Podcasts about PCE

Last Wednesday's CPI report, while not a surprise, still showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% - higher than in any month since April, 2023. For investors, this raises a number of questions. First, is this the peak for U.S. inflation and, if it is, how fast will inflation fall from here? Second, are we looking at the right inflation rate, anyway, given differences between CPI and PCE deflators, headline and core measures and the new Fed Chairman's preference for trimmed mean and median readings?

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the imminent deal Trump talked up on Saturday seems to have faded, mainly because Israeli attacks on Beirut have undermined the situation. But if there was to be a deal, it is sure to dominate financial markets. In the meantime, war is the standard situation. These same markets are also contending the implications of the wildly successful SpaceX float. It was full of animal spirits, FOMO, and gambling fever, and more than a few observers are seeing this as evidence of a gigantic bubble. After all it values SpaceX at 100 times its current revenues, and the business operates at a loss. At a US$2 tln 'value', to be sustainable it would need to generate after-tax profits of at least 10% or US$200 bln per year. And that is about double what Aramco-plus-Google do now, #1 and #2 combined. In the real world, Thursday will bring the next US Fed policy meeting result, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, Trump's replacement of Jerome Powell. Powell will still have a vote however. Most observers see them holding their key rate at 3.75%. The Fed has an inflation target of 2% for the PCE measure of inflation which is currently running at 3.8% with the CPI running at 4.2%, a three year high, with both rising sharply last time they were released. There will need to be some policy gymnastics to ignore those signals, but they may hope the fuel component reverses soon to save them. That is probably why markets think there will be no change on Thursday. The US Fed won't be the only central bank on action this week. We will get reviews from the Bank of Japan (+25 bps to 1.00% expected), Sweden's Riskbank, Norway's Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the English central bank, even in Brazil. More importantly for us is that we will get the RBA's latest update on Tuesday, where no change from the current 4.35% is expected. And the New Zealand Q1-2026 GDP result will drop this week and it will be a surprise it it isn't a year-on-year growth rate of +1.1%. Of course, this will be very dated data. In fact the RBNZ's own Nowcast suggests GDP will drop -0.2% in Q2-2026 from the prior quarter after rising +0.6% in the March quarter. Markets see a March quarterly rise of +0.9%. In Japan, attention will focus on the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, where it is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1% amid persistent inflation and yen weakness. If delivered, it would mark the first rate increase since December last year and the highest policy rate since 1995. The country is also set to publish trade, inflation, and machinery orders data. In India, producer inflation is projected to rise to 9.1% in May from 8.3% in April, driven by rising energy costs. Other major releases include trade, unemployment, and passenger vehicle sales figures. In China, investors will monitor a series of key economic releases next week, including house prices, industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and their jobless data. After April's surprise decline, China's May new yuan loans resumed their growth in data out over the weekend, up +5.5% from a year ago with a modest +¥520 bln rise, about what was expected (+¥550 bln). Still, at that level it is the weakest May increase in eighteen years, as the usual suspect - the property market - continues to drag on bank lending. Across the Pacific, American consumers felt the cost of living pressure ease slightly in June as petrol prices came back off their recent war highs. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose in early June, up from May's all-time low and a better than expected recovery. It was a modest recovery all the same with improvements seen across all age, education, and political groups. Lower-income consumers, for whom fuel represents a larger share of budgets, showed a particularly strong rebound even if it is still deeply negative and its second lowest of all time. And in Europe, Switzerland had another set of national referendums. One proposal, to cap its population at 10 mln, has been voted down. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +1 bps from Saturday, down -5 bps for the week. The price of gold has recovered a very minor +US$4 from Saturday to US$4222/oz but down -US$102 for the week. Silver is little-changed US$67.50/oz and the same as last week at this time. Oil prices are up +50 USc from Saturday at just under US$85/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$87.50/bbl. A week ago these two prices were US$90.50 and US$93/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits have dried up again. And global oil reserves are draining into uncharted territory. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time Saturday at just on 58.3 USc, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62 which is unchanged from Saturday, up +30 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,655 and down a minor -0.3% from this time Saturday. That is a +5.8% rise from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorriow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Season 6, Episode 17: Welcome back to a new episode of Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week, Dr. Chris Kuehl talks about what's happening in the economy as if we have a clue.ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 6, Episode 17 (8:16 in length), ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl discusses the latest economic data. Is there a lot of positive data that is going on behind the scenes?Is media designed to provide data? Should we consume this information?Media dominating the news cycle - are we missing the most relevant news?Has the oil data been overblown? What is the crucial issue?Are we in an oil glut? What is the concern?What is the REAL issue with the oil sector?Where are we seeing really good data?Is the manufacturing sector soaring?Where are inflation numbers? How is the Fed responding to this data?Where are the PCE numbers? Where are they trending?Where are ASA members in this economic cycle???Is there more to be encouraged by than the obvious negative?Ask Dr. Kuehl a Question!Have a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast or on his monthly ASA members only webinar?Email it to Brianna Dovichi at bdovichi@asa.net

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets explains our differentiated view of a potential benign outlook for inflation, despite the recent acceleration.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Today, why is everything still so expensive?It's Thursday, June 11th at 2pm in London.The Federal Reserve has a so-called dual mandate, tasked with keeping the labor market healthy and prices stable. It is currently having much more success with the former than the latter.Let's start with that good news.Last Friday saw solid data from the U.S. jobs market, reducing some of the fears from earlier this year that artificial intelligence and other factors would lead companies to make do with fewer workers. The U.S. unemployment rate sits at just 4.3 percent, a historically low level. Measures like initial jobless claims indicate no large uptick in firings.Yet the success within the U.S. labor market is mirrored by struggles with inflation. The Fed tries to keep inflation, the annual increase in a broad set of prices, to about 2 percent per year. Their preferred measure of these prices, so-called PCE inflation, well, it's been materially above this target over the last three months, six months, twelve months, and indeed, the last five years.As for another key measure of inflation that was reported yesterday, CPI, overall prices increased more than 4 percent. While that was close to expectations, it still represents prices that are rising much faster than the Fed would prefer.This leads to a dilemma. One diagnosis of what's going on is that elevated inflation is a sign that conditions are simply too loose and too accommodative at these levels of interest rates. Corporate capital expenditure and merger activity is surging, regulation is being eased, and the U.S. government is spending a lot more than it's taking in. All of these are consistent with a hot economic cycle, which in the past would've warranted higher interest rates to bring the economy back down to a more sustainable speed.But it might not be that simple.The surging spend that we're seeing on AI data centers feels pretty unique and almost insensitive to other dynamics. Indeed, we've seen a 700 percent increase in the price of memory over the last year. Yet it's done little to slow demand for this construction as the large, well-capitalized companies behind the AI buildout see it as so essential to their future success.U.S. consumers are also still spending, boosted perhaps by record levels of household wealth. As just one example of this, my colleagues in Equity Research note that the price of airline tickets has gone up 25 percent over the last year, yet there's been no sign of people flying less.Now, the positive story would be that while there are some high-profile categories like computer memory or airfare that are seeing these large price increases, the broader inflation picture is actually set to get better as the year goes on, and costs for things like housing and tariff-impacted goods moderate. That is our view at Morgan Stanley, where our economists think that inflation will ultimately be lower over the next twelve months – and lower than many in the market expect.But there's definitely uncertainty.This month, June, is one where central banks may appear to have a renewed commitment towards inflationary pressures; with the ECB hiking rates today and our expectation that the Bank of Japan will hike rates next week, while the Fed will remove their easing bias. And our more benign economic base case for inflation does assume that oil will start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz pretty soon. It may not, and that could also lead to more sustained inflationary pressure.The big story on inflation has not gone away. Our assumption that pressures could ease in the second half of the year is a key and differentiated input to our forecast for lower bond yields and higher stock prices in 12 months' time. But it does rely on a change of the status quo.As of now, inflation is still too high.Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, tell a friend or colleague about us today.

A new study may help improve cleanup strategies for groundwater and sediment contaminated with persistent chlorinated organic pollutants. Funded by the NIEHS Superfund Research Program, researchers at the University of Maryland Baltimore County used modeling tools to better understand and optimize their cleanup technology that combines pollutant-degrading bacteria with an activated carbon sorbent, called bioaugmented sorbents.

The Federal Reserve has long relied on the PCE as its preferred measure of inflation. But there's another inflation yardstick known as the trimmed mean, which tries to smooth out big inflation bumps. Last week, the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean came in at 2.3% — lower than the PCE and much closer to the Fed's 2% target. What accounts for the difference, and why does it matter? Then, we hear how 48 "base camp" venues are preparing to host World Cup athletes.

The Federal Reserve has long relied on the PCE as its preferred measure of inflation. But there's another inflation yardstick known as the trimmed mean, which tries to smooth out big inflation bumps. Last week, the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean came in at 2.3% — lower than the PCE and much closer to the Fed's 2% target. What accounts for the difference, and why does it matter? Then, we hear how 48 "base camp" venues are preparing to host World Cup athletes.

In this Daily Editorial, we sit down with Dave Erfle, founder and editor of the Junior Miner Junky, to unpack the current divergence in the commodities sector. While copper continues its powerful breakout, the precious metals sector has lulled many investors to sleep despite remarkable corporate health and macro tailwinds. Key Discussion Points: Precious Metals Range-Bound Trading: An overview of gold ($4,500/oz) and silver price action relative to their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and why a technical decision point is rapidly approaching. Stagflationary Economic Drivers: How the latest downwardly revised US GDP data (1.6%) and rising PCE inflation (3.3%) are providing a fundamentally supportive backdrop for hard assets. Unprecedented Corporate Health: A look at the record-breaking Q1 earnings and strong balance sheets of producers like Newmont, contrasting their historically low valuations against an overextended broader stock market. The Speculative Frenzy Absence: Why the lack of a sector-wide bubble in junior equities and multi-year low open interest indicate that the precious metals sector remains completely overlooked. Copper vs. Gold Rotations: Analysis of the strong volume and capital flowing into critical minerals and copper compared to the summer doldrums gripping gold and silver.   Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website to learn more about Dave's investment letter - https://www.juniorminerjunky.com/   --------------------------- For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:  The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/  Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Las 5 grandes incertidumbres que amenazan el rally de las bolsas tras un mayo histórico. SánchezAnálisis de la situación de los mercados financieros e inversión con Isabel Sánchez Burgo, gestora de carteras en Arquiabanca. Balance del rally de las bolsas en el mes de mayo impulsado por el sector tecnológico, las siete magníficas y el auge de la inteligencia artificial. Evaluamos los cinco factores de riesgo clave para los inversores: las presiones de la inflación en la Eurozona y EE. UU. (PCE), las próximas reuniones de política monetaria del BCE y la Reserva Federal (Fed), los riesgos geopolíticos, el precio del petróleo Brent y las valoraciones de las OPV en el mercado tecnológico. Además, estrategias de inversión y asignación de activos en renta fija para perfiles conservadores ante la volatilidad mediante la gestión activa.#rally #mercados #bolsa #petroleo #tecnologia #inversion #finanzas #ia #economia #entrevista #geopolitica #negociostv 

This week, we discuss downward revisions to GDP, persistent inflation and a renewed decline in the savings rate. Real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 was revised down from 2.1% to 1.6%, well below the consensus estimate of 2.2%. Meanwhile, inflation remained uncomfortably high. The PCE price index rose 3.8% from a year earlier, while core PCE increased 3.3%, both still far above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The same report offered little comfort on the consumer. Real disposable personal income fell 0.5%, consumption rose just 0.1%, and the savings rate dropped to its lowest level since the eve of the Global Financial Crisis.

Dedo no Pulso está no ar! Entre os dias 01 e 07 de junho, acompanhe uma análise completa dos movimentos que estão moldando a economia brasileira e internacional, com reflexos diretos no agronegócio. PIB em desaceleração, mercado de trabalho dando sinais de enfraquecimento, inflação pressionada e os impactos da queda do petróleo entram no radar desta semana. Nesta edição, Antônio da Luz analisa os principais indicadores macroeconômicos, os desdobramentos para juros, câmbio e inflação, além dos efeitos práticos sobre custos de produção, commodities e perspectivas para o agro. Uma leitura estratégica para produtores, investidores e profissionais que precisam antecipar cenários e tomar decisões melhores.

A new ceasefire and 60-day extension! PCE numbers are out – somehow inflation cooling. More government handouts – stocks rally in the news. This week’s guest: Wesley Gray – Founder, Alpha Architect.   NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE’S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Wes Gray – After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago where he studied under Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama. Next, Wes took an academic job in his wife's hometown of Philadelphia and worked as a finance professor at Drexel University. Dr. Gray's interest in bridging the research gap between academia and industry led him to found Alpha Architect, an asset management firm dedicated to an impact mission of empowering investors through education. He is a contributor to multiple industry publications and regularly speaks to professional investor groups across the country. Wes has published multiple academic papers and four books, including Embedded (Naval Institute Press, 2009), Quantitative Value (Wiley, 2012), DIY Financial Advisor (Wiley, 2015), and Quantitative Momentum (Wiley, 2016). Dr. Gray currently resides in Palmas Del Mar. Puerto Rico with his wife and three children. Follow @alphaarchitect Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SPY), (RKLB), (DELL), (INTC)

Logic should tell you there may not be much growth left in Nvidia  Investing has become increasingly emotional for many people, and too often investors stop thinking logically. Could the popular company Nvidia continue climbing higher? Of course it could. But there are logical reasons to believe its future growth may be limited compared to what investors expect today.  First, consider the company's market capitalization. As the stock price rises, so does the market cap, which currently sits around $5.2 trillion, depending on the day. To put that number into perspective, $5 trillion is roughly equal to the entire GDP of Japan. With that amount of money, you could buy all the real estate in New York City, London, and Tokyo combined. You could also purchase every major sports franchise in the world several times over.  So investors should ask themselves: if you are buying or holding Nvidia today, are you expecting the company to double in value anytime soon to more than $10 trillion? Does that really seem realistic?  Over the last year, Nvidia generated approximately $216 billion in revenue, which is nearly half the size of the entire U.S. consumer technology industry, estimated at $537 billion in 2025. The company's revenue grew by about 65% year over year. If Nvidia were to repeat that same 65% growth rate in 2026, revenue would increase by roughly $140 billion, bringing total annual sales to around $356 billion.  To understand how massive that growth would be, only about 25 companies in the entire S&P 500 generate more than $140 billion in annual revenue. In other words, Nvidia would need to add more revenue in a single year than 95% of S&P 500 companies produce in total annual sales.  None of this means Nvidia is a bad company. In fact, it is an exceptional company doing extraordinary things. However, wherever enormous profits exist, competition inevitably follows. We are already hearing about major technology companies developing their own AI chips, while startups and rival semiconductor firms continue introducing competing products that could eventually take market share from Nvidia.  Does that mean Nvidia is going to crash? Probably not. Could it happen? Anything is possible in the market. But for long-term investors, the bigger concern may be that future revenue growth simply cannot continue at the pace investors have become accustomed to. If growth slows meaningfully, the stock could experience years of stagnation or disappointing returns. That is the logical case investors should at least consider.     The Consumer Isn't Breaking, it's Quietly Running Out of Cushion  The recent economic data showed that inflation came in line with expectations and much of the shift can likely be attributed to higher energy prices. A bigger concern to keep an eye on is what's happening to household finances underneath the surface.  April core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, came in at 3.3% year-over-year, exactly in line with expectations. This was the highest annual level since November 2023.  At this point, inflation still doesn't appear to be a crisis story. If energy prices can decline, I believe much of the recent increase in inflation would dissipate and we'd head closer to the Fed's 2% target.   While I'd say inflation isn't a major concern currently, the data suggests consumers are increasingly stretched financially.  The clearest warning sign is the savings rate. The U.S. personal savings rate fell to just 2.6%, one of the lowest levels seen outside of the immediate Covid reopening period in 2022. The April reading was down from 3.2% in March and 5.8% a year prior. It also marked the lowest savings rate since June 2022 when it hit 2.2%. For perspective, Americans saved about 5-7% from 2010 to the beginning of 2020.   That gap matters. It suggests consumers are continuing to spend, but they're doing it with far less financial cushion than they historically had. Spending resilience is increasingly being supported by depleted savings, rising debt usage, and retirement account borrowing rather than excess cash reserves.  Fidelity reported that 19.2% of workers now have an outstanding 401(k) loan, up from 18.8% a year ago. Meanwhile, hardship withdrawals across retirement plans continue to rise industrywide. Vanguard recently reported that 6% of account holders took hardship withdrawals in 2025, up from 4.8% the prior year and above pre-pandemic norms.  Retirement accounts are increasingly functioning as emergency liquidity for everyday expenses. Historically, 401(k)s were largely treated as long-term investment vehicles. Now they're becoming a financial backstop for consumers trying to maintain spending in a higher-rate environment.  This data continues to point towards the concerns around the K-shape economy. While debt levels remain in check, increased debt balances or more 401k withdrawals could create more longer-term consequences that we should be aware of.      The most important part of the SpaceX IPO may not be the valuation. It may be the mechanics behind the stock itself.  SpaceX has yet to declare the size of its IPO offering, but it will likely be a single-digit percentage of the company's total shares outstanding. That matters because float, not just valuation, can determines how violently a stock moves in the early months after an IPO. When demand is huge and supply is constrained, prices can disconnect from fundamentals quickly. If institutions, retail investors, and passive index funds are all competing for a tiny number of available shares, scarcity alone can drive a major rally independent of fundamentals. Nasdaq created a rule in May that shortened the waiting period for megacap stocks to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index to 15 trading days, which is down from as long as a year. There's also a proposal to shorten the waiting period for S&P 500 inclusion to six months from 12 months and there's speculation that could be implemented before the SpaceX IPO. If SpaceX is added rapidly to major indexes, passive funds and ETFs may become forced buyers while insiders gradually gain the ability to sell into strength. That creates a setup where institutional demand collides directly with controlled insider supply releases. The result could be extraordinary volatility in both directions.  The lock-up structure may be even more important than the float itself. SpaceX plans to allow certain shareholders to sell portions of their stock before the traditional 180-day lock-up expires. Restrictions usually apply to existing investors, employees, large institutional investors or people with access to privileged information. Under the proposed structure, some insiders could begin selling as early as after the company's first earnings report if performance targets are met. Up to 20% of the restricted shares may be sold shortly after the company releases its second-quarter earnings. Another 10% would be unlocked if the stock trades at least 30% above its IPO price. Additional tranches of 7% each are set to unlock at five intervals between 70 and 135 days after the listing, with a further 28% becoming available after a subsequent earnings report. Any remaining restricted shares would be eligible for sale after 180 days. Elon Musk, who holds 85.1% of the voting power and 12.3%  of the economic interest in Class A shares, agreed to a 366-day restriction.  Historically, unlock events have often been brutal. The Facebook IPO is probably the clearest example. Facebook had an IPO of $38 in May 2012 during one of the most hyped tech IPOs ever. Within three months, the stock had already fallen sharply, but the real pressure came from the lock-up expirations. In August 2012, Facebook's first major lock-up expiration released 270 million additional shares into the market increasing the publicly tradable share count by roughly 60%. The stock fell more than 6% that day and closed below $20, almost 48% below its IPO price. Interestingly, your returns in Meta/Facebook have been great and investors who bought the stock after its first day of trading are up close to 1,500%, but investors that bought six months later are up close to 2,500%.  Facebook isn't the only example. In fact, generally IPOs fizzle out shortly after the hype fades. Jay Ritter, a University of Florida professor, point out the 1,724 U.S. IPOs from 2011 through 2024 had an average first-day pop of 23%, but over the next three years, these stocks lagged behind the market by 25 percentage points. The trend is even more troubling for stocks that trade with a high premium. Since 1980, issuers with trailing annual sales of at least $100 million and a price-to-sales ratio above 40 have seen an average three-year drop of 45% from their first day's close.  The psychology behind lock-ups is simple. During the first few months after an IPO, the market is dealing with artificial scarcity. The available supply of stock is intentionally constrained while excitement and media attention are elevated. Once insiders are allowed to sell, the supply-demand balance changes immediately. What makes SpaceX interesting is that management appears to be trying to avoid a single catastrophic unlock day by spreading the selling pressure over time. In theory, that could reduce the probability of a massive one-day collapse like Facebook experienced. But it may also create a different environment where insider selling becomes a continuous overhang rather than one clean reset event.  The lesson from previous IPO cycles is that the first trade and the long-term investment outcome are rarely the same thing. Stocks with tiny floats and massive narratives can become detached from fundamentals very quickly. Eventually supply catches up.     Financial Planning: Match or Max Your 401(k)  Many people have heard the advice to contribute enough to their 401(k) to receive the company match, but stopping there can mean leaving one of the most powerful wealth-building tools underutilized. A 401(k) allows investments to grow tax-deferred or tax-free with traditional and Roth contributions, which can significantly improve long-term after-tax returns compared to other investment options. Critics often argue that 401(k) plans have failed to replace traditional pensions, but in many cases the problem is not the structure of the 401(k) itself, it is that people simply have not contributed enough or invested appropriately over time. Not everyone is going to become a real estate mogul, successful entrepreneur, or business owner, and that is perfectly okay. The 401(k) was designed to allow ordinary workers to build extraordinary retirement security through disciplined saving and investing over decades. With consistent contributions, proper investment allocation, and time, a well-funded 401(k) can generate retirement income that exceeds many traditional pension plans while also providing greater flexibility and ownership of the assets.     Companies Discussed: The Home Depot, Inc. (HD), Intuit Inc. (INTU), Ferrari N.V. (RACE) & MGM Resorts International (MGM) 

PODCAST LAS NOTICIAS CON CALLE DE 29 DE MAYO -   La UPR presenta un nuevo presupuesto - El Vocero Piden a pensionados de la AEE que tengan cuenta de banco en PR porque han tenido problemas con bancos de fuera - El Vocero Pelea por fondos de FEMA entre Cor3 y la industria local por plantear traer empresas de fuera - El Nuevo Día No hubo conducta anti ética dice Ferraiuoli - El Nuevo Día 15 candidatos para dirigir DDEC, sector privado en La Fortaleza, Lefranc Fortuño interino no se va a quedar como jefe - El Nuevo Día Van pal Tribunal para saber los casos que Justicia cerró sin investigar por meramente haber pasado el tiempo - El Vocero El nuevo Hilton Garden Inn va porque la demanda para detenerlo se presentó muy tarde - El Nuevo Día 57% de los boricuas en Florida rechazan a Trump - El Nuevo Día Cuelgan medida por la eutanasia en el Senado - El Nuevo Día Explota cohete espacial de Amazon, Elon Musk gana en ruta al espacio - CNBCBoricuas no pueden comprar casa - Metro Nadie quiere que se quede LeFranc Fortuño - El Vocero TMobile lanza live translación para conversaciones telefónicas en tiempo real - El Vocero Impresionante logro de WKAQ - El Vocero La gente no puede comprar casa en PR - Metro Piden más empleados para aeroespacial, pero los que podrían están emigrando - El Vocero Irán y USA logran acuerdo, pero Trump no lo ha aprobado todavía - Bloomberg SpaceX dice que su negocio vale 1.8 trillones - Bloomberg Arabia dice que bajará precio del petróleo, WTI a 87 Drone ruso entra a Rumanía y provoca activación militar de la OTAN- FTCuidadores informales en San Juan recibirán ID para que tengan trato preferente en San Juan - El Nuevo Día Horrible accidente con Cybertruck deja dos muertos y varios heridos - Noticentro Alberta Canadá propone separarse en consulta para la independencia - CNBC#universal #incluyeauspicioLOS DATOS DEL DÍA• Brent: $92.10/barril• Diésel wholesale (No.2): $3.69/galón• S&P 500: –0.02% (Nasdaq nuevo récord)• Dow Jones: –0.63%• Bono 10Y Tesoro: 4.502%• EUR/USD: $1.164• Gas natural (Henry Hub): $3.27/MMBtu• Tasa hipotecaria 30Y: 6.59%• PCE abril: +0.4% mensual, +3.8% anual (más alto en ~3 años)

All three major U.S. stock indices closed at fresh record highs on May 28, the same day inline core PCE inflation data met consensus expectations AND multiple White House sources reported a new, tentative 60-day Iran War cease fire. ~This episode is sponsored by Uphold~ Uphold Staking ➜ https://bit.ly/UpholdXRPCard Guest: Evan Aldo Evan Aldo Youtube Channel ➜ https://bit.ly/EvanAldo 20% off Evan Aldo Course ➜ https://bit.ly/EvanCourse ➜  Use code "paulbarron" 00:10 Sponsor: Uphold 00:50 Tom Lee: 3 phase market 02:00 Rate hike odds 03:00 Iran Deal Done? 04:45 Bitcoin analysis 06:15 CNBC: 100bps incoming 08:40 CLARITY bill 2030? 10:00 Joseph Chalom: ETH burn thesis is just staring 11:15 Ethereum analysis 13:50 SpaceX IPO 15:00 Tevis: SpaceX pump is deliberate 16:20 TESLA buy? 17:30 MSTR: buy, hold or sell? 19:00 HYPE trend 21:20 Perps supercycle on SOL #Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum ~Massive Rate Hike?

Markets are navigating a complex mix of persistent inflation, steady growth, and evolving Fed leadership. Recent data shows elevated PCE inflation alongside a modest GDP revision, keeping policy expectations fluid. While rate cuts appear unlikely in the near term, the possibility of tighter policy remains on the table. Equity markets continue to reach new highs, though leadership has narrowed, raising questions about sustainability. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments and energy prices remain key inputs for investors assessing risk, positioning, and the durability of the current market backdrop. Continue the conversation at our upcoming Key Wealth National Call: 2026 Mid-Year CIO Update on June 9, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:40 — Memorial Day recap and market setup for the week03:05 — FOMC minutes and shift away from easing bias05:00 — PCE inflation and GDP revision overview09:30 — Fed outlook and rate path uncertainties14:30 — Narrow equity leadership and market concentration risks Additional ResourcesRegister Now: Key Wealth National Call: 2026 Mid-Year CIO UpdateRead: The ABCs of 529 Plans Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

Ignacio Vacchiano, country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares, analiza los índices en Wall Street, que marcan triple récord, la tecnología, que también está en máximos gracias a las grandes subidas de Snowflake y Dell y como Anthropic ha superado por primera vez en valoración a Open AI. “El mercado está mirando al lado geopolítico y está ignorando el dato de PCE”, afirma el invitado. La jornada de ayer estuvo marcada también por el dato de inflación de abril, que se dispara hasta el 3,8%. Es el mayor aumento desde mayo de 2023. “Yo creo que es un dato negativo, aunque fuera un poco en lo estimado y como que el mercado prevé o piensa que se va a parar en estos niveles y se soluciona el conflicto”, afirma el invitado. También destaca en after hours la subida del 40% en el after hours de Dell, después de publicar cuentas al cierre. Sus resultados superan las expectativas, sobre todo sus ingresos vinculados a la IA, que superan los 16.000 millones y suponen un crecimiento del 757% interanual. Además, supera previsiones con sus ingresos de 44.000 millones y su beneficio por acción de 4,86 dólares. El country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares señala que “para todo el año ingresos daba un 16% más que los estimados medios, pero eso ha subido a un 40%” y que la subida “es exagerada cuando ya el valor había venido subiendo un 180% en los últimos 12 meses”. El foco también ha ido para Anthropic, que ha superado por primera vez en valoración a Open AI. Ha cerrado una ronda de financiación de 65.000 millones de dólares liderada por grandes fondos como Sequoia, Altimeter o Dragoneer. La operación eleva la valoración de Anthropic hasta los 965.000 millones de dólares. Sobre las salidas a Bolsa de estas tecnológicas señala que “puede hacer explotar el globo como pasó en el año 2000”.

En Capital Intereconomía, la Tertulia Capital analiza los grandes temas económicos, empresariales y políticos de la actualidad junto a David Henche, profesor de Estrategia en ICEMD/ESIC; José Luis Fernández Santillana, director de Estudios de USO y presidente de CEOMA; y Fernando Gómez-Calcerrada, abogado del despacho RLD. Entre los asuntos destacados, el espectacular ascenso de Anthropic, que ya roza el billón de dólares de valoración y supera a OpenAI en una nueva muestra del auge de la inteligencia artificial. También se analiza la multa impuesta por la Comisión Europea a Temu por la comercialización de productos ilegales, así como el aumento de la presión política sobre Pedro Sánchez tras solicitar comparecer ante el Congreso. En la Entrevista Capital, Mariano Valderrama Baca, responsable de análisis macro de Intermoney, analiza las claves del dato de inflación PCE conocido en Estados Unidos y las referencias de inflación que se publican hoy en España y Alemania. La conversación gira en torno a si estos datos respaldarán a quienes defienden una nueva subida de tipos por parte del Banco Central Europeo, las perspectivas para la reunión de junio y el difícil equilibrio entre control de la inflación y crecimiento económico. También se aborda la próxima salida de Luis de Guindos y el legado que deja en la institución. La jornada se completa con el análisis de preapertura de las bolsas europeas junto a Jesús Sánchez Quiñones, director general de Renta 4 Banco.

Welcome back. A lot happened. Let's get into it.NIO ES9 deliveries kicked off yesterday — one day early.NIO hired NBA legend Yao Ming as Chief Experience Officer.The stock surged 9.3% in the US and 10.45% in Hong Kong.The higher-priced Executive Signature Edition and HorizonSpecial Edition trims are selling far above managementexpectations — a margin story that flows directly intoQ2 revenue per unit.NIO Q1 2026: Revenue $3.7 billion — up 123% year over year.Deliveries 83,465 — up 98.3%. Vehicle margin 18.8% — fourthconsecutive quarterly improvement. Net loss narrowed to 332million yuan from 6.75 billion yuan a year ago. Q2 guidance:110,000-115,000 deliveries. Bank of America doubled its stake.Morgan Stanley and Bernstein both upgraded.Xpeng Q1 2026: Revenue $1.89 billion — down 17.6% year overyear. Deliveries 62,682 — down 33.3%. Gross margin 20.6%.Same market. Same quarter. Two completely different storiesabout brand positioning and where each company sits in theChinese EV landscape.Ferrari unveiled the Luce on May 25th — their first fullyelectric production car, designed with Jony Ive, priced at$645,000. Italy's deputy prime minister said it doesn't looklike a Ferrari. The Chinese internet compared it to a NissanLeaf. Ferrari's stock dropped 8% on launch day. China'sluxury EV market — NIO ET9 at 818K yuan, Maextro S800 at1 million yuan — doesn't need Ferrari's validation. It'salready here and already won.PCE inflation hit 3.8% for April — highest in nearly threeyears. And Wall Street is quietly profiting from the samewar it publicly says it wants to end. The financial incentiveskeeping Hormuz closed are enormous. Follow the money.

In this episode of WealthVest: The Weekly Bull&Bear, Drew and Tim discuss updates on the Iran war, PCE, dueling consumer confidence surveys, and Goldman Sachs's S&P price target. WealthVest is a leading wholesaler of fixed, fixed-indexed, and registered index-linked annuities to financial professionals. We're a partner to thousands of advisors by providing annuity planning technology, retirement income planning, practice management, market and industry trends, and annuity case management. Our team of dedicated wholesalers and annuity case managers helps advisors provide the best annuity outcomes.Hosts: Drew Dokken, Tim PierottiAlbum Artwork: Matt LueckShow Editing and Production: Matt LueckDisclosure: The information covered and posted represents the views and opinions of the hosts and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of WealthVest. The mere appearance of Content on the Site does not constitute an endorsement by WealthVest. The Content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only. WealthVest does not make any representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability, fitness, or completeness of the Content.WealthVest does not warrant the performance, effectiveness or applicability of any sites listed or linked to in any Content. The content is not intended to be a substitute for professional investing advice. Always seek the advice of your financial advisor or other qualified financial service provider with any questions you may have regarding your investment planning. Investment and investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

New home sales slid and core PCE came in-line with expectations Thursday morning, though the latter metric remains higher than expected compared to recent months. Kevin Green explains how all the economic data plays into consumer and stock market health. On international movers, KG highlights the lasting impacts the U.S.-Iran War has on crude oil as futures move above $90 once again. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros con ligera presión antes del PCE, con el crudo repuntando por nuevos incidentes en Ormuz y la narrativa volviendo a energía, tasas y Fed. $SNOW se dispara tras cerrar un acuerdo a cinco años con AWS para asegurar acceso a Graviton, una señal de “capacidad garantizada” en plena explosión de demanda por AI. Drones se recalientan por el plan “Drone Dominance” y $CVS decide volver a cubrir Zepbound de $LLY en parte de sus listas, subiendo la competencia frente a $NVO.

In this Dividend Cafe market update, Brian Szytel reviews a rotation day where the Dow rose 182 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flat, with the 10-year yield around 4.48% and Brent crude down nearly 5%, easing inflation and rate expectations amid ongoing US-Iran deal speculation. With little new economic data ahead of a heavier slate tomorrow (including PCE), he compares today's AI-driven enthusiasm to the late 1990s internet boom, noting similar multiple expansion themes and index concentration, but also differences in valuations and how closely recent market returns have tracked earnings growth after the 2022 selloff. He urges vigilance as the bull market matures and argues dividend growers have historically outperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, supporting a “both/and” portfolio that combines dividend growth with reasonable AI exposure. 00:00 Welcome 00:21 Market Snapshot Today 00:55 Quiet Economic Calendar 01:11 Late 90s vs Today 01:59 Valuations and Returns 03:09 Cycle Risks and Vigilance 03:51 WSJ Question on Dividends 04:20 Why Dividend Growers Win 05:39 Both And Portfolio 06:28 Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

En Capital Intereconomía seguimos la apertura del Ibex 35 y del resto de bolsas europeas en una sesión marcada por la política monetaria, la energía y la inteligencia artificial. En el análisis de mercados, David Cortina, responsable de renta variable de Santander Private Banking, analiza el comportamiento de compañías como Naturgy, beneficiada por la subida del gas derivada de la tensión con Irán y por la salida de CVC de su accionariado, aunque persisten dudas sobre la estrategia de crecimiento inorgánico y el futuro del management. También pone el foco en el sector tecnológico y en la necesidad de seleccionar cuidadosamente los ganadores de la revolución de la IA, diferenciando entre fabricantes de hardware y compañías de software. Destaca además el papel de SK hynix como proveedor clave de memoria avanzada para NVIDIA en plena escasez de chips ligados a inteligencia artificial. En clave macroeconómica, analiza las advertencias inflacionarias de Kazuo Ueda y Neel Kashkari sobre los efectos persistentes del encarecimiento energético y anticipa una posible subida de tipos de 25 puntos básicos por parte del European Central Bank en junio, mientras considera menos probable un movimiento inmediato de la Reserva Federal. Además, el mercado vigila la debilidad del consumo interno y el próximo dato del PCE estadounidense, clave para calibrar la presión inflacionaria en EE.UU. Terminamos la hora con el consultorio de bolsa junto a Miguel Méndez, analista independiente.

As the S&P 500 (SPX) hits a record high, Charles Schwab's Joe Mazzola believes there's room for a higher run. A surge in call options activity, backed by strength in key sectors, serve as key arguments to Joe's bullish thesis. He notes a hot PCE print later this week will become a roadblock should it manifest. Michelle Gibley says semiconductor stocks remain in a cyclical trend not just in the U.S., but also overseas in economies like Taiwan and South Korea. Those countries also face similar concerns as the U.S., particularly in rising inflation. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

May 26, 2026 | Season 8 | Episode 16SpaceX is finally nearing the public markets and the hype is already loud, but we're not treating it like a fairy tale. We walk through what a SpaceX IPO could look like at an enormous valuation, why mega IPOs often behave differently than classic “ground floor” listings, and what history says about first-day pops versus the next three years. We also dig into the mechanics that can move the stock after the opening bell, including lockup expirations, insider supply, and the buying pressure that can come later when major indexes and index funds need to add shares.From there, we widen the lens to the daily drivers behind today's tape: Middle East negotiations, oil sliding, Treasury yields easing, and why that combination can lift equity futures even when the geopolitical backdrop feels unstable. We preview key US economic releases like consumer confidence and the PCE inflation report, and we talk about how inflation expectations and deficits feed into the bond market and, ultimately, stock valuations.If bonds still make you uneasy after 2022, we offer a clearer way to think about risk now that starting yields are higher. We cover practical ideas like shorter-term bonds, preferred stocks, and TIPS, then discuss higher-yield options like business development companies (BDCs) with a frank look at the tradeoffs. We also share why Japan is back on the radar for global investors and wrap with a quick scan of a few “unloved” US stocks outside big tech.Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, share this with a friend who's watching SpaceX, and leave a review telling us: are you buying day one or waiting for volatility to settle?** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure **To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-formFollow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan discuss an S&P 500 pressing all-time highs amid sticky inflation, a 10-year yield around the mid-4% range, and low near-term volatility despite an upcoming Fed meeting and PCE data. They review mixed retail signals (strength at higher-end brands versus Walmart's margin pressure and a strained lower-end consumer), debate the market's resilience, and focus on AI: Nvidia's explosive growth and concerns that soaring usage-based AI costs could challenge the “sanctity” of big-tech CapEx, alongside critiques of Meta layoffs and skepticism about SaaS firms overpromising AI. Guy then interviews Darrell Crate of Easterly, who outlines structural volatility, demographic-driven retirement needs, and hedged equity demand, argues small caps benefit from innovation, and describes Easterly Government Properties as a mission-critical government-lease REIT with an 8% dividend, no canceled leases, a $1.5B pipeline, and potential tailwinds from government efficiency initiatives and GSA changes. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

週一天下零時差關注以下財經大事： 一、主計總處本週公布最新經濟預測，成長率會比去年高嗎？ 二、美國公布最新PCE指數，將是美聯準會下半年利率決策風向球。 三、美股續創新高，為何美國消費信心疲軟，對經濟有何影響？ 文：蔡娪嫣、郭家宏 製作團隊：李洛梅、張雅媛、鄭子鴻 ＊閱讀零時差，點這看全文

Feeling like you need perfect stats, thousands of PCE hours, and a flawless CASPA app to get into PA school? In this episode, we're breaking down why getting accepted is MORE about strategy, school matching, and building the strongest version of YOUR application — not being the “perfect” applicant.Application to Acceptance ENROLLING!! Inside A2A, we walk you through every step of creating your strongest, most competitive CASPA application!Every step of putting together your strongest, best PA school application:Choosing the right PA schools for YOU and YOUR stats (even if you have a low GPA or weakness)Writing your most compelling personal statementCASPA Experience Paragraphs Templates - plug-and-play templates to write strong experience paragraphs that highlight YOUNEW!! Personal Statement Theme + Outline Creator Tool - discover your strongest themes AND get an outline of exactly what to write unique to YOUInterview course + MMI + Traditional Q&A WorkbooksSupplemental essays, AI and technology essay, and life essayTemplates for emails of continued interest to PA schools, LORs and so much more!Direct access to us in a private A2A group for anything that comes up throughout your cycleJoin A2A hereKeep up the amazing work, future PA!Katie + Beth

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Juan Manuel de los Reyes y Andre Dos Santos abren con la última actualización del conflicto entre Estados Unidos e Irán, donde las negociaciones avanzan con mediación pakistaní pero los dos obstáculos principales siguen sin resolverse.Lenovo reportó resultados récord para el cuarto trimestre y el año completo de su FY2025/26, con crecimientos pronunciados en revenue, utilidades ajustadas y en su segmento de infraestructura AI; los hosts analizan el reporte y lo ubican dentro del ciclo de inversión en inteligencia artificial. Luego revisan el estado de la temporada de resultados del S&P 500 con 472 compañías ya reportadas, repasando las sorpresas por sector. El episodio cierra con un vistazo al calendario macro de la semana del 26 de mayo, dominado por el jueves 28 y la publicación del PCE, en el contexto del reciente relevo en la presidencia de la Reserva Federal con Kevin Warsh.

This week, after a sharp rise in global bond yields, we await key inflation data in the US and Euro area, and discuss the fallout in Asia. We preview US core PCE and Euro area inflation, discuss a change in our Fed forecasts, and update on UK politics. In Asia, we preview decisions by the BOK and RBNZ, as well as core inflation in Singapore. And, in a special segment, Albert Leung, our Head of Asia rates strategy, discusses rising global bond yields and opportunities in Asia. Chapters: US: 2:10; London: 11:02, Asia: 16:50; Special Market Segment: 23:51

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a semana seguiu marcada pelas negociações entre Estados Unidos e Irã. O Trump chegou a sinalizar um possível ataque, posteriormente cancelado após pedidos de países do Golfo. As conversas continuam, mas seguem os impasses envolvendo o enriquecimento de urânio e o controle do fluxo no estreito de Ormuz. A ata do Fed mostrou maioria dos membros considerando apropriada uma alta de juros caso a inflação permaneça persistentemente acima da meta. O Waller, um dos diretores da entidade, que anteriormente defendia cortes, afirmou que discutir redução de juros no curto prazo seria inadequado diante dos dados recentes. Na Zona do Euro, os PMIs mostraram desaceleração adicional da atividade, principalmente em serviços. No Brasil, a semana teve poucos dados econômicos, com destaque maior para os desdobramentos políticos. O diretor do BCB Nilton David teve discurso interpretado como mais dovish, reforçando expectativa de continuidade dos cortes de 25 bps na Selic. Nas pesquisas eleitorais, Flávio Bolsonaro perdeu espaço após os áudios divulgados na semana anterior, enquanto Lula apresentou melhora marginal de aprovação. Apesar disso, a leitura segue de disputa ainda competitiva no segundo turno, com Flávio Bolsonaro permanecendo como candidato viável. Nos EUA, os juros mais curtos tiveram abertura marginal, e os mais longos fechamento marginal, enquanto as bolsas tiveram desempenho positivo – S&P 500 +0,88%, Nasdaq +1,22% e Russell 2000 +2,72%. O juro de 30 anos no Reino Unido fechou 28 bps. No Brasil, o jan/29 fechou 27 bps, o Ibovespa desvalorizou 0,61% e o real valorizou 0,38%. Na próxima semana, destaque para o PCE nos EUA e, no Brasil, atenção para o PIB, IPCA-15, dados de mercado de trabalho e índices de confiança.

Brian Szytel recaps a positive market turnaround from Miami Beach after Hightower leadership meetings, with the Dow up about 280 points, the S&P up ~15 bps, and the Nasdaq up ~10 bps; year-to-date, the Dow is up ~5%, the S&P ~9%, and the Nasdaq ~13%. Rates were little changed with the 10-year around 4.56%, and WTI oil was slightly down amid reports of a potential Saudi-linked development in the Iran conflict. He discusses persistent core inflation across CPI, PPI, and PCE as demand growth outpaces supply growth alongside rising money supply, while maintaining the thesis of a 1% real Fed funds rate but with higher inflation expectations (now ~2.5–3%) implying a higher terminal Fed funds range. Economic data included slightly better housing starts (~1.5M), in-line jobless claims (209K), strong flash manufacturing PMI (55.3), and slightly softer services PMI (50.9), and he explains why markets focus on results versus expectations. 00:00 Welcome and Updates 00:52 Market Close Recap 01:44 Inflation and Fed Outlook 03:32 Today Economic Data 04:30 How to Read Data 05:33 Wrap Up and Thanks 05:53 Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Fed's Inflation Problem Just Got More Complicated U.S. inflation accelerated sharply in April, with CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year, the highest reading in nearly three years, as the Iran conflict continued to ripple through global energy markets. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose to 2.8%, up from 2.6% in March, suggesting inflation pressures are beginning to broaden beyond energy alone. The biggest driver was oil. Ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most critical oil shipping routes — pushed crude prices sharply higher over the past two months. Gasoline prices surged again in April and are now up 28.4% compared to a year ago. Diesel, jet fuel, utilities, and transportation costs also moved higher. Analysts estimate energy alone accounted for more than 40% of the monthly CPI increase. Food inflation also remained elevated, rising 3.2% year-over-year. Some categories saw especially sharp increases, including tomatoes (+39.7%) and fresh vegetables (+11.5%). Airline fares were another major outlier, jumping 20.7% from last year as higher fuel costs filtered through the travel industry. The April inflation report complicates the Federal Reserve's outlook. Markets had expected rate cuts later this year, but stronger inflation and resilient consumer spending are now pushing those expectations further out. Treasury yields moved higher immediately after the CPI release as investors repriced the likelihood of rates staying elevated for longer. That said, it's important not to overreact to a single report. In roughly two weeks, investors will get the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) report, which is the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve watches most closely. Unlike CPI, PCE captures a broader view of consumer spending and adjusts more dynamically as spending habits change. There are several key differences between the two reports. CPI primarily measures out-of-pocket spending by urban consumers, while PCE also includes rural households and purchases made on behalf of consumers, such as employer-sponsored healthcare and government programs like Medicare and Medicaid. As those costs rise, consumers still feel the impact indirectly. PCE also better reflects substitution effects — meaning it captures when consumers shift from higher-priced goods to lower-cost alternatives during inflationary periods. The weighting differences are significant as well. Housing makes up 44.5% of CPI but only 18.1% of PCE. Meanwhile, healthcare represents just 8.4% of CPI compared to 20.6% of PCE. While the upcoming PCE report will likely also show inflation accelerating, the bigger question is whether this energy shock proves temporary or becomes more persistent. If oil prices remain elevated, energy could continue to be the primary driver behind inflation data for the next several months — and that would make the Fed's path forward significantly more difficult.   The market continues to flash warning signs beneath the surface. The semiconductor sector, as measured by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, has only been this extended above its 200-day moving average twice before in modern history: 1995 and early 2000. Those are not random comparisons. In 2000, semiconductors peaked alongside the final stages of the dot-com bubble, marking a generational top in speculative growth stocks. In 1995, the outcome was different but still instructive: semiconductor stocks entered their own bear market even as the broader indexes continued grinding higher. Given that semiconductor stocks are now such a large part of the market, I believe it would be hard for the market to rally if this sector entered a bear market. There was also another warning sign you should be aware of. Last week, the S&P 500 hit another record high while an unusually large number of individual stocks simultaneously registered fresh 52-week lows. Historically, that kind of divergence has rarely occurred outside of major topping periods. As Bespoke Investment Group noted: “Since 1996, the only other period where we saw the S&P at record highs with fewer than 60% of stocks above their 50- and 200-day moving averages was from late 1998 to early 2000.” That matters because healthy bull markets are typically characterized by broad participation. When indexes rise while fewer stocks carry the advance, it often signals deteriorating internal strength masked by mega-cap concentration. Today's market has become increasingly dependent on a handful of AI and semiconductor names to sustain index performance. Valuations across those leadership stocks are being justified by near-perfect expectations: uninterrupted earnings growth, sustained AI capex expansion, and continued multiple expansion despite elevated rates and slowing macro conditions. That combination leaves very little room for disappointment. None of this guarantees an immediate crash. Markets can remain overextended longer than expected, especially during periods of technological enthusiasm and liquidity-driven momentum. But history suggests these types of extremes tend to appear late in cycles, not early. The key issue isn't simply that valuations are expensive. It's that market breadth, positioning, and sentiment are all increasingly disconnected from the underlying participation beneath the indexes. That's usually when risk becomes hardest to see — and most dangerous to ignore.   Consumers Say They're Worried, But They Keep Spending The latest U.S. retail sales report continues to tell a very different story than consumer sentiment surveys. According to the latest Census Bureau retail sales data, overall retail and food service sales remained resilient, with strength in online retail, restaurants, electronics, and discretionary categories. Even after adjusting for slowing momentum from March's surge, spending activity continues to hold up far better than many expected. Compared to last year, sales climbed 4.9% and even if we back out the gasoline stations where sales climbed 20.9%, sales were still up 3.7%. If we exclude another volatile category in motor vehicle & parts dealers it was up 4.9%. This divergence matters. Consumers say they feel pessimistic and sentiment surveys confirm it. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index recently fell to record lows of 48.2 as households reacted to inflation and higher gas prices. It's important to point out this survey has been around for close to 75 years. Ultimately, I believe behavior is more important than survey as that is what drives the economy. Behavior still shows people are traveling, eating out, and shopping online. Employment and wage growth continue to support consumption and until the labor market weakens materially, I believe that will remain the case. Part of the disconnect is psychological. Consumers are reacting to inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and higher living costs. But at the same time, household balance sheets, labor markets, and asset prices have remained supportive enough to keep consumption moving. As long as spending continues, the broader economy remains on firmer footing than sentiment surveys alone would imply.   Financial Planning: How are your Rental Properties Performing? Rental properties should be reviewed over time just like an investment portfolio, yet many owners focus on a few attractive details rather than critically evaluating the full picture. Looking only at the rent coming in or calculating “net cash flow” using just the mortgage, property taxes, and insurance can create a very different impression than what is actually happening financially. Maintenance, repairs, vacancies, turnover costs, property management, capital improvements, and recurring “one-time expenses” can significantly reduce actual returns over time. That $1,000 per month of cash flow may sound attractive, but it becomes far less impressive if the property has $1 million of equity that could potentially be invested elsewhere. While many real estate investors benefited from rapid appreciation between 2019 and 2022, property values in many areas have recently remained stagnant, causing overall returns to slow considerably. After fully accounting for the true cost of ownership and the opportunity cost of the equity invested, many rental properties have likely underperformed the stock market in recent years despite continuing to generate rental income.   Companies Discussed: The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Whirlpool Corporation (WHR),  Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) & Ford Motor Company (F)

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a semana foi marcada pela divulgação dos dados de inflação nos Estados Unidos. O CPI surpreendeu para cima, com alta de 0,6% no mês, puxado principalmente por alimentação e disseminado entre os componentes. O núcleo veio próximo das expectativas, com preços de bens mais comportados, mas inflação de serviços ainda elevada, especialmente em itens mais voláteis. O PPI também veio mais forte, embora os componentes relevantes para o PCE tenham sido mais benignos. Na atividade, varejo e produção industrial surpreenderam positivamente, reforçando o cenário de crescimento resiliente. No Reino Unido, continuou a pressão política sobre o primeiro-ministro Keir Starmer após o resultado fraco nas eleições locais, com aumento das especulações sobre sua permanência no cargo. No campo geopolítico, seguiram as discussões sobre possível acordo entre Estados Unidos e Irã, mas ainda sem avanços concretos. Também houve encontro entre Donald Trump e Xi Jinping, sem grandes anúncios, mas mantendo o esforço de aproximação entre os dois países. No Brasil, o IPCA veio em 0,67%, em linha com o esperado, com piora de serviços subjacentes, reduzindo espaço para cortes de juros. A PMC surpreendeu positivamente, com alta disseminada. No campo político, foi divulgada nova pesquisa eleitoral, com melhora do Lula e piora do Flávio Bolsonaro. Além disso, a semana foi marcada pela divulgação de conversas envolvendo Flávio e Daniel Vorcaro, trazendo impacto negativo para a oposição. Nos EUA, o juro de 5 anos abriu 25 bps, e as bolsas tiveram desempenho misto – S&P 500 +0,13%, Nasdaq -0,38% e Russell 2000 -2,37%. No Reino Unido, o juro de 30 anos abriu 27 bps. No Brasil, o jan/31 abriu 64 bps, o Ibovespa caiu 3,71% e, o real, 3,3%. Na próxima semana, destaque para os PMIs de maio e para a ata da última reunião do Fed. No Brasil, o foco segue nos desdobramentos políticos.

In Episode 187 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, ask the question on every investor's mind: Does today's market feel like 1999?The episode opens with genuine nostalgia. Ryan recalls tripling his play money on Sycamore and Juniper Networks before losing it all on margin. Sonu remembers 75% of his engineering class having job offers by August of senior year. The vibes were very different then.From there, Ryan and Sonu dig into the numbers raising eyebrows. Semiconductors now make up roughly 22% of the S&P 500, up from around 6% at last April's lows. A telecom ETF built around AI infrastructure is up 44% year to date. These are not boring numbers. But beneath all that heat, sentiment is in the toilet, breadth is holding up, and credit spreads are making new cycle lows in ways that look nothing like the quiet deterioration that began in 1998. Ryan and Sonu make the case that this is not 1999. Not yet, anyway.Then Sonu drops inflation data that deserves a second read. Computer software and accessories, where AI token and cloud spending shows up in CPI, is running at an 83% annualized pace over the last three months. The Fed has a real problem. Ryan and Sonu walk through why stable jobs plus hard inflation plus a dovish Fed still adds up to bullish for equities, before closing out with a stronger-than-expected labor market update, a preview of the US-China trade meeting, and a record-breaking Uber ride from O'Hare to Cedar Rapids.Key Takeaways:Semiconductor stocks and AI infrastructure names are posting numbers that feel frothy on the surface, but earnings growth and genuine demand provide far more fundamental support than the dot-com era ever did.The NYSE advance decline line just hit an all-time high. In 1998, it peaked 18 months before the market did. That divergence is not happening today.AI-related inflation is real and showing up in the data. Computer software in PCE is running nearly 60% annualized over the last six months. This is not just an energy or tariff story.The S&P 500 has posted six consecutive weekly gains totaling over 16%, the second best such streak on record. One year later, the market has historically been up 17% on average.The labor market is quietly stabilizing. Blue-collar sectors that were bleeding jobs in 2024 are turning around, and prime-age employment sits at its highest ratio since before the 2008 financial crisis.The longer the Fed delays action on inflation, the greater the Volcker-style risk in 2027 or 2028. The AI capex boom has driven roughly 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters. When that fades, the math changes.Jump to:0:00 — Welcome and the 1999 Question2:00 — College Memories and Dot Com Vibes6:20 — New Highs with Rotten Sentiment10:30 — Frothy Semis and Leverage Lessons15:50 — AI Infrastructure Trade and Sector Gaps22:40 — Breadth, Credit Spreads, and Bull Signals33:10 — CPI Heat from Tariffs and AI Bottlenecks41:50 — Fed Risks and When Booms Break49:40 — Payrolls Update and Blue-Collar Turn54:20 — China Trade Talk, Travel Chaos, and WrapConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Your letters of recommendation are the ONLY part of your CASPA application where someone other than you gets to vouch for who you are — and most pre-PAs don't realize these can make or break whether you get PA school interview invites.In this episode, we break down the 5 letter writers who will actually get you interviews, the people you should NEVER ask (even though you really want to), and exactly what to do when a letter writer goes silent on you before your submission deadline. Plus — the backup plan every applicant needs to have in place BEFORE they submit CASPA.If you're applying this cycle or next, this is the episode that saves you from a lukewarm letter (or a full CASPA application meltdown).___________________________________Grab our FREE Map to PA School mini-course — it walks you year by year through exactly what to do during freshman, sophomore, junior, and senior year of undergrad to set yourself up for a competitive PA school application. From GPA strategy to PCE planning to building the professor and PA relationships that lead to powerhouse LORs — it's all mapped out so you're never guessing.

The Last Trade: Joe Consorti joins to break down the bond market forcing Trump's hand on Iran, Morgan Stanley' launches spot trading, Coinbase's 14% layoffs, Saylor's signal on potentially selling BTC, Polymarket's casino dynamics, and why the math doesn't math anymore.---

In this episode, we discuss how U.S. inflation looks tame in CPI but remains elevated in the Fed's preferred PCE measure due to AI-driven demand and rising tech and energy costs. The discussion and content provided within this podcast is intended for informational purposes only and may not be appropriate for all investors. Reliance upon information provided in a podcast is at the sole responsibility of the listener. The information included herein is not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, a forecast, research, investment advice or a recommendation for any specific PIMCO or other security, strategy, product or service. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investors should speak to their financial advisors regarding the investment mix that may be right

Welcome back to another episode of Money Moves! Despite rising bond yields and inflation fears, the stock market is ripping to new all-time highs. Hosts Matty A. and Ryan Breedwell are here to break down this massive macroeconomic divergence and explain why the "haves and have-nots" dynamic is reshaping the financial landscape.In this episode, the guys discuss the recent crypto relief rally, the timeline for mass institutional adoption with the upcoming "Genius Act," and Charles Schwab's rollout of direct spot trading. Plus, with Kevin Warsh preparing to take over the Fed, Ryan doubles down on his July rate cut prediction. Finally, they dive into the housing market's latest data, revealing why the median age of first-time homebuyers has hit a record 40 years old.Episode HighlightsCrypto's Next Era: Bitcoin's push past $81k, why leverage caused crypto to lag the broader market rally, and how the expected "Genius Act" could trigger massive institutional holding by 2027.The Stock Market Defies Gravity: Why equities are hitting all-time highs despite the 10-year Treasury climbing back above 4.4% and core PCE inflation running hot at 3.2%.The New Fed Chair: Analyzing the transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh and why Ryan is still betting on a July rate cut to fuel the bull market.Real Estate Distress & Demand: Foreclosures are rising, yet buyer demand remains. A deep dive into the cost of renting vs. buying and the psychological shift in younger generations regarding the "American Dream."ETF vs. Stock Picking: Ryan's strategy for building a rock-solid portfolio using broad market ETFs to balance out high-risk individual stock picks.Episode Sponsored By:Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/CRE MASTERMIND: Visit myfirst50k.com and submit your application to join!FREE CRE Crash Course: Text “FREE” to 844-447-1555FREE Financial X-Ray: Text  "XRAY" to 844-447-1555IIMAGOS INCOME FUND: Full Investor Presentation: Text “INCOME” to 844-447-1555

Incompetent individuals cannot recognize their own deficiencies because they lack the very expertise needed to do so. Dunning-Kruger lives on… So many people confidently discussing a subject they know little about, while dismissing experts. The big boys have reported ! Powell’s Last speech – and a divided Fed. Inflation – via the PCE is hot. Our guest, Meb Faber co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management. NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE'S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Mr. Faber is a co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management. Faber is the manager of Cambria's ETFs and separate accounts. Mr. Faber is the host of The Meb Faber Show podcast and has authored numerous white papers and leather-bound books. He is a frequent speaker and writer on investment strategies and has been featured in Barron's, The New York Times, and The New Yorker. Mr. Faber graduated from the University of Virginia with a double major in Engineering Science and Biology. Meb spends most of his free time skiing, learning to surf, and traveling. And because he gets this question daily, Mebane is Southern (US), and rhymes with “web-in”.   Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AMZN), (META), (AAPL), (NVDA), (SNDK), (OIL), (GOOG)

This week, we discuss the preliminary release of first quarter 2026 GDP, the PCE inflation report, the FOMC meeting and recent earnings releases, among other developments. Although headline GDP grew by 2%, the details were far less reassuring. Growth was concentrated in healthcare, technology and government spending. Without those three pillars, GDP would have been negative. The FOMC meeting was historic: the statement drew the most dissents since 1992. Three dissenters objected to language that pointed to “additional” easing, arguing that rising inflationary pressures made such guidance imprudent. Finally, after a reasonably strong week of earnings reports, we discuss the narrow breadth of the equity market and the degree to which AI related companies remain the primary engine of the rally.

Dan Nathan speaks with David Rosenberg about a market week packed with tech earnings, GDP, PCE, the Fed, oil above $100, and a sharp USD/JPY move. Rosenberg argues the U.S. economy is K-shaped, with Q1 GDP growth heavily driven by AI-related tech capex while non-tech business investment contracts, and consumer spending exceeding flat-to-negative real disposable income mainly due to a falling savings rate, wealth effects at the high end, and credit reliance at the low end amid rising delinquencies. He says most sectors are losing jobs, productivity has driven nearly all recent growth, and an oil price shock is a supply-side tax likely to weaken demand rather than create sustained inflation. They discuss a divided Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh, high market concentration, extreme valuations with a near-zero equity risk premium, and whether yen moves or oil are bigger risks for equities. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

On the last trading day of the month, Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber led off the show with market reaction to quarterly results from four of the "Magnificent 7": Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft. The anchors explored which of those tech giants are best  positioned in the AI race. Hear what top executives from the four companies said on their respective earnings calls about capex strategy. Also in focus: Shares of Caterpillar and Eli Lilly jump on earnings beats, Nvidia and the AI trade, President Trump lauds the Intel rally as the stock more than doubles in April, Elon Musk back on the stand at the OpenAI trial, PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — posts its biggest gain in almost three years in wake of the Iran war. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mixed earnings results from Magnificent Seven stocks will be dissected today as investors await GDP and PCE data as well as Apple's earnings report. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The {securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. For illustrative purpose(s) only. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please seeschwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0130-0426) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Reporting from the Cboe, Kevin Hincks dives into a busy slate of economic data including the latest PCE and GDP prints. "None of it really scared the market too much," he adds. Amid early session-weakness for crude oil prices, Kevin points to the jump in energy commodities and supply disruptions as a possible root cause for higher inflation data. Later, Kevin reacts to Jerome Powell's FOMC press conference and his plans to stay on as a Fed Governor after passing the gavel to incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Markets are attempting to make sense of GDP, PCE and Jobless Claims data while also weighing the earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). Kevin Green is watching the $600 level for META saying that could be a key level for investors and traders to monitor as shares pull back after earnings. Meanwhile, Google's parent company continues to chug higher as its AI spend expands. KG later chimes in Microsoft's margin contraction being a key concern for the company moving forward. Lastly, he shifts gears to the energy commodity space as ongoing geopolitical risks and supply disruptions impact global trade. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In Episode 185 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are recording live from Omaha at PodPony's studio during Carson's Q2 board meeting. They make a pilgrimage to the McDonald's on 40th and Dodge that Warren Buffett reportedly frequents. They got the scoop on his usual order, but did Buffett himself show up? You'll have to listen to find out!On the markets side, Ryan breaks down why the current secular bull market started in 2013 and what history says happens after you're up 100%, which is exactly where this bull market now stands from the October 2022 lows. The S&P just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, and the data on "sell in May" may surprise you. Ryan's numbers show May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.The episode also covers the oil picture with WTI back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation still unresolved, the consumer sentiment disconnect between how people feel and what retail sales are actually showing, and the Fed outlook heading into tomorrow's decision. Sonu explains why Kevin Walsh is leaning on trimmed mean PCE to justify rate cuts, and Ryan calls him out for putting everyone to sleep. Gold gets a candid look too, still in a long-term bull market but stretched after a massive run, with real rate pressure creating some short-term headwinds.Key Takeaways:The S&P 500 just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, and the bull market has officially crossed the 100% gain mark from the October 2022 lows.Forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, the highest ever recorded.Ryan makes the case that the current secular bull market began in 2013 and explains what history says comes next.Sell in May is largely a myth. May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.WTI is back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation has not resolved the way markets hoped.Consumer sentiment remains near historic lows, but retail sales tell a very different story.Gold is still in a long-term bull market but faces short-term headwinds from real rate pressure after an extended run.Jump to:0:00 - Live from Omaha Setup 1:59 - All-Time Highs and Oil Shock 6:10 - Why Sentiment Feels So Low 11:27 - Board Meeting and Real Money 13:22 - Will AI Kill Investing Alpha? 16:09 - When Secular Bull Markets Start 21:00 - Global Breakouts and Gold Debate 22:36 - Rates, Inflation, and the Fed Shift 26:49 - Trimmed Mean PCE Explained 29:49 - Sell in May: Stats Check 32:58 - Bull Market Up 100% — Now What? 36:22 - McDonald's Hunt for Buffett 41:33 - Wrap-Up and DisclosuresConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

The share of U.S. debt held by foreign countries has been shrinking. Foreign investors currently hold about 30% of federal public debt, down from nearly half. In today's episode, we explain why the rest of the world isn't picking up the U.S. tab anymore, and how that'll impact American consumers and businesses. Plus: Three tech giants are eyeing initial public offerings this year, and Delta Airlines reported high earnings — and higher fees. Also, before inflation reports drop this week, learn why the PCE is slower than CPI. And finally, discover this hidden driver of the music industry.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.