Podcasts about Boj

What are the near-term macro implications for China from the temporary tariff roll-back in Geneva? Can the truce become permanent? What are the spillover effects to the rest of the region? Are the Japan and Korea trade deals imminent? Are currency accords part of these deals? Will the BoJ continue normalizing sooner than October? Sajjid Chinoy, Haibin Zhu, Ayako Fujita and Seokgil Park discuss these questions and more.   This podcast was recorded on May 14, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4978369-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4982620-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4966658-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Dan po zakonodajnem referendumu o zakonu o dodatku k pokojninam za umetniške dosežke se bomo lotili zlasti posledic včerajšnje odločitve. Kaj pomeni več kot 90-odstotna zavrnitev zakona za pobudnike referenduma, kaj pa za vladno koalicijo? Boj za razlago številk se je že razplamtel, mi pa se bomo dogajanja in pogleda v prihodnje mesece lotili v tokratnem Studiu ob 17.00. Gosta: dr. Miro Haček, Fakulteta za družbene vede Univerze v Ljubljani; dr. Dejan Verčič, Fakulteta za družbene vede Univerze v Ljubljani.

„Bojím se, že mladá generace se neztotožní s církví, za kterou stojí stovky miliard jmění, s církví, která nepotřebuje své věřící, protože její finanční toky budou na věřících nezávislé,“ říká bývalý církevní soudce Jan Rozek v rozhovoru pro pořad Kupředu do minulosti. 2. díl, 11.05.2025, www.RadioUniversum.cz

Boj o rozhlas, osvobozování Plzně nebo Liberce, ale také plíživý nástup další totality – novinářka Lucie Korcová, dokumenatrista Adam Drda a ředitel Post Bellum Mikuláš Kroupa se zamýšlejí nad tím, co všechno přinesl konec války na českém území. A přidávají i vzpomínky svých příbuzných, kteří zažili pád nacismu na různých místech Československé republiky. Pestrobarevnou mozaiku, kterou přinesly poslední válečné dny, skládají autoři v novém dílu Hlasů paměti.

Japan was, they said, on the cusp of generational shift. The real outlier in a growing tide of reversals, BoJ was still hiking still anticipating an inflationary recovery. It has all come crashing down, globally synchronized. But not before one final plot twist. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After a stronger than expected US jobs report and increased speculation of an easing in trade tensions, Derek Halpenny. Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate FX Sales to discuss financial market conditions and the renewed depreciation of the US dollar. Derek also looks to next week and discusses the FOMC and BoE meetings and the fallout for the yen following the BoJ meeting this week.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the gold price is tumbling today, ending its recent spectacular rise.But first, American initial jobless claims rose to 223,600 last week, more than expected. There are now 1.907 mln people on these benefits, +153,000 more than at this time last year, a rose of +8.7%.But job cuts announced in April came in less than you might have thought at 105,400, certainly less than for March. But they are +62% higher than year-ago levels.The widely-watched ISM manufacturing PMI for April slipped into a deeper contraction than in March, although slightly less so than expected. Output shrank more sharply and prices rose faster. Meanwhile, new orders declined at a slower pace although new export orders fell steeply. This survey was quite a bit more negative than the S&P Global/Markit version we noted yesterday.One sector that has lost much of its momentum is the US construction industry. It atrophied somewhat in March, again.The expectation is that tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls report will deliver a rise of +130,000, about half the levels they had at the back end of 2024. But there may be downside risks to this estimate. A very weak result will put the Fed in a real bind, having to choose between rescuing jobs in a faltering economy, or pushing back on rising inflation. The last time they had serious stagflation was in the late 1970s, and then the Fed chose fighting inflation over preserving jobs and growth. It caused social unrest, but it beat inflation, and ended stagflation's curse - until now. But fifty years later, few people understand that curse and it's corrosive effects.Across the Pacific, the Bank of Japan held its key interest rate steady yesterday as the new American tariff policy casts a shadow over the Japanese economy. The central bank kept its policy rate at 0.5% during its first board meeting since Washington announced a wave of "reciprocal" tariffs in early April. The yen fell. The BOJ also stood pat at its March meeting following a +25 bps hike in January.And don't forget, China is on holiday, until Tuesday. So data releases there are sparse. It may be a good time for some of them to take a break; outbound export shipments to the US are reportedly down -50%. Despite that, there are signs the US is desperate to get trade talks going but Beijing is playing hard to engage.Australia reported a merchandise trade surplus of +AU$10.8 bln in March. This was a good improvement from the relatively low +AU$8.4 bln in March 2024, but similar to the average March in the prior five years (+AU$10.6 bln). (Australia usually reports seasonally adjusted values, and are much lower than the actual values this year, for some reason.)The Aussie federal election is in its final day now. Pundits seem to think the incumbent government will be returned but with a reduced majority, maybe even requiring a coalition partner. We will know soon enough.Global container freight rates fell -3% last week from the prior week to be -23% lower than year ago levels. Bulk freight rates were little-changed.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3214/oz, and down -US$95 from yesterday.Oil prices are holding lower at just on US$58.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$61.50/bbl. These remain four year lows, down to level last seen in April 2021.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59 USc, down -40 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 52.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.4 and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today up +2.8% from yesterday at US$96,810. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.9%.This briefing is taking a few days off for a short break. We will resume on Tuesday, May 5, 2025.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Tuesday.

APAC stocks traded higher but with gains capped in severely thinned conditions owing to mass holiday closures across the region and in Europe for Labour Day.BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.50% and provided some dovish rhetoric despite maintaining its rate hike signal.US is said to have reached out to China recently for tariff talks, according to Bloomberg citing an influential social media account.US stocks were boosted heading into the Wall St closing bell. Futures saw a further lift following strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta.DXY is higher, JPY lags post-BoJ with USD/JPY eyeing 144 to the upside, EUR/USD sits around the 1.13 mark.Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims & ISM Manufacturing, BoJ Governor Ueda's Press Conference.Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Riot Platforms, Reddit, Airbnb, Eli Lilly, Roblox, CVS, MasterCard, McDonald's, Drax, Hiscox, Lloyds, Kerry, Whitbread, Standard Chartered & Telecom Italia.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The ASX 200 kicked off May with a 19-point gain to 8146. Some Asian markets closed today as are some European markets. US futures showing a very positive session, given the results from Meta and Microsoft. Banks held firm with CBA up 0.4% and the Big Bank Basket flat at $265.81 (0.2%). Other financials did ok too, PTM rose 11.4% as Kerr Neilsen sold out to LSF. Merger talks are on. HUB rose 2.3% and PNI up 0.9%. MQG continue to miss out closing down 0.3%. REITs were positive, with a focus on data centres, given the Azure results from Microsoft. GMG up 3.4% and DGT up 6.3%. Industrials also in favour, WTC rallied 6.6% and XRO up 3.2% as tech found big buyers. REA up 0.4% and retail stocks continuing to find buyers. JBH up 0.8% and BAP up 2.4% with travel stocks better too. WOW and COL better too as results cheer.  Resources were in a world of pain. LYC fell 3.4% on possible moves from China, iron ore stocks dropped, BHP down 0.9% and PLS under pressure. Gold miners were mixed, NST fell another 0.8% with EVN off 1.3% as copper rallied after a sobering day yesterday. OBM bounced 3.0% and SPR rose 2.0%. Uranium stocks back in demand after a day's rest. DYL up % with BOE up % and PDN up %. Oil and gas stocks fell, WDS down 2.6%. In corporate news, PTM was a focus with JDO chopped down to size on an update. DXB rose 41.9% on a good licensing deal. In economic news, the BoJ kept rates unchanged. Asian markets were disrupted by holidays in China. Japan up 1.1%. 10-year yields at 4.19%.Want to invest with Marcus Today? The Managed Strategy Portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you.If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

 This week, we dive into the latest EY Digital Assets Survey and what it reveals about institutional sentiment: 85% of respondents increased their crypto allocations in 2024—and nearly the same expect to do so again in 2025. We unpack which assets are in focus, the critical role of regulation, and how institutions are beginning to engage with DeFi.On the market side, ETF inflows remain strong, especially into IBIT, with ETH reversing its outflows from the previous week. We analyze current holder trends and potential upside scenarios. We also look at Bitcoin's increasing correlation with gold and how it's behaving around key geopolitical headlines.In macro, we touch on updates from the White House and key economic prints—JOLTs, ADP, GDP, and the BoJ rate decision—all leading up to Friday's NFPs.In the news section, we discuss BTC treasury trends at 21 Capital and explore Solana-based DeFi treasury entities like Upexi and DeFi Development Corp.Onchain, we review the implications of EIP-9698, early signs of renewed strength in ETH signals, and the Loopscale exploit. We also note Monero-BTC swap developments and DeFi TVL climbing back above $100B.We close with key upcoming catalysts to watch: Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls, the May 7th FOMC decision, and Ethereum's long-awaited Pectra upgrade.Topics Covered:Institutional Trends: EY Survey highlights, asset preferences, regulatory priorities, and DeFi participationMarket Update: IBIT-led ETF inflows, ETH reversal, BTC holders & gold correlationMacro Overview: White House, JOLTs, ADP, GDP, BoJ, and NFPs outlookNews & Earnings: BTC treasury strategy at 21 Capital, Solana-based DeFi treasuriesOnchain Insights: EIP-9698, ETH revival signals, Loopscale exploit, and TVL growthCatalysts Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls (May 3), FOMC & Ethereum Pectra Upgrade (May 7)Host: Ben Floyd, Head of Execution ServicesSpeakers: David Duong, Head of Institutional Research Brock Miller, Senior Staff Software EngineerJoshua Pak, Senior CES Sales TraderCoinbase NewsCBAM BTC Yield Fund: A conservative Bitcoin strategy targeting 4–8% net annual returns over a market cycle, with subscriptions and redemptions in BTC.UK Web3 Accelerator Launch: Coinbase joins Fabric Ventures, Animoca Brands, and Founders Factory to launch a new UK-focused Web3 accelerator.Coinbase x PayPal Partnership: Coinbase expands its PayPal partnership to support seamless 1:1 PYUSD-USD conversions and explore new onchain use cases.Coinbase International Exchange Q1 Recap: Highlights from Q1 performance and key growth initiatives planned for Q2 2025.LinksEY-Parthenon Digital Assets Strategy Report

In this episode, I chat with Peruvian Bull, a well-known Bitcoin researcher and educator. We also unpack the central bank manipulation, the coming currency wars, and why Bitcoin might be the only way out. If you're looking to understand what the next phase of the dollar endgame might look like, this episode is for you.  ––– Offers & Discounts –––

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the volatile price action for USD/JPY over the past week. Will the BoJ's upcoming policy meeting derail the current downward trend for USD/JPY? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Send us a textDollar rebounds as China considers tariff exemptions. But recession concerns remain, evident by Fed rate cut bets. Tokyo CPI inflation accelerates, boosting BoJ hike bets. Wall Street rallies on easing trade tensions, tech boost.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

2️⃣ Boj o post světové dvojky na svou stranu překlopil ve finálových zápasech Alexander Zverev

Zhruba každé čtvrté dítě v Česku jde do první třídy až v sedmi letech. Změnit to má novela školského zákona, která je ve Sněmovně před třetím čtením. „Bojíme se, že pro děti, které odklad opravdu potřebují, bude proces jeho získání příliš komplikovaný,“ upozorňuje pro Český rozhlas Plus Tomáš Augustýn, člen Asociace ředitelů základních škol. „Ředitelé se najednou vzbudí během jednání Sněmovny a mají obavy,“ vadí poslanci Pavlu Klímovi (TOP 09), který novelu předložil.Všechny díly podcastu Pro a proti můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

This week's Global Markets podcast takes place against a backdrop of financial market turmoil with signs of a building crisis of confidence in US assets. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Chris Jakubowski Head of FI FX Sales about what needs to happen to halt the slide in confidence. There are certain actions that would help but none seems that likely. Derek and Chris also discuss the prospects for JPY and the BoJ's stance in the midst of increased financial market turmoil. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs alongside the 104% levy on China came into effect; US President Trump said China is manipulating its currency in offset against tariffs, and added the US will be announcing tariffs on pharmaceuticals soon.Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) was somewhat cushioned following recent stabilisation measures and expected policy support; E-mini S&P futures fell (-2.2%); markets await China's response.10yr UST futures notably slumped amid a surge in yields due to trade war concerns and after a weak 3yr auction stateside.RBI and RBNZ both cut their respective rates by 25bps as expected - both central banks flagged trade uncertainty; Japan's BoJ, MOF, FSA hold meeting to discuss international financial markets at 08:00BST.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 futures down 4.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.5% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Wholesale Sales, FOMC Minutes, Trump Executive Orders, Speakers including BoJ's Ueda, ECB's Knot, Cipollone & Fed's Barkin, Supply from UK & US, Earnings from Delta & Constellation Brands.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Boj člověka proti komárům a nemocem, které přenášejí, byl až dosud spíš neúspěšný. „Měkké“ metody boje – spaní v moskytiérách, do kterých neproniknou, obalování našich těl bahnem, které neprorazí sosákem, všemožné repelenty, jejichž pach komárům vadí, případně ta ze všech nejměkčí metoda, totiž neustálé plašení komárů, aby na nás neusedli, kterou mají v oblibě buddhisté nepřipraveni zabít jakéhokoli živého tvora – to všechno může pomoci, abychom my sami zůstali nesežraní...

As market turmoil continues, our global economists give their view on the ramifications of the Trump administration's tariffs, and how central banks across key regions might react.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's, Global Chief Economist, and today we're going to be talking tariffs and what they mean for the global economy.It's Monday, April 7th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: It's 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And it's 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: And so, I'm here with our global economists from around the world: Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. So, let's jump into it. Let me go around first and ask each of you, what is the top question that you are getting from investors around the world?Chetan?Chetan Ahya: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: Jens?Jens Eisenschmidt: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: Mike?Michael Gapen: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: All right. Well, that seems clear. Before we get into the likely effects of the tariffs, maybe each of you could just sketch for me where you were before tariffs were announced. Chetan, let me start with you. What was your outlook for the Chinese economy before the latest round of tariff announcements?Chetan Ahya: Well Seth, working with our U.S. public policy team, we were already assuming a 15-percentage point increase on tariffs on imports from China. And China also was going through some domestic challenges in terms of high levels of debt, excess capacities, and deflation. And so, combining both the factors, we were assuming China's growth will slow on Q4 by Q4 basis last year – from 5.4 percent to close to 4 percent this year.Jens, what about Europe? Before these broad-based tariffs, how were you thinking about the European economy?Jens Eisenschmidt: We had penciled in a slight recovery, not really getting us much beyond 1 percent. Backdrop here, still rising real wages. We had some tariffs in here, on steel, aluminum; in cars, much again a bit more of a beefed-up version if you want, of the 18 tariffs – but not much more than that. And then, of course, we had the German fiscal expansion that helped our outlook to sustain this positive growth rates into 2026.Seth Carpenter: Mike, for you. You also had thought that there were going to be some tariffs at some point before this last round of tariffs. Maybe you can tell us what you had in mind before last week's announcements.Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth. We had a lot of tariffs on China. The effective rate rising to say 35 to 40 percent. But as Jens just mentioned, outside of that, we had some on steel and aluminum, and autos with Europe, but not much beyond that. So, an effective tariff rate for the U.S. that reached maybe 8 to 9 percent.We thought that would gradually weigh on the economy. We had growth at around 1.5 percent this year and 1 percent next year. And the disinflation process stopping – meaning inflation finishes the year at around 2.8 core PCE, roughly where it is now. So, a gradual slowdown from tariff implementation.Seth Carpenter: Alright, so a little bit built in. You knew there was going to be something, but boy, I guess I have to say, judging from market reactions, the world was surprised at the magnitude of things. So, what's changed in your mind? It seems like tariffs have got to push down the outlook for growth and up the out outlook for inflation. Is that about right? And can you sketch for us how this new news is going to affect the outlook?Michael Gapen: Sure. So instead of effective tariff rates of 8 to 9 percent, we're looking at effective tariff rates, maybe as high as 22 percent.Seth Carpenter: Oh, that's a lot.Michael Gapen: Yeah. So more than twice what we were expecting. Obviously, some of that may get negotiated down. Seth Carpenter: And would you say that's the highest tariff rate we've seen in a while?Michael Gapen: At least a century. If we were to a 1.5 percent on growth before, it's pretty easy to revise that down, maybe even a full percentage point, right?So you're, it's a tax on consumption and a tariff rate that high is going to pull down consumer spending. It's also going to lead to even much higher inflation than we were expecting. So rather than 2.8 for core PCE year-on-year, I wouldn't be surprised if we get something even in the high threes or perhaps even low fours.So, it pushes the economy, we would say, at least closer to a recession. If not, you're getting closer to the proverbial coin toss because there are the potential for a lot of indirect effects on business confidence. Do they spend less and hire less? And obviously we're seeing asset markets melt down. I think it's fair to describe it that way. And you could have negative wealth effects on the upper income consumers. So, the direct effects get you very modest growth a little bit above zero. It's the indirect effects that we're worried about.Seth Carpenter: Wow, that's quite a statement. So, a substantial slowdown for the U.S. Flirting with no growth. And then given all the uncertainty, the possibility that the U.S. actually goes into recession, a real possibility there. That feels like a big call.Jens, if the U.S. could be on the verge of recession with uncertainty and all of that, what are you thinking about Europe now? You had talked about Europe before the tariffs growing around 1 percent. That's not that far away from zero. So, what are you thinking about the outlook for Europe once we layer in these additional tariffs? And I guess every bit is important. Do you see retaliatory tariffs coming from the European Union?Jens Eisenschmidt: No, I think there are at least three parts here. I totally agree with that framing. So, first of all, we have the tariffs and then we have some estimates what they might mean, which, just suppose what we have heard last week sticks, would get us already in some countries into recessionary territory; and for the aggregate Euro area, not that far from it. So, we think effects could range between 60 and 120 basis points of less growth. Now that to some extent, incorporates retaliation. And so, the question is how much retaliation we might expect here. This is a key question we get from clients. I'd say we get something; that seems, sure.At the same time, it seems that Europe weighs a response that is taking into account all the constraints that are in the equation. After all the U.S. is an ally also in security concerns. You don't wanna necessarily endanger that good relationship. So that will for sure play a role. And then the U.S. has a services surplus with Europe, so it's also likely to be a response in the space of services regulation, which is not necessarily inflationary on the European side, and not necessarily growth impacting so much.But, you know, be it as it may. This is going to be down from here, for sure. And then the other thing just mentioned by Michael, I mean there is clearly a read across from a slower U.S. growth environment that will also not help growth in the Euro area. So, all being told it could very well mean, if we get the U.S. close to recession, that the Euro area is flirting with recession too.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Chetan Ahya: Seth, can I interrupt you on this one? I just wanted to add the perspective on retaliatory tariffs from China. What we had actually originally billed was that China would take up a retaliatory response, which would be less than be less than proportionate, just like the last time. But considering that China has actually, mashed U.S. reciprocal tariffs, it makes us feel that it's very unlikely that a deal will be done anytime soon.Seth Carpenter: Okay. So then how would you revise your view for what's going on with China?Chetan Ahya: Yeah, so as I mentioned earlier, we had already built in some downside but with these reciprocal tariffs, we see another 50 to 100 [basis points] downside to China's growth, depending upon how strong is the policy stimulus.Seth Carpenter: So, at some point, I suspect we're going to start having a discussion about what it really means to have a global recession, and markets are going to start to look to central banks.So, Mike, let me turn to you. Jay Powell spoke recently. He repeated that he is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Can you talk to me about the challenges that the Fed is facing right now?Michael Gapen: The Fed is faced with this problem where tariffs mean it's missing on both sides of its mandate, where inflation is rising and there's downside risk to the economy.So how do you respond to that?Really what Powell said is it's going to be tough for us to look through this rise in inflation and pre-emptively ease. So, for the moment they're on hold and they're just going to evaluate how the economy responds. If there's no recession, it likely means the Fed's on hold for a very long time. If we get negative job growth, if you will, or job cuts, then the Fed may be moving to ease policy. But right now, Powell doesn't know which one of those is going to materialize first.Seth Carpenter: Alright Mike. So, I understand what you're saying. Inflation going higher, growth going lower. Really awkward position for the Fed, and I think central banks around the world really have to weigh the two sides of these sorts of things, which one's going to dominate…Jens Eisenschmidt: Exactly. Seth, may I jump in here because I think that's a perfect segue to the ECB; which I was thinking a lot about that – just recently coming back from the U.S. – how different the position really is here. So, the ECB currently is on the way to neutral, at least as we have always thought as a good way of framing their way. Inflation is falling to target. Now with all the risks that we have mentioned, there's a clear risk we see. Inflation going below 2 percent, already by mid this year – if oil prices were to stay as low as they are and with the euro appreciation that we have seen.The tariffs scare in terms of the inflationary impact from tariffs, that's much less clear. Now, whether that's really something to worry about simply because what you typically see with these tariffs – it's actually a depreciation of the exchange rate, which we haven't seen. So, we think there is a clear risk, downside risk to our path; at least that we have an anticipation. A quicker rate cutting cycle by the ECB. And potentially if the growth outlook that we have just outlined all these risks really materializes, or threatens is more likely to materialize, then the cuts could also be deeper.Seth Carpenter: That's super tricky as well though, because they're going to have to deal with all the same uncertainty. I will say this brings up to me the Bank of Japan because it was the one major central bank that was going the opposite direction before all of this. They were hiking while the other central banks were cutting.So, Chetan, let me turn to you. Do you think the Bank of Japan's gonna be able to follow through on the additional rate hike that you all had already had in your forecast?Chetan Ahya: Yes Seth. I think Bank of Japan will have a difficult time. Japan is exposed to direct effect of 24 percent reciprocal tariffs. It will see downside from global trade slowdown, which will weigh on its exports and yen appreciation will weigh on its inflation outlook. Hence, unless if U.S. removes tariffs very quickly in the near term, we see the risk that BOJ will pause instead of hiking as we had assumed in our earlier base case.Seth Carpenter: Well, this is a good place to stop. Let me see if I can summarize the conversations we've had so far. Before this latest round of tariffs had been announced, we had thought there'd be some tariffs, and we had looked for a bit of slowdown in the U.S. and in Europe and in China – the three major economies in the world. But these new rounds of tariffs have added a lot to that slowdown pushing the, the global economy right up to the edge of recession. And what that means as well is for central banks, they're left in at least something of a bind. The Bank of Japan though, the one major central bank that had been hiking, boy, there's a really good chance that that rate hike gets derailed.Seth Carpenter: Well, thank you for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Ruský vyjednavač ve Washingtonu; Německo otevřelo první zahraničí vojenskou základnu. A začne zbrojit; Trump a Musk mlží ohledně penzijní reformy. Voliči proto křičí; Boj o dálniciVšechny díly podcastu Názory a argumenty můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day' on April 2nd; reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports.European bourses and US futures in the red given the above and into month & quarter end, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, ES -1.0%; NQ -1.3% with NVDA pressured.DXY has been on either side of the unchanged mark throughout the morning, EUR and GBP flat/slightly softer while USD/JPY hit a 148.71 low as the Nikkei 225 entered correction territory.Fixed benchmarks bid on the broad risk tone, German State CPIs sparked a fleeing move lower into the mainland figure, JGBs slipped as the BoJ cut its bond purchase amounts.Crude firmer as geopolitical tensions outweigh the macro tone following reports around Trump on Iran, XAU at a fresh record high, base metals dented.US President Trump threatened to bomb Iran if a nuclear deal can't be reached, while he also warned of secondary tariffs on Russian oil.Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI & Trump's executive orders.Note: UK clocks changed from GMT to BST on Sunday which means the London to New York time gap returned to five hours.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the latest policy updates from the Fed, BoJ, BoE. How is heightened uncertainty related to President Trump's policy plans impacting central bank communication? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

A) Three ThingsFed and BOJ stay PutMorgan Stanley Cutting JobsTennis Players Have No Love for the Sport's Hierarchy B) How the ‘Xi Put' is Driving China's Market Rally in 2025C) AI Bot PIPS Pick of the DayTrade while you sleep and across time zones with Arbitrage Trade Assist. Sign up today at ArbitrageTrade .com. Arbitrage Trade is your trusted source for business, finance, and tech info.#fyp, #news, #TrendingSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/arbitrage. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Germany pass historic debt reform in the Bundestag, launching a fiscal bazooka of infrastructure and defence spending. Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz says the move will help create a new European security alliance. Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a near-two hour phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump and agrees to cease attacks on Ukrainian energy installations but hopes of an immediate truce fall short. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy says his country's involvement in peace talks is paramount. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveils the firm's next generation of super-chips. And the BoJ decides to stay put on rates, signalling Tokyo's growing concerns over Trump tariffs. The Federal Reserve is due to make its rate decision later today. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region lacked firm conviction following the negative handover from Wall St.BoJ left rates unchanged as expected; Japan's economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weak signs.European equity futures indicate a steady open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with gains of 0.7%.DXY is a touch firmer, EUR/USD is lower but holding above 1.09, JPY is weaker post-BoJ.US President Trump said he and Russian President Putin agreed to an immediate ceasefire on all energy and infrastructure.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Labour Costs & Wages, NZ GDP, FOMC & BCB Policy Decisions, BoJ's Ueda, Fed Chair Powell, ECB's de Guindos, Elderson, NVIDIA CEO Huang, Supply from Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses began the session on the backfoot with the risk tone dented as a few potential factors influenced, US futures modestly firmer pre-FedUSD firmer, EUR and GBP hit by JPY-action on Ueda's press conference; BoJ itself was as expected, Ueda began balanced but had some hawkish points in his presserFixed income initially benefited on the slip in the risk tone but has since eased off best with USTs now slightly softer into the FOMCCrude remains pressured after Tuesday's geopolitical developments while Gas has picked up as strikes on energy infrastructure seemingly continueUkraine's Zelensky to speak with US' Trump on Wednesday and hopes a ceasefire will eventually be implementedLooking ahead, highlights include NZ GDP, FOMC & BCB Policy Decisions, Speakers include Fed Chair Powell, ECB's de Guindos, Elderson, NVIDIA CEO Huang, Earnings from General MillsClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The dollar is ending this week on a weaker footing and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes Head of UK, Ireland & Switzerland FX Corporate Sales about the drivers in the FX markets and looks ahead to the numerous central bank meetings taking place on Wednesday and Thursday. Derek hones in on the BoJ and the yen and highlights the key focuses of the BoJ meeting for the markets and how JGB yields are an important influence of JPY direction. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of next week’s Fed decision and earnings from FedEx. In the UK – a preview of Morgan Stanley’s European Financials Conference. In Asia – a preview of Tencent earnings and the next BOJ decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Market participants continue to grapple with a very high degree of uncertainty which is starting to have real economic consequences. The week ahead should be very interesting with key central bank decisions, and we could get some guidance on how policymakers think about and deal with the uncertainty, particularly from rising global trade tensions. We share our expectations for an on-hold decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and for the Fed's tone to continue to emphasize patience. We also expect a pause from the BOE's cutting cycle. Lastly, we discuss why communication is a bigger focus this time from the BOJ's meeting where a skip in the hiking cycle is widely expected. Chapters: US (01:53), Europe (10:39), Japan (16:43), Asia (21:22).

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of next week’s Fed decision and earnings from FedEx. In the UK – a preview of Morgan Stanley’s European Financials Conference. In Asia – a preview of Tencent earnings and the next BOJ decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US dollar remains weaker on a year-to-date basis on President Trump's more pragmatic approach to implementing trade tariffs. But that could be about to change. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of Japanese Customer FX Sales about the risks for the US dollar going forward given the imminent threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week and the numerous other tariff plans ahead. Derek also discusses the outlook for the yen on the back of more hawkish rhetoric from the BoJ and the potential for further gains ahead. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Rozmawiam z Teresą Ulanowską na temat zmian, dlaczego ich się boimy i jak je oswoić. Płynnie przechodzi nam temat na porażki i to, że jako rodzice chcemy być perfekcyjni, a to może prowadzić do wypalenia rodzicielskiego. Rozmowę kończymy pomysłami na praktyczne ćwiczenia, by oswajać zmianę. Warto posłuchać tej wdzięcznej rozmowy! Co znajdziesz w tym odcinku? • Dyskusja na temat tego, dlaczego ludzie boją się zmian i jak cechy osobowości oraz wychowanie wpływają na nasze podejście do zmian. • Rozmowa na temat tego, jak doświadczenia z dzieciństwa i wpływ rodziców kształtują nasze reakcje na zmiany i porażki. • Dyskusja na temat wypalenia rodzicielskiego i jego wysokiej częstości występowania w Polsce, szczególnie wśród perfekcjonistycznych rodziców. • Analiza tego, jak media społecznościowe i presje kulturowe przyczyniają się do stresu i wypalenia rodzicielskiego. • Prezentacja praktycznych ćwiczeń na radzenie sobie ze zmianami i porażkami, w tym napisanie listu do siebie z przyszłości. • Dyskusja na temat znaczenia przekształcania porażek w doświadczenia i możliwości nauki. Ciekawe myśli z rozmowy: Osobowość wpływa na to, jak radzimy sobie z porażkami. Bujna roślinność rośnie na glebie wulkanicznej. Zmiana jest nieodłącznym elementem rozwoju. Każda emocja jest drogowskazem do potrzeby. Z każdej porażki można wyciągnąć cenne lekcje. Dzieci uczą się poprzez naśladowanie dorosłych. Wypalenie rodzicielskie jest poważnym problemem. Musimy dbać o siebie, aby móc dbać o innych. Szukaj szczęścia tam, gdzie jesteś. Pisanie listów do siebie z przyszłości może być wspierające. Boję się i robię, to oznaka odwagi. Plan rozmowy: 00:00 - Wprowadzenie do tematu zmian 00:52 - Zapowiedź 01:50 - Dlaczego boimy się zmian? 06:00 - Pozytywne patrzenie na zmianę 10:03 – Lęk związany ze zmianami i powiązany z przeszłością 13:11 – Rozszerzanie języka emocji 17:43 – Wypalenie rodzicielskie 25:21 – Czy obecnie trudno jest wychowywać dzieci? 28:26 – Jak się przygotować na zmiany? 30:40 – Reakcja rodziców na temat informacji o dziecku nouroatypowym 34:13 – Ucieczka nie jest rozwiązaniem. 36:37 – Nie tkwijmy przy swoim, próbujmy nowych metod 44:05 – Jak ogarnąć stres w zmianie? 46:15 – Dwa ćwiczenia dla ciebie na koniec 53:35 – Zakończenie naszej rozmowy Badania na temat wypalenia rodzicielskiego – doktora Konrada Piotrowskiego – https://tiny.pl/qpwmycrp

European bourses are mostly higher after paring initial pressure following dire French PMIs; US futures are modestly mixed.DXY attempts to recoup lost ground, EUR weighed on by PMIs, JPY hit by Ueda remarks.BoJ Governor Ueda said if markets make abnormal moves, the BoJ stands ready to respond nimbly, such as through market operations, to smooth market moves.Bunds bolstered by soft PMI metrics; Commodities are pressured by the firmer Dollar.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, Canadian Retail Sales, Speakers include ECB's Lane, BoC's Macklem & Fed's Kugler & Jefferson.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly higher albeit with mixed price action seen following the subdued handover from Wall St where stocks declined amid geopolitical uncertainty, disappointing data and weak Walmart guidance, while participants in the region digested earnings releases and central bank commentary.Fed's Kugler (voter) said she believes the Fed should hold the policy rate in place for some time and noted there is currently a lot of uncertainty about the potential effect of President Trump's tariffs.Japanese CPI printed mostly above expectations; BoJ Governor Ueda said if markets make abnormal moves, the BoJ stands ready to respond nimbly, such as through market operations, to smooth market moves.US President Trump's administration gave Ukraine an "improved" draft for a minerals agreement between the countries after Ukrainian President Zelensky infuriated US President Trump by rejecting his initial offer, while sources on both sides now say a deal is now looking more likely, according to Axios.European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed flat on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, UK & Canada Retail Sales, Speakers including ECB's Lane, BoC's Macklem & Fed's Kugler & Jefferson, Earnings from Air Liquide, Standard Chartered & Poste Italiane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P futures are down (0.24%) as of now, pointing to a slightly lower open. Asian equities closed broadly weaker today. Profit-taking in Hong Kong tech names and speculation of a hawkish BOJ weighed on sentiment. European markets are mostly firmer in early trades, recovering from Wednesday's steep declines. Companies Mentioned: General Motors, Schlumberger, Matthews International

CELÝ DÍL SI PUSŤTE NA HEROHERO.CO/STUDION, DOSTUPNÝ JE TAKÉ V RÁMCI KLUBOVÉHO PŘEDPLATENÉHO DENÍKU N „Hrozně rád si hraju na to, že jsem hustej. Že jsem hrdina, který dělá odvážné kroky. Bojím se ale, že v reálném životě bych tu odvahu neměl,“ říká herec Oskar Hes, který vynikl v rolích odbojáře Josefa Mašína nebo šumavského převaděče Josefa Hasila. Vnímá bratry Mašíny jako hrdiny, nebo vrahy? Jak ho v životě ovlivnila šikana? Proč mu po StarDance vypovědělo tělo službu? Co si odnesl z knih Jordana B. Petersona? A proč mu imponuje raubířství? Poslechněte si celou epizodu Studia N.

„Nejvíc si asi cením svých cest po Barmě, Peru a Tibetu,“ říká Lucie Kohoutová Vinická s tím, že tyto cesty byly autentické a silné. Navštívila všechny obydlené kontinenty. „Afriku jsem si tak úplně nevybrala, ale během covidu byl východ kontinentu pro cestování na rozdíl od jiných míst dostupný,“ dodává. „Jsem tvrdohlavec,“ říká o sobě. „Bojím se málo, snad až příliš málo. A podívat se chci všude. Nikdy jsem nelitovala, že jsem někde byla.“Všechny díly podcastu Casablanca můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

Warren Buffett a világ egyik leggazdagabb embere. Vagyonát 128-130 milliárd dollárra (50.000 milliárd forintra) becsülik. Az amerikai milliárdos 2006-ban ígéretét tett arra, hogy jótékony célra fordítja a teljes vagyonának nem kevesebb, mint 99 százalékát. Ezt 2006-ban rögtön azzal kezdte, hogy több mint 34,5 milliárd dollárt (csaknem 10 ezer milliárd forintot) jótékonysági szervezeteknek adott. Az adományok négyötöd része a Gates Alapítványt támogatta, a többi a néhai feleségéről elnevezett Susan Thompson Buffett Alapítványnak és a gyermekei által működtetett három alapítványnak jutott. Vajon a magyar milliárdosok is rászánnák-e magukat hasonló gesztusra? Friderikusz Sándor költői kérdésére Bojár Gábor magyar milliárdos és Róbert Péter szociológus adott választ, 2006-ban.Hogyan támogathatja a munkánkat? - Legújabban már a Donably felületen is támogathat bennünket, itt ÁFA-mentesen segítheti munkavégzésünket: https://www.donably.com/friderikusz-podcast - De lehet a patronálónk a Patreon-on keresztül is, mert a támogatása mértékétől függően egyre több előnyhöz juthat: https://www.patreon.com/FriderikuszPodcast - Egyszerű banki átutalással is elismerheti munkavégzésünk minőségét. Ehhez a legfontosabb adatok az alábbiak: Név: TV Pictures Számlaszám: OTP Bank 11707062-21446081 Közlemény: Podcast-támogatás Ha külföldről utalna, nemzetközi számlaszámunk (IBAN - International Bank Account Number): HU68 1170 7062 2144 6081 0000 0000 BIC/SWIFT-kód: OTPVHUHB Akármilyen formában támogatja munkánkat, nagyon köszönjük!Kövessenek, kövessetek itt is:youtube: https://www.youtube.com/c/FriderikuszPodcastFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/FriderikuszPodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/friderikuszpodcastAnchor: https://anchor.fm/friderikuszpodcastSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3blRo2gYoutube Music: https://music.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLu6L9HlV4-KuNOYy_rS97rP_Q-ncvF14rApple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3hm2vfiDeezer: https://www.deezer.com/hu/show/1000256535

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 232 to his macro thesis for 2025 and beyond. Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class. This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/ US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:34 Analyzing the unprecedented factors propping up the economy under Biden 03:14 Framing a recession as proof Trump is restructuring the economy for the middle class 05:03 How illegal immigration juiced the economy and will now reverse 07:28 Potential clash of fiscal priorities in Trump administration 09:03 Housing market correction expected as Fed-induced liquidity unwinds 11:18 Investors have the inflation story wrong, bond yields headed lower 13:12 Passive investing dominance a risk as markets turn 15:08 Recessions create generational opportunities for wealth transfer 16:11 AI bubble looks like dot-com infrastructure build-out before revenues 18:21 DeepSeek upending AI cost model, long-term bullish but near-term volatility 20:33 Gold's historical relationship with Fed rate cuts and dollar 23:24 Immigration's role in boosting money velocity and skewing economic data 26:55 Getting out of fiscal dominance to boost private investment 29:54 Using dry powder and dollar cost averaging in market downturns 32:40 Why a bond market dislocation would be fast but not necessarily a crash 35:47 Dollar strength not at risk, Treasury demand in recession 38:43 Expecting Fed cuts at or before March meeting, following T-bill market 41:24 Banks' unrealized losses shifting from duration to credit risk, CRE troubles 43:50 Doge's promising early progress on spending cuts, debt reduction 45:31 Housing transaction volumes slumping, a leading indicator 46:04 BoJ's Hobson's choice a key risk to watch, potential currency crisis 49:05 Strong dollar a sign of global dollar liquidity issues 51:23 Optimistic on government spending revelations and a potential "golden age" 53:24 Key takeaways - don't fear recession, creates opportunities, report details

APAC stocks followed suit to the gains on Wall St where sentiment was underpinned amid a softer yield environment and the lack of trade war escalation.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump wants lower 10-year yields; is not calling for the Fed to lower rates.European equity futures indicate a positive cash open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Wednesday.DXY is sub-108, antipodeans lag, EUR/USD has returned to a 1.04 handle, JPY supported by hawkish BoJ comments.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPI, EZ Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, BoE, CNB & Banxico Policy Announcements, BoE DMP, BoE Governor Bailey, Fed's Waller, Daly, Jefferson & BoC's Macklem, Supply from Spain & France.Earnings from ING, ArcelorMittal, Oersted, Carlsberg, Maersk. Compass, AstraZeneca, Société Generale, Vinci, L'Oréal, Eli Lilly, Roblox, Amazon & Affirm.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome back Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Mike reflects on his previous bullish pivot due to improved liquidity and the unexpected resilience of the market. They discuss the importance of earnings forecasts, the impact of liquidity on high-quality stocks, and potential shifts in international flows. The conversation turns to the passive investing trend, potential economic factors affecting interest rates, and the influence of international monetary policies, such as the BOJ's rate decisions. Key topics include the role of earnings revisions, currency impacts on multinationals, and how various sectors might react to the evolving economic landscape. The podcast delves into market valuations, the potential of AI, CapEx cycles, and the broader implications of liquidity. They conclude by discussing investor sentiment, the resilience of high-quality stocks, and the broader economic outlook heading into the first half of the year. -- Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Today we look at the latest flurry of Trump headlines and whether we are any the wiser on where tariff policies are headed, even as the market takes some encouragement. We sort through some of the next questions to ask about Trump policy as well, especially whether he'll get what he wants from the oil and gas market: lower prices. Elsewhere, the market is issuing a collective yawn after the BoJ hike overnight. And we flag the big event risks of next week and an interesting US option market indicator that suggests some nervousness despite record levels in the US S&P 500. Today features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Chief Macro Strategist John J. Hardy. See John's Q1 Macro Outlook here. See John's Q1 FX Outlook here. See Ole's Q1 Commodity Outlook here. See Charu's Equity Outlook here.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates a quarter point, as had been signaled in the media in advance. The BoJ appears to have confidence in rising wages, and like other central banks is following the trend of inflation (the difference is that Japan's trend is rising). We expect one further rate increase this year.

US equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open today. European markets have opened in the positive territory, following mostly higher levels in Asian markets. Market focus is on BOJ after its 25bps hike, with statement noting likelihood of realizing projections has been rising. Tariff headline volatility continues with Trump voicing hesitation about imposing tariffs on China.Companies mentioned: Intuitive Surgica, Boeing

S&P Futures are trading slightly lower this morning due to weakness in semiconductors. Markets are questioning the numbers and the timing of the recently announced Stargate Project. Key event today will be President Trump's speech today at Davos summit. Trump is schedule to speat at 11:00 am ET. His interview last night was rather uneventful as the focus was on his issues with former president Biden and FEMA. Central Bank meetings are on watch, the BOJ will make an announcement tomorrow, FOMC announcement on Jan 29th, and the ECB announcement is scheduled for Jan 30th. Earnings beats came in from ALK, DFS, GE, and MKC. After the bell today TXN and ISRG will report, and tomorrow morning AXP & VZ will report. European shares are mixed to higher & oil prices are higher by +0.50% this morning.

In this episode, Brent Donnelly joins the show to discuss his tariff expectations, how that will impact the currency market, and the framework he uses for trading FX. We also delve into carry trades, China and the yuan, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Brent Donnelly: https://x.com/donnelly_brent Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Make FX Great Again (01:51) Tariff Expectations (07:52) Inflation, Yields, & The Dollar (13:30) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (14:39) The Fed Reaction Function (17:27) Equity Valuations (19:23) FX Framework (28:02) Ads (Skale, Ledger) (29:19) Carry Trades (34:32) BOJ & Market Surprises (42:17) Canada & CAD/USD (47:21) China & Yuan (53:40) Long-Term Dollar View (56:55) Learn More About Brent's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter weighs the myriad variables which could impact global markets in 2025, and why this year may be the most uncertain for economies since the start of the pandemic.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist, and today I'll be talking about 2025 and what we might expect in the global economy.It's Tuesday, January 7th at 10am in New York.Normally, our year ahead outlook is a roadmap for markets. But for 2025, it feels a bit more like a choose your own adventure book.uncertainty is a key theme that we highlighted in our year ahead outlook. The new U.S. administration, in particular, will choose its own adventure with tariffs, immigration, and fiscal policy.Some of the uncertainty is already visible in markets with the repricing of the Fed at the December meeting and the strengthening of the dollar. Our baseline has disinflation stalling on the back of tariffs and immigration policy, while growth moderates, but only late in the year as the policies are gradually phased in.But in reality, the sequencing, the magnitude and the timing of these policies remains unknown for now, but they're going to have big implications for the economies and central banks around the world. The U.S. economy comes into the year on solid footing with healthy payrolls and solid consumption spending.Disinflation is continuing, and the inflation data for November were in line with our forecast, but softer in terms of PCE than what the Fed expected. While the Fed did lower their policy rate 25 basis points at the December meeting, Chair Powell's tone was very cautious, and the Fed's projections had inflation risks skewed to the upside.The chair noted that the FOMC was only beginning to build in assumptions about policy changes from the new administration. Now, we have conviction that tariffs and immigration restriction will both slow the economy and boost inflation -- but we've assumed that these policies are phased in gradually over the entirety of the year. And consequently -- that materially Stagflationary impetus? Well, it's reserved for 2026, not this year.Similarly, we've assumed that effectively the entire year is consumed by the process of tax cut extensions. And so, we've penciled in no meaningful fiscal impetus for this year. And in fact, with the bulk of the process simply extending current tax policy, we have very little net fiscal impact, even in 2026.Now, in China, the deflationary pressure is set to continue with any policy reaction further complicated by U.S. policy uncertainty. The policymaker meeting in late December that they held provided only a modest upside surprise in terms of fiscal stimulus, so we're going to have to wait for any further details on that spending until March with the National People's Congress.Meanwhile, during our holiday break, the renminbi broke above 7.3, and that level matches roughly the peaks that we saw in 2022 and 2023. The strong dollar is clearly weighing on the fixing. The framework for policy will have to account for a potentially trade relationship with the U.S. So, again, in China, there's a great deal of uncertainty, a lot of it driven by policy.The euro area is arguably less exposed to U.S. trade risks than China. A weaker euro may help stabilize inflation that's trending lower there, but our growth forecasts suggest a tepid outlook. Private consumption spending should moderate, and maybe firm a bit, as inflation continues to fall, and continued policy easing from the ECB should support CapEx spending.Fiscal consolidation, though, is a key risk to growth, especially in France and Italy, and any postponement in investment from potential trade tensions could further weaken growth.Now, in Japan, the key debate is whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates in January or March. After the last Bank of Japan meeting, Governor Ueda indicated a desire for greater confidence on the inflation outlook.Nonetheless, we've retained our call that the hike will be in January because we believe the Bank of Japan's regional Branch manager meeting will give sufficient insight about a strong wage trend. And in combination with the currency weakness that we've been watching, we think that's gonna be enough for the BOJ to hike this month. Alternatively, the BOJ might wait until the Rengo negotiation results come out in March to decide if a hike is appropriate. So far, the data remains supportive and Japanese style core CPI inflation has gone to 2.7 per cent in November. The market's going to focus on Deputy Governor Himino's speech on January 14th for clues on the timing – January or March.Finally, as the Central Bank of Mexico highlighted in their most recent rate cut decision, caution is the word as we enter the new year. As economists, we could not agree more. The year ahead is the most uncertain since the start of the pandemic. Politics and policy are inherently difficult to forecast. We fully expect to revise our forecasts more -- and more often than usual.Thanks for listening, and if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.