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Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

WORST DAY EVER for SILVER Cold Snap in Florida – Massive Critter Drop New Fed Chair named Pausing on space PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - WORST DAY EVER for SILVER - Cold Snap in Florida - Massive Critter Drop - New Fed Chair named - Pausing on space Markets - Bitcoin plunges - Crypto "winter" - Deep dive into January economic results - USD rises from multi-month low - EM still powered ahead - ELON - PT Barnum move Cold Snap - On February 1, 2026, Florida faced a significant drop in temperatures, reaching a record low of 24°F (-4°C) in Orlando. This marked the lowest temperature recorded in February since 1923. - Iguanas dropping from tress all over the streets - Iguanas can survive temperatures down to the mid-40s Fahrenheit (around 7°C) by entering a "cold-stunned" state, where they appear dead but are just temporarily paralyzed and immobile; however, prolonged exposure to temperatures in the 30s and 40s, especially below freezing, can be lethal, particularly for smaller individuals, leading to tissue damage and organ failure. - They get sluggish below 50°F (10°C) and fall from trees as they lose grip. - The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) issued Executive Order 26-03 on Friday, allowing residents to collect and surrender cold-stunned green iguanas without a permit during an unprecedented cold weather event. Right on Schedule - Remember we talked about how the Nat Gas price was going to reverse, just as quickly as it spikeed? - Nat gas down 25% today - down about 28% from recent high - Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike. THIS! - Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company's proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI  was “never a commitment” and that the company would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.” - “It was never a commitment,” Huang told reporters in Taipei on Sunday. “They invited us to invest up to $100 billion and of course, we were, we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time.” Then Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of equity and debt - needs to fund more datacenter build-out. - What happened to the OpenAI $300 Billion committment? - Or is the money that NVDA "committed to OpenAi, that they must have committed to Orcle, not a committment - GIGANTIC CIRCLE JERK Fungus - -Interesting - Did you know? Botrytis cinerea, a fungus causing grey mold, affects grapes by causing bunch rot, ruining fruit in high humidity. - While it often destroys crops, specific dry, warm conditions can transform it into "noble rot," concentrating sugars and creating high-value dessert wines (e.g., Sauternes, Tokaji) with honeyed, raisin-like, and apricot flavors. January Economic Review Employment — Job growth was nearly flat in December, with 50,000 new jobs added and earlier months revised lower. — Unemployment dipped slightly to 4.4%, but it's still higher than it was a year ago. — Long-term unemployment didn't change and remains high, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%. — Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December and are up 3.8% over the past year. — Weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year's levels, showing a labor market that is cooling but not weakening sharply. FOMC / Interest Rates — The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. — Most policymakers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, though job gains are slowing and inflation remains above target. — Two committee members supported a small rate cut, but the majority preferred to wait. - Fed Chair Powell: Clearly, a weakening labor market calls for cutting. A stronger labor market says that rates are in a good place. It isn't anyone's base case right now that the next move will be a rate hike. - The economy has once again surprised us with its strength. Consumer spending numbers overall are good, and it looks like growth overall is on a solid footing. - Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished, but hard to say they are fully in balance. We think our policy is in a good place. - Overall, it's a stronger forecast since the Fed's last meeting. Haven't made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate is broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated, so we will be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us. - Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. We think tariffs are likely to move through, and be a one-time price increase. - Dissent: Miran and Waller (Miran is a admin shill and Waller wanted job as Fed Chair) GDP & Federal Budget — Economic growth remained strong in Q3 2025, with GDP rising at an annualized 4.4% driven by strong spending, higher exports, and reduced imports due to tariffs. — Investment was mixed, with business spending increasing while housing activity declined. — The federal deficit for December rose to $145 billion, though the fiscal year-to-date deficit is slightly smaller than last year. Inflation & Consumer Spending — Personal income and consumer spending rose moderately in October and November. — Inflation, measured by the PCE index, increased 0.2% in both months and roughly 2.7% year-over-year. — The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, with shelter, food, and energy all contributing. — Producer prices also increased, though 2025 producer inflation slowed compared to 2024. Housing — Existing home sales rose in December, but the number of homes for sale is still low. — Prices dipped a bit from November but remain higher than they were a year ago. — New-home sales in October were steady compared with the prior month but much higher than last year. — New-home prices fell compared to 2024, though they are still high relative to long-term norms. Manufacturing — Industrial production rose 0.4% in December and was up 2.0% for the year. — Manufacturing output increased, while mining activity declined and utility output jumped. — Durable goods orders grew sharply in November, driven by a big increase in transportation equipment, pointing to strong demand in key industries. Imports & Exports — Import and export prices rose slightly through November 2025. — The goods trade deficit widened in November because exports fell while imports increased. — For the year so far, both exports and imports are running above 2024 levels, though the overall trade deficit remains larger. Consumer Confidence — Consumer confidence fell sharply in January after improving in December. — Both views of current conditions and expectations for the future weakened, with expectations dropping well below the level that often signals recession risk. Earnings — Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, and overall results are strong. — 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, though this is slightly below long-term averages. Revenue beats remain solid at 65%. — Companies are reporting earnings 9.1% above estimates, which is well above the 5-and 10-year surprise averages. — The S&P 500 is on track for 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the 5th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. — Eight of eleven sectors are showing positive year-over-year earnings growth, led by Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services. — The Health Care sector shows the largest earnings declines among lagging categories. — The forward 12-month P/E ratio sits at ~22.2, elevated relative to 5-and 10-year averages, signaling continued optimism despite tariff and cost concerns. — FactSet also notes the S&P 500 is reporting a record-high net profit margin of 13.2%, the highest since 2009. INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/   S3XY No More - Tesla is ending production of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover by the end of Q2 2026 to focus on autonomous technology and humanoid robots (Optimus). - Do we have any idea with the TAM for either of these are? - Huge assumptions that Robotaxi will be a bug part of the global transportation. But, what if it isn't? - Unproven being built, taking out the proven - investors were not too happy about this...Stock was down after earnings showed continued sluggish EV sales and BIG Capex for Robotaxi refit, robots and chip manufacturing. But... - Friday - not to allow TESLA stock to move down tooo much. - With SpaceEx looking for an IPO in June - valuations have moved from $800B to 1.5T supposedly. - Now there is discussion of merging in xAI and possibly Tesla - Tesla shares dropped after earnings FED CHAIR PICK - Drumroll: Kevin Warsh - Seems like a good pick from the aspect of experience and ability - Deficit reducer? - More hawkish than market expected? - Announce Friday after several leaks in the morning And then... - Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980. -It was down 35% during the day - the worst daily plunge ever on record. - It was the worst decline since the March 1980 Hunt Brothers crash. - The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh's nomination. - However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits.- USD Spiked higher - Gold was down 10% - GOLD saw a drop of 10% to the close - 12% intraday - this was also a record - Bitcoin is down 25% from its recent level 2 weeks ago - ALL BEING BLAMED ON THE FED CHAIR PICK -- QUESTION - Will Trump back-peddle this OR talk to supporters in congress or tell them not to confirm him if markets continue to act squirrely? Fed Statement and Rates - Fed out with statement - no change on rates - Changes: Inflation up, employment steady, economy strong - Does not bode for much in the way of cuts - probably on hold though end of Powell term Apple Earnings - Apple reported blowout first-quarter earnings on Thursday, and predicted growth of as much as 16% in the current quarter, matching the period that just ended. - Sales could be even better, Apple said, if the company just secure enough chips to meet its customers' iPhone demands. - The company reported $42.1 billion in net income, or $2.84 per share, versus $36.33 billion, or $2.40 per share, in the year-ago period. - Apple saw particularly strong results in China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. Sales in the region surged 38% during the quarter to $25.53 billion. - “The constraints that we have are driven by the availability of the advanced nodes that our SoCs are produced on, and at this time, we're seeing less flexibility in supply chain than normal,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said. - Stock up slightly - no great moves.... Blue Origin - Blue Origin will pause tourist flights to space for “no less than two years” to prioritize development of its moon lander and other lunar technologies. - The decision reflects Blue Origin's commitment to the nation's goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence. - The pause in tourist flights grounds the company's reusable New Shepard rocket, which has sent more than 90 people to the edge of space and back to experience brief periods of weightlessness. - Datacenters on the Moon? (sounds like a Pink Floyd album)     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

This week's episode of Wealth Formula features an interview with Claudia Sahm, and I want to share a quick takeaway before you listen — because she's often misunderstood in the headlines. First, a quick explanation of the Sahm Rule, in plain English. The rule looks at unemployment and asks a very simple question:Has the unemployment rate started rising meaningfully from its recent low? Specifically, if the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% or more above its lowest level over the past year, the Sahm Rule is triggered. Historically, that has happened early in every U.S. recession since World War II. That's why it gets cited so much. And to be clear — it's cited a lot. The Sahm Rule is tracked by the Federal Reserve, Treasury economists, Wall Street banks, macro funds, and economic research shops globally. When it triggers, it shows up everywhere. That's not by accident. Claudia built one of the cleanest early-warning indicators we have. But here's the part that often gets lost. The Sahm Rule is not a market-timing tool and it's not a prediction machine. Claudia emphasized this repeatedly. It was designed as a policy signal — a way to say, “Hey, if unemployment is rising this fast, waiting too long to respond makes things worse.” In other words, it's a call to action for policymakers, not a command for investors to panic. What makes this cycle unusual — and why talking to Claudia directly was so helpful — is what's actually driving the data. We're not seeing mass layoffs. Layoffs remain low by historical standards. What we're seeing instead is very weak hiring. Companies aren't firing people — they're just not expanding. That distinction matters. And this is where I think the big picture comes in — not just for understanding the economy, but for investing in general. When you step back, the big picture includes a government with massive debt loads that needs interest rates to come down over time. It includes fiscal pressures that make prolonged high rates politically and economically painful. And it includes the reality that if the current Fed leadership won't ease fast enough, future leadership will. History tells us that governments eventually get the monetary conditions they need — even if it takes time, even if it takes new appointments, and even if it takes a shift toward a more dovish Federal Reserve. That doesn't mean reckless money printing tomorrow. But it does mean that structurally high rates are unlikely to be permanent. And when you combine that with investing, the question becomes less about this month's headline and more about what's positioned to benefit when the environment normalizes. That's why I continue to focus on real assets that are already deeply discounted — things like multifamily real estate — assets that were repriced brutally during the rate shock, but still sit at the center of a growing, rent-dependent economy. This conversation with Claudia reinforced something I've been talking about for a long time:The biggest investing mistakes usually happen when people zoom in too far and forget to zoom back out. I've made this mistake myself. If you want a thoughtful, non-sensational, data-driven discussion about where we actually are in this cycle — and what the indicators really mean — I think you'll get a lot out of this episode. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Well Formula Podcast coming to you from Montecito, California. Before we begin today, I wanna remind you, uh, listen, we’re back in, uh, back in the saddle in here in, uh, 2026. I know it’s takes some time to get used to it, but we’re, gosh, we’re at the end of the month actually by the time this plays. I think we’re in February. It’s time again to start thinking about investing. And so if you are interested in potentially using this year, which I believe and which many believe to potentially be the last year, uh, big discounts, uh, in real estate and, uh, various other types of offerings. Make sure. To sign up for the Accredit Investor group, our investor club, as we call it wealthformula.com. You do need to be an accredit investor and then you get onboarded. An accredit investor is just defined by who you are. If you make over $300,000 per year filing jointly, or 200 by yourself, every reasonable expectation to do so in the future. Or you have a net worth of a million dollars outta your personal, outside of your personal residence, you’re an accredit investor. Congratulations. Join the club wealthformula.com. Interesting podcast. Today we have, uh, Claudia Sahm She’s a Big Deal, Claudia Sahm. You may recognize that last name som, for this som rule. And what is a som rule in plain English. You actually have heard of the som rule multiple times from other economists who’ve been on the show. The som rule looks at unemployment. And asks a very simple question. Now, has the unemployment rate started rising meaningfully from its recent low? So specifically, if the three month average unemployment rate rises 0.5% or more above its lowest level, over the past year, this som rule is triggered. Now, historically, that has happened early in every US recession since the World War ii. That’s why it gets cited so much. It gets cited a lot. By the way, the sum rule is tracked by the Fed treasury economists, wall Street Banks, macro funds, economic research shops globally, and when it triggers, it shows up everywhere, and that’s not by accident. Uh, Claudia has built one of the cleanest early warning indicators we have, but here’s the part that often gets lost. The som rule is not a market timing tool, and it’s not a prediction machine. Claudia, uh, emphasized that repeatedly. It was designed as a policy signal, a way to say, Hey, if unemployment’s rising this fast, wait, waiting too long to respond makes things worse. In other words, it’s call to action for policy makers, not a command for investors to panic per se. So what makes this cycle unusual and why talking to Claudia directly was so helpful? Well, it’s what’s actually driving the data. We’re not seeing mass layoffs. Layoffs remain low by historical standards. Um, what we’re seeing instead is very weak. Hiring companies aren’t firing people, they’re just not expanding, and that distinction matters. This is where the big picture comes in, not just for understanding the economy. For investing in general and when you step back, the big picture includes a government with massive debt loads that need interest rates to come down over time. It includes fiscal pressures that make prolonged high rates politically and economically painful. I’ve mentioned this before and it includes the reality that have to fed, fed, uh, if the current Fed leadership won’t ease fast enough. I am likely the case that future leadership appointed by. Donald Trump himself, uh, will, so history tells us that governments eventually get the monetary conditions they need, even if it takes time, even if it takes new appointments. And even if it takes a shift towards a more dovish federal reserve. Uh, that doesn’t mean, uh, reckless money printing tomorrow, but it does mean that structurally. High interest rates are unlikely to be permanent. Okay? And when you combine that with investing, the question becomes less about this month’s headline and more about what’s positioned to benefit when the environment normalizes. Okay? That’s really, really important, and that’s why I continue to focus on things like real estate, right? Real estate is currently. Not for long, in my opinion, but deeply discounted things like multifamily real estate, um, that were repriced brutally during the rate shot, uh, but are still at the center of a growing and, and rent dependent economy. And again, uh, this conversation with Claudia reinforced something that I’ve been talking about a long time, which is the biggest investing mistakes usually happen when people zoom in too far and forget to zoom back out. I’ve made that mistake myself. I am not immune. I have made lots of mistakes, and that’s one of them. So this is a great conversation. Hopefully you’ll enjoy it, especially if you want a thoughtful, nons sensational data-driven discussion. Where we are actually at in this cycle and what these indicators really mean. I think you’ll get a lot of this episode and we will have this conversation for you right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net. The strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps. Paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your investments get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealth formula banking.com. Welcome back to the show, everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula podcast is Dr. Claudia Sahm. Uh, she’s an American, uh, macroeconomic expert, uh, known for her work, uh, on monetary and fiscal policy and real-time economic indicators. She developed this som rule, which I think, uh, people have mentioned on this show before, so this is a great opportunity to talk to her about that. Uh, it’s a widely, uh, followed recession signal based on unemployment. She’s also a former Federal Reserve economist and senior policy advisor in government. Um, so welcome, uh, Dr. Sahm. Great. Happy to be here. Thank you. Well, let’s, let’s kind of start out with this som rule because, uh, you know, it’s funny, we, we have had a few different people, uh, at various times bring up the SOM rule, and I think one had actually said that it was triggered, but I don’t don’t think it was at any rate, let’s, let’s start with that. What is the som rule? Lemme start with why is there a som rule, and then we’ll then we’ll get to specifically what the, what the rule is itself. So when I started out on the project, it wasn’t so much about. Calling a recession, like there are some really fancy technical ways that economists like look at the tea leaves and the data and either try to forecast a recession, which is incredibly hard, or even just say we’re in a recession in real time. So like that’s a useful endeavor. But what actually was behind the development of my recession indicator was more of a call to action. How do we develop policies that, that the Congress can put into place very quickly if a recession comes? So these kind of what are referred to as automatic stabilizers, so they’re decided upon ahead of time, but then you do need a trigger that says a recession is here. So now that enhance the unemployment benefits, send out the stimulus checks, whatever it is that we kind of have as our typical tools that are used in recessions, we could have those ready to go as kind of guardrails. Then like you, you turn the policy on. So that was really my emphasis was on how do we do better policy and recessions, get the support out quickly. ’cause that’s the best chance of kind of stabilizing the situation. And then it’s like, well it was in a, it was in a policy volume that they asked for, like a really concrete proposal. So if I’m gonna say an automatic stabilizer, I need to have a proposal for what a trigger could be. So that’s really where the som rule came. So I think it is important. It’s definitely important to me to, I always remember like what the kind of reason for it’s sure. Now that also guided what the indicator itself looks like. So again, it was gonna be in, in fiscal policy. It needs to be simple, it needs to be something that we track it and it needs to, I felt it was important that it capture the reason that we. Fight recessions, why there’s such a bad, uh, you know, outcome. And so it looks at the, the unemployment rate. I use the national unemployment rate, take a three month average. ’cause we wanna smooth out, like there’s bumps and wiggles in the data from month to month. So you kind of, you know, three month average. One way to smooth it out. So you take that series of three month averages, you look at the current value, you compare to the lowest value over the prior 12 months, if you’ve seen an increase of a half, a percentage point or more. Which is really pretty modest, but half a percentage point or more. Historically, we have been in the early months of a recession, so it’s not a forecast. It’s supposed to be like we’re in it. Let’s go. It’s an empirical pattern. It’s one that’s worked in the United States. It reflects kind of our labor market institutions, the way unemployment rate moves and recessions. It historically is the case that once you get past a certain threshold of increased unemployment rate, it tends to build on itself. And in a typical recession, we see increases of. Two, three or more percentage points in the unemployment rate. Uh, so that’s, that’s what the summer rule is. And in fact, it did trigger in the summer of 2024. At that time I had said like, look around, we are not in a recession. GP is still expanding. Job creation is still happening. We don’t see the other hallmarks of a recession. And pointed to the fact that we’d had a very disrupted labor market after the pandemic in particular. You know, there had been a lot of immigration at that point. The unemployment rate is the total number of unemployed. So people who don’t have a job but are actively looking for one out of the labor force, right? And so these people that have to either be employed or looking for jobs, and so we actually saw from the pandemic. Both with the pandemic and then later with the surge and now the reversal in immigration. We’ve seen a lot of movement in the, in the labor force, which makes unemployment rate a little tricky to interpret. And then I’d also argue, we saw early in the pandemic, the unemployment rate dropped very rapidly. We even had labor shortages. So in some ways unemployment rate rising and it has risen over. I mean, it continued to rise last year in 2025. A lot of that’s also normalization. We’d had a very low unemployment rate. So I think the, the pandemic recession has a lot of features that were very unusual. We’ll talk probably more about the labor market continued to be kind of unusual. So the, you know, the somal was not the only recession indicator to fall flat on its face in the cycle. Um, but I think it’s still a useful, useful guide and I, and. You know, even if it’s not a recession, the, the unemployment rate is a full percentage point above, its low in 2023. So, I mean, that, that could, that could be a reason for policymakers to respond, even if it’s not responding to a recession. Right. That was the first time that it, that triggered and, and actually didn’t. End up in a recession, right? There’s some back in the 1950s, earlier, but it’s, it’s the first time where there’ve been some false positives in the past or, or near false positives. Like in 2003. It was kind of close, uh, is like the unemployment rate rises a little bit and then it falls back down. What we saw after it triggered in 2024 is it stabilized. Then last year it continued to rise. So this the pattern that we’ve seen since the pandemic of rapid recovery dropping unemployment rate and then it’s like gradually rising and yet has risen a full percentage point that you go all the way back in the post World War II period. We don’t see anything that looks like that. So that is a very unusual. Paris. So something’s more is going on in the labor market than just our typical business cycle, boom, bust, recession type dynamics. So what is that? What is the thing that’s happening that’s unusual right now in the labor market? Right? So the thing that is driving the unemployment rate up, I think this is a good lesson, a reminder to all of us. It’s not about layoffs. The rate of layoffs in the United States is really quite low. You look at unemployment insurance claims, they’re also quite low. What’s been pushing the unemployment rate up over the last two and a half years has been a very low rate of hiring and, and it’s, and it is something that over time will at least gradually put upward pressure on the unemployment rate and frankly. Until hiring picks up and we really don’t have many signs of it. Even as we enter 2026 unemployment rate’s gonna probably keep drifting up ’cause we’re not keeping job creation’s, not keeping up with, you know, people coming into the, into the labor market and, and that what’s, I think the puzzle right now is that hiring has been very low. But what we’ve seen in terms of consumer spending, business investment, so the kind of the big pieces of GDP, they’ve really held up pretty well, so. Business. It’s not, again, not that recession of the customers have disappeared. And so we’re not hiring, or we may even be firing workers. The customers are there for the businesses, but they’re choosing in this environment not to add, uh, to their payrolls. And that’s slowly pushing up down point rate. Yeah. Um, you know, it, it’s interesting what you’re, you’re talking about, but essentially you’re, people aren’t getting fired. They’re just, when they retire or leave, they’re just not replacing those. Individuals, you know, makes me think a little bit about what’s going on in the big, you know, in the tech push with artificial intelligence and that kind of thing, and increased in efficiency. Certainly you see that in the larger companies like Amazon and all that, where they’re just becoming massively more productive and cutting expenses essentially by, you know, using tech. Do you think that this is sort of an early indication, potentially of that kind of movement? So it. It’s possible, but I think we’re at the very front end of AI disrupting the labor market. This low hiring rate that we’ve talked about. You see this across all kinds of industries, including ones that don’t show high levels of AI adoption, and frankly, a AI adoption is pretty low. I mean, there are some sectors like tech and increasingly finance and some professional services have higher adoption rates. Uh, but in terms of it being able to explain the low hiring. I think it’s pretty tough ’cause the low hiring is such a, such a broad based, um, phenomenon. Now, AI might be, I think, indirectly contributing in that one of, one of the hypotheses about why, um, businesses have been, uh, not hiring despite, you know, economic activity. Continuing to push ahead could be that there’s a lot of uncertainty. Now there is a long list that we could draw of, of factors that might be causing businesses to be uncertain and hesitant to add to their payrolls. Uh, a lot of times you talk about things with tariffs or, you know, economic policy, regulations changing, you know, so there’s a lot going on there. But it could also be, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what this technology means for the future. Maybe you don’t need to bring on more workers because your ability to kind of use and adapt this technologies coming online. And so like that could be part of it. I think there’s another piece, you know, we have a lot of discussion about ai, but I do think that there’s, there could be a, a technology angle to this that’s, that is. Not in the AI technologies, but maybe just some of the more basic kind of automation is again, right after, you know, the, the pandemic recession as we came out of a, you know, very rapid recovery, uh, there was, there was a lot of hiring or that, ’cause businesses had done a lot of firing and they needed to bring back workers really rapidly and we actually had a period of labor shortages. There were workers moving around a lot and there were, that also put a lot of pressure on some employers, particularly in service sector, to automate more ’cause they just couldn’t get the workers, so they needed to bring technology. Online to help, you know, fill the gap. And over time, you know, businesses though, they haven’t done as much hiring, they have been firing. So the workers, they have longer tenures, have more experience, they’re probably more productive. So maybe businesses can kind of, you know, get away with not doing more hiring. ’cause the people they have there can kind of keep up with it. Um, and they’ve done some more automation. I don’t think those are sustainable. I think we’re going to need to see hiring pickup in terms of, of staying with, um, you know, as expanding, uh, demand from customers. But I won’t pretend to know what AI means for the future of the labor force. Right. So like there could be, I think that’s a big conversation about we’re headed, where we’re headed. I think it’s probably a pretty small slice of explaining. Where we’re at right now. You know, it’s interesting because obviously there was a lot of concerns about rising inflation, and particularly in the context of, you know, tariffs and, and among those types of things that were, were, um, coming down the pipe. And as it turns out, inflation seems to be coming down. How do you explain that from where you sit? Because it, it, it seems sort of to contradict a lot of what, you know, many economists believe to be likely. So when thinking about the effects of tariffs on inflation and this, this idea that it didn’t end up being as much of a factors we had really feared, uh, you know, a year ago. I think there’s a few things to keep in mind. One, the announced tariffs, uh. Didn’t come to pass fully. Right? So there’s a big difference between some of the, the, the initial announcements, whether it was on Liberation Day, April 2nd, or the initial kind of retaliation tit for tat with China, where we ended up with some triple digit, uh, tariff numbers. Those didn’t end up being where we, we ended now tariff, the effect of tariff rate. Is much higher than it was before. Right. Uh, president Trump came into office for the second time, so like, I don’t wanna minimize the, the, the increase in tariffs and the US government collected about $200 billion last year in, in additional tariffs. But there is a, there’s a good bit of daylight between what was announced and where we actually ended up. Businesses also proved very capable of trying to avoid those tariffs and not in like a. Illegal kind of way of avoiding them, but, but using inventories like trying to get ahead of them. We know the tariffs are tariffs. There’s been some evidence that, that it’s businesses are gonna start passing on the tariff cost increase when it’s actually tied to the inventories that they’re putting out in front of customers. And for some of our goods, like say apparel or things that have long seasons or come from, you know, all across the world, it actually takes quite a bit of time from the inventories being what actually shows up in front of customers. So there’s been the ability to. Kind of get around the tariffs ’cause they were rolling in. And so do be smart in terms of your inventories. And then it just takes time for those inventories to be, you know, um, to come down. Mm-hmm. By, there’s been several studies at this place, at this point that, that demonstrate that the, the tariffs, the cost of the tariffs is coming into the us. So the, it’s always the importer that pays the tariff, like literally writes the check to the US government. But it’s possible that the foreign producer could say, reduce their prices on what they’re, you know, paying or what they’re asking to be paid for that, uh, imported good. And then that would be a way of the foreign producer sharing the cost of the tariff. But everything that we see from the M Court data suggests that a very small fraction, probably less than 10%. Of the total tariff burden is being born by, at least at this point, born by the foreign producers. So it’s coming into the us. It’s sitting with either US businesses that are importing the goods or have the goods at some point in their, you know, in their supply chains and, and with us customers, the consumers we have, we’ve seen. I think you can really look at the inflation data. You can see the goods prices, which often are kind of a drag on inflation that they did turn around. They’re, they’re putting upward pressure on inflation. It’s not massive. It doesn’t explain all of these, you know, 200 billion in tariff costs, but then it is, it’s sitting with businesses. The effects still, it’s still just not that long enough to really understand. You know what, what the implications. It’s possible. I, I think that’s true with any, with any big policy change. Like it doesn’t happen overnight. I think that’s one thing that a lot of, a lot of economic models that, like, they’re, they’re very sensitive, right? Like as soon as a policy change happens, the models will kind of tell us something pretty dramatic in terms of adjustments. But this last year was a reminder, like when there’s, when there’s a big cost, there’s gonna be a lot of attempts to adjust around it to try to minimize that cost and then. It takes time, like in the real world, like the interactions are much more complex. You know, inventory lags all of the, like, it takes time to move its way through. So I think we’re not done with the pass through. I think we’ll probably still see more come to consumers, but businesses could decide to bear that cost. They, they could, you know, with profit margins. I mean some of, some of the inflationary environment in the pandemic did allow. There were very broad base increases in prices. You did see some companies be profitable from that because it was, there was a, you know, some of the costs were more targeted, but the, you know, the, the price increases were broad. So it could be a time where businesses see that, you know, consumers are more price sensitive now than they were in 21, 20 21, 20 22, so they’re not passing as much on it. Could be that that’s part of where. Like the cost businesses are dealing with that cost by maybe doing less hiring as opposed to passing it on to consumers. Uh, you know, they could be taking a hit with their profits. They, you know, so like, it doesn’t have to go all the way through to consumers. There are different levers that can be pulled. I do think we’ll still see some pass through in the, in probably the first half of this year, and that’s assuming that our whole tariff regime. Sit still, right? It looks like once again we might be, uh, increasing those tariffs, but, um, so yeah, I think it’s just tracing, you know, the tariffs through the system is really complicated. And one last thing I’ll say about the tariffs is they’re not just tariffs on goods that go to consumers. These tariffs have been broad enough that we’re also taring imported goods that are used by our manufacturers used for our, by our businesses in their production. So then it can take a really long time for that to end up with the, you know, the end customer could be a business to start with, and then it moves its way down. So I think these are just, you know, the costs are real. We can see the tariffs have been collected, the costs are there. We can see in the import data, there haven’t been import price data, there haven’t been a lot of adjustments by the foreign suppliers. So then it’s just a question of, we have these costs. Where did the cost go? I believe the last GEP was 4.3% and, uh, inflation was around 2.6, 2.7, or at least core. You’ve obviously, uh, worked at the Fed. Um, give us a sense of the situation that the Fed is trying to figure out here. Like what do they do with these numbers and, you know, all of the issues that surround them. The work at the Fed, I mean, it, it’s laser focused on the, the response, the mandates that the Fed has. So with maximum employment and price stability and with maximum employment, that’s not something that can be easily defined. It’s not like it’s a particular unemployment rate, it’s not a particular payroll number. But I mean, broadly speaking, it’s, you know, do, are, you know, the people who wanna work, are they working? In such a way that it’s not putting pressure on inflation, right? Like labor shortages that end up with wage increases that just, you know, end up with inflation. Like that would be a situation where the Fed would actually want to kind of help restrain some of the. Uh, employment growth. And we, we saw that in this cycle. I mean, the Fed raised rates a lot in 2022 and 2023. Uh, so that’s the maximum employment on the stable prices. The Fed has set a target of the 2%, uh, year over year PCE inflation. So a little different than the CPI inflation, but very much related. And, and it’s one, I mean, that’s, that’s the goal, right? And it, uh. So it starts with those two pieces and, and what’s been, I think what’s been challenging in say the last year as the Fed was, you know, trying to figure out what it was gonna do with interest rates was the fact that it, there was pressure on both sides of the mandate. Mm-hmm. Um, and not necessarily the, well, I mean, inflation itself has, was above the 2%. It continues to be above the 2%. Target has been. Since 2021. Now the Fed’s policy doesn’t have a look back, but I mean, they do worry that the longer inflation stays closer to three than two businesses. Consumers are gonna start to kind of embed three into their actions, their expectations. Then you kind of get stuck there. So like that, that both, you know, they were missing on the inflation mandate and there were, there were concerns that the, that we might see inflation get stuck above the mandate and the way you dislodge it if it gets stuck. Could end up risking a recession, right? So the Fed doesn’t want that to happen. So that’s a real concern. But then on the employment side, you know, we started out talking about the small rule, the rising unemployment rate. We’ve seen the unemployment rate rising. And then last year in particular, it wasn’t just the unemployment rate rising, we saw job creation just really take a leg down. Um. Some of that probably is less immigration population aging, so less supply of workers, which isn’t something the Fed would react to. ’cause that, I mean, if you don’t have as many people that wanna work, you don’t need to create as many jobs. But the unemployment rate was rising, so it’s clear, like there just wasn’t, there wasn’t enough job creation to keep up with, um, the workers who were there, uh, to work. And, and there was a concern that this could, could spiral out. Those small increased unemployment rate that, that very low level of job creation. And frankly, if you look at, I mean the, I mean, we have multiple months and probably more after revisions of declines in payroll employment. Mm-hmm. Like if you looked at the labor market data, you’d be like, aren’t we in a recession or like on the edge of one? Again, that’s not where we’re at, but it, it certainly gave that, that risk. Things could be slowing down. And, and the, the last piece that was really important in the Fed’s decisions was where, where’s the federal funds rate? Where are the interest rate, the policy interest rate they control? And it was still relatively high. For, for recent history, right. Not in the long history of the Fed, but mm-hmm. And so, like the Fed had raised, they’d raised interest rates quite aggressively to fight the inflation in 2022. They’d very gradually lowered it. Some was taken out in 2023 because made some pro, made quite a bit of progress on inflation in, or in 2024, they lowered the rates in 2025, the 75 basis points of cuts that the Fed did. It was out of concern. Of the labor market unraveling a risk, not a, not saying, hey, the labor market is unraveling, but saying the risk that the downside risk to employment are larger and more worrisome than the upside risk to inflation. So this inflation getting stuck, is that still the case as a going into 2026 here? So, you know, even, even last year we saw, we listened to Fed officials, there’s quite a bit of disagreement. Because it was a tough situation to read. There are some Fed officials that were more focused on inflation, some that were more focused on the employment side. Uh, and it really was just a matter of kind of reading the economy and trying to figure out this, a very unusual situation, like where, where was this headed? What did the Fed need to do? In the end, the consensus on the Fed was to do the rate cuts, kind of front load them. They talked a lot about it as insurance. They’re taking out insurance against the labor market deteriorating. And I think with that approach, in all likelihood, and there’s been certainly signaling of this, that when they meet at the end of January, it’ll, they’re unlikely to move again. That this is, this will be an opportunity to hold steady, be patient the Fed has, has taken out their restriction. So they don’t have the higher rates, so they’ve pulled rates down. We also know that early this year there’s various kinds of fiscal support that are coming online or tax cuts to households and to businesses that should give a little extra lift, uh, to the economy. So I think it’s a period of the Fed waiting to see what the effects of their policy changes are, seeing what the effects of the fiscal policy with the expectation this will be enough to stabilize the labor market. Even help get it back on track and really what the Fed would like. I mean, we’ll see what they get, but they’d really like the next cut to be a good news cut. Like inflation. Oh look, it’s moving back down again. We’re making clear progress back to 2%. I think that’s probably gonna take maybe even till the middle of this year to build that case. A strong case for the disinflation. Mm-hmm. But that’s, that’s what they would, would like to do. But they’re gonna keep an eye on the labor market. But nothing we’ve seen in the most recent data suggests that they gotta get moving like that. There’s some, you know, real pressure building. Um, in fact, the labor market looks a little bit better probably than when they met in December and inflation. Showing some signs of progress, but it, it’s pretty bumpy in terms of, there’s a lot of noise in the data at the moment. You mentioned, um, the Fed’s mandate and you know, certainly that’s something, um, that, uh, you know, that, that we know the Fed looks at these unemployment numbers that look at inflation. I’m curious though, that there’s, you know, there is this push and pull with the treasury. In particular, you know, looking at the amount of, of, of, of bonds that need to be refinanced, that kind of thing. I mean, presumably that’s one of the reasons why the Trump administration is pushing so hard, uh, on the Fed to reduce, um, you know, to reduce rates so that you know, this sovereign debt can be refinanced at a, something a little bit more palatable. How much of that actually. I know it’s not supposed to play a part in the Federal Reserve’s actions, but in reality is there, is there that kind of, you know, thinking that, you know, they have to, they, they may try to play ball a little bit with the, with the situation, with the debt. Yeah. There, the, the Fed is not playing ball right now with the administration. Uh, but, but there have been, there have been times in our past. So during World War II, there was an explicit cooperation between the Fed and the Treasury. The Fed kept interest rates low. Both the federal funds rates, so the short term interest rates, they also did, uh, some purchases of longer term to help keep longer term rates down. Right. So I mean, the, the Fed really, they, their policy was oriented exactly on this objective, keeping the borrowing cost of the US government low because it was financing the war effort. So, so there have been times where the Fed has cooperated with treasury. Now, when they came out of World War ii. What happened is, you know, treasury wants to keep interest rates low. This is good for, you know, the economy, good for growth, but it was, it really was creating a lot of inflationary pressures and it took until the early 1950s for the Fed to kind of regain its kind of operational independence from treasury and then go back to pursuing, you know, inflation as a key goal. And then also in the late seventies and maximum employment was added as an explicit goal. So we’re in a place now where. It’s employment, it’s inflation, it, there was quite, um, I mean, president Trump and some other officials have been, you know, very open about saying rates should be low to help with the deficit, with funding the gov. So like, it’s, it’s been in the discussion in the air. But that’s not, that’s not a mandate that Congress has given the Fed. That’s not what they’re pursuing. It does, you know, but things can change at the Fed. We’re gonna see a change in leadership this year with a new Fed chair. Um, the Fed always, I mean, Congress created the Federal Reserve. It’s changed its abilities, its responsibilities over time. I don’t wanna say that we’ll never get back to a place where the Fed thinks about. Its effect on the deficit. I mean, they’re watching it, they know, right? They’re tracking all these aspects of the economy. But in terms of what’s driving the Fed’s decisions about what the, the federal funds rate should be, that’s not part of the calculus right now. Yeah. Um, you know, another, just another question is for clarity. You know, the, the, um, officially right now there’s, there’s no quantitative easing. However, there is. Uh, you know, I’ve been reading, uh, about even, I think even today, there was a, a fair amount of liquidity, uh, being injected in by the Fed. Can you, for people who don’t understand the mechanics of this and what the difference in terminology is, can you explain to us maybe what the difference is between quantitative easing and what’s being done right now? So just as for context, where quantitative easing even came from. So if we go back to the global financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve, in response to that recession, pulled the federal funds rate all the way to zero. Cut rates to zero And as sure many of us remember that that recession was a very deep and long recession. So, and the unemployment rate was, you know, 10% and inflation was not a problem. So the, the Fed would want in that environment to do more to support the economy. But when the federal funds rate is at zero, that’s, its, that has been its primary tool. Well, that’s, that’s. Stepped out. So then as a question of, well, what else could we do to help support the economy? And, and there, there were. Different possibilities. Uh, some European central banks looked at, you know, they actually did negative interest rates or tried to pull their policy rates, and that’s not what the US did. What was done was to do purchases of, uh, treasuries. Uh, there’s also been purchases of mortgage backed securities, and this is where the Fed is. I mean, and, and they’re creating reserves. So the fed, I guess, secretary, uh. Treasury doesn’t refer to it as magic money. Um, you know, they create reserves and then they’re going out and they’re buying tr so they’re pushing that liquidity, that demand into markets. And if you’re, if there’s a lot more demand for treasuries, well, the price of the treasuries will go up. The yield comes down. Interest rates go down. Yep. Interest rates go down. So they. They were, the Fed wanted to support the economy more. That was the tool that they used to do it. So when, when the Fed talks about quantitative easing, it’s not just the tool, the asset purchases, it’s also the intent, right? They wouldn’t do quantitative easing right now. ’cause if the Fed thought they really need to stimulate the economy more, they’ve still got like. More than three percentage points they could cut from the federal funds rate. Like if the issue were right now, we need to like get the economy going, they’re gonna like cut the funds rate and do it that way. They wouldn’t be pur like purchasing assets, purchasing treasuries to do that. But what what happened is between the global financial crisis, the Great recession, so all the asset purchases done then. There was some, some runoff of the balance sheet, but then again, in the pandemic there were a lot of asset purchases. Uh, the Fed has a really big balance sheet, and it has, uh, it, it kind of changes the way that the Fed can even just move around the federal funds rate. Like, I don’t wanna get too much into the, the technicals, but it’s, it’s just, you know, when the Fed says, well, we wanna lower the, the funds rate to 3.5%. In the old days, they could kind of do, you know, with the bank reserves and they could like, make these small purchases and it would, it would make that stick. Now with, there’s, uh, banks have a lot of reserves, so they’re not as responsive. And so just to kind of, there’s like the, the technical, the tools, the Fed has to just make it happen. In terms of operationally, it means that they have to do some purchases now and then they call their, I mean the new name they have for these are reserve management. Purchases. So it’s really about operations. It’s not about, but it does mean they’re purchasing assets. So if you’re just focused on like the Fed’s purchasing assets, they’re putting liquidity into the system. Yes, they are doing that, but it’s not with the intent to kind of push the economy to run harder. It’s just enough liquidity to keep. The federal funds rate stable at the level that they wanted to be at, to just make sure that all these operations are short in the very short term lending markets amongst banks, that it’s all kind of working as mm-hmm. As it should be. So it’s more about operations and it’s about stimulus policy. Right. A lot of our, um, a lot of our listeners are real estate owners, investors, and they’re, you know, they think about, um. Mortgage rates and that kind of thing. There was recently a, a pretty significant, well, I don’t know how significant it really was. I think it was about, was it maybe $250 billion worth of mortgage backed securities purchased by Fannie Mae. Um, that ca can you talk about the purpose of that and really the, you know, what kind of effect that would actually, we could actually expect from that. It’s certainly been, I mean it’s, it is clear. You know, we talked about one reason that the administration would want interest rates down. It’d be like financing the deficit. Right. Another reason that very much pulls into kind of the affordability debate is we want interest rates lower, one of them lower for consumers. Now the White House has put a lot of pressure on the Fed for them to lower rates even faster than they have. Has not played ball with that. But then the Fed has lowered its rates. The Feds rates are very short term rates, and the federal funds rate is like an overnight rate with between banks. Right. So it, and it has an effect on, you know. Credit card rates, short term rates, but it’s not one, it, it has an effect, but it’s really not like driving necessarily 30 year mortgage rates or you know, some of the longer term rates. There’s a lot of other factors that go into that, and so in this kind of, you know, push for lower mortgage rates. Pushing on the Fed is not the only lever to pull, right? The administration has other levers that they could potentially pull, um, in trying to influence mortgage rates. Now, there, I’d argue the administration’s tools here, like the, the $200 billion, Fannie and Freddie purchase that you mentioned. That really is about trying to reduce the spread. Between mortgages and treasuries. So in some ways it sounds similar, like, oh, fed and Franny, which are, you know, GSEs. So part, part of the, you know, government right now, at least they were privatized during the global financial crisis. You think, oh, they’re going out and purchasing this Sounds a lot like the Fed going out and purchasing. There are there, there’s some parallels, but we need to remember, Fannie and Freddie don’t create money. The Fed, when they start, when they start the process of their quantitative easing, they’re creating reserves like they’re actually creating liquidity and money supply. Fannie and Freddie have authorization to be able to make these purchases, but they’re not like the fed. They’re not creating reserves, but they can, so I don’t wanna think about them like bringing down the whole set of interest rates, but they can affect this spread between mortgages and say treasuries. Right? And so, because again, if you’re, if the. If the GSEs are going out, they’re purchasing mortgage backed securities, well that’s increasing demand for those, and that can push down the rates, that can like squeeze that spread. And, and while the announcement has been made, you know, I mean they’re, they’re in the early stages of putting that in place, but we even on the announcements, saw a response in financial markets and you’re seeing some movement down, uh, in mortgage rates now. It was. Pretty modest, right? And, and 200 billion while, you know, not nothing, uh, really pales in comparison to like the scale of say, the quantitative easing that the Fed did. Um, and there are probably other, but the, you know, the administration’s not done. It doesn’t necessarily have to be that Fannie and Freddie do more purchases. The the spread between mortgage rates and treasuries is pretty substantial. There’s other places where, you know, the fees that go into getting a mortgage are quite a bit larger than they were before the, the global financial crisis. So maybe they go in and try to chip away at the fees and, you know, so there’s, there’s different levers. And I fully expect, and I think we’re gonna get some announcements here again soon on the White Houses. Housing affordability agenda. So there may be other, other ways that they’re trying to, uh, influence, uh, the mortgage spreads. But that’s, that’s what that is all about. And it, it should have, and it looks like, you know, it’s having some effect in terms of bringing rates down, but it likely, it’d be modest, like in the 10 basis points, maybe 20 if they ramp up the program some. But like, it, you know, it’s, it, it, you know, every, every bit counts. But this is not a. Uh, this won’t be enough to, you know, move rates down, dramatic mortgage rates down dramatically, uh, when you, when you look at the economy. Um, and I, I, I think just, you know, one last question. I mean, I just in terms of, you know, the people listening to this are. They’re, they’re people, you know, with jobs and who are trying to invest their money, and they’re trying to, you know, build long-term wealth, but they’re, you know, everybody’s worried about what’s happening with the economy. What, what, what do you think, like, just as, um, um, you know, perspective for people to understand or try to have some framework for how to look at what’s going on in the economy. How they should judge it. Like what would you suggest, like just for mom and pop investors trying to, what is happening with the economy? I’m not an economist. What, what are the, what are the things that you think they should consider studying up on, looking into a little bit? One challenge for a lot of investors, I mean, frankly, it’s, it’s been a challenge that I try to deal with too. Uh, we’re, we’re in an environment where there’s just. There’s so much news coming out of DC uh, with the White House and policies and the Fed, and you know, I mean, like, there’s just, there’s a lot. The headlines are big. And like I talked about with the tariffs, we had like really big tariff announcements. The really scary numbers were, and then it like dialed back and then we pushed through it and it’s like, and it’s this remembering that, um. There’s always a tendency to have this idea that the, the president really runs the economy. I mean, that’s not just about this administration. That’s like a longstanding, you know, the president gets, uh, blame or credit for the economy when really, right. Like we have a over 33, $30 trillion economy, hundreds of millions of workers, tens of millions of businesses. Like this is not about one administration. And so we always need to be careful about. Putting too much weight on the policies coming out of dc. Uh, and you know, last year if you really just listened to all the, you know, we’re cutting immigration, we’re raising tariffs, we’re doing, you know, all, there’s a lot of uncertainty in Doge. Well then you might have missed, like, there’s a bunch of AI investment happening and we’ve got a lot of growth in the economy and while consumers are still pretty resilient, so you, it’s kind of like. Tuning down the volume, some coming out of Washington, especially the like every twist and turn. Uh, and then kind of focusing in on the fundamentals. I will say, you know, you don’t wanna turn down DC too far because we, we do have some like big picture events that could play out over many years. Right. So kind of keeping an eye on it, but for the long game. As opposed to reacting to every twist and turn, every policy announcement, because a lot of this clearly is more of a negotiation than it is like, we’re gonna actually do this. So, you know, as investors, you don’t wanna get whipped around by the latest headline, but you also can’t put your head in the sand. Like you gotta kind of try and find a way to pull the signal out of the noise. And it is really. It’s really hard. Yeah. Like this has been a challenging time and the, the US economy’s been doing things that are not typical. We talked about some of the things with the labor market and we are running some policy experiments that haven’t been run in a long time, so things could change pretty dramatically. But I think it’s just trying to absorb the information, not get too wound up about it, but like also keep an eye on like what’s good for long-term growth. Yeah. Because it’s good for long-term productivity. Thank you so much Dr. Sahm. It’s uh, it’s been a pleasure talking to you on, uh, wealth Formula Podcast today. Great. Thank you so much. You make a lot of money but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Now, good news, if you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put out by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concept. Here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world, and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back to the show everyone. Hope you enjoyed it. It was Claudia Sahm. She is, uh, she’s a very, very smart lady. And, uh, just a reminder, if you have not done so, uh, I, I don’t frequently ask to do, do this, but, uh, make sure you give the show. Five stars and a positive review because that’s how we’re getting, you know, really high quality people like Claudia on the show, I’ve been around for a long time. It helps that the show is, you know, like over a decade old and all that stuff too. But, uh, anything you can do to support would be very helpful. And also one more reminder, uh, if you have not done so and you weren’t a credit investor, make sure you sign up for that investor club. At Wealth formula.com. That’s it for me. This week on Wealth Formula Podcast. This is about Joffrey signing out. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheelwright and Ken m. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.

Send us a textIn this episode of Ficonomy, Kyle breaks down three major economic stories shaping everyday financial decisions — without jargon, panic, or political spin.This episode focuses on what's happening, why it matters, and what you can actually do today.

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on the market's performance over the past few days, discussing the recent rally in the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq. He highlights the ongoing outperformance of small caps and their strong start to the year. The bond market's stability and yield curve trends are also noted. Brian shares his thoughts on the relevance of gold and silver investments, emphasizing a focus on fundamentals and cash flows. Additionally, he addresses a client's question about index funds, discussing their impact on market bubbles and the role of hedge funds. The episode concludes with economic updates on jobless claims, GDP revision, and PCE data. Brian encourages listeners to reach out with their questions. 00:00 Introduction and Market Update 00:37 Small Caps Performance 01:06 Bond Market Insights 01:42 Gold and Silver Analysis 02:58 Discussion on Index Funds 04:19 Economic Calendar Highlights 05:02 Conclusion and Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today's update, Palvatar breaks down a global risk-on rally after President Trump eased tariff tensions with Europe, lifting equities while softening gold. Strong U.S. data reinforced confidence, with lower-than-expected jobless claims and an upward GDP revision, as markets await the PCE inflation print. Europe signaled policy stability, UK data surprised to the upside, and crypto held firm, highlighted by BitGo's IPO and a standout Solana token debut.

Stocks found new strength Wednesday after Tuesday's slide, helped by positive geopolitical news. Today brings PCE inflation data in the morning and Intel earnings after the close. Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0131-0126) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss stocks rallying after Trump announces framework for Greenland deal. If the US loses its spot at the top, who takes its place? PCE inflation meets expectations. Fed is likely to hold rates steady next week. Trump warns Powell won't be 'very happy' if he stays on at the Fed. Procter and Gamble rises following assurances US sales are bouncing back. Gov. Healey says Massachusetts will shave $180M from residents' electric bills in bid to ease rising energy costs.

Ryan Stever and Jason England share their takeaways from the PCE data today. Jason notes that inflation is still sticky and believes members are still concerned; however, because of the labor market recovery, they can stay in a holding pattern. On the other hand, Ryan highlights strong wage growth and continued consumer spending. However, he spots issues in the labor market for middle management and recent grad students.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

November's delayed PCE print came in-line with Wall Street estimates. Kevin Green explains how this inflation print pairs with jobless claims earlier in the morning present arguments for and against FOMC interest rate cuts. Also keep an eye on volatility as U.S. dollar and treasury yields continue to tick lower. KG shares concerns for the Mag 7 bull case ahead of most of their earnings as Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) trade under their 20-day SMA. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Joe Mazzola and Cooper Howard discuss the market sell-off and pockets of strength they see in the weakness. Among them: materials, industrials, energy, and healthcare. Looking ahead, they emphasize the importance of the PCE data in influencing market direction, especially given persistent inflation concerns. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Overview: Tune into this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss global trade tensions causing treasury yields to spike and the markets to slip. All eyes this week are on earnings reports and PCE data, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.  Show Notes:

I was shocked at the comments on this post. Many people, some of them I know to be smart, thought I was nuts for suggesting two middle-aged women who had isolated high LDL-C needn't take meds because their calculated 10-year risk was less than 3% What shocked me is that our guidelines suggest treatment with statins when 10-year risk is ≥ 7.5%. You may not know this but clinicians are supposed to consider cholesterol (and BP) based on overall risk, which include things like age, blood pressure, smoking status as well as HDL. Here is a link to the PCE. It drives me bananas that clinicians don't go over this with patients. They just look at LDL-c in isolation. Content like this comes free of industry support. Please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Experts chose this a 7.5% threshold because they felt it was the point where the absolute risk reduction from statins (about 20-25% relative risk reduction) for nonfatal cardiac events outweighed any potential downsides of statins. It is an arbitrary threshold. The thinking: We know from many RCTs that statins reduce future risk by about 20-25% over 5 years. So .25 x the estimated risk outputs the absolute risk reduction. Let's say a person has a calculated risk of 10%. They can expect a 2.5% risk reduction (.25 x 10% = 2.5%) over 10 years. But .25 x 3% = .75, so a person with an estimated risk of 3% who takes a daily pill for 10 years goes to 2.25%. That's not much. Here are some pics of the pushback I recieved:My colleagues rightly point out that atherosclerosis of the coronary arteries is a slow process and longer exposure to lower LDL-c is beneficial. They feel that the 10-year horizon is too short. They cite something called Mendelian randomization studies which find that people who were born with genetic profiles that cause low cholesterol also have low rates of heart attacks. I wrote a post about this. I actually think that statins and blood pressure drugs may have greater effects in younger people who are at lower risk. But come on. Both individuals who I helped calculate risk were below 3%. That's too low to worry about. Further, if you think we treat people with elevated LDL levels who have this low of a risk, why do we need risk calculators? Or…why don't we just treat everyone above a certain age, since age is the largest driver in the calculators? These are issues I spoke with Drs Foy and Murthy about. I learned a ton. I hope you will too. Topics include:* The value of risk calculators* The uncertainty of prediction* The best time window to consider (statin trials were for 5 years; can we assume effect sizes over 5 years are similar at 30 years?) * The causal role of LDL-c vs “metabolic health”* The value of coronary artery calcium testing * Lipoprotein (a) Academic people like to make fun of podcasts, but I can't imagine a more educational 40 minutes. Andrew and Venk are two of the most thoughtful people in cardiology today. Enjoy and consider supporting Sensible Medicine This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.sensible-med.com/subscribe

We preview US core PCE, UK CPI, and China GDP, and discuss the latest on geopolitics and the Fed. In Japan, the BOJ is on the spotlight amid JPY weakness and prospects of snap elections. Norges Bank, CBRT, BI and BNM are also on tap with likely divergent forward guidance. Chapters: US: 01:55, Japan: 09:20, China & Asia: 15:40, Turkey, Europe & UK: 22:05.

as a follow up to last show's 'Review of US Economy 2025', this week the show makes predictions where it's headed in 2026. Topics include US GDP for next year, jobs & unemployment, Inflation (CPI & PCE), Fed interest rates (short & long term), continued devaluation of the US dollar and its consequences, direction of financial asset bubbles (gold, silver, crypto, stocks), AI investment & real business spending, government spending (defense vs social programs), budget deficits and national debt, US trade deficit. Impact of global trends (BRICS, sanctions, dollar demand, demand for US Treasuries by China, BRICS, etc. also discussed).

Original Release Date: November 25, 2025Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.It's Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won't hit the Fed's 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn't over, but the worst is behind us.So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to modest growth. U.S. consumers start to rebound, but slowly. Tariffs will keep prices firm in the first half of 2026, squeezing purchasing power for low- and middle-income households. These households consume mainly through labor market income, and until inflation starts to retreat, purchasing power should be constrained.Real consumption should rise 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.8 [percent] in 2027 – better, but not booming. The main culprit is a labor market that's still in ‘low-hire, low-fire' mode driven by immigration controls and tariff effects that keep hiring soft. We see unemployment peaking at 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, then easing to 4.5 percent by year-end. Jobs are out there, but the labor market isn't roaring. It'll be hard for hiring to pick up until after tariffs have been absorbed.And when jobs cool, the Fed steps in. The Fed is cutting rates – but at a cost. After two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and October, we expect 75 basis points more by mid 2026, bringing the target range to 3.0-3.25 percent. Why? To insure against labor market weakness. But that insurance comes with a price: inflation staying above target longer. Think of it as the Fed walking a tightrope—lean too far toward jobs, and inflation lingers; lean too far toward inflation, and growth stumbles. For now the Fed has chosen the former.And how does AI fit into the macro picture? It's definitely a major growth driver. Spending on AI-related hardware, software, and data centers adds about 0.4 percent to growth in both 2026 and 2027. That's roughly 20 percent of total growth. But here's the twist: imports dilute the impact. After accounting for imported tech, AI's net contribution falls sharply. Still, we expect AI to boost productivity by 25-35 basis points by 2027, over our forecast horizon, marking the start of a new innovation cycle. In short: AI is planting the seeds now for bigger gains later.Of course, there are risks to our outlook. And let me flag three important ones. First, demand upside – meaning fiscal stimulus and business optimism push growth higher; under this scenario inflation stays hot, and the Fed pauses cuts. If the economy really picks up, then the Fed may need to take back the risk management cuts it's putting in now. That would be a shock to markets. Second, there's a productivity upside – in which case AI delivers bigger productivity gains, disinflation resumes, and rates drift lower. And lastly, a potential mild recession where tariffs and tight policy bite harder, GDP turns negative in early 2026, and the Fed slashes rates to near 1 percent. So in summary: 2026 looks to be a transition year with less drama but more nuance, as growth returns and inflation cools, while AI keeps rewriting the playbook.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

What happens when economic volatility, tariff pressure, AI disruption, and shifting distributor behavior all collide in the same quarter?In this episode, Kevin and Tom unpack a whirlwind week inside wholesale distribution, revealing how new data, emerging AI workflows, and tariff rulings are reshaping strategy across the channel.Listeners gain a front-row view into the real conversations shaping 2025: revenue headwinds, inventory tightening, economic softening, distributor risk posture, and how AI agents are redefining customer-facing operations.What You'll Learn:Why distributors are tightening inventory positions heading into 2025, and what “flat inventories” actually signal about downstream demand.How upcoming tariff rulings and active lawsuits (like Costco's) may reshape pricing models, contract structures, and channel profitability.Why AI agents from Amazon, Salesforce, and emerging tools will transform inside sales, service platforms, counter operations, and multi-branch workflows.How economic signals, PCE, sentiment scores, personal spending, and Fed pacing, will shape capital planning into mid-2025.The competitive gap forming between distributors who unify data vs. those still operating silo-based systems.Episode Highlights:03:11 – Why this past holiday week felt like a 3-week sprint for operators and sales teams10:44 – Breaking down the PCE report, sentiment data, and the Fed's rate-cut trajectory18:26 – Are mortgage rates returning to the “fours”? A practical take on borrowing costs27:15 – Mohamed El-Erian's latest economic lens and why 2 percent inflation may be the wrong benchmark40:02 – Flat U.S. inventory levels and what that means for 2025 distributor demand53:19 – Costco's bold lawsuit over tariffs, and whether refunds to consumers are even logistically possible01:05:12 – Why Amazon's new AI agents increase competitive pressure on distributors01:17:50 – The rise of blueprint-driven AI takeoff tools (Home Depot, Lowe's, and the coming B2B wave)Tools, Frameworks & Strategies Mentioned:AI Agents for Distribution Ops (Amazon Connect, Salesforce Agentforce)Data Unification for AI Readiness (LeadSmart Platform + Data Cloud methodology)Synthetic Data for forecasting and demand simulationB2B Digital Takeoff Systems used by contractors and enterprise distributorsTariff Litigation Modeling driven by channel economicsClosing Insight:“AI isn't replacing distributors, AI is replacing the distributors who refuse to modernize.” This episode makes one message clear: the teams who unify their data, modernize their workflows, and embrace AI-assisted operations will define the next decade of competitive advantage.Leave a Review: Help us grow by sharing your thoughts on the show.Learn more about the LeadSmart AI B2B Sales Platform: https://www.leadsmarttech.com/ Join the conversation each week on LinkedIn Live.Want even more insight to the stories we discuss each week? Subscribe to the Around The Horn Newsletter.You can also hear the podcast and other excellent content on our YouTube Channel.Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or TikTok.

En Capital Intereconomía hemos repasado las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa. Asia ha cerrado con subidas tras el buen dato de inflación en EE. UU. y la subida de tipos del Banco de Japón, mientras Wall Street celebra la moderación del IPC. En Europa, el Ibex 35 ha superado los 17.100 puntos, impulsado por el BCE y la referencia inflacionista estadounidense. En el primer análisis de la mañana, Ignacio Vacchiano, country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares, ha analizado el impacto del movimiento del BoJ, las perspectivas del IPC y el PCE en EE. UU., qué puede hacer la Fed y la temporada de resultados, con el foco en Nike y FedEx. El programa ha incluido el habitual repaso a la prensa económica. En la entrevista, María Canal, portavoz de la representación de la Comisión Europea en España, ha abordado la continuidad del Consejo Europeo, las claves del Plan de Vivienda Asequible presentado por la Comisión y el nuevo paquete de automoción.

En Capital Intereconomía hemos seguido en directo la apertura del Ibex 35 y del resto de bolsas europeas. En el análisis de mercados, Xavier Brun, responsable de renta variable europea en Trea AM, ha ofrecido su visión de mercado en un contexto marcado por la decisión del Banco de Japón y la espera del próximo dato de PCE en Estados Unidos. Brun ha analizado el impacto en el sector tecnológico de la noticia de que China estaría logrando fabricar chips de 7 nanómetros —clave para el desarrollo de la inteligencia artificial— utilizando máquinas antiguas de ASML, y las posibles implicaciones para la industria global de semiconductores. También ha comentado la situación de Nike, que decepciona tras presentar resultados y cae con fuerza en preapertura, evidenciando las dificultades de la compañía para recuperar tracción en el mercado chino. El programa ha finalizado con el Consultorio de Bolsa junto a Roberto Moro, analista de Apta Negocios.

Ignacio Vacchiano, country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares, analiza la actuación del Banco de Japón, la inflación de noviembre, el dato de PCE de hoy y los últimos movimientos corporativos que tienen como protagonistas a compañías como Nike o Oracle. El Banco de Japón ha elevado los tipos de interés en su última reunión del año. En concreto, ha subido 25 puntos básicos, hasta el 0,75%, lo que supone la tasa más alta en 30 años. “El BOJ podría en 2026 decir que va a seguir subiendo tipos para telegrafiarlo con tiempo y no asustar”, afirma el invitado. Hoy en Estados Unidos destaca la caída en after hours de Nike, de más del 10%, después de presentar los resultados del segundo trimestre fiscal. La compañía ha visto cómo su beneficio ha caído un 31% en los seis primeros meses del año con unas ventas que se han visto impactadas por los aranceles de Donald Trump. Su margen bruto disminuye 300 puntos básicos hasta el 40,6%, debido al impacto de los aranceles. “El problema de Nike sigue siendo China, llevan seis trimestres con caída de ventas en aquel país y los márgenes brutos ahí descendían 13% las ventas digitales”, afirma el country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares. Con la mirada puesta en el dato de PCE de octubre, el jueves ha sido el turno del dato de inflación de noviembre. Esta se ha moderado en noviembre hasta el 2,7 %, tres décimas menos que en septiembre. Además, el mercado esperaba que fuera de 3,1%. La inflación subyacente, que excluye los elementos más volátiles (energía y alimentos), también ha sido mejor, ya que se ha moderado hasta el 2,6%. Ignacio Vacchiano apunta que “realmente es un dato que viene con mucha carencia de recolección de los mismos por el cierre del Gobierno federal y que prácticamente los inversores como que no se creen”. Eso sí, apunta a que “venía muy por debajo de lo esperado”.

Echamos un vistazo a los datos de la decisión del Banco Central de Rusia, el yen y el PCE de EE.UU. Con Enrique Díaz-Álvarez, director de Riesgos de Ebury.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we provide in depth reaction to the UWM TWO merger. Plus, Robbie sits down with Foundation Mortgage's Sam Bjelac for a discussion on the third-party origination and non-QM spaces evolution and expectations as we close out 2025 and enter 2026. And we close by reviewing what the latest PCE reports say about inflation.Thanks to the Refi Recapture Engine from LO Autopilot. Lenders lose ~80% of recapture business. Their plug & play Refi Recapture Engine triples recapture volume. It runs nonstop, analyzes every loan, creates personalized quotes and sends them directly to borrowers, and delivers refi-ready borrowers to your LOs on a silver platter. 

En Capital Intereconomía hemos repasado las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa. En el primer análisis de la mañana, Eduardo Bolinches, analista de Invertia, ha explicado qué esperar de bonos, bolsa y dólar en una sesión marcada por la cautela de Wall Street, pendiente del dato de PCE del viernes y de la evolución del precio del petróleo. El Brent se mueve en el entorno de los 60 dólares, reabriendo el debate sobre dónde puede estar su suelo, mientras los inversores valoran si la Fed podría optar por un ciclo de recortes de tipos más lento de lo previsto. El programa ha incluido el habitual resumen de prensa económica con las noticias más destacadas del día. En la entrevista, Juan Antonio de Castro, doctor en Economía y exfuncionario de Naciones Unidas, ha analizado el discurso de Donald Trump a la nación, la orden de bloquear totalmente los petroleros que entran y salen de Venezuela, la caída del índice de aprobación de Trump al 39% por motivos económicos y la advertencia de Estados Unidos de responder a las multas de la UE a las grandes tecnológicas americanas.

Futures pointed to up arrows ahead of Monday's trading session, starting the final full week of trading for 2025. Kevin Hincks warns investors that economic data, delayed or otherwise, will impact a lot of the action. He points to October's core PCE paired with November's CPI and unemployment as highlights. However, Kevin says the Santa Claus rally is coming even if it's a little delayed. He touches on President Trump's comments that he sees Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh heading the FOMC after Jerome Powell. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

La semana arranca con los mercados atentos a los bancos centrales, que celebran su última reunión del año: BCE, Banco de Inglaterra, Japón, Suecia y Noruega marcarán el rumbo de la política monetaria global. En Europa, se publican datos clave como los PMI de la eurozona, la encuesta ZEW en Alemania, y la inflación en la eurozona y Reino Unido. En EE.UU., la atención estará puesta en la tasa de desempleo, las ventas minoristas, el PMI, la comparecencia del gobernador de la Fed Christopher Waller, la inflación de noviembre y el PCE deflactor. Además, presentan cuentas compañías como Micron Technology, FedEx, Nike, General Mills o Carnival. Víctor Asensi (DPAM), Óscar Esteban (Fidelity) y Gonzalo Ramón-Borja Álvarez de Toledo (Swisscanto) analizan en la tertulia de mercados de Capital Intereconomía las claves que moverán los mercados en la recta final del año y las oportunidades y riesgos para invertir en 2026.

We are Green-lighting! Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden A Chocolate Craze PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - Announcing the participants for the CTP Cup 2025 (2) - Lots of execs moving around all of a sudden - Chocolate Craze Markets - NVDA gets the greenlight - Waiting for the ECO - ALL eyes...... Wednesday at 2pm - Oil Dropping - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Inflation - PCE comes in a little lighter than expected - However, let us be clear that inflation is not lower and prices grossly above where we were a couple of years ago - Inflation still running at around 3% overall - Fed set to greenlight the rate cut Oil and Gas - Oil has been dropping - reports that use will slow over the next year - Gas Prices Dropping slightly - Just saw $2.59 for regular unleaded down here - Double edged sword - oil prices dropping is sign of eco slowdown... Nothing to be excited about just yet.... Jobs - Reports show that U.S. employers have announced over 1.1 million job cuts in 2025 (as of early December), marking the highest level since the pandemic's start in 2020. - This has been driven by tech integration (AI), economic shifts, and soft consumer spending, with sectors like government, tech, retail, and warehousing leading. Greenlight - No security problems here - Seeking a compromise over controlling exports to China, the US Department of Commerce will soon allow the export of powerful Nvidia GPUs that are roughly 18 months behind its most advanced offerings, according to a person with knowledge of the plan. - The move, which would send Nvidia H200s to China, seeks to find a middle ground between those who oppose exports of any advanced AI chips and those who worry that restrictions will merely hand the market to Chinese competitors. - It also aims to satisfy the Chinese government, which has blocked imports of less powerful chips, such as Nvidia's H20. - This can be gamed ..... - OHHHH - and USA to get 25% of the sales ???? China Not With Program - China is buying soybeans again, but short of President Trump's target, according to CNBC - Really think this is a big game and will not resolve anytime soon - China still holds the cards ECO Data Starting to Flow Again - BLS to publish October PPI data with the November PPI news release on January 14, 2026 - Unemployment report released Dec 16th - This week is a little slow but next week (Dec 15-19) kick it up hard - - - Dec 19 Income and Spending , PCE report, Housing starts, Retail Sales, CPI (Nov), Leading Indicators, Philly Fed, UMich Sentiment Apple Turnover - Not the pastry - In just the past week, Apple's heads of artificial intelligence and interface design stepped down. - Then the company announced that its general counsel and head of governmental affairs were leaving as well. - All four executives have reported directly to Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook Berkshire Too - Todd Combs, one of Warren Buffett's investing lieutenants and the CEO of GEICO, is departing Berkshire Hathaway and joining JPMorgan Chase in a new role as part of a major shake-up involving both firms. - Combs is leaving Berkshire Hathaway and his role leading GEICO to run the bank's new investment group as part of its wider "security and resilience" initiative announced in October. AI Frames - Warby Parker and Google announced that the first lightweight, AI glasses developed through their partnership are expected to launch in 2026 - What will be different about these? All others have seemed to failed miserably. Mergers - Maybe - Netflix announced Friday it's reached a deal to buy pieces of Warner Bros. Discovery, bringing a swift end to a dramatic bidding process that saw Paramount Skydance and Comcast also vying for the legacy assets. - The transaction is comprised of cash and stock and is valued at $27.75 per WBD share - Others are offering $30 CASH per share - President Trump has put in his comments that he thinks it may be a tough one to clear - $2.8B breakup fee if Warner Brothers pulls out and $5.8B reverse break up fee if the deal is not approved. Oracle Earnings - Wednesday after the bell - This is the poster child for the vendor and circular financing - Stock was the darling for a minute a few months ago - Written: "The stock has fallen roughly 32-40% from its September 10 peak, erasing its "Nvidia moment" rally and turning Oracle into the primary vehicle for expressing skepticism about the AI build-out and OpenAI's economics." - Briefing analyst Forgot this... - What happened to the Tik Tok deal and the China bad discussion? --- History.... - Negotiations happened between ByteDance, Oracle, and Walmart back in 2020, and later discussions continued under “Project Texas” for U.S. data security. - The proposed structure (Oracle as tech partner, U.S. investors taking a stake) was announced but never finalized into a binding acquisition or spin-off. - Instead, TikTok remained under ByteDance ownership, while implementing U.S. data storage and security measures through Oracle. - The U.S. government extended deadlines multiple times, but no sale or transfer of ownership occurred. - China wins again! So much winning! Private Credit  - Private markets investing startup Yieldstreet, now calling itself Willow Wealth, recently informed customers of new defaults on real estate projects in Houston and Nashville, Tennessee. The letters, obtained and verified by CNBC, account for about $41 million in new losses. - They come on the heels of $89 million in marine loan wipeouts disclosed in September and $78 million in losses previously reported by CNBC. - Willow Wealth also removed a decade of historical performance data from public view in recent weeks. - Total losses? $208 million Pistachios - Dubai Craze - Milk chocolate shell filled with: - Pistachio cream (often blended with tahini for a nutty, slightly savory note) - Kadayif (shredded phyllo pastry) for crunch - Created in 2021, went viral in 2023 via the SOCH -  United States, Iran, and Turkey the biggest producers of pistachios - Argentina betting on it to continue  - adding to their farmland to cover the demand - Dubai Chocolate Bar (the viral pistachio-knafeh chocolate) generated over $50–$60 million in global sales for the year. IndiGo - In November, new Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules increased pilot rest periods. - IndiGo failed to adjust crew rosters, causing a severe pilot shortage during peak travel season. - 1000s of flights cancelled - IndiGo apologized and implemented measures like processing refunds, arranging transport/hotels for stranded passengers, and strengthening customer support. - As of this week - still having major problems - stock don 20% from its high on this news (not traded in USA) Grok Report - Using Grok as Copilot is getting a little weird....ChatGPT a little slow - Photo to video clip - pretty cool - Image generation - FAST! - Can have full on conversations and even companions.....(?) - More racy than other Ai (as is to be expected) Age 18+  options - Interesting nd impressive thus far. OMG  - Brown Nosing - Stellantis said it will bring an all-electric small “car” called the Fiat Topolino to the U.S. - The Topolino is actually categorized as “an all-electric quadricycle” rather than a car, according to Stellantis and has a top speed of roughly 28 miles per hour. - Fiat's announcement comes less than a week after President Donald Trump praised small “Kei” cars from Japan and expressed interest in bringing tiny cars to the U.S. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner) FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

In this week's episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese dig into the market's latest shift toward a potential economic reacceleration, looking at rising global yields, what the renewed steepening of the yield curve may signal, and how broadening market leadership is shaping their outlook. They go through the rebound in tech, the breakout in commodities, stubborn inflation pressures, and the mixed but still-stable labor market. With the Fed's next move approaching, Ryan and Sonu discuss what policymakers may be forced to confront as growth picks up and investors try to position through the final weeks of the year.Key Takeaways:• Global yields are climbing: The move appears driven more by improving growth expectations than by renewed inflation fears.• The yield curve is steepening: Long-term rates are rising faster than short-term ones, signaling firmer economic momentum.• Market leadership is broadening: Tech is rebounding while financials, industrials, and small caps are showing notable strength.• Commodities are breaking out: A wide range of materials is moving higher, hinting at early reflation even without oil participating.• Inflation is easing but still sticky: Price pressures remain above the Fed's comfort zone as it prepares for additional rate cuts.Jump to:0:00 – Reacceleration & Markets Setup4:55 – Global Yields, Carry Trade & Yield Curve Shifts9:13 – Bear vs Bull Steepener Explained16:40 – Tech's Streak, Market Breadth & Sector Rotation24:00 – Commodities Breakout & Late-Cycle Signals32:20 – Inflation pressures: PCE, Services & Risks38:30 – Fed Cuts, Labor Market Trends & Income StrengthConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @SonuVargheseQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Jeffrey Cleveland reacts to the Fed decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, with three dissents. He thinks unemployment will tick up and PCE will fall slightly next year, leading to the Fed funds rate lower than the median now. He doesn't see this as a hawkish cut based on the bond market reaction, but “we'll have to see how Chair Powell frames things.” He wants to know why Fed members dissented; he worries most when they all agree.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

US stocks held onto gains as the Fed countdown began, with the S&P 500 quietly rebounding to near a record high. In company news, Netflix slipped on a bumper deal with Warner Bros, while Ulta Beauty beat expectations ahead of the holiday sales period. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields edged higher following cooler PCE inflation data. In commodities, silver hit a record high on Fed rate-cut optimism, while oil prices held steady amid stalled Ukraine peace talks. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to open lower ahead of the RBA’s interest rate decision. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this conversation, Jon G. Sanchez and Jason Gaunt discuss the current state of the market, focusing on the tug of war between bullish and bearish sentiments. They analyze various economic indicators, including PCE data, consumer sentiment, and labor market dynamics, while also addressing geopolitical tensions and valuation concerns. The discussion highlights the complexities of the market environment and the factors influencing investor sentiment as they approach year-end.Chapters00:00 Introduction and Market Overview01:47 Optimism vs. Pessimism on Wall Street04:36 Bullish Sentiment and Economic Indicators07:18 PCE Data and Inflation Concerns09:46 Earnings Season and AI Trends10:12 Consumer Wealth and Economic Sentiment13:00 Looking Ahead: Bulls vs. Bears20:01 Market Overview and Economic Concerns21:36 Geopolitical Tensions and Their Impact22:55 Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators25:26 Technological Advancements and Employment27:35 Market Valuations and Investor Sentiment31:13 Disclaimer

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar ⬜ In today's update, Palvatar highlights inflation as the market's main focus ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting, with delayed PCE data likely adding early-session volatility. Softer U.S. jobless claims ease labor-market worries, while Germany's strong industrial orders and Japan's improving economic indices offer global optimism. India's rate cut supports growth, Netflix makes an $83B splash with Warner Bros., and BlackRock's bitcoin ETF faces a sixth week of outflows.

Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and Michael Santoli began the hour with a deluge of data: with PCE, Consumer Sentiment, Personal Savings and more crossing the wires. Bridgewater's former Chief Investment Strategist helped the team break it all down - before key analysis later on about what it all means for the Fed decision next week with Goldman Sach's Chief Economist. Plus: details on the deal rocking the media world today - Netflix buying Warner Brothers' film and steaming assets... Hear former DOJ Antitrust Chief Jonathan Kanter's take on whether the deal will pass regulatory scrutiny... and more on what it means for the film industry with the head of the world's largest movie theater trade group (who calls it an "unprecedented threat").  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Volatility could rise at 10 a.m. ET with the release of PCE data, but earnings news is slim. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on three-day win streaks before next week's Fed decision.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0131-1225) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

As the first trading week of December comes to a close, investors turn to next week's FOMC interest rate decision. Kevin Hincks reports from the Cboe Global Markets to explain how jobless claims and the delayed September core PCE prints pave the way for a likely hawkish cut, which bond markets are bracing for. Kevin also touches on the Netflix (NFLX) deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) for $82.7 billion and explains why investors "should be pretty patient" for the deal to pan out.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Joanne Bianco explains the risks of reaccelerating inflation ahead of Friday's PCE report, though it is anticipated to continue to moderate next year. She expects a rate cut next week from the Fed but thinks they might pause for a few months after that. Joanne is waiting to see dissensions within the Fed and the independence of various members. She also comments on the fixed income market and what traders might trend towards next year.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

En Capital Intereconomía hemos seguido en directo la apertura del Ibex 35 y del resto de bolsas europeas, en una jornada marcada por la publicación del dato de paro, que baja en 18.805 personas en noviembre. Este resultado y su impacto en el mercado laboral lo hemos analizado con Valentín Bote, director de Randstad Research. En el análisis de mercados, Pablo García (Divacons–Alphavalue) ha repasado una sesión condicionada por el dato de IPC, después de que Kocher (BCE) advirtiera de que no debe reaccionarse ante pequeñas variaciones. En EE. UU., la atención se centra en las cifras de JOLTS, el próximo PCE y las expectativas de tipos. También se ha comentado la postura del Banco de Inglaterra y la noticia de que la administración Trump respalda el intento de Bayer de limitar demandas por su herbicida Roundup, relacionadas con acusaciones de cáncer. El programa ha cerrado con el Consultorio de Bolsa junto a Javier Alfayate, gestor de fondos.

Art Hogan weighs the upcoming PCE print and jobs data to preview what the Fed's rate cut path will be. The Fed “has a window to cut at least two more times next year,” he argues. He thinks the fundamentals are “more good than bad” in the stock market. However, he thinks some of the high-beta names could be at risk for a downturn. He likes the Mag 7 minus Tesla (TSLA).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

週一天下零時差關注以下財經大事： 一、Line Pay加入電子支付戰場，會帶來什麼新變化？ 二、聯準會結束縮表，對股債市有何影響？ 三、美國通膨降不下來？12月還降息嗎？ 文： 蔡娪嫣 製作團隊：樂祈 ＊閱讀零時差，點這看全文

A widely used grease remover and dry-cleaning chemical called tetrachloroethylene (PCE) has been linked to liver fibrosis, a condition that causes scarring and loss of liver function even in people who don't drink alcohol or have obesity Researchers found that people with measurable levels of PCE in their blood were three times more likely to have liver fibrosis, and for every tiny one-nanogram-per-milliliter increase in PCE, the risk increased fivefold PCE exposure often occurs through inhaling fumes from dry-cleaned clothes, contaminated air, or drinking water, and the chemical can also enter through the skin, affecting the liver, kidneys, heart, and nervous system Long-term exposure to PCE has been linked not only to liver disease but also to nerve damage, reproductive issues, and several cancers, including those of the bladder and liver, prompting the EPA to begin phasing it out Lower your risk of liver damage by switching to solvent-free wet cleaning, letting dry-cleaned clothes air out before use, replacing household products that contain PCE, and supporting liver repair through clean nutrition, hydration, and sun exposure

Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.It's Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won't hit the Fed's 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn't over, but the worst is behind us.So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to modest growth. U.S. consumers start to rebound, but slowly. Tariffs will keep prices firm in the first half of 2026, squeezing purchasing power for low- and middle-income households. These households consume mainly through labor market income, and until inflation starts to retreat, purchasing power should be constrained.Real consumption should rise 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.8 [percent] in 2027 – better, but not booming. The main culprit is a labor market that's still in ‘low-hire, low-fire' mode driven by immigration controls and tariff effects that keep hiring soft. We see unemployment peaking at 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, then easing to 4.5 percent by year-end. Jobs are out there, but the labor market isn't roaring. It'll be hard for hiring to pick up until after tariffs have been absorbed.And when jobs cool, the Fed steps in. The Fed is cutting rates – but at a cost. After two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and October, we expect 75 basis points more by mid 2026, bringing the target range to 3.0-3.25 percent. Why? To insure against labor market weakness. But that insurance comes with a price: inflation staying above target longer. Think of it as the Fed walking a tightrope—lean too far toward jobs, and inflation lingers; lean too far toward inflation, and growth stumbles. For now the Fed has chosen the former.And how does AI fit into the macro picture? It's definitely a major growth driver. Spending on AI-related hardware, software, and data centers adds about 0.4 percent to growth in both 2026 and 2027. That's roughly 20 percent of total growth. But here's the twist: imports dilute the impact. After accounting for imported tech, AI's net contribution falls sharply. Still, we expect AI to boost productivity by 25-35 basis points by 2027, over our forecast horizon, marking the start of a new innovation cycle. In short: AI is planting the seeds now for bigger gains later.Of course, there are risks to our outlook. And let me flag three important ones. First, demand upside – meaning fiscal stimulus and business optimism push growth higher; under this scenario inflation stays hot, and the Fed pauses cuts. If the economy really picks up, then the Fed may need to take back the risk management cuts it's putting in now. That would be a shock to markets. Second, there's a productivity upside – in which case AI delivers bigger productivity gains, disinflation resumes, and rates drift lower. And lastly, a potential mild recession where tariffs and tight policy bite harder, GDP turns negative in early 2026, and the Fed slashes rates to near 1 percent. So in summary: 2026 looks to be a transition year with less drama but more nuance, as growth returns and inflation cools, while AI keeps rewriting the playbook.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Entre para o Grupo Vip da Maior Black Friday da História da Levante:https://lvnt.app/jvtu2p24/11 - Bolsa +0,30% Olá, sejam bem-vindo a mais um Fechamento de Mercado, comigo Flávio Conde e a volta de férias de Ricardo Afonso, hoje é 2a. feira, dia 24 de novembro, e sugiro assistirem o Mata-Mata: “Qual Banco Comprar: BB, Itaú, Bradesco ou Santander?” que está muito bom. O Ibovespa fechou em leve alta de 155,2 mil pontos, 0,27%, com volume médio de R$ 20 bi, exatamente nos R$ 20 bi da média das segundas de mercado em alta. As bolsas subiram bem nos EUA, Nasdaq +2,6% e Dow +0,40% - lideradas pelas ações da Alphabet, +6%, e outras ações de tecnologia com Broadcom 11%, Micro Technology 8%, Palantir, AMD, Meta e Nvidia com investidores um pouco mais animados que o Fed possa cortar os juros dia 10 de dezembro, em três semanas. As apostas por um corte de 0,25% para 3,50% de 3,75% subiram de 55% na semana passada para 77% na sexta e 85% hoje. Esse otimismo com juros e bolsas americanas ainda não chegou no Brasil, ou seja, no Ibovespa, mas deve chegar via investidores estrangeiros comprando nos próximos dias. O que pode atrapalhar tal cenário? A partir de amanhã, terça-feira, começará a divulgação de vários dados nos EUA: Temos PPI (índice de preços ao produtor), números de inflação americana, confiança do consumidor e vendas no varejo. Na quarta, o foco se volta para o IPCA-15, crucial para nós, e também para o PIB e o PCE dos EUA. O dólar comercial recuou um pouco, -0,13%, aos R$ 5,3951 de R$ 5,40 na sexta, enquanto o dólar norte-americano recuou quase nada, -0,03%, frente a moedas fortes.Os juros no Brasil recuaram bem com o Tesouro Prefixado 2032 a 13,40% x 13,46%, na sexta, e o IPCA+ 2029 para 7,75% de 7,78% a.a.Assista no vídeo as recomendações de Conde e Ricardo.

Entre 1973 y 1976 se produjo el colapso del franquismo y comenzó la transición a la democracia. El régimen, personalista y atado a la figura de Francisco Franco —que gobernaba desde 1939—, había intentado institucionalizarse mediante siete Leyes Fundamentales que configuraban un Estado católico, monárquico y corporativo, un “reino sin rey” con Franco como jefe de Estado vitalicio. En 1969 designó sucesor a Juan Carlos de Borbón, confiando en que el joven príncipe, educado en el régimen, mantendría una política continuista bajo la tutela de Luis Carrero Blanco, nombrado presidente del Gobierno en 1973 con la idea de supervisar la sucesión. El asesinato de Carrero Blanco por la organización terrorista ETA el 20 de diciembre de 1973 desmontó esos planes. El magnicidio provocó una crisis interna y evidenció la fragilidad de un sistema basado más en lealtades personales que institucionales. Aquello coincidió además con la crisis del petróleo, que puso fin al milagro económico español, disparó la inflación, incrementó el desempleo, y erosionó la principal fuente de legitimidad del tardofranquismo: la prosperidad de la clase media. Franco, ya mayor y enfermo, nombró presidente a Carlos Arias Navarro unos días después del asesinato de Carrero. Arias Navarro prometió una tímida apertura, pero la presión del sector inmovilista, conocido entonces como el búnker, y sus propias limitaciones personales y políticas paralizaron cualquier reforma real. El gobierno alternó gestos aperturistas con represión. Entretanto la oposición se organizaba: en 1974 nació la Junta Democrática impulsada por el PCE, y en 1975 la Plataforma de Convergencia Democrática que puso en marcha el PSOE. En marzo de 1976 se fusionaron en la Coordinación Democrática, bautizada como la “Platajunta”), que exigía una ruptura con el régimen, amnistía y elecciones constituyentes. Franco murió el 20 de noviembre de 1975 tras una larga agonía. Juan Carlos I fue proclamado rey dos días más tarde y mantuvo inicialmente a Arias Navarro, que formó un nuevo gabinete en el que incluyó a aperturistas como Manuel Fraga o José María de Areilza. Pero la conflictividad social les estalló en las manos forzando al rey a prescindir de Arias y a agilizar los cambios. El rey, asesorado por Torcuato Fernández-Miranda, nombró presidente del Gobierno a Adolfo Suárez, un ministro joven proveniente del régimen que parecía inofensivo para el búnker pero era manejable. Fernández-Miranda apostaba por la estrategia “de la ley a la ley”, que se materializó en la Ley para la Reforma Política. A través de ella se podía desmantelar toda la institucionalidad franquista desde dentro. La ley establecía Cortes bicamerales elegidas por sufragio universal y abría la puerta a la legalización de los partidos políticos. Las Cortes la aprobaron el 18 de noviembre de 1976 por una amplia mayoría en lo que ha pasado a la historia como el “harakiri” de las Cortes de Franco. Tras ello se convocó un referéndum que la ratificó con más del 90% de los votos a favor. De este modo, en apenas un año se liquidó jurídicamente el franquismo y quedó encarrilada la monarquía parlamentaria, algo que culminaría con las elecciones de junio de 1977 y la Constitución de 1978. El proceso, en buena medida improvisado y lleno de tensiones, logró una transición pacífica que alumbró la España actual. En El ContraSello: 0:00 Introducción 4:00 El final del franquismo 31:45 “Contra el pesimismo”… https://amzn.to/4m1RX2R 1:24:14 El punto muerto de la guerra de Cuba Bibliografía: “Historia del franquismo” de Luis Palacios Bañuelos - https://amzn.to/3LRO8ke “El franquismo: una introducción” de Giuliana di Febo - https://amzn.to/4r9UdbN “Tiempo de incertidumbre” de Carlos Blanco - https://amzn.to/4pkX2oN “El guionista de la transición” de Juan Fernández-Miranda - https://amzn.to/4ifbDQo “No había costumbre: crónica de la muerte de Franco” de Miguel Ángel Aguilar - https://amzn.to/4o9nSiP · Canal de Telegram: https://t.me/lacontracronica · “Contra el pesimismo”… https://amzn.to/4m1RX2R · “Hispanos. Breve historia de los pueblos de habla hispana”… https://amzn.to/428js1G · “La ContraHistoria del comunismo”… https://amzn.to/39QP2KE · “La ContraHistoria de España. Auge, caída y vuelta a empezar de un país en 28 episodios”… https://amzn.to/3kXcZ6i · “Contra la Revolución Francesa”… https://amzn.to/4aF0LpZ · “Lutero, Calvino y Trento, la Reforma que no fue”… https://amzn.to/3shKOlK Apoya La Contra en: · Patreon... https://www.patreon.com/diazvillanueva · iVoox... https://www.ivoox.com/podcast-contracronica_sq_f1267769_1.html · Paypal... https://www.paypal.me/diazvillanueva Sígueme en: · Web... https://diazvillanueva.com · Twitter... https://twitter.com/diazvillanueva · Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/fernandodiazvillanueva1/ · Instagram... https://www.instagram.com/diazvillanueva · Linkedin… https://www.linkedin.com/in/fernando-d%C3%ADaz-villanueva-7303865/ · Flickr... https://www.flickr.com/photos/147276463@N05/?/ · Pinterest... https://www.pinterest.com/fernandodiazvillanueva Encuentra mis libros en: · Amazon... https://www.amazon.es/Fernando-Diaz-Villanueva/e/B00J2ASBXM #FernandoDiazVillanueva #franquismo #franco Escucha el episodio completo en la app de iVoox, o descubre todo el catálogo de iVoox Originals

Dan Deming weighs in on current market dynamics, noting a significant rotation out of overvalued sectors into underappreciated areas. He cautions that next week's economic data, including PPI, PCE, and consumer confidence, could shift market sentiment. Dan also discusses the perceived overvaluation of high-flying tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Oracle (ORCL), suggesting a prolonged rotation as the market questions the sustainability of A.I. sector valuations.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Sponsored By: → Cornbread Hemp | For an exclusive offer go to cornbreadhemp.com/drg and use promo code DRG for 30% OFF your first order! Get My Brand Masterlist⁠ https://drchristiangonzalez.com/best-brands-form-2-2/ Get Dry Cleaning Guide⁠ https://drchristiangonzalez.com/dry-cleaning-pdf-request-form/ Episode Description You might think liver damage comes from alcohol or sugar. But a new USC study reveals the real threat could be hanging in your closet. If you dry clean your clothes even once or twice a month, you're exposing yourself to Perchloroethylene (PCE)—a toxic solvent now strongly linked to liver fibrosis, brain fog, cancer, and even Parkinson's disease. This isn't just a factory worker problem. For many people, routine dry cleaning is the hidden environmental exposure driving chronic health issues no doctor can explain. PCE doesn't just disappear after cleaning. It off-gasses into your home, absorbs through your skin, and accumulates in your liver and nervous system. And the majority of dry cleaners still use it. Without asking the right questions, you have no idea what chemicals are saturating the fabrics touching your body every single day. And your liver, brain, and nervous system are paying the price. In this episode, Dr. Christian Gonzalez breaks down the USC Keck study and reveals how to protect yourself from this silent toxin: • Why dry cleaning increases your odds of liver fibrosis by 3X • The neurotoxic chemical triggering brain fog, headaches, and nervous system dysregulation • The Cancer and Parkinson's link researchers are now confirming • The exact 3 questions to ask your dry cleaner today to protect your family • The PFAS trap hiding in stain-proof and wrinkle-free fabrics (forever chemicals that never leave your body) • How PCE contaminates local groundwater and creates toxic exposure for entire communities This episode goes beyond your closet. It's a wake-up call about the pervasive, invisible toxins lurking in everyday life—and how to take action now to protect your liver, stabilize your nervous system, and reclaim your health. Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro 1:21 - USC Study: PCE Chemical Increases Liver Fibrosis Risk 5x 4:00 - Real Patient Case: Bladder Cancer from Living Above Dry Cleaner 6:22 - What Actually Happens During Dry Cleaning Process 8:12 - Alternative Solvents: Are "Green" Cleaners Actually Safe? 10:21 - PFAS Forever Chemicals in Stain-Resistant Treatments 11:28 - How Dry Cleaning Chemicals Enter Your Body 14:08 - Symptoms of Chemical Exposure: Brain Fog to Liver Damage 16:34 - Questions to Ask Your Dry Cleaner Right Now 19:00 - Safer Alternatives: Professional Wet Cleaning Explained 21:08 - Action Steps to Protect Your Health Today

Medio millón de españoles huyeron del país en 1939. Otros dos millones emigraron después para ganarse la vida en Europa y por causas políticas. Hoy viven en España nueve millones de personas de origen extranjero que han llegado a nuestro país por razones económicas o buscando refugio. Isabel Jiménez analiza esta transformación con la ayuda de dos voces separadas por medio siglo: la de Julia Hidalgo, militante del PCE y exiliada política, y Abdulaye Traoré, refugiado en España tras huir de Mali.Escuchar audio

En la semana en la que estamos revisitando nuestra historia, ese 20 de noviembre de 1975 cuando murió Francisco Franca en la cama, no derrocado, sino por vejez, se estrena una serie, ‘Anatomía de un instante', un encargo de Movistar Plus a Alberto Rodríguez, director que en su cine ha tratado de varias maneras los claroscuros de la Transición. La ficción, que estrena Movistar Plus, es una adaptación de la novela de Javier Cercas sobre el Golpe de Estado del 23F, que ocurrió unos años más tarde la muerte del director, en 1981. Centrada en cuatro capítulos, uno dedicado a cada personaje y el último al juicio, la serie explora cómo se llegó a esa situación a través de la poderosa instantánea de los tres hombres que no se escondieron bajo sus asientos cuando el golpista Tejero irrumpió en el Congreso. El primero se centra en Adolfo Suárez y cómo un falangista de provincias llegó a la televisión pública y luego a la presidencia del Gobierno. El segundo narra esos años en la vida de Santiago Carrillo, líder del PCE, al que interpreta Eduard Fernández, y el tercero, muestra la historia del general Gutiérrez Mellado, al que interpreta Manolo Solo.De la serie sorprende la facilidad con la que los actores logran que nos olvidemos de los personajes reales, tan icónicos y tan familiares con varias generaciones. Y gran parte del mérito es del Adolfo Suárez que logra componer Álvaro Morte. El actor, popular por ‘La casa de papel' y otras series, está fantástico con una interpretación medida en la que cambia ligeramente la voz, lleva otra nariz y sabe sacar partido al carisma del expresidente en público. En este episodio especial por el estreno de la serie, charlamos con él, pero también con las directoras de casting Eva Leira y Yolanda Serrano, que fueron a Londres a hacerle una prueba para confirmar la intuición inicial, y con Fernando Garcia, estilista de vestuario en cine que tuvo que encontrar los trajes y complementos para hacer a todos los personajes creíbles. 

去年秋天，特朗普在总统竞选阶段允诺下不少经济政策。现在回顾，这些允诺兑现得如何了？ 把各国都得罪了一遍的关税果真让制造业回流了吗？为什么说「大而美法案」是特朗普固定自己政治遗产的手段？而当美国政府越发重视产业政策，甚至开始以股东的身份介入产业、左右企业决策时，这种被美国媒体称为是「国家资本主义」的转向，又意味着什么？ 这一期，我们和老朋友周玖洲一起，复盘特朗普竞选成功一周年的经济实验：兑现的承诺、意料之外的后果，以及受此影响可能正在被重塑的美国经济秩序。 本期人物 周玖洲 Aaron，资深投资人 &「不止金钱」、「涉市未深」主播 徐涛，声动活泼联合创始人 主要话题 [11:40] 关税提高了，美国本土的制造业回流了吗？ [19:49] 「大而美法案」：谁的钱变多了，谁的钱变少了，赤字解决了吗？ [33:26] 华尔街日报为什么说这是「美国特色的国家资本主义」？ [54:29] 美国的就业数据居然是不准确的？ 延伸阅读 玖洲的播客：涉市未深 (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/64f179eaa7acfd652eb2ae80) 不止金钱 (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/65a625966d045a7f5e0b5640) PCE 指数（personal consumption expenditure price index） (https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%80%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%B6%88%E8%B2%BB%E6%94%AF%E5%87%BA%E7%89%A9%E5%83%B9%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B8) 以美国经济分析局国民收入与生产统计中国民生产总值（GDP）之最大构成项目 —— 个人消费支出（personal consumption expenditure，PCE）计算得出 All in Podcast (https://www.youtube.com/@allin) 往期节目 #356 看似遥远的债务危机和赤字，对普通人意味着什么 (https://etw.fm/2174) 给声东击西投稿 当下，AI 越来越多地出现在了招聘的过程中，企业在用 AI 筛简历、做面试，求职者也在用 AI 润色简历、模拟回答……AI 智斗 AI 的场景正在上演。 无论你是招人的 HR，还是正在找工作的应聘者，又或是相关 AI 技术的开发者，如果你经历过类似的场景，或者有相关的经历想要分享或吐槽，都欢迎你给我们投稿！投稿方式在节目的 shownotes 和评论区中可以找到，期待你的来信！ 你的声音可能出现在未来的节目当中，我们非常期待你的分享！ 投稿入口 (https://eg76rdcl6g.feishu.cn/share/base/form/shrcne1CGVaSeJwtBriW6yNT2dg) 你也可以直接通过邮箱直接联系节目组：kexuan@shengfm.cn 「Knock Knock 世界｜秋季敲门版」上线啦！ Untitled https://media24.fireside.fm/file/fireside-uploads-2024/images/8/8dd8a56f-9636-415a-8c00-f9ca6778e511/hlqVv_ii.png 新学期伊始，我们特别推出了「Knock Knock 世界｜秋季敲门版」，每期 10 分钟，和青少年一起解读一个全球新鲜事，话题涉及社会、科技、商业、文化。 - 更新时间：整个秋季学期，从 9 月 1 日开始到 1 月 30 日 - 期数：60 期 - 售价：179 元 前三期依然可以免费收听，其中包括我们在线下选题会和少年听友们一起制作的两期正式节目。点击收听：https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/6899a9e12540fdafbd245d41 已经购买了「Knock Knock 世界」的朋友们无需重复购买，秋季敲门版里的节目是全年节目的一小部分。不过，也欢迎把秋季敲门版分享给更多志同道合的新朋友，我们也为每一位帮助我们成功邀请的老听友准备了一份专属礼物！感兴趣的朋友可以点击链接收听。 加入我们 声动活泼目前开放【商业发展经理、节目监制，以及内容实习生（可远程）、早咖啡实习生、商业实习生和运营实习生】岗位，详情点击招聘入口：加入声动活泼（在招职位速览） (https://eg76rdcl6g.feishu.cn/docx/XO6bd12aGoI4j0xmAMoc4vS7nBh)，点击相应链接即可查看岗位详情及投递指南。 Untitled https://media24.fireside.fm/file/fireside-uploads-2024/images/8/8dd8a56f-9636-415a-8c00-f9ca6778e511/1TCNqViU.jpg 幕后制作 监制：可宣 内容实习生：飞扬 后期：赛德 运营：George 设计：饭团 商务合作 声动活泼商业化小队，点击链接可直达商务会客厅（商务会客厅链接：https://sourl.cn/QDhnEc ），也可发送邮件至 business@shengfm.cn 联系我们。 关于声动活泼 「用声音碰撞世界」，声动活泼致力于为人们提供源源不断的思考养料。 我们还有这些播客：不止金钱（2024 全新发布） (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/65a625966d045a7f5e0b5640)、跳进兔子洞第三季（2024 全新发布） (https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/podcast/666c0ad1c26e396a36c6ee2a)、声东击西 (https://etw.fm/episodes)、声动早咖啡 (https://sheng-espresso.fireside.fm/)、What's Next｜科技早知道 (https://guiguzaozhidao.fireside.fm/episodes)、反潮流俱乐部 (https://fanchaoliuclub.fireside.fm/)、泡腾 VC (https://popvc.fireside.fm/)、商业WHY酱 (https://msbussinesswhy.fireside.fm/) 欢迎在即刻 (https://okjk.co/Qd43ia)、微博等社交媒体上与我们互动，搜索 声动活泼 即可找到我们。 也欢迎你写邮件和我们联系，邮箱地址是：ting@sheng.fm 获取更多和声动活泼有关的讯息，你也可以扫码添加声小音，在节目之外和我们保持联系！ 声小音 https://files.fireside.fm/file/fireside-uploads/images/8/8dd8a56f-9636-415a-8c00-f9ca6778e511/hdvzQQ2r.png Special Guest: 周玖洲 Aaron.

In the second of a two-part episode, Morgan Stanley's chief economists talk about their near-term U.S. outlook based on tariffs, labor supply and the Fed's response. They also discuss India's path to strong economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Mike Gapen, Chetan Ahya and Jens Eisenschmidt, who cover the U.S., Asia, and Europe respectively. We talked about... Well, we didn't get to the U.S. We talked about Asia. We talked about Europe. Today, we are going to focus on the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world. It's Wednesday, October 1st at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10 pm in Hong Kong. All right, gentlemen. So yesterday we talked a lot about China, the anti-involution policy, and what's going on with deflation there. Talked a little bit about Japan and what the Bank of Japan is doing. We shifted over to Europe and what the ECB is doing there – there were lots of questions about deflation, disinflation, whether or not inflation might actually pick up in Japan. So, [that] was all about soft inflation. Mike, let me put you on the spot here, because things are, well, things are a little bit different in the U.S. when it comes to inflation. A lot of attention on tariffs and whether or not tariffs are going to drive up inflation. Of course, inflation, the United States never got back to the Fed's target after the COVID surge of inflation. So, where do you see inflation going? Is the effect of tariffs – has that fully run its course, or is there still more entrained? How do you see the outlook for inflation in the U.S.? Michael Gapen: Yeah, certainly a key question for the outlook here. So, core PCE inflation is running around 2.9 percent. We think it can get towards 3, maybe a little above 3 by year end. We do not think that the economy has fully absorbed tariffs yet; we think more pass through is coming. The President just announced additional tariffs the other day. We had them factored into our baseline. I think it's fair to say companies are still figuring out exactly how much they can pass through to consumers and when. So, I think the year-on-year rate of inflation will continue to move higher into year end. Hit 3 percent, maybe a little bit above. The key question then is what happens in 2026. Is inflation driven by tariffs transitory – the famous T word; and the year-on-year rate of inflation will come back down? That's what the Fed's forecast thinks; we do as well. But as everyone knows, the Fed has started to ease policy to support the labor market. The economy has performed pretty well, so there's a risk maybe that inflation doesn't come down as much next year. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so tariffs are clearly a key policy variable that can affect inflation. There's also been immigration restriction, to say the least, and what we saw coming out of COVID – when people were reluctant to go back to work, and businesses were reporting lots of shortages of workers – is that in certain services industries, we saw some pressure on prices. So, tariffs mostly affect consumer goods prices. Is there a contribution from immigration restriction onto overall inflation through services? Michael Gapen: I think the answer is yes; and I hesitate there because it's hard to see it in real time. But it is fair to say the average immigrant in the U.S. is younger. They have higher rates of labor force participation. They tend to reside in lower income households. So, they're labor supply heavy in terms of their effect on the economy. And yes, they tend to have larger relative presence in construction and manufacturing. But in terms of numbers, a lot of immigrants work in the service sector, as you note. And services inflation has been to the upside lately, right? So, the surprise has been that goods inflation maybe hasn't been as strong. The pass through from tariffs has been weaker. But in terms of upside surprises in inflation, it's common services and in many cases, non-housing related services. So, I'd say there's maybe some nascent signs that immigration controls may be keeping services prices firmer than thought. But may be hard to tie that directly at the moment. So, it's easier to say I think immigration controls may prevent inflation from coming down as much next year. It's not altogether clear how much they're pushing services inflation up. I think there's some evidence to support that, and we'll have to see whether that continues. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so we're seeing higher costs and higher prices from tariffs. We're seeing less labor supply when it comes to immigration. Those seem like a recipe for a big slowdown in growth, and I think that's been your forecast for quite some time – is that the U.S. was going to slow down a lot. Are we seeing that in the data? Is the U.S. economy slowing down or is everything just fine? How are you thinking about it? And what's the evidence that there's a slowdown and what are maybe the counterarguments that there's not that much of a slowdown? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the data doesn't support much of a slowdown. So yes, the economy did moderate in the first half of the year. I think the smart thing to do is average through Q1 and Q2 outcomes [be]cause there was a lot of volatility in trade and inventories. If you do that, the economy grew at about a 1.8 percent annualized rate in the first half of the year, down from about 2.5 percent last year. So, some moderation there, but not a lot. We would argue that that probably isn't a tariff story. We would've expected tariffs and immigration policies to have greater downward pressure on growth in the second half of the year. But to your question, incoming data in the third quarter has been really strong, and we're tracking growth somewhere around 3 percent right now.So, there's not a lot of evidence in hand at present that tariffs are putting significant downward pressure on growth. Seth Carpenter: So those growth numbers that you cite are on spending, which is normally the way we calculate things like GDP, consumption spending. But the labor market, I mean, non-farm payroll reports really have been quite weak. How do you reconcile that intellectual tension on the one hand spending holding up? On the other hand, that job creation [is] pretty, pretty weak. Michael Gapen: Yeah. I think the way that we would reconcile it is when we look at the data for the non-financial corporate sector, what appears to be clear is that non-labor costs have risen and tariffs would reside in that. And the data does show that what would be called unit non-labor costs. So, the cost per unit of output attributable to everything other than labor that rose a lot. What corporates apparently did was they reduced labor costs. And they absorbed some of it in lower profitability. What they didn't do was push price a lot. We'll see how long this tension can go on. It may be that corporates are in the early stages of passing through inflation, so we will see more inflation further out in a slowdown in spending. Or it may be that corporates are deciding that they will bear most of the burden of the tariffs, and cost control and efficiencies will be the order of the day. And maybe the Fed is right to be worried about downside risk to employment. So, I reconcile it that way. I think corporates have absorbed most of the tariff shock to date, and we're still in the early stages of seeing whether or not they will be able to pass it along to consumers. Seth Carpenter: All right, so then let's think about the Fed, the central bank. Yesterday, I talked to Chetan about the Bank of Japan. There reflation is real. Talked to Jens yesterday about the ECB where inflation has come down. So, those other developed market economies, the prescriptions for monetary policy are pretty straightforward. The Fed, on the other hand, they're in a bit of a bind in that regard. What do you think the Fed is trying to achieve here? How would you describe their strategy? Michael Gapen: I would describe their strategy as a recalibration, which is, I think, you know, technical monetary policy jargon for – where their policy stance is now; is not correct to balance risks to the economy. Earlier this year, the Fed thought that the primary risk was to persistent inflation. Boy, the effective tariff rate was rising quickly and that should pass due to inflation. We should be worried about upside risk to inflation. And then employment decelerated rapidly and has stayed low now for four consecutive months. Yes, labor supply has come down, but there's also a lot of evidence that labor demand has come down. So, I think what the Fed is saying is the balance of risks have become more balanced. They need to worry about inflation, but now they also need to worry about the labor market. So having a restrictive policy stance in their mind doesn't make sense. The Fed's not arguing – we need to get below neutral. We need to get easy. They're just saying we probably need to move in the direction of neutral. That will allow us to respond better if inflation stays firm or the labor market weakens. So, a recalibration meaning, you know, we think two more rate cuts into year end get a little bit closer to neutral, and that puts them in a better spot to respond to the evolving economic conditions. Seth Carpenter: All right. That makes a lot of sense. We can't end a conversation this year about the Fed, though, without touching on the fact that the White House has been putting a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve trying to get Chair Powell and his committee to push interest rates substantially lower than where they are now. Michael Gapen: You've noticed? Seth Carpenter: I've noticed. From my understanding, a lot of people in markets have noticed as well. There's been some turnover among policy makers. We have a new member of the Board of Governors of the Fed. This discussion about Federal Reserve independence. How do you think about it? Is Chair Powell changing policy based on political pressure? Michael Gapen: I don't think so. I think there's enough evidence in the labor market data to support the Fed's shift in stance. We have certainly highlighted immigration controls, what they would mean for the labor force. And how that means even a slowing, growing economy could keep the unemployment rate low. But it's also fair to say labor demand has come down. If labor demand were still very strong, you might see job openings higher, you might see vacancies higher. You may even see faster wage growth. So, I think the Fed's right to look at the labor market and say, ‘Okay, on the surface, it looks like a no hire, no fire labor market. We can live with that, but there are some layoffs underneath. There are signs of weakness. Slack is getting created slowly.' So, I think the Fed has solid ground to stand on in terms of shifting their view. But you're right, that looking forward into 2026 with the end of Powell's term as chair and likely turnover in other areas of the board. Whether the Fed maintains a conventional reaction function or one that's perhaps more politically driven remains an open question – and I think is a risk for investors. Seth Carpenter: I want to change things up a lot here. Chetan, yesterday you and I talked about China. We talked about Japan. Two really big economies that I think are well known to investors.Another economy in Asia that you cover is India. For a long time, we have said India was going to be the fastest growing major economy in the world. Do you still see it to be the case? That India's got a really bright growth outlook? And in the current circumstance with tariffs going on, how do you think India is fairing vis-a-vis U.S. tariffs? Chetan Ahya: So yes, Seth, we are still optimistic about India's growth outlook. Having said that, you know, there are two issues that the economy has been going through. Number one is that the domestic demand had slowed down because of previous tightening of fiscal and monetary policies. And at the same time, we have now seen this trade tensions, which will slow global trade. But also, directly India will be affected by the fact that the U.S. has imposed 50 percent tariff on close to 60 percent of India's exports to the U.S. So, both these issues are affecting the outlook in the near term. We still don't have clarity on what happens on trade tensions, but what we have seen is that the government has really worked quite hard to get the economy going from domestic demand perspective. And so, they have taken up three sets of policy actions. They have reduced household income tax. The central bank has cut interest rates because inflation has been in control. And at the same time, they have now just recently announced reduction in Goods and Services Tax, which is akin to like consumption tax. And so, these three policy actions together we think will drive domestic demand growth from the fourth quarter of this year itself. It will still be not back up to strong growth levels. And for that we still need that solution to trade policy uncertainty. But I think there will be a significant recovery coming up in the next few months. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks for that, Chetan. It's such an interesting story going on there in India. Well, Michael, Chetan, thank the three of you for joining me today in this conversation. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump is imposing tariffs on the rest of countries to bring manufactures back to this the US. The US economy is growing the Fed is going to try to stop the growth by pushing back on the rate cut. The Fed inflation detector shows no sign of runaway inflation. Trump is now pushing the narrative to fire Powell, leverage is the name of the game. The [DS] is panicking, Trump and team are now indicting those who are treasonous to this country. The started out with the lying, he is testing the waters, testing the judges building the narrative for the people of this country. The [DS] players are pushing back by using Antifa. These will intensify over time and Trump will counter the insurgency/insurrection with the military. The military is the only way, buckle up.   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");  Trump Imposes 25% Tariff On Imported Heavy Trucks Starting Oct. 1 Deborah Elms of the Hinrich Foundation said the sweeping tariffs leave major questions unanswered, including whether they comply with existing trade agreements, but predicted they would “almost certainly drive up prices for American buyers.” Source: zerohedge.com Mexico is the largest supplier of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to the U.S., followed by Canada, Japan, Germany, and Turkey. Heavy-truck shipments from U.S. plants climbed from a low of $1.1 billion in April 2020 to $3.2 billion this July, though they have dipped modestly this year, Federal Reserve data shows.   Fed cautious on rate cuts as GDP surges; warns of potential inflation risks Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that the central bank will weigh the GDP numbers carefully as it considers future rate cuts. “If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later,” Powell said. Source:  13wham.com  Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Shows No Sign Of Runaway Tariff Costs, As Savings Rate Slides  After a modest increase two months ago, and a steady print in July, analysts expected headline PCE to be steady at +2.6% YoY in August and Core PCE - the Fed's favorite indicator - to also be unchanged at 2.9% YoY... and the numbers all came in right in line with expectations. Indeed, "as expected" is the them of this morning's data with headline and Core PCE both matching expectations and staying in the same range they have been in for two years... not exactly the Trump Tariff terror future that every "respected" economist predicted. All those expecting a bounce in Durable Goods inflation will have to wait another month: in August it actually declined again, as did Nondurable Goods, while Services costs increased the most.  On the income side, there was more good news: after outpacing the private sector for nearly three years, wage growth of private workers (5.0% YoY) is once again rising faster than government workers. In fact, government worker wage growth of 4.2% was the lowest since August 2021.   Source: zerohedge.com    Political/Rights BREAKING: Sinclair Caves, Will Bring Jimmy Kimmel's Show Back 

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe entire green new scam has failed, take Spain for instance the grid cannot function correctly with wind and solar power. The Fed is screwed no matter what they do, if they drop the rates Trump is right, if they keep the rates the same and the economy degrades, Trump was right again. The [DS]/Obama are trying to start a civil/race war. Obama set the narrative. The evidence is pointing to a professional who has had training or an individual who trained just for this moment. This was planned to assassinate Charlie and not a mass shooting. The [DS] wants the conservative agree. The rifle that was left behind just so happen to say trans life matter. This divide and cause anger. This is the shot heard around the world. United we are stronger not divided.   Economy Spain's Power Grid In One Chart: Net Zero Drive Pushes Economy Toward Paralysis Days before the media celebrated Spain's first full weekday powered entirely by renewables in late April, the unthinkable happened: the grid collapsed, triggering a nationwide blackout. The incident served as a stark reminder to other Western nations, including 'America First' folks, that overreliance on intermittent sources, such as solar and wind, creates not just grid fragility but also a national security risk. A new report from El País, citing data from the Association of Electric Power Companies (Aelec), based on data published by Iberdrola, Endesa, Naturgy, and EDP, warned that Spain's peninsular power grid is severely overstretched and unable to absorb additional demand. In fact, most of the country's electricity hubs have already reached their limits. Aelec data showed that 83.4% of all these power nodes in the Spanish grid are at full capacity and can no longer accept new connections. Most regions in Spain have limited spare grid capacity to accommodate new energy demand without compromising the system's stability.   The problem of grid capacity shortages arises as Europe's overreliance on intermittent sources, such as wind and solar, has left the continent's energy grid vulnerable. Source: zerohedge.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1966123629256609899 The Federal Reserve primarily uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index as its key inflation indicator when deciding whether to raise or lower interest rates, with a target of 2% annual inflation over the longer run. This measure is preferred over alternatives like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it provides a broader view of household spending patterns and accounts for changes in consumer behavior, such as substituting goods when prices rise. For policy decisions, the Fed often emphasizes the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices to better gauge underlying inflation trends While the Fed monitors other indicators like CPI for a fuller picture, PCE remains the benchmark guiding rate adjustments Political/Rights   https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/1966120051272036814  … It's not just coming from one side.” Absolute bullshit. A). January 6th was a fake setup by the Democrats and Americans were protesting a stole...