Podcasts about jgb

The Deadcast tells the dramatic story of when the Hells Angels put ex-Grateful Dead Records president Ron Rakow on trial for walking away from the Dead with $225,000 he believed the band owed him.Guests: Ron Rakow, Steve Brown, Terry Haggerty, John Scher, David Lemeiux See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news uncertainty swirls in the Middle East as Iran has shot down an American Apache helicopter (and Trump is looking more like Jimmy Carter by the day). But more ships are transiting (paying Iran's toll), and that extra oil is easing the global price. But first locally, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered lower prices for the four products offered. AMF was down -4.6% from last week's full auction. Butter was down -0.6%. SMP was down -5.5% and WMP was down -3.5%. But an intervening -2% fall in the NZD took some of the sting out of these retreats. In the US, NFIB Business Optimism Index fell again and to its lowest since October 2024.. These businesses are struggling with "significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices", which they find harder to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors. The weekly ADP jobs report said new private sector jobs created were lower last week at +29,000, in fact their lowest since the end of March. American existing home sales actually rose in May to an annualised rate of 4.17 mln, its highest of the year. This was impressive because mortgage interest rates rose in the period and seems not to have been the handbrake sometimes assumed. All the same, unsold inventory rose. There was a small but notable increase in demand for the overnight and popular US Treasury 3 year bond which delivered a median yield of 4.15% (high of 4.19%), sharply up on the 3.92% median at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In April, US exports of goods and services rose +2.6% from March +12.5% from a year ago, helped by better exports of crude oil, AI computer gear and aircraft, but most offset by a quite sharp fall in tourism receipts. Imports were up +1.9% from March, up +9.1% from a year ago, dominated by capital goods and rising transport and travel cost by Americans. Their trade deficit narrowed slightly, but big trade deficits remained with Taiwan (-$19.3 nln), Vietnam (-$19.3 bln), Mexico (-$14.8 bln), China (-$12.0 bln), the EU (-$7.2 bln), and Canada (-$6.2 bln). The Texas screwworm outbreak is spreading which will affect their beef trade. The outbreak now includes for a dog. Meanwhile, Canadian exports rose +1.6% from the previous month to C$75.2 bln in April, the highest on record and up +24.7% from the same month a year ago. Imports rose too, but they still managed to report their best monthly trade surplus since January 2025 and their best April since 2008. Across the Pacific, China's exports surged +19.4% in May from a year ago to a record high of US$377 bln, far exceeding forecasts of +15% and accelerating sharply from April's 14.1% rise. It was the fastest increase since February and gave them a trade surplus of +US$105.4 bln. However, Chinese oil imports hit an eight year low in May. Across the strait, Taiwan said its exports rose even more impressively, up +52% from a year ago. Their imports were up +55%. That means a trade surplus for them of +US$17.9 bln, middle-range for what they have had since October 2025 and wildly higher than in any prior period Japanese machine tool orders fell in May from April after falling in April too. But they remain up +37% from a year ago. The monthly easing was for orders from both domestic and foreign customers. Staying in Japan, reports are growing that their central bank will raise its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.0% when they meet on Friday week. And they are likely to pause their JGB bond sell-down program that is underway. And in Indonesia, their central bank held an emergency meeting to assess the economic crisis growing in their financial and fx markets. At that meeting they hikes their policy rate to 5.50%, a hike of +25 bps. They last met only three weeks ago when they raised their rate by +25 bps at that time too. They started 2026 with a 4.75% rate. Their actions are required to stop the Indonesian currency falling sharply, down -7.8% in 2026. In Europe, the Netherlands blocked an American company from buying a local firm that handles its national ID system, saying it would create a “threat to the public interest.” The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.53%, down -2 bps for the day. The price of gold will start today down -US$75 from yesterday at US$4258/oz. Silver is down a sharp -US$3.50 at just under US$65/oz. Oil prices are down -US$2.50 from yesterday at just under US$88.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$91.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. China's crude imports dropped to around 7.8 million barrels per day last month, the lowest level in more than eight years and nearly 4 million barrels per day below the 2025 average. Weaker shipments to from the world's largest oil importer even if caused by Hormuz, combined with record US exports and emergency reserve releases, has limited the price impact of the Middle East conflict. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,545 and down -2.95% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

The Deadcast uncovers the secrets of Steal Your Face, the Dead's 1976 live album with a checkered reputation, dramatic backstory, & sonic experimentation by Phil Lesh & Owsley Stanley. Guests: Ron Rakow, Al Teller, John Scher, Ned Lagin, David Lemeiux See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The conclusion of our two-part episode from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit looks at structural shifts in Japan's economy and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's strategic growth agenda.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. This is Part 2 of our podcast from the Japan Summit.It's Friday, May 22nd at 8 am in Tokyo.I might stick with equities for just a minute, and Sho, just to dig deeper into the equity market. Jonathan expressed some of the bullishness. Anything you want to elaborate on where the real strong conviction on this positive view about Japanese equities is coming from?And then just as a warning, I'm going to come back to you and ask, if you're wrong, where could you be wrong? Because again, I think where we add value most to clients is not just giving a clear view, but also pressure testing that view.Sho Nakazawa: Our constructive view on Japan equities comes down to one simple point. Three structural changes are still continuing. So, the first is shifting macro environment. The combination of stable inflation and wage growth is a kind of phenomenon we have not seen, at least in my lifetime. It changes corporates and households' behavior, especially in terms of balance sheet management.And then secondly, the corporates profit improvements. We do not see it as a cyclical recovery. We see it as a structural change. As in the past, Japan corporates heavily relied on cost-cutting amid a deflationary environment. But today, price pass-through is improving, and the Japan corporates are becoming better positioned in growth profit in nominal growth environment.The third is corporate governance reform. Awareness of the capital efficiency has clearly increased. We continue to see share buybacks, dividends increase, and a portfolio restructuring as well. And on top of that, the Takaichi administration has made growth investment and crisis management investment as well.Of course, the Middle East situation is a source of noise. But structurally is a supporting factor for Japan equities secular bear market, which is a view Jonathan has held for very long time, has actually becoming stronger.But let me say that if I'm wrong, maybe I should be more bullish. In fact, the two key drivers here, if we assess the bear case scenario on Japan equities…So, one key driver should be the upside come from the investors constructive view on the Japan fiscal efficiency. And on a micro level, the corporate behavior changing faster than market expects. If we assess the recent rise in long-term yields, it reflect the concern to the Japan fiscal position and that BoJ behind the curve.It would weigh on the Japan equity valuation because it raises cost of capital and it weighs on the Japan equity valuation. But on the other hand, [the] Japanese government will disclose its basic policy in June. And if it could include a credible plan to improve Japan's fiscal positions, perhaps under Japan version of DOGE, which is led by Financial Minister Katayama-san, I think it could alleviate the excessive concern toward the Japan's fiscal position, and it [could] lower the cost of capital on Japan equities.You know, micro level, the corporates behavior is already changing, as I mentioned. But there's still plenty, you know, space for Japan corporates to utilize non-cash generating assets such as cash and deposit, which is equivalent to 60 percent of GDP. The ratio is far higher than our global peers.So, if Japan corporates move further to capital efficiency or portfolio restructuring or use some excess capital, I think there should be additional room for Japan equity market to re-rate higher.Seth Carpenter: All right. So, if you're wrong, it's insufficient bullishness. That's a great place to be.So, so Koichi, Jonathan and Sho are bullish on equities. And so, do you expect big shift in capital flows, and would that drive further appreciation of the currency? How do you think about the global investors' view of Japan? And what it means for capital flows on the one hand, and the value of the currency on the other?Koichi Sugisaki: As for the capital flows, I think under this fresh regime, what's the notable change among the Japanese financials? That they are shifting away from the fixed income product, I mean, like JGBs.Given the current attractive yields, you maybe wonder[ing] why the banking sectors buy the JGBs. But according to the recent disclosures, they have not purchased the JGBs much because their lending activity performed very well. So, as far as their lending activity have performed well, they have no incentive to make money in the securities investment.You know, their lending activity have accelerated thanks to the corporate CapEx investment to improve the productivity amidst the labor shortages in Japan. Once the banking sector starts to see some slowdown or some symptom of the lending activity to slow down, in such a case, they are quickly shifted to the securities investment and the JGB market will change the world.But so far, you know, lending growth [has] accelerated much. You know, the April lending growth is around 6 percent on the year-on-year basis, very strong. So, I think the banking sector still not have a[n] incentive to buy the JGBs.As for the lifers, [the] case is much more serious, I think. Because of the younger ages shifting towards the equities to defend the asset, particularly under the new NISA scheme [which] was launched in 2024. The younger peoples basically allocate their asset to the equities rather than the saving type of the products.Which means that the lifers are struggling to make, to gather the new monies. And this means that the demand for the long-term JGB to shrink. And the Japan lifers already filled the duration this much by 2023 to prepare for the new regulations starting from this fiscal year. Now, fortunately, they already finished the duration this much, this type of operation by 2023. But the yield [has] gone up from 2024, thanks to the BoJ's normalization.So, under such conditions, they are now struggling to the high market loss on the long-term JGBs. And some of lifers are now facing the impairment loss accounting. That actually [makes] lifers a net seller of the long-term JGBs rather than the buyers.Seth Carpenter: Okay, super helpful. Okay, we focused a lot on near-term developments, the energy shock, first quarter GDP. But we can think about a longer-term growth scenario. And there, I think AI comes in at times. Chetan, you've talked about the near-term super cycle, and I think there's a near-term aggregate demand side to AI, but over the longer term, maybe it's more supply.When I think about where growth is going, though, I also think about shifts in the strategy for policy. So maybe Yamaguchi-san, you can talk to me a bit on your take of Prime Minister Takaichi's policies. What do we think is likely to get announced? When? How do you see it affecting the long-term growth outlook for Japan?Takeshi Yamaguchi: [The] Japanese government publishes growth strategy report and the basic policy on fiscal management or honebuto policy in June every year. But I think this year's, you know, documents will be pretty important because these are the first documents under the Takaichi administration.And these documents will set the direction of economic policy by Takaichi-san, Sanae Takaichi. Or Sanae-nomics. Compared with Abenomics, I think Takaichi-san focuses more on the supply side issues, you know, supply domestic investment. While Abenomics focused more on the exit from deflation, focusing on demand side policy, particularly, you know, monetary easing.In the growth strategy report, the focus will be strategic investment in 17 strategic areas, including AI, especially, you know, AI robotics, semiconductors, defense and space, cybersecurity, and content industry and so on.Another important point of Sanaeconomic system, there's overlap between these strategic investment areas and national securities. The government will also update its defense strategy by the end of this year, and there'll be a increase in the defense budget target. The focus will be a lot on, you know, I think, dual use technologies, and also resilience of supply chains going ahead.Another important point is, I think there will be a change in the budget formation process. I think, under deflation there's effectively cap on non-social security spending. But I think this government will likely allocate budget, you know, for multi-investment. So, I think the budget process will be more flexible. And they put more emphasis on the initial budget rather than the supplementary budget.So, I think, these documents will be pretty important to monitor going ahead. But overall, I think, the government – yes, they do care about the market conditions. They will likely avoid massive, you know, expansion. But I think a slight expansion, especially in the area of strategic investment is likely to happen.Seth Carpenter: Very helpful. Alright, that's the end of the panel. Thank you very much to my colleagues. And this is where I have to shift back into podcast mode to say thank you for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a colleague or friend today. Thank you very much, everybody.

Mentor Sessions Ep. 071: Why the “Bond Market Fire Alarm” Is the Most Dangerous Signal of 2026, Why This Is NOT Just Another Yield Spike But the Beginning of the Eurodollar System Attack, and How Bitcoin Becomes the Only True Neutral Reserve Asset | Bhatia & ConsortiTreasury yields are flashing red globally — and Nik Bhatia (The Bitcoin Layer) and Joe Consorti break down exactly why this matters for Bitcoin, the dollar, and the world economy in 2026.Japanese government bond yields just hit their highest level since 1996. The Strait of Hormuz closure triggered an oil shock feeding inflation. And Scott Bessent has quietly told the world that gold and Bitcoin are the neutral reserve assets the system needs. If you're not watching this angle, you'll miss the next decade of Bitcoin's rise.In this deep-dive macro conversation, you'll learn:— Why Nik says the bond market is "flashing a fire alarm" but the US is more resilient than the rest of the world— How the Japanese carry trade unwind threatens global equity markets and what JGB yields at 30-year highs really signal— Why the Eurodollar system is under attack — and how the Strait of Hormuz crisis accelerates that— What repo markets are actually showing right now (the opposite of crisis, and why that matters)— Iran's Bitcoin-backed insurance policy and why Joe calls it "the most important geopolitical Bitcoin development in history"— Why Scott Bessent's "neutral reserve asset" comment is the most bullish Bitcoin signal hiding in plain sight— Joe's probabilistic $150K Bitcoin price framework for 2026 — and Nik's 50/50 all-time-high call by year end⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro1:24 - Introducing Nik Bhatia and Joe Consorti2:08 - Nik's Localized View on Bond Market Risks3:29 - Why a Rising Dollar Raises Concerns4:37 - US Economy Can Sustain 4.5% Yields7:14 - Inflation Sources: Oil Shock Plus Demand10:52 - Joe Breaks Down JGB Yields and Carry Trade16:18 - TACO Framework or Bessent as Volatility Chief21:57 - Fed Put, Treasury Put, and Market Control28:57 - Repo Markets Signal No Crisis Conditions31:09 - Eurodollar System Facing Coordinated Pressure32:26 - Iran's Bitcoin-Backed Insurance Marks Historic Shift38:49 - Gold and Bitcoin as Neutral Reserve Assets44:28 - SEC Plans for Crypto Stock Trading52:51 - Joe Forecasts Bitcoin Reaching 150K55:00 - Nik's Over Under on 150K Bitcoin Target55:47 - Upper Limit on Sustainable Treasury Yields

The Deadcast concludes its extended 2-part tribute to Bobby Weir, ranging into the evolution of his songwriting, stage persona, guitar playing, and unexpected career beyond the Grateful Dead.Guests: Bobby Weir, David Lemieux, Jeff Chimenti, Scott Metzger, Don Was, Gary Lambert, Tim Stevens, Tony Italiano, William Keats, Bretty PauleySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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The Grateful Deadcast returns for its 13th season, beginning with a 2-part tribute to the great Bobby Weir, mixing interviews with archival audio to tell the story of how a teenage Atherton folkie found his singular jazz-informed musical voice (dropping a few water balloons en route).Guests: Bobby Weir, David Lemieux, David Nelson, Gary Lambert, Rhoney Stanley, Graeme BooneSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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We explore Japan's inflation regime shift, JGB volatility and BoJ normalisation — plus what it means for the yen, the dollar and global rates.

European bourses are mostly firmer, US equity futures are flat/incrementally higher.DXY is flat awaiting Retail Sales/ECI, JPY bid alongside JGB stabilisation whilst NOK gains post-inflation.Fixed rebounds from Monday's pressure into data & supply; Gilts outperform as PM Starmer pushed back on calls to resign.WTI and Brent mildly lower, XAU remains above USD 5k/oz; Copper muted heading into Chinese festive period.Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB (Jan), Weekly ADP, ECI (Q4), Retail Sales (Dec) & EIA STEO. Speakers include Fed's Hammack & Logan, Supply from the US. Earnings from Coca-Cola, S&P, Gilead, Robinhood, Welltower, Datadog, Ford, AIG, Xylem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secures a snap election landslide to pave the way for major fiscal spending. Her decisive victory pushed the Nikkei beyond the 57,000-mark for the first time and drove JGB yields higher. In the U.S., beleaguered tech and software stocks rallied on Friday to help the Dow close about 50,000 for the first time ever. Italian lender Unicredit smashes Q4 net profit forecasts and raises its FY 2026 profit guidance. Speaking exclusively to CNBC, CEO Andrea Orcel says his bank has ‘more optionality' to potential dealmaking than other European rivals.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this Podcast, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas discusses how January has been action packed, where isolating the signal from the noise means that the house view at MUFG hasn't fundamentally changed. In our view, the US economy still looks to be setting down a path of a tale of two halves, with fiscal policies expected to mask underlying weakness in the first half of the year, and with stagnant labor demand being the dominant force in the second half that drags income and consumption growth down. We also discuss the upcoming first FOMC meeting of the year where the Fed may highlight the upcoming benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls, that is expected to show even weaker jobs growth than previously thought, if they wish to project a more dovish tone, but markets are anticipating a relatively hawkish Fed that doesn't cut again until June when Powell is out as Chair. Meanwhile the surprise factor for the global rates markets has been the large swing in JGB rates. George explores why this is happening and why what is taking place in Japan might be more moving than US data and the Fed, for now.

Please join Sphia Salim for a discussion with Takayasu Kudo and Shusuke Yamada on Japanese developments this week, including the major long-end steepening. We will review the BoJ meeting, explore what the Feb 8th election, announced this week, could mean for Japanese fiscal policy and thereby the risks it presents for JGB yields, the curve and JPY.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again and have lately filtered into markets more clearly. Global bond yields started rising again, the yield curve steepened from both ends and the USD is on the back foot again. Meanwhile, the JGB market is under pressure and JPY worries are mounting.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyRichard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

S&P futures are up +0.4% and pointing to a higher open today following Tuesday's plunges. Asian equities closed mostly lower on Wednesday, though losses were more contained. Japan was weighed down by financials amid concerns over unrealized JGB losses. Greater China markets performed better, and South Korea's Kospi also ended higher, driven by tech and semiconductor strength. European markets are trading lower as markets remain cautious due to lingering trade tensions. Companies Mentioned: Energy Fuels, GameStop, Community Health Systems

Today, looking at markets in a bad place on concerns for US-Europe relations over Trump's Greenland ambitions, a situation that could fester for global markets even if the European position collapses and there is no major escalation of tariffs or other measures between the two sides. Also, the Japanese government bond market is flashing bright red now after a meltdown in the longest dated JGB's overnight - meaning that the next policy move is incoming, with no attractive options from which to choose. This and more in today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, sees "bells ringing" on the AI tech trade with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Nvidia showing tiredness, and warns the question is whether the baton can be passed to other sectors without the market falling apart. His three favorite groups for 2026 are energy (where $60 oil is "one of the cheapest assets in the world" and he sees $70+ minimum), agriculture (fertilizer stocks like Mosaic and Nutrient), and beaten-down consumer staples offering "bond-like dividend yields with equity-like upside." On Venezuela, he disagrees with the oil-for-midterms thesis - it's really about stiff-arming China, Russia, and Iran, and won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years anyway. He's been trimming silver after its vertical move toward $100 but still likes gold driven by central bank buying and dollar diversification. His biggest concern: if we lose the AI trade, its dominance is so large it could take everything down with it.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvarTimestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Boockvar01:18 2025 retro: World markets did really well, fire lit under international markets03:15 Bells ringing on AI tech trade - Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia tiredness05:45 China competition in AI - models more applicable, monetizing faster06:30 Bifurcated economy: Manufacturing recession, lower-middle income spending weak07:45 Data center build out - question of when not if it slows08:30 Delta earnings: Premium cabin strong, main cabin no growth09:15 Europe bifurcated too: Germany/France struggling, Spain/Greece doing well11:36 Three favorite groups for 2026: Energy, ag, consumer staples12:15 Energy: Bearish sentiment extreme, contrarian setup, CFTC net longs at 15-year lows13:30 Venezuela: 5-10 years before notable production increase14:15 OPEC production lagging quotas - most running at full capacity15:00 US shale production slowing, rolling over even in Permian15:45 Peak oil demand pushed out - hybrids winning, EV demand delayed16:30 Ag: Fertilizer stocks - Mosaic, Nutrient - down and out value plays17:15 Consumer staples destroyed over 12 months - deep value now17:52 Names: Kimberly Clark, Nestle, Pepsi, ConAgra, Coke, Reynolds18:24 Oil at $60 is one of the cheapest assets in the world - sees $70 minimum19:15 Energy holdings: Exxon, BP, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Oxy, Noble, EQT23:44 Venezuela won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years - focused on near-term25:32 Inflation: Conflicting dynamics - services decelerating, goods inflation returning27:00 Next Fed chair will have inflation dilemma - sticky around 3%28:45 Services inflation could rebound in back half of 2026 as apartment supply absorbed29:01 Reaction to Powell subpoena30:09 Powell is done cutting - will be playing 18 holes in June31:28 Last Fed cut was not necessary - took neutral rate below 1%32:30 Need low and stable prices first, then labor market improves35:34 Gold north of $4,600 - levels don't surprise, maybe pace did36:27 Silver at $92 - trimming position, tree needs to take a breather37:30 Gold thesis: Central bank buying, dollar diversification has more legs38:49 2025 lesson: World woke up to opportunities outside mag seven40:22 What not to own: Mag seven, long duration bonds40:46 Japan matters for global rates - JGB yields rising, canary in coal mine42:00 Bullish emerging market local currency bonds - better finances, cheap currencies42:57 EM names: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia43:45 Biggest risk: Losing AI trade and gap up in long-term rates44:24 Optimism: Broadening out continues, international markets, commodity trade has legs45:03 Parting thoughts: Investors need to be flexible in their thinking

Join Kalshi Today: http://kalshi.com/r/MOSESDanny and Dan Nathan hit bank earnings and why mega money-center banks look “priced to perfection,” what tightening net interest margins andinvestment banking fees signal for the broader tape, and how concentrated S&P 500 earnings and capex in the “Mag 7” create hidden risks. They run through why equal-weight indices, energy and materials could be “sponge worthy” winners if leadership broadens, and why Danny is leaning into gold, silver, miners, and an under-owned energy sector as structural plays. The conversation also tackles the proposed 10% credit-card rate cap and its real implications for banks, Amex, Capital One, Visa/Mastercard, buy-now-pay-later names like Affirm, and the stressed U.S. consumer in a K-shaped economy living with years of cumulative inflation. Danny breaks down Japan's yen, carry trades, and what rising JGB yields might mean for Treasuries and global risk assets, before wrapping with thoughts on DraftKings, prediction markets, select stock ideas, and his NFL playoff picks.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Patriot games are coming. Larry Ellison in the spotlight. Hi Ho Silver and away! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - ELON gets his $$$ - Kids account challenge - Patriot games are coming... Markets - Not much headwinds - EOY approaching - Analysts predicting SP500 for 2026 - 7,500 (12% upside) - More Oracle back and forth - Gold and Silver Elon - Elon Musk's net worth surged to $749 billion late Friday after the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Tesla stock options worth $139 billion that were voided last year - He also recently received a $1T pay plan approval - Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jensen Huang combined - His fortune exceeds the GDP of nations like the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland. - He is richer than every country in Africa by GDP - He is projected by some reports to become the world's first trillionaire by 2027 When did Larry Ellison and Oracle become newsworthy? - Every day in the news.... - Larry Ellison NOW Personally Guarantees Paramount Bid for Warner Bros. - The announcement of Mr. Ellison's personal guarantee is meant to address concerns that the Warner Bros. Discovery's board had expressed about Paramount's original offer. - Helping out sonny-boy? More Oracle - Oracle stock slid after a report that Blue Owl Capital won't back a $10 billion data center for OpenAI. (Michigan) - Oracle has $248 billion in lease commitments for data centers and cloud capacity commitments over the next 15 to 19 years. - Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks. EVEN MORE! - Multiple media outlets, including the Associated Press, reported that ByteDance has reached an agreement with Oracle ORCL, Silver Lake, and Abu-Dhabi-based MGX to set up a joint venture for TikTok's US operations. Oracle will hold a 15.0% stake in the new entity, while ByteDance will retain a 19.9% stake. - The important thing her is that TikTok stays as a major tenant of OCI as ORCL needs this cash flow... - Of all of the items, this may be why ORCL stock has bounced te last few days. Congressional Ban - A vote on legislation banning members from owning or trading stocks could get a vote in the new year, according to House leadership and Republican members. - President Donald Trump has said he supports a congressional ban but has pushed back on versions that include the executive branch. - Basically this bill would prohibit the ownership of individual stocks by congress Over to Japan - Bank of Japan raises benchmark rates to highest in 30 years, lifting 10-year JGB yield past 2% - Yen still VERY weak - trading at 157/USD - (problematic) - The BOJ said that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly negative,” adding that accommodative financial conditions will continue to firmly support economic activity. - The yen weakened 0.25% against the USD after the decision - therefore still dovish and stimulative Economic Numbers - Estimates, partial numbers and best guesses. OH, 2-month averaging as well - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual headline inflation rate and core CPI rate for last month were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, well below expectations. - Due to government shutdown, BLS to make certain methodological assumptions about the prior month's inflation levels. - Those assumptions in the methodology were not clear to economists and were not fully explained in the release. - Here is a big issue: The price changes in October for the OER (owners equivalent rent) appear to have been “set to zero.”  Sports Prediction Markets - Sports is fueling the growth and is forecasted to make up 44% of volume as prediction markets mature. - According to one expert: the fundamental elements of consumer demand and an array of diverse brands looking to meet that demand are clearly in place - Sportsbooks are getting a bit nervous.... First Dell, then... - Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and his wife, Barbara, committed to seed Trump accounts for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. - Following the Dells' pledge, the funds will be aimed at kids who live in a Connecticut ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. - The Dalio grant will fund $250 per child for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. This applies to children who live in a ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. About 87% of Connecticut ZIP codes meet that criteria, according to a CNBC analysis of Census Bureau data. - “Ray has joined what we are calling the 50-state challenge,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press conference on Wednesday. - A growing number of companies have announced they would match contributions to Trump accounts for their employees, including BNY and BlackRock. Patriot Games (Hunger Games?) - Trump announced: The Washington Monument will be illuminated with festive lights, a triumphal arc will be constructed and the “Patriot Games” will commence. The games are an “unprecedented four-day athletic event featuring the greatest high school athletes: one young man and one young woman from each state and territory. - Uhhhhhh "And so it was decreed that, each year, the various districts of Panem would offer up, in tribute, one young man and woman to fight to the death in a pageant of honor, courage and sacrifice. (Hunger Games 2012) - What next - PURGE NIGHT? Fed Pick - Now it seems as if it is a 4 person race... - President Trump says "Nowadays, when there is good news, the market goes down because everybody thinks that interest rates will be immediately lifted"; says "I want my new Fed Chairman to lower interest rates if the market is doing well"; says "Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" San Fran Blackout - Alphabet-owned Waymo resumed its robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area Sunday evening after pausing it amid widespread blackouts that had affected their vehicles' behavior. - Waymo said it worked with city officials throughout the blackout and had “proactively” initiated a temporary suspension of its service. - Interesting point there - what happens when grid disruptions for internet with self-driving Angry Shareholders (For a minute) - Tricolor CEO Daniel Chu directed a deputy to send him $6.25 million in bonuses in August, weeks before the company filed for bankruptcy, U.S. prosecutors alleged. - Subprime autofirm that had alleged fraud - This happens all the time - Big issue to keep alert to is the news about "Subprime" WEED - Trump's executive order shifts cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, easing research, banking and tax restrictions and marking the biggest federal cannabis policy change in decades. - Shares of cannabis conglomerates were down following the announcement, likely from worries of new competition from international companies. - NOT legalization - NOT for recreational use... - Banking, Institutional capital ..... OpenAi - Beggars cup continues - OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer's effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp. - The deal under discussion could value OpenAI north of $500 billion and see it adopt Amazon's Trainium chip, a person with knowledge of the matter said, asking to remain anonymous to describe private negotiations. - Talks, however, are at a preliminary stage and terms could change, the person added. High Ho Silver and Away! - Silver up 135% YTD - Gold up 70% - Best year since strongest annual performance since 1979 for Gold - 1970's was inflation, USD weakening, Energy crisis. - What is similar/different now? (Big difference is buying up (China, Poland, Turkey, India) Light menu - Darden Restaurants will roll out a new lighter portion entrées menu at all Olive Garden locations in January, the company announced during its quarterly earnings call last Thursday. - Citing affordability: "Olive Garden has seen a double-digit increase in affordability perceptions from guests who order from the lighter portions menu and an increase in frequency among these guests, which should help build traffic over time," Cardenas said. - Sooooo 0 due to high costs, Americans are cutting back on food? - If it were for weight loss, no need for Oliver garden to cut back on portions as most inedible anyway... Copper - Copper prices topped $12,000 a ton for the first time, extending the metal's recent bull run as mine outages add to concerns about supply. - The threat of US import tariffs on the metal has also been an important factor pushing up prices this year, with copper piling up in American warehouses. - Industry analysts have said that much of the richest and most easily accessible mining resources are now exhausted, and experts are warning that the market is on the cusp of a major deficit. Jim Beam - Bourbon maker Jim Beam is halting production at one of its distilleries in Kentucky for at least a year as the whiskey industry navigates tariffs from the Trump administration and slumping demand for a product that needs years of aging before it is ready. - Jim Beam said the decision to pause bourbon making at its Clermont location in 2026 will give the company time to invest in improvements at the distillery. The bottling and warehouse at the site will remain open, along with the James B. Beam Distilling Co. visitors center and restaurant. - The percentage of U.S. adults who say they consume alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest by one percentage point in Gallup's nearly 90-year trend. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner) FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Today, we look at equity markets trying to ramp up for a strong close to a strong year. On Tesla's recent share price ramp, we have finally gotten the memo, as there is clearly a SpaceX angle for the company's stock of late that could send it higher still depending on market conditions for an eventual SpaceX IPO and whether Tesla shareholders get special access. Elsewhere, the JPY tries to make a stand after Friday's ugly downdraft and as JGB yields spike again. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at AI stocks trying to get back their stride, Trump's DJT stock now becoming a nuclear fusion play and thoughts on what exactly can stop the yen from weakening when the market continues to play the currency as an emerging market currency after today's BoJ hike, with weakness in the currency coinciding with new 26-year highs in the 10-year JGB yield, which has ripped higher through 2.00%. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

US equity futures point to a modestly firmer open, while Asian markets traded broadly higher and European equities edged up. Today focus is on disinflation momentum and central bank cross-currents, after a softer-than-expected US core CPI reinforced the dovish Fed narrative and helped drive a rebound in technology and AI-linked stocks; Attention remains on Japan after the Bank of Japan delivered a widely expected rate hike while maintaining accommodative guidance, weakening the yen and pushing JGB yields above 2%; AI sentiment remains a key driver following Micron's upbeat outlook and renewed optimism around AI funding and capex, even as markets continue to reassess the durability and monetization path of the AI trade.Companies Mentioned: OpenAI, TikTok, NVIDIA

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Chris Jakubowski Head of FI FX Sales to discuss the fallout in the FX markets following the FOMC meeting this week and what this final meeting of the year means for the US dollar going forward. Derek and Chair also look ahead to the final full week of trading next week and discuss the BoE and BoJ meetings. Can the BoJ restore confidence to the JGB market with a rate hike and a message of more?

Daniel Lam discusses the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, the likelihood of a rate hike, how the JGB bond yields have been reacting, and risks of a JPY carry trade unwind.Speaker: - Daniel Lam, Head of Equity Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan's new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard's platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend?06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and...

Global bond yields rise amid complicated pictures in the USA and Japan. Treasurys saw yields rise on stronger U.S. jobs data, while deepening expectations of a rate hike by the BOJ sees JGB prices fall. Elsewhere, Netflix has reportedly won the battle over Warner Bros Discovery; and Meta shares rise on reports the company is planning sweeping cuts to its ‘metaverse' unit, a former darling of CEO Mark Zuckerburg.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Bitcoin's sudden flash crash has rattled markets as global liquidity tightens and Japan's bond market sends crisis-level warning signals. With 20-year JGB yields spiking toward historic stress points, the yen carry trade is rapidly unwinding and dragging risk assets with it. Gold is surging to six-week highs, Fed rate-cut odds are accelerating, and Trump's move to appoint a new Fed chair adds major uncertainty to the monetary outlook. At the same time, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has become its fastest-growing product of 2025, even as Tether faces renewed balance-sheet scrutiny and confidence across crypto wavers.

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending not far from worst levels. It was a fairly quiet session in the wake of the US Thanksgiving holiday. The market shook off a bit of the morning's risk-off bias tabbed to upward pressure on JGB yields amid ramping BoJ tightening expectations, as well as ongoing Bitcoin weakness following a nearly 20% decline last month.

US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.European and US equity futures are broadly on the backfoot, following on from a cautious mood in APAC trade.DXY is pressured by the stronger JPY following jawboning from Japanese officials and after BoJ Governor Ueda hinted at a December rate hike.Bonds were initially pressured following on from JGB downside, and then took a leg lower alongside Gilt underperformance soon after the European cash open.Crude futures benefit after OPEC+ holds output steady through Q1'26 and in reaction to further Ukrainian strikes in Russian oil refineries; 3M LME Copper surges to fresh ATHs above USD 11.2k/t, but has since scaled back given the risk tone and downbeat Chinese PMI figures.Looking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov), Saudi-Russia Business Forum, EU Supply. Speak from Fed Chair Powell (Fed Blackout) and BoE's Dhingra.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall Street, where all major indices gained ahead of Thanksgiving celebrations.10yr JGB futures edged higher but with the gains modest after reports that Japan is likely to increase issuances of 2yr and 5yr JGBs.Alibaba shares were pressured after the Pentagon said it should be on the list of firms with Chinese military ties, while China Vanke shares were hit and its bonds slumped.US President Trump told Japan to lower the volume on Taiwan, following a call with Chinese President Xi, according to WSJ.European equity futures indicate an uneventful open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up flat after the cash market closed with gains of 1.5% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK (Dec), EZ M3 (Oct), Consumer Confidence Final (Nov), Japanese Tokyo CPI (Nov), Industrial Profit (Oct) & Retail Sales (Oct), ECB Minutes (Oct), Speakers including BoE's Greene, ECB's Cipollone & de Guindos, Supply from Italy. Holiday: US Thanksgiving Day; Desk will run normal services on Thursday, 27th November until 18:15GMT/13:15EST. At which point, the desk will close and then re-open later at 22:00GMT/17:00EST for the APAC session. Thereafter, there is normal service on Friday, 28th November until 18:15GMT/13:15EST at which point the desk will close.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Episode Summary: This week on Backstage Bay Area, host Steve Roby welcomes two-time Grammy Award-winning violinist Mads Tolling. Known for his work with the Turtle Island Quartet, Stanley Clarke, and Bob Weir, Mads is shifting gears this season to share a piece of his Danish childhood in San Francisco.Mads takes us inside his project, Cool Yule: A Nordic Holiday Celebration, a "love letter" to his upbringing in Copenhagen. We explore the concept of "hygge," compare the structured traditions of a Danish Christmas with the chaotic energy of American holidays, and delve into the fascinating—and sometimes frightening—folklore of the North. From a rice pudding-eating gnome to a child-eating "Christmas Cat," Mads explains the stories behind the music. Plus, hear how he transforms an 1830s violin into a growling baritone instrument he calls "Uncle Scratchy."In This Episode, We Discuss:Life Lately: Meds' recent touring with Melvin Seals & JGB and his deep dive into the Grateful Dead repertoire.Nordic vs. American Christmas: Why the "Christmas spirit" feels different in Denmark, the importance of hygge (coziness), and why the 24th is the real main event in Scandinavia.Folklore & Music:The Gnome's Attic: The story of the Nisse who demands his rice pudding (and fights off rats to get it).The Christmas Cat: An Icelandic legend about a giant fashion-policing cat that eats children who don't receive new clothes for Christmas."Uncle Scratchy": Mads explains his unique baritone violin, tuned an octave lower to create a cello-like, medieval growl perfect for monster stories.The Frozen Connection: How a modern Disney hit connects back to Danish author Hans Christian Andersen's The Snow Queen.Featured Music:"The Gnome's Attic" (from Cool Yule) "The Christmas Cat" (from Cool Yule) Upcoming Live Show: Catch Mads Tolling & The Mads Men live for a special holiday engagement!Event: Cool Yule: A Nordic Holiday Celebration Dates: Saturday, Dec 13 & Sunday, Dec 14, 2025 Venue: Joe Henderson Lab, SFJAZZ (San Francisco) Showtimes: 7:00 PM & 8:30 PM The Band: Mads Tolling (violin), Colin Hogan (piano/accordion), Gary Brown (bass), Eric Garland (drums).Resources & Links:Get Tickets: SFJAZZ Ticket LinkMads Tolling Official Site: madstolling.comHost: Steve Roby, Backstage Bay Area

APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, where stocks were underpinned amid Russia/Ukraine optimism and a softer yield environment.US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy.Nikkei 225 shrugged off a source report that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call; JPY strengthened, 10yr JGB futures trickled lower.NZD outperformed after the RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, as expected, and kept its options open on future policy, although its projections suggested a pause in rates throughout 2026.White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is reportedly seen as the frontrunner in the Fed Chair search, according to Bloomberg citing sources, although separate sources said “there is no frontrunner”.Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Jobless Claims (w/e 22 Nov), UK Autumn Budget, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including ECB's Vujcic, Lane & Lagarde, Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Following the supplementary budget announced in Japan on Friday, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Jack Greenslade in Corporate FX Sales to discuss the details of the package what it means for JGB issuance plans going forward and the possible impact on JGB yields and the yen. Looking ahead of next week Derek and Jack discuss the UK budget announcement scheduled for Wednesday 26th November and what will be key for Gilts and the pound.

APAC stocks traded lower across the board as the sharp Wall Street selloff reverberated through the region despite the absence of fresh catalysts.JPMorgan no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, vs its prior forecast of a 25bp cut.10yr JGB futures retraced some of this week's losses whilst the session saw a slew of commentary from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who, on the bond market, attempted to alleviate some fiscal woes.Japan may intervene before USD/JPY reaches 160, according to Bloomberg, citing a government panellist.Crypto markets continue bleeding with Bitcoin falling under USD 85,500 at a 7-month low, while Ethereum fell to a 4-month low.Looking ahead, UK PSNB (Oct), Retail Sales (Oct), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Nov), US Real Weekly Earnings (Sep), Canadian Retail Sales (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan (Nov), Euro Area Indicator of Negotiated Wage Rates (Q3), Moody's on the UK & Italy, ECB's de Guindos, Lagarde, Nagel; Fed's Williams, Barr, Jefferson, Logan; SNB's Schlegel.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Deadcast's overstuffed season finale unpacks Blues For Allah's oft-misunderstood title track, the unlikely story of its album art, & the remarkable coalition that manifested the Dead's September 1975 Golden Gate Park show, officially the New Age Bio-Centennial Unity Fair.Guests: David Lemieux, Ron Rakow, Al Teller, Ned Lagin, Steve Brown, Bill McCarthy, Larry Weissman, Gary Lambert, Ed Perlstein, Joan Miller, Geoff Gould, Dan Hanklein, Raymond Foye, Nicholas Meriwether, Shaugn O'Donnell, Chadwick Jenkins, Keith EatonSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

APAC stocks extended losses throughout the session following a similar lead from Wall Street, which had seen heavy losses on Monday. Overall newsflow in APAC hours was quiet, although tech stocks were among the laggards in the region.DXY traded flat for most of the session and eventually drifted lower before dipping under 99.50 despite quiet newsflow, but as haven FX (JPY and CHF) gained amid risk aversion. JGB futures saw limited movement at the short end while the long end continued to weaken, pushing the 20-year yield to its highest level since July 1999. Bitcoin saw deep losses and eventually fell under the USD 90,000 mark to levels last seen in April, whilst Ethereum fell under USD 3,000.European equity futures are indicative of a lower cash open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 1.1% after cash closed 0.9% lower on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly Estimate, US Factory Orders (Aug), US Durable Goods (Aug), and Japanese Trade Balance. Speakers include ECB's Elderson; BoE's Pill, Dhingra; Fed's Barr, Barkin. Earnings include Home Depot, Baidu, Medtronic, PDD; Imperial Brands, Diploma.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P futures are pointing higher today. Asia equities ended higher, Europe opened with strong gains. US dollar unchanged. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields also up. Crude oil futures higher. Precious metals up with gold back above $4K. Base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies also rallying. Risk sentiment supported on news that US Senate is nearing deal to end government shutdown with enough Democrats in support. Compromise said to involve fully funding Departments of Agriculture and Veterans Affairs for a year while partially funding other agencies through 30-Jan. Agreement guarantees laid-off federal employees will be re-hired and given backpay. Any deal would also unblock release of delayed economic data, providing colour on December rate cut prospects. White House also warned of a potentially negative Q4 GDP print from shutdown that extended past Thanksgiving. Companies Mentioned: Accor, Metsera, Pfizer, Novo Nordisk

The Deadcast explores Bobby Weir's guitar étude, “Sage and Spirit,” speaking with one of the song's namesakes, Sage Scully, before taking an extended trip to legendary Dead show at the Great American Music Hall in August 1975, where the song received its only full live performance.Guests: David Lemieux, Donna Jean Godchaux MacKay, Sage Scully, Ron Rakow, Al Teller, Steve Brown, Roger Lewis, Lee Brenkman, Steve Schuster, Gary Lambert, Deb Trist, Ed Perlstein, Danno Henklein, Joan Miller, Steve Silberman, Michael Parrish, Keith Eaton, Shaugn O'Donnell, Benny LanderSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We explore how the dreamy delicacy of Crazy Fingers came about at a time of great tumult in Grateful Dead history, with visits from new record company boss Al Teller of United Artists and Seastones composer Ned Lagin, plus a stop at Winterland for the Bob Fried Memorial Boogie.Guests: David Lemieux, Al Teller, Ron Rakow, Ned Lagin, Gary Lambert, Michael Parrish, Danno Henklein, Ed Perlstein, Geoff Gould, Jay Kerley, Blair Jackson, Shaugn O'Donnell, Chadwick Jenkins, Christopher Coffman, Nicholas MeriwetherSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Bobby Weir & John Perry Barlow's classic “The Music Never Stopped” came into being when the music was briefly in danger of stopping, the song transforming from live jam to final form as the Dead struggled to solve the financial difficulties that came with a retirement from the road.Guests: David Lemieux, Ron Rakow, Steven Schuster, Steve Silberman, Sean Howe, Shaugn O'Donnell, Chadwick Jenkins, Christopher Coffman, Graeme Boone, Eric Lindquist, Benny LanderSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Deadcast unpacks the two-part extra-heady “King Solomon's Marbles”/'Stronger Than Dirt or Milkin' the Turkey,” using the instrumental to get into the Dead's 1975 dalliances with holography, as well as Phil Lesh's other unfinished pieces from Blues For Allah.Guests: David Lemieux, Ned Lagin, Ron Rakow, Eugene Dolgoff, Michael Parrish, Ed Perlstein, Keith Eaton, Nicholas G. Meriwether, Shaugn O'Donnell, Chadwick JenkinsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Deadcast examines how Franklin's Tower bucked every trend on Blues For Allah to become one of the Dead's all-time classics, including a tape of its studio creation, a look into the multi-tracks, & a rare line-by-line breakdown by lyricist Robert Hunter himself.Guests: David Lemieux, Geoff Gould, Jürgen Fauth, Shaugn O'Donnell, Chadwick Jenkins, Will Backstrom, Max Ritchie, Hannah GrabbensteinSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Deadcast uses Blues For Allah's complicated instrumental Slipknot! to explore the musical and creative ambiguity the Grateful Dead pursued in early 1975, when there both was and wasn't a Grateful Dead, & their public reemergence at Bill Graham's S.N.A.C.K. benefit that March.Guests: David Lemieux, Ned Lagin, Ron Rakow, Steve Brown, Gary Lambert, Joan Miller, Jay Kerley, Chadwick Jenkins, Shaugn O'Donnell, Melvin BackstromSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Grateful Deadcast points itself towards 1975 to begin a song-by-song celebration of Blues For Allah's 50th anniversary, loaded with raw session tapes, early lyric drafts, & the story of how the Dead built a new studio, musical language, batch of songs, & LP from the ground up. Guests: David Lemieux, Donna Jean Godchaux-MacKay, Ron Rakow, Stephen Barncard, Ned Lagin, Steve Brown, Gary Lambert, Keith Eaton, Shaugn O'Donnell, Chadwick Jenkins, Matt CampbellSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.