Podcasts about Nvidia

(0:00) Bestie intros! Nick Shirley joins the show to discuss his recent investigation on potential daycare fraud in Minnesota (3:32) Nick's background, how he got into investigative reporting and YouTube, independence, finding this story (16:36) Why this fraud story is resonating, why the national press initially avoided it (30:08) Future plans, California, possible Al-Shabaab connection, how high up does Minnesota's fraud go? (49:15) What the scale of fraud means for America, Minnesota's future, potential patronage scheme (1:09:06) CA's wealth tax: normalizing the seizure of private property (1:33:56) Chamath breaks down the $20B Groq-Nvidia deal Follow Nick Shirley: https://x.com/nickshirleyy Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/nickshirleyy/status/2004642794862961123 https://www.startribune.com/prosecutors-charge-5-people-in-a-minnesota-housing-fraud-scheme/601548944 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/29/us/fraud-minnesota-somali.html https://www.fox9.com/news/fraud-minnesota-detailing-nearly-1-billion-schemes https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2005410646603473256 https://x.com/kevinkileyca/status/2006053056660541840 https://x.com/chamath/status/2006087862492582084 https://x.com/C_3C_3/status/2005722313795440956 https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/2005988021946999166 https://x.com/tomhennessey69/status/2005556784228909441 https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/2005849513676923358 https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2005179409465299219 https://dcyf.mn.gov/programs-directory/child-care-assistance-program https://x.com/susancrabtree/status/2006079778873565541 https://x.com/chamath/status/2005386348169953607 https://x.com/aaronburnett/status/2003874734661161064 https://newsletter.amuseonx.com/p/the-somali-patronage-system-has-taken https://x.com/realdailywire/status/2006122428196442388 https://x.com/rightanglenews/status/2006375449404866720 https://www.auditor.ca.gov/reports/2025-601/

David Faber and Sara Eisen wrapped with another year of double-digit gains for the stock market — and highlighted a number of names which more than doubled or tripled their returns in 2025. Lots to discuss on the AI front: What to expect from hyperscalers in the new year, news involving Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor — and why 2026 is a critical year for Apple. Former Federal Reserve vice chairman Alan Blinder joined the program to discuss what he's expecting from the Fed next year. Mike Santoli offered his perspective on this year's market trends. Also in focus: Warren Buffett's final day as Berkshire Hathaway CEO, Nike CEO Elliott Hill buys $1 million worth of company shares.Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

From the imposition of sweeping tariffs to Nvidia becoming the first $4 trillion — and later $5 trillion — market cap company, 2025 was an eventful year with much to take in. In this episode, Peter and Jeff discuss the Magnificent 7's recent performance, the future of AI, where interest rates might be headed and more. Plus, each provides a tip of the month to help support your well-being in the year ahead.Hosted by Creative Planning's Director of Financial Planning, Jeff Stolper, and President, Peter Mallouk, this podcast takes a closer look into topics that affect investors. Included are in-depth discussions on financial planning issues, the economy and the markets. Plus, you won't want to miss each of their monthly tips!Important Legal Disclosure: creativeplanning.com/important-disclosure-information/Have questions or topic suggestions? Email us @ podcasts@creativeplanning.com

Michael speaks with Craig Singleton, China Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, about the new frontiers of the US-China tech competition. Craig explains China's willingness to weaponize its dominance in rare earth magnets and how that leverage has left US assembly lines vulnerable. He also explores the high-stakes debate over semiconductor export controls, including a controversial profit-sharing deal for NVIDIA's H20 chips with the US government. Finally, Craig discusses the Chinese "five lever playbook" used to dominate critical sectors like polysilicon, LIDAR, and display technologies, warning of "strategic kill switches" in US infrastructure and the emerging national security threat of biotech.

Disney reached a settlement with the Department of Justice over a COPPA violation, sources claim Nvidia approached TSMC to ramp up production of AI chips to meet large increase in demand from China, and GOG changes owners but not mission to sell DRM-free games. MP3 Please SUBSCRIBE HERE for free or get DTNS Live ad-free.Continue reading "Disney Settles with DoJ over COPPA Violation – DTH"

Aaron and Brian make some bold predictions for the 2026 Cloud and AI markets, as well as reviewing the biggest issues going into 2026.  SHOW: 989SHOW TRANSCRIPT: The Cloudcast #989 TranscriptSHOW VIDEO: https://youtube.com/@TheCloudcastNET CLOUD NEWS OF THE WEEK: http://bit.ly/cloudcast-cnotwCHECK OUT OUR NEW PODCAST: "CLOUDCAST BASICS"SHOW NOTES:CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - NOV 2025 (show)CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - OCT 2025 (show)CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - SEPT 2025 (show)CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - AUG 2025 (show)CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - JUL 2025 (show)CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - JUN 2025 (show)CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - MAY 2025 (show)CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - APR 2025 (show)CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - MAR 2025 (show)2026 CLOUD + AI PREDICTIONS (AND BIG ISSUES TO REVIEW)OpenAI Revenues and Focus AreasNVIDIA customer profitabilityCompanies moving to GOOG TPUsEnterprise success beyond CoPilot/GeminiEnterprise data+model trainabilityEnterprise price hikesBroadcom, AMD, Groq - alternative HW optionsData Center buildoutsDoes AI spending shiftWhat is Agentic AI?Long term spending + short term refocusesPREDICTIONS:At least one big AI IPO in 2026, and it won't go well. (Aaron says Anthropic)People will question whether Sam Altman is the right person to lead OpenAIAI will be a central issue in the 2026 US elections, either about job losses or electricity pricesOne major LPU/TPU/dedicated inference chip will break through in 2026Azure will be the Number One Cloud… (Aaron has to keep it going)We will start to see a shift in the Enterprise from big models in the sky (1+trillion parameters) to dedicated, purpose-built models of 500M or less in size for efficiency and securityGemini will dominate the consumer/prosumer space, OpenAI will go through the trough of disillusionmentThe industry will shift to a base/instruct and a reasoning split of modelsAWS and Azure will double down on being a solutions provider instead of a primitive supplier for AI and infrastructureFEEDBACK?Email: show at the cloudcast dot netTwitter/X: @cloudcastpodBlueSky: @cloudcastpod.bsky.socialInstagram: @cloudcastpodTikTok: @cloudcastpod

Kevin Green discusses the “positive sign” in the latest Jobless Claims report and notes how the volatility in the Texas job market is impacting the numbers. KG also covers the strong demand coming out of China for Nvidia's (NVDA) H200 chips, causing the company to ramp up production. He points out trends to watch in solar energy, charting the TAN ETF and drawing attention to tailwinds for the sector next year.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Nvidia (NVDA) became the first stock to ever cross the $5 trillion market cap this year – Rachel Dashiell takes us through the epic rally and the eventual pullback on the chart.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The Information's Cory Weinberg joins TITV Host Akash Pasricha to discuss Uber's potential acquisition of parking app SpotHero. We also talk with Elon Musk Reporter Theo Wayt about xAI's massive third data center expansion in Memphis and Creative Strategies' Austin Lyons about which photonics startups NVIDIA might target for M&A in 2026. Finally, we get into Oracle's potential "chip-backed" securities and Brookfield's new cloud company, Radiant, with AI & Finance Reporter Miles Kruppa.Articles discussed on this episode: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/uber-considers-deal-parking-app-spotherohttps://www.theinformation.com/articles/brookfield-start-cloud-business-lower-cost-aihttps://www.theinformation.com/articles/elon-musks-xai-buys-building-third-supersized-data-centerTITV airs on YouTube, X and LinkedIn at 10AM PT / 1PM ET. Or check us out wherever you get your podcasts.Subscribe to: - The Information on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theinformation- The Information: https://www.theinformation.com/subscribe_hSign up for the AI Agenda newsletter: https://www.theinformation.com/features/ai-agenda

This episode is sponsored by Your360 AI. Get 10% off through January 2026 at Your360.ai with code: INSIDE. Jason Howell and Jeff Jarvis unpack AI consolidation as Nvidia licenses Groq's fast inference chips and Meta buys Manus for $2 billion. Growing anti-AI sentiment over jobs, mental health, and politics emerges alongside OpenAI's high-stakes preparedness role. Finally, Jason and Jeff reflect on 2025's jagged progress and 2026's agent and surveillance shifts. Note: Time codes subject to change depending on dynamic ad insertion by the distributor. CHAPTERS: 0:00 - Start 3:27 - Nvidia, joining Big Tech deal spree, to license Groq technology, hire executives 4:50 - Explaining the Groq deal 15:11 - Meta just bought Manus, an AI startup everyone has been talking about 16:50 - 3 reasons buying Manus could give Meta a much-needed AI boost 27:41 - An Anti-A.I. Movement Is Coming. Which Party Will Lead It? Americans Hate AI. Which Party Will Benefit? 29:46 - Bernie Sanders criticizes AI as ‘the most consequential technology in humanity' 45:11 - ‘This will be a stressful job': Sam Altman offers $555k salary to fill most daunting role in AI 47:15 - * Sell It Before You Make It: Revolutionizing E-Commerce with Personalized AI-Generated Items 51:27 - * What Human-Horse Interactions may Teach us About Effective HumanAI Interactions 52:27 - * FakeParts: a New Family of AI-Generated DeepFakes 55:45 - Karpathy's year in review 58:37 - https://hbr.org/2025/12/the-hbr-charts-that-help-explain-2025 1:04:29 - Jason: 1. Love/Hate and Confusion (people don't know how they really feel about AI)2. General agents show potential but need a LOT of work3. AI for companionship 1:05:39 - Jason:1. How productive ARE we really?2. AI Shopping moves beyond the demo3. A budding surveillance problem Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Market update for Wednesday December 31, 2025Follow us on Instagram (@TheRundownDaily) for bonus content and instant reactions.In today's episode:Nvidia prepares to ramp H200 chip production as demand from China explodesWarner Bros. Discovery plans to reject Paramount's revised takeover offerNike stock jumps on insider buying as Rivian slides on CEO stock salesWarren Buffett officially steps down after one of the greatest investing runs ever

Timestamps: 0:00 James and the Giant Tum 0:13 Maingear's "Bring Your Own RAM" program 1:29 Samsung deals with tech leaks 2:49 Nvidia acqui-hires Groq (not Grok) 4:42 QUICK BITS INTRO 4:53 Asus denies memory fab rumors 5:33 Google allows Gmail address changes 6:24 Old small nuclear reactors for data centers 7:13 iPhones better support earbuds in EU 7:59 Rainbow 6 Siege hack NEWS SOURCES: https://lmg.gg/0eayc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Shelly Palmer has spent 45 years watching technology reshape every industry—from writing news themes for CBS to consulting with every major media company on AI strategy. On this year-end recap, he cuts through the noise with one devastating observation: 2025 was the year everyone talked about AI while almost nobody actually used it. Executives shook their heads knowingly in meetings, pontificated about capabilities the models don't yet have, and parroted nonsense they read from other people who knew nothing. But when you asked one innocent question, they crumbled.In the News: CES 2026 shapes up with Nvidia sponsoring two full days of AI training. Samsung is skipping the main floor for a massive offsite activation. Sony brings no electronics—only Honda's experimental vehicles. The TCL and Chinese companies' presence hinges on tariff policy. The innovation series breakfast that Shelly runs is becoming an official CES event after a decade of independence.The conversation spirals into deeper territory: $3 trillion in government money is stacked behind AI development. The U.S. explicitly states it must beat China to AGI—making this the Manhattan Project of our lifetime. Shelly walks through what he's seen in successful companies (leadership using the tech, paid "Tech Tuesdays" for AI experiments, cross-discipline teams with SecOps and legal at the table) versus the chaos of places with no process. He breaks down what's real—drone warfare, cybersecurity applications, robotics—versus what's hot air. And he makes a case that won't be killed by AI itself, but by militarized applications and the geopolitical arms race we're already in.5 Key Takeaways from Shelly:Leadership belief and hands-on use are non-negotiable. Companies winning with AI have senior leaders who actually use the technology. When the CEO walks into an LT meeting saying "I built this agent over the weekend," everyone else starts experimenting too.The recipe for AI success has three ingredients: leadership belief, paid time to experiment (Tech Tuesdays/Thursdays with real budgets), and cross-discipline teams (SecOps, legal, compliance, risk) paving the way. Chaos erupts without this structure.You cannot build a point of view on AI from reading blogs or watching YouTubers. Pick a personal project you care about, go hands-on with a model (Claude, Gemini, GPT), and complete it from beginning to end. Only lived experience grounds your understanding.AI parallelizes with web 1.0: In 1998, you had to hand-code HTML, build databases manually, write raw JavaScript. Today you can vibe code a site in 90 seconds. AI will eventually reach "spin me up an expert that does X" without asking questions—we're not there yet, but it's inevitable.It's both bubble and Manhattan Project. Some valuations are insane and will burst. But military applications, cyber warfare, drone control, robotics—those aren't going anywhere. The government won't back off. Both outcomes happen simultaneously.This episode is brought to you by Zappar, creators of Mattercraft—the leading visual development environment for building immersive 3D web experiences for mobile headsets and desktop. Mattercraft combines game engine power with web flexibility and features an AI assistant to help you design, code, and debug in real time in your browser. Build smarter at mattercraft.io.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As we turn the calendar to 2026, I reveal my forecasts for the stock market, interest rates, and top asset classes, and take a look back at how my 2025 predictions stacked up against reality. From the S&P 500's rollercoaster performance to the ongoing rivalry between growth and value stocks, and even a showdown between bitcoin and gold, I break down what the numbers were, where I hit the mark, and where I missed. You'll also hear my insights on international versus U.S. stocks, the outlook for small caps, and what the Federal Reserve might do with interest rates in the year ahead. Get ready for smart strategies, listener thank-yous, and a dose of investing reality as I help you set expectations (and goals) for the year to come! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... 00:00 Happy New Year! 04:34 S&P 500 Trends and Predictions. 07:49 Market Trends & 2025 Predictions. 08:54 Bitcoin vs Gold & Stock Returns. 11:17 Importance of diversifying with international stocks. 14:20 Investment Predictions for 2026. 17:36 Stay invested to make the best financial gains. How did my 2025 market predictions fare? 2025 turned out to be another rollercoaster, with both triumphs and challenges for investors. Beginning with an impressive performance, the S&P 500 flirted with a 20% annual return, after two previously remarkable years (+25% in 2023 and +23% in 2024). Volatility struck early in April due to concerns about tariffs and political tensions, leading the index to drop as much as 18% year-to-date before rebounding sharply. The market often experiences significant intra-year declines, on average, 14-15% since the 1970s, so these swings are more common than many investors realize. Despite underestimating the final S&P 500 return in my 2025 prediction, it's important to stick with your plan through turbulence. Growth vs. Value One of the perennial debates in investing is whether growth stocks (think Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft) or value stocks (like JPMorgan, Walmart, and Berkshire Hathaway) will come out on top. While value historically outperformed over the long term, the last decade and a half has belonged to growth. I predicted value would outperform in 2025, but growth eked out the win yet again, maintaining its streak. The ETF comparison, Vanguard's VONG for growth and VONV for value, shows just how close the race was, with both categories putting up strong numbers. Large vs. Small Caps: The Size Dilemma Size matters in investing, particularly when it comes to large-cap (S&P 500) versus small-cap (Russell 2000) stocks. I expected small caps to shine in 2025, but large caps led for the fifth consecutive year. The good news is that small caps narrowed the gap, hinting that a turnaround could be on the horizon as economic and regulatory shifts potentially favor these underdogs. Bitcoin vs. Gold For those seeking diversification, Bitcoin and gold are often top contenders. After years of jaw-dropping surges and gut-wrenching drops for Bitcoin, 2025 saw gold steal the spotlight with a phenomenal gain, its best showing since the 1970s, while Bitcoin stumbled. Still, I believe Bitcoin's day in the sun isn't over and predict it will bounce back in 2026. U.S. vs. International Global diversification hasn't paid off for U.S. investors in recent years, as U.S. stocks consistently outpaced their international counterparts. In 2025, the tides turned and international stocks delivered their strongest performance in 15 years, besting the S&P 500's return. It's a timely reminder not to ignore the opportunities abroad, even if I feel U.S. equities still have the edge for 2026 due to ongoing innovation and growth potential. Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Few factors move markets like interest rate decisions. Predicting three cuts and a year-end rate of 3.5–3.75%, I called it accurately for 2025. Looking to 2026, I expect another two cuts, with possible changes in leadership at the Fed adding an extra dose of uncertainty. Key Takeaways for 2026 So, what's the game plan for the coming year? I predict a tempered 8.5% return for the S&P 500, a possible value and small-cap renaissance, Bitcoin's comeback, U.S. stocks leading, and a cautious but optimistic approach to interest rates. But the most valuable advice is to stay invested. Market timing is notoriously difficult, and missing just a few of the market's best days can devastate long-term returns. For those investing for a comfortable retirement, discipline and diversification remain your best allies. Resources Mentioned Retirement Readiness Review Subscribe to the Retire with Ryan YouTube Channel Download my entire book for FREE  Berkshire Hathaway J.P. Morgan ExxonMobil Walmart United Healthcare Connect With Morrissey Wealth Management  www.MorrisseyWealthManagement.com/contact   Subscribe to Retire With Ryan

As we enter the final trading week of 2025, Mark Longo breaks down a high-stakes, holiday-shortened Monday session. While the broader markets saw thin liquidity and red screens, several heavy hitters lit up the tape with unusual activity—including a rare top-tier appearance from British American Tobacco. Inside This Episode: The Holiday Volume Slump: Why it only took 265,000 contracts to break into the Top 10 today—the lightest volume since the "dog days of summer." Tesla's Bearish Shift? Tesla takes the #1 spot, but for once, it's the $465 puts dominating the tape as the stock slides over 3%. The "Monster" Monthly Spread: A massive $350/$300 put spread in MicroStrategy (MSTR) captured the attention of volatility hunters. The BTI Dividend Play: Why a sleepy tobacco name saw nearly 200x its average daily volume and what the Jan $50 in-the-money calls tell us about the ex-dividend date. NVDA & Near-Term Upside: Analyzing the heavy retail interest in the Nvidia $190 calls expiring this week. Today's Hot Options Top 10 Countdown: Rank Symbol Last Price Volume Hot Option Contract #1 TSLA $459.64 1.77M **$465 Puts** (Jan 2 Exp) #2 NVDA $188.22 1.63M **$190 Calls** (Jan 2 Exp) #3 BTI $52.00 609K **$50 Calls** (Jan Monthly) #4 PLTR $184.18 478K **$195 Calls** (Jan 2 Exp) #5 AAPL $273.76 370K **$275 Calls** (Jan 2 Exp) #6 MSTR $155.38 338K **$350/$300 Put Spread** #7 AMZN $232.07 282K **$232.5 Calls** (Jan 2 Exp) #8 AMD $215.61 276K **$215 Calls** (Jan 2 Exp) #9 META $658.69 272K **$660 Calls** (Jan 2 Exp) #10 VALE $12.92 265K Jan 2027 $8 Puts Resources & Links: QuikOptions / The Hot Options Report: Access professional-grade data at TheHotOptionsReport.com . Options Insider Pro: Join the community and prepare for the upcoming Vol Death Match 2.0 at TheOptionsInsider.com/Pro . Mobile App: Access the full Radio Network on iTunes and Google Play.

Émission du 30/12/2025 présentée par Amaury de Tonquédec avec Andrea Tueni, Responsable des activités de marchés chez Saxo Banque. Dans cet épisode de Allo La Martingale, Amaury et Andrea ont exploré un exercice à part dans le paysage financier : les prévisions chocs pour 2026.Des scénarios volontairement extrêmes, peu probables (et encore …) mais à fort impact s'ils venaient à se réaliser.L'objectif n'est pas de prédire l'avenir.Mais de tester les angles morts des marchés, de questionner le consensus et de réfléchir à ce que les investisseurs sous-estiment parfois.Au fil de la discussion, nous revenons sur l'ensemble des grandes prévisions évoquées par Saxo pour 2026 :— Des ruptures technologiques majeures, capables de bouleverser les équilibres financiers établis— Des scénarios de stress sur les marchés liés à l'IA, à la cybersécurité ou aux infrastructures numériques— Des chocs macroéconomiques ou géopolitiques peu anticipés par le consensus— Les conséquences possibles pour les actions, les obligations, les cryptomonnaies, l'or et les grandes classes d'actifs— Et surtout, ce que ces hypothèses extrêmes disent de notre manière d'investir aujourd'huiUn épisode pour prendre du recul, élargir le champ des possibles et réfléchir à la robustesse de ses choix d'investissement face à l'imprévu.

Hatem Dhiab says Nvidia's (NVDA) $20 billion acquisition of Groq shows "the new playbook" in Big Tech. He explains that the company adding arms to its AI reach through mergers and acquisitions is just the tip of the iceberg. Hatem compares Nvidia to Alphabet (GOOGL) as the Mag 7 leader expands into the software industry. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Segob publica lista oficial de víctimas del accidente del Tren Interoceánico  Trabajadores de la UAEMorelos siguen sin aguinaldo  Nvidia invierte 5 mil millones de dólares en Intel  Más información en nuestro podcast

In der heutigen Folge sprechen die Finanzjournalisten Nando Sommerfeldt und Holger Zschäpitz über das Abrauschen der Rohstoffe, Nachlässe von Novo Nordisk und den großen Ausblick aufs Börsenjahr 2026. Außerdem geht es um Newmont, AngloGold, Barrick Mining, Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper, Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF (WKN: A41ALU), Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Palantir, Crowdstrike, Zalando, Scout24, Rheinmetall, Symrise, SAP, Adidas, Telekom, Siemens Healthineers, Beiersdorf, Amundi MSCI Greece (WKN: LYX0BF). Die aktuelle "Alles auf Aktien"-Umfrage findet Ihr unter: https://www.umfrageonline.com/c/mh9uebwm Wir freuen uns an Feedback über aaa@welt.de. Noch mehr "Alles auf Aktien" findet Ihr bei WELTplus und Apple Podcasts – inklusive aller Artikel der Hosts und AAA-Newsletter.[ Hier bei WELT.](https://www.welt.de/podcasts/alles-auf-aktien/plus247399208/Boersen-Podcast-AAA-Bonus-Folgen-Jede-Woche-noch-mehr-Antworten-auf-Eure-Boersen-Fragen.html.) [Hier] (https://open.spotify.com/playlist/6zxjyJpTMunyYCY6F7vHK1?si=8f6cTnkEQnmSrlMU8Vo6uQ) findest Du die Samstagsfolgen Klassiker-Playlist auf Spotify! Disclaimer: Die im Podcast besprochenen Aktien und Fonds stellen keine spezifischen Kauf- oder Anlage-Empfehlungen dar. Die Moderatoren und der Verlag haften nicht für etwaige Verluste, die aufgrund der Umsetzung der Gedanken oder Ideen entstehen. Hörtipps: Für alle, die noch mehr wissen wollen: Holger Zschäpitz können Sie jede Woche im Finanz- und Wirtschaftspodcast "Deffner&Zschäpitz" hören. +++ Werbung +++ Du möchtest mehr über unsere Werbepartner erfahren? [**Hier findest du alle Infos & Rabatte!**](https://linktr.ee/alles_auf_aktien) Impressum: https://www.welt.de/services/article7893735/Impressum.html Datenschutz: https://www.welt.de/services/article157550705/Datenschutzerklaerung-WELT-DIGITAL.html

Jensen Huang is something of an enigma. The NVIDIA CEO doesn't have social media and, until recently, rarely gave interviews. Yet he may be the most important person in AI.Under his leadership, NVIDIA has become a goliath. Somewhere between 80 and 90 per cent of AI tools run on NVIDIA hardware, making it the world's most valuable company. But unlike his contemporaries, Huang has been remarkably quiet about the technology – and the world – he's building.In his new book, The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, NVIDIA, and the World's Most Coveted Microchip, journalist Stephen Witt pulls back the curtain. And what he finds is, at times, shocking: Huang believes there is zero risk in developing superintelligence.So who is Jensen Huang? And should we worry that the most powerful person in AI is racing forward at breakneck speed, blind to the potential consequences?Mentioned:The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, NVIDIA, and the World's Most Coveted Microchip, by Stephen WittHow Jensen Huang's Nvidia Is Powering the A.I. Revolution, by Stephen Witt (The New Yorker)The A.I. Prompt That Could End the World, by Stephen Witt (New York Times)Machines Like Us is produced by Mitchell Stuart. Our theme song is by Chris Kelly. Video editing by Emily Graves. Our executive producer is James Milward. Special thanks to Angela Pacienza and the team at The Globe and Mail.Media sourced from the BBC. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Across the country, data centers that run A.I. programs are being constructed at a record pace. A large percentage of them use chips built by the tech colossus Nvidia. The company has nearly cornered the market on the hardware that runs much of A.I., and has been named the most valuable company in the world, by market capitalization. But Nvidia's is not just a business story; it's a story about the geopolitical and technological competition between the United States and China, about what the future will look like. In April, David Remnick spoke with Stephen Witt, who writes about technology for The New Yorker, about how Nvidia came to dominate the market, and about its co-founder and C.E.O., Jensen Huang.  Witt's book “The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, Nvidia, and the World's Most Coveted Microchip” came out this year.   This segment originally aired on April 4, 2025.The Political Scene draws on the reporting and analysis found in The New Yorker for lively conversations about the big questions in American politics. Join the magazine's writers and editors as they put into context the latest news—about elections, the economy, the White House, the Supreme Court, and much more. New episodes are available three times a week. Tune in to The Political Scene wherever you get your podcasts. Learn about your ad choices: dovetail.prx.org/ad-choices

Nvidia kindaquires Groq I'll tell you what we think the strategy is here. A shot across my bow that CES is next week. Accountants shut down remote testing because of AI. And for all the recent bullishness, an honest look at the immediate limitations of today's robotics. Nvidia Reaches Technology Licensing Deal With Startup Groq (Bloomberg) Why Nvidia Struck a $20 Billion Megadeal with Groq (The Information) Samsung brings Google Photos to the biggest screen in your home (AndroidPolice) Accounting body scraps remote exams to combat cheating (Financial Times) Even the Companies Making Humanoid Robots Think They're Overhyped (WSJ) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A $20 billion AI deal while you were away?

Is the fever breaking in the AI & metals trade? The chip & tech stocks seeing outsized drops, and how Silver reversed course in a major way after hitting records. Plus the next move for the tech trade after a standout year, and the stocks one top analyst is betting on in 2026, but Nvidia isn't one of them. Fast Money Disclaimer  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's been another interesting year in the world of personal finance and macroeconomics. As we look ahead to 2026… well, who really knows what's coming? I'll be sharing my own take—and making a few predictions—in an upcoming episode. What's hard to ignore is just how unusual this moment in history is. We're coming off COVID. We went through a rapid rise in interest rates, and now a pullback. Tariffs are back in the conversation. There are a lot of moving parts, and as usual, the consensus hasn't exactly nailed it. Almost every expert was convinced tariffs would push inflation higher. I expected at least a temporary bump—some transient inflation while markets adjusted. Then the CPI report came out at 2.7%. That's a lot closer to the Fed's 2% target, and nearly half a percentage point lower than expectations. Clearly, something else is going on. At the same time, GDP came in at around 4.3% growth. That's real strength. Inflation is coming down, growth is strong, and while the labor market is still a little murky, there's no question there's underlying momentum in the system. Investors haven't quite felt it yet. It's been a sticky environment. But my sense is that we're getting closer to a shift—more liquidity, more money in the system, and markets that may start moving meaningfully again. Of course, we'll see how it all plays out. For this episode, my producer Phil pulled together some of the highlights from the show in 2025—a look back at the conversations and ideas that stood out in a year when the data kept surprising just about everyone. I hope you enjoy it. And again, happy holidays. Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com.  Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with D Wealth Formula Podcast, coming to you from Montecito, California and, uh, want to wish you, first of all, a happy holidays. Merry Christmas, happy new Year, all that. And, uh, yeah, it’s been, uh, it’s been another, uh, another interesting year in the world of personal finance and macroeconomics is what, what we talk about on the show. And as we look forward to 2026, gosh, who knows what’s gonna happen, right? Uh, well I’ll give you my take in, uh, show coming up where I’m gonna make some predictions. However, you know, it’s just, it, it, it’s just such an unusual time in, in history. Um, as we kind of look at. Coming off of COVID and having those high interest rates and then coming, uh, coming down and then having Trump elected and now the tariffs and well, gosh, who knows? Right? I mean, just for example, you know, almost every expert was pretty much guaranteeing that inflation would go up because of the tariffs. I mean, even if it was transient, which frankly I thought it was gonna be transient, meaning that there was gonna be a bump in inflation. For a period of time until there was a readjustment after tariffs. Well, TPI comes up most recent CPI is actually 2.7. You know, that’s much closer to the fed target of 2%. And, um, 2.7 was, you know, I think, uh, almost a half, half percentage point less than the expected, uh, CPI, uh, report. So that, that’s obviously something else is going on there. And then. GDP numbers came out and we had a four handle. It was like 4.3, I believe, GDP. So we’ve got incredible growth. We’ve got decreasing inflation. The labor market is still, I know, a little unclear, but it seems like there’s a lot of strength in this market. Of course, it’s really sticky investors. We haven’t quite felt that strength yet, but I do think you need to start anticipating. That markets are gonna come back pretty heavy, uh, with increased liquidity, uh, and a lot of money in the system. But we shall see, uh, this show. What we’re gonna do here is, uh, my, uh, producer Phil put this together, but it’s basically some of the highlights of, uh, the show in, in 2025. So hopefully you enjoy it. Uh, and again, happy holidays. Merry Christmas, new Year. And we’ll be back right after these messages. Wealth Formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own. Bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying. You compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your investments get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique, it’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its back. Turbocharge your investments. Visit wealth formula banking.com. Again, that’s wealth formula banking.com. How do you approach the process of identifying stocks that are maybe best suited for consis consistent cash flow? Or do you just pick the stocks that you like and, and create the cash flow? Or are, you know, fundamental metrics that maybe you prioritize? Yeah, the, the, the first thing to determine. I think real estate investors understand this is if I were to invest in real estate, I’m gonna determine whether I’m gonna be a flipper, or I’m gonna try and buy low forced depreciation, sell high. Or if I’m gonna be a cashflow investor where I might invest in syndication, or I am, I’m gonna have tenants in property management. And the same is true with stocks. Most people start off by thinking about price rather than cash flow. They think about buy low, sell high, like a house slipper, and that’s, that’s less tenable in stocks because in real estate, if I buy low and sell high, I can do things to force appreciation. I can renovate, I can get new management, I can put in new appliances. I, there’s things I can do to force appreciation. But once a person buys a stock, there’s absolutely nothing you can do to make the stock price go up. But if you take a a, if you think of it like a real estate investor. You think about it like owning a business where the priority, as you mentioned these metrics, the priority is, Hey, what kind of cashflow will this produce be in terms of dividends and in my case, option premiums. And so some of the key metrics is, you know, if I, I’m basically buying a financial statement, same as real estate. You know, I, I, I, it is just a little different numbers in real estate. I wanna know what the net operating income is. In stocks, I might wanna know what the EBITDA is ’cause they’re essentially looking at the same types of things in real estate. I wanna know what the cap rate is in stocks. I wanna know what the PE ratio is, which is just the same number inverted. They just put the price on the top instead of the bottom. To me, I don’t see a difference between real estate and stocks, uh, in that they’re both a business or they charge someone for a good or a service. And there’s either cashflow there at the end of it or not. If people take a cash flow approach, they can begin to build on their passive income. And that contributes to that blueprint we mentioned earlier to get ’em outta the route race. So if you take a Warren Buffet approach, the most important number in that business is operational cash flow or earnings. Meaning does what they do, their operation. You know, you walk in there, a nice operation you got going here, you know, trucks are moving and you know, products are being built and shipped and, and nice operation. If they’re earning money, that means that’s the life flood of the business. That means it’s got a good moat. That means it’s pretty protected and that allows them to do two things for me. Number one is a dividend, which is exactly the same thing as a distribution in real estate. Uh, there is no difference, uh, in a syndication. I have a whole bunch of investors I’ve joined with where you have a share of this project and when the earnings come out, they distribute the, the distributions among the share shareholders. Same is true with stocks. They take the earnings, uh, we call it a payout ratio, and they take a, a, a significant amount of that money and they pay it in a dividend, same as a distribution. But what I do that’s a little bit unique buck is, uh, is I also have the options market on my side. Where I can use options to control risk, uh, to get guarantees where I can buy and sell, but even more importantly, I can offer, uh, and get paid for making promises to people. This is very much a Warren Buffet deal where it, it brings a significant increase to my monthly cash flow beyond the dividend, up to three, two and three times. Uh, the amount of money, two to 300% more cash flow. By being involved in the options market and that’s, that’s a nice secret sauce. The yield max Tesla option income, ETF, which is TSLY. And basically what it does is. Is it just does a series of longs and shorts and, and then generates what looks like to be kind of a, a ridiculous amount of, uh, dividend, uh, per, per month. So what are we missing here? What, what’s, well, you’re, you’re basically hiring those guys to mow your grass. It’s just like any other mutual fund or any other. They’re doing something you could absolutely do by yourself and not pay them a fee. There’s two cultures. There’s the advice culture and there’s the education culture and the advice culture. People say, look, I don’t wanna learn anything. Just gimme the advice. Well, you’ll pay for that in fees. And the problem with doing that is if you really listen to Warren Buffett, which 1% is enormous. Because in the wealth blueprint that we do for people, we use compounding. We use the compounding calculator to see what we’re gonna need. You drop that 1%, you give up 1% of your compounding powers as an investor over your life, it, it wouldn’t seem like 1%, but Buffet knows the truth. It’s enormous. So yeah, absolutely there are ETFs and there are funds that will do exactly what I do or what I teach people to do, but we have some advantages in doing it yourself because risk is about control. I trust myself more than I trust those guys any day of the week. And like I say, I’m doing this by month, so yeah. But it’s legit. How do you even make predictions? And second of all, I mean presumably you still have some forecasts over the next, uh, 12 to 24 months, and maybe you could tell us a little bit about that. Our methodology lends itself to times of uncertainty like this, and that’s the benefit of really relying on the leading indicators that we have. Now. We do have to take a little bit of a different approach. We have to look at data in a lot higher frequency today. You know, a lot of the data you get from government sources or quarterly data, monthly data, but we’re having to track weekly trends with the ever-changing environment that we find ourselves in. So we’re not surprised by the time any monthly or quarterly data comes out. The level of uncertainty that we’re dealing with is certainly unprecedented. I share an index each day, um, and we are three times more uncertain today than we were at the height of the pandemic. You know, put that in perspective, right? Yeah. So we do have to adjust, um. The, the way that we’re looking at data with higher frequencies, we also have to rerun a lot of these correlation analysis. Every single time we get a new data point to see are these lead times becoming more condensed? Do we have to make adjustments in our models as a result to maybe data reacting quicker than it might have in the past? So those are some of the ways that we’re, we’re continuing to evolve in these interesting times we live in. This relates to our forecast. Our team expected some weakness in the first part of this year, and, and we knew that coming in with the, with the tariffs that were proposed during President Trump’s campaign, we did have a weak first quarter GDP number forecast. Our team was 0.1% off of nailing that first quarter GDP number, so they were right on the money there. Uh, we were very impressed with that, but we do expect a sluggish first half of the year. We call it the recovery phase of the cycle. What we mean by that is our growth rates are still building momentum, but are still negative year over year. You know, ITR. Really known for its emphasis on leading indicators. So which of the leading indicators you guys rely on the most when and, and I guess which are flashing red or green right now? I’ll give you one of each. Uh, yeah. The one we’re in right now, we look at the purchasing managers, index isms, purchasing managers index. Now we look at at on a one 12 basis. What I mean by that is we compare the most recent month, the same month one year ago. The reason we look at it on that basis is it gives us 12 month lead time into the future when you correlate it to the economy. That index was recently rising until we got the most recent month of data, and then it dropped back down. So that is giving us the mixed signal of, hey, we need to be a little bit more concerned about the prospect for growth moving forward. Now the opposite is true when we look at an indicator called capacity utilization. What Capacity utilization measures, it’s about an eight month lead time to the economy. So still a nice view into the future, but what it measures is output over capacity, and that actually continues to improve meaning. And again, really all that means on a simple level is we’re utilizing more of our existing capacity, so we’re getting busier. If we look at the consumer side of inflation that the Fed’s more concerned about in terms of setting policy, we have inflation essentially flat this year from where we are today. Now, if you look at the CPI, it’s at 2.8%. Our projection for the end of the year is 2.8%. We don’t see inflation coming down much at all. As a result of that, that’s why you’re seeing Chairman Powell back off being able to cut rates and is holding these rates steady because he sees these higher inflation risks as well. And so from our perspective, it’s very unlikely you see any meaningful interest rate decline this year. Yeah. Now again, the second quarter, GDP number can have an impact on that. We do see a very weak second quarter chairman Powell alluded just a couple of days ago to some slack in the labor market. Maybe you can get a quarter point if we have a really weak second quarter, quarter point cut, but it just seems very unlikely given how persistent inflation has been. And so we tell all of our clients, prepare for interest rates to be relatively flat this year, and prepare for interest rates to rise through the balance of the second half of the decade. It’s not just tariffs, it’s employment costs, it’s electricity costs, it’s material costs. There’s a lot more driving higher inflation than just tariffs. What macroeconomic trends are you watching right now with regards to how they’re shaping the markets today? I think there’s really three things right over the long run. They’re gonna debase the currency, that’s gonna be a persistent tailwind for all liquid, uh, assets, including stocks. Bitcoin gold and bonds. And then I think that you also are going to have a, uh, very interesting dynamic around all these tariffs, uh, and kind of the administration’s economic policies. And then the third thing is that there is a whole technology, uh, trend to, uh, pay attention to. Uh, obviously innovation is very deflationary. Uh, we’ve got, you know, things from humanoid robots to rockets to gene editing, to uh, to crypto and everything in between. And so I think those three things really tell the story of where, uh, markets potentially go in the future. When I grew up, um. S and P 500 was the benchmark. There’s a risk-free rate in bonds. I believe that my generation and younger sees Bitcoin as the benchmark. And so, uh, it’s very simple. If you can’t beat it, you gotta buy it. And I think that there’s institutions around the country who are realizing they can’t beat the benchmark and therefore they will end up buying it. And really, to me, that is, uh, maybe the most interesting. Part of the entire conversation is that Bitcoin obviously has risen significantly on a percentage basis in appreciation. Bitcoin has kind of infiltrated every corner of finance, but most importantly is it has transitioned from a high risk, you know, kind of asymmetric type asset to now it’s becoming the hurdle rate uhhuh. And if you’re the hurdle rate, you suck up a lot of capital. Yeah. Because there’s not a lot of people who can beat you. And I think that that is a very powerful position for Bitcoin to be in. And that’s how you infiltrate into, uh, the institutional portfolios. Bitcoin will stop going up. When they stop printing money. I don’t think they’re gonna stop printing money, so I don’t think Bitcoin’s gonna stop going up. That’s kind of one huge component of this. The second thing is that Bitcoin is very unique in that the higher the price goes, the less risky it is deemed by the largest pools of capital. Mm-hmm. And so usually, you know, if NVIDIA’s at a $4 trillion market cap, people like, oh, it might be overvalued there. A lot of debate. Right. Bitcoin if it was at a $4 trillion market cap would be way less risky than it when’s at 2 trillion. And so there is a lot of structural advantages, both from the legacy world but also from the Bitcoin market that I think will continue to lead to these large institutional capital pools. Uh, allocating some percentage. And the beauty is right now we have very small adoption in that world. Uh, it’s only gonna get bigger. It’s only gonna get more normalized. And I think that one of the parts people really underestimate when it comes to Bitcoin is how important time passing is. You know, if you think back, uh, there is not anyone under the age of 16 that has lived their life without Bitcoin existing. If you’re keeping large chunks of money in savings account, paying less than 1% or any percent less than inflation, you’re bleeding wealth every single day. It feels safe. It looks safe, right? ’cause the numbers may not be moving nominally but it, but it’s not safe. It’s a bucket with a hole in the bottom and you don’t even notice until it’s almost empty. That’s why the wealthy don’t hoard cash. They own assets. They own assets that inflate with inflation. If you can’t beat ’em, join them. They buy things that grow in value as dollars shrink because they understand the system. They don’t fight it, they ride it. So you’ve said many times that the current monetary system is broken and headed for reckoning. So from your perspective, what are the core flaws in the system right now and how do we get here? Well, probably the largest and most obvious underlying flaw in the monetary system is the fact that the federal government just can’t balance its budget. And so they have to take on debt to cover the deficit that they run and that deficit. Well, you know, over the course of the last 20 years, it’s gone up and down. More recently, it’s gone mostly up and, uh. We just came through a period where, you know, it was reemphasized to everybody. Just what a problem this is. Because as you’ll recall, when Trump was first elected, they were talking about those, the Department of Government Efficiency and cutting expenses and you know, maybe 2 trillion or 1 trillion. Of course, then Elon got frustrated and left and the numbers have come down and you know, Trump and the Freedom Caucus was saying they were gonna try and balance the budget or at least cut expenses. And of course, what we know is that they just passed this big beautiful bill. Which really increases the deficits and they bump the debt, uh, ceiling up by another $5 trillion. So sadly, what do many of us have seen and been saying, which is to say they just can’t stop, kind of continue. Seems to be continuing. And, um, you know, the reason why that, just to close the full circle, the reason why that matters is they, they do this debt, they issue debt to cover these deficits, and then the debt requires interest payments and, you know, there’s not enough money to make the interest payments. And so. They more or less have to print the money, you know, and inflate the money supply to keep the system going. And that’s why it’s so important to hard assets. You know, we need to grow the economy at, you know, 4, 5, 6, 7% a year, which, which we’ve never really done on real terms. Well, I think that is kind of what they’re projecting it might be, but it, it’s gonna be harder than hell to achieve. I mean, it just, where you can’t just snap your fingers and create that growth. Now, don’t get me wrong, if you start to, if you ramp up inflation. If you have 10% inflation, well then the GDP number’s gonna get bigger, fast. And so really the model they’ve used, they call it the R Star model, is that they’ve got to have faster growth. Growth rate has to be higher than interest rates, or else you’re in a debt spiral. And so what’s been happening is, by the way, that’s why Trump wants to take interest rates down so much. You know, he is called for a 300 basis point cut. Imagine right now with inflation running at three plus percent, if they cut rates to one point a half percent or one point a quarter percent, I mean, it would be good for the economy. People would refi their houses. You know, there were all kinds of, you know, growth, right? Huge. But in turn it would be inflationary, very inflationary. That’s the trap. They’re really kind of caught in. It’s a seventies kind of stagflation sort of environment. You know, if they don’t keep rates low, they’re not gonna have any growth. If they want to get growth, they’ve gotta keep rates low. That’s gonna lead to monetary creation, which is gonna lead to inflation. Look how it all resolves is very complicated and none of us know. Yeah, sure. But what I do know with very high certainty, with a lot of confidence is this is going to be an inflationary decade. It’s already been an inflationary decade, and because of the way the math is today is very highly likely to continue to be an inflationary decade until we fix this monetary system. Well, we have less than 3% adoption. Three goes to six fairly easily. You know, human beings underestimate how long change really requires, and then we really underestimate how much change actually occurs. Think the internet like we are moving into a digital planet, right? Robots are not going to use credit cards, man. They’re not gonna use, they don’t need visa. We don’t need middlemen. The cool thing about Bitcoin, unlike the Rolls Royce, is you don’t have to buy the whole Rolls Royce. You can buy a fraction of it. You know, you don’t, maybe you guys partner with each other to do apartment buildings. Well, you’re already doing fractured deals on apartment buildings, so Sure. It’s not really that different. 2%, 3% goes to six. I mean, it does go to six. You have the largest ETF in the history of ETFs, okay? This supersedes the goal. ETF by orders of magnitude. I study markets very, very well, price. Really gets people’s attention. I think price is, uh, 90% of Bitcoin. Like I am truly a supply and demand guy. Oh wow. 21 million. And you guys have lost four. You lost 4 million coins. Oh, how’d you lose the 4 million? You lost the 4 million. I know how you lost it. You mispriced it. Bitcoin has been mispriced every day. Its entire history. Dude. 19 million coins have been issued. The addressable market is 8 billion people. You don’t need ’em all. Yep. You just need a small function of those 8 billion to go, Ooh. 21 million units and and four have been lost. It’s already mispriced. Okay. They’re pricing Bitcoin at one 15 Today, assuming there’s 21 million units, we know there’s not. There’s 17, so the supply shrunk. The market caps at 2 trillion. Hello. The standard deduction for a household is now, uh, what in a low 32,000 range. And it turns out that 60% of the households in the United States cannot take advantage of itemized deductions. That is when they take their mortgage interest, property taxes, charitable deductions, they don’t get that number. And so there’s not as much benefit to home ownership as there used to be in the United States. With our big institutional players, nobody wants their appraised values to be quickly marked down to market, because if your competitors don’t do the same thing and they’re part of the index and benchmark that you compete against, you’re going to underperform. And so we’ve traditionally had a lot. Appraised values for real estate among the institutional players, especially. You don’t get this out of the private market, but you get this from the nare players, the institutional type players, and, um, and everybody’s, uh, uh, fearful of underperforming that index. I would prefer as a private investor just to go ahead, bite the bullet and mark it down. Now take the pain if in fact you’ve seen it go down. Some markets have seen property values go down 30, 35% even in multifamily, but they’ve bottomed out in the transaction market and, and absolutely the, uh, the appraisers are gonna have to bring it down and the owners are gonna have to ease up that pressure and say, yes, I want a realistic appraisal. But, um, but there is that fear of underperforming the index and that’s. What’s holding up the American appraisal firms in 2008, 9, 10, 11, we saw a lot of deep distress. The the smart money was ready for it. Now, there’s a lot of people with dry powder, as we say. Ready to p on the market hoping for some distress from those who cannot refinance now, whose, whose CMBS loan or other money is, is rolling. A couple points there. One is, I think you’re going to see more loan modifications this cycle than last time because they realize it’s temporary and they realize that not all properties are in trouble. And these tend to be the higher leverage properties. The smart private wealth investors tended to use conservative leverage over the last several years knowing we’d hit a cycle and, and they probably are 65% or less. Leverage some of the, um, greener newer investment managers might have gone up to 80% and might have even used variable rate debt when they shouldn’t have. They’re the ones getting nailed. They’re losing all their equity and that property is distressed. So there’s not that much of it out there. But there’s a little bit, and I would certainly pounce on it if you can find it. There are often a lot of sort of hidden costs associated with buying versus renting. Can you talk about trying to weed through some of that? Sure some of the highest costs that we don’t think about when we own, although we do take cut down on risk. And also I think that’s come back to consumption. I, I is the fact that there’s the opportunity cost. So think about having 50%, a hundred percent of your home paid for. This, it’s the opportunity cost. You’ve actually taken capital out of play at higher returns to put it into something that perhaps, yes, you see it as a form of an investment, but it’s also partly consumption. And I think that’s why many people end up paying for their homes when they can, because there’s an old saying, and that is, you can’t go broke if you don’t owe money on it. Right? So if you, it’s hard for the lender to come get your home and you don’t really care, right? You wanna be able to. Have no debt on your home. It doesn’t make the typical financial sense if we argue at it from leverage and returns and maximization of returns. I think most people this high end level are looking at, you know, I, I, I, I have high net worth. I’m looking at both consumption and the investment side of the component. But very often the consumption wins and the investment is I can be safe and I can own this house. Outright in many states too. Your homeowner, the home that you live in, you are actually, if you’ve homesteaded the home, you’re actually protected against lawsuits and other things that are out there. Divorce cases will protect your position in, in terms of a homestead, so you can protect a significant portion of wealth by having a paid for home. What are some of those markets that are really overpriced versus. I guess underpriced right now. So when we look at the top 10 most overpriced markets in America right now, we look at their prices, where they are and compare them to where they should be statistically modeling them. We’re seeing the most overpriced markets are Detroit at 33.5% and then falling, falling, descending. Order of Cleveland, Ohio. New Haven, Connecticut, Akron, Ohio, Worcester, Massachusetts, Las Vegas, Nevada, Hartford, Connecticut. Rochester, New York, Knoxville, Tennessee, Toledo, Ohio. You’ll notice. And these are overpriced. These are overpriced. These, the overpriced mark. That’s so, that’s sort of counterintuitive, isn’t it? Ab absolutely. But yes. Wow. Okay. And then h how about the, uh, underpriced markets? I’m curious on that too. Sure. So when we then go to the opposite end of the spectrum, and usually now with underpriced comes risk and there’s risk in both of these markets, what you wanna do, both overpriced and underpriced, what you wanna be long term in a housing market. Uh, ’cause you want to be really close to that trend and not have these dramatic swings. It’s just like stock price. We don’t like volatility. Housing, it’s, it’s dangerous for performance. The most underpriced markets. We only have four markets in America right now that are trading at a discount relative to their long-term pricing trend. In other words, statistically, where they historically prices say prices should be today only four cities are underperforming. That that’s Austin, Texas at 3.1% below where they should be, or a discount of 3.1%. San Francisco at a discount of 6.5%. Wow. New Orleans, Louisiana at a discount of 8.7 and Honolulu, Hawaii at a discount of 10.3. Notice I’m not saying these markets are inexpensive. They’re just below where they’ve historically been. These are the best buys right now because they’re below their long-term trend. One of our other indices, we call it our price to rent ratio. It’s really a PE ratio for rents versus home ownership. And then so we can look at that. So if you’re in our a hundred markets, we know the average price, right? So it’s gonna be priced, divided by the annual average rent. So it’s gonna be how many dollars in price do you pay for every $1 and annual rent? And that gives us the relative difference between owning and renting. The higher that ratio. The, the more you should on in general be leaning towards renting, the lower that ratio, the more you should be leaning towards owning. And we used to do an old buy versus rent index for 23 cities. We now do it for 100 cities. And this price to rent ratio produces almost the same exact answer. So when we look at the average price to rent ratio in an area and we just compare, are they above or currently are you above the price to rent ratio? Uh, for Los Angeles, California. Are you below it? If you’re above that average for say the last 10 years, you’re gonna be rent friendly. If you’re below it, you’re gonna be bio friendly. I can do this very quickly. Pick a California market you’d like to know about. Why don’t we try Dallas, Texas. Okay. Dallas, Texas. That one’s in the top 100 in terms of population. So Dallas, Texas, uh, their price to rent ratio is at about a, just below a 6% premium. In other words, that trade off between renting and owning is about 6% above where it should be, so it slightly favors renting. I’ll jump to the next index. If we look at actual prices in Dallas, there’s a slight premium. So it’s, it’s, it’s telling me, Hey, that my price to rent ratio’s high, slightly favoring ownership, but it’s probably because prices are a little high and they might change. Uh, Dallas has had a bit of a. Premium right now. So I will now go look at Dallas rents. My gut feeling is they’re gonna be below average and they are. They’re at about a 4.5% discount. So that’s just market dynamics in motion right there. And we can do that for a hundred cities pretty quickly. Mm-hmm. You make a lot of money, but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties, now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Good news. If you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program. M put off by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concepts here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world, and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealth formula banking.com. Welcome back to the show everyone. Hope you enjoyed it and uh, once again. Thanks again for listening. Uh, I truly appreciate your support. I hope, uh, I hope it’s been entertaining for you and that you’ll learn something along the way and, um, you know, always appreciate your feedback. Shoot me an email, bucket wealth formula.com. Let me know if there’s things that you want me to do. Let me know if there’s things you wanna hear more about. Uh, but hopefully it’s gonna be a good year and we’re gonna keep plugging away talking about the, you know, try to get educated myself and pass along information to you on Wealth Formula Podcast. That’s it for me this week on Wealth Formula Podcast. This is Buck Joffrey. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheel Wright and Ken McElroy. Visit well formula roadmap.com.

Sara Eisen, and David Faber began the hour with a look at the precious metals rally - and why it's tied to the debasement trade - before discussing the broader market outlook with Trivariate's Adam Parker. Plus: is it time to go from hardware to software? Hear one veteran tech investor's take on why 2026 will see "mindblowing" advancements in the latter sector - and what it means for stocks... and former DOJ antitrust watchdog Jonathan Kanter's opinion on whether Nvidia's GROQ deal is a new way for companies to avoid scrutiny from regulators. Also in focus: a high stakes meeting today between the President and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - the team discussed the latest and what's at stake with former Council on Foreign Relations head Richard Haass.  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We make our big Linux predictions for 2026, but first, we score how we did for 2025.Sponsored By:Managed Nebula: Meet Managed Nebula from Defined Networking. A decentralized VPN built on the open-source Nebula platform that we love. 1Password Extended Access Management: 1Password Extended Access Management is a device trust solution for companies with Okta, and they ensure that if a device isn't trusted and secure, it can't log into your cloud apps. CrowdHealth: Discover a Better Way to Pay for Healthcare with Crowdfunded Memberships. Join CrowdHealth to get started today for $99 for your first three months using UNPLUGGED.Unraid: A powerful, easy operating system for servers and storage. Maximize your hardware with unmatched flexibility. Support LINUX UnpluggedLinks:

On today's show we are talking about one of the greatest threats to real estate, and it doesn't come from real estate, or even have anything to do with real estate. The word bubble has been making headlines lately with an increasing number of pundits calling the level of investment in AI a bubble. Last week we talked about three styles of investing: fundamentals, momentum and arbitrage. On today's show we are talking about the level to which a bubble has been created, and the discussion is centering around which pin is going to pop the balloon. The emphasis on the pin is misplaced in my view. When you are in a bubble, it feels good. I know. I experienced it in the dot com bubble. My company went public in February of 1999. Much of 1998 was spent in the preparation for the public offering. There were some really good technology companies that lost most of their valuation in the wake of the dot com bubble bursting. Amazon lost 90% of its value. Nvidia lost 85% of its value. Intel lost 80% of its value and Microsoft lost 58% of its value. 1/3 of the value of the S&P 500 is based on just 7 technology companies. If the market wakes up one day and realizes that these companies are over-valued, there will certainly be a correction. If the value of those 7 companies were to be similarly cut down as the dot com related stocks were in the year 2000, what would be the impact on the overall stock market? Let's do a simple thought experiment. Let's say that these 7 stocks lose 80% of their value and that none of the other 493 companies in the S&P500 lose any value. If we see that happen, then the S&P500 would effectively lose 27.2% of its value. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

This week, Aaron, Jess and Joey revisit their 2025 prognogs from Episode 296. They talk about the micro social media surge, cynicism, platform madness, informed styling, blockbusters, weaponized compliance, non-apocalyptic runaway AI moments, and our AI overlords. They don't talk about eggprogs. references If I ruled the world ... People: Bob Mackie Says 'People Were Horrified' by Cher's 'Naked' 1974 Met Gala Dress, Even Ripping Her Photo off Magazine Covers Tasting ultra-aged eggnog America's Test Kitchen: How to Make the Absolute Best Eggnog Louis Pasteur Memphis Group Conan O'Brien Needs A Friend Podcast: Conan Blames Jason Bateman For His Dad's Death Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 Split Fiction AAA (video game industry) quod erat demonstrandum The New York Times: Gonzo Fans Have Made ‘Dungeon Crawler Carl' Into a Global Blockbuster Michiko Kakutani's 1995 The New York Times book review of Wicked: Let's Get This Straight: Glinda Was the Bad One? (paywall) Bloomberg: OpenAI's Nvidia, AMD Deals Boost $1 Trillion AI Boom With Circular Deals (paywall) The Food Lab: How to Roast the Best Potatoes of Your Life 

Ben provides an update on Ukraine peace talks and Nvidia's latest acquisition. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg engage with Benedict Evans to explore the current state of AI development, its historical context, and future predictions. They discuss the potential for an AI bubble, the importance of productization for user adoption, and the varying levels of AI integration across different industries. The conversation also touches on the comparison between Nvidia and Sun Microsystems, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the AI landscape.

I am BACK in Atlanta and LIVE on YouTube in the morning so this episode is back to normal. What is in store for 2026 and does the Silver and Gold trade right now paint a bubble picture? THESE SALES END SOON: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TRENDSPIDER HOLIDAY SALE - Get 52 trainings for the next year at 65% off. Become a Trendspider master! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SEEKING ALPHA BUNDLE - Save over $100 and get Premium and Alpha Picks together ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ALPHA PICKS - Want to Beat the S&P? Save $50 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Seeking Alpha Premium - FREE 7 DAY TRIAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SEEKING ALPHA PRO - TRY IT FOR A MONTH ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠EPISODE SUMMARY

The Information's Cory Weinberg talks with TITV Host Akash Pasricha about NVIDIA's stunning $20 billion licensing deal with chip startup Groq and what it means for the inference market. We also talk with Freedom Capital Markets' Paul Meeks about the bull case for AI infrastructure and Waymo's $100 billion valuation, Financial Analysis Columnist Anita Ramaswamy about how Waymo could justify its massive revenue multiple, and we get into the regulatory challenges facing prediction markets with Finance Editor Ken Brown.Articles discussed on this episode: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/long-game-behind-waymos-potential-100-billion-valuationhttps://www.theinformation.com/briefings/nvidia-will-pay-groq-backers-staff-deals-20-billion-valuationhttps://www.theinformation.com/articles/groqs-ip-matters-nvidia-ai-experts-favorite-books-yearhttps://www.theinformation.com/articles/elon-musks-promises-self-driving-ai-robots-clashed-realityhttps://www.theinformation.com/articles/nvidias-year-end-shocker-says-next-yearTITV airs on YouTube, X and LinkedIn at 10AM PT / 1PM ET. Or check us out wherever you get your podcasts.Subscribe to: - The Information on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theinformation- The Information: https://www.theinformation.com/subscribe_hSign up for the AI Agenda newsletter: https://www.theinformation.com/features/ai-agenda

Once again in 2025, AI was all the news. We are seeing some cracks in the NVIDIA moat but it's early yet. Broadcom VMware moves and DRAM sky-high pricing sort of round out the year for us. Listen to our YE podcast to learn more.

En este episodio de Indie, nos metemos de lleno en lo que muchos prefieren no mirar de frente:la burbuja actual de AI, los múltiplos irreales, las startups con revenue que igual se caen, y por qué esta vez la historia es distinta.Hablamos de empresas públicas y privadas, de márgenes que nunca mejoran, de founders que sí ganaron dinero aunque sus compañías cerraron, y del error de romantizar el fracaso sin autocrítica.En la segunda mitad del episodio aparece una tesis fuerte: la próxima gran ola de oportunidades no es una app, es una nueva capa de distribución dentro de ChatGPT. Un momento temprano, poco hablado y dominado por indie hackers.Un episodio para pensar con calma, lejos del hype y más cerca de cómo se construyen negocios que sobreviven.__Muchas gracias a nuestro Sponsor, Analytics Town por apoyar este episodio!¿Quieres crear un producto basado en inteligencia artificial pero no sabes por dónde empezar?En Analytics Town te ayudamos a diseñar tu nuevo producto y modelo de negocio, desde la estrategia hasta la ejecución del software con módulos de IA.Descubrimos oportunidades para tu empresa y validamos tu idea.Armamos el diseño funcional y el modelo de negocio.Diseñamos y desarrollamos tu producto potenciado con Inteligencia Artificial.Te acompañamos en todo el proceso, desde la idea hasta convertirlo en negocio rentable...Si mencionas que vienes de Indie vs Unicornio, te llevas el primer diagnóstico gratis!

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It has been one full year since we last reviewed the state of quantum computing and named Google our top pick in the sector. In this episode of Chip Stock Investor, we revisit that thesis to see how Google stacks up against pure play competitors like IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. While Google shares gained 60% over the last twelve months, we analyze if the dedicated quantum companies offered better returns or simply more volatility.We break down the latest updates on Google's Willow chip and the Quantum Echoes algorithm which mark a significant step toward real world utility. However, we also provide a reality check on the milestones required for commercial viability, specifically quantum error correction and the development of long lived logical qubits. Investors need to understand that despite hype, we remain in a research and development phase.The financial health of these companies is the primary focus of our analysis. We examine the revenue growth against the operating losses for IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave to determine how much runway they have left. We also discuss the cash positions of these firms, including IonQ's recent fundraising efforts that diluted shareholders but shored up their balance sheet. Additionally, we look ahead to upcoming SPAC mergers from Infleqtion and Xanadu in 2026.Finally, we review the semiconductor supply chain stocks that enable this technology. We discuss how equipment providers like Applied Materials and software leaders like Synopsys and Nvidia play a vital role in building and simulating quantum systems.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!Chapters:00:00 Google Quantum AI Performance Review 01:32 Pure Play Stock Charts: IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and QCI 02:26 Reality Check: Milestones for Commercial Viability 03:52 Financial Analysis: Revenue Growth vs Operating Losses 05:13 Balance Sheets and Cash Runway Concerns 06:17 Upcoming IPOs: Infleqtion and Xanadu 07:18 The Quantum Supply Chain: Applied Materials and Synopsys 08:26 Our Top Quantum Stock Picks for 2026*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal. #semiconductors #chips #investing #stocks #finance #financeeducation #silicon #artificialintelligence #ai #financeeducation #chipstocks #finance #stocks #investing #investor #financeeducation #stockmarket #chipstockinvestor #fablesschipdesign #chipmanufacturing #semiconductormanufacturing #semiconductorstocks Nick and Kasey own shares of Alphabet

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Welcome back to the Ultimate Guide to Partnering® Podcast. AI agents are your next customers. Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://theultimatepartner.com/ebook-subscribe/ Check Out UPX:https://theultimatepartner.com/experience/ https://youtu.be/vEdq8rpBM3I In this data-rich keynote, Jay McBain deconstructs the tectonic shifts reshaping the $5.3 trillion global technology industry, arguing that we are entering a new 20-year cycle where traditional direct sales models are obsolete. McBain explains why 96% of the industry is now surrounded by partners and how successful companies must pivot from “flywheels and theory” to a granular strategy focused on the seven specific partners present in every deal. From the explosion of agentic AI and the $163 billion marketplace revolution to the specific mechanics of multiplier economics, this discussion provides a roadmap for navigating the “decade of the ecosystem” where influence, trust, and integration—not just product—determine winners and losers. Key Takeaways Half of today's Fortune 500 companies will likely vanish in the next 20 years due to the shift toward AI and ecosystem-led models. Every B2B deal now involves an average of seven trusted partners who influence the decision before a vendor even knows a deal exists. Microsoft has outpaced AWS growth for 26 consecutive quarters largely because of a superior partner-led geographic strategy. Marketplaces are projected to grow to $163 billion by 2030, with nearly 60% of deals involving partner funding or private offers. The “Multiplier Effect” is the new ROI, where partners can make up to $8.45 for every dollar of vendor product sold. Future dominance relies on five key pillars: Platform, Service Partnerships, Channel Partnerships, Alliances, and Go-to-Market orchestration. If you're ready to lead through change, elevate your business, and achieve extraordinary outcomes through the power of partnership—this is your community. At Ultimate Partner® we want leaders like you to join us in the Ultimate Partner Experience – where transformation begins. Keywords: Jay McBain, Canalys, partner ecosystem, channel chief, agentic AI, marketplace growth, multiplier economics, B2B sales trends, tech industry forecast, service partnerships, strategic alliances, Microsoft vs AWS, distribution transformation, managed services growth, SaaS platforms, customer journey mapping, 28 moments of truth, future of reselling, technology spending 2025, ecosystem orchestration, partner multipliers. T Transcript: Jay McBain WORKFILE FOR TRANSCRIPT [00:00:00] Vince Menzione: Just up from, did you Puerto Rico last night? Puerto Rico, yes. Puerto Rico. He dodged the hurricane. Um, you all know him. Uh, let him introduce himself for those of you who don’t, but just thrilled to have on the stage, again, somebody who knows more about what’s going on in, in the, and has the pulse on this industry probably than just about anybody I know personally. [00:00:21] Vince Menzione: J Jay McBain. Jay, great to see you my friend. Alright, thank you. We have to come all the way. We live, we live uh, about 20 minutes from each other. We have to come all the way to Reston, Virginia to see each other, right? That’s right. Very good. Well, uh, that’s all over to you, sir. Thank you. [00:00:35] Jay McBain: Alright, well thank you so much. [00:00:36] Jay McBain: I went from 85 degrees yesterday to 45 today, but I was able to dodge that, uh, that hurricane, uh, that we kind of had to fly through the northern edge of, uh, wanna talk today about our industry, about the ultimate partner. I’m gonna try to frame up the ultimate partner as I walk through the data and the latest research that, uh, that we’ve been doing in the market. [00:00:56] Jay McBain: But I wanted to start here ’cause our industry moves in 20 year cycles, and if you look at the Fortune 500 and dial back 20 years from today, 52% of them no longer exist. As we step into the next 20 year AI era, half of the companies that we know and love today are not gonna exist. So we look at this, and by the way, if you’re not in the Fortune 500 and you don’t have deep pockets to buy your way outta problems, 71% of tech companies fail over the course of 10 years. [00:01:30] Jay McBain: Those are statistics from the US government. So I start to look at our industry and you know, you may look at the, you know, mainframe era from the sixties and seventies, mini computers, August the 12th, 1981, that first IBM, PC with Microsoft dos, version one, you know, triggered. A new 20 year era of client server. [00:01:51] Jay McBain: It was the time and I worked at IBM for 17 years, but there was a time where Bill Gates flew into Boca Raton, Florida and met with the IBM team and did that, you know, fancy licensing agreement. But after, you know, 20 years of being the most valuable company in the world and 13 years of antitrust and getting broken up, almost like at and TIBM almost didn’t make payroll. [00:02:14] Jay McBain: 13 years after meeting Bill Gates. Yeah, that’s how quickly things change in these eras. In 1999, a small company outta San Francisco called salesforce.com got its start. About 10 years later, Jeff Bezos asked a question in a boardroom, could we rent out our excess capacity and would other companies buy it? [00:02:35] Jay McBain: Which, you know, most people in the room laughed at ’em at the time. But it created a 20 year cloud era when our friends, our neighbors, our family. Saw Chachi PT for the first time in March of 2023. They saw the deep fakes, they saw the poetry, they saw the music. They came to us as tech people and said, did we just light up Skynet? [00:02:58] Jay McBain: And that consumer trend has triggered this next 20 years. I could walk through the richest people in the world through those trends. I could walk through the most valuable companies. It all aligns. ’cause by the way, Apple’s no longer at the top. Nvidia is at the top, Microsoft. Second, things change really quickly. [00:03:17] Jay McBain: So in that course of time, you start to look at our industry and as people are talking about a six and a half or $7 trillion build out of ai, that’s open AI and Microsoft numbers, that is bigger than our industry that’s taken over 50 years to build. This year, we’re gonna finish the year at $5.3 trillion. [00:03:36] Jay McBain: That’s from the smallest flower shop to the biggest bank. Biggest governments that Caresoft would, uh, serve biggest customer in the world is actually the federal government of the us. But you look at this pie chart and you look at the changes that we’re gonna go through over the next 20 years, there’s about a trillion dollars in hardware. [00:03:54] Jay McBain: There’s about a trillion dollars in software. If you look forward through all of the merging trends, quantum computing, humanoid robots, all the things that are coming that dollar to dollar software to hardware will continue to exist all the way through. We see services making up almost two thirds of this pie. [00:04:13] Jay McBain: Yesterday I was in a telco conference with at and t and Verizon and T-Mobile and some of the biggest wireless players and IT services, which happen to be growing faster than products. At the moment, there is more work to be done wrapping around the deal than the actual products that the customer is buying. [00:04:32] Jay McBain: So in an industry that’s growing at 7%. On top of the world economy that’s grown at 2.2. This is the fastest growing industry, and it will be at least for the next 10 years, if not 2070 0.1% of this entire $5 trillion gets transacted through partners. While what we’re talking to today about the ultimate partner, 96% of this industry is surrounded by partners in one way or another. [00:05:01] Jay McBain: They’re there before the deal. They’re there at the deal. They’re there after the deal. Two thirds of our industry is now subscription consumption based. So every 30 days forever, and a customer for life becomes everything. So if every deal in medium, mid-market, and higher has seven partners, according to McKinsey, who are those seven people trying to get into the deal? [00:05:25] Jay McBain: While there’s millions of companies that have come into tech over the last 10 to 20 years. Digital agencies, accountants, legal firms, everybody’s come in. The 250,000 SaaS companies, a million emerging tech companies, there’s a big fight to be one of those seven trusted people at the table. So millions of companies and tens of millions of people our competing for these slots. [00:05:49] Jay McBain: So one of the pieces of research I’m most proud of, uh, in my analyst career is this. And this took over two years to build. It’s a lot of logos. Not this PowerPoint slide, but the actual data. Thousands of people hours. Because guess what? When you look at partners from the top down, the top 1000 partners, by capability and capacity, not by resale. [00:06:15] Jay McBain: It’s not a ranking of CDW and insight and resale numbers. It is the surrounding. Consulting, design, architecture, implementations, integrations, managed services, all the pieces that’s gonna make the next 20 years run. So when you start to look at this, 98% of these companies are private, so very difficult to get to those numbers and, uh, a ton of research and help from AI and other things to get this. [00:06:41] Jay McBain: But this is it. And if you look at this list, there’s a thousand logos out of the million companies. There’s a thousand logos that drive two thirds of all tech services in the world. $1.07 trillion gets delivered by a thousand companies, but here’s where it gets fun. Those companies in the middle, in blue, the 30 of them deliver more tech services than the next 970. [00:07:08] Jay McBain: Combined the 970 combined in white deliver more tech services. Then the next million combined. So if you think we live in an 80 20 rule or maybe a 99, a 95 5 rule, or a 99 1 rule, we actually live in a 99.9 0.1 parallel principle. These companies spread around the world evenly split across the uh, different regions. [00:07:35] Jay McBain: South Africa, Latin America, they’re all over. They split. They split among types. All of the Venn diagram I just showed from GSIs to VARs to MSPs, to agencies and other types of companies. But this is a really rich list and it’s public. So every company in the world now, if you’re looking at Transactable data, if you’re looking at quantifiable data that you can go put your revenue numbers against, it represents 70 to 80% of every company in this room’s Tam. [00:08:08] Jay McBain: In one piece of research. So what do you do below that? How do you cover a million companies that you can’t afford to put a channel account manager? You can’t afford to write programs directly for well after the top down analysis and all the wallet share and you know exactly where the lowest hanging fruit is for most of your tam. [00:08:28] Jay McBain: The available markets. The obtainable markets. You gotta start from the community level grassroots up. So you need to ask the question for the million companies and the maybe a hundred thousand companies out there, partner companies that are surrounding your customer. These are the seven partners that surround your customer. [00:08:48] Jay McBain: What do they read, where do they go, and who do they follow? Interestingly enough, our industry globally equates to only a thousand watering holes, a thousand companies at the top, a thousand places at the bottom. 35% of this audience we’re talking. Millions of people here love events and there’s 352 of them like this one that they love to go to. [00:09:13] Jay McBain: They love the hallway chats, they love the hotel lobby bar, you know, in a time reminded by the pandemic. They love to be in person. It’s the number one way they’re influenced. So if you don’t have a solid event strategy and you don’t have a community team out giving out socks every week, your competitors might beat you. [00:09:31] Jay McBain: 12% of this audience loves podcasts. It’s the Joe Rogan effect of our industry. And while you know, you may not think the 121 podcasts out there are important, well, you’re missing 12% of your audience. It’s over a million people. If you’re not on a weekly podcast in one of these podcasts in the world, there’s still people that read one of the 106 magazines in the world. [00:09:55] Jay McBain: There are people that love peer groups, associations, they wanna be part of this. There’s 15 different ways people are influenced. And a solid grassroots strategy is how you make this happen. In the last 10 years, we’ve created a number of billionaires. Bottom up. They never had to go talk to la large enterprise. [00:10:15] Jay McBain: They never had to go build out a mid-market strategy. They just went and give away socks and new community marketing. And this has created, I could rip through a bunch of names that became unicorns just in the last couple of years, bottoms up. You go back to your board walking into next year, top down, bottom up. [00:10:34] Jay McBain: You’ve covered a hundred percent of your tam, and now you’ve covered it with names, faces, and places. You haven’t covered it with a flywheel or a theory. And for 44 years, we have gone to our board every fourth quarter with flywheels and theory. Trust me, partners are important. The channel is key to us. [00:10:57] Jay McBain: Well, let’s talk at the point of this granularity, and now we’re getting supported by technology 261 entrepreneurs. Many of them in the room actually here that are driving this ability to succeed with seven partners in every deal to exchange data to be able to exchange telemetry of these prospects to be able to see twice or three times in terms of pipeline of your target addressable market. [00:11:26] Jay McBain: All these ai, um, technologies, agentic technologies are coming into this. It’s all about data. It’s all about quantifiable names, faces, and places. Now none of us should be walking around with flywheels, so let’s flip the flywheels. No. Uh, so we also look at, and I sold PCs for 17 years and that was in the high times of 40% margins for partners. [00:11:55] Jay McBain: But one interesting thing when you study the p and l for broad base of partners around the world, it’s changed pretty significantly in this last 20 year era. What the cloud era did is dropped hardware from what used to be 84% plus the break fix and things that wrap around it of the p and l to now 16% of every partner in the world. [00:12:16] Jay McBain: 84% of their p and l is now software and services. And if you look at profitability, it’s worse. It’s actually 87% is profitability wise. They’ve completely shifted in terms of where they go. Now we look at other parts of our market. I could go through every part of the pie of the slide, but we’re watching each of the companies, and if you can see here, this is what we want to talk about in terms of ultimate partner. [00:12:43] Jay McBain: Microsoft has outgrown AWS for 26 straight quarters. They don’t have a better product. They don’t have a better price, they don’t have better promotion. It’s all place. And I’ll explain why you guess here in the light green line. Exactly. The day that Google went a hundred percent all in partner, every deal, even if a deal didn’t have a partner, one of the 4% of deals that didn’t have a partner, they injected a partner. [00:13:09] Jay McBain: You can see on the left side exactly where they did it. They got to the point of a hundred percent partner driven. Rebuilt their programs, rebuilt their marketplace. Their marketplace is actually larger than Microsoft’s, and they grew faster than Microsoft. A couple of those quarters. It is a partner driven future, and now I have Oracle, which I just walked by as I walked from the hotel. [00:13:31] Jay McBain: Oracle with their RPOs will start to join. Maybe the list of three hyperscalers becomes the list of four in future slides, but that’s a growth slide. Market share is different. AWS early and commanding lead. And it plays out, uh, plays out this way. But we’re at an interesting moment and I stood up six years ago talking about the decade of the ecosystem after we went through a decade of sales starting in 1999 when we all thought we were born to be salespeople. [00:14:02] Jay McBain: We managed territories with our gut. The sales tech stack would have it different, that sales was a science, and we ended the decade 2009, looking at sales very differently in 2009. I remember being at cocktail parties where CMOs would be joking around that 50% of their marketing dollars were wasted. They just didn’t know which 50%. [00:14:23] Jay McBain: And I’ll tell you, that was really funny. In 2009 till every 58-year-old CMO got replaced by a 38-year-old growth hacker who walked in with 15,348 SaaS companies in their MarTech and ad tech stack to solve the problem, every nickel of marketing by 2019 was tracked. Marketo, Eloqua, Pardot, HubSpot, driving this industry. [00:14:50] Jay McBain: Now, we stood up and said the 28 moments that come before a sale are pretty much all partner driven. In the best case scenario, a vendor might see four of the moments. They might come to your website, maybe they read an ebook, maybe they have a salesperson or a demo that comes in. That’s four outta 28 moments. [00:15:10] Jay McBain: The other 24 are done by partners. Yeah, in the worst case scenario and the majority scenario, you don’t see any of the moments. All 28 happen and you lose a deal without knowing there ever was a deal. So this is it. We need to partner in these moments and we need to inject partners into sales and marketing, like no time before, and this was the time to do it. [00:15:33] Jay McBain: And we got some feedback in the Salesforce state of sales report, which doesn’t involve any partnerships or, or. Channel Chiefs or anything else. This is 5,500 of the biggest CROs in the world that obviously use Salesforce. 89% of salespeople today use partners every day. For the 11% who don’t, 58% plan two within a year. [00:15:57] Jay McBain: If you add those two numbers together, that’s magically the 96% number. They recognize that every deal has partners in it. In 2024, last year, half of the salespeople in the world, every industry, every country. Miss their numbers. For the minority who made their numbers, 84 point percent pointed to partners as the reason why they made their numbers. [00:16:21] Jay McBain: It was the cheat code for sales, so that modern salesperson that knows how to orchestrate a deal, orchestrate the 28 moments with the seven partners and get to that final spot is the winning formula. HubSpot’s number in separate research was 84% in marketing. So we’re starting to see partners in here. We don’t have to shout from the mountaintops. [00:16:44] Jay McBain: These communities like ultimate Partner are working and we’re getting this to the highest levels in the board. And I’ll say that, you know, when 20 years from now half of the companies we know and love fail after we’re done writing the book and blaming the CEO for inventing the thing that ended up killing them, blaming the board for fiduciary responsibility and letting it happen. [00:17:06] Jay McBain: What are the other chapters of the book? And I think it’s all in one slide. We are in this platform economy and the. [00:17:31] Jay McBain: So your battery’s fine. Check, check, check, check. Alright, I’ll, I’ll just hold this in case, but the companies that execute on all five of these areas, well. Not only today become the trillion dollar valued companies, but they become the companies of tomorrow. These will be the fastest growing companies at every level. [00:17:50] Jay McBain: Not only running a platform business, but participating in other platforms. So this is how it breaks out, and there are people at very senior levels, at very big companies that have this now posted in the office of the CEO winning on integrations is everything. We just went through a demographic shift this year where 51% of our buyers are born after 1982. [00:18:15] Jay McBain: Millennials are the number one buyer of the $5 trillion. Their number one buying criteria is not service. Support your price, your brand reputation, it’s integrations. The buy a product, 80% is good as the next one if it works better in their environment. 79% of us won’t buy a car unless it has CarPlay or Android Auto. [00:18:34] Jay McBain: This is an integration world. The company with the most integrations win. Second, there are seven partners that surround the customer. Highly trusted partners. We’re talking, coaching the customer’s, kids soccer team, having a cottage together up at the lake. You know, best men, bate of honors at weddings type of relationships. [00:18:57] Jay McBain: You can’t maybe have all seven, but how does Microsoft beat AWS? They might have had two, three, or four of them saying nice things about them instead of the competition. Winning in service partnerships and channel partnerships changes by category. If you’re selling MarTech, only 10% of it today is resold, so you build more on service partnerships. [00:19:18] Jay McBain: If you’re in cybersecurity today, 91.6% of it is resold. Transacted through partners. So you build a lot of channel partnerships, plus the service partnerships, whatever the mix is in your category, you have to have two or three of those seven people. Saying nice things about you at every stage of the customer journey. [00:19:38] Jay McBain: Now move over to alliances. We have already built the platforms at the hyperscale level. We’ve built the platforms within SaaS, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Workday, Marketo, NetSuite, HubSpot. Every buyer has a set of platforms that they buy. We’ve now built them in cybersecurity this year out of 6,500 as high as cyber companies, the top five are starting to separate. [00:20:02] Jay McBain: We built it in distribution, which I’ll show in a minute. We’re building it in Telco. This is a platform economy and alliances win and you have alliances with your competitors ’cause you compete in the morning, but you’re best friends by the afternoon. Winning in other platforms is just as important as driving your own. [00:20:20] Jay McBain: And probably the most important part of this is go to market. That sales, that marketing, the 28 moments, the every 30 days forever become all a partner strategy. So there’s still CEOs out there that believe platform is a UI or UX on a bunch of disparate products and things you’ve acquired. There’s still CFOs out there that Think platform is a pricing model, a bundle model of just getting everything under one, you know, subscription price or consumption price. [00:20:51] Jay McBain: And it’s not, platforms are synonymous with partnerships. This is the way forward and there’s no conversation around ai. That doesn’t involve Nvidia over there, an open AI over here and a hyperscaler over there and a SaaS company over here. The seven layer stack wins every single time, and the companies that get this will be the ones that survive this cycle. [00:21:16] Jay McBain: Now, flipping over to marketplaces. So we had written research that, um, about five years ago that marketplaces were going to grow at 82% compounded. Yeah, probably one of the most accurate predictions we ever made, because it happened, we, we predicted that, uh, we were gonna get up to about $85 billion. Well, now we’ve extended that to 2030, so we’re gonna get up to $163 billion, and the thing that we’re watching is in green. [00:21:46] Jay McBain: If 96% of these deals are partner assisted in some way, how is the economics of partnering going to work? We predicted that 50% of deals by 2027. Would be partner funded in some way. Private offers multi-partner offers distributor sellers of record, and now that extends to 59% by 2030, the most senior leader of the biggest marketplace AWS, just said to us they’re gonna probably make these numbers on their own. [00:22:14] Jay McBain: And he asked what their two competitors are doing. So he’s telling us that we under called this. Now when you look at each of the press releases, and this is the AWS Billion Dollar Club. Every one of the companies on the left have issued a press release that they’re in the billion dollar club. Some of them are in the multi-billions, but I want you to double click on this press release. [00:22:35] Jay McBain: I’m quoted in here somewhere, but as CrowdStrike is building the marketplace at 91% compounded, they’re almost doubling their revenue every single year. They’re growing the partner funding, in this case, distributor funding by 3548%. Almost triple digit growth in marketplace is translating into almost quadruple digit growth in funding. [00:23:01] Jay McBain: And you see that over and over again as, as Splunk hit three, uh, billion dollars. The same. Salesforce hit $2 billion on AWS in Ulti, 18 months. They joined in October 20, 23, and 18 months later, they’re already at $2 billion. But now you’re seeing at Salesforce, which by the way. Grew up to $40 billion in revenue direct, almost not a nickel in resell. [00:23:28] Jay McBain: Made it really difficult for VARs and managed service providers to work with Salesforce because they couldn’t understand how to add services to something they didn’t book the revenue for. While $40 billion companies now seeing 70% of their deals come through partners. So this is just the world that we’re in. [00:23:44] Jay McBain: It doesn’t matter who you are and what industry you’re in, this takes place. But now we’re starting to see for the first time. Partners join the billion dollar club. So you wonder about partnering and all this funding and everything that’s working through Now you’re seeing press releases and companies that are redoing their LinkedIn branding about joining this illustrious club without a product to sell and all the services that wrap around it. [00:24:10] Jay McBain: So the opening session on Microsoft was interesting because there’s been a number of changes that Microsoft has done just in the last 30 days. One is they cut distribution by two thirds going from 180 distributors to 62. They cut out any small partner lower than a thousand dollars, and that doesn’t sound like a lot, but that’s over a hundred thousand partners that get deed tightening the long tail. [00:24:38] Jay McBain: They we’re the first to really put a global point system in place three years ago. They went to the new commerce experience. If you remember, all kinds of changes being led by. The biggest company for the channel. And so when we’re studying marketplaces, we’re not just studying the three hyperscalers, we’re studying what TD Cynic is doing with Stream One Ingram’s doing with Advant Advantage Aerosphere. [00:25:01] Jay McBain: Also, we’re watching what PAX eight, who by the way, is the 365 bestseller for Microsoft in the world. They are the cybersecurity leader for Microsoft in the world and the copilot. Leader in the world for Microsoft and Partner of the Year for Microsoft. So we’re watching what the cloud platforms are doing, watching what the Telco are doing, which is 25 cents out of every dollar, if you remember that pie chart, watching what the biggest resellers are converting themselves into. [00:25:30] Jay McBain: Vince just mentioned, you know, SHI in the changes there watching the managed services market and the leaders there, what they’re doing in terms of how this industry’s moving forward. By the way, managed services at $608 billion this year. Is one and a half times larger than the SaaS industry overall. [00:25:48] Jay McBain: It’s also one and a half times larger than all the hyperscalers combined. Oracle, Alibaba, IBM, all the way down. This is a massive market and it makes up 15 to 20 cents of every dollar the customer spend. We’re watching that industry hit a trillion dollars by the end of the decade, and we’re watching 150 different marketplace development platforms, the distribution of our industry, which today is 70.1% indirect. [00:26:13] Jay McBain: We’re starting to see that number, uh, solidify in terms of marketplaces as well. Watching distributors go from that linear warehouse in a bank to this orchestration model, watching some of the biggest players as the world comes around, platforms, it tightens around the place. So Caresoft, uh, from from here is the sixth biggest distributor in the world. [00:26:40] Jay McBain: Just shows you how big the. You know, biggest client in the world is that they serve. But understand that we’re publishing the distributor 500 list, but it’ll be the same thing. That little group in blue in the middle today, you know, drives almost two thirds of the market. So what happens in all this next stage in terms of where the dollars change hands. [00:27:07] Jay McBain: And the economics of partnering themselves are going through the most radical shift that we’ve seen ever. So back to the nineties, and, and for those of you that have been channel chiefs and running programs, we went to work every day. You know, everything’s on fire. We’re trying to check hundred boxes, trying to make our program 10% better than our competitors. [00:27:30] Jay McBain: Hey, we gotta fix our deal registration program today, and our incentives are outta whack or training programs or. You know, not where they need to be. Our certification, you know, this was the life of, uh, of a channel chief. Everybody thought we were just out drinking in the Caribbean with our best partners, but we were under the weight of this. [00:27:49] Jay McBain: But something interesting has happened is that we turned around and put the customer at the middle of our programs to say that those 28 moments in green before the sale are really, really important. And the seven partners who participate are really important. Understanding. The customer’s gonna buy a seven layer stack. [00:28:09] Jay McBain: They’re gonna buy it With these seven partners, the procurement stage is much different. The growth of marketplaces, the growth of direct in some of these areas, and then long term every 30 days forever in a managed service, implementations, integrations, how you upsell, cross-sell, enrich a deal changes. So how would you build a program that’s wrapped around the customer instead of the vendor? [00:28:35] Jay McBain: And we’re starting to hear our partners shout back to us. These are global surveys, big numbers, but over half of our partners, regardless of type, are selling consulting to their customer. Over half are designing architecting deals. A third of them are trying to be system integrators showing up at those implementation integration moments. [00:28:55] Jay McBain: Two thirds of them are doing managed services, but the shocking one here is 44% of our partners, regardless of type, are coding. They’re building agents and they’re out helping their customer at that level. So this is the modern partner that says, don’t typecast me. You may have thought of me in your program. [00:29:14] Jay McBain: You might have me slotted as a var. Well, I do 3.2 things, and if I don’t get access to those resources, if you don’t walk me to that room, I’m not gonna do them with you. You may have me as a managed service provider that’s only in the morning. By the afternoon I’m coding, and by the next morning I’m implementing and consulting. [00:29:33] Jay McBain: So again, a partner’s not a partner. That Venn diagram is a very loose one now, as every partner on there is doing 3.2 different business models. And again, they’re telling us for 43 years, they said, I want more leads this year it changed. For the first time, I want to be recognized and incentivized as more than just a cash register for you. [00:29:57] Jay McBain: I want you to recognize when I’m consulting, when I’m designing, when you’re winning deals, because of my wonderful services, by the way, we asked the follow up question, well, where should we spend our money with you? And they overwhelmingly say, in the consulting stage, you win and lose deals. Not at moment 28. [00:30:18] Jay McBain: We’re not buying a pack of gum at the gas station. This is a considered purchase. You win deals from moment 12 through 16 and I’m gonna show you a picture of that later, and they say, you better be spending your money there, or you’re not gonna win your fair share or more than your fair share of deals. [00:30:36] Jay McBain: The shocking thing about this is that Microsoft, when they went to the point system, lifted two thirds of all the money, tens of billions of dollars, and put it post-sale, and we were all scratching our heads going. Well, if the partners are asking for it there, and it seems like to beat your biggest competitors, you want to win there. [00:30:54] Jay McBain: Why would you spend the money on renewal? Well, they went to Wall Street and Goldman Sachs and the people who lift trillions of dollars of pension funds and said, if we renew deals at 108%, we become a cash machine for you. And we think that’s more valuable than a company coming out with a new cell phone in September and selling a lot of them by Christmas every year. [00:31:18] Jay McBain: The industry. And by the way, wall Street responded, Microsoft has been more valuable than Apple since. So we talk in this now multiplier language, and these are reports that we write, uh, at AMIA at canals. But talking about the partner opportunity in that customer cycle, the $6 and 40 cents you can make for every dollar of consumption, or the $7 and 5 cents you can make the $8 and 45 cents you can make. [00:31:46] Jay McBain: There’s over 24 companies speaking at this level now, and guess what? It’s not just cloud or software companies. Hardware companies are starting to speak in this language, and on January 25th, Cisco, you know, probably second to Microsoft in terms of trust built with the channel globally is moving to a full point system. [00:32:09] Jay McBain: So these are the changes that happen fast. But your QBR with your partners now less about drinking beers at the hotel lobby bar and talking dollar by dollar where these opportunities are. So if you’re doing 3.2 of these things, let’s build out a, uh, a play where you can make $3 for every dollar that we make. [00:32:28] Jay McBain: And you make that profitably. You make it in sticky, highly retained business, and that’s the model. ’cause if you make $3 for every dollar. We make, you’re gonna win Partner of the year, and if you win partner of the year, that piece of glass that you win on stage, by the time you get back to your table, you’re gonna have three offers to buy your business. [00:32:51] Jay McBain: CDW just bought a w. S’s Partner of the Year. Insight bought Google’s eight time partner of the year. Presidio bought ServiceNow’s, partner of the year over and over and over again. So I’m at Octane, I’m at CrowdStrike, I’m at all these events in Vegas every week. I’m watching these partners of the year. [00:33:05] Jay McBain: And I’m watching as the big resellers. I’m watching as the GSIs and the m and a folks are surrounding their table after, and they’re selling their businesses for SaaS level valuations. Not the one-to-one service valuation. They’re getting multiples because this is the new future of our industry. This is platform economics. [00:33:25] Jay McBain: This is winning and platforms for partners. Now, like Vince, I spent 20 minutes without talking about ai, but we have to talk about ai. So the next 20 years as it plays out is gonna play out in phases. And the first thing you know to get it out of the way. The first two years since that March of 23, has been underwhelming, to say the least. [00:33:47] Jay McBain: It’s been disappointing. All the companies that should have won the biggest in AI have been the most disappointing. It’s underperformed the s and p by a considerable amount in terms of where we are. And it goes back to this. We always overestimate the first two years, but we underestimate the first 10. [00:34:07] Jay McBain: If you wanna be the point in time person and go look at that 1983 PC or the 1995 internet or that 2007 iPhone or that whatever point in time you wanna look at, or if you want to talk about hallucinations or where chat chip ET version five is version, as opposed to where it’s going to be as it improves every six months here on in. [00:34:30] Jay McBain: But the fact of the matter is, it’s been a consumer trend. Nvidia got to be the most valuable company in the world. OpenAI was the first company to 2 billion users, uh, in that amount of speed. It’s the fastest growing product ever in history, and it’s been a consumer win this trillions of dollars to get it thrown around in the press releases. [00:34:49] Jay McBain: They’re going out every day, you know, open ai, signing up somebody new or Nvidia, investing in somebody new almost every single day in hundreds of billions of dollars. It is all happening really on the consumer side. So we got a little bit worried and said, is that 96% of surround gonna work in ag agentic ai? [00:35:10] Jay McBain: So we went and asked, and the good news is 88% of end customers are using partners to work through their ag agentic strategy. Even though they’re moving slow, they’re actually using partners. But what’s interesting from a partner perspective, and this is new research that out till 2030. This is the number one services opportunity in the entire tech or telco industry. [00:35:34] Jay McBain: 35.3% compounded growth ending at $267 billion in services. Companies are rebuilding themselves, building out practices, and getting on this train and figuring out which vendors they should hook their caboose to as those trains leave the station. But it kind of plays out like this. So in the next three to five years, we’re in this generative, moving into agentic phase. [00:36:01] Jay McBain: Every partner thinks internally first, the sales and marketing. They’re thinking about their invoicing and billing. They’re thinking about their service tickets. They’re thinking about creating a business that’s 10% better than their competitors, taking that knowledge into their customers and drive in business. [00:36:17] Jay McBain: But we understand that ag agentic AI, as it’s going to play out is not a product. A couple of years ago, we thought maybe a copilot or an agent force or something was going to be the product that everybody needed to buy, and it’s not a product, it’s gonna show up as a feature. So you go back in the history of feature ads and it’s gonna show up in software. [00:36:38] Jay McBain: So if you’re calling in SMB, maybe you’re calling on a restaurant. The restaurant isn’t gonna call OpenAI or call Microsoft or call Nvidia directly. They’re running their restaurant. And they may have chosen a platform like Toast Square, Clover, whatever iPads people are running around with, runs on a platform that does everything in their business, does staffing, does food ordering, works with Uber Eats, does everything end to end? [00:37:08] Jay McBain: They’re gonna wait to one of those platforms, dries out agent AI for them, and can run the restaurant more effectively, less human capital and more consistently, but they wait for the SaaS platform as you get larger. A hundred, 150 people. You have vice presidents. Each of those vice presidents already have a SaaS stack. [00:37:28] Jay McBain: I talked about Salesforce, ServiceNow, Workday, et cetera. They’ve already built that seven layer model and in some cases it’s 70 layers. But the fact is, is they’re gonna wait for those SaaS layers to deliver ag agentic to them. So this is how it’s gonna play out for the next three and a half, three to five years. [00:37:45] Jay McBain: And partners are realizing that many of them were slow to pick up SaaS ’cause they didn’t resell it. Well now to win in this next three to half, three to five years, you’re gonna have to play in this environment. When you start looking out from here, the next generation, you know, kind of five through 15 years gets interesting in more of a physical sense. [00:38:06] Jay McBain: Where I was yesterday talking about every IOT device that now is internet access, starts to get access to large language models. Every little sensor, every camera, everything that’s out there starts to get smart. But there’s a point. The first trillionaire, I believe, will be created here. Elon’s already halfway there. [00:38:24] Jay McBain: Um, but when Bill Gates thought there was gonna be a PC in every home, and IBM thought they were gonna sell 10,000 to hobbyists, that created the richest person in the world for 20 years, there will be a humanoid in every home. There’s gonna be a point in time that you’re out having drinks with your friends, and somebody’s gonna say, the early adopter of your friends is gonna say. [00:38:46] Jay McBain: I haven’t done the dishes in six weeks. I haven’t done the laundry. I haven’t made my bed. I haven’t mowed the lawn. When they say that, you’re gonna say, well, how? And they’re gonna say, well, this year I didn’t buy a new car, but I went to the car dealership and I bought this. So we’re very close to the dexterity needed. [00:39:05] Jay McBain: We’ve got the large language models. Now. The chat, GPT version 10 by then is going to make an insane, and every house is gonna have one of the. [00:39:17] Jay McBain: This is the promise of ai. It’s not humanoid robots, it’s not agents. It’s this. 99% of the world’s business data has not been trained or tuned into models yet. Again, this is the slow moving business. If you want to think about the 99% of business data, every flight we’ve all taken in this room sits on a saber system that was put in place in 1964. [00:39:43] Jay McBain: Every banking transaction, we’ve all made, every withdrawal, every deposit sits on an IBM mainframe put in place in the sixties or seventies. 83% of this data sits in cold storage at the edge. It’s not ready to be moved. It’s not cleansed, it’s not, um, indexed. It’s not in any format or sitting on any infrastructure that a large language model will be able to gobble up the data. [00:40:10] Jay McBain: None of the workflows, none of the programming on top of that data is yet ready. So this is your 10 to 20 year arc of this era that chat bot today when they cancel your flight is cute. It’s empathetic, it feels bad for you, or at least it seems to, but it can’t do anything. It can’t book you the Marriott and get you an Uber and then a 5:00 AM flight the next morning. [00:40:34] Jay McBain: It can’t do any of that. But more importantly, it doesn’t know who you are. I’ve got 53 years of flights under my belt and they, I’m the person that get me within six hours of my kids and get me a one-way Hertz rental. You know, if there’s bad weather in Miami, get me to Tampa, get me a Hertz, I’m driving home, I’m gonna make it home. [00:40:56] Jay McBain: I’m not the 5:00 AM get me a hotel person. They would know that if they picked up the flights that I’ve taken in the past. Each of us are different. When you get access to the business data and you become ag agentic, everything changes. Every industry changes because of this around the customers. When you ask about this 35% growth, working on that data, working in traditional consulting and design and implementation, working in the $7 trillion of infrastructure, storage, compute, networking, that’s gonna be around, this is a massive opportunity. [00:41:30] Jay McBain: Services are gonna continue to outgrow products. Probably for the next five to 10 years because of this, and I’m gonna finish here. So we talked a lot about quantifying names, faces, places, and I think where we failed the most as ultimate partners is underneath the tam, which every one of our CEOs knows to the decimal point underneath the TAM that our board thinks they’re chasing. [00:41:59] Jay McBain: We’ve done a very poor job. Of talking about the available markets and obtainable markets underneath it, we, we’ve shown them theory. We’ve shown them a bunch of, you know, really smart stuff, and PowerPoint slides up the wazoo, but we’ve never quantified it for them. If they wanna win, if they want to get access, if they want to double their pipeline, triple their pipeline, if they wanna start winning more deals, if they wanna win deals that are three times larger, they close two times faster. [00:42:31] Jay McBain: And they renew 15% larger. They have to get into the available and obtainable markets. So just in the last couple weeks I spoke at Cribble, I spoke at Octane, I spoke at CrowdStrike Falcon. All three of those companies at the CEO level, main stage use those exact three numbers, three x, two x, 15%. That’s the language of platforms, and they’re investing millions and millions and millions of dollars on teams. [00:42:59] Jay McBain: To go build out the Sam Andal in name spaces and places. So you’ve heard me talk about these 28 moments a lot. They’re the ones that you spend when you buy a car. Some people spend one moment and they drive to the Cadillac dealership. ’cause Larry’s been, you know, taking care of the family for 50 years. [00:43:18] Jay McBain: Some people spend 50 moments like I do, watching every YouTube video and every, you know, thing on the internet. I clear the internet cover to cover. But the fact is, is every deal averages around these 28 moments. Your customer, there’s 13 members of the buying committee today. There’s seven partners and they’re buying seven things. [00:43:37] Jay McBain: There’s 27 things orchestrating inside these 28 moments. And where and how they all take place is a story of partnering. So a couple of years ago, canals. Latin for channel was acquired by amia, which is a part of Informa Tech Target, which is majority owned by Informa. All that being said, there’s hundreds of magazines that we have. [00:44:00] Jay McBain: There’s hundreds of events that we run. If somebody’s buying cybersecurity, they probably went to Black Hat or they probably went to GI Tech. One of these events we run, or one of the magazines. So we pick up these signals, these buyer intent signals as a company. Why did they wanna, um, buy a, uh, a Canals, which was a, you know, a small analyst firm around channels? [00:44:22] Jay McBain: They understood this as well. The 28 moments look a lot like this when marketers and salespeople are busy filling in the spots of every deal. And by the way, this is a real deal. AstraZeneca came in to spend millions of dollars on ASAP transformation, and you can start to see as the customer got smart. [00:44:45] Jay McBain: The eBooks, they read the podcasts, they listened to the events they went to. You start to see how this played out over the long term. But the thing we’ve never had in our industry is the light blue boxes. This deal was won and lost in December. In this particular case, NTT software won and Yash came in and sold the customer five projects. [00:45:07] Jay McBain: The millions of dollars that were going to be spent were solved here. The design and architecture work was all done here. A couple of ISVs You see in light blue came in right at the end, deal was closed in April. You see the six month cycle. But what if you could fill in every one of the 28 boxes in every single customer prospect that your sales and marketing team have? [00:45:30] Jay McBain: But here’s the brilliance of this. Those light blue boxes didn’t win the deals there. They won the deals months before that. So when NTT and Software one walked into this deal. They probably won the deal back in October and they had to go through the redlining. They had to go through the contracting, they had to go through all the stuff and the Gantt chart to get started. [00:45:54] Jay McBain: But while your CMO is getting all excited about somebody reading an ebook and triggering an MQL that the sales team doesn’t want, ’cause it’s not qualified, it’s not sales qualified, you walk in and say, no, no. This is a multimillion deal, dollar deal. It’s AstraZeneca. I know the five partners that are coming in in December to solidify the seven layers, and you’re walking in at the same time as the CMOs bragging about an ebook. [00:46:21] Jay McBain: This changes everything. If we could get to this level of data about every dollar of our tam, we not only outgrow our competitors, we become the platforms of the next generation. Partnering and ultimate partnering is all here. And this is what we’re doing in this room. This is what we’re doing over these couple of days, and this is what, uh, the mission that Vince is leading. [00:46:43] Jay McBain: Thank you so much. [00:46:47] Vince Menzione: Woo. Day in the house. Good to see you my friend. Good to see you. Oh, we’re gonna spend a couple minutes. Um, I’m put you in the second seat. We’re gonna put, we’re gonna make it sit fireside for a minute. Uh, that was intense. It was pretty incredible actually, Jay. And so I’m, I think I wanna open it up ’cause we only have a few minutes just to, any questions? [00:47:06] Vince Menzione: I’m sure people are just digesting. We already have one up here. See, [00:47:09] Question: Jay knows I’m [00:47:10] Vince Menzione: a question. I love it. We, I don’t think we have any I can grab a mic, a roving mic. I could be a roving mic person. Hold on. We can do this. This is not on. [00:47:25] Vince Menzione: Test, test. Yes it is. Yeah. [00:47:26] Question: Theresa Carriol dared me to ask a question and I say, you don’t have to dare me. You know, I’m going to Anyway. Um, so Jay, of the point of view that with all of the new AI players that strategic alliances is again having a moment, and I was curious your point of view on what you’re seeing around this emergence and trend of strategic alliances and strategic alliance management. [00:47:52] Question: As compared to channel management. And what are you seeing in terms of large vendors like AWS investing in that strategic alliance role versus that channel role training, enablement, measurement, all that good stuff? [00:48:06] Jay McBain: Yeah, it’s, it’s a great question. So when I told the story about toast at the restaurant or Square or Clover, they’re not call, they’re not gonna call open AI or Nvidia themselves either. [00:48:17] Jay McBain: When you look out at the 250,000 ISVs. That make up this AI stack, there is the layers that happen there. So the Alliance with AWS, the alliance they have with Microsoft or Google is going to be how they generate agent AI in their platforms. So when I talk about a seven layer stack, the average deal being seven layers, AI is gonna drive this to nine, and then 11, then probably 13. [00:48:44] Jay McBain: So in terms of how alliances work, I had it up there as one of the five core strategies, and I think it’s pretty even. You can have the best alliances in the world, but if the seven partners trusted by the customer don’t know what that alliance is and the benefits to the customer and never mention it, it’s all for Naugh. [00:49:00] Jay McBain: If you’re go-to market, you’re co-selling, your co-marketing strategies are not built around that alliance. It’s all for naught. If the integration and the co-innovation, the co-development, the all the co-creation work that’s done inside these alliances isn’t translated to customer outcomes, it’s all for naugh. [00:49:17] Jay McBain: These are all five parallel swim lanes. All five are absolutely critically needed. And I think they’re all five pretty equally weighted in terms of needing each other. Yes. To be successful in the era of platforms. Yeah. [00:49:32] Vince Menzione: And the problem is they’re all stove pipe today. If, if at all. Yeah. Maintained, right. [00:49:36] Vince Menzione: Alliances is an example. Channels and other example. They don’t talk to one another. Judge any, we’ve got a mic up here if anybody else has. Yep. We have some questions here, Jacqueline. [00:49:51] Question: So when we’re developing our channel programs, any advice on, you know, what’s the shift that we should make six months from now, a year from now? The historical has been bronze, silver, gold, right? And you’ve got your deal registration, but what’s the future look like? [00:50:05] Jay McBain: Yeah, so I mean, the programs are, are changing to, to the point where the customer should be in the middle and realizing the seven partners you need to win the deal. [00:50:15] Jay McBain: And depending on what category of product you’re in, security, how much you rely on resell, 91.6%. You know, the channel partners are gonna be critical where the customer spends the money. And if you’re adding friction to that process, you’re adding friction in terms of your growth. So you know, if you’re in cybersecurity, you have to have a pretty wide open reseller model. [00:50:39] Jay McBain: You have to have a wide open distribution model, and you have to make sure you’re there at that point of sale. While at the same time, considering the other six partners at moment 12 who are in either saying nice things about you or not, the customer might even be starting with you. ’cause there is actually one thing that I didn’t mention when I showed the 28 moments filled in. [00:51:00] Jay McBain: You’ll notice that the customer went to AWS twice direct. AWS lost the deal. Microsoft won the deal software. One is Microsoft’s biggest reseller in the world. They just acquired crayon. NTT who, who loves both had their Microsoft team go in. [00:51:18] Question: Mm. [00:51:19] Jay McBain: So I think that they went to AWS thinking it was A-W-S-S-A-P, you know, kind of starting this seven layer stack. [00:51:25] Jay McBain: I think they finished those, you know, critical moments in the middle looking at it. And then they went back to AWS kind of going probably WWTF. Yeah. What we thought was happening isn’t actually the outcome that was painted by our most trusted people. So, you know, to answer your question, listen to your partners. [00:51:43] Jay McBain: They want to be recognized for the other things they’re doing. You can’t be spending a hundred percent of the dollars at the point of sale. You gotta have a point of system that recognizes the point of sale, maybe even gold, silver, bronze, but recognizing that you’re paying for these other moments as well. [00:51:57] Jay McBain: Paying for alliances, paying for integrations and everything else, uh, in the cyber stack. And, um, you know, recognizing also the top 1000. So if I took your tam. And I overlaid those thousand logos. I would be walking into 2026 the best I could of showing my company logo by logo, where 80% of our TAM sits as wallet share, not by revenue. [00:52:25] Jay McBain: Remember, a million dollar partner is not a million dollar partner. One of them sells 1.2 million in our category. We should buy them a baseball cap and have ’em sit in the front row of our event. One of them sells $10 million and only sells our stuff if the customer asks. So my company should be looking at that $9 million opportunity and making sure my programs are writing the checks and my coverage. [00:52:48] Jay McBain: My capacity and capability planning is getting obsessed over that $9 million. My farmers can go over there, my hunters can go over here, and I should be submitting a list of a thousand sorted in descending order of opportunity. Of where my company can write program dollars into. [00:53:07] Vince Menzione: Great answer. All right. I, I do wanna be cognizant of time and the, all the other sessions we have. [00:53:14] Vince Menzione: So we’ll just take one other question if there are any here and if not, we’ll let I know. Jay, you’re gonna be mingling around for a little while before your flight. I’m [00:53:21] Jay McBain: here the whole day. [00:53:22] Vince Menzione: You, you’re the whole day. I see that Jay’s here the whole day. So if you have any other questions and, and, uh, sharing the deck is that. [00:53:29] Vince Menzione: Yep. Alright. We have permission to share the deck with the each of you as well. [00:53:34] Jay McBain: Alright, well thank you very much everyone. Jay. Great to have you.

A lot changed in the world of Cloud and AI this year. And then it changed some more, and some more, and so more. The only constant was change. SHOW: 988SHOW TRANSCRIPT: The Cloudcast #988 TranscriptSHOW VIDEO: https://youtube.com/@TheCloudcastNET CLOUD NEWS OF THE WEEK: http://bit.ly/cloudcast-cnotwCHECK OUT OUR NEW PODCAST: "CLOUDCAST BASICS"SHOW NOTESIT WAS AN INTERESTING YEAR IN CLOUD AND AI TECHNOLOGYAI has become a mainstream technology, political and social talking pointAI went through 7yrs of news cycles in 1 yrDeepSeek - Maybe NVIDIA chips aren't needed?NVIDIA acquihired Grok and their technologyMaybe AWS' lead in the cloud is now in questionGoogle got their act together with GenAI, after inventing the technology in 2017Microsoft and OpenAI sort of broke up, or at least they are seeing other peopleOpenAI forecasts 100x their current revenue in future computing needsThe US Gov't either bailed out, or socialized IntelBitcoin - 94k, up to 125k, down to 84kFEEDBACK?Email: show at the cloudcast dot netTwitter/X: @cloudcastpodBlueSky: @cloudcastpod.bsky.socialInstagram: @cloudcastpodTikTok: @cloudcastpod

This is a recap of the top 10 posts on Hacker News on December 27, 2025. This podcast was generated by wondercraft.ai (00:30): Floor796Original post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46401612&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(01:55): Nvidia's $20B antitrust loopholeOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46403559&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(03:21): Apple releases open-source model that instantly turns 2D photos into 3D viewsOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46401539&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(04:47): Show HN: Ez FFmpeg – Video editing in plain EnglishOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46400251&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(06:13): How we lost communication to entertainmentOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46404848&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(07:39): Gpg.failOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46403200&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(09:05): Publishing your work increases your luckOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46397991&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(10:31): QNX Self-Hosted Developer DesktopOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46398201&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(11:56): Janet Jackson had the power to crash laptop computers (2022)Original post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46403291&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(13:22): Replacing JavaScript with Just HTMLOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46407337&utm_source=wondercraft_aiThis is a third-party project, independent from HN and YC. Text and audio generated using AI, by wondercraft.ai. Create your own studio quality podcast with text as the only input in seconds at app.wondercraft.ai. Issues or feedback? We'd love to hear from you: team@wondercraft.ai

2025年 = 特朗普年? 關稅、法案、行政命令主宰市場風向! AI熱潮由亢奮到擔心重演科網股爆破，利率將是關鍵? 同時是最多破產和最多IPO的一年! 矛盾只因深愛著?

Get your first month of FitXR free using code "INSIDEGAMEF1" here - https://bit.ly/InsideGamesFitXRCheck out our Patreon for a daily Lawrence Select™ Meme: https://www.patreon.com/insidegamesYTJoin the Inside Games notification Discord server for alerts when we publish new videos: http://discord.gg/ArvphbMPFJHosted by:Lawrence: http://twitch.tv/sirlarr | Bruce: http://twitch.tv/brucegreene Edited by: Shooklyn: https://linktr.ee/ShooklynSources --https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce-now/faq/https://www.windowscentral.com/gaming/pc-gaming/nvidia-geforce-now-caps-monthly-playtime-to-keep-pricing-the-same-for-the-foreseeable-future-even-ultimate-members-will-be-limited-in-how-much-they-can-play-each-monthhttps://overclock3d.net/news/gpu-displays/nvidia-plans-heavy-cuts-to-gpu-supply-in-early-2026/https://www.tomshardware.com/news/evga-abandons-the-gpu-market-reportedly-citing-conflicts-with-nvidiahttps://www.tomshardware.com/news/evga-abandons-the-gpu-market-reportedly-citing-conflicts-with-nvidiahttps://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-announces-exit-crucial-consumer-businessMusic —Switch It Up - Silent Partner https://youtu.be/r_HRbXhOir8Funk Down - MK2 https://youtu.be/SPN_Ssgqlzc

Across the country, data centers that run A.I. programs are being constructed at a record pace. A large percentage of them use chips built by the tech colossus Nvidia. The company has nearly cornered the market on the hardware that runs much of A.I., and has been named the most valuable company in the world, by market capitalization. But Nvidia's is not just a business story; it's a story about the geopolitical and technological competition between the United States and China, about what the future will look like. In April, David Remnick spoke with Stephen Witt, who writes about technology for The New Yorker, about how Nvidia came to dominate the market, and about its co-founder and C.E.O., Jensen Huang.  Witt's book “The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, Nvidia, and the World's Most Coveted Microchip” came out this year.   This segment originally aired on April 4, 2025.New episodes of The New Yorker Radio Hour drop every Tuesday and Friday. Join host David Remnick as he discusses the latest in politics, news, and current events in conversation with political leaders, newsmakers, innovators, New Yorker staff writers, authors, actors, and musicians.

One of the companies you couldn’t ignore this year was NVIDIA, so we’re re-airing a conversation Oz had with Stephen Witt, a frequent contributor to The New Yorker and author of The Thinking Machine: Jensen Huang, NVIDIA, and the World’s Most Coveted Microchip. They discuss what’s made NVIDIA the most valuable chip company in the world, how a single piece of hardware changed the world forever, and why data centers are shrouded in so much secrecy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Plus: China sanctions U.S. defense companies and executives including Northrop Grumman, Boeing and Palmer Luckey over Taiwan arms sale. And Google will let users change their Gmail address. Julie Chang hosts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The "de minimis" tax exemption on packages under $800 shipped to the U.S. came to an end in August. It's a move that's boosted business for logistics companies but has hit some smaller businesses at home and abroad hard. This morning, we'll learn outline the effects the change has had. Also on this morning's show: an Nvidia licensing deal and the factors driving up precious metal prices.

The "de minimis" tax exemption on packages under $800 shipped to the U.S. came to an end in August. It's a move that's boosted business for logistics companies but has hit some smaller businesses at home and abroad hard. This morning, we'll learn outline the effects the change has had. Also on this morning's show: an Nvidia licensing deal and the factors driving up precious metal prices.

Happy holidays from Sinica! This week, I speak with Paul Triolo, Senior Vice President for China and Technology Policy Lead at DGA Albright Stonebridge Group and nonresident honorary senior fellow on technology at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis. On December 8th, Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that he would approve Nvidia H200 sales to vetted Chinese customers — a decision that immediately sparked fierce debate. Paul and I unpack why this decision was made, why it's provoked such strong reactions, and what it tells us about the future of technology export controls on China. We discuss the evolution of U.S. chip controls from the Entity List expansions under Trump's first term through the October 2022 rules and the Sullivan Doctrine, the role of David Sacks and Jensen Huang in advocating for this policy shift, whether Chinese firms will actually want to buy H200s given their heterogeneous hardware stacks and Beijing's autarky ambitions, what the Reuters report about China cracking ASML's EUV lithography code tells us about the choke point strategy, and whether selective engagement actually strengthens Taiwan's Silicon Shield or undermines it. This conversation is essential listening for understanding the strategic, technical, and political dimensions of the semiconductor competition.6:44 – What the H200 decision actually changes in the real world 9:23 – The evolution of U.S. chip controls: from Entity Lists to the Sullivan Doctrine 18:28 – How Jensen Huang and David Sacks convinced Trump 25:21 – The good-faith case for why export control advocates see H200 approval as a strategic mistake 32:12 – What H200s practically enable: training, inference, or stabilizing existing clusters 38:49 – Will Chinese companies actually buy H200s? The heterogeneous hardware reality 46:06 – The strategic contradiction: exporting 5nm GPUs while freezing tool controls at 16/14nm 51:01 – The Reuters EUV report and what it reveals about choke point technologies 58:43 – How Taiwan fits into this: does selective engagement strengthen the Silicon Shield? 1:07:26 – Looking ahead: broader rethinking of export controls or patchwork exceptions? 1:12:49 – What would have to be true in 2-3 years for critics to have been right about H200?Paying it forward: Poe Zhao and his Substack Hello China TechRecommendations: Paul: Zbig: The Life of Zbigniew Brzezinski, Amerca's Great Power Propheti by Ed Luce; Hyperdimensional Substack by Dean Ball Kaiser: Everything Is Tuberculosis by John Green; The Anthropocene Reviewed by John Green; So Very Small by Thomas LevensonSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Flush from its success in video game graphics, Nvidia sets its sights on turning its gaming chips into the tools that will power the next wave of computing advancement. With both investors and computer scientists skeptical, their plan looks like money down the drain. Right up until A.I. researchers discover the untapped power hidden inside Nvidia's gaming chips.Be the first to know about Wondery's newest podcasts, curated recommendations, and more! Sign up now at https://wondery.fm/wonderynewsletterListen to Business Wars on the Wondery App or wherever you get your podcasts. Experience all episodes ad-free and be the first to binge the newest season. Unlock exclusive early access by joining Wondery+ in the Wondery App or on Apple Podcasts. Start your free trial today by visiting wondery.com/links/business-wars/ now.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.