Podcasts about Morgan Stanley

Nicholas Lam's path to Morgan Stanley equity research is anything but typical. From culinary school to Ivy League — and now to high finance.

Kim Flynn, President of XA Investments, discusses her 25-year career in asset management, focusing on alternative investments. She highlights the challenges faced during the 2008 financial crisis at Nuveen Investments, where she refinanced $15 billion in frozen auction rate securities. Flynn explains the structure and benefits of closed-end funds, particularly interval funds, which offer periodic liquidity. She details XA Investments' three SEC-registered closed-end funds with $900 million in assets, emphasizing private credit strategies with yields ranging from 9% to 15%. Flynn also explores the potential of alternative investments like farmland, infrastructure, and crypto, noting their role in portfolio diversification and income generation. Note: this episode contains general information only and is not financial or investment advice. Please let Gene know your thoughts on this episode by emailing him at contact@economicsexplored.com.About Kimberly Ann FlynnKimberly Ann Flynn is a President at XA Investments. She is a partner in the firm and responsible for all product and business development activities. Kim is responsible for the firm's proprietary fund platform and consulting practice. Kim has developed an expertise in closed-end fund product development and is a frequent contributor to media and industry events on topics including interval funds, alternative investments and London-listed investment companies. Kim has earned the CFA designation and is a member of the CFA Institute and CFA Society Chicago. She is also Series 7, 63 and 24 licensed.Previously, Kim was Senior Vice President and Head of Product Development for Nuveen Investments' Global Structured Products Group. In her 11 years at Nuveen, she helped develop over 40 closed-end funds, raising approximately $13 billion in capital. In her leadership role at Nuveen, Kim was responsible for asset-raising activities through the development of new, traditional and alternative investment funds, including CEFs, ETFs, UITs and commodity pools.Kim received her MBA degree from Harvard University, where she was a William J. Carey scholar and President of the HBS Volunteers. Before attending Harvard Business School, Kim spent three years working in Morgan Stanley's Investment Banking Division (1999-2002) in their Chicago office. She earned her BBA in Finance and Business Economics, summa cum laude, from the University of Notre Dame in 1999 where she was a valedictorian candidate, Rhodes Scholar finalist and the first recipient of the Paul F. Conway Award, given to a senior in the Department of Finance who embodies Notre Dame's tradition of excellence and who enriches the ideals of the university.Kim was recently selected to serve on the Notre Dame Wall Street leadership committee. She also serves on the board of the Women in ETFs Chicago chapter as Head of the Mentorship Committee and on the advisory board of Youth Guidance's Becoming A Man program. She is an active member of the University Club of Chicago and the Harvard Club of New York City, where she conducts regular business. Kim and her family - husband, Leo; son, Teddy; and daughter, Rose - live in Lincoln Park.TimestampsIntroduction (0:00)Kim Flynn's Career Journey (3:09)Experience During the 2008 Financial Crisis (4:41)Development of New Financial Products Post-Crisis (7:17)Understanding Closed-End Funds and Interval Funds (8:48)Investment Strategies and Alternative Assets (21:01)Energy Investments and ESG Considerations (29:02)Gold, Crypto, and the Role of FinTech (31:36)Evaluating Asset Managers and Investment Strategies (35:03)Investment Outlook and Market Dynamics (47:07)TakeawaysAlternative Investments Offer Diversification: Kim Flynn explains that alternative investments, including real estate, private credit, and farmland, provide diversification benefits, reducing reliance on traditional stocks and bonds.Liquidity Management is Crucial: Interval funds allow limited liquidity for investors, making them suitable for illiquid asset classes like private equity and real estate.Lessons from the 2008 Crisis: Kim shares her experience during the financial crisis, where she managed funds impacted by frozen liquidity, highlighting the importance of flexibility and innovation.Private Credit and Farmland Are Popular: Kim notes that private credit and farmland investments have seen significant interest due to their yield potential and inflation protection.Understanding Liquidity Premiums: Kim emphasizes that investors should seek a 300-400 basis point premium for illiquid investments compared to equivalent public market assets.Links relevant to the conversationKim's bio on the XA Investments website:https://xainvestments.com/team/US Treasury webpage on the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP):https://home.treasury.gov/data/troubled-asset-relief-programLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee's Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

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The initial shock of the U.S. administration's tariff announcements is over, but Andrew Sheets, our Head of Corporate Credit Research, suggests the current calm could still give way to headwinds for the markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today we're going to discuss whether the worst is over for markets – or whether it's just the eye of the storm.It's Friday, May 9th at 2pm in London.After extreme recent volatility, markets have bounced back, generally unwinding their losses since April 2nd. So was that it? The shock of tariff announcements and positioning adjustments may have now passed through, but the impact on the real economy is still to come. In meteorological terms, we think this may be just the eye of the storm.There are several specific bouts of potentially bad weather that we're looking at, driven by tariffs that may be about to pass through.First is the Federal Reserve. Our economists still see no cuts from the Fed this year as tariffs keep inflation elevated on our forecast. The markets in contrast are expecting more action. A scenario where credit markets face both weaker growth and a lack of central bank support remains one of our top concerns.Second is the data. So far in 2025, measures of consumer and company expectations have generally been weak, while readings of activity have tended to be stronger. Now, we think there's a good historical case that it's the expectations that tend to leave and are thus concerned that actual activity could start to soften – as it starts to be measured in a post tariff period.To this end, we're keenly watching measures like shipping and trucking activity, which could give us a better picture of the real impact. Again, a core driver of our concern, despite the economic data holding up so far, is that the impact of tariffs usually takes more time. As our economists note, tariffs historically have pushed up prices after a couple of months and pushed down growth after a couple of quarters. In short, the full storm of that impact may be yet to pass through.That thinking also lies behind our inflation views. Those more optimistic on inflation, and thus expecting more interest rate cuts from the Fed, note that the latest core inflation readings were generally fine. But in contrast, our economists remain more concerned that tariff price impacts simply haven't yet arrived in the official data, noting little change in the core inflation readings for things like goods that in theory should see the largest tariff impact. This, in our view, suggests that the impact on the underlying numbers that the Fed is looking at is still to come.The initial surprise of the U.S. tariff announcements is behind us. Things feel calmer. And the recent economic data has been relatively resilient. One scenario is this simply speaks to how resilient the U.S. economy is. But another explanation is that there's a gap between the surprise of those tariffs and their ultimate economic impact. And our concern remains that those impacts are real, driving forecast at Morgan Stanley for weaker growth, higher inflation, and later interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than the market consensus.With credit spreads below average, we'd recommend patience. Those forecasts at these spreads could still drive turbulence.Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts in the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen; and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Investors were caught off guard last week when the Taiwanese dollar surged to a multi-year high. Our strategists Michael Zezas and James Lord look at what was behind this unexpected rally.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.James Lord: And I'm James Lord Morgan Stanley's, Global Head of FX and EM Strategy.Michael Zezas: Today, we'll focus on some extreme moves in the currency markets and give you a sense of what's driving them, and why investors should pay close attention.It's Thursday, May 8th at 10am in New York.James Lord: And 3pm in London.Michael Zezas: So, James, coming into the year, the consensus was that the U.S. dollar might strengthen quite a bit because the U.S. was going to institute tariffs amongst other things. That's actually not what's happened. So, can you explain why the dollar's been weakening and why you expect this trend to continue?James Lord: I think a big factor for the weakening in the dollar, at least in the initial part of the year before the April tariff announcements came through, was a concern that the U.S. economy was going to be slowing down this year. I mean, this was against some of the consensus expectations at the beginning of the year.In our year ahead outlook, we made this call that the dollar would be weakening because of the potential weakness in the U.S. economy, driven by slow down in immigration, limited action on fiscal policy. And whatever tariffs did come through would be kind of damaging for the U.S. economy.And this would all sort of lead to a big slowdown and a kind of end to the U.S. exceptionalism trade that people now talk about all the time. And I think since April 1st or April 2nd tariff announcements came, the tariffs were so large that it raised real concerns about the damage that was potentially going to happen to the U.S. economy.The sort of methodology in which the tariff formulas were created raised a bit of concern about the credibility of the announcements. And then we had this constant on again, off again, on again, off again tariffs. That just created a lot of uncertainty. And in the context of a 15-year bull market of the dollar where it had sucked enormous amounts of capital inflows into the U.S. economy. You know, investors just felt that maybe it was worth taking a few chips off the table and unwinding a little bit of that dollar risk. And we've seen that play out quite notably over the last month. So, I think it's been, yeah, really that those concerns about growth but also this sort of uncertainty about policy in general in the context of, you know, a big bull run for the dollar; and fairly heavy valuations and positioning. Those have been the main issues, I think.Michael Zezas: Right, so we've got here this dynamic where there are economic fundamental reasons the dollar could keep weakening. But also concerns from investors overseas, whether they're ultimately founded or not, that they just might have less demand for owning U.S. dollar denominated assets because of the U.S. trade dynamic. Now it seems to me, and correct me if I'm wrong, that there was a major market move in the past week around the Taiwanese dollar, which reflected these concerns and created an unusually large move in that currency. Can you explain that dynamic?James Lord:  Yeah, so we've seen really significant moves in the Taiwan dollar. In fact, on May 2nd, the currency saw its largest one-day rally since the 1980s, and over two days gained over 6.5 percent, which for a Taiwan dollar, which is pretty low volatility currency usually, these are really big moves. So in our view, the rally in the Taiwan dollar, and it was remarkably big. We think it's been mostly driven by Taiwanese exporters selling some of their dollar assets with a little bit of foreign equity inflow helping as well. And this is linked back to the sort of trade negotiations as well.I mean, as you know, like one of the things that the U.S. administration has been focused on currency valuations. Historically, many people in the U.S. administration believe the dollar is very strong. And so there has been this sort of issue of currency valuations hanging over the trade negotiations between the U.S. and various Asian countries. And local media in Taiwan have been talking about the possibility that as part of a trade negotiation or trade deal, there could be a currency aspect to that – where the U.S. government would ask the Taiwanese authorities to try to push Taiwan dollar stronger.And you know, I think this sort of media reporting created a little bit of a -- well, not just a little, a significant shift from Taiwanese exporters where they suddenly rush to sell their dollar deposits in to get ahead of any possible effort from the Taiwanese authorities to strengthen their currency. The central bank is being very clear on this.We should have to point this out that the currency has not been part of the trade deal. And yet this hasn't prevented market participants from acting on the perceived risk of it being part of the trade talks. So, you know, Taiwanese exporters own a lot of dollars. Corporates and individuals in Taiwan hold about $275 billion worth of FX deposits and for an $800 billion or so economy, that's pretty sizable. So we think that is that dynamic, which has been the biggest factor in pushing Taiwan dollar stronger.Michael Zezas: Right, so the Taiwan dollar is this interesting case study then in how U.S. public policy choices might be creating the perception of changes in demand for the dollar changes in policy around how foreign governments are supposed to value their currency and investors might be getting ahead of that.Are there any other parts of the world where you're looking at foreign exchange globally, where you see things mispriced in a way relative to some of these expectations that investors need to talk about?James Lord: We do think that the dollar has further to go. I mean, it's on the downside. It's not necessarily linked to expectations that currency agreements will be part of any trade agreement. But, we think the Fed will need to cut rates quite a bit on the back of the slow down in the U.S. economy. Not so much this year. But Mike Gapen and Seth Carpenter, and the U.S. economics team are expecting to see the Fed cut to around 2.5 per cent or so next year. And that's absolutely not priced. And, And so I think as this slowdown – and, this is more of a sort of traditional currency driver compared to some of these other policy issues that we've been talking about. But if the Fed does indeed cut that far, I do think that that's going to put some meaningful pressure on the dollar. And on a sort of interest rate differential perspective, and when we look at what is mispriced and correctly priced, we see the Fed as being mispriced, but the ECB is being quite well priced at the moment.So as that weakening downward pressure comes through on the dollar, it should be reflected on the euro leg. And we see it heading up to 1.2. But just on the trade issue, Mike, what's your view on how those trade negotiations are going? Are we going to get lots of deals being announced soon?Michael Zezas: Yeah, so the news flow here suggests that the U.S. is engaged in multiple negotiations across the globe and are looking to establish agreements relatively quickly, which would at least give us some information about what happens next with regard to the tariffs that are scheduled to increase after that 90 day pause that was announced in earlier in April. We don't know much beyond that.I'd say our expectation is that because the U.S. has enough in common in terms of interests and how it manages its own economy and how most of its trading partners manage their own economies – that there are trade agreements, at least in concept. Perhaps memorandums of understanding that the U.S. can establish with more traditional allies, call it Japan, Europe, for example, that can ultimately put another pause on tariff escalation with those countries.We think it'll be harder with China where there are more fundamental disagreements about how the two countries should interact with each other economically. And while tariffs could come down from these very, very high levels with China, we still see them kind of settling out at still meaningful substantial headline numbers; call it the 50 to 60 per cent range. And while that might enable more trade than we're seeing right now with China because of these 145 per cent tariff levels, it'll still be substantially less than where we started the year where tariff levels were, you know, sub 20 per cent for the most part with China.So, there is a variety of different things happening. I would expect the general dynamic to be – we are going to see more agreements with more counterparties. However, those will mostly result in more pauses and ongoing negotiation, and so the uncertainty will not be completely eliminated. And so, to that point, James, I think I hear you saying that there is potentially a difference between sometimes currencies move based on general policy uncertainty and anxieties created around that.James Lord: Yeah, that's right. I think that's safer ground, I think for us as currency strategists to be anchoring our view to because it's something that we deal with day in, day out for all economies. The impact of this uncertainty variable. It could be like, I think directionally supports a weaker dollar, but sort of quantifying it, understanding like how much of that is in the price; could it get worse, could it get better? That's something that's a little bit more difficult to sort of anchor the view to. So, at the moment we feel that it's pushing in the same direction as the core view. But the core view, as you say, is based around those growth and monetary policy drivers.So, best practice here is let's keep continuing to anchor to the fundamentals in our investment view, but sort of recognize that there are substantial bands of uncertainty that are driven by U.S. policy choices and by investors' perceptions of what those policy choices could mean.Michael Zezas: So, James conversations like this are extremely helpful to our audience. We'll keep tracking this carefully. And so, I just want to say thank you for taking the time to talk with us today.James Lord: I really enjoyed it. Looking forward to the next one.Michael Zezas: Great. And thank you for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Trent Leyda and Kay Campione offer a unique perspective on their time at Morgan Stanley, how it had come to diverge from their vision of building a family office they would entrust with their own families' wealth, and how they are better equipped to realize that vision as an independent firm.

Michael Garza Podcast:https://open.spotify.com/show/6dBGAg9qohEoWba5VMPMP8Favorite Energy Drink (Monster Zero Sugar)https://amzn.to/3Rgp5XGMy Smart Phone (Pixel 8 Pro)https://amzn.to/4cBgmsQFavorite Desktop Computer (HP Envy)https://amzn.to/3Y1bbMOMy Mobile Phone Carrier (Mint Mobile)https://amzn.to/4cxID3lPreferred Microphone (Blue Yeti USB Microphone)https://amzn.to/4iisC2yPreferred Webcam (Logitech 2017 Brio 4K Webcam)https://amzn.to/4jrjyte

The traditional correlations between some asset classes went haywire in April. Our analysts Serena Tang and Vishy Tirupattur discuss whether, in this environment, investors still consider U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar to be reliable ports in a storm. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross Asset Strategist.Vishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Serena Tang: Today's topic, how investors' perceptions of safe havens are evolving, the impact on correlation between asset classes, and what all this means for your portfolio.It's Wednesday, May 7th at 10am in New York.April was a really challenging month, and some market moves were highly unusual. There was also a lot of investor concern whether U.S. Treasuries would continue to be a safe haven. In fact, this became one of the biggest market debates over the last few weeks.Vishy, let's start here. Prior to this recent sell off, foreign investors looked at U.S. assets as a safe haven. Why is that? And is it still the case now after this turbulent month?Vishy Tirupattur: So, Serena, if you just step back and look at it, U.S. enjoyed positive growth differentials and positive yield differentials with developed markets in the rest of the world. On top of that, there was a consistent policy – not necessarily infallible policy – but there's a consistent policy with a clear sense of demarcation between the executive and the central bank.All of this meant U.S. was a very attractive destination for foreign investor flows. Not only during periods of normalcy where U.S. equities really attracted inflows and performed really well, but also during the periods of economic stress; where even periods where the stress was coming from the U.S. itself, such as the Global Financial Crisis. This correlation between bonds and stocks held and U.S. Treasuries were the safe haven asset as the single largest and most liquid, and highly negatively correlated asset with risk assets. So that really worked.What we are now seeing is that growth differential I talked about may no longer be holding. You know, for these [20]25 and [20]26 U.S. and euro area growth basically will converge – and if our economists' expectations are right, in 2026, euro area will be growing at a faster pace than the U.S.So, growth differential argument is fading. And there are some questions about the continued Fed independence. So put all these things together. Some investors are beginning to question whether U.S. assets will continue to be safe haven assets.So let me come back to you Serena. There've been some recent market moves that have been extremely unusual. That's what created all this debate. In some of – a few days in April, during the periods of sell off, we had both stocks and bonds selling off. And it felt like cross-asset correlations have gone totally haywire.So, can you talk a little bit about which correlations have changed? Which correlations have held up in these sell off?Serena Tang: What was highly unusual, and I think reflects part of the debate on U.S. as a safe haven, is the correlation between U.S. equities and the dollar. It is very high at the moment, about sort of two standard deviation above the five-year average. While it's not unheard of for FX stocks correlation to be high, it is usually more associated with EM or emerging markets rather than DM or developed markets. As a means, investors now require higher risk premium for holding the equities, which is a risk asset; but also holding the dollar, which again, traditionally is not thought of as a risk asset.Vishy Tirupattur: So, Serena, how did the correlation between bonds and stocks hold up in this period?Serena Tang: Surprisingly, the correlation have really, really held up. Stocks and bond return correlation turned very negative during the sell off that we saw, which means that equity losses were actually offset by bond returns. Now, this isn't entirely true across the curve. You saw 2 Year Treasuries being a much effective diversifier than say the 30 Year Treasury. But all in all, I think it means bonds still work as a diversifier.Now on this point Vishy, how do you think policy will impact asset correlations we've been talking about, as well as the perception of U.S. assets as a safe haven.Vishy Tirupattur: So, as I said before, positive growth differentials fade, and we have negative growth differential. And if there are continued questions about the Fed's independence, so some of the attraction of U.S. assets, particularly U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven asset, will be challenged. But that challenge hits the practical reality of the size and the scale of the safe haven assets.So, if you look around, if you add the comparably rated European government bond market and compare that to the U.S. government bond market, the U.S. market is about 10 times as larger. So, more scale, more liquidity, and the ability to deploy capital during the periods of stress is clearly more in the U.S.So, this is what I would say. The status of U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency and U.S. Treasuries as the global safe haven asset have taken a bit of a ding, but not gone away.Serena Tang: Vishy, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Vishy Tirupattur: Great speaking with you, Serena, as always.Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Erica has helped build a global team at Workiva where everyone has a "me vs. me" mentality - working to improve ourlseves, not a competitive "me versus you" attitude. How can you get better? How can you deliver the best to your clients and internal consitutents.  Erica was named "Manager of the Year" and she says it is because of her incredible team.  We talked about holding people accountable - such an important issue for leaders to demonstrate.  I love when Erica discusses what she looks for in top sellers (17 min in)  Erica has people on her team from Amsterdam all the way to the West Coast of the U.S. She spent time at Morgan Stanley in Institutional Wealth Services, a few years at Direxion, and has now been at Workiva for 4+ years.  More about Erica: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericaettore/ More about Women Sales Pros - we have a website, we are on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Instagram.  Subscribe to our 2x a month news, and share the podcast with others! We'd love a 5 star rating and comments on iTunes if you are so moved! It really makes a difference.  subscribe: https://bit.ly/thewspnews Contribute: https://forms.gle/v9rRiPDUtgGqKaXA6 Past News Issues: bit.ly/past_news_issues https://womensalespros.com/podcast/ 

Víctor Galán, de victorgalanbolsa.com, analiza los títulos de Fluidra, Novo Nordisk, Morgan Stanley, Nvidia o la cotización del dólar, entre otros

Die Wall Street ist im Vorfeld der FED-Tagung in Wartestellung. Wie dem auch sei, ist sich die Wall Street darüber einig, was Jerome Powell signalisieren dürfte. Die Zinsen werden erst gesenkt, wenn eine Abschwächung des Arbeitsmarktes und Anstieg der Arbeitslosenrate sichtbar wird. Das ist das Fazit der Deutschen Bank, der Citigroup, von Morgan Stanley und von Goldman Sachs. Was die Ergebnisse betrifft, gibt es einzelne Highlights. Disney überzeugt, auch durch angehobene Aussichten. Die Aktien von AMD können hingegen von den Zahlen nur leicht profitieren, mit den Aktien von Arista Networks und Uber unter Druck. Marvell hat wiederum den Analystentag verschoben, mit dem Wert ebenfalls unter Druck. Spannend bleibt es bei der Handelspolitik. Noch diese Woche soll in der Schweiz ein Treffen zwischen hochrangigen Vertretern der USA und Chinas stattfinden. Trump hatte gestern außerdem betont, dass es bis Montag „sehr große und gute Nachrichten“ in Sachen Handelsabkommen geben wird. Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. +++Erhalte einen exklusiven 15% Rabatt auf Saily eSIM Datentarife! Lade die Saily-App herunter und benutze den Code wallstreet beim Bezahlen: https://saily.com/wallstreet +++ +++EXKLUSIVER NordVPN Deal ➼ https://nordvpn.com/Wallstreet Jetzt risikofrei testen mit einer 30-Tage-Geld-zurück-Garantie!+++ +++ Alle Rabattcodes und Infos zu unseren Werbepartnern findet ihr hier: https://linktr.ee/wallstreet_podcast +++ +++Probier Seeberger Snacks – deine natürliche Energiequelle. Mit dem Code wallstreet könnt ihr euch jetzt 20% Rabatt im Seeberger Onlineshop sichern: https://www.seeberger.de/?utm_campaign=podcast-q1&utm_medium=nativead&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=wallstreet +++ Der Podcast wird vermarktet durch die Ad Alliance. Die allgemeinen Datenschutzrichtlinien der Ad Alliance finden Sie unter https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html Die Ad Alliance verarbeitet im Zusammenhang mit dem Angebot die Podcasts-Daten. Wenn Sie der automatischen Übermittlung der Daten widersprechen wollen, klicken Sie hier: https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html

Die Wall Street ist im Vorfeld der FED-Tagung in Wartestellung. Wie dem auch sei, ist sich die Wall Street darüber einig, was Jerome Powell signalisieren dürfte. Die Zinsen werden erst gesenkt, wenn eine Abschwächung des Arbeitsmarktes und Anstieg der Arbeitslosenrate sichtbar wird. Das ist das Fazit der Deutschen Bank, der Citigroup, von Morgan Stanley und von Goldman Sachs. Was die Ergebnisse betrifft, gibt es einzelne Highlights. Disney überzeugt, auch durch angehobene Aussichten. Die Aktien von AMD können hingegen von den Zahlen nur leicht profitieren, mit den Aktien von Arista Networks und Uber unter Druck. Marvell hat wiederum den Analystentag verschoben, mit dem Wert ebenfalls unter Druck. Spannend bleibt es bei der Handelspolitik. Noch diese Woche soll in der Schweiz ein Treffen zwischen hochrangigen Vertretern der USA und Chinas stattfinden. Trump hatte gestern außerdem betont, dass es bis Montag „sehr große und gute Nachrichten“ in Sachen Handelsabkommen geben wird. Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! ____ Folge uns, um auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben: • X: http://fal.cn/SQtwitter • LinkedIn: http://fal.cn/SQlinkedin • Instagram: http://fal.cn/SQInstagram

With the May FOMC meeting in progress, our analysts Matt Hornbach and Michael Gapen offer perspective on U.S. economic projections and whether markets are aligned.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today we're talking about the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting underway, and the path for rates from here.It's Tuesday, May 6th at 10am in New York.Mike, before we talk about your expectations for the FOMC meeting itself, I wanted to get your take on the U.S. economy heading into the meeting. How are you seeing things today? And in particular, how do you think what happened on April 2nd, so-called Liberation Day, affects the outlook?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think right now, Matt, I would say the economy's still on relatively solid footing, and by that I mean the economy had been moderating. Yes, the first quarter GDP print was negative. But that was mainly because firms were frontloading a lot of inventories through imports. So imports were up over 40 percent at an annualized pace in the quarter. A lot of that went into inventories and into business spending. That was just a mechanical drag on activity.And the April employment report, I think, showed the same thing. We're now averaging about 145,000 jobs per month this year. That's down from about 170,000 per month in the second half of last year. So the hiring rate is slowing down, but no signs of a sudden stop. No signs in layoffs picking up. So I'd say the economy is on fairly solid footing, and the labor market is also on fairly solid footing – as we enter the period now when we think tariffs will have a greater effect on the outlook. So you asked, you know, Liberation Day. How does that affect the outlook? Right now we'd say it puts a lot of uncertainty in front of us. on pretty solid footing now. But Matt, looking forward, we have a lot of concerns about where things may go and we expect activity to slow and inflation to rise.Matthew Hornbach: That's great background, Mike, for what I want to ask you about next, which is of course the FOMC meeting this week. We won't get a new set of economic projections from the committee. But if we did, what do you think they would do with them and how would you assess the reaction function one might be able to tease out of those economic projections?Michael Gapen: You're right, we don't get a new set of projections, but New York Fed President John Williams did provide some indication about how he adjusted his forecast, and John tends to be one of the – kind of a median participant.He tends to be centrist in his thinking and his projection. So I do think that that gives us an indication of what the Fed is thinking; and he said he expects GDP growth to slow to somewhat below 1 percent in 2025. He expects inflation to rise to 3.5 to 4 percent this year, and he said the unemployment rates likely to move between 4.5 and 5 percent over the next year. And those phrases are really key. That's the same thing, Matt, as you know, we are expecting for the U.S. economy and I do think the Fed is thinking of it the same way.Matthew Hornbach: So one final question for you, Mike. In terms of this meeting itself, what are you expecting the Fed to deliver this week? And what are the risks you see being around that expectation; you know, that might catch investors off guard?Michael Gapen:I think the Fed's main message this week will be that they're prepared to wait, that they think policy's in a good spot right now. They think inflation will be rising sharply, that the tariff shock is a lot larger than they had anticipated earlier this year. And they will need time to assess whether that inflation impulse is transitory, or whether it creates more persistent inflation. So I think what they will say is we're in a good position to wait and we need clarity on the outlook before we can act.In this case, we think acting means doing nothing. But acting could also mean cutting if the labor market weakens. So I think there'll be worried about inflation today, a weak labor market tomorrow. And so I think risks around this meeting really are tilted in the direction of a more hawkish message than markets are expecting at least vis-a-vis current pricing. I think the market wants to hear the Fed will be ready to support the economy. Of course, we think they will, but I think the Fed's also going to be worried about inflation pressures in the near term. So that, I think, might catch investors off guard.So Matt, what I think might catch investors off guard may be a little misplaced. I'm an economist after all. You're the strategist, you're the expert on the treasury market and how investors may be perceiving events at the moment. So the treasury market had quite the month since April 2nd. For a moment U.S. treasuries didn't act like the safe haven asset many have come to expect. What do you think happened?Matthew Hornbach: So, Mike, you're absolutely right. Treasury yields initially fell, but then spent a healthy portion of the last month rising and investors were caught off guard by what they saw happening in the treasury market. I've seen this type of behavior in the treasury market, which I've been watching now for 25 years. I've seen this happen twice before in my career. The first time was during the Great Financial Crisis, and the second time I saw it was in March of 2020. So, this being the third time you know, I don't know if it was the charm or if it was something else, but treasury yields went up quite a bit.I think what investors were witnessing in the treasury market is really a reflection of the degree of uncertainty and the breadth with which that uncertainty, traversed the world. Both the Great Financial Crisis and the initial stage of the pandemic in March of 2020 were events that were global in nature. They were in many ways systemic in nature, and they were events that most investors hadn't contemplated or seen in their lifetimes. And when this happens, I think investors tend to reduce risk in all of its forms until the dust settles. And one of those very important forms of risk in the fixed income markets is duration risk.So, I think investors were paring back duration risk, which helped the U.S. Treasury market perform pretty poorly at one moment over the past month.Michael Gapen: So Matt, one aspect of market pricing that stands out to me is how rates markets are pricing 75 basis points of rate cuts this year. And just after April 2nd, the market had priced in about 100 basis points of cuts.How are you thinking about the market pricing today? Matt, as you know, it differs quite a bit from what we think will happen.Matthew Hornbach: Yeah. This is where, you know, understanding that market prices in the interest rate complex reflect the average outcome of a wide variety of scenarios; really every scenario that is conceivable in the minds of investors. And, of course, as you mentioned, Mike depending on exactly how this year ends up playing out there, there could be a scenario in which the Federal Reserve has to lower rates much more aggressively than perhaps even markets are pricing today.So, the market being an average of a wide variety of outcome will find it really challenging to take out all of the rate cuts that are priced in today. Or said differently, the market will find it challenging to price in your baseline scenario. And ultimately, I think the way in which the market ends up truing up to your projections, Mike, is just with time.I think as we make our way through this year and the economic data come in, in-line with your baseline projections, the market will eventually price out those rate cuts that you see in there today. But that's going to take time. It's going to take investors growing increasingly comfortable that we can avoid a recession at least in perception this year before, you know, on your projections, we have a bit of a slower economy in 2026.Michael Gapen: Well, it definitely does feel like a bimodal world, where investor conviction is low. Matt, where do you have conviction in the rates market today?Matthew Hornbach: So, the way we've been thinking about this environment where we can avoid a recession this year, but maybe 2026 the risks rise a bit more. We think that that's the type of environment where the yield curve in the United States can steepen, and what that means practically is that yields on longer maturity bonds will go up relative to yields on shorter maturity bonds. So, you get this steepening of the yield curve. And that is where we have the highest conviction; in terms of, what happens with the Treasury market this year is we have a steeper yield curve by the time we get to December.Now part of that steepening we think comes because as we approach 2026 where Mike, you have the Fed beginning to lower rates in your baseline, the market will have to increasingly price with more conviction a lower policy rate from the Fed. But then at the same time, you know, we probably will have an environment where treasury supply will have to increase.As a result of the fiscal policies that the government is discussing at the moment. And so you have this environment where yields on longer maturity securities are pressured higher relative to yields on shorter maturity treasuries.So, with that, Mike, we'll wrap our conversation. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: It's been great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Carl Quintanilla discussed the biggest headlines for stocks alongside Sara Eisen and David Faber – who both joined the broadcast live from the Milken Institute's investment conference in Beverly Hills this hour. Citi CEO Jane Fraser and Treasury Secretary Bessent both pointing out a resilient consumer when it comes to the data… But CNBC's latest Fed Survey raising recession odds to 55% from 22% at the start of the year – what's driving the action. Plus: Goldman's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist gave his take on where markets go from here – and whether the Mag-7 tech trade can hold up.  Also in focus: the latest from the ground at Milken – as the street's top CEOs, leaders, and regulators convene in California. David sat down with the CEOs of Ares (the firm manages $500B+ in assets) and Morgan Stanley Co-President Dan Simkowitz.  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

This week, we're joined by special guest Tarun Gupta, CEO and co-founder of Coinshift, to discuss stablecoin adoption globally and his long-term vision for decentralized finance.In the market update, we highlight large inflows into BTC, CME flows up over 100% month-over-month, and a strong front-month basis at 11%. We also break down what's next for BTC and key support levels.On the macro front, we recap last week's Non-Farm Payrolls, discuss equity market valuations, preview this week's FOMC decision, and consider what to expect from the Milken Conference and key crypto earnings. In the news section, we cover Arizona's rejection of a proposal to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—and Schwab and Morgan Stanley's plans to launch crypto trading. We also cover the revival of virtual asset platforms with the launch of Genesis, and continued explosive growth in real-world assets (RWAs), including Telegram's $500M tokenized bond fund and BlackRock's BUIDL reaching $2.8B in TVL, up from $665M in March. BlackRock has also filed to tokenize a $150B Treasury trust fund on Ethereum.Onchain, we discuss Apple's relaxation of crypto app rules—allowing Bitcoin and crypto payments, NFTs, and reduced App Store fees—and Solana's patch of a zero-day vulnerability in its ElGamal Proof program. We close with key upcoming catalysts: the FOMC decision on May 7, and Ethereum's Pectra upgrade also expected on May 7.Topics Covered:Special Guests:Tarun Gupta on stablecoin adoptionMarket Update: BTC inflows, CME flows +100% MoM, front-month basis at 11%, key support levelsMacro Overview: Non-Farm Payrolls, equity market valuations, FOMC expectations, Milken Conference, crypto earningsNews & Policy: Bitcoin reserve proposal rejections, Schwab & Morgan Stanley crypto plans, virtuals revival, Telegram & BlackRock RWA expansionOnchain Insights: Apple relaxes app rules, Solana patches zero-day vulnerabilityCatalysts Ahead: FOMC Meeting (May 7), Ethereum Pectra Upgrade (May 7), multiple crypto company earnings (May 8)Host:Ben Floyd, Head of Execution ServicesSpeakers:David Duong, Head of Institutional ResearchBrock Miller, Senior Staff Software EngineerJoshua Pak, Senior CES Sales TraderCoinbase News:MANTLE-USD, WLD-USD available on Coinbase Exchange and Advanced Trade

Morgan Stanley Research analyst Mark Schmidt and Investment Management's Craig Brandon discuss the heightened uncertainty in the U.S. municipal bonds market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.For a full list of episode disclosures click here.----- Transcript -----Mark Schmidt: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mark Schmidt, Morgan Stanley's Head of Municipal Strategy.Craig Brandon: I'm Craig Brandon, Co-Director of Municipal Investments at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.Mark Schmidt: Today, let's talk about the biggest market you hardly ever hear about – municipal bonds, a $4 trillion asset class.It's Monday, May 5th at 10am in Boston.Mark Schmidt: If you've driven, flown, gone to school or turned on a tap, chances are munis made it happen. Although munis are late cycle haven, they were not immune to the latest bout of market volatility. Craig, why was April so tough?Craig Brandon: So, what we say in April, it was sort of the trifecta of things that happened that were a little different than other asset classes. The first thing that happened is we saw a significant increase in treasury rates – and munis are generally correlated to treasuries. We're a very high-quality asset class, that's viewed as a duration asset class. So, one thing we saw were rates going up. When we see rates going up, you generally see money coming out of the market, right? So, I think investors were a little bit impacted by the higher rates, the correlation to treasuries, the duration, and saw some flows out of the market.Secondly, what we saw is conversation about the tax exemption in Washington D.C. What that did is it caused muni issuers to pull their issuance forward. So, if you're an infrastructure issuer, you are issuing bonds in the next year to year and a half; you're going to pull that forward because if there's any risk of loss of the tax exemption, you want to get these bonds issued today. So that's basically what drives technicals. It's supply and demand. So, what we saw was a decrease in demand because of higher rates; an increase in supply because of issuance being pulled forward.And the third part of the trifecta we refer to is the conversations about the economy. So, I would put that, it's sort of a distant third, but there's still conversations about maybe credit weakness driven by a slowing economy.Mark Schmidt: Craig, your team has been through a lot of tough market cycles. Given your experience, how did the most recent selloff compare? And why was it not like 2008?Craig Brandon: I started my career back in 1998 during the long-term capital management crisis. I lived through 2008. I lived through the COVID crisis, and you know, really when I look at the crisis in 2008 – no banks went out of business three weeks ago, right? In 2008 we were really sitting on a trading desk wondering where this was going to end.You know, we had a number of meetings with our staff, over the last couple weeks explaining to them why it was different and how. Yes, there was some volatility here, but you could see that there was going to be an end to this, and this was not going to be a permanent restructuring of the market. So, I think we felt comfortable. It was very different than 2008 and it really felt different than COVID.Mark Schmidt: That's reassuring. But with economic growth set to slow sharply, how does your credit team think the fiscal health of America's state and local governments will hold up?Craig Brandon: Well, remember state and local governments, and when we're talking about munis, we're also talking about other infrastructure asset classes like water and sewer bonds. Like, you know, transportation, bonds, airports. We're talking about toll roads.They went into this with a very strong balance sheet, right? Remember, there was a lot of infrastructure money spent by the federal government during COVID to give issuers money to make it through COVID. There's still a lot of money on balance sheets. So, what we do is we're going into this crisis with a lot of cash on balance sheets, allowing issuers to be able to withstand some weakness in the economy and get through to the other side of this.Mark Schmidt: Not only do state and local governments have a lot of cash, but they're just not that impacted by tariffs, right? So why did muni yields perform worse than U.S. treasuries over the past couple of weeks?Craig Brandon: Right. It really… We're technically driven, right? The U.S. muni market is more retail driven than some other asset classes. Remember – investment grade corporates, treasury bonds, there's a lot of institutional buyers in those markets. In the municipal market, it's primarily retail driven.So, when you know, individual retail investors get nervous, they tend to pull money out of the market. So, what we saw was money coming out of the market. At the same time, we saw an individual increase in more bonds, which just led to very weak technicals, which when we see that it eventually reverses itself.Mark Schmidt: Now I almost buried the lede, right? Why invest in munis? Well, they're great credit quality, but they're also tax free. In fact, muni bonds have been exempt from federal taxes for over a century. You have a lot of experience putting together tax bills, and right now people are worried about tax reform. Do you think investors should be concerned?Craig Brandon: Listen. I'm not really losing a lot of sleep at night over the tax exemption. And I think there's other, you know, issues to worry about. Why do I say that?As you mentioned Mark, I spent the early years of my career working for the New York State Assembly Ways and Means Committee. I spent seven years negotiating budgets and what that did is it gave me a window – into how, you know, not only state budgets, but the federal budget gets put together.So, what it also showed me was the relationship between state and local elected officials and your representatives in Congress and your representatives in the Senate. So, I know firsthand that members of Congress and members of the Senate in Washington have very close relationships with members of the state legislatures, with governors, with mayors, with city council members, with school board members – who are all delivering the message that significantly higher financing costs that could potentially happen from the loss of the exemption, could be meaningful to them.And I think members of Congress and members of the Senate and Washington get it. They understand it because they were all there when it happened. The last time the muni exemption came under fire was back in 2012; and in 2012, a lot of members of Congress were in the state legislature back then, so they understand it.Mark Schmidt: That's reassuring because right now, tax equivalent yields in the muni market are 7 to 8 per cent. That's equal to or greater than the long run rate of return on the stock market. So, whether to invest in the muni market seems pretty straightforward. How to invest in the muni market? Well, with 50,000 issuers, that's a little complicated. How do you recommend investors get exposure to tax-free munis right now?Craig Brandon: Well, and that is a very common question. The muni market can be very confusing because there are just so many bonds out there. You know, over 50,000 issuers, there's over a million individual CUSIPs in the muni market.So as an individual investor, where do you start? There's different coupon structures, different call structures, different maturity structures, ratings. There's so many different variables that go into a decision in investing in muni bonds.I can make an argument that you could probably mimic the S&P 500 with 500 different stocks. But most muni indices are over 50,000 constituents. It's very difficult to replicate the muni market by yourself, which is why a lot of people, you know, they let professional money managers, do the investing for them. Whether you're looking at mutual funds, whether you're looking at separately managed accounts, whether you're looking at exchange traded fund ETFs, there's a lot of different ways to get exposure to the muni market. But with the huge amount of choices you have to make, I think a lot of individual investors would just let a professional with the experience do it.Mark Schmidt: And active managers let you customize portfolios to your unique tax situation and risk tolerance. So, Craig, a final question for you. How do munis fit into a diversified portfolio?Craig Brandon: Munis are generally the stable part of most people's portfolios. Remember, you don't have a choice of whether you're going to pay your taxes or not. You have to pay your taxes, you have to pay your water bill, you have to pay your power bill. You have to pay tolls on highways. You have to pay airport fees when you buy an airline ticket, right?It's not an option. So, because the revenue streams are so stable, you see most muni bonds rated AA or AAA. The default rate for rated munis is significantly below 1 per cent. It's something in the ballpark of about 0.2 per cent*. So, with such a low default rate – listen, we're technically driven, as I said. You see ups and downs in the market. But over a longer period of time, munis can give you generally stable returns, tax exempt income over the long term, and they're one of the more stable asset classes that you see in your overall portfolio.Mark Schmidt: That sounds boring, and I mean that in the best possible way. Craig, thanks so much for your time today.Craig Brandon: Thanks, Mark, happy to be hereMark Schmidt: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.*“US Municipal Bond Defaults and Recoveries, 1970-2021” – Moody's Investor ServicesDisclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The returns referred to in the commentary are those of representative indices and are not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment.Risk ConsiderationsDiversification does not eliminate the risk of loss.There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. 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Investors hit the sell button in Sydney after PM Anthony Albanese’s reelection. Hosted by Michelle Martin with Ryan Huang, this episode unpacks Warren Buffett’s shock decision to step down from Berkshire Hathaway, with Greg Abel set to lead. We spotlight Morgan Stanley’s top AI stock pick: TSMC. Plus, how are Exxon Mobil, Shell, Marks & Spencer, and Singapore’s Straco performing? And a look at STI movers like DFI Retail, Hong Kong Land, and CapitaLand Investment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Crypto News: Morgan Stanley is building a crypto trading feature for E*Trade, targeting a 2026 launch. Google is enhancing its Wallet service with blockchain zero-knowledge proof technology for privacy-focused age verification.Show Sponsor - ✅ VeChain is a versatile enterprise-grade L1 smart contract platform https://www.vechain.org/ 

Our Chief Korea and Taiwan Economist Kathleen Oh discusses Korea's recent pension reform and its implications for the country's rapidly aging population.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Kathleen Oh, Morgan Stanley's Chief Korea and Taiwan Economist. Today I'll revisit Korea's demographic emergency and how the recent pension reform is trying to address it.It's Thursday, May 1st, at 4pm in Hong Kong.Some of you may remember that I came on the show last fall to talk about the crisis-level demographic challenges in Korea. Korea officially became a super-aged society at the end of 2024. This means that more than 20 per cent of the population is 65 or older.In the face of its rapidly aging population and a fertility rate that has hit rock bottom, Korea is taking decisive action finally. The national assembly recently passed a landmark pension reform bill to amend the National Pension Act. This measure marks the first major change to its pension system in 18 years. And it's supposed to improve the pension fund's financial sustainability to prepare for a rapidly aging population that will only accelerate from here.The amendments include raising pension contribution rates and adjusting the income replacement ratio to 43 per cent. These changes aim to delay the depletion of the fund to 2064 to 2071, in an upside scenario. Without this reform, the fund would have been depleted by 2055, just 30 years later.This reform avoids having to sell the fund's financial assets by delaying depletion. It also assures pension-holders of the stability of future pension assets. And, last but not least, it increases the pension fund's capacity for financial investments, which could lead to higher returns.This is the first step towards making legislative, and therefore more structural changes to respond to the reality of a super-aged society. Moreover, it kicks off a sweeping reform agenda that includes the pension program, labor market, education system, and capital markets.It's also notable because the center-left Democratic Party of Korea and the conservative People Power Party were able to show bipartisan support and a public consensus to reach a deal, especially during the recent tumultuous political events that took place in Korea.That said, the reform also has some potentially negative economic impacts. Higher pension contributions could squeeze households' disposable income, putting mild but additional downward pressure on aggregate consumption and savings. Especially considering that as people age, they tend to consume less – and this can lead to a structural slowdown in private consumption.Despite Korea's challenges with an aging population, we're cautiously optimistic about its future – especially because [of] the recent rebound in the country's fertility rate. After marking a drop every year since 2015, it rebounded to 0.75 in 2024. While still far below the ideal replacement ratio of 2.1, this rebound is a small but certainly a positive sign.Looking ahead, Korea's working population is expected to decrease by 50 per cent in the next 40 years unless the country ensures a dramatic rebound in the fertility rate to 1.0 or higher by 2030. In the meantime, we expect further adjustments to the pension reform bill, we expect further discussions around lifting of retirement age, along with the labor market reform next in line on the economic front. The Korean government will continue to execute on its demographic policy agenda.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Despite news that the UK economy is set to slow due to uncertainty around US trade policy, our analysts Andrew Sheets and Bruna Skarica explain why they have a more optimistic outlook.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Bruna Skarica: And I'm Bruna Skarica, Chief UK Economist at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today we're going to talk about the United Kingdom and why, despite a downbeat outlook by many in the market, we remain more optimistic.It's Friday, May 2nd at 2pm in London.Bruna, it's great to talk to you again about the UK and not just because this is an unusual day in London where it's sunny and warm, and at the moment warmer than Los Angeles. You know, when discussing the UK, I do think you kind of need to take a step back. This is a country and an economy that's had a tough number of years where growth has been sub-trend, inflation's been higher, and a lot of assets have traded at a discount.So maybe just to give some context, talk to us a little bit about the last couple of years in the UK and the challenges the economy has faced.Bruna Skarica: Indeed, Andrew, I do think it's important to take a step back to appreciate just the amount of supply side shocks the UK has seen in recent years. First, between 2016 and 2020, of course, the country had to navigate Brexit negotiations. The elevated uncertainty kept a lid on business CapEx. In 2020, of course, as the rest of the world, we saw the lockdown and the pandemic. What followed were supply chain disruptions, and then, the European energy shock in 2022. I do want to zoom in on this final point because in its scale, the natural gas price surge in the UK was twice more of a hit to growth compared to the 1970s oil price shock.We've also seen a fair share of volatile market moves, most notably around the mini budget in the autumn of 2022. On top of all of this, the Bank of England into these supply side shocks had to hike interest rates to cap the inflation surge. And they went to above 5 per cent and have recently been relatively slower in reducing policy restrictiveness than most of its peers.So, when you tally all these factors up, it's really no surprise that the UK has seen an exceptionally weak post COVID recovery.Andrew Sheets: And that's continued right into this year. You know, I remember a lot of conversations with global investors heading into 2025, and again, the sentiment around the UK was kind of downbeat. Growth was pretty soft. Inflation was still high. Because inflation was high, interest rates here were still quite high. And so, you really had this, you know, unattractive mix of weak growth, high inflation, tight monetary policy. And then you could throw onto that, this uncertainty around the U.S. and trade. And you had a Trump administration that was adopting a more adversarial policy towards trade and towards Europe, which the UK was getting caught up in.So, you know – again, did I miss any of the challenges that the UK was facing, entering this year?Bruna Skarica: No, I think that's a great summary. First, at the end of last year, of course, the government faced some pretty tough decisions in the October budget, and they hiked a tax – a payroll tax really – in order to balance the books, which created somewhat subdued sentiment around the labor market this year.Now the labor market has been soft in the UK at the start of this year, but it did hold up a little bit better perhaps than the expectations from the end of last year. At the start of the year, we also saw the energy inflation forecast rise. So, that led to a more cautious tone by the Bank of England in February and March, as you mentioned. And now on the trade front, although we have a small manufacturing sector, we are a small open economy, we're a big beta to global growth dynamics.I would just like to mention here that one of the real bright spots of the UK economy in recent years have been services exports to the U.S., the kind of high-value-added white-collar services exports, which rose between 2019 and 2023 by 50 per cent. Now with the growth in the U.S. slowing and obviously the Euro area as well, UK growth will be affected too this year. We actually took our growth forecast down by around 30 basis points in our latest GDP revisions.Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, we're here to talk about the future and you know, I do think it's fair to say that going forward we think this picture is starting to look better. So, let's jump right into that. Across a number of specific points. Why do we think the UK story could look better as you look ahead?Bruna Skarica: Absolutely. I mean, the last point that I mentioned, I do think I want to put it in context. The trade related revisions in the UK are still less than what our colleagues in the euro area and the U.S. had undertaken in recent months on the back of the U.S. trade policy shifts. So, the UK does look a little bit like a relative winner there.Second, we now think that inflation can come down faster than both the Bank of England and the market expected at the beginning of the year. Commodities prices will do a fair bit of heavy lifting this year, but we do think that next year in particular, domestically generated inflation could slow fairly sharply as wage growth sticks around 3 to 3.5 per cent, which we think is fairly inflation target consistent.This all means the Bank of England should be able to cut more than the markets expect. We anticipate 125 basis point worth of cuts between May and November, and we think the terminal rate could fall to as low as 2 ¾. So, we think the neutral rate in the UK is between 2.5 to 3.5 per cent, and we do think the market still has a bit of adjustment to do in the sense of the pricing of the terminal rate one and two years ahead.The third point around fiscal policy I think is quite interesting. Fiscal policy has been in great focus in the UK in recent years. We had a big fiscal event in October. We had another fiscal event just now in March. The borrowing increase was less than what the market expected. Deficit projections are such that we are expecting deficit to fall from around 4.8 per cent this year to 3 per cent over the course of the next three years, and for debt to GDP ratio to remain at around 100 per cent of GDP. I would perhaps contrast that with France where our economist is expecting the deficit to remain north of 5 per cent over the course of the next two years.Finally, an important point to make is that the UK government amid trade shifts in the U.S. is looking for a closer relationship with the EU, or rather a trade reset with the EU. EU remains our closest trading partner and in the aftermath of Brexit, the current government has an ambition to improve trading in food and goods; and also to ensure that the UK is part of the European Defense Program, which would allow UK defense companies to partake in the defense and security path that the European Union presented in recent weeks. There is a summit being held on May 19th, and obviously the trade and corporation agreement is coming up for revision in 2026.So, we do think those relations between UK and the EU could become somewhat closer over the course of this year and next.But now a question from me, which is, what does all this mean on the strategy side? UK assets have obviously been quite unloved in recent years. Do you think that's about to change?Andrew Sheets: So again, I think it's pretty interesting that markets are anticipatory, and I think markets are pretty smart here. So, you've already seen the British pound, the currency do quite well. This year it's up against the dollar. You've seen the UK stock market do quite well. It's up about 5 per cent this year, despite the S&P 500 being down quite significantly.So, you're already seeing, I think, some signs that investors are warming up to the UK and you know, I do think that if our expectations play out, that could continue. You know, UK stocks do tend to be concentrated and slower growing, less exciting sectors. But their valuations are also less demanding. You know, the U.S. Stock Index trades at about 21 times next year's earnings. The UK stock market trades a little bit under 13 times next year's earnings.And I also think it's really important that if the Bank of England does cut interest rates more than the market expects, which again, as you discussed, is one of our expectations here at Morgan Stanley, that could be pretty supportive for the UK bond market, which continues to offer pretty high yields.Bruna, thanks for joining me for this conversation. It's always great to catch up with you.Bruna Skarica: My pleasure, Andrew. Thank you for the invite.Andrew Sheets: And thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

As Apple again earns more than predicted, it's also been hit by a punishing legal ruling, but then there are also new iPhone 17 dummies, and a "portable" Mac mini, on the AppleInsider Podcast.Contact your hosts:@williamgallagher_ on Threads@WGallagher on TwitterWilliam's 58keys on YouTubeWilliam Gallagher on email@hillithreads on Threads@Hillitech on TwitterWes on BlueskyWes Hilliard on emailSponsored by:Fast Growing Trees: Visit fast-growing-trees.com/appleinsider to get an additional 15% off plants and trees, even the many already discounted to half priceLinks from the Show:Last quarter before Trump tariffs sees Apple beat Wall Street with $95.4 billion earningsJudge sanctions Apple for blatantly violating 'Fortnite' App Store order'Fortnite' could return to Apple App Store if Apple accepts Epic peace proposalApple on anti-steering injunction violation ruling: 'We strongly disagree'iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Air, and iPhone 17 Pro - the best look yetGoogle wants Gemini AI deal with Apple by mid-2025A Mac mini can be made portable for about three times the cost of a MacBook AirApple's M4 Mac mini can be portable with the right batteryApple shifts robotics team away from Giannandrea's AI organization to prioritize hardwareArms race: Apple's waiting for robotics for US iPhone assembly, says Commerce SecretaryTwo new iPhone factories years in the making open in IndiaApple wants nearly every iPhone 18 sold in the US to come from IndiaTSMC breaks ground on third plant in ArizonaApple revenue could actually benefit from China tariff warConsumers get ahead of tariffs, Morgan Stanley hikes AAPL price target to $235Apple quietly launches 'Snapshot' artists, actors, and athletes discovery guideSupport the show:Support the show on Patreon or Apple Podcasts to get ad-free episodes every week, access to our private Discord channel, and early release of the show! We would also appreciate a 5-star rating and review in Apple PodcastsMore AppleInsider podcastsTune in to our HomeKit Insider podcast covering the latest news, products, apps and everything HomeKit related. Subscribe in Apple Podcasts, Overcast, or just search for HomeKit Insider wherever you get your podcasts.Subscribe and listen to our AppleInsider Daily podcast for the latest Apple news Monday through Friday. You can find it on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.Those interested in sponsoring the show can reach out to us at: advertising@appleinsider.com (00:00) - Intro and Apple Earnings (01:44) - Epic Games and Other Stories (24:35) - Age verification (32:41) - iPhone 17 dummies (41:11) - Google Gemini (44:03) - "Portable" Mac mini (50:20) - John Giannandrea (55:21) - Controversy Corner (01:04:28) - Slow, slow, Snapshot ★ Support this podcast on Patreon ★

“We exist (to help your credit union get to where you want to go) and we will deliver real results with a real heart.” – Shawn MelamedThank you for tuning in to The CUInsight Network, with your host, Robbie Young, Vice President of Strategic Growth at CUInsight. In The CUInsight Network, we take a deeper dive with the thought leaders who support the credit union community. We discuss issues and challenges facing credit unions and identify best practices to learn and grow together. My guest on today's show is Shawn Melamed, CEO and co-founder of Spiral. Shawn tells us about his journey from a game-obsessed kid to a serial entrepreneur, managing director at Morgan Stanley, and now CEO of Spiral.In our conversation, we talk about how Spiral is helping credit unions compete in a crowded market and build meaningful relationships with their members. It isn't only about financial wellness—it's about creating a system that rewards people for being intentional with their money and gives them tools to do good without making it overly complicated.As we wrap up the episode, Shawn talks about a former boss who led with empathy and confidence, his family's love of traveling, the books he thinks everyone should read, and the importance of being disciplined when it comes to work-life balance. Enjoy my conversation with Shawn Melamed! Find the full show notes on cuinsight.com.Connect with Shawn:Shawn Melamed, CEO and co-founder of Spiralspiral.usShawn: LinkedInSpiral: LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok | XBook mentioned: The Mamba Mentality: How I Play by Kobe BryantBook mentioned: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho

Running and cardiac health go hand in hand. In today's podcast, we revisit our conversation with Dr. Sanjay Sharma, Professor of Cardiology and Head of Research at St George's University of London as we dive deep into how running enhances cardiac health and how to safeguard ourselves from any cardiac risks that might be related to the sport.With hot and humid conditions torching the country, this podcast will help you understand the effect of the environmental conditions on the heart, the tests you can undergo to assess your heart health and the symptoms to keep an eye out for which are a great indicator to pause your running and get yourself examined by your physician.About Vikas Singh:Vikas Singh, an MBA from Chicago Booth, worked at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, APGlobale, and Reliance before coming up with the idea of democratizing fitness knowledge and helping beginners get on a fitness journey. Vikas is an avid long-distance runner, building fitpage to help people learn, train, and move better.For more information on Vikas, or to leave any feedback and requests, you can reach out to him via the channels below:Instagram: @vikas_singhhLinkedIn: Vikas SinghTwitter: @vikashsingh101Subscribe To Our Newsletter For Weekly Nuggets of Knowledge!

Irrespective of the numbers, financial storytelling and strategic communication play a massive role in influencing market perceptions. Hamza Fodderwala, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley, joins CJ to discuss the critical role of CFOs in shaping and communicating a company's financial story. Hamza explains the role of storytelling in driving stocks, the significance of aligning company narratives with prevailing market themes, the metrics that software investor analysts do and don't want to see, the delicate balance of transparency in financial disclosures, and the art and science of giving good guidance. Hear how to balance long-term thinking with short-term market pressures and whether you should focus on managing expectations or results.If you're looking for an ERP, head to NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning.—SPONSORS:NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than 40,000 companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform, head to NetSuite https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning.Planful is a financial performance management platform designed to streamline financial tasks for businesses. It helps with budgeting, closing the books, and financial reporting, all on a cloud-based platform. By improving the efficiency and accuracy of these processes, Planful allows businesses to make better financial decisions. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.Subscript is a modern billing and revenue recognition platform designed for SaaS finance teams that need flexibility and accuracy. From automated invoicing and dunning to compliant, transparent revenue recognition and real-time analytics, Subscript eliminates manual work, reduces errors, and gives you a single source of truth for all your financial data. Book a free demo at subscript.com.Rippling Spend is a spend management solution that handles your entire company's spending in one unified system. It enables you to bring your corporate cards, expense management, bill pay, and more into one place to achieve real-time visibility and uniquely granular control with automated policy controls across every type of spend. Get a demo to see how much time your org would save at rippling.com/metrics.Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation. Over 9000 businesses use it to automate compliance needs across over 35 frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001. Centralize security workflows, complete questionnaires up to five times faster, and proactively manage vendor risk. For a limited time, get $1,000 off Vanta at vanta.com/metrics.Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities to automating painful procurement workflows and giving you the best market data to turn vendor negotiations in your favor, Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how.—LINKS:Hamza Fodderwala on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hamza-fodderwala-66997526/Morgan Stanley: https://www.morganstanley.com/CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222Mostly metrics: http://mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Preview and Intro(02:03) Sponsor – NetSuite | Planful | Subscript(05:54) Sell-Side” Versus “Buy-Side”(07:34) Some of the Companies Hamza Covers(08:23) The Role of Storytelling in Driving Stocks(12:29) How CrowdStrike Turned Its Investor Narrative Around(16:09) Sponsor – Rippling Spend | Vanta | Tropic(20:11) What Sets Good CFOs Apart When It Comes to Storytelling(23:57) The Metrics That Software Investor Analysts Want To See(25:10) Does a CFO Need To Understand the Underlying Technology(26:14) How Often a Company Can or Should Shift Its Narrative(28:14) How To Retire a Metric Gracefully(33:29) The Art and Science Behind Giving Good Guidance(37:29) Metrics That Can Be Retired(39:25) Separating Business Fluctuations From the Broader Economy(42:57) Long-Term Thinking Versus Market Pressures(46:33) Managing Expectations Versus Managing Results(47:52) An Example of Where the Market Misread a Company's Results(50:01) Hamza's Most Memorable Earnings Call(51:52) Investor Days: Net Positive or Neutral(54:00) The Buzzword Hamza Would Ban From Earning Calls Get full access to Mostly metrics at www.mostlymetrics.com/subscribe

Tid er penger har hatt gleden av å ha tidligere bank-topp fra både Bank of America og Morgan Stanley som gjest i podcasten. Han forklarer her hvordan forhandlinger mellom banker og sjefer faktisk fungerer og hvordan man kan bruke den erfaringen for å forstå politikk i 2025, og spesifikt det mye omtalte møtet fredagen i Det hvite hus mellom Trump og Zelensky. Spennende å få se bak forhenget.Publisert første gang 6. mars på Patreon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our analysts Michael Zezas and Rajeev Sibal unpack the significance of a little-discussed clause in the Trump administration's tariff policy, which suggests investors should think less about countries and more about products.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Rajeev Sibal: And I am Rajeev Sibal, Senior Global Economist.Michael Zezas: Today we look through the potential escalation and de-escalation of tariff rates and discuss what the lasting impact of higher tariffs will be for companies and the economy.It's Wednesday, April 30th at 11am in New York.Rajeev Sibal: And 4pm in London.Michael Zezas: Last week during a White House News conference, President Trump announced that tariffs on goods from China will come down substantially, but it won't be zero. And this was after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made comments about high tariffs against China being unsustainable, according to some news reports.Now, some of this has been walked back, and there's further discussion of challenging negotiations with China and potential escalations if those negotiations don't go well. Meanwhile, Canadian voters elected a Liberal government, led by Mark Carney yesterday. That federal election played out against the backdrop of the U.S. proposing higher tariffs on its northern neighbors. So, Rajeev, amidst all this noise, what seems clear is that tariff levels will end up higher than where we started before President Trump took office. Though we don't exactly know how high they will be. What is it that investors need to understand about the economic impacts of higher tariffs just generically?Rajeev Sibal: So yeah, we do view that tariffs are going to structurally be higher than they were before the Trump administration. This has been a baseline of our outlook since last year. Now I think the challenge is figuring out where they're going to settle as you've highlighted. We do think that peak tariff was probably a couple weeks ago, when we were at the max pain threshold, vis-a-vis China and the rest of the world. We've since seen the reciprocal tariffs move to 10 per cent for everyone but China.China's clearly higher than 60 per cent today, but we do think that over time the implied rate to China will start to graduate and come down. If you look at the electronics exemption for example, that's a big step in getting the average tariff rate out of China lower. So, we think we're on a journey. We think we were past peak tariff pain in terms of level. But over the next few months, it's going to take some time and negotiation to figure out where we settle. And we are still looking to kind of our baseline outlook, that had been defined some time ago of a 10 per cent baseline with an elevated level on China, if you will.Michael Zezas: So, I think this is an important point, that there's a lot of back and forth about tariff levels, which countries are going to be levied on, to what degree, and to what products. But at the end of the day, we think there'll be more tariffs than where we started.Rajeev, you have a view on where investors should focus, in terms of what tariffs are durable. And maybe at the end of the day it'll be less about countries and more about products. Can you talk us through that?Rajeev Sibal: You know, on April 2nd when the Trump administration released the fact sheet about tariffs and reciprocal tariffs, there was a small clause in there that I think the market did not pay enough attention to, and which is becoming front and center now.And in that clause, they identified that a number of tariffs related to Section 232 would be exempted from reciprocal tariffs. And the notion is that country tariffs would evolve or shift into sector tariffs over time. And in the note that we recently published, we highlighted some of the legal mechanisms that may be at play here. There's still a lot of uncertainty as to how things will settle down, but what we do know is that legally speaking, country tariffs are coming through IEEPA, which is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act; whereas section and sector tariffs are coming through Section 232; and some of the other section structures that exist in U.S. trade law.And so, the experience of 2018 leaned a lot more to these sections than it did to IEEPA. And that was a guiding, I guess, mechanism for us, as we thought about what was happening in the current tariff structure. And the fact that the White House included this carve out, if you will, for Section 232 tariffs in their April 2nd fact sheet was a big lead indicator for us that, over time, there would be an increased shift towards sectors.And, so for us, we think the market should be focusing more in that direction. As we think about how this evolves over time, now that we've not completely de-escalated, but brought a materially lower tariff level and everywhere in the world except for China. The big variability is probably going to be in the sector tariffs now going forward.Michael Zezas: So, what sectors do you think are particularly in focus here?Rajeev Sibal: So, on the April 2nd fact sheet that the White House provided to countries and to the market, they specifically identified steel, aluminum, autos and auto parts as already having Section 232 tariffs. And we know that's true because those investigations had started in a prior Trump administration. And so, kind of the framework was already in place for them to execute those tariffs.The guidance then suggested that copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber would also potentially fall under Section 232 tariffs in the future. And then there's been a range of indications as to what might be in play, so to speak, for Section 232.I know pharmaceuticals is at the top of the list of many investors, as are semiconductors. So, this is our kind of sample list, but we're pretty certain that this will evolve over time. But that's where we're starting.Michael Zezas: Okay, so pharmaceutical, semiconductors, automobile, steel, aluminum. It's a pretty substantial list. So, if that's the sort of end game landscape here – relatively elevated China tariffs, and then all of these products specific tariffs – what does an investor need to know about a company's options in this world? Can companies just rewire their supply chains around all of this? And you know, ultimately there's some temporary price pain. But once things are rewired around this, that should dissipate. Or are the decisions more difficult than that and that there has to be some cost passed through to the consumer or to the companies themselves – because this is just too many tariffs in too many places?Rajeev Sibal: Yeah, so I think the latter of your question – the difficulty – is really where we need to be thinking about what's happening here. If you think about the bigger picture, and you go back to the note that we collaborated on earlier in the year called Supply Chain Strain, we highlighted the complexity of moving factors of production and the extreme levels of investment that have required to shift factors of production.So, companies, if they're going to move a factory from country A to country B, have to make sure that country B has the institutional framework, that it has the capital, it has the labor input, and this is a big, big decision. So, as a company you're not going to make that decision to shift your investment or reconstruct productive facilities in a new country – until you understand the cost benefit analysis. And in order to understand the cost benefit analysis, you really need to know what the sector-based Section 232 tariff looks like in the end.If we remember back in 2018, the government tried to implement a wide range of tariffs. On average, it took about 250 days for each investigation to be completed. And that's a long timeframe. And so, I think what we're going through now, apart from automobiles and steel and aluminum where that process has kind of already been done, and we kind of have the framework of the tariffs and the new sectors, companies are going to have to wait for this investigation to take place so that they understand what the tariff level is. Because the tariff level is going determine the risk of actually shifting productive facilities. Or if you just kind of absorb the cost because the tariff isn't at a high enough level that it incentivizes the shift.And so, these are the changes that I think remain an open question and will be the focus of companies over the next few months as their sectors are exposed to tariffs.Michael Zezas: Right. So, what I think I'm hearing then, and correct me if I'm wrong, is that some of the focus on the China tariffs or the country level specific tariffs in the headlines – about they're moving up, they're moving down – might mask that at the end of the day, we're still dealing with considerably higher tariffs on a broad enough array of products; that it will mean difficult choices for companies and/or higher costs. And so therefore markets are still going to have to price some of the economic challenges around that.Rajeev Sibal: Yeah, I think that's absolutely right. And we've seen the market try to price some of this stuff at a country level context. But it's been hard. And, you know, even the headline tariff rate in the U.S. is really hard to pin down for the simple reason that we don't know if the Mexican and Canadian trade into the U.S. is compliant or non-compliant, and how that gets counted in the current structure of the tariff regime. And so, as these questions remain outstanding, markets are going to be volatile, trying to figure out where the tariff level is. I think that uncertainty at a country level then shifts to the sector level as we go through these investigations that we've been highlighting.Autos is a great example. We finished the investigation. We've implemented a Section 232 tariff, and we still don't know what the implied auto tariff rate is because we don't know how many parts in a car are compliant within existing free trade agreements of the United States; and if they're compliant or not really determines what the implied tariff level is for the U.S. And until companies can decide and give forward guidance and understand what their margins look like, I think markets are going to be in this guessing game.Michael Zezas: Yeah, and that certainly syncs up with our fixed income strategy views. The idea that yield curves will continue to steepen to deal with the uncertainty about U.S. trade policy and demand for dollars, as a consequence. That equity markets might be moving sideways as perhaps we priced in some of the first order effects of tariffs, but not necessarily the second order, potentially non-linear effects on the broader global economy. And unfortunately, the lingering uncertainties that you talk about implementation, they're going to be with us for awhile.Rajeev Sibal: Yeah, I think that's really fair. And our economics outlook mirrors that as well.Michael Zezas: Well, Rajeev, thanks for joining us today to help us sort through all of thisRajeev Sibal: Mike, thanks for having me on the podcast.Michael Zezas: And to all of you, thanks for listening. If you found this podcast helpful, let us know and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

This episode is a total blast and tour de force from one of the world's foremost business communicators, Dorie Clark! Dorie is a Wall Street Journal bestselling author, a contributor to the Harvard Business Review, a communication coach and mentor for world-class leaders, and a keynote speaker who has consulted with or spoken for Google, Microsoft, Morgan Stanley, Yale University, and the World Bank.In this episode, you'll hear a signature story Dorie uses in support of her premise and her book, The Long Game: How to Be a Long-Term Thinker in a Short-Term World. Together, we dissect what makes the story work, as well as discuss:How to source and develop stories for your workThe formula thinkers like Dorie and Malcolm Gladwell use to turn expertise into powerful ideasThe 3 components of being recognized for your expertise...and more. Dorie is an exceptional communicator who has shared her ideas all over the world. You're in for a treat!Learn more about Dorie and buy her incredible books at dorieclark.com.***ABOUT ME, JAY ACUNZO:I help my clients package and communicate their expertise to differentiate & resonate, so it's easier to attract more and better clients. Through stronger messaging, speaking, and storytelling, you'll build your business on the impact of your ideas, not the volume of your marketing.Go from constantly chasing business to being highly sought, relying more on the influence of your ideas and less on the volume of your marketing.Subscribe to my free newsletter at jayacunzo.comWork with me one-on-one to fix your message or nail your next speech: jayacunzo.com/servicesBook me to speak to your group: jayacunzo.com/keynotesConnect with me on social: LinkedIn, Instagram, Bluesky***ENJOY THE SHOW? PLEASE SAY THANKS:Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Leave a rating on Spotify 

Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats discusses the ongoing volatility in the oil market and potential macroeconomic scenarios for the rest of this year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodities Strategist. Today on the podcast – the uncertainty in the oil market and how it can play out for the rest of the year.It's Tuesday, April 29th, at 3pm in London.Now, notwithstanding the energy transition, the cornerstone of the world's energy system is still the oil market; and in that market, the most important price is the one for Brent crude oil. Therefore, fluctuations in oil prices can have powerful ripple effects on various industries and sectors, as well as on the average consumer who, of course, pays attention to gasoline prices at the pump. Now with that in mind, we are asking the question: what's been happening in the global oil market recently?Earlier this month, Brent crude oil prices dropped sharply, falling 12.5 per cent over just two trading sessions, from around 75 dollars a barrel to close to 65 dollar a barrel. That was primarily driven by two factors: first, worries about the impact of trade wars on the global economy and therefore on oil demand, after the Trump administration's announcement of reciprocal tariffs.Secondly, was OPEC's announcement that, notwithstanding all the demand uncertainty that this created, it would still accelerate supply growth, progressing not only with the planned production increases for May; but bring forward the planned production increases for June and July as well. Now you can imagine, when OPEC releases extra production whilst the GDP outlook is weakening, understandably, this weighs on the price of oil.Now to put things into context, two-day declines of 12.5 per cent are rare. The Brent futures market was created in 1988, and since then this has only happened 24 times, and 22 of those instances coincided with recessions. So therefore, some commentators have taken the recent drop as a potential sign of an impending recession.Now while Brent prices have recovered slightly from the recent lows, they're still very volatile as they continue to reflect the ongoing trade concerns, the economic outlook, and also a strong outlook for supply growth from OPEC and non-OPEC countries alike. The last few weeks have already seen unusually large speculator selling. So with that in mind, we suspect that oil prices will hold up in the near-term. However, we still see potential for further headwinds later in the year.In our base case scenario, we expect that demand growth will slow down to approximately 0.5 million barrels a day year-on-year by the second half of 2025, and that is down from an an initial estimate earlier in the year when were still forecasting about a million barrel a day growth over the same period. Now this slowdown – coupled with an increase in non-OPEC and OPEC supply – could result in an oversupply of the market of about a million barrels a day over the remainder of 2025. Now with that outlook, we believe that Brent prices could eventually drop further down into the low-$60s.That said, let's also consider a more bearish scenario. Oil demand has never grown continuously during recessions. So if tariffs and counter-tariffs tip the economy into recession, oil demand growth could also fall to zero. In such a situation, the surplus we're currently modeling could be substantially larger, possibly north of 1.5 million barrels a day. Now that would require non-OPEC production to slow down more severely to balance the market. In that scenario, we estimate that Brent prices may need to fall into the mid-$50s to create the necessary supply slowdown.On the flip side, there's also a bullish scenario where we and the market are all overestimating the demand impact. If oil demand doesn't slow down as much as we currently expect and OPEC were to revert quite quickly back to managing the supply side again, then inventories would still build but only slowly. Now in that case, Brent could actually return into the low-$70s as well.All in all, we would suspect that the twin headwinds of higher-than-expected trade tariffs and faster-than-expected OPEC+ quota increases will continue to weigh on oil prices in the months ahead. And so we have lowered our demand forecast for the second half of the year to just 0.5 million barrels a day, year-on-year. And we've also lowered our prices forecasts for 2026; we're now calling for $65 a barrel – that's $5 a barrel lower than we were forecasting before.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

DAMION1White House blasts Amazon over tariff cost report: ‘Hostile and political act'The White House on Tuesday slammed Amazon for reportedly planning to display the cost of President Donald Trump's tariffs next to the total price of products on its site.“This is hostile and political act by Amazon,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. “Why didn't Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?” Leavitt asked.The Trump administration's aggressive swipe came in response to a report that Amazon will soon show consumers how much of an item's cost comes from tariffs. The amount added as a result of tariffs will be displayed right next to each product's total listed price, a person familiar with the plan told the news outlet.WHO DO YOU BLAME?CEO Andrew Jassy.He's the “boss.”Maybe he feels emasculated?Lowest overall batting average (.308)only 6% influence compared to his boss, Jeff Bezos (67%)Not paid like traditional CEOs (relying instead on his $275M in unvested equity) and the $38M that vested last year; so when he's hanging out withHis buddies like Target CEO Brian Cornell ($20M) eBay CEO Jamie Iannone ($22M) have the total summary compensation bragging rights. Not to mention the sad, unmanly CEO Pay Ratio which is listed as 43:1 for Jassy and 753:1 for the DEI-hating Cornell Jeffrey Preston Bezos (67%)I mean he's the actual boss, right?Executive Chair, founder, former CEO, superstar.Hangs out with people like Katy Perry, has a newspaper, sends penis rockets to nowhere, has pretend funds named after himself like the Bezos Earth Fund and the Bezos Day One FundBoard member and former Pepsi CEO Indra NooyiOr maybe this is a DEI problem? Amazon's Audit Committee is tasked with stuff like operational risks, and legal and regulatory matters. Indra chairs this committeeIndra is also involved with very woke-y/DEI-y:stuff like science (Trustee of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center)Stuff like math (Member of the Dean's Advisory Council at MIT's School of Engineering)Stuff like art (Trustee of the National Gallery of Art)And stuff like giving a shit about people, stakeholder-y capitalism stuff (Director of Partnership for Public Service, whose mission is to inspire a new generation of civil servants and to transform the way government works)Former President Joe BidenAmazon later clarified that the plan to show tariff surcharges was “never approved” and is “not going to happen.” Trump personally called Bezos on Tuesday morning to express his displeasure about the initial report that spurred the heated response from the White House.Trump world's Laura Loomer takes aim at a 'woke' Lockheed Martin and its $2 trillion F-35 programLaura Loomer, the far-right activist who has a direct line to President Donald Trump, criticized Lockheed Martin's F-35 program over the weekend, decrying the US defense giant as "woke" and lashing out against the expensive stealth aircraft.In a lengthy post on X, Loomer suggested Lockheed Martin is delivering F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters that "are simply not ready for combat.""The F-35 program, one of the most expensive weapons programs in history, is plagued by delays, defects, & downright incompetence," she wrote Saturday. She said the US Air Force is accepting jets that lack "functional" radar systems, without offering evidence.She also claimed that Lockheed is "increasingly obsessed with pushing a woke agenda." Like many other US defense contractors, Lockheed scrapped its diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in January after Trump returned to the White House.The $2 trillion F-35 program is an appealing target for activists and officials seeking to slash government spending, and it has a well-documented list of problems. The Pentagon's top weapons tester said earlier this year that the program had problems delivering functional software and had fallen behind schedule to test upgraded mission systems.WHO DO YOU BLAME?The 2025 Proxy Statement that mentions “diversity” five times!Of course all five of those instances were in the anti-woke/anti-DEI shareholder proposal introduced by the Bahnsen Family Trust.Not sure how this even made the proxy after Lockheed's anti-DEI move in January: “As we publicly stated following the issuance of President Trump's January 2025 Executive Order on DEI, we will not have goals or incentives based on demographic representation or Affirmative Action Plans. We are actively reviewing our workforce-related policies to ensure they are, and remain, compliant and aligned with the Executive Order and all related applicable legal precedent.”The three-headed white guy leadership group (53% influence)CEO/Chair James Taiclet (25%): $24M in payLead Independent Director and Nominating Committee chair Thomas J. Falk (13%)“Independent” since 2010David Burritt (15%)Longest-tenured director (2008-)Busy beaver: two committees (Audit and Pay); CEO of US. SteelSince this is a woke/DEI issue: the black guy:Nevermind, there are no black people on this boardA woman? It would have to be Debra Reed-Klages (17%)While she has no leadership roles she does sit on the board of Caterpillar, which also removed its DEI policies. What, what?Investors. They should have been holding Lockheed accountable, right?According to MSCI data, average support since 2015 is 95%; no director has even received less than 92% since 2017Say on Pay support is routinely over 90%Starbucks union rejects company's recent offer of at least 2% annual pay raiseStarbucks union delegates involved in contract bargaining voted to reject the coffee chain's latest proposal that guaranteed annual raises of at least 2%, Workers United said. Out of the 490 baristas representing the company's more than 550 unionized U.S. stores, 81% rejected the proposal, which did not offer any changes to economic benefits such as healthcare or any immediate pay hike.WHO DO YOU BLAME?The union, for being greedy.The company pays its baristas about $19 an hour on average currently. That's $39,520 before taxes. A 2% raise would result in an increase of $790.40!InvestorsAverage director support of 96% over past 2 yearsEven 86% support for new CEO Brian Niccol's $96M, including $5M in funny munny cashAnd a devilishly perverse CEO pay ratio of 6,666 to 1.Not to mention Use of Starbucks aircraft for travel between city of primary residence and Starbucks headquarters AND up to $250,000 in personal non-commuting travel per yearWhich brings us to the CEO, Brian Niccol, a guy so wonderful that they scrapped the independent chair nonsense and gave him both titles: CEO and ChairLead Independent Director and Nominating Committee chair Jørgen Vig KnudstorpAveraged over 10% votes against over the past 3 AGMs: which is essentially an investor revolutionHis favorite drink–the Caramel Macchiato–is 250 calories with 33g of sugar: the American Heart Association recommends that women consume no more than 25 grams per dayMATT1Novavax appoints Charles Newton to board of directorsChuck Newton has a background from BofA Merrill, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, and Lehman as an investment banker, and is now CFO at a pharma company. He got his education in business administration and “arts”.Who do we blame for the appointment of Chucky?John Jacobs, CEO and highest influence on the board at 23%New board chair and nom committee chair Margaret McGlynn, who will inherit retiring director James Young's 16% influence to become the most influential person on the board?Too much science?Actual knowledge of pharmaceutical science - Young's retirement means there are only 2 actual scientists left on the board of the 9 members - 6 have finance backgrounds, and 1 is a lawyer.DEI - while Novavax's SEC disclosure says that the 9 person board has 1 male with 2 or more races and 2 women, they actually didn't feel white ENOUGH so they added Charles Newton to have a 100% white board (because black people don't even get malaria, COVID, or flu)They actually claim to have 10 board members when they really have 9Investors - who actually hate this board and can't possibly like it more now?Classified board, last year the new board chair (promotion!) got 52% votes for, the PhD got 58% for, and the guy from the family foundation got 53% for - and yes, exactly 35% of the shares are owned by State Street, Vanguard, BlackRock, and Shah CapitalSam Altman says OpenAI will fix ChatGPT's ‘annoying' new personality as users complain the bot is sucking up to them“ChatGPT's new personality is so positive it's verging on sycophantic—and it's putting people off.”Who do we blame for AI being a big fat suckup?Sam Altman, for being a big fat Trump suckupSam Altman, for having an insipid tech bro personality desperately seeking the fame and attention of the earthSam Altman, for firing his non-suckup board membersSam Altman, for putting himself on the board and surrounding himself with board suckups

Meet Rob Swymer, a Boston native and seasoned sales executive, with over four decades of experience leading high-performance teams through empathy and servant leadership. Key insights from Rob's best-selling book, “Surrender to Your Adversity”: Practical strategies for building resilience. Embracing challenges to thrive personally and professionally. Behind-the-scenes stories from Rob's leadership roles at major Fortune 500 companies, including: Home Depot, Bank of America, Dell, Morgan Stanley, Macy's, Equifax, CSX, Fidelity Information Systems, and Splunk. The power of empathy in leadership—how Rob's servant leadership approach drove results and strengthened teams. Transitioning from Corporate America to giving back: Rob shares his experience retiring as Group VP at Splunk (UK & Ireland) in January 2024. His renewed mission of empowering the next generation of leaders. Mental Health as a Business Imperative: Rob's role as a global mental health disruptor. Why mental wellness is essential for executive success. Lessons from Rob's TEDx experience and insights from appearances on Fox News, ExtraTV, MSN, CBS, NewsNation, NY Post, and CW. Practical tips from a Certified Resilience Coach: Rob provides actionable advice on overcoming adversity, managing stress, and creating lasting success. How to apply resilience strategies in your own life—starting today. Connect with Rob: Learn more about Rob's coaching programs and resources to build resilience and elevate your personal and professional leadership.   Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-swymer-15a1541/  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rob.swymer  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/robswymer/ Website: www.robswymer.com

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses how market volatility over the last month will affect equity markets as earnings season begins.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today, I will discuss what to expect from Equity markets as we enter the heart of earnings season. It's Monday, April 28th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. The S&P 500 tested both the lower and upper ends of our 5000-5500 range last week, reinforcing the notion that we remain in a volatile trading environment. Incrementally positive news on a potential tariff deal with China and hope for a more dovish Fed lifted stocks into the end of the week, and the S&P 500 closed slightly above the upper end of our range. While a modest overshoot of 5500 can persist very short-term, a sustainable break above this level is dependent on developments that have yet to come to fruition. Those include a tariff deal with China that brings down the effective rate materially; a more dovish Fed; 10-year Treasury yields falling below 4 percent without recessionary risks increasing; and a clear rebound in earnings revisions. Bottom line, until we see clear positive shift in one or more of these factors, range trading is likely to continue with risks to the downside given that we are now at the top end of the range. A frequent question we're getting from clients is does the soft data matter for equities or is the market waiting for the hard data to make up its mind in terms of an upside or downside breakout above or below this range? Our view has been consistent that the most important macro data at this stage is from the labor market while the most important micro data are earnings revisions. Equities have already priced a meaningful slowdown in growth relative to expectations. What's not priced is a labor cycle or recession. While this risk has been reduced to some extent given the recent, more dovish tone shift on tariffs from the administration, it's far from extinguished. Until we see clear evidence over multiple months that the labor market remains solid, a recession will likely remain a coin toss. One soft data point to pay attention to this week that could move the market is the April ISM Manufacturing data on May 1st. Recall this series accelerated the August 2024 selloff ahead of a soft July payroll report. The most important takeaway from an equity strategy perspective is to stay up the quality curve. No matter what the hard data says, we remain in a late cycle backdrop where both quality and large cap relative outperformance should continue. While uncertainty remains higher than usual, defensives should continue to do well. However, given their relative outperformance over the past year, it also makes sense to pick spots in high quality cyclicals that have already discounted a material slowdown in both macro conditions and earnings. To be clear, this is not a blanket call on cyclicals; it's a selective, stock-specific one. More specifically, look for quality, cyclical stocks that are more de-risked based on what the stocks are pricing from a forward earnings growth standpoint. See our written research for stock screens. And from a global standpoint, we recommend favoring U.S. over international equities at this point as a weaker dollar should benefit U.S. relative earnings revisions, particularly versus Europe and Japan. Furthermore, less volatile earnings growth and a higher quality bias should benefit the U.S. on a relative basis in today's late cycle backdrop. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this week's MBA Admissions podcast we began by discussing the Round 3 activity on LiveWire; interview invites continue to roll out for this shortened application round; next week several schools are scheduled to release final decisions. Graham noted Clear Admit's Application Overview May series of events. These online events will be hosted on May 6 and 7, and May 20 and 21. Signups are here: https://bit.ly/appoverview25 Already, we have hundreds of signups for each event! Sandwiched in the middle of this series is Clear Admit's MBA Fair in Boston, on May 14th. This event includes panel discussions, one of which is focused on Consulting hiring and is led by Bain. Twenty-four of the top 25 U.S.-based MBA programs are planning to attend, along with London Business School. Signups for this event are here: https://bit.ly/mbafair2025 Graham noted two finance-related articles that were recently published on Clear Admit. The first looks at the number and percentage of students who go into finance from each of the top programs. The second article does a deeper dive into buy-side finance and elite finance careers. Graham then noted an admissions tip, focused on pre-MBA coursework, which may be necessary for those with less traditional undergraduate degrees, or those who need to “repair” their transcript. Graham highlighted three Real Humans alumni spotlights, alums from Berkeley / Haas working at Morgan Stanley, Rice / Jones working at energyRe and Washington / Foster working at Amazon. For this week, for the candidate profile review portion of the show, Alex selected two ApplyWire entries and one DecisionWire entry. This week's first MBA admissions candidate has a 675 GMAT score and a strong GPA. They are from Peru and working in Chile. They have six years of work experience, which does include a five-month gap. This week's second MBA candidate is from Central Asia, now working in Dubai. They have a 330 GRE score, but we are unsure how strong their academic experience has been. The final MBA candidate has an offer from CMU / Tepper and is on the waitlist at several other top MBA programs. They are debating whether they should take the Tepper option, if not admitted from the waitlists, or reapply next season. This episode was recorded in Paris, France and Cornwall, England. It was produced and engineered by the fabulous Dennis Crowley in Philadelphia, USA. Thanks to all of you who've been joining us and please remember to rate and review this show wherever you listen!

Our U.S. and Asia economists Michael Gapen and Chetan Ahya discuss how tariff uncertainty is shaping their expectations for these economies over the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist.Michael Gapen: Today we'll discuss some significant changes to our Asia growth forecast on the heels of tariffs. As well as how the U.S. economy is reacting to the changes in the global trading environment.It's Friday, April 25th at 8am in New York.Chetan Ahya: And 8pm in Hong Kong.Michael Gapen: So, Chetan, since the last time we were both on the show, it appears that we are headed towards at least some de-escalation of trade tensions. Just last week, you wrote in your report that the tariffs on China are too prohibitive for any trade to take place – and that you expected some dialing down of the escalatory action. And this week the administration started to talk about easing tariffs on China significantly.Considering all the events since April 2nd – and it's felt like a lot of events since April 2nd –where does it leave you in terms of how you are thinking about the outlook?Chetan Ahya: So, Mike, that's right. You know what we thought was that the current level of tariffs that the U.S. has on China and what China has on the U.S. means that effectively there are no transactions possibleBut look, even after those tariff rates are going down, we are still expecting it to be in the range of around 60 per cent. And that would still be relatively high level of tariffs. If I were just to translate this into what it means for the whole region? So, for the whole region, the weighted average tariff will still be around 32 per cent. And remember this number was close to 5 per cent in early January.So, we are talking about a huge amount of uncertainty related to this tariff path and the tariff level itself is going to remain somewhat high.And so, with that concern on uncertainty, we are expecting a region's investment growth to be affected significantly, taking down region's growth lower.Michael Gapen: So, Chetan, I was looking over your growth forecast and noticed that you have a sharp step down in growth from the second quarter of 2025 on. Can you walk us through these revisions in particular?Chetan Ahya: So yes, we have changed our forecast and what we are now seeing is in terms of growth path is that Asia's overall GDP growth will slow from 4.8 per cent that we saw in fourth quarter of last year, to around 3.6 per cent by fourth quarter of this year.And for comparable time period, China's growth will slow from 5.4 to 3.7 [per cent]. So that's another meaningful step down for ChinaMichael Gapen: What do you think Asian economies can do to counteract the impact from tariffs at this point?Chetan Ahya: So, we expect the policy makers in the region to take up both monetary and fiscal policy easing. But, you know, despite that policy easing effort, you will still see that meaningful growth drag. So, for China, we think it'll be the fiscal policy that will do the heavy lifting. Whereas for Asia ex-China is going to be more monetary policy that will do the heavy lifting.And in terms of the exact magnitude, we're expecting 50 to 150 basis points depending upon the economy in the region in form of rate cuts. And specifically on China; on the fiscal policy, we expect them to take up about 2.5 per cent of GDP increase in fiscal deficit in form of investment in infrastructure, as well as some programs for supporting consumption spending.Michael Gapen: So Chetan, it sounds like a lot of monetary and fiscal policy easing and support is coming from the Asian economies. But I guess the bottom line is that you don't think it would be sufficient to fully counteract the impact from tariffs. Is that right?Chetan Ahya: That's right Mike. And let me come to you now and get your thoughts on how you see the development of the tariffs, et cetera, affecting the U.S. economy. You've already recently characterized your view on the U.S. economy as still living on the edge. What's driving this view?Michael Gapen: It's a way that we were trying to communicate that, you know, we don't see the economy at the moment, falling into a recession, but we think it's close. If we thought that the effective tariff rate was going to stay where it was -- or where it is -- roughly around 18 per cent, then we would have a much more negative view on the outlook. And we do expect the effective tariff rate to come down for all the reasons that you suggested there. And there's openings for that, to happen. And that's where the conversation has been going in recent days.And so, I think there's a tension between how much uncertainty can be reduced on one hand. And then on the other hand, how quickly volumes in the economy, activity in the economy may slow. So, I think we're in a window here where – where we are in a race against time to bring the effective tariff rate lower, in order to keep the economy in recovery. So that was really my narrative here where living on the edge, where we're not projecting a recession, but we're close enough to one. That, it's almost a coin toss. And I think we need to backpedal here relatively quickly, or we could have much more negative effects on the economy.Chetan Ahya: And Mike, I remember that, in 2018, we did not see this kind of a reaction in the consumer confidence data, but we are seeing that in this cycle. And on top of it, we have this expectation that corporate confidence will also be weighed down by policy uncertainty. So how does this double whammy of weak confidence feature in your forecast?Michael Gapen: I think the key component or in, in this case two key components for the outlook for the economy – because it's relatively straightforward to try and project or pass through the direct effect of tariffs on consumer spending, real incomes and trade volumes. But what's really hard to understand here is what does a highly uncertain environment do to asset markets and business sentiment?So, the, the two channels here that you mentioned, consumer confidence and business confidence. These are kind of what might get you spill over effects, and a recession.So, for the consumer, what we're really focused on here is, yes. Stated confidence by households is weak, but they're still generally spending. And tariffs affect lower- and middle-income houses more than they do upper income households. So, we're really keyed in on: Do equity markets fall enough? Do we get a negative wealth shock on upper income consumers, where they decide, ‘Hey, I feel less wealthy, therefore I'm going to spend less than save more.'So, then the business sector delays spending and may even, you know, generate some layoffs; and recessions, as you know, happen when there's a lot of negative feedback loops in the economy. And so, this is what we're worried about.Chetan Ahya: Another interesting debate, that we as a team are having with the investors is about the Fed policy response. And so, Fed Chair Powell has said that tariffs would generate at least a temporary rise in inflation. How do you think the Fed will handle a tariff induced spike in inflation?Michael Gapen: So, there has been an evolution in the Fed's thought and thinking around how to handle tariffs. Given the dramatic increase in tariffs,, I think the Fed has to wait and they have to see the actual data come in.So, in our view, with inflation rising first and activity weakening later, you probably don't get any Fed cuts this year. And the Fed moves to rate cuts in 2026. If we're wrong in the economy, and, and it decelerates, and moves into a recession more quickly than we would anticipate, and the labor market deteriorates rapidly, then the Fed will ease.But what they're doing here is they're responding to a world where both sides of their mandate are getting worse. And they're going to respond to the one that's more offsides than the other. And in the short run, we think that'll be inflation. So, it means the Fed moves much later than markets currently expect.Chetan Ahya: In terms of the next set of data points or events that you're watching, uh, which can change your view on the growth outlook – what are you really, looking out for?Michael Gapen: Well, I think in the very short run, it's looking at all the inflation data and seeing whether or not the higher tariff rates are getting passed through to the final consumer. We think a little of that will show up in the April inflation data that's due out in the middle of May. That'll be mainly around autos. But then we think the May, June, and July data will begin to show much more increase in goods prices from the tariff pass through. So, we'll be kind of watching that to see whether the inflation impulse is as strong as we think it will be.Second, I think in the very short run, we'll be watching trade volumes. We'll be watching even, shipping container volumes.We'll be watching for blank sales where ships skip ports because there's just not any activity or demand. And then finally, I'd say employment, right? Obviously, expansion versus contraction and whether the economy will stay in expansion phase will be dependent on whether employment continues to grow. We'll get an early look on that. For the April employment data in early May. We don't think there'll be much negative imprint on April employment, but as we move into May, June, and July, we could see hiring slow down more rapidly.So, Chetan, that's what I would point to – just ascertaining the near-term inflation impulse, looking out for any sharp slowdown in trade volumes and whether or not the labor market holds up.Michael Gapen: Before we close, based on what I just described about the U.S. and also how you're thinking about the tariff situation, how would you differentiate the economies in your part of the world? I only have to deal with one. You have to deal with many. How would you differentiate between economies in your region right now?Chetan Ahya: So Mike, what we've tried to do is to think about this more from which economies are more trade oriented and which economies are less trade oriented. Because we are aware about the fact that there is going to be an overall trade slowdown for the region. And so, in that context, India and Australia are the ones we think will be, relatively less affected from this trade slowdown and global growth slowdown. Whereas more trade-oriented economies, which is, you know, the likes of Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia would be getting more affected.; The reality is that China is facing the maximum amount of tariffs within the region. And therefore we are building in a bit more growth slowdown in case of China, even while its trade orientation is a bit lower than Korea and Taiwan.Michael Gapen: Chetan, thanks for taking time to talk today.Chetan Ahya: Great speaking with you, Mike,Michael Gapen: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The Defense Department is launching a new fast-track software approval process. A popular employee monitoring tool exposes over 21 million real-time screenshots. The U.S. opens a criminal antitrust investigation into router maker TP-Link. A pair of health data breaches affect over six million people. South Korea's SK Telecom confirms a cyberattack. A critical zero-day puts thousands of SAP applications at potential risk. Researchers raise concerns over AI agents performing unauthorized actions. “Policy Puppetry” can break the safety guardrails of all major generative AI models. New research tallies the high costs of data breaches. A preview of the RSAC Innovation Sandbox with Cecilia Marinier, Vice President at RSAC, and David Chen, Head of Global Technology Investment Banking at Morgan Stanley. Stocking hard drives full of human knowledge, just in case. Remember to leave us a 5-star rating and review in your favorite podcast app. Miss an episode? Sign-up for our daily intelligence roundup, Daily Briefing, and you'll never miss a beat. And be sure to follow CyberWire Daily on LinkedIn CyberWire Guest Cecilia Marinier, Vice President at RSAC, and David Chen, Head of Global Technology Investment Banking at Morgan Stanley, sit down with Dave to discuss the Innovation Sandbox Contest 2025. Selected Reading Acting Pentagon CIO Signing Off on New, Faster Cyber Rules for Contractors (airandspaceforces) Top employee monitoring app leaks 21 million screenshots on thousands of users (TechRadar)  Router Maker TP-Link Faces US Criminal Antitrust Investigation (bloomberg) Yale New Haven Health Notifying 5.5 Million of March Hack (bankinfosecurity) Frederick Health data breach impacts nearly 1 million patients (BleepingComputer) Hackers access sensitive SIM card data at South Korea's largest telecoms company (bitdefender) SAP Zero-Day Possibly Exploited by Initial Access Broker (SecurityWeek) Chrome Extension Uses AI Engine to Act Without User Input (Infosecurity Magazine) All Major Gen-AI Models Vulnerable to 'Policy Puppetry' Prompt Injection Attack (SecurityWeek) US Data Breach Lawsuits Total $155M Amid Cybersecurity Failures (Infosecurity Magazine) Sales of Hard Drives for the End of the World Boom Under Trump (404media) Share your feedback. We want to ensure that you are getting the most out of the podcast. Please take a few minutes to share your thoughts with us by completing our brief listener survey as we continually work to improve the show. Want to hear your company in the show? You too can reach the most influential leaders and operators in the industry. Here's our media kit. Contact us at cyberwire@n2k.com to request more info. The CyberWire is a production of N2K Networks, your source for strategic workforce intelligence. © N2K Networks, Inc. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our Co-Heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan explain how mortgage rates, tariffs and stock market volatility are affecting the U.S. housing market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. And today we're here to talk about all of the headlines that we've been seeing and how they impact the U.S. housing market.It's Thursday, April 24th at 9am in New York.Jay Bacow: Jim, there are a lot of headlines right now. Mortgage rates have decreased about 60 basis points from the highs that we saw in January through the beginning of April. But since the tariff announcements, they've retraced about half of that move. Now, speaking of the tariffs, I would imagine that's going to increase the cost of building homes.So, what does all of this mean for the U.S. housing market?James Egan: On top of everything you just mentioned, the stock market is down over 15 per cent from recent peaks, so there is a lot going on these days. We think it all has implications for the U.S. housing market. Where do you want me to start?Jay Bacow: I think it's hard to have a conversation these days without talking about tariffs, so let's start there.James Egan: So, we worked on the impacts of tariffs on the U.S. housing market with our colleagues in economics research, and we did share some of the preliminary findings on another episode of this podcast a couple weeks ago. Since then, we have new estimates on tariffs, and that does raise our baseline expectation from about a 4 to 5 per cent increase in the cost of materials used to build a home to closer to 8 per cent right now.Jay Bacow: Now I assume at least some of that 8 per cent is going to get pushed through into home prices, which presumably is then going to put more pressure on affordability. And given the – I don't know – couple hundred conversations that you and I have had over the past few years, I am pretty sure affordability's already under a lot of pressure.James Egan: It is indeed. And this is also coming at a time when new home sales are playing their largest role in the U.S. housing market in decades. New home sales, as a percent of total, make up their largest share since 2006. New homes for sale – so now talking about the inventory piece of this – they're making up their largest share of the homes that are listed for sale every month in the history of our data. And that's going back to the early 1980s.Jay Bacow: And since presumably the cost of construction is much higher on a new home sale than an existing home sale, that's going to have an even bigger impact now than it has when we look to the history where new home sales were making up a much smaller portion of housing activity.James Egan: Right, and we're already seeing this impact come through on the home builder side of this, specifically weighing on home builder sentiment and single unit building volumes. Through the first quarter of this year, single unit housing starts are down 6 per cent versus the first quarter of 2024.Jay Bacow: All right. And we're experiencing a housing shortage already; but if building volumes are going to come down, then presumably that puts upward pressure on home prices. Now, Jim, you mentioned home builder sentiment. But there's got to be home buyer sentiment right now. And that can't feel very good given the sell off in equity markets and what that does with home buyer's ability to afford to put down money for down payment. So how does that all affect the housing market?James Egan: Now that's a question that we've been getting a lot over the past couple weeks. And to answer it, we took a look at all of the times that the stock market has fallen by at least 20 per cent over the past few decades.Jay Bacow: I assume when you looked at that, the answers weren't very good.James Egan: You know, it depends on the question. We identified 10 instances of at least a 20 per cent drawdown in equity markets over the past few decades. For eight of them, we have sufficient home price data. Outside of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which you could argue was a housing led global recession, every other instance saw home prices actually climb during the equity market correction.Jay Bacow: So, people were buying homes during a drawdown in the equity market?James Egan: No home prices were climbing. But in every instance, and here we can go back a little bit further, sales declined during the drawdown. Now, once stock markets officially bottomed, sales climbed sharply in the following 12 months. But while stock prices were falling, so were sales.And Jay, at the top of this podcast, you mentioned mortgage rate volatility. That matters a lot here…Jay Bacow: Can you elaborate on why I said something so thoughtful?James Egan: Well, it's because you're a very thoughtful person. But why mortgage rate volatility matters here? While sales volumes fall in all instances, the magnitude of that decrease falls into two distinct camps. There are four of these roughly 10 instances, where the decrease in sales volumes is large; it exceeds 10 per cent. And again, one of those was that GFC – housing led global recession. But the other three all had mortgage rates increased by at least 200 basis points alongside the equity market selloff.Jay Bacow: So not only were people feeling less wealthy, but homes were getting more expensive. That just seems like a double whammy.James Egan: Bingo. And there were more instances where rates did actually decrease amid the equity market selloff. And while that didn't stop sales from falling, it did contain the decrease. In each of these instances, sales were virtually flat to down low single digits. So, call it a 3 or 4 per cent drop.Jay Bacow: All right, so that's a really good history lesson. What's going to happen now? We've been talking about the housing market being at almost trough turnover rates already for some time.James Egan: Right, so when we think about the view forward, and you talk about trough turnover rates, I've said some version of this statement on this podcast a few times…Jay Bacow [crosstalk]: You're saying it again…James Egan: … but there's some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where rates and affordability are. And coming into this year, we really thought we were at those levels. I'm not saying we don't still think that we're there, but if mortgage rates were to stay elevated like they are today as we're recording this podcast, amid this broader equity market volatility, we do think that could introduce a little bit more downside to sales volumes.Jay Bacow: All right, but if we've got this equity drawdown, then I feel like we've been getting other questions from homeowners' ability to pay for these mortgages – and delinquencies in the pipeline. Do you have anything to highlight there?James Egan: Yes, so I think one of the things we've also highlighted with respect to the unique situation that we're in in the US housing market is – just how low effective mortgage rates are on the outstanding universe versus the prevailing rate today.We've talked about the implications of the lock-in effect. But if we take a closer look on just how much bifurcation that's led to in terms of household mortgage payments as a share of income, depending on when you bought your house. If you bought your house back in 2016, your income, if we at least look at median income growth, is up in the interim.You probably refinanced in 2020 when mortgage rates came down. That monthly payment as a share of today's income, today's median household income, roughly 8.5 per cent. If you bought up the median priced home at prevailing rates in 2024, you're talking about a payment to income north of 26 per cent. When we look at performance from a mortgage perspective, we are seeing real delineations by vintage of mortgage origination – with mortgages before 2021, behaving a lot better than mortgages after 2021. So the 2022 to [20]24 vintages.I would highlight that losses and foreclosures, those remain incredibly contained. We expect them to stay that way. But when we think about all of this on a go forward basis, we do think that mortgage rate volatility is going to be important for sales volumes next year. But everything we talked about should lead to continued support for home prices. They're growing at 4 per cent year-over-year now. By the end of the year, maybe 2 to 3 per cent growth. So, a little bit of deceleration, but still climbing home prices.Jay Bacow: Interesting. So normally we talk about the housing market. It's location, location, location. But it sounds like the timing of when you bought is also going to impact things as well. Jim, always a pleasure talking to you.James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay. And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy this podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

David Giulieri and Michael Svec, senior portfolio management directors and certified financial planners with the Chesapeake Capitol Group at Morgan Stanley, were guests on Nareit's REIT Report podcast. In recognition of April as Financial Literacy Month, Giulieri and Svec touched on a range of topics relevant to novice and seasoned investors alike.Both Giulieri and Svec emphasized the importance of staying calm and focused in today's volatile market environment. “If you can stay disciplined during times like this, the odds of success skyrocket,” Giulieri said. Svec advised listeners to “have a plan, stick to it, and do your best to keep the emotion out of it.”During the interview, Giulieri and Svec also addressed:key questions to ask a potential financial advisorhow to balance the need to have funds available for key financial milestones, like buying a home or paying for college, with ensuring that you're also saving for retirementadvice for anyone already on the investment path, with a 401K or other investment vehicle, who's tempted to look at their latest account statement right nowwhether this is potentially a good time to either begin investing in the markets or to put additional funds inwhat a balanced investment portfolio might look like and how REITs could fit into that

Ever wonder what separates true champions from the rest? It's not just talent — it's how they face adversity head-on. In this episode of The Greatness Machine, Darius sits down with former NFL player, acclaimed speaker, and personal development coach Bo Eason to dive deep into the mindset required to achieve greatness. Bo shares powerful insights on why struggle is not just inevitable but essential for growth. From the lessons he learned on the football field to his experiences as a performer and coach, Bo emphasizes the importance of resilience and the mindset shift that separates champions from the rest. In this episode, Darius and Bo will discuss: (00:00) Introduction and Background (04:01) Bo Eason's Origin Story (10:30) The Power of Belief and Sacrifice (18:56) The Journey to the NFL (25:30) Transitioning from NFL to Theater (32:29) From NFL to Theater: A New Journey (34:55) Mastery Equals Mastery: The Power of Skill Transfer (40:31) The Importance of Patience in Mastery (44:28) Resilience Through Rejection: The Path to Greatness (51:01) The Value of Hard Work Over Winning (56:06) Embracing Struggle: The Key to Success (01:02:40) Eliminating Barriers: The Path to Greatness Bo Eason, a former NFL player for the Houston Oilers and San Francisco 49ers, transitioned from the football field to the stage with his acclaimed one-man play Runt of the Litter, which premiered on Broadway and earned praise from The New York Times. Now a sought-after speaker and trainer, Bo coaches top athletes, executives, and entrepreneurs on powerful communication and leadership, working with clients like Morgan Stanley, Mass Mutual, and Merrill Lynch. Sponsored by: Huel: Try Huel with 15% OFF + Free Gift for New Customers today using my code greatness at https://huel.com/greatness. Fuel your best performance with Huel today! Indeed: Get a $75 sponsored job credit to boost your job's visibility at Indeed.com/DARIUS. NPR Tech Unheard Podcast: Tune into Tech Unheard from Arm and NPM—wherever you get your podcasts. Shipstation: Go to shipstation.com and use code GREATNESS to sign up for your FREE trial. Shopify: Sign up for a $1/month trial period at shopify.com/darius.  Connect with Bo: Website: https://boeason.com/  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/boeasonofficial/  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/boeason21/  Text “Guide” and send to (323)-310-5504 Connect with Darius: Website: https://therealdarius.com/ Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dariusmirshahzadeh/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/imthedarius/ YouTube: https://therealdarius.com/youtube Book: The Core Value Equation https://www.amazon.com/Core-Value-Equation-Framework-Limitless/dp/1544506708 Write a review for The Greatness Machine using this link: https://ratethispodcast.com/spreadinggreatness.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Morgan Stanley's Head of European Consumer Staples, Sarah Simon, discusses why aging populations, wellness trends and Gen Z's moderation are putting pressure on the long-term outlook for alcoholic beverages.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Sarah Simon, Head of the European Consumer Staples team. Today's topic: Is America sobering up? Recent trends point to a national decline in alcohol use.It's Wednesday, April 23rd, at 2pm in London.Picture this: It's Friday night, and you're at a bar with friends. The drinks menu offers many options. A cold beer or glass of wine, sure. But how about a Phony Negroni. And your friends nod approvingly.This isn't just a passing trend – we believe it's a structural shift that's set to reshape the beverage industry. Overall alcohol consumption in volume terms has been relatively flat over the last decade in the U.S. - with spirits growing mid single digits in value terms and beer growing low single digits. But both categories are currently declining. The big debate is whether it's cyclical or structural. We acknowledge that the consumer is under pressure right now, but we equally see long term structural pressures that are starting to play out. There are three key factors behind this trend: increased moderation by younger drinkers, an ageing population, and then broader health and wellness trends. So let's talk first about Gen Z – those born between 1997 and 2012. They're drinking notably less than previous generations of the same age. In fact, today's 18-34 year-olds drink 30 per cent less than the same age group 20 years ago. And we think it's pretty unlikely they will catch up as they get older. This isn't a temporary blip caused by the after-effects of COVID-19 lockdowns or economic pressures. It's a long-term trend that predates both of these factors. And importantly this isn't the case of abstinence – as in the case of tobacco – but moderation. Younger generations are simply drinking less alcohol and allocating more of their beverage spending towards soft drinks. Secondly, developed market populations are ageing. If we look at population data, we see it's today's 45-55 year old age group that drinks the most alcohol; and has exhibited the highest growth in consumption and spending over the last 20 years. However, over the next 20 years, this cohort is likely to cut back on drinking due to physiological reasons as they age. The body simply becomes less able to metabolize alcohol, and there's much higher usage of prescription medication in the over 65 age group. And in just the same way that this cohort was growing faster than the population overall over the last 20 years – because of the higher birth rate in the late 60s and 70s – in future, the aging of these GenX-ers will drive outsized growth in the number of people aged over 75, who consume much less alcohol. And so, the result is a disproportionate impact on overall alcohol consumption. And on top of this, there's increased adoption of GLP-1 weight loss drugs that we've talked about previously. And increasingly negative perceptions of the health implications of alcohol – as the broader health and wellness trend takes hold. On the flip side, there's also a growing acceptance of non-alcoholic beverages, driven by better products and broader distribution. We expect low- and zero-alcohol alternatives to gain a larger share of the market as a result. And we think beer looks particularly well-positioned; it already accounts for about 85 per cent of the non-alcoholic market overall. And this year in the U.S., non-alcoholic beer has nearly doubled its share of U.S. beer retail sales, compared to where it was in 2021. Now it's still small, but the growth rate in the well over 20 per cent range, suggests that share gain will continue. Meanwhile, we're seeing more mocktails on menus and zero-alcohol beer on draft in pubs. All of this is further contributing to less stigma associated with not drinking alcohol. And all these trends add up to one conclusion, we think: earnings pressures on alcohol makers are not simply cyclical but structural. They have been underway even prior to COVID. And looking to the future, we think they're here to stay. So now, many more people can say cheers to that. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen to podcasts. And tell your friends about us too.

Two-time Emmy and Three-time NAACP Image Award-winning, television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed T. Dallas Smith. He began his commercial real estate career in 1982 at Atlanta Air Center Realty under the guidance of Thomas W. Tift, Jr. as leasing and management representative for the portfolio. In 1989, he became the first African American broker at Cushman & Wakefield of Georgia. His affiliation with the company opened doors for many minority brokers. In 1995, he pioneered the brokerage division for H.J. Russell & Company, an African-American-owned construction and management firm, where he served as VP of the Brokerage Division. In 2006, with the blessing of the late Herman J. Russell, Dallas opened T. Dallas Smith & Company (TDS&Co), specializing in tenant representation. Now, he leads the firm’s branding and strategy efforts, which includes creating and overseeing all new business verticals within TDS&Co that align with the company’s core business. Dallas is a proud Atlanta native who prioritizes industry exposure and active community engagement in his day-to-day life and as part of the company's culture. Company Description *T. Dallas Smith & Company (TDS&Co) is the country's largest African American-owned pure tenant rep commercial real estate firm. For more than 17 years, TDS&Co has taken pride in catering to the needs of clients requiring office space, industrial space, and land. As an exclusive tenant and buyer representation firm, TDS&Co eliminates any conflict of interest when negotiating leases and/or purchases for clients. Based in Atlanta, GA, the TDS&Co team has more than 150 years of combined commercial real estate experience and has collectively worked on assignments in over 40 states exceeding $16 billion in aggregate value throughout their careers. The TDS&Co team has served in leadership roles at some of the largest, most reputable real estate services companies in the country including Cushman & Wakefield, JLL, CBRE, Newmark, Physicians Realty Trust, H.J. Russell & Company, Equitable Real Estate, Lend Lease Real Estate, Morgan Stanley, Colliers International and Bank of America. The TDS&Co team has also represented the commercial real estate interests of some of the most notable corporations in the country, including but not limited to, Airbnb, ALSAC/St. Jude, AT&T, The Athlete’s Foot, The Coca-Cola Company, FedEx, IBM, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, Truist and Veritext. #BEST #STRAW #SHMSSupport the show: https://www.steveharveyfm.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Two-time Emmy and Three-time NAACP Image Award-winning, television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed T. Dallas Smith. He began his commercial real estate career in 1982 at Atlanta Air Center Realty under the guidance of Thomas W. Tift, Jr. as leasing and management representative for the portfolio. In 1989, he became the first African American broker at Cushman & Wakefield of Georgia. His affiliation with the company opened doors for many minority brokers. In 1995, he pioneered the brokerage division for H.J. Russell & Company, an African-American-owned construction and management firm, where he served as VP of the Brokerage Division. In 2006, with the blessing of the late Herman J. Russell, Dallas opened T. Dallas Smith & Company (TDS&Co), specializing in tenant representation. Now, he leads the firm’s branding and strategy efforts, which includes creating and overseeing all new business verticals within TDS&Co that align with the company’s core business. Dallas is a proud Atlanta native who prioritizes industry exposure and active community engagement in his day-to-day life and as part of the company's culture. Company Description *T. Dallas Smith & Company (TDS&Co) is the country's largest African American-owned pure tenant rep commercial real estate firm. For more than 17 years, TDS&Co has taken pride in catering to the needs of clients requiring office space, industrial space, and land. As an exclusive tenant and buyer representation firm, TDS&Co eliminates any conflict of interest when negotiating leases and/or purchases for clients. Based in Atlanta, GA, the TDS&Co team has more than 150 years of combined commercial real estate experience and has collectively worked on assignments in over 40 states exceeding $16 billion in aggregate value throughout their careers. The TDS&Co team has served in leadership roles at some of the largest, most reputable real estate services companies in the country including Cushman & Wakefield, JLL, CBRE, Newmark, Physicians Realty Trust, H.J. Russell & Company, Equitable Real Estate, Lend Lease Real Estate, Morgan Stanley, Colliers International and Bank of America. The TDS&Co team has also represented the commercial real estate interests of some of the most notable corporations in the country, including but not limited to, Airbnb, ALSAC/St. Jude, AT&T, The Athlete’s Foot, The Coca-Cola Company, FedEx, IBM, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, Truist and Veritext. #BEST #STRAW #SHMSSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses the market's shifting perception of risk and what's behind some unusual patterns in fund flows among asset classes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. No investment recommendation is made with respect to any of the ETFs or mutual funds referenced herein. Investors should not rely on the information included in making investment decisions with respect to those funds. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist. Today I want to look at how investors are playing defense amid elevated macro uncertainty.It's Tuesday, April 22, at 10am in New York.So, the last three weeks have brought intense volatility to global markets, and investors have had to reexamine their relationship with risk. Typically, in times like these, mutual fund and ETF flows from stocks into bonds serve as a clear gauge of investor defensiveness. But this pattern hasn't really been informative this time around.Instead, flows to gold – rather than bonds – have been the clearest evidence of flight-to-quality most recently. Between April 3rd and 11th almost US$5 billion went into gold ETFs globally, one of the strongest seven-day net flow stretches ever. There's been US$22 billion of net inflows to gold ETFs with assets under management totaling about US$250 billion year-to-date. Of the 10 days of the highest net inflows to gold ETFs over the last 20 years, three occurred in the last month.Cash also benefited from the dash to defensives, with over US$100bn flowing into money market funds year-to-date. And we expect that reallocating to cash will be a theme for the rest of the year for many reasons. For one, our U.S. economists expect no Fed cuts in 2025 and back-loaded cuts in 2026 following a projected surge in core PCE inflation from tariffs. This means that money market fund yields should stay higher for longer. And with investors seeing the wild gyrations in safe government bonds in recent weeks, money market funds' low volatility offer a strong risk/reward argument over holding Treasuries. For another, let's say our economists' base case is incorrect, and we do get steep cuts from the Fed sooner rather than later. That probably means we're on the brink of a recession; and in that situation, cash is king.You know what's been particularly surprising in the middle of this recent flight to quality? Outflows from high-grade US fixed income. These outflows are notable because U.S. Treasuries, Agency mortgages, and investment grade credit are usually seen as low-beta and defensives. But U.S. high-grade bonds saw net outflows of approximately US$1.4bn during the week of April 7th. These are the largest outflows since the pandemic; and we think that this trend can continue.So we need to ask ourselves if this is the end of American exceptionalism. And are we seeing a rotation from U.S. assets into rest-of-the-world?The answer may surprise you, but despite the outflows in U.S. bonds, there hasn't really been a persistent rotation out of U.S. risk assets and into rest-of-world markets. At least not a lot of evidence in the data yet. U.S. equity investors still have a strong home bias, and we've seen continued net buying from Japanese and euro area investors of foreign equities – at least some of which are U.S. equities. We think investors should stay defensive amid the current uncertainty. But figuring out what's actually defensive has been challenging. This recent turmoil in the global markets suggests that the investors' shifting idea of what's risky is a risk in itself. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Two-time Emmy and Three-time NAACP Image Award-winning, television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed T. Dallas Smith. He began his commercial real estate career in 1982 at Atlanta Air Center Realty under the guidance of Thomas W. Tift, Jr. as leasing and management representative for the portfolio. In 1989, he became the first African American broker at Cushman & Wakefield of Georgia. His affiliation with the company opened doors for many minority brokers. In 1995, he pioneered the brokerage division for H.J. Russell & Company, an African-American-owned construction and management firm, where he served as VP of the Brokerage Division. In 2006, with the blessing of the late Herman J. Russell, Dallas opened T. Dallas Smith & Company (TDS&Co), specializing in tenant representation. Now, he leads the firm’s branding and strategy efforts, which includes creating and overseeing all new business verticals within TDS&Co that align with the company’s core business. Dallas is a proud Atlanta native who prioritizes industry exposure and active community engagement in his day-to-day life and as part of the company's culture. Company Description *T. Dallas Smith & Company (TDS&Co) is the country's largest African American-owned pure tenant rep commercial real estate firm. For more than 17 years, TDS&Co has taken pride in catering to the needs of clients requiring office space, industrial space, and land. As an exclusive tenant and buyer representation firm, TDS&Co eliminates any conflict of interest when negotiating leases and/or purchases for clients. Based in Atlanta, GA, the TDS&Co team has more than 150 years of combined commercial real estate experience and has collectively worked on assignments in over 40 states exceeding $16 billion in aggregate value throughout their careers. The TDS&Co team has served in leadership roles at some of the largest, most reputable real estate services companies in the country including Cushman & Wakefield, JLL, CBRE, Newmark, Physicians Realty Trust, H.J. Russell & Company, Equitable Real Estate, Lend Lease Real Estate, Morgan Stanley, Colliers International and Bank of America. The TDS&Co team has also represented the commercial real estate interests of some of the most notable corporations in the country, including but not limited to, Airbnb, ALSAC/St. Jude, AT&T, The Athlete’s Foot, The Coca-Cola Company, FedEx, IBM, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, Truist and Veritext. #BEST #STRAW #SHMSSteve Harvey Morning Show Online: http://www.steveharveyfm.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Can the U.S. equity market break out of its expected range? Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson looks at whether the Trump administration's shifting tariff policy and Fed uncertainty will continue weighing down stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today, I will discuss what it will take for the US equity market to break out of the 5000-5500 range. It's Monday, April 21st at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.Last week, we focused on our view that the S&P 500 was likely to remain in a 5000-5500 range in the near term given the constraints on both the upside and the downside. First, on the upside, we think it will be challenging for the index to break through prior support of 5500 given the recent acceleration lower in earnings revisions, uncertainty on how tariff negotiations will progress and the notion that the Fed appears to be on hold until it has more clarity on the inflationary and growth impacts of tariffs and other factors. At the same time, we also believe the equity market has been contemplating all of these challenges for much longer than the consensus acknowledges. Nowhere is this evidence clearer than in the ratio of Cyclical versus Defensive stocks as discussed on this podcast many times. In fact, the ratio peaked a year ago and is now down more than 40 per cent.Coming into the year, we had a more skeptical view on growth than the consensus for the first half due to expectations that appeared too rosy in the context of policy sequencing that was likely to be mostly growth negative to start. Things like immigration enforcement, DOGE, and tariffs. Based on our industry analysts' forecasts, we were also expecting AI Capex growth to decelerate, particularly in the first half of the year when growth rate comparisons are most challenging. Recall the Deep Seek announcement in January that further heightened investor concerns on this factor. And given the importance of AI Capex to the overall growth expectations of the economy, this dynamic remains a major consideration for investors. A key point of today's episode is that just as many were overly optimistic on growth coming into the year, they may be getting too pessimistic now, especially at the stock level. As the breakdown in cyclical stocks indicate, this correction is well advanced both in price and time, having started nearly a year ago. Now, with the S&P 500 closing last week very close to the middle of our range, the index appears to be struggling with the uncertainty of how this will all play out.Equities trade in the future as they try to discount what will be happening in six months, not today. Predicting the future path is very difficult in any environment and that is arguably more difficult today than usual, which explains the high volatility in equity prices. The good news is that stocks have discounted quite a bit of slowing at this point. It's worth remembering the factors that many were optimistic about four-to-give months ago—things like de-regulation, lower interest rates, AI productivity and a more efficient government—are still on the table as potential future positive catalysts. And markets have a way of discounting them before it's obvious.However, there is also a greater risk of a recession now, which is a different kind of slowdown that has not been fully priced at the index level, in our view. So as long as that risk remains elevated, we need to remain balanced with our short-term views even if we believe the odds of a positive outcome for growth and equities are more likely than consensus does over the intermediate term. Hence, we will continue to range trade.Further clouding the picture is the fact that companies face more uncertainty than they have since the early days of the pandemic. As a result, earnings revisions breadth is now at levels rarely witnessed and approaching downside extremes assuming we avoid a recession. Keep in mind that these revisions peaked almost a year ago, well before the S&P 500 topped, further supporting our view that this correction is much more advanced than acknowledged by the consensus. This is why we are now more interested in looking at stocks and sectors that may have already discounted a mild recession even if the broader index has not. Bottom line, if a recession is averted, markets likely made their lows two weeks ago. If not, the S&P 500 will likely take those lows out. There are other factors that could take us below 4800 in a bear case outcome, too. For example, the Fed decides to raise rates due to tariff-driven inflation; or the term premium blows out, taking 10-year Treasury yields above 5 per cent without any growth improvement.Nevertheless, we think recession probability is the wildcard now that markets are wrestling with. In S&P terms, we think 5000-5500 is the appropriate range until this risk is either confirmed or refuted by the hard data – with labor being the most important. In the meantime, stay up the quality curve with your equity portfolio.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Dana Cornell is a Forbes-recognized financial advisor and former executive director at Morgan Stanley, where he managed $1.4 billion in assets. Dissatisfied with the traditional wealth management model, Dana left to found Cornell Capital Holdings, where he now advises another billion dollars and specializes in helping business owners with exit planning and wealth creation. Dana's unique perspective comes from both building and buying businesses, and he's passionate about showing others how to use business acquisitions as a powerful path to financial freedom. On this episode we talk about: Why Dana left Wall Street to build his own wealth management firm The biggest misconceptions about buying small businesses How to identify a business that's the right size for acquisition Creative financing strategies to buy businesses with little or no money down Why income streams and asset classes matter more than stocks and bonds for real wealth How to scale a business and prepare for a profitable exit Top 3 Takeaways Buying a business that's already cash-flowing and has systems in place is often less risky and more profitable than starting from scratch or buying too small. Creative financing—like SBA loans, seller financing, or partnering with investors—can allow you to acquire businesses with little or no money out of pocket. True wealth comes from diversifying income streams and owning assets that generate passive income, not just from traditional stock and bond portfolios. Connect with Dana Cornell: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danacornell https://www.cornellcapitalholdings.com/ SHOW SPONSOR: Check out FranBridge Consulting for premier non-food franchise opportunities: travischappell.com/franbridge Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our analysts Michael Zezas and Erik Woodring discuss the ways tariffs are rewiring the tech hardware industry and how companies can mitigate the impact of the new U.S. trade policy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Public Policy Research.Erik Woodring: And I'm Erik Woodring, Head of the U.S. IT Hardware team.Michael Zezas: Today, we continue our tariff coverage with a closer look at the impact on tech hardware. Products such as your smartphone, computers, and other personal devices.It's Thursday, April 17th at 10am in New York.President Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcements, followed by a 90 day pause and exemptions have created a lot of turmoil in the tech hardware space. People started panic buying smartphones, worried about rising costs, only to find out that smartphones may or may not be exempted.As I pointed out on this podcast before, these tariffs are also significantly accelerating the transition to a multipolar world. This process was already well underway before President Trump's second term, but it's gathering steam as trade pressures escalate. Which is why I wanted to talk to you, Erik, given your expertise.In the multipolar world, IT hardware has followed a China+1 strategy. What is the strategy, and does it help mitigate the impact from tariffs?Erik Woodring: Historically, most IT hardware products have been manufactured in China. Starting in 2018, during the first Trump administration, there was an effort by my universe to diversify production outside of China to countries friendly with China – including Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and Thailand. This has ultimately helped to protect from some tariffs, but this does not make really any of these countries immune from tariffs given what was announced on April 2nd.Michael Zezas: And what do the current tariffs – recognizing, of course, that they could change – what do those current tariffs mean for device costs and the underlying stocks that you cover?Erik Woodring: In short, device costs are going up, and as it relates to my stocks, there's plenty of uncertainty. If I maybe dig one level deeper, when the first round of tariffs were announced on April 2nd, the cumulative cost that my companies were facing from tariffs was over $50 billion. The weighted average tariff rate was about 25 per cent. Today, after some incremental announcements and some exemptions, the ultimate cumulative tariff cost that my universe faces is about $7 billion. That is equivalent to an average tariff rate of about 7 per cent. And what that means is that device costs on average will go up about 5 per cent.Of course, there are some that won't be raised at all. There are some device costs that might go up by 20 to 30 per cent. But ultimately, we do expect prices to go up and as a result, that creates a lot of uncertainties with IT hardware stocks.Michael Zezas: Okay, so let's make this real for our listeners. Suppose they're buying a new device, a smartphone, or maybe a new laptop. How would these new tariffs affect the consumer price?Erik Woodring: Sure. Let's use the example of a smartphone. $1000 smartphone typically will be imported for a cost of maybe $500. In this current tariff regime, that would mean cost would go up about $50. So, $1000 smartphone would be $1,050.You could use the same equivalent for a laptop; and then on the enterprise side, you could use the equivalent of a server, an AI server, or storage – much more expensive. Meaning while the percentage increase in the cost will be the same, the ultimate dollar expense will go up significantly more.Michael Zezas: And so, what are some of the mitigation strategies that companies might be able to use to lessen the impact of tariffs?Erik Woodring: If we start in the short term, there's two primary mitigation strategies. One is pulling forward inventory and imports ahead of the tariff deadline to ultimately mitigate those tariff costs. The second one would be to share in the cost of these tariffs with your suppliers. For IT hardware, there's hundreds of suppliers and ultimately billions of dollars of incremental tariff costs can be somewhat shared amongst these hundreds of companies.Longer term, there are a few other mitigation strategies. First moving your production out of China or out of even some of these China+1 countries to more favorable tariff locations, perhaps such as Mexico. Many products which come from Mexico in my universe are exempted because of the USMCA compliance. So that is a kind of a medium-term strategy that my companies can use.Ultimately, the medium-term strategy that's going to be most popular is raising prices, as we talked about. But some of my companies will also leverage affordability tools to make the cost ultimately borne out over a longer period of time. Meaning today, if you buy a smartphone over two-year of an installment plan, they could extend this installment plan to three years. That means that your monthly cost will go down by 33 per cent, even if the price of your smartphone is rising.And then longer term, ultimately, the mitigation tool will be whether you decide to go and follow the process of onshoring. Or if you decide to continue to follow China+1 or nearshoring, but to a greater extent.Michael Zezas: Right. So, then what about onshoring – that is moving production capacity to the U.S.? Is this a realistic scenario for IT hardware companies?Erik Woodring: In reality, no. There is some small volume production of IT hardware projects that is done in the United States. But the majority of the IT hardware ecosystem outside of the United States has been done for a specific reason. And that is for decades, my companies have leveraged skilled workers, skilled in tooling expertise. And that has developed over time, that is extremely important. Tech CEOs have said that the reason hardware production has been concentrated in China is not about the cost of labor in the country, but instead about the number of skilled workers and the proximity of those skilled workers in one location. There's also the benefit of having a number of companies that can aggregate tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of workers, in a specific factory space. That just makes it much more difficult to do in the United States. So, the headwinds to onshoring would be just the cost of building facilities in the United States. It would be finding the skilled labor. It would be finding resources available for building these facilities. It would also be the decision whether to use skilled labor or humanoids or robots.Longer term, I think the decision most of my companies will have to face is the cost and time of moving your supply chain, which will take longer than three years versus, you know, the current presidential term, which will last another, call it three and a half years.Michael Zezas: Okay. And so how does all of this impact demand for tech hardware, and what's your outlook for the industry in the second half of this year?Erik Woodring: There's two impacts that we're seeing right now. In some cases, more mission critical products are being pulled forward, meaning companies or consumers are going and buying their latest and greatest device because they're concerned about a future pricing increase.The other impact is going to be generally lower demand. What we're most concerned about is that a pull forward in the second quarter ultimately leads to weaker demand in the second half – because generally speaking, uncertainty, whether that's policy or macro more broadly, leads to more concerns with hardware spending and ultimately a lower level of spending. So any 2Q pull forward could mean an even weaker second half of the year.Michael Zezas: Alright, Erik, thanks for taking the time to talk.Erik Woodring: Great. Thanks for speaking, Mike.Michael Zezas: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Netflix on the move after beating expectations in its quarterly results. What we're hearing on the company conference call, and how Netflix is faring in the streaming wars. Plus, Trump turning up the heat on the Fed. We break down what the Powell pressure means for markets, and get fresh insights from Morgan Stanley's Katerina Simonetti. All that, and the big moves in pharma and healthcare as Eli Lilly and UnitedHealth head in very different directions. Fast Money Disclaimer

The ever-evolving nature of the U.S. administration's trade policy has triggered market uncertainty, impacting corporate and consumer confidence. But our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why he believes this volatility could present a silver lining for credit investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about how high uncertainty can be a risk for credit, and also an opportunity.It's Wednesday, April 16th at 9am in New York.Markets year-to-date have been dominated by questions of U.S. trade policy. At the center of this debate is a puzzle: What, exactly, the goal of this policy is?Currently, there are two competing theories of what the U.S. administration is trying to achieve. In one, aggressive tariffs are a negotiating tactic, an aggressive opening move designed to be bargained down into something much, much lower for an ultimate deal.And in the other interpretation, aggressive tariffs are a new industrial policy. Large tariffs, for a long period of time, are necessary to encourage manufacturers to relocate operations to the U.S. over the long term.Both of these theories are plausible. Both have been discussed by senior U.S. administration officials. But they are also mutually exclusive. They can't both prevail.The uncertainty of which of these camps wins out is not new. Market strength back in early February could be linked to optimism that tariffs would be more of that first negotiating tool. Weakness in March and April was linked to signs that they would be more permanent. And the more recent bounce, including an almost 10 percent one-day rally last week, were linked to hopes that the pendulum was once again swinging back.This back and forth is uncertain. But in some sense, it gives investors a rubric: signs of more aggressive tariffs would be more challenging to the market, signs of more flexibility more positive. But is it that simple? Do signs of a more lasting tariff pause solve the story?The important question, we think, is whether all of that back and forth has done lasting damage to corporate and consumer confidence. Even if all of the tariffs were paused, would companies and consumers believe it? Would they be willing to invest and spend over the coming quarters at similar levels to before – given all of the recent volatility?This question is more than hypothetical. Across a wide range of surveys, the so-called soft data, U.S. corporate and consumer confidence has plunged. Merger activity has slowed sharply. We expect intense investor focus on these measures of confidence over the coming months.For credit, lower confidence is a doubled edged sword. To some extent, it is good, keeping companies more conservative and better able to service their debt. But if it weakens the overall economy – and historically, weaker confidence surveys like we've seen recently have indicated much weaker growth in the future; that's a risk. With overall spread levels about average, we do not see valuations as clearly attractive enough to be outright positive, yet.But maybe there is one silver lining. Long term Investment grade corporate debt now yields over 6 percent. As corporate confidence has soured, and these yields have risen, we think companies will find it unattractive to lock in high costs for long-term borrowing. Fewer bonds for sale, and attractive all-in yields for investors could help this part of the market outperform, in our view.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

As gold prices reach new all-time highs, Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist Amy Gower discusses whether the rally is sustainable.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley's Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist. Today I'm going to talk about the steady rise we've had in gold prices in recent months and whether or not this rally can continue. It's Tuesday, April 15th, at 2pm in London.So gold breached $3000/oz for the first time ever on 17th of March this year, and has continued to rise since then; but we would argue it still has room to run. First of all, let's look back at how we got here. So, gold already rallied 25 percent in 2024, which was driven largely by strong central bank demand as well as the start of the US Fed rate cutting cycle, and strong demand for bars and coins as geopolitical risk remained elevated. And arguably, these trends have continued in 2025, with gold up another 22 percent, and now rising tariff uncertainty also contributing. This comes in two ways – first, demand for gold as a safe haven asset against this current macro uncertainty. And second as an inflation hedge. Gold has historically been viewed by investors as a hedge against the impact of inflation. So, with the U.S. tariffs raising inflation risks, gold is seeing additional demand here too. But, of course, the question is: can this gold rally keep going? We think the answer is yes, but would caveat that in big market moves -- like the ones we have seen in recent weeks -- gold can also initially fall alongside other asset classes, as it is often used to provide liquidity. But this is often short-lived and already gold has been rebounding. We would expect this to continue with the price of gold to rise further to around $3500/oz by the third quarter of this year. There are three key drivers behind this projection: First, we see still strong physical demand for gold, both from central banks and from the return of exchange-traded funds or ETFs. Central banks saw what looks like a structural shift in their gold purchases in 2022, which has continued now for three consecutive years. And ETF inflows are returning after four years of outflows, adding a significant amount year-to-date, but still well below their 2020 highs, suggesting there's arguably much more room to go here. Second, macro drivers are also contributing to this gold price outlook. A falling U.S. dollar is usually a tailwind for commodities in general, as it makes them cheaper for non-dollar holders; while a stagflation scenario, where growth expectations are skewed down and inflation risks are skewed up, would also be a set-up where gold would perform well. And third, continued demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising inflation and growth risks is also likely to keep that bar and coin segment well supported. And what would be the bullish risks to this gold outlook? Well, as prices rise, you tend to start ask questions about demand destruction. And this is no different for gold, particularly in the jewelry segment where consumers would go with usually a budget in mind, rather than a quantity of gold. And so demand can be quite price sensitive. Annual jewelry demand is roughly twice the size of that central bank buying and we already saw this fall around 11 percent year-on-year in 2024. So, we would expect a bit of weakness here. But offset by the other factors that I mentioned. So, all in all, a combination of physical buying, macro factors and uncertainty should be driving safe haven demand for gold, keeping prices on a rising trajectory from here. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.