Podcasts about The Jolts

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  • Oct 5, 2022LATEST
The Jolts

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Best podcasts about The Jolts

Latest podcast episodes about The Jolts

Markets & Mortgages
Ep. 221 | Is The Labor Market Finally Softening?

Markets & Mortgages

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 14:26


SUMMARY: The second report in as many days finds that home prices fell for two months in a row at the end of the summer and the latest JOLTS report brings hope to those looking for relief from inflation but the data is incomplete...Sources:Home Prices Fall for the Second MonthJob Openings Plummet in AugustDISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender.  This website is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

Digest & Invest by eToro
Tesla Deliveries, Non-Farm Payrolls and Oil Prices

Digest & Invest by eToro

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 16:40


Listen to the latest market news from eToro Market Analyst Josh Gilbert and Global Market Strategist Ben Laidler as they talk about three of the main stories in markets right now.The first subject today was Tesla. The EV giant fell by 8% on Monday after missing delivery expectations. Why did the stock miss expectations? Does Tesla have a demand problem, or was this just a bump in the road? What does Musk's Twitter buy mean for Tesla's share price? Secondly, the team discuss Friday's Non-Farm Payroll Report in the US. After a surprise JOLTS report out of the US, what can we expect? Why do we need to see the labour market cool in the US? The last topic today was all about commodities. What's going on with Oil prices? Are OPEC+ likely to cut output at its meeting? What do oil stocks look like in this market?  Learn more about trading by visiting the eToro Trading School's home page where you can read reports, watch videos and sign up to our free trading course.Your capital is at risk. Other fees apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees. Past performance is not an indication of future results.This communication is for information and education purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation to buy or sell, any financial instruments. This material has been prepared without taking into account any particular recipient's investment objectives or financial situation, and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal and regulatory requirements to promote independent research. Any references to past or future performance of a financial instrument, index or a packaged investment product are not, and should not be taken as, a reliable indicator of future results. eToro makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the content of this publication.

Morning Call
05.10.22 - Reunião da OPEP+ hoje deve decidir por cortes na produção de petróleo

Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 5:32


O #MorningCall da #XPInvestimentos mostra os principais destaques do dia e os impactos para o mercado, antes do pregão. Confira os temas de hoje, 05/10/2022:O total de vagas de emprego abertas nos EUA caiu 10% em agosto, de acordo com o relatório JOLTS do Departamento do Trabalho. É um sinal de que o mercado de trabalho está esfriando um pouco, dos níveis elevados do pós-pandemia. Esta semana outros dois indicadores serão fundamentais para confirmar se essa tendência de desaceleração realmente está acontecendo: a criação de postos de trabalho privados estimado pela consultoria ADP hoje e os dados oficiais do mercado de trabalho de setembro na sexta-feira. A Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo e aliados - OPEP+ - reúne-se hoje. De acordo com as notícias da Bloomberg, o grupo está considerando seu maior corte de produção desde 2020 em resposta à queda dos últimos meses dos preços internacionais. No Brasil, destaque para os números da produção industrial de agosto. Acompanhe todos os conteúdos da XP em https://t2m.io/8cxPp6xParticipe do canal do Telegram para estar sempre atualizado: https://t.me/xp_investimentosConfira mais conteúdos também através do nosso Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/expertxp/ Assine o Expert Pass e tenha acesso a conteúdos exclusivos: https://bit.ly/ExpertPass.Investir com a XP Investimentos é fácil, basta criar o seu cadastro e em minutos você já pode começar a investir: https://t2m.io/7OSnDSj

TD Ameritrade Network
JOLTS Data Indicates Employers Are Taking Jobs Off The Table?

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 8:47


"Yesterday's JOLTS number came below expectations and fundamentals caused the major indices to finish higher. Today, we are seeing a pullback in the Futures market. JOLTS can be seen as a leading indicator that shows that companies are taking jobs off the table, which could lead to a tighter labor market. Regarding the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, the data is using a different methodology," says Kevin Green.

The Cable
Tory Conference Latest, JOLTS, Musk Revives Deal (Podcast)

The Cable

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2022 44:04


Host Alix Steel is joined by guest host Kristine Aquino. They speak with Bloomberg's James Woolcock to get the latest on UK politics, live from the Tory party conference in Birmingham. Bloomberg's Rosalind Mathieson joins to talk about the latest in Ukraine. They also speak with Bloomberg Economics Editor Michael McKee to discuss JOLTS data and Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst Fernando Valle on OPEC+. Plus, Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow joins to give his take on Elon Musk reviving his Twitter deal.

The Financial Exchange Show
Rebound Rally Recap // A "Mild & Short" Recession // Job Openings Dip In August - 10/4 (Hour 1)

The Financial Exchange Show

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2022 40:41


(1:38) - Mike and Paul begin Tuesday's show with a recap of Monday's strong rally, in which the Nasdaq and S&P had their best first days of a quarter since 2009.(12:34) - Discussing how a survey of global CEO's revealed that many are predicting a "mild and short" recession in the next 12 months.(23:02) - Touching on the JOLTS report for August, which showed a 10% in job openings in the latest sign that the job market is cooling.(30:53) - A conversation about how retail real estate is no longer plentiful like it was the past two years.

TD Ameritrade Network
Job Openings Drop: What That Means For A Recession

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2022 6:25


Stability in other key JOLTs metrics reassures the drop in job openings, says Mark Hamrick. He and Erik Lundh discuss how job openings dropped by 10% in August. They also talk about what the job openings drop means for recession predictions. Erik notes that we may see job opening growth in May start to slow. They then go over what a slowing labor market means for the Fed. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

P&L With Paul Sweeney and Lisa Abramowicz
Treasuries, iPhones, Ray Dalio, the Supply Chain, and ESG (Podcast)

P&L With Paul Sweeney and Lisa Abramowicz

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2022 39:34


Ira Jersey, Chief US interest rate strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Treasury yields peaking and the latest JOLTS data. Anurag Rana, Senior Software and IT analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the show to talk about the latest Bloomberg Intelligence findings on iPhone sales, outlook for Apple, and outlook for retail in 2022. Erik Schatzker, editor-at-large at Bloomberg News, joins the show to discuss the breaking story that Ray Dalio is giving up control of Bridgewater Associates. Tony Hatch, consultant with ABH consulting, joins the show in studio along with BI analyst Lee Klaskow to discuss the latest on the supply chain. Vivek Ramaswamy, founder of Strive Asset Management, joins the show to discuss his latest ETF, ESG investing, and outlook for the markets and ESG trading. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Matt Miller, and Barry Ritholtz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

TD Ameritrade Network
October Historically A Volatile Month & Importance Of JOLTS Data

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2022 10:31


The S&P 500 Index or SPX and Nasdaq had their first three quarter losing streak since 2009. "A mid-term election year could cause the stock market to go higher this quarter. October has historically been a volatile month. Notable economic data this week includes the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, Factory Orders, Durable Goods, and the Employment Situation. Specifically, if we see a drop in the JOLTS number, that could indicate a move higher for markets," says Kevin Green.

Novus Capital
NovusCast - 30 de Setembro 2022

Novus Capital

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2022 20:14


Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Sarah Campos e Yara Cordeiro debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠No cenário internacional, o Reino Unido continuou dominando o noticiário: a primeira ministra reafirmou o plano fiscal divulgado, e o Banco Central da Inglaterra (BoE) comunicou que faria uma avaliação de cenário na próxima reunião, reduzindo a chance de haver um encontro extraordinário, além de intervir no mercado de títulos para evitar chamada de margem para os fundos de pensão. Também foram divulgados importantes dados de inflação: na Zona do Euro, renovaram a alta, puxados principalmente pela Alemanha; e, nos EUA, a surpresa também foi altista, levando os membros do Fed a reforçarem a mensagem de que é necessário ter cautela para não repetir os erros do passado. Ainda, os desenvolvimentos da guerra têm sido mais negativos, com a Rússia anexando novos territórios e abrindo espaço para retaliações. No Brasil, o presidente do Banco Central trouxe atenção para a as indicações do Focus. De dados, tivemos o IPCA-15, com surpresa baixista bastante significativa, apesar de composição mista e serviços ainda pressionados; e a PNAD, que indicou queda no desemprego e recomposição da força de trabalho. Por fim, chegamos na reta final das eleições para o 1º turno, com novo debate e divulgação de diversas pesquisas, indicando melhora marginal para o Lula. ⁠ A semana foi, mais uma vez, bastante volátil, sendo também fechamento de mês e trimestre. Nos EUA, as bolsas fecharam em queda (S&P500 -2,91%, Nasdaq -3,01%), e os juros de 30 anos abrindo 17 bps. Na Inglaterra, a abertura de juros seguiu para os vértices de 2, 5 e 10 anos (ao redor de 30 bps), com fechamento de 22 bps para o 30 anos. Já no Brasil, o Ibovespa caiu 1,50%, e o real desvalorizou 2,83%. ⁠ Na próxima semana haverá divulgação de dados de emprego (payroll, JOLTS) e atividade (ISM) nos EUA, além de reunião da OPEC. Será importante acompanhar a eleição no Brasil, e a evolução da guerra. ⁠ ⁠⁠Não deixe de acompanhar pra ficar por dentro do que rolou na semana e o que esperar da próxima!⁠ ⁠⁠

Smartinvesting2000
Unemployment / Job Openings, JOLTS, Wall Street, September, Reserves, Labor / Job Security, Investments, Growing Jobs, FAST ACT Bill & Russia Oil Revenue

Smartinvesting2000

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2022 58:05


Unemployment / Job Openings The jobs report today showed the labor market strength is slowing, but overall, it still remains in a very healthy spot. The headline number saw payrolls increase 315,000, which was essentially in line with the estimate of 318,000. While this was the slowest growth since April 2021, it is still a good growth rate and people need to realize the blockbuster job gains we saw from job recoupment are now in the past. One negative note for job growth was the previous two months were revised lower by a net 107,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 3.7%, but I view this as positive as it was driven by an increase in the labor participation rate of 0.3% to 62.4%. The labor force participation rate still remains 1.0% below the February 2020 level. The gains in employment were broad based with every category seeing growth, but business and professional services continued to lead the way with an addition of 68,000 jobs and healthcare and retail trade were close behind with additions of 48,200 jobs and 44,000 jobs respectively. Leisure and hospitality has seen some of the strongest growth but saw an increase of just 31,000 jobs in the month of August, which was substantially lower than the 91,000 job increase in the month of July. This sector continues to remain beaten down compared to pre-pandemic levels as the total number of payrolls is still 1.2 million jobs below where we were in February 2020. One area of the report I found interesting was the number of people that were counted as long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more). It currently stands at 1.1 million and accounts for 18.8% of all unemployed persons. I hate to say it, but with job openings nearly 2x higher than the total number of unemployed persons how have they not been able to find a job? JOLTS The JOLTs report continues to show strength as job openings in the month of July saw results of 11.24 million openings, easily top the estimate of 10.3 million. This was a slight increase from the month of June which saw openings total 11.04 million. The job openings level is still close to 2x the number of available workers as they totaled just 5.67 million in the month of July. While this report is a major positive for the labor market, it remains concerning on the inflation front. The discrepancy between openings and available workers adds pressure to wage inflation as companies compete over employees and it makes me wonder if we have enough people in the labor force to help resolve the supply chain issues we have been seeing in the economy. Wall Street   We have seen speculation in cryptocurrencies falter along with the meme stocks. I've always said Wall Street is great with coming out with products that they can make money on investors who speculate on trying to get rich quick. You now will begin seeing what is known as single stock ETFs which use various high-risk techniques along with options and futures and in some cases leverage. Three very risky tools. This will allow investors to speculate more on short term moves up and down of popular stocks like Tesla, Apple, Nike and in the works, you may even find companies like Boeing and Salesforce. They promote the benefit that you can't lose more than what you invested, and you don't need to sign margin agreements or any other pesty paperwork. And of course, Wall Street will make their money off of fees that seem to range from 0.95% to 1.15%. Once again people with little knowledge of how these work and with the excitement and enthusiasm that they will get rich will jump into these new ETFs which they hope will fill their dreams of getting rich quick. I can see down the road I would guess 3 to 5 years people who lost their money complaining it was unfair and someone needs to reimburse them. It was not their fault they did not read the paperwork or understand what they invested in. Would someone please tell these people to stop speculating and invest in good quality companies for 3 to 5 years and be happy with a potential annual average return of 8 to 10%. Once again investors are being warned of another great moneymaker for Wall Street and a big loser for them. September Buckle your seatbelt as September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks. Going back to 1928 both the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones industrials have an average loss of around 1% in the month of September. Keep in mind an average does mean there have been up months in the past. For September I see 3 things that can weigh on the market. First off would be another interest-rate increase of 3/4 of a percent, second would be oil rising back to $100 a barrel and lastly more bad news coming out of the war in Ukraine. This does not mean you sell your stocks and go to cash. It means be prepared for some pullbacks and be aware that September is the worst month of the year. Reserves On August 31 we will get an update on where the strategic petroleum reserves now stand after taking 1 million barrels a day from the reserves. The most recent data shows there were 453.1 million barrels in the reserves, down from 621.3 million barrels one year ago. What worries me here are two things. First this was meant as a temporary fix with the hopes of increasing production, which does not appear to have happened. In addition to that there is talk that the Middle East may reduce their production. My second concern is in 30 days or so when this program is over it appears the levels in the SPR will be somewhere around 390 million barrels, not a good comfort feeling. In addition to not replacing the production of oil, what will the government be doing to replace the oil they took from the strategic reserves. I'm also assuming the oil they used to meet the shortfall was lower priced oil than what they will be buying it back at especially since they're buying will increase the demand for oil. I believe in a long-term program to a good clean energy policy, but in the short term they really need to focus on a fix for how to produce more oil and gas. I hope they had a plan for this when they began the 1 million barrel a day reduction in the SPR. Labor/Job Security I have said I do believe the recession will not be as dramatic because people not only have a job but feel comfortable that their job is secure, or they could obtain another job if they wanted to at equal or greater pay. It has been estimated that the US labor market is still down about 7 million workers from the pre-pandemic days. It also has been estimated that those who took early retirements reduced the labor supply by 2% and those gig jobs that people picked up has been estimated to have reduced the labor force by another 4%. It is also estimated that roughly 3% on a floating monthly basis of US workers are infected with Covid -19 which still requires mandatory days to stay at home. To help with the supply of labor it is possible some of those who retired will become concerned about inflation and the recession and return to the workforce. Investments The S&P 500 has had a nice rebound since June 16 rising around 11%, but still remains down 15% for the year. Traders now seem to be getting nervous. Net short positions against the S&P 500 futures are reaching levels that have not been seen in two years. This could cause a lot more volatility in September, which is the worst month of the year in regard to performance. Check your investments and your equities to make sure they can handle the storm. Growing Jobs We just saw a great JOLTS Report, which stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. I now see Honda and LG are going to build a $4.4 billion EV battery plant starting early next year in Ohio. Tesla announced recently they are building a $4 billion EV battery plant in Oklahoma and not to long ago, Intel announced spending $20 billion in two different cities to build chip manufacturing plants. What I'm thinking is jobs, jobs and more jobs. First off construction of these multi-billion-dollar production plants will take 2 to 3 years to complete. Then the workers to work on these plants will also be making good wages as well. This will also generate the ripple effect of more jobs as the money flows into these communities. I feel pretty good about the long-term job market here in United States. FAST ACT Bill The California legislature passed a bill known as the FAST act for fast food chains that establishes a fast-food council charged with setting pay and workplace standards for the entire industry. The bill would allow the council to set pay for workers up to $22 per hour next year. This is backed strongly by the unions of course who never seem to understand the fundamentals of running a business or making a profit. Governor Newsom has about 30 days to decide to approve or veto the bill, restaurant owners are pushing hard to obtain a veto. I believe if this passes you will see closures of some fast-food restaurants or food prices at the franchises climb by 20 to 25% so the business can make a profit. My other fear is this will creep into other businesses causing more closures of other businesses and much higher prices in California. Russia Oil Revenue You may have figured out that because of the increase in the price of oil Russia is now drowning in cash. Their oil revenues are up substantially compared to before the war in Ukraine. Russia is now averaging oil export earnings of $20 billion/month, an increase of 37% from the earnings of $14.6 billion/month in 2021. Indirectly the United States is helping Russia generate more revenues in oil by producing less. The United States needs to open all oil wells, pipelines, and do whatever it takes to produce oil anywhere they can to shut Russia down. Let's put the green energy objective on hold for a year or so to shut down Russia. If we did that the war in Ukraine would be over rather quickly. Harrison Johnson, CFP®: "Understanding all risks in retirement"

Monday Morning Minutes
MMM Episode 81: A Month of Weaker Stocks, Volatile Bond Yields and a Dominant Dollar

Monday Morning Minutes

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2022 31:46


In a survey of market returns for August, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau (3:25) note a decline of 4% on the S&P 500, with energy up 2.6% and utilities up 50 basis points (bps) to diverge from the negative sectors. The Russell 1000 Value, down 2.98%, outperformed the Russell 1000 Growth, down 4.7%. Turning to the fixed income markets (6:44), they point out that the month's rise in yields such as 61 bps on the two-year Treasury and 54 bps on the 10-year Treasury understated significant intramonth volatility, especially around Federal Reserve officials' policy retreat at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. For example, the two-year-to-10-year spread inverted to as much as negative 50 bps before ending Aug. 31 at negative 30 bps. Commodities managed to eke out a gain of 9 bps in August (10:55) amid the Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against other developed market currencies, at its highest levels in over two decades. West Texas Intermediate crude oil front-futures were down 9% for the month. “Given some of the (economic) weakness and central bank tightening financial conditions,” Sam Lau says, “perhaps the commodity market is finally starting to succumb to some of the strength in the dollar.” After reviewing the JOLTS job openings report, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and the labor force participation rate (19:20), Jeff Mayberry says, “All eyes are on the CPI number that we get in a couple of weeks, but certainly there's nothing from the labor force side that would cause the Fed any concern that they shouldn't raise rates.”

Novus Capital
NovusCast - 02 de Setembro 2022

Novus Capital

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2022 18:52


Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠No cenário internacional, foram divulgados dados de emprego nos EUA (Payroll e JOLTs), que reforçaram um mercado de trabalho bastante apertado, com forte ritmo de criação de vagas, aumento na taxa de participação, elevação da relação vaga/desempregado e salários marginalmente abaixo da expectativa; além de dados de atividade (ISM de manufatura) um pouco acima do esperado. Na Zona do Euro, foi divulgada a inflação de agosto, que ainda mostrou aceleração dos preços e, ainda por lá, o cenário relativo ao petróleo e ao gás segue conturbado, com tentativas de redução dos preços e novos problemas técnicos no Nord Stream anunciados pelo grupo russo Gazprom. Na China, foram divulgados os PMIs, um pouco melhores que o esperado; novas medidas restritivas foram impostas, e o governo reforçou a preocupação com a desvalorização da moeda. ⁠ No Brasil, foi divulgado o PIB do 2º trimestre, que surpreendeu positivamente, e provocou revisão nas projeções de crescimento de 2022 e 2023. Além disso, após o debate presidencial de domingo, novas rodadas de pesquisa foram divulgadas, mostrando elevação nas intenções de voto dos candidatos menos populares. ⁠ Novamente foi uma semana agitada para os mercados, influenciada também pelo fechamento de mês. Nos EUA, as bolsas fecharam em queda – S&P500 em -3,29%, Nasdaq em -4,02%, e os juros abrindo (10 anos em +15 bps), com o vértice de 2 anos chegando a alcançar nova máxima. No Brasil, o Ibovespa encerrou a semana em queda de 1,28%, e o juro (jan/27) fechou 32 bps. Na próxima semana serão divulgados dados de inflação (IPCA) aqui no Brasil, e o presidente do Fed, Jerome Powell, fará o último discurso antes da reunião de setembro. ⁠ ⁠⁠Não deixe de acompanhar pra ficar por dentro do que rolou na semana e o que esperar da próxima!⁠ ⁠⁠

The tastytrade network
This Week In Stocks - September 2, 2022 - Will High Rates Be The Death Of Us?

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2022 13:45


Fed reiterated hawkish stance at The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium; markets down three straight weeks. Dollar rallied for the third consecutive week against other currencies. Oil has not stopped being volatile; Up 4% on Monday down 7% on the week. Two-year yields push above 3.5%; highest since Nov. 2007. Both the JOLTS report and the August jobs report has a hawkish outlook.

The tastytrade network
This Week In Stocks - September 2, 2022 - Will High Rates Be The Death Of Us?

The tastytrade network

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2022 12:54


Fed reiterated hawkish stance at The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium; markets down three straight weeks. Dollar rallied for the third consecutive week against other currencies. Oil has not stopped being volatile; Up 4% on Monday down 7% on the week. Two-year yields push above 3.5%; highest since Nov. 2007. Both the JOLTS report and the August jobs report has a hawkish outlook.

MarketLive
JOLTS, ADP, NFP : l'emploi US agite les marchés

MarketLive

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2022 28:06


Retrouvez le MarketLive, du lundi au Vendredi, en compagnie d'Alexandre Baradez & Vincent boy, pour un décryptage de l'actualité des marchés financiers.  Cet enregistrement est à titre indicatif et aucune des informations mentionnées ne saurait être considérée comme un conseil ou une recommandation.  Pour plus d'infos visitez notre page dédiée sur notre site :  https://www.ig.com/fr/market-live

MarketBeat Minute
MarketBeat Minute(2022-08-31)

MarketBeat Minute

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2022 1:00


Equity traders resumed their selling on Tuesday bringing the downtrend to three weeks and the market to a five-week low. The selling intensified under mounting fear the FOMC will not quit hiking interest rates until inflation is in control and that it could mean a very deep recession. The S&P 500 shed about 1.5% at the low of the day and it looks like it will retest the 3,700 level sooner rather than later. Market fear was stocked by a hotter-than-expected JOLTs figure. The number of job openings surged to 11.2 million and just shy of record highs despite an expectation for openings to fall to 10. million. The figures suggest economic activity is still hot enough to underpin wage inflation if not broader inflation and support the idea of another aggressive FOMC rate hike. The odds of a third 75 basis point hike rose above 70% following the news and the next FOMC meeting is only 3 weeks away.

MKT Call
When Good News Is Bad News: JOLTS & Consumer Confidence Sink Stocks

MKT Call

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2022 36:40


On this episode of MKT Call, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan discuss: Stocks sliding after JOLTS & consumer confidence data beat expectations Will the VIX break out to 30? Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta putting a drag on the Nasdaq Bonds flirting with a bear market Oil whipsawing lower again Copper on the verge of five straight negative months Bitcoin losing altitude below $20,000 See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com.  Shoot us an email at contact@riskreversal.com with any feedback, questions, or suggestions going forward and follow us @MKTCall. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Like us on Facebook  @RiskReversal Subscribe to our YouTube page

The Workplace Minute Powered by H3 HR Advisors
The US Labor Market Remains Hot - Highlights from the July 2022 JOLTS Report

The Workplace Minute Powered by H3 HR Advisors

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2022 3:00


The Workplace Minute powered by H3 HR Advisors Sponsored by Paychex - one of the leading providers of HR, payroll, retirement, and software solutions for businesses of all sizes - learn more at www.paychex.com. Hosts: Steve Boese Welcome to the Workplace Minute powered by H3 HR Advisors. A short, quick version of the popular HR Happy Hour Podcast, where Steve Boese and Trish McFarlane, take on topics on Human Resources, HR technology, work, and the workplace. And more. In this episode Steve shares some highlights from the July 2022 JOLTS Report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. To listen to the Workplace Minute powered by H3 HR Advisors - add the Workplace Minute by H3 HR Advisors skill to your Amazon Echo device's Flash Briefing or Daily News Update. Learn more at www.h3hr.com and www.hrhappyhour.net

On The Tape
MKT Cal 8/30/22: When Good News Is Bad News: JOLTS & Consumer Confidence Sink Stocks

On The Tape

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2022 37:43


On this episode of MKT Call, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan discuss: Stocks sliding after JOLTS & consumer confidence data beat expectations Will the VIX break out to 30? Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta putting a drag on the Nasdaq Bonds flirting with a bear market Oil whipsawing lower again Copper on the verge of five straight negative months Bitcoin losing altitude below $20,000 See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com.  Shoot us an email at contact@riskreversal.com with any feedback, questions, or suggestions going forward and follow us @MKTCall. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Like us on Facebook @RiskReversal Subscribe to our YouTube page

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Dutch TTF pressured, EUR elevated and crude clipped as Iraq's exports are unaffected

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2022 3:36


European bourses are supported in tandem with pressure in European gas prices, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%; US futures firmer across the boardDXY under 108.50 to the benefit of peers (ex-CHF) and in particular antipodeans and the EUR, latter aided by gas pricesEGBs bid as benchmarks recoup from Monday's pressure, USTs in-fitting and looking to Fed's WilliamsWTI and Brent futures have pared back around half of the prior day's gains; Iraq output reportedly unaffected by political unrestLooking ahead, highlights include German HICP (Prelim.), US Consumer Confidence & JOLTS, Speeches from Fed's Williams & Barkin, ECB's Vasle.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
Euro Market Open: Mixed trade overall with participants looking to events ahead

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2022 5:02


APAC stocks were mixed following a soft Wall St. lead heading into month-end; S&P 500 -0.67%.European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.6% after the cash market closed down by 0.9% yesterday.DXY is back below 109.00, price action in G10 FX is largely contained, EUR/USD hovers around parity.Fed's Kashkari (2023 voter) said he was happy to see how Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech was received.Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP (Prelim.), EZ Consumer Confidence (Final), US Consumer Confidence & JOLTS, Speeches from Fed's Williams & Barkin, Supply from Italy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

股海_Ashin晨間碎碎念
0830美國聯準會的升息依據~本週大事!

股海_Ashin晨間碎碎念

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2022 3:42


昨天美股四大指數依然繼續下跌,而接下來要關注的重點在於經濟數據 由於鮑威爾有提到未來判斷升息的條件在於"經濟數據" 以下就是這禮拜要公布的經濟數據: 1. 8/30消費者信心指數:前期95.7,市場預測97.5因為汽油價格下跌,因此預期消費者信心指數會較之前上升 2. 8/30 JOLTs就業報告空缺數:前期10.698M,市場預測11M如果數據下滑就表示就業市場在未來有可能供需均衡 3. 8/31 ADP就業:俗稱小非農,前期128K,市場預測200K觀察美國就業狀況 4. 9/1 ISM製造業指數:前期52.8,市場預測52ISM製造業指數會是一個重點觀察項目,原因在於目前市場認知的經濟正在下行當中,如果公布數字不如市場預期,會讓投資人意會到經濟狀況不佳 5. 9/2 非農就業數字:前期528K,市場預測285K觀察到市場預期非農就業數據明顯下滑,如果真如市場預期就代表失業率處低檔,並造成薪資快速成長,這就會讓聯準會得以將利率維持在一個較高的水位 總之我們不想要看到的是就業市場非常緊俏,這代表給了聯準會更多的升息空間 因此在這麼多數據公布的情況下,操作還是會小心一點!

The Financial Exchange Show
Fed's Grip on Markets & Economy // Over 11M Job Openings In U.S. // CA Gov't Deciding Fast Food Wages - 8/30 (Hour 1)

The Financial Exchange Show

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2022 40:44


(1:55) - Mike and Paul start Tuesday's show discussing the affect of Fed policy across the broader economy.(12:14) - Touching on the slew of job data that will be released this week. The JOLTS report this morning showed there were 11.2 million job openings at the end of July.(23:28) - Talking about California's new legislation that will allow a government panel to set wages for the state's fast food workers.(33:47) - A conversation the role that the job market and inflation play in contributing to how banks fare.

Start Smart
Note to the C-Suite: Don't Be Stupid, Learn From the Data

Start Smart

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 23, 2022 30:34


For a show that's all about the data, today's report from Appcast has hit our sweet spot. Its “2022 Recruitment Marketing Benchmark Report” is based on an analysis of 136 million job ad clicks that led to 8.1 million job applications from 3,100 employers, collected between January and May, 2022.  What's the bottom line?  As Appcast says right at the beginning of its report, “What a time for recruiting!” In this episode of Start Smart, we explore the implications of three of the report's findings: Based on cost-per-application and cost-per -click data, it ain't getting any easier to hire good talent and the c-suite needs to get the message; Based on apply rates, we have a long way to go in capturing the full capabilities of our recruiting technology and optimizing the performance of our ads; and Based on the differences in apply rate among job categories and locations, it is now more critical than ever to carefully target our outreach to job seekers.  It's a lot to unpack, but the message is clear – regardless of the economy's direction, only those employers that make smart investments in their talent acquisition function will be able to prosper in the post-pandemic market. Start Smart is sponsored by Keloh. https://keloh.com/ (Visit their site today). Links mentioned: https://info.appcast.io/whitepaper/2022-spring-update-recruitment-marketing-benchmark-report-website (2022 Recruitment Marketing Benchmark Report - Appcast) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm (June job openings decrease; hires and total separations change little – JOLTS) https://tatech.org/the-soporific-job-posting/ (The Soporific Job Posting – TATech) https://tatech.org/start-smart-podcast-ep8-recruiting-grabs-a-seat-at-the-table-next-to-hr/ (Recruiting Grabs a Seat at the Table Next to HR) Mentioned in this episode: This episode is brought to you by Talent.com Talent.com is the solution to finding talent, your way. Work with the fast-growing, tech-savvy company dedicated to making the search for candidates easy. Are you looking to fill one job? 1,000 jobs? Do you need a way to integrate your recruitment technology? Talent.com can find the answers for your business, on time and on budget. Start growing with Talent.com. https://start-smart.captivate.fm/talent (Talent.com)

Smartinvesting2000
Jobs Report, Job Openings, Credit Card Increases, Asset Under Management, Secondary Market, Recession, Inflation & Earning Season

Smartinvesting2000

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2022 59:23


Jobs Report Friday's job report was a good surprise showing non-farm payroll increased by 528,000 jobs, this caused the unemployment rate to fall to 3.5%. We have now recovered all the jobs lost during the pandemic returning to levels not seen since February 2020. Average hourly earnings were up 5.2% over last year but it appears that wage growth could be slowing. In a separate survey from Greenhouse a recruitment software company said that 70% of workers are optimistic about the job market. 66% of people surveyed said if their wages were cut, they would look for a new job. There are still about 5.9 million people in the labor force who want a job, based on the latest JOLT's report there is still nearly two jobs for each person looking for a job. The biggest gains in jobs were found in the Leisure and Hospitality, 96,000. These are not low paying jobs any longer, the nationwide average is $20.22/hr which is 26% higher than four years ago. Remember this is a national average, wages will be higher in California then in Arkansas. Job growth was also seen in Professional and Business services up 89,000, Healthcare up 70, 000, Government climbed 57,000, lastly construction jobs increased 32,000. The good news scared the markets and pushed the ten-year treasury to 2.84% with concerns of sharply higher and longer rate increases. Job Openings The JOLTS report came out this week and while the headline numbers may look concerning it is important to point out the levels, we have been seeing were extremely elevated and not sustainable. Total job openings of 10.7 million at the end of June missed the estimate of 11.14 million. This was a decline of 605,000 or 5.4% compared to the month of May and was well off the recent all-time high in March of 11.86 million. The level of job openings is well above the level of available workers as the difference is still 4.8 million. This means there were still 1.8 open jobs per available worker! Also, to give you an idea of where we were at pre pandemic, in December 2019 total job openings stood at 6.7 million. This was an elevated level historically and also, during a very healthy job market. Overall, this job's market still remains very strong. US Dollar We have been talking about the strong dollar that we are currently enjoying along with some of the benefits and unfortunately some of the negatives. Another example is recently the US dollar could by 80 Indian rupees, a high that has never been seen in history. Using the most recent trade report from 2019 (2020 was during Covid and not useable data) shows the US exported to India $59 billion but our imports were $87 billion. Our strong dollar means we will be paying less for the imports from India, hopefully we will not see a decline in what we export to them. Credit Card Increases Credit card balances increased $46 billion in the second quarter bringing total credit card debt to $890 billion. Inflation became the immediate concern, but maybe that is not the entire reason. Remember how much traveling has exploded in the second quarter with airlines and hotels seeing their businesses boom. When's the last time you were at the airport and saw someone pay cash? Most of these reservations and transactions are done online via credit card. The JOLTs report came out yesterday and was strong at 10.6 million job openings. When people have a job, they feel confident that they won't be losing it anytime soon and feel more comfortable running up some debt on credit cards. Two other facts should be pointed out. In the final quarter of 2019 credit card debt hit $930 billion, roughly $40 billion above where we are now. Also, consumers do have $2 trillion more in savings today than back in 2019. Assets Under Management A recent survey conducted by Bank of America of 300 fund managers with assets under management of $800 billion backed my optimism for our portfolio come the end of the year. It was revealed that cash holdings now stand at 6.1% which is the highest since October 2001, a month after the terrible event of 9/11. This may not mean that the decline is now over in equities, but it could signal that perhaps the worst is behind us. It was also notable that responses to the survey listed the three most popular sectors which included consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare. Unpopular in the survey was technology and consumer discretionary. Anyone want to guess what popular sectors Wilsey Asset Management agrees with? Please be aware we will not confirm nor deny. Secondary Market Around 6 to 12 months ago we did a post about the crazy secondary sneaker market with sales of sneakers going at outrageous prices. We posted this was happening because of all the free money that was being given out and when the free money stopped the market on secondary sneakers would drop like a deflated basketball. Well that time has come with a glut of sneakers on the secondary market and prices are falling by nearly a third. Just like the meme stocks and cryptocurrencies, when the demand drops so do the prices, and if you did invest in some limited edition sneakers you may want to be one of the many who are unloading now to get better prices. If not, you may be using them for playing basketball on the weekends. As I write this post, I also remember writing another post about the high-end luxury purses and how they were going for outrageous prices. I have not read anything yet on their decline, but it would not surprise me to see that within the next six months as well. If people would just be satisfied earning around 10% on good quality equities many more people would have a much better retirement. Recession 42% of Americans say they are not impacted financially from the recession but have become cautious with spending. However, consumer sentiment is at the lowest level on record going back to the late 70s which means consumers are more pessimistic than the 911 attack, the tech bust and the great recession from 2007 to 2009. On the positive side unemployment stands near record lows, savings for consumers are $2 trillion higher than before the pandemic and overall consumers seem resilient. So, what is a difference this time? The only thing I can think of is people have less faith in this current administration in Washington than they have in a long time. Inflation I've been predicting we will see inflation by the end of the year somewhere between 4% and 6%. While that is good news from these levels, the problem is that the Fed's inflation target is 2%. This may result in a repeat of the 1980 and 81-82 double dip recession. If inflation gets stuck in the 4% to 6% range in 2023 the Fed may once again start increasing interest rates in late spring or early summer causing two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. In summary this means 2022 and 2023 will be low growth years which do not favor growth stocks and investors will have to find good values in value stocks along with being patient and happy with returns in the 6% to 10% range and high volatility. Earning Season We're in the middle of earning season and you may be hearing or will be hearing some companies talk about the effects of the strong dollar on their earnings. Nearly a third of S&P 500 earnings come from overseas which can negatively affect their earnings. Be aware this negative affect could be gone in a year or so.   Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Medicare Irmad  (Income related monthly adjusted amount)

Marketplace All-in-One
The labor market may be cooling off, just a little bit

Marketplace All-in-One

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 4, 2022 7:41


The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ JOLTS report is out, and it indicates that the labor market may be in the early stages of cooling off. We talk about what the report means, and if businesses are feeling less hiring pressure. The Bank of England raised rates today in its biggest increase since 1995. And, horses are back working in French wine country, bucking their mechanical tractor counterparts.

Marketplace Morning Report
The labor market may be cooling off, just a little bit

Marketplace Morning Report

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 4, 2022 7:41


The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ JOLTS report is out, and it indicates that the labor market may be in the early stages of cooling off. We talk about what the report means, and if businesses are feeling less hiring pressure. The Bank of England raised rates today in its biggest increase since 1995. And, horses are back working in French wine country, bucking their mechanical tractor counterparts.

The Investing Podcast
August 3, 2022 - Daily Market Briefing

The Investing Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2022 17:53


Ben, Andrew, and Tom discuss speaker Pelosi's controversial trip to Taiwan, OPEC+ pledging to increase oil production by 100k barrels/day (the smallest increase in OPEC+ history), a relatively uneventful JOLTS job report, Jim Bullard's (St. Louis fed president) comments on CNBC, Robinhood laying off 23% of its work force, and earnings results out of PYPL, MCHP, AMD, and SBUX.For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures

MarketBeat Minute
MarketBeat Minute(2022-08-03)

MarketBeat Minute

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2022 1:00


Equity markets held steady at near-term highs for a second day despite signs of weakening in the economy. The little-watched JOLTs report, a measure of job availability within the economy, contracted in June by the second fasted pace on record and to the lowest level in nearly a year as businesses reel in their spending plans. The news is only the latest in a string of reports that suggests peaking within the economy and the onset of lingering stagnation, if not deepening, recession. Later this week, a report from the ISM and the Non-Farm Payrolls figure could move the market as well. The market is expecting job gains to slow on a month-to-month basis, and the figure could come in weaker than expected, which might be good news in the long run. A slowdown in hiring could help ease inflationary pressures in wages and consumer spending and get the economy back on the right track. If not, the JOLTs report could be the first signal of a worsening economic crisis caused by rampant inflation.

The Investing Podcast
August 2, 2022 - Daily Market Briefing

The Investing Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2022 12:35


Ben, Andrew, and Tom discuss Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan, a few positive reads from the ISM manufacturing report, the outlook for the JOLTS job openings report, earnings out of CAT and Uber, and Andrew's shift back to the old-fashioned taxicab. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures

Tips for Work and Life with Andrew LaCivita
Job Market Update July 2022 | How to Evaluate Employers, Ask for More Money

Tips for Work and Life with Andrew LaCivita

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2022 41:35


Join me for today's podcast to keep yourself up-to-date on the job market so you can make the proper adjustments whether you're a job seeker or job stayer! Inflation 9.1%. Housing, up 5.6%. It's fine to look at a snapshot in time, but if you want to know what's going to happen when, you need to look at trends. The JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) indicates job openings are on a two-month slide. The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) shows contraction in personal spending four months in a row. These are tell-tale trends! Listen in to find out where we are, where we're going, and what you can do about it when choosing a potential employer or asking for a pay raise from your current one! If you'd like to build a great career and lead a rewarding life, check out some of these other places where I share my teachings: 1. Check out the milewalk Academy, my coaching and training site, for freemiums and premiums. 2. I have hundreds of educational and inspirational videos on my YouTube Channel. 3. Grab any of my three books related to interviewing, hiring, and goal setting. All can be found on my Amazon Author Page. 4. Follow me on Instagram, LinkedIn, and Twitter. 5. Stay in touch with me in your email inbox by joining my newsletter here! --Andy

Smartinvesting2000
Labor Market, Employment, Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks, Car Manufacturers, Pfizer Vaccine & S&P500

Smartinvesting2000

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2022 59:30


Labor Market Friday's job report will be a very important indicator for how the job market is holding up with inflation concerns and rising interest rates, but today we got the data for the JOLTs report. In May the labor market remained strong as there were still 11.25 million job openings. This far outweighed those counted as unemployed as it stood at 5.95 million people. This means there are still about 1.9 openings per available worker. The quits rate also declined but it still stood at 4.27 million for the month of May. While both data points have fallen from recent record highs, overall, I still believe the labor market remains strong. Due to the strong labor market and no signs of excessive leverage, I believe the recession being discussed will be mild. Employment The employment numbers did not disappoint today, and they provide further evidence for an economy that I believe will be ok. The establishment survey showed payrolls grew 372,000 in the month of June which blew past the estimate of 250,000. The previous 2 months were revised lower by a total of 74,000 jobs, but overall, I would still say it was a good gain. The establishment survey is now just 524,000 jobs lower than pre-pandemic levels and if you look at the private sector it is actually 140,000 payrolls higher than February 2020. The household survey showed unemployed persons now stood at 5.9 million, which is just slightly higher than February 2020 when it was 5.7 million. Two areas that remain troubling are the labor force participation rate and wage inflation. The labor force participation rate still stands at 62.2% which is below the February 2020 rate of 63.4%. Looking at average hourly earnings we saw an increase of 5.4% over the last 12 months, but that is still well below the 8%+ inflation rates we have been seeing. Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks Numbers are in for the first six months of 2022 and for the first half of the year growth stocks fell 25% compared with value stocks falling 12%. That is a gap of 13% which is the widest in 20 years. I believe the difference in the next six months will be reduced but still expect value to outperform growth stocks. Car Manufacturers Normally going into a recession or a slowdown, American car makers and their stocks get hit pretty hard. So far that appears to be the case with falling stock prices, but if one looks deeper investors should be less concerned this time around. In past recessions car makers were stuck with large inventories of vehicles that they had to discount dramatically to move the inventory. This then caused them to take large losses. That is not the case this time as the demand may not even be met in a slowing environment due to extremely low inventories. Another interesting point is that generally 40% of sales come from buyers with incomes under $50,000 who are hurt the most in a slowdown in the economy. Today that number has fallen to just 25%. It appears that two car manufacturers in the US could be drastically underpriced. Pfizer Vaccine I am pro-business and believe in letting market forces work, but I'm very disappointed with Pfizer‘s handling of the Covid vaccination. I'm not talking about the effectiveness or non-effectiveness. I'm talking about how they just raised their price to the US government by 27%. I think it is a shame that they would take advantage of not just the US government but also taxpayers who are paying for this. I'm also disappointed that the administration did not fight this and tell Pfizer the 27% increase is not justified. And don't forget how they have increased vaccinations all the way down to six-month-old babies which I think is uncalled for based on the minimal risk that kids face from Covid. S&P 500 Even with the major selloff we have seen this year, I still have concerns about the S&P 500. The top 5 companies still make up close to 22% of the entire index. Those companies are Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA). The major problem here is all these companies remain expensive as the average forward P/E for the group is over 30x. I also worry about the growth expectations for these companies. With Apple in particular I believe they are one bad iPhone cycle away from a major pullback in their stock. People like to ignore the fact the iPhone sales still make up over half of the company's revenue and if you add Mac sales to that those products account for about 60% of total sales. They have other areas of growth, but a decline in these product sales would outweigh the growth in other areas. I've questioned it before, but other than a nicer camera are the new iPhones really that much different? Could this be the year iPhone sales take a hit? Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said on a recent earnings call that he expected smartphone unit volume to decline by around 5% versus last year. Analysts were expecting growth around 5%. And yes, Apple is a customer of Micron. Be careful of these companies that still remain expensive, especially with many other great opportunities now available in the market.   Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Social Security “Spousal” vs “Survivor” benefits  

Novus Capital
NovusCast - 08 de Julho 2022

Novus Capital

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2022 16:24


Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠No cenário internacional, foram divulgados diversos dados americanos: de atividade (ISM de serviços), que surpreendeu positivamente; de vagas abertas no mercado de trabalho (Jolts), ainda muito elevadas; e os números oficiais de emprego (Payroll), que indicaram um mercado de trabalho ainda forte. Além disso, houve comunicação de diversos membros do Fed, indicando que o natural é seguir no plano de vôo inicial – aumento de 75 bps na próxima reunião, e depois desaceleração, mas sem definições adicionais por conta da incerteza a respeito dos dados futuros. No Brasil, houve a divulgação do IPCA fechado de junho, que já mostrou impacto nos combustíveis (ainda não por conta da limitação no ICMS), mas com núcleos ainda bastante pressionados – expectativa é que os dados de julho e agosto sejam bem baixos. Além disso, a “PEC das bondades” segue em tramitação no congresso. Por fim, os dados de atividade (PMIs) indicaram bastante força. ⁠A semana dessa vez fechou mais positiva: as bolsas americanas subiram – S&P500 +1,94%, e o Nasdaq +4,66%; o juro (10 anos) fechou bastante no início da semana mas terminou abrindo 20 bps; enquanto o euro desvalorizou 2,2%, por conta da parada de importante gasoduto duto russo. Por aqui, a bolsa (Ibovespa) também fechou em alta (1,35%), o juro (jan/27) abriu 26 bps, e o real valorizou 1,45%. Na próxima semana teremos mais dados de atividade, de inflação nos Estados Unidos (CPI), e a votação da “PEC das bondades” na Câmara dos Deputados.   ⁠⁠Não deixe de acompanhar pra ficar por dentro do que rolou na semana e o que esperar da próxima!⁠ ⁠⁠

The Financial Exchange Show
Job Openings at 11M+ // Mortgage Rates Down, As Is Demand // Chinese Chipmakers - 7/6 (Hour 2)

The Financial Exchange Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2022 40:41


(1:20) - Beginning the second hour taking a look at the JOLTS report for May, which showed 11.3 million job openings in the U.S.(14:19) - Touching on the slight decline in mortgage rates and the lack of demand for mortgages as a whole.(23:41) - A conversation about Chinese chipmakers, which are surging as the U.S. looks to curb regulations in the industry.(33:47) - Stack roulette.

Monday Morning Minutes
MMM Episode 72: A Red First Half for the Record Books

Monday Morning Minutes

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 1, 2022 28:07


With the June 30 close of 1H2022, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau start (2:21) by looking at the month, quarterly and first-half-of-2022 returns for the stock market. These left the S&P 500 down just under 20% for the first six months of the year. The best-performing sector for that period was Energy, up 31.8%; the worst performer, Consumer Discretionary, down 32½%. Investors learned the hard way that 60-40 stock bond portfolios offered no protection from the year's pain. Putting things into perspective, Samuel Lau notes that a proxy constructed by Deutsch Bank (8:15) shows that the 10-year U.S. Treasury in 2022 had its worst first half of the year since 1788. Touring the fixed income landscape (10:38), Jeff and Sam observe the Bloomberg U.S. Bond Aggregate, the widely followed proxy for the high-grade domestic bond market, lost 10.4% in 1H2022, led by a 14.4% loss in investment-grade corporate credit. The podcast discussed (12:40) an almost 11% pullback in June in commodities as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, although that benchmark holds a gain of 18% year-to-date. In their review of macro news for the week of June 27-July 1 (15:52), the podcast hosts sought to temper people's take on a hotter-than-expected 1.9% month-over-month gain in April by the S&P CoreLogic 20-City Home Price Index, bringing its YoY return to 21.2%. Jeff Mayberry points out that April excludes the subsequent run-up in mortgage rates. He cautions people to wait for the housing index's May print. A June “wobble” in the ISM Manufacturing series (17:55) caught Mayberry's eye. While still in expansionary territory, the ISM Manufacturing index came in at 53.0 versus expectations of 54½. Meanwhile, the new orders component of the index printed 49.2, the first time since the COVID-19 recession of 2020. The market week of July 5-9, although abbreviated, promises to be a charged with macro news (22:24). Reports due include May durable goods (final) on Tuesday; on Wednesday, ISM Services, JOLTS jobs, Federal Open Market Committee Meeting minutes; and Friday nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rates.

Smartinvesting2000
April Jolts Report, May Employment Numbers, A Major Reason Why We Do Not Recommend Leaving A 401k At An Old Employer, and Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Tax Filing vs. Planning

Smartinvesting2000

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 6, 2022 59:26


April Jolts Report Although job openings declined in the recent JOLTs report they still remained elevated. The report showed job openings of 11.4 million in the month of April which was the second highest on record behind the upwardly revised 11.8 million in the month of March.  May Employment Numbers Overall, the job numbers were good this morning as 390,000 jobs were recouped in the month of May. Leisure and hospitality continued to lead the way as there was a gain of 84,000 jobs.  A Major Reason Why We Do Not Recommend Leaving A 401k At An Old Employer According to a recent estimate, at the end of 2021 nearly 25 million 401k accounts or about 20% of all 401k assets were counted as either lost or forgotten. This is a major reason why we do not recommend leaving a 401k at an old employer. Many times, your best option is to move the funds to an IRA rollover, so you take control and do not forget about those old accounts. If you are unsure if you had a 401k at a previous job, we highly recommend contacting your previous employer/HR to see if there are any funds in an account you may have forgotten about. If your old employer no longer exists, you do have a few different options. The National Registry of Unclaimed Retirement Benefits is a secure site that allows you to search for lost plans using your Social Security number. The National Association of Unclaimed Property Administrators operates a database that lets you search for plans by your first and last name. Your old employer may have rolled over your 401(k) into an IRA, in this case you can use FreeERISA to track it down. Finally, the Department of Labor's abandoned plan database might offer some updated information on plans that have been or are about to be discontinued. Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Tax Filing vs. Planning  

TD Ameritrade Network
Movement In Bitcoin, JOLTs Today, Inflation Concerns: Recent Market Action

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 1, 2022 11:55


There's a number of tailwinds that were brewing, says Bill Baruch. He gives an overview of recent market action. He looks at the charts for the e-mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures (/NQ), 30-year treasury bond futures (/ZB), and crude oil (/CL). He also talks about how the JOLTs released at 10am ET today and the May employment situation report will be released Friday. He discusses how Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, concedes ‘she was wrong on the path inflation' would take. He then analyzes recent movement in bitcoin (/BTC). Tune in to find out more.

The Metaculus Journal
Will the Great Resignation Spread?

The Metaculus Journal

Play Episode Listen Later May 31, 2022 7:27


https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9527/will-the-great-resignation-spread/ In 2021 there were many stories about workers quitting jobs. Pundits dubbed this phenomenon the Great Resignation. Statistically, the best measure of quits in the United States comes from the government's Job Openings and Labor Market Survey, or JOLTS. As of this writing, the latest release from the Department of Labor covered November activity. It reported that “the quits rate increased to 3.0 percent, matching a series high last seen in September.” So we are seeing the Great Resignation in the data. As background, the Labor Department reports three major monthly national surveys. Two of these, the Household Survey and the Establishment Survey, have been used for many decades. The JOLTS survey is more recent, with no data prior to the 21st century. The Household Survey, conducted by the Census Bureau but reported by the Labor Department, contacts a sample of 60,000 households in order to find the employment status of the adults. This survey is used to calculate the unemployment rate.

Monday Morning Minutes
MMM Episode 67: Improving Sentiment, Curious Bitcoin, Squishy Fedspeak

Monday Morning Minutes

Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2022 34:06


Surveying the week of May 23-27, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau (2:01) take note of improved investor sentiment in the form of a rally in stocks, allowing the S&P 500 to skirt the -20.00% definition of a bear market. The improvement in stocks was accompanied by lower bond yields. While bitcoin has typically behaved as a risk asset, the cryptocurrency was down about 1% on the week as of mid-Friday May 27 (8:38). Jeff Mayberry asks whether that move in bitcoin is contradicting the more optimistic message of the week's rally in stocks, or whether bitcoin's decline, muted compared to larger losses for other cryptocurrencies, suggests technical selling pressures are abating for the marquee cryptocurrency. Turning to the week's macro news, the cohosts zero in on the release of minutes of May 4 meeting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (10:34). The minutes took note of tightening financial conditions, Fed expectations of a rebound in GDP in the second quarter of the year and PCE price inflation on a path to near the Fed's 2% inflation target in 2024. “They are being a little optimistic,” Samuel Lau says, “relative to what the market's thinking in terms of the progression of PCE price inflation.” While the minutes couched the statement in what Jeff Mayberry describes as a “squishy” turn of rhetoric, the FOMC for the first time raised the possibility of the Fed's selling Agency mortgage-backed securities. For the week of May 30-June 3 (25:28), the hosts point to the March reading of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite City Home Price Index on Monday; the beginning of quantitative tightening, the ISM manufacturing survey for May and JOLTS job opens report on Wednesday; and the ISM services and May labor market reports on Friday.

MJ Morning Show on Q105
MJ Morning Show, May 23, 2022

MJ Morning Show on Q105

Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2022 173:09


In today's show... Why does MJ seem out of it this morning? The 911 call of a McCrazy woman at McDonalds Fun facts about monkeypox! But what you don't want to miss is hearing us zap Shorty Shane as we give Jolts for Bolts tickets!

Smartinvesting2000
April Employment Numbers and JOLTS Report, Declines in the Markets, Foreign Currencies, Money Market Funds and Special Guest Robert Behic

Smartinvesting2000

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2022 59:30


April Employment Numbers Employment numbers came out on Friday and while unemployment rates stayed the same as last month at 3.6%, not as good as the expected 3.5%, the economy still recovered 428,000 jobs above the estimate of 391,000 jobs.  Declines in the Markets If you're feeling a little bit uncomfortable with declines in the markets, it is justified.  Foreign Currencies It is no secret that inflation numbers are running high, but I do see inflation numbers cooling off over the next six months for various reasons. One of the reasons is a strong US dollar as our interest rates continue to increase.    Special Guest: Robert Behic Robert Behic runs Countywide Mortgage Lending which has been named one of the TOP 100 MORTGAGE COMPANIES IN AMERICA every year since 2012.  He has been serving the community now for over 30 years, and has also been recognized as one of the top 1% producing loan officers in the country for multiple years. Over the course of Robert's career he has helped thousands of people experience the joy and benefits of owning a home. He enjoys helping people who thought they couldn't afford to buy a home and he even helps his clients with credit repair when needed. Coaching families and individuals through the process of buying a home for the first time, and helping seniors with new and improved reverse mortgages, are both areas of Robert's expertise. He is very active within the local community, including supporting military organizations and children's causes. Countywide Mortgage was proud to be recognized by the Better Business Bureau when they received the coveted Torch award for Ethics in the business marketplace.  As they say at Countywide, "It all starts with a conversation".   Discussed Topics: What is going on the mortgage market / Any important information to know about the mortgage market The Purchase market is still very strong. Where refinancing has slowed to a crawl. Our Belief the value of Real Estate will be the same or greater at the end of 2022 than it was at the beginning. 2023 could have a different outcome for home values. Investors continue to buy rentals. First Time Homebuyers and the population boom.

AP Audio Stories
Preliminary 3.3 magnitude quake jolts South Carolina

AP Audio Stories

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2022 0:49


South Carolina Earthquake Intro and Voicer

TD Ameritrade Network
Are Covid Fears Still impacting The Labor Market?

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later May 3, 2022 6:35


The JOLTS report highlights the strength of the jobs market and should dispel residual concerns about near-term GDP growth, says John Worth. He and Richard Wahlquist discuss the stat of the U.S. labor market, as well as the expectations for Friday's employment report. They also talk about how the pandemic is still going and Covid fears are continuing to keep people on the sidelines. Tune in to find out more.

NAB Morning Call
RBA loses a little patience

NAB Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 3, 2022 15:12


Wednesday 4th May 2022 On today's podcast NAB's Ivan Colhoun talks through the RBA's higher-than-expected rate hike yesterday. Taylor Nugent adds that it was clearly more than expected, given the rise in front-end bond yields after the meeting, buoyed on by more hawkish rhetoric from the RBA's Governor Lowe after the meeting. Next it's the FOMC, early tomorrow morning, with a 50 basis point rise still anticipated. The JOLTs numbers indicated the labour market is still very tight and the challenge will be to restrain wage inflation. Job numbers and wages data tonight and Friday might add fuel to the fire. This morning, lots of focus on wage inflation in New Zealand, with employment data out and a press conference from the RBNZ.

Monday Morning Minutes
MMM Episode 63: Where Are We in the Commodities Cycle?

Monday Morning Minutes

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2022 42:02


After reviewing month and year-to-date market returns (1:58) and the April 25-29 week's macro news (10:25), Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau turn to the broad topic of commodities (15:06), including asset class's diversification benefits relative to stocks and bonds, the cyclical factors that have supported surging prices and the structural supply and demand factors that could support commodity prices over the longer term, particularly signatories of the Paris Agreement to convert to green energy sources. “When we talk about renewable energy, you have things like solar, wind and electric vehicles, all of which are commodity intensive,” especially in terms of industrial metals, notes Sam Lau. The big macroeconomic news of the week was the 1.4% month-over-month decline in U.S. gross domestic product versus the consensus expectation of a 1.0% increase. “The market didn't seem to move much on that number even though it was a big disappointment,” Jeff Mayberry observes. The week of May 2-6 (35:14) could be a volatile one, he notes, given a heavy news schedule with, among other items, the ISM manufacturing number for April due Monday, JOLTS job openings on Tuesday and most importantly the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Nomura Podcasts
The Week Ahead – 29 April 2022

Nomura Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2022 29:26


In this episode of our Week Ahead series, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week. In the US we'll be focused squarely on the Fed meeting as well as NFP, ISM and JOLTs data. In Europe we have the threat of gas supplies bring cut off, the Bank of England, Euro area producer price inflation and central bank speakers. We then have the RBA meeting, lockdowns in China, key data and the current state of Global energy markets all to discuss.

Messi Ronaldo Neymar and Mbappe
Stillbirth Jolts Cristiano Ronaldo | Manchester United F.C.

Messi Ronaldo Neymar and Mbappe

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 20, 2022 3:24


Cristiano Ronaldo and his girlfriend Georgina Rodriguez revealed in a social media post the birth of a baby daughter at the same time as revealing their son's death to stillbirth. Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro GOIH ComM is a Portuguese professional footballer who plays as a forward for Premier League club Manchester United and captains the Portugal national team. Manchester United Football Club is a professional football club based in Old Trafford, Greater Manchester, England, that competes in the Premier League, the top flight of English football. Stillbirth is further classified as either early, late, or term. An early stillbirth is a fetal death occurring between 20 and 27 completed weeks of pregnancy. A late stillbirth occurs between 28 and 36 completed pregnancy weeks. A term stillbirth occurs between 37 or more completed pregnancy weeks.

NewsWare‘s Trade Talk
NewsWare's Trade Talk: Tuesday, March 29

NewsWare‘s Trade Talk

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 29, 2022 17:53


S&P Futures are continuing to push higher this morning. Ukraine Russia peace talks happening today in Turkey have created positive sentiment for the markets and are lifting the European market higher this morning. Oil prices continue to slip due to demand concerns as a result of the lockdown in Shanghai. The Justice Department on Monday endorsed legislation forbidding large digital platforms from favoring their own products and services over competitors', marking the Biden administration's first full-throated support of the antitrust measure. Economic data due out today include reports on Consumer Confidence and the JOLTs index. Tomorrow's GDP report and Thursday's PCI report will likely create market volatility.

The Financial Exchange Show
Job Openings Fall Slightly // Labor Market & Economic Outlook // Start Waiting For Your EV - 3/29 (Hour 2)

The Financial Exchange Show

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 29, 2022 40:32


(0:38) - Barry and Paul begin hour two with a look at the JOLTS report, which showed job opening ease slightly from record highs.(12:43) - Diana Furchtgott-Roth, who is a Professor of Economics at George Washington University and former Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor, joined the show for an in-depth look at the labor market and the economy as a whole.(22:20) - A discussion about the rising popularity in electric vehicles and how waitlists for said EV's are becoming more commonplace.(34:59) - Talking about Walmart's decision to stop selling cigarettes in select stores across the U.S.