Podcasts about Boj

Rubio, nebo Vance? Boj o budoucnost republikánů začal. Kam s Turkem? Kdo v Rusku ničí památku na svobodu. Mercosur testuje schopnost Evropy jednat. Nepít je v Česku stále nenormální. Ještě, že je tu aspoň „suchý únor“ A na konec glosa Evy Turnové. Moderuje Petr Schwarz.

Silver and Gold – Still Going. Big week for earnings. Fed decision on Wednesday. Nat Gas price exploding higher. US Dollar drops hard over past few days. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - What we learned from Davos - President Miyagi - tariffs on, tariffs off - January: stocks are trying to finish with gains - Small-caps flying - S&P  500: All-time highs going into earnings Markets - Silver and Gold - Still Going - Big week for earnings - Fed decision on Wednesday - Nat Gas price exploding - US Dollar drops hard over past few days Can't Keep Track Anymore -Trump has announced he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports to 25% after accusing Seoul of "not living up" to a trade deal reached last year. - In a post on social media, Trump said he would increase levies on South Korea from 15% across a range of products including automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals and "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS". - South Korea is planning on voting on the "agreement" with the US in February - KOSPI hits all-time high after being down 1% on the news - S. Korea President re-affirms their commitments Davos - 2026 - What we learned - Not much - Same bifurcated view of the world - Trump backed off the Greenland threats - Framework of a "deal" / "plan" - So, no tariffs - (Going to get a boy who cried wolf ....) Gold and Silver - Off to the races - Silver was up again in a big way Monday. Fell back down to earth (up 5% from up 15% earlier in the day - Hovering around $110 - that is impressive - parabolic move - GOLD! - Proving itself as a USD hedge and safety trade (Bitcoin in the dust) - Gold above $5,000 per ounce - - Plenty of reports that central banks are buying up| - USD weakness Economy - Still Strong - The US economy expanded in the third quarter by slightly more than initially reported, supported by stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories. - Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. - Consumer spending advanced at a 3.5% annualized pace last quarter, reflecting the fastest pace of outlays for services in three years, while spending on goods also accelerated from the previous quarter. Amazon - Trimming.... 30,000 jobs is plan - First half of that was in October and now trhery are laying off the remainder - CEO Jassey says that it is not financial of AI issues ---- Again - why so important to state that and make that a focal point? - Layoffs amount to 10% of the corporate workforce - Company still has 1.5 million employees Comeback? - Spirit Airlines is in talks with investment firm Castlelake for a potential takeover of the discount airline, CNBC has learned. - Remember, all started when Jetblue deal was blocked - Frontier tried - Spirit tried a few times to get head above water - nothing worked Booz Cancelled - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canceled department contracts with the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, whose employee leaked President Donald Trump's tax records to The New York Times. - The department noted that between 2018 and 2020, Booz Allen employee Charles Edward Littlejohn “stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers.” - Booz Allen Hamilton's stock price dropped by more than 10% on the heels of the Treasury Department's announcement. - Why does Booz have tax records in the first place? - Stock down 50% since end of 2024 Private Credit - BlackRock TCP Capital shares lower by 13% after it disclosed Friday night that net asset value declined approximately 19.0%; other private credit stocks falling in sympathy - The Company's net asset value per share as of December 31, 2025 to be between approximately $7.05 and $7.09, an anticipated decline of approximately 19.0% during the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to a net asset value per share of $8.71 as of September 30, 2025. - This decline is primarily driven by issuer-specific developments during the quarter. - The Company's net investment income per share to be between approximately $0.24 and $0.26 for the three months ended December 31, 2025. - Decliners: TCPC -13.40% OWL -3.07% ARES -3.30% KKR -2.08% BAM -0.41% CG -0.33% Zoom Communications - Valuation of Anthropic stake - The news is driving shares higher as analysts suggest ZM's $51 mln stake could now be worth between $2-$4 bln based on Anthropic's rumored $350 bln valuation, effectively acting as a "hidden gem" on its balance sheet. - From a fundamental perspective, the company's performance has also significantly improved, evidenced by its Q3 beat-and-raise report in late November where revenue rose 4.4% yr/yr to $1.23 bln. - This stronger financial performance is being driven by robust growth in the Enterprise segment, the rapid adoption of AI Companion features, and the scaling of adjacent growth businesses like Zoom Contact Center and Workvivo. - Consequently, the combination of high-margin operational rigor -- highlighted by a 41.2% non-GAAP operating margin -- and the massive unrealized gains from its AI investments has shifted investor sentiment firmly back toward growth. UNH and Health Stocks - DOWN 20% today - The administration's proposal (via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS) for Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates to rise by only 0.09% in 2027. This was far below Wall Street expectations of 4-6% (or higher), following a more generous ~5% increase for 2026. - The near-flat rate aims to improve payment accuracy, curb overbilling practices, and protect taxpayers, according to CMS statements, but it sparked widespread concerns about squeezed insurer margins, potential benefit cuts for seniors, reduced plan offerings, or market exits. - UnitedHealth has significant exposure to Medicare Advantage (roughly 30% of national enrollment), making it particularly vulnerable. The proposal, announced late Monday (January 26), led to a broader sell-off in health insurers: - - Humana (HUM) plunged over 20-21%. - - CVS Health (CVS) and Elevance Health (ELV) each dropped around 13-14%. Tech Earnings Microsoft (MSFT) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations:  Earnings per share (EPS): about $3.86 and Revenue: about $80 billion - Growth: high teens year over year revenue growth - Investors are focused on Azure and broader cloud growth, particularly how much of that growth is coming from AI related demand. Microsoft has built a reputation for consistent execution, which also means expectations are high. The critical issues will be cloud growth sustainability, margin stability, and how aggressively management plans to keep spending on AI infrastructure. Meta Platforms (META) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations:  EPS: about $8.15–$8.20 and Revenue: about $58–$59 billion - Growth: roughly 20–21% year over year revenue growth - Advertising remains the core driver, with AI driven ad targeting continuing to improve returns for advertisers. While topline growth expectations remain strong, investors are closely watching expense growth. The biggest question is whether rising AI and infrastructure spending can be managed without eroding margins or spooking investors, as Meta works through the next phase of its AI strategy. Tesla (TSLA) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations:  EPS (non GAAP): about $0.40–$0.45 and Revenue: about $24.5–$25 billion - Trend: earnings expected to be sharply lower than a year ago - Tesla enters earnings with the weakest expectations among the major tech names this week. Vehicle deliveries declined year over year, and automotive margins remain under pressure. While the energy and services segments continue to grow, they are not yet large enough to offset slowing EV demand. - Investors will be far more focused on forward guidance than on the quarter itself—particularly updates on Full Self Driving, robotaxis, and the broader AI roadmap. Apple (AAPL) Reports: Thursday, January 29 (After Market Close) Wall Street Expectations -  EPS: about $2.65–$2.67 and Revenue: about $138 billion Growth: approximately 11–12% year over year revenue growth - This is Apple's most important quarter of the year. Expectations call for record revenue driven by the iPhone 17 cycle and continued Services growth. The focus will be on margins, China demand, and forward guidance—particularly how higher costs (memory prices and tariffs) may impact profitability. Apple typically beats expectations, but the stock reaction will hinge on what management says about growth beyond this quarter. Company Ticker Report Date Est. EPS Key Focus Area Microsoft MSFT Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $3.92 Azure AI revenue growth & CapEx spending Meta Platforms META Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $8.17 Ad monetization of AI & 2026 CapEx guidance Tesla TSLA Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $0.45 Full Self-Driving (FSD) & Robotaxi updates Apple AAPL Thu, Jan 29 (AMC) Varies iPhone 17 demand & Apple Intelligence rollout ServiceNow NOW Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $0.88 Enterprise AI software adoption rates IBM IBM Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $4.28 Hybrid cloud and watsonx performance *AMC = After Market Close; EPS = Earnings Per Share (Consensus Estimates) Boeing - The company's airplane deliveries last year were the highest since 2018, helping drive revenue. Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024 and topping analysts' expectations. Cash flow of $400 million was roughly double what Wall Street was expecting. - Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024. The airplane manufacturer delivered 600 airplanes last year, up from 348 a year earlier. Another MoonShot - U.S. natural gas prices surged over 17% on Monday morning, climbing above $6 for the first time since late 2022. - It comes as Winter Storm Fern leaves hundreds of thousands without power and forces mass flight cancellations. - The National Weather Service has forecast wind chills as low as -50 degrees Fahrenheit (-45.56 degrees Celsius) across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. this week. -Up 68% YTD - Nat gas is used in a whole lot of things - electrical grid 43% is fueled by Nat Gas Government - Not Again! - Seems like Dems are threatening a shutdown again - A partial U.S. government shutdown is set to begin on Friday, January 30, 2026. - The Senate is expected to vote on a funding package to avert this shutdown, with delays from a winter storm pushing initial votes to at least January 27, 2026 - The issue is being exacerbated with the ICE / Minnesota issues This is precious - Ex-finance minister Noda currently co-heads largest opposition party - He says that Japan unlikely to get international consent for intervention - Yen, bond selloff requires Japan to be in crisis mode, he says - Government must vow to restore fiscal discipline to end yen fall, Noda says - Japan must create environment allowing for steady BOJ rate hikes, he says - THIS shows us all that the whole thing with these guys/gals is all political. - NEVER EVER if he was in the role would he say anything like this.       Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Today, markets are happy to have dodged a US-Europe trade war this week, but we consider a few issues (besides the acceleration in high-impact earnings reports next week), or "grenades" that may or may not go off from here: first, whether this winter storm hitting the US could have an impact, among other things, on AI data centres - not in a storm sense, but in a storm of protest sense, second, the EU Mercosur trade deal and whether this opens up internal strife within key EU institutions, and third, a very delayed-fused situation for sterling and gilts linked to Labour party politics in the UK. Also, the BoJ, whether FX vol is finally heating up and much more on the pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy Here's that link to that piece on the US and Europe not speaking the same structural language on the world order, indicative of the overall massive rift that remains despite not engaging in a trade showdown this week. For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Intel earnings and BOJ leaving rates unchanged. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Sara Maki, an MUFG Graduate Analyst, discuss why the USD has corrected lower over the past week even as US yields have risen. They also discuss the pick-up in JPY volatility after the BoJ's latest policy update.   

Please join Sphia Salim for a discussion with Takayasu Kudo and Shusuke Yamada on Japanese developments this week, including the major long-end steepening. We will review the BoJ meeting, explore what the Feb 8th election, announced this week, could mean for Japanese fiscal policy and thereby the risks it presents for JGB yields, the curve and JPY.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

We preview US core PCE, UK CPI, and China GDP, and discuss the latest on geopolitics and the Fed. In Japan, the BOJ is on the spotlight amid JPY weakness and prospects of snap elections. Norges Bank, CBRT, BI and BNM are also on tap with likely divergent forward guidance. Chapters: US: 01:55, Japan: 09:20, China & Asia: 15:40, Turkey, Europe & UK: 22:05.

Google ima monopol nad iskanjem po spletu in vsaj do zdaj je veljalo, da z dobrim strokovnjakom lahko vplivamo na prikazovanje spletnih strani. Veliki jezikovni modeli umetne inteligence pa pravila igra spreminjajo. Lahko Chat GPT prepričam, da omeni ravno mojo picerijo, ko ga uporabnik sprašuje po najboljših picah v Ljubljani? Lahko (že) zmanipuliramo umetno inteligenco in ji sugeriramo odgovore? O novih časih optimizacije spletnega iskanja razmišljata vodja digitalnih projektov na agenciji Futura DDB Gregor Čič in Jake Kastrenakes, urednik na ameriškem tehnološkem mediju The Verge. Zapiski: Odbit Discord Oglasite se lahko na odbita@rtvslo.si The poeple who ruined the internet Poglavja: 00:00:01 Prva epizoda v letu 2026: Kaj sta Anže in Maruša nazadnje guglala? 00:01:05 Predstavitev gosta: Gregor Čič (digitalni projekti, Futura DDB) 00:01:54 Kaj je sploh optimizacija spletnih strani (SEO) in zakaj je bila do zdaj ključna? 00:03:35 Vloga SEO strokovnjaka v času prevlade Googlovega algoritma 00:04:31 Research vs. Search: Kdaj uporabimo Google in kdaj chat GPT? 00:05:44 Primer picerije: Kako se odgovori razlikujejo med iskalniki in klepetalniki 00:06:28 Pogovor z izvršnim urednikom portala The Verge (Jake Kastrenakes) o "zatonu Googla" 00:07:54 Koncept "Google Zero": Bo obisk spletnih strani zaradi UI popolnoma usahnil? 00:08:44 Ali je SEO mrtev? 00:10:54 Podatki o uporabi: 16 milijard iskanj na Googlu vs. 1 milijarda na chat GPT dnevno 00:12:13 Kako mlajše generacije (Gen Z) iščejo izdelke prek TikToka in klepetalnikov 00:13:24 Izguba "lijaka": Kako spletne strani izgubljajo prihodek od oglasov 00:15:45 Pritisk umetne inteligence: UI povzetki na vrhu Googlovih rezultatov 00:16:41 Kako danes vplivati na odgovore velikih jezikovnih modelov (LLM)? 00:18:03 Pomen prisotnosti na forumih in portalih s pregledi (TripAdvisor, Reddit) 00:18:41 FAQ za robote: Zakaj vsebino pišemo za UI agente? 00:20:25 (Ne)merljivost uspeha: Ni več garancije, da boste na prvem mestu 00:22:13 Sistemi "črne skrinje": Zakaj ne vemo natančno, kako UI sintetizira odgovore 00:24:52 Ali se sploh splača "izigravati" klepetalnike? 00:26:27 Nevarnost za manjše spletne strani: Kdo bo sploh še ustvarjal vsebino? 00:29:10 Prihodnost: Nakupovanje neposredno znotraj klepetalnika 00:30:12 Amazon vs. roboti: Boj za človeške kupce 00:30:56 Ali bodo klepetalniki postali podkupljivi s strani oglaševalcev? 00:33:04 Tehnične zahteve v letu 2026: Sheme v ozadju spletnih strani 00:34:27 Od SEO do GEO: Kako marketing spreminja kratice 00:35:00 Zaključek

Original Release Date: November 17, 2025In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: Today, we'll focus on [the] all-important macroeconomic backdrop. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Patriot games are coming. Larry Ellison in the spotlight. Hi Ho Silver and away! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - ELON gets his $$$ - Kids account challenge - Patriot games are coming... Markets - Not much headwinds - EOY approaching - Analysts predicting SP500 for 2026 - 7,500 (12% upside) - More Oracle back and forth - Gold and Silver Elon - Elon Musk's net worth surged to $749 billion late Friday after the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Tesla stock options worth $139 billion that were voided last year - He also recently received a $1T pay plan approval - Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jensen Huang combined - His fortune exceeds the GDP of nations like the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland. - He is richer than every country in Africa by GDP - He is projected by some reports to become the world's first trillionaire by 2027 When did Larry Ellison and Oracle become newsworthy? - Every day in the news.... - Larry Ellison NOW Personally Guarantees Paramount Bid for Warner Bros. - The announcement of Mr. Ellison's personal guarantee is meant to address concerns that the Warner Bros. Discovery's board had expressed about Paramount's original offer. - Helping out sonny-boy? More Oracle - Oracle stock slid after a report that Blue Owl Capital won't back a $10 billion data center for OpenAI. (Michigan) - Oracle has $248 billion in lease commitments for data centers and cloud capacity commitments over the next 15 to 19 years. - Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks. EVEN MORE! - Multiple media outlets, including the Associated Press, reported that ByteDance has reached an agreement with Oracle ORCL, Silver Lake, and Abu-Dhabi-based MGX to set up a joint venture for TikTok's US operations. Oracle will hold a 15.0% stake in the new entity, while ByteDance will retain a 19.9% stake. - The important thing her is that TikTok stays as a major tenant of OCI as ORCL needs this cash flow... - Of all of the items, this may be why ORCL stock has bounced te last few days. Congressional Ban - A vote on legislation banning members from owning or trading stocks could get a vote in the new year, according to House leadership and Republican members. - President Donald Trump has said he supports a congressional ban but has pushed back on versions that include the executive branch. - Basically this bill would prohibit the ownership of individual stocks by congress Over to Japan - Bank of Japan raises benchmark rates to highest in 30 years, lifting 10-year JGB yield past 2% - Yen still VERY weak - trading at 157/USD - (problematic) - The BOJ said that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly negative,” adding that accommodative financial conditions will continue to firmly support economic activity. - The yen weakened 0.25% against the USD after the decision - therefore still dovish and stimulative Economic Numbers - Estimates, partial numbers and best guesses. OH, 2-month averaging as well - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual headline inflation rate and core CPI rate for last month were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, well below expectations. - Due to government shutdown, BLS to make certain methodological assumptions about the prior month's inflation levels. - Those assumptions in the methodology were not clear to economists and were not fully explained in the release. - Here is a big issue: The price changes in October for the OER (owners equivalent rent) appear to have been “set to zero.”  Sports Prediction Markets - Sports is fueling the growth and is forecasted to make up 44% of volume as prediction markets mature. - According to one expert: the fundamental elements of consumer demand and an array of diverse brands looking to meet that demand are clearly in place - Sportsbooks are getting a bit nervous.... First Dell, then... - Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and his wife, Barbara, committed to seed Trump accounts for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. - Following the Dells' pledge, the funds will be aimed at kids who live in a Connecticut ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. - The Dalio grant will fund $250 per child for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. This applies to children who live in a ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. About 87% of Connecticut ZIP codes meet that criteria, according to a CNBC analysis of Census Bureau data. - “Ray has joined what we are calling the 50-state challenge,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press conference on Wednesday. - A growing number of companies have announced they would match contributions to Trump accounts for their employees, including BNY and BlackRock. Patriot Games (Hunger Games?) - Trump announced: The Washington Monument will be illuminated with festive lights, a triumphal arc will be constructed and the “Patriot Games” will commence. The games are an “unprecedented four-day athletic event featuring the greatest high school athletes: one young man and one young woman from each state and territory. - Uhhhhhh "And so it was decreed that, each year, the various districts of Panem would offer up, in tribute, one young man and woman to fight to the death in a pageant of honor, courage and sacrifice. (Hunger Games 2012) - What next - PURGE NIGHT? Fed Pick - Now it seems as if it is a 4 person race... - President Trump says "Nowadays, when there is good news, the market goes down because everybody thinks that interest rates will be immediately lifted"; says "I want my new Fed Chairman to lower interest rates if the market is doing well"; says "Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" San Fran Blackout - Alphabet-owned Waymo resumed its robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area Sunday evening after pausing it amid widespread blackouts that had affected their vehicles' behavior. - Waymo said it worked with city officials throughout the blackout and had “proactively” initiated a temporary suspension of its service. - Interesting point there - what happens when grid disruptions for internet with self-driving Angry Shareholders (For a minute) - Tricolor CEO Daniel Chu directed a deputy to send him $6.25 million in bonuses in August, weeks before the company filed for bankruptcy, U.S. prosecutors alleged. - Subprime autofirm that had alleged fraud - This happens all the time - Big issue to keep alert to is the news about "Subprime" WEED - Trump's executive order shifts cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, easing research, banking and tax restrictions and marking the biggest federal cannabis policy change in decades. - Shares of cannabis conglomerates were down following the announcement, likely from worries of new competition from international companies. - NOT legalization - NOT for recreational use... - Banking, Institutional capital ..... OpenAi - Beggars cup continues - OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer's effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp. - The deal under discussion could value OpenAI north of $500 billion and see it adopt Amazon's Trainium chip, a person with knowledge of the matter said, asking to remain anonymous to describe private negotiations. - Talks, however, are at a preliminary stage and terms could change, the person added. High Ho Silver and Away! - Silver up 135% YTD - Gold up 70% - Best year since strongest annual performance since 1979 for Gold - 1970's was inflation, USD weakening, Energy crisis. - What is similar/different now? (Big difference is buying up (China, Poland, Turkey, India) Light menu - Darden Restaurants will roll out a new lighter portion entrées menu at all Olive Garden locations in January, the company announced during its quarterly earnings call last Thursday. - Citing affordability: "Olive Garden has seen a double-digit increase in affordability perceptions from guests who order from the lighter portions menu and an increase in frequency among these guests, which should help build traffic over time," Cardenas said. - Sooooo 0 due to high costs, Americans are cutting back on food? - If it were for weight loss, no need for Oliver garden to cut back on portions as most inedible anyway... Copper - Copper prices topped $12,000 a ton for the first time, extending the metal's recent bull run as mine outages add to concerns about supply. - The threat of US import tariffs on the metal has also been an important factor pushing up prices this year, with copper piling up in American warehouses. - Industry analysts have said that much of the richest and most easily accessible mining resources are now exhausted, and experts are warning that the market is on the cusp of a major deficit. Jim Beam - Bourbon maker Jim Beam is halting production at one of its distilleries in Kentucky for at least a year as the whiskey industry navigates tariffs from the Trump administration and slumping demand for a product that needs years of aging before it is ready. - Jim Beam said the decision to pause bourbon making at its Clermont location in 2026 will give the company time to invest in improvements at the distillery. The bottling and warehouse at the site will remain open, along with the James B. Beam Distilling Co. visitors center and restaurant. - The percentage of U.S. adults who say they consume alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest by one percentage point in Gallup's nearly 90-year trend. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner) FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Daniel Lam discusses the latest rates decisions from the ECB and the BOJ, how the USD-Index has been recovering, and the positive correlation between the USD and US equities. “Cut to the Chase” will return on Friday 02-Jan-26.Speaker: - Daniel Lam, Head of Equity Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode, Chris Whalen breaks down why Kevin Hassett may have blown his chances for Fed Chair by walking back Trump's views, discusses Kevin Warsh as the emerging frontrunner, and explains his reform proposal to return to a decentralized Fed with 15 district banks focused solely on sound money. He reveals why Trump's rhetoric about interest rates is backfiring (pushing the 10-year UP instead of down), predicts a home price correction in 2027-28, and explains why 3% inflation is now the new target. Whalen also discusses why gold and silver are still in early innings, how commercial real estate pain is being quietly resolved in the background, why good bank numbers mask concerning private credit risks, and answers a viewer question about BOJ rate hikes potentially triggering a broader correction.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   https://international-economy.com/TIE_Su25_Whalen.pdfTimestamps:00:00 Welcome Chris Whalen01:10 Kevin Hassett: Did he blow his chances for Fed Chair?03:38 Reforming the Fed: Decentralized model vs FDR's changes04:11 How decentralization would change Fed policy06:08 Fed must be independent of President, not Congress07:44 Post-1935 power concentration with Fed Chair08:11 How centralization distorted monetary policy09:17 Has the Fed been acting like its own hedge fund?10:30 Home price correction coming in 2027-2811:14 Subscribe reminder11:52 Trump's rate talk pushing yields UP not down12:56 Advice to Trump: Talk about growth and jobs, not rates14:09 Kevin Warsh as emerging frontrunner for Fed Chair15:17 Scrap the dual mandate, focus on sound currency16:41 CPI print this week: 3% is the new target17:23 Raising conforming limits encourages more inflation18:42 Gold, sound money, and what Treasury should do20:14 Is sound money viable?21:33 Roosevelt's New Deal legacy and today's problems22:53 Silver all-time high, gold north of $4,300 - still early innings24:22 Commercial real estate pain and which banks are exposed27:10 Private credit, NDFIs and why good bank numbers are concerning29:37 Inflation driving everything in New York and beyond30:22 Viewer question: BOJ rate hikes and impact on risk assets31:44 Wrap up, year-end predictions preview and where to find Chris

Today, a look at AI stocks trying to get back their stride, Trump's DJT stock now becoming a nuclear fusion play and thoughts on what exactly can stop the yen from weakening when the market continues to play the currency as an emerging market currency after today's BoJ hike, with weakness in the currency coinciding with new 26-year highs in the 10-year JGB yield, which has ripped higher through 2.00%. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

After Thursday's comeback driven by CPI data and Micron, investors contemplate a BOJ rate decision and earnings from Nike and FedEx. Consumer sentiment data is due after the open.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see ​schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0131-1225) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The BoJ hikes interest rates to levels not seen for 30 years, causing yields to spike to multi-decade highs. Governor Kazuo Ueda says the central bank will continue to tighten should the economy move in line with forecasts. After a 16-hour summit, European Union leaders have agreed on a €90bn loan to Ukraine after failing in negotiations to unfreeze Russian assets. Nike scores a top and bottom line beat but the results are marred by poor sales in China, dragging the sports apparel giant's shares down.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where the major indices gained following softer CPI data and strong Micron earnings, while the attention overnight turned to the BoJ.USD/JPY edged higher alongside the positive risk appetite and despite the BoJ decision to hike rates, as widely expected, and with no mention of FX-related concerns.US President Trump's administration initiated a multi-agency review of NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 licenses for sales to China, according to sources cited by Reuters.US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and will deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.1% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jan), UK PSNB (Nov), UK Retail Sales (Nov), GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec), Canadian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Consumer Confidence (Dec), US Employment Trends (Nov), and CBR Announcement. Speakers include BoJ's Ueda, ECB's Cipollone, Lane & Fed's Williams.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump's administration initiated a multi-agency review of NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 licenses for sales to China, according to sources cited by Reuters.US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and will deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.European bourses are mixed whilst US equity futures are broadly firmer, with outperformance in the NQ.DXY is firmer, whilst the JPY underperforms; the BoJ hiked rates by 25bps as expected, though Governor Ueda avoided explicitly guiding future policy.Global fixed benchmarks generally pressured but with price action fairly muted.Crude benchmarks trade muted as EU agree on Ukraine loans; XAU trades rangebound after failing to break above USD 4350/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Consumer Confidence (Dec), US Employment Trends (Nov). Speakers include ECB's Lane & Fed's Williams.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

En Capital Intereconomía hemos repasado las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa. Asia ha cerrado con subidas tras el buen dato de inflación en EE. UU. y la subida de tipos del Banco de Japón, mientras Wall Street celebra la moderación del IPC. En Europa, el Ibex 35 ha superado los 17.100 puntos, impulsado por el BCE y la referencia inflacionista estadounidense. En el primer análisis de la mañana, Ignacio Vacchiano, country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares, ha analizado el impacto del movimiento del BoJ, las perspectivas del IPC y el PCE en EE. UU., qué puede hacer la Fed y la temporada de resultados, con el foco en Nike y FedEx. El programa ha incluido el habitual repaso a la prensa económica. En la entrevista, María Canal, portavoz de la representación de la Comisión Europea en España, ha abordado la continuidad del Consejo Europeo, las claves del Plan de Vivienda Asequible presentado por la Comisión y el nuevo paquete de automoción.

The final major week of the year in macro is in the books. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins The Weekly Briefing to explain why the latest US inflation report should be taken with a “bucketful of salt,” while reviewing the year-end moves from the BoE, BoJ, and ECB. He reviews the latest moves from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the ECB, and talks about why a growing Chinese trade surplus has a corresponding deficit that could present a key risk to global macro stability.Plus, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses one of our most prominent calls for 2026: why, despite recent wobbles, the AI-driven equities bubble will continue to inflate.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Sarah Campos e Tomás Goulart comentam, no episódio desta semana, os principais acontecimentos no Brasil e no mundo. Nos Estados Unidos, foram enfim divulgados os dados econômicos de outubro e novembro. A taxa de desemprego subiu para 4,6% e o núcleo da inflação desacelerou para 2,6% em 12 meses. A qualidade dos números, porém, foi afetada por problemas de coleta, o que levou o Federal Reserve a indicar que dará mais peso aos próximos indicadores. Na Europa, o BCE manteve os juros estáveis e elevou suas projeções de inflação e crescimento. No Reino Unido, o BoE reduziu a taxa em 0,25% após votação apertada, sinalizando aproximação do juro neutro. No Japão, o BoJ elevou a taxa para 0,75% e segue aberto a novas altas. Na China, os dados de atividade voltaram a decepcionar, com destaque para vendas no varejo e crédito às famílias. No Brasil, a Ata do Copom e o Relatório de Política Monetária foram os principais destaques. O Banco Central reconheceu incerteza sobre o mercado de trabalho, mas retirou a sinalização de inflação acima da meta no horizonte relevante, reacendendo a possibilidade, ainda dependente do cenário, de um corte em janeiro. No campo político, a pesquisa mostrando Flávio Bolsonaro competitivo aumentou a volatilidade e trouxe dúvidas sobre sua capacidade de reduzir a rejeição entre independentes. Nos EUA, o juro de 2 ano fechou 4 bps, e as bolsas tiveram desempenho misto – S&P 500 +0,10%, Nasdaq +0,59% e Russell 2000 -0,86%. No Brasil, o jan/29 abriu 23 bps, o Ibovespa caiu 1,43% e o real desvalorizou 2,3%. Para a próxima semana, as atenções se voltam para a divulgação do PIB dos Estados Unidos no terceiro trimestre. Já a agenda doméstica inclui o IPCA-15 na terça-feira e tende a ser mais esvaziada devido às festas de fim de ano.

Rendimentos globais sobem após o BOJ elevar juros para 0,75%, maior nível em mais de 30 anos, e indicar continuidade do aperto se o cenário permitir.

Bitcoin prices recovered on Thursday, December 18, bouncing back from the previous day's decline after inflation figures came in lower than expected.~This episode is sponsored by iTrust Capital~iTrustCapital | Get $100 Funding Reward + No Monthly Fees when you sign up using our custom link! ➜ https://bit.ly/iTrustPaulGuest: Tim Warren, Host of Investing BrozInvesting Broz Youtube ➜ ‪‪  @TimWarrenTrades  Follow on Twitter ➜  @timsta6753   00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: iTrust Capital01:40 Inflation breakdown04:00 Missing data04:30 Tariffs are starting to show up in goods06:30 Crypto sentiment07:00 Bitcoin analysis08:45 4-year cycle10:45 Crypto bills delayed13:30 Bitcoin January prediction15:50 Bitcoin MACD19:10 Tom Lee: BTC could double by January?23:45 BOJ rate hike priced in?26:00 ETH bottom in?28:00 XRP analysis29:45 UNI a buy?32:45 Outro#Crypto #bitcoin #ethereum~Inflation Falls?

En Capital Intereconomía hemos repasado las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa. Wall Street cotiza con dudas ante la financiación de la inteligencia artificial, mientras que en Asia arranca la reunión del Banco de Japón con la atención puesta en el IPC. En Europa, el Ibex 35 busca el asalto a los 17.000 puntos a la espera de las decisiones de los bancos centrales. En el primer análisis de la mañana, Hernán Cortes, socio fundador de Olea Gestión, ha explicado la reacción de bonos y dólar al discurso de Donald Trump, y qué esperar del BCE, el BoJ y el Banco de Inglaterra. También ha abordado cómo trabajar las duraciones en renta fija, la importancia de una gestión flexible, activa y global, y la evolución del precio del petróleo, que extiende ganancias tras el bloqueo de Trump a Venezuela. El programa ha incluido el habitual resumen de prensa económica. En la entrevista, Gustavo de Arístegui, diplomático, ha analizado el discurso de Trump contra los migrantes y el sistema político anterior, sus declaraciones sobre la situación económica y la máxima tensión en Venezuela tras el bloqueo total anunciado por Estados Unidos.

Ukrainian President Zelensky said there is still no ideal peace plan as of now, and the current draft is a working version; Russia's Ryabkov said they are ready to make efforts to overcome disagreements relating to the Ukraine crisis.China Securities Times commentary noted that China should set a positive yet 'pragmatic' 2026 GDP growth target with leeway, while researchers are said to be divided between an around 5% or 4.5%-5.0% growth target for 2026.European bourses are broadly lower, with US equity futures also in the red as the NQ continues to underperform.USD awaits data deluge, GBP outperforms following hawkish LFS and PMI & JPY continues gains into BoJ on Friday.USTs trade steady into NFP, Bunds chop on PMI metrics whilst Gilts underperform post-jobs data.Brent dips below USD 60/bbl for the first time since May as geopolitical tensions ease; metals are broadly subdued.Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs (Dec), US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 29 Nov), Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct), Jobs Report (Nov), Retail Sales (Oct), Business Inventories (Sep), NBH Announcement, Comments from BoC's Macklem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today's update, Palvatar breaks down a packed macro week featuring major central bank decisions from the ECB, BoJ, and BoE, alongside key U.S. data including non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and CPI. Global equities show mixed signals as Europe rebounds, Asia struggles with China's slowing economy, and Wall Street stabilizes. Meanwhile, crypto markets dip despite continued institutional adoption and regulatory developments.

Tomorrow's jobs report, Thursday's Nike results and Friday's BOJ decision are weekly highlights, but focus could stay on fast-retreating tech stocks and rising Treasury yields.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0131-1225) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The BoJ Tankan survey showed sentiment of Large Manufacturers was at the highest in four years, which supports the case for a rate hike.European bourses are entirely in the green, with US equity futures also firmer; the RTY outperforms.DXY is a touch lower, whilst the JPY outperforms amidst growing bets of a BoJ hike this week and the Tankan Survey; the Kiwi underperforms after the RBNZ Governor suggested that market conditions have tightened “beyond” what the RBNZ intended.Global bonds are firmer across the board; USTs are currently firmer by c. 5 ticks.Crude benchmarks were initially firmer, but are now mildly lower as traders digest President Zelensky's potential concessions of Ukraine's NATO membership goals; XAU gains.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI (Nov), US Advance Goods Trade Balance (Sep), Australian PMI (Dec), Speakers including Fed's Miran, Williams & RBA's Jones.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ralf Preusser is joined in discussion by Adarsh Sinha and Mark Cabana. We will review the outlook for US rates and the US dollar after this week's FOMC meeting. We also analyse the motivation and implications behind the Fed's new Reserve Management Purchases. Finally, we will also discuss the dramatic repricing of the policy outlook for the RBA, preview next week's BoJ meeting and outline our views on GBP.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Chris Jakubowski Head of FI FX Sales to discuss the fallout in the FX markets following the FOMC meeting this week and what this final meeting of the year means for the US dollar going forward. Derek and Chair also look ahead to the final full week of trading next week and discuss the BoE and BoJ meetings. Can the BoJ restore confidence to the JGB market with a rate hike and a message of more?

Join host Elizaveta Gridneva as she sits down with Nicholas Ng of Daiwa Asset Management to unpack Japan's potential shift toward higher interest rates. Together, they explore what a BOJ hike could mean for yields, market sentiment, and the strategies investors across Japan and the Asia-Pacific region are gravitating toward.

To, že jsou investice jako horská dráha, řadu lidí znervózňuje. Podle průzkumů kvůli volatilitě – tedy tomu, že hodnota akcií lítá nahoru a dolů – někteří raději neinvestují vůbec. Bojí se, že o všechno přijdou. Jenže bez tohoto rizika by akcie nenesly ani zisky. Proto by se investor neměl volatility děsit, měl by si ji oblíbit.„Já bych se na volatilitu díval jako na kamaráda, ne jako na nepřítele, kterého musím za každou cenu z portfolia dostat pryč. Ta volatilita mi pomáhá zažehnout v portfoliu nějaký oheň. Bez volatility a výnosu, který k ní patří, by to portfolio zmrazilo,“ doporučuje v podcastu Ve vatě investor Lukáš Nádvorník, který se díky akciím ve 40 letech zajistil na celý život.Český investor má rád stabilitu – spořicí účet, termínované konto nebo dluhopisy. Ví dopředu, kolik přibližně dostane. Akcie jsou oproti tomu méně předvídatelné. „Akcie je vlastně podíl na vlastnictví nějaké firmy. A ohodnocení akcií je citlivé na zprávy na trhu, na nové informace. Tomu odpovídá nějaká míra rizika. Za riziko, které podstupujeme, dostáváme nějakou výnosovou prémii. Jen díky volatilitě můžeme vydělávat hodně,“ vysvětluje Lukáš Nádvorník.*****Ve vatě. Podcast novinářky Markéty Bidrmanové. Poslechněte si konkrétní rady investorů a odborníků na téma investic, inflace, úvěrů a hypoték. Finanční „kápézetka“ pro všechny, kterým nejsou peníze ukradené.Vychází každý čtvrtek. Poslouchejte na Seznam Zprávách, Podcasty.cz nebo ve všech podcastových aplikacích.V podcastu vysvětlujeme základní finanční pojmy a principy, nejde ale o investiční poradenství.O čem byste chtěli poslouchat příště? Co máme zlepšit? A co naopak určitě neměnit? Vaše připomínky, tipy i výtky uvítáme na adrese audio@sz.cz.

APAC stocks were subdued following the lacklustre lead from Wall Street, with markets cautious ahead of the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers.RBA unsurprisingly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, although comments from RBA Governor Bullock at the press conference leaned hawkish.Ukrainian President Zelensky said talks in London were productive and there is small progress towards peace.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.1% after the cash market closed flat on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Oct), US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 22 Nov), JOLTS (Sep), EIA STEO, Speakers including ECB's Nagel, BoJ's Ueda, BoE's Ramsden, Lombardelli, Mann, Dhingra & RBNZ's Breman, Supply from UK & US, Earnings from GameStop.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Wednesday, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve has its December meeting, at which Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to deliver an interest rate cut of 0.25%.~This episode is sponsored by BTCC~BTCC 10% Deposit Bonus! ➜ https://bit.ly/PBNBTCC00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: BTCC00:30 Crypto market cap update01:10 Trump announcement soon?02:10 Kevin Hassett hints at stimmy checks incoming03:30 Hasset 80%04:10 Bloomberg: Is Hassett the right guy as Fed Chair?05:30 BOJ hike in December?06:10 Mohamed El-Erian: Fed vs Japan08:30 April 2020 lows in?09:30 QE begins in January10:00 Mohamed El-Erian: Expect hawkish cut11:15 Recession odds11:50 Bloomberg: Not a good time for long term investing but great for traders13:45 Jamie Dimon admits to debanking15:00 Tom Lee buys more16:40 Paul Atkins: Everything will be tokenized in 2 years17:20 BlackRock files for staked ETH17:45 Solana Breakpoint week18:10 US banks meeting with Senators18:50 Outro#crypto #federalreserve #bitcoin~Fed Meeting Week vs Crypto

Investors are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve decision happening later this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to push through another quarter-point interest-rate cut this week. That is despite growing unease among fellow policymakers that inflation remains too high. In Asia-Pacific, the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision and a raft of Chinese data are the key events in the week ahead. We heard from Mark Matthews, Head of Asia Research at Julius Baer. He spoke to Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong. Plus - in Japan, a slew of economic data was released. In Tokyo, labor cash earnings were released. Stronger wage gains in October bolstered the case for the Bank of Japan to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike at its Dec. 18–19 meeting. However, Japan's economy shrank in the three months through September, the government confirmed in a revised report, giving further justification for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's stimulus package announced last month. For more on what the latest Japan data means for the BoJ, we heard from Bloomberg's Brian Fowler. He spoke to Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the impact on USD/JPY from the upcoming BoJ and Fed policy meetings. USD/JPY has dropped this week as BoJ rate hike expectations have intensified, but will it continue?  

Global bond yields rise amid complicated pictures in the USA and Japan. Treasurys saw yields rise on stronger U.S. jobs data, while deepening expectations of a rate hike by the BOJ sees JGB prices fall. Elsewhere, Netflix has reportedly won the battle over Warner Bros Discovery; and Meta shares rise on reports the company is planning sweeping cuts to its ‘metaverse' unit, a former darling of CEO Mark Zuckerburg.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

APAC stocks were mixed, with the regional bourses mostly rangebound, amid light fresh catalysts ahead of US PCE data.US senators seek to block NVIDIA (NVDA) sales of advanced chips to China for 30 months and would target NVIDIA's H200 and Blackwell chips, according to FT.Russia's Kremlin said Moscow is waiting for the US reaction after the Putin-Witkoff meeting, while it added that there is no plan for a Putin-Trump call for now.BoJ is said to likely hike this month and leave the door open to more, while the central bank is to check the data and market moves up to the final decision, according to Bloomberg.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.4% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders (Oct), French Trade Balance (Oct), Italian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Employment Final (Q3), EZ GDP Revised (Q3), Canadian Jobs Report (Nov), US PCE (Sep), US University of Michigan Prelim (Dec), and Comments from ECB's Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses trade modestly firmer, with little macro news to steer price action. Sentiment follows on from a mixed and quiet APAC session.US equity futures are mixed/mostly firmer with a skew towards tech-positive as ES and NQ eke mild gains vs the YM and RTY.DXY has unwound most of its earlier losses. Initially hit by a firmer JPY on the back of more hawkish BoJ sources, coupled with verbal intervention; USTs remain flat in a thin 112-22+ to 112-27+ band.Baidu (9888 HK/ BIDU) reportedly weighs a Hong Kong IPO for its AI chip unit Kunlunxin, to rival NVIDIA (NVDA); Dell (DELL) reportedly plans price hike of 15-20% from mid December.A Russian Kremlin aide said Russia and the US are moving forward in talks relating to Ukraine. Ready for further work with the current US negotiating team.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs Report (Nov), US PCE (Sep), US University of Michigan Prelim (Dec), Comments from ECB's Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Trump admin is reportedly preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.US President Trump said the meeting between Russian President Putin, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner was a reasonably good meeting and "we'll see what happens".Trump's aides and allies were said to be discussing the possibility of Treasury Secretary Bessent also leading the NEC, according to Bloomberg; Bond investors reportedly warned the US Treasury over picking NEC Director Hassett as Fed chair, according to FT.USD/JPY pared gains after hawkish BoJ sources via Reuters suggested the central bank is likely to raise interest rates in December.APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF, EZ Retail Sales, US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims, Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators (Final), Durable Goods, Factory Orders, Atlanta Fed GDP, BoE DMP. Speakers include BoEʼs Mann, ECBʼs Lane, Cipollone & de Guindos, Fedʼs Bowman. Supply from Spain, France & UK. Earnings from Kroger & Dollar General.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European equities opened higher, reflecting positive APAC momentum, though European news flow has been light. Central bank updates included hawkish BoJ sources alongside concerns about Hassett as Fed Chair. The BoJ is likely to raise interest rates in December in a government-approved move, according to Reuters and Bloomberg sources.DXY is trading near the lower end of its 98.798–99.029 intraday range, pressured by JPY strengthFixed income benchmarks are lower following the hawkish BoJ reports, though the associated softening in risk sentiment has provided a modest haven bid as the morning unfolded.Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs (Nov), Jobless Claims (w/e 29 Nov), Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators (Final), Durable Goods (Sep), Factory Orders (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include BoE's Mann, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & de Guindos, Fed's Bowman. Earnings from Kroger & Dollar General.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending not far from worst levels. It was a fairly quiet session in the wake of the US Thanksgiving holiday. The market shook off a bit of the morning's risk-off bias tabbed to upward pressure on JGB yields amid ramping BoJ tightening expectations, as well as ongoing Bitcoin weakness following a nearly 20% decline last month.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump is bringing the country out of the Biden/Obama recession. The [CB] is trapped because they never expected Trump’s parallel economic system to be building at lightning speed. Trump is putting everything into place to transition the people from the [CB] which means we will not need the income tax. [DS] has now used one of it’s soldiers to begin the color revolution. The [DS] wants a civil war in the end and they are pushing it. Trump knows the playbook and this is why he took the path of waking the people up and building the counterinsurgency. The people must see who the true enemy is, only when the people see the enemy can we fight the enemy. Trump put all this into place for this moment. Economy https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1994238315730473327?s=20   Challenger Gray spiked +99,010, to 153,074, the highest since March. This also marks the highest monthly number for any October in 22 years. All while employees notified of mass layoffs via WARN notices tracked by Revelio rose +11,912 last month to 43,626, the 2nd-highest in at least 2 years. US layoffs are accelerating. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1994222461252980749?s=20  percentage has persisted above 90% for 12 months. Such an elevated reading has been seen only a few times over the last 35 years. Over the last 2 years, global central banks have cuts rates 316 times, the highest reading in at least 25 years. To put this into perspective, there were 313 cumulative cuts in 2008-2010 in response to the financial crisis. Global monetary policy is easing. Amazing How Central Bank Money-Printing Reversed around the World after the Inflation Shock  Balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and central banks of China, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and India as % of GDP.  The major central banks around the world have been unwinding their balance sheets for the past few years, even the Bank of Japan, which got a late start in 2024. Their balance sheets had swollen to grotesque proportions during the global QE frenzy that started in 2008, and QE-mania during and after the pandemic. But that has been getting unwound. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), an umbrella organization owned by its member central banks, released its latest quarterly data on central bank balance sheets today. We'll look at the decline of the balance sheets of nine major central banks: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, Bank of England, Central Bank of India, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Swiss National Bank. In normal times, central-bank balance sheets, including the Fed's balance sheet, grew with the economy, as measured by GDP; and the ratio of total assets as a percentage of GDP back then was low and roughly stable over the years. Years of QE then caused the ratios to explode. And years of QT have now caused the ratios to shrink dramatically.   They're all seeing the same thing: A continued threat of inflation and massive distortions and risks in asset prices, including dangerous housing bubbles that are now deflating in some markets. So they've been removing some of the fuel, to walk back from those risks. Source: wolfstreet.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1994194115467071830?s=20 Yes, President Trump did make that statement in a recent address (likely his Thanksgiving message to U.S. troops on November 27, 2025). Based on the video clip in the X post you linked, here’s the relevant excerpt from his remarks:“The next couple of years, I think we’ll substantially be cutting and maybe cutting out completely, but we’ll be cutting income tax—could be almost completely cutting it—because the money we’re taking in is going to be so large.”This aligns closely with the claim in the WatcherGuru post. Multiple news outlets have reported on the comments, confirming they are authentic and recent. For context, Trump has floated similar ideas about offsetting or replacing income taxes with tariff revenue multiple times during his campaign and presidency, though experts have questioned the feasibility due to the massive revenue gap (tariffs currently generate far less than income taxes). DOGE Geopolitical Globalist Germany's Firewall Against the AfD Collapses as Half the Country Now Open to Voting for Them For the first time since the party entered parliament about nine years ago, the anti-democratic cordon sanitaire around the right-wing, anti-globalist Alternative für Deutschland appears to have cracked wide open. According to the latest INSA/Bild poll, fewer than half of all German voters (just 49%) now say they would “never” vote AfD—down from a staggering 75% only a few years ago, This is nothing short of a historic breakthrough. Despite years of state-funded smear campaigns, constant domestic intelligence surveillance (Verfassungsschutz), court cases, job dismissals, bank account closures, repeated violence against party members by left-globalist extremists, and even serious discussions about banning the party outright, ordinary Germans are finally seeing through the propaganda and recognizing the AfD as the only serious opposition to a failing system. Source: thegatewaypundit.com    all the Liars and Pretenders of the Radical Left Media are going out of business! At the conclusion of the G20, South Africa refused to hand off the G20 Presidency to a Senior Representative from our U.S. Embassy, who attended the Closing Ceremony. Therefore, at my direction, South Africa will NOT be receiving an invitation to the 2026 G20, which will be hosted in the Great City of Miami, Florida next year. South Africa has demonstrated to the World they are not a country worthy of Membership anywhere, and we are going to stop all payments and subsidies to them, effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! War/Peace Zelensky sent aide to US talks to ‘protect’ him from corruption probe – media Zelensky appointed his chief of staff, Andrey Yermak, to head Kiev’s negotiating delegation in Geneva last weekend after learning that anti-corruption investigators were preparing a suspicion notice against the aide,The report comes amid fallout from a massive $100 million graft scheme involving the Ukrainian leader’s inner circle, including long-time associate Timur Mindich, who has been charged with running a kickback scheme in the energy sector and fled before the authorities could detain him.Surveillance of the Mindich case by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) reportedly captured conversations involving Zelensky and Yermak, potentially implicating both. Source: sott.net https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1994307774860189739?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1994307774860189739%7Ctwgr%5Ee8d979a9c10fbfc326b32333d206fa988e9c3418%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F11%2Fnew-ukraines-anti-corruption-bureau-raids-home-andriy%2F   Zelensky's chief of staff. The latest raid comes days after a $100M bribery scandal rocked Ukraine's energy sector – but no official word yet if this is linked. Neither agency has commented on the raid yet.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      NATO states considering ‘cyber offensive' against Russia – Politico NATO's European members are reportedly considering joint offensive cyber operations against Russia, Politico reported on Thursday, citing two senior EU government officials and three diplomats. Western governments are assessing cyber and other options in response to alleged “hybrid attacks” by Moscow, according to the publication. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze told Politico that NATO must “be more proactive on the cyber offensive” and better coordinate their intelligence services. “And it's not talking that sends a signal – it's doing,” she said. In late 2024, NATO unveiled plans to establish a new integrated cyber defense center at its headquarters in Belgium, which is expected to go online by 2028. Stefano Piermarocchi, the head of cyber risk management within NATO's chief information office, told Breaking Defense that the new hub would enhance Source: rt.com Russian President Vladimir Putin Gives Remarkably Detailed Explanation of Current Peace Negotiation Status – Either Ukraine Concedes Diplomatically, or We Will Win Militarily Source: theconservativetreehouse.com Medical/False Flags [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/1993883057414353293?s=20 https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1994206037998538849?s=20 https://twitter.com/AGPamBondi/status/1994194638421340290?s=20 https://twitter.com/VickieforNYC/status/1993899026651951335?s=20   foreign warzone. Yet almost every major lefty account is parroting this narrative. It’s bizarre. Like “of COURSE people are going to try and murder the National Guard, what did you expect to happen in Washington” Is this the narrative here? That Washington is Fallujah? Or is it that the left has declared a de facto state of war, and casualties are now just to be expected? It’s extremely bad either way. https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/1994054785163522357?s=20  that the President said it's times to bring in more law enforcement to make sure that a city that had the 4th highest homicide rate in the country, that that violence was quelled. I'm not even gonna go there!” Liberals have been spending the last 12 hours trying to place the blame on Trump for bringing the NG to the city. Truly unbelievable how ungrateful these people are https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1993876798866653577?s=20 https://twitter.com/thevivafrei/status/1994116243154973175?s=20   intentions, everything takes on a whole new meaning. https://twitter.com/ZannSuz/status/1993859778414580217?s=20 https://twitter.com/JLRINVESTIGATES/status/1994214556671889810?s=20 https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/1994118842239610989?s=20   dive here. As always, patience as I pull together the thread: https://twitter.com/TPASarah/status/1994015487135514931 Sarah Adams@TPASarah Lakanwal, from Khost Province, Afghanistan, was a member of two CIA-supported units that operated under the National Directorate of Security (NDS) of the former Afghan Republic. Although these units belonged to the NDS on paper, their support and direction came directly from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). He served in Unit 01, a special military-intelligence unit responsible for the central zone provinces (Kabul, Parwan, Wardak, and Logar). His agency training in 2007 took place at CIA's Eagle Base near the Deh Sabz district of Kabul province, a few miles from Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA). Eagle Camp, originally built on an old brick factory site, became one of the CIA's most important counterterrorism training centers in the early 2000s. It trained the CIA-backed NDS units including NDS-01, NDS-02, NDS-03, NDS-04, NDS-KPF, and NDS-KSF, and also housed an ammunition depot and multiple facilities for sensitive operations. When U.S. forces left Afghanistan in 2021, Eagle Camp was among the final sites to be evacuated and demolished. It was later handed over to the Haqqani Network's suicide bomber brigade, the Badri 313. Badri 313 moved the suicide bombers through the gate areas of HKIA for the Abbey Gate attack that killed 13 of our servicemembers and approximately 170 Afghans on August 26, 2021. After completing training at Eagle Base, Lakanwal was transferred to the team supporting CIA's Kandahar Base. The site had a long militant history: it housed Mullah Mohammad Omar from 1994–2001, Osama bin Laden from 1998–2001, and later Camp Gecko from 2002–2021, which was used by the CIA and NDS-03. It served as the headquarters of the Kandahar Strike Force, which led CIA-backed counterterrorism operations in Kandahar, Uruzgan, and Zabul provinces against the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and ISIS. Lakanwal took part in counterterrorism missions alongside U.S. forces in Kandahar. After the attack yesterday on our National Guardsmen in Washington, DC, ISIS channels were the first to praise the incident largely because Lakanwal's half-brother (the son of his father's second wife, pictured left) had been a recruiter for the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (ISKP). His brother, Muawiyah Khurasani aka Hayatullah (pictured below), previously worked with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Orakzai Agency, Pakistan, before formally joining ISKP. He was killed in a targeted operation in July 2022 in Achin district, Nangarhar province. Some ISIS members claimed he was killed by Pakistan's Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD), though that remains unconfirmed. After the fall of Kabul in 2021, Lakanwal's unit the Kandahar Protection Force and the Khost Protection Force (KPF) became prime targets for both the Haqqani Network and ISKP, which sought either to blackmail or recruit former KPF members. Recruitment involved persuading them to join voluntarily; blackmail involved coercing them through threats to their families (many were left behind), exposure of past work with the U.S., or financial pressure. Both groups targeted these units specifically because of their close relationships on U.S. soil, particularly with former CIA officers. In addition, both groups, along with al-Qaeda, saw value in impersonating these units. A couple thousand fake documents and ID cards were produced so terrorists could claim affiliation with KPF/01/02 and other special units. This allowed some individuals to fraudulently move through the U.S. evacuation process by exploiting unsuspecting volunteers and taking advantage of weak vetting procedures. We have confirmed that Lakanwal's ID (pictured right) and employment were legitimate, but a full review is recommended, as terrorists have explicitly claimed using this route as a pipeline into the U.S. We cannot keep waiting for Americans to be killed again and again before we act against the Islamist terrorists who have arrived on our soil since 2021. This can no longer fall on the shoulders of a small handful of people sounding the alarm. Every American needs to be engaged: protecting their families, their communities, and our homeland. Please prepare today! https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1993925420329390316?s=20  action force of the AFN who fought directly alongside U.S. Special Forces against the Taliban. In addition, Fox News is reporting that Lakanwal worked with various other government entities from the United States in Afghanistan, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), specifically as part of the CIA-backed Kandahar Strike Force (KSF), known in most intelligence circles as NDS-03, which operated outside of U.S. and Afghan military chain-of-commands directly under the CIA, carrying out covert, clandestine, counterterrorism operations, including night raids and assassinations against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/1993878815349854361?s=20 CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed that to Fox. “In the wake of the disastrous Biden withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden administration justified bringing the alleged shooter to the United States in September 2021 due to his prior work with the U.S. government, including CIA, as a member of a partner force in Kandahar, which ended shortly following the chaotic evacuation,” CIA Director John Ratcliffe told Fox News Digital. “The individual—and so many others—should have never been allowed to come here,” Ratcliffe continued. “Our citizens and service members deserve far better than to endure the ongoing fallout from the Biden administration's catastrophic failures.” Ratcliffe added: “God bless our brave troops.” https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1994201842750837067?s=20 https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1993882348069552531?s=20 https://twitter.com/CannConActual/status/1993693224196604379?s=20  at a colour revolution. @ColonelTowner and@xAlphaWarriorx have done a good job documenting several. We have been overwhelmingly resistant to these efforts on our homeland through the use of NGOs funding widespread protests and subsequent riots. And as President Trump cut the head off their private sector funding apparatuses (USAID, NED, etc), they are becoming desperate. So they politicized the military, subverted the Constitutional authority of the Commander in Chief, and injected themselves in a chain of command they are NOT a part of. The desperate attempt to execute their plan. This is life or death for the Deep State. https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/1993886979738460646?s=20 There are three phases to a Color Revolution. It’s important to understand this so you can see how the actions of the Sedition 6 fit into this pattern. PHASE ONE: -Form underground opposition networks. -Create strong slogans and powerful information operations as recruitment tools. -Upon a certain well-coordinated signal, well-funded, well-organized mass protests “spontaneously” appear. -The armed wing of the movement conducts carefully coordinated, precision attacks on certain government infrastructure. PHASE TWO:  -Discredit military, security, and law enforcement forces through information operations, coordination with friendly media (Jimmy Kimmel? Talkin’ to you, Komrade Kelly), strikes, civil disobedience, rioting, and sabotage. yOU ARE HER -Occupy civic facilities and refuse to leave until your demands are met. -Strengthen and grow a highly organized logistics support network. -Issue ultimatums to the government, threatening violent uprisings if demands are unmet. The goal is to either have the government acquiesce or engage in violent repression, in each case thereby delegitimizing itself. PHASE THREE:  -Overthrow the government in a “non-violent” manner that is actually quite violent. -Open attacks on authorities, seizure of government buildings, destruction of government symbols. -Coordinate media messaging. If the government attacks, media will accuse the government of attacking “peaceful protestors.” If the government makes concessions, it will appear impotent because protestors will not compromise. -Widespread delegitimization of the government is effective in the minds of the populace; the government either willingly cedes power or is violently removed. -The once underground opposition forces’ leadership now seizes control of the government.   prisons, mental institutions, gangs, or drug cartels. They and their children are supported through massive payments from Patriotic American Citizens who, because of their beautiful hearts, do not want to openly complain or cause trouble in any way, shape, or form. They put up with what has happened to our Country, but it's eating them alive to do so! A migrant earning $30,000 with a green card will get roughly $50,000 in yearly benefits for their family. The real migrant population is much higher. This refugee burden is the leading cause of social dysfunction in America, something that did not exist after World War II (Failed schools, high crime, urban decay, overcrowded hospitals, housing shortages, and large deficits, etc.). As an example, hundreds of thousands of refugees from Somalia are completely taking over the once great State of Minnesota. Somalian gangs are roving the streets looking for “prey” as our wonderful people stay locked in their apartments and houses hoping against hope that they will be left alone. The seriously retarded Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, does nothing, either through fear, incompetence, or both, while the worst “Congressman/woman” in our Country, Ilhan Omar, always wrapped in her swaddling hijab, and who probably came into the U.S.A. illegally in that you are not allowed to marry your brother, does nothing but hatefully complain about our Country, its Constitution, and how “badly” she is treated, when her place of origin is a decadent, backward, and crime ridden nation, which is essentially not even a country for lack of Government, Military, Police, schools, etc…    denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization. These goals will be pursued with the aim of achieving a major reduction in illegal and disruptive populations, including those admitted through an unauthorized and illegal Autopen approval process. Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation. Other than that, HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL, except those that hate, steal, murder, and destroy everything that America stands for — You won't be here for long! Trump Orders Green Card Review in the Wake of Shooting by Afghan on Overstay President Trump's Plan (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the pound's reaction to the UK budget. If the yen continues to weaken will it encourage the BoJ to bring forward rate hike plans?  

„Mrzí mě, jak se v Čechách pohlíží na umělce. Lidé si často myslí, že jsou automaticky bohatí. To je ale velký omyl,“ říká producentka Olga Menzelová v Blízkých setkáních s Adélou Gondíkovou. Právě proto založila Nadační fond Jiřího Menzela, který pomáhá slavným osobnostem, když už nejsou v záři reflektorů. „Řada z nich žije velmi skromně a o pomoc se stydí říct. Bojí se bulváru,“ dodává. Jak prožívala odchod svého manžela? A proč si už nebarví vlasy?Všechny díly podcastu Blízká setkání můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, where stocks were underpinned amid Russia/Ukraine optimism and a softer yield environment.US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy.Nikkei 225 shrugged off a source report that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call; JPY strengthened, 10yr JGB futures trickled lower.NZD outperformed after the RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, as expected, and kept its options open on future policy, although its projections suggested a pause in rates throughout 2026.White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is reportedly seen as the frontrunner in the Fed Chair search, according to Bloomberg citing sources, although separate sources said “there is no frontrunner”.Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Jobless Claims (w/e 22 Nov), UK Autumn Budget, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including ECB's Vujcic, Lane & Lagarde, Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy.European bourses are entirely in the green, with the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) trading cautiously ahead of the UK Autumn Budget; US equity futures are modestly firmer.DXY is essentially flat, NZD outperforms after the RBNZ cut rates by 25bps (as expected), but projections suggest a pause throughout 2026.JPY initially strengthened on reports that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call; JPY is now lower vs USD.Bonds are on the backfoot, paring recent upside; Gilts initially lagged, but now trading in-line with peers as traders eye Chancellor Reeves.Crude is a little lower as focus remains on Russia/Ukraine peace talks, 3M LME Copper surges.Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Jobless Claims (w/e 22 Nov), UK Autumn Budget, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Dario Catodici known as JustDario on X is the co-founder Synnax Technologies, a universal credit rating standard for digital asset and conventional private credit markets. He talks why the Japan carry trade is important for everyone to be paying attention to, how the BOJ might respond, possible bailout in the AI bubble and much more. PLEASE SUBSCRIBE LIKE AND SHARE THIS PODCAST!!!   Watch Show Rumble- https://rumble.com/v71z4xs-japans-inflation-surprise-justdario-on-x.html YouTube- https://youtu.be/bjBQIrqcQpc   Follow Me X- https://x.com/CoffeeandaMike IG- https://www.instagram.com/coffeeandamike/ Facebook- https://www.facebook.com/CoffeeandaMike/ YouTube- https://www.youtube.com/@Coffeeandamike Rumble- https://rumble.com/search/all?q=coffee%20and%20a%20mike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Apple Podcasts- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coffee-and-a-mike/id1436799008 Gab- https://gab.com/CoffeeandaMike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Website- www.coffeeandamike.com Email- info@coffeeandamike.com   Support My Work Venmo- https://www.venmo.com/u/coffeeandamike Paypal- https://www.paypal.com/biz/profile/Coffeeandamike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Patreon- http://patreon.com/coffeeandamike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Cash App- https://cash.app/$coffeeandamike Buy Me a Coffee- https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeandamike Bitcoin- coffeeandamike@strike.me   Mail Check or Money Order- Coffee and a Mike LLC P.O. Box 25383 Scottsdale, AZ 85255-9998   Follow Dario X- https://x.com/DarioCpx?s=20 Website- https://justdario.com/   Sponsors Vaulted/Precious Metals- https://vaulted.blbvux.net/coffeeandamike McAlvany Precious Metals- https://mcalvany.com/coffeeandamike/ Independence Ark Natural Farming- https://www.independenceark.com/

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.