Podcasts about The Jolts

Peter Schiff on the fake jobs beat, Trump's trade ultimatum, yields at 2007 highs, a 162% tariff bill, and why the Fed is the last buyer.

The AI Capex Bubble Is Starting to Look Crazy I keep coming back to the same question when I look at the incredible amount of money being poured into artificial intelligence: Where is all of this capital ultimately going to earn a return?   Since the beginning of 2024, roughly $500 billion has been spent on chips, $350 billion on power infrastructure, $200 billion on construction and $100 billion on networking. That's approximately $1.1 trillion of AI infrastructure spending in less than three years. For perspective, the entire S&P 500 spent roughly $575 billion on capital expenditures in 2021 right before ChatGPT even existed.   And the spending is accelerating.  In 2021 The four major hyperscalers—Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta— spent about $125 billion on new plants and equipment. It's now estimated that they will spend $1 trillion, which is about half of total capital spending for the S&P 500 and the companies could spend roughly $3.7 trillion through 2029. Add companies such as Oracle, OpenAI, SpaceX and others, and total AI spending could approach $6 trillion by the end of the decade.   Those numbers are almost difficult to comprehend. And here's where I think the historical comparisons to railroads and the internet become interesting. Yes, those were enormous infrastructure buildouts too. But the economic opportunity created by those technologies was incredibly clear.   The railroad connected producers with consumers, opened new markets, lowered transportation costs and allowed goods to move across the country. The internet created entirely new businesses and fundamentally changed commerce, advertising, communications and how we work.   I don't see AI in quite the same light. I see enormous potential, but I don't yet see the same obvious economic expansion that will ultimately justify trillions of dollars of infrastructure spending.   And now we're starting to hear another argument: "Look at the cloud. Look at how much money the cloud is generating. That's proof the AI infrastructure will earn a return."   I'm not sure I buy that. That's a little like building railroads and then saying: "Look at how much money we're making selling railcars. Look at the demand for locomotives and railroad equipment. Clearly the railroad investment is paying off." The problem is that's not where the ultimate economic return came from. The return came from transporting goods and people. The railroad was valuable because businesses used it to create economic activity.   The same is true of the internet. The real economic payoff wasn't simply selling servers and networking equipment. It came from everything built on top of the internet. So with AI, I think the ultimate question is not: "How much revenue are Nvidia, the cloud companies and data-center operators generating?" It's: "How much NEW economic value is being created by all of this computing capacity?"   That's a much harder question. Because if we're essentially spending trillions of dollars building increasingly powerful computers, data centers and power infrastructure so companies can sell more computing capacity to other companies that are also spending billions on AI infrastructure, we need to be careful about confusing activity with economic returns.   And this is where the bubble argument gets interesting. A recent Barron's article points out that historically, transformative technology booms have been able to absorb enormous amounts of capital before eventually running into trouble. Its "rule of 25" suggests that previous infrastructure booms became particularly vulnerable when investment approached roughly 25% of GDP. The railroad boom saw about $2.5 billion of rail spending before the 1873 panic and GDP was about $10 billion a year. Internet infrastructure saw about $1.5 trillion of investment before the bust and back then GDP was only about $6 trillion. For today's roughly $30 trillion U.S. economy, that would be around $7.5 trillion before we saw problems.   That's being used as evidence that the AI boom has plenty of room to run. And maybe it does. But here's the funny part. We're increasingly hearing very smart people say: "Yes, this is going to end badly." "Yes, there is too much capital being deployed." "Yes, there will eventually be excess capacity." "Yes, the financing is getting complicated." But then comes the qualifier: "Just not yet." That might be the most dangerous phrase in investing. Because that's exactly how bubbles work.   When I look at $1.1 trillion already spent, and potentially $6 trillion by the end of the decade, increasingly creative financing structures and companies racing to build capacity before we fully understand the ultimate demand, it starts to feel less like a normal technology cycle and more like a capital spending boom.   Maybe the bubble doesn't burst this year. Maybe it doesn't burst next year. But when almost everyone agrees there is a bubble and the only disagreement is about when it ends that's usually when I start paying very close attention. The technology can be real. The demand can be real. The companies can be profitable. And it can still be a bubble.   The Stock Market Today Resembles the Stock Market of 1901 Some people believe they are witnessing something completely different in the stock market today and that what is happening now has never happened before. They believe the market will continue rising forever, and that there is simply no way they can lose. History tells us otherwise.   Time and time again, we see the same patterns repeat themselves. Surprisingly, the stock market of 1901 had many of the same characteristics we are seeing today. For starters, there was a tremendous amount of trading back then like there is today. In 1901, the turnover rate on the New York Stock Exchange reached 319%, meaning stocks were changing hands roughly every 16 weeks.   They also had something that resembles today's prediction markets. Back then, they were called bucket shops, where people could bet on whether a stock would move up or down. Many were led to believe they were participating in the same type of opportunity as wealthy investors. In reality, they were speculating and many people who didn't know better confused gambling with investing.   Leverage was also widely used. Investors could put up as little as $10 and control as much as $300 worth of stock. That kind of leverage could produce enormous gains when markets were rising, but it could also lead to devastating losses when they turned.   And this is where human psychology comes into play. People's emotions are often far stronger than their logic. The more the market rises, the more people begin to believe it will continue rising and that a crash is unlikely to happen anytime soon.   When investors become excited because they are making easy money, they can lose sight of the difference between investing and gambling. The problem is that gambling can feel like investing when you're winning.   The market's performance in the early 1900s is a good example. The stock market rose 19% in 1900, another 20% in 1901 and 5% in 1902. Then came 1903, when the market declined 23%. But the good times returned, and over the next three years the market gained roughly 69%. Then came the Panic of 1907, and the stock market fell roughly 30% that year.   The lesson isn't that today's market will follow the exact same path. It won't. The lesson is that human behavior hasn't changed much in more than a century. Greed, fear, leverage, speculation and the belief that "this time is different" have been part of financial markets for generations.   As the saying goes, history may not repeat itself, but it definitely rhymes. Investors would be wise to study those rhymes and remember that making money in a rising market doesn't necessarily mean you're investing wisely. Sometimes, it simply means you haven't experienced the other side of the cycle yet.   The Jobs Report Was Much Stronger Than Expected Today's jobs report was a big surprise. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, well above the roughly 53,000 expected and the strongest monthly gain in five months. Even more importantly, July was revised from a loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 21,000. June was also revised higher, meaning the previous two months were collectively revised up by 55,000 jobs.   The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, but there was an interesting development underneath that number: the labor force increased by 683,000 people, while household employment increased by 569,000. The labor-force participation rate also rose from 61.4% to 61.6%. It is still down by 0.5% since January, but it's a positive to see it moving in the right direction.   So, we had substantially more people entering the workforce without the unemployment rate increasing. That's a pretty good sign.   There was also a significant difference between industries. Food services and drinking places added 59,000 jobs, while local government education added another 42,000 and construction added about 22,000.  Health care, which has been a large source of employment growth, saw a gain of just 13,000, compared with the monthly average of 32,000 over the prior 12 months.   On the other hand, the information sector continued to lose jobs as information-related industries reported a loss of 23,000, putting the 12-month average at a loss of 8,000. This is worth watching given the impact of automation and AI on certain white-collar industries.   Another positive: the average workweek increased to 34.4 hours, the highest level since March 2024. More hours worked can be just as important economically as more workers being hired.   But there is one area that isn't quite as strong: wages. Average hourly earnings increased just 3.1% from a year ago. That's a healthy increase, but wage growth continues to moderate, and this marked the lowest growth in 5 years.   And then we have the JOLTS data. The latest report showed 7.27 million job openings in July, that's approximately 1.1 job openings for every unemployed person.   That is an important distinction. The labor market is clearly cooler than it was a few years ago, but there are still more available jobs than unemployed workers. Put it all together and I think today's report tells us something pretty simple: The labor market is still healthy.   Job growth has cooled considerably from the boom years, but unemployment remains low, the labor force is expanding, job openings remain above the number of unemployed workers, and today's payroll number was substantially stronger than expected.   This also makes the Federal Reserve's decision much more difficult. If the Fed's primary concern is a rapidly deteriorating labor market, today's report doesn't provide much evidence for that argument. Now the focus shifts back to inflation.   If inflation remains sticky while employment is holding up this well, the argument for aggressive rate cuts becomes much harder to make. The next big test for the Fed is going to be the inflation data.   Sports betting as an investment strategy? This is crazy. According to a Siena Poll, more than a quarter (27%) of Americans and over half (52%) of men aged 18 to 49 say they have an active online sportsbook account. That's not a problem to me if you view sports gambling for what it is…. Which is gambling. The bigger problem I see is another recent survey from Betterment showed 52% of Gen Z investors (those born between 1997 and 2007) have redirected money intended for investing to sports bets.   Think about that. We're not talking about occasionally putting $20 on a football game for fun. Some people are actually incorporating sports betting into their financial plans, viewing it as a way to build wealth, pay off debt, buy a home or reach other financial goals.   People need to understand that gambling is a losing strategy in the long run. Let's say you have a 50/50 bet, essentially a coin flip. You might think that means you have an equal chance of winning or losing your money. Not quite.   To win $100, you have to bet $110. If you win, you make $100. If you lose, you lose the entire $110. So even though the underlying event might seem like a 50/50 proposition, the sportsbook has built in an advantage.   That's not investing. When you buy a stock, you're buying an ownership stake in a business. The company can generate profits, grow its earnings, reinvest in the business and potentially pay dividends. When you make a sports bet, you're putting money at risk on an outcome where the odds are designed to give the sportsbook an edge.   The consequences of legalized sports betting may go far beyond losing a bet. Research from the New York Federal Reserve has found that the expansion of legal sports betting has coincided with rising rates of delinquency and bankruptcy. And the personal financial impact can be even more alarming. A 2025 U.S. News & World Report survey found that 25% of sports bettors said they had missed a bill because of their wagers, while 30% said they had taken on debt because of their betting.   When people start borrowing money, missing bills and taking on debt to place bets, sports betting can become a serious financial problem.   I understand why this mindset is developing. Younger people are dealing with expensive housing, high living costs and the frustration that traditional investing can take decades to build significant wealth.   Sports betting offers something investing doesn't: the possibility of making a lot of money very quickly. But there's a catch. You can also lose a lot of money very quickly. And that's a terrible foundation for a long-term financial plan.   Think about what young investors are seeing every day on social media. One video might explain the benefits of starting early, investing in a diversified portfolio and letting compound interest work for decades. Then, the very next video might show someone claiming you can make all of this money in a single football game by placing bets on a sportsbook. Which one sounds more exciting?   Sports betting can also create an illusion of control. You may know a lot about football, basketball or baseball and feel like that knowledge gives you an advantage. You follow the teams, know the players, understand the matchups and watch every game. It can make you feel like you're making an informed investment decision. But knowing a lot about sports doesn't change the fact that the sportsbook sets the odds and builds in an advantage for itself.   You might think, "I know more about this team than I know about the stock market, so I have a better chance of making money betting on them."   That's a dangerous way to think about building wealth. If you want to build wealth, there's no substitute for saving, investing, compounding and time. Investing can feel slow. But slow is exactly what you want when you're building wealth. You don't need to hit a parlay to retire.   How the Big Food Companies Are Battling Diet Drugs It is estimated that by 2035, 15% of the American population will be using or will have used GLP-1 drugs. No surprise, this is a potential problem for the big food companies, which have historically benefited from consumers eating more.   We are still in the early stages of the diet-drug revolution, and some of the downsides are becoming more apparent. Some users report that food doesn't taste as good, sometimes describing it as tasting like Styrofoam. There are also concerns about muscle loss and, perhaps most importantly, the simple pleasure of eating for enjoyment.   For decades, food companies have catered to consumers' taste buds with sugar, salt and an endless variety of flavors. But that strategy may not work as well for people taking GLP-1 drugs, whose appetites and food preferences can change dramatically. At the same time, there is a broader movement toward healthier eating, which creates another challenge for traditional food companies.   So how are the big food companies fighting back? They're giving consumers what they want. One of the biggest concerns with GLP-1 drugs is muscle loss. Food companies see an opportunity here by developing products with more protein and fiber. For example, companies are introducing meals such as buffalo mac and cheese with 40 grams of protein. Another example is a chewy fudge brownie mix made with cottage cheese and a peanut-butter swirl. It not only looks appealing, but also offers significantly more protein.   And food companies know something else about consumers: we eat with our eyes first. Packaging and presentation matter. Research has shown that phrases such as "good source of fiber" and "high in protein" resonate with consumers, particularly those who are trying to make healthier choices.   At the same time, companies are tapping into something that never seems to go out of style: comfort and nostalgia. Phrases such as "Mom's meatloaf" or "Grandma's roast chicken" immediately create an emotional connection. One company has even developed a marinade and added grill marks to chicken breasts to make them look more appetizing.   Smaller portions and convenience are also becoming increasingly important. Even if people want to eat healthier, they still have busy lives. They're working, socializing and taking care of their kids. Most people don't have the time or the desire to spend two hours preparing a healthy meal every night.   And while the number of people taking GLP-1 drugs will likely continue to grow, I also think we'll see some people eventually stop taking them. Over time, some may decide the drugs don't work quite as well as they had hoped, while others may become frustrated with side effects, changes in how food tastes or the loss of muscle. When looking at themselves in the mirror one might think they look too skinny and rather frail because of muscle loss.   There is also a bigger question: How much are people willing to sacrifice the pleasure of eating? Food has always been one of life's simple pleasures. For some people, after months or years of reduced appetite and diminished enjoyment from food, the desire to sit down and truly enjoy a great meal may eventually outweigh the benefits of staying on the medication.   That creates an interesting challenge and opportunity for the food industry. The companies that succeed may not be the ones selling the most food. They may be the ones figuring out how to make healthier, higher-protein, higher-fiber foods that still look, smell and taste great. Because even in the age of diet drugs, people still want to enjoy their food.   Financial Planning: What It Means to “Be Your Own Bank” Sometimes phrases like “be your own bank” or “borrow from yourself” are presented as sophisticated ways to access capital without being taken advantage of by a lending institution. But the truth is, it is impossible to literally “borrow from yourself.” You either use your own money, or you borrow someone else's money. When you take a loan against a life insurance policy, use a HELOC, or establish a securities-backed line of credit (SBLOC), you are not borrowing from yourself. You are using your assets as collateral to obtain a loan from a bank or insurance company, which you must repay with interest just like any other loan. There is nothing inherently wrong with borrowing money, and using an asset as collateral can be a perfectly reasonable financial strategy. The problem arises when the ability to borrow against an asset becomes the justification for owning the asset in the first place. Phrases like “borrow from yourself” and “be your own bank” are marketing and sales tactics that can make a financial product sound more attractive than it actually is. For example, the fact that you can borrow against the cash value of a permanent life insurance policy does not, by itself, make permanent life insurance a good investment. The financial product should first stand on its own merits considering its costs, risks, returns, liquidity, and whether it actually meets your financial objectives. The ability to borrow against an asset should be viewed as a financing feature, not a reason to purchase the product. Borrowing can certainly be a useful financial tool, but the promise of being able to “borrow from yourself” should never be the primary justification for putting your money into an asset or financial product that you otherwise would not want to own.   Company Discussed: DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (Ticker: DKS)

On this episode of FreightWaves Today, Malcolm Harris and Zach Strickland break down the latest developments shaping freight, logistics and the broader economy. The show opens with the latest headlines, including an EPA proposal that could change how diesel exhaust fluid warnings work, a series of commercial vehicle safety enforcement blitzes and rising Pacific container rates amid strong peak-season demand and port congestion. Then, Ainsley Williams, VP of Automation and Innovation at Kenco, joins the show to discuss the expansion of Kenco's Innovation Lab in Chattanooga from 10,000 to 30,000 square feet. She explains how the larger facility will allow Kenco to test interconnected warehouse robotics, automation systems and emerging technologies in a real-world environment before deploying them for customers. Zach then dives into the latest SONAR data, examining the impact of Labor Day on tender rejections, freight volumes and spot rates across van, reefer and flatbed markets. Later, Matt Pyatt, CEO and co-founder of Arrive Logistics, joins the show to discuss Mubadala Capital's majority investment in Arrive, the company's growth strategy and what the deal means for its future. Pyatt also shares his outlook on freight demand, capacity, truckload rates and why he believes the market remains highly susceptible to disruption. Finally, the FreightWaves team examines the latest JOLTS and ADP employment data with economist D.J. Donahue, looking at what the numbers reveal about the labor market and the health of the economy. Subscribe to FreightWaves for the latest news, data and analysis from across the transportation and logistics industry. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is the stock market dangerously expensive, or are investors overlooking strong future earnings growth? The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 41, yet the PEG ratio, which incorporates expected earnings growth, is signaling one of the cheapest market valuations in decades. Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts examine why these two popular valuation measures are sending completely opposite signals. The key difference comes down to expectations: CAPE relies on historical earnings, while PEG depends heavily on Wall Street forecasts for future growth. We look at the reliability of those earnings forecasts, the extraordinary concentration of expected growth among a handful of large technology companies, the role of AI investment, and whether today's valuations already price in too much optimism. 0:00 INTRO 1:04 - Jobs, JOLTS, & Economic Number Previews 5:01 - Markets are Stuck 11:04 - Vacation & Weekend Plans 12:23 - The Fed: What Will Warsh Do With Rates? 16:12 - The Truth About "Fed Buy Backs" 17:57 - Inflation Expectations are not Reason to Raise Rates 21:29 - No Guidance from the Fed? 23:48 - Valuations - What We Know vs What We Think We Know 28:48 - It all Comes Down to AI 32:12 - The Issue with PEG Ratios 36:12 - Dealing with Earnings Estimates Revisions 37:55 - How AI is Like the Railroads 39:34 -The Use of AI is Growing Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/OOZIdB7YSsw -------- Watch our previous show, "What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?" https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Stuck in Neutral," https://youtu.be/bTDPi28yJcg ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?" hhttps://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-valuation-expensive-cape-or-cheap-peg/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #ValueStocks #SeptemberMarkets #StockMarket #MarketValuation #Investing #SP500 #ArtificialIntelligence

Is the stock market dangerously expensive, or are investors overlooking strong future earnings growth? The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 41, yet the PEG ratio, which incorporates expected earnings growth, is signaling one of the cheapest market valuations in decades. Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts examine why these two popular valuation measures are sending completely opposite signals. The key difference comes down to expectations: CAPE relies on historical earnings, while PEG depends heavily on Wall Street forecasts for future growth. We look at the reliability of those earnings forecasts, the extraordinary concentration of expected growth among a handful of large technology companies, the role of AI investment, and whether today's valuations already price in too much optimism. 0:00 INTRO 1:04 - Jobs, JOLTS, & Economic Number Previews 5:01 - Markets are Stuck 11:04 - Vacation & Weekend Plans 12:23 - The Fed: What Will Warsh Do With Rates? 16:12 - The Truth About "Fed Buy Backs" 17:57 - Inflation Expectations are not Reason to Raise Rates 21:29 - No Guidance from the Fed? 23:48 - Valuations - What We Know vs What We Think We Know 28:48 - It all Comes Down to AI 32:12 - The Issue with PEG Ratios 36:12 - Dealing with Earnings Estimates Revisions 37:55 - How AI is Like the Railroads 39:34 -The Use of AI is Growing Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/OOZIdB7YSsw -------- Watch our previous show, "What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?" https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Stuck in Neutral," https://youtu.be/bTDPi28yJcg ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?" hhttps://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-valuation-expensive-cape-or-cheap-peg/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #ValueStocks #SeptemberMarkets #StockMarket #MarketValuation #Investing #SP500 #ArtificialIntelligence

On this episode of FreightWaves Today, Malcolm Harris and Zach Strickland break down the latest developments shaping freight, logistics and the broader economy. The show opens with the latest headlines, including an EPA proposal that could change how diesel exhaust fluid warnings work, a series of commercial vehicle safety enforcement blitzes and rising Pacific container rates amid strong peak-season demand and port congestion. Then, Ainsley Williams, VP of Automation and Innovation at Kenco, joins the show to discuss the expansion of Kenco's Innovation Lab in Chattanooga from 10,000 to 30,000 square feet. She explains how the larger facility will allow Kenco to test interconnected warehouse robotics, automation systems and emerging technologies in a real-world environment before deploying them for customers. Zach then dives into the latest SONAR data, examining the impact of Labor Day on tender rejections, freight volumes and spot rates across van, reefer and flatbed markets. Later, Matt Pyatt, CEO and co-founder of Arrive Logistics, joins the show to discuss Mubadala Capital's majority investment in Arrive, the company's growth strategy and what the deal means for its future. Pyatt also shares his outlook on freight demand, capacity, truckload rates and why he believes the market remains highly susceptible to disruption. Finally, the FreightWaves team examines the latest JOLTS and ADP employment data with economist D.J. Donahue, looking at what the numbers reveal about the labor market and the health of the economy. Subscribe to FreightWaves for the latest news, data and analysis from across the transportation and logistics industry. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

J-Hole jolted the markets, only to have Warsh's J-Hole narrative jolted right back with JOLTS. Caught in between are interest rates which nobody seems to have a handle on even though the answers are right there in Treasury Secretary Bessent's words and the latest European inflation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University Live 2October 9-12, West Palm Beach, Florida40 seats exist. Application only.https://eurodollar-university.com/edu-conference-2026----------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

September – here we are and the volatility starts. Bear Invasions – is this something we should pay attention to? Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too. Bombing Iran again. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - September - here we are and the volatility starts - Bear Invasions - is this something we should pay attention to? - Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too - Bombing Iran again - and again. Markets - Bonds - moving higher - Warsh and Bessent challenged - NVDA earnings - price hikes - Employment Report coming this Friday - Dell earnings - WOWWWW! DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com LAKE AMERICA - Google Maps now shows "Lake America" to U.S. users after the federal naming change. - Canadian users still see "Lake Ontario"; users elsewhere see both names. - Canada did not adopt the change, setting up an easy cross-border naming fight. OIL / IRAN - Last week - Oil dropped more than 3% as traders viewed tougher Iran sanctions as less disruptive than renewed military escalation. - Brent fell to roughly $88.58 and WTI to about $82.36. - Washington stopped short of immediately targeting major Chinese banks buying Iranian oil. - Markets also reacted to hopes for improved navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. ----  OH WAIT>>>> IRAN - FIGHT IS ON - We are back bombing and they are retaliating - We retaliate, they bomb - Threat: President Trump in phone interview with Fox News reporter repeats that if Iran retaliates, they will be hit harder, but he adds that if Iran retaliates for a third time "they will be totally wiped out as a country"; says any deal with Iran will not be "worth the paper it is printed on" - Oil Up ... DICK'S / FOOT LOCKER - Dick's shares plunged about 30% after earnings and guidance disappointed. - Core Dick's comps rose 4.9%, but Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%. - Management blamed weak sneaker launches, stale inventory and a highly promotional footwear market. - Dick's has already taken more than $500 million in charges tied to the Foot Locker turnaround. BASEBALL CARDS GO CASINO - Online "repack" platforms let customers buy randomized graded cards and immediately sell them back. - Prices can range from roughly $25 to thousands of dollars per pack. - The model increasingly resembles gambling: randomized payoff, instant resale value and repeat play. - Arena Club, Fanatics and others are pushing deeper into a market already generating billions in transactions. GOVERNMENT-OWNED STOCKS - Stocks with U.S. government backing face new legal and political risk around Washington taking equity stakes. - Intel surged after government investment plans surfaced; MP Materials also jumped after a Pentagon stake. - Trilogy Metals soared after a government deal, then gave back much of the move. - A lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement could have implications for similar federal equity deals. CHINA INDUSTRIAL PROFITS - China's industrial profits rose 11.2% year over year in July. - Profit growth slowed from 15.1% in June but remained strong. - Manufacturing profits rose nearly 19%, while mining profits jumped roughly 35%. - Strong factory profits continue to contrast with weak property and domestic-demand signals. DELL EARNINGS GUIDANCE - Earnings we great - Guidance out of control - Dell sees Q3 mid-point EPS of $6.50 vs $4.46 FactSet Consensus; sees mid-point of revs at $49.00 bln vs $41.36 bln FactSet Consensus - Dell sees FY27 mid-point EPS of $25.50 vs $18.99 FactSet Consensus; sees revs mid-point of $192 bln vs $174.05 bln FactSet Consensus TARGET HALLOWEEN BACKLASH - Target pulled a children's clown costume after complaints that it resembled blackface imagery. - The company apologized and said it was reviewing how the product cleared internal approval. - The controversy adds another brand-management problem after several politically charged merchandise fights. LEGO BOOM - Lego first-half revenue jumped 21% to about $6.5 billion. - Net profit rose 32%, while consumer sales increased 22%. - More than 330 new products helped drive demand across Star Wars, Formula 1, Botanicals and other franchises. - Lego continues gaining share while expanding stores and manufacturing capacity. WAIT - WE'RE BOMBING IRAN AGAIN - U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz, the first U.S. attack on Iran in several weeks. - Iran retaliated with missile attacks targeting U.S. bases in Jordan, restarting direct military exchanges. - Oil jumped more than 2%; Brent moved back above $90 and WTI above $85. - The Strait remains the key issue: roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass through it, so actual disruption to tanker traffic matters more than the headlines. IRAN SANCTIONS - Treasury warned countries doing business with Iran could face secondary sanctions and loss of access to the dollar system. - Scott Bessent described the campaign as an "economic D-Day." - Treasury sanctioned dozens of people, companies and vessels but initially avoided major Chinese financial institutions. - The expanded sanctions reach oil, shipping, gold, aviation, technology and digital assets. JOBS REPORT / FED TEST - August payrolls hit Friday after July shocked with a 23,000 job decline. - Expectations are for only modest job growth, making revisions and the unemployment rate especially important. - Fed rate-hike odds jumped after Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments; a strong jobs number could push them higher. - JOLTS, ADP and ISM data provide several previews before Friday.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Global bond yields are rising, stocks are under pressure, and the latest jobs data is giving the Fed more to consider ahead of its September meeting.Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti discuss why long term rates are moving higher around the world, what a new rate regime could mean for borrowers, stocks, and governments, and why the JOLTS report keeps the labor market picture mostly steady. They also break down the biggest unanswered question in AI, whether the massive CapEx boom can eventually produce enough revenue, and why private market investments tied to companies like SpaceX are drawing more scrutiny from regulators.

Apple begins a new chapter as John Ternus takes over from Tim Cook, raising questions about the company's AI strategy, supply chain power, and future direction.Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti discuss the market selloff, rising oil prices, higher mortgage rates, and what the latest JOLTS report says about the labor market ahead of the Fed's September meeting. They also break down Apple's leadership change, why the company may be at an important crossroads, whether the Fed needs to hike rates to protect its credibility, and why retirement relocation decisions often come down to more than taxes. Plus, they cover Chinese cars, protectionism, sports betting, and the growing line between investing and gambling.

Claude sessions get hijacked Anthropic is warning that common infostealer malware is stealing active Claude browser sessions, letting attackers get into accounts and burn through paid usage without needing a password or two-factor code. The company is signing affected users out, removing stored payment methods and refunding unauthorized charges. But revoking the session doesn't remove the malware, so victims still need to clean the device, change credentials and revoke other active sessions. (BleepingComputer) AI could jolt global finance Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey is warning G20 officials that frontier AI could destabilize the global financial system by making cyberattacks faster, cheaper and easier to scale across borders. Bailey says many countries still lack protocols for how advanced models are developed and released. He also warned that a successful attack on a small number of heavily used technology providers could undermine confidence across the entire system. (The Guardian) AI agents get too many keys New research from Cequence Security and Enterprise Management Associates found a sizable confidence gap around AI agent permissions. 94% of surveyed organizations believe their agents don't have more access than necessary, but only 33% actually enforce least privilege. 65% have seen an agent act outside its intended role, and 29% say that caused measurable business impact. (Security Magazine) Get the full show notes here: https://cisoseries.com/claude-sessions-hijacked-ai-jolts-global-finance-agents-get-too-many-keys/ Huge thanks to our episode sponsor, KnowBe4 Your employees have always been the target, but the threats they face are evolving. AI empowers cybercriminals to clone a coworker's voice, fake a video call with your CEO, or personalize a phishing email using details scraped from your own website. KnowBe4's AI-native Security Awareness Training (SAT) fights back with 12 autonomous defense agents that allow you to deliver personalized, relevant, and engaging training that adapts as fast as the threats your people face every day. More than 70,000 organizations trust KnowBe4 worldwide. Find out why at KnowBe4.com.

Xi Jinping, Władimir Putin i Narendra Modi spotykają się na szczycie Szanghajskiej Organizacji Współpracy, a w tle wraca projekt gazociągu Power of Siberia 2. Na G20 ministrowie finansów mierzą się z drogą ropą, Iranem i chińską nadwyżką handlową, a inwestorzy znów zaczynają bać się inflacji.W Polsce od 1 września szkoły podstawowe mają być szkołami bez telefonów. Sprawdzamy, dlaczego coraz więcej państw ogranicza smartfony w szkołach i co badania mówią o ich wpływie na koncentrację i wyniki uczniów.W PB BRIEF także: inflacja i PMI w Europie, JOLTS i ISM w USA, kolejki po tańsze paliwo w Zakopanem, sytuacja na giełdach oraz milionowe straty przy kasach samoobsługowych.

The U.S. and Iran publicly acknowledged strikes against each other for the first time in over a month. Jenny Horne points out that the headlines have sent crude oil prices spiking ahead of Monday's trading session and highlights macro movers to keep an eye on this week. Among the key data points to watch: the August jobs report, JOLTS, and ADP employment. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Curso gratuito de Empreendedorismo aqui:https://lvnt.app/dhfg11Faça parte do Inside Elite (apenas 300 vagas): https://eliteinside.com.br/l/bO principal ponto de atenção para a abertura da semana é a retomada dos ataques dos Estados Unidos contra o Irã. Neste domingo (30), forças americanas atingiram dois lançadores na Ilha de Larak, o primeiro ataque conhecido dos EUA em território iraniano desde o final de julho. A Guarda Revolucionária iraniana confirmou mortos e feridos e prometeu resposta. A reação já aparece nos preços: o Brent (dez/26) flutuava em torno de US$ 90,12 na noite de domingo, alta de 2,08%, e o WTI (out/26) em US$ 85,27, alta de 2,19%.No cenário doméstico, o relatório de Estatísticas de Crédito do Banco Central, comdados até julho, mostra a carteira total crescendo 9,5% em 12 meses, com pessoasfísicas avançando 10,8% e pessoas jurídicas 7,4%. Na margem, o saldo total subiu 0,3%,com PJ recuando 0,7% e PF avançando 0,8%. As concessões cresceram 9,9% em 12meses, puxadas por recursos livres (10,1%) e recursos direcionados (7,6%), comdestaque, no trimestre, para a alta de 21,8% nos recursos direcionados. Do lado dascondições financeiras, juros e spread bancário recuaram na margem, com quedasde 1,3 p.p. e 1,0 p.p. no mês, respectivamente, embora ainda acumulem alta de 0,3 p.p.em 12 meses. A inadimplência segue em trajetória de alta, com novo avanço de 0,3p.p. no mês e de 0,9 p.p. em 12 meses.A agenda da semana concentra a atenção em dados de atividade e inflação. Nestasegunda-feira (31), o Brasil divulga o Balanço Orçamentário de julho. Na terça (1º), aZona do Euro publica o IPC mensal de agosto, o Brasil divulga o PIB do segundotrimestre e os Estados Unidos trazem as vagas de emprego do relatório JOLTS dejulho. Na quarta (2), o Brasil apresenta a Produção Industrial de julho e os EstadosUnidos divulgam a variação de empregos privados do ADP referente a agosto. Asemana se encerra na sexta-feira (4), com as vendas no varejo da Zona do Euro emjulho e o relatório de emprego não agrícola (Payroll) dos Estados Unidos em agosto.A agenda da semana concentra a atenção em dados de atividade e inflação. Nestasegunda-feira (31), o Brasil divulga o Balanço Orçamentário de julho. Na terça (1º), aZona do Euro publica o IPC mensal de agosto, o Brasil divulga o PIB do segundotrimestre e os Estados Unidos trazem as vagas de emprego do relatório JOLTS dejulho. Na quarta (2), o Brasil apresenta a Produção Industrial de julho e os EstadosUnidos divulgam a variação de empregos privados do ADP referente a agosto. Asemana se encerra na sexta-feira (4), com as vendas no varejo da Zona do Euro emjulho e o relatório de emprego não agrícola (Payroll) dos Estados Unidos em agosto.No fechamento de sexta-feira (28/ago), o Ibovespa encerrou em 175.665 pontos, altade 0,30%. Nos Estados Unidos, o Dow Jones fechou em 53.559,99 pontos, queda de0,02%, o S&P 500 em 7.711,76 pontos, queda de 0,25%, e o Nasdaq em 26.402,42 pontos,queda de 0,52%.#fed #juros #inflacao #selic #casas bahia #suzano #ibov #petroleo Preciso da sua indicação de alguma instituição de caridade pra que eu doe toda a receita do canal. Comenta as que vocês mais confiam!

Mortgage rates today are moving as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks live from Jackson Hole. In this episode I explain what Jackson Hole is, why Warsh's comments move mortgage rates, and what this week's inflation, jobs, and GDP data mean for homebuyers, homeowners, and realtors.In this episode:- What Jackson Hole is and why Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech can move your mortgage rate today- This week's data recap: consumer confidence, new home sales, PCE inflation, the GDP revision, and jobless claims- Why oil prices and the Iran conflict are directly tied to mortgage rate swings- What's coming next week: JOLTS job openings, ADP payrolls, jobless claims, and the government jobs report- Fed meeting odds for the next meeting in 19 days, plus the rate forecast into next year- The two things I'm telling homebuyers and realtors to watch right nowMore rate breakdowns and housing market updates on the blog: https://solvitmortgage.com/resourcesCHAPTERS0:00 What Is Jackson Hole and Why It Moves Mortgage Rates1:13 Today's Rate Chart and Market Snapshot2:44 This Week's Economic Data: Inflation, GDP, Jobless Claims4:05 Next Week's Calendar: Jobs Report, JOLTS, ADP Payrolls5:18 Fed Meeting Odds, Oil, and What Homebuyers and Realtors Should Do NowAPPLY NOW, One Application, 30+ Lenders Competehttps://solvitmortgage.my1003app.com/2753203/register?lang=enREQUEST A FREE CONSULTATIONhttps://go.oncehub.com/solvitmortgagealanJOIN RATE WATCH, FREE Rate Monitoringhttps://solvitmortgage.com/resources/todays-ratesTOP RESOURCESTRU Mortgage Command Center, Live Rate Dashboardhttps://command.therateupdate.com/Mortgage Calculators and Toolshttps://stan.store/TRU-FoundationsGuides, Calculators and Answershttps://solvitmortgage.com/resourcesAsk Dan a Questionhttps://www.therateupdate.com/contactFOLLOW THE RATE UPDATEYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrioInstagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdateTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdateIf this helped you understand what's happening with mortgage rates, subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch the next update.#MortgageRates #JacksonHole #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #RefinanceDISCLAIMERDan Frio | NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

My book, Productiveness, is now available. It's about the difference between doing more and doing what matters, and how we lost the ability to tell them apart. I'll send the release date the day it's set. Visit https://mikevardy.com/productiveness to learn more and get your copy today.Most of us don't drift into quitting a job. Something happens — a single, identifiable moment — and that's when the relationship with our work actually changes. Anthony Klotz calls these moments "jolts," and once you have the word for it, you start seeing them everywhere: in your own career, in the people around you, in decisions you made years ago that you never quite had language for until now.Anthony is the organizational psychologist who coined the term "the Great Resignation," and his new book, Jolted: Why We Quit, When to Stay, and Why It Matters, is the deepest treatment I've read of why people actually leave jobs — and just as importantly, why they sometimes shouldn't. We got into direct jolts versus honeymoon jolts, why positive jolts are rarer and more powerful than negative ones, the "power surge" that hits right before someone quits, and why silence is usually the smartest exit strategy. I shared my own Costco story along the way — a demotion that turned out to be one of the clearest jolts of my working life.Six Discussion PointsA "jolt" is a single identifiable event that knocks you out of autopilot with your work — almost half of all quitting decisions trace back to one, rather than a slow, logical decline.The instinct after a jolt is to react immediately; the better move is almost always to reflect first, because doing nothing right away is often the strongest default option.Positive jolts exist but are rarer and less discussed than negative ones — our brains are wired to dwell longer on the bad, even though a compliment or a big win can just as easily be the moment that changes everything.The "honeymoon hangover effect" explains why job-change regret is so common: we see all the flaws in our current role and only the upside of the next one, until the new role reveals its own brown spots."Leaning back" — quietly renegotiating your extra, unpaid job tasks — is an underused alternative to quitting that doesn't require dramatic action or public declaration.The "power surge" that hits right before someone resigns is real, and the discipline to sit with it quietly is usually worth more than any parting message ever could be.Three Connection PointsJolted: Why We Quit, When to Stay, and Why It MattersConnect with Anthony on LinkedInStop Managing Your Time, Start Crafting Your Time InsteadIf you're sitting in a job right now wondering whether what you're feeling is a real signal or just a bad week, this conversation is worth the full listen. And if you take one thing from it: remember what Anthony's colleague Kim Scott says — don't forget to quit. Not as a threat, but as a reminder that it's always been an option on the table.

On Wednesday, August 12, Brian Szytel reports a quiet, mixed market day as July CPI came in essentially in line with expectations, leaving stocks and bonds little changed (Dow flat, S&P up 0.25%, Nasdaq up 0.5%, 10-year unchanged). Headline CPI rose 0.1% month over month to 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2%, with medical care, airfares, used vehicles, and shelter contributing. Fed September hike odds fell from about 50% to 42% ahead of upcoming PPI data and Jackson Hole. He notes inflation is moving in the right direction slowly, while employment signals are mixed (unemployment 4.1%, weaker JOLTS and slightly missed nonfarm gains). Addressing a question on baby boomers supporting children, he says wealth transfers are not money creation and are a “closed loop,” though lower labor force participation and skills could hurt productivity. 00:00 Market Recap 00:33 CPI Breakdown 01:43 Fed Outlook Ahead 02:30 Jobs And Softening Data 03:01 Boomer Wealth Question 04:07 Is It Inflationary 05:05 Wrap Up From Florida Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What should we make of a weak payroll print alongside a lower unemployment rate? In this episode of Making Sense, Lauren Brice from the North America Rates Sales team sits down with Mike Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at J.P. Morgan, to unpack the July jobs report and what it implies for U.S. growth momentum in 2026. They discuss why the headline miss may overstate weakness, what steady-but-low private hiring says about layoffs and labor market “dynamism” and how participation and wage growth are shifting the inflation outlook. The conversation also covers sector signals like leisure and hospitality, the latest read-through from JOLTS, where (if anywhere) AI is showing up in the hard data and what upcoming CPI reports could mean for the next Fed move.    This episode was recorded on August 7, 2026.   This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan.  © 2026, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved. 

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss SpaceX falling 11% despite laying out an ambitious AI and Starlink roadmap including Grok 5 trained on internal SpaceX data by year-end, 1.4GW of current compute growing toward 10GW by end of 2027, deploying NVL72-designed data centers on the ground rather than in space, boots on the moon by 2028, and the goal of scaling launch cadence to one per day in 2027, SpaceX's decision to go exclusively with Nvidia sending AMD down 9% despite good results and CPU acceleration while Arista Networks jumped 14% on accelerating networking demand tied to Nvidia, CVS raising guidance and re-adding Zepbound to its formulary while publicly backing Eli Lilly with expanded GLP-1 support, Lilly beating on stronger-than-expected GLP-1 pricing, Disney rising 4% on parks strength and a TikTok short-form video partnership, Uber slipping despite record first-time user additions, and the JOLTS report showing softer job openings but likely not a signal Warsh will weigh.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

In July, the manufacturing sector grew at its fastest month-to-month rate in four years. A new tax law likely boosted company spending to some degree, but AI investment packed the biggest punch — demand is strong and the money is flowing. Also in this episode: McDonald's suffers a sales slump, the latest JOLTS data points to a steadily improving labor market, and Kai talks to one economist behind a Trump administration investment tracker.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Manufacturing sector benefits from continued AI demandTracking down the Trump administration's $27.6 billion in investmentsWhy job openings have been rising slowly this yearMcDonald's sales soften as diners spend cautiouslyWhere did China's oil imports go?

In July, the manufacturing sector grew at its fastest month-to-month rate in four years. A new tax law likely boosted company spending to some degree, but AI investment packed the biggest punch — demand is strong and the money is flowing. Also in this episode: McDonald's suffers a sales slump, the latest JOLTS data points to a steadily improving labor market, and Kai talks to one economist behind a Trump administration investment tracker.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Manufacturing sector benefits from continued AI demandTracking down the Trump administration's $27.6 billion in investmentsWhy job openings have been rising slowly this yearMcDonald's sales soften as diners spend cautiouslyWhere did China's oil imports go?

The S&P 500 is pushing to new highs, but the profit boom behind the rally is raising questions about how much of the AI story is backed by durable cash flow.Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti break down why earnings growth across Big Tech looks impressive on the surface, why free cash flow matters more than headline profits, and whether the massive investment in AI infrastructure will actually benefit the hyperscalers spending the money. They also discuss the latest JOLTS report, why the labor market looks like a low-hire, low-fire environment, and what Friday's jobs report could mean for the Fed. Plus, they explain why the U.S. stepped in to support Japan's yen, how currency intervention could affect bond markets, and why Kevin Warsh's approach to the Fed is forcing bond traders to rethink how they price long-term rates.

Jason England says the latest JOLTS report points to a stable labor market, giving the Fed more room to focus on inflation. He discusses the risks of long-duration bonds in a volatile rate environment and highlights treasury option income as a way to capture volatility and boost yield without adding credit risk.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Crude oil prices fell sharply following comments from Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent which indicate positive developments on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. Kevin Hincks recaps the geopolitical headlines hitting the wire prior to Tuesday's open. Later, he previews a meeting between AI leaders and White House officials set to take place today. Kevin says investors need to pay attention to jobs data this week, kicking off with JOLTS figures out this morning. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Marley Kayden points to "Merger Monday" headlines in the biotech space as AstraZeneca (AZN) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) could reportedly merge into a mega-company worth more than $400B. Sam Vadas looks overseas at the joint U.S.-Japan intervention on the yen currency. For tomorrow, Marley has her eyes on SpaceX (SPCX) earnings and Sam circles macro-data on her calendar including JOLTS with a first glimpse at July jobs data. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Josh Stevens discusses the market's shift away from hyperscaler earnings and the AI trade toward the traditional economy, with JOLTS and payrolls data taking center stage this week. He explains why stocks lacking earnings momentum could face greater downside risk and argues the next phase of the bull market will depend more on the broader S&P 500 than the Mag 7.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Mortgage rates, oil prices, and inflation just collided again. In this video I break down today's mortgage rate forecast, why oil crashing is moving inflation and interest rates, and what the Federal Reserve's next meeting could mean for your rate.If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out why rates move the way they do, this is the video that connects the dots. I walk through today's mortgage bond market chart, explain exactly how oil prices drive inflation and mortgage rates, and preview the economic data coming out this week that could push rates higher or lower.In this episode I cover: Why oil crashing is good news for mortgage rates and what could reverse it How oil prices, inflation, and interest rates are all connected This week's key economic reports: PMI, JOLTS, ADP payrolls, jobless claims, and the unemployment rate The Federal Reserve's current rate hike probability heading into the next meeting What I'm personally telling my clients right now about locking or floating their rate For more on how oil prices and inflation are shaping the mortgage market, check out my full breakdown on the blog: How Oil Prices Are Moving Mortgage Rates Right Now at therateupdate.com/blog

Competition for AI Is Coming From a Surprise Source That Could Pressure U.S. Companies' Prices and Profits  We tend to focus on the major AI companies in the United States and assume they will be the long-term winners. However, one competitor that cannot be ignored is China. Chinese companies are making rapid progress in artificial intelligence, and they could become a serious challenge to U.S. firms.  Don't forget that China is a communist country and the government can put in a lot of capital to win the AI race. That ability to heavily fund AI development could help Chinese companies narrow the gap with, or even surpass, some American competitors in certain areas.  According to Artificial Analysis, which evaluates the capabilities of large language models, China's Z.ai ranked among the top three globally with its latest model release. Another concern is cost. Z.ai is reportedly offering models at less than half the price of many American rivals. Lower prices could make it easier for the company to gain market share while putting pressure on the pricing and profit margins of U.S. AI companies.  I certainly don't want to see American companies lose ground to Chinese competitors. However, as investors, we have to evaluate the competitive landscape objectively. U.S. AI companies have already committed hundreds of billions of dollars to infrastructure and development. If competition forces prices lower, it may take much longer for these companies to generate the profits needed to justify today's lofty stock prices and valuations.    The Business of Kids' Sports Is Changing and it May Not Be for the Better  Private equity has made its way into nearly every corner of the economy, and now it's becoming a major force in youth sports. The Aspen Institute has estimated that youth sports are now a $40 billion industry in the U.S, which is likely why private equity is now targeting the space. That's raising serious concerns about what happens when maximizing investor returns becomes more important than giving kids affordable opportunities to play.  As private equity firms buy up leagues, tournaments, training facilities, and sports complexes, critics argue the result is less competition, higher registration fees, and fewer affordable options for families. The average cost of youth sports has increased dramatically in recent years, leaving many children priced out of participating simply because their families can't afford it.  One thing that stands out is that this has become one of the rare issues drawing concern from both Republicans and Democrats in Congress. Burgess Owens, a Republican from Utah and former professional football player, pointed out “Investment is important, but it's when the mission is our kids, not investors. We're seeing too much of this. We're going to lose the soul of our nation if we don't get this right.” He also acknowledged that while some investors are doing it the right way, bad actors need to be kept out. While there are differences over how to address the problem, there appears to be broad bipartisan agreement that rising costs and reduced consumer choice deserve closer scrutiny.  Youth sports should be about developing character, teamwork, friendships, and healthy competition, not creating another industry where financial engineering determines who gets to participate. If the trend toward consolidation continues unchecked, more families may find themselves priced out of opportunities that should be available to every child, regardless of income.    Bitcoin Company Strategy Is in Trouble  Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, changed its name after the company essentially became a leveraged bet on Bitcoin rather than a software business. As management shifted its focus almost entirely to buying Bitcoin, it dropped the "Micro" from its name to reflect that new identity.  CEO Michael Saylor spent years promoting Bitcoin and telling investors that owning Strategy stock was one of the best ways to benefit from its rise. To finance those Bitcoin purchases, the company repeatedly issued low-interest convertible bonds.  The next major maturity comes on September 15, 2027, when approximately $1 billion of convertible notes become due. If you're unfamiliar with convertible bonds, they allow a company to borrow money at lower interest rates because investors have the option to convert the bonds into stock instead of receiving cash repayment. For that to happen, however, the stock price must trade well above the conversion price.  In this case, the conversion price is about $183 per share, about double the current stock price of roughly $90. Unless the stock stages a dramatic recovery, those bonds are unlikely to be converted into shares, meaning Strategy would need to repay the $1 billion in cash.  The stock has fallen nearly 79% over the past year, and Bitcoin's decline has only magnified the losses. Bitcoin itself has dropped roughly 50% from its peak, falling below $60,000 depending on the day. When Bitcoin was making new highs, investor excitement seemed endless. Now that prices have been cut roughly in half, much of that enthusiasm has disappeared.    Michael Saylor has also been noticeably absent from major interviews in recent months. Whether that is because demand for his appearances has faded or because the company's performance has made those appearances more difficult is open to interpretation. Strategy stock reached a high of around $473 in late 2024 and now trades near $90.  We've discussed this company many times before. The concern has always been that Strategy is not creating meaningful operating growth as it is primarily just borrowing money to buy Bitcoin. Unlike a traditional operating company, it is not relying on expanding products or services to drive future earnings.  At the moment, there does not appear to be a clear catalyst that would significantly lift either Bitcoin or Strategy's stock price. If the shares remain well below the conversion price as the 2027 maturity approaches, investors are likely to become increasingly concerned about how the company will repay its debt. That uncertainty could continue to put pressure on the stock.    Upper-middle-class Americans may not be as financially secure as they would like  Upper-middle-class Americans, generally defined as households earning between $150,000 and $250,000 per year, may be in a stronger financial position than most, but many are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future.  You may be surprised to learn that 86% of upper-middle-class Americans do not believe their children will have a better life than they have. Just seven years ago, in 2019, that figure was only 64%.  Many upper-middle-class households are also losing confidence in the economic system and the government. They increasingly feel that the odds are stacked against them, making it harder to continue moving ahead financially. In the most recent Wall Street Journal survey, 65% of affluent Americans said they believe the system is rigged against them, more than double the 29% who felt that way in 2017.  The news isn't much better for the middle class, generally defined as households earning between $65,000 and $235,000 annually. Only 25% said they have been able to save beyond an emergency fund. Roughly one in four also reported carrying credit card debt that they are unable to pay off in full each month.  Despite these concerns, there has still been significant upward mobility. About 75% of people in today's upper-income group said they now belong to a higher economic class than the one they grew up in. Among middle-class Americans, roughly half said they also grew up in a lower economic class than where they are today.  Views on higher education are changing as well. About one-third of middle-class Americans no longer believe a four-year college degree is the best path to financial success. Rising tuition costs, growing student debt, and the availability of alternative career paths have caused many to rethink the traditional college route.  No matter which income group people belong to, there is often a desire to improve their financial situation and move up economically. That ambition is a healthy part of human nature and is often what drives people to work harder, save more, and invest for the future. While constantly striving for more can sometimes make it difficult to feel fully satisfied, the pursuit of improvement can also provide a strong sense of purpose and accomplishment.    Did The Recent Jobs Report Tell the Whole Story?  At first glance, this weeks jobs report looked fairly uneventful. The U.S. economy added 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. This was below the estimate of 115k, but it does follow three strong months of payroll growth.  After looking through the report, there are several numbers that raise some important questions.  The first is the labor force. About 720,000 people left the labor force in June, pushing the labor force participation rate down to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021. Even more troubling is that if we exclude the Covid-era, it was the lowest labor force participation rate in exactly 50 years. When people stop looking for work, they are no longer counted as unemployed, which can make the unemployment rate appear stronger than it otherwise would.  Another surprising number was leisure and hospitality, which lost 61,000 jobs. June is typically one of the strongest hiring months of the year for hotels, restaurants, entertainment, and travel-related businesses. The Bureau of Labor Statistics attributed much of the decline to weaker-than-normal seasonal hiring, but it's still worth asking whether this reflects a temporary statistical issue or an early sign that consumer spending is beginning to soften. It is especially strange given the popularity of the World Cup and many speculated this would be a strong sector in the report. Goldman Sachs in particular estimated a gain of 40k in leisure and hospitality before the report was released.  Then there is the latest JOLTS report. Job openings stood at 7.6 million in May, showing employers are still looking for workers, but the question is if people are actually leaving the workforce can these jobs actually get filled?  One report never tells the entire story, but these numbers deserve a closer look. Was June simply an odd month because of seasonal adjustments? Or are we beginning to see a labor market that is slowing more quickly than the headline unemployment rate suggests? The next few months of data should help answer that question.    The biggest risk in AI may not be the technology, it may be the economics.  This week, Bradley Tusk and Ed Zitron raised important questions that investors shouldn't ignore.  Bradley Tusk (founder and CEO of Tusk Ventures and a venture capitalist) made an interesting observation: investors are treating frontier AI models the same. But China's AI companies are proving that powerful models can be developed much more cheaply and improve much faster than many expected. If lower-cost models continue to narrow the performance gap, AI models could become increasingly commoditized, making it much harder for companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure to earn attractive returns.  Ed Zitron (author, podcaster and tech industry critic) echoed a similar concern from a different angle. He argues that AI companies are engaged in an expensive arms race, pouring enormous amounts of capital into chips, data centers, and model development without proving that the economics will justify the investment. As he has said, companies are "burning money at an astonishing rate" while investors continue to assume future profits will eventually catch up.  This also ties into a warning from co-funder and CEO of Palantir Technologies, Alex Karp . He has criticized what he calls "token maxxing"—the idea that success in AI is simply about generating more tokens, building bigger models, and spending more on compute. Karp's point is that producing more AI output doesn't automatically create more business value. The companies that ultimately win will be the ones that solve real customer problems and generate durable profits, not necessarily those that consume the most GPUs or produce the most tokens.  History shows that revolutionary technologies don't always produce the best investments. The internet transformed the world, but many of the biggest companies of the dot-com era disappeared because expectations got too far ahead of profits.  AI will almost certainly reshape the economy. The bigger question for investors is whether the companies making the largest investments will ultimately earn the returns the market is expecting—or whether AI models become increasingly commoditized, leaving the biggest winners to be the businesses that successfully apply AI rather than simply build larger models.    Financial Planning: Trump Account Investment Options Released Ahead of $1,000 Seed Funding  Trump Accounts are expected to receive $1,000 of government seed money as soon as the 4th of July. If you have a child born in 2025 through 2028, you can apply online now at trumpaccounts.gov. This is basically a retirement account with a caveat, contributions can be made on behalf of children even if they don't have earned income.  However extra contributions are made on an after-tax non-Roth basis so no upfront tax deduction and no tax-free growth. Instead contributions establish cost basis and investment earnings grow tax-deferred, but are ultimately taxed upon withdrawal at ordinary income rates. In practice, this tax deferral benefit is overstated. This week the Treasury Department released 5 investment options: SPYM, IVV, VTI, ITOT, and SPTM. These are virtually all the same investment, a low fee fund that is heavily weighted toward the largest US companies. This means there is no reason to sell or rebalance, so the only real option is to buy and hold.  Buying and holding can also be done in a regular brokerage account with tax deferred until sale, but at the lower, potentially 0%, long-term capital gains rates rather than the higher ordinary income rates. Some planning strategies involve funding the Trump account and later converting it to a Roth. However, those conversions would still trigger tax at ordinary income rates and potentially trigger the kiddie tax, pulling the income into the parent's tax bracket. Since in every possible situation, the long-term capital gain tax rate is always less than the ordinary income tax rate, a better strategy may be to fund a brokerage account and use the future proceeds to make contributions to Roth accounts which likely could be done tax-free rather than funding a Trump account and eventually making Roth conversions at a higher rate. For this reason, while the $1,000 government seed contribution is worth it, additional voluntary contributions may be less attractive compared to already available alternatives.    Companies Discussed: Meta Platforms, Inc. (Ticker: META) 

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss today's ADP jobs print with a 120K estimate, yesterday's JOLTS surprise beat at 7.594 million that seems suspiciously convenient against a low bar, Kevin Warsh's panel appearance alongside Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, and Tiff Macklem in his first global central bank sit-down, and Constellation Brands' earnings beat with EPS at $3.79, 39% operating margins, and 21% Pacifico growth despite a slight net sales decline.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Brian Szytel recaps markets on June 30, the last day of Q2, noting a strong first half for the Dow and the best Nasdaq quarter since 2020, with tech leading as the Dow rose 136 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% while the 10-year yield increased 8 bps. He highlights the Japanese yen at its weakest versus the dollar in over 40 years (~162), describing the yen carry trade and warning that BOJ interventions (about 11 trillion yen) and rate hikes could trigger volatility like August 2024. He also discusses rising system leverage, with margin debt up 54% year over year to about $1.4T and the risks of triple-leveraged single-stock ETFs for retail investors. Economic data included weaker consumer confidence, stronger JOLTS openings with steady quits, lower Chicago PMI, and softer Case-Shiller home prices (down monthly, +0.7% YoY). 00:00 Market Wrap Q2 Finale 01:32 Yen Weakness And Carry Trade 02:40 BOJ Intervention Risks 03:47 Leverage Rising In Markets 04:22 Margin Debt And Leveraged ETFs 05:51 Economic Data Roundup 06:48 Closing Thoughts And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Semiconductor stocks are ending the second quarter with their strongest run on record, as the AI spending boom continues to drive huge gains across chipmakers, memory suppliers, and other companies tied to the data center buildout.Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane break down why AI demand is still powering the market, how stretched valuations and rising earnings expectations could make the second half of the year more volatile, and why cost discipline from major tech companies may be the first real warning sign for the AI trade. They also discuss the latest JOLTS report, why the labor market remains stronger than expected, how persistent inflation could keep pressure on the Federal Reserve, and why fixing Social Security will likely require politically painful choices on taxes, benefits, or both.

Jordan Shapiro breaks down the latest JOLTS data, pointing to a strong labor market and resilient consumer sentiment. He notes workers who switch jobs are outperforming those who stay, pushing companies to raise wages to retain talent. Shapiro says this dynamic is strengthening the position of skilled workers and supporting confidence across the economy.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros ligeramente al alza este martes extendiendo el rally del lunes, con el Dow en récord sobre 52,000 puntos y el mercado atento al JOLTS, la confianza del consumidor y los resultados de Nike después del cierre. $MSTR rompe oficialmente su política de "nunca vender" Bitcoin tras acumular $32 Billones en pérdidas no realizadas, autorizando ventas de BTC para cubrir dividendos, deuda y recompras. $AMZN extiende sus promociones de verano tras confirmarse que superó a Walmart como el minorista más grande de EE.UU., mientras $LLY firma un acuerdo de distribución con Innovent Biologics para su oncológico Verzenios en China.

Comece seu dia com todas as informações essenciais para a abertura da bolsa com o Morning Call da Genial! O time da Genial comenta sobre as bolsas asiáticas, europeias e o futuro do mercado americano, além da expectativa para os mercados de ações, câmbio e juros. O Morning Call da Genial é transmitido, de segunda a sexta, às 8h45. Ative as notificações do programa e acompanhe ao vivo!

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3R54h8Z David Bahnsen previews a forthcoming mid-year Dividend Cafe recap and notes a CNBC interview on market excesses in AI/tech and investor behavior. Markets rose sharply (Dow +300, S&P +1.1%, Nasdaq +2%) led by communication services; Google's first day in the Dow coincided with Verizon's exit, while materials fell. He argues recent breadth versus index performance supports rotation over correction, and questions whether stock and bond markets are truly pricing Fed rate hikes despite high futures-implied odds; the 10-year ended flat at 4.37%. He reviews Iran-US ceasefire uncertainty and Supreme Court activity, including sending the Lisa Cook firing dispute to lower court for due process while upholding an FTC firing. He flags bipartisan interest in taxing/data-center limits, discusses a likely housing bill with limited impact versus state/local barriers, cites rising supply-chain cost indicators, weak new-home sales and falling prices, notes Fed balance-sheet growth, oil at $70.50, and upcoming JOLTS and jobs data (Thursday). 00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead 02:12 Market Recap and Rotation 04:17 Fed Hike Debate 07:04 Geopolitics and Supreme Court 10:03 Data Centers and Housing Bill 12:59 Economy Housing and Fed Sheet 15:14 Energy and Jobs Week 16:05 Wrap Up and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Las bolsas comienzan la semana pendientes de la evolución del alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán, después del intercambio de ataques durante el fin de semana que ha vuelto a elevar la tensión y ha impulsado el precio del petróleo. Los mercados también miran a Sintra, donde arranca el encuentro anual de bancos centrales y que contará con la participación de Christine Lagarde y Kevin Warsh, en plena atención sobre el futuro de los tipos de interés. Además, Corea del Sur anuncia una mega inversión en inteligencia artificial impulsada por el Gobierno junto a gigantes tecnológicos como Samsung y SK Hynix, en una nueva carrera por liderar el desarrollo de la IA. Y en la agenda económica de la semana, la gran cita será el informe de empleo de Estados Unidos que conoceremos el jueves, ya que Wall Street permanecerá cerrado el viernes por festivo. También se publicará el IPC preliminar de junio de la eurozona, datos de inflación de Alemania, Italia y Francia, el PIB final del primer trimestre de Reino Unido, los PMI manufactureros de junio, la encuesta JOLTS y la confianza del consumidor del Conference Board en EEUU. En el plano empresarial, presentarán resultados compañías como Nike, General Mills, Constellation Brands y Prosus. En la tertulia de mercados de Capital Intereconomía, Pilar García-Germán, directora de ventas de Fidelity International; Isabel de Liniers, jefa de ventas para España de DWS; Pilar Vila, Sales Manager en Schroders; e Irene López, Sales Director de Flossbach Von Storch analizan si la renta variable tecnológica todavía tiene recorrido o si las valoraciones empiezan a acercarse a niveles de burbuja; qué puede ocurrir con los tipos de interés en Estados Unidos y qué están anticipando los bonos tanto en los tramos largos como en los cortos; y cómo afecta la fortaleza del dólar a las carteras con exposición a EEUU.

How's the labor market? Depends on who you ask. Host Gene Marks highlights that in this week's episode, pointing to the steady increase in job growth the past three months reported by the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch and the massive job gains released by the U.S. Department of Labor. Same? Gene says Paychex uses real-time data and the government's report will be revised because it is based on surveys. The episode also looks at the divide concerning jobs, according to the JOLTS report, and why some experts are suggesting businesses pay attention to state AI laws while the federal government tries to find its way on the subject. Listen to the podcast. Topics: 00:00 – Introduction 01:14 – Jobs and Wage Data From Paychex 02:55 – JOLTS Report Shows Hiring Divide 05:55 – Focus on State AI Laws 09:11 – Episode Wrap-up Additional Resources Employment Watch: https://bit.ly/paychex-sbew Register for AI webinar: https://bit.ly/ai-webinar-series Meet Paychex: https://bit.ly/3VtM6bs  

Audrey Symes discusses how AI is reshaping non-tech industries. Referencing Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Solomon and a strong JOLTS report, she argues fears of AI-driven job losses are overstated. Symes says AI is creating new, higher-value roles and driving demand for “AI-native” workers, even as some lower-level tasks are automated.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the SpaceX IPO targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation with a record $75 billion raise pricing next Thursday, historical data on how mega-IPOs perform and float dynamics, the anomalous JOLTS job openings jump in the West, today's ISM Services and Fed Beige Book releases, and the USTR's new Section 301 tariffs of 10-12.5% on major trading partners including Canada, the EU, Mexico, China, and the UK tied to forced labor.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

David Hochberg, Vice President of Lending for Team Hochberg at Atlantic Coast Mortgage and host Home Sweet Home Chicago on WGN Radio, joins the Lisa Dent Show to discuss the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report and what that could mean for workers. He later shares his thoughts and advice on reverse mortgages.

David Hochberg, Vice President of Lending for Team Hochberg at Atlantic Coast Mortgage and host Home Sweet Home Chicago on WGN Radio, joins the Lisa Dent Show to discuss the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report and what that could mean for workers. He later shares his thoughts and advice on reverse mortgages.

Brian Szytel shares a late-day market update with the Dow up about 250 points, the S&P slightly higher, the Nasdaq flat, and the 10-year yield unchanged at 4.45%. He highlights a stronger-than-expected JOLTS report showing roughly 731,000 more job openings than consensus, lifting openings to about 7.6 million, the highest in two years, with gains notably in consulting and professional services—countering fears that AI is collapsing hiring. He argues AI may shift entry-level skill requirements but supports productivity and investment over time. Addressing a question about younger investors relying on Bitcoin for retirement, he cites Ned Davis Research (1973–2025) showing dividend growers compounding ~10.2% versus ~7.7% for S&P equal weight, ~4.2% for non-payers, and negative returns for dividend cutters, recommending dividend-growth principles and warning Bitcoin's volatility and lack of cash flows make it ill-suited for funding liabilities. 00:00 Market Snapshot Today 00:41 Jobs Openings Surprise 01:19 AI and Hiring Reality 02:47 Bitcoin vs Dividend Growth 03:17 50 Years of Dividend Data 04:23 Building Evergreen Investing Habits 04:48 Why Bitcoin Fails Liabilities 05:34 Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Kevin Green breaks down the latest April JOLTS report to examine why strengthening labor data makes it harder for the Fed to justify interest rate cuts. He also talks about inflation pressures facing the economy, how markets are reacting to the data, and what investors should watch ahead of Friday's job report. KG also examines the rally in AI chip stocks following Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang's bullish comments and why strength in networking and AI related names could help push the S&P 500 (SPX) to further highs.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Matt Miskin cautions that beneath the surface of a blowout JOLTS report — including a two-year high in job openings. However, stagnant hiring and quit rates reveal a labor market far looser than headlines suggest. He argues that ongoing fiscal stimulus is acting as a sugar rush for the economy, and that the Fed may lean on bond vigilantes rather than rate hikes to tighten conditions.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Marley Kayden discusses the JOLTS reports showing job openings surged in April the highest they have in two years. Sam Vadas talks about European chip maker STMicroelectronics (STM) hitting record highs after earnings.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Mercado en modo cautela tras máximos históricos. Irán sigue nublando el tape, mientras hoy manda JOLTS y los yields aflojan un poco. $HPE se dispara por resultados récord y demanda fuerte en data centers AI. $MRVL vuela por el respaldo público de $NVDA en Computex. $INTC intenta relanzar su narrativa de infraestructura AI. $HIMS cierra Eucalyptus y acelera expansión internacional.

US President Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace; he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week.Iran's Foreign Ministry said the US bears direct responsibility for violations of the ceasefire with Iran and by Israel in Lebanon, adding that a violation on one front was equal to violations on all fronts.The US is in talks to expand nuclear weapon deployments in Europe, according to the FT.Crude futures gradually pulled back overnight following the prior day's rally; fixed income caught a bid overnight.APAC stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5%.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (May), JOLTs Job Openings (Apr), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, New Zealand Export/Import Prices (Q1), NBP Policy Announcement (Jun). Speakers include Fed's Kashkari & Hammack, BoE's Bailey & Greene, ECB's Vujcic. Supply from the UK & Germany. Earnings from Dollar General, Palo Alto & ULTA Beauty.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Guy Adami and Liz Thomas discuss the April jobs report, noting payrolls rose about 115,000 versus expectations near 65,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3% and back-to-back monthly job gains for the first time in nearly a year. They argue the data increases pressure on the Fed not to cut rates, with markets pricing little chance of a cut and some lingering hike risk, though Thomas doesn't expect hikes. Despite geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, equities sit at all-time highs, led narrowly by semiconductors and select tech, with limited broadening under the surface. Thomas highlights “Acceleration Nation” data points including improving hiring rates in JOLTS, strong retail sales, and roughly 25% year-over-year Q1 earnings growth, while flagging risks from CapEx/AI optimism fading or more permanent layoffs spreading to old-economy sectors. They also discuss consumer sentiment's inflation focus, and remain constructive on energy longer term even if oil-driven froth pulls back. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Stock market volatility, inflation data, U.S. debt, Big Tech AI spending, and Federal Reserve interest rates are all moving at the same time — and if you are trading or investing without watching these signals, you are flying blind. In this video, I break down the market news that actually matters: CPI, PPI, JOLTS, Fed speeches, AI capex, the debt crisis, auto loan trouble, oil supply risk, and why all of it can shake your portfolio.⚖

Brian Szytel reports stocks higher (Dow +356, S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1%) with bonds quiet and the 10-year at 4.42%, drifting up on Middle East turmoil and higher inflation expectations tied to energy prices. Oil continues to whipsaw amid geopolitical risk between the U.S. and Iran, including limited U.S. military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and some fire exchanged. He says equities are holding up because S&P 500 earnings are strong: about 60% have reported with revenue growth near 10%, earnings growth around 27%, and record margins above 20% helped by a more tech-heavy index. Economic data was mostly positive: JOLTS job openings at 6.8M, new home sales at 682K, and ISM Services at 53.6. He also explains Fed currency swap lines as a longstanding liquidity tool supporting the dollar's reserve status. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:30 Rates and Oil Whipsaw 01:19 Why Stocks Hold Up 02:18 Economic Data Check 03:22 Fed Swap Lines Explained 05:02 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com