Podcasts about Boj

Základní část NFL jde do absolutního finiše a sedmnáctý týden odráží aktuální stav ligy v plné nahotě. Některé týmy už mají postup téměř jistý, jiné hrají o přežití a pro pár z nich je každý další snap otázkou celé sezóny. Boj o nasazení, wildcard i poslední naděje outsiderů — tabulky jsou natěsnané a scénáře se mění doslova ze zápasu na zápas.Čekají nás duely, které mají jasný kontext: přímé souboje o playoff, divizní bitvy s obrovským nábojem i zápasy, kde jeden výsledek může přepsat celou situaci v konferenci. Kdo má výhodu? Kdo je pod největším tlakem? A které zápasy stojí za to sledovat s tužkou v ruce?To všechno si projdeme v našem tradičním Studiu, tentokrát výjimečně v úterý od 17:45. Připojte se k nám živě na YouTube — teď už jde v NFL opravdu o všechno.

Original Release Date: November 17, 2025In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: Today, we'll focus on [the] all-important macroeconomic backdrop. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Patriot games are coming. Larry Ellison in the spotlight. Hi Ho Silver and away! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - ELON gets his $$$ - Kids account challenge - Patriot games are coming... Markets - Not much headwinds - EOY approaching - Analysts predicting SP500 for 2026 - 7,500 (12% upside) - More Oracle back and forth - Gold and Silver Elon - Elon Musk's net worth surged to $749 billion late Friday after the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Tesla stock options worth $139 billion that were voided last year - He also recently received a $1T pay plan approval - Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jensen Huang combined - His fortune exceeds the GDP of nations like the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland. - He is richer than every country in Africa by GDP - He is projected by some reports to become the world's first trillionaire by 2027 When did Larry Ellison and Oracle become newsworthy? - Every day in the news.... - Larry Ellison NOW Personally Guarantees Paramount Bid for Warner Bros. - The announcement of Mr. Ellison's personal guarantee is meant to address concerns that the Warner Bros. Discovery's board had expressed about Paramount's original offer. - Helping out sonny-boy? More Oracle - Oracle stock slid after a report that Blue Owl Capital won't back a $10 billion data center for OpenAI. (Michigan) - Oracle has $248 billion in lease commitments for data centers and cloud capacity commitments over the next 15 to 19 years. - Oracle later responded to the FT report, saying the project was moving forward and that Blue Owl was not part of equity talks. EVEN MORE! - Multiple media outlets, including the Associated Press, reported that ByteDance has reached an agreement with Oracle ORCL, Silver Lake, and Abu-Dhabi-based MGX to set up a joint venture for TikTok's US operations. Oracle will hold a 15.0% stake in the new entity, while ByteDance will retain a 19.9% stake. - The important thing her is that TikTok stays as a major tenant of OCI as ORCL needs this cash flow... - Of all of the items, this may be why ORCL stock has bounced te last few days. Congressional Ban - A vote on legislation banning members from owning or trading stocks could get a vote in the new year, according to House leadership and Republican members. - President Donald Trump has said he supports a congressional ban but has pushed back on versions that include the executive branch. - Basically this bill would prohibit the ownership of individual stocks by congress Over to Japan - Bank of Japan raises benchmark rates to highest in 30 years, lifting 10-year JGB yield past 2% - Yen still VERY weak - trading at 157/USD - (problematic) - The BOJ said that real interest rates are expected to remain “significantly negative,” adding that accommodative financial conditions will continue to firmly support economic activity. - The yen weakened 0.25% against the USD after the decision - therefore still dovish and stimulative Economic Numbers - Estimates, partial numbers and best guesses. OH, 2-month averaging as well - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual headline inflation rate and core CPI rate for last month were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, well below expectations. - Due to government shutdown, BLS to make certain methodological assumptions about the prior month's inflation levels. - Those assumptions in the methodology were not clear to economists and were not fully explained in the release. - Here is a big issue: The price changes in October for the OER (owners equivalent rent) appear to have been “set to zero.”  Sports Prediction Markets - Sports is fueling the growth and is forecasted to make up 44% of volume as prediction markets mature. - According to one expert: the fundamental elements of consumer demand and an array of diverse brands looking to meet that demand are clearly in place - Sportsbooks are getting a bit nervous.... First Dell, then... - Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates and his wife, Barbara, committed to seed Trump accounts for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. - Following the Dells' pledge, the funds will be aimed at kids who live in a Connecticut ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. - The Dalio grant will fund $250 per child for approximately 300,000 children in Connecticut. This applies to children who live in a ZIP code where the median income is less than $150,000. About 87% of Connecticut ZIP codes meet that criteria, according to a CNBC analysis of Census Bureau data. - “Ray has joined what we are calling the 50-state challenge,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press conference on Wednesday. - A growing number of companies have announced they would match contributions to Trump accounts for their employees, including BNY and BlackRock. Patriot Games (Hunger Games?) - Trump announced: The Washington Monument will be illuminated with festive lights, a triumphal arc will be constructed and the “Patriot Games” will commence. The games are an “unprecedented four-day athletic event featuring the greatest high school athletes: one young man and one young woman from each state and territory. - Uhhhhhh "And so it was decreed that, each year, the various districts of Panem would offer up, in tribute, one young man and woman to fight to the death in a pageant of honor, courage and sacrifice. (Hunger Games 2012) - What next - PURGE NIGHT? Fed Pick - Now it seems as if it is a 4 person race... - President Trump says "Nowadays, when there is good news, the market goes down because everybody thinks that interest rates will be immediately lifted"; says "I want my new Fed Chairman to lower interest rates if the market is doing well"; says "Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" San Fran Blackout - Alphabet-owned Waymo resumed its robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area Sunday evening after pausing it amid widespread blackouts that had affected their vehicles' behavior. - Waymo said it worked with city officials throughout the blackout and had “proactively” initiated a temporary suspension of its service. - Interesting point there - what happens when grid disruptions for internet with self-driving Angry Shareholders (For a minute) - Tricolor CEO Daniel Chu directed a deputy to send him $6.25 million in bonuses in August, weeks before the company filed for bankruptcy, U.S. prosecutors alleged. - Subprime autofirm that had alleged fraud - This happens all the time - Big issue to keep alert to is the news about "Subprime" WEED - Trump's executive order shifts cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, easing research, banking and tax restrictions and marking the biggest federal cannabis policy change in decades. - Shares of cannabis conglomerates were down following the announcement, likely from worries of new competition from international companies. - NOT legalization - NOT for recreational use... - Banking, Institutional capital ..... OpenAi - Beggars cup continues - OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon.com Inc. and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer's effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp. - The deal under discussion could value OpenAI north of $500 billion and see it adopt Amazon's Trainium chip, a person with knowledge of the matter said, asking to remain anonymous to describe private negotiations. - Talks, however, are at a preliminary stage and terms could change, the person added. High Ho Silver and Away! - Silver up 135% YTD - Gold up 70% - Best year since strongest annual performance since 1979 for Gold - 1970's was inflation, USD weakening, Energy crisis. - What is similar/different now? (Big difference is buying up (China, Poland, Turkey, India) Light menu - Darden Restaurants will roll out a new lighter portion entrées menu at all Olive Garden locations in January, the company announced during its quarterly earnings call last Thursday. - Citing affordability: "Olive Garden has seen a double-digit increase in affordability perceptions from guests who order from the lighter portions menu and an increase in frequency among these guests, which should help build traffic over time," Cardenas said. - Sooooo 0 due to high costs, Americans are cutting back on food? - If it were for weight loss, no need for Oliver garden to cut back on portions as most inedible anyway... Copper - Copper prices topped $12,000 a ton for the first time, extending the metal's recent bull run as mine outages add to concerns about supply. - The threat of US import tariffs on the metal has also been an important factor pushing up prices this year, with copper piling up in American warehouses. - Industry analysts have said that much of the richest and most easily accessible mining resources are now exhausted, and experts are warning that the market is on the cusp of a major deficit. Jim Beam - Bourbon maker Jim Beam is halting production at one of its distilleries in Kentucky for at least a year as the whiskey industry navigates tariffs from the Trump administration and slumping demand for a product that needs years of aging before it is ready. - Jim Beam said the decision to pause bourbon making at its Clermont location in 2026 will give the company time to invest in improvements at the distillery. The bottling and warehouse at the site will remain open, along with the James B. Beam Distilling Co. visitors center and restaurant. - The percentage of U.S. adults who say they consume alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest by one percentage point in Gallup's nearly 90-year trend. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner) FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Daniel Lam discusses the latest rates decisions from the ECB and the BOJ, how the USD-Index has been recovering, and the positive correlation between the USD and US equities. “Cut to the Chase” will return on Friday 02-Jan-26.Speaker: - Daniel Lam, Head of Equity Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

Il quadro di riferimento settimanale a cura del Team Advisory di Ersel per la settimana del 22 dicembre 2025. I principali temi:la chiusura dell'anno 2025la decisione della BoJ di alzare i tassile attese di ulteriori tagli dei tassi da parte della Fedl'IA che ha fatto parlare di lei tutto l'anno e sarà presente anche nel prossimo 2026la debolezza del dollaroil contesto valutativo complesso che apre il 2026Restate aggiornati e buon ascolto!l presente podcast è destinato esclusivamente a scopi informativi/ di marketing non sostituendosi al prospetto informativo o ad altri documenti legali di prodotti finanziari ivi eventualmente richiamati. Nel caso, si prega di consultare il prospetto dell'OICVM/documento informativo e il documento contenente le informazioni chiave per gli investitori (KID) prima di prendere una decisione finale di investimento che può essere effettuata solo previa valutazione dell'adeguatezza del servizio o dello strumento finanziario rispetto al profilo individuato con il questionario MiFID. Solo la versione più recente del prospetto, dei regolamenti, del Documento chiave per gli investitori, delle relazioni annuali e semestrali del fondo può essere utilizzata come base per decisioni di investimento. Il presente podcast non costituisce né un'offerta né una sollecitazione all'acquisto, alla sottoscrizione o alla vendita di prodotti o strumenti finanziari o una sollecitazione all'effettuazione di investimenti. Ersel ha verificato con la massima attenzione tutte le informazioni rappresentate nel presente podcast e compiuto sforzi per garantire che il contenuto di questo podcast sia basato su informazioni e dati ottenuti da fonti affidabili, ma non garantisce della loro esattezza e completezza non assumendosi alcuna responsabilità. Ersel non si assume alcuna responsabilità circa le informazioni, le proiezioni o le opinioni contenute nel presente podcast e non risponde dell'uso che terzi potrebbero fare di tali informazioni, né di eventuali perdite o danni che possano verificarsi in seguito a tale uso. Il presente podcast può fare riferimento alla performance passata degli investimenti: i rendimenti passati non sono indicativi di quelli attuali o futuri. Le indicazioni e i dati relativi agli strumenti finanziari, forniti dalla Società, non costituiscono necessariamente un indicatore delle future prospettive dell'investimento o disinvestimento. È vietata la riproduzione e/o la distribuzione del presente podcast, non espressamente autorizzata.

Análise semanal de mercado e os impactos no mundo RPPS, com destaques:No exterior: Payroll e CPI nos EUA, assim como as decisões de política monetária do BCE e BoJ, ditaram o rumo dos negócios.No Brasil: Ata do Copom e Relatório de Política Monetária foram o foco dos agentes.  

News Connect（ニュースコネクト）あなたと経済をつなぐ5分間1日1つ、5分間で、国際政治や海外のビジネスシーンを中心に、世界のメガトレンドがわかる重要ニュースを解説。朝の支度や散歩、通勤、家事の時間などにお聴きいただけるとうれしいです。▼新著『プロ目線のPodcastのつくり方』の購入は⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠こちら⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠から！⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://amzn.asia/d/61gIBJF⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠▼『プロ目線のPodcastのつくり方』が、読者が選ぶビジネス書グランプリ2026（ビジネス実務部門）にノミネートされました。一票をぜひ、よろしくお願いいたします！⁠⁠https://entry.business-book.jp/vote⁠▼出演：野村高文（Podcastプロデューサー／Podcast Studio Chronicle代表）https://x.com/nmrtkfm⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠▼支援プログラム「Chronicleサポーター」については、こちらをご参照ください。https://support.chronicle-inc.net/support/⁠https://note.com/t_nomura/n/n43e514e703b4▼参考ニュース：Yen weakens against peers after BOJ raises interest rateshttps://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/fragile-yen-tenterhooks-ahead-boj-2025-12-19/Yen Weakens as BOJ Lacks Clarity on Future Hikes: Analystshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-19/yen-weakens-as-boj-lacks-clarity-on-future-hikes-analysts-sayJapan finance minister warns of action against any excessive forex https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-finance-minister-warns-action-against-any-excessive-forex-moves-2025-12-19/データに飲み込まれる世界、聖域なきデジタル市場の生存戦略(経済産業省)https://www.meti.go.jp/policy/it_policy/statistics/digital_economy_report/digital_economy_report1.pdf▼Podcast Studio Chronicle公式サイトhttps://chronicle-inc.net/

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode, Chris Whalen breaks down why Kevin Hassett may have blown his chances for Fed Chair by walking back Trump's views, discusses Kevin Warsh as the emerging frontrunner, and explains his reform proposal to return to a decentralized Fed with 15 district banks focused solely on sound money. He reveals why Trump's rhetoric about interest rates is backfiring (pushing the 10-year UP instead of down), predicts a home price correction in 2027-28, and explains why 3% inflation is now the new target. Whalen also discusses why gold and silver are still in early innings, how commercial real estate pain is being quietly resolved in the background, why good bank numbers mask concerning private credit risks, and answers a viewer question about BOJ rate hikes potentially triggering a broader correction.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   https://international-economy.com/TIE_Su25_Whalen.pdfTimestamps:00:00 Welcome Chris Whalen01:10 Kevin Hassett: Did he blow his chances for Fed Chair?03:38 Reforming the Fed: Decentralized model vs FDR's changes04:11 How decentralization would change Fed policy06:08 Fed must be independent of President, not Congress07:44 Post-1935 power concentration with Fed Chair08:11 How centralization distorted monetary policy09:17 Has the Fed been acting like its own hedge fund?10:30 Home price correction coming in 2027-2811:14 Subscribe reminder11:52 Trump's rate talk pushing yields UP not down12:56 Advice to Trump: Talk about growth and jobs, not rates14:09 Kevin Warsh as emerging frontrunner for Fed Chair15:17 Scrap the dual mandate, focus on sound currency16:41 CPI print this week: 3% is the new target17:23 Raising conforming limits encourages more inflation18:42 Gold, sound money, and what Treasury should do20:14 Is sound money viable?21:33 Roosevelt's New Deal legacy and today's problems22:53 Silver all-time high, gold north of $4,300 - still early innings24:22 Commercial real estate pain and which banks are exposed27:10 Private credit, NDFIs and why good bank numbers are concerning29:37 Inflation driving everything in New York and beyond30:22 Viewer question: BOJ rate hikes and impact on risk assets31:44 Wrap up, year-end predictions preview and where to find Chris

Today, a look at AI stocks trying to get back their stride, Trump's DJT stock now becoming a nuclear fusion play and thoughts on what exactly can stop the yen from weakening when the market continues to play the currency as an emerging market currency after today's BoJ hike, with weakness in the currency coinciding with new 26-year highs in the 10-year JGB yield, which has ripped higher through 2.00%. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

After Thursday's comeback driven by CPI data and Micron, investors contemplate a BOJ rate decision and earnings from Nike and FedEx. Consumer sentiment data is due after the open.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see ​schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0131-1225) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The BoJ hikes interest rates to levels not seen for 30 years, causing yields to spike to multi-decade highs. Governor Kazuo Ueda says the central bank will continue to tighten should the economy move in line with forecasts. After a 16-hour summit, European Union leaders have agreed on a €90bn loan to Ukraine after failing in negotiations to unfreeze Russian assets. Nike scores a top and bottom line beat but the results are marred by poor sales in China, dragging the sports apparel giant's shares down.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

US President Trump's administration initiated a multi-agency review of NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 licenses for sales to China, according to sources cited by Reuters.US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and will deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.European bourses are mixed whilst US equity futures are broadly firmer, with outperformance in the NQ.DXY is firmer, whilst the JPY underperforms; the BoJ hiked rates by 25bps as expected, though Governor Ueda avoided explicitly guiding future policy.Global fixed benchmarks generally pressured but with price action fairly muted.Crude benchmarks trade muted as EU agree on Ukraine loans; XAU trades rangebound after failing to break above USD 4350/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Consumer Confidence (Dec), US Employment Trends (Nov). Speakers include ECB's Lane & Fed's Williams.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where the major indices gained following softer CPI data and strong Micron earnings, while the attention overnight turned to the BoJ.USD/JPY edged higher alongside the positive risk appetite and despite the BoJ decision to hike rates, as widely expected, and with no mention of FX-related concerns.US President Trump's administration initiated a multi-agency review of NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 licenses for sales to China, according to sources cited by Reuters.US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and will deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.1% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jan), UK PSNB (Nov), UK Retail Sales (Nov), GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec), Canadian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Consumer Confidence (Dec), US Employment Trends (Nov), and CBR Announcement. Speakers include BoJ's Ueda, ECB's Cipollone, Lane & Fed's Williams.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

En Capital Intereconomía hemos repasado las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa. Asia ha cerrado con subidas tras el buen dato de inflación en EE. UU. y la subida de tipos del Banco de Japón, mientras Wall Street celebra la moderación del IPC. En Europa, el Ibex 35 ha superado los 17.100 puntos, impulsado por el BCE y la referencia inflacionista estadounidense. En el primer análisis de la mañana, Ignacio Vacchiano, country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares, ha analizado el impacto del movimiento del BoJ, las perspectivas del IPC y el PCE en EE. UU., qué puede hacer la Fed y la temporada de resultados, con el foco en Nike y FedEx. El programa ha incluido el habitual repaso a la prensa económica. En la entrevista, María Canal, portavoz de la representación de la Comisión Europea en España, ha abordado la continuidad del Consejo Europeo, las claves del Plan de Vivienda Asequible presentado por la Comisión y el nuevo paquete de automoción.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Sarah Campos e Tomás Goulart comentam, no episódio desta semana, os principais acontecimentos no Brasil e no mundo. Nos Estados Unidos, foram enfim divulgados os dados econômicos de outubro e novembro. A taxa de desemprego subiu para 4,6% e o núcleo da inflação desacelerou para 2,6% em 12 meses. A qualidade dos números, porém, foi afetada por problemas de coleta, o que levou o Federal Reserve a indicar que dará mais peso aos próximos indicadores. Na Europa, o BCE manteve os juros estáveis e elevou suas projeções de inflação e crescimento. No Reino Unido, o BoE reduziu a taxa em 0,25% após votação apertada, sinalizando aproximação do juro neutro. No Japão, o BoJ elevou a taxa para 0,75% e segue aberto a novas altas. Na China, os dados de atividade voltaram a decepcionar, com destaque para vendas no varejo e crédito às famílias. No Brasil, a Ata do Copom e o Relatório de Política Monetária foram os principais destaques. O Banco Central reconheceu incerteza sobre o mercado de trabalho, mas retirou a sinalização de inflação acima da meta no horizonte relevante, reacendendo a possibilidade, ainda dependente do cenário, de um corte em janeiro. No campo político, a pesquisa mostrando Flávio Bolsonaro competitivo aumentou a volatilidade e trouxe dúvidas sobre sua capacidade de reduzir a rejeição entre independentes. Nos EUA, o juro de 2 ano fechou 4 bps, e as bolsas tiveram desempenho misto – S&P 500 +0,10%, Nasdaq +0,59% e Russell 2000 -0,86%. No Brasil, o jan/29 abriu 23 bps, o Ibovespa caiu 1,43% e o real desvalorizou 2,3%. Para a próxima semana, as atenções se voltam para a divulgação do PIB dos Estados Unidos no terceiro trimestre. Já a agenda doméstica inclui o IPCA-15 na terça-feira e tende a ser mais esvaziada devido às festas de fim de ano.

Rendimentos globais sobem após o BOJ elevar juros para 0,75%, maior nível em mais de 30 anos, e indicar continuidade do aperto se o cenário permitir.

The final major week of the year in macro is in the books. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins The Weekly Briefing to explain why the latest US inflation report should be taken with a “bucketful of salt,” while reviewing the year-end moves from the BoE, BoJ, and ECB. He reviews the latest moves from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the ECB, and talks about why a growing Chinese trade surplus has a corresponding deficit that could present a key risk to global macro stability.Plus, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses one of our most prominent calls for 2026: why, despite recent wobbles, the AI-driven equities bubble will continue to inflate.

Send us a textUS inflation slows notably, corroborating dovish Fed cut bets. Dollar holds steady as data may be distorted by US shutdown. BoE lowers rates, signals slower reductions ahead; ECB stands pat. Yen tumbles as traders sought clearer clues about BoJ's next moves.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

The ASX 200 finished the week up 40 points to 8628 for a 70-odd point loss for the week. Banks were firm, CBA up 1.8% and WBC up 1.3% as the Big Bank Basket rose to $274.68(+1.3%). MQG rose 1.5% despite a $35m fine for reporting short sellers. Insurers better. Financials generally better too. ZIP up 3.3% and CGF rising 3.1%. REITs gained slightly as CHC jumped 2.3% and GMG up 0.5%. Tech was a winner today, something we haven't seen for a while. WTC up 3.2% and XRO rising 2.3%. The All -Tech Index rose 1.5%. Industrials generally were firm, JBH up 2.3%, SGH rising 0.9% and SIG having a good day on a broker upgrade.Resources were mixed, BHP dropped 1.2% with FMG under pressure off 3.2% despite a good week for iron ore. Gold miners found their feet with GMD up 1.6% and VAU rising 1.3%. Base metals stocks also in demand, MLX up 4.4% and DVP rising 4.1%. WDS unchanged and STO off 2.1% with uranium stocks bouncing off lows. LOT up 18.8% and PDN up 9.3%. Even BOE rose 11.4%.In corporate news, CTD remain suspended and announced a 'skinny' update. 4DX soared 21.5% on a new US contract, WTC rallied after White was cleared of wrong doing by the board. ABB fell 1.4% after warning the competition regulator's new voice interconnection rates would cut earnings.In economic news, nothing locally, the BoJ raised rates to the highest in 30 years by 25bps. No surprise as inflation stays elevated.Japan raises rates as expected. Japan up 1.0% HK up 0.6% and China up 0.5%US futures – DJ down 93 Nasdaq up 2910-year yields steady at 4.76%.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

From Micron’s AI-fueled rally to a surprising CPI reading, markets are recalibrating ahead of 2026. Kyle Rodda, Senior Financial Market Analyst, capital.com discuss the implications for U.S. interest rates, corporate earnings in a challenging consumer landscape, and the evolving policy signals from the ECB, BOE, and BOJ. Produced/Presented: Ryan HuangSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Headline news for December 19, 2025: TikTok’s US buyer found, Syria–Kurdish talks race to an end-year deadline, Australia prepares a nationwide vigil after the Bondi shooting, Bangladesh erupts in protest, and Japan’s inflation steadies ahead of a pivotal BOJ decision. Synopsis: A round up of global headlines to start your day by The Business Times. Written by: Howie Lim / Claressa Monteiro (claremb@sph.com.sg) Produced and edited by: Claressa Monteiro Produced by: BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media Produced with AI text-to-speech capabilities --- Follow Lens On Daily and rate us on: Channel: bt.sg/btlenson Amazon: bt.sg/lensam Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/lensap Spotify: bt.sg/lenssp YouTube Music: bt.sg/lensyt Website: bt.sg/lenson Feedback to: btpodcasts@sph.com.sg Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Mark To Market at: bt.sg/btmark2mkt WealthBT at: bt.sg/btpropertybt PropertyBT at: bt.sg/btmktfocus BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks BT Market Focus at: bt.sg/btmktfocus BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/podcasts BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ue, 90 mld € di prestiti a Kiev senza gli asset russi: Bce senza sorprese, Boj alza i tassi; TikTok salva negli Usa, Oracle tra gli investitori; Mps-Mediobanca, Giorgetti nega interferenze; Gli ETF migliori e peggiori del 2025. Puntata a cura di Elisa Piazza - Class CNBC Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

19/12 Asia in verde,BOJ alza i tassi di 25 pb ai massimi da 30 anni. Lo yen si indebolisce, decennale sopra 2% per la prima volta dal 2006. Tik Tok c'è l'accordo per cessione a Jv americana. Oracle +5% in pre-market. Futures a WS prudenti, scadenza tecnica record per 7.100 mld dollari di opzioni. Nike -10%. Il mercato digerisce il dato distorto sull'inflazione. Ieri Micron +10%, corsa di chip e Big Tech. Sale anche Bitcoin: venerdì prossimo scadono 24mld$ di opzioni. Consiglio Ue: via libera prestito Ucraina da 90 mld tramite eurobond. Banche centrali, fine ciclo? BCE rivede al rialzo crescita e inflazione ma lascia opzionalità, BOE taglia 25pb ma la barra è alta per tagli futuri. Del Vecchio rileva 30% de Il Giornale, Pirelli si modifica l'azionariato, focus su banche e Nexi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rendimentos globais sobem após o BOJ elevar juros para 0,75%, maior nível em mais de 30 anos, e indicar continuidade do aperto se o cenário permitir.

Bitcoin prices recovered on Thursday, December 18, bouncing back from the previous day's decline after inflation figures came in lower than expected.~This episode is sponsored by iTrust Capital~iTrustCapital | Get $100 Funding Reward + No Monthly Fees when you sign up using our custom link! ➜ https://bit.ly/iTrustPaulGuest: Tim Warren, Host of Investing BrozInvesting Broz Youtube ➜ ‪‪  @TimWarrenTrades  Follow on Twitter ➜  @timsta6753   00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: iTrust Capital01:40 Inflation breakdown04:00 Missing data04:30 Tariffs are starting to show up in goods06:30 Crypto sentiment07:00 Bitcoin analysis08:45 4-year cycle10:45 Crypto bills delayed13:30 Bitcoin January prediction15:50 Bitcoin MACD19:10 Tom Lee: BTC could double by January?23:45 BOJ rate hike priced in?26:00 ETH bottom in?28:00 XRP analysis29:45 UNI a buy?32:45 Outro#Crypto #bitcoin #ethereum~Inflation Falls?

En Capital Intereconomía hemos repasado las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa. Wall Street cotiza con dudas ante la financiación de la inteligencia artificial, mientras que en Asia arranca la reunión del Banco de Japón con la atención puesta en el IPC. En Europa, el Ibex 35 busca el asalto a los 17.000 puntos a la espera de las decisiones de los bancos centrales. En el primer análisis de la mañana, Hernán Cortes, socio fundador de Olea Gestión, ha explicado la reacción de bonos y dólar al discurso de Donald Trump, y qué esperar del BCE, el BoJ y el Banco de Inglaterra. También ha abordado cómo trabajar las duraciones en renta fija, la importancia de una gestión flexible, activa y global, y la evolución del precio del petróleo, que extiende ganancias tras el bloqueo de Trump a Venezuela. El programa ha incluido el habitual resumen de prensa económica. En la entrevista, Gustavo de Arístegui, diplomático, ha analizado el discurso de Trump contra los migrantes y el sistema político anterior, sus declaraciones sobre la situación económica y la máxima tensión en Venezuela tras el bloqueo total anunciado por Estados Unidos.

Ukrainian President Zelensky said there is still no ideal peace plan as of now, and the current draft is a working version; Russia's Ryabkov said they are ready to make efforts to overcome disagreements relating to the Ukraine crisis.China Securities Times commentary noted that China should set a positive yet 'pragmatic' 2026 GDP growth target with leeway, while researchers are said to be divided between an around 5% or 4.5%-5.0% growth target for 2026.European bourses are broadly lower, with US equity futures also in the red as the NQ continues to underperform.USD awaits data deluge, GBP outperforms following hawkish LFS and PMI & JPY continues gains into BoJ on Friday.USTs trade steady into NFP, Bunds chop on PMI metrics whilst Gilts underperform post-jobs data.Brent dips below USD 60/bbl for the first time since May as geopolitical tensions ease; metals are broadly subdued.Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs (Dec), US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 29 Nov), Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct), Jobs Report (Nov), Retail Sales (Oct), Business Inventories (Sep), NBH Announcement, Comments from BoC's Macklem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today's update, Palvatar breaks down a packed macro week featuring major central bank decisions from the ECB, BoJ, and BoE, alongside key U.S. data including non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and CPI. Global equities show mixed signals as Europe rebounds, Asia struggles with China's slowing economy, and Wall Street stabilizes. Meanwhile, crypto markets dip despite continued institutional adoption and regulatory developments.

Tomorrow's jobs report, Thursday's Nike results and Friday's BOJ decision are weekly highlights, but focus could stay on fast-retreating tech stocks and rising Treasury yields.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0131-1225) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The BoJ Tankan survey showed sentiment of Large Manufacturers was at the highest in four years, which supports the case for a rate hike.European bourses are entirely in the green, with US equity futures also firmer; the RTY outperforms.DXY is a touch lower, whilst the JPY outperforms amidst growing bets of a BoJ hike this week and the Tankan Survey; the Kiwi underperforms after the RBNZ Governor suggested that market conditions have tightened “beyond” what the RBNZ intended.Global bonds are firmer across the board; USTs are currently firmer by c. 5 ticks.Crude benchmarks were initially firmer, but are now mildly lower as traders digest President Zelensky's potential concessions of Ukraine's NATO membership goals; XAU gains.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI (Nov), US Advance Goods Trade Balance (Sep), Australian PMI (Dec), Speakers including Fed's Miran, Williams & RBA's Jones.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ralf Preusser is joined in discussion by Adarsh Sinha and Mark Cabana. We will review the outlook for US rates and the US dollar after this week's FOMC meeting. We also analyse the motivation and implications behind the Fed's new Reserve Management Purchases. Finally, we will also discuss the dramatic repricing of the policy outlook for the RBA, preview next week's BoJ meeting and outline our views on GBP.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities is joined by Chris Jakubowski Head of FI FX Sales to discuss the fallout in the FX markets following the FOMC meeting this week and what this final meeting of the year means for the US dollar going forward. Derek and Chair also look ahead to the final full week of trading next week and discuss the BoE and BoJ meetings. Can the BoJ restore confidence to the JGB market with a rate hike and a message of more?

Join host Elizaveta Gridneva as she sits down with Nicholas Ng of Daiwa Asset Management to unpack Japan's potential shift toward higher interest rates. Together, they explore what a BOJ hike could mean for yields, market sentiment, and the strategies investors across Japan and the Asia-Pacific region are gravitating toward.

To, že jsou investice jako horská dráha, řadu lidí znervózňuje. Podle průzkumů kvůli volatilitě – tedy tomu, že hodnota akcií lítá nahoru a dolů – někteří raději neinvestují vůbec. Bojí se, že o všechno přijdou. Jenže bez tohoto rizika by akcie nenesly ani zisky. Proto by se investor neměl volatility děsit, měl by si ji oblíbit.„Já bych se na volatilitu díval jako na kamaráda, ne jako na nepřítele, kterého musím za každou cenu z portfolia dostat pryč. Ta volatilita mi pomáhá zažehnout v portfoliu nějaký oheň. Bez volatility a výnosu, který k ní patří, by to portfolio zmrazilo,“ doporučuje v podcastu Ve vatě investor Lukáš Nádvorník, který se díky akciím ve 40 letech zajistil na celý život.Český investor má rád stabilitu – spořicí účet, termínované konto nebo dluhopisy. Ví dopředu, kolik přibližně dostane. Akcie jsou oproti tomu méně předvídatelné. „Akcie je vlastně podíl na vlastnictví nějaké firmy. A ohodnocení akcií je citlivé na zprávy na trhu, na nové informace. Tomu odpovídá nějaká míra rizika. Za riziko, které podstupujeme, dostáváme nějakou výnosovou prémii. Jen díky volatilitě můžeme vydělávat hodně,“ vysvětluje Lukáš Nádvorník.*****Ve vatě. Podcast novinářky Markéty Bidrmanové. Poslechněte si konkrétní rady investorů a odborníků na téma investic, inflace, úvěrů a hypoték. Finanční „kápézetka“ pro všechny, kterým nejsou peníze ukradené.Vychází každý čtvrtek. Poslouchejte na Seznam Zprávách, Podcasty.cz nebo ve všech podcastových aplikacích.V podcastu vysvětlujeme základní finanční pojmy a principy, nejde ale o investiční poradenství.O čem byste chtěli poslouchat příště? Co máme zlepšit? A co naopak určitě neměnit? Vaše připomínky, tipy i výtky uvítáme na adrese audio@sz.cz.

APAC stocks were subdued following the lacklustre lead from Wall Street, with markets cautious ahead of the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers.RBA unsurprisingly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, although comments from RBA Governor Bullock at the press conference leaned hawkish.Ukrainian President Zelensky said talks in London were productive and there is small progress towards peace.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.1% after the cash market closed flat on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Oct), US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 22 Nov), JOLTS (Sep), EIA STEO, Speakers including ECB's Nagel, BoJ's Ueda, BoE's Ramsden, Lombardelli, Mann, Dhingra & RBNZ's Breman, Supply from UK & US, Earnings from GameStop.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Wednesday, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve has its December meeting, at which Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to deliver an interest rate cut of 0.25%.~This episode is sponsored by BTCC~BTCC 10% Deposit Bonus! ➜ https://bit.ly/PBNBTCC00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: BTCC00:30 Crypto market cap update01:10 Trump announcement soon?02:10 Kevin Hassett hints at stimmy checks incoming03:30 Hasset 80%04:10 Bloomberg: Is Hassett the right guy as Fed Chair?05:30 BOJ hike in December?06:10 Mohamed El-Erian: Fed vs Japan08:30 April 2020 lows in?09:30 QE begins in January10:00 Mohamed El-Erian: Expect hawkish cut11:15 Recession odds11:50 Bloomberg: Not a good time for long term investing but great for traders13:45 Jamie Dimon admits to debanking15:00 Tom Lee buys more16:40 Paul Atkins: Everything will be tokenized in 2 years17:20 BlackRock files for staked ETH17:45 Solana Breakpoint week18:10 US banks meeting with Senators18:50 Outro#crypto #federalreserve #bitcoin~Fed Meeting Week vs Crypto

Investors are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve decision happening later this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to push through another quarter-point interest-rate cut this week. That is despite growing unease among fellow policymakers that inflation remains too high. In Asia-Pacific, the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision and a raft of Chinese data are the key events in the week ahead. We heard from Mark Matthews, Head of Asia Research at Julius Baer. He spoke to Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong. Plus - in Japan, a slew of economic data was released. In Tokyo, labor cash earnings were released. Stronger wage gains in October bolstered the case for the Bank of Japan to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike at its Dec. 18–19 meeting. However, Japan's economy shrank in the three months through September, the government confirmed in a revised report, giving further justification for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's stimulus package announced last month. For more on what the latest Japan data means for the BoJ, we heard from Bloomberg's Brian Fowler. He spoke to Bloomberg's Shery Ahn and Avril Hong. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the impact on USD/JPY from the upcoming BoJ and Fed policy meetings. USD/JPY has dropped this week as BoJ rate hike expectations have intensified, but will it continue?  

Global bond yields rise amid complicated pictures in the USA and Japan. Treasurys saw yields rise on stronger U.S. jobs data, while deepening expectations of a rate hike by the BOJ sees JGB prices fall. Elsewhere, Netflix has reportedly won the battle over Warner Bros Discovery; and Meta shares rise on reports the company is planning sweeping cuts to its ‘metaverse' unit, a former darling of CEO Mark Zuckerburg.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

APAC stocks were mixed, with the regional bourses mostly rangebound, amid light fresh catalysts ahead of US PCE data.US senators seek to block NVIDIA (NVDA) sales of advanced chips to China for 30 months and would target NVIDIA's H200 and Blackwell chips, according to FT.Russia's Kremlin said Moscow is waiting for the US reaction after the Putin-Witkoff meeting, while it added that there is no plan for a Putin-Trump call for now.BoJ is said to likely hike this month and leave the door open to more, while the central bank is to check the data and market moves up to the final decision, according to Bloomberg.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.4% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders (Oct), French Trade Balance (Oct), Italian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Employment Final (Q3), EZ GDP Revised (Q3), Canadian Jobs Report (Nov), US PCE (Sep), US University of Michigan Prelim (Dec), and Comments from ECB's Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses trade modestly firmer, with little macro news to steer price action. Sentiment follows on from a mixed and quiet APAC session.US equity futures are mixed/mostly firmer with a skew towards tech-positive as ES and NQ eke mild gains vs the YM and RTY.DXY has unwound most of its earlier losses. Initially hit by a firmer JPY on the back of more hawkish BoJ sources, coupled with verbal intervention; USTs remain flat in a thin 112-22+ to 112-27+ band.Baidu (9888 HK/ BIDU) reportedly weighs a Hong Kong IPO for its AI chip unit Kunlunxin, to rival NVIDIA (NVDA); Dell (DELL) reportedly plans price hike of 15-20% from mid December.A Russian Kremlin aide said Russia and the US are moving forward in talks relating to Ukraine. Ready for further work with the current US negotiating team.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs Report (Nov), US PCE (Sep), US University of Michigan Prelim (Dec), Comments from ECB's Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Nossos sócios Luis André Oliveira, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a divulgação do ADP reforçou sinais de enfraquecimento no mercado de trabalho americano, com nova queda nas vagas em novembro; o PCE  confirmou a tendência de desaceleração da inflação; e os ISMs mantiveram a tendência de serviços superando manufaturas. O Trump sinalizou provável anúncio do nome de Kevin Hassett para o Fed, ainda sem oficialização. No Japão, o tom mais hawkish do presidente do BoJ, Kazuo Ueda, trouxe expectativa de aumento da taxa de juros. Na Europa, a inflação da Zona do Euro ficou próxima do esperado.  No Brasil, o PIB do 3º trimestre veio levemente abaixo do esperado, principalmente pelo consumo das famílias. Foi divulgada nova pesquisa Atlas, indicando interrupção na melhora da popularidade do presidente Lula. No campo político, a sexta-feira foi marcada por forte tensão: Flávio Bolsonaro anunciou que tem o apoio do pai para disputar a presidência, por ora frustrando a expectativa de consolidação da candidatura de Tarcísio. Nos EUA, o juro de 10 anos abriu 12 bps, e as bolsas subiram – S&P 500 +0,31%, Nasdaq +1,01%, Russell 2000 +0,84%. No Brasil, o jan/29 abriu 47 bps, o Ibovespa caiu 1,07% e o real 2,12%. Na próxima semana, os destaques são as decisões dos bancos centrais americano, canadense, australiano e brasileiro, além de dados de inflação e atividade no Brasil. Não deixe de conferir!

V nejnovějším Questu se Jarda, Šárka a Lukáš vrhají rovnou do zákopů jedné z nejdéle trvajících herních rivalit. Boj mezi střílečkovými sériemi Call of Duty a Battlefield se vede už přes dvacet let, letos do něj ale zkouší vstoupit třetí frakce: ARC Raiders. Nová značka, spousta ambic, ještě víc otázek. A taky verdikty, které tentokrát vůbec nejsou milosrdné.

The Trump admin is reportedly preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.US President Trump said the meeting between Russian President Putin, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner was a reasonably good meeting and "we'll see what happens".Trump's aides and allies were said to be discussing the possibility of Treasury Secretary Bessent also leading the NEC, according to Bloomberg; Bond investors reportedly warned the US Treasury over picking NEC Director Hassett as Fed chair, according to FT.USD/JPY pared gains after hawkish BoJ sources via Reuters suggested the central bank is likely to raise interest rates in December.APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF, EZ Retail Sales, US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims, Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators (Final), Durable Goods, Factory Orders, Atlanta Fed GDP, BoE DMP. Speakers include BoEʼs Mann, ECBʼs Lane, Cipollone & de Guindos, Fedʼs Bowman. Supply from Spain, France & UK. Earnings from Kroger & Dollar General.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European equities opened higher, reflecting positive APAC momentum, though European news flow has been light. Central bank updates included hawkish BoJ sources alongside concerns about Hassett as Fed Chair. The BoJ is likely to raise interest rates in December in a government-approved move, according to Reuters and Bloomberg sources.DXY is trading near the lower end of its 98.798–99.029 intraday range, pressured by JPY strengthFixed income benchmarks are lower following the hawkish BoJ reports, though the associated softening in risk sentiment has provided a modest haven bid as the morning unfolded.Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs (Nov), Jobless Claims (w/e 29 Nov), Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators (Final), Durable Goods (Sep), Factory Orders (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include BoE's Mann, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & de Guindos, Fed's Bowman. Earnings from Kroger & Dollar General.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending not far from worst levels. It was a fairly quiet session in the wake of the US Thanksgiving holiday. The market shook off a bit of the morning's risk-off bias tabbed to upward pressure on JGB yields amid ramping BoJ tightening expectations, as well as ongoing Bitcoin weakness following a nearly 20% decline last month.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump is bringing the country out of the Biden/Obama recession. The [CB] is trapped because they never expected Trump’s parallel economic system to be building at lightning speed. Trump is putting everything into place to transition the people from the [CB] which means we will not need the income tax. [DS] has now used one of it’s soldiers to begin the color revolution. The [DS] wants a civil war in the end and they are pushing it. Trump knows the playbook and this is why he took the path of waking the people up and building the counterinsurgency. The people must see who the true enemy is, only when the people see the enemy can we fight the enemy. Trump put all this into place for this moment. Economy https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1994238315730473327?s=20   Challenger Gray spiked +99,010, to 153,074, the highest since March. This also marks the highest monthly number for any October in 22 years. All while employees notified of mass layoffs via WARN notices tracked by Revelio rose +11,912 last month to 43,626, the 2nd-highest in at least 2 years. US layoffs are accelerating. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1994222461252980749?s=20  percentage has persisted above 90% for 12 months. Such an elevated reading has been seen only a few times over the last 35 years. Over the last 2 years, global central banks have cuts rates 316 times, the highest reading in at least 25 years. To put this into perspective, there were 313 cumulative cuts in 2008-2010 in response to the financial crisis. Global monetary policy is easing. Amazing How Central Bank Money-Printing Reversed around the World after the Inflation Shock  Balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and central banks of China, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and India as % of GDP.  The major central banks around the world have been unwinding their balance sheets for the past few years, even the Bank of Japan, which got a late start in 2024. Their balance sheets had swollen to grotesque proportions during the global QE frenzy that started in 2008, and QE-mania during and after the pandemic. But that has been getting unwound. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), an umbrella organization owned by its member central banks, released its latest quarterly data on central bank balance sheets today. We'll look at the decline of the balance sheets of nine major central banks: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, Bank of England, Central Bank of India, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Swiss National Bank. In normal times, central-bank balance sheets, including the Fed's balance sheet, grew with the economy, as measured by GDP; and the ratio of total assets as a percentage of GDP back then was low and roughly stable over the years. Years of QE then caused the ratios to explode. And years of QT have now caused the ratios to shrink dramatically.   They're all seeing the same thing: A continued threat of inflation and massive distortions and risks in asset prices, including dangerous housing bubbles that are now deflating in some markets. So they've been removing some of the fuel, to walk back from those risks. Source: wolfstreet.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1994194115467071830?s=20 Yes, President Trump did make that statement in a recent address (likely his Thanksgiving message to U.S. troops on November 27, 2025). Based on the video clip in the X post you linked, here’s the relevant excerpt from his remarks:“The next couple of years, I think we’ll substantially be cutting and maybe cutting out completely, but we’ll be cutting income tax—could be almost completely cutting it—because the money we’re taking in is going to be so large.”This aligns closely with the claim in the WatcherGuru post. Multiple news outlets have reported on the comments, confirming they are authentic and recent. For context, Trump has floated similar ideas about offsetting or replacing income taxes with tariff revenue multiple times during his campaign and presidency, though experts have questioned the feasibility due to the massive revenue gap (tariffs currently generate far less than income taxes). DOGE Geopolitical Globalist Germany's Firewall Against the AfD Collapses as Half the Country Now Open to Voting for Them For the first time since the party entered parliament about nine years ago, the anti-democratic cordon sanitaire around the right-wing, anti-globalist Alternative für Deutschland appears to have cracked wide open. According to the latest INSA/Bild poll, fewer than half of all German voters (just 49%) now say they would “never” vote AfD—down from a staggering 75% only a few years ago, This is nothing short of a historic breakthrough. Despite years of state-funded smear campaigns, constant domestic intelligence surveillance (Verfassungsschutz), court cases, job dismissals, bank account closures, repeated violence against party members by left-globalist extremists, and even serious discussions about banning the party outright, ordinary Germans are finally seeing through the propaganda and recognizing the AfD as the only serious opposition to a failing system. Source: thegatewaypundit.com    all the Liars and Pretenders of the Radical Left Media are going out of business! At the conclusion of the G20, South Africa refused to hand off the G20 Presidency to a Senior Representative from our U.S. Embassy, who attended the Closing Ceremony. Therefore, at my direction, South Africa will NOT be receiving an invitation to the 2026 G20, which will be hosted in the Great City of Miami, Florida next year. South Africa has demonstrated to the World they are not a country worthy of Membership anywhere, and we are going to stop all payments and subsidies to them, effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! War/Peace Zelensky sent aide to US talks to ‘protect’ him from corruption probe – media Zelensky appointed his chief of staff, Andrey Yermak, to head Kiev’s negotiating delegation in Geneva last weekend after learning that anti-corruption investigators were preparing a suspicion notice against the aide,The report comes amid fallout from a massive $100 million graft scheme involving the Ukrainian leader’s inner circle, including long-time associate Timur Mindich, who has been charged with running a kickback scheme in the energy sector and fled before the authorities could detain him.Surveillance of the Mindich case by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) reportedly captured conversations involving Zelensky and Yermak, potentially implicating both. Source: sott.net https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1994307774860189739?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1994307774860189739%7Ctwgr%5Ee8d979a9c10fbfc326b32333d206fa988e9c3418%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F11%2Fnew-ukraines-anti-corruption-bureau-raids-home-andriy%2F   Zelensky's chief of staff. The latest raid comes days after a $100M bribery scandal rocked Ukraine's energy sector – but no official word yet if this is linked. Neither agency has commented on the raid yet.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      NATO states considering ‘cyber offensive' against Russia – Politico NATO's European members are reportedly considering joint offensive cyber operations against Russia, Politico reported on Thursday, citing two senior EU government officials and three diplomats. Western governments are assessing cyber and other options in response to alleged “hybrid attacks” by Moscow, according to the publication. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze told Politico that NATO must “be more proactive on the cyber offensive” and better coordinate their intelligence services. “And it's not talking that sends a signal – it's doing,” she said. In late 2024, NATO unveiled plans to establish a new integrated cyber defense center at its headquarters in Belgium, which is expected to go online by 2028. Stefano Piermarocchi, the head of cyber risk management within NATO's chief information office, told Breaking Defense that the new hub would enhance Source: rt.com Russian President Vladimir Putin Gives Remarkably Detailed Explanation of Current Peace Negotiation Status – Either Ukraine Concedes Diplomatically, or We Will Win Militarily Source: theconservativetreehouse.com Medical/False Flags [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/1993883057414353293?s=20 https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1994206037998538849?s=20 https://twitter.com/AGPamBondi/status/1994194638421340290?s=20 https://twitter.com/VickieforNYC/status/1993899026651951335?s=20   foreign warzone. Yet almost every major lefty account is parroting this narrative. It’s bizarre. Like “of COURSE people are going to try and murder the National Guard, what did you expect to happen in Washington” Is this the narrative here? That Washington is Fallujah? Or is it that the left has declared a de facto state of war, and casualties are now just to be expected? It’s extremely bad either way. https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/1994054785163522357?s=20  that the President said it's times to bring in more law enforcement to make sure that a city that had the 4th highest homicide rate in the country, that that violence was quelled. I'm not even gonna go there!” Liberals have been spending the last 12 hours trying to place the blame on Trump for bringing the NG to the city. Truly unbelievable how ungrateful these people are https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1993876798866653577?s=20 https://twitter.com/thevivafrei/status/1994116243154973175?s=20   intentions, everything takes on a whole new meaning. https://twitter.com/ZannSuz/status/1993859778414580217?s=20 https://twitter.com/JLRINVESTIGATES/status/1994214556671889810?s=20 https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/1994118842239610989?s=20   dive here. As always, patience as I pull together the thread: https://twitter.com/TPASarah/status/1994015487135514931 Sarah Adams@TPASarah Lakanwal, from Khost Province, Afghanistan, was a member of two CIA-supported units that operated under the National Directorate of Security (NDS) of the former Afghan Republic. Although these units belonged to the NDS on paper, their support and direction came directly from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). He served in Unit 01, a special military-intelligence unit responsible for the central zone provinces (Kabul, Parwan, Wardak, and Logar). His agency training in 2007 took place at CIA's Eagle Base near the Deh Sabz district of Kabul province, a few miles from Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA). Eagle Camp, originally built on an old brick factory site, became one of the CIA's most important counterterrorism training centers in the early 2000s. It trained the CIA-backed NDS units including NDS-01, NDS-02, NDS-03, NDS-04, NDS-KPF, and NDS-KSF, and also housed an ammunition depot and multiple facilities for sensitive operations. When U.S. forces left Afghanistan in 2021, Eagle Camp was among the final sites to be evacuated and demolished. It was later handed over to the Haqqani Network's suicide bomber brigade, the Badri 313. Badri 313 moved the suicide bombers through the gate areas of HKIA for the Abbey Gate attack that killed 13 of our servicemembers and approximately 170 Afghans on August 26, 2021. After completing training at Eagle Base, Lakanwal was transferred to the team supporting CIA's Kandahar Base. The site had a long militant history: it housed Mullah Mohammad Omar from 1994–2001, Osama bin Laden from 1998–2001, and later Camp Gecko from 2002–2021, which was used by the CIA and NDS-03. It served as the headquarters of the Kandahar Strike Force, which led CIA-backed counterterrorism operations in Kandahar, Uruzgan, and Zabul provinces against the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and ISIS. Lakanwal took part in counterterrorism missions alongside U.S. forces in Kandahar. After the attack yesterday on our National Guardsmen in Washington, DC, ISIS channels were the first to praise the incident largely because Lakanwal's half-brother (the son of his father's second wife, pictured left) had been a recruiter for the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (ISKP). His brother, Muawiyah Khurasani aka Hayatullah (pictured below), previously worked with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Orakzai Agency, Pakistan, before formally joining ISKP. He was killed in a targeted operation in July 2022 in Achin district, Nangarhar province. Some ISIS members claimed he was killed by Pakistan's Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD), though that remains unconfirmed. After the fall of Kabul in 2021, Lakanwal's unit the Kandahar Protection Force and the Khost Protection Force (KPF) became prime targets for both the Haqqani Network and ISKP, which sought either to blackmail or recruit former KPF members. Recruitment involved persuading them to join voluntarily; blackmail involved coercing them through threats to their families (many were left behind), exposure of past work with the U.S., or financial pressure. Both groups targeted these units specifically because of their close relationships on U.S. soil, particularly with former CIA officers. In addition, both groups, along with al-Qaeda, saw value in impersonating these units. A couple thousand fake documents and ID cards were produced so terrorists could claim affiliation with KPF/01/02 and other special units. This allowed some individuals to fraudulently move through the U.S. evacuation process by exploiting unsuspecting volunteers and taking advantage of weak vetting procedures. We have confirmed that Lakanwal's ID (pictured right) and employment were legitimate, but a full review is recommended, as terrorists have explicitly claimed using this route as a pipeline into the U.S. We cannot keep waiting for Americans to be killed again and again before we act against the Islamist terrorists who have arrived on our soil since 2021. This can no longer fall on the shoulders of a small handful of people sounding the alarm. Every American needs to be engaged: protecting their families, their communities, and our homeland. Please prepare today! https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1993925420329390316?s=20  action force of the AFN who fought directly alongside U.S. Special Forces against the Taliban. In addition, Fox News is reporting that Lakanwal worked with various other government entities from the United States in Afghanistan, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), specifically as part of the CIA-backed Kandahar Strike Force (KSF), known in most intelligence circles as NDS-03, which operated outside of U.S. and Afghan military chain-of-commands directly under the CIA, carrying out covert, clandestine, counterterrorism operations, including night raids and assassinations against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/1993878815349854361?s=20 CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed that to Fox. “In the wake of the disastrous Biden withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden administration justified bringing the alleged shooter to the United States in September 2021 due to his prior work with the U.S. government, including CIA, as a member of a partner force in Kandahar, which ended shortly following the chaotic evacuation,” CIA Director John Ratcliffe told Fox News Digital. “The individual—and so many others—should have never been allowed to come here,” Ratcliffe continued. “Our citizens and service members deserve far better than to endure the ongoing fallout from the Biden administration's catastrophic failures.” Ratcliffe added: “God bless our brave troops.” https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1994201842750837067?s=20 https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1993882348069552531?s=20 https://twitter.com/CannConActual/status/1993693224196604379?s=20  at a colour revolution. @ColonelTowner and@xAlphaWarriorx have done a good job documenting several. We have been overwhelmingly resistant to these efforts on our homeland through the use of NGOs funding widespread protests and subsequent riots. And as President Trump cut the head off their private sector funding apparatuses (USAID, NED, etc), they are becoming desperate. So they politicized the military, subverted the Constitutional authority of the Commander in Chief, and injected themselves in a chain of command they are NOT a part of. The desperate attempt to execute their plan. This is life or death for the Deep State. https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/1993886979738460646?s=20 There are three phases to a Color Revolution. It’s important to understand this so you can see how the actions of the Sedition 6 fit into this pattern. PHASE ONE: -Form underground opposition networks. -Create strong slogans and powerful information operations as recruitment tools. -Upon a certain well-coordinated signal, well-funded, well-organized mass protests “spontaneously” appear. -The armed wing of the movement conducts carefully coordinated, precision attacks on certain government infrastructure. PHASE TWO:  -Discredit military, security, and law enforcement forces through information operations, coordination with friendly media (Jimmy Kimmel? Talkin’ to you, Komrade Kelly), strikes, civil disobedience, rioting, and sabotage. yOU ARE HER -Occupy civic facilities and refuse to leave until your demands are met. -Strengthen and grow a highly organized logistics support network. -Issue ultimatums to the government, threatening violent uprisings if demands are unmet. The goal is to either have the government acquiesce or engage in violent repression, in each case thereby delegitimizing itself. PHASE THREE:  -Overthrow the government in a “non-violent” manner that is actually quite violent. -Open attacks on authorities, seizure of government buildings, destruction of government symbols. -Coordinate media messaging. If the government attacks, media will accuse the government of attacking “peaceful protestors.” If the government makes concessions, it will appear impotent because protestors will not compromise. -Widespread delegitimization of the government is effective in the minds of the populace; the government either willingly cedes power or is violently removed. -The once underground opposition forces’ leadership now seizes control of the government.   prisons, mental institutions, gangs, or drug cartels. They and their children are supported through massive payments from Patriotic American Citizens who, because of their beautiful hearts, do not want to openly complain or cause trouble in any way, shape, or form. They put up with what has happened to our Country, but it's eating them alive to do so! A migrant earning $30,000 with a green card will get roughly $50,000 in yearly benefits for their family. The real migrant population is much higher. This refugee burden is the leading cause of social dysfunction in America, something that did not exist after World War II (Failed schools, high crime, urban decay, overcrowded hospitals, housing shortages, and large deficits, etc.). As an example, hundreds of thousands of refugees from Somalia are completely taking over the once great State of Minnesota. Somalian gangs are roving the streets looking for “prey” as our wonderful people stay locked in their apartments and houses hoping against hope that they will be left alone. The seriously retarded Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, does nothing, either through fear, incompetence, or both, while the worst “Congressman/woman” in our Country, Ilhan Omar, always wrapped in her swaddling hijab, and who probably came into the U.S.A. illegally in that you are not allowed to marry your brother, does nothing but hatefully complain about our Country, its Constitution, and how “badly” she is treated, when her place of origin is a decadent, backward, and crime ridden nation, which is essentially not even a country for lack of Government, Military, Police, schools, etc…    denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization. These goals will be pursued with the aim of achieving a major reduction in illegal and disruptive populations, including those admitted through an unauthorized and illegal Autopen approval process. Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation. Other than that, HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL, except those that hate, steal, murder, and destroy everything that America stands for — You won't be here for long! Trump Orders Green Card Review in the Wake of Shooting by Afghan on Overstay President Trump's Plan (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the pound's reaction to the UK budget. If the yen continues to weaken will it encourage the BoJ to bring forward rate hike plans?  

Dario Catodici known as JustDario on X is the co-founder Synnax Technologies, a universal credit rating standard for digital asset and conventional private credit markets. He talks why the Japan carry trade is important for everyone to be paying attention to, how the BOJ might respond, possible bailout in the AI bubble and much more. PLEASE SUBSCRIBE LIKE AND SHARE THIS PODCAST!!!   Watch Show Rumble- https://rumble.com/v71z4xs-japans-inflation-surprise-justdario-on-x.html YouTube- https://youtu.be/bjBQIrqcQpc   Follow Me X- https://x.com/CoffeeandaMike IG- https://www.instagram.com/coffeeandamike/ Facebook- https://www.facebook.com/CoffeeandaMike/ YouTube- https://www.youtube.com/@Coffeeandamike Rumble- https://rumble.com/search/all?q=coffee%20and%20a%20mike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Apple Podcasts- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coffee-and-a-mike/id1436799008 Gab- https://gab.com/CoffeeandaMike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Website- www.coffeeandamike.com Email- info@coffeeandamike.com   Support My Work Venmo- https://www.venmo.com/u/coffeeandamike Paypal- https://www.paypal.com/biz/profile/Coffeeandamike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Patreon- http://patreon.com/coffeeandamike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Cash App- https://cash.app/$coffeeandamike Buy Me a Coffee- https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeandamike Bitcoin- coffeeandamike@strike.me   Mail Check or Money Order- Coffee and a Mike LLC P.O. Box 25383 Scottsdale, AZ 85255-9998   Follow Dario X- https://x.com/DarioCpx?s=20 Website- https://justdario.com/   Sponsors Vaulted/Precious Metals- https://vaulted.blbvux.net/coffeeandamike McAlvany Precious Metals- https://mcalvany.com/coffeeandamike/ Independence Ark Natural Farming- https://www.independenceark.com/

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.