Podcasts about Boj

Things are getting weird – looks like someone is panicking. The Dumber side of finance – let’s dig in. A big week ahead – major earnings could move markets. – Gold, Bitcoin moving on a lower USD. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - Things are getting weird - looks like someone is panicking - The Dumber side of finance - let's dig in (5 top items) - Cold War and Hot War - Canada, China and Iran - Economic "D" day - no one cares - Saying goodbye to Dolly Parton Markets - Gold, Bitcoin moving on a lower USD - Oil starting to settle - Big Week - NVDA earnings on tap - all eyes! STUPID IS WHAT STUPID DOES - A DHU One-Time Series On The Dumber Side of Finance 1) LOWER BEEF PRICES - Trump plans temporary tariff relief for certain ground-beef imports as U.S. beef prices remain near record highs. - The plan would allow up to 300,000 metric tons of discounted imported ground beef over roughly 90 days. - Supposedly this will reduce the prices for consumers - Ranchers and several farm-state Republicans are pushing back, arguing cheaper imports could hurt domestic producers. ---- Question: Tariff reduction is going to reduce prices for consumers? Didn't someone say that tariffs are paid by the companies and exporting countries??? 2) IRAN SANCTIONS - BIG THREAT, LIMITED IMMEDIATE ACTION - Treasury warned countries doing business with Iran that they could face secondary sanctions, calling it an "economic D-Day." - New sanctions hit about 60 individuals, companies and vessels, but major Chinese financial institutions were not targeted. - China remains the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, making Chinese banks the potential pressure point. - Treasury says sanctions could expand into gold, digital assets, aviation, shipping and other sectors. 3) TREASURY TRIES TO TAME LONG-TERM YIELDS - Treasury will at least double the maximum size of certain long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation. - The announcement briefly knocked nearly 10 basis points off the 30-year Treasury yield. - Critics say this treats the symptom rather than the cause - huge deficits, heavy issuance and persistent inflation risk. ------Bessent had to come out on Friday to say "at least" $4B - as bind yields moved back up -------Maybe there is a concern over the $40TRILLION debt we have amassed as a country? 4) SOMEONE GOT LONG BONDS AT THE RIGHT TIME - TLT took in roughly $529 million of net inflows on August 18, one day before Treasury's surprise bond-buyback announcement. - The next day Bessent doubled planned buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasurys, immediately pushing long yields lower. - TLT jumped about 1.7% on the announcement. - No public evidence identifies a single buyer - but the timing of the unusually large inflow is certainly worth noting. 5) DOLLAR GETS HIT BY THE BOND RESCUE - The dollar weakened as investors questioned Treasury's expanded bond-buyback strategy. - The concern is that suppressing yields without fixing fiscal problems simply transfers pressure from bonds to the currency. - The 30-year yield has remained elevated despite Treasury intervention. - Bitcoin rallied as investors looked toward alternatives to traditional fiat assets. - PEOPLE: This is NOT Quantitative Easing - Just a move to buy longer dated and issue more short dated WALMART FLASHES A CONSUMER WARNING - Walmart U.S. comparable sales grew just 2.6%, its slowest pace in roughly six years and below expectations. - Shares dropped sharply after the report. - E-commerce remained strong, while store traffic and discretionary spending showed more weakness. - Walmart raised full-year guidance but gave a softer-than-expected third-quarter outlook. - As America's biggest retailer, Walmart's slowdown is an important read on the broader consumer. VENEZUELA HAS OIL - BUT CAN'T SHIP IT FAST ENOUGH - Tankers are waiting as long as 30 days to load Venezuelan crude because of aging ports, outages and equipment failures. - Venezuela has struggled to push exports much higher despite rising production and strong demand. - The Jose terminal handles about 70% of exports and has become a major bottleneck. - Venezuela's ports may impose a physical ceiling on production growth until infrastructure is upgraded. JANE STREET'S $15 BILLION AI HIT - Jane Street reportedly lost about $15 billion in July as AI and technology positions moved sharply against the firm. - A major source of the damage was exposure to concentrated AI trades that were forced to unwind. - Jane Street posted its first negative month of trading revenue since 2016. - As a reminder: this episode highlights how quickly crowded AI trades can overwhelm even sophisticated risk-management systems. LEAVITT LEAVES THE WHITE HOUSE - Karoline Leavitt resigned as White House press secretary after returning from maternity leave. - Trump said she would become a top outside adviser and prominent Republican voice heading into the midterms. - Looking fior a kinder and gentler replacement? HA! probably not OFF THE HIGHS NVDA - 9% off high AMD - 19% off high AVGO - 23% off high MU - 23% off high TSM - 13% off high MRVL - 28% off high INTC - 35% off high NVIDIA - THE MARKET'S NEXT STRESS TEST - Nvidia reports Wednesday - now basically a referendum on the entire AI trade. - Blackwell demand and hyperscaler spending are the key tells. - A strong guide could quickly reset tech sentiment. - A miss would raise the uncomfortable question: how much AI optimism is already priced in? - Revenue expected around $92.1 billion, up roughly 97% year over year. - Adjusted EPS expected around $2.09, nearly double last year. - Data Center revenue expected around $85.7 billion - still the main engine. - Biggest watch items: Blackwell demand, Vera Rubin timing, China sales and hyperscaler capex. - Options imply roughly a 5%-6% move after earnings. - Discussion .... NVIDIA - AI SERVERS GETTING EVEN MORE EXPENSIVE - Major Nvidia customers have reportedly been warned that AI server prices could rise more than 15% beginning early next year. - Higher memory costs are the main driver, affecting Grace Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin systems. - Nvidia is effectively passing higher component costs through despite gross margins around 75%. - ALWAYS INTERESTING THESE ANNOUNCEMENTS SO CLOSE TO EARNINGS - HMMMM CANADA-U.S. TRADE FIGHT GETS WORSE - Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. goods after Washington imposed new 50% tariffs on Canadian imports. - Canada's tariffs range from 15% to 50% across roughly 700 products and begin September 8. - Canada also announced a C$7.5 billion support package for affected businesses and workers. - Another escalation that could hit autos, manufacturing costs and cross-border supply chains. HOUSING - BUYERS KEEP DISAPPEARING - July new-home sales plunged 10.5% to a 607,000 annual rate, the weakest since January. - Median new-home price fell to $393,800, the lowest in four years. - Mortgage rates are still around 6.8%, keeping affordability under pressure. - Only 5.2% of consumers said they expect to buy a home in the next six months - the sharpest drop in more than five years. JACKSON HOLE - WARSH GETS THE MICROPHONE - Kevin Warsh speaks next week at Jackson Hole. - Markets want to know whether sticky inflation, oil and tariffs are enough to keep the Fed in tightening mode. - Long yields are already doing some of the Fed's work. - One sentence could move bonds, the dollar and stocks. - Friday, August 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET. --- BUT - Didn't Warsh say less communication is more? They can't keep put of the spotlight. PCE - THE FED'S FAVORITE INFLATION READ - "The Fed's preferred gauge/measure of inflation" - July PCE lands next week. - Watch for tariff, energy and goods inflation creeping back into the numbers. - A hot print revives hike fears. - A soft print gives risk assets some breathing room - especially with long yields already elevated. THE CONSUMER VS. THE AI BOOM - MORE EARNINGS COMING - Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Marvell give another read on corporate AI spending. - Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Best Buy and Ulta test the other side of the economy. - The setup is getting interesting: companies are still spending aggressively on AI while consumers look increasingly selective. - If that gap widens, it could become one of the bigger market themes into the fall. AROUND THE WORLD EUROPE - QUIETLY GETTING INTERESTING - European stocks slipped this week, but money has started flowing back into the region. - Euro-zone business activity is growing at its fastest pace this year, while Q2 earnings growth for STOXX 600 companies is running surprisingly strong. - CONCEPT: Europe may be turning into the anti-U.S. trade - less AI concentration, cheaper valuations, but more sensitivity to energy. JAPAN - BETTER DATA, WORSE MARKET - Japan's Nikkei lost about 4% this week even as the economic data improved. - August manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.1, with new orders rising at the fastest pace since 2018. - Semiconductors and AI-related demand are helping drive the factory rebound. - Stronger growth also keeps the BOJ rate-hike discussion alive - good economy, potentially tougher market. BIG PHARMA - CHINA'S WEIGHT-LOSS GOLD RUSH - Lilly, Novo Nordisk and others are aggressively targeting China's obesity market, where obesity rates are projected to top 65% by 2030. - China bans direct prescription-drug advertising, so companies are using subway ads, gyms, influencers and "disease awareness" campaigns instead. - China's GLP-1 market could reach roughly 30 billion yuan over the next 5-7 years. - Interesting regulatory gray area: education campaigns that look a lot like drug advertising without actually naming the drug. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

25/8 Buyback sui Treasury, la prima di Warsh a Jackson Hole, nuovi dazi (Canada e Cina) e sanzioni (Iran). La settimana del test sulla credibilità americana. Cosa significa per i vostri portafogli? Debasement Trade: dollaro in recupero, stabili Treasury e oro con Bitcoin sopra 80mila. Futures in verde dopo il sell-off di semiconduttori e memory della vigilia. Petrolio stabile dopo “warning” su sanzioni secondarie su digital asset, Tech, oro, aviazione e shipping. Il caso cinese. Nvidia prepara i conti e mette in produzione i chip Groq, Trump investe in Spacex, Anthropic prepara l'Ipo ma l'America rifiuta i datacenter. Sec: mandato di comparizione a banche Wall Street per caso Situational Awareness. ***Questo episodio è offerto da ⁠Scalable Capital ⁠Apri un conto con Scalable Capital e inizia a ricevere il 2,5% di interessi* sui tuoi risparmi:  https://it.scalable.capital/broker-online?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=qualityclick&utm_campaign=broker&c_id=QC59486e7f67706c777b517d435049607362766c747c5aS7541p&utm_term=983 Messaggio pubblicitario. Tasso lordo annuo variabile sulla liquidità depositata nel conto deposito non vincolato, composto da tasso base collegato al Tasso di Deposito BCE e tasso bonus discrezionale. Liquidità allocata presso banche partner e fondi monetari riconosciuti. Foglio informativo e condizioni su scalable.capital. Investire comporta dei rischi*** Asia prudente, Kospi giù con Samsung e Sk Hynix. Boj, verso altro rialzo. PPI sotto attese. In Cina recupera Alibaba, debacle Unitree. Europa: più mementum vs. Usa? Oggi dati su commercio e Ifo. Focus su auto e dazi al Canada. Bpm oggi cda straordinario su Ops Mps. Giorgetti incontra rappresentanti Siena. ISS a sostegno di Intesa, oggi si riunisce la Consob sotto Stazi. Unicredit, Weidmann apre a Orcel.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A.M. Edition for Aug. 21. WSJ's Alex Frangos explains the combination of factors that fueled a multi-day bond selloff and what to watch for in the weeks to come. Plus, the Trump administration targets the Bar Association's ability to accredit law schools. And James Rundle from the Dow Jones Risk Journal podcast looks at a White House initiative that could see private companies join the fight against foreign criminal groups. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Brian Szytel reviews a rotation-heavy market day with the Dow up 120 points, the S&P 500 up about 0.25%, and the Nasdaq slightly higher, as equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted amid big moves in pharma and some late earnings from tech/AI. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 7 bps to about 4.64%, following remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about shifting issuance toward the short end and using it to buy back some long-end debt; while the $20B buyback is small versus the $5T in 20–30 year Treasuries, the signal suggests an effort to lower long-term rates, potentially at odds with a Fed under Warsh aiming to let markets tighten or loosen. He also explains Japan's debt dynamics: while gross debt/GDP is ~240%, netting BOJ holdings and government assets brings it closer to ~80%, though higher JGB rates could raise debt-service costs and pressure the yen and BOJ policy. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:21 Market Close Recap 00:56 Treasury Buyback Shock 01:58 Fed Versus Treasury 03:46 Japan Debt Question 04:07 Net Debt Breakdown 05:06 Rates Yen and BOJ 06:11 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Boj o rozpočet na příští rok začíná. Ministryně financí Alena Schillerová (ANO) dnes jedná s dalšími ministry o požadavcích pro jejich rezorty. Očekávanou výši schodku zatím neupřesnila. O kolik překoná ten letošní? Hostem Ptám se já byl ekonom, člen Národní rozpočtové rady Petr Musil. Ministryně financí Alena Schillerová (ANO) se chce se šéfy dalších rezortů bavit o výdajích a úsporách na příští rok. Předpokládá přitom, že ministři přijdou s vyššími požadavky, než bude možné uspokojit. Schillerová očekává i debatu o tom, kolik peněz dávají jednotlivá ministerstva neziskovému sektoru. Podle premiéra Andreje Babiše (ANO) bude součástí vyjednávání také otázka růstu platů státních zaměstnanců nebo možnost mimořádné valorizace důchodů. Oba se už dříve shodli, že hlavními prioritami rozpočtu by ale měly být investice do dopravní infrastruktury a do zdravotnictví. Očekávanou výši schodku ministryně financí zatím neupřesnila, návrh státního rozpočtu předloží vládě do konce srpna. Premiér už v červenci řekl, že by schodek rozpočtu pro příští rok měl být významně pod 400 miliard korun. To zkritizovala opozice, podle které bude pokračovat růst deficitů na úkor budoucnosti. Dvacítka ekonomů zároveň v otevřeném dopise poslancům varovala před rozvolňováním rozpočtových pravidel. Letos stát plánuje schodek 310 miliard korun. Přes 400 miliard se dostal pouze za covidové pandemie v roce 2021, kdy dosáhl 419,7 miliardy korun. Mezi 300 a 400 miliardami byl deficit zatím pouze v letech 2020 a 2022. Vláda Andreje Babiše přitom deklarovala, že bude pracovat na postupném snižováním deficitu a zlepšování hospodaření státu. Dosavadní plán vývoje veřejných financí připravený předchozím kabinetem Petra Fialy (ODS) ale ministryně financí označila za past. Schválila proto nový plán, který počítá s postupnou konsolidací až od roku 2028. „Důležitý je konec fiskálně-strukturálního plánu, a to je v roce 2030. Což znamená po dalších sněmovních volbách. Takže možná, že tam bude nějaká past pro příští vládu,“upozornil v Ptám se já člen Národní rozpočtové rady Petr Musil. „Možná, že si tu past takto budeme posouvat, až do ní spadneme ale všichni. Protože jestli s veřejnými financemi nic neuděláme, tak ve finále na to fakt doplatíme, doplatí na to ti ekonomicky a sociálně nejslabší.“ Jsou všechny plánované výdaje skutečně nutné? A máme vládě věřit, že od roku 2028 začne rozpočtové schodky snižovat? -- Podcast Ptám se já. Rozhovory s lidmi, kteří mají vliv, odpovědnost, informace. Sledujte na Seznam Zprávách, poslouchejte na Podcasty.cz a ve všech podcastových aplikacích. Archiv všech dílů najdete tady. Své postřehy, připomínky nebo tipy nám pište prostřednictvím sociálních sítí pod hashtagem #ptamseja nebo na e-mail: audio@sz.cz.

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Checkout The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/about/ Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Peter Boockvar, CIO at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners, to unpack recent inflation data and why yields remain resilient, with the curve steepening as the two-year dips while the 10-year holds around 4.65%. Boockvar argues the Fed must weigh PPI alongside CPI, noting persistent producer pressures and limited pass-through that squeezes margins and hiring, contributing to weak consumer confidence and “running to stand still” wages. They discuss why the S&P 500 continues to levitate, attributing much of earnings and market leadership to massive AI CapEx spending and its spillovers into financials. The conversation previews key retail earnings (Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, TJ Maxx, Walmart) and highlights strong energy stocks amid high gasoline prices and inventory drawdown risks. They also debate U.S.-China AI competition, pressure on OpenAI/Anthropic business models, and Japan's yen intervention, rising odds of a BOJ rate hike, and potential repatriation flows. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Records are being broken, currencies are wobbling, and everyone's arguing about AI — but which signals actually matter? On this week's Market Focus Weekly, Howie Lim presses Pictet's Arun Sai on the Fed's next move, whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ) can save the yen, and why AI's boom is splitting into winners and losers. From Seoul's wild swings to oil's war premium, Arun cuts through the noise with the calls that count. Listen now. Highlights: 01:11 "Boring" CPI print is bullish for bonds 03:10 BOJ's credibility on the line as the yen slides 05:57 AI capex enters its "single stock dispersion" phase 09:34 Broader structural cooling for South-east Asia (SEA) 15:18 Is oil's war premium here to stay? --- Send us your questions, thoughts, story ideas, and feedback to btpodcasts@sph.com.sg. --- Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg) With Arun Sai, senior multi asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: Howie Lim & Chai Pei Chieh A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media --- Follow Market Focus Weekly podcasts every Friday: Channel: bt.sg/btmktfocus Amazon: bt.sg/mfam Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/mfap Spotify: bt.sg/mfsp YouTube Music: bt.sg/mfyt Website: bt.sg/mktfocus Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks BT Correspondents at: bt.sg/btcobt BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/podcasts BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Pakistan's key mediator has held a second meeting with Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi and is seeking to extend the 60-day truce, according to an informed source cited by Al Arabiya.Strait of Hormuz authority rejected US claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV.Crude futures initially declined but clambered off worst levels, with price action indecisive amid the absence of any major geopolitical updates overnight.USD/JPY saw a bout of mild pressure late in the session after Bloomberg sources said that the Takaichi government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike.APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region took its cue from the mild positive handover from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Jun/Q2), Trade Balance (Jun), Swedish/Spanish Inflation Final (Jul), EU Industrial Production (Jun), US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/08), PPI (Jul), Norges Bank Policy Announcement (Aug). Speakers include Fed's Hammack & Barkin, Norges Bank's Bache. Supply from the US. Earnings from Applied Materials, RWE, Antofagasta & Maersk.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Strait of Hormuz authority rejected US claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV.USD/JPY saw a bout of mild pressure late in the session after Bloomberg sources said that the Takaichi government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike.US equity futures mixed, with the NQ giving back some of Wednesday's gains.DXY flat; NOK softens as the Norges Bank leaves rates unchanged but signalled progress on inflation.Fixed income benchmarks muted heading into US PPI and a US 30-year auction.Energy benchmarks steadily fall as geopolitical headlines quieten down.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/08), PPI (Jul). Speakers include Fed's Hammack & Barkin. Supply from the US. Earnings from Applied Materials.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Le Yen (JPY) suit une tendance baissière sur le FX (tendance haussière USD/JPY) depuis plus de 15 ans. Début août, une intervention combinée massive Fed/BoJ a entraîné une baisse de 800 pips du taux USD/JPY. Tokyo et Washington ont dit stop à la chute du Yen. Le sommet définitif a-t-il été fait à 164 JPY ?

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the week across mortgages, rates, and precious metals. He opens with United Wholesale Mortgage, explaining why he believes Matt Ishbia should resign after the company hedged the balance sheet of an acquisition target it didn't own and never won — a misstep that produced a six hundred million dollar loss and forced a rescue from Oak Tree on onerous terms that leave common shareholders at the back of the line. Chris contrasts that with Rocket's standout quarter and lays out his broader housing view: investment banks hold this market together until the IPO fees are booked, then step back, setting up a potential correction next year and a general decline in home prices of ten to twenty percent by 2028. From there the conversation turns to the return of financial repression — short-end yields pushed down while the long end reacts to deficits and inflation — and why, with debt approaching forty trillion, he considers Fed independence a fiction and the Treasury the dog to the Fed's tail. Chris also unpacks the Bank of Japan's thirty-day repo with the Fed, why it lit a fire under gold and silver, and David Kotok's idea of using euro-denominated US credit default swaps to benchmark gold. He closes on taxing wealth over income, the erosion of fiscal credibility, and his gold book research into thirteen hundred years of Byzantine monetary stability.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro1:08 — Why Matt Ishbia should resign from UWM2:30 — The Oak Tree rescue and what it means for shareholders3:31 — Mortgage earnings: PennyMac, loanDepot, Rocket4:23 — Is UWM going to be sold?5:43 — Health of the broader mortgage industry6:50 — Seven percent rates and where volume is coming from7:30 — What the Fed does next, and the long end8:20 — "Misery on the eights" — is the timeline accelerating?9:20 — Housing correction: 10–20% by 202810:40 — The return of financial repression12:00 — Why the Treasury benefits, and the shift to T-bills13:06 — "The Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail"13:40 — The dollar, foreign central banks, and gold reserves14:20 — The Bank of Japan repo transaction explained15:14 — What Warsh does if the FOMC wants a hike16:30 — Inflation, diesel exports, and the energy squeeze17:34 — David Kotok on benchmarking gold with credit default swaps18:40 — Why fiscal fear flows into gold19:30 — How far away is a US debt restructuring?21:04 — Taxing wealth instead of income22:42 — What cutting the deficit would actually do to rates25:15 — Back to the BOJ: why it forced gold and silver higher28:00 — What if Japan doesn't take the bonds back?28:48 — Foreign central banks are selling Treasuries29:47 — Does the US care about gold the way the rest of the world does?32:10 — Bessent and the K-shaped economy33:12 — Housekeeping: viewer question episode33:50 — Parting thoughts

The uncertain oil outlook remains a key theme, while markets await the US CPI report for fresh Fed clues. In the US, we share our forecasts for the coming CPI and retail sales releases and our Fed outlook. In Europe, we preview the central bank meeting in Norway, August sentiment data and discuss the heatwave. In Japan, we examine the BOJ outlook, with fresh minutes to be released and following recent FX intervention to support the yen.  Across Asia, we preview key data ahead and the RBA policy meeting in Australia. Chapters: US: 02:24, Europe: 07:23, Japan: 11:13, Rest of Asia: 16:31.

„Mám strach z poraženců, z falešných proroků, ze zpráv od spiklenců, z levného obroku. Bojím se vlků v zádech i ovcí dokola, tužeb po Eldorádech jimž nejde odolat,” takto začíná písnička Ostraka ze stejnojmenného alba hudebníka Michala Prokopa, za které získal hlavní cenu Anděl.Všechny díly podcastu Osobnost Plus můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

Three of the most powerful men in the global economy asked the markets to believe them, and the markets declined. On protecting capital when money, promises, and forward guidance are being printed, and gold, copper, and diesel are the only honest voices left.Hypernormal Times on Substack.For your capital markets training needs, visit my friends at Finance Talking.This week, a president's peace, a Fed chairman's credibility and a currency's floor all turned out to be things you can print a promise about but cannot manufacture. Trump called off "the biggest strike since WWII," then announced talks Iran said weren't happening, before the Hormuz "deal" morphed into a surrender document. The US Treasury raided a Fed facility to print dollars so Japan could buy yen, fiscal dominance, in plain sight, while the president phoned Chairman Warsh and Warsh apologised through anonymous friends.Meanwhile the honest voices spoke: gold to $4,300, copper to a record, and a refining shock (it's the fuel, not the crude) that a ceasefire can fix.We cover the AI sorting. Situational Awareness, the model that escaped its box, SpaceX's cheque-writer earnings and the take-forward into next week: jobs, the BoJ, Hormuz and the AI supply tide.The takeaway suggestion for serious active investors is to own the unprintable. Not investment advice, natch.If only Kev had levers that printed oil refineries and copper wire. He doesn't. Nobody does.This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Na podzim bude jasno o tom, jak se změní financování veřejnoprávních médií. „Bitva o televizi a rozhlas je o tom, kam má směřovat tahle země a jestli vítěz bere vše a může si dělat, co chce,“ říká moderátor ČT Martin Řezníček. Vláda Andreje Babiše (ANO) má jasno v tom, že chce zrušit současný model veřejnoprávních médií. Koncesionářské poplatky má nahradit financování ze státního rozpočtu. Konkrétní návrh, o kterém by poslanci měli jednat už na podzim, ale známý není. „Do dneška nevíme, co přesně v tom návrhu bude. A bude záležet na každém slovu, na každé čárce. Bude to bitva o cizelování každého slovíčka. Ale že něco chtějí udělat, je naprosto jasné. A vsadil bych si na to, že i udělají,“ odhaduje jedna z hlavních tváří České televize, moderátor Událostí Martin Řezníček, který byl hostem podcastu Mediální cirkus. Veřejnoprávně Zaměstnanci ČT i Českého rozhlasu plány vlády kritizují a bojí se o ohrožení nezávislosti. Politici podle nich nepřekládají dostatečné pojistky dalšího nezávislého fungování obou médií. Na Kavčích Horách i na Vinohradech proto vznikla protestní akce Veřejnoprávně a proběhla už i první výstražná stávka. Řezníček součástí iniciativy Veřejnoprávně není, kolegy ale podporuje. „Jsem ochoten zajít daleko,“ říká k tomu. Snahu změnu financování bere jako snahu o omezení nezávislosti veřejnoprávních médií, i když politici tvrdí opak. „Nebyl jsem přímo u toho, ale slyšel jsem, že i koaliční politici jsou schopní neformálně říci v Poslanecké sněmovně, že vlastně nejde o financování veřejnoprávních médií, že jde jenom o zpravodajství, aby fungovalo lépe ve prospěch vládnoucí většiny. Když vám tohle někdo přizná jako koaliční politik, tak si pak říkáte: ‚Opravdu vám jde o blaho téhle země?‘“ říká Řezníček a pokračuje: „Jedna věc je, co vám politici řeknou v rozhovoru. Druhá, jak útočí téměř denně na sociálních sítích, na tiskových konferencích vlády. A jak od těchto politiků máte potom brát jejich tvrzení, že jim nejde o oslabení televize a rozhlasu, když na ně permanentně útočí?“ Boj za poplatky nezávislost neohrožuje Řezníček kromě moderování zastává v televizi řadu funkcí. Je zástupcem šéfredaktora zpravodajství, šéfem zahraniční redakce a také šéfem moderátorů. V letech 2012 až 2017 byl zpravodajem ČT ve Spojených státech amerických. I když se zaměstnanci televize do bitvy o poplatky veřejně vložili, podle Řezníčka to nijak neovlivňuje jeho práci, fungování redakce ani nezávislost zpravodajství. „Nemám pocit, že by tam docházelo k nějakému ohrožení editoriální nezávislosti. Rozhodně nikdo neříká: ‚Tohle budeme hrát, tohle nebudeme hrát z toho důvodu, že to někomu uškodí nebo někomu pomůže.‘ Vůbec nic takového se tam neděje,“ tvrdí. A ovlivněn prý rozhodně není ani on sám. „Nestalo se mi jedinkrát za dobu kariéry, kdy jsem moderoval Události, komentáře, nebo jsem potom zastupoval, když odešel Václav Moravec, v nedělní debatě, že bych nepoložil otázku jenom proto, že bych se bál, jak to dopadne s televizí nebo s rozhlasem. To bych se ráno nepodíval sám na sebe do zrcadla.“ Kritika od Andreje Babiše Sám Řezníček je častým terčem kritiky politiků. Andrej Babiš ho ještě jako šéf opozice opakovaně kritizoval i od sněmovního řečnického pultíku. Nemůže mu odpustit prezidentskou debatu, kterou Řezníček moderoval v lednu 2023 právě mezi Babišem a Petrem Pavlem. Andrej Babiš na debatu tehdy přišel bez ohlášení na poslední chvíli. „S Andrejem Babišem jsem od té prezidentské debaty nijak nekomunikoval. Nevím, co si o mně myslí. Asi to nebude nic hezkého. Ale můžu soudit jenom z jeho veřejných vystoupení v Poslanecké sněmovně, kde jsem se dostal, nemyslím, že úplně právem, do stejné skupiny lidí, jako je Miroslav Kalousek a někteří ostatní, kde, když je příležitost kopnout do České televize, tak kopne,“ říká k tomu populární moderátor a pokračuje: „Ale útoky od populistů mě se nijak nedotýkají. Opravdu ne. A možná mě ta prezidentská debata, nejen průběh prezidentské debaty, ale to, co tomu těsně předcházelo, a potom hlavně co následovalo, možná nějak zocelilo. Já si z toho opravdu nic nedělám.“ Jak vnímá útoky politiků ve studiu? Mají ještě smysl veřejnoprávní média? A jak zpravodajství ČT pomohla konkurence v podobě CNN Prima News? -- Mediální cirkus, podcast Marie Bastlové o dění na mediální scéně. Zajímá ji pohled do redakcí, za kulisy novinářské práce – s předními novináři i mediálními hráči. Sledujte na Seznam Zprávách, poslouchejte na Podcasty.cz a ve všech podcastových aplikacích.

Cítím, že v Americe nastupuje autoritářský režim a nedokážu se s tím smířitDo podcastu Tekutá společnost přišla byla aktivistka a spluzakladatelka RadioFree America Natálie Kocábová. Kdy přesně se rozhodla mapovat dění v USA aveřejně o trumpismu informovat? Bojí se o budoucnost demokracie v Americe au nás? Co ji nabíjí a jak současné aktivity dopadají na její soukromý život?Pořad Tekutá společnost můžete sledovat každý čtvrtek na: • Respektu: https://www.respekt.cz/tekuta-spolecnost a v mobilní aplikaci Respekt• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4ozoQdrXPXo7WYKIIh9rMD • Apple Podcastech: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tekuta-spolecnost/id1888505574• YouTube: ⁠ https://www.youtube.com/respekt⁠

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING Bank in London, discuss dollar-yen near- and mid-term dynamics. The combined shift in the dollar view following the July 29 Fed meeting, stretched long positioning and joint US-Japan FX intervention were the perfect catalysts for a sharp move lower in dollar-yen, yet the market is already questioning whether the move can be sustained. Childe-Freeman and Turner both see a risk of further joint FX intervention, which should keep dollar-yen bulls in check for now, while US economic data and the associated Fed outlook, along with the BOJ's September policy decision and Japan's fiscal credibility, may determine how bullish investors can be on the yen into 4Q. They also discuss non-dollar ways to express the carry trade, including via bullish Norwegian krone and Australian dollar views.

This week, our Global FX Strategists unpack the fallout from the FOMC for the dollar, as well as implications from another round of Japan FX intervention against a BoJ hold. We also look at AUD's reaction to recent local data and implications from the BoE meeting for GBP.   Speakers: Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategy Kunj Padh, Global FX Strategy    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5388109-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5390436-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the fallout for the FX market from this week's Fed, BoJ and BoE policy meetings. How have the latest developments impacted the outlook for USD/JPY?

Markets start to question Fed credibility, fiscal issues stay in focus for the UK, while Japan's monetary and FX policy come into the spotlight. We discuss the Fed Chair's mixed messages and preview next week's labour market release. In our special UK segment, we reflect on the BoE's "dovish" hold and discuss fiscal plans under the new PM. In Asia, the BOJ and JPY intervention are in focus, and we also look ahead to the RBI and regional CPI data ahead. Chapters: US: 02:49 Europe: 13:00, Japan: 25:19, Rest of Asia: 30:08.

The US and Israel are considering a land blockade of Iran to increase economic pressure, senior Israeli sources told The Telegraph. The plan could involve urging neighbouring countries and regional partners to restrict border crossings and trade.Iran's IRGC said two offending tankers were hit and stopped, and four offending tankers quickly changed course. Additionally, the IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and any transit and movement will be possible only with the coordination of the IRGC Navy. BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected, through an 8-1 vote, with board member Takata the dissenter who proposed a 25bps rate hike. Little move seen in Japanese assets following the announcement and Governor Ueda press conference. US equity futures are firmer, with Amazon surging pre-market (+12%) after reporting faster AWS growth.Fixed income benchmarks are mixed and way off best levels as energy prices rebound following recent reporting of a land blockade and hit tankers (Brent +0.3%).Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian GDP (May), US University of Michigan Final (Jul). Speakers include BoE's Pill, Fed's Hammack, Logan & Kashkari. Earnings from AbbVie & Chevron. Scope Ratings update on Switzerland.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the yen has substantially overshot equilibrium and the US views excess yen volatility as unhealthy, while he added that the yen is very undervalued and that Japan may have intervened in currency markets on Thursday.Nikkei sources said Japan's government and BoJ intervened in the FX market yesterday by buying yen and selling dollars, while desks conducted rate checks.BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected, through an 8-1 vote, with board member Takata the dissenter who proposed a 25bps rate hike; little move in Japanese assets on the announcement.After-hours US earnings saw Amazon (AMZN) rise almost 10% whilst Apple (AAPL) fell over 6%.APAC stocks were mostly higher following the tech-inspired momentum stateside; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8%.Looking ahead, highlights include French/Italian/EU Inflation Flash (Jul), German Unemployment Rate (Jul), Canadian GDP (May), US University of Michigan Final (Jul). Speakers include BoJ Governor Ueda, BoE's Pill, Fed's Hammack, Logan & Kashkari. Earnings from AbbVie, Chevron, Credit Agricole & NatWest. Scope Ratings update on Switzerland rating.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Please join Sphia Salim for a discussion with the global rates team on the implications of all the central bank decisions taken this week. We will review the exceptionally uncertain Fed meeting and debate the outlook for 2y & 10y UST yields. We will also discuss the takeaways from the guidance provided by the BoE and BoJ. The call took place on Friday, July 31st, 2026.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami and Danny Moses discuss rising global yields and stress points in markets, focusing on Japan's weakening yen, deteriorating bond market, and risks around Japan's role as a major US Treasury holder and potential carry-trade unwind, with BOJ and Fed meetings ahead. They note August's tendency toward volatility and how attention may shift from strong earnings to macro concerns as AI-driven CapEx pressures free cash flow at hyperscalers, raising valuation questions and fears of open-source competition. They preview key earnings including Apple (seen as a defensive AI conduit despite a rich valuation), Microsoft, Meta, and major energy firms, which may post strong results but avoid political blowback. They discuss mixed consumer signals from Capital One, AmEx, and retailers, reiterate a constructive longer-term view on gold tied to Fed policy, and share updates on Moses's podcasts, Substack work, and a veterans charity event. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Roberto Rios aka Peruvian Bull, is a macro analyst and author of the highly acclaimed "Dollar Endgame" series. Reporting on Japan as the canary in the coal mine for the global economy.› https://x.com/peruvian_bull› https://www.youtube.com/@peruvian_bullPARTNERS

Preview of the Fed, BOE, BOJ and MAS and a segment discussing market risks with special guest Vijay Sundaram, Global Head of Front Office Risk & Control. We discuss the Fed and BOE remaining on-hold, US core PCE inflation easing, and the latest on UK fiscal plans. Central banks in Japan and Singapore are in focus; we think both are likely to pause, but it is a much closer call for MAS than BOJ. Special guest: Vijay Sundaram, our Global Head of Front Office Risk, speaks about market risks and how risk management is evolving. Chapters: US: 02:27, Europe: 09:21, Japan: 16:28, Rest of Asia: 20:40.

US Secretary of State Rubio said the US has many options to deal with Iran if it refuses to negotiate. He also stated that China is displeased with Iran's actions in the Strait and Iran is in a lot of trouble.Iranian Interior Ministry spokesperson said there is currently no ongoing negotiation and that it may only involve the exchange of messages, Mehr News reported.BoJ officials are reportedly considering hiking rates faster than every 6 months due to the JPY's weakness adding to upside inflation risks, Bloomberg reported. Initial weakness was seen in JGBs while JPY saw fleeting strength. US equity futures trades with losses, with underperformance in the NQ ahead of Tesla and Alphabet earnings AMC.Fixed income benchmarks hold steady despite the surge in energy prices (Brent +4.8%).Looking ahead, highlights include US MBA Mortgage Applications, Supply from the US, Earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, and IBM.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In the second part of our economic roundtable, Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya join Seth Carpenter to discuss how central banks are balancing sticky inflation, resilient growth and regional policy trade-offs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again today, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, the Chief U.S. Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist, and on the other side of the world, Chetna Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist. Yesterday, we talked about what's supporting growth around the world, especially AI spending in the U.S. and some government spending in Europe, and Asia's role in making all of this happen. Today, we're going to try to dig deeper and go into policy. It's Tuesday, July 21st at 10 am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since the last time we did this in mid-April, I will say the debate around central banks has probably become more complicated. Global growth has held up, probably better than many people expected. And inflation, which picked up a lot, started to recede. But it has not gone away. And some of the forces helping to shape the economy, the AI spending, government spending, that possible upswing in manufacturing, that could keep demand strong, and it might keep pushing inflation higher. So, the question today is, if growth remains resilient, how much room really do central banks have to navigate? Mike, let me start with you because your call for the Fed here in the U.S. is out of consensus, or at least at odds with where the market is pricing things. We talked about the demand going from AI. You pointed out that imports are actually limiting how much domestic demand there is. So, what is the underlying story for inflation in the U.S.? And what does it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: So, our view is that inflation will come down in the U.S. So, we think disinflation will be driven by some payback in energy prices. Some payback from tariffs, which have pushed up goods prices over the last year. And some further diminishment in housing-related inflation, namely shelter. So, we think on a broad-based perspective, inflation has already peaked and will start moving lower. And we think we've seen evidence of this in recent inflation prints. A risk to that, though, is from the demand side of the economy and AI-related inflation in two parts. One, higher software prices, chipflation. So, the pass-through of some of the AI pricing components. Fortunately, here, they're about less than 1 percent of the consumer basket. So, we don't think that there's a great risk, a strong risk, a high risk of AI-related inflation in the consumer bundle. I think the real risk is that maybe we underestimate broad-based demand, animal spirits. And so, you might just see a broad-based increase in inflation from stronger demand. That'll be a little bit harder to see in real times. But our expectation is that inflation moves lower to about 3 percent, by the end of this year and closer to 2.5 percent next year. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks, Mike. And in fact, the most recent inflation report that we just got confirms your perspective that inflation should be coming down. And so, I guess the question then remains: What would it take for the Fed to hike this year if inflation has come down like we've seen? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the answer there is that inflation wouldn't come down in line with our expectations. So, if the view is that energy prices, tariffs, and shelter inflation should provide plenty of offset and bring inflation down, I think the answer is you don't get payback. Explicitly, core goods prices stay elevated. Maybe we get ongoing disruptions in the Middle East that push energy prices higher and create second-round effects. So, I think inflation just lingering at elevated levels could mean the Fed gets brought in to raise rates in September or later this year. We think if they're patient enough, they'll see enough disinflation to keep them on the sidelines. But the risk is disinflation forecast is too optimistic, inflation stays firm, the Fed needs to raise rates. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, what about for you and the ECB? They've already raised interest rates once this year. I think you've got a forecast for them raising interest rates again in September. What could make you wrong about that forecast? What's going to make you convinced that you're right about that forecast? And is there a similar tension that the ECB is wrestling with that Mike talked about for the Fed? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah. I mean, starting with the last part of your question, I think no doubt, very similar tension. Just that, of course, it's less obvious. It's essentially a nuanced European version instead of the loud American version that we always stereotypically think the world looks like. So, essentially, we have here clearly not an AI boom. That, I mean, there's no question. And we have discussed that yesterday. Still, there is certainly the notion that the world demand is not really weak, and some of this will also arrive in Europe. And so, you have that tension between maybe there's more resilience than we had thought, and so inflation will not come down through to slack as much. And so, we might actually add something here in terms of monetary restrictiveness. Now, the other thing that is often forgotten, even though it's blatantly obvious, the starting point is just different. The ECB is running neutral monetary policy by all accounts. I mean, you could say 2 percent is neutral, and now they are 2.25. But, you know, there are ranges of uncertainty around any estimate. And the latest that they published runs – goes from 1.75 to 2;2.5. So basically, even if they were to increase rates to 2.5 in September, you could go with the microphone around the governing council, and you would probably find a lot of people saying, "Well, this is still a neutral policy." That's probably not the case for the U.S. So, I guess this matters here for that debate too. Seth Carpenter: All right. Yesterday we talked about lots of different things, but for Europe, we brought up fiscal policy. How do you think about fiscal policy and how it affects monetary policy? And so, I'm thinking about two channels. One, how much does the ECB care that if they keep pushing up interest rates, they're going to increase the debt service burden for countries that are already facing high debt costs? And second, is fiscal policy going to be the extra impetus for inflation that forces even more rate hikes from the ECB? Jens Eisenschmidt: I guess it depends on who you ask. Certainly, more concerned members in the governing council that would point to exactly that fiscal stimulus as a reason why interest rates have to be increased further from here. The other answer I would give is – probably for now at least, the view on fiscal policy is really model-based. You look at what type of increase in interest rate gets you essentially more fiscal restraint because there's an increase in interest rate bill and so less spending somewhere else. And that gets you basically less stimulus or less growth, I mean, very roughly speaking. I don't think it's a major concern for now. We haven't reached yet interest rates where this would start to play a role. I guess, again, Europe being fragmented as it is, with all the political risk that's around the corner. Think about the elections in France and Italy and Spain next year. That will very likely find itself expressed in spreads. And so, the higher the interest rates are, the larger the spreads could become. Seth Carpenter: So, for each of you, there's clearly a role for inflation. One of the risks we'll talk about maybe is inflation expectations and how maybe there's a big shift in what's going on with inflation. But Chetan, that brings me to you and Asia, because one economy where there unquestionably has been a fundamental shift in inflation and inflation expectation over the past several years is Japan. The Bank of Japan is on this normalization path where they're raising interest rates. Interest rates had been negative and then zero, and now they're gradually raising things up. Inflation has come back to Japan. Markets are looking at what the Bank of Japan is likely to do. Can you tell us a little bit about what our view is for the Bank of Japan this year and next? And what might make them hike interest rates faster than we think? And is there any risk that in fact they hike interest rates slower than we think? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we are expecting BoJ to hike twice from here. The first rate hike is coming up in December of this year, and then another one coming up in June of next year. And then we think that, you know, the underlying inflation trend in Japan is not really that strong. So, while market pricing is for about three more rate hikes instead of two that we are building in our base case. And some of the macro investors are even talking about four more rate hikes. We think the underlying inflation trend warrants a caution and BoJ to go slowly than what the market is pricing in and what the macro investors are saying in. And the key part of our framework on thinking about Japan's inflation is that bulk of the explanation to inflation rise in Japan lies in currency moves. And secondarily, you can look at also the other drivers are more from supply side, which is higher energy prices or food prices. Whereas it's not driven so much by demand. To elaborate further on why it is not driven by demand, when you look at Japan's consumption trend, and if you index it to hundred at pre-COVID levels in September [20]19 then it's currently about 101; i.e., that it's just about 1 percent up over the last seven years. So that's a very tepid trend of consumption demand. And therefore, we don't think that BoJ needs to rush into hike in a more aggressive pace going forward. Seth Carpenter: So, there is this fundamental shift, but boy, it's not on a tear, and so the BoJ can take its time. You know, Chetan, it's hard to wrap up a conversation about the global economy without talking about China. I get the sense that there's not a lot going on with monetary policy, but we did just see a soft Q2 GDP print. So, against that backdrop, what should we be expecting in terms of policy? Is there any monetary policy coming? Or is there going to be some fiscal expansion? Or is China just sort of stuck in this lower gear? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we were also surprised by the soft GDP print. But when you look into the data, actually, it was interestingly doing well on exports. And I mentioned earlier about how the global CapEx trend is helping Asia. It's definitely helping China too. But at the same time, China's domestic demand turned out to be quite weak. And particularly in the areas where we think that the policy response can be providing some help, i.e., infrastructure spend, was also very weak. And therefore, we are expecting that in the back half of the year, you will see the government taking up some fiscal expansion. Not new stimulus announcement, but whatever they had budgeted. They have enough room within that to utilize that budget and actually increase that fiscal spending towards infrastructure. We have about 2 trillion RMB worth of funds available for the government to go ahead and spend in the second half. And then lift that growth trend, which has dipped to 4.3 percent in second quarter to back to 4.6 percent in the back half of the year. Seth Carpenter: You know what? Maybe that's a great place for us to leave it. We've gone around the world again today, but this time focusing much more on policy. In the U.S., the Fed is facing this interesting situation. We think inflation is coming down. The last CPI print went in our favor. And so as a result, our forecast is that the Fed doesn't change policy at all this year. But it's going to come down to the data, and in particular, whether or not Mike and his team are right in terms of where inflation is going. In Europe, the ECB has already raised interest rates once this year. Jens and team are looking for another interest rate hike. The ECB really does seem more sensitive to inflation coming from the energy shock, but there are lots of other crosscurrents that they're paying attention to as well. And then the other major developed market central bank, the Bank of Japan, is on this normalization path. They are in the process of raising interest rates, but Chetan pointed out to us that the growth rate is such that they don't have to be in any sort of hurry, and they can take their time. So, with that, Mike, Jens, Chetan, thank you so much for helping us connect all of these dots. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors to discuss shifting Fed communication under Kevin Warsh, including a push away from strong forward guidance like recent comments from Waller. Emons distinguishes disinflation from deflation, noting a negative month-to-month CPI driven by energy declines but warning energy has already rebounded, making expectations volatile. He highlights “funflation” in categories like recreation and food away from home alongside broad underlying price pressures. The group debates whether AI is inflationary, with Emons pointing to supply-constrained memory prices and AI-related investment as drivers, and discusses IBM's sharp drop after clients shifted CapEx toward servers, storage, and memory. They also cover Middle East Strait closures adding an oil war premium, positioning risks across crude, rates, and equities, yen weakness and potential BOJ action, and heightened volatility and leverage in a “Parabolic Seven” chip/memory cohort that could trigger broader market rotation and tightening financial conditions. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

The Iran deal is dead again, ships are getting hit in the Gulf, and the ten year is back above four point five five. Marty and John sort through the latest Middle East escalation, why both sides actually want the conflict to keep going, and what it means for oil, LNG, and bond volatility. They dig into Japan's thirty year yield highs and the delicate balance the BOJ is walking, Mohamed El-Erian vouching for Bessent's industrial policy in the New York Times, and why the MOVE index might matter more than the absolute rate level. They also cover Circle's bank charter approval, the OpenUSD consortium bringing Wall Street and Silicon Valley together around the digital dollar, and the growing turf war over who gets to run America's strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Ethics concerns from Senate Democrats remain the biggest obstacle for the upper chamber to pass a crypto market structure bill. Meanwhile, whales are still buying Ethereum ETFs. ~This Episode is Sponsored by OKX~ Trade RLUSD/XRP on OKX + claim the new user offer! Deposit $100 to get $50 ➜ https://bit.ly/OKXRP Use code: paulbarron *Terms Apply* 00:10 Sponsor: OKX 00:50 Tingling feeling 01:10 Scott Melker: Bottom building 02:40 Matt Hougan: Feels like 2019 05:10 BTC in 2019 06:20 ETFs rising 270K BTC in 30days 07:10 Vanguard bends the knee? 08:10 July rally? 08:30 Institution loading up on ETH 09:00 ETH/BTC in 2019 09:45 Robinhood chain ETH Unlock 11:30 Fed blames AI for inflation 12:50 Bloomberg: AI will take time 14:15 CNBC: Inflation vs politics 16:15 CNBC: The market vs the fed minutes 17:10 BOJ precursor? 17:45 Iran's leverage 18:20 Strategy earnings 18:45 CLARITY mess #crypto #bitcoin #ethereum ~Institutional Buying Spree?

Iran's IRGC fired at least two missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing a US official. It was separately reported that one was a Qatari LNG tanker. Brent Sept'26 +1.2%.Fars reported that the Qatari tanker attempted to pass through the Omani route and ignored repeated warnings.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue.Global tech stocks fall after Samsung Electronics (-6.9%) shares plummeted post-earnings; NQ -1%.DXY is incrementally firmer, JPY marginally outperforms after a Japanese official pushed back on reports that the government is urging the BoJ to lower interest rates.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Trade Balance (May), New York Fed SCE (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Canadian Trade Balance (May), Ivey PMI (Jun), EIA STEO (Jul), NATO Ankara Summit. Supply from the US. Speakers include BoE's Mann.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran's IRGC fired at least two missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing a US official. It was separately reported that one was a Qatari LNG tanker.Fars reported that the Qatari tanker attempted to pass through the Omani route and ignored repeated warnings.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue.KOSPI slumped following post-earnings losses in Samsung Electronics (-9.7%). Co. topped forecasts, but failed to calm fears surrounding elevated valuations. European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open.DXY is incrementally firmer, whilst the JPY marginally outperforms after a Japanese official pushed back on reports that the government is urging the BoJ to lower interest rates.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production (May), French Trade Balance (May), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Trade Balance (May), New York Fed SCE (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Canadian Trade Balance (May), Ivey PMI (Jun), EIA STEO (Jul), NATO Ankara Summit. Supply from the UK, Germany and the US. Speakers include BoE's Mann.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

VOV1 - Đồng Yên giảm xuống mức thấp nhất so với đồng đôla kể từ năm 1986, bất chấp việc Ngân hàng Trung ương Nhật Bản liên tục điều chỉnh tăng lãi suất nhằm bình thường hóa chính sách tiền tệ.Đà mất giá kéo dài của đồng nội tệ làm gia tăng sức ép đối với Chính phủ Nhật Bản và thị trường ngày càng kỳ vọng Tokyo sẽ phải can thiệp để ổn định tỷ giá. Theo dữ liệu của Sở giao dịch chứng khoán Luân Đôn (LSEG), đồng Yên có thời điểm giao dịch ở mức 162,19 yên đổi 1 USD, mức thấp nhất trong gần 4 thập kỷ. Diễn biến này ngay lập tức thu hút sự chú ý của thị trường, nhất là sau khi Nhật Bản đã chi hơn 11,7 nghìn tỷ yên từ cuối tháng 4 đến cuối tháng 5 để hỗ trợ đồng tiền.Bộ trưởng Tài chính Nhật Bản Satsuki Katayama khẳng định chính phủ sẵn sàng hành động nếu thị trường xuất hiện những biến động quá mức. Trong khi đó, Chánh Văn phòng Nội các Minoru Kihara cho biết chính phủ sẽ tiếp tục xây dựng một nền kinh tế ít phụ thuộc hơn vào biến động tỷ giá, đồng thời vẫn duy trì khả năng can thiệp thị trường ngoại hối khi cần thiết. Tuy nhiên, ông từ chối bình luận về mức tỷ giá hiện tại của đồng yên.Theo chuyên gia Ruth Carson tại Mỹ, việc đồng Yên liên tiếp lập mức thấp mới có thể làm gia tăng áp lực trong nước, qua đó khiến khả năng chính phủ phải hành động trở nên lớn hơn. Tuy nhiên, bà cho rằng hiệu quả của bất kỳ đợt can thiệp nào cũng chỉ mang tính tạm thời.“Điều mà thị trường đang quan tâm lúc này là khả năng Chính phủ Nhật Bản can thiệp vào thị trường ngoại hối. Câu hỏi không còn là liệu khả năng đó có tồn tại hay không, mà là nó đang ở gần đến mức nào và khi nào các nhà chức trách sẽ thực sự hành động. Cần lưu ý rằng tỷ giá USD/JPY không tăng vọt trong thời gian ngắn mà đã leo dần trong một thời gian. Tốc độ mất giá của đồng Yên là một trong những yếu tố quan trọng mà giới chức Nhật Bản theo dõi khi cân nhắc việc can thiệp. Nếu đồng Yên lao dốc nhanh và mạnh, thị trường chắc chắn sẽ phải đặt trong trạng thái cảnh giác cao.”Ngân hàng Trung ương Nhật Bản (BOJ) mới đây đây đã nâng lãi suất chuẩn lên 1%, mức cao nhất kể từ năm 1995, tiếp tục lộ trình bình thường hóa chính sách tiền tệ bắt đầu từ năm 2024. Tuy nhiên, động thái này vẫn chưa đủ để đảo ngược xu hướng suy yếu của đồng Yên, khi thị trường tiếp tục kỳ vọng Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ (Fed) sẽ duy trì mặt bằng lãi suất cao, qua đó giữ khoảng cách đáng kể về lãi suất giữa 2 nền kinh tế.Theo giới phân tích, chính chênh lệch lãi suất này đang thúc đẩy các giao dịch chênh lệch lãi suất (carry trade), trong đó nhà đầu tư vay đồng Yên với chi phí thấp để đầu tư vào các tài sản có lợi suất cao hơn ở nước ngoài, qua đó tạo thêm áp lực giảm giá đối với đồng tiền Nhật Bản.Cùng với diễn biến trên thị trường tiền tệ, lợi suất trái phiếu chính phủ Nhật Bản cũng tăng mạnh ở các kỳ hạn siêu dài. Trên thị trường chứng khoán, chỉ số Nikkei 225 có thời điểm tăng hơn 1.100 điểm, tương đương hơn 1,6%, nhờ lực mua quay trở lại đối với nhóm cổ phiếu trí tuệ nhân tạo và chất bán dẫn sau giai đoạn điều chỉnh. Tuy nhiên, áp lực chốt lời xuất hiện về cuối phiên khiến chỉ số thu hẹp đáng kể đà tăng và dao động trong biên độ hẹp.Đồng Yên yếu tiếp tục mang lại lợi ích cho các doanh nghiệp xuất khẩu và hỗ trợ thị trường chứng khoán Nhật Bản duy trì vùng đỉnh lịch sử. Tuy nhiên, mặt trái là chi phí nhập khẩu, đặc biệt đối với năng lượng và nguyên liệu được thanh toán bằng USD, tiếp tục tăng cao, làm gia tăng áp lực lạm phát và bào mòn sức mua của các hộ gia đình. Điều đó khiến việc ổn định tỷ giá trở thành một trong những thách thức kinh tế lớn nhất đối với Chính phủ Nhật Bản trong giai đoạn hiện nay./. Thu Hoài/VOV1Đồng yên lao dốc xuống mức thấp nhất trong 40 năm

Brian Szytel recaps markets on June 30, the last day of Q2, noting a strong first half for the Dow and the best Nasdaq quarter since 2020, with tech leading as the Dow rose 136 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% while the 10-year yield increased 8 bps. He highlights the Japanese yen at its weakest versus the dollar in over 40 years (~162), describing the yen carry trade and warning that BOJ interventions (about 11 trillion yen) and rate hikes could trigger volatility like August 2024. He also discusses rising system leverage, with margin debt up 54% year over year to about $1.4T and the risks of triple-leveraged single-stock ETFs for retail investors. Economic data included weaker consumer confidence, stronger JOLTS openings with steady quits, lower Chicago PMI, and softer Case-Shiller home prices (down monthly, +0.7% YoY). 00:00 Market Wrap Q2 Finale 01:32 Yen Weakness And Carry Trade 02:40 BOJ Intervention Risks 03:47 Leverage Rising In Markets 04:22 Margin Debt And Leveraged ETFs 05:51 Economic Data Roundup 06:48 Closing Thoughts And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

After a busy week of central bank meetings, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Nico Jan Thiesen, Global Client Sales to discuss the implications for the FX markets. The Fed meeting impact on the dollar, the BoJ impact on the yen and the BoE impact on the pound are discussed as are the implications for EUR cross currency risks given the potential for moves in the US dollar.

A.M. Edition for June 16. President Trump's Iran deal may be providing relief for markets, but central bankers are not convinced the inflation spike is over yet, with the BOJ and RBA warning of higher prices for longer. Plus, WSJ tech reporter Georgia Wells details how AI is supercharging deepfake nudes, with more than half of teens having created a nude image, unleashing a new form of bullying amongst kids. And, Iran's World Cup team was ordered to leave the U.S. after their opening match against New Zealand. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's John J. Hardy Substack post for this podcast Today we look at a fresh stunning advance in US equities as we reapproach the all time highs for the main US indices, with a wild advance in SpaceX shares perhaps one key bit of the sentiment "tail" wagging the overall market dog as we also discuss why SpaceX shares may have risen so aggressively, even after hours yesterday. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the RBA and BoJ meetings and their impact, what we're watching for from the Fed, observations on the quality and sustainability of the US-Iran "deal" and more. Today' pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Andrew and Ben discuss the BOJ hiking rates 25bps to 1% without Governor Ueda and signaling more hikes ahead despite a 250% debt/GDP ratio, the European Parliament ratifying the US-EU trade deal 440-151 with 15% tariffs on most EU goods and preferential access for US farm produce, the Huntsman-Olin merger creating OlinHuntsman with $400 million in synergies, and growing skepticism around the Iran deal as bonds refuse to buy in and disagreements remain over Hormuz tolls, the nuclear timeline, and Israel's posture on Lebanon.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at the G7 summit in Evian, France, touting a win via the signing of a peace framework with Iran. The deal extends the ceasefire by 60 days and re-opens the Strait of Hormuz. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy is also at the summit and is due to meet leaders with EU membership discussions on the agenda. The BoJ lifts its benchmark interest rate to 1 per cent – its highest level in 30 years – seeking to normalise monetary policy and bring down inflation. Wall Street is in the green following news of the Middle East peace agreement. The Nasdaq surged 3 per cent on Monday while SpaceX shares clock a further 20 per cent in growth.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

US President Trump said the Hormuz deal is fully signed and that the Strait of Hormuz has already partially reopened, with a complete reopening expected on Friday.The US claim that Lebanon is not included in the memorandum of understanding is false, reports Fars, citing sources.Israeli artillery shelling was reported in southern Lebanon, while it was also reported that Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli soldiers in the region.APAC stocks were mixed, cooling from the relief rally seen on Monday; European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open.DXY is a touch firmer and trades around 99.70; JPY incrementally gains post-BoJ, which delivered a 25bps hike, as expected. The Aussie was little moved by the RBA's hawkish hold.Looking ahead, highlights include Italian Inflation Final (May), EU/German ZEW (Jun), US ADP Weekly, Import/Export Prices (May), Housing Starts (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Speakers including RBA's Bullock, BoJ's Uchida & ECB's Lane, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The BoJ hiked rates to 1.00%, as expected, while the RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35% following three consecutive 25bp rate hikes. Qatar is to restore half of its LNG output a month after the Strait of Hormuz opens, with output to reach 80% of full output within two months.US equity futures are mixed, while SPCX (+10.2% pre-market) looks set to surpass AMZN's market cap.DXY softer amid pressure in energy prices; JPY and AUD flat following rate announcements.Fixed income benchmarks are broadly higher, while JGBs fell as the BoJ paused purchase tapering from FY27.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, Import/Export Prices (May), Housing Starts (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Speakers including ECB's Lane, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Today, a look at risk sentiment in full swing after a successful SpaceX IPO on Friday and a stronger sense that the Iran war ceasefire may last long enough for shipping lanes to fully open in the Hormuz Strait, at least for a time. But while speculative energy remains high in equities, the broader macro picture is subdued, with little FX and rates volatility even as the new Kevin Warsh Fed marks the biggest shift at the Fed in a generation. This and much more, including the BoJ up tonight, on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy Links John's The FX Trader piece from today, discussing the technical situation in EURUSD and previewing the seven G-10 central bank meetings this week. A 20-minute CNBC interview with SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, where she talks a good game and even delivers the outlook for orbiting data centers with a straight face.  FT discusses the many forced buyers of SpaceX as the company has been fast tracked to join many major stock indices, the members of which enjoy passive inflows. The Wall Street Journal with the basic, but important discussion of how Kevin Warsh is set to alter the Fed's communication strategy (an important first step, but as emphasized on the podcast - there are much bigger questions afoot down the line.) About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.    

Česko navštívila lídryně běloruské opozice Svjatlana Cichanouská. Vítězka prezidentských voleb v roce 2020, které režim diktátora Alexandra Lukašenka zmanipuloval ve svůj prospěch, se setkala s prezidentem Petrem Pavlem a vládními i opozičními politiky. „Při každé její návštěvě dochází k propojování českého politického spektra v otázce Běloruska. Boj za svobodu a demokracii strany spojuje,“ věří Kryscina Šyjanok, ředitelka Kanceláře demokratických sil Běloruska.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how building investor optimism over a US-Iran deal and Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting as Fed Chair are likely to impact the USD. Will another BoJ rate hike be sufficient to trigger a reversal of JPY weakness?

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Truth Social post declaring Iran's military "completely defeated" and the deal effectively dead, today's CPI print with consensus at +4.2% headline, the BOJ rate hike path complicated by Governor Ueda's hospitalization, Super Micro's $7 billion dilutive stock offering to fund $39 billion in backlog orders, the building AI supply overhang from OpenAI's S-1, Google, SpaceX, and Perplexity's 2028 IPO plans, Claude Fable 5's release stabilizing tech, TSMC's 30% May sales rebound, and Oracle earnings tonight.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Toto je zkrácená verze (45 min). Celý díl (76 min) a bez reklam jen za 100,-/měsíc si můžeš pustit ⁠zde a odemknou další⁠: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5J9wjvldtRitxa6FVmqtsO?si=9fc7b15d41ef47c1Co se děje v mozku, když se rozpadne příběh o tom, kdo jsi. O neviditelné nemoci, dekreaci, posvátnu a hledání smyslu.Mluvíme o tom, co se stane, když přestaneš být režisérem vlastního filmu a začneš ubírat místo přidávat. Proč se tvůj mozek může chovat jednou jako demokrat, který si se svými přesvědčeními povídá, a podruhé jako král, který se stane tyranem. Jak meditace a psychedelika dokážou na chvíli udělat v hlavě anarchii, ze které může vyvstat něco nového. A proč pocit posvátna mění tvoje zdraví, i když v nic nevěříš.Je to díl o malém a velkém já, o tom, jak si dovolit cítit úplně všechno, a o jedné větě, která tě dokáže zasáhnout přímo do srdce. Pokud sám něčím procházíš, tohle je připomínka, že nejsi sám a že na tobě záleží.Zmíněné studie a jména: daraxonrazib a léčba metastatické rakoviny slinivky, santifikace (Krumrei a Manusko, 2025), studie „Affect, Connect and Grow“ o sebepřesahujících emocích, Dag Hammarskjöld, John Vervaeke, Sam Harris.Macromo:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Krevní testy jsou objektivní data ohledně vašeho zdraví. Nechte si udělat premium krevní testy na jednom ze 120 odběrových míst a výsledky dostanete pohodlně do Macromo aplikace. Můj nejoblíbenější aspekt je sledování dlouhodobých trendů v průběhu času, tak si objednej premium testy s ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Macromo.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ a zadej kod "BWA" pro slevu!⁠⁠⁠Uplife.cz⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -Zadej kód "BWA" pro slevu 10% na vybrané zboží na eshopu ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.uplife.cz/brain-we-are/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Kam dále?Kup si jeden z našich online kurzů ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Průvodce Mozkem a Myslí⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, nebo ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Mentální Modely⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ a s kódem "BWA30" je tam SLEVA 30%!Zadej kód "BWA" pro slevu 10% na vybrané zboží na eshopu ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠uplife.cz⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠herbal-store.cz⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sledujte Brain We Are na sociálních sítích: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ( ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.instagram.com/brain_we_are⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ) nebo⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook ⁠⁠⁠Minutáž:00:00 Úvod a co se dělo v poslední době05:53 Boj s chronickým únavovým syndromem (ME/CFS)09:53 Průlomová klinická studie léčby rakoviny slinivky14:21 Ztráta identity a opouštění zažitých rolí17:38 Koncept dekreace: Kdy přestat tvořit a začít ubírat21:49 Flexibilita mysli a napojení se na velké já26:05 Neduální probuzení a meditace podle Sama Harrise30:15 Je modlitba sebereferenční proces?33:55 Uzly přesvědčení: Mozek jako demokrat i tyran35:56 Vliv psychedelik na prediktivní mozek a ego42:50 Santifikace aneb pozitivní dopady vnímání posvátnaPřechod do VIP části- Radost z maličkostí a nabourávání rigidních modelů- Přijetí negativních emocí a technika noting- Studie: Jak úžas, vděčnost a soucit posilují smysl života- Transjektivní stav, relevance a hledání smyslu- Síla poezie a psychologické odložení zbraní- Tři metafory z buddhismu a daoismu (Zablácená cesta, Prázdná loď, Dva šípy)- Nedrancuj řeku: Dag Hammarskjöld a závěrečná báseň

“Japan panics. The rest of the world just hasn't realized it yet.” - Michael Gayed. The BOJ is losing the war to save the yen—and the reverse carry trade is about to trigger a global margin call.

The conclusion of our two-part episode from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit looks at structural shifts in Japan's economy and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's strategic growth agenda.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. This is Part 2 of our podcast from the Japan Summit.It's Friday, May 22nd at 8 am in Tokyo.I might stick with equities for just a minute, and Sho, just to dig deeper into the equity market. Jonathan expressed some of the bullishness. Anything you want to elaborate on where the real strong conviction on this positive view about Japanese equities is coming from?And then just as a warning, I'm going to come back to you and ask, if you're wrong, where could you be wrong? Because again, I think where we add value most to clients is not just giving a clear view, but also pressure testing that view.Sho Nakazawa: Our constructive view on Japan equities comes down to one simple point. Three structural changes are still continuing. So, the first is shifting macro environment. The combination of stable inflation and wage growth is a kind of phenomenon we have not seen, at least in my lifetime. It changes corporates and households' behavior, especially in terms of balance sheet management.And then secondly, the corporates profit improvements. We do not see it as a cyclical recovery. We see it as a structural change. As in the past, Japan corporates heavily relied on cost-cutting amid a deflationary environment. But today, price pass-through is improving, and the Japan corporates are becoming better positioned in growth profit in nominal growth environment.The third is corporate governance reform. Awareness of the capital efficiency has clearly increased. We continue to see share buybacks, dividends increase, and a portfolio restructuring as well. And on top of that, the Takaichi administration has made growth investment and crisis management investment as well.Of course, the Middle East situation is a source of noise. But structurally is a supporting factor for Japan equities secular bear market, which is a view Jonathan has held for very long time, has actually becoming stronger.But let me say that if I'm wrong, maybe I should be more bullish. In fact, the two key drivers here, if we assess the bear case scenario on Japan equities…So, one key driver should be the upside come from the investors constructive view on the Japan fiscal efficiency. And on a micro level, the corporate behavior changing faster than market expects. If we assess the recent rise in long-term yields, it reflect the concern to the Japan fiscal position and that BoJ behind the curve.It would weigh on the Japan equity valuation because it raises cost of capital and it weighs on the Japan equity valuation. But on the other hand, [the] Japanese government will disclose its basic policy in June. And if it could include a credible plan to improve Japan's fiscal positions, perhaps under Japan version of DOGE, which is led by Financial Minister Katayama-san, I think it could alleviate the excessive concern toward the Japan's fiscal position, and it [could] lower the cost of capital on Japan equities.You know, micro level, the corporates behavior is already changing, as I mentioned. But there's still plenty, you know, space for Japan corporates to utilize non-cash generating assets such as cash and deposit, which is equivalent to 60 percent of GDP. The ratio is far higher than our global peers.So, if Japan corporates move further to capital efficiency or portfolio restructuring or use some excess capital, I think there should be additional room for Japan equity market to re-rate higher.Seth Carpenter: All right. So, if you're wrong, it's insufficient bullishness. That's a great place to be.So, so Koichi, Jonathan and Sho are bullish on equities. And so, do you expect big shift in capital flows, and would that drive further appreciation of the currency? How do you think about the global investors' view of Japan? And what it means for capital flows on the one hand, and the value of the currency on the other?Koichi Sugisaki: As for the capital flows, I think under this fresh regime, what's the notable change among the Japanese financials? That they are shifting away from the fixed income product, I mean, like JGBs.Given the current attractive yields, you maybe wonder[ing] why the banking sectors buy the JGBs. But according to the recent disclosures, they have not purchased the JGBs much because their lending activity performed very well. So, as far as their lending activity have performed well, they have no incentive to make money in the securities investment.You know, their lending activity have accelerated thanks to the corporate CapEx investment to improve the productivity amidst the labor shortages in Japan. Once the banking sector starts to see some slowdown or some symptom of the lending activity to slow down, in such a case, they are quickly shifted to the securities investment and the JGB market will change the world.But so far, you know, lending growth [has] accelerated much. You know, the April lending growth is around 6 percent on the year-on-year basis, very strong. So, I think the banking sector still not have a[n] incentive to buy the JGBs.As for the lifers, [the] case is much more serious, I think. Because of the younger ages shifting towards the equities to defend the asset, particularly under the new NISA scheme [which] was launched in 2024. The younger peoples basically allocate their asset to the equities rather than the saving type of the products.Which means that the lifers are struggling to make, to gather the new monies. And this means that the demand for the long-term JGB to shrink. And the Japan lifers already filled the duration this much by 2023 to prepare for the new regulations starting from this fiscal year. Now, fortunately, they already finished the duration this much, this type of operation by 2023. But the yield [has] gone up from 2024, thanks to the BoJ's normalization.So, under such conditions, they are now struggling to the high market loss on the long-term JGBs. And some of lifers are now facing the impairment loss accounting. That actually [makes] lifers a net seller of the long-term JGBs rather than the buyers.Seth Carpenter: Okay, super helpful. Okay, we focused a lot on near-term developments, the energy shock, first quarter GDP. But we can think about a longer-term growth scenario. And there, I think AI comes in at times. Chetan, you've talked about the near-term super cycle, and I think there's a near-term aggregate demand side to AI, but over the longer term, maybe it's more supply.When I think about where growth is going, though, I also think about shifts in the strategy for policy. So maybe Yamaguchi-san, you can talk to me a bit on your take of Prime Minister Takaichi's policies. What do we think is likely to get announced? When? How do you see it affecting the long-term growth outlook for Japan?Takeshi Yamaguchi: [The] Japanese government publishes growth strategy report and the basic policy on fiscal management or honebuto policy in June every year. But I think this year's, you know, documents will be pretty important because these are the first documents under the Takaichi administration.And these documents will set the direction of economic policy by Takaichi-san, Sanae Takaichi. Or Sanae-nomics. Compared with Abenomics, I think Takaichi-san focuses more on the supply side issues, you know, supply domestic investment. While Abenomics focused more on the exit from deflation, focusing on demand side policy, particularly, you know, monetary easing.In the growth strategy report, the focus will be strategic investment in 17 strategic areas, including AI, especially, you know, AI robotics, semiconductors, defense and space, cybersecurity, and content industry and so on.Another important point of Sanaeconomic system, there's overlap between these strategic investment areas and national securities. The government will also update its defense strategy by the end of this year, and there'll be a increase in the defense budget target. The focus will be a lot on, you know, I think, dual use technologies, and also resilience of supply chains going ahead.Another important point is, I think there will be a change in the budget formation process. I think, under deflation there's effectively cap on non-social security spending. But I think this government will likely allocate budget, you know, for multi-investment. So, I think the budget process will be more flexible. And they put more emphasis on the initial budget rather than the supplementary budget.So, I think, these documents will be pretty important to monitor going ahead. But overall, I think, the government – yes, they do care about the market conditions. They will likely avoid massive, you know, expansion. But I think a slight expansion, especially in the area of strategic investment is likely to happen.Seth Carpenter: Very helpful. Alright, that's the end of the panel. Thank you very much to my colleagues. And this is where I have to shift back into podcast mode to say thank you for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a colleague or friend today. Thank you very much, everybody.

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