Podcasts about Boj

Oil crashed on peace, stocks crashed anyway, a 557% profit was a "miss," and a hedge fund called Situational Awareness got blindsided. A week of maximum noise — and the three signals underneath that actually matter.Hypernormal Times on Substack. For your capital markets training needs, visit my friends at Finance Talking.The market fell a fifth and rose a fifth in the same week, on no change in the facts — so this episode strains out the churn and holds up what actually changed.We start with the noise: a ceasefire nobody signed, "peace broke out and stocks crashed anyway," and the record round-trip driven by a leverage unwind — including the week's best story, the hedge fund Situational Awareness, run by the ex-OpenAI author of the famous "see-it-coming" AI essay, getting caught spectacularly unaware and dumping its book to Citadel at the bottom, right before those shares ripped. Then the three signals worth keeping: the AI reckoning turned out to be a sorting, not a crash (Microsoft and Amazon proved the return; Meta didn't); the feared AI glut is, at the physical level, a shortage — one now capping Apple's revenue and turning the Bank of Japan hawkish; and the great bifurcation went concrete, with China floating its own memory champion (CXMT, +472%), building its own chip-making machines, and pulling a piece of Tesla across the US–China line. Plus a Fed chair whose silence the bond market repriced as a credibility shock.Never investment advice.In this episodeWhy the week's violent round-trip was noise, not signal — and how to tellSituational Awareness vs Citadel: a thesis meets a balance sheet at the bottomThe 557% profit that counted as a miss — and the bar detaching from realityThe reckoning as a sorting: Microsoft/Amazon prove the return, Meta doesn't; "free cash flow" runs the tapeThe AI glut that's actually a shortage — Apple can't get chips, and the BoJ turns hawkishThe great bifurcation: CXMT +472%, China's own lithography, Tesla splitting off ChinaWarsh holds, the 30-year hits a 19-year high, and the market calls his bluffAI bubble, AI reckoning, is AI a bubble, AI 2008 vs dot-com, Situational Awareness hedge fund, Leopold Aschenbrenner, Citadel, SK Hynix earnings, 557% profit, Microsoft Azure earnings, Amazon cloud, Meta capex, Apple chip shortage, memory shortage 2028, Samsung, CXMT IPO, China semiconductors, ASML lithography, Tesla SpaceX merger, Kevin Warsh Fed, 30-year Treasury yield, Bank of Japan hawkish, macro podcast, markets podcast, HyperNormal Report, Jeremy McKeown.This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

This week, our Global FX Strategists unpack the fallout from the FOMC for the dollar, as well as implications from another round of Japan FX intervention against a BoJ hold. We also look at AUD's reaction to recent local data and implications from the BoE meeting for GBP.   Speakers: Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategy Kunj Padh, Global FX Strategy    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5388109-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5390436-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the fallout for the FX market from this week's Fed, BoJ and BoE policy meetings. How have the latest developments impacted the outlook for USD/JPY?

Markets start to question Fed credibility, fiscal issues stay in focus for the UK, while Japan's monetary and FX policy come into the spotlight. We discuss the Fed Chair's mixed messages and preview next week's labour market release. In our special UK segment, we reflect on the BoE's "dovish" hold and discuss fiscal plans under the new PM. In Asia, the BOJ and JPY intervention are in focus, and we also look ahead to the RBI and regional CPI data ahead. Chapters: US: 02:49 Europe: 13:00, Japan: 25:19, Rest of Asia: 30:08.

The US and Israel are considering a land blockade of Iran to increase economic pressure, senior Israeli sources told The Telegraph. The plan could involve urging neighbouring countries and regional partners to restrict border crossings and trade.Iran's IRGC said two offending tankers were hit and stopped, and four offending tankers quickly changed course. Additionally, the IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and any transit and movement will be possible only with the coordination of the IRGC Navy. BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected, through an 8-1 vote, with board member Takata the dissenter who proposed a 25bps rate hike. Little move seen in Japanese assets following the announcement and Governor Ueda press conference. US equity futures are firmer, with Amazon surging pre-market (+12%) after reporting faster AWS growth.Fixed income benchmarks are mixed and way off best levels as energy prices rebound following recent reporting of a land blockade and hit tankers (Brent +0.3%).Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian GDP (May), US University of Michigan Final (Jul). Speakers include BoE's Pill, Fed's Hammack, Logan & Kashkari. Earnings from AbbVie & Chevron. Scope Ratings update on Switzerland.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the yen has substantially overshot equilibrium and the US views excess yen volatility as unhealthy, while he added that the yen is very undervalued and that Japan may have intervened in currency markets on Thursday.Nikkei sources said Japan's government and BoJ intervened in the FX market yesterday by buying yen and selling dollars, while desks conducted rate checks.BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected, through an 8-1 vote, with board member Takata the dissenter who proposed a 25bps rate hike; little move in Japanese assets on the announcement.After-hours US earnings saw Amazon (AMZN) rise almost 10% whilst Apple (AAPL) fell over 6%.APAC stocks were mostly higher following the tech-inspired momentum stateside; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8%.Looking ahead, highlights include French/Italian/EU Inflation Flash (Jul), German Unemployment Rate (Jul), Canadian GDP (May), US University of Michigan Final (Jul). Speakers include BoJ Governor Ueda, BoE's Pill, Fed's Hammack, Logan & Kashkari. Earnings from AbbVie, Chevron, Credit Agricole & NatWest. Scope Ratings update on Switzerland rating.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Please join Sphia Salim for a discussion with the global rates team on the implications of all the central bank decisions taken this week. We will review the exceptionally uncertain Fed meeting and debate the outlook for 2y & 10y UST yields. We will also discuss the takeaways from the guidance provided by the BoE and BoJ. The call took place on Friday, July 31st, 2026.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Send us Fan MailYen surges after suspected Japanese intervention. BoJ keeps rates steady, signals further hikes ahead. BoE stays on hold, more members support a hike. Wall Street rebounds amid tech gains, gold stays above $4,000.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD 

Mýtus, že opálená kůže je zdravá kůže, stále převládá. Sluneční paprsky sice potřebujeme pro dobrou náladu i vnitřní biorytmus, ale jeho UV složka patři mezi karcinogeny první třídy. Jak se staví odborná dermatologie k radám ezo-influencerů o „adaptaci na slunce“ bez ochranných krémů a jaké jsou reálné možnosti naší pokožky?Společně s dermatoložkou se podíváme na to, jak kůže reaguje na sluneční záření, proč nestačí spoléhat na mýty o jarní adaptaci a jak správně číst UV index. Zjistíš, co obnáší vědomá fotoprotekce, jak je to s tvorbou vitamínu D a na co si dát pozor při výběru opalovacích krémů.▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ Timestamps ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬00:00:31 – Mýtus o jarní adaptaci pokožky na sluneční záření bez SPF00:05:33 – Slunce jako dobrý sluha, ale špatný pán a UV záření mezi karcinogeny00:15:38 – Boj s dezinformacemi ezo-influencerů a osvětový projekt Pihacheck00:21:34 – Základní pilíře ochrany před UV zářením a význam UV indexu00:28:08 – Rizika spálení v dětství a specifika ochrany dětské pokožky00:33:11 – Výběr správného SPF, mýty o toxicitě kosmetiky a minerální vs. chemické filtry00:39:13 – Vliv SPF na tvorbu vitamínu D a mýty kolem jeho střádání ze slunce00:42:35 – Fotoaging, nejlevnější anti-age péče a nebezpečí UV lamp u nehtařů00:47:14 – Shrnutí základu vědomé fotoprotekce a správná reaplikace SPF přípravků

Send us Fan MailDollar slides after Fed decision, rebounds amid Middle East tensions. Markets assign 75% chance of a September rate hike. BoE and BoJ decisions put the pound and yen in focus. Wall Street traders keep gaze locked on earnings results.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD 

Vydajte sa s nami po stopách spisovateľa, ktorý vedel, že aj obyčajný život môže byť veľkým dobrodružstvom. Jeho nadšenie brať život vážne a poriadne ho žiť môže byť nákazlivé. A o to mu zrejme v jeho najhravejšej a najosobnejšej knihe Životoholik šlo. A že sa vám do čítania Chestertona nechce? Bojíte sa,že je príliš náročný? Prekladateľ Michal Švec vás presvedčí, že tieto obavy sa dajú preklenúť a ostane len čistá radosť z toho, čo čitateľovi ponúka Gilbert Keith Chesterton. Knižky, o ktorých sa v podcaste rozprávame, kúpite v e-shope denníka Postoj. Životoholik (Postoj, 2026) - https://obchod.postoj.sk/produkt/zivotoholik Muž, ktorý bol Štvrtok (Postoj, 2023) - https://obchod.postoj.sk/produkt/muz-ktory-bol-stvrtok Večný človek (Postoj, 2020,2026) - https://obchod.postoj.sk/produkt/vecny-clovek Táto relácia vznikla vďaka našim podporovateľom. Pridajte sa k nim, prosím, teraz aj vy na: https://podpora.postoj.sk/potrebujeme-vas?referral_source=youtube&referral_campaign=youtube&utm_source=youtube. Ďakujeme.

27/7 Futures in rosso: l'onda del sell-off sui chip si estende in Asia in attesa delle trimestrali Big Tech. Mix di fattori, timori di autosufficienza cinese tra nuovi chip (CXMT), macchine a litografia (The Information) e i finanziamenti circolari di Nvidia. Siamo entrati in una nuova fase AI. Per MS è un buy the dip sui semiconduttori. Steve Eisman (Big Short): il mercato sottostima i rischi Ai. JPM: segnale buy S&P500 da nostro modello proprietario. SpaceX -50% da massimo Ipo. Settore finanziario nuovi massimi. Fed: per Citadel potrebbe alzare domani. Chances mercato al 38%. Brent ancora in calo su stallo raid, giù anche dollaro, Treasuries, oro argento e Bitcoin. Apple nuovo record storico, supera Nvidia in market cap. Nvidia lancia l'alleanza industriale per la cybersecuirty Ai, Microsoft un nuovo modello cyber che fa concorrenza ad Anthropic, Amazon fa concorrenza a Starlink. ***Questo episodio è offerto da ⁠Scalable Capital ⁠Apri un conto con Scalable Capital e inizia a ricevere il 2,5% di interessi* sui tuoi risparmi:  https://it.scalable.capital/broker-online?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=qualityclick&utm_campaign=broker&c_id=QC59486e7f67706c777b517d435049607362766c747c5aS7541p&utm_term=983 Messaggio pubblicitario. Tasso lordo annuo variabile sulla liquidità depositata nel conto deposito non vincolato, composto da tasso base collegato al Tasso di Deposito BCE e tasso bonus discrezionale. Liquidità allocata presso banche partner e fondi monetari riconosciuti. Foglio informativo e condizioni su scalable.capital. Investire comporta dei rischi*** Sell-off in Asia. Nikkei -4% con Softbank e Kioxia, Kospi -10% con ribassi doppia cifra SK Hynix e Samsung. Attesa per Politburo cinese e BOJ. Europa in rosso, attesa trimestrali e inflazione venerdì. Governo: sconto 17 centesimi su gasolio. Costa 125 milioni di euro. Focus su risiko e possibile componente cash nella fusione per incorporazione tra Mps e Bpm. LVMH: salgono le vendite, gli Usa compensano Europa e Paesi del Golfo.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami and Danny Moses discuss rising global yields and stress points in markets, focusing on Japan's weakening yen, deteriorating bond market, and risks around Japan's role as a major US Treasury holder and potential carry-trade unwind, with BOJ and Fed meetings ahead. They note August's tendency toward volatility and how attention may shift from strong earnings to macro concerns as AI-driven CapEx pressures free cash flow at hyperscalers, raising valuation questions and fears of open-source competition. They preview key earnings including Apple (seen as a defensive AI conduit despite a rich valuation), Microsoft, Meta, and major energy firms, which may post strong results but avoid political blowback. They discuss mixed consumer signals from Capital One, AmEx, and retailers, reiterate a constructive longer-term view on gold tied to Fed policy, and share updates on Moses's podcasts, Substack work, and a veterans charity event. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Roberto Rios aka Peruvian Bull, is a macro analyst and author of the highly acclaimed "Dollar Endgame" series. Reporting on Japan as the canary in the coal mine for the global economy.› https://x.com/peruvian_bull› https://www.youtube.com/@peruvian_bullPARTNERS

Preview of the Fed, BOE, BOJ and MAS and a segment discussing market risks with special guest Vijay Sundaram, Global Head of Front Office Risk & Control. We discuss the Fed and BOE remaining on-hold, US core PCE inflation easing, and the latest on UK fiscal plans. Central banks in Japan and Singapore are in focus; we think both are likely to pause, but it is a much closer call for MAS than BOJ. Special guest: Vijay Sundaram, our Global Head of Front Office Risk, speaks about market risks and how risk management is evolving. Chapters: US: 02:27, Europe: 09:21, Japan: 16:28, Rest of Asia: 20:40.

Send us Fan MailMarkets face a pivotal week as major central bank decisions from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ, alongside blockbuster earnings and key economic data, take center stage. We break down the main events likely to move forex, commodities, and equity markets. Gain insight into potential market direction and the key levels to watch in this week's market outlook.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD 

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- What's your view of the dilemma of adherence to the self-imposed fiscal rules against the need to fund defence/infrastructure commitments. Shaun, I'd be interested in your view of the 10-year gilt yield, nudging 5.1%. How much of this rise is down to the Middle East situation and oil price, and how much of it to Spendy Andy? I guessed 5% was when it starts to break so we shouldn't have to wait long. I wonder if we'll have to have an emergency budget? The lack of volatility and tight ranges, could be a "hint" that the BOJ has finally realised that their interventions so far have only donated money to a few players - and now they could be on the offer - ready to destroy USDJPY when others start the move down - first time clever intervention ?

US Secretary of State Rubio said the US has many options to deal with Iran if it refuses to negotiate. He also stated that China is displeased with Iran's actions in the Strait and Iran is in a lot of trouble.Iranian Interior Ministry spokesperson said there is currently no ongoing negotiation and that it may only involve the exchange of messages, Mehr News reported.BoJ officials are reportedly considering hiking rates faster than every 6 months due to the JPY's weakness adding to upside inflation risks, Bloomberg reported. Initial weakness was seen in JGBs while JPY saw fleeting strength. US equity futures trades with losses, with underperformance in the NQ ahead of Tesla and Alphabet earnings AMC.Fixed income benchmarks hold steady despite the surge in energy prices (Brent +4.8%).Looking ahead, highlights include US MBA Mortgage Applications, Supply from the US, Earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, and IBM.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In this podcast, Guy Ertz, Deputy Global CIO, and Gurminder Singh, Investment Strategist, Forex, discuss the outlook for the Japanese yen and the catalysts that could support a recovery.Is a U.S.–Japan joint FX intervention on the horizon?Can the Government Pension Investment Fund reshape the yen's trajectory?What's the BOJ's next move and how will it shape the yen's outlook?Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the second part of our economic roundtable, Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya join Seth Carpenter to discuss how central banks are balancing sticky inflation, resilient growth and regional policy trade-offs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again today, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, the Chief U.S. Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist, and on the other side of the world, Chetna Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist. Yesterday, we talked about what's supporting growth around the world, especially AI spending in the U.S. and some government spending in Europe, and Asia's role in making all of this happen. Today, we're going to try to dig deeper and go into policy. It's Tuesday, July 21st at 10 am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since the last time we did this in mid-April, I will say the debate around central banks has probably become more complicated. Global growth has held up, probably better than many people expected. And inflation, which picked up a lot, started to recede. But it has not gone away. And some of the forces helping to shape the economy, the AI spending, government spending, that possible upswing in manufacturing, that could keep demand strong, and it might keep pushing inflation higher. So, the question today is, if growth remains resilient, how much room really do central banks have to navigate? Mike, let me start with you because your call for the Fed here in the U.S. is out of consensus, or at least at odds with where the market is pricing things. We talked about the demand going from AI. You pointed out that imports are actually limiting how much domestic demand there is. So, what is the underlying story for inflation in the U.S.? And what does it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: So, our view is that inflation will come down in the U.S. So, we think disinflation will be driven by some payback in energy prices. Some payback from tariffs, which have pushed up goods prices over the last year. And some further diminishment in housing-related inflation, namely shelter. So, we think on a broad-based perspective, inflation has already peaked and will start moving lower. And we think we've seen evidence of this in recent inflation prints. A risk to that, though, is from the demand side of the economy and AI-related inflation in two parts. One, higher software prices, chipflation. So, the pass-through of some of the AI pricing components. Fortunately, here, they're about less than 1 percent of the consumer basket. So, we don't think that there's a great risk, a strong risk, a high risk of AI-related inflation in the consumer bundle. I think the real risk is that maybe we underestimate broad-based demand, animal spirits. And so, you might just see a broad-based increase in inflation from stronger demand. That'll be a little bit harder to see in real times. But our expectation is that inflation moves lower to about 3 percent, by the end of this year and closer to 2.5 percent next year. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks, Mike. And in fact, the most recent inflation report that we just got confirms your perspective that inflation should be coming down. And so, I guess the question then remains: What would it take for the Fed to hike this year if inflation has come down like we've seen? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the answer there is that inflation wouldn't come down in line with our expectations. So, if the view is that energy prices, tariffs, and shelter inflation should provide plenty of offset and bring inflation down, I think the answer is you don't get payback. Explicitly, core goods prices stay elevated. Maybe we get ongoing disruptions in the Middle East that push energy prices higher and create second-round effects. So, I think inflation just lingering at elevated levels could mean the Fed gets brought in to raise rates in September or later this year. We think if they're patient enough, they'll see enough disinflation to keep them on the sidelines. But the risk is disinflation forecast is too optimistic, inflation stays firm, the Fed needs to raise rates. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, what about for you and the ECB? They've already raised interest rates once this year. I think you've got a forecast for them raising interest rates again in September. What could make you wrong about that forecast? What's going to make you convinced that you're right about that forecast? And is there a similar tension that the ECB is wrestling with that Mike talked about for the Fed? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah. I mean, starting with the last part of your question, I think no doubt, very similar tension. Just that, of course, it's less obvious. It's essentially a nuanced European version instead of the loud American version that we always stereotypically think the world looks like. So, essentially, we have here clearly not an AI boom. That, I mean, there's no question. And we have discussed that yesterday. Still, there is certainly the notion that the world demand is not really weak, and some of this will also arrive in Europe. And so, you have that tension between maybe there's more resilience than we had thought, and so inflation will not come down through to slack as much. And so, we might actually add something here in terms of monetary restrictiveness. Now, the other thing that is often forgotten, even though it's blatantly obvious, the starting point is just different. The ECB is running neutral monetary policy by all accounts. I mean, you could say 2 percent is neutral, and now they are 2.25. But, you know, there are ranges of uncertainty around any estimate. And the latest that they published runs – goes from 1.75 to 2;2.5. So basically, even if they were to increase rates to 2.5 in September, you could go with the microphone around the governing council, and you would probably find a lot of people saying, "Well, this is still a neutral policy." That's probably not the case for the U.S. So, I guess this matters here for that debate too. Seth Carpenter: All right. Yesterday we talked about lots of different things, but for Europe, we brought up fiscal policy. How do you think about fiscal policy and how it affects monetary policy? And so, I'm thinking about two channels. One, how much does the ECB care that if they keep pushing up interest rates, they're going to increase the debt service burden for countries that are already facing high debt costs? And second, is fiscal policy going to be the extra impetus for inflation that forces even more rate hikes from the ECB? Jens Eisenschmidt: I guess it depends on who you ask. Certainly, more concerned members in the governing council that would point to exactly that fiscal stimulus as a reason why interest rates have to be increased further from here. The other answer I would give is – probably for now at least, the view on fiscal policy is really model-based. You look at what type of increase in interest rate gets you essentially more fiscal restraint because there's an increase in interest rate bill and so less spending somewhere else. And that gets you basically less stimulus or less growth, I mean, very roughly speaking. I don't think it's a major concern for now. We haven't reached yet interest rates where this would start to play a role. I guess, again, Europe being fragmented as it is, with all the political risk that's around the corner. Think about the elections in France and Italy and Spain next year. That will very likely find itself expressed in spreads. And so, the higher the interest rates are, the larger the spreads could become. Seth Carpenter: So, for each of you, there's clearly a role for inflation. One of the risks we'll talk about maybe is inflation expectations and how maybe there's a big shift in what's going on with inflation. But Chetan, that brings me to you and Asia, because one economy where there unquestionably has been a fundamental shift in inflation and inflation expectation over the past several years is Japan. The Bank of Japan is on this normalization path where they're raising interest rates. Interest rates had been negative and then zero, and now they're gradually raising things up. Inflation has come back to Japan. Markets are looking at what the Bank of Japan is likely to do. Can you tell us a little bit about what our view is for the Bank of Japan this year and next? And what might make them hike interest rates faster than we think? And is there any risk that in fact they hike interest rates slower than we think? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we are expecting BoJ to hike twice from here. The first rate hike is coming up in December of this year, and then another one coming up in June of next year. And then we think that, you know, the underlying inflation trend in Japan is not really that strong. So, while market pricing is for about three more rate hikes instead of two that we are building in our base case. And some of the macro investors are even talking about four more rate hikes. We think the underlying inflation trend warrants a caution and BoJ to go slowly than what the market is pricing in and what the macro investors are saying in. And the key part of our framework on thinking about Japan's inflation is that bulk of the explanation to inflation rise in Japan lies in currency moves. And secondarily, you can look at also the other drivers are more from supply side, which is higher energy prices or food prices. Whereas it's not driven so much by demand. To elaborate further on why it is not driven by demand, when you look at Japan's consumption trend, and if you index it to hundred at pre-COVID levels in September [20]19 then it's currently about 101; i.e., that it's just about 1 percent up over the last seven years. So that's a very tepid trend of consumption demand. And therefore, we don't think that BoJ needs to rush into hike in a more aggressive pace going forward. Seth Carpenter: So, there is this fundamental shift, but boy, it's not on a tear, and so the BoJ can take its time. You know, Chetan, it's hard to wrap up a conversation about the global economy without talking about China. I get the sense that there's not a lot going on with monetary policy, but we did just see a soft Q2 GDP print. So, against that backdrop, what should we be expecting in terms of policy? Is there any monetary policy coming? Or is there going to be some fiscal expansion? Or is China just sort of stuck in this lower gear? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we were also surprised by the soft GDP print. But when you look into the data, actually, it was interestingly doing well on exports. And I mentioned earlier about how the global CapEx trend is helping Asia. It's definitely helping China too. But at the same time, China's domestic demand turned out to be quite weak. And particularly in the areas where we think that the policy response can be providing some help, i.e., infrastructure spend, was also very weak. And therefore, we are expecting that in the back half of the year, you will see the government taking up some fiscal expansion. Not new stimulus announcement, but whatever they had budgeted. They have enough room within that to utilize that budget and actually increase that fiscal spending towards infrastructure. We have about 2 trillion RMB worth of funds available for the government to go ahead and spend in the second half. And then lift that growth trend, which has dipped to 4.3 percent in second quarter to back to 4.6 percent in the back half of the year. Seth Carpenter: You know what? Maybe that's a great place for us to leave it. We've gone around the world again today, but this time focusing much more on policy. In the U.S., the Fed is facing this interesting situation. We think inflation is coming down. The last CPI print went in our favor. And so as a result, our forecast is that the Fed doesn't change policy at all this year. But it's going to come down to the data, and in particular, whether or not Mike and his team are right in terms of where inflation is going. In Europe, the ECB has already raised interest rates once this year. Jens and team are looking for another interest rate hike. The ECB really does seem more sensitive to inflation coming from the energy shock, but there are lots of other crosscurrents that they're paying attention to as well. And then the other major developed market central bank, the Bank of Japan, is on this normalization path. They are in the process of raising interest rates, but Chetan pointed out to us that the growth rate is such that they don't have to be in any sort of hurry, and they can take their time. So, with that, Mike, Jens, Chetan, thank you so much for helping us connect all of these dots. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors to discuss shifting Fed communication under Kevin Warsh, including a push away from strong forward guidance like recent comments from Waller. Emons distinguishes disinflation from deflation, noting a negative month-to-month CPI driven by energy declines but warning energy has already rebounded, making expectations volatile. He highlights “funflation” in categories like recreation and food away from home alongside broad underlying price pressures. The group debates whether AI is inflationary, with Emons pointing to supply-constrained memory prices and AI-related investment as drivers, and discusses IBM's sharp drop after clients shifted CapEx toward servers, storage, and memory. They also cover Middle East Strait closures adding an oil war premium, positioning risks across crude, rates, and equities, yen weakness and potential BOJ action, and heightened volatility and leverage in a “Parabolic Seven” chip/memory cohort that could trigger broader market rotation and tightening financial conditions. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

The Iran deal is dead again, ships are getting hit in the Gulf, and the ten year is back above four point five five. Marty and John sort through the latest Middle East escalation, why both sides actually want the conflict to keep going, and what it means for oil, LNG, and bond volatility. They dig into Japan's thirty year yield highs and the delicate balance the BOJ is walking, Mohamed El-Erian vouching for Bessent's industrial policy in the New York Times, and why the MOVE index might matter more than the absolute rate level. They also cover Circle's bank charter approval, the OpenUSD consortium bringing Wall Street and Silicon Valley together around the digital dollar, and the growing turf war over who gets to run America's strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Ethics concerns from Senate Democrats remain the biggest obstacle for the upper chamber to pass a crypto market structure bill. Meanwhile, whales are still buying Ethereum ETFs. ~This Episode is Sponsored by OKX~ Trade RLUSD/XRP on OKX + claim the new user offer! Deposit $100 to get $50 ➜ https://bit.ly/OKXRP Use code: paulbarron *Terms Apply* 00:10 Sponsor: OKX 00:50 Tingling feeling 01:10 Scott Melker: Bottom building 02:40 Matt Hougan: Feels like 2019 05:10 BTC in 2019 06:20 ETFs rising 270K BTC in 30days 07:10 Vanguard bends the knee? 08:10 July rally? 08:30 Institution loading up on ETH 09:00 ETH/BTC in 2019 09:45 Robinhood chain ETH Unlock 11:30 Fed blames AI for inflation 12:50 Bloomberg: AI will take time 14:15 CNBC: Inflation vs politics 16:15 CNBC: The market vs the fed minutes 17:10 BOJ precursor? 17:45 Iran's leverage 18:20 Strategy earnings 18:45 CLARITY mess #crypto #bitcoin #ethereum ~Institutional Buying Spree?

Iran's IRGC fired at least two missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing a US official. It was separately reported that one was a Qatari LNG tanker. Brent Sept'26 +1.2%.Fars reported that the Qatari tanker attempted to pass through the Omani route and ignored repeated warnings.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue.Global tech stocks fall after Samsung Electronics (-6.9%) shares plummeted post-earnings; NQ -1%.DXY is incrementally firmer, JPY marginally outperforms after a Japanese official pushed back on reports that the government is urging the BoJ to lower interest rates.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Trade Balance (May), New York Fed SCE (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Canadian Trade Balance (May), Ivey PMI (Jun), EIA STEO (Jul), NATO Ankara Summit. Supply from the US. Speakers include BoE's Mann.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran's IRGC fired at least two missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing a US official. It was separately reported that one was a Qatari LNG tanker.Fars reported that the Qatari tanker attempted to pass through the Omani route and ignored repeated warnings.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue.KOSPI slumped following post-earnings losses in Samsung Electronics (-9.7%). Co. topped forecasts, but failed to calm fears surrounding elevated valuations. European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open.DXY is incrementally firmer, whilst the JPY marginally outperforms after a Japanese official pushed back on reports that the government is urging the BoJ to lower interest rates.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production (May), French Trade Balance (May), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Trade Balance (May), New York Fed SCE (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Canadian Trade Balance (May), Ivey PMI (Jun), EIA STEO (Jul), NATO Ankara Summit. Supply from the UK, Germany and the US. Speakers include BoE's Mann.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

VOV1 - Đồng Yên giảm xuống mức thấp nhất so với đồng đôla kể từ năm 1986, bất chấp việc Ngân hàng Trung ương Nhật Bản liên tục điều chỉnh tăng lãi suất nhằm bình thường hóa chính sách tiền tệ.Đà mất giá kéo dài của đồng nội tệ làm gia tăng sức ép đối với Chính phủ Nhật Bản và thị trường ngày càng kỳ vọng Tokyo sẽ phải can thiệp để ổn định tỷ giá. Theo dữ liệu của Sở giao dịch chứng khoán Luân Đôn (LSEG), đồng Yên có thời điểm giao dịch ở mức 162,19 yên đổi 1 USD, mức thấp nhất trong gần 4 thập kỷ. Diễn biến này ngay lập tức thu hút sự chú ý của thị trường, nhất là sau khi Nhật Bản đã chi hơn 11,7 nghìn tỷ yên từ cuối tháng 4 đến cuối tháng 5 để hỗ trợ đồng tiền.Bộ trưởng Tài chính Nhật Bản Satsuki Katayama khẳng định chính phủ sẵn sàng hành động nếu thị trường xuất hiện những biến động quá mức. Trong khi đó, Chánh Văn phòng Nội các Minoru Kihara cho biết chính phủ sẽ tiếp tục xây dựng một nền kinh tế ít phụ thuộc hơn vào biến động tỷ giá, đồng thời vẫn duy trì khả năng can thiệp thị trường ngoại hối khi cần thiết. Tuy nhiên, ông từ chối bình luận về mức tỷ giá hiện tại của đồng yên.Theo chuyên gia Ruth Carson tại Mỹ, việc đồng Yên liên tiếp lập mức thấp mới có thể làm gia tăng áp lực trong nước, qua đó khiến khả năng chính phủ phải hành động trở nên lớn hơn. Tuy nhiên, bà cho rằng hiệu quả của bất kỳ đợt can thiệp nào cũng chỉ mang tính tạm thời.“Điều mà thị trường đang quan tâm lúc này là khả năng Chính phủ Nhật Bản can thiệp vào thị trường ngoại hối. Câu hỏi không còn là liệu khả năng đó có tồn tại hay không, mà là nó đang ở gần đến mức nào và khi nào các nhà chức trách sẽ thực sự hành động. Cần lưu ý rằng tỷ giá USD/JPY không tăng vọt trong thời gian ngắn mà đã leo dần trong một thời gian. Tốc độ mất giá của đồng Yên là một trong những yếu tố quan trọng mà giới chức Nhật Bản theo dõi khi cân nhắc việc can thiệp. Nếu đồng Yên lao dốc nhanh và mạnh, thị trường chắc chắn sẽ phải đặt trong trạng thái cảnh giác cao.”Ngân hàng Trung ương Nhật Bản (BOJ) mới đây đây đã nâng lãi suất chuẩn lên 1%, mức cao nhất kể từ năm 1995, tiếp tục lộ trình bình thường hóa chính sách tiền tệ bắt đầu từ năm 2024. Tuy nhiên, động thái này vẫn chưa đủ để đảo ngược xu hướng suy yếu của đồng Yên, khi thị trường tiếp tục kỳ vọng Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ (Fed) sẽ duy trì mặt bằng lãi suất cao, qua đó giữ khoảng cách đáng kể về lãi suất giữa 2 nền kinh tế.Theo giới phân tích, chính chênh lệch lãi suất này đang thúc đẩy các giao dịch chênh lệch lãi suất (carry trade), trong đó nhà đầu tư vay đồng Yên với chi phí thấp để đầu tư vào các tài sản có lợi suất cao hơn ở nước ngoài, qua đó tạo thêm áp lực giảm giá đối với đồng tiền Nhật Bản.Cùng với diễn biến trên thị trường tiền tệ, lợi suất trái phiếu chính phủ Nhật Bản cũng tăng mạnh ở các kỳ hạn siêu dài. Trên thị trường chứng khoán, chỉ số Nikkei 225 có thời điểm tăng hơn 1.100 điểm, tương đương hơn 1,6%, nhờ lực mua quay trở lại đối với nhóm cổ phiếu trí tuệ nhân tạo và chất bán dẫn sau giai đoạn điều chỉnh. Tuy nhiên, áp lực chốt lời xuất hiện về cuối phiên khiến chỉ số thu hẹp đáng kể đà tăng và dao động trong biên độ hẹp.Đồng Yên yếu tiếp tục mang lại lợi ích cho các doanh nghiệp xuất khẩu và hỗ trợ thị trường chứng khoán Nhật Bản duy trì vùng đỉnh lịch sử. Tuy nhiên, mặt trái là chi phí nhập khẩu, đặc biệt đối với năng lượng và nguyên liệu được thanh toán bằng USD, tiếp tục tăng cao, làm gia tăng áp lực lạm phát và bào mòn sức mua của các hộ gia đình. Điều đó khiến việc ổn định tỷ giá trở thành một trong những thách thức kinh tế lớn nhất đối với Chính phủ Nhật Bản trong giai đoạn hiện nay./. Thu Hoài/VOV1Đồng yên lao dốc xuống mức thấp nhất trong 40 năm

Brian Szytel recaps markets on June 30, the last day of Q2, noting a strong first half for the Dow and the best Nasdaq quarter since 2020, with tech leading as the Dow rose 136 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% while the 10-year yield increased 8 bps. He highlights the Japanese yen at its weakest versus the dollar in over 40 years (~162), describing the yen carry trade and warning that BOJ interventions (about 11 trillion yen) and rate hikes could trigger volatility like August 2024. He also discusses rising system leverage, with margin debt up 54% year over year to about $1.4T and the risks of triple-leveraged single-stock ETFs for retail investors. Economic data included weaker consumer confidence, stronger JOLTS openings with steady quits, lower Chicago PMI, and softer Case-Shiller home prices (down monthly, +0.7% YoY). 00:00 Market Wrap Q2 Finale 01:32 Yen Weakness And Carry Trade 02:40 BOJ Intervention Risks 03:47 Leverage Rising In Markets 04:22 Margin Debt And Leveraged ETFs 05:51 Economic Data Roundup 06:48 Closing Thoughts And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dnes vás v jednoduché angličtině vezmu na některé z nejdůležitějších cest mého života. Připraveni? Tak pojďme na to!

After a busy week of central bank meetings, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Nico Jan Thiesen, Global Client Sales to discuss the implications for the FX markets. The Fed meeting impact on the dollar, the BoJ impact on the yen and the BoE impact on the pound are discussed as are the implications for EUR cross currency risks given the potential for moves in the US dollar.

A.M. Edition for June 16. President Trump's Iran deal may be providing relief for markets, but central bankers are not convinced the inflation spike is over yet, with the BOJ and RBA warning of higher prices for longer. Plus, WSJ tech reporter Georgia Wells details how AI is supercharging deepfake nudes, with more than half of teens having created a nude image, unleashing a new form of bullying amongst kids. And, Iran's World Cup team was ordered to leave the U.S. after their opening match against New Zealand. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's John J. Hardy Substack post for this podcast Today we look at a fresh stunning advance in US equities as we reapproach the all time highs for the main US indices, with a wild advance in SpaceX shares perhaps one key bit of the sentiment "tail" wagging the overall market dog as we also discuss why SpaceX shares may have risen so aggressively, even after hours yesterday. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the RBA and BoJ meetings and their impact, what we're watching for from the Fed, observations on the quality and sustainability of the US-Iran "deal" and more. Today' pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Andrew and Ben discuss the BOJ hiking rates 25bps to 1% without Governor Ueda and signaling more hikes ahead despite a 250% debt/GDP ratio, the European Parliament ratifying the US-EU trade deal 440-151 with 15% tariffs on most EU goods and preferential access for US farm produce, the Huntsman-Olin merger creating OlinHuntsman with $400 million in synergies, and growing skepticism around the Iran deal as bonds refuse to buy in and disagreements remain over Hormuz tolls, the nuclear timeline, and Israel's posture on Lebanon.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at the G7 summit in Evian, France, touting a win via the signing of a peace framework with Iran. The deal extends the ceasefire by 60 days and re-opens the Strait of Hormuz. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy is also at the summit and is due to meet leaders with EU membership discussions on the agenda. The BoJ lifts its benchmark interest rate to 1 per cent – its highest level in 30 years – seeking to normalise monetary policy and bring down inflation. Wall Street is in the green following news of the Middle East peace agreement. The Nasdaq surged 3 per cent on Monday while SpaceX shares clock a further 20 per cent in growth.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

US President Trump said the Hormuz deal is fully signed and that the Strait of Hormuz has already partially reopened, with a complete reopening expected on Friday.The US claim that Lebanon is not included in the memorandum of understanding is false, reports Fars, citing sources.Israeli artillery shelling was reported in southern Lebanon, while it was also reported that Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli soldiers in the region.APAC stocks were mixed, cooling from the relief rally seen on Monday; European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open.DXY is a touch firmer and trades around 99.70; JPY incrementally gains post-BoJ, which delivered a 25bps hike, as expected. The Aussie was little moved by the RBA's hawkish hold.Looking ahead, highlights include Italian Inflation Final (May), EU/German ZEW (Jun), US ADP Weekly, Import/Export Prices (May), Housing Starts (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Speakers including RBA's Bullock, BoJ's Uchida & ECB's Lane, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The BoJ hiked rates to 1.00%, as expected, while the RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35% following three consecutive 25bp rate hikes. Qatar is to restore half of its LNG output a month after the Strait of Hormuz opens, with output to reach 80% of full output within two months.US equity futures are mixed, while SPCX (+10.2% pre-market) looks set to surpass AMZN's market cap.DXY softer amid pressure in energy prices; JPY and AUD flat following rate announcements.Fixed income benchmarks are broadly higher, while JGBs fell as the BoJ paused purchase tapering from FY27.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, Import/Export Prices (May), Housing Starts (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Speakers including ECB's Lane, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Today, a look at risk sentiment in full swing after a successful SpaceX IPO on Friday and a stronger sense that the Iran war ceasefire may last long enough for shipping lanes to fully open in the Hormuz Strait, at least for a time. But while speculative energy remains high in equities, the broader macro picture is subdued, with little FX and rates volatility even as the new Kevin Warsh Fed marks the biggest shift at the Fed in a generation. This and much more, including the BoJ up tonight, on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy Links John's The FX Trader piece from today, discussing the technical situation in EURUSD and previewing the seven G-10 central bank meetings this week. A 20-minute CNBC interview with SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, where she talks a good game and even delivers the outlook for orbiting data centers with a straight face.  FT discusses the many forced buyers of SpaceX as the company has been fast tracked to join many major stock indices, the members of which enjoy passive inflows. The Wall Street Journal with the basic, but important discussion of how Kevin Warsh is set to alter the Fed's communication strategy (an important first step, but as emphasized on the podcast - there are much bigger questions afoot down the line.) About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.    

Česko navštívila lídryně běloruské opozice Svjatlana Cichanouská. Vítězka prezidentských voleb v roce 2020, které režim diktátora Alexandra Lukašenka zmanipuloval ve svůj prospěch, se setkala s prezidentem Petrem Pavlem a vládními i opozičními politiky. „Při každé její návštěvě dochází k propojování českého politického spektra v otázce Běloruska. Boj za svobodu a demokracii strany spojuje,“ věří Kryscina Šyjanok, ředitelka Kanceláře demokratických sil Běloruska.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how building investor optimism over a US-Iran deal and Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting as Fed Chair are likely to impact the USD. Will another BoJ rate hike be sufficient to trigger a reversal of JPY weakness?

This week, we expect on-hold decisions by the Fed, BOE, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, RBA and BI, but hikes by BOJ, BSP and CBC. We expect the Fed, BOE, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, RBA and BI to all keep policy rates unchanged. By contrast, we see the BOJ, BSP, and CBC as likely to hike at a measured pace. Statements will be non-committal across the board, and all eyes on Fed Chair Warsh who will likely try to be balanced. Chapters: US:1:53, UK:9:05, Japan:14:54, Asia:14:59.

Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's hospitalization is generating uncertainty among investors over the central bank's messaging at its policy meeting next week, even as they remain convinced officials will raise interest rates. Ueda is expected to miss the BOJ's meeting on June 15-16 and will refrain from casting a vote, but will express his views via a statement. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will serve as acting chair while another deputy, Shinichi Uchida, will host a post-meeting press conference. Ueda's absence is unlikely to shift expectations of a hike, but uncertainty is growing among market participants about how clearly Uchida will communicate at the press conference. The BOJ's cautious approach to rate hikes has been weighing on the yen due to the large interest rate differential between the US and Japan. We speak to Winnie Hsu, Bloomberg's Asia Equities Reporter Plus - SpaceX has made history with the biggest-ever IPO, sending it into the top ranks of the largest public companies and putting founder Elon Musk on the verge of becoming the world's first trillionaire. The company raised $75 billion in the IPO, pricing 555.6 million shares at $135 each, according to a statement on its website Thursday. SpaceX's IPO is more than double the size of Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion listing in 2019. Bloomberg TV hosts Haidi Stroud-Watts and Shery Ahn spoke to Jay Ritter, Warrington College of Business, The IPO Initiative Director & Emeritus Professor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Když v tomto týdnu vyrazil po sedmi letech na návštěvu Pchjongjangu čínský prezident Si Ťin-pching, nešlo o výjimečné prolomení izolace tamního diktátorského režimu. O přízeň Kim Čong-una se uchází i Moskva, kterou Severní Korea podporuje v její útočné válce proti Ukrajině. Výměnou za tuto pomoc dorazily do Severní Koreji ruské peníze - a s nimi i relativní hospodářský rozkvět. Bojí se Čína rostoucího vlivu Ruska v zemi, kterou tradičně považovala za svého vazala? Hostka: Tereza Novotná - výzkumná pracovnice institutu Europeum, která působí na Svobodné univerzitě Berlín Článek a další informace najdete na webu Seznam Zprávy. Sledujte nás na sociálních sítích X, Instagram, Threads nebo Bluesky. Náměty a připomínky nám můžete psát na e-mail zaminutusest@sz.cz Hlasujte pro náš podcast v anketě Podcast roku

Když v tomto týdnu vyrazil po sedmi letech na návštěvu Pchjongjangu čínský prezident Si Ťin-pching, nešlo o výjimečné prolomení izolace tamního diktátorského režimu. O přízeň Kim Čong-una se uchází i Moskva, kterou Severní Korea podporuje v její útočné válce proti Ukrajině. Výměnou za tuto pomoc dorazily do Severní Koreji ruské peníze - a s nimi i relativní hospodářský rozkvět. Bojí se Čína rostoucího vlivu Ruska v zemi, kterou tradičně považovala za svého vazala? A co chtějí Spojené státy?Hostka: Tereza Novotná - výzkumná pracovnice institutu Europeum, která působí na Svobodné univerzitě BerlínČlánek a další informace najdete na webu Seznam Zprávy.Sledujte nás na sociálních sítích X, Instagram, Threads nebo Bluesky. Náměty a připomínky nám můžete psát na e-mail zaminutusest@sz.czHlasujte pro náš podcast v anketě Podcast roku

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Truth Social post declaring Iran's military "completely defeated" and the deal effectively dead, today's CPI print with consensus at +4.2% headline, the BOJ rate hike path complicated by Governor Ueda's hospitalization, Super Micro's $7 billion dilutive stock offering to fund $39 billion in backlog orders, the building AI supply overhang from OpenAI's S-1, Google, SpaceX, and Perplexity's 2028 IPO plans, Claude Fable 5's release stabilizing tech, TSMC's 30% May sales rebound, and Oracle earnings tonight.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Toto je zkrácená verze (45 min). Celý díl (76 min) a bez reklam jen za 100,-/měsíc si můžeš pustit ⁠zde a odemknou další⁠: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5J9wjvldtRitxa6FVmqtsO?si=9fc7b15d41ef47c1Co se děje v mozku, když se rozpadne příběh o tom, kdo jsi. O neviditelné nemoci, dekreaci, posvátnu a hledání smyslu.Mluvíme o tom, co se stane, když přestaneš být režisérem vlastního filmu a začneš ubírat místo přidávat. Proč se tvůj mozek může chovat jednou jako demokrat, který si se svými přesvědčeními povídá, a podruhé jako král, který se stane tyranem. Jak meditace a psychedelika dokážou na chvíli udělat v hlavě anarchii, ze které může vyvstat něco nového. A proč pocit posvátna mění tvoje zdraví, i když v nic nevěříš.Je to díl o malém a velkém já, o tom, jak si dovolit cítit úplně všechno, a o jedné větě, která tě dokáže zasáhnout přímo do srdce. Pokud sám něčím procházíš, tohle je připomínka, že nejsi sám a že na tobě záleží.Zmíněné studie a jména: daraxonrazib a léčba metastatické rakoviny slinivky, santifikace (Krumrei a Manusko, 2025), studie „Affect, Connect and Grow“ o sebepřesahujících emocích, Dag Hammarskjöld, John Vervaeke, Sam Harris.Macromo:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Krevní testy jsou objektivní data ohledně vašeho zdraví. Nechte si udělat premium krevní testy na jednom ze 120 odběrových míst a výsledky dostanete pohodlně do Macromo aplikace. Můj nejoblíbenější aspekt je sledování dlouhodobých trendů v průběhu času, tak si objednej premium testy s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Macromo.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ a zadej kod "BWA" pro slevu!⁠⁠⁠Uplife.cz⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -Zadej kód "BWA" pro slevu 10% na vybrané zboží na eshopu ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.uplife.cz/brain-we-are/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Kam dále?Kup si jeden z našich online kurzů ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Průvodce Mozkem a Myslí⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, nebo ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Mentální Modely⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ a s kódem "BWA30" je tam SLEVA 30%!Zadej kód "BWA" pro slevu 10% na vybrané zboží na eshopu ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠uplife.cz⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠herbal-store.cz⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sledujte Brain We Are na sociálních sítích: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ( ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.instagram.com/brain_we_are⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ) nebo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook ⁠⁠⁠Minutáž:00:00 Úvod a co se dělo v poslední době05:53 Boj s chronickým únavovým syndromem (ME/CFS)09:53 Průlomová klinická studie léčby rakoviny slinivky14:21 Ztráta identity a opouštění zažitých rolí17:38 Koncept dekreace: Kdy přestat tvořit a začít ubírat21:49 Flexibilita mysli a napojení se na velké já26:05 Neduální probuzení a meditace podle Sama Harrise30:15 Je modlitba sebereferenční proces?33:55 Uzly přesvědčení: Mozek jako demokrat i tyran35:56 Vliv psychedelik na prediktivní mozek a ego42:50 Santifikace aneb pozitivní dopady vnímání posvátnaPřechod do VIP části- Radost z maličkostí a nabourávání rigidních modelů- Přijetí negativních emocí a technika noting- Studie: Jak úžas, vděčnost a soucit posilují smysl života- Transjektivní stav, relevance a hledání smyslu- Síla poezie a psychologické odložení zbraní- Tři metafory z buddhismu a daoismu (Zablácená cesta, Prázdná loď, Dva šípy)- Nedrancuj řeku: Dag Hammarskjöld a závěrečná báseň

The much stronger than expected US jobs report has had the obvious impact with front-end rates and the dollar stronger. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Chris Jakubowski, FX Institutional Sales to discuss the impact of the data going forward. How does this impact EUR/USD with the ECB expected to hike on 11th June? Has ECB pricing become overdone given recent economic data and how will the BoJ respond given the increased upside risks in USD/JPY?  

Uncertainty in the Middle East continues, as key central bank meetings approach. In the US, we examine the resilience of the economy and preview the upcoming CPI report. In Europe, we review recent inflation data and explain why we expect an ECB rate hike next week. In Japan, we preview the Q1 GDP report and take a close look at the BOJ. Across Asia, we share our take on key data coming out in Japan and China, touch on the Trump/Xi meeting and preview the central bank meeting in Indonesia next week. Chapters: US: 01:57, Japan: 11:56, Asia:15:50, Europe: 16:47.

Speciál s Oliverem Adámkem, autorem podcastové série Világoš, o maďarských volbách. Jaké změny se v Maďarsku staly od voleb? Bojí se Orbán a skončí v emigraci? Bude nová vláda znárodňovat majetek orbánovských oligarchů? Jaké změny ústavy připravuje nový premiér? Může být úspěšná země, ve které se po každých volbách mění ústava i systém? Jak se do maďarských voleb zapojila Tünde Bartha?Oliver nám popíše dezinformace, které vyprávěla na akci Fideszu, kde zastupovala Babiše.

“Japan panics. The rest of the world just hasn't realized it yet.” - Michael Gayed. The BOJ is losing the war to save the yen—and the reverse carry trade is about to trigger a global margin call.

The conclusion of our two-part episode from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit looks at structural shifts in Japan's economy and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's strategic growth agenda.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. This is Part 2 of our podcast from the Japan Summit.It's Friday, May 22nd at 8 am in Tokyo.I might stick with equities for just a minute, and Sho, just to dig deeper into the equity market. Jonathan expressed some of the bullishness. Anything you want to elaborate on where the real strong conviction on this positive view about Japanese equities is coming from?And then just as a warning, I'm going to come back to you and ask, if you're wrong, where could you be wrong? Because again, I think where we add value most to clients is not just giving a clear view, but also pressure testing that view.Sho Nakazawa: Our constructive view on Japan equities comes down to one simple point. Three structural changes are still continuing. So, the first is shifting macro environment. The combination of stable inflation and wage growth is a kind of phenomenon we have not seen, at least in my lifetime. It changes corporates and households' behavior, especially in terms of balance sheet management.And then secondly, the corporates profit improvements. We do not see it as a cyclical recovery. We see it as a structural change. As in the past, Japan corporates heavily relied on cost-cutting amid a deflationary environment. But today, price pass-through is improving, and the Japan corporates are becoming better positioned in growth profit in nominal growth environment.The third is corporate governance reform. Awareness of the capital efficiency has clearly increased. We continue to see share buybacks, dividends increase, and a portfolio restructuring as well. And on top of that, the Takaichi administration has made growth investment and crisis management investment as well.Of course, the Middle East situation is a source of noise. But structurally is a supporting factor for Japan equities secular bear market, which is a view Jonathan has held for very long time, has actually becoming stronger.But let me say that if I'm wrong, maybe I should be more bullish. In fact, the two key drivers here, if we assess the bear case scenario on Japan equities…So, one key driver should be the upside come from the investors constructive view on the Japan fiscal efficiency. And on a micro level, the corporate behavior changing faster than market expects. If we assess the recent rise in long-term yields, it reflect the concern to the Japan fiscal position and that BoJ behind the curve.It would weigh on the Japan equity valuation because it raises cost of capital and it weighs on the Japan equity valuation. But on the other hand, [the] Japanese government will disclose its basic policy in June. And if it could include a credible plan to improve Japan's fiscal positions, perhaps under Japan version of DOGE, which is led by Financial Minister Katayama-san, I think it could alleviate the excessive concern toward the Japan's fiscal position, and it [could] lower the cost of capital on Japan equities.You know, micro level, the corporates behavior is already changing, as I mentioned. But there's still plenty, you know, space for Japan corporates to utilize non-cash generating assets such as cash and deposit, which is equivalent to 60 percent of GDP. The ratio is far higher than our global peers.So, if Japan corporates move further to capital efficiency or portfolio restructuring or use some excess capital, I think there should be additional room for Japan equity market to re-rate higher.Seth Carpenter: All right. So, if you're wrong, it's insufficient bullishness. That's a great place to be.So, so Koichi, Jonathan and Sho are bullish on equities. And so, do you expect big shift in capital flows, and would that drive further appreciation of the currency? How do you think about the global investors' view of Japan? And what it means for capital flows on the one hand, and the value of the currency on the other?Koichi Sugisaki: As for the capital flows, I think under this fresh regime, what's the notable change among the Japanese financials? That they are shifting away from the fixed income product, I mean, like JGBs.Given the current attractive yields, you maybe wonder[ing] why the banking sectors buy the JGBs. But according to the recent disclosures, they have not purchased the JGBs much because their lending activity performed very well. So, as far as their lending activity have performed well, they have no incentive to make money in the securities investment.You know, their lending activity have accelerated thanks to the corporate CapEx investment to improve the productivity amidst the labor shortages in Japan. Once the banking sector starts to see some slowdown or some symptom of the lending activity to slow down, in such a case, they are quickly shifted to the securities investment and the JGB market will change the world.But so far, you know, lending growth [has] accelerated much. You know, the April lending growth is around 6 percent on the year-on-year basis, very strong. So, I think the banking sector still not have a[n] incentive to buy the JGBs.As for the lifers, [the] case is much more serious, I think. Because of the younger ages shifting towards the equities to defend the asset, particularly under the new NISA scheme [which] was launched in 2024. The younger peoples basically allocate their asset to the equities rather than the saving type of the products.Which means that the lifers are struggling to make, to gather the new monies. And this means that the demand for the long-term JGB to shrink. And the Japan lifers already filled the duration this much by 2023 to prepare for the new regulations starting from this fiscal year. Now, fortunately, they already finished the duration this much, this type of operation by 2023. But the yield [has] gone up from 2024, thanks to the BoJ's normalization.So, under such conditions, they are now struggling to the high market loss on the long-term JGBs. And some of lifers are now facing the impairment loss accounting. That actually [makes] lifers a net seller of the long-term JGBs rather than the buyers.Seth Carpenter: Okay, super helpful. Okay, we focused a lot on near-term developments, the energy shock, first quarter GDP. But we can think about a longer-term growth scenario. And there, I think AI comes in at times. Chetan, you've talked about the near-term super cycle, and I think there's a near-term aggregate demand side to AI, but over the longer term, maybe it's more supply.When I think about where growth is going, though, I also think about shifts in the strategy for policy. So maybe Yamaguchi-san, you can talk to me a bit on your take of Prime Minister Takaichi's policies. What do we think is likely to get announced? When? How do you see it affecting the long-term growth outlook for Japan?Takeshi Yamaguchi: [The] Japanese government publishes growth strategy report and the basic policy on fiscal management or honebuto policy in June every year. But I think this year's, you know, documents will be pretty important because these are the first documents under the Takaichi administration.And these documents will set the direction of economic policy by Takaichi-san, Sanae Takaichi. Or Sanae-nomics. Compared with Abenomics, I think Takaichi-san focuses more on the supply side issues, you know, supply domestic investment. While Abenomics focused more on the exit from deflation, focusing on demand side policy, particularly, you know, monetary easing.In the growth strategy report, the focus will be strategic investment in 17 strategic areas, including AI, especially, you know, AI robotics, semiconductors, defense and space, cybersecurity, and content industry and so on.Another important point of Sanaeconomic system, there's overlap between these strategic investment areas and national securities. The government will also update its defense strategy by the end of this year, and there'll be a increase in the defense budget target. The focus will be a lot on, you know, I think, dual use technologies, and also resilience of supply chains going ahead.Another important point is, I think there will be a change in the budget formation process. I think, under deflation there's effectively cap on non-social security spending. But I think this government will likely allocate budget, you know, for multi-investment. So, I think the budget process will be more flexible. And they put more emphasis on the initial budget rather than the supplementary budget.So, I think, these documents will be pretty important to monitor going ahead. But overall, I think, the government – yes, they do care about the market conditions. They will likely avoid massive, you know, expansion. But I think a slight expansion, especially in the area of strategic investment is likely to happen.Seth Carpenter: Very helpful. Alright, that's the end of the panel. Thank you very much to my colleagues. And this is where I have to shift back into podcast mode to say thank you for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a colleague or friend today. Thank you very much, everybody.

Can we influence the strong nuclear force? Neil deGrasse Tyson and Paul Mecurio answer grab bag questions about sci-fi laser guns, the Roche Limit, how we interact with the fundamental forces, and more! NOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can listen to this entire episode commercial-free here:  https://startalkmedia.com/show/cosmic-queries-scars-in-spacetime/ Thanks to our Patrons Gladys Strickland, Jonathan Marino, Petri Rajama, Benjamin Cross, Smooth, Cecelia Linley, John Burgin, Elizabeth Shope, Barrett Mayes, Paweł Szczypa, Ivan Ocampo, Angelo Rios, Luisangel Araujo, B-RO RTR, Sebastian Poehlmann, Kendra, Charles, LateGame, Stephanie, Denis, Joseph Hodge, Daniel Smith, Matt Sutton, Ziyod Yusupov, TheAceIsHere _, Robert Baughman, Patricia Weaver, Scott Jones, Luis Figueroa, TheJosh, Justin Garrity, J. Michael Mastro, Andreas Sorteberg Vik, Christian Di Patria, Steve Kingan, Martha, Nick, Jeff Ferren, Louise Keyte, Ann Hosler, Darren, Roni Gi, Salacious B Crumb, Tero Tommola, Dhaval, Andy Roberts, Brian Simmons, Toney, Remedy, Terry Melman, David Smith, Andrew M Gross, Conan, Raz, Joseph Watkins, Joe, Dom WB, Mike Bertuccio, Deepak Mani, Adam Dockerty, Mike, Habib Hassan, Exercise Enlightenment, Everett, Twisted Universe, Jason Prechtl, Luis Antonio Leon, SwillisBolt, Switchblade91, Linda Hall, Bo J, Megan Marler, Dalton, Jim, Chris Brown, Krisztian Unpronounceable, Donce, Jay, Jacob, Suzan Wallace, Ted, Steve James, TERP Radio, Sublimis, Alexander Casian, Onlymeami, Zack Blankenship, John Perez, Specter, DJ, Kristian Jeremiassen, Adam Flores, Dan Herman, Zef Correal, Maddie, Adam, Mark, Mary, Andrew494, and Matthew Grieve for supporting us this week. Subscribe to SiriusXM Podcasts+ to listen to new episodes of StarTalk Radio ad-free and a whole week early.Start a free trial now on Apple Podcasts or by visiting siriusxm.com/podcastsplus. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.