Podcasts about wti

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Well... That’s Interesting
Ep. 272: Let's Talk About ‘The Prince' Who Was Mauled To Death 27,000 Yrs Ago + Superkilonovas Are A Thing. And One May Have Popped Off Twice

Well... That’s Interesting

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2026 37:37


Grab some Kleenex. We're about to cry at the power of our universe and the power of compassion. — Support and sponsor this show! Venmo Tip Jar: @wellthatsinteresting Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@wellthatsinterestingpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Bluesky: @wtipod Threads: @wellthatsinterestingpod Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@wti_pod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Listen on YouTube!! Oh, BTW. You're interesting. Email YOUR facts, stories, experiences... Nothing is too big or too small. I'll read it on the show: wellthatsinterestingpod@gmail.com WTI is a part of the Airwave Media podcast network! Visit AirwaveMedia.com to listen and subscribe to other incredible shows. Want to advertise your glorious product on WTI? Email me: wellthatsinterestingpod@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

death btw kleenex wti mauled popped off airwave media
Jay Fonseca
PODCAST LAS NOTICIAS CON CALLE DE 19 DE MARZO DE 2026

Jay Fonseca

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2026 16:04


PODCAST LAS NOTICIAS CON CALLE DE 19 DE MARZO DE 2026 - El petróleo a 115, el WTI en 98 FED decide dejar la tasa de interés igual Irán ataca zonas de Kuwait, Atar y Arabia Saudita tras Israel atacar Pars y su zona de gas  Trump jura que no bombardearán zonas de Irán si deja Irán de atacar en Qatar Grupos ambientalistas en PR se oponen a mega proyectos de energía renovable - WUNO Trump considera enviar miles de tropas adicionales a zona de Irán para garantizar pasar tanqueros por Hormuz - Reuters Investigan posible preparación terrorista en donde viven Marco Rubio y jefe del Ejército tras detectar drones extraños - Washington Post Trump busca tener moneda de oro con su cara para celebrar los 250 años de Estados Unidos Afghanistán y Pakistán están en detente de guerra mañana por un día por fiesta musulmana - Economist Jefe de terrorismo de USA bajo investigación del FBI por filtrar información - Axios Vienen carros sin guía - Axios Jueza Swain ordena que se negocie en serio para reestructurar deuda de la AEE - Elk Vocero Se queda cargo especial para pagar pensiones en factura de la AEE - El Vocero Mañana empiezan vistas de centros de inspección, pero no se sabe si Ciary si va o no - El Vocero Esta Isla estrena en cines y alegan que es el mejor filme de PR en mucho tiempo, premiado y reconocido por entidades internacionales - El Vocero Bestiales filas de TSA, increíble cierre federal continúa - Primera HoraJueza le da un break a PR y le dice que no a bonistas para cargo especial - Primera HoraProponen un parque con el nombre a Maga Nevárez en Arecibo - Primera HoraProponen proyecto para sepultar a perritos con sus amos Aparenta haber dos muertes por ahogamientos en playa, uno en San Juan y otro en Vieques - Primera Hora Tumban 200 mil en residencia de Morovis - Primera Hora Jueza presidenta contra proyecto que limita su poder - El Nuevo Día Eliminación de leyes de cabotaje solo representa un centavo del litro de gasolina - NYTCapitana boricua murió en Iraq, familia crearía beca a su nombre Reconocen a Chik Starr y a El Profe en el Capitolio - Noticel Incluye auspicio 

TD Ameritrade Network
What Brent v. WTI Crude Spread Signals & MU Earnings Mean for AI Trade

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2026 9:04


Brent crude oil is moving much higher to the upside than WTI, as Kevin Green analyzes what the spread means for supply and demand. KG adds to the macro picture by explaining what it means for the Fed's path forward after the committee voted to hold interest rates. As for Micron (MU), KG believes a high bar and supply concerns added pressure to what many consider stellar earnings and guidance. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

TD Ameritrade Network
Silver & Gold Plunge, Brent & WTI Spread "Not Normal," Other Warning Signs to Watch

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2026 9:03


Kevin Green breaks down the New Home Sales report and other economic data from Thursday morning. He discusses how the economic trends could change in upcoming reports due to the U.S.-Iran war. KG then turns to the widening spread between Brent and WTI crude oil, why it's “not normal,” and developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Kevin turns to the metals falling and what they could mean for equities, bonds, and economic growth.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

WALL STREET COLADA
Rebote con petróleo caro, $NBIS vuela por acuerdo con $META, $MU expande HBM y $BABA lanza AI agent.

WALL STREET COLADA

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 16, 2026 4:16


SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros en verde tras una semana débil por shock de energía, pero el tape sigue dominado por Irán y el Estrecho de Ormuz Crudo volátil con Brent cerca de $106 y WTI alrededor de $96, mientras Trump presiona a aliados para reabrir rutas de envío $NBIS se dispara por acuerdo de infraestructura de IA con $META, $MU acelera capacidad en Taiwán para DRAM y HBM, y $BABA prepara un AI agent empresarial sobre Qwen

The Options Insider Radio Network
TWIFO 488: A Historic Week for Crude Oil

The Options Insider Radio Network

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 13, 2026 30:14


This week, we aren't just talking about movers—we're witnessing a historic disruption in the energy markets. We dive deep into the explosive price action and triple-digit volatility in WTI Crude Oil, where mining in the Straits of Hormuz and tanker attacks have sent WTI and Brent soaring. Is the "par" level the new floor? We break down the massive volume in May 95 calls and the 120-strike volatility crush. In this episode, we cover: Movers & Shakers: Why the light side is dominating with double-digit gains in Energy and Platinum, while Financials lead the slide to the dark side. Equities: A "banger week" for the E-mini S&P 500. We analyze the massive 23% bid in put skew and the 6500/6400/6300 put fly lighting up the tape. Small Caps: Is the rotation dead? We look at the spike in Russell 2000 volume as it flirts with negative territory for the year. Energy Deep Dive: A "ridiculous" amount of volume in Crude. We look at the 95/Par vertical and what December 120 calls tell us about the geopolitical outlook. Don't miss this breakdown of the volatility swings, skew changes, and hot trades at CME Group.

TD Ameritrade Network
Eyes on Energy to End Turbulent Week for Crude Oil

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 13, 2026 8:22


Kevin Green and Diane King Hall examine the market story of the week: Rising crude oil prices. KG explains the price activity, plus he describes differences between brent crude and WTI. Later, he looks at the plummeting share price in Adobe (ADBE) following the company's earnings report and news that its CEO will step down once a successor is named. For today's trading range, KG looks at $6810 for an upside test, with $6600 acting as potential downside level to watch.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This Week in Futures Options
TWIFO 488: A Historic Week for Crude Oil

This Week in Futures Options

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 13, 2026 30:14


This week, we aren't just talking about movers—we're witnessing a historic disruption in the energy markets. We dive deep into the explosive price action and triple-digit volatility in WTI Crude Oil, where mining in the Straits of Hormuz and tanker attacks have sent WTI and Brent soaring. Is the "par" level the new floor? We break down the massive volume in May 95 calls and the 120-strike volatility crush. In this episode, we cover: Movers & Shakers: Why the light side is dominating with double-digit gains in Energy and Platinum, while Financials lead the slide to the dark side. Equities: A "banger week" for the E-mini S&P 500. We analyze the massive 23% bid in put skew and the 6500/6400/6300 put fly lighting up the tape. Small Caps: Is the rotation dead? We look at the spike in Russell 2000 volume as it flirts with negative territory for the year. Energy Deep Dive: A "ridiculous" amount of volume in Crude. We look at the 95/Par vertical and what December 120 calls tell us about the geopolitical outlook. Don't miss this breakdown of the volatility swings, skew changes, and hot trades at CME Group.

Well... That’s Interesting
Ep. 271: We Now Know How Pigs Ended Up On Islands In The Pacific + Why Petting A Cat Leads To A Zap (Or Rather, Why Rubbing Is Needed To Create Static Electricity)

Well... That’s Interesting

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 12, 2026 31:22


Today we have 2 perfect examples of how seemingly silly questions lead to wildly complex answers. — Support and sponsor this show! Venmo Tip Jar: @wellthatsinteresting Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@wellthatsinterestingpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Bluesky: @wtipod Threads: @wellthatsinterestingpod Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@wti_pod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Listen on YouTube!! Oh, BTW. You're interesting. Email YOUR facts, stories, experiences... Nothing is too big or too small. I'll read it on the show: wellthatsinterestingpod@gmail.com WTI is a part of the Airwave Media podcast network! Visit AirwaveMedia.com to listen and subscribe to other incredible shows. Want to advertise your glorious product on WTI? Email me: wellthatsinterestingpod@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Dividend Cafe
Wednesday - March 11, 2026

The Dividend Cafe

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 11, 2026 8:52


On March 11 from West Palm Beach, Brian Szytel reports a mostly negative but relatively benign market day amid volatility tied to Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and surging energy prices (Brent ~$92.77, WTI ~$88.29). February CPI came in as expected: headline +0.3% and core +0.2%, with year-over-year headline 2.4% and core 2.5%; he notes current oil moves could have lifted year-over-year inflation to ~2.8–2.9%, though de-escalation or large IEA releases could offset. He highlights shelter's lagging but cooling impact (rent measures up just 0.1–0.2%), important given shelter's 35% CPI weight versus energy's 7%. He discusses a new Fed chair in May aiming to cut short rates while shrinking the balance sheet, arguing productivity gains from AI and weaker labor data support easing. He also answers that TBG charges no extra external fees for alternative funds beyond internal fund expenses. 00:00 Market Recap and Volatility 00:44 Energy Prices and CPI Print 01:30 Oil Shock Scenarios and Offsets 02:34 Shelter Inflation Finally Cools 03:35 New Fed Chair and Rate Path 05:00 Alternative Funds Fees Explained 06:35 Wrap Up and Next Update Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Grain Markets DRASTICALLY Underperform Broader Commodity Complex

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 11, 2026 15:13


Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

C.O.B. Tuesday
"Imagine Iran Had Been Integrated Into The Modern World Instead Of Declaring War On The Modern World" With Dr. Dan Yergin

C.O.B. Tuesday

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 11, 2026 53:39


Today we had the honor of welcoming back Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global and Chairman of CERAWeek. Dan is a Pulitzer Prize-winning author, one of the most respected voices in energy, and a longtime authority on the intersection of energy, geopolitics, and the global economy. He is also the author of The Prize, The Quest, and The New Map, books that have helped shape how the industry understands energy history, markets, and geopolitical risk. With CERAWeek kicking off on March 23, we were delighted to hear Dan's latest insights on the evolving energy landscape, along with a preview of the key themes and conversations likely to shape this year's conference (current agenda available here). Our conversation began with Dan's perspective on how recent events in Iran have dramatically changed the backdrop heading into CERAWeek, and why the market may have been too complacent in the early days of the disruption. Dan shares his view that bad policy is often made under duress, reminds us that oil prices were already moving higher during the Gulf buildup, and explains why this moment should be viewed through a broader lens than just the formal start of the conflict itself. We explore the themes likely to shape CERAWeek this year, including the growing convergence of energy, power, and tech, the role of gas and electricity in the AI buildout, the importance of critical minerals and copper, infrastructure and permitting, nuclear, and the future direction of upstream oil and gas. We touch on Europe's continued energy vulnerability, the renewed importance of U.S. LNG, the prospect of Europe once again competing with Asia for cargoes, the unique risks that LNG faces through the Strait of Hormuz, and the broader implications for global gas markets. We discuss the range of outcomes for Gulf production shut-ins, why U.S. producers are unlikely to react to short-term price spikes, how insurance, freight costs, and physical security are shaping traffic through the Strait, and what the performance of the U.S. and Israeli militaries indicates about the scale of planning behind this operation. We also look at the longer-term questions underneath the current crisis, including the changing role of Gulf capital, the infrastructure limits around the Strait, the historic arc of Iran's posture in the region, and why the convergence of tech and energy may be one of the most important and constructive forces shaping the industry today. As always, it was an insightful and thought-provoking discussion. Many thanks to Dan for sharing his perspective and time with us all. Mike Bradley started the show by noting that the market conversation this week has once again been focused on U.S. strikes against Iran and the short- and intermediate-term fallout across commodities and equities. In crude, he highlighted that WTI has moved from the mid-$60s/bbl before the war to ~$85/bbl, after peaking near $120/bbl on Sunday night into Monday morning. The effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has been the main driver for global oil prices, with Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia cutting production by 5–7 mmbpd due mostly to onshore oil storage constraints. WTI fell roughly $10/bbl in Tuesday's trading due to rumors of a potential coordinated global SPR release of 300–400 million barrels. This war in Iran, at this point, should be viewed differently than the Ukraine war from an oil, natural gas, and economic standpoint. Global oil prices peaked about one month into that conflict, EU natural gas prices peaked roughly six months in, and economic stats such as U.S. CPI and PPI were significantly higher than today, so the pain threshold heading into this war seems more manageable. On the Energy equity front, the Energy sector is flattish since the Iran war started, significantly underperforming oil prices, with investors choosing not to chase energy equities with the move h

Stuff That Interests Me
Has Gold Already Peaked?

Stuff That Interests Me

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 11, 2026 14:32


Bull markets don't last forever. When you're in the throes of one, it can feel like they do. But they don't, and at a certain point you have to sell.Gold bull markets can feel even more eternal. Not just because the metal itself is eternal, but because the story comes along that we are going back to a gold standard, or that the Great Purge, which many economists of the Austrian school say is inevitable after fifty years of fiat decadence, is finally upon us.I get that argument. But it is too neat, too deterministic. Real life is much more mucky.So today I want to consider a very important question, and I want to try and answer it honestly:Where are we in this bull market?Has gold already peaked? It's possible. The spike to $5,600/oz at the end of January had many of the hallmarks of a blow-off top.Or perhaps $5,600 was just a mid-cycle peak, such as we saw in 2006 or 1975-76 during previous bull markets.Or is this bull market still in its infancy?I'm going to study this bull market through every lens I can think of: price, time, valuation, participation, market structure, macro context and sentiment.My bias going in is that we are mid-cycle, as I argued in my Great Forecast last week. Let's see where I end up. 1. DurationThere have been two great gold bull markets since the end of the gold standard: 1971-1980 and 2001-2011. Both lasted nine to ten years.When did this one begin?It depends how you define it.You could take the bear-market low of $1,045 in late 2015. You could take the $1,160 retest in 2018. You could take 2019, when gold broke out of its multi-year base.Technical analysis is often in the eye of the beholder. Just like bull markets.You could even argue late 2022, when the current acceleration began.If you start in 2015, this bull market has already lasted ten years. That would put it right in line with the duration of previous cycles, and you could argue it is close to exhaustion.If you start in 2018 or 2019, there may be several years left to run.I favour 2018. Just as gold hit $250 in 1999, rallied, and then returned to roughly the same level in 2001 before the real bull market began, the 2018 low feels like the equivalent retest. Of course this is debatable.And there is always the possibility that this bull market lasts longer than previous ones.Verdict: mid- to late-cycle.2. Relative valuation vs other assetsOilWith gold at $5,200 and WTI crude around $87, it takes roughly 60 barrels of oil to buy one ounce of gold.Historically this ratio ranges between 6 and 30.The only time oil has been this cheap relative to gold was in the 2020 pandemic collapse, when oil went negative.My view: it's not so much that gold is expensive as that oil is cheap. Plus commodities inevitably get cheaper as we get better at producing them. (As long as you don't measure the price in fiat).Gold vs the S&P 500With the S&P around 6,765, it takes about 1.3 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the index.This ratio has been as high as 5 - at the peak of Dotcom in 2000, and the nadir of gold - and as low as 0.2 (during the depths of the 1930s and at the 1980 gold peak).Gold is therefore on the expensive side relative to equities, but not at historic extremes.This ratio could fall further if equities fall or gold rises.Gold vs US housingThe US housing market varies enormously by region - Beverely Hills is not Detroit, Miami Beach is not McDowell County - so national averages should be treated cautiously. But they still give a rough guide.We are now below the 2011 level and approaching 1980 territory in terms of how many ounces of gold buy a typical home.Pretty extreme.Overall verdict: late-cycle. Warning signal3. Institutional ownershipGold is still under-owned in institutional portfolios.Even after the recent rally, gold represents only a tiny fraction of global portfolio allocation compared with equities and bonds.Gold mining equities are even more neglected.Verdict: mid-cycle4. Central banksCentral bank buying slowed to 863 tonnes in 2025, down from record levels in 2024, but still well above the 2010-2021 average.However, the World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased only 5 tonnes in January, below the monthly average of 27 tonnes. I would not read too much into that. Much buying is reported with delays, and China in particular reveals little about its activity. The usual assumption is that central bank buying is an early or mid-cycle phenomenon. I am not entirely convinced. If the real driver of this bull market is de-dollarisation and reserve diversification amidst a wider geopolitical shift, then official buying could persist for years.Gold currently represents just under 30% of central bank reserves. The US dollar still accounts for roughly 56%.I don't think this bull market ends until gold sits north of 50% having overtaken the dollar itself.Question: is the war in Iran going to arrest of accelerate de-dollarisation? You know the answer. Verdict: mid-cycle5. Retail participationRetail demand is growing. 2025 saw record bar and coin demand. ETF inflows are rising, but they are not exploding. Mining companies are finally attracting interest again.Silver went briefly manic last month, which is not a healthy sign, but the episode is already unwinding.Verdict: mid-cycleBy the way, due to its senior currency status, the US dollar is going to preserve its purchasing power better than the pound, which is a car crash waiting to happen. I keep getting asked, “is it too late to buy gold?”. If you are in the UK, . We are turning into South Africa and the currency will go the same way. The 40% loss of purchasing power that the pound has seen since 2020 is not going to reverse. If anything it accelerates. Thus …If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.6. LeverageLeverage is difficult to measure precisely.You can look at: futures positioning on Comex, options activity, speculative flows into junior miners, retail spread betting and more. The short answer is this: gold is a crowded trade, but it is not a mania.If it were a mania, the geopolitical shock in Iran last week would have triggered violent liquidations. Instead gold held up remarkably well.Verdict: mid-cycle7. Mining equitiesMining stocks had an excellent 2025. Word is that PDAC last week (the world's largest mining conference), was the like of which had not been felt since 2011 and the last top. That is a warning sign.This chart shows the ratio of the XAU (large mining companies) to gold since 1988. On a relative basis the miners are still phenomenally under-owned, and we now have a text-book base, formed over 9-years, in place. If this ratio goes back to levels of the early 0 0s , miners will multiply many times over.But these declines began with the emergence of the ETFs and the many alternative ways to own gold without taking on individual company risk. The ratio does not have to go back 00s levels.Maybe. But that base is a thing of beauty.Typically the end of a gold bull market would coincide with massive rallies in junior miners, an exploration IPO boom and a merger-and-acquisition frenzy.We are seeing healthy signs of activity, but nothing like that yet.Verdict: mid-cycleI'm delighted to report that The Secret History of Gold - Myth, Money, Politics and Power, published by Penguin Life, comes out in the US next month. (The US version is published by Pegasus). Order yours now - via Barnes and Noble or Amazon8. The narrative - gold to $150,000?Gold got some coverage in publications like The Economist and the Financial Times last month, but the story is far from mainstream.Ask most people about de-dollarisation, Triffin's dilemma or central bank reserve diversification and you will get blank looks.However, some familiar late-cycle narratives are beginning to appear.One is that silver is being remonetised.It isn't.Silver may well be an important strategic metal, but its monetary role was as medium of exchange. That role is not coming back because we no longer use physical money. That function has been digitised.Gold, by contrast, retains its role as as store of value - a function that silver never had to anything like the same extent. Silver may have use as a speculative asset. It may well rise in price. It may even overshoot spectacularly. But it is not being remonetised. That will not happen, unless Eastenders turns into Mad Max.Another narrative that sometimes appears near major peaks is the US national debt relative to gold reserves. In 1980, headlines declared the US was “solvent again” because it could have used its gold to fully settled its debt.Today US debt is roughly $39 trillion. To settle that debt using America's 262 million ounces of gold, the gold price would need to be roughly $150,000 per ounce.When arguments like that start circulating, it means the narrative can't go much further and the cycle is close to exhaustion.We are not there yet.Verdict: mid-cycle9. Real yieldsLast but not least: real interest rates.This would be the 10-year Treasury yield minus inflation, or the 10-year TIPS yield.Gold bull markets tend to end when real yields rise sharply.In 1980, Paul Volcker pushed interest rates toward 20% and real yields surged. Gold then entered a twenty-year bear market. At the 2011 peak, real yields rose from deeply negative to positive and gold topped within months. From 2020–2022 real yields went negative again and gold surged, until they rose in 2022 and gold stalled.Today nominal yields are relatively high, but inflation remains elevated, the Fed is under pressure to ease (as are most central banks) and fiscal deficits are enormous.Real yields therefore sit around zero or slightly positive, depending on how they are measured. That is not restrictive enough to kill the gold bull market.The danger signal would be inflation falling sharply while nominal yields stay high, pushing real yields well above +2%. We are some distance from that.Verdict: mid-cycleIf you are interested in following the real yield argument, Charlie Morris is the man. He gets it better than anyone, and I heartily recommend you follow his work via his Atlas Pulse. Get your copy here - it's free.ConclusionIf gold continues rising it will pull silver and mining equities higher with it.The spike in silver last month to around $125 looked very much like a mid-cycle blow-off, and a period of consolidation is now both likely and healthy. Looking across all the indicators, most point toward a mid-cycle environment rather than a late-cycle one.What superb content. You really should upgrade.Duration and relative valuation raise some concerns, but these are just one or two of nine indicators. Everything else suggests the bull market has not yet reached its final, most speculative phase.In other words: this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.$8 to $10,000 by the end of the decade is a very real possibility.Thanks very much for being a subscriber to Flying Frisby.Until next time,DominicPS I have discussed gold largely in dollar terms, because the market is quoted in dollars. But if you are in the UK the case for owning gold has less to do with the dollar and far more to do with the pound. Sterling has already lost roughly 40% of its purchasing power since 2020, and that trend is not going to reverse. If anything it will accelerate. It's not just the ineptitude of successive governments, but unelected permablob (in this case the Treasury, the OBR, the Bank of England, the FCA et al) that actually runs the show. The system- if you can call it that - is the problem and it's not going to change. The incentives are to spend more, borrow more and debase the currency slowly over time. You cannot fix that system. But you can protect yourself from it. And that means owning some gold.DisclaimerI am not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other regulatory body as a financial advisor. Therefore, any information provided in this newsletter does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is solely an expression of opinion. Small-cap stocks are inherently risky. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor, if you have any doubts. Remember, markets can both rise and fall, especially in the case of small and mid-cap stocks. I am not aware of your individual financial circumstances, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin
No Healthcare, Just Same Day MAID! | CBP 255 Pt 2

The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 11, 2026 47:06


Canada processes MAID applications same-day. The median wait for surgery is 28.6 weeks. This isn't broken — this is the system working as designed.In this episode:⚡ CANADA & MAID — A disabled man is pursuing medically assisted death to avoid homelessness. Not terminal. Not mentally ill. Just afraid of being on the street. We break down the same-day MAID protocol, 76,475 deaths since 2016, and what it tells you about Canadian governance.

Lions of Liberty Network
TLPP: Taking Down Ticketmaster w/ Tommy Dorfman

Lions of Liberty Network

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 10, 2026 46:33


On this episode of The Lou Perez Podcast I'm joined by Juice Entertainment's Tommy D(orfman). We talk about our clubbing days in New York City, how the mafia was an ally to the LGBTQ community, and Tommy's ongoing battle against Live Nation Entertainment and Ticketmaster. Check out my book, That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore: On the Death and Rebirth of Comedy https://amzn.to/3VhFa1r     Watch my sketch comedy streaming on Red Coral Universe: https://redcoraluniverse.com/en/series/the-lou-perez-comedy-68501a2fd369683d0f2a2a88?loopData=true&ccId=675bc891f78f658f73eaa46d  Rock XX-XY Athletics. You can get 20% off your purchase with promo code LOU20. https://www.xx-xyathletics.com/?sca_ref=7113152.ifIMaKpCG3ZfUHH4  Support me at www.substack.com/@louperez     Join my newsletter www.TheLouPerez.com   Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/.../the-lou-perez.../id1535032081   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2KAtC7eFS3NHWMZp2UgMVU   Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/.../2b7d4d.../the-lou-perez-podcast   YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLb5trMQQvT077-L1roE0iZyAgT4dD4EtJ   Lou Perez is a comedian, producer, and the author of THAT JOKE ISN'T FUNNY ANYMORE: ON THE DEATH AND REBIRTH OF COMEDY. You may have seen him on Gutfeld! , FOX News Primetime, One Nation with Brian Kilmeade, and Open to Debate (with Michael Ian Black). Lou was the Head Writer and Producer of the Webby Award-winning comedy channel We the Internet TV. During his tenure at WTI, Lou made the kind of comedy that gets you put on lists and your words in the Wall Street Journal: “How I Became a ‘Far-Right Radical.'” As a stand-up comedian, Lou has opened for Rob Schneider, Rich Vos, Jimmy Dore, Dave Smith, and toured the US and Canada with Scott Thompson. Lou has also produced live shows with Colin Quinn, the Icarus Festival, and the Rutherford Comedy Festival. For years, Lou performed at the Upright Citizens Brigade Theater (both in NYC and L.A.) in sketch shows with the Hammerkatz and his comedy duo, Greg and Lou. Greg and Lou is best known for its sketch "Wolverine's Claws Suck," which has over 20 million views on YouTube alone. In addition to producing sketch comedy like Comedy Is Murder, performing stand-up across the country, and writing for The Blaze's Align, Lou is on the advisory board of Heresy Press, a FAIR-in-the-arts fellow, and host of the live debate series The Wrong Take and The Lou Perez Podcast (which is part of the Lions of Liberty Podcast Network), and co-hosts Happy Hour Econ with Phil Magness. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

ARC ENERGY IDEAS
Strait of Hormuz Closure and the Oil Price Roller Coaster

ARC ENERGY IDEAS

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 10, 2026 33:38


This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter review developments in the Iran war, which entered its tenth day at the time of recording on the morning of March 9, 2026. The U.S. reports striking thousands of targets in Iran during the first week of the conflict and damaging or destroying more than 40 Iranian naval vessels. In response, Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have launched missiles and drones across more than ten countries in the region. Energy infrastructure across the Middle East has also been targeted, including facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran. Some regional producers have shut in oil production due to export disruptions, full storage tanks, and, in some cases, damaged facilities. Tankers continue to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply and LNG trade normally pass. The U.S. has offered naval escorts and a $20 billion tanker reinsurance program to restore shipping, but tankers are not moving yet. WTI briefly surged to about US$118 per barrel on March 9, before easing, amid reports that the G7 was considering releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) and comments from the US President suggesting that the conflict could be nearing an end. Jackie and Peter also explore potential winners from the crisis, including renewable energy and other alternatives, electric vehicles (EVs), Russia, and possibly Canada, particularly if Canada can expand market access and increase oil and gas production. Content referenced in this podcast:Financial Times: G7 discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves (March 9, 2026) Polymarket: US X Iran cease-fire by….  CBC: Nervous nations calling Canada's energy minister after Iran strikes (March 3, 2026) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin
Kraken Gets a Fed License - What Does This Mean for Bitcoin? | CBP 255 Pt 1

The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 10, 2026 55:36


Canada processes MAID applications same-day. The median wait for surgery is 28.6 weeks. This isn't broken — this is the system working as designed.In this episode:⚡ CANADA & MAID — A disabled man is pursuing medically assisted death to avoid homelessness. Not terminal. Not mentally ill. Just afraid of being on the street. We break down the same-day MAID protocol, 76,475 deaths since 2016, and what it tells you about Canadian governance.

FactSet U.S. Daily Market Preview
Financial Market Preview - Monday 9-Mar

FactSet U.S. Daily Market Preview

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 9, 2026 5:43


US futures are lower, but off their low points, with S&P down ~1.5%, following lower close on Friday, ending not far from worst levels, with major indices posting sharp weekly declines. US dollar is lower against Loonie but higher elsewhere. Bonds lower. Treasury yields higher across the board. Bund up ~3bps to 2.89% while Gilts little changed at 4.57%. Brent crude higher, peaked at $116/bbl; WTI also above $100/bbl. However, both well off earlier highs. Precious metals lower. Base metals mixed. Bitcoin lower. Brent crude forwards surged 18%, WTI up more than 20% in early Monday trading with both blends trading at $110/bl, first time crude prices traded near $100 since start of Covid pandemic. Sharp increase came after Israel attacked Iranian oil facilities, other middle east oil producers said they would curtail output, and as shipments through Strait of Hormuz ground to standstill. Companies Mentioned: KKR&Co., Agilent Technologies, Hims&Her Health

The Options Insider Radio Network
The Option Block 1450: Live from the FIA Boca Conference 2026

The Options Insider Radio Network

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 9, 2026 52:42


Volatility is back with a vengeance! In this special episode, Mark Longo reports live from the FIA Boca Conference 2026 while the markets take a nosedive. As the S&P 500 flirts with red for the year and the VIX threatens the 30-handle, the All-Star panel breaks down the chaos. Joining Mark to dissect the madness are Andrew "The Rock Lobster" Giovinazzi from OptionPit.com and "Uncle" Mike Tosaw from St. Charles Wealth Management. On This Episode: The Trading Block: A deep dive into the "Day Trader's Paradise." We discuss WTI breaking the $100 par strike, the resilience of the S&P 500, and why the small-caps (IWM) are turning back into a pumpkin. VIX Watch: Analyzing the massive paper hitting the tape, including heavy activity in the April 60 calls. The Odd Block: The Rock Lobster spots unusual activity in Wells Fargo (WFC), a massive closing trade in United Airlines (UAL), and the wild 38% surge in Hims & Hers (HIMS). Strategy Block: Uncle Mike schools us on Covered Call management in a falling market. Do you sit on your hands, buy a protective wing, or roll for time? Around the Block: Predictions for the rest of the week, including the "daily miasma" of oil prices and the "dark horse" potential of Silver and Gold. Featured Broker: Tastytrade.com/podcasts Go Pro: TheOptionsInsider.com/Pro

TD Ameritrade Network
Oil Markets on Alert as Geopolitical Risk Builds

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 9, 2026 6:45


Oil prices are volatile as Middle East tensions rattle WTI. Ben Cook joins Sam Vadas and Alex Coffey to assess Iran-related supply risks, noting prices could fall back to $65–$75 if tensions ease, while sustained spikes would pressure airlines and travel stocks.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

TD Ameritrade Network
‘Really on a Time Crunch' to Resolve High Oil Prices

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 9, 2026 7:32


Ben Emons thinks there was short squeeze in oil over the weekend, driven by fears of production shutting down in the Gulf. He argues it's “full risk off” in the oil market as Brent and WTI crude match prices, a rare occurrence. Ben explains what moving from an oversupply to an undersupply means for oil prices and global economies. “We're really on a time crunch to try to resolve this conflict.”======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Business daily
Oil and stocks whipsaw on hopes of an end to Middle East war

Business daily

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 9, 2026 5:45


Crude oil prices pulled back sharply after brushing $120 a barrel earlier on Monday. After hovering around $100 for most of the day, both Brent and WTI benchmarks reversed course following comments from Donald Trump suggesting the US-Israeli war with Iran could soon come to an end. As Gulf countries began cutting production amid a rapid decrease in available storage space, consumers have already started seeing fuel prices rise.

Top Expansion

El petróleo WTI superó los 118 dólares por barril tras la escalada del conflicto entre Irán, Estados Unidos e Israel, en medio del bloqueo del estrecho de Ormuz, por donde pasa cerca del 20% del petróleo mundial. (00:00) Bienvenidos (00:18) Cierre de rutas (01:22)Las bolsas se desploman

NY to ZH Täglich: Börse & Wirtschaft aktuell
Aktien noch zu stabil? | New York to Zürich Täglich

NY to ZH Täglich: Börse & Wirtschaft aktuell

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 9, 2026 16:12


Die Wall Street startet schwach in die Woche, notiert aber deutlich über den vorbörslichen Tiefs. Der S&P 500 rutschte zeitweise auf 6585 Punkte ab. WTI-Öl schoss über Nacht um mehr als 30 Prozent auf über 119 US-Dollar, stabilisierte sich zuletzt aber bei rund 102 US-Dollar. Bereits letzte Woche war Öl um 36 Prozent gestiegen, der größte Wochenanstieg seit Einführung des WTI-Kontrakts 1983. Der Energiepreisschock belastet vor allem Airlines, Industrie- und Rohstoffwerte und schürt neue Inflations- und Rezessionssorgen. Auslöser der Turbulenzen sind zunehmende Angebotsrisiken im Ölmarkt: Mehrere OPEC-Staaten, darunter Kuwait und die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate, drosseln ihre Produktion, während Angriffe auf Energieinfrastruktur und Störungen im Tankerverkehr durch die Straße von Hormus die Märkte nervös machen. Neben der geopolitischen Lage rücken in dieser Woche wichtige Konjunkturdaten in den Fokus, allen voran die US-Inflationszahlen. Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! ____ Folge uns, um auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben: • X: http://fal.cn/SQtwitter • LinkedIn: http://fal.cn/SQlinkedin • Instagram: http://fal.cn/SQInstagram

[KBS] 성공예감 김방희입니다
오늘의 경제 뉴스 - 브렌트유·WTI 등 국제유가 배럴당 100달러 돌파

[KBS] 성공예감 김방희입니다

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 9, 2026 18:59


오늘의 경제 뉴스 - 브렌트유·WTI 등 국제유가 배럴당 100달러 돌파

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Brace: Markets Caught In A Volatile Trap As War, Jobs And Credit Risks All Hit!

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 8, 2026 21:15


This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. As expected, the broadening conflict in the middle east spooked markets as Oil rose with WTI up more than 35% and LNG gas futures up 67%. As … Continue reading "Brace: Markets Caught In A Volatile Trap As War, Jobs And Credit Risks All Hit!"

The Tom Dupree Show
Oil Prices Surge 30%: What Rising Market Volatility Means for Your Retirement Portfolio

The Tom Dupree Show

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 7, 2026 44:59


When oil prices spike nearly 30% in a matter of days and a weak jobs report hits on the same Friday, the word on every investor’s mind is stagflation. On this episode of The Financial Hour of the Tom Dupree Show, host Tom Dupree, James Dupree, and Mike Johnson break down how the Middle East conflict is rippling through oil markets, what it means for interest rates and inflation, and why personalized investment management matters more than ever when volatility takes center stage. Whether you’re thinking about retirement or already drawing income from your portfolio, the current environment is a powerful reminder that how your money is managed — and who manages it — can make the difference between weathering the storm and watching your principal erode. How the Middle East Conflict Is Driving Oil Prices and Market Turbulence The most immediate market impact from the conflict between Israel, the U.S., and Iran has been felt in energy prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged from roughly $72 per barrel to touch $92, according to data tracked by the U.S. Energy Information Administration — a move of nearly 30% in just days. Mike Johnson explained the supply dynamics at play: “Kuwait — they’re cutting oil production. And this is because the Strait of Hormuz is cut off for all practical purposes. These big producers are running out of storage for the oil. They’re essentially closing up the wells.” The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-fifth of all global oil shipments daily. With roughly 90 million barrels of crude produced worldwide each day, shutting down that corridor has massive supply implications. Tom Dupree noted the physical challenge: “What keeps an oil well going is the oil flowing through all the little capillaries. When that gets turned off, it starts to sludge up.” Restarting shut-in wells can take days to weeks, and operators risk losing pressure and production permanently. For those tracking market commentary on gasoline prices, Mike pointed out a critical consumer threshold: “When you get to about $3.50 a gallon, that’s when you start seeing an impact on spending in a more meaningful way. And then $4 is when things start getting much worse in terms of consumer spending.” Stagflation Fears: Why One Jobs Report Has Investors on Edge The Friday jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in weaker than expected, and the combination of rising commodity prices with a slowing labor market triggered immediate stagflation concerns across Wall Street. As Mike explained: “The market’s immediate knee-jerk reaction was that terrible S-word — stagflation. If we have a slowing economy with higher commodity prices, you have inflation and a slowing economy.” Tom was quick to add perspective: “One jobs number does not stagflation make. It’s a trend. But the fact that oil’s going up is gonna be considered inflationary, and then you get that jobs report on top of it.” Despite the volatility — with the market opening down 1.5% on Monday before recovering, followed by a sharp Tuesday sell-off — the broader indices showed resilience for the week. Mike observed: “We’ve essentially declared war. You’ve got oil prices up 30%. The market’s only off a little bit for the week. It’s been resilient as a whole.” This kind of choppy, bifurcated market is exactly why a disciplined investment philosophy matters. When risk-on and risk-off signals get scrambled day to day, reactive investors often make the wrong moves at the worst times. AI and the Job Market: Disruption Is Real, But It’s Not All Bad The conversation turned to how artificial intelligence is reshaping the employment landscape and what it means for market sentiment. James Dupree offered a nuanced take on the weak jobs data: “The AI stocks — they don’t really tie that to the economy because AI is going to replace jobs. So it might actually be good if there’s a bad jobs report for those AI stocks.” Mike broke down where the disruption is hitting hardest: “Some of your more tenured and senior workers — they’re benefiting from AI. What it’s impacting are the entry-level jobs. The number crunchers, entry-level analysts — those are the type of things that are able to be AI-ed away.” Tom drew a historical parallel: “AI is obviously the big thing right now. It’s the same way that the dot-com stuff was 20-something years ago. There will be winners and there will be losers, but I happen to believe that AI may actually create jobs because there will be more things that people can do.” For investors, the takeaway is that AI-related stocks occupy a unique space in the current market. James pointed to NVIDIA’s forward P/E ratio of 22 — below the S&P 500’s five-year average of roughly 23 — as evidence that some of the market’s fastest-growing companies are actually reasonably valued despite the broader market looking stretched. Sequence of Returns Risk: The Retirement Danger Most People Don’t See Coming Perhaps the most critical segment of the episode focused on a concept that every person in retirement or thinking about retirement needs to understand: sequence of returns risk. This is the idea that when your returns happen matters just as much as what they average over time — especially when you’re withdrawing money from your portfolio. Mike walked through a clear example: “Let’s say you have a million dollars and you’re drawing 4%, which is $40,000 a year. In the first year, the market goes down by 10% — your million dollars is now $900,000 plus you took out $40,000. So now you’re at $860,000. The next year, another 10% drop — down another $86,000 plus the $40,000 you withdrew. You have to get massive rises in the stock market to get back to even.” He continued: “There comes a point of no return where you’re forced to lower your withdrawal. If a million dollars is now $700,000 and you’re taking out $40,000, that’s now a 5.5% withdrawal rate. It’s negative compounding.” This is one of the core reasons the team at Dupree Financial Group structures retirement portfolios around dividend-paying investments. Tom explained the logic: “Sequence of returns is one reason why we invest for dividends — so that if the sequence of the return is negative, we may not have to be in a position to sell stocks in a down market. We can draw from the dividends.” For anyone approaching retirement or already drawing income, understanding this risk is essential. Resources from FINRA’s investor education center offer additional background on managing withdrawal strategies and retirement income planning. Berkshire Hathaway Under Greg Abel: Culture, Buybacks, and Alignment The episode also covered Berkshire Hathaway’s transition to new leadership under Greg Abel, who took over from Warren Buffett. Abel’s first annual letter to shareholders ran 18 pages — longer than Buffett’s typical letters — and signaled a leadership style rooted in operational detail and cultural preservation. Mike highlighted two significant announcements. First, Berkshire is resuming share buybacks for the first time since May 2024. Second, Abel is investing 100% of his post-tax salary — roughly $15 million per year — into Berkshire stock personally. “It’s all about alignment with shareholders,” Mike said. “It fits the Berkshire culture to a T.” The team also discussed Abel’s emphasis on corporate culture as a lasting competitive advantage. As Abel wrote in his shareholder letter, “Culture is our most treasured asset.” Tom connected that philosophy to Dupree Financial Group’s own approach: “We’ve worked to earn the trust of our clients and we have to keep working to keep that.” Historical Market Returns After Geopolitical Events Mike shared data that puts the current conflict in long-term perspective. Looking at one-year returns following major geopolitical events, the numbers are striking: 11.2% after the Korean War, 27% after the Cuban Missile Crisis, 13% after the Six-Day War, 10% after the Gulf War, nearly 27% after the invasion of Iraq, 19% after the Brexit vote, and 43% in the year following COVID-19. However, Tom added an important caveat for retirees: “What about the 30% drop that came before that? Individuals have to look at sequence of return, not just the long-term averages.” This distinction between how a static portfolio and a retirement portfolio respond to volatility is central to Dupree Financial Group’s investment philosophy — building portfolios of quality, dividend-paying companies in separately managed accounts where each client owns their individual stocks rather than being pooled into a mutual fund. Key Takeaways from This Episode Oil prices have surged nearly 30% due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with WTI crude jumping from $72 to $92 per barrel, creating ripple effects across the global economy. Stagflation fears are rising as weak jobs data combines with inflationary energy prices, though one report alone doesn’t confirm a trend. The $3.50 gas price threshold is where consumer spending starts to contract meaningfully — and $4 per gallon is where it gets significantly worse. Sequence of returns risk is more important than average returns for anyone in retirement or approaching it — early losses combined with withdrawals create negative compounding that can be devastating. Dividend investing provides a buffer during market downturns by allowing retirees to draw income without being forced to sell stocks at depressed prices. AI is reshaping the job market, benefiting senior workers while displacing entry-level roles, and creating a unique dynamic for tech stock valuations. Berkshire Hathaway’s Greg Abel is resuming share buybacks and investing his entire post-tax salary in Berkshire stock, signaling strong alignment with shareholders. Diversification across sectors — including energy exposure — helps portfolios weather geopolitical shocks through negative correlation benefits. Frequently Asked Questions How do rising oil prices affect my retirement portfolio? Rising oil prices can trigger inflation, which erodes purchasing power and can hurt broad market returns. However, portfolios with energy sector exposure may benefit from higher commodity prices. The key is having a diversified, actively managed portfolio that can adapt to changing market conditions rather than being locked into a one-size-fits-all approach. What is sequence of returns risk and why does it matter? Sequence of returns risk refers to the danger that poor market returns early in retirement — combined with portfolio withdrawals — can permanently damage your nest egg, even if long-term average returns are positive. A $1 million portfolio losing 10% while withdrawing $40,000 drops to $860,000 in year one, making recovery increasingly difficult. This is why income-focused strategies using dividends can help reduce the need to sell during downturns. Should I be worried about stagflation? One weak jobs report alongside rising oil prices raises the question, but stagflation requires a sustained trend of economic stagnation paired with persistent inflation. The current market has shown resilience despite the volatility. That said, having a portfolio strategy that accounts for inflation protection — through dividend growth stocks and diversified sector exposure — is prudent regardless of the economic outlook. How is AI affecting investment opportunities right now? AI-related stocks are trading somewhat independently from broader economic indicators. Companies like NVIDIA are showing strong earnings growth with forward valuations actually below the S&P 500 average. AI is displacing some entry-level jobs while creating opportunities for more experienced workers, making it a complex but potentially rewarding area for long-term investors. What did Berkshire Hathaway’s new leader announce? Greg Abel, who succeeded Warren Buffett, announced that Berkshire would resume share buybacks and that he would personally invest 100% of his post-tax salary — approximately $15 million annually — into Berkshire stock. His 18-page shareholder letter emphasized operational detail and cultural preservation as his top priorities. Don’t Let Market Noise Derail Your Retirement When oil prices surge, jobs data disappoints, and geopolitical uncertainty dominates the headlines, it’s easy to feel like the ground is shifting beneath your feet. But reactive investing — selling in a panic or chasing the latest trend — is one of the biggest threats to a retirement portfolio. At Dupree Financial Group, every client gets a separately managed account with direct access to their portfolio managers — not an assigned counselor at a call center. Your portfolio is built around your retirement timeline, your income needs, and your risk tolerance, with quality dividend-paying companies that provide income even when markets get choppy. If you don’t know what you own in your portfolio, you need to. Call (859) 233-0400 or schedule your complimentary portfolio review online to find out how a personalized approach could help protect — and grow — your retirement income. Listen to the full episode and explore more market insights on The Financial Hour podcast archive. Hear from clients who’ve made the switch to personalized investment management. Dupree Financial Group is a registered investment advisor (RIA) registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information provided in this blog post and podcast is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. For more information, please review our firm disclosures on SEC.gov. The post Oil Prices Surge 30%: What Rising Market Volatility Means for Your Retirement Portfolio appeared first on Dupree Financial.

The Dividend Cafe
Iran, Oil, and Markets

The Dividend Cafe

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2026 22:16


Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46HCMXH From Nashville, Dividend Cafe host David Bahnsen discusses investor implications of the U.S. military operation that began in Iran, emphasizing the discomfort of analyzing markets amid potential casualties. He notes the Dow is down about 3% on the week but highlights extreme intraday volatility as a sign of uncertainty rather than news-driven moves. Bahnsen argues the key market driver is oil: WTI has surged into the 90s, up over 32% in a week, while futures show backwardation implying a temporary shock. He cites knock-on effects including higher shipping costs, sidelined container ships in the Persian Gulf, and aluminum at four-year highs. Political ramifications could affect markets via midterm outcomes. He advises investors not to change asset allocation or trade the “fog of war,” expecting volatility to persist while focusing on long-term dividend compounding. 00:00 Welcome From Nashville 01:01 War And Investor Lens 02:54 Market Drop Versus Volatility 06:45 Fog Of War Uncertainty 09:24 Oil Shock And Backwardation 11:26 Shipping Metals And Gas 15:09 Political Ripple Effects 18:16 What Investors Should Do 20:04 Closing Thoughts And Prayer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Making Sense
Oil Just Sent a Terrifying Warning to the Entire Economy

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2026 20:43


Energy prices renewed their surge higher today. As it stands, WTI is now just shy of $80 per barrel, up 22% in a week. Wholesale gasoline is now above $2.60 per gallon, a 30% rise since last Thursday. These are the biggest short-term energy spikes we've seen since 2022. Because of that, we have to start seriously considering various potential paths for this burgeoning oil shock, up to and including a 1990 scenario where conflict in the Middle East sent energy prices skyrocketing and tipped a weak economy here and around the world into full-blown recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Grain Markets and Other Stuff
"It's Crude Oil, Bro" - Grains Post Fresh Highs

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2026 20:02


Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

NY to ZH Täglich: Börse & Wirtschaft aktuell
Öl und Arbeitsmarkt belasten | New York to Zürich Täglich

NY to ZH Täglich: Börse & Wirtschaft aktuell

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2026 13:53


Die US-Futures stehen wieder unter Druck. Haupttreiber bleibt der Krieg mit dem Iran: Ölpreise steigen weiter, WTI liegt über 80 US-Dollar, Brent zeitweise über 87 Dollar. Damit steuert der Ölmarkt auf den stärksten Wochenanstieg seit Beginn des Ukraine-Kriegs zu. Gleichzeitig klettert der US-Benzinpreis auf 3,32 Dollar pro Gallone, was Inflations- und Rezessionssorgen verstärkt. Der Energie-Minister von Katar warnt in einem Gespräch mit der Financial Times, dass die Golfstaaten binnen der nächsten Wochen gezwungen sein wird die Förderung von Energie einzustellen, sollte sich die Lage nicht ändern. Ein solches Szenario könnte die Ölpreise bis auf 150 US-Dollar treiben. Katar hat seine LNG-Produktion bereits gestoppt. Erschwerend kommt nun hinzu kommt, sind sehr schwache US-Arbeitsmarkt. Es gingen 92.000 Stellen im Februar verloren. Die Wall Street rechnete mit 59.000 geschaffenen Jobs. Die Arbeitslosenrate steigt auf 4,4 Prozent. Einzelne Techwerte wie Marvell, Guidewire und Samsara profitieren derweil von starken Quartalszahlen. Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! ____ Folge uns, um auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben: • X: http://fal.cn/SQtwitter • LinkedIn: http://fal.cn/SQlinkedin • Instagram: http://fal.cn/SQInstagram

Wall Street mit Markus Koch
Katar warnt vor 150 USD Öl | US-Arbeitsmarkt schwach

Wall Street mit Markus Koch

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2026 24:03


Werbung | Exklusives Angebot für unsere Hörer: Testet Handelsblatt Premium 4 Wochen für 1 € und bleibt zu den Entwicklungen an den Finanz- und Aktienmärkten informiert. Mehr zum Vorteilsangebot der Handelsblatt-Fachmedien erfahrt ihr unter: www.handelsblatt.com/mehraktien Die US-Futures stehen wieder unter Druck. Haupttreiber bleibt der Krieg mit dem Iran: Ölpreise steigen weiter, WTI liegt über 80 US-Dollar, Brent zeitweise über 87 Dollar. Damit steuert der Ölmarkt auf den stärksten Wochenanstieg seit Beginn des Ukraine-Kriegs zu. Gleichzeitig klettert der US-Benzinpreis auf 3,32 Dollar pro Gallone, was Inflations- und Rezessionssorgen verstärkt. Der Energie-Minister von Katar warnt in einem Gespräch mit der Financial Times, dass die Golfstaaten binnen der nächsten Wochen gezwungen sein wird die Förderung von Energie einzustellen, sollte sich die Lage nicht ändern. Ein solches Szenario könnte die Ölpreise bis auf 150 US-Dollar treiben. Katar hat seine LNG-Produktion bereits gestoppt. Erschwerend kommt nun hinzu kommt, sind sehr schwache US-Arbeitsmarkt. Es gingen 92.000 Stellen im Februar verloren. Die Wall Street rechnete mit 59.000 geschaffenen Jobs. Die Arbeitslosenrate steigt auf 4,4 Prozent. Einzelne Techwerte wie Marvell, Guidewire und Samsara profitieren derweil von starken Quartalszahlen. Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. ► Mehr Einblicke: https://bit.ly/360wallstreetpc * Impressum: https://www.360wallstreet.de/impressum *Werbung

Well... That’s Interesting
Ep. 270: Let's Talk About The Time Garfield Phones And Black Leather Victorian Shoes Mysteriously Washed Ashore

Well... That’s Interesting

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 5, 2026 28:04


Who is up for a walk on the beach? Great! Bring some gloves and a thinking cap because we need to solve not one but 2 puzzles. — Support and sponsor this show! Venmo Tip Jar: @wellthatsinteresting Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@wellthatsinterestingpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Bluesky: @wtipod Threads: @wellthatsinterestingpod Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@wti_pod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Listen on YouTube!! Oh, BTW. You're interesting. Email YOUR facts, stories, experiences... Nothing is too big or too small. I'll read it on the show: wellthatsinterestingpod@gmail.com WTI is a part of the Airwave Media podcast network! Visit AirwaveMedia.com to listen and subscribe to other incredible shows. Want to advertise your glorious product on WTI? Email me: wellthatsinterestingpod@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Wall Street Skinny
Iran Is Shaking the Oil Markets. What the Top Commodities Traders Are Thinking Right Now

The Wall Street Skinny

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 5, 2026 51:21


Send a textIn this special emergency episode of The Wall Street Skinny, we sat down with Andreas Laskaratos, CEO of AB Commodities Group, a global oil and gas shipping and trading firm with operations spanning Europe, Asia, and the Americas. Andreas is one of the few people in the world who operates across both the physical and financial sides of the commodities complex, and he's been a longtime friend of the show.With Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz, shipping rates spiking 5x overnight, and 20% of global oil flow suddenly in question, there was no one we wanted to talk to more. Andreas walks us through the mechanics of what's actually happening when it comes to oil, natural gas, and the broader commodities complex.We cover everything from the basics (WTI vs. Brent, what actually comes out of a barrel of crude, why it costs Saudi Arabia $5 to extract oil and the U.S. $50) to the trades being put on right now, why China is likely hurting the most, and what the 45-day timeline to $150 oil actually looks like. Andreas also had his war insurance canceled in real time while we were recording, which pretty much tells you everything you need to know about where things stand.Whether you work in finance, energy, or you're just trying to understand why your gas prices look the way they do this is the best crash course you'll get in commodities in under an hour.For a 14 day FREE Trial of Macabacus, click HEREShop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others' experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

Market Maker
Oil Shock: What the Iran Conflict Means for Inflation & Markets

Market Maker

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 5, 2026 51:31


Oil prices are surging as tensions escalate between the US, Israel and Iran but what does it mean for inflation, interest rates and global markets?In this episode of the AmplifyME Market Maker Podcast, Anthony Cheung and Piers Curran break down the macroeconomic implications of the rapidly escalating conflict in the Middle East and explain why traders and investors are paying close attention to energy markets.With Brent crude jumping sharply and the Strait of Hormuz once again emerging as a critical geopolitical chokepoint, the discussion explores how disruptions to global energy supply could ripple through the financial system. Around 20% of global oil supply passes through this narrow shipping lane, meaning any disruption has the potential to push energy prices higher and reshape inflation expectations worldwide.The episode also examines how rising energy prices could influence Federal Reserve policy, delay potential interest rate cuts and create fresh inflation pressure just as central banks believed price stability was returning. The hosts discuss the different risks facing the US and Europe, and whether this geopolitical shock is likely to be a short-term flare-up or the beginning of a broader economic risk.(00:00) Iran Conflict & Market Impact(02:10) Strait of Hormuz Explained(09:07) Brent vs WTI(10:38) Why Oil Matters for the Economy(13:10) Shipping Risks in the Gulf(15:35) Trump's Oil Strategy(19:11) Oil and the US Economy(20:52) Will Oil Delay Rate Cuts?(21:52) Strategic Oil Reserves(28:15) Impact on Markets(31:21) Warsh's Baptism of Fire(35:10) Short-Term Oil Shock?(39:31) Europe's Inflation Risk(44:04) ECB's Monetary Policy Disaster(46:00) Will Central Banks Hike?

The Options Insider Radio Network
The Futures Rundown 68: Energy is Inescapable

The Options Insider Radio Network

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 5, 2026 50:00


Energy is the "800-pound gorilla" in the markets this week. As geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz becomes a critical flashpoint, products like crude oil, heating oil, and RBOB are dominating the tape. Is this a permanent shift or a temporary shock? In this episode, host Mark Longo is joined by Brian Pieri, founder of Energy Rogue, to break down the "geopolitical premium" currently baked into energy prices. We dive deep into why energy is truly inescapable for any futures trader and why one specific product—heating oil—is outperforming the rest of the complex by nearly 30% in a single week. In this episode, you'll learn: The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Why 20-25 million barrels a day are at risk and what "naval escorts" actually mean for supply. Crude Oil Outlook: Brian's case for why WTI and Brent might actually head back to the $60s despite the headlines. The "Heating Oil" Phenomenon: Analyzing the massive spread between gasoline (RBOB) and distillates. The Trading Pit: Winners and losers in Silver, Palladium, and a surprising rally in Bitcoin futures. Resources: Analyze the markets with Brian: EnergyRogue.com Futures Brokerage: tastytrade.com/podcasts Join the Network: TheOptionsInsider.com/Pro

C.O.B. Tuesday
"The U.S. Military Is The Finest Military In The World" With Admiral Bill McRaven, Teddy Bunzel, George Bilicic, Lazard

C.O.B. Tuesday

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 4, 2026 59:32


Today we had the honor of welcoming three powerhouse guests from Lazard for an engaging discussion at the intersection of geopolitics, global security, and energy markets. Joining us were Admiral Bill McRaven, Retired Four-Star Admiral in the U.S. Navy and Senior Advisor at Lazard, Theodore Bunzel, Head of Lazard Geopolitical Advisory, and George Bilicic, Vice Chairman and Global Head of Power, Energy and Infrastructure. Bill is a Professor of National Security at the University of Texas Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs and previously served as Chancellor of the University of Texas System. During his military career, he commanded special operations forces at every level and led U.S. Special Operations Command. He oversaw the missions to capture both Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. He joined Lazard as a Senior Advisor in 2021. Teddy has spent his career at the intersection of international political and economic affairs and financial services. He joined Lazard from BlackRock and also serves as a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy. George Bilicic previously led Lazard's Midwest Advisory Business and has over 20 years of experience at Lazard in the investment banking business. His prior roles include senior positions at Cravath, Merrill Lynch, KKR, and Sempra Energy. Our conversation began with Bill's insights into the situation in Iran and the broader Middle East, including what we are learning four days in, the difference between a more “surgical” campaign and a broader strike strategy, and the ways Tehran may try to expand the conflict and prolong it. Bill shares his assessment of the military operation so far, why Iran's missile and drone response was expected, what surprised him tactically, how decentralizing command and control complicates targeting, and why regime change is far more complex than simply removing leadership. We explore the risks around the Strait of Hormuz, the realities of stockpiles and logistics, the strain of sustained deployments, and what seamless U.S.-Israel military coordination signals to China and Russia as they assess this new geopolitical map. George outlines what this volatility is doing in boardrooms around the world, from capital allocation and cost of capital to supply chain realignment, tariff sensitivity, and the growing premium on reliable 24/7 power. Teddy explains how Lazard integrates real-time geopolitical analysis into client strategy, why regulatory decision-making is becoming more discretionary, how European leaders are grappling with structural energy vulnerability and higher costs, how allies and European boardrooms are reassessing U.S. reliability, and why “trusted supply” is becoming central to LNG contracting and long-term energy security. We end by looking at the uncertain path forward, including the limits of prediction, the sustainability of current operations, and how geopolitics is increasingly embedded in corporate decision-making. Thank you to Bill, Teddy, and George for the insightful and timely discussion. Mike Bradley started off by noting that this week's macro conversation has been dominated by U.S. military strikes against Iran and the potential short- and intermediate-term market fallout. In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield moved up to 4.06% (up 12 bps), while some perceived safe havens like gold and silver were ironically lower on the week. In crude, WTI spiked Tuesday to roughly $78/bbl before pulling back to around $74/bbl, amid reports that the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut—halting approximately 15 mmbpd of oil shipments. Oil retraced from intraday highs as markets focused on President Trump proposing financial security and military escorts for tankers in and out of the Gulf, rather than an SPR release. Refined products moved sharply higher, with wholesale diesel, gasoline, and heating oil up roughly 20% this week. Globally, Qatari LNG was shut down for the first time in 30+ years, help

Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Farmers Now Unable to Buy Fertilizer?? Impact from Iran Attacks

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 3, 2026 15:37


Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.The war in Iran poses risks to global fertilizer production and supply chains

Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Why War in the Middle East is Moving Grain Prices

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 2, 2026 13:37


Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

The Wall Street Skinny
Paramount Outbids Netflix for WBD & Middle East Military Action Fallout | Emergency Episode

The Wall Street Skinny

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 2, 2026 26:07


Send a textKristen and Jen tackle two major stories in this double emergency episode. First, Kristen breaks down latest update in the Warner Bros saga — how Paramount outbid Netflix with a $31/share offer, why Netflix walked away, and what the deal means financially. They cover the cursed history of Warner Bros. M&A deals, the staggering leverage Paramount is taking on (potentially the largest LBO ever), the accretion/dilution math that made this a non-starter for Netflix, and why it's an existential move for Paramount. They also get into the ticking fee structure, the $7 billion breakup fee, and why so many people are nervous about this outcome.Jen then covers the weekend's military action in the Middle East and how it's hitting markets on Monday. She walks through the relatively muted equity reaction, the split between defense stocks and travel names, the divergence between WTI and Brent crude, and why treasuries initially rallied before selling off. The yield curve is bare flattening as the market prices out near-term Fed cuts, since sustained oil price shocks would feed through to broader inflation beyond just energy. Gold is catching a bid as the classic risk-off trade, while Europe looks more vulnerable than the US to prolonged disruption given its energy dependence.Coming later this week: episodes recorded at the I Connections conference, including an Investor Relations 101 conversation and a look at where allocators are directing capital this year, with equity long/short and macro funds gaining ground over last year's private credit buzz.To subscribe to our substack click HEREFor a 14 day FREE Trial of Macabacus, click HEREShop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others' experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

FactSet U.S. Daily Market Preview
Financial Market Preview - Monday 2-Mar

FactSet U.S. Daily Market Preview

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 2, 2026 5:51


US equity futures are under pressure with S&P down . Bonds mixed. US 10-year yield is firmer at 4%. Gilts off 1 bps at 4.3%. Dollar is mostly firmer, though off session highs in overnight trade. Oil sharply higher with WTI crude up around 7.5%. European gas prices more than 20% higher. Gold and silver gain. Industrial metals firmer. Bitcoin lower. US and Israel launched air strikes against Iran that targeted military assets, government and IRGC facilities and missile bases, killing Supreme Leader Khamanei and several high-level officials. Trump is optimistic about war's progress, mentioning offramps and claiming Iran's new leaders in talks. Media sources also note Iran's security chief has reached out for fresh nuclear talks. Iran has widened retaliation to Gulf states, resulting in airport shutdowns. Conflict has also disrupted shipping through Strait of Hormuz though oil price impact subject to multiple variables.Companies Mentioned: Paramount Skydance, Warner Bros. Discovery

Focus economia
Petrolio in volata, strappa anche il gas a +50%

Focus economia

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 2, 2026


L'operazione "Epic Fury" contro l'Iran riporta il rischio geopolitico al centro dei mercati energetici. Il nodo è lo Stretto di Hormuz: da lì transitano circa 20 milioni di barili al giorno su 105 di domanda globale, ma soprattutto quasi metà del petrolio scambiato via mare, cioè quello che fa davvero il prezzo. Il Brent sale oltre 78 dollari, il WTI sopra 71. Il gas europeo balza a 45 euro/MWh (+40%), dopo che QatarEnergy ha annunciato lo stop alla produzione di GNL a Ras Laffan a seguito degli attacchi. Per il petrolio esiste ancora un cuscinetto di offerta - anche grazie agli Stati Uniti, oggi a 13,5 milioni di barili al giorno - ma sul gas la situazione è molto più fragile. L'Europa, che ha sostituito 150 miliardi di metri cubi di gas russo con GNL, dipende in modo cruciale dal Qatar: il 20% del GNL globale passa da Hormuz. Senza alternative immediate, ogni tensione si scarica direttamente sul TTF e quindi sulle bollette elettriche, soprattutto in Italia. L'Opec+ annuncia un aumento di produzione ad aprile, ma mantiene massima flessibilità. Il mercato, però, guarda alla continuità dei flussi: se Hormuz si blocca, il surplus globale si azzera.La reazione dei MercatiNon è panico, è riduzione del rischio. I mercati stanno ricalibrando le probabilità. Il petrolio è il primo termometro, ma i segnali arrivano anche da oro, Treasury e Vix, ai massimi del 2026. Bitcoin inizialmente scende del 4% per poi recuperare rapidamente: segnale che l'escalation viene considerata, per ora, circoscritta. Le Borse europee cedono terreno, in particolare industriali e banche. Salgono energia e difesa. Il FTSE MIB è in netto ribasso. Il punto chiave è la parte lunga della curva Usa. A febbraio il decennale è sceso sotto il 4% nonostante petrolio in rialzo e PPI sopra le attese. È una divergenza anomala: se il greggio consolidasse sopra 80-100 dollari, i rendimenti potrebbero risalire per timori inflattivi. Se invece continuassero a scendere, il mercato starebbe prezzando un rallentamento economico più profondo. La domanda centrale resta una: shock energetico temporaneo o cambio di ciclo macro? La risposta arriverà dai tassi americani. Interviene Giacomo Calef, Responsabile per l'Italia di NS Partners.Caos nei cieli del Golfo: spazio aereo off limits e oltre 5mila voli cancellatiLa chiusura simultanea degli spazi aerei di Iran, Israele, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrein, Kuwait, Siria ed Emirati Arabi riporta il trasporto aereo a uno scenario da emergenza globale. Oltre 5.000 voli cancellati in due giorni, con gli hub di Dubai, Doha e Abu Dhabi particolarmente colpiti. Gli scali di Dubai e Abu Dhabi hanno subito danni diretti; nello Zayed International Airport si registra anche una vittima. Più di 20 mila passeggeri assistiti negli Emirati, ma il problema è sistemico: quegli hub movimentano circa 90 mila passeggeri al giorno e sono snodi cruciali tra Europa, Asia e Africa. Non è solo una crisi regionale: la chiusura del Golfo spezza corridoi intercontinentali, altera rotte globali e aumenta costi e tempi. L'aviazione civile è tra i primi settori a pagare il prezzo dell'instabilità geopolitica. Il commento è di Gregory Alegi, professore di Storia e politica delle Americhe presso l'Università Luiss, ed esperto del settore aeronautico.

The Options Insider Radio Network
TWIFO 486: Widowmakers and Lethal Weapons

The Options Insider Radio Network

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 27, 2026 48:02


On this episode of This Week in Futures Options, Mark Longo and Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading dive into a turbulent week across the CME Group complex. From the post-Nvidia "bloodletting" in the equities to the persistent volatility in the energy pits, they break down the moves that matter. In This Episode: The Movers & Shakers: A heavy tilt toward the "light side" with metals dominating the leaderboard. Why silver and platinum are lighting up the tape while the "Widowmaker" Nat Gas slides. Equities: Analyzing the post-earnings Nvidia hangover. Is the market rotation finally here, and what's behind the massive hunt for yield in the Nasdaq? Energy: Getting "Crude" with WTI. Carley explains why the Middle East tension is priced in, but the real story might be coming from Venezuela. Plus, a look at those tempting (and cheap) downside puts. Metals: Why speculators are suddenly "getting base" with Copper. Is Copper the next big meme trade, or is it just a classic boom-and-bust cycle?

Thoughts on the Market
Oil Rallies on Fresh Uncertainty

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 26, 2026 4:55


Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats discusses the geopolitical drivers behind the recent spike in oil prices and outlines four Iran scenarios.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodities Strategist.Today – what's fueling the latest oil market rally.It's Thursday, February 26th, at 3pm in London.What happens when oil prices jump, even though there's no actual shortage of oil? That's the situation we're in right now. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated again. Naturally, markets are paying attention.Over the past week, Brent crude rose about $3 to around $72 per barrel. WTI climbed into the mid-$60s. Shipping costs surged. And traders have started paying a premium for protection against a sudden oil spike – the levels we haven't seen since the early days of the Ukrainian invasion.But here's the key point: there's no clear evidence that global oil supply has tightened. Exports are still flowing. Tankers are still moving. And some near-term indicators of physical tightness have actually softened. When oil is truly scarce, buyers scramble for immediate barrels and short-term prices spike relative to future delivery. Instead, those spreads have narrowed, and physical premiums have eased.This isn't a supply shock. It's a risk premium. In simple terms, investors are buying insurance. So what could happen next? We see four broad scenarios.Before I outline them though, here's something we do not see as a core case: a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 15 million barrels per day of crude and another 5 million of refined product moves through that corridor. A sustained shutdown would be enormously disruptive. But we think the probability is very low.Now coming back to our four scenarios. The first is straightforward. A negotiated settlement; conflict is avoided. Iranian exports continue and shipping lanes remain open. In that scenario, what unwinds is the geopolitical risk premium – which we estimate at roughly $7 to $9 per barrel. If that fades, Brent could drift back to the low-to-mid $60s, similar to past episodes where prices spiked on fear and then retraced once supply proves unaffected.Second, we could see short-lived frictions – shipping delays, higher insurance costs, temporary logistical issues. That might remove a few hundred thousand barrels per day for, say, a few weeks.. Prices could briefly spike into the $75–80 range. But balancing forces would kick in relatively quickly. For example, China has been building inventories at a steady pace. At higher prices, that stockbuilding would likely slow, helping offset temporary disruptions. That points to some further upside in prices – but then normalization.The third scenario is more serious, but still contained: localized export losses of perhaps 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day for a month or two. Prices would stay elevated longer, but spare capacity and demand adjustments could eventually stabilize the market.Now our last scenario is the more serious and considers a potential shipping shock. The real risk here isn't wells shutting down – it's shipping disruption. Global trade of crude oil depends on efficient tanker movement. If transit times were extended even modestly, effective shipping capacity could fall sharply, creating what amounts to a temporary tightening of about 2 to 3 million barrels per day – or about 6 percent of global seaborne supply. That is a logistics shock, not a production outage – but it would push prices toward early-2022-type levels, at least briefly.Now let's zoom out. Beyond geopolitics, the fundamentals look weak. OPEC+ supply is rising, and our forecasts show a sizable surplus building in 2026. Even if some of that oil ends up in China's stockpiles, a lot would still likely flow into core OECD inventories. Historically, when the market looks like this, prices tend to fall, not rise.Which brings us back to the central point. Oil isn't rallying because the world has run out of barrels. It's rallying because markets are pricing geopolitical risk. And unless that risk turns into actual, sustained disruption, insurance premiums tend to expire.Thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.This podcast references jurisdiction(s) or person(s) which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

Well... That’s Interesting
Ep. 269: JWST Discovers An Exoplanet So Strange, Even Researchers Are Speechless + Ancient Bees Laid Eggs In Fossilized Tooth Sockets

Well... That’s Interesting

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 26, 2026 34:00


Space and bees are the 2 things that just keep giving. Get ready for weird.  — Support and sponsor this show! Venmo Tip Jar: @wellthatsinteresting Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@wellthatsinterestingpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Bluesky: @wtipod Threads: @wellthatsinterestingpod Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@wti_pod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Listen on YouTube!! Oh, BTW. You're interesting. Email YOUR facts, stories, experiences... Nothing is too big or too small. I'll read it on the show: wellthatsinterestingpod@gmail.com WTI is a part of the Airwave Media podcast network! Visit AirwaveMedia.com to listen and subscribe to other incredible shows. Want to advertise your glorious product on WTI? Email me: wellthatsinterestingpod@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

C.O.B. Tuesday
"We're Going To Have To Pay The Resilience Premium" Featuring Dr. Fiona Murray, MIT

C.O.B. Tuesday

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 25, 2026 53:20


Today we had the very exciting and interesting opportunity to visit with Dr. Fiona Murray, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Co-Director of the Innovation Initiative at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Fiona is an internationally recognized policy expert on innovation ecosystems and the transformation of investments in science and technology into deep-tech startup ventures that address global challenges. In addition to her roles at MIT, where she previously served as an Associate Dean for Innovation, she is Chair of the NATO Innovation Fund and an Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. She was awarded a Commander of the Order of the British Empire for her services to innovation and entrepreneurship in the United Kingdom. Fiona also serves on the UK Ministry of Defence Innovation Advisory Panel and the European Innovation Council Joint Expert Group and sits on a number of boards. We were thrilled to host Fiona to explore global markets, innovation ecosystems, and the shifting geopolitical landscape shaping technology and capital flows. In our conversation, Fiona shares her perspective on the intersection of geopolitics and innovation and how geopolitical shocks increasingly shape technology development and commercialization. She outlines the post-2016 shift toward framing priority technologies through the lens of national and economic security, and the growing geopolitical constraints facing entrepreneurs. Drawing on discussions at the Munich Security Conference, Fiona highlights Europe's strong talent base alongside structural constraints, including smaller venture capital pools, fragmented markets, pension fund limitations, and bureaucratic procurement processes. We explore how defense and security startups think about U.S. versus European capital and transatlantic expansion, the growing importance of dual-use investment, and resilience as a business case. Fiona explains NATO's two-pronged innovation strategy and emphasizes the need for a “resilience premium” to support domestic and allied production. We discuss China's competitive innovation model, industrial policy lessons for the West, and the need to scale critical technologies to reduce supply chain dependence and rebuild manufacturing capacity across allied markets. Fiona also shares her perspective at MIT, where students are increasingly prioritizing defense, security, and resilience, alongside energy and climate reframed through critical minerals and system resilience, with AI integration across disciplines. We cover AI's role in lowering experimentation costs through simulation, large-company AI execution pitfalls, drone and autonomy lessons from Ukraine, and how to avoid overspending on AI. We close by asking where she sees innovation over the next decade, which she describes as “innovation at the extremes,” including fusion energy, Arctic navigation and mining, space commercialization, and other frontier environments. It was a fascinating discussion and we greatly appreciate Fiona for sharing her valuable time and insights. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that this week is centered on Tuesday's State of the Union address and the policy implications that follow. On the bond market front, the 10-year remains steady, with traders' attention turning to Friday's PPI report. On the crude oil market front, WTI is trading at ~$66/bbl as markets weigh the potential for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal versus whether the U.S. follows through on its threat of limited military strikes. WTI price could fall to low-$60/bbl if a nuclear deal is reached or rise to $70/bbl on escalation. The DJIA and S&P 500 are both up marginally since the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's global tariffs last Friday. Technology stocks have staged a modest rebound after several weeks of underperformance. Energy has outperformed over the past week but has underperformed since last Friday's tariff announcement. E&Ps will dominate

Well... That’s Interesting
Ep. 268: To No One's Surprise, Yelling At Rats Affected Their Fertility + That Time It Rained Fish In India (And Other Places)

Well... That’s Interesting

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 19, 2026 29:46


Join me as I use my indoor voice to explain the effects of raised voices and how animals from other continents can make an appearance in your town. — Support and sponsor this show! Venmo Tip Jar: @wellthatsinteresting Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@wellthatsinterestingpod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Bluesky: @wtipod Threads: @wellthatsinterestingpod Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@wti_pod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Listen on YouTube!! Oh, BTW. You're interesting. Email YOUR facts, stories, experiences... Nothing is too big or too small. I'll read it on the show: wellthatsinterestingpod@gmail.com WTI is a part of the Airwave Media podcast network! Visit AirwaveMedia.com to listen and subscribe to other incredible shows. Want to advertise your glorious product on WTI? Email me: wellthatsinterestingpod@gmail.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Lions of Liberty Network
TLPP: Neoborn Caveman - Everything is Blurry

Lions of Liberty Network

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 18, 2026 55:46


Today I'm joined by Neoborn Caveman to discuss the Shakespeare-Lou Perez-David Duchovny connection, the Alice in Wonderland Protocol, and over (re)sharing. Check out my book, That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore: On the Death and Rebirth of Comedy https://amzn.to/3VhFa1r     Watch my sketch comedy streaming on Red Coral Universe: https://redcoraluniverse.com/en/series/the-lou-perez-comedy-68501a2fd369683d0f2a2a88?loopData=true&ccId=675bc891f78f658f73eaa46d  Rock XX-XY Athletics. You can get 20% off your purchase with promo code LOU20. https://www.xx-xyathletics.com/?sca_ref=7113152.ifIMaKpCG3ZfUHH4  Support me at www.substack.com/@louperez     Join my newsletter www.TheLouPerez.com   Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/.../the-lou-perez.../id1535032081   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2KAtC7eFS3NHWMZp2UgMVU   Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/.../2b7d4d.../the-lou-perez-podcast   YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLb5trMQQvT077-L1roE0iZyAgT4dD4EtJ   Lou Perez is a comedian, producer, and the author of THAT JOKE ISN'T FUNNY ANYMORE: ON THE DEATH AND REBIRTH OF COMEDY. You may have seen him on Gutfeld! , FOX News Primetime, One Nation with Brian Kilmeade, and Open to Debate (with Michael Ian Black). Lou was the Head Writer and Producer of the Webby Award-winning comedy channel We the Internet TV. During his tenure at WTI, Lou made the kind of comedy that gets you put on lists and your words in the Wall Street Journal: “How I Became a ‘Far-Right Radical.'” As a stand-up comedian, Lou has opened for Rob Schneider, Rich Vos, Jimmy Dore, Dave Smith, and toured the US and Canada with Scott Thompson. Lou has also produced live shows with Colin Quinn, the Icarus Festival, and the Rutherford Comedy Festival. For years, Lou performed at the Upright Citizens Brigade Theater (both in NYC and L.A.) in sketch shows with the Hammerkatz and his comedy duo, Greg and Lou. Greg and Lou is best known for its sketch "Wolverine's Claws Suck," which has over 20 million views on YouTube alone. In addition to producing sketch comedy like Comedy Is Murder, performing stand-up across the country, and writing for The Blaze's Align, Lou is on the advisory board of Heresy Press, a FAIR-in-the-arts fellow, and host of the live debate series The Wrong Take and The Lou Perez Podcast (which is part of the Lions of Liberty Podcast Network), and co-hosts Happy Hour Econ with Phil Magness. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices