POPULARITY
We are super excited this week to have Rob Koritz of Dark Star Orchestra as our guest on No Simple Road as part of our lead up to Skull & Roses Festival! Rob was classically trained at the University of Arizona before realizing there was little career opportunity in classical percussion. After some travel time in Europe (including 1990 Dead Tour) he resumed his studies, getting a degree in Jazz Studies at Webster University in his hometown, St. Louis MO.Over the next 9 years, his musical career including everything from original bands to Dead, jazz, classical, country, zydeco, a samba troupe doing corporate gigs, and way too many wedding gigs. We jump right into it with Rob talking about:Rob's favorite cartoon as a kid.Why he created a podcast during the Pandemic and what he had to learn to make it happen.How he got turned on to The Grateful DeadWhat it was that pulled him from school to music.They way he saw the Dead scene explode when Touch Of Grey came out.How unexpected it is to be carrying on the musical legacy of The Grateful Dead through DSO.What his experience is like when the music plays the band.What the recent DSO Europe tour was like for him.How he has finally found equilibrium in a work/life balance.His perspective on why Grateful Dead music does what it does for people.... and a ton more!THIS WEEK'S OPENING MUSIC BY YOUNG & SICK-Grab your tickets now for Skull & Roses Festival April 19th - 23rd at the hallowed grounds of the Ventura County Raceway! Performances by Phil Lesh & Friends, Dark Star Orchestra, Oteil & Friends, Melvin Seals & JGB, and many more! Tickets on sale now!www.skullandroses.com-FREE SHIPPING from Shop Tour Bus Use The PROMO CODE: nosimpleroad-Make Sure to visit our friends at Fire On The Mountain for some amazing food at one of the 3 location in the Portland area or one of the 2 location in the Denver area!-CHECK OUT THE NSR EXCLUSIVE BETA PREVIEW OF www.venuellama.com SIGN UP BEFORE MARCH 15th AND BE ENTERED IN A DRAWING FOR A PAIR OF TICKETS TO ONE OF THE VENUE LLAMA HIGHLIGHTED TOURS LIKE DEAD & CO., PHISH, GOOSE, WIDESPREAD PANIC, AND BILLY STRINGS.MUSIC IN THE COMMERCIALS BY AND USED WITH PERMISSION OF:CIRCLES AROUND THE SUNOUTRO MUSIC BY AND USED WITH PERMISSION OF:CHILLDREN OF INDIGONo Simple Road is part of OSIRIS MEDIA. Osiris Media is the leading storyteller in music, combining the intimacy of podcasts with the power of music.We inform and delight music fans by creating shows with leading artists, telling untold stories, and working with brands to craft compelling narratives that bring music to life.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/nosimpleroad. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The Adventures of Pigpen, part 2The Deadcast concludes our tribute to Ron “Pigpen” McKernan, exploring his years with the Dead, featuring more documents from the McKernan family archives, his alleged firing, former housemate Tom Constanten, lost song lyrics, & last songs.GUESTS: Jim Sullivan, Tom Constanten, Denise Kaufman, Eric Thompson, Starfinder Stanley, David Lemieux, Kay Alexander, Mike DolgushkinSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The Adventures of Pigpen, part 1The Deadcast marks 50 years since the passing of original Grateful Dead frontman Ron “Pigpen” McKernan, in part 1 uncovering his mysterious pre-Dead years in the Palo Alto folk scene, featuring a visit to the McKernan archives, never-heard performances, & archival interviews.GUESTS: Jim Sullivan, Denise Kaufman, Eric Thompson, Ted Claire, David LemieuxSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
USDJPY has stopped rising while 10-year JGB yields remain stuck at 0.50%. The Nikkei Average is up and risk sentiment is positive. Japanese investors have been rebuilding their foreign bond positions ahead of the end of fiscal year 2022. Japanese investors' foreign bond flows are stronger than JPY bond flows among foreigners. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido previews the March Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Board meeting and shares his outlook for JPY rates in March. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
The Dow suffers its worst day of the year so far, falling almost 700 points and Treasury yields are at fresh highs. Cautious U.S. retail guidance has increased concerns over consumer demand. In Japan, the central bank buys up more emergency bonds after the 10-year JGB crosses a key limit for the second trading session. Russia withdraws from the landmark START deal with the U.S. sparking fears of nuclear tests being resumed by Moscow. We are live in Warsaw where President Biden pledges unwavering support for Ukraine in a key speech ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion. We are also live in Stockholm where the leaders of Sweden and Finland urge Turkey to approve their countries' accession to NATO. And in gaming news, Microsoft holds talks with EU officials to approve its planned $69bn acquisition of ‘Call of Duty' maker Activision Blizzard. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
European bourses are under pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.2%, in a continuation of APAC/US trade that was exacerbated by the latest geopolitical developments re. Romanian airspace.Stateside, futures are directionally in-fitting with Europe given broader geopolitics-induced action though with marked NQ -1.0% underperformance as yields pick up globally.JPY soared on reports that Ueda will be the gov'ts nomination for BoJ Governor, with USD/JPY dropping to 129.82 from 131.55; however, Ueda announcing he is happy with easy policy saw this unwind back towards 131.00.Amidst this, the DXY was pushed down to 102.89 though has since been revitalised by the above Ueda commentary and geopolitics, taking the index to a session peak of 103.50.Core fixed benchmarks came under JGB-led pressure on the initial Ueda reports, sending Bunds, Gilts and USTs to 135.88, 104.07 and 112.29+ lows.WTI and Brent are bolstered following Novak announcing that Russia is to cut oil production by 500k BPD in March, posting upside in excess of USD 2/bbl.Looking ahead, Canadian Jobs Report, US Uni. of Michigan Prelim, EU Leaders Summit (2/2), Speeches from Fed's Waller & Harker, ECB's Schnabel, BoE's Pill.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Among the major asset classes, no market has experienced a sea-change in volatility levels more so than the US government bond market over the past few years. Consider that the MOVE index reached the low 40's in 2019, spiked to 160 during the March'20 Covid market crisis, descended below 40 in late 2020 and then surged in 2022, again reaching 160. It is against this fast-changing risk backdrop, and exceptionally high vol of vol that I had the pleasure of welcoming Deep Kumar to the Alpha Exchange.The Co-CIO of III Capital Management, Deep is engaged in finding value in global government bond markets, deploying relative value strategies across the curve and utilizing derivatives to seek out asymmetric return opportunities. Armed with a PhD in hypersonics, Deep hit Wall Street in the mid 90's, building risk and pricing models that leveraged his understanding of the math that underpins derivatives pricing. Our discussion looks back on some of the formative events that Deep has encountered and how those have cemented the idea that volatility itself is volatile, a notion that matters in option pricing, especially when risk managing exposure to deep out of the money strikes.The back half of our discussion considers the here and now and what Deep sess in the prices on hand. In Japan, we discuss the JGB yield curve “Kuroda Kink” and relate the importance of positioning – in this case by the price insensitive BoJ – in impacting market clearing prices. On the US front, he sees excess optimism reflected in the belly of the yield curve, where the meaningful inversion between 3-month bills and 2 year notes suggests an ongoing trend in disinflation that will enable the Fed to begin easing in 2023. Skeptical that this can occur perfectly according to plan, Deep is using OTC derivative trades that capitalize on a reversal of the negative term premium currently priced in the curve.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Dr. Deep Kumar.
This months show comes to us from an all-time run in the New York area... the run right before the epic trip to Europe. You guys are sure to enjoy this one! Bob brought in some JGB for the break. Have fun, kids! GRATEFUL DEAD March 23, 1972 Academy of Music New York, NY SOURCE: Soundboard/Unk. HALFTIME: Jerry Garcia Band 9/20/76
The last time Jack Farley had Tokyo-based, global macro markets trader and Bank of Japan aficionado Weston Nakamura on Forward Guidance - the BOJ had shocked the world with a sudden unexpected major change in their Yield Curve Control policy. At the January Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the BOJ once again shocked markets and caused mayhem in bond and FX markets - but this time, by doing nothing. Despite the unprecedented scale of record-setting JGB buying (or, foreign and domestic investor selling pressure), the Bank of Japan delivered a unanimous vote of no change in Yield Curve Control policy for Governor Kuroda's second to last meeting of his historic, and dramatically controversial tenure of radical policy experimentation. Ahead of today's policy release, Weston had been discussing his outlook for a "no-change" BOJ policy outcome, and had positioned for the event against market consensus, using the same framework that he and Jack had discussed at the end of December of market functioning and financial stability to determine policy outcome (as opposed to inflation-combating). In addition to the Bank of Japan and the most intense market pressure they are currently under, Weston also explains what is behind the remarkable strength in the yen as of late, how it is possible for JGBs to yield above the so-called Yield Curve Control upper ceiling, and what's next for the "least predictable" major central bank, as we head into the critical end of Governor Kuroda's era. See Weston and Jack from the previous December 2022 BOJ Day: Bank of Japan's Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston Nakamura Dec 21, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYR34YbXMvY&t=157s Listen to Weston Nakamura and Emma Muhleman, CFA discuss the Bank of Japan in full detail on Twitter Spaces during live Japan trading hours ahead of the BOJ decision here: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1BdGYyNpYAyGX?s=20 – Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Weston on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. __
Chinese annual GDP has come in at its second-worst rate since the Cultural Revolution, growing at only 3 per cent – well below its official 5.5 per cent target. The country's population also contracted for the first time in six decades. We hear from Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez who says the EU should follow the U.S. lead on fighting inflation and that he hopes a trade war could be avoided. The World Economic Forum kicks off in its annual winter slot for the first time since 2020 in Davos. ‘Polycrisis' and fragmentation risks are two central themes this year as the IMF warns the developing world is falling behind. Up to two-thirds of global economists are braced for recession within a year while CEO confidence has fallen to a more than 10-year low. And in Japan, the BoJ holds its two-day policy meeting. The 10-year JGB has surpassed the 0.5 per cent threshold for the third consecutive session. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The 10-year JGB breaks the BoJ's ceiling for a second day while the yen surges. The central bank is now under pressure to begin tightening monetary policy. The IMF has a dire warning ahead of this year's World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, predicting that economic fragmentation could cause global GDP to fall by up to 7 per cent. On Wall Street, U.S. banks post a mixed set of Q4 results amid increased provisioning and downturn concerns. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says 2023 will see likely see a ‘mild recession' in early to mid-2023. Credit Suisse is reportedly to slash 10 per cent of its investment banking staff as part of its next wave of restructuring. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The Bank of Japan's surprise monetary policy decision in December hastened a sell-off in the JGB market, a drop in Dollar/Yen, and a tightening of Yen cross-currency basis. The government's FY23 budget has grown to JPY114 trillion causing upward pressure on JPY rates to likely persist. We suggest investors watch not only BoJ JGB purchases but also BoJ lending and pooled collateral operations. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the December BoJ meeting, the monetary operations that followed, and what he expects going forward. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
The Bank of Japan caught markets off guard by tweaking its yield curve control policy. This allows the yield on the 10-year JGB to move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target. This caused the Yen to appreciate by 4% against the US Dollar. Song Seng Wun, Economist, at CIMB Private Banking tells us the implications of this.Image credit: Shutterstock
US equities finished higher with the S&P breaking a four-day streak of declines. In monetary policy, the main story is Japan's move to fight inflation. In a decision expected out next year, the BoJ surprised the markets by widening the 10-year JGB band by 25 bp. Although Haruhiko Kuroda stressed the increase should not be seen as a rate hike or a review of yield curve controls, it still removes an anchor on global yields. Tesla shares drag down the auto industry amidst Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition. In China, officials continued to talk down the severity of Covid and media reports express confidence in achieving normalcy by spring.
The Bank of Japan's surprise move to change its policy and allow the 10-year JGB yield to move 50 basis points on either side of its 0% target, caught global markets off guard. In this deep dive, Weston Nakamura tells us what we're all missing in the central bank's slightly more hawkish tone. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and there's no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado. Weston tells Jack that the BOJ's decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year. Weston argues that if Japanese investors with capital abroad repatriate their capital and sell foreign assets, the U.S. Treasury market could be in for a wild ride, one similar to the chaos in U.K. gilt market in September. Filmed the afternoon of December 20, 2022. Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3WqOONm - Click here to open an account with Saxo - Today we look at the Bank of Japan shocking markets overnight with a surprise shift in its yield-curve-control policy, as it lifted the cap on 10-year JGB's to 50 basis points from 25 basis points. The JPY rose in stepwise fashion together with the jump in longer Japanese yields and global yields were also impacted, taking risk sentiment lower. In commodities, we discuss metals and natural gas. In equities, we discuss the outlook for European defense stocks, including Rheinmetall and cover upcoming earnings reports from Nike, where the bar of market expectations looks high, and from FedEx, where the bar of expectations is quite low. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
APAC stocks traded lower across the board with the broader risk profile hit by the BoJ's unexpected tweak to its Yield Curve ControlBoJ tweaked YCC in which it widened the 10yr yield band to +/- 0.5% (prev. +/-0.25%) and unexpectedly announced it is to increase bond purchases to JPY 9tln/m (prev. JPY 7.3tln/m) in Q1; Kuroda presser due at 06:30GMT/01:30ESTJPY soared on the BoJ decision to tweak its YCC, with USD/JPY slumping from levels around 137.00 to lows below 133.00, Nikkei 225 closed lower by 2.5%, and JGB yields spiked higherUS and European equity futures were hit by the BoJ's unexpected move; ES Mar'23 -0.9% and Euro Stoxx 50 Mar'23 -1.4%Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, US Building Permits, EZ Consumer Confidence, speech from ECB's Kazimir, supply from the UKRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Dollar/Yen has rebounded from the lows while super long term JGBs have been volatile. The front end of the USDJPY basis curve continues to tighten while the long end has widened. The Kishida Administration has announced tax hikes and a bigger defense budget, which could increase volatility in the JGB market. Japanese investors also face challenges with managing their JGB and USDJPY positions ahead of year-end. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews Japanese lifers first half fiscal year 2022 earnings and connects them to October securities flow data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
JGB yields have been little changed as of late, while in contrast, spot Dollar/Yen has fallen sharply, and Yen cross-currency basis has tightened off the wides. Japanese investors have been unloading their foreign bond holdings, while demand for JPY bond asset swaps has been strong among foreigners, which has caused price action into the end of the year to be a little unusual. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews 2022 and gives his outlook for 2023, including changes in JGB issuance. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
Dollar/Yen has started to trend downward, trading on either side of the 140-mark. JGB yields have been stable thanks to the Bank of Japan's yield control operations, while cross-currency basis has tightened amidst foreigners' asset swap buying and Japanese investors' foreign bond selling. It is unusual for Dollar/Yen basis to tighten significantly ahead of year end, but 2022 has been an unusual year in many respects and basis is no exception. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the September USTIC and October JSDA, along with MoF investing flows data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
The Deadcast concludes its dive into the Grateful Dead's entanglement with technology, exploring Jerry Garcia's digital graphics obsession, how Dead Head online communities helped shape the emergent internet, lyricist John Perry Barlow's manifestoes, & more. Guests: Paul Martin, Mary Eisenhart, David Gans, Steve Silberman, Bob Bralove, Dan English, Doug Oade, Christian Crumlish, Charlie Miller, John Markoff, Erik Davis, Michael CaloreSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Dollar/Yen and Yen rate have fallen from the highs while cross-currency basis has tightened and the Nikkei Average continues to recover. The front end of the JGB yield curve stabilized after the government announced it will increase issuance of JGBs to fund Prime Minister Kishida's second supplementary budget. Separately, Japanese bank and life insurance companies are releasing their H1 FY22 earnings results, which include details of losses incurred on foreign bond holdings in the recent global bond market rout. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews cross border security investment flows during September and October and sets forth his outlook for the month of November. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
The Deadcast explores the Grateful Dead's long-term cosmic entanglement with the California technology world & the architecture of the internet itself, featuring biomusic pioneer Ned Lagin, Dead Heads at the Stanford AI Lab & Apple, sonic heroes from Alembic & Meyer Sound, & more.Guests: Ned Lagin, Ron Wickersham, Susan Wickersham, Daniel Kottke, John Meyer, Helen Meyer, Paul Martin, Andy Moorer, Steve Silberman, Erik Davis, John MarkoffSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
USDJPY is off the highs as the Dollar gives back a portion of recent gains. JGB yields reflect the strength of the Bank of Japan's yield control operations as an increase in buybacks last week helped the super long sector recover. USDJPY basis has tightened on both strong demand for JGBs from foreigner investors and Japanese investor selling of foreign bonds. Amidst the market volatility in G10 rate markets and the October BoJ meeting non-event, we expect the Tokyo market to reflect a mixture of JGB flows among Japanese and foreign investors, foreign companies' JPY Samurai bond issuance, and Japanese companies' overseas investing activities. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects H2 FY22 Japanese life insurance company investment plans, discusses the Samurai bond market, and summarizes high points from the BoJ's October policy meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.
We present an encore of the Deadcast's Denmark episode from earlier this year to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Europe ‘72's proper release, as well as to get you ready for (or debrief you from) the Meet-Up At The Movies presentation of the Dead's historic Danish telecast.Guests: Sam Cutler, Steve Parish, Mountain Girl, Donna Jean Godchaux MacKay, Ben Haller, Alan Trist, Jim Sullivan, Gijsbert Hanekroot, John Morris, Sam Field, David Lemieux, MC Taylor, Lars Bennike, Bjørn Lindstrøm, Hans Francke, Jens Skovby, Palle Lykke, Lars Movin, Graeme Boone, Shaugn O'DonnellSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The Grateful Deadcast celebrates Bobby Weir's 75th with the birthday boy himself, exploring Weir's world with Don Was, Jeff Chimenti, members of the expanded Wolfpack, & orchestral collaborator Giancarlo Aquilanti. Guests: Bobby Weir, Don Was, Jeff Chimenti, Barry Sless, Giancarlo AquilantiSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Featured in this podcast are Ayako Fujita, Benjamin Shatil and Yuka Mera. We expect the BoJ to adjust its YCC policy in March next year, Kuroda's last meeting before the end of his term, alongside broadening inflation momentum. But until that time, policy faces a tension between maintaining a functioning JGB market and limiting the impact of dovish monetary policy on currency stability. We do not expect the BoJ to provide any advance signal ahead of tweaking policy, but think every meeting from hereon is probably live. We do not expect a change at the October meeting, but nor is it a zero-probability event. This podcast was recorded on Oct 21, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4231649-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4223217-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4217274-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Ace 50The Deadcast welcomes Bobby Weir to honor the 50th anniversary of his 1972 solo debut “Ace” (& its forthcoming reissue), made with an all-star backing band that happened to be the Grateful Dead, featuring archival audio with “Ace” lyricists John Perry Barlow & Robert Hunter.Guests: Bobby Weir, Donna Jean Godhaux-MacKay, Don WasSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.