Podcasts about PCE

Another month, another PCE report that put annual core inflation meaningfully above the Fed's 2% target. The central bank has been fighting high inflation for more than five years now. At a certain point, you might start to wonder, does the Fed even have the power to fix it? Also in this episode: Consumer confidence falls, transportation durable goods orders tick up, and Arizona's Great Recession-era bid to save the state budget offers insight into how AI might change our tax structure.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Inflation is stuck above 2%. Can the Fed really do anything about it?Consumers are pessimistic about the next six monthsHow Arizona's "Capitol-ism" points to a potential tax fix for the AI ageWhat's driving an increase in orders for transportation equipment?Running a historic motel off Route 66 is no easy pursuitThe Gila River Indian Community "walks the walk" on water conservation

Another month, another PCE report that put annual core inflation meaningfully above the Fed's 2% target. The central bank has been fighting high inflation for more than five years now. At a certain point, you might start to wonder, does the Fed even have the power to fix it? Also in this episode: Consumer confidence falls, transportation durable goods orders tick up, and Arizona's Great Recession-era bid to save the state budget offers insight into how AI might change our tax structure.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Inflation is stuck above 2%. Can the Fed really do anything about it?Consumers are pessimistic about the next six monthsHow Arizona's "Capitol-ism" points to a potential tax fix for the AI ageWhat's driving an increase in orders for transportation equipment?Running a historic motel off Route 66 is no easy pursuitThe Gila River Indian Community "walks the walk" on water conservation

We break down the massive implications of the U.S. Treasury's multi-billion dollar buyback program and how direct bond market intervention is shifting yields. The conversation also explores incoming PCE inflation data, expected Nvidia earnings, and what the financial policies discussed at Jackson Hole mean for upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions.Beyond the macro setup, we analyze Bitcoin's recent breakout to determine if the bear market is truly over amid anticipated institutional adoption. Finally, we map out the five non-negotiable rules for raising investor capital and break down the four unique types of leverage you can use to secure real estate ownership today.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDU.S. Treasury buybacks and direct bond market interventionPCE inflation data and future Federal Reserve rate pause predictionsNvidia earnings expectations and impact on the broader tech sectorJackson Hole economic symposium and the proposed Crypto Clarity ActBitcoin price breakouts and expanding institutional market adoptionThe five non-negotiable rules for successfully raising investor capitalFour distinct types of capital used to aggressively acquire real estateKEY TAKEAWAYSThe Federal Reserve is heavily leaning toward rate pauses rather than cuts, shifting the focus to direct treasury interventions to lower bond yields.Sustained Bitcoin all-time highs will likely depend on the passage of the Crypto Clarity Act and the subsequent entry of regulated U.S. government purchasing.Leading with a deal's downside risk and stress-testing potential threats is the fastest way to build credibility with sophisticated capital investors.You do not always need liquid cash to acquire real estate; sourcing the deal, operating the asset, or leveraging your personal balance sheet are equally valuable forms of capital.Never pitch an investment opportunity that you do not have ultimate operational control over, as protecting investor capital requires executive decision-making power.CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONVisit skylineocresidences.com to discover luxury homeownership and exceptional value at Skyline OC.Invest in the Imagos Income Fund for steady passive returns targeting 10%. Text INCOME to 844-447-1555.Get a free financial portfolio X-Ray to audit your current investments. Text XRAY to 844-447-1555.Partner with the team on commercial real estate equity deals. Text DEALS to 844-447-1555.

Brian Szytel reports markets were essentially flat, while bonds moved as the 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.66; oil was slightly lower amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz deal talk. Economic data was mostly positive, but headline PCE was 0.3 vs 0.2 expected (3.7% YoY) while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2 (3.3% YoY), lifting Fed futures to a 40% chance of a September hike, which he views as largely a token 25 bps timing debate into Q4. He previews Jackson Hole and Fed hawk Warsh, focusing on potential balance-sheet discussion amid Treasury plans to issue more short-term debt and buy back about $4B long-term. A listener question prompts discussion of debt absorption, real yields, overindebtedness as deflationary, and currency depreciation as a release valve, citing Japan's weakening yen alongside rising JGB yields. Other data: durable goods 1.1% vs 0.5%, personal income 0.4% vs 0.2%, spending 0.2, and Q2 GDP unchanged at 1.5% with nominal GDP in the 6s. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:25 Bonds Oil Geopolitics 00:55 PCE Inflation Update 01:38 Fed Hike Odds 02:06 Jackson Hole Treasury Moves 03:09 Balance Sheet QT Talk 04:04 Debt Issuance Explained 05:16 Japan Yen Release Valve 06:04 Other Economic Data 06:45 GDP And Closing Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber led off the show with breaking news involving a landmark social media addiction case: Meta agreed to pay $16.7 billion in a settlement with a coalition of state attorneys general led by California. The anchors also set the stage for Nvidia's earnings due out after Wednesday's close of trading — and explored what's at stake for both the AI trade and the markets overall. Ahead of Friday's keynote by Fed Chairman Warsh at the Jackson Hole Fed symposium, PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — rose more than expected in July, with Core PCE matching economists' forecasts. Also in focus: OpenAI claims its new Jalapeño chip outperforms Nvidia processors, Intuit tumbles, Bill Gates' AI warning, Mark Walter's TWG Global blasts "attacks" and denies fraud amid a federal probe. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MRKT Matrix - Wednesday, August 26th S&P 500 is little changed after PCE report shows sticky inflation; Nvidia earnings on deck (CNBC) Fed's preferred inflation gauge shows core prices rose 3.3% annually in July (CNBC) The $1.5 Trillion Question Nvidia's Earnings Can't Answer (WSJ) Meta settles social media addiction case with California, other states for $16.7 billion (CNBC) OpenAI Claims Its New Chips Can Outperform Nvidia Processors in Tests (Bloomberg) --- Subscribe to our newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://riskreversal.substack.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs

Markets are watching Nvidia earnings as AI demand and data center spending keep tech in focus. Plus, Target, Starbucks and Nike test whether experienced leaders can deliver successful turnarounds. Later, PCE inflation, interest rates and Fed policy keep investors focused on the next move for markets. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

US Treasury yields drop as attention turns to PCE inflation data tonight. RBA August meeting minutes lean to the hawkish side. Australia's July CPI inflation today will be watched for any upside surprise. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari reviews how Gold has been tracking as US rate hike expectations change, fiscal concerns rise and the Middle East conflict continues. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U6PdsL David Bahnsen opens from The Bahnsen Group's new Santa Barbara (Montecito) office, briefly recaps markets (Dow up ~0.25%, S&P down ~0.25%, Nasdaq down ~0.75% led by semiconductors; staples and financials up, tech down), and argues recent 10-year yield trading has been relatively range-bound. He focuses on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announced 30-year Treasury buybacks ($2B now, potentially $4B in September) aimed at lowering long-end rates and term premium, likening it to an “Operation Twist” style intervention. Bahnsen says the move briefly lowered the 30-year yield about 10 bps but largely failed and is unlikely to work long term, criticizing government attempts to override market price discovery. He attributes higher long yields mainly to 30-year market illiquidity and new competing long-dated issuance from AI hyperscalers. He also covers U.S.-Canada tariff threats and retaliation, upcoming data/events (PCE, durable goods, Nvidia earnings, Warsh at Jackson Hole), WTI down ~2.5% near $85, and promotes his new book, “Profit from the Prophet,” releasing tomorrow. 00:00 Welcome From Montecito 01:06 Market Snapshot Today 01:38 Is Bond Volatility Overstated 02:58 Treasury Buyback Plan Explained 05:53 Did It Work Short Term 06:59 Can It Work Long Term 07:55 Why Long Yields Rose 12:05 Concerns About Intervention 13:52 Tariffs Canada Trade Spat 15:30 Week Ahead Data And Jackson Hole 16:27 Book Launch And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Bitcoin is coming off one of its strongest weeks in years, with ETF inflows surging, yields falling, and the weaker dollar bringing the debasement trade back into focus. Attention now shifts to PCE, Nvidia earnings, and Jackson Hole, while strong moves in ETH, Zcash, and other crypto assets suggest risk appetite is broadening beyond Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, Phil talks about the latest headlines surrounding tariffs, the all-important inflation report known as PCE, and his family's homemade tomato sauce.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government sees little chance of resuming talks with President Donald Trump before the midterm elections after trade talks collapsed. Carney is designing a domestic aid package to help businesses hurt by US tariffs, which will remain in place for the duration of the conflict and throughout the rest of Trump’s term if need be. The US has said the path for talks is unclear, with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stating that they don’t have new talks planned with the Canadians and are moving forward with measures that respond to Canadian retaliation. 2) Iran’s oil shipments to Asia have all but dried up, driving the cost of those cargoes to the highest levels in years. A US blockade has left loaded Iranian vessels trapped inside the Persian Gulf and a fleet of empty ones stuck outside, resulting in a scarcity of oil in the region. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to unveil a plan for “the greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world”, targeting Chinese refiners and the banks funding them. 3) Investors are looking for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to clarify his views on how the US central bank should react to stubborn inflation when he speaks on Friday at the annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The chairman's communications strategy is off to a rocky start, and he's under pressure to give clearer guidance of how the Fed might react over the remainder of the year. Recent data have shown inflation, while still above the Fed's 2% goal, may be starting to cool, with economists estimating the PCE price index rose 3.6% in July from a year ago.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mortgage rates are in play this week as the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury both step in to try to bring rates down, and I'm breaking down exactly what that means for you. If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out where mortgage rates are headed, this is the episode to watch before the week's economic data starts rolling in.In today's show, I cover:• The Treasury's new bond buying plan (what some are calling "QE light") and how it's designed to push mortgage rates lower • The difference between the federal funds rate and the 10 year Treasury, and why only one of them actually controls your mortgage rate • This week's full economic calendar, including ADP jobs, Case Shiller home prices, PCE inflation, jobless claims, and the Jackson Hole symposium • Why oil prices are the number one thing to watch right now, and what happens to rates if the Iran conflict drags on or resolves • How to track your own rate and payment automatically with our free RateWatch toolRead the full breakdown on the blog: https://therateupdate.com/blogCHAPTERS 0:00 The Treasury Is Buying Its Own Debt 1:47 What Actually Controls Your Mortgage Rate 3:35 This Week's Economic Calendar 6:10 Why Oil Is the Number to Watch 8:05 RateWatch and What to Do Next

What a week! Crypto surged. Bond yields jumped. Technology stocks got hit. Economic data kept traders guessing. And now Wall Street is preparing for one of the biggest earnings reports of the quarter. In today's Trading Week Wrap Up!, we'll connect the dots between the biggest market-moving stories of the week and, more importantly, discuss what they could mean as we head into a potentially HUGE week for the markets. Let's start with crypto. Bitcoin is on pace for its best week in more than two years, surging more than 20% as improving regulatory sentiment, Washington's increasingly crypto-friendly stance, and changing liquidity expectations breathed life back into the beaten-down digital asset market. Ethereum and many altcoins joined the party as well. So... Is the crypto winter finally ending, or is this just another massive bear-market rally? We'll break it down. Then there's the bond market. Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, creating another challenge for stocks—particularly high-growth technology and AI companies whose valuations can be extremely sensitive to borrowing costs and interest rates. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 this week, while semiconductor stocks came under significant pressure. We'll discuss: Crypto's huge rebound – Is Bitcoin signaling a genuine change in trend? Interest rates & bond yields – Why the bond market continues to be one of the biggest risks facing equities. Technology volatility – Is the recent weakness an opportunity, or are investors finally questioning some of those massive AI valuations? Economic data – What this week's numbers tell us about inflation, growth and the direction of Federal Reserve policy. The broader market – Where are we seeing strength, weakness and potential trading opportunities? And then...

Mortgage rates are about to move — and today I break down exactly what the Federal Reserve is watching before they do. The August 21, 2026 Rate Update for homebuyers and Realtors: PCE vs CPI, jobs and claims, where mortgage rates sit now, and the $100 billion in tariff refunds that went to corporations instead of consumers.CHAPTERS0:00 What This Week's Data Told the Fed1:15 PCE vs CPI — The Inflation Number That Sets Mortgage Rates2:40 Jobs and Jobless Claims: The Fed's Dual Mandate4:10 The Reports That Can Move Mortgage Rates From Here5:45 Where Mortgage Rates Sit Right Now7:00 $100 Billion in Tariff Refunds: Who Actually Got Paid8:30 Target, Amazon, Ford — Refunds Booked Into Earnings9:50 Why Consumers Aren't Getting a Tariff Refund Check10:50 What Homebuyers and Realtors Should Do NowMORTGAGE RATE UPDATE — FRIDAY, AUGUST 21, 2026This week's economic data gave the Federal Reserve exactly what it watches most, and I walk through it the way the Fed actually reads it: PCE inflation over headline CPI, the jobs and jobless claims trend over any single monthly print, and the drivers underneath both — oil, shelter, and services. Then we look at what's ahead on the economic calendar and what could realistically push mortgage rates higher or lower.If you're buying a home, refinancing, or advising clients as a real estate agent, this hits your monthly payment directly. Mortgage rates follow the bond market and the 10-Year Treasury, not the Fed funds headlines — and understanding that difference is the biggest edge a homebuyer has right now.In the second half: roughly $100 billion of the $166 billion in struck-down IEEPA tariffs has been certified and sent out — to importers and corporations, not the consumers who paid it at the register. Target booked $994 million in tariff refunds and $1.65 in earnings per share while confirming it won't issue customer refunds. Amazon collected about $640 million. Ford recorded a $1.3 billion one-time tariff benefit. FedEx and UPS are among the few passing money back.Both halves land on the same place: your buying power.NEXT STEPS

In Episode 349 of The Higher Standard, Chris breaks down why cooling CPI doesn't mean inflation is dead, why the Fed may be walking straight into a stagflation trap, and how a weakening jobs market, rising energy costs, Japan, the yen and a geopolitical oil shock are colliding at exactly the wrong time. From the 1970s and Volcker to CPI vs. PCE, shelter inflation, owners' equivalent rent and the “ghost” hiding inside year-over-year inflation math, this episode explains why the next inflation print may already be partially baked in—and why the Fed's September decision is becoming a choice between fighting prices it can't control and crushing a labor market that may already be cracking. Macroeconomics, but without pretending beef and chicken are the same thing.

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US economy is starting to show signs of exhaustion - just as the Chinese economy looks like it can't actually transition to one where internal demand replaces their industrial exports engine, as they were planning. But locally this week it will be all about how July retail sales turned out, and an update on our June population. And there will be a rush of earnings reports out this week from listed companies. In Australia we will get their July labour market update, and both the August Westpac consumer confidence survey results, along with an update of inflation expectations. Globally. te ongoing standstill between Iran and the US should continue to dictate energy prices and influence global interest rates. Rates will also take the spotlight with minutes from the last divisive meeting of the Federal Reserve, which included three dissents. More US data is expected to confirm their slowing economy. In Japan there will be a raft of data updates for the world's fourth largest economy, including for GDP, exports, inflation, machinery orders and flash PMI data. Indonesia and Sweden will review policy rates and settings this week. In China, July data released this week will include industrial production, retail sales, house prices, fixed asset investment and their unemployment rate. The People's Bank of China is also widely expected to leave its one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively This will come even though they have surprised with their bank lending actually contracting in July, only the third time ever this has happened and by far the largest retreat. Net new yuan loans fell by -¥340 bln in July when a weak no-change was expected (actually a minor +¥45 bln). July is often a lowish month for new bank lending but this latest data represents some real weaknesses. A slowing economy and poor consumer sentiment, particularly for housing, limited the demand for loans. About -¥460 bln of this fall was for consumer debt. But the swing also reflects the downturn for the traditional business sectors of the economy. Their tech sector commonly raises cash in the bond market instead of bank loans. So within this result there may be evidence of a structural shift. Taiwan said its economic activity came in +12.9% higher in Q2-2026 from a year ago, lower than the +15.4% rise in Q1-2026.GDP. It was still the second-best growth pace they have recorded in almost 50 years. Malaysia said its economic activity expanded +6.0% in Q2-2026, a rise from the +5.4% in Q1-2026 and better than the expected +5.7%. In India, the bank lending impulse has the taps open fully, with lending up more than +19% at the end of July from the same point a year ago. This is a new modern record rise rate, and to record levels. Across the Pacific, US retail sales took an unexpected dip in July from June. They fell -0.6% on that basis when a +0.1% rise to compliment June's rise was expected. This is a big miss and was the first decline since October 2025 and the largest in over a year. Weaker sales at online retailers, car dealers, petrol stations and electronics stores shifted the needle, so it was a broad based dip. From a year ago, these July sales were still up +5.2% from earlier gains. Also dipping was US consumer sentiment, but this is for August, so the dour mood is extending. The widely-watched University of Michigan survey came in back at levels that followed the US attacks on Iran, so the July rise was an anomaly. A small easing was expected, but not one this big. Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 4.2% in July to 4.3% this month. Inflation and inflation expectations are key for the Fed. The new boss Kevin Warsh may not want to talk about the elevated threats, but other regional governors are, some who vote. The Atlanta Fed's boss isn't one of those but she says inflation is too high and risks staying like that and embedding unless the Middle East situation resolves quickly. The Chicago Fed's boss is worried too. Current CPI is 3.4% officially, but the Cleveland Fed nowcasts the PCE measure of inflation and their latest update has it at over 3.7%. These levels are a long way from the mandated 2% policy rate and Warsh is likely to get out-voted when they next meet in Mid-September. Financial markets currently price in one chance in three of a +25 bps rise then. And for the record, current US petrol prices are now +5.7% higher than month-ago levels. Diesel is +11% higher on that same basis. Their inflation threat is not receding. Meanwhile the EU reported that Q2-2026, economic activity rose +0.4% in the euro area and by +0.5% in the overall EU compared with the previous quarter, up +1.0% and +1.2% respectively from a year ago. So recent activity is picking up, although in a way that was broadly anticipated. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.70%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday, up +5 bps for the week.  The price of gold is stable, now at US$4376/oz, up just +US$2 from Saturday, up +US$39 from this time last week. Silver has held at just over US$64.50/oz, up a net +US$1 for the week. Oil prices are unchanged from Saturday at just under US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$88.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$78 and US$83.50/bbl respectively, so a +6% weekly rise.  The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday at just under 58.9 USc and unchanged for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 83.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.5, unchanged from this time Saturday and very similar to a week ago. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,102and up +0.4% from this time Saturday, down -2.6% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been very low at just on +/-0.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Book a call: https://remnantfinance.com/calendarEmail us at info@remnantfinance.com or visit https://remnantfinance.com for more informationFOLLOW REMNANT FINANCEYoutube: @RemnantFinance (https://www.youtube.com/@RemnantFinance)Facebook: @remnantfinance (https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61560694316588)Twitter: @remnantfinance (https://x.com/remnantfinance)TikTok: @RemnantFinanceDon't forget to hit LIKE and SUBSCRIBEThe Fed cut rates and your mortgage went up. If that never made sense to you, this episode is the explanation. In part one of a two-part solo breakdown, Hans starts with the three interest rate stories dominating the macro headlines right now, the stubborn 10-year Treasury, Kevin Warsh's campaign to kill forward guidance, and Japan quietly letting its Treasury holdings roll off, and uses them as the entry point to a much bigger question: who actually sets the price of money?Chapters 00:00 – Opening Segment 01:00 – Setting up the interest rate primer 02:25 – Headline one: the 10-year Treasury refuses to fall 03:55 – Why a weak jobs report makes the stock market celebrate 06:40 – Headline two: Kevin Warsh is killing forward guidance 09:00 – Shorter statements, no dot plot, and a market that has to do its own homework 13:35 – Headline three: Japan stops rolling its Treasury holdings 16:10 – The food chain: it was never one dial 20:25 – The fed funds rate is banks lending each other reserves overnight 25:25 – The dual mandate, CPI versus PCE, and how inflation gets measured 29:35 – Reserve requirements are now zero 32:15 – IORB: the floor the Fed actually sets 37:55 – The reverse repo facility and the discount rate ceiling 39:20 – The repo market: a pawn shop moving trillions a night 42:45 – LIBOR, the 2012 scandal, and the move to SOFR 44:10 – Primary dealers and the price of the golden ticket 47:00 – What QE really is and why the Fed can't buy direct from Treasury 52:00 – Inside a Treasury auction: bids, clearing yield, and the tail 57:05 – Recap and what's coming in part twoKey TakeawaysThere is no such thing as "the" interest rate. There is a stack of them, and the Fed only has real influence over the short end. Everything between the Fed and your mortgage is a chain of institutions taking the rate handed to them, adding yield, and passing it down. The fed funds rate is not a number anybody types into a computer. It is a real market rate set between banks settling reserves overnight, and the Fed steers it with incentives rather than force. Forward guidance has been the Fed's most powerful tool, and it costs nothing to use. Saying the conditions might align for a cut can move markets as effectively as an actual cut, which is why Warsh trimming statements and abandoning the dot plot amounts to a real policy shift. The repo market, not the fed funds market, is where the money actually is. Fed funds is a small, uncollateralized club of primary dealers. Quantitative easing is the one situation where "printing money out of thin air" is literally accurate. The Fed is barred from buying new issues directly from Treasury, so the twenty-four primary dealers absorb whatever the auction does not clear and the Fed buys from them with newly created reserves. Treasury auctions price on demand, not decree. Treasury announces the quantity, buyers submit the yields they will accept, bids fill from lowest to highest, and the yield on the last dollar sold becomes the yield everybody gets.

Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin begin this episode by analyzing the powerful role earnings are playing in driving the U.S. stock market higher and what that means for investors. Liz Ann highlights that S&P 500 earnings growth is tracking around 51% for the second quarter, an unusually strong pace outside of a post-recession recovery. Collin explains why Schwab expects a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, with short- and longer-term Treasury yields likely remaining elevated as the economy stays resilient and inflation remains above the Fed's target. Then Collin sits down with former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Dr. Richard Clarida. They discuss how the Fed thinks about inflation, labor markets, supply shocks, productivity, and AI. Clarida argues that policymakers are trying to determine whether today's inflation pressures are temporary or indicative of a higher underlying trend. He also discusses the transition to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, potential changes to Fed communications, and why AI could be inflationary in the near term but ultimately disinflationary through improved productivity over the next several years. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Currencies are speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.  Diversification, rebalancing, and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions  ISM refers to the Institute for Supply Management. (0826-VELR) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week's easing was cyclical. The things that hardened were structural. That's the week in a sentence.Subscribe to Hypernormal Times for free on Substack.For your capital markets training needs, visit my friends at Finance Talking.Markets spent five days exhaling — a soft CPI, a softer PPI, the AI trade roaring back — while quietly signing up for an indefinite oil siege, a $2 trillion deficit funded at the worst prices since before the financial crisis, and a boom in structured credit that rhymes uncomfortably with 2008. This week: the stagflation trap the Fed can't lever its way out of; Nvidia becoming "the bank of mum and dad" for the AI industry as Wall Street securitises the boom; why the market celebrated a number the Fed doesn't even target; fiscal dominance on the tape; and Japan's cheap-money anchor starting to drag. Plus the cheque-writers vs the cheque-cashers, and a British silly-season coda.Commentary and information for serious active investors — not advice. Do your own due diligence.Keywords: stocks, markets, capital, investing, macro, stagflation, fiscal dominance, AI bubble, Nvidia, credit spreads, core PCE, Federal Reserve, Treasury yields, Bank of Japan, oil, Strait of Hormuz.This podcast explores stocks, markets, and capital, examines the role of gold in finance, unpacks tax policy and economics, discusses pathways to financial freedom and retirement, explains how interest rates affect investing, features insights from financial advisers, analyzes inflation, recession, and market volatility, covers the actions of central banks, evaluates different assets, addresses inheritance planning, reviews portfolio construction with bonds and an isa, assesses long-term returns and allocation strategies, explores macro trends, and helps listeners understand risk and pensions.

Marley Kayden and Sam Vadas discuss July's flat wholesale inflation report and what it could mean for the Fed's path forward. They also break down major market movers, including Workday's (WDAY) surge on acquisition speculation, Lenovo's strong earnings-driven rally, and JD.com's (JD) decline despite an earnings beat. Investors are now focused on upcoming PCE inflation and retail sales data for the next clues on the economy.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

S&P 500 futures rose after weaker US labor readings coincided with a pullback in Treasury yields, signaling easier financial conditions. Investors read the softer jobs data as easing inflation pressure, which can support equities and raise expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Lower yields influence bank pricing tied to the prime rate and affect SBA 7(a) loans, venture debt terms, and corporate bond issuance. Investment banks may see improved conditions for new high-yield and investment-grade offerings if volatility stays contained. Founders should stress test revenue, adjust hiring, and evaluate refinancing or extending maturities while monitoring BLS reports, CPI, PCE, and upcoming FOMC communications.Learn more on this news by visiting us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Atlassian soaring 30% after declaring "AI is the best thing that's ever happened" to the company with credit consumption doubling quarter-over-quarter, the ECB reportedly blindsided after Treasury sold euros rather than dollars in last week's yen intervention with senior officials calling it an unprecedented breach of monetary cooperation conventions, Microchip Technology rising 9% on accelerating data center demand and a long multi-year upcycle across aerospace, defense, industrial, and automotive, Natera jumping 15% on accelerated MRD testing, Elon Musk's new $16.8 billion Terafab chip facility in Texas backed by SpaceX and Tesla, SK Hynix's $38 billion capacity expansion to ease the memory shortage, reports that Nvidia is testing lower-memory versions of its next-gen Rubin Ultra GPU, upcoming changes to the PCE calculation expected to lower reported inflation by up to 30bps, today's jobs report, and new US intelligence suggesting Putin could test NATO's resolve with a limited incursion.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge is getting a makeover, and the result may please investors who would benefit from interest rate cuts, which is probably a majority of investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to look into how this change may play out for the markets.

In this episode, We discuss why underlying U.S. inflation appears contained despite elevated core PCE readings, and what that may mean for Fed policy.​‌ The discussion and content provided within this podcast is intended for informational purposes only and may not be appropriate for all investors. Reliance upon information provided in a podcast is at the sole responsibility of the listener. The information included herein is not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, a forecast, research, investment advice or a recommendation for any specific PIMCO or other security, strategy, product or service. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investors should speak to their financial advisors regarding the investment mix that may be right for them based on their financial situation and investment objective. Podcasts may involve discussions with non-PIMCO personnel and such content contain the current opinions of the speaker but not necessarily those of PIMCO. Other podcasts may consist of audio recording of an existing PIMCO article and such material contains the current opinions of the manager. The opinions expressed in all podcasts are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. For additional important information go to CMR2026-0521-5513952-T

From short-term interest rates to long-term bond yields, the Fed's credibility is being tested. Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets discussed inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's outlook, and the options ahead.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today: Can the Fed hold the line? It's Wednesday, August 5th at 2pm in London. The Federal Reserve has a difficult job. The U.S. economy is a complex and varied ecosystem that covers everything from brain surgery to your burger order. The Fed is asked to keep prices stable and people employed using, for the most part, just one simple tool. A short-term interest rate, and without any control over what government policy or global events might bring. Currently, the Fed probably feels pretty good about its success with one half of this – in the job market, given that the unemployment rate is near historical lows. But it probably feels less successful about price stability. Over the last five years, overall prices in the U.S. economy have risen over 20 percent based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure. That's roughly double the increase that a goal of 2 percent annual inflation would otherwise bring. Into this complexity steps a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. He has emphasized two changes for his tenure. First, that inflation is too high and needs to come down. And second, that the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market, which Chair Warshkeep thinks has helped contribute to investors potentially taking too much risk while also restricting the Fed's options to act. What markets are now processing is a potential tension between these two goals. After all, high inflation is an immediate issue. In a world where the Fed is hoping to keep price increases at about 2 percent per year, their preferred measure, PCE inflation, is rising more than 3 percent on an annualized basis over the last three, six, and 12 months. In the latest ISM Manufacturing Survey, [the] measure of price increases among manufacturers is well above normal. In the face of that, one option for the Fed to combat this inflation would have been to raise interest rates. It didn't do that. Another would be to suggest that it was very close to taking action and likely to move soon. It didn't do that either. Indeed, our economists think that the market took Chair Warsh's lack of guidance and action at the most recent Fed's meeting to suggest a pretty high bar for rate hikes; and even the potential to redefine the Fed's 2 percent inflation target in favor of something more general and unspecified. The result was a market reaction that would suggest less focus on inflation. The prospects for rate hikes were reduced, the yield curve steepened, led by a sell-off of long-end yields, measures of expected inflation rose, and the U.S. dollar weakened. In the days since, markets have settled a bit. But the result is going to be a market that is now going to be much more sensitive to incoming inflation data. If that inflation data moderates in the second half of this year, as we at Morgan Stanley expect, then the Fed's approach could look justified – as the data suggests that neither action nor more communication about what they're going to do is necessary. But if inflation doesn't cooperate, the challenge becomes immediate. Christopher Waller, another member of the Fed, recently said that "Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option." The market will expect action and expect a framework explaining that action. Until that point, our rate strategists think that yield curves will continue to steepen. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Needlessly, there is a global Parkinson's disease pandemic on the rise. But it is unnatural and this incurable neurological disease can be prevented with environmental protections and prioritizing a toxin-free ecosystem if we clean up our air pollution and stop using certain degreasers and insecticide chemicals often used in dry cleaning, mechanics, golf courses, farming, and the military (especially TCE, PCE, and Paraquat). This is explained by the passionate medical doctor Dr. Ray Dorsey. In this lively dialogue with In Tune to Nature host Carrie Freeman, Dr. Dorsey shares key insights from his 2025 book “The Parkinson's Plan: A New Path to Prevention and Treatment” which he wrote with fellow neurologist Dr. Michael Okun. You can find out more at https://pdplan.org/ (where you can join the PD Avengers advocacy movement to prevent Parkinson's, as we are all at risk). https://www.pdavengers.com/ This show is in honor of Carrie's dad's birthday, as he has been living with Parkinson's disease the last 15 years (cutting short his beloved architecture career -- we worked on his website together), likely caused by exposure to the TCE dry cleaning chemical polluting the Marine Corps training base Camp LeJeune in North Carolina, where he served back in 1964. Dr. Dorsey explains how this water pollution and its devastating cover-up occurred between the 1950's to 1980's, poisoning and sickening hundreds of thousands of Marines and local civilians! Camp LeJeune victims can and should apply for reparations. Dr. Dorsey also shares how, sadly, other service members, like those in the Air Force, are also at higher risk of contracting Parkinson's (like Carrie's uncle Ray, on her mom's side, a retired Air Force Colonel and veteran of the Vietnam war). Our service members deserve to be protected from chemical harms! But all of us (humans and other animals) are at risk in our daily lives, often unknowingly, and humans can take actions (at home and work, in our towns, and with who we vote for) to reduce these toxins in our environment; for guidance, in the latter half of this 75-minute episode, Dr. Dorsey shares hopeful tips from the book's "Parkinson's 25" list of actions, such as: buying organic foods (avoiding animal-based foods as much as possible) and washing produce well and with veggie washes; filtering your drinking water and using an air purifier; testing indoor air and water quality, especially if your water comes from a well, specifically testing for TCE, PCE, and insecticide chemicals; avoiding living, working, and schooling near dry cleaners that use Perc/PCE; avoiding being near or on golf courses that use a lot of chemical insecticides, and not using insecticides in your own home or garden; finding out Superfund (toxic cleanup) sites in our neighborhoods and making sure they are labeled; and voting for political leaders who will make environmental wellbeing, toxin-free ecosystems, and public health a priority over unregulated industry and its devastating (lethal) chemical use (meaning, industry regulation for safety standards is required, and Dr. Dorsey shows how have we have successfully done this in the past, like with DDT...thank you, Rachel Carson). If American listeners hang in for the last 10 minutes of the show, Carrie shares EPA websites and a news report on the PCE and TCE ban that Pres. Biden's EPA put in place, and the extent to which the trump admin is currently stalling its implementation (with a chemical industry lobbyist that he put in charge, weakening the EPA's public health priorities). Who you vote for matters and we should expect our government leaders to prioritize life. Do they?  FYI: there are government/EPA emails for PCE and TCE: PCE.TSCA@EPA.gov and TCE.TSCA@epa.gov "In Tune to Nature" is an hour-long radio show airing Wednesdays at 6pm Eastern Time on 89.3FM-Atlanta radio and streaming worldwide on wrfg.org (Radio Free Georgia, a nonprofit indie station) hosted by me, Carrie Freeman, or friend Melody Paris. The show's website and my contact info can be found at https://wrfg.org/intunetonature/  While there, consider donating to Radio Free Georgia, a 50+ year old progressive, non-commercial, indie radio station, run largely by volunteers like me and Melody -- radically candid and compassionate. And remember to take care of yourself and others, as no Earthling deserves to live in a toxic world. Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed on In Tune to Nature do not necessarily reflect those of WRFG, its board, staff, or volunteers.

Las Trece Rosas fueron trece jóvenes (18-29 años), militantes de las Juventudes Socialistas Unificadas y el PCE, fusiladas por la dictadura de Francisco Franco en Madrid el 5 de agosto de 1939, cuatro meses después de finalizar la guerra civil española.

Sarah Urbut is a physician-scientist at Harvard Medical School and the Massachusetts General Research Institute. She and her colleagues published a landmark paper in Nature on patient health journeys for 3 different cohorts—the Mass General Brigham patients, the UK Biobank, and the All of Us research program—with a cumulative 683,000 individuals, 348 diseases, and up to 52 years of follow-up. Integrating electronic medical records and polygenic risk scores (N=36). An AI model was developed and validated called ALADYNOULLI, with each individual represented latent disease signatures (N=21), mathematically and biologically driven. An example of a patient's dynamic life journey (health arc) is provided in the Figure below (adapted from the paper, made with NotebookLM). The longitudinal story for each individual is key here. Using a Gaussian process, the risk continually shifts like a GPS navigation when you make a wrong turn and you are re-routed. Considerable effort was dedicated to addressing selection bias with inverse probability weighting.Here are 20 temporal pattern signatures for the UK Biobank cohort, which help to provide the biologic mechanism of a person's disease, as shown for multiple conditions like heart attack, breast cancer, and depression. That is, the same disease phenotype can link to different genomic pathway underpinnings. An example for breast cancer could be related to signature 8 or signature 7; the latter tied to inflammation and metabolic abnormalities. This biological pattern could also be used to detect likely medication failure (such as SSRI treatment for depression) and predict rare diseases.In fact, the model was used to discover genomic signatures for different diseases, as shown below.This model predicted 1 and 10-year risk of diseases at the individual level and far surpassed routinely used clinical prediction calculators such as the pooled cohort equation (PCE) for coronary artery disease (0.89 vs 0.68, respectively, 1-year risk ) and the GAIL model for breast cancer (0.783 vs 0.54, respectively). ALADYNOULLI also surpassed accuracy for precision when compared with the recent Delphi-2M model that I wrote about hereThe ALADYNOULLI paper is packed with information and equations and is not easy to get through without a sophisticated math background. That's why the summary infographic below (made by Notebook LM) may be helpful to grasp its main findings Prediction of Your Health Trajectory in Context The new model substantively adds to many other recent reports that include Delphi 2M, APOLLO, and AURORA that predict future health events up to 20 years out. Each of these models were different with respect to inputs, how patient data were represented (tokens, embeddings, or latent states), and prediction outputs as briefly summarized in the Table I made below. Notably, the inputs are complementary and likely additive, such that the deeper and longer (longitudinally) the data re for each individual, the better predictive accuracy will be possible. Adding to these models are many specific disease prediction (e.g. cancer, asthma, diabetes, neurodegenerative diseases) and sources of data (such as sleep lab, wearables, or high-throughput proteomics).We are now seeing intense efforts at medical forecasting which will continue to evolve and something that was not previously possible in patient care. What I mean is that we could provide a rough sense of a patient's risk for, let's say Alzhiemer's disease, but could not temporally place when it might occur. Age 65 or 95? It makes a huge difference. And so does the ability to apply counterfactuals, what-if scenarios for the individuals to reduce the risk, markedly defer a condition's appearance, or even fully prevent it. That's why ALADYNOULLI adds yet another dimension, different methodology, multiple patient cohorts, and novel findings that further add to a new prediction and prevention dimension of medical practice. It couldn't have been done with multimodal AI.Note to readers: I wrote this post entirely. There was no AI used except to generate 3 Figures by Notebook LM (Figure 1,3 and 4) as noted. Figure 2 above is from the Supplemental information of the paper. I have no COI related to this post.******************************A big thanks to Ground Truths subscribers from every US state and 212 countries. Your subscription to these free essays and podcasts makes my work in putting them together worthwhile. If you're not a subscriber, please join!If you found this interesting PLEASE share it!Paid subscriptions are voluntary and all proceeds from them go to support Scripps Research. They do allow for posting comments and questions, which I do my best to respond to. Please don't hesitate to post comments and give me feedback. Let me know topics that you would like to see covered.Many thanks to those who have contributed—they have greatly helped fund our summer internship programs for the past two years. It enabled us to accept and support a record number of 61 summer interns here with us now! These are high school, college and medical students selected from thousands of applicants. We couldn't do this expanded program without the funds coming in through Ground Truths.And thank you Harshi Peiris, Ph.D., DOCTOR KLOVER

Mortgage rates are on the move after 3 Federal Reserve officials voted to hike rates this week, the largest dissent within the Fed since 1970. If you're a homebuyer, homeowner, or realtor trying to figure out where mortgage rates are headed next, this is the update you need to watch.In this episode, I break down exactly why mortgage rates jumped to 6.77% today, why the Federal Reserve is split on hiking rates even as inflation cools, and why oil prices tied to the Iranian conflict are quietly driving Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher. I also walk through this week's economic data, next week's calendar, and what I'm personally advising my clients to do right now if they're under contract or thinking about locking in a rate.Here's what I cover:

Those Long-Term Chip Deals May Not Be as Secure as Investors Are Led to Believe When you listen to memory chip companies like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology discuss their businesses, they often make it sound like customer contracts—some extending as long as five years—are essentially set in stone. Unfortunately, that's not entirely true. Yes, these companies have long-term agreements in place, but contracts in this industry are often renegotiated when market conditions change. If demand for memory chips weakens significantly, chip manufacturers have a strong incentive to work with their customers rather than strictly enforce every contractual commitment. The reason is simple: preserving long-term customer relationships is often far more valuable than maximizing short-term revenue. Imagine a customer that suddenly doesn't need as many chips because its own sales have slowed. If a supplier forces that customer to accept unwanted inventory, those chips may simply sit in a warehouse until demand recovers. By the time the customer needs additional chips, it may choose to reduce future orders or move business to a competitor that proved to be more flexible during difficult times. Competitors are always looking for opportunities to gain market share. If one supplier refuses to work with its customers, another is usually willing to offer better pricing or more favorable terms. Losing a major customer over a rigid interpretation of a contract can cost far more in future profits than making temporary concessions during a downturn. This isn't just theory and it has happened before. During the COVID-era, many long-term agreements were adjusted as demand shifted. Rather than forcing customers to take products they no longer needed, suppliers often renegotiated delivery schedules and purchasing commitments to preserve long-term partnerships. The same principle applies across many industries. Companies frequently modify or delay large commercial agreements when business conditions change. While contracts provide a framework, successful businesses understand that maintaining trust with key customers is often more important than enforcing every clause to the letter. Investors should remember that a signed contract does not necessarily guarantee future revenue will be recognized exactly as originally planned. Management teams often emphasize the value of their long-term agreements during earnings calls, but those agreements can evolve if market conditions deteriorate. At the end of the day, great businesses understand that customer relationships are built over years but can be damaged in a matter of weeks. In many cases, giving a customer flexibility during a downturn is a much better investment than insisting on strict contract enforcement. That's why investors should view long-term chip contracts as valuable, but not invincible.   Why Index Investing Could Leave You Disappointed Long Term I often hear people say, "Just buy the S&P 500 and forget about it. You'll be fine." While that sounds simple, investing is rarely that easy. Many investors don't fully understand how an index works or why it has performed so well in recent years. The S&P 500 has been driven largely by a handful of technology and AI companies. By blindly investing in the index, many people are simply participating in a momentum strategy without realizing it. Very little thought is given to what those 500 companies are actually worth. There is no effort to trim positions that have become extremely expensive or overly concentrated. As valuations climb, the index simply gives those companies an even larger weighting, leaving investors with greater exposure to the stocks that have already gone up the most. Some people respond by saying, "I won't put everything in the S&P 500. I'll diversify into other index funds." But once you go down that road, investing becomes much more complicated and you'll likely underperform the S&P 500. Should you own an international index? A European index? A bond index? A growth index? A value index? Small-cap funds? REITs? There are hundreds of ETFs and mutual funds to choose from. Now you have another challenge: deciding how much to allocate to each one. When your portfolio declines will you understand why? More importantly, will you know what to do next? Many investors don't, and that uncertainty often leads to emotional decisions at exactly the wrong time. This is why I prefer managing a portfolio of individual value-oriented stocks, combined with money market funds and selected real estate investment trusts (REITs). That approach still provides diversification, but I understand what each investment is worth and why I own it. In my view, that's a much better foundation than owning five or ten different index funds without truly understanding what's inside them or how they're valued. Another common argument for index investing is lower fees. While fees certainly matter, they shouldn't be the only factor. The number that ultimately matters is your total return after all fees and expenses. A lower fee doesn't automatically translate into better long-term performance. If you own index funds, take some time to look under the hood. Do you really understand what you own? Do you know which sectors dominate your portfolio, which companies make up the largest holdings, and how expensive those businesses are today? If the answer is no, don't assume you'll be comfortable when the market experiences its next major decline. Investors who don't understand what they own are often the first to panic, and that confusion can lead to costly investment mistakes.   The U.S. economy is still in much better shape than many people think. This week brought three major events for investors: GDP, PCE inflation, and the Federal Reserve meeting. While the headlines may have sounded mixed, the underlying data still paints a healthy consumer. Second-quarter GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, below economists' expectations. At first glance, that may seem disappointing. But when you look under the hood, the economy continues to show resilience. Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, increased 3.2% after a weak first quarter where it only climbed 0.5%. That tells me the American consumer is still in good shape, and that's one of the biggest reasons the economy continues to avoid the recession that so many have been predicting. Major drags on the headline GDP figure included government spending, which reduced growth by 0.14 percentage points, as well as the more volatile components of trade and the change in private inventories, which subtracted 1.01 and 0.67 percentage points, respectively. Inflation remains the biggest challenge. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, core PCE, increased 3.3% over the past year. While that's an improvement from where we've been, it's still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. I continue to believe inflation will remain sticky until energy prices become more stable. Energy impacts transportation, manufacturing, and virtually every supply chain, so it's difficult to see inflation falling sustainably while energy costs remain volatile. The Fed, as expected, left interest rates unchanged. What stood out wasn't the decision, it was the growing disagreement among policymakers. The 3 dissents that voted for a 25-basis point increase highlight just how uncertain the economic outlook remains. When inflation is still elevated but the economy continues to grow, there isn't an easy policy answer. One thing I do like so far is Kevin Warsh's changes at the Fed. I like the simplified statement, the encouragement of differing viewpoints, and rather than projecting absolute confidence in economic forecasts, he has acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding them. That's a refreshing change. Economic forecasting has never been an exact science, and I would rather have a Fed Chair who recognizes the limitations of those projections than one who pretends they are precise. What's surprising is how quickly some of the talking heads have claimed Warsh already has a credibility problem. I don't see it that way. Credibility isn't about making bold predictions that later need to be revised. It's about being honest about what we know, what we don't know, and allowing incoming data to guide policy. The takeaway for investors is simple: don't let one headline drive your investment decisions. The economy continues to expand, consumers are still spending, inflation remains stubborn, and the Fed is navigating a difficult policy environment. Looking beneath the surface is often where you'll find the real story.   Leverage Is Fuel... Until It Becomes the Fire The last few weeks have been a reminder that leverage looks like a wonderful tool on the way up... but it's a devastating one on the way down. FINRA's new margin rules have effectively replaced the 25-year-old Pattern Day Trader rule, allowing traders with as little as $2,000 to make unlimited day trades using intraday margin. While this opens the door for more retail participation, it also means more investors have access to leverage, something that has historically magnified both gains and losses. This is a big problem considering FINRA margin debt climbed 49% year over year to another record in June of roughly $1.5 trillion. This comes as investor net credit balances have fallen to a record negative $1.06 trillion. In other words, investors collectively owe more on margin than they have sitting in cash accounts. For comparison's sake, in March 2000 this measure stood at a negative $0.13 trillion. That's an aggressive setup if volatility returns. We also saw this past week the spectacular collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-focused hedge fund, Situational Awareness, which shows what can happen when conviction is paired with excessive leverage. The near 25-year-old Aschenbrenner was painted as a genius with strong credentials like being Columbia University's valedictorian at age 19. His fund was launched in July 2024 and he had no experience managing money before that. Before this month's decline the fund had gains of more than 1,000% since inception. The fund used tons of leverage with some saying as much as 400% to build massive positions in AI and semiconductor stocks while shorting stocks in the software space like Adobe. The problem is when names like Coreweave, Nebius, and Sandisk fell more than 50% from their highs and the software stocks rallied, margin calls forced the liquidation of most of its public equity portfolio. The result was staggering considering the fund peaked at above $45 billion in assets and with the selloff they plunged to around $10 billion. This forced a fire sale of assets at a discount to Ken Griffin's Citadel. Some speculate that the forced selling may have helped create the bottom. Once one of the market's largest leveraged sellers had finished liquidating, the selling pressure eased and many AI stocks staged a sharp rebound. Others believe the selling is not over as Michael Burry reportedly used Thursday's powerful rally as an opportunity to increase several of his bearish positions in Micron, Nvidia and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. Whether he's ultimately right or wrong remains to be seen, but it's a reminder that some experienced investors still believe AI-related valuations and leverage remain stretched.   Here Come the Robots! Robots have been making their way into manufacturing for decades. The first industrial robotic arm, called Unimate, was installed in 1961 on the assembly line at a General Motors plant in Trenton, New Jersey. But today's robots are very different. They're no longer just stationary robotic arms bolted to the factory floor, they're starting to look and move like humans. That reality is beginning to make workers uneasy. At a Hyundai Motor plant in South Korea, employees have gone on a partial strike, with concerns over automation playing a role. Hyundai recently unveiled its humanoid robot, Atlas, which stands 6'2", weighs about 200 pounds, can lift up to 110 pounds, and can continuously carry nearly 70 pounds. It's easy to understand why workers are wondering what these machines could mean for their jobs. South Korea is already the world leader in industrial robot adoption, with approximately 1,220 industrial robots for every 10,000 manufacturing employees. By comparison, the United States has around 307 robots per 10,000 workers. One statistic that surprised me was China, which currently has only about 166 industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers. If Elon Musk has anything to say about it, those numbers could change dramatically over the next several years. Tesla is aggressively developing its humanoid robot, Optimus, with the goal of having it help build vehicles in its factories before long. If that vision becomes reality, other manufacturers will almost certainly follow. The idea of humanoid robots can be unsettling, but the transition is likely to be slower than many people expect. Industry forecasts suggest that global annual production of humanoid robots could reach roughly 1.2 million units by 2030. While that sounds like a large number, it's still a tiny fraction of the global workforce. So, we're probably still a few years away from living like The Jetsons. If you're not familiar with the cartoon, it debuted in September 1962 and imagined a future filled with flying cars and household robots. I guess I will have to wait a few more years to get a maid like the Jetsons had named Rosie the robot.   Financial Planning: Tax Relief Coming for Older Home Sellers? The federal home sale capital gain exclusion has remained unchanged since 1997, allowing homeowners to exclude up to $250,000 of gain if single or $500,000 if married filing jointly when selling a primary residence. With home values rising significantly over the past three decades, particularly in high-cost areas like California, many long-time homeowners now face substantial capital gains taxes when downsizing. A new proposal, the Nest Egg Protection Act, would increase the exclusion to $1 million for homeowners age 65 and older who have owned and lived in their home for at least 25 years. This would allow more seniors to keep the equity they've built over a lifetime. In addition to providing tax relief, the proposal could encourage more older homeowners to sell, increasing housing inventory and making homeownership more attainable for first-time buyers. While the legislation has not yet been enacted and homeowners should continue planning under current law, the proposal reflects a growing recognition that the existing exclusion no longer aligns with today's housing market.   Companies Discussed: International Business Machines Corporation (Ticker: IBM)

En Capital Intereconomía repasamos las claves de la jornada con la mirada puesta en la evolución de los mercados internacionales. Asia, Wall Street y Europa marcan el pulso de una sesión en la que los resultados empresariales, la política monetaria y el sector tecnológico vuelven a centrar la atención de los inversores. La sesión asiática viene marcada por la decisión del Banco de Japón de mantener los tipos de interés en el 1%, mientras que Wall Street recupera el terreno perdido gracias al impulso de las grandes tecnológicas y a un dato de inflación PCE que refuerza las expectativas del mercado. En Europa, las bolsas se preparan para abrir con ganancias, apoyadas en el buen comportamiento del sector tecnológico y en la caída del precio del petróleo. En el primer análisis de la mañana conversamos con Ignacio Vacchiano, country manager en Iberia de Leverage Shares, para valorar unos resultados empresariales que vuelven a situar a las grandes tecnológicas en el centro del mercado. Analizamos el beneficio récord de Apple, el fuerte crecimiento de Amazon impulsado por la inteligencia artificial, la corrección sufrida por Meta tras perder gran parte de su valor bursátil en pocos días y la elevada volatilidad que atraviesa el sector de los semiconductores. También repasamos la compra de MarketAxess por parte de la matriz de la Bolsa de Nueva York y el impacto que tiene el elevado coste de la financiación en Estados Unidos, situado en máximos de los últimos 19 años. Para finalizar, hacemos balance semanal de la actividad de la Comisión Europea junto a María Canal, portavoz de la Representación de la Comisión Europea en España. Analizamos las principales iniciativas comunitarias para hacer frente a la ola de incendios, así como las novedades regulatorias y estratégicas relacionadas con el desarrollo y la implantación de la inteligencia artificial en la Unión Europea.

Brian Szytel recaps a sharp market reversal day as prior rotation out of semiconductors flipped into a strong tech rebound, with semis up about 7% and several large names rising 10–15%. The Dow gained 613 points (+1.2%), the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.8%. A major software company posted blowout earnings and surged 16%—adding roughly $490B in market cap—though the broader software sector was down, making it an outlier. Despite escalations in the Iran war, WTI oil fell about 1%. He addresses an inflation question, distinguishing relative price shocks (tariffs/supply disruptions) from inflation as a broader monetary phenomenon, noting demand-pull, cost-push, and money-supply dynamics. Economic data included Q2 GDP at 1.5% (below expectations), jobless claims at 197K, PCE in line (headline 3.7% y/y; core 3.3% y/y), personal income +0.2%, and consumer spending +0.3%. 00:00 Market Reversal Recap 00:59 Tech and Earnings Surge 01:49 Oil and Geopolitics Oddities 02:03 What Inflation Really Means 03:16 Three Types of Inflation 03:30 Economic Data Rundown 04:41 Fed Outlook and Wrap Up 05:27 Closing and Tomorrow Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Fed may have found the easiest way to defeat inflation: redefine it. In this video, Taylor Kenney reveals how changes to the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measurement could make inflation appear lower on paper—even though everyday prices remain painfully high.Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcastor Call 866-349-3310 

With markets reeling after another flare up in U.S.-Iran tensions, earnings from Apple and Amazon are in focus. GDP and PCE reports also await as investors digest the Fed's pause. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for their own particular situation before making any investment or trading decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. For illustrative purposes only. Individual situations will vary. Not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Investing involves risk, including, for some products, more than your initial investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed-income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.  Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0131-0726) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation, Al Jazeera reported.Al Arabiya added that tangible results have not yet yielded results (Brent -0.1%)US equity futures are firmer across the board despite contrasting Meta (-8.8% pre-market) and Microsoft (+8.8% pre-market) earnings.DXY rebounds following the FOMC-induced losses, with focus now on PCE and GDP metrics.Fixed income benchmarks are lower across the board; BoE policy announcement awaits. Looking ahead, highlights include German Inflation Flash (Jul), US GDP Advance (Q2), PCE (Jun), Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25), Personal Spending (Jun), Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators (Jul), BoE Policy Announcement & MPR (Jul). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, Earnings from Bristol Myers Squibb, Mastercard, Apple & Amazon.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Mortgage rates, Federal Reserve, inflation, PCE report, oil prices, Iran conflict, Dow Jones, mortgage rate forecast — here's what moved rates today and what the Fed does next.The Fed just came out and the mortgage bond market took a wild ride because of it. Inflation on the PCE report came in better than expected at 3.3%, jobless claims stayed low, and the Dow is nearing 52,000... but the Fed is still showing a 60% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting. On top of that, the oil war overseas is still raging and could send rates jumping if it escalates. In this video I break down exactly what's driving mortgage rates right now and what I'm telling my own clients to do about it. How to read the mortgage rate chart and what moved rates after the Fed's comments The PCE inflation report and why 3.3% matters Jobless claims, continued claims, and what they signal about the job market Oil prices, the Iran conflict, and how a jump to $120 a barrel could affect your rate Why the Dow is near 52,000 despite the ongoing conflict The Fed's 60% odds of a hike at the next meeting, and what I'm advising clients with a signed contract right now I go deeper on this in my blog post, Is the Fed About to Trigger a Mortgage Rate Shock?: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/is-the-fed-about-to-trigger-a-mortgage-rate-shockChapters:0:00 Intro – Inflation, Oil War & What the Fed Does Next 1:30 The Rate Chart – What Happened After the Fed's Comments 3:15 PCE Inflation Breakdown (3.3% Reading) 5:15 Jobs Data, Oil Prices & the Iran Conflict Risk 7:30 Dow Nears 52,000, Fed's 60% Hike Odds & Locking Your Rate

En el episodio de hoy Juan Manuel de los Reyes y Valentina Orduz analizaron los datos los resultados trimestrales de Meta, cuyos ingresos superaron lo esperado, pero cuya acción se desplomó ante el enorme gasto en IA y una guía más débil. En contraste, repasaron el sólido trimestre de Microsoft, impulsado por Azure y la nube, que llevó a la acción a un fuerte rebote. También revisaron la decisión de la Reserva Federal, que mantuvo su tasa por quinta vez consecutiva en medio de tres votos disidentes que pedían un alza para contener la inflación y los datos macroeconómicos del PCE y GDP.

El cofundador de Blackbird Broker cree que el final de la corrección en los mercados puede estar a punto de producirse tras los datos del PCE estadounidense y las cuentas de Amazon.

Kevin Hincks does not see Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC raising interest rates for July. He points to recent economic data and consensus data for upcoming prints like core PCE he says tilts toward a pause. Kevin also outlines his expectations for Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) earnings and why AI ROI will be the point investors watch for the most. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This week on Stock Market Options Trading, Eric O'Rourke and Brian Terry break down the latest market action following geopolitical headlines, discuss why the recent SPX rally continues to stall, and share several option trading ideas they're watching this week.Topics covered include:Why the latest SPX gap higher failed and what it says about market sentimentCurrent gamma levels and key support/resistance zonesThis week's major economic events, including the FOMC meeting, GDP, PCE, and Consumer ConfidenceWhy intraday trend trading has become more challenging in recent weeksNew research showing stronger end-of-day trading opportunitiesEric's updated 0DTE trading approach and end-of-day Iron Condor strategyBrian's QQQ and Micron (MU) broken-wing put butterfly tradesManaging defined-risk option strategies during volatile marketsWhether you're trading SPX, QQQ, or individual stocks, this episode explores how current market conditions are changing the way we approach options trading and risk management.Resources Mentioned► Alpha Crunching: https://alphacrunching.com► Stock Market Options Trading Podcast: https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.netIf you enjoy systematic options trading, backtesting, and weekly market analysis, be sure to subscribe for new episodes every week.#SPX #OptionsTrading #StockMarket #0DTE #SPXOptions #Gamma #FOMC #IronCondor #QQQ #Micron #TradingPodcast

A Fed rate decision and a crowded earnings and economic calendar feature this week. Highlights include GDP and PCE data as well as earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for their own particular situation before making any investment or trading decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. For illustrative purposes only. Individual situations will vary. Not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Investing involves risk, including, for some products, more than your initial investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed-income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.  Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0131-0726) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

En nuestra Tertulia de Mercados hoy analizaremos la reunión de este martes de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos, donde se espera que mantengan los tipos en el rango del 3,50-3,75%. Además, será muy importante la publicación de la primera lectura del ritmo de crecimiento del PIB en el 2T del año y el índice de precios PCE de junio. Además, nuestros invitados desgranarán las principales ideas de inversión en renta fija y renta variable en 2026. En esta Tertulia contamos con Fernando Fernández-Bravo, responsable de ventas institucionales de Invesco, María Zamora, Client Director de GAM, Inés del Molino de la Peña.Business Development Manager de Aegon AM y Christian Rouquerol, co-head de Iberia de Tikehau Capital.

En Capital Intereconomía repasamos las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa en una jornada marcada por la atención al precio del petróleo, la temporada de resultados empresariales y las próximas referencias macroeconómicas en Estados Unidos. En el primer análisis de la mañana hablamos con Eduardo Bolinches, analista de Invertia, para valorar el comportamiento de los mercados y las perspectivas para los próximos días. Analizamos la creciente tensión en el precio del petróleo y su impacto sobre la inflación y los mercados financieros, las expectativas ante la nueva batería de resultados empresariales y las principales citas macroeconómicas de la semana en Estados Unidos, con el PIB y el índice PCE como grandes referencias para medir el estado de la economía y anticipar los próximos movimientos de la Reserva Federal. Para finalizar, en el análisis internacional conversamos con Enrique Navarro, analista experto en Geoestrategia y Defensa, para profundizar en la evolución del escenario geopolítico. Analizamos la pausa en las hostilidades entre Irán y Estados Unidos y sus implicaciones para la estabilidad en Oriente Medio, así como el atentado perpetrado por un islamista durante las celebraciones del Orgullo en Berlín y las consecuencias que este nuevo episodio de terrorismo puede tener para la seguridad europea.

Looking at clues from the past, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets examines how the recurring themes – from deregulation to volatility – are shaping markets and why every cycle still takes its own path.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, what can Odysseus teach us about investing? It's Friday, July 24th at 2pm in London.Like many of you, this week I saw The Odyssey. The enduring appeal of this story more than 2,700 years after it was composed is a reminder that some themes are universal. Pride, resourcefulness, determination, self-control, or the lack thereof, mattered to both an ancient Greek dinner party and resonate with anybody investing today.But drawing lessons from the past is also tricky. We do not have that much financial history, and markets contain too many variables for the same combination to align twice. Some judgment, art, and dare we say storytelling is always involved in deciding which historical periods best describe the present. Those disclaimers aside, we've argued in our year ahead outlook that 1997 to 1998 and 2005 to 2006 are some of the most useful templates for the current backdrop.That remains our view. They suggest a cycle that has further to run, equities outperforming credit, and a preference to own volatility. Both of these periods were defined by a sharp rise in corporate activity. That is certainly what we're seeing today.We forecast U.S. capital expenditure to rise 23 percent in 2026, and 26 percent in 2027. AI is the biggest driver of this spending but build-outs in energy infrastructure are also playing a role. And increased corporate CapEx is certainly a global story, especially in Asia.Then there's M&A, which also rose significantly in these two past historical periods. As recently as early 2024, global M&A volumes were unusually depressed, some of the lowest levels in over 30 years, adjusted for economic size. But that's no longer the case. And more recently, M&A is currently running up 64 percent relative to a year ago.Important current macroeconomic data also looks somewhat similar to these past two periods. The current levels of U.S. core PCE inflation, the unemployment rate, and the 10-year yield are pretty close to the averages seen in 1997, 1998, 2005, and 2006.And the U.S. 2s10s yield curve, well, it broadly flattened then, and it has broadly been flattening today. A third similarity, maybe less obvious but no less important, is deregulation. Both 1997 and 1998 and 2005 to 2006 saw significant financial deregulation. And we're seeing that again now. From the Basel Endgame to NAIC risk weights to Solvency II changes to savings reforms in Europe, Korea, and elsewhere, the current trend appears to be on a firmly deregulatory path.Even more simply, 1997 and 1998 and 2005 to 2006 provide interesting narrative bookends to two ways that I often hear the current environment being described. The late '90s? Well, that was defined by rising excitement around a transformational new technology – then the internet – and the prospect of a more productive future. Sound familiar? And the mid-2000s? Well, that was defined by a very unequal economy and rising consumer stress – but growth that was still supported by a seemingly inexhaustible investment demand from a rising market force. Then that force was emerging markets. Today, it's AI. Again, somewhat familiar. If these periods serve as a guide, the cycle probably has further to run, and corporate aggression should favor equities over credit.But if we learn anything from the trials of Odysseus, the journey can throw up plenty of surprises along the way. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

RenMac breaks down the case for a Fed hike next week — Neil Dutta's "Why Not Now?" call, with September already priced at 100% — as AI capex, rising oil, and tariffs push inflation the wrong way and Warsh weighs moving in his honeymoon. The team also discusses the momentum crash and why the bounce is better sold than endorsed, real yields zapping gold and duration, $100 oil as the Iran conflict shuts the Red Sea, tariff maneuvering after Section 122's expiry, rotation into banks and healthcare, and the week ahead in the July 29 FOMC and core PCE.

Preview of the Fed, BOE, BOJ and MAS and a segment discussing market risks with special guest Vijay Sundaram, Global Head of Front Office Risk & Control. We discuss the Fed and BOE remaining on-hold, US core PCE inflation easing, and the latest on UK fiscal plans. Central banks in Japan and Singapore are in focus; we think both are likely to pause, but it is a much closer call for MAS than BOJ. Special guest: Vijay Sundaram, our Global Head of Front Office Risk, speaks about market risks and how risk management is evolving. Chapters: US: 02:27, Europe: 09:21, Japan: 16:28, Rest of Asia: 20:40.

Yesterday's inflation report delivered a surprise. Headline prices fell sharply, but the important story was beneath the headline. This was not a gasoline story. Core inflation was unchanged for the month, and several categories that have kept inflation stubbornly high moved lower. For investors, that distinction matters because it changes the conversation around interest rates today.The new report is the Consumer Price Index, not the Personal Consumption Expenditures index that the Federal Reserve prefers. The PCE report still showed elevated inflation. But the CPI components give us a preview of where price pressure may be heading. Core CPI came in flat, compared with expectations for an increase. Core goods declined. Medical services, transportation services, used vehicles, and automobile insurance showed softness. Those are signs of broader disinflation, not merely cheaper oil.------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On Wednesday, July 15, Brian Szytel reports modest market gains (Dow +150, S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%) amid a positive early Q2 earnings tone, though Middle East tensions temper sentiment and momentum tech (semis and software) has been pressured. He highlights notable strength in financials, citing rising lending, M&A, and capital markets activity, with investment banking up about 30%, capital markets up over 15%, and financial earnings up over 6%, viewing this as a forward-looking sign of economic confidence. The day's key news was a second straight cooler-than-expected inflation report: PPI fell 0.3% vs flat expected and core rose 0.2% vs 0.4% expected, implying a favorable PCE read. He discusses potential market impacts if Strait of Hormuz disruption persisted (higher oil, inflation, rates; pressure on long-duration assets; benefits to U.S. production), while noting futures imply ~$75 oil in a year, and adds a strong Empire State manufacturing print (15.6 vs 8.4 expected). 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:23 Earnings Season Pulse 01:00 Financials Lead Strength 02:26 Cooler Inflation Data 03:40 Hormuz Risk Scenario 05:15 Futures Reality Check 05:28 Manufacturing Beat Wrap 05:57 Final Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful.Eric Pachman on Xhttps://x.com/EricPachmanData 4 The Peoplehttps://www.data4thepeople.com/Main topics coveredWhy the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market storiesWhy unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age AmericansThe decline in participation among older workers and menHow healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growthWhy Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending riskWhat occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare payThe differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleadingHow crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy pricesWhy falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retailWhat the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holdersHow Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research toolsTimestamps00:00 Intro04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth24:18 Why inflation is moving higher30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem44:05 Why diesel is the inflation risk that matters most48:34 The single-income stress test and consumer fragility54:42 Data 4 The People's nonprofit mission59:00 Building an AI research assistant for public data01:03:37 Where to follow Eric and Data 4 The PeopleLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.