Podcasts about Morgan Stanley

Earnings season is here, and Wall Street's heavyweights came out swinging. Anthony and Piers unpack how Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley crushed Q2, driven by record trading revenues and a surprise rebound in deal flow.They explore Morgan Stanley's booming wealth arm with $59 billion in fresh inflows, and how JP Morgan's universal model is thriving, from trading floors to retail lending. Plus, BlackRock's puzzling $52 billion client pullout, a bond ETF surge, and crypto ETFs making noise.Also: inflation surprises in the UK and US, and Trump's “Twaco” trade rakes in $64 billion in tariff revenue. A easy to understand breakdown of the macro forces steering the summer markets.(00:00) Intro & Themes in Focus(01:30) Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Earnings(08:07) The Goldman Model Business Explained(10:01) What is FICC and Equities in a Bank?(16:18) Wealth Management and Its Importance(20:46) J.P. Morgan: How a Universal Bank Works(24:35) BlackRock Q2 earnings summary(31:30) Inflation Trends in the UK and US(39:44) Trump Tariff Revenues & TWACO

Mike Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, says he can’t see more than a 5% - 10% market correction as tariffs begin to take hold in the third quarter. He speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Unser Partner Scalable Capital ist der einzige Broker, den du brauchst. Inklusive Trading-Flatrate, Zinsen und Portfolio-Analysen. Alle weiteren Infos gibt's hier: scalable.capital/oaws. Aktien + Whatsapp = Hier anmelden. Lieber als Newsletter? Geht auch. Das Buch zum Podcast? Jetzt lesen. ASML leidet unter 2026. Renault leidet schon 2025. Fuchs hat Dividende, aber schlechte Nachrichten. Johnson & Johnson hat noch mehr Dividende und gute Nachrichten. Goldman Sachs mag die Trump-Panik und Morgan Stanley braucht andere Investmentbanker. Rollins (WKN: 859002) ist das Walmart der Schädlingsbekämpfung und hat sich in den letzten zehn Jahren verfünffacht. Grayscale und Figure wollen an die Börse. Brandon Lutnick ist mit Cantor Equity Partners schon an der Börse und pumpt Milliarden in Bitcoins. Peter Thiel kauft sich bei BitMine ein. CitiGroup und JPMorgan starten Stablecoins. Diesen Podcast vom 17.07.2025, 3:00 Uhr stellt dir die Podstars GmbH (Noah Leidinger) zur Verfügung.

This podcast is great for someone wanting to understand the role of energy and strategies to fuel the long runs or racing events.  If you are looking to plan your long runs and fuel appropriately, this podcast is for you.Vikas talks about the role of energy and of the energy sources.If you would like to learn the basics of energy, its sources and the ways to use the right energy source, this podcast is for you.About Vikas:Vikas, an MBA from Chicago Booth, worked at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Reliance before coming up with the idea of democratizing fitness knowledge and helping beginners get on a fitness journey. Vikas is an avid long-distance runner and is building fitpage to help people learn, train, and move better.For more information on Vikas, or to leave any feedback and requests, you can reach out to him via the channels below:Instagram: @vikas_singhhLinkedIn: Vikas SinghTwitter: @vikashsingh1010Subscribe To Our Newsletter For Weekly Nuggets of Knowledge!

How much of a mess would it be if Powell was fired by the US President? And who might take Powell's place? Hosted by Michelle Martin with Ryan Huang, this episode dives into speculation over Jerome Powell's job, the historic trading win at Goldman Sachs, and market reactions to earnings from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Johnson & Johnson. Find out if Nvidia is riding high or falling flat, and why City Developments surged in Singapore. Companies mentioned: Goldman Sachs, Nvidia, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, CapitaLand, City Developments, Jardine Matheson.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Este miércoles toca analizar nuevos datos de inflación y los resultados de los gigantes empresariales. Los precios al productor en Estados Unidos se mantuvieron estables en junio, desafiando las expectativas. El aumento de los costes de los bienes afectados por los aranceles se ve compensado por la caída de los servicios. El índice de precios al productor sube un 2,3% interanual, ligeramente por debajo de las previsiones, y se mantiene plano mes a mes. En cuanto a los resultados, Goldman Sachs gana un 0,4% tras registrar un aumento del 22% en los beneficios del segundo trimestre. La volatilidad del mercado impulsa sus ingresos por negociación de renta variable hasta máximos históricos. Morgan Stanley también registró un aumento de los beneficios por lo mismo pero sus acciones caen un 1,6%. Bank of America gana un 0,4%. Sufren, por otro lado, los fabricantes estadounidenses de equipos de semiconductores. ASML ha advertido de que podría no alcanzar el crecimiento en 2026 debido a la incertidumbre arancelaria de Estados Unidos. Esta hora tenemos análisis con Roberto Scholtes, de Singular Bank. Y hacemos Gestión del Patrimonio con Javier López, CEO de SilverGold Patrimonio.

Les banques américaines publiaient leurs résultats hierLe secteur bancaire a globalement publié des résultats meilleurs qu'attendu.Après les annonces de résultats de JP Morgan, Citi et Wells Fargo, des institutions comme Bank of America, Morgan Stanley et Goldman Sachs ont également rapporté des chiffres encourageants, notamment grâce à leurs activités de courtage et de banque d'investissement.Renault et ASML évoluaient en forte baisseÀ Paris, le CAC 40 s'effritait pour clôturer en baisse de 0.6%, principalement en raison de la chute de 18% de l'action Renault. Le constructeur a abaissé ses prévisions annuelles, citant une détérioration de la dynamique du marché automobile.Cette annonce a entraîné une chute de l'action, qui a perdu plus de 28% depuis le début de l'année.Parallèlement, l'équipementier néerlandais ASML affichait de bons résultats et des prévisions de croissance de 15% de ses ventes pour 2025.ASML a cependant émis un avertissement implicite sur la possibilité d'une stagnation en 2026, ce qui a pesé sur la confiance des investisseurs provoquant ainsi une baisse de 11% du cours de l'action !Bonne journée à tousHébergé par Ausha. Visitez ausha.co/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Our analysts Paul Walsh, James Lord and Marina Zavolock discuss the dollar's decline, the strength of the euro, and the mixed impact on European equities.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Markets. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of European Product. And today we're discussing the weakness we've seen year-to-date in the U.S. dollar and what this means for the European stock market.It's Tuesday, July the 15th at 3:00 PM in London.I'm delighted to be joined by my colleagues, Marina Zavolock, Morgan Stanley's Chief European Equity Strategist, and James Lord, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global FX Strategist.James, I'm going to start with you because I think we've got a really differentiated view here on the U.S. dollar. And I think when we started the year, the bearish view that we had as a house on the U.S. dollar, I don't think many would've agreed with, frankly. And yet here we are today, and we've seen the U.S. dollar weakness proliferating so far this year – but actually it's more than that.When I listen to your view and the team's view, it sounds like we've got a much more structurally bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar from here, which has got some tenure. So, I don't want to steal your thunder, but why don't you tell us, kind of frame the debate, for us around the U.S. dollar and what you're thinking.James Lord: So, at the beginning of the year, you're right. The consensus was that, you know, the election of Donald Trump was going to deliver another period of what people have called U.S. exceptionalism.Paul Walsh: Yeah.James Lord: And with that it would've been outperformance of U.S. equities, outperformance of U.S. growth, continued capital inflows into the United States and outperformance of the U.S. dollar.At the time we had a slightly different view. I mean, with the help of the economics team, we took the other side of that debate largely on the assumption that actually U.S. growth was quite likely to slow through 2025, and probably into 2026 as well – on the back of restrictions on immigration, lack of fiscal stimulus. And, increasingly as trade tariffs were going to be implemented…Paul Walsh: Yeah. Tariffs, of course…James Lord: That was going to be something that weighed on growth.So that was how we set out the beginning of the year. And as the year has progressed, the story has evolved. Like some of the other things that have happened, around just the extent to which tariff uncertainty has escalated. The section 899 debate.Paul Walsh: Yeah.James Lord: Some of the softness in the data and just the huge amounts of uncertainty that surrounds U.S. policymaking in general has accelerated the decline in the U.S. dollar. So, we do think that this has got further to go. I mean, the targets that we set at the beginning of the year, we kind of already met them. But when we published our midyear outlook, we extended the target.So, we may even have to go towards the bull case target of euro-dollar of 130.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.James Lord: But as the U.S. data slows and the Fed debate really kicks off where at Morgan Stanley U.S. Economics research is expecting the Fed to ultimately cut to 2.5 percent...Paul Walsh: Yeah.Lord: That's really going to really weigh on the dollar as well. And this comes on the back of a 15-year bull market for the dollar.Paul Walsh: That's right.James Lord: From 2010 all the way through to the end of last year, the dollar has been on a tear.Paul Walsh: On a structural bull run.James Lord: Absolutely. And was at the upper end of that long-term historical range. And the U.S. has got 4 percent GDP current account deficit in a slowing growth environment. It's going to be tough for the dollar to keep going up. And so, we think we're sort of not in the early stages, maybe sort of halfway through this dollar decline. But it's a huge change compared to what we've been used to. So, it's going to have big implications for macro, for companies, for all sorts of people.Paul Walsh: Yeah. And I think that last point you make is absolutely critical in terms of the implications for corporates in particular, Marina, because that's what we spend every hour of every working day thinking about. And yes, currency's been on the radar, I get that. But I think this structural dynamic that James alludes to perhaps is not really conventional wisdom still, when I think about the sector analysts and how clients are thinking about the outlook for the U.S. dollar.But the good news is that you've obviously done detailed work in collaboration with the floor to understand the complexities of how this bearish dollar view is percolating across the different stocks and sectors. So, I wondered if you could walk us through what your observations are and what your conclusions are having done the work.Marina Zavolock: First of all, I just want to acknowledge that what you just said there. My background is emerging markets and coming into covering Europe about a year and a half ago, I've been surprised, especially amid the really big, you know, shift that we're seeing that James was highlighting – how FX has been kind of this secondary consideration. In the process of doing this work, I realized that analysts all look at FX in different way. Investors all look at FX in different way. And in …Paul Walsh: So do corporates.Marina Zavolock: Yeah, corporates all look at FX in different way. We've looked a lot at that. Having that EM background where we used to think about FX as much as we thought about equities, it was as fundamental to the story...Paul Walsh: And to be clear, that's because of the volatility…Marina Zavolock: Exactly, which we're now seeing now coming into, you know, global markets effectively with the dollar moves that we've had. What we've done is created or attempted to create a framework for assessing FX exposure by stock, the level of FX mismatches, the types of FX mismatches and the various types of hedging policies that you have for those – particularly you have hedging for transactional FX mismatches.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: And we've looked at this from stock level, sector level, aggregating the stock level data and country level. And basically, overall, some of the key conclusions are that the list of stocks that benefit from Euro strength that we've identified, which is actually a small pocket of the European index. That group of stocks that actually benefits from euro strength has been strongly outperforming the European index, especially year-to-date.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: And just every day it's kind of keeps breaking on a relative basis to new highs. Given the backdrop of James' view there, we expect that to continue. On the other hand, you have even more exposure within the European index of companies that are being hit basically with earnings, downgrades in local currency terms. That into this earning season in particular, we expect that to continue to be a risk for local currency earnings.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: The stocks that are most negatively impacted, they tend to have a lot of dollar exposure or EM exposure where you have pockets of currency weakness as well. So overall what we found through our analysis is that more than half of the European index is negatively exposed to this euro and other local currency strength. The sectors that are positively exposed is a minority of the index. So about 30 percent is either materially or positively exposed to the euro and other local currency strength. And sectors within that in particular that stand out positively exposed utilities, real estate banks. And the companies in this bucket, which we spend a lot of time identifying, they are strongly outperforming the index.They're breaking to new highs almost on a daily basis relative to the index. And I think that's going to continue into earning season because that's going to be one of the standouts positively, amid probably a lot of downgrades for companies who have translational exposure to the U.S. or EM.Paul Walsh: And so, let's take that one step further, Marina, because obviously hedging is an important part of the process for companies. And as we've heard from James, of a 15-year bull run for dollar strength. And so most companies would've been hedging, you know, dollar strength to be fair where they've got mismatches. But what are your observations having looked at the hedging side of the equation?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, so let me start with FX mismatches. So, we find that about half of the European index is exposed to some level of FX mismatches.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: So, you have intra-European currency mismatches. You have companies sourcing goods in Asia or China and shipping them to Europe. So, it's actually a favorable FX mismatch. And then as far as hedging, the type of hedging that tends to happen for companies is related to transactional mismatches. So, these are cost revenue, balance sheet mismatches; cashflow distribution type mismatches. So, they're more the types of mismatches that could create risk rather than translational mismatches, which are – they're just going to happen.Paul Walsh: Yeah.Marina Zavolock: And one of the most interesting aspects of our report is that we found that companies that have advanced hedging, FX hedging programs, they first of all, they tend to outperform, when you compare them to companies with limited or no hedging, despite having transactional mismatches. And secondly, they tend to have lower share price volatility as well, particularly versus the companies with no hedging, which have the most share price volatility.So, the analysis, generally, in Europe of this most, the most probably diversified region globally, is that FX hedging actually does generate alpha and contributes to relative performance.Paul Walsh: Let's connect the two a little bit here now, James, because obviously as companies start to recalibrate for a world where dollar weakness might proliferate for longer, those hedging strategies are going to have to change.So just any kind of insights you can give us from that perspective. And maybe implications across currency markets as a result of how those behavioral changes might play out, I think would be very interesting for our listeners.James Lord: Yeah, I think one thing that companies can do is change some of the tactics around how they implement the hedges. So, this can revolve around both the timing and also the full extent of the hedge ratios that they have. I mean, some companies who are – in our conversations with them when they're talking about their hedging policy, they may have a range. Maybe they don't hedge a 100 percent of the risk that they're trying to hedge. They might have to do something between 80 and a hundred percent. So, you can, you can adjust your hedge ratios…Paul Walsh: Adjust the balances a bit.James Lord: Yeah. And you can delay the timing of them as well.The other side of it is just deciding like exactly what kind of instrument to use to hedge as well. I mean, you can hedge just using pure spot markets. You can use forward markets and currencies. You can implement different types of options, strategies.And I think this was some of the information that we were trying to glean from the survey was this question that Marina was asking about. Do you have a limited or advanced hedging program? Typically, we would find that corporates that have advanced programs might be using more options-based strategies, for example. And you know, one of the pieces of analysis in the report that my colleague Dave Adams did was really looking at the effectiveness of different strategies depending on the market environment that we're in.So, are we in a sort of risk-averse market environment, high vol environment? Different types of strategies work for different types of market environments. So, I would encourage all corporates that are thinking about implementing some kind of hedging strategy to have a look at that document because it provides a lot of information about the different ways you can implement your hedges. And some are much more cost effective than others.Paul Walsh: Marina, last thought from you?Marina Zavolock: I just want to say overall for Europe there is this kind of story about Europe has no growth, which we've heard for many years, and it's sort of true. It is true in local currency terms. So European earnings growth now on consensus estimates for this year is approaching one percent; it's close to 1 percent. On the back of the moves we've already seen in FX, we're probably going to go negative by the time this earning season is over in local currency terms. But based on our analysis, that is primarily impacted by translation.So, it is just because Europe has a lot of exposure to the U.S., it has some EM exposure. So, I would just really emphasize here that for investors; so, investors, many of which don't hedge FX, when you're comparing Europe growth to the U.S., it's probably better to look in dollar terms or at least in constant currency terms. And in dollar terms, European earnings growth at this point are 7.6 percent in dollar terms. That's giving Europe the benefit for the euro exposure that it has in other local currencies.So, I think these things, as FX starts to be front of mind for investors more and more, these things will become more common focus points. But right now, a lot of investors just compare local currency earnings growth.Paul Walsh: So, this is not a straightforward topic, and we obviously think this is a very important theme moving through the balance of this year. But clearly, you're going to see some immediate impact moving through the next quarter of earnings.Marina and James, thanks as always for helping us make some sense of it all.James Lord: Thanks, Paul.Marina Zavolock: Thank you.Paul Walsh: And to our listeners out there, thank you as always for tuning in.If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

U.S. tariffs have had limited impact so far on inflation and corporate earnings. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why – and when – that might change.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about why tariffs are showing up everywhere – but the data; and why we think this changes this quarter. It's Wednesday, July 16th at 2pm in London. Investors have faced tariff headlines since at least February. The fact that it's now mid-July and markets are still grinding higher is driving some understandable skepticism that they're going to have their promised impact. Indeed, we imagine that maybe more of one of you is groaning and saying, ‘What? Another tariff episode?' But we do think this theme remains important for markets. And above all, it's a factor we think is going to hit very soon. We think it's kind of now – the third quarter – when the promised impact of tariffs on economic data and earnings really start to come through. My colleague Jenna Giannelli and I discussed some of the reasons why, on last week's episode focused on the retail sector. But what I want to do next is give a little bit of that a broader context. Where I want to start is that it's really about tariff impact picking up right about now. The inflation readings that we got earlier this week started to show US core inflation picking up again, driven by more tariff sensitive sectors. And while second quarter earnings that are being reported right about now, we think will generally be fine, and maybe even a bit better than expected; the third quarter earnings that are going to be generated over the next several months, we think those are more at risk from tariff related impact. And again, this could be especially pronounced in the consumer and retail sector. So why have tariffs not mattered so much so far, and why would that change very soon? The first factor is that tariff rates are increasing rapidly. They've moved up quickly to a historically high 9 percent as of today; even with all of the pauses and delays. And recently announced actions by the US administration over just the last couple of weeks could effectively double this rate again -- from 9 percent to somewhere between 15 to 20 percent.A second reason why this is picking up now is that tariff collections are picking up now. US Customs collected over $26 billion in tariffs in June, which annualizes out to about 1 percent of GDP, a very large number. These collections were not nearly as high just three months ago. Third, tariffs have seen pauses and delayed starts, which would delay the impact. And tariffs also exempted goods that were in transit, which can be significant from goods coming from Europe or Asia; again, a factor that would delay the impact. But these delays are starting to come to fruition as those higher tariff collections and higher tariff rates would suggest. And finally, companies did see tariffs coming and tried to mitigate them. They ordered a lot of inventory ahead of tariff rates coming into effect. But by the third quarter, we think they've sold a lot of that inventory, meaning they no longer get the benefit. Companies ordered a lot of socks before tariffs went into effect. But by the third quarter and those third quarter earnings, we think they will have sold them all. And the new socks they're ordering, well, they come with a higher cost of goods sold. In short, we think it's reasonable to expect that the bulk of the impact of tariffs and economic and earnings data still lies ahead, especially in this quarter – the third quarter of 2025. We continue to think that it's probably in August and September rather than June-July, where the market will care more about these challenges as core inflation data continues to pick up. For credit, this leaves us with an up in quality bias, especially as we move through that August to September period. And as Jenna and I discussed last week, we are especially cautious on the retail credit sector, which we think is more exposed to these various factors converging in the third quarter. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen; and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Today, Scott shares eight stories worth following, including the producer price index coming in flat after an elevated June consumer price index and Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America all reporting increased earnings today.

Banks Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reported stronger-than-forecast profits, as tariff-related market turbulence boosted trading revenue. Plus: Shares in car companies Ford, Renault and Stellantis fall. And, Chip-equipment supplier ASML said it couldn't guarantee growth in 2026, due to worsening tariff uncertainty. Charlotte Gartenberg hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Another promising read on inflation this morning: Sara Eisen and Carl Quintanilla kicked off the hour discussing where things stand when it comes to prices, tariffs, and the broader market rally before diving into the tech trade with Melius's Ben Reitzes – who argues Nvidia could be the first company worth $5T. Plus: hear from longtime market veteran and Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian about what's next from the Fed… And why he says a rate cut could come sooner than expected.  Also in focus: new numbers out of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley – what investors should know, this hour; the latest from Capitol Hill on the crypto front, as Bitcoin and related stocks rally; and a deep-dive on whether the wealthy really would leave NYC if Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor. 

Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer explored what to make of a second day of bank earnings, led by Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The chip sector's record run also in the spotlight, led by Nvidia trading at all-time highs. The anchors reacted to comments made by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in Beijing about doing business in China. The Producer Price Index for June comes in tamer than expected, showing wholesale inflation unchanged month-on-month. Also in focus: ASML drags chip equipment stocks lower, Johnson & Johnson jumps on earnings, President Trump from trade to your 401(K), crypto legislation vote watch. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Andre Dos Santos y Eugenio Garibay analizan a fondo los resultados financieros de tres gigantes de Wall Street: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley y Bank of America. El episodio arranca desglosando las cifras clave, el contexto de las expectativas de los analistas y los comentarios internos de las directivas de cada entidad bancaria, exponiendo qué elementos sorprendieron al mercado y qué retos persisten para el sector financiero en este inicio de temporada de reportes.Después, el foco se desplaza hacia el dato recién publicado del Índice de Precios al Productor (PPI), explorando el impacto inmediato de la cifra sobre la narrativa de la inflación, la política monetaria de la Reserva Federal y las implicaciones para el entorno macroeconómico e inversor en Estados Unidos.Finalmente, el episodio culmina con un debate sobre la histórica inversión anunciada el día anterior en Pennsylvania, donde $92 mil millones en capital privado prometen transformar el estado en el epicentro energético y tecnológico del país. Andre y Eugenio detallan quiénes estuvieron detrás del proyecto, la relevancia bipartidista del evento, los sectores que recibirán mayor impulso y las oportunidades económicas y laborales que se avecinan.

Today, Scott shares eight stories worth following, including the producer price index coming in flat after an elevated June consumer price index and Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America all reporting increased earnings today.

US President Trump says he is working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st. Also notes that pharma tariffs will probably begin at month-end and initial tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be lowEuropean bourses are mixed having clambered off early morning lows, Autos/Tech lags following results from Renault and ASML.US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark, NQ lags as it digests ASML's results where it walked back on its 2026 growth outlook amid tariff uncertainty.DXY essentially flat awaiting US PPI, GBP digests hot inflation metrics.EGBs slightly heavy into the MMF, Gilts lag on CPI, USTs flat before PPI.Looking ahead, US PPI, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation, Speakers including Fed's Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams. Earnings from J&J, PNC, BAC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the lacklustre handover from Wall St.US President Trump says he is working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st.European equity futures indicate a marginally softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.DXY is fractionally softer after gaining again yesterday, EUR/USD has returned to a 1.16 handle, Cable sits sub-1.34 pre-CPI.France's Marine Le Pen warned that if French PM Bayrou does not revise his public spending plan they "will seek to topple him".Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, US PPI, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation, Fed's Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams, Supply from Germany, Earnings from J&J, PNC, BAC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, ASML & Sandvik.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Beleggers en analisten droomden van het cijferseizoen, maar ASML maakt er een kleine nachtmerrie van. Ineens durft de directie niet meer te voorspellen. Ze weten niet of ze volgend jaar nog groeien. Iets waar ze drie maanden geleden nog wél vanuit gingen. Het zorgt voor een enorme klap voor het aandeel. Ruim 11 procent eraf. ASML trekt bovendien andere tech-aandelen mee in z'n val. Deze aflevering hebben we het over die gigantische tegenvaller. En over die onzekerheid. Waar komt die onzekerheid precies vandaan en wanneer is 'ie weg? Naast ASML hebben we het ook over de tegenaanval van Europa. Volgens persbureau Bloomberg zijn de Fransen namelijk helemaal klaar met Trump en zijn dreigementen en zetten ze zwaar geschut is. Meerdere landen willen meedoen, al is een deel enorm bang voor een escalerende handelsoorlog. Een slagveld, zo is de handelsdag voor Renault het best te omschrijven. De topman vertrekt en laat het bedrijf achter met beroerde cijfers. Beleggers schrikken zo erg van die resultaten (en de vooruitblik), dat het aandeel Renault een van de ergste dagen ooit beleefd. Verder hebben we het over Jensen Huang van Nvidia, die is zich aan het inlikken in China. Scott Bessent hoeft zich dan weer niet in te likken bij president Trump. Die ligt zo goed bij hem, dat hij hem openlijk noemt als de nieuwe Fed-baas. Sluiten we af met goed nieuws. Goldman Sachs overtreft alles en iedereen. Schrijft zelfs geschiedenis!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Morgan Stanley's bullish report on US LNG stocks last week gave the sector a lift. The biggest impact was felt by NextDecade (NEXT), which was up 17%, bringing its market cap to $2.8BN. NEXT is still a small cap stock with no dividend, unusual for the midstream sector which is dominated by large-cap, investment grade […]

Candela Casanueva, gestora de Renta 4 Gestora, analiza con lupa Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sach, Johnson & Johnson y Nvidia.

Timestamps:5:11 - Hire your first 15-25 employees super carefully10:35 - Incentives and ownership in company culture15:28 - What can Switzerland learn from the US?Click here to order your copy of “Swiss Startups” today.About Victoria Ransom:⁠Victoria Ransom⁠ is the co-founder of Wildfire, a social marketing software-as-a-service company which was acquired by Google, and of ⁠Prisma⁠, a global virtual school (grades 4-12). She holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and worked as a Financial Analyst at Morgan Stanley before co-founding Access Trips, the travel startup that led her to creating Wildfire.During her chat with Silvan, Victoria reflected back on the values which sustained Wildfire and which drive Prisma nowadays. She highlighted the importance of hiring your first 15-25 employees extremely carefully, as these people will set the tone for future hires. She also emphasized the competitive advantage that a strong company culture can bring, since execution often matters more for success than merely having a great business idea.Victoria argued that incentives like bonuses should complement but never replace a strong culture, and she encouraged Swiss entrepreneurs to learn from their American counterparts: it never pays off to be too humble.The cover portrait was edited by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.smartportrait.io⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.‍Don't forget to give us a follow on⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linkedin⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠Youtube ⁠⁠so you can always stay up to date with our latest initiatives. That way, there's no excuse for missing out on live shows, weekly giveaways or founders' dinners.

Mit Ausnahme von ASML, fallen die seit gestern Abend gemeldeten Quartalszahlen überwiegend erfreulich aus. Im Bankensektor schlagen nun auch die Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley und PNC Financial die Ertragsziele der Wall Street. Zudem sehen wir ein insgesamt gesundes Kreditwachstum, mit abkühlenden Kreditausfällen. Ein gutes Omen für die Verbraucher und Wirtschaft. ASML kann die Ziele zwar schlagen, redet aber die Aussichten für 2026 nach unten. Der Wert steht entsprechend unter Druck. Was den Tech-Sektor erneut stützen sollte, sind anhaltend positive Stimmen von Analysten. Heute werden die Kursziele von Amazon, AMD, Fortinet, Google, IBM, Meta und Roblox angehoben. Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. +++Erhalte einen exklusiven 15% Rabatt auf Saily eSIM Datentarife! Lade die Saily-App herunter und benutze den Code wallstreet beim Bezahlen: https://saily.com/wallstreet +++ +++EXKLUSIVER NordVPN Deal ➼ https://nordvpn.com/Wallstreet Jetzt risikofrei testen mit einer 30-Tage-Geld-zurück-Garantie!+++ +++ Alle Rabattcodes und Infos zu unseren Werbepartnern findet ihr hier: https://linktr.ee/wallstreet_podcast +++ Der Podcast wird vermarktet durch die Ad Alliance. Die allgemeinen Datenschutzrichtlinien der Ad Alliance finden Sie unter https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html Die Ad Alliance verarbeitet im Zusammenhang mit dem Angebot die Podcasts-Daten. Wenn Sie der automatischen Übermittlung der Daten widersprechen wollen, klicken Sie hier: https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html

Mit Ausnahme von ASML, fallen die seit gestern Abend gemeldeten Quartalszahlen überwiegend erfreulich aus. Im Bankensektor schlagen nun auch die Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley und PNC Financial die Ertragsziele der Wall Street. Zudem sehen wir ein insgesamt gesundes Kreditwachstum, mit abkühlenden Kreditausfällen. Ein gutes Omen für die Verbraucher und Wirtschaft. ASML kann die Ziele zwar schlagen, redet aber die Aussichten für 2026 nach unten. Der Wert steht entsprechend unter Druck. Was den Tech-Sektor erneut stützen sollte, sind anhaltend positive Stimmen von Analysten. Heute werden die Kursziele von Amazon, AMD, Fortinet, Google, IBM, Meta und Roblox angehoben. Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! ____ Folge uns, um auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben: • X: http://fal.cn/SQtwitter • LinkedIn: http://fal.cn/SQlinkedin • Instagram: http://fal.cn/SQInstagram

Wall Street recorded a modestly positive session despite major indices such as the S&P500 and the Nasdaq falling over 1% after Bloomberg reported that Trump would fire Fed chair Jerome Powell – Trump quickly denied the rumours, settling markets. S&P 500 up 0.32%, Nasdaq up 0.25%. Dow started flat, sharply dived on the Powell rumours, and recovered after Trump denied them, steadily rising from there. Closed near high, up 231 points. Strong sector breadth. Cyclicals flat and Energy followed oil down, otherwise all sectors up. Healthcare the best performer. Boosted by Johnson & Johnson, which rose 6.2% after its strong earnings guidance which halved expectations for tariff-related costs. REITS and Financials next best performers, yields fell, and multiple earnings beating expectations, although the individual companies had mixed responses – Goldman Sachs (+0.9%), Bank of America (-0.3%), Morgan Stanley (-1.3%).  Resources down, weaker dollar couldn't boost them. Oil down again, US inventory build increasing supply without rise in demand. Copper modestly down 0.2%, nickel and lead down over 1%.ASX to rise. SPI futures up 54 points (+0.63%).Want to invest with Marcus Today? The Managed Strategy Portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Este miércoles toca analizar nuevos datos de inflación y los resultados de los gigantes empresariales. Los precios al productor en Estados Unidos se mantuvieron estables en junio, desafiando las expectativas. El aumento de los costes de los bienes afectados por los aranceles se ve compensado por la caída de los servicios. El índice de precios al productor sube un 2,3% interanual, ligeramente por debajo de las previsiones, y se mantiene plano mes a mes. En cuanto a los resultados, Goldman Sachs gana un 0,4% tras registrar un aumento del 22% en los beneficios del segundo trimestre. La volatilidad del mercado impulsa sus ingresos por negociación de renta variable hasta máximos históricos. Morgan Stanley también registró un aumento de los beneficios por lo mismo pero sus acciones caen un 1,6%. Bank of America gana un 0,4%. Sufren, por otro lado, los fabricantes estadounidenses de equipos de semiconductores. ASML ha advertido de que podría no alcanzar el crecimiento en 2026 debido a la incertidumbre arancelaria de Estados Unidos. Esta hora tenemos análisis con Roberto Scholtes, de Singular Bank. Y hacemos Gestión del Patrimonio con Javier López, CEO de SilverGold Patrimonio.

Las bolsas europeas operan mixtas el miércoles y los futuros de Wall Street se lo toman con calma. Hay cautela entre los inversores ante, por ejemplo, los indicios de que los aranceles estadounidenses podrían causar inflación. El dato de ayer de IPC llevó al mercado a reducir sus expectativas de recortes de tipos de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal. Hoy hay más referencias de precios. Se conocen los de producción. En deuda, el rendimiento del bono alemán a 10 años cotiza plano al 2,70% y su par estadounidense baja al 4,47% desde los máximos tocados en la sesión anterior. La atención gira también sobre los resultados, en especial los de grandes bancos como Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley y Bank of America. En las materias primas, los precios del crudo bajan levemente, ya que las señales de un mayor consumo petrolero en China se ven superadas por la cautela de los inversores sobre el impacto económico de los aranceles. El oro mejora un 0,5%, a 3.338 dólares la onza. Lo analizamos todo con José Basagoiti, de Trading Pro.

Beleggers en analisten droomden van het cijferseizoen, maar ASML maakt er een kleine nachtmerrie van. Ineens durft de directie niet meer te voorspellen. Ze weten niet of ze volgend jaar nog groeien. Iets waar ze drie maanden geleden nog wél vanuit gingen. Het zorgt voor een enorme klap voor het aandeel. Ruim 11 procent eraf. ASML trekt bovendien andere tech-aandelen mee in z'n val. Deze aflevering hebben we het over die gigantische tegenvaller. En over die onzekerheid. Waar komt die onzekerheid precies vandaan en wanneer is 'ie weg? Naast ASML hebben we het ook over de tegenaanval van Europa. Volgens persbureau Bloomberg zijn de Fransen namelijk helemaal klaar met Trump en zijn dreigementen en zetten ze zwaar geschut is. Meerdere landen willen meedoen, al is een deel enorm bang voor een escalerende handelsoorlog. Een slagveld, zo is de handelsdag voor Renault het best te omschrijven. De topman vertrekt en laat het bedrijf achter met beroerde cijfers. Beleggers schrikken zo erg van die resultaten (en de vooruitblik), dat het aandeel Renault een van de ergste dagen ooit beleefd. Verder hebben we het over Jensen Huang van Nvidia, die is zich aan het inlikken in China. Scott Bessent hoeft zich dan weer niet in te likken bij president Trump. Die ligt zo goed bij hem, dat hij hem openlijk noemt als de nieuwe Fed-baas. Sluiten we af met goed nieuws. Goldman Sachs overtreft alles en iedereen. Schrijft zelfs geschiedenis!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our analysts Paul Walsh, James Lord and Marina Zavolock discuss the dollar's decline, the strength of the euro, and the mixed impact on European equities.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Markets. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of European Product. And today we're discussing the weakness we've seen year-to-date in the U.S. dollar and what this means for the European stock market. It's Tuesday, July the 15th at 3:00 PM in London.I'm delighted to be joined by my colleagues, Marina Zavolock, Morgan Stanley's Chief European Equity Strategist, and James Lord, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global FX Strategist. James, I'm going to start with you because I think we've got a really differentiated view here on the U.S. dollar. And I think when we started the year, the bearish view that we had as a house on the U.S. dollar, I don't think many would've agreed with, frankly. And yet here we are today, and we've seen the U.S. dollar weakness proliferating so far this year – but actually it's more than that.When I listen to your view and the team's view, it sounds like we've got a much more structurally bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar from here, which has got some tenure. So, I don't want to steal your thunder, but why don't you tell us, kind of frame the debate, for us around the U.S. dollar and what you're thinking.James Lord: So, at the beginning of the year, you're right. The consensus was that, you know, the election of Donald Trump was going to deliver another period of what people have called U.S. exceptionalism. Paul Walsh: Yeah.James Lord: And with that it would've been outperformance of U.S. equities, outperformance of U.S. growth, continued capital inflows into the United States and outperformance of the U.S. dollar. At the time we had a slightly different view. I mean, with the help of the economics team, we took the other side of that debate largely on the assumption that actually U.S. growth was quite likely to slow through 2025, and probably into 2026 as well – on the back of restrictions on immigration, lack of fiscal stimulus. And, increasingly as trade tariffs were going to be implemented…Paul Walsh: Yeah. Tariffs, of course…James Lord: That was going to be something that weighed on growth.So that was how we set out the beginning of the year. And as the year has progressed, the story has evolved. Like some of the other things that have happened, around just the extent to which tariff uncertainty has escalated. The section 899 debate. Paul Walsh: Yeah. James Lord: Some of the softness in the data and just the huge amounts of uncertainty that surrounds U.S. policymaking in general has accelerated the decline in the U.S. dollar. So, we do think that this has got further to go. I mean, the targets that we set at the beginning of the year, we kind of already met them. But when we published our midyear outlook, we extended the target.So, we may even have to go towards the bull case target of euro-dollar of 130.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. James Lord: But as the U.S. data slows and the Fed debate really kicks off where at Morgan Stanley U.S. Economics research is expecting the Fed to ultimately cut to 2.5 percent... Paul Walsh: Yeah. Lord: That's really going to really weigh on the dollar as well. And this comes on the back of a 15-year bull market for the dollar. Paul Walsh: That's right. James Lord: From 2010 all the way through to the end of last year, the dollar has been on a tear. Paul Walsh: On a structural bull run.James Lord: Absolutely. And was at the upper end of that long-term historical range. And the U.S. has got 4 percent GDP current account deficit in a slowing growth environment. It's going to be tough for the dollar to keep going up. And so, we think we're sort of not in the early stages, maybe sort of halfway through this dollar decline. But it's a huge change compared to what we've been used to. So, it's going to have big implications for macro, for companies, for all sorts of people.Paul Walsh: Yeah. And I think that last point you make is absolutely critical in terms of the implications for corporates in particular, Marina, because that's what we spend every hour of every working day thinking about. And yes, currency's been on the radar, I get that. But I think this structural dynamic that James alludes to perhaps is not really conventional wisdom still, when I think about the sector analysts and how clients are thinking about the outlook for the U.S. dollar. But the good news is that you've obviously done detailed work in collaboration with the floor to understand the complexities of how this bearish dollar view is percolating across the different stocks and sectors. So, I wondered if you could walk us through what your observations are and what your conclusions are having done the work.Marina Zavolock: First of all, I just want to acknowledge that what you just said there. My background is emerging markets and coming into covering Europe about a year and a half ago, I've been surprised, especially amid the really big, you know, shift that we're seeing that James was highlighting – how FX has been kind of this secondary consideration. In the process of doing this work, I realized that analysts all look at FX in different way. Investors all look at FX in different way. And in …Paul Walsh: So do corporates.Marina Zavolock: Yeah, corporates all look at FX in different way. We've looked a lot at that. Having that EM background where we used to think about FX as much as we thought about equities, it was as fundamental to the story...Paul Walsh: And to be clear, that's because of the volatility…Marina Zavolock: Exactly, which we're now seeing now coming into, you know, global markets effectively with the dollar moves that we've had. What we've done is created or attempted to create a framework for assessing FX exposure by stock, the level of FX mismatches, the types of FX mismatches and the various types of hedging policies that you have for those – particularly you have hedging for transactional FX mismatches. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. Marina Zavolock: And we've looked at this from stock level, sector level, aggregating the stock level data and country level. And basically, overall, some of the key conclusions are that the list of stocks that benefit from Euro strength that we've identified, which is actually a small pocket of the European index. That group of stocks that actually benefits from euro strength has been strongly outperforming the European index, especially year-to-date.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: And just every day it's kind of keeps breaking on a relative basis to new highs. Given the backdrop of James' view there, we expect that to continue. On the other hand, you have even more exposure within the European index of companies that are being hit basically with earnings, downgrades in local currency terms. That into this earning season in particular, we expect that to continue to be a risk for local currency earnings. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: The stocks that are most negatively impacted, they tend to have a lot of dollar exposure or EM exposure where you have pockets of currency weakness as well. So overall what we found through our analysis is that more than half of the European index is negatively exposed to this euro and other local currency strength. The sectors that are positively exposed is a minority of the index. So about 30 percent is either materially or positively exposed to the euro and other local currency strength. And sectors within that in particular that stand out positively exposed utilities, real estate banks. And the companies in this bucket, which we spend a lot of time identifying, they are strongly outperforming the index.They're breaking to new highs almost on a daily basis relative to the index. And I think that's going to continue into earning season because that's going to be one of the standouts positively, amid probably a lot of downgrades for companies who have translational exposure to the U.S. or EM.Paul Walsh: And so, let's take that one step further, Marina, because obviously hedging is an important part of the process for companies. And as we've heard from James, of a 15-year bull run for dollar strength. And so most companies would've been hedging, you know, dollar strength to be fair where they've got mismatches. But what are your observations having looked at the hedging side of the equation?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, so let me start with FX mismatches. So, so we find that about half of the European index is exposed to some level of FX mismatches. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. Marina Zavolock: So, you have intra-European currency mismatches. You have companies sourcing goods in Asia or China and shipping them to Europe. So, it's actually a favorable FX mismatch. And then as far as hedging, the type of hedging that tends to happen for companies is related to transactional mismatches. So, these are cost revenue, balance sheet mismatches; cashflow distribution type mismatches. So, they're more the types of mismatches that could create risk rather than translational mismatches, which are – they're just going to happen.Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: And one of the most interesting aspects of our report is that we found that companies that have advanced hedging, FX hedging programs, they first of all, they tend to outperform, when you compare them to companies with limited or no hedging, despite having transactional mismatches. And secondly, they tend to have lower share price volatility as well, particularly versus the companies with no hedging, which have the most share price volatility. So, the analysis, generally, in Europe of this most, the most probably diversified region globally, is that FX hedging actually does generate alpha and contributes to relative performance.Paul Walsh: Let's connect the two a little bit here now, James, because obviously as companies start to recalibrate for a world where dollar weakness might proliferate for longer, those hedging strategies are going to have to change.So just any kind of insights you can give us from that perspective. And maybe implications across currency markets as a result of how those behavioral changes might play out, I think would be very interesting for our listeners.James Lord: Yeah, I think one thing that companies can do is change some of the tactics around how they implement the hedges. So, this can revolve around both the timing and also the full extent of the hedge ratios that they have. I mean, some companies who are – in our conversations with them when they're talking about their hedging policy, they may have a range. Maybe they don't hedge a 100 percent of the risk that they're trying to hedge. They might have to do something between 80 and a hundred percent. So, you can, you can adjust your hedge ratios…Paul Walsh: Adjust the balances a bit.James Lord: Yeah. And you can delay the timing of them as well.The other side of it is just deciding like exactly what kind of instrument to use to hedge as well. I mean, you can hedge just using pure spot markets. You can use forward markets and currencies. You can implement different types of options, strategies. And I think this was some of the information that we were trying to glean from the survey was this question that Marina was asking about. Do you have a limited or advanced hedging program? Typically, we would find that corporates that have advanced programs might be using more options-based strategies, for example. And you know, one of the pieces of analysis in the report that my colleague Dave Adams did was really looking at the effectiveness of different strategies depending on the market environment that we're in.So, are we in a sort of risk-averse market environment, high vol environment? Different types of strategies work for different types of market environments. So, I would encourage all corporates that are thinking about implementing some kind of hedging strategy to have a look at that document because it provides a lot of information about the different ways you can implement your hedges. And some are much more cost effective than others.Paul Walsh: Marina, last thought from you? Marina Zavolock: I just want to say overall for Europe there is this kind of story about Europe has no growth, which we've heard for many years, and it's sort of true. It is true in local currency terms. So European earnings growth now on consensus estimates for this year is approaching one percent; it's close to 1 percent. On the back of the moves we've already seen in FX, we're probably going to go negative by the time this earning season is over in local currency terms. But based on our analysis, that is primarily impacted by translation.So, it is just because Europe has a lot of exposure to the U.S., it has some EM exposure. So, I would just really emphasize here that for investors; so, investors, many of which don't hedge FX, when you're comparing Europe growth to the U.S., it's probably better to look in dollar terms or at least in constant currency terms. And in dollar terms, European earnings growth at this point are 7.6 percent in dollar terms. That's giving Europe the benefit for the euro exposure that it has in other local currencies. So, I think these things, as FX starts to be front of mind for investors more and more, these things will become more common focus points. But right now, a lot of investors just compare local currency earnings growth.Paul Walsh: So, this is not a straightforward topic, and we obviously think this is a very important theme moving through the balance of this year. But clearly, you're going to see some immediate impact moving through the next quarter of earnings. Marina and James, thanks as always for helping us make some sense of it all.James Lord: Thanks, Paul. Marina Zavolock: Thank you.Paul Walsh: And to our listeners out there, thank you as always for tuning in.If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

 What's the purpose of business? What's the purpose of government? Has 20 years of higher education spending led to better student performance?  Dominic Pino is joined by David Bahnsen to explore these questions on the latest episode of Econception. David Bahnsen is the founder and managing partner of The Bahnsen Group, a national private wealth management firm managing over $4 billion in client assets. Prior to launching The Bahnsen Group, he spent eight years as a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley and six years as a Vice President at UBS. Bahnsen is also a contributor to several prominent outlets and a best-selling author.

The best CEOs know how to hold the long-term vision—while building the structure and discipline needed to scale sustainably. That's according to Henry Ward, Founder and CEO of Carta, a networked enterprise resource planning (ERP) platform for private capital markets.In this episode, Henry joins host Rodney Bolden to reflect on his founder journey and the leadership lessons he's learned along the way. They discuss “founder mode,” how the founder mindset evolves as a company grows, and how to manage the tension between innovation and operational rigor within a company. They also cover why more companies are staying private longer and how private companies are offering meaningful equity and liquidity to retain top talent, from early-stage startup to late-stage growth. Follow Invested at Work wherever you listen to or watch podcasts. Visit MorganStanley.com/atwork for more insights on workplace financial benefits. Visit Carta.com to learn more about Henry's work with Carta. Invested at Work is brought to you by Morgan Stanley at Work, hosted by Rodney Bolden. Our executive producers are Fiona Kelsey and Lisa Boyce. Our production partner is Sequel Media Inc. This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Guest speakers from outside Morgan Stanley Wealth Management are neither employees of or affiliated with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Opinions expressed by such guest speakers are solely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates.Morgan Stanley and Carta are not affiliated and this presentation should not be treated as an endorsement of Carta or its products and services. This material may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. 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In this episode, Tom Levine asks Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies how she uses technical analysis—price charts, support and resistance levels, and momentum signals—to interpret market behavior. The summer of 2025 has brought new stock market highs even in the face of tariffs, potential trade wars, shooting wars, a declining dollar and continued volatility across asset classes.Katie Stockton, CMT is a nationally recognized expert in technical analysis and the founder of Fairlead Strategies, an independent research firm.Her approach helps investors and advisors navigate complex markets through structure, not speculation.Katie's work encompasses all major sectors of the stock market, the bond market, gold, and bitcoin/crypto — with a disciplined, chart-driven method grounded in technical indicators and trend analysis.This conversation was recorded in July 2025 as part of the Native Angelino Podcast with Tom Levine and is the third in the series with Katie. Links to the archived episodes are in the show notes.About Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, CMT is Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, an independent research firm and investment advisor focused on technical analysis. She is the portfolio manager for the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK), launched in 2022.Prior to forming Fairlead Strategies, Katie spent more than 20 years on Wall Street providing technical research and advice to institutional investors. She served as Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners, and worked with teams at Morgan Stanley and Wit Soundview.Katie holds the distinction of being the youngest female to have attained the Chartered Market Technician (CMT®) designation in 2001. She has served as Vice President of the CMT Association and currently sits on the board of Cary Street Partners.As an official CNBC contributor, she regularly shares market perspectives and is often quoted in Barron's and MarketWatch.—

Ce matin dans le Morning Mood :

Stocks hold steady as tariff uncertainty continues. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains how policy deferrals, earnings resilience and forward guidance are driving the market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why stocks remain so resilient. It's Monday, July 14th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Why has the equity market been resilient in the face of new tariff announcements? Well first, the import cost exposure for S&P 500 industries is more limited given the deferrals and exemptions still in place like the USMCA compliant imports from Mexico. Second, the higher tariff rates recently announced on several trading partners are generally not perceived to be the final rates as negotiations progress. I continue to believe these tariffs will ultimately end up looking like a 10 percent consumption tax on imports that generate significant revenue for the Treasury. And finally, many companies pre-stocked inventory before the tariffs were levied and so the higher priced goods have not yet flowed through the cost of goods sold. Furthermore, with the market's tariffs concerns having peaked in early April, the market is looking forward and focused on the data it can measure. On that score, the dramatic v-shaped rebound in earnings revisions breadth for the S&P 500 has been a fundamental tailwind that justifies the equity rally since April in the face of continued trade and macro uncertainty. This gauge is one of our favorites for predicting equity prices and it troughed at -25 percent in mid-April. It's now at +3 percent. The sectors with the most positive earnings revisions breadth relative to the S&P 500 are Financials, Industrials and Software — three sectors we continue to recommend due to this dynamic. The other more recent development helping to support equities is the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. While this Bill does not provide incremental fiscal spending to support the economy or lower the statutory tax rate, it does lower the cash earnings tax rates for companies that spend heavily on both R&D and Capital Goods.Our Global Tax Team believes we could see cash tax rates fall from 20 percent today back toward the 13 percent level that existed before some of these benefits from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that expired in 2022. This benefit is also likely to jump start what has been an anemic capital spending cycle for corporate America, which could drive both higher GDP and revenue growth for the companies that provide the type of equipment that falls under this category of spending. Meanwhile, the Foreign-Derived Intangible Income is a tax incentive that benefits U.S. companies earning income from foreign markets. It was designed to encourage companies to keep their intellectual property in the U.S. rather than moving it to countries with lower tax rates. This deduction was scheduled to decrease in 2026, which would have raised the effective tax rate by approximately 3 percent. That risk has been eliminated in the Big Beautiful Bill. Finally, the Digital Service Tax imposed on online companies that operate overseas may be reduced. Late last month, Canada announced that it would rescind its Digital Service Tax on the U.S. in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the U.S. This would be a major windfall for online companies and some see the potential for more countries, particularly in Europe, to follow Canada's lead as trade negotiations with the U.S. continue. Bottom line, while uncertainty around tariffs remains high, there are many other positive drivers for earnings growth over the next year that could more than offset any headwinds from these policies. This suggests the recent rally in stocks is justified and that investors may not be as complacent as some are fearing. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Cybersecurity giant, CrowdStrike (CRWD), got a downgrade from Morgan Stanley to equal weight. The firm sees a significant long-term story for the company but cites valuation concerns near-term. Jenny Horne talks about the firm's note and sky-high expectations for CrowdStrike's upcoming earnings. And it's not a trading week without headlines on Tesla (TSLA). Jenny mentions that Tesla shareholders will decide on whether the company supports an investment into xAI.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-...Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-...Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/19192...Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplu...Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-net...Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

CrowdStrike (CRWD) begins the week with a downgrade from Morgan Stanley. Rick Ducat examines the technical layout on the cybersecurity leader's chart. He points to bearish candle patterns in recent weeks and highlights resistance at $514. Later, Tom White illustrates a neutral to bullish options strategy using an example put vertical trade. He maps out a trade that expires in 18 days.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

After a couple years in a slump, the market for initial public offerings has been stronger this year. In this week's episode of WSJ's Take On the Week, host Telis Demos is joined by Arnaud Blanchard, global co-head of equity capital markets at Morgan Stanley, to discuss how recent IPO deals from companies like Chime and Voyager Technologies are giving the market a bump, where IPOs are expected to go in the second half of 2025 and if there is any chance of the market returning to its 2021 highs. Blanchard also shares what companies and sectors he thinks investors should pay the most attention to and whether he sees new offerings like “tokenized stocks” from brokerage upstart Robinhood as a threat to the IPO market.  This is WSJ's Take On the Week where co-hosts Gunjan Banerji, lead writer for Live Markets, and Telis Demos, Heard on the Street's banking and money columnist, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We'd love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com.  To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com  Further Reading  Wall Street Hangs On to Hopes for a Boom in Deals  Private Equity's IPO Exit Doors Expected to Open Wide in Second Half  Chime Financial Is the Latest IPO to Soar in Debut  Voyager Technologies Rises in Debut, Signaling Improving IPO Market  For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ's Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ's Live Markets blog.   Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Het wachten is voorbij! Het cijferseizoen gaat weer beginnen. Op de AEX kan je rekenen op de cijfers van ASML. En in de VS op die van Netflix. Maar volgens Nico Inberg van de Aandeelhouder is vooral de officiële aftrap interessant: de waslijst met Amerikaanse grootbanken die de boeken openen. In Beurs in Zicht stomen we je klaar voor de beursweek die je tegemoet gaat. Want soms zie je door de beursbomen het beursbos niet meer. Dat is verleden tijd! Iedere week vertelt een vriend van de show waar jouw focus moet liggen.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As U.S. retailers manage the impacts of increased tariffs, they have taken a number of approaches to avoid raising prices for customers. Our Head of Corporate Strategy Andrew Sheets and our Head of U.S. Consumer Retail and Credit Research Jenna Giannelli discuss whether they can continue to do so.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Jenna Giannelli: And I'm Jenna Giannelli, Head of U.S. Consumer and Retail Credit Research.Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, we're going to dig into one of the biggest conundrums in the market today. Where and when are tariffs going to show up in prices and margins? It's Friday, July 11th at 10am in New York. Jenna, it's great to catch up with you today because I think you can really bring some unique perspective into one of the biggest puzzles that we're facing in the market today. Even with all of these various pauses and delays, the U.S. has imposed historically large tariffs on imports. And we're seeing a rapid acceleration in the amount of money collected from those tariffs by U.S. customs. These are real hard dollars that importers – or somebody else – are paying. Yet we haven't seen these tariffs show up to a significant degree in official data on prices – with recent inflation data relatively modest. And overall stock and credit markets remain pretty strong and pretty resilient, suggesting less effect.So, are these tariffs just less impactful than expected, or is there something else going on here with timing and severity? And given your coverage of the consumer and retail sectors, which is really at the center of this tariff debate – what do you think is going on?Jenna Giannelli: So yes, this is a key question and one that is dominating a lot of our client conversations. At a high level, I'd point to a few things. First, there's a timing issue here. So, when tariffs were first announced, retailers were already sitting on three to four months worth of inventory, just due to natural industry lead times. And they were able to draw down on this product.This is mostly what they sold in 1Q and likely into 2Q, which is why you haven't seen much margin or pricing impact thus far. Companies – we also saw them start to stock up heavily on inventory before the tariffs and at the lower pause rate tariffs, which is the product you referenced that we're seeing coming in now. This is really going to help mitigate margin pressure in the second quarter that you still have this lower cost inventory flowing through. On top of this timing consideration, retailers – we've just seen utilizing a range of mitigation measures, right? So, whether it's canceled or pause shipments from China, a shifting production mix or sourcing exposure in the short run, particularly before the pause rate on China. And then really leaning into just whether it's product mix shifts, cost savings elsewhere in the PNL, and vendor negotiations, right? They're really leaning into everything in their toolbox that they can. Pricing too has been talked about as something that is an option, but the option of last resort. We have heard it will be utilized, but very tactically and very surgically, as we think about the back half of the year. When you put this all together, how much impact is it having? On average from retailers that we heard from in the first quarter, they thought they would be able to mitigate about half of the expected tariff headwind, which is actually a bit better than we were expecting. Finally, I'll just comment on your comment regarding market performance. While you're right in that the overall equity and credit markets have held up well, year-to-date, retail equities and credit have fared worse than their respective indices. What's interesting, actually, is that credit though has significantly outperformed retail equities, which is a relationship we think should converge or correct as we move throughout the balance of the year.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, retailers saw this coming. They've been pulling various levers to mitigate the impact. You mentioned kind of the last lever that they want to pull is prices, raising prices, which is the macro thing that we care about. The thing that would actually show up in inflation. How close are we though to kind of running out of other options for these guys? That is, the only thing left is they can start raising prices?Jenna Giannelli: So closer is what I would say. We're likely not going to see a huge impact in 2Q, more likely as we head into 3Q and more heavily into the all-important fourth quarter holiday season. This is really when those higher cost goods are going to be flowing through the PNL and retailers need to offset this as they've utilized a lot of their other mitigation strategies. They've moved what they could move. They've negotiated where they could, they've cut where they could cut. And again, as this last step, it will be to try and raise price.So, who's going to have the most and least success? In our universe, we think it's going to be more difficult to pass along price in some of the more historically deflationary categories like apparel and footwear. Outside of what is a really strong brand presence, which in our universe, historically hasn't been the case.Also, in some of the higher ticket or more durable goods categories like home goods, sporting goods, furniture, we think it'll be challenging as well here to pass along higher costs. Where it's going to be less of an issue is in our Staples universe, where what we'd put is less discretionary categories like Beauty, Personal Care, which is part of the reason why we've been cautious on retail, and neutral and consumer products when we think about sector allocation.Andrew Sheets: And when do you think this will show up? Is it a third quarter story? A fourth quarter story?Jenna Giannelli: I think this is going to really start to show up in the third quarter, and more heavily into the fourth quarter, the all-important holiday season.Andrew Sheets: Yeah, and I think that's what's really interesting about the impact of this backup to the macro. Again, returning to the big picture is I think one of the most important calls that Morgan Stanley economists have is that inflation, which has been coming down somewhat so far this year is going to pick back up in August and September and October. And because it's going to pick back up, the Federal Reserve is not going to cut interest rates anymore this year because of that inflation dynamic. So, this is a big debate in the market. Many investors disagree. But I think what you're talking about in terms of there are some very understandable reasons, maybe why prices haven't changed so far. But that those price hikes could be coming have real macroeconomic implications.So, you know, maybe though, something to just close on – is to bring this to the latest headlines. You know, we're now back it seems, in a market where every day we log onto our screens, and we see a new headline of some new tariff being announced or suggested towards countries. Where do you think those announcements, so far are relative to what retailers are expecting – kind of what you think is in guidance?Jenna Giannelli: Sure. So, look what we've seen of late; the recent tariff headlines are certainly higher or worse, I think, than what investors in management teams were expecting. For Vietnam, less so; I'd say it was more in line. But for most elsewhere, in Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, the rates that are set to go in effect on August 1st, as we now understand them, are higher or worse than management teams were expecting. Recall that while guidance did show up in many flavors in the first quarter, so whether withdrawn guidance or lowered guidance. For those that did factor in tariffs to their guide, most were factoring in either pause rate tariffs or tariff rates that were at least lower than what was proposed on Liberation Day, right? So, what's the punchline here? I think despite some of the revisions we've already seen, there are more to come. To put some numbers around this, if we look at our group of retail consumer cohort, credits, consensus expectations for calling for EBITDA in our universe to be down around 5 percent year-over-year. If we apply tariff rates as we know them today for a half-year headwind starting August 1st, this number should be down around 15 percent year-over-year on a gross basis…Andrew Sheets: So, three times as much.Jenna Giannelli: Pretty significant. Exactly. And so, while there might be mitigation efforts, there might be some pricing passed along, this is still a pretty significant delta between where consensus is right now and what we know tariff rates to be today – could imply for earnings in the second half.Andrew Sheets: Jenna, thanks for taking the time to talk.Jenna Giannelli: My pleasure. Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts to the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

This week on Breaking Battlegrounds, Chuck and Sam are joined by Tyler Pager, White House correspondent for The New York Times and co-author of 2024: How Trump Retook the White House and the Democrats Lost America. Pager offers a rare look inside both campaigns, including Trump's disciplined strategy, the behind-the-scenes fallout after Biden's exit, and even how a Diet Mountain Dew factored into the VP decision. Later, financial expert Gary Gigi explains what Social Security's future means for your wallet, and Hollywood insider Chris Fenton discusses rebuilding American manufacturing and the high cost of canceling conversations across party lines. Don't miss this week's episode!www.breakingbattlegrounds.voteTwitter: www.twitter.com/Breaking_BattleFacebook: www.facebook.com/breakingbattlegroundsInstagram: www.instagram.com/breakingbattlegroundsLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/breakingbattlegroundsTruth Social: https://truthsocial.com/@breakingbattlegroundsShow sponsors:Invest Yrefy - investyrefy.comOld Glory DepotSupport American jobs while standing up for your values. OldGloryDepot.com brings you conservative pride on premium, made-in-USA gear. Don't settle—wear your patriotism proudly.Learn more at: OldGloryDepot.comDot VoteWith a .VOTE website, you ensure your political campaign stands out among the competition while simplifying how you reach voters.Learn more at: dotvote.vote4Freedom MobileExperience true freedom with 4Freedom Mobile, the exclusive provider offering nationwide coverage on all three major US networks (Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile) with just one SIM card. Our service not only connects you but also shields you from data collection by network operators, social media platforms, government agencies, and more.Use code ‘Battleground' to get your first month for $9 and save $10 a month every month after.Learn more at: 4FreedomMobile.comAbout our guest:Tyler Pager is a White House correspondent at The New York Times. He previously covered the White House at The Washington Post, where he won the 2022 Gerald R. Ford Journalism Prize for Distinguished Reporting on the Presidency. He graduated as the valedictorian from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University, and with distinction from the University of Oxford, where he earned a master's degree in comparative social policy. He lives in Washington, D.C.-Mr. Gary Gygi was hired by the Investment firm Dean Witter (became Morgan Stanley) after college and worked for the firm for about 15 years. During this time he achieved the position of First Vice President, Investment and branch manager of the Midvale, Utah office. Mr. Gygi won numerous sales awards and held the position of Branch Managed Money Coordinator and Branch Insurance Coordinator. Mr. Gygi left Morgan Stanley in 2003 to join the Investment management firm of Smoot Miller Cheney (later became SMC Capital) as a Senior Vice President. Mr. Gygi holds a dual registration so while affiliating with Smoot Miller Cheney; he also was a registered rep with Independent broker/dealer WBB Securities, LLC. In 2008, Mr. Gygi left SMC Capital to found Gygi Capital Management as President and CEO. Gygi Capital serves the Institutional and individual marketplace with investment management solutions. Gygi Capital is a State regulated Registered Investment Advisory firm located in Cedar Hills, Utah. Gygi affiliates with Union Capital Co. which is an independent broker/dealer firm.-Company Founder, Chris Fenton, served as GM of DMG North America & President of DMG Entertainment Motion Picture Group, internationally orchestrating the creative, investment, and business activities of a multi-billion-dollar global media company headquartered in Beijing. During his tenure he served on the board of Valiant Entertainment, directing its eventual acquisition, and he worked closely with both Marvel and Hasbro, executing various projects to monetize their IP globally. As an author, Fenton chronicled much of his time at DMG in FEEDING THE DRAGON: Inside the Trillion Dollar Dilemma Facing Hollywood, the NBA, & American Business (Simon & Schuster).Most recently, and after three years of serving as President and CEO of Media Capital Technologies (MCT), a specialty finance company focused on strategic investments in premium content, Fenton stepped down to focus on formally advising companies, investors, brands, and Congress on how to best navigate sector disruptions and optimize America's complicated relationship with China and other challenging markets...AND HE LOVES IT!!! Follow him on X @TheDragonFeeder. Get full access to Breaking Battlegrounds at breakingbattlegrounds.substack.com/subscribe

Levi Strauss (LEVI) didn't just beat earnings, but also raised guidance, which Diane King Hall largely attributes to the stock's rally this morning. She talks about the business decisions from leadership that helped Levi win for the quarter. Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Piper Sandler all raised prices target for Amazon (AMZN) with bullish expectations of a friendlier ecommerce environment. Diane also tunes investors into price target hikes for Spotify (SPOT).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-...Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-...Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/19192...Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplu...Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-net...Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The ultimate market outcomes of President Trump's tactical tariff escalation may be months away. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas takes a look at implications for investors now.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today: The latest on U.S. tariffs and their market impact. It's Thursday, July 10th at 12:30pm in New York. It's been a newsy week for U.S. trade policy, with tariff increases announced across many nations. Here's what we think investors need to know. First, we think the U.S. is in a period of tactical escalation for tariff policy; where tariffs rise as the U.S. explores its negotiating space, but levels remain in a range below what many investors feared earlier this year. We started this week expecting a slight increase in U.S. tariffs—nothing too dramatic, maybe from 13 percent to around 15 percent driven by hikes in places like Vietnam and Japan. But what we got was a bit more substantial. The U.S. announced several tariff hikes, set to take effect later, allowing time for negotiations. If these new measures go through, tariffs could reach 15 to 20 percent, significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, though far below the 25 to 30 percent levels that appeared possible back in April. It's a good reminder that U.S. trade policy remains a moving target because the U.S. administration is still focused on reducing goods trade deficits and may not yet perceive there to be substantial political and economic risk of tariff escalation. Per our economists' recent work on the lagged effects of tariffs, this reckoning could be months away. Second, the implications of this tactical escalation are consistent with our current cross-asset views. The higher tariffs announced on a variety of geographies, and products like copper, put further pressure on the U.S. growth story, even if they don't tip the U.S. into recession, per the work done by our economists. That growth pressure is consistent with our views that both government and corporate bond yields will move lower, driving solid returns. It's also insufficient pressure to get in the way of an equity market rally, in the view of our U.S. equity strategy team. The fiscal package that just passed Congress might not be a major boon to the economy overall, but it does help margins for large cap companies, who by the way are more exposed to tariffs through China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU – rather than the countries on whom tariff increases were announced this week. Finally, How could we be wrong? Well, pay attention to negotiations with those geographies we just mentioned: Mexico, Canada, Europe, and China. These are much bigger trading partners not just for U.S. companies, but the U.S. overall. So meaningful escalation here can drive both top line and bottom line effects that could challenge equities and credit. In our view, tariffs with these partners are likely to land near current levels, but the path to get there could be volatile. For the U.S., Mexico and Canada, background reporting suggests there's mutual interest in maintaining a low tariff bloc, including exceptions for the product-specific tariffs that the U.S. is imposing. But there are sticking points around harmonizing trade policy. The dynamic is similar with China. Tariffs are already steep—among the highest anywhere. While a recent narrow deal—around semiconductors for rare earths—led to a temporary reduction from triple-digit levels, the two sides remain far apart on fundamental issues. So when it comes to negotiations with the U.S.' biggest trading partners, there's sticking points. And where there's sticking points there's potential for escalation that we'll need to be vigilant in monitoring. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market please leave us a review. And tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses whether demand for U.S. stocks has fallen and where fund flows are surging. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist.Today – is the demand for U.S. assets declining? Let's look at the recent trends in global investment flows.It's Wednesday, July 9th at 1pm in New York.The U.S. equity market has reached an all-time high, but at the same time lingering uncertainty about U.S. trade and tariff policies is forcing global investors to consider the riskiness of U.S. assets. And so the big question we need to ask is: are investors – particularly foreign investors – fleeing U.S. assets?This question comes from recent data around fund flows to global equities. And we have to acknowledge that demand for U.S. stocks overall has declined, going by high-frequency data. But at the same time, we think this idea is exaggerated. So why is that? As many listeners know, fund flows – which represent the net movement of money into and out of various investment vehicles like mutual funds and ETFs – are an important gauge of investor sentiment and market trends. So what are fund flows really telling us about investors' sentiment towards U.S. equities? It would be nice to get an unequivocal answer, but of course, the devil is always in the details. And the problem is that different data sources and frequencies across different market segments don't always lead to the same conclusions. Weekly data across global equity ETF and mutual funds from Lipper show that international investors were net buyers through most of April and May. But the pace of buying has slowed year-to-date versus 2024. Still, it remains much higher than during the same period in 2021 through 2023. Treasury TIC data point to something similar – a slowdown in foreign demand, but not significant net selling. So where are the flows going, if not to the U.S.? They are going to the rest of the world, but more particularly, Europe. Europe stocks, in fact, have been the biggest beneficiary of decreasing flows to the U.S. Nearly $37 billion U.S. has gone into Europe-focused equity funds year-to-date. This is significantly higher than the run-rates over the prior five years. What's more notable here is that year-to-date, flows to European-focused ETFs and mutual funds dominated those targeting Japan and Emerging Markets. This suggests that Europe is now the premier destination for equity fund flows, with very little demand spillovers to other regions' equity markets.These shifts have yet to show up in the allocation data, which tracks how global asset managers invest in stocks regionally. Global equity funds' portfolio weights to Rest-of-the-World has gone up by roughly the same amount as allocation to the U.S. has come down. But allocation to the U.S. has actually gone down by roughly the same amount, as its share in global equity indices; which means that If allocation to the U.S. has changed, it's simply because the U.S. is now a smaller part of equity indices. Meanwhile, an estimated U.S.$9 billion from Rest-of-the World went into international equity funds, which excludes U.S. stocks altogether. Granted, it's not a lot; but scaled for fund assets, it's the highest net flows international equities have seen. In other words, some investors are choosing to invest in equities excluding U.S. altogether. These trends are unlikely to reverse as long as lingering policy uncertainty dampens demand for U.S.-based assets. But as we've argued in our mid-year outlook, there are very few alternative markets to the U.S. dollar markets right now. U.S. stocks might start to see less marginal flows from foreign investors – to the benefit of Rest-of-the-World equities, especially Europe. But demand is unlikely to dry up completely over the next 12 months. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Arushi Agarwal from the European Sustainability Strategy team and Aerospace & Defense Analyst Ross Law unpack what a reshaped defense industry means for sustainability, ethics and long-term investment strategy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ross Law: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ross Law from Morgan Stanley's European Aerospace and Defense team.Arushi Agarwal: And I'm Arushi Agarwal from the European Sustainability Research Team.Ross Law: Today, a topic that's rapidly defining the boundaries of sustainable investing and technological leadership – the use of AI in defense.It's Tuesday, July 8th at 3pm in London. At the recent NATO summit, member countries decided to boost their core defense spending target from 2 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP. This big jump is sure to spark a wave of innovation in defense, particularly in AI and military technology. It's clear that Europe is focusing on rearmament with AI playing a major role. In fact, AI is revolutionizing everything from unmanned systems and cyber defense to simulation training and precision targeting. It's changing the game for how nations prepare for – and engage in – conflict. And with all these changes come serious challenges. Investors, policy makers and technologists are facing some tough questions that sit at the intersection of two of Morgan Stanley's four key themes: The Multipolar World and Tech Diffusion.So, Arushi, to set the stage, how is the concept of sustainability evolving to include national security and defense, particularly in Europe?Arushi Agarwal: You know, Ross, it's fascinating to see how much this space has evolved over the past year. Geopolitical tensions have really pushed national security much higher on the sustainability agenda. We're seeing a structural shift in sentiment towards defense investments. While historically defense companies were largely excluded by sustainability funds, we're now seeing asset managers revisiting these exclusions, especially around conventional and nuclear weapons. Some are even launching thematic funds, specifically focused on security and resilience.However, in the absence of standard methodologies to assess weapon related exposures, evaluate sector-specific ESG risks and determine transparency, there is no clear consensus on what sustainability focused managers can hold. Greater policy focus has created the need to identify a long-term approach to investing in this sector, one that is cognizant of ethical issues. Investors are now increasingly asking whether rapid technological integration might allow for a more forward-looking, risk aware approach to investing in national security.Ross Law: So, it's no news that Europe has historically underspent on defense. Now, the spending goal is moving to 3.5 percent of GDP to try and catch up. Our estimates suggest this could mean an additional $200 billion per year in additional spend – with a focus on equipment over personnel, at least for the time being. With this new focus, how is AI shaping the European rearmament strategy?Arushi Agarwal: Well, AI appears to be at the core of EU's 800 billion euro rearmament plan. The commission has been quite clear that escalating tensions have not only led to a new arms race but also provoked a global technological race. Now to think about it, AI, quantum, biotech, robotics, and hypersonic are key inputs not only for long-term economic growth, but also for military pre-eminence.In our base case, we estimate that total NATO military spend into AI applications will potentially more than double to $112 billion by 2030. This is at a 4 percent AI investment allocation rate. If this allocation rate increases to 10 percent as anticipated by European deep tech firms, then NATOs AI military spend could grow sixfold to $306 billion by 2030 in our bull case.So, Ross, you were at the Paris Air Show recently where companies demonstrated their latest product capabilities. Which AI applications are leading the way in defense right now? Ross Law: Yeah, it was really quite eye-opening. We've identified nine key AI applications, reshaping defense, and our Application Readiness Radar shows that Cybersecurity followed by Unmanned Systems exhibit the highest level of preparedness from a public and private investment perspective.Cybersecurity is a major priority due to increased proliferation of cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns, and this technology can be used for both defensive and offensive measures. Unmanned systems are also really taking off, no pun intended, mainly driven by the rise in drone warfare that's reshaping the battlefield in Ukraine.At the Paris Airshow, we saw demonstrations of “Wingman” crewed and uncrewed aircraft. There have also been several public and private partnerships in this area within our coverage. Another area gaining traction is simulation and war gaming. As defense spending increases and potentially leads to more military personnel, we see this theme in high demand in the coming years.Arushi Agarwal: And how are European Aerospace and Defense companies positioning themselves in terms of AI readiness?Ross Law: Well, they're really making significant advancements. We've assessed AI technology readiness for our A&D companies across six different verticals: the number of applications; dual-use capabilities; AI pricing power; responsible AI policy; and partnerships on both external and internal product categories.What's really interesting is that European A&D companies have higher pricing power relative to the U.S. counterparts, and a higher percentage are both enablers and adopters of AI. To accelerate AI integration, these companies are increasingly partnering with government research arms, leading software firms, as well as peers and private players.Arushi Agarwal: And some of these same technologies can also be used for civilian purposes. Could you share some examples with us?Ross Law: The dual use potential is really significant. Various companies in our coverage are using their AI capabilities for civilian applications across multiple domains. For example, geospatial capabilities can also be used for wildfire management and tracking deforestation. Machine learning can be used for maritime shipping and port surveillance. But switching gears slightly, if we talk about the regulatory developments that are emerging in Europe to address defense modernization, what does this mean, Arushi, for society, the industry and investors?Arushi Agarwal: There's quite a lot happening on the regulatory front. The European Commission is working on a defense omnibus simplification proposal aimed at speeding up defense investments in the EU. It's planning to publish a guidance notice on how defense investment will fit within the sustainable finance framework. It's also making changes to its sustainability reporting directive. If warranted, the commission will make additional adjustments to reflect the needs of the defense industry in its sustainability reporting obligations. The Sustainable Fund Reform is another important development. While the sustainability fund regulation doesn't prohibit investment into the defense sector, the commission is seeking to provide clarification on how defense investment goals sit within a sustainability framework.Additionally at the European Security Summit in June, the European Defense Commissioner indicated that a roadmap focusing on the modernization of European defense will be published in autumn. This will have a special focus on AI and quantum technologies. For investors, whilst exclusions easing has started to take place, pickup in individual positioning has been slow. As investors ramp up on the sector, we believe these regulatory developments can serve as catalysts, providing clear demand and trend signals for the sector.Ross Law: So finally, in this context, how can companies and investors navigate these ethical considerations responsibly?Arushi Agarwal: So, in the note we highlight that AI risk management requires the ability to tackle two types of challenges. First, technical challenges, which can be mitigated by embedding boundaries and success criteria directly into the design of the AI model. For example, training AI systems to refuse harmful requests. Second challenges are more open-ended and ambiguous set of challenges that relate to coordinating non-proliferation among countries and preventing misuse by bad actors. This set of challenges requires continuous interstate dialogue and cooperation rather than purely technical fixes.From an investor perspective, closer corporate engagement will be key to navigating these debates. Ensuring firms have clear documentation of their algorithms and decision-making processes, human in the loop systems, transparency around data sets used to train the AI models are some of the engagement points we mention in our note.Ultimately, I think the key is balance. On the one hand, we have to recognize the legitimate security needs that defense technologies address. And on the other hand, there's the need to ensure appropriate safeguards and oversight.Ross Law: Arushi, thanks for taking the time to talk.Arushi Agarwal: It was great speaking with you, Ross,Ross Law: And thank you all for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The American consumer isn't simply pulling back. They are changing the way they spend – and save. Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver digs into the data. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, the U.S. consumer. What's changing about the ways Americans spend, save and feel about the future?It's Monday, July 7th at 10am in London.As markets digest mixed signals – whether that's easing inflation, changing politics, and persistent noise around tariffs – U.S. consumers are recalibrating. Under the surface of headline numbers, a more complex story is unfolding about the ways Americans are not just reacting but adapting to macro challenges.First, I want to start with a big picture. Data from our latest consumer survey shows that consumer sentiment has stabilized, even as uncertainty around tariffs persists, especially into these rolling July deadlines. Inflation remains the top concern for most. But the good news is that it's trending lower. This month more than half of respondents cited inflation as their primary concern, a slight decrease from last month and a year ago. Now, that's a subtle but a meaningful decline suggesting consumers may be adjusting their expectations rather than bracing for continued price shocks. At the same time though political concerns are on the rise. More than 40 percent of consumers now list the U.S. political environment as a major worry. That's slightly up from last month; and not surprisingly concern around geopolitical conflicts has also jumped from a month ago.Now, when we break this down by income levels, we see some interesting trends. Inflation is the top concern across all income groups, except for those earning more than $150,000. For them, politics takes the top spot. Lower income households, though, are more focused on paying rent and debts, while higher income groups are more concerned about their investments.As for tariffs, concern remains high but stable. About 40 percent of consumers are very worried about tariffs and another 25 percent are moderately so. But if we look under the surface, it's really showing us a political divide. 63 percent of liberals are very concerned, compared to just 23 percent of conservatives who say they're very concerned.Despite these worries, though, fewer people overall are planning to cut back on spending. Only about a third say they'll spend less due to tariffs, which is down quite a bit from earlier this year. Meanwhile, about a quarter plan to spend more, and roughly a third don't expect to change their plans at all.This resilience points to the notable behavioral trend I mentioned at the start. Consumers are not just reacting, they're adapting. Looking at the broader economy, consumer confidence is holding steady according to our survey, although it's slightly down from last month. But when it comes to household finances, the outlook is more positive with a significant number expecting their finances to improve and fewer expecting them to worsen – a net positive.Savings are also showing some resilience. The average consumer has several months of savings, slightly up from last year. Spending intentions are stable with nearly a third of consumers planning to spend more next month while fewer planned to spend less. And when it comes to big ticket items, more than half of U.S. consumers are planning a major purchase in the next three months, including vehicles, appliances, and vacations.Speaking of vacations, summer travel season is here and I'm looking forward to taking a trip soon. Around 60 percent of consumers are planning to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the top reason.So, what's the biggest takeaway for investors?Despite ongoing concerns about inflation, politics and tariffs, U.S. consumers are showing remarkable resilience. It's a nuanced picture, but one that overall suggests stability in the face of uncertainty.Thanks for listening. I hope you enjoyed the show, and if you did, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Send us a textHe left Morgan Stanley to build not one, but two startups in energy… here's why.

In this episode, Jeff sits down with Eileen Stoner, a seasoned financial advisor and principal of The Stoner Group at Morgan Stanley, to explore her unique journey from neonatal nursing to guiding clients through retirement and divorce financial planning. Eileen brings 28 years of experience in wealth management and a deep passion for helping individuals—especially women—gain confidence and clarity around their finances.From the emotional complexities of retirement to the financial realities of divorce, Eileen shares practical advice, real-life insights, and empowering encouragement for listeners at every stage of life. She also opens up about her community involvement through DivorceCare, Second Saturday workshops, and local advisory boards.Whether you're planning for retirement, navigating a life transition, or simply seeking more confidence with your finances, this episode offers invaluable insights you don't want to miss.The Stoner Group | Morgan Stanley17505 W Catawba Ave Ste 300Cornelius, NC 28031(704) 896-9138Special thanks to:Sarah Bennett - Sodoma Law NorthSpecial mentions:Divorce Care GroupSecond Saturday Divorce WorkshopsWinshape Camps---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Lake Norman's #1 Podcast & Email NewsletterThe Best of LKNhttps://thebestoflkn.com/Hosted by:Jeff HammElevate Land & RealtyCharlotte | Lake Norman | High Countryhttps://lknreal.com/Support the show

Show Notes: Lawrence Steyn moved to Los Angeles to work with Walt Disney, where he helped think through financing new theme parks and movies. After leaving Disney, he went into traditional investment banking. He also mentions that he was a character in a theme park training program, where he was a penguin in full costume. His experience in LA and his role as a character in the training program were both memorable and challenging, and being a penguin was the hardest job he had in the 30+ years since graduating.  From Investment Banking to the Tech Industry Lawrence moved to New York and worked at Goldman, including spending several years in London. He worked at Morgan Stanley and also as vice chairman at  JP Morgan. After COVID-19, he faced a midlife crisis and decided to work at an autonomous vehicle company called Pony.ai. The company was Chinese-centric and had a large nexus with China. This was around 2020/21 during a time when relations between the U.S. and China were strained. The company faced financial and geopolitical challenges from China, who wanted to assert control over its tech sector, and restrictions from the US. Lawrence talks about an event that took place in the U.S. that allowed a government body to exert their control and limit the company. However, Lawrence started lobbying for Pony's cause, visiting Capitol Hill and California representatives,  however it became clear that Pony was never going to go public as an American-centric company.  Joining a Manufacturing-centric P.E. Firm As his time at Pony was coming to an end, a private equity firm, American Industrial Partners, approached Lawrence to join them. Lawrence discusses the changing business world, government issues, and supply chain changes post-COVID. As an American manufacturing-centric private equity firm, he observes the shrinking of supply chains and the refocus on American hard enterprise, but he compares this with his experience at Pony, as a $6-7 billion company started by seven guys in a garage, compared to the cost of manufacturing enterprises. Lawrence enjoys his work and the opportunity to create billions of dollars of value through low capital and high-IQ work. Lawrence also shares his experience with venture capital tech. A Superpower and Brokering a Big Deal Lawrence believes that his superpower is listening to people's words and being thoughtful, especially when dealing with potential clients. He emphasizes being creative and challenging himself to think of unexpected twists in situations. He shares an example from his time at Morgan Stanley,  and the most successful deal of his career. He was the sole advisor to United Technologies, which was the biggest industrial deal up to that date. The unique idea was that United Technologies wanted to buy Rockwell Collins. Lawrence talks about the idea he put forward that allowed United Technologies to keep the Rockwell Collins name and maintain its rich heritage, while United Technologies owned about 60% of the company. The deal was a complex and unique one, with high effort and structuring involved.  Global Trade Wars and Tariffs The conversation revolves around the ongoing global trade wars, particularly the tariffs. Lawrence states that while the uncertainty has slowed everything down, however, the outcome has not been terrible. The market has returned to close to all-time highs. Lawrence mentions that the long-term impact of these tariffs is questionable, as the reduction in the dollar's role as a global reserve currency is problematic. He also discusses the importance of having a strong US global leadership role and the need for a good manufacturing base. He mentions that the lack of access to various materials has proven problematic, and that the US should focus on American manufacturing capabilities. However, he also mentions that American Industrial Partners have been investing in American manufacturing capabilities for decades, and their history and majority of businesses are America-centric. A Global Trade Slow Down The Trump administration's focus on tariffs has slowed down global trade, with the US and Mexico experiencing increased tensions. The US has been focusing on geopolitical issues, such as China and Mexico, but the long-term impact of these tariffs is uncertain. The US has been investing in American manufacturing capabilities for decades, and many businesses have found that having an American manufacturing base is more valuable to people around the world. The uncertainty surrounding the introduction of tariffs has led to negotiations and investment being put on hold, as the US has good manufacturing capabilities in Mexico. The short-term impacts of these tariffs have been less dramatic, and the long-term impacts are more theoretical at this point. However, the US has managed to maintain its manufacturing base and maintain its global leadership role. Barriers to Growth in Manufacturing The conversation turns to barriers to the growth of the manufacturing industry in America, including electricity, skilled labor, zoning, local supply chain, permits, and environmental reviews etc. Lawrence highlights the importance of re-electrifying America, which is a complex process that takes time and requires skilled and unskilled labor. The supply chain, as seen with Apple's desire to manufacture in the US. The biggest challenge for manufacturers is the uncertainty of tariffs and their impact on the US manufacturing industry. If there were a sustainable and constructive policy in place for decades, manufacturers would be more comfortable investing in advanced manufacturing capabilities. However, the whimsy of these policies can be problematic, as they may be reversed or ended by lawsuits, hinders planning and investment. An Effective Pro-US Manufacturing Policy A more effective pro-US manufacturing policy with bipartisan support could be beneficial. Some goals that could be valuable include bringing manufacturing back to the US for data centers, shipbuilding, and auto manufacturing. However, the broad concept of remanufacturing in the US doesn't necessarily mean achieving everything at once. A thoughtful policy with bipartisan support could be powerful, but a more consistent, specific, targeted policy with broad support could be more effective. Influential Harvard Courses and Professors Lawrence mentions a Michael Sandel's core class, Justice, that focuses on different theories of justice, which he believes are important for thinking thoughtfully about political and global events. He also enjoyed a seminar with Marjorie Garber on Shakespeare, which he took as a core class and then revisited as an alumni for a deep dive. He also mentions activities centered around the International Relations Council, Model UN, and American Industrial Partners.  Timestamps: 04:16: Experiences at Pony.ai and Autonomous Vehicles  09:36: Transition to American Industrial Partners  23:35: Challenges in American Manufacturing  37:17: Personal Reflections and Future Plans 40:58: Backgammon and Personal Interests  43:35: Harvard Memories and Influences 48:05: Connecting with the Harvard Community  Links: Website: https://americanindustrial.com/team/lawrence-steyn/ Featured Non-profit: The featured non-profit of this week's episode is Lighthouse Youth and Family Services in Cincinnati, Ohio recommended by John Unger who reports:  “Hello, class of 1992 this is your classmate, John Unger of Kirkland House in Weld North. I'm submitting to you the featured nonprofit for this week's episode of The 92 Report, Lighthouse Youth and Family Services in Cincinnati, Ohio. Lighthouse is a wonderful and impactful organization that gives guidance and support to orphans and foster care children in our city, and my mom has been a heavily involved volunteer for decades. You can learn about Lighthouse Youth Services at its website, lys.org Thank you for your consideration. Now here's Will with this week's episode”. To learn more about their work, visit: LYS.org.

Two-time Emmy and Three-time NAACP Image Award-winning, television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed Sonia Fears. First Vice President and Financial Advisor at Morgan Stanley. She leads The Fears Group, a wealth management team specializing in alternative investments, retirement planning, and financial education.

For a special Independence Day episode, our Head of Corporate Credit Research considers a popular topic of debate, on holidays or otherwise – national debt.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today on a special Independence Day episode of the podcast, we're going to talk a bit about the history of U.S. debt and the contrast between corporate and federal debt trajectories.It's Thursday, July 3rd at 9am in Seattle.The 4th of July, which represents the U.S. declaring independence from Great Britain, remains one of my favorite holidays. A time to gather with friends and family and celebrate what America is – and what it can still be.It is also, of course, a good excuse to talk about debt.Declaring independence is one thing, but fighting and beating the largest empire in the world at the time would take more than poetic words. The borrowing that made victory possible for the colonies also almost brought them down in the 1780s under a pile of unsustainable debt. It was a young treasury secretary Alexander Hamilton, who successfully lobbied to bring these debts under a federal umbrella – binding the nation together and securing a lower borrowing cost. As we'd say, it's a real fixed income win-win.Almost 250 years later, the benefits of that foresight are still going strong, with the United States of America enjoying the world's largest economy, and the largest and most liquid equity and bond markets. Yet lately there's been more focus on whether those bond markets are, well, too large.The U.S. currently runs a budget deficit of about 7 percent of GDP, and the current budget proposals in the house and the Senate could drive an additional 4 trillion of borrowing over the next decade above that already hefty baseline. Forecast even further out, well, they look even more challenging.We are not worried about the U.S. government's ability to pay its bills. And to be clear, in the near term, we are forecasting at Morgan Stanley, U.S. government yields to go down as growth slows and the Federal Reserve cuts rates more than expected in 2026. But all of this borrowing and all the uncertainty around it – it should increase risk premiums for longer term bonds and drive a steeper yield curve.So, it's notable then – as we celebrate America's birthday and discuss its borrowing – that it's really companies that are currently unwrapping the presents. Corporate balance sheets, in contrast, are in very good shape, as corporate borrowing trends have diverged from those of the government.Many factors are behind this. Corporate profitability is strong. Companies use the post-COVID period to refinance debt at attractive rates. And the ongoing uncertainty – well, it's kept management more conservative than they would otherwise be. Out of deference to the 4th of July, I've focused so far on the United States. But we see the same trend in Europe, where more conservative balance sheet trends and less relative issuance to governments is showing up on a year-over-year basis. With companies borrowing relatively less and governments borrowing relatively more, the difference between what companies and the government pay, that so-called spread that we talk so much about – well, we think it can stay lower and more compressed than it otherwise would.We don't think this necessarily applies to the low ratings such as single B or lower borrowers, where these better balance sheet trends simply aren't as clear. But overall, a divergent trend between corporate and government balance sheets is giving corporate bond investors something additional to celebrate over the weekend.Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Our analysts Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore discuss the upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariffs and the potential impacts for U.S. trade.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, US Public Policy Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we're talking about the outlook for US trade policy. It's Wednesday, July 2nd at 10:00 AM in New York.We have a big week ahead as next Wednesday marks the expiration of the 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Ariana, what's the setup?Ariana Salvatore: So this is a really key inflection point. That pause that you mentioned was initiated back on April 9th, and unless it's extended, we could see a reposition of tariffs on several of our major trading partners. Our base case is that the administration, broadly speaking, tries to kick the can down the road, meaning that it extends the pause for most countries, though the reality might be closer to a few countries seeing their rates go up while others announce bilateral framework deals between now and next week.But before we get into the key assumptions underlying our base case. Let's talk about the bigger picture. Michael, what do we think the administration is actually trying to accomplish here?Michael Zezas: So when it comes to defining their objectives, we think multiple things can be true at the same time. So the administration's talked about the virtue of tariffs as a negotiating tactic. They've also floated the idea of a tiered framework for global trading partners. Think of it as a ranking system based on trade deficits, non tariff barriers, VAT levels, and any other characteristics that they think are important for the bilateral trade relationship. A lot of this is similar to the rhetoric we saw ahead of the April 2nd "Liberation Day" tariffs.Ariana Salvatore: Right, and around that time we started hearing about the potential, at least for bilateral trade deals, but have we seen any real progress in that area?Michael Zezas: Not much, at least not publicly, aside from the UK framework agreement. And here's an important detail, three of our four largest trading partners aren't even scoped for higher rates next week. Mexico and Canada were never subject to the reciprocal tariffs. And China's on a separate track with this Geneva framework that doesn't expire until August 12th. So we're not expecting a sweeping overhaul by Wednesday.Ariana Salvatore: Got it. So what are the scenarios that we're watching?Michael Zezas: So there's roughly three that we're looking at and let me break them down here.So our base case is that the administration extends the current pause, citing progress in bilateral talks, and maybe there's a few exceptions along the way in either direction, some higher and some lower. This broadly resets the countdown clock, but keeps the current tariff structure intact: 10% baseline for most trading partners, though some potentially higher if negotiations don't progress in the next week. That outcome would be most in line, we think, with the current messaging coming out of the administration.There's also a more aggressive path if there's no visible progress. For example, the administration could reimpose tariffs with staggered implementation dates. The EU might face a tougher stance due to the complexity of that relationship and Vietnam could see delayed threats as a negotiating tactic. A strong macro backdrop, resilient data for markets that could all give the administration cover to go this route.But there's also a more constructive outcome. The administration can announce regional or bilateral frameworks, not necessarily full trade deals, but enough to remove the near term threat of higher tariffs, reducing uncertainty, though maybe not to pre-2024 levels.Ariana Salvatore: So wide bands of uncertainty, and it sounds like the more constructive outcome is quite similar to our base case, which is what we have in place right now. But translating that more aggressive path into what that means for the economy, we think it would reinforce our house view that the risks here are skewed to the downside.Our economists estimate that tariffs begin to impact inflation about four months after implementation with the growth effects lagging by about eight months. That sets us up for weak but not quite recessionary growth. We're talking 1% GDP on an annual basis in 2025 and 2026, and the tariff passed through to prices and inflation data probably starting in August.Michael Zezas: So bottom line, watch carefully on Wednesday and be vigilant for changes to the status quo on tariff levels. There's a lot of optionality in how this plays out, as trade policy uncertainty in the aggregate is still high. Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Michael.Michael Zezas: And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.