Stocks-in-Depth

Mitel has was long relegated to obscurity within the institutional investment community.  However, the discussion in this series of episodes will broadly portray what we find are Mitel’s underappreciated competitive strengths.  In episode 39, we first lay out how Mitel came to be a major, if little known, player in providing cloud telephony services to businesses.

Realty Income has a diversified portfolio by sectors within the single parcel commercial property market.  What are the risks of each sector, and how does management approach each?  

Realty Income operates in a commoditized industry, the ownership of standalone real estate parcels used by certain commercial retail enterprises.  In this podcast, we discuss how Realty Income structures its business to provide diversification and attempts to differentiate its offering.

Demand for MEMS microphones increased greatly when Apple put four microphones into the iPhone7.  What might further stimulate the worl's appetite for MEMS microphones?  In this podcast, Stocks in Depth discusses potential for new technologies like the internet of things (think Alexa) and 5G networks (think machine-to-machine communications) that might continue to cause MEMS microphones to proliferate.

Knowles two most important businesses, MEMS microphones and hearing aid components, share a common theme of eroding market dominance.  But, management has devoted a large percentage of revenue into R&D that might address new developments.  In Part 2 of this podcast on Knowles, we discuss how Knowles has positioned itself to capture new sources of demand from the internet of things (IoT), and how it has addressed greenfield needs in hearables, e.g. small earbuds, which require distributed processing power.  We also discuss how packagers enjoyed a huge upswing in recent years, but have begun to back off, in our opinion shifting the balance of power back towards the two clear leaders in the upstream production of bare microphone dies, Knowles and Infineon.

Knowles Corp. has suffered mightily since its spinoff from Dover Corp. in early 2014, mostly from the disastrous acquisition of Sound Solutions.  MEMS penetration of smartphones, currently around 1.7 globally compared to 4 per iPhone, can continue to rise, since this statistic is nearer to one mike per phone outside of Apple.  GARP Research has published a major report on artificial intelligence earlier in 2017, part of which discusses advancements in speech recognition.  Amazon's Echo / Dot makes use of AI, as do new clones of Alexa developed by Chinese companies like iFlytek.  This multi-part podcast discusses many of these fascinating developments, including how the emergence of the internet of things could also positively impact MEMS microphones sales. 

Donald Trump is about to be inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States.  As far as we can tell, every other country in the world advances a self-serving industrial policy, to the detriment of the United States, which embraces free trade.  In this final episode of Stocks-in-Depth’s review of Ian Fletcher’s 2010-2011 book, Free Trade Doesn’t Work, we start by presenting the author’s case that China, Japan, and Europe have emphasized industrial policy over free trade for years.  Fletcher’s solution for the U.S. is a flat tariff, which would eliminate the influence of lobbyists and the inefficiencies of propping up dying industries.  We suspect that Trump's appointment of Peter Navarro to run the National Trade Council might signal that this proposal is on the table.  If the Trump administration considers imposing a flat tariff to balance the trade deficit and stimulate job creation, what would the economic outcome be?  What are the investment implications?  Are there second and third order effects that might be considered?  Might inflation result?  In this conclusion to its 4-part series on free trade and the flat tariff solution, Stocks-in-Depth moderator Bill Baker, CFA examines each of these questions and more in this exciting extension of thought to what Ian Fletcher wrote prophetically in 2010-2011.

Institutional investment strategists follow economic and market data closely, and tend to weave together a narrative that explains the current trend.  Presently the US dollar is rising, like it has two times before in the last few decades.  In this podcast, we sample the perspective of Brown Brothers Harriman currency strategist Marc Chandler, whom we believe mistakenly thinks the rising dollar is proof that the U.S. trade deficit is benign.  In Part 3 of our series, Free Trade Doesn’t Work,” Stocks-in-Depth pulls apart the numerous assumptions behind Chandler’s thesis, except one: the powerful effect of interest rate differentials on the current momentum of the dollar.  Chandler will most likely be right in the short term, and he’s likely to try to make the opposite call when intervention stops the dollar’s path, as was the case in previous bull markets.  But he is wary of the rise of what he dubs “populism-nationalism,” in Europe and America, for it might put the stake into the heart of free trade.  For Chandler, it is a myth that the gigantic trade deficit, which has opened up since the early 1970s when the dollar was severed from its gold backing, means that the dollar is overvalued or that free trade is a failed policy.  To us, that’s a straw man, for currency pairs will always ebb and flow to the rhythms of the global credit cycle and capital’s desire to cross borders for investment purposes.  If the theoretical case for free trade has been falling apart since nearly the beginning of the millennium as economist Ian Fletcher contends, then further dollar strength would only ratchet up the pressure that is boiling under the surface in the form of populist-nationalist movements.

The historical record shows that countries that rise to economic greatness did so through a strong industrial policy, which incorporates tariffs and non-trade barriers.  Moreover, at their apex these powers tended to adopt free trade, some vainly thinking that in doing so they might change the world for the better, but nevertheless be able to kick away the ladder upon which others might follow to industrial might.  In Part 2 of this special edition of Stocks-in-Depth, we review what economist Ian Fletcher calls the “forgotten history” of trade, and show how it contradicts the premises of classical economist David Ricardo’s theories of comparative advantage.  We also devote much of this podcast to presenting the many flawed assumptions behind Ricardian economic theory, as illustrated by the realities of the emergence on the world scene of great economic powers: England, the United States, Japan, and China.

History is replete with unanticipated events: Pearl Harbor, the dismantling of the Berlin Wall, the 2008 credit meltdown, and now the improbable ascendance of Donald Trump to America’s highest office.  Yet there are many who previse change, but whose ideas are so unorthodox that they are never see the light of day until after the fact.  With this in mind, Stocks-in-Depth introduces a little known economist, Ian Fletcher, and his 2010/2011 book, Free Trade Doesn’t Work: What Should Replace It and Why, in this four-part podcast.  In Part 1, we present the last chapter of his tome, The End of the Free Trade Coalition, an analysis of political cycles going back to 2004 which in fact strongly presaged that Mr. Trump might sweep the electoral college in 2016 on the basis of appealing to workers displaced by nearly two decades of free trade agreements and their consequences.

When we first examined the home standby generator market, we were struck by what seems to be a unanimity of opinion that tremendous secular growth would be driven by homeowners increasingly discovering the benefits of having an automated system to supply electric power in times of outages.  It’s argued that penetration is low, and that loss of power is not only inconvenient, but uneconomic, for food spoils and families must seek alternative shelter.  Yet as we looked into the matter, we saw that there was smart grid technology available for deployment that could sharply reduce truck rolls necessary to restore power after storms have hit.  This could reduce both the number of outages and their average duration.  The Berkeley Lab published an exhaustive grid reliability study in August 2015, which we thought would shed light on the subject, but the report failed to ever mention this possible solution.  In quarterly earnings reviews, Generac management and institutional analysts covering this stock seemed to neither volunteer any information about the smart grid nor would they ask about it.  Is grid technology an existential threat to Generac’s business?  In this last segment of our discussion of Generac, we try to piece together this puzzling avoidance of what one would think is a crucial consideration for Generac shareholders.

Generac astutely commandeered the clear leadership position in home standby generators during the late 1990s and after the start of the millennium.  In so doing, it developed an expertise in engines optimized for burning natural gas or propane, such as its 2-cylinder OVHI 1,000 cc displacement engine that can deliver 16 kW of standby power, as well as by making transfer switches and other related technologies.  Moreover, it has structured its supply chain to optimize a position as an “asset light” assembler that can nevertheless exert control over its intellectual property.  But home standby is a niche market, and management has not wanted its growth constrained.  It has used M&A to forge ahead into the commercial & industrial markets, historically the domain of entrenched leaders Cummins Onan and Caterpillar.  It has also become a leader in tower lighting, for which it does not even make engines.  It has also reentered the small-engine portable generator space, and developed a line of power washers.  In this segment, Stocks-in-Depth examines the competitive dynamics affecting Generac in its usual granular and entertaining style, providing cameos of several surprisingly profitable innovators against which Generac must wrestle away market share to succeed.

For at least a decade, Generac's strategy has been to leverage off of its clear leadership in the home standby generator market to establish market share in portable generators, power washers, and commercial & industrial standby electricity generation markets. How successful has it been? How profitable can these adjacencies be? What other companies have done well? What has happened to the poorer performers in the marketplace?

Generac has seen its sales and earnings decline for over two years.  Four powerful storms swept across the U.S. in the 2011-2012 period, but ever since then electric power outages have been well below normal.  In Part 1 of our discussion of Generac, we'll cover what businesses this company runs, and what management's strategy is.   We will have to stop and resume the discussion in Part 2, but you will start to see how our granular approach of deconsolidating and estimating sales and earnings within the backwaters of Generac can yield insight into where this company has been, and how it has changed through this difficult period for standby generators and other related engine products.

Central Garden & Pet contains numerous distinct businesses within its two namesake segments.  In part 3 of this podcast, we spend nearly two hours breaking down the pieces within these segments, and provide granularity so you can appreciate how various rivals compete in each niche.  Along the way, we explode the myth that dog food market, in which Central doesn't have much of a presence, has unappetizing growth and profitability.  "Big dog food" is also the principal actor in the treat sector, but still Central has innovated and enjoyed success in treats and inedibles.  In Garden, we devote much time to describe controls and grass seed.  Part 3 also devotes much of its discussion to special ingredients, which mostly pertain to the flea and tick area.

In Part 2 of the Central Garden & Pet podcast, we continue to review the operations of the company beginning with portions of the Pet segment, mainly Aquatics, Flea & Tick products, calming products, equine, and the professional and special ingredients businesses.  We discuss the Garden segment, especially controls.  Given some of the pieces of the Garden segment seem to have good profit margins, we explore why the other portions of this segment have thin margins, and what actions incoming CEO George Roeth might take to improve the situation.

In Part 1 of this three-part podcast, we start by presenting some background on Central Garden & Pet, and we discuss management changes over the last few years that have affected the company’s strategy.  We draw comparisons in our analysis to other consumer product firms, and discuss management’s ability to achieve acceptable levels of ROI in its two segments.  After this high-level discussion, we take a detailed tour of many of the businesses in its Pet segment, which depending upon the variation of earnings in the problematic Garden segment, we think generally contain about two-thirds of the earnings power of the company.  GARP Research, which is the producer of Stocks-in-Depth, recently published an over 50-page long initiation report on Central Garden & Pet.  In the following two episodes of Stocks in Depth, we will resume with the Aquatics portion within the Pet segment, cover the Garden segment, and then in Part 3 we will devote considerable time to imparting some of our analysis of the competitive dynamics and market sizes for the plethora of businesses in the Pet and Garden segments.

In this podcast, we examine what has caused growth in outerwear, sportswear, and footwear to accelerate since the 2008 credit crisis for key players such as Columbia, North Face, and other brands.  These leading firms have  harnessed the opportunity to use outlet stores and e-commerce to redefine their relationship with their customers and retailers, and in so doing have increased their penetration of these essential apparel markets.  Coming out of the 2008 meltdown, we recount the grotesquely massive bets made by retailers on private label, which helped spur Columbia to develop this strategy.  We evaluate the return on capital of various players, taking a dive into the metrics of retailing to help contrast various approaches, and we touch upon the emergent category of yoga attire.  The industry has been changed on a deeply fundamental level, which we think has benefited the strongest brands over peripheral players, a trend that has had a profound impact upon other industries we have followed in the past, such as the travel market. 

In Part 1 of our podcast of analysis of Power Integrations' stock, we laid out how we saw it fitting in to stock market trends we've seen in 2016, which have been changing from the pattern followed since the credit crisis of 2008-2009.  This company has suffered from stagnant sales and compressed margins.  However, our methodology is to consider long-term trends and corporate milestones, and we think Power Integrations is beginning another such cycle, even if such episodes have in the past not been extremely robust ever since the company made a splash after its IPO in the late 1990s.  We believe InnoSwitch is the company's first major technological advance since 2008-2009, when it introduced LinkSwitch2.  In Part 2 of this podcast, we describe the strategic aspects of how the other major rapid charging competitor has entered the rapid charging market, and why Power Integrations may have taken the high ground in this intriguing opportunity to make external chargers possibly demanded by the roughly 1.2 billion smart phones being sold annually around the world.  We compare its plight Synaptics, and encourage listeners to also review our stock research podcast of that company.  Synaptics has been a supplier of biometrics and touchscreen integrated circuits to Samsung.

The last major milestone for Power Integrations was its release of LinkSwitch2 in late 2008 to early 2009.  LinkSwitch, by our estimate, is the company's leading product family.  However, management stopped reporting sales by product about five years ago.  In this stock research podcast, GARP discusses a wide range of subjects pertaining to this niche semiconductor enterprise.  We aim to demystify the engineering breakthroughs it has achieved, including its latest, InnoSwitch, which is beginning to gain acceptance for what we believe will be the leading rapid charging standard, QC 3.0.   

How much organic growth is really occurring at RealPage?  Is the apartment rental market going to become swamped by capacity?  How profitable is RealPage really, considering that it discusses its results with institutional holders in non-GAAP terms?  What does it look like using more conventional yardsticks?  Is there a large market waiting for it and Yardi to penetrate?  In this podcast of this lesser known stock market listing, GARP Research attempts to unpack these questions through walking listeners through our granular models of the company’s operating results. 

Vocera Communications is dearly valued relative to its present level of sales and red ink has been flowing for several years.  However, 2015 has been a transformational year.  Sales have started to grow and the losses are attenuating.  A few years back it was largely dependent upon communications "badges" largely worn by nurses in hospitals, and it was challenged by new text messaging technologies.  With a fair amount of development spending and some well-conceived, financially reasonable acquisitions, we think recent quarters indicate it seems to be gaining traction on an enterprise level.  How is this affecting clinical systems, and is it improving patient care and streamlining workflow?

Shares of Taser International (TASR) retreated dramatically ever since the riots in Ferguson, MO dominated the headlines in early 2015, about one year ago.  Is the decline because of fundamental factors such as Motorola's decision to enter the body cam and evidence management business, or is it more from the passage of an unpleasant psychological milestone in race relations?  Are international cities rethinking their need for conductive electric weapons or body cameras in the wake of the European Union's 911 moment in Paris last November?    

In part 1 of our discussion of Taser International stock, we explore how there are two segments.  Its conductive electronic weapons (CEWs) enjoy extraordinarily high profitability with mid-30's operating margins fully burdened, and competition barely exists.  The other segment is Axon, which contains its emerging evidence.com cloud-based evidence management system, which reduces paperwork for police officers, helps manage the multi-million dollar risks of large civil settlements, and organizes cases prosecutors advance to convict criminals.  Institutional managers of equities might pass over shares of Taser, because they appear expensive based upon the combined corporate earnings from both segments.  We believe such an approach is deficient, because profits in CEWs are undercut by losses in Axon, where the company is accommodating large trials with cities such as New York and London that might soon purchase a subscription to evidence.com.  In our opinion, Taser showcases how GARP Research has found interesting opportunities for its institutional equity research clientele through intensive fundamental research and deep understanding of how to analyse stocks through modelling financial statements and segment details.

In part 2 of this stock research podcast discussing Entellus Medical, we explore the rough an tumble world of how rivals in the medical device industry can vary from raising a hundred million dollars for companies that wind up having minimal revenues and fail, to the foibles of industry giants such as Johnson and Johnson, which can be outwitted by small, nimble competitors such as Entellus Medical.  We also share with you the lurid side of small companies that raise capital from investors who think new technology can be a panacea, when in reality just a few innovators succeed.  Even when a company develops an advance to the industry's state of the art, it isn't a lead-pipe cinch that it wont fall prey to the political leverage a well-connected political contributor and lobbyist might exert to quash treatments that would save money for insurers, improve outcomes for patients, and raise incomes for doctors, as incredible as that may seem to those who unquestionably support either the left or right ends of the political spectrum.

Entellus Medical came public in January 2015 under the premise that it was the leader in office-based balloon sinus dilation, which was a small but increasingly preferred niche compares to FESS operations performed in hospitals.  The investment research discussed in this podcast examines whether changes in medicare reimbursement may have been a setback that favored hybrid-FESS procedures, and how steroid implants may have temporarily affected what seemed to be an inevitable shift to treating chronic sinusitis in a dentist-like procedure.  We also discuss complications that arise, and the suitability of dealing with these outside of the operating room.  

Institutional investors have heard the story that unified communications is under-penetrated, and that soon most businesses will want to buy Plantronics' headsets that incorporate software compatible with Microsoft's Skype for Business cloud-based platform for office workers.  Why has penetration stalled at a fraction of where consultants thought it would have been already?  This stock research podcast provides equity analysis of Plantronics, and discusses why the penetration rate of unified communications might leap higher at some point in the next few years.  The competitive position of Plantronics and GN Store Nord / GN Netcom is explored fully.  There are high barriers to entry, for there are over 3 million lines of encrypted code in headsets.  These two players are duopolistic competitors, and they are both intensely focused upon returning cash to shareholders rather than destroying shareholder wealth.

Three players are preeminent in the field of precision navigation: Trimble, Hexagon, and Topcon.  Is the competitive dynamic stabilizing?  How are managements dealing with slower revenue growth, and does this mean that end markets are much more penetrated than before?  How rapidly can adoption of building information management (BIM) take place?  What are the implications for profitability going forward?

Trimble Navigation's high-margin geospatial business and its precision navigation systems for farm use have slumped as the dollar has pressured commodities markets.  But the company continues to grow in building information modeling (BIM) software and in mobile solutions for truckers and other fleets and work forces.  Management is seeking to improve profitability, and heavy investment in new features make its precision location software more  indispensable.  As technology continues to advance rapidly, will Trimble be a beneficiary of improved hardware and cloud-based data systems, or will its customers retrench?  Can it continue to make acquisitions, or must it focus inward to improve margins?

We described in Part 1 how Cree, Inc. ramped up its headcount in its LED fabrication operation during the major up-cycle that occurred from 2006 through 2010.  Although fewer bodies have been added since then, there's "only" been a 10% reduction in corporate headcount since the all-time peak in fiscal 2014, and LED sales are now back to where they were before fiscal 2010. Although Cree has changed course to emphasize lighting fixtures, the company still suffers from low gross margins and excessive operating expense relative to sales.  It also pays out a generous stock comp package even though its stock has underperformed Acuity, a pure-LED comparable that has treated its shareholders to the above average returns one might expect when being a leader in such a rapidly growing category. In this podcast, we recap the operations discussion from part 1 (including thoughts about how our model has been changing over time), document how well the rest of the industry is doing, talk about the nature of excess Chinese capacity that was accumulated to accommodate flat screen TV manufacturing back in 2010-2011, and provide some color on what it's been like to participate in the commercial, residential, and overseas markets for LED lighting. Having heard parts 1 and 2, we think you will now have the building blocks to ask the right questions and properly think through whether Cree's breakthrough SC5 technology might separate high power LEDs from those made by commodity LED fabricators, mirroring what happened coming out of the cycle downturn nearly a decade ago.  Importantly, you will want to consider whether Cree, Inc. can continue to grow in line with industry leaders on the lighting fixture side and if downstream margins might improve.

Shares of Cree, Inc. are trading at about the same price as they fetched a decade ago, but at this point in time demand for LEDs for use in commercial lighting applications is very robust.  Other companies involved in this area have enjoyed a warm reception from investors, in stark contrast to Cree.  In this stock research podcast, we explore in detail what is happening in the realm of commercial lighting design and construction, and how Cree’s strategy has positioned this innovative company for the future.  As with many other episodes, we revel in the contrarian nature of the present moment, which we feel can reward those who choose to carefully examine the components of this company’s financial statement reporting and evaluate corporate strategy in a thoughtful and considered way.

Besides having a unique technology, cyrolipolysis, Zeltiq may be able to effectively use this revolutionary platform to address needs beyond the original intention to selectively reduce fat in a non-surgical way.  In 2017, it plans to use CoolSculpting to treat grade 2 cellulite and acne.  Grade 2 cellulite affects a large portion of women, while some other devices target grades 3 or higher, which are characterized by unsightly manifestations like cottage cheese thighs.  By 2018, management hopes to introduce CoolSculpting to treat acne.  In this stock research podcast, we discuss the research of Dr. Rox Anderson of the Harvard Medical School, who delves into the history of acne treatments.  Powdered dry ice and acetone pastes were prevalent in the 1940s and 1950s, but were pushed aside by antibiotics and retinoids.  A tightly controlled approach to cyrolipolysis may improve outcomes and address worries of antibiotic resistance and fetal retinoid syndrome.  Using one platform to treat three conditions would present a unique competitive advantage to Zeltiq, should it succeed.

Zeltiq has single handedly created a new market for reducing fat that targets the moderately overweight segment.  It has become the fastest growing aesthetic treatment, which was already notable for the tremendous demand for neuromodulators like Botox and hyaluronic acid fillers like Restylane and Juvaderm.  In Part 1 of this podcast, we explore how Zeltiq's high margin consumables and systems have permitted the company to break through the barriers that often restrain new aesthetic products.  We also discuss why cyrolipolysis, an affordable and non-surgical procedure, is popular with a new group of women and also men who are approaching practitioners for help in sculpting difficult areas of their bodies that they can't control with dieting or exercise alone.

With the launch of its Roomba 980 vacuum in September 2015, iRobot has added cameras, sensors, and Wi-Fi connectivity.  CEO Colin Angle explains why he feels a roving sensor platform aboard the Roomba places iRobot in a unique position to grab leadership in the connected home of the future, and why fixed-point sensor arrangements such as Nest and Dropcam have suddenly fallen from favor. In an analyst day presentation in New York City, CEO Angle unveiled a new corporate strategy that relies on home connectivity as an engine of differentiation and growth.  In this podcast, we discuss how the company’s new empirical approach to marketing may convert millions of skeptics into evangelistic promoters of robotic vacuums, explore a disruptive opportunity to capture share in lawn mowers and related services, and explain why management is deemphasizing defense and remote presence robots  

Out of the blue we've heard from some smart people interested in this obscure molecular diagnostics company.  Yet it seems few really know what's going on in this space.  All the focus is on the FDA clearance of Luminex's new platform, Aries, which was designed to appeal to hospitals that might otherwise send out complex molecular tests to academic centers or big labs.  In this podcast, Bill Baker, CFA, reveals how despite murky corporate-level profit patterns and excitement about Aries, a quietly building strength in high-margin royalties, assays, and consumables separates Luminex from the rest of the pack.  He shares his insight from years of following a number of molecular diagnostic firms, and debunks misconceptions of where profitability really originates at competitors that would be affected by the launch of Aries.  Next week, Bill travels to attend the Association for Molecular Pathology annual meeting in Austin, TX. 

In 1965 Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, made an astounding prediction that transistor density on chips would double roughly every two years.  But few know that at the same time he warned chip fabricators would hit a wall when the geometries involved became as small as atoms or particles themselves.  IN this podcast, Bill Baker, CFA, describes how this nimble provider of precision power equipment has bucked a morose trend in the semiconductor industry and gained market share among a field of barely profitable competitors.  He also explains why industrial power equipment markets are being targeted by the management of Advanced Energy.

When Synaptics' stock price withered from over $100 per share this summer to the mid-60s, according to Bloomberg a state-backed buyer from China offered to pay $110 per share for the company, and was rebuffed.  What did China see in Synaptics that institutional investors in the U.S. may have missed in this company?  In this podcast, Bill Baker, CFA, tears apart the pieces of the company hidden behind opaque segment reporting and discusses the unique competitive advantages held by Synaptics.

In Myriad's analyst day in NYC on September 14, 2015, management discussed the outlook for several new growth drivers, and it addressed challenges faced in its legacy BRCA1/2 hereditary cancer genetic testing franchise.  We explore what's new, the ins and outs of each opportunity, and delve into the intricacies of companion diagnostics.

Monotype Imaging is regarded as having a unique and somewhat bullet-proof franchise, being a "toll collector" when companies use fonts anywhere from on a laser printer to cloud-based publishing in mobile ads.  But why has there been margin erosion and deceleration of growth?  We explore what's under the hood in this episode...