Podcasts about Morgan Stanley

Our Head of Corporate Research Andrew Sheets and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Lisa Shalett unpack what's fueling persistent U.S. inflation and how investors could adjust their portfolios to this new landscape.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Lisa Shalett: And I'm Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Andrew Sheets: Today, is inflation really transitory or are we entering a new era where higher prices are the norm? Andrew Sheets: It's Thursday, December 18th at 4pm in London. Lisa Shalett: And it's 11am in New York. Andrew Sheets: Lisa, it's great to talk to you again. And, you know, we're having this conversation in the aftermath of, kind of, an unusual dynamic in markets when it comes to inflation. Because inflation is still hovering around 3 percent. That's well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. And yet the Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates again. Fiscal policy remains very stimulative, and I think there's this real question around whether inflation will moderate? Or whether we're going to see inflation be higher for longer. And you know, you are out with a new report touching on some of the issues behind this and why this might be a structural shift higher in inflation. So, we'd love to get your thoughts on that, and we'll drill down into the various drivers as this conversation goes on. Lisa Shalett: Thanks Andrew. And look, I think as we take a step back, and the reason we're calling this a regime change is because we see factors for inflation coming from both the demand side and the supply side. For example, on the demand side, the role of the infrastructure boom, the GenAI infrastructure boom, has become global. It has caused material appreciation of many commodities in 2025. We're seeing it obviously in some of the dynamics around precious metals. But we're also seeing it in industrial metals. Things like copper, things like nickel. We're also seeing demand factors that may stem from the K-shaped economy. And the K-shaped economy, as we know, is really about this idea that the wealthiest folks are increasingly dominating consumption. And they are getting wealthy through financial asset inflation. On the supply side, there are dynamics like immigration, dynamics around the housing market that we can talk about. But perhaps the wrapper around all of it is how policy is shifting – because increasingly policymakers are being constrained by very high levels of debt and deficits. And determining how to fund those debts and deficits actually removes some of the degrees of freedom that central bankers may have when it comes to actually using interest rates to constrain demand. Andrew Sheets: Well, Lisa, this is such a great point because we're financial analysts. We're not political analysts. But it seems safe to say that voters really don't like inflation. But they also don't like some of the policies that would traditionally be assigned to fight inflation – be they higher interest rates or tighter fiscal policy. And even some of the more recent political shifts that we've seen – I'm talking about the U.S. around, say, immigration policy could arguably be further tightening of that supply side of the economy – measures designed to raise wages, almost explicitly in their policy goals. So how do you see that dynamic? And, again, kind of where does that leave, you think, policy going forward? Lisa Shalett: Yeah. I think the very short answer – our best guess is that policy becomes constrained. So, on the monetary side, we're already seeing the Fed beginning to signal that perhaps they're going to rely on other tools in the toolkit. And what are those tools in the toolkit? Well, they're managing the size of their balance sheet, managing the duration or the mix of things that they hold in the balance sheet. And it's actual, you know, returns to how they think about reserve management in the banking system. All of those things, all of those constraints may enable the U.S. government to fund debts, right? By buying the Treasury bill issuance, which is, you know, swollen to almost [$]2 trillion a year in terms of U.S. deficits. But on the fiscal side, right, the interest payments on debt, begins to crowd out other government spending. So, policy itself in this era of fiscal dominance becomes constrained – both in, you know, Washington, D.C. and from Congress – what they can do, their degrees of freedom – and what the central bank can do to actually control inflation. Andrew Sheets: Another area that you touch on in your report is energy and technology, which are obviously related with this large boom that we're seeing – and continue to expect in AI data center construction. This is a lot of spending on the technology. This is a lot of power needed to power that technology and U.S. data center electricity demand is growing at a rapid rate. And transmission constraints are causing prices to go up. A price that is a pretty visible price for a lot of people when they get their utility bill. So, how do these factors you think shape the story? And where do you think they're going to go as we look into the future? Lisa Shalett: Yeah, 100 percent. I mean, I think, you know, when we talk about, you know, who's going to dominate in Generative AI globally, one of the factors that we have to take into consideration is what is the cost of power? What is the cost of electricity? What is the age of the infrastructure to both generate that electricity and transport it? And transmit it? This is one of the areas where the U.S., at the minute, is facing genuine constraints. When you think about some of the forecasts that have been put out there in terms of $10 trillion of spending related to Generative AI, the number of data centers that are going to be built, and the power shortfall that has been forecast. We're talking about someone having to pay the price, if you will, to ration power until you can upgrade the grid. And in the U.S., that grid upgrade, to be blunt, has lagged some of the rest of the world. Not only because the rest of the world was slower to modernize and leapfrogged in many ways. But we know in China, for example, they have one of the lowest electricity generation costs on the planet. That is an advantage for them. So, we have to consider that power generation writ large is potentially a force for upward inflation, at least in the short term. Andrew Sheets: So we have the fiscal policy backdrop. We have an AI spending backdrop both contributing to the demand side of inflation. We have these supply constraints, whether it's housing or labor also, you know, potentially being more structural drivers of higher inflation. The question I'm sure that investors are asking you is, what should they do about it? So, can you walk us through the key strategies that investors might want to consider as they navigate a new inflationary regime? Lisa Shalett: Sure. So, the first thing that we think it's really important for folks to appreciate is that typically when we've been in these higher inflation regimes in the past, stocks and bonds become positively correlated. And what that means is that the power of a very simple 60-40 or stock-bond-cash portfolio to provide complete or optimal diversification fades. And it requires investors to potentially consider investing, especially beyond fixed income. Stocks very often are pro-inflationary assets; meaning many, many companies have the power to pass through price increases. If you are consuming income from a fixed income or a bond instrument, inflation is your enemy, right? Because it's eating into your real returns. And so, one of the things that we're talking with our clients a lot about in terms of portfolio construction are things like adding real assets, adding infrastructure assets, adding energy, transportation assets, adding commodities. Adding gold even, to a certain extent. You know, there may be cryptocurrencies that have lower correlations to their portfolios. Andrew Sheets: Just to play devil's advocate, you can imagine that some investors might say, ‘Well, I can look in the market at long-term inflation expectations.' And those long-term inflation expectations have been kind of stable and a bit above the Fed's target. But not dramatically. So, what do you say to that? And what do you think those markets either might be missing? Or how could investors leverage that more benign view that's out there in the market? Lisa Shalett: Yeah, so look, I think here's where the debate, right? Our perception has been that inflation expectations have remained extraordinarily anchored – because investors have actually reasonably short memories on the one hand, and we have, by and large, been in disinflationary times. Second, there's extraordinary faith in policy makers – that policy makers will fight inflation. And I think the third thing is that there's extraordinary faith in the deflationary forces of technology. Now, all three of those things may absolutely, positively be true. The problem that we have is that the alternate case, right? The case that we're making – that maybe we're in a new inflationary regime is not priced, and the risk is non-zero. And so, what we see, and what we're watching is – how steep does the yield curve get, right? As we look at yields in the 10-30-year tenure – what is driving those rates higher? Is it a generic term premium? Or are we starting to see an unanchoring, if you will, of inflation expectations. And it takes a while for people to appreciate regime change. And so, look, as is always the case, there's no absolutes in the market. There's no one theory that is priced and the other theory is not. But sometimes you want to hedge, and we think that we're going through a period where diversified portfolios and hedging for these alternative outcomes -- because there are such powerful structural crosscurrents – is the preferred path. Andrew Sheets: Lisa, thanks for sharing your insights Lisa Shalett: Of course, Andrew. That's my pleasure. Andrew Sheets: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us, wherever you listen. It helps more people find the show.

347: Protecting Your Nonprofit from Fraud (Amy Seintourens) SUMMARYThis episode is brought to you by TowneBank, whose ongoing support can be a powerful partner for your organization, offering financial expertise, expanded community relationships, and practical advice no matter your budget size. Learn more at TowneBank.com/NonprofitBanking. Fraud is one of the most underestimated risks in the nonprofit sector - and one of the most disruptive when it strikes. In Episode #347 of Your Path to Nonprofit Leadership, fraud prevention expert Amy Seintourens, SVP and Director of Fraud Management at TowneBank, breaks down the real vulnerabilities nonprofits face today, from internal threats and weak controls to sophisticated email scams, phone spoofing, counterfeit checks, and mail theft. Using clear examples and practical guidance, Amy explains why small organizations can be even more vulnerable and how simple steps - dual controls, treasury services, verification habits, and ongoing team training - significantly reduce risk. Whether you're a founder handling your own bookkeeping, a board treasurer overseeing internal controls, or a senior leader strengthening organizational resilience, Amy offers straightforward strategies to help you prevent fraud before it happens - not after it's too late.ABOUT AMYAmy Seintourens is the Senior Vice President and Director of Fraud Management at TowneBank, bringing 31 years of experience in fraud prevention and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) compliance. She began her career in 1994 at Dean Witter, later known as Morgan Stanley, before joining EverBank in 2011, where she gained extensive experience supporting a primarily online bank environment. Amy maintains both her ACAMS (Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist) and CFE (Certified Fraud Examiner) credentials. She joined TowneBank in 2018 to support BSA operations and was promoted in 2022 to lead Fraud Management for the organization. Amy is deeply passionate about educating employees and members, staying ahead of emerging fraud trends, and helping nonprofits and businesses strengthen their internal controls.RESOURCESLearn more about fraud prevention at TowneBank.comTowneBank's The Shield bi-monthly fraud-prevention newsletterLet Them by Mel Robbins (Amy's book recommendation)Armstrong McGuireYour Path to Nonprofit Leadership (Audible edition available)

$MU earnings surprised me. Again - earnings for AI are REALLY good. But the spending continues to bring the market down. Plus these 2 REITS will pay you to start out 2026 - solid plays found using scanners. THESE SALES END SOON: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TRENDSPIDER HOLIDAY SALE - Get 52 trainings for the next year at 68% off. Become a Trendspider master! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SEEKING ALPHA BUNDLE - Save over $100 and get Premium and Alpha Picks together ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ALPHA PICKS - Want to Beat the S&P? Save $50 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Seeking Alpha Premium - FREE 7 DAY TRIAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SEEKING ALPHA PRO - TRY IT FOR A MONTH ⁠⁠⁠EPISODE SUMMARY

When you read the title of this episode, you may have thought that I'm here to tell you about the next app you need to download or the algorithm hack you're already late to. But no… Goal Digger, I'm here to tell you what I'm seeing beneath the surface. The shifts that are happening whether we talk about them or not. The moves the sanest, smartest women I know are already making quietly. This isn't about keeping up. It's about seeing what's coming and deciding—on your terms—what you want to build toward. The future doesn't belong to the loudest or the busiest. It belongs to the women who built something they can actually sustain. Who chose presence over performance. Who said no to the parts of this that were slowly killing them. So let's talk about where we're headed. Not so you can add ten more things to your to-do list. But so you can exhale. So you can see what you've been feeling is not just you… It's the beginning of something new. Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/2026-marketing-predictions-for-small-business  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.

Our Public Policy Strategists Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore break down key moves from the White House, U.S. Congress and Supreme Court that could influence markets 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, U.S. Public Policy Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about the outlook for U.S. public policy and its interaction with markets into 2026.It's Wednesday, December 17th at 10:30am in New York.So, Ariana, we published our year ahead outlook last month. And since then, you've been out there talking to clients about U.S. public policy, its interaction with markets, and how that plays into 2026. What sorts of topics are on investors' minds around this theme?Ariana Salvatore: So, the first thing I'd say is clients are definitely interested in our more bullish outlook, in particular for the U.S. equity market. And normally we would start these conversations by talking through the policy variables, right? Immigration, deregulation, fiscal, and trade policy. But I think now we're actually post peak uncertainty for those variables, and we're talking through how the policy choices that have been made interact with the outlook.So, in particular for the equity market, we do think that some of the upside actually is pretty isolated from the fact that we're post peak uncertainty on tariffs, for example. Consumer discretionary – the double upgrade that our strategists made in the outlook has very little to do with the policy backdrop, and more to do with fundamentals, and things like AI and the dollar tailwind and all of all those factors.So, I think that that's a key difference. I would say it's more about the implementation of these policy decisions rather than which direction is the policy going to go in.Michael Zezas: Picking up on that point about policy uncertainty, when we were having this conversation a year ago, right after the election, looking into 2025, the key policy variables that we were going to care about – trade, fiscal policy regulation – there was a really wide range of plausible outcomes there.With tariffs, for example, you could make a credible argument that they weren't going to increase at all. But you could also make a credible argument that the average effective tariff rate was going to go up to 50 or 60 percent. While the tariff story certainly isn't over going into 2026, it certainly feels like we've landed in a place that's more range bound. It's an average effective tariff rate that's four to five times higher than where we started the year, but not nearly as high as some of the projections would have. There's still some negotiation that's going on between the U.S. and China and ways in which that could temporarily escalate; and with some other geographies as well. But we think the equilibrium rate is roughly around where we're at right now.Fiscal policy is another area where the projections were that we were going to have anything from a very substantial deficit expansion. Tax cuts that wouldn't be offset in any meaningful way by spending cuts; to a fiscal contraction, which was going to be more focused on heavier spending cuts that would've more than offset any tax cuts. We landed somewhere in between. It seems like there's some modest stimulus in the pipe for next year. But again, that is baked. We don't expect Congress to do much more there.And in terms of regulation, listen, this is a little bit more difficult, but regulatory policy tends to move slowly. It's a bureaucratic process. We thought that some of it would start last year, but it would be in process and potentially hit next year and the year after. And that's kind of where we are.So, we more or less know how these variables have become something closer to constants, and to your point, Ariana now it's about observing how economic actors, companies, consumers react to those policy choices. And what that means for the economy next year.All that said, there's always the possibility that we could be wrong. So, going back to tariffs for a minute, what are you looking at that could change or influence trade policy in a way that investors either might not expect or just have to account for in a new way?Ariana Salvatore: So, I would say the clearest catalyst is the impending decision from the Supreme Court on the legality of the IEEPA tariffs. I think on that front, there are really two things to watch. The first is what President Trump does in response. Right now, there's an expectation that he will just replace the tariffs with other existing authorities, which I think probably should still be our base case. There's obviously a growing possibility, we think, that he actually takes a lighter touch on tariffs, given the concerns around affordability. And then the second thing I would say is on the refunds piece. So, if the Supreme Court does, in fact, say that the Treasury has to pay back the tariff revenue that it's collected, we've investigated some different scenarios what that could look like. In short, we think it's going to be dragged out over a long time period, probably six months at a minimum. And a lot of this will come down to the implementation and what specifically Treasury and CBP, its Customs and Border Protection, sets up to get that money back out to companies.The second catalyst on the trade front is really the USMCA review. So, this is an important topic because it matters a lot for the nearshoring narrative, for the trade relationship that the U.S. has with Mexico and Canada. And there are a number of sectors that come into scope. Obviously, Autos is the clearest impact.So, that's something that's going to happen by the middle of next year. But early in January, the USTR has to give his evaluation of the effectiveness of the USMCA to Congress. I think at that point we're going to start to see headlines. We're going to go start to see lawmakers engage more publicly with this topic. And again, a lot at stake in terms of North American supply chains. So that's going to be a really interesting development to keep an eye on next year too.Michael Zezas: So, what about things that Congress might do? Recently the President and Democrats have been talking about the concept of affordability in the wake of some of the off-cycle elections, where that appeared to influence voter behavior and give Democrats an advantage. So are there policies, any legislative policies in particular, that might come to the forefront that might impact how consumers behave?Ariana Salvatore: So a really important starting point here is just on the process itself, right? So, as we've said, one of the more reliable historical priors is that it's difficult to legislate during election years. That's a function of the fact that lawmakers just aren't in D.C. as often. You also have limited availabilities in terms of procedure itself because Republicans would have to probably do another Reconciliation Bill unless you get some bipartisan support.But hitting on this topic of affordability, there really are a few different things on the table right now. Obviously, the President has spoken about these tariff dividend checks, the $2,000. They've spoken about making changes on housing policy, so housing deregulation, and then the third is on these expanded ACA subsidies.Those were obviously the crux of the government shutdown debate. And for a variety of reasons, I think each of these are really challenging to see moving over the finish line in the coming months. We think that you would need to see some sort of exogenous economic downturn, which is not currently in our economists' baseline forecast, to really get that kind of more reactive fiscal policy.And because of those procedural constraints, I would just go back to the point we were saying earlier around tariff policy and maybe the Supreme Court decision, giving Trump this opportunity to pull back a little bit. It's really the easiest and most available policy lever he has to address affordability. And to that point, the administration has already taken steps in this direction. They provided a number of exemptions on agricultural products and said they weren't going to move forward with the Section 232 tariffs on semiconductors in the very near term. So, we're already seeing directionally, I would say, movement in this area.Michael Zezas: Yeah. And I think we should also keep our eye on potential legislation around energy exploration. This is something that in the past has had bipartisan support loosening up regulations around that, and it's something that also ties into the theme of developing AI as a national imperative. That being said, it's not in our base case because Democrats and Republicans might agree on the high points of loosening up regulations for energy exploration. But there's a lot of disagreements on the details below the surface.But there's also the midterm elections next year. So, how do you think investors should be thinking about that – as a major catalyst for policy change? Or is it more of the same: It's an interesting story that we should track, but ultimately not that consequential.Ariana Salvatore: So obviously we're still a year out. A lot can change. But obviously we're keeping an eye on polling and that sort of data that's coming in daily at this point. The historical precedent will tell you that the President's party almost always loses seats in a midterm election. And in the House with a three-seat majority for Republicans, the bar's actually pretty low for Democrats to shift control back. In the Senate, the map is a little bit different. But let's say you were to get something like a split Congress, we think the policy ramifications there are actually quite limited. If you get a divided government, you basically get fiscal gridlock. So, limits to fiscal expansion, absent like a recession or something like that – that we don't expect at the moment. But you really will probably see legislation only in areas that have bipartisan support.In the meantime, I think you could also expect to see more kind of political fights around things like appropriations, funding the government, the debt ceiling that's typical of divided governments, unless you have some area of bipartisan support, like I said. Maybe we see something on healthcare, crypto policy, AI policy, industrial policy is becoming more of the mainstream in both parties, so potentially some action there.But I think that's probably the limit of the most consequential policy items we should be looking out for.Michael Zezas: Right, so the way I've been thinking about it is: No clear new policies that someone has to account for coming out of the midterms. However, we definitely have to pay attention. There could be some soft signals there about political preferences and resulting policy preferences that might become live a couple years down the line after we get into the 2028 general elections – and the new power configuration that could result from that.So – interesting, impactful, not clear that there'll be fundamental catalysts. And probably along the way we should pay attention because markets will discount all sorts of potential outcomes. And it could get the wrong way on interpreting midterm outcomes, which could present opportunities. So, we'll certainly be tracking that throughout 2026.Ariana Salvatore: Yeah. And if you think about the policy items that President Trump has leaned on most heavily this year and that have mattered for markets, there are things in the executive branch, right? So, tariff policy obviously does not depend on Congress. Deregulation helps if you have fundamental backing from Congress but can occur through the executive agencies. So, to your point, less to watch out for in terms of how it will shift Trump's behavior.Michael Zezas: Well, Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Always great speaking with you, Michael.Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss:  Tripolar World (TPW) - regional integration in Asia, Europe, and Americas. Global growth long cycle driven by spending on AI, defense, and climate across regions. China-US AI competition The shift from chip quality to power costs as the key AI competitive advantage. Brazil and Spain's clean energy plays Why 2025 is not like the 2000 dotcom bubble Private credit opportunities Attractive China tech valuations China's five-year plan Europe's potential Countries pressuring institutions to invest domestically rather than in US markets. 

Michael Butler is Chairman and CEO of Cascadia Capital, the independent investment bank that has completed more than 550 deals since Michael co-founded it in 1999.  Discussion begins with early stops in Michael's journey – childhood and college in Washington state, then moving cross country to try his luck in Manhattan, a first job at Morgan Stanley and then business school at Wharton.  This episode stands out, though, as a world-class case study on how a CEO thinks about building, capitalizing, and differentiating his firm.  Michael charts Cascadia's evolution to highly particularized vertical specialization and to representing private equity as well as non-institutional sellers.  Atlas Capital's strategic investment in late 2022 and the firm's move from Seattle to Austin are more recent highlights of a large independent investment bank on the rise.

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur responds to some of the feedback from clients on Morgan Stanley's 2026 global outlooks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today, I consider the pushback we've received on our 2026 outlooks – distilling the themes that drew the most debate and our responses to the debates. It's Tuesday, Dec 16th at 3:30pm in New York. It's been a few weeks [since] we published our 2026 outlooks for the global economy and markets. We've had lots of wide-ranging conversations, much dialogue and debate with our clients across the globe on the key themes that we laid out in our outlook. Feedback has ranged from strong alignment to pointed disagreement, with many nuanced views in between. We welcome this dialogue, especially the pushback, as it forces us to re-examine our assumptions and refine our thinking. Our constructive stance on AI and data center-related CapEx, along with the pivotal role we see for the credit market channels, drew notable scrutiny. Our 2026 CapEx projections was anchored by a strong conviction – that demand for compute will far outstrip the supply over the next several years. We remain confident that credit markets across unsecured, structured, and securitized instruments in both public and private domains will be central to the financing of the next wave of AI-driven investments. The crucial point here is that we think this spending will be relatively insensitive to the macro conditions, i.e., the level of interest rates and economic growth. Regarding the level of AI investment, we received a bit of pushback on our economics forecast: Why don't we forecast even more growth from AI CapEx? From our perspective, that is going to be a multi-year process, so the growth implications also extend over time. Our U.S. credit strategists' forecast for IG bond supply – $2.25 trillion in gross issuance; that's up 25 percent year-over-year, or $1 trillion in net issuance; that's 60 percent year-over-year – garnered significant attention. There was some pushback to the volume of the issuance we project. As CapEx growth outpaces revenue and pressures free cash flow, credit becomes a key financing bridge. Importantly, AI is not the sole driver of the surge that we forecast. A pick-up in M&A activity and the resulting increase in acquisition-driven IG supply also will play a key role, in our view. We also received pushback on our expectation for modest widening in credit spreads, roughly 15 basis points in investment grade, which we still think will remain near the low end of the historical ranges despite this massive surge in supply. Some clients argued for more widening, but we note that the bulk of the AI-related issuance will come from high-quality – you know AAA-AA rated issuers – which are currently underrepresented in credit markets relative to their equity market weight. Additionally, continued policy easing – two more rate cuts – modest economic re-acceleration, and persistent demand from yield-focused buyers should help to anchor the spreads. Our macro strategists' framing of 2026 as a transition year for global rates – from synchronized tightening to asynchronous normalization as central banks approach equilibrium – was broadly well received, as was their call for government bond yields to remain broadly range-bound. However, their view that markets will price in a dovish tilt to Fed policy sparked considerable debate. While there was broad agreement on the outlook for yield curve steepening, the nature of that steepening – bull steepening or bear steepening – remained a point of contention. Outside the U.S., the biggest pushback was to the call on the ECB cutting rates two more times in 2026. Our economists disagreed with President Lagarde – that the disinflationary process has ended. Even with moderate continued euro area growth on German fiscal expansion, but consolidation elsewhere, we still see an output gap that will eventually lead inflation to undershoot the ECB's 2 percent target. We also engaged in lively dialogue and debate on China. The key debate here comes down to a micro versus macro story. Put differently, the market is not the economy and the economy is not the market. Sentiment on investments in China has turned around this year, and our strategists are on board with that view. However, from an economics point of view, we see deflation continuing and fiscal policy from Beijing as a bit too modest to spark near-term reflation. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

George Tsilis returns to an overlooked stock he previously talked about: Lemonade (LMND). This time, he explains why Morgan Stanley issued an upgrade for the digital insurance company as the stock trades just off a 4-year high. That said, as George explains, the upgrade moves Morgan Stanley from the bear camp into a neutral one as Lemonade inches toward profitability. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

A $19.5 billion charge will hit Ford's (F) balance sheet in regards to the legacy automaker's EV business. Diane King Hall explains why the company is making a strategy pivot and how Ford expects outlook to improve despite the charge. Pfizer's (PFE) guidance wasn't rosy as COVID product sales continue to decline. Lockheed Martin (LMT) faced pressure from a Morgan Stanley downgrade. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Every time my mom comes on the show, you ask me to bring her back. You want her wisdom and her perspective, the way she sees straight through to what actually matters… and today, we're giving the people what they want! My mom, Sue Shelerud, is intelligent, fierce, persuasive, empathetic, and deeply respected. Over the years, she built her impact face to face in classrooms and living rooms and hospital hallways. She shaped people and held space and asked the hard questions that made them think differently.  I realized that as I've gotten older, we need collectively to learn from women like her, the ones who led in different ways than we do, the ones whose platform looked different, but whose influence was undeniable. The ones who remind us that impact isn't about how loud you are, it's about how deeply you show up.  So today we're talking about motherhood and identity, about the differences between her generation and mine, about what it means to be a safe space for people, about what gets passed down when you lead with presence and not performance. This powerful conversation is for me, it's for my daughters, it's for anyone trying to learn from the women who came before us, the ones who did things differently, and the ones whose power showed up in ways we're only now learning to name. Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/motherhood-generational-wisdom-conversation-with-my-mom  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the significance of the Fed's decision to resume buying $40 billion of Treasury bills monthly. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the Fed's decision last week and what it means for stocks.It's Monday, December 15th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Last week's Fed meeting provided incremental support for our positive 2026 outlook on equities. The Fed delivered on its expected hawkish rate cut but also indicated it would do more if the labor market continues to soften. More important than the rate cut was the Fed's decision to restart asset purchases. More specifically, the Fed intends to immediately begin buying $40 billion of T-Bills per month to ensure the smooth operation of financial markets. Based on our conversations with investors prior to the announcement, this amount and timing of bill buying exceeded both consensus, and my own expectations. It also confirms a key insight I have been discussing for months and highlighted in our Year Ahead Outlook. First, the Fed is not independent of markets, and market stability often plays a dominant role in Fed policy beyond the stated dual mandate of full employment and price stability.Second, given the size of the debt and deficit, the Fed has an additional responsibility to assist Treasury in funding the government, and will likely continue to work more closely with Treasury in this regard.Finally, the decision to intervene in funding markets sooner and more aggressively than expected may not be ‘Quantitative Easing' as defined by the Fed. However, it is a form of debt monetization that directly helps to reduce the crowding out from the still growing Treasury issuance, especially as Treasury issues more Bills over Bonds.At the Fed's October meeting, it indicated some concern about tightening liquidity which I have discussed on this podcast as the single biggest risk to the bull market in stocks. Evidence of this tightness can be seen in the performance of asset prices most sensitive to liquidity, including crypto currencies and profitless growth stocks.While the Fed probably isn't too concerned about the performance of these asset classes, it does care about financial stability in the bond, credit and funding markets. This is what likely prompted it to restart asset purchases sooner and in a more significant way than most expected.We view this as a form of debt monetization as I mentioned, given the Treasury's objective to issue more bills going forward. More importantly, these purchases provide additional liquidity for markets, and in combination with rate cuts, suggest the Fed is likely less worried about missing its inflation target. This is very much in line with our run it hot thesis dating back to early 2021. As a reminder, accelerating inflation is positive for asset prices as long as it doesn't force the Fed's hand to take the punch bowl away like in 2022. Ironically, the risk in the near-term is that this larger than expected asset purchase program may be insufficient if the Fed has materially underestimated the level of reserves necessary for markets to operate smoothly. This is what happened in 2019 and why the Fed created the Standing Repo Facility in the first place. However, this is more of a tool that is used on an as-needed basis. What the markets may want or need is a larger buffer if the Fed has underestimated the level of reserves required for smoothly functioning financial markets.To be clear, I don't know what that level is, but I do believe markets will tell us if the Fed has done enough with this latest provision. Liquidity-sensitive asset classes and areas of the equity market will be important to watch in this regard, particularly given how weak they traded last Friday and this morning.Bottom line, the Fed has reacted to the markets' tremors over the past few months. Should markets wobble again, we are highly confident the Fed will once again react until things calm down. Last week's FOMC meeting only increases our conviction in that case and keeps us bullish over the next 6-12 months, and our 7800 price target on the S&P 500. We would welcome a correction in the short term as a buying opportunity. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why 2026 might bring a credit cycle that burns hotter before it burns out.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today I'm going to talk about our outlook for global credit markets in 2026 and why we think the credit cycle burns hotter before it burns out.It's Friday, December 12th at 2pm in London.Surely it can't go on like this. That phrase is probably coming up a lot as global credit investors sit down and plan for 2026. Credit spreads are sitting at 25 year plus tights in the U.S. and Asia. Issuance in corporate activity are increasingly aggressive. Corporate CapEx is surging. Signs of pressure are clear in the lowest rated parts of the market. And credit investors are trained to worry. Aren't all of these and more signs that a credit cycle is starting to crack under its own weight?Not quite yet, according to our views here at Morgan Stanley. Instead, we think that 2026 brings a credit cycle that burns hotter before it burns out. The reason is partly due to an unusually stimulative backdrop. Central banks are cutting interest rates. Governments are spending more money, and regulatory policy is easing. All of that, alongside maybe the largest investment cycle in a generation around artificial intelligence, should spur more risk taking from a corporate sector that has the capacity to do so.In turn, we think the playbook for credit is going to look a lot like 2005 or 1997-1998. Both periods saw levels of capital expenditure, merger activity, interest rates, and an unemployment rate that are pretty similar to what Morgan Stanley expects next year. And so, looking ahead to 2026, these two periods offer two competing ways to view the year ahead.2025 might be more similar to a period where the low-end consumer really is starting to struggle, but that another force – back then it was China, now it might be AI spending – keeps the broader market humming. 1997 or 1998, on the other hand, would be more similar to a narrative that investors are growing more confident that a new technology is really transformative. Back then, it was the internet and now it's AI.Corporate bond issuance we think will be central to how this resolves itself. This is a strong regional theme and a key driver of our views across U.S., European and Asia Credit. We forecast net issuance to rise significantly in U.S. investment grade up over 60 percent versus 2025 to a total of around $1 trillion.That rise is powered by a continued increase in technology spending to fund AI as well as a broader increase in capital expenditure and merger activity. All of those bonds being sold to the market should mean that U.S. spreads need to move wider to adjust. And that's true, even if underlying demand for credit remains pretty healthy, thanks to high yields, and the economy ultimately holds up.We think this story is a bit better in other areas and regions that have less relative issuance, including European and Asian investment grade and global high yield. They all outperform U.S. investment grade on our forecast. In total returns, we think that all of these markets produce a return of around 4 to 6 percent, and if that's true, it would underperform, say U.S. equities, but outperform cash.More granularly similar to 2025 or 2005, we think that single name and sector dispersion remain major themes. And where you position in maturity should also matter. Credit curves are steep and our U.S. interest rate strategist are expecting the U.S. Treasury curve to steepen significantly Further. That should mean that so-called carry and roll down and where you position on the maturity curve are a pretty big driver of your ultimate result. In our view, corporate bonds between five- and 10-year maturity in both the U.S. and Europe will offer the best risk reward.The most significant risk for global credit remains recession, which we think would argue for wider spreads on both economic rounds, but also through weaker demand as yields would fall. It would mean that our spread forecasts are too optimistic and that our expectation that high yield outperforms investment grade would be wrong. And then there's a milder version of this bear case – that aggression and corporate supply are even stronger than we think, and that creates conditions closer to late 1998 or 1999.Back then, U.S. investment grade spreads were roughly 30 basis points wider than current levels, even though the economy was strong and even though the equity market kept going up.Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, please tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Send us a textWe are back from hiatus and diving straight into the high-stakes world of Industry Season 3, Episode 3, "It." Join former Morgan Stanley investment bankers Jen and Kristen as we decode the finance behind the drama at the COP climate conference in Switzerland. In this episode, we break down the hypocrisy of ESG investing, the regulatory "Chinese Wall" between equity research and investment banking, and why pressuring an analyst for a buy rating isn't just frowned upon—it's illegal. We also analyze the mechanics of Petra and Harper's rogue attempt to launch a new "Leviathan" fund, fact-checking everything from non-compete clauses to Harper's strategic lie about being a former "trader" rather than a salesperson.Beyond the balance sheets, we dig into the psychological horror of the episode—from Eric's glitter-covered spiral into a midlife crisis to the trauma-bonding between Yasmin and Henry Muck. We discuss the nuances of "dad trauma," the reality of IPO lockup periods, and the cringe-worthy dynamics of pitching a non-ESG fund at a climate summit. We also explore the literary references to King Lear and Leviathan that foreshadow the power struggle between Harper, Petra, and the wealthy Otto Mostyn.Finally, we debate the double meaning of the episode title "It"—is it a reference to Stephen King horror, or simply who has the "It factor" to survive on Wall Street? We wrap up by delivering our Bullish and Bearish takes on the cast, deciding who is playing the long game and who is about to fold. Whether you're here for the technical breakdown of hedge fund marketing or the messy workplace drama, we've got the skinny on what's real and what's just Hollywood.Learn more about 9fin HERE Shop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others' experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

Neville Rhone joins host Brandon Sedloff on The Distribution for a thoughtful conversation about his path from engineering to real estate, the experiences that shaped his investment philosophy, and the evolution of Arc Capital Partners. He reflects on early lessons from Morgan Stanley and Canyon Partners, the formation of Arc, and why the middle market remains the most compelling area for generating durable returns. Neville also breaks down today's capital-constrained environment, the structural challenges facing owners, and how Arc is positioning itself as a solution provider during a period of dislocation. The discussion closes with a look at where he sees the greatest opportunities ahead and what GPs should know before reaching out. They discuss: • Neville's early influences and shift from engineering into real estate • Key takeaways from roles at Morgan Stanley and Canyon Partners • The founding of Arc Capital Partners and the firm's middle-market focus • How today's capital crisis is creating opportunities for structured solutions • The sectors and geographies Arc is prioritizing over the next several years Links: Neville on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/neville-rhone-jr-60936a3/ Arc Capital Partners - https://arccapitalpartners.com/ Brandon on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/bsedloff/ Juniper Square - https://www.junipersquare.com/ Topics: (00:00:00) - Intro (00:02:09) - Neville's background and career (00:13:07) - Joining Canyon Partners (00:19:26) - Founding Arc Capital Partners (00:23:19) - Early challenges and successes (00:27:52) - The importance of investing during difficult times (00:29:55) - Current state and future of Arc Capital (00:32:25) - Navigating capital crises (00:33:11) - Advice for aspiring institutional capital raisers (00:35:44) - Opportunities in the middle market (00:39:49) - Arc Capital's investment focus (00:47:19) - Future opportunities and focus areas (00:53:46) - Conclusion and contact information

The Oil Ground Up podcast welcomes Doug Terreson to parse the dynamics of the chaotic and confusing current oil market. Terreson details his illustrious career path, which included drilling oil wells for Schlumberger, managing one of the world's largest energy funds on the buy side at Putnam, and managing the global energy group at Morgan Stanley and Evercore for 30 years. He explains how his research note, "The Era of the Super Major" (1998), spurred the industry's most significant consolidation phase since 1911 by forcing companies to pivot from growing production to a value-based model. This focus on value was reinforced by "The Pledge" in 2017, which mandated greater capital discipline, flat spending, and tying intrinsic value metrics to CEO pay. Discussing the present, Terreson analyzes the complex situation where fundamental analysis points to potentially massive inventory builds that have never been seen before. However, he suggests the market must also account for aggressive geopolitical currents, including a potential strategic push from the U.S. and allies that may be defunding three different global conflicts. Finally, Terreson shares his long-term view on the refining sector, recalling his profitable "Golden Age of Refining" call and asserting that utilization rates and margins are poised to rise again due to zero net growth in global refining capacity.

Podcast: PrOTect It All (LS 26 · TOP 10% what is this?)Episode: AI, Human Behavior & Cybersecurity's Future: Cutting Complexity and Strengthening DefensePub date: 2025-12-08Get Podcast Transcript →powered by Listen411 - fast audio-to-text and summarizationThe future of cybersecurity won't be won by tools alone - it will be won by people, process, and smarter use of AI. In this episode of Protect It All, host Aaron Crow sits down with cybersecurity veteran Sharad Rai to explore how IT and OT security teams can reduce complexity, fight alert fatigue, and build stronger defenses through foundational practices and intelligent automation. Sharad brings decades of real-world experience - from early firewall management to leading large-scale security programs at major financial institutions. Together, Aaron and Sharad break down what actually works in cybersecurity today: simplifying policies, understanding user behavior, strengthening basics like patching, and leveraging AI for contextual decision-making. You'll learn: Why human behavior is the root of both risk and resilience How AI can reduce complexity, noise, and alert fatigue What “good vs bad” looks like through an AI-driven, context-aware lens How policy overload cripples organizations - and how to fix it Why OT and IT security still depend on foundational hygiene The rise of browser-based security and Chrome as an endpoint What's coming next: AI-driven phishing, contextual controls, and automated response Whether you're a security leader, practitioner, or just navigating modern cyber challenges, this episode will reshape how you think about defending systems and the people using them. Tune in to discover how AI, clarity, and human-centered design are shaping cybersecurity's next chapter only on Protect It All. Key Moments:  06:21 "Cybersecurity Basics: Know the Layers" 09:49 "Defining Good to Block Bad" 13:03 Alarm Fatigue and Information Overload 14:01 Alarm Tuning and Data Utilization 19:02 RFID Tags and Process Frustration 23:03 Simplifying Cybersecurity for Success 25:18 "AI Optimizing Policy Adjustments" 27:33 "Tech Frustrations Then and Now" 31:46 Cloud Computing Transformed Everyday Work 36:05 Focus on Foundational Basics About the guest :  Sharad Rai is a cybersecurity leader and architect with over 20 years of experience securing some of the world's most complex financial institutions. As Vice President of Security and Architecture at State Street, he leads regulatory-driven initiatives and delivers enterprise-wide cybersecurity programs across cloud, infrastructure, and endpoint platforms. Sharad has held key security roles at Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, Jefferies, and Foundation Medicine, with deep expertise in EDR, PAM, SASE, ZTNA, and cloud-native security. He is known for simplifying complexity, reducing risk, and bridging product, engineering, and executive teams. How to connect Sharad: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sharad-rai-cissp-a951a28 Connect With Aaron Crow: Website: www.corvosec.com  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aaronccrow Learn more about PrOTect IT All: Email: info@protectitall.co  Website: https://protectitall.co/  X: https://twitter.com/protectitall  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PrOTectITAll  FaceBook:  https://facebook.com/protectitallpodcast  To be a guest or suggest a guest/episode, please email us at info@protectitall.co Please leave us a review on Apple/Spotify Podcasts: Apple   - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/protect-it-all/id1727211124 Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/1Vvi0euj3rE8xObK0yvYi4The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Aaron Crow, which is the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Listen Notes, Inc.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the Fed's path as inflation remains above its target and the labor market continues cooling.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Yesterday, the FOMC meeting delivered another quarter percentage point rate cut. Today we're here to discuss what happens next.It's Thursday, December 11th at 8:30 AM in New York. So, Mike, once again, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points. That outcome was not a surprise, and the markets reacted positively. But there were some surprises. A bit of a divided FOMC, if you will. How did things play out during the meeting and what are some important takeaways to keep in mind? Michael Gapen: Yeah, well certainly Matt, it is a divided committee. I think that's clear. I think one key takeaway for me is the idea that the Fed is done with risk management rate cuts, and now we're back to data dependent. So, what does that mean? I mean, a risk management rate cut isn't necessarily about the data you have in hand and the data you see; it's your view about the distribution of risks around that. So, in some ways, you're not data dependent when you're making those cuts. Now, I think the challenge at this press conference for Powell was to say, ‘Well, now things are different.' And it was a nuance in the sense that cuts from here, if and when they come, will be data dependent. But I think at the same time he did not want to communicate that the bar for those rate cuts were exceptionally high. But I think he threaded the needle quite well in transitioning from risk management cuts, which aren't data dependent to an outlook, which is now more data dependent. And I thought he did that artfully well. So, for me, that's the big key. Secondarily I'd add a takeaway for me was he seems fairly confident that inflation will be coming down, and I think he still believes the labor market is cooling. The blend of that came across as a bit dovish to me. And then the third thing I would add is he fairly explicitly ruled out the risk of rate hikes. So, I think the combination of those three things: data dependence, still concerns about cooling in the labor market, and chopping off the upper half of the rate path distribution – those were kind of the key takeaways from my point. Matthew Hornbach: So, Mike, with respect to the labor market, Chair Powell did address it in a couple of different ways. But one of the ways that stood out to my ears was how he described some technical factors that people are well aware of – that could mean the economy is actually shedding jobs to the tune of about 20,000 per month. I was wondering if you could just briefly address what those factors – that are supposedly so well known – might be. Michael Gapen: Sure. So, obviously the data that gets released, there are the initial releases and then there are revisions. And in the labor market, there are what are called annual benchmark revisions. So, the BLS released a preliminary estimate of that benchmark revision several months ago, and if you apply that initial estimate, it would suggest that job growth in 2025 could be about 60,000 jobs per month, less than has already been reported. But at the same time, we know immigration controls are slowing growth in the labor force. So, this is what Powell is calling the really curious balance. How can you have employment growth basically zero, maybe even negative, after these revisions come in – and the unemployment rate relatively stable. Yes, it's gone up a few tenths, but not like you would normally expect that rise would be if we were shedding jobs. So that to me is why he… You know; the technical factors about revisions and things that lead them to be, I think, very unsure about where the labor market is; and lean in the direction of thinking lower rates are better to manage those risks than where they were six months ago. Matthew Hornbach: One of the points that you raised in your opening explanation of the meeting was about inflation. And Chair Powell mentioned an expectation that the inflation related to tariffs would be peaking in the first quarter of the year. That sounded very familiar to me because I believe that's your expectation as well. I'm curious. How are you looking at tariffs and the inflation related to tariffs today? And do you agree with Chair Powell still? Michael Gapen: We do. Our modeling of the tariff pass through and our conversations with clients and firms and what we hear on corporate earnings calls suggests that this is a long process. Meaning tariffs go in place, prices don't go up the next month. Firms make pricing decisions that take time to implement. So, we agree that the tariff pass through story will extend into 2026 and likely through the end of the first quarter. And if that's true, then goods prices should continue to move higher. The year-on-year rate of inflation should move higher, peaking at 3 percent or a little above in the first quarter of the year. And then tat effect should we think be over, which would open the door for overall inflation to start coming back down. So, I will use the dreaded T-word. We think ultimately inflation from tariffs will be transitory. And I agree with the Chair's timeline; inflation should peak in the first quarter of the year and then start to trend down. That said, we think inflation will be above the Fed's 2 percent target into 2027, and this is the cost of providing insurance to the labor market. Matthew Hornbach: So finally, all things considered, what is your outlook for Fed policy in 2026? Michael Gapen: Yeah, and the key here, Matt, is that exactly what you just implied about tariffs and inflation still going on into 2026, right? Because what we know is while firms are gauging exactly where they should be pricing, they've been offsetting tariffs through lower demand for labor. So, we think the Fed will be cutting again in January. We have three months of employment data that come across two employment reports between now and the January meeting. We think they will show continued cooling in the labor market. And then we have a second cut next year in in April. So, while tariffs are getting passed through, we think the labor market will continue to cool. And this Fed will be biased to cutting rates to provide support to the labor market in the process. That would mean the federal funds rate gets to 3 – 3.25 percent in the second quarter of 2026, where we think it'll stay.So Matt, I'd like to ask you a question. What I noticed was the rate market backed up going into the meeting, despite the fact that market participants were projecting a cut. And then the rate market rallied, in my view, significantly during the meeting and right after. What do you think was happening there? Matthew Hornbach: So, there's a phenomenon that happens in all markets where investors often speculate on a potential outcome. And if the outcome is then delivered, the follow-on price action is underwhelming. That is colloquially known as buying the rumor and selling the fact. So, I think going into this meeting kind of in line with your expectations, investors were forming very similar expectations about how the FOMC statement itself would change and the implications that that might have for the future of Fed policy. When that hawkish cut was delivered almost exactly as you had expected, Mike, I think, investors started thinking about the future in a slightly different way. Now that their expectations were met with the meeting outcome, they started to consider, the data that is forthcoming. And whenever, officials at the Fed talk about data in the way that Chair Powell spoke about the data – and by which I mean labeled the labor market as potentially losing jobs at the moment, and labeling inflation as transitory, that we'd be past the peak of tariff related inflation after the first quarter of the year. Investors can kind of look at those factors and extrapolate going forward, what that may mean for Fed policy in the first half of 2026. So, I think similar to your expectations for policy after this meeting, investors probably became a bit more confident in your outlook for Fed policy that we would see additional rate cuts in the first half of next year. And then, of course, after the April meeting, the baton will be passed to the next Fed chair, and I think investors are considering what policy might look like under that new regime at the Fed. And on the margin, the view is that the next Fed chair would be more likely than not to continue the process of lowering policy rates. So, I think all of those factors played into the post press conference, and even during the press conference reaction. Michael Gapen: Okay Matt, one last question, if I may. How did the events of the FOMC this week and the market reaction, how does that dovetail with how you're thinking about longer term rates, in particular where you see 10-year yields going? And the dollar? Matthew Hornbach: So, 10-year yields are relatively close to 4 percent at this juncture, and we expect them to drift modestly lower in the first half of 2026, as the Fed continues this process of lowering the policy rate. One point that's very important to make here is that the longer-term Treasury yields today are now sitting well above the Fed's policy rate, and that hasn't been the case for many, many years now. A lot of investors with whom we speak think that longer term yields can head a lot higher from here. But we're skeptical – because the higher that those yields go relative to the Fed's policy rate, the more attractive those bonds become for other investors to buy. So, we don't expect a big increase in longer term interest rates. Unlike some investors, we are expecting interest rates in the long end to remain relatively stable with a downward bias.On the dollar, similarly, we have the dollar continuing its depreciation trend, which it began in January of 2025, earlier this year. We expect that depreciation trend to continue in the first half of 2026 before – similar to the interest rate path – we see a little bit of dollar strength in the second half of the year. And so, you know this being the last FOMC meeting of the year, Mike, I guess we're going to have to take a wait and see approach until the FOMC reconvenes in the new year. Thanks a lot for taking the time to talk about the Fed with me this year. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you Matt. See you in 2026. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, we are joined by Dr. David Nieman, Professor in the department of biology at Appalachian State University and director of the Human Performance Laboratory. A pioneer in exercise immunology with decades of research, he discovered why marathon runners get sick after races and how to prevent it. Vikas & Dr. Nieman discussed in detail about the immune system's response to heavy training, why marathons can suppress immunity, optimal fueling strategies, and how to find your training sweet spot without falling off the overtraining cliff.Here are some key takeaways:Marathon running temporarily crashes your immune system - After a marathon, your odds of getting sick are 2-6 times higher for 1-2 weeks. The stress depletes glycogen, spikes cortisol, and creates an "open window" for viruses.Carbohydrate is your immune system's fuel - Taking in carbs before, during, and after long runs reduces inflammation by 40%. Half marathons are the safe distance - Studies show minimal immune suppression after half marathons. It's when you push beyond 90 minutes at race pace that glycogen depletion triggers immune dysfunction.Blueberries are nature's immune support - Eating a cup daily for two weeks before intense training lets polyphenols accumulate, reducing inflammation and boosting immune function.Never run through a fever - Exercising with systemic illness (fever, body aches) can trigger chronic fatigue syndrome. Take enough rest till you fully recover.Find your sweet spot - Persistent fatigue, irritability, and requiring naps are signs you're pushing too hard. Some athletes push too far and fall into a chronic fatigue state that ruins their lives for years.About Vikas Singh:Vikas Singh, an MBA from Chicago Booth, worked at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, APGlobale, and Reliance before coming up with the idea of democratizing fitness knowledge and helping beginners get on a fitness journey. Vikas is an avid long-distance runner, building fitpage to help people learn, train, and move better.For more information on Vikas, or to leave any feedback and requests, you can reach out to him via the channels below:Instagram: @vikas_singhhLinkedIn: Vikas SinghTwitter: @vikashsingh101Subscribe To Our Newsletter For Weekly Nuggets of Knowledge!

When I started this show, I was working from home, building a business in isolation, and I felt like an imposter in every room I tried to enter. I thought maybe a podcast could help me feel less alone. Maybe it could help me prove I had something worth saying. And here's the part I never saw coming: I didn't think I could do solo episodes! I truly believed I needed a guest, a co-host, someone else to carry the conversation. But hundreds of episodes later, I can talk to a wall forever. I can hold space for an idea, unpack a framework, and connect with you, even though you're not responding in real time. That shift didn't happen overnight. It happened because I kept showing up. And along the way, this mic taught me more than any business course, any mentor, or any strategy ever could. Today, I want to share what I wish someone had told me about what's really possible when you start speaking your truth. Not the surface-level lessons about audio quality or interview techniques, but the deep, transformative shifts that happen when you give yourself permission to grow in public. Maybe you've felt that tug to use your voice, or you've been wondering if podcasting could be the thing that finally changes everything: I want you to understand what you're really signing up for… And why it might be the most important thing you ever do. Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/lessons-from-podcasting  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya and Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang unpack Asia's broadening economic recovery and focus on China's path to market stability in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Laura Wang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist.Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist.Laura Wang: Today – our 2026 macro outlook for Asia with a particular focus on China's equity market.It's Wednesday, December 10th at 10am in Hong Kong.Chetan, as 2025 draws to a close; and if we try to remember what we were thinking about this time last year, I think, probably a lot of the market participants were expecting headwinds going into 2025 on the exports and trade front. But turns out that Asia's export growth is tracking at 8 percent this year so far. What's your explanation for this surprise?Chetan Ahya: Well, yes, Laura, you know, we were all concerned that there will potentially be tariffs, especially on China. And therefore, we were concerned that [the] regions' exports may be affected negatively. However, what has happened is that tech exports have driven the strength in the overall exports for the region. And that is all because of the story on AI and tech development that we have all been watching.But the good news is that non-tech exports will recover in 2026. In fact, that's the key call we are making – that from early next year, you will see that improvement in the U.S. domestic demand that helps Asia's exports. And at the same time, we are expecting that bulk of this tariff-related uncertainty would be behind us. And so those are the two factors we think will support this recovery in non-tech exports in 2026.Laura Wang: That's great. How significant is the shift in exports from tech to non-tech?Chetan Ahya: Well, we think that's very important for [the] regions' economic outlook. Because when you think about the tech exports recovery, it was helpful to keep [the] regions' overall exports growth strong, but it did not have the broader multiplier effect on the economy. So, for example, when you think about the tech exports, it tends to be more capital intensive, and we don't see much benefit on job growth.I think the best example I can give you is when you look at the Taiwan economic numbers. We've seen very strong GDP growth year-to-date. But at the same time, consumption numbers have been very weak. And so, non-tech exports recovery is very important for the broader economic recovery, and that is precisely what we expect in 2026. You will see that broadening out of growth with follow up in CapEx, job growth, and consumption recovery.Laura Wang: Your work suggests that Asia inflation will pick up modestly in 2026. What factors are behind this trend?Chetan Ahya: Well, as the non-tech exports recovery materializes, you should see improvement in capacity utilization across the board in the region. That should reduce the disinflationary pressures that we've been seeing year-to-date. And at the same time, we are expecting that the disinflationary pressures that the region was facing from China is also going to ease in 2026.Laura Wang: How will Asia central banks respond to keep inflation within their comfort zones? And what does this mean for monetary policy across the region in 2026?Chetan Ahya: Well actually, there's not much concern about keeping the inflation within the central bank's comfort zone because what we've seen year-to-date in Asia is that Inflation has been much lower than the central bank's target for a number of economies in the region. And they have been responding to this with more interest rate cuts.But going forward, as disinflationary pressure is reduced, we are expecting that the central banks in the region would end their rate cutting cycle. We should see just about one to two more rate cuts for some of the central banks. And then policy rates should remain largely stable through to the end of 2026.So, Laura, let me come to you now. So, 2025 was a very strong year for China markets. And you see 2026 as a ‘keep it steady' year rather than a breakout year. What does stability look like for investors and companies?Laura Wang: That's right, 2025 was a very good year for China equity market. We saw both MSCI China and Han Sang Index delivering more than 30 percent return in absolute terms. Going into 2026, we see it as a year for investors and for the market to preserve and protect what has been achieved in 2025 so far, but not with significantly much higher upside at this point. This is because the valuation re-reading we've seen so far in 2025 is already more than 30 percent, close to 40 percent.In [20]26, we think the valuation will largely stay at its current level, and further upside for the market will be more driven by solid earnings growth. For 2026, we see MSCI China's earnings growth year-on-year at around 6 percent.Chetan Ahya: So, with that backdrop, Laura, do you expect more inflows into the market next year?Laura Wang: Absolutely. Actually, we have already talked to so many investors on a global basis, and we are seeing much higher level of interest in investing in Chinese equities, particularly in some R&D and innovation heavy sectors.That being said, what we are seeing also is relatively light positioning by global investors in Chinese equities – actually across the board, still a quite sizable underweight, which means there will be much higher room for them to increase their allocation gradually in 2026 back to China.Chetan Ahya: And with the U.S.-China tensions easing a bit, and China doubling down on AI and smart manufacturing, where do you see the real-world opportunities from that?Laura Wang: There will be a lot of opportunities inside Chinese equity market, but we do want to stay with the names that will be delivering very solid earnings growth in the next few years. And we also want to highlight the next five years growth strategy laid out by Chinese policy makers.We want to make sure that we focus on the sectors that are very well aligned with the national growth strategy with a strong focus in R&D and innovation – and that would include AI as well as smart manufacturing, automation, robotics, and biotech. We also have collected very high level of interest from global investors in these sectors.At the same time, as we start to see less deflation pressure in 2026, but still with it potentially persisting into 2027, we want investors to still hold on to some exposure to high quality dividend plays. The steady cash returns from these stocks will help you navigate through some volatilities in the market in next year.Chetan Ahya: So, you expect global investors returning, mainland investors shifting money from savings into stocks, and strong cross-border trading within Hong Kong. What does that mean for market behavior and thematic opportunities?Laura Wang: One very positive development we have observed in 2025 is the strong capital market activities in Hong Kong. Hong Kong at single stock exchange basis actually is the most active IPO market in the world in 2025, and with policy support for Hong Kong to continue as a global financial hub, we expect this trend to continue. So, we are seeing more and more capital market activities happening in Hong Kong and mainland China in the next year. And in terms of thematic opportunities, I already mentioned that opportunities align with the national growth strategy with very heavy innovation and R&D focus. Along these opportunities, we're also heavy recommending investors to focus on thematic opportunities such as anti-evolution, as well as corporate governance reform.That summarizes our New Year outlook for Asia economy as well as China equity market. Chetan, thanks so much for taking the time to talk to me.Chetan Ahya: Great speaking with you, Laura.Laura Wang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Our Head of Research Product in Europe Paul Walsh and Chief European Equity Strategist Marina Zavolock break down the key drivers, risks, and sector shifts shaping European equities in 2026. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of Research Product in Europe.Marina Zavolock: And I'm Marina Zavolock, Chief European Equity Strategist.Paul Walsh: And today – our views on what 2026 holds for the European stock market.It's Tuesday, December 9th at 10am in London.As we look ahead to 2026, there's a lot going on in Europe stock markets. From shifting economic wins to new policies coming out of Brussels and Washington, the investment landscape is evolving quite rapidly. Interest rates, profit forecasts, and global market connections are all in play.And Marina, the first question I wanted to ask you really relates to the year 2025. Why don't you synthesize your, kind of, review of the year that we've just had?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, I'll keep it brief so we can focus ahead. But the year 2025, I would say is a year of two halves. So, we began the year with a lot of, kind of, under performance at the end of 2024 after U.S. elections, for Europe and a decline in the euro. The start of 2025 saw really strong performance for Europe, which surprised a lot of investors. And we had kind of catalyst after catalyst, for that upside, which was Germany's ‘whatever it takes' fiscal moment happened early this year, in the first quarter.We had a lot of headlines and kind of anticipation on Russia-Ukraine and discussions, negotiations around peace, which led to various themes emerging within the European equities market as well, which drove upside. And then alongside that, heading into Liberation Day, in the months, kind of, preceding that as investors were worried about tariffs, there was a lot of interest in diversifying out of U.S. equities. And Europe was one of the key beneficiaries of that diversification theme.That was a first half kind of dynamic. And then in the second half, Europe has kept broadly performing, but not as strongly as the U.S. We made the call, in March that European optimism had peaked. And the second half was more, kind of, focused on the execution on Germany's fiscal. And post the big headlines, the pace of execution, which has been a little bit slower than investors were anticipating. And also, Europe just generally has had weak earnings growth. So, we started the year at 8 percent consensus earnings growth for 2025. At this point, we're at -1, for this year.Paul Walsh: So, as you've said there, Marina, it's been a year of two halves. And so that's 2025 in review. But we're here to really talk about the outlook for 2026, and there are kind of three buckets that we're going to dive into. And the first of those is really around this notion of slipstream, and the extent to which Europe can get caught up in the slipstream that the U.S., is going to create – given Mike Wilson's view on the outlook for U.S. equity markets. What's the thesis there?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, and thank you for the title suggestion, by the way, Paul of ‘Slipstream.' so basically our view is that, well, our U.S. equity strategist is very bullish, as I think most know. At this stage he has 15 percent upside to his S&P target to the end of next year; and very, very strong earnings growth in the U.S. And the thesis is that you're getting a broadening in the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.For Europe, what that means is that it's very, very hard for European equities to go down – if the U.S. market is up 15 percent. But our upside is more driven by multiple expansion than it is by earnings growth. Because what we continue to see in Europe and what we anticipate for next year is that consensus is too high for next year. Consensus is anticipating almost 13 percent earnings growth. We're anticipating just below 4 percent earnings growth. So, we do expect downgrades.But at the same time, if the U.S. recovery is broadening, the hopes will be that that will mean that broadening comes to Europe and Europe trades at such a big discount, about 26 percent relative to the U.S. at the moment – sector neutral – that investors will play that anticipation of broadening eventually to Europe through the multiple.Paul Walsh: So, the first point you are making is that the direction of travel in the U.S. really matters for European stock markets. The second bucket I wanted to talk about, and we're in a thematically driven market. So, what are the themes that are going to be really resonating for Europe as we move into 2026?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, so let me pick up on the earnings point that I just made. So, we have 3.6 percent earnings growth for next year. That's our forecast. And consensus – bottom-up consensus – is 12.7 percent. It's a very high bar. Europe typically comes in and sees high numbers at the beginning of the year and then downgrades through the course of the year. And thematically, why do we see these downgrades? And I think it's something that investors probably don't focus on enough. It's structurally rising China competition and also Europe's old economy exposure, especially in regards to the China exposure where demand isn't really picking up.Every year, for the last few years, we've seen this kind of China exposure and China competition piece drive between 60 and 90 percent of European earnings downgrades. And looking at especially the areas of consensus that are too high, which tend to be highly China exposed, that have had negative growth this year, in prior years. And we don't see kind of the trigger for that to mean revert. That is where we expect thematically the most disappointment. So, sectors like chemicals, like autos, those are some of the sectors towards the bottom of our model. Luxury as well. It's a bit more debated these days, but that's still an underweight for us in our model.Then German fiscal, this is a multi-year story. German fiscal, I mentioned that there's a lot of excitement on it in the first half of the year. The focus for next year will be the pace of execution, and we think there's two parts of this story. There's an infrastructure fund, a 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund in Germany where we're seeing, according to our economists, a very likely reallocation to more kind of social-related spend, which is not as great for our companies in the German index or earnings. And execution there hasn't been very fast.And then there's the Defense side of the story where we're a lot more optimistic, where we're seeing execution start to pick up now, where the need is immense. And we're seeing also upgrades from corporates on the back of that kind of execution pickup and the need. And we're very bullish on Defense. We're overweight the issue for taking that defense optimism and projecting out for all of Europe is that defense makes up less than 2 percent of the European index. And we do think that broadens to other sectors, but that will take years to start to impact other sectors.And then, couple other things. We have pockets of AI exposure in the enabler category. So, we're seeing a lot of strength in those pockets. A lot of catch up in some of those pockets right now. Utilities is a great example, which I can talk about. So, we think that will continue.But one thing I'm really watching, and I think a lot of strategists, across regions are watching is AI adoption. And this is the real bull case for me in Europe. If AI adoption, ROI starts to become material enough that it's hard to ignore, which could start, in my opinion, from the second half of next year. Then Europe could be seen as much more of a play on AI adoption because the majority of our index is exposed to adoption. We have a lot of low hanging fruit, in terms of productivity challenges, demographics, you know, the level of returns. And if you track our early adopters, which is something we do, they are showing ROI. So, we think that will broaden up to more of the European index.Paul Walsh: Now, Marina, you mentioned, a number of sectors there, as it relates to the thematic focus. So, it brings us onto our third and final bucket in terms of what your model is suggesting in terms of your sector preferences…Marina Zavolock: Yeah. So, we have, data driven model, just to take a step back for a moment. And our model incorporates; it's quantum-mental. It incorporates themes. It incorporates our view on the cycle, which is in our view, we're late cycle now, which can be very bullish for returns. And it includes quant factors; things like price target, revisions breadth, earnings revisions breadth, management sentiment.We use a Large Language Model to measure for the first time since inception. We have reviewed the performance of our model over the last just under two years. And our top versus bottom stocks in our model have delivered 47 percent in returns, the top versus bottom performance. So now on the basis of the latest refresh of our model, banks are screening by far at the top.And if you look – whether it's at our sector model or you look at our top 50 preferred stocks in Europe, the list is full of Banks. And I didn't mention this in the thematic portion, but one of the themes in Europe outside of Germany is fiscal constraints. And actually, Banks are positively exposed to that because they're exposed to the steepness – positively to the steepness – of the yield curve.And I think investors – specialists are definitely optimistic on the sector, but I think you're getting more and more generalists noticing that Banks is the sector that consistently delivers the highest positive earnings upgrades of any sector in Europe. And is still not expensive at all. It's one of the cheapest sectors in Europe, trading at about nine times PE – also giving high single digit buyback and dividend yield. So that sector we think continues to have momentum.We also like Defense. We recently upgraded Utilities. We think utilities in Europe is at this interesting moment where in the last six months or so, it broke out of a five-year downtrend relative to the European index. It's also, if you look at European Utilities relative to U.S. Utilities – I mentioned those wide valuation discounts. Utilities have broken out of their downtrend in terms of valuation versus their U.S. peers. But still trade at very wide discounts. And this is a sector where it has the highest CapEx of any sector in Europe – highest CapEx growth on the energy transition. The market has been hesitant to kind of benefit the sector for that because of questions around returns, around renewables earlier on. And now that there's just this endless demand for power on the back of powering AI, investors are more willing to benefit the sector for those returns.So, the sector's been a great performer already year to date, but we think there's multiple years to go.Paul Walsh: Marina, a very comprehensive overview on the outlook for European equities for 2026. Thank you very much for taking the time to talk.Marina Zavolock: Thank you, Paul.Paul Walsh: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

We will examine the volatile 2026 forecast for the U.S. dollar, which Morgan Stanley predicts will decline to a 2021 low by mid-year before staging a significant rebound.Today's Stocks & Topics: Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD), Market Wrap, Defiance AI & Power Infrastructure ETF (AIPO), “US Dollar Volatility: The Choppy Path to Stabilization in 2026”, Stryker Corporation (SYK), Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG), Impinj, Inc. (PI), U.S. Consumer Sentiment, Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index (FNILX), U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS), A-I and Shopping.Our Sponsors:* Check out Incogni: https://incogni.com/investtalk* Check out Invest529: https://www.invest529.com* Check out NordProtect: https://nordprotect.com/investalk* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/INVEST* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

On this Live Greatly podcast episode, Kristel Bauer sits down with "Courage Catalyst" Dr. Margie Warrell, six-time bestselling author of The Courage Gap.  Kristel and Margie discuss how to navigate being an insecure overachiever and how to build courage. Tune in now!  Key Takeaways From This Episode: A look into being an insecure overachiever and how to overcome it Tips to build courage within ourselves A look into Dr. Warrell's book, The Courage Gap ABOUT DR. MARGIE WARRELL Dr. Margie Warrell is a six-time bestselling author, leadership advisor, keynote speaker, and "courage catalyst" bringing deep insight into human and organizational behavior to foster braver leadership and better outcomes.  Dr. Warrell has gained profound insights on managing fear, navigating risk, and embracing change since her childhood in rural Australia. Thirty years of living and working around the world—from Papua, New Guinea to Singapore—have provided her with a globally grounded perspective on navigating risk and overcoming the barriers that stifle potential in individuals and organizations. Drawing on her doctoral research and experience in coaching and Fortune 500 consulting, Dr. Warrell is a trusted advisor across private and public sectors, helping to embolden braver leadership and cultivate forward-thinking "cultures of courage" that counter change resistance, foster learning, and accelerate growth. Organizations such as NASA, Dell, Morgan Stanley, SAP, Novartis, the UN Foundation, HP, Google, and Johnson & Johnson have sought her expertise.  Author of the new book, The Courage Gap, Dr. Warrell is renowned for her ability to bridge the "head and heart" as a writer and speaker. She has also co-authored two other books with Stephen Covey, Ken Blanchard, and Jack Canfield. Her interviews with leaders and luminaries—including Bill Marriott, Richard Branson, and Amy Edmondson of Harvard Business School—inform her thought leadership, which she shares through her global top 1.5% podcast, Live Brave, Forbes column, and leading media outlets such as CNN, Bloomberg, and the WSJ. Dr. Warrell's commitment to "braver leadership for a better world" extends to advising US Congressional Chiefs, McCain Global Fellows, and emerging female leaders in burgeoning democracies. A passionate advocate for women in leadership, she has served on numerous government roundtables, co-led Korn Ferry's Power of All initiative to advance more women to C-suite and board tables, and been Senior Partner in their CEO & Leadership Institute. Connect with Dr. Warrell Order Dr. Warrell's book: https://a.co/d/81cuf2F  Website: https://margiewarrell.com/  Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/margiewarrell/  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/margiewarrell/  About the Host of the Live Greatly podcast, Kristel Bauer: Kristel Bauer is a corporate wellness and performance expert, keynote speaker and TEDx speaker supporting organizations and individuals on their journeys for more happiness and success. She is the author of Work-Life Tango: Finding Happiness, Harmony, and Peak Performance Wherever You Work (John Murray Business November 19, 2024). With Kristel's healthcare background, she provides data driven actionable strategies to leverage happiness and high-power habits to drive growth mindsets, peak performance, profitability, well-being and a culture of excellence. Kristel's keynotes provide insights to "Live Greatly" while promoting leadership development and team building.   Kristel is the creator and host of her global top self-improvement podcast, Live Greatly. She is a contributing writer for Entrepreneur, and she is an influencer in the business and wellness space having been recognized as a Top 10 Social Media Influencer of 2021 in Forbes. As an Integrative Medicine Fellow & Physician Assistant having practiced clinically in Integrative Psychiatry, Kristel has a unique perspective into attaining a mindset for more happiness and success. Kristel has presented to groups from the American Gas Association, Bank of America, bp, Commercial Metals Company, General Mills, Northwestern University, Santander Bank and many more. Kristel has been featured in Forbes, Forest & Bluff Magazine, Authority Magazine & Podcast Magazine and she has appeared on ABC 7 Chicago, WGN Daytime Chicago, Fox 4's WDAF-TV's Great Day KC, and Ticker News. Kristel lives in the Fort Lauderdale, Florida area and she can be booked for speaking engagements worldwide. To Book Kristel as a speaker for your next event, click here. Website: www.livegreatly.co  Follow Kristel Bauer on: Instagram: @livegreatly_co  LinkedIn: Kristel Bauer Twitter: @livegreatly_co Facebook: @livegreatly.co Youtube: Live Greatly, Kristel Bauer To Watch Kristel Bauer's TEDx talk of Redefining Work/Life Balance in a COVID-19 World click here. Click HERE to check out Kristel's corporate wellness and leadership blog Click HERE to check out Kristel's Travel and Wellness Blog Disclaimer: The contents of this podcast are intended for informational and educational purposes only. Always seek the guidance of your physician for any recommendations specific to you or for any questions regarding your specific health, your sleep patterns changes to diet and exercise, or any medical conditions.  Always consult your physician before starting any supplements or new lifestyle programs. All information, views and statements shared on the Live Greatly podcast are purely the opinions of the authors, and are not medical advice or treatment recommendations.  They have not been evaluated by the food and drug administration.  Opinions of guests are their own and Kristel Bauer & this podcast does not endorse or accept responsibility for statements made by guests.  Neither Kristel Bauer nor this podcast takes responsibility for possible health consequences of a person or persons following the information in this educational content.  Always consult your physician for recommendations specific to you.

John Azar breaks down today's capital markets, why deals are failing, and how to raise money, communicate with investors, and scale a commercial real estate fund.In this episode of RealDealChat, Jack Hoss sits down with John Azar, founder of Peak 15 Capital, to discuss the real state of capital markets, the rise of distressed commercial assets, and what operators must do to survive today's environment.John shares his origin story—from structured finance at Morgan Stanley to launching multiple companies, navigating the 2008 crisis, and ultimately raising and managing large funds. He explains the differences between today's market and 2008, why liquidity isn't the problem this time, and why underwriting is causing widespread defaults across multifamily and commercial assets.John also breaks down how to start raising capital, the difference between syndications and funds, where he's seeing the best opportunities (including flex industrial and ground-up development), and why transparent communication is the #1 rule of investor relations.He also covers how he uses AI and automation to save time while still keeping the personal touch required in private equity.What You'll LearnWhy defaults are rising in CRE (and why it's NOT the properties)The biggest difference between 2008 and todayHow to start raising money the right waySyndication vs. fund structures—and when to use eachWhy flex industrial and development deals are trendingHow to spot distressed opportunities in today's marketHow to scale from being the operator to being a fund managerThe crucial role of communication in investor trustHow AI tools save time but can't replace relationshipsWhat Peak 15 Capital is investing in next

In this episode of the Daily, we break down the severe supply chain disruptions occurring as blockades choke Mexico's border trade as farmers and truckers escalate unrest, stranding thousands of truckloads and causing billions in unrealized exports. We also analyze the market outlook as Morgan Stanley sees a supply-side 'spark' for trucking in 2026, predicting that regulatory crackdowns on drivers will significantly tighten capacity and raise rate floors. The conversation turns to safety and compliance, highlighting commentary that the trucking industry needs better crash data to fix critical flaws in how carriers are vetted for liability. Simultaneously, regulators are embracing new technology, as Feds OK automation and say railroads can make fewer visual track safety checks, a move intended to increase efficiency despite union concerns about risk. On the innovation front, we discuss a milestone deployment as the sand must flow: Aurora's driverless fleet hits Permian roads to autonomously haul frac sand for more than 20 hours a day. We close with a look at the intellectual property war in logistics software, where o9 Solutions accuses SAP of trade secret theft in a high-stakes supply chain software dispute, alleging former executives stole thousands of files to boost a competitor's AI capabilities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Are we approaching a paradigm shift…where the conversation elevates from “quantity” to “quality” of weight loss? And if true…what could that mean for “muscle health” CPG products, which have benefitted greatly from the current GLP-1 market dynamics? The first wave of GLP-1 receptor agonists, which I'm dubbing the “quantity” paradigm, has been nothing short of revolutionary…with Wegovy Ozempic and Zepbound Mounjaro demonstrating significant weight loss, often exceeding reported data from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly clinical trials respectively. This unprecedented efficacy fueled a massive surge in demand and Morgan Stanley projects annual GLP-1 sales will soon become the biggest drug class in history. However, the initial conversation was dominated by how much weight could be (and how quickly it was) lost. Therefore, as these medications became more widely used…critical concern emerged surrounding how a significant portion of the lost weight was not just fat but also valuable lean body mass. But this concern has catalyzed the move toward a next wave in the GLP-1 market, which I'm dubbing the “quality” paradigm…where the focus is on what kind of weight is being lost. Recognizing that health is about more than just a number on a scale, the shifted goal would now be (still) maximizing fat mass reduction but while simultaneously preserving, or even enhancing, lean mass. Also, the “quality” paradigm emphasizes an integrated approach to weight management…as patients seek outcomes that support an active, healthy lifestyle. Accordingly, many CPG companies (explicitly those positioned across the intersecting categories of food, beverage, and dietary supplements) have progressively adapted to support the specific nutritional needs of individuals prescribed GLP-1 medications. In fact, my introductory statement referred to how these GLP-1 market dynamics have been beneficial to certain CPG products (particularly ones aiding in “muscle health”). Also, just to clarify my definition of “muscle health” CPG products that are benefitting greatly from current GLP-1 market dynamics…I'm mainly talking about protein (the tried-and-true nutritional cornerstone of building muscle), but also creatine (a natural fuel source for muscles) and HMB (that helps protect muscle mass). Though, if we want to fully understand any potential “muscle health” CPG categorical impacts stemming from next-gen pharmaceutical innovation aimed at improving long-term metabolic health and functional outcomes. According to analysts at TD Cowen, combination treatments designed to help individuals preserve muscle while losing weight with popular GLP-1 drugs by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly could generate more than $30 billion in sales by 2035. And maybe the most closely watched mid-stage drug trials have revolved around bimagrumab, which is a muscle-preserving drug that was part of an almost $2 billion Eli Lilly acquisition from mid-2023. Regardless of possible regulatory challenges still remaining, my strong conviction centers around eating less (with the help of current GLP-1 medications) can only do so much to better your health…thus “weight loss while maintaining muscle mass” is far too important for long-term health outcomes. Accordingly, these will become the next holy grail of obesity treatment (as we move closer to the 2030s). And if that prediction is directionally correct (which I believe is highly probable), it means eating/drinking culture will be reshaped further, accelerating a pivot toward nutrient density and functional benefits!

In this episode of the Daily, we break down the severe supply chain disruptions occurring as blockades choke Mexico's border trade as farmers and truckers escalate unrest, stranding thousands of truckloads and causing billions in unrealized exports. We also analyze the market outlook as Morgan Stanley sees a supply-side 'spark' for trucking in 2026, predicting that regulatory crackdowns on drivers will significantly tighten capacity and raise rate floors. The conversation turns to safety and compliance, highlighting commentary that the trucking industry needs better crash data to fix critical flaws in how carriers are vetted for liability. Simultaneously, regulators are embracing new technology, as Feds OK automation and say railroads can make fewer visual track safety checks, a move intended to increase efficiency despite union concerns about risk. On the innovation front, we discuss a milestone deployment as the sand must flow: Aurora's driverless fleet hits Permian roads to autonomously haul frac sand for more than 20 hours a day. We close with a look at the intellectual property war in logistics software, where o9 Solutions accuses SAP of trade secret theft in a high-stakes supply chain software dispute, alleging former executives stole thousands of files to boost a competitor's AI capabilities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What if the fatigue, brain fog, or stubborn symptoms you've been brushing off are actually your body's way of waving a red flag—one that could completely change your health if you knew how to read it? That's exactly what happened to me a few years ago. I was stuck in a cycle of stress, exhaustion, and mystery symptoms I couldn't quite name—until today's guest stepped in. Check out The Being Collective here: http://jennakutcher.com/being  Brigid Titgemeier is a Functional Medicine Registered Dietitian and founder of BeingBrigid Functional Nutrition. She and her team have helped more than 25,000 people—everyone from Fortune 500 CEOs to busy moms—lower inflammation, balance hormones, improve gut health, and actually reclaim energy through evidence-based nutrition and lifestyle strategies.  In this conversation, we're going to talk about the five biggest lessons from my own health journey with Brigid, what's changed in the science of hormone health and nutrition since she was last here, and the exact steps you can take to support your body through stress, perimenopause, detoxification, and more. If you've been feeling tired, foggy, bloated, or depleted and you're tired of trying “healthy” things that don't actually make you feel better, this is for you. Brigid's membership, The Being Collective, gives you the structure, strategy, and support to stop chasing symptoms and finally feel like yourself again. You can learn more and join the next cohort at http://jennakutcher.com/being! Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/tired-foggy-bloated-what-your-body-is-telling-you  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.

Mike Wilson, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, and Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discuss the outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2026 and the most significant themes for retail investors. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Daniel Skelly: And I'm Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Mike Wilson: Today we're going to have a conversation about our views on the U.S. stock market in 2026, and what matters most to retail investors in particular. It's Monday, December 8th at 9am in New York. So, let's get after it. Dan, it's great to see you. We always talk about the markets together. I think this is a great opportunity for us to share those thoughts with listeners. Our view coming into this year is still pretty bullish for 2026. We've been bullish on [20]25 as you have, probably for, you know, similar – maybe some slightly different reasons. I think one of our differentiating views is that we do think inflation is still a major risk for individual investors. And institutional investors, quite frankly, which is why stocks have done so much better. A concept, I think you're well aware of. And I think, you know, the risk for retail is that there's going to be; it's going to be volatile. So, point-to-point, we're still bullish as you are. How are you thinking about managing that point-to-point path? And how are you structuring your portfolio as we go into 2026 with a bullish outlook – but understanding that it's not always going to be smooth. Daniel Skelly: So, like you said, we've also shared this view that next year's going to be positive, albeit there's going to be more volatility. And when I think about the two main risks that retail investors are facing today, one of them is definitely inflation. We're seeing that in services. We're seeing that in housing. We've had the labor market shrink over the recent couple of quarters, so who knows if wage inflation pops up again. But there are ways to definitely hedge against that in an equity portfolio. We think, for instance, owning parts of the AI infrastructure cohort is one of the ways of hedging, whether that be in utilities, pipelines, energy infrastructure in general. These are areas that we think are a necessary hedge against inflation risk. And number two are a positive diversifier. And second key point, Mike, just thinking about that diversification comment. Look, we all know that in many ways the Mag 7 – and the technology strength that we've seen this past year – has driven a fairly concentrated market. I think what people, particularly on the individual side, are recognizing less is just how much AI cuts across many other sectors in parts of the market. And again, we think that risk of over concentration is still out there. And we like the idea of thinking of embedding natural diversification into the equity portfolio. Mike Wilson: Yeah. I mean, it's interesting. Inflation, you know, is part of that story too because AI is somewhat disinflationary or deflationary. I think, you know, investing in things that can drive higher productivity even away from AI can mitigate some of that risk in the economic outlook. But if I think about, you know, the Mag 7 dominance, and just this concentrated market risk, which you spoke about. If inflation re-accelerates next year, which, you know, is one of our core views as the economy improves – doesn't that broaden out the opportunity set? And you know, like there's been this idea that, ‘Oh, you have to own these seven stocks and nothing else.' I mean, part of our view for next year is that we think the market's going to broaden out. How are you set up for that broadening out? And how are you thinking about picking stocks and new themes that can work – that maybe people aren't paying attention to right now? Daniel Skelly: Yeah, it's a great point, Mike. And so, on the first topic, we do think there's broadening, and that's a combination of factors. Number one is just the market becoming more convicted about the Fed cutting path, which we've talked about, and the firm's view reaffirms for next year. Number two is starting to see some of the benefits of deregulation, right, which should impact maybe some of the more cyclical sectors out there – Financials, Energy being two of them. Maybe seeing more M&A activity too as a byproduct of deregulation. And that should bode better for mid- and maybe small caps as well as they receive a M&A premia in the valuations. And I know you've talked about small caps recently in your commentary. But last point I'll make Mike, and it comes back to AI. It almost feels like AI is this huge inflationary ramp at first to get to that deflationary nirvana down the road – with productivity. I think one of the key factors we think about, in terms of a bottom-up perspective, which is what we focus on in across the portfolio, is definitely pricing power. Who owns the pricing power and the key data and the key AI adoption outlook in order to absorb all the different tools and technology diffusion we've seen in the last three years. And that's going to play out, Mike, as you well know, across a variety of sectors and themes. So, agreed, we should see broadening for all those varying reasons. Mike Wilson: So, I mean, there are a couple areas I think, where we overlap. Financials…Daniel Skelly: Yep. Mike Wilson: Industrials, Healthcare, some of the themes that I think we both; we share our bullish views. And what do you think those areas are, within those sectors? You think that you have a differentiated view maybe than the consensus being Financials, Industrials, Healthcare? That the market may be missing, which offers more upset? Daniel Skelly: Sure. I'll start with Financials, which has been an overweight call for us for some time, as I know it has for you as well. And I think that kind of cyclical re-acceleration in the economy is one part. I think the Fed cutting is another part. I think deregulation is clearly another driver. Fourth Capital Markets recovery, which we have seen now. We had a little bit of a technical lull with the government shutdown in terms of filings and issuance, but we see all of the pipeline indicators, indicating green lights for next year in terms of recovery. I think the one thing I would argue that I've observed in looking at all of our vast data sets is that despite all these different bullish factors, this still maybe has been a theme or a sector that investors have traded in and out of, right? I don't think I've even seen like a real strong, consistent overweight. So, I think number one, that's an opportunity. And last point is, listen, there's different sub-sector bifurcation going on, as you know, within the industry, whereas money centers and large banks are performing really well. The same is not the case of regionals and alts managers. And there are varying reasons for that. But we would even argue, Mike, there could be catchup trades within the sector next year. Mike Wilson: Yeah, I would agree on that. I mean, the regional over money centers and actually regionals over alt managers, because I mean – I think the Treasury Secretary has talked about this, you know. Trying to get the regulated banking system kind of back in the game may actually be an opportunity to take share back from some of those alt managers, which have actually done quite well. What about on Healthcare? We upgraded that back in the summer. I think you've been constructive on parts of Healthcare, right. Wwhat do you think people are missing there and why could that be a good sector for next year? Daniel Skelly: Yeah. We were definitely, I'll say, earlier than you and wrong. You had really good timing in terms of your Healthcare upgrade last summer. And look, the sector was out of favor for two years. What we think we observed in the kind of July-August period is: First and foremost, I think we got past the point of maximum policy concern and risk. And ironically, we saw some kind of nominal or surface level deal signed with the government around most favored nation pricing. And it was really, not a lot to write home about. It wasn't as egregious as a policy inflection as some had feared. So, I think that was the first key catalyst. Second, we just saw a really good revisions breadth. And I know this is a comment you make a lot in your work. But we saw across big pharma, tools and life science, medical technology, and devices. We saw really good positive earnings revisions coming out of third and even starting the second quarter. Thirdly, I think if you're talking about an M&A in capital markets recovery, you can't not talk about Healthcare. I think that's a space that'll be ripe for deal making. And then just fourth, right? Look, as the market broadens out, and as people are stopping or maybe slowing the crowding and the key leadership, they're going to go again from AI enablers to AI adopters. And we think AI is going to be a vector that cuts across the Healthcare industry in a really positive way. Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, the efficiencies that are, you know, possible in the Healthcare sector seem immense. I mean, it, it appears to me that that's going to be an area where there's probably some new solutions, some new companies we don't even know about yet. So, to me that's a very exciting area that's been dormant for quite a while. What about Consumer, Dan? It's been this K economy. It's been very bifurcated, you know, high-end versus middle-income, lower-income. I mean, what are the themes within consumer that you're finding in putting to work in your portfolio? Daniel Skelly: Yeah. We've talked a lot, Mike, in the last year or so about playing Consumer platforms, particularly domestically oriented versus global consumer brands. And there's a couple of key drivers behind that. But first, when you look at what's going on in consumer land, and Simeon Gutman's been a really good, kind of, analyst looking at this theme over time. In many ways it's starting to resemble the Mag 7 in terms of winner take all phenomena. If you look at some of the major consumer big box platforms, they're taking 50- 60 percent of share of total retail sales. Just a couple of companies. So, number one, we're really focused on platforms where market share gains, free cash flow and revenue – recurring revenue – in particular, are leading to even stronger competitive moats, particularly in a capital-intensive industry. And what we've observed about retail is that as those leaders in big box areas take more share, they can reinvest that winning capital in their advertising growth in their online channel and widen their moats even more. Secondly though, in order to have a positive theme, I've always said you got to fund it from somewhere. And so, what we've observed again over the last year or so is – when I think about some of the even highest quality global brands they've suffered seeing less traction in China. And that's amid less of a willingness from Chinese consumers to own American and European brands. There's a lot to that, but I think culturally, obviously the trade war, the AI war for prominence leading to maybe some of that lack of cultural traction. Secondly, we've also, I think, started to see the growth of AI tools start to weigh on established brands. I think what makes a brand cool and the barriers to entry in terms of creating brands is going to go down in the future because of AI influencing and advertising tools. And so, simply put, we continue to like, Mike, the big box consumer platforms across, clothing and food, housing, across e-commerce. That continues to be one of our higher conviction themes. Mike Wilson: All right, Dan, I want to come back to, kind of, AI infrastructure. I mean, AI spending has been the big, big theme. But there's other types of infrastructure spend and CapEx. It's been dormant, quite frankly, and with the [One] Big Beautiful Bill [Act] perhaps incentivizing some of that. How does that play into your thought process around other industrial stocks that could benefit? Daniel Skelly: Absolutely, Mike. You cited the AI infrastructure spending. We think continues kind of unimpeded going into next year. Number two, we think the Fed cutting, just creating better financing conditions in terms of bigger projects. You mentioned as well, the fiscal incentives. And look, I think Chris Snyder has been spot on the last year or so talking about reshoring production wins coming back to the U.S. I don't think this is certainly as cognizant on the – or on the minds of individual investors. Maybe not even institutional investors. But the U.S. is winning manufacturing production share and has been for some time. And we've seen that no doubt ramp up post the announcement of the [One] Big Beautiful Bill {Act]. No doubt. But we think that has implications, Mike, for stocks and stock picking within what we would call, kind of, shorter cycle themes. And I think whether that be in Logistics and Transports or HVAC or some of the Non-Resi, Non-Datacenter related verticals. There are a whole bunch of stocks that have been kind of dormant for two to three years as we've been in this ISM recession that we think could certainly wake up next year as things broaden out. Mike Wilson: Yeah, we would agree with that. And I guess lastly, you know, there's always this Johnny come lately, you know, fear factor of, ‘Well … stocks are up a ton. My neighbor's bragging how much money they're making. So, I must have missed it all.' And I think embedded within that is this fear of valuation. The valuations are now very rich. What's your response to individual clients about – it's not too late, they haven't missed it. It's still a bull market. In fact, we would argue a new bull market began in April with a new economic cycle. What is your response to those folks who have that angst? Daniel Skelly: Two things. One is the market today looks totally different than it did in the past, and AI is no doubt one big part of that. The composition of the market in many ways is higher quality, less debt, more recurring revenue. Big call option on productivity coming from AI earnings, power, et cetera. So, we think the market should trade at richer levels than it did in the past, point number one. Point number two, we would say whereas most people say time is your friend – for individual investors, they would also say valuation is no short term or short run indicator, but it's the best long run indicator. And looking at today's, again, extended levels of valuation relative to history – they would say that's not going to play out well over the long run. I would actually take the other side of that. I think that the earnings and the economic potential unleashed not just from AI, but some of these fiscal and monetary policies could create tremendous margin earnings potential in the long run. And so, I think today we're looking at a level of multiples that appears artificially high. And based on what could be a big earnings inflection point in that multi-year timeframe could frankly just be superficially high. Mike Wilson: Well, Dan, it's always great to get your perspective. I always enjoyed chatting with you. Daniel Skelly: Likewise. Mike Wilson: Thanks for coming on the show and sharing it with our listeners. It's great to see you. Daniel Skelly: Thanks Mike. Mike Wilson: And thanks to our listeners. Thanks for tuning in and let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

In a CNBC Exclusive: David Faber interviewed Paramount Skydance Chairman & CEO David Ellison, whose company announced a tender offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 per share in cash. The hostile offer comes after Netflix won a bidding war and agreed to buy Warner Bros. assets. Ellison explained why he believes Paramount's offer is superior to that of Netflix, better for WBD shareholders and Hollywood — and more likely to pass regulatory muster. He also sounded off about the WBD sale process. David, Sara Eisen and Michael Santoli discussed stocks' upward momentum ahead of this week's Fed rate decision. Also in focus: IBM's $11 billion deal to acquire Confluent, Morgan Stanley's new Tesla analyst downgrades the stock.Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

IBM Corp. (IBM) is stepping up its standing in the A.I. race through a new acquisition. Diane King Hall explains how its $11 billion purchase of Confluent (CFLT) aims to up IBM's positioning in the evolving tech landscape. Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla (TSLA) as it sees its non-auto catalysts priced into the stock. On the retail space, Diane talks about Truist's upgrade on Five Below (FIVE). ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Arthur Breitman, the co-founder of Tezos, is a computer scientist and entrepreneur. Arthur has a background in mathematics and computer science, and prior to the Tezos project, he worked in quantitative finance at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and as a research engineer at Google and Waymo. Arthur graduated from the École Polytechnique and the Courant Institute of NYU where he studied applied mathematics. Arthur is a member of the Tezos Foundation Council and is also a director at Trilitech, a London-based adoption team for the Tezos blockchain. In this conversation, we discuss:- Tokenized uranium - Quantum's threat to Bitcoin - Deep dive on Tezos blockchain - Proof-of-stake is the best consensus - There is no PMF for security on blockchains - The emergence of Tezos as the artists' blockchain - EVM compatibility layer - 19 upgrades without a hard fork - The Data Availability Layer deep dive - The future of Tezos TezosX: @tezosWebsite: tezos.comLinkedIn: TezosArthur BreitmanX: @ArthurBLinkedIn: Arthur Breitman---------------------------------------------------------------------------------This episode is brought to you by PrimeXBT.PrimeXBT offers a robust trading system for both beginners and professional traders that demand highly reliable market data and performance. Traders of all experience levels can easily design and customize layouts and widgets to best fit their trading style. PrimeXBT is always offering innovative products and professional trading conditions to all customers.  PrimeXBT is running an exclusive promotion for listeners of the podcast. After making your first deposit, 50% of that first deposit will be credited to your account as a bonus that can be used as additional collateral to open positions. Code: CRYPTONEWS50 This promotion is available for a month after activation. Click the link below: PrimeXBT x CRYPTONEWS50FollowApple PodcastsSpotifyAmazon MusicRSS FeedSee All

Jakob Oftebro (Black Crab, Lillyhammer) joins Son of a Binge host Reshma Gopaldas to talk all about his role as media mogul, Jan Stenbeck in Vanguard, which is being hailed as the Swedish Succession. Imagine if Kendall Roy, Shiv Roy, Roman Roy, and Connor Roy were actually competent. What'd you get is Jan Stenbeck. Based on the true story of the Stenbeck family empire, Oftebro leads the cast.Vanguard is streaming now on Viaplay.Also starring: Zoe Boyle (Merrill McCloud), Irene Lindh (Märtha Stenbeck), Malin Crépin (Margaretha af Ugglas), Julia Marko Nord (Elisabeth Silfverstolpe), Iggy Malmborg (Oskar), Nils Wetterholm (Marcus).Son of a Binge production credits:Hosted by: Reshma Gopaldas (TW: @reshingbull, IG @reshmago)Artwork by: Laura Valencia (IG @iamlauravalencia)Music by: Kevin Calaba (IG @airlandsmusic)Show Description (from Viaplay):Vanguard tells the story of an unlikely media mogul and trailblazer of technological reform, torn between passion and duty. It's a tale of fearless entrepreneurship, a desire to change the world — and a sibling rivalry in a powerful family fractured by old wounds. At 35, Jan Stenbeck appears to have it all: a prestigious career at Morgan Stanley, a glamorous life in New York, and a budding romance with American socialite Merrill McCloud. But when tragedy strikes his family in Sweden, he's suddenly thrust into a leadership role at Kinnevik, the family's industrial empire. Armed with bold ideas from the U.S., Jan has no interest in continuing the legacy of steel and forestry. Instead, he launches a radical transformation, turning the conservative conglomerate into a telecom and media powerhouse. What follows is a high stakes battle between tradition and innovation, as Jan's vision clashes with his siblings' resistance to change. His relentless drive reshapes the Nordic media and telecom landscape: he breaks Sweden's telephone monopoly, launches TV3 - Scandinavia's first commercial channel - and pioneers' strategies that inspire Rupert Murdoch's Sky TV model and lay the groundwork for Vodafone's rise. At his peak, Jan is worth 800 million dollars, founds 20–30 companies annually, and helps shift Sweden from a traditional industrial society into a leader in global communications. But his meteoric rise comes at a cost. Haunted by loneliness and broken family ties, Jan's life proves as turbulent as it is transformative. Send us a text, let us know what shows and guests you want us to cover.

Live from the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference, our analysts discuss how AI is reshaping the future of shopping in the U.S.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. We're coming to you live from Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer and Retail Conference in New York City, where we have more than 120 leading companies in attendance. Today's episode is the second part of our live discussion of the U.S. consumer and how AI is changing consumer companies. With me on stage, we have Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics team, Simeon Guttman, our U.S. Hardlines, Broad Lines, and Food Retail Analyst, and Megan Clap, U.S. Food Producers and Leisure Analyst. It's Friday, December 5th at 10am in New York. So, Simeon, I want to start with you. You recently put out a piece assessing the AI race. Can you take us through how you're assessing current AI implementation? And can you give us some real-world examples of what it looks like when a company significantly integrates AI into their business? Simeon Gutman: Sure. So, the Consumer Discretionary and Staples teams went to each of their covered companies, and we started searching for what those companies have disclosed and communicated regarding their AI. In some cases, we used AI to do this search. But we created a search and created this universe of factors and different ways AI is being implemented. We didn't have a framework until we had the entire universe of all of these AI use cases. Once we did, then we were able to compartmentalize them. And the different groups; we came up with six groups that we were able to cluster. First, personalization and refined search; second, customer acquisition; third product innovation; fourth, labor productivity; fifth, supply chain and logistics. And lastly, inventory management. And using that framework, we were able to rank companies on a 1 to 10 scale. Across – that was the implementation part – across three different dimensions: breadth, how widely the AI is deployed across those categories; the depth, the quality, which we did our best to be able to interpret. And then the last one was proprietary initiatives. So, that's partnerships, could be with leading AI firms. So that helped us differentiate the leaders with others, not necessarily laggards, but those who were ahead of in the race. In some cases, companies that have communicated more would naturally scream more, so there is some potential bias in that. But otherwise, the fact pattern was objective. Walmart has full scale AI deployment. They're integrated across their business. They've introduced GenAI tools. That's like their Sparky shopping assistant. As well as integrated to in-store features. They talked about it. It's been driving a 25 percent increase in average shopper spend. They've recently partnered with OpenAI to enable ChatGPT powered Search and Checkout, positioning where the company, where the customer is shopping. They're also layering on augmented reality for holiday shopping, computer vision for shelf monitoring. LLMs for inventory replenishment. Autonomous lifts, the list goes on and on. But it covers all the functional categories in our framework. Michelle Weaver: And how about a couple examples of the ways companies are using these? Any interesting real world use cases you've seen so far? Simeon Gutman: So, one of them was in marketing personalization, as well as in product cataloging. That was one of the more sided themes at this conference. So, it was good timing. So, the idea is when product is staged on a company's website; I don't think we all appreciate how much time and many hours and people and resources it takes to get the correct information, to get the right pictures and to show all the assortment – those type of functions AI is helping enable. And it sounds like we're on the cusp of a step change in personalization. It sounds like AI, machine learning or algorithm driven suggestions to consumers. We didn't get practical use cases, but a lot of companies talked about the deployment of this into 2026, which sounds like it's something to look forward to. Michelle Weaver: And Megan, how would you describe AI adoption in your space in terms of innings and what kind of criteria are you using to assess the future for AI opportunity and potential? Megan Clapp: Yeah, I would say; I'd characterize adoption in the Food and broader Staples space today is still relatively early innings. I think most companies are still standing up the data infrastructure, experimenting with various tools. We're seeing companies pilot early use cases and start to talk about them, and that was evident in the work we did with the note that Simeon just talked about. And so, the opportunity, I think, going ahead, lies in kind of what we see in terms of scaling those pilots to become more impactful. And for Staples broadly, and Food, you know, ties into this. I think, these companies start with an advantage and that they sit on a tremendous amount of high frequency consumption data. So, the data availability is quite large. The question now is, you know, can these large organizations move with speed and translate that data into action? And that's something that we're focused on when we think about feasibility. I think we think about the opportunity for Food and Staples broadly as we'd put it into kind of two areas. One is what can they do on the top line? Marketing, innovation, R&D, kind of the lifeblood of CPG companies, and that's where we're seeing a lot of the early use cases. I think ultimately that will be the most important driver – driving top line, you know, tends to be the most important thing in most consumer companies. But then on the other side, there are a lot of cost efforts, supply chain savings, labor productivity. Those are honestly a bit easier to quantify. And we're seeing real tangible things come out of that. But overall I think the way we think about it is the large companies with scale and the ability to go after the opportunity because they have the scale and the balance sheet to do so – will be winners here, as well as the smaller, more nimble companies that, you know, can move a little bit faster. And so that's how we're thinking about the opportunity. Michelle Weaver: Can you give us also just a couple examples of AI adoption that's been successful that you've seen so far? Megan Clapp: Yeah, so on the top line side, like I said, kind of marketing innovation, R&D. One quick example on the Food side. Hershey, for example, they're using algorithms to reallocate advertising spend by zip code, based on the real time sell through. So, they can just be much more targeted and more efficient, honestly, with that advertising spend. I think from an innovation perspective too, these companies are able to identify on trend things faster and incorporate that and take the idea to shelf time down significantly. And then on the cost side, you know, General Mills is a company is actually relatively, far ahead, I'd say, in the AI adoption curve in Staples broadly. And what they've done is deployed what they call digital twins across their network, and it has improved forecast accuracy. They've taken their historical productivity savings from 4 percent annually to 5 percent. That's something that's structural. So, seeing real tangible benefits that are showing up in the PNL. And so, I think broadly the theme is these companies are using AI to make faster, and more precise decisions. And then I thought, I'd just mention on the leisure side, something that I felt was interesting that we learned from Shark Ninja yesterday at the conference is – when asked about the role of Agentic AI in future commerce, thinks it'll be huge was how he described; the CEO described it. And what they're doing actively right now is optimizing their D2C website for LLMs like ChatGPT and Gemini. And his point was that what drives conversion on D2C today may not ultimately be what ranks on AI driven search. But he said the expectation is that by Christmas of next year, commerce via these AI platforms will be meaningful; mentioned that OpenAI is already experimenting with curated product transactions. So, they're really focused on optimizing their portfolio. He thinks brands will win; but you have got to get ahead of it as well. Michelle Weaver: And that's great that you just brought up Agentic commerce. We've heard about it quite a bit over the past couple of days, Simeon. And I know you recently put out a big piece on this theme. Agentic commerce introduces a lot of possibility for incremental sales, but it also introduces the possibility for cannibalization. Where do you see this shaking out in your space? Are you really concerned about that cannibalization possibility? Simeon Gutman: Yeah, so the larger debate is a little bit of sales cannibalization and a potential bit of retail media cannibalization. So, your first point is Agentic theoretically opens up a bigger e-commerce penetration and just more commerce. And once you go to more e-commerce, that could be beneficial for some of these companies. We can also put the counter argument of when e-commerce came, direct-to-consumer type of selling could disintermediate the captive retailer sales again. Maybe, maybe not. Part of this answer is we created a framework to think about what retailers can protect themselves most from this. Two of them; two of the five I's are infrastructure and inventory. So, the more that your inventory is forward position, the more infrastructure you have; the AI and the agent will still prioritize that retailer within that network. That business will likely not go elsewhere. And that's our premise. Now, retail media is a different can of worms. We don't know what models are going to look like. How this interaction will take place? We don't know who controls the data. The transactions part of this conference is we were hearing, ‘Well, the retailers are going to control some of the data and the transaction.' Will consumers feel comfortable giving personal information, credit card to agents? I'm sure at some point we'll feel comfortable, but there are these inertia points and these are models that are getting worked out today. There's incentives for the hyperscalers to be part of this. There's incentive for the retailers to be part of it. But we ultimately don't know. What we do know is though forward position inventory is still going to win that agent's business if you need to get merchandise quickly, efficiently. And if it's a lot of merchandise at once. Think about the largest platforms that have been investing in long tail of product and speed to getting it to that consumer. Michelle Weaver: And Arunima, I want to bring this back to the macro as well. As AI adoption starts to ramp the labor market then starts to get called into question. Is this going to be automation or is it going to be augmentation as you see a ramp in AI adoption? So how are your expectations for AI being factored into your forecast and what are you expecting there? Arunima Sinha: There are two ways that we think about just sort of AI spending mattering for our growth forecasts. One part is literally the spend, the investment in the data centers and the chips and so on. And then the other is just the rise in productivity. So, does the labor or does the human capital become more productive? And if we sum both of those things together, we think that over 2026 – [20]27, they add anywhere between 40-45 basis points to growth. And just to put things in perspective, our GDP growth estimate for the end of this year in 2026 is 1.8 percent. For 2027, it's 2.0 percent. So, it's an important part of that process. In terms of the labor market itself, the work that you have led, as well as the work that we've been doing – which is this question about adoption at the macro level, that's still fairly low. We look at the census data that tracks larger companies or mid-size companies on a monthly basis to say, ‘How much did you use AI tools in the last couple of weeks.' And that's been slowly increasing, but it's still sort of in the mid-teens in terms of how many companies have been using as a percentage. And so, we think that adoption should continue to increase. And as that does, for now, we think it is going to be a compliment to labor. Although there are some cohorts within sort of demographic cohorts in terms of ages that are probably going to be disproportionately impacted, but we don't think that that's a sort of near term 2026 story. Michelle Weaver:  Well, thank you all for joining us and please follow Thoughts on the Market wherever you listen to podcasts. Thank you to our panel participants for this engaging discussion and to our live and podcast audiences. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Live from the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference in New York, our analysts discuss the latest macro trends and pressures impacting the U.S. consumer.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. We're coming to you live from Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer and Retail Conference in New York City, where we have more than 120 leading companies in attendance. Today's episode is the first in a two-part special focused on the consumer where we'll focus on the K economy and the health of the U.S. Consumer. Tomorrow for the next episode, we'll turn our attention to AI. My colleagues and I are eager to dig into this discussion. With me on stage, we have Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics team, Simeon Guttman, our U.S. Hardlines, Broad Lines, and Food Retail Analyst, and Megan Clap, U.S. Food Producers and Leisure Analyst.It's Thursday, December 4th at 10:00 AM in New York. So, to start, I want to go through the health of the consumer. That's of course been a theme that's been on display at the conference today. And 2025 has really been a year of mixed signals. But overall spending has held up while inflation has weighed on confidence, especially among lower- and middle-income households. Arunima, I want to start with you on the macro front as we head into year end. How would you describe the overall state of the consumer? What are you expecting in terms of real wage growth and spending? Arunima Sinha: If we'll just look at the rearview mirror in terms of Q1 through Q3, this year spending growth on a real basis has been holding up. So, in the first half of this year, about 1.5 percent on average. For the third quarter, given the data that we do now have in hand, we're tracking about 3 percent, quarter-on-quarter, on a real basis. But I think it is important to emphasize that this is already a step down than the numbers that we were seeing last year. So, in 2024 on these Q-on-Q numbers, we were running somewhere between 3.9-4 percent. So there already has been some slowdown. The recurring theme that we've had this year is how are the drivers of consumption going to weigh on different cohorts? And so, how is the labor market going away and how are wealth effects going to play out? And that, sort of, tied in squarely with the narrative that we've been emphasizing this whole year, which is that for the upper income cohorts, those net wealth effects have been very, very supportive. $50 trillion in net wealth that's been created just over the last three years. And that has continued for this year as well. And so, meanwhile the labor market has downshifted and that's had a read through into both just nominal wage growth as well as real wage growth. So, for example, on a three-month, three-month basis, that real wage growth, after we've adjusted for the nominal for inflation, has slowed down essentially to stall speed. It used to run, somewhere between 2-2.5 percent, in the first part of this year. And that we think is going to have a read through as we go into this upcoming quarter of Q4, as well as in the first quarter of next year. So just this lagged effect from the slowdown on labor market income is going to weigh; continue to weigh on the middle-income and sort of the upper-, lower- part of the income cohort. So, in terms of our growth forecasts for spending, over this quarter in Q4 and over next quarter in Q1, we are expecting about 1 percent real growth for consumption. That is a two-percentage point step down from where we were in Q3. And then just in terms of disposable income, we're also thinking this particular quarter in Q4 is going to be fairly weak. Michelle Weaver: You spoke a little bit about the different income cohorts there, but I want to double click on that. The K economy has been a really persistent theme as higher income households have benefited from strong market returns. But higher price levels have weighed on lower-income households. What are your expectations for the high versus low-income consumer next year? Arunima Sinha: So next year, we do think that there could be some broadening out in consumption growth. Just overall we have a sequential step up in growth that begins to take place, starting in the second quarter of [20]26. So, we have consumption growth that starts to slowly inch up from about just under 1 percent in the first quarter of [20]26 – all the way up to about 2 percent by the end of the year. What that's going to be driven by, we think that there are going to be some lessening of pressures on the middle-income cohorts. And where is that going to come from? It's going to come from perhaps a still moderate labor market. So, we're not – we don't think we're going to be seeing these big 100,000-150,000 plus jobs being added every month. We're thinking maybe about 60,000 on average per month, for most of next year. But just less policy uncertainty, some boost from the fiscal bill, the fact that monetary policy is going to be heading towards neutral. All of those things should be supportive. Given that the upper-income didn't really slow down this year, we'd also don't think there's going to be a giant acceleration next year. And so, some of that uptick in consumption growth, we think could actually come from the middle-income. And we also think that some of those tariff pressures on inflation are going to start to dissipate after peaking in the first quarter next year. Michelle Weaver: And Simeon, I want to bring the company side into the conversation. What's the early read you've gotten on Black Friday? Expectations into the shopping season were pretty weak. Do you think things could turn out to be better than feared? And are you seeing any differences by income cohort there? Simeon Gutman: The overall take is, it's mixed – to maybe slightly a little worse. I'll answer it in a few different ways. First, the old-fashioned tire kicking that the retail analysts have done during the holiday season. In our hard line, broad line, food retail space mixed to slightly a little worse. In Alex Straton's softline world sounded a little bit better. And then if we combine the takeaways that we've had from companies, at least who presented yesterday, Walmart, Target and some other category killer retailers, it sounded about inline. Underlying trend is relatively stable.I sat on a panel earlier today, with a data aggregator who suggested that the holiday was a little underwhelming. What we don't see; and the underwhelming being at a minus 2 percent run rate for the – I guess, the November to date period, that doesn't include Cyber Monday. What this doesn't account for is the market share shifts. So, one of the ongoing themes across the entire retail landscape has been this big, getting bigger – we say it a lot – but the narrowing funnel of market share. So, the inline updates are probably coming from some of the largest companies, even if the overall holiday was a little underwhelming. Now inline is not anything to write home about. It's harder to get to an inline holiday if you started out below. So inline's okay but not gangbusters. That's probably the right way to characterize it. Michelle Weaver: Megan, same question to you. How is holiday shopping tracking in your space? Have you learned anything surprising about holiday during the conference? Megan Clap: Yeah, I would agree with Simeon relatively inline. I'd say kind of so far so good is what we heard from companies at the conference. We had both Mattel and Shark Ninja product companies that sell into many of the larger retailers that are winning that – that Simeon talked about.Holiday matters a lot for both of them. So, we're still many weeks ahead of us in terms of POS, but Mattel talked about positive POS continuing through the Black Friday season. They left their guidance unchanged today. They're seeing replenishment from their retailers and orders in line with expectations, which was a question just given some of the uncertainty in the landscape. Shark Ninja sells small appliances. They spoke to a strong Black Friday – again, seeing the fourth quarter and holiday play out in line with their expectations. Maybe a couple themes that stood out and one of them was particularly interesting to me. You talked about the K economy, I think, you know, it was very clear the higher end consumer continues to spend and outperform. Value and innovation continue to be things that consumers are looking for. Online seem to do better than in stores. That's what we heard from a lot of companies coming out of last week. And then newer channels like TikTok Shop are coming into the mix and, and brands are seeing, you know, strong growth from those channels as well. Michelle Weaver: And Arunima, I want to wrap this section on Fed policy. How do you expect Fed policy in 2026 to influence consumer spending and recovery, especially for those middle- and lower-income households? Arunima Sinha: We still have the Fed on an easing path into the first half of 2026. So we think 75 basis points and additional policy cuts into next year. But that more or less just takes monetary policy to some estimate of neutral. So, the point is that it's not monetary policy's becoming easier, it is simply just getting too neutral. And so, if we think about the most interest sensitive types of consumption, it's going to come from Housing and it's going to come from Durables. And what our housing strategists are thinking is that given this sort of front end of the curve, our tenure forecast for the middle of next year is still at about 3.75. And so, mortgage rates could dip below 6 percent. So, it's not the front end of the curve. It is that sort of belly of the curve there that's important there. And so there could be some pickup in housing that's going to be important. I think for the middle-income consumer affordability, we think it's still going to be an important concern for housing, but perhaps the middle-income could benefit from some of those lower mortgage rates that are going to come in. Michelle Weaver: ​ Arunima, Simeon, and Megan, thanks for all your insights. And to our live and podcast audiences, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

For nearly a decade, I've sat behind this microphone teaching strategies, sharing systems, and talking about how to grow a business that lasts. But beneath all of that has always been something deeper, and it has taken me years to find the words for what this work has really been about. When I look back, I can see a through line running through every story, every season, and every shift—a consistent truth that connects everything, the invisible thread that makes sense of all the seemingly separate pieces. It's the reason I started this show from a small town in Wisconsin, the same reason I launched a photography business with a $300 Craigslist camera and a heart full of hope. It's the same reason I kept showing up here as I've grown and evolved and pivoted a bunch of times.  I thought I was building a business. What I was really building was a life that felt like mine. This episode is about the truth underneath every strategy, the heartbeat behind every framework, and the through line that has quietly guided it all. Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/building-a-business-vs-building-a-life  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang address themes that are key for markets next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about key investor debates coming out of our year ahead outlook.It's Wednesday, December 3rd at 10:30am in New York. So, Serena, it was a couple weeks ago that you led the publication of our cross-asset outlook for 2026. And so, you've been engaging with clients over the past few weeks about our views – where they differ. And it seems there's some common themes, really common questions that come up that represent some important debates within the market. Is that fair?Serena Tang: Yeah, that's very fair. And, by the way, I think those important debates, are from investors globally. So, you have investors in Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, all kind of wanting to understand our views on AI, on equity valuations, on the dollar.Michael Zezas: So, let's start with talking about equity markets a bit. And one of the common questions – and I get it too, even though I don't cover equity markets – is really about how AI is affecting valuations. One of the concerns is that the stock market might be too high, might be overvalued because people have overinvested in anything related to AI. What does the evidence say? How are you addressing that question? Serena Tang: It is interesting you say that because I think when investors talk about equities being too high, of valuations – AI related valuations being very stretched, it's very much about parallels to that 1990s valuation bubble.But the way I approach it is like there are some very important differences from that time period, from valuations back then. First of all, I think companies in major equity indices are higher quality than the past. They operate more efficiently. They deliver strong profitability, and in general pretty solid free cash flow.I think we also need to consider how technology now represents a larger share of the index, which has helped push overall net margins to about 14 percent compared to 8 percent during that 1990s valuation bubble. And you know, when margins are higher, I think paying premium for stocks is more justified.In other words, I think multiples in the U.S. right now look more reasonable after adjusting for profit margins and changes in index composition. But we also have to consider, and this is something that we stress in our outlook, the policy backdrop is unusually favorable, right? Like you have economists expecting the Fed to continue easing rates into next year. We have the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that could lower corporate taxes, and deregulation is continuing to be a priority in the U.S. And I think this combination, you know, monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, deregulation. That combination rarely occurs outside of a recession. And I think this creates an environment that supports valuation, which is by the way why we recommend an overweight position in U.S. equities, even if absolute and relative valuation look elevated.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, if I'm hearing you right, what I think you're saying is that comparisons to some bubbles of the past don't necessarily stack up because profitability is better. There aren't excesses in the system. Monetary policy might be on the path that's more accommodative. And so, when compared against all of that, the valuations actually don't look that bad.Serena Tang: Exactly.Michael Zezas: Got it. And sticking with the equity markets, then another common question is – it's related to AI, but it's sort of around this idea that a small set of companies have really been driving most of the growth in the market recently. And it would be better or healthier if the equity market were to perform across a wider set of companies and names, particularly in mid- and small cap companies. Is that something that we see on the horizon?Serena Tang: Yes. We are expecting U.S. stock earnings to sort of broaden out here and it's one of the reasons why our U.S. equity strategy team has upgraded small caps and now prefer it over large caps. And I think like all of this – it comes from the fact that we are in a new bull market. I think we have a very early cycle earnings recovery here. I mean, as discussed before, the macro environment is supportive. And Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, growth positive tax and regulatory policies, they don't just support valuations. They also act as a tailwind to earnings.And I think like on top of that, leaner cost structures, improving earnings revisions, AI driven efficiency gains. They all support a broad-based earnings upturn. and our U.S. equity strategy team do see above consensus 2026 earnings growth at 17 percent. The only other region where we have earnings growth above consensus in 2026 is Japan; for both Europe and the EM we are below, which drive out equal weight and slight underweight position in those two indices respectively.Michael Zezas: Got it. And so, since we can't seem to get away from talking about AI and how it's influencing markets, the other common question we get here is around debt issuance related to AI.So, our colleagues put together a report from earlier this year talking about the potential for nearly $3 trillion of AI related CapEx spending over the next few years. And we think about half of that is going to have to be debt financed. That seems to be a lot of debt, a lot of potential bonds that might be issued into the market – which, are credit investors supposed to be concerned about that?Serena Tang: We really can't get away from AI as a topic. And I think this will continue because AI-related CapEx is a long-term trend, with much of the CapEx still really ahead. And I think this goes to your question. Because this really means that we expect nearly another [$]3 trillion of data center related CapEx from here to 2028. You know, while half of the spend will come from operating cash flows of hyperscalers, it still leaves a financing gap of around [$]1.5 trillion, which needs to be sourced through various credit channels.Now, part of it will be via private credit, part of it would be via Asset Backed Securities. But some of it would also be via the U.S. investment grade corporate credit bond space. So, add in financing for faster M&A cycle, we forecast around [$]1 trillion in net investment grade bond issuance, you know, up 60 percent from this year.And I think given this technical backdrop, even though credit fundamentals should stay fine, we have doubled downgraded U.S. investment grade corporate credit to underweight within our cross asset allocation.Michael Zezas: Okay, so the fundamentals are fine, but it's just a lot of debt to consume over the next year. And so somewhat strangely, you might expect high yield corporate bonds actually do better.Serena Tang: Yes, because I think a high yield doesn't really see the same headwind from the technical side of things. And on the fundamentals front, our credit team actually has default rates coming down over the next 12 months, which again, I think supports high yield much better than investment grade.Michael Zezas: So, before we wrap up, moving away from the equity markets, let's talk about foreign exchange. The U.S. dollar spent much of last year weakening, and that's a call that our team was early to – eventually became a consensus call. It was premised on the idea that the U.S. was going to experience growth weakness, that there would also be these questions among investors about the role of the dollar in the world as the U.S. was raising trade barriers. It seemed to work out pretty well. Going into 2026 though, I think there's some more questions amongst our investors about whether or not that trend could continue. Where do we land?Serena Tang: I think in the first half of next year that downward pressure on the dollar should still persist. And you know, as you said, we've had a very differentiated view for most of this year, expecting the dollar to weaken in the first half versus G10 currencies. And several things drive this. There is a potential for higher dollar negative risk premium, driven by, I think, near term worries about the U.S. labor markets in the short term. And as investors, I think, debate the likely composition of the FOMC next year. Also, you know, compression in U.S. versus rest of the world. Rate differentials should reduce FX hedging costs, which also adds incentive for hedging activity and dollar selling. All this means that we see downward pressure on the dollar persisting in the first half of next year with EUR/USD at 123 and USD/JPY at 140 by the end of first half 2026.Michael Zezas: All right. Well, that's a pretty good survey about what clients care about and what our view is. So, Serena, thanks for taking the time to talk with me today.Serena Tang: And thank you for inviting me to the show today.Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Carla Harris started her extraordinary career on Wall Street in 1987 – right before the financial markets crashed that fall. In the ensuing nearly 40 years, she persevered through and overcame challenges, rising to the top leadership echelons. Now the Vice Chairman of Wealth Management and Senior Client Advisor at Morgan Stanley, Carla is also a keynote speaker and author, generously with sharing with others insights into how to be a great executive that leads with courage, clarity and humility. You'll also hear the surprising story of how she incorporates her lifelong love of gospel music into her busy schedule now and why she feels that in non-negotiable. YOU WILL LEARN: How giving up the need to do it all yourself will free you to do what you and only you can do best. How the combination of believing in who you truly are — along with a healthy dose of courage — can help you reach your dreams and goals. The importance of focusing on what you know to be true, instead of thinking about what may or may not happen, and what others may be thinking. MENTIONED IN THIS EPISODE: Lead to Win: How to Be a Powerful, Impactful, Influential Leader in Any Environment by Carla Harris NOTEWORTHY QUOTES FROM THIS EPISODE: “I want to as a leader, make people feel seen, make them feel like they're so important that they're the only person in the room.” — Carla Harris “If you're going to bother to do anything, deliver excellence. Sometimes your best won't be enough, but you can always know you left it all on the floor.” – Carla Harris “Serve, don't sell. If you serve people well, you'll have all the business you could ever want.” – Carla Harris “Your people should never have to wonder where they stand with you. Be straight, be transparent, and close the loop every time.” – Carla Harris “I say, but for the grace of God, I would not be sitting where I'm sitting today. And part of that grace was also not letting me focus on what wasn't happening or what somebody else must be thinking.” — Carla Harris Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our South Asia Energy Analyst Mayank Maheshwari discusses how the unprecedented demand to power AI is set to transform the power industry for years to come.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Mayank Maheshwari: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mayank Maheshwari, Morgan Stanley's South Asia Energy Analyst. Today: how AI and electrification are rewriting the rules of global power. It's Tuesday, December 2nd at 9 pm in Singapore. If you've noticed your electricity bills are climbing and headlines are buzzing with talk of AI, you're not alone. The way we use – and need – power is changing fast, and it's impacting everyone from homeowners to major tech companies. Global power consumption is surging at the fastest pace in over a decade. Annual demand is set to rise by more than one trillion kilowatt-hours every year through 2030, with AI-driven data centers contributing nearly a fifth of that growth. We estimate about [U.S.]$3 trillion investments in datacenters by 2028, with power consumption growth of nearly about 126GW in these three years till [20]28. This is almost as large as Canada's total [annual] power consumption. And in this context, power prices are set to further rise. In 2024 – the latest full-year data available – global power sector investments hit a new high of $1.5 trillion, and consumer power prices have risen by about 15 percent. By 2030, U.S. power markets will account for half of the global data center power consumption. And Asia will also see about a 15 percent spillover of that U.S. hyperscaler demand, which will be also part of why some of the power markets in Asia will get a lot tighter. As power consumption rises, the difference between the price at which electricity is sold and the cost to generate it – also known as power spreads – are likely to rise by nearly 15 percent. This expansion in profit margins could lead to higher earnings forecasts for power generation companies and create $350 billion in value creation through the entire power supply chain. At the same time, years of under-investments in electric grids have led to bottlenecks, sparking a wave of new spending and pushing the industry to rely more on natural gas and energy storage and other new technologies – while also supporting that option of renewable power. In 2024, gas investments hit record highs, and starting in 2026 gas is set to become a new truly global source of new power generation. Looking ahead, natural gas is expected to meet about a fifth of [the] world's new power needs, excluding China. And nuclear energy is well positioned for increased investments; while batteries – which is energy storage – is also getting to get a new set in terms of new investments across datacenters and in markets like China . Moving forward, the power industry faces a multi-decade transformation, marked by unexpected shifts and opportunities. We'll see increased collaboration between fossil and non-fossil fuels, wider adoption of tiered pricing, and a surge in spot market and behind-the-meter sales all driving longer-lasting, elevated power spreads. Gas, nuclear, energy storage, and fuel cell supply chains – especially in Asia and the U.S. – stand to gain from stronger pricing power [and] new growth prospects, while grid operators benefit from higher investment and better returns. On the flip side, pure solar and wind producers may continue to see rising costs in Asia, something we have already seen in [the] U.S. and Europe, as [the] global grid leans more on batteries and steady fossil fuel supplies to balance the requirements of the rising needs of power across the supply chains – in AI as well as domestic utilization of manufacturing. Ultimately, as AI and electrification supercharge power demand, the real challenge isn't just adding renewables. It's about building a resilient, flexible grid and navigating the new economics of energy. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Giving Tuesday has become a global moment to celebrate generosity. But for believers, it can be much more than a once-a-year opportunity to give. It can become a catalyst to cultivate a lifestyle of intentional, joy-filled stewardship all year long.Today, we explore how to give with both heart and wisdom—so that our generosity reflects God's purposes, not merely the moment. Joining the conversation is Al Mueller, founder and CEO of Excellence in Giving and former executive with Morgan Stanley and UBS.Beyond the Moment: What Giving Tuesday Really RepresentsFor Al Mueller, Giving Tuesday is more than a charitable trend—it's an invitation.“Giving Tuesday is a great opportunity to begin acting on generosity,” he says, “but it's also a moment to pause and align with God's purposes.” Al reminds us of Paul's words in 2 Corinthians 9:7: “Each one must give as he has decided in his heart… for God loves a cheerful giver.”In other words, generosity is more than an impulse. It is an act of worship. Giving Tuesday can be a spark, but intentional stewardship is the flame that keeps burning throughout the year.Al summarizes biblical giving with a simple idea: “God gave us both a head and a heart—He didn't say pick one.”Wise stewardship holds both together:The heart expresses compassion, joy, and worship.The head evaluates impact, effectiveness, and alignment with God's purposes.Stewardship looks at the Kingdom outcomes we long to see and asks how we can best contribute to them. Some giving is planned, some spontaneous—but all of it can be intentional.Helping Donors Give With ExcellenceAt Excellence in Giving, Al and his team equip high-capacity givers—often those giving $1 million or more annually—to make well-informed, impactful decisions. They offer research, due diligence, and accountability that help donors shift from reactive to proactive giving.But these principles, Al emphasizes, are not reserved for the ultra-wealthy.“Everyone can do their own homework,” he says. “Everyone can ask good questions. Everyone can give intentionally.”Whether you're giving $50 or $50,000, evaluating ministries wisely matters. Al recommends starting with three core questions:What problem is the ministry trying to solve?What do they believe is the root cause of that problem?What measurable results have they seen?Healthy ministries provide clear reporting, measurable outcomes, and transparent leadership. They welcome questions and view accountability as part of discipleship.Key indicators to review include:Leadership stabilityDonor and staff retentionClear communicationTransparent financial practicesEvidence of life changeStrong ministries don't hide their results—they celebrate them.Red Flags: When to Think TwiceJust as there are markers of strong ministries, there are warning signs that should prompt caution:Vague vision without a clear planEmotional pressure or over-spiritualizing resultsLack of reporting or unwillingness to share outcomesOver-dependence on a single donorRepeated urgent appeals for fundsAl calls vague visions “ministry hallucinations”—dreams without blueprints. Just as you wouldn't build a house without plans, you shouldn't fund ministry without clarity.A Growing Trend: Collaborative GivingOne of the most exciting developments in philanthropy today is collaborative giving—donors pooling resources to make a larger, more strategic impact.Pooling resources:Helps ministries secure larger grantsReduces duplicationSaves ministries' valuable timeStrengthens unity within the body of Christ“This model lets donors and ministries accomplish something bigger together,” Al explains.No donor wants to micromanage, and no ministry seeks to be controlled. But accountability doesn't mean control—it means clarity.Al puts it this way: “Accountability is information given, not control taken.”Trust grows when ministries offer clear plans, measurable results, and honest reporting—what Al calls “a form of blessing” to donors.The Next Generation of GiversYounger donors give differently than their parents do. They are:More global in perspectiveMore results-orientedMore experiential—they want site visits and direct engagementMotivated by conviction rather than obligationPassionate about transparency and impactAl believes this next generation will reshape Christian generosity—mainly as significant wealth transfers occur in the coming decades.Al concludes with a powerful insight: there is a meaningful difference between being generous and being a steward.In the first century, a steward managed the household, finances, and fields on behalf of the master. The steward's job was simple: to know the heart of the master and act accordingly.Stewardship today means:Recognizing God owns it allSeeking His desires for His resourcesGiving with discernmentAiming to hear, “Well done, good and faithful servant.”Generosity is beautiful—but stewardship is a calling.Growing in Intentional GenerosityWhether you're giving on Giving Tuesday or cultivating lifelong generosity, the call is the same: give with joy, wisdom, and purpose.If you want to explore tools to help you give more strategically, you can learn more at ExcellenceInGiving.com. And if you'd like to partner with the mission of FaithFi, visit FaithFi.com/Partner to join us in helping believers integrate faith and financial decisions for the glory of God.On Today's Program, Rob Answers Listener Questions:What are your thoughts on annuities for someone approaching age 70?My wife and I are senior citizens and now have custody of our 10-year-old granddaughter—her father passed away, and her mother isn't involved. We want guidance on setting up a trust for her future. What's the best way to approach this?Resources Mentioned:Faithful Steward: FaithFi's Quarterly Magazine (Become a FaithFi Partner)Excellence in GivingWisdom Over Wealth: 12 Lessons from Ecclesiastes on MoneyLook At The Sparrows: A 21-Day Devotional on Financial Fear and AnxietyRich Toward God: A Study on the Parable of the Rich FoolFind a Certified Kingdom Advisor (CKA)FaithFi App Remember, you can call in to ask your questions every workday at (800) 525-7000. Faith & Finance is also available on Moody Radio Network and American Family Radio. You can also visit FaithFi.com to connect with our online community and partner with us as we help more people live as faithful stewards of God's resources. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

GuestAdam Mizel Co-Founder & CEO US UnitedWebsitehttps://www.us-united.org/About US UnitedUS United is a not-for-profit media collective building unity through storytelling, service, and human connection. Co-founded by business leader Adam Mizel and Sheriff Chris Swanson, the organization works to prove that Americans share common values and can bridge divides through community engagement. Programs include the Sheriff Unity Network, Holiday Giving Spectacular, and monthly 30 For US unity conversations. To take the Unity Pledge, visit us-united.org. Adam Mizel Bio: Adam Mizel's journey from Wall Street to corporate leader to building a grassroots unity movement wasn't exactly planned. After a successful 30-year business career, from Morgan Stanley, to launching private equity firms and hedge funds, to starting and running public and private companies, he found himself screaming at the news during the chaotic days of May 2020. George Floyd had been murdered, the country was in the midst of a pandemic, politicians and pundits amped up the rhetoric and many of us felt that the fabric of the country was ripping apart. At that moment, his wife Taunya delivered the wake-up call: "No one's hearing you if you scream at the TV." That insight sparked his biggest epiphany yet—instead of just making another donation, Adam was going to DO SOMETHING about America's divisions. He did not have a more developed concept than that, but as a serial entrepreneur, Adam was confident he would figure it out. What happened next surprised even him. Doors started opening in ways they never had during his business career. Through a social justice task force formed with CMO leadership organization PTTOW, he met Ken Nwadike, Jr. (the "Free Hugs Guy"), who in turn introduced him to Sheriff Chris Swanson of Flint, Michigan. Chris made global headlines when 3.2 billion people watched as he and his officers took off their riot gear and marched arm-in-arm with George Floyd protesters on May 30, 2020. Flint was one of the few American cities that did not burn that night. Their instant connection led to the co-founding of US United in 2021 and together they have grown it into a movement for unity that is proving that Americans aren't as divided as politicians and media want us to believe.Today, US United has built a network of close to 100 sheriffs committed to bringing unity into their communities. They have reached thousands of families across the country through giving events like the Holiday Spectacular, broken people out of their bubbles with a unity pledge and national online conversations called 30 For US, and just completed a summer cross-country road trip documenting real stories of unity happening at the grassroots level. Adam went from yelling at his TV to building a movement that's challenging the narrative about American division by empowering Americans with the tools they need to reunite our country – and inspiring others along the way. One voice is loud, millions are a movement. SOCIAL MEDIA INFO: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/adammmizel/Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/USUnitedOrgInstagram - https://www.instagram.com/us_united_org/Twitter - https://twitter.com/US_United_Org

Have you ever had a gut feeling that you ignored, only to realize months later you should have listened? Or maybe you're sitting in a decision right now, paralyzed, because you don't know if you can trust yourself anymore? Sheetal Story is a Psychic Medium, Spiritual Grief Support Counselor, and Professional Astrologer, but she's also grounded and business-savvy with a Master's in Coaching and a Business Degree from the University of Alberta. She works with entrepreneurs who are stuck, burned out, or in major life transitions to help them break through the blocks keeping them from their next level. In this conversation, we're talking about the hard stuff. How to know when to pivot versus when to push through. How to stop manifesting the same painful patterns. How to release the guilt of wanting something different than what you built. And how to start listening to your intuition again after years of being told you're wrong. If you've been second-guessing every decision, if you're craving permission to trust yourself, or if you're in a season of transition and you just need someone to tell you it's going to be okay, click play! Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/how-to-trust-your-intuition-again  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.

Our Co-Heads of Securitized Product Research Jay Bacow and James Egan discuss the outlook for mortgage rates and the U.S. housing market in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Jim, why did the cranberry turn red? James Egan: Please enlighten me. Jay Bacow: Because it saw the turkey dressing. Jay Bacow: I hope everybody had a good Thanksgiving. Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Today we're here to talk about our views from mortgage rates in 2026 and how that flows through to our U.S. housing outlook.It's Monday, December 1st at 11:30am in New York.Now, Jay, as we all get over our turkey induced naps over the weekend, how are we thinking about mortgage rates evolving in 2026?Jay Bacow: Well, as you and I discussed previously on this podcast, the Fed cutting rates in and of itself doesn't actually cause the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to come down. However, our rate strategists' forecast for lower rates in the front end should be helpful to where the primary rate ends up this year. And we would also expect some compression between primary mortgage rates and Treasury rates given our bullish outlook for the mortgage asset class. So, our expectation is that the 30-year fixed rate ends 2026 around 5.75 percent.James Egan: Alright, if we get to 5.75, maybe a little bit lower than that in the middle of next year, that's enough to send affordability into a healthier place. But that's a relative term. Affordability is still going to be under pressure, but it will have improved. And it will have improved at a pretty healthy amount from where we were in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was multi-decade levels of challenged.Jay Bacow: All right, Jim, so clearly the mortgage rate coming down does make homes more affordable, but is it enough to cause more homes to actually transact?James Egan: So, the answer is yes, but it's going to be a ‘Yes, but' answer from that perspective. We do think that transaction volumes are going to increase. But to put into context where we sit from a housing market perspective – we already saw a healthy increase in affordability from the fourth quarter of [20]23 through the end of 2024, right? But if we put that affordability improvement in context, we've seen that about 10 times over the past 40 years. The only times where sales responded more tepidly than they just did in 2025 – were in 2009, the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis; and in 2020, when the market really slowed down in the immediate aftermath of COVID. The lock-in effect is still playing a very big role. We do think that this sustained marginal improvement and affordability will help purchase volumes. But this is not what's going to get us to kind of escape velocity. We're calling for about a 3 percent growth in purchase volumes next year. Jay Bacow: Alright. Now, you mentioned this a little bit already, but if there's less lock-in because the mortgage rate has come down, will more people be willing to list their homes for sale? Are we going to get more inventory on the market? James Egan: I think that's the other piece of how we're thinking about housing moving forward. Any improvement we get in affordability from lower mortgage rates is going to be paired with increasing inventory volumes. We've already seen that. Listed inventories are up roughly 30 percent from historic lows in 2023. They're still 20 percent worth below where they were in 2019. So, we're not talking about oversupply at this point. But that increase in listed inventories without a contemporaneous increase in demand is weighed on the pace of home price growth. We started this year at +4 percent nationally. We're below +1.5 percent. We think that any growth and demand will come coincident with the growth in listing volumes. That's going to keep home price appreciation under control. We're only calling for 2 percent growth in HPA next year, 3 percent out in 2027. But the high level thought here is that the housing market is well supported at these levels. Difficult to see big decreases in sales volumes or prices next year. But also going to be difficult to really achieve any more material growth in this low single digits we're calling for. But Jay, as you and I are talking about this outlook with market participants, one question that gets brought up frequently is what else can the administration do, especially on the affordability side, to help with instigating more housing activity. Jay Bacow: In order to really help affordability, given the challenges that you've discussed around the supply and demand issues; then the other aspect of that is just what is the mortgage rate? And if they were to do things that would cause the mortgage rate to come down, that would be helpful. Now, the Fed already has made an announcement that they're going to continue mortgage runoff from their balance sheet. If they ended mortgage runoff, that would've helped. But that window seems to have passed. There's been some discussion from the administration around new types of programs. In particular, there was a lot of headlines around a 50-year program. A 50-year amortization schedule would likely result in a material drop in the monthly payment that the homeowner would make – which would help. However, the total interest payments for that homeowner, depending on exactly where this hypothetical 50-year mortgage rate would price, are probably about double over the life of the loan relative to a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. So, we're not really sure that this product would see a huge amount of upkeep. There's also some technical challenges around whether it meets the definition of a qualified mortgage and some other in the weeds discussions. James Egan: What about all the discussion we're hearing around assumability of mortgages, portability of mortgages? Is there anything there? Jay Bacow: Based on our understanding of contract law, which I have to confess is limited as I am not a lawyer, we don't think you can retroactively make mortgages portable or assumable that were not already portable or assumable. So, you can make new mortgages portable and assumable. Portable as a reminder means that if you have a mortgage, you take it with you to your new house, and assumable means that the mortgage stays with the house. If you sell it to somebody else, they get that mortgage. But realistically, we think this would have to be a new product. And because it would be a new product with new benefits to the homeowner, it would actually probably cause their mortgage rate to be higher, not lower. James Egan: I guess one last question. We're talking about affordability and we're addressing it through interest rates being lower, we're addressing it through the potential for new products to be put out there, even if there are some challenges around that piece of it. But what about just demand for mortgages themselves? You said the Fed might not be a buyer going forward, but are there other pockets of demand for mortgages that could help bring down mortgage rates? Jay Bacow: Sure. So, we expect the GSEs to grow their portfolio next year, that would certainly be helpful. On the margin, we expect them to buy about a little less than a third of the net issuance that comes to the market. We also think that domestic banks could come back to the market and they could help bring the mortgage rates lower. But these changes are going to help mortgage rates by, in the context of maybe an eighth of a point to a quarter of a point at most. It's not a panacea, unfortunately. James Egan: Alright. So, we expect a little bit of an improvement in mortgage rates, a little bit of affordability improvement next year. That should lead to growth in purchase volumes, and I think it will lead to a little bit of growth in home prices. But the housing market is well supported range bound here. Jay Bacow: Jim, pleasure talking to you. And to all our regular listeners, thank you for adding Thoughts on the Market to your playlist. James Egan: Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.Jay Bacow: And as my kids would say, go smash that subscribe button.

Kelly Evans is back in the anchor chair, and while investors are clamoring about the AI trade, she's watching the 10-year yield. We'll debate what its direction means for the markets and the economy. Plus, bitcoin is falling to its lowest level since April, and retail stocks are climbing on Cyber Monday. Morgan Stanley's retail guru joins us with the names he expects to win big this holiday season. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Original Release Date: October 31, 2025Our Japan Financials Analyst Mia Nagasaka discusses how the country's new stablecoin regulations and digital payments are set to transform the flow of money not only locally, but globally.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mia Nagasaka, Head of Japan Financials Research at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. Today – Japan's stablecoin revolution and why it matters to global investors. It's Friday, October 31st, at 4pm in Tokyo. Japan may be late to the crypto market. But its first yen-denominated stablecoin is just around the corner. And it has the potential to quietly reshape how digital money moves across the country and globally. You may have heard of digital money like Bitcoin. It's significantly more volatile than traditional financial assets like stocks and bonds. Stablecoins are different. They are digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to assets such as the yen or U.S. dollar. And in June 2023, Japan amended its Payment Services Acts to create a legal framework for stablecoins. Market participants in Japan and abroad are watching closely whether the JPY stablecoin can establish itself as a major global digital currency, such as Tether. Stablecoins promise to make payments faster, cheaper, and available 24/7. Japan's cashless payment ratio jumped from about 30 percent in 2020 to 43 percent in 2024, and there's still room to grow compared to other countries. The government's push for fintech and digital payments is accelerating, and stablecoins could be the missing link to a truly digital economy. Unlike Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are designed to suppress price volatility. They're managed by private companies and backed by assets—think cash, government bonds, or even commodities like gold. Industry watchers think stablecoins can make digital payments as reliable as cash, but with the speed and flexibility of the internet. Japan's regulatory approach is strict: stablecoins must be 100 percent backed by high-quality, liquid assets, and algorithmic stablecoins are prohibited. Issuers must meet transparency and reserve requirements, and monthly audits are standard. This is similar to new rules in the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong. What does this mean in practice? Financial institutions are exploring stablecoins for instant payments, asset management, and lending. For example, real-time settlement of stock and bond trades normally take days. These transactions could happen in seconds with stablecoins. They also enable new business models like Banking-as-a-Service and Web3 integration, although regulatory costs and low interest rates remain hurdles for profitability.Or think about SWIFT transactions, the backbone of international payments. Stablecoins will not replace SWIFT, but they can supplement it. Payments that used to take days can now be completed in seconds, with up to 80 percent lower fees. But trust in issuers and compliance with anti-money laundering rules are critical. There's another topic on top of investors' minds. CBDCs – Central Bank Digital Currencies. Both stablecoins and CBDCs are digital. But digital currencies are issued by central banks and considered legal tender, whereas stablecoins are private-sector innovations. Japan is the world's fourth-largest economy and considered a leader in technology. But it takes a cautious approach to financial transformation. It is preparing for a CBDC but hasn't committed to launching one yet. If and when that happens, stablecoins and CBDCs can coexist, with the digital currency serving as public infrastructure and stablecoins driving innovation. So, what's the bottom line? Japan's stablecoin journey is just beginning, but its impact could ripple across payments, asset management, and even global finance. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, I'm giving you everything I know about email marketing: the timeless principles that have built my multi-seven-figure business, plus the emerging trends that will keep you ahead through 2026 and beyond. Even though I've talked about the importance of email marketing for the last decade of podcasting, I've never done THIS. A true masterclass; a soup-to-nuts, start-to-finish guide covering why email still works in 2025, how to actually start and grow your list, the emerging trends that are changing everything, and the exact strategies you need to stay ahead. Whether you're at zero subscribers wondering where to even start, or you've got a list but it feels stale and you're not sure what to do with it, or you're doing well but want to level up for what's coming, this episode is for you. And if you want to see how all of this applies specifically to your business type, I'm hosting a FREE live webinar called From Zero Subscribers to an Engaged List of Buyers. Grab your spot now at https://www.growanemaillist.com! Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/the-email-advantage-marketing-strategy Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.

Original Release Date: October 10, 2025Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses how the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history could reshape saving, spending and investment behavior across America.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, a powerful force reshaping the financial lives of millions of Americans: inheritance.It's Friday, October 10th at 10am in New York.Americans are living longer and they're passing on their wealth later. Longevity is one of Morgan Stanley Research's four key themes, and this is an interesting element of longevity. As baby boomers age, they're expected to transfer their wealth to Gen X, millennials and Gen Z to the tune of tens or even hundreds of trillions of U.S. dollars.Estimates vary widely, but the amounts are unprecedented. And so, inheritance isn't just a family milestone; it's becoming an important cornerstone of financial planning and longevity. And understanding who's receiving, expecting, and using their inheritances is key to forecasting how Americans save, spend, and invest.According to our latest AlphaWise survey, 17 percent of U.S. consumers have received an inheritance, and another 14 percent expect to receive one in the future. Younger Americans are especially optimistic. Their expectations split evenly between those anticipating an inheritance within the next 10 years and those expecting it further out.But here's the kicker; income plays a huge role. Only 17 percent of lower income consumers report receiving or expecting an inheritance, but that number jumps to 43 percent among higher income households highlighting a clear wealth divide.What about the size of the inheritance? In our survey, those who received or expect to receive an inheritance fall broadly into three categories. About half reported amounts under $100,000 dollars. For about a third, that amount rose to under $500,000. And then meanwhile, 10 per cent reported an inheritance of half a million dollars or more.Younger consumers tend to report smaller amounts, while inheritance size rises with income. One important thing to remember about our survey though, is it looks more at the average person. We are missing some of those very high net worth demographics in there where I would expect inheritance to rise much higher than half a million.And so, when we think about this, how will recipients use this wealth? That's a really important question. The majority, about 60 percent, say they have or will put their inheritance towards savings, retirement, or investments. About a third say they'll use it for housing or paying down debt. Day-to-day consumption, travel, education and even starting a business or giving to charity also featured in the survey responses – but to a lesser extent.The financial impact of inheritance is significant: 46 percent of recipients say it makes them feel more financially secure; 40 percent cite improvements in savings; and 22 percent associate it with increased spending. Some even report retiring earlier or lightening their workloads.Inheritance trends are shaping consumer behavior and have the power to influence spending patterns across industries. To sum it up, inheritance isn't just a family matter, it's a market mover.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.It's Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won't hit the Fed's 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn't over, but the worst is behind us.So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to modest growth. U.S. consumers start to rebound, but slowly. Tariffs will keep prices firm in the first half of 2026, squeezing purchasing power for low- and middle-income households. These households consume mainly through labor market income, and until inflation starts to retreat, purchasing power should be constrained.Real consumption should rise 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.8 [percent] in 2027 – better, but not booming. The main culprit is a labor market that's still in ‘low-hire, low-fire' mode driven by immigration controls and tariff effects that keep hiring soft. We see unemployment peaking at 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, then easing to 4.5 percent by year-end. Jobs are out there, but the labor market isn't roaring. It'll be hard for hiring to pick up until after tariffs have been absorbed.And when jobs cool, the Fed steps in. The Fed is cutting rates – but at a cost. After two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and October, we expect 75 basis points more by mid 2026, bringing the target range to 3.0-3.25 percent. Why? To insure against labor market weakness. But that insurance comes with a price: inflation staying above target longer. Think of it as the Fed walking a tightrope—lean too far toward jobs, and inflation lingers; lean too far toward inflation, and growth stumbles. For now the Fed has chosen the former.And how does AI fit into the macro picture? It's definitely a major growth driver. Spending on AI-related hardware, software, and data centers adds about 0.4 percent to growth in both 2026 and 2027. That's roughly 20 percent of total growth. But here's the twist: imports dilute the impact. After accounting for imported tech, AI's net contribution falls sharply. Still, we expect AI to boost productivity by 25-35 basis points by 2027, over our forecast horizon, marking the start of a new innovation cycle. In short: AI is planting the seeds now for bigger gains later.Of course, there are risks to our outlook. And let me flag three important ones. First, demand upside – meaning fiscal stimulus and business optimism push growth higher; under this scenario inflation stays hot, and the Fed pauses cuts. If the economy really picks up, then the Fed may need to take back the risk management cuts it's putting in now. That would be a shock to markets. Second, there's a productivity upside – in which case AI delivers bigger productivity gains, disinflation resumes, and rates drift lower. And lastly, a potential mild recession where tariffs and tight policy bite harder, GDP turns negative in early 2026, and the Fed slashes rates to near 1 percent. So in summary: 2026 looks to be a transition year with less drama but more nuance, as growth returns and inflation cools, while AI keeps rewriting the playbook.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Picture this: you're scaling your business without burning out. Actually, let me be more specific—you're scaling with the help of a team that never sleeps, never needs a vacation, and costs you almost nothing. Sound impossible? It's not. And today's guest is here to show you exactly how. Natalie MacNeil is an Emmy Award-winning media entrepreneur, a futurist, and a visionary when it comes to AI and entrepreneurship. She's actively reshaping how we build businesses with her AI Dream Team™, a system of 40+ custom GPTs designed to support every core function of a business. If you've been drowning in the day-to-day, if you're tired of being the bottleneck in your own business, or if you're curious about how to use AI with integrity and strategy, this conversation is going to change how you work. Curious about having an AI Dream Team of your own? Check out https://www.jennakutcher.com/AI! If you embrace your AI partnership, and follow Natalie's proven framework, it will amplify your reach and multiply your impact as a transformational leader. And the more of us using AI ethically and for good, the brighter our collective future will be! Visit https://www.jennakutcher.com/AI to learn more. Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/build-your-ai-dream-team  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.