Podcasts about PCE

Exploring Bogus oil prices Hold cow – look at what Gemini and JSD can do… Markets needed good news – Correlation high Fed on hold? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Bogus Oil Prices - Look at what Gemini and JSD can do... - Markets needed good news - Correlation high - Fed on hold? - JCD LIMERICK! Markets - Did we just correct? - Inflation - Eco that matters - Manipulation in Oil - Land? John Dvorak Jr. - Guest  - UPDATE ON JCD - AH Spoke with JCD Saturday.... Oil Prices - Bogus? - The price of oil in the middle east is at $140 for its land-locked price, but ocean traveling oil is at $100. - Sort, of, opposite of what you'd expect? - But, then there's been active conversation and warning about manipulating oil futures to manage the situation. - Oil in Backwardation across the spectrum. (Current price of oil contract is $95 and December contract is $75) Oil Prices may be BOGUS - But What About Gas? Gas Prices More Manipulation - The Trump administration has discussed trading in the oil futures market as a strategy to help curb surging crude prices amid the war in Iran, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said. - US would just sell future contracts and then deliver at those prices at the end of the contract date. (SPR/Venezuela?) - Not sure how markets will take an intervention like that. - Remember when short selling was banned on Financials back in the 2008 ----Stock prices continued to fall during the ban and tended to stabilize only after it was lifted, suggesting the ban did not stop the decline. ------ Seems that when government intervenes in free markets they can set off more panic as the optics make it look even worse. ---- AND- Russian Oil sanctions partially removed Inflation and ECO - PCE Prices stay elevated - GDP rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to a Commerce Department revision Friday. - The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. - The core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% on a 12-month basis. The ex-food and energy reading was 0.1 percentage point higher than December. Eco Table Oil Models...Very Cool - JSD - Explain - https://gemini.google.com/share/d1427a61a804 Department of Defense, err War, is hiring - The Pentagon is hiring financial 'defense', or is that a financial warfare unit? - This may mean we're beginning to really adopt "Unrestricted Warfare (???) ----- ie: The Chinese strategy where the warfare model is extended to include social engineering, illicit trade, and finance operations. - Isn't this already in play? Tariffs, Straits of Hormuz, Asset Seizure (Russian Yachts), Venezuelan Oil???? --- This is why Quantum is in play too...(offense and defense) Did you know? - 30% of Helium production comes from Qatar - Qatar helium production stopped back on March 2nd, and is ~30% of all helium globally - South Korea depends almost entirely on helium from the strait of Hormuz, with 65% from Qatar specifically -  Semiconductor manufacturing - - Wafer/equipment cooling — High thermal conductivity removes heat fast during lithography, etching, deposition, and other steps; critical for precise temp control and smaller chip nodes (no good substitutes). - - Inert purging & atmospheres — Chemically inert; flushes systems, prevents unwanted reactions in annealing, deposition, or vacuum chambers. -- - Plasma processes — Acts as carrier, diluent, or purge gas in plasma etching for precise circuit patterning. - - Leak detection — Tiny atoms detect micro-leaks in tools, pipelines, and vacuum systems to ensure reliability. - - Backside wafer cooling — Delivers stable cooling to silicon wafers in advanced fabs. INDIA! Running out of Gas - Does it matter? - India maintains only a 25 day reserve of oil - Good news for them that they use coal for electricity generation, and only use oil for transportation - BUT BUT BUT, What about getting goods from one place to another in India? -- FWIW - coal prices up 19% YTD in India Back to this... - AI not causing job losses - WHAT ABOUT META? - Meta's stock climbed after Reuters reported the social media giant is planning to lay off over 20% of its 79,000 employees to balance AI-related spending. Drone Warfare - New Warfare fought like games - Ender's Game Movie - Length: 3.5 meters (about 11.5 feet) Wingspan: 2.5 meters (about 8.2 feet) Weight (total takeoff/mass): Approximately 200 kg (around 440 pounds) Warhead/payload: Typically 40–50 kg explosive (some variants up to 90 kg with reduced fuel/range) --- Usage ~ 2,000 per day in Iran an peak of 10,000 per day in Ukraine/Russia Gaming Industry - DOA? See above - no wonder why - it is IRL now - Q1 continues sharp decline in video game sales - Older gamers: new AAA titles heavily cannibalized by old games - Gen Z & Alpha mostly play only Roblox (144M DAU), Fortnite (60M DAU), or Minecraft (11M DAU) - Young gamers rarely buy new AAA titles or consoles - Industry “growth” driven purely by subscriptions & upsells — no real sales increase - Hardware far below peaks: PS2 sold 160M, Nintendo DS 154M vs Switch 2 only 17M (original Switch lifetime 114M) - AI failing to cut costs for big studios — Roblox capturing all the upside - Roblox launches Incubator & Jumpstart programs for kids using AI “vibe-coding” to chase millionaire status INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Target Earnings - Target posted another quarter of falling revenue and customer traffic at its stores, though its shares rose as the retailer's earnings beat estimates and it said it is poised to end its sales slump. -  Earnings per share: $2.44 adjusted vs. $2.16 expected - Revenue: $30.45 billion vs. $30.48 billion expected - Target said it expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to range from $7.50 to $8.50. Its adjusted earnings per share for the most recent full year were $7.57. - Shares up 7% in a piss poor tape     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLAR Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS There is a tech pundit whose name be John, Whose sharp takes went late into dawn. He hit pause for some care, But with grit (and repair), Soon he'll be back oh so steady and strong. See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Gold falls as war drives oil higher, but Peter Schiff says stagflation, deficits, and a weaker dollar are setting up gold's next major surge. Peter Schiff explains why the latest pullback in gold, silver, and mining stocks is not a sign that the bull market is over, but a temporary reaction to rising oil prices, higher bond yields, and a stronger dollar. He argues that markets are focusing too narrowly on delayed Fed rate cuts while missing the bigger picture: war-driven deficits, stubborn inflation, a weakening economy, and mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to eventually monetize even more debt. He also breaks down soft GDP growth, rising PCE inflation, weakness in housing, and what he sees as the widening gap between Trump's economic claims and the underlying data. Schiff's core thesis is that stagflation, war spending, and long-term dollar weakness remain strongly bullish for gold and silver, while the current selloff is creating another buying opportunity.

Gold falls as war drives oil higher, but Peter Schiff says stagflation, deficits, and a weaker dollar are setting up gold's next major surge.Peter Schiff explains why the latest pullback in gold, silver, and mining stocks is not a sign that the bull market is over, but a temporary reaction to rising oil prices, higher bond yields, and a stronger dollar. He argues that markets are focusing too narrowly on delayed Fed rate cuts while missing the bigger picture: war-driven deficits, stubborn inflation, a weakening economy, and mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to eventually monetize even more debt.He also breaks down soft GDP growth, rising PCE inflation, weakness in housing, and what he sees as the widening gap between Trump's economic claims and the underlying data. Schiff's core thesis is that stagflation, war spending, and long-term dollar weakness remain strongly bullish for gold and silver, while the current selloff is creating another buying opportunity.Chapters:00:00 Metals Pullback Buy Zone02:00 Stocks Oil Rates Dollar05:07 War Deficits Bullish Gold09:51 Inflation Reality Check17:10 Housing Bubble Warning22:54 Lies or Delusion24:18 Economic Boom Claims25:15 War Fallout and Stagflation33:07 Gold Silver Big Picture37:56 Buy the Dip and Wrap UpFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffGet more gold & silver now: https://www.schiffgold.com1-888-GOLD-160 (465-3160)Open a T Gold account: https://www.tgold.comOpen a managed account: https://europac.comListen to The Peter Schiff Show: https://schiffradio.comFollow the main channel: https://youtube.com/peterschiff#Gold #OilPrices #InflationOur Sponsors:* Check out GhostBed: https://ghostbed.com/PETER* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/GOLD* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

A busy 24 hours between DC headlines and PCE data... Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and Michael Santoli kicked off the hour with the latest on both fronts, before discussing the implications for markets, traders, and the Federal Reserve. Plus: hear ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott's huge warning when it comes to AI and youth unemployment, along with more on how Iran is changing the business of cybersecurity with the CEO of one beneficiary (Rubrik).    Elsewhere in the hour: former Defense Secretary Mark Esper joined the team with his expectations when it comes to possible escalation ahead.    Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

With the Iran war now into its fourteenth day, Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer explored how investors should navigate volatile stock and oil markets heading into the weekend. Cramer explained why "we're buying some stuff today for the Trust." Shares of Adobe down sharply after Shantanu Narayen announced he will step down as CEO once a successor is found — and stay on as chair. The anchors reacted to a raft of economic data, including PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Also in focus: Meta reportedly delaying an AI rollout, financials and private credit woes, Micron and the memory chips rally, countdown to next week's Nvidia GTC AI conference.   Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Andrew and Tom discuss the Strait of Hormuz, PCE data, and Adobe earnings. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we go through some industry mailbag questions that made their way to my inbox this week. Plus, Robbie sits down with Logan Finance's Paul Jones for a discussion on how brokers avoid common self-employed borrower mistakes and simplify the process from application to closing to make non-QM accessible and efficient. And we close by looking at personal consumption expenditures (PCE).Today's podcast is brought to you by Floify, an industry-leading point of sale platform. Dynamic Apps 2.0 — an AI- powered enhancement lets lenders tailor application flows by loan type, including HELOC, construction, ag, non-QM and more. Borrowers see only the right questions, the right sections and are sent the right disclosures from the start. The result? Higher completion rates, less operational back-and-forth and specialty lending without the one-size-fits-all compromise. Discover more at www.floify.com — and see Dynamic Apps 2.0 in action at ICE Experience, March 15–18 in booth 713.

Blistering rallies in crude and yields sent the S&P 500 to its lowest close since November on Thursday. PCE and job openings data, along with sentiment, all are due today. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0131-0326) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Friday was a busy day for economic data, including PCE and GDP reports. Joy Yang breaks down the latest numbers and reacts to geopolitical pressures on the market. She argues that the Iran conflict will likely not be over soon, which will continue to push oil prices up and impact investor sentiment. She thinks investors are staying on the sidelines, but notes that historically, markets tend to “absorb these types of shocks.” Joy looks abroad for opportunities, staying away from U.S. equities.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Traders are “throwing the baby out with the bathwater” during this market turbulence as inflation fears “feed on themselves,” says Robert Conzo. He tells them to remember the historical likelihood that less-loved S&P 500 companies will outperform. He feels “relatively good” about the market, citing bright spots like the retail sales report and a relatively unchanged PCE. Robert encourages investors to rebalance their portfolios right now.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Better than expected JOLTS data and an "unsurprising" Consumer Sentiment report kick off Kevin Green's coverage on Morning Trade Live. He discusses how it all factors into the inflation picture facing investors on the heels of the latest GDP and PCE numbers also released on Friday. KG looks at the Strait of Hormuz as nations attempt to negotiate safe passage through the embattled oil shipping lane. KG stresses that oil volatility will continue to be the biggest market driver and later he adds thoughts on what traders need to pay attention to heading into the weekend. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros en verde antes de una mañana cargada de datos: PCE y GDP como los catalizadores principales para tasas y expectativas de la Fed. Core PCE esperado en 3.1% anual vs 3.0% previo: inflación aún “pegajosa” y menos espacio para recortes pronto; hoy también sale JOLTS como termómetro del empleo. $ADBE cae fuerte por anuncio de salida del CEO pese a buenos resultados; $META baja tras reporte de que su modelo “Avocado” se retrasa y no iguala a rivales.

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Juan Manuel de los Reyes y Valentina Orduz analizan una jornada donde la geopolítica y la macroeconomía convergen de una manera que los mercados no pueden ignorar. El primer bloque recorre el estado actual de la guerra y la situación en el Estrecho de Ormuz, las implicaciones para los mercados de energía globales y lo que significa para los países importadores de petróleo que el cruce de un porcentaje significativo del suministro mundial siga interrumpido. Luego, Juan Manuel y Valentina pasan a los datos que acaban de salir esta mañana, la segunda estimación del PIB del cuarto trimestre de 2025, que sorprendió negativamente al mercado al quedar muy por debajo de la lectura inicial y muy lejos del ritmo que traía la economía en el trimestre anterior, y los datos de ingreso personal, gasto y el índice PCE de enero, donde subió por encima de lo esperado y volvió a alejarse del objetivo de la Fed. El consumidor americano llega a este dato debilitado y con un shock de energía encima.

Is the 2026 stock market sitting on the edge of something bigger? In this video, we talk through why it feels like we are at the precipice, with major uncertainty surrounding the economy, inflation, mortgage rates, real estate, oil prices, and the war in Iran. We break down how all of these forces connect and why investors are watching every new headline so closely.We also explain PCE and Core PCE, two of the inflation measures that matter most to the Federal Reserve, and why they could play a big role in what happens next for interest rates and the stock market. If you want a big-picture discussion on where markets may be heading and what risks could shape the rest of 2026, this episode is for you.All Information is educational in its intent and distribution! Please do not consider this personal financial advice. We believe all clients have unique situations and thus require unique advice.

US has issued a new Russia-related general license permitting the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of March 12.ByteDance reportedly plans to tap NVIDIA (NVDA) Blackwell processors that are barred for export to China, with the Co. working with Aolani Cloud on plans to use some 500 Blackwell computing systems in Malaysia, according to WSJ.European equities soften, BESI NA surges on takeover rumours; US equity futures muted ahead of PCE, GDP.DXY extends above the 100 handle, GBP slips post-GDP.Fixed income choppy and energy prices and risk tone continue to dictate price action.Brent hovers around USD 100/bbl and metals dragged by a firmer dollar. Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs Report (Feb), US Core PCE Price Index (Jan), Durable Goods Orders (Jan), Personal Spending (Jan), JOLTS (Jan), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Mar), Atlanta Fed GDP. Rating updates include Scope Ratings on UK & Spain, S&P on Spain, Moody's on Greece & Germany, Fitch on Spain & Italy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Recorded live from the beach at Future Proof in Miami, this special episode of Facts vs Feelings brings Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to the main stage for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro, and the forces driving today's volatility.Against the backdrop of a rapidly shifting news cycle, Ryan and Sonu break down the dramatic swings in oil prices, the implications of geopolitical tensions for global markets, and what it all means for investors navigating an environment of inflationary growth. They also discuss why they remain constructive on equities despite recent volatility, how global market breadth is expanding beyond the U.S., and the portfolio positioning they believe makes sense in the current environment.From Fed policy and inflation trends to the strength of the labor market and signals from credit markets, the discussion highlights the difference between headline-driven fears and the underlying data shaping the economic outlook. Ryan and Sonu also explore where their outlook could be wrong, including risks tied to gold, small caps, and shifts in monetary policy.Key TakeawaysOil volatility matters: Large swings in energy prices can ripple through inflation, global trade, and market sentimentInflation may remain sticky: Core inflation near 3 percent could limit how aggressively the Federal Reserve cuts ratesGlobal markets are broadening: International equities have been contributing meaningfully to returns alongside U.S. stocksLabor markets remain resilient: Low layoffs and steady income growth continue supporting the economyPortfolio diversification still matters: Exposure across global equities, gold, and selective sector positioning may help navigate uncertaintyJump to:0:00 — Opening and Live Show Setup1:18 — Live from Miami!3:20 — Oil Market Whiplash and Why It Matters6:25 — Portfolio Positioning: Stocks, Gold, and Bonds9:05 — Signs of a Global Bull Market11:20 — Midterm Year Volatility and Market Corrections13:55 — The Fed, Inflation, and the Labor Market17:40 — How Carson Research Supports Advisors19:40 — Where Our Outlook Could Be Wrong23:20 — Signals from Tech, Staples, Credit, and Crypto28:40 — CPI, PCE, and Final ThoughtsConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Lucid Group (LCID) pushes into autonomous ride-hailing with its Lunar robotaxi concept and plans to tap Uber's (UBER) network, but investors question the strategy as losses widen. Netflix (NFLX) signals a major AI shift with a reported $600 million bet on filmmaking startup Interpositive. Meanwhile, Marley Kayden and Sam Vadas break down steady jobless claims, the Fed's rate outlook, and why the upcoming PCE report could be a key test for markets.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Brian Jacobsen and Sarah Foster preview next week's Fed meeting. Sarah isn't sure whether the latest CPI report is good or bad news because of the conflict with Iran. She notes that before the war, we were already in a difficult place for inflation. Brian points out how many industries rely on the Strait of Hormuz, including fertilizer, but sees the conflict as a “temporary detour” for inflation levels. The Fed prefers to look at the PCE report to measure inflation, and they discuss how that changes the outlook and whether they might cut rates this year.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros levemente en rojo mientras el mercado se posiciona para el CPI de febrero; el petróleo sigue siendo el “swing factor” del tape. Consenso CPI: 2.5% anual y 0.3% mensual; core 2.5% anual y 0.2% mensual. Más adelante, core PCE esperado en 3.1% anualizado y 0.4% mensual. $ORCL sorprende con nube e infraestructura de IA y un salto enorme en backlog; $BLDP sube por acuerdo para 500 motores de celda de combustible con $NFYEF.

Before we jump in — if you want to see the tools mentioned in this episode in action, including the 0DTE Trend Spread Engine and the 1DTE Bias indicator, visit AlphaCrunching.com to learn more and join the trading community.In this episode, Eric discusses the recent market breakdown and how current geopolitical tensions, volatility, and upcoming economic data are shaping trading decisions. With SPX experiencing sharp moves and uncertainty rising, he walks through how he's adapting his approach and managing trades during this environment.A major theme is market structure and key levels. Right now, gamma positioning appears scattered across large round numbers, suggesting institutional traders themselves are uncertain. As a result, Eric is watching major SPX levels every 100 points (6600, 6700, 6800, etc.) as potential support and resistance zones while the market “ping-pongs” between them.He also reviews the macro backdrop driving volatility, including geopolitical tensions, sector rotation away from AI stocks, and a busy week of economic data with CPI, jobless claims, and PCE all ahead. These events could determine whether the market stabilizes or pushes lower toward the mid-6600s.Eric then explains how he's positioning his portfolio:Maintaining a core SPY position while actively trading around itUsing covered calls and rolling positions to manage downside while leaving room for upside participationPausing many longer-duration spreads due to increased uncertaintyMuch of the current trading activity has shifted toward shorter-term strategies, particularly SPX 0DTE trades.The episode highlights how the AlphaCrunching 0DTE Trend Spread Engine (TSE) is being used in practice. The system ranks the best times of day for 0DTE spreads based on historical performance and now posts the short strike levels from the highest-probability trades. These levels act as data-backed areas where SPX has historically stayed away from by expiration, allowing traders to use them as reference points for structuring credit spreads.Eric also introduces progress on the 1DTE Bias indicator, an experimental tool that evaluates market regimes using factors like trend behavior and VIX conditions. By comparing current conditions to historical matches over the past three years, the tool estimates the probability of the market closing higher the next day. The recent volatility spike has highlighted one of the challenges of building this model: unusual market conditions sometimes produce very small historical sample sizes.The episode closes with an important reminder about patience and risk management. In volatile environments, it's often better to wait for conditions to settle rather than forcing trades. Sometimes the best position is simply holding cash until clearer opportunities emerge.Overall, this discussion provides a real-time look at how Eric is navigating a volatile market using a combination of macro awareness, probability-based levels, and adaptive options strategies.

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros en rojo pero recuperando parte del golpe nocturno: el crudo baja desde niveles cerca de $120, aunque el mercado sigue en modo risk-off por el conflicto y Ormuz. Petróleo >$100 mantiene miedo a inflación y golpe al consumo; el G7 evalúa liberar reservas, y el mercado ya mira CPI miércoles y PCE viernes. $HIMS salta >50% por posible acuerdo de distribución de GLP-1 con $NVO; $OKLO y $LEU exploran JV para fortalecer cadena de suministro de HALEU.

Revisa en detalle el Panorama Semanal aquí

Jorge Carrillo hijo del histórico secretario general de PCE y Marcel Camacho, hijo de Marcelino Camacho, el fundador de CCOO. Con ellos hablamos de la transición, la clandestinidad y el exilio y del papel decisivo de sus madres en esa lucha.[[LINK:INTERNO|||Article|||69ac0b3cb887b0e4f8987ce4|||Jorge Carrillo y Marcel Camacho reivindican el papel clave de sus madres durante el exilio: "Hay toda una historia de lucha"]]

Yelena Shulyatyeva and Ian Wyatt break down the latest inflation data. Ian thinks investors should focus on the PCE over the CPI report and explains how their different weightings give them different perspectives. Yelena thinks that the continued imposition of tariffs will keep inflation up. She explains why she's looking at the February employment report more than the January one, citing seasonality and a low response rate among other factors. Yelena and Ian discuss how many rate cuts, if any, we'll see this year from the Fed.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Original Release Date: Feb 6, 2026Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

This week the stagflation theme refused to fade. On Friday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation. Headline and core PCE rose 2.9 per cent and 3.0 per cent respectively. More troubling than the levels was the recent momentum. Inflation has firmed over the past three months, an unwelcome development that further complicates the Fed's path forward. The same release cycle brought a softer than expected Q4 2025 GDP report. Headline growth registered just 1.4 per cent, unsettling markets. Consumption cooled from recent quarters, but the reaction to the top line number appears excessive. The government shutdown alone shaved nearly a full percentage point from growth, distorting the underlying signal. Taken together, the data reinforce a familiar and uncomfortable mix: slower activity alongside renewed price pressures. For central bankers, it is the most awkward of combinations.

In Episode 183 of the Investor Professor Podcast, we break down a major market-moving development: the Supreme Court's 6–3 decision to strike down the bulk of the IEPA tariffs that had become a central pillar of President Trump's trade agenda. With roughly $160 billion in tariff revenue in question and new 10–15% proposals already being floated under alternative legal authority, uncertainty is back at the forefront. We discuss how shifting trade policy affects corporate decision-making, capital spending, and global supply chains—especially at a time when inflation data (PCE) remains sticky and major indexes are treading water. We also preview a pivotal earnings week led by Nvidia, explore volatility across AI and software names, and examine the implications of a $200 million contract dispute between Anthropic and the U.S. government that could ripple through the broader AI ecosystem.We close the episode on a more personal and reflective note, discussing value investor Guy Spier's decision to wind down the Aquamarine Fund following a glioblastoma diagnosis. Drawing from his deeply honest letter to shareholders, we reflect on mentorship, integrity, and what truly matters in a profession that can often feel transactional and isolating. From tariffs and tech to gratitude and legacy, Episode 183 blends timely macro analysis with a perspective that goes beyond the numbers. *This podcast contains general information that may not be suitable for everyone. The information contained herein should not be construed as personalized investment advice. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this podcast will come to pass. Investing in the stock market involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Rydar Equities, Inc. does not offer legal or tax advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstance.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Guy's Letter

US equity futures are pointing sharply lower to start the week, with Asian markets broadly higher and European equities trading a weaker open. Markets are reacting to Friday's Supreme Court ruling striking down the IEEPA tariffs, followed immediately by President Trump announcing a new global tariff rate of 10%, later raised to 15% under a different authority. The move has injected fresh uncertainty into the trade landscape, with expectations that the administration will pursue additional trade investigations to restore its effective tariff rate. Questions also remain around potential tariff refunds after the court offered no clear guidance. The ruling and subsequent policy shift come against a backdrop of mixed macro data, including softer flash PMIs, hotter-than-expected core PCE, and below-consensus fourth-quarter GDP. Fed commentary leaned hawkish, with officials highlighting upside inflation risks and signaling that further tightening could return to the table if price pressures reaccelerate. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated amid discussions of a potential limited US strike on Iran, though risk assets had largely shrugged off the headlines late last week.Companies Mentioned: Netflix, TPG, KKR, Fortune Brands Innovations

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's tariffs on Friday. And the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) came in at 3%, signaling higher inflation than expected. Sounds like it's a Money Monday and Evan Taylor, Uniersity of Arizona associate economics professor, joins us to talk about all the most pressing money stories facing you. 

While stocks have been stuck in a trading range for months, it has given their Daily Moving Averages time to catch up and for oversold levels to burn off.Technically, this should provide current prices with stronger support to move higher from -- especially if capital starts rotating back into the battered software and AI sectors.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds for this, as well as the new Supreme Court decision against tariffs, the latest GDP growth and PCE inflation data, mounting signs of concern in private credit, as well as Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.Get Lance's 10 Immutable Laws Of Building Wealth at https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/money-the-10-immutable-laws-of-building-wealth/REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S SPRING ONLINE CONFERENCE AT THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT PRICE at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#tariffs #bullmarket #privatecredit _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4tNvJGE David Bahnsen opens Dividend Cafe after a volatile week marked by a weaker-than-expected GDP report and a Supreme Court ruling striking down President Trump's tariff rationale under the Economic Emergency Act (with a deeper tariff discussion coming Monday). His core thesis: disinflation is likely in 2026—and it may not feel positive. He clarifies the difference between inflation (rising prices), disinflation (slower price increases), and deflation (falling prices). Bond markets are signaling softer expectations, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.07% and five-year inflation breakevens around 2.4%, suggesting modest real growth ahead. Recent GDP registered about 1.4% annualized, distorted in part by a government shutdown, while core PCE inflation is roughly 3% year-over-year versus 2.9% a year ago. Bahnsen expects services-driven disinflation, particularly as rent measures catch up to real-time data. However, that may not improve affordability given tight housing inventory and a frozen resale market. He also warns that business investment is overly concentrated in AI and data centers—echoing the fracking-era CapEx surge—while broader investment remains subdued. Risks to growth include a weak labor market with low hiring, a personal saving rate near 3.4% (raising the chance tax refunds rebuild savings instead of fuel spending), and muted bank lending despite lower rates. 00:00 A wild news week 01:48 Cutting through economic spin 03:23 Why 2026 disinflation may disappoint 04:36 Bond market signals 07:16 GDP and data distortions 10:49 Services-led disinflation 14:05 Concentrated CapEx risk 16:38 Labor, savings, and lending 20:09 Tariffs and demand drag 22:24 What to watch next Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Is the market teetering on the edge of a "seminal collapse"? On this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo, Mark Sebastian (the "Meatball"), and Russell Rhoads (Dr. VIX) break down a chaotic week in the vol markets. From the aftermath of a legendary "V-Death Match" on the Pro network to the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs, the team explores why the VIX is hovering near 20 despite indices sitting near all-time highs. Inside This Episode: The Volatility Review: A deep dive into the "weird" market reaction following the Supreme Court tariff ruling, spicy PCE data, and the decoupling of the Mag Seven from the rest of the market. The Private Credit Fiasco: Mark Sebastian sounds the alarm on cross-asset margining, Bitcoin's "teetering" state, and the potential for a Michael Saylor "apology tour." The VIX Mothership: Analysis of the massive call buying in March, April, and even May 70/80 strikes. Is someone hedging for a black swan? Russell's Weekly Rundown: Breaking down the "best option trade ever seen" using July 100 calls to finance downside protection. The Weekend Trade: With carrier groups moving in the Gulf and geopolitical tensions rising, is it time to load up on UVIX?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a major Supreme Court decision striking down the administration's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, and what that means for inflation, business costs, and economic uncertainty ahead. With fourth quarter GDP coming in at 1.4% and core PCE inflation rising to 3%, headlines are painting a mixed picture. Is growth really faltering? Are inflation pressures reaccelerating? And how should business leaders interpret the latest data amid shifting trade policy? Lauren unpacks what is signal versus noise, why government shutdown effects matter, and why inflation may not fade as quickly as some hope. Most importantly, she explains why the tariff ruling does not automatically mean lower prices for businesses and consumers. If you are navigating margin pressure, pricing strategy decisions, or concerns about profitless prosperity, this episode offers critical context. What does this ruling really mean for your cost structure in 2026?

Michael Green and Ken Kim break down the latest economic data. Ken expects a better GDP reading next quarter, citing the government shutdown. Michael thinks the “core component” to watch is year-over-year growth. They also cover the latest PCE report and where they think inflation is going. Ken thinks there might be rate cuts in the back half of the year.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Andrew Almeida reviews the PCE report released Friday morning, along with the GDP report. He thinks the reports push any potential rate cuts to the “back half of the year.” He is positive on markets, citing AI capex as a factor in his optimism. He compares mid caps to small caps, and thinks there are “better quality” companies in the former. He expects companies receiving the AI capex to be the next topic under scrutiny in markets.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kevin Hincks notes it's hard to interpret the latest core PCE print, which showed an uptick in most headlines numbers. However, those numbers are from December. Kevin explains why investors want to discount the parts of the print and points to strength elsewhere in GDP. On the Supreme Court, Kevin urges to watch for commentary on tariffs and Fed independence. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

John Luke Tyner looks at the subcategories within the PCE print to back up his view point that the "inflation trend is moving in the right direction." He later postulates the potential thinking of FOMC members as they prepare for a leadership change post-Jerome Powell's tenure. John highlights the shelter component of inflation data continuing to come in higher, but he believes that will come down. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

RSM's Joe Brusuelas joins Morning Movers with his perspective on the macroeconomic trends developing in the U.S. ahead of two key economic data prints: GDP and PCE. He breaks down the significance of 2025's government shutdown and how it could affect the 4Q GDP figures. Later, Joe reveals how AI capex spending will show up on some parts of the economic data but he suggests investors dig deeper into the various layers below the top-line numbers. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this episode of J.P. Morgan's Making Sense, Phoebe White, a senior U.S. rates strategist and head of U.S. inflation strategy, sits down with senior economist Mike Hanson to unpack the January CPI report and the inflation outlook for 2026. They discuss why inflation may hover near 3% this year, the impact of tariffs, the gradual cooling in rents, and how differences between the CPI and PCE could inform the Fed's path. The conversation also touches on energy and food prices, data quality concerns at the BLS and much more.   This episode was recorded on February 18, 2026.  This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan. © 2026, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved.

Is the market teetering on the edge of a "seminal collapse"? On this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo, Mark Sebastian (the "Meatball"), and Russell Rhoads (Dr. VIX) break down a chaotic week in the vol markets. From the aftermath of a legendary "V-Death Match" on the Pro network to the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs, the team explores why the VIX is hovering near 20 despite indices sitting near all-time highs. Inside This Episode: The Volatility Review: A deep dive into the "weird" market reaction following the Supreme Court tariff ruling, spicy PCE data, and the decoupling of the Mag Seven from the rest of the market. The Private Credit Fiasco: Mark Sebastian sounds the alarm on cross-asset margining, Bitcoin's "teetering" state, and the potential for a Michael Saylor "apology tour." The VIX Mothership: Analysis of the massive call buying in March, April, and even May 70/80 strikes. Is someone hedging for a black swan? Russell's Weekly Rundown: Breaking down the "best option trade ever seen" using July 100 calls to finance downside protection. The Weekend Trade: With carrier groups moving in the Gulf and geopolitical tensions rising, is it time to load up on UVIX?

Focus returns to earnings as Walmart and Deere report before the bell. Both stocks had strong starts in 2026. Investors also brace for critical PCE and GDP data due early tomorrow.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0128-0226) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Connor Browne previews tomorrow's economic data prints, which include a GDP reading and the PCE report. He anticipates a “push and pull” between Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh and President Trump as the year goes on. He's looking for opportunity in valuation dispersion, hunting outside of the large cap names. Connor also gives his perspective on the energy market and the transformation from fossil fuels to renewables. He's also very excited about agentic AI.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Areas that recently experienced the largest slowdowns in unauthorized immigration also saw the largest slowdowns in employment growth, according to data analysis by the San Francisco Fed. This disproves the accusation that immigrants take jobs from American citizens. In this episode, how tighter immigration restrictions could affect the U.S. labor market long-term. Plus: It's too early to tell how AI affects workplace productivity, California gas prices reflect more than high taxes, and the upcoming PCE index will tell Fed economists where we're at with inflation.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Areas that recently experienced the largest slowdowns in unauthorized immigration also saw the largest slowdowns in employment growth, according to data analysis by the San Francisco Fed. This disproves the accusation that immigrants take jobs from American citizens. In this episode, how tighter immigration restrictions could affect the U.S. labor market long-term. Plus: It's too early to tell how AI affects workplace productivity, California gas prices reflect more than high taxes, and the upcoming PCE index will tell Fed economists where we're at with inflation.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Ben Emons paraphrases Fed speakers discussing the real impact AI will have on the labor force in the USA. Looking ahead to the upcoming FOMC minutes release, he's expecting to read Fed members in favor of holding off on a rate cut for the foreseeable future. Ben's also awaiting Friday's PCE report, admitting a 3.0% level could be clocked in the upcoming report. He explains his rationale for rates to go higher, watching any rebound in the beaten-up software stock group as an indicator to track.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This week features GDP and PCE prices Friday after Walmart reports Thursday. Volatility is up after another poor showing from major indexes last week amid AI-related shakiness.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0128-0226) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Together at last. In a rare joint performance, Dante and Matt join the Inside Economics crew to unpack January's jobs and CPI reports. The brief federal government shutdown delayed economic data releases a few days, which made for a loaded slate this week. Dante shares his impression of January's seemingly strong jobs report and then the team plays the stats game. A brief hiatus did not affect Marisa's ability to dominate. Matt then goes through the first inflation data of 2026, and where it looks like inflation is headed in the coming months.View the Full U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook Webinar here: https://events.moodys.com/ta6186-2026-bank-odwbn-mau28334-us-economic-outlook-q1View our AI generated paper here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=165AB685-ED95-43E8-8533-DA2CE131A01A&app=downloadHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

 The hosts reflect on surviving the “ninth worst” Bitcoin crash and the sharp one-day move from ~$70k to ~$60k, followed by a quick rebound into the high-$60ksJohn shares client sentiment: widespread “WTF” confusion, plus a growing chorus expecting another leg down—often a late-cycle/bottom-ish behavioral tellDiscussion of fear/greed collapsing to extreme levels and how prior bear-market patterns (e.g., late 2022) can rhyme without being predictiveInflation talk via multiple lenses: CPI vs PCE vs alternative real-time measures like Truflation, plus skepticism on CPI components (e.g., health insurance methodology)Macro implication: inflation appears to be cooling enough to give the Fed room for rate cuts, but Bitcoin can still rally even without a “big print”Lynn Alden clip reaction: Bitcoin bottoms tend to be slow, sideways, and buyer-rotation-driven rather than V-shaped without major stimulusAI as a potential catalyst and volatility driver across equities, with examples of major S&P names experiencing severe drawdowns amid uncertaintyTradFi signals: CFA Institute review of a Bitcoin book framed as an “intellectual curiosity” bridge for mainstream finance audiencesLightning Labs announcement: enabling AI agents to pay via Lightning, positioning Bitcoin rails as a native fit for autonomous software commerceQuick hits: quantum-resistance progress (BIP-360), Elon's “X Money” timeline, and “Bitcoin is dead” obituaries re-emerging as contrarian indicators  ► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/vault?utm_campaign=vault&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app?utm_campaign=app&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour! ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/welcome?utm_campaign=welcome_to_bitcoin&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Connect with Swan Bitcoin: ✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan ✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin ✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin ✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin ✔ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SwanBitcoin/ ✔ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realswanbitcoin

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.