U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy has shown mildly positive signs this year - jobs continue to be added, the housing market seems to be stabilizing if not improving, and manufacturing has come back - but hopes for a vigorous rebound from the Great Recession have been dashed, or at least deferred. With employment growth waning and fissures in public budgets widening, economic anxieties are adding fuel to the concerns of both Main Street and Wall Street. It's not certain that the presidential election will resolve many of the issues on the table, such as how Washington can strike a deal to avoid the dreaded "fiscal cliff." The panel will consider this and other issues perplexing U.S. business and political leaders, including: Can the U.S. prosper amid the euro zone crisis and slowdown in China? Can corporate profits grow after years of wringing out costs? Does the Federal Reserve have a role to play in the next phase of the recovery?

What are the long-term implications for the United States of investing less than 2 percent of GDP in public infrastructure while other nations allocate far more? (For China, it's 9 percent.) From roads, bridges and sewers to airports and schools, the need is staggering in financial terms. One recent estimate - $50 trillion - is greater than the total of municipal bonds outstanding. Are enough investors and taxpayers out there? Politicians, bankers, pension funds and others have designed public-private partnerships and infrastructure trusts to supplement the tax-exempt market, but the results have been mixed. Does the United States need an infrastructure bank? What can we learn from financing successes in other parts of the world? Taking a global view, our panel will set the foundation for solutions.

In the post-financial crisis economy, start-ups and small businesses have struggled to access the capital necessary to create jobs. Credit markets have tightened, traditional early-stage equity investors are risk-averse and public market IPO activity has contracted. What can we do to improve the financial landscape for launching businesses? What changes to securities laws and innovative approaches, whether technology, government, or investor-based, will free up capital, and what can be done to develop entrepreneurial hubs and ecosystems across the country?

The Milken Institute's annual index of Best-Performing Cities shows that technology and energy are the biggest forces behind America's booming metros. This year's best-performing metro area is Austin, Texas. Other cities that scored high included: Provo, Utah (No. 2, up from seventh place last year); San Francisco (No. 3, up from No. 36); San Jose (No. 4, down from No.1) and Salt Lake City (No. 5, up from No. 6). "Some of the leading tech metros were successful despite being high-cost, high regulation locations," says Ross DeVol, chief research officer of the Milken Institute and one of the report's authors. "Cities like San Francisco, San Jose, and Cambridge have developed R&D assets and infrastructure that makes it easier to innovate there than in lower-cost locations." Other cities in the top tier show how the surging U.S. energy sector is lighting up local economies. The shale oil and gas boom thrust nine metros into the Top 25, including Houston, San Antonio and Corpus Christi in Texas, as well as Bakersfield, Calif. In North Dakota, oil production has increased by more than 400 percent in the last five years, helping place both Fargo and Bismarck in the Top 5 small cities. The Best-Performing Cities index shows where jobs are being created and sustained in metros across the U.S. The index includes measures of job, wage, and technology performance to rank the nation's 200 large metropolitan areas and 179 smaller metros. Unlike other "best places" rankings, it does not use quality-of-life metrics, such as commute times or housing costs. In the Institute's index, employment growth is weighted most heavily due to its critical importance to community vitality. Wage and salary growth measures the quality of jobs created and sustained. See our interactive site for data rankings, social media highlights, interactive maps and highlights from the report: Best Performing Cities Index 2013

Speakers: Gregory Cappelli, CEO, Apollo Group; Chairman, Apollo Global Ross DeVol, Chief Research Officer, Milken Institute Harold Ford Jr., Former U.S. Congressman; Managing Director, Morgan Stanley; Professor, NYU Wagner School of Public Policy J. Todd Morley, Chairman and CEO, G2 Investment Group Eric Spiegel, President and CEO, Siemens USA Moderator: Philippa Thomas, Presenter and Correspondent, BBC News. This year, the American economy has displayed some vigor. With Europe still in a funk, China slowing and Brazil at a standstill, it looks almost robust by contrast. Housing is booming again, exports are setting records and capital goods have enjoyed an upturn. To top it off, expanding gas and oil output promises a new era for U.S. energy, and Silicon Valley remains the world capital of innovation. Nevertheless, job growth has been disappointing. U.S. companies have struggled to lift their top lines, and the timing of the Federal Reserve's "taper" is high on the list of investors' concerns. The nation's politics are as contentious as ever, especially around government debt. Will those divisions stand in the way of a full recovery? What about the stability of the banking system and income inequality? Our expert panel will bring their perspectives to bear on America's efforts to lead, compete and address the many challenges it faces.

Speakers: Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Fellow, Milken Institute; Senior Fellow, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; Former Chief Economist to Vice President Joe Biden Mark Everson, Vice Chairman, alliantgroup, LP; former Commissioner of Internal Revenue Nancy Kopp, Treasurer, State of Maryland Phillip Swagel, Senior Fellow, Milken Institute; Professor, University of Maryland School of Public Policy Moderator: Liz Claman, Anchor, Fox Business Network. Public discussion of tax reform frequently focuses on individual and corporate rates but ignores broader issues that could have significant effects on markets, state finances and the overall economy. From the treatment of foreign real estate investors to MLPs and REITs, from municipal bonds to state tax deductions, these factors can shape how governments fund their programs, investors formulate strategies and companies structure operations. Our panel will examine a range of tax policy proposals with a focus on their impact across the economy.

Speakers: Abby Joseph Cohen, Senior Investment Strategist and President, Global Markets Institute, Goldman Sachs Gary Loveman, Chairman, President and CEO, Caesars Entertainment Corporation Raymond McGuire, Global Head, Corporate and Investment Banking, Citi Jim Moffatt, Chairman and CEO, Deloitte Consulting LLP Maggie Wilderotter, Chairman and CEO, Frontier Communications Moderator: Ross DeVol, Chief Research Officer, Milken Institute. The fundamentals of the U.S. economy seem to be improving. Corporate balance sheets are robust, banks have rebuilt capital buffers, consumers have shed debt, jobs are growing modestly, housing prices have stopped falling, and cheap natural gas has boosted competitiveness in energy-intensive industries. Washington, D.C., did its best to drive the economy over the fiscal cliff at the beginning of the year but veered away at the last minute. How much better might things be if Washington could reach a compromise on taxes and spending that will reduce the medium-term deficit but not cause too much pain in the near term? Can the U.S. recovery gain enough speed to slash the jobless rate despite the eurozone recession? When and how will the Federal Reserve shrink its balance sheet and ease up on asset purchases? Stocks have surged, but have equity markets gotten ahead of themselves and is there froth in high-yield corporate debt? Our panel will combine these issues into a view of the most important trends that lie ahead for the biggest player in the world economy.

Speakers: Bob Corker, U.S. Senator David Cote, Chairman and CEO, Honeywell; Steering Committee Member, Campaign to Fix the Debt Maya MacGuineas, Head, Campaign to Fix the Debt; President, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Peter Orszag, Vice Chairman, Corporate and Investment Banking, Citigroup; former Director, Office of Management and Budget Moderator: Steven Rattner, Chairman, Willett Advisors; former Counselor and Lead Auto Advisor to the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. With outsize debt putting the stability of credit markets and the pace of economic growth at risk, will Americans embrace shared sacrifice to set the country on a path toward fiscal health? Or is the problem essentially the result of gridlock in Washington? And what does "shared sacrifice" actually mean? Who will bear the heavier burden: the rich, the elderly, the middle class? Are Simpson and Bowles still relevant? Our panel will examine the economics and politics around our accumulating public debt and annual deficit, with an eye toward palatable and realistic solutions. Can we grow our way out of the mess? How will we cope with the twin hazards of graying demographics and healthcare inflation? Back to the credit markets: Are Treasuries as safe as they seem?