Podcasts about PCE

What happens when economic volatility, tariff pressure, AI disruption, and shifting distributor behavior all collide in the same quarter?In this episode, Kevin and Tom unpack a whirlwind week inside wholesale distribution, revealing how new data, emerging AI workflows, and tariff rulings are reshaping strategy across the channel.Listeners gain a front-row view into the real conversations shaping 2025: revenue headwinds, inventory tightening, economic softening, distributor risk posture, and how AI agents are redefining customer-facing operations.What You'll Learn:Why distributors are tightening inventory positions heading into 2025, and what “flat inventories” actually signal about downstream demand.How upcoming tariff rulings and active lawsuits (like Costco's) may reshape pricing models, contract structures, and channel profitability.Why AI agents from Amazon, Salesforce, and emerging tools will transform inside sales, service platforms, counter operations, and multi-branch workflows.How economic signals, PCE, sentiment scores, personal spending, and Fed pacing, will shape capital planning into mid-2025.The competitive gap forming between distributors who unify data vs. those still operating silo-based systems.Episode Highlights:03:11 – Why this past holiday week felt like a 3-week sprint for operators and sales teams10:44 – Breaking down the PCE report, sentiment data, and the Fed's rate-cut trajectory18:26 – Are mortgage rates returning to the “fours”? A practical take on borrowing costs27:15 – Mohamed El-Erian's latest economic lens and why 2 percent inflation may be the wrong benchmark40:02 – Flat U.S. inventory levels and what that means for 2025 distributor demand53:19 – Costco's bold lawsuit over tariffs, and whether refunds to consumers are even logistically possible01:05:12 – Why Amazon's new AI agents increase competitive pressure on distributors01:17:50 – The rise of blueprint-driven AI takeoff tools (Home Depot, Lowe's, and the coming B2B wave)Tools, Frameworks & Strategies Mentioned:AI Agents for Distribution Ops (Amazon Connect, Salesforce Agentforce)Data Unification for AI Readiness (LeadSmart Platform + Data Cloud methodology)Synthetic Data for forecasting and demand simulationB2B Digital Takeoff Systems used by contractors and enterprise distributorsTariff Litigation Modeling driven by channel economicsClosing Insight:“AI isn't replacing distributors, AI is replacing the distributors who refuse to modernize.” This episode makes one message clear: the teams who unify their data, modernize their workflows, and embrace AI-assisted operations will define the next decade of competitive advantage.Leave a Review: Help us grow by sharing your thoughts on the show.Learn more about the LeadSmart AI B2B Sales Platform: https://www.leadsmarttech.com/ Join the conversation each week on LinkedIn Live.Want even more insight to the stories we discuss each week? Subscribe to the Around The Horn Newsletter.You can also hear the podcast and other excellent content on our YouTube Channel.Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or TikTok.

En Capital Intereconomía hemos repasado las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa. Asia ha cerrado con subidas tras el buen dato de inflación en EE. UU. y la subida de tipos del Banco de Japón, mientras Wall Street celebra la moderación del IPC. En Europa, el Ibex 35 ha superado los 17.100 puntos, impulsado por el BCE y la referencia inflacionista estadounidense. En el primer análisis de la mañana, Ignacio Vacchiano, country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares, ha analizado el impacto del movimiento del BoJ, las perspectivas del IPC y el PCE en EE. UU., qué puede hacer la Fed y la temporada de resultados, con el foco en Nike y FedEx. El programa ha incluido el habitual repaso a la prensa económica. En la entrevista, María Canal, portavoz de la representación de la Comisión Europea en España, ha abordado la continuidad del Consejo Europeo, las claves del Plan de Vivienda Asequible presentado por la Comisión y el nuevo paquete de automoción.

En Capital Intereconomía hemos seguido en directo la apertura del Ibex 35 y del resto de bolsas europeas. En el análisis de mercados, Xavier Brun, responsable de renta variable europea en Trea AM, ha ofrecido su visión de mercado en un contexto marcado por la decisión del Banco de Japón y la espera del próximo dato de PCE en Estados Unidos. Brun ha analizado el impacto en el sector tecnológico de la noticia de que China estaría logrando fabricar chips de 7 nanómetros —clave para el desarrollo de la inteligencia artificial— utilizando máquinas antiguas de ASML, y las posibles implicaciones para la industria global de semiconductores. También ha comentado la situación de Nike, que decepciona tras presentar resultados y cae con fuerza en preapertura, evidenciando las dificultades de la compañía para recuperar tracción en el mercado chino. El programa ha finalizado con el Consultorio de Bolsa junto a Roberto Moro, analista de Apta Negocios.

Ignacio Vacchiano, country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares, analiza la actuación del Banco de Japón, la inflación de noviembre, el dato de PCE de hoy y los últimos movimientos corporativos que tienen como protagonistas a compañías como Nike o Oracle. El Banco de Japón ha elevado los tipos de interés en su última reunión del año. En concreto, ha subido 25 puntos básicos, hasta el 0,75%, lo que supone la tasa más alta en 30 años. “El BOJ podría en 2026 decir que va a seguir subiendo tipos para telegrafiarlo con tiempo y no asustar”, afirma el invitado. Hoy en Estados Unidos destaca la caída en after hours de Nike, de más del 10%, después de presentar los resultados del segundo trimestre fiscal. La compañía ha visto cómo su beneficio ha caído un 31% en los seis primeros meses del año con unas ventas que se han visto impactadas por los aranceles de Donald Trump. Su margen bruto disminuye 300 puntos básicos hasta el 40,6%, debido al impacto de los aranceles. “El problema de Nike sigue siendo China, llevan seis trimestres con caída de ventas en aquel país y los márgenes brutos ahí descendían 13% las ventas digitales”, afirma el country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares. Con la mirada puesta en el dato de PCE de octubre, el jueves ha sido el turno del dato de inflación de noviembre. Esta se ha moderado en noviembre hasta el 2,7 %, tres décimas menos que en septiembre. Además, el mercado esperaba que fuera de 3,1%. La inflación subyacente, que excluye los elementos más volátiles (energía y alimentos), también ha sido mejor, ya que se ha moderado hasta el 2,6%. Ignacio Vacchiano apunta que “realmente es un dato que viene con mucha carencia de recolección de los mismos por el cierre del Gobierno federal y que prácticamente los inversores como que no se creen”. Eso sí, apunta a que “venía muy por debajo de lo esperado”.

Echamos un vistazo a los datos de la decisión del Banco Central de Rusia, el yen y el PCE de EE.UU. Con Enrique Díaz-Álvarez, director de Riesgos de Ebury.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we provide in depth reaction to the UWM TWO merger. Plus, Robbie sits down with Foundation Mortgage's Sam Bjelac for a discussion on the third-party origination and non-QM spaces evolution and expectations as we close out 2025 and enter 2026. And we close by reviewing what the latest PCE reports say about inflation.Thanks to the Refi Recapture Engine from LO Autopilot. Lenders lose ~80% of recapture business. Their plug & play Refi Recapture Engine triples recapture volume. It runs nonstop, analyzes every loan, creates personalized quotes and sends them directly to borrowers, and delivers refi-ready borrowers to your LOs on a silver platter. 

En Capital Intereconomía hemos repasado las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa. En el primer análisis de la mañana, Eduardo Bolinches, analista de Invertia, ha explicado qué esperar de bonos, bolsa y dólar en una sesión marcada por la cautela de Wall Street, pendiente del dato de PCE del viernes y de la evolución del precio del petróleo. El Brent se mueve en el entorno de los 60 dólares, reabriendo el debate sobre dónde puede estar su suelo, mientras los inversores valoran si la Fed podría optar por un ciclo de recortes de tipos más lento de lo previsto. El programa ha incluido el habitual resumen de prensa económica con las noticias más destacadas del día. En la entrevista, Juan Antonio de Castro, doctor en Economía y exfuncionario de Naciones Unidas, ha analizado el discurso de Donald Trump a la nación, la orden de bloquear totalmente los petroleros que entran y salen de Venezuela, la caída del índice de aprobación de Trump al 39% por motivos económicos y la advertencia de Estados Unidos de responder a las multas de la UE a las grandes tecnológicas americanas.

Futures pointed to up arrows ahead of Monday's trading session, starting the final full week of trading for 2025. Kevin Hincks warns investors that economic data, delayed or otherwise, will impact a lot of the action. He points to October's core PCE paired with November's CPI and unemployment as highlights. However, Kevin says the Santa Claus rally is coming even if it's a little delayed. He touches on President Trump's comments that he sees Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh heading the FOMC after Jerome Powell. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

La semana arranca con los mercados atentos a los bancos centrales, que celebran su última reunión del año: BCE, Banco de Inglaterra, Japón, Suecia y Noruega marcarán el rumbo de la política monetaria global. En Europa, se publican datos clave como los PMI de la eurozona, la encuesta ZEW en Alemania, y la inflación en la eurozona y Reino Unido. En EE.UU., la atención estará puesta en la tasa de desempleo, las ventas minoristas, el PMI, la comparecencia del gobernador de la Fed Christopher Waller, la inflación de noviembre y el PCE deflactor. Además, presentan cuentas compañías como Micron Technology, FedEx, Nike, General Mills o Carnival. Víctor Asensi (DPAM), Óscar Esteban (Fidelity) y Gonzalo Ramón-Borja Álvarez de Toledo (Swisscanto) analizan en la tertulia de mercados de Capital Intereconomía las claves que moverán los mercados en la recta final del año y las oportunidades y riesgos para invertir en 2026.

Welcome to this week's Titan International market review for the week ending 7th December 2025. Global equity markets edged higher over the week as investors interpreted softer US inflation and weakening labour market data as strengthening the case for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the long-delayed September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Friday after disruptions caused by the US government shutdown. Further evidence of labour market cooling emerged from the private sector. Across Europe, inflationary trends remained broadly contained. Asset markets responded in familiar fashion to the accumulating evidence of slower growth and softer price pressures. Bond markets, however, moved in the opposite direction. Elsewhere, OPEC and its allies signalled caution on the global growth outlook by committing to hold output steady through the first quarter of 2026. That's all for this week's Titan International Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to titanwealthinternational.com.

We are Green-lighting! Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden A Chocolate Craze PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) - Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden - Chocolate Craze Markets - NVDA gets the greenlight - Waiting for the ECO - ALL eyes...... Wednesday at 2pm - Oil Dropping - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Inflation - PCE comes in a little lighter than expected - However, let us be clear that inflation is not lower and prices grossly above where we were a couple of years ago - Inflation still running at around 3% overall - Fed set to greenlight the rate cut Oil and Gas - Oil has been dropping - reports that use will slow over the next year - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Jobs - Reports show that U.S. employers have announced over 1.1 million job cuts in 2025 (as of early December), marking the highest level since the pandemic's start in 2020. - This has been driven by tech integration (AI), economic shifts, and soft consumer spending, with sectors like government, tech, retail, and warehousing leading. Greenlight - No security problems here - Seeking a compromise over controlling exports to China, the US Department of Commerce will soon allow the export of powerful Nvidia GPUs that are roughly 18 months behind its most advanced offerings, according to a person with knowledge of the plan. - The move, which would send Nvidia H200s to China, seeks to find a middle ground between those who oppose exports of any advanced AI chips and those who worry that restrictions will merely hand the market to Chinese competitors. - It also aims to satisfy the Chinese government, which has blocked imports of less powerful chips, such as Nvidia's H20. - This can be gamed ..... - OHHHH - and USA to get 25% of the sales ???? China Not With Program - China is buying soybeans again, but short of President Trump's target, according to CNBC - Really think this is a big game and will not resolve anytime soon - China still holds the cards ECO Data Starting to Flow Again - BLS to publish October PPI data with the November PPI news release on January 14, 2026 - Unemployment report released Dec 16th - This week is a little slow but next week (Dec 15-19) kick it up hard - - - Dec 19 Income and Spending , PCE report, Housing starts, Retail Sales, CPI (Nov), Leading Indicators, Philly Fed, UMich Sentiment Apple Turnover - Not the pastry - In just the past week, Apple's heads of artificial intelligence and interface design stepped down. - Then the company announced that its general counsel and head of governmental affairs were leaving as well. - All four executives have reported directly to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook Berkshire Too - Todd Combs, one of Warren Buffett's investing lieutenants and the CEO of GEICO, is departing Berkshire Hathaway and joining JPMorgan Chase in a new role as part of a major shake-up involving both firms. - Combs is leaving Berkshire Hathaway and his role leading GEICO to run the bank's new investment group as part of its wider "security and resilience" initiative announced in October. AI Frames - Warby Parker and Google announced that the first lightweight, AI glasses developed through their partnership are expected to launch in 2026 - What will be different about these? All others have seemed to failed miserably. Mergers - Maybe - Netflix announced Friday it's reached a deal to buy pieces of Warner Bros. Discovery, bringing a swift end to a dramatic bidding process that saw Paramount Skydance and Comcast also vying for the legacy assets. - The transaction is comprised of cash and stock and is valued at $27.75 per WBD share - Others are offering $30 CASH per share - President Trump has put in his comments that he thinks it may be a tough one to clear - $2.8B breakup fee if Warner Brothers pulls out and $5.8B reverse break up fee if the deal is not approved. Oracle Earnings - Wednesday after the bell - This is the poster child for the vendor and circular financing - Stock was the darling for a minute a few months ago - Written: "The stock has fallen roughly 32-40% from its September 10 peak, erasing its "Nvidia moment" rally and turning Oracle into the primary vehicle for expressing skepticism about the AI build-out and OpenAI's economics." - Briefing analyst Forgot this... - What happened to the Tik Tok deal and the China bad discussion? --- History.... - Negotiations happened between ByteDance, Oracle, and Walmart back in 2020, and later discussions continued under “Project Texas” for U.S. data security. - The proposed structure (Oracle as tech partner, U.S. investors taking a stake) was announced but never finalized into a binding acquisition or spin-off. - Instead, TikTok remained under ByteDance ownership, while implementing U.S. data storage and security measures through Oracle. - The U.S. government extended deadlines multiple times, but no sale or transfer of ownership occurred. - China wins again! So much winning! Private Credit  - Private markets investing startup Yieldstreet, now calling itself Willow Wealth, recently informed customers of new defaults on real estate projects in Houston and Nashville, Tennessee. The letters, obtained and verified by CNBC, account for about $41 million in new losses. - They come on the heels of $89 million in marine loan wipeouts disclosed in September and $78 million in losses previously reported by CNBC. - Willow Wealth also removed a decade of historical performance data from public view in recent weeks. - Total losses? $208 million Pistachios - Dubai Craze - Milk chocolate shell filled with: - Pistachio cream (often blended with tahini for a nutty, slightly savory note) - Kadayif (shredded phyllo pastry) for crunch - Created in 2021, went viral in 2023 via the SOCH -  United States, Iran, and Turkey the biggest producers of pistachios - Argentina betting on it to continue  - adding to their farmland to cover the demand - Dubai Chocolate Bar (the viral pistachio-knafeh chocolate) generated over $50–$60 million in global sales for the year. IndiGo - In November, new Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules increased pilot rest periods. - IndiGo failed to adjust crew rosters, causing a severe pilot shortage during peak travel season. - 1000s of flights cancelled - IndiGo apologized and implemented measures like processing refunds, arranging transport/hotels for stranded passengers, and strengthening customer support. - As of this week - still having major problems - stock don 20% from its high on this news (not traded in USA) Grok Report - Using Grok as Copilot is getting a little weird....ChatGPT a little slow - Photo to video clip - pretty cool - Image generation - FAST! - Can have full on conversations and even companions.....(?) - More racy than other Ai (as is to be expected) Age 18+  options - Interesting nd impressive thus far. OMG  - Brown Nosing - Stellantis said it will bring an all-electric small “car” called the Fiat Topolino to the U.S. - The Topolino is actually categorized as “an all-electric quadricycle” rather than a car, according to Stellantis and has a top speed of roughly 28 miles per hour. - Fiat's announcement comes less than a week after President Donald Trump praised small “Kei” cars from Japan and expressed interest in bringing tiny cars to the U.S. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner) FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

In this week's episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese dig into the market's latest shift toward a potential economic reacceleration, looking at rising global yields, what the renewed steepening of the yield curve may signal, and how broadening market leadership is shaping their outlook. They go through the rebound in tech, the breakout in commodities, stubborn inflation pressures, and the mixed but still-stable labor market. With the Fed's next move approaching, Ryan and Sonu discuss what policymakers may be forced to confront as growth picks up and investors try to position through the final weeks of the year.Key Takeaways:• Global yields are climbing: The move appears driven more by improving growth expectations than by renewed inflation fears.• The yield curve is steepening: Long-term rates are rising faster than short-term ones, signaling firmer economic momentum.• Market leadership is broadening: Tech is rebounding while financials, industrials, and small caps are showing notable strength.• Commodities are breaking out: A wide range of materials is moving higher, hinting at early reflation even without oil participating.• Inflation is easing but still sticky: Price pressures remain above the Fed's comfort zone as it prepares for additional rate cuts.Jump to:0:00 – Reacceleration & Markets Setup4:55 – Global Yields, Carry Trade & Yield Curve Shifts9:13 – Bear vs Bull Steepener Explained16:40 – Tech's Streak, Market Breadth & Sector Rotation24:00 – Commodities Breakout & Late-Cycle Signals32:20 – Inflation pressures: PCE, Services & Risks38:30 – Fed Cuts, Labor Market Trends & Income StrengthConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @SonuVargheseQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Jeffrey Cleveland reacts to the Fed decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, with three dissents. He thinks unemployment will tick up and PCE will fall slightly next year, leading to the Fed funds rate lower than the median now. He doesn't see this as a hawkish cut based on the bond market reaction, but “we'll have to see how Chair Powell frames things.” He wants to know why Fed members dissented; he worries most when they all agree.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Análise semanal de mercado e os impactos no mundo RPPS, com destaques:No exterior:  Período de silêncio dos dirigentes do Fed, PCE, ADP e PMIs ditaram o rumo dos negócios.No Brasil: Panorama global, PIB 3ºTri e LDO de 2026 estiveram no foco da semana. 

O estrategista de investimentos do BB Private, Allan Fukumoto, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento: "Nos EUA, os PMIs sugerem perda de fôlego na indústria enquanto os pedidos de auxílio‑desemprego seguem apontando um mercado de trabalho aquecido; além disso, o PCE veio em linha com as expectativas, reforçando a leitura de inflação estável e mantendo as apostas em afrouxamento monetário. No Brasil, o PIB do terceiro trimestre registrou avanço marginal, o que sustenta a perspectiva de início do ciclo de cortes da Selic já no início de 2026."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights. Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

US stocks held onto gains as the Fed countdown began, with the S&P 500 quietly rebounding to near a record high. In company news, Netflix slipped on a bumper deal with Warner Bros, while Ulta Beauty beat expectations ahead of the holiday sales period. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields edged higher following cooler PCE inflation data. In commodities, silver hit a record high on Fed rate-cut optimism, while oil prices held steady amid stalled Ukraine peace talks. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to open lower ahead of the RBA’s interest rate decision. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wall St ground higher Friday ‘Expectations for Fed rate cuts' was the excuse for last week's market rally and that same narrative supported a more modest rise in the three major indices this week. S&P 500 up 0.3% vs the ASX 200 up 0.2%. Nasdaq up 0.9% and the Dow up 239 points. S&P 500 up 0.2% overnight after PCE inflation and consumer spending prints from September both met expectations. Light volume. Nasdaq up 0.3%. Dow up 104 points. Risk-on Technology and Discretionary stocks leading the pack. Value, Utilities and Resources worst.SPI down 13 - NSR agreed bid.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

In this conversation, Jon G. Sanchez and Jason Gaunt discuss the current state of the market, focusing on the tug of war between bullish and bearish sentiments. They analyze various economic indicators, including PCE data, consumer sentiment, and labor market dynamics, while also addressing geopolitical tensions and valuation concerns. The discussion highlights the complexities of the market environment and the factors influencing investor sentiment as they approach year-end.Chapters00:00 Introduction and Market Overview01:47 Optimism vs. Pessimism on Wall Street04:36 Bullish Sentiment and Economic Indicators07:18 PCE Data and Inflation Concerns09:46 Earnings Season and AI Trends10:12 Consumer Wealth and Economic Sentiment13:00 Looking Ahead: Bulls vs. Bears20:01 Market Overview and Economic Concerns21:36 Geopolitical Tensions and Their Impact22:55 Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators25:26 Technological Advancements and Employment27:35 Market Valuations and Investor Sentiment31:13 Disclaimer

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar ⬜ In today's update, Palvatar highlights inflation as the market's main focus ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting, with delayed PCE data likely adding early-session volatility. Softer U.S. jobless claims ease labor-market worries, while Germany's strong industrial orders and Japan's improving economic indices offer global optimism. India's rate cut supports growth, Netflix makes an $83B splash with Warner Bros., and BlackRock's bitcoin ETF faces a sixth week of outflows.

Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and Michael Santoli began the hour with a deluge of data: with PCE, Consumer Sentiment, Personal Savings and more crossing the wires. Bridgewater's former Chief Investment Strategist helped the team break it all down - before key analysis later on about what it all means for the Fed decision next week with Goldman Sach's Chief Economist. Plus: details on the deal rocking the media world today - Netflix buying Warner Brothers' film and steaming assets... Hear former DOJ Antitrust Chief Jonathan Kanter's take on whether the deal will pass regulatory scrutiny... and more on what it means for the film industry with the head of the world's largest movie theater trade group (who calls it an "unprecedented threat").  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Volatility could rise at 10 a.m. ET with the release of PCE data, but earnings news is slim. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on three-day win streaks before next week's Fed decision.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0131-1225) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Joanne Bianco explains the risks of reaccelerating inflation ahead of Friday's PCE report, though it is anticipated to continue to moderate next year. She expects a rate cut next week from the Fed but thinks they might pause for a few months after that. Joanne is waiting to see dissensions within the Fed and the independence of various members. She also comments on the fixed income market and what traders might trend towards next year.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

As the first trading week of December comes to a close, investors turn to next week's FOMC interest rate decision. Kevin Hincks reports from the Cboe Global Markets to explain how jobless claims and the delayed September core PCE prints pave the way for a likely hawkish cut, which bond markets are bracing for. Kevin also touches on the Netflix (NFLX) deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) for $82.7 billion and explains why investors "should be pretty patient" for the deal to pan out.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Nossos sócios Luis André Oliveira, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a divulgação do ADP reforçou sinais de enfraquecimento no mercado de trabalho americano, com nova queda nas vagas em novembro; o PCE  confirmou a tendência de desaceleração da inflação; e os ISMs mantiveram a tendência de serviços superando manufaturas. O Trump sinalizou provável anúncio do nome de Kevin Hassett para o Fed, ainda sem oficialização. No Japão, o tom mais hawkish do presidente do BoJ, Kazuo Ueda, trouxe expectativa de aumento da taxa de juros. Na Europa, a inflação da Zona do Euro ficou próxima do esperado.  No Brasil, o PIB do 3º trimestre veio levemente abaixo do esperado, principalmente pelo consumo das famílias. Foi divulgada nova pesquisa Atlas, indicando interrupção na melhora da popularidade do presidente Lula. No campo político, a sexta-feira foi marcada por forte tensão: Flávio Bolsonaro anunciou que tem o apoio do pai para disputar a presidência, por ora frustrando a expectativa de consolidação da candidatura de Tarcísio. Nos EUA, o juro de 10 anos abriu 12 bps, e as bolsas subiram – S&P 500 +0,31%, Nasdaq +1,01%, Russell 2000 +0,84%. No Brasil, o jan/29 abriu 47 bps, o Ibovespa caiu 1,07% e o real 2,12%. Na próxima semana, os destaques são as decisões dos bancos centrais americano, canadense, australiano e brasileiro, além de dados de inflação e atividade no Brasil. Não deixe de conferir!

Hör SEB:s makroekonom Elisabet Kopelman om eftermiddagens PCE-siffra som kan avgöra hur FED tänker nästa vecka. Börskoll bjuder även på en bostadsspecial. Vi djupdyker i de senaste siffrorna från Svensk Mäklarstatistik och intervjuar Hemnets vd om nya ”Sälj först, betala sen”-draget som får aktien att lyfta. Programledare: Andreas Johansson

Las acciones mundiales suben el viernes, encaminándose a una segunda semana de ganancias. Están en verde a la espera de interpretar una referencia de inflación, el deflactor PCE, que se espera no impida a la Reserva Federal recortar los tipos de interés la próxima semana. Eso sobre el dólar e impulsa al oro. En Bolsas europeas destaca sector minero, espoleado por máximos históricos en precios del cobre. Esta hora hacemos balance de la semana y analizamos mercado con Antonio Castelo, de Ibroker. Warner Bros Discovery sube, ya que Netflix comprará sus estudios de televisión y cine y su unidad de streaming. Southwest Airlines cae tras recortar su previsión de beneficios por el cierre del Gobierno. JPM ve un 2026 difícil para las papeleras. En Bolsa española, y dentro del Ibex35, lideran las subidas Indra, Fluidra y Puig. Los que más caen son Logista, Naturgy y Caixabank.

Mercados aguardam divulgação do PCE de setembro. No Brasil, PIB do terceiro tri seguiu confirmando moderação da atividade.

Miguel Ángel González Suárez te presenta el Informativo de Primera Hora en 'El Remate', el programa matinal de La Diez Capital Radio que arranca tu día con: Las noticias más relevantes de Canarias, España y el mundo, analizadas con rigor y claridad. Miguel Ángel González Suárez te presenta el Informativo de Primera Hora en 'El Remate', el programa matinal de La Diez Capital Radio que arranca tu día con: Las noticias más relevantes de Canarias, España y el mundo, analizadas con rigor y claridad. Hoy hace un año: Los jóvenes canarios se enfrentan al alquiler más caro de la historia con los salarios más bajos del país. El alquiler medio de una vivienda es de 1.024 euros mensuales, un 11,3% más que el año anterior, mientras que el salario medio no supera los 843 euros mensuales. Hace 365 días: La patronal insta a bajar el IGIC y alerta de que la renta canaria se aleja de la UE. Hoy se cumplen 1.392 días del cruel ataque e invasión de Rusia a Ucrania. 3 años y 282 días. Hoy es viernes 5 diciembre de 2025. Día Internacional de los Voluntarios. El 5 de diciembre se conmemora el Día Internacional de los Voluntarios, una fecha que busca resaltar la importante labor que realizan todas aquellas personas que deciden de forma desinteresada tender una mano amiga para hacer de nuestro mundo un lugar mejor. El Día Internacional de los Voluntarios se celebra desde el año 1986. Entre los grupos de voluntariado, uno de los más importantes es el de las Naciones Unidas, que al igual que otras organizaciones presta sus servicios, capacidades físicas y conocimientos, en favor de todas aquellas personas y lugares del mundo que lo estén necesitando. El Día Internacional de los Voluntarios fue creado para fomentar que las personas que quieren ayudar a los demás encuentren vías para hacerlo. Y para ello, los países y los gobiernos deben establecer objetivos claros al respecto, cooperar para conseguir tener redes eficaces de voluntarios. 1492.- Colón, en su primer viaje, llega a la isla que los indígenas llamaban Quisqueya y que él denominó La Española. 1813.- En las llanuras de Araure (actual Venezuela), Bolívar obtiene una victoria sobre las tropas realistas. 1901.- Nace Walt Disney, dibujante y cineasta estadounidense. 1918.- El conde de Romanones preside de nuevo el Gobierno español, etapa marcada por los conflictos autonomistas de Cataluña. 1933.- EEUU: Abolición de la "Ley Seca", vigente durante 13 años. En otro 5 de diciembre pero de 1946, la ONU se instala definitivamente en Nueva York, tras permanecer desde abril de 1945 en la ciudad de San Francisco. 1995.- El socialista Javier Solana, designado secretario general de la OTAN. 1998.- Julio Anguita se despide de su cargo de secretario general del PCE en el Congreso del partido. Francisco Frutos toma el relevo dos días después. 2012.- Gerardo Díaz Ferrán, expresidente de CEOE y viajes Marsans, ingresa en prisión por orden del juez Velasco como imputado en la Operación Crucero y le impone una fianza de 30 millones de euros. 2017.- La UE aprueba una lista de paraísos fiscales compuesta por 17 países, Panamá entre ellos. 2019.- Huelga masiva en Francia contra la reforma de las pensiones. Santos Crispina, Anastasio, Dalmacio y Sabas. España y Marruecos firman 14 nuevos acuerdos en una reunión de alto nivel para reforzar "las relaciones bilaterales" Israel mata a cinco personas en el sur de Gaza mientras China pide que el alto el fuego se cumpla "eficazmente" España se retira de Eurovisión 2026 tras la decisión de la UER de permitir la participación de Israel. El PSOE reconoce "fallos" en la gestión de las denuncias contra Salazar por presunto acoso sexual y pide "calma" Clavijo exige explicaciones a Albares ante la opacidad de la cumbre España-Marruecos. El presidente canario ve deslealtad institucional al excluir a Canarias del encuentro y CC advierte de que se puede quebrar su apoyo en el Congreso. España y Marruecos obvian la delimitación de las aguas territoriales y el espacio aéreo del Sáhara, que puede afectar a Canarias. La XIII Reunión de Alto Nivel (RAN) entre España y Marruecos que han presidido en Madrid el presidente del Gobierno, Pedro Sánchez, y el primer ministro marroquí, Aziz Ajanuch, se ha saldado con una declaración conjunta de 23 folios y un total de 119 puntos, además de la firma de catorce acuerdos y documentos de distinto tipo. Los canarios evitan las urgencias de los hospitales: apenas las visitan una vez cada tres años. Los isleños son los españoles que menos frecuentan este servicio en atención especializada frente a regiones como Andalucía donde estas visitas se repiten cada siete meses. El sector tabaquero ya supone el 6,6% del PIB industrial canario. Las exportaciones alcanzan 127 millones de euros y superan a las del plátano, que fueron de 112 millones.

Send us a textDollar resumes slide ahead of shutdown-delayed PCE inflation data. Yenextends recovery as probability of December BoJ hike surges. Aussie gainsas RBA seen keeping rates on hold through 2026. Stocks extend recoveryas markets eye Fed rate cuts, gold rebounds.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Mercados globais sobem à espera do PCE e com foco no Fed; Ásia anima em chips. Petróleo estável, minério cai, e aqui a agenda corporativa vem cheia de proventos.

En Europe les marchés actions étaient dans le vert hier profitant des attentes de baisses de taux de la Réserve fédérale américaine et des espoirs de résolution prochaine du conflit ukrainien. L'Eurostoxx a ainsi clôturé en hausse de 0.40%.Le secteur automobile a affiché la meilleure performance sur la séance profitant du possible report au-delà de 2040 de l'interdiction de vente de voitures neuves à motorisation thermique. Renault a bénéficié de cette nouvelle et a clôturé en hausse de plus de 6% en tête de l'indice parisien. Et du coté des statistiques attendues par le marché ?Demain sera publié l'indice PCE des prix américains, mesure privilégiée de l'inflation par la Réserve fédérale américaine, à moins d'une semaine des décisions de politique monétaire cette donnée sera largement scrutée par les investisseursHébergé par Ausha. Visitez ausha.co/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

On a beau lire la presse, écouter les experts, regarder la macro, tout semble dire que non, vraiment, ce n'est pas le moment d'être euphorique. Mais Wall Street s'en fiche. Il suffit de tordre l'info dans le bon sens… et tout devient bullish. Dans cette vidéo, je te montre comment, avec les mêmes chiffres, la même réalité, on peut créer deux narratifs opposés:

EUA divulgam às 12h00 o PCE, índice de preços preferido do BC americano, além de números de renda e gastos pessoais e sentimento da Universidade de Michigan.

En Capital Intereconomía hemos seguido en directo la apertura del Ibex 35 y del resto de bolsas europeas, en una jornada marcada por la publicación del dato de paro, que baja en 18.805 personas en noviembre. Este resultado y su impacto en el mercado laboral lo hemos analizado con Valentín Bote, director de Randstad Research. En el análisis de mercados, Pablo García (Divacons–Alphavalue) ha repasado una sesión condicionada por el dato de IPC, después de que Kocher (BCE) advirtiera de que no debe reaccionarse ante pequeñas variaciones. En EE. UU., la atención se centra en las cifras de JOLTS, el próximo PCE y las expectativas de tipos. También se ha comentado la postura del Banco de Inglaterra y la noticia de que la administración Trump respalda el intento de Bayer de limitar demandas por su herbicida Roundup, relacionadas con acusaciones de cáncer. El programa ha cerrado con el Consultorio de Bolsa junto a Javier Alfayate, gestor de fondos.

Art Hogan weighs the upcoming PCE print and jobs data to preview what the Fed's rate cut path will be. The Fed “has a window to cut at least two more times next year,” he argues. He thinks the fundamentals are “more good than bad” in the stock market. However, he thinks some of the high-beta names could be at risk for a downturn. He likes the Mag 7 minus Tesla (TSLA).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

週一天下零時差關注以下財經大事： 一、Line Pay加入電子支付戰場，會帶來什麼新變化？ 二、聯準會結束縮表，對股債市有何影響？ 三、美國通膨降不下來？12月還降息嗎？ 文： 蔡娪嫣 製作團隊：樂祈 ＊閱讀零時差，點這看全文

A widely used grease remover and dry-cleaning chemical called tetrachloroethylene (PCE) has been linked to liver fibrosis, a condition that causes scarring and loss of liver function even in people who don't drink alcohol or have obesity Researchers found that people with measurable levels of PCE in their blood were three times more likely to have liver fibrosis, and for every tiny one-nanogram-per-milliliter increase in PCE, the risk increased fivefold PCE exposure often occurs through inhaling fumes from dry-cleaned clothes, contaminated air, or drinking water, and the chemical can also enter through the skin, affecting the liver, kidneys, heart, and nervous system Long-term exposure to PCE has been linked not only to liver disease but also to nerve damage, reproductive issues, and several cancers, including those of the bladder and liver, prompting the EPA to begin phasing it out Lower your risk of liver damage by switching to solvent-free wet cleaning, letting dry-cleaned clothes air out before use, replacing household products that contain PCE, and supporting liver repair through clean nutrition, hydration, and sun exposure

Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.It's Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won't hit the Fed's 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn't over, but the worst is behind us.So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to modest growth. U.S. consumers start to rebound, but slowly. Tariffs will keep prices firm in the first half of 2026, squeezing purchasing power for low- and middle-income households. These households consume mainly through labor market income, and until inflation starts to retreat, purchasing power should be constrained.Real consumption should rise 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.8 [percent] in 2027 – better, but not booming. The main culprit is a labor market that's still in ‘low-hire, low-fire' mode driven by immigration controls and tariff effects that keep hiring soft. We see unemployment peaking at 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, then easing to 4.5 percent by year-end. Jobs are out there, but the labor market isn't roaring. It'll be hard for hiring to pick up until after tariffs have been absorbed.And when jobs cool, the Fed steps in. The Fed is cutting rates – but at a cost. After two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and October, we expect 75 basis points more by mid 2026, bringing the target range to 3.0-3.25 percent. Why? To insure against labor market weakness. But that insurance comes with a price: inflation staying above target longer. Think of it as the Fed walking a tightrope—lean too far toward jobs, and inflation lingers; lean too far toward inflation, and growth stumbles. For now the Fed has chosen the former.And how does AI fit into the macro picture? It's definitely a major growth driver. Spending on AI-related hardware, software, and data centers adds about 0.4 percent to growth in both 2026 and 2027. That's roughly 20 percent of total growth. But here's the twist: imports dilute the impact. After accounting for imported tech, AI's net contribution falls sharply. Still, we expect AI to boost productivity by 25-35 basis points by 2027, over our forecast horizon, marking the start of a new innovation cycle. In short: AI is planting the seeds now for bigger gains later.Of course, there are risks to our outlook. And let me flag three important ones. First, demand upside – meaning fiscal stimulus and business optimism push growth higher; under this scenario inflation stays hot, and the Fed pauses cuts. If the economy really picks up, then the Fed may need to take back the risk management cuts it's putting in now. That would be a shock to markets. Second, there's a productivity upside – in which case AI delivers bigger productivity gains, disinflation resumes, and rates drift lower. And lastly, a potential mild recession where tariffs and tight policy bite harder, GDP turns negative in early 2026, and the Fed slashes rates to near 1 percent. So in summary: 2026 looks to be a transition year with less drama but more nuance, as growth returns and inflation cools, while AI keeps rewriting the playbook.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Entre para o Grupo Vip da Maior Black Friday da História da Levante:https://lvnt.app/jvtu2p24/11 - Bolsa +0,30% Olá, sejam bem-vindo a mais um Fechamento de Mercado, comigo Flávio Conde e a volta de férias de Ricardo Afonso, hoje é 2a. feira, dia 24 de novembro, e sugiro assistirem o Mata-Mata: “Qual Banco Comprar: BB, Itaú, Bradesco ou Santander?” que está muito bom. O Ibovespa fechou em leve alta de 155,2 mil pontos, 0,27%, com volume médio de R$ 20 bi, exatamente nos R$ 20 bi da média das segundas de mercado em alta. As bolsas subiram bem nos EUA, Nasdaq +2,6% e Dow +0,40% - lideradas pelas ações da Alphabet, +6%, e outras ações de tecnologia com Broadcom 11%, Micro Technology 8%, Palantir, AMD, Meta e Nvidia com investidores um pouco mais animados que o Fed possa cortar os juros dia 10 de dezembro, em três semanas. As apostas por um corte de 0,25% para 3,50% de 3,75% subiram de 55% na semana passada para 77% na sexta e 85% hoje. Esse otimismo com juros e bolsas americanas ainda não chegou no Brasil, ou seja, no Ibovespa, mas deve chegar via investidores estrangeiros comprando nos próximos dias. O que pode atrapalhar tal cenário? A partir de amanhã, terça-feira, começará a divulgação de vários dados nos EUA: Temos PPI (índice de preços ao produtor), números de inflação americana, confiança do consumidor e vendas no varejo. Na quarta, o foco se volta para o IPCA-15, crucial para nós, e também para o PIB e o PCE dos EUA. O dólar comercial recuou um pouco, -0,13%, aos R$ 5,3951 de R$ 5,40 na sexta, enquanto o dólar norte-americano recuou quase nada, -0,03%, frente a moedas fortes.Os juros no Brasil recuaram bem com o Tesouro Prefixado 2032 a 13,40% x 13,46%, na sexta, e o IPCA+ 2029 para 7,75% de 7,78% a.a.Assista no vídeo as recomendações de Conde e Ricardo.

En Capital Intereconomía hemos seguido en directo la apertura del Ibex 35 y del resto de bolsas europeas, en una jornada marcada por la mejora del sentimiento inversor ante el fuerte repunte en las expectativas de recorte de tipos en EE.UU., que ya se sitúan en el 69%. En el análisis de mercados, Pablo García (Divacons–Alphavalue) destacó que el foco del día está en la geopolítica, con la reunión clave de líderes europeos para tratar la situación en Ucrania, cuyo plazo límite se fija el 27 de junio. Esto mantiene en alerta a los sectores de energía y defensa, especialmente con las nuevas tensiones entre China y Japón, tras el despliegue de misiles cerca de Taiwán y las advertencias de Pekín. Las materias primas también son protagonistas, con un petróleo sensible a estas conversaciones. En el ámbito corporativo, BHP retira su cuarta oferta sobre Anglo American, lo que puede influir en el sector minero; e IAG cancela vuelos a Venezuela coincidiendo con el ultimátum de EE.UU. para cercar a Maduro, a quien se vincula con el llamado “Cartel de los Soles”. La semana será decisiva para medir la fortaleza del consumo en EE.UU., con Black Friday, los datos del PIB y el PCE como referencias clave. En tecnología, Alibaba debuta con fuerza con su nueva aplicación de IA, buscando competir frontalmente con ChatGPT. El programa terminó con el consultorio de bolsa de José María Lerma, atendiendo dudas de los oyentes.

Entre 1973 y 1976 se produjo el colapso del franquismo y comenzó la transición a la democracia. El régimen, personalista y atado a la figura de Francisco Franco —que gobernaba desde 1939—, había intentado institucionalizarse mediante siete Leyes Fundamentales que configuraban un Estado católico, monárquico y corporativo, un “reino sin rey” con Franco como jefe de Estado vitalicio. En 1969 designó sucesor a Juan Carlos de Borbón, confiando en que el joven príncipe, educado en el régimen, mantendría una política continuista bajo la tutela de Luis Carrero Blanco, nombrado presidente del Gobierno en 1973 con la idea de supervisar la sucesión. El asesinato de Carrero Blanco por la organización terrorista ETA el 20 de diciembre de 1973 desmontó esos planes. El magnicidio provocó una crisis interna y evidenció la fragilidad de un sistema basado más en lealtades personales que institucionales. Aquello coincidió además con la crisis del petróleo, que puso fin al milagro económico español, disparó la inflación, incrementó el desempleo, y erosionó la principal fuente de legitimidad del tardofranquismo: la prosperidad de la clase media. Franco, ya mayor y enfermo, nombró presidente a Carlos Arias Navarro unos días después del asesinato de Carrero. Arias Navarro prometió una tímida apertura, pero la presión del sector inmovilista, conocido entonces como el búnker, y sus propias limitaciones personales y políticas paralizaron cualquier reforma real. El gobierno alternó gestos aperturistas con represión. Entretanto la oposición se organizaba: en 1974 nació la Junta Democrática impulsada por el PCE, y en 1975 la Plataforma de Convergencia Democrática que puso en marcha el PSOE. En marzo de 1976 se fusionaron en la Coordinación Democrática, bautizada como la “Platajunta”), que exigía una ruptura con el régimen, amnistía y elecciones constituyentes. Franco murió el 20 de noviembre de 1975 tras una larga agonía. Juan Carlos I fue proclamado rey dos días más tarde y mantuvo inicialmente a Arias Navarro, que formó un nuevo gabinete en el que incluyó a aperturistas como Manuel Fraga o José María de Areilza. Pero la conflictividad social les estalló en las manos forzando al rey a prescindir de Arias y a agilizar los cambios. El rey, asesorado por Torcuato Fernández-Miranda, nombró presidente del Gobierno a Adolfo Suárez, un ministro joven proveniente del régimen que parecía inofensivo para el búnker pero era manejable. Fernández-Miranda apostaba por la estrategia “de la ley a la ley”, que se materializó en la Ley para la Reforma Política. A través de ella se podía desmantelar toda la institucionalidad franquista desde dentro. La ley establecía Cortes bicamerales elegidas por sufragio universal y abría la puerta a la legalización de los partidos políticos. Las Cortes la aprobaron el 18 de noviembre de 1976 por una amplia mayoría en lo que ha pasado a la historia como el “harakiri” de las Cortes de Franco. Tras ello se convocó un referéndum que la ratificó con más del 90% de los votos a favor. De este modo, en apenas un año se liquidó jurídicamente el franquismo y quedó encarrilada la monarquía parlamentaria, algo que culminaría con las elecciones de junio de 1977 y la Constitución de 1978. El proceso, en buena medida improvisado y lleno de tensiones, logró una transición pacífica que alumbró la España actual. En El ContraSello: 0:00 Introducción 4:00 El final del franquismo 31:45 “Contra el pesimismo”… https://amzn.to/4m1RX2R 1:24:14 El punto muerto de la guerra de Cuba Bibliografía: “Historia del franquismo” de Luis Palacios Bañuelos - https://amzn.to/3LRO8ke “El franquismo: una introducción” de Giuliana di Febo - https://amzn.to/4r9UdbN “Tiempo de incertidumbre” de Carlos Blanco - https://amzn.to/4pkX2oN “El guionista de la transición” de Juan Fernández-Miranda - https://amzn.to/4ifbDQo “No había costumbre: crónica de la muerte de Franco” de Miguel Ángel Aguilar - https://amzn.to/4o9nSiP · Canal de Telegram: https://t.me/lacontracronica · “Contra el pesimismo”… https://amzn.to/4m1RX2R · “Hispanos. Breve historia de los pueblos de habla hispana”… https://amzn.to/428js1G · “La ContraHistoria del comunismo”… https://amzn.to/39QP2KE · “La ContraHistoria de España. Auge, caída y vuelta a empezar de un país en 28 episodios”… https://amzn.to/3kXcZ6i · “Contra la Revolución Francesa”… https://amzn.to/4aF0LpZ · “Lutero, Calvino y Trento, la Reforma que no fue”… https://amzn.to/3shKOlK Apoya La Contra en: · Patreon... https://www.patreon.com/diazvillanueva · iVoox... https://www.ivoox.com/podcast-contracronica_sq_f1267769_1.html · Paypal... https://www.paypal.me/diazvillanueva Sígueme en: · Web... https://diazvillanueva.com · Twitter... https://twitter.com/diazvillanueva · Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/fernandodiazvillanueva1/ · Instagram... https://www.instagram.com/diazvillanueva · Linkedin… https://www.linkedin.com/in/fernando-d%C3%ADaz-villanueva-7303865/ · Flickr... https://www.flickr.com/photos/147276463@N05/?/ · Pinterest... https://www.pinterest.com/fernandodiazvillanueva Encuentra mis libros en: · Amazon... https://www.amazon.es/Fernando-Diaz-Villanueva/e/B00J2ASBXM #FernandoDiazVillanueva #franquismo #franco Escucha el episodio completo en la app de iVoox, o descubre todo el catálogo de iVoox Originals

Dan Deming weighs in on current market dynamics, noting a significant rotation out of overvalued sectors into underappreciated areas. He cautions that next week's economic data, including PPI, PCE, and consumer confidence, could shift market sentiment. Dan also discusses the perceived overvaluation of high-flying tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Oracle (ORCL), suggesting a prolonged rotation as the market questions the sustainability of A.I. sector valuations.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Sponsored By: → Cornbread Hemp | For an exclusive offer go to cornbreadhemp.com/drg and use promo code DRG for 30% OFF your first order! Get My Brand Masterlist⁠ https://drchristiangonzalez.com/best-brands-form-2-2/ Get Dry Cleaning Guide⁠ https://drchristiangonzalez.com/dry-cleaning-pdf-request-form/ Episode Description You might think liver damage comes from alcohol or sugar. But a new USC study reveals the real threat could be hanging in your closet. If you dry clean your clothes even once or twice a month, you're exposing yourself to Perchloroethylene (PCE)—a toxic solvent now strongly linked to liver fibrosis, brain fog, cancer, and even Parkinson's disease. This isn't just a factory worker problem. For many people, routine dry cleaning is the hidden environmental exposure driving chronic health issues no doctor can explain. PCE doesn't just disappear after cleaning. It off-gasses into your home, absorbs through your skin, and accumulates in your liver and nervous system. And the majority of dry cleaners still use it. Without asking the right questions, you have no idea what chemicals are saturating the fabrics touching your body every single day. And your liver, brain, and nervous system are paying the price. In this episode, Dr. Christian Gonzalez breaks down the USC Keck study and reveals how to protect yourself from this silent toxin: • Why dry cleaning increases your odds of liver fibrosis by 3X • The neurotoxic chemical triggering brain fog, headaches, and nervous system dysregulation • The Cancer and Parkinson's link researchers are now confirming • The exact 3 questions to ask your dry cleaner today to protect your family • The PFAS trap hiding in stain-proof and wrinkle-free fabrics (forever chemicals that never leave your body) • How PCE contaminates local groundwater and creates toxic exposure for entire communities This episode goes beyond your closet. It's a wake-up call about the pervasive, invisible toxins lurking in everyday life—and how to take action now to protect your liver, stabilize your nervous system, and reclaim your health. Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro 1:21 - USC Study: PCE Chemical Increases Liver Fibrosis Risk 5x 4:00 - Real Patient Case: Bladder Cancer from Living Above Dry Cleaner 6:22 - What Actually Happens During Dry Cleaning Process 8:12 - Alternative Solvents: Are "Green" Cleaners Actually Safe? 10:21 - PFAS Forever Chemicals in Stain-Resistant Treatments 11:28 - How Dry Cleaning Chemicals Enter Your Body 14:08 - Symptoms of Chemical Exposure: Brain Fog to Liver Damage 16:34 - Questions to Ask Your Dry Cleaner Right Now 19:00 - Safer Alternatives: Professional Wet Cleaning Explained 21:08 - Action Steps to Protect Your Health Today

Medio millón de españoles huyeron del país en 1939. Otros dos millones emigraron después para ganarse la vida en Europa y por causas políticas. Hoy viven en España nueve millones de personas de origen extranjero que han llegado a nuestro país por razones económicas o buscando refugio. Isabel Jiménez analiza esta transformación con la ayuda de dos voces separadas por medio siglo: la de Julia Hidalgo, militante del PCE y exiliada política, y Abdulaye Traoré, refugiado en España tras huir de Mali.Escuchar audio

En la semana en la que estamos revisitando nuestra historia, ese 20 de noviembre de 1975 cuando murió Francisco Franca en la cama, no derrocado, sino por vejez, se estrena una serie, ‘Anatomía de un instante', un encargo de Movistar Plus a Alberto Rodríguez, director que en su cine ha tratado de varias maneras los claroscuros de la Transición. La ficción, que estrena Movistar Plus, es una adaptación de la novela de Javier Cercas sobre el Golpe de Estado del 23F, que ocurrió unos años más tarde la muerte del director, en 1981. Centrada en cuatro capítulos, uno dedicado a cada personaje y el último al juicio, la serie explora cómo se llegó a esa situación a través de la poderosa instantánea de los tres hombres que no se escondieron bajo sus asientos cuando el golpista Tejero irrumpió en el Congreso. El primero se centra en Adolfo Suárez y cómo un falangista de provincias llegó a la televisión pública y luego a la presidencia del Gobierno. El segundo narra esos años en la vida de Santiago Carrillo, líder del PCE, al que interpreta Eduard Fernández, y el tercero, muestra la historia del general Gutiérrez Mellado, al que interpreta Manolo Solo.De la serie sorprende la facilidad con la que los actores logran que nos olvidemos de los personajes reales, tan icónicos y tan familiares con varias generaciones. Y gran parte del mérito es del Adolfo Suárez que logra componer Álvaro Morte. El actor, popular por ‘La casa de papel' y otras series, está fantástico con una interpretación medida en la que cambia ligeramente la voz, lleva otra nariz y sabe sacar partido al carisma del expresidente en público. En este episodio especial por el estreno de la serie, charlamos con él, pero también con las directoras de casting Eva Leira y Yolanda Serrano, que fueron a Londres a hacerle una prueba para confirmar la intuición inicial, y con Fernando Garcia, estilista de vestuario en cine que tuvo que encontrar los trajes y complementos para hacer a todos los personajes creíbles. 

Send us a textWe trace how a misclassification by New York's DEC snowballed into media damage, lost tenants, and a fight to restore due process. Julian shares the legal roadmap he's using—Article 78, TROs, and FOIL—to check agency overreach and updates his Smithsonian case.• DEC's legitimate role versus ideological overreach• Dry-cleaner chemicals PCE and TCE and migration risk• Conflicted reports and a 2017 letter that misclassified the property• Statutory notice requirements and due process failures• Media rollout without owner notice and tenant fallout• Article 78 strategy and emergency TRO to halt actions• FOIL requests and withheld communications• Institutional inertia and accountability in government• Smithsonian case update and structural independence• Practical steps for citizens to document and push backCheck out episode 298 for the Smithsonian Caseshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeLawJhSgnEFollow Julian at ...https://smithsoninstitution.com/https://www.prlog.org/13110258-emergency-court-hearing-set-in-raven-nys-dec-property-rights-battle-alleged-misclassification.htmlhttps://714baldwinstreet.com/Support the showFollow your host atYouTube and Rumble for video contenthttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUxk1oJBVw-IAZTqChH70aghttps://rumble.com/c/c-4236474Facebook to receive updateshttps://www.facebook.com/EliasEllusion/ LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/eliasmarty/ Some free goodies Free website to help you and me https://thefreewebsiteguys.com/?js=15632463 New Paper https://thenewpaper.co/refer?r=srom1o9c4gl

去年秋天，特朗普在总统竞选阶段允诺下不少经济政策。现在回顾，这些允诺兑现得如何了？ 把各国都得罪了一遍的关税果真让制造业回流了吗？为什么说「大而美法案」是特朗普固定自己政治遗产的手段？而当美国政府越发重视产业政策，甚至开始以股东的身份介入产业、左右企业决策时，这种被美国媒体称为是「国家资本主义」的转向，又意味着什么？ 这一期，我们和老朋友周玖洲一起，复盘特朗普竞选成功一周年的经济实验：兑现的承诺、意料之外的后果，以及受此影响可能正在被重塑的美国经济秩序。 本期人物 周玖洲 Aaron，资深投资人 &「不止金钱」、「涉市未深」主播 徐涛，声动活泼联合创始人 主要话题 [11:40] 关税提高了，美国本土的制造业回流了吗？ [19:49] 「大而美法案」：谁的钱变多了，谁的钱变少了，赤字解决了吗？ [33:26] 华尔街日报为什么说这是「美国特色的国家资本主义」？ [54:29] 美国的就业数据居然是不准确的？ 延伸阅读 玖洲的播客：涉市未深 (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/64f179eaa7acfd652eb2ae80) 不止金钱 (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/65a625966d045a7f5e0b5640) PCE 指数（personal consumption expenditure price index） (https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%80%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%B6%88%E8%B2%BB%E6%94%AF%E5%87%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%83%B9%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B8) 以美国经济分析局国民收入与生产统计中国民生产总值（GDP）之最大构成项目 —— 个人消费支出（personal consumption expenditure，PCE）计算得出 All in Podcast (https://www.youtube.com/@allin) 往期节目 #356 看似遥远的债务危机和赤字，对普通人意味着什么 (https://etw.fm/2174) 给声东击西投稿 当下，AI 越来越多地出现在了招聘的过程中，企业在用 AI 筛简历、做面试，求职者也在用 AI 润色简历、模拟回答……AI 智斗 AI 的场景正在上演。 无论你是招人的 HR，还是正在找工作的应聘者，又或是相关 AI 技术的开发者，如果你经历过类似的场景，或者有相关的经历想要分享或吐槽，都欢迎你给我们投稿！投稿方式在节目的 shownotes 和评论区中可以找到，期待你的来信！ 你的声音可能出现在未来的节目当中，我们非常期待你的分享！ 投稿入口 (https://eg76rdcl6g.feishu.cn/share/base/form/shrcne1CGVaSeJwtBriW6yNT2dg) 你也可以直接通过邮箱直接联系节目组：kexuan@shengfm.cn 「Knock Knock 世界｜秋季敲门版」上线啦！ Untitled https://media24.fireside.fm/file/fireside-uploads-2024/images/8/8dd8a56f-9636-415a-8c00-f9ca6778e511/hlqVv_ii.png 新学期伊始，我们特别推出了「Knock Knock 世界｜秋季敲门版」，每期 10 分钟，和青少年一起解读一个全球新鲜事，话题涉及社会、科技、商业、文化。 - 更新时间：整个秋季学期，从 9 月 1 日开始到 1 月 30 日 - 期数：60 期 - 售价：179 元 前三期依然可以免费收听，其中包括我们在线下选题会和少年听友们一起制作的两期正式节目。点击收听：https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/6899a9e12540fdafbd245d41 已经购买了「Knock Knock 世界」的朋友们无需重复购买，秋季敲门版里的节目是全年节目的一小部分。不过，也欢迎把秋季敲门版分享给更多志同道合的新朋友，我们也为每一位帮助我们成功邀请的老听友准备了一份专属礼物！感兴趣的朋友可以点击链接收听。 加入我们 声动活泼目前开放【商业发展经理、节目监制，以及内容实习生（可远程）、早咖啡实习生、商业实习生和运营实习生】岗位，详情点击招聘入口：加入声动活泼（在招职位速览） (https://eg76rdcl6g.feishu.cn/docx/XO6bd12aGoI4j0xmAMoc4vS7nBh)，点击相应链接即可查看岗位详情及投递指南。 Untitled https://media24.fireside.fm/file/fireside-uploads-2024/images/8/8dd8a56f-9636-415a-8c00-f9ca6778e511/1TCNqViU.jpg 幕后制作 监制：可宣 内容实习生：飞扬 后期：赛德 运营：George 设计：饭团 商务合作 声动活泼商业化小队，点击链接可直达商务会客厅（商务会客厅链接：https://sourl.cn/QDhnEc ），也可发送邮件至 business@shengfm.cn 联系我们。 关于声动活泼 「用声音碰撞世界」，声动活泼致力于为人们提供源源不断的思考养料。 我们还有这些播客：不止金钱（2024 全新发布） (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/65a625966d045a7f5e0b5640)、跳进兔子洞第三季（2024 全新发布） (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/666c0ad1c26e396a36c6ee2a)、声东击西 (https://etw.fm/episodes)、声动早咖啡 (https://sheng-espresso.fireside.fm/)、What's Next｜科技早知道 (https://guiguzaozhidao.fireside.fm/episodes)、反潮流俱乐部 (https://fanchaoliuclub.fireside.fm/)、泡腾 VC (https://popvc.fireside.fm/)、商业WHY酱 (https://msbussinesswhy.fireside.fm/) 欢迎在即刻 (https://okjk.co/Qd43ia)、微博等社交媒体上与我们互动，搜索 声动活泼 即可找到我们。 也欢迎你写邮件和我们联系，邮箱地址是：ting@sheng.fm 获取更多和声动活泼有关的讯息，你也可以扫码添加声小音，在节目之外和我们保持联系！ 声小音 https://files.fireside.fm/file/fireside-uploads/images/8/8dd8a56f-9636-415a-8c00-f9ca6778e511/hdvzQQ2r.png Special Guest: 周玖洲 Aaron.

In the second of a two-part episode, Morgan Stanley's chief economists talk about their near-term U.S. outlook based on tariffs, labor supply and the Fed's response. They also discuss India's path to strong economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Mike Gapen, Chetan Ahya and Jens Eisenschmidt, who cover the U.S., Asia, and Europe respectively. We talked about... Well, we didn't get to the U.S. We talked about Asia. We talked about Europe. Today, we are going to focus on the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world. It's Wednesday, October 1st at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10 pm in Hong Kong. All right, gentlemen. So yesterday we talked a lot about China, the anti-involution policy, and what's going on with deflation there. Talked a little bit about Japan and what the Bank of Japan is doing. We shifted over to Europe and what the ECB is doing there – there were lots of questions about deflation, disinflation, whether or not inflation might actually pick up in Japan. So, [that] was all about soft inflation. Mike, let me put you on the spot here, because things are, well, things are a little bit different in the U.S. when it comes to inflation. A lot of attention on tariffs and whether or not tariffs are going to drive up inflation. Of course, inflation, the United States never got back to the Fed's target after the COVID surge of inflation. So, where do you see inflation going? Is the effect of tariffs – has that fully run its course, or is there still more entrained? How do you see the outlook for inflation in the U.S.? Michael Gapen: Yeah, certainly a key question for the outlook here. So, core PCE inflation is running around 2.9 percent. We think it can get towards 3, maybe a little above 3 by year end. We do not think that the economy has fully absorbed tariffs yet; we think more pass through is coming. The President just announced additional tariffs the other day. We had them factored into our baseline. I think it's fair to say companies are still figuring out exactly how much they can pass through to consumers and when. So, I think the year-on-year rate of inflation will continue to move higher into year end. Hit 3 percent, maybe a little bit above. The key question then is what happens in 2026. Is inflation driven by tariffs transitory – the famous T word; and the year-on-year rate of inflation will come back down? That's what the Fed's forecast thinks; we do as well. But as everyone knows, the Fed has started to ease policy to support the labor market. The economy has performed pretty well, so there's a risk maybe that inflation doesn't come down as much next year. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so tariffs are clearly a key policy variable that can affect inflation. There's also been immigration restriction, to say the least, and what we saw coming out of COVID – when people were reluctant to go back to work, and businesses were reporting lots of shortages of workers – is that in certain services industries, we saw some pressure on prices. So, tariffs mostly affect consumer goods prices. Is there a contribution from immigration restriction onto overall inflation through services? Michael Gapen: I think the answer is yes; and I hesitate there because it's hard to see it in real time. But it is fair to say the average immigrant in the U.S. is younger. They have higher rates of labor force participation. They tend to reside in lower income households. So, they're labor supply heavy in terms of their effect on the economy. And yes, they tend to have larger relative presence in construction and manufacturing. But in terms of numbers, a lot of immigrants work in the service sector, as you note. And services inflation has been to the upside lately, right? So, the surprise has been that goods inflation maybe hasn't been as strong. The pass through from tariffs has been weaker. But in terms of upside surprises in inflation, it's common services and in many cases, non-housing related services. So, I'd say there's maybe some nascent signs that immigration controls may be keeping services prices firmer than thought. But may be hard to tie that directly at the moment. So, it's easier to say I think immigration controls may prevent inflation from coming down as much next year. It's not altogether clear how much they're pushing services inflation up. I think there's some evidence to support that, and we'll have to see whether that continues. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so we're seeing higher costs and higher prices from tariffs. We're seeing less labor supply when it comes to immigration. Those seem like a recipe for a big slowdown in growth, and I think that's been your forecast for quite some time – is that the U.S. was going to slow down a lot. Are we seeing that in the data? Is the U.S. economy slowing down or is everything just fine? How are you thinking about it? And what's the evidence that there's a slowdown and what are maybe the counterarguments that there's not that much of a slowdown? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the data doesn't support much of a slowdown. So yes, the economy did moderate in the first half of the year. I think the smart thing to do is average through Q1 and Q2 outcomes [be]cause there was a lot of volatility in trade and inventories. If you do that, the economy grew at about a 1.8 percent annualized rate in the first half of the year, down from about 2.5 percent last year. So, some moderation there, but not a lot. We would argue that that probably isn't a tariff story. We would've expected tariffs and immigration policies to have greater downward pressure on growth in the second half of the year. But to your question, incoming data in the third quarter has been really strong, and we're tracking growth somewhere around 3 percent right now.So, there's not a lot of evidence in hand at present that tariffs are putting significant downward pressure on growth. Seth Carpenter: So those growth numbers that you cite are on spending, which is normally the way we calculate things like GDP, consumption spending. But the labor market, I mean, non-farm payroll reports really have been quite weak. How do you reconcile that intellectual tension on the one hand spending holding up? On the other hand, that job creation [is] pretty, pretty weak. Michael Gapen: Yeah. I think the way that we would reconcile it is when we look at the data for the non-financial corporate sector, what appears to be clear is that non-labor costs have risen and tariffs would reside in that. And the data does show that what would be called unit non-labor costs. So, the cost per unit of output attributable to everything other than labor that rose a lot. What corporates apparently did was they reduced labor costs. And they absorbed some of it in lower profitability. What they didn't do was push price a lot. We'll see how long this tension can go on. It may be that corporates are in the early stages of passing through inflation, so we will see more inflation further out in a slowdown in spending. Or it may be that corporates are deciding that they will bear most of the burden of the tariffs, and cost control and efficiencies will be the order of the day. And maybe the Fed is right to be worried about downside risk to employment. So, I reconcile it that way. I think corporates have absorbed most of the tariff shock to date, and we're still in the early stages of seeing whether or not they will be able to pass it along to consumers. Seth Carpenter: All right, so then let's think about the Fed, the central bank. Yesterday, I talked to Chetan about the Bank of Japan. There reflation is real. Talked to Jens yesterday about the ECB where inflation has come down. So, those other developed market economies, the prescriptions for monetary policy are pretty straightforward. The Fed, on the other hand, they're in a bit of a bind in that regard. What do you think the Fed is trying to achieve here? How would you describe their strategy? Michael Gapen: I would describe their strategy as a recalibration, which is, I think, you know, technical monetary policy jargon for – where their policy stance is now; is not correct to balance risks to the economy. Earlier this year, the Fed thought that the primary risk was to persistent inflation. Boy, the effective tariff rate was rising quickly and that should pass due to inflation. We should be worried about upside risk to inflation. And then employment decelerated rapidly and has stayed low now for four consecutive months. Yes, labor supply has come down, but there's also a lot of evidence that labor demand has come down. So, I think what the Fed is saying is the balance of risks have become more balanced. They need to worry about inflation, but now they also need to worry about the labor market. So having a restrictive policy stance in their mind doesn't make sense. The Fed's not arguing – we need to get below neutral. We need to get easy. They're just saying we probably need to move in the direction of neutral. That will allow us to respond better if inflation stays firm or the labor market weakens. So, a recalibration meaning, you know, we think two more rate cuts into year end get a little bit closer to neutral, and that puts them in a better spot to respond to the evolving economic conditions. Seth Carpenter: All right. That makes a lot of sense. We can't end a conversation this year about the Fed, though, without touching on the fact that the White House has been putting a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve trying to get Chair Powell and his committee to push interest rates substantially lower than where they are now. Michael Gapen: You've noticed? Seth Carpenter: I've noticed. From my understanding, a lot of people in markets have noticed as well. There's been some turnover among policy makers. We have a new member of the Board of Governors of the Fed. This discussion about Federal Reserve independence. How do you think about it? Is Chair Powell changing policy based on political pressure? Michael Gapen: I don't think so. I think there's enough evidence in the labor market data to support the Fed's shift in stance. We have certainly highlighted immigration controls, what they would mean for the labor force. And how that means even a slowing, growing economy could keep the unemployment rate low. But it's also fair to say labor demand has come down. If labor demand were still very strong, you might see job openings higher, you might see vacancies higher. You may even see faster wage growth. So, I think the Fed's right to look at the labor market and say, ‘Okay, on the surface, it looks like a no hire, no fire labor market. We can live with that, but there are some layoffs underneath. There are signs of weakness. Slack is getting created slowly.' So, I think the Fed has solid ground to stand on in terms of shifting their view. But you're right, that looking forward into 2026 with the end of Powell's term as chair and likely turnover in other areas of the board. Whether the Fed maintains a conventional reaction function or one that's perhaps more politically driven remains an open question – and I think is a risk for investors. Seth Carpenter: I want to change things up a lot here. Chetan, yesterday you and I talked about China. We talked about Japan. Two really big economies that I think are well known to investors.Another economy in Asia that you cover is India. For a long time, we have said India was going to be the fastest growing major economy in the world. Do you still see it to be the case? That India's got a really bright growth outlook? And in the current circumstance with tariffs going on, how do you think India is fairing vis-a-vis U.S. tariffs? Chetan Ahya: So yes, Seth, we are still optimistic about India's growth outlook. Having said that, you know, there are two issues that the economy has been going through. Number one is that the domestic demand had slowed down because of previous tightening of fiscal and monetary policies. And at the same time, we have now seen this trade tensions, which will slow global trade. But also, directly India will be affected by the fact that the U.S. has imposed 50 percent tariff on close to 60 percent of India's exports to the U.S. So, both these issues are affecting the outlook in the near term. We still don't have clarity on what happens on trade tensions, but what we have seen is that the government has really worked quite hard to get the economy going from domestic demand perspective. And so, they have taken up three sets of policy actions. They have reduced household income tax. The central bank has cut interest rates because inflation has been in control. And at the same time, they have now just recently announced reduction in Goods and Services Tax, which is akin to like consumption tax. And so, these three policy actions together we think will drive domestic demand growth from the fourth quarter of this year itself. It will still be not back up to strong growth levels. And for that we still need that solution to trade policy uncertainty. But I think there will be a significant recovery coming up in the next few months. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks for that, Chetan. It's such an interesting story going on there in India. Well, Michael, Chetan, thank the three of you for joining me today in this conversation. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, hosts Guy Adami and Dan Nathan discuss the latest economic indicators, including the September non-farm payrolls, PCE inflation readings, and GDP data. They analyze the inconsistency between accelerating GDP and slowing employment growth, touching on the potential impact of AI and reduced immigration. The conversation further explores the recent market dynamics, including bond yields, the performance of major tech stocks, particularly the AI-driven surge of Nvidia, and the skepticism from various market commentators. They also discuss recent government investments in Intel and the unusual valuation of TikTok in a proposed acquisition deal. The episode wraps up with a look ahead at the upcoming earnings report from Nike and what they might indicate for the broader market. Links Mentioned The Daily Spark (Apollo) David Einhorn Sounds Warning on the AI Spending Splurge - (Bloomberg) Spending on AI Is at Epic Levels. Will It Ever Pay Off? (WSJ) An $800 Billion Revenue Shortfall Threatens AI Future, Bain Says (Bloomberg) AI investment bubble inflated by trio of dilemmas (Reuters) The $100 Billion Nvidia-OpenAI Virtuous Circle Has an Ugly Side (Bloomberg) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump is imposing tariffs on the rest of countries to bring manufactures back to this the US. The US economy is growing the Fed is going to try to stop the growth by pushing back on the rate cut. The Fed inflation detector shows no sign of runaway inflation. Trump is now pushing the narrative to fire Powell, leverage is the name of the game. The [DS] is panicking, Trump and team are now indicting those who are treasonous to this country. The started out with the lying, he is testing the waters, testing the judges building the narrative for the people of this country. The [DS] players are pushing back by using Antifa. These will intensify over time and Trump will counter the insurgency/insurrection with the military. The military is the only way, buckle up.   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");  Trump Imposes 25% Tariff On Imported Heavy Trucks Starting Oct. 1 Deborah Elms of the Hinrich Foundation said the sweeping tariffs leave major questions unanswered, including whether they comply with existing trade agreements, but predicted they would “almost certainly drive up prices for American buyers.” Source: zerohedge.com Mexico is the largest supplier of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to the U.S., followed by Canada, Japan, Germany, and Turkey. Heavy-truck shipments from U.S. plants climbed from a low of $1.1 billion in April 2020 to $3.2 billion this July, though they have dipped modestly this year, Federal Reserve data shows.   Fed cautious on rate cuts as GDP surges; warns of potential inflation risks Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that the central bank will weigh the GDP numbers carefully as it considers future rate cuts. “If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later,” Powell said. Source:  13wham.com  Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Shows No Sign Of Runaway Tariff Costs, As Savings Rate Slides  After a modest increase two months ago, and a steady print in July, analysts expected headline PCE to be steady at +2.6% YoY in August and Core PCE - the Fed's favorite indicator - to also be unchanged at 2.9% YoY... and the numbers all came in right in line with expectations. Indeed, "as expected" is the them of this morning's data with headline and Core PCE both matching expectations and staying in the same range they have been in for two years... not exactly the Trump Tariff terror future that every "respected" economist predicted. All those expecting a bounce in Durable Goods inflation will have to wait another month: in August it actually declined again, as did Nondurable Goods, while Services costs increased the most.  On the income side, there was more good news: after outpacing the private sector for nearly three years, wage growth of private workers (5.0% YoY) is once again rising faster than government workers. In fact, government worker wage growth of 4.2% was the lowest since August 2021.   Source: zerohedge.com    Political/Rights BREAKING: Sinclair Caves, Will Bring Jimmy Kimmel's Show Back