Podcasts about PCE

US equities are trading around record highs after the Trump administration pushed its self-imposed tariff deadline to August, notes Deepak Puri, the Private Bank's Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. At the same time, Fed minutes highlighted differing views at the central bank over the course of rate policy for the rest of the year. “Overall the minutes were highlighting the tension between the upside risk to inflation", Deepak says, "But there were also some voices that were saying that there is a downside risk to labour markets, which keeps many, many more people projecting cuts."Inflation figures will be some of the most closely watched data in the week ahead. "Once these numbers are there, we can gauge what the core PCE is going to be, which gets released later in the month," Deepak says. "That's the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation."For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany's Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany's central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2025 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Mortgage rates are dropping — so why are buyers still stuck on the sidelines? This episode breaks down the latest market update with July 2025 data, unpacking how inflation, job reports, and interest rate speculation are shaping first-time buyer behavior.In this episode, David delivers a critical market update recorded just after the July 4th weekend in 2025. Despite a notable drop in mortgage rates — the fifth consecutive week of declines — most buyers still aren't making moves. Why? The answers lie in economic signals that go beyond interest rates.You'll learn how job market strength and inflation fears are keeping the Federal Reserve from cutting rates, despite public pressure. Plus, David breaks down how tariffs and the PCE index (the Fed's favorite inflation tracker) are working against rate relief. With clarity and candor, he explains why rate drops aren't enough to reboot buyer confidence — and why timing your purchase based on Fed headlines may be a risky move.First-time homebuyers will walk away with a clearer picture of what's happening behind the scenes — and why understanding market conditions is more important than listening to outdated advice from friends or family.Quote“Mortgage rates have fallen for the fifth straight week. Buyers aren't budging though — they're still waiting.” – David SidoniHighlightsFreddie Mac reports the biggest one-week drop in rates since March 2025Fed rate cuts unlikely after strong June jobs report and inflation uncertaintyPCE inflation index still above target, with tariffs poised to raise prices furtherWhy first-time buyers should stop trying to “time the market”CME FedWatch projections: July cut odds drop to 5%, September cut down to 67%Clear explanation of how job market strength delays rate reliefReferenced Episodes279 - New Build vs Resale Houses for First Time HomebuyersConnect with me to find a trusted realtor in your area or to answer your burning questions!Subscribe to our YouTube Channel @HowToBuyaHomeInstagram @HowtoBuyAHomePodcastTik Tok @HowToBuyAHomeVisit our Resource Center to "Ask David" AND get your FREE Home Buying Starter Kit!David Sidoni, the "How to Buy a Home Guy," is a seasoned real estate professional and consumer advocate with two decades of experience helping first-time homebuyers navigate the real estate market. His podcast, "How to Buy a Home," is a trusted resource for anyone looking to buy their first home. It offers expert advice, actionable tips, and inspiring stories from real first-time homebuyers. With a focus on making the home-buying process accessible and understandable, David breaks down complex topics into easy-to-follow steps, covering everything from budgeting and financing to finding the right home and making an offer. Subscribe for regular market updates, and leave a review to help us reach more people. Ready for an honest, informed home-buying experience? Viva la Unicorn Revolution - join us!

Michael Arone says that the data isn't signaling a "hot" economy but rather some weakness that could evolve to "hard recessionary" trends. He was glad to see Fed officials talking about rate cuts in July, saying he's more concerned about growth than inflation. Michael thinks the Fed made a mistake in 2018 by thinking tariffs are inflationary and that the Fed "should get going" with rate cuts to be in line with its preferred PCE data. He says investors should expect Jerome Powell to indicate policy changes at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and believes 3 rate cuts are on the way.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this episode, our experts opine on the economy, considering three key indicators making a splash this week: unemployment claims are down, but so was the first quarter estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while inflation stayed stickier than hoped for in May. Meanwhile, bond yields moved higher, and the stock market is having a heyday, despite the dollar hitting a three-year low. We will be off next week for the July 4th holiday, and look forward to bringing you fresh insights the following week.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:16 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 21 came in at 236,000 – 10,000 lower than the prior week – which was a welcome sign given this figure's recent upward trajectory.02:43 – The final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.5% contraction, caused by an increase in imports ahead of President Trump's insistence on widespread tariffs.03:37 – Inflation – excluding food and energy – remained sticky in May, as the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) ticked up to 0.2% month-over-month, and 2.7% year-over-year.05:01 – Following a run of resiliency, key economic indicators appear to be following suit with the negative sentiment that has been pervasive in the first half of 2025.09:47 – Fed Funds futures are pricing in a modest 20% chance of a rate cut in July, but expectations of the first rate cut in September appear more solid at 90% odds.10:22 – Bond yields moved higher in reaction to the PCE inflation data, while the U.S. dollar dipped to its lowest level in three years.11:58 – Investment grade credit spreads remain unchanged for the week and continue to trade at a very tight range.13:39 – The stock market is enjoying all-time highs that will likely continue into next month, furthering the trend of July being the best-performing month of the year, based on historical data.17:56 – The 90-day pause on tariffs announced in April is set to expire on July 9, though recent news suggests this is more of a soft target than a hard deadline. Additional ResourcesWhat Happens If the TCJA Expires? Why It Matters Now for Your Taxes and Your LegacyBooks and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and ListeningKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

Dans cet épisode

Análise semanal de mercado e os impactos no mundo RPPS, com destaques:No cenário externo: Powell, PCE e tensões geopolíticas ditaram o rumo dos negócios.No Brasil: ambiente global, Ata do Copom, Relatório de Política Monetária e IPCA-15 estiveram no foco dos mercados.

בפרק היומי של "מפת החום – מהדורת אחד ביום", אני עושה סדר בכל מה שקרה ב־24 השעות האחרונות בעולם הכלכלה – מהשוק המקומי ועד הגלובלי.הנושאים של היום:1. מלחמת הסחר - ה09.07 מתקרב..2. ⁠מדד הPCE שהתפרסם בשישי מה הוא אומר לנו.3. ⁠ישראל - עתיד לאן פנינו?4. ⁠נושא ההונאות ברחבי הרשתנתונים מאקרו־כלכליים, דיווחים חשובים, כותרות שזעזעו את השוק, דוחות כספיים של חברות, צעדים רגולטוריים, שינויים במדיניות ותחזיות מפתיעות – כל מה שצריך כדי להבין את התמונה המלאה.זהו פודקאסט קצר, חד ותמציתי – בלי רעש מיותר, רק תובנות פרקטיות וסקירה מקצועית של היום שהיה.הפרק מתעדכן מדי בוקר – ומעניק לכם יתרון אמיתי על שאר המשקיעים.לפתיחת חשבון מסחר במיטב:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://landing.meitav.co.il/he-IL/landing/trade/tradeleads?utm_source=%D7%92%D7%99%D7%90+%D7%A0%D7%AA%D7%9F&utm_medium=%D7%92%D7%99%D7%90+%D7%A0%D7%AA%D7%9F⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠לאינסטגרם שלי:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/guynatan9/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠לאתר שלי:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://guynatan.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

“Not so solid” – Barry Knapp doesn't believe the Fed's assertion that the economy is holding up, citing today's PCE data among other factors. Outside of names driven by the AI boom, he says earnings are actually projected to fall in 2Q. He talks about what positive catalysts the market could see and gives his targets for the end of the year. Overall, he thinks the Fed has got it wrong, just as he argues that they got it wrong during the pandemic.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/

It's been a big week for economic data, with key reports on GDP, PCE, retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers. Bloomberg's Kate Davidson and the Wall Street Journal's Greg Ip join “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal to discuss the data, what's happening with inflation and how much tariffs are feeding into prices. Also on the show: Disposable income dipped in May. What does this slowdown in income growth mean for the broader economy? Plus, a conversation with Tim Cadogan, CEO of GoFundMe, about the future of charitable giving. Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

It's been a big week for economic data, with key reports on GDP, PCE, retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers. Bloomberg's Kate Davidson and the Wall Street Journal's Greg Ip join “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal to discuss the data, what's happening with inflation and how much tariffs are feeding into prices. Also on the show: Disposable income dipped in May. What does this slowdown in income growth mean for the broader economy? Plus, a conversation with Tim Cadogan, CEO of GoFundMe, about the future of charitable giving. Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

PCE rising in May as expected as the S&P and NASDAQ hit fresh record highs: Sara Eisen and David Faber broke down what the data means for equities, the consumer, and the broader economy with the Head of Citi's U.S. Equity Strategy Drew Pettit. Plus: if you missed out on the rally… Is it too late to get in? Tech investor Dan Niles joined the team with the names he'd buy right now – and a warning that things could get rocky by Thanksgiving.  Also in focus: Nike shares on pace for their best day in decades as they say recent sales declines are moderating… The key takeaways from results – and what execs are saying about China; Will Crypto play a role in the future of homeownership? The Trump Admin making a move in that direction, with details this hour; And a deep-dive with Tesla Board Member and Redwood Materials CEO JB Straubel – as Redwood makes a new big push at the intersection of EV's  and AI. 

Andrew, Ben, and Pedro discuss the status of the Big Beautiful Bill, PCE inflation, and provide an update on the China trade deal. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Discord Channel: https://discord.gg/GBsBRd2wYG Here's what we'll cover this week:

S&P Futures are moving higher this morning mainly due to optimism on trade negations. U.S. trade deal which as previously announced, has been signed. The White House indicates that extensions are possible on the upcoming tariff deadlines. Commerce Secretary Lutnick indicated that 10 new trade deals are set to be announced soon. Banks are on watch today as the Fed will be releasing stress test results after the bell. On the economic calendar is the PCE data and also a report on consumer confidence. Nike shares are higher after its earnings release. PRGS to release earnings on Monday.

The latest core PCE price index showed a 2.7% increase, higher than Wall Street estimates. Kevin Hincks says investors aren't reacting too harshly to the numbers as members of the Fed target a potential interest rate cut in September. He notes the trade deal framework between the U.S. and China acting as a bullish buffer to that print.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/

Morning Movers kicks off the day with Scott Bauer (@prospertradingacademy) and his thoughts on markets inching towards all-time highs, the Russell 2000 reconstitution and PCE data. All combined, he thinks it will be a "big trading day" and makes the case that it is a "perfect time" for buying upside VIX calls, with volatility still "too cheap" in his opinion. Scott discusses the ripple effects of U.S. and China confirming details of a trade deal. Later, he doesn't think May PCE data will push the Fed to do anything in July, but he does say if there's an uptick in inflation data it could give Powell and Fed members more pause.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Consumer Spending and Incomes going down was a standout in the latest PCE data, says Mish Schneider. The slight uptick in core inflation to 2.7% was more than expected, but "not a huge surprise" to her. She posits the question: is the U.S. economy showing signs of disinflation or stagflation? Mish says there are 3 major factors where we go from here: oil prices, Fed Policy and the "Big, Beautiful Bill." In terms of positioning, she likes Silver, "Made in the USA" companies, E.V. and Solar companies. Later, she makes the case for staying in Rivian (RIVN) and Tesla (TSLA).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Eddie Yoon says core PCE and consumer sentiment both raised signs of weakening wallets. That, on top of trans-Atlantic flights from Europe hitting pre-pandemic levels, worry Eddie that more softness will come. Layoffs in major firms like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) add to resistance against the job market. He also talks about the headwinds luxury brands like Lululemon (LULU) will face in a shifting macro environment.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Andre Dos Santos y Eugenio Garibay analizaron los datos económicos más recientes de Estados Unidos, destacando la caída inesperada en el ingreso personal (-0.4%) y el gasto personal (-0.1%) durante mayo, ambos por debajo de las expectativas del mercado. Además, comentaron cómo la inflación, medida por el índice PCE, se mantuvo en 2.3% anual, mientras que la inflación subyacente (Core PCE) subió a 2.7%, cifras que muestran presiones persistentes sobre los precios y un consumidor cada vez más cauteloso.Posteriormente, abordaron el contexto económico de China, marcado por la deflación y la debilidad industrial, y profundizaron en el reciente tratado comercial entre China y Estados Unidos, analizando sus implicaciones globales. El episodio cerró con un repaso al reporte trimestral de Nike, donde discutieron los resultados financieros, las estrategias de la directiva y las perspectivas de la empresa en un entorno económico desafiante.

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that several deals will be announced in the coming week, with the Europe deal expected at the end.Punchbowl reports that Republican Senators say voting on the Reconciliation Bill will not begin until Saturday at the absolute earliest.European bourses benefit from a flurry of US-EU trade updates, US futures gain modestly into PCE.DXY extends its losing streak for a fifth session as PCE looms.USTs are under modest pressure with Bunds also hampered following French/Spanish inflation figures.Crude is firmer & XAU slips given the risk tone but base metals fail to benefit.Looking ahead, US PCE, UoM Survey Final, Fed's Williams, Hammack; ECB's Cipollone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

SUMMARY: Rates fell this week as the economy retraced more in the first quarter than orignally thought, PCE comes in slightly hotter than expected but personal income was a big miss, new home sales plummet in May, and pending home sales give some hope for a better housing market than last year...DISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

In today's episode, Tyler wraps up an exciting week on Wall Street, where we saw record closes today from both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, despite this morning's less-than-ideal PCE inflation data. He breaks down the key trends to watch as this bull market rolls on. Tyler also shares sector and commodity updates and gives the VRA's View on the all-important question of whether it's too late to jump into this market.

Sara Carbonell, directora general de Banco BiG, analiza el momento de los mercados y qué esperar de ellos para el segundo semestre. “Ha sido un semestre complicado, con volatilidad, aranceles y conflictos geopolíticos”, señala la invitada. Otro de los focos, para ella, es la situación de la deuda americana, la inflación y la posible recesión. Pero como nos cuenta, a pesar de esto tenemos “la renta variable americana cerca de máximos históricos y el balance no ha sido tan malo como pensábamos”. La directora general de Banco BiG, comenta los datos macroeconómicos que nos esperan hoy de Estados Unidos. De todos ellos, el más importante es el PCE deflactor. “Tenemos unos niveles de deuda muy altos en Estados Unidos”, asegura la experta. Además, señala que “aunque el mayor tenedor de deuda americana es el Gobierno, Japón también es un gran tenedor de deuda americana”. ¿Preocupan los precios por el tema arancelario? La analista opina que “todo va en bucle, el dato del PCE es muy importante y la situación de la economía americana preocupa en los mercados”. La renta variable europea está teniendo un gran rendimiento este año. Dentro de los índices, el Eurostoxx lleva una subida en el año del 7%. El Ibex 35 lleva una subida del 19%. Si lo comparamos con la Bolsa estadounidense, el Dow Jones, aunque está en zona de máximos, lleva una subida del 2%. “El año pasado ya lo hizo muy bien Europa y por eso los índices europeos tenían más potencial de recorrido”, apunta la experta. Aunque también apunta a que estamos en “una situación económica mejor y que hay sectores europeos que tienen mucho potencial como el caso de Indra en el sector defensa”. La analista piensa que “Europa, en la segunda mitad del año, puede seguir haciéndolo muy bien”.

Bolsas americanas renovam máximas com PCE. Prepare-se para a segunda metade do dia sabendo de tudo que mexeu com o mercado nas primeiras horas do pregão. Informação e análise com Roberto Motta. O Resumo da Manhã é transmitido de segunda a sexta, às 13h. Ative as notificações do programa e acompanhe ao vivo!

Enrique Díaz, director de riesgos de Ebury, valora el dato de consumo personal PCE en Estados Unidos, así como la caída del dólar y su pugna con el euro.

Bolsas ganham força com avanços comerciais e olho no PCE. Comece seu dia com todas as informações essenciais para a abertura da bolsa com o Morning Call da Genial! O time da Genial comenta sobre as bolsas asiáticas, europeias e o futuro do mercado americano, além da expectativa para os mercados de ações, câmbio e juros. O Morning Call da Genial é transmitido, de segunda a sexta, às 8h45. Ative as notificações do programa e acompanhe ao vivo!

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a semana se iniciou com o ataque americano às instalações nucleares do Irã, que reagiu com resposta moderada. Dos dados econômicos nos EUA, chamou atenção a revisão baixista de consumo do 1º trimestre; e o PCE reforçou sinais de desaceleração no 2º trimestre, assim como inflação mais controlada. No Brasil, o IPCA-15 veio benigno e abaixo do esperado, com núcleos em desaceleração. A ata do Copom teve tom um pouco mais dovish que o comunicado, reforçando o compromisso com juros altos por período prolongado, mas sem endurecer o discurso. O Relatório de Inflação trouxe revisão para cima do hiato do produto e ligeira alta na projeção condicional de inflação a partir de 2027. Os dados de mercado de trabalho seguiram demonstrando robustez; e o primário de maio foi negativo, em linha com o esperado. No âmbito político, o Congresso derrubou o decreto do IOF imposto pelo governo, elevando a tensão entre Executivo e Legislativo. Nos EUA, os juros fecharam (vértice de 2 anos -16 bps), e as bolsas tiveram bom desempenho – S&P 500 +3,44%, Nasdaq +4,20% e Russell 2000 +3%. No Brasil, os juros também fecharam (jan/27 -12 bps), o Ibovespa caiu 0,18% e o real valorizou 0,49%. O petróleo caiu ao redor de 12%. Na próxima semana, destaque para dados de emprego e atividade nos EUA, desenvolvimentos sobre o pacote fiscal americano, falas dos dirigentes de bancos centrais no Fórum de Sintra e, por aqui, atenção ao Caged. Não deixe de conferir!

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matt Hornbach and U.S. Economist Michael Gapen assess the Fed's path forward in light of inflation and a weaker economy, and the likely market outcomes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matt Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matt Hornbach: Today we're discussing the outcome of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting and our expectations for rates, inflation, and the U.S. dollar from here. It's Thursday, June 26th at 10am in New York. Matt Hornbach: Mike, the Federal Reserve decided to hold the federal funds rate steady, remaining within its target range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent. It still anticipates two rate cuts by the end of 2025; but participants adjusted their projections further out suggesting fewer cuts in 2026 and 2027. You, on the other hand, continue to think the Fed will stay on hold for the rest of this year, with a lot of cuts to follow in 2026. What specifically is behind your view, and are there any underappreciated dynamics here? Michael Gapen: So, we've been highlighting three reasons why we think the Fed will cut late but cut more. The first is tariffs introduce differential timing effects on the economy. They tend to push inflation higher in the near term and they weaken consumer spending with a lag. If tariffs act as a tax on consumption, that tax is applied by pushing prices higher – and then only subsequently do consumers spend less because they have less real income to spend. So, we think the Fed will be seeing more inflation first before it sees the weaker labor market later. The second part of our story is immigration. Immigration controls mean it's likely to be much harder to push the unemployment rate higher. That's because when we go from about 3 million immigrants per year down to about 300,000 – that means much lower growth in the labor force. So even if the economy does slow and labor demand moderates, the unemployment rate is likely to remain low. So again, that's similar to the tariff story where the Fed's likely to see more inflation now before it sees a weaker labor market later. And third, we don't really expect a big impulse from fiscal policy. The bill that's passed the house and is sitting in the Senate, we'll see where that ultimately ends up. But the details that we have in hand today about those bills don't lead us to believe that we'll have a big impulse or a big boost to growth from fiscal policy next year. So, in total the Fed will see a lot of inflation in the near term and a weaker economy as we move into 2026. So, the Fed will be waiting to ensure that that inflation impulse is indeed transitory, but a Fed that cuts late will ultimately end up cutting more. So we don't have rate hikes this year, Matt, as you noted. But we do have 175 basis points in rate cuts next year. Matt Hornbach: So, Mike, looking through the transcript of the press conference, the word tariffs was used almost 30 times. What does the Fed's messaging say to you about its expectations around tariffs? Michael Gapen: Yeah, so it does look like in this meeting, participants did take a stand that tariffs were going to be higher, and they likely proceeded under the assumption of about a 14 percent effective tariff rate. So, I think you can see three imprints that tariffs have on their forecast.First, they're saying that inflation moves higher, and in the press conference Powell said explicitly that the Fed thinks inflation will be moving higher over the summer months. And they revised their headline and core PCE forecast higher to about 3 percent and 3.1 percent – significant upward revisions from where they had things earlier in the year in March before tariffs became clear. The second component here is the Fed thinks any inflation story will be transitory. Famous last words, of course. But the Fed forecast that inflation will fall back towards the 2 percent target in 2026 and 2027; so near-term impulse that fades over time. And third, the Fed sees tariffs as slowing economic growth. The Fed revised lower its outlook for growth in real GDP this year. So, in some [way], by incorporating tariffs and putting such a significant imprint on the forecast, the Fed's outlook has actually moved more in the direction of our own forecast. Matt Hornbach: I'd like to stay on the topic of geopolitics. In contrast to the word tariffs, the words Middle East only was mentioned three times during the press conference. With the weekend events there, investor concerns are growing about a spike in oil prices. How do you think the Fed will think about any supply-driven rise in energy, commodity prices here? Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think the Fed will view this as another element that suggests slower growth and stickier inflation. I think it will reinforce the Fed's view of what tariffs and immigration controls do to the outlook. Because historically when we look at shocks to oil prices in the U.S.; if you get about a 10 percent rise in oil prices from here, like another $10 increase in oil prices; history would suggest that will move headline inflation higher because it gets passed directly into retail gasoline prices. So maybe a 30 to 40 basis point increase in a year-on-year rate of inflation. But the evidence also suggests very limited second round effects, and almost no change in core inflation. So, you get a boost to headline inflation, but no persistence elements – very similar to what the Fed thinks tariffs will do. And of course, the higher cost of gasoline will eat into consumer purchasing power. So, on that, I think it's another force that suggests a slower growth, stickier inflation outlook is likely to prevail.Okay Matt, you've had me on the hot seat. Now it's your turn. How do you think about the market pricing of the Fed's policy path from here? It certainly seems to conflict with how I'm thinking about the most likely path. Matt Hornbach: So, when we look at market prices, we have to remember that they are representing an average path across all various paths that different investors might think are more likely than not. So, the market price today, has about 100 basis points of cuts by the end of 2026. That contrasts both with your path in terms of magnitude. You are forecasting 175 basis points of rate cuts; the market is only pricing in 100. But also, the market pricing contrasts with your policy path in that the market does have some rate cuts in the price for this year, whereas your most likely path does not. So that's how I look at the market price. You know, the question then becomes, where does it go to from here? And that's something that we ultimately are incorporating into our forecasts for the level of Treasury yields. Michael Gapen: Right. So, turning to that, so moving a little further out the curve into those longer dated Treasury yields. What do you think about those? Your forecast suggests lower yields over the next year and a half. When do you think that process starts to play out? Matt Hornbach: So, in our projections, we have Treasury yields moving lower, really beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. And that is to align with the timing of when you see the Fed beginning to lower rates, which is in the first quarter of next year. So, market prices tend to get ahead of different policy actions, and we expect that to remain the case this year as well. As we approach the end of the year, we are expecting Treasury yields to begin falling more precipitously than they have over recent months. But what are the risks around that projection? In our view, the risks are that this process starts earlier rather than later. In other words, where we have most conviction in our projections is in the direction of travel for Treasury yields as opposed to the timing of exactly when they begin to fall. So, we are recommending that investors begin gearing up for lower Treasury yields even today. But in our projections, you'll see our numbers really begin to fall in the fourth quarter of the year, such that the 10-year Treasury yield ends this year around 4 percent, and it ends 2026 closer to 3 percent. Michael Gapen: And these days it's really impossible to talk about movements in Treasury yields without thinking about the U.S. dollar. So how are you thinking about the dollar amidst the conflict in the Middle East and your outlook for Treasury yields? Matt Hornbach: So, we are projecting the U.S. dollar will depreciate another 10 percent over the next 12 to 18 months. That's coming on the back of a pretty dramatic decline in the value of the dollar in the first six months of this year, where it also declined by about 10 percent in terms of its value against other currencies. So, we are expecting a continued depreciation, and the conflict in the Middle East and what it may end up doing to the energy complex is a key risk to our view that the dollar will continue to depreciate, if we end up seeing a dramatic rise in crude oil prices. That rise would end up benefiting countries, and the currencies of those countries who are net exporters of oil; and may end up hurting the countries and the currencies of the countries that are net importers of oil. The good news is that the United States doesn't really import a lot of oil these days, but neither is it a large net exporter either.So, the U.S. in some sense turns out to be a bit of a neutral party in this particular issue. But if we see a rise in energy prices that could benefit other currencies more than it benefits the U.S. dollar. And therefore, we could see a temporary reprieve in the dollar's depreciation, which would then push our forecast perhaps a little bit further into the future. So, with that, Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk. Michael Gapen: It's great speaking with you, Matt. Matt Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Kevin Green says economic data this week could give bulls further fuel to run higher. He points out the PCE data on Friday being a potential catalyst for the S&P 500 (SPX) to make new all-time highs, but highlight that S&P 500 futures are already hitting highs. Later, he discusses the reports that President Trump is considering replacement picks for Jerome Powell. KG underlines a point he made earlier this week about Nvidia (NVDA) being a key component to pulling the broader markets to new milestones, but cautions investors to consider headwinds facing the A.I. chipmaker. For the day's trading range, he's watching 6130 to the upside and 6055 to the downside as a first zone of support.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Markets stayed cautious as Powell preached patience on rate cuts and the Middle East truce held. Tech gained but the broader rally fizzled as eyes now turn to the PCE inflation data.Just a quick reminder, Capital Markets Quickie is brought to you by AMF Capital AG, Asset Management Frankfurt, your leading provider for individual investment solutions and mutual funds. Visit https://www.amf-capital.de for more information.>>> Make sure to check out my newsletter "Cela's Weekly Insights":https://endritcela.com/newsletter/>>> You can subscribe here to our YouTube Channel “MVP – Main Value Partners”:https://www.youtube.com/@MainValue>>> Visit my website for more information:http://www.endritcela.com>>> Follow me on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/endrit-cela/>>> Follow me on Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/endritcela_official/Disclaimer for "Capital Markets Quickie" Podcast:The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are based on information available at the time of recording and reflect the personal perspectives of the host. They do not represent the viewpoints of any other projects, cooperations, or affiliations the host may be involved in. "Capital Markets Quickie" does not offer financial advice. Before making any financial decisions, please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor.

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan discuss upcoming market-moving events such as FedEx and Nike earnings, Fed Chair Powell's testimony, and critical economic indicators like the PCE inflation reading. The conversation also covers the market's response to escalations in Iran, implications for crude oil prices, and the broader economic impact. The episode outlines market dynamics, investor sentiment, and strategic insights amid evolving global scenarios. After the break, Dan Nathan hosts Stephanie Guild, CIO at Robinhood. They discuss the Fed meeting outcomes, expectations on interest rates, and economic impacts of tariffs and geopolitical tensions. They delve into market reactions, S&P earnings projections, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. Stephanie provides insights on tech disruptions, AI's influence on the economy, stock market valuations, and opportunities beyond the mega-cap tech stocks. They also explore the strategic operations within Robinhood, such as their new asset management service and how they're leveraging AI to enhance customer experience. The conversation highlights the adaptability required in today's market environment and Robinhood's approach to staying competitive. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest of the year. While May inflation surprised softer in both the US and Euro area, pass-through from tariffs is still expected to push US core inflation higher with core PCE rising to 3.4% on a 4q/4q basis. At the same time, the Euro area's path to 2% core HICP looks more assured after the unwind of the April Easter effect. We still think US trade policy will be net disinflationary for Europe and see a positive gap opening up between core inflation in the US and the rest of the world.   This podcast was recorded on 12 June 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5006121-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4991721-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5000178-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4993783-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) significantly impacts adults, especially those over age 60 and those with chronic conditions.In this podcast, nurse practitioners Drs. Carrico and Stevenson discuss the underestimated burden of RSV. The podcast also explores practical strategies for increasing vaccine uptake that you can apply to your practice starting today so that you can protect your patients against RSV.Listen as they discuss:The Burden of Adult RSVRSV Vaccines for Adults: Data and RecommendationsRSV Vaccine UptakePractical Strategies to Increase RSV Vaccine Uptake Faculty:Dr. Ruth Carrico is a family nurse practitioner and senior consultant with Carrico & Ramirez, PLLC focused on infectious diseases, infection prevention and control, and vaccinology.  She is based in Louisville, Kentucky and is a Professor, adjunct faculty, with the University of Louisville School Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases. Dr. Carrico has received training specific for healthcare epidemiology at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in conjunction with the Rollins School of Public Health at Emory University in Atlanta and the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA). Dr. Carrico has worked in the field of infectious diseases and infection control for more than thirty years.  Dr. Carrico also maintains a clinical practice focused on vaccines, vaccination, and immunization processes.Dr. Audrey M. Stevenson is a family nurse practitioner with over 40 years of clinical, public health, and leadership experience. Dr. Stevenson, who holds a master of public health and master of nursing degrees, received her doctorate in public health from the University of Utah. She formerly worked in public health for over 34 years and was the former Division Director of Family Health and Clinical Services of the Salt Lake County Health Department in Salt Lake City, Utah. She currently works as a consultant and teaches graduate FNP and MPH students at two universities. Dr. Stevenson is also a member of the statewide vaccine advisory board, where she collaborates on vaccine policies and recommendations for the state. Previously, Dr. Stevenson served as Vaccination Branch Director for the COVID-19 Incident Command for Salt Lake County, where she directed the vaccination strategies for 1.2 million residents of Salt Lake County. She has been a vaccine champion for over 30 years. Learn more:Download this practical infographic to help you integrate RSV vaccination into your clinical practice.https://bit.ly/43mzacqFor more information for nurses, subscribe to the PCE podcast channel on your favorite player! 

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) significantly impacts adults, especially those over age 60 and those with chronic conditions.In this podcast, nurse practitioners Drs. Carrico and Stevenson discuss the underestimated burden of RSV. The podcast also explores practical strategies for increasing vaccine uptake that you can apply to your practice starting today so that you can protect your patients against RSV.Listen as they discuss:The Burden of Adult RSVRSV Vaccines for Adults: Data and RecommendationsRSV Vaccine UptakePractical Strategies to Increase RSV Vaccine UptakeFaculty:Dr. Ruth Carrico is a family nurse practitioner and senior consultant with Carrico & Ramirez, PLLC focused on infectious diseases, infection prevention and control, and vaccinology.  She is based in Louisville, Kentucky and is a Professor, adjunct faculty, with the University of Louisville School Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases. Dr. Carrico has received training specific for healthcare epidemiology at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in conjunction with the Rollins School of Public Health at Emory University in Atlanta and the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA). Dr. Carrico has worked in the field of infectious diseases and infection control for more than thirty years.  Dr. Carrico also maintains a clinical practice focused on vaccines, vaccination, and immunization processes.Dr. Audrey M. Stevenson is a family nurse practitioner with over 40 years of clinical, public health, and leadership experience. Dr. Stevenson, who holds a master of public health and master of nursing degrees, received her doctorate in public health from the University of Utah. She formerly worked in public health for over 34 years and was the former Division Director of Family Health and Clinical Services of the Salt Lake County Health Department in Salt Lake City, Utah. She currently works as a consultant and teaches graduate FNP and MPH students at two universities. Dr. Stevenson is also a member of the statewide vaccine advisory board, where she collaborates on vaccine policies and recommendations for the state. Previously, Dr. Stevenson served as Vaccination Branch Director for the COVID-19 Incident Command for Salt Lake County, where she directed the vaccination strategies for 1.2 million residents of Salt Lake County. She has been a vaccine champion for over 30 years. Learn more:Download this practical infographic to help you integrate RSV vaccination into your clinical practice.https://bit.ly/43mzacqFor more information for nurses, subscribe to the PCE podcast channel on your favorite player! 

 In this episode of “Henssler Money Talks, we kick things off with a market update covering the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings, and ongoing trade talks impacting global markets. Then we sit down with estate planning attorney Christopher Reeves of Reeves Law, P.C. to break down the essentials of protecting and transferring wealth. From the core documents every estate plan needs — like wills and powers of attorney — to the differences between probate and non-probate assets, Chris explains it all in plain English. We dive into when and why you might need a trust, how various life scenarios affect your estate planning strategy, and how often you should a review of your plan. Whether you're married, single, have children, or just starting to think about the future, this episode offers practical insights for securing your legacy. Join hosts Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, Director of Research, and Managing Associates K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA, and D.J. Barker, CWS®, and Kelly-Lynne Scalice, a seasoned communicator and host, on Henssler Money Talks as they explore key financial strategies to help investors navigate market uncertainty. Henssler Money Talks — June 7, 2025  |  Season 39, Episode 23  Timestamps and Chapters 1:58: Trade Talks with China, PCE Deflator, and Consumer Sentiment 22:43: Interview with Christopher Reeves, Esq. Follow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Henssler Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the recent market rally and the surprisingly solid economic data that continues to confound many bearish predictions. From stock performance and inflation trends to the latest tariff drama, Ryan and Sonu break down what they believe is actually happening beneath the market's surface.Key TakeawaysMarkets Continue to Surprise on the Upside After a brief dip in April, stocks bounced back strong in May, and with only one down week out of the last six, the S&P 500 is up 1.1% YTD.Tariff Drama ContinuesA court ruling struck down President Trump's sweeping tariffs, though they remain in place for now. Ryan and Sonu dive into the latest drama surrounding tariffs, as well as the TACO trends that's bolstered many investors.Inflation Is Cooling in Key Areas Goods prices are down, shelter inflation is slowing, and real-time data suggests CPI and PCE will continue to moderate—supporting the idea that the inflation spike is behind us.No Sign of a Recession With inflation cooling and the labor market holding strong, odds of recession have retreated from what we saw earlier in the year.Financial Media Still Loves the Bear Case Ryan and Sonu note how recession headlines haven't caught up with the data. Fear sells, but facts are more bullish than many want to admit. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #EconomicUpdate #JobsReport #FedPolicy #InflationTrends #RecessionDebate #BullMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #MarketRally #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentInsights #S&P500 #HousingMarket #LaborMarket

Our Thematics and U.S. Economics analysts Michelle Weaver and Arunima Sinha discuss how American consumers are planning to spend as they consider tariffs, inflation and potential new tax policies. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity strategist.Arunima Sinha: And I'm Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics Teams.Michelle Weaver: Today – an encouraging update on the U.S. consumer.It's Tuesday, June 3rd at 10am in New York.Arunima, the last couple of months have been challenging not only for global markets, but also for everyday people and for individual households; and we heard pretty mixed information on the consumer throughout earning season. Quite a few different companies highlighted consumers being more choiceful, being more value oriented. All this to say is we're getting a little bit of a mixed message.In your opinion, how healthy is the U.S. consumer right now?Arunima Sinha: So, Michelle, I'm glad we're starting with the sort of up upbeat part of the consumer. The macro data on the consumer has been holding up pretty well so far. In the first quarter of [20]25, consumer spending has actually been running at a similar pace as the first quarter of [20]24. Nominal consumption spending grew 5.5 percent on a year-on-year basis. Goods were up almost 4 percent. Services were up more than 6 percent.So, all of that was good. What our takeaway was that we had a lot of strength in good spending, and that did probably reflect some of the pull forward on the back of tariff news. But that pace of growth suggests that there is an aggregate consumer. They have healthy balance sheets, and they're willing to spend.And then what's driving that consumption growth from our point of view. We think that labor market compensation has been running at a pretty steady pace so far. So more than 5.5 percent quarterly analyzed. PCE inflation has been running at just over 3 percent. And so even though equity markets did see some greater volatility, they didn't seem to impact the consumer at least in the first quarter of data. And so, we've had that consumer in a pretty good shape.But with all of this in the background, we know, tariffs have been in the news, and tariff fears have weighed heavily on consumer sentiment. But then tariff headlines have also become more positive lately, and consumers might be feeling more optimistic. What's your data showing?Michelle Weaver: So that really depends on what data you're looking at. We saw a pretty big rebound in consumer sentiment if you look at the Conference Board survey. But then we saw flat sentiment, when you look at the University of Michigan survey. These two surveys have some different questions in them, different subcomponents.But my favorite way to track consumer sentiment is our own proprietary consumer survey, which did show a pretty big pickup in sentiment towards the economy last month. And we saw sentiment rebound significantly for both conservatives and liberals.So, this wasn't just a matter of one political party, you know, having a change of opinion. Both sides did see an improvement in sentiment. Although consumer sentiment for conservatives improved off a much higher base. The percent of people reporting being very concerned about tariffs also fell this month. We saw that move from 43 percent to 38 percent after the reduction in tariffs on China. So, people are, you know, concerned a little bit less there. And that's been a really big thing people are watching.Arunima Sinha: Feeling better about the news is great. Are they actually planning to spend more?Michelle Weaver: So encouragingly we did also see a big rebound in consumers short term spending outlooks in the survey. 33 percent of consumers expect to spend more next month and 17 percent expect to spend less.So that gives us a net of positive 16 percent. This is in line with the five-year average level we saw there, and up really substantially from last month's reading of 5 percent. So, 5 percent to 16 percent. That's a pretty big improvement.We also saw spending plans rise across all income groups. though we did see the biggest pickup for higher income consumers and that figure moved from 12 percent to 31 percent. Additionally, we saw longer term spending plans – so what people are planning to spend over the next six months – also improve across all the categories we look at.Arunima Sinha: And were there any specific changes about how the consumers were responding to the tariff headlines?Michelle Weaver: Yeah, so people reported pulling forward some purchases, due to fear of tariff driven price increases. So, people were planning for this, similarly to what we saw with companies. They were doing a little bit of stockpiling. Consumers were doing this as well. So, our survey showed that over half of people said they accelerated some purchases over the past month to try and get ahead of potential tariff related price increases.And this did skew higher among upper income consumers. The categories that people cited at the top of the list for pull forward are non-perishable groceries, household items. So, both of those things you need in your day-to-day life. And then clothing and apparel as well, which I thought was interesting. But that's been one thing that's been in the news a lot that's heavily manufactured overseas.So, people were thinking about that. And this does align overall with our March survey data, where we asked what categories people were most concerned about seeing price increases. So, their behavior did line up with what they were concerned about in March.Arunima, your turn on tariffs now. The reason tariffs have been on consumer's minds is because of what they might mean for price levels and inflation. Throughout earning season, we heard a lot of companies talking about raising prices to offset the cost of tariffs. What has this looked like from an economist's perspective? Has this actually started to show up in the inflation data yet?Arunima Sinha: So not quite yet, and that's something that, as you might expect, we're tracking very, very closely. So, one of the things that our team did was to think about which types of goods or services were going to be impacted by inflation. And so, we think that that first order effects are going to be on goods. And we think that the effects could start to show up in the May data, but we really see that sequential pace of inflation starting to step up starting June. And then in our third quarter inflation estimate, we see that number peaking for the year. So, in the third quarter, we think that core PCE inflation number is going to be about 4.5 percent Q1-Q analyzed.Michelle Weaver: And then aside from tariffs and inflation, how are people going to be affected by a fiscal policy, specifically the tax bill that just passed the house?Arunima Sinha: So, the house version of the bill has government spending reductions that can be quite regressive for different cohorts of the consumer. So, we have, reductions around the Medicaid program, cuts to the SNAP program as well as possible elimination of the income driven loans repayment plans. So, all of these would have a pretty adverse impact on the lower income and the middle-income consumers.This could be – but will likely not be fully offset by the removal of taxes, on tips and overtime. And then on the other side, the higher income consumers could benefit from some of that increase in SALT caps. But overall, the jury is still out on how the aggregate consumer will be affected.Michelle Weaver: So, taking this all into account, the effects of fiscal policy, of tariff policy, of labor market income – what's your overall outlook on U.S. consumption for the rest of the year?Arunima Sinha: So, we recently published our mid-year outlook for U.S. economics and our forecast for consumption spending over 2025 and [20]26 does see the consumer slowing. And this is really due to three factors. The first is on the back of those greater tariffs and the uncertainty around them and the fact that we have slowing net immigration, we're going to be expecting a slowdown in the labor market. As the pace of hiring slows, you have a slower growth in labor market income. And that really is the main driver of aggregate consumption spending. And then as we talked about, we are expecting that pass through of higher tariffs into inflation, and that's going to impact real spending. And then finally the uncertainty around tariffs, the volatilities and equity markets could weigh on consumer spending; and may actually push the upper income cohorts, the big drivers of consumption spending in the economy, to have higher precautionary savings.And so, with all of that, we see our nominal consumption spending growth slowing down to about 3.9 percent by the end of this year.Michelle Weaver: Well a little unfortunate to wrap up on a more negative note, but we are seeing, you know, mixed messages – and some more positive data in the near term, at least. Arunima, thank you for taking the time to talk.Arunima Sinha: Thanks so much for having me, Michelle.Michelle Weaver: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Overview: Tune into this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss a strong comeback in the month of May for the stock market, following a very volatile April. Last week the market digested PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and all eyes remain on the future of interest rate policy and global trade deals.  Show Notes:  

The Fed's preferred inflation measure – PCE – coming in as expected this morning as tariff whiplash continues: Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber broke down the numbers, along with the latest on the trade front (including a live reaction from Beijing to the President's new claims China's “totally violated” their agreement with the US). Charles Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist arguing: don't watch trade, but the jobs report next week… Hear why. Plus: a look at the Fed's next steps from here according to Former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder.  Also in focus: retail wreckage, as Gap becomes the latest name to slump on big tariff impacts… Top retail analyst Matthew Boss broke down the stocks he'd buy – and avoid – here; Regeneron shares on pace for their worst day since 2011 on new drug trial results; a look at one key part of the VC economy that's coming under pressure due to policy; and more on what's driving Hamptons rental demand to low tides.  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Capping a strong month of May for stocks, Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber led off the show with market reaction to President Trump's social media post in which he accuses China of "totally" violating its agreement with the U.S. on tariffs. The president's post comes one day after a federal appeals court's temporary reinstatement of his sweeping tariffs that had been blocked by a lower court. The anchors discussed what the CEOs of Costco and Gap said about prices and tariff mitigation in connection with earnings. Also in focus: Milder-than-expected PCE inflation data, Dell earnings, Netflix's record run, How Uber shares have fared since David's interview with Elon Musk. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer 

Yesterday's head-snapping court rulings on tariffs caused confusion, which could mean cautious markets. Meanwhile, investors await today's PCE prices and consumer sentiment data.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see ​schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.(0131-0525)

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss economists cautiously cheering the court ruling striking down tariffs but then an appeals court says not so fast. Trade talks between the US and China stall again. US core PCE inflation softens to 2.5% in April as forecast. Are wealthy Americans in for a shock in the GOP tax bill? 

S&P Futures are moving slightly lower this morning as the markets await a key inflation report. Trade talks are said to be continuing, with possible announcements in June. Trump tariffs while temporarily reinstated during the appeals process, are unlikely to receive a favorable ruling. The admin has already started to pivot to different provisions of the Trade Act in an effort to retain its tariff restrictions.  President Trump will be holding a press conference today at 1:30 pm as Elon Musk steps down from his role. On the economic front today are reports on PCE & Consumer Sentiment are due out. Earnings will be a key focus today. DELL, ULTA, DELL and SCHL are higher after their reports. Next week's earnings announcements include, SAIC, SIG, DG, HPE, CRWD, DLTR, PVH, FIVE, CIEN, DOCU, LULU & AVGO

Joe Brusuelas reacts to developing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. President Trump made a Truth Social post accusing China of violating its agreement on tariffs. Joe talks about how tariff volatility will continue to weaken investor sentiment. In the bond market, he's watching the 30-year Treasury, arguing that equities will take a big hit if it reaches 5%. Joe also reacts to PCE and personal income and outlays immediately following their release.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Hoy analizamos las noticias más relevantes que marcan el cierre de mes en los mercados:

Market Insights and Sovereign Debt Discussion - Dividend Cafe In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the recent market movements following a significant rise due to a delay in tariffs on the EU. He covers the Richmond Fed survey results, FOMC meeting minutes, and the implications of long-term sovereign debt yields, particularly from Japan. Brian also breaks down the ownership of US Treasury debt and the impact of foreign investments. Looking ahead, he previews upcoming economic data releases, including Q1 GDP, jobless claims, pending home sales, and PCE data. Listeners are briefed on the market's current status and forthcoming economic indicators. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:35 Economic Calendar and Market Sentiment 00:51 Impact of Trade Announcements 01:55 Sovereign Debt and Treasury Holdings 03:46 Japan's Debt and Yield Curve Control 05:43 Upcoming Economic Data and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami kick off the RiskReversal podcast with discussions on the merits of a four-day work week and housekeeping announcements including upcoming guest appearances. The episode covers a range of topics including recent market movements, the impact of geopolitical events on the market, and specific company performances like Nvidia, Salesforce, Tesla, and BYD. Economic data, including the upcoming Fed minutes, GDP, and the PCE inflation reading, is also discussed. The hosts explore the complexities of the bond market, the role of the US dollar, and the geopolitical landscape with a focus on the Ukraine conflict and China. They also touch on gold and Bitcoin's performance in the current market scenario. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Kevin Green kicks off the holiday shortened week with a full dive into the top storylines of the week. He looks at the weekend developments out of the White House, as a 50% tariff hike on the E.U. has been delayed to July 9. Meanwhile, investors are eagerly awaiting Nvidia (NVDA) out on Wednesday. But, KG also highlights this week's PCE data report as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. For the S&P 500 (SPX), KG is looking at 5940 to the upside, 5875 to the downside but cautions that the opening move will be key after a long weekend.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The latest GDP calculations and PCE index tell us the U.S. economy is doing … OK. Importantly, the data doesn't point to stagflation. But the data was collected from January through March 2025, and at this point, March is old news. Also in this episode: American companies ramp up their spending on computers, Nike's struggle to move sneaker manufacturing out of Asia is a cautionary tale and Texas becomes the biggest state to send public dollars to private schools through school choice vouchers.