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Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami and Danny Moses discuss rising global yields and stress points in markets, focusing on Japan's weakening yen, deteriorating bond market, and risks around Japan's role as a major US Treasury holder and potential carry-trade unwind, with BOJ and Fed meetings ahead. They note August's tendency toward volatility and how attention may shift from strong earnings to macro concerns as AI-driven CapEx pressures free cash flow at hyperscalers, raising valuation questions and fears of open-source competition. They preview key earnings including Apple (seen as a defensive AI conduit despite a rich valuation), Microsoft, Meta, and major energy firms, which may post strong results but avoid political blowback. They discuss mixed consumer signals from Capital One, AmEx, and retailers, reiterate a constructive longer-term view on gold tied to Fed policy, and share updates on Moses's podcasts, Substack work, and a veterans charity event. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
In the second part of our economic roundtable, Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya join Seth Carpenter to discuss how central banks are balancing sticky inflation, resilient growth and regional policy trade-offs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again today, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, the Chief U.S. Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist, and on the other side of the world, Chetna Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist. Yesterday, we talked about what's supporting growth around the world, especially AI spending in the U.S. and some government spending in Europe, and Asia's role in making all of this happen. Today, we're going to try to dig deeper and go into policy. It's Tuesday, July 21st at 10 am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since the last time we did this in mid-April, I will say the debate around central banks has probably become more complicated. Global growth has held up, probably better than many people expected. And inflation, which picked up a lot, started to recede. But it has not gone away. And some of the forces helping to shape the economy, the AI spending, government spending, that possible upswing in manufacturing, that could keep demand strong, and it might keep pushing inflation higher. So, the question today is, if growth remains resilient, how much room really do central banks have to navigate? Mike, let me start with you because your call for the Fed here in the U.S. is out of consensus, or at least at odds with where the market is pricing things. We talked about the demand going from AI. You pointed out that imports are actually limiting how much domestic demand there is. So, what is the underlying story for inflation in the U.S.? And what does it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: So, our view is that inflation will come down in the U.S. So, we think disinflation will be driven by some payback in energy prices. Some payback from tariffs, which have pushed up goods prices over the last year. And some further diminishment in housing-related inflation, namely shelter. So, we think on a broad-based perspective, inflation has already peaked and will start moving lower. And we think we've seen evidence of this in recent inflation prints. A risk to that, though, is from the demand side of the economy and AI-related inflation in two parts. One, higher software prices, chipflation. So, the pass-through of some of the AI pricing components. Fortunately, here, they're about less than 1 percent of the consumer basket. So, we don't think that there's a great risk, a strong risk, a high risk of AI-related inflation in the consumer bundle. I think the real risk is that maybe we underestimate broad-based demand, animal spirits. And so, you might just see a broad-based increase in inflation from stronger demand. That'll be a little bit harder to see in real times. But our expectation is that inflation moves lower to about 3 percent, by the end of this year and closer to 2.5 percent next year. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks, Mike. And in fact, the most recent inflation report that we just got confirms your perspective that inflation should be coming down. And so, I guess the question then remains: What would it take for the Fed to hike this year if inflation has come down like we've seen? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the answer there is that inflation wouldn't come down in line with our expectations. So, if the view is that energy prices, tariffs, and shelter inflation should provide plenty of offset and bring inflation down, I think the answer is you don't get payback. Explicitly, core goods prices stay elevated. Maybe we get ongoing disruptions in the Middle East that push energy prices higher and create second-round effects. So, I think inflation just lingering at elevated levels could mean the Fed gets brought in to raise rates in September or later this year. We think if they're patient enough, they'll see enough disinflation to keep them on the sidelines. But the risk is disinflation forecast is too optimistic, inflation stays firm, the Fed needs to raise rates. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, what about for you and the ECB? They've already raised interest rates once this year. I think you've got a forecast for them raising interest rates again in September. What could make you wrong about that forecast? What's going to make you convinced that you're right about that forecast? And is there a similar tension that the ECB is wrestling with that Mike talked about for the Fed? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah. I mean, starting with the last part of your question, I think no doubt, very similar tension. Just that, of course, it's less obvious. It's essentially a nuanced European version instead of the loud American version that we always stereotypically think the world looks like. So, essentially, we have here clearly not an AI boom. That, I mean, there's no question. And we have discussed that yesterday. Still, there is certainly the notion that the world demand is not really weak, and some of this will also arrive in Europe. And so, you have that tension between maybe there's more resilience than we had thought, and so inflation will not come down through to slack as much. And so, we might actually add something here in terms of monetary restrictiveness. Now, the other thing that is often forgotten, even though it's blatantly obvious, the starting point is just different. The ECB is running neutral monetary policy by all accounts. I mean, you could say 2 percent is neutral, and now they are 2.25. But, you know, there are ranges of uncertainty around any estimate. And the latest that they published runs – goes from 1.75 to 2;2.5. So basically, even if they were to increase rates to 2.5 in September, you could go with the microphone around the governing council, and you would probably find a lot of people saying, "Well, this is still a neutral policy." That's probably not the case for the U.S. So, I guess this matters here for that debate too. Seth Carpenter: All right. Yesterday we talked about lots of different things, but for Europe, we brought up fiscal policy. How do you think about fiscal policy and how it affects monetary policy? And so, I'm thinking about two channels. One, how much does the ECB care that if they keep pushing up interest rates, they're going to increase the debt service burden for countries that are already facing high debt costs? And second, is fiscal policy going to be the extra impetus for inflation that forces even more rate hikes from the ECB? Jens Eisenschmidt: I guess it depends on who you ask. Certainly, more concerned members in the governing council that would point to exactly that fiscal stimulus as a reason why interest rates have to be increased further from here. The other answer I would give is – probably for now at least, the view on fiscal policy is really model-based. You look at what type of increase in interest rate gets you essentially more fiscal restraint because there's an increase in interest rate bill and so less spending somewhere else. And that gets you basically less stimulus or less growth, I mean, very roughly speaking. I don't think it's a major concern for now. We haven't reached yet interest rates where this would start to play a role. I guess, again, Europe being fragmented as it is, with all the political risk that's around the corner. Think about the elections in France and Italy and Spain next year. That will very likely find itself expressed in spreads. And so, the higher the interest rates are, the larger the spreads could become. Seth Carpenter: So, for each of you, there's clearly a role for inflation. One of the risks we'll talk about maybe is inflation expectations and how maybe there's a big shift in what's going on with inflation. But Chetan, that brings me to you and Asia, because one economy where there unquestionably has been a fundamental shift in inflation and inflation expectation over the past several years is Japan. The Bank of Japan is on this normalization path where they're raising interest rates. Interest rates had been negative and then zero, and now they're gradually raising things up. Inflation has come back to Japan. Markets are looking at what the Bank of Japan is likely to do. Can you tell us a little bit about what our view is for the Bank of Japan this year and next? And what might make them hike interest rates faster than we think? And is there any risk that in fact they hike interest rates slower than we think? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we are expecting BoJ to hike twice from here. The first rate hike is coming up in December of this year, and then another one coming up in June of next year. And then we think that, you know, the underlying inflation trend in Japan is not really that strong. So, while market pricing is for about three more rate hikes instead of two that we are building in our base case. And some of the macro investors are even talking about four more rate hikes. We think the underlying inflation trend warrants a caution and BoJ to go slowly than what the market is pricing in and what the macro investors are saying in. And the key part of our framework on thinking about Japan's inflation is that bulk of the explanation to inflation rise in Japan lies in currency moves. And secondarily, you can look at also the other drivers are more from supply side, which is higher energy prices or food prices. Whereas it's not driven so much by demand. To elaborate further on why it is not driven by demand, when you look at Japan's consumption trend, and if you index it to hundred at pre-COVID levels in September [20]19 then it's currently about 101; i.e., that it's just about 1 percent up over the last seven years. So that's a very tepid trend of consumption demand. And therefore, we don't think that BoJ needs to rush into hike in a more aggressive pace going forward. Seth Carpenter: So, there is this fundamental shift, but boy, it's not on a tear, and so the BoJ can take its time. You know, Chetan, it's hard to wrap up a conversation about the global economy without talking about China. I get the sense that there's not a lot going on with monetary policy, but we did just see a soft Q2 GDP print. So, against that backdrop, what should we be expecting in terms of policy? Is there any monetary policy coming? Or is there going to be some fiscal expansion? Or is China just sort of stuck in this lower gear? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we were also surprised by the soft GDP print. But when you look into the data, actually, it was interestingly doing well on exports. And I mentioned earlier about how the global CapEx trend is helping Asia. It's definitely helping China too. But at the same time, China's domestic demand turned out to be quite weak. And particularly in the areas where we think that the policy response can be providing some help, i.e., infrastructure spend, was also very weak. And therefore, we are expecting that in the back half of the year, you will see the government taking up some fiscal expansion. Not new stimulus announcement, but whatever they had budgeted. They have enough room within that to utilize that budget and actually increase that fiscal spending towards infrastructure. We have about 2 trillion RMB worth of funds available for the government to go ahead and spend in the second half. And then lift that growth trend, which has dipped to 4.3 percent in second quarter to back to 4.6 percent in the back half of the year. Seth Carpenter: You know what? Maybe that's a great place for us to leave it. We've gone around the world again today, but this time focusing much more on policy. In the U.S., the Fed is facing this interesting situation. We think inflation is coming down. The last CPI print went in our favor. And so as a result, our forecast is that the Fed doesn't change policy at all this year. But it's going to come down to the data, and in particular, whether or not Mike and his team are right in terms of where inflation is going. In Europe, the ECB has already raised interest rates once this year. Jens and team are looking for another interest rate hike. The ECB really does seem more sensitive to inflation coming from the energy shock, but there are lots of other crosscurrents that they're paying attention to as well. And then the other major developed market central bank, the Bank of Japan, is on this normalization path. They are in the process of raising interest rates, but Chetan pointed out to us that the growth rate is such that they don't have to be in any sort of hurry, and they can take their time. So, with that, Mike, Jens, Chetan, thank you so much for helping us connect all of these dots. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors to discuss shifting Fed communication under Kevin Warsh, including a push away from strong forward guidance like recent comments from Waller. Emons distinguishes disinflation from deflation, noting a negative month-to-month CPI driven by energy declines but warning energy has already rebounded, making expectations volatile. He highlights “funflation” in categories like recreation and food away from home alongside broad underlying price pressures. The group debates whether AI is inflationary, with Emons pointing to supply-constrained memory prices and AI-related investment as drivers, and discusses IBM's sharp drop after clients shifted CapEx toward servers, storage, and memory. They also cover Middle East Strait closures adding an oil war premium, positioning risks across crude, rates, and equities, yen weakness and potential BOJ action, and heightened volatility and leverage in a “Parabolic Seven” chip/memory cohort that could trigger broader market rotation and tightening financial conditions. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Ena od najbolj udarnih obljub iz koalicijske pogodbe - zakonska podlaga za organ, ki bi preganjal korupcijo SKOK - je nared. Boj proti najzahtevnejšim primerom korupcije, gospodarskega ter organiziranega kriminala in terorizma bi tekel v enotni specializirani verigi, ki se ji med drugim pridružuje novo sodišče. Odzivi stroke so skopi, nezaupljiva do ukrepov je generalna državna tožilka Katarina Bergant. V oddaji tudi o tem: - Predsednica Pirc Musarjeva zavajanje poslanca Borisa Mijića glede izobrazbe označila za nedopustno. - Iran grozi, da bo poleg Hormuške ožine zaprl še več izvoznih poti. - Koroški župani nezadovoljni s potekom graditve hitre ceste. Kaj jim obljublja novi infrastrukturni minister?
The Iran deal is dead again, ships are getting hit in the Gulf, and the ten year is back above four point five five. Marty and John sort through the latest Middle East escalation, why both sides actually want the conflict to keep going, and what it means for oil, LNG, and bond volatility. They dig into Japan's thirty year yield highs and the delicate balance the BOJ is walking, Mohamed El-Erian vouching for Bessent's industrial policy in the New York Times, and why the MOVE index might matter more than the absolute rate level. They also cover Circle's bank charter approval, the OpenUSD consortium bringing Wall Street and Silicon Valley together around the digital dollar, and the growing turf war over who gets to run America's strategic Bitcoin reserve.
„Pane, keby si chcel, mohol by si ma očistiť.“ Evanjelium podľa Matúša 8:2 Hriešnik zažije veľa prehier, kým príde chvíľa, keď Ježišovi povie: Pane, keby si chcel, mohol by si ma očistiť. Najskôr sa snažíš hriech vysvetliť. Porovnávaš sa s inými a myslíš si, že nie si horší ako oni. Nech je ako chce, pred Božou tvárou nemôžeš hriech ospravedlniť. On ťa vidí skrz-naskrz. Pozná hlboké zákutia tvojho srdca. Nič nečisté, čo sa tam nachádza, nie je pred Ním skryté. Keď si to hriešnik uvedomí, začína bojovať, aby sa oslobodil od hriechu. Hriech sa ale nedá zmyť. Je ako malomocenstvo. Pochádza zvnútra, z najhlbšieho vnútra. Bez ohľadu na to, čo robíš, na koreň hriechu nedosiahneš. Vyráža z tvojho srdca — niekedy jedným spôsobom, inokedy iným. Preto skončíš ako stratený človek. Jedného dňa sa budeš musieť postaviť pred Hospodinovu tvár a otvorene povedať: Chcem byť kresťanom, ale nezvládam to. Nedokážem sám seba očistiť. Vidíš, že vyzeráš ako ten malomocný? Boj, túžby ani úsilie nepomáhajú. Existuje len Jeden, ktorý nás môže zachrániť, a tým je Ježiš. Pane, keby si chcel, mohol by si ma zachrániť! Zdá sa byť strašné, že to musím povedať, ale to nie je strašné. V skutočnosti je to pre teba len požehnanie. Keď si človek uvedomuje vlastnú biedu a úbohosť, pripravuje cestu pre Ježiša. Ježiša môžeš uchopiť len prázdnymi rukami. Pokiaľ na svojej ceste bojuješ tak, že sa zdokonaľuješ, nepočuješ Ježišov hlas. Keď si však bezmocný, dokážeš počuť Jeho požehnané slová: „Chcem, buď čistý!“ Tri obyčajné slová, no v nich je ukrytá celá plnosť spásy. Len si predstav, Ježiš to chce! Nielenže chce, On naťahuje k tebe ruku a dotýka sa ťa. Tak funguje záchrana. Ježiš prichádza k tebe. Dovoľuje, aby ťa prikryla a očistila Jeho krv. Budeš biely ako sneh. Vtedy ťa Boh vidí bez hriechu. Si Ježišova čistá a svätá nevesta. Hans Erik Nissen
Ethics concerns from Senate Democrats remain the biggest obstacle for the upper chamber to pass a crypto market structure bill. Meanwhile, whales are still buying Ethereum ETFs. ~This Episode is Sponsored by OKX~ Trade RLUSD/XRP on OKX + claim the new user offer! Deposit $100 to get $50 ➜ https://bit.ly/OKXRP Use code: paulbarron *Terms Apply* 00:10 Sponsor: OKX 00:50 Tingling feeling 01:10 Scott Melker: Bottom building 02:40 Matt Hougan: Feels like 2019 05:10 BTC in 2019 06:20 ETFs rising 270K BTC in 30days 07:10 Vanguard bends the knee? 08:10 July rally? 08:30 Institution loading up on ETH 09:00 ETH/BTC in 2019 09:45 Robinhood chain ETH Unlock 11:30 Fed blames AI for inflation 12:50 Bloomberg: AI will take time 14:15 CNBC: Inflation vs politics 16:15 CNBC: The market vs the fed minutes 17:10 BOJ precursor? 17:45 Iran's leverage 18:20 Strategy earnings 18:45 CLARITY mess #crypto #bitcoin #ethereum ~Institutional Buying Spree?
Les banques centrales du monde entier ont décidé de se mobiliser contre la force du dollar US sur le FX, avec des interventions parfois très directes. Vincent Ganne passe en revue les grands thèmes FX du moment et ce retour de l'action des banques centrales qui ont et vont avoir un fort impact sur le trading du marché des changes.
Iran's IRGC fired at least two missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing a US official. It was separately reported that one was a Qatari LNG tanker.Fars reported that the Qatari tanker attempted to pass through the Omani route and ignored repeated warnings.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue.KOSPI slumped following post-earnings losses in Samsung Electronics (-9.7%). Co. topped forecasts, but failed to calm fears surrounding elevated valuations. European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open.DXY is incrementally firmer, whilst the JPY marginally outperforms after a Japanese official pushed back on reports that the government is urging the BoJ to lower interest rates.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production (May), French Trade Balance (May), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Trade Balance (May), New York Fed SCE (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Canadian Trade Balance (May), Ivey PMI (Jun), EIA STEO (Jul), NATO Ankara Summit. Supply from the UK, Germany and the US. Speakers include BoE's Mann.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Iran's IRGC fired at least two missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing a US official. It was separately reported that one was a Qatari LNG tanker. Brent Sept'26 +1.2%.Fars reported that the Qatari tanker attempted to pass through the Omani route and ignored repeated warnings.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue.Global tech stocks fall after Samsung Electronics (-6.9%) shares plummeted post-earnings; NQ -1%.DXY is incrementally firmer, JPY marginally outperforms after a Japanese official pushed back on reports that the government is urging the BoJ to lower interest rates.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Trade Balance (May), New York Fed SCE (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Canadian Trade Balance (May), Ivey PMI (Jun), EIA STEO (Jul), NATO Ankara Summit. Supply from the US. Speakers include BoE's Mann.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Katastrofa ekologiczna po likwidacji kopalni cynku i ołowiu w gminie Bolesław z każdym dniem przynosi kolejne destrukcyjne skutki, co budzi przerażenie wśród mieszkańców. Hanna Tracz w wywiadzie z mieszkanką rozmawia o obecnej, realnej sytuacji w gminie. Boją się, że zabraknie im dachu nad głową.
VOV1 - Đồng Yên giảm xuống mức thấp nhất so với đồng đôla kể từ năm 1986, bất chấp việc Ngân hàng Trung ương Nhật Bản liên tục điều chỉnh tăng lãi suất nhằm bình thường hóa chính sách tiền tệ.Đà mất giá kéo dài của đồng nội tệ làm gia tăng sức ép đối với Chính phủ Nhật Bản và thị trường ngày càng kỳ vọng Tokyo sẽ phải can thiệp để ổn định tỷ giá. Theo dữ liệu của Sở giao dịch chứng khoán Luân Đôn (LSEG), đồng Yên có thời điểm giao dịch ở mức 162,19 yên đổi 1 USD, mức thấp nhất trong gần 4 thập kỷ. Diễn biến này ngay lập tức thu hút sự chú ý của thị trường, nhất là sau khi Nhật Bản đã chi hơn 11,7 nghìn tỷ yên từ cuối tháng 4 đến cuối tháng 5 để hỗ trợ đồng tiền.Bộ trưởng Tài chính Nhật Bản Satsuki Katayama khẳng định chính phủ sẵn sàng hành động nếu thị trường xuất hiện những biến động quá mức. Trong khi đó, Chánh Văn phòng Nội các Minoru Kihara cho biết chính phủ sẽ tiếp tục xây dựng một nền kinh tế ít phụ thuộc hơn vào biến động tỷ giá, đồng thời vẫn duy trì khả năng can thiệp thị trường ngoại hối khi cần thiết. Tuy nhiên, ông từ chối bình luận về mức tỷ giá hiện tại của đồng yên.Theo chuyên gia Ruth Carson tại Mỹ, việc đồng Yên liên tiếp lập mức thấp mới có thể làm gia tăng áp lực trong nước, qua đó khiến khả năng chính phủ phải hành động trở nên lớn hơn. Tuy nhiên, bà cho rằng hiệu quả của bất kỳ đợt can thiệp nào cũng chỉ mang tính tạm thời.“Điều mà thị trường đang quan tâm lúc này là khả năng Chính phủ Nhật Bản can thiệp vào thị trường ngoại hối. Câu hỏi không còn là liệu khả năng đó có tồn tại hay không, mà là nó đang ở gần đến mức nào và khi nào các nhà chức trách sẽ thực sự hành động. Cần lưu ý rằng tỷ giá USD/JPY không tăng vọt trong thời gian ngắn mà đã leo dần trong một thời gian. Tốc độ mất giá của đồng Yên là một trong những yếu tố quan trọng mà giới chức Nhật Bản theo dõi khi cân nhắc việc can thiệp. Nếu đồng Yên lao dốc nhanh và mạnh, thị trường chắc chắn sẽ phải đặt trong trạng thái cảnh giác cao.”Ngân hàng Trung ương Nhật Bản (BOJ) mới đây đây đã nâng lãi suất chuẩn lên 1%, mức cao nhất kể từ năm 1995, tiếp tục lộ trình bình thường hóa chính sách tiền tệ bắt đầu từ năm 2024. Tuy nhiên, động thái này vẫn chưa đủ để đảo ngược xu hướng suy yếu của đồng Yên, khi thị trường tiếp tục kỳ vọng Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ (Fed) sẽ duy trì mặt bằng lãi suất cao, qua đó giữ khoảng cách đáng kể về lãi suất giữa 2 nền kinh tế.Theo giới phân tích, chính chênh lệch lãi suất này đang thúc đẩy các giao dịch chênh lệch lãi suất (carry trade), trong đó nhà đầu tư vay đồng Yên với chi phí thấp để đầu tư vào các tài sản có lợi suất cao hơn ở nước ngoài, qua đó tạo thêm áp lực giảm giá đối với đồng tiền Nhật Bản.Cùng với diễn biến trên thị trường tiền tệ, lợi suất trái phiếu chính phủ Nhật Bản cũng tăng mạnh ở các kỳ hạn siêu dài. Trên thị trường chứng khoán, chỉ số Nikkei 225 có thời điểm tăng hơn 1.100 điểm, tương đương hơn 1,6%, nhờ lực mua quay trở lại đối với nhóm cổ phiếu trí tuệ nhân tạo và chất bán dẫn sau giai đoạn điều chỉnh. Tuy nhiên, áp lực chốt lời xuất hiện về cuối phiên khiến chỉ số thu hẹp đáng kể đà tăng và dao động trong biên độ hẹp.Đồng Yên yếu tiếp tục mang lại lợi ích cho các doanh nghiệp xuất khẩu và hỗ trợ thị trường chứng khoán Nhật Bản duy trì vùng đỉnh lịch sử. Tuy nhiên, mặt trái là chi phí nhập khẩu, đặc biệt đối với năng lượng và nguyên liệu được thanh toán bằng USD, tiếp tục tăng cao, làm gia tăng áp lực lạm phát và bào mòn sức mua của các hộ gia đình. Điều đó khiến việc ổn định tỷ giá trở thành một trong những thách thức kinh tế lớn nhất đối với Chính phủ Nhật Bản trong giai đoạn hiện nay./. Thu Hoài/VOV1Đồng yên lao dốc xuống mức thấp nhất trong 40 năm
Brian Szytel recaps markets on June 30, the last day of Q2, noting a strong first half for the Dow and the best Nasdaq quarter since 2020, with tech leading as the Dow rose 136 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% while the 10-year yield increased 8 bps. He highlights the Japanese yen at its weakest versus the dollar in over 40 years (~162), describing the yen carry trade and warning that BOJ interventions (about 11 trillion yen) and rate hikes could trigger volatility like August 2024. He also discusses rising system leverage, with margin debt up 54% year over year to about $1.4T and the risks of triple-leveraged single-stock ETFs for retail investors. Economic data included weaker consumer confidence, stronger JOLTS openings with steady quits, lower Chicago PMI, and softer Case-Shiller home prices (down monthly, +0.7% YoY). 00:00 Market Wrap Q2 Finale 01:32 Yen Weakness And Carry Trade 02:40 BOJ Intervention Risks 03:47 Leverage Rising In Markets 04:22 Margin Debt And Leveraged ETFs 05:51 Economic Data Roundup 06:48 Closing Thoughts And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Get ready for the hottest beats on the 'MOC Mix Party'! Join Metro Beatz as he takes you on a crazy musical journey every Friday afternoon. This week Metro Beatz spins tracks from Keri Hilson, Drake, Mya, Omarion, Nina Sky, T.I., BOJ, Ayra Starr, Window Kid, French Montana, Max B and a whole lot more. This is the ultimate party you don't want to miss! Tune in and turn up the volume every Friday afternoon at 2pm as we unleash the energy of the 'MOC Mix Party'. Feel the beats as Metro Beatz creates an electrifying atmosphere that will keep you grooving all day long! Featured Artists: Keri Hilson, Drake, Mya, Omarion, Nina Sky, T.I., BOJ, Ayra Starr, Window Kid, French Montana, Max B and more. Broadcasting Schedule: Fridays at 2pm.
Dnes vás v jednoduché angličtině vezmu na některé z nejdůležitějších cest mého života. Připraveni? Tak pojďme na to!
After a busy week of central bank meetings, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Nico Jan Thiesen, Global Client Sales to discuss the implications for the FX markets. The Fed meeting impact on the dollar, the BoJ impact on the yen and the BoE impact on the pound are discussed as are the implications for EUR cross currency risks given the potential for moves in the US dollar.
A.M. Edition for June 16. President Trump's Iran deal may be providing relief for markets, but central bankers are not convinced the inflation spike is over yet, with the BOJ and RBA warning of higher prices for longer. Plus, WSJ tech reporter Georgia Wells details how AI is supercharging deepfake nudes, with more than half of teens having created a nude image, unleashing a new form of bullying amongst kids. And, Iran's World Cup team was ordered to leave the U.S. after their opening match against New Zealand. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's John J. Hardy Substack post for this podcast Today we look at a fresh stunning advance in US equities as we reapproach the all time highs for the main US indices, with a wild advance in SpaceX shares perhaps one key bit of the sentiment "tail" wagging the overall market dog as we also discuss why SpaceX shares may have risen so aggressively, even after hours yesterday. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the RBA and BoJ meetings and their impact, what we're watching for from the Fed, observations on the quality and sustainability of the US-Iran "deal" and more. Today' pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Andrew and Ben discuss the BOJ hiking rates 25bps to 1% without Governor Ueda and signaling more hikes ahead despite a 250% debt/GDP ratio, the European Parliament ratifying the US-EU trade deal 440-151 with 15% tariffs on most EU goods and preferential access for US farm produce, the Huntsman-Olin merger creating OlinHuntsman with $400 million in synergies, and growing skepticism around the Iran deal as bonds refuse to buy in and disagreements remain over Hormuz tolls, the nuclear timeline, and Israel's posture on Lebanon.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure
U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at the G7 summit in Evian, France, touting a win via the signing of a peace framework with Iran. The deal extends the ceasefire by 60 days and re-opens the Strait of Hormuz. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy is also at the summit and is due to meet leaders with EU membership discussions on the agenda. The BoJ lifts its benchmark interest rate to 1 per cent – its highest level in 30 years – seeking to normalise monetary policy and bring down inflation. Wall Street is in the green following news of the Middle East peace agreement. The Nasdaq surged 3 per cent on Monday while SpaceX shares clock a further 20 per cent in growth.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
US President Trump said the Hormuz deal is fully signed and that the Strait of Hormuz has already partially reopened, with a complete reopening expected on Friday.The US claim that Lebanon is not included in the memorandum of understanding is false, reports Fars, citing sources.Israeli artillery shelling was reported in southern Lebanon, while it was also reported that Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli soldiers in the region.APAC stocks were mixed, cooling from the relief rally seen on Monday; European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open.DXY is a touch firmer and trades around 99.70; JPY incrementally gains post-BoJ, which delivered a 25bps hike, as expected. The Aussie was little moved by the RBA's hawkish hold.Looking ahead, highlights include Italian Inflation Final (May), EU/German ZEW (Jun), US ADP Weekly, Import/Export Prices (May), Housing Starts (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Speakers including RBA's Bullock, BoJ's Uchida & ECB's Lane, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
The BoJ hiked rates to 1.00%, as expected, while the RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35% following three consecutive 25bp rate hikes. Qatar is to restore half of its LNG output a month after the Strait of Hormuz opens, with output to reach 80% of full output within two months.US equity futures are mixed, while SPCX (+10.2% pre-market) looks set to surpass AMZN's market cap.DXY softer amid pressure in energy prices; JPY and AUD flat following rate announcements.Fixed income benchmarks are broadly higher, while JGBs fell as the BoJ paused purchase tapering from FY27.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, Import/Export Prices (May), Housing Starts (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Speakers including ECB's Lane, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
John je manažér reklamnej agentúry. Vystavený každodennému stresu sa rozhodne na pár dní vypnúť. Keď ho únavná cesta nehostinným krajom zavedie ku kaviarni, poteší sa. Zablúdil a chce si tu iba na chvíľu oddýchnuť a pokračovať v ceste. Na jedálnom lístku v ponuke dňa objaví tri otázky: Prečo si tu? Bojíš sa smrti? Vedieš naplnený život? Na otázky si má odpovedať sám, kým bude čakať na jedlo. Otázky o zmysle života Johna najprv znechutia, no potom sa na ne pokúsi nájsť odpoveď... Hlavným posolstvom tejto audioknihy je návod, ako vykročiť na cestu k plnohodnotnému životu. Človek by nemal snívať o dôchodku, keď si bude môcť všetko dopriať. Život sa nemá odkladať, ale žiť. Napriek presvedčeniu, že o zmysle nášho bytia už vieme všetko, nikdy sme o ňom hlbšie nepremýšľali. Živý a svojsky zábavný príbeh sa stal medzinárodným bestsellerom a bol preložený do 41 jazykov. Kaviareň na konci sveta prináša príbeh, na ktorý tak rýchlo nezabudnete. Je to jedna z audiokníh, ktoré neodložíte, kým ich nedopočúvate. Upozorní nás na najdôležitejšie veci života a dosiahne až na dno duše. Audiokniha: Kaviareň na konci sveta Autor: John Strelecky Interpret: Milo Kráľ Dĺžka: 2:33 hod Vydavateľstvo: Publixing a Tatran Audiokniha Kaviareň na konci sveta na webe Publixing (MP3 na stiahnutie) Audiokniha Kaviareň na konci sveta na webe Audiolibrix (MP3 na stiahnutie)
Today, a look at risk sentiment in full swing after a successful SpaceX IPO on Friday and a stronger sense that the Iran war ceasefire may last long enough for shipping lanes to fully open in the Hormuz Strait, at least for a time. But while speculative energy remains high in equities, the broader macro picture is subdued, with little FX and rates volatility even as the new Kevin Warsh Fed marks the biggest shift at the Fed in a generation. This and much more, including the BoJ up tonight, on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy Links John's The FX Trader piece from today, discussing the technical situation in EURUSD and previewing the seven G-10 central bank meetings this week. A 20-minute CNBC interview with SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, where she talks a good game and even delivers the outlook for orbiting data centers with a straight face. FT discusses the many forced buyers of SpaceX as the company has been fast tracked to join many major stock indices, the members of which enjoy passive inflows. The Wall Street Journal with the basic, but important discussion of how Kevin Warsh is set to alter the Fed's communication strategy (an important first step, but as emphasized on the podcast - there are much bigger questions afoot down the line.) About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Česko navštívila lídryně běloruské opozice Svjatlana Cichanouská. Vítězka prezidentských voleb v roce 2020, které režim diktátora Alexandra Lukašenka zmanipuloval ve svůj prospěch, se setkala s prezidentem Petrem Pavlem a vládními i opozičními politiky. „Při každé její návštěvě dochází k propojování českého politického spektra v otázce Běloruska. Boj za svobodu a demokracii strany spojuje,“ věří Kryscina Šyjanok, ředitelka Kanceláře demokratických sil Běloruska.
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how building investor optimism over a US-Iran deal and Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting as Fed Chair are likely to impact the USD. Will another BoJ rate hike be sufficient to trigger a reversal of JPY weakness?
This week, we expect on-hold decisions by the Fed, BOE, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, RBA and BI, but hikes by BOJ, BSP and CBC. We expect the Fed, BOE, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, RBA and BI to all keep policy rates unchanged. By contrast, we see the BOJ, BSP, and CBC as likely to hike at a measured pace. Statements will be non-committal across the board, and all eyes on Fed Chair Warsh who will likely try to be balanced. Chapters: US:1:53, UK:9:05, Japan:14:54, Asia:14:59.
Business and finance news from the Asia-Pacific. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's hospitalization is generating uncertainty among investors over the central bank's messaging at its policy meeting next week, even as they remain convinced officials will raise interest rates. Ueda is expected to miss the BOJ's meeting on June 15-16 and will refrain from casting a vote, but will express his views via a statement. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will serve as acting chair while another deputy, Shinichi Uchida, will host a post-meeting press conference. Ueda's absence is unlikely to shift expectations of a hike, but uncertainty is growing among market participants about how clearly Uchida will communicate at the press conference. The BOJ's cautious approach to rate hikes has been weighing on the yen due to the large interest rate differential between the US and Japan. We speak to Winnie Hsu, Bloomberg's Asia Equities Reporter Plus - SpaceX has made history with the biggest-ever IPO, sending it into the top ranks of the largest public companies and putting founder Elon Musk on the verge of becoming the world's first trillionaire. The company raised $75 billion in the IPO, pricing 555.6 million shares at $135 each, according to a statement on its website Thursday. SpaceX's IPO is more than double the size of Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion listing in 2019. Bloomberg TV hosts Haidi Stroud-Watts and Shery Ahn spoke to Jay Ritter, Warrington College of Business, The IPO Initiative Director & Emeritus Professor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Česko navštívila lídryně běloruské opozice Svjatlana Cichanouská. Vítězka prezidentských voleb v roce 2020, které režim diktátora Alexandra Lukašenka zmanipuloval ve svůj prospěch, se setkala s prezidentem Petrem Pavlem a vládními i opozičními politiky. „Při každé její návštěvě dochází k propojování českého politického spektra v otázce Běloruska. Boj za svobodu a demokracii strany spojuje,“ věří Kryscina Šyjanok, ředitelka Kanceláře demokratických sil Běloruska.Všechny díly podcastu Interview Plus můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.
Když v tomto týdnu vyrazil po sedmi letech na návštěvu Pchjongjangu čínský prezident Si Ťin-pching, nešlo o výjimečné prolomení izolace tamního diktátorského režimu. O přízeň Kim Čong-una se uchází i Moskva, kterou Severní Korea podporuje v její útočné válce proti Ukrajině. Výměnou za tuto pomoc dorazily do Severní Koreji ruské peníze - a s nimi i relativní hospodářský rozkvět. Bojí se Čína rostoucího vlivu Ruska v zemi, kterou tradičně považovala za svého vazala? A co chtějí Spojené státy?Hostka: Tereza Novotná - výzkumná pracovnice institutu Europeum, která působí na Svobodné univerzitě BerlínČlánek a další informace najdete na webu Seznam Zprávy.Sledujte nás na sociálních sítích X, Instagram, Threads nebo Bluesky. Náměty a připomínky nám můžete psát na e-mail zaminutusest@sz.czHlasujte pro náš podcast v anketě Podcast roku
Když v tomto týdnu vyrazil po sedmi letech na návštěvu Pchjongjangu čínský prezident Si Ťin-pching, nešlo o výjimečné prolomení izolace tamního diktátorského režimu. O přízeň Kim Čong-una se uchází i Moskva, kterou Severní Korea podporuje v její útočné válce proti Ukrajině. Výměnou za tuto pomoc dorazily do Severní Koreji ruské peníze - a s nimi i relativní hospodářský rozkvět. Bojí se Čína rostoucího vlivu Ruska v zemi, kterou tradičně považovala za svého vazala? Hostka: Tereza Novotná - výzkumná pracovnice institutu Europeum, která působí na Svobodné univerzitě Berlín Článek a další informace najdete na webu Seznam Zprávy. Sledujte nás na sociálních sítích X, Instagram, Threads nebo Bluesky. Náměty a připomínky nám můžete psát na e-mail zaminutusest@sz.cz Hlasujte pro náš podcast v anketě Podcast roku
Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Truth Social post declaring Iran's military "completely defeated" and the deal effectively dead, today's CPI print with consensus at +4.2% headline, the BOJ rate hike path complicated by Governor Ueda's hospitalization, Super Micro's $7 billion dilutive stock offering to fund $39 billion in backlog orders, the building AI supply overhang from OpenAI's S-1, Google, SpaceX, and Perplexity's 2028 IPO plans, Claude Fable 5's release stabilizing tech, TSMC's 30% May sales rebound, and Oracle earnings tonight.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure
植田和男日銀総裁日銀は10日、植田和男総裁が9日から肝のう胞感染症の治療のため入院していると発表した。 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalized for treatment of an infectious disease and is expected to miss the central bank's next policy-setting meeting set for Monday-Tuesday, the BOJ said Wednesday.
Toto je zkrácená verze (45 min). Celý díl (76 min) a bez reklam jen za 100,-/měsíc si můžeš pustit zde a odemknou další: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5J9wjvldtRitxa6FVmqtsO?si=9fc7b15d41ef47c1Co se děje v mozku, když se rozpadne příběh o tom, kdo jsi. O neviditelné nemoci, dekreaci, posvátnu a hledání smyslu.Mluvíme o tom, co se stane, když přestaneš být režisérem vlastního filmu a začneš ubírat místo přidávat. Proč se tvůj mozek může chovat jednou jako demokrat, který si se svými přesvědčeními povídá, a podruhé jako král, který se stane tyranem. Jak meditace a psychedelika dokážou na chvíli udělat v hlavě anarchii, ze které může vyvstat něco nového. A proč pocit posvátna mění tvoje zdraví, i když v nic nevěříš.Je to díl o malém a velkém já, o tom, jak si dovolit cítit úplně všechno, a o jedné větě, která tě dokáže zasáhnout přímo do srdce. Pokud sám něčím procházíš, tohle je připomínka, že nejsi sám a že na tobě záleží.Zmíněné studie a jména: daraxonrazib a léčba metastatické rakoviny slinivky, santifikace (Krumrei a Manusko, 2025), studie „Affect, Connect and Grow“ o sebepřesahujících emocích, Dag Hammarskjöld, John Vervaeke, Sam Harris.Macromo:Krevní testy jsou objektivní data ohledně vašeho zdraví. Nechte si udělat premium krevní testy na jednom ze 120 odběrových míst a výsledky dostanete pohodlně do Macromo aplikace. Můj nejoblíbenější aspekt je sledování dlouhodobých trendů v průběhu času, tak si objednej premium testy s Macromo.com a zadej kod "BWA" pro slevu!Uplife.cz -Zadej kód "BWA" pro slevu 10% na vybrané zboží na eshopu https://www.uplife.cz/brain-we-are/Kam dále?Kup si jeden z našich online kurzů Průvodce Mozkem a Myslí, nebo Mentální Modely a s kódem "BWA30" je tam SLEVA 30%!Zadej kód "BWA" pro slevu 10% na vybrané zboží na eshopu uplife.cz a herbal-store.cz Sledujte Brain We Are na sociálních sítích: Instagram ( www.instagram.com/brain_we_are ) nebo Facebook Minutáž:00:00 Úvod a co se dělo v poslední době05:53 Boj s chronickým únavovým syndromem (ME/CFS)09:53 Průlomová klinická studie léčby rakoviny slinivky14:21 Ztráta identity a opouštění zažitých rolí17:38 Koncept dekreace: Kdy přestat tvořit a začít ubírat21:49 Flexibilita mysli a napojení se na velké já26:05 Neduální probuzení a meditace podle Sama Harrise30:15 Je modlitba sebereferenční proces?33:55 Uzly přesvědčení: Mozek jako demokrat i tyran35:56 Vliv psychedelik na prediktivní mozek a ego42:50 Santifikace aneb pozitivní dopady vnímání posvátnaPřechod do VIP části- Radost z maličkostí a nabourávání rigidních modelů- Přijetí negativních emocí a technika noting- Studie: Jak úžas, vděčnost a soucit posilují smysl života- Transjektivní stav, relevance a hledání smyslu- Síla poezie a psychologické odložení zbraní- Tři metafory z buddhismu a daoismu (Zablácená cesta, Prázdná loď, Dva šípy)- Nedrancuj řeku: Dag Hammarskjöld a závěrečná báseň
The much stronger than expected US jobs report has had the obvious impact with front-end rates and the dollar stronger. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Chris Jakubowski, FX Institutional Sales to discuss the impact of the data going forward. How does this impact EUR/USD with the ECB expected to hike on 11th June? Has ECB pricing become overdone given recent economic data and how will the BoJ respond given the increased upside risks in USD/JPY?
Uncertainty in the Middle East continues, as key central bank meetings approach. In the US, we examine the resilience of the economy and preview the upcoming CPI report. In Europe, we review recent inflation data and explain why we expect an ECB rate hike next week. In Japan, we preview the Q1 GDP report and take a close look at the BOJ. Across Asia, we share our take on key data coming out in Japan and China, touch on the Trump/Xi meeting and preview the central bank meeting in Indonesia next week. Chapters: US: 01:57, Japan: 11:56, Asia:15:50, Europe: 16:47.
Speciál s Oliverem Adámkem, autorem podcastové série Világoš, o maďarských volbách. Jaké změny se v Maďarsku staly od voleb? Bojí se Orbán a skončí v emigraci? Bude nová vláda znárodňovat majetek orbánovských oligarchů? Jaké změny ústavy připravuje nový premiér? Může být úspěšná země, ve které se po každých volbách mění ústava i systém? Jak se do maďarských voleb zapojila Tünde Bartha?Oliver nám popíše dezinformace, které vyprávěla na akci Fideszu, kde zastupovala Babiše.
US President Trump said they have been hitting Iran pretty hard and Iran negotiations are going well, while he suggested a deal could happen over the weekend. Though noted that it could go another two or three weeks, Brent Aug'26 -0.7%.Talks between Iran and the US were reportedly still ongoing, and no final decision had been made, according to Fars, citing a member of Tehran's negotiating team.An Iranian negotiating delegation media team member outlined a four-stage proposal for a deal with the US. 1) Ending the war, 2) tangible measures re. the Strait, 3) sanctions and nuclear issues, 4) the establishment of a supervisory committee.APAC stocks traded lower following a negative handover from the US; European bourses are indicative of a softer open.G10s are mostly slightly firmer against the USD; JPY gains slightly on reports that the BoJ is to mull a hike this month, with another possible this year.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF (May), Swiss CPI (May), EU Retail Sales (Apr), US Challenger Layoffs (May), Jobless Claims (May/30), Revelio PLS (May), and Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators Final (May). Supply from Spain & France. Earnings from Docusign, lululemon & Ciena.Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Daly, Bowman & Barkin.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
An informed source to Al Arabiya said the agreement on the release of frozen Iranian funds in its final stages, but the search continues for a mechanism on frozen funds. However, US President Trump informed the mediators of his refusal to release funds to Iran before signing the agreement.Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire in US-brokered talks, with the ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah's evacuation from the Litani. Despite this, there have been reports of continuing attacks in Southern Lebanon.US equities mixed as disappointing AVGO and CRWD earnings weigh on NQ and ES. Fixed income benchmarks gain by a handful of ticks ahead of Friday's NFP.DXY softened; JPY saw fleeting strength following hawkish BoJ reports, CHF firmer despite softer CPI data.Crude slips as efforts for a US-Iran deal continue.Looking ahead, highlights include Jobless Claims (May/30), Revelio PLS (May), Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators Final (May), Speakers include BoE's Bailey, Fed's Daly, Bowman & Barkin, Earnings from Docusign, lululemon & Ciena.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Snaha Ombudsmana aby Ústavný súd posúdil podmienky registrácie cirkví sa zmenila na strašenie islamskými mešitami. Paradoxom je, že podnet podala malá kresťanská cirkev. Sme ešte kresťanskou krajinou, keď namiesto Ježišovho posolstva cirkvi bránia mocenský monopol a politici strašia mešitami? Kolaborácia s mocou popiera Ježišov odkaz, tvrdí kňaz Starokatolíckej cirkvi Martin Kováč. Nastal konečne čas na odluku? Verejný ochranca práv napadol Ústavnom súde podmienky na registráciu cirkví a náboženských spoločností. Tie totiž registráciu podmieňujú podpismi 50tich tisícok plnoletých členov - občanov Slovenskej republiky. Podľa ombudsmana ide o “neprimeraný zásah do slobody náboženského vyznania a do práva slobodne prejavovať svoje náboženstvo alebo vieru spoločne s inými“. „Sloboda náboženského vyznania patrí medzi základné piliere demokratickej spoločnosti. Štát môže regulovať podmienky registrácie cirkví a náboženských spoločností, nemôže však nastaviť pravidlá tak prísne, že registrácia sa stane prakticky nedosiahnuteľnou,“ tvrdí Róbert Dobrovodský. Faktom je, že podľa posledného sčítania obyvateľov spĺňa tieto podmienky len 5 denominácií: Rímskokatolícka cirkev, Evanjelická cirkev augsburského vyznania, Gréckokatolícka cirkev, Reformovaná kresťanská cirkev a veľmi tesne aj Pravoslávna cirkev..Boj za slobodu náboženského vyznania sa však zmenil na strašenie mešitami. Koaliční politici však v kroku ombudsmana vidia nebezpečné otváranie dverí islamu. Tento krok pána ombudsmana som skutočne nepochopil a ide sám proti Slovenskej republike,“ vyhlásil minister obrany Róbert Kaliňák. Paradoxom je, že ombudsman svojim podaním reagoval na podnet občianskeho združenia Starokatolíci na Slovensku z januára 2023. Starokatolícka cirkev na Slovensku sa tak ocitla v epicentre sporu o to, kde končia práva veriacich a kde sa začína reštriktívna moc štátu. Hoci ich spoločenstvo v krajine reálne pôsobí, zákonná podmienka 50-tisíc členov z nich robí pre štát „neviditeľných“, bez možnosti uzavrieť sobáš či vyučovať na školách. Kým politici strašia islamským radikalizmom, Starokatolíci sa domáhajú len základnej právnej subjektivity, ktorú majú ich kolegovia v okolitých štátoch už pri stovkách členov.Je slovenský náboženský model skutočne postavený na tradícii, alebo na diskriminácii všetkého, čo nespĺňa masové kvóty? A prečo sa tak bojíme fiktívnych mešít v krajine, kde moslimovia takmer nežijú a už dnes na Slovensku Islam svoje modlitebne má? No a napokon, nenastal už konečne čas na splnenie poslednej požiadavky Verejnosti proti násiliu z Novembra 89 o odluke cirkvi od štátu? Aj s kňazským kolárikom sme tu vydaní na milosť a nemilosť, stačí prekročiť hranice a je to úplne iné. Baháisti či Mormoni to majú, my nie. Je to naozaj nedôstojné. Žiaľ veľké kresťanské cirkvi sa nás vôbec nezastali, hovorí Martin Kováč. Podľa neho hádky o moc a peniaze vo veľkých kresťanských cikvách zatieňujú Ježišovo posolstvo a nastal najvyšší čas na odluku cirkví od štátu. Kresťanstvo je o absolútnej otvorenosti a za touto nenávisťou (aktuálne voči Mešitám) je najmä strach, dodáva Kováč. Ráno Nahlas s kňazom Starokatolíckej cirkvi Martinom Kováčom. Pekný deň a pokoj v duši praje Braňo Dobšinský.
Snaha Ombudsmana aby Ústavný súd posúdil podmienky registrácie cirkví sa zmenila na strašenie islamskými mešitami. Paradoxom je, že podnet podala malá kresťanská cirkev. Sme ešte kresťanskou krajinou, keď namiesto Ježišovho posolstva cirkvi bránia mocenský monopol a politici strašia mešitami? Kolaborácia s mocou popiera Ježišov odkaz, tvrdí kňaz Starokatolíckej cirkvi Martin Kováč. Nastal konečne čas na odluku? Verejný ochranca práv napadol Ústavnom súde podmienky na registráciu cirkví a náboženských spoločností. Tie totiž registráciu podmieňujú podpismi 50tich tisícok plnoletých členov - občanov Slovenskej republiky. Podľa ombudsmana ide o “neprimeraný zásah do slobody náboženského vyznania a do práva slobodne prejavovať svoje náboženstvo alebo vieru spoločne s inými“. „Sloboda náboženského vyznania patrí medzi základné piliere demokratickej spoločnosti. Štát môže regulovať podmienky registrácie cirkví a náboženských spoločností, nemôže však nastaviť pravidlá tak prísne, že registrácia sa stane prakticky nedosiahnuteľnou,“ tvrdí Róbert Dobrovodský. Faktom je, že podľa posledného sčítania obyvateľov spĺňa tieto podmienky len 5 denominácií: Rímskokatolícka cirkev, Evanjelická cirkev augsburského vyznania, Gréckokatolícka cirkev, Reformovaná kresťanská cirkev a veľmi tesne aj Pravoslávna cirkev..Boj za slobodu náboženského vyznania sa však zmenil na strašenie mešitami. Koaliční politici však v kroku ombudsmana vidia nebezpečné otváranie dverí islamu. Tento krok pána ombudsmana som skutočne nepochopil a ide sám proti Slovenskej republike,“ vyhlásil minister obrany Róbert Kaliňák. Paradoxom je, že ombudsman svojim podaním reagoval na podnet občianskeho združenia Starokatolíci na Slovensku z januára 2023. Starokatolícka cirkev na Slovensku sa tak ocitla v epicentre sporu o to, kde končia práva veriacich a kde sa začína reštriktívna moc štátu. Hoci ich spoločenstvo v krajine reálne pôsobí, zákonná podmienka 50-tisíc členov z nich robí pre štát „neviditeľných“, bez možnosti uzavrieť sobáš či vyučovať na školách. Kým politici strašia islamským radikalizmom, Starokatolíci sa domáhajú len základnej právnej subjektivity, ktorú majú ich kolegovia v okolitých štátoch už pri stovkách členov.Je slovenský náboženský model skutočne postavený na tradícii, alebo na diskriminácii všetkého, čo nespĺňa masové kvóty? A prečo sa tak bojíme fiktívnych mešít v krajine, kde moslimovia takmer nežijú a už dnes na Slovensku Islam svoje modlitebne má? No a napokon, nenastal už konečne čas na splnenie poslednej požiadavky Verejnosti proti násiliu z Novembra 89 o odluke cirkvi od štátu? Aj s kňazským kolárikom sme tu vydaní na milosť a nemilosť, stačí prekročiť hranice a je to úplne iné. Baháisti či Mormoni to majú, my nie. Je to naozaj nedôstojné. Žiaľ, veľké kresťanské cirkvi sa nás vôbec nezastali, hovorí Martin Kováč. Podľa neho hádky o moc a peniaze vo veľkých kresťanských cirkvách zatieňujú Ježišovo posolstvo a nastal najvyšší čas na odluku cirkví od štátu. Kresťanstvo je o absolútnej otvorenosti a za touto nenávisťou (aktuálne voči Mešitám) je najmä strach, dodáva Kováč. Ráno Nahlas s kňazom Starokatolíckej cirkvi Martinom Kováčom. Pekný deň a pokoj v duši praje Braňo Dobšinský.
“Japan panics. The rest of the world just hasn't realized it yet.” - Michael Gayed. The BOJ is losing the war to save the yen—and the reverse carry trade is about to trigger a global margin call.
The conclusion of our two-part episode from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit looks at structural shifts in Japan's economy and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's strategic growth agenda.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. This is Part 2 of our podcast from the Japan Summit.It's Friday, May 22nd at 8 am in Tokyo.I might stick with equities for just a minute, and Sho, just to dig deeper into the equity market. Jonathan expressed some of the bullishness. Anything you want to elaborate on where the real strong conviction on this positive view about Japanese equities is coming from?And then just as a warning, I'm going to come back to you and ask, if you're wrong, where could you be wrong? Because again, I think where we add value most to clients is not just giving a clear view, but also pressure testing that view.Sho Nakazawa: Our constructive view on Japan equities comes down to one simple point. Three structural changes are still continuing. So, the first is shifting macro environment. The combination of stable inflation and wage growth is a kind of phenomenon we have not seen, at least in my lifetime. It changes corporates and households' behavior, especially in terms of balance sheet management.And then secondly, the corporates profit improvements. We do not see it as a cyclical recovery. We see it as a structural change. As in the past, Japan corporates heavily relied on cost-cutting amid a deflationary environment. But today, price pass-through is improving, and the Japan corporates are becoming better positioned in growth profit in nominal growth environment.The third is corporate governance reform. Awareness of the capital efficiency has clearly increased. We continue to see share buybacks, dividends increase, and a portfolio restructuring as well. And on top of that, the Takaichi administration has made growth investment and crisis management investment as well.Of course, the Middle East situation is a source of noise. But structurally is a supporting factor for Japan equities secular bear market, which is a view Jonathan has held for very long time, has actually becoming stronger.But let me say that if I'm wrong, maybe I should be more bullish. In fact, the two key drivers here, if we assess the bear case scenario on Japan equities…So, one key driver should be the upside come from the investors constructive view on the Japan fiscal efficiency. And on a micro level, the corporate behavior changing faster than market expects. If we assess the recent rise in long-term yields, it reflect the concern to the Japan fiscal position and that BoJ behind the curve.It would weigh on the Japan equity valuation because it raises cost of capital and it weighs on the Japan equity valuation. But on the other hand, [the] Japanese government will disclose its basic policy in June. And if it could include a credible plan to improve Japan's fiscal positions, perhaps under Japan version of DOGE, which is led by Financial Minister Katayama-san, I think it could alleviate the excessive concern toward the Japan's fiscal position, and it [could] lower the cost of capital on Japan equities.You know, micro level, the corporates behavior is already changing, as I mentioned. But there's still plenty, you know, space for Japan corporates to utilize non-cash generating assets such as cash and deposit, which is equivalent to 60 percent of GDP. The ratio is far higher than our global peers.So, if Japan corporates move further to capital efficiency or portfolio restructuring or use some excess capital, I think there should be additional room for Japan equity market to re-rate higher.Seth Carpenter: All right. So, if you're wrong, it's insufficient bullishness. That's a great place to be.So, so Koichi, Jonathan and Sho are bullish on equities. And so, do you expect big shift in capital flows, and would that drive further appreciation of the currency? How do you think about the global investors' view of Japan? And what it means for capital flows on the one hand, and the value of the currency on the other?Koichi Sugisaki: As for the capital flows, I think under this fresh regime, what's the notable change among the Japanese financials? That they are shifting away from the fixed income product, I mean, like JGBs.Given the current attractive yields, you maybe wonder[ing] why the banking sectors buy the JGBs. But according to the recent disclosures, they have not purchased the JGBs much because their lending activity performed very well. So, as far as their lending activity have performed well, they have no incentive to make money in the securities investment.You know, their lending activity have accelerated thanks to the corporate CapEx investment to improve the productivity amidst the labor shortages in Japan. Once the banking sector starts to see some slowdown or some symptom of the lending activity to slow down, in such a case, they are quickly shifted to the securities investment and the JGB market will change the world.But so far, you know, lending growth [has] accelerated much. You know, the April lending growth is around 6 percent on the year-on-year basis, very strong. So, I think the banking sector still not have a[n] incentive to buy the JGBs.As for the lifers, [the] case is much more serious, I think. Because of the younger ages shifting towards the equities to defend the asset, particularly under the new NISA scheme [which] was launched in 2024. The younger peoples basically allocate their asset to the equities rather than the saving type of the products.Which means that the lifers are struggling to make, to gather the new monies. And this means that the demand for the long-term JGB to shrink. And the Japan lifers already filled the duration this much by 2023 to prepare for the new regulations starting from this fiscal year. Now, fortunately, they already finished the duration this much, this type of operation by 2023. But the yield [has] gone up from 2024, thanks to the BoJ's normalization.So, under such conditions, they are now struggling to the high market loss on the long-term JGBs. And some of lifers are now facing the impairment loss accounting. That actually [makes] lifers a net seller of the long-term JGBs rather than the buyers.Seth Carpenter: Okay, super helpful. Okay, we focused a lot on near-term developments, the energy shock, first quarter GDP. But we can think about a longer-term growth scenario. And there, I think AI comes in at times. Chetan, you've talked about the near-term super cycle, and I think there's a near-term aggregate demand side to AI, but over the longer term, maybe it's more supply.When I think about where growth is going, though, I also think about shifts in the strategy for policy. So maybe Yamaguchi-san, you can talk to me a bit on your take of Prime Minister Takaichi's policies. What do we think is likely to get announced? When? How do you see it affecting the long-term growth outlook for Japan?Takeshi Yamaguchi: [The] Japanese government publishes growth strategy report and the basic policy on fiscal management or honebuto policy in June every year. But I think this year's, you know, documents will be pretty important because these are the first documents under the Takaichi administration.And these documents will set the direction of economic policy by Takaichi-san, Sanae Takaichi. Or Sanae-nomics. Compared with Abenomics, I think Takaichi-san focuses more on the supply side issues, you know, supply domestic investment. While Abenomics focused more on the exit from deflation, focusing on demand side policy, particularly, you know, monetary easing.In the growth strategy report, the focus will be strategic investment in 17 strategic areas, including AI, especially, you know, AI robotics, semiconductors, defense and space, cybersecurity, and content industry and so on.Another important point of Sanaeconomic system, there's overlap between these strategic investment areas and national securities. The government will also update its defense strategy by the end of this year, and there'll be a increase in the defense budget target. The focus will be a lot on, you know, I think, dual use technologies, and also resilience of supply chains going ahead.Another important point is, I think there will be a change in the budget formation process. I think, under deflation there's effectively cap on non-social security spending. But I think this government will likely allocate budget, you know, for multi-investment. So, I think the budget process will be more flexible. And they put more emphasis on the initial budget rather than the supplementary budget.So, I think, these documents will be pretty important to monitor going ahead. But overall, I think, the government – yes, they do care about the market conditions. They will likely avoid massive, you know, expansion. But I think a slight expansion, especially in the area of strategic investment is likely to happen.Seth Carpenter: Very helpful. Alright, that's the end of the panel. Thank you very much to my colleagues. And this is where I have to shift back into podcast mode to say thank you for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a colleague or friend today. Thank you very much, everybody.
Boj o větrníky. Co jsou to akcelerační zóny? Proč s nimi tolik lidí nesouhlasí? Hrozí Česku, že bez nich přijde o unijní peníze? A jakou roli v tom hraje vládní zmocněnec Filip Turek? Ptám se Viktora Votruby z Hospodářských novin, který se věnuje obnovitelným zdrojům a životnímu prostředí. Ptá se Matěj Skalický.Všechny díly podcastu Vinohradská 12 můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.
Boj o větrníky. Co jsou to akcelerační zóny? Proč s nimi tolik lidí nesouhlasí? Hrozí Česku, že bez nich přijde o unijní peníze? A jakou roli v tom hraje vládní zmocněnec Filip Turek? Ptám se Viktora Votruby z Hospodářských novin, který se věnuje obnovitelným zdrojům a životnímu prostředí. Ptá se Matěj Skalický.
In deze aflevering van Side Quest bespreken we de game van het moment: Subnautica 2. Sjaak is er letterlijk in gedoken en zeer positief over de game, al is het nog duidelijk een early access-titel. Verder is Sjaak ook gedoken in een andere game met mogelijk een nog beladenere achtergrond: Zero Parades for Dead Spies. Daarnaast schuift onze gloednieuwe reviewer Boj aan om te vertellen over Titanium Court, een indietitel die zeker de moeite waard is. Tom blijft Marathon spelen en Kees van der Spek kijken, maar een discussie over Euphoria seizoen 3 komt ook voorbij. Boj is naar de bioscoop geweest om The Sheep Detectives te zien en was daar best positief over.Hoofdstukken:(00:00:00) Intro(00:00:30) Sjaak en Riftbound(00:04:10) Wie is Boj?(00:07:10) Hoe is het met Tom en zijn Mieren?(00:09:10) Titanium Court, wat is dit?(00:15:05) Het uitgaansleven van Boj en zijn podcast(00:18:15) Subnautica 2 is cool(00:35:00) Zero Parades for Dead Spies is eigenlijk wel goed(00:51:00) Battlefield 6 en Overwatch (heel kort)(00:51:40) Fortnite of is dit Overwatch?(00:54:00) Marathon, trouwens welke games hebben wij het meest gespeeld?(01:04:00) Grand Theft Auto 6 pre-orders, waar zijn ze?(01:12:20) Waar kijken we dit jaar nog naar uit? GTA 6 is banned voor deze stelling(01:21:50) The Boys, is dit een seizoensfinale?(01:27:42) Euphoria seizoen 3 is best okay(01:34:01) Kees van der Spek blijft cool(01:36:50) The Sheep Detectives, eigenlijk wel leuk(01:38:20) Outro
Can we influence the strong nuclear force? Neil deGrasse Tyson and Paul Mecurio answer grab bag questions about sci-fi laser guns, the Roche Limit, how we interact with the fundamental forces, and more! NOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can listen to this entire episode commercial-free here: https://startalkmedia.com/show/cosmic-queries-scars-in-spacetime/ Thanks to our Patrons Gladys Strickland, Jonathan Marino, Petri Rajama, Benjamin Cross, Smooth, Cecelia Linley, John Burgin, Elizabeth Shope, Barrett Mayes, Paweł Szczypa, Ivan Ocampo, Angelo Rios, Luisangel Araujo, B-RO RTR, Sebastian Poehlmann, Kendra, Charles, LateGame, Stephanie, Denis, Joseph Hodge, Daniel Smith, Matt Sutton, Ziyod Yusupov, TheAceIsHere _, Robert Baughman, Patricia Weaver, Scott Jones, Luis Figueroa, TheJosh, Justin Garrity, J. Michael Mastro, Andreas Sorteberg Vik, Christian Di Patria, Steve Kingan, Martha, Nick, Jeff Ferren, Louise Keyte, Ann Hosler, Darren, Roni Gi, Salacious B Crumb, Tero Tommola, Dhaval, Andy Roberts, Brian Simmons, Toney, Remedy, Terry Melman, David Smith, Andrew M Gross, Conan, Raz, Joseph Watkins, Joe, Dom WB, Mike Bertuccio, Deepak Mani, Adam Dockerty, Mike, Habib Hassan, Exercise Enlightenment, Everett, Twisted Universe, Jason Prechtl, Luis Antonio Leon, SwillisBolt, Switchblade91, Linda Hall, Bo J, Megan Marler, Dalton, Jim, Chris Brown, Krisztian Unpronounceable, Donce, Jay, Jacob, Suzan Wallace, Ted, Steve James, TERP Radio, Sublimis, Alexander Casian, Onlymeami, Zack Blankenship, John Perez, Specter, DJ, Kristian Jeremiassen, Adam Flores, Dan Herman, Zef Correal, Maddie, Adam, Mark, Mary, Andrew494, and Matthew Grieve for supporting us this week. Subscribe to SiriusXM Podcasts+ to listen to new episodes of StarTalk Radio ad-free and a whole week early.Start a free trial now on Apple Podcasts or by visiting siriusxm.com/podcastsplus. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Scott Bessent ha visitado Japón esta semana para gestionar un problema que amenaza directamente al mercado de deuda americana: cada vez que Tokio interviene para defender el yen, vende bonos del Tesoro estadounidense y empuja al alza sus tipos de interés. Pero el problema es estructural, no coyuntural. Con una deuda pública en torno al 250% del PIB y déficit crónico, Japón ya no puede subvencionar barata la deuda americana como ha venido haciendo durante tres décadas vía represión monetaria. En este vídeo analizamos las tres salidas posibles —intervención, subida del BOJ, dejar caer el yen— y por qué todas conducen al alza de los tipos americanos. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
S&P futures are down (0.2%) as of now, pointing to a slightly lower open. Asian equities traded mostly lower on Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei closed (1%) lower following the BoJ rate decision. Greater China markets were also lower, while South Korea and Taiwan benchmarks extended record gains, supported by semiconductors and AI demand. European markets are firmer in early trading.Companies Mentioned: Meta Platforms, Dynatrace
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss how the FX majors have been performing ahead of the upcoming BoJ, Fed, BoE & ECB policy meetings. Wil the European central banks stick to more hawkish guidance than the BoJ and Fed?