Podcasts about Boj

Today, a look at the steep JPY sell-off post Bank of Japan rate hike as the market was gunning for a firmer commitment to BoJ hiking and a stronger US dollar was already weighing in the background. Also, the BoE surprised slightly dovishly but moved to stabilize the long end of the UK yield curve. Also, we look at the pivotal situation for US stocks as we navigate triple witching ahead of next week's action. This and more on today's podcast, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy Links John's latest The FX Trader piece looking at the Bank of Japan reaction, Bank of England meeting and USDJPY technicals. The Real Eisman Playbook podcast poo-poohs the idea that AI security concerns are the real driver of Anthropic's call for a "slowdown".  And FTAlphaville is out joining the dots with its latest AI cross-commitment diagram showing how all of the AI companies financing is interconnected. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

S&P futures are indicating a stronger open today following a broadly higher Asia session. Semiconductor stocks drove gains in South Korea and Taiwan. In Greater China, AI pureplays and hardware names extended Thursday's strength. Japan was also higher, riding a positive wave post-BOJ rate decision. European markets are pulling back slightly after midweek rallies.Companies Mentioned: Exxonmobil

Today, a look at the hawkish FOMC meeting yesterday, especially Fed Chair Warsh's positioning of the rate hike yesterday as merely removing accommodation, together with the sharp market reaction that has been surprisingly quick to unwind in places. Is this in respect of the incoming BoJ, the deflation of oil prices or because we are entering a new pivot zone for interest rates and possibly the US dollar? This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Meta's Zuckerberg isn't for the AI slowdown, prefers "evaluators" DeepQuarry questions Anthropic's pre-IPO claims of its profitability (first portion of post available for free) Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Boj s nadváhou a obezitou pozná mnoho žien. Zmeny na tele prichádzajú v rôznych životných obdobiach – či už počas dospievania, v tehotenstve, po pôrode alebo v menopauze. Často sa popri tom stretávame s mýtmi o chudnutí, pocitmi zlyhania, výčitkami a predsudkami okolia.Moderátorka Babsy Jagušák v štúdiu Najmama.sk privítala doc. MUDr. Adelu Penesovú, poprednú slovenskú lekárku a vedkyňu z Biomedicínskeho centra SAV a Petra Gylaníka, farmaceuta z lekárne Dr. Max, ktorý sa venuje vzdelávaniu a pacientskemu poradenstvu. V diskusii s nimi sa v dnešnom podcaste dozviete:čo presne spôsobuje obezitu a akú rolu zohráva genetika verzus naše prostredie a emócie;ako rozpoznať hranicu medzi bežnou nadváhou a obezitou a kedy je čas vyhľadať odbornú pomoc lekára či lekárnika;prečo u žien prichádza k priberaniu a zadržiavaniu hmotnosti v obdobiach ako sú tehotenstvo, po pôrode či počas menopauzy;aký hrozivý je nárast obezity u detí a mládeže a aké vážne následky to môže mať na ich zdravý vývoj do dospelosti;prečo nefungujú krátkodobé diéty ("jojo efekt") a prečo je dôležitá komplexná a trvalá zmena životného štýlu, dostatok spánku a psychická pohoda;aké možnosti modernej liečby obezity dnes existujú, ako fungujú inovatívne lieky a prečo ich užívanie musí byť pod dohľadom lekára;ako vám s chudnutím môžu pomôcť priamo v lekárni a aké služby (napríklad meranie zloženia tela, viscerálneho tuku a konzultácie) pacientom ponúkajú;prečo by ste sa mali vyvarovať "zázračným" doplnkom výživy a nebezpečným liekom na chudnutie z internetu;a v závere si povieme, aký je prvý a najdôležitejší krok, ak sa rozhodnete so svojou váhou a zdravím niečo urobiť.

Imogen Bachra shares her take on to watch in the week commencing 14th of September. * Friday's US inflation data was sufficiently firm that it feels like a 25 basis point hike from the Fed next week looks like the path of least resistance. Our base case is still that this is a one and done move. We still see labour market weakness emerging into 2027, which could ultimately pave the way for rate cuts, but clearly persistently elevated energy prices present an upside risk to this view. * We have the BoJ at the end of the week that's likely to follow suit with a 25 basis point hike at its meeting, we think, but we're sceptical that Governor Ueda will offer much forward guidance beyond that – instead repeating what he said in July, that in-depth deliberations will be held at every meeting. From a markets perspective, this may be a little bit disappointing with participants left wondering what exactly it is that Treasury Secretary Besson knows that they do not. This might not be the sort of hawkish surprise that they were looking for. * The Bank of England could be the only major central bank not to raise rates next week, though we do look for the guidance to formally acknowledge upside risks to the inflation outlook, which would mark quite a hawkish shift from the July MPR, but it would reflect the tone from some of the central bank speakers at the Treasury Select Committee hearing last week. This could ultimately pave the way for a rate hike to be delivered in November, which is now fully priced by markets, but regular listeners will know that that's been our base case since March. More important from a markets perspective at the BOE meeting could be the annual vote on QT, and we see a greater risk than consensus that the pace is  maintained at £70bn compared with consensus that it will be reduced to £50bn. This could add another bearish catalyst for longer yields, which are now well above our long held 5.25% 10-year target. Global factors have been the main driver of that rise in yields, but we have long seen domestic reasons, both on the more hawkish monetary policy side, and the more bearish fiscal policy side that can't keep yields at these levels. * While we're on central banks, it's worth reflecting on the ECB last week that it was hawkish enough that we now see the short term terminal rate at 3% up from 2.5% previously. We think they will get there in the first half of 2027. But it's important to note that that's driven solely by credibility in the face of an energy shock, despite weak evidence so far of any contagion to core inflation. We did also upgrade our 10-year bund target from 3.3 to 3.6% both on the more hawkish ECB outlook, but also a bearish structural outlook into the end of the year. * Away from central banks, in the UK, it's also the big data week. It perhaps takes on a little bit less importance when it coincides with the week of the central bank decision, but nonetheless, it's another month of data on the inflation front and the labour market front that will feed into the BoE's assessment of the risks of second round effects. We see headline inflation ticking up. This is largely about energy prices. In fact, core inflation is expected to edge down, albeit that's largely a rounding error more than anything else. It doesn't change the fact that the long-term path we still think is towards higher core inflation into 2027, where we have a peak of 3.1%. Although central banks and inflation risks were the theme last week and probably likely to be the theme in the week ahead, we also remained squarely focussed on fiscal risks too. * Next week brings about a cabinet reshuffle in Japan and we'll most closely be watching whom is announced as the minister of state for economic and fiscal policy. And although there's nothing on the calendar as such, we'll watch any headlines related to potential policies announced in the UK as we near the Labour Party conference, as well as any other announcements from President Trump as we near midterms. Good luck.

Scott Bessent can’t do anything right. He just announced a paltry bond buyback that fell flat with the market responding by pushing rates higher. Bessent also proclaimed that he is “the house” and that people shouldn’t bet against him because he has inside information about what the Bank of Japan is going to do. Interesting. The guy doesn’t know what our central bank is going to do but he has the inside track on the BOJ? The market there is also telling him to get lost. And after he said he would cripple the Iranian regime in a matter of weeks or months with sanctions, the Iranians have been striking back and have now declared that they’re going to cripple our economy. Bessent is going to go down in history as the worst Treasury Secretary we’ve ever had. Resources Bloomberg Television: Bessent Tells Yen Traders ‘I Am the House Now’ CNBC International Live: ‘I am the house’: Scott Bessent’s challenge to traders Bloomberg Television: Commodities Bull Market Is Underpriced: 3-Minutes MLIV ABC News: Oil Prices Climb Over $100 per Barrel as War in Iran Continues Bloomberg Television: US Treasury to Buy Up to $6 Billion in Long-Dated Debt Fox Business Clips: ‘SLINGSHOT’: Treasury’s rate move gets BRUTAL reality check IMF: Did the Plaza Accord Cause Japan’s Lost Decades? U.S. Department of the Treasury: Treasury Launches Unprecedented Campaign Against Iranian Regime on Economic D-Day The Hill: Iran reignites Strait of Hormuz fight as US tightens squeeze NBC News: Diesel hits all-time high of $6 per gallon, and just about everything will cost more Brookings: What is yield curve control? npr: Trump’s controversial nominee drops bid to head vital data-gathering agency U.S. Department of the Treasury: Henry Morgenthau, Jr. (1934 - 1945) United States Holocaust Memorial Museum: Henry Morgenthau Jr. npr: The IRS slashed its staff. One result? More taxes going uncollected UNFTR Resources Video: The Treasury Secretary Who Can’t Get It Right Essay: Scott Bessent Can’t Stop Failing. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibilitySupport the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The tide on central bank tightening has turned and we see the September hikes from the ECB, Fed, and BoJ as the start of a broad tightening cycle.    Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research   This podcast was recorded on 11 September 2026.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka Fisher, Director in Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss potentially spillovers for the FX market from the accelerating bond market sell-off. How will upcoming BoJ and Fed policy meetings impact the JPY and USD?

Hannah discusses with Rajat a packed few weeks of central bank policy decisions, focusing on the Fed's increasingly likely rate hike and its implications for bonds, equities and currencies, alongside the latest outlooks for the ECB, RBA and BoJ. They also see other opportunities for investors in semiconductors.You can read our latest Weekly Market View today here.Speaker(s):Hannah Chew, Portfolio Strategist, Standard Chartered BankRajat Bhattacharya, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

Iran warned that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone from the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, and said it has the ability to strike ships participating in the US blockade.Yemeni forces reportedly launched ballistic missile and drone attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, including around Khamis Mushait, Abha airport and King Khalid Airbase.Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US goods took effect as scheduled, while US President Trump called for a halt to US sales of Bombardier aircraft.USD/JPY extended declines and briefly dipped beneath the 153.00 level as the yen continues to strengthen amid BoJ rate hike expectations; Japanese GDP was revised higher and wage growth beat expectations. APAC stocks traded mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Jul), US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Elderson, BoE's Bailey, Ramsden, Greene & Taylor. Supply from the Netherlands, Germany & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us Fan MailDollar/yen drops to 154, supported by BoJ hike bets, but move looksstretched. Oil jumps again on ME newsflow; risk of $100 WTI oil price isrising. Markets prepare for Thursday's buybacks and US data. Goldstabilizes at $4,400, bitcoin drops below $80k again.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week: US market focus is squarely on the inflation data. Fed Chair Warsh clearly overweighted the inflation data relative to current employment trends in his reaction function, and Governor Waller's comments in the last week reiterated that point. The strength in the employment report on Friday has raised the bar for the Fed not to hike, but it still feels like a close call that will hinge on the inflation data. For anyone that missed it, following Chair Warsh's comments at Jackson Hole and the upside revisions to the PCE data, we have now revised our base case call and expect the Fed to hike in September. A 25bp hike by the ECB feels all but certain: recent communication and the July meeting account leave little doubt that the Governing Council is prepared to tighten again. The more consequential question is what comes next. With policymakers showing little appetite for strong forward guidance, the ECB is likely to preserve maximum optionality amid continued uncertainty over energy prices, inflation persistence and the durability of growth. Next week's data schedule (Sentix investor confidence, the third estimate of Q2 GDP and accompanying employment data) should give a clearer read on the composition and resilience of euro are growth heading into the second half of the year. In the UK, renewed upside pressure on yields this week brought a renewed focus on the fiscal risks. New Chancellor John Healey is set to give a keynote speech on Monday outlining the government's economic agenda, which could prove another crucial moment for the gilt market to reassess fiscal risks. We're still watching Japan, both in terms of potential fiscal and monetary policy shifts, but there is nothing specific on the calendar next week that is set to move the needle on either. We're more focussed on the week after, eyeing a potential government re-shuffle and of course the long-awaited BoJ meeting, where we now  expect a hike to be delivered.

Crude futures kept afloat but with gains limited following the previous day's two-way trade and with a lack of major new geopolitical developments.USD/JPY recouped some losses after sliding as the yen recently outperformed due to intervention risks and hawkish BoJ rate hike bets.Norway's USD 2.3tln sovereign wealth fund manager has proposed an overhaul of its government bond portfolio that could see it cut its holdings of US Treasuries by about USD 80bln, as it looks to other types of debts to try to boost returns, according to FT.APAC stocks took impetus from the positive global risk sentiment and lower yield environment; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (Jul), EZ Retail Sales (Jul), US Jobs Report (Aug), Canadian Jobs Report (Aug). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey & ECB's Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us Fan MailYen rallies after hawkish BoJ and dovish Fed remarks; Waller eyed next.Yields slide after Fed's Williams calms nerves, lifts stocks. Oil prices easeback after Trump hints Iran strikes won't last “too long”. Gold jumps asdollar remains on the backfoot.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Today, we look at the hefty risk-off tone across markets, if with a few notable exceptions, as risk assets are justifiably spooked by the further ramping in global bond yields. We argue that the situation feels like it has entered a zone of instability that could see volatility rising further in the near term, not that it has risen that much yet. Elsewhere, a lot of macro and FX coverage, especially on the aggressive spike in front-end Japanese rates to price in a more hawkish BoJ, and yet the yen is sluggish in its response. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Ole's latest piece pointing out that many integrated oil majors have outperformed many of the top market cap companies and AI hyperscalers on both 1-year and 5-year time horizons. A Reuters article says G20 should consider raising trade barriers to China for its unfair policies. This sparked an great conversation on X between Steve Hou and the WSJ's Greg Ip on the nature of the US-China relationship and the utility of pursuing a Chinese currency revalution (higher) after Greg Ip wrote an op-ed in favour of the world forcing a CNY reval.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.  

US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st.IRGC said it targeted US bases in Iraq, with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain while the IRGC added that two tankers were blown up after striking mines in the Strait.Global equities continue to pull back, with NQ futures falling below 29k.USD firms against most peers; NZD underperforms after RBNZ fails to impress hawks, JPY outperforms after BoJ hawk Takata.USTs are flat, whilst Bunds and Gilts are pressured by elevated gas prices.Crude takes a breather following another night of US-Iran hostilities; metals feel no reprieve.Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders (Jul), ADP Employment Change (Aug), New Zealand Terms of Trade (Q2), BoC Announcement, Fed Beige Book. Comments from Fed's Williams, BoC's Macklem & Rogers. Earnings from Broadcom, Hewlett Packard Enterprise & Snowflake.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japanese officials that rate hikes are needed, according to NHK; a Japanese MoF official expects the BoJ to act on the economy and not on US influence.Nikkei 225 traded indecisively; USD/JPY traded rangebound, and 10yr JGB futures followed the declines in global peers.Crude futures remained underpinned after gaining yesterday; UKMTO received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Indian Ocean off Oman.APAC stocks traded with a mild negative bias amid higher prices and yields; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales (Jul), Global S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug), EZ CPI Prelim (Aug), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), JOLTS Job Openings (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), US Midterm Primary Elections in Massachusetts, Speakers include Fed's Barr & ECB's Vujcic. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Dell & Palo Alto.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japanese officials that rate hikes are needed, according to NHK; a Japanese MoF official expects the BoJ to act on the economy and not on US influence.European and US equity futures are pressured by elevated yields; US 10yr (4.78%) holds at highs, whilst the UK 10yr (5.25%) resides at levels not seen since the GFC.USD firmer against all G10 currencies with yields rallying on continued energy upside.Crude futures continue recent strength; UKMTO received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Indian Ocean off Oman. Marisks reported that two oil supertankers were hit by projectiles.Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), JOLTS Job Openings (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), US Midterm Primary Elections in Massachusetts, Speakers include Fed's Barr & ECB's Vujcic. Earnings from Dell & Palo Alto.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us Fan MailDollar pulls back despite increasing probability of September Fed hike. Oil prices and Treasury yields rise as Middle East hostilities escalate. Yen hovers around 160 per dollar as Bessent ramps up BoJ pressure. Wall Street slips amid US-Iran tensons and rising Treasury yields.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Things are getting weird – looks like someone is panicking. The Dumber side of finance – let’s dig in. A big week ahead – major earnings could move markets. – Gold, Bitcoin moving on a lower USD. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - Things are getting weird - looks like someone is panicking - The Dumber side of finance - let's dig in (5 top items) - Cold War and Hot War - Canada, China and Iran - Economic "D" day - no one cares - Saying goodbye to Dolly Parton Markets - Gold, Bitcoin moving on a lower USD - Oil starting to settle - Big Week - NVDA earnings on tap - all eyes! STUPID IS WHAT STUPID DOES - A DHU One-Time Series On The Dumber Side of Finance 1) LOWER BEEF PRICES - Trump plans temporary tariff relief for certain ground-beef imports as U.S. beef prices remain near record highs. - The plan would allow up to 300,000 metric tons of discounted imported ground beef over roughly 90 days. - Supposedly this will reduce the prices for consumers - Ranchers and several farm-state Republicans are pushing back, arguing cheaper imports could hurt domestic producers. ---- Question: Tariff reduction is going to reduce prices for consumers? Didn't someone say that tariffs are paid by the companies and exporting countries??? 2) IRAN SANCTIONS - BIG THREAT, LIMITED IMMEDIATE ACTION - Treasury warned countries doing business with Iran that they could face secondary sanctions, calling it an "economic D-Day." - New sanctions hit about 60 individuals, companies and vessels, but major Chinese financial institutions were not targeted. - China remains the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, making Chinese banks the potential pressure point. - Treasury says sanctions could expand into gold, digital assets, aviation, shipping and other sectors. 3) TREASURY TRIES TO TAME LONG-TERM YIELDS - Treasury will at least double the maximum size of certain long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation. - The announcement briefly knocked nearly 10 basis points off the 30-year Treasury yield. - Critics say this treats the symptom rather than the cause - huge deficits, heavy issuance and persistent inflation risk. ------Bessent had to come out on Friday to say "at least" $4B - as bind yields moved back up -------Maybe there is a concern over the $40TRILLION debt we have amassed as a country? 4) SOMEONE GOT LONG BONDS AT THE RIGHT TIME - TLT took in roughly $529 million of net inflows on August 18, one day before Treasury's surprise bond-buyback announcement. - The next day Bessent doubled planned buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasurys, immediately pushing long yields lower. - TLT jumped about 1.7% on the announcement. - No public evidence identifies a single buyer - but the timing of the unusually large inflow is certainly worth noting. 5) DOLLAR GETS HIT BY THE BOND RESCUE - The dollar weakened as investors questioned Treasury's expanded bond-buyback strategy. - The concern is that suppressing yields without fixing fiscal problems simply transfers pressure from bonds to the currency. - The 30-year yield has remained elevated despite Treasury intervention. - Bitcoin rallied as investors looked toward alternatives to traditional fiat assets. - PEOPLE: This is NOT Quantitative Easing - Just a move to buy longer dated and issue more short dated WALMART FLASHES A CONSUMER WARNING - Walmart U.S. comparable sales grew just 2.6%, its slowest pace in roughly six years and below expectations. - Shares dropped sharply after the report. - E-commerce remained strong, while store traffic and discretionary spending showed more weakness. - Walmart raised full-year guidance but gave a softer-than-expected third-quarter outlook. - As America's biggest retailer, Walmart's slowdown is an important read on the broader consumer. VENEZUELA HAS OIL - BUT CAN'T SHIP IT FAST ENOUGH - Tankers are waiting as long as 30 days to load Venezuelan crude because of aging ports, outages and equipment failures. - Venezuela has struggled to push exports much higher despite rising production and strong demand. - The Jose terminal handles about 70% of exports and has become a major bottleneck. - Venezuela's ports may impose a physical ceiling on production growth until infrastructure is upgraded. JANE STREET'S $15 BILLION AI HIT - Jane Street reportedly lost about $15 billion in July as AI and technology positions moved sharply against the firm. - A major source of the damage was exposure to concentrated AI trades that were forced to unwind. - Jane Street posted its first negative month of trading revenue since 2016. - As a reminder: this episode highlights how quickly crowded AI trades can overwhelm even sophisticated risk-management systems. LEAVITT LEAVES THE WHITE HOUSE - Karoline Leavitt resigned as White House press secretary after returning from maternity leave. - Trump said she would become a top outside adviser and prominent Republican voice heading into the midterms. - Looking fior a kinder and gentler replacement? HA! probably not OFF THE HIGHS NVDA - 9% off high AMD - 19% off high AVGO - 23% off high MU - 23% off high TSM - 13% off high MRVL - 28% off high INTC - 35% off high NVIDIA - THE MARKET'S NEXT STRESS TEST - Nvidia reports Wednesday - now basically a referendum on the entire AI trade. - Blackwell demand and hyperscaler spending are the key tells. - A strong guide could quickly reset tech sentiment. - A miss would raise the uncomfortable question: how much AI optimism is already priced in? - Revenue expected around $92.1 billion, up roughly 97% year over year. - Adjusted EPS expected around $2.09, nearly double last year. - Data Center revenue expected around $85.7 billion - still the main engine. - Biggest watch items: Blackwell demand, Vera Rubin timing, China sales and hyperscaler capex. - Options imply roughly a 5%-6% move after earnings. - Discussion .... NVIDIA - AI SERVERS GETTING EVEN MORE EXPENSIVE - Major Nvidia customers have reportedly been warned that AI server prices could rise more than 15% beginning early next year. - Higher memory costs are the main driver, affecting Grace Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin systems. - Nvidia is effectively passing higher component costs through despite gross margins around 75%. - ALWAYS INTERESTING THESE ANNOUNCEMENTS SO CLOSE TO EARNINGS - HMMMM CANADA-U.S. TRADE FIGHT GETS WORSE - Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. goods after Washington imposed new 50% tariffs on Canadian imports. - Canada's tariffs range from 15% to 50% across roughly 700 products and begin September 8. - Canada also announced a C$7.5 billion support package for affected businesses and workers. - Another escalation that could hit autos, manufacturing costs and cross-border supply chains. HOUSING - BUYERS KEEP DISAPPEARING - July new-home sales plunged 10.5% to a 607,000 annual rate, the weakest since January. - Median new-home price fell to $393,800, the lowest in four years. - Mortgage rates are still around 6.8%, keeping affordability under pressure. - Only 5.2% of consumers said they expect to buy a home in the next six months - the sharpest drop in more than five years. JACKSON HOLE - WARSH GETS THE MICROPHONE - Kevin Warsh speaks next week at Jackson Hole. - Markets want to know whether sticky inflation, oil and tariffs are enough to keep the Fed in tightening mode. - Long yields are already doing some of the Fed's work. - One sentence could move bonds, the dollar and stocks. - Friday, August 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET. --- BUT - Didn't Warsh say less communication is more? They can't keep put of the spotlight. PCE - THE FED'S FAVORITE INFLATION READ - "The Fed's preferred gauge/measure of inflation" - July PCE lands next week. - Watch for tariff, energy and goods inflation creeping back into the numbers. - A hot print revives hike fears. - A soft print gives risk assets some breathing room - especially with long yields already elevated. THE CONSUMER VS. THE AI BOOM - MORE EARNINGS COMING - Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Marvell give another read on corporate AI spending. - Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Best Buy and Ulta test the other side of the economy. - The setup is getting interesting: companies are still spending aggressively on AI while consumers look increasingly selective. - If that gap widens, it could become one of the bigger market themes into the fall. AROUND THE WORLD EUROPE - QUIETLY GETTING INTERESTING - European stocks slipped this week, but money has started flowing back into the region. - Euro-zone business activity is growing at its fastest pace this year, while Q2 earnings growth for STOXX 600 companies is running surprisingly strong. - CONCEPT: Europe may be turning into the anti-U.S. trade - less AI concentration, cheaper valuations, but more sensitivity to energy. JAPAN - BETTER DATA, WORSE MARKET - Japan's Nikkei lost about 4% this week even as the economic data improved. - August manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.1, with new orders rising at the fastest pace since 2018. - Semiconductors and AI-related demand are helping drive the factory rebound. - Stronger growth also keeps the BOJ rate-hike discussion alive - good economy, potentially tougher market. BIG PHARMA - CHINA'S WEIGHT-LOSS GOLD RUSH - Lilly, Novo Nordisk and others are aggressively targeting China's obesity market, where obesity rates are projected to top 65% by 2030. - China bans direct prescription-drug advertising, so companies are using subway ads, gyms, influencers and "disease awareness" campaigns instead. - China's GLP-1 market could reach roughly 30 billion yuan over the next 5-7 years. - Interesting regulatory gray area: education campaigns that look a lot like drug advertising without actually naming the drug. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

A.M. Edition for Aug. 21. WSJ's Alex Frangos explains the combination of factors that fueled a multi-day bond selloff and what to watch for in the weeks to come. Plus, the Trump administration targets the Bar Association's ability to accredit law schools. And James Rundle from the Dow Jones Risk Journal podcast looks at a White House initiative that could see private companies join the fight against foreign criminal groups. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

For nearly thirty years, extremely low interest rates in Japan have made the yen one of the world's most important funding currencies. Investors have borrowed cheap yen and invested the money in higher-yielding assets around the world. But as the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, could this huge flow of money begin to reverse? In this episode, Skip Montreux and Samantha Vega explain how the Japanese yen carry trade works, why it has helped support global financial markets, and why changes in Japanese monetary policy could create serious risks for investors around the world. Skip and Samantha start by explaining the basic idea behind a carry trade. Investors borrow money in a currency with a very low interest rate — the funding currency — and then invest that money in currencies or assets offering a higher yield. For decades, Japan's rock-bottom interest rates have made the yen an attractive currency to borrow. They then look at where this borrowed money goes. Carry trade investors can put their capital into higher-yielding currencies, government and corporate bonds, global equities, real estate, and other assets. Large institutional investors can also use leverage and foreign exchange derivatives to amplify relatively small differences in interest rates. Next, Skip and Samantha discuss why the Bank of Japan is changing the situation. After years of extremely low and sometimes negative interest rates, the BOJ has begun raising rates as Japan moves away from its long period of deflation. Higher Japanese interest rates make borrowing yen more expensive and reduce the potential profit from the carry trade. They also look at Japan's enormous retail foreign exchange market and the financial nickname ‘Mrs. Watanabe'. Finally, they examine what can happen when the carry trade begins to unwind. The market trouble of August 2024 showed how leveraged investors can be forced to sell liquid assets, including US technology stocks, when markets suddenly move against them. With the yen historically weak, interest-rate differences changing, and governments intervening in currency markets, the future of the yen carry trade has become an important issue for global investors. This episode helps listeners understand how competitive advantage can disappear when technology and markets change. In this episode, you will learn: What a carry trade is and why the yen is used as a funding currency. Why Bank of Japan interest-rate increases are changing the carry trade. What ‘Mrs. Watanabe' means in financial markets. What happens during a carry trade unwind. Why changes in the yen can have consequences far beyond Japan. Do you like what you hear? Become a D2B Member today for to access to our -- NEW!!!-- interactive audio scripts, PDF Audio Script Library, Bonus Vocabulary episodes, and D2B Member-only episodes. Visit d2benglish.com/membership for more information. Follow Down to Business English on Apple podcasts, rate the show, and leave a comment. Contact Skip, Dez, and Samantha at downtobusinessenglish@gmail.com Follow Skip & Dez Skip Montreux on Linkedin Skip Montreux on Instagram Skip Montreux on Twitter Skip Montreux on Facebook Dez Morgan on Twitter RSS Feed

Brian Szytel reviews a rotation-heavy market day with the Dow up 120 points, the S&P 500 up about 0.25%, and the Nasdaq slightly higher, as equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted amid big moves in pharma and some late earnings from tech/AI. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 7 bps to about 4.64%, following remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about shifting issuance toward the short end and using it to buy back some long-end debt; while the $20B buyback is small versus the $5T in 20–30 year Treasuries, the signal suggests an effort to lower long-term rates, potentially at odds with a Fed under Warsh aiming to let markets tighten or loosen. He also explains Japan's debt dynamics: while gross debt/GDP is ~240%, netting BOJ holdings and government assets brings it closer to ~80%, though higher JGB rates could raise debt-service costs and pressure the yen and BOJ policy. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:21 Market Close Recap 00:56 Treasury Buyback Shock 01:58 Fed Versus Treasury 03:46 Japan Debt Question 04:07 Net Debt Breakdown 05:06 Rates Yen and BOJ 06:11 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Média a sociální sítě nabízejí neustále záběry vyschlých potoků a poloprázdných nádrží. Voda nám ale nejvíc chybí tam, kde ji nevidíme – v půdě nebo v lesích. „S klimatickou změnou je přesně tento problém. Většinu času ji nevidíme, nepociťujeme, takže veřejnost lze aktivizovat jen ve chvílích, kdy ji cítíme na vlastní kůži. Bojím se, že až začne pršet a přijde podzim, tak ta akutní potřeba pomine,“ říká v Interview Plus vědec Daniel Kortus, zakladatel platformy Klimatomluva.Všechny díly podcastu Interview Plus můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

Boj o rozpočet na příští rok začíná. Ministryně financí Alena Schillerová (ANO) dnes jedná s dalšími ministry o požadavcích pro jejich rezorty. Očekávanou výši schodku zatím neupřesnila. O kolik překoná ten letošní? Hostem Ptám se já byl ekonom, člen Národní rozpočtové rady Petr Musil. Ministryně financí Alena Schillerová (ANO) se chce se šéfy dalších rezortů bavit o výdajích a úsporách na příští rok. Předpokládá přitom, že ministři přijdou s vyššími požadavky, než bude možné uspokojit. Schillerová očekává i debatu o tom, kolik peněz dávají jednotlivá ministerstva neziskovému sektoru. Podle premiéra Andreje Babiše (ANO) bude součástí vyjednávání také otázka růstu platů státních zaměstnanců nebo možnost mimořádné valorizace důchodů. Oba se už dříve shodli, že hlavními prioritami rozpočtu by ale měly být investice do dopravní infrastruktury a do zdravotnictví. Očekávanou výši schodku ministryně financí zatím neupřesnila, návrh státního rozpočtu předloží vládě do konce srpna. Premiér už v červenci řekl, že by schodek rozpočtu pro příští rok měl být významně pod 400 miliard korun. To zkritizovala opozice, podle které bude pokračovat růst deficitů na úkor budoucnosti. Dvacítka ekonomů zároveň v otevřeném dopise poslancům varovala před rozvolňováním rozpočtových pravidel. Letos stát plánuje schodek 310 miliard korun. Přes 400 miliard se dostal pouze za covidové pandemie v roce 2021, kdy dosáhl 419,7 miliardy korun. Mezi 300 a 400 miliardami byl deficit zatím pouze v letech 2020 a 2022. Vláda Andreje Babiše přitom deklarovala, že bude pracovat na postupném snižováním deficitu a zlepšování hospodaření státu. Dosavadní plán vývoje veřejných financí připravený předchozím kabinetem Petra Fialy (ODS) ale ministryně financí označila za past. Schválila proto nový plán, který počítá s postupnou konsolidací až od roku 2028. „Důležitý je konec fiskálně-strukturálního plánu, a to je v roce 2030. Což znamená po dalších sněmovních volbách. Takže možná, že tam bude nějaká past pro příští vládu,“upozornil v Ptám se já člen Národní rozpočtové rady Petr Musil. „Možná, že si tu past takto budeme posouvat, až do ní spadneme ale všichni. Protože jestli s veřejnými financemi nic neuděláme, tak ve finále na to fakt doplatíme, doplatí na to ti ekonomicky a sociálně nejslabší.“ Jsou všechny plánované výdaje skutečně nutné? A máme vládě věřit, že od roku 2028 začne rozpočtové schodky snižovat? -- Podcast Ptám se já. Rozhovory s lidmi, kteří mají vliv, odpovědnost, informace. Sledujte na Seznam Zprávách, poslouchejte na Podcasty.cz a ve všech podcastových aplikacích. Archiv všech dílů najdete tady. Své postřehy, připomínky nebo tipy nám pište prostřednictvím sociálních sítí pod hashtagem #ptamseja nebo na e-mail: audio@sz.cz.

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Checkout The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/about/ Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Peter Boockvar, CIO at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners, to unpack recent inflation data and why yields remain resilient, with the curve steepening as the two-year dips while the 10-year holds around 4.65%. Boockvar argues the Fed must weigh PPI alongside CPI, noting persistent producer pressures and limited pass-through that squeezes margins and hiring, contributing to weak consumer confidence and “running to stand still” wages. They discuss why the S&P 500 continues to levitate, attributing much of earnings and market leadership to massive AI CapEx spending and its spillovers into financials. The conversation previews key retail earnings (Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, TJ Maxx, Walmart) and highlights strong energy stocks amid high gasoline prices and inventory drawdown risks. They also debate U.S.-China AI competition, pressure on OpenAI/Anthropic business models, and Japan's yen intervention, rising odds of a BOJ rate hike, and potential repatriation flows. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

The US and Japan intervened to support the yen for the first time in nearly 30 years, but did it fix anything? Jessica Hinds joins Fitch's Fixed Interests to explain why the yen's weakness is now a story about fiscal credibility, real yields and BOJ

Raymond and Hannah discuss the market implications of a prolonged stalemate in the Middle East conflict, expectations for policy decisions by the Fed, ECB, and BoJ, and potential investment opportunities across markets.You can read our latest Weekly Market View today here.Speaker(s):- Hannah Chew, Portfolio Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank - Raymond Cheng, Chief Investment Officer, North Asia, Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

The Strait of Hormuz authority rejected US claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV.USD/JPY saw a bout of mild pressure late in the session after Bloomberg sources said that the Takaichi government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike.US equity futures mixed, with the NQ giving back some of Wednesday's gains.DXY flat; NOK softens as the Norges Bank leaves rates unchanged but signalled progress on inflation.Fixed income benchmarks muted heading into US PPI and a US 30-year auction.Energy benchmarks steadily fall as geopolitical headlines quieten down.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/08), PPI (Jul). Speakers include Fed's Hammack & Barkin. Supply from the US. Earnings from Applied Materials.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Pakistan's key mediator has held a second meeting with Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi and is seeking to extend the 60-day truce, according to an informed source cited by Al Arabiya.Strait of Hormuz authority rejected US claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV.Crude futures initially declined but clambered off worst levels, with price action indecisive amid the absence of any major geopolitical updates overnight.USD/JPY saw a bout of mild pressure late in the session after Bloomberg sources said that the Takaichi government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike.APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as the region took its cue from the mild positive handover from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Jun/Q2), Trade Balance (Jun), Swedish/Spanish Inflation Final (Jul), EU Industrial Production (Jun), US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/08), PPI (Jul), Norges Bank Policy Announcement (Aug). Speakers include Fed's Hammack & Barkin, Norges Bank's Bache. Supply from the US. Earnings from Applied Materials, RWE, Antofagasta & Maersk.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the week across mortgages, rates, and precious metals. He opens with United Wholesale Mortgage, explaining why he believes Matt Ishbia should resign after the company hedged the balance sheet of an acquisition target it didn't own and never won — a misstep that produced a six hundred million dollar loss and forced a rescue from Oak Tree on onerous terms that leave common shareholders at the back of the line. Chris contrasts that with Rocket's standout quarter and lays out his broader housing view: investment banks hold this market together until the IPO fees are booked, then step back, setting up a potential correction next year and a general decline in home prices of ten to twenty percent by 2028. From there the conversation turns to the return of financial repression — short-end yields pushed down while the long end reacts to deficits and inflation — and why, with debt approaching forty trillion, he considers Fed independence a fiction and the Treasury the dog to the Fed's tail. Chris also unpacks the Bank of Japan's thirty-day repo with the Fed, why it lit a fire under gold and silver, and David Kotok's idea of using euro-denominated US credit default swaps to benchmark gold. He closes on taxing wealth over income, the erosion of fiscal credibility, and his gold book research into thirteen hundred years of Byzantine monetary stability.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro1:08 — Why Matt Ishbia should resign from UWM2:30 — The Oak Tree rescue and what it means for shareholders3:31 — Mortgage earnings: PennyMac, loanDepot, Rocket4:23 — Is UWM going to be sold?5:43 — Health of the broader mortgage industry6:50 — Seven percent rates and where volume is coming from7:30 — What the Fed does next, and the long end8:20 — "Misery on the eights" — is the timeline accelerating?9:20 — Housing correction: 10–20% by 202810:40 — The return of financial repression12:00 — Why the Treasury benefits, and the shift to T-bills13:06 — "The Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail"13:40 — The dollar, foreign central banks, and gold reserves14:20 — The Bank of Japan repo transaction explained15:14 — What Warsh does if the FOMC wants a hike16:30 — Inflation, diesel exports, and the energy squeeze17:34 — David Kotok on benchmarking gold with credit default swaps18:40 — Why fiscal fear flows into gold19:30 — How far away is a US debt restructuring?21:04 — Taxing wealth instead of income22:42 — What cutting the deficit would actually do to rates25:15 — Back to the BOJ: why it forced gold and silver higher28:00 — What if Japan doesn't take the bonds back?28:48 — Foreign central banks are selling Treasuries29:47 — Does the US care about gold the way the rest of the world does?32:10 — Bessent and the K-shaped economy33:12 — Housekeeping: viewer question episode33:50 — Parting thoughts

The uncertain oil outlook remains a key theme, while markets await the US CPI report for fresh Fed clues. In the US, we share our forecasts for the coming CPI and retail sales releases and our Fed outlook. In Europe, we preview the central bank meeting in Norway, August sentiment data and discuss the heatwave. In Japan, we examine the BOJ outlook, with fresh minutes to be released and following recent FX intervention to support the yen.  Across Asia, we preview key data ahead and the RBA policy meeting in Australia. Chapters: US: 02:24, Europe: 07:23, Japan: 11:13, Rest of Asia: 16:31.

„Mám strach z poraženců, z falešných proroků, ze zpráv od spiklenců, z levného obroku. Bojím se vlků v zádech i ovcí dokola, tužeb po Eldorádech jimž nejde odolat,” takto začíná písnička Ostraka ze stejnojmenného alba hudebníka Michala Prokopa, za které získal hlavní cenu Anděl.Všechny díly podcastu Osobnost Plus můžete pohodlně poslouchat v mobilní aplikaci mujRozhlas pro Android a iOS nebo na webu mujRozhlas.cz.

Na podzim bude jasno o tom, jak se změní financování veřejnoprávních médií. „Bitva o televizi a rozhlas je o tom, kam má směřovat tahle země a jestli vítěz bere vše a může si dělat, co chce,“ říká moderátor ČT Martin Řezníček. Vláda Andreje Babiše (ANO) má jasno v tom, že chce zrušit současný model veřejnoprávních médií. Koncesionářské poplatky má nahradit financování ze státního rozpočtu. Konkrétní návrh, o kterém by poslanci měli jednat už na podzim, ale známý není. „Do dneška nevíme, co přesně v tom návrhu bude. A bude záležet na každém slovu, na každé čárce. Bude to bitva o cizelování každého slovíčka. Ale že něco chtějí udělat, je naprosto jasné. A vsadil bych si na to, že i udělají,“ odhaduje jedna z hlavních tváří České televize, moderátor Událostí Martin Řezníček, který byl hostem podcastu Mediální cirkus. Veřejnoprávně Zaměstnanci ČT i Českého rozhlasu plány vlády kritizují a bojí se o ohrožení nezávislosti. Politici podle nich nepřekládají dostatečné pojistky dalšího nezávislého fungování obou médií. Na Kavčích Horách i na Vinohradech proto vznikla protestní akce Veřejnoprávně a proběhla už i první výstražná stávka. Řezníček součástí iniciativy Veřejnoprávně není, kolegy ale podporuje. „Jsem ochoten zajít daleko,“ říká k tomu. Snahu změnu financování bere jako snahu o omezení nezávislosti veřejnoprávních médií, i když politici tvrdí opak. „Nebyl jsem přímo u toho, ale slyšel jsem, že i koaliční politici jsou schopní neformálně říci v Poslanecké sněmovně, že vlastně nejde o financování veřejnoprávních médií, že jde jenom o zpravodajství, aby fungovalo lépe ve prospěch vládnoucí většiny. Když vám tohle někdo přizná jako koaliční politik, tak si pak říkáte: ‚Opravdu vám jde o blaho téhle země?‘“ říká Řezníček a pokračuje: „Jedna věc je, co vám politici řeknou v rozhovoru. Druhá, jak útočí téměř denně na sociálních sítích, na tiskových konferencích vlády. A jak od těchto politiků máte potom brát jejich tvrzení, že jim nejde o oslabení televize a rozhlasu, když na ně permanentně útočí?“ Boj za poplatky nezávislost neohrožuje Řezníček kromě moderování zastává v televizi řadu funkcí. Je zástupcem šéfredaktora zpravodajství, šéfem zahraniční redakce a také šéfem moderátorů. V letech 2012 až 2017 byl zpravodajem ČT ve Spojených státech amerických. I když se zaměstnanci televize do bitvy o poplatky veřejně vložili, podle Řezníčka to nijak neovlivňuje jeho práci, fungování redakce ani nezávislost zpravodajství. „Nemám pocit, že by tam docházelo k nějakému ohrožení editoriální nezávislosti. Rozhodně nikdo neříká: ‚Tohle budeme hrát, tohle nebudeme hrát z toho důvodu, že to někomu uškodí nebo někomu pomůže.‘ Vůbec nic takového se tam neděje,“ tvrdí. A ovlivněn prý rozhodně není ani on sám. „Nestalo se mi jedinkrát za dobu kariéry, kdy jsem moderoval Události, komentáře, nebo jsem potom zastupoval, když odešel Václav Moravec, v nedělní debatě, že bych nepoložil otázku jenom proto, že bych se bál, jak to dopadne s televizí nebo s rozhlasem. To bych se ráno nepodíval sám na sebe do zrcadla.“ Kritika od Andreje Babiše Sám Řezníček je častým terčem kritiky politiků. Andrej Babiš ho ještě jako šéf opozice opakovaně kritizoval i od sněmovního řečnického pultíku. Nemůže mu odpustit prezidentskou debatu, kterou Řezníček moderoval v lednu 2023 právě mezi Babišem a Petrem Pavlem. Andrej Babiš na debatu tehdy přišel bez ohlášení na poslední chvíli. „S Andrejem Babišem jsem od té prezidentské debaty nijak nekomunikoval. Nevím, co si o mně myslí. Asi to nebude nic hezkého. Ale můžu soudit jenom z jeho veřejných vystoupení v Poslanecké sněmovně, kde jsem se dostal, nemyslím, že úplně právem, do stejné skupiny lidí, jako je Miroslav Kalousek a někteří ostatní, kde, když je příležitost kopnout do České televize, tak kopne,“ říká k tomu populární moderátor a pokračuje: „Ale útoky od populistů mě se nijak nedotýkají. Opravdu ne. A možná mě ta prezidentská debata, nejen průběh prezidentské debaty, ale to, co tomu těsně předcházelo, a potom hlavně co následovalo, možná nějak zocelilo. Já si z toho opravdu nic nedělám.“ Jak vnímá útoky politiků ve studiu? Mají ještě smysl veřejnoprávní média? A jak zpravodajství ČT pomohla konkurence v podobě CNN Prima News? -- Mediální cirkus, podcast Marie Bastlové o dění na mediální scéně. Zajímá ji pohled do redakcí, za kulisy novinářské práce – s předními novináři i mediálními hráči. Sledujte na Seznam Zprávách, poslouchejte na Podcasty.cz a ve všech podcastových aplikacích.

Cítím, že v Americe nastupuje autoritářský režim a nedokážu se s tím smířitDo podcastu Tekutá společnost přišla byla aktivistka a spluzakladatelka RadioFree America Natálie Kocábová. Kdy přesně se rozhodla mapovat dění v USA aveřejně o trumpismu informovat? Bojí se o budoucnost demokracie v Americe au nás? Co ji nabíjí a jak současné aktivity dopadají na její soukromý život?Pořad Tekutá společnost můžete sledovat každý čtvrtek na: • Respektu: https://www.respekt.cz/tekuta-spolecnost a v mobilní aplikaci Respekt• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4ozoQdrXPXo7WYKIIh9rMD • Apple Podcastech: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tekuta-spolecnost/id1888505574• YouTube: ⁠ https://www.youtube.com/respekt⁠

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING Bank in London, discuss dollar-yen near- and mid-term dynamics. The combined shift in the dollar view following the July 29 Fed meeting, stretched long positioning and joint US-Japan FX intervention were the perfect catalysts for a sharp move lower in dollar-yen, yet the market is already questioning whether the move can be sustained. Childe-Freeman and Turner both see a risk of further joint FX intervention, which should keep dollar-yen bulls in check for now, while US economic data and the associated Fed outlook, along with the BOJ's September policy decision and Japan's fiscal credibility, may determine how bullish investors can be on the yen into 4Q. They also discuss non-dollar ways to express the carry trade, including via bullish Norwegian krone and Australian dollar views.

This week, our Global FX Strategists unpack the fallout from the FOMC for the dollar, as well as implications from another round of Japan FX intervention against a BoJ hold. We also look at AUD's reaction to recent local data and implications from the BoE meeting for GBP.   Speakers: Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategy Kunj Padh, Global FX Strategy    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5388109-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5390436-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the fallout for the FX market from this week's Fed, BoJ and BoE policy meetings. How have the latest developments impacted the outlook for USD/JPY?

Markets start to question Fed credibility, fiscal issues stay in focus for the UK, while Japan's monetary and FX policy come into the spotlight. We discuss the Fed Chair's mixed messages and preview next week's labour market release. In our special UK segment, we reflect on the BoE's "dovish" hold and discuss fiscal plans under the new PM. In Asia, the BOJ and JPY intervention are in focus, and we also look ahead to the RBI and regional CPI data ahead. Chapters: US: 02:49 Europe: 13:00, Japan: 25:19, Rest of Asia: 30:08.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the yen has substantially overshot equilibrium and the US views excess yen volatility as unhealthy, while he added that the yen is very undervalued and that Japan may have intervened in currency markets on Thursday.Nikkei sources said Japan's government and BoJ intervened in the FX market yesterday by buying yen and selling dollars, while desks conducted rate checks.BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected, through an 8-1 vote, with board member Takata the dissenter who proposed a 25bps rate hike; little move in Japanese assets on the announcement.After-hours US earnings saw Amazon (AMZN) rise almost 10% whilst Apple (AAPL) fell over 6%.APAC stocks were mostly higher following the tech-inspired momentum stateside; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8%.Looking ahead, highlights include French/Italian/EU Inflation Flash (Jul), German Unemployment Rate (Jul), Canadian GDP (May), US University of Michigan Final (Jul). Speakers include BoJ Governor Ueda, BoE's Pill, Fed's Hammack, Logan & Kashkari. Earnings from AbbVie, Chevron, Credit Agricole & NatWest. Scope Ratings update on Switzerland rating.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US and Israel are considering a land blockade of Iran to increase economic pressure, senior Israeli sources told The Telegraph. The plan could involve urging neighbouring countries and regional partners to restrict border crossings and trade.Iran's IRGC said two offending tankers were hit and stopped, and four offending tankers quickly changed course. Additionally, the IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and any transit and movement will be possible only with the coordination of the IRGC Navy. BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected, through an 8-1 vote, with board member Takata the dissenter who proposed a 25bps rate hike. Little move seen in Japanese assets following the announcement and Governor Ueda press conference. US equity futures are firmer, with Amazon surging pre-market (+12%) after reporting faster AWS growth.Fixed income benchmarks are mixed and way off best levels as energy prices rebound following recent reporting of a land blockade and hit tankers (Brent +0.3%).Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian GDP (May), US University of Michigan Final (Jul). Speakers include BoE's Pill, Fed's Hammack, Logan & Kashkari. Earnings from AbbVie & Chevron. Scope Ratings update on Switzerland.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Please join Sphia Salim for a discussion with the global rates team on the implications of all the central bank decisions taken this week. We will review the exceptionally uncertain Fed meeting and debate the outlook for 2y & 10y UST yields. We will also discuss the takeaways from the guidance provided by the BoE and BoJ. The call took place on Friday, July 31st, 2026.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami and Danny Moses discuss rising global yields and stress points in markets, focusing on Japan's weakening yen, deteriorating bond market, and risks around Japan's role as a major US Treasury holder and potential carry-trade unwind, with BOJ and Fed meetings ahead. They note August's tendency toward volatility and how attention may shift from strong earnings to macro concerns as AI-driven CapEx pressures free cash flow at hyperscalers, raising valuation questions and fears of open-source competition. They preview key earnings including Apple (seen as a defensive AI conduit despite a rich valuation), Microsoft, Meta, and major energy firms, which may post strong results but avoid political blowback. They discuss mixed consumer signals from Capital One, AmEx, and retailers, reiterate a constructive longer-term view on gold tied to Fed policy, and share updates on Moses's podcasts, Substack work, and a veterans charity event. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Roberto Rios aka Peruvian Bull, is a macro analyst and author of the highly acclaimed "Dollar Endgame" series. Reporting on Japan as the canary in the coal mine for the global economy.› https://x.com/peruvian_bull› https://www.youtube.com/@peruvian_bullPARTNERS

Preview of the Fed, BOE, BOJ and MAS and a segment discussing market risks with special guest Vijay Sundaram, Global Head of Front Office Risk & Control. We discuss the Fed and BOE remaining on-hold, US core PCE inflation easing, and the latest on UK fiscal plans. Central banks in Japan and Singapore are in focus; we think both are likely to pause, but it is a much closer call for MAS than BOJ. Special guest: Vijay Sundaram, our Global Head of Front Office Risk, speaks about market risks and how risk management is evolving. Chapters: US: 02:27, Europe: 09:21, Japan: 16:28, Rest of Asia: 20:40.

In the second part of our economic roundtable, Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya join Seth Carpenter to discuss how central banks are balancing sticky inflation, resilient growth and regional policy trade-offs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again today, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, the Chief U.S. Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist, and on the other side of the world, Chetna Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist. Yesterday, we talked about what's supporting growth around the world, especially AI spending in the U.S. and some government spending in Europe, and Asia's role in making all of this happen. Today, we're going to try to dig deeper and go into policy. It's Tuesday, July 21st at 10 am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since the last time we did this in mid-April, I will say the debate around central banks has probably become more complicated. Global growth has held up, probably better than many people expected. And inflation, which picked up a lot, started to recede. But it has not gone away. And some of the forces helping to shape the economy, the AI spending, government spending, that possible upswing in manufacturing, that could keep demand strong, and it might keep pushing inflation higher. So, the question today is, if growth remains resilient, how much room really do central banks have to navigate? Mike, let me start with you because your call for the Fed here in the U.S. is out of consensus, or at least at odds with where the market is pricing things. We talked about the demand going from AI. You pointed out that imports are actually limiting how much domestic demand there is. So, what is the underlying story for inflation in the U.S.? And what does it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: So, our view is that inflation will come down in the U.S. So, we think disinflation will be driven by some payback in energy prices. Some payback from tariffs, which have pushed up goods prices over the last year. And some further diminishment in housing-related inflation, namely shelter. So, we think on a broad-based perspective, inflation has already peaked and will start moving lower. And we think we've seen evidence of this in recent inflation prints. A risk to that, though, is from the demand side of the economy and AI-related inflation in two parts. One, higher software prices, chipflation. So, the pass-through of some of the AI pricing components. Fortunately, here, they're about less than 1 percent of the consumer basket. So, we don't think that there's a great risk, a strong risk, a high risk of AI-related inflation in the consumer bundle. I think the real risk is that maybe we underestimate broad-based demand, animal spirits. And so, you might just see a broad-based increase in inflation from stronger demand. That'll be a little bit harder to see in real times. But our expectation is that inflation moves lower to about 3 percent, by the end of this year and closer to 2.5 percent next year. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks, Mike. And in fact, the most recent inflation report that we just got confirms your perspective that inflation should be coming down. And so, I guess the question then remains: What would it take for the Fed to hike this year if inflation has come down like we've seen? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the answer there is that inflation wouldn't come down in line with our expectations. So, if the view is that energy prices, tariffs, and shelter inflation should provide plenty of offset and bring inflation down, I think the answer is you don't get payback. Explicitly, core goods prices stay elevated. Maybe we get ongoing disruptions in the Middle East that push energy prices higher and create second-round effects. So, I think inflation just lingering at elevated levels could mean the Fed gets brought in to raise rates in September or later this year. We think if they're patient enough, they'll see enough disinflation to keep them on the sidelines. But the risk is disinflation forecast is too optimistic, inflation stays firm, the Fed needs to raise rates. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, what about for you and the ECB? They've already raised interest rates once this year. I think you've got a forecast for them raising interest rates again in September. What could make you wrong about that forecast? What's going to make you convinced that you're right about that forecast? And is there a similar tension that the ECB is wrestling with that Mike talked about for the Fed? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah. I mean, starting with the last part of your question, I think no doubt, very similar tension. Just that, of course, it's less obvious. It's essentially a nuanced European version instead of the loud American version that we always stereotypically think the world looks like. So, essentially, we have here clearly not an AI boom. That, I mean, there's no question. And we have discussed that yesterday. Still, there is certainly the notion that the world demand is not really weak, and some of this will also arrive in Europe. And so, you have that tension between maybe there's more resilience than we had thought, and so inflation will not come down through to slack as much. And so, we might actually add something here in terms of monetary restrictiveness. Now, the other thing that is often forgotten, even though it's blatantly obvious, the starting point is just different. The ECB is running neutral monetary policy by all accounts. I mean, you could say 2 percent is neutral, and now they are 2.25. But, you know, there are ranges of uncertainty around any estimate. And the latest that they published runs – goes from 1.75 to 2;2.5. So basically, even if they were to increase rates to 2.5 in September, you could go with the microphone around the governing council, and you would probably find a lot of people saying, "Well, this is still a neutral policy." That's probably not the case for the U.S. So, I guess this matters here for that debate too. Seth Carpenter: All right. Yesterday we talked about lots of different things, but for Europe, we brought up fiscal policy. How do you think about fiscal policy and how it affects monetary policy? And so, I'm thinking about two channels. One, how much does the ECB care that if they keep pushing up interest rates, they're going to increase the debt service burden for countries that are already facing high debt costs? And second, is fiscal policy going to be the extra impetus for inflation that forces even more rate hikes from the ECB? Jens Eisenschmidt: I guess it depends on who you ask. Certainly, more concerned members in the governing council that would point to exactly that fiscal stimulus as a reason why interest rates have to be increased further from here. The other answer I would give is – probably for now at least, the view on fiscal policy is really model-based. You look at what type of increase in interest rate gets you essentially more fiscal restraint because there's an increase in interest rate bill and so less spending somewhere else. And that gets you basically less stimulus or less growth, I mean, very roughly speaking. I don't think it's a major concern for now. We haven't reached yet interest rates where this would start to play a role. I guess, again, Europe being fragmented as it is, with all the political risk that's around the corner. Think about the elections in France and Italy and Spain next year. That will very likely find itself expressed in spreads. And so, the higher the interest rates are, the larger the spreads could become. Seth Carpenter: So, for each of you, there's clearly a role for inflation. One of the risks we'll talk about maybe is inflation expectations and how maybe there's a big shift in what's going on with inflation. But Chetan, that brings me to you and Asia, because one economy where there unquestionably has been a fundamental shift in inflation and inflation expectation over the past several years is Japan. The Bank of Japan is on this normalization path where they're raising interest rates. Interest rates had been negative and then zero, and now they're gradually raising things up. Inflation has come back to Japan. Markets are looking at what the Bank of Japan is likely to do. Can you tell us a little bit about what our view is for the Bank of Japan this year and next? And what might make them hike interest rates faster than we think? And is there any risk that in fact they hike interest rates slower than we think? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we are expecting BoJ to hike twice from here. The first rate hike is coming up in December of this year, and then another one coming up in June of next year. And then we think that, you know, the underlying inflation trend in Japan is not really that strong. So, while market pricing is for about three more rate hikes instead of two that we are building in our base case. And some of the macro investors are even talking about four more rate hikes. We think the underlying inflation trend warrants a caution and BoJ to go slowly than what the market is pricing in and what the macro investors are saying in. And the key part of our framework on thinking about Japan's inflation is that bulk of the explanation to inflation rise in Japan lies in currency moves. And secondarily, you can look at also the other drivers are more from supply side, which is higher energy prices or food prices. Whereas it's not driven so much by demand. To elaborate further on why it is not driven by demand, when you look at Japan's consumption trend, and if you index it to hundred at pre-COVID levels in September [20]19 then it's currently about 101; i.e., that it's just about 1 percent up over the last seven years. So that's a very tepid trend of consumption demand. And therefore, we don't think that BoJ needs to rush into hike in a more aggressive pace going forward. Seth Carpenter: So, there is this fundamental shift, but boy, it's not on a tear, and so the BoJ can take its time. You know, Chetan, it's hard to wrap up a conversation about the global economy without talking about China. I get the sense that there's not a lot going on with monetary policy, but we did just see a soft Q2 GDP print. So, against that backdrop, what should we be expecting in terms of policy? Is there any monetary policy coming? Or is there going to be some fiscal expansion? Or is China just sort of stuck in this lower gear? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we were also surprised by the soft GDP print. But when you look into the data, actually, it was interestingly doing well on exports. And I mentioned earlier about how the global CapEx trend is helping Asia. It's definitely helping China too. But at the same time, China's domestic demand turned out to be quite weak. And particularly in the areas where we think that the policy response can be providing some help, i.e., infrastructure spend, was also very weak. And therefore, we are expecting that in the back half of the year, you will see the government taking up some fiscal expansion. Not new stimulus announcement, but whatever they had budgeted. They have enough room within that to utilize that budget and actually increase that fiscal spending towards infrastructure. We have about 2 trillion RMB worth of funds available for the government to go ahead and spend in the second half. And then lift that growth trend, which has dipped to 4.3 percent in second quarter to back to 4.6 percent in the back half of the year. Seth Carpenter: You know what? Maybe that's a great place for us to leave it. We've gone around the world again today, but this time focusing much more on policy. In the U.S., the Fed is facing this interesting situation. We think inflation is coming down. The last CPI print went in our favor. And so as a result, our forecast is that the Fed doesn't change policy at all this year. But it's going to come down to the data, and in particular, whether or not Mike and his team are right in terms of where inflation is going. In Europe, the ECB has already raised interest rates once this year. Jens and team are looking for another interest rate hike. The ECB really does seem more sensitive to inflation coming from the energy shock, but there are lots of other crosscurrents that they're paying attention to as well. And then the other major developed market central bank, the Bank of Japan, is on this normalization path. They are in the process of raising interest rates, but Chetan pointed out to us that the growth rate is such that they don't have to be in any sort of hurry, and they can take their time. So, with that, Mike, Jens, Chetan, thank you so much for helping us connect all of these dots. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors to discuss shifting Fed communication under Kevin Warsh, including a push away from strong forward guidance like recent comments from Waller. Emons distinguishes disinflation from deflation, noting a negative month-to-month CPI driven by energy declines but warning energy has already rebounded, making expectations volatile. He highlights “funflation” in categories like recreation and food away from home alongside broad underlying price pressures. The group debates whether AI is inflationary, with Emons pointing to supply-constrained memory prices and AI-related investment as drivers, and discusses IBM's sharp drop after clients shifted CapEx toward servers, storage, and memory. They also cover Middle East Strait closures adding an oil war premium, positioning risks across crude, rates, and equities, yen weakness and potential BOJ action, and heightened volatility and leverage in a “Parabolic Seven” chip/memory cohort that could trigger broader market rotation and tightening financial conditions. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

The Iran deal is dead again, ships are getting hit in the Gulf, and the ten year is back above four point five five. Marty and John sort through the latest Middle East escalation, why both sides actually want the conflict to keep going, and what it means for oil, LNG, and bond volatility. They dig into Japan's thirty year yield highs and the delicate balance the BOJ is walking, Mohamed El-Erian vouching for Bessent's industrial policy in the New York Times, and why the MOVE index might matter more than the absolute rate level. They also cover Circle's bank charter approval, the OpenUSD consortium bringing Wall Street and Silicon Valley together around the digital dollar, and the growing turf war over who gets to run America's strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Brian Szytel recaps markets on June 30, the last day of Q2, noting a strong first half for the Dow and the best Nasdaq quarter since 2020, with tech leading as the Dow rose 136 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% while the 10-year yield increased 8 bps. He highlights the Japanese yen at its weakest versus the dollar in over 40 years (~162), describing the yen carry trade and warning that BOJ interventions (about 11 trillion yen) and rate hikes could trigger volatility like August 2024. He also discusses rising system leverage, with margin debt up 54% year over year to about $1.4T and the risks of triple-leveraged single-stock ETFs for retail investors. Economic data included weaker consumer confidence, stronger JOLTS openings with steady quits, lower Chicago PMI, and softer Case-Shiller home prices (down monthly, +0.7% YoY). 00:00 Market Wrap Q2 Finale 01:32 Yen Weakness And Carry Trade 02:40 BOJ Intervention Risks 03:47 Leverage Rising In Markets 04:22 Margin Debt And Leveraged ETFs 05:51 Economic Data Roundup 06:48 Closing Thoughts And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A.M. Edition for June 16. President Trump's Iran deal may be providing relief for markets, but central bankers are not convinced the inflation spike is over yet, with the BOJ and RBA warning of higher prices for longer. Plus, WSJ tech reporter Georgia Wells details how AI is supercharging deepfake nudes, with more than half of teens having created a nude image, unleashing a new form of bullying amongst kids. And, Iran's World Cup team was ordered to leave the U.S. after their opening match against New Zealand. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices