Podcasts about PCE

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan discuss upcoming market-moving events such as FedEx and Nike earnings, Fed Chair Powell's testimony, and critical economic indicators like the PCE inflation reading. The conversation also covers the market's response to escalations in Iran, implications for crude oil prices, and the broader economic impact. The episode outlines market dynamics, investor sentiment, and strategic insights amid evolving global scenarios. After the break, Dan Nathan hosts Stephanie Guild, CIO at Robinhood. They discuss the Fed meeting outcomes, expectations on interest rates, and economic impacts of tariffs and geopolitical tensions. They delve into market reactions, S&P earnings projections, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. Stephanie provides insights on tech disruptions, AI's influence on the economy, stock market valuations, and opportunities beyond the mega-cap tech stocks. They also explore the strategic operations within Robinhood, such as their new asset management service and how they're leveraging AI to enhance customer experience. The conversation highlights the adaptability required in today's market environment and Robinhood's approach to staying competitive. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest of the year. While May inflation surprised softer in both the US and Euro area, pass-through from tariffs is still expected to push US core inflation higher with core PCE rising to 3.4% on a 4q/4q basis. At the same time, the Euro area's path to 2% core HICP looks more assured after the unwind of the April Easter effect. We still think US trade policy will be net disinflationary for Europe and see a positive gap opening up between core inflation in the US and the rest of the world.   This podcast was recorded on 12 June 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5006121-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4991721-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5000178-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4993783-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) significantly impacts adults, especially those over age 60 and those with chronic conditions.In this podcast, nurse practitioners Drs. Carrico and Stevenson discuss the underestimated burden of RSV. The podcast also explores practical strategies for increasing vaccine uptake that you can apply to your practice starting today so that you can protect your patients against RSV.Listen as they discuss:The Burden of Adult RSVRSV Vaccines for Adults: Data and RecommendationsRSV Vaccine UptakePractical Strategies to Increase RSV Vaccine Uptake Faculty:Dr. Ruth Carrico is a family nurse practitioner and senior consultant with Carrico & Ramirez, PLLC focused on infectious diseases, infection prevention and control, and vaccinology.  She is based in Louisville, Kentucky and is a Professor, adjunct faculty, with the University of Louisville School Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases. Dr. Carrico has received training specific for healthcare epidemiology at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in conjunction with the Rollins School of Public Health at Emory University in Atlanta and the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA). Dr. Carrico has worked in the field of infectious diseases and infection control for more than thirty years.  Dr. Carrico also maintains a clinical practice focused on vaccines, vaccination, and immunization processes.Dr. Audrey M. Stevenson is a family nurse practitioner with over 40 years of clinical, public health, and leadership experience. Dr. Stevenson, who holds a master of public health and master of nursing degrees, received her doctorate in public health from the University of Utah. She formerly worked in public health for over 34 years and was the former Division Director of Family Health and Clinical Services of the Salt Lake County Health Department in Salt Lake City, Utah. She currently works as a consultant and teaches graduate FNP and MPH students at two universities. Dr. Stevenson is also a member of the statewide vaccine advisory board, where she collaborates on vaccine policies and recommendations for the state. Previously, Dr. Stevenson served as Vaccination Branch Director for the COVID-19 Incident Command for Salt Lake County, where she directed the vaccination strategies for 1.2 million residents of Salt Lake County. She has been a vaccine champion for over 30 years. Learn more:Download this practical infographic to help you integrate RSV vaccination into your clinical practice.https://bit.ly/43mzacqFor more information for nurses, subscribe to the PCE podcast channel on your favorite player! 

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) significantly impacts adults, especially those over age 60 and those with chronic conditions.In this podcast, nurse practitioners Drs. Carrico and Stevenson discuss the underestimated burden of RSV. The podcast also explores practical strategies for increasing vaccine uptake that you can apply to your practice starting today so that you can protect your patients against RSV.Listen as they discuss:The Burden of Adult RSVRSV Vaccines for Adults: Data and RecommendationsRSV Vaccine UptakePractical Strategies to Increase RSV Vaccine UptakeFaculty:Dr. Ruth Carrico is a family nurse practitioner and senior consultant with Carrico & Ramirez, PLLC focused on infectious diseases, infection prevention and control, and vaccinology.  She is based in Louisville, Kentucky and is a Professor, adjunct faculty, with the University of Louisville School Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases. Dr. Carrico has received training specific for healthcare epidemiology at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in conjunction with the Rollins School of Public Health at Emory University in Atlanta and the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA). Dr. Carrico has worked in the field of infectious diseases and infection control for more than thirty years.  Dr. Carrico also maintains a clinical practice focused on vaccines, vaccination, and immunization processes.Dr. Audrey M. Stevenson is a family nurse practitioner with over 40 years of clinical, public health, and leadership experience. Dr. Stevenson, who holds a master of public health and master of nursing degrees, received her doctorate in public health from the University of Utah. She formerly worked in public health for over 34 years and was the former Division Director of Family Health and Clinical Services of the Salt Lake County Health Department in Salt Lake City, Utah. She currently works as a consultant and teaches graduate FNP and MPH students at two universities. Dr. Stevenson is also a member of the statewide vaccine advisory board, where she collaborates on vaccine policies and recommendations for the state. Previously, Dr. Stevenson served as Vaccination Branch Director for the COVID-19 Incident Command for Salt Lake County, where she directed the vaccination strategies for 1.2 million residents of Salt Lake County. She has been a vaccine champion for over 30 years. Learn more:Download this practical infographic to help you integrate RSV vaccination into your clinical practice.https://bit.ly/43mzacqFor more information for nurses, subscribe to the PCE podcast channel on your favorite player! 

 In this episode of “Henssler Money Talks, we kick things off with a market update covering the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings, and ongoing trade talks impacting global markets. Then we sit down with estate planning attorney Christopher Reeves of Reeves Law, P.C. to break down the essentials of protecting and transferring wealth. From the core documents every estate plan needs — like wills and powers of attorney — to the differences between probate and non-probate assets, Chris explains it all in plain English. We dive into when and why you might need a trust, how various life scenarios affect your estate planning strategy, and how often you should a review of your plan. Whether you're married, single, have children, or just starting to think about the future, this episode offers practical insights for securing your legacy. Join hosts Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, Director of Research, and Managing Associates K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA, and D.J. Barker, CWS®, and Kelly-Lynne Scalice, a seasoned communicator and host, on Henssler Money Talks as they explore key financial strategies to help investors navigate market uncertainty. Henssler Money Talks — June 7, 2025  |  Season 39, Episode 23  Timestamps and Chapters 1:58: Trade Talks with China, PCE Deflator, and Consumer Sentiment 22:43: Interview with Christopher Reeves, Esq. Follow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Henssler Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the recent market rally and the surprisingly solid economic data that continues to confound many bearish predictions. From stock performance and inflation trends to the latest tariff drama, Ryan and Sonu break down what they believe is actually happening beneath the market's surface.Key TakeawaysMarkets Continue to Surprise on the Upside After a brief dip in April, stocks bounced back strong in May, and with only one down week out of the last six, the S&P 500 is up 1.1% YTD.Tariff Drama ContinuesA court ruling struck down President Trump's sweeping tariffs, though they remain in place for now. Ryan and Sonu dive into the latest drama surrounding tariffs, as well as the TACO trends that's bolstered many investors.Inflation Is Cooling in Key Areas Goods prices are down, shelter inflation is slowing, and real-time data suggests CPI and PCE will continue to moderate—supporting the idea that the inflation spike is behind us.No Sign of a Recession With inflation cooling and the labor market holding strong, odds of recession have retreated from what we saw earlier in the year.Financial Media Still Loves the Bear Case Ryan and Sonu note how recession headlines haven't caught up with the data. Fear sells, but facts are more bullish than many want to admit. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #EconomicUpdate #JobsReport #FedPolicy #InflationTrends #RecessionDebate #BullMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #MarketRally #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentInsights #S&P500 #HousingMarket #LaborMarket

Our Thematics and U.S. Economics analysts Michelle Weaver and Arunima Sinha discuss how American consumers are planning to spend as they consider tariffs, inflation and potential new tax policies. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity strategist.Arunima Sinha: And I'm Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics Teams.Michelle Weaver: Today – an encouraging update on the U.S. consumer.It's Tuesday, June 3rd at 10am in New York.Arunima, the last couple of months have been challenging not only for global markets, but also for everyday people and for individual households; and we heard pretty mixed information on the consumer throughout earning season. Quite a few different companies highlighted consumers being more choiceful, being more value oriented. All this to say is we're getting a little bit of a mixed message.In your opinion, how healthy is the U.S. consumer right now?Arunima Sinha: So, Michelle, I'm glad we're starting with the sort of up upbeat part of the consumer. The macro data on the consumer has been holding up pretty well so far. In the first quarter of [20]25, consumer spending has actually been running at a similar pace as the first quarter of [20]24. Nominal consumption spending grew 5.5 percent on a year-on-year basis. Goods were up almost 4 percent. Services were up more than 6 percent.So, all of that was good. What our takeaway was that we had a lot of strength in good spending, and that did probably reflect some of the pull forward on the back of tariff news. But that pace of growth suggests that there is an aggregate consumer. They have healthy balance sheets, and they're willing to spend.And then what's driving that consumption growth from our point of view. We think that labor market compensation has been running at a pretty steady pace so far. So more than 5.5 percent quarterly analyzed. PCE inflation has been running at just over 3 percent. And so even though equity markets did see some greater volatility, they didn't seem to impact the consumer at least in the first quarter of data. And so, we've had that consumer in a pretty good shape.But with all of this in the background, we know, tariffs have been in the news, and tariff fears have weighed heavily on consumer sentiment. But then tariff headlines have also become more positive lately, and consumers might be feeling more optimistic. What's your data showing?Michelle Weaver: So that really depends on what data you're looking at. We saw a pretty big rebound in consumer sentiment if you look at the Conference Board survey. But then we saw flat sentiment, when you look at the University of Michigan survey. These two surveys have some different questions in them, different subcomponents.But my favorite way to track consumer sentiment is our own proprietary consumer survey, which did show a pretty big pickup in sentiment towards the economy last month. And we saw sentiment rebound significantly for both conservatives and liberals.So, this wasn't just a matter of one political party, you know, having a change of opinion. Both sides did see an improvement in sentiment. Although consumer sentiment for conservatives improved off a much higher base. The percent of people reporting being very concerned about tariffs also fell this month. We saw that move from 43 percent to 38 percent after the reduction in tariffs on China. So, people are, you know, concerned a little bit less there. And that's been a really big thing people are watching.Arunima Sinha: Feeling better about the news is great. Are they actually planning to spend more?Michelle Weaver: So encouragingly we did also see a big rebound in consumers short term spending outlooks in the survey. 33 percent of consumers expect to spend more next month and 17 percent expect to spend less.So that gives us a net of positive 16 percent. This is in line with the five-year average level we saw there, and up really substantially from last month's reading of 5 percent. So, 5 percent to 16 percent. That's a pretty big improvement.We also saw spending plans rise across all income groups. though we did see the biggest pickup for higher income consumers and that figure moved from 12 percent to 31 percent. Additionally, we saw longer term spending plans – so what people are planning to spend over the next six months – also improve across all the categories we look at.Arunima Sinha: And were there any specific changes about how the consumers were responding to the tariff headlines?Michelle Weaver: Yeah, so people reported pulling forward some purchases, due to fear of tariff driven price increases. So, people were planning for this, similarly to what we saw with companies. They were doing a little bit of stockpiling. Consumers were doing this as well. So, our survey showed that over half of people said they accelerated some purchases over the past month to try and get ahead of potential tariff related price increases.And this did skew higher among upper income consumers. The categories that people cited at the top of the list for pull forward are non-perishable groceries, household items. So, both of those things you need in your day-to-day life. And then clothing and apparel as well, which I thought was interesting. But that's been one thing that's been in the news a lot that's heavily manufactured overseas.So, people were thinking about that. And this does align overall with our March survey data, where we asked what categories people were most concerned about seeing price increases. So, their behavior did line up with what they were concerned about in March.Arunima, your turn on tariffs now. The reason tariffs have been on consumer's minds is because of what they might mean for price levels and inflation. Throughout earning season, we heard a lot of companies talking about raising prices to offset the cost of tariffs. What has this looked like from an economist's perspective? Has this actually started to show up in the inflation data yet?Arunima Sinha: So not quite yet, and that's something that, as you might expect, we're tracking very, very closely. So, one of the things that our team did was to think about which types of goods or services were going to be impacted by inflation. And so, we think that that first order effects are going to be on goods. And we think that the effects could start to show up in the May data, but we really see that sequential pace of inflation starting to step up starting June. And then in our third quarter inflation estimate, we see that number peaking for the year. So, in the third quarter, we think that core PCE inflation number is going to be about 4.5 percent Q1-Q analyzed.Michelle Weaver: And then aside from tariffs and inflation, how are people going to be affected by a fiscal policy, specifically the tax bill that just passed the house?Arunima Sinha: So, the house version of the bill has government spending reductions that can be quite regressive for different cohorts of the consumer. So, we have, reductions around the Medicaid program, cuts to the SNAP program as well as possible elimination of the income driven loans repayment plans. So, all of these would have a pretty adverse impact on the lower income and the middle-income consumers.This could be – but will likely not be fully offset by the removal of taxes, on tips and overtime. And then on the other side, the higher income consumers could benefit from some of that increase in SALT caps. But overall, the jury is still out on how the aggregate consumer will be affected.Michelle Weaver: So, taking this all into account, the effects of fiscal policy, of tariff policy, of labor market income – what's your overall outlook on U.S. consumption for the rest of the year?Arunima Sinha: So, we recently published our mid-year outlook for U.S. economics and our forecast for consumption spending over 2025 and [20]26 does see the consumer slowing. And this is really due to three factors. The first is on the back of those greater tariffs and the uncertainty around them and the fact that we have slowing net immigration, we're going to be expecting a slowdown in the labor market. As the pace of hiring slows, you have a slower growth in labor market income. And that really is the main driver of aggregate consumption spending. And then as we talked about, we are expecting that pass through of higher tariffs into inflation, and that's going to impact real spending. And then finally the uncertainty around tariffs, the volatilities and equity markets could weigh on consumer spending; and may actually push the upper income cohorts, the big drivers of consumption spending in the economy, to have higher precautionary savings.And so, with all of that, we see our nominal consumption spending growth slowing down to about 3.9 percent by the end of this year.Michelle Weaver: Well a little unfortunate to wrap up on a more negative note, but we are seeing, you know, mixed messages – and some more positive data in the near term, at least. Arunima, thank you for taking the time to talk.Arunima Sinha: Thanks so much for having me, Michelle.Michelle Weaver: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Overview: Tune into this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss a strong comeback in the month of May for the stock market, following a very volatile April. Last week the market digested PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and all eyes remain on the future of interest rate policy and global trade deals.  Show Notes:  

The Money Wise guys kick off this week's episode with a reflection on last week's numbers from Wall Street. They report that the markets closed out May on a high note, with all three major indices posting solid weekly gains and even stronger monthly returns. The Dow rose 1.6%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.9%, and the NASDAQ led the charge with a 2% increase. For the month of May, the NASDAQ soared 9.6%, the S&P 500 jumped 6.2%, and the Dow finished up 3.9%. The team goes on to highlight the second revision of Q1 GDP and the latest core PCE reading—formerly the Fed's go-to inflation gauge. With year-over-year PCE now at 2.1%, the data suggests inflation is nearing the Fed's 2% target, igniting debate about when rate cuts may finally happen. However, the media continues its gloom-heavy narrative, with financial figures like Jamie Dimon casting shadows of stagflation and looming bond market stress, despite signs of economic resilience. Later in the show, the team does a deep dive into proper portfolio construction, because how your investments are structured can make or break your financial goals.  A Gloomy Wall Street Despite the strong performance across the markets in May, Wall Street sentiment remains surprisingly downbeat. Financial media and major voices like Jamie Dimon continue to push cautionary narratives, raising concerns about stagflation, cracks in the bond market, and long-term economic risks. Even as inflation readings like the core PCE show progress toward the Fed's target, the tone from many in the financial world leans more pessimistic than the data might warrant. It's a reminder that headlines often lag reality, and that investors need to stay focused on facts, not fear. In the second hour, the Money Wise guys discuss Equity Index Annuities. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

First Time Homebuyers Hit a Record Low With the high cost of housing and higher interest rates, people trying to get their first home dropped to a record low around 23% in 2024. The average age of the first-time homebuyer has increased 10 years over the historical average to 38 years old. The median income is now $97,000 and the first-time home buyers are coming up with an average down payment of 9% of the value of the home. Many of these young buyers are using FHA loans, which require a very small down payment and according to research roughly 30% of all FHA mortgages have a debt service ratio of over 50%. This means more than half of these buyers' incomes is going toward servicing debt. This could be a hard pill to swallow for young buyers with not much money left over for luxuries like vacations and new cars. However, if when they buy the home, they understand that if they really tighten their belts for the next three to four years, they will probably be fine. New home builders are doing what they can to try and get rid of the largest inventory of unsold homes on their lots since 2009. The median price of a new home is currently less than one percent higher than the median price of existing properties, which historically has seen a 17% premium. The home builders are using profits from their homes to buy down mortgages. Even though the 30-year mortgage was recently around 6.8%, home builders can buy these mortgages down which led buyers of new homes to a rate around 5%. Buying down these rates has cost home builders about 8% of the purchase price of the home. This reduces their profits but better than the alternative of sitting on unsold homes with a carrying cost for the builder. I don't see this situation getting better anytime soon because I'm not looking for a large decrease in mortgage rates and incomes over the next year will probably increase somewhere around 3 to 4%. We continue to believe the rapid increase in the price of homes over the last few years will not last and it will now take some time to get back to normal market. Maybe we will see a better real estate market in 2027 or 2028.   Is Bitcoin coming to your 401k? I have been concerned with bitcoin and crypto as a whole for several years for many reasons including fraud, illicit activity, and the fact that there is really no way to derive an intrinsic value for it since there is no earnings, cash flow, or anything really backing the asset class. I was disappointed to see the current Labor Department removed language that cautioned employers to exercise “extreme care” before making crypto and related investments available to their workers. They cited “serious concerns” about the prudence of exposing investors' retirement savings to crypto given “significant risks of fraud, theft, and loss.” While this isn't necessarily a full-on endorsement for placing crypto in 401k plans, it definitely seems like the administration is continuing on its path to try and normalize crypto as an established asset class. Even with this change in language I would be surprised to see a huge surge in cryptocurrencies within 401k plans. Ultimately, ERISA bestows a fiduciary duty on employers and company officials overseeing 401k investments and that means legally employers must put the best interests of 401(k) investors first and act prudently when choosing which investments to offer (or not offer). Given the extreme volatility within crypto I believe it would be a huge risk for these companies to offer it as it could open them up to lawsuits if there are major declines. We'll have to see what other changes are made as time progresses, but I don't believe crypto has any place within a 401k plan at this time.   Inflation report shows continued progress The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is also known as PCE and is the Federal Reserve's key inflation measure, showed an annual increase of just 2.1%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, showed a gain of 2.5%. Both results were 0.1% below their respective estimates. Overall, inflation has continued to cool and is now quite close to the Fed's 2% target. The question that remains is how will tariffs ultimately impact inflation? An economist from Pantheon Macroeconomics said that he believed core PCE would peak later this year between 3.0% and 3.5%, if the current mix of tariffs remained in place. I would say it is difficult to forecast the tariff impact since we don't know what will ultimately be passed on to the end consumer. It will definitely be interesting to see what numbers look like in the coming months, but ultimately, I believe most of the concerns around inflation are overblown and even if the rate for PCE is around 3%, I don't see that as being problematic for the economy.     Financial Planning: What it Means to be an Accredited Investor An accredited investor is someone who meets specific income or net worth thresholds—such as earning over $200,000 annually ($300,000 with a spouse) or having over $1 million in net worth excluding their home—and is allowed to invest in private securities offerings not registered with the SEC. These investments, which include private REITS, private equity, hedge funds, and startups, often promise high returns but carry significant risks such as illiquidity, limited transparency, and the potential for total loss. While many of these offerings are only available through fiduciary advisors—who are legally obligated to act in their clients' best interest—investors must still exercise caution. Fiduciary duty applies only in certain contexts (such as investment advice) and may not extend to related areas like insurance or commission-based products. Additionally, what qualifies as “acting in your best interest” is often subjective and open to interpretation. Working with a fiduciary does not guarantee protection, and investors should remain vigilant, ask questions, and independently evaluate any recommendation. Also, private investments aren't necessary better than public investments, so just because you qualify as an accredited investor doesn't mean you should be investing in private securities.   Companies Discussed: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN), Intuit Inc. (INTU), Target Corporation (TGT) & Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

The Fed's preferred inflation measure – PCE – coming in as expected this morning as tariff whiplash continues: Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber broke down the numbers, along with the latest on the trade front (including a live reaction from Beijing to the President's new claims China's “totally violated” their agreement with the US). Charles Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist arguing: don't watch trade, but the jobs report next week… Hear why. Plus: a look at the Fed's next steps from here according to Former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder.  Also in focus: retail wreckage, as Gap becomes the latest name to slump on big tariff impacts… Top retail analyst Matthew Boss broke down the stocks he'd buy – and avoid – here; Regeneron shares on pace for their worst day since 2011 on new drug trial results; a look at one key part of the VC economy that's coming under pressure due to policy; and more on what's driving Hamptons rental demand to low tides.  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Capping a strong month of May for stocks, Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber led off the show with market reaction to President Trump's social media post in which he accuses China of "totally" violating its agreement with the U.S. on tariffs. The president's post comes one day after a federal appeals court's temporary reinstatement of his sweeping tariffs that had been blocked by a lower court. The anchors discussed what the CEOs of Costco and Gap said about prices and tariff mitigation in connection with earnings. Also in focus: Milder-than-expected PCE inflation data, Dell earnings, Netflix's record run, How Uber shares have fared since David's interview with Elon Musk. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer 

Yesterday's head-snapping court rulings on tariffs caused confusion, which could mean cautious markets. Meanwhile, investors await today's PCE prices and consumer sentiment data.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see ​schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.(0131-0525)

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss economists cautiously cheering the court ruling striking down tariffs but then an appeals court says not so fast. Trade talks between the US and China stall again. US core PCE inflation softens to 2.5% in April as forecast. Are wealthy Americans in for a shock in the GOP tax bill? 

S&P Futures are moving slightly lower this morning as the markets await a key inflation report. Trade talks are said to be continuing, with possible announcements in June. Trump tariffs while temporarily reinstated during the appeals process, are unlikely to receive a favorable ruling. The admin has already started to pivot to different provisions of the Trade Act in an effort to retain its tariff restrictions.  President Trump will be holding a press conference today at 1:30 pm as Elon Musk steps down from his role. On the economic front today are reports on PCE & Consumer Sentiment are due out. Earnings will be a key focus today. DELL, ULTA, DELL and SCHL are higher after their reports. Next week's earnings announcements include, SAIC, SIG, DG, HPE, CRWD, DLTR, PVH, FIVE, CIEN, DOCU, LULU & AVGO

Joe Brusuelas reacts to developing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. President Trump made a Truth Social post accusing China of violating its agreement on tariffs. Joe talks about how tariff volatility will continue to weaken investor sentiment. In the bond market, he's watching the 30-year Treasury, arguing that equities will take a big hit if it reaches 5%. Joe also reacts to PCE and personal income and outlays immediately following their release.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Con Ignacio Vacchiano, country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares, analizamos la actualidad del mercado, después de que un tribunal suspendiera la aplicación de los aranceles y un tribunal de apelación revocara esta decisión. “Trump podría acogerse a otras medidas, como la ley de comercio de 1974”, asegura el invitado. Además, añade que esta medida “le va a permitir seguir negociando país con país” y “podrá tirar el balón hacia adelante 3-4 meses para ver qué es lo que pasa”. Además, el jueves estuvo marcado por la reunión entre Donald Trump y el presidente de la FED, Jerome Powell. Desde el organismo aseguran que no hablaron de política monetaria y reiteran su independencia. El Gobierno estadounidense presiona para que la Reserva Federal baje los tipos de interés, tal como volvió a confirmar la portavoz de La Casa Blanca, Karoline Leavitt. Sobre esto, el analista opina que “las presiones por parte del presidente Trump las está aguantando bastante bien”. También conocimos varios datos macroeconómicos. El PIB se contrajo al 0,2% frente al 0,3% previsto. El gasto del consumidor avanza un 1,2% frente al 1,8% esperado. Las solicitudes por prestaciones por desempleo repuntan y se colocan en 240.000. Además, hoy conoceremos el dato del PCE de abril. Sobre esto, el country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares asegura que “se espera que se baje al 2,5% interanual y que “Powell está esperando en su decisión de tipos hasta ver cómo afecta la inflación a los precios”.

Nossos sócios Gabriel Abelheira, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, o destaque foram novamente as tarifas comerciais nos EUA. Após decisão judicial que suspendia a autoridade do governo Trump para impor tarifas com base em lei de emergência, um recurso reverteu a decisão, restabelecendo a validade das medidas. Ganhou força também o debate sobre a seção 899, proposta que prevê taxação sobre rendimentos de empresas estrangeiras que operam nos EUA — o que gerou preocupação entre investidores. No campo dos dados, o PCE de abril reforçou o cenário de inflação benigna, com alta mais significativa da renda real e da poupança. Os pedidos de auxílio-desemprego vieram um pouco acima do esperado. No Brasil, o destaque foi o desgaste político em torno do IOF. A tentativa do governo de elevar a arrecadação gerou reação negativa no Congresso, evidenciando que a estratégia de aumento de impostos não é aceita pela sociedade. Na economia, o IPCA-15 surpreendeu positivamente com alívio em serviços, enquanto os dados de trabalho seguiram fortes (desemprego na mínima) e o PIB do 1º tri teve surpresa positiva na formação bruta de capital fixo, apesar da fraqueza em serviços. Por fim, a Moody's rebaixou a perspectiva do Brasil de “positiva” para “estável”. Nos EUA, os juros fecharam (vários vértices ao redor de 10 bps), e as bolsas tiveram desempenho positivo – S&P 500 +1,88%, Nasdaq +2,03% e Russell 2000 +1,3%. O resultado da NVIDIA foi divulgado, e a empresa subiu 2,92%. No Brasil, o jan/27 abriu 16 bps, enquanto o jan/35 fechou 9 bps; o Ibovespa caiu 0,58% e, o real, 1,33%. ⁠Na próxima semana, será importante acompanhar os dados de atividade e mercado de trabalho nos EUA, de atividade aqui no Brasil, e as decisões dos bancos centrais da Europa e do Canadá. Não deixe de conferir!

Kevin and Chief kick off the show with a conversation about the uncertainty in American economy, the MLB, and U.S. tariffs. Karl calls in to discuss U.S. – China trades, credit cards, and the PCE index.

Market Insights and Sovereign Debt Discussion - Dividend Cafe In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the recent market movements following a significant rise due to a delay in tariffs on the EU. He covers the Richmond Fed survey results, FOMC meeting minutes, and the implications of long-term sovereign debt yields, particularly from Japan. Brian also breaks down the ownership of US Treasury debt and the impact of foreign investments. Looking ahead, he previews upcoming economic data releases, including Q1 GDP, jobless claims, pending home sales, and PCE data. Listeners are briefed on the market's current status and forthcoming economic indicators. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:35 Economic Calendar and Market Sentiment 00:51 Impact of Trade Announcements 01:55 Sovereign Debt and Treasury Holdings 03:46 Japan's Debt and Yield Curve Control 05:43 Upcoming Economic Data and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami kick off the RiskReversal podcast with discussions on the merits of a four-day work week and housekeeping announcements including upcoming guest appearances. The episode covers a range of topics including recent market movements, the impact of geopolitical events on the market, and specific company performances like Nvidia, Salesforce, Tesla, and BYD. Economic data, including the upcoming Fed minutes, GDP, and the PCE inflation reading, is also discussed. The hosts explore the complexities of the bond market, the role of the US dollar, and the geopolitical landscape with a focus on the Ukraine conflict and China. They also touch on gold and Bitcoin's performance in the current market scenario. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Kevin Green kicks off the holiday shortened week with a full dive into the top storylines of the week. He looks at the weekend developments out of the White House, as a 50% tariff hike on the E.U. has been delayed to July 9. Meanwhile, investors are eagerly awaiting Nvidia (NVDA) out on Wednesday. But, KG also highlights this week's PCE data report as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. For the S&P 500 (SPX), KG is looking at 5940 to the upside, 5875 to the downside but cautions that the opening move will be key after a long weekend.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This week, we're diving into Bitcoin's surge to new all-time highs, with funding rates climbing, open interest nearing $100 billion, and BTC dominance holding strong at 61%. We'll explore expectations and market positioning as the major BTC Vegas conference kicks off and examine the bullish signal of the 200-day moving average golden cross. We also discuss how large Bitcoin holders are strategically managing their positions through lending and options.In markets, we compare Solana and Ethereum, including Standard Chartered's $500 SOL initiation and price target. We look at the impending arrival of SOL ETFs & ETPs and the potential for positive flows and arbitrage opportunities. For Ethereum, validators are signaling another gas limit boost, and we note the impressive TVL increase to $119.5 billion over the past month. Also in markets, we cover the COIN50 Index rebalances and its recent strong performance.On the macro front, we analyze Bitcoin demand amidst elevated bond yields, particularly focusing on Japan's significant holdings of US Treasuries. We'll provide an overview of the much-discussed "big beautiful bill" and its potential economic implications. Plus, a look at Bitcoin versus gold through the lens of their unique supply and demand characteristics. Keep an eye on key economic indicators this week with the FOMC minutes due on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and PCE data out on Friday.We also examine the trend of corporates continuing to accumulate Bitcoin, their strategies, and spotlight The Blockchain Group and Strategy. Finally, in Coinbase news, the platform has expanded its altcoin support in Germany, adding RPL, RSR, PENGU, REZ, ATH, SYRUP, PENDLE, and L3.Topics Covered:Bitcoin Bonanza: All-time highs, funding rates, open interest, 61% market dominance, BTC Vegas conference expectations, 200 DMA golden cross, large holder strategies (lending/overwriting).OnChain: SOL vs. ETH, Standard Chartered SOL $500 target, impending SOL ETFs/ETPs, Ethereum gas limit boost, TVL increase to $119.5B.Market Dynamics: COIN50 Index rebalances and strong performance.Macroeconomic Outlook: BTC demand vs. bond yields (Japan & UST focus), overview of the "big beautiful bill," BTC vs. Gold supply/demand.Key Economic Indicators: FOMC Minutes (Wednesday), Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday), PCE Data (Friday).Corporate Crypto Adoption: Continued corporate BTC buying, strategy insights, The Blockchain Group & Strategy.Coinbase News:Expansion of altcoin support in Germany (RPL, RSR, PENGU, REZ, ATH, SYRUP, PENDLE, L3)

Las bolsas europeas han comenzado la semana con fuertes subidas tras el anuncio del presidente Donald Trump de aplazar hasta el 9 de julio la imposición de aranceles del 50% a los productos de la Unión Europea tras una conversación telefónica mantenida el domingo con Ursula von der Leyen, presidenta de la Comisión Europea. En la tertulia de mercados de Capital Intereconomía, Patricia López Molina, responsable de Distribución de Iberia en GAM; Rafael Ximénez de Embún, CFA y Managing Director Iberia & Latam en Muzinich & Co.; Yago Matossian, Sales Director en AXA IM; y Lorenzo González, responsable de Iberia en DNB Asset Management, analizan la reacción de las Bolsas este aplazamiento de los aranceles, también el impacto del plan fiscal de Trump en el mercado, y la situación actual de la renta fija tras el repunte de las rentabilidades de los bonos. Además ponen el foco en dos referencias importantes para los inversores esta semana como serán dato del PCE deflactor en Estados Unidos, indicador clave para evaluar la inflación y su impacto en la economía, y los resultados que va a presentar Nvidia.

Recuo de Trump marca abertura de semana de agenda carregada, com divulgação do PCE entre destaques externos.

Tech Roars, the Fed Waits Weekend Wisdom – Unlock Your Wealth with Heather Wagenhals   Markets ended the week with a familiar split: big tech led the charge while broader sectors lagged behind. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted gains, thanks in large part to Nvidia's explosive earnings beat and bullish AI outlook. Meanwhile, investors parsed Fed minutes and adjusted expectations around upcoming rate cuts.   In this Weekend Wisdom episode, Heather Wagenhals breaks down the week's key moves—including a closer look at Nvidia's influence, market breadth concerns, and what narrowing leadership means for smart investors. She also previews next week's crucial PCE inflation report, a short trading week due to Memorial Day, and the earnings reports that could shape sentiment heading into June.   Subscribe now and prepare your mindset before Monday.   Transcript:   From Fed Calm to Tech Triumph: Keeping Your Strategy on Track   This week brought a mix of cautious optimism and steady hands as investors weighed new data on consumer spending alongside subdued inflation updates. Markets appeared comfortable with the possibility of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at upcoming meetings, boosting the broad sentiment.   “Welcome back, WealthBuilders—and those On Schedule to be a Millionaire. I'm Heather Wagenhals, and this is your Unlock Your Wealth Weekend Wisdom for Monday, May 19 through Friday, May 23, 2025.     Equity benchmarks rounded the week higher, bolstered by a blend of consumer spending data and favorable tech earnings. The Dow Jones rose nearly 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained around 1.2%, and the Nasdaq added roughly 1.4%—with tech stocks getting an extra push from upbeat forward guidance on AI and cloud services. Meanwhile, oil prices inched up to settle near $72 per barrel on resilient demand expectations, while gold dipped slightly after a calmer inflation read triggered less safe-haven buying. Bitcoin hovered around $32,000, suggesting a level of stability despite recent regulatory headlines. All eyes remained on the Federal Reserve's language surrounding interest rates, which hinted at a hold for now, calming some investor nerves. My Take     A cautiously positive tone seemed to define this week, illustrating how investor confidence can strengthen when there's some consensus about the Fed's next move. Fears of a rate hike took a backseat, and that breathing room gave growth-oriented sectors—especially tech—the momentum to climb. But remember, in investing as in life, clarity on policy doesn't eliminate risk; it simply shifts it. Keep your focus on fundamentals, diversify appropriately, and avoid chasing short-term market excitement.   What's Coming Up     Next week, be on the lookout for new housing data, which could provide additional clues about consumer resilience in a higher-rate environment. A handful of key earnings reports from retail giants will also shine a light on shifting consumer sentiment and spending patterns. On the economic calendar, jobless claims and a fresh consumer confidence reading may refine the market's outlook on whether the Fed truly stands pat at its next meeting. Stay poised for market swings as investors digest these signals and adjust portfolios accordingly.   Closing     Money Mantra (repeat in voice + show text): “I'm a strategic thinker with a clear financial plan and the commitment to see it through. Every smart choice I make today brings me one step closer to the life I desire.”   “That's your Unlock Your Wealth Weekend Wisdom. I'm Heather Wagenhals… Where we unpack the week's meaning, align your mindset for what's ahead, and build a strategy that lasts. Until next time, take deliberate action—and go out and Unlock Your Wealth today.”  

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by returning guest Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, as they dive deep into macroeconomic dynamics, market reactions, and policy shifts.Together, they examine inflation metrics, shifting recession probabilities, the role of tariffs, and the evolving landscape of productivity and AI-related capital investment. Skanda brings grounded clarity on interpreting economic data without succumbing to noise or sensationalism, offering practical insights for advisors and investors alike.Key Takeaways:PCE vs CPI for Tracking Inflation: CPI gets more attention due to its simplicity and timing, but the Fed prioritizes PCE. Skanda emphasizes that CPI may be better for gauging immediate market sentiment, while PCE is conceptually stronger for long-term economic trends.Macro Noise & Recession Probability: Macroeconomic forecasting in today's environment is fraught with uncertainty. Constant updates from institutions and media (e.g., fluctuating recession odds) highlight the need for discipline in economic modeling and scenario planning.Economic Resilience Remains Strong: Despite shocks from trade policies and tariffs, data like payroll growth and strong consumer balance sheets suggest the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound.Tariff Impacts on Inflation and Growth: Tariffs increase costs that are typically passed through to businesses and consumers; however, much depends on the magnitude. Unilateral trade policies introduce substantial risk and uncertainty for exporters and investors.AI-Driven Productivity Is Real — But Vulnerable: Capital expenditures in Q1 were strongly influenced by AI infrastructure investments. While this is currently a major tailwind for GDP and productivity, overreliance on one sector (like tech) can create future vulnerabilities if momentum shifts.Why Lower Oil Prices Haven't Translated to Relief at the Pump Oil prices are down, but gas prices haven't followed suit. Sonu dove into that topic in his recent blog: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-lower-oil-prices-havent-translated-to-relief-at-the-pump/Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Skanda:• X: @IrvingSwisher Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #Macroeconomics #Inflation #CPI #PCE #RecessionWatch #EconomicForecast #AIInvestment #ProductivityGrowth #Tariffs #FinancialMarkets #EmployAmerica #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #SkandaAmarnath

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos comentam, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, destaque para o acordo comercial entre EUA e China. Ambos surpreenderam ao anunciar uma redução significativa de tarifas, tanto pela magnitude quanto pela agilidade da decisão, o que impulsionou os mercados globais. Nos EUA, os dados de inflação vieram abaixo do esperado (CPI, PPI e preços de importação), e os componentes do PCE também sinalizam uma pressão inflacionária mais branda — criando um ponto de partida mais favorável antes de avaliarmos os efeitos das novas tarifas. Já os dados de atividade indicaram uma leve desaceleração no início do segundo trimestre. No campo político, o debate sobre o orçamento começou a ganhar força, com republicanos pressionando por cortes no programa Medicaid. O desfecho será relevante para entendermos a trajetória fiscal norte-americana. Como mencionado acima, ao longo da semana o mercado reagiu positivamente às reduções de tarifas, com bolsas globais em alta e alguns ativos, como o ouro, passando por realização. Nos EUA, os juros subiram (vértice de 10 anos +10 bps) e as bolsas avançaram: S&P 500 +5,27%, Nasdaq +6,81%, Russell 2000 +4,46%. No Brasil, os vértices longos da curva abriram (jan/35 +27 bps, jan/31 +26 bps, jan/29 +25 bps), os curtos oscilaram menos (jan/26 -6 bps, jan/27 +2 bps). O Ibovespa subiu 1,96%, o índice de Small Caps avançou 4,17% e o real ficou estável. Por aqui, destaque para a ata do Copom, que reforçou um tom mais dovish ao apontar sinais de desaceleração via mercado de crédito, sugerindo menor disposição do comitê em seguir com o aperto monetário. No campo político, o governo reiterou sua intenção de manter estímulos fiscais em meio à queda de popularidade apontada nas pesquisas. Na próxima semana, as atenções se voltam para a votação do orçamento dos EUA, os dados de atividade de abril na China e a divulgação dos PMIs globais. Não deixe de conferir!

In this episode, host Sean Grady sits down with Jim Galligan, Senior Vice President at TerraTherm, to discuss advanced thermal remediation technologies. Jim, an industry veteran with over 34 years of expertise, dives deep into thermal conduction heating (TCH), electrical resistance heating (ERH), and steam-enhanced extraction (SEE)—powerful techniques used to remediate recalcitrant contaminants like PFAS, chlorinated solvents (PCE, TCE), PCBs, dioxins, and petroleum hydrocarbons.Learn how thermal remediation effectively targets complex contaminant source zones, even beneath buildings or challenging infrastructure, and discover why depth and geology are no longer barriers. Jim dispels common myths about thermal technologies, addresses lifecycle costs compared to traditional methods like chemical oxidation, and explains critical factors such as power infrastructure and hydrogeological site characterization.Ideal for environmental consultants, remediation engineers, and project managers looking for proven strategies to achieve rapid and reliable cleanup goals. Join us as we uncover how TerraTherm is driving innovation in environmental remediation, offering sustainable solutions and unparalleled performance in treating soil and groundwater contamination.#EnvironmentalTransformation #ThermalRemediation #TerraTherm #SoilCleanup #GroundwaterRemediation #PFAS #environmentalengineering 00:00 – Introduction to the Environmental Transformation Podcast01:15 – Meet Jim Galligan: 34 Years in Thermal Remediation03:25 – Overview of TerraTherm and Its Mission06:40 – What Is Thermal Remediation? Key Technologies Explained10:55 – Thermal Conduction Heating (TCH) Deep Dive13:45 – Electrical Resistance Heating (ERH) Explained16:05 – Steam-Enhanced Extraction (SEE) Use Cases18:10 – Ideal Site Conditions for Thermal Remediation22:30 – Treating Deep Contaminant Zones: Why “Deeper Is Cheaper”25:00 – Real-World Project Examples and Case Studies29:15 – Site Selection and Design Considerations33:45 – Comparing Lifecycle Costs of Thermal vs. Chemical Treatments37:20 – Power Infrastructure Needs and Utility Coordination41:50 – Debunking Common Myths About Thermal Remediation50:10 – Regulatory Cleanup Goals and Treatment Effectiveness54:20 – Remediation of PFAS, Dioxins, PCBs, and VOCs59:30 – Thermal's Impact on Soil and Microbial Recovery1:03:00 – Thermally Enhanced Bioremediation and Future Innovations1:06:40 – How to Design an Effective Thermal Treatment System1:10:00 – How to Contact TerraTherm and Learn More

Learn what a shrinking GDP means for you. Plus: how to handle your HSA if your employer stops contributing. Is the U.S. in a recession? How do you roll over an HSA when your employer stops contributing? Hosts Sean Pyles and Elizabeth Ayoola discuss the current state of the economy and how to manage your Health Savings Account (HSA) to help you protect your finances. Joined by NerdWallet news writer Anna Helhoski and economist Elizabeth Renter, they begin with a discussion of economic indicators, offering insights into why the GDP shrank in Q1, how tariffs and inflation are affecting consumer behavior, and what signs might point to a looming recession. Then, NerdWallet health insurance expert Kate Ashford joins Sean and Elizabeth to discuss HSA rollovers. They discuss when it makes sense to move your HSA to a new provider, the tax implications of selling HSA investments, and how to avoid penalties during a rollover. Whether you're consolidating accounts or reevaluating where to keep your medical savings, this segment breaks down your options and highlights key deadlines and common pitfalls to watch out for. Learn more about how (and why) to invest with your HSA: https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/how-to-invest-hsa  In their conversation, the Nerds discuss: recession 2025, are we in a recession, GDP contraction, health savings account rollover, HSA rollover rules, economic indicators 2025, consumer sentiment index, inflation 2025, core PCE inflation, high deductible health plan, HSA transfer process, in-kind HSA transfer, trustee-to-trustee HSA rollover, capital gains taxes HSA, how to avoid HSA penalties, HSA 60 day rule, HSA rollover timeline, federal tariffs and economy, HSA investment options, HSA fees comparison, emergency fund strategy, when to move an HSA, economic impact of tariffs, HSA cash vs investment transfer, consumer confidence 2025, saving during economic uncertainty, signs of recession, HSA matching contributions ended, managing money in downturn, and investing HSA funds. To send the Nerds your money questions, call or text the Nerd hotline at 901-730-6373 or email podcast@nerdwallet.com. Like what you hear? Please leave us a review and tell a friend.

In this week's episode, our investment experts explore three major themes from the week: negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, and the labor market. We discuss how these factors affect equity and bond markets, and overall sentiment regarding the economy. We also consider if the relatively positive news from this week continues into the weeks and months ahead, or if the full negative impact of tariffs will make for a sobering summer. 01:51 – The advance estimate for the first quarter of 2025 real gross domestic product showed a 0.3% decrease, signaling the first negative quarter since early 2022. 03:02 – The Bureau of Economic Analysis released favorable data on PCE inflation, which was relatively flat month-over-month, and showed year-over-year growth of 2.3%, which was lower than both January and February. 03:57 – The labor market has a cautiously optimistic outlook based on this week's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, weekly unemployment claims, and better-than-expected growth in new nonfarm payrolls, which gave the markets a bump this morning. 09:13 – Expectations of an early rate cut in June from the Federal Reserve are falling as a result of the positive jobs report. Bond investors feel that future employment reports will be less optimistic, and are thus buying on the dip. 11:36 – Changing tax policy will likely be making news soon, especially on the question of tax-exempt status for universities, though existing bonds are unlikely to be affected. 14:09 – Equity markets hit a 20-day high following a handful of better-than-expected earnings reports this week, mostly from the technology sector.  15:34 – Volatility continues to decline from recent highs, and credit markets appear healthy as evidenced by tightening BBB versus BB credit spreads. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is the Mar-a-Lago Accord and Why Should Investors Care? | Key Private BankKey Questions: Do Cracks in the Credit Markets Mean US Corporates' Financial Health Has Cracked? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this conversation, Liz Ann Sonders interviews Dario Perkins of TS Lombard. They discuss the growing international skepticism towards U.S. policy, the implications of trade deficits and capital account surpluses, and the risks of recession in the current economic climate. They explore the Federal Reserve's reaction function in light of labor market dynamics and the political influence on monetary policy. The discussion also touches on the potential for a "Liz Truss moment" in the U.S. and concludes with a look at the bull case for the U.S. economy.Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann discuss the data and economic indicators they will be watching in the coming week.You can keep up with Dario Perkins on X or follow his podcast Perkins Vs Beamish.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresInvestors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus by calling 800-435-4000. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.  All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.  Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.  Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.  All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Currency trading is speculative, volatile and not suitable for all investors.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.BLS is the Bureau for Labor Statistics.The Sahm Rule identifies signals related to the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(0525-RV98)

Dan Nathan is joined by Dan Greenhaus , Strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management. The duo discuss recent market trends, including significant economic indicators like GDP and PCE, and delve into the impact of tariffs and trade deals on the stock market. Greenhaus offers a contrarian perspective on the current market sentiment, arguing that the potential for a shallow recession has been overstated. The conversation also touches on the durability of consumer spending, the implications of AI investment, and the potential trajectories for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Packed with valuable insights, this episode provides a thoughtful analysis of both immediate market conditions and longer-term economic forecasts. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The latest GDP calculations and PCE index tell us the U.S. economy is doing … OK. Importantly, the data doesn't point to stagflation. But the data was collected from January through March 2025, and at this point, March is old news. Also in this episode: American companies ramp up their spending on computers, Nike's struggle to move sneaker manufacturing out of Asia is a cautionary tale and Texas becomes the biggest state to send public dollars to private schools through school choice vouchers.

The latest GDP calculations and PCE index tell us the U.S. economy is doing … OK. Importantly, the data doesn't point to stagflation. But the data was collected from January through March 2025, and at this point, March is old news. Also in this episode: American companies ramp up their spending on computers, Nike's struggle to move sneaker manufacturing out of Asia is a cautionary tale and Texas becomes the biggest state to send public dollars to private schools through school choice vouchers.

A huge morning for economic data: GDP, ADP, PCE, and some consumer reads – as stocks take a leg lower on GDP's negative read.  Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber discussed the latest and what it all means for the broader markets alongside Charles Schwab's Chief Global Investment Strategist… In addition to fresh analysis across the hour on Trump's first 100 days when it comes to the broader economy, energy, and tech regulation (Why former DOJ Assistant AG for Antitrust Jonathan Kanter says more deregulation is likely). Plus: a deep-dive on the biggest earnings movers of the day, from Starbucks to Humana – and the latest from D.C., as Alphabet's CEO takes the stand in Google's DOJ antitrust trial and key tech CEOs visit the hill for a security summit.Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

The last day of April brings Microsoft and Meta Platforms results, PCE prices, and first quarter GDP. The SPX is up six days in a row on trade optimism and yields hit 3-week lows.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.(0130-0425)

Breaking news hits Morning Trade Live with PCE and pending home sales hitting the wire. Alex Coffey analyzes the slew of information and breaks it down to paint a picture for the Fed's rate cutting path. He believes pressure in the dual mandate could shift to growth.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Scott Bauer (@prospertradingacademy) is paying closer attention to the bond market movement as investors prepare for the latest PCE print. Scott says the overall macro hasn't changed as investors await clarity and certainty in tariff policy, but now with hard data coming in the inflation picture will become clearer.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

En este episodio, repasamos los temas más importantes del día: • Wall Street expectante por el PCE: Los futuros bajan con $SPX -0.1%, $US100 -0.3% y $INDU estable. El bono a 10 años cae a 4.16%. Los inversionistas aguardan los datos del PIB (+0.2% esperado), empleo ADP (+125K) y el reporte clave del PCE (+0.1% mensual y +2.6% anual esperado). • Waymo y Toyota se alían en movilidad autónoma: $GOOGL y Toyota anuncian una colaboración para desarrollar una nueva plataforma de robotaxis. El proyecto incluye a Woven by Toyota y apunta al futuro de la propiedad personal de vehículos autónomos. Llega tras pruebas de Waymo en Tokio. • Sony impulsa al Topix con rumor de escisión: $SONY sube +7.1% en Tokio tras reportes de que escindirá su negocio de semiconductores este año. Los inversionistas celebran la medida como catalizador para liberar valor dentro del conglomerado japonés. • JetBlue y United exploran nueva alianza: $JBLU y $UAL negocian un acuerdo que permitiría conectar vuelos y compartir millas sin coordinar tarifas ni horarios. La propuesta busca evitar conflictos legales como los que enfrentó la NEA entre $JBLU y $AAL. El mercado sigue atento a su evolución. Un episodio que conecta inflación, transporte autónomo, movimientos corporativos y alianzas en la aviación. ¡Dale play y no te lo pierdas!

Listen on:Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i Watch on: https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featuredChris dissects the U.S. economy's 0.3% Q1 2025 GDP contraction, driven by a 41.3% import surge to dodge Trump's tariffs. He predicts a technical recession if Q2 growth falters, citing weak job growth (62,000 jobs, per ADP) and business paralysis. Markowski notes tempered signals from Navarro and Lutnick, hinting at tariff walkbacks, but warns of volatility and inflation (3.5% core PCE) complicating Fed rate cuts. He urges truth over partisan spin, dismissing MAGA's manufacturing revival hopes. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com

Market Dynamics Update: Consumer Sentiment and Tariff Changes In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group's Newport Beach headquarters reviews the market's performance on April 29th. Key highlights include a rebound in markets following an auto tariff easement announcement from the White House, a six-day rise in the S&P 500, and a detailed analysis of current treasury yields and interest rate expectations. Brian also discusses consumer sentiment, which has hit its lowest since early 2020, analyzing its implications for market behavior. Additional updates cover job openings, specifically the Jolts number, the Case-Shiller housing index, and expectations for upcoming economic data releases, including core PCE data, private payroll numbers, and Q1 GDP preliminaries. Lastly, there's a focus on earnings reports, emphasizing the forward guidance amidst trade uncertainties. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:47 Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators 01:53 Auto Tariff Updates and Economic Calendar 02:35 Consumer Confidence and Job Openings 04:22 Housing Market and Upcoming Data 05:02 Earnings Season Insights 06:03 Conclusion and Viewer Engagement Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

S&P Futures are weakening this morning as the market heads into a key trading week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the Trump administrations tariff plan over the weekend and said that he expects a "de-escalation" with China in the short term, followed by an agreement in principle before an actual trade deal is worked out in the coming months. He is schedule to give an interview this morning at 8:00 am with CNBC. Fed officials have entered into a blackout period ahead of the upcoming Fed Meeting next week. The week ahead has a host of key economic reports due out including GDP, PCE, & Non-Farm Payrolls. Earnings Seasons is here with reports due out this week from HON, PFE, KO, V, SBUX, MSFT, META QCOM, AMGN, AAPL & AMZN.

Stocks are set for a make-or-break week as earnings and economic data flood in, including GDP, PCE, and jobs numbers. The S&P 500 (SPX) is testing a key resistance level around $5575 amid a volatile April, and Kevin Green says a close above that level on strong volume could give bulls more confidence in a rally. Meanwhile, Boeing (BA) shares are up after an upgrade from Bernstein, which sees the company making progress on its 787 program and improving its business.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Jason and Charles Goyette discuss the current political climate, the implications of tariffs and trade wars, and the potential for significant changes in government spending and taxation. They also explored the impact of technology on the economy, the concept of currency competition, and the potential for a global financial crisis due to increasing national debt, inflation, and interest rates. The conversation concluded with a discussion on the potential for a global financial crisis and the need for regulatory reform to boost American businesses. #Economics #Inflation #TradeWars #Tariffs #GoldAndSilver #CryptoCurrency #Bitcoin #DollarDevaluation #FederalReserve #GovernmentSpending #RealEstate #Immigration #Regulation #TermLimits #TrumpAdministration   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses the market's shifting perception of risk and what's behind some unusual patterns in fund flows among asset classes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. No investment recommendation is made with respect to any of the ETFs or mutual funds referenced herein. Investors should not rely on the information included in making investment decisions with respect to those funds. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist. Today I want to look at how investors are playing defense amid elevated macro uncertainty.It's Tuesday, April 22, at 10am in New York.So, the last three weeks have brought intense volatility to global markets, and investors have had to reexamine their relationship with risk. Typically, in times like these, mutual fund and ETF flows from stocks into bonds serve as a clear gauge of investor defensiveness. But this pattern hasn't really been informative this time around.Instead, flows to gold – rather than bonds – have been the clearest evidence of flight-to-quality most recently. Between April 3rd and 11th almost US$5 billion went into gold ETFs globally, one of the strongest seven-day net flow stretches ever. There's been US$22 billion of net inflows to gold ETFs with assets under management totaling about US$250 billion year-to-date. Of the 10 days of the highest net inflows to gold ETFs over the last 20 years, three occurred in the last month.Cash also benefited from the dash to defensives, with over US$100bn flowing into money market funds year-to-date. And we expect that reallocating to cash will be a theme for the rest of the year for many reasons. For one, our U.S. economists expect no Fed cuts in 2025 and back-loaded cuts in 2026 following a projected surge in core PCE inflation from tariffs. This means that money market fund yields should stay higher for longer. And with investors seeing the wild gyrations in safe government bonds in recent weeks, money market funds' low volatility offer a strong risk/reward argument over holding Treasuries. For another, let's say our economists' base case is incorrect, and we do get steep cuts from the Fed sooner rather than later. That probably means we're on the brink of a recession; and in that situation, cash is king.You know what's been particularly surprising in the middle of this recent flight to quality? Outflows from high-grade US fixed income. These outflows are notable because U.S. Treasuries, Agency mortgages, and investment grade credit are usually seen as low-beta and defensives. But U.S. high-grade bonds saw net outflows of approximately US$1.4bn during the week of April 7th. These are the largest outflows since the pandemic; and we think that this trend can continue.So we need to ask ourselves if this is the end of American exceptionalism. And are we seeing a rotation from U.S. assets into rest-of-the-world?The answer may surprise you, but despite the outflows in U.S. bonds, there hasn't really been a persistent rotation out of U.S. risk assets and into rest-of-world markets. At least not a lot of evidence in the data yet. U.S. equity investors still have a strong home bias, and we've seen continued net buying from Japanese and euro area investors of foreign equities – at least some of which are U.S. equities. We think investors should stay defensive amid the current uncertainty. But figuring out what's actually defensive has been challenging. This recent turmoil in the global markets suggests that the investors' shifting idea of what's risky is a risk in itself. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

As market turmoil continues, our global economists give their view on the ramifications of the Trump administration's tariffs, and how central banks across key regions might react.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's, Global Chief Economist, and today we're going to be talking tariffs and what they mean for the global economy.It's Monday, April 7th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: It's 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And it's 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: And so, I'm here with our global economists from around the world: Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. So, let's jump into it. Let me go around first and ask each of you, what is the top question that you are getting from investors around the world?Chetan?Chetan Ahya: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: Jens?Jens Eisenschmidt: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: Mike?Michael Gapen: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: All right. Well, that seems clear. Before we get into the likely effects of the tariffs, maybe each of you could just sketch for me where you were before tariffs were announced. Chetan, let me start with you. What was your outlook for the Chinese economy before the latest round of tariff announcements?Chetan Ahya: Well Seth, working with our U.S. public policy team, we were already assuming a 15-percentage point increase on tariffs on imports from China. And China also was going through some domestic challenges in terms of high levels of debt, excess capacities, and deflation. And so, combining both the factors, we were assuming China's growth will slow on Q4 by Q4 basis last year – from 5.4 percent to close to 4 percent this year.Jens, what about Europe? Before these broad-based tariffs, how were you thinking about the European economy?Jens Eisenschmidt: We had penciled in a slight recovery, not really getting us much beyond 1 percent. Backdrop here, still rising real wages. We had some tariffs in here, on steel, aluminum; in cars, much again a bit more of a beefed-up version if you want, of the 18 tariffs – but not much more than that. And then, of course, we had the German fiscal expansion that helped our outlook to sustain this positive growth rates into 2026.Seth Carpenter: Mike, for you. You also had thought that there were going to be some tariffs at some point before this last round of tariffs. Maybe you can tell us what you had in mind before last week's announcements.Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth. We had a lot of tariffs on China. The effective rate rising to say 35 to 40 percent. But as Jens just mentioned, outside of that, we had some on steel and aluminum, and autos with Europe, but not much beyond that. So, an effective tariff rate for the U.S. that reached maybe 8 to 9 percent.We thought that would gradually weigh on the economy. We had growth at around 1.5 percent this year and 1 percent next year. And the disinflation process stopping – meaning inflation finishes the year at around 2.8 core PCE, roughly where it is now. So, a gradual slowdown from tariff implementation.Seth Carpenter: Alright, so a little bit built in. You knew there was going to be something, but boy, I guess I have to say, judging from market reactions, the world was surprised at the magnitude of things. So, what's changed in your mind? It seems like tariffs have got to push down the outlook for growth and up the out outlook for inflation. Is that about right? And can you sketch for us how this new news is going to affect the outlook?Michael Gapen: Sure. So instead of effective tariff rates of 8 to 9 percent, we're looking at effective tariff rates, maybe as high as 22 percent.Seth Carpenter: Oh, that's a lot.Michael Gapen: Yeah. So more than twice what we were expecting. Obviously, some of that may get negotiated down. Seth Carpenter: And would you say that's the highest tariff rate we've seen in a while?Michael Gapen: At least a century. If we were to a 1.5 percent on growth before, it's pretty easy to revise that down, maybe even a full percentage point, right?So you're, it's a tax on consumption and a tariff rate that high is going to pull down consumer spending. It's also going to lead to even much higher inflation than we were expecting. So rather than 2.8 for core PCE year-on-year, I wouldn't be surprised if we get something even in the high threes or perhaps even low fours.So, it pushes the economy, we would say, at least closer to a recession. If not, you're getting closer to the proverbial coin toss because there are the potential for a lot of indirect effects on business confidence. Do they spend less and hire less? And obviously we're seeing asset markets melt down. I think it's fair to describe it that way. And you could have negative wealth effects on the upper income consumers. So, the direct effects get you very modest growth a little bit above zero. It's the indirect effects that we're worried about.Seth Carpenter: Wow, that's quite a statement. So, a substantial slowdown for the U.S. Flirting with no growth. And then given all the uncertainty, the possibility that the U.S. actually goes into recession, a real possibility there. That feels like a big call.Jens, if the U.S. could be on the verge of recession with uncertainty and all of that, what are you thinking about Europe now? You had talked about Europe before the tariffs growing around 1 percent. That's not that far away from zero. So, what are you thinking about the outlook for Europe once we layer in these additional tariffs? And I guess every bit is important. Do you see retaliatory tariffs coming from the European Union?Jens Eisenschmidt: No, I think there are at least three parts here. I totally agree with that framing. So, first of all, we have the tariffs and then we have some estimates what they might mean, which, just suppose what we have heard last week sticks, would get us already in some countries into recessionary territory; and for the aggregate Euro area, not that far from it. So, we think effects could range between 60 and 120 basis points of less growth. Now that to some extent, incorporates retaliation. And so, the question is how much retaliation we might expect here. This is a key question we get from clients. I'd say we get something; that seems, sure.At the same time, it seems that Europe weighs a response that is taking into account all the constraints that are in the equation. After all the U.S. is an ally also in security concerns. You don't wanna necessarily endanger that good relationship. So that will for sure play a role. And then the U.S. has a services surplus with Europe, so it's also likely to be a response in the space of services regulation, which is not necessarily inflationary on the European side, and not necessarily growth impacting so much.But, you know, be it as it may. This is going to be down from here, for sure. And then the other thing just mentioned by Michael, I mean there is clearly a read across from a slower U.S. growth environment that will also not help growth in the Euro area. So, all being told it could very well mean, if we get the U.S. close to recession, that the Euro area is flirting with recession too.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Chetan Ahya: Seth, can I interrupt you on this one? I just wanted to add the perspective on retaliatory tariffs from China. What we had actually originally billed was that China would take up a retaliatory response, which would be less than be less than proportionate, just like the last time. But considering that China has actually, mashed U.S. reciprocal tariffs, it makes us feel that it's very unlikely that a deal will be done anytime soon.Seth Carpenter: Okay. So then how would you revise your view for what's going on with China?Chetan Ahya: Yeah, so as I mentioned earlier, we had already built in some downside but with these reciprocal tariffs, we see another 50 to 100 [basis points] downside to China's growth, depending upon how strong is the policy stimulus.Seth Carpenter: So, at some point, I suspect we're going to start having a discussion about what it really means to have a global recession, and markets are going to start to look to central banks.So, Mike, let me turn to you. Jay Powell spoke recently. He repeated that he is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Can you talk to me about the challenges that the Fed is facing right now?Michael Gapen: The Fed is faced with this problem where tariffs mean it's missing on both sides of its mandate, where inflation is rising and there's downside risk to the economy.So how do you respond to that?Really what Powell said is it's going to be tough for us to look through this rise in inflation and pre-emptively ease. So, for the moment they're on hold and they're just going to evaluate how the economy responds. If there's no recession, it likely means the Fed's on hold for a very long time. If we get negative job growth, if you will, or job cuts, then the Fed may be moving to ease policy. But right now, Powell doesn't know which one of those is going to materialize first.Seth Carpenter: Alright Mike. So, I understand what you're saying. Inflation going higher, growth going lower. Really awkward position for the Fed, and I think central banks around the world really have to weigh the two sides of these sorts of things, which one's going to dominate…Jens Eisenschmidt: Exactly. Seth, may I jump in here because I think that's a perfect segue to the ECB; which I was thinking a lot about that – just recently coming back from the U.S. – how different the position really is here. So, the ECB currently is on the way to neutral, at least as we have always thought as a good way of framing their way. Inflation is falling to target. Now with all the risks that we have mentioned, there's a clear risk we see. Inflation going below 2 percent, already by mid this year – if oil prices were to stay as low as they are and with the euro appreciation that we have seen.The tariffs scare in terms of the inflationary impact from tariffs, that's much less clear. Now, whether that's really something to worry about simply because what you typically see with these tariffs – it's actually a depreciation of the exchange rate, which we haven't seen. So, we think there is a clear risk, downside risk to our path; at least that we have an anticipation. A quicker rate cutting cycle by the ECB. And potentially if the growth outlook that we have just outlined all these risks really materializes, or threatens is more likely to materialize, then the cuts could also be deeper.Seth Carpenter: That's super tricky as well though, because they're going to have to deal with all the same uncertainty. I will say this brings up to me the Bank of Japan because it was the one major central bank that was going the opposite direction before all of this. They were hiking while the other central banks were cutting.So, Chetan, let me turn to you. Do you think the Bank of Japan's gonna be able to follow through on the additional rate hike that you all had already had in your forecast?Chetan Ahya: Yes Seth. I think Bank of Japan will have a difficult time. Japan is exposed to direct effect of 24 percent reciprocal tariffs. It will see downside from global trade slowdown, which will weigh on its exports and yen appreciation will weigh on its inflation outlook. Hence, unless if U.S. removes tariffs very quickly in the near term, we see the risk that BOJ will pause instead of hiking as we had assumed in our earlier base case.Seth Carpenter: Well, this is a good place to stop. Let me see if I can summarize the conversations we've had so far. Before this latest round of tariffs had been announced, we had thought there'd be some tariffs, and we had looked for a bit of slowdown in the U.S. and in Europe and in China – the three major economies in the world. But these new rounds of tariffs have added a lot to that slowdown pushing the, the global economy right up to the edge of recession. And what that means as well is for central banks, they're left in at least something of a bind. The Bank of Japan though, the one major central bank that had been hiking, boy, there's a really good chance that that rate hike gets derailed.Seth Carpenter: Well, thank you for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.