Podcasts about PCE

This week on Stock Market Options Trading, Eric O'Rourke and Brian Terry break down the latest market action following geopolitical headlines, discuss why the recent SPX rally continues to stall, and share several option trading ideas they're watching this week.Topics covered include:Why the latest SPX gap higher failed and what it says about market sentimentCurrent gamma levels and key support/resistance zonesThis week's major economic events, including the FOMC meeting, GDP, PCE, and Consumer ConfidenceWhy intraday trend trading has become more challenging in recent weeksNew research showing stronger end-of-day trading opportunitiesEric's updated 0DTE trading approach and end-of-day Iron Condor strategyBrian's QQQ and Micron (MU) broken-wing put butterfly tradesManaging defined-risk option strategies during volatile marketsWhether you're trading SPX, QQQ, or individual stocks, this episode explores how current market conditions are changing the way we approach options trading and risk management.Resources Mentioned► Alpha Crunching: https://alphacrunching.com► Stock Market Options Trading Podcast: https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.netIf you enjoy systematic options trading, backtesting, and weekly market analysis, be sure to subscribe for new episodes every week.#SPX #OptionsTrading #StockMarket #0DTE #SPXOptions #Gamma #FOMC #IronCondor #QQQ #Micron #TradingPodcast

Joe Consorti is a Bitcoin and global capital markets researcher, and a leading voice at the intersection of Bitcoin & institutional finance.› https://x.com/joeconsorti› https://youtube.com/@joeconsortiPARTNERS

In today's Daily Editorial, we sit down with Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report. Craig breaks down the quiet start to the trading week amidst broader geopolitical tension, steadying US Dollar strength, and key upcoming macroeconomic catalysts. We explore expectations surrounding the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, projected interest rate movements, and incoming PCE inflation data. Additionally, we analyze the precious metals space, focusing on earnings expectations, valuation disparities, and market sentiment surrounding major producers like Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines. Key Discussion Points Summer Trading Dynamics & Geopolitics: Exploring the market's muted reaction to global conflict headlines, crude oil price fluctuations, and key technical levels in the US Dollar index. Fed Quiet Period & Rate Outlook: Analyzing market expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, potential rate hike scenarios, and the timing of a potential policy pivot. Inflation Trends & PCE Preview: Evaluating incoming PCE data and how energy costs impact broad economic forecasts. Precious Metals & Mining Earnings Sector Preview: Unpacking cost structures, profit margins, and overall market sentiment ahead of key quarterly reporting from major producers and mid-tier miners.   Click here to visit Craig's website - TF Metals Report - https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/   --------------------- For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks: The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/   Investment Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Yesterday's inflation report delivered a surprise. Headline prices fell sharply, but the important story was beneath the headline. This was not a gasoline story. Core inflation was unchanged for the month, and several categories that have kept inflation stubbornly high moved lower. For investors, that distinction matters because it changes the conversation around interest rates today.The new report is the Consumer Price Index, not the Personal Consumption Expenditures index that the Federal Reserve prefers. The PCE report still showed elevated inflation. But the CPI components give us a preview of where price pressure may be heading. Core CPI came in flat, compared with expectations for an increase. Core goods declined. Medical services, transportation services, used vehicles, and automobile insurance showed softness. Those are signs of broader disinflation, not merely cheaper oil.------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On Wednesday, July 15, Brian Szytel reports modest market gains (Dow +150, S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%) amid a positive early Q2 earnings tone, though Middle East tensions temper sentiment and momentum tech (semis and software) has been pressured. He highlights notable strength in financials, citing rising lending, M&A, and capital markets activity, with investment banking up about 30%, capital markets up over 15%, and financial earnings up over 6%, viewing this as a forward-looking sign of economic confidence. The day's key news was a second straight cooler-than-expected inflation report: PPI fell 0.3% vs flat expected and core rose 0.2% vs 0.4% expected, implying a favorable PCE read. He discusses potential market impacts if Strait of Hormuz disruption persisted (higher oil, inflation, rates; pressure on long-duration assets; benefits to U.S. production), while noting futures imply ~$75 oil in a year, and adds a strong Empire State manufacturing print (15.6 vs 8.4 expected). 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:23 Earnings Season Pulse 01:00 Financials Lead Strength 02:26 Cooler Inflation Data 03:40 Hormuz Risk Scenario 05:15 Futures Reality Check 05:28 Manufacturing Beat Wrap 05:57 Final Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful.Eric Pachman on Xhttps://x.com/EricPachmanData 4 The Peoplehttps://www.data4thepeople.com/Main topics coveredWhy the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market storiesWhy unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age AmericansThe decline in participation among older workers and menHow healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growthWhy Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending riskWhat occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare payThe differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleadingHow crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy pricesWhy falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retailWhat the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holdersHow Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research toolsTimestamps00:00 Intro04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth24:18 Why inflation is moving higher30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem44:05 Why diesel is the inflation risk that matters most48:34 The single-income stress test and consumer fragility54:42 Data 4 The People's nonprofit mission59:00 Building an AI research assistant for public data01:03:37 Where to follow Eric and Data 4 The PeopleLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran are putting energy markets back in focus, with oil prices rising again and gas prices remaining higher than many drivers expected.Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti break down why renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could pressure oil prices, why gas prices have not fallen as quickly as crude oil, and how refinery capacity and crack spreads help explain what consumers are paying at the pump. They also discuss what the latest Fed meeting minutes reveal about Kevin Warsh's inflation fight, how changes to the PCE price index could affect the Fed's inflation target, and why a shrinking labor force may create longer-term challenges for wages, inflation, and economic growth.

What's new since the last Macro Matters? We have a new co-host!   Jessica Noviskis joins Tony Zhang and Rich Excell to cover the market moves of the last 2 weeks. As many were on holiday, they may have missed the economic news on inflation (PCE) and growth (ISM). They likely didn't miss the price action in semis & memory that are dragging the Nasdaq lower. Does this make the July earnings season even more important? Have a listen to find out

Happy 250th! The bulls are bubbling up! Yentervention – it is a thing. Labor market predictions. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - 250 Years! - We have the scorecard - Bulls are on the loose! - Kevin Hassett - what a putz - RAM JOB! Markets - Google's first day in the DJIA - a good one - SpaceX bonds already losing -Yen slips to 1986 levels - Yentervention? WHAT A PUTZ! - Trump Accounts launch July 4, with the NYSE and Nasdaq set to ring the opening bell from the Oval Office. - Program gives a $1,000 Treasury-funded investment account to U.S. children born from January 1, 2025 through December 31, 2028. - Kids under 18 can have accounts, but only newborns in that four-year window get the federal seed money. - Parents, family, employers, nonprofits, and governments can add money, with a general $5,000 annual contribution cap. - Money is invested in index funds and generally locked up until the child reaches adulthood. - Kevin Hassett pitched it as a way to teach kids about markets, ownership, saving, and compounding. His argument is that the more young people get exposed to investing early, and market ownership becomes less of an upper-income club. - However - > the government is handing out taxpayer-funded brokerage seed money while selling it as capitalism. - Also odd: the benefit may skew toward families who already know how to file forms, open accounts, and add more money. - So basically it is a forced financial-literacy experiment wrapped in a political brand name, with a socialist starter check to teach capitalism. First-Half Winners and Losers - S&P 500 finished the first half up roughly 7% to 8%, with the rally led by AI hardware, chips, memory, and data-center infrastructure. - Biggest winners were the shovel sellers: Sandisk up about 780%, Micron up about 296%, Western Digital up about 240%, Seagate up about 226%. - Overseas AI hardware ripped too: South Korea's Kospi up 123%, helped by Samsung up 169% and SK Hynix up 303%. - Semiconductor ETFs had a monster Q2: iShares Semiconductor ETF up 86.8%, VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 64.8%. - Japan's Nikkei rose about 38%; FTSE 100 gained about 5.8%. - Losers were the software/platform names that could not prove immediate AI payoff. - Microsoft was down about 24% despite being one of the biggest AI spenders. - Momentum stocks had one of their worst stretches in two decades as the Magnificent Seven slipped on capex worries. - Crypto and gold also lagged the AI-infrastructure trade. - Equity BULLS are running like it was San Fermin, Spain... MORE.... - Gold biggest quarterly loss since 2013 - Japan best quarter ever - Oil starts and ends - Kospi best quarter in 30 years - Stoxx 600 best Q in 5 years Something is going to break! - When Micro announced earnings, and we see that companies are panicking (News about existential threat to smaller tech players).. We said something is going to break - MU shares lifted to ATH on the news - big big beat - Micron's latest quarter showed a dramatic acceleration from the year-ago period, with revenue rising from $9,301 to $41,460 and EPS increasing from $1.91 to $25.11. - HUGE uptick in guidance - Apple increased pricing, Dell is increasing prices next week (17%), Microsoft raised price on XBox, HP across the board increase, Lenovo/Xiaomi increases, - NOW: Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from China's ChangXin Memory Technologies Korea Goes All-In On AI Memory - Samsung and SK Hynix are backing a huge South Korea chip buildout tied to AI memory, HBM, advanced DRAM, packaging and data centers. - Samsung's plan includes hundreds of trillions of won for new fabs, including HBM facilities in Cheonan and Onyang. - SK Hynix is expanding Yongin and planning a major new chip base as it rides demand from Nvidia-linked HBM supply. - Government angle: Seoul wants domestic chip capacity treated like national infrastructure, not just corporate capex. - The state is trying to lock in supply-chain control before China, Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. pull more production into their own subsidy zones. - Market wrinkle: AI memory is hot now, but memory companies have a long history of overbuilding into strong pricing cycles. - Governments are no longer just subsidizing chips — they are helping plan semiconductor cities. RAM Job? - Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron were hit with a U.S. antitrust class-action lawsuit over alleged DRAM price fixing. - Allegation: the big three coordinated supply cuts while shifting capacity away from regular DDR3/DDR4 memory and into high-bandwidth memory for AI servers. - Plaintiffs say the three companies control roughly 90% of the DRAM market. - Conventional DRAM prices allegedly jumped about 700% over four years. - Complaint argues that in a normal commodity market, at least one supplier would usually increase production when prices spike. - Instead, the lawsuit says all three moved in the same direction at the same time. DRAM: We Have Seen This Movie Before - Yes, there was a similar DRAM price-fixing scandal in the 2000s. - DOJ investigation covered alleged DRAM price fixing from roughly 1998 through 2002. - Hynix pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $185 million criminal fine. - Samsung pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $300 million criminal fine. - Infineon pleaded guilty earlier, in 2004, and agreed to pay a $160 million fine. - Micron was involved in the investigation but received amnesty/cooperation treatment rather than the same criminal fine path. - Several executives were also charged or pleaded guilty. - State AGs and private plaintiffs later pursued civil cases tied to overpayment claims. - Difference now: the new case is not yet proven and appears focused on alleged coordinated supply restriction during the AI/HBM boom. Chevron and Microsoft - Chevron Corp signed 20-year deal with Microsoft for data center power. - Agreement supplies natural-gas fired generation for massive West Texas facility. - Project Kilby expected online 2028, ramping to 2.67 gigawatts. - Full output enough to power more than 530,000 Texas homes. - Chevron partnering Engine No. 1, final investment decision planned later. - Deal follows prior reports of exclusive long-term power negotiations. More Oil News - Drill baby Drill - Interior Department cutting federal drilling bonds by 95% to spur exploration. - Required bond drops from $500,000 to $25,000 for leases. - Bonds ensure cleanup costs don't fall on taxpayers if wells abandoned. - Policy change aims to encourage more oil and gas development. - Proposal subject to 60-day public comment after Federal Register publication. Dow 52,000 and the Tech Bounce - Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time Monday, finishing at 52,182.74. - S&P 500 gained 1.18%; Nasdaq jumped 2.07%. - S&P and Nasdaq snapped five-session losing streaks. - Alphabet rose 4.8% on its first day as a Dow component. - Tesla gained 8.5%; SpaceX rose more than 7%. - The bounce came after last week's tech selloff, with investors rotating back into mega-cap and AI names. Comcast Breaks Itself Up - Comcast plans to split media and connectivity into two separate companies. - NBCUniversal and Sky would be spun off in a tax-free deal; Comcast keeps broadband, wireless, and cable. - Completion expected within a year. - Shareholders would own both Comcast and the new NBCUniversal. - Comcast shares rose on the news; Charter also jumped as investors speculated Comcast could eventually pursue a broadband-scale deal. AI Trade Gets a Warning Label - Bank for International Settlements flagged the AI boom as a financial-stability risk. - The main concerns: elevated valuations, investor complacency, complex funding structures, and debt financing across the AI supply chain. - BIS also warned that record public debt and leveraged hedge-fund activity in sovereign bonds could amplify shocks. - Quote from BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos: "Policy actions must reinforce each other." - The interesting part: central bankers are not saying AI is fake; they are saying the financing stack may be fragile. Inflation Back Above 4% - BEA's PCE price index rose 4.1% year over year in May. - April was 3.8%; March was 3.5%; February was 2.9%. - This keeps pressure on the Fed because PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. - Core PCE may later be revised lower because of BEA methodology changes. - Goldman estimated May core PCE could be trimmed to 3.2% from 3.4%; JPMorgan expected 3.3%. - Funny-but-real detail: part of the potential revision comes from how BEA prices portfolio management, legal services, and computer software. Jobs Report Becomes Bad-News-Is-Bad-News - June payrolls are due Thursday because markets are closed Friday for Independence Day. - The setup is awkward: strong jobs could mean stronger economy, but also higher odds of Fed hikes. - Looking back - May payrolls were hot at 172,000 versus an 85,000 forecast, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. - Remember - after the June Fed meeting, policymakers were clearly focused on inflation, not rescue cuts. Oil, Iran, and the Market's New Weird Routine - Oil stayed volatile around renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and peace-talk headlines. - Brent rose 1.6% Monday to $73.15; WTI rose 2.2% to $70.75. - Markets rallied anyway, helped by signs talks would resume and shipping routes were stabilizing. - The odd market behavior: geopolitical escalation keeps getting followed by de-escalation headlines and risk-on rallies. - This is now part of the trading pattern: weekend war scare, Monday relief rally, repeat. --- New attacks by USA on Iran happened at approx 4:30PM on Friday (markets closed) and then a halt to the fighting on Sunday - before the futures opened. Odd : Wendy's Becomes a Meme Stock - Wendy's became the latest retail-trader short-squeeze target. - Stock surged 25% last Wednesday, then gained another 9% Thursday. - Barron's said the move followed a CFO shakeup and WallStreetBets attention. - New CFO Steve Cirulis came from Potbelly and is also taking the Chief Strategy Officer title. - Wendy's had fallen 47% over the past year before the rally. - Short interest was nearly 30% of the public float, making the stock easier to squeeze. - Trian, Nelson Peltz's firm, owned nearly 15 million shares valued around $93 million. SpaceX Bonds Slip After Big Debut - SpaceX sold $25 billion of investment-grade bonds, its first major public debt deal. - Demand was huge, with roughly $85 billion to $98 billion of orders. - The 10-year tranche priced about 1.4 percentage points over Treasurys. - Bonds weakened quickly after pricing. - The 10-year yield rose near 6%, with the spread moving above 1.6 percentage points. - Longer-dated 2046 and 2056 bonds took the most pressure. - The pushback: bond buyers want more yield for a company still funding rockets, Starlink, AI/data-center spending, and Mars ambitions. - Clean read: equity investors bought the story; bond investors immediately marked it down. Yentervention - Yen weakened again, pushing toward the 162-per-dollar zone and near its weakest level in about 40 years. - Japan keeps warning it is ready for "decisive action" or to respond "at any time." - Market does not seem scared for long. - Japan already spent heavily defending the yen, including a roughly $73 billion yen-buying operation after the currency broke past 160. - U.S. rates are still high, the Fed is not rushing to cut, and the Bank of Japan is still moving slowly. - That keeps the carry trade alive: borrow cheap yen, buy higher-yielding dollars. - Japan's foreign reserves fell 5.6% in May after intervention, showing the defense is expensive.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

We talk the foldable iPhone, Michael Jackson's death, and Trump passports. Some other notable news:Micron delivered one of the most stunning quarters in semiconductor history, reporting roughly $41.5 billion in fiscal-Q3 revenue, up about 346% year over year, and guiding next quarter to about $50 billion with an 81% gross margin. The read-through is that AI has turned high-bandwidth memory from a boom-bust commodity into a scarce, contracted input for the next generation of compute.SpaceX's record IPO unwound almost as violently as it launched, with the stock falling 31% in four sessions from its June 16 peak and erasing more than $600 billion of market value. A 4.2% public float, a $20 billion bond sale, newly listed options, August lockup risk, and a $4.9 billion 2025 net loss all collided in one of the clearest market-structure lessons of the AI trade.Oracle disclosed about 21,000 job cuts and directly tied the reductions to AI adoption in its own annual filing, even as it expands AI cloud capacity through major data-center deals linked to OpenAI and Meta. China also reclaimed the world's-fastest-supercomputer crown with LineShine, an all-domestic CPU-only system that hit 2.198 exaflops under U.S. export controls.A fatal Tesla crash in Katy, Texas, reopened the self-driving accountability fight after the driver said he had been using Tesla's partially automated driving system and both NHTSA and NTSB opened investigations. Robotics funding added the other side of the physical-AI story, with about $55.8 billion raised so far in 2026 and Figure banking a $1 billion Series C at a $39 billion valuation.The runner-ups: FedEx beat expectations and completed the FedEx Freight spin-off, onsemi agreed to buy Synaptics for about $7 billion to push deeper into edge and physical AI, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres pressed AI companies to disclose data-center emissions, water use, land use, and energy sources. The 30,000-ft view: Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, PCE inflation ran at 4.6%, markets repriced toward possible Fed hikes, Nvidia's Vera CPUs entered full production, and the mega-IPO pipeline still has Anthropic and OpenAI queued. If you want a prize, send us a DM: instagram.com/rickerandbon tiktok.com/@rickerandbon youtube.com/@rickerandbon

THE PCE report is out – now the Fed has a decision. Micron blew away estimates – chip prices are soaring. The annual stress tests showing – all clear and banks respond. A great time to bring on our guest – Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading. NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE'S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Carley Garner is a futures and options broker with DeCarley Trading, a division of Zaner Financial Services in Las Vegas, Nevada. With nearly two decades of experience, her commodity market analysis is often referenced on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC, and she is a regular guest on Bloomberg Television’s Options Insight segment with Abigail Doolittle. You might also see her on the Cow Guy Close hosted by Scott Shellady on RFD-TV and “Futures” aired on Schwab Network. Garner is a regular contributor to TheStreet.com and its Pro service and is also a regular on the speaking circuit. She can be found at TradersEXPOs and MoneyShows throughout the country. Garner is also an award-winning author of commodity futures and options trading books. In addition to Trading Commodity Options with Creativity, Garner has authored Higher Probability Commodity Trading; A Trader’s First Book on Commodities (three editions); Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets; and Commodity Options. She pens a monthly column for the long-running Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities Magazine. Her e-newsletters, The DeCarley Perspective and The Financial Futures Report have garnered a loyal following; she is also proactive in providing free trading education at www.DeCarleyTrading.com Follow @andrewhorowitz More information available on Horowitz & Company’s TDI Managed Growth Strategy Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Stocks mentioned in this episode: (GLD), (SLV), (SPY)

This episode of Money Talk opens with a tribute to Alan Greenspan, who passed away at age 100. Hosts Dave Spano and Chief Economic Strategist Dr. Brian Jacobson reflect on his long tenure as Fed Chair (1987–2006), the evolution of Fed transparency (from the “briefcase indicator” to today's detailed forward guidance and dot plots), his famous “irrational exuberance” warning, and parallels to current AI-driven productivity gains.Market and Economic DiscussionAI and “Tech Wreck”: The conversation shifts to recent market volatility in tech, particularly the move from semiconductors (Nvidia etc.) to memory chips (Micron and others). Record earnings and ~85% gross margins at Micron highlight strong pricing power, but any hint of slowing growth causes big stock swings. This demand is driving up consumer prices—Apple, Microsoft (Xbox), and Sony raised device prices, with electronic goods up ~10% year-over-year per the PCE index.Data Centers and Policy Risks: Explosive data center growth faces local/state pushback and potential federal moratoriums, adding election-year volatility.Global Update: UK political turmoil post-Brexit and rising populism; Middle East developments with ships resuming through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to round-trip lower; a flattening Treasury yield curve signaling possible slower growth.Financial Planning SegmentsRestricted Stock Units (RSUs): Tom Bergholtz and Arabella Parent explain RSUs as common equity compensation—graded vs. cliff vesting, tax treatment (ordinary income at vesting, capital gains on sale), withholding shortfalls, and differences from Restricted Stock Awards (RSAs).Retirement Milestones: Senior Wealth Manager Mary Lou Davidoff outlines key ages (50, 55, 59½, 62, 65, 70, 73, etc.) for tax, Social Security, and savings strategies. Emphasis on starting early (e.g., Roth IRAs), flexibility when “life happens,” and holistic planning.Caregiver Tax Benefits: Dan Phillips highlights overlooked deductions and credits for the 63 million family caregivers (big rise in recent years), including dependent care credits, medical expense deductions (above 7.5% AGI), and record-keeping tips. A proposed Caregiving Act is noted.Wealthy Retiree Mindsets: Mike Dodge discusses habits like intentional spending with guardrails, continued investing for longevity/inflation, emotional discipline, proactive tax/estate/gifting strategies (including QCDs), and viewing wealth beyond just money (health, time, relationships).2026 Investment Themes: Mike Kirk covers AI integration for productivity, energy demands from data centers, shifting demographics and consumer habits across generations, and positioning portfolios around these macro forces.Historical ContextDr. Brian Jacobson continues the “America 250” series on 1913: creation of the Federal Reserve after the 1907 Panic, the 16th Amendment (income tax), 17th Amendment (direct Senate election), and shifts during WWI.The show reinforces Annex Wealth Management's fee-only fiduciary approach, in-house planning services, and encourages listeners to use the “Get Started” button at annexwealth.com. It balances market analysis, practical planning advice, and long-term perspective.

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche on this week's episode of "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" to break down what he calls a "slow motion train wreck" in private credit, where public and private funds alike are getting hammered with redemption requests just as the firms behind them sit on impaired assets like DSCR business-purpose loans. Whalen argues we're living through a replay of 2005 — high tide before the crack — and predicts a housing reset by 2027-2028 ("misery on the eights"), with home prices falling 10-20% and recent borrowers landing underwater. Along the way he covers double-digit inflation driven by energy supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz, why Chair Warsh can't slow-walk rate hikes, the volatility added by agentic AI trading and ETFs, his long-term bull case for gold and silver, the unwinding of Wall Street's crypto trade, the futility of Mamdani's NYC rent freeze, and viewer questions on inflation measurement and Annaly's common vs. preferred shares. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira861Fred Ramberg interview: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira860 Signed copy of Seeing Around Corners: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/shopTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:00:00 — Intro01:09 — Private credit: the "slow motion train wreck" and redemptions02:24 — Rates higher-for-longer, double-digit inflation & the Strait of Hormuz04:02 — The hidden cost of war and inflation as a tax05:33 — Private credit shops buying insurers & DSCR loans06:46 — "It's 2005 again" and the road to misery on the eights07:46 — Signposts: institutional fraud in business-purpose loans08:45 — What a DSCR loan is vs. a residential mortgage11:55 — The private credit gates connection12:32 — Predicting the 2028 housing reset & price declines14:52 — How rising prices have masked defaults15:27 — A 10-20% home price reset explained15:46 — Which markets crack first (Florida, Miami, blue-state Northeast)17:10 — Mom-and-pop investors and fix-and-flips17:49 — Advice for homebuyers: stay below the conforming limit18:42 — AI & semiconductor stock volatility19:15 — Agentic trading bots and market manipulation20:35 — Precious metals: gold below 4,000, silver near 5722:37 — PCE data, sticky inflation & the gold-silver case23:13 — Crypto falling apart, MicroStrategy & BlackRock selling24:33 — CME suing over perps (perpetual futures)25:34 — The NYC rent freeze / Mamdani hot take26:49 — Viewer mail: changing the definition of inflation28:20 — Viewer mail: is the debasement trade over?29:08 — Viewer mail: Annaly common vs. preferred31:03 — What's ahead next week (plus World Cup talk)32:46 — Wrap-up

PODCAST LAS NOTICIAS CON CALLE DE 26 DE JUNIO - Círculo de fuego activo con muchos terremotos cercanos - Axios Miss San Sebastián nos representará en Miss Universe desde PR - WAPA Plantean que viene racionamiento por falta de lluvia, se va el segundo en mando de la AAA - El Vocero Al menos 235 muertos confirmados por terremoto de Venezuela - CNN No hay los votos para presupuesto de la guerra de Irán, Senado federal se tranca a medida de Trump - SemaforComerciantes siguen pagando por el escaneo de los furgones, pero se quedan en Puertos y no van a la empresa que lo hace - El Vocero Tuto Bermúdez y el escándalo de la bandera de PR - El Vocero En moda la comida fermentada y terminada - Axios Rivera Schatz cambia los tribunales para que sean bajo sus nombrados totalmente el ejercicio del poder - El Nuevo Día Baja el precio del petróleo y se propone que suba menos la luz en PR - El Nuevo Día Invest PR dice que dos empresas de Taiwán interesan venir a PR tras evento en California - El Nuevo Día 33% de los residentes de PR han considerado irse por el alto costo y calidad de vida según encuesta de MIDA - El Nuevo Día Reportan ataque a barco de Ormuz y la ONU detiene intervención - Reuters Alvarado trajo trofeo de la NBA y recibe reconocimiento en PR - Telemundo PR Apple subió precios considerablemente por costo de microchips - Reuters La inflación PCE en EE.UU. subió a 4.1%, máximo en tres años, plantean subir tasa de interés El petróleo se cayó, la gasolina no: Brent -44% desde abril, pero la gasolina solo bajó ~12.5%Texas le está metiendo duro a energía solar para producir energía - Bloomberg Trump le pide a ChatGPT aguantar nuevo modelo de lanzamiento - Axios LOS DATOS DEL DÍACierre del jueves 25 de junio de 2026 Brent$72.51/barril (-3.5%) Diésel (wholesale)$3.17/galón S&P 5007,357.49 (-0.01%) Dow Jones51,920.62 (+0.14%) Bono 10Y del Tesoro4.39% Euro/USD1.138 (+0.19%) Gas natural$3.33/MMBtu (+1.1%) Tasa hipotecaria 30Y6.49% (Freddie Mac)

It was a mixed week on Wall Street with technology and inflation in focus. Investors seem more cautious about the AI boom as inflation rose in May with the PCE report rising 4.1% from than a year ago. Partner and Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth LLC Kenny Polcari joins FOX Business' Lydia Hu to discuss what that means for summer spending, plus the rise in popularity of socialism among young voters. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Inflation and investing are once again front and center as markets assess a new mix of price pressures. In this Ask Me Anything episode of The Bid, host Oscar Pulido is joined by Helen Jewell, BlackRock's International Chief Investment Officer for Fundamental Equities, and Tom Becker, senior portfolio manager on BlackRock's Global Tactical Asset Allocation team.Together, they explore what is driving inflation today, from AI infrastructure demand and energy bottlenecks to fiscal spending, supply constraints, and regional differences. The conversation examines how inflation is affecting capital markets, equities, fixed income, stock market trends, and portfolio diversification.This episode also looks at the role of AI as both a near-term inflationary force and a potential longer-term productivity driver. As AI investing accelerates demand for electricity, chips, copper, data centers, and infrastructure, investors are watching how these megaforces reshape markets and the global economy.Key insights:· How AI infrastructure demand is contributing to inflation pressures· Why inflation differs across regions, including the U.S., Europe, Japan, and China· Where pricing power matters most for companies and sectors· How inflation measures like CPI, PCE, and PPI inform market views· Why sticky inflation can challenge traditional stock-bond diversification· How investors can think about inflation across equities, bonds, and multi-asset portfolios

This week, we discuss the PCE report, new home sales, GDP, and PMI. Inflation continues to run well above the Federal Reserve's target. While personal income growth appeared strong, much of the increase reflected a one time government payment. Adjusting for this temporary boost, the savings rate fell to just 2.8%, suggesting that many consumers are increasingly stretched. New home sales surprised to the downside, while the median months for sale rose to its highest level since 2021, underscoring further weakness in the housing market. Although the final estimate of first quarter GDP was revised higher, the increase was driven primarily by a decline in imports rather than stronger domestic demand. More concerning, consumption growth was revised down from 1.0% in the initial estimate to just 0.5% in the final estimate, adding to evidence of a slowing consumer sector. Meanwhile, the headline manufacturing PMI appeared robust, but much of the strength reflected firms building inventories in response to supply concerns and policy uncertainty. Manufacturers also reported layoffs amid weakening demand and elevated uncertainty. Taken together, while several headline figures suggested resilience, the underlying details painted a considerably weaker picture of the economy.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down what looked like a strong GDP report and explains why the headline doesn't tell the whole story. Consumer spending weakened, inflation accelerated, and the latest PCE data may have significantly changed the outlook for interest rates. If your business is waiting for lower borrowing costs or trying to plan for the months ahead, these mixed economic signals could have important implications. Lauren explains what the latest data really means and why the Fed's next move may already be taking shape. Will higher inflation force the Fed to raise rates sooner than expected? Watch the full episode and let us know your thoughts in the comments.

It was a mixed week on Wall Street with technology and inflation in focus. Investors seem more cautious about the AI boom as inflation rose in May with the PCE report rising 4.1% from than a year ago. Partner and Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth LLC Kenny Polcari joins FOX Business' Lydia Hu to discuss what that means for summer spending, plus the rise in popularity of socialism among young voters. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

O mercado dá sinais de fragilidade. Analiso as quedas erráticas no Nasdaq e Bitcoin, o boom de CAPEX em IA que eleva custos de gigantes e a alta alavancagem global. Entenda a apresentação surreal do SoftBank e o grande sinal macro: o Dólar forte contra a queda do Ouro. O mercado está fragilizado?00:00 - Introdução: Algo estranho está acontecendo nos mercados01:29 - O movimento errático da Nasdaq e do Bitcoin02:54 - Inflação americana (PCE) e o aumento de preços da Apple e Microsoft04:26 - Quem realmente ganha com o boom de CAPEX em IA?06:32 - Alavancagem extrema em ETFs e o risco de liquidação07:47 - O FOMO da Inteligência Artificial chega com tudo na Ásia09:57 - SpaceX captando US$ 25 bilhões em dívidas11:09 - SoftBank: Masayoshi Son e a bizarra analogia do ganso dos ovos de ouro16:00 - Planejamento patrimonial com a Liberta17:07 - O grande sinal macro: Dólar forte vs. Correção do Ouro19:34 - Conclusão: Por que o momento exige cautela do investidor#MercadoFinanceiro #InteligenciaArtificial #Bitcoin #Macroeconomia #Investimentos

Markets recalibrate as the Federal Reserve signals a more hawkish stance under new leadership, shifting expectations away from rate cuts and toward potential tightening. Inflation projections moved higher, reinforcing the Fed's focus on price stability and reducing forward guidance as a policy tool. Fixed income markets reacted quickly, with front end yields rising and volatility expected to persist. In equities, leadership continues to broaden beyond mega cap names, with improving participation across sectors supporting a constructive backdrop, though near term consolidation and uneven returns remain likely through the summer. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:40 — Market overview with GDP, PCE and unemployment trends04:05 — FOMC recap and introduction of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh06:20 — Inflation projections rise and policy expectations reset12:30 — Reduced Fed communication and implications for volatility15:00 — Equity market rotation beyond mega cap tech and earnings outlook Additional ResourcesRead Now: Trump Accounts: A New Tool for Building Optionality for ChildrenCheck Out: Key Questions: Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) a “Bubble”? Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

We discuss why the "Fed trade" is back in control of crypto as a stronger dollar and hot PCE inflation push bitcoin below $60K for the first time in nearly two years. We cover why AI and equity earnings keep crowding out speculative crypto demand, and what might finally free up capital for bitcoin. We also discuss how the government's shutdown of Anthropic's Fable model reframes decentralized AI as an "access" story, why Coinbase for Agents makes the AI x crypto thesis more tangible, and how to actually trade bitcoin from here using a variety of powerful indicators.Main sections: (01:05 - 06:21) The return of the Fed trade (06:21 - 20:14) AI, earnings, and the marginal speculative dollar (20:14 - 24:33) Coinbase for Agents and agentic payment rails (24:33 - 37:04) How to trade bitcoin from hereSpeakers: Colin Basco - Quantitative Strategist, Coinbase (X: https://x.com/colin_basco) Austin Arnold - Co-Host of Altcoin Daily (X: https://x.com/AltcoinDaily) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It was a mixed week on Wall Street with technology and inflation in focus. Investors seem more cautious about the AI boom as inflation rose in May with the PCE report rising 4.1% from than a year ago. Partner and Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth LLC Kenny Polcari joins FOX Business' Lydia Hu to discuss what that means for summer spending, plus the rise in popularity of socialism among young voters. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Core inflation rose to 3.4% in May, according to this morning's PCE report out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That's the highest since October 2023. Part of the rise is driven by service sector inflation, which should be more immune to shocks from tariffs and energy costs. We dig in. And later, now that Spirit Airlines has shut down, its bankruptcy estate is auctioning off its access to New York's LaGuardia Airport.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace Morning Report is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Stories featured in this episode:Spirit to auction $80 million in takeoff and landing slots at LGA

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, June 25, describing a mixed but slightly positive market with a growth-to-value rotation as equal-weighted indexes outpaced cap-weighted, rates dipped, and oil rose slightly while Brent returned near pre US-Iran levels; despite one major AI semiconductor earnings beat lifting parts of the space, much of tech was down. He reviews heavy economic releases: May PCE inflation met expectations (0.4% headline, 0.3% core; core PCE 3.4% YoY), Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, jobless claims beat expectations, durable goods fell as expected, and personal income and consumer spending exceeded forecasts, with five of six items better than expected. He highlights dividend growth using a 2000 S&P 500 example where a 1.2% yield grew to about 5.5% cash-on-cash over 26 years, and discusses private credit redemption gates, diversification, and software-sector stress as a key risk versus a systemic collapse. 00:00 Market Snapshot 01:03 Economic Data Rundown 02:36 Value Rotation Drivers 02:45 Dividend Growth Power 04:36 Ask TPG Private Credit 05:11 Run on Bank Explained 06:49 Wrap Up and Weekend Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Core inflation rose to 3.4% in May, according to this morning's PCE report out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That's the highest since October 2023. Part of the rise is driven by service sector inflation, which should be more immune to shocks from tariffs and energy costs. We dig in. And later, now that Spirit Airlines has shut down, its bankruptcy estate is auctioning off its access to New York's LaGuardia Airport.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace Morning Report is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Stories featured in this episode:Spirit to auction $80 million in takeoff and landing slots at LGA

Plus: Investors await today's PCE number - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. And a new bipartisan coalition aimed at readying the American workforce for major AI-driven disruption is launching today. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Micron's blowout quarter with revenue up 346% to $41.5 billion, 84.9% gross margin, and DRAM/NAND supply now constrained through 2027, the implications of doubling CapEx to $40-50 billion in FY27, Trump's $88 billion supplemental spending request for the Iran war, farmer aid, and Ebola, the canceled signing of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, escalating Senate Republican tensions over Iran, the DOJ's egg price-fixing settlement with Cal-Maine, the narrowing K-shaped economy spending gap, today's PCE inflation print, and rates finally moving as oil drops below $70.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Solid earnings and guidance from chip giant Micron initially sent its shares up sharply, while Wall Street awaits PCE price data this morning. Banks passed the Fed's stress test. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The {securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. For illustrative purpose(s) only. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please seeschwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0130-0626) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Paisley Nardini and Jeff Klingelhofer break down the latest inflation data, noting that while overall pressures have eased, services and AI-related costs remain sticky. They highlight core PCE rising to 3.4% in May, keeping the Fed cautious despite a strong labor market. While a near-term rate hike looks unlikely, they say persistent inflation could shape policy further out.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Marley Kayden breaks down the latest PCE inflation data and what it means for investors. Sam Vadas recaps a volatile session, with stocks opening higher before the Nasdaq reversed lower, and highlights the key themes and market movers driving the action.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

En el episodio de hoy Valentina Orduz y Juan Manuel de los Reyes analizan uno de los reportes más esperados de Micron Technology, que superaron ampliamente las expectativas y enviaron la acción más de un 13% al alza en after hours. También hicieron un recorrido por el sector de semiconductores, que ha vivido un año de contrastes. Además, revisaron los datos macroeconómicos del PCE y el GDP, dos indicadores clave para entender hacia dónde se dirige la economía estadounidense.

En Capital Intereconomía repasamos las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa en una jornada marcada por el impulso del sector tecnológico y la atención de los inversores a las próximas referencias macroeconómicas en Estados Unidos. Las bolsas asiáticas registran importantes avances gracias al fuerte comportamiento de las compañías tecnológicas, con el Kospi surcoreano liderando las subidas impulsado por SK Hynix. En Wall Street, Micron y Qualcomm destacan en las operaciones fuera de mercado tras presentar resultados, mientras el foco de los inversores también se dirige hacia el sector de la defensa. En Europa, los principales índices arrancan la sesión con escasos movimientos pese al buen tono mostrado por el sector tecnológico estadounidense. En el primer análisis de la mañana hablamos con Araceli de Frutos, asesora del fondo Alhaja Inversiones FI, para analizar las perspectivas de los mercados y el protagonismo que sigue teniendo la inteligencia artificial como motor del crecimiento tecnológico. También abordamos qué segmentos del sector presentan mayor potencial, la evolución de las compañías de defensa en un contexto de mayores exigencias en valoración e inversión, las expectativas ante la publicación del deflactor PCE en Estados Unidos y las implicaciones del fortalecimiento del dólar y la debilidad del euro. Además, analizamos las perspectivas para la banca y los sectores más cíclicos de la economía. En el ámbito internacional, conversamos con Mario Fernando Pérez Melero, director de Inteligencia Geopolítica, para analizar el estado de emergencia declarado en Venezuela tras los terremotos registrados en el país, las tensiones entre Estados Unidos y los países del Golfo a raíz del conflicto con Irán, el endurecimiento del discurso de Rusia hacia Occidente y la delicada situación financiera de Venezuela, que afronta una deuda récord.

In Episode 193 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, talk about the passing of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and what his 18-year tenure actually produced for markets.Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as chair featured a statement that clocked in at roughly 130 words and told markets almost nothing about how the new Fed intends to make decisions.Sonu makes the case that despite all the hawkish headlines, dot plot drama, and a two-year yield that jumped 16 basis points on Fed day (the largest single-day move on a Fed decision since 2008), actual real policy rates are more accommodative now than they were in March. The committee is split 9-9 on whether to hike this year, Warsh has opted out of the dot plot entirely, and inflation is running well above target, with core PCE likely to finish the year above 3.3%.Apple's announcement that iPhone prices are going up due to memory chip shortages puts a real-world face on the inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized. Meanwhile the Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday, which is the market's own vote on whether any of this is a crisis. The episode closes with a look at sector leadership, why communication services being down 6% to 7% year-to-date while tech is up 33% is genuinely strange, and why momentum breaking down is the signal to potentially worry about and why it isn't breaking down yet.Key Takeaways: Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan oversaw a 190% gain in the S&P 500 over 18 years, second only to William McChesney Martin. He also presided over two bubbles that burst within a decade, the tech crash, and the housing collapse, producing what remains the worst decade for equity investors in history.Kevin Warsh's first Fed statement came in at roughly 130 words, the shortest non-emergency statement in modern Fed history. He also declined to submit a dot plot projection. The practical effect is that markets are now pricing guidance from the other 18 members, who are not stepping back from the spotlight.The dot plot went 9-9 on whether to hike in 2026. Three months ago, 12 of 19 members expected at least one cut this year. That shift may explain the volatility. 428 S&P 500 stocks fell on Fed day, the broadest single-day decline of the year, but it does not automatically mean the Fed is hawkish.After subtracting the Fed's own inflation projections from its own rate projections, real policy rates are actually more accommodative now than in March, dropping from an implied 0.7% real rate to 0.5%. With core PCE running around 3.5% to 3.8% annualized, the real policy rate is effectively near zero.Apple's decision to raise iPhone prices due to memory chip shortages is the real-world confirmation of a broadening inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized.The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday. The NYSE advance-decline line and the small cap advance-decline line both hit all-time highs the prior Tuesday.Jump to:0:00 — World Cup Weekend and Father's Day3:07 — Remembering Alan Greenspan's Fed8:05 — A New Chair and a Short Statement13:25 — Dot Plot Split and Market Shock19:45 — Yield Curve Signals and Bond Surprise24:35 — AI Supply Chains and Price Pressure28:20 — The Case for a Dovish Fed34:40 — Economy Strength and Running It Hot37:10 — A Car Break in Reality Check40:35 — Breadth Seasonality and Sector Rotation53:20 — Closing Thoughts and Listener RequestsConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Earnings from memory maker Micron Technology are in the spotlight today amid a tech sell-off, but investors will also be looking ahead to PCE data after a hawkish Fed meeting. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The {securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. For illustrative purpose(s) only. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please seeschwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0130-0626) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In today's episode, Kip takes a deep dive into a truly unusual day in the financial markets. From action in our major indexes to fears of inflation's return, Kip will break down the counterintuitive moves we're seeing across asset classes. Plus, don't miss Kip's thoughts on oil's future, the “three amigos” guiding monetary policy, and what to watch in tomorrow's PCE inflation data.

Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says the stock market right now is "technology against the world," and he expects that it will turn and correct, but he's not willing to put his portfolio on the line and move early, because it would put him in the path of a speeding "freight train." de Kempenaer says he can "hear what the bears are saying," and doesn't necessarily disagree with them, but he says he needs to see more signs of weakness -- like the market starting to favor defensive sectors even as it is rising -- to suggest that a downturn is near. Yalena Maleyev, senior economist at KPMG Economics – a member of the Outlook Survey Committee for the National Association for Business Economics – discusses the June 2026 NABE Outlook Survey, released today, which had the economists calling for lower and slower economic growth, higher inflation and a longer time before the Federal Reserve eases interest rates. The median expectation for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose to 3.6% for the fourth quarter. Despite those worrisome economic numbers, nearly two-thirds of the economists surveyed expect that the U.S. can forestall a recession until 2028 or later. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses Kevin Warsh's debut as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, which included a hawkish stance, no dot plot or forecasting help, and a terse public statement. He also discusses the news that Charles Schwab Corp. is planning to enter prediction markets, which he says could speed up both public acceptance and regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, and he gives his take on why the housing affordability problem is worse right now than it generally gets credit for. Plus, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts the State Street S&P Kensho Final Frontiers ETF in the Danger Zone, noting that while the fund gets a five-star rating from Morningstar, it is filled with stocks "that are losing money hand over fist, all going after a very trendy topic ... which is hard to quantify," a condition that he says reminds him of the Internet bubble days.

週一天下零時差關注以下財經大事： 一、輝達本週舉行股東會，股價續漲關鍵是什麼？ 二、企業喊缺工、畢業生找工作，台灣5月失業率會有變化嗎？ 三、沃許時代首份PCE數據登場，市場為何特別重視？ 文：蔡娪嫣 製作團隊：錢玉紘、鄭子鴻 ＊閱讀零時差，點這看全文

RenMac breaks down new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting — the most hawkish FOMC outcome on record by the move in the two-year yield — why falling oil won't pull the Fed off its tightening bias, and how rate hikes are now on the table as soon as July. The team also discusses the fragile Iran settlement, a firmer dollar, the Defense Production Act's reach into non-defense names, US-versus-ex-US equity leadership, and the week ahead in core PCE, Micron, and Fed speakers.

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, gives Kevin Warsh a 9 out of 10 on his first FOMC meeting and press conference, saying "it sounds like he's fed up too" after witnessing a dramatic departure from Powell's approach. Warsh delivered a remarkably short statement (140 words vs Powell's 341 words), removed the dot plot entirely ("show don't tell"), eliminated forward guidance, and created five task forces including communications overhaul, data exploration, and inflationary frameworks review. Danielle was thrilled he's revisiting the arbitrary 2% inflation target, moving away from core PCE (which she calls "a bunch of BS" because stock market gains inflate the metric), and exploring trim mean inflation instead. Warsh went to a grocery store asking people if Fed policy actually helps with gas, beef, and egg prices—demonstrating he understands Fed policy cannot address supply-driven inflation. He called non-farm payroll data "echoes of history" and demanded accountability, slamming the NBER for being "derelict in their duty" to call recessions when bankruptcy filings are up 38% year-over-year and personal bankruptcies surged 8%. Danielle warns the market is "calling his bluff" after today's sell-off, notes no junk bonds have been sold in 41 days signaling credit stress, and says to watch the MOVE index and credit spreads closely as the next tell. She's cautiously optimistic but "wait and see," drawing comparisons to Powell's 2018 pivot when he reversed course after market pain. Warsh managed a unanimous vote despite the aggressive reform agenda.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. https://www.kalshi.com/julia Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth 1:37 Statement very short - 140 words vs Powell's 341, "fed up too"2:14 No forward guidance, removed dot plot - "show don't tell"3:13 Warsh strategic approach - "I'm going to fix this broken institution"5:20 Five task forces including communications and inflationary frameworks7:48 Revisit 2% inflation target - Arbitrary and unnecessary14:10 Rate cuts - most traders on Kalshi expect zero16:57 Markets lower today, Wall Street calling his bluff17:51 Bankruptcies up 38.4% year over year, personal up 8%19:00 NBER derelict in recession calling - Should have called 202524:43 Non-farm payroll data unreliable until third revision - "echoes of history"26:09 Financial markets work best reacting to real data, not Fed speak27:20 Overall impression 9 out of 10, cautiously optimistic29:15 Watch MOVE index and credit spreads for next signal30:00 Warsh got unanimous vote - Corralled all governors

With Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve chair behind him, the discourse can move to what it signals for monetary policy. Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong joins Ira Jersey on this edition of Macro Matters and argues that while Warsh avoided explicit forward guidance, his emphasis was on price stability, skepticism toward forecast precision and support for a shorter policy statement all point to a more hawkish lean than many investors expected.  They discuss whether Warsh is pushing the Fed back toward a more Greenspan-like communication style, why she believes the dot plot could eventually disappear in favor of broader forecast ranges, and how task forces on the balance sheet, inflation and data reliability could shape future policy debates. They also examine the outlook for inflation and the labor market, why Wong sees a rate hike this year as a mistake given her expectation for headline and core PCE to fall back toward target, and how Bloomberg Intelligence views current SOFR futures pricing as internally inconsistent. The episode closes with a discussion of the global backdrop, including softer oil prices, tighter policy abroad and the implications for the dollar and the US disinflation outlook. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Last Wednesday's CPI report, while not a surprise, still showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% - higher than in any month since April, 2023. For investors, this raises a number of questions. First, is this the peak for U.S. inflation and, if it is, how fast will inflation fall from here? Second, are we looking at the right inflation rate, anyway, given differences between CPI and PCE deflators, headline and core measures and the new Fed Chairman's preference for trimmed mean and median readings?

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets explains our differentiated view of a potential benign outlook for inflation, despite the recent acceleration.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Today, why is everything still so expensive?It's Thursday, June 11th at 2pm in London.The Federal Reserve has a so-called dual mandate, tasked with keeping the labor market healthy and prices stable. It is currently having much more success with the former than the latter.Let's start with that good news.Last Friday saw solid data from the U.S. jobs market, reducing some of the fears from earlier this year that artificial intelligence and other factors would lead companies to make do with fewer workers. The U.S. unemployment rate sits at just 4.3 percent, a historically low level. Measures like initial jobless claims indicate no large uptick in firings.Yet the success within the U.S. labor market is mirrored by struggles with inflation. The Fed tries to keep inflation, the annual increase in a broad set of prices, to about 2 percent per year. Their preferred measure of these prices, so-called PCE inflation, well, it's been materially above this target over the last three months, six months, twelve months, and indeed, the last five years.As for another key measure of inflation that was reported yesterday, CPI, overall prices increased more than 4 percent. While that was close to expectations, it still represents prices that are rising much faster than the Fed would prefer.This leads to a dilemma. One diagnosis of what's going on is that elevated inflation is a sign that conditions are simply too loose and too accommodative at these levels of interest rates. Corporate capital expenditure and merger activity is surging, regulation is being eased, and the U.S. government is spending a lot more than it's taking in. All of these are consistent with a hot economic cycle, which in the past would've warranted higher interest rates to bring the economy back down to a more sustainable speed.But it might not be that simple.The surging spend that we're seeing on AI data centers feels pretty unique and almost insensitive to other dynamics. Indeed, we've seen a 700 percent increase in the price of memory over the last year. Yet it's done little to slow demand for this construction as the large, well-capitalized companies behind the AI buildout see it as so essential to their future success.U.S. consumers are also still spending, boosted perhaps by record levels of household wealth. As just one example of this, my colleagues in Equity Research note that the price of airline tickets has gone up 25 percent over the last year, yet there's been no sign of people flying less.Now, the positive story would be that while there are some high-profile categories like computer memory or airfare that are seeing these large price increases, the broader inflation picture is actually set to get better as the year goes on, and costs for things like housing and tariff-impacted goods moderate. That is our view at Morgan Stanley, where our economists think that inflation will ultimately be lower over the next twelve months – and lower than many in the market expect.But there's definitely uncertainty.This month, June, is one where central banks may appear to have a renewed commitment towards inflationary pressures; with the ECB hiking rates today and our expectation that the Bank of Japan will hike rates next week, while the Fed will remove their easing bias. And our more benign economic base case for inflation does assume that oil will start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz pretty soon. It may not, and that could also lead to more sustained inflationary pressure.The big story on inflation has not gone away. Our assumption that pressures could ease in the second half of the year is a key and differentiated input to our forecast for lower bond yields and higher stock prices in 12 months' time. But it does rely on a change of the status quo.As of now, inflation is still too high.Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, tell a friend or colleague about us today.

The Federal Reserve has long relied on the PCE as its preferred measure of inflation. But there's another inflation yardstick known as the trimmed mean, which tries to smooth out big inflation bumps. Last week, the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean came in at 2.3% — lower than the PCE and much closer to the Fed's 2% target. What accounts for the difference, and why does it matter? Then, we hear how 48 "base camp" venues are preparing to host World Cup athletes.

The Federal Reserve has long relied on the PCE as its preferred measure of inflation. But there's another inflation yardstick known as the trimmed mean, which tries to smooth out big inflation bumps. Last week, the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean came in at 2.3% — lower than the PCE and much closer to the Fed's 2% target. What accounts for the difference, and why does it matter? Then, we hear how 48 "base camp" venues are preparing to host World Cup athletes.

A new ceasefire and 60-day extension! PCE numbers are out – somehow inflation cooling. More government handouts – stocks rally in the news. This week’s guest: Wesley Gray – Founder, Alpha Architect.   NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE’S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Wes Gray – After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago where he studied under Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama. Next, Wes took an academic job in his wife's hometown of Philadelphia and worked as a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray's interest in bridging the research gap between academia and industry led him to found Alpha Architect, an asset management firm dedicated to an impact mission of empowering investors through education. He is a contributor to multiple industry publications and regularly speaks to professional investor groups across the country. Wes has published multiple academic papers and four books, including Embedded (Naval Institute Press, 2009), Quantitative Value (Wiley, 2012), DIY Financial Advisor (Wiley, 2015), and Quantitative Momentum (Wiley, 2016). Dr. Gray currently resides in Palmas Del Mar. Puerto Rico with his wife and three children. Follow @alphaarchitect Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SPY), (RKLB), (DELL), (INTC)

PODCAST LAS NOTICIAS CON CALLE DE 29 DE MAYO -   La UPR presenta un nuevo presupuesto - El Vocero Piden a pensionados de la AEE que tengan cuenta de banco en PR porque han tenido problemas con bancos de fuera - El Vocero Pelea por fondos de FEMA entre Cor3 y la industria local por plantear traer empresas de fuera - El Nuevo Día No hubo conducta anti ética dice Ferraiuoli - El Nuevo Día 15 candidatos para dirigir DDEC, sector privado en La Fortaleza, Lefranc Fortuño interino no se va a quedar como jefe - El Nuevo Día Van pal Tribunal para saber los casos que Justicia cerró sin investigar por meramente haber pasado el tiempo - El Vocero El nuevo Hilton Garden Inn va porque la demanda para detenerlo se presentó muy tarde - El Nuevo Día 57% de los boricuas en Florida rechazan a Trump - El Nuevo Día Cuelgan medida por la eutanasia en el Senado - El Nuevo Día Explota cohete espacial de Amazon, Elon Musk gana en ruta al espacio - CNBCBoricuas no pueden comprar casa - Metro Nadie quiere que se quede LeFranc Fortuño - El Vocero TMobile lanza live translación para conversaciones telefónicas en tiempo real - El Vocero Impresionante logro de WKAQ - El Vocero La gente no puede comprar casa en PR - Metro Piden más empleados para aeroespacial, pero los que podrían están emigrando - El Vocero Irán y USA logran acuerdo, pero Trump no lo ha aprobado todavía - Bloomberg SpaceX dice que su negocio vale 1.8 trillones - Bloomberg Arabia dice que bajará precio del petróleo, WTI a 87 Drone ruso entra a Rumanía y provoca activación militar de la OTAN- FTCuidadores informales en San Juan recibirán ID para que tengan trato preferente en San Juan - El Nuevo Día Horrible accidente con Cybertruck deja dos muertos y varios heridos - Noticentro Alberta Canadá propone separarse en consulta para la independencia - CNBC#universal #incluyeauspicioLOS DATOS DEL DÍA• Brent: $92.10/barril• Diésel wholesale (No.2): $3.69/galón• S&P 500: –0.02% (Nasdaq nuevo récord)• Dow Jones: –0.63%• Bono 10Y Tesoro: 4.502%• EUR/USD: $1.164• Gas natural (Henry Hub): $3.27/MMBtu• Tasa hipotecaria 30Y: 6.59%• PCE abril: +0.4% mensual, +3.8% anual (más alto en ~3 años)

In this Dividend Cafe market update, Brian Szytel reviews a rotation day where the Dow rose 182 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flat, with the 10-year yield around 4.48% and Brent crude down nearly 5%, easing inflation and rate expectations amid ongoing US-Iran deal speculation. With little new economic data ahead of a heavier slate tomorrow (including PCE), he compares today's AI-driven enthusiasm to the late 1990s internet boom, noting similar multiple expansion themes and index concentration, but also differences in valuations and how closely recent market returns have tracked earnings growth after the 2022 selloff. He urges vigilance as the bull market matures and argues dividend growers have historically outperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, supporting a “both/and” portfolio that combines dividend growth with reasonable AI exposure. 00:00 Welcome 00:21 Market Snapshot Today 00:55 Quiet Economic Calendar 01:11 Late 90s vs Today 01:59 Valuations and Returns 03:09 Cycle Risks and Vigilance 03:51 WSJ Question on Dividends 04:20 Why Dividend Growers Win 05:39 Both And Portfolio 06:28 Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan discuss an S&P 500 pressing all-time highs amid sticky inflation, a 10-year yield around the mid-4% range, and low near-term volatility despite an upcoming Fed meeting and PCE data. They review mixed retail signals (strength at higher-end brands versus Walmart's margin pressure and a strained lower-end consumer), debate the market's resilience, and focus on AI: Nvidia's explosive growth and concerns that soaring usage-based AI costs could challenge the “sanctity” of big-tech CapEx, alongside critiques of Meta layoffs and skepticism about SaaS firms overpromising AI. Guy then interviews Darrell Crate of Easterly, who outlines structural volatility, demographic-driven retirement needs, and hedged equity demand, argues small caps benefit from innovation, and describes Easterly Government Properties as a mission-critical government-lease REIT with an 8% dividend, no canceled leases, a $1.5B pipeline, and potential tailwinds from government efficiency initiatives and GSA changes. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media