Podcasts about december fomc

We close out the first trading week of 2025 by reflecting on the December employment report, along with the minutes from the December FOMC meeting. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Major US equity indices were lower this week, weighed down by a big Wednesday slide that saw the S&P post its second-weakest day of the year. Wednesday's December FOMC meeting was the critical event of the week. Analysts had firmly expected the 25 bp rate cut it delivered and were looking for some signal the Fed could pause rate cuts in January, but ultimately takeaways felt the meeting was more hawkish than expected. The late week also brought heightened focus to the approaching government-funding deadline.

Markets are front-loading the effect of potential Trump policy changes in 2025, which will keep volatility elevated says Ben Emons, founder and outsourced chief investment officer of Fed Watch Advisors. Emons is joined by Bloomberg Intelligence's Ira Jersey, chief US rate strategist, and Will Hoffman, senior US and Canada rates strategy associate, to discuss the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the implications for markets in the year ahead. They discuss moves across domestic markets, including curve behavior and drivers in Treasuries, as well as the potential for additional volatility across global markets in 2025. The trio also hits on cross-currency hedging costs and direction, as well as technical adjustments to Fed policy, as it attempts to alleviate some stress in funding markets.

The S&P 500 booked its 54th record closing high overnight, up 0.24%, while the NASDAQ rose nearly 1% led by gains in mega-cap tech stocks. Microsoft +1.8%, Meta +3.2% and Alphabet +1.5%. The Dow lost 129 points (-0.29%). Up 91 points at best. Down 200 points at worst. Small caps Russell 2000 ended just below flatline and Wall Street's “fear gauge” the VIX dipped 0.67%. In economics, US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 in November beating expectations of 47.5, indicating a softer contraction in the manufacturing sector. In Fed speak, Bostic's commentary was uncertain, stating price stability and employment were broadly healthy, but continued positive data was not assured. Waller is leaning towards a rate cut in December given current data but reiterated that the Fed could consider holding rates steady to collect more inflation. Treasury yields were little changed, while the USD Index gained 0.60% and the Aussie dollar dropped 0.58%. December FOMC meeting is 15 days away with the odds of a 25bps cut at 74.5% rising from 66% in the previous session, according to the CME FedWatch tool.ASX SPI up 62 - ZIP Chair Resigns - CKF DowngradesWhy not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence. Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community.

In this week's episode, we delve into key economic data releases and major central bank meetings that lie ahead. Recently, the USD has demonstrated notable strength, rallying across all G10 currencies. The driving force behind this surge? Markets adjusting expectations as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March dips below 50%, marking the first time since the December FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and robust US economic data, including encouraging December retail sales and a formidable fourth-quarter GDP report, play a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics. Surprisingly, despite hawkish communications from the Bank of Japan, the JPY lags behind, while the EUR and GBP manage to hold up relatively well, with the latter performing particularly well this year.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this episode, we discuss the minutes of the December FOMC minutes. The balance sheet discussion read dovishly, and portends an earlier end to QT than our baseline forecast. We discuss the implication for funding, rates, and MBS markets. Speakers Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy Nick Maciunas, Securitized Products Research Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The Federal Reserve minutes of the December FOMC meeting suggested rate cuts were self-congratulatory about the decline in US inflation (though this was only partly due to the Fed). They signaled rate cuts this year. They also signalled no rush to cut rates, and interestingly mentioned that activity may be stronger than reported. Economic indicators designed in the 1920s struggle to accurately measure modern ways of working in the 2020s.

Today, Jack talks about the minutes from the most recent December FOMC meeting and the lower-than-anticipated job openings for November. Topics discussed: The minutes from the most recent December FOMC meeting The lower-than-anticipated job opening for November Links mentioned in this episode: https://invstr.com/fomc-meeting-minutes/ https://invstr.com/labor-cooling/ https://invstr.com/january-04-watchlist-6/

Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Jack Fitzpatrick is in for Joe. Jack speaks with: Former Director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council Hagar Chemali about tensions in the Middle East. Bloomberg Politics Contributor Jeanne Sheehan Zaino and Rick Davis as House Republicans visit the US-Mexico border in Texas. Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong about minutes from the December FOMC meeting. Gente Unida Executive Director Enrique Morones about the humanitarian situation at the US-Mexico border. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve has put a little joy into the hearts of homebuyers this Holiday season. The December FOMC meeting closed with no rate hike, and instead hints of rate cuts next year. That drove the stock market up, with bond yields and mortgage rates coming down... ...And if you want even lower rates, the San Antonio and Jacksonville property teams listed on the Real Wealth website offer investor loans under 5%. Check it out at newsforinvestors.com. And if you want to better understand why home prices went up in 2023 in spite of rates reaching nearly 8%, check out my 2023 Housing in Review webinar under the Learn tab at newsforinvestors.com. You can read more about what the Fed is doing with rates and the impact on the housing market by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. I also encourage you to sign up for a free membership at RealWealth if you want to know more about how you can invest in real estate. It only takes a few minutes to sign up and will give you access to our housing market data, hundreds of webinars, a long list of recommended real estate professionals including our experienced investment counselors, and other individual investors like yourself!   Also, please remember to subscribe to this podcast, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.housingwire.com/articles/what-fed-rate-cuts-in-2024-will-mean-for-homebuyers/#:~:text=Expect%20lower%20mortgage%20rates&text=%E2%80%9CThe%20commentary%20about%20three%20expected,to%20fall%20faster%20throughout%202024.   2 - https://www.housingwire.com/articles/a-sub-7-mortgage-rate-brings-holiday-cheer/?utm_campaign=Newsletter%20-%20HousingWire%20Daily&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=286605320&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--FZgqJL79wRXEPZnADaFjRLw88Up8yFwiMcYWKDVQ_g2ms9TGufl6nDuARn7ByZAEgJ8NZrziI_p37W0SeGBlKb204eA&utm_content=286605320&utm_source=hs_email   3 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-surprises-with-a-dovish-turn-economists-debate-how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2024-7fe36a65?mod=economy-politics

In our final episode of 2023, Jason outlines his prediction for the 2024 ‘financial word of the year'. We also reflect on the 2023 word prediction, ‘disinflation', as well as recap the December FOMC meeting, and explain CIO's rationale for an allocation to US small-cap equities. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US futures are pointing to a higher open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened in the negative territory, following lower levels in Asian markets. Expectations of Fed rate cuts next year surged following dovish December FOMC decision that saw median 2024 dot revised to imply 75bps of easing. Futures pricing in around six rate cuts in 2024, but some debate over whether market rally has room to run amid risk of slower-than-expected pivot.Companies Mentioned: Visa, IBM, Software AG, Activision Blizzard, JPMorgan Chase

US futures are pointing to a somewhat flat open as of 04:45 ET. European equity markets are higher, following mixed trading in the Asian session. We have the December FOMC meeting wrapping up today with Chair Powell's press conference. Fed Fund Futures still point to around 100 bps in rate cuts next year, but some commentators said the Fed could yet indicate higher rates than the market is currently pricing. The confusing picture of 'Market versus Fed' led to a cautious day in Asia equity trading.Companies Mentioned: Carlyle Group, Vertex, Pagero

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, marks to market the price-action since our last podcast in late November as well as how markets are setup ahead of a key week for central banks. With markets getting ready to closing out another year, how the FOMC event is received will likely set the stage if the risk-on continues into year-end or not. We expect the Fed to push-back on the recent easing of financial conditions and avoid saying anything that might come across as under-writing rate cuts, something that the market is pricing in spades for 2024. With a recent goldilocks jobs report and a slightly higher than expected CPI print, especially with a higher super-core reading (one of chair Powell's preferred inflation metrics), we do not believe that the Fed will convey a dovish message at the last FOMC meeting of 2023. Lastly, George gives us a glimpse into the themes and framework the team is using in order to setup for the 2024 macro world.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Nr4A93 A consistently positive trading day on this inflation-day-Tuesday. Both core and headline CPI came out largely in line with expectations and markets were constructive with stocks modestly higher and built on gains into the close and rates down just a few basis points. These numbers are coming out right in time for the December FOMC meeting to end tomorrow with a rate decision (which is at a 100% chance for a continued pause), Fed statement update and Powell presser following. Continued broadening out in markets with more non mega cap technology names participating. Yesterday by the way, was the first time in over 10 years we had markets up broadly (including a positive Nasdaq) with all seven of the largest technology names (aka Magnificent Seven) all closing lower. Today we had more participation those names, but worth noting the subtle shift in leadership, particularly with Industrials. A positive dynamic we have spoken about for years but particularly post the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues to play out in energy markets. For the month of November, 68% of all US LNG exports were sent to Europe which has now over taken Asia as the number one destination for US LNG exports. Just as tensions between US/China has begun to permanently shift supply chain manufacturing destinations globally, the EU shifting its reliance on Russia for its energy and heating needs isn't likely to be temporary and is quite positive for the US energy dynamic. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics, and Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, discuss the softer-than-expected October US jobs report. Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner and Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Technology Senior Analyst, recap Apple's sluggish 3Q earnings report. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, discusses the rift in Washington over government spending and aid to Israel.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance      FULL TRANSCRIPT:     This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. What you need on Jobs Day more Newtonian calculus. We'll do that with Randall Krosner of the Bus School, Chicago, of course, the former Fed governor, one of our great and giant financial economists in America. What's the second derivative of the jobs market look like? Randy? When it moves? Does it move? Ah? And that's the key question exactly what you were talking about. What does this pretend for the trajectory going forward? Certainly we're seeing a slowing pace over the last few months downward revisions. And then the question is will this be nice and smooth or will this pretend something that is going to be As at LISTA mentioned before, nonlinear, very difficult to predict any nonlinear moves and things. But I do think it's consistent with a somewhat softening labor market. I think the FED will certainly be heartened by the wage growth coming down a bit over time. I think this takes the wind of the sales of those who wanted to go further. I think it makes it much more likely that we will just hold where we are for a while. But so far, there's nothing in this to suggest that the FED is going to be eager to cut or be even talking about cutting anytime soon. Do you think, Randy is some people are pointing to manufacturing as a point of weakness, that that is a leading indicator in the way it has been in previous times, just because of how many people were hired during the peak of the pandemic. It is certainly one area that there was a lot of bounce back, because of course people want to things, but now people want services, and so the services part is still extremely important. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on any one particular sector. I think you have to look over overall, and as Mike had said, you know, we're seeing a little bit of slow down broadly, but not enormous amount of slow down. But I do think that is consistent with in somestance where the FED wants to go. They want to see the uneployment rate go up a little bit, not too much. They want to see wage growth come down a little bit, but not too much. And I think it's just going to be tougher to be hiring people going forward. Until just a few months ago, real wages were not growing, they were actually negative. Real wage growth was negative. Now real wage growth is positive, so it gives less of an incentive for firms to hire. Real interest rates are now positive. They had been negative for a very long time. That combination is probably going to lead firms to be less eager to hire, less eager to invest, and I think that's going to be leading to what I think is potentially a hard ish but not hard landing. This is an important jobs report. This November report of the October data just absolutely extraordinary. Randy Krasner, thank you so much, Professor Krasner with the Boost School the University of Chicago. If you're not part of the global Wall Street gang, you've got to understand it's hard to look at the Bloomberg screen and frame it out from where we were two weeks ago, which gets us to canes and when the facts change, I change. Jeffrey Rosenberg studied as Maynard Keynes at Carnegie Mellon. He's a black Rock portfolio manager systematic multi strategy fund for all of us. Jeff Rosenberg, are the facts changing? Great question, Tom. You know, the narrative is changing and the facts are driving that. And so Lisa asked the kind of the key question, You know, how do you rally in front of a slowing labor picture? And that's because it's where we are. Equity markets were weaker while the economy was strengthening, and that was really about the rise in the denominator, in the discount rate and the interest rates. So as you ease off the pressure in terms of the interest rates, there's a little window here where the narrative changes and there's relief because the discount raid is expected to be a bit lower, and you see it in the bond market. But that's about horizon and so the near term horizon narrative will shift, but the longer term horizon about that hardish landing that Randy just mentioned. That'll be for future conversations. Right now, the market's pretty excited about lower discount way, Jeff Rosenberg, people would say, Blackrock is part of that wall of money that's out there. Okay, we got a short cover here, a short cover there, I got futures up eighteen. Rosenberg knows the numbers better than me. Are we underestimating Jeff Rosenberg? How many people here are off sides and need to get in and play? Now? Yeah, you know we talked about this after the FMC. You know, the near term volatility is all about technicals and positioning, and so you're going to have that and you're going to see you're going to see those moves. The longer term positioning is going to be about trajectory and fundamentals. But certainly, you know, after a report that you know pretty much convincingly across the board, as you highlighted earlier, you know, this is a report that helps to support the narrative of slowing in the labor markets, slowing in wage inflation, even though that's a mixed shift probably in the AH number, but across the board, especially with the revisions, you know, it just looks like this is coming in slower, and so that helps to feed the near term narrative that you get to the soft landing. You know, as Randy said, whether it's soft landing or hardish landing or hard landing will remain to be seen. When do you go with groupthink and when do you push back? Right? I mean, when do you go with the crowd if sentiment is shifting and you're seeing people go into risk, if you believe that essentially bad news will be bad news for risk acts. Yeah, you know, it's a lot about kind of what's in the looking at what's in the price, and how much cushion you have against the consensus move and where the asymmetries lie. So I think right now the momentum and the sentiment around soft landing is going to be pretty hard to push back against. But you know, as we see successive waves of data, we got a couple more here in terms of before we get to the December FOMC, there's going to be a little bit of momentum here around the easing off of financial conditions, the easing off of tightening from the FED, and I think that's going to provide a little bit of a tailwind for a short horizon trap. And definitely the momentum tends to overshoot, and there is this feeling that this does set the market up for more fragility heading into a print that could be a big surprise on the downside. Jeff, how much is that sort of the play right now is to lean into the momentum, go at the flow, soft landing. Sure you can celebrate, but the music will stop eventually, and each one of these economics prints are going to have that much more heft and importance in markets. Yeah, and you know, the main issue here is really about long and variable lags. And Tom, I know you hate when every time I say that, but it is where do you see that pressure coming in? Randy talked about the pressure in terms of easing off of hiring because real wages are no longer negative, it's more expensive. You talked about funding costs, and maybe there's a little bit of an opening up in terms of the bond market, but I think you got to remember here, these are much more expensive funding costs. And so if you don't have to issue that debt because you've termed it out, you don't want to issue that debt. And so even though the market may be open, it's at a much higher cost. And that lagged effect of tightening in terms of interest expenses something you know, the market is still going to have to figure out where are the vulnerabilities, and there are vulnerabilities to that impact on Bloomberg Television and radio. Jeffrey Rosenberg with us is Blackrack really timely, and of course we thank him forst fed work as well well. He's going to stay with us at right now, I can't do it to complete data check because Jeff Rosenberg is too important. But Lisa, there's some real nuances here. Futures up nineteen continue to advance down, futures up one thirty nine. Can I get to a VIXA fourteen, I'm not there yet fifteen point two six. As Bramba mentioned, folks a two year yield in thirteen basis points, we continue to see lower yields and a higher prices ten year in his stunning eleven basis points. And just you know, outside the box here, I got weaker dollar, I got euros through one oh seven. I've got yen dynamics, but euro yen. What does the Japanese institutions do this weekend? Off what Jeff Rosenberg says? Because I got euro yin one sixty point zero one. If they're not going to act now, Lisa, when are they going to act. That does raise a good question and Jeff to that point, does the move that we're seeing in the US a sigh of relief open up possible monetary disruption elsewhere hint hind Bank of Japan that could be disruptive on the other side. Yeah, I mean that's a big global story and one we've been talking about for a while waiting for. We got a little bit of it in terms of changing the definition of yield curve control, and there's an expectation that there's going to be more. And there's an incredible amount of fiscal stimulus coming out of Japan that is really going to push the BOJ even further. And so that's been a global impact. It's dampening term premium It's part of the term premium steepening story. You know, the refunding you know, certainly is pushed back on that and positioning you know, a bit off sides for that surprise somewhat surprise refunding. But really the big story there is going to be global term premium steepening and that's I think long term going to come back to the US. But near term this is going to be about softish landing and slowing of the Fed, and the market is going to run with that. We're looking right now at two year yields just tanking. I mean, honestly, this is quite a move fifteen bas points nearly from top to bottom in this trading session as people parse through this, Jeff just want to finish up with the Fed's reaction function, this concept of what it takes for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Right now, there is base into the markets in real time, a sense that they will be cutting rates in much sooner than they're saying. Do you think that's accurate that the bar to cut rates has somehow come in as a result of just the general feeling and the public and the lack of willingness to tolerate much higher on employment rates. Well, it's tricky, Lisa. I mean, I think the reaction you're getting right now pricing out the kind of probabilities, the limited probabilities of the last hike. Right. So, you know, you go back to Wednesday, and you know you remember the question, and you know you talked about we're not even you know, talking about cutting rate now. Obviously the market is because the market is looking forward here. I think you got to see a lot more development on the inflation side before you get there. And then the other the problem we're going to talk about, I think is the reflexivity. I think you mentioned it is that you know, well, we the FED could do less because the market's doing more. But the more the market does more in terms of using financial conditions, the more then the Fed has to do. So you kind of get yourself chasing your own tail around that story in terms of whether they can cut. So it will come back to does the inflation really fall fast enough to that two percent level that gets real interest rates high enough that gets them concerned that they're too tight where they really need to deliver those cuts, and that I think is still way out into the future. And Lisa, where do you get to show where jeff Rosenberg channels George Soros on reflexivity. I mean, there's nowhere else in the world you can have this much fun. Jeffrey Rosenberg, thank you so much for joining us. That's the way it works, folks. The street only focuses on revenue dynamics, and if they're brave, they go down the income statement and they'll find that and then it's what I call concept concept concept China, worry, worry, worry, yep iPhone worry where iPads omg and thank god. Gen Monster, with all of his work on Apple and technology, says, you know, maybe they're rock solid. Maybe they're running this thing for profit. Gene. I saw a record third quarter gross margin. I saw the persistency of services maintained, and critically, I saw cash generation in the gloom of Apple this morning. The second guessing, is there free cash flow growth going to EBB. No, Tom, I think it's just going to flow and flow higher. And ultimately they showed, as you said, some of the most impressive margins, most impressive gross margins that they've ever printed a mikeed environment where component costs are rising, of labor costs, shipping costs, all of that, and they've been maintaining price that shows operation efficiency. That's what drives free cash flow. And you said it right. One big X factor around free cash flow that we've observed with big tech over the last nine months is they all say we're going to be investing more into AI. Tim Cook talks about that but says he wants to do it responsibly, which means he wants to protect margins and do that that is a unique perspective. John from his house, looking down on the Helix and New Jersey emails in and says, is it a time to buy Apple? If there's all this worry about legitimate things like China, is gene monster saying load the boat. So this is not investment advice, but I do think that this is a time to own Apple. And ultimately is you have to play this picture forward for one, two and five years. And what we've seen in the near term is that the importance of their devices in our lives are central and that shows up and effectively. The guidance I think it's misunderstood is for seven percent growth, up from one percent last quarter. So that's the baseline. The second is just the opportunity that they have to continue to sell that engage base more products. And third is that they have opportunities to go into new markets, whether it be spatial computing or what potentially could come out of automotive. And so I think when you put all this together, this is a unique dynamic and I think that this will power shares higher in the years to come. Paul, you know this. I mean you've lived this where you're like, is it a twelve week quarter, thirteen week quarter of fourteen week quarter. I mean it's like death exactly. Hey, Gene, you know, going into the quarter, the pundits were saying, you know, the primary focus is going to be China. So let's approach that from the perspective of competition. Talk to us about the Huawei phone. How much of a competitor is that. How much is a concern about nationalism weighing on potentially future demand for Apple products. So the first is the Huawei phone that's picked up a lot of traction during the quarter, a lot of speculation this was going to weigh on the China numbers, and China was down two percent year over year, at a similar rate that it was down back in March when before the new Wuahwei phones came out. It was down seven percent December of twenty twenty two, and so it fluctuates as the bottom line, China's up and down, and I don't think that the Huawei phone is having an impact. Apple gained share in China in the September quarter, and Huawei may have gained share too, But Apple is gaining share, and so I think that it is not having an impact on their business. And if you look at their China business, and I look at this on excluding the FX on a constant currency basis, it was up four percent. I'm reluctant to do that because I want to give but it's worth noting that China's doing okay for Apple. Yeah, Paul, Code of the day, Aniograna genius. Apple has eighteen percent one eight eighteen percent of the unit installed base. And yet you just heard g monsters say they're gaining share in the training share. All right, let's go to the other side of the income statement. There a gene on the cost side here. I guess you know, when I look at the operations of Apple, I just don't see any scenarre where the d couple from China. Now, they can, I guess, reduce to some extent their dependency on sourcing and manufacturing in China, but they really can't decouple. So did how do investors, long term investors like you get comfortable with that side of the equation. I don't think you do. And I think that I mentioned everything is good in China. I was talking about on the consumer side. I think on the production manufacturing side, it's a different story. And the story is that Apple needs to get out of China or at least reduce its exposure. Right now, we estimate that about forty to forty five percent of their revenue is manufactured in China. Now it's down from sixty percent a few years ago, so they've been reducing their exposure there. But the bottom line is that I don't think investors until that number gets down to twenty percent, I don't think investors are going to rest easy because this is as a geopolitical element to it and is a wild card when it comes to some of the confidence that investor have in the company's ability to produce products to meet this sensational demand and gene does a company have a strategy or are they articulating any confidence that they can in fact get down to that twenty or twenty five percent exposure they do, it's predominantly India. India's right now about two percent of their production, and they've talked about ramping production there and so it'll go tell a lot of other areas, even like you probably will see something in Mexico in the next five years too. Jane, quickly here services up sixteen percent. It's a persistent vector. Do you have a terminal rate on services or does it just grow out, you know, until Frozen eight comes out for Disney. I mean, you know, does it just go out forever. It's gonna keep going out forever because they have pricing leverage. It's not just in what they've raised the pricing with Apple TV Plus, but they raise pricing with the storage. You get those notifications. They raise it at buck a month. You don't think much about it, but that's a fifteen percent increase. And so I think that this business is generally a ten percent growing business for the foreseeable future, which can put three to five years ten seconds. Gene Monster, what's your terminal some of the parts on Apple right now? Some of the parts some of the parts is two forty And I think that's based on as we think about just ultimately what they can earn in twenty twenty five, Gene Munster. Not investment advice, but that's where we're at. It's not investment advice. But Tucker's got his by order out right now. G Muster, thank you so much. Luke Vencha. Well, let's say the show now. You can always do that with anarog Rana. He is truly expert on the cloud and has a partial interest in an Apple computer as well, Anna Regan, why you to explain to the audience how a tech company runs their company for profit versus running it just at the top line. To me, Apple is a profit cast generating juggernaut. Why is that so odd, so strange? Yeah, I think that goes back to the foundation of the company. It really believes in having high margin products. It does not believe in gaining market share. You know, even after all these years, it has only eighteen percent of the unit market share of smartphones around the world. It can completely change that overnight if they drop the price of the phone, but they will never do that because they believe in gross margins more than anything else. Over time, they will gain enough market share in every market. But this is not something that they do is try to gain market share just for the same It's the journey on a rag. As you know. Before we start talking about lower prices, can we talk about the absence of higher prices? Have they lost pricing power? No? No, I don't think so. The problem over here is people are keeping their phones for a longer period of time. If you are keeping it, let's say for an average three point six years before, you're probably keeping closer to four years. So what that does is it just elongates the time it takes for you to refresh your phones or for that bat at any other product. So I don't think it has nothing to do with the pricing power. The Promax is unbelievably expensive compared to the older models, and it's doing very well. Clearly the revenue mixed growth shift is moving towards services and IRAQ. How does that change your approach to value in this company? Yeah, I mean it has been a true surprise to see that number grow still in double digits. I expected that to be back into the high single digits by now. It has a high gross margin. It has a seventy percent plus gross margin compared to products, which is in the thirties. So over time, when you see the revenue mix shift towards services, you can expect the overall company gross margins to trend up inch, you know, inch by inch growing up, and we have seen that already in the last few years. Anor do you think that analysts are overplaying or underplaying the declines that we saw in China? I think you have to sit down and think what kind of company this is and I think this is really evident, and you know, I've discussed this with Tom and Paul many times, that this is not a company that's going to grow sales in double digits. This is at best, at this point, you know, mid to high single digit company. And I think people are getting used to that fact. Yesterday when they guide it for December quarter, which the estimate was it's going to grow about five percent, they said about flatish sales, and that's when the stock drop. I think people need to come to that point that you know, refresch cycles are going up and it's going to be a time before things are going to grow at that same pace, which then leads to a question of how much growth, how much future growth is baked into the valuation of the company that's seen a thirty seven percent rally. You're todate, Yeah, I think valuation is something that we talk about a lot with investors, and you know, sometimes you have to really ask yourself is this a technology company or this is a consumer stables company, Because if you take the heart of a consumer stables company, you know, something like a Coca Cola or a Costco, then you see things with a very different lens because those companies also are not growing, you know, eight to ten percent top line. Ana, I want to look at something beneath the radar. This week, it's a Friday, and in the world of Microsoft is a different Friday. It's a copilot Friday. What is the importance of this announcement that Microsoft's making where we actually do AI with a modeled marketed program for global corporations. What does co pilot mean to Microsoft? So, copilots is basically an AI tool that goes with your original software package. In the case of Microsoft, it's launched that with their Office Suite, which started setting yesterday. It's about thirty dollars per user per month, and they're hoping that, you know, the serious worker in the office that's probably somewhere in one hundred and fifteen million to two hundred million people around the world that currently use the Office Suite will opt some portion of that will opt for this particular feature to help gain productivity. Copilot can also be used in writing software. So it is just a tool that everybody has. They are the first ones to come out with it at such aggressive face. What's your prediction on this? I mean, come on, you've nailed the cloud. You got a cloud view out three years or five years, which is just absolutely remarkable. What is your prediction on how copilot will will do? I think, and I argue it's going to be very slow and steady because the thirty dollars per user, you know, per month is a very steep price. We think, you know, adoption rate is not going to be more than three to five percent in the first year of coming out, so you know, perhaps at two to three billion dollar upside on that. On the on the software coding side of it, which is getthub co Pilot, we think the adoption rate is going to be very high, you know, close to seventy five percent, because I don't see any developer out there that can afford to right code without this tool right next to them. And Rex, thank you, sir. In Washington, Terry Haynes joins US now founder of pengea policy Terry with great cheer for the exhaustion of our secretary straight. Does Shuttle diplomacy for Blincoln work like Shuttle diplomacy worked for Kissinger? I think it's very different for a couple of reasons, one of one of which is kind of bubbling under here. You know, Blincoln's mission this time, as opposed to the last few times, is designed to try to get to try to convince the Israeli government of some kind of pause or humanitarian something like that. And it calls into question a couple of things. It calls into question the degree to which the United States continues to support the current Israeli government. The Biden aids are running around Washington briefing against net Nyau right now. And Secondly, it calls into question whether or not and to what extent the US still supports the Israel's war aims in Gaza, and that's a concern. All this also complicates the Israel the Israeli aid package, because Congress is not going to pass the Israel package if they don't clearly understand what administration policy is. So we've got a lot of a lot of problems here that complicate Lincoln's mission. Terry, unfair question, but I got to go there. It isn't the zeitgeist end of the weekend as well. Then you were there with Lord Kitchener and Mark Sykes when they divided up the Middle East after World War One. I understand that all of a sudden we're talking about a partition of God, we saw a partition of Vietnam, a partition of Korea. Is that the easy way out here is whatever this word means, A partition of the Gaza strip. Yeah, there's a partition, and you know, it's kind of international administration or all the phrases that go together. These are phrases that go back, as you quite quite rightly point out to post World War One League of Nations mandate style governance, and and they tend to bury the harder realities, which are then the nature of the terrorist organizations, the nature of their funding, and you know what sorts of proxies they are, and they tend to bury, you know, kind of kind of regional responsibility for the problem. And all those are going to have to be dealt with, and you know, we haven't even started to deal with any of those yet. Terry, what do you make about the strife within the Republican Party stemming from Senator Tuberville of Alabama, this idea that he will stall with the affirmation the confirmation of some of the military promotions at a time of expanding conflict overseas well. You know, I'd give you two points about that. One is that it is obviously providing some strife within the military. And at the same time, the Senator says directly, and to my knowledge, has never been countermanded, that he wants to have a dialogue with the Department of Defense about all this stuff and come to some sort of resolution, and that he's not got it. What I think is going to end up happening is this gets resolved somehow in the defense spending legislation that comes up by about the end of the year. One way or another, this is going to get dealt with in the next two months. There was a resolution that passed the House offering support to Israel, but also tying it to cuts to the IRS, which some have suggested would actually cause a bigger deficit because it would reduce tax revenues that the US government gets. Does this progress the issue or actually push it back in terms of the debate, Well, two things. One is that the you know, only in Washington, would the I R S get beyond being rough here, would get eighty billion more dollars and then have it cut by fourteen and have that considered by anybody to be a cut in IRS spending. You know, But there you are Secondly, I think the funding is the help is really is funded is almost beside the point. The bigger problem that we have right now really is this. You know, you ran Admiral Kirby and your lead in Admiral Kirby says that the administration has four priorities and they all need to get dealt with together. Well, these are Biden's priorities. These are Biden's foreign policy. Biden's going to have to get all this stuff done and in a way that funded properly, and right now, whatever else Secretary Blincoln's doing. The apparent change in Biden policy towards Israel is making that more difficult because now Congress doesn't understand exactly what Biden's foreign policy is. Hey, Terry, great to get your input as always, Terry Hanks there of Panchaea policy. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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US markets finished higher overnight, recovering earlier losses following fresh remarks from Fed officials bolstering confidence the Fed will refrain from lifting rates this year amid rising oil prices and conflict between Israel and Hamas. The Dow finished near best levels, up 197 points (+0.59). Dow at best up 224 points. Dow at worst down 154 points. The S&P 500 is up 0.63%, and the NASDAQ rose 0.39%. US bond markets were closed overnight for Columbus Day. Traditional safe-haven assets were in demand amid conflict. Gold rose 1.58% and the USD Index edged higher, up 0.04%. Among stocks, US energy companies led gains buoyed by higher oil prices, Exxon Mobil up 3.5% and Chevron up 2.8%. Defence stocks also rallied, with the Aerospace & Defence index ending 5.6% higher, its largest one-day gain since November 2020. Conversely, Airlines and travel companies were hit hard, with Carnival, United Airlines, Delta Airlines and American Airlines all down over 4% on travel disruption concerns.ASX to open higher. SPI Futures up 30 points (+0.43%).Russell 2000 up 0.60%.November CME FedWatch Tool now at 87.5% probability the Fed will hold rates at the next FOMC meeting up from 72.9% yesterday, and December FOMC meeting at 73.2% probability up from 57.6% yesterday.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

US futures are pointing to a slightly lower open after the first positive Wall Street close for 2023 on Wednesday. European equity markets have opened with losses, following mostly positive Asian trade. Early attention is on December FOMC minutes which were largely consistent with Powell's hawkish-leaning press conference and offered no additional color on the direction of Fed policy. More positive reopening news from China spurred Asian benchmarks.Companies Mentioned: Western Digital, Kioxia, Amazon, Luxshare Precision Industry, Apple

Federal Reserve officials believe that “substantially more evidence” of slowing inflation is necessary before the central bank cuts interest rates this year, according to the December FOMC minutes which were released Wednesday afternoon. Fed officials cited concern that inflation could prove “modestly persistent,” and said that higher rates for longer will be necessary to fight inflation. Officials agreed that rate cuts shouldn't happen in 2023. On today's Daily Briefing, Darius Dale, the founder of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the market's response to this news, his view of inflation, and what it all means for global assets as we navigate the year ahead. Plus, we hear from Mish Schnieder of MarketGauge.com who gives us her opinion of where inflation will head in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

US equities finished higher in somewhat choppy Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 40 basis points, 75 basis points, and 69 basis points respectively. December FOMC minutes were largely consistent with Powell's hawkish-leaning commentary and offered little to shift market expectations away from the consensus forecast for a 25bp hike in February. ISM manufacturing was largely in line and JOLTS job openings came in stronger than expected.

Dow Jones today finished in the green along with the S&P 500 Index or SPX, Nasdaq-100, and Russell 2000. The stock market closed higher following the release of December FOMC minutes. Next, Renita Young weighs in on Salesforce (CRM) announcing a restructuring plan that included cutting 10% of workforce. Also, Microsoft (MSFT) was downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS. Finally, Netflix (NFLX) stock price saw strength after New Street initiated coverage with a neutral rating and a $304 price target.

On today's Short Squeeze we get the Fed Minutes from the December FOMC meeting. Then we get into Coinbase's ($COIN) huge settlement with New Your State and Southwest Airlines trying to pick up the pieces. 00:00 Fed Minutes 05:22 $100 million Coinbase settlement 11:30 Southwest Airlines PR roleYou can find every episode of this show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube. Prime Members can listen ad-free on Amazon Music. For more, visit barstool.link/BarFin

In this episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves walks us through what we collectively observed from the second weak inflation print in a row, and what to expect ahead on that front. George views the markets have this tendency to pull forward returns, and the latest price action is emblematic of such performance. Finally, George gives his base case on what to look for at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Bottom line, although with each subsequent FOMC meeting we are getting closer to the end of the hiking cycle, we do not expect chair Powell to signal as such. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Equities retreat ahead of the December FOMC meeting because of a growing fear of inflation. The last few consumer inflation reports suggested inflation had peaked but that was belied by the PPI index on Friday. The PPI came in hot on all counts and points to ongoing systemic inflation that will lead to higher consumer prices down the road. The takeaway is that the Fed may slow the pace of interest rate hikes but the duration and peak rate will be more than the market is expecting. Other than the FOMC meeting and PPI there is little for the market to pay attention to other than economic data and there is a lot of that on the Calendar. Reads on Empire Manufacturing, Philly Fed MBOS and Retail Sales top the list of reports and they are expected to show a mixed picture of the economy which will do little to cheer investors ahead of the holidays. A Santa Claus Rally may be coming but it's not here yet.

Michael Kelly, Global Head of Multi-Asset, Pinebridge discusses what's in store for the December FOMC meeting, as well as why China is at the top of his list when it comes to opportunities in 2023.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Equities pulled back for another day on Wall Street as fear of recession in 2023 grips the market once again. While nothing has changed fundamentally, the number of CEOs calling or preparing for a recession is growing. The risk for investors now is that economic contraction won't happen and the S&P 500 will continue to rally well into next year. The next hurdles for the market are at hand. Friday will bring the PPI index and next week is the December FOMC meeting. The PPI is not expected to show much change versus the previous month which is bad news, high and steadily rising producer prices can only mean higher prices for consumers down the road. As for the FOMC, the committee is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting but the tone of the statement could change. The latest news from that direction is that interest rates move higher than currently expected and remain that way for longer.

At a routine press conference today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell send the markets screaming to the upside based off comments about the December FOMC rate announcement. I'll discuss his comments, market reactions and how we finished the month of November! Have questions? Send them in live during the show starting at 2pm PST today! #Trading #futures #stocks #china #AAPL #JeromePowell #FOMC Sign up for a free, 6 video course on Cryptocurrency here: https://www.tradingacademy.com/crypto/ Contact TraderMerlin: Email – TraderMerlin@gmail.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13930555/ Twitter: TraderMerlin - https://twitter.com/TraderMerlin IG: TraderMerlin - https://www.instagram.com/tradermerlin/ FB: TraderMerlin  - https://www.facebook.com/TraderMerlin Live Daily Show:  - https://www.youtube.com/TraderMerlin   Trading Applications used: TastyWorks, CliK, TradeStation, TradingView

"The Fed's playbook is to go bigger for longer," warns Chris Versace, chief investment officer of Tematica Research. Versace tells our Daniela Cambone, "there will be 50 to 75 bps hikes at the November and December FOMC," based on the inflation data forecasted through the rest of 2022. He urges viewers not to "fight the Fed" as the housing market rolls over and highlights that the Fed warned, "there will be some pain experienced." The strength of the U.S. dollar is holding gold down, "but other commodities are rallying such as wheat, corn, soybeans, and others," Versace concludes.

This episode is sponsored by Nexo, Abra and FTX US. Last week, the December FOMC meeting minutes revealed that not only was the Fed expecting at least 3 rate hikes in 2022, they were actively considering “balance sheet normalization” (read: quantitative tightening). In today's episode, NLW looks at how the markets are internalizing this new information, and why it's setting up to be one of the most significant influences on markets this year.  Enjoying this content?   SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple:  https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M=   Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8   Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW - Nexo is a powerful, all-in-one crypto platform where you can securely store your crypto. Invest, borrow, exchange and earn up to 17% APR on Bitcoin and 20+ other top coins. Insured for $375M. Audited in real-time by Armanino. Rated excellent on Trustpilot. Get started today at nexo.io. - Abra is proud to sponsor The Breakdown. Join 1M+ users and Conquer Crypto with Abra, a simple and secure app where you can trade 110+ cryptocurrencies, get 0% interest loans using crypto as collateral, and earn interest with up to 14% APY on stablecoins and 8.15% APY on Bitcoin. Visit Abra.com to get started. - FTX US is the safe, regulated way to buy Bitcoin, ETH, SOL and other digital assets. Trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than top competitors and trade ETH and SOL NFTs with no gas fees and subsidized gas on withdrawals. Sign up at FTX.US today. - “The Breakdown '' is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell, Michele Musso, and Adrian Blust, research by Scott Hill and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Time” by OBOY. Image credit: DNY59/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8.

A Fed shift from QE to QT and a political battle over austerity and inflation.This episode is sponsored by Nexo, Abra and FTX US.Last week, the December FOMC meeting minutes revealed that not only was the Fed expecting at least 3 rate hikes in 2022, they were actively considering “balance sheet normalization” (read: quantitative tightening). In today's episode, NLW looks at how the markets are internalizing this new information, and why it's setting up to be one of the most significant influences on markets this year. -Nexo is a powerful, all-in-one crypto platform where you can securely store your crypto. Invest, borrow, exchange and earn up to 17% APR on Bitcoin and 20+ other top coins. Insured for $375M. Audited in real-time by Armanino. Rated excellent on Trustpilot. Get started today at nexo.io.-Abra is proud to sponsor The Breakdown. Join 1M+ users and Conquer Crypto with Abra, a simple and secure app where you can trade 110+ cryptocurrencies, get 0% interest loans using crypto as collateral, and earn interest with up to 14% APY on stablecoins and 8.15% APY on Bitcoin. Visit Abra.com to get started.-FTX US is the safe, regulated way to buy Bitcoin, ETH, SOL and other digital assets. Trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than top competitors and trade ETH and SOL NFTs with no gas fees and subsidized gas on withdrawals. Sign up at FTX.US today.-“The Breakdown '' is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell, Michele Musso, and Adrian Blust, research by Scott Hill and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Time” by OBOY. Image credit: DNY59/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Thirty Capital's rate predictions for 2021 were super close, with rates going up to 1.78 on last week's release of the December FOMC minutes. The minutes indicate the Fed might hike rates as early as March this year once tapering is finalized. The news pushed the Ten-year Treasury up a massive 27 basis points from its closing of 1.51, currently at 1.78 – the highest level since January of 2020. Thirty Capital Analyst Bryan Kern says: “All of our predictions for 2021 were close - we missed it by about two or three days.” But is 1.80 now the floor, or will we see higher than that? Bryan thinks the floor is in the 1.70 range, with some movement up and down, depending on the news. Generally, he says, commercial real estate investors can expect to see rates heading higher. Short-term rate predictions for 2022 In this episode Analyst Jay Saunders gives an in-depth explanation of what's happening with short-term rates and the SOFR curve. Briefly, on the short-term rate front, the curve actually steepened a little bit last year. Jay explains that this will continue in 2022. Of interest, he adds, is that on the forwards on the SOFR curve there is not a reset anywhere going out for 50 years above 2%. Analyst Jason Kelley agrees, saying that he doesn't see short-term rates going over 2% at any time in the future. Long-term outlook for inflation Jay says that he and many others aren't convinced that the economy is in a long-term inflationary environment. Despite what's happening now - largely due to the pandemic - the long-term fundamentals aren't going to change. “I think that some of the inflationary pressures are starting to ease a little bit. I don't think you're going to continue to see it accelerate,” comments Jay. Rate volatility a ‘big deal' Even so, Thirty Capital CEO Rob Finlay points out that any kind of rate spikes will be tough for investors. For example, a 25-basis point increase on an investor's borrowing will crush a deal. Rob asks his team if rates will trade within a band of around 1.70, or will there be an increase to 2.25, with rates then coming back down? Bryan believes rates will generally be range-bound, with occasional - but not crazy - volatility week over week, and there won't be a repeat of the market's last two weeks. The Fed needs to be cautious Jason says the Fed needs to be cautious. “There are loads of articles out there calling for Fed rate increases this year, but I think the Fed is going to realize that if they crank up rates too much, they're going to tank real estate and the stock market. “I think they're going to soften a bit,” Jason continues. “I wouldn't be surprised if we get three increases in 2022, but I don't think there's four behind that in 2023.” Jason reminds listeners that even when the Fed tells the market what it's going to do, it doesn't always end up doing it. Complexity in the CRE market Rob and his team discuss the current level of complexity in the CRE market. The question a lot of investors face is should they be looking at long-term fixed rates, or floating rates. This depends on an investor's average hold period. Regardless, the numbers need analyzing because they are very important. Listen to the episode for the full coverage of the start of the year and what the team predicts for 2022!

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from the December FOMC meeting this week. They were even more hawkish than expected. That sparked a big taper tantrum in the markets. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey gives an overview of the minutes and then asks seven poignant questions they raise that aren't being asked by the mainstream. Visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/33anih4 Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

U.S equities finished sharply lower in Wednesday trading, at worst levels. The December FOMC minutes read somewhat hawkish, as generally expected. The other big story today was stronger-than-expected ADP private payrolls, posting its biggest increase since May. Other news continues to revolve around Covid, though a surge in infections is countered by expectations the Omicron wave will be much shorter and much milder.

Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the FOMC's December meeting and what the Fed chair said about the change in the pace of tapering asset purchases. Bryan and Ben also provide their perspective on when federal funds rates may increase and how that could impact the economy in 2022. [NFM-20130AO.15]

Alex Roever is joined by Mike Feroli and Jay Barry to discuss the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the impact on the US rates market.  The Fed made major changes to its policy statement, and the latest SEP indicate an early policy liftoff and a faster pace of hikes in 2022 and 2023.  This largely aligns with our forecast that the Fed will liftoff in June and then tighten at a quarterly pace thereafter.  In the aftermath of this meeting, front-end Treasury yields declined and the curve broadly steepened.  We discuss the impact of valuations, positioning, and liquidity on the rates markets in the aftermath of the Fed meeting This podcast was recorded on December 16, 2021. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952359-0,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952581-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In today's episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves provides his view on the upcoming and last FOMC meeting of 2021. As our title suggests, the Fed could be heading into a Catch-22 in 2022, where the challenge now is that financial conditions and market sentiment linked to it are so intertwined with the Fed's balance-sheet. Thus as the Fed tapers faster and pulls forward hikes in 2022, the give and take between rates and financial conditions more broadly will likely dictate how far and how high the Fed can lift rates before materially impacting markets to the downside. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Rob Fleming, Senior Market Analyst at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, discusses how today's PPI data will affect the Fed's decision on tapering and rates. He talks about how the December FOMC meeting begins today, and how to invest with the Fed's decision in mind. He then goes over how rate hikes will affect the markets. Tune in to find out more.

The December FOMC meeting started today, and markets set a negative tone! All major indexes were down on the day. On today's show, we will look at Elon Musk influence, Nike entering the Metaverse, Harley Davidson, the Canadian Dollar and much more!  Send in your questions and join us live at  2pm PST today. #FOMC #inflation #trading #income #Crypto Sign up for a free, 6 video course on Cryptocurrency here: https://www.tradingacademy.com/crypto/ Contact TraderMerlin: Email – TraderMerlin@gmail.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13930555/ Twitter: TraderMerlin - https://twitter.com/TraderMerlin IG: TraderMerlin - https://www.instagram.com/tradermerlin/ FB: TraderMerlin  - https://www.facebook.com/TraderMerlin Live Daily Show:  - https://www.youtube.com/TraderMerlin   Trading Applications used: TastyWorks, CliK, TradeStation, TradingView

Both the press statement and the minutes from the December FOMC meeting make the end of the Fed's asset purchase program pretty clear: the official “taper and cease” program is conditional upon the economy attaining “substantial further progress toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.” The latest December employment report fits quite well with MUFG's U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann's view that the U.S. economy is on track to attain: (a) a complete recovery to the aggregate level of real GDP by mid-summer 2021, (b) full year growth of +5.7% YoY in 2021, (c) a +4.2% U3 unemployment rate by year-end 2021 and (d) the economy adding a net +6.1 million new jobs by year-end 2021. By the end of the 3rd Quarter 2021, and possibly sooner, most investors are likely to believe that an official “taper and cease” announcement may occur prior to the end of the year. Unlike in 2013, however, we believe that most investors will not wait until the FOMC unveils an official “taper and cease” announcement to invest and trade it. Hence, our core strategic investment stance remains a 2s-30s Treasury yield curve steepener. Investors desirous of a little extra optionality from, say, mortgage convexity selling in the spring and a little extra juice, may consider a 2s-10s Treasury yield curve steepener, we believe. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways from today’s Fed meeting, including the impact of guidance on Fed purchases and the market response. They conclude by previewing technicals in January.

Over the past 8 months, it has been ironic to watch Chair Powell strengthen his economic growth and employment tracking projections, while he doubles down upon his view over the downside risks to the outlook and of the need to enact greater fiscal and monetary policy measures over the near-term. The latest news on the roll-out and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines suggests upside risks to the dour outlook over the medium-term. In this episode, MUFG U.S. Rates Strategist, John Herrmann, previews the December FOMC meeting. John expects the FOMC to strengthen its GDP growth estimates and to lower its unemployment projections. He also thinks there is a decent chance that Chair Powell convinces the Committee to extend the duration of its Treasury security purchases and/or increase its monthly pace of Treasury purchases. These actions would support the economy in the face of current COVID-19 strains and also serve to restrain the extent of the sell-off in the back-end of the yield curve as the economy moves into many consecutive quarters of strong economic growth starting in Q2 2021.

Today we cover the FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged and some effects in emerging markets, currencies and metals We also cover the upcoming presidential election, briefly Join our email list at https://macro-ops.com Follow us on Twitter at: Chris @ChrisDMacro Alex on Twitter @MacroOps Like, comment and let us know what you are curious about in the markets

The US dollar is higher against most major pairs on Tuesday. The Canadian dollar is an outlier as it gained 0.17 percent versus the greenback ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate statement. The Canadian central bank has divided analyst as is expected to hold rates even if an interest rate hike would not be a total surprise. The BoC was expected to hike a couple of times in 2019, specially after staying put in December while the Fed lifted American rates. The volatile end of the year and the rocky start to this one has changed Fed monetary policy expectations and its anticipated Governor Poloz waits until there is less uncertainty on trade and oil prices before seeking normalization. Canadian trade deficit widened in November BoC to hold rates at 1.75 percent Fed Minutes from December FOMC to be published

Jim Rickards, author of The Road to Ruin, joins Remy Blaire at the NASDAQ MarketSite following the December FOMC rate announcement to discuss the trajectory of the Federal Reserve. Rickards weighs in on the U.S.-China trade war and the fundamental outlook for the global investment landscape.

Jim Rickards, author of The Road to Ruin, joins Remy Blaire at the NASDAQ MarketSite following the December FOMC rate announcement to discuss the trajectory of the Federal Reserve. Rickards weighs in on the U.S.-China trade war and the fundamental outlook for the global investment landscape.

The Federal Reserve dominated the business news cycle this week. Investors thought maybe Daddy Powell would let the party keep going, but it looks like he's still planning on taking the punch bowl away. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about the Fed's decision to hike rates and keep on hiking, and analyzes the carnage on Wall Street in the wake of the December FOMC meeting. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/2V3sKcL Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week’s economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.