Podcasts about Industrial production

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there has been no improvement in the backdrop to the global economy. To open the new week, oil prices have risen after Trump warned that Tehran is running out of time to reach a deal he likes, while Iranian media reports indicated the two sides remain far apart in negotiations. Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, keeping supplies tight. In the US, the NY Fed's regional Business Leaders Survey shows that the service sector there is continuing to contract, but now at a lesser pace. Activity has been contracting there since late 2024. Inflationary pressures remained persistent, with firms reporting steep increases in input costs and still-elevated selling prices. Staying tin the US, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes, rose in May from April (which was its lowest level since September 2025). They too complain about sharply elevated input costs. And we should probably note that Elon Musk has lost his case against Sam Altman and OpenAI to claim the company. The jury quickly decided Must had no case. In China, new home prices across the 70 cities they reference shrank -3.5% in April from a year earlier, following a -3.4% decline in the previous month. This is the 34th consecutive month of contraction. It is also the sharpest contraction pace since May 2025. The weakness in their property sector goes on and on. The pace of decline in their existing home market is even faster. Four a fourth month, China's electricity production fell from the previous month. But it was +2.6% higher than the same month a year ago. This is a good reference point to assess their industrial production, which they said rose +4.1% in April from a year ago. But that was the slowest they have reported for an April since 2022. Fixed asset investment fell -1.8% in April on that same basis. At the same time, they said retail sales fell -0.5% in April after a -0.1% decline in March. Chinese banks now have an average net interest margin of 1.4%, according to the latest data as at March 2026. That is news because it is a record low. (For perspective, the New Zealand industry NIM is 2.3%.) Singapore said its non-oil exports rose a fast +24.5% in April from a year ago, up sharply from the +15.3% pace in March. This was the eighth consecutive month of growth and the fastest pace in fourteen years, with electronics the growth leader. In Australia, Cotality reported that 1,939 capital city homes went to auction last week, an -11% drop from the previous week, but still tracking higher than a year ago (+8.7%) when 1,784 home auctions were held. The preliminary clearance rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 57.5%, still a soft result but with highly mixed outcomes across different cities. This was the fifth time in the past seven weeks that the early clearance rate had held below the 60% mark and the third lowest result for the year-to-date. The Aussie Budget signals may have contributed to the mood.  The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.59%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$8 at US$4547/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just over US$76.50/oz. American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 to just over US$107/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$110.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,661 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%. It turns out Trump's investment partners are enabling Iran to access the global financial system and evade US sanctions. Iran's Nobitex has processed at least US$2.3 billion through Tron and BNB Chain, blockchain ledgers started by backers of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial. Of course there will be no Justice Department investigation. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news investors are ignoring big (geopolitical) risks by taking even bigger new tech risks. On Wall Street, tech firms are reporting a profit gusher. Google (+81% rise in profits), Amazon (+56%) and Microsoft (+24%) delivered bonanza profit results yesterday, crediting AI for these outsized results. Meta was up too (+61%), but held back by a misfiring AI strategy that will require huge new investment. The positive results will likely boost valuations ever higher. In fact, Big Tech has committed to US$750 bln in new spending in the sector. And this impulse is a big part of driving US economic activity which expanded +2% in Q1-2026 in their initial estimate, up from a modest +0.5% gain in Q4-2025 (which was revised lower at each subsequent update). However the current result was below market expectations of +2.3% growth. The outcome was driven primarily by AI investment, but also exports, and both consumer and government spending. But their PCE inflation was reported for March at its highest in more than two years at 3.5%, with +0.7% of that coming in March alone, the steepest monthly increase since the pandemic distortions. Almost certainly April will have been higher, and probably by some margin. Personal income, before adjusting for inflation, rose +4.2% while personal spending rose +5.4%. No wonder most Americans don't feel like they are making economic progress - although Big Tech won't feel the same way. US initial jobless claims came in at 180,000 last week, a decrease and by more than seasonal factors would have indicated. But although it was expected to continue to expand, in fact the Chicago PMI slipped into contraction in April. This unexpected shift was driven by a drop in new orders and a sharper than expected rise in input costs. In Japan, retail sales (+1.7% vs expectations of +0.8% year-on-year) and industrial production data (+2.3% vs +0.4% in February) out yesterday for March were much stronger than any analyst was expecting. But it was only for March, and questions linger about their April data. Still it is better to lead into that with a good prior month. There were two factory PMI surveys out for China yesterday. The official one has it expanding marginally slower and at a quite modest rate. The unofficial S&P Global version reported a slightly stronger expansion. The official services PMI showed a slightly larger contraction after the surprise tiny March expansion. In Taiwan, they also reported GDP and it will be no surprise that it was a strong +13.7% growth, well exceeding the expected +11.3% expansion. The EU said they expect April CPI inflation to come in at 3.0%, up from +2.6% in March and all driven my higher energy costs. The ECB reviewed its monetary policy settings overnight and left its policy rate unchanged, as expected. (The English central bank did the same.) In Australia, CoreLogic said its Home Value Index rose by +0.3% in April, slowing from a +0.6% increase in March and this latest level is the weakest growth in nearly a year. But values are now falling in the nation's two largest property markets and they are easing in every other capital city. The prospect of another rate hike next Tuesday isn't helping. Global container freight rates were little-changed last week from the prior one, and are now +6% higher than year-ago levels. There were few notable regional route changes. And bulk freight rates also held unchanged over the past week although at a high level. From a year ago these rates are up +90% however. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.39%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$72 at US$4616/oz. Silver is up +US$3 at just under US$74/oz. American oil prices are down -US$3 at just on US$103.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$9.50, and now at US$109/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is back up +50 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,167 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of fractures emerging in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and of OPEC itself. But first up today there was a dairy Pulse auction, but this one bringing few changes from the prior week's full event. Prices for butter, SMP and WMP were little-changed. But the AMF price did fall -4.4% to its lowest of the year so far. In Australia, it is worth noting that bond markets are in full bear more. They have driven their AGB benchmark 10 year bond yield to a 15 year high (price to a 15 year low), and these movements are replicated across the whole maturity curve. Expectations are high that the RBA is about to tackle inflation head-on with purposeful monetary policy actions starting next week. And there is spillover to New Zealand benchmark rates too. In the US, their weekly ADP employment report signaled a third week of good payroll gains in the private sector. And the Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment was marginally better than expected in April. Most aspects deteriorated in this latest survey, except the labour market conditions that the ADP signals have licked up. It was similar for the Richmond Fed's factory survey which was little-changed but with a hint of positiveness. And the Dallas Fed services survey was marginally less negative. Across the Pacific, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its April meeting overnight, leaving borrowing costs at their highest level since September 1995. The widely expected decision passed by a 6–3 vote, amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict and surging energy prices. The three dissenters wanted a hike to 1.0%. In its quarterly outlook, the central bank raised its FY2026 core inflation outlook to 2.8% from 1.9%, citing higher crude oil prices that likely push up energy and goods costs. Overall, this review was more hawksih than expected. Korean manufacturing business sentiment rose in April to its highest since June 2024, with improvements across the board. India's industrial production is settling in with a growth rate of about 4%, the March level which it has been at (or above) for eight of the past nine months. In Europe, their has been a very big jump in inflation expectations. Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.0% in March in the latest ECB survey, the highest level since October 2023 and up sharply from 2.5% in February. This was the largest monthly increase since early 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$83 at US$4599/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$73.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$100/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$2, and now at US$111/bbl. And the UAE announced overnight that it is quitting OPEC, chafing at the export restrictions the cartel uses to manipulate prices. Some wee this as the beginning of the end of OPEC. We should also probably note that a Japanese supertanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz - with Iran's permission and in defiance of the US blockade. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,178 and down -0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the breakdown of free passage in the Strait of Hormuz seems to have others considering the possibilities. Even if it isn't a formal idea, an Indonesian minister has wondered out loud about tolling the Malacca Strait. And there is no indication of progress on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. It is still a deadly no-go zone with no end in sight. Only bad news from the Persian Gulf. In the US, actual initial jobless claims fell last week by -9,700 from the prior week. But this was less than the -16,000 seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1,863,000 people on these benefits, less than the 1,880,000 a year ago but more than the 1,780,000 two years ago. There was positive news from the US 'flash' PMIs for April. The factory version is expanding faster and is at a four year high. Their services sector is expanding again in a modest way after the March contraction. But the April factory survey by the Kansas City Fed reported no improvement from the modest expansion in March. However, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index was notably lower in its latest update, reporting its biggest drop of the year. And if you are working for the "Magnificent7" you may struggle to hold on to your job in the face of some severe downsizing. Meta has announced -10% or 8000 job cuts and said its 6000 open positions would be cancelled. And Microsoft is starting to shrink its large workforce by -7%. "AI productivity" is behind these moves. Canada said its PPI rose sharply in March, up +7.8% from the same month in 2025, driven by very high metals price increases which were up an eye-watering +23.6% on that same annual basis. In India, their April 'flash' PMIs reported a fast expansion that actually accelerated in the month, both for services and factories. In Taiwan, and given earlier data on new orders, it will probably be no surprise to know that their industrial production was up +29% from a year ago, the fastest jump on record there. Their retail sales grew too, a turnaround from prior flat results, but nothing like in their factory sector. There were 'flash' April PMIs out in Japan yesterday and their factory sector is strengthening (54.9 and a four year high) while their services sector's expansion cooled somewhat (51.2). This report also noted intensified cost pressures. South Korea reported its Q1-2025 GDP rise at +3.6% from the equivalent 2025 quarter. This was the fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 2021 and exceeded forecasts of +2.7%. In Europe, their factory sector is doing it tough in April. Eurozone output fell for first time in 16 months as prices surged higher. In Australia, their S&P Global PMI tracking shows their economy expanding again in April after the surprise March contraction. Their factory PMI is back expanding at a modest pace (51.0) while their services sector is back at a steady state (50.3) after the notable March contraction. They noted rising cost pressures however. Global container freight rates were essentially flat over the past week, with trans-Pacific rates rising but China-EU rates falling. These are now little-changed from a year ago too, up a minor +3% on that annual basis. But bulk cargo rates rose a sharpish +11% over the past week to be +110 higher than year ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.33%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$54 at US$4682/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$76/oz. American oil prices are up +US$34at just on US$96.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is also up +US$4, and now at US$105.50/bbl and back in the range it was during the second half of March. The Kiwi dollar is down a sharpish -60 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just on 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -50 bps from yesterday at just on 62 and a two week low. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,590 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Tuesday – because Monday is a public holiday in New Zealand, ANZAC Day.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of little progress in renewed US-Iran 'peace talks'. They seem to have descended into talks about extending the ceasefire rather than resolving any issues. The Strait of Hormuz is still essentially closed. Complicating the oil supply picture is that US crude inventories fell by -9.1 mln barrels last week, far exceeding analysts' expectations for a modest +154,000-barrel increase. This is actually a big deal and has driven the oil price higher today. In the US, initial jobless claims rose to 214,000 last week, but not as high as seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.89 mln people on these benefits, less than this time last year but more than two years ago. But American industrial production fell in March from February, its first fall in four months. That makes it only +0.7% higher than year-ago levels, and hardly a surge in re-shoring. If it wasn't for the growth of AI centers and the electricity required to run them, this would have been a very disappointing result - and it probably is more most companies. That said, the latest update from the Philadelphia Fed's factory survey was quite positive in April, driven by good growth in new orders. Of course, they are measured in nominal dollars and these firms reported notable rises in inflation, for both costs and prices. In China, new home prices across 70 key cities fell -3.4% in March from a year ago, a minor worsening from a -3.2% decline in February. That was the 33rd straight month of contraction and the steepest drop since May 2025. Pre-owned home sales prices fell harder although for the first time in a while some key cities recorded month-on-month rises in prices. China said its Q1-2026 GDP expansion was up 5.0%, and better than the 4.8% expected and the official target of "about 4.5%". And its industrial output was up +5.7% in March, they said. But their retail sales only grew 1.7% which will have been a disappointment because they really need a better rise in internal demand. All the good data reported is somewhat underlined by their data that shows electricity production fell again and for a fourth month, up just +1.4% from March 2025. Australia's March labour market report was pretty tame. The employment rose by +17,900 (about the +20,000 expected) and the number of unemployed people fell by -4,000 in the month. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%. Full-time employment increased by +52,500 to 10,174,400 (after the -27,700 fall in February) while part-time employment decreased by -34,600 to 4,593,300.. The expected inflation rate rose by 0.7 percentage points in April to 5.9% in Australia. It was 5.2% in March. The sharp rise in April reflects the recent spike in oil prices, and makes it its highest since November 2022. In contrast, wage change expectations have remained unchanged for the past five months. In Australia, the big fire at the Geelong Vic. refinery, one of only two in the country, has major implications for Australia's fuels. They will need to import more from a global system already strained with demands on it. (The other one is the Ampol one in Brisbane.) Talk of needing emergency fuel savings measures, especially in Victoria, are growing. Global container freight rates dipped -3% last week from the prior week to be little-changed from a year ago. But bulk cargo freight rates rose +16% last week, and are now almost double what they were this time last year. Global travel rose +4.1% in 2025 according to new research with 80 mln people on the move. But they are increasingly avoiding the US where visitor numbers fell -5.5%. The main gainer is China where visitor numbers rose +9.9% and is predicted to eclipse the US has the main global destination - at this rate in just three years. It is a fast reversal. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.31%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today little-changed, down just -US$5 at US$4488/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$78.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$2.50 at just over US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is up US$4, and now at US$99.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today also down -20 bps from yesterday at just over 62.2. The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,361 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Americans are talking up apparent signals from Tehran that will allow them to declare victory and go home. Markets are taking all this at face-value. But first today, there was a dairy Pulse auction overnight where prices dipped from the prior week with WMP down -1.5%, SMP down -1.9%, and butter down -6.8%. Results in NZD limited these USD drops. In the US, the Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment rose marginally in March from its recent lows. That was despite surging inflation expectations, now well over 5%, and a continuing decline in consumers' future expectations. Meanwhile, US job openings in February retreated and by a bit more than expected. Quits fell too as job security fears rose. Hiring decreased. The Chicago Business Barometer fell in March but from a near four-year high in February but the dip wasn't anticipated. Still, it is the third consecutive month of growth in Chicago's economic activity, rare since 2022, though the pace of expansion slowed significantly. New orders and output continued to grow, but at a slower pace, while jobs decreased. However the Dallas Fed services PMI took quite a tumble to its steepest contraction in almost a year, and a big retreat from February for both their activity and outlook measures. Costs there are rising much faster than prices. The US is getting no relief from petrol and diesel prices, as they hit another high milestone. The gap between WTI and Brent is unusually narrow at present. In Canada, and perhaps unexpectedly. they reported a small expansion in economic activity in January from December (+0.1%) and a slightly faster expansion in February from January (-0.2%). In the face of the threats and bullying from their obnoxious southern neighbour, this is resilience that few expected. In China, major property developer Vanke posted an enormous loss for 2025, and said it is facing a wall of funding maturities. Vanke has survived because of Shenzhen government ownership support, although that is being dialled back too. Meanwhile, China reported better than expected industrial expansions, in their case for their official March factory PMI. And their services PMI also recorded improvement into expansion, again unexpected. Typically these official surveys have been more pessimistic than the unofficial ones from S&P Global, which won't be released for March until later today. They too are expected to record expansion. Japanese data for industrial production and retail sales, both for February, sagged and by a bit morte than anticipated. In Korea, they reported industrial production data that was surprisingly weak in February. Global air passenger travel rose a strong +6.1% in February from the same month in 2025, bolstered by the timing of Chinese New Year. In fact, domestic travel within China in February was up +12.5%. Overall international passenger travel was up +5.9% with the Asia/Pacific region rising +8.6%. Likely much of this expansion will be upended now with the March disruptions and sentiment retreats. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.31%, down -3 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$94 from yesterday, now at US$4641/oz. Silver is up +US$4 to US$74.50/oz. American oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$7.50 at just on US$104.50/bbl. Ship transit traffic in the Strait of Hormuz seem to be slowly returning, but on Iran's terms. The Kiwi dollar is +30 bps firmer against the USD from yesterday, now at 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down another -20 bps at 83.2 AUc. We are down little-changed against the yen. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just on 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +10 bps at just over 61.2. The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,646 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 1.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we are now in week five of a completely preventable global crisis. But first we should note that we are now touching up against the end of the month, and end of the first quarter. This is when fund managers and other large investors lock in their results for upcoming reporting. So there is a lot of position squaring activity at present, and that tends to skew financial market activity. But the fundamental drivers - economic activity, inflation, geopolitical events - are not stopping, so there is still substantial market reaction to those. That is driving serious risk aversion. And markets watch key policymakers too. Fed boss Powell was out speaking today to an economics class at Harvard. In answer to questions, he said distress in the private credit market looks more like a correction and not like a broader systemic event to them. He also said their would regard the inflation threats from the war on Iran as transitory, but that their patience was limited - given the fact that US inflation has been above 2% for five years now. The New York Fed boss Williams was also talking, and he seemed now more concerned with the jobs market, saying a rate cut is a real possibility if it weakens further. Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed's factory survey was a touch weaker in March than February on slowing new order growth. But their company outlook index dropped into negative territory and their outlook uncertainty index leapt. In China, they reported an enormous current account surplus of almost +US$¼ tln in Q4-2025, almost US$¾ tln for the year, one that is globally destabilising. Also we should note that countries that signed up to the Chinese Belt & Road system are finding that they are on the short end of that deal. The two items are likely related. India's factory production was up +6.0% in February from a year ago, better than expected. In Europe, their Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped in March on rising inflation expectations tied to the Middle East conflict. So it will be no surprise to learn that German inflation jumped in March, driven by fast-rising fuel costs to its highest in over two years (January 2024) at 2.7%. We should note that the aluminium price is on a sharp move higher again, approaching its mid-March post-pandemic record high. With Middle-East production damaged or out of service because they can't ship, China's dominance of the aluminium market seems likely now. And air cargo demand surged in February, not only in response to Chinese New Year demand, but businesses seemed to rush the sector to get goods shifted fearing the Middle East situation. Sharply rising fuel costs, fuel scarcity in parts of the world, and the severe disruption to key cargo hubs in the Gulf are major shifts. February air cargo activity was up +11% from a year earlier with the Asia/Pacific region up +13.6%. But how this played out in March, and will play out in subsequent month, are likely to be a highly volatile mix of 'urgency' restrained by sharply rising costs. It is worth noting too that concerns are rising that the oil and supply-chain problems are almost certainly going to provoke a global food crisis at some stage. Not only die to sharply higher costs, but sharply lower production at the same time. But that is yet to hit us all. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.34%, down -10 bps from yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$54 from yesterday, now at US$4547/oz. Silver is up +US$1 to US$70.50/oz. American oil prices are up another +US$3 at just over US$102.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is -50 USc lower at just on US$112/bbl. Ship transit traffic in the Strait of Hormuz seem to be slowly returning, but on Iran's terms. The Kiwi dollar is -30 bps lower against the USD from yesterday, now at 57.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 83.4 AUc. We are down -90 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -25 bps at just on 61.1. The bitcoin price starts today at US$67.359 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we are starting to see economic bite from Trump's war on Iran. There is corrosion everywhere today The OECD's latest economic update says global GDP growth is expected to hold at 2.9% in 2026 before rising slightly to 3.0% in 2027, driven by strong tech investment and easing tariffs. But the ongoing Middle East conflict makes these projections wobbly due to the energy market disruptions. Inflation forecasts were revised upward, with G20 advanced economies facing 4.0% headline inflation in 2026 they say, 1.2 percentage points higher than previously anticipated.. They see American GDP expansion go from +2.0% this year to +1.7% next year. For China, they see a shift from +4.4% in 2026 to 4.3% in 2027. For Japan, it is stable at +0.9% in both years. Their forecast for Australia in +2.3% growth this year, +2.4% next years, Back in the US, jobless claims dipped last week, but not by as much as seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 2.04 mln people on these benefits, down from 2.07 mln a year ago but up from 1.8 mln two years ago. Meanwhile the Kansas City Fed March factory survey was positive again in March, for a second consecutive month. The month-on-month indexes were all positive except for new export orders. The overnight US Treasury 7yr  bond auction brought similar results to the earlier 2 and 5 year events - lower offer volumes and much higher yields. This latest 7 year bond had a median yield of 4.19%, up from 3.74% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Bad management brings higher risk premiums. In China, state-owned China Eastern Airlines said it will buy 101 Airbus aircraft in a deal worth about US$16 bln, extending a run of big-ticket Airbus orders by major Chinese carriers. That will juice up Airbus's 2026 order book sharply. In Singapore, manufacturing production fell by -0.1% in February from a year ago, reversing the +12.9% surge in January. This February result was the first month of decline since August last year, driven by weaker output across nearly all sectors - except electronics. Overnight, Norway's central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.0%. But they do see a hiking possibility in 2026, a turn from where a cut was more likely. Global container freight rates rose +5% last week from the prior week, and are also now +5% higher than year ago levels. This latest rise makes these costs up +20% from the end of February. Outbound rates from China were the main driver in these latest rates and the overall index would have been much higher except for the decline in EU to US rates. That trade has shrivelled to a -29% year-on-year pullback. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates rose +3% in the past week but are -22% lower than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.42%, up +9 bps from yesterday at this time and its highest since July 2025.  The price of gold will start today down -US$173 from yesterday at US$4383/oz. Silver is down -US$4.50 at US$68/oz. American oil prices are up +US$4.50 at just over US$94.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$7 at just on US$108/bbl. Ship transit traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, already low, has dried up again. The Kiwi dollar is -50 bps lower against the USD from yesterday, now at 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.6 AUc. We are down -50 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are -30 bps lower at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -40 bps at just on 61.6. The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,909 and down -3.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it is becoming clearer that Iran holds the cards in the economic aspects of the Middle East conflict. Pointedly, so far no-one - not China Japan, nor NATO - has responded positively to Trump's call for naval help. Meanwhile in the US, even though crude prices retreated somewhat today, retail petrol prices there are up +0.5% today from yesterday, up +7% in a week, up +27% in a month. Away from Trump's war, American industrial production rose in February, but by far less than in January and that was enough to reduce the January year-on-year gain of +2.3% to a February equivalent of just +1.4%. This is a sharpish slowing that wasn't the expected +2.1% gain. It was their smallest month-on-month rise in six months. And the New York Fed's Empire State factory survey suggests it may have got worse in March. That survey did not grow unexpectedly. It came in with a 'steady' -0.2% dip when a +3.2 rise was expected. New order growth disappointed. Meanwhile the NAHB sentiment survey held steady at a good level as expected. But they are worried about the growing discounting required to maintain sales. In Canada, they reported a lower February CPI rate of 1.8% with their core inflation rate at 2.3%, both less than in January. Canada also reported housing starts which rose from January, maintaining a good level and about at the average level over the last five years. But they were +13.7% higher than year-ago levels, and actually their second best February level ever. The Bank of Canada meets next on Thursday (NZT) and no change to its 2.25% policy rate is anticipated. Across the Pacific, China's new home prices across 70 cities dropped -3.2% year-on-year in February, following a -3.1% decline in the previous month. Shanghai was the outlier with higher prices. But for house resales, nothing is rising, even in Shanghai which was down -6.5% for the year. Some are down almost -10% (Wuhan). But China's February retail surprised to the upside, rising +2.8% and much better than January's +0.9%. China's industrial production came in much better than expected as well, up +6.3% and well above the +5.1% expected and the +5.2% in the prior period. Beijing is pushing through 'pay reform' for middle managers at its state owned banks - and it is turning out to be far more brutal than those managers expected. Many are seeing their pay cut steeply, especially bonuses. And there is a retroactive aspect as well applying to their 2024 bonuses. Separately, India said its exports held steady in February, although its imports fell, allowing it to report a smaller trade deficit. Later today, the Australian central bank will review its cash rate target settings with a backdrop of high and rising inflation before the Middle East war started. The RBA is the first central bank of at least nine this week to review monetary policy in these changed circumstances. Markets have priced in a two-thirds chance of a +25 bps rate rise. Most analysts have come to the view it is the likely result too. The RBA is prioritising its inflation fighting mandate, they expect. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.23%, down -5 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today down another -US$34 from yesterday at US$4984/oz. Silver is holding at US$80.50/oz. American oil prices are down -US$3.50, at just under US$95.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$1 just over US$102/bbl. The Straits of Hormuz remain no-go areas for most with the situation still extremely unstable. The Kiwi dollar has risen today, up +70 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.9 AUc. We are up +10 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +60 bps at just under 62.2. The bitcoin price starts today at US$73,762 and up +3.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets are betting Trump will 'declare victory' over Iran soon and walk back his war. But the Straits of Hormuz are still effectively closed - to all but Iranian-linked vessels. Perhaps oddly, markets are assuming they will open to all 'soon'. The US Navy has escorted one tanker through. The betting on TACO is strong. But separately today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought little change to last week's full auction. That means those good prices were essentially maintained, so no sign yet that the global rise in dairy supply is hurting prices. In the US, the ADP weekly jobs report rose +15,500, the same as the prior week, a steadying after five weeks of modest gains. Existing US home sales rose marginally in February but that was better than expectations that they would fall. That leaves them -1.4% lower than year-ago levels. Despite the recent rebound, unsold inventory rose at a sharper rate. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell for a second consecutive month in February when it was expected to rise (marginally). The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 8 points to a net 8%. Today's UST 3yr bond auction brough another modest rise in yields from the prior equivalent event. In Canada, their travel to the US is down more than -30% in February compared to the pre-tariff period, replaced by much higher travelling to other places. Interestingly, visits by American to Canada are rising. Canada is also attracting notably more tourists from other countries too, presumably those avoiding the US. In Japan, machine tool orders remained especially strong in February, especially export orders. China's exports rose almost +22% in February from the same month a year ago, its best rise since the pandemic. Imports were up almost +20%. Their exports to New Zealand rose only +1.6% but their imports are up almost +26%. Their exports to Australia rose +32% while their imports were up +29%. Their February trade with the US was even stronger with exports up +27% and imports up +36%. In Malaysia, January industrial production expanded by +5.9% from a year ago, beating market estimates of a +5.4% rise and the previous month's +4.8% increase. Their factory sector posted even stronger rises. In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey showed consumers remain firmly pessimistic, although sentiment continues to show some resilience. Daily responses in their survey show a material weakening over the survey week. The results were less pessimism on current finances and attitudes towards major purchases. On the economy it reveals more unease near-term but less concern about the medium-term. Unemployment expectations pushed up above long-run average levels, led by the over-45s. Staying in Australia, the NAB business confidence survey found that business conditions were steady in February, but sentiment slipped, with confidence now in negative territory for the first time in almost a year, likely reflecting some caution in the ​wake of the February RBA rate hike. This survey didn't really pick up the more recent Middle East war effects because it was conducted from February ⁠23 ​to March 2 and so only ​caught the very beginning of the US-Israeli attack on Iran and subsequent spike ​in energy prices. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.14%, up +2 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$126 from yesterday at US$5229/oz. Silver is up +US$5 at US$89.50/oz today. American oil prices are down -US$9.50, at just under US$84.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$10.50 to be now just on US$88.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just on 59.5 USc. But against the Aussie we are down a sharp -80 bps at 82.2 AUc. We are up +10 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +10 bps at just under 63. The bitcoin price starts today at US$71,226 and up another +3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Self Created Valuation Boosts Apple Announces new Podcast push AI – A breakdown Playing them like a fiddle – Warner Brothers PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - A NEW CTP just announced - China releasing new AI models - AI - A breakdown - we are on overload - Big Employment news.... Markets - Self Created Valuation Boosts - Apple Announces new Podcast push - Playing them like a fiddle - Warner Brothers Quick Note - Going to rip up the playbook on something this week on TDI Podcast. Anyone who owns an annuity should listen to what is about to come on next Sundays show.....  No Agenda... Olympics - Anything to discuss? MONEY FOR ALL - The average tax refund is 10.9% higher so far this season, compared to about the same point in 2025, according to early filing data from the IRS. - The 2026 tax season opened Jan. 26, and the average refund amount was $2,290 as of Feb. 6, up from $2,065 about one year prior, the IRS reported Friday night. - As of Feb. 6, the total amount refunded was more than $16.9 billion, up 1.9% compared to last year, according to the IRS release. That figure reflects current-year returns only. - This is partly because there were excess-witholdings from last year on the rules changed and paycheck withholdings were not adjusted. This is a one time situation.. Emplyment - 4.3% - "Better" than expected payrolls number - A major revision was released last Wednesday. Overall 2025 job growth was much weaker than initially reported. The total net change for the full year 2025 was revised down from +584,000 jobs to just +181,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted) — an average of only about 15,000 jobs added per month instead of ~49,000. This made 2025 one of the weakest years for job creation in recent non-recession periods. - Employment levels were consistently overstated throughout 2025 by roughly 800,000 to over 1 million jobs, peaking around mid-year. For example: By March 2025, the level was revised down by 898,000. By December 2025 (preliminary), down by 1,029,000. - Monthly changes were also adjusted downward in most cases (e.g., August's originally reported -26,000 became a larger loss of -70,000; September's +108,000 became +76,000). - The revisions reflect normal annual benchmarking, but this one was unusually large (larger than the typical 0.2% average over the prior decade), likely due to factors like overestimation of business births or other data mismatches. - In short, the data reveals that the U.S. labor market in 2025 was significantly softer than the monthly headlines suggested at the time — job growth was overstated by a substantial margin, painting a picture of a much weaker employment picture for the year. AI Updates - While U.S. markets have been focused on the impact of Anthropic and Altruist's tools on software and financial services, China's tech giants have released AI models this week that have shown advancements in robotics and video generation. - Google is reporting that China's AI models are just MONTHS behind western models - However - is this progress? In a video demo, Alibaba showed a robot with pincers for hands that appeared to be able to count oranges, pick them up and place them in a basket. It was also shown taking milk out of a fridge. - Alibaba on Monday unveiled a new artificial intelligence model Qwen 3.5 designed to execute complex tasks independently, with big improvements in performance and cost that the Chinese tech giant claims beat major U.S. rival models on several benchmarks. - Zhipu AI — which trades as Knowledge Atlas Technology in Hong Kong said the model approaches Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 in coding benchmarks while surpassing Google's Gemini 3 Pro on some tests. - Shares of MiniMax also jumped Thursday after it launched its updated M2.5 open-source model with enhanced AI agent tools. Grok Update - Grok, Elon Musk's AI chatbot, has been gaining ground in the U.S. over the past months, data showed, even as it draws global censure and regulatory scrutiny after being used to generate a wave of non-consensual sexualized images of women and minors. - U.S. market share of the tool rose to 17.8% last month from 14% in December, and 1.9% in January 2025, according to data from research firm Apptopia. - Men are still the largest % users of Grok ~ 78% (down from 89% in April 2025) AI Market Share - ChatGPT's share slumped to 52.9% last month from 80.9% in January last year, while Gemini's grew to 29.4% from 17.3% over the same period. AI Market Share InfoGrapic and AI Understanding - Have we gone through this? - At its core, AI is technology that lets machines perform tasks that normally require human intelligence — things like understanding language, recognizing images, making decisions, or solving problems. - Modern AI (especially since ~2022) is dominated by machine learning — systems that learn patterns from huge amounts of data instead of being explicitly programmed rule-by-rule. - Inference is the "using" or "applying" phase of AI — when a trained model takes new input and produces an output / prediction / answer. Contrast with training (the "learning" phase): ------ Training ? Like a student studying for years: very compute-heavy, expensive, done once (or rarely) on massive servers/GPUs, adjusts billions of parameters based on examples. ------ Inference ? Like the student taking a test or doing their job: much faster, cheaper, runs on your phone/laptop/cloud, uses the fixed knowledge from training to respond instantly. - gentic AI takes regular AI (like chat models) to the next level: instead of just answering questions or generating text, these systems act autonomously to achieve goals with minimal human help. "Agentic" comes from "agency" — the ability to make decisions, plan, use tools, take actions, adapt, and even learn from results — like a smart digital employee rather than just a smart answer machine. AI Infographic Last AI Item - A shortage of memory chips is hammering profits, derailing corporate plans, and inflating price tags on various products, with the crunch expected to get worse. - The fundamental reason for the squeeze is the buildout of AI data centers, with companies like Alphabet and OpenAI buying up large shares of memory chip production, leaving consumer electronics producers fighting over a dwindling supply. - The resulting price spikes are causing concern, with some warning of "RAMmageddon" and others predicting that memory chip prices will go "parabolic", bringing lavish profits to some companies but painful prices to the rest of the electronics sector. Here is something: - Gallup will no longer track presidential approval ratings after nearly 90 years - Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the Washington, DC-based management company began tracking the president's job performance 88 years ago. - Gallup told USA TODAY it will no longer publish "favorability ratings of political figures," a decision it said "reflects an evolution in how Gallup focuses its public research and thought leadership." - Gallup said the ratings are now "widely produced, aggregated and interpreted, and no longer represent an area where Gallup can make its most distinctive contribution." - "Our commitment is to long-term, methodologically sound research on issues and conditions that shape people's lives," the company wrote, adding that its work will continue through the Gallup Poll Social Series, the Gallup Quarterly Business Review, the World Poll and more. - Seems like they are unable to SHAPE opinion due to social media etc.....? Apple Podcast Update - Big news! - Apple on Monday announced that it will bring a new integrated video podcast experience to Apple Podcasts this spring. - The move comes as video viewership continues to reshape podcasting. About 37% of people over age 12 watch video podcasts monthly, according to Edison Research. - The update brings Apple Podcasts more in-line with its competitors Spotify, YouTube and now Netflix, which have increasingly leaned into video podcasting. -“Twenty years ago, Apple helped take podcasting mainstream by adding podcasts to iTunes, and more than a decade ago, we introduced the dedicated Apple Podcasts app,” said Eddy Cue, Apple's senior vice president of Services, in a statement. “ - By bringing a category-leading video experience to Apple Podcasts, we're putting creators in full control of their content and how they build their businesses, while making it easier than ever for audiences to listen to or watch podcasts.” M&A - Texas Instruments Inc. has reached an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories Inc. for about $7.5 billion, deepening its exposure to several markets for chips. - Silicon Labs investors will receive $231 in cash for each share of the company's common stock and the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027. - The transaction still needs to win approval by investors in Silicon Labs and shares of Silicon Labs surged by 51% to $206.48 after the announcement. Inflation - This helps - PepsiCo, will cut prices on core brands such as Lay's and Doritos by up to 15% following a consumer backlash against several previous price hikes, the snacks and beverage maker said on Tuesday after it topped fourth-quarter results. Miran - Moving - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is leaving his post as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, CNBC has confirmed. - He joined the CEA in January 2025, but had been on leave from that post since last September when he filled the unexpired term of former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.- He reamins on Fed board No Biggie???? - There are some astonishing cased being reported of Bad AI in the operating room - JNJ's TruDi Navigation System - Since AI was added to the device, the FDA has received unconfirmed reports of at least 100 malfunctions and adverse events. - At least 10 people were injured between late 2021 and November 2025, according to the reports. Most allegedly involved errors in which the TruDi Navigation System misinformed surgeons about the location of their instruments while they were using them inside patients' heads during operations. - Cerebrospinal fluid reportedly leaked from one patient's nose. In another reported case, a surgeon mistakenly punctured the base of a patient's skull. In two other cases, patients each allegedly suffered strokes after a major artery was accidentally injured. Cuba - The main airport has putt out a bulletin that they are out of Jet Fuel - Blackouts and lack of other fuels are creating big problems - No airlines have stopped running at this point, but many will as they cannot refuel - This is a bigger problem for cargo planes (supplies) that may not be able to risk flying to Cuba as they will not be able to get out. Dalio Warning -  Legendary investor Ray Dalio said on Tuesday the world was “on the brink” of a capital war. - He said central banks and sovereign wealth funds were already preparing for measures like foreign exchange and capital controls. - "When money is weaponized using measures like trade embargoes, blocking access to capital markets, or using ownership of debt as leverage." - “Capital, money, matters,” Dalio said Tuesday. “We're seeing capital controls … taking place all over the world today, and who will experience that is questionable. So, we are on the brink — that doesn't mean we are in [a capital war now], but it means that it's a logical concern.” - Could this be why gold and siver are being hoarded (physical assets over digital currency? - Is China's edict to banks to diversify away from US Treasuries a sign? Self Boosted Valuation - Waymo is aiming to raise about $16 billion in a financing-round that would value it at nearly $110 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter. - Alphabet would provide about $13 billion to the autonomous driving firm while the rest would come from investors including Sequoia Capital, DST Global and Dragoneer Investment Group, the report added. - Soooooo - Waymo is a unit of Alphabet.... Alphabet providing 80% of the funding that boosts valuations..... Hmmmmmmmm Warner Brothers -  Warner Bros Discovery Inc is considering reopening sale talks with Paramount Skydance Corp after receiving its amended offer. - The Warner Bros board is discussing whether Paramount could offer a path to a superior deal, which may ignite a second bidding war with Netflix Inc. - Paramount submitted amended terms that addressed several concerns, including covering a fee owed to Netflix and offering to backstop a Warner Bros debt refinancing. Economics Coming Up - Short Week - plenty of Reports - Wednesday - Durable Goods, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes - Thursday - Philly Fed, Initial Claims - Friday: PCE, Personal Income and Spending, GDP for Q4 (3.6%) ----- New Home Sales, UMich Feb Final   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLAR Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Kia ora.Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news Taiwan's export prowess shows no signs of flagging.But first, US inflation expectations fell to 3.1% in January, the lowest in six months, compared to 3.4% in December. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for petrol, and a slight easing in rent rises. But they still expect food prices to rise 5.7% over the next year.The release of US labour market data, and their CPI update later in the week is where the focus is currently. And the US dollar is weak again, back near its post-pandemic low.In China, their economy is gearing up for the Year of the Horse. China's Spring Festival holiday starts a week from today on February 17 and runs to March 3, 2026.Taiwanese exports in January were spectacular yet again. They were up +70% year-on-year to an all-time high of US$66 bln in the month, following stunning +43% growth in the previous month. Analysts were expecting a +50% rise. It is a virtuous result with every category of their export trade rising. Exports to the US jumped +150%, and are now accounting for one third of their third export trade - about the same as it is toi China.Malaysia's industrial production rose +4.8% in December from a year ago, the sixth straight month it has expanded by more than +4%.In Australia, household spending fell -0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis. The only category that rose notably was alcohol sales. This follows rises of +1.0% in November and +1.4% in October. Household spending over the year remains high, up +5.0% in the year to December 2025.The UST 10yr yield is now just over 4.20%, and little-net change from yesterday.The price of gold will start today up +US$107 from yesterday at US$5073/oz. Silver is up a sharp +US$5.50 at US$83.50/oz after recovering from a 2026 low.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$64.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just under 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -½c at 85.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 63.9, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,013 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

APAC stocks eventually traded mixed after initially taking their cue from Wall Street, although volumes and news flow remained subdued as markets wound down for the holiday period.JPY extended its prior session's advances, and USD/JPY eventually dipped under 156.00, whilst the CNH saw notable strength. US President Trump said the US will keep the ships and oil seized near Venezuela.Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) said the Wegovy pill is approved in the US as the first oral GLP-1 treatment for weight management.European equity futures are indicative of an uneventful cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 U/C after cash closed -0.3% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Import Prices (Nov), Spanish GDP Final (Q3), US Richmond Fed (Dec), Durable Goods (Oct), GDP Advance (Oct), PCE Prices (Q3), Industrial Production, Consumer Confidence, Canadian GDP, BoC Minutes (Dec Meeting), Supply from US. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said US will keep ships and oil seized near Venezuela.European bourses are mixed on either side of the unchanged mark, US equity futures are mostly incrementally firmer ahead of US data.DXY is under pressure whilst the JPY continues to strengthen; Antipodeans benefit from strength in metals prices.JGBs lead global fixed income higher after PM Takaichi rejected any "irresponsible bond issuance or tax cuts", via a Nikkei interview.Crude benchmarks trade rangebound, whilst spot gold eyes USD 4.5k/oz to the upside.Looking ahead, highlights include US Richmond Fed (Dec), Durable Goods (Oct), GDP Advance (Oct), PCE Prices (Q3), Industrial Production, Consumer Confidence, Canadian GDP, BoC Minutes (Dec Meeting), Supply from US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain shares a long-term economic outlook that every business leader should be planning for now. With strong GDP and Industrial Production growth expected through 2029, the real risk is not the next few years but how prepared your business will be when the downturn arrives around 2030. Learn which markets are positioned to outperform, why waiting to react is costly, and how today's growth cycle creates rare opportunities for diversification, market share gains, and strategic acquisitions. Are you using the next four years wisely? Click here to buy our webinar, Strategic Shifts for Resiliency in the 2030s Great Depression, here → https://hubs.la/Q03VQwhz0

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news long term bond yields are on the move higher again with the UST 10yr at a 4 month high, but the Japanese yen is now at a 27 year high. The Australian equivalent is at a 2 year high and threatening a 14 year benchmark, while the NZGB 10 year is at a 5 month high.In the US, the top-line survey of inflation expectations seems stable at a highish 3.2% for the year ahead, 3.0% for 5 years ahead. But within that are some signals that have garnered attention. Expectations for food rose to 5.9%, petrol climbed to 4.1%, medical care surged to 10.1% (the highest since January 2014), college education increased to 8.4%, and rent jumped to 8.3%. The main reason the overall lid remained is that house price expectations fell. The survey indicated that consumers expect a worsening financial situation.The failure of the Trump Administration to get a deal out of China for agricultural exports is seeing them scrambling to support their farmers with direct subsidies.There was another US Treasury auction today, the ever-popular 3 year Note. But offer volumes fell more than -7% for this event. It delivered a median yield of 3.57%, little-changed from the 3.54% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Japan, a powerful earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.5 struck northeastern Japan late Monday night, with aaa a tsunami warning for coastal areas of Hokkaido issued.Japan's GDP contracted -0.6% in Q3 2025 from Q2, a larger fall than the flash estimate of a -0.4% decline and market forecasts for a -0.5% drop. The latest figure followed a downwardly revised -0.5% growth in Q2 and marked the first quarterly contraction since Q1 2024, with business spending slipping for the first time in three quarters.In China, they released November trade data overnight and their exports rose by +5.9% from a year ago to an eleven-month high, much better than the expected +3.8% rise and recovering from the -1.1% fall in October. There was a notable surge in exports to non-US markets. A lower than expected rise in imports delivered at trade balance exceeding +US$110 for the month and extending their rise that started with the Trump challenge in late 2024. Separation from the US has delivered a rising export dividend for China. For the eleven months of 2025 so far, the Chinese trade surplus has now exceeded US$1 tln.Over all of 2025 to the US, their exports fell -18% and their imports fell -13%. To Australia, China's exports are up +8% while imports are down -8%. To New Zealand, China's exports are up +4% while their imports are up +10%.As good as these export numbers are for China, they are also going into debt at an equally impressive rates. China's central government will likely issue more than CNY12 tln (US$1.7 tln) of new debt in 2026, with a fiscal deficit ratio of at least 4%. There is alarm in some quarters as the expansionist policies get the official tick..In Europe, German industrial production rose +1.8% in October from September, sharply outperforming market expectations for a -0.4% decline. It was the strongest monthly gain since March. Year on year it is up +0.8%. The Germans measure this metric in real, inflation-adjusted terms.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up another +3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4191/oz, and down -US$6 from yesterday.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is marginally softer from yesterday, now at just under 57.7 USc, down -10 bps. Against the Aussie though we are up +10 bps at just on 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.9, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,846 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading though stocks ended a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 86bbps, 30bps, and 17bps respectively. Themes of the day highlighted in mixed headlines regarding Microsoft customer AI adoption versus Marvell data center growth. Softening labor market, support for more Fed cuts, also highlighted in November ADP private payrolls falling 32K versus expectations to increase by~10K, while Industrial Production met, and ISM Services and S&P Services PMI came in ahead. December FOMC decision on deck for next week, with probably of additional 25bp cut just below 90%.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are absorbing some conflicting American data, and moving sideways today, with the USD easing.There were two services PMIs for the giant US economy out today. The ISM version edged up slightly for November, notable because it was expected to edge down. And the result is the best in nine months for this metric. The continued expansion in both business activity and new orders drove this outcome. Similarly, the S&P Global version for the US service sector reported an expansion although less than in October. Both surveys noted high embedded inflation however.US industrial production rose +0.1% in September from August, following a downwardly revised -0.3% drop in August. This means from a year ago, American industrial production is up +1.6%. Better than a decline but nothing like how the tariff-effects were sold. This activity was far better in the Obama years.But the ADP private sector payrolls report for November brought tough news. Businesses cut -32,000 jobs in November, following an upwardly revised +47,000 gain in October. Analysts were expecting this report to show a +10,000 rise based on ADP's weekly reporting. It is the biggest decline in payrolls since March 2023, led by a -120,000 drop at small businesses. We won't get the official non-farm payrolls report for November until December 17 (NZT), in its delayed restart.And the volume of mortgage applications in the US fell by -1.4% from the previous week in the last week of November to the lowest level in nearly three months. And that happened even though the key mortgage rates fell to a four week low.US vehicle sales were modest in November. They rose from October to 15.6 mln units but that is a long way down from the 16.7 mln in November 2024.Across the Pacific in China, their services sector continues to expand, driven by a sustained increase in new business, though the expansion slowed since October.China's local government debt continues to balloon as the lingering real estate slump has led to decreased income from property sales, pushing local government bond issuance for the year to a record high. The total owed by local governments and the local government financing vehicles that fund their projects now sits at a remarkable ¥134 tln (NZ$33 tln).In the EU, producer prices were little changed in October from September, but from a year ago they have dipped -0.2%. So no inflation pressures from this direction.In Australia, their economy grew less than expected in Q3-2025. Economic activity expanded +0.4% from the June quarter. Markets had expected a +0.7% expansion as it had in Q2-2025. Still, it was the 16th straight quarter of expansion. On a yearly basis, their GDP rose +2.1%, less than forecasts of +2.2% and after a +2.0% growth in Q2.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4218/oz, and up +US$32 from yesterday.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$663/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, still at just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie though we are unchanged at just on 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have also held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,535 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

APAC stocks were pressured following the sell-off stateside, where tech was hit on valuation and China AI race concerns, while sentiment was also not helped by recent hawkish-leaning Fed rhetoric and mixed Chinese activity data.Chinese activity data was mixed, in which Industrial Production disappointed and Retail Sales marginally topped estimates, but both showed a slowdown from the previous, while Chinese House Prices continued to contract.US BLS said it is working on a plan to release the delayed data and stated, "We appreciate your patience while we work to get this information out ASAP, as it may take time to fully assess the situation and finalise revised release dates", according to WSJ.UK PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves reportedly ditched budget plans to increase income tax rates, according to FT.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.8% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index (Oct), French/Spanish CPI Final (Oct), EU Trade Balance (Sep), EU GDP Flash Estimate (Q3), Speakers including ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & Lane, Fed's Bostic, Schmid & Logan, Earnings from Swiss Re, Allianz & Siemens Energy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain provides an update on the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. After record highs earlier this year, uncertainty has been cut in half, setting the stage for accelerating growth in both CAPEX and Industrial Production. Taylor explains why this shift supports ITR Economics' positive outlook through 2026 and what it means for business leaders preparing for expansion. Are you ready to keep pace with growth?

In this episode of Crazy Wisdom, host Stewart Alsop sits down with Harry McKay Roper, founder of Imaginary Space, for a wide-ranging conversation on space mining, AI-driven software, crypto's incorruptible potential, and the raw entrepreneurial energy coming out of Argentina. They explore how technologies like Anthropic's Claude 4.5, programmable crypto protocols, and autonomous agents are reshaping economics, coding, and even law. Harry also shares his experiences building in Buenos Aires and why hunger and resilience define the city's creative spirit. You can find Harry online at YouTube, Twitter, or Instagram under @HarryMcKayRoper.Check out this GPT we trained on the conversationTimestamps00:00 – Stewart Alsop welcomes Harry McKay Roper from Imaginary Space and they jump straight into space mining, Helium-3, and asteroid gold. 05:00 – They explore how Bitcoin could hold value when space mining floods markets and discuss China, America, and global geopolitics. 10:00 – Conversation shifts to Argentina, its economic scars, cultural resilience, and overrepresentation in startups and crypto. 15:00 – Harry reflects on living in Buenos Aires, poverty, and the city's constant hustle and creative movement. 20:00 – The focus turns to AI, Claude 4.5, and the rise of autonomous droids and software-building agents. 25:00 – They discuss the collapse of SaaS, internal tools, and Harry's experiments with AI-generated code and new workflows. 30:00 – Stewart compares China's industry to America's software economy, and Harry points to AI, crypto, and space as frontier markets. 35:00 – Talk moves to crypto regulation, uncorruptible judges, and blockchain systems like Kleros. 40:00 – They debate AI consciousness, embodiment, and whether a robot could meditate. 45:00 – The episode closes with thoughts on free will, universal verifiers, and a playful prediction market bet on autonomous software.Key InsightsSpace and Economics Are Colliding – Harry McKay Roper opens with the idea that space mining will fundamentally reshape Earth's economy. The discovery of asteroids rich in gold and other minerals highlights how our notions of scarcity could collapse once space resources become accessible, potentially destroying the terrestrial gold economy and forcing humanity to redefine value itself.Bitcoin as the New Standard of Value – The conversation naturally ties this to Bitcoin's finite nature. Stewart Alsop and Harry discuss how the flood of extraterrestrial gold could render traditional stores of value meaningless, while Bitcoin's coded scarcity could make it the only incorruptible measure of worth in a future of infinite resources.China and the U.S. in Industrial Tug-of-War – They unpack the geopolitical tension between China's industrial dominance and America's financial hegemony. Harry argues the U.S. is waking up from decades of outsourcing, driven by China's speed in robotics and infrastructure. This dynamic competition, he says, is good—it forces America to build again.Argentina's Culture of Hunger and Resilience – Living in Buenos Aires reshaped Harry's understanding of ambition. He contrasts Argentina's hunger to survive and create with the complacency of wealthier nations, calling the Argentine spirit one of “movement.” Despite poverty, the city's creative drive and humor make it a living example of resilience in scarcity.AI Is Making Custom Software Instant – Harry describes how Claude 4.5 and new AI coding tools like Lovable, Cursor, and GPT Engineer make building internal tools trivial. Instead of using SaaS products, companies can now generate bespoke software in minutes with natural language, signaling the end of traditional software development cycles.Crypto and AI Will Merge Into Incorruptible Systems – Harry envisions AI agents on-chain acting as unbiased judges or administrators, removing human corruption from law and governance. Real-world tools like Kleros, founded by an Argentine, already hint at this coming era of algorithmic justice and decentralized decision-making.Consciousness and the Limits of AI – The episode closes on a philosophical note: can a robot meditate or clear its mind? Stewart and Harry question whether AI could ever experience consciousness or free will, suggesting that while AI may mimic thought, the uniquely subjective and embodied nature of human awareness remains beyond automation—for now.

APAC stocks were higher amid tailwinds from recent trade-related rhetoric, including US President Trump's comments on Friday that 100% tariffs are not sustainable and that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi.Nikkei 225 surged to a fresh all-time high above the 49,000 level amid a reignition of the Takaichi trade with the LDP leader on track to become Japan's first female PM following an agreement to form a coalition with Japan's Innovation Party.In China, PBoC maintained LPRs as expected, whilst Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales either matched or topped forecasts, and the CPC Central Committee is also holding a four-day closed-door meeting through to Thursday.US President Trump said on Friday that they are getting along with China, and it looks like the meeting with China will go forward, while he could move the November 1st deadline up if he wanted. Trump added that they will make a deal that will be good for both countries and thinks they will be in a strong position in trade talks with China.Israel's Channel 12 reported that Israel was attacking Gaza, while the Israeli military said Hamas carried out multiple attacks against Israeli forces beyond the ‘yellow line', violating the ceasefire; both sides later said they will adhere to the ceasefire once again.S&P lowered France to 'A+' from 'AA-'; Outlook Stable, while it cited heightened risks to budgetary consolidation; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.8% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices (Sep), Canadian Producer Prices (Sep), US Leading Index (Sep), New Zealand Trade (Sep), CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Speakers including ECB's Schnabel & RBA's Jones, Supply from EU & Italy, Earnings from Sandvik, Zions Bancorp & Cleveland Cliffs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – key macro releases, including CPI, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production data, along with the remains of the Q2 corporate earnings season.

Fed Decision and Market Reactions - July 30th Recap In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel recaps the outcomes of the recent Federal Reserve meeting held over the past two days. The Fed decided to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, which led to mixed reactions in the market. Despite initial market rallies, comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell led to a reversal, resulting in a net loss for the DOW and modest movements in the S&P and Nasdaq. Significant data discussed includes the better-than-expected Q2 GDP figures and fluctuating private payroll and housing sales data. Brian also touches on the historical context of industrial production and productivity growth post-2008 financial crisis. The episode closes with a Q&A segment, addressing the broader economic trends and their implications. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:08 Fed Meeting Insights and Market Reactions 01:51 Economic Calendar Highlights 04:11 Industrial Production and Productivity Post-Financial Crisis 05:30 Q&A and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this week's episode, we cover a wide range of reports that touch on inflation, consumer spending, manufacturing activity, and what might come out of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 30. We also analyze the moves in both the bond markets and equities caused by the rumors of President Trump's desire to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Lastly, we discuss the potential for antitrust activity among the most influential companies in the technology sector, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 00:57 – The Consumer Price Index – a measure of inflation – increased in both overall and core (which excludes food and energy prices) figures in June, both month over month and year over year. The next release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) – another measure of inflation – is expected on July 31.02:03 – The U.S. Census Bureau released its monthly report on advance monthly retail sales, which was positive for the economy and showed an 0.6% increase in consumer spending for June.02:46 – The Federal Reserve's latest Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report showed a 0.3% uptick in manufacturing in June, which was a very welcome sign because April and May figures were relatively flat, and March was negative.03:27 – The Fed released its Beige Book report, which comes out in advance of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, it shows cautiously positive signs across the twelve districts, with five reporting slight or modest gains, five with flat activity, and modest declines for the remaining two.04:12 – We note three themes to pay attention to over the next few weeks in addition to the upcoming FOMC meeting: President Trump's ongoing or extended pause on tariffs, the PCE inflation report, and updated figures on the labor market.05:08 – Because the CPI data was higher than expected, market expectations of the Fed issuing a July rate cut are down to under 5%, while expectations of a September rate cut are around 60%. Still, a growing contingency is betting on the next rates cuts coming as late as the fourth quarter of this year or not at all until 2026.06:27 – The bond market reacts to this week's economic news with front-end yields, which are more sensitive to Fed policy, moving lower more rapidly than longer-ended yields, which are more sensitive to the economy and inflation.07:56 – The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (“the MOVE Index”,) – which tracks volatility in the bond market – spiked on reports that Trump was thinking of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but quickly came back down and remains stable, signaling a resilient bond market.09:56 – An overall analysis of the economy and markets considering this week's rumors of Powell's potential ouster, the more likely potential of his serving out his full term, and conversations of who might come next. We look to historical precedent during Richard Nixon's presidency for what might happen in the future.13:29 – The equities market continues to see all-time highs and will likely remain high in August before anticipated cooling beginning in September. Technology sector stocks lead the market rally, with some lagging in healthcare and consumer staples.17:36 – Stocks of the Magnificent 7 are buoying the markets partly because of their high trading volume and concentration. More singularly focused companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA seem immune from government interference, but more-diversified companies like Meta and Alphabet might be more susceptible to anti-trust efforts.20:19 – The overall economic outlook is positive for now. Recession fears and tariff-related volatility are coming down, but can come back at any moment. The implications for your portfolio are to balance risk and remain diversified to offset potential future fluctuations.Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law?Key Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

Positive Market Trends and Economic Indicators Update In this episode of Dividend Cafe, hosted by Brian Szytel on Wednesday, July 16th, the positive movements in the financial markets are highlighted, including a rise in the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq, and a drop in the 10-year yield. The episode discusses the significantly cooler than expected Producer Price Index (PPI) for June, which aligns with favorable inflation targets and hints at potential reductions in consumer prices. Other positive economic signals include an increase in industrial production and optimistic comments in the Fed's latest page book. Additionally, Brian addresses viewer questions about the stability of New York City bonds amidst a potential declining tax base and the feasibility of replacing income tax with a consumption tax, providing detailed insights into these financial concerns. The episode concludes with a preview of the upcoming economic data releases for the remainder of the week. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:08 Market Overview: A Positive Day 00:34 Producer Price Index Insights 01:50 Industrial Production and Economic Activity 02:31 Financial Sector Highlights 03:12 Q&A: New York City Bonds and Tariffs 05:19 Upcoming Economic Indicators 05:36 Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

US President Trump says he is working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st. Also notes that pharma tariffs will probably begin at month-end and initial tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be lowEuropean bourses are mixed having clambered off early morning lows, Autos/Tech lags following results from Renault and ASML.US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark, NQ lags as it digests ASML's results where it walked back on its 2026 growth outlook amid tariff uncertainty.DXY essentially flat awaiting US PPI, GBP digests hot inflation metrics.EGBs slightly heavy into the MMF, Gilts lag on CPI, USTs flat before PPI.Looking ahead, US PPI, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation, Speakers including Fed's Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams. Earnings from J&J, PNC, BAC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the lacklustre handover from Wall St.US President Trump says he is working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st.European equity futures indicate a marginally softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.DXY is fractionally softer after gaining again yesterday, EUR/USD has returned to a 1.16 handle, Cable sits sub-1.34 pre-CPI.France's Marine Le Pen warned that if French PM Bayrou does not revise his public spending plan they "will seek to topple him".Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, US PPI, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation, Fed's Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams, Supply from Germany, Earnings from J&J, PNC, BAC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, ASML & Sandvik.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Contact us today to learn more about how you can benefit from Financial Resilience! → https://hubs.la/Q035Qlcs0 This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain highlights US Industrial Production, noting it is gaining momentum and is forecasted to improve steadily through 2026. What are the main sectors driving this growth? Are you positioning your business to make the most of the growth ahead? Watch the full episode to learn more!

Tim Bohen focuses on companies impacted by the Israel/Iran conflict and reacts to the latest economic data. “I am very, very bullish America and where it's headed,” he says, and was disappointed by the latest Industrial Production numbers because of that. However, he acknowledges it will take years for manufacturing reshoring to make a noticeable impact. He reflects on his “buy-the-dip” call in April and says he'll keep buying now.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

APAC stocks traded mixed/mostly lower with the region failing to coattail on Wall Street's gains, as geopolitical angst kept risk subdued.US President Trump posted that "Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!" before cutting his G7 trip short, stoking fears of a US military offensive. Sentiment later stabilised after CBS reported that the US is not joining Israel offensively in its military operations against Iran.BoJ maintained its rate at 0.5% as expected via unanimous vote, and is to reduce the amount of monthly JGB purchases by about JPY 200bln each quarter from April 2026 onward (as telegraphed); Tamura dissented on the taper plan.Japanese PM Ishiba and US President Trump did not reach a tariff agreement, but confirmed they are to continue tariff talks, according to Fuji TV.European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.6% after cash closed with gains of 1.0% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include German ZEW, US Export/Import Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, BoJ Press Conference, BoC Minutes, G7 Leaders' Summit, IEA OMR, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump says he wants "a real end," with Iran "giving up entirely" on nukes”, via CBS's Jacobs.US President Trump says the EU is not yet offering a fair deal, there is a chance of a deal with Japan but they are "tough". Pharma tariffs coming soon.Stocks hit as Iran-Israel strikes continue and Trump posts that "everyone" should evacuate Tehran.FX markets in narrow ranges awaiting US Retail Sales; incremental strength in JPY post-BoJ, but Ueda sparked some weakness thereafter.Two-way action for JGBs; USTs just about firmer while EGBs & Gilts reside in the red.Crude moves higher as Trump cuts his G7 trip short and now awaiting developments from the situation in Iran.Looking ahead, US Export/Import Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, BoC Minutes, G7 Leaders' Summit.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were predominantly lower following the mixed handover from Wall St, where the major indices were somewhat choppy and small caps underperformed as yields edged higher.US equity futures were lacklustre with participants awaiting comments from Fed Chair Powell and a slew of US data releases.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.Iran is ready to sign an agreement with certain conditions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and would commit to never making nuclear weapons, as well as getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, according to a top advisor to the Supreme Leader cited by NBC News.Russian President Putin was not on a list of negotiators the Kremlin published for talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index, UK GDP, EZ Employment & GDP, US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, IEA OMR, Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & de Guindos, Fed Chair Powell & Barr, BoE's Dhingra, Supply from US.Earnings from Applied Materials, Take-Two, Alibaba, Walmart, Deere, Deutsche Telekom, Siemens, Allianz, Merck, Thyssenkrupp, RWE, Siemens, National Grid, United Utilities & Richemont.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European equities are subdued awaiting US data and Fed Chair Powell; US equity futures also tilt lower (ES -0.6%).DXY is subdued and contained whilst havens seen some inflows amid the broader risk tone.Fixed income benchmarks trade slightly firmer into US data and Fed Chair Powell's speech. Crude futures are curtailed by Trump suggesting the US is getting close to a deal with Iran, while metals await data & Powell.Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, PPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, IEA OMR, Speakers include ECBʼs de Guindos; Fed Chair Powell & Barr, BoEʼs Dhingra. Earnings from Applied Materials, Take-Two, Alibaba, Walmart, Deere.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

“Watchdog” NGO attacks ivermectin as quack cancer fix—while studies support its potential benefits; China tariffs will impact supplements for humans—but also key nutritional ingredients for food, agriculture; Supreme Court rules on flavored vape products aimed at kids—as 17 year old cheerleader sidelined with “popcorn lung”; Tips for dealing with spring allergies.

In this episode of Uncommon Sense with Ginny Robinson, I'm giving my take (to the best of my ability—because I'm not a tariff expert and neither are most of the people chiming in right now) on Trump's gutsy new tariff move. It's the one that's got half the country cheering and the other half clutching their pearls. While the media yells “economic suicide,” I'm here to suggest that this strategy might actually work—but not overnight. We'll talk about the possibility of long-term gain, the reality of short-term discomfort, and the cultural obsession with instant results when what's often required is patience. I will also go over our collective short attention spans and why longer attention spans are needed for understanding complex issues like this. Every answer won't fit in a 15 second soundbite. At the end of the day, we'll have to pray, wait, and see. Some of the smartest plays take time to unfold.—https://noblegoldinvestments.com/learn/gold-and-silver-guide/?utm_campaign=21243613394&utm_source=g&utm_medium=cpc&utm_content=&utm_term=noble%20gold&seg_aprod=&ad_id=698073353663&oid=2&affid=1&utm_source=google&affiliate_source=googleads_brand_bmbc&utm_term=noble%20gold&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAADQ2DzJSJ_mi5cJo8dO2FNUs7uNy-&gclid=CjwKCAjwktO_BhBrEiwAV70jXtjSCyioSM2Hz1McTAlR3f8t3KCDDN3-XBWLaIzwJmiEGe0ztxIk5RoCnM0QAvD_BwE

2025 ITR Economics Summit→ https://hubs.la/Q035QkjZ0 Contact us today to learn more about how you can benefit from Financial Resilience! → https://hubs.la/Q035Qlcs0 This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain shares encouraging news – US Industrial Production is approaching Phase B, Accelerating Growth, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 and 2026 for the industrial economy. While it is normal to feel the negative effects from the past year despite this positive trend, tune in to discover how you can best prepare for the coming growth ahead!

Joe Cantu provides the Cantu Tactical Wealth Management 2025 Stock Market forecast as of February 16, 2025.  He shows charts of the GDP, Gross Domestics Product, report for the United States.  He display several other economic reports such as Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Employment.  The Magnificent seven stocks are discussed with the performance for 2024.   There is an interesting comparison of the S&P 500 Size weighted INDEX and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted INDEX for 2024 performance.  This is a good video for retirement accounts and money management ideas.Link: "What is An ETF?" https://youtu.be/6ogG3qzF15EMagnificent 7 links: "What Are the Magnificent Seven Stocks?", https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/investing/magnificent-7-stocks?utmhttps://youtu.be/UrYxlJ31r2I Youtube Link:

S&P Futures are trading slightly lower this morning with the pause in implementations of tariffs remaining the key headline. The key here is that it allows countries the opportunity to negotiate trade barriers ahead of any tariff action being implemented. Later this morning there are economic reports on Retail Sales and Industrial Production. ABNB, DKNG, FROG, GT, ROKU & WYNN are all higher after releasing their earnings reports. Monday is a holiday, on Tuesday morning watch for earnings from BIDU, FLR, GPC & MDT. The House Budget Committee passed a Budget Resolution and it will not go to the full House for a vote. Hong Kong markets surged as China's President is meeting with business leaders in an effort to expand growth. Oil prices are moving higher as tariff announcements are delayed.

European bourses & US futures began the session mixed but have deteriorated on geopols; Luxury lifted by Hermes post-earnings.USD remains pressured post-Trump tariff announcement, Antipodeans lead.Bonds retain a bearish bias but are off lows as geopolitics drives recent price actionGas continues to deflate, crude rangebound & metals advance.Russia has said its officials are not attending the Munich conference, US VP Vance & Ukraine's Zelensky set to meet at 11:00EST; recent remarks from Zelensky have tempered recent optimismLooking ahead, US Import/Export Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation & Manufacturing Output, BoC SLOOS, Speakers including & Fed's Logan.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump signed a memorandum to introduce a reciprocal tariff plan; delayed implementation provided optimism regarding negotiations.APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive handover from Wall St; S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed with gains of over 1%.European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.8% on Thursday.USD is steady after yesterday's heavy selling. EUR/USD trades around 1.0450 and Cable sits above 1.2550.Looking ahead, highlights include Germany Wholesale Price Index, EZ Employment, US Import/Export Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation & Manufacturing Output, BoC SLOOS, Speakers including ECB's Panetta & Fed's Logan, Earnings from Moderna, Hermes, Safran, Segro & NatWest.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Geoff Bailey, Logistics Project Manager at minerals giant Imerys, describes the company's operations and the wide variety of end customers using silicates and other minerals in a conversation with Craig and JP. We discuss the importance of strategic site selection and transportation networks in bringing minerals to market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

APAC stocks were mixed in mostly rangebound trade after the uninspiring handover from Wall St and despite encouraging Chinese GDP and activity data.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy with only mild support seen after GDP, Industrial Production & Retail Sales beat expectations with China's economy growing 5.4% Y/Y (exp. 5.0%) in Q4 and by 5.0% (exp. 4.9%) for 2024.DXY lacked conviction following the headwinds from a dovish Fed Waller; USD/JPY initially languished at its lowest in nearly a month; Antipodeans saw a muted reaction to Chinese data.Israel agreed to the Gaza hostage deal and the cabinet is to meet on Friday, according to Israeli media; Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said he will resign from the government if the Gaza ceasefire deal is approved.European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed with gains of 1.5% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Industrial Production, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, Comments from ECB's Cipollone, Earnings from SLB, Fastenal, Truist, State Street & Citizens.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Jerome Powell's rate cut, market drops, economic risks, inflation, and the future of the economy.Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldFor 20% off your Momentous order, head to https://livemomentous.com and use code GOLD.Laughing Cats https://open.spotify.com/artist/2f3z6IPGfomCl9FsJeyb8dIn this milestone 1000th episode of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast, Peter broadcasts from an unconventional setup due to technical issues, as he covers a dramatic day in the markets. Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve announces a 25 basis points interest rate cut to meet market expectations, but the stock market reacts negatively with significant losses. Peter discusses the historic losing streak in the Dow, investor optimism around speculative assets, and the financial risks posed by an expensive market amidst rising inflation and interest rates. He critiques Jerome Powell's perception of a strong U.S. economy and labor market, highlighting negative data revisions and continuing economic vulnerabilities. Peter also addresses the implications of rising U.S. deficits, government spending, and a surging dollar on global inflation. He predicts further turbulence for the housing and financial markets, the potential for a bear market, and the likelihood of resumed Fed easing measures. Schiff concludes with insights on gold and silver investments, market disconnects, and political dynamics impacting economic policies.

Mining Stock Daily provides an update on Sierra Madre Gold and Silver's La Guitarra Mine, discussing the recent announcement of industrial production and the path towards commercial production. The discussion highlights production numbers, market valuation, and future projections for the company, including exploration plans and alignment with shareholders.

Collective Mining has discovered a new silver zone at Guayabales. Newcore Gold and Arizona Sonoran Copper has met test results to report. Defiance Silver published a mineral resource estimate for Tepal. Fortuna Mining updated its Mineral Reserves and Resource at Séguéla. Kingfisher Metals announced a financing. Sierra Madre Gold and Silver announced industrial production has begun at the Guitarra mine processing plant in Estado de Mexico. This episode of Mining Stock Daily is brought to you by...  Arizona Sonoran Copper Company (ASCU:TSX) is focused on developing its brownfield copper project on private land in Arizona. The Cactus Mine Project is located less than an hour's drive from the Phoenix International airport. Grid power and the Union Pacific Rail line situated at the base of the Cactus Project main road. With permitted water access, a streamlined permitting framework and infrastructure already in place, ASCU's Cactus Mine Project is a lower risk copper development project in the infrastructure-rich heartland of Arizona.For more information, please visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.arizonasonoran.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Vizsla Silver is focused on becoming one of the world's largest single-asset silver producers through the exploration and development of the 100% owned Panuco-Copala silver-gold district in Sinaloa, Mexico. The company consolidated this historic district in 2019 and has now completed over 325,000 meters of drilling. The company has the world's largest, undeveloped high-grade silver resource. Learn more at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://vizslasilvercorp.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Minera Alamos is a gold developer and producer with its first low capex mine, Santana, continuing to work through start-up development. The company is also advancing the Cerro de Oro project through the permitting process. Minera is built around its operating team which brought 4 mines into production in Mexico over the last 13 years. It is fully funded with over $20-million dollars in working capital. Learn more at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mineraalamos.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

S&P Futures are trading lower this morning in a reaction to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the Fed is not in a rush to lower rates. Put volumes soar in drug stocks as President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic and critic of federal health agencies, to be his Secretary of Health and Human Services. Two key economic reports due out this morning, Retail Sales and Industrial Production. SEC filings displaying position adjustments at major funds continue to come in, AAPL is seeing an elevated number of firms existing positions in the last quarter. In Europe, stocks have gone from flat two lower as anxiety builds ahead of the U.S. markets open. Oil prices are slightly lower due to global demand concerns.

Weakness in today's Industrial Production print is one indicator that Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders says create bumps in the Fed's road ahead. Even in stronger reports like Retail Sales, weaker sales in electronics can create trouble for the holiday shopping season. Liz Ann also looks into the connection between stocks and yields. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Is the Fed's latest rate cut a sign of turbulent times ahead or a smart move to sustain growth?In this week's episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, examine the Federal Reserve's significant decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (or half a percentage point) — the first reduction since March 2020. This pivotal move carries major implications for investors, the economy, and overall market sentiment. Ryan and Sonu explore the reasoning behind the Fed's policy shift and explain what it means for those managing portfolios in today's financial landscape.Are we looking at a new phase of economic momentum, or are there hidden risks on the horizon? The hosts offer a detailed analysis, along with practical advice for financial advisors and investors adjusting their strategies in response to this new economic reality.Key Highlights:Federal Reserve's Rate Cut: The Fed's first interest rate reduction in over three years is framed as a strategic risk management tool designed to stabilize employment and promote sustained growth rather than a reaction to looming recession fearsResilient Economic Data: Despite the rate cut, key sectors like industrial production and retail sales continue to show strength. Robust growth in high-tech industries and online shopping underscores the overall resilience of the economyConsumer Debt and Health: While consumer debt has hit record highs, it remains manageable. Low delinquency rates and minimal bankruptcy filings suggest that household finances remain relatively stableStock Market Gains: Recent stock market gains are driven by strong corporate profit growth rather than inflated valuations. With healthy corporate balance sheets and expanding profit margins, the outlook for continued market growth remains positiveHousing Market Rebound: Although mortgage rates remain high, improvements in housing permits and starts suggest that the Fed's rate cuts are beginning to stimulate activity in the housing sector, a key driver of economic growthBond Market Reactions: Long-term treasury yields have risen despite the rate cut — a positive signal indicating confidence in the economy's future growth rather than fears of a potential recessionFuture Market Outlook: Historical data shows that markets often perform well after major Fed rate cuts, particularly when supported by strong economic momentum, as is currently the caseAnd much more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

htt Sarah Kaye has always been drawn to the tactile world of 3D creation. Fond memories of her mum's homemade play-dough and her insistence on clay projects in art class foreshadowed her future path. Sarah studied Product Design at Parsons School of Design and dug deeply into her minor in Ceramic for Industrial Production under the guidance of  Marek Cecula. However, recognizing the practicalities of life after graduation, Sarah ventured into advertising as a Strategic Planner, where she discovered unexpected parallels of the design process and understanding consumer behavior - thinking about product use and the consumer's experince of them. In Seattle, Sarah was accepted to the two year Pottery Northwest residency program, the last group of residents to be guided by the delight that is Wally Bivens. Starbucks recruited Sarah for a project while still in the program there, as did a local espresso machine manufacturer. Twelves years later, SKaye Ceramics is based in Seattle's Georgetown and Sarah has close ties to the coffee community who have been the patron saints of her small business. http://ThePottersCast.com/1023