Podcasts about PCE

This week, we're breaking down several key economic reports, including the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the first estimate of second-quarter GDP, and the PCE deflator—the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. It's been a data-heavy week, capped by the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday, where policymakers held rates steady and signaled a more cautious outlook on future rate moves.We're also joined by special guest Matthew Reed, CPA/ABV, for a post–tax season debrief. He shares key takeaways from the most recent filing season and walks us through major provisions in the One Big Beautiful Act, passed on July 4, highlighting the potential impact on both individual and business tax planning strategies.Plus, in Part 2 of our Evolution of Payments series, we dive into stablecoins—a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a steady value by being pegged to assets like the U.S. dollar. But if they're backed by dollars, why not just use dollars? We explore what sets stablecoins apart from more volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and why they're gaining traction in the financial world despite their dollar ties.Join hosts Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, Director of Research, and Managing Associates K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA, and D.J. Barker, CWS®, and Kelly-Lynne Scalice, a seasoned communicator and host, on Henssler Money Talks as they explore key financial strategies to help investors navigate market uncertainty.Henssler Money Talks — August 2, 2025  |  Season 39, Episode 31Timestamps and Chapters5:06: Fed Holds Rates, No Set Plan for a Future Rate Cut 14:42: Matthew Reed, CPA/ABV: Post-Tax Season Debrief 22:18: Matthew Reed, CPA/ABV: OBBBA Changes that Affect You43:23: Part 2, Evolution of Payments: StablecoinFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Henssler Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. 

This week on Money Wise, the Davidson brothers break down a jam-packed week on Wall Street as all three major indices posted losses. The Dow slid 2.9%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.4%, and the NASDAQ dipped 2.2%. Despite the week's red ink, year-to-date numbers remain positive. But the real story is the flurry of conflicting economic data. The second-quarter GDP came in hot at 3%, far above expectations, sparking debate about what that really means for the economy. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve opted to hold rates steady, just before two critical data releases: the PCE inflation measure and a weak jobs report that led to downward revisions of over 250,000 jobs and the abrupt firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. The Money Wise guys question the Fed's timing, dissects political posturing around the numbers, and wonder what's next for interest rate policy as economic pressure builds. Economic Confusion Grows Economic headlines were anything but straightforward this past week, leaving investors grappling with mixed signals. On one hand, the second-quarter GDP surprised to the upside at 3%, more than double the Fed's expectation, signaling strong economic growth. On the other hand, Friday's jobs report told a very different story, with weaker-than-expected hiring and major downward revisions to previous months totaling a loss of 258,000 jobs. The fallout? The Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner was abruptly fired late Friday, raising eyebrows about the politicization of economic data. The Federal Reserve, which held rates steady just before these major reports dropped, now faces renewed scrutiny for its timing and decision-making. With strength and weakness showing up simultaneously across key indicators, the economic picture remains as murky as ever. In the second hour, the Money Wise guys share The Best Investment Advice Ever . You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

¡Emprendeduros! En este episodio Rodrigo y Alejandro nos dan una actualización de mercado donde hablan del estatus del mercado, de los acuerdos comerciales y el día de la liberación parte 2, de la Reserva Federal, del PCE, PIB y reporte de empleos así como sus predicciones a lo que se viene. Para mas información sobre el fondo visita: https://emprendedurosventures.com/ Al final del episodio tenemos una actualización de una de las inversiones del Fondo de Emprendeduros - Lumen Sito: https://drinklumen.com/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/meetlumen/ ¡Síguenos en Instagram! Alejandro: https://www.instagram.com/salomondrin Rodrigo: https://www.instagram.com/rodnavarro Emprendeduros: https://www.instagram.com/losemprendeduros

Joe Mazzola says the market response to jobs data really told the story of the week despite updates on tariff policy and big tech earnings. Looking at the 3-month average of jobs data, Joe underlines that the U.S. economy hasn't seen figures this low since 2020 during the pandemic. He combines this week's labor data with PCE inflation metrics to posit the question: Do we have a slowing consumer?======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Market Recap and Economic Data Insights: July 31st Edition In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel recaps the market performance on July 31st, noting a modest downturn despite positive tech earnings. Key economic data discussed includes initial jobless claims, PCE inflation data, and a stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI number. The host also dives into how inflation and rate of return assumptions impact financial planning. The episode concludes with insights on the energy sector's reduced volatility and improved balance sheets, emphasizing the sector's potential for dividend growth. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:53 Economic Data Highlights 02:42 Inflation and Financial Planning Assumptions 04:22 Energy Sector Insights 06:13 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Big Tech boosting the S&P to record highs: Sara Eisen and David Faber broke down the latest on the data front (PCE, fresh Powell commentary on tariffs & inflation) with a special guest – Jim Cramer, joining the team ahead of a First On CNBC interview with the CEO of chip designer ARM as shares fall there on disappointing results. Plus: parsing through a deluge of earnings over the last 24 hours… RBC's U.S. Equity Strategy Head Lori Calvasina gave her take on it all – and why it's becoming a “stock picker's market” as companies navigate tariffs – while one big tech analyst along with CNBC's Steve Kovach broke down Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple this hour.  Also in focus: a blockbuster public debut at the New York Stock Exchange as Figma prices above the range. NYSE President Lynn Martin discussed all the action, the IPO pipeline, and a whole lot more in a wide-ranging deep-dive this hour. 

US equity futures are firmer with S&P up ~1%. Asia was mixed and European markets opened higher. The market focus remained on post-FOMC reactions and trade actions. Powell reiterated data-dependent stance on rate path in months ahead. Trump announced a South Korea trade deal with a 15% tariff that will also apply to autos and new investment commitments of $350B in US LNG, while threatening a 25% tariff on India. Trump also watered down 50% Brazil tariffs. Economic data showed Q2 GDP growth and ADP payrolls both beating forecasts, while core PCE inflation accelerated. China PMIs showed unexpected further deterioration in manufacturing and services, reinforcing concerns over domestic demand.Companies Mentioned: AbbVie, Atai Life Sciences, JD.com, CECONOMY, CSX Corp

US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, ending not far from worst levels. Big tech earnings provided a lot of support after well-received results from Meta and Microsoft, both further underpinning the AI secular growth theme. A busy morning of data included June core PCE up 0.26% m/m, in line with consensus, but hottest since February.

S&P Futures are showing strong gains this morning after outstanding earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META), both of which delivered results that surpassed expectations. Outside of tech, a majority of companies have delivered mixed or disappointing results. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell came across as hawkish in his press conference yesterday and indicated that the Fed is looking past the tariff situation by not raising rates. President Trump announced a trade deal with S. Korea. An agreement with Mexico remains fluid while an agreement with Canada appears unlikely. A federal appeal court will begin hearing oral arguments today on President Trumps claim that economic emergencies allow him the right to impose tariffs. The key economic data point for today will be the PCE report due out in the pre-market. On the earnings front, MSFT, META, WDC, EBAY & CVNA are higher after announcements. RACE, ARM, LRCX, WCOM, BUD, F, & HOOD are lower. After the bell today are earnings reports from AAPL, AMZN, KLAC, COIN, NET, ROKU, and RDDT.

As equities fade from Thursday's intraday highs, Joe Mazzola dissects the reaction to yesterday's FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's tonality in his press conference. That combined with the latest PCE data leads Joe to believe that the market "might not get a cut." On the tariff front, Joe says the 2Q earnings haven't been fully cycled in but does note more companies like General Motors (GM) factoring in projected effects on the bottom line. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady has sparked a mixed reaction. Joe Hegener and Arthur Laffer, Jr. weigh in on the implications for the economy. With concerns about tariffs and inflation still present, the duo discusses the potential for a rate cut and its potential impact on the market. They also touch on the latest PCE print, which showed a 4-month high in inflation, and what it may mean for future Fed moves.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kevin Hincks kicks off Morning Trade Live with a look inside the latest inflation data. June's PCE print revealed a slight rise in year-over-year numbers, but fell mostly in-line. He believes investors are in a directional tug-of-war with big tech earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms versus the latest batch of economic data. Kevin recaps the FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged and updates on the latest U.S. trade deal reached with South Korea.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-...Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-...Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/19192...Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplu...Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-net...Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

July 31, 2025 - Chase discusses wage inflation, China's policy support, and hot PCE. 

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Andre Dos Santos y Eugenio Garibay analizan las claves del panorama económico y corporativo tras una semana cargada de novedades. El episodio arranca con el análisis de la conferencia de Jerome Powell, presidente de la Reserva Federal, donde destacan las señales de cautela, la falta de consenso sobre futuros recortes de tasas y las presiones políticas de alto perfil que enfrenta la Fed.A continuación, discuten en detalle el dato recién publicado de PCE, el indicador de inflación favorito de la Fed, junto al pulso del consumo personal en EE.UU. El enfoque está en cómo estas cifras reflejan una economía que avanza, aunque el ahorro se debilita, y en qué medida esto condiciona la política monetaria futura.La conversación aterriza finalmente en las dos grandes tecnológicas que acaban de reportar resultados: Meta y Microsoft. Se revisa el extraordinario desempeño financiero de ambas, sorprendiendo al alza las expectativas del mercado, y se profundiza en cómo la inteligencia artificial está redefiniendo sus estrategias de inversión, su posicionamiento competitivo y el futuro de sus productos, desde la nube hasta los dispositivos conectados.

Overview: Tune into week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss a massive week of economic data including PCE inflationary data, strong earnings from mega cap tech firms of the "Magnificent Seven", and commentary from the Federal Reserve after holding interest rates steady for the time being. Stay tuned for more economic reporting and our thoughts!    Show Notes: 

In this value-packed episode of Money Moves, Matty A and Ryan Breedwell break down key economic updates, decode crypto and stock market cycles, and share real-world financial strategies to build and protect wealth in any environment.From the upcoming FOMC decision to what's really driving market momentum, the hosts dive deep into how investors should be thinking about interest rate shifts, housing stagnation, and crypto's evolving role in long-term portfolios. They also tackle the psychology behind investing success—and failure—including why retail investors underperform and how to overcome the common traps.Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting your journey, this episode blends economic insight with actionable takeaways that will help you make smarter financial decisions today.What You'll Learn in This Episode:[00:00] Why most people fail at investing—and how to keep it simple[01:47] The economic events shaping markets this week (FOMC, GDP, PCE & more)[02:29] Understanding market cycles in stocks and crypto[05:00] Why short-term bonds are signaling rate cuts—and what that means for investors[17:42] Real estate reality: delayed impact of monetary policy & home equity trap[26:15] The rise of the “renter nation” and affordability crisis explained[32:59] Proven wealth-building habits most people ignore[53:07] Bitcoin vs. Ethereum vs. Solana—what smart money is doing now[57:49] The 4 phases of the crypto market cycle (and where we are today)[65:07] How to avoid losing money in crypto during peak hype cyclesResources & Mentions:Get your free financial X-ray: Text X-RAY to 844-447-1555Learn more about the Wise Investor Mastermind in Napa: Text NAPA to 844-447-1555Visit: www.WiseInvestorVault.com for free tools & resourcesWant to access Matty A's private deals list? Text DEALS to 844-447-1555Final Thought:The game of wealth isn't reserved for the elite—it's about education, action, and consistency. Whether you're navigating stocks, real estate, or crypto, the key is to skill up and stay focused.Episode Sponsored By:Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/CRE MASTERMIND: Visit myfirst50k.com and submit your application to join!FREE CRE Crash Course: Text “FREE” to 844-447-1555FREE Financial X-Ray: Text  "XRAY" to 844-447-1555

As expected, the Fed did not change interest rates in its July meeting. However, one interesting result came from two Fed officials dissenting the decision, arguing that there should be a cut in July. It's the first time there were two dissenting votes in decades. Kevin Hincks talks about Fed chair Jerome Powell's path ahead to address the interest rate outlook, which includes the possibility of updating guidance at Jackson Hole. He also notes ways the calendar is playing against the Fed with core PCE data coming out on Thursday.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Lance reviews the Big News from the weekend, the trade accord between the US and the European Union, and previews the data that will drive markets this week: PCE report and a Fed meeting on tap. What will move markets? Commentary on the non-impact of Tariffs: Markets have already priced-in any change, as markets adapt. What the Fed says about QT/QE will matter. Lance shares another family drama episode, with retail therapy and a "people-cott" on Ulta make up. There is no reason to be overly bearish on markets for now; more people are calling for correction now (which means it will only be delayed further) as markets grind higher. Lance addresses YouTube Chatroom questions on an oversold market, and what to do with excess cash; money doesn't leave the market, it just moves around. * NOTE: The Real Investment Show will be 100% digital starting Monday, August 4, 2025. Please be sure you're SUBSCRIBED here to catch each episode! SEG-1: The Most Important Thing in Earnings Reports12:02 - Tesla Correction & Pre-market commentary SEG-2: The Real Impact of Tariffs & Market Movers SEG-3a: Roberts Family Drama & The Ulta Guy SEG-3b: Will Correction Be Delayed by More Expectations? SEG-4: Chat Q & A: Oversold markets & What to do with Cash Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvF7rNkJdX8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Japan Financing Seals The Deal And Toyota Jumps" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/japan-financing-seals-the-deal-and-toyota-jumps/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Prelude to Pullback" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhyvfiwBPG8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are You a Meme Stock Mania DORK?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-TT_XaVhgI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=3&t=185s ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, "Savvy Social Security Planning," August 23, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/pbx9RwqV8cjF ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MarketReversion #InvestorComplacency #MovingAverages #VIX #Volatility #InvestorExhaustion #20DMA #BigTechEarnings #TechStocks2025 #EarningsSeason #StockMarketNews #FAANG #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Lance reviews the Big News from the weekend, the trade accord between the US and the European Union, and previews the data that will drive markets this week: PCE report and a Fed meeting on tap. What will move markets? Commentary on the non-impact of Tariffs: Markets have already priced-in any change, as markets adapt. What the Fed says about QT/QE will matter. Lance shares another family drama episode, with retail therapy and a "people-cott" on Ulta make up. There is no reason to be overly bearish on markets for now; more people are calling for correction now (which means it will only be delayed further) as markets grind higher. Lance addresses YouTube Chatroom questions on an oversold market, and what to do with excess cash; money doesn't leave the market, it just moves around. * NOTE: The Real Investment Show will be 100% digital starting Monday, August 4, 2025. Please be sure you're SUBSCRIBED here to catch each episode!  SEG-1: The Most Important Thing in Earnings Reports12:02 - Tesla Correction & Pre-market commentary SEG-2: The Real Impact of Tariffs & Market Movers  SEG-3a: Roberts Family Drama & The Ulta Guy  SEG-3b: Will Correction Be Delayed by More Expectations? SEG-4: Chat Q & A: Oversold markets & What to do with Cash   Hosted by RIA Advisors RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO,   Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvF7rNkJdX8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2&t=1s  ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Japan Financing Seals The Deal And Toyota Jumps" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/japan-financing-seals-the-deal-and-toyota-jumps/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Prelude to Pullback" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhyvfiwBPG8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are You a Meme Stock Mania DORK?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-TT_XaVhgI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=3&t=185s ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, "Savvy Social Security Planning," August 23, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/pbx9RwqV8cjF ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MarketReversion #InvestorComplacency #MovingAverages #VIX #Volatility #InvestorExhaustion #20DMA #BigTechEarnings #TechStocks2025 #EarningsSeason  #StockMarketNews #FAANG #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Podcast del programa Imagen Empresarial transmitido originalmente el 28 de julio del 2025. Conduce Rodrigo Pacheco. Los entrevistados de hoy: Entrevista: Rosa Maria Rubio Kantun, analista Económico en Monex Temas: **De cara a la publicación de los datos del PIB al 2do trimestre de 2025 en MEX y EUA, ¿Qué expectativas se tienen para estos reportes? **De igual manera se publicará el reporte de inflación PCE de junio, ¿Qué implicaciones tiene un posible repunte de este dato y cómo podría reaccionar la Reserva Federal si la PCE repunta? **Ante la incertidumbre comercial y la proximidad con el deadline de la imposición de aranceles estadounidenses el 1 de agosto, ¿Qué acuerdos podrían ser más favorables para el entorno económico global y por qué? **¿Qué países se verían más afectados en caso de no concretarse alguno de estos acuerdos? Entrevista: Christian Gurría, director general de Alsea Tema: Llegada al puesto y actualidad de la empresa

Scott Bauer does not expect a rate cut this week but is still listening to Fed commentary. He looks ahead to the July jobs report, saying a miss could lead to a rate reduction in September, but warns the Fed is watching plenty of other economic indicators. For example, Thursday's PCE report could “come in hot” and push the 10-year higher, hitting equities. Looking to the dollar, he thinks the rally off lows could hold, especially with trading deals being announced. He still wants to sell rallies for crude oil and buy the dip on gold.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Diego Barnuevo, analista de Ebury, analiza con lupa el acuerdo comercial, la FED y el gasto en consumo personal PCE.

O estrategista de investimentos do BB Private, Raphael Félix, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento:"Nos EUA, a visita de Trump ao Fed e a escalada nas tensões comerciais com o restante do mundo movimentaram os mercados, enquanto dados fortes de atividade impulsionaram os Treasuries. No Brasil, o foco foi a confirmação das tarifas de 50% sobre produtos nacionais, que pressionaram o Ibovespa e aumentaram a aversão ao risco. O IPCA-15 veio levemente acima do esperado, e a confiança do consumidor avançou. Para os próximos dias, os destaques são a reunião do Copom, a Pnad Contínua, o PCE nos EUA e a decisão do FOMC."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights.Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

S&P Futures are displaying positive action this morning. Earnings report remain a key focus today as markets prepare for a heavy dose of tech earnings next week. President Trump visited the Fed yesterday in an effort to sway the Fed to lower interest rates. Today the President is headed to Scottland for personal business-related activities. Late yesterday afternoon, the Trump administration gave approval for CVX to resume oil production in Venezuela. The FCC approved the PARA merger with Skydance. SRPT is falling on concerns related to its Duchenne muscular dystrophy treatment. Next week is one of the busiest weeks of the year for markets. Highlights include a Fed meeting, US / China trade talks, key economic data points including GDP, PCE & Employment data, earnings from META, MSFT & AAPL, and expectations of trade deal announcements. This morning's key economic data point will be the report on Durable Goods Orders. On the earnings front, BAH, BYD, DECK, EW and MHK are higher after their releases. INTC, and LEA are moving lower.

In this week's episode, we cover a wide range of reports that touch on inflation, consumer spending, manufacturing activity, and what might come out of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 30. We also analyze the moves in both the bond markets and equities caused by the rumors of President Trump's desire to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Lastly, we discuss the potential for antitrust activity among the most influential companies in the technology sector, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 00:57 – The Consumer Price Index – a measure of inflation – increased in both overall and core (which excludes food and energy prices) figures in June, both month over month and year over year. The next release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) – another measure of inflation – is expected on July 31.02:03 – The U.S. Census Bureau released its monthly report on advance monthly retail sales, which was positive for the economy and showed an 0.6% increase in consumer spending for June.02:46 – The Federal Reserve's latest Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report showed a 0.3% uptick in manufacturing in June, which was a very welcome sign because April and May figures were relatively flat, and March was negative.03:27 – The Fed released its Beige Book report, which comes out in advance of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, it shows cautiously positive signs across the twelve districts, with five reporting slight or modest gains, five with flat activity, and modest declines for the remaining two.04:12 – We note three themes to pay attention to over the next few weeks in addition to the upcoming FOMC meeting: President Trump's ongoing or extended pause on tariffs, the PCE inflation report, and updated figures on the labor market.05:08 – Because the CPI data was higher than expected, market expectations of the Fed issuing a July rate cut are down to under 5%, while expectations of a September rate cut are around 60%. Still, a growing contingency is betting on the next rates cuts coming as late as the fourth quarter of this year or not at all until 2026.06:27 – The bond market reacts to this week's economic news with front-end yields, which are more sensitive to Fed policy, moving lower more rapidly than longer-ended yields, which are more sensitive to the economy and inflation.07:56 – The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (“the MOVE Index”,) – which tracks volatility in the bond market – spiked on reports that Trump was thinking of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but quickly came back down and remains stable, signaling a resilient bond market.09:56 – An overall analysis of the economy and markets considering this week's rumors of Powell's potential ouster, the more likely potential of his serving out his full term, and conversations of who might come next. We look to historical precedent during Richard Nixon's presidency for what might happen in the future.13:29 – The equities market continues to see all-time highs and will likely remain high in August before anticipated cooling beginning in September. Technology sector stocks lead the market rally, with some lagging in healthcare and consumer staples.17:36 – Stocks of the Magnificent 7 are buoying the markets partly because of their high trading volume and concentration. More singularly focused companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA seem immune from government interference, but more-diversified companies like Meta and Alphabet might be more susceptible to anti-trust efforts.20:19 – The overall economic outlook is positive for now. Recession fears and tariff-related volatility are coming down, but can come back at any moment. The implications for your portfolio are to balance risk and remain diversified to offset potential future fluctuations.Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law?Key Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

Mortgage rates are dropping — so why are buyers still stuck on the sidelines? This episode breaks down the latest market update with July 2025 data, unpacking how inflation, job reports, and interest rate speculation are shaping first-time buyer behavior.In this episode, David delivers a critical market update recorded just after the July 4th weekend in 2025. Despite a notable drop in mortgage rates — the fifth consecutive week of declines — most buyers still aren't making moves. Why? The answers lie in economic signals that go beyond interest rates.You'll learn how job market strength and inflation fears are keeping the Federal Reserve from cutting rates, despite public pressure. Plus, David breaks down how tariffs and the PCE index (the Fed's favorite inflation tracker) are working against rate relief. With clarity and candor, he explains why rate drops aren't enough to reboot buyer confidence — and why timing your purchase based on Fed headlines may be a risky move.First-time homebuyers will walk away with a clearer picture of what's happening behind the scenes — and why understanding market conditions is more important than listening to outdated advice from friends or family.Quote“Mortgage rates have fallen for the fifth straight week. Buyers aren't budging though — they're still waiting.” – David SidoniHighlightsFreddie Mac reports the biggest one-week drop in rates since March 2025Fed rate cuts unlikely after strong June jobs report and inflation uncertaintyPCE inflation index still above target, with tariffs poised to raise prices furtherWhy first-time buyers should stop trying to “time the market”CME FedWatch projections: July cut odds drop to 5%, September cut down to 67%Clear explanation of how job market strength delays rate reliefReferenced Episodes279 - New Build vs Resale Houses for First Time HomebuyersConnect with me to find a trusted realtor in your area or to answer your burning questions!Subscribe to our YouTube Channel @HowToBuyaHomeInstagram @HowtoBuyAHomePodcastTik Tok @HowToBuyAHomeVisit our Resource Center to "Ask David" AND get your FREE Home Buying Starter Kit!David Sidoni, the "How to Buy a Home Guy," is a seasoned real estate professional and consumer advocate with two decades of experience helping first-time homebuyers navigate the real estate market. His podcast, "How to Buy a Home," is a trusted resource for anyone looking to buy their first home. It offers expert advice, actionable tips, and inspiring stories from real first-time homebuyers. With a focus on making the home-buying process accessible and understandable, David breaks down complex topics into easy-to-follow steps, covering everything from budgeting and financing to finding the right home and making an offer. Subscribe for regular market updates, and leave a review to help us reach more people. Ready for an honest, informed home-buying experience? Viva la Unicorn Revolution - join us!

Michael Arone says that the data isn't signaling a "hot" economy but rather some weakness that could evolve to "hard recessionary" trends. He was glad to see Fed officials talking about rate cuts in July, saying he's more concerned about growth than inflation. Michael thinks the Fed made a mistake in 2018 by thinking tariffs are inflationary and that the Fed "should get going" with rate cuts to be in line with its preferred PCE data. He says investors should expect Jerome Powell to indicate policy changes at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and believes 3 rate cuts are on the way.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this episode, our experts opine on the economy, considering three key indicators making a splash this week: unemployment claims are down, but so was the first quarter estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while inflation stayed stickier than hoped for in May. Meanwhile, bond yields moved higher, and the stock market is having a heyday, despite the dollar hitting a three-year low. We will be off next week for the July 4th holiday, and look forward to bringing you fresh insights the following week.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:16 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 21 came in at 236,000 – 10,000 lower than the prior week – which was a welcome sign given this figure's recent upward trajectory.02:43 – The final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.5% contraction, caused by an increase in imports ahead of President Trump's insistence on widespread tariffs.03:37 – Inflation – excluding food and energy – remained sticky in May, as the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) ticked up to 0.2% month-over-month, and 2.7% year-over-year.05:01 – Following a run of resiliency, key economic indicators appear to be following suit with the negative sentiment that has been pervasive in the first half of 2025.09:47 – Fed Funds futures are pricing in a modest 20% chance of a rate cut in July, but expectations of the first rate cut in September appear more solid at 90% odds.10:22 – Bond yields moved higher in reaction to the PCE inflation data, while the U.S. dollar dipped to its lowest level in three years.11:58 – Investment grade credit spreads remain unchanged for the week and continue to trade at a very tight range.13:39 – The stock market is enjoying all-time highs that will likely continue into next month, furthering the trend of July being the best-performing month of the year, based on historical data.17:56 – The 90-day pause on tariffs announced in April is set to expire on July 9, though recent news suggests this is more of a soft target than a hard deadline. Additional ResourcesWhat Happens If the TCJA Expires? Why It Matters Now for Your Taxes and Your LegacyBooks and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and ListeningKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

“Not so solid” – Barry Knapp doesn't believe the Fed's assertion that the economy is holding up, citing today's PCE data among other factors. Outside of names driven by the AI boom, he says earnings are actually projected to fall in 2Q. He talks about what positive catalysts the market could see and gives his targets for the end of the year. Overall, he thinks the Fed has got it wrong, just as he argues that they got it wrong during the pandemic.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/

It's been a big week for economic data, with key reports on GDP, PCE, retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers. Bloomberg's Kate Davidson and the Wall Street Journal's Greg Ip join “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal to discuss the data, what's happening with inflation and how much tariffs are feeding into prices. Also on the show: Disposable income dipped in May. What does this slowdown in income growth mean for the broader economy? Plus, a conversation with Tim Cadogan, CEO of GoFundMe, about the future of charitable giving. Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

It's been a big week for economic data, with key reports on GDP, PCE, retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers. Bloomberg's Kate Davidson and the Wall Street Journal's Greg Ip join “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal to discuss the data, what's happening with inflation and how much tariffs are feeding into prices. Also on the show: Disposable income dipped in May. What does this slowdown in income growth mean for the broader economy? Plus, a conversation with Tim Cadogan, CEO of GoFundMe, about the future of charitable giving. Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

PCE rising in May as expected as the S&P and NASDAQ hit fresh record highs: Sara Eisen and David Faber broke down what the data means for equities, the consumer, and the broader economy with the Head of Citi's U.S. Equity Strategy Drew Pettit. Plus: if you missed out on the rally… Is it too late to get in? Tech investor Dan Niles joined the team with the names he'd buy right now – and a warning that things could get rocky by Thanksgiving.  Also in focus: Nike shares on pace for their best day in decades as they say recent sales declines are moderating… The key takeaways from results – and what execs are saying about China; Will Crypto play a role in the future of homeownership? The Trump Admin making a move in that direction, with details this hour; And a deep-dive with Tesla Board Member and Redwood Materials CEO JB Straubel – as Redwood makes a new big push at the intersection of EV's  and AI. 

Andrew, Ben, and Pedro discuss the status of the Big Beautiful Bill, PCE inflation, and provide an update on the China trade deal. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Discord Channel: https://discord.gg/GBsBRd2wYG Here's what we'll cover this week:

S&P Futures are moving higher this morning mainly due to optimism on trade negations. U.S. trade deal which as previously announced, has been signed. The White House indicates that extensions are possible on the upcoming tariff deadlines. Commerce Secretary Lutnick indicated that 10 new trade deals are set to be announced soon. Banks are on watch today as the Fed will be releasing stress test results after the bell. On the economic calendar is the PCE data and also a report on consumer confidence. Nike shares are higher after its earnings release. PRGS to release earnings on Monday.

Morning Movers kicks off the day with Scott Bauer (@prospertradingacademy) and his thoughts on markets inching towards all-time highs, the Russell 2000 reconstitution and PCE data. All combined, he thinks it will be a "big trading day" and makes the case that it is a "perfect time" for buying upside VIX calls, with volatility still "too cheap" in his opinion. Scott discusses the ripple effects of U.S. and China confirming details of a trade deal. Later, he doesn't think May PCE data will push the Fed to do anything in July, but he does say if there's an uptick in inflation data it could give Powell and Fed members more pause.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Eddie Yoon says core PCE and consumer sentiment both raised signs of weakening wallets. That, on top of trans-Atlantic flights from Europe hitting pre-pandemic levels, worry Eddie that more softness will come. Layoffs in major firms like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) add to resistance against the job market. He also talks about the headwinds luxury brands like Lululemon (LULU) will face in a shifting macro environment.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The latest core PCE price index showed a 2.7% increase, higher than Wall Street estimates. Kevin Hincks says investors aren't reacting too harshly to the numbers as members of the Fed target a potential interest rate cut in September. He notes the trade deal framework between the U.S. and China acting as a bullish buffer to that print.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/

Consumer Spending and Incomes going down was a standout in the latest PCE data, says Mish Schneider. The slight uptick in core inflation to 2.7% was more than expected, but "not a huge surprise" to her. She posits the question: is the U.S. economy showing signs of disinflation or stagflation? Mish says there are 3 major factors where we go from here: oil prices, Fed Policy and the "Big, Beautiful Bill." In terms of positioning, she likes Silver, "Made in the USA" companies, E.V. and Solar companies. Later, she makes the case for staying in Rivian (RIVN) and Tesla (TSLA).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Andre Dos Santos y Eugenio Garibay analizaron los datos económicos más recientes de Estados Unidos, destacando la caída inesperada en el ingreso personal (-0.4%) y el gasto personal (-0.1%) durante mayo, ambos por debajo de las expectativas del mercado. Además, comentaron cómo la inflación, medida por el índice PCE, se mantuvo en 2.3% anual, mientras que la inflación subyacente (Core PCE) subió a 2.7%, cifras que muestran presiones persistentes sobre los precios y un consumidor cada vez más cauteloso.Posteriormente, abordaron el contexto económico de China, marcado por la deflación y la debilidad industrial, y profundizaron en el reciente tratado comercial entre China y Estados Unidos, analizando sus implicaciones globales. El episodio cerró con un repaso al reporte trimestral de Nike, donde discutieron los resultados financieros, las estrategias de la directiva y las perspectivas de la empresa en un entorno económico desafiante.

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that several deals will be announced in the coming week, with the Europe deal expected at the end.Punchbowl reports that Republican Senators say voting on the Reconciliation Bill will not begin until Saturday at the absolute earliest.European bourses benefit from a flurry of US-EU trade updates, US futures gain modestly into PCE.DXY extends its losing streak for a fifth session as PCE looms.USTs are under modest pressure with Bunds also hampered following French/Spanish inflation figures.Crude is firmer & XAU slips given the risk tone but base metals fail to benefit.Looking ahead, US PCE, UoM Survey Final, Fed's Williams, Hammack; ECB's Cipollone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

SUMMARY: Rates fell this week as the economy retraced more in the first quarter than orignally thought, PCE comes in slightly hotter than expected but personal income was a big miss, new home sales plummet in May, and pending home sales give some hope for a better housing market than last year...DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

In today's episode, Tyler wraps up an exciting week on Wall Street, where we saw record closes today from both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, despite this morning's less-than-ideal PCE inflation data. He breaks down the key trends to watch as this bull market rolls on. Tyler also shares sector and commodity updates and gives the VRA's View on the all-important question of whether it's too late to jump into this market.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matt Hornbach and U.S. Economist Michael Gapen assess the Fed's path forward in light of inflation and a weaker economy, and the likely market outcomes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matt Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matt Hornbach: Today we're discussing the outcome of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting and our expectations for rates, inflation, and the U.S. dollar from here. It's Thursday, June 26th at 10am in New York. Matt Hornbach: Mike, the Federal Reserve decided to hold the federal funds rate steady, remaining within its target range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent. It still anticipates two rate cuts by the end of 2025; but participants adjusted their projections further out suggesting fewer cuts in 2026 and 2027. You, on the other hand, continue to think the Fed will stay on hold for the rest of this year, with a lot of cuts to follow in 2026. What specifically is behind your view, and are there any underappreciated dynamics here? Michael Gapen: So, we've been highlighting three reasons why we think the Fed will cut late but cut more. The first is tariffs introduce differential timing effects on the economy. They tend to push inflation higher in the near term and they weaken consumer spending with a lag. If tariffs act as a tax on consumption, that tax is applied by pushing prices higher – and then only subsequently do consumers spend less because they have less real income to spend. So, we think the Fed will be seeing more inflation first before it sees the weaker labor market later. The second part of our story is immigration. Immigration controls mean it's likely to be much harder to push the unemployment rate higher. That's because when we go from about 3 million immigrants per year down to about 300,000 – that means much lower growth in the labor force. So even if the economy does slow and labor demand moderates, the unemployment rate is likely to remain low. So again, that's similar to the tariff story where the Fed's likely to see more inflation now before it sees a weaker labor market later. And third, we don't really expect a big impulse from fiscal policy. The bill that's passed the house and is sitting in the Senate, we'll see where that ultimately ends up. But the details that we have in hand today about those bills don't lead us to believe that we'll have a big impulse or a big boost to growth from fiscal policy next year. So, in total the Fed will see a lot of inflation in the near term and a weaker economy as we move into 2026. So, the Fed will be waiting to ensure that that inflation impulse is indeed transitory, but a Fed that cuts late will ultimately end up cutting more. So we don't have rate hikes this year, Matt, as you noted. But we do have 175 basis points in rate cuts next year. Matt Hornbach: So, Mike, looking through the transcript of the press conference, the word tariffs was used almost 30 times. What does the Fed's messaging say to you about its expectations around tariffs? Michael Gapen: Yeah, so it does look like in this meeting, participants did take a stand that tariffs were going to be higher, and they likely proceeded under the assumption of about a 14 percent effective tariff rate. So, I think you can see three imprints that tariffs have on their forecast.First, they're saying that inflation moves higher, and in the press conference Powell said explicitly that the Fed thinks inflation will be moving higher over the summer months. And they revised their headline and core PCE forecast higher to about 3 percent and 3.1 percent – significant upward revisions from where they had things earlier in the year in March before tariffs became clear. The second component here is the Fed thinks any inflation story will be transitory. Famous last words, of course. But the Fed forecast that inflation will fall back towards the 2 percent target in 2026 and 2027; so near-term impulse that fades over time. And third, the Fed sees tariffs as slowing economic growth. The Fed revised lower its outlook for growth in real GDP this year. So, in some [way], by incorporating tariffs and putting such a significant imprint on the forecast, the Fed's outlook has actually moved more in the direction of our own forecast. Matt Hornbach: I'd like to stay on the topic of geopolitics. In contrast to the word tariffs, the words Middle East only was mentioned three times during the press conference. With the weekend events there, investor concerns are growing about a spike in oil prices. How do you think the Fed will think about any supply-driven rise in energy, commodity prices here? Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think the Fed will view this as another element that suggests slower growth and stickier inflation. I think it will reinforce the Fed's view of what tariffs and immigration controls do to the outlook. Because historically when we look at shocks to oil prices in the U.S.; if you get about a 10 percent rise in oil prices from here, like another $10 increase in oil prices; history would suggest that will move headline inflation higher because it gets passed directly into retail gasoline prices. So maybe a 30 to 40 basis point increase in a year-on-year rate of inflation. But the evidence also suggests very limited second round effects, and almost no change in core inflation. So, you get a boost to headline inflation, but no persistence elements – very similar to what the Fed thinks tariffs will do. And of course, the higher cost of gasoline will eat into consumer purchasing power. So, on that, I think it's another force that suggests a slower growth, stickier inflation outlook is likely to prevail.Okay Matt, you've had me on the hot seat. Now it's your turn. How do you think about the market pricing of the Fed's policy path from here? It certainly seems to conflict with how I'm thinking about the most likely path. Matt Hornbach: So, when we look at market prices, we have to remember that they are representing an average path across all various paths that different investors might think are more likely than not. So, the market price today, has about 100 basis points of cuts by the end of 2026. That contrasts both with your path in terms of magnitude. You are forecasting 175 basis points of rate cuts; the market is only pricing in 100. But also, the market pricing contrasts with your policy path in that the market does have some rate cuts in the price for this year, whereas your most likely path does not. So that's how I look at the market price. You know, the question then becomes, where does it go to from here? And that's something that we ultimately are incorporating into our forecasts for the level of Treasury yields. Michael Gapen: Right. So, turning to that, so moving a little further out the curve into those longer dated Treasury yields. What do you think about those? Your forecast suggests lower yields over the next year and a half. When do you think that process starts to play out? Matt Hornbach: So, in our projections, we have Treasury yields moving lower, really beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. And that is to align with the timing of when you see the Fed beginning to lower rates, which is in the first quarter of next year. So, market prices tend to get ahead of different policy actions, and we expect that to remain the case this year as well. As we approach the end of the year, we are expecting Treasury yields to begin falling more precipitously than they have over recent months. But what are the risks around that projection? In our view, the risks are that this process starts earlier rather than later. In other words, where we have most conviction in our projections is in the direction of travel for Treasury yields as opposed to the timing of exactly when they begin to fall. So, we are recommending that investors begin gearing up for lower Treasury yields even today. But in our projections, you'll see our numbers really begin to fall in the fourth quarter of the year, such that the 10-year Treasury yield ends this year around 4 percent, and it ends 2026 closer to 3 percent. Michael Gapen: And these days it's really impossible to talk about movements in Treasury yields without thinking about the U.S. dollar. So how are you thinking about the dollar amidst the conflict in the Middle East and your outlook for Treasury yields? Matt Hornbach: So, we are projecting the U.S. dollar will depreciate another 10 percent over the next 12 to 18 months. That's coming on the back of a pretty dramatic decline in the value of the dollar in the first six months of this year, where it also declined by about 10 percent in terms of its value against other currencies. So, we are expecting a continued depreciation, and the conflict in the Middle East and what it may end up doing to the energy complex is a key risk to our view that the dollar will continue to depreciate, if we end up seeing a dramatic rise in crude oil prices. That rise would end up benefiting countries, and the currencies of those countries who are net exporters of oil; and may end up hurting the countries and the currencies of the countries that are net importers of oil. The good news is that the United States doesn't really import a lot of oil these days, but neither is it a large net exporter either.So, the U.S. in some sense turns out to be a bit of a neutral party in this particular issue. But if we see a rise in energy prices that could benefit other currencies more than it benefits the U.S. dollar. And therefore, we could see a temporary reprieve in the dollar's depreciation, which would then push our forecast perhaps a little bit further into the future. So, with that, Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk. Michael Gapen: It's great speaking with you, Matt. Matt Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Kevin Green says economic data this week could give bulls further fuel to run higher. He points out the PCE data on Friday being a potential catalyst for the S&P 500 (SPX) to make new all-time highs, but highlight that S&P 500 futures are already hitting highs. Later, he discusses the reports that President Trump is considering replacement picks for Jerome Powell. KG underlines a point he made earlier this week about Nvidia (NVDA) being a key component to pulling the broader markets to new milestones, but cautions investors to consider headwinds facing the A.I. chipmaker. For the day's trading range, he's watching 6130 to the upside and 6055 to the downside as a first zone of support.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan discuss upcoming market-moving events such as FedEx and Nike earnings, Fed Chair Powell's testimony, and critical economic indicators like the PCE inflation reading. The conversation also covers the market's response to escalations in Iran, implications for crude oil prices, and the broader economic impact. The episode outlines market dynamics, investor sentiment, and strategic insights amid evolving global scenarios. After the break, Dan Nathan hosts Stephanie Guild, CIO at Robinhood. They discuss the Fed meeting outcomes, expectations on interest rates, and economic impacts of tariffs and geopolitical tensions. They delve into market reactions, S&P earnings projections, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. Stephanie provides insights on tech disruptions, AI's influence on the economy, stock market valuations, and opportunities beyond the mega-cap tech stocks. They also explore the strategic operations within Robinhood, such as their new asset management service and how they're leveraging AI to enhance customer experience. The conversation highlights the adaptability required in today's market environment and Robinhood's approach to staying competitive. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Our Thematics and U.S. Economics analysts Michelle Weaver and Arunima Sinha discuss how American consumers are planning to spend as they consider tariffs, inflation and potential new tax policies. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity strategist.Arunima Sinha: And I'm Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics Teams.Michelle Weaver: Today – an encouraging update on the U.S. consumer.It's Tuesday, June 3rd at 10am in New York.Arunima, the last couple of months have been challenging not only for global markets, but also for everyday people and for individual households; and we heard pretty mixed information on the consumer throughout earning season. Quite a few different companies highlighted consumers being more choiceful, being more value oriented. All this to say is we're getting a little bit of a mixed message.In your opinion, how healthy is the U.S. consumer right now?Arunima Sinha: So, Michelle, I'm glad we're starting with the sort of up upbeat part of the consumer. The macro data on the consumer has been holding up pretty well so far. In the first quarter of [20]25, consumer spending has actually been running at a similar pace as the first quarter of [20]24. Nominal consumption spending grew 5.5 percent on a year-on-year basis. Goods were up almost 4 percent. Services were up more than 6 percent.So, all of that was good. What our takeaway was that we had a lot of strength in good spending, and that did probably reflect some of the pull forward on the back of tariff news. But that pace of growth suggests that there is an aggregate consumer. They have healthy balance sheets, and they're willing to spend.And then what's driving that consumption growth from our point of view. We think that labor market compensation has been running at a pretty steady pace so far. So more than 5.5 percent quarterly analyzed. PCE inflation has been running at just over 3 percent. And so even though equity markets did see some greater volatility, they didn't seem to impact the consumer at least in the first quarter of data. And so, we've had that consumer in a pretty good shape.But with all of this in the background, we know, tariffs have been in the news, and tariff fears have weighed heavily on consumer sentiment. But then tariff headlines have also become more positive lately, and consumers might be feeling more optimistic. What's your data showing?Michelle Weaver: So that really depends on what data you're looking at. We saw a pretty big rebound in consumer sentiment if you look at the Conference Board survey. But then we saw flat sentiment, when you look at the University of Michigan survey. These two surveys have some different questions in them, different subcomponents.But my favorite way to track consumer sentiment is our own proprietary consumer survey, which did show a pretty big pickup in sentiment towards the economy last month. And we saw sentiment rebound significantly for both conservatives and liberals.So, this wasn't just a matter of one political party, you know, having a change of opinion. Both sides did see an improvement in sentiment. Although consumer sentiment for conservatives improved off a much higher base. The percent of people reporting being very concerned about tariffs also fell this month. We saw that move from 43 percent to 38 percent after the reduction in tariffs on China. So, people are, you know, concerned a little bit less there. And that's been a really big thing people are watching.Arunima Sinha: Feeling better about the news is great. Are they actually planning to spend more?Michelle Weaver: So encouragingly we did also see a big rebound in consumers short term spending outlooks in the survey. 33 percent of consumers expect to spend more next month and 17 percent expect to spend less.So that gives us a net of positive 16 percent. This is in line with the five-year average level we saw there, and up really substantially from last month's reading of 5 percent. So, 5 percent to 16 percent. That's a pretty big improvement.We also saw spending plans rise across all income groups. though we did see the biggest pickup for higher income consumers and that figure moved from 12 percent to 31 percent. Additionally, we saw longer term spending plans – so what people are planning to spend over the next six months – also improve across all the categories we look at.Arunima Sinha: And were there any specific changes about how the consumers were responding to the tariff headlines?Michelle Weaver: Yeah, so people reported pulling forward some purchases, due to fear of tariff driven price increases. So, people were planning for this, similarly to what we saw with companies. They were doing a little bit of stockpiling. Consumers were doing this as well. So, our survey showed that over half of people said they accelerated some purchases over the past month to try and get ahead of potential tariff related price increases.And this did skew higher among upper income consumers. The categories that people cited at the top of the list for pull forward are non-perishable groceries, household items. So, both of those things you need in your day-to-day life. And then clothing and apparel as well, which I thought was interesting. But that's been one thing that's been in the news a lot that's heavily manufactured overseas.So, people were thinking about that. And this does align overall with our March survey data, where we asked what categories people were most concerned about seeing price increases. So, their behavior did line up with what they were concerned about in March.Arunima, your turn on tariffs now. The reason tariffs have been on consumer's minds is because of what they might mean for price levels and inflation. Throughout earning season, we heard a lot of companies talking about raising prices to offset the cost of tariffs. What has this looked like from an economist's perspective? Has this actually started to show up in the inflation data yet?Arunima Sinha: So not quite yet, and that's something that, as you might expect, we're tracking very, very closely. So, one of the things that our team did was to think about which types of goods or services were going to be impacted by inflation. And so, we think that that first order effects are going to be on goods. And we think that the effects could start to show up in the May data, but we really see that sequential pace of inflation starting to step up starting June. And then in our third quarter inflation estimate, we see that number peaking for the year. So, in the third quarter, we think that core PCE inflation number is going to be about 4.5 percent Q1-Q analyzed.Michelle Weaver: And then aside from tariffs and inflation, how are people going to be affected by a fiscal policy, specifically the tax bill that just passed the house?Arunima Sinha: So, the house version of the bill has government spending reductions that can be quite regressive for different cohorts of the consumer. So, we have, reductions around the Medicaid program, cuts to the SNAP program as well as possible elimination of the income driven loans repayment plans. So, all of these would have a pretty adverse impact on the lower income and the middle-income consumers.This could be – but will likely not be fully offset by the removal of taxes, on tips and overtime. And then on the other side, the higher income consumers could benefit from some of that increase in SALT caps. But overall, the jury is still out on how the aggregate consumer will be affected.Michelle Weaver: So, taking this all into account, the effects of fiscal policy, of tariff policy, of labor market income – what's your overall outlook on U.S. consumption for the rest of the year?Arunima Sinha: So, we recently published our mid-year outlook for U.S. economics and our forecast for consumption spending over 2025 and [20]26 does see the consumer slowing. And this is really due to three factors. The first is on the back of those greater tariffs and the uncertainty around them and the fact that we have slowing net immigration, we're going to be expecting a slowdown in the labor market. As the pace of hiring slows, you have a slower growth in labor market income. And that really is the main driver of aggregate consumption spending. And then as we talked about, we are expecting that pass through of higher tariffs into inflation, and that's going to impact real spending. And then finally the uncertainty around tariffs, the volatilities and equity markets could weigh on consumer spending; and may actually push the upper income cohorts, the big drivers of consumption spending in the economy, to have higher precautionary savings.And so, with all of that, we see our nominal consumption spending growth slowing down to about 3.9 percent by the end of this year.Michelle Weaver: Well a little unfortunate to wrap up on a more negative note, but we are seeing, you know, mixed messages – and some more positive data in the near term, at least. Arunima, thank you for taking the time to talk.Arunima Sinha: Thanks so much for having me, Michelle.Michelle Weaver: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami kick off the RiskReversal podcast with discussions on the merits of a four-day work week and housekeeping announcements including upcoming guest appearances. The episode covers a range of topics including recent market movements, the impact of geopolitical events on the market, and specific company performances like Nvidia, Salesforce, Tesla, and BYD. Economic data, including the upcoming Fed minutes, GDP, and the PCE inflation reading, is also discussed. The hosts explore the complexities of the bond market, the role of the US dollar, and the geopolitical landscape with a focus on the Ukraine conflict and China. They also touch on gold and Bitcoin's performance in the current market scenario. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media