Podcasts about Boj

インタビューに答える日銀審議委員の増一行氏、２０日、東京都中央区日銀の増一行審議委員は２１日までにインタビューに応じ、追加利上げについて「経済・物価を考えると、環境的にはもう整っている」との認識を明らかにした。 Bank of Japan policymaker Kazuyuki Masu has offered his view that "the environment has already been prepared" for an additional interest rate hike by the BOJ in light of the economic and price conditions.

21/11 Scossa di volatilità a Wall Street che chiude in rosso. Il Vix tocca 28 punti. Nvidia chiude a -3% e porta con sé le Big Tech. Timori su vendor financing dell'AI, incertezza dai dati sul lavoro, Bitcoin sotto 86mila dollari contribuiscono al sentiment negativo. Sell-off anche in Asia su Nikkei e Kospi. La premier Takaichi annuncia un piano di espansione fiscale “responsabile” da 135 mld di dollari. Inflazione core al 3%, BOJ verso l'aumento dei tassi a dicembre. In Europa futures in rosso, arriva la Letter of Notice della Commissione EU per infrazione regole Golden Power. Moody's si pronuncia sul rating dell'Italia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bank of Japan policymaker Kazuyuki Masu has offered his view that "the environment has already been prepared" for an additional interest rate hike by the BOJ in light of the economic and price conditions.

Dario Catodici known as JustDario on X is the co-founder Synnax Technologies, a universal credit rating standard for digital asset and conventional private credit markets. He talks why the Japan carry trade is important for everyone to be paying attention to, how the BOJ might respond, possible bailout in the AI bubble and much more. PLEASE SUBSCRIBE LIKE AND SHARE THIS PODCAST!!!   Watch Show Rumble- https://rumble.com/v71z4xs-japans-inflation-surprise-justdario-on-x.html YouTube- https://youtu.be/bjBQIrqcQpc   Follow Me X- https://x.com/CoffeeandaMike IG- https://www.instagram.com/coffeeandamike/ Facebook- https://www.facebook.com/CoffeeandaMike/ YouTube- https://www.youtube.com/@Coffeeandamike Rumble- https://rumble.com/search/all?q=coffee%20and%20a%20mike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Apple Podcasts- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coffee-and-a-mike/id1436799008 Gab- https://gab.com/CoffeeandaMike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Website- www.coffeeandamike.com Email- info@coffeeandamike.com   Support My Work Venmo- https://www.venmo.com/u/coffeeandamike Paypal- https://www.paypal.com/biz/profile/Coffeeandamike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Patreon- http://patreon.com/coffeeandamike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Cash App- https://cash.app/$coffeeandamike Buy Me a Coffee- https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeandamike Bitcoin- coffeeandamike@strike.me   Mail Check or Money Order- Coffee and a Mike LLC P.O. Box 25383 Scottsdale, AZ 85255-9998   Follow Dario X- https://x.com/DarioCpx?s=20 Website- https://justdario.com/   Sponsors Vaulted/Precious Metals- https://vaulted.blbvux.net/coffeeandamike McAlvany Precious Metals- https://mcalvany.com/coffeeandamike/ Independence Ark Natural Farming- https://www.independenceark.com/

日銀の小枝淳子審議委員、３月２６日、同本店日銀の小枝淳子審議委員は２０日、新潟市で行った講演で「現在の実質金利が極めて低い水準にあることを踏まえると、金利の正常化を進めることが将来に意図せざるゆがみをもたらさないためにも必要」と語り、経済・物価情勢に応じて利上げを行うことが適切との認識を示した。 The Bank of Japan should raise interest rates to avoid future distortions as rates are currently significantly low, BOJ policymaker Junko Koeda said on Thursday.

Poslechněte si další epizodu podcastu Dopravní 6, který se zaměřuje na dopravu v městské části Praha 6.Témata:Nové linkové vedení tramvají. Linka 2 do dvojic, linka 20 do Modřan a nové linky 28 a 29Přípravy k elektrifikaci linky 191, jednání s DPP a RopidemGenerála Píky po rekonstrukci a řešení aktuálních problémůBoj ve Vokovicích o Krutec a nová zklidnění V Středu ve spolupráci s místními Přechod Čs. armády x Eliášova a úpravy středového ostrůvkuJednání s TSK o plánovaných stavebních akcích. Rozšíření a oprava Horoměřické, mosty na Evropské, stavební úpravy v Libocké, rekonstrukce Šárecké, plánovaná rekonstrukce Strahovského tunelu, oprava povrchu Jugoslávských partyzánů Rekonstrukce stanice metra HradčanskáPoptávky po oranžových zónách na krátkodobá parkováníTip k cestování z Letiště Ruzyně - terminál 2, aneb vyberte si správnou frontu___Dopravní 6. Podcast, ve kterém Ondřeje Matěje Hrubeš, radního pro dopravu Prahy 6, zpovídá rozhlasový moderátor Miloš Keller.Support the show

The Bank of Japan should raise interest rates to avoid future distortions as rates are currently significantly low, BOJ policymaker Junko Koeda said on Thursday.

Pomôžte nám šíriť evanjelium na Slovensku a v Českej republike: https://godzone.sk/podpora/Do dnešnej epizódy podcastu Flešbeky si moderátor Ivan pozval českého hosťa, marketéra, moderátora, talentového kouča a otca rodiny Michaela Kocha. Michael opisuje svoju cestu kráčania s Ježišom od jej začiatkov až po dnešok, kedy vedie chvály v spoločenstve GIF v Prahe.Spomína na to, ako ho Boh ochránil pred vyhorením a naučil ho naplno prežívať emócie. Svedčí o mnohých zázrakoch a situáciách, kedy sa o neho Pán Boh nadprirodzene postaral a na záver opisuje vzťah českých veriacich ku slovenským chválovým piesňam.0:00 Úvod a predstavenie1:08 Miska otázok1:38 Ak by po celý rok malo byt iba jedno ročné obdobie, ktoré by si si vybral? 2:08 Sukulent alebo fikus?2:35 Aké sú tvoje 3 slabé a 3 silné stránky?5:05 Podpor celoročnú službu projektu Godzone! (https://godzone.sk/podpora/)5:52 Ako vyzeral začiatok Michaelovej cesty s Ježišom?10:42 Začiatky služby a kariéry v marketingu a biznise13:46 Čo sa zmenilo v Michaelovom živote po Godzone tour 2016 v Prahe?15:33 Boj s vyhorením24:42 Prežívanie viery v rodine29:05 Svedectvá Božej vernosti 35:52 Boh si váži vytrvalosť 39:44 Za čo sa aktuálne Michael modlí?44:27 Ako ľudia v Česku vnímajú slovenské chvály?49:28 Poďakovanie a záver

Join Elizaveta Gridneva and Nicholas Ng on the IBKR Podcast as they explore Japan's bold economic shift from decades of deflation toward growth and innovation. Discover whether structural reforms, BOJ rate moves, and global megatrends can flip the script for investors.

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this KE Report Daily Editorial, we chat with Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and Editor of Marc to Market, about shifting global monetary policies, currency trends, and the ongoing dominance of the AI trade in shaping market sentiment. Key Discussion Highlights: Fed and BoE Divergence: Markets cut odds of a Fed rate cut in December, while expecting the Bank of England to ease after weak U.K. data. Currency Moves: Dollar Index steadies near 99; Sterling holds firm despite growth worries. BOJ and Yen: Bank of Japan unlikely to hike soon; yen nears 155 per USD, raising chances of intervention. AI Market Hype: Mark compares today's AI boom to the dot-com era, warning of overbuild and excess capacity. Beyond Tech: Notes weakness in rare earths, but ongoing opportunity in Bombardier and regional transport. Overall, global markets remain range-bound as traders await clearer signals from central banks and tech leaders.   Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market - https://www.marctomarket.com/   --------------- For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks: The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

After more than 40 days, the US government shutdown has finally ended. What happens next? Plus, the Federal Reserve’s uncertain December decision, volatile AI valuations, and Japan’s new Prime Minister’s push for a more flexible budget plan. And, the Malaysian ringgit is staging an impressive comeback. BNY’s Asia-Pacific macro strategist Wee Khoon Chong joins Emily Liu to break it all down. Highlights: 01:23 US shutdown ends 03:11 Fed’s uncertain next move 04:03 Hot AI valuations 08:18 Japan’s new budget 09:58 BOJ’s dilemma 12:36 Ringgit’s rise --- Send us your questions, thoughts, story ideas, and feedback to btpodcasts@sph.com.sg. --- Written and hosted by: Emily Liu (emilyliu@sph.com.sg) With Wee Khoon Chong, Asia-Pacific macro strategist, BNY Edited by: Chai Pei Chieh & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: Emily Liu & Chai Pei Chieh A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media --- Follow Market Focus Weekly podcasts every Friday: Channel: bt.sg/btmktfocus Amazon: bt.sg/mfam Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/mfap Spotify: bt.sg/mfsp YouTube Music: bt.sg/mfyt Website: bt.sg/mktfocus Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks BT Correspondents at: bt.sg/btcobt BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/podcasts BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Market news for November 10, 2025: Asian markets boosted by hopes for deal to end US shutdown; Australian dollar climbs on US shutdown hopes, hits 12-year high on kiwi; Japan to push stimulus plan, urges BOJ to keep interest rates low; OCBC shares continue rally to hit all-time high after strong Q3. Synopsis: Market Focus Daily is a closing bell roundup by The Business Times that looks at the day’s market movements and news from Singapore and the region. Written and hosted by: Emily Liu (emilyliu@sph.com.sg) Produced and edited by: Chai Pei Chieh & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media --- Follow Market Focus Daily and rate us on: Channel: bt.sg/btmktfocus Amazon: bt.sg/mfam Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/mfap Spotify: bt.sg/mfsp YouTube Music: bt.sg/mfyt Website: bt.sg/mktfocus Feedback to: btpodcasts@sph.com.sg Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks BT Correspondents at: bt.sg/btcobt BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/podcasts BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's episode is about effective savings in the kitchen. In the Slovak lesson, you will learn a few new words from my dialogue. You will also learn how to say “I'm trying to save a little.“ in Slovak. At the end of this episode, you can find my dialogue.Episode notesIn today's episode, I'm talking about how to effectively save some money in the kitchen. In the Slovak lesson, you will learn a few new words from my dialogue. You will also learn how to say “I'm trying to save a little.“ in Slovak. At the end of this episode, you can find my dialogue.Slovak lesson1.    výplata (paycheck)2.    pokladňa (checkout/register)3.    účet (bill)4.    zľava/akcia (discount/sale)5.    leták (flyer)6.    varenie (cooking)7.    prežiť (to survive)8.    obchod (store/shop)9.    lacný (cheap)10. drahý (expensive)11. zdražieť (to get more expensive)12. úspora (saving)13. usporiť (to save)14. Snažím sa trochu usporiť. (I'm trying to save a little.)DialogueDarina: Počúvaj, Beáta, v poslednej dobe sa mi zdá, že sa ceny v obchodoch úplne zbláznili.Beáta: Neboj sa, nie si v tom sama. Včera som v Lidli nechala polovicu výplaty a pritom som tam šla len po mlieko a chlieb.Darina: Presne! A ešte ten šok pri pokladni, keď si myslíš, že to bude stáť pár eur, a zrazu ti suma vystrelí ako raketa na Mars.Beáta: Vieš čo je najhoršie? Že aj veci v akcii sú ešte stále drahé.Darina: A elektrina, to je ďalšia kapitola. Bojím sa variť dlhšie ako desať minút, aby mi neprišiel účet, pri ktorom skolabujem.Beáta: No hej. Aj ja sa snažím trochu usporiť.Darina: Vieš čo robím ja? Nakupujem podľa obchodných letákov. Cítim sa ako finančný stratég, len bez toho luxusného platu.Beáta: A ja som zase začala variť doma viac. Tie ceny v reštauráciách sú nehorázne.Darina: Tak, ale varenie doma má aj svoje výhody. Vieš, čo je v jedle, a keď sa dobre vydarí, máš dôvod na mini oslavu.Beáta: A keď sa nevydarí, aspoň sa na tom zasmejeme.Darina: Pravda! Lebo keď sa nad tým nezasmieš, tak už len plač ostáva. Ale my sme Slováci a humor je nám bližší ako plač.Timestamps00:33 Introduction to the episode02:25 About rising prices in Slovakia05:46 10 Tips for effective savings in the kitchen11:11 Slovak lesson15:39 Dialogue in Slovak17:33 Dialogue with the English translation21:15 Final thoughtsIf you have any questions, send it to my email hello@bozenasslovak.com. Check my Instagram https://www.instagram.com/bozenasslovak/ where I am posting the pictures of what I am talking about on my podcast. Also, check my website https://www.bozenasslovak.com © All copywrites reserved to Bozena Ondova Hilko LLC

Send us a textDollar extends gains following hawkish Fed decision. Amid ongoing US shutdown, ADP and ISM reports enter the spotlight. Yen and pound stay wounded due to dovish BoJ and BoE bets. Stocks gain, gold rebounds, oil opens with positive gap on OPEC decision.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Demokracie umírá tam, kde se začínáme víc bát než věřit v emancipaci, kde se stáváme mechanismy strachu a zastrašování, a to je právě to, co české společnosti hrozí, napsala filozofka Alice Koubová před volbami v sérii Česká volba pro server Seznam Zprávy. Bojí se stále toho, že se z Česka stane autoritářský stát? „Jednoznačně, protože se do vlády dostávají strany, které explicitně používají násilnou rétoriku,“ přibližuje v pořadu Osobnost Plus.

This week, our Global FX Strategists discuss whether the hawkish Fed surprise changes the outlook for the dollar, how we're thinking about USD/JPY forecasts after a dovish BoJ meeting, and whether recent political events in Asia moves the needle for G10 & EM FX.   Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy ​Junya Tanase, Japan Markets Research   This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5121407-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Demokracie umírá tam, kde se začínáme víc bát než věřit v emancipaci, kde se stáváme mechanismy strachu a zastrašování, a to je právě to, co české společnosti hrozí, napsala filozofka Alice Koubová před volbami v sérii Česká volba pro server Seznam Zprávy. Bojí se stále toho, že se z Česka stane autoritářský stát? „Jednoznačně, protože se do vlády dostávají strany, které explicitně používají násilnou rétoriku,“ přibližuje v pořadu Osobnost Plus.Všechny díly podcastu Osobnost Plus můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

US equity futures were steady Thursday, Asian equity markets ended mixed and European markets opened mostly lower. Markets continued to digest the Trump–Xi meeting outcome, where the US agreed to lower tariffs on China to 47% in exchange for resumed soybean purchases and a one-year pause on rare earth curbs, as well as cracking down on fentanyl precursors. In addition, the US and South Korea finalized a trade deal involving $350B in South Korean investment for tariff relief. Monetary policy was another focus as the Fed delivered a 25 bp rate cut but signaled caution about further easing, with Chair Powell stressing that a December cut is “far from” certain. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to keep policy unchanged, while the BoJ held rates steady with two dissenters again voting for a hike.Companies Mentioned: Warner Bros., Liberty Global, Telefonica, OpenAI

Fed cut by 25bps as expected, subject to 50bps and U/C dissent, announced it will end the balance sheet drawdown.Chair Powell struck a hawkish tone around December, weighing on stocks, USTs & XAU while the USD benefited.Trump said the meeting with Xi was amazing & lots of decisions were made, he rated the meeting a 12/10.BoJ held rates, Takata & Tamura dissented, favouring a hike; support seen in JGBs afterwards as the statement avoided any overtly hawkish signal.European futures point to a positive cash open, US futures are gradually rebounding following Powell and the first Mag 7 numbers; GOOGL +7% after-hours, MSFT -3%, META -6%Crude benchmarks faded some of the gains seen after the EIA report, XAU hit by Powell but off lows, base metals followed the risk tone.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Flash HICP (Oct), German Unemployment (Sep), Flash GDP (Q3), Prelim. CPI (Oct), EZ Final Consumer Confidence (Oct), Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct) & Unemployment Rate (Sep), (Suspended Releases: US GDP & PCE (Q3), Weekly Claims), Events: ECB Policy Announcement, Comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, ECB President Lagarde, Fed's Logan & Bowman, Supply from Italy.Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Coinbase, Reddit, MicroStrategy, Cloudflare, Riot Platforms, Eli Lilly, Merck, Comcast, Roblox, Mastercard, Standard Chartered, Shell, Kion, Lufthansa, Volkswagen, Puma & ING.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Trump said the meeting with Xi was amazing & lots of decisions were made, he rated the meeting a 12/10; US-China agree 1-year trade truce.European bourses are broadly lower, US equity futures are mixed; META -8.8%, MSFT -2.3%, GOOGL +6.9% post-earnings.JPY struggles after BoJ kept rates steady and avoided any overt hawkish commentary; Ueda said no pre-set idea about timing of next rate hike. USD manages to hold onto post-FOMC spoils.Global benchmarks (ex-JGBs) remain soft post-FOMC; EGBs pressured into the ECB.XAU returns back above USD 4k/oz following hawkish Fed cut, crude remain rangebound.Looking ahead, Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct) & Unemployment Rate (Sep), (Suspended Releases: US GDP & PCE (Q3), Weekly Claims), Events: ECB Policy Announcement, Comments from ECB President Lagarde, Fed's Logan & Bowman.Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Coinbase, Reddit, MicroStrategy, Cloudflare, Riot Platforms, Eli Lilly, Comcast, Roblox, Mastercard.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Equity markets hit fresh highs on hopes for a friendlier terms-of-trade stance between the US and China to be agreed ahead of a Trump-Xi meeting meant to take place in South Korea tomorrow. We note the important details that need to emerge to justify the market's enthusiasm in what could prove a critical 24-hour window for global markets, with the FOMC on tap later today and an important BoJ meeting tomorrow as well. Plenty of single company stories to pick through as earnings roll in and macro developments are heating up several currencies as well. This and much more on today's podcast, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

On this episode, Bola and Dami are joined by Mayowa and they run through some of the latest releases. From Maphorisa, DJ Tunez, and Wizkid's South Gidi” to Mavo's “Shakabulizzy (Remix)” and his performance on collabs with Wizkid and Ckay, Shallipopi and Gunna's “Him,” Tyla's “Chanel” and two recent Show Dem Camp, Boj & Joey B drops.Inspired by Mavo's current moment, they dig into some of their favorite Afrobeats waves and end by reflecting on Dave's “The Boy Who Played The Harp” Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Listen now to the podcast from the Asset Management and Investors Council (AMIC), ICMA's dedicated forum advocating the interests of buy-side members, including asset managers, institutional investors, private banks, pension funds, and insurance companies, among others. Anita Karppi, Senior Director - Buy-side, Market Practice & Regulatory Policy, ICMA was joined this episode by industry experts, Bob Parker, former Chairman of AMIC and Senior Adviser to ICMA, and Massimiliano Castelli, PhD MSc, Managing Director and Head of Strategy & Advice at UBS Asset Management, who also serves as the Co-Chair of the AMIC Executive Committee. This podcast was recorded on 24th October 2025, where the team discussed: IMF/WB Annual Meetings: What were the major takeaways? US Government Shutdown & US/China Trade Negotiations: How will these challenges impact global markets? Central Bank Meetings: What to expect from the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ in late October and early November? Equity and Commodity Markets: Are we witnessing bubbles, and how can we define one? Investor Sentiment: After a strong 2025 performance, will investors take profits or reduce risks? German Government & European Financial Integration: Will we finally see progress on the Capital Markets Union? If you have questions or topics that you would like our guests to address in future episodes, please feel free to get in contact via email: AMIC@icmagroup.org. Learn more about AMIC: https://www.icmagroup.org/market-practice-and-regulatory-policy/asset-management/

This week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down to talk to Shan Husain in FI FX Sales about the outlook for rates and FX ahead of a busy week. In Japan PM Sanae Takaichi's speech in the Diet signals fiscal expansion. President Trump will be in Tokyo and then we also have the BoJ meeting on Thursday, following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The softer CPI print today leaves the Fed well placed to cut. Derek also discusses the implications for the pound after weaker than expected inflation data this week.  

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart, Sarah Campos e Victor Ary debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, o CPI dos EUA veio abaixo do esperado, mostrando que o repasse das tarifas sobre bens continua fraco; enquanto os PMIs subiram, puxados por serviços. Na Europa, os PMIs também surpreenderam positivamente, com melhora puxada pela Alemanha. Já no Reino Unido, o CPI de setembro surpreendeu para baixo e o PMI também veio mais forte. A tensão geopolítica aumentou com novas sanções a empresas russas.  No Brasil, o IPCA-15 veio abaixo do esperado, com queda significativa de serviços subjacentes e melhora da dinâmica dos núcleos. O Focus trouxe melhora nas expectativas de inflação, principalmente nos vértices mais longos. O governo decidiu incorporar as despesas que constavam na MP 1.303 em outras propostas, separando a parte de redução de despesas da parte de aumento de receitas, com o primeiro apresentando maior probabilidade de aprovação. As pesquisas eleitorais mostraram resultados divergentes, com melhora e piora na avaliação do governo. No mercado de crédito, o destaque foi a reversão parcial da forte compressão dos spreads de debêntures incentivadas observada desde junho. O índice de debêntures incentivadas abriu 40 bps nos últimos 10 dias, devolvendo quase metade do fechamento acumulado anteriormente. Mesmo assim, a semana foi marcada por forte volume no primário, com R$3,5 bi em novas emissões incentivadas, além de pipeline robusto. Nos EUA, as bolsas subiram (S&P 500 +1,92%), os juros curtos abriram marginalmente, e os longos fecharam marginalmente. No Brasil, o Ibovespa subiu 1,93%, os juros fecharam (jan/31 -31 bps) e o real valorizou 0,40%. Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar os encontros do Trump com Lula e Xi Jinping; decisões do Fed, ECB, BOC e BoJ; dados de atividade e inflação na Europa e inflação no Japão; e dados de mercado de trabalho e crédito no Brasil. Não deixe de conferir!

日銀は２９、３０日に金融政策決定会合を開く。 The Bank of Japan is seen as likely to maintain its monetary policy at a policy-setting meeting next week, as most BOJ policymakers are expected to call for continuing to monitor the impact of higher U.S. tariffs.

On this episode, Dami and Bola are joined by Mayowa to review music released in the past two weeks. They discuss Ayra Starr ft. Rema's “Who's Dat Girl,” Ajebutter, Minz, and Boj's “Gbe Kini Yen,” Moily ft. Tyla's “Body Go,” Lojay's “XOXO,” Zlatan's “Symbol of Hope,” Blaqbonez's “No Excuses,” Odumodublvck's “INDUSTRY MACHINE,” and more. They also delve into the fallout between Blaqbonez and Odumodublvck. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don't have tariffs, they don't have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.The US Senate is set to leave for the week on Thursday and is nowhere near ending the shutdown, according to a journalist.BoJ's Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral, but does not need to raise rates sharply or tighten monetary policy now, given both upside and downside risks.US President Trump said Israeli forces could resume fighting in Gaza as soon as he gives the word if Hamas doesn't uphold the ceasefire deal, according to CNN.APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where most major indices ultimately gained; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Aug), EZ Trade Balance (Aug), Philly Fed (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP, Comments from Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari, ECBʼs Lane & Lagarde, BoCʼs Macklem, BoEʼs Greene & Mann, Supply from Spain & France, Earnings from TSMC, Bank of New York Mellon, KeyCorp, Charles Schwab, United Airlines, ABB & Bankinter. Suspended Releases: US Weekly Claims, PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep). Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Political developments in Japan and France have brought more volatility to sovereign debt markets. Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha highlights the risks investors need to watch out for.Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha, from Morgan Stanley's Global and U.S. Economics teams.Today, I'm going to talk about sovereign debt outlooks and elections around the world.It's Wednesday, October 15th at 10am in New York.Last week we wrote about the deterioration of sovereign debt and fiscal outlooks; and right on cue, real life served up a scenario. Elections in Japan and another political upheaval in France drove a reaction in long-end interest rates with fiscal outlooks becoming part of the political narrative. Though markets have largely stabilized now, the volatility should keep the topic of debt and fiscal outlooks on stage.In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the LDP, elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader in something of a surprise to markets. Takaichi's election sets the stage for the first female prime minister of Japan since the cabinet system was established in 1885.That outcome is not assured, however. And recent news suggests that the final decision is a few weeks away. The landmark movement in Japanese post-war politics, in some ways further solidifies the changing tides in the Japanese political economy. Markets have positioned for Takaichi to further the reflation trade in Japan and further support the nominal growth revival.The Japanese curve twists steepened sharply as Tokyo markets reopened with the long-end selling off by 14 basis points amid intensifying fiscal concerns and the unwinding of pre-election flattener positions. Specifically, expectations appear to be aligning for a more activist fiscal agenda – relief measures against inflation, bolstered investment in economic security and supply chains, and stepped-up commitments to food security.Our strategists expect that sectors poised to benefit will include high tech exporters, defense and security names, and infrastructure and energy firms, as capital is likely to rotate towards these areas. Though, as our economists cautioned, the lack of a clear legislative maturity may hamper efforts for outright reorientation of fiscal policy.Meanwhile, we expect the implications for monetary policy to be limited. Our reading is that Taikaichi Sanae is not strongly opposed to Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's cautious stance reducing expectations for near term hikes. But we also reiterate that a hike late this year remains a possibility, particularly as the yen weakens.Economically, our baseline call has been supported by the election outcome given we did not expect the BoJ to raise rates in the near future. Indeed, market expectations of an increase in interest rates have been priced out for the next meeting.France is the other economy that saw long-end rates react to political shifts since we published our debt sustainability analysis. PM Lecornu's resignation was far quicker than markets expected, especially given the fact that he was only in office for a matter of weeks.A clear majority in the current parliament remains elusive pointing to continued gridlock, and ultimately snap elections remain a possibility for the next weeks or months. At the heart of the political uncertainty is division about how to proceed with fiscal consolidation against a moving target of widening deficits.The lack of fiscal consolidation in France has been a topic for many years. Though the ECB provides an implicit backstop against disruptive widening of OAT spreads through the TPI, our Europe economists view the activation of TPI as unlikely. As the spread widening has been driven by concerns around France's fiscal sustainability, a factor that is likely seen as reflecting fundamentals.In our rather mechanical projections on debt, we highlighted markets would ultimately determine what is and is not sustainable. These political events are the type of catalyst to watch for.So far, the risks have been contained, but we have a clear message that complacency could become costly at any time. With the deterioration in debt and fiscal fundamentals, we suspect there will be more risks ahead.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Wojciech Mann zdobył się na szczerość i powiedział w wywiadzie o śmierci: "Boję się, że to za chwilę nastąpi". Nie wiem, czy wiesz, że strach przed śmiercią jest jednym z diabelskich narzędzi szatana, by zabrać Ci radość życia i trzymać Cię w niewoli. Jak można się z tego wyzwolić? #NauczaniePastora #śmierć #straching ----------------------------------------------------

Politics continue to take centre stage, with the shocking LDP election result in Japan and the resignation of the French Prime Minister after less than 4 weeks in office. The EUR has weakened as a result, while USD/JPY has surged. We discuss the main policy features of ‘Sanaenomics', the implications for the BOJ, and what to expect from the political developments in France. Our guest speaker, Samira Fazili, Managing Director, US Public Policy & Government Affairs, shares her take on how and when the US government shutdown could end. Chapters: US: 02:12, Japan 13:57, Asia: 20:06, Europe: 21:43.

Simbol boja za pravičnost, svobodo in demokracijo. Tako na Zahodu odmeva razglasitev letošnje Nobelove nagrajenke za mir. To je vodja opozicije v Venezueli Maria Corina Machado. 58-letnica, ki se zaradi pritiskov skriva, trdi, da je to priznanje celotnemu gibanju za spremembe v Venezueli. Druge teme: - V Beli hiši trdijo, da bi moral Nobelov odbor nagraditi ameriškega predsednika Donalda Trumpa, tudi zaradi prekinitve ognja v Gazi. Izraelske sile v enklavi se taktično umikajo. Boj s Hamasom ni končan, trdi izraelski premier Benjamin Netanjahu, ki vztraja pri demilitarizaciji Gaze. - Predlog božičnice je vnesel razdor med socialne partnerje. Predstavniki delodajalcev so protestno zapustili današnjo sejo.Vodja obrtno-podjetniške zbornice Blaž Cvar je dejal, da niso pristali na to, da bi se pogajali o brezkompromisnem predlogu vlade. Minister Luka Mesec zavrača, da bi bila vlada rigidna v svojih stališčih. - Damjan Petrič od danes vodi policijo s polnimi pooblastili. Želi povečati ugled policije v javnosti, tudi z doslednimi ukrepi za večjo varnost ob uporabi prisilnih sredstev, se pravi da osebam ob uporabi prisilnih sredstev čimprej nudijo ustrezno zdravniško pomoč.

Spot gold prices climbed above $4,000 an ounce for the first time, as concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown added fresh momentum to a scorching rally. Bullion climbed as much as 0.4% to $4,001.01 an ounce on Wednesday. It’s a milestone moment for the metal that traded below $2,000 just two years ago, with returns that now well outstrip those for equities this century. Gold has jumped more than 50% this year in the face of uncertainties over global trade, the Federal Reserve’s independence and fiscal stability in the US. At the same time, geopolitical tensions have boosted demand for haven assets, while central banks have continued to buy gold at an elevated pace. For more, we spoke to by Bill Adams, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. Plus, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will likely face a tougher political environment in the second half of his five-year term starting Thursday after the ruling party leadership victory of Sanae Takaichi, a critic of interest rate increases. Ueda already faces a dilemma. The central bank appeared to be laying the groundwork for its first interest rate hike since January later this month. Now, following Takaichi's win, if Ueda goes ahead with an increase he risks antagonizing a premier who might then seek more sway over the BOJ's decisions going forward. For more, we spoke to Bloomberg's Paul Jackson. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

APAC stocks began the week mixed amid several holiday closures throughout the week and the ongoing US government shutdown.Nikkei 225 rallied, JPY fell and the JGB curve steepened amid hopes of fiscal loosening and a delay to BoJ policy normalisation following Sanae Takaichi's LDP leadership victory.Crude futures gained after OPEC+ producers agreed to a modest production increase of 137k bpd in November.Israel and Hamas are preparing for mediated negotiations on Monday in Egypt; hopes for a ceasefire have increased.NEC Director Hassett commented that mass layoffs of federal workers will begin if President Trump sees that shutdown talks are going nowhere.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Construction PMI (Sep), Sentix (Oct), Retail Sales (Aug), US Employment Trends (Sep), New Zealand NZIER (Q3), BoE's Bailey, ECB's de Guindos, Lane, Escriva & Lagarde.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Japanese stocks rallied and the yen weakened after a ruling-party vote positioned pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi to become Japan's next leader. Takaichi is set to become Japan's first female prime minister after winning the Liberal Democratic Party leadership contest Saturday. Investors had expected the seat to go to political scion Shinjiro Koizumi, who was seen as taking a more fiscally cautious view and leaving the Bank of Japan to press ahead with normalization. While Takaichi's appointment has lifted growth expectations, it has also raised concern over increasing bond supply while reducing chances of a BOJ rate hike this month. Elsewhere, gold advanced above $3,900 an ounce to yet another record, extending a rally that's been a feature of commodity markets all year. Bitcoin also set another all-time high over the weekend. Oil advanced after OPEC+ agreed Sunday to revive just 137,000 barrels a day of halted supply — a slower pace than earlier this year. Equity-index futures for the US also rose in early Asian trading. For more, we turn to Paul Dobson, Bloomberg's Executive Editor for Asia Markets. And for more reaction on Sanae Takaichi's win, we hard from Christopher LaFleur, Chairman at the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan. He spoke to Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong on the Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US dollar is marginally lower this week (-0.5%) with the economic data that was released this week confirming still weakening labour market conditions. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to James Roulston Institutional FX Sales about the LDP leadership election taking place on Saturday and the implications for BoJ policy and the yen going forward. In addition Derek discusses with James the implications of the ongoing government shutdown running into the FOMC meeting later this month.

APAC stocks were firmer, with gains across the board following a positive handover from Wall Street, where tech outperformed, whilst the US jobs reports this week look set to be delayed after CR votes failed again on Wednesday, as expected.Fitch said a US government shutdown does not have near-term implications for the ‘AA+'/stable US sovereign rating; S&P estimated the shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 0.1–0.2 ppts per week.10yr JGB futures came under pressure after the 10yr JGB auction, which printed a lower cover ratio than the prior sale and followed the recent 2yr JGB auction that saw the weakest cover ratio since 2009.The US will provide Ukraine with intelligence for missile strikes deep inside Russia, and US officials are asking NATO allies to provide similar support, via WSJ.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI (Sep), EZ Unemployment (Aug), US Challenger Layoffs (Sep), BoJ's Uchida, Fed's Logan, ECB's de Guindos, BoC's Mendes, Supply from Spain, France, and the UK.Due to the US government shutdown, the following US data will not be released: Weekly Claims, Factory Orders (Aug), Durable Goods Rev. (Aug).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are mostly higher as the solid start to the quarter continues, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%; US futures marginally extend on Wednesday's gains, ES +0.3%DXY currently lower for a 5th consecutive session, peers modestly firmer across the board with JPY leadingEGBs softer into supply but despite mixed/tepid taps the complex has lifted back to initial marginal peaks, USTs flat with the docket thinner than usualCrude began firmer but has since pulled back to lows despite a lack of newsflow, spot gold has taken a slight breather while base metals remain underpinnedLooking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs (Sep), Chicago Fed BLS Unemployment forecast, BoJ's Uchida, Fed's Logan, ECB's de Guindos, BoC's MendesDue to the US government shutdown, the following US data will not be released: Weekly Claims, Factory Orders (Aug), Durable Goods Rev. (Aug)Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following modest gains on Wall Street, with focus on the length of the US government shutdown after the Senate rejected the House-passed CR, whilst Chinese participants were away for Golden Week.The Senate has rejected the House-passed CR (as expected), cementing a shutdown, while House and Senate GOP leaders will hold a 10 a.m. (15:00 BST) news conference Wednesday, according to Politico, citing sources.BoJ Tankan Survey came in mixed and not strong enough to trigger hawkish repricing. Pricing tilted incrementally dovish as the dust settled, with a BoJ official noting firms were divided on the impact of US tariffs.The OPEC Secretariat firmly rejected media reports alleging that the OPEC-8 countries are planning to increase production by 500k bpd, calling the claims wholly inaccurate and misleading. Looking ahead, highlights include EZ & UK Final Manufacturing PMI (Sep), EZ Flash HICP (Sep), US ADP (Sep), ISM Manufacturing (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP, BoC Minutes, Fed's Barkin, ECB's Elderson, de Guindos, Rehn, BoC's Rogers, supply from UK and Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Morgan Stanley's chief economists discuss how policymakers in China, Japan and the European Union are addressing slower growth, deflation or the return of inflationary pressures. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Well, a lot has changed since the second quarter and the last time we did one of these around the world economics roundtable. After an extended pause, the United States Federal Reserve started cutting rates again. Europe's recovery is showing, well, some mixed signals. And in Asia, there's once again increasing reliance on policy support to keep growth on track.Today for the first part of a two-part conversation, I'm going to engage with Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe economist, to really get into a conversation about what's going on in the economy around the world.It's Tuesday, September 30th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt.Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in HongSeth Carpenter: So, it's getting to be the end of the third quarter, and the narrative around the world is still quite murky from my perspective. The Fed has delivered on a rate cut. The ECB has decided that maybe disinflation is over. And in Asia, China's policymakers are trying to lean in and push policy to right the wrongs of deflation in that economy.I want to get into some of the real hard questions that investors around the world are asking in terms of what's going on in the economy, how it's working out, and what we should look for. So, Chetan, if I can actually start with you. One of the terms that we've heard a lot coming out of China is the anti-involution policy.Can you just lay out briefly for us, what do we mean when we say the anti-involution policy in China?Chetan Ahya: Well, the anti-evolution policy is a response to China's excess capacity and persistent deflation challenge. And in China's context, involution refers to the dynamic where producers compete excessively, resulting in aggressive price cuts and diminishing returns on capital employed. And look, at the heart of this deflation challenge is China's approach of maintaining high real GDP growth with more investment in manufacturing and infrastructure when aggregate demand slows. And in the past few years, policy makers push for investment in manufacturing and infrastructure to offset the sharp slow down in property sector.And as a result, a number of industry sectors now have large excess capacities, explaining this persistent deflationary environment. And after close to two and a half years of deflation, policy makers are recognizing that deflation is not good for the corporate sector, households and the government. And from the past experience, we know that when policymakers in China signal a clear intention, it will be followed up by an intensification of policy efforts to cut capacity in select sectors. However, we think moving economy out of deflation will be challenging. These supply reduction efforts may be helpful but will not be sufficient on their own. And this time for a sustainable solution to deflation problem, we think a pivot is needed – supporting consumption via systematic efforts to increase social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers in urban China and rural poor. But we are not optimistic that this solution will be implemented in scale.Seth Carpenter: So that makes sense because in the past when we've been talking about the issue of deflation in China, it's essentially this mismatch between the amount of demand in the economy not being sufficient to match the supply. As you said, you and your team have been thinking that the best solution here would be to increase demand, and instead what the policymakers are doing is reducing supply.So, if you don't think this change in policy, this anti-evolution policy is sufficient to break this deflation cycle – what do you see as the most likely outcome for economic growth in China this year and next?Chetan Ahya: So, this year we expect GDP growth to be around 4.7 percent, which implies that in the back half of the year you'll see growth slowing down to around 4.5 percent because we already grew at 5.2 in the first half. And, going forward we think that, you know, you should be looking more at normal GDP growth set because as we just discussed deflation is a key challenge.So, while we have real GDP growth at 4.7 for 2025, normal GDP growth is going to be 4 percent. And next year, again, we think normal GDP growth will be in that range of 4 percent.Seth Carpenter: That whole spiral of deflation – it's sort of interesting, Japan as an economy has broken that sort of stagnation or disinflation spiral that it was in for 25 years. We've been writing for a long time about the reflation story going on in Japan. Let me ask you, our forecast has been that the reflationary dynamic is there. It's embedded, it's not going away anytime. But, on the other hand, we basically see the Bank of Japan as on hold, not just for the rest of this year, but for all of next year as well.Can you let us know a little bit about what's going on with Japan and why we don't think the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates anytime soon?Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, at the outset, we think BoJ needs still some more time to be sure that we are on that virtuous cycle of rising prices and wages. Yes, both prices and wages have gone up. But it is very clear from the data that a large part of this rise in prices can be attributed to currency depreciation and supply side factors, such as higher energy prices earlier, and food prices now. And similarly, currency depreciation has also played a role in lifting corporate profits, which then has allowed the corporate sector to increase wages.So, if you look at the drivers to rise in prices and wage growth as of now, we think that demand has not really played a big role. To just establish that point, if you look at Japan's GDP, it's just about 1 percent higher than pre-COVID on a real basis. And if you look at Japan's consumption, real consumption trend, it's still 1 percent below pre-COVID levels.So, we think BoJ still needs more time. And just to add one more point on this. BoJ is also conscious about what tariffs will do to Japan's exports, and economy; and therefore, they want to wait for some more time to see the evidence that demand also picks up before they take up a policy rate hike.Seth Carpenter: So, one economy in deflation and policy is probably not enough to prevent it. Another economy that's got reflation, but a very cautious central bank who wants to make sure it continues. Jens, let's pivot now to Europe because at the last policy meeting, President Lagarde of the ECB said pretty, pretty strongly that she thinks the disinflationary process in Europe has come to an end. And that the ECB is basically on hold at this point going forward.Do you agree with her assessment? Do you think she's got it right? You think she's got it wrong? How could she be wrong, if she's wrong? And what's your outlook for the ECB?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, there a ton of questions here. I think I was also struck by the statement as you were. I think there is probably – that's at least my interpretation – a reference here to – Okay, we have come down a long way in terms of inflation in the Euro area. Rather being at 10 percent at some point in the past and now basically at target. And we think; I mean, we just got the data actually, for September in. It's more or less in line with what we had expected up again to 2.3. But that's really it. And then from here it's really down.Very good reasons to believe this will be the case. We have actually inflation below target next year, and the ECB agrees. So that's why I think she can't have made reference to what Liza had because the ECB itself is predicting that inflation from here will fall. So, I think it's really probably rather description of the way traveled. And then there may be some nuances here in the policy prescription forward.So, for now we think inflation will undershoot the target. And we think this undershoot has good chances to extend well into the medium term. So that's the famous 2027 forecast. The ECB in its last installment of the forecast in September doesn't disagree. Or it's actually, in theory at least, in agreement because it has a 1.9 here for 2027. So, it's also below target.But when asked about that at the press conference, the President said, yes, it's actually, very close to 2. So, it really cannot be really distinguished here. So, from that perspective, policy makers probably want to wait it out. In particular for the October meeting, which is not a forecast meeting, we don't expect any change.And then the focus of attention is really on the December meeting with the new forecast. What will 2028 show in their forecast for inflation? And will the 1.9 in [20]27 actually be rather 1.8? In which case I think the discussion on further cuts will heat up. We have a cut for December, and we have another one for March.Seth Carpenter: Of course, very often one of the things that drives inflation is overall economic growth and a key determinant of economic growth tends to be fiscal policy. And there we've got two big economies very much in the headlines right now. Germany, on the one hand, with plans to increase spending both on infrastructure and on defense spending. And then France, who's seen lots of instability, shall we say, with the government as they try to come up with a plan for fiscal consolidation.So, with those two economies in mind, can you walk us through what is the fiscal outlook for Germany, in particular? Is it going to be enough to stimulate overall growth in Europe? And then for France, are they going to be able to get the fiscal consolidation that they're looking for? How do you see those two economies evolving in terms of fiscal policy?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, it's of course neither black or white, as you know. I think here we really look into the German case specifically, as the clear case where fiscal stimulus will happen. It may just not happen as quickly, and it's a very trade open economy. So, it's very much exposed to the current headwinds coming out of China for one. Or also U.S. tariffs. So, from that we conclude our net-net is actually, yes, there is textbook fiscal stimulus. So, basically domestic demand replacing less foreign demand.So that's fine, but just not enough. We see essentially better growth in Germany, but that's more cyclically driven. But it was; it just would not be enough for what you would normally think given the size of the fiscal stimulus, which is enormous. But it will also take some time, this fiscal stimulus to unfold.On the other side in France, as you rightly ask, how much consolidation are we going to get? I think the answer has to be very likely less than what the last – or the previous Prime Minister has had planned. So, all in all, that gets us into a situation of a country that lacks a clear economic policy structure, a clear governance structure; tries to – on a very fragile parliamentary majority – tries to consolidate the budget. Probably gets less consolidation going forward than what would be desirable. And, you know, here is sort of – not really...It's been muddling through a little bit. This is probably a good description of the approach here in France, and we actually have on the lack of a clear economic policy agenda and still some fiscal consolidation. We have actually lackluster growth in France for this year and next.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so what I'm hearing you saying is inflation seems likely to come down and probably undershoot their target causing President Lagarde and the ECB to reconsider how many cuts they're going to do. And then growth probably isn't going to be as stimulated by fiscal policy as I think lots of people in markets are hoping for.Chetan, Jens, thanks for joining us.And to the listeners, thank you for listening. Be sure to turn in tomorrow where I'm going to put Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist on the hot seat, talk about the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world.And if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

APAC stocks traded flat/mixed following a mostly but modestly firmer handover from Wall Street, with focus on the looming US government shutdown and the possibility of delayed NFP. Meanwhile, the White House announcement of further tariff details overnight capped upside in sentiment.The White House announced tariffs, including a 10% levy on timber and lumber from 14th October, alongside 25% duties on cabinets and vanities, with further hikes on cabinets and upholstered furniture set for 1st January unless trade deals are reached.Punchbowl's Sherman said that from listening to Schumer, Jeffries, and Vance, it does not sound like there was a breakthrough in the meeting, adding that a shutdown is around the corner.BoJ Summary of Opinions noted one member suggested it may be time to consider raising the policy interest rate again, while another said the BoJ gains more information on the US outlook by waiting, and one argued the Bank should maintain accommodative conditions at this point.RBA maintained its Cash Rate at 3.60%, as expected, in a unanimous decision, noting that the decline in underlying inflation has slowedLooking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Q2), French CPI Prelim (Sep), German CPI Prelim (Sep), Italian CPI Prelim (Sep), US Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Openings. Speakers include RBA's Bullock, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Elderson, Fed's Logan, Jefferson, Goolsbee, BoE's Lombardelli, Mann, Breeden. Earnings from Nike, Lamb Weston.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A firmer start to the week for equities, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, ES +0.5%; focus on a packed labour market agenda for the week and the looming US gov't shutdown.President Trump will be meeting with congressional leaders at 20:00BST/15:00ET; ahead of this, Trump has said if the Democrats refuse to make a deal "the country closes".USD pulling back from last week's data induced gains, JPY leads into a packed week and supported by BoJ's Noguchi. EUR & GBP also firmerFixed benchmarks in the green, Bunds lead after mostly cooler-than-expected Spanish flash figures, Gilts await Chancellor ReevesCrude curtaield by OPEC+ production reports, XAU at another ATH, Copper posting modest gainsLooking ahead, highlights include ECB's Cipollone, Muller, Kazaks, Schnabel, Lane, BoE's Ramsden, Fed's Waller, Hammack, Musalem, Williams, Bostic. Events include Bank of Israel Announcement, Labour Party Conference (29th Sept - 1st Oct). Earnings from Jefferies, Carnival.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P futures are down (0.3%) with major tech names edging lower in pre-market trading. Asian equities finished Monday mixed. Japan's Nikkei rebounded after Friday's BOJ-related drop, and the Hang Seng underperformed. Gains were seen in Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea, supported by semiconductor optimism. European benchmarks are mostly softer in early trades. Companies Mentioned: TikTok, Pfizer, Boeing, Comcast

Today we run down another solid session for the US market, with enthusiasm in abundance on the Nvidia investment in Intel, a development we discuss with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo, together with the surge in ASML and Crowdstrike yesterday. Also, a preview of some names reporting next week, including recent darling Micron, key developments in FX as the US dollar is on the comeback path and the JPY churns post-BoJ. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Lennar earnings, Bank of Japan's rate decision, and the week ahead. Song: Amie - Pure Prairie LeagueFor information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Why Michael Kramer from Mott Capital Management and Reading The Markets is focused on Fed dot plot and BOJ meeting (0:30). What happens with inflation expectations? (6:15) AI hype, tech stock valuations (9:00). Undervalued names in healthcare (25:30). Metrics for different stocks and sectors and long-term themes (27:50).Show Notes:Federal Reserve lowers rate by 25 basis points, first cut since DecemberFed Cuts And BoJ Hikes Could Finally Break The Yen Carry TradeMagnificent 7 Now The Troubling 3, Underscores Market WeaknessThe Bond Market Is On A Collision Course With StagflationEpisode transcriptsFor full access to analyst ratings, stock and ETF quant scores, and dividend grades, subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium at seekingalpha.com/subscriptions

S&P futures are up +0.2% and pointing to a higher open. Markets are also in a holding pattern ahead of key central bank decisions this week, with the Fed widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday and attention on the updated dot plot, while the BOJ is seen holding on Friday. Asian equities were mostly higher today with Japan and Greater China outperforming, and European markets are narrowly mixed in early trades. The US and China reached a framework agreement on TikTok ownership during talks in Madrid. While details remain unclear, discussions include potential licensing of TikTok's algorithm, with Beijing hesitant to fully transfer control to the US. Companies Mentioned: TikTok, Nvidia, Chord Energy, Oracle