issue:  Jim Millstein, Co-Chairman, Guggenheim Securities Jim Parrott, Owner, Parrott Ryan Advisors Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics  They covered the pros and cons, potential economic ripple effects, the impact on single vs. multifamily, and the real-world implications for investors, lenders, homebuyers, and taxpayers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Jim Lockhart, senior fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center, about streamlining the government — from tackling the national debt to getting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of conservatorship. Lockhart was the director of FHFA during the financial crisis and was a member of the TARP Oversight Board. He also served as Vice Chairman of Wilbur Ross' private equity firm. Related to this episode: HUD to cut 50% of its workforce in latest Trump purge | HousingWire HousingWire | YouTube More info about HousingWire   Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

If you've completed an appraisal in the past week, you'll want to hear this. The GSEs' new time adjustment requirements went into effect on February 4th, and they come with some major changes for appraisers. To break it all down, we've brought in Matthew Hyatt from True Footage to explain what appraisers need to do to stay compliant.In this episode, we cover:✅ What the new policy means for appraisers✅ How to properly document time adjustments in your reports✅ What resources are available to help you navigate these changesDon't submit your next appraisal without understanding these updates! Tune in now to stay ahead of the curve.

A new administration is in charge—what does that mean for appraisers? In this episode, we sit down with Mark Calabria, former Director of the FHFA and author of Shelter from the Storm, to break it all down.We'll dive into the feasibility of government spending cuts, the impact of employees returning to the office, and the future of the GSEs. Will we finally see the end of conservatorship? Mark shares his expert insights on what's next for real estate, housing policy, and finance.At The Appraisal Buzzcast, we host weekly episodes with leaders and experts in the appraisal industry about current events and relevant topics in our field. Subscribe and turn on notifications to catch our episode premieres every Wednesday!

Enjoy this unique conversation with Christian Etienne, a seasoned expert in the real estate and reverse mortgage world. Recognized as an industry expert, Christian and his teams have managed and liquidated more than 80,000 real estate assets nationwide for a variety of GSEs, large banking institutions, and private equity portfolios.From his early days in South Louisiana to his current life in the Houston suburbs, Christian's career trajectory - from title insurance to mastering the nuances of reverse mortgages - offers a rare glimpse into the challenges and responsibilities in this niche industry. We examine the changing landscape of the mortgage and real estate markets post-Global Financial Crisis and the pressures it faces today. Rising taxes, insurance costs, and the specter of mortgage defaults in hurricane-prone areas signal potential mortgage defaults, while the commercial real estate sector grapples with its own set of challenges amidst new retail developments and the persistent issue of vacant office spaces, all compounded by rising interest rates. This episode serves as a comprehensive guide for investors and asset managers, highlighting the strategic decisions necessary amidst these market fluctuations and the anticipation of future adjustments. Connect further with Christian Etienne at LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/cdetienne/.Unlock elite low risk investment opportunities tailored to your priorities. Let our expert team maximize your returns while you focus on what matters most. Join our family of successful investors creating a lasting legacy of financial wealth and community impact together. Start or elevate your portfolio today. Email bill@firstliencapital.com or go to https://www.firstliencapital.com to invest with us.Stay connected with Bill Bymel and First Lien Capital:Linktree: https://linktr.ee/billbymelTo learn more, visit:https://billbymel.com/Listen to more episodes on Mission Matters:https://missionmatters.com/author/bill-bymel/

USPAP doesn't mention time adjustments.  They are not useless or unnecessary.  Measuring and analyzing changes in market conditions are critical and fundamental to real estate appraisal. Indeed, they are the foundation of an accurate opinion of value. This is simply because such a value conclusion has as its base a specific date in time.  This is the effective date of appraisal. So, from within the neighborhood boundaries appraisers delineate at the beginning of the appraisal report, they must analyze sufficient sales data. To do what?   To determine if there have been any changes in market conditions over the passage of time. Typically, this time starts when the comparable goes under contract.  Then it ends on the effective date of the appraisal. Has the market has measurably changed over that period?  That change means the appraiser should market-adjust the comps up- or downward, as the market demands. Again, USPAP doesn't mention time adjustments.  But this raises the question of which time period should the appraiser measure? As you'll understand from the podcast, the GSEs assume the appraiser will measure the subject's relevant market(s) over at least twelve (12) months.  There is no black-and-white answer to the question, “How far back should I go for time adjustment data?” 12-months is a minimum, however. Since USPAP doesn't mention time adjustments, assume a twelve percent (12%) net increase over that one (-1-) year period.  Assume prices increased twelve percent (12%) from January to August but went flat as of September 1st.  If a comp went under contract September 14th, closed escrow November 27th, and the effective date of your appraisal is December 23rd, your time adjustment would be zero (-0-). The market went flat three (-3-) months ago. This is, therefore, the difference between the annual change per year and any current market trends.

Send us a textIn this episode of "The Skinny On..." we unpack the history and details behind the recently announced acquisition of Shutterstock by Getty. This is a great case study for anyone wanting to understand which synergies investors prioritize in a merger as we walk through the ownership structure & market implications.We then shift gears to talk about the 100 basis point selloff we've seen in 10 year notes since the fall, half of which has occurred over the past thirty days. Will 10 year notes hit 5.00%? And are there any seasonal factors to take into account behind the move?Piggybacking off a recent article by Matt Levine, we dive a little into the hoopla around GSE privatization talk, explaining the history of Fannie and Freddie, the conservatorship resulting from the financial crisis, and you'll learn why you should never use the term "bailout" at a cocktail party with Kristen.Finally, we react to the news that JPMorgan is requiring everyone back in the office 5 days a week, and muse upon different ways financial firms could potentially leverage a creative, bespoke work schedule to foster the ownership mentality we see ourselves in the startup world.  Our Investment Banking and Private Equity Foundations course is LIVE: Learn more HEREOr for our "Express Workout", our one hour top 5 technicals you must know for investment banking Masterclass, purchase for $49 HEREOur content is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

The Daily Business and Finance Show - Tuesday, 31 December 2024 We get our business and finance news from Seeking Alpha and you should too! Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium for more in-depth market news and help support this podcast. Free for 14-days! Please click here for more info: Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium News Today's headlines: Bill Ackman says common stocks of GSEs offer 'large asymmetric upside' Stock markets will close on Jan. 9 for Pres. Jimmy Carter's National Day of Mourning MicroStrategy adds another 2,138 bitcoins to balance sheet Trim the Mag 7 and invest in lower valuation dividend growth stocks – Miramar Capital SA Sentiment: This energy sector is a popular choice for 2025 Weekly ETF flows: Six out of 11 sectors record outflows; bitcoin sees first outflow since Trump's victory in November Rigetti, D-Wave lead quantum stocks lower on Monday as year draws to close Credit card charge-offs hit highest level since 2010 - report Anheuser-Busch InBev loses control of its joint venture in Russia Explanations from OpenAI ChatGPT API with proprietary prompts. This podcast provides information only and should not be construed as financial or business advice. This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Have you lost your enthusiasm for our valuation industry? Do you feel disconnected and uninspired? Welcome to another insightful episode of Indispensable Appraisers! In this Podcast Jeff Hicks speaks with Lori Noble, SRA ARCC Mission to Uncover Appraisal Control Fraud * The importance of consumer protection in the appraisal process *GSEs' attempts to minimize the use of appraisals and undermine their independence *Lori serves rural Appalachia * Cindy Chance's leadership and messaging created momentum…which was abruptly lost with her departure * Appraisal bias has been proven not to be a systemic issue   Watch on YouTube https://youtu.be/a92Mw45rQY0  Just call my cell 813-230-3798 or e-mail me Jeff@realwired.com. Subscribe to our weekly blog: https://realwired.com/blog/ www.realwired.com   #Realwired #Youconnect#Datacomp #IndispensableAppraisers

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with investment banker and author Chris Whalen about the possibilities and challenges of bringing the GSEs — Fannie and Freddie — out of conservatorship. Whalen edits The Institutional Risk Analyst newsletter and has held positions in organizations such as the House Republican Conference Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear, Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings. Related to this episode: Broeksmit: MBA ready to work on GSEs' exit from conservatorship | HousingWire Chris Whalen | LinkedIn HousingWire | YouTube More info about HousingWire   Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A hill to die on.  That sounds way too serious for a real estate appraisal podcast, right?  These are supposed to be about USPAP, and education, and more practical stuff.  But I've been studying on this topic for some time.  Frankly, what AMCs do (or don't do) does not bother me as much as it does some appraisers.  Those appraisers complain that AMCs do not distinguish between their gross fees and the proration of that fee that goes to the appraiser.  That's true.  But when you buy a car, the dealer does not make transparent the contributory cost of the spark plugs and drive shaft, either. And the fees the AMCs pay are not, in my opinion, a hill to die on, at least not right now.  That time is coming - soon.  So, unless the AMC withholds some pertinent information from the appraiser, or somehow misrepresents the situation, then the appraiser sets the fee by accepting it.  But there is a hill to die on when it comes to AMCs.  And that hill is USPAP, of which all AMCs, you'd think, would be aware.  But while the GSEs are pushing appraisal waivers, it also seems AMCs are stressing appraisers to accept lower fees for the same quantity of work, all to sustain the AMCs' fee structure.  Remember, the AMC can ask the appraiser anything it wants to ask.  If, however, that request includes a knowledgeable request to violate USPAP, then it is time the appraiser should fire that AMC and get a new client. Today, right now, get out of AMC work and into private work.  I'll be happy to consult with you on that.  And make sure your E&O insurance is as relevant as possible.  It will help to have expert legal counsel in your phone's directory, too!

We've been hearing the rumblings: Some appraisers believe the end is near for the appraisal profession. Listen in as Bryan and his guest Simon Blackburn discredit that notion. Blackburn is founder and CEO of MtgeFi, a company that forecasts mortgage trends. In the episode, he discusses his recent article, "Top 10 Reasons Appraisals Are Here to Stay and Critical to U.S. and Global Markets."

The Lykken on Lending program will feature our Weekly Mortgage Updates with Adam DeSanctis and his MBA Mortgage Minute, and then Les Parker's TMSpotlight, a macroeconomic perspective on the economy with a music parody. That leads to Matt Graham of MBS Live providing you a rate & market update, followed by David Kittle, Chief Executive Officer @ Cypress Mortgage Capital, to discuss mortgage originations. Then we have Alice Alvey of Union Home providing a regulatory & legislative update, then Allen Pollack giving us a Tech Report on the latest technology impacting our industry. We also have commentaries provided by our Consultants, Bill Corbet and Marc Helm, Senior Executive Partner @ Transformational Mortgage Solutions, talking about Loan Servicing and the “Agencies”.

One of the purposes of this podcast is to make you mad.  Another is to open your eyes to the power the analytics of the cost approach have to analyze sales.  Another is to anger you.  About what?  About the depth of its questions and what is likely to be the shallowness of your answers to them.  With any luck at all, this podcast will do both.  If it does, then you're paying attention.  Thank you!  If it does not, then I'm not doing a proper job as a USPAP instructor.  I'll need to work smarter to open your eyes. Again, I want to make you mad.  It is clear most appraisers do not like to engage in the analytics of the cost approach.  Generally, we are not too familiar with it since most of its protocols are not market oriented.  And there is a lot of math involved.  Remember that four out of three appraisers do not understand math.  The GSEs make it clear that they do not think the cost approach results in a reliable indication of market value.  So, it is clear that most appraisers, because of these limitations, do not appreciate the deep analytical power the cost approach really has.  Most of us simply do not understand how the protocols of the cost approach help us to come to a credible opinion of market value.  Therefore, I'm going to ask you 10 questions on the cost approach and stuff related to it.  After we've finished with them, you probably will still not like to tackle the cost approach (and for the same reasons).  Nevertheless, you just may have a better understanding and appreciation of its powerful analytical capabilities. And remember to keep your E&O Insurance up to date, and understand the need for legal counsel.

Ryan Donovan, the head of the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks, pushes back against criticisms that the government-sponsored enterprises have strayed from their mission. He outlines what the FHLBs want as part of a reform effort by their regulator.

The Mortgage Bankers Association announces that FHFA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac have delayed the implementation of their Reconsideration of Value (ROV) policies to October 31st, following MBA's request for an extension to allow lenders more time to comply.-------------------------------------------------------------Adam DeSanctis, Director of Public Affairs at Mortgage Bankers AssociationAs a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

There are some of our appraisal fellows whose grasp of the concept USPAP and Competence is yet to be as strong as it could or should be.  In a 15-ish minute podcast, it is simply not possible to look into this subject with any depth or conviction.  So we won't.  But we will look at what USPAP says about the topic.  Note to our friends on the ASB:  In the next 7-hour USPAP update class, perhaps it would be possible to devote 30-minutes to the miniscule and trivial grammatical changes you made to the document.  Then, devote 6.5 hours to something important and relevant such as competence, how to get it, and why it is important.  After all, the GSEs are sending appraisers to their state boards for discipline over the component issues of Competence and appraisers' ignorance of them.  How about helping us out, Guys, what do you say? OK.  Rant over.  Back to USPAP and Competence.  In USPAP, there is no definition of of competence, competency, competent, and so forth. (There is not one in the 6th ed. of The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal, either). This despite the fact USPAP refers to these terms over 300 times. This is not an oversight.  There are plenty of definitions out there in dictionaries and other professional texts.  Some of these are in the podcast, so please listen to hear them.  Or check them out for yourself. So, in what we do, is an understanding of the concept of USPAP and Competence important?  Is it even relevant in real estate appraisal?     I say that it is of major importance to us, what we do, and how we do it.  Now, you're free to disagree with me.  You should, really.  But do the research  yourself.  Eventually, you'll agree with me.  So, why not start now?  

Consultorio bursátil de julio de 2024 en el que Adrián Godás y Paco Lodeiro respondemos a las preguntas de los oyentes. Las preguntas generales de este mes son sobre: Sobre el reality La Fiebre del Oro, cómo elegir fondos, qué pasos a seguir cuando te opan una empresa en cartera, qué pasa cuando las acciones de una empresa dejan de cotizar, la regla de los 2 meses, diversificar al máximo invirtiendo en índices y sobre las reservas de petróleo, Y las dudas sobre empresas y sectores son sobre las GSEs, invertir en cobre, GPW y FlatexDeGiro y sobre Adriatic Metals. Patrocinador del programa Paleobull, con código de descuento para los oyentes.

Unlock the secrets of today's commercial real estate market with Adam Gower Ph.D, founder of GowerCrowd.com and a 30+ year real estate veteran with over $1.5 billion of CRE investment and finance experience who today builds digital marketing systems for real estate professionals who want to raise equity capital online.Adam and I are talking about his experience managing over a billion dollars in investments, real estate syndication, crowdfunding and his unique insights into wealth preservation. I'm revealing some of First Lien Capital's innovative strategies for investing in sub-performing and non-performing first lien mortgages, including how he navigate acquisition opportunities from banks, GSEs, and secondary markets.Explore with us the economic and political factors shaping the market, including the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates amid inflation concerns. Contrast the current banking flexibility with the rigidity seen during the global financial crisis and understand why distressed commercial assets haven't flooded the market as many predicted. And we're also sharing a few of our tips on enhancing your real estate brand and the importance of building trust for building your portfolio of investments.Connect further with Adam on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/gowercrowd/, at www.GowerCrowd.com or email Adam@GowerCrowd.com or call us on 213-761-1000To securely invest with a partner that cares about your investment priorities and provides low risk with maximized returns, please consider joining our successful investing family and let us create a legacy of financial and community impact together. Please email bill@firstliencapital.com or go to https://www.firstliencapital.com.Stay connected with Bill Bymel and First Lien Capital:Linktree: https://linktr.ee/billbymelTo learn more, visit:https://billbymel.com/Listen to more episodes on Mission Matters:https://missionmatters.com/author/bill-bymel/

Every American who has a mortgage is required by their bank to have homeowners insurance, but getting it and keeping it is becoming a challenge. In this episode, hear the highlights of a Senate hearing examining the problems in the homeowners insurance market and why they might lead to much bigger problems next time disaster strikes. Please Support Congressional Dish – Quick Links Contribute monthly or a lump sum via Support Congressional Dish via (donations per episode) Send Zelle payments to: Donation@congressionaldish.com Send Venmo payments to: @Jennifer-Briney Send Cash App payments to: $CongressionalDish or Donation@congressionaldish.com Use your bank's online bill pay function to mail contributions to: Please make checks payable to Congressional Dish Thank you for supporting truly independent media! Background Sources Effects of Climate on Insurance Christopher Flavelle and Mira Rojanasakul. May 13, 2024. The New York Times. Chris Van Hollen et al. September 7, 2023. Chris Van Hollen, U.S. Senator for Maryland. Alice C. Hill. August 17, 2023. Council on Foreign Relations. Insurance Information Institute. Antonio Grimaldi et al. November 19, 2020. McKinsey & Company. Lobbying OpenSecrets. OpenSecrets. OpenSecrets. Heritage Foundation SourceWatch. Demotech William Rabb. April 15, 2024. Insurance Journal. Parinitha Sastry et al. December 2023. Fannie Mae Adam Hayes. May 17, 2023. Investopedia. Hurricanes National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Audio Sources Senate Committee on the Budget June 5, 2024 Witnesses: Glen Mulready, Insurance Commissioner, State of Oklahoma Rade Musulin, Principal, Finity Consulting Dr. Ishita Sen, Assistant Professor of Finance, Harvard Business School Deborah Wood, Florida Resident , Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation's Grover Hermann Center for the Federal Budget Clips 23:05 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): In 2022 and 2023, more than a dozen insurance companies left the Florida residential market, including national insurers like Farmers. Residents fled to Citizens Property Insurance, the state backed insurer of last resort, which ballooned from a 4% market share in 2019 to as much as 17% last year. If it has to pay out claims that exceed its reserves, citizens can levy a surcharge on Florida insurance policy holders across the state. Good luck with that. Particularly if the surcharge grows to hundreds or even thousands of dollars to depopulate its books. Citizens has let private insurers cherry pick out its least risk policies. Those private insurers may have problems of their own, as we will hear today. 25:10 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): The federal budget takes a hit because these insurers and their policies are accepted by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, who either own or guarantee a large part of our $12 trillion mortgage market. This all sounds eerily reminiscent of the run-up to the mortgage meltdown of 2008, including a role of potentially captive or not fully responsible rating agencies. 25:45 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): Florida is far from alone. A New York Times investigation found that the insurance industry lost money on homeowners coverage in 18 states last year, and the states may surprise you. The list includes Illinois, Michigan, Utah, Washington, and Iowa. Insurers in Iowa lost money each of the last four years. This is a signal that hurricanes and earthquakes, once the most prevalent perils, are being rivaled by hail, windstorms, and wildfires. 28:00 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): This isn't all that complicated. Climate risk makes things uninsurable. No insurance makes things unmortgageable. No mortgages crashes the property markets. Crashed property markets trash the economy. It all begins with climate risk, and a major party pretending that climate risk isn't real imperils our federal budget and millions of Americans all across the country. 33:45 Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA): Insurance premiums are far too high across the board and may increase after the recent storms, including those very storms in my state of Iowa. Climate change isn't the primary driver of insurance rate hikes and collapse of the insurance industry isn't imminent. Although I'll have to say, Iowa had six property and casualty companies pull out of insuring Iowans. Climate change doesn't explain why auto insurance premiums in 2024 have increased by a whopping 20% year over year. It also doesn't account for the consistent failure of liberal cities to fight crime, which has raised insurance risk and even caused insurers to deny coverage. Expensive liberal policies, not climate change, are much to blame for these market dynamics. 39:00 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): The first witness is Rade Musulin. Rade is an actuary with 45 years of experience in insurance, specializing in property pricing, natural perils, reinsurance, agriculture, catastrophe, risk modeling, public policy development, and climate risk. Specifically, he spent many years working in Florida, including as chair of the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Advisory Council during the time in which Citizens Property Insurance Corporation was established. 39:35 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): Our second witness is Dr. Ishida Sen. Dr. Sen is an Assistant Professor at Harvard Business School. Her recent research examines the pricing of property insurance and the interactions between insurance and mortgage markets. This includes the role that institutions and the regulatory landscape play and the broader consequences for real estate markets, climate adaptation, and our overall financial stability. 40:00 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): Our third witness is Deb Wood. Ms. Wood and her husband Dan McGrath are both retired Floridians. They moved to South Florida in 1979 and lived in Broward County, which includes Fort Lauderdale for 43 years until skyrocketing insurance premiums became too much. They now reside in Tallahassee, Florida. 40:35 Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA): Dr. EJ Antoni is a Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget. His research focuses on fiscal and monetary policy, and he previously was an economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation. Antoni earned his Master's degree and Doctor's degree in Economics from Northern Illinois University. 41:10 Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA): Commissioner Glen Mulready has served as Oklahoma's 13th Insurance Commissioner and was first elected to this position in 2019. Commissioner Mulready started his insurance career as a broker in 1984, and also served in the Oklahoma State House of Representatives. 42:15 Rade Musulin: Okay. My name is Ray Muslin. I'm an actuary who has extensive experience in natural hazard risks and funding arrangements for the damage and loss they cause. I've worked with many public sector entities on policy responses to the challenges of affordability, availability of insurance, and community resilience. This work included participating in Florida's response to Hurricane Andrew, which included the creation of the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund and Citizens Property Insurance Corporation. The Cat Fund and Citizens can access different forms of funding than traditional insurance companies. Instead of holding sufficient capital or reinsurance before an event to cover the cost of potential losses, both entities use public sources of capital to reduce upfront costs by partially funding losses post-event through bonding and assessments. All property casualty insurance policy holders, whether in Citizens or not, are subject to its assessments. While the Cat Fund can also assess almost all policies, including automobile, this approach exposes Floridians to debt and repayment if large losses occur, and it subsidizes high risk policies from the entire population. These pools, others like them in other states, and the NFIP have contributed to rapid development in high risk areas driving higher costs in the long run. In Florida, national insurers have reduced their exposure as a significant proportion of the insurance market has moved to Citizens or smaller insurers with limited capital that are heavily dependent on external reinsurance. To date, Florida's system has been successful in meeting its claims obligations, while improvements in building codes have reduced loss exposure. However, for a variety of reasons, including exposure to hurricanes, claims cost inflation, and litigation, Florida's insurance premiums are the highest in the nation, causing significant affordability stress for consumers. According to market research from Bankrate, the average premium for a $300,000 home in Florida is three times the national average, with some areas five times the national average. A major hurricane hitting a densely populated area like Miami could trigger large and long lasting post-event assessments or even exceed the system's funding capacity. Continued rapid exposure growth and more extreme hurricane losses amplified by climate change will cause increasing stress on the nation's insurance system, which may be felt through solvency issues, non-renewals, growth of government pools, and affordability pressure. 44:55 Rade Musulin: Evidence of increasing risk abounds, including Hurricane Otis in 2023, which rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a cat. five hurricane and devastated Acapulco in Mexico last summer. Water temperatures off Florida exceeded a hundred degrees Fahrenheit last week. As was alluded to earlier, NOAA forecast an extremely active hurricane season for '24. We've seen losses in the Mid-Atlantic from Sandy, record flooding from Harvey, and extreme devastation from Maria, among others. In coming decades, we must prepare for the possibility of more extreme hurricanes and coastal flooding from Texas to New England. 46:50 Dr. Ishita Sen: Good morning Senators. I am Ishita Sen, Assistant Professor at Harvard Business School and my research studies insurance markets. In recent work with co-authors at Columbia University and the Federal Reserve Board, I examine how climate risk creates fiscal and potentially financial instability because of miscalibrated insurer screening standards and repercussions to mortgage markets. 47:15 Dr. Ishita Sen: Insurance is critical to the housing market. Property insurers help households rebuild after disasters by preserving collateral values and reducing the likelihood that a borrower defaults. Insurance directly reduces the risks for mortgage lenders and the Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Mortgage Lenders therefore require property insurance and the GSEs only purchase mortgages backed by insurers who meet minimum financial strength ratings, which measure insurer solvency and ability to pay claims. The GSEs accept three main rating agencies AM Best, S & P and, more recently, Demotech. And to provide an example, Fannie Mae requires insurers to have at least a B rating from AM Best, or at least an A rating from Demo Tech to accept a mortgage. Now, despite having this policy in place, we find a dramatic rise in mortgages backed by fragile insurers and show that the GSEs and therefore the taxpayers ultimately shoulder a large part of the financial burden. Our research focuses on Florida because of availability of granular insurance market data, and we show that traditional insurers are exiting and the gap is rapidly being filled by insurers, rated by Demotech, which has about 60% market share in Florida today. These insurers are low quality across a range of different financial and operational metrics, and are at a very high risk of becoming insolvent. But despite their risk, these insurers secure high enough ratings to meet the minimum rating requirements set by the GSEs. Our analysis shows that many actually would not be eligible under the methodologies of other rating agencies, implying that in many cases these ratings are inflated and that the GSEs insurer requirements are miscalibrated. 49:20 Dr. Ishita Sen: We next look at how fragile insurers create mortgage market risks. So in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, homeowners with a policy from one of the insolvent Demotech insurers were significantly more likely to default on their mortgage relative to similar borrowers with policies from stable insurers. This is because insurers that are in financial trouble typically are slower to pay claims or may not pay the full amounts. But this implies severe economic hardships for many, many Floridians despite having expensive insurance coverage in place. However, the pain doesn't just stop there. The financial costs of fragile insurers go well beyond the borders of Florida because lenders often sell mortgages, for example, to the GSEs, and therefore, the risks created by fragile insurers spread from one state to the rest of the financial system through the actions of lenders and rating agencies. In fact, we show two reasons why the GSEs bear a large share of insurance fragility risk. First is that lenders strategically securitize mortgages, offloading loans backed by Demotech insurers to the GSEs in order to limit their counterparty risk exposures. And second, that lenders do not consider insurer risk during mortgage origination for loans that they can sell to the GSEs, even though they do so for loans that they end up retaining, indicating lax insurer screening standards for loans that can be offloaded to the GSEs. 50:55 Dr. Ishita Sen: Before I end, I want to leave you with two numbers. Over 90%. That's our estimate of Demotech's market share among loans that are sold to the GSEs. And 25 times more. That's Demotech's insolvency rate relative to AM Best, among the GSE eligible insurers. 57:15 Glen Mulready: As natural disasters continue to rise, understanding the dynamics of insurance pricing is crucial for both homeowners and policymakers. Homeowners insurance is a fundamental safeguard for what is for many Americans their single largest asset. This important coverage protects against financial loss due to damage or destruction of a home and its contents. However, recent years have seen a notable increase in insurance premiums. One significant driver of this rise is convective storms and other severe weather events. Convective storms, which include phenomena like thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hail, have caused substantial damage in various regions. The cost to repair homes and replace belongings after such events has skyrocketed leading insurance companies to adjust their premiums to cover that increased risk. Beyond convective storms, we've witnessed hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding. These events have not only caused damage, but have also increased the long-term risk profile of many areas. Insurance companies are tasked with managing that risk and have responded by raising premiums to ensure they can cover those potential claims. 58:30 Glen Mulready: Another major factor influencing homeowner's insurance premiums is inflation. Inflation affects the cost of building materials, labor, and other expenses related to home repair and reconstruction. As the cost of living increases, so does the cost of claims for insurers. When the price of lumber, steel, and other essential materials goes up, the expense of repairing or rebuilding homes also rises. Insurance companies must reflect these higher costs in their premiums to maintain financial stability and ensure they can meet those contractual obligations to policyholders. 59:35 Glen Mulready: I believe the most essential aspect of managing insurance premiums is fostering a robust, competitive free market. Competition among insurance companies encourages innovation and efficiency, leading to better pricing and services for consumers. When insurers can properly underwrite and price for risk, they create a more balanced and fair market. This involves using advanced data analytics and modeling techniques to accurately assess the risk levels of different properties. By doing so, insurance companies can offer premiums that reflect the true risk, avoiding excessive charges for low risk homeowners, and ensuring high risk properties are adequately covered. Regulation also plays a crucial role in maintaining a healthy insurance market. Policyholders must strike a balance between consumer protection and allowing insurers the freedom and flexibility to adjust their pricing based on the risk. Overly stringent regulations can stifle competition and lead to market exits, reducing choices for consumers. We've seen this play out most recently in another state where there were artificial caps put in place on premium increases that worked well for consumers in the short term, but then one by one, all of the major insurers began announcing they would cease to write any new homeowners insurance in that state. These are all private companies, and if there's not the freedom and flexibility to price their products properly, they may have to take drastic steps as we've seen. Conversely, a well-regulated market encourages transparency and fairness, ensuring that homeowners have access to the most affordable and adequate coverage options. 1:02:00 Dr. EJ Antoni: I'm a public finance economist and the Richard F. Aster fellow at the Heritage Foundation, where I research fiscal and monetary policy with a particular focus on the Federal Reserve. I am also a senior fellow at the Committee to Unleash Prosperity. 1:02:15 Dr. EJ Antoni: Since January 2021, prices have risen a cumulative 19.3% on average in the American economy. Construction prices for single family homes have risen much faster, up 30.5% during the same time. 1:03:20 Dr. EJ Antoni: Actuarial tables used in underwriting to estimate risk and future losses, as well as calculate premiums, rely heavily on those input costs. When prices increase radically, precisely as has happened over the last several years, old actuarial tables are of significantly less use when pricing premiums because they will grossly understate the future cost to the insurer. The sharp increase in total claim costs since 2019 has resulted in billions of dollars of losses for both insurers and reinsurers prompting large premium increases to stop those losses. This has put significant financial stress on consumers who are already struggling with a cost of living crisis and are now faced with much higher insurance premiums, especially for homeowners insurance. 1:05:10 Dr. EJ Antoni: The increase in claims related to weather events has undoubtedly increased, but it is not due to the climate changing. This is why the insurance and reinsurance markets do not rely heavily on climate modeling when pricing premiums. Furthermore, climate models are inherently subjective, not merely in how the models are constructed, but also by way of the inputs that the modeler uses. In other words, because insufficient data exists to create a predictive model, a human being must make wide ranging assumptions and add those to the model in place of real world data. Thus, those models have no predictive value for insurers. 1:07:40 Sen. Sheldon Whitehoue (D-RI): You say that this combination of demographics, development, and disasters poses a significant risk to our financial system. What do you mean by risk to our financial system Rade Musulin: Well, Senator, if you look at the combination, as has been pointed out, of high growth and wealth accumulation in coastal areas, and you look at just what we've observed in the climate, much less what's predicted in the future, there is significant exposure along the coastline from Maine to Texas. In fact, my family's from New Jersey and there is enormous development on the coast of New Jersey. And if we start to get major hurricanes coming through those areas, the building codes are probably not up to the same standards they are in Florida. And we could be seeing some significant losses, as I believe was pointed out in the recent Federal Reserve study. Sen. Sheldon Whitehoue (D-RI): And how does that create risk to the financial system? Rade Musulin: Well, because it's sort of a set of dominoes, you start with potentially claims issues with the insurers being stressed and not able to pay claims. You have post-event rate increases as we've seen in Florida, you could have situations where people cannot secure insurance because they can't afford it, then that affects their mortgage security and so on and so forth. So there are a number of ways that this could affect the financial system, sir. Sen. Sheldon Whitehoue (D-RI): Cascading beyond the immediate insurer and becoming a national problem. Rade Musulin: Well, I would just note Senator, that in Florida, the real problems started years after we got past Andrew. We got past paying the claims on Andrew, and then the big problems occurred later when we tried to renew the policies. 1:10:50 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): And you see in this, and I'm quoting you here, parallels in the 2008 financial crisis. What parallels do you see? Dr. Ishita Sen: So just like what happened during the financial crisis, there were rating agencies that gave out high ratings to pools of mortgages backed by subprime loans. Here we have a situation where rating agencies like Demotech are giving out inflated ratings to insurance companies. The end result is sort of the same. There is just too much risk and too many risky mortgages being originated, in this case backed by really low quality insurers that are then entering the financial system. And the consequences of that has to be born by, of course the homeowners, but also the mortgage owners, GSCs (Government Sponsored Enterprises), the lenders, and ultimately the federal and state governments. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): You say, this will be my last question. The fragility of property insurers is an important channel through which climate risk might threaten the stability of mortgage markets and possibly the financial system. What do you mean when you refer to a risk to the financial system? Dr. Ishita Sen: Well, as I was explaining the GSEs, if there are large losses that the GSEs face, then those losses have to be plugged by somebody. So the taxpayers, that's one channel through which you've got risk to the financial system and the GSE's serve as a backstop in the mortgage market. They may not have the ability or capacity to do so in such a scenario, which affects mortgage backed security prices, which are held by all sorts of financial institutions. So that starts affecting all of these institutions. On the other hand, if you've got a bunch of insurers failing, another channel is these insurers are one of the largest investors in many asset classes like corporate bonds, equities, and so on. And they may have to dump these securities at inopportune times, and that affects the prices of these securities as well. 1:12:45 Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-AI): Dr. Antoni, is there any evidence to support the notion that climate change is the greatest threat to the insurance market? Dr. EJ Antoni: No. Senator, there is not. And part of that has to do again, with the fact that when we look at the models that are used to predict climate change, we simply don't have enough empirical data with which we can input into those models. And so as a result of that, we have to have human assumptions on what we think is going to happen based essentially on a guess. And as a result of that, these models really are not of any predictive value, and that's why these models for the last 50 years have been predicting catastrophic outcomes, none of which have come true. 1:14:45 Glen Mulready: This focus on the rating agencies, I would agree with that if that were the be all end all. But the state insurance commissioners in each 50 states is tasked with the financial solvency of the insurance companies. We do not depend on rating agencies for that. We are doing financial exams on them. We are doing financial analysis every quarter on each one of them. So I would agree if that was the sort of be all end all, forgive that phrase, but it's not at all. And we don't depend very much at all on those rating agencies from our standpoint. 1:22:15 Dr. Ishita Sen: On the point about regulators looking at -- rating agencies is not something that we need to look at. I would just point out that in Florida, if you look at the number of exams that the Demotech rated insurers, that by the way have a 20% insolvency rate relative to 0% for traditional insurers, they get examined at the same rate as the traditional insurers like Farmers and AllState get examined, which is not something that you would expect if you're more risky. You would expect regulators to come look at them much, much more frequently. And the risk-based capital requirements that we have currently, which were designed in the 1980s, they're just not sensitive enough to new risks like wildfire and hurricanes and so on. And also not as well designed for under-diversified insurance companies because if so, all of these insurers were meeting the risk-based capital requirements, however, at the same time going insolvent at the rate of 20%. So those two things don't really go hand in hand. 1:23:25 Dr. Ishita Sen: Ultimately what the solution is is something that is obviously the main question that we are here to answer, but I would say that it is extremely hard to really figure out what the solution is, in part because we are not in a position right now to even answer some basic facts about how big the problem is, what exactly the numbers look like. For instance, we do not know basic facts about how much coverage people have in different places, how much they're paying. And when I say we don't know, we don't know this at a granular enough level because the data does not exist. And the first step towards designing any policy would be for us to know exactly how bad the problem is. And then we come up with a solution for that and start to evaluate these different policy responses. Right now we are trying to make policy blindfolded. 1:23:50 Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI): So we've had testimony before this committee that we've already spent $5-6 trillion. That's 5,000 to 6,000 billion dollars trying to mitigate climate change. We haven't made a dent in it. Their estimates, it's going to cost tens of trillions of dollars every year to reach net zero. So again, this is not the solution for a real problem, which is the broken insurance market. I have enough Wisconsin residents who live on the Gulf Coast in Florida to know after Hurricane Ian, you got some real problems in Florida. But fixing climate change isn't the solution. 1:33:15 Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR): In looking at the materials I saw that Citizens Property Insurance Company, I gather that's Louisiana and Florida, that have a completely state backed program. Well, alright, so if the state becomes the insurer of last resort and they now suffer the same losses that a regular private insurance company is suffering, now the folks in the state are carrying massive debt. So that doesn't seem like a great solution. Dr. Ishita Sen: That's definitely a problem, right? The problem is of course, that whether the state then has the fiscal capacity to actually withstand a big loss, like a big hurricane season, which is a concern that was raised about Citizens. And in such a scenario then in a world where they do not have enough tax revenue, then they would have to go into financial markets, try to borrow money, which could be very costly and so on. So fiscally it's going to be very challenging for many cities and many municipalities and counties and so on. 1:36:40 Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): I wish there were something we could do that would reduce the climate change we're seeing and the warming of the planet. But I've seen absolutely nothing proposed by anyone that reduces CO2 emissions, methane gases and the heating of the planet. Climate change is going to happen because of the development in China and Indonesia and Brazil, and the only thing that actually makes any measurable impact at all is putting a price on carbon, and no one seems to be willing to consider doing that. Everything else that's being talked about on the climate — Democratic Senator: I got two bills. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): I know you and I are, but you guys had reconciliation. You could have done it all by yourselves and you didn't. So the idea that somehow we're going to fix climate and solve the insurance problem is pie in the sky. That's avoiding the reality that we can't fix climate because that's a global issue, not an American issue. Anyway, let me turn back to insurance. 1:38:30 Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): So the question is, what actions can we take? Fiscal reform? Yes, to try and deal with inflation. Except I want to note something, Mr. Antoni, because you're esteemed at the Heritage Foundation. 72% of federal spending is not part of the budget we vote on. So we talk about Biden wants to spend all this.... 72% we don't vote on; we only vote on 28%. Half of that is the military. We Republicans want more military spending, not less. So that means the other 14%, which the Democrats want to expand, there's no way we can reduce the 14% enough to have any impact on the massive deficits we're seeing. So there's going to have to be a broader analysis of what we have to do to reign in our fiscal challenges. I just want to underscore that. I would say a second thing we can do, besides fiscal reform and dealing with inflation, is stopping subsidizing high risk areas. Basically subsidizing people to build expensive places along the coast and in places that are at risk of wildfire. And we subsidize that and that creates huge financial risk to the system. And finally, mitigation of one kind or another. That's the other thing we can do is all sorts of mitigation: forestry management, having people move in places that are not high risk. But if you want to live in a big house on the coast, you're gonna have to spend a lot of money to insure it or take huge risk. That's just the reality. So those are the three I come up with. Stop the subsidy, mitigation, and fiscal reform. What else am I missing, Mr. Musulin? And I'm just going to go down the line for those that are sort of in this area to give me your perspectives. Rade Musulin: Well, thank you, Senator. And I'd agree with all those things. And I'd also add that we need to start thinking about future-proofing our building codes and land use policies. The sea levels are rising. If you're going to build a house that's supposed to last 75 years, you ought to be thinking about the climate in 75 years when you give somebody a permit to build there. So I'd say that's important. I'd also say that large disasters also drive inflation because it puts more pressure and demand on labor and materials. More disasters means supplies that could have been used to build new homes for Americans or diverted to rebuild homes in the past. So certainly doing things to reduce the vulnerability of properties and improve their resilience is important. And I do think, sir, that there are things we can do about climate change with respect over periods of decades that can make a difference in the long run. Thank you. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): Thank you. Yes. Dr. Ishita Sen: So before that, the one point about inflation that we are missing, which is without doubt it is a contributing factor, but the US has had inflation in the past without such an acute crisis in insurance markets. So whether that is the biggest cause or not is up for debate. I don't think we have reached a conclusion on inflation being the biggest contributor of rising insurance cost. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): It's just a big one. You'd agree It's a big one? Dr. Ishita Sen: I agree. It's a big one, but I wouldn't say it's the biggest one in terms of policy solutions. I completely agree with you on, we need to stop subsidizing building in high risk areas. That's definitely one of the things we need to do that. Mitigation, another point that you bring up. And on that, I would say not only do we need to harden our homes, but we also need to harden our financial institutions, our banks, and our insurance companies in order to make them withstand really large climate shocks that are for sure coming their way. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): Thank You, Ms. Wood. I'm going to let you pass on this just because that's not your area of expertise. Your experience was something which focused our thinking today. Mr. Mulready. Glen Mulready: Thank you, Senator. I would say amen to your comments, but I'll give you three quick things. Number one, FEMA has a survey out that states that every $1 spent in mitigation saves $6 in lost claims. It pays off. Number two, unfortunately, a lot of communities have to have a disaster happen. In Moore, Oklahoma, back a dozen years ago, an EF5 (tornado) hit, it was just totally devastating. After that, the city of Moore changed their zoning, they changed their building zoning codes, and then third, the city of Tulsa, back in the eighties, had horrible flooding happened. So they invested over decades in infrastructure to prevent flooding. Now we're one of only two communities in the country that are Class one NFIP rated. 1:45:40 Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD): One way to address this, and I think it was discussed in a different matter, is the need to get the data and to get consensus on where the risks lie, which is why last year Senator Whitehouse, Senator Warren and I sent a letter to the Treasury Department, to the Federal Insurance Office (FIO), urging them to collect information from different states. I'm a supporter of a state-based insurance system for property and casualty insurance, but I do think it would benefit all of us to have a sort of national yardstick against which we can measure what's happening. So Dr. Sen, could you talk a little bit about the benefit of having a common source of insurance data through the FIO and how that could benefit state regulators and benefit all of us? Dr. Ishita Sen: Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for bringing that up. That's just the first order importance, I think, because we don't even know the basic facts about this problem at a granular enough level. The risks here are local, and so we need to know what's going zip code-by-zip code, census tract-by-census tract, and for regulators to be able to figure out exactly how much risk is sitting with each of these insurance companies they need to know how much policies they're writing, what's the type of coverage they're selling in, what are the cancellations looking like in different zip codes. Only then can they figure out exactly how exposed these different insurers are, and then they can start designing policy about whether the risk-based capital ratios look alright or not, or should we put a surcharge on wildfires or hurricanes and so on? And we do need a comprehensive picture. We just can't have a particular state regulator look at the risks in that state, because of course, the insurer is selling insurance all over the country and we need to get a comprehensive picture of all of that. 1:47:40 Sen. Chris Van Hollen: I appreciate that. I gather that the Treasury Department is getting some resistance from some state insurance regulators. I hope we can overcome that because I'm not sure why anyone would want to deny the American people the benefit of the facts here. 1:48:45 Rade Musulin: I will just note that sometimes climate change itself can contribute to the inflation we've been talking about. For example, there were beetle infestations and droughts and fires in Canada, which decimated some of the lumber crop and led to a fivefold increase in the cost of lumber a few years ago. So some of this claims inflation is actually related to climate change, and I think we need to address that. 1:49:35 Glen Mulready: If you didn't know, the NAIC, National Association of Insurance Commission is in the midst of a data collection right now that will collect that data for at least 80% of the homeowner's market. And we have an agreement with FIO (Federal Insurance Office) to be sharing that data with them. They originally came to us, I got a letter from FIO and they were requesting data that we did not actually collect at the zip code level, and they had a very stringent timeline for that. So my response, it wasn't, no, it was just, look, we can't meet that timeline. We don't collect that today. We can in the future. But from that is where this has grown the data called by the NEIC. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD): So I appreciate, I saw that there had been now this effort on behalf of the....So has this now been worked out? Are there any states that are objecting, to your knowledge at this point in time, in terms of sharing data? Glen Mulready: I don't know about specific states. We will be collecting data that will represent at least 80% of the market share. Music by Editing Production Assistance

There are a lot of changes coming up that will be effecting appraisers with the new UAD from the GSEs. How can we prepare for these changes? Why is it so important to start practicing NOW? Today, host Hal Humphreys speaks with Joel Baker, Senior Professional of Product Solutions at A la mode. Joel is one of the biggest voices in the industry through his podcasts and instructing with A la mode.We're partnering with CoreLogic / a la mode to offer LIVE continuing education! Joel will be teaching on the very topic we've discussed in this podcast to help appraisers get prepared.Join us in Oklahoma City in August for 14 hours of live, in-person CE (or join virtually via Zoom, if you can't make it out to OK). We've got two courses on the docket:Friday, August 2: Appraiser's Guide to Appraisal Inspections with Bryan ReynoldsSaturday, August 3: Scan to Sketch - Practical Application of Mobile Appraising with Joel BakerRegister ASAP! These classes are likely to sell out fast: https://appraiserelearning.com/product/ael-and-corelogic-education-series-bundle-in-person-class-oklahoma-city-august-2nd-and-3rd-2024/?goal=0_ea97ed434d-325688b91a-15996429&mc_cid=325688b91a&mc_eid=65b5f3af00

On today's episode, managing editor James Kleimann talks with editor Neil Pierson about the mortgage rate lockdown, where rates look to be headed, and recent news from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on the real estate commission lawsuits. Related to this episode: As a ‘higher-for-longer' rate scenario unfolds, how is the mortgage industry adapting? GSEs will not count buyer agent commissions as IPCs The Gathering HousingWire's YouTube Channel Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Get our free real estate course and newsletter: GRE Letter Time, health, and money are three key resources in your life. Learn about their trade-offs. “It's not at what age I want to retire, it's at what income.” -George Foreman I discuss at least three definitions of retirement: 1-The time of life when one permanently chooses to leave the workforce. 2-To remove from service. 3-When you become job-optional. 4-When you stop doing mandatory income-producing activities. Social security, pensions, 401(k)s, and residual income from real estate and stocks are all discussed. Compound interest is faulty. Compound leverage can help you retire young. “After the first $2M-$3M, a paid off home, and a good car, there is no difference in the quality of life between you and Jeff Bezos.” We discuss.  I briefly cover the antitrust case against the NAR, making the 5-6% commission paid by the seller largely a thing of the past. Rents are up 2% annually, the biggest gain in thirteen months, per Redfin. Learn 15 reasons why single-family rentals beat apartments.  I discuss two specific addresses—one in Memphis and one in Little Rock. Our Investment Coaches help you free with these and other income properties and your strategy at GREmarketplace.com.   Resources mentioned: Show Page: GetRichEducation.com/494 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Do you want to retire? What is the definition of retirement today, anyway? In fact, with just 2 or $3 million, would you be as happy as the world's richest man, Jeff Bezos? I'll break that down. Then I discuss key trends in the rental housing market today on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text gray to 66866. Text gray 266866.   Corey Coates (00:01:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:49) - We're going to go from Andover, England, to Andover, Massachusetts, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich education. Around here, we say that financially free beats debt free. And for many, financially free means retirement. Now, you might be far from retirement, but those with the most foresight are those that begin with the end in mind. And it can be rather dreamy for some to think about retirement and then others don't want to retire. I'm asking you, do you want to retire? Do you ever want to retire? In fact, we posed that very question to our general education audience. I've got those results that I'll share with you here later, and it is really interesting.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:41) - But let me give you some perspective. First, I think that some young people fall into the trap of daydreaming about retirement. Oh, you might want to retire someday, but look, you can't dream about it too much. You've got to live in the moment. Because if you retire a traditional retirement age, those people tend to look back on their younger years and regret the things that they didn't try when they were younger. Don't quit your day dream, but don't dream about older age too much when you're younger. With the wealth building concepts that we discuss here on the show every week, you don't have to be that old when you retire to me. What sets the stage for you being able to retire is when you reach the point of being job optional. At what point are you job optional? That is a key turning point and for you, as soon as you're job optional. You might want to retire at that point, but you don't want to retire so soon that things will be iffy on whether or not you run out of money before you run out of life.   Keith Weinhold (00:03:49) - The best way to avoid that situation is to build your residual outside of work income alongside you during your working years, and then you won't have to merely guess on if a certain lump sum amount is going to be accumulated and sufficient. Now, one definition that I like for retirement is that you stop doing income producing activities that you don't want to do. All right. That's one definition. What you've done there is that you stopped sacrificing today for some imaginary tomorrow. If you stop doing those mandatory income producing activities. Look, you've got three key resources in your life time, health, and money. When you're younger, you'll trade away your time and even your health for money. That's because you feel like you have an abundance of time and health and not much money yet. But as you progress through life continuing to make this trade, your time and your health become more scarce, resources no longer abundant ones, there will come a point in your life where working will cost you more than retiring. You don't want to get to that point.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:09) - Now. You probably see no sheets of paper with the squares that you can hang up. There's 52 boxes in a year and is divided into 90 sections, one for each year of your life. And it shows you graphically in your face how many weeks and years you really have left. And by the way, I cannot get myself to hang up one of those sheets. That is just too much of an in my face reminder of my own mortality. Okay, I'm not doing that, but what do you like to do? Do you like canoeing or reading books or running in five K races? Well, if you read five books a year and you're going to live 50 more years, let's just 250 books for the rest of your life. Now, that sounds like quite a few, but when you're done, you're done. Do you have some best friends that you see, say, once a year? Do you live a long ways from your parents and you only see them once or twice annually, or at this rate, then you might only see your friends, say 31 more times.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:17) - And if your parents are older, what if you only see them 18 more times? That might sound like quite a few, but when that's done, that is done. Now this can get a little depressing. But what I'm helping you do here is identify what's important to you in your life. A lot of people don't have any real hobbies outside of their jobs. People feel sad and unfulfilled and can never see themselves retiring when this is the case. Now, you might enjoy drinking with your friends. All right. Sure, but that's not a real hobby. Hopefully you have the ambition to know that there are a lot of things that you really want to do, and you need to find the time in order to do those things. Well, here's the good news you are the one that's in control of how much of your time on earth you spend doing those activities are spending time with those people. Now, I was chatting with one woman about retirement. Gosh, this was interesting. And she told me that she doesn't want to retire.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:23) - Okay, well, she justified her stance by saying, who wants to stay at home? And I'm thinking, who wants to stay at home? I found that a really curious answer. Why does retirement mean staying at home? Like if you don't go to work, you'd stay at home. So maybe this person didn't have any hobbies. I mean, I would think that retirement would include the time and ability to travel. Well. So retiring and staying at home or not at all identical to me. A few years ago we had financial expert Kim Butler here on the show. You might remember that really intelligent woman. She was a retirement detractor, not a fan of retirement. The definition of retirement to Kim, if you remember, is to remove from service. That was her definition, meaning that she'll no longer serve others. I'm not saying that's right or wrong. That's her perspective. Well, I think that you can still serve others in retirement. Take a leadership position at your church, coach kids baseball, volunteer at a homeless shelter.   Keith Weinhold (00:08:28) - And even if retirement does mean to remove from service, or you probably served others at a full time job for decades, probably even for most of your life. So it's okay to have others in turn serve you in retirement. Well, today I'm here asking you, do you want to retire and what is retirement and not giving you some food for thought, let me discuss some more formal definitions of retirement first before I continue here. Now if you go and Google what is retirement, the word age appears after that as a fourth word, suggesting that you might select what is retirement age. Well, the former boxer George Foreman, he said it well. He said it's not at what age I want to retire. It said what income. Yeah. The first retirement definition that you find though, is the time of life when one permanently chooses to leave the workforce. All right. Well, that's actually a good short definition. And it'll show you that the traditional retirement age is 65 in the US and a lot of other developed countries too.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:39) - But in the US today, full retirement age when you can collect full Social Security benefits is age 67. If you were born in 1960 or later, and the earliest that you can collect benefits is 62. But do you know what the average monthly Social Security check amount is today? It is $1,767. Now, that amount can vary a lot depending on the recipient type, but it gives you some idea that that is only a supplement to your other income that you've got to figure out. And a sad and paltry $1,767. I mean that right there. That may very well be a motivator to make you want to invest well elsewhere. The old standard is that retirees need 80% of the income that they had when they were working, but were more abundantly minded. Here at GRI, I'd like to think that your income could go up in retirement as you keep adding cash flowing assets. But in a recent survey of consumer finance, the mean retirement amount saved of all working age families, the complete family here, not just the individual, is just 269 K.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:58) - That's not per year as retirement income. That's just the lump sum to live off of. Now some workers, especially government employees, they have a pension. That's where you don't have to just draw from a lump sum at the end of your life, like you would at the end of your life, like you would with a 401 K. So a pension that's a predetermined livable amount that you're paid each year in retirement, it's often based on the percent that you earn during your working years, say 75%. That's why most people like a pension within a 401 K, because pensions are about the perpetual income, not the lump sum, where you just hope that it lasts. But pensions are expensive. So the private sector really started phasing them out beginning in the ninth. 80s. Really in the US retirement. What that used to mean is turning 65 and drawing a pension and Social Security. I mean, that's what you'll hear your grandparents talk about. Now for us in younger generations, remember, your 401 K withdrawals must begin between age 59.5 and 70, and you must begin paying tax on it at that time.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:13) - Now, there's been a flurry of research about advances in longevity. Some of the more optimistic ones even say that if you're currently under age 55 and you get to the age of 65 in good health, you're likely to live to be 125 plus, if that comes true or even partially true, that tilts toward not accumulating a lump sum in retirement, but having an income stream from something like income producing real estate or stock dividends. You really need to focus on that income stream. If you're going to live a few decades longer than the current life expectancy. Look, when you make the production of ongoing income part of your ongoing investment strategy, you don't need what many retirees think of as the 4% rule. You probably heard of it what the 4% rule is. That's a popular retirement withdrawal strategy that says that you can safely withdraw the amount equal to 4% of your savings during the year that you retire, and then you're supposed to adjust for inflation each subsequent year for, say, 20 or 30 years. Well, that imposes serious limits.   Keith Weinhold (00:13:28) - I mean, that is synonymous with the life deferral plan, like a 401 K, where you voluntarily reduce your income in your working years to participate in an employee sponsored plan that isn't even designed to produce income until you're older, trading away pieces of your 30 year old self to get pieces of your 80 year old self back, you're drawing down on your big pot that you have saved for retirement. And instead, if you've been adding income producing investments for a decade or more, what you won't have to draw down at the limiting 4%, you've got to, of course, figure out inflation. Those retirees that are tapping into one lump sum amount, like from an employer sponsored plan a 401 K or a 403 B, they just try to guess at the future inflation rate. That's all any of us can do. And a lot of times they safely assume 4%. Around here we talk about how the real world inflation long term is almost certainly higher than that. So if you've got income from real estate and say you even do want to have your real estate paid off in retirement, you may or may not want to pay it off since you're ten and services your debt.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:41) - Well, you know, when it comes to inflation, rents tend to stay indexed to inflation. So your residual cash flow is pretty well protected from erosion to inflation. I've got some good news. You might be able to retire substantially sooner than you think. That's because if you're age 20 or 30 or 40 or 50, whatever, most planners, they project your wealth from a lump sum that grows with compound interest or compound interest is faulty, as we know it's degraded down after you account for inflation, emotion, taxes, fees, and volatility. Luckily for you, you have more than weak, impotent, and deluded compound interest because in addition to your residual income, you're going to have bigger lump sums than others because you had compounding leverage, not compounding interest. Even if you had zero real estate cash flow in retirement and you've got leverage, you made lots of 20% down payments on properties that appreciated, say, 5% a year. That means you were leveraged 5 to 1 and you got a 25% return in that first year of each rental property that you owned and is any Gary devotee knows that 25% is one of just five ways you're paid.   Keith Weinhold (00:16:07) - This is why you can actually retire sooner than you're thinking. With help from leverage. What you've done is collapse time frames. Understand that when you're in your retirement years, most people they have a U shaped spending pattern. Yes, u shaped spending in retirement because you tend to spend a lot of money in your early retirement years. You're traveling, you're living it up, and then you get a decade or two older. You slow down, you stay at home and spend less the trough of the U. And then your expenses go up before end of life. Care. Yes, you shaped spending patterns in retirement are common. And I know I talked about slowing down there at the trough of the year, but of course you won't be slowing down. It's just that others have tended to. Now, a really interesting topic that has circulated among many lately, and I believe that this was first proposed and debated on Reddit or X, and that is this after the first 2 million or $3 million a paid off home in a good car, there is no difference in the quality of life between you and Jeff Bezos, the richest man in the world.   Keith Weinhold (00:17:29) - That's the topic. What do you think about that? 2 or $3 million is attainable. You might already be there or beyond it. And of course, this says nothing about an income stream. So let's presume that there isn't one. All right. Well, in response to this topic, Spencer here from Orlando says I strongly disagree. Private jets complete immunity to health care costs and the ability to donate sums that change lives are all heavy hitting things that you can't do with $3 million. Tug from New York says, I agree 100%. Things like vacationing on a private island or a superyacht they may be cool to experience, but these are not necessarily things I'm thinking of when I think of happiness and anonymous respondents says Bezos's 420,000 acres probably have several views. That would be my view. Glenn, from Florida, says I have a paid off 975 square foot home, a 2018 Honda Cr-V, and not much spare cash. But I do have a wife going on 49 years who loves me, so I am richer than most millionaires like Quay.   Keith Weinhold (00:18:43) - I don't know where he's from, Mike says. I disagree with the 2 million to $3 million thing. I have some wealthy friends and they say that the sweet spot is 10 million to 100 million. In this zone, you can live very comfortably, but you're also able to blend in easily enough with most of the middle class. When you eclipse $100 million, typically you're involved with something public invisible, and then security and other considerations become much more of a problem. All right, that was his take, Mike keys. And then we had a number of others point out that $2 million is not enough to fly private, which makes a big difference to your quality of life. And yes, they do have a point there. I have flown private once and there is a substantial difference. Finally, Tanner's got a good point here. He says, I agree there is no significant difference in quality of life. Having safety, security, education, some autonomy and growth potential is key. The difference between a regular vacation and a $50,000 vacation is negligible, and it is the same with cars, food, watches and anything materialistic.   Keith Weinhold (00:19:54) - That's what Tanner says. All right, well, to summarize that for you here, and this is also parallel with my belief is that I disagree with this Bezos thing, with the 2 to $3 million net worth in your necessities taken care of. There is a difference between that life and Jeff Bezos life. But remember, the claim is that there was no difference. However, that difference is not that vast. That's my opinion. And yes, one can say that no amount of money can bring you happiness, but with money, you can buy time that you can fill with happiness and those that you love. Now that you have some perspective in different viewpoints, maybe you're better able to answer that question that I asked you at the beginning. Do you want to retire? And here it is, our poll that was run on our Instagram Stories. It asked, do you want to retire and blow those words? It showed a happy couple on vacation holding hands and the result was yes, 58% of you want to retire and the nos were 42%.   Keith Weinhold (00:21:06) - If you've given extraordinary service to humanity, I say sure. Thank you for your great service to humanity. Congratulations. Go ahead and retire more straight ahead. As I discussed the most proven retire early vehicle of all time and key shifts in the real estate market, and how you can accidentally build wealth with it. Positive leverage. This is episode 494. You're just six weeks away from an unforgettable episode 500 I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time.   Keith Weinhold (00:22:19) - So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charley Ridge. Personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. What's up everyone? This is HGTV. Tarek Moussa, listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't.   Speaker 3 (00:23:31) - Quit your day dream.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:43) - Welcome back. To Get Rid of Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. You might want to know what I think about the ruling that was made ten days ago.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:50) - With respect to the antitrust case against the Nar. I was asked to speak on television about it. I put more about that in last week's newsletter, so I don't have too much more to tell you here. The high point is that the standard 5 to 6% commissions are gone. Sellers used to pay that completely. That commission amount was split between their seller raisin in the buyer's agent. What really happened here is that the lawsuits argue that the Nar and brokerages kept buyers and sellers out of the commission negotiation process, and that led to higher overall costs. And really, the result of this is that it should make some agents lower their fees in order to stay competitive. We should end up seeing lower sales costs when one sells a property. Some estimates are that agent commissions will be down about 30%. Perhaps half of America's 2 million agents will lead the industry. We'll see about that. But see, sellers are still going to want to get the most money for their property that they can, and they're still going to be using comparable sales.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:54) - So that's why it remains to be seen if it really affects listing prices at all. Overall, the Nar continues its waning influence in the real estate industry. Before we discuss the rental property market, you know, I find this kind of upsetting. I mean, do we need to politicize everything? Redfin recently reported that the majority of U.S. homeowners and renters say that housing affordability affects their pick for president. I mean, this is getting ridiculous. That's according to a Redfin commissioned survey conducted by Qualtrics, 3000 US homeowners and renters were surveyed. Those surveyed were worried about the lack of housing inventory and affordability. I mean, how do you really know which presidential administration to blame that on for who to give credit to? I mean, Biden did recently roll out a plan to help with housing affordability. And then, on the other hand, Trump is famously known as a real estate investor, after all. Let's talk about the single family rental market. Do you know what the typical rent range is for a single family rental in America today? Well, the John Byrnes Single Family Rental Survey shows us that most respondents report monthly rents in the $1750 to $2250 range.   Keith Weinhold (00:26:18) - There are about eight ranges here, and 54% of single family reds are in that range. So really close to $2,000. And yeah, I myself have many or even most of my single family rentals in that same range near $2,000. Rents are lowest in the Midwest and Southeast, where a lot of operators report average rents 17 to $1800, and then it almost $2,700. California rent outpaces much of the nation. And you know what? If you just heard that right there, you'd actually think that California is the place to invest and that the Midwest and Southeast or not. But it's just the opposite of that, because it's not about the absolute rent amount. It's about that ratio of rent to purchase price. And that's what makes the Midwest and Southeast the best places. And a third region that's an investment sweet spot is what I like to call the inland Northeast Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, even Baltimore. Although Baltimore is getting a little coastal, it's the Inland Northeast that has the numbers that work, not the coastal northeast like New York City in Boston and those really high priced markets where rents don't keep up proportionally.   Keith Weinhold (00:27:39) - And of course, there are pockets of opportunity elsewhere, like Texas and some other markets. And note that no part of Pennsylvania is on the East Coast at all, not even Philadelphia. None of it touches the coast. I am indeed a native Pennsylvanian. You get these little geography lessons from me interspersed here at gray., Redfin tells us that rents in the US now this is both apartments in single family. Now we're just talking about single family. Earlier rents are up 2% annually. That's actually the biggest gain in 13 months. Yes, a pretty modest increase there as rent amounts have just been really pretty steady for the last year. And so much new apartment construction took place last year that there is quite a bit of apartment supply to soak up in certain metros, and you might even see concessions. On some of these. I mean, if a new apartment complex is just finished, you know what's sitting there? 250 vacant units all at once. So you're seeing some apartment owners try to entice renters with one month's free rent for a 12 month lease, for example.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:51) - The single family rental market is in better shape from a demand supply perspective than apartments are. See, what's happened, though, is that with the Airbnb market becoming both oversaturated in some markets and then cities cracking down on short term rentals in other markets, it's there's some STR owners have turned their single family homes from Airbnbs over to long term rentals, and that brought a little more supply out of the long term rental market. More places have bans on short term rentals, and gosh, I just had an awful short term rental experience last month when I stayed at one. I usually go for hotels and that's what I'll be doing for a while again,? Now, Adam data, they have some great stats for us here. They reported that rental margins are increasing in about two thirds of the nation. That's some good news. But the increase is still pretty small. And they show us the top five counties for single family rental yield. And they used three bedrooms in their single family rental yield comps. And they did it in larger markets of a million plus.   Keith Weinhold (00:30:03) - All right. So these are counties of a large population where you're getting the best cash flow today basically on single families. Fifth, and I'm surprised that this is Riverside County California. That's the Inland Empire. You sure want to check landlord tenant law in a highly regulated place like California. Fourth is Cook County, Illinois. That's Chicago. Third is Coahoma County, Ohio. That's Cleveland. The second best single family rental yield is Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. That's Pittsburgh. And first number one for rent yield on single families is Wayne County, Michigan. That's Detroit. We've discussed Detroit on the show before. It has a stigma. It seems like the only way to make the stigma disappear is to visit. And you're going to find Investor Advantage properties in a lot of those counties through our gray investment coaches here at Gray marketplace.com about single family rental homes. Now, some asset types like apartment buildings or perhaps self-storage units, they have economies of scale and some other advantages over single family rentals. But single families are a favorite.   Keith Weinhold (00:31:18) - They might have the best risk adjusted return anywhere today, even after 2008 Great Recession, those that had bought for cash flow persevered and even thrived. In fact, single family rentals have at least 15 distinct advantages over a larger apartment building, some that you probably never thought about before. And as I discussed this, don't think that I dislike apartment buildings. Okay, it's likely not the most advantageous time in the market cycle for apartments. It's tenant quality. Single family rentals attract a better quality of tenant. They take better care of the premises. Then there's the neighborhood. Single families tend to be in a better neighborhood. Then there's appreciation. Properties tend to appreciate better over time. Fourthly, there's the school district. They're more likely to be in a better school district. Then there's the retention. Tenants stay longer, creating less vacancy expense. And the aforementioned neighborhood and school districts are why they stay. And you've got common areas. A lot of people don't think about this single families. They don't have these common areas to clean and maintain.   Keith Weinhold (00:32:29) - Apartments have hallways, stairs, larger rooms, and common outdoor grounds that a custodian needs to service. And this is another overlooked profit drag that apartment investors miss in their PNL in their profit and loss projections. And I miss this expense on my first ever apartment. By then, there's utilities in single family rentals. Tenants often pay all the utilities. They even care for the lawn. The larger the apartment building is, the more likely you'll, as the owner, be the one paying utility costs like heat, electricity, water, wastewater, and landscaping. Then there's divisibility. What if you've got property that's not performing the way you hoped it would? Well, if you had ten single family rentals, you can sell the 1 or 2 that are not performing. And with a ten unit apartment building, you must either keep or sell all of the units. It's not divisible. Fire and pestilence. You know, fire and pests. They are more easily controlled in single family rentals where there aren't common walls, even if you're at.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:34) - Ensured these diffuse conditions. They often affect multiple units and families in larger complexes. Financing is a big deal. Income. Single family rentals. They have both lower mortgage interest rates and lower down payment requirements than apartments. You can secure ten single family rental loans if you're single, 20 if you're married at the best rates and terms through the GSEs, the government sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with 20% down payments and apartments, rarely, if ever, have 30 year fixed rate terms like 1 to 4 unit properties do, and you can get more than 10 or 20 of them. But the financing terms are not going to be as good. And what about vacancy rate? That's true that if you're a single family's vacant, your vacancy rate is 100%. If your fourplex has one vacancy, then your vacancy rate is only 25%. But the same is true if you own four Single-Family rentals in one is vacant. Then there's management. If you hire professional management, your manager would likely rather deal with higher quality single family residence.   Keith Weinhold (00:34:44) - If you're self-managing, this is a demographic that you would probably rather handle yourself to supply and demand. There aren't enough low cost single family rentals that make the best income producing properties. Demand exceeds supply, and this is going to continue in both the short and the medium term. Then there's market risk. This is another overlooked criterion. Yes, criterion. Does anyone even know that the singular of criteria is criterion?, you've got to keep your properties filled with rent paying tennis. They have jobs. So if you think you're going to be able to buy ten rental units in the near future with your tenured apartment building, that's only going to be in one location, leaving you exposed to just one geographies economic fortunes instead with, say, ten single family rentals, you could have four in little Rock, three in Dallas and three in Birmingham. And then your exit strategy, that's an important consideration, especially for newer investors years down the road when it's time for you to sell your income property, hopefully, after years of handsome profits, there's a greater buyer pool for your single family then there's going to be for your apartment building.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:58) - More buyers can afford the lower price, and then, unlike apartments, you even have access to a pool of buyers that might want to occupy your property themselves. To live there as an owner occupant, there might even be your current tenant that buys it from you. So those are some of the attributes of single family rental homes. Again, I really like apartment buildings too. I could go on with more advantages for apartment buildings. If you've been meaning to grow your portfolio, you know when you have this information, don't let it be like two well-meaning friends that meet at the gym. And then they say, hey, we should grab lunch sometime. You know what? That is a nonstarter. You got to put something on the calendar to make something happen. You can't make any money from the property that you don't own. You can just copy me and buy the same types of properties in the same places where I buy. Get pre-qualified for a mortgage loan and we'll help you find property. We talked about retirement earlier.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:58) - I mean, the earlier you get into real estate, the better off you're going to be. From that perspective, the best time is today as you get leverage working for you and inflation profiting working for you. What's going on today is with this lower affordability, first time homebuyers, they have often now got to spend years saving for a down payment while they rent. And in the meantime, you can solve their housing problem. They become your renter in these freshly renovated homes or new build homes. And I'll even give you two addresses before we leave. Today. Though in today's tightly supplied market, you know, sound income properties can seem more rare than a pop up. And that's actually useful. Supply is short overall, but because of our long standing relationships, we have a good selection right now. This first of two properties is on Crane Road in Memphis, Tennessee. It's a single family rental. The purchase price is $169,500. The rent's 1253 bed, two bath, 1265ft². The year built is 1964.   Keith Weinhold (00:38:12) - Ask your investment coach about the fresh renovations there. And the other one is in little Rock, Arkansas. And I think I told you that when I made my little Rock real estate visit, I had some extra time and I visited the Bill Clinton Presidential Library, which though, although it's called a library, presidential library, is there really like museums a tribute. To the past president. What I don't think that I did share is that in the entire Bill Clinton presidential library, I could not find one mention of Monica Lewinsky. Not one shred of evidence that that ever took place. Nothing.   Speaker 4 (00:38:50) - Let me tell you something. There's going to be a whole bunch of things we don't tell Mrs. Clinton.   Keith Weinhold (00:38:58) - Nothing whitewashed. All the evidence at all.   Speaker 5 (00:39:01) - Nothing there.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:03) - This property is on Duncan Drive in Little Rock, Arkansas. The single family rental has a purchase price of 117 nine. Rent is 975. Three bed, two bath, 888ft². In the year it was built was 1967. So these are some of the lower cost properties that you find at Gray Marketplace.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:25) - If you prefer brand new builds, brand new construction, we can help you with those two. You typically can't find these deals on public facing platforms that are broad like the MLS or Zillow, and it's completely free. Contact your gray investment coach and learn about these properties. Rehab details and others like them. Learn about their occupancy status and more. And if you don't have a coach, pick one. They'll help you out at Gray marketplace.com. Until next week. I'm Keith, landlord. Don't quit your Daydream!   Speaker 6 (00:40:02) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss the host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.   Speaker 7 (00:40:30) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

How do investors in businesses fundamentally differ from operators of businesses? What is intellectually compelling about building and running a business that has not been done before? Are there unique challenges for high-growth proptech businesses? Why do proptechs need to fundamentally understand how humans value where they live? What are the ripple effects within society of having a massive lack of housing supply? Why are smaller entry homes not being built by production homebuilders? What are the reasons there are no scale builders for infill housing today? Why is prefab construction well suited for infill housing? What is driving the ADU revolution? Define missing middle housing and what policies are local jurisdictions passing to stimulate the creation of this needed housing stock? What are the different pathways to homeownership that adding ADUs creates? Does Villa create a competitive advantage by owning the permitting process? Why do investor/operator groups represent a big opportunity for Villa? What changes at the GSEs are stimulating demand for asset capital investment? Which principles of e-commerce has Villa applied to homebuilding?Sean Roberts - CEO of Villa, joins Proptech Espresso to answer these questions and discuss how consumer psychology is underappreciated as a driver of consumer behavior and sentiment for how individual consumers look at real estate.

This episode is a part of Unlocking Loan Solutions with Radian, a micro-learning series for mortgage & real estate professionals, with video, audio, and job aid for each topic. Choose your preferred learning style and take your learning experience to a new level.Watch the VideoDownload the Job AidAll episodesJoin us in this episode as we delve into the topic of Foster Care Income. We'll explore how the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, treat this income type, discuss guidelines around the history of income receipt, and review general documentation requirements. We'll also provide a couple of scenarios to aid your understanding of the use of this income.In this episode we will discuss:What is Foster Care Income and how it is treated by the GSEsGuidelines around the history of receiptGeneral documentation requirementsScenarios to better understand the use of Foster Care IncomeResourcesFannie Mae Selling Guide: B3-3.1-01, General Income Information (12/13/2023)Fannie Mae Selling Guide: B3-3.1-09, Other Sources of Income (02/07/2024)Fannie Mae Selling Guide: What is required for foster-care income?Freddie Mac Seller/Servicer Guide: 5301.1, General requirements for all stable monthly incomeFreddie Mac Seller/Servicer Guide: 5305.2, Specific requirements for other income typesSign up for Radian National Training Updates

The multiyear effort to change the credit scoring models required by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continues to move forward, and mortgage lenders, credit officers and compliance professionals need to know the latest developments. On the latest episode of the ABA Banking Journal Podcast, ABA VP Sharon Whitaker provides an update. Among other topics, Whitaker discusses: The operational challenges of moving from today's tri-merge system to merging just two credit reports. How FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 differ from credit scores in use today. Why rushing the transition might be counterproductive to the initiative's financial inclusion goals. The role of core platforms and other technology vendors in supporting the transition. What may happen in the Federal Housing Finance Agency makes the change but the Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration and others don't. Why the industry needs to see data on how the new credit scoring models would perform, and how banks can get involved in sharing feedback with FHFA. **** Learn more about the credit score transition at the American Mortgage Conference, April 15-17 in Savannah, Georgia. Contact Sharon Whitaker to join ABA's working group on the issue.

This episode is a part of Unlocking Loan Solutions with Radian, a micro-learning series for mortgage & real estate professionals, with video, audio, and job aid for each topic. Choose your preferred learning style and take your learning experience to a new level.Watch the VideoDownload the Job AidAll episodesIn this episode, we explore the concept of parsonage income, also known as a housing allowance, and its impact on a mortgage loan application. We will discuss:What is parsonage income and where it might come fromPotential benefits of parsonage incomeHow the GSEs treat this type of incomeDocumentation requirements for parsonage incomeExample scenarios to help better understand the use of parsonage income in a loan fileResourcesFannie Mae Selling Guide B3-3.1-01, General Income Information - Using Nontaxable Income to Adjust the Borrower's Gross Income Fannie Mae Selling Guide, What is required for housing or parsonage allowance?Fannie Mae Selling Guide B3-3.1-09, Other Sources of Income- Housing or Parsonage AllowanceFreddie Mac Selling Guide 5305.2, Specific requirements for other income types Freddie Mac Selling Guide 9202.3, Borrower income documentation for workout or relief optionsExplore more complex income types, including non-taxable sources, social security income, child support and alimony.Foundations On Demand Course: Not Your Ordinary Income Not Your Ordinary Income: Social Security BenefitsNot Your Ordinary Income: Military PaySign up for Radian National Training Updates

Craig Morely has served on several boards and had a great deal of exposure to appraisers in trouble. Today, he sits down with Dustin to share some advice on how to avoid getting yourself into hot water. He also shares some great advice on how to retire in this profession.

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Dave Stevens, CEO at Mountain Lake Consulting and former CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, about challenges in the MBS market and the GSEs' aggressive stance on loan repurchases.Related to this episode:Opinion: Who will buy the mortgages?Fannie and Freddie face dilemma in loan repurchasesHousingWire's YouTube ChannelEnjoy the episode!HousingWire Annual is where the community from across the housing ecosystem comes together to share strategies, drive business, discover new technologies, discuss best practices, and meet industry leaders. Our agenda is power packed with content to propel your company to the next level and connect you with the industry playmakers. Click here to learn more!The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team.

In many world nations, if you're born poor, you stay poor. I discuss how in America, you can be upwardly mobile. Back in 2010, real estate prices had fallen, but rents had not. This created years of cash flow. Today, as prices have outpaced rents, cash flow keeps shrinking. Our Investment Coaches have access to income properties with 4.75% and 5.75% mortgage interest rates. It's a way to "bring back cash flow". Get started at GREmarketplace.com/Coach Terrific housing intelligence analyst Rick Sharga joins us for the first of two consecutive episodes. Rick & I discuss the condition of the American consumer, inflation and interest rates, concerns about a potential economic downturn, the housing market, the impact of consumer confidence on spending, and the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to control inflation.  There's flagging consumer confidence and a yield curve inversion. Are these finally harbingers of an economic recession? Rick's informal survey of economists find that there's a 50-50 chance of a recession this cycle. Earlier this year, 80% of economists felt that a recession was imminent. If there is a recession this cycle, Rick thinks there's a probability that it will be mild. Average hourly wages are $28-29 / hour. Wage growth is 4-5%. Wages are finally running higher than home price appreciation. Timestamps: The Future of Real Estate Investing [00:01:33] Discusses how owning real estate can help individuals move into a different wealth class and the benefits of owning rental properties. Changes in the Real Estate Market [00:04:06] Explains how the real estate market has changed over the years, with property prices catching up to rents and the decrease in cash flow opportunities. Taking Advantage of Low Mortgage Rates [00:07:53] Highlights the opportunity for investors to take advantage of low mortgage rates offered by builders and the benefits of using their preferred lenders. (Yes, even here in 2023. We have 4.75% and 5.75% rates that builders buy down.) The housing market correction [00:11:31] Discussion on the correction in the housing market and its localized impact on different regions. Economic landscape of the United States [00:16:09] Overview of the US economy, including GDP growth and the strength of consumer spending. Wage growth and home price appreciation [00:20:16] Comparison of wage growth outpacing home price growth, impacting housing market affordability. Consumer Confidence and Spending [00:21:24] The correlation between consumer confidence and spending during the pandemic, the impact of subsequent waves of COVID, and the role of pent-up consumer demand and government stimulus. Red Flags in Consumer Spending [00:22:25] The disconnect between consumer spending and low confidence scores, the record level of consumer credit card use, and the decrease in personal savings rates. Inflation and the Federal Reserve [00:25:44] The high inflation rate in 40 years, the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to control inflation, the impact on housing costs, and the potential for a recession. Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Predictions [00:31:07] Discussion on the yield curve inversion and its historical correlation with recessions. Impact of Recession on the Housing Market [00:32:04] Exploration of the potential impact of a recession on the housing market. Part Two: State of the Housing Market and Future of Investment Real Estate [00:33:03] Teaser for the next episode, which will analyze the state of the housing market and the future of investment real estate. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/466 Rick Sharga on X (Twitter): @RickSharga Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Today, it's part one of two of my exclusive interview with one of the nation's foremost housing intelligence analysts. How's the condition of today's American consumer? What's the future of inflation, the Fed interest rates? And should you really be concerned about a downturn today on get rich education?   Corey Coates (00:00:28) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.   Keith Weinhold (00:00:51) - Welcome from Orange County, Florida, to Orange County, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. You're listening to one America's longest running and most listened to shows on real estate. With nearly nine years of weekly episodes. You're listening to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Wine expert, housing and mortgage analyst Rick Sugar is back and he is figuratively waiting in the wings. Here to give us an update on the economy shortly. In many nations of the world, if you are born poor, you stay poor. It's really hard to change wealth classes because you can't own anything in so many world places.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:33) - If you're born middle class, you also stay middle class. There's no way out of that. Owning real estate is the number one way to move yourself into a different wealth class. Owning your own business is another way, but with owning real estate, it's quite easy to follow a template and do what someone else has already done. Within a proven system. You don't have to have a new out-of-the-box business idea. For example, in the US, if you start collecting assets that pay you each month, you can quickly become upwardly mobile. In America, even if you were born into poverty and have a long line of impoverishment in your family, you can own your own home and that can help you go from poor to middle class. You can add rental properties and go from poor or middle class to wealthy because if you're in the US you are allowed to own things. Yeah, keep accumulating properties and keep getting rent money from tenants. In so many nations of the world. If you come from modest means, you just cannot get dozens of people or hundreds of people to pay you one third of their income every month.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:52) - But here you can get all these tenants to pay you one third of their salary in rent so you can close that class divide. It's up to you. That's what makes the US great. You can move into a different wealth class, the GSEs, the government sponsored enterprises. They will even give you backing on a bank loan so that you can do this. They're really encouraging this and enticing you to do this with as little as a 3% down payment on your primary residence or 20% down on rental properties. It's like they're almost forcing you to succeed. And there's even a 1% down program for primary residences now available in some places. So the bank gives you the loan, the tenant pays you the rent, and the government gives you the tax break. Like I say, that right there is using other people's money three ways at the same time, the bank, the tenant and the government, it all sort of falls in your lap if you want it to, but you do have to ask for it and you do have to do some arranging and you need to be diligent and attentive to.   Keith Weinhold (00:04:06) - But most Americans, they just aren't wise to this. Now, the real estate market, it has changed from a few years ago. It was spring of 2020 where we had that big inflection point, as you know, because I often discuss it. That was that supply crash. And since that time, home prices have run up faster than rents. But I'd like to give you some broader perspective here. There's something important with real estate investing that you may not have realized coming out of the global financial crisis 2008, 2009, 2010. At 2010, when we really started to lift up out of the rubble because by 2010, property prices were still down low. They were near the rock bottom. They're even lower than replacement costs in a lot of markets, which was artificially low. But see, rents didn't really fall much in the GFC. Rents stayed the same. So you know what happened in 2010 and all the years following it will cash flow began. And that's because all over America you then had these high rents and low purchase prices that had been beaten down by the GFC.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:18) - Cash flow like that wasn't really normal, but by now property prices have caught up to rents and even surpassed them. So besides investors being used to low mortgage rates, these ultra low rates, they also got used to this ultra high ratio of rent income to purchase price. That's just not there like it used to be. So today, in more places, you can't expect much of anything for cash flow now with a few years of. Income property ownership. Say if you bought something late this year, a few years later, now you shouldn't count on it. But rents, as we know, historically rise to then start providing you with cash flow to complement the other four ways that you're simultaneously paid. So my point is that today the deals aren't as good as they were ten years ago and five years ago, and that is all part of the provenance and perspective that I'm sharing with you from the real estate investing landscape starting from back around 15 years ago. But today I posit that it is still difficult to find a better place to invest a dollar than with a loan on carefully bought income property.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:31) - And I have some really good news for you here. All right. We know higher mortgage rates. They're not just a pain point for first time homebuyers and second time homebuyers for that matter, but they're a pain point for you, the investor. Well, if you didn't already know, we have largely sort of that problem here at Gray. And that is why investors like you are still snapping up rental properties fast. From Marketplace today, owner occupied mortgage rates are about 7% in income. Property rates are about 8%. But because of the strength of our marketplace networks and relationships here we have one new build provider offering a mortgage rate of 5.75%. Yes, they will see that your mortgage rate is bought down to 5.75% for your purchase. Yes, right here in today's environment, another new build investment property provider is offering a buy down to 4.75%. Yes, you heard that right. And we have another builder provider where our investment coaches have been sharing with you a 2.99% seller financing option. So is cash flow back? Yes, a lot of times it is.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:53) - The builders know that it's a pain point for buyers and our coaches and I hear a Gary know it too, So we have rubbed salve on the wound here, I suppose. 5.75% interest rates, 4.75 or even 2.99. At times you'll have to use the builders preferred lender to get those terms. Otherwise I like to use Ridge lending Group because they specialize in income property loans. There is even more to it. These builders are in business to move property, so take advantage of it. And besides buying down your mortgage rate for you like that, some are even waiving their property management fee for you for the first year, in addition to buying down the rate and don't know how long all this is going to last. So this could be a really good time for you to contact your investment coach. Your coach will help you shop the marketplace properties, tell you where the real deals are and tell you how to get those improbably low mortgage rates for income properties. Your coach guides you and makes it easy for you If you don't have an investment coach yet, just go to Marketplace slash coach and they're there to help you out.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:11) - Hey, it's really great to have the savvy and the experience of Rick Shaka back on the show today. His mind is always in the market. He's often doing these public speaking appearances informing audiences about it. He's been the executive vice president of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms. We have so much to discuss that Today's episode is part one of two back to back episodes with Rick. This week, we'll discuss the direction of the economy. Next week, we'll go deep on the housing market. But even our discussion on the economy today is probably going to be viewed through the lens of having real estate investors in mind. So this intelligence is fresh and it is timely here in fall of 2023. But even if you're listening to this, a decade from now, in 2033, you are going to get lessons for all time. It's the economy this week and the real estate market next week. It could be a day or two until we have today's episode on Get Rich Education YouTube. But you can watch us there as well if you want the visuals and charts that complement our discussion.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:19) - Many of the sources that he cites today will be from Trading economics in the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. What's the present and future of the economy, especially as it pertains to real estate investor interest with Rick and I straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold in this is get rich education. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They've provided our tribe with more lows than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25.   Keith Weinhold (00:11:31) - K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them, it's all backed by real estate and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660, and this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. This is real estate investment cogeneration. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream. And you're going to get a fantastic market update today. And you're also going to learn lessons even if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest was first with us here six months ago. He's been the executive VP of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms. He was twice named to the Inman News Inman 100 most influential real estate leaders.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:54) - He is one of the country's most frequently quoted sources on real estate, mortgage and foreclosure markets. You've seen him seemingly everywhere CNBC, CBS News, NBC News, CNN, ABC News, Fox, Bloomberg in NPR got about just every letter of the alphabet in there on that one. Today, he's the founder and CEO of J. Patrick Company. They're a market intelligence firm for the real estate and mortgage markets. He has 20 plus years of experience in those industries. Hey, welcome back to Rick Saga. Thank you for having me, Keith. Happy to be here. It's an interesting time. Rick. I think some people are rather confused because you have such unusually low housing supply still. You have higher mortgage rates and we're careful not to call them high mortgage rates because we know historically they're pretty normal. And you have what I would characterize is a rather distinct regional variation in home price appreciation. So we're going to get some clarity today from that confusion. Now, if you're listening on audio only, Rick will describe the charts in a way that gives you a good experience.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:03) - If you're watching this on YouTube, go ahead and give us a like. So we really anticipate, Rick, your take on both the broader economy first and then the real estate market. That's exactly what we're going to go over today. And before we get started, I think you said something I'd like to emphasize a little bit. And this is something we talked about. I believe the last time we chatted is I've been saying all along that we were not going to see a housing market crash. We were going to see a correction of sorts and that the correction was going to be very, very localized. That the results you see in coastal California, in the Pacific Northwest, in markets that were overpriced, like Boise and Salt Lake City and Phoenix and Austin, we're going to be very different than what you saw on the East Coast, particularly the southeastern states, places like Tennessee and Florida and the Carolinas and virtually everywhere else in Texas other than Austin. So it's really worked out that way. There are some markets where we're seeing double digit price declines and other markets where prices continue to go up.   Keith Weinhold (00:15:05) - And we'll get into the national trends in a minute. But thought that was a really important point. Keith Yeah, Thank you for adding that, at least for a while there. Rick. It was one of the most unusual home price appreciation maps I have ever seen. There were some exceptions, but generally the nation east of the Mississippi River, you had rising home prices and recently west of the Mississippi River, you had falling home prices like a river divided it. It was really weird. To your point, it's normalized a little bit. I live in California. Speaking of weird and the pricing out here, the month over month prices and year over year prices went down for the first time in quite a while for about four consecutive months before normalizing in July. Now, even within California, you see different price trends depending on where you are in the state. But the point is really important for investors to remember that you almost threw the national numbers out, that they're important from a trend perspective, but you really need to become an expert in whatever market you happen to be investing in because the local conditions really determine how successful you're going to be.   Keith Weinhold (00:16:09) - Like the national outdoor temperature average is pretty useless, almost somewhat like the national home price average is. I guess the national home price average Still has some meaning to it though. Yeah, and you don't find quite as much variation in home price trends as you do in temperatures, but your points well taken. And again, it's important to be looking for economic trends. It's important to be looking for housing market trends and the markets that you're interested in investing in because that makes all the difference. So we're just going to talk about the general economic landscape of the United States, and then we're going to pivot into real estate and just what's going on with the housing market and getting the latest there. Yeah, why don't we jump right into it at this point, Keith, We're going to do a fall update on the housing market for this year. We're going to take a look at the economy. We'll take a look at what's going on in housing. I have a few slides to share on what's going on to delinquencies and defaults because I know a lot of investors are interested in foreclosure properties.   Keith Weinhold (00:17:11) - And then we'll have some closing thoughts and then you can chat a little bit more about some of the observations we're making in the market today. Let's start talking about that economy, including that part where some people anymore, year after year, they're always predicting this recession that never quite seems to happen. Well, we have predictions of a recession that are very much like predictions of a housing crash. And if you keep predicting that terrible thing long enough, someday you'll probably be right. It'll be right eventually. Just like a broken clock is right. Broken clock. It's right twice a day. So the GDP, the gross domestic product is the way that that most economists measure the strength of the economy. And the second quarter, this number was just adjusted downward a little bit, but we still had over 2% growth for the second quarter of 2023. That was a higher number than most economists had forecast. It was certainly a higher number than what the Federal Reserve was expecting. But it really shows you the strength of the US consumer.   Keith Weinhold (00:18:09) - A lot of people probably don't realize that almost two thirds of the GDP is comprised of consumer spending. There's other factors that go into it business spending, government spending, productivity, trade and the like. But two thirds of it is consumer spending. So when you see the GDP showing strong numbers, it typically means that the consumer is doing pretty well. And that's an important consideration as we move forward. Yeah, that's right. One of those reasons consumers are spending is because we're in this economy where pretty much if you want to have a job, then you've got a job. Yeah. The headlines read about tech companies doing layoffs and mortgage companies doing layoffs. Bottom line is the most recent unemployment numbers we saw were 3.8%. I think we're getting a little spoiled by some of these low unemployment rates because people forget historically, anytime you were under 5% unemployment, it was considered full employment. And the fact of the matter is there's still more jobs open than there are people looking for work. There's about 9.5 million open jobs in about 6 million people who are looking for work.   Keith Weinhold (00:19:11) - So employers have to compete with each other for those employees. And so these low unemployment levels are actually one of the things that's causing wages to go up, which continues to stoke inflation when there are more open jobs than there even are workers that makes employers want to entice employees with higher pay. Yeah, they need to do that to keep employees on the payrolls and they need to do that to hire new employees. So whether you look at hourly wages, which at the moment are up around 28, $29 an hour, or you're looking at annual wage growth, which is running around 4 to 5% a year. Wages are very strong right now. And this is the first time, Keith, in many years that I've been able to tell people that wage growth actually is running higher than home price appreciation for well over a decade. We saw home prices appreciate much more rapidly than we saw wages. And this is the first time in a while where that situation has been reversed. That's a really interesting takeaway, Rick.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:16) - Wage growth that's outstripping home price growth and that's going to be important going forward because one of the big headwinds that the housing market faces today is affordability. Despite what we just talked about, home prices nationally are running at all time high levels. We're going to talk about the cost of financing be much higher than it was just a year ago. And wage growth is the one positive in that category. As wages continue to grow and if home prices settled out a little bit, affordability ultimately will be a little bit better for potential homebuyers. Average wages at 28 to $29 an hour, Americans are basically making a dollar every two minutes now yet could be worse. And that varies, again, market to market, shock to job, but it shows you what's going on on average, partly because of this, consumer spending continues to be very strong. But one of the the real unusual situations we're looking at today is that there's usually a direct correlation between consumer confidence and consumer spending. And the more confident consumers feel about things, the more willing they are to spend money, particularly on big ticket items like cars and houses.   Keith Weinhold (00:21:24) - And that was all true. And the correlation held true until we hit the pandemic. And as we started to come out of the first wave of Covid, you saw consumer confidence start to go up, but then it came back down as we had subsequent waves of Covid. Then we had the war in Ukraine that we had high inflation and all sorts of other odds and ends. And consumer confidence has really never recovered back to pre-pandemic levels while consumer spending has continued to go up. And part of that is pent up consumer demand. We still hear people talking about supply chain delays, trying to order appliances and the like and having to wait for months. Part of it is all the stimulus money that the government poured into the economy during the pandemic and probably overstimulated the economy to a certain extent. One of my economist friends refers to what the government did in terms of stimulus, is trying to stuff $15 trillion into a $3 trillion hole. And the numbers may be a little lost. But think the visuals is image is kind of good.   Keith Weinhold (00:22:25) - But this disconnect we're seeing between. How much money consumers are spending and their relative low confidence scores is a red flag of sorts in a couple of ways. It's a red flag, among other ways, in that if consumer confidence doesn't recover, consumers ultimately could pull back on spending, and that really could ultimately lead us into a recession. Consumer spending outpacing consumer confidence. There are other two other red flags with this consumer spending, and we'll cover them pretty quickly. What is that? Consumer credit card use is at an all time high in the last quarter. For the first time ever, consumer credit card use topped $1 trillion. And the concern here is that consumers in a high cost of living environment may be tapping into credit cards to make ends meet. That's not a good scenario and ultimately is not a scenario that would end well. So part of what we're seeing kind of backstopping or enabling consumer spending is an increased amount of credit card use. The other red flag, Keith, is that consumer personal savings rates have gone down below historic averages.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:33) - So we hit an all time high in savings rates during the pandemic when the government sent out stimulus checks and unemployment benefits were enhanced. And candidly, there wasn't a lot consumers could buy. So they socked away a lot of this money post-pandemic. We saw savings rates drop down to almost historically low levels and they haven't come back much up from that. So the two red flags that we really are looking at right now, that could be indicators of trouble ahead for the economy are record level credit card use and lower than average savings rates. And again, both of those suggest that families who are sort of on the margins financially might be tapping into credit cards, might be tapping into their savings to make ends meet. In fact, I read some recent research that suggests that on average, most households have higher credit card debt than they have savings. It's not a great scenario, and this is consistent with many sources citing the fact that between 60 and 70% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Yeah, and it almost doesn't matter how high that paycheck is, which is a little bit counterintuitive.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:43) - I remember doing an interview on CNN years ago when Evander Holyfield mansion was being foreclosed on. It was a $30 million mansion outside of Georgia with two bowling alleys, swimming pool, indoor boxing rinks, basketball courts, the whole nine yards. I had to explain to the reporter that just because you're wealthy doesn't mean you're not living paycheck to paycheck. It's just sometimes there's more zeros to the left of the decimal point. Their cost of living tends to be much higher. So expenses are keeping up with income. All right, Expenses keep up with income. What's been going on in terms of consumer spending, in terms of wage growth, in terms of the GDP being strong has all contributed to inflation. And we had the highest inflation rate in 40 years. Not too long ago, we were up over 9% inflation year over year. And the Federal Reserve has taken very aggressive actions to try and get inflation under control. The primary tool they use is raising the Fed funds rate, which is basically what sets the rates on all short term interest.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:44) - And they've raised it more rapidly and higher than it pretty much any time in history. If you go back to the 80s, they actually raised the Fed funds rate higher because inflation was completely out of control then, but not as quickly as they did this time. So typically what you see is something more like what the Fed did say back in the 2015, 2016 period, where inflation ticked up a little bit. So they raise the Fed funds rate a little and they waited a while to see what kind of impact it would have. Then they raise it a little bit more and it's kind of a step by step process until they feel that inflation is peaked and they can then drop off the Fed funds rate. This time they raised it at higher increments they'd ever done before and much more rapidly. The good news is it does seem to be having its effect. The most recent inflation numbers are around 3% year over year, which is close to the Fed's target rate of 2% year over year. And a lot of the inflation rate that is reported on is housing costs.   Keith Weinhold (00:26:42) - And most of the housing costs are actually rental rates or what the Fed refers to is the rental equivalency. If you have a mortgage. And what we have seen is rental rates have gone back down from ridiculously high, asking prices. A year or so ago, it wasn't unusual to see an asking rent 15% higher than the prior rent rate. And that's in a market where the usual increase is 1 to 4%. So it was just completely off the charts. Those numbers have all come back to normal. And in some markets, we're actually seeing slight declines in year over year rental asking prices. The reason the Ric is bringing rents into the inflation discussion here is because rent and something called owners equivalent rent are a substantial contributor to the. They comprise more than a third of the CPI basket. Exactly right, Keith. And thank you for reminding me why I started this dissertation. The fact is that that decrease in rental costs has not hit the Fed's inflation numbers yet. There's about a full year lag in the housing numbers that the Fed uses in its CPI analysis and what's going on in the real market.   Keith Weinhold (00:27:52) - So if the Federal Reserve does nothing else, these housing costs get caught up. We will see inflation come down a little bit more. A lot of us are hoping that the Fed is done with its increases because of what's happened historically. Historically speaking, if you go all the way back to World War Two, the Federal Reserve not counting this cycle, has raised the Fed funds rate 11 times to get inflation under control. Eight of those times it's waited a little bit too long or it's waited for inflation until inflation got too high and it was a little bit too sticky and they had to overcorrect. And that ultimately steered us into a recession. There were three times once in the 60s, once in the 80s and once in the 90s where the Fed acted proactively to try and get inflation under control. And in those three cases, they were able to steer us into a soft landing and avoid a recession. In this case, they've already admitted they waited too long. They admitted that inflation got much higher than they expected.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:48) - It certainly wasn't as transitory as they'd hoped. So the likelihood is that they've already overcorrected and we will see something of a recession. They may get lucky this time. They may have actually walked the tightrope correctly. And assuming they don't continue with this aggressive course of action, they may have actually managed to work us into a soft landing this time. Yeah, and that is a terrific history lesson that you gave us, Rick. I often like to tell my audience about when you want to predict the future direction of something. I'd like to take history over hunches. It's easy to have a hunch that something's going to go a certain direction. But you look at history. You talked about basically how the Fed was late to identify inflation because they had called it transitory for a while, so they started hiking too late. Now, maybe they've overhyped or maybe they haven't. But if they have, maybe they will need to lower them too quickly. If they don't have that desired soft landing. The economists that follow right now are split about 5050 on whether we'll actually see a recession coming out of this cycle.   Keith Weinhold (00:29:51) - It was more like 8020, looking for a recession just a few months ago. Right. The economy is slowing a little bit. The last jobs report had about 187,000 jobs created, which was a good number, but it was lower than what we've seen in recent reports. So the economy slowing down, but not going to full stop or going into negative terms is an indication that maybe we do escape a recession. Good news, by the way, is even if we do have a recession, the rest of the economic measures that you look at are also strong, that it's very likely it would be a very short and very mild recession, and unemployment probably wouldn't get over about four and a half or 5%. So that's something to keep in mind as you go forward. You talked about history, Keith. I big on that too, history as a predictor of what might happen. Yeah. The other thing that points to a recession is something called a yield curve inversion. And without getting too inside baseball on people, people track the yield on a ten year US Treasury and they track the yield on a two year US Treasury and typically your yield on a short investment like a two year Treasury is lower than your yield on a ten year or longer investment because there's more risk involved in the longer time period and so forth and so on.   Keith Weinhold (00:31:07) - Every now and then, the bond market senses a disruption in the force. Darth Vader is looming over the market and you see these things switch places and suddenly the yield on a ten year US Treasury is lower than the yield on a two year US Treasury, and that's called a yield curve inversion. Now yield curve inversion doesn't cause a recession, but the last seven times we've had one, it's correctly predicted that a recession was coming and this current period we're in is one of the longer and deeper inversions that we've ever seen. So again, if you look at history as a predictor of the future, this yield curve inversion points toward us having a recession at some point before we get through the cycle. And I know yield curves can confuse a lot of people. If you're the listener or the viewer here, make a very long term loan to a friend, well, you'd want to get compensated with a higher interest rate for that higher risk amount than if you made a short term loan to a friend and he was paying you back.   Keith Weinhold (00:32:04) - Tomorrow, you might not charge him much of any interest at all because there's more certainty that you're going to get paid back. But that condition has been inverted, where when you make the long loan to the buddy, you're compensated with a lower interest rate yield. That is what is known as a yield curve inversion. Yeah. And I think yield curve throws people off. If you just think of it in terms of the yields, that probably makes it simpler. But again, if you're looking at recession predictors, these are the two. That I typically look at. And that's kind of important to know if you're going to be investing in the housing market because recessions can have an impact on the housing market. Rick thinks there's a likelihood that the Fed has already overcorrected with too many interest rate increases. If we do have a recession, Rick believes that it's most likely to be mild without many layoffs. Rick and I, we actually seem to agree on a lot of things. We see a lot of things the same way.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:03) - Maybe it would be more interesting for you if we disagreed a bit more to stay up on the latest moves in the real estate market. You can follow Rick Saga on X, formerly known as Twitter. His handle there is simply Rick Saga. Well, Rick made a Darth Vader reference there. And, you know, much like the original Star Wars movie had the sequel, which was called The Empire Strikes Back. You know, that was one sequel that some people liked more than the original. And that is atypical because usually people like the original more. But The Empire Strikes Back was a fantastic sequel, and I think that could happen here next week. Rick and I are back together for part two of two, the sequel. We are probably going to analyze and break down the state of the housing market and the future of investment real estate. And we should go on for twice as long on that as we did for today on the economy. So therefore, next week is kind of like the Empire Strikes Back, although I don't expect that next week Darth Vader is going to cut off Luke Skywalker's hand like what happened in the movie.   Keith Weinhold (00:34:10) - That just wouldn't be proper. And we're clearly not into improprieties around here.   Darth Vader (00:34:18) - You are unwise to lower your defenses.   Keith Weinhold (00:34:23) - Oh, Luke lost his hand this week. Not next week. Well, that's not even the scene where Luke loses his hand, But, hey, that totally worked. So. Getting back to real estate here, you need properties to be an investor. The builders know that higher mortgage rates are a pain point for buyers. Our coaches and I hear a know it too. So we have. Yes. Rubbed salve on the wound 5.75% interest rates, 4.75% or even 2.99%. And at times you're going to have to use the builder's preferred lender in order to get those terms. But really some remarkable Bibles that we've negotiated for you. So take advantage of it since I don't know how long that is going to be around. In fact, I'll even bring up those rate by down terms to Rick Saga next week and get his take to help you out on the cash flow side. We also have access to properties that would make good mid term corporate rentals in the southeastern US midterm rentals.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:27) - They often have higher cash flow than a traditional long term unfurnished rental. For any and all of that, contact your investment coach, you're probably working with one by now. They'll help you shop the marketplace properties, tell you where the real deals are and tell you how to get those improbably low mortgage rates for income properties. Your coach guides you and makes it easy for you If you don't have an investment coach yet, just go to Marketplace. Com slash coach and they're there to help you out until next week I'm your host Keith Winfield. Don't quit your Adrian.   Speaker 4 (00:36:08) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:36) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.

What is best kept secret for understanding market dynamics and being good in investment banking?  You must understand: WHO are the firm's clients and WHY they need you?  We arm you with the intel to ace any banking interview — either on the IBD corporate advisory side, or on the Sales, Trading, and Research side of the bank — by explaining a select few clients' motivating factors.  We talk about hedgers vs. speculators in the markets, and strategic vs. financial buyers in the world of acquisitions.  In this episode, we also explain duration and convexity hedging through the lens of GSEs, bank portfolios, mortgage servicers, pension funds, and insurance companies.  By the end of the hour, you'll understand giant forces moving global markets in new ways.  Plus, you'll now be able to tell all your friends that you learned how convexity works by watching Barbie.Follow us on Instagram and Tik Tok at @thewallstreetskinnyhttps://www.instagram.com/thewallstreetskinny/

It sure can feel that way. Shawn Telford, Chief Appraiser at Corelogic, joins Dustin to talk change. How will the changes coming to the valuation world affect appraisers?

If you haven't heard, the government is giving people with good credit scores higher interest rates when it comes to getting a home loan. WHAT? Why are they punishing good credit?  Well, as usual, David Sidoni is here to give you the REAL story behind those clickbait headlines, and it's not quite as bad as it sounds. But, keep listening so you know what's up and how it affects you.  Here are some takeaways from today's conversation: An overview of GSEs and how they work Who will be affected by loan level price adjustments A look at the numbers and data (of course) Why this isn't exactly the subsidy it sounds like Episode Highlights: [02:26] What's Going On? So, these headlines tell you that the government is the one behind all this. Well, not exactly. It's a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), which, in this case, is supervised by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and is run like a for-profit business. Weird, right? They're called Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and they are the ones that give out the loans. BUT it gets wilder. These loans, although the organizations are advised by a government-appointed director, aren't backed or insured by government money. And it's these ones that are facing the good credit score punishment, not ones that ARE backed by government money, so FHA, USDA, and VA loans are safe.  [11:11] So, What Should You know? So, those with higher down payments and higher credit scores usually pay less, but with this new policy, you'll still pay less than people with low down payments and low credit scores, but the difference isn't that big. So, it's not as good for lower score people and not as bad for higher score people. Now, upfront fees for loans from Freddie and Fannie will face some changes called “loan level price adjustments.” These will tweak interest rates for many home buyers (remember, not those backed by government funds).  [21:31] Is This a Subsidy? To get to the point, it's not exactly a subsidy. It's not really a Robin Hood situation where you're taking from the rich and giving to the poor. It's really just minimizing the cost difference in the spectrum. But, as a business, this really just doesn't make any sense because it doesn't even the playing field the way it should. But don't be too concerned about this, because if you're getting ready to buy a home, this could change by the time you are ready.  Resources: How the US Is Subsidizing High Risk Home Buyers at the Cost of Those With Good Credit - New York Post Setting the Record Straight on Mortgage Pricing - FHFA

Fannie and Freddie are changing some rules that could make home loans more expensive for people with high credit scores, and less expensive for those at the low-end of that spectrum. Critics say the rules amount to an unfair subsidy for high-risk borrowers, but the GSE's say it's a misconception about what they are changing.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   You may have seen the headlines already. One says: “A Bigger Subsidy for Risky Mortgages.” Another says: “Upside Down Mortgage Policy.” Another says this new policy will “screw Up the Homebuying Market.”   The headlines refer to a new rules from the Federal Housing Finance Agency regarding loan-level price adjustments or LLPAs for conventional loans. They officially kick in on May 1st, although some lenders have already been incorporating them into their fee structures.    What's an LLPA?   If you have a mortgage that's backed by Fannie or Freddie, you have paid or are paying this fee. LLPAS are fees that the government-sponsored enterprises charge when they buy loans from lenders. The fee is passed on to borrowers as a percentage of the loan and the amount is based on the borrower's risk factors such as credit score and down payment. People with higher risk factors pay higher LLPAs, and they can be paid up front or with higher monthly mortgage payments.    Business Insider offers a few examples of how the new pricing structure will impact borrowers.    1 - Someone who might see an increase could have a credit score of 700 with a 20% down payment for a $300,000 loan. They would have previously paid 1.25% of that loan amount or $3,750. With the new fee structure, they'd pay 1.375% or $4,125, which is an increase of $375. (1)   2 - Someone who might see a decrease could have a credit score of 780 but a down payment of just 3%. Previously, they would have paid .75% on a $300,000 loan or $2,250. With the new rules, they'd pay .135% or $375. That's a $1,875 reduction.   NAR, NAHB Opposed to the New Rule   The National Association of Realtors is among those criticizing the rule change. It is encouraging the FHFA to rescind the new rule especially given the affordability issues facing home buyers. It suggests instead that: “The GSEs could simply reduce the fees for (higher risk) borrowers and maintain the others at the same cost—especially given the sharp decline in affordability over the last year.” (2)   National Association of Home Builders CEO, Jerry Howard, told Newsweek: "In the short term, this may increase homeownership among the targeted group, but I'm afraid it could decrease homeownership among the middle class. I'm not sure that we're not robbing Peter to pay Paul here." (3)   FHFA Defends New Rules   FHFA Director Sandra Thompson issued a press release this week to “set the record straight.” She says: “Much of what has been reported advances a fundamental misunderstanding about the fees charged by the GSEs and why they were updated.” She says the pricing structure hadn't been updated for many years, and the new pricing structure is the result of a 2021 review. (4)   The goal: “To maintain support for purchase borrowers limited by income or wealth, ensure a level playing field for large and small lenders, foster capital accumulation at the Enterprises, and achieve commercially viable returns on capital over time.”   The overhaul has been done in steps over the last 18 months, beginning with fee increases for loans on second homes, high balance loans, and cash-out refi's. Then some fees were eliminated for first-time homebuyers with lower incomes but the means to meet their loan obligations. She says in her statement that this latest step is a recalibration of upfront tees that will make the housing finance system more resilient.   Among the misconceptions, she says:   1 - Stronger credit borrowers are not subsidizing weak credit borrowers. She claims that fees generally increase for lower credit scores, despite the down payment.   2 - She says the new fee structure does not raise the fees for all low-risk borrowers. She says many borrowers with high credit scores or high down payments will see no change in their fees or even a decrease.   3 - She says the old framework was not perfectly calibrated to risk. She says it was essentially outdated, and is now better aligned for the performance of a mortgage relative to its risk.   4 - The new rules do not encourage low-income borrowers to pay a lower down payment to benefit from lower fees because they will also have to pay mortgage insurance premiums.   5 - The elimination of upfront fees is not for people with lower credit scores but for borrowers with lower incomes, and she says they are essentially supported by the loan fees for second homes and cash-out refi's (and not by good credit, high down payment borrowers).   6 - The changes are not intended to stimulate mortgage demand, but rather to advance the soundness and safety of the GSE's.   The old and new fee structures are listed on the Fannie Mae website. You'll find links to those tables in the show notes if you'd like to compare. (5) (6)   Impact on Real Estate Investors   So how does this impact real estate investors?   Shawn Huss of Warsaw Federal told RealWealth: “For investment lending, it has helped out in some situations with better pricing when you have a greater down payment or a two to four unit. For a multi-unit, Fannie used to charge 1.0 points in additional pricing. Now if an investor's credit score is 780 or higher, it is only .375%. Another example is pricing used to be 2.125 points in pricing for 70% loan-to-value.  With the new pricing, at 70%, the pricing is better by .50 points which helps with lower rates.”   The new pricing structure only impacts conventional loans – not jumbo loans, FHA mortgages, or other non-conforming loans.   You'll find links to the stories I mentioned at newsforinvestors.com including the charts from Fannie Mae where you can compare the two pricing structures.   And please, remember to hit the Join for Free button at RealWealth and subscribe to our podcast.   Thanks for listening, Kathy   Links:   1 - https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/biden-fhfa-new-mortgage-fee-structure-2023-4   2 - https://www.nar.realtor/washington-report/nar-advocates-for-fhfa-to-maintain-affordability-for-all-homebuyers   3 - https://www.newsweek.com/biden-raises-costs-homebuyers-good-credit-help-risky-borrowers-1795700   4 - https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Statement-from-FHFA-Director-Sandra-Thompson-on-Mortgage-Pricing.aspx   5 - https://singlefamily.fanniemae.com/media/33201/display   6 - https://singlefamily.fanniemae.com/media/9391/display

With credit card debt exploding, interest rates rising and banks failing, you may not think that title insurance and national settlement services are a big concern to consumers and lenders. Just the opposite is true. In many instances knowing what kind of title insurance to obtain, when to file a title claim and how to use title companies to protect both lenders and borrowers subject to a lawsuit, can be a game changer that will save your “legal hide." For Lenders, GSEs, and investors who are now sitting on toxic loan portfolios that have been in forbearance or workout status for years, the day of reckoning may be coming. Just as free and easy money masked a multitude of problems for Banks that invested poorly in T- Bills and T-Notes, so may the “other shoe drop,” as Lenders sitting on non-performing commercial and residential RE loans, as well as Lenders and GSE's holding unsecured PPP and EIDL loans, may have to face the music that the assets are not worth nearly what they are booked for on the balance sheet. Join Spencer as he interviews Randy Fernando of Property IQ Management as they discuss these issues, how you can protect and prepare, and whether the recent failures of SVB, Signature Bank and the fire sale of Credit Suisse, are just the tip of the iceberg. Disclaimer: None of the legal, or financial opinions or information expressed in this podcast may be relied on as legal, or investment advice by Scheer Law Group, LLP. Laws and economic issues affecting the subjects of this podcast change daily. This mandates specific review of legal or economic issues of interest or concern to you with legal counsel or financial advisors who are experienced in the areas of law or finance discussed in this podcast. For more on Scheer Law Group, LLP, go to www.scheerlawgroup.com

As regional banks contend with sector volatility, commercial real estate could face challenges in securing new loans and refinancing debt when it matures.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about some of the challenges facing the commercial real estate markets. It's Thursday, March 30th at 11 a.m. in New York. Commercial real estate market, or CRE in short, is a hot topic, especially in the context of recent developments in the banking sector. As we have discussed on this podcast, even though banks were already tightening lending standards, given recent events their ability and willingness to make loans is diminished. Besides making loans, banks enable credit formation as buyers of senior tranches of securitizations. A regulatory response to recent events will likely decrease the ability of regional banks to be buyers of such tranches, if risk rates and liquidity capital ratio requirements are revised to reflect duration in addition to credit risk. It's against this backdrop that we think about the exposure of regional banks to CRE. Understanding the nature of CRE financing and getting some numbers is useful to put this issue in context. First, commercial real estate mortgage financing is different from, say, residential real estate mortgage financing in that they are generally non-amortizing mortgages with terms usually 5 or 10 years. That means at term there is a balloon payment due which needs to be refinanced into another 5 or 10 year term loan. Second, there is a heightened degree of imminence to the refinancing issue for CRE. $450 billion of CRE debt matures this year and needs to be refinanced. It doesn't really get easier in the next few years, with CRE debt maturing and needing to be refinanced of about $550 billion per year until 2027. In all, between 2023 and 2027, $2.5 trillion of CRE debt is set to mature, about 40% of which was originated by the banking sector. Third, retail banks' exposure to CRE lending is substantial and their share of lending volumes has been growing in recent years. 70% of the core CRE debt in the banking sector was originated by regional banks. These loans are distributed across major CRE sub-sectors and majority of these loans are under $10 million loans. That the share of the digital banks in CRE debt has ramped up meaningfully in the last few years is actually very notable. That means the growth in their CRE lending has come during a period of peaking valuations. Even in sub-sectors such as multifamily, where lending has predominantly come from other sources, such as the GSEs, banks play a critical role in that they are the buyers of senior tranches of agency commercial mortgage backed securities. As I said earlier, if banks' ability to buy such securities decreases because of new regulations, this indirectly impacts the prospects for refinancing maturing debt in the sector as well. So what is the bottom line? Imminent refinancing needs of commercial real estate are a risk and the current banking sector turmoil adds to this challenge. We believe CRE needs to reprice and alternatives to refinance debt are very much needed. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.