Podcasts about PCE

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, but for investors, the bigger question is what comes next. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz break down what the Fed said, what Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled about inflation and future monetary policy, and why the Fed's updated rate projections matter for markets. With most policymakers anticipating another rate increase this year, is this the beginning of a new tightening cycle, or could the Fed be closer to "one and done"? What could higher rates mean for stocks, bonds, economic growth, and portfolio strategy as investors look toward the Fed's remaining meetings in 2026? 0:00 INTRO 1:12 - Retail Sales Better than Expected 3:20 - Market Reaction to Rate Hike, Dot Plots, & Commentary 5:14 - Room for a Rally? Odds vs History 10:40 - Mrs. Roberts' Hamburger Date 13:37 - Fed Hikes Rates: Policy Mistake? 17:02 - No Rate Cuts Next Year? 19:50 - Why Would the Fed Raise Rates? (Looking at PCE) 24:02 - It's All About the Bond Market 24:44 - Kevin Warsh' non-Forward Guidance & Dot Plots 27:16 - What Problems Will Rate Hike Cause? 30:08 - This is screwy 31:06 - The Neutral Rate is Already Restrictive 32:27 - Has the Bond Market Already Done the Fed's Job? (article) 35:44 - When the Fed Fights Inflation, it Makes Your Life Worse 37:18 - Is This a Start of a New Rate Cycle, or Continuation of Past Rates? 38:46 - This is an Oil Problem 39:26 - Fed Funds Rate History (chart) 42:17 - Give it a few days... Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch today's Before the Bell report, "What Fed Rate Hikes Mean for Stocks," https://youtu.be/x3R2_RXa6ew ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ZB0_e_Oi86w -------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: What Will The Fed Do?" https://youtube.com/live/a_oJzPPbdLQ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next in-person Retirement Income Workshop, "Saturday, September 19, 2026: https://tracking.realinvestmentadvice.com/l/1052953/2026-06-17/2kkcz --- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Has The Bond Market Already Done The Fed's Job?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/has-the-bond-market-already-done-the-feds-job/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #StockMarket #InterestRates #SP500 #Investing #FedRateHike

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:    Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Intro0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge5:37 Fed projections: 2.5% core PCE, 4.1% unemployment7:02 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals8:26 Labor market already in recessionary territory10:12 Warsh is "enamored with his narrative"10:53 The household squeeze: gas, utilities, beef to chicken11:47 Even the top of the K is losing confidence12:19 AI was 100% of GDP growth, and real AI investment has turned13:20 Payroll data quirks: the World Cup hiring surge14:06 Sponsor: Monetary Metals15:33 Trump's reaction: 10-year at 5.01%, stocks down16:05 Scott Bessent isn't finished17:04 Warsh gives Bessent the Heisman17:41 10-year at a 19-year high, and the Fed was easing last time18:14 What the Fed is getting wrong: August's one-off inflation blips20:03 Core PCE is coming down, plus BEA methodology changes20:56 Bankruptcy lawyers are making bank: record filings22:23 Do rate hikes even work? Cash-out refis and credit tightening23:29 The stock market isn't the economy: airlines and the top of the K25:16 Is Warsh chasing the wrong monkey on his back?25:47 Other worries: PE bankruptcies, rogue AI agents, socialism27:22 Bernanke's 2% target and post-COVID stimulus28:31 The risk keeping her up at night: peak AI investment29:49 Hyperscaler accounting games and the "E" in P/E31:40 What's making her optimistic33:25 Wrap-up

Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses the market reaction to the Fed raising interest rates for the first time since July 2023. She gauges questions around whether the average U.S. consumer will stomach the rate hike, or the start of a hiking cycle, as inflation pinches American wallets. Daneille adds to her analysis by discussing the growing importance of economic data like core PCE, CPI, and PPI for a Fed not as willing to divulge guidance on interest rates. She also offers a word of caution to investors in the AI trade. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach joins our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen to discuss the Fed's potential next moves and how energy prices are influencing market expectations.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today, what the Federal Reserve decided at its September meeting and what it could mean for rates through the end of the year.It's Wednesday, September 16th at 4pm in New York.So, Mike, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points at this week's meeting. What stood out to you the most in the decision? And when it comes to inflation, how do you think this 25-basis point rate hike is actually going to affect the inflation outlook?Michael Gapen: Yeah, so certainly the decision was in line with expectations. You know, obviously what we've learned in the very broad sense is that inflation isn't moving fast enough in the direction that the Fed wants. So, it's responding by tighter monetary policy. And that does set up a very interesting question which you just asked, which is: Well, is it going to work? Is this the right response to the inflation that we're seeing?So, if you do go back and reread that Jackson Hole speech, there's not a lot in there about the drivers of inflation, what's causing higher inflation. But it's clear the only response to above target inflation from the point of view of the chair was tighter monetary policy. So, the Fed is in a bit of a pickle.Most of us believe the majority of the inflation we're seeing is supply side driven from tariffs, from energy. At least in the past, let's call it supply chain disruptions, a de-globalization narrative. Some of it is demand side driven through AI. But I think we're all looking at that thinking modestly tighter rates isn't necessarily going to bring down that AI-related inflation.So, we're left to conclude that the Fed's in this uncomfortable position of saying, "Well, a lot of the inflation that we're seeing is supply side driven and from the structural AI story that we're not convinced higher rates can maybe address."So I think the answer would be, if inflation's going to come down, then higher rates will be weighing on the parts of the economy that are more interest rate sensitive and generally soft already.Matthew Hornbach: Is this a one and done? Or do you think that when the Fed actually goes ahead and hikes rates after a long pause, they are thinking about delivering more than just one rate hike?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I strongly believe the committee as a whole is thinking in terms of more than one move. Monetary policy doesn't, say, hyper-react. It reacts with a bit of a delay. So, to your point, they've been on hold for a while. When they think about changing policy, then they're thinking about a series of moves.So, I think in their mind, if they're raising rates, there's a strong probability that they will do at least one more or two more. They're never going to think that a 25-basis-point move in the funds rate will fundamentally change the macro-outlook. So, I don't think they'd ever walk into this thinking one and done.Now, it is possible we get an ex-post one and done. So, how could that come about? If it is true indeed that we're right that a lot of this inflation is supply-side driven. It is coming down. It's clear that the three- and six-month annualized rates are pointing to disinflation into year-end. We can debate whether it's fast enough or not.But if disinflation continues to happen, then the Fed will have hiked, expect to maybe do another one. But by the time we get there, inflation has improved enough, and they end up not doing it.So, they would sound like, "Oh, we're still ready. We still think we've got more work to do." But in the moment, the data just arrives in a way that they stay where they are. So you would look back and say it was a one and done, but I don't think they go into this thinking one rate hike is going to fundamentally change the story.Matthew Hornbach: Now, of course, the data that we'll get between today and the December meeting will likely have an impact on their decision-making – as well as any revisions that we end up getting.And I think one of the stories that investors have been talking about are some of the methodological changes that the Bureau of Economic Analysis is implementing into the PCE inflation data. Do you see any scope for those types of revisions to lend itself to a one and done type of a policy for this year?Michael Gapen: It is possible. There's uncertainty about what actually those revisions are going to bring. But quality adjustments to software, for example, will over time likely bring inflation lower. Some of the revisions to the other categories. So, we do think it will on average lower year-on-year rate of inflation by about 1/10 or so, maybe a little more.So, it could show up on the high side. And then you've got what looks to be a different path.So yes, I think one of the reasons to maybe go slower, think about perhaps a quarterly pace of hikes, as opposed to, "Oh, we're just going to ramp up three, four meetings in a row," is to let some of this play out. See what those revisions look like.So yes, it could contribute to a world where revisions plus softness in the incoming data mean they hike, say, in September, don't do another one after that. Or those revisions are part of the reason why they think a slower-moving cycle rather than a more aggressive one is appropriate.Matthew Hornbach: Does the labor market play any role today in monetary policy?Michael Gapen: I think it's certainly secondary, if not tertiary. I don't want to say that the committee as a whole sees the labor market just fine and we don't have any concerns there.What's super helpful from the rate hike perspective is labor income, wage income out of the labor market is still decelerating and pretty modest. It doesn't suggest that the economy's overheating and the labor market is a source of upward pressure on inflation. So, I think that's beneficial in terms of thinking of the rate hike cycle.In the other direction, I'd say we've had a number of months now of, kind of, you know, let's call it 50,000 to 70,000 jobs a month on average if you kind of smooth through some of the volatility. That's not amazing, but it's not awful either.So Matt, I'd like to turn it back to you. This is of course the economist's perspective. When we translate this into the rates market; rates market clients may have a very different view. But I would be interested to hear your thoughts on how you think the rates market is dealing with the inflation. I don't want to say impulse, but let's call it the sticky disinflation we're getting, the sources of that inflation, and how it sees monetary policy reacting.How is the rates market digesting all of this?Matthew Hornbach: So, I think actually investors are reasonably nonplussed about what's happening in the underlying rate of inflation in the country. But what has inserted itself into the conversation is the price of energy and how impulsively energy prices have risen over recent months.When we look at how market prices evolve with respect to the path for monetary policy, what we observe empirically is that if energy prices are going up in a given week or in a given month, the market reprices to a more hawkish path for Fed policy. And if energy prices come down in a given week or a given month, and we see the market pricing towards a less hawkish path for monetary policy.So, the primary driver of how the markets are pricing the future of Fed policy is, in fact, the changes in the price of energy commodities. So, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, gasoline prices. And so, this is something that we just can't get away from.There are, of course, other things that do influence the level of Treasury yields, but I would suggest that they are more secondary or tertiary themselves in terms of… Similar to the labor market. I would say they have less of an impact on the overall level of yields.So, with a market-implied hiking cycle from the Fed at about three hikes or so from here, given that the Fed just delivered one rate hike, you know, the 10-year treasury yield is around 5 percent. It was much lower earlier this year, and we were pricing in two rate cuts at that point in time.So, you get the sense that if the market's moving from pricing in two rate cuts to pricing in four rate hikes, and the 10-year yield goes from 4.25 percent to 5 percent, obviously there's a relationship there.One factor that investors are certainly interested in is – how does the debt stock play a role in the level of yields? And one of the things that I've been telling people to consider is that it's not the level of the debt, the amount of debt in the economy that matters most for the level of interest rates – as odd as that may be to hear for listeners. It's how quickly that debt stock grows.So, if the debt stock is going up at a certain pace, and that pace is within the bounds of investor expectations, then it typically doesn't have that big of an impact on the bond market. So, one of the factoids that may surprise people is: about four years ago, the news media was very interested in the fact that the amount of debt in the United States had breached $31 trillion. And, the 10-year treasury yield at that time had peaked at about 4.25 percent, somewhere around there.Well, earlier this year, before the conflict in Iran began, the 10-year treasury yield was also around 4.25 percent. But this is four years later, and over these four years, the U.S. has added $9 trillion to the debt.So, here again, this is a good example, I think, of this idea that you can have a dramatic expansion in the debt from [$]31 trillion to [$]40 trillion, and yet the 10-year treasury yield itself is broadly unchanged.And so that just, I think, should tell investors that it's not the size of the debt that matters per se. Lots of other factors can influence the level of treasury yields. And how the market thinks about the Fed is certainly among the more important of those.So, Mike, just want to say thanks again for taking the time to talk after another FOMC meeting.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Charlamos con Nicolás Sasrtorius, expolítico y abogado, que nos explica su forma de ver el mundo a sus 88 años. El auge de la extrema derecha, la amenaza de la IA o la memoria histórica son los temas que todavía hoy le preocupan al que fue diputado del PCE.

In this episode of the Financial Survival Network, host Kerry Lutz is joined by Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Capital Management to break down the latest troubling economic indicators. Opening with a personal story about soaring everyday prices, Lutz sets the stage for a discussion on stubborn inflation, highlighted by recent PCE numbers rising at 3.7% against the Fed's 2% target. With GDP slowing to 1.5%, Tuttle outlines the sticky position this creates for the Federal Reserve and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh as they head into Jackson Hole and upcoming FOMC meetings. The duo explores the political pressure on the Fed to cut rates, the treasury market interventions by the Treasury Department, and why the long-dormant "bond vigilantes" may force interest rates higher regardless of central bank policy. Turning toward actionable investment strategies, Tuttle argues that traditional 60/40 portfolios and long-duration bonds are currently uninvestable in an inflationary environment. Instead, he shares Tuttle Capital's unique approach to modern portfolio construction: balancing high-upside AI "bottleneck" stocks with "Halo" (heavy asset, low obsolescence) value companies and century-old "Lindy" stocks. He highlights tactile assets like gold and silver—noting key technical signals for silver at $70 and $75—alongside cryptocurrency and property and casualty (P&C) insurance stocks, which he utilizes as higher-upside, zero-benchmark bond substitutes. Find Matthew here: https://www.tuttlecap.com/ Find Kerry here:  https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    All Kerry's books are available here:  Amazon Bookstore    

We sat down with Chris Hodge, Chief U.S. Economist at Natixis Corporate & Investment Bank Americas, for his outlook on monetary policy in the current rate cycle. Chris joins host Mark Gatto, co-Founder and co-CEO of CION Investments, to discuss whether recent economic data prints point to a disinflationary trend, and how AI capex is bolstering what Chris calls a "three-speed economy" amid flattened consumer spending and declining wage growth.

Brian Szytel reports another broad market decline (Dow -316, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside a sharp oil rally (WTI ~+7% to $102; Brent $107), with oil up about 20% over the past week and a half amid Middle East tensions and threats to key Red Sea chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Markets are focused on CPI ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, with discussion of a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike and political pressure from upcoming midterms; he frames possible policy levels using core PCE (3.3%) and current fed funds (3.50–3.75%). He cautions against trading headlines and says rate moves are being sensationalized versus 2000. He also discusses tariffs as generally inferior to free markets, often retaliatory and effectively a consumption tax, but sometimes justified for national security or to counter unfair foreign policies. PPI and jobless claims were benign and in line. 00:00 Market Wrap and Oil Spike 01:08 CPI Preview and Fed Bets 02:40 Core PCE and Terminal Rate Math 04:52 Why Not to Trade the Noise 05:23 2000 Bubble Comparisons 06:57 Bull Markets and Fed Risk 07:28 Tariffs Explained Pros and Cons 10:03 PPI Claims and Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this episode, we discuss the most recent PCE release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. PCE came in higher than anticipated keeping the Federal Reserve on their toes. In addition, Warsh indicated in his Jackson Hole speech that the Fed needs to be more attentive to it's inflation mandate.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines why expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike shifted following Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. For business leaders navigating uncertain borrowing costs and weakness in housing and agriculture, Connor breaks down the Fed's 2 percent inflation target, elevated PCE inflation, and the difference between headline inflation and underlying price pressures. One phrase in the speech may leave the Fed more room than markets expect. Do you think the Fed will raise rates in September?

Thierry Wizman highlights that all key inflation measures—core and headline CPI and PCE—remain above the Fed's 2% target, keeping the labor market a decisive factor for policy. He points to AI-driven corporate earnings growth as a sign of economic strength, even as oil prices and geopolitical risks cloud the inflation outlook.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

What if inflation has been running lower than the number the Federal Reserve has been watching?Recent research and upcoming methodology changes suggest that certain categories within the PCE inflation measure may have been overstating inflation.And that matters because PCE is one of the key inflation measures the Federal Reserve watches when making decisions about interest rates. In this week's The Brief, Kenny Simpson breaks down:• Why the inflation number may be overstated• The difference between PCE and CPI• What categories are creating the discrepancy• How portfolio management fees are being measured• How software and other services can affect the inflation calculation• What changes are being made to the methodology• How much core PCE could potentially change• Why this matters to the Federal Reserve• What it could mean for mortgage rates and interest ratesKenny discusses research from the Cleveland Fed, San Francisco Fed, Federal Reserve Board staff and others that has examined these measurement issues. But does this mean the Fed is suddenly going to start cutting rates?Not necessarily.There are still major factors affecting the rate outlook, including geopolitical uncertainty, the labor market, consumer spending, inflation and broader economic conditions. The bigger question is this:If inflation has been overstated, have interest rates been higher than they needed to be?Watch the full episode for Kenny's breakdown.

Rate hike odds for the September 16 FOMC meeting hit 66% on CME FedWatch, up from around 30% before Jackson Hole. Warsh called the inflation numbers concerning, citing PCE at 3.7% over twelve months and 4.1% over six, both well above the 2% target, and said price control is the priority. Barclays now expects two hikes this year totaling 50 basis points.~This episode is sponsored by Uphold~Uphold Staking ➜ https://bit.ly/UpholdStakingPB00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: Uphold00:45 Odds surge01:50 S&P falling, crypto holding?03:20 Oil / gas prices04:15 Bottom line05:15 CNBC: We're not close to the end06:40 Three Hikes?08:40 CNBC: We should hike in September09:35 Did Warsh get the call?10:40 Conspiracy Theory12:30 Dems sweep midterms13:35 Stop doing memes?#Crypto #Bitcoin #federalreserve ~Fed Rate Hike Fears Climb

Crude oil is surging again... And suddenly $100 oil doesn't seem so far away. Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran has sent another shock through the energy markets. U.S. forces launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets, two oil tankers were reportedly attacked while leaving the Strait of Hormuz, and concerns are once again growing about the security of one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. The result? Brent crude jumped 4.6% to $94.65 per barrel, while WTI surged 5.2% to $90.22. So on today's TraderMerlin show, we're asking the obvious question: Are we heading back to $100 oil? We've already been there this year—and with tensions escalating again, it wouldn't take much to get there. But this story is much bigger than the price of crude. The Strait of Hormuz normally handles roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, making developments in Iran critical not just for energy traders, but for virtually every financial market. We'll discuss: The latest U.S.-Iran escalation – What happened and why the oil market reacted so aggressively The Strait of Hormuz – Why this narrow stretch of water remains one of the most important pieces of real estate in the global economy $100 crude oil – What would have to happen for WTI and Brent to break through triple digits again? Supply disruption – How much oil is actually at risk if tensions continue escalating? Gasoline & diesel – Why crude isn't the only energy market traders should be watching Inflation – How sustained higher energy prices could work their way through transportation, manufacturing and ultimately consumer prices The stock market – Which sectors potentially win—and which ones get hurt—if oil continues higher? And then we're going to connect oil to another huge issue facing the markets right now: The Federal Reserve's rate-hike dilemma. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh made it clear at Jackson Hole that inflation remains too high. The Fed's preferred PCE measure is running well above its 2% target, while the economy and labor market remain relatively resilient. Today, Fed Governor Michael Barr added another warning, saying the central bank should "act decisively to raise rates" if inflation doesn't moderate sufficiently. Now throw $90+ crude oil into the equation. That's where things get complicated. Higher oil prices can push inflation higher... But they can also hurt consumers, squeeze corporate margins and eventually slow economic growth. So the Fed potentially faces an uncomfortable choice: Raise rates to fight inflation and risk slowing the economy—or hold rates steady and risk allowing inflation to become even more entrenched? That's the dilemma. And Wall Street is already responding. Treasury yields are moving higher, stocks are under pressure, and expectations for a September rate hike have jumped significantly following Warsh's Jackson Hole speech and the renewed surge in energy prices. This is the chain every trader should understand: Iran → Oil → Inflation → Federal Reserve → Interest Rates → Bonds → Stocks That's why what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz could ultimately impact your portfolio even if you've never traded a barrel of crude oil in your life. For additional research, check out the Federal Reserve's official Jackson Hole remarks from Kevin Warsh, U.S. Energy Information Administration and CME Group Energy Markets. Listen now:

Football is back, fall is around the corner, and there's plenty happening with the economy and markets. On this episode of the Money Matters Podcast, Wes Moss and Connor Miller sort through some of the current financial stories and explore what they may mean for investors and retirees. ·       Analyze the U.S. economy, inflation, and S&P 500 earnings as summer winds down. ·       Explore The Retire Sooner Method and Wes's latest research on the characteristics associated with happier retirees. ·       Consider the challenges the sandwich generation may face while juggling kids, aging parents, and retirement goals. ·       Compare recent trends in large-cap stocks, dividend growers, small caps, and diversified portfolios. ·       Follow how oil prices, federal debt, interest rates, and housing costs may influence the economy. ·       Track CPI and PCE inflation and potential changes to how these closely watched measures are calculated. ·       Examine why fewer Americans 55+ seem to be participating in the labor force and the factors that may influence retirement decisions. ·       Consider how growing investment in artificial intelligence may influence jobs, productivity, and economic growth. ·       See how changing immigration trends may affect employment and unemployment data. ·       Review the financial and lifestyle characteristics associated with retirement happiness in Wes's research. ·       Reflect on Dolly Parton's legacy and her apparent attention to purpose and giving. From inflation and the stock market to AI and retirement planning, Wes and Connor attempt to make sense of a busy financial landscape. Listen and subscribe to the Money Matters Podcast for more educational conversations about the economy, investing, and retirement.

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack Kevin Warsh's surprisingly hawkish message at Jackson Hole and what it could mean for markets. They also turn to the latest escalation in the Middle East following U.S. attacks on Larka Island. Is the war restarting, and could renewed geopolitical risk disrupt the market setup just as investors were beginning to embrace the bull case?

This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and options positioning. They examine whether midterm election volatility is underpriced, why inflation may be more demand-driven and persistent than headline data suggests, how the Fed's credibility has shifted under Kevin Warsh, and why options markets still look remarkably complacent.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠Topics coveredWhy ending Fed forward guidance could create more uncertainty around interest rate decisionsKevin Muir's case that midterm election volatility is unusually cheapWhy seasonal volatility, low implied correlation and election risk may favor owning protectionAahan Menon on inflation breadth and why 70 to 80 percent of PCE components are above the Fed's 2 percent targetWhy demand-driven inflation may be stickier than supply-driven inflationHow oil shocks can feed into core inflation and increase pressure on the Fed to hikeBen Hunt on the sudden collapse in the Fed credibility narrative and why gold has respondedThe four risks facing the Fed and Treasury: oil, fading fiscal stimulus, insurance and private credit stress, and the long end of the Treasury curveBrent Kochuba on why implied volatility and put positioning show a market with very little fearNvidia options positioning, potential resistance near 250 to 275, and what dealer gamma says about the stockStanley Druckenmiller's AI-written Wall Street Journal op-ed and what AI-assisted writing means for investment thinkingTimestamps00:00 Midterms, inflation, Fed credibility and options complacency07:45 Kevin Muir on why midterm volatility may be underpriced11:55 Why this midterm could be more volatile than the options market expects16:36 Cheap volatility and how election risk could get repriced20:39 Inflation breadth and why the headline numbers miss the bigger problem25:43 Why cooling inflation data may hide persistent demand-driven pressure33:31 Ben Hunt on why the Fed credibility narrative suddenly reversed40:01 Four risks the Fed and Treasury cannot afford to ignore44:43 What the options market says after Jackson Hole49:10 Why Fed events can become an expensive options tax53:14 Why falling volatility could help stocks push toward new highs57:34 Druckenmiller, AI-written investment commentary and authenticity01:01:53 Why writing is part of thinking in an AI worldLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack Kevin Warsh's surprisingly hawkish message at Jackson Hole and what it could mean for markets. They also turn to the latest escalation in the Middle East following U.S. attacks on Larka Island. Is the war restarting, and could renewed geopolitical risk disrupt the market setup just as investors were beginning to embrace the bull case?

Mortgage rates today are under pressure after Brent crude broke $90 a barrel, and the Federal Reserve just put a rate HIKE back on the table. Here is what moved, what it costs, and what I am telling my clients to do about it.Updated for Monday, August 31, 2026 — Mortgage bonds opened down 15 on oil and Middle East conflict, pushing mortgage rates toward 6.85% and possibly 7%. PCE inflation sits at 3.7% against the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with 54% of the basket running over 3% versus 32% before the pandemic. Inflation has now been above target for 64 straight months. Meanwhile 23,000 jobs were lost in July and May–June revisions erased another 103,000 — and the Fed said plainly it is focused on inflation, not jobs.Here is the part almost nobody explains to homebuyers: the Federal Reserve can raise rates and your mortgage rate can still go down. The Fed sets short-term interbank lending. Mortgage rates track the 10-Year Treasury. If bond investors believe a hike will actually control inflation, long-term yields can fall even while the funds rate rises. That mechanism is walked through at 06:40.What I am telling clients: if you are under contract, lock your mortgage rate. I cannot price around another drone strike. If you are not under contract yet, watch two things — oil and inflation. Oil back under $70 and holding is when the Federal Reserve gets room to cut and mortgage rates can finally come down. Oil at $120 is a very different conversation for the housing market.CHAPTERS00:00 Oil Just Broke $90 — Here's Why That Hits Your Rate00:39 The Chart I Check Every Morning Before Quoting a Rate01:21 What the Federal Reserve Actually Watches01:46 Inflation at 3.7% When the Target Is 2%01:59 The Data This Week That Can Move Mortgage Rates02:40 103,000 Jobs Gone — And the Fed Says It Doesn't Care04:06 The Jackson Hole Speech, Translated06:20 The Odds of a Hike Just Changed06:40 Why a Fed Hike Doesn't Have to Raise Your Mortgage Rate08:31 Lock or Float: What I'm Telling Clients Right Now10:04 Rate Watch, Loan Estimate Review and DIY Mortgage11:16 What to Watch NextNEXT STEPS

John reads Warsh's Jackson Hole speech as a nothing burger for Bitcoiners: a Fed chair must talk tough on inflation because signaling anything else would send inflation expectations and yields higher, while the long-run path of financial repression stays the same Warsh reported that 54% of PCE basket components rose more than 3% over the past year, called 4.1% unemployment full employment, and framed inflation as squarely the Fed's problem to solve Markets read the speech as hawkish anyway: the two-year yield rose about 12 basis points while gold and Bitcoin each gave back roughly 3.5% On last week's expanded Treasury buybacks, John points to two signals: a 30-year yield near 5.3% is clearly bothering policymakers, and the Fed has never meaningfully reduced its holdings of 10-year-plus Treasuries even during quantitative tightening, evidence that natural buyers of long-dated government paper are scarce The hosts revisit the shallowest bear market thesis they developed together on this show: a roughly 52% drawdown against 77% to 90%-plus in prior cycles, with the June low of $58,000 sitting just below the 200-week moving average before price rocketed back through it John explains why he believes the June low will hold, while framing the 50-week moving average near $82,000 as the level the market is watching to declare a new bull market Glassnode data shows 1.05 million Bitcoin of long-term holder supply with a cost basis between $83,000 and $86,000, the first heavy resistance shelf above spot, and the hosts discuss how cost basis shapes market psychology The debasement trade is back in ETF volumes, with GLD and IBIT both in the top ten most traded funds, and the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaking its year-long downtrend after gold's 2025 outperformance Bitcoin's long correlation with software stocks broke down in June, and John argues it was always the wrong frame, a point Lyn Alden's Wall Street Journal essay makes at length: Bitcoin is a protocol of value, not another technology stock A broad Treasury ETF has returned roughly negative 18% after inflation over fifteen years while the supply of government debt keeps expanding, the picture John says is quietly ending the era of Treasuries as the world's default store of value ► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/vault?utm_campaign=vault&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app?utm_campaign=app&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour! ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/welcome?utm_campaign=welcome_to_bitcoin&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Connect with Swan Bitcoin: ✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan ✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin ✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin ✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin ✔ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SwanBitcoin/ ✔ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realswanbitcoin

The Money Wise Guys are back this week with plenty to unpack as investors digest another round of economic data and renewed questions about where interest rates may be headed. On Wall Street, the Dow gained 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.8% for the week. Year to date, the Dow is up 11.4%, the S&P 500 is up 12.7%, and the Nasdaq is up 13.6%. Much of the week's attention centered on the Jackson Hole Symposium, PCE inflation data, and the market's reaction to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's comments. While markets interpreted his remarks as hawkish and expectations for a potential September rate increase moved higher, the team questions whether another hike is actually warranted. They look at historical PCE averages, today's inflation environment, and why investors shouldn't allow every Fed comment or short-term market reaction to dictate their decisions. From there, the conversation shifts back to what the guys believe investors should be watching: fundamentals. With 97% of S&P 500 companies having reported second-quarter results by August 28, they point to positive earnings and revenue surprises as signs of underlying corporate strength and make the case for focusing on quality companies rather than short-term headlines. Their broader message is to dig deeper: know what you own, understand what you're paying, ask who is actually making the investment decisions, and don't assume a more complicated portfolio is automatically a stronger one. Fed Talk Fuels Volatility The Federal Reserve doesn't have to actually change interest rates to move the markets. Sometimes a few words are enough. When Fed officials sound more “hawkish,” meaning they appear more willing to keep rates higher or raise them to fight inflation, investors quickly adjust their expectations for where rates may be headed. That can push Treasury yields higher and put pressure on rate-sensitive areas of the market, particularly higher-valuation technology and growth stocks. That's essentially what played out following the Jackson Hole comments discussed on this week's show, as markets reacted to the possibility that rates could remain higher or even move higher from here. For long-term investors, the important part is separating that immediate reaction from what's actually happening underneath the market. Fed policy matters, but so do earnings, valuations, economic growth, and company fundamentals. A change in rate expectations can create short-term volatility without necessarily changing the long-term investment case for a fundamentally strong company. In the second hour, the Money Wise guys give listeners a peek into what Wall Street Won't Tell You. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

Stripe Chief Economist Ernie Tedeschi joins the Inside Economics team to separate the signal from the noise in a busy week for the economy and financial markets. The group discusses Kevin Warsh's recent speech and the market's reaction, unpacks the latest PCE inflation data and what it means for the Fed, and explores the remarkable surge in business formations. Are more Americans becoming entrepreneurs because of shifts in how firms are organized, or is technology making it easier than ever to launch and run a business? Ernie shares insights on the rise of solopreneurs and what it could mean for the future of work, productivity, and economic growth. Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

C dans l'air du 28 août 2026 - Canada, vie privée, Iran : haro sur Trump La rentrée de Donald Trump s'annonce mouvementée. Dès ce jeudi, Donald Trump a signé un décret visant à rebaptiser le lac Ontario « lac d'Amérique ». Une décision immédiatement contestée par le Premier ministre canadien Mark Carney, sur fond de fortes tensions commerciales entre les Etats-Unis et le Canada. Un différend de plus pour le président américain. Sur le plan économique, l'inflation reste élevée : l'indice PCE a progressé de 3,7 % sur un an en juillet, bien au-dessus de l'objectif de 2 % de la Réserve fédérale. La dette publique a dépassé pour la première fois la barre des 40 000 milliards de dollars. Un cap historique. De plus, les droits de douane et la hausse des prix de l'énergie compliquent encore sa promesse de rendre du pouvoir d'achat aux Américains. Sur le front militaire, Trump doit désormais gérer plusieurs crises simultanément. La guerre avec l'Iran pèse sur les capacités américaines, tandis que la Russie reste une menace pour l'Europe et que la guerre en Ukraine s'éternise. La visite du patron de la CIA, John Ratcliffe, où il a rencontré les services de renseignement russes, illustre la persistance des tensions avec le Kremlin. Au Moyen-Orient, la situation autour du détroit d'Ormuz ajoute une difficulté stratégique. Cette voie est essentielle pour les exportations de pétrole et de gaz du Golfe. Les monarchies de la région cherchent donc à développer des routes alternatives pour ne plus dépendre autant de ce passage, avec des conséquences potentielles sur les marchés de l'énergie. Pendant ce temps, aux Etats-Unis, une nouvelle gauche démocrate prend de l'ampleur. Dans le Michigan, le « progressiste » Abdul El-Sayed, a remporté la primaire lui permettant de représenter le Parti démocrate aux élections sénatoriales de novembre. Il incarne une génération plus jeune et plus radicale, centrée sur le logement, le pouvoir d'achat et les inégalités. Une montée en puissance qui bouscule également l'establishment démocrate traditionnel. Soutenu par Bernie Sanders et Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, il pourrait devenir le premier sénateur musulman de l'histoire américaine. Sa candidature offre aussi une cible rêvée à Trump, qui peut dénoncer une gauche « communiste », une rhétorique destinée à mobiliser son électorat avant les élections de mi-mandat. Quels sont les principaux défis qui attendent Donald Trump à la rentrée ? Où en est la situation géopolitique autour du détroit d'Ormuz ? Qui est Abdul El-Sayed, le symbole d'une gauche démocrate radicale qui monte aux Etats-Unis ?Nos experts :- Lucas MENGET - Grand reporter, spécialiste des questions internationales - Vincent HUGEUX - Journaliste indépendant, spécialiste des enjeux internationaux - Gallagher FENWICK - Journaliste, spécialiste des questions internationales et ancien correspondant à Washington et à Jérusalem - Patricia ALLÉMONIÈRE - Grand reporter, spécialiste des questions internationales - (En duplex) Philippe DESSERTINE - Économiste, professeur à l'Université IAE Paris Panthéon Sorbonne et auteur de "L'horizon des possibles" - (En duplex) Sonia DRIDI - Journaliste, spécialiste des États-Unis et Correspondante à Washington LCI et France 2

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines what cooler PCE inflation could mean for the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision. He also explores July's sharp home sales decline and why elevated Treasury yields and mortgage rates continue to squeeze rate-sensitive businesses. Which inflation measure should Fed policymakers trust when deciding whether to hold or hike rates? Share your perspective in the comments.

Meera Chandan, Greg Fuzesi and Patrick Locke discuss the recent growth and fiscal dynamics in the Euro area with implications for EUR/USD; US events (PCE, JH, upcoming payrolls) and the main back-to-school themes for FX (all roads lead to carry).   This podcast was recorded on 28 August 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS- 5416260-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5405224-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5426556-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Mortgage rates today are moving as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks live from Jackson Hole. In this episode I explain what Jackson Hole is, why Warsh's comments move mortgage rates, and what this week's inflation, jobs, and GDP data mean for homebuyers, homeowners, and realtors.In this episode:- What Jackson Hole is and why Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech can move your mortgage rate today- This week's data recap: consumer confidence, new home sales, PCE inflation, the GDP revision, and jobless claims- Why oil prices and the Iran conflict are directly tied to mortgage rate swings- What's coming next week: JOLTS job openings, ADP payrolls, jobless claims, and the government jobs report- Fed meeting odds for the next meeting in 19 days, plus the rate forecast into next year- The two things I'm telling homebuyers and realtors to watch right nowMore rate breakdowns and housing market updates on the blog: https://solvitmortgage.com/resourcesCHAPTERS0:00 What Is Jackson Hole and Why It Moves Mortgage Rates1:13 Today's Rate Chart and Market Snapshot2:44 This Week's Economic Data: Inflation, GDP, Jobless Claims4:05 Next Week's Calendar: Jobs Report, JOLTS, ADP Payrolls5:18 Fed Meeting Odds, Oil, and What Homebuyers and Realtors Should Do NowAPPLY NOW, One Application, 30+ Lenders Competehttps://solvitmortgage.my1003app.com/2753203/register?lang=enREQUEST A FREE CONSULTATIONhttps://go.oncehub.com/solvitmortgagealanJOIN RATE WATCH, FREE Rate Monitoringhttps://solvitmortgage.com/resources/todays-ratesTOP RESOURCESTRU Mortgage Command Center, Live Rate Dashboardhttps://command.therateupdate.com/Mortgage Calculators and Toolshttps://stan.store/TRU-FoundationsGuides, Calculators and Answershttps://solvitmortgage.com/resourcesAsk Dan a Questionhttps://www.therateupdate.com/contactFOLLOW THE RATE UPDATEYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrioInstagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdateTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdateIf this helped you understand what's happening with mortgage rates, subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch the next update.#MortgageRates #JacksonHole #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #RefinanceDISCLAIMERDan Frio | NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets.All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with.Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.

Original ⁠https://youtu.be/3au98qufT4E ⁠NEWS TRADER - Próximo Curso Intensivo en Vivo | Agosto 2026 - Cómo Interpretar las Noticias que Mueven al Mercado Global. Más Info Aquí!

Just when the bears thought they had an opening... The bulls came roaring back!

Welcome back to FreightWaves Today! Host Malcolm Harris and Zach Strickland kick off today's show breaking down the latest supply chain headlines, market data, and major industry developments. Morning Minute Headlines: Kenco successfully deploys six supply chain AI agents in just three months with Deep Fabric; Canadian authorities seize nearly 850 lbs of cocaine at the Bluewater Bridge; and a deep dive into the massive global container ship order book pressuring ocean rates. State of Freight Fraud: Danielle Spinelli (Director of Partnerships at Gen Logs & "The Fraud Girl") breaks down Q2 cargo theft trends, high-value target risks, and how Gen Logs' nationwide sensor network helps catch criminals and assist law enforcement. $100M Tech Acquisition: Andrew Wimer and Mitch Mitchell join the show to discuss Descartes acquiring Ty Software. Learn how combining AI-powered brokerage workflows with global visibility tools like MacroPoint aims to streamline broker operations into a single execution layer. Driver-Led Innovation: 20-year veteran professional truck driver James Boyce, founder of Bubba Lee LLC, introduces the "Trucker Tote"—a modular console designed to eliminate cab distractions, improve safety, and help fleets prevent thermonuclear verdicts. SONAR & Freightnomics Update: Lead Economist DJ Donahue and Ben Peterson (Head of Shipper Solutions) join Zach for a deep dive into tender rejections, Q2 GDP revisions, PCE inflation figures, and strategic shipper advice for the upcoming bid season. ⁠Follow the FreightWaves Today Podcast⁠ ⁠Other FreightWaves Shows⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mortgage rates are reacting this week to a surprising jobs report, sticky inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting. In this video I break down what jobless claims, PCE inflation, and rising oil prices mean for mortgage rates, home affordability, and what the Fed does next. Homebuyers, homeowners, and Realtors, this is the week's mortgage rate update. Here's what I cover: • Why a stronger than expected jobs report is actually bad news for mortgage rates • How bond prices and yields actually work, explained simply • The Fed's two big concerns right now: inflation still at 3.7% and unemployment near full employment • Jobless claims and continued claims data, and what it tells us about the labor market • Why oil sitting in the 80s is keeping inflation elevated, and what has to happen for rates to drop • How Fed rate cut expectations have completely flipped ahead of Jackson Hole • What I'm telling my own clients right now about locking in Read more mortgage rate breakdowns on my blog: https://therateupdate.com/blog CHAPTERS 0:00 Jobs Report Shakes Up Mortgage Rate Expectations 1:20 How Bond Prices and Yields Actually Work 3:45 The Fed's Two Mandates: Inflation and Jobs 6:10 Jackson Hole and This Week's Jobless Claims 8:40 Oil Prices, Earnings, and What the Fed Does Next 

A sessão foi marcada pela redução da percepção de risco geopolítico global, com sinalizações de um possível acordo de paz entre Estados Unidos e Irã. O ambientefavoreceu o enfraquecimento generalizado do dólar nos mercados mais líquidos, com o DXY recuando 0,13%, aos 98,876 pontos.No câmbio local, o dólar à vista fechou cotado a R$ 5,13, queda de 0,25%. O Ibovespa iniciou o pregão em território negativo, mas reverteu ao longo do dia e ampliou os ganhos na reta final, encerrando em alta de 1,61%, aos 174.668 pontos, após oscilar entre as mínimas de 171.179 pontos e as máximas de 174.631 pontos. Entre as bluechips, destaque para a alta de 5,22% nas ações ON do Banco do Brasil e de 2,04% nasON da Vale. As PN da Petrobras recuaram 1,80%, na contramão do movimento, emlinha com a queda dos preços do petróleo.Em Wall Street, os principais índices fecharam em leve alta, sustentados pelo alívionos preços do petróleo e pela descompressão dos juros dos Treasuries, em sessãocom poucos indicadores econômicos relevantes. O Dow Jones encerrou em alta de0,30%, aos 53.577,40 pontos; o S&P 500 subiu 0,32%, aos 7.677,26 pontos; e o Nasdaqavançou 0,66%, aos 26.151,30 pontos, com o setor de tecnologia contribuindo comvalorização de 0,98% após o ajuste de posições observado na véspera. As atençõesseguem voltadas para a divulgação do resultado trimestral da Nvidia e para o índicede preços de gastos com consumo (PCE) de julho. No Brasil, o destaque é a prévia dainflação de agosto, medida pelo IPCA-15.Análise de Ações - BrasilPrograma do iFood pode ampliar demanda por imóveis de Tenda, MRV eDirecionalO iFood lançou um programa para facilitar o acesso de entregadores ao financiamentoimobiliário e firmou parcerias com Tenda, MRV e Direcional. A iniciativa permitirá quetrabalhadores elegíveis gerem, pelo aplicativo, um histórico oficial dos rendimentosobtidos na plataforma para apresentar na análise de crédito. As construtoras, por sua vez,poderão oferecer condições específicas, como facilidades na entrada, redução do custototal, simplificação do pagamento e auxílio com móveis em determinadosempreendimentos. Inicialmente, o programa será destinado a entregadores quetrabalham pelo menos 40 horas semanais na plataforma.Vale vê espaço para dobrar produção de cobre no BrasilA Vale afirmou que vê espaço para praticamente dobrar sua capacidade de produção decobre no Brasil no médio e longo prazo. Hoje, a companhia produz cerca de 380 miltoneladas por ano e já desenvolve projetos para ampliar esse volume. O cobre ganhourelevância crescente nos resultados e chegou a responder por quase um terço dodesempenho da empresa no último mês, embora ainda represente uma parcela menor doportfólio quando comparado ao minério de ferro. A estratégia é aumentar gradualmente aparticipação do metal sem abandonar o crescimento das operações tradicionais.

Another month, another PCE report that put annual core inflation meaningfully above the Fed's 2% target. The central bank has been fighting high inflation for more than five years now. At a certain point, you might start to wonder, does the Fed even have the power to fix it? Also in this episode: Consumer confidence falls, transportation durable goods orders tick up, and Arizona's Great Recession-era bid to save the state budget offers insight into how AI might change our tax structure.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Inflation is stuck above 2%. Can the Fed really do anything about it?Consumers are pessimistic about the next six monthsHow Arizona's "Capitol-ism" points to a potential tax fix for the AI ageWhat's driving an increase in orders for transportation equipment?Running a historic motel off Route 66 is no easy pursuitThe Gila River Indian Community "walks the walk" on water conservation

Another month, another PCE report that put annual core inflation meaningfully above the Fed's 2% target. The central bank has been fighting high inflation for more than five years now. At a certain point, you might start to wonder, does the Fed even have the power to fix it? Also in this episode: Consumer confidence falls, transportation durable goods orders tick up, and Arizona's Great Recession-era bid to save the state budget offers insight into how AI might change our tax structure.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Inflation is stuck above 2%. Can the Fed really do anything about it?Consumers are pessimistic about the next six monthsHow Arizona's "Capitol-ism" points to a potential tax fix for the AI ageWhat's driving an increase in orders for transportation equipment?Running a historic motel off Route 66 is no easy pursuitThe Gila River Indian Community "walks the walk" on water conservation

We break down the massive implications of the U.S. Treasury's multi-billion dollar buyback program and how direct bond market intervention is shifting yields. The conversation also explores incoming PCE inflation data, expected Nvidia earnings, and what the financial policies discussed at Jackson Hole mean for upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions.Beyond the macro setup, we analyze Bitcoin's recent breakout to determine if the bear market is truly over amid anticipated institutional adoption. Finally, we map out the five non-negotiable rules for raising investor capital and break down the four unique types of leverage you can use to secure real estate ownership today.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDU.S. Treasury buybacks and direct bond market interventionPCE inflation data and future Federal Reserve rate pause predictionsNvidia earnings expectations and impact on the broader tech sectorJackson Hole economic symposium and the proposed Crypto Clarity ActBitcoin price breakouts and expanding institutional market adoptionThe five non-negotiable rules for successfully raising investor capitalFour distinct types of capital used to aggressively acquire real estateKEY TAKEAWAYSThe Federal Reserve is heavily leaning toward rate pauses rather than cuts, shifting the focus to direct treasury interventions to lower bond yields.Sustained Bitcoin all-time highs will likely depend on the passage of the Crypto Clarity Act and the subsequent entry of regulated U.S. government purchasing.Leading with a deal's downside risk and stress-testing potential threats is the fastest way to build credibility with sophisticated capital investors.You do not always need liquid cash to acquire real estate; sourcing the deal, operating the asset, or leveraging your personal balance sheet are equally valuable forms of capital.Never pitch an investment opportunity that you do not have ultimate operational control over, as protecting investor capital requires executive decision-making power.CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONVisit skylineocresidences.com to discover luxury homeownership and exceptional value at Skyline OC.Invest in the Imagos Income Fund for steady passive returns targeting 10%. Text INCOME to 844-447-1555.Get a free financial portfolio X-Ray to audit your current investments. Text XRAY to 844-447-1555.Partner with the team on commercial real estate equity deals. Text DEALS to 844-447-1555.

Brian Szytel reports markets were essentially flat, while bonds moved as the 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.66; oil was slightly lower amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz deal talk. Economic data was mostly positive, but headline PCE was 0.3 vs 0.2 expected (3.7% YoY) while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2 (3.3% YoY), lifting Fed futures to a 40% chance of a September hike, which he views as largely a token 25 bps timing debate into Q4. He previews Jackson Hole and Fed hawk Warsh, focusing on potential balance-sheet discussion amid Treasury plans to issue more short-term debt and buy back about $4B long-term. A listener question prompts discussion of debt absorption, real yields, overindebtedness as deflationary, and currency depreciation as a release valve, citing Japan's weakening yen alongside rising JGB yields. Other data: durable goods 1.1% vs 0.5%, personal income 0.4% vs 0.2%, spending 0.2, and Q2 GDP unchanged at 1.5% with nominal GDP in the 6s. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:25 Bonds Oil Geopolitics 00:55 PCE Inflation Update 01:38 Fed Hike Odds 02:06 Jackson Hole Treasury Moves 03:09 Balance Sheet QT Talk 04:04 Debt Issuance Explained 05:16 Japan Yen Release Valve 06:04 Other Economic Data 06:45 GDP And Closing Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber led off the show with breaking news involving a landmark social media addiction case: Meta agreed to pay $16.7 billion in a settlement with a coalition of state attorneys general led by California. The anchors also set the stage for Nvidia's earnings due out after Wednesday's close of trading — and explored what's at stake for both the AI trade and the markets overall. Ahead of Friday's keynote by Fed Chairman Warsh at the Jackson Hole Fed symposium, PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — rose more than expected in July, with Core PCE matching economists' forecasts. Also in focus: OpenAI claims its new Jalapeño chip outperforms Nvidia processors, Intuit tumbles, Bill Gates' AI warning, Mark Walter's TWG Global blasts "attacks" and denies fraud amid a federal probe. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MRKT Matrix - Wednesday, August 26th S&P 500 is little changed after PCE report shows sticky inflation; Nvidia earnings on deck (CNBC) Fed's preferred inflation gauge shows core prices rose 3.3% annually in July (CNBC) The $1.5 Trillion Question Nvidia's Earnings Can't Answer (WSJ) Meta settles social media addiction case with California, other states for $16.7 billion (CNBC) OpenAI Claims Its New Chips Can Outperform Nvidia Processors in Tests (Bloomberg) --- Subscribe to our newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://riskreversal.substack.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs

Markets are watching Nvidia earnings as AI demand and data center spending keep tech in focus. Plus, Target, Starbucks and Nike test whether experienced leaders can deliver successful turnarounds. Later, PCE inflation, interest rates and Fed policy keep investors focused on the next move for markets. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Brian Jacobsen says markets got a "sigh of relief" that PCE didn't come in higher than headline numbers showed, so long as core PCE doesn't leak into greater inflation woes.When it comes to the path ahead for interest rates, Ben Ayers doesn't think the print is enough for the Fed to raise yet. Both guests offer their takes on what July's PCE print means for the greater inflation picture.

Mortgage rates today are being shaped by the Fed's PCE inflation report, the bond market, and a major shift in how the government is handling $40 trillion in national debt. Homebuyers and realtors, here's what it means for rates this week.In this video I break down: Today's PCE inflation report, which came in at 3.3% year over year, still double the Fed's 2% target How to read the daily bond market chart that actually moves mortgage rates Durable goods orders, GDP, personal income and spending, jobs data, and home price appreciation numbers What the Fed is expected to do at its meeting in 21 days The Treasury's plan to swap long term debt for short term debt, and how it could affect future rates Why oil prices are still the biggest wildcard for where rates go from here Read more on the blog: https://therateupdate.com/blog0:00 Today's PCE Inflation Report and What It Means for Rates 2:10 Reading the Daily Bond Market Chart 4:20 PCE, GDP, Jobs, and Home Price Data Breakdown 6:45 Fed Meeting Odds and the Government's Debt Plan 9:00 What to Watch Next: Oil Prices and Your Next Move

Consumer confidence and new home sales reports are on the menu today, but attention remains on looming Nvidia earnings and PCE inflation data amid brewing trade tensions. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for their own particular situation before making any investment or trading decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. For illustrative purposes only. Individual situations will vary. Not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Investing involves risk, including, for some products, more than your initial investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed-income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.  Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0131-0826) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Overview: Tune into this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss a big week of economic news for the markets to digest including lower consumer confidence, PCE, the Fed's preferred metric of inflation, along with wholesale and retail inventory numbers. All eyes remain on the bond market and oil prices and on a planning front, back to school checklist items!  Show Notes:

Mortgage rates moved today on new jobs data, inflation numbers, and home price reports. In this episode I break down today's ADP jobs report, the latest PCE inflation reading, S&P Case Shiller home price data, and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do at its meeting in 22 days. I also explain the Treasury's plan to refinance long term debt into short term bills and what oil falling 3% today means for mortgage rates and the bond market.WHAT'S IN TODAY'S SHOW

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U6PdsL David Bahnsen opens from The Bahnsen Group's new Santa Barbara (Montecito) office, briefly recaps markets (Dow up ~0.25%, S&P down ~0.25%, Nasdaq down ~0.75% led by semiconductors; staples and financials up, tech down), and argues recent 10-year yield trading has been relatively range-bound. He focuses on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announced 30-year Treasury buybacks ($2B now, potentially $4B in September) aimed at lowering long-end rates and term premium, likening it to an “Operation Twist” style intervention. Bahnsen says the move briefly lowered the 30-year yield about 10 bps but largely failed and is unlikely to work long term, criticizing government attempts to override market price discovery. He attributes higher long yields mainly to 30-year market illiquidity and new competing long-dated issuance from AI hyperscalers. He also covers U.S.-Canada tariff threats and retaliation, upcoming data/events (PCE, durable goods, Nvidia earnings, Warsh at Jackson Hole), WTI down ~2.5% near $85, and promotes his new book, “Profit from the Prophet,” releasing tomorrow. 00:00 Welcome From Montecito 01:06 Market Snapshot Today 01:38 Is Bond Volatility Overstated 02:58 Treasury Buyback Plan Explained 05:53 Did It Work Short Term 06:59 Can It Work Long Term 07:55 Why Long Yields Rose 12:05 Concerns About Intervention 13:52 Tariffs Canada Trade Spat 15:30 Week Ahead Data And Jackson Hole 16:27 Book Launch And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Bitcoin is coming off one of its strongest weeks in years, with ETF inflows surging, yields falling, and the weaker dollar bringing the debasement trade back into focus. Attention now shifts to PCE, Nvidia earnings, and Jackson Hole, while strong moves in ETH, Zcash, and other crypto assets suggest risk appetite is broadening beyond Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, Phil talks about the latest headlines surrounding tariffs, the all-important inflation report known as PCE, and his family's homemade tomato sauce.

Podcast del programa Imagen Empresarial transmitido originalmente el 24 de agosto del 2026. Conduce Rodrigo Pacheco Los entrevistados de hoy: Entrevista: Rosa María Rubio Kantun, analista Económico de Monex Tema: ¿Qué podemos esperar de Jackson Hole y qué señales podría dar la Fed sobre sus próximas decisiones de política monetaria? ¿Qué tan relevante será el PCE de julio y cómo podría modificar las expectativas sobre la Fed? ¿Qué esperamos de la segunda estimación del PIB de EUA y podría confirmar una mayor desaceleración de la economía? Entrevista: Juan Carlos Anaya, director general de GSMA (Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas) Tema: Fresa y dumping Entrevista: Carlos Septien, nuevo director general de Grupo Trafalgar Tema: Llegada al puesto y actualidad de Grupo Trafalgar

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government sees little chance of resuming talks with President Donald Trump before the midterm elections after trade talks collapsed. Carney is designing a domestic aid package to help businesses hurt by US tariffs, which will remain in place for the duration of the conflict and throughout the rest of Trump’s term if need be. The US has said the path for talks is unclear, with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stating that they don’t have new talks planned with the Canadians and are moving forward with measures that respond to Canadian retaliation. 2) Iran’s oil shipments to Asia have all but dried up, driving the cost of those cargoes to the highest levels in years. A US blockade has left loaded Iranian vessels trapped inside the Persian Gulf and a fleet of empty ones stuck outside, resulting in a scarcity of oil in the region. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to unveil a plan for “the greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world”, targeting Chinese refiners and the banks funding them. 3) Investors are looking for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to clarify his views on how the US central bank should react to stubborn inflation when he speaks on Friday at the annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The chairman's communications strategy is off to a rocky start, and he's under pressure to give clearer guidance of how the Fed might react over the remainder of the year. Recent data have shown inflation, while still above the Fed's 2% goal, may be starting to cool, with economists estimating the PCE price index rose 3.6% in July from a year ago.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What a week! Crypto surged. Bond yields jumped. Technology stocks got hit. Economic data kept traders guessing. And now Wall Street is preparing for one of the biggest earnings reports of the quarter. In today's Trading Week Wrap Up!, we'll connect the dots between the biggest market-moving stories of the week and, more importantly, discuss what they could mean as we head into a potentially HUGE week for the markets. Let's start with crypto. Bitcoin is on pace for its best week in more than two years, surging more than 20% as improving regulatory sentiment, Washington's increasingly crypto-friendly stance, and changing liquidity expectations breathed life back into the beaten-down digital asset market. Ethereum and many altcoins joined the party as well. So... Is the crypto winter finally ending, or is this just another massive bear-market rally? We'll break it down. Then there's the bond market. Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, creating another challenge for stocks—particularly high-growth technology and AI companies whose valuations can be extremely sensitive to borrowing costs and interest rates. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 this week, while semiconductor stocks came under significant pressure. We'll discuss: Crypto's huge rebound – Is Bitcoin signaling a genuine change in trend? Interest rates & bond yields – Why the bond market continues to be one of the biggest risks facing equities. Technology volatility – Is the recent weakness an opportunity, or are investors finally questioning some of those massive AI valuations? Economic data – What this week's numbers tell us about inflation, growth and the direction of Federal Reserve policy. The broader market – Where are we seeing strength, weakness and potential trading opportunities? And then...

In Episode 349 of The Higher Standard, Chris breaks down why cooling CPI doesn't mean inflation is dead, why the Fed may be walking straight into a stagflation trap, and how a weakening jobs market, rising energy costs, Japan, the yen and a geopolitical oil shock are colliding at exactly the wrong time. From the 1970s and Volcker to CPI vs. PCE, shelter inflation, owners' equivalent rent and the “ghost” hiding inside year-over-year inflation math, this episode explains why the next inflation print may already be partially baked in—and why the Fed's September decision is becoming a choice between fighting prices it can't control and crushing a labor market that may already be cracking. Macroeconomics, but without pretending beef and chicken are the same thing.