Podcasts about Boj

“Japan panics. The rest of the world just hasn't realized it yet.” - Michael Gayed. The BOJ is losing the war to save the yen—and the reverse carry trade is about to trigger a global margin call.

The conclusion of our two-part episode from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit looks at structural shifts in Japan's economy and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's strategic growth agenda.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. This is Part 2 of our podcast from the Japan Summit.It's Friday, May 22nd at 8 am in Tokyo.I might stick with equities for just a minute, and Sho, just to dig deeper into the equity market. Jonathan expressed some of the bullishness. Anything you want to elaborate on where the real strong conviction on this positive view about Japanese equities is coming from?And then just as a warning, I'm going to come back to you and ask, if you're wrong, where could you be wrong? Because again, I think where we add value most to clients is not just giving a clear view, but also pressure testing that view.Sho Nakazawa: Our constructive view on Japan equities comes down to one simple point. Three structural changes are still continuing. So, the first is shifting macro environment. The combination of stable inflation and wage growth is a kind of phenomenon we have not seen, at least in my lifetime. It changes corporates and households' behavior, especially in terms of balance sheet management.And then secondly, the corporates profit improvements. We do not see it as a cyclical recovery. We see it as a structural change. As in the past, Japan corporates heavily relied on cost-cutting amid a deflationary environment. But today, price pass-through is improving, and the Japan corporates are becoming better positioned in growth profit in nominal growth environment.The third is corporate governance reform. Awareness of the capital efficiency has clearly increased. We continue to see share buybacks, dividends increase, and a portfolio restructuring as well. And on top of that, the Takaichi administration has made growth investment and crisis management investment as well.Of course, the Middle East situation is a source of noise. But structurally is a supporting factor for Japan equities secular bear market, which is a view Jonathan has held for very long time, has actually becoming stronger.But let me say that if I'm wrong, maybe I should be more bullish. In fact, the two key drivers here, if we assess the bear case scenario on Japan equities…So, one key driver should be the upside come from the investors constructive view on the Japan fiscal efficiency. And on a micro level, the corporate behavior changing faster than market expects. If we assess the recent rise in long-term yields, it reflect the concern to the Japan fiscal position and that BoJ behind the curve.It would weigh on the Japan equity valuation because it raises cost of capital and it weighs on the Japan equity valuation. But on the other hand, [the] Japanese government will disclose its basic policy in June. And if it could include a credible plan to improve Japan's fiscal positions, perhaps under Japan version of DOGE, which is led by Financial Minister Katayama-san, I think it could alleviate the excessive concern toward the Japan's fiscal position, and it [could] lower the cost of capital on Japan equities.You know, micro level, the corporates behavior is already changing, as I mentioned. But there's still plenty, you know, space for Japan corporates to utilize non-cash generating assets such as cash and deposit, which is equivalent to 60 percent of GDP. The ratio is far higher than our global peers.So, if Japan corporates move further to capital efficiency or portfolio restructuring or use some excess capital, I think there should be additional room for Japan equity market to re-rate higher.Seth Carpenter: All right. So, if you're wrong, it's insufficient bullishness. That's a great place to be.So, so Koichi, Jonathan and Sho are bullish on equities. And so, do you expect big shift in capital flows, and would that drive further appreciation of the currency? How do you think about the global investors' view of Japan? And what it means for capital flows on the one hand, and the value of the currency on the other?Koichi Sugisaki: As for the capital flows, I think under this fresh regime, what's the notable change among the Japanese financials? That they are shifting away from the fixed income product, I mean, like JGBs.Given the current attractive yields, you maybe wonder[ing] why the banking sectors buy the JGBs. But according to the recent disclosures, they have not purchased the JGBs much because their lending activity performed very well. So, as far as their lending activity have performed well, they have no incentive to make money in the securities investment.You know, their lending activity have accelerated thanks to the corporate CapEx investment to improve the productivity amidst the labor shortages in Japan. Once the banking sector starts to see some slowdown or some symptom of the lending activity to slow down, in such a case, they are quickly shifted to the securities investment and the JGB market will change the world.But so far, you know, lending growth [has] accelerated much. You know, the April lending growth is around 6 percent on the year-on-year basis, very strong. So, I think the banking sector still not have a[n] incentive to buy the JGBs.As for the lifers, [the] case is much more serious, I think. Because of the younger ages shifting towards the equities to defend the asset, particularly under the new NISA scheme [which] was launched in 2024. The younger peoples basically allocate their asset to the equities rather than the saving type of the products.Which means that the lifers are struggling to make, to gather the new monies. And this means that the demand for the long-term JGB to shrink. And the Japan lifers already filled the duration this much by 2023 to prepare for the new regulations starting from this fiscal year. Now, fortunately, they already finished the duration this much, this type of operation by 2023. But the yield [has] gone up from 2024, thanks to the BoJ's normalization.So, under such conditions, they are now struggling to the high market loss on the long-term JGBs. And some of lifers are now facing the impairment loss accounting. That actually [makes] lifers a net seller of the long-term JGBs rather than the buyers.Seth Carpenter: Okay, super helpful. Okay, we focused a lot on near-term developments, the energy shock, first quarter GDP. But we can think about a longer-term growth scenario. And there, I think AI comes in at times. Chetan, you've talked about the near-term super cycle, and I think there's a near-term aggregate demand side to AI, but over the longer term, maybe it's more supply.When I think about where growth is going, though, I also think about shifts in the strategy for policy. So maybe Yamaguchi-san, you can talk to me a bit on your take of Prime Minister Takaichi's policies. What do we think is likely to get announced? When? How do you see it affecting the long-term growth outlook for Japan?Takeshi Yamaguchi: [The] Japanese government publishes growth strategy report and the basic policy on fiscal management or honebuto policy in June every year. But I think this year's, you know, documents will be pretty important because these are the first documents under the Takaichi administration.And these documents will set the direction of economic policy by Takaichi-san, Sanae Takaichi. Or Sanae-nomics. Compared with Abenomics, I think Takaichi-san focuses more on the supply side issues, you know, supply domestic investment. While Abenomics focused more on the exit from deflation, focusing on demand side policy, particularly, you know, monetary easing.In the growth strategy report, the focus will be strategic investment in 17 strategic areas, including AI, especially, you know, AI robotics, semiconductors, defense and space, cybersecurity, and content industry and so on.Another important point of Sanaeconomic system, there's overlap between these strategic investment areas and national securities. The government will also update its defense strategy by the end of this year, and there'll be a increase in the defense budget target. The focus will be a lot on, you know, I think, dual use technologies, and also resilience of supply chains going ahead.Another important point is, I think there will be a change in the budget formation process. I think, under deflation there's effectively cap on non-social security spending. But I think this government will likely allocate budget, you know, for multi-investment. So, I think the budget process will be more flexible. And they put more emphasis on the initial budget rather than the supplementary budget.So, I think, these documents will be pretty important to monitor going ahead. But overall, I think, the government – yes, they do care about the market conditions. They will likely avoid massive, you know, expansion. But I think a slight expansion, especially in the area of strategic investment is likely to happen.Seth Carpenter: Very helpful. Alright, that's the end of the panel. Thank you very much to my colleagues. And this is where I have to shift back into podcast mode to say thank you for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a colleague or friend today. Thank you very much, everybody.

Boj o větrníky. Co jsou to akcelerační zóny? Proč s nimi tolik lidí nesouhlasí? Hrozí Česku, že bez nich přijde o unijní peníze? A jakou roli v tom hraje vládní zmocněnec Filip Turek? Ptám se Viktora Votruby z Hospodářských novin, který se věnuje obnovitelným zdrojům a životnímu prostředí. Ptá se Matěj Skalický.Všechny díly podcastu Vinohradská 12 můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

Boj o větrníky. Co jsou to akcelerační zóny? Proč s nimi tolik lidí nesouhlasí? Hrozí Česku, že bez nich přijde o unijní peníze? A jakou roli v tom hraje vládní zmocněnec Filip Turek? Ptám se Viktora Votruby z Hospodářských novin, který se věnuje obnovitelným zdrojům a životnímu prostředí. Ptá se Matěj Skalický.

Send us Fan MailTrump says Iran talks in ‘final stages' but investors remain nervous. Oil prices pare losses amid worries about supply and depleting inventories. Dollar regains front foot after weak May PMIs in Asia and Europe. Yen breaches 159 per dollar again despite hawkish BoJ comments. Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Boj o větrníky. Co jsou to akcelerační zóny? Proč s nimi tolik lidí nesouhlasí? Hrozí Česku, že bez nich přijde o unijní peníze? A jakou roli v tom hraje vládní zmocněnec Filip Turek? Ptám se Viktora Votruby z Hospodářských novin, který se věnuje obnovitelným zdrojům a životnímu prostředí. Ptá se Matěj Skalický.

In deze aflevering van Side Quest bespreken we de game van het moment: Subnautica 2. Sjaak is er letterlijk in gedoken en zeer positief over de game, al is het nog duidelijk een early access-titel. Verder is Sjaak ook gedoken in een andere game met mogelijk een nog beladenere achtergrond: Zero Parades for Dead Spies. Daarnaast schuift onze gloednieuwe reviewer Boj aan om te vertellen over Titanium Court, een indietitel die zeker de moeite waard is. Tom blijft Marathon spelen en Kees van der Spek kijken, maar een discussie over Euphoria seizoen 3 komt ook voorbij. Boj is naar de bioscoop geweest om The Sheep Detectives te zien en was daar best positief over.Hoofdstukken:(00:00:00) Intro(00:00:30) Sjaak en Riftbound(00:04:10) Wie is Boj?(00:07:10) Hoe is het met Tom en zijn Mieren?(00:09:10) Titanium Court, wat is dit?(00:15:05) Het uitgaansleven van Boj en zijn podcast(00:18:15) Subnautica 2 is cool(00:35:00) Zero Parades for Dead Spies is eigenlijk wel goed(00:51:00) Battlefield 6 en Overwatch (heel kort)(00:51:40) Fortnite of is dit Overwatch?(00:54:00) Marathon, trouwens welke games hebben wij het meest gespeeld?(01:04:00) Grand Theft Auto 6 pre-orders, waar zijn ze?(01:12:20) Waar kijken we dit jaar nog naar uit? GTA 6 is banned voor deze stelling(01:21:50) The Boys, is dit een seizoensfinale?(01:27:42) Euphoria seizoen 3 is best okay(01:34:01) Kees van der Spek blijft cool(01:36:50) The Sheep Detectives, eigenlijk wel leuk(01:38:20) Outro

Oil falls and and stocks rise on Middle East peace hopes. Australia's jobs data today will be closely watched by the RBA for weakness. And Bank Indonesia opts for a jumbo 50 basis point hike. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman says the Yen may not weaken much further from here, as long-dated Government bond yields rise and BoJ hikes come closer. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Can we influence the strong nuclear force? Neil deGrasse Tyson and Paul Mecurio answer grab bag questions about sci-fi laser guns, the Roche Limit, how we interact with the fundamental forces, and more! NOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can listen to this entire episode commercial-free here:  https://startalkmedia.com/show/cosmic-queries-scars-in-spacetime/ Thanks to our Patrons Gladys Strickland, Jonathan Marino, Petri Rajama, Benjamin Cross, Smooth, Cecelia Linley, John Burgin, Elizabeth Shope, Barrett Mayes, Paweł Szczypa, Ivan Ocampo, Angelo Rios, Luisangel Araujo, B-RO RTR, Sebastian Poehlmann, Kendra, Charles, LateGame, Stephanie, Denis, Joseph Hodge, Daniel Smith, Matt Sutton, Ziyod Yusupov, TheAceIsHere _, Robert Baughman, Patricia Weaver, Scott Jones, Luis Figueroa, TheJosh, Justin Garrity, J. Michael Mastro, Andreas Sorteberg Vik, Christian Di Patria, Steve Kingan, Martha, Nick, Jeff Ferren, Louise Keyte, Ann Hosler, Darren, Roni Gi, Salacious B Crumb, Tero Tommola, Dhaval, Andy Roberts, Brian Simmons, Toney, Remedy, Terry Melman, David Smith, Andrew M Gross, Conan, Raz, Joseph Watkins, Joe, Dom WB, Mike Bertuccio, Deepak Mani, Adam Dockerty, Mike, Habib Hassan, Exercise Enlightenment, Everett, Twisted Universe, Jason Prechtl, Luis Antonio Leon, SwillisBolt, Switchblade91, Linda Hall, Bo J, Megan Marler, Dalton, Jim, Chris Brown, Krisztian Unpronounceable, Donce, Jay, Jacob, Suzan Wallace, Ted, Steve James, TERP Radio, Sublimis, Alexander Casian, Onlymeami, Zack Blankenship, John Perez, Specter, DJ, Kristian Jeremiassen, Adam Flores, Dan Herman, Zef Correal, Maddie, Adam, Mark, Mary, Andrew494, and Matthew Grieve for supporting us this week. Subscribe to SiriusXM Podcasts+ to listen to new episodes of StarTalk Radio ad-free and a whole week early.Start a free trial now on Apple Podcasts or by visiting siriusxm.com/podcastsplus. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Send us Fan MailMiddle East negotiations continue to dominate market sentiment. Elevated oil prices and Treasury yields cast a shadow over equities. A strong market decline could force Trump's hand; could Nvidia earnings trigger it? Dollar/yen reached ¥159, fresh intervention is imminent; has the BoJ learnt its lesson?Dollar hits 2-month high on Middle East tensions. Higher oil prices add to inflation fears and increase Fed hike bets. Yen enters intervention zone, pound weakens ahead of key data. Wall Street pulls back, gold falls below key support zone.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Když se narodil, v USA fungovala rasová segregace a ženám v těhotenství se doporučovalo kouřit. Boj s předsudky, tyranský otec, snaha prosadit se v “bílém” světě, kontroverze, obvinění, soudy. A taky hity a prodeje, které dodnes nikdo nepřekonal.

„Nechci mít dítě v současném světě.“ „Bojím se, že se o něj nebudu umět postarat.“ „Bojím se, že to nezvládnu.“ „Lidí je dost a já další na svět přivádět nebudu…“ Odpovědi mladých lidí ve věku 20–25 let na otázku, zda chtějí mít děti, jsou různorodé. Skutečně jen málokdy zazní konkrétní odpověď typu: nemám byt, nemám peníze, případně chci se soustředit na kariéru a dítě by mi překáželo.Všechny díly podcastu Názory a argumenty můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

15/5 Seconda giornata di Vertice Trump-XI. Bene la collaborazione ma il mercato voleva progressi immediati su Iran. I mercati asiatici virano quando Trump dice che agli Usa non serve riaprire Hormuz “serve più a loro che a noi” poi ritratta: siamo d'accodo su riapertura stretto e no al nucleare iraniano. XI inauguriamo una nuova relazione tra le parti nel segno di una costruttiva stabilità strategica. Torna allarme inflazione: Treasury sopra il 4,5%, due anni al 4%. Petrolio risale, Brent a 107$. Trump: la Cina comprerà greggio da noi per soddisfare la sua “fame insaziabile”. Futures in rosso dopo che Greer ha detto che chip non sono stati questione centrale delle discussioni.  GS: record guidato dal settore retail. Analisi: la bolla di allora e di oggi. Il portafoglio di Trump fa discutere, acquisti sul Tech dopo il ribasso di marzo. Cerebras, lpo dell'anno +70% al debutto. SPaceX più vicina, settimana prossima il prospetto. Anthropic i dettagli del funding da 30 miliardi: valutazione a 900 miliardi di dollari. OpenAi contro Apple, possibile azione legale. *** Questo episodio è offerto da Scalable Capital   Investire comporta rischi  Interesse p.a. lordo variabile su liquidità illimitata. Condizioni e distribuzione della liquidità su scalable.capital/conto-deposito-non-vincolato*** Asia in rosso, pausa al rally del Tech. Nikkei -1,5%, Kospi cede il 5%. Takaichi oggi call con Trump. Giappone: prezzi all'ingrosso +2,3% al mese, maggior crescita da tre anni. Nafta +79%. BOJ verso rialzo a giugno. Decennale nuovo massimo al 2,72%, yen in ritirata. In Europa futures in rosso. Attesa inflazione in Italia e bollettino economico Bce. Decisioni su rating di Germania, Grecia e Portogallo. Il monito di Draghi, le sfide a Keir Starmer. Focus su Ferragamo, Webuild, Telecom Italia e conti di Unipol  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Scott Bessent ha visitado Japón esta semana para gestionar un problema que amenaza directamente al mercado de deuda americana: cada vez que Tokio interviene para defender el yen, vende bonos del Tesoro estadounidense y empuja al alza sus tipos de interés. Pero el problema es estructural, no coyuntural. Con una deuda pública en torno al 250% del PIB y déficit crónico, Japón ya no puede subvencionar barata la deuda americana como ha venido haciendo durante tres décadas vía represión monetaria. En este vídeo analizamos las tres salidas posibles —intervención, subida del BOJ, dejar caer el yen— y por qué todas conducen al alza de los tipos americanos. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Iscriviti a Black Box Script, la nuova newsletter di Black Box: ⁠⁠⁠https://blackboxchora.substack.com/⁠⁠⁠ Scopri The Last Question, il primo Tech Summit di Black Box a Roma l'1 e 2 luglio 2026: ⁠⁠⁠https://thelastquestion.choramedia.com/⁠ 12/5 Trump: il cessate il fioco è come un malato terminale, 1% di chances che sopravviva.  Allo studio interventi militari e nuovo Project freedom. Ghalibaf: “pronti a tutte le opzioni, resteranno sorpresi”. Attesa per vertice Trump-Xi sul tavolo potenziale fornitura armi cinesi a Iran. Con Trump una dozzina di CEOs tra cui Elon Musk, Tim Cook e Larry Fink. Atteso ordine record per Boeing. Brent +1% a 105 dollari. Per MS è una corsa contro il tempo. Per il CEO di Saudi Aramco il mercato potrebbe non normalizzarsi fino al 2027. Sale il dollaro, salgono rendimenti Treasury. Via libera al senato per Kevin Warsh, giovedì possibile passaggio consegne con Powell. Futures in rosso. S&P500 riparte da 7400 punti e dai record, idem per Nasdaq . oggi attesa per Cpi a 3,8% +0,6% mese su mese, Core al 2,7%. Anche per Goldman Sachs e Bofa Fed in pausa nel 2026. Bolla come nel 1999? Wall Street divisa sulla corsa verticale dei chip. Ieri altra riscossa dei semiconduttori con Western Digital, Micron, Intel, Nvidia che ha battuto un nuovo record storico.  Nadella al processo Musk-Altman: tentativo rimozione Altman da board “amatoriale”. Amazon i dipendenti “gonfiano” utilizzo MeshClaw. Iscriviti a The Talk, la newsletter di Will e Chora che mette al centro le storie delle donne: ⁠⁠⁠https://thetalkwillmedia.substack.com/⁠⁠⁠ *** Questo episodio è offerto da Scalable Capital   Investire comporta rischi  Interesse p.a. lordo variabile su liquidità illimitata. Condizioni e distribuzione della liquidità su scalable.capital/conto-deposito-non-vincolato*** Asia mista, Nikkei e Hang Seng in verde. Kospi -2% (perdeva oltre il 5%): per il reponsabile delle politiche presidenziali profitti e entrare fiscali AI dovrebbero essere restituiti ai cittadini. Bessent incontra la ministra Katayama: coordinati su interventi Yen. Poi a Seoul per incontro con vice-premier cinese Le Hefeng. Bond giapponesi: rendimento max da 27 anni: BOJ verso aumento tassi a giugno. In Europa futures… Oggi Inflazione aprile in Germania e ZEW maggio. Italia:  Produzione industriale marzo. Masayoshi Son valuta investimento da 100mld in datacenter in Francia. Focus su Gilt, oggi riunione di Governo: Starmer resiste. Mediobanca: ricavi in crescita, CIB in recupero. Fincantieri ordini primi 4 mesi superano obiettivo annuale. Guidance alzata. Focus su TIM. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Send us Fan MailDollar rebounds amid renewed Hormuz uncertainty. Inflation concerns reemerge ahead of nonfarm payrolls. Japan's wage data support BoJ rate hike case. Wall Street pulls back but outlook remains bright.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Boj o vysoké příčky v hudebních žebříčcích svádí Zara Larsson s remixovým tanečním albem, emo North West pro změnu s rage rapem. O přízeň se uchází i nový singl Sabriny Carpenter a Madonny z chystaného alba i kýčovitá Lady Gaga, nevkusná Meghan Trainor nebo průměrná Charlotte Gott.

Boj o vysoké příčky v hudebních žebříčcích svádí Zara Larsson s remixovým tanečním albem, emo North West pro změnu s rage rapem. O přízeň se uchází i nový singl Sabriny Carpenter a Madonny z chystaného alba i kýčovitá Lady Gaga, nevkusná Meghan Trainor nebo průměrná Charlotte Gott.Všechny díly podcastu Slejvák můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

Seven tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, against a pre-war baseline of 140. The world's most important oil choke point is running at 5% capacity. So why did the S&P 500 just post its best April since 2020?Jeremy McKeown walks through the four stories driving markets right now: an energy shock, a bond market in revolt, a fracturing monetary order, and the deepest institutional crisis at the Fed in modern history, and the AI CapEx cycle holding it all together.In this episode:– Brent at $126, LNG up 61%, and Goldman's warning on non-linear price spikes – Why BlackRock says the 60/40 portfolio is broken – The UAE quits OPEC and asks the Fed for a dollar swap line — while quietly talking to Beijing – Saudi Arabia, the petrodollar, and the day the yuan settles oil – Four FOMC dissenters, the most since 1992, and Powell breaking 75 years of precedent – Kevin Warsh arrives on record wanting to cut into a supply shock – Coordinated hawkishness from the ECB, BoE, and BoJ — with the yen approaching 160 – The $670bn AI CapEx engine — bigger than Sweden's GDP — holding the tape up – Why Meta sold off 7% on a beat-and-raise – Picks and shovels vs. the hyperscalers: where the asymmetry sits nowThree things to watch: the Hormuz tanker count, the ECB on June 11th, and whether Tokyo defends the yen at 160.A brief on a market climbing a wall of worry that gets taller every day.For deeper analysis between episodes, subscribe to Jeremy's Substack, HyperNormalTimes.Brought to you by Progressive Equity & partner: Finance Talking — capital markets and business finance training, trusted by Rio Tinto, HSBC, Unilever, and Shell.The views expressed are for information and entertainment only, not financial advice.

S&P futures are down (0.2%) as of now, pointing to a slightly lower open. Asian equities traded mostly lower on Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei closed (1%) lower following the BoJ rate decision. Greater China markets were also lower, while South Korea and Taiwan benchmarks extended record gains, supported by semiconductors and AI demand. European markets are firmer in early trading.Companies Mentioned: Meta Platforms, Dynatrace

US President Trump is reportedly not satisfied with and is unlikely to accept the Iranian proposal; CNN reports that the US and Iran are not as far apart as they seem.BoJ maintained its policy rate as expected, though subject to a hawkish 6-3 vote split, dissenters highlighted upside risks to inflation. Ueda non-committal on the timing of the next move.European bourses firmer, lifting incrementally after a contained open. US futures are mixed/lower into earnings and after OpenAI missed internal targets.JPY led post-BoJ before retreating and weakening on Ueda, USD firmer to the modest detriment of peers across the board; base & precious metals hit.Energy bolstered by the overnight updates, and as Iran's Foreign Minister is not returning to Pakistan post-Russia.Fixed falters as energy climbs, Bunds hit by the latest ECB surveys, Gilts lag into the Privileges debate regarding PM Starmer.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly Employment Change, US House Price Index (Feb), US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr), US Richmond Fed Index (Apr), US Dallas Fed Index (Apr), NBH Policy Announcement (Apr), and speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Supply from the US.Earnings from RobinHood, Bloom Energy, Visa, Booking.com, NXP Semiconductor, UPS, Coca-Cola, Spotify, General Motors, Centene.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump is reportedly not satisfied with and is unlikely to accept the Iranian proposal; CNN reports that the US and Iran are not as far apart as they seem.BoJ maintained its policy rate as expected, though subject to a hawkish 6-3 vote split, dissenters highlighted upside risks to inflation.APAC pressured after the reporting around Trump, Nikkei 225 underperformed after the BoJ's hawkish-hold.DXY initially contained but then ticked higher, JPY benefited from the BoJ; JGBs gapped lower, but the move retraced, USTs rangebound.Crude supported by the reporting from the Situation Room, metals hit by the risk tone, hawkish action, and USD gains.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Retail Sales (Mar), Italian PPI (Mar), US ADP Weekly Employment Change, US House Price Index (Feb), US CB Consumer Confidence (Apr), US Richmond Fed Index (Apr), US Dallas Fed Index (Apr), NBH Policy Announcement (Apr), Speakers include BoJ Governor Ueda and ECB President Lagarde, Supply from the Netherlands, UK and US.Earnings from RobinHood, Bloom Energy, Visa, Booking.com, NXP Semiconductor, UPS, Coca-Cola, Spotify, General Motors, Centene, Airbus, Air Liquide, BP & Barclays.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

President Trump says Iran can pick up the phone after cancelling his envoys' negotiation trip to Pakistan. Axios reports Tehran is to table a new proposal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz should nuclear discussions be postponed. A gunman rushes a checkpoint at the Washington Hilton hosting the White House Correspondents' Association dinner, raising criticisms of President Trump's security arrangements. European futures are sanguine ahead of what's set to be a full week of blue chip earnings as well as five of the Mag Seven companies. Rate decisions from the Fed, BoJ, ECB and BoE will also be in focus later this week.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss how the FX majors have been performing ahead of the upcoming BoJ, Fed, BoE & ECB policy meetings. Wil the European central banks stick to more hawkish guidance than the BoJ and Fed?

This week, we preview decisions from the Fed, ECB, and BOE, but expect no fireworks. In Asia, the BOJ may sound hawkish but BOT is likely dovish. In a special segment, our head of Global Macro Research, Rob Subbaraman, argues that the bark of central banks will be bigger than their bite. Chapters: US: 2:10; Europe: 8:37; Japan: 15:48; Asia: 20:28; Central Banks Special Segment: 22:48

Zaměstnanci ČT a ČRo vyhlásili stávkovou pohotovost. Bojí se, že vláda plánovanými změnami financování ohrozí jejich nezávislost a schopnost plnit zákonné povinnost. Porušily by takové změny evropské nařízení o svobodě médií? Hostem Ptám se já je bývalá eurokomisařka Věra Jourová. Odbory a pracovníci České televize, Českého rozhlasu a iniciativa Veřejnoprávně ve středu vyhlásili časově neomezenou stávkovou pohotovost kvůli chystanému vládnímu zákonu o médiích veřejné služby. Ten mimo jiné převádí financování veřejnoprávních médií z poplatků na státní  rozpočet. Podle nich by návrh vedl k rozkolísání rozpočtu a hromadnému propouštění a média by nemohla naplňovat poslání. Podle ministra kultury Oto Klempíře (za Motoristy) ale vládní předloha garantuje pokračování nezávislosti televize i rozhlasu, odboráři podle něj mohou vznést návrhy na další garance v připomínkovém řízení.Opoziční strany stávkovou pohotovost v ČT a ČRo vyjádřili podporu, někteří z jejich politiků se účastnili i středeční studentské akce na  odporu veřejnoprávních médií v Praze. Protest proti zákonu vyjádřili také studenti v dalších městech.Kvůli vládnímu návrhu zákona vznikne podle premiéra Andreje Babiše (ANO) pracovní skupina za účasti jeho i odborníků. Pracovat má začít po 15. květnu, kdy skončí  meziresortní připomínkové řízení. Babiš to řekl po středeční schůzce s generální ředitelem televize Hynkem Chudárkem.„Komise určitě bude posuzovat ten zákon, který bude schválen. Bude podroben právní analýze a bude to v podstatě porovnání finanční situace veřejnoprávních médií po schválení toho zákona. A to, jestli je finanční situace v souladu s tím, co říká evropské nařízení, že musí být financování předvídatelné, udržitelné, dostatečně v předstihu se musí vědět, kolik tam bude. A musí být dostatečné, aby se mohla dělat kvalitní veřejná služba,“ uvedla v Ptám se já bývalá eurokomisařka Věra Jourová. V rozhovoru také komentovala další kroky Babišova kabinetu a ostrou rétoriku vládních stran. „Vyjádření (Filipa Turka), že je potřeba deratizovat a mluvit přitom o lidech, ať už jsou to úředníci nebo někdo jiný, to samozřejmě připomíná nacistickou rétoriku. Já si nemůžu pomoct. Ale tohle je naprosto za čárou,“ řekla Jourová. „Pan premiér Babiš dělá chybu v tom, že podceňuje efekt, který to má i vůči němu. Říká: ‚Oni (SPD a Motoristé) mluví ke svým voličům.‘ Není to pravda. To jsou lidé, kteří dnes mluví za vládu České republiky a on je šéfem vlády České republik. A proto si myslím, že dělá chybu, že by se měl od toho distancovat. Jak já si ho pamatuji, tak tyhle věci mu nebyly blízké. Mně se jevilo, že pro něj útoky a ponižování lidí taky byly za čárou,“ dodala. Co čeká tuzemská veřejnoprávní média? Jakou cestou se po volbách vydá Maďarsko? A kam nás dovede bezhodnotová zahraniční politika Andreje Babiše?--Podcast Ptám se já. Rozhovory s lidmi, kteří mají vliv, odpovědnost, informace.Sledujte na Seznam Zprávách, poslouchejte na Podcasty.cz a ve všech podcastových aplikacích.Archiv všech dílů najdete tady. Své postřehy, připomínky nebo tipy nám pište prostřednictvím sociálních sítí pod hashtagem #ptamseja nebo na e-mail: audio@sz.cz.

Next round of talks between US and Iran could take place this week or early next week, according to the Iranian embassy official in Pakistan.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.Energy eases amid continued reports of further US-Iran talks.Global equities gain on positive risk tone; US banks ahead.DXY soften, Kiwi continues to outperform while JPY helped modestly by reports BoJ is to increase price forecast.Fixed benchmarks gain, heavy speaker slate ahead. Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Aleksandra Zbroja rozmawia z Ignacym Dutkiewiczem, współtwórcą magazynu „Kontakt” – pisma katolickiej lewicy, autorem książki „Pastwisko”, oraz z Janem Rybickim, reporterem, autorem tekstu opublikowanego w Dużym Formacie „Co dzieci mówią o pierwszej spowiedzi? ‘Boję się, że księdza przerażę'”. Więcej podcastów na: https://wyborcza.pl/podcast. Piszcie do nas w każdej sprawie na: listy@wyborcza.pl.

We are entering week 5 of the conflict in the Middle East and this week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Chris Jakubowski, from FX Institutional Sales, about the potential for de-escalation versus a scenario of deterioration and what that would mean for the US dollar and G10 FX. Derek and Chris also discuss the ECB and BoJ reaction functions and what lies ahead for the markets next week which culminates with the NFP release.   

Līdzīgi kā piegādes kurjeri nogādā paciņu precīzā adresē, arī medikamentu devu varētu nogādāt konkrētai šūnai, kurai tas nepieciešams - mērķterapija ir nākotnes medicīnas stūrakmens un visas cerības liktas uz to. Pētījumi mērķterapijā top arī Latvijā*. Raidījumā Zināmais nezināmajā plašāk skaidro Latvijas Universitātes Medicīnas un dzīvības zinātņu fakultātes vadošā pētniece Evita Rostoka, šīs pašas fakultātes pētniece Līga Kundrate un doktorants Matīss Bojārs. Pirms sarunas par mērķterapiju - aktualitāti medicīnā ceļojums vēsturē. Reportāža no Latvijas Nacionālā Vēstures muzeja, kurā pavisam nesen atklāta jauna ekspozīcija “Straumējot laiku” par Latvijas vēsturi dažādos laika posmos. Turpmāko mēnešu laikā iepazīsim daudzveidīgās ekspozīcijas sadaļas, šoreiz pirmais stāsts.  Laika tvērums ekspozīcijā ir iespaidīgs - no vissenākajiem laikiem līdz mūsdienām, aptverot 12 500 gadu, sniegts skatījums uz Latvijas vēsturi un tās iedzīvotājiem. Ekspozīcijai atlasīti vairāk nekā 1500 vēsturisku priekšmetu no muzeja bagātīgā krājuma, tas viss papildināts ar digitālu saturu un apvienots īpašā dizainā. Šī ir pirmā ekspozīcija pēc muzeja atgriešanās Rīgas pilī, un soli pa solim ar to iepazīstināsim arī raidījumā. Izstāstīt vairāk nekā 12 tūkstošus gadu vienā plūdumā, protams, nav iespējams, un “Straumējot laiku” ietver deviņas tematiskās sadaļas. Par jaunās ekspozīcijas tapšanu un tās sadaļu “Radošie cilvēki” stāsta Latvijas Nacionālā vēstures muzeja direktors Toms Ķikuts, muzeja Arheoloģijas departamenta pētniece Irita Žeiere un muzeja Arheoloģijas departamenta pētniece Baiba Dumpe. -- * Projektu finansē FLPP projekts (LZP-2024/1-0206), Latvijas Universitātes fonds (Nr. 2313) un Eiropas Reģionālās attīstības fonds (Nr. 1.1.1.8/1/24/I/003).

Daniel Lam looks into the recent ECB and BOJ meetings, the implications of the elevated energy prices on their stance, and what it means for investors.Speaker: - Daniel Lam, Head, Cross-Asset Derivative Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

Premiérovo satori, nebo změna korektního vztahu? Když je svět na houpačce, musí být občanská společnost na nohou. Lídrům zemí EU se nepovedlo přesvědčit Orbána, aby umožnil finanční pomoc Ukrajině. Bojíte se o ropu? Bojte se o vodu. Putin že je válečný zločinec? Šup s tebou do blázince! Abychom to nepřepískli

US President Trump said Israel violently lashed out at Iran's major facility and that the US did not know about the attack, while he said there will be no more attacks by Israel on South Pars.US President Trump said the US will retaliate by massively blowing up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field if Qatar's LNG is attacked again.The Fed left rates on hold as expected in an 11-1 vote split, while dot plots were largely unchanged, with little reaction seen.Fed Chair Powell noted how the Fed will not look through energy-induced inflation lightly and stated that rate hikes in the future were discussed, but caveated that it is not the base case for the vast majority.BoJ kept its short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected, with the decision made by an 8-1 vote as Takata dissented and voted for a 25bps hike.APAC stocks declined as the region took its cue from the losses stateside; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.7%.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs/Average Earnings (Jan), US Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/14), Atlanta Fed GDP, New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb), Riksbank, SNB, BoE & ECB, Policy Announcements. Speakers include BoJ's Ueda, SNB's Schlegel, Riksbank's Thedeen & ECB's Lagarde. Supply from Spain, France & US. Earnings from FedEx & Alibaba.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran's armed forces said Iran's retaliation against attacks on its energy infrastructure is not yet complete, SNN reported; any repeat of such attacks will lead to a far stronger retaliation against the enemy, enemy infrastructure and that of their allies.US President Trump said Israel violently lashed out at Iran's major facility and that the US did not know about the attack, while he said there will be no more attacks by Israel on South Pars; added that the US will retaliate by massively blowing up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field if Qatar's LNG is attacked again.FX mixed amid the central bank bonanza; SNB, Riksbank and BoJ all left rates unchanged, as expected, while the BoE and ECB await. Crude surges as attacks in the Persian Gulf threaten long-term damage to major energy facilities.European equities suffer as Energy continues to surge; US equity futures follow suit, Micron slips after increasing capex plans.Fixed income weighed on energy upside and hawkish Chair Powell.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/14), Atlanta Fed GDP, New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb), BoE & ECB Policy Announcements. Speakers include ECB's Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from FedEx.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Today, a look at the market continuing to radiate confidence that things will turn out well despite the lack of real progress or any new clarity emerging from the war in Iran or Hormuz Strait. The market enthusiasm for memory makers remains hot and key player in that space Micron is reporting after the US close today. We also look at the seven of the G10 central banks up today and tomorrow, with BoJ and ECB particularly in focus for their guidance tomorrow, but with the FOMC up later today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

En Capital Intereconomía repasamos las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa. En Asia, el Kospi lidera las subidas en una jornada marcada por el inicio de la reunión del Banco de Japón (BoJ). En Estados Unidos, destacan los avances del sector energético y las aerolíneas, mientras el mercado permanece a la espera de la decisión de la Reserva Federal. En Europa, se anticipa una apertura al alza también condicionada por las decisiones de los bancos centrales. En el primer análisis de la mañana hablamos con Gustavo Martínez, gestor patrimonial y experto en bolsa, sobre la situación de los mercados en un contexto de elevada incertidumbre. Analizamos cómo Jerome Powell se encuentra en una encrucijada, con la guerra presionando tanto la inflación como el crecimiento económico. También abordamos qué esperar de bonos, oro y dólar a corto plazo y las señales de alerta en el mercado ante una posible crisis en el crédito privado. A continuación, repasamos las principales noticias en el resumen de la prensa económica nacional e internacional. En el análisis internacional contamos con Rafael Calduch, catedrático emérito de Relaciones Internacionales de la Universidad Camilo José Cela, para abordar la evolución del conflicto en Oriente Medio. Analizamos el golpe de Israel a la cúpula iraní, la confirmación por parte de Teherán de la muerte de Alí Larijani, considerado líder “de facto” de la República Islámica, y el pulso que mantiene Donald Trump con Cuba en un contexto de creciente tensión global.

Daniel Lam discusses the key considerations and likely outcomes of the Fed, ECB and BoJ meetings this week – and their implications for investors.Speaker: - Daniel Lam, Head, Cross-Asset Derivative Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

1. Ficovi sa nepodarilo ovládnuť všetko. 2. Boj o Budapešť. 3. V Hlase všetko po starom.

Bojíte se, kam míří svět s umělou inteligencí? Nejste sami – průzkumy ukazují, že 60 % mladých lidí si myslí, že lidstvo směřuje do záhuby. A já to občas taky cítím.Proto jsem si pozval dva výjimečné hosty: Václava Dejčmara – investora, filantropa a filozofa, který věří v psychedelika, podmíněný příjem i evropský AI Manhattan. A Petra Ludviga – autora Konce prokrastinace a nové knihy Od chaosu ke smyslu, který AI sleduje zblízka a nemá o jejích rizicích iluze.Bavili jsme se o tom, co nás čeká – AGI, superinteligence, humanoidní roboti, konec práce. Ale hlavně o tom, co s tím může dělat každý z nás teď.V tomhle díle uslyšíte:→ Proč i "pozitivní" scénář s AI může skončit koncem lidstva→ Co znamená být architektem místo obětí→ Podmíněný základní příjem – ale s podmínkou vzdělání→ Proč Evropa měla koupit Anthropic (a jak by to změnilo hru)→ Jak kultivovat vnitřní svět, když vnější svět hoří→ Buddha 2.0, Star Trek, Duna a lehkost bytíTohle povídání mě osobně naplnilo dost pozitivní energií – a doufám, že stejně zapůsobí i na vás.

1. Ani Danko sa už na to nemôže pozerať. 2. Boj za ruských oligarchov nateraz ustal. 3. Slovensko zažilo v Prahe fantastický úspech.

We explore Japan's inflation regime shift, JGB volatility and BoJ normalisation — plus what it means for the yen, the dollar and global rates.

Boj o tankery, krize v Perském zálivu. Bitva o Írán se přenesla na moře a zasáhla pupek světového obchodu s ropou. Kdo má navrch? A kam až se vyšplhají ceny? Téma pro Michaela Romancova, politického geografa z Fakulty sociálních věd Univerzity Karlovy a autora podcastu Romancov a spol. Ptá se Matěj Skalický.Všechny díly podcastu Vinohradská 12 můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

Muniek Staszczyk jest liderem zespołu T.Love, niedawno razem z Piotrem Żyłką napisał swoją biografię "Chłopaki (nie) płaczą". Rozmawiamy szczerze o Bogu, zdradach, alkoholu i przeszłości Muńka Staszczyka. Co to znaczy 'Boję się śmieci"? Muniek Staszczyk [Pola, Pochodnia, Warszawa] - to wywiad, w którym rozlicza się ze swoją przeszłością, można powiedzieć, że to Muniek jakiego nie znacie i nie znaliście do tej pory. Zapraszam. Karol Paciorek / Imponderabilia.Sprawdź suplementy od Nikalab i użyj kodu KAROL by otrzymać rabat. https://nikalab.pl/karol[współpraca reklamowa]https://www.instagram.com/karolpaciorek/

VŠECHNY EPIZODY V PLNÉ DÉLCE NAJDETE NA HEROHERO.CO/STUDION „Na síti X mě označují za perverzní dominu českého veřejného prostoru nebo depilátorku delfínů. Píšou to chlapi, podle kterých jsem moc dominantní a moje profese je zbytečná. Bojí se mě určitý typ mužů, takoví slabší, je mi jich líto. Síť X je Sama doma pro muže, ať si to tam ventilují,“ směje se ve Studiu N designérka Veronika Rút, která v Česku bojuje s vizuálním smogem a radí městům, jak vytvořit přívětivý veřejný prostor. Jedním z témat, které vnáší do společenské debaty, je otázka výdejních boxů, které zaplavily české ulice. Vytvořila proto nezávislou odbornou iniciativu, která připravila pravidla, jak s plechovými skříněmi nakládat. „Některé firmy se urazily a najaly si falešného novináře, aby mě zdiskreditoval,“ popisuje v rozhovoru. „Jsme východní Evropa, tohle je totiž nižší kultura podnikání, kterou na Západě nevidíme. Tam firmy vědí, že už tam to město stojí osm set let a dalších osm set let tam stát bude, a tak je lepší se domluvit. U nás se to s vidinou krátkozrakého aktuálního zisku snaží firmy zpomalit, aby se například nevydávaly tržní řády,“ říká designérka. Kvalita veřejného prostoru podle ní přitom přímo souvisí s tím, koho lidé volí. „Nejvíc voličů SPD bydlí u nadúrovňových křižovatek, protože je tam špatná dostupnost obchodů. Když jste ve vykořeněném místě, které nikomu nepatří a máte strašně daleko základní věci, tak snadněji propadnete extremismu. Není tam prostor k setkávání, a tak si nevybudujete v okolí vztahy. Pokud chceme být odolnou demokracií a mít silnou společnost s kvalitními vztahy, musíme mít prostor, kde se budeme potkávat s jinými názory,“ tvrdí. Podchody, nadchody a nadúrovňové křižovatky považuje za klíčové chyby 20. století. „Dneska už víme, že lidi mají chodit po povrchu, protože to nejsou krysy. Frustrace a demotivace pramení ze zanedbaných prvků ve veřejném prostoru. Člověk má potom pocit, že nic nemá smysl – když jdete kolem oprýskaných zábradlí a musíte je neustále obcházet dokola, má to katastrofální dopady, vede to totiž v nízkou sebeúctu a nároky. Když potom přistane u kašny výdejní box, je vám to jedno,“ doplňuje Veronika Rút. Která města jsou v naší zemi nejošklivější? A která naopak pracují s veřejným prostorem nejlépe? Kde se vzal v Česku pocit, že auta mají mít přednost před vším ostatním? Proč se politici bojí měnit města k lepšímu? A jak může každý z nás bojovat s vizuálním smogem? Podívejte se na celý rozhovor na herohero.co/studion

US equity futures are softer with S&P slightly down. Bonds mixed. US 10-year steady at 4%. US dollar flat, yen stronger on hawkish BOJ comments, yuan also strengthened sharply following lower fixing point this morning by the PBOC. Crude futures continued to trade in a tight range. Base metals lower, precious metals also giving up some ground. Cryptocurrencies mixed. Oil is up. Early focus is on earnings from Nvidia, which delivered widely expected beat and raise. Muted response to earnings. Flagged upside to $500B Blackwell and Rubin revenue pipeline, which street was expecting. CEO Huang struck usual bullish tone, noting compute demand rising exponentially. Meanwhile, European markets are taking influence from heavy earnings calendar.Companied Mentioned: LSI Industries, Pacific West Bancorp, Shell Plc

The AI disruption trade finally saw some consolidation yesterday, ironically the day after a viral report on profound AI disruption sweeping over the market. Elsewhere, we have Meta going big on its commitment to AMD and Nvidia and key software-as-a-service names reporting today after the close. In FX, the JPY is tumbling as dovish BoJ appointments have the market questioning whether Japan's PM Takaichi has any commitment to corral JPY weakness, which may have also provided the fresh lift in gold and silver. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Proč by měli ministři Babišovy vlády jezdit spíš do Varšavy než do Bratislavy. Válka mezi Slovenskem, Maďarskem a Ukrajinou. Trump narazil u Nejvyššího soudu. Pozdě, ale přece. Boj o české porodnictví nekončí. Kancléř Merz přepnul do merkelovsky uhlazeného režimu.

Silver and Gold – Still Going. Big week for earnings. Fed decision on Wednesday. Nat Gas price exploding higher. US Dollar drops hard over past few days. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - What we learned from Davos - President Miyagi - tariffs on, tariffs off - January: stocks are trying to finish with gains - Small-caps flying - S&P  500: All-time highs going into earnings Markets - Silver and Gold - Still Going - Big week for earnings - Fed decision on Wednesday - Nat Gas price exploding - US Dollar drops hard over past few days Can't Keep Track Anymore -Trump has announced he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports to 25% after accusing Seoul of "not living up" to a trade deal reached last year. - In a post on social media, Trump said he would increase levies on South Korea from 15% across a range of products including automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals and "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS". - South Korea is planning on voting on the "agreement" with the US in February - KOSPI hits all-time high after being down 1% on the news - S. Korea President re-affirms their commitments Davos - 2026 - What we learned - Not much - Same bifurcated view of the world - Trump backed off the Greenland threats - Framework of a "deal" / "plan" - So, no tariffs - (Going to get a boy who cried wolf ....) Gold and Silver - Off to the races - Silver was up again in a big way Monday. Fell back down to earth (up 5% from up 15% earlier in the day - Hovering around $110 - that is impressive - parabolic move - GOLD! - Proving itself as a USD hedge and safety trade (Bitcoin in the dust) - Gold above $5,000 per ounce - - Plenty of reports that central banks are buying up| - USD weakness Economy - Still Strong - The US economy expanded in the third quarter by slightly more than initially reported, supported by stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories. - Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. - Consumer spending advanced at a 3.5% annualized pace last quarter, reflecting the fastest pace of outlays for services in three years, while spending on goods also accelerated from the previous quarter. Amazon - Trimming.... 30,000 jobs is plan - First half of that was in October and now trhery are laying off the remainder - CEO Jassey says that it is not financial of AI issues ---- Again - why so important to state that and make that a focal point? - Layoffs amount to 10% of the corporate workforce - Company still has 1.5 million employees Comeback? - Spirit Airlines is in talks with investment firm Castlelake for a potential takeover of the discount airline, CNBC has learned. - Remember, all started when Jetblue deal was blocked - Frontier tried - Spirit tried a few times to get head above water - nothing worked Booz Cancelled - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canceled department contracts with the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, whose employee leaked President Donald Trump's tax records to The New York Times. - The department noted that between 2018 and 2020, Booz Allen employee Charles Edward Littlejohn “stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers.” - Booz Allen Hamilton's stock price dropped by more than 10% on the heels of the Treasury Department's announcement. - Why does Booz have tax records in the first place? - Stock down 50% since end of 2024 Private Credit - BlackRock TCP Capital shares lower by 13% after it disclosed Friday night that net asset value declined approximately 19.0%; other private credit stocks falling in sympathy - The Company's net asset value per share as of December 31, 2025 to be between approximately $7.05 and $7.09, an anticipated decline of approximately 19.0% during the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to a net asset value per share of $8.71 as of September 30, 2025. - This decline is primarily driven by issuer-specific developments during the quarter. - The Company's net investment income per share to be between approximately $0.24 and $0.26 for the three months ended December 31, 2025. - Decliners: TCPC -13.40% OWL -3.07% ARES -3.30% KKR -2.08% BAM -0.41% CG -0.33% Zoom Communications - Valuation of Anthropic stake - The news is driving shares higher as analysts suggest ZM's $51 mln stake could now be worth between $2-$4 bln based on Anthropic's rumored $350 bln valuation, effectively acting as a "hidden gem" on its balance sheet. - From a fundamental perspective, the company's performance has also significantly improved, evidenced by its Q3 beat-and-raise report in late November where revenue rose 4.4% yr/yr to $1.23 bln. - This stronger financial performance is being driven by robust growth in the Enterprise segment, the rapid adoption of AI Companion features, and the scaling of adjacent growth businesses like Zoom Contact Center and Workvivo. - Consequently, the combination of high-margin operational rigor -- highlighted by a 41.2% non-GAAP operating margin -- and the massive unrealized gains from its AI investments has shifted investor sentiment firmly back toward growth. UNH and Health Stocks - DOWN 20% today - The administration's proposal (via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS) for Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates to rise by only 0.09% in 2027. This was far below Wall Street expectations of 4-6% (or higher), following a more generous ~5% increase for 2026. - The near-flat rate aims to improve payment accuracy, curb overbilling practices, and protect taxpayers, according to CMS statements, but it sparked widespread concerns about squeezed insurer margins, potential benefit cuts for seniors, reduced plan offerings, or market exits. - UnitedHealth has significant exposure to Medicare Advantage (roughly 30% of national enrollment), making it particularly vulnerable. The proposal, announced late Monday (January 26), led to a broader sell-off in health insurers: - - Humana (HUM) plunged over 20-21%. - - CVS Health (CVS) and Elevance Health (ELV) each dropped around 13-14%. Tech Earnings Microsoft (MSFT) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations:  Earnings per share (EPS): about $3.86 and Revenue: about $80 billion - Growth: high teens year over year revenue growth - Investors are focused on Azure and broader cloud growth, particularly how much of that growth is coming from AI related demand. Microsoft has built a reputation for consistent execution, which also means expectations are high. The critical issues will be cloud growth sustainability, margin stability, and how aggressively management plans to keep spending on AI infrastructure. Meta Platforms (META) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations:  EPS: about $8.15–$8.20 and Revenue: about $58–$59 billion - Growth: roughly 20–21% year over year revenue growth - Advertising remains the core driver, with AI driven ad targeting continuing to improve returns for advertisers. While topline growth expectations remain strong, investors are closely watching expense growth. The biggest question is whether rising AI and infrastructure spending can be managed without eroding margins or spooking investors, as Meta works through the next phase of its AI strategy. Tesla (TSLA) Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close) - Wall Street Expectations:  EPS (non GAAP): about $0.40–$0.45 and Revenue: about $24.5–$25 billion - Trend: earnings expected to be sharply lower than a year ago - Tesla enters earnings with the weakest expectations among the major tech names this week. Vehicle deliveries declined year over year, and automotive margins remain under pressure. While the energy and services segments continue to grow, they are not yet large enough to offset slowing EV demand. - Investors will be far more focused on forward guidance than on the quarter itself—particularly updates on Full Self Driving, robotaxis, and the broader AI roadmap. Apple (AAPL) Reports: Thursday, January 29 (After Market Close) Wall Street Expectations -  EPS: about $2.65–$2.67 and Revenue: about $138 billion Growth: approximately 11–12% year over year revenue growth - This is Apple's most important quarter of the year. Expectations call for record revenue driven by the iPhone 17 cycle and continued Services growth. The focus will be on margins, China demand, and forward guidance—particularly how higher costs (memory prices and tariffs) may impact profitability. Apple typically beats expectations, but the stock reaction will hinge on what management says about growth beyond this quarter. Company Ticker Report Date Est. EPS Key Focus Area Microsoft MSFT Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $3.92 Azure AI revenue growth & CapEx spending Meta Platforms META Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $8.17 Ad monetization of AI & 2026 CapEx guidance Tesla TSLA Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $0.45 Full Self-Driving (FSD) & Robotaxi updates Apple AAPL Thu, Jan 29 (AMC) Varies iPhone 17 demand & Apple Intelligence rollout ServiceNow NOW Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $0.88 Enterprise AI software adoption rates IBM IBM Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) $4.28 Hybrid cloud and watsonx performance *AMC = After Market Close; EPS = Earnings Per Share (Consensus Estimates) Boeing - The company's airplane deliveries last year were the highest since 2018, helping drive revenue. Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024 and topping analysts' expectations. Cash flow of $400 million was roughly double what Wall Street was expecting. - Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024. The airplane manufacturer delivered 600 airplanes last year, up from 348 a year earlier. Another MoonShot - U.S. natural gas prices surged over 17% on Monday morning, climbing above $6 for the first time since late 2022. - It comes as Winter Storm Fern leaves hundreds of thousands without power and forces mass flight cancellations. - The National Weather Service has forecast wind chills as low as -50 degrees Fahrenheit (-45.56 degrees Celsius) across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. this week. -Up 68% YTD - Nat gas is used in a whole lot of things - electrical grid 43% is fueled by Nat Gas Government - Not Again! - Seems like Dems are threatening a shutdown again - A partial U.S. government shutdown is set to begin on Friday, January 30, 2026. - The Senate is expected to vote on a funding package to avert this shutdown, with delays from a winter storm pushing initial votes to at least January 27, 2026 - The issue is being exacerbated with the ICE / Minnesota issues This is precious - Ex-finance minister Noda currently co-heads largest opposition party - He says that Japan unlikely to get international consent for intervention - Yen, bond selloff requires Japan to be in crisis mode, he says - Government must vow to restore fiscal discipline to end yen fall, Noda says - Japan must create environment allowing for steady BOJ rate hikes, he says - THIS shows us all that the whole thing with these guys/gals is all political. - NEVER EVER if he was in the role would he say anything like this.       Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.