Podcasts about Industrial production

APAC stocks were predominantly lower following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher.US equity futures were lacklustre with participants awaiting comments from Fed Chair Powell and a slew of US data releases.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons, as well as getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, according to a top advisor to the Supreme Leader cited by NBC News.Russian President Putin was not on a list of negotiators the Kremlin published for talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index, UK GDP, EZ Employment & GDP, US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, IEA OMR, Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & de Guindos, Fed Chair Powell & Barr, BoE's Dhingra, Supply from US.Earnings from Applied Materials, Take-Two, Alibaba, Walmart, Deere, Deutsche Telekom, Siemens, Allianz, Merck, Thyssenkrupp, RWE, Siemens, National Grid, United Utilities & Richemont.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European equities are subdued awaiting US data and Fed Chair Powell; US equity futures also tilt lower (ES -0.6%).DXY is subdued and contained whilst havens seen some inflows amid the broader risk tone.Fixed income benchmarks trade slightly firmer into US data and Fed Chair Powell's speech. Crude futures are curtailed by Trump suggesting the US is getting close to a deal with Iran, while metals await data & Powell.Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, IEA OMR, Speakers include ECBʼs de Guindos; Fed Chair Powell & Barr, BoEʼs Dhingra. Earnings from Applied Materials, Take-Two, Alibaba, Walmart, Deere.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Trump's back-down on tariffs came as corporate decision-makers concluded reshoring isn't a good idea. There are few moves to bolster US-based production.But first today, Fed boss Powell spoke overnight and he focused on the challenges they face keeping inflation under control. He noted long-term interest rates are now notably higher, driven mainly by risk premiums rather than shifts in inflation expectations, while estimates of the longer-run neutral policy rate have also risen. He noted the US economy has changed a lot since their last review and warned that inflation might become more volatile in future due to more frequent supply shocks, which will make it harder for central banks to achieve price stability. Throughout his remarks, Powell also stressed the critical role of anchored inflation expectations. Meanwhile US initial jobless claims slipped slightly to 205,200 but that was what seasonal factors accounted for and what analysts were expecting. There are now 1.783 mln people on these benefits, a reduction from last week, but it is up almost +100,000 from this time last year.Maybe surprisingly, American producer prices fell by -0.5% in April, following a revised flat reading in March and defying market expectations of a +0.2% increase. This was the first decline in the PPI since October 2023 and the sharpest drop since April 2020, during the early pandemic period. The retreat was largely driven by a -0.7% fall in service costs, the largest since data collection began in December 2009, and that was due to a -1.6% drop in margins for trade services, because businesses are absorbing much of the impact from higher tariffs. PPI is now up +2.4% from a year ago.Industrial production in the US didn't rise as expected in April. In fact factory output fell -0.4%, reversing the increase in March. And the prospects of shifting significant production "back to the US" seem remote in many diverse categories.There were two regional factory surveys released for May overnight, and both declined somewhat. The NY Fed's Empire State survey reported another modest decline. The Philly Fed's survey for their core rust belt region recorded a sharp improvement, better than the improvement expected. But it is still in decline.In a sign of the times a major lithium battery recycler has entered bankruptcy.US retail sales were little-changed in April, following the upwardly revised +1.7% front-loaded pre-tariff surge in March. 2024 gains mean they are +5.2% higher than year-ago levels.The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in the US fell sharply in May to its the lowest since November 2023 and well below what was expected. Home builders are glum. Current sales conditions fell, sales expectations in the next six months edged lower, and they said traffic of prospective buyers has dropped recently.Meanwhile, housing starts in Canada jumped +30% in April from March and that was well above what was expected. It was their most since June 2023. US tariffs on Canadian softwoods is likely making Canadian house building costs lower.Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders rose +7.7% in April from a year ago, but that growth was a slowing from +11.4% growth in March. But it was the seventh consecutive month of rising machine tool orders. Local orders dropped -5.4% from a year earlier while foreign orders jumped +13.3% on the same basis. India's exports were nothing special in April, certainly not reflective of a rising industrial power. They slipped from March but they were up +9.0% from a year ago due to gains in prior months.In Europe, industrial production rose by +2.6% in March from February, marking the strongest increase since November 2020 and rising from a good +1.1% gain in February. The result easily beat market expectations of a +1.8% rise. The surge was driven primarily by a rebound in output of durable consumer goods.In Australia, they added +75,500 jobs in April, almost 47,500 of them full-time positions. Their employed workforce grew +2.75% in the past year. Their jobless rate eased to 4.1% from 4.3% (although staying at 4.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis which is the metric others report). Inflation pressure plus this strong jobs report might have the RBA re-thinking the wisdom of a rate cut.Bulk freight rates fell -7.0% in the last week to be -18.5% lower than year-ago levels. Container freight rates were also -18.0% lower than year ago levels, but they did rise +8% last week with a surge in outbound cargoes from China across the Pacific on the sudden 'pause' in tariff hikes.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.45%, down -8 bps so far today.The price of gold will start today at US$3218/oz, and up +US$43 from yesterday.Oil prices are -US$2 lower today at just over US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just on US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.7 USc, down -40 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 67.2 and down a net -40 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$104,020 and up +0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just under +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the consequences of US policy changes are now starting to show up in the data.The big overnight news is the Q1-2025 US GDP report. The American economy shrank at an annualised rate of -0.3% in the period, the first retreat since Q1-2022. This was a sharp reversal from +2.4% growth in the previous quarter and well below market expectations of +0.3% growth. A surge in imports was one key factor as businesses rushed to stockpile goods in anticipation of higher costs from the tariff announcements. But that didn't include consumers because their spending growth cooled to 1.8%, the slowest pace since Q2-2023. Federal government spending fell -5.1%, the steepest drop since Q1-2022.That 'cooled' consumer spending reversed in March with a tariff-stocking-up rise for them too (especially for cars) ahead of the April cost increases. PCE inflation cooled a little, but not yet back to mid-2024 levels. Personal disposable income rose less than spending in March.Financial markets reacted negatively to the larger than expected GDP shifts.This weekend we get the April non-farm payrolls report and currently markets expect a smallish rise of +130,000. But that may be an over-estimate. The ADP survey of private business only added +62,000 workers to their payrolls in April, less than half of the downwardly revised 147,000 payrolls in March and well below market expectations of +115,000.April data is weaker than for March, so prospects for Q2-2025 economic activity do not look flash for the giant US economy. US mortgage applications sank again last week, and for a third straight week. A pullback in new orders and production levels in April saw the Chicago PMI contract for its 17th consecutive month.But US pending home sales jumped in March from February, ahead of tariffs which are expected to make new home purchases more expensive. But they are -0.6% lower than year-ago levels which itself was a weak base.And still in the US, it is becoming clearer who will be paying the tariffs. Retail giant Walmart has raised the white flag, telling Chinese suppliers to resume shipments suggesting to them it will 'absorb' the new border costs. Of course they will be passed on to consumers.Across the Pacific, we are looking ahead to the Bank of Japan rate decision later today, although the landscape has changed there and they are unlikely to raise their +0.5% policy rate now.Japan's industrial production was weakish in March, coming in lower than expected from the prior month to be little-changed from March a year ago. At the same time they reported retail sales +3.1% ahead of the same month a year ago which was lower than expected, also with current weakness from February.Nearby, Korea said their industrial production came in better than expected in March although not as strong as for February. Korean March retail sales however gave back a small bit of the outsized rise in February.In China, their May Day holiday starts today and runs to May 5, inclusive. (They were required to work on April 27 (Sunday) to give them five consecutive "days of rest". They may not be resting; travel bookings for domestic trips are up through the roof this year. (Don't forget, in China, the standard working week is 8 hours per day, 40 hours per week, which is a five-day work week (Monday-Friday). However, it's important to note that the 996 work culture, where employees work from 9am to 9pm, six days a week, is a common reality, especially in their tech industry.)Once again the official factory PMI for China came in with a small contraction (a definite slowing), while the private Caixin version came in with a small expansion, although a slight slowing. Separately, the official services PMI came in with a slightly better expansion. In all cases, new order levels retreated.In Europe, the German economy expanded slightly in Q1-2025 from Q4-2024. Inflation was steady in April at 2.2%, and retail sales were up +2.2% on a volume basis from March year-ago levels, but little change from February.That all helped the overall EU GDP to expand +1.4% in Q1-2025 from a year ago, up +0.4% from Q4-2024. It is rate that the EU outperforms the US, and this isn't so much because the EU is rising, more that the US is falling.Whichever way you sliced it, Australia's inflation came in at 2.4% in March from a year ago. That was true for the quarterly CPI, and the monthly inflation indicator. Both were little-changed from the respective prior releases. There's now talk of a post-election rate cut from the current 4.10% cash rate target.The pre-tariff shoring up saw air cargo demand spike in March, led by activity in Asia/Pacific, and the US. Come April and May, this spike is expected to reverse quite sharply. Passenger air travel is flattening right out, especially in North America. But it is being held up by strong China and India domestic demand, and still-good Asia/Pacific international demand.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, unchanged bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3309/oz, and down -US$10 from yesterday.Oil prices are down more than -US$2 at just under US$58.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is down more than -US$3, now just over US$61/bbl. These are four year lows, down to level last seen in April 2021.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc, unchanged from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 52.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.6 and essentially unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today down -1.3% from yesterday at US$94,182. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news gold has taken off, hitting yet another new all-time record high as fear stalks markets today and risk is definitely 'off'. But the NZD is rising. As we publish, markets are moving quickly so this snapshot will date just as quickly.But first in the US, mortgage applications fell -8.0% last week from the same week a year ago, with the refinance component down a rather sharp -12% on the same basis. These retreats came as benchmark mortgage rates rose +20 bps from a week agoA rush to buy cars ahead of the April tariff taxes delivered a boost to March retail sales that was even more than expected. Without those car sales, March retail was barely improved, and that does not adjust for price inflation so in volume terms, core retail sales are declining now. That trend will have global implications.American industrial production rose +1.3% from a year ago and this does adjust for price changes, so a small improvement. But it did shrink in March compared to February.Sentiment by American house builders was little-changed in March from February, but it is -21% lower than a year ago, and -13% lower than two years ago. In fact, excluding the pandemic, you have to go back to the GFC to find it this poor in a March month. That is not good because it is the start of their Spring selling season. Survey results show that tariff taxes are not being paid by importing countries, rather by the builders at this stage. As profits dive, that will be passed on to buyers next.There was a US Treasury 20 year bond auction earlier today and demand was slightly lower so the median yield rose to 4.75%. That is a rise from the 4.59% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Fed boss Powell was talking earlier today, saying that tariffs pose a real challenge to meet their dual inflation+jobs mandates. Inflation pressures are here now which argues for rate settings to rise, while economic growth is expected to leak away soon hurting jobs, arguing for a rate cut. He said they will "wait for greater clarity" to see where the dominant pressure comes from.These comments were not the magical thinking equity markets wanted to hear, and the realities of what faces the US economy has seen Wall Street pull back today. The Nasdaq is down -3.9%, the S&P500 down -2.8%. The Dow is down -1.8%. Gold is the safe-haven parking lot.In Canada, they are also waiting. Rather than continue with their rate cut track, the Bank of Canada has paused that track, keeping its policy rate at 2.75% as they too watch inflation rise and economic activity leak away. Interestingly, the TSX is only down -0.3%, hit far less than Wall Street.Across the Pacific, Japan's February machinery orders rebounded sharply, rising well above market expectations for a modest +0.8% increase to its highest level in a year. Manufacturing orders rose +3%, while non-manufacturing orders jumped +11.4%. This rise matches the separate machine tool order data for March which was also up sharply. And these first see prosperity ahead; The Reuters Tankan sentiment index rose sharply in April. But the same firms surveyed were gloomy for the months further out in 2025.China claimed its economy grew at a +5.4% rate in Q1-2025 (real), the same rate as for Q4-2024. They said retail sales were up +5.9% (nominal) in March from a year ago, better than the +4.0% in February and the best rise since December 2023 which benefited from a low base. They also said industrial production was up +7.7% (nominal) in March, far better than the +5.6% expected and far better than the +5.9% February gain. Electricity production was only up +1.8% (real) year on year in March, so either they are making spectacular energy efficiency gains, or something other than electricity powers their industry, or something doesn't add up. Anecdotal reports from many regions don't paint quite the picture these official stats paint.Meanwhile, Chinese new home prices in March edged lower from February, but there are range of changes in the 70 top Chinese cities. Still only Shanghai shows a year-on-year gain. Among the same cities, none show any gain for resales of existing houses and some declines are now as much as -11% (Jinhua, 7 mln population, and Tangshan, 7.7 mln).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27%, down another -6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today sharply higher at a new record of US$3337/oz, and up +US$108 from yesterday or +3.3%.Oil prices have firmed marginally, up +50 USc from yesterday to be now just over US$62/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just over US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.3 USc, up +20 bps from yesterday at this time and still the highest since mid-December. The fall of the USD embeds. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we down -40 bps from yesterday at just on 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 67.6 and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,854 and holding again, down less than -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. This podcast will take a break over the Easter holiday weekend and we will do this again Tuesday.

“Watchdog” NGO attacks ivermectin as quack cancer fix—while studies support its potential benefits; China tariffs will impact supplements for humans—but also key nutritional ingredients for food, agriculture; Supreme Court rules on flavored vape products aimed at kids—as 17 year old cheerleader sidelined with “popcorn lung”; Tips for dealing with spring allergies.

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 14th of April, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what's coming next!

In this episode of Uncommon Sense with Ginny Robinson, I'm giving my take (to the best of my ability—because I'm not a tariff expert and neither are most of the people chiming in right now) on Trump's gutsy new tariff move. It's the one that's got half the country cheering and the other half clutching their pearls. While the media yells “economic suicide,” I'm here to suggest that this strategy might actually work—but not overnight. We'll talk about the possibility of long-term gain, the reality of short-term discomfort, and the cultural obsession with instant results when what's often required is patience. I will also go over our collective short attention spans and why longer attention spans are needed for understanding complex issues like this. Every answer won't fit in a 15 second soundbite. At the end of the day, we'll have to pray, wait, and see. Some of the smartest plays take time to unfold.—https://noblegoldinvestments.com/learn/gold-and-silver-guide/?utm_campaign=21243613394&utm_source=g&utm_medium=cpc&utm_content=&utm_term=noble%20gold&seg_aprod=&ad_id=698073353663&oid=2&affid=1&utm_source=google&affiliate_source=googleads_brand_bmbc&utm_term=noble%20gold&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAADQ2DzJSJ_mi5cJo8dO2FNUs7uNy-&gclid=CjwKCAjwktO_BhBrEiwAV70jXtjSCyioSM2Hz1McTAlR3f8t3KCDDN3-XBWLaIzwJmiEGe0ztxIk5RoCnM0QAvD_BwE

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are plenty of bumps in the economic road to note today.But first up today, there was another full dairy auction overnight, one that analysts had been nervous about and the derivatives market saw downside risks (on the uncertainties of how dairy product distortions would fare in the growing tariff disputes). In the end overall prices were unchanged - so no bump here - which the industry will take as a 'win'. But that is in USD terms. In NZD terms it certainly wasn't with prices down -3.3% overall as the USD weakened. Butter inched higher, and to a new record level. So did cheese. But WMP was little-changed, and SMP fell -0.4%. China was in there buying although not with notable enthusiasm.All eyes now turn to Fonterra's interim report on Friday, and the expectations are for only minor tweaks to their payout levels over that they have already announced at record highs.In the US, the retail impulse tracking though the Redbook index still shows a strong year-on-year +5.2% gain compared to the same week a year ago, but the advantage is fading and has done so each week in March so far. We don't get a week-on-week reading but for that year-on-year gain to fall from +6.6% three week ago, there must be a sharpish recent fall away.American housing starts unexpectedly jumped +11.2% in February from January, but that was just making back the -11.5% fall the prior month. The February 2025 build rate was at 1.501 mln units whereas the February buodl date was at 1,546 mln units so a -2.9% retreat on that basis.It was a similar story for US industrial production - up more in February from January (+0.7%) than expected (+0.3%), but the gains were less (+1.4%) than year-ago levels (+1.7%).There was a US Treasury 20 year bond auction earlier today and it brought less support, and at a median yield of 4.60%. The better supported prior equivalent event a month ago was at a median yield of 4.77%.Canada reported its CPI inflation rate at 2.6%, which was a notable rise from their January level of 1.9% and an expectation of 2.2%. It is probably only going to get worse from here due to the snarky tariff war the Americans started and the Canadians collective reactions. Their monetary policy decisions are based on "trimmed mean" rates, and they only moved up slightly.Across the Atlantic in Germany, and by a two thirds majority, their parliament has approved a massive €1 tln funding increase to allow it to build its defence capability and support Ukraine. It is a massive change in attitude to their fiscal policy direction.In the Pacific, Indonesia's stock market halted trading yesterday for the first time since 2020 after their market plunged more than -7% from Monday's close. Substantial concerns over economic stability and consumer sentiment are behind the move.In China the property sector woes are far from over. Another major developer, Sunac, has issued a major 'profit warning', actually a major warning about huge losses. Demand for its projects is very weak.In Australia, a superannuation fund has been convicted of greenwashing and ordered to pay a fine of more than AU$10 mln for making false claims about how it invested funds.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. And we should probably note that the Tesla share price is down another -6% so far today.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3036/oz and up a net +US$42 from yesterday, and another all-time high.Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just under US$67/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just under US$70.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.2 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday and maintaining its recent gains. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.4 AUc and a new three-month high. Against the euro we are unchanged at 53.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 67.3, and marginally firmer.The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,895 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

2025 ITR Economics Summit→ https://hubs.la/Q035QkjZ0 Contact us today to learn more about how you can benefit from Financial Resilience! → https://hubs.la/Q035Qlcs0 This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain shares encouraging news – US Industrial Production is approaching Phase B, Accelerating Growth, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 and 2026 for the industrial economy. While it is normal to feel the negative effects from the past year despite this positive trend, tune in to discover how you can best prepare for the coming growth ahead!

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news retaliation on retaliation seems to be the order of the day in the US tariff policy - exactly has observers had expected. The whole thing is a no-win battle and a repeat of a history lesson that failed the first time - one it should be noted that resulted in the 1929 Depression.Both Canada and the EU responded with retaliatory tariffs on imports from the US. Washington threatened more on them for responding.Separately, in the US, lower energy costs brought their CPI inflation rate down to 2.8% in February from 3.0% in January. This was a better result than expected. A year ago, CPI inflation was running at 3.2% and decreasing, when it dropped to 2.4% in September.But no-one expects the dip to last, as the tariff costs get passed on to consumers.Another fall in the long term US benchmark interest rates has brought another healthy rise in mortgage applications hast week, up at an +11% annual rate from the prior week. Again it was a continuing sharp surge in refinance activity (+16%), that drove the increase, rather than new lending (+4%).There was another well-supported US Treasury bond auction overnight, this one for their ten year maturity. It resulted in a median yield of 4.27%, sharply lower than the 4.56% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Safe haven demand is strong.The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by -25 bps to 2.75% in its March decision, as expected and previously signaled, to mark -225 bps in rate cuts since the start of its loosening cycle in June 2024. More rate cuts are expected, especially now they can see a major economic bump coming from the tariff war.Japanese PPI is still rising at +4.0% year-on-year in February, reinforcing how embedded inflation has now become in Japan. And probably at a higher level than they are comfortable with. It's the sixth straight month it has exceeded 3%.In China, their national set-piece policy meetings adopted a 4% to GDP debt limit, but even local observers pointed out this will end up far higher than what will turn out in 2025. They will need massive new debt to achieve their 5% growth target. That much more debt creates a local government honey-pot rush.India's CPI inflation rate fell sharply in February, down from 4.30% in January to 3.60% in February, a fall larger than the 4.0% expected. The pace of the drop in food price inflation drove the moderation. This will probably lead to more rate cuts by their central bank.On the other hand, India's industrial production rose faster than expected. It was expected to be +3.5% higher in January than a year ago matching the December expansion. But in fact it came in +5.0% higher.In Greenland, the 56,000 mostly Inuit voters have chosen the opposition centre-right, pro-business party as their new government. And declared they don't want to be American (or Danes, for that matter).Also rising was Russian CPI inflation, which came in at +10.1% in February, up from 9.9% in January, driven by the +11.7% rise in food prices.In an extension of targeting its 'friends', the US confirmed that there will be no exemptions for tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium. Of course, the US still expects those it offends to keep buying US products and services.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just over US$2933/oz and up another +US$17 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$1 at just over US$67.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just under US$71/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.3 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are unchanged at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 66.5, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$82,161 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more data dragging in the US, and more debt plans in China.First up, American mortgage applications fell again last week, and this is despite their benchmark 30 year mortgage interest rate falling further below the 7% level. Lower home loan rates now are not motivating home buyers.And that lack of motivation is really coming through in new home sales, which were down more than -10% in January from December to an annual rate that was -15% below year ago levels. For their new home building industry, this will be a real cause for concern.There was another US Treasury bond auction earlier today, this one for the 7-year Note and it delivered a median yield of 4.15%, lower than the 4.41% at the equivalent auction a month ago. Demand for these issues is not flagging.In China, they are adding capital to their big state-owned banks, maybe as much a ¥1 tln to the six of them. The funds will be raised by new sovereign bond issues. More debt for the state so that banks can lend more debt to clients.And that could just be the start. Bloomberg is reporting that a key policy adviser said China needs to vastly step up its efforts to cleanse the balance sheets of their local governments, giving them the space needed to support consumer spending and strengthen the economy. He said central government should take on at least ¥20 tln worth of local sovereign debt. For reference ¥1 tln is about NZ$240 bln. ¥20 is NZ$4.8 tln. They are talking real money here.Singapore's industrial production rose +9.1% in January from the same month a year ago in a solid turn up, although the gain was pretty much as analysts had expected.Taiwan revised its Q4-2024 GDP growth rate up to +2.9%, and it was a sharp revision higher from the earlier estimate of +1.8%. That means their economic activity expanded by +4.6% in all of 2024.Australia's monthly CPI inflation indicator rose 2.5% in January, unchanged from the prior month but below market expectations of 2.6%. Despite this, inflation remained at its highest since August. But this monthly update probably won't shake the RBA estimate of acceptable inflation in Q1-2025.And staying in Australia, the latest data available, for Q3-2024 released yesterday, buyers from China were the largest group of foreign investment into Australian housing, recording more than AU$400 mln in approvals. This data was for the period ahead of the Australian ban on temporary residents acquiring established homes and Chinese buyers accounted for 30% of it. You have to say it isn't much of a surge - and since then foreign buyer demand has fallen away.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.27%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2910/oz and recovering +US$16 from yesterday.Oil prices are marginally lower at under US$69/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still under US$73/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.1 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 66.9, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,928 and down a minor -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.2%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that is not good. Markets are suddenly gripped by extreme fears of where the world's largest economy is heading.But first up today we can report that the overnight dairy Pulse auction has seen milk powder prices fall. The big fall expected for WMP didn't happen but it was a retreat all the same. The small fall expected for SMP actually came in more pronounced than expected. Both shifts have ended the recent run up in these prices although they probably don't necessarily end the higher trending. Neither correction was enough to unstitch that at this event. But uncertainty is back all the same.US data releases overnight remained resilient. The US retail impulse, as measured by the Redbook survey, held strong, unchanged and up +6.2% from the same week a year ago.The next Richmond Fed factory survey moved up a bit but is now showing an expansion, its most since October 2023. This was a better result than anticipated and in complete contrast to yesterday's Texas survey.The Dallas Fed's services survey eased back, but is still expanding although the trend has turned down mainly because the outlook uncertainty is rising.But none of this data trumped the fast-rising doom mood in the US. The latest Conference Board survey of consumer sentiment was particularly negative. Its reading of consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Although other similar surveys like the PMIs and the University of Michigan one showed the same trend, this latest one was worse and has just compounded the negative mood.Risk aversion sentiment is gripping financial markets today. Wall Street is lower, the US Treasury bond prices are surging (yields falling), yield inversions are returning, and the USD is rising, in the normal reaction to a risk-off mood. Everyone from consumers to the financial market professionals know the US is going the wrong way with its public policy.And we should probably note that the Tesla share price is down more than -8% so far today, down -14% in a week and down -20% since the start of the year. The "move-fast-and-break-things" strategy isn't proving to be a good business practice.There was another US Treasury 5yr auction today and the well-supported event delivered a yield of 4.07%, lower than the the 4.29% at the equivalent event a month ago.Elsewhere, Taiwanese retail sales are on the rise, up +5.3% in January from a year ago in a strong showing, much better than expected. Meanwhile, Taiwanese industrial production growth eased, but only back to the levels expected.South Korea's central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 2.75% yesterday. This was as expected. It is their third cut since this rate peaked in January 2023 at 3.5%. Their cutting cycle started in October 2024.In China, exports through Hong Kong fell to a one year low in January, and a sharp retreat from December. This is the weakest growth in exports activity after sharp reversals for exports of electrical machinery, and household appliances.In Australia, regulator ASIC is warning of the risks of investing in private markets, a growing trend recently. The opacity of valuations, liquidity and governance has them worried.And as the Aussies get ready for a probably May election, it has been standard to expect the ruling Labor Party to lose, mainly because incumbents are losing elsewhere. But a new poll suggests a change may in fact not happen there. No doubt they are encouraged by the German election where essentially the center held.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.31%, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just under US$2894/oz and down -US$48 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$2 at just under US$69/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$73/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.2 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,309 and down a massive -7.7% from this time yesterday. Bitcoin has dropped about 20% since Trump's January inauguration, as initial optimism over his crypto-friendly stance fades. Bitcoin wasn't the only crypto to drop. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Joe Cantu provides the Cantu Tactical Wealth Management 2025 Stock Market forecast as of February 16, 2025.  He shows charts of the GDP, Gross Domestics Product, report for the United States.  He display several other economic reports such as Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Employment.  The Magnificent seven stocks are discussed with the performance for 2024.   There is an interesting comparison of the S&P 500 Size weighted INDEX and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted INDEX for 2024 performance.  This is a good video for retirement accounts and money management ideas.Link: "What is An ETF?" https://youtu.be/6ogG3qzF15EMagnificent 7 links: "What Are the Magnificent Seven Stocks?", https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/investing/magnificent-7-stocks?utmhttps://youtu.be/UrYxlJ31r2I Youtube Link:

S&P Futures are trading slightly lower this morning with the pause in implementations of tariffs remaining the key headline. The key here is that it allows countries the opportunity to negotiate trade barriers ahead of any tariff action being implemented. Later this morning there are economic reports on Retail Sales and Industrial Production. ABNB, DKNG, FROG, GT, ROKU & WYNN are all higher after releasing their earnings reports. Monday is a holiday, on Tuesday morning watch for earnings from BIDU, FLR, GPC & MDT. The House Budget Committee passed a Budget Resolution and it will not go to the full House for a vote. Hong Kong markets surged as China's President is meeting with business leaders in an effort to expand growth. Oil prices are moving higher as tariff announcements are delayed.

European bourses & US futures began the session mixed but have deteriorated on geopols; Luxury lifted by Hermes post-earnings.USD remains pressured post-Trump tariff announcement, Antipodeans lead.Bonds retain a bearish bias but are off lows as geopolitics drives recent price actionGas continues to deflate, crude rangebound & metals advance.Russia has said its officials are not attending the Munich conference, US VP Vance & Ukraine's Zelensky set to meet at 11:00EST; recent remarks from Zelensky have tempered recent optimismLooking ahead, US Import/Export Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation & Manufacturing Output, BoC SLOOS, Speakers including & Fed's Logan.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump signed a memorandum to introduce a reciprocal tariff plan; delayed implementation provided optimism regarding negotiations.APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive handover from Wall St; S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed with gains of over 1%.European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.8% on Thursday.USD is steady after yesterday's heavy selling. EUR/USD trades around 1.0450 and Cable sits above 1.2550.Looking ahead, highlights include Germany Wholesale Price Index, EZ Employment, US Import/Export Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation & Manufacturing Output, BoC SLOOS, Speakers including ECB's Panetta & Fed's Logan, Earnings from Moderna, Hermes, Safran, Segro & NatWest.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it is expected that the US will announce reciprocal tariffs today, although the phase-in time might be months. To be revealed. This will be seen as the formal start of a global trade war. New Zealand won't be any focus but it won't be immune. The tariffs will be on goods. But the retaliatory tariffs will likely come on services where the US runs large surpluses. Both will tend to drive countries away from US influence.Every country is going to learn how to play hard-ball in a zero-sum struggle. None of this will be good for trade, or any sense of cooperation for mutual benefit.Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims came in at 231,000 last week, almost exactly as expected. There are now just under 2.2 mln people on these benefits, quite similar to this time last year.The expected easing in the rise in American producer prices didn't happen in January. They were up +3.5% in December and that was expected to ease to a +3.2% January rise. But in the end the pace of cost increases stayed unchanged at +3.5%. Although it is not a key metric, it is more data that will encourage the Fed to hold its settings and put off a rate cut. Tariffs are likely to make matters worse for them.US household debt pushed on up through US$18 tln at the end of Q4-2024 in new data released today. That is 62% of US GDP, so compared with other countries, not a huge load. In fact it rose only +3.1% from a year ago, basically keeping pace with inflation.There was a UST 30 year bond auction earlier today and that brought a median yield of 4.68%. That compared with the 4.87% at the equivalent eventa month ago.Across the Pacific, Japanese producer priceswere expected to rise in January from December's 3.9% to 4.0%. In fact it came in at 4.2% for the year to January in a broad-based trend higher. And apart from the pandemic period, this is a ten year high for them.It may seem an odd economic 'win' but EU industrial production fell -2.0% in December. This was marginally more than the November -1.8% drop, but very much less than the -3.1% fall expected. It was toughest in Austria, Italy and Hungary, all countries ruled by right-wing populists. So far they are not making their countries great again.Container freight rates fell -5% last week to be +118% higher than pre-pandemic but -19% lower than the same time a year ago. Outbound freight rates from China brought the largest retreats. Bulk cargo rates remained near all-time low levels, but were unchanged over this past week.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.54%, back down -9 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2913/oz and up +US$18 from yesterday.Oil prices are down nearly -US$1.50 at just over US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$75/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.5 USc and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 54.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.7, essentially unchanged from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,526 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the instability feared over the new US tariff approach is hitting their economy.First up today, we need to note that US headline CPI inflation rose in January to 3.0% when no change from the December 2.9% was anticipated. Core inflation was expected to fall to 3.1% from December's 3.2%. But in fact it rose to 3.3%. Rents were a key factor. This has set financial markets on edge.Although not as aggressive, this official data confirms the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey that reported a sharp jump in consumer inflation expectations.US mortgage applications rose slightly, almost all on refinancing demand. So it was driven by churn, rather than new demand. But overall levels remain very low; in the past two-plus years these levels have remained static, and down to levels last seen 25 years ago.All this unwelcome data had a big effect on benchmark interest rates with the UST 30 year yield jumping +11 bps. Clearly the Fed is right to wait before cutting its policy rate. Markets aren't pricing any rate cut until December now. Wall Street equities turned negative after this news too. The USD firmed on risk aversion. None of this was liked by the US President who vented on social media. But behind it all are building fears about the effect of his very misguided tariff policies which everyone but him sees as sharply inflationary.While all this was going on, there was a UST 10yr bond auction and that delivered a yield today of 4.56%, lower than the 4.63% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Investor support isn't wavering but bids here were made before the CPI data release. There will be some large paper losses by these bidders now.(And we should probably also note that with the new Administration kneecapping the Justice Departments monitoring and enforcement of the area, foreign lobbyists are pouring into Washington DC to plead their cases for special treatment. It's open slather.)Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders came in at an average level in January, up +4.7% from the same month a year ago, but nothing like the spurt in December.In China, it won't be news to regular readers, but their property development sector woes are now in crisis territory. The fundamental problem has never been sorted and many companies can no longer hang on. They are going from the zombie phase to actual liquidation now.India's industrial production is leaking growth and at a faster rate than expected. It was up +4.3% in December, down from +5.0% in November and well below what was anticipated. You can see why their recent Union Budget moved into stimulus mode, and the central bank cut its policy rate. India needs a boost to keep the expansion going.Meanwhile, India's CPI inflation rate is easing, down to 4.3% in January from 5.2% in December. Food inflation fell sharply, but it is still at 6.0%.In Australia, December home loan data revealed modest changes. The total number of new loan commitments for dwellings fell -0.4% in the December quarter while the value rose +1.4%. Owner occupier activity was positive, but investors pulled back. The number of new investor loan commitments for dwellings fell -4.5% in the quarter while the value fell -2.9%.And staying in Australia, we should probably note the recently-retired NAB CEO, kiwi-Ross McEwan, has been appointed chairman of the board of Aussie heavyweight miner BHP. That is a long way up for an ex-ASB banker.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.63%, up +9 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2894/oz and down -US$10 from yesterday..Oil prices are down nearly -US$1 at just on US$73/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$76/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.3 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -40 bps at just on 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.7, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time, limited because we rose sharply against the yen.The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,555 and again down -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Geoff Bailey, Logistics Project Manager at minerals giant Imerys, describes the company's operations and the wide variety of end customers using silicates and other minerals in a conversation with Craig and JP. We discuss the importance of strategic site selection and transportation networks in bringing minerals to market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world seems to be bracing for the uncertainties of the incoming US Administration, but it is starting from a generally resilient position (although that doesn't seem to include New Zealand).But first, the week ahead will be dominated locally by our Q4 CPI release. Markets expect a 2.1% year-on-year rate, only marginally less than the Q3 rate of 2.2%. We will also get another full dairy auction on Wednesday too. The REINZ will release its December data sometime, maybe Tuesday. And we can expect other banks to react to ASB's home loan rate reductions.Elsewhere, there will be more PMI releases, GDP releases for South Korea and Taiwan, and rate decisions from Norway, Turkey, Malaysia, and the big one from Japan at the end of the week. Data out of Australia will be minor this coming week. But all the while, important earnings reports will flow on Wall StreetOver the weekend, China said new home prices in 70 cities dropped by an average -5.3% in December from a year ago, slowing from a -5.7% decline in the previous month. This was the softest fall since August but is the 18th consecutive month of decreases. "Second hand home" prices fell faster, and there were no cities where prices rose. The string of decreases come despite efforts from Beijing to reduce the impacts of a prolonged property weakness, efforts such as lowering mortgage rates and cutting home buying costs.China released data that showed electricity production was only up +0.6% from a year ago in December. For the whole of 2024 the rise was +4.6%. The year ended weakly with neither November nor December rising more than +1%. This is a telling indicator of real activity. (This is the metric then-to-be Premier Li Keqiang famously referred to after dismissing their GDP results.)But they said industrial production was up +6.2% in December. Retail sales were up +3.7%. And through all this they claimed Q4-2024 GDP rose +5.4% and its fastest pace of the year. Frankly, that is hard to see based on the components that make it up. Apparently it is based on export growth, but as good as that is, it is hard to see that behind the claimed growth. But the links here, plus this one, and they should be enough to inspect their data and for you to make your own judgement.Singapore's exports surged +9% in December from the same month a year ago, after a +3.4% gain in November. This exceeded the +7.4% rise in November and is the fastest pace in export growth since August. A key driver is a sharp rebound in non-electronic product sales.Globally, the January update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook estimated global growth to be +3.3% in 2025, a slight increase from the 3.2% forecast in October. The rise was driven by the US which offset downgrades in other major economies. Growth for 2026 is also expected at 3.3%, unchanged from the previous projection.They say the US faces upside risks that could bolster growth in the near term, but other nations remain exposed to downside risks amid heightened policy uncertainty. The US economy is now forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2025 (vs 2.2% in October), and China's GDP growth was revised slightly higher to 4.6% (vs 4.5%).Conversely, the Euro Area's growth projection was downgraded to 1% (vs 1.2%), while Japan's growth forecast remains steady at 1.1%. Projections for India's GDP growth were maintained at 6.5%. Australia is expected to grow +2.1% in 2025 and +2.2% in 2026. New Zealand doesn't get a mention in these forecasts.Underscoring the US growth upgrade, American housing starts surged by almost +16% from the previous month to an annualised rate of 1.5 mln units in December, the most since March 2021 and well above the expected 1.32 mln level.And industrial production in the US was up an outsized +0.9% in December and well above the +0.3% expected rise to the strongest increase since February. It was helped by the end of strikes, and a jump in the production of aircraft.But there is a bump in the road about to start: the latest US debt limit deal is about to expire very soon. The new US Administration will have to grapple with that in its early days. Trump wants no debt limits to constrain his tax cuts and spending plans, but his hardline conservative supporters won't agree to more deficits. This will be interesting.Trump has already had an effect on the US Federal Reserve, getting them to withdraw from the 144 member NGFS. of which the RBNZ.And separately, we should probably note that the aluminium price is at a two month high, and heading toward a two year high.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.62%, and up +2 bps from this time Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$2702/oz and down -US$14 from Saturday.Oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$81.The Kiwi dollar starts today just under 55.9 USc and down -10 bps from this time Saturday. Against the Aussie we unchanged at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.8 and down -10 bps from yesterday, but up +20 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$104,704 and down -0.3% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

APAC stocks were mixed in mostly rangebound trade after the uninspiring handover from Wall St and despite encouraging Chinese GDP and activity data.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy with only mild support seen after GDP, Industrial Production & Retail Sales beat expectations with China's economy growing 5.4% Y/Y (exp. 5.0%) in Q4 and by 5.0% (exp. 4.9%) for 2024.DXY lacked conviction following the headwinds from a dovish Fed Waller; USD/JPY initially languished at its lowest in nearly a month; Antipodeans saw a muted reaction to Chinese data.Israel agreed to the Gaza hostage deal and the cabinet is to meet on Friday, according to Israeli media; Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said he will resign from the government if the Gaza ceasefire deal is approved.European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed with gains of 1.5% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Industrial Production, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, Comments from ECB's Cipollone, Earnings from SLB, Fastenal, Truist, State Street & Citizens.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

This special episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 17:00 UK time on Friday, the 10th of January after U.S. monthly payrolls were released.Highlights of This Week's Macro Trends: - U.S. Economy: A surprise surge in U.S. payrolls (+256K) with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Hawkish commentary from Fed officials underscores inflation risks, while the steepening U.S. yield curve hints at continued equity volatility. - Global Markets: Chinese deflationary fears deepen, with CPI at +0.1% and PPI at -2.4%, while German industrial orders plummet (-5.4% MoM). In the UK, 30-year gilt yields hit their highest since 1998, adding to concerns of a potential bond crisis. - Commodities: Oil markets start the year higher, gold resumes its upward trend, and commodities across the board show signs of recovery. - Bitcoin and Equities: Bitcoin trades precariously, risking a fall below $91,370, while Nasdaq volume surges with record-breaking trades. Key Data Releases Ahead: - Tuesday: U.S. PPI, NFIB Small Business Optimism - Wednesday: U.S. CPI, UK CPI, PPI - Thursday: U.S. Retail Sales, UK Monthly GDP, Industrial Production - Friday: U.S. Industrial Production, UK Retail Sales, China GDP Join the conversation to uncover how these developments could shape markets in the week ahead. Don't miss out on this special edition of Macro Mondays LIVE on a Friday! 

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news 2024 has brought some huge and surprising changes. But in other sectors, not as much change as you might have expected. And through it all profits and wealth growth have been strong.But first in the US and based on a rise in new orders, the Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing indexmoved up into positive territory in December, its first positive reading since April 2022. Forward sentiment was positive in that state for a second month in a row.Also driven by new order inflows, but the lack of them in this case, the Chicago PMI fell further in December from November and missing market forecasts. This is their 13th consecutive month of retreats, recording its steepest decline since May.US pending home sales in November grew a strong +6.9% from a year ago, their best rise since May 2021. To be fair however, it is off a weak base, but it is the fourth straight month of gains in sales volumes. Sellers seem to be capitulating on price expectations, and it has become a buyers market, according to the peak US realtor group.In China, a Reuters poll suggests factory activity there expanded in December, capping a three month gain.In Japan, their 10-year government bond yield edged up to around 1.11%, its highest since 2011, as investors continued to assess their latest inflation data.South Korean retail sales rose more than expected. Even so the gain was minimal. Korean industrial production undershot in November. But it is their political crisis that is hurting their currency, falling to its lowest against the USD since 2009.Other countries are depreciating too against the US dollar. The Turkish lira is at a record, all-time low. Ditto the Russian ruble. And the Chinese yuan is almost its lowest since 2007.The US dollar index is ending the year its highest since 2022, and prior to that, its strongest since 2002.Back on Wall Street, the Wall Street Journal is reporting the investment in exchange traded funds now exceeds US$10 tln, with a 2024 rise in these investment vehicles up +30% from 2023 or up +US$2½ tln in 2024.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.55%, and down -8 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$2298/oz and down -US$22 from yesterday. We started the year with this price at just on US$2,050/oz, so a +27% net rise for 2024.Oil prices are a bit more than +50 USc firmer at just over US$71/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just over US$74. We are ending 2024 almost exactly where we started.The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 56.4 USc and unchanged from yesterday. We started the year at 63.4 USc, peaked at 63.6 USc at the end of September, but the net devaluation until now has been -11.1% in USD terms. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 67 to be little-changed from yesterday. The TWI-5 started the year at 71.1, (it peaked at 71.4 mid February) for an overall devaluation of -5.8%.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,907 and down -2.0% from this time on Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.5%. It started the year at US$44,204 and rose to US$73,095 by mid-March. It was still at just US$69,391 just prior to the US election, and has risen since that result. It peaked by closing at US$106,169 on December 18, 2024.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday, January 6.Happy New Year everyone !

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of a major airplane crash in South Korea, probably due to a birdstrike.In the global economy, the situation is dominated by market fears of what the incoming Trump Administration will do. Bond yields are pricing in that risk by raising them to near their highest since 2007. Equity markets are down, with the S&P500 down -2% since its peak close on December 6. The Nasdaq is down -2.2% since its peak on December 16.Rising bond yields depress bond prices. And some finance professionals think the shift higher has only just begun and the risks will accelerate as the capricious Trump agenda takes shape. Bond investors are in for steep losses in 2025, they say.The type of flipflops from Trump, like going from campaigning to ban Ticktock to now telling the Supreme Court to leave it alone, from campaigning to ban immigrant H-1B visas to now saying they are essential, mean markets don't trust his positions anymore. They are late to this realisation. And perhaps it mattered little when he was just a candidate, but now he will be in power again, they sense chaos.We should also keep an eye on trade disputes between Canada and the US. A Trump penchant for tariffs on Canadian softwood exports to Canada could see a rise in competition in other markets for New Zealand logs and milled pine as a fallout.Meanwhile, US inventories, both retail and wholesale were little-changed in November. But they are likely to rise from here as traders rush to beat the impending tariffs.US exports rose +6.0% in November compared with the same month a year ago. But US imports are zooming higher on the expectation of those rising tariffs, up +7.3%. That caused a Trump-induced trade deficit of -US$99 bln in the month, up from -US$90 bln in the same month a year ago.Across the Pacific, Japanese retail sales rose +2.8% in November from year-ago levels, up from a downwardly revised +1.3% rise in October, and easily beating market expectations of a +1.7% gain. This marked the 32nd straight month of expansion in retail sales there and the fastest growth since August, with rising wages continuing to support consumption.However, Japanese industrial production fell by -2.3% in November from October, compared with market expectations of a -3.4% fall. The latest result followed a +2.8% growth in October and is the first contraction in industrial output since August. Year-on-year the November decline was -2.8%. A dip in machinery orders took the blame.Taiwanese consumer sentiment dipped in December from November, but remains sharply higher than year-ago levels, and still in the high recovered range after the low point in late 2022. However, it isn't yet back to pre-pandemic levels.In China, local observers now expect "outsized stimulus" from Beijing policymakers in 2025.Perhaps that is because Chinese industrial profits fell -7.0% in November, compared to the same month a year ago. Even the Chinese habit of only reporting year-to-date results shows a decline now of -4.4%, so the recent months are coming in weaker than earlier. After peaking in 2021, these profits have fallen each year since. Interestingly, state-owned enterprises, which tend to be very large businesses are doing the weakest, down -8.4%. Private foreign-owned businesses are doing the least-worst (-1.0%). And other private sector businesses are down -4.7%. It is hard to see private investors happy in this environment.China's commerce ministry said on Friday that it has launched an investigation into imported beef at the request of representatives from its struggling domestic industry. New Zealand is one source, including through the Silver Fern Farms link. But the main focus is on imports from Brazil and Australia.In Tibet, and in an area China controls but is disputed with India, China just committed to build a vast hydro-electric river dam, so large it is expected to take a decade to finish, and then deliver three times the output of their famous Three Gorges Dam. But they are damming the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which is known as the Brahmaputra River in India and one of India's great rivers. Expect a rise in tension between India and China because of this, although the main impact will be on Bangladesh.In Iran, their currency is under severe pressure and energy shortages are growing. The country is bracing for a spike in civil unrest.We should also note that coffee prices are soaring again, now higher than all the prior peaks in 2011, 2007, and 1997. Droughts in Brazil and Vietnam are getting the blame. Cocoa prices are staying very high too, and for similar reasons although they have pulled back a bit since mid December.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.63%, and up +2 bps from Saturday, and up +12 bps from this time last week. It is up from 3.86% a year ago, but most of that is since the November US election.This will be tough for yield-linked investments like real estate. After hanging on through the pandemic, commercial property values are especially at risk. The sector cleanout could be a feature of 2025, internationally.The price of gold will start today at US$2620/oz and up +US$6 from Saturday.Oil prices are little-changed at just over US$70.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$74. A week ago these prices were -US$1 lower.The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 56.4 USc and up +10 bps from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 54.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67 to be up +10 bps from Saturday and down -10 bps from this time last week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,747 and down -0.3% from this time on Saturday. A week ago it was at US$97,137 do down -3.5% since then. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.1%. Most of the annual rise in the bitcoin price has been after the November US election.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.Happy New Year everyone !

Alex Langer, President and CEO of Sierra Madre Gold And Silver (TSXV: SM) (OTCQX: SMDRF), joins me to review the news out December 10th announcing industrial production at the La Guitarra Mine and processing plant, in Mexico; with commercial production slated for Q1 of 2025. The La Guitarra Mine complex is a permitted, past-producing underground mine, which includes a 500 t/d processing facility that operated until mid-2018; which was purchased from First Majestic Silver (TSX: AG) (NYSE: AG) in 2023, and just went into test mining on June 25th of this year.   The plant has been operating at 86% of the milling circuit nameplate capacity, or 516 wet metric tonnes per day, for the last two months, exceeding the engineering standard of 80% for 30 days necessary to declare industrial commercial production. Alex shares the milling throughput has been just over 500 tpd in mid to late December, so the announcement of commercial production should be imminent.   Production statistics for the last two months:   October: 13,208 wet tonnes of economically interesting vein material processed, producing 296.84 dry tonnes of concentrate, containing 21,186 ounces of silver and 295.3 ounces of gold. November: 13,064 wet tonnes processed, producing 317.7 dry tonnes of concentrate, containing 22,917 ounces of silver and 363.3 ounces of gold.   Alex then lays out the envisioned plan is to run the mill at 500 tpd most of next year, at the slated commercial production throughput. However, he then also shares the pathway forward where a modest amount of equipment can be purchased and installed to grow the mill throughput to 650 TPD in 2026, and then all the way up to 1,000+ TPD by the end of 2027.  In addition to the potential of growth through production, we also discuss the leverage that a silver and gold producer like Sierra Madre will have to the potential of rising metals prices in 2025 and 2026.   Next we shift over into the larger growth vision of the company, as it will turn it's it focus to exploring this district scale land package the end of next year, funded through organically generated revenues.  The property hosts 8 different past-producing mines, with the first 2 priorities being to explore around the El Rincon and Mina de Agua mines.   Additionally, there is a non-compliant 17 million ounce historic resource at the Nazareno Mine, and also solid underground infrastructure at the nearby high-grade Coloso Mine, that First Majestic had put quite a bit of sunk cost into already. Moving the Coloso Mine back into production will be another area of future expansion, which could see supplementary production complimenting that out of La Guitarra as soon as April of 2025.   If you have any questions for Alex regarding Sierra Madre Gold and Silver, then please email us at either Shad@kereport.com or Fleck@kereport.com.   In full disclosure, Shad is a shareholder of Sierra Madre Gold & Silver at the time of this recording.    Click here to follow along with the latest news from Sierra Madre Gold & Silver

Jerome Powell's rate cut, market drops, economic risks, inflation, and the future of the economy.Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldFor 20% off your Momentous order, head to https://livemomentous.com and use code GOLD.Laughing Cats https://open.spotify.com/artist/2f3z6IPGfomCl9FsJeyb8dIn this milestone 1000th episode of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast, Peter broadcasts from an unconventional setup due to technical issues, as he covers a dramatic day in the markets. Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve announces a 25 basis points interest rate cut to meet market expectations, but the stock market reacts negatively with significant losses. Peter discusses the historic losing streak in the Dow, investor optimism around speculative assets, and the financial risks posed by an expensive market amidst rising inflation and interest rates. He critiques Jerome Powell's perception of a strong U.S. economy and labor market, highlighting negative data revisions and continuing economic vulnerabilities. Peter also addresses the implications of rising U.S. deficits, government spending, and a surging dollar on global inflation. He predicts further turbulence for the housing and financial markets, the potential for a bear market, and the likelihood of resumed Fed easing measures. Schiff concludes with insights on gold and silver investments, market disconnects, and political dynamics impacting economic policies.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news commodity prices are facing some headwinds, and that may get worse as trade prospects dim and the de-risking from China builds.Today's full dairy auction brought lower prices from both last week's Pulse event, and the prior week's full event. But the dips were largely as expected and foreshadowed in the derivatives market. In the event, overall prices were -2.8% lower than the last full event, but with the NZD weaker, in NZD the decline was just -0.7%. Today's retreat doesn't interrupt the 2024 rising trend so it seems unlikely any farm gate pay out forecasts will be adjusted because of this.Demand from China was lighter today, but that may just because they have already built their requirements for their upcoming CNY holiday season.US retail sales as monitored by their Redbook survey were a healthy +4.8% higher last week than the same week a year ago.And November retail sales as reported by their official data were up +3.8% from the same month a year ago, the best gain of 2024. And that was driven by strong car sales. Business inventories remain at very manageable levels, so not building stress there.Meanwhile US industrial production actually slipped in November, down -0.9% from a year ago, although there were signs of stabilising in the November month. Factory production actually rose, undermined by both mining and utility production.For a second event in a row, demand for the latest US Treasury bond eased again. This 20 year auction was still well supported, just not as much as usual. The median yield at 4.62% was actually slightly higher than the 4.60% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. While that night seem insignificant, it reverses the recent pattern of falling yields at these Treasury fund-raising events.Canada's November CPI inflation rate came in at 1.9%, pretty much as expected. Their central bank will be happy with that, because it allows them to continue to unwind their policy rate which is at 3.25% and next reviewed at the end of January.Across the Pacific, we should note that Nissan and Honda have begun merger talks.In China, new official data shows that capital flight by foreign investors reached a record level in November as the de-risking trend rose to a new urgency. And international airlines are also pulling back on their China routes.One of the things to come out of the recent Central Economic Work Conference is that Chinese leaders reportedly agreed to raise their budget deficit to -4% of GDP in 2025, its highest on record. (For reference, the New Zealand equivalent is -2.4% of our GDP. In the US, it is -6.3%.) They are holding on to an economic growth target of around 5%.Singapore's exports rose more than expected in November, up +3.4% and a better-than-expected comeback after their weak October result. Imports also rose, by +2.8% on the same basis.And we should probably note that there was a general easing of commodity prices generally overnight, not just dairy products.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.39%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2641/oz and down -US$10 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$1 to be just on US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down almost -US$1 to be just over US$72.50.The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 57.6 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps to 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6 to be down -20 bps from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,952 and up les that +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of a large number of key new releases to end the year.It might be the final full week before the summer holidays (in New Zealand), but there will be a lot going on and a lot to follow. Here of course it is the week when corporates and the government release their 'bad news' stories in the hope people are distracted. Then the REINZ will release its November data. And there will be a full dairy auction on Wednesday morning. Thursday will bring our Q3 GDP, expected to confirm we have been in recession.But there is not a lot on the card from Australia this week, other than a consumer sentiment survey from Westpac which we need to keep an eye on.Globally, the big set piece will be the US Fed's monetary policy review on Thursday NZT. A -25 bps cut is expected there. And that comes in the middle of a large raft of important US data updates. China has a good chunky set too. Japan will chime in with its own, including their rate review where now, no change is anticipated. There are other central bank reviews as well, from Sweden (uncertain), Norway (no change), Indonesia (-25 bps), Taiwan (no change), Thailand (no change) and the Philippines (-25 bps). Russia is also expected to push its policy rate up by +200 bps to 23%. Canada and the EU will have their own key data releases.In the meantime we start the week with global interest rates on the move up and the US rate inversions have now vanished. Except in China where there is a rush on for the safety of Government bonds which is driving down yields to record lows. And positive-sloping yield curves are returning.As we noted, the US Fed is expected to cut rates by -25 bps at its December meeting next week on Thursday NZT, bringing the benchmark range to 4.25%-4.50%, and a full percentage point drop since September. Economists anticipate slower cuts ahead, with only three reductions projected for 2025. Those cuts may be delayed if inflation remains above the Fed's target.As the Trump team prepares for the transition, its anti-regulation focus is coming into view. They are seeking candidates to eliminate or eviscerate the FDIC (sought by big banks), and rid themselves of car-crash reporting (as sought by Elon Musk). The billionaire sharks are going after consumer protections.Canadian manufacturing sales were up strongly in October, their best growth spurt in nearly two years. That made them +1.4% higher than the same month a year ago. While that isn't quite besting inflation, the recent moves up will be encouraging them.Across the Pacific, Chinese banks extended just ¥580 bln in new yuan loans in November, less than half the same month a year ago, and nearly half of what was expected. This is the lowest new lending for a November since 2012. The decline took place despite the aggressive monetary stimulus measures from the PBoC in late September in an attempt to halt the property market downturn. There have also been much higher levels of local government debt issued in that time too. Poor credit demand in China is saying a lot about Beijing's management of their economy and its prospects.President Xi and his top team have been meeting in their big set-piece Central Economic Work Conference, and what is glaringly obvious from this so far, is that they don't know what to do, and financial markets are sensing that with their pullbacks.But it sounds like they are preparing to cut both key policy rates and their reserve requirement ratio in 2025, according to a report here.EU industrial production is still in its decline phase, now stretching to 18 consecutive months. It will be little comfort to them that the October decline was smaller than the prior month.In Australia, a report suggest that auction clearance rate in Sydney have fallen sharply over the weekend to be just on 50%, a long way lower than the about-80% level of just a few weeks ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.40%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday. But that is quite a move for the week, up +26 bps.The price of gold will start today at US$2647/oz and down -US$11 from Saturday.Oil prices are firmish but still just over US$71/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just on US$74.50. The Kiwi dollar starts today still just under 57.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday, but down -70 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 54.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6 to be unchanged from yesterday, and down -40 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$103,011 and up +1.5% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was at US$101,044. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Mining Stock Daily provides an update on Sierra Madre Gold and Silver's La Guitarra Mine, discussing the recent announcement of industrial production and the path towards commercial production. The discussion highlights production numbers, market valuation, and future projections for the company, including exploration plans and alignment with shareholders.

Collective Mining has discovered a new silver zone at Guayabales. Newcore Gold and Arizona Sonoran Copper has met test results to report. Defiance Silver published a mineral resource estimate for Tepal. Fortuna Mining updated its Mineral Reserves and Resource at Séguéla. Kingfisher Metals announced a financing. Sierra Madre Gold and Silver announced industrial production has begun at the Guitarra mine processing plant in Estado de Mexico. This episode of Mining Stock Daily is brought to you by...  Arizona Sonoran Copper Company (ASCU:TSX) is focused on developing its brownfield copper project on private land in Arizona. The Cactus Mine Project is located less than an hour's drive from the Phoenix International airport. Grid power and the Union Pacific Rail line situated at the base of the Cactus Project main road. With permitted water access, a streamlined permitting framework and infrastructure already in place, ASCU's Cactus Mine Project is a lower risk copper development project in the infrastructure-rich heartland of Arizona.For more information, please visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.arizonasonoran.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Vizsla Silver is focused on becoming one of the world's largest single-asset silver producers through the exploration and development of the 100% owned Panuco-Copala silver-gold district in Sinaloa, Mexico. The company consolidated this historic district in 2019 and has now completed over 325,000 meters of drilling. The company has the world's largest, undeveloped high-grade silver resource. Learn more at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://vizslasilvercorp.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Minera Alamos is a gold developer and producer with its first low capex mine, Santana, continuing to work through start-up development. The company is also advancing the Cerro de Oro project through the permitting process. Minera is built around its operating team which brought 4 mines into production in Mexico over the last 13 years. It is fully funded with over $20-million dollars in working capital. Learn more at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mineraalamos.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

S&P Futures are trading lower this morning in a reaction to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the Fed is not in a rush to lower rates. Put volumes soar in drug stocks as President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic and critic of federal health agencies, to be his Secretary of Health and Human Services. Two key economic reports due out this morning, Retail Sales and Industrial Production. SEC filings displaying position adjustments at major funds continue to come in, AAPL is seeing an elevated number of firms existing positions in the last quarter. In Europe, stocks have gone from flat two lower as anxiety builds ahead of the U.S. markets open. Oil prices are slightly lower due to global demand concerns.

Weakness in today's Industrial Production print is one indicator that Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders says create bumps in the Fed's road ahead. Even in stronger reports like Retail Sales, weaker sales in electronics can create trouble for the holiday shopping season. Liz Ann also looks into the connection between stocks and yields. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Is the Fed's latest rate cut a sign of turbulent times ahead or a smart move to sustain growth?In this week's episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, examine the Federal Reserve's significant decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (or half a percentage point) — the first reduction since March 2020. This pivotal move carries major implications for investors, the economy, and overall market sentiment. Ryan and Sonu explore the reasoning behind the Fed's policy shift and explain what it means for those managing portfolios in today's financial landscape.Are we looking at a new phase of economic momentum, or are there hidden risks on the horizon? The hosts offer a detailed analysis, along with practical advice for financial advisors and investors adjusting their strategies in response to this new economic reality.Key Highlights:Federal Reserve's Rate Cut: The Fed's first interest rate reduction in over three years is framed as a strategic risk management tool designed to stabilize employment and promote sustained growth rather than a reaction to looming recession fearsResilient Economic Data: Despite the rate cut, key sectors like industrial production and retail sales continue to show strength. Robust growth in high-tech industries and online shopping underscores the overall resilience of the economyConsumer Debt and Health: While consumer debt has hit record highs, it remains manageable. Low delinquency rates and minimal bankruptcy filings suggest that household finances remain relatively stableStock Market Gains: Recent stock market gains are driven by strong corporate profit growth rather than inflated valuations. With healthy corporate balance sheets and expanding profit margins, the outlook for continued market growth remains positiveHousing Market Rebound: Although mortgage rates remain high, improvements in housing permits and starts suggest that the Fed's rate cuts are beginning to stimulate activity in the housing sector, a key driver of economic growthBond Market Reactions: Long-term treasury yields have risen despite the rate cut — a positive signal indicating confidence in the economy's future growth rather than fears of a potential recessionFuture Market Outlook: Historical data shows that markets often perform well after major Fed rate cuts, particularly when supported by strong economic momentum, as is currently the caseAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the labor market, industrial production, retail sales, the Consumer Price Index, corporate earnings, and the upcoming Key Wealth National Call.Speakers: Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:31 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 10th declined to 227,000, down 7,000 from the week prior02:00 – U.S. industrial production declined 0.6% for July, as a preliminary read02:32 – Retail sales reported above expectations at an increase of 1.0% month-over-month for July03:07 – The inflation print for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported at 2.9% year-over-year for July; excluding food and energy, the report came in at 3.2% 07:17 – Based on the favorable CPI report, the market is anticipating the Fed may not have to begin cutting rates in an aggressive manner and could begin cutting rates only by 25 basis points as soon as September 13:05 – While earnings haven't had any recent record highs, expectations still continue to heighten; even though the economy is slowing, it is still growing16:56 – Final comments highlighting the upcoming Key Wealth National Call Wednesday, September 4th at 1:00pm EST. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: "You're Killin' Me Smalls!" Will Small Caps Ever Outperform Again | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Text us your financial questions!Henssler Money Talks — July 20, 2024Season 38, Episode 29This week on "Money Talks," Research Analyst Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, is joined by Managing Associate D.J. Barker, CWS®, and Senior Associate Logan Daniel, CFP®, CRPC® to cover Tech's mid-week tumble and economic releases including June's Producer Price Index, Retail Sales and the Fed's Beige Books. D.J. and Logan discuss an investor whose wealth is tied up in illiquid assets like real estate, fine art, or jewelry. They discuss how these assets may be hard to sell quickly if funds are needed and how to diversify to increase liquidity. The financial Experts also answer listeners' questions on pension plan required minimum distributions and if the AI trend will cause a resurgence in robo advisers. Timestamps and Chapters00:00 Market Roundup: July 15 – July 19, 202422:28 Case Study:  Holding Illiquid Assets34:01 Q&A Time: Pension RMDs and Robo AdvisersFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the monthly retail sales, industrial production, the Fed's Beige Book report, unemployment data, the equities market, and the bond market.Speakers: Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesTim McDonough, Senior Portfolio Manager 02:22 – Monthly retail sales came in at 0.0% for June, which signifies a slowing in consumer spending04:39 – Though there appears to be a slow-down within the economy – based on the consumer spending and employment data – it does not seem to be stalling07:52 – Understanding what caused the shift within the equities market, as returns for the Nasdaq are flat, the S&P 500 is only up 1.5%, midcap stocks are up 4.0%, and commercial real estate is up 8.0% since the inflection point this month14:05 – An update on the municipal bond market; also, after the CPI report was released, and the overall bond market is preparing for an upcoming rate cut, there has been an uptick in new issuance of bonds, and close to $11 billion new issuance of municipal bonds17:31 - Final comments about continuing to stay diversified and investing in quality portfolios Additional ResourcesKey Questions: Private Equity: What Else Do I Need to Know? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into retail sales, industrial production, consumer spending, the Fed, and the equities market.Speakers: Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:38 – The overall Advance Retail Sales report showed a slight increase of 0.1% for the month of May 02:19 – After flat/negative reports for industrial production in March and April, this week's report showed industrial production increased to 0.9% for the month of May 03:17 – Comments on areas of the economy – such as real estate, retail sales, and overall consumer spending – that have a dependent relationship to interest rates, are seeing a slowdown06:06 – While the market is actively reviewing data to support anticipated rate cuts starting in September, the Fed is trying to reel in market expectations as they are still trying to reach the 2% inflation target11:59 – We have seen continued growth within the U.S. stock market as the S&P 500 is up 15% year-to-date and is showing a Sharpe ratio of near 2.0. Along with this, tech companies – like NVIDIA, Apple, etc. – are driving stocks to all-time-highsAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: Key Questions: What Makes a Good Investment Fund Manager | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

From Wall Street to Main Street, the latest on the markets and what it means for your money. Updated regularly on weekdays, featuring CNBC expert analysis and sound from top business newsmakers. Anchored and reported by CNBC's Jessica Ettinger.

htt Sarah Kaye has always been drawn to the tactile world of 3D creation. Fond memories of her mum's homemade play-dough and her insistence on clay projects in art class foreshadowed her future path. Sarah studied Product Design at Parsons School of Design and dug deeply into her minor in Ceramic for Industrial Production under the guidance of  Marek Cecula. However, recognizing the practicalities of life after graduation, Sarah ventured into advertising as a Strategic Planner, where she discovered unexpected parallels of the design process and understanding consumer behavior - thinking about product use and the consumer's experince of them. In Seattle, Sarah was accepted to the two year Pottery Northwest residency program, the last group of residents to be guided by the delight that is Wally Bivens. Starbucks recruited Sarah for a project while still in the program there, as did a local espresso machine manufacturer. Twelves years later, SKaye Ceramics is based in Seattle's Georgetown and Sarah has close ties to the coffee community who have been the patron saints of her small business. http://ThePottersCast.com/1023

Henssler Money Talks – April 20, 2024 Season 38, Episode 16 This week on “Money Talks,” Chief Investment Officer Troy Harmon, CFA, CVA, is joined by Senior Associate Michael Griffin, CFP®, and Associate Giuliana Barbagelata, CFP® to cover the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production. Michael and Giuliana highlight some of the financial questions and moves that investors often have after tax season. The financial experts also answer listeners' questions on paying estate tax and if IRAs are “judgement proof.” Timestamps and Chapters 00:00 Market Roundup: April 15 – April 19, 202423:46 Case Study: Financial Moves Coming Out of Tax Season35:02 Q&A Time: Estate Tax and if IRAs are “Judgement Proof” Follow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en  X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

The S&P 500 posted its largest two-day decline in more than a year with the index down 2.6% since Friday.APAC stocks were lower amid concerns related to a potential 'imminent' response by Israel against Iran, while markets also digested mixed data from China.Better-than-expected Chinese GDP for Q1 was negated by disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.European equity futures indicate a negative open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.2% after the cash market closed up 0.6% on Monday.DXY has gained a firmer footing on a 106 handle, EUR/USD moved closer to the 106 mark, antipodeans lag.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index, ZEW, UK Jobs, Canadian & NZ CPI, Fed's Daly, Jefferson, Williams, Barkin, Powell, ECB's Rehn, BoE's Bailey, Lombardelli & BoC's Macklem, IMF WEO, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Supply from Netherlands & UK, Earnings from LVMH, United Health, UAL, Bank of America & Morgan Stanley.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were somewhat mixed as participants brace for this week's busy slate of central bank announcements.China released better-than-expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.European equity futures indicate a positive open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed down 0.1% on Friday.DXY sits in a tight range below 103.50 with other FX majors contained. USD/JPY edged marginally above 149.GS adjusted its Fed rate cut forecast to 3 (vs. prev. 4), JPMorgan now expects 75bps of cuts this year (vs prev. 125bps)Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian GDP & EZ CPI (F).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined amid headwinds from the US where hot inflation unwound Fed rate cut expectations.European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed down 1.2% on Tuesday.DXY held onto post-CPI gains but stopped shy of 105, JPY selling prompted jawboning from Japanese officials.Japanese MOF's Kanda said they are ready to take action on FX anytime, 24 hours, all year round.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI/PPI, EZ Employment, Industrial Production, GDP Estimate, US PPI Seasonal Factor Revisions, Japanese GDP, Comments from ECB's de Guindos, Cipollone, BoE's Bailey hearing, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr & BoC's Mendes, Supply from Germany and UK.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Henssler Money Talks – January 20, 2024Season 38, Episode 3This week on “Money Talks,” Chief Investment Officer Troy Harmon, CFA, CVA, is joined by Managing Associate K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA, and Associate Adam Stadalius, CFP® to cover the week's market action, the Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production. Planners K.C. and Adam provide some insight for a widow whose late husband took out a reverse mortgage on their home nearly 15 years ago. They discuss what a reverse mortgage is and what it means for her assets and estate going forward. The experts also advise an investor on what assets in his portfolio he should sell to fulfill his required minimum distribution. Timestamps and Chapters00:00 Market Roundup: Jan. 15 – Jan. 19, 202424:00 Case Study: Understanding a Reverse Mortgage34:48 Q&A Time: What to sell when taking an RMDFollow Henssler:  Facebook: http://bit.ly/HensslerFacebook  Twitter: http://bit.ly/HensslerTwitter  LinkedIn: http://bit.ly/HensslerLinkedIn  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/YouTube: http://bit.ly/HensslerYouTube   “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

Stocks rise; auto manufacturing rebounds after strike resolution; services sector activity picks up; hiring quickens in December.

Stocks rise; auto manufacturing rebounds after strike resolution; services sector activity picks up; hiring quickens in December.

S&P Futures have turned higher this morning. Pre-market trading is indicating a positive sentiment this morning. Markets are expecting a stimulus announcement out of China. COST released a strong earnings report after the bell yesterday. Thins mornings Industrial Production report is in focus. In Europe stocks are mainly higher and oil prices continue to display gains.

Colombia continues its recovery from last week's cyberattacks. AI training data is accidentally published to GitHub. The cyberespionage techniques of Earth Lusca. Clorox blames product shortages on a cyber attack. Cybersecurity incidents in industrial environments. Where the wild bots are. Joe Carrigan looks at top level domain name exploitation. Our guest is Kristen Bell from GuidePoint Security with a look at vulnerability vs. exploitability. And there's talk of potential Russia-DPRK cooperation in cyberspace. For links to all of today's stories check out our CyberWire daily news briefing: https://thecyberwire.com/newsletters/daily-briefing/12/179 Selected reading. More than 50 Colombian state, private entities hit by cyberattack -Petro (Reuters)  Colombia Mulls Legal Action Against US Firm Targeted In Cyber Attack (Barron's) Microsoft mitigated exposure of internal information in a storage account due to overly-permissive SAS token (Microsoft Security Response Center) Microsoft AI Researchers Expose 38TB of Data, Including Keys, Passwords and Internal Messages (SecurityWeek) Earth Lusca Employs New Linux Backdoor, Uses Cobalt Strike for Lateral Movement (Trend Micro)  Chinese hackers have unleashed a never-before-seen Linux backdoor (Ars Technica) The Clorox Company FORM 8-K (US Securities and Exchange Commission)  Clorox Warns of Product Shortages Following Cyberattack (Wall Street Journal) Clorox warns of product shortages, profit hit from August cyberattack (The Street)  Can't find the right Clorox product? A recent cyberattack is causing some shortages (USA Today)  Clorox warns of product shortages after cyberattack (Fox Business)  As flu season looms, hackers force a shortage of Clorox products (Fortune) New Research Finds Cyberattacks Against Critical Infrastructure on the Rise, State-affiliated Groups Responsible for Nearly 60% (Business Wire) Death By a Billion Bots (Netacea) Russian and North Korea artillery deal paves the way for dangerous cyberwar alliance (EconoTimes)  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

https://chtbl.com/track/118312/traffic.libsyn.com/secure/talkinglead/TLP_500_TL_Friends_GAW_Adrian_Kelgren.mp3 Talking Lead's Monumental 500th Episode is coming in hot! Recorded from the KELTEC facilities in Cocoa, Florida, Lefty is joined by Chad Enos and Adrian Kellgren to make the big announcement for the Talking Lead & Friends FREEDOM GIVEAWAY! To celebrate Talking Lead's 10 years, 500 episodes and the official release of our new logo we are giving you the chance to win the most Badass-Freedom-Loving-Firearms package of a life time (starting in September). We have teamed up with KELTEC, Mission First Tactical, Kraken Case Company, Walker's Ear, Tactical RX, SEAL 1, Vortex, Inforce, STA Blades, Firebird Targets, Defiant Munitions, Dipstick Branding & Black Tie Digital Marketing to bring you everything needed to exercise your 2nd Amendment Freedom! Adrian Kellgren is a former Navy Pilot and now Director of Industrial Production at KELTEC. Adrian served for 15 years, deployed twice (North Arabian Seas and Afghanistan). He flew E-2 Hawkeyes and C-40 Clippers. During one of his missions he and his crew witnessed a UFO / UAP (Unidentified Flying Object / Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon) We get the full unedited story! We also get the exclusive on KELTEC's new SBR Firearm in 5.7x28mm, Adrian goes through the "New Guy" gauntlet of questions and we get some great personal George Kellgren stories. Chad Enos, Adrian Kellgren & Lefty recording the 500th Episode of the Talking Lead Podcast at KELTEC in Cocoa, FL Matt Stanek preparing media for the big Talking Lead & Friends Freedom Giveaway Lefty holding the KELTEC RDB Defender. Adrian Kellgren looking on Lefty, Adrian Kellgren & Chad Enos at KELTEC Cocoa, FL for the 5o0th episode of Talking Lead