Podcasts about wti

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Primary Vision Network
EIA UPDATE - The Shift in Refinery Capacity Around the World, Trucking Data Tanks Again- What Does it Mean for Diesel?, What Comes From the OPEC+ Meeting?

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2022 58:52


Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!Go here to get started! https://primaryvision.co/subscription-plan/

C.O.B. Tuesday
"At The Helm Of Creating Prosperity Around The World" Featuring Tisha Schuller, Adamantine Energy

C.O.B. Tuesday

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2022 64:43


Today we welcomed back our good friend Tisha Schuller, Founder and CEO of Adamantine Energy. Tisha first appeared on COBT in March of 2021 and we're thrilled to visit with her just a few weeks after she's published her latest book, "Real Decarbonization: How Oil and Gas Companies Are Seizing the Low-Carbon Future." Tisha is based out of Denver and was previously the President and CEO of the Colorado Oil & Gas Association before founding Adamantine Energy, where she and her team provide thought leadership to energy businesses. We had lots of fun digging into the core themes of the book! In our conversation, Tisha first shares the inspiration behind writing "Real Decarbonization" including the disconnect between public perceptions around decarbonization and reality. We then dive into the importance of understanding the opposing community's perspective and the shift to focus on building things rather than opposing them, Tisha's call for action to create "unconventional engagements," navigating greenwashing, how CEOs are driving the decarbonization force, the four paths to decarbonization as described in Tisha's book, how the IRA has affected traditional paradigms of opposing conservatives and liberals, personal evolution and shifting industry pride, differences in decarbonization goals for public and private companies, the definition of decarbonized, and much more. We had a hard time wrapping the discussion and ended with Tisha's view for the energy world in ten years. It was a whopper of a conversation! The Veriten crew started the show: Mike Bradley focused on the move/volatility in crude oil markets as well as the handful of dynamics (China lockdowns, upcoming OPEC Meeting & EU Russian Price-Caps) that are driving volatility and have plunged Brent and WTI crude oil time spreads into contango. He also noted the 12-month WTI crude oil strip and energy equities have been decoupling over the past few months due to investor's comfort with higher future "normalized" prices, continued significant return OF capital and strict capex discipline even in the mist of high commodity prices. Colin Fenton trained the spotlight on precious metals. Advances in silver and gold prices are suddenly building momentum, as investors flee crypto markets and look nervously at USD weakness and other signs that central bankers will not have the stomach to squash inflation expectations. Mar-23 CMX silver ($21.41 per troy ounce) has gained 22% since its recent low in early September, and Feb-23 CMX gold ($1762 per troy oz) is now priced about 8% higher than at its recent low on November 3, 2022. Each price is far below its all-time high in either nominal or real terms. Thanks to you all for your friendship and support! 

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
Euro Market Open: Sentiment slips amid ongoing China COVID concerns & subsequent unrest

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2022 4:21


APAC stocks traded mostly lower with risk appetite sapped by the ongoing COVID-related issues in China which has resulted in public unrest.European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.6% after cash markets closed flat on Friday.DXY remains stuck on a 106 handle, EUR/USD lingers around 1.0350, JPY outperforms G10 FX, antipodeans lag.Crude declined with Brent beneath USD 82/bbl for the first time since January and WTI printed a YTD low.Looking ahead, highlights include EU Money Supply and Private Sector Loans, Speeches from ECB's Lagarde & de Cos, Fed's Williams & Bullard.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Squawk on the Street
China Unrest Pressures Stocks, Black Friday Bonanza and Town Hall Time for Disney CEO Iger. 11/28/22

Squawk on the Street

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2022 43:04


Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer kicked off the week by focusing on global markets under pressure, as protests in China over that country's "zero-COVID" policy spark concerns about growth and demand in the world's second largest economy. Coverage includes a report from on the ground in Beijing. The anchors also discussed the latest holiday shopping report cards, including data from Adobe which show Black Friday online sales set a new record. Disney also in the spotlight ahead of CEO Bob Iger's Monday town hall meeting with employees. Also in focus: Upgrades for Activision, WTI crude falls into negative territory for the year and casino stocks get a Macau boost.

Making Sense
Warning after warning after warning...now another big one.

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2022 17:55


Major, sweeping inversion. WTI contango. In 2018, these warnings happened just prior to the Fed being forced out of its rate hike plans for 2019 because the economy and markets were more and more messed up. Before those, however, there was another huge shakeup...from China. All the same numbers are coming up in Nov '22, including the latest today...from China. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.marketsinsiderpro.comhttps://www.PortfolioShield.netRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7THE EPISODESYouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrPodcastRepublic:https://bit.ly/3LH8JlVDISCLOSURESJeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.

Primary Vision Network
EIA Update - Where Does Global Diesel Go From Here?, Demand Softens Ahead of Thanksgiving, Global Differentials Take a Another Hit

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 24, 2022 16:37


Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!

Worldwide Exchange
Higher Oil Prices, More Retail Earnings, and Lower Futures This Morning 11/22/22

Worldwide Exchange

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2022 45:06


Oil prices are edging higher today after both WTI and Brent Crude dove more than $5 a barrel to 10-month lows yesterday. Again Capital's John Kilduff breaks down the outlook for energy ahead of OPEC's next meeting. Plus, it's the final stretch for retail earnings before holiday shopping season kicks off with Black Friday this week. SW Retail Advisors' Stacey Widlitz discusses which names to watch. And, futures are pointing towards a muted open, but will there be a Tuesday turnaround during this shortened week? CIC Wealth's Malcolm Ethridge, Potomac Wealth Advisors' Mark Avallone, and Aureus Asset Management's Kari Firestone weigh in.

Primary Vision Network
EIA Update - Russia Sends More Product To the Middle East & Asia, What Will the Winter Bring for Disty?, OPEC Reduces Demand Estimates as WAF Flows Slow

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 17, 2022 63:49


Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!Go here to get started! https://primaryvision.co/subscription-plan/

The PetroNerds Podcast
Nat Gas with EQT’s Toby Rice

The PetroNerds Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 14, 2022 51:16


Recorded on November 4, 2022 https://youtu.be/0BbPlG1M-ek Episode 64 of the PetroNerds podcast is a natural gas special with guest Toby Rice, CEO of EQT. EQT is the largest natural gas producer in the US, producing roughly 6 Bcf/day. Trisha and Toby chat about the state of the gas market, LNG and global macro, ESG, unleashing US shale, the prolific Marcellus, and the lack of pipeline capacity throttling EQT's growth capabilities. Trisha pushes Toby on his positioning and stance around C02 and ESG, especially in the context of energy security. She does not think they agree. He thinks they agree on everything. This is a great back and forth you are not going to want to miss. WTI $91.32, Brent $97.48, Henry Hub $6.15, Dutch TTF $/MMBtu $36, 30 Year Mortgage 7.29%, 10 Year Yield 4.17% Listen on Itunes

Roofing Road Trips with Heidi
Coffee Conversations - Mental Health Safety in the Workplace

Roofing Road Trips with Heidi

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2022 61:12


Join us for this Coffee Conversations, sponsored by Tremco and WTI, as we talk about mental health in construction. Our industry ranks second highest in suicide rates and research shows that up to 90 percent of people who die by suicide have a mental health condition. We welcome Mandy McIntyre of Level Up Consultants, who is certified in Mental Health First Aid, along with Christee Holbrook of Graham Roofing and Tom Truelson of Forest Roofing who will discuss how they approach this topic within their roofing companies. They will also share strategies for creating a culture of support and understanding to help team members who may be struggling with their mental health. Grab a cup of coffee and join us for this life-changing conversation. Learn more at RoofersCoffeeShop.com! Sign up for the Week in Roofing!

C.O.B. Tuesday
"It's Not A Regulatory Problem, It's A Deregulatory Problem" Featuring Ted Nordhaus, The Breakthrough Institute

C.O.B. Tuesday

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 9, 2022 61:12


Today we had a fantastic guest join us, Ted Nordhaus. Ted is the Founder and Executive Director of The Breakthrough Institute and a co-author of "An Ecomodernist Manifesto" as well as "The Death of Environmentalism." Ted has spent his career advocating for technical solutions to environmental problems and is a thought leader on energy, the environment, and global climate. We covered a lot of territory in our time together and were thrilled to visit with him! The Breakthrough Institute is a global research center that seeks innovative technological solutions to environmental and human development challenges. We enjoyed learning more about their areas of impact and in our discussion we also touched on Ted's observations on the current state of the environmental world, his recent article in Foreign Policy, the issues with denying developing countries resources and infrastructure to use fossil fuels, the impact of Ted's upbringing and background, which countries are funding developing nation's energy growth, nuclear as a prime example of technology that has both scale and impact, the deregulatory movement needed to fix seventies era environmental laws that are still in place, and much more. We could have continued for much longer and greatly appreciate Ted for joining. In our upfront discussion, Mike Bradley shared bond, commodity and equity performance from the past week noting the widest inversion of two and ten-year US government bond yields since 2000, natural gas pricing's tie to demand over the next few weeks, midterm elections, and COP 27. Colin Fenton zoned in on oil and gas prices, specifically the difference in probability for NYMEX and WTI prices over the next few weeks compared to 2023. We also had Veriten's nuclear champion Brett Rampal join for today's session. We hope you will enjoy the session as much as we did. Thanks to you all! 

Primary Vision Network
EIA Update - Changing Russian Flows Heading into 2023, Diesel Shortage Only Getting Worse on the East Coast, What is Happening to Global Differentials?

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 9, 2022 60:07


Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!Go here to get started! https://primaryvision.co/subscription-plan/

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Sentiment improved with focus on China's COVID updates; Apple trimmed its iPhone output forecast

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 7, 2022 2:55


Major bourses in Europe kicked off the session with mild losses across the board, but have since moved firmly into the green amid China-COVID focusAmidst this, the DXY has faded significantly from an initial rebound to 111.28 highs; currently, holding around 110.30 to the mixed benefit of peersCore counterparts have spent the morning under pressure amid the increasingly constructive risk tone; however, this has eased and USTs are now essentially unchanged.WTI and Brent futures have trimmed losses seen in wake of China sticking to its COVID policy over the weekend.AAPL has trimmed its iPhone output forecast amid cooling demand, via BBG, while Foxconn restrictions impact 14 Pro/Max assemblyLooking ahead, highlights include speeches from BoE's Pill, Fed's Barkin, Mester & Collins, UK QT (medium-term).Click here for the Week Ahead preview.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The PetroNerds Podcast
Colorado DJ with Nickel Road

The PetroNerds Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 4, 2022 49:49


Recorded on October 27, 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XG7Jl5DPnag Episode 63 of the PetroNerds podcast is another must listen to episode ahead of midterms. Trisha Curtis is joined by guest Andrew Haney, Co-President of Nickel Road Operating. Nickel Road is a private company operating in the Denver Julesburg Basin in Colorado. Trisha and Andrew discuss the current state of the oil market, the dramatic drop in natural gas prices, the IEA's recent report calling this the first global energy crisis and the need for more renewables and clean energy, the state of the oil market in Colorado and the ability and difficulty in obtaining permits. They also discuss the operational environment in Colorado, the high standards and requirements and regulations in Colorado, competition with other states, achievements on drilling times, lateral lengths, and well performance and much much more! On October 27th, 2022: WTI $88.85, Brent $96.78, Henry Hub $5.19, Dutch TTF $30.78, 30 Year Mortgage 7.04%, 10 Year Yield 3.95% Listen on Itunes

Primary Vision Network
EIA UPDATE - How Europe's Power Issues are Shaping the Energy Markets, The East Coast Continues to Struggle with Diesel Shortages, Middle Distillate Storage Drops Around the World (Again)

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 2, 2022 72:00


Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!Go here to get started! https://primaryvision.co/subscription-plan/

Well... That’s Interesting
Ep. 109: We Need To Talk About These Ancient Creatures For A Minute

Well... That’s Interesting

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2022 37:29


Big changes are happening here at WTI and we've got the beasts to match. Join us for 10ft tall prehistoric birds and otters. Really, really big otters. --- Love the show and wanna show some love? Venmo Tip Jar: @WellThatsInteresting Instagram: @wellthatsinterestingpod Twitter: @wti_pod Oh, BTW. You're interesting. Email us YOUR facts, stories, experiences... Nothing is too big or too small. We'll read it on the show: wellthatsinterestingpod@gmail.com --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wellthatsinteresting/support

CFR On the Record
Academic Webinar: Global Economics

CFR On the Record

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2022


Zongyuan Zoe Liu, fellow for international political economy at CFR, leads the conversation on global economics. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Welcome to today's session of the Fall 2022 CFR Academic Webinar Series. I'm Irina Faskianos, vice president of the National Program and Outreach at CFR. Today's discussion is on the record and the video and transcript will be available on our website, CFR.org/academic. As always, CFR takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. We're delighted to have Zongyuan Zoe Liu with us to talk about global economics. Dr. Liu is a fellow for international political economy at CFR. She previously served as an instructional assistant professor at Texas A&M's Bush School of Government and Public Service in Washington, D.C. And before that, she completed postdoctoral fellowships at the Columbia-Harvard China and the World program and the Center for International Environment and Research Policy at Tufts University. She served as a research fellow and research associate at many institutions—the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies, NYU's Stern Center for Sustainable Business, and at the Institute for International Monetary Affairs in Tokyo. Dr. Liu is the author of Can BRICS De-dollarize the Global Financial System?, published by Cambridge University Press; and Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances its Global Ambitions, forthcoming in 2023 by Harvard University Press. So we will stay tuned for that. So, Dr. Liu, thank you very much for being with us. This is a very broad topic, but it would be great if you could give us your analysis of the state of the global economy today. LIU: Yeah, thank you very much, Irina, for inviting me to do this. I really, truly appreciate the opportunity to engage with our college and national universities, both the faculties and the students. This makes me feel I'm very much still part of the academia community. So thank you very much, Irina, and thank you, everybody, for tuning in today. So I wanted to begin by saying that as an economist one thing that I learned is that we are very bad at making forecasting. And, once that forecasting is already very bad, but—and forget about the long run. But that being said, I hope our conversation today can at least exchange some perspectives in terms of how we think about global economy and how we think about some policy-relevant natures. So the first—I will begin by saying two statement, and then I will delve into it. The first statement I would say that I'm afraid that geopolitics probably would make economic forecasting, which is already a very difficult business, but geopolitics would likely make this business even more difficult going forward. And this is because global economic prospect will be more influenced by geopolitics and geopolitical tensions, in addition to pure supply and demand. So that is to say, for our—all our college students and our graduate students, who are either pursuing a political science degree, international relations, or economics, or anybody who are vaguely interested in understanding global economics, now this is the time to realize, well, the models may not—the models had their limitations before, and their limitations are probably going to be even more pronounced going forward. The pure supply-demand dimensions—price is set in certain ways—probably are not necessarily going to go that way. One such example would be the European Union and the United States are considering putting a price cap on Russian oil. And what does that mean? That probably means, well, it almost feel like for a long period of time there was this global cartel called the OPEC or OPEC+. These are the so-called sellers' cartel. And they have the power, the monopolistic power almost, in terms of setting the price of oil in the global market. But now we are probably going to see the other part of the story, which is what about a global buyers' cartel? And that is essentially what a price cap means. So long story short, I think geopolitics would play a lot into our analysis of global economics forecasting going forward. And then my second sort of quick statement would be in terms of global economic status today. I would say the key—like, let me take a step back. When we think about economic development, we tend to think about factors of production. Like, for our—again, for our students who probably learned this at the beginning of the semester, this is the time to refresh your concept. But key factors of production—one is resource, the other is technology, and then the other is labor. In terms of resources, you can think about natural resources as well as capital. So these three fundamental factors of production, I would say, they are all going through a period of changes. And these changes are not necessarily in a good way. So that, long story short, a lot of the changes now in global economic conditions may not necessarily be good. And I'm happy to go into a detailed analysis of why resources are not necessarily changing in a good way, or technology, or in terms of labor and demographics. But I'm also happy to stop here and then sort of answer questions or explain further going forward as well. FASKIANOS: Great. We will go to all of you to ask your questions. (Gives queuing instructions.) So we already have a question. It's from Fordham University. Raised hand. So you're going to tell us—have to tell us who you are and unmute yourself, or accept the unmute prompt. There you go. Q: Can you hear me? FASKIANOS: Yes. Q: OK, great. Yes, so I'm a third-year student at Fordham University. My name is Valerie Bejjani. And my question for you, Dr. Liu, pertains to your paper—your Cambridge-published paper—about non-dollar alternatives, which I find very fascinating. And it made me think about something I read for an international political economy class about how Keynes first introduced a non-dollar alternative called the bancor during the Bretton Woods Conference, but the U.S. shot it down. So I was curious about your opinion on this, whether you think it was a mistake for the U.S. not to accept it, and what you think the implications—the historical implications are for BRICS countries today that are trying to devise their own non-dollar alternatives? LIU: Thank you very much, Valerie, for your great question. And I have to—since we're on the record—I just have to say, this is not a planted question. (Laughs.) And I very much appreciate that you've given me the opportunity to talk about the research that I did before. So just a quick background about that research that I did, I finished the research last year—yeah, last year in the summer, in July. So when I submitted my manuscript, there was a review process, right? And then that was the moment when not everybody were interested in SWIFT, in SPFS, in China's cross-border banking—Cross-Border Payment System, or CIPS. So a lot of these alphabetic soups that everybody here are familiar with now, last year before Russia's invasion of Ukraine nobody was even interested. And one of the reviewers was even telling—had a comment there saying that, well, you know, don't necessarily think that these are good examples that deserve to—so many real estate. (Laughs.) But and then my publisher somehow engineered it such that my—that Cambridge publication came out right on the day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was—that was—as a researcher, you probably can never hope the timing in that way. So going back to your question, Valerie, I would say I highly appreciate that you raised the question. And I respect that—highly respect that you are already getting yourself familiarized with Keynesian and all the other historically speaking alternative monetary system or monetary concept as well. So that's all good. So keep doing what you are doing now and I look forward to continuing our conversation going forward. So your question, if I understand it correctly, so is it a good idea for the United States to shut it down, right? So I mean, if I were—I was obviously not in the policymaking room in those days, but I can certainly understand why the United States would want to maintain the dollar's dominant currency status in the global financial system. That's because if you are able to—if the dollar were the dominant currency, in the existing dollar—in the existing global financial system, that basically means on the one hand we can issue debt cheaply. And that literally means the U.S. Treasury is the proxy for risk re-asset. That has huge implications not just for our government debt and our physical expenditure. It also has a tremendous amount of stabilizing factor for our domestic financial institutions and the expansion of our banks in the international market. So from both public perspective and the international perspective, those are good. And the United States has, from a policymaking perspective, all our financial policymakers had their right to shut it down. Now, but if you ask this question from an alternative perspective—say, if you ask the question for—to, let's say, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney—former governor. If you ask him, he would probably tell you, well, this is a terrible idea that the United States would shut it off, because he specifically said in 2019 at the Jackson Hole symposium, when all the major central bankers were gathered in the big hall and talking about monetary policies, he was the one standing in front of everybody saying that, well, it's a terrible idea to have one single currency, which is the U.S. dollar, to dominate the global financial and monetary system. That is the reason why the system is not stable, hence we need to have an alternative system. Like a basket currency or something like that. So, if you ask people like him, he would be—like, be in favor of the diversity—of a more diversified global monetary system. And again, if you ask the countries like China or, for that matter, Russia or Iran, they would be way much more in favor of a much more diversified monetary system as well. And that may not necessarily, from, exchange rate perspective, exchange rate risk is an important aspect, but the more important aspect probably is from the geopolitical hegemonic power of the U.S. dollar. Which means, the U.S. sanctioning power really resides in the dollar being the dominant currency. So right now, we hear about U.S. can sanction Russia, sanction other countries. How that is being executed, it is literally being executed by our banks no longer processing the bank transactions of all the Russian banks. Hence, when people talk about kicking Russia off the SWIFT system, it's not just that the transaction cannot go out. It literally means in practice nobody can send a message with Russian banks. Like, there was no communication. So the entire dollar system is based upon the SWIFT system, which 90 percent of the messaging to process the transactions are using dollar. And then, because the expansive power of our U.S. banks, it literally means all international trade literally has to be settled—the settlement has to be done by U.S. bank, who has U.S. dollars. And in order to access that transaction mechanism, only SWIFT can get the job done. You also have to literally tap into either the Fedwire System or the CHIPS system, which is the clearinghouse system based here in New York. So in order for this whole system—in order to have this whole system to make your dollar payment work, you literally have to maintain on the one hand a connection, on the other hand have connections with the dollar settlement system. And that's why when Russia was kicked out of SWIFT, a lot of other countries who are not necessarily on the good side of the United States started to get worried because people used to think, well, kicking somebody—kicking some banks off the SWIFT system is almost the financial version of a nuclear bomb. It's the nuclear option of cutting somebody from the international financial system, of which the U.S. dollar is the dominant currency, the primary invoicing currency as well. And then on the other hand, lesson learned from this sanction experience, especially from the perspective of China, is that, well, previously we've already laid out a lot of this planning system—meaning the infrastructure used to internationalize the renminbi, such as the China—the China's CIPS system. Policymakers inside China started to wonder, well, since the planning is already there, it's not too much to ask just to add additional function. So the previously, from a functional-wise, China's renminbi payment infrastructure is really not about bypassing sanctions, because in my research I realized when—I interviewed people who actually participated in the designing of the system. And I remember talking to three people on three different occasions, and they all mentioned one point, which is without the CIPS system, the international using of renminbi, really—the user experience was really, really terrible. And the reason it was terrible was simply because there are more than two thousand of small and medium-size banks in China. You are familiar with the big four—ICBC, Bank of China and all that—but those are the major banks. More Chinese bank—more than two thousand of the smaller Chinese banks, they don't have a direct connection with the SWIFT system. Which basically means in order to make transactions across border, it really takes time and the cost of transactions are extremely high. Therefore, in order to improve user experience, they literally had to design a system that can facilitate this cross-border transaction. But when geopolitics plays into it, especially since 2018 when U.S.-China trade war started to get really escalated to a higher level, a lot of those conversations started domestically. And then Russia's invasion of Ukraine really accelerated this whole process. So I hope that sort of give you a broader—it's a long answer, but I hope that gives you a deeper understanding of what has been going on, and what are the—what are the instrument—the functions of the instrument. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. I'm going to take a written question from Abraham—he goes by Abe—Borum. Dr. Liu, you mentioned OPEC within the context of NATO and the U.S. efforts to limit Russia energy policy. What are the second- to third-order effects on other sectors of global markets? And Abe is a graduate student at the National Intelligence University. LIU: Abe, that's a great question, I have to say. And I would strongly encourage everybody here, especially our undergrad and graduate students—to think not just the first-order or direct impact, but also the second-order effect. So I appreciate this question, because then you give me a little bit opportunity to elaborate on why I think on the natural resource aspect our global economy is not necessarily heading towards the right direction. So just tie back into Abe's question to begin with, right now since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the hydrocarbon prices, and more specifically oil prices, oil prices have been increasing. Although in recent—in recent weeks, it has relatively been stabilized a little bit, but it's still way much higher than pre-pandemic, that would be 2019, right, Irina? 2019, right? (Laughs.) My timeline is all blurred. So I checked this morning, price might have changed slightly. But when I checked it this morning Brent today, this morning when I checked, it was trading about $88 per barrel. And remember in 2019 what the price was? That was something around—the average price in 2019, that was $64. So we are literally talking about more than $20 per barrel more expensive. And then WTI, that is, what, U.S. benchmark, right? WTI was trading at $96 per barrel – close to 96 (dollars). Like 95.99, something like that. And in 2019, Brent was trading on average $57 per barrel. So close to double. So higher energy prices, that basically would directly translate into higher production costs across the board for energy—because every sector need energy, whether it is electricity, whether it is other types of energy. So it directly translate into higher electricity prices. This is important for the United States. This is very relevant for the European Union as well. So higher production costs would literally raise the price of the output. And that is going to further exacerbate the inflationary pressure. And that is going to make the Federal Reserve, and the ECB, and the Bank of England measures to curb inflation even more difficult. And then on the other hand, I also wanted to mention that right now the added layer of geopolitics making this even more difficult. We already see this happening, which is, Biden made his trip to Saudi Arabia, but it did not get the intended consequence or intended result, which is trying to get Saudi Arabia and OPEC in general to stabilize the global oil market. And OPEC+, about a week ago, decided that they are going to cut their production by about two million barrels per day. That is about the daily consumption of, I believe it's China, or something like that. So from that perspective, by limiting production, that is going to further—that is from a pure supply/demand perspective, right? If we hold supply—we hold demand constant and if you reduce the supply, that is going to further raise the upward pressure for the prices. So geopolitics is probably going to further put upward pressure for the prices as well. And then finally, the final point I would want to make there is that right now OPEC countries—OPEC+ countries in particular—they might be—have this existential threat, which is the net zero transition. Right now, what is most valuable for Russia, or for Iran, for UAE, for Saudi Arabia—their most valuable export comes from hydrocarbon. It could be oil. It could be natural gas. So in the long run, when the entire global economy moved to zero dependence on hydrocarbon, that basically means for Russia—that's probably more close to 70 percent of their GDP and government revenue. That is going to be gone. Think about how the Russian economy can make up that much amount of revenue in the short run? That's very difficult to think about, especially these days. And this can be applied for countries like Saudi Arabia as well. Therefore, these countries—these hydrocarbon-exporting countries—they have this existential threat. Which is their most valuable export might become no longer valuable in the long run. So that's why they are—they are inherently very interested in carving a closer relationship and, more importantly, a relatively stable relationship with their stable buyers. And the buyers these days are going to not necessarily be the United States because, you've heard all these stories about the U.S. are energy independent and so on and so forth. But, you know, we can—that's a different story. And when people say U.S. is very largely energy independent, there are so many reasons that argument can be rebutted. But let me just say, U.S. does not necessarily consume a lot of energy from—exported by Saudi Arabia. But who does? China and India. So right now, China's largest energy—in terms of volume—largest energy supplier is Russia. But in terms of pure monetary value that China actually pays, and the largest receiver of Chinese money for energy, that is Saudi Arabia. Therefore, earlier this year you probably read the news about Saudi Arabia might consider allowing renminbi to pay for Saudi oil. There might be more opportunity in there, because they might be very interested, especially MBS, because of all his behaviors, might expose a lot of the Saudis individuals under U.S. sanctions. And on the other hand, China already established a renminbi denominated oil futures market. And that—although, the volume today is relatively—the volume today is relatively low, but the growth is very rapidly. So if all these major oil-exporting countries hypothetically—if they decided to suddenly switch their—the pricing of their oil overnight into renminbi instead of the dollar, we could potentially see the dollar's pricing power and invoicing power in global trade would be diminished. And that is because the infrastructure, the facility is already there. Although the volume of renminbi-denominated oil futures is still relatively low, the plumbing is there. And once you have the plumbing there, there is no way to go back. So now what the United States should do is to make sure that everybody is still very much interested in maintaining the existing dollar-based system and maintaining the pricing of commodity using U.S. dollar. And that brings in the discussion about putting an oil price to Russian oil instead of just a wholesale sanction of Russian oil. As long as we are putting a price cap to it, that basically means we are—yes, we are hurting Russian export, but still we are allowing Russian oil flowing into the international market. That still makes the dollar's pricing power in global commodities relevant. So from that perspective, I think it's the right move to preserve the dollar system. But on the other hand, those countries that are not—again, not necessarily on the geopolitical good side of the United States, they do have the intention to hedge against the risk of being sanctioned. And they need the—they need buyers to buy whatever that they have are valuable today. I hope that makes sense to you. FASKIANOS: Great. Thank you. I'm going to take the next question, a spoken question, from Dr. Seebal Aboudounya, an associate lecturer at the University of College London. You can correct me on the pronunciation of your name. Q: Yes. Hi. The pronunciation is perfect. Thank you very much. So I have two students here from the international public policy program. And they would like to ask questions. So I will just hand over to them. Thank you. Q: Hi, professor. I'm Cici and I'm a graduate student from UCL. I'm really glad you can give me a speech and answer my questions. And I want to ask questions about Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As we all know, that Belt and Road Initiative has employment more than ten years, since 2013. And it seems as the most important foreign policy for China and their President Xi. And it has already achieved many success. So I want to ask, what's the core purpose of Belt and Road Initiative, and how can we evaluate it? And do the countries in BRI view it in a positive or a negative way? Thank you. Q: Thank you very much. And the second student will now ask a question. Q: Hi, Doctor. My question is, what's the future of global economy under the impact of Ukraine war, China-U.S. competition, and COVID-19? Thank you. Q: Thank you very much. LIU: All right. Thank you very much, Professor Aboudounya. And let me just being with the first question from Cici, right? Thank you very much, Cici, for asking this important question. And I'm so glad that you are asking something about BRI, because I do think it's important for people to understand this whole Chinese initiative. You are absolutely right that the BRI is a very important Chinese foreign policy initiative. And I would even say that the BRI is—or, the Belt and Road Initiative—is Chinese President Xi Jinping, his signature foreign policy initiative during his first two terms. Now he just recently got his—as the general secretary of the party—he just got this third term. So we'll see how BRI being played out going forward. But at least during his first term as the president of China and as the party general of the Chinese Communist Party, that was his signature foreign policy initiative, or grand strategy, if you will. So in terms of what it is and how we think about it, those are great questions. So there are very simple answer to say—to describe what BRI is. You can think about it as a global-spanning infrastructure project. So that's what it looks like. If you just put—if you just—if we have an Excel spreadsheet and we just look at, at least all the—every single project that BRI has been doing, it's really about infrastructure. And more specifically, more than 70 percent of BRI infrastructure projects are related to energy, are energy-related infrastructure projects. Therefore, you can also think about BRI as infrastructure orientated and combined with the idea of establishing China's access to global energy resources. And then, if you think about it from China's domestic perspective, why Xi Jinping decided to start this BRI initiative and what are the connections of the BRI with previous Chinese policies? I would say the reason—fundamental reason why Xi Jinping started this BRI was because of the fundamental domestic problem which is the overcapacity in China's production sector, especially steel, concrete, and a lot of these infrastructure-related sectors. And that takes place after global financial crisis, and then China's spending four trillion—four trillion yuan to stimulate its economy, and it created the major overcapacity issue at home. And the international economy—or international demand or demand from outside of China was not enough—or especially the Western market like United States or European market, they were not growing as fast to be able to absorb China's overcapacity. Therefore China really have to think about how to distribute in a broader global market to solve its overcapacity issue. So Xi Jinping, in one of his meetings, he had this saying—and I think it's very revealing, so I quote him. So he did say this, and I translate it, obviously, into English. So he said: Our overcapacity problem might be other countries—might be beneficial to other countries. In other word, we are producing a lot of this stuff that we do not use, and we are losing money. But if we are able to sell it to other countries, that might be good for them and good for us, as well. So that was—could we—if we give him the benefit of the doubt, is that a good way—is that a good intent? Sure. If we give him the benefit of the doubt, if everything he implemented perfectly, that could be mutually beneficial. And indeed, if you look at all these BRI forums or BRI summit, a lot of these are related to improve their connectedness, solve overcapacity issue, and even BR specific government-to-government level industrial production coordination fund. In other word, if government are establishing lots of money to coordinate—so much you are going to produce, how much I am supposed to produce. The idea is really to tackle the problem of overcapacity. But again, reality when you are looking at how this is being implemented, nowadays it varies. There's a very good Rhodium Group report that you probably—if you just google Rhodium Group BRI, they have this report analyzing the BRI lending. And that's where BRI really come into—really encountered a lot of problem. So you are probably familiar with the whole narrative of the data trap, so depending upon who you are talking to—so if you talk with—if you talk to Chinese project managers, or if you talk to Professor Deborah Bräutigam at SAIS/Johns Hopkins who runs the China Africa Research Initiative—if you talk to folks like them, they might tell you, well, you know, it's really not about the data trap but really speaks to the fact that China is really, really inexperienced in terms of the development finance and in terms of lending, and that the reason is that they really have a limited capacity to do, on the one hand, the environmental impact assessment. Many of these—you will be shocked. Many of these projects they do not even have a real environmental impact assessment. And on the other hand, because a lot of these lendings are directly being lent out by Chinese policy banks—and more specifically, if you look at Africa, that would be China import and export bank, they have a limited capacity to evaluate all these business plans. And I remember talking to a project manager in Mali, so I asked him, have you interacted with all those folks on how you do your—how you do your bidding in order to get the money. So this person, he was very frank with me, and he said, well, I understand how the—I understand how they want the number to look like in order to give me the loan, so I just cook the numbers so that I can get the loan. In other word, there is not necessarily an internally robust risk management process in getting out of these loans. Therefore, am I surprised to see that so much of Chinese—so much of China's BRI loan now are in trouble, like in countries like Zambia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and a couple of others.   So am I—am I surprised about that? I'm not surprised because if you followed this and if you realized that there is a lack of the internal risk management process, that's the result you are going to get. And it is also because of the debt, combined with the contract term, which is when you are signing a contract like—it's like, I go to the bank and I say, I am Zoe, and I bank with Charles Schwab or Bank of America. Hey, I'm going to buy a house, so how about you lend me the money. This is literally the way how contract negotiating works. And then, guess what? The banks are going to say, hey, Zoe, I do not know who you are, although you look like a good person. I do not want to lend you the money at this rate. I'm going to lend you the money, and you have to put down a collateral. So collateral is the idea that, in case I, Zoe, can no longer pay back my loan, I literally have to give up some sort of tangible asset to the bank. Now in the case of Sri Lanka, that was what happened to Hambantota. So long story short, is that combined with the collateralization of this BRI debt really feeds this debt trap narrative because, well, if it looks like you are setting the countries up to debt, and you are collateralizing their critical infrastructures, this looks like debt trap to many observers. So I can't—I have a lot of sympathy to this debt trap narrative, but really, when we think about BRI debt and how BRI is being implemented, we really need to think about two sides: on the one hand, the policy side; and the other side is really about implementation, because without implementation the policies are only a piece of paper, isn't it? So, I really encourage you to look more specifically into the details, and if you are interested in learning more about BRI, there are a lot of data set that are available. On the one hand, William & Mary—William & Mary have the aid data. If you just google William & Mary and google aid data, you will see their entire data related to BRI. And then the other website that—I would have to say, my colleague and I here at the Council, we have this BRI tracker. My colleague Benn Steil, he run—he had this BRI tracker. So you can take a look at that. And then the Council also published a BRI report last year—last year, right, Irina? We have a BRI Task Force report, so definitely check that out. And then finally there is also Boston University has the global policy institute. They have this China—they have a specific China-oriented research team, and they have—they also run seminars occasionally, and webinars—you can sign up for it and you can have access to their research. We also have this BRI data, so make sure that you check those out so that you can look at all the contract, you can look at what are the—where exactly—at what level project are being implemented. I hope that sort of covered the ground for that with BRI. And then go back to the other question—the other question about the future of global economy, especially the impact on Ukraine. I really appreciate this question as well because it's—it's really dear to my heart, too, and the research in itself is dear to my heart and to many of my colleagues here at the Council. And then, on the other hand, we also—everybody are surprised about how fast and how coherent the sanctions on Russia were able to take place. It used to be like—I myself included—like when the Europeans decided—the European Union decided, basically the next day after—following the U.S. sanctions, they basically decided that they are going to do the same. I was like, oh, gee, looking across the Atlantic, I don't think I understand you guys. It almost feel like you guys could never agree on anything anytime soon, but now, it's like overnight there is this agreement on sanction of Russia. I feel like, oh, this is unprecedented. So from that perspective, I do think the—Russia's war on Ukraine, it reunited the U.S. alliance system, and from economic perspective, I think it's very important in the sense that a lot of the economic differences that we used to have—for example, the Eurozone or, in particular, the ECB might have interest in letting the euro play a bigger role in the global system and all that. So a lot of these are—a lot of these disagreement are going to be surpassed by the priority, which is to address Russia's aggression in Ukraine. And then on the other hand, we are also seeing that, yes, European Union, despite of their heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas—and Russian gas in particular, they are willing to participate in setting a deadline to say by this—by the end of this year we are going to phase out Russia's—our dependence on Russian energy. And in that context, it is good for American energy industry in the sense that we can—here in the United States we can—in the context of making sure that our domestic energy security is secured, right, or we can't export our LNG to our—to meet the need of our European allies. So that is another good aspect of it, and then in terms of—and then finally, I would—along the line of energy I would also say this probably is also going to accelerate the transition to net zero in terms of technology and putting more resources into this technology related to energy transition. That might be related to hydrogen. Canada is already exporting its hydrogen energy to Germany and German trains are now—some German trains are now run on hydrogen power. It would be cool to check it out—how it looks, right? So that means, from energy perspective at least we are seeing the realignment of this energy supply, energy demand dynamic. And because energy is so important for production and for energy growth, that is sort of a stabilizing factor. But that being said, still we are not—I am not saying that the Europeans aren't going to—are no longer having problems. And the Europeans are still going to have problems and the IMF revised downward European growth prospect next year. They downgraded to—even further to a lower point. I believe it's point—it used to be—it used to be about 1.3 in the energy outlook earlier in July, but I think this time—a few days ago when I checked again, there are new economic outlook. They've revised it down for EU—European advanced economies that it was revised down to .06 percent growth. From that perspective combined with high inflation, literally we are seeing that Europe—the advanced European economies—or broadly speaking, Eurozone as a whole—probably are going to head towards, maybe recession is a very, very harsh word, but it definitely going to run into serious economic troubles. So in the long run, this is not a good—this is not good looking. And in the short run, at least, this is not good looking, right, and in the—if we broaden the horizon back, focusing on the economy. Another factor that constrained European growth are, in particular, let's say, the major powerhouses like Germany. A critical part of that is, they are suffering from two issues. One is their cost of electricity is simply too high, and I'm talking about this relative to—it's much higher than the United States for sure, but they are not—they are much higher than China, as well. So China energy per kilowatt is in the magnitude of 0.002 or 0.003 magnitude. And where is Germany? Germany is something like ten times of that. We are talking about .38 per kilowatt. So that basically means if your fundamental electricity cost is high, and when energy price goes up higher, electricity price is also going to go up high, and then your entire manufacture industry is going to face a higher cost. And that, combined with demographic challenges, refugee challenges, it simply means that the government are going to have a whole lot of difficult time to deal with their expenditures. So again, both from energy perspective, from cost-of-production perspective, from the demographic perspective—aging population, refugee problem—and on top of that you probably would also have to think of—take care of the aging population, meaning added social welfare costs and pension costs, so those are—those mean slowing economy, especially on advanced economies, are not necessarily looking nice. FASKIANOS: Thank you. I'm going to go next to Isaac Alston-Voyticky, who has written a question but also said, happy to ask it, so why don't you unmute yourself, please, and give us your affiliation. Q: Hello, my name is Isaac Alston-Voyticky. I am at CUNY School of Law and CCNY's Colin Powell School. I am actually graduating this semester, so—(laughs)—anyway, so my question is you posed the three classic core components of economics. Would you think in the modern day, given the immaterial nature of so much of our global market and marketplace, that knowledge as the foundation of neoclassical economics, plays an equal role as a component of modern economics? And I mean that obviously in the concept that knowledge is known, unknown, real, surreal, and unreal, of course. But also, to your first kind of opening point when you said that, you know, it's really hard for economists to model out and do predictions. When we talk about improving data sets and analysis across like IPE, international affairs, you know, implementation of international law, one of the issues we have is a lot of our economic models are still too variable-based, and that we haven't really gone past that. So if we think about it from the quantum computing, we have X, Y, Z, and T, and that's just your bare, you know, next level. And I would imagine we can do that if we find the right components so, hopefully—and, I mean, I don't know what kind of answer you have, but I'm very interested to hear. LIU: Yeah, Isaac, first of all, congratulations for getting—you are in CUNY, right? And so you are right here in the neighborhood, so you know—right? So feel free to—feel free to, on the one hand definitely check out our award-winning website, and then if me or our colleagues could be of help, just feel free to stop by. And so these are two great questions obviously, and you touch upon a lot of the complaints and the frustrations that I have with modeling—(laughs)—right? So the first question, knowledge, I fully agree with you that so far our economic models have not been able to fully appreciate, or fully absorb, or fully model the role of knowledge; for that matter, even finance. Finance, at least has this term called the intangible asset when you are evaluating a firm, and therefore your mergers and acquisitions, you pay the so-called goodwill based upon how much you value the intangible asset; meaning like knowledge, expertise, and so on, so forth—so patent and all that. So from that perspective, I think the knowledge is definitely going—knowledge is definitely going to be extremely more important going forward, and I say that both—from three aspects. The first is knowledge can improve the quality of your human resources, which touch upon basically the labor force which reverts back to one of our three factors of production. And then knowledge also is necessary for technology, and that is another factor of production. And then finally the other would be knowledge, technology, and other resources. So resources, there is capital and non-capital, meaning natural resource and all that. And there are—then the confounding factor of knowledge is being played more here because better financial expertise—well, obviously, depending upon how you use it, but sometimes, financial expertise tend to run itself in trouble. It outsmart itself; it's not necessarily good. But if we are able to—if we have better knowledge about financial market, about our debt—I go back to your second question—better data about financial market and better knowledge to improve our use of natural resources or the efficiency—improve the efficiency. Or the next day, if we all have a battery and move toward renewables—these are going to be extremely—go back to the Schumacher model—these are going to be extremely disruptive, but in a very good way. But the reason I am cautious about, you know, we may not necessarily going there overnight is because, on the one hand—technology R&D takes some time, it's expensive, but then on the other hand, it's just in the processing, the implementation part. It's really—a lot of geopolitical factors plays into it because when we think about knowledge, knowledge and the technology, those are the things that we tend to think they tend to diffuse themselves, like knowledge—you exchange knowledge, and that's the foundation of new knowledge being created. You stand on the giant's shoulders, right? Knowledge and technology tend to diffuse itself, and right now what we are observing is, on the one hand, there are a lot of—there are a lot of export controls towards certain countries, and then on the other hand, countries like China are also—are trying very hard to lower the cost of the relatively cheaper technology, right, or the less advanced technology. And that basically means if a country can or—especially a country like China can quickly achieve economies of the scale, are able to find an alternative that is cheaper but at a lesser technology, but will still get the job done, then probably that—in the short term, it can service China and also service a lot of developing economies. But for a country like China, that is not necessarily good in the long run. And then on top of that, because of export controls, because of a lot of geopolitical tensions between China and the rest of the world, but the long-run trajectory over China's indigenous development capacity is still there; China's people—there are still U.S.-trained Chinese scientists going back to China, but it is going to tremendously slow China down and making it very difficult and very costly. So if we think that, for the past forty years or so—or for the past twenty years since China joined WTO, if we believe that cheap Chinese goods tend to be—tend to benefited the rest of the world in many ways, then a slowed-down Chinese economy is bad news for the global economy, probably more true than not. China is the largest trading partner for more than 120 countries in the world, so if Chinese economy slow down, that have major ramifications for the rest. And then go back to your second question with regard to, you improve the database and in terms of modeling the limitations—that's a frustration that I have nowadays. Yes, the model themselves—oftentimes I go into a meeting, listen to a talk—especially in the econ papers, the econ paper would begin with—it's very sterilized. You begin with assumptions, and then you talk about your independent variables, your dependent variables. Right now we are really in a world where your independent variables can be—your independent variables might be suddenly changed because of geopolitics, or because of some disruptive technology, or simply because supply chain means you used to be able to get rare earth, but then if you are Japan in 2007, you were no longer able to get rare earth reliably from China. So those are going to significantly shift your calculation. Therefore I would say, I really don't have a good answer in terms of how to improve at researcher perspective, but hopefully, as you said, quantum computing, artificial intelligence might help us to get as much better information as possible. But that being said, quantum—a lot of these quantum computing and artificial intelligence is—it used to be the case that a lot of statistics are garbage in, garbage out. Hopefully, our AI and the quantum computing, as we train themselves, they can learn better than the human beings. I'm not exactly comfortable about saying that, but that's my hope. FASKIANOS: I have some—a written question from Todd Barry, adjunct professor at Hudson County Community College in New Jersey. Is it possible that China would turn inwards and switch an economy to import substitution industrialization, producing all goods domestically, without imports, like Latin America tried to in the 1970's? LIU: Right, that's a great question, and when you were asking that I was immediately thinking about the Chile and its car industry. And that was a disaster. The East Asian model, in terms of the import substitution—that's the East Asian miracle, especially applicable to, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea to a certain extent, as well. In the case of China I would say I would be really hesitant to—in retrospect if we have this conversation twenty years down the road, I would be really, really—I would be really sad to realize that this year is the moment—or October is the—October 2022 is the moment when China started to turn inward because that is going to be disastrous for China's long-term growth. China's decade-long of double-digit growth benefitted from an open economy, benefitted from being able to trade with the rest of the world, and the United States actually welcomed China into the global system. Therefore I would be very, very sad to see this is the moment. Now is there a—is there the risk? I do see the risk, and I do see the narrative there, especially with President Xi Jinping's emphasis on domestic circulation. If you think—I would argue—in my latest publication with the CFR.org, I made this argument to say the important—the dual circulation, especially the domestic circulation, it is a departure from previous going-on strategy because going out is starting from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao. These are really the idea of prioritizing the international market. It's really about using international market to develop the Chinese economy. And dual circulation is a departure from that. It's not to totally abandon globally—the global market, but it really is—it prioritizes domestic market: domestic demand, domestic supply, domestic technology and—domestic technological innovation capacity, and making international market relatively supplementary. And if even—and Xi Jinping even—if Xi Jinping even intend to make the international market more dependent on China's domestic market, meaning making the rest dependent more on China. So there is the narrative there. However, in practice, I don't—I don't see how Chinese companies are able to do this because the Chinese company—a lot of Chinese companies, especially multinational Chinese companies, they still need to have access to global capital, global technology. And although it becomes—especially on the technology side has become increasingly difficult. But it is to the benefit of the Chinese company, Chinese people, and China's long-term growth potential to maintain an open economy. But there is the chance that might not happen, and if we think—if we do believe that Xi Jinping has a timeline with reference to Taiwan, then he—obviously, if there is a war breaking out, then obviously there will be consequences, and we can imagine Western sanctions, and that basically means the Chinese economy is going to be severely isolated from the global system. So from that perspective, right now a lot of these zero-COVID policies are very much—the way that I think about it is it could be interpreted as it's a drill, or it's a preparation to make sure that China is developing internal capacity to be able to absorb as much sanction shock as possible. But I don't think that—I do not think Xi Jinping is going to make up a decision and going to make a move to Taiwan, say, tomorrow. As long as we can kick the can down the road, I think that's good. FASKIANOS: Out of time, and I am sorry to say that we couldn't get to all the questions, but we appreciate it. Zoe did mention a few resources that our task force on the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as the Belt and Road tracker—we dropped the link in the chat, but we'll also send a follow-up note with links to some of those things. She also does a lot of writing on CFR.org In Briefs and articles, so you should go to CFR.org. And you can follow her on Twitter at @zongyuanzoeliu. So I encourage you all to do that. This has been a terrific hour, so thank you again, Zoe. We appreciate it. LIU: Thank you, Irina, for having me. And I really do appreciate this opportunity to engage with every participant here. If I did not get a chance to answer your questions, or if you have other questions, just feel free to reach out to Irina or feel free to reach out to me. We are here, and the Council really appreciate and the—really appreciate the colleges and student, and the Council actually—we do a lot of stuff related to education, you know—not just at a college level. We also do at high-school level— FASKIANOS: High school— LIU: —middle-school level, and even—we also even have games for kids. So if you haven't tried those out yet, just try it out. FASKIANOS: Thank you, Zoe. So our next academic webinar will be on Wednesday, November 9, at 1:00 p.m. (EST) with Lauren Kahn, who is here at the Council, on military innovation and U.S. defense strategy. And again, I just wanted to shout out. We have our CFR fellowships application deadline for educators is available. You can check it out at CFR.org/fellowships. The deadline is October 31 so it's right around the corner. Follow us at @CFR_Academic. And again, go to CFR.org, ForeignAffairs.com, and ThinkGlobalHealth.org. So thank you all for being with us. Have a great rest of your day. (END)

The Libertarian Christian Podcast
Ep 297: Speaking as a Comedian, with Lou Perez

The Libertarian Christian Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2022 44:01


In this episode, Doug Stuart chats with Lou Perez, speaking as a comedian, about his new book, That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore: On the Death and Rebirth of Comedy. Perez offers a "behind-the-scenes" of the creative journey for his new book, as well as experiences in the life of professional comedy - especially in today's highly charged and political climate. Lou Perez was the Head Writer and Producer of the Webby Award-winning comedy channel, We the Internet TV. During his tenure at WTI, he made the kind of comedy that gets you put on lists and your words in the Wall Street Journal: "How I Became a 'Far-Right Radical.'" In addition to producing sketch comedy, stand-up, and opinion writing, he's also host The Lou Perez Podcast. Perez details some of the back story to his book. He remarks about how his publisher gave him complete creative freedom to "write the book you want." Perez saw this is a unique opportunity to write about things important to him and the problems he saw brewing about community. He also commented about his experience in 2020 and 2021 when several big names in comedy passed away and the effect that had on him. Don't miss all this and more in our latest episode.   Main Points of Discussion: 00:00 Introduction 03:25 Perez's intrigue with the connection between anarchism and Christianity 05:54 What was the purpose of writing That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore 09:35 Creative, Editing, and Publication process 14:25 The mutual respect and community among fellow comedians. 17:26 What's it like to "bomb" a show? 20:40 What's going wrong with comedy today? 23:46 At what point do you old back from? (Dark humor) 32:51 Is Donald Trump funny? 34:45 Do your kids understand your humor? 36:53 What other things have you done besides stand up? 39:11 The fight you had on Twitter 42:30 Concluding Remarks   Resources Mentioned: Lou's website: https://www.thelouperez.com/ Lou's Wallstreet Journal Article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-i-became-a-far-right-radical-11609370135 Buy the Book! https://www.amazon.com/dp/1637582455

Primary Vision Network
EIA Update - What Another Biden SPR Release Means?, A Ban on Refined Product Exports is a Terrible Idea!, How Will OPEC Cuts Change Market Dynamics?

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2022 63:45


Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: US futures bid, but off best; DXY takes 112.50 & debt under modest pressure

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2022 3:35


Equities in Europe are mostly lower despite initial positive performance; US futures bid, but shy of best.European earnings include ASML & Nestle; NFLX +13% in pre-market following their after-hours updateFranc flounders as Dollar rebounds alongside bear-steepening in US Treasuries, USD/CHF probes parity as DXY tops 112.500.Gilts dented post-CPI which topped 10%, though clawed back losses to mid-97.00; broader complex pressured, though similarly off worst.WTI and Brent Dec futures are firmer intraday after yesterday's decline, which saw Brent dip under USD 90/bbl but settle at the figure.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI. Speeches from Fed's Bullard, Evans & Kashkari; BoE's Cunliffe & Mann; ECB's Centeno & Visco. Supply from the US. Earnings from Tesla, P&G, AbbottRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Gilts & GBP pressured as the BoE pushed back on the FT's QT delay report

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2022 3:28


Equity bourses in Europe trade with gains across the board but are off best levels; US futures are faring betterNZD leads after strong CPI while GBP lags as the BoE pushes back on QT delay reports, DXY firmer but off bestYen pares some losses from under 149.00 against the Dollar amidst some unsubstantiated talk of interventionOverall fixed complex is pressured, with Gilts lagging though Bunds are in close proximity and below 136.00 post poor 7yr-supply and ahead of ECB speak.WTI and Brent December contracts are softer on the session and gave up earlier gains as the DXY creeps higherLooking ahead, highlights include US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation, Speeches from Fed's Bostic, Kashkari & ECB's Schnabel. Earnings from Goldman Sachs, JNJ, LMT, Netflix, United Airlines, Interactive Brokers.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

E2B: Energy to Business
The Consequences Of Rising Inflation & Crude Oil Prices

E2B: Energy to Business

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2022 37:32


How have rising inflation and interest rates impacted the WTI crude oil market? Opportune's Commodity Risk Advisory Director, Ryan Dusek sits down with E2Bs Daniel J. Litwin to cover the situation, and discuss his recent article, The Feds Fight Against Inflation: Is WTI Crude Oil Recession Proof?For more podcasts from Opportune, visit https://opportune.com/insights/podcast.

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Risk recovers from APAC pressure, UK assets buoyed pre-Hunt

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2022 2:53


European bourses see a choppy session but have tilted towards the green after experiencing a mixed cash open.US equity futures see gains across the board following the steep losses on Friday - with the NQ and RTY narrowly outperforming.Gilts gap-up and lead the way ahead of a potential "mini-Budget" U-turn from new Chancellor Hunt, peers buoyed in turn.Pound perkier in turn with the DXY modestly pressured to the benefit of peers across the board.WTI and Brent futures trimmed earlier gains in downside that was exacerbated after reports China is to delay its Q3 GDP release.Looking ahead, UK Chancellor Hunt, ECB's Lane, BoC's RogersRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Primary Vision Network
EIA Update - Distillate Firmly in the Global Driver Seat, Heating Oil a Big Concern for This Winter, OPEC Adjusts Their Demand vs Supply Estimates

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2022 55:20


Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!Go here to get started! https://primaryvision.co/subscription-plan/

Inversiones y Trading
12.10.22 Wall Street al alza tras dichos de Biden. Hoy se reporta el IPP de EEUU

Inversiones y Trading

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2022 75:14


Destacados: Wall Street se encuentra operando al alza. Biden restó importancia a los riesgos de recesión. Intel está planeando una importante reducción de personal. Petróleo WTI sube +1.28% y cotiza en torno a los $89.70 dólares. https://inversionesytrading.com/principal/wall-street-biden-trae-calma/ Redes y Contacto Oficiales con Inversiones y Trading

Primary Vision Network
THE ECONOMY - IMF Reduces Growth Estimates & Yes- It Still Gets Worse, Volatility Moves Higher as Uncertainty Persists in Rates, More Red Flags for Consumer Spending, Rates are Pointing to Way More Pain Across the Continent, What to Expect from China&

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2022 76:32


Asia, China is the focus. It has been encountering serious economic issues putting the trajectory of global economic growth at risk. Mark does a really in-depth analysis of economic indicators coming out of India, Taiwan and China. He specially talks about China's social financing, loans and manufacturing. Not to mention China's real estate market that contributes almost 30 - 35 percent to its GDP.Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!

Morning Wealth
ตลาดโภคภัณฑ์ฟื้น? น้ำมันพุ่ง ชาติเอเชียแห่ซื้อทองคำ | 10 ตุลาคม 2565

Morning Wealth

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2022 63:35


สัปดาห์ที่ผ่านมา ราคาทองคำและน้ำมันดิบโลกฟื้นตัวกลับขึ้นมามากที่สุดนับแต่เดือนมีนาคม 2655 โดยราคาทองคำเพิ่มขึ้นราว 4% ขณะที่ราคาน้ำมันดิบ WTI เพิ่มขึ้นราว 11% นักวิเคราะห์ประเมินสถานการณ์นี้อย่างไร วิเคราะห์ทิศทางตลาดหุ้นและแนวโน้มราคาน้ำมันดิบ พูดคุยกับ สิทธิชัย ดวงรัตนฉายา ผู้อำนวยการอาวุโส ฝ่ายวิจัยการลงทุน บล.อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์ (InnovestX)

THE STANDARD Podcast
Morning Wealth | ตลาดโภคภัณฑ์ฟื้น? น้ำมันพุ่ง ชาติเอเชียแห่ซื้อทองคำ |10 ตุลาคม 2565

THE STANDARD Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2022 63:35


สัปดาห์ที่ผ่านมา ราคาทองคำและน้ำมันดิบโลกฟื้นตัวกลับขึ้นมามากที่สุดนับแต่เดือนมีนาคม 2655 โดยราคาทองคำเพิ่มขึ้นราว 4% ขณะที่ราคาน้ำมันดิบ WTI เพิ่มขึ้นราว 11% นักวิเคราะห์ประเมินสถานการณ์นี้อย่างไร วิเคราะห์ทิศทางตลาดหุ้นและแนวโน้มราคาน้ำมันดิบ พูดคุยกับ สิทธิชัย ดวงรัตนฉายา ผู้อำนวยการอาวุโส ฝ่ายวิจัยการลงทุน บล.อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์ (InnovestX)

The Options Insider Radio Network
TWIFO 321: Giving the Big Adios To Silver, Crude Oil, RUT, Soybeans and More

The Options Insider Radio Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2022 65:19


HOST: Mark Longo, The Options Insider Radio Network CME/FTSE RUSSELL HOT SEAT: Dan Gramza, Gramza Capital Management We discuss the movers and shakers in the futures options markets including energy (WTI), ags (lumber, soybeans), equities (Russell 2000), metals (silver), and much more.

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Tentative trade awaiting NFP and Fed speak for fresh 'pivot' guidance

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2022 2:57


European bourses are modestly on the backfoot, though have trimmed this slightly as the session progresses, in limited newsflow pre-NFP.Stateside, futures are similarly contained and lie either side of the unchanged mark with NQ -0.1% modestly lagging amid yield upsideTypically tense pre-NFP trade has seen the DXY briefly dip below 112.00, to a 111.94 low, before regathering itself and holding marginally above the figure.Core benchmarks dipped to lows amid the morning's German data release, with Import Prices lifting again, though have gained some poise since in quiet trade.WTI and Brent are off highs but still holding onto gains of around USD 0.50/bbl and are at the top-end of the week's USD 86.35/bbl – 95.00/bbl parameter in Brent Dec'22.Fed's Mester (2022/2024) and Waller (voter) spoke overnight and added to the pivot-pushbackLooking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian jobs reports, BoE's Ramsden, Fed's Williams, Kashkari, BosticRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Gandini Análisis: Finanzas Y Economía
El juego político del petróleo

Gandini Análisis: Finanzas Y Economía

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2022 8:06


En las ultimas sesiones de negociación el crudo ha reaccionado al alza con la referencia WTI marcando un precio alrededor de $87 dólares por barril y el Brent en $93, debido a la decisión del a OPEP+ de recortar 2 millones de barriles diarios a partir de noviembre. Esto pone de manifiesto la fuerza de las tensiones geopolíticas en las decisiones de los productores de crudo y por su puesto su impacto en el precio, por eso dedico este episodio a hablar al respecto.

This Week in Futures Options
TWIFO 321: Giving the Big Adios To Silver, Crude Oil, RUT, Soybeans and More

This Week in Futures Options

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2022 65:19


HOST: Mark Longo, The Options Insider Radio Network CME/FTSE RUSSELL HOT SEAT: Dan Gramza, Gramza Capital Management We discuss the movers and shakers in the futures options markets including energy (WTI), ags (lumber, soybeans), equities (Russell 2000), metals (silver), and much more.

TD Ameritrade Network
Any OPEC+ Production Cut Is Significant Globally

TD Ameritrade Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 12:47


WTI crude oil price is above $87 as OPEC+ considers production cuts for the first time since the pandemic. "Russia will be attending this meeting. Collectively OPEC+ brings in 30% to 40% of total oil production globally. Should Europe and the United States experience a recession, OPEC+ will need to decide how they will address energy demand," says Kurt Nelson.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Wednesday, 5-Oct

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 4:56


US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, opening weaker after the big Monday-Tuesday rally and then firming through the afternoon, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and the Nasdaq closing down 14 basis points, 20 basis points, and 25 basis points respectively. REITs and utilities came under pressure on the renewed rate backup. Energy stocks led on a good day for crude. Treasuries were weaker with some notable strength in the belly of the curve following the rate reprieve earlier this week. WTI crude settled up another 1.4%, and is now up more than 10% in the past three days following the big production-target cut by OPEC+. ISM services reading firmer than expected, ADP private payrolls increased 208K in September, largely in line with consensus, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 50 basis points as expected.

Primary Vision Network
EIA Update - OPEC+ Cuts Production- By How Much & What Does it Mean?, Gasoline Demand Spikes, But Will it Last?, How Will OPEC+ Cuts Adjust the Physical Market?

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 62:08


Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!Go here to get started! https://primaryvision.co/subscription-plan/

Primary Vision Network
Russia Special Update : Nord Stream Update + Ukraine Vote

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2022 21:18


In this special update Mark talks about the recent developments to Nord Stream. He also covers what is happening in the Ukraine around the referendum and future effects.Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!

Argus Media
The Crude Report: Soaring trade volume for WTI at the Gulf coast — harbinger of an emerging global crude benchmark

Argus Media

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2022 8:29


Trade volumes for US benchmark WTI have just hit record levels of nearly 790,000 b/d at the Magellan East Houston (MEH) pricing hub at the Gulf coast. Join Argus' deputy crude markets editor, Amanda Hilow, and VP of business development Jeff Kralowetz for a quick look at why WTI trade is setting records at the Gulf coast and what to expect in crude markets in the coming weeks. 

Primary Vision Network
EIA UPDATE - What Comes On the Back of Shoulder Season, How is Demand Holding Up?, Russia Flows Continue as China Boosts Exports

Primary Vision Network

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2022 70:40


It is very important to track Russian oil flows as we near the point where the oil embargo on the country goes into effect. So far, its exports are proving resilient. China's boost in exports is one reason. Asia on the whole, might see a drop in oil demand and it might affect Russian exports moving forward. Mark talks about these significant matters in this segment.Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
Euro Market Open: Sterling sinks in a flash crash with broader sentiment shaky echoing Friday's tone

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2022 4:41


APAC stocks traded mostly negative in a resumption of last week's global stock rout. European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.7% after the cash market closed down 2.3% on Friday.GBP/USD suffered a flash crash to 1.0327, DXY breached 114 to the upside, Italian election had little sway on EUR.Italy is on course to appoint a right-wing government led by the Brothers of Italy party; Meloni claimed leadership of the next government.Crude traded lower with an early attempt to nurse losses thwarted by resistance at USD 80/bbl for WTI.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, Speeches from Fed's Collins, Bostic & Mester, ECB's Lagarde, de Guindos & Panetta, BoE's Tenreyro, BoJ's Kuroda & Amamiya, Supply from the EU & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Subdued tone in holiday thinned conditions, DXY bid & bonds pressured

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2022 2:47


The subdued tone seen across a holiday-thinned APAC session reverberated into Europe; US futures are softerThe Dollar regrouped and regained a bid on a combination of technical and positional factors; DXY topped 110.00 but remains shy of Friday's bestBonds have extended to the downside, WTI and Brent futures have resumed the sell-off, and crypto markets remain pressuredUS President Biden said US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasionLooking ahead, highlights include UN General Assembly and UK Bank Holiday.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The PetroNerds Podcast
From Russia to US Shale, Q&A with DRW

The PetroNerds Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2022 55:42


Recorded on August 11, 2022 https://youtu.be/dsBETJtjcu4 Recorded on August 2, 2022 In episode 59 of the PetroNerds podcast, Trisha Curtis is joined by David Ramsden Wood. David hits Trisha with a series of rapid fire questions from the stock market, the Fed, inflation and interest rates, the global economy and macro environment to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resilience of US shale. They get into the energy transition and the breakdown taking place across the globe. They talk about Russia's pariah status and the linkages with China. They talk about the energy transition, energy security, and the stability of power sources like coal in the year 2022. August 2, 2022 - WTI $95.78, Brent $101.91, Henry Hub $7.89, Dutch TTf $.MMBtu $60, 30 Year Mortgage 5.05%, 10 Year Yield 2.71%