Podcasts about Morgan Stanley

Our anchors begin today's show with CNBC's Courtney Reagan breaking down Walmart's latest earnings, and streaming service Vudu's Former CEO Alain Rossmann joins with insight on the retail giant's new partnership with Paramount. Then, CNBC's Leslie Picker recaps some of the biggest moves made by hedge funds in Q2 on the heels of last night's 13F filing deadline, and Wedbush Securities Head of Equity Trading Sahak Manuelian offers his thoughts on how smaller tech investors should be positioned. Later, Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring weighs in on Apple's plans to expand advertising on iPhones, and CNBC's Kate Rooney reports on the decline in crypto crimes amid the broader turbulence hitting digital currencies.

Stocks are pausing today after a huge rally off of the June lows, as Chinese & U.S. economic data both weakened more than expected. Is the market rally durable or not? JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have differing views, and we'll get both of their takes. Plus, we'll examine those signs of weakness in the Chinese economy. We'll take a hard look at the impact here & abroad. And, two huge retail names report results tomorrow morning. We'll give you the action, the story and the trade in Walmart & Home Depot in Earnings Exchange.

As inflation persists, economic concerns such as recession rise, and consumer spending patterns begin to shift, is there any evidence to suggest consumers are already trading down to value and discount products? U.S. Softlines Analyst Kimberly Greenberger and Hardlines, Broadlines and Food Retail Analyst Simeon Gutman discuss.-----Transcript-----Kimberly Greenberger: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Kimberly Greenberger, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Softlines Analyst. Simeon Gutman: And I'm Simeon Gutman, Hardlines, Broadlines and Food Retail Analyst. Kimberly Greenberger: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll be discussing shifting consumer spending patterns amid persistent inflation and concerns about the economy. It's Friday, August 12th, at 11 a.m. in New York. Kimberly Greenberger: As our listeners are no doubt aware, many retail segments were big pandemic beneficiaries with record sales growth and margins for 2+ years. But now that spending on goods is normalizing from high levels and consumers are facing record high inflation and worrying about a potential recession, we're starting to see signs of what's called "trade down", which is a consumer migration from more expensive products to value priced products. So Simeon, in your broad coverage, are you seeing any evidence that consumers are trading down already? Simeon Gutman: We're seeing it in two primary ways. First, we're seeing some reversion away from durable, high ticket items away to consumable items. And the pace of consumption of some of these high ticket durable items is waning and pretty rapidly. Some of these are items that were very strong during the pandemic, electronics, some sporting goods items, home furnishings, to name a few. So these items we're seeing material sales deceleration as one form of trade down. As another in the food retail sector, we're definitely seeing signs of consumers spending less or finding ways to spend less inside the grocery store. They can do that by trading down from national brands to private brands, buying less expensive alternative, buying frozen instead of fresh and even in the meat counter, buying less expensive forms of protein. So we're seeing it manifest in those two ways. What is the situation in softlines, Kimberly? Is your coverage vulnerable to trade down risk? Kimberly Greenberger: Absolutely. In softlines retail, which is apparel, footwear, accessories retail, these are discretionary categories. Yes, there's sort of a minimum level of spending that's necessary because clothing is part of the essentials, food, shelter, clothing. But Americans' closets are full and they're full because last year there was a great deal of overspending on the apparel category. So where we have seen trade down impact our sector this year, Simeon, is we have seen consumers budget cutting and moving away from some of those more discretionary categories like apparel especially. We just have not yet seen any benefits to some of the more value oriented retailers that we would expect to see in the future if this behavior persists. Simeon Gutman: So when we're thinking about the context of our collaborative work with other Morgan Stanley sector analysts around trade down risks, what do you hear, Kimberly, about the impact on segments such as household products and restaurants? Kimberly Greenberger: We have found most fascinating, actually, the study of those real high frequency purchases. Because in order to understand how consumer behavior is changing at the margin, we think it's most important to look at what consumers were spending on last week, two weeks ago, three weeks ago as a better indication of what they're likely to spend on for the next three or six months. How that behavior has been changing is that on those of very high frequency purchases like the daily tobacco purchase or the daily food at home purchase, as you mentioned, is that there is trade down from higher priced brands and products into more value oriented brands and products. The same thing is happening in fast food. Another category that we consume on a somewhat more frequent basis than, for example, eating in casual dining restaurants where we're sitting down for a meal. So now we've got a good number of months of evidence that this is, in fact, happening, and that gives us more conviction that it's likely to continue through the second half of the year. So Simeon, in your view, what parts of retail are the likely winners and laggards should this trade down behavior persist and broaden out, particularly if a recession did materialize? Simeon Gutman: So in the event of a recession, I think the typical answers here are a little bit easier to identify. The two big beneficiaries, the channel beneficiaries, would be the dollar slash discount stores and then secondarily, off price. First, the dollar and discount stores, they are already seeing some initial signs of trade down and that is mostly in the consumable area. That is the place where the consumer feels the pinch immediately. The other piece of it is the discretionary spend. The longer these conditions persist, high inflation and potential other pressures on the consumer, then you'll start to see a more pronounced trade down and shift of discretionary purchases. And that's where off price plays a role. Kimberly Greenberger: Simeon, thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Simeon Gutman: Great speaking with you, Kimberly. Kimberly Greenberger: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

Mathias Kroder, CEO and Co-Founder of Baselane, the fintech company empowering the next generation of independent real estate investors and landlords with streamlined financial management tools. Before founding Baselane, Mathias was a Principal at Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in New York. He worked with leading financial service providers across North and South America. helping them with critical topics such as launching new digital business, go-to-market strategy, and growth initiatives. Mathias started his career at Morgan Stanley & Co. in New York. Mathias holds a Master of Business Administration from INSEAD and a BA in Economics from Trinity College.Connect with Mathias:Website: https://www.baselane.com/Linkedin : https://www.linkedin.com/in/mathiaskorder/Rich State of Mind Links:Website: www.richstateofmind.comJoin our email list to know our services and our prize giveaways:  https://sendfox.com/richstateofmind1Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/Instagram : @richstateofmindpage and @rich_invests_Podcast links: https://linktr.ee/anthanerichiePlease like and subscribe to our channel.See our cool wealth building and real estate T-shirt designs in the links below :Rich State of Mind Store : https://bit.ly/RichStateSupport the show

Too many people in the U.S., particularly those from communities of color, live in geographic areas that have little to no access to an affordable and adequate supply of healthy and fresh whole foods. Unequal access to quality food has ripple effects across health, performance in school, and ultimately, the ability to generate wealth. On this episode, we learn about how food industry professionals are working to eliminate food deserts across the country. First we hear from entrepreneur Cassandria Campbell, who co-founded Fresh Food Generation in Boston after moving back to the area in her early 20s and finding that there still weren't many places to get a quick, healthy, delicious meal. Then, host Carla Harris speaks with Something Better Foods founder and CEO, Chef GW Chew, about scaling his plant-based food manufacturing business in order to make securing fresh food a reality for all people. https://www.morganstanley.com/what-we-do/inclusive-innovation-and-opportunity Disclaimer textThe guest speakers are neither employees nor affiliated with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC. (“Morgan Stanley”). The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Morgan Stanley. The information and figures contained herein has been obtained from sources outside of Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley makes no representations or guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of information or data from sources outside of Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley is not responsible for the information or data contained in this podcast. This podcast does not provide individually tailored investment advice and is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it.© 2022 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Members SIPC.

As Bitcoin has been experiencing a steep decline in the last 6 months, investors are beginning to wonder when Cryptocurrencies will finally bottom out and start the cycle anew.Digital assets, sometimes known as cryptocurrency, are a digital representation of a value that function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but generally do not have legal tender status. Digital assets have no intrinsic value and there is no investment underlying digital assets. The value of digital assets is derived by market forces of supply and demand, and is therefore more volatile than traditional currencies' value. Investing in digital assets is risky, and transacting in digital assets carries various risks, including but not limited to fraud, theft, market volatility, market manipulation, and cybersecurity failures—such as the risk of hacking, theft, programming bugs, and accidental loss. Additionally, there is no guarantee that any entity that currently accepts digital assets as payment will do so in the future. The volatility and unpredictability of the price of digital assets may lead to significant and immediate losses. It may not be possible to liquidate a digital assets position in a timely manner at a reasonable price.Regulation of digital assets continues to develop globally and, as such, federal, state, or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of any or all digital assets, further contributing to their volatility. Digital assets stored online are not insured and do not have the same protections or safeguards of bank deposits in the US or other jurisdictions. Digital assets can be exchanged for US dollars or other currencies, but are not generally backed nor supported by any government or central bank.Before purchasing, investors should note that risks applicable to one digital asset may not be the same risks applicable to other forms of digital assets. Markets and exchanges for digital assets are not currently regulated in the same manner and do not provide the customer protections available in equities, fixed income, options, futures, commodities or foreign exchange markets.Morgan Stanley and its affiliates do business that may relate to some of the digital assets or other related products discussed in Morgan Stanley Research. These could include market making, providing liquidity, fund management, commercial banking, extension of credit, investment services and investment banking.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Sheena Shah, Lead Cryptocurrency Strategist for Morgan Stanley Research. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I address the question everyone seems to be asking about the crypto cycle: when will crypto prices find a bottom? It's Thursday, August 11th, at 5 p.m. in London. After a 75% peak to trough fall in Bitcoin's price between November 2021 and June this year, it seems like almost everyone in the market is asking the same question. When will crypto prices find the bottom? We will discuss three topics related to this question; the pace of new Bitcoin creation, past Bitcoin cycles and dollar liquidity. What can Bitcoin's creation tell us about where we are in the crypto cycle? Bitcoin's relatively short history means there is little available data, and yet the data is quite rich. In its short 12 year history, Bitcoin has experienced at least 10 bull and bear cycles. Bitcoin creation follows a 4 year cycle. Within these 4 year cycles, price action has so far followed three distinct phases. First, there is a rapid and almost exponential rise in price. Second, at a peak in price, a bear market follows. And third, prices move sideways, eventually leading into a new bull market. The question for investors today is, is Bitcoin's price moving out of the second phase and into the third? Only time will tell. There have only been three of these halving cycles in the past, and so it is difficult to conclude that these cycles will repeat in the future. What about past bear markets? The 75% peak to trough fall in Bitcoin's price and this cycle is currently faring better than previous cycles, in which the falls after peaks in 2011, 2013 and 2017 ranged between 85 and 95%. There is, therefore, speculation about whether this cycle has further to drop. Previous cycles have shed similar characteristics. In the bull runs there was speculation about the potential of a particular part of the crypto ecosystem. In 2011, it was the excitement about Bitcoin and the development of ecosystem technologies like exchanges and wallets. In 2020 to 2021, this cycle, there were NFTs, DeFi and the rising dominance of the institutional investor. In previous cycles, the bear runs were triggered by regulatory clampdowns or a dominant exchange being hacked. In 2013, a crackdown in China led to the world's largest exchange at that time, BTC China, stopping customer deposits. In this cycle, the liquidity tap dried up as inflation concerns gripped the market. Central bank liquidity and government stimulus fueled the speculation driven 2020-2022 crypto cycle. For this reason, day to day crypto traders are focusing on what the U.S. Federal Reserve plans to do with its interest rates and availability of dollars. To find a bottom, there are two liquidity related factors to look out for. First, market expectations that central banks will continue to tighten the money supply, turn into expectations that central banks will resume monetary expansion. Second, crypto companies increase appetite to build crypto leverage again. Both of these would increase liquidity and drive a new cycle of speculation. Which brings us back to the question about the bottom of the crypto cycle that almost everyone is asking: are we there yet? To answer that question, look at Bitcoin creation, past cycles and above all, liquidity. Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed Thoughts on the Market, share this and other episodes with a friend or colleague today.

This week, join Jen and her guest Dan Habib, co-founder and Executive Vice President of MBS Highway. In this episode Jen interviews Dan as he explains what the Fed Funds rate is and how it affects your mortgage payment. Tune in to hear more! Looking for some help? Jen is seeking individuals who would like to be featured as a panelist on the show for her Mortgage Lending Mastery Mastermind Series. Email admin@jenduplessis.com to get scheduled! ______________________________________________________ Lear more about Dan Habib BIO Dan Habib has been involved in the mortgage industry for over 18 years. He was just honored by National Mortgage Professional Magazine by being named one of the top 40 under 40 mortgage professionals in the country. He was also presented with Housing Wire's “Rising Star” award, which acknowledges young leaders in the housing industry. He was an integral part of Mortgage Market Guide, founded by Barry Habib, where he created and managed the sales team and helped grow their subscriber base.  Dan later worked at Morgan Stanley as a Financial Advisor, where he was a member of the #1 ranked Barron's financial advisory team in NJ. Dan has held his series 7, 63, 65, 31, and Life and Health insurance licenses.  He is currently the Executive Vice President and one of the founders of MBS Highway. Dan has been instrumental in all aspects of MBS Highway's significant growth over the past 8.5 years. He is extremely personable and loves having a team environment. He works very closely with the development team to create new tools for MBS Highway members. He also enjoys communicating with customers on a daily basis to answer their housing and market related questions.  Dan is also a sought-after speaker due to his extensive knowledge on the mortgage and real estate markets. GET IN TOUCH WITH DAN IG Website CRYPTO ANALYSIS Love the show? Subscribe, rate, review, and share! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Senate just passed the Inflation Reduction Act which seeks to fight inflation on a variety of fronts, but the most pressing question is, will the IRA actually impact inflation?-----Transcript-----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy. Ellen Zentner: And I'm Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Michael Zezas: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll discuss the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, with a focus on its impact on the U.S. economic outlook. It's Wednesday, August 10th, at noon in New York. Michael Zezas: So, Ellen, the Senate just passed the Democrats Inflation Reduction Act on a party line vote. And we know this has been a long awaited centerpiece to President Biden's agenda. But let me start with one of the more pressing questions here; from your perspective, does the Inflation Reduction Act reduce inflation? Or maybe more specifically, does it reduce inflation in a way that impacts how the Fed looks at inflation and how markets look at inflation? Ellen Zentner: So for it to impact the Fed today and how the markets are looking at inflation, it really has to show very near term effects here, where the IRA focuses more on longer term effects on inflation. So today we've got recent inflation report that came out this week showing that inflation moved lower, so softened. Especially showing the effects of those lower energy prices, which everyone notices because you go and gas up at the pump and so, you know right away what inflation is doing. And that's led to some more optimism from households. That at least gives the Fed some comfort, right, that they're doing the right thing here, raising rates and helping to bring inflation down. But there's a good deal more work for the Fed to do, and we think they raise rates by another 50 basis points at their September meeting. The rates market also took note of some of the inflation metrics of late that are looking a little bit better. But still, it's not definitive for markets what the Fed will do. We need a couple of more data points over the next few months. So the IRA is just a completely separate issue right now for the Fed and markets because that's going to be in the longer run impact. Michael Zezas: So the bill is constructed to actually pay down the federal government deficit by about $300 billion over 10 years, and conventional wisdom is that when you're reducing deficits, you're helping to calm inflation. Is that still the case here? Ellen Zentner: So it's still the case in general because it means less government debt that has to be issued. But let's put it in perspective, $300 billion deficit reduction spread over ten years is 30 billion a year in an economy that's greater than 20 trillion. And so it's very difficult to see. Michael Zezas: Okay, so the Inflation Reduction Act seems like it helps over the long term, but probably not a game changer in the short term. Ellen Zentner: That's right. Michael Zezas: Let's talk about some of the more specific elements within the bill and their potential impact on inflation over the longer term. So, for example, the IRA extends Affordable Care Act subsidies. It also allows Medicare to negotiate prices for prescription drugs, or at least some prescription drugs, for the first time. How do you view the impacts of those provisions? Ellen Zentner: So these are really the provisions that get at the meat of impacting inflation over the longer run. And I'll focus in on health care costs here. So specifically, drug prices have been quite high. Being able to lower drug prices helps lower income households, that helps older cohorts, and the cost of medical services gets a very large weight in overall consumer inflation and it gets a large weight because we spend so much on it. The other thing I'd note here, though, is that since it allows Medicare to negotiate prices for some drugs for the first time, well, that word negotiate is key here. It takes time to negotiate price changes, and that's why this bill is more something that affects longer run inflation rather than near term. Michael Zezas: Right. So bottom line, for market participants, this Inflation Reduction Act might ultimately deliver on its name. But if you want to understand what the Fed is going to do in the short term and how it might impact the rates markets, better off paying attention to incoming data over the next few months. It's also fair to say there's other market effects to watch emanating from the IRA, namely corporate tax effects and spending on clean energy. Those are two topics we're going to get into in podcasts over the next couple of weeks. Michael Zezas: Ellen, thanks for taking the time to talk. Ellen Zentner: Great speaking with you, Michael. Michael Zezas: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people find the show.

200 million dollars. Wouldn't it be nice is someone paid you 200 million dollars? But wouldn't it be a nightmare to be slapped with a fine amounting to 200 million dollars? The financial services firm Morgan Stanley recently announced they expect to pay a 200 million dollar fine levied by government regulators. What did they do wrong? Employees misused their personal computers and cell phones, bypassing the company's record-keeping obligations.1 Then there's the Tulsa school district. The Oklahoma governor wants to audit them over possible misuse of funds, violating state law prohibiting the teaching of critical race theory.2 Good things are often misused, like prescription medication. People don't follow the dosing instructions or take it without a doctor's order. The restrictions are in place to protect people. Misusing prescription meds can damage the body or cause death. You see, when things are misused, bad things usually happen. The same is true with God's name. The third commandment says, “Thou shalt not take the name of the LORD thy God in vain.” Taking something in vain means to use it in a useless or empty way. This is far more than avoiding the use of God's name as a curse. Maybe we'd understand it better with the New International Version. Exodus 20:7 says, “You shall not misuse the name of the LORD your God, for the LORD will not hold anyone guiltless who misuses his name.” Today, honor God with the proper use of his name. Sridhar Natarajan and Katherine Doherty, "Morgan Stanley Misuse of Personal Devices Costs $200 Million," Bloomberg, July 14, 2022, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-misuse-personal-devices-115749483.htmlJeremiah Poff, "Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt demands audit of Tulsa schools for potential misuse of funds," Washington Examiner, July 07, 2022, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/education/ok-gov-kevin-stitt-audit-tulsa-schools-misuse-funds How to leave a review: https://www.sparkingfaith.com/rate-and-review/ Visit Elmer Fuller's author website at: https://www.elmerfuller.com/ Bumper music “Landing Place” performed by Mark July, used under license from Shutterstock.

As lending standards tighten and banks get ready to make some tough choices, how will the housing market fare if loan growth slows? Co-Heads of U.S. Securitized Products Research Jim Egan and Jay Bacow discuss.-----Transcript-----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, Co-Head of U.S. Securitized Products Research here at Morgan Stanley. Jim Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other Co-Head of U.S. Securitized Products Research. Jay Bacow: And on this episode of the podcast, we'll be discussing how tightening lending standards could impact housing activity. It's Tuesday, August 9th, at 11 a.m. in New York. Jim Egan: Now Jay, you published a high level report last week with Vishy Tirupattur, who is the Head of Fixed Income Research here at Morgan Stanley, on the coming capital crunch. Basically, rising capital pressures will mean that banks will have to make tough choices in their lending books. Is that about right? Jay Bacow: Yeah, that's it. Basically, we don't think that markets have really appreciated the impact of the combination of how rising rates caused losses on banks portfolios, the regulatory changes and the results of the stress test capital buffers. All of these things are going to require banks to look at the composition of not just the assets that they own, but their business models in general. Our large cap banking analyst Betsy Graseck thinks that banks are going to look at things differently to come up with different solutions depending on the bank, but in general across the industry, expects lending standards to tighten for this year and in 2023, and for loan growth to slow. So, Jim, if banks are going to tighten lending standards then what does that mean for housing activity? Jim Egan: I think, especially if we look at home sales, that's a negative for sales volumes and home sales are already falling. We've talked about affordability deterioration on this podcast a few times now, not just the fact of where affordability is in the housing market, but how rapidly it's deteriorating. If lending standards are going to tighten on top of those affordability pressures, then that just argues for potentially an even more substantial decrease in sales volumes going forward, and we're already seeing this in the data. Through the first half of the year new home sales are down 14% versus the first half of 2021. Purchase applications, that's our highest frequency data point that we have, they're getting progressively weaker each month. They were down 17% year over year in June, 19% year over year in July. Existing home sales, and that's referencing a much larger volume of sales then new home sales, they're down a comparatively strong 8% year to date. But with all of the dynamics that we're discussing, we believe that they're going to see a much more precipitous drop in the second half of the year. We have it down over 15% year over year versus 2021. Now, that's because of affordability pressures. It's because of the potential for tightening lending standards. It's also because of the lock in effect from a rate perspective. Jay Bacow: On that lock in effect, with just 2% of the market having incentive to refinance, lenders are sitting there and saying, well, what do we do in this environment where we can't just give people a rate refi? Now, you mentioned the purchase activity, that's obviously one area, but Black Knight just reported another quarterly record of untapped equity in the housing market, and consumers would love to be able to tap that. The problem is when you do a cash out refinance, you end up increasing the rate on your entire mortgage. And homeowners don't want to do that. So they'd love to do something like a home equity line of credit or second lien where they're getting charged the higher rate on just the equity they take out. But the problem is it's harder to originate those in an environment where lending standards are tightening, particularly given the capital allocation against those type of loans can be onerous. Jim Egan: Right. And the level of conversations around an increase in kind of the second lien or the hill market have certainly been picking up over the past weeks and months, both on the originator side, on the investor side, as people look to find ways to access that record amount of equity that you mentioned in the housing market. Jay Bacow: Thinking about trying, people are still trying to sell houses and you just commented on the housing activity, but what about the prices they're selling at? Some of the recent data was pretty surprising. Jim Egan: The most recent month of data, I think the point that has raised the most eyebrows was the average or median price of new home sales saw a pretty significant month over month decrease. We continue to see month over month increases in the median and average price of existing home sales at. When we think about average and median prices, there's a mix shift issue there. So month over month, depending on the types of homes that sell things can move. What we actually forecast, the repeat sales index Case-Shiller, we're starting to see a slowdown in growth. The past two months have been consecutive deceleration in the pace of home price growth. I think the thing that we'd highlight most is the growing geographic pervasiveness of the slowdown. Two months ago, 11 of the Case-Shiller 20 city index was showing a deceleration month over month. This past month, it was 16. Now, all 20 cities continue to show home price growth, but again, 16 are showing that pace slowdown. There is some regional specificity to this, the cities that continue to accelerate largely in Florida, Miami and Tampa to name two. Jay Bacow: Okay. So that's what we've seen. What do we expect to see on a go forward basis? Jim Egan: We talked about our expectations for sales a few minutes ago. I think the one thing that we do want to highlight is on the starts front, we think that single unit starts are going to start to decrease over the course of the back half of this year. There's a couple of reasons for that. We talked about affordability pressures, another dynamic that's been playing out in the space is that there's been a backlog not just of housing starts, but before those starts to get the completion units under construction has swollen back to 2004 levels, starts themselves are only at 1997 levels. We do think that that is going to kind of disincentivize starts going forward. We're already starting to see it a little bit in the underlying data, trailing 12 month single unit starts had plateaued for largely a year. They've been down the past two months, we think that they're going to continue to fall in the back half of this year. It's already playing through from a sentiment perspective, homebuilder confidence is down 39% from its peak in November of 2020, and that's being driven by their perception of traffic on their sites as well as their perception of future sales conditions. So we do think that starts are going to fall because a number of these dynamics. And we think that home price growth is going to remain positive and we've highlighted this on this podcast before, but the pace is going to start slowing pretty materially in the back half of this year. The most recent print was 19.7%, down from over 20%, but we think it gets all the way to 9% by December 2022, 3% by December 2023. So continued home price growth, but the pace is going to slow pretty materially. Jim Egan: Jay, thanks for taking the time to talk. Jay Bacow: Jim. Always a pleasure. Jim Egan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Host Mark Hochgesang speaks with Ivan Tchatchouwo, the co-founder of The Zone, a company focused on student athlete mental wellness. Ivan reveals how his personal challenges inspired him to help other young athletes overcome their own mental hurdles. A wide variety of mental health issues confronting today's sports world and beyond are addressed, including identity crisis, eating disorders, anxiety and depression and the even the new-found pressures brought about by NIL fame. Ivan discusses his transition from Cameroon to New York, his stellar but injury-ridden basketball career and the trials and triumphs of being a tech entrepreneur. Ivan & Mark also have fun along the way and give shout outs to Simone Biles, Ohio State's Ryan Day, Denzel Washington, Jay-Z, and even Napoleon and the Batman villain Bane.* The Zone Website: https://www.itsthezone.com/* The Zone's partnership with Morgan Stanley: https://www.itsthezone.com/* Ivan's Linkedin Profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivan-tchatchouwo-78292195/

Salone Sehgal is the world's first female General Partner of a games and interactive VC fund. She co-founded Lumikai Fund, India's first early-stage interactive media and gaming VC, anchored by the world's largest games and media conglomerates. She has 15+ years of experience as a global games & new media investor, games entrepreneur, and former M&A banker. Previously, she was Principal at London Venture Partners (LVP), Europe's pioneering seed-stage gaming VC (with a track record of backing 40 companies delivering $14Bn in shareholder value). My conversation with Salone is very insightful and debunks misconceptions about venture partners, investing, and why does venture capital still repeatedly fail female founders? - How and why Salone decided to start her own fund, focusing on India as an underserved market, and female founders - How Salone approaches her team building and managed to hire 40% women to join the fund - Why there is still a barrier for women to join the venture partners world, and what we can do about it - Why the lack of women and diversity among investors is a huge missed opportunity? Even when a female-led team makes it to the deal flow evaluation meetings of VC funds, they often don't progress. Lack of female decision-makers in VC is often cited as a cause for this. There is often no one to champion the deal or resonate with the product (particularly if it's female focused). - Salone's lessons being both a founder and an investor, and how being a founder helps to be a better investor - How Salone overcame the challenges of being the "only woman" or person of color in the rooms of the corporate financial world I hope this conversation will inspire you to take a step forward in the venture world and be part of the change to have more women as investors. More resources about venture capital: #NoVenture$ForWomen: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/noventureforwomen-salone-sehgal/ Morgan Stanley statistics: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/trillion-dollar-blind-spot-infographic To keep the conversation going, don't forget to subscribe to Rise and Play: https://www.riseandplay.io Special thanks to our sponsors who believed in our mission and are making Rise and Play possible! Game Refinery supports developers to empower game development, research, and ad targeting with the market's largest dataset on mobile game genres & features, player motivations, and more. Appodeal is an all-in-one growth platform for mobile app creators of any size. Appodeal unlocks access to a new generation of advanced business intelligence tools to help you streamline your product, monetization, and predictive analytics to forecast LTV and ROAS. All, while keeping its customer support responsive, human and available 24/7, whenever you need them.

While inflation remains high and the battle to bring it down is top of mind, there may be some opportunities in technologies that could help bring down inflation in some sectors.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Josh Pokrzywinski, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Electrical Equipment and Multi-Industry Analyst. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about deflationary opportunities in this high inflation environment. It's Monday, August 8th, at 4 p.m. in New York. As most listeners no doubt know, the battle to bring down inflation is the topic of 2022. But today I want to talk about inflation from a slightly different perspective, and that's how automation and productivity enhancing technologies could actually help bring down inflation in areas such as labor, supply chain procurement and energy. And while these technologies require capital investment, something that's often difficult when the economy is uncertain, we believe structural changes in demographics, energy policy and security, and an aging capital base make technologies focused on cost reductions and productivity actually more valuable. So for investors focusing on stocks that enable productivity and cost reduction through automation, efficiency, or their own declining cost curves while maintaining strong barriers to entry and attractive equity risk/reward, is something to consider. To dig into this, the U.S. Equity Strategy Team and equity analysts across the spectrum at Morgan Stanley Research created a deflation enabler shopping list. And that list is composed of stocks that produce tangible cost savings for their customers, where costs themselves are rising due to inflation, such as labor and energy, or scarcity, for example semiconductors or materials. In many cases, the cost of the product itself has also come down through technology or economies of scale, benefitting the purchaser and therefore adoption on both lower cost to implement and higher cost avoidance through use. So where should investors look? Although there are a number of deflationary companies across areas such as automation and semiconductors, we identified three major deflationary technologies which permeate across sectors and which are at long term inflection points in their importance for both enterprise and consumer. The first is artificial intelligence or AI. AI is proving relentless and increasingly deflationary. In biotech, AI could shorten development timelines, lower R&D spend and improve probability of success. The second is clean energy. My colleague Stephen Burd, who covers clean energy and utilities, has pointed out that against the backdrop of inflationary fossil fuels and utility bills, companies with deflationary clean energy technologies and high barriers to entry will be able to grow rapidly and generate increasing margins. And finally, mass energy storage and mobility. Although the cost of batteries have been falling for some time, competition in the space has led to heightened investment. In addition, ambitious top down government emissions goals have facilitated an exponential uplift in demand for batteries and their component raw materials. Although supply chains for batteries remain immature, battery storage technology is only beginning to have profound effects on society mobility, inclusivity and ultimately climate. As investment by automakers rises along with generous European subsidies aimed at staying competitive with U.S. and Chinese investment, the supply chain and innovation in new battery technologies such as solid state mean that the price should continue to fall as innovation and demand rise. This is extended beyond the personal vehicle market, with the cost savings and efficiency improvements driving profound changes and improvements in the range and cost of heavy duty and long haul trucking EV, and ultimately autonomous, markets. To sum up, in an inflationary world we believe companies that have developed deflationary products and services will become increasingly valuable, as long as they have significant barriers to entry with respect to those products and services. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In today's edition of Daily Compliance News: ·       Ex-PR gov arrested on corruption charges. (Bloomberg) ·       Morgan Stanley settles FTC, CFTC enforcement actions.  (Reuters) ·       Top 10 least corrupt countries in Africa.  (Business Insider) ·       OBGs avoided forced birth states. (WaPo) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The current market pricing can tell investors a lot about what the market believes is coming next, but the future is uncertain and investors may not always agree with market expectations. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.--- Transcript ---Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, August 5th, at 2 p.m. in London.Trying to predict where financial markets will go is difficult. The future, as they say, is uncertain, and even the most talented investors and forecasters will frequently struggle to get these predictions right.A different form of this question, however, might be easier. What do markets assume will happen? After all, these assumptions are the result of thousands of different actors, most of which are trying very hard to make accurate predictions about future market prices because a lot of money is on the line. Not only is there a lot of information in those assumptions, but understanding them are table stakes for a lot of investment strategy. After all, if our view only matches what is already expected by the market to happen, it is simply much less meaningful.Let's start with central banks, where current market pricing can tell us quite a bit. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates by another 100 basis points between now and February to about three and a half percent. And then from there, the Fed is expected to reverse course, reducing rates by about half a percent by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates steadily from a current level of 0 to 1.1% over the next 12 months.Morgan Stanley's economists see it differently in both regions. In the U.S., we think the Fed will take rates a little higher than markets expect by year end and then leave them higher for longer than markets currently imply. In the U.S., we think the Fed will take rates higher than markets expect by year end and then leave them higher for longer than is currently implied. In Europe, it's the opposite. We think the ECB will raise rates more slowly than markets imply. The idea that the Fed may do more than expected while the ECB does less is one reason we forecast the US dollar to strengthen further against the euro.A rich set of future expectations also exists in the commodity market. For example, markets expect oil prices to be about 10% lower in 12 months time. Gasoline is priced to be about 15% lower between now and the end of the year. The price of gold, in contrast, is expected to be about 3% more expensive over the next 12 months.I'd stress that these predictions are not some sort of cheat code for the market. The fact that oil is priced to decline 10% doesn't mean that you can make 10% today by selling oil. Rather, it means that foreign investor, a 10% decline in oil, or a 3% rise in gold will simply mean you break even over the next 12 months.Again, all of this pricing informs our views. We forecast oil to decline less and gold to decline more than market prices imply. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley equity analysts can work backwards looking at what these commodity expectations would mean for the companies that produce them. We won't get into that here, but it's yet another way that we can take advantage of information the market is already giving us.Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

This week, Roger interviews cash flow expert David Safeer, Founder and CEO of David Safeer International, an institution that trains accountants on matters of cash flow, and also works with CFOs to optimize their cash flow and run businesses more effectively.  They talk about all matters cash flow; managing cash flow, cash flow strategies etc., the reasons why most businesses fail and how as an accountant you can predict the future and help businesses deal with cash effectively. Your Host: Roger Knecht, president of Universal Accounting Center Guest Name: David Safeer David Safeer is a globally recognized expert in cash flow optimization and the founder of David Safeer International, which educates and advises accountants and CFOs on cash flow and profit maximization strategies for their clients.  His work has impacted hundreds of businesses with revenues from $1 million - $20 million in 40 countries. As vice president and general manager of Kodak Latin America, he transformed his division from years of loss to profitability in 18 months. As president of Iomega Latin America, Inc., David grew revenue by 404% in 5 years and profits by 181%. David has a master's degree in International Management and 20 years of working with Fortune 100 companies such as Morgan Stanley and Dell. David teaches accountants how to grow their revenue with cash flow advisory services through his cash flow advisory certification program and mastermind groups.  Sponsors: Universal Accounting Center Helping accounting professionals confidently and competently offer quality accounting services to get paid what they are worth.   Offers: Schedule and have a 30-minute call with David to discuss any challenges you or your clients are having and attend a month of David's Cash Flow Advisory Masterminds for free. This includes access to the Mastermind archives to explore case studies and cash flow frameworks, strategies, and tactics. Between the call and the month mastermind sessions, that's a $650 value.  Also download the EBook 10 Easy No Risk Habits to Start Managing Cash Flow Today      Get a FREE copy of this book all accounting professionals should use to work on their business and become profitable.  This is a must-have addition to every accountant's library to provide to have the premier accounting business today: “in the BLACK, nine principles to make your business profitable” – e-book “Red to BLACK in 30 days – A small business accountant's guide to QUICK turnarounds” – the how-to-guide e-book for accounting professionals For Additional FREE Resources for accounting professionals check out this collection HERE!   Be sure to join us for GrowCon, the LIVE event for accounting professionals to work ON their business. This is a conference you don't want to miss.   Remember this, Accounting Success IS Universal. Listen to our next episode and be sure to subscribe.   Also, let us know what you think of the podcast and please share any suggestion you may have.  We look forward to your input: Podcast Feedback For more information on how you can apply these principles in your business please visit us at www.universalaccountingschool.com or call us at 801.265.3777

Today's episode features Michael Mauboussin reading his piece, Everything Is a DCF Model. Michael is Head of Consilient Research on Counterpoint Global at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2020 and has 33 years of investment experience. The Best Investment Writing series features top research pieces that we've shared via The Idea Farm in the past year. Subscribe here so you get these sent to you each week. Check out the past series of The Best Investment Writing below: Volume 5 Volume 4 Volume 3 Volume 2 Volume 1 ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Today's episode is sponsored by Stream by AlphaSense. Stream is an expert transcript library used by people just like you to quickly perform preliminary diligence on new ideas related to their target companies in the tech, media, telecom, healthcare, consumer and industrial sectors; avoiding the time, hassle, and cost of traditional expert network calls.  With over 15,000 on-demand expert call interviews, 100+ new transcripts added each day, AI smart search technology, and 70% of our experts unique to our network, it's no wonder the world's leading financial firms choose Stream. Sponsor dollars for the entire Best Investment Writing series are being donated to the charity of the guest's choice. Today's sponsor dollars are being donated to the Santa Fe Institute on behalf of Michael Mauboussin. ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! 

As investors watch to see if tensions between the U.S. and China will escalate, it's important to understand the underlying competitive dynamic and how U.S. policy may have macro impacts.--- Transcript ---Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Public pPolicy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy and financial markets. It's Thursday, August 4th, at 1 p.m. in New York.This week, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's Asia trip had the attention of many investors as they watched to see whether her actions would escalate tensions between the U.S. and China. In our view, though, this event wasn't a potential catalyst for tensions, but rather evidence of tensions that persist between the two global powers. Hence, we think investors are better served focusing on the underlying dynamic rather than any particular event.The U.S.-China rivalry has many complicated causes, many of which we've covered on previous podcasts. But the point we want to reemphasize is this; this rivalry is going to persist. China is interested in asserting its global influence, which in ways can be at odds with how the U.S. and Europe want the international economic system to function. Nowhere is this clearer than in the policies the U.S. has adopted in recent years aimed at boosting its competitiveness with China.The latest is the enactment of the Chips Plus Bill, which allocates over $250 billion to help US industries, in particular the semiconductor industry, to devolve its supply chain reliance on China for the purposes of economic security and to protect sensitive technologies. Policies like this have more of a sectoral effect than the macro one. But the primary market impact here being a defraying of rising costs for the semiconductor industry. But investors should be aware that there's potential policy changes on the horizon that could have macro impacts. For example, Congress considered creating an outbound investment restriction mechanism in that Chips Plus bill. Such a restriction could have significantly interrupted foreign direct investment in China with substantial consequences for China equity markets.That provision didn't make it into this bill, and with little legislative time between now and the midterm elections, it's unlikely to resurface this year. That's cause some to conclude that it's likely to be years before such a provision could become enacted, particularly if Republicans take back control of one or both chambers of Congress creating a risk of gridlock.But we'd caution that's too simple of a conclusion. The concept of outbound investment restrictions enjoys bipartisan support. So we think investors should be on guard for this provision to get serious consideration in 2023. We'll, of course, track it and keep you informed.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

After the July FOMC meeting, markets took a quick dive and then made an immediate recovery, so what happened?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about global macro trends and how investors can interpret these trends for rates and currency markets. It's Wednesday, August 3rd, at 1 p.m. in New York. In the weeks since the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, rates and currency markets have made quite the round trip. Treasury yields from 2 out to10 year maturities fell by over 25 basis points in the three days that followed the meeting. And the U.S. dollar index declined by 2% over the same period. However, looking at these markets today, as I sit here recording this podcast, it's almost as if the July FOMC meeting didn't happen. 10 year Treasury yields are about where they were going into the meeting last week, and 2 year yields are a bit higher even. As for the U.S. dollar index, it's back to the range it was in ahead of the meeting. So what happened? Going into the meeting, investors thought that the Fed would deliver a 75 basis point rate hike, but recognized that there was a tail risk of a larger 100 basis point hike. And even if the tail risk didn't materialize, investors had acknowledged that the additional 25 basis points might be delivered in September instead. And that would make for the third 75 basis point hike in this cycle. In short, investors were positioned for a hawkish outcome. The FOMC statement and Chair Powell's prepared remarks didn't disappoint. The message was on par with what FOMC participants had been saying over recent weeks and months. Inflation is still top of mind, and more work is needed to bring it down to acceptable levels. If the meeting ended with Powell's prepared remarks, rates and currencies would have likely taken a different path to where they trade today. However, the meeting didn't end there, and the Q&A session of Powell's press conference struck a more dovish tone. Three messages contributed to this interpretation. First, Powell suggested that rates had achieved a neutral setting, or one that neither puts upward nor downward pressure on economic activity relative to its potential. Second, he said that because a neutral policy setting had been reached, the pace of subsequent rate hikes could soon begin to slow. And finally, he suggested that the committee's view of the peak policy rate in the cycle hadn't changed since the last FOMC meeting, even though inflation data since then continued to surprise on the higher side. The reason for this seemed to be focused on the deterioration in activity data or growth data. In many ways, investors should have expected these statements from Powell, given guidance coming from the June summary of economic projections. In addition, because Fed policy had tightened financial conditions this year, and those financial conditions helped slow economic growth, the case for a less hawkish performance might have been predictable. The data that arrived in the wake of the meeting underscored the recent themes of slower growth and higher inflation. But the Fedspeak that arrived in the wake of the data, well, it continued to focus on inflation, as it had done before the Fed met in July. Where does all of that leave the Fed on policy and us on markets? Well, the Fed's job bringing inflation down hasn't yet been accomplished, the bond market is pricing less policy tightening than the Fed is last guided towards, and downside risks to global growth are rising. As a result, we remain neutral on bond market duration, but remain bullish on the U.S. dollar, particularly against the euro. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people find the show.

As studies begin to show that obesity medications may save lives, will governments and insurances begin to consider them preventative primary care? And how might this create opportunity in pharmaceuticals? Head of European Pharmaceuticals Mark Purcell and Head of U.S. Pharmaceuticals Terence Flynn discuss.-----Transcript-----Mark Purcell: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mark Purcell, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Pharmaceuticals Team. Terence Flynn: And I'm Terence Flynn, Head of the U.S. Pharmaceuticals Team. Mark Purcell: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll be talking about the global obesity challenge and our outlook for the next decade. It's Tuesday, August the 2nd, and it's 1 p.m. in London. Terence Flynn: And 8 a.m. in New York. Terence Flynn: So Mark, more than 650 million people worldwide are living with obesity as we speak. The personal, social and economic costs from obesity are huge. The World Health Organization estimates that obesity is responsible for 5% of all global deaths, which impacts global GDP by around 3%. Obesity is linked to over 200 health complications from osteoarthritis, to kidney disease, to early loss of vision. So tackling the obesity epidemic would impact directly or indirectly multiple sectors of the economy. Lots to talk about today, but let's start with one of the key questions here: why are we talking about all this now? Are we at an inflection point? And is the obesity narrative changing? Mark Purcell: Yeah Terence look, there's a category of medicine called GLP-1's which have been used to treat diabetes for over a decade. GLP-1 is an appetite suppressing hormone. It works on GLP-1 receptors, you could think of these as hunger receptors, and it helps to regulate how much food our bodies feel they need to consume. Therefore, these GLP-1 medicines could become an important weapon in the fight against obesity. The latest GLP-1 medicines can help individuals who are obese lose 15 to 20% of their body weight. That is equivalent to 45 to 60% of the excess weight these individuals carry in the form of fat which accumulates around the waist and important organs in our bodies such as the liver. There is a landmark obesity study called SELECT, which has been designed to answer the following key question: does weight management save lives? An interim analysis of this SELECT study is anticipated in the next two months, and our work suggests that GLP-1 medicines could deliver a 27% reduction in the risk of heart attacks, strokes and cardiovascular deaths. We believe that governments and insurance companies will broaden the reimbursement of GLP-1 medicines in obesity if they are proven to save lives. This comes at a time when new GLP-1 medicines are becoming available with increasing levels of effectiveness. It's an exciting time in the war against obesity, and we wanted to understand the implications of the SELECT study before it reads out. Terence Flynn: So, our collaborative work suggests that obesity may be the new hypertension. What exactly do we mean by that, Mark? How do we size the global opportunity and what's the timeline here? Mark Purcell: Back in the 1960s and 1970s, hypertension was seen as a lifestyle disease caused by stress and old age. Over time, it was shown that high blood pressure could be treated, and in doing so, doctors could prevent heart attacks and save lives. A new wave of medicines were introduced to the market in the mid 1980s to treat individuals with high blood pressure and doctors found the most effective way to treat high blood pressure was to use combinations of these medicines. By the end of the 1990's, the hypertension market reached $30 billion in sales, that's equivalent to over $15 billion today adjusting for inflation. Obesity is seen by many as a lifestyle disease caused by a lack of self-control when it comes to eating too much. However, obesity is now classified as a preventable chronic disease by medical associations, just like hypertension. Specialists in the obesity field now recognize that our bodies have evolved over hundreds of thousands of years to put on weight, to survive times where there is a lack of food available and a key way to fight obesity is to reset the balance of how much food our bodies think they need. With the availability of new, effective obesity medicines, we believe that obesity is on the cusp of moving into mainstream primary care management. And the obesity market is where the treatment of high blood pressure was in the mid to late 1980s. We built a detailed obesity model focusing on the key bottlenecks, patient activation, physicians engagement and payer recognition. And we believe that the obesity global sales could exceed $50 billion by the end of this decade. Terence Flynn: So Mark, what are the catalysts aligning to unlock the potential of this $50 billion obesity opportunity? Mark Purcell: We believe there are full catalysts which should begin to unlock this opportunity over the next six months. Firstly, the SELECT study, which we talked about. It could be stopped early in the next two months if GOP P1 medicines are shown overwhelmingly to save lives by reducing excess weight. Secondly, the demand for GLP-1 medicines to treat obesity was underappreciated by the pharmaceutical industry. But through the second half of this year, GLP-1 medicines, supply constraints will be addressed and we'll be able to appreciate the underlying patient demand for these important medicines. Thirdly, analysis shows that social media is already creating a recursive cycle of education, word of mouth and heightened demand for these weight loss medicines. Lastly, diabetes treatment guidelines are actively evolving to recognize important comorbidities, and we expect a greater emphasis on weight treatment goals by the end of this year. Terence Flynn: Mark, you mentioned some bottlenecks with respect to the obesity challenge. One of those was patient activation. What's the story there and how does social media play into it? Mark Purcell: Yes, great question Terence, look it's estimated that less than 10% of individuals suffering from obesity are diagnosed and actively managed by doctors. And that compares to 80 to 90% of individuals who suffer from high blood pressure, or diabetes, or high levels of cholesterol. Once patients come forward to see their doctors, 40% of them are treated with an anti-obesity medicine. And as more effective medicines become available, we just think this percentage is going to rise. Lastly, studies designed to answer the question, what benefit does 15 to 20% weight loss deliver in terms of reducing the risk of high blood pressure, diabetes, kidney disease and cardiovascular disease? Will help activate governments and insurance companies to reimburse obesity medicines. But it all starts with individuals suffering from obesity coming forward and seeking help, and this is where we expect social media to play a really important key role. Terence Flynn: To a layperson, there's significant overlap between diabetes and obesity. How do we conceptualize the obesity challenge vis a vis diabetes, Mark? Mark Purcell: Terence, you're absolutely right. There is significant overlap between diabetes and obesity and it makes it difficult and complicated to model. It's estimated that between 80 to 85% of diabetics are overweight. It's estimated that 35% of diabetics are obese and around 10% of diabetics are severely obese. GLP-1 medicines have been used to treat diabetes for over a decade, not only being extremely effective in lowering blood sugar, but also in reducing the risk of cardiovascular events like heart attacks and removing excess body weight, which is being recognized as increasingly important. This triple whammy of benefit means that the use of GLP-1 medicines is increasing rapidly, and sales in diabetes are expected to reach over $20 billion this year, compared to just over $2 billion in obesity. By the end of the decade our work suggests that the use of GLP-1 based medicines in obesity could exceed the use in diabetes by up to 50%. Terence Flynn: Mark, thanks for taking the time to talk. Mark Purcell: Great speaking with you again, Terrence. Terence Flynn: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Welcome to another episode of The Fashion Brand Clinic with me, Elizabeth Stiles! I recently met today's guest at a women's empowerment event in collaboration with Squarespace & The Stack World! We were on separate tables but managed to have a quick chat & secure her place as a guest on the podcast! Tiwalola Ogunlesi is a globally recognised coach specialising in positive psychology, international speaker, author and the founder of Confident and Killing It. Confident and Killing It is a purpose driven organisation and community that wakes women up to their worth so they can be confident, unstoppable and dare to live the life they truly desire. Through engaging workshops, coaching sessions and podcasts, Tiwalola equips women with the tools they need to overcome fear and self-doubt, programme their minds for success and take action in life. Since starting in 2018 she's upskilled over 7000 women in London, NYC, Lagos and delivered engaging experiences for brands/organisations such as Google, Facebook, The Times,  Deloitte, Morgan Stanley, UN Women UK,  The Oprah Winfrey Leadership Academy and many more. 

In this week's episode, Roger Knecht and Trevor discuss the technologies and softwares and how they impact you and how you run your business. Trevor gives a  Step by step illustration on ways you can change or translate technical concepts into easy concepts that are easily understood by the clients. Learn how you can accelerate your business growth through innovative ways.    Your Host: Roger Knecht, president of Universal Accounting Center Guest Name: Trevor Ewen Trevor is an experienced software engineer, and real estate investor. He has an MBA from London Business School and Columbia Business School. He is a Southport Ventures partner and the CEO of Southport Technology Group. He manages full-stack teams in clean energy, insurance, finance, and media. Notable engagements include Morgan Stanley, HBO, Honest Buildings (now Procore), Black Bear Energy, and PRco. Sponsors: Universal Accounting Center Helping accounting professionals confidently and competently offer quality accounting services to get paid what they are worth.   Offers:   Business owners (or administrators) can book a 30-minute virtual coffee with a member of our team here: https://stg.software/coffeeIt's free. We send you a Starbucks gift card and do a quick technical survey on your business. After the call, we compile the information into a free report and send it over. BizBench Get a FREE copy of this book all accounting professionals should use to work on their business and become profitable.  This is a must-have addition to every accountant's library to provide to have the premier accounting business today: “in the BLACK, nine principles to make your business profitable” – e-book “Red to BLACK in 30 days – A small business accountant's guide to QUICK turnarounds” – the how-to-guide e-book for accounting professionals   For Additional FREE Resources for accounting professionals check out this collection HERE!   Be sure to join us for GrowCon, the LIVE event for accounting professionals to work ON their business. This is a conference you don't want to miss.   Remember this, Accounting Success IS Universal. Listen to our next episode and be sure to subscribe.   Also, let us know what you think of the podcast and please share any suggestion you may have.  We look forward to your input: Podcast Feedback   For more information on how you can apply these principles in your business please visit us at www.universalaccountingschool.com or call us at 801.265.3777

Our guest today is Tara Favors, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer at Mutual of America Financial Group.Tara is responsible for HR strategy, including talent acquisition, development, and retention; diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI); organizational learning; compensation programs; all aspects of employee benefits; and the development of a hybrid employee work policy.  She works closely with the Executive Committee as they implement their transformational business initiatives and update their long-term strategic plan. Questions For Tara include:How can HR leaders make processes more equitable? What do you hope to accomplish in the year ahead?What are your thoughts on the Great Resignation? What should companies be doing to improve retention rates? More About TaraTara has more than 20 years of experience in human resources leadership roles in financial services and other sectors. Prior to joining Mutual of America, she was Vice President of Human Resources for the Global Merchant and Network Services business of American Express, where she led aglobal team that provided a strategic human resources partnership to approximately 4,000 employees. Previously, she also worked at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank where she held a wide range of leadership roles across HumanResources. About Mutual of America Financial GroupMutual of America Financial Group is a leading provider of retirement services and investments to employers, employees and individuals. We provide high-quality, innovative products and services at a competitive price, along with outstanding personalized service, to help our customers build and preserve assets for a financially secure future. Their mission is built upon their values—integrity, prudence, reliability, excellence, and social responsibility—which have guided them since 1945 and continue to serve them and their customers well. For more information, visit mutualofamerica.com.We do our best to ensure editorial objectivity. The views and ideas shared by our guests and sponsors are entirely independent of The HR Gazette, HRchat Podcast and Iceni Media Inc.  

Melissa Baker, Founding Partner of Fenwick Brands, discusses trends in the Private Equity space. Bloomberg Technology Reporter Alex Barinka talks about her story on TikTok's misogyny watchdog. Solomon Partners CEO Marc Cooper gives his mid-year outlook on M&A. And we Drive to the Close with Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley.Hosts: Tim Stenovec and Kriti Gupta Producer: Sara LivezeySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the Fed continues to surprise with large and fast interest rate increases, the market must decide, has the Fed done enough? Or is the recession already here?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, August 1st at 11 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it. Over the past year, the Fed has come under scrutiny for their outlook on inflation, and they've even admitted themselves that they misjudged the call when they claimed inflation would be transient. In an effort to regain its credibility, the Fed has swiftly pivoted to its most hawkish policy action since the 1980s. In fact, while we may have been the most hawkish equity strategists on the street at the beginning of the year, we never expected to see this many rate hikes in 2022. Suffice it to say, it hasn't gone unnoticed by markets with both stocks and bonds off to their worst start in many decades. However, since peaking in June, 10 year Treasuries have had one of their largest rallies in history, with the yield curve inverting by as much as 33 basis points. Perhaps more importantly, market based five year inflation expectations have plunged and now sit very close to the Fed's long term target of 2%. Objectively speaking, it appears as though the bond market has quickly turned into a believer that the Fed will get inflation under control. This kind of action from the Fed is bullish for bonds, and one of the main reasons we turned bullish on bonds relative to stocks back in April. Since then, bonds have done better than stocks, even though it's been a flat ride in absolute terms. It also explains why defensively oriented stocks have dominated the leadership board and why we are sticking with it. Meanwhile, stocks have rallied with bonds and are up almost 14% from the June lows. The interpretation here is that the Fed has inflation tamed, and could soon pause its rate hikes, which is usually a good sign for stocks. However, in this particular cycle, we think the time between the last rate hike and the recession will be shorter, and perhaps after the recession starts. In technical terms, a recession has already begun with last week's second quarter GDP release. However, we don't think a true recession can be declared unless the unemployment rate rises by at least a few percentage points. Given the deterioration in profit margins and forward earnings estimates, we think that risk has risen considerably as we are seeing many hiring freezes and even layoffs in certain parts of the economy. This has been most acute in industries affected by higher costs and interest rates and where there's payback in demand from the binge in consumption during the lockdowns. In our conversations with clients over the past few weeks, we've been surprised at how many think a recession was fully priced in June. While talk of recession was rampant during that sell off, and valuations reached our target price earnings ratio of 15.4x, we do not think it properly discounted the earnings damage that will entail if we are actually in a recession right now. As we have noted in that outcome, the earnings revisions which have begun this quarter are likely far from finished in both time or level. Our estimate for S&P 500 earnings going forward in a recession scenario is $195, which is likely to be reached by the first quarter of 2023. Of course, we could still avoid a recession defined as a negative labor cycle, or it might come later next year, which means the Fed pause can happen prior to the arrival of a recession allowing for that bullish window to expand. We remain open minded to any outcome, but our analysis suggests betting on the latter two outcomes is a risky one, especially after the recent rally. The bottom line, last month's rally in stocks was powerful and has investors excited that the bear market is over and looking forward to better times. However, we think it's premature to sound the all-clear with recession and therefore earnings risk is still elevated. For these reasons, we stayed defensively oriented in our equity positioning for now and remain patient with any incremental allocations to stocks. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

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One of the most common standards for investment diversification, the 60:40 portfolio, has faced challenges this year with significant losses and shifting correlations between stocks and bonds. Is this the end of 60:40 allocation?---- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, July 29th, at 2 p.m. in London.The so-called 60:40 portfolio is one of the most common forms of diversified investing, based on the idea of holding a portfolio of 60% equities and 40% high-quality bonds. In theory, the equities provide higher returns over time, while the high-quality bonds provide ballast and diversification, delivering a balanced overall portfolio. But recently, we and many others have been talking about how our estimates suggested historically low returns for this 60:40 type of approach. And frequently these estimates just didn't seem to matter. Global stocks and bonds continued to hum away nicely, delivering unusually strong returns and diversification.And then, all at once, those dour, long term return estimates appeared to come true. From January 1st through June 30th of this year, a 60:40 portfolio of U.S. equities and the aggregate bond index lost about 16% of its value, wiping out all of the portfolio's gains since September of 2020. Portfolios in Europe were a similar story. These moves raise a question: do these large losses, and the fact that they involved stock and bond prices moving in the same direction, mean that diversified portfolios of stocks and bonds are fundamentally broken in an era of tighter policy?Now, one way that 60:40 portfolios could be broken, so to speak, is that they simply can't generate reasonable returns going forward. But on our estimates, this isn't the case. Lower prices for stocks and higher yields on bonds have raised our estimate for what this type of diversified portfolio can return. Leaving those estimates now near the 20-year average.A bigger concern for investors, however, is diversification. The drawdown of 60:40 portfolios this year wasn't necessarily extreme for its magnitude—2002 and 2008 saw larger losses—but rather its uniformity, as both stocks and bonds saw unusually large declines.These fears of less diversification have been given a face, the bond equity correlation. And the story investors are afraid of goes something like this. For most of the last 20 years, bond and equity returns were negatively correlated, moving in opposite directions and diversifying each other. But since 2020, the large interventions of monetary policy into the market have caused this correlation to be positive. Stock and bond prices are now moving in the same direction. The case for diversification is over.This is a tempting story, and it is true that large central bank actions since 2020 have caused stocks and bonds to move together more frequently. But I think there's also a risk of confusing direction and magnitude. Bonds can still be good portfolio diversifiers, even if they aren't quite as good as they've been before.Even if stocks and bonds are now positively correlated, that correlation is still well below 1 to 1. That means there are still plenty of days where they don't move together, and this can matter significantly for how a portfolio behaves, and how diversification is delivered, over time.Another important case for 60:40 style diversification is volatility. Even after one of the worst declines for bond prices in the last 40 years, the trailing one-year volatility of the US aggregate bond index is about 6%. That is one third the volatility of U.S. stocks over the same period. Having 40% of a portfolio in something with one third of the volatility should dampen overall fluctuations. For all these reasons, we think the case for a 60:40 style approach to diversified investing remains.Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 75 basis points. What is driving these above average rate hikes and what might the effect on markets be?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Thursday, July 28th at 4 p.m. in London. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points, and the Nasdaq market index had its best day since April of 2020, rising over 4%. It was a day of big moves, but also some large unanswered questions. A 75 basis point rise in Fed funds is large and unusual. In the last 30 years, the Fed has only raised rates by such a large increment three times. Two of those instances were at the last two Federal Reserve meetings, including the one we had yesterday. These large moves are happening because the Fed is racing to catch up with, and get ahead of, inflation, which is currently running at about 9% in the U.S. In theory, higher fed rate should slow the economy and cool inflationary pressure. But that theory also assumes that higher rates work with a lag, perhaps as long as 12 months. There are a couple of reasons for this, but one is that in theory, higher rates work by making it more attractive to save money rather than spend it today. Well, I checked my savings account today and let's just say the rate increases we've had recently haven't exactly shown up. So the incentives to save are still working their way through the system. This is part of the Fed's predicament. In hockey terms, they're trying to skate the proverbial puck, aiming policy to where inflation and the economy might be in 12 months time. But both inflation and their policy changes are moving very fast. This is not an easy thing to calibrate. Given that difficulty, why did the markets celebrate yesterday with both stock and bond prices rising? Well, the Fed was vague about future rate increases, raising market hopes that the central bank is closer to finishing these rate rises and may soon slow down, or pause, its policy tightening as growth and inflation slow. After all, long term inflation expectations have fallen sharply since the start of May, perhaps suggesting that the Fed has done enough. And as my colleague Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist, noted on Monday's podcast, markets have often seen some respite when the Fed pauses as part of a hiking cycle. But it's also important to stress that the idea that the Fed is now nearly done with its actions seems optimistic. The last two inflation readings were the highest U.S. inflation readings in 40 years, and Morgan Stanley's economists expect core inflation, which is an important measure excluding things like food and energy, to rise yet again in August. In short, the Fed's vagueness of future increases could suggest an all important shift. But it could also suggest genuine uncertainty on growth, inflation and how quickly the Fed's actions will feed through into the economy. The Fed has produced some welcome summer respite, but incoming data is still going to matter, significantly, for what policy looks like at their next meeting in September. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

Grit. That's what Deborah Smith cultivated while growing up on a farm in Australia. And it turns out to have been just the right grounding for this entrepreneur, who went on to be the first in her family to graduate college and eventually to found a boutique investment bank dedicated to serving women. How did she break through in a highly competitive, male-dominated sector? One step at a time, always putting her very best foot forward. On this episode of She Turned Entrepreneur we're learning how to prepare for and assume a seat at the table. Advice from this Deborah, who is a trusted advisor on issues of real estate investment and capitalization: o Always do your homework.o Project confidence.o Speak up! (Or you'll never be heard.)o Don't be afraid to push. o Don't take no for an answer. The journey to build Center Cap, which Deborah co-founded 13 years ago, has offered all kinds of growing edges. At every turn she and her partners have responded to challenge methodically — and fearlessly. There has been no Plan B. Just a vision and commitment to making it all work, including the work-life balance. “Nothing good is ever easy,” says Deborah. “There are no short cuts.” It helps that Center Cap's workplace culture is dominated by a female ethos: Nurturing, positive, encouraging. It enables women, who can tend to be hesitant, to step into confidence and take risks they might not otherwise take. Explains Deborah: “When you have that kind of support network, I think it fundamentally changes how you are in your daily, and particularly professional, life.” Learn how this pioneer in the female-led investment banking space juggles her high-profile job and family (one task at a time) and avoids overwhelm (by not looking at the whole to do list, but breaking it down into bite sized pieces). “We spend too much time thinking about all the machinations and all the things that can go wrong. The ‘what ifs,' ” she says. “Just stop! Go with it and trust that you will figure it out.” Click here to listen to, rate and review this or previous She Turned Entrepreneur episodes. Here are key takeaways from the conversation:· Female energy is real! Women offer a different, more collaborative environment — a zone of safety and support that enables top performance.· Safe, inclusive workplaces correlate with productive risk-taking and growth.· Entrepreneurial ventures require the flexibility to evolve and adapt as conditions on the ground change. · Ignorance is not bliss. But it's part of building a business for the first time and figuring out systems along the way. It takes tenacity!· Trust yourself and just get started. One by one, you'll navigate any obstacles.· What's the worst thing that can happen? Someone doesn't like your idea? Okay. Move on! It's fine.· Look for opportunities! Do your due diligence and be the most prepped person in the room! It's the best way to compensate for any shortcomings.· If you're not talking, no one is listening!· Whatever you take on, determine that you will be the best you can possibly be.· Don't look at the length of your to do-list. Just focus on the next right thing. · Do the easiest tasks on your list first — the items for which no one will cut you slack. Here's a quick look into the episode:· Deborah, who grew up on a dairy farm in Australia, was the first in her family to attend college, after which she immediately went into investment banking without really knowing what it was all about. Working for traditional financial services firms, she rather quickly found herself transferred to the U.S., where she has been ever since.· The three women partners behind the vision for The Center Cap Group, which was founded 13 years ago, come from traditional investment banking backgrounds which they've repurposed to fit their unique vision.· What Deborah believes women bring to the table that sets them apart:o A different perspective.o A nurturing, collaborative approach.o The ability to celebrate each other's wins and support each other in losses.o A high level of trust.· Workplace cultures that provide safety enable women — who can tend to be wary of risk — to push the envelope and extend beyond their comfort zones.· Center Cap's early years called upon everyone to wear multiple hats while establishing credibility and trusted advisor status within the wider real estate investment community.· Deborah believes the reason many small businesses fail to survive is a lack of adaptability and readiness to bring onboard the tools necessary to succeed.· What tenacity looks like — and why it's so critical for entrepreneurs! · Advice for women working in or running businesses in a male-dominated field:o Merit trumps everything else. If you're good at your job, you own it.o Be confident in who you are because, if you're not, no one else will be.o Take charge of what you're doing. o If you want something, push. Don't take no for an answer.o If you have an idea, step up and take the lead!The worst thing that will happen is that someone responds negatively. o Be forceful. If you hesitate, others will fill the gap. · How to shine in a meeting? Do your due diligence:o Understand who is in the room.o Understand what the topics are.o Look for the angles where you can contribute.· One step at a time and do your utmost best at every step along the way!· Deborah's trick for keeping it all together? Break everything — including home and family — into bite-size pieces. Don't look at the length of the list!· Work-life balance demands exceptional multi-tasking. Manage the low-hanging fruit first! It's immediate gratification (and people will be harder on you if you drop the easy tasks)!· An avid reader, Deborah's Recommended Reading includes: o "Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance," by Angela Duckworth.o "Room on the Broom: A Push, Pull and Slide Book," by Julia Donaldson and Axel Scheffler. (A staple of her children's library)o "What Confucius Didn't Say," by Tom Pallant.· Things change: 25 years ago Deborah eschewed anything English-related, but today she's an avid reader who also generates articles and various other kinds of content. About Deborah:Deborah is Co-Founder and CEO of The CenterCap Group, LLC and heads the firm's Strategic Capital and M&A and Execution efforts. Prior to forming The CenterCap Group, LLC, she was Co-Head of M&A and a Senior Managing Director with CB Richard Ellis Investors. Deborah joined CBREI in July 2007 to co-head the build out of the firm's M&A efforts and led the firm's negotiation and acquisition of a majority interest in Wood Partners (one of the largest multifamily developers in the United States) in 2008. From 1998-2007, Ms. Smith worked on mergers and acquisitions with Lehman Brothers, Wachovia Securities and Morgan Stanley. Deborah has been involved in more than $100 billion of mergers, acquisitions and restructuring transactions. Ms. Smith has a Bachelor of Economics, with honors, and a Bachelor of Law, with honors, from the University of Sydney.

Ken McGill with Rockport Analytics and chief economist for the ACEC Research Institute joined the podcast to discuss the Fed's 75 basis-point interest rate hike and what it means for the economy and the engineering sector.    Host: Hi there, and welcome to the engineering influence podcast from the American Council of Engineering Companies. I'm Allison Schneider, ACEC's Director of Media Relations, and I'm joined today by Ken McGill of Rockport Analytics to discuss today's announcement that the Fed will once again raise interest rates. Ken also serves as chief economist for the ACEC Research Institute, which provides original research and analysis on topics vital to the business of engineering. Ken, thanks for being here. Ken McGill: Thank you, Allison. Host: Now let's jump right into it. Today, The Fed announced an interest rate hike of three-quarters of a percentage point. That's the same as they did in June. Now, this is the fourth rate increase in five months. Talk to us about what the Fed is seeing in the economy to take this action. Ken McGill: Well, clearly they're focusing on fighting inflation and, I think the CPI reading of 9.1% last month certainly was worrisome for all of us, but the Fed paid very close attention to that. And, that was at least part of the reason for a 75 basis point increase in the fed funds rate. Having said that, they're also aware that the economy — some of the real measures of the economy — are beginning to slow spending and even employment to some extent and some of the high-frequency measures of inflation are actually beginning to fall off of their peaks. So I think that was the reason that many of the analysts that thought we were going to a 100 basis point increase turned out to be incorrect. Host: This is of course going to make borrowing money more expensive. How do you see this announcement affecting our members? Ken McGill: Yes, absolutely. The increase in borrowing costs is going to hurt many sectors of the economy, construction and housing being one of the more dominant ones and one of the ones that get hit very quickly of course. When we talk about rising borrowing costs, you can think about the housing side that that's certainly going to cut into demand because affordability for mortgage rates alone becomes lower. First-time buyers certainly have more trouble coming into the market. Ken McGill: Particularly in the face of the increases in home prices that we've seen. On the other hand, when you think about non-res construction borrowing costs, there are also significant and there are knock-on effects that affect the pricing of materials and labor, as well as, you know, elevated in interest rates begin to permeate through the economy. Ken McGill: So, yeah, it's, it's not a good thing for construction. The question really is, um, things will begin to turn negative. Some of the indicators already have, as we all know, it's a question of just really how fast and how far things will fall off. Now for our members, as many of them know, A/E services tends to lead construction activity, and my guess would be that some of the construction indicators that are already beginning to weaken which suggest that they're already seeing in some of their bookings some weakness as well. They'll also lead us into the recovery that we will see as soon as inflation begins to fall off into and get closer to the Fed's target range of 2%. Host: You mentioned that target range. The fed has the dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. We know the labor market is going strong, but inflation data showed prices soared to 9.1% in June. It seems like with this action, the Fed's trying to walk a tight rope to slow inflation without increasing unemployment. Can you talk about that a little bit? Ken McGill: Absolutely. Their dual mandate — and it is a tight rope. When you think about the fact that those two things can actually be inversely related. Said differently, you know, fighting inflation with either increasing interest rates or going through quantitative tightening, which they're also doing right now, that slows economic activity. That's the point of raising those rates and the finesse part of it on the part of Chairman Powell and the rest of the Fed governors is just how quickly to attack inflation with rising rates or quantitative tightening such that the damage to the real side of the economy, employment and spending in particular is as small or as inconsequential as possible. It's a tight rope. And that's why analysts are constantly arguing about the difference between a rate increase of 50 basis points versus 75 versus a hundred. Those numbers sound fairly small, but they have huge implications for the real side of the economy. Host: With the way things are headed, there's been talk of a recession. Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the 2008 crash, said "The idea that this is going to be short and shallow is totally delusional." His warnings go against, we should say, other predictions on Wall Street for a mild recession, including those from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The Biden administration is reluctant to say a recession is on the way. What are your thoughts there? Ken McGill: I tend to lean towards the consensus that sees frankly, a recession coming, probably early in 2023 will be the start. But I also agree that it should be mild. And part of that, that logic is really taking a look at the real side of the economy right now. Employment, as you noted, is, has been very strong and should continue to be that way in particular, particularly because we've seen strength in manufacturing. But we're also seeing a lot of strength in service employment, be it leisure and hospitality or professional and business services. That's where the job strength has been these last 6, 8, 9 months. And that bodes well for consumer spending and confidence moving forward. So when you take a look at that, it's hard to imagine that consumption will fall off the edge of a cliff. It's hard to imagine that business investment — which lags that and follows it in the economic cycle — that it will completely dry up. Ken McGill: We've seen, inflation indicators, as I mentioned before, already beginning to suggest that we've seen a peak and things are starting to cool down. That will raise well, that will slow any losses in real income that consumers are seeing by the fact that if inflation is sort of eating away at their paycheck. Wages are still rising at a rate slower than, let's say ,the beginning of this year, but they're still rising. And if the Fed is successful in pushing, beginning to push inflation down, real wages will turn positive as well. And that bodes well for spending in the future. So I'd look at the real side of the economy and it's just, it looks strong enough to weather these fed actions. And if it does get pushed into a recession, it will be a mild one. Host: You talked about weathering these Fed actions. There's been talk that they will continue to raise interest rates through the end of the year. Do you have any preview on what we should be looking for or what we might expect? Ken McGill: Well, you know, we all tend to watch the same indicators that the Fed governors do. And, those indicators are suggesting, as I said, a slow down a cool off period, if you will. And in our minds, in our team anyway, we've looked at it and thought, "Okay, the fed will raise again in September and end November, frankly." And, but those, those increases will be slower. They'll be smaller. Maybe we'll see a Fed funds rate of maybe 4% by the end of the year. So, you know, whether they, they do a lot of that change from the two, two and a quarter, two and a half percent that we are now, to that 4% could happen, could be front loaded in other words. It's a function of watching those indicators and of course the monthly and weekly indicators of inflation. They'll probably stop in raising rates at the end of this year because the economy will have slowed enough and inflation will cooled enough to convince them that they should probably remain neutral for a while. If we do head down into a mild recession, maybe even more modest recession, they may actually start to loosen. Again, some analysts out there are calling for by the end of 2023, a hundred basis point decline in the Fed funds rate. So, you know, they're definitely watching inflation and watching the potential for a recession. And I think they'll adjust rate increases and eventually decreases accordingly. Host: Those are really great insights. Is there anything else you think our members should be aware of? Ken McGill: Well, I, I think I would strongly suggest that everyone keep an eye on the pandemic. In other words, there are non-economic risks out there to, to the outlook, both for inflation and for the potential for a recession. The pandemic is not over it's. You know, we're starting to see some of these variants take hold again. I think we still have these geopolitical challenges like the war Ukraine, and the fallout from that war — that could impact a lot of the thinking behind the Fed and the actual results that we see in economic growth and inflation. And finally, you know, watch those commodity prices. Everyone seems to watch oil prices or at least gasoline prices on a daily basis. We're already seeing them fall. I'm sure everyone's noticed that the price at the pump is down about 50 cents per gallon over the last, few months — actually a few weeks — and commodity prices are also starting to fall. That's good news for construction materials and supplies. It's also good news on the inflation front in general. So watch those non-economic factors that are out there, geopolitical risks and, and the pandemic itself. And then keep an eye on, on, commodity prices. I think they're a good indicator of, of where things are going for inflation in the near term. Host: Ken, thanks as always for your insights. There's a lot to watch here. So I have a feeling you'll be joining us again soon. This has been another installment of ACEC's engineering influence podcast. Thanks to our guest, Ken McGill of Rockport Analytics and chief economist for the ACEC research Institute. I'm Alison Schneider. Thanks for listening.  

Melissa Giles, Director of Portfolio Management with Americana Partners presents the Monthly Market Commentary as written by, David M Darst, Chief Investment Officer with Americana Partners.  Any charts/graphs referenced are available in print format and may be provided at your request. David is currently the Chief Investment Officer for Americana Partners. David served for 17 years as a Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, with responsibility for Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy; was the founding President of the Morgan Stanley Investment Group; and was founding Chairman of the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Asset Allocation Committee. After 2014, he served for several years as Senior Advisor to and a member of the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Committee. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1996 from Goldman Sachs, where he held Senior Management posts within the Equities Division and earlier, for six years as Resident Manager of their Private Bank in Zurich. David is the Author of twelve books: (i) The Complete Bond Book (McGraw-Hill); (ii) The Handbook of the Bond and Money Markets (McGraw-Hill); (iii) The Art of Asset Allocation, Second Edition (McGraw-Hill); (iv) Mastering the Art of Asset Allocation (McGraw-Hill); (v) Benjamin Graham on Investing (McGraw-Hill); (vi) The Little Book that Saves Your Assets (John Wiley & Sons), which was ranked on the bestseller lists of The New York Times and Business Week; (vii) Portfolio Investment Opportunities in China (John Wiley & Sons); and (x) Portfolio Investment Opportunities in Precious Metals (John Wiley & Sons). His works have been translated into Chinese, Japanese, Russian, German, Korean, Italian, Indonesian, Norwegian, Romanian, and Vietnamese. Seapoint Books published David's eleventh book in 2012 , Voyager 3, containing his creative writing, and in 2016, his twelfth book, Flim-Flam Flora, a children's book coauthored with his daughter. David appears as a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX, PBS, and other television channels, and has contributed numerous articles to Barron's Euromoney, The Money Manager, Forbes.com, The Yale Economic Review, and other publications. He has broadcast and written extensively on asset allocation in the Morgan Stanley biweekly Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation Commentary and in the Firm's Wealth Management monthly publication, Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy Digest, the predecessors of which he launched in 1997. David attended Father Ryan High School in Nashville, Tennessee, graduated from Phillips Exeter Academy, was awarded a BA degree in Economics from Yale University, and earned his MBA from Harvard Business School. David serves on the Investment Committee of the Phi Beta Kappa Foundation and the Advisory Boards of the George Washington Institute for Religious Freedom and the Black Rock Arts Foundation. David has lectured extensively at Wharton, Columbia, INSEAD, and New York University Business Schools, and for nine years, David served as a visiting faculty member at Yale College, Yale School of Management, and Harvard Business School. In November 2011, David was inducted by Quinnipiac University in their Business Leaders Hall of Fame. David is a CFA Charterholder and a member of the New York Society of Security Analysts and the CFA Institute. Join Our Distribution List – For a full copy of our report. 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A copy of Americana Partners' current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, Americana Partners' business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. The tax and legal information contained in this newsletter is general in nature. It should not be construed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Foreign securities, foreign currencies, and securities issued by U.S. entities with substantial foreign operations can involve additional risks relating to political, economic, or regulatory conditions in foreign countries. These risks include fluctuations in foreign currencies; withholding or other taxes; trading, settlement, custodial, and other operational risks; and less stringent investor protection and disclosure standards in some foreign markets. 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While midterm polls have shown a preference for republican candidates, this lead is narrowing as the election grows closer, and the full ramifications of this ever evolving race remain to be seen.-----Transcript-----Welcome the Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy and financial markets. It's Wednesday, July 27th, at 1 p.m. in New York. We're still months away from the midterm elections, and polls still show strong prospects for Republicans to win back control of Congress. As we previously discussed, such an outcome could result in stalling key policy variables for markets such, as tax changes and regulations for tech and cryptocurrency. But remember not to assume that such an outcome is a sure thing. Take, for example, recent polls showing voters' preference for Republican congressional candidates over Democrats actually narrowing. A month ago, the average polling lead for Republicans was nearly 3%, it's now closer to 0.5%. Some independent forecasting models even now show the Democrats as a slight favorite to hold the Senate, even as they assess Democrats are unlikely to keep control of the House. The reasons for Democrats' improvement in the polls are up for debate, but that's not the point for investors. In our view, the point is that the race is still evolving and that can have market ramifications. Even if Democrats don't ultimately keep control of Congress, making it a closer race means markets may have to account for a higher probability that certain policies get enacted. Take corporate tax hikes, for example. Recent news suggests they're off the table, but if Democrats hold Congress, it's likely they'd be revisited as a means of funding several of their preferred initiatives. That could pressure a U.S. equity market already wary of margin pressures from inflation and slowing growth. A more constructive example is the clean tech sector. Again, reports are that the plan to allocate money to clean energy is off the table, but this could be revisited if Democrats keep control. Hence, improved Democratic prospects could benefit the sector ahead of the election. The bottom line is that the midterm elections are still a market factor over the next few months. We'll keep you in the loop right here about how it all plays out. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

This week's Misfit Entrepreneur is Mike Smerklo. Mike is a serial entrepreneur, investor, and founder of Next Coast Ventures, a unique venture capital firm that focuses on emerging companies heling them in the critical stage to hyper growth. After working in investment banking at Morgan Stanley, Mike was then recruited by Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz to one of their new startups. In 2003, Mike purchased ServiceSource, a 30-person tech services startup and over the next 12 years grew it to a 3000 person publicly traded company with over $300 million in revenue and a market value of $1 billion. After exiting the company, he founded Next Coast, investing in over 40 startups to date and recently wrote the best-seller, Mr. Monkey and Me. Needless to say, Mike has a wealth of experience as an owner/operator and investor, and I am excited for him to share it with you. www.MikeSmerklo.com Mike grew in a rough part of Toledo, Ohio. He was raised by a single mom and had a simple goal which was to just get out. His mom focused him on education as no one had to gone to college in the family. He listened and ended up going to Miami of Ohio. After college, he went to E&Y as an auditor and found quickly he hated it. He then went to Lehman Brothers in investment banking. It sucked the life out of him, but he learned a lot before going to business school and then eventually out to Silicon Valley. He worked for Andreessen Horowitz, bought and ran ServiceSource until he sold it and the “retired” to Austin, Texas. Retirement didn't last long before he started Next Coast. What makes a great business? The short answer is “Do you do something for your customer that is a differentiating approach?” Do you bring a different and unique experience to the customer that they are willing to pay for once or multiple times? We overcomplicate things in our lives, especially business. You wrote Mr. Monkey and Me as a story of your journey with ServiceSource and lessons learned. Take us through the different lessons you learned. The goal was to write a book that got to the mental aspect of entrepreneurship. He not only drew on his experience, but also interviewed top entrepreneurs. The “monkey” is the voice in entrepreneur's heads that holds them back, The core of the book is the SHAPE formula. Self-Awareness Help Authenticity Persistence Expectations Take us through each element of the shape formula and define them. Self-Awareness: The ability to understand strengths and weaknesses and what the entrepreneur should focus energy on to improve. Help: Seeking mentors and coaching to help improve, but also finding those that are better in areas to help in the business. Authenticity: Finding your inner voice. How do you show up as the leader that you want to be and is natural? Persistence: Playing the long game and having the will to continue. Expectations: Thinking about the beginning, middle, and end of the journey and the different expectations needed at each stage. At the 14 min mark, we talk more about SHAPE and persistence more in depth. Lessons from working with Andreessen Horowitz that have really helped in your success? Each of them taught him different things. It was also early in their days in 1999. It felt a little like chaos. From Mark, Mike learned the power of thinking big and not taking half-measures. Ben taught Mike a lot about management. The best “how to be a manager book” is Management by Objectives by Andy Grove. Ben also shared that the first 25 employees hired in a company is all that matters. If you get those right, the culture, ethos, etc. will be set by those first 25. 40+ investments at Next Coast. Talk to us about your model and what you look for when investing a company. Market size is a factor. Does the solution differentiate and are customers willing to pay for it? Will they see real value? What do the economics look like and do they make sense? But 90% of it comes down to the entrepreneur. They use a term called “glass-eater.” Which is asking “Is the entrepreneur willing to do anything and everything, legally and ethically, to make the business a success building a real business – and do they know what it takes to do it?” Next Coast looks at over 1000 companies a year to find just a few. Things that get overlooked are that entrepreneurs have to be able to sell and have to be good at telling the story. “Great entrepreneurs can't imagine the world without their solution.” At the same time, entrepreneurs have to be willing to take feedback and advice. Entrepreneurs also overlook substitutes and inertia as competition.Things that are not direct competitors but are taking customers attention. What are market trends and things that are upcoming that entrepreneurs should be focused on? Each year, Next Coast does a lot of work to understand where the world is going. Future of work is still a strong theme. Work continues to be redefined. There is a still a lot of opportunity in the changing game of retail. Software is another good place. Healthcare hacking is big. Consumers taking more control over their health. Education is another place that is at the start of a big shift. Where do you see the future of work and the changes that will happen? Figuring out what a physical presence looks like. Great talent is everywhere and not having to have a complete physical presence makes it easier to get it. Challenges are managing in a hybrid work environment. Creating a cohesive culture in this new environment. Things are being reshaped. Another big trend is monetizing data. What is software 3.0 and how it is changing growth models…  It is still very early for software. It has gotten much easier to write software. Software 3.0 is no code, APIs, businesses that have software becoming a much bigger part of it. Enterprise is more saturated but using software in all aspects of life is just beginning. Next Coast invested in Everlywell which is healthcare hacking software which allows you to take a test a home on over 30 different things and then get results through software online. What do you think is most important for entrepreneurs to focus on in their business? The customer – they are everything. The entrepreneur must focus on their health – mental and physical. Best advice for entrepreneurs just starting out? Self-awareness is the cornerstone. Understand what you are good and not good at. It is better to play to your strengths than correct your weaknesses.   Best Quote: Great entrepreneurs can't imagine the world without their solution.   Mike's Misfit 3: Be nice. The world needs it now more than ever. Comparison is the thief of joy. Envy wastes emotion and drains you. It is easy to live a hard life. It is hard to live an easy life.   Show Sponsors NordPass Get 70% off a 2-Year Premium Plan and 1 month Free! Go to www.Nordpass.com/Misfit or use the Promo Code: Misfit at check out. Starr Peak Mining To learn more about Starr Peak Mining and stay up to date with the company's success, go www.StarrPeakMiningLtd.com or check out ticker symbol TSX:STE.V

Max Keiser & Stacy Herbert present the first global English language macro economic and bitcoin news out of El SalvadorIn this ninth episode of MAX & STACY REPORT, they are joined by Jimmy Song to discuss why altcoins are like the IMF and they discuss Jimmy's work training the first group of bitcoin programmers in El SalvadorIn the headlines, Max and Stacy look at the report out of Morgan Stanley arguing for investors to buy El Salvador's debt

As young, digitized consumers have popularized the “Buy Now, Pay Later” payment system across global markets, there may yet be related market opportunities in Latin America.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jorge Kuri, Morgan Stanley's Latin America Financials Analyst. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the rise of Buy Now, Pay Later, or BNPL, in Latin America. It's Tuesday, July 26th, at 2 p.m. in New York. As many of you no doubt remember, the COVID lockdowns of 2020 and 2021 were boom times for e-commerce, as quarantines made us all habitual online shoppers. This period also helped fuel the Buy Now, Pay Later payment method, which allows online shoppers the ability to make a purchase and defer payments over several installments with no fees or interest when paid on time. Buy Now, Pay Later first gained traction in New Zealand and Australia, then in Europe and most recently in the U.S. and now BNPL could offer a vast market opportunity in Latin America. In fact, we see volumes reaching $23 billion in Mexico and $21 billion in Brazil by 2026. So let's take a closer look at why. BNPL in Latin America is driven by a number of secular tailwinds, starting with favorable demographics: BNPL appeals to young, digitalized consumers who fuel the electronification of payments and e-commerce. Combine that with low credit penetration, growing consumer awareness and merchant acceptance, and you have a recipe for strong and sustainable multi-year growth. Mexico and Brazil offer the most attractive market opportunities within Latin America. In Mexico, the population is very young and digitalized - 65% is 39 years old or younger, and smartphone penetration among individuals 18 to 34 years is 83%. Yet the population of unbanked adults is quite large, 51% do not have a bank account and 80% do not have a credit card. Digitalization of payments is a big tailwind, as cash remains by far the most frequently used payment method, while e-commerce penetration is expected to double and reach 20% by 2026.In Brazil, the situation is a bit different. Similar to Mexico, the population is young and digitalized. But in contrast, credit penetration is higher in Brazil, with 75% of households utilizing at least one form of credit and one or more credit cards. The ubiquity and effectiveness of PIX, the instant payments ecosystem in Brazil, combined with the large and fast growing e-commerce industry and the boom in fintech companies, could facilitate the distribution and acceptance of BNPL in the country.It's worth noting that the BNPL opportunity does not come without risks. Delinquency risk is obvious given the unsecured nature of the product, adverse selection risks and a challenging macroeconomic environment. Most BNPL providers have some funding disadvantages and competition among both BNPL players and incumbent banks will likely ensue. Despite these various risks, BNPL remains one of the most significant multi-year trends to watch in Latin America financials. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy this show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

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Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer began the hour by hitting the market action with stocks still on pace for their best month of the year. They also mentioned Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen telling NBC's Meet the Press over the weekend that “this is not an economy that's in recession.” The anchors then shifted their focus to the NFL, launching its own streaming service NFL+, which starts a $4.99 per month. Staying with media, they also mentioned SNAP getting double downgraded at Morgan Stanley from “overweight” to “underweight” with an $8 price target following last week's dismal earnings report. Also in focus: Goldman Sachs cut its earnings outlook for the MSCI China stock index to zero growth for the year.

As markets grapple with pricing in inflation, central bank rate hikes, and slowing growth, can the recent S&P 500 rally help investors gauge what may happen next for equities?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, July 25th, at 11 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it. Since the June lows at 3650, the S&P 500 has been range trading between those lows and 3950. However, this past week, the S&P 500 peaked its head above the 50 day moving average, even touching 4000 for a few hours. While we aren't convinced this is anything but a bear market rally, it does beg the question is something going on here that could make this a more sustainable low and even the end to the bear market? First, from a fundamental standpoint, we are more convicted in our view that S&P 500 earnings estimates are too high, and they have at least 10% downside from the recent peak of $240/share. So far, that forecast has only dropped by 0.5%, making it difficult for us to agree with that view that the market has already priced it. Of course, we could also be wrong about the earnings risk and perhaps the current $238 is an accurate reflection of reality. However, with most of our leading indicators on growth rolling over, we continue to think this is not the case, and disappointing growth remains the more important variable to watch for stocks at this point, rather than inflation or the Fed's reaction to it. Having said that, we do agree with the narrative that inflation has likely peaked from a rate of change standpoint, with commodities as the best real time evidence of that claim. We think the equity market is smart enough to understand this too, and more importantly, that growth is quickly becoming a problem. Therefore, part of the recent rally may be the equity market looking forward to the Fed's eventual attempt to save the cycle from recession. With time running short on that front. And looking at past cycles, there's always a period between the Fed's last hike and the eventual recession. More importantly, this period has been a good time to be long equities. In short, the equity market always rallies when the Fed pauses tightening campaign prior to the oncoming recession. The point here is that if the market is starting to think the Fed's about to pause rate hikes after this week's, this would provide the best fundamental rationale for why equity markets have rallied over the past few weeks despite the disappointing fundamental news and why it may signal a more durable low. The problem with this thinking, in our view, is it's unlikely the Fed is going to pause early enough to save the cycle. While we appreciate that investors may be trying to leap ahead here to get in front of what could be a bullish signal for equity prices remain skeptical that the Fed can reverse the negative trends for demand that are already now well-established, some of which have nothing to do with monetary policy. Furthermore, the demand destructive nature of high inflation is presenting itself today will not easily disappear even if inflation declined sharply. This is because prices are already out of reach in areas of the economy that are critical for this cycle to extend in areas like housing and autos, food, gasoline and other necessities. Secondarily, high inflation provides a real constraint for the Fed to pause or pivot, even if they decided a risk of recession was imminent. That's the main difference versus more recent cycles and why we think it remains a good idea to stay defensively oriented in one's equity positioning until further earnings disappointments are factored into consensus estimates or equity prices. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people to find the show.

Xenios Charalambous is the Founder of Xeniosfitness.com and creator of the Spartan Coaching™ program. He coached A-List celebrities while he was in London, partnered with X-Factor, Google, Morgan Stanley, and Amazon to train their executives, and he has been through 2 years of training in the special forces. Most importantly, Xenios specializes in designing sustainable fitness solutions to help busy individuals get fit and healthy. Connect with Jon Dwoskin: Twitter: @jdwoskin Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/jonathan.dwoskin Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thejondwoskinexperience/ Website: https://jondwoskin.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jondwoskin/ Email: jon@jondwoskin.com Get Jon's Book: The Think Big Movement: Grow your business big. Very Big!   Connect with Xenios Charalambous: Website: https://www.xeniosfitness.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/fitnessxenioscharalambous YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/Xeniosfitnesstv Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/xenios_charalambous/

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This week the European Central Bank surprised economists and investors alike with a higher than anticipated rate hike, so why this hike and what comes next? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief European Economist Jens Eisenschmidt discuss.-----Transcript-----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Morgan Stanley's Chief Europe Economist. Andrew Sheets: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the market will be discussing the recent ECB rate hike and the path ahead. It's Friday, July 22nd at 4 p.m. in London. Andrew Sheets: So, Jens, I want to talk to you about the ECB's big rate decision yesterday. But before we do that, I think we should start by laying the scene of the European economy. In a nutshell, how is Europe's economy doing and what do you think are the most salient points for investors to be aware of? Jens Eisenschmidt: Great question, Andrew. We have revised downwards our growth outlook for the euro area economy on the back of the reduced gas flow coming out from Russia into Germany starting at some point in mid-June. And we are now seeing a mild recession for the euro area economy setting in towards the end of this year and the beginning of next. This is in stark contrast to what the ECB, as early as June, has been saying the euro area economy would look like. I think incoming data, since our call for a bit more muted economic outlook, has been on the negative side. So for instance, we just today had the PMIs in contractionary territory. So the PMIs are the Purchasing Managers Indexes, which are soft indicators of economic activity. Soft because are survey evidence they're essentially questions ask industry participants about what they see on their side, and out of these questions an index is derived for economic activity. So all in all, the outlook is relatively muted, as I said, and I think a recession is clearly in the cards. Andrew Sheets: But Jens, why is growth in Europe so weak? When you think about things like that big decline in PMI that we just saw this week, what's driving that? What do you think is the key thing that maybe other forecasters might be missing in terms of driving this weakness? Jens Eisenschmidt: I mean, Europe is very, very close to one of the largest, geopolitical conflicts of our time. We have, as a consequence of that, to deal with very high energy prices. The dependance on Russian gas, for instance, is very high in several parts of Western Europe. But you're right, we have still accommodative monetary policy, so, all in all, we still have positive and negative factors, but we think that the negative factors are starting now to have the bigger weight in all this. And we have seen for the first time, as you just mentioned to PMI's in contractionary territory, while we are of course having a bit in the service sector, a different picture which is still driven from reopening dynamics coming out from COVID. So everybody wants to have a holiday after they didn't have one last year and the year before. Andrew Sheets: So I guess speaking of holidays, it involves a lot of driving, a lot of flying. I think that's a good segway into the energy story in Europe. This has been a really challenging dynamic because you've had obviously the risk of energy being cut off into Europe. When you think about modeling scenarios of less energy being available via Russia, how do you go about modeling that and what could the impact be? Jens Eisenschmidt: No, that's really the hard part here. Because, ultimately, if the energy is flowing and continues to flow, you can rely on data that goes back and that gives you some relationship between the price and then what the impact on economic activity on that price schedule will be. But if energy is falling to levels where governments have to decide duration, then the modeling becomes so much harder because you have to decide then in your model who gets gas or oil and at what price. That makes it very hard and it also explains why there's a huge range of model outcomes out there showing GDP impact for some economies as deep, in terms of contraction, of 10 to 15%. We are not in that camp. We think that even in a situation of a total cut off of, say, Russian gas, the euro area economy would contract, but not as deeply. Part of that is that we think that some time has elapsed since the threat has first become a possibility and the system has adjusted to some extent. And then what you get is a system that's a little bit more resilient now to a cut than it may have been in March. Andrew Sheets: Jens. I think that's also a good connection to the inflation story. So on one hand, inflation dynamics in Europe look quite similar to the U.S. On the other hand those inflation dynamics seem somewhat different from the U.S., core inflation is not as high, wage inflation is not as high. Could you kind of walk us through a bit of how you see that inflation story in Europe and how it's similar or different to what we see going on in the U.S.? Jens Eisenschmidt: There is clearly a difference here, and I think the ECB has never been tiring in stressing that difference that most of the inflation here in Europe is driven by external factors. And here, of course, energy is the big elephant in the room. It's not helped by the fact that we had a depreciation of the Euro against the U.S. dollar and most of the energy is, as we know, a built in U.S. dollar. We also have a significant food inflation, and of course, it's also linked very, very tightly to the conflict in Ukraine, where we have Ukraine as a big food exporter. Just think of oil, think of wheat, all these things that are in the headlines. So that's structurally different from a situation in the U.S. where you do have a significant part of the inflation being internal demand driven. And of course that leads to interconnection with a very tight labor market to a higher core inflation. Now core inflation in the euro area has also been picking up and it's certainly not at levels where the European Central Bank can be happy with. But, you know, all in all, both our set of assumptions and forecasts as well as the ECB's in the end boil down to a slight overshoot in the medium term of their inflation target. Andrew Sheets: So Jens, all of this brings us back to the main event, so to speak. The European Central Bank raised interest rates yesterday for the first time since 2011, and it was a pretty large increase. It was a half a percentage point increase. So what's driving the ECB thinking here and how is it trying to weigh all these different factors, in a world where rates are rising? Jens Eisenschmidt: So indeed, the ECB yesterday ended its negative rates policy, which was designed for a completely different environment, an environment of a persistent undershoot of its inflation target. By all available measures, they are now at target or above. So that in itself justifies ending this policy, and this is what they did yesterday. Now, of course, there is a concern that the high inflation that we see today is feeding into wage negotiations, is feeding into a process of more structurally higher inflation, and that risks the anchoring inflation expectations. So there is a need, even if you see the economy going weaker, there is a need to tighten its monetary policy. At the same time, they have this geopolitical conflict just very near to them. They have the risk to growth that we were talking about before. So that also means you cannot just now go out and line out a significant path of rate increases. So that leads to the second component of their decision yesterday. So they were say we will go meeting by meeting and we will be data dependent in our move. Andrew Sheets: So Jens, let's bring this back to markets. When you look at what markets are currently expecting from the ECB in terms of rate hikes out over the next, say, 18 months, do you think the ECB is likely to deliver more tightening than those rates imply or deliver rates that are lower than those current market expectations? Jens Eisenschmidt: So if you just talk about where markets see the ECB peaking, that's at 1.5%. We agree, just that we don't agree on the timing. So we, for instance, see the ECB going 50 basis points in September, but then slowing down to 25 in October and another 25 in December. And then we really see the ECB pausing until September next year. And the pause is introduced because the economy is weakening and significantly so, and we see this centered around the end of the year. Now in the markets, there is a bit of an assumption that the ECB will be more aggressive in terms of getting to the 1.5% earlier. Not necessarily still this year, but at some point early next year. Andrew Sheets: And just from the perspective of markets, you know, this is a reason why Morgan Stanley's foreign exchange team thinks that the euro will continue to weaken against the dollar. It's both a function of Jens your weak growth forecasts, but also potentially this idea that rates won't rise in Europe quite as fast as the market is expecting. Which would mean somewhat less support for the currency. Andrew Sheets: Jens, thanks for taking the time to talk. Jens Eisenschmidt: Thanks a lot, Andrew. It was a pleasure being with you. Andrew Sheets: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people find the show.

Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the surging NASDAQ and whether tech is a buy ahead of earnings. Plus, Morgan Stanley raises guidance on REITs, the Committee weigh in on the sector. And later, some Calls of the Day in the chip sector, what names are worth a look?

Have you heard? Minivans are cool again, and one of our listeners wants to know why she can’t find a minivan for sale at reasonable price. Our minivan-driving host has answers. Plus, we’ll take your questions about ethanol, consumer spending here and abroad, along with how we’re all managing to still go to work amid everything happening around us. Here’s everything we talked about today: Consumer spending by country from CEIC Data “Chinese consumer spending is set to double by 2030, Morgan Stanley predicts” from CNBC “How Ethanol and E15 Gas Fit Into Biden’s Plans to Fight Inflation” from The Washington Post Ethanol explained from U.S. Energy Information Administration “Is ethanol really worse than gasoline? The debate, revisited.” from Vox “The minivan is kind of making a comeback this summer” from Marketplace “People Are Finding It Hard to Focus on Work Right Now” from The Atlantic If you’ve got a question you’d like us to find the answer to, email us at makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voice message at (508) 827-6278 or (508) U-B-SMART.

Have you heard? Minivans are cool again, and one of our listeners wants to know why she can’t find a minivan for sale at reasonable price. Our minivan-driving host has answers. Plus, we’ll take your questions about ethanol, consumer spending here and abroad, along with how we’re all managing to still go to work amid everything happening around us. Here’s everything we talked about today: Consumer spending by country from CEIC Data “Chinese consumer spending is set to double by 2030, Morgan Stanley predicts” from CNBC “How Ethanol and E15 Gas Fit Into Biden’s Plans to Fight Inflation” from The Washington Post Ethanol explained from U.S. Energy Information Administration “Is ethanol really worse than gasoline? The debate, revisited.” from Vox “The minivan is kind of making a comeback this summer” from Marketplace “People Are Finding It Hard to Focus on Work Right Now” from The Atlantic If you’ve got a question you’d like us to find the answer to, email us at makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voice message at (508) 827-6278 or (508) U-B-SMART.

Interest in ESG investing has risen exponentially in recent years, leading to increased scrutiny around, and appreciation for, the hard data. Head of U.S. Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy Michael Zezas and Head of the ESG Fixed Income Research Team Carolyn Campbell discuss.-----Transcript-----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, head of U.S. Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy. Carolyn Campbell: And I'm Carolyn Campbell, head of the ESG fixed income research team at Morgan Stanley. Michael Zezas: And on this special edition of the podcast, we'll be assessing the next phase of the environmental, social, governance, ESG, market. It's Wednesday, July 20th, at 10 a.m. in New York. Michael Zezas: As some listeners may have read, in late May of this year, the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed new rules that would require ESG funds to disclose their goals, criteria and strategies, along with data measuring ESG progress. And this tells us that although the market for ESG investing has grown, so has investor desire to see real data and empirical analysis on impact. And this could be seen as really the next phase of the ESG market, that companies and funds won't just claim to be focused on ESG but will provide real proof. So, Carolyn, just to set the stage, I notice that people sometimes use the term sustainable investing and ESG interchangeably. So, I think it might be good to start with what exactly ESG is. Carolyn Campbell: At its core ESG is about adding a new lens to risk management in our investment practices by looking at environmental, social and governance factors in addition to our traditional financial metrics and whatnot. ESG has been around in some way, shape or form for decades, beginning with what we call negative exclusions. Initially, that looked like excluding companies that conflicted with religious views such as gambling, alcohol or pornography. But it's probably best known more recently for what we would think of as the fossil fuel divestment movement; selling out of coal and oil and gas companies, for example. On the other end of the spectrum, we've got impact investing where money is put towards projects that are both worthy financial investments but are also meant to generate some type of positive impact, whether it be environmental or social. In between, ESG can look like a lot of things, whether that's selecting companies that are best in class or building a portfolio geared towards a certain theme like biodiversity, net zero or gender diversity. Michael Zezas: Now, you're a fixed income strategist and ESG investing through the bond market is a bit newer and still evolving. What are some of the challenges of investing in ESG through bonds as opposed to stocks? Carolyn Campbell: Well, so one big difference in fixed income is that there are products that are actually dedicated sustainability assets. Companies, governments and super nationals can issue bonds that are specifically ESG instruments, which isn't something that you can quite do in the stock market. The most common is the green bond. The net proceeds of the issuance go towards green projects, which can be things like retrofitting your buildings to be more energy efficient, building out a solar paneled roof, reducing water waste and so on. There are also social bonds with projects related to decreasing inequality or access to health care and sustainability bonds, which fund both types of projects. We spend a lot of time trying to understand how these instruments trade compared to normal vanilla bonds from the same issuer. A big driver of the difference in price and performance is that there are just a lot fewer of these label bonds and quite a large appetite to invest in them. So those supply and demand dynamics have historically helped these labor bonds trade well, particularly in the primary market. We recently completed some analysis, though, that found that when you strip away a lot of the structural differences, the premium afforded to these green bonds is pretty small over time, just around half a basis point. The big difference comes from green bonds that go the extra mile. These bonds have voluntary external verification, science-based targets, so on and so forth. Investors can see the green criteria of the bond and feel confident that the governance structures are in place to ensure the materiality of the green bond going forward. And these bonds on average trade with higher premiums to their vanilla counterparts than just your regular green bond. Michael Zezas: So I want to get into some of the challenges I mentioned at the start around the debate over ESG's impact and validity. What's been the catalyst for the increased scrutiny over what's often called 'greenwashing?' Carolyn Campbell: Yeah, great question. So if we take it back a step, ESG really took off during 2020 with the onset of the pandemic. And there was a surge of focus on, and enthusiasm around, ESG and climate change more broadly. The market's grown exponentially since then, and it was natural that some of these new products and developments would be met with a raised eyebrow. Protests and social unrest in 2020, for instance, marked a turning point for companies with society asking companies to state their values upfront and to start walking the walk. Much of the scrutiny around ESG is ensuring that companies are not taking advantage of ESG as a marketing exercise to generate goodwill and are, in a sense, putting their money where their mouth is. That's really accelerated this year with the war in Ukraine, which is highlighted that within ESG there are some potentially competing priorities, namely the social cost of high energy prices versus the far reaching implications of climate change, or the rising food insecurity versus a more sustainable value chain. Investors have begun to adopt more nuanced views of what ESG is and how it might evolve in a world with higher volatility and decades-high inflation prints. And not everybody has the same definition of what ESG means to them. At the end of the day, the debate centers around, is it affecting change, and if so, by how much? Michael Zezas: So I certainly understand the clamor for demonstrable proof of impact. But would you say that, even with incidents of greenwashing, has ESG moved the needle on achieving its goals? Carolyn Campbell: Another great question, and unfortunately, it's probably still too early to tell. ESG is really about playing the long game and moving the market's focus away from its bias towards short-termism. So the effects of these new cleaner investments might not necessarily be realized overnight. I think what is clear, though, is that the global greenhouse gas emissions haven't declined in recent years, despite this push towards more sustainable investing. In fact, 2021 marked the highest amount of global CO2 emissions ever recorded. That being said, while policy development at the federal level on climate might be facing some serious headwinds here in the US, there has been a positive push from the private sector to decarbonize, regardless of a legislative incentive. Just because we haven't seen a decline in emissions yet, doesn't mean it won't happen. It just means that there's a lot more work to do and a lot more money that needs to flow towards these sustainable solutions. Michael Zezas: So one of your key skills as a strategist is how you apply data and empirical analysis to ESG investments. Can you walk us through your work and your process? Carolyn Campbell: We start every report with a research question—how do you see factors, impacts, spread performance, for instance, or how much of a premium do these green bonds trade with? Sometimes these questions are commonly discussed and dissected in the news, in academic research and so on. But we try to begin each project with no presupposition of what we might find so that we don't bias our results. We want to let the data and results speak for itself. And we're not trying to push an agenda. We're trying to get to the bottom of complex problems that investors demonstrably care about. ESG data is incredibly tricky because it tends to have a shorter history than most financial metrics and is released slowly and often with lags. That doesn't give us a ton of wiggle room, but once we know the question we're trying to answer, we always start by collecting data, and we'll look for data from myriad sources: public and private, startups, the US government—you name it, we've looked into it. And then sadly, a lot of the work is data cleaning, as any data scientist listening knows all too well. Once we build the dataset, we start tackling that research question. Sometimes we're doing something a bit more simplistic, like standardizing metrics in order to facilitate a comparison of different instruments or companies. This is a big hurdle for ESG in particular, because we don't have anything like GAAP accounting metrics that every company has to report on. Just getting to a point where you can do an apples to apples comparison is not always straightforward. Often though, we look to use different types of regression models or other types of machine learning techniques to understand relationships in the market and to build the confidence in our results. Once we have those results, it's all about visualizing it in a compelling and clear way. Michael Zezas: If an investor is interested in the ESG space, what should they keep front of mind as they consider their investments? Carolyn Campbell: ESG is full of tradeoffs and it's rarely straightforward. We mentioned some of these dilemmas before, such as the social cost of the high gas prices and the implications of climate change by continuing to rely on fossil fuels. It's never clear cut. ESG isn't a one size fits all solution, and different investors are going to have different priorities. Understanding your priorities at the outset and keeping those as a guiding light will help keep the investment process on track and drown out some of the noise. That being said, it's also important in this fast evolving space to be flexible to new information and to be adaptable. The world looks very different now than it did a year ago or five years ago, and ESG in particular is rapidly changing with new regulations, new issues and new conflicts every day. Relying on the data and facts and understanding how trends change within the industry will be of utmost importance. Michael Zezas: Carolyn, thanks so much for talking. Carolyn Campbell: Great talking with you, Michael. Michael Zezas: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

Some investors think a potential recession is already priced in but given defensive leadership, labor statistics and incoming Fed rate hikes, it may be too early to tell.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, July 18th, at 11 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it.Last week, we highlighted how extreme the 12-month price momentum weightings are for defensive sectors. In fact, it's unprecedented for this type of price momentum to occur outside of an economic recession. One reaction to this development we've heard from many clients is that a recession must already be priced based on this relationship. If true, then defensive leadership is likely to reverse with something else taking the lead, like growth stocks or even cyclicals. We disagree and believe defensive leadership will likely persist until either a recession is officially announced, or the risk of a recession is definitively extinguished.In our view, the first outcome can only be achieved with a series of negative payroll data releases, something that still seems far away given last month's 372,000 new job additions. The second outcome—a soft landing—will also be hard to prove to the market until earnings revisions bottom out and companies stop doing hiring freezes.With respect to the recession outcome, the odds have been steadily increasing now for months. Morgan Stanley's proprietary economic model is currently suggesting a 36% probability of a recession in the next 12 months. Historically speaking, once it reaches 40%, it's usually a definitive reading that recession is oncoming. Furthermore, jobless claims have been rising the past few weeks. Secondarily, the household survey for total employment peaked in March and has fallen by approximately 400,000 jobs so far. While not the gold standard for measuring labor market health, it's worth watching closely as things can change rapidly for hiring and firing, particularly when profits come under significant pressure, as we expect. Finally, the job openings data has started to roll over, albeit from record high levels, while consumer and business confidence readings remain at record lows.In the very near term, equity markets seem to be digesting another hot Consumer Price Index release very well, even as concerns rose that the Fed might raise rates as much as 100 basis points next week. Our view is that 75 basis points is still the base case, and that should be plenty to keep the Fed on track to getting ahead of the curve. Importantly, the bond market seems to agree with the yield curve inverting the most since the 2000 cycle, quickly catching up to the defensive leadership of the stock market. The bullish take which this market seems to want to try and run with one more time, is that the Fed can pivot before a recession arrives.The other positive that has investors excited again is the fact that bank stocks had a strong rally on Friday, even as the earnings results were quite mixed. While this kind of price action is a necessary condition for the bear market to be over, we would caution that second quarter results are likely to be the first of several cuts, not just for banks, but for the market overall.The bottom line is that this earnings season is likely to be the first of several disappointing ones, especially if a recession is the endgame. Therefore, staying defensively oriented in one's equity positioning should remain the best course of action for the next several months.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

➤ New 4680 battery info from The Limiting Factor: https://youtu.be/8WPPBhqeekw ➤ PPI higher than expected ➤ Giga Texas production report ➤ Giga Berlin test production sales ➤ Morgan Stanley lowers Tesla price target ➤ Tesla opens questions for Q2 earnings call ➤ EV market share rises in the US Shareloft: https://www.shareloft.com Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/teslapodcast Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/tesladailypodcast Tesla Referral: https://ts.la/robert47283 #Tesla #TSLA #Investing Executive producer Jeremy Cooke Executive producer Troy Cherasaro Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent Executive producer Jessie Chimni Executive producer Michael Pastrone Executive producer Richard Del Maestro Executive producer John Beans Music by Evan Schaeffer Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives

This week brought yet another reading of inflation that exceed