Podcasts about Industrial production

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news today is the day the US has promised to levy arbitrary tariffs but still no word about how Australia and New Zealand will fare. It's not the end of August 1 until later tomorrow in the US. In the meantime, Mexico has been the latest country to be granted a 90 day extension.Meanwhile, initial US jobless claims fell to 193,100 in the fourth week of July, just marginally more than seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now 2.016 mln people on these benefits, +82,000 more than the 1.934 mln in the same week a year ago.US-based employers announced 62,075 job cuts in July, up +29% from June's 47,999 and up +140% from 25,885 announced in the same month last year. July's job cuts were also well above average for a July month since the pandemic.The US PCE price index rose +0.3% in June from May, the largest increase in four months, following an upwardly revised +0.2% gain in May. Prices for goods were up +0.4%, and prices for services rose +0.2%. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, also went up +0.3%, also its strongest monthly gain in four months. Year on year, the PCE was up +2.6%, the core PCE up +2.8%. With more broad tariffs ahead, plus firms now far less willing to absorb these burdens, the future track of US inflation looks like it has only upside.Personal disposable incomes rose +1.7% from June a year ago in the US, personal spending was up +2.1%.In the industrial heartland, the Chicago PMI contracted much less in July, after a good rise in new order levels. But it is still contracting, only slower.Canada may be being disrespected by its bully southern neighbour via tariff threats and economic pressure, but its economy is showing remarkable resilience. In May, their GDP eased just -0.1% while in June it rose +0.1%. This is a far better result for them than they may have expected given the taunts and penalties they have had to absorb. Unlike Mexico, they aren't getting any delay in US tariff changes.As expected, the Bank of Japan held its policy rate unchanged yesterday at 0.5%. The decision was unanimous, reflecting the central bank's cautious approach to policy normalisation.Japanese industrial production surged in June, and in a quite unexpected way. Year-on-year it was up +4.0%, month-on-month up +1.7%. A small retreat was expected.The official July PMIs for China were released yesterday, showing their factory sector contracting at a faster rate and their service sector expansion all but evaporating. These results are not disastrous, but they will worry Beijing all the same. The vibrancy they recently re-found isn't lasting.There were some very positive Australian retail trade data released yesterday. And oddly, this is the final data released for retail sales as they shift to their "Monthly household spending indicator" series. The final data for retail trade brought a +4.9% year-on-year burst in value terms, +1.5% in volume terms. These levels were far better than any analyst was expecting. The contrast with New Zealand is rather stark.There was a marked slowing in the growth of air travel in June, up +2.6% in June and half the +5.1% rise in the same month a year ago. The North American market was flat, but the Asia Pacific international market rose +7.2% and an outsized gain.The June air cargo market expanded little overall, up +0.8% from a year ago. But that was because of a sharp retreat in cargo volumes in North America (down -8.3% for domestic cargoes, down -6.1% in international cargoes). Elsewhere international cargo volumes rose +1.6% and Asia Pacific volumes were up +8.3%.Container freight rates were little changed last week (-1%) with outbound rates from China the weakest segment. From a year ago these rates are now -56% lower although to be fair they were unusually high a year ago on Red Sea security problems. Bulk freight rates fell -5.3% over past week from the prior week to be +13% higher than year-ago levels.It's probably worth noting that after the large fall in the copper price we noted yesterday, there has been no bounce - it is still falling.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.36%, down -1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,294/oz, up +US$17 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back -US$1.50 at just on US$69/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just on US$71.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar was at 58.9 USc and and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.4, up +20 bps from yesterday helped by a rise against the yen which fell back after their central bank meeting.The bitcoin price started today at US$117,775 and essentially unchanged again (+US$9) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Fed Decision and Market Reactions - July 30th Recap In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel recaps the outcomes of the recent Federal Reserve meeting held over the past two days. The Fed decided to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, which led to mixed reactions in the market. Despite initial market rallies, comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell led to a reversal, resulting in a net loss for the DOW and modest movements in the S&P and Nasdaq. Significant data discussed includes the better-than-expected Q2 GDP figures and fluctuating private payroll and housing sales data. Brian also touches on the historical context of industrial production and productivity growth post-2008 financial crisis. The episode closes with a Q&A segment, addressing the broader economic trends and their implications. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:08 Fed Meeting Insights and Market Reactions 01:51 Economic Calendar Highlights 04:11 Industrial Production and Productivity Post-Financial Crisis 05:30 Q&A and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with talks are underway in Stockholm between the US and China over a trade/tariff deal. Prospects are not high.And the recent EU-US deal has the makings of unravelling. Both France and Germany are unhappy about the outcome, made worse by the US claiming verbally pharmaceuticals have been excluded when the EU negotiators said they were not excluded from the 15% written deal.The big casualty in all of these deals, including the Japanese one, is trust in the US. Smartarse public commenting by the US president - even some of his advisers - means the deals struck are unlikely to be respected by the US or trusted by the others. The result isn't "a deal", it is a fluid mess.New Zealand's situation in all this will be a footnote, probably sometime on Saturday.In the US, the Dallas Fed's factory survey improved sharply in July, but this was all about higher production. New orders are still contracting, even if at a slower rate. Elevated input price pressures continued in July. Improved sentiment is driving the raised output even in the absence of a pickup in new orders.Financial market eyes are now turning to Thursday's (NZT) US Federal Reserve meeting and decisions. Despite the overt Whitehouse pressure, financial market pricing shows virtually no-one is pricing in a rate cut.In Canada, wholesale sales came in better than expected, up +0.7% in June from May when a -0.2% retreat was anticipated. But despite that good recent gain, they will still be lower than in June 2024.Across the Pacific, from 2022 to 2024, Taiwanese consumer confidence rose. But since October 2024 it has been falling. However the July survey rose, the first break in the recent down-trend. It wasn't a big move from June, but they will take it.In China, they are taking something they don't want. Foreign direct investment recorded another net outflow in June, and a worse one than the highly unusual April net outflow. The reasonable start to 2025 is being undone faster now. In the six months to June they have had a net inflow of US$42.3 bln. In 2024 they had more than that in just the first three months and even that was much weaker than in 2023 (US$98 bln) or 2022 (US$112 bln). Fleeing investors isn't a good look for China.Indian industrial production expanded a rather weak +1.5% in June from a year ago, held back by surprisingly weak mining (coal) production.. In their factories however, the story is much better with manufacturing production us +3.9% from a year ago, a better rise than in May although less than the +4.5% expected.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, up +3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,309/oz, down -US$27 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 at just on US$66.50/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just under US$70/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.7 USc and down -½c from yesterday and back to where it was a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,664 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more big-country tariff negotiation updates.But first, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week as their benchmark 30 year mortgage rate rose.Meanwhile, American home resales fell in June from May to an annualised rate of under 4 mln and down -4.4% from June 2024. This was largely driven by declining sales of single family homes. But median prices inched up, now at US$435,300 (NZ$720,000). High mortgage rates are getting the blame.There was another US Treasury bond auction overnight, this one for their 20 year maturity. It was well supported with a median yield of 4.89%. That was little different to the 4.88% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.The US has said it has agreed a 15% tariff deal with Japan (a notable level lower than the arbitrary 25% previously imposed). The main thing Japan had to do was agree to buy things (like aircraft) that would probably have bought from the US anyway. But it also supposedly requires Japan to water down its standards for rice imports and open their markets to US cars. Both of those requirements show a distinctly naive understanding of Japan. Very likely they will drive an anti-US sentiment by consumers there, mirroring what is happening in Canada. Japanese investors loved the deal - for Japan. boosting the Nikkei225 +2.2% at its market opening yesterday and ending the day up +3.5%.The Japanese bond market - an enormous beast - reacted with Japan's 10-year government bond yield surging nearly +10 bp to around 1.60% approaching its highest level since 2008.In South Korea, the glow after resolving its presidential issues has seen its Consumer Sentiment Index rise in July from June, the fourth consecutive monthly gain and the highest reading since January 2018. The improvement reflects growing optimism fueled by the newly elected government and expectations for economic stimulus.Taiwanese industrial production continues to expand aggressively, up another +18% in June from a year ago, no surprise given the strong order inflows we reported earlier this week. But Taiwanese retail sales are nowhere near as positive, actually.In Europe, there is growing optimism some sort of tariff deal with the US is imminent. The US-Japan deal is being seen as a benchmark, and the optimism is fuel by the early judgement that Japan will come out on top in that one.In Australia, economic growth momentum is leaking away. At least, that is what the Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading indicator data shows. For them, the main drag coming from commodity prices, consumer and business sentiment, and total hours worked.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,387/oz, down -US$40 from yesterday.American oil prices are holding at just over US$65/bbl but the international Brent price is still at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.4 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +25 bps at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7, up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,867 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

In this week's episode, we cover a wide range of reports that touch on inflation, consumer spending, manufacturing activity, and what might come out of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 30. We also analyze the moves in both the bond markets and equities caused by the rumors of President Trump's desire to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Lastly, we discuss the potential for antitrust activity among the most influential companies in the technology sector, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 00:57 – The Consumer Price Index – a measure of inflation – increased in both overall and core (which excludes food and energy prices) figures in June, both month over month and year over year. The next release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) – another measure of inflation – is expected on July 31.02:03 – The U.S. Census Bureau released its monthly report on advance monthly retail sales, which was positive for the economy and showed an 0.6% increase in consumer spending for June.02:46 – The Federal Reserve's latest Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report showed a 0.3% uptick in manufacturing in June, which was a very welcome sign because April and May figures were relatively flat, and March was negative.03:27 – The Fed released its Beige Book report, which comes out in advance of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, it shows cautiously positive signs across the twelve districts, with five reporting slight or modest gains, five with flat activity, and modest declines for the remaining two.04:12 – We note three themes to pay attention to over the next few weeks in addition to the upcoming FOMC meeting: President Trump's ongoing or extended pause on tariffs, the PCE inflation report, and updated figures on the labor market.05:08 – Because the CPI data was higher than expected, market expectations of the Fed issuing a July rate cut are down to under 5%, while expectations of a September rate cut are around 60%. Still, a growing contingency is betting on the next rates cuts coming as late as the fourth quarter of this year or not at all until 2026.06:27 – The bond market reacts to this week's economic news with front-end yields, which are more sensitive to Fed policy, moving lower more rapidly than longer-ended yields, which are more sensitive to the economy and inflation.07:56 – The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (“the MOVE Index”,) – which tracks volatility in the bond market – spiked on reports that Trump was thinking of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but quickly came back down and remains stable, signaling a resilient bond market.09:56 – An overall analysis of the economy and markets considering this week's rumors of Powell's potential ouster, the more likely potential of his serving out his full term, and conversations of who might come next. We look to historical precedent during Richard Nixon's presidency for what might happen in the future.13:29 – The equities market continues to see all-time highs and will likely remain high in August before anticipated cooling beginning in September. Technology sector stocks lead the market rally, with some lagging in healthcare and consumer staples.17:36 – Stocks of the Magnificent 7 are buoying the markets partly because of their high trading volume and concentration. More singularly focused companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA seem immune from government interference, but more-diversified companies like Meta and Alphabet might be more susceptible to anti-trust efforts.20:19 – The overall economic outlook is positive for now. Recession fears and tariff-related volatility are coming down, but can come back at any moment. The implications for your portfolio are to balance risk and remain diversified to offset potential future fluctuations.Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law?Key Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

Positive Market Trends and Economic Indicators Update In this episode of Dividend Cafe, hosted by Brian Szytel on Wednesday, July 16th, the positive movements in the financial markets are highlighted, including a rise in the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq, and a drop in the 10-year yield. The episode discusses the significantly cooler than expected Producer Price Index (PPI) for June, which aligns with favorable inflation targets and hints at potential reductions in consumer prices. Other positive economic signals include an increase in industrial production and optimistic comments in the Fed's latest page book. Additionally, Brian addresses viewer questions about the stability of New York City bonds amidst a potential declining tax base and the feasibility of replacing income tax with a consumption tax, providing detailed insights into these financial concerns. The episode concludes with a preview of the upcoming economic data releases for the remainder of the week. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:08 Market Overview: A Positive Day 00:34 Producer Price Index Insights 01:50 Industrial Production and Economic Activity 02:31 Financial Sector Highlights 03:12 Q&A: New York City Bonds and Tariffs 05:19 Upcoming Economic Indicators 05:36 Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

US President Trump says he is working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st. Also notes that pharma tariffs will probably begin at month-end and initial tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be lowEuropean bourses are mixed having clambered off early morning lows, Autos/Tech lags following results from Renault and ASML.US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark, NQ lags as it digests ASML's results where it walked back on its 2026 growth outlook amid tariff uncertainty.DXY essentially flat awaiting US PPI, GBP digests hot inflation metrics.EGBs slightly heavy into the MMF, Gilts lag on CPI, USTs flat before PPI.Looking ahead, US PPI, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation, Speakers including Fed's Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams. Earnings from J&J, PNC, BAC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the lacklustre handover from Wall St.US President Trump says he is working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st.European equity futures indicate a marginally softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.DXY is fractionally softer after gaining again yesterday, EUR/USD has returned to a 1.16 handle, Cable sits sub-1.34 pre-CPI.France's Marine Le Pen warned that if French PM Bayrou does not revise his public spending plan they "will seek to topple him".Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, US PPI, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation, Fed's Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams, Supply from Germany, Earnings from J&J, PNC, BAC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, ASML & Sandvik.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US yield curve has steepened overnight on messy talk about the US Fed's independence, and arbitrary US tariff statements.In more direct economic news, US mortgage applications fell sharply last week, even after adjusting for the holiday weekend. There were -10% lower than the prior week. But they are still +18% higher than a year ago. To be fair, year-ago levels were unusually low. Rising interest rates are getting the blame for the recent fall-off in activityAmerican producer prices rose +2.3% in June which was much less than the May +2.7% rise and less than the expected +2.5%. A rather large and unusual monthly drop in logistics costs kept the overall index restrained.Meanwhile US industrial production inched higher, up +0.7% in June from a year ago. It was driven by a good rise in businesses equipment and mining but that masked a fall in the much larger sector manufacturing consumer goods. But to give better context, neither of those year-on-year gains showed up in June.And that flat recent trend is showing up in the Fed's July Beige Book surveys. Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains, five had flat activity, and the remaining two Districts noted modest declines in activity. There was nothing here indicating rising business or consumer sentiment and impending investment - pointedly, quite the opposite.Across the border, Canadian housing starts in June stayed high, and certainly higher than expected. They were expected to retreat somewhat after a strong May, but remained at those elevated levels.And staying in Canada, they have released data that shows the gap between the top earners and the bottom earners has reached a record divide. The bottom 40% of households now have less than 3% of all household wealth. The top 10% have almost half. It is a twist that foreshadows future social stresses.Later today we will get Japanese trade data for June, and that is expected to be positive.And as expected. the Indonesian central bank cut its policy rate late yesterday by-25 bps to 5.25%. They said the tariff-rate 'deal' with the US will be positive for them.Also later today we will be watching the June labour market report for Australia. Another good jobs gain is expected (+20,000), skewed sharply towards full-time positions. And we will get an update in Australian inflation expectations.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.46%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,354/oz, up +US$27 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are little-changed at US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is still just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.5 USc and up +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, and down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,039 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. And that takes it back to NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/-1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US inflation is rising and tariffs are getting the blame.But first, the overnight dairy auction brought prices +1.1% higher in USD terms, +3.6% higher in NZD terms. It was the first rise we have had in these full auctions since yearly May. This time, the expected +2.5% rise in SMP was matched by an unexpected rise of +1.7% in WMP prices. Butter prices were unchanged but cheddar cheese prices fell a sharpish -5.6%.In the US they got the expected rise in CPI inflation for June, up 2.7% when it was rising 2.4% in May. The Fed will have noticed that "core inflation" rose 2.9%. Food prices rose 3.0% and rents up 3.8%. The overall level was restrained by an -8.3% drop in petrol prices. As those year-ago petrol prices normalise in future months, they won't be restraining anything. Just in time for the pass-through of the tariff-taxes. An independent Fed will be concerned about the upwad trajectory.A Fed factory survey in the New York state recorded a rise in July, their first since February. But they are seeing input cost pressure picking up. However they also report it is easier to pass on those costs and seemed relieved about that.Canada also reported its June CPI inflation rate, coming in at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in May.India reported declining merchandise exports in June, in fact their lowest level of the year and almost -8% lower than year-ago levels. Imports fell too. But strong services exports (outsourcing services) balanced things out. In contrast to China, India's rise is domestically-driven, not foreign trade driven, making them somewhat insulated from the tariff-wars.China reported that its Q2-2025 economy expanded +5.2% in inflation-adjusted terms from Q2-2024. This was bang on what Beijing had set as a target, and what observers were expecting them to announce. Strong exports and consumer subsidies helped a lot.China said its retail sales were up +4.8% in June from a year ago, its industrial production up +6.8%. So that suggests they had the best of both worlds - rising industry and rising internal consumption. That they seem to have done this all with only a modest rise in electricity production (+1.7%) would be impressive if it was believable. They are almost certainly making big strides in energy efficiency but it is unlikely as reported. Despite these cred issues however, it is clear that the Chinese economy is not going backward.But even if they aren't as steep as they have been over any of the past 15 months, new house prices in China are still falling. Only 12 of the 70 largest cities had prices that held basically unchanged however. But for resales, none were in that category. The lure of housing speculation in China is but a distant memory. For most developers that is trouble. But pockets like in Shenzhen may be seeing a bit of a shine.In the EU, industrial production surprised with a good +3.4% gain in May, far better than expected and continuing the 2025 expansion. The gains were even stronger in the euro areaSo it will be no surprise to learn that German ZEW sentiment seems to be in full recovery mode; this data for July, so those industrial production gains have likely continued.In Australia, the Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey showed a third consecutive rise in July, although a small one. Despite the surprise no-cut by the RBA recently, most consumers still expect interest rates to move lower from here. But they remain uncertain about the outlook for the overall economy and jobs. Housing-related sentiment dipped slightly but price expectations remained high.And staying in Australia, the RBA has reached the preliminary view that it would be in the public interest to remove surcharging on eftpos, Mastercard and Visa cards. They also want to lower the cap on interchange fees paid by businesses, and require card networks and large acquirers to publish the fees they charge. They are now in the 'consultation' phase, which will no doubt involve fierce pushback. Here the Commerce Commission has been looking at the same issues, and will report on the New Zealand changes they want to see, very soon.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.49%, up +6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,327/oz, down -US$22 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are down -50 USc to US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 67.4, and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,421 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. And that takes it back below NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, still just on +/-1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US dollar is falling, and the benchmark US 10 year treasury yield is down also, near a seven week low. These are the key reactions to the easing of Middle East hostilities.But first up today, we should note that the weekly Pulse dairy auction for the two main powder products brought lower prices yer again. The SMP price fell -2.6% from last week's full auction to US$2704/tonne, which the WMP price fell -1.9% tp US$4006/tonne. The represent yet another retreat which essentially cancel the April to May price gains.In the US, Fed boss Powell was at Congress today giving his semiannual Monetary Policy Report. He is back again tomorrow. He repeated that they are in no rush to cut rates, certainly not in July, and that their scenario of two more -25 bps reductions in 2025 remains their current outlook. Their focus is on inflation risks which they still have worries about, not economic growth, and that is helped by a stable labour market.Meanwhile, the weekly Redbook survey of the US retail impulse showed sales volume growth easing lower, the lowest since the April tariff-tax induced price spike in early April. And if you exclude the seasonal dips at the end of 2024/25, this growth is the lowest since March 2024 even with the tariff-tax push effect on retail pricing.The US Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment weakened in June. And this time the weakness spread to 'present conditions'. They report consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded. It is a trend they have been noting since the start of 2025.Also fading was the Richmond Fed's latest factory survey for June. Although new order intakes declined more slowly, it still declined and the order backlogs in the region are now falling faster. Unless they get an improvement in new orders, production cutbacks are looking. And the service sector survey in the same mid-Atlantic states region is no better. In this district too, reshoring is not in evidence.We should also note that credit stress for US commercial real estate is staying unusually high. This extended trouble will force an increasing number of lenders there to book losses, and because the worst losses are coming from the largest buildings, it could be destabilising for some mid-sized banks. There was a large well supported US Treasury bond auction earlier today for their 2 year Note. This delivered a median yield of 3.73%, down from the 3.90% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada, their May inflation rate was reported overnight, unchanged at 1.7%, which was the expected result.Taiwanese retail sales were weaker in May, down -1.6% from the same month a year ago and extending a weaker trend. They were expected to rise marginally. However Taiwanese industrial production was outstandingly strong, up more than +20% from the same month a year ago and extending the April surge.In South Korea, consumer sentiment has improved sharply since the election of a reform-minded new president. Apart from a brief post-pandemic spike, they haven't been this optimistic there since 2017.And in case we don't miss it, the German economy is rising again, gaining in confidence and extending the gains that started in mid 2024. The turnaround hasn't been dramatic, but it has built more than you might have thought.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, and down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,320/oz, and down -US$61 from yesterday.American oil prices are down another -US$4.50 from yesterday at just over US$64.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$67.50/bbl as Middle East security concerns seem to fade.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.2 USc, back up +½c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +10 bps firmer at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at under 67.9 and +20 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,141 and up +3.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Contact us today to learn more about how you can benefit from Financial Resilience! → https://hubs.la/Q035Qlcs0 This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain highlights US Industrial Production, noting it is gaining momentum and is forecasted to improve steadily through 2026. What are the main sectors driving this growth? Are you positioning your business to make the most of the growth ahead? Watch the full episode to learn more!

Tim Bohen focuses on companies impacted by the Israel/Iran conflict and reacts to the latest economic data. “I am very, very bullish America and where it's headed,” he says, and was disappointed by the latest Industrial Production numbers because of that. However, he acknowledges it will take years for manufacturing reshoring to make a noticeable impact. He reflects on his “buy-the-dip” call in April and says he'll keep buying now.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

APAC stocks traded mixed/mostly lower with the region failing to coattail on Wall Street's gains, as geopolitical angst kept risk subdued.US President Trump posted that "Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!" before cutting his G7 trip short, stoking fears of a US military offensive. Sentiment later stabilised after CBS reported that the US is not joining Israel offensively in its military operations against Iran.BoJ maintained its rate at 0.5% as expected via unanimous vote, and is to reduce the amount of monthly JGB purchases by about JPY 200bln each quarter from April 2026 onward (as telegraphed); Tamura dissented on the taper plan.Japanese PM Ishiba and US President Trump did not reach a tariff agreement, but confirmed they are to continue tariff talks, according to Fuji TV.European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.6% after cash closed with gains of 1.0% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include German ZEW, US Export/Import Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, BoJ Press Conference, BoC Minutes, G7 Leaders' Summit, IEA OMR, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump says he wants "a real end," with Iran "giving up entirely" on nukes”, via CBS's Jacobs.US President Trump says the EU is not yet offering a fair deal, there is a chance of a deal with Japan but they are "tough". Pharma tariffs coming soon.Stocks hit as Iran-Israel strikes continue and Trump posts that "everyone" should evacuate Tehran.FX markets in narrow ranges awaiting US Retail Sales; incremental strength in JPY post-BoJ, but Ueda sparked some weakness thereafter.Two-way action for JGBs; USTs just about firmer while EGBs & Gilts reside in the red.Crude moves higher as Trump cuts his G7 trip short and now awaiting developments from the situation in Iran.Looking ahead, US Export/Import Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, BoC Minutes, G7 Leaders' Summit.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the hot-war tensions in the Middle East from Israel's attack on Iran has generated substantial financial market reaction. And a 'hot' war between Israel and Iran could go on for a very long time. The first three days may only be the startThe gold price has jumped. The oil price has soared. Equity prices are falling, although the futures market suggests Wall Street may open tomorrow unchanged. Bond yields are up after an earlier risk-aversion fall. The US dollar has been falling but is now in a wavering phase.Coming up this shortened week locally are a first look at May inflation with the selected price indexes, and on Thursday, Q1-2025 GDP. Expect a +0.7% expansion from Q4-2024. And there will be a full dairy auction on Wednesday.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will remain in focus next week following Israel's strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, heightening fears of a broader regional conflict. Markets will also be closely watching any progress on trade negotiations between the US and its key partners.Meanwhile, attention shifts to the G7 Summit in Canada, where leaders of the world's largest economies will meet to discuss major global challenges. But one not on the formal agenda is the US's trade war with these allies. Of course it will be a hot topic in non-official discussions. Of special interest will be the meeting between Australia's Albanese and Trump.It's also a busy week for monetary policy decisions. The US Federal Reserve (4.50%), People's Bank of China (LPR 3.0%), Bank of Japan (0.5%), and Bank of England (4.25%) are all expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Decisions are also due from central banks in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Taiwan. On the data front, we get China's industrial production and retail sales, and Japan's trade data.Australia's May labour market data will be updated on Thursday. So a lot to absorb this week irrespective of the uncertainties swirling over the hot wars.Bur first in China, their banks extended ¥620 biln in new yuan loans in May, up from ¥280 bln in April, but that was the lowest level for that month since 2005. Despite the monthly rebound, the May new loan figure was way less than the expected ¥850 bln, and even lower than the ¥950 bln in May 2024. Low interest rates are not encouraging lending. The average rate in May was little-changed at 1.55%.Japanese industrial production also fell in April from March, down -1.1%, but remained +0.5% higher than a year ago.Malaysian retail sales were up +4.7% in April from a year ago, but as good as that sounds it is the weakest year-on-year rise since May 2023. And these gains are before inflation, which is running in Malaysia at only +1.4%.In the US was news American consumer sentiment improved in early June from May in the widely-followed University of Michigan survey which was taken June 2-7, 2025. Although this is the first improvement in the past six months, it is off a record low and is still -11% lower than year-ago levels. This survey pre-dates the current crises. And it predates the widespread (2000+) series of well-attended protest rallies in the US (attended by up to 5 mln people), even in the face of an assassination of one Democrat lawmaker and the attempted assassination of another. Given the Proud Boys Telegram chatter, this isn't so surprising.On the US West Coast, container traffic at the large Los Angeles shipping terminals fell in May. Import traffic was down -19% from April, down -9% from a year ago. Export loadings were down -5% from a year ago. (The Long Beach May data isn't available yet but it is likely to be similar.)North of the border, and perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Canadian vehicle purchases rose in April to 195,700, the highest level since June 2019. Perhaps this is boosted by buyers wanting to avoid tariff-related price hikes. The jump was country-wide and was +11% above the year-ago level.Meanwhile Canadian manufacturing sales fell -2.8% in April, with the tariff impacts starting to be felt. It was down -2.7% from a year ago. Recession risks are rising in Canada.EU industrial production sagged in April from March after a strong March gain, but managed to stay marginally higher than year-ago levels. The EU publishes this data on a volume basis, so this is a 'real' gain.Finally we should probably note that the price of lithium carbonate has now crashed -90% from its giddy height in 2022. It is now back to late 2020 levels before the frenzy.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.41%, and unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,430/oz, and down -US$3 from Saturday but up +US$115 from a week ago. In contrast the silver price at US$36.17/oz is little-changed from a week ago.American oil prices are holding higher, although down -50 USc from Saturday at just on US$73/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$74.50/bbl. These are large jumps from a week ago on the war risks. And the full assessment of supply risks are not yet understood, so this price could be volatile this week.The Kiwi dollar is now just under 60.2 USc, down -10 bps from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at over 67.9 and down -20 bps from Saturday (shifted a bit by a fall against the British pound).The bitcoin price starts today at US$105,794 and up +0.6% from Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US downgrade is seeing the trend of higher interest rates extend.And in the US, we have more negative signals. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) "plunged" by -1.0% in April, after declining sharply by -0.8% in March. The LEI has declined by -2.0% in the six-month period ending April and is now just shy of signaling 'recession' they say. But it is actually back lower than in the last Trump presidency when there was recession.At an investor day in New York, the boss of the US's largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, said investors are underestimating geopolitical and inflation risks. “Credit today is a bad risk,” he said earlier today. “The people who haven't been through a major downturn are missing the point about what can happen in credit.”In Canada, their largest province has announced a Budget that prioritises higher spending and larger deficits in the coming year in a direct effort to "protect Ontario". The next federal Canadian budget isn't due until at least September.In China, retail sales rose by +5.1% in April from the same month a year ago, moderating from March's over 1-year high of +5.9% and missing market estimates of +5.5%. But is was one of the still-good data releases from China, one that is in a rising trend and even better because they have virtually no inflation.Another positive data release from China came from their industrial production which grew by a claimed +6.1% in April from a year ago and better than the expected +5.5% gain. However, the latest figure eased from the +7.7% growth recorded in March. Meanwhile, electricity production rose only +0.9% in April, hardly supporting the much stronger industrial production data.China, which regulates the wholesale price of petrol and diesel, announced cuts overnight, to take effect immediately.Meanwhile their national real estate development investment fell sharply yet again, and the residential sector was down -9.6% from April last year. And prices for new, and previously-owned housing are still down sharply on a year-on-year basis even if there are small pockets of regional improvements.Meanwhile, Chinese residents trading foreign stocks or holding offshore accounts are being put on notice as authorities take fuller advantage of cross-border data to trace unreported earnings.In the EU, their economy is projected to grow by +1.1% in 2025 and +1.5% in 2026, and both are downgrades from the levels forecasted last autumn. This is according to the European Commission's Spring outlook. The downgrade is primarily attributed to the impact of rising tariffs and increased uncertainty stemming from recent abrupt shifts in US trade policy. On the inflation front, disinflation is now expected to proceed more rapidly than previously anticipated. Inflation in the Eurozone is projected to ease to 2.1% by mid-2025, reaching the ECB's target earlier than previously expected, and to decline further to 1.7% in 2026. And staying in Europe, we should probably note that BNPL giant Klarna, which also operates in New Zealand, is seeing its losses grow. In Q1-2025 they doubled to -US$100 mln as "consumer credit losses" rose sharply, even as revenue grew.Later today (at 4:30pm NZT), the Australian central bank will review its cash rate target, currently at 4.10%. It is widely expected to be cut by -25 bps to 3.85%. That would put it still above the New Zealand OCR at 3.50% and our official rate is also expected to be cut by -25% mid next week to 3.25%, restoring the differential. But although both cuts are expected and priced in, more attention will focus on the next likely shift. Some see the RBA 'done' at one cut with the next move a rise. Background inflation risks are still elevated there, their labour market isn't suffering, and growth prospects are still there even in the current turbulent world.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.47%, up a mere +3 bps from this time yesterday, but curves are steeper.The price of gold will start today at US$3227/oz, and up +US$25 from yesterday.Oil prices are holding again today at just over US$62.50/bbl in the US but the international Brent price is -50 USc lower at US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.9 USc, up +10 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 67.5 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$105,393 and essentially unchanged from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate however at just under +/-2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

APAC stocks were predominantly lower following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher.US equity futures were lacklustre with participants awaiting comments from Fed Chair Powell and a slew of US data releases.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons, as well as getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, according to a top advisor to the Supreme Leader cited by NBC News.Russian President Putin was not on a list of negotiators the Kremlin published for talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index, UK GDP, EZ Employment & GDP, US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, IEA OMR, Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & de Guindos, Fed Chair Powell & Barr, BoE's Dhingra, Supply from US.Earnings from Applied Materials, Take-Two, Alibaba, Walmart, Deere, Deutsche Telekom, Siemens, Allianz, Merck, Thyssenkrupp, RWE, Siemens, National Grid, United Utilities & Richemont.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European equities are subdued awaiting US data and Fed Chair Powell; US equity futures also tilt lower (ES -0.6%).DXY is subdued and contained whilst havens seen some inflows amid the broader risk tone.Fixed income benchmarks trade slightly firmer into US data and Fed Chair Powell's speech. Crude futures are curtailed by Trump suggesting the US is getting close to a deal with Iran, while metals await data & Powell.Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, IEA OMR, Speakers include ECBʼs de Guindos; Fed Chair Powell & Barr, BoEʼs Dhingra. Earnings from Applied Materials, Take-Two, Alibaba, Walmart, Deere.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Trump's back-down on tariffs came as corporate decision-makers concluded reshoring isn't a good idea. There are few moves to bolster US-based production.But first today, Fed boss Powell spoke overnight and he focused on the challenges they face keeping inflation under control. He noted long-term interest rates are now notably higher, driven mainly by risk premiums rather than shifts in inflation expectations, while estimates of the longer-run neutral policy rate have also risen. He noted the US economy has changed a lot since their last review and warned that inflation might become more volatile in future due to more frequent supply shocks, which will make it harder for central banks to achieve price stability. Throughout his remarks, Powell also stressed the critical role of anchored inflation expectations. Meanwhile US initial jobless claims slipped slightly to 205,200 but that was what seasonal factors accounted for and what analysts were expecting. There are now 1.783 mln people on these benefits, a reduction from last week, but it is up almost +100,000 from this time last year.Maybe surprisingly, American producer prices fell by -0.5% in April, following a revised flat reading in March and defying market expectations of a +0.2% increase. This was the first decline in the PPI since October 2023 and the sharpest drop since April 2020, during the early pandemic period. The retreat was largely driven by a -0.7% fall in service costs, the largest since data collection began in December 2009, and that was due to a -1.6% drop in margins for trade services, because businesses are absorbing much of the impact from higher tariffs. PPI is now up +2.4% from a year ago.Industrial production in the US didn't rise as expected in April. In fact factory output fell -0.4%, reversing the increase in March. And the prospects of shifting significant production "back to the US" seem remote in many diverse categories.There were two regional factory surveys released for May overnight, and both declined somewhat. The NY Fed's Empire State survey reported another modest decline. The Philly Fed's survey for their core rust belt region recorded a sharp improvement, better than the improvement expected. But it is still in decline.In a sign of the times a major lithium battery recycler has entered bankruptcy.US retail sales were little-changed in April, following the upwardly revised +1.7% front-loaded pre-tariff surge in March. 2024 gains mean they are +5.2% higher than year-ago levels.The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in the US fell sharply in May to its the lowest since November 2023 and well below what was expected. Home builders are glum. Current sales conditions fell, sales expectations in the next six months edged lower, and they said traffic of prospective buyers has dropped recently.Meanwhile, housing starts in Canada jumped +30% in April from March and that was well above what was expected. It was their most since June 2023. US tariffs on Canadian softwoods is likely making Canadian house building costs lower.Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders rose +7.7% in April from a year ago, but that growth was a slowing from +11.4% growth in March. But it was the seventh consecutive month of rising machine tool orders. Local orders dropped -5.4% from a year earlier while foreign orders jumped +13.3% on the same basis. India's exports were nothing special in April, certainly not reflective of a rising industrial power. They slipped from March but they were up +9.0% from a year ago due to gains in prior months.In Europe, industrial production rose by +2.6% in March from February, marking the strongest increase since November 2020 and rising from a good +1.1% gain in February. The result easily beat market expectations of a +1.8% rise. The surge was driven primarily by a rebound in output of durable consumer goods.In Australia, they added +75,500 jobs in April, almost 47,500 of them full-time positions. Their employed workforce grew +2.75% in the past year. Their jobless rate eased to 4.1% from 4.3% (although staying at 4.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis which is the metric others report). Inflation pressure plus this strong jobs report might have the RBA re-thinking the wisdom of a rate cut.Bulk freight rates fell -7.0% in the last week to be -18.5% lower than year-ago levels. Container freight rates were also -18.0% lower than year ago levels, but they did rise +8% last week with a surge in outbound cargoes from China across the Pacific on the sudden 'pause' in tariff hikes.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.45%, down -8 bps so far today.The price of gold will start today at US$3218/oz, and up +US$43 from yesterday.Oil prices are -US$2 lower today at just over US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just on US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.7 USc, down -40 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 67.2 and down a net -40 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$104,020 and up +0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just under +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the consequences of US policy changes are now starting to show up in the data.The big overnight news is the Q1-2025 US GDP report. The American economy shrank at an annualised rate of -0.3% in the period, the first retreat since Q1-2022. This was a sharp reversal from +2.4% growth in the previous quarter and well below market expectations of +0.3% growth. A surge in imports was one key factor as businesses rushed to stockpile goods in anticipation of higher costs from the tariff announcements. But that didn't include consumers because their spending growth cooled to 1.8%, the slowest pace since Q2-2023. Federal government spending fell -5.1%, the steepest drop since Q1-2022.That 'cooled' consumer spending reversed in March with a tariff-stocking-up rise for them too (especially for cars) ahead of the April cost increases. PCE inflation cooled a little, but not yet back to mid-2024 levels. Personal disposable income rose less than spending in March.Financial markets reacted negatively to the larger than expected GDP shifts.This weekend we get the April non-farm payrolls report and currently markets expect a smallish rise of +130,000. But that may be an over-estimate. The ADP survey of private business only added +62,000 workers to their payrolls in April, less than half of the downwardly revised 147,000 payrolls in March and well below market expectations of +115,000.April data is weaker than for March, so prospects for Q2-2025 economic activity do not look flash for the giant US economy. US mortgage applications sank again last week, and for a third straight week. A pullback in new orders and production levels in April saw the Chicago PMI contract for its 17th consecutive month.But US pending home sales jumped in March from February, ahead of tariffs which are expected to make new home purchases more expensive. But they are -0.6% lower than year-ago levels which itself was a weak base.And still in the US, it is becoming clearer who will be paying the tariffs. Retail giant Walmart has raised the white flag, telling Chinese suppliers to resume shipments suggesting to them it will 'absorb' the new border costs. Of course they will be passed on to consumers.Across the Pacific, we are looking ahead to the Bank of Japan rate decision later today, although the landscape has changed there and they are unlikely to raise their +0.5% policy rate now.Japan's industrial production was weakish in March, coming in lower than expected from the prior month to be little-changed from March a year ago. At the same time they reported retail sales +3.1% ahead of the same month a year ago which was lower than expected, also with current weakness from February.Nearby, Korea said their industrial production came in better than expected in March although not as strong as for February. Korean March retail sales however gave back a small bit of the outsized rise in February.In China, their May Day holiday starts today and runs to May 5, inclusive. (They were required to work on April 27 (Sunday) to give them five consecutive "days of rest". They may not be resting; travel bookings for domestic trips are up through the roof this year. (Don't forget, in China, the standard working week is 8 hours per day, 40 hours per week, which is a five-day work week (Monday-Friday). However, it's important to note that the 996 work culture, where employees work from 9am to 9pm, six days a week, is a common reality, especially in their tech industry.)Once again the official factory PMI for China came in with a small contraction (a definite slowing), while the private Caixin version came in with a small expansion, although a slight slowing. Separately, the official services PMI came in with a slightly better expansion. In all cases, new order levels retreated.In Europe, the German economy expanded slightly in Q1-2025 from Q4-2024. Inflation was steady in April at 2.2%, and retail sales were up +2.2% on a volume basis from March year-ago levels, but little change from February.That all helped the overall EU GDP to expand +1.4% in Q1-2025 from a year ago, up +0.4% from Q4-2024. It is rate that the EU outperforms the US, and this isn't so much because the EU is rising, more that the US is falling.Whichever way you sliced it, Australia's inflation came in at 2.4% in March from a year ago. That was true for the quarterly CPI, and the monthly inflation indicator. Both were little-changed from the respective prior releases. There's now talk of a post-election rate cut from the current 4.10% cash rate target.The pre-tariff shoring up saw air cargo demand spike in March, led by activity in Asia/Pacific, and the US. Come April and May, this spike is expected to reverse quite sharply. Passenger air travel is flattening right out, especially in North America. But it is being held up by strong China and India domestic demand, and still-good Asia/Pacific international demand.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, unchanged bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3309/oz, and down -US$10 from yesterday.Oil prices are down more than -US$2 at just under US$58.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is down more than -US$3, now just over US$61/bbl. These are four year lows, down to level last seen in April 2021.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc, unchanged from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 52.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.6 and essentially unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today down -1.3% from yesterday at US$94,182. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news gold has taken off, hitting yet another new all-time record high as fear stalks markets today and risk is definitely 'off'. But the NZD is rising. As we publish, markets are moving quickly so this snapshot will date just as quickly.But first in the US, mortgage applications fell -8.0% last week from the same week a year ago, with the refinance component down a rather sharp -12% on the same basis. These retreats came as benchmark mortgage rates rose +20 bps from a week agoA rush to buy cars ahead of the April tariff taxes delivered a boost to March retail sales that was even more than expected. Without those car sales, March retail was barely improved, and that does not adjust for price inflation so in volume terms, core retail sales are declining now. That trend will have global implications.American industrial production rose +1.3% from a year ago and this does adjust for price changes, so a small improvement. But it did shrink in March compared to February.Sentiment by American house builders was little-changed in March from February, but it is -21% lower than a year ago, and -13% lower than two years ago. In fact, excluding the pandemic, you have to go back to the GFC to find it this poor in a March month. That is not good because it is the start of their Spring selling season. Survey results show that tariff taxes are not being paid by importing countries, rather by the builders at this stage. As profits dive, that will be passed on to buyers next.There was a US Treasury 20 year bond auction earlier today and demand was slightly lower so the median yield rose to 4.75%. That is a rise from the 4.59% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Fed boss Powell was talking earlier today, saying that tariffs pose a real challenge to meet their dual inflation+jobs mandates. Inflation pressures are here now which argues for rate settings to rise, while economic growth is expected to leak away soon hurting jobs, arguing for a rate cut. He said they will "wait for greater clarity" to see where the dominant pressure comes from.These comments were not the magical thinking equity markets wanted to hear, and the realities of what faces the US economy has seen Wall Street pull back today. The Nasdaq is down -3.9%, the S&P500 down -2.8%. The Dow is down -1.8%. Gold is the safe-haven parking lot.In Canada, they are also waiting. Rather than continue with their rate cut track, the Bank of Canada has paused that track, keeping its policy rate at 2.75% as they too watch inflation rise and economic activity leak away. Interestingly, the TSX is only down -0.3%, hit far less than Wall Street.Across the Pacific, Japan's February machinery orders rebounded sharply, rising well above market expectations for a modest +0.8% increase to its highest level in a year. Manufacturing orders rose +3%, while non-manufacturing orders jumped +11.4%. This rise matches the separate machine tool order data for March which was also up sharply. And these first see prosperity ahead; The Reuters Tankan sentiment index rose sharply in April. But the same firms surveyed were gloomy for the months further out in 2025.China claimed its economy grew at a +5.4% rate in Q1-2025 (real), the same rate as for Q4-2024. They said retail sales were up +5.9% (nominal) in March from a year ago, better than the +4.0% in February and the best rise since December 2023 which benefited from a low base. They also said industrial production was up +7.7% (nominal) in March, far better than the +5.6% expected and far better than the +5.9% February gain. Electricity production was only up +1.8% (real) year on year in March, so either they are making spectacular energy efficiency gains, or something other than electricity powers their industry, or something doesn't add up. Anecdotal reports from many regions don't paint quite the picture these official stats paint.Meanwhile, Chinese new home prices in March edged lower from February, but there are range of changes in the 70 top Chinese cities. Still only Shanghai shows a year-on-year gain. Among the same cities, none show any gain for resales of existing houses and some declines are now as much as -11% (Jinhua, 7 mln population, and Tangshan, 7.7 mln).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27%, down another -6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today sharply higher at a new record of US$3337/oz, and up +US$108 from yesterday or +3.3%.Oil prices have firmed marginally, up +50 USc from yesterday to be now just over US$62/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just over US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.3 USc, up +20 bps from yesterday at this time and still the highest since mid-December. The fall of the USD embeds. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we down -40 bps from yesterday at just on 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 67.6 and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,854 and holding again, down less than -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. This podcast will take a break over the Easter holiday weekend and we will do this again Tuesday.

“Watchdog” NGO attacks ivermectin as quack cancer fix—while studies support its potential benefits; China tariffs will impact supplements for humans—but also key nutritional ingredients for food, agriculture; Supreme Court rules on flavored vape products aimed at kids—as 17 year old cheerleader sidelined with “popcorn lung”; Tips for dealing with spring allergies.

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 14th of April, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what's coming next!

In this episode of Uncommon Sense with Ginny Robinson, I'm giving my take (to the best of my ability—because I'm not a tariff expert and neither are most of the people chiming in right now) on Trump's gutsy new tariff move. It's the one that's got half the country cheering and the other half clutching their pearls. While the media yells “economic suicide,” I'm here to suggest that this strategy might actually work—but not overnight. We'll talk about the possibility of long-term gain, the reality of short-term discomfort, and the cultural obsession with instant results when what's often required is patience. I will also go over our collective short attention spans and why longer attention spans are needed for understanding complex issues like this. Every answer won't fit in a 15 second soundbite. At the end of the day, we'll have to pray, wait, and see. Some of the smartest plays take time to unfold.—https://noblegoldinvestments.com/learn/gold-and-silver-guide/?utm_campaign=21243613394&utm_source=g&utm_medium=cpc&utm_content=&utm_term=noble%20gold&seg_aprod=&ad_id=698073353663&oid=2&affid=1&utm_source=google&affiliate_source=googleads_brand_bmbc&utm_term=noble%20gold&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAADQ2DzJSJ_mi5cJo8dO2FNUs7uNy-&gclid=CjwKCAjwktO_BhBrEiwAV70jXtjSCyioSM2Hz1McTAlR3f8t3KCDDN3-XBWLaIzwJmiEGe0ztxIk5RoCnM0QAvD_BwE

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are plenty of bumps in the economic road to note today.But first up today, there was another full dairy auction overnight, one that analysts had been nervous about and the derivatives market saw downside risks (on the uncertainties of how dairy product distortions would fare in the growing tariff disputes). In the end overall prices were unchanged - so no bump here - which the industry will take as a 'win'. But that is in USD terms. In NZD terms it certainly wasn't with prices down -3.3% overall as the USD weakened. Butter inched higher, and to a new record level. So did cheese. But WMP was little-changed, and SMP fell -0.4%. China was in there buying although not with notable enthusiasm.All eyes now turn to Fonterra's interim report on Friday, and the expectations are for only minor tweaks to their payout levels over that they have already announced at record highs.In the US, the retail impulse tracking though the Redbook index still shows a strong year-on-year +5.2% gain compared to the same week a year ago, but the advantage is fading and has done so each week in March so far. We don't get a week-on-week reading but for that year-on-year gain to fall from +6.6% three week ago, there must be a sharpish recent fall away.American housing starts unexpectedly jumped +11.2% in February from January, but that was just making back the -11.5% fall the prior month. The February 2025 build rate was at 1.501 mln units whereas the February buodl date was at 1,546 mln units so a -2.9% retreat on that basis.It was a similar story for US industrial production - up more in February from January (+0.7%) than expected (+0.3%), but the gains were less (+1.4%) than year-ago levels (+1.7%).There was a US Treasury 20 year bond auction earlier today and it brought less support, and at a median yield of 4.60%. The better supported prior equivalent event a month ago was at a median yield of 4.77%.Canada reported its CPI inflation rate at 2.6%, which was a notable rise from their January level of 1.9% and an expectation of 2.2%. It is probably only going to get worse from here due to the snarky tariff war the Americans started and the Canadians collective reactions. Their monetary policy decisions are based on "trimmed mean" rates, and they only moved up slightly.Across the Atlantic in Germany, and by a two thirds majority, their parliament has approved a massive €1 tln funding increase to allow it to build its defence capability and support Ukraine. It is a massive change in attitude to their fiscal policy direction.In the Pacific, Indonesia's stock market halted trading yesterday for the first time since 2020 after their market plunged more than -7% from Monday's close. Substantial concerns over economic stability and consumer sentiment are behind the move.In China the property sector woes are far from over. Another major developer, Sunac, has issued a major 'profit warning', actually a major warning about huge losses. Demand for its projects is very weak.In Australia, a superannuation fund has been convicted of greenwashing and ordered to pay a fine of more than AU$10 mln for making false claims about how it invested funds.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. And we should probably note that the Tesla share price is down another -6% so far today.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3036/oz and up a net +US$42 from yesterday, and another all-time high.Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just under US$67/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just under US$70.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.2 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday and maintaining its recent gains. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.4 AUc and a new three-month high. Against the euro we are unchanged at 53.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 67.3, and marginally firmer.The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,895 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

2025 ITR Economics Summit→ https://hubs.la/Q035QkjZ0 Contact us today to learn more about how you can benefit from Financial Resilience! → https://hubs.la/Q035Qlcs0 This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain shares encouraging news – US Industrial Production is approaching Phase B, Accelerating Growth, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 and 2026 for the industrial economy. While it is normal to feel the negative effects from the past year despite this positive trend, tune in to discover how you can best prepare for the coming growth ahead!

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news retaliation on retaliation seems to be the order of the day in the US tariff policy - exactly has observers had expected. The whole thing is a no-win battle and a repeat of a history lesson that failed the first time - one it should be noted that resulted in the 1929 Depression.Both Canada and the EU responded with retaliatory tariffs on imports from the US. Washington threatened more on them for responding.Separately, in the US, lower energy costs brought their CPI inflation rate down to 2.8% in February from 3.0% in January. This was a better result than expected. A year ago, CPI inflation was running at 3.2% and decreasing, when it dropped to 2.4% in September.But no-one expects the dip to last, as the tariff costs get passed on to consumers.Another fall in the long term US benchmark interest rates has brought another healthy rise in mortgage applications hast week, up at an +11% annual rate from the prior week. Again it was a continuing sharp surge in refinance activity (+16%), that drove the increase, rather than new lending (+4%).There was another well-supported US Treasury bond auction overnight, this one for their ten year maturity. It resulted in a median yield of 4.27%, sharply lower than the 4.56% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Safe haven demand is strong.The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by -25 bps to 2.75% in its March decision, as expected and previously signaled, to mark -225 bps in rate cuts since the start of its loosening cycle in June 2024. More rate cuts are expected, especially now they can see a major economic bump coming from the tariff war.Japanese PPI is still rising at +4.0% year-on-year in February, reinforcing how embedded inflation has now become in Japan. And probably at a higher level than they are comfortable with. It's the sixth straight month it has exceeded 3%.In China, their national set-piece policy meetings adopted a 4% to GDP debt limit, but even local observers pointed out this will end up far higher than what will turn out in 2025. They will need massive new debt to achieve their 5% growth target. That much more debt creates a local government honey-pot rush.India's CPI inflation rate fell sharply in February, down from 4.30% in January to 3.60% in February, a fall larger than the 4.0% expected. The pace of the drop in food price inflation drove the moderation. This will probably lead to more rate cuts by their central bank.On the other hand, India's industrial production rose faster than expected. It was expected to be +3.5% higher in January than a year ago matching the December expansion. But in fact it came in +5.0% higher.In Greenland, the 56,000 mostly Inuit voters have chosen the opposition centre-right, pro-business party as their new government. And declared they don't want to be American (or Danes, for that matter).Also rising was Russian CPI inflation, which came in at +10.1% in February, up from 9.9% in January, driven by the +11.7% rise in food prices.In an extension of targeting its 'friends', the US confirmed that there will be no exemptions for tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium. Of course, the US still expects those it offends to keep buying US products and services.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just over US$2933/oz and up another +US$17 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$1 at just over US$67.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just under US$71/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.3 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are unchanged at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 66.5, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$82,161 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Joe Cantu provides the Cantu Tactical Wealth Management 2025 Stock Market forecast as of February 16, 2025.  He shows charts of the GDP, Gross Domestics Product, report for the United States.  He display several other economic reports such as Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Employment.  The Magnificent seven stocks are discussed with the performance for 2024.   There is an interesting comparison of the S&P 500 Size weighted INDEX and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted INDEX for 2024 performance.  This is a good video for retirement accounts and money management ideas.Link: "What is An ETF?" https://youtu.be/6ogG3qzF15EMagnificent 7 links: "What Are the Magnificent Seven Stocks?", https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/investing/magnificent-7-stocks?utmhttps://youtu.be/UrYxlJ31r2I Youtube Link:

S&P Futures are trading slightly lower this morning with the pause in implementations of tariffs remaining the key headline. The key here is that it allows countries the opportunity to negotiate trade barriers ahead of any tariff action being implemented. Later this morning there are economic reports on Retail Sales and Industrial Production. ABNB, DKNG, FROG, GT, ROKU & WYNN are all higher after releasing their earnings reports. Monday is a holiday, on Tuesday morning watch for earnings from BIDU, FLR, GPC & MDT. The House Budget Committee passed a Budget Resolution and it will not go to the full House for a vote. Hong Kong markets surged as China's President is meeting with business leaders in an effort to expand growth. Oil prices are moving higher as tariff announcements are delayed.

European bourses & US futures began the session mixed but have deteriorated on geopols; Luxury lifted by Hermes post-earnings.USD remains pressured post-Trump tariff announcement, Antipodeans lead.Bonds retain a bearish bias but are off lows as geopolitics drives recent price actionGas continues to deflate, crude rangebound & metals advance.Russia has said its officials are not attending the Munich conference, US VP Vance & Ukraine's Zelensky set to meet at 11:00EST; recent remarks from Zelensky have tempered recent optimismLooking ahead, US Import/Export Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation & Manufacturing Output, BoC SLOOS, Speakers including & Fed's Logan.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump signed a memorandum to introduce a reciprocal tariff plan; delayed implementation provided optimism regarding negotiations.APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive handover from Wall St; S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed with gains of over 1%.European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.8% on Thursday.USD is steady after yesterday's heavy selling. EUR/USD trades around 1.0450 and Cable sits above 1.2550.Looking ahead, highlights include Germany Wholesale Price Index, EZ Employment, US Import/Export Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation & Manufacturing Output, BoC SLOOS, Speakers including ECB's Panetta & Fed's Logan, Earnings from Moderna, Hermes, Safran, Segro & NatWest.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Geoff Bailey, Logistics Project Manager at minerals giant Imerys, describes the company's operations and the wide variety of end customers using silicates and other minerals in a conversation with Craig and JP. We discuss the importance of strategic site selection and transportation networks in bringing minerals to market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

APAC stocks were mixed in mostly rangebound trade after the uninspiring handover from Wall St and despite encouraging Chinese GDP and activity data.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy with only mild support seen after GDP, Industrial Production & Retail Sales beat expectations with China's economy growing 5.4% Y/Y (exp. 5.0%) in Q4 and by 5.0% (exp. 4.9%) for 2024.DXY lacked conviction following the headwinds from a dovish Fed Waller; USD/JPY initially languished at its lowest in nearly a month; Antipodeans saw a muted reaction to Chinese data.Israel agreed to the Gaza hostage deal and the cabinet is to meet on Friday, according to Israeli media; Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said he will resign from the government if the Gaza ceasefire deal is approved.European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed with gains of 1.5% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Industrial Production, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, Comments from ECB's Cipollone, Earnings from SLB, Fastenal, Truist, State Street & Citizens.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

This special episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 17:00 UK time on Friday, the 10th of January after U.S. monthly payrolls were released.Highlights of This Week's Macro Trends: - U.S. Economy: A surprise surge in U.S. payrolls (+256K) with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Hawkish commentary from Fed officials underscores inflation risks, while the steepening U.S. yield curve hints at continued equity volatility. - Global Markets: Chinese deflationary fears deepen, with CPI at +0.1% and PPI at -2.4%, while German industrial orders plummet (-5.4% MoM). In the UK, 30-year gilt yields hit their highest since 1998, adding to concerns of a potential bond crisis. - Commodities: Oil markets start the year higher, gold resumes its upward trend, and commodities across the board show signs of recovery. - Bitcoin and Equities: Bitcoin trades precariously, risking a fall below $91,370, while Nasdaq volume surges with record-breaking trades. Key Data Releases Ahead: - Tuesday: U.S. PPI, NFIB Small Business Optimism - Wednesday: U.S. CPI, UK CPI, PPI - Thursday: U.S. Retail Sales, UK Monthly GDP, Industrial Production - Friday: U.S. Industrial Production, UK Retail Sales, China GDP Join the conversation to uncover how these developments could shape markets in the week ahead. Don't miss out on this special edition of Macro Mondays LIVE on a Friday! 

Alex Langer, President and CEO of Sierra Madre Gold And Silver (TSXV: SM) (OTCQX: SMDRF), joins me to review the news out December 10th announcing industrial production at the La Guitarra Mine and processing plant, in Mexico; with commercial production slated for Q1 of 2025. The La Guitarra Mine complex is a permitted, past-producing underground mine, which includes a 500 t/d processing facility that operated until mid-2018; which was purchased from First Majestic Silver (TSX: AG) (NYSE: AG) in 2023, and just went into test mining on June 25th of this year.   The plant has been operating at 86% of the milling circuit nameplate capacity, or 516 wet metric tonnes per day, for the last two months, exceeding the engineering standard of 80% for 30 days necessary to declare industrial commercial production. Alex shares the milling throughput has been just over 500 tpd in mid to late December, so the announcement of commercial production should be imminent.   Production statistics for the last two months:   October: 13,208 wet tonnes of economically interesting vein material processed, producing 296.84 dry tonnes of concentrate, containing 21,186 ounces of silver and 295.3 ounces of gold. November: 13,064 wet tonnes processed, producing 317.7 dry tonnes of concentrate, containing 22,917 ounces of silver and 363.3 ounces of gold.   Alex then lays out the envisioned plan is to run the mill at 500 tpd most of next year, at the slated commercial production throughput. However, he then also shares the pathway forward where a modest amount of equipment can be purchased and installed to grow the mill throughput to 650 TPD in 2026, and then all the way up to 1,000+ TPD by the end of 2027.  In addition to the potential of growth through production, we also discuss the leverage that a silver and gold producer like Sierra Madre will have to the potential of rising metals prices in 2025 and 2026.   Next we shift over into the larger growth vision of the company, as it will turn it's it focus to exploring this district scale land package the end of next year, funded through organically generated revenues.  The property hosts 8 different past-producing mines, with the first 2 priorities being to explore around the El Rincon and Mina de Agua mines.   Additionally, there is a non-compliant 17 million ounce historic resource at the Nazareno Mine, and also solid underground infrastructure at the nearby high-grade Coloso Mine, that First Majestic had put quite a bit of sunk cost into already. Moving the Coloso Mine back into production will be another area of future expansion, which could see supplementary production complimenting that out of La Guitarra as soon as April of 2025.   If you have any questions for Alex regarding Sierra Madre Gold and Silver, then please email us at either Shad@kereport.com or Fleck@kereport.com.   In full disclosure, Shad is a shareholder of Sierra Madre Gold & Silver at the time of this recording.    Click here to follow along with the latest news from Sierra Madre Gold & Silver

Jerome Powell's rate cut, market drops, economic risks, inflation, and the future of the economy.Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldFor 20% off your Momentous order, head to https://livemomentous.com and use code GOLD.Laughing Cats https://open.spotify.com/artist/2f3z6IPGfomCl9FsJeyb8dIn this milestone 1000th episode of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast, Peter broadcasts from an unconventional setup due to technical issues, as he covers a dramatic day in the markets. Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve announces a 25 basis points interest rate cut to meet market expectations, but the stock market reacts negatively with significant losses. Peter discusses the historic losing streak in the Dow, investor optimism around speculative assets, and the financial risks posed by an expensive market amidst rising inflation and interest rates. He critiques Jerome Powell's perception of a strong U.S. economy and labor market, highlighting negative data revisions and continuing economic vulnerabilities. Peter also addresses the implications of rising U.S. deficits, government spending, and a surging dollar on global inflation. He predicts further turbulence for the housing and financial markets, the potential for a bear market, and the likelihood of resumed Fed easing measures. Schiff concludes with insights on gold and silver investments, market disconnects, and political dynamics impacting economic policies.

Mining Stock Daily provides an update on Sierra Madre Gold and Silver's La Guitarra Mine, discussing the recent announcement of industrial production and the path towards commercial production. The discussion highlights production numbers, market valuation, and future projections for the company, including exploration plans and alignment with shareholders.

Collective Mining has discovered a new silver zone at Guayabales. Newcore Gold and Arizona Sonoran Copper has met test results to report. Defiance Silver published a mineral resource estimate for Tepal. Fortuna Mining updated its Mineral Reserves and Resource at Séguéla. Kingfisher Metals announced a financing. Sierra Madre Gold and Silver announced industrial production has begun at the Guitarra mine processing plant in Estado de Mexico. This episode of Mining Stock Daily is brought to you by...  Arizona Sonoran Copper Company (ASCU:TSX) is focused on developing its brownfield copper project on private land in Arizona. The Cactus Mine Project is located less than an hour's drive from the Phoenix International airport. Grid power and the Union Pacific Rail line situated at the base of the Cactus Project main road. With permitted water access, a streamlined permitting framework and infrastructure already in place, ASCU's Cactus Mine Project is a lower risk copper development project in the infrastructure-rich heartland of Arizona.For more information, please visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.arizonasonoran.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Vizsla Silver is focused on becoming one of the world's largest single-asset silver producers through the exploration and development of the 100% owned Panuco-Copala silver-gold district in Sinaloa, Mexico. The company consolidated this historic district in 2019 and has now completed over 325,000 meters of drilling. The company has the world's largest, undeveloped high-grade silver resource. Learn more at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://vizslasilvercorp.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Minera Alamos is a gold developer and producer with its first low capex mine, Santana, continuing to work through start-up development. The company is also advancing the Cerro de Oro project through the permitting process. Minera is built around its operating team which brought 4 mines into production in Mexico over the last 13 years. It is fully funded with over $20-million dollars in working capital. Learn more at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mineraalamos.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

S&P Futures are trading lower this morning in a reaction to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the Fed is not in a rush to lower rates. Put volumes soar in drug stocks as President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic and critic of federal health agencies, to be his Secretary of Health and Human Services. Two key economic reports due out this morning, Retail Sales and Industrial Production. SEC filings displaying position adjustments at major funds continue to come in, AAPL is seeing an elevated number of firms existing positions in the last quarter. In Europe, stocks have gone from flat two lower as anxiety builds ahead of the U.S. markets open. Oil prices are slightly lower due to global demand concerns.

Weakness in today's Industrial Production print is one indicator that Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders says create bumps in the Fed's road ahead. Even in stronger reports like Retail Sales, weaker sales in electronics can create trouble for the holiday shopping season. Liz Ann also looks into the connection between stocks and yields. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Is the Fed's latest rate cut a sign of turbulent times ahead or a smart move to sustain growth?In this week's episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, examine the Federal Reserve's significant decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (or half a percentage point) — the first reduction since March 2020. This pivotal move carries major implications for investors, the economy, and overall market sentiment. Ryan and Sonu explore the reasoning behind the Fed's policy shift and explain what it means for those managing portfolios in today's financial landscape.Are we looking at a new phase of economic momentum, or are there hidden risks on the horizon? The hosts offer a detailed analysis, along with practical advice for financial advisors and investors adjusting their strategies in response to this new economic reality.Key Highlights:Federal Reserve's Rate Cut: The Fed's first interest rate reduction in over three years is framed as a strategic risk management tool designed to stabilize employment and promote sustained growth rather than a reaction to looming recession fearsResilient Economic Data: Despite the rate cut, key sectors like industrial production and retail sales continue to show strength. Robust growth in high-tech industries and online shopping underscores the overall resilience of the economyConsumer Debt and Health: While consumer debt has hit record highs, it remains manageable. Low delinquency rates and minimal bankruptcy filings suggest that household finances remain relatively stableStock Market Gains: Recent stock market gains are driven by strong corporate profit growth rather than inflated valuations. With healthy corporate balance sheets and expanding profit margins, the outlook for continued market growth remains positiveHousing Market Rebound: Although mortgage rates remain high, improvements in housing permits and starts suggest that the Fed's rate cuts are beginning to stimulate activity in the housing sector, a key driver of economic growthBond Market Reactions: Long-term treasury yields have risen despite the rate cut — a positive signal indicating confidence in the economy's future growth rather than fears of a potential recessionFuture Market Outlook: Historical data shows that markets often perform well after major Fed rate cuts, particularly when supported by strong economic momentum, as is currently the caseAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the labor market, industrial production, retail sales, the Consumer Price Index, corporate earnings, and the upcoming Key Wealth National Call.Speakers: Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:31 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 10th declined to 227,000, down 7,000 from the week prior02:00 – U.S. industrial production declined 0.6% for July, as a preliminary read02:32 – Retail sales reported above expectations at an increase of 1.0% month-over-month for July03:07 – The inflation print for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported at 2.9% year-over-year for July; excluding food and energy, the report came in at 3.2% 07:17 – Based on the favorable CPI report, the market is anticipating the Fed may not have to begin cutting rates in an aggressive manner and could begin cutting rates only by 25 basis points as soon as September 13:05 – While earnings haven't had any recent record highs, expectations still continue to heighten; even though the economy is slowing, it is still growing16:56 – Final comments highlighting the upcoming Key Wealth National Call Wednesday, September 4th at 1:00pm EST. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: "You're Killin' Me Smalls!" Will Small Caps Ever Outperform Again | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Text us your financial questions!Henssler Money Talks — July 20, 2024Season 38, Episode 29This week on "Money Talks," Research Analyst Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, is joined by Managing Associate D.J. Barker, CWS®, and Senior Associate Logan Daniel, CFP®, CRPC® to cover Tech's mid-week tumble and economic releases including June's Producer Price Index, Retail Sales and the Fed's Beige Books. D.J. and Logan discuss an investor whose wealth is tied up in illiquid assets like real estate, fine art, or jewelry. They discuss how these assets may be hard to sell quickly if funds are needed and how to diversify to increase liquidity. The financial Experts also answer listeners' questions on pension plan required minimum distributions and if the AI trend will cause a resurgence in robo advisers. Timestamps and Chapters00:00 Market Roundup: July 15 – July 19, 202422:28 Case Study:  Holding Illiquid Assets34:01 Q&A Time: Pension RMDs and Robo AdvisersFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the monthly retail sales, industrial production, the Fed's Beige Book report, unemployment data, the equities market, and the bond market.Speakers: Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesTim McDonough, Senior Portfolio Manager 02:22 – Monthly retail sales came in at 0.0% for June, which signifies a slowing in consumer spending04:39 – Though there appears to be a slow-down within the economy – based on the consumer spending and employment data – it does not seem to be stalling07:52 – Understanding what caused the shift within the equities market, as returns for the Nasdaq are flat, the S&P 500 is only up 1.5%, midcap stocks are up 4.0%, and commercial real estate is up 8.0% since the inflection point this month14:05 – An update on the municipal bond market; also, after the CPI report was released, and the overall bond market is preparing for an upcoming rate cut, there has been an uptick in new issuance of bonds, and close to $11 billion new issuance of municipal bonds17:31 - Final comments about continuing to stay diversified and investing in quality portfolios Additional ResourcesKey Questions: Private Equity: What Else Do I Need to Know? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

From Wall Street to Main Street, the latest on the markets and what it means for your money. Updated regularly on weekdays, featuring CNBC expert analysis and sound from top business newsmakers. Anchored and reported by CNBC's Jessica Ettinger.

htt Sarah Kaye has always been drawn to the tactile world of 3D creation. Fond memories of her mum's homemade play-dough and her insistence on clay projects in art class foreshadowed her future path. Sarah studied Product Design at Parsons School of Design and dug deeply into her minor in Ceramic for Industrial Production under the guidance of  Marek Cecula. However, recognizing the practicalities of life after graduation, Sarah ventured into advertising as a Strategic Planner, where she discovered unexpected parallels of the design process and understanding consumer behavior - thinking about product use and the consumer's experince of them. In Seattle, Sarah was accepted to the two year Pottery Northwest residency program, the last group of residents to be guided by the delight that is Wally Bivens. Starbucks recruited Sarah for a project while still in the program there, as did a local espresso machine manufacturer. Twelves years later, SKaye Ceramics is based in Seattle's Georgetown and Sarah has close ties to the coffee community who have been the patron saints of her small business. http://ThePottersCast.com/1023

Henssler Money Talks – April 20, 2024 Season 38, Episode 16 This week on “Money Talks,” Chief Investment Officer Troy Harmon, CFA, CVA, is joined by Senior Associate Michael Griffin, CFP®, and Associate Giuliana Barbagelata, CFP® to cover the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production. Michael and Giuliana highlight some of the financial questions and moves that investors often have after tax season. The financial experts also answer listeners' questions on paying estate tax and if IRAs are “judgement proof.” Timestamps and Chapters 00:00 Market Roundup: April 15 – April 19, 202423:46 Case Study: Financial Moves Coming Out of Tax Season35:02 Q&A Time: Estate Tax and if IRAs are “Judgement Proof” Follow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en  X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

Stocks rise; auto manufacturing rebounds after strike resolution; services sector activity picks up; hiring quickens in December.

Colombia continues its recovery from last week's cyberattacks. AI training data is accidentally published to GitHub. The cyberespionage techniques of Earth Lusca. Clorox blames product shortages on a cyber attack. Cybersecurity incidents in industrial environments. Where the wild bots are. Joe Carrigan looks at top level domain name exploitation. Our guest is Kristen Bell from GuidePoint Security with a look at vulnerability vs. exploitability. And there's talk of potential Russia-DPRK cooperation in cyberspace. For links to all of today's stories check out our CyberWire daily news briefing: https://thecyberwire.com/newsletters/daily-briefing/12/179 Selected reading. More than 50 Colombian state, private entities hit by cyberattack -Petro (Reuters)  Colombia Mulls Legal Action Against US Firm Targeted In Cyber Attack (Barron's) Microsoft mitigated exposure of internal information in a storage account due to overly-permissive SAS token (Microsoft Security Response Center) Microsoft AI Researchers Expose 38TB of Data, Including Keys, Passwords and Internal Messages (SecurityWeek) Earth Lusca Employs New Linux Backdoor, Uses Cobalt Strike for Lateral Movement (Trend Micro)  Chinese hackers have unleashed a never-before-seen Linux backdoor (Ars Technica) The Clorox Company FORM 8-K (US Securities and Exchange Commission)  Clorox Warns of Product Shortages Following Cyberattack (Wall Street Journal) Clorox warns of product shortages, profit hit from August cyberattack (The Street)  Can't find the right Clorox product? A recent cyberattack is causing some shortages (USA Today)  Clorox warns of product shortages after cyberattack (Fox Business)  As flu season looms, hackers force a shortage of Clorox products (Fortune) New Research Finds Cyberattacks Against Critical Infrastructure on the Rise, State-affiliated Groups Responsible for Nearly 60% (Business Wire) Death By a Billion Bots (Netacea) Russian and North Korea artillery deal paves the way for dangerous cyberwar alliance (EconoTimes)  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices