Podcasts about Morgan Stanley

Jim Hill and Eric Hersey trace the ambitious — and ultimately ill-fated — vision for Universal's Dark Universe, from the scrapped sequel to The Mummy to Tom Cruise's push to reinvent himself as the studio's modern Van Helsing. NEWS Universal courts talent and headlines by hiring Mark Platt and director Lorene Scafaria for a Sabrina Carpenter–led Alice in Wonderland musical. Comcast explores a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs advising. Competing interest from Netflix and Apple raises the stakes ahead of WBD's planned corporate split. Peacock sets a new premiere date for The Epic Ride documentary, now featuring rare dragon-drone testing footage from Epic Universe. A closer look at how the industry shake-ups could affect theme park rights, licensing, and future Universal IP development. FEATURE The original plan for a direct sequel to 2017's The Mummy — and how the story would have expanded Dr. Jekyll's organization and the gods-and-monsters mythology. Why Tom Cruise's version of Nick Morton was conceived as the entry point to a larger shared universe… and how internal plans positioned him as the modern Van Helsing, monster hunter and connective tissue between films. How Cruise's hands-on creative control — the same instinct that later led Top Gun: Maverick to a $1.4B box office — clashed with Universal's rollout of the Dark Universe brand. A breakdown of what actually killed the Dark Universe: mismatched expectations, a premature cinematic universe announcement, and a marketing campaign Cruise felt undermined the film he delivered. Why Epic Universe's Dark Universe land succeeds where the films didn't — channeling classic-monster storytelling without the burden of a forced franchise blueprint. HOSTS Jim Hill — X/Twitter: @JimHillMedia | Instagram: @JimHillMedia | Website: jimhillmedia.comEric Hersey — X/Twitter: @erichersey | Instagram: @erichersey | Website: erichersey.com PATREON Love the show? Support more insider stories, deep dives, and history of themed entertainment at:https://www.patreon.com/jimhillmedia/ FOLLOW US Facebook: @JimHillMediaNews YouTube: @jimhillmedia TikTok: @jimhillmedia PRODUCTION Edited by Dave Grey Produced by Eric Hersey — Strong Minded Agency SPONSOR Unlocked Magic — Save up to 12% on Universal Orlando and Walt Disney World tickets, including discounts on after-hours events like Mickey's Very Merry Christmas Party and Jollywood Nights. Start planning at UnlockedMagic.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, highlights what investors need to watch out for ahead of next year's U.S. congressional elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, we're tackling a question that's top of mind after last week's off-cycle elections in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and California: What could next year's midterm elections mean for investors, especially if Democrats take control of Congress?It's Friday, Nov 14th at 10:30am in New York.In last week's elections, Democrats outperformed expectations. In California, a new redistricting measure could flip several house seats; and in New Jersey and Virginia Democrat candidates, won with meaningfully higher margins than polls suggested was likely. As such prediction markets now give Democrats a roughly 70 percent chance of winning the House next year.But before we jump to conclusions, let's pump the brakes. It might not be too early to think about the midterms as a market catalyst. We'll be doing plenty of that. But we think it's too early to strategize around it. Why? First, a lot can change—both in terms of likely outcomes and the issues driving the electorate. While Democrats are favored today, redistricting, turnout, and evolving voter concerns could reshape the landscape in the months to come. Second, even if Democrats take control of the House, it may not change the trajectory of the policies that matter most to market pricing. In our view, Republicans already achieved their main legislative goals through the tax and fiscal bill earlier this year. The other market-moving policy shifts this year—think tariffs and regulatory changes—have come through executive action, not legislation. The administration has leaned heavily on executive powers to set trade policy, including the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and to push regulatory changes. Future potential moves investors are watching, like additional regulation or targeted stimulus, would likely come the same way. Meanwhile, the plausible Republican legislative agenda—like further tax cuts—would face steep hurdles. Any majority would be slim, and fiscal hawks in the party nearly blocked the last round of cuts due to concerns over spending offsets. Moderates, for their part, are unlikely to tolerate deeper cuts, especially after the contentious debate over Medicaid in the OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). So, what could change this view? If we're wrong, it's likely because the economy slows and tips into recession, making fiscal stimulus more politically appealing—consistent with historical patterns. Or, Democrats could win so decisively on economic and affordability issues that the White House considers standalone stimulus measures, like reducing some tariffs. How does this all connect to markets? For U.S. equities, the current policy mix—industrial incentives, tax cuts, and AI-driven capex—has supported risk assets and driven opportunities in sectors like technology and manufacturing. But it also means that, looking deeper into next year, if growth disappoints, fiscal concerns could emerge as a risk factor challenging the market. There doesn't appear an obvious political setup to shift policies to deal with elevated U.S. deficits, meaning the burden is on better growth to deal with this issue. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We'll keep you updated as the story unfolds.

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product. Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology. We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments. It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona. After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme. Adam Wood: It's fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges? Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum. Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that what we've seen is – if we look at the revenues of some of the companies, you know, and huge investments going in there. And investors can clearly see the benefit of GenAI. And so investors are right to ask the question, well, where's the revenue for these businesses? You know, where are we seeing it in info services or in IT services, or in enterprise software. And the reality is today, you know, we're not seeing it. And it's hard for analysts to point to evidence that – well, no, here's the revenue base, here's the benefit that's coming through. And so, investors naturally flip to, well, if there's no benefit, then surely, we should focus on the risk. So, I think we totally understand, you know, why people are focused on the negative side of things today. I think there are differences between the sub-sectors. I mean, I think if we look, you know, at IT services, first of all, from an investor point of view, I think that's been pretty well placed in the losers' buckets and people are most concerned about that sub-sector… Paul Walsh: Something you and the global team have written a lot about. Adam Wood: Yeah, we've written about, you know, the risk of disruption in that space, the need for those companies to invest, and then the challenges they face. But I mean, if we just keep it very, very simplistic. If Gen AI is a technology that, you know, displaces labor to any extent – companies that have played labor arbitrage and provide labor for the last 20 - 25 years, you know, they're going to have to make changes to their business model. So, I think that's understandable. And they're going to have to demonstrate how they can change and invest and produce a business model that addresses those concerns. I'd probably put info services in the middle. But the challenge in that space is you have real identifiable companies that have emerged, that have a revenue base and that are challenging a subset of the products of those businesses. So again, it's perfectly understandable that investors would worry. In that context, it's not a potential threat on the horizon. It's a real threat that exists today against certainly their businesses. I think software is probably the most interesting. I'd put it in the kind of final bucket where I actually believe… Well, I think first of all, we certainly wouldn't take the view that there's no risk of disruption and things aren't going to change. Clearly that is going to be the case. I think what we'd want to do though is we'd want to continue to use frameworks that we've used historically to think about how software companies differentiate themselves, what the barriers to entry are. We don't think we need to throw all of those things away just because we have GenAI, this new set of capabilities. And I think investors will come back most easily to that space. Paul Walsh: Emett, you talked a little bit there before about the fact that you haven't seen a huge amount of progress or additional insight from the telco space around AI; how AI is diffusing across the space. Do you get any discussions around disruption as it relates to telco space? Emmet Kelly: Very, very little. I think the biggest threat that telcos do see is – it is from the hyperscalers. So, if I look at and separate the B2C market out from the B2B, the telcos are still extremely dominant in the B2C space, clearly. But on the B2B space, the hyperscalers have come in on the cloud side, and if you look at their market share, they're very, very dominant in cloud – certainly from a wholesale perspective. So, if you look at the cloud market shares of the big three hyperscalers in Europe, this number is courtesy of my colleague George Webb. He said it's roughly 85 percent; that's how much they have of the cloud space today. The telcos, what they're doing is they're actually reselling the hyperscale service under the telco brand name. But we don't see much really in terms of the pure kind of AI disruption, but there are concerns definitely within the telco space that the hyperscalers might try and move from the B2B space into the B2C space at some stage. And whether it's through virtual networks, cloudified networks, to try and get into the B2C space that way. Paul Walsh: Understood. And Lee maybe less about disruption, but certainly adoption, some insights from your side around adoption across the tech hardware space? Lee Simpson: Sure. I think, you know, it's always seen that are enabling the AI move, but, but there is adoption inside semis companies as well, and I think I'd point to design flow. So, if you look at the design guys, they're embracing the agentic system thing really quickly and they're putting forward this capability of an agent engineer, so like a digital engineer. And it – I guess we've got to get this right. It is going to enable a faster time to market for the design flow on a chip. So, if you have that design flow time, that time to market. So, you're creating double the value there for the client. Do you share that 50-50 with them? So, the challenge is going to be exactly as Adam was saying, how do you monetize this stuff? So, this is kind of the struggle that we're seeing in adoption. Paul Walsh: And Emmett, let's move to you on data centers. I mean, there are just some incredible numbers that we've seen emerging, as it relates to the hyperscaler investment that we're seeing in building out the infrastructure. I know data centers is something that you have focused tremendously on in your research, bringing our global perspectives together. Obviously, Europe sits within that. And there is a market here in Europe that might be more challenged. But I'm interested to understand how you're thinking about framing the whole data center story? Implications for Europe. Do European companies feed off some of that U.S. hyperscaler CapEx? How should we be thinking about that through the European lens? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. So, big question, Paul. What… Paul Walsh: We've got a few minutes! Emmet Kelly: We've got a few minutes. What I would say is there was a great paper that came out from Harvard just two weeks ago, and they were looking at the scale of data center investments in the United States. And clearly the U.S. economy is ticking along very, very nicely at the moment. But this Harvard paper concluded that if you take out data center investments, U.S. economic growth today is actually zero. Paul Walsh: Wow. Emmet Kelly: That is how big the data center investments are. And what we've said in our research very clearly is if you want to build a megawatt of data center capacity that's going to cost you roughly $35 million today. Let's put that number out there. 35 million. Roughly, I'd say 25… Well, 20 to 25 million of that goes into the chips. But what's really interesting is the other remaining $10 million per megawatt, and I like to call that the picks and shovels of data centers; and I'm very convinced there is no bubble in that area whatsoever.So, what's in that area? Firstly, the first building block of a data center is finding a powered land bank. And this is a big thing that private equity is doing at the moment. So, find some real estate that's close to a mass population that's got a good fiber connection. Probably needs a little bit of water, but most importantly needs some power. And the demand for that is still infinite at the moment. Then beyond that, you've got the construction angle and there's a very big shortage of labor today to build the shells of these data centers. Then the third layer is the likes of capital goods, and there are serious supply bottlenecks there as well.And I could go on and on, but roughly that first $10 million, there's no bubble there. I'm very, very sure of that. Paul Walsh: And we conducted some extensive survey work recently as part of your analysis into the global data center market. You've sort of touched on a few of the gating factors that the industry has to contend with. That survey work was done on the operators and the supply chain, as it relates to data center build out. What were the key conclusions from that? Emmet Kelly: Well, the key conclusion was there is a shortage of power for these data centers, and… Paul Walsh: Which I think… Which is a sort of known-known, to some extent. Emmet Kelly: it is a known-known, but it's not just about the availability of power, it's the availability of green power. And it's also the price of power is a very big factor as well because energy is roughly 40 to 45 percent of the operating cost of running a data center. So, it's very, very important. And of course, that's another area where Europe doesn't screen very well.I was looking at statistics just last week on the countries that have got the highest power prices in the world. And unsurprisingly, it came out as UK, Ireland, Germany, and that's three of our big five data center markets. But when I looked at our data center stats at the beginning of the year, to put a bit of context into where we are…Paul Walsh: In Europe… Emmet Kelly: In Europe versus the rest. So, at the end of [20]24, the U.S. data center market had 35 gigawatts of data center capacity. But that grew last year at a clip of 30 percent. China had a data center bank of roughly 22 gigawatts, but that had grown at a rate of just 10 percent. And that was because of the chip issue. And then Europe has capacity, or had capacity at the end of last year, roughly 7 to 8 gigawatts, and that had grown at a rate of 10 percent. Now, the reason for that is because the three big data center markets in Europe are called FLAP-D. So, it's Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin. We had to put an acronym on it. So, Flap-D. Good news. I'm sitting with the tech guys. They've got even more acronyms than I do, in their sector, so well done them. Lee Simpson: Nothing beats FLAP-D. Paul Walsh: Yes. Emmet Kelly: It's quite an achievement. But what is interesting is three of the big five markets in Europe are constrained. So, Frankfurt, post the Ukraine conflict. Ireland, because in Ireland, an incredible statistic is data centers are using 25 percent of the Irish power grid. Compared to a global average of 3 percent.Now I'm from Dublin, and data centers are running into conflict with industry, with housing estates. Data centers are using 45 percent of the Dublin grid, 45. So, there's a moratorium in building data centers there. And then Amsterdam has the classic semi moratorium space because it's a small country with a very high population. So, three of our five markets are constrained in Europe. What is interesting is it started with the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The UK has made great strides at attracting data center money and AI capital into the UK and the current Prime Minister continues to do that. So, the UK has definitely gone; moved from the middle lane into the fast lane. And then Macron in France. He hosted an AI summit back in February and he attracted over a 100 billion euros of AI and data center commitments. Paul Walsh: And I think if we added up, as per the research that we published a few months ago, Europe's announced over 350 billion euros, in proposed investments around AI. Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. It's a good stat. Now where people can get a little bit cynical is they can say a couple of things. Firstly, it's now over a year since the Mario Draghi report came out. And what's changed since? Absolutely nothing, unfortunately. And secondly, when I look at powering AI, I like to compare Europe to what's happening in the United States. I mean, the U.S. is giving access to nuclear power to AI. It started with the three Mile Island… Paul Walsh: Yeah. The nuclear renaissance is… Emmet Kelly: Nuclear Renaissance is absolutely huge. Now, what's underappreciated is actually Europe has got a massive nuclear power bank. It's right up there. But unfortunately, we're decommissioning some of our nuclear power around Europe, so we're going the wrong way from that perspective. Whereas President Trump is opening up the nuclear power to AI tech companies and data centers. Then over in the States we also have gas and turbines. That's a very, very big growth area and we're not quite on top of that here in Europe. So, looking at this year, I have a feeling that the Americans will probably increase their data center capacity somewhere between – it's incredible – somewhere between 35 and 50 percent. And I think in Europe we're probably looking at something like 10 percent again. Paul Walsh: Okay. Understood. Emmet Kelly: So, we're growing in Europe, but we're way, way behind as a starting point. And it feels like the others are pulling away. The other big change I'd highlight is the Chinese are really going to accelerate their data center growth this year as well. They've got their act together and you'll see them heading probably towards 30 gigs of capacity by the end of next year. Paul Walsh: Alright, we're out of time. The TMT Edge is alive and kicking in Europe. I want to thank Emmett, Lee and Adam for their time and I just want to wish everybody a great day today. Thank you.(Applause) That was my conversation with Adam, Emmett and Lee. Many thanks again to them. Many thanks again to them for telling us about the latest in their areas of research and to the live audience for hearing us out. And a thanks to you as well for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by living us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discuss artificial intelligence in Europe, and how the region could enable the Agentic AI wave.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European head of research product. We are bringing you a special episode today live from Morgan Stanley's, 25th European TMT Conference, currently underway. The central theme we're focused on: Can Europe keep up from a technology development perspective?It's Wednesday, November the 12th at 8:00 AM in Barcelona. Earlier this morning I was live on stage with my colleagues, Adam Wood, Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology Hardware. The larger context of our conversation was tech diffusion, one of our four key themes that we've identified at Morgan Stanley Research for 2025. For the panel, we wanted to focus further on agentic AI in Europe, AI disruption as well as adoption, and data centers. We started off with my question to Adam. I asked him to frame our conversation around how Europe is enabling the Agentic AI wave. Adam Wood: I mean, I think obviously the debate around GenAI, and particularly enterprise software, my space has changed quite a lot over the last three to four months. Maybe it's good if we do go back a little bit to the period before that – when everything was more positive in the world. And I think it is important to think about, you know, why we were excited, before we started to debate the outcomes. And the reason we were excited was we've obviously done a lot of work with enterprise software to automate business processes. That's what; that's ultimately what software is about. It's about automating and standardizing business processes. They can be done more efficiently and more repeatably. We'd done work in the past on RPA vendors who tried to take the automation further. And we were getting numbers that, you know, 30 – 40 percent of enterprise processes have been automated in this way. But I think the feeling was it was still the minority. And the reason for that was it was quite difficult with traditional coding techniques to go a lot further. You know, if you take the call center as a classic example, it's very difficult to code what every response is going to be to human interaction with a call center worker. It's practically impossible. And so, you know, what we did for a long time was more – where we got into those situations where it was difficult to code every outcome, we'd leave it with labor. And we'd do the labor arbitrage often, where we'd move from onshore workers to offshore workers, but we'd still leave it as a relatively manual process with human intervention in it. I think the really exciting thing about GenAI is it completely transforms that equation because if the computers can understand natural human language, again to our call center example, we can train the models on every call center interaction. And then first of all, we can help the call center worker predict what the responses are going to be to incoming queries. And then maybe over time we can even automate that role. I think it goes a lot further than, you know, call center workers. We can go into finance where a lot of work is still either manual data re-entry or a remediation of errors. And again, we can automate a lot more of those tasks. That's obviously where, where SAP's involved. But basically what I'm trying to say is if we expand massively the capabilities of what software can automate, surely that has to be good for the software sector that has to expand the addressable markets of what software companies are going to be able to do. Now we can have a secondary debate around: Is it going to be the incumbents, is it going to be corporates that do more themselves? Is it going to be new entrants that that benefit from this? But I think it's very hard to argue that if you expand dramatically the capabilities of what software can do, you don't get a benefit from that in the sector. Now we're a little bit more consumer today in terms of spending, and the enterprises are lagging a little bit. But I think for us, that's just a question of timing. And we think we'll see that come through.I'll leave it there. But I think there's lots of opportunities in software. We're probably yet to see them come through in numbers, but that shouldn't mean we get, you know, kind of, we don't think they're going to happen. Paul Walsh: Yeah. We're going to talk separately about AI disruption as we go through this morning's discussion. But what's the pushback you get, Adam, to this notion of, you know, the addressable market expanding? Adam Wood: It's one of a number of things. It's that… And we get onto the kind of the multiple bear cases that come up on enterprise software. It would be some combination of, well, if coding becomes dramatically cheaper and we can set up, you know, user interfaces on the fly in the morning, that can query data sets; and we can access those data sets almost in an automated way. Well, maybe companies just do this themselves and we move from a world where we've been outsourcing software to third party software vendors; we do more of it in-house. That would be one. The other one would be the barriers to entry of software have just come down dramatically. It's so much easier to write the code, to build a software company and to get out into the market. That it's going to be new entrants that challenge the incumbents. And that will just bring price pressure on the whole market and bring… So, although what we automate gets bigger, the price we charge to do it comes down. The third one would be the seat-based pricing issue that a lot of software vendors to date have expressed the value they deliver to customers through. How many seats of the software you have in house. Well, if we take out 10 – 20 percent of your HR department because we make them 10, 20, 30 percent more efficient. Does that mean we pay the software vendor 10, 20, 30 percent less? And so again, we're delivering more value, we're automating more and making companies more efficient. But the value doesn't accrue to the software vendors. It's some combination of those themes I think that people would worry about. Paul Walsh: And Lee, let's bring you into the conversation here as well, because around this theme of enabling the agentic AI way, we sort of identified three main enabler sectors. Obviously, Adam's with the software side. Cap goods being the other one that we mentioned in the work that we've done. But obviously semis is also an important piece of this puzzle. Walk us through your thoughts, please. Lee Simpson: Sure. I think from a sort of a hardware perspective, and really we're talking about semiconductors here and possibly even just the equipment guys, specifically – when seeing things through a European lens. It's been a bonanza. We've seen quite a big build out obviously for GPUs. We've seen incredible new server architectures going into the cloud. And now we're at the point where we're changing things a little bit. Does the power architecture need to be changed? Does the nature of the compute need to change? And with that, the development and the supply needs to move with that as well. So, we're now seeing the mantle being picked up by the AI guys at the very leading edge of logic. So, someone has to put the equipment in the ground, and the equipment guys are being leaned into. And you're starting to see that change in the order book now. Now, I labor this point largely because, you know, we'd been seen as laggards frankly in the last couple of years. It'd been a U.S. story, a GPU heavy story. But I think for us now we're starting to see a flipping of that and it's like, hold on, these are beneficiaries. And I really think it's 'cause that bow wave has changed in logic. Paul Walsh: And Lee, you talked there in your opening remarks about the extent to which obviously the focus has been predominantly on the U.S. ways to play, which is totally understandable for global investors. And obviously this has been an extraordinary year of ups and downs as it relates to the tech space. What's your sense in terms of what you are getting back from clients? Is the focus shifts may be from some of those U.S. ways to play to Europe? Are you sensing that shift taking place? How are clients interacting with you as it relates to the focus between the opportunities in the U.S. and Asia, frankly, versus Europe? Lee Simpson: Yeah. I mean, Europe's coming more into debate. It's more; people are willing to talk to some of the players. We've got other players in the analog space playing into that as well. But I think for me, if we take a step back and keep this at the global level, there's a huge debate now around what is the size of build out that we need for AI? What is the nature of the compute? What is the power pool? What is the power budgets going to look like in data centers? And Emmet will talk to that as well. So, all of that… Some of that argument's coming now and centering on Europe. How do they play into this? But for me, most of what we're finding people debate about – is a 20-25 gigawatt year feasible for [20]27? Is a 30-35 gigawatt for [20]28 feasible? And so, I think that's the debate line at this point – not so much as Europe in the debate. It's more what is that global pool going to look like? Paul Walsh: Yeah. This whole infrastructure rollout's got significant implications for your coverage universe… Lee Simpson: It does. Yeah. Paul Walsh: Emmet, it may be a bit tangential for the telco space, but was there anything you wanted to add there as it relates to this sort of agentic wave piece from a telco's perspective? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, there's a consensus view out there that telcos are not really that tuned into the AI wave at the moment – just from a stock market perspective. I think it's fair to say some telcos have been a source of funds for AI and we've seen that in a stock market context, especially in the U.S. telco space, versus U.S. tech over the last three to six months, has been a source of funds. So, there are a lot of question marks about the telco exposure to AI. And I think the telcos have kind of struggled to put their case forward about how they can benefit from AI. They talked 18 months ago about using chatbots. They talked about smart networks, et cetera, but they haven't really advanced their case since then. And we don't see telcos involved much in the data center space. And that's understandable because investing in data centers, as we've written, is extremely expensive. So, if I rewind the clock two years ago, a good size data center was 1 megawatt in size. And a year ago, that number was somewhere about 50 to 100 megawatts in size. And today a big data center is a gigawatt. Now if you want to roll out a 100 megawatt data center, which is a decent sized data center, but it's not huge – that will cost roughly 3 billion euros to roll out. So, telcos, they've yet to really prove that they've got much positive exposure to AI. Paul Walsh: That was an edited excerpt from my conversation with Adam, Emmet and Lee. Many thanks to them for taking the time out for that discussion and the live audience for hearing us out.We will have a concluding episode tomorrow where we dig into tech disruption and data center investments. So please do come back for that very topical conversation. As always, thanks for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by leaving us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague to tune in today.

I'm going to say something that might sound crazy: I spend less than an hour a week on one platform, and it drives over 20,000 visitors to my business every single month. No dancing. No trending audio. No desperate posting three times a day hoping someone sees it. While everyone else is exhausted trying to outsmart the algorithm, I've been quietly winning with a platform where the algorithm actually works with you, not against you. In this episode, we're talking about the platform that outlasted the algorithm, and why Pinterest is still the smartest move you're not making!  Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/how-to-get-traffic-from-pinterest  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.

TO BUY SILVER & GOLD, contact Andy's firm at info@milesfranklin.comThe precious metals appear to have recovered from their recent pullback as gold futures vaulted over $4,200/oz today while silver futures surpassed $53/oz.So, is the precious metals rally back on?I asked this question to Andy Schectman in today's livestream. He think it very well may be.We discuss this plus a host of other PM-related topics. To hear it all, click here or on the video below.FYI: if you're looking to purchase bullion online, Thoughtful Money recommends Miles Franklin, co-founded, owned and operated by Andy. The firm has been in operation since 1989, and is a full-service precious metals broker with a mission to educate the masses on the benefits & principles of sound money and deliver fair pricing.Given the important of the partnership between Thoughtful Money and his firm, Andy himself has offered to give Thoughtful Money followers the “white glove” treatment. So if you're interested in learning more about their services, email them directly at info@milesfranklin.com and Andy or one of his lieutenants will give you personal attention, answer all your questions and work to get you the products that best meets your needs at the best possible price.#goldprice #silver #preciousmetals 00:00:00 — Is the rally back on? — initial take00:02:53 — How the price was knocked down (overnight dump, low liquidity)00:03:38 — Who bought the dip (Bank of America, Morgan Stanley)00:08:35 — Concern: inventory squeeze — intro to supply question00:09:56 — Tether and stablecoin buying of gold explained00:11:19 — Retail premiums and US Mint supply issues00:13:53 — Thesis: revaluing gold to devalue the dollar and reshore manufacturing00:18:01 — Kystan USD stablecoin backed by gold — broader trend00:20:22 — Tether at mining summit / disintermediation of miners00:23:14 — Silver as a strategic battleground (industrials vs investors vs states)00:24:32 — Silver added to US critical minerals list — implications00:26:04 — Primary silver production challenges; byproduct supply issues00:28:13 — Will silver become an heirloom metal again?00:38:44 — Shanghai futures, Russia, Hong Kong vaults — repo facility theory00:46:04 — Institutional positioning: $96M GLD call block (December bets)00:52:16 — User questions: selling bullion — process overview01:00:16 — Shipping & insurance details (USPS vs FedEx; insurance limits)01:06:24 — Confiscation risk discussion — likelihood and institutional focus_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

On today's podcast:1) The US House of Representatives will be back at work Wednesday for the first time in 53 days to vote on a bill that would end the longest government shutdown record. The legislation would relieve the sharpest pain points, including delayed SNAP benefits, air travel chaos and government worker furloughs. But it won’t address the main trigger for the shutdown: the expiration of Obamacare premium subsidies that prompted Democrats to block a government funding bill in the first place. The small group of centrist Democrats who broke ranks with their party to end the shutdown won a promise from Senate Majority Leader John Thune that he’ll allow a vote on extending the subsidies - but no guarantees are in place. While some moderate Senate Republicans want to see the subsidies extended with conditions, like an income cap or minimum monthly payment, leading GOP voices on health-care policy are starting to pitch on alternative plans.2) President Trump will host financial industry executives for dinner Wednesday at the White House, according to two officials familiar with the plans, the latest effort by the administration to bring the country’s business elite behind his policies. JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon is among the attendees, one of the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to detail the president’s plans. Nasdaq’s Adena Friedman was also among the chief executive officers invited, along with Goldman Sachs Group’s David Solomon, BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick, according to people briefed on the event. The dinner comes as Trump faces rising political pressure on the economy and affordability — issues that anchored Democratic electoral wins in New Jersey and Virginia last week.3) Advanced Micro Devices - Nvidia's closest rival in AI chips - predicts accelerating sales growth over the next five years, driven by strong demand for its data center products. Annual revenue growth will average more than 35% over the next three to five years, Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su said Tuesday at a company event in New York. AMD’s AI data center revenue will increase by an average of 80% over the same period, she said. The stock rallied in extended trading Tuesday after executives also said adjusted profit will reach more than $20 a share and operating margin will exceed 35% in that time frame. AMD updated investors on its long-term outlook amid increasing concern that the massive spending on new computer systems for artificial intelligence work can’t continue at the current elevated levels.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Research and Investment Management analysts Michael Cyprys and Denny Galindo discuss how and why cryptocurrencies are transitioning from niche speculation to portfolio staples. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Cyprys: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges for Morgan Stanley Research.Denny Galindo: And I'm Denny Galindo, Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.Michael Cyprys: Today we break down the forces making crypto more accessible and what this shift means for investors everywhere.It's Tuesday, November 11th at 10am in New York.We've seen cryptocurrencies move from the fringes of finance to being considered a legitimate part of mainstream asset allocation. Financial platforms, especially those serving institutional clients, are starting to integrate crypto more than ever.Denny, you've written extensively about the crypto market for some time now among your many jobs here at Morgan Stanley. So, from your perspective in wealth management, what are you hearing from retail clients about their growing interest in crypto?Denny Galindo: Yeah, we actually started writing about crypto back in 2017. We had our first explainer deck, and we started writing extensive educational reports in 2021. So, we've covered it for a while.Advisors who dabble in crypto typically had this one client. He asked a lot of questions about when they could do more. We also had some clients who were curious, maybe their neighbor made a lot of money, bought a new boat and they were like wondering, you know, what is this Bitcoin thing?Now, this year we've seen a sea change. I think it was the election really started it; the Genius Act, and some of the legislation also kind of added to it. Almost all this interest is really on Bitcoin only, although we also have gotten a decent amount of interest about stablecoins and how those might impact things. But it's really just the beginning and I think it's an area that's; it's not going to go away.Mike, on the institutional side, what trends are you seeing among asset managers and brokers in terms of crypto adoption integration?Michael Cyprys: So, we've seen a big move into the ETF space as large money managers make crypto easier to access for both retail and institutional investors. Now this comes on the back of the SEC approving the first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs back in 2024. And since then, we've seen firms from BlackRock to Fidelity, Franklin, Invesco, and many others, including crypto native firms having launched spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs. And these steps in the minds of many investors have legitimized crypto as an investible asset class.Most recently, we've seen the SEC adopt generic ETF listing standards for crypto ETFs that can make it easier to accelerate ETF launches in reduced regulatory frictions. And today the crypto ETF space is about $200 billion of assets under management and saw inflows of over [$]40 billion last year, over [$]45 billion so far this year – despite some of the near-term volatility. And most of the asset class today is in Bitcoin, single token ETFs, with BlackRock and Fidelity managing the largest ETFs in the space.Speaking of products, what types of crypto are retail investors most curious about? And why do those particular ones make sense for their portfolios?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head. The most popular products are really the Bitcoin products. We as a firm allowed solicitation in Bitcoin ETPs more than a year ago in brokerage accounts. We just expanded them to allow them in Advisory in October. So, we're still early days here. There really hasn't been that much interest in the other crypto products.Now when people think about this, there's three buckets here. There are some people that think of it like digital gold. And they're worried about inflation. They're worried about government deficits. And that's kind of the angle that they're approaching crypto from. A second group think of it like a venture capital, like a disruptive innovation in tech that's going after this big addressable market. And, you know, hopefully the penetration will rise in the future. And then the third bucket is really thinking [of it] out it as a diversifier. So, they're saying, ‘Hey, this thing is volatile. It doesn't match stocks, bonds, other assets. And so, I kind of want to use it for diversification.'Now, Mike, when you have these discussions with institutional clients, how do they view the risk and potential of these different cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: What's interesting with the crypto space is adoption started on the retail side with institutions now slowly beginning to explore allocations. And that's the opposite of what we've seen historically with institutions leaning in ahead of retail in areas, whether it's commodities or private markets. But it's still early days.On the institutional side, we're starting to see some pensions, endowments, foundations begin to make some small allocations to Bitcoin as a long-term inflation hedge. But keep in mind, institutions tend to make investments in the context of strategic asset allocations, often with a broader macro framework.Denny, you've written quite a bit about the four-year crypto cycle. Could you explain what that is and where you think we are in the current crypto cycle?Denny Galindo: Yeah, if you look at the data, you see a pretty clear trend of a four-year cycle. So, there's three up years and one down year, and it's been like clockwork, since Bitcoin was invented.Now when you see something like that, you always try to explain like: why is this happening? So, there's two kind of dominant explanations that we've seen. So, one's macro, one's micro. Now the macro version for crypto is really the M2 cycle. So, we see that M2 to that global M2 money supply has kind of accelerated and decelerated in four-year cycles, and Bitcoin tends to really match that cycle. It tends to accelerate when M2's accelerating and it tends to decline when it's decelerating or declining.But there's also this bottoms-up way of looking at it, and commodities are really the place we go to for that analysis. So, a lot of commodities, you know, could be coffee, could be oil – if something disrupts supply, you tend to get the shortage, you get the price moving up.Then you get commodity speculators piling in, adding leverage. And it'll just kind of go parabolic. At some point something pops the bubble, usually more supply, and then you get like a great depression. You get like an 80 percent draw down. All the leverage comes out and the whole thing crashes. So crypto has also followed that.Now, we break the four-year cycle into four seasons: spring, summer, fall, and winter. And each season has a different characteristic about which parts of the market work, which don't work, what things look like. We are in the fall season right now. And that tends to last about a year. We wrote a note last year on this. Fall is the time for harvest. So, it's the time you want to take your gains.But the debate is, you know, how long will this fall last? When will the next winter start? Or maybe this pattern won't even hold in the future. And so, this is the big debate in the crypto circles these days.And Mike, given the volatility, given the great depressions we talked about in Bitcoin with these, you know, 70-80 percent drawdowns, how do you see it fitting into institutional portfolios compared to other cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: Compared to other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is still viewed as the flagship asset within the crypto space – just given higher adoption, greater liquidity, the sheer market value. It has longer history and better regulatory clarity as compared to other tokens. But given the volatility as you mentioned, and the early days nature of cryptocurrencies, adoption is still quite nascent amongst institutional investors.Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or macro hedge against inflation and monetary debasement. It's also sometimes viewed as a low correlation diversifier within multi-asset portfolios. But even that's also been a debate in the marketplace too.As we look forward from here, crypto adoption within institutional portfolios could potentially expand as regulatory clarity establishes a clear framework for digital assets, right? We had the Genius Act recently that focused on stablecoins. Next up is market structure. There's a bill working its way through Congress.We've also had developments on the ETF side that lower[s] barriers for institutions to gain exposure there. Not only is it more accessible within traditional portfolios, but the ETF fits nicely into day-to-day workflow.So, bottom line is institutional views on Bitcoin and crypto are evolving, and how firms view Bitcoin – we think will depend upon the institution's objectives, their risk tolerance and portfolio context. And keep in mind that institutional allocations don't turn on a dime. They tend to be slower moving.Denny, do retail clients take a similar approach or are they more likely to take bigger bets?Denny Galindo: Our clients struggle with this question. And so, we get a lot of questions like, ‘Okay, I don't want to miss this. I'm a little nervous about it. What allocation should I use here?' And so, we go back to our three, kind of, typical investors when we try to answer this question. We really try and help people figure out where is equal weight.So, we wrote a note in February called “Are you Underweight Bitcoin?” And we have three different answers depending on how you're thinking of it. And, you know, there's a big debate. There's no clear answer. And that's not really where we want our clients. We want them to be smaller where they can have some exposure if they want it. Not everyone wants it, but if you do want it, you can have it. And it won't really dominate the volatility of the portfolio.Now, on another note, Mike, are you seeing legacy platforms start to offer crypto as well?Michael Cyprys: So crypto ETFs are generally available in self-directed brokerage accounts across the industry today. Schwab, for example, commented that their customers hold $25 billion in crypto ETFs, which is about, call it 20 percent share of the ETF space. But access to these crypto ETFs is a bit more restricted within the Advisor-led channel. But we're starting to see that broaden out for ETFs and eventually might see model portfolios with allocations toward crypto ETFs.But when you look at spot crypto trading, though, that generally remains out of reach of most legacy platforms. The key hurdle for that has been regulatory clarity and with a more crypto friendly administration that is changing here.So, Schwab, for example, acknowledged that they have the regulatory clarity needed and they're working towards launching their spot crypto trading platform in the first half of next year.On that topic, Denny, how do you view the merits of holding crypto directly versus through an exchange-traded product like ETFs?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I mean, our clients are mostly not day trading this product and kind of moving it back and forth.So, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer for them. The one issue is liquidity. And so, we're not used to thinking of this in; the U.S. equity markets are the most liquid markets. But in crypto, the crypto markets, the spot markets are actually more liquid than the equity markets.So, you get a lot of liquidity even after hours, even 24x7. And as other markets around the world kind of take the lead. But most of our investors aren't treating it that way. They're not day trading it, and they're really keeping it more like that digital gold allocation. And so, they just need to adjust the position size, you know, once a month, once a year maybe; just kind of buy and hold.But I wonder, you know, as more people get more comfortable, it could become more important in the future. So, it's an open question, but for now, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer here.Michael Cyprys: Fascinating space. Denny, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Denny Galindo: It was great speaking with you, Mike.Michael Cyprys: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

If you've ever stared at your email list wondering why it's not growing or if you're not even sure where to start, this coaching session is going to light a fire under you. Then, sign up for my FREE class: From Zero Subscribers to an Email List of Engaged Buyers at http://growanemaillist.com!  Shilpi Zalani is a high-performance coach who helps women break through limiting beliefs, get financially independent, and finally create a business that actually fits their lives. She has started, scaled, and exited multiple six-figure ventures, generating over $1M in revenue across her businesses. And she's done it all while navigating motherhood, cultural expectations, and the highs and lows of entrepreneurship… making her uniquely qualified to guide other women toward that same freedom. In today's coaching session, we're diving into one of the most valuable assets in business: your email list. We're talking about how to grow it when you don't have a big audience, how to create lead magnets that convert, and most importantly, how to actually sell without feeling pushy or salesy. If you've been spinning your wheels chasing the algorithm and you're craving a system that works behind the scenes to grow your business, this episode is for you. And hey, if you're ready to grow your list, serve your audience, and maximize your impact without feeling like you're stuck on the content hamster wheel, sign up for my FREE class at http://growanemaillist.com!  Not only will I teach you how to start and grow your email list, I'll pull back the curtain on the metrics that show off email's superpowers when compared to social media. Save your seat now: http://growanemaillist.com  Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/email-marketing-for-consistent-sales  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson unpacks why stocks are likely to stay resilient despite uncertainties related to Fed rates, government shutdown and tariffs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns for equities and how that may be changing. It's Monday, November 10th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.We're right in the middle of earnings season. Under the surface, there may appear to be high dispersion. But we're actually seeing positive developments for a broadening in growth. Specifically, the median stock is seeing its best earnings growth in four years. And the S&P 500 revenue beat rate is running 2 times its historical average. These are clear signs that the earning recovery is broadening and that pricing power is firming to offset tariffs. We're also watching out for other predictors of soft spots. And over the past week, the seasonal weakness in earnings revision breath appears to be over. For reference, this measure troughed at 6 percent on October 21st, and is now at 11 percent. The improvement is being led by Software, Transports, Energy, Autos and Healthcare. Despite this improvement in earnings revisions, the overall market traded heavy last week on the back of two other risks. The first risk relates to the Fed's less dovish bias at October's FOMC meeting. The Fed suggested they are not on a preset course to cut rates again in December. So, it's not a coincidence the U.S. equity market topped on the day of this meeting. Meanwhile investors are also keeping an eye on the growth data during the third quarter. If it's stronger than anticipated, it could mean there's less dovish action from the Fed than the market expects or needs for high prices.I have been highlighting a less dovish Fed as a risk for stocks. But it's important to point out that the labor market is also showing increasing signs of weakness. Part of this is directly related to the government shutdown. But the private labor data clearly illustrates a jobs market that's slowing beyond just government jobs. This is creating some tension in the markets – that the Fed will be late to cut rates, which increases the risk the recovery since April falls flat. In my view, labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to "run it hot" means that ultimately the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. But, without official jobs data confirming this trend, the Fed is moving slower than the equity market may like. The other risk the market has been focused on is the government shutdown itself. And there appears to be two main channels through which these variables are affecting stock prices. The first is tighter liquidity as reflected in the recent decline in bank reserves. The government shutdown has resulted in fewer disbursements to government employees and other programs. Once the government shutdown ends which appears imminent, these payments will resume, which translates into an easing of liquidity.The second impact of the shutdown is weaker consumer spending due to a large number of workers furloughed and benefits, like SNAP, halted. As a result, Consumer Discretionary company earnings revisions have rolled over. The good news is that the shutdown may be coming to an end and alleviate these market concerns. Finally, tariffs are facing an upcoming Supreme Court decision. There were questions last week on how affected stocks were reacting to this development. Overall, we saw fairly muted relative price reactions from the stocks that would be most affected. We think this relates to a couple of variables. First, the Trump administration could leverage a number of other authorities to replace the existing tariffs. Second, even in a scenario where the Supreme Court overturns tariffs, refunds are likely to take a significant amount of time, potentially well into 2026.So what does all of this all mean? Weak earnings seasonality is coming to an end along with the government shutdown. Both of these factors should lead to some relief in what have been softer equity markets more recently. But we expect volatility to persist until the Fed fully commits to the run it hot strategy of the administration. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Akshat Vaidya – Managing Partner & Co-Founder, MaelstromAkshat Vaidya is the Managing Partner and Co-Founder of Maelstrom, the family office founded by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. In this role, Akshat leads Maelstrom's investment strategy across its multiple verticals, including venture investments, liquid markets, and private equity deals. He oversees the recently launched Maelstrom Equity Fund I (a US$250 million fund) which focuses on acquiring mid-sized, profitable companies in the crypto-infrastructure space.Akshat's journey into digital assets began over a decade ago. He first started buying Bitcoin in 2013 while still working in traditional finance. Before co-founding Maelstrom, he served as Head of Corporate Development and M&A at BitMEX, where he led the exchange's expansion through acquisitions and strategic partnerships. Earlier in his career, Akshat was an investor at Granite Creek Capital Partners, executing leveraged buyouts and growth investments in U.S. middle-market companies. He holds a Bachelor's in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, combining a classic finance education with a forward-looking tech perspective.Under Akshat's leadership, Maelstrom has grown from a two-person family office into a multi-strategy investment platform. The firm now operates across venture capital, liquidity provisioning, and private equity initiatives. Akshat remains a champion of long-term value creation in a market often driven by hype and short cycles. He strives to bridge traditional financial rigor with digital-asset innovation, ensuring Maelstrom's portfolio is built on strong fundamentals and sustainable growth. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/akshatvaidya/Adam Schlegel – Partner & Head of Private Equity, MaelstromAdam Schlegel is a Partner at Maelstrom, where he leads the firm's private equity strategy and heads its debut buyout vehicle, Maelstrom Equity Fund I. With over a decade of experience in traditional private equity and cross-border transactions, Adam brings institutional discipline to the evolving crypto-infrastructure space. He joined Maelstrom to expand its reach into buyouts of established crypto-industry companies, applying proven investment frameworks to this emerging sector.In his previous roles, Adam built a strong foundation in global finance. He was an Investor at Haveli Investments – the Austin-based private equity firm founded by Brian Sheth (co-founder of Vista Equity Partners) – focusing on enterprise SaaS buyouts and growth-equity deals. Prior to Haveli, he served as an Associate at Baring Private Equity Asia, executing large cross-border transactions across the Asia-Pacific region. Adam began his career as an Investment Banking Analyst in Morgan Stanley's Global Energy Group, where he gained experience in capital markets and corporate finance. He holds a Master of Arts in International Finance from Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science (with a minor in Chinese) from Swarthmore College.At Maelstrom, Adam is driving the firm's expansion into private equity by identifying and acquiring crypto-infrastructure and data analytics companies that meet specific criteria. Adam's approach blends traditional buyout expertise with a deep understanding of how digital assets, stablecoins, and decentralized finance are transforming financial infrastructure worldwide. By applying classic private equity frameworks (e.g. rigorous due diligence, operational improvements, and long-term value creation plans) to crypto-enabled businesses, he aims to bridge the gap between conventional finance and the crypto economy. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-schlegel-2b5247b/

Mr. Phillips served as Counselor to the Secretary at the U.S. Treasury from January 2017 to January 2019. Under Secretary Mnuchin, he focused on financial institution and capital markets policy, fiscal operations, government asset and liability management and general economic policy. He led the development for policy under the Core Principles established by Executive Order 13772. He supported Secretary Mnuchin in the development of policy for comprehensive housing finance reform and in oversight of Treasury's investment in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Between 2008 and 2017, Mr. Phillips was a Managing Director of BlackRock where he founded and led the Financial Markets Advisory Group, a global risk consulting group that leveraged the strengths of BlackRock's Aladdin risk platform. Mr. Phillips is a pioneer in the securitized products industry. He led numerous innovations in residential mortgage, asset-backed and commercial real estate securitization markets. From 1994 to 2006 he was a Managing Director of Morgan Stanley and led its global Securitized Product Group. Mr. Phillips serves on the Board of Directors of Ripple, a leading financial technology company that has developed a real-time gross settlement system powered by blockchain ledger that is revolutionizing the speed and efficiency of cross-border payments.

Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach discuss potential next steps for the FOMC and the risks to their views from the U.S. government shutdown. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: The October FOMC meeting delivered a quarter percent rate cut as widely expected – but things are more complicated, and policy is not on a preset path from here.It's Friday, November 7th at 10am in New York.So, Mike, the Fed did cut by 25 basis points in October, but it was not a unanimous decision. And the Federal Open Market Committee decided to end the reduction of its balance sheet on December 1st – earlier than we expected. How did things unfold and does this change your outlook in any way?Michael Gapen: Yeah, Matt, it was a surprise to me. Not so much the statement or the decision, but there were dissents. There was a dissent in favor of a 50-basis point cut. There was a dissent in favor of no cut. And that foreshadowed the press conference – where really the conversation was about, I think, a divided committee; and a committee that didn't have a lot of consensus on what would come next.The balance sheet discussion, which we can get into, it came a little sooner than we thought, but it was largely in line with our view. And I'm not sure it's a macro critical decision right now. But I do think it was a surprise to markets and it was certainly a surprise to me – how much Powell's tone shifted between September and October, in terms of what the market could expect from the Fed going forward.So, what he said in essence, the key points, you know. The policy's not on a preset path from here. Or [a] cut in December is maybe not decidedly part of the baseline; or certainly is not a foregone conclusion. And I think what that reflects is a couple of things.One is that they're recalibrating policy based on a risk management view. So, you can cut almost independent of the data, at least in the beginning. And so now I think Powell's saying, ‘Well, at least from here, future cuts are probably more data dependent than those initial cuts.' But second, and I think most importantly is the division that appeared within the Fed. I think there's one group that's hawkish, one group that's dovish, and I think it reflects the division and the tension that we have in the economic data.So, I think the hawkish crowd is looking at strong activity data, strong AI spending, an upper income consumer that seems to be doing just fine. And they're saying, ‘Why are we cutting? Financial conditions for the business community is pretty easy. Maybe the neutral rate of interest is higher. We're probably less restrictive than you think.' And then I think the other side of the committee, which I believe still that Chair Powell is in, is looking at a market slowdown in hiring a weak labor market. What that means for growth in real income for those households that depend on labor market income to consume; there's probably some front running of autos that artificially boosted growth in the third quarter.So, I think that the dissents, or I should say the division within the FOMC, I think reflects the tension in the underlying data. So, to know which way monetary policy evolves, Matt, it's essentially trying to decide: does the labor market rebound towards the activity data or does the activity data decelerate at least temporarily to the labor market?Matthew Hornbach: Mike, you talked a lot about data just now, and we're not exactly getting a lot of government data at the moment. How are you thinking about the path for the data in terms of its availability between now and the December FOMC meeting? And how do you think that may affect the Fed's willingness to move forward with another rate cut in the cycle?Michael Gapen: Right. So that's key and critical to understanding, right? We're operating under the assumption, of course the federal government shutdowns going to end at some point. We're going to get all this back data released and we can assess where the economy is or has been. I think the way markets should think about this is if the government shutdown has ended in the next few weeks, say before Thanksgiving – then I think we, markets, the Fed will have the bulk of the data in front of them and available to assess the economy at the December FOMC meeting.They may not have it all, but they should get at least some of that data released. We can assess it. If the economy has moderated and weakened a bit, the labor market has continued to cool, the Fed can cut. If it shows maybe the labor market rebounding downside risk to employment being diminished, maybe the Fed doesn't cut.So that's a world and it is our expectation the shutdown should end in the next few weeks. We're already at the longest shutdown on record, so we will get some data in hand to make the decision for December. Perhaps that's wishful thinking, Matt, and maybe we go beyond Thanksgiving, and the shutdown extends into December.My suspicion though, is if the government is still shut down in December, I can't imagine the economy's getting better. So, I think the Fed could lean in the direction of taking one more step.Matthew Hornbach: This is going to be very critical for how the markets think about the outlook in 2026 and price the outlook for 2026. The last FOMC meeting of the year has that type of importance for markets – pricing, the path of Fed policy, and the path of the economy into 2026. Because if we end up receiving a rate cut from the Fed, the dialogue in the investment community will be focused on when might the next cut arrive. Versus if we don't get that rate cut in December, the dialogue will focus on, maybe we will never see another rate cut in the cycle. And what if we see a rate hike as we make our way through the second half of 2026? So that can have a dramatic impact on the U.S. Treasury market and how investors think about the outlook for policy and the economy.Michael Gapen: So, I think that's right. And as you know, our baseline outlook is at least through the first quarter, if not into the second quarter. The private sector will still be attempting to pass through tariffs into prices. And I think in the meantime, demand for labor and the hiring rate will remain low.And so, we look for additional labor market slack to build. Not a lot, but the unemployment rate moving to more like 4.6, maybe 4.7 – and that underpins our expectation the Fed will be reducing rates in in 2026. But I think as you note, and as I mentioned earlier, there is this tension in the data and it's not inconceivable that the labor market accelerates. And you get, kind of, an animal spirits driven 2026; where a combination of momentum in the data, AI-related business spending, wealth effects for upper income consumers and maybe a larger fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, lead the economy to outperform.And to your point, if that is happening, it's not farfetched to think, well, if the Fed put in risk management insurance cuts, perhaps they need to take those out. And that could build in a way where that expectation, let's say towards the second half or the fourth quarter maybe of 2026, maybe it takes into 2027. But I agree with you that if the Fed can't cut in December because the economy's doing well and the data show that, and we learn more of that in 2026, you're right.So, it would… And may maybe to put it more simply, the more the Fed cuts, the more you need to open both sides of the rate path distribution, right? The deeper they cut, the greater the probability over time, they're going to have to raise those rates. And so, if the Fed is forced to stop in December, yeah, you can make that argument.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed, a lot of the factors that you mentioned are factors that are coming up in investor conversations increasingly. The way I've been framing it in my discussions is that investors want to see the glass as half full today, versus in the middle of this year the glass was looking half empty. And of course, as we head into the holiday season, the glass will be filled with something perhaps a bit tastier than water. And so…Michael Gapen: Fill my glass please.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed. So, I do think that we could be setting up for a bright 2026 ahead. And so, with that, Mike, look forward to seeing you again in December – with a glass of eggnog perhaps. And a decision in hand for the meeting that the Fed holds then. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Earlier this week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard a case challenging the current administration's tariff policy. Our Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Research explains the potential magnitude of the case's outcome for markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, we discuss the challenge against tariffs at the Supreme Court and how it might affect markets.It's Thursday, Nov 6th at 11am in New York.This week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments about the legality of most of the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration. Investors are paying close attention because if the Supreme rules against the administration, it could undo much of the four-five times tariff increase that's taken place in the U.S. this year. That would seem to set up this hearing, and a subsequent ruling which could come as early as this month, as a clear market catalyst. But, like many policy issues affecting the economic and markets outlook, the reality is more complicated. Here's what you need to know.First, there's ample debate among experts about how the court will rule. That may seem surprising given the court's makeup. Three of the nine judges were appointed by President Trump, and six of the nine by Republican Presidents. But it's not clear they'll agree that the President used his executive power in a way consistent with the law that granted the executive branch this particular power. That law is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. And, without getting into too much detail, the law appears to have been designed to deal with economic crises and foreign adversaries, which the court might argue is not evident when considering tariffs levied against traditional allies.But, the next important point is that a ruling against the Trump administration might not actually change much around U.S. tariff levels. How is that possible? It's because the administration has other executive tariff powers it can deploy if needed, and ones that are arguably more durable. For example, Section 301 gives a President wide latitude to designate a trading partner as undertaking unfair trade practices. So this authority could be swapped in for IEEPA. That could take time, as Section 301 requires a study to be submitted, but there are other temporary authorities that could bridge the gap. So the U.S. can likely ensure continuity of current tariff levels if it wants – keeping tariffs more of a constant than a variable in our outlook.Of course, we have to consider ways we could be wrong. For example, the administration could use a ruling against it to re-focus instead on product specific tariffs through Section 232. That likely would result in U.S. effective tariff rates drifting a bit lower, alleviating some of the pressure our economists see on the consumer and corporate importers, adding more support to risk assets. But that scenario might come with some volatility along the way if the administration feels the need to float larger product specific tariff levels before settling on more palatable levels – similar to what happened in April.So bottom line, there's more tariff policy noise to navigate this year. It could bring some market volatility, and maybe even a bit of upside, but the most likely outcome is that we circle back to the approximate levels we are today. Setting up for 2026, that means other debates – like how companies respond to tariffs and capital spending incentives – are probably more important to the outlook than the level of tariffs themselves. We're digging in on all that and will keep you in the loop.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Is the recent AI unwind the start of something bigger? We discuss with Partners Group's Anastasia Amoroso, Neuberger Berman's Shannon Saccocia and Wilmington Trust's Meghan Shue. Plus, shares of Qualcomm fell despite better-than-expected Q4 results and a strong forecast. We discuss that move with star analyst Stacy Rasgon. And, Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett tells what she is expecting from stocks – amid an ugly day for the broad market.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Links & ResourcesFollow us on social media for updates: ⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠Check out our recommended tool: ⁠⁠Prop Stream⁠⁠Thank you for listening!

Reprezentanții a două mari bănci de investiții americane au tras un semnal de alarmă. Prezenți la un eveniment al liderilor financiari din întreaga lume, desfășurat la Hong Kong, directorii generali ai Morgan Stanley și Goldman Sachs au avertizat asupra posibilității ca piețele bursiere să înregistreze o scădere. Motivul ar fi acela al unei supraevaluări a domeniului tehnologic. Directorul Morgan Stanley a spus chiar că o scădere a prețurilor cu 10% sau 15% ar fi o corecție moderată și binevenită chiar, după ce indicii bursieri înregistrează maxime istorice. De altfel, o scădere a prețului acțiunilor este considerată chiar benefică însemnând o revenire la niveluri mai sustenabile. Nu este prima dată când analiștii atrag atenția asupra sectorului tehnologic. Cel mai des s-a făcut comparația între momentul de astăzi și bula „dot com” din anii 2000, atunci când companiile legate de internet s-au devalorizat puternic. David Solomon, CEO al Goldman Sachs, vorbește despre ciclurile de creștere, despre schimbarea traiectoriei și despre faptul că niciunul dintre bancherii de pe Wall Street nu poate vedea momentul scăderii până nu se întâmplă. În același timp, trebuie spus că recomandările sau opiniile liderilor din sectorul financiar au influențat piața, în sensul că a fost suficient ca bancherii de investiții să afirme, după o analiză a indicatorilor economici ai unei companii, că acțiunile nu sunt recomandate pentru cumpărare pentru ca prețul să scadă. Deci, în multe cazuri, prognozele managerilor de pe Wall Street ajung să fie profeții auto-împlinite. Piața americană de capital are și un așa-numit indicator al fricii care a urcat la un nivel maxim, în timp ce indicii bursieri au scăzut ușor. Bancherii văd că multiplii de evaluare ai companiilor de tehnologie (indicatori pe baza cărora se calculează valoarea unei firme) sunt întinși puternic. Este un sector supraîncălzit despre care analiștii financiari cred că se va corecta, adică prețul acțiunilor va scădea. Cu cât prețul acțiunilor companiilor de tehnologie crește, cu cât entuziasmul pentru inteligența artificială este mai mare, cu atât crește îngrijorarea în rândul directorilor din finanțele americane. În octombrie a.c., Jamie Dimon, șeful J.P. Morgan a avertizat asupra riscului unei corecții semnificative a prețurilor pe Bursa de la New York în următorii doi ani. Există multe zone de incertitudine la nivel mondial, precum tensiunile geopolitice, cheltuielile guvernamentale, deficitul, gradul de îndatorare al SUA, dar și noul val de remilitarizare la nivel global. Evident, cu această ocazie apar și o serie de specialiști care de-a lungul timpului au prezis diverse crize, precum cea financiară din anul 2008. Entuziasmul pentru inteligența artificială generativă a alimentat creșterea unor companii implicate în această industrie, precum Nvidia sau Microsoft. De exemplu, Nvidia a ajuns la o valoare de piață amețitoare, de 5.000 de miliarde de dolari. De asemenea, sunt analize care arată că nivelul cheltuielilor cu infrastructura legată de inteligența artificială va crește în următorii ani până la 2.800 miliarde de dolari. Recent, Open AI și Amazon au semnat un acord pe șapte ani pentru servicii de cloud în valoare de 38 miliarde de dolari. Ce ne arată aceste cifre? Că există o frenezie a finanțărilor pentru companii care au legătură cu noile tehnologii, fie că este vorba despre inteligență artificială, infrastructură tehnologică, microprocesoare sau cloud. Sunt investiții enorme care se vor derula în următorii ani. Întrebarea este: există riscul spargerii bulei companiilor de tehnologie? Părerile sunt împărțite, dar analiștii financiari observă că spre deosebire de anii 2000, companiile au profituri solide și operațiuni comerciale profitabile. Ceea ce le pune la adăpost de crize majore.

I know this keeps a lot of us up at night: When do we speak? What do we say? What if we get it wrong? And honestly, I've been wrestling with it too… From letting my actions speak louder than my words for years, to finding my voice in ways that feel more direct and meaningful now. Here's what we're covering today: the real trade-offs of using your platform, how to discern what's actually yours to carry, why "staying in your lane" might mean something completely different than you think, and what it looks like to lead imperfectly while building bridges instead of walls. If you've been wrestling with when or how to speak up about the things that break your heart, this conversation is for you. Click play to learn how to speak up about your beliefs without losing yourself or your people! Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/ Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.

Concluding a two-part roundtable discussion, our global heads of Research, Thematic Research and Firmwide AI focus on the human impacts of AI adoption in the workplace.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Kathryn Huberty: Welcome to Thoughts in The Market, and to part two of our conversation on AI adoption. I'm Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Research. Once again, I'm joined by Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic Research, and Jeff McMillan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Firm-wide AI. Today, let's focus on the human level. What this paradigm shift means for individual workers. It's Wednesday, November 5th at 10am in New York. Kathryn Huberty: Stephen, there's a lot of simultaneous fear and excitement around widespread AI adoption. There's obviously concern that AI could lead to massive job losses. But you seem optimistic about this paradigm shift. Why is that? Stephen Byrd: Yeah, as I mentioned in part one, this is the most popular discussion topic with my children. And I would say younger folks are quite concerned about this. There's a lot of angst among young folks thinking about what is that job market really going to look like for them. And admittedly, AI could be quite disruptive. So, we don't want to sugarcoat that. There's clearly going to be impacts across many jobs. Our work showed that around 90 percent of jobs will be impacted in some way. Oh, in the long term, I would guess nearly every job will be impacted in some way. The reason we are more optimistic is that what we see is a range of what we would think of as augmentation, where AI can essentially help you do something much better. It can help you expand your capabilities. And it will result in entirely new jobs. Now with any new technology, it's always hard to predict exactly what those new jobs are. But examples that I see in my world of energy would be smart grid analysis, predictive maintenance, managing systems in a much more efficient way. Systems that are so complicated that they're really beyond the capability of humans to manage very effectively. So, I'm quite excited there. I'm extremely excited in the life sciences where we could see entire new approaches to curing some of the worst diseases plaguing humankind. So, I am really very excited in terms of those new areas of job creation. In terms of job losses, one interesting analysis that a lot of investors are really focused on that we included in our Future of Work report was the ratio – within a job – of augmentation to automation. The lower the ratio, the higher the risk of job loss in the sense that that shows a sign that more of what AI is going to do, is going to replace that type of human work. Examples of that would be in professional services. As I mentioned, you know, one of my former professions, law would be an example of an area where you could see this. But essentially, tasks that don't require a lot of proprietary data, require less creativity. Those are the types of tasks that are more likely to be automated. Kathryn Huberty: One theme I hear both in Silicon Valley and in our industry is the value of domain expertise goes up. So, the lawyer that's very good in the courtroom or handling a really complicated situation because they have decades of experience, the value of that labor and talent goes up. And so, when my friends ask me what their kids should pursue in school and as a career, I tell them it's less about what job they pursue. Pick a passion and become a domain expert really quickly. Stephen Byrd: I think that's excellent advice. Kathryn Huberty: Jeff, how do you see AI changing the skills we'll need at Morgan Stanley and the way that people should think about their careers? Jeff McMillan: I think you have to break this down into three pieces – and Stephen sort of alluded to it. One, you have to look at the jobs that are likely to disappear. Two, you have to look at the jobs that are going to change. And then finally, you have to look at the new jobs that are going to actually emerge from this phenomena. You should be thinking right now about how you are going to prepare yourself with the right skills around learning how to prompt and learning how to move into those functions that are not going to be eliminated. In terms of jobs that are changing, they're going to require a far, far greater sense of collaboration, creativity. And again, prompting; prompt engineering is sort of the center of that. And I would highly encourage every single person who's listening to this to become the single best prompt engineer in their group, in their friend[s group], in their organization. And then in terms of the jobs that are being created, I'm actually pretty optimistic here. As we build agents, there's actually a bull case that we're going to create so much complexity in our environment that we're going to need more people to help manage that. But the skills are not going to be repetitive linear skills. They're going to require real time decision-making, leadership skills, collaboration skills. But again, I would go back to every single person: learn how to talk to the machine, learn how to be creative, and practice every day your engagement with this technology. Kathryn Huberty: So then how are companies balancing the re-skilling with the inevitable culture shifts that come with any new paradigm? Jeff McMillan: So, first of all, I think if you think about this as a tool, you've already lost the plot. I think that number one, you have to remind yourself what your strategy is; whatever that strategy is, this is an enabler of your strategy. The second point I'd make is that you have to go from both – the top down, in terms of leadership messaging that this change is here, it's important and it needs to be embraced. And then it's a bottoms-up because you have to empower people with the right tools and the technology to transform their own work. Because if you're trying to tell people that this is the path that they have to follow. You don't get the buy-in that you need. You really want to empower people to leverage these tools. And what excites me most is when people walk into my office and say, ‘Hey Jeff, let me show you what I built today.' And it could be some 22-year-old who; it's their first month on the job. And what's exciting about this technology is you do not need a technology background. You need to be smart; you need to be creative. And if you've got those skills, you can build things that are really innovative. And I think that's what's exciting. So, if you can combine the top down that this is important and the bottoms up with giving people the skills and the technology and the motivation – that's the secret sauce. Kathryn Huberty: Jeff, what's your advice for the next generation college students, recent college graduates as they're thinking about navigating the early parts of their career in this environment? Jeff McMillan: Well, Katy, I first of all, I'd agree with what you say. You know, everyone's like, ‘What should I study?' And the answer is – I don't actually know the answer to that question. But I would study what you care about. I would do something that you're passionate about. And the second point, and I hate to be a broken record on this. But I would be the single best user of GenerativeAI at your college. Volunteer with some nonprofit, build a use case with your friends. When you walk into your first job, impress in your interview that you are able to use this technology in really effective ways – because that will make a difference, in your first job. Kathryn Huberty: And I'm curious, are there areas where you think humans will always beat AI, whether it's in financial services or other industries? Jeff McMillan: I like to think that we are human and that gives us the ability to build trust and emotional relationships. And I think not only are we going to be better at that than machines are. But I think that's something that we as humans will always want. I think that there may be some individuals in the society that may feel differently. But I think as a general rule, the human-to-human relationship is something that's really important. And I like to think that it will be a differentiator for a long time to come. So, Katy, from where you sit as the Head of Global Research, how has GenAI changed the way research is being done? Kathryn Huberty: With the help of your team, Jeff, we have now embedded AI through the life cycle of investigating a hypothesis, doing the analysis, writing the research in a concise, effective way. Pushing that through our publishing process, developing digital content in our analysts' voice, in the local language of the client. And now we're working on a client engagement tool that helps direct our research team's time. And so, the impact here is it reduces the time to market to get a alpha generating idea to our clients and, you know, and it's freeing up time for our teams. Stephen Byrd: So, Katy, I want to build on that. Productivity is a big theme. And away from the research itself, from a management perspective, how are you and your team using AI? And what do you see as the benefits? And how are you spending the extra time that's freed up by AI? Kathryn Huberty: I like to say that the research AI strategy is less about the tools. I mean, those are critical and foundational. But it's more about how we're evolving workflow and how our teams are spending time. And so, the savings are being reinvested in actually your area – thematic research – which takes a lot more coordination, collaboration. A global cross-asset view, which just takes more time to develop, and test a hypothesis, and debate internally, and get those reports to market. But it's critical for our core strategy, which is to help our clients generate alpha. When you look at equity markets over the past 30 years, a very small number of stocks drive all of the alpha. And they tend to link to themes. And so, we're reinvesting time in identifying those themes earlier than the market to allow our clients to capture that alpha. And then the other piece is when we look at our analyst teams, they spend about a quarter of their time with clients because they have to meet with experts in the industry. They need to do the analysis, they have to build the financial forecast, manage their teams. You know, we have internal activities, build culture. And with the ability to leverage these tools to speed up some of those tasks, we think we can double the amount of time that our analysts are spending with clients. And if we're putting thought-provoking, you know, often thematic global collaborative content into the market, our clients want to spend more time with us. And so, that's the ultimate impact. On a personal level, and I think both of you can relate. I think a lot of the freed-up time right now is just following the fast pace of change in AI and keeping up with the latest technology, the latest vendors. But long term, my hope is that this frees up time for more human activities on a personal level. Learning the arts, staying active. So, this could be potentially very beneficial to society if we reinvest that time in both productive activities that have impact in business. But also productive, rewarding activities outside of the office.As we wrap up, it's clear that the influence of AI is expanding rapidly, not just in digital- and knowledge-based sectors, but increasingly in tangible real-world applications. As these innovations unfold, the way we interact with both technology and our environments will continue to evolve – both on the job and elsewhere in our lives. Jeff, Stephen, thank you both for sharing your insights. And to our listeners, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend and colleague today.

Martina Alvarez, Directora de Ventas para Iberia de Janus Henderson, analiza el mercado, poniendo el foco en la renta fija, la deuda, los bonos y en la última reunión de los Bancos Centrales. “A veces nos escondemos detrás del ruido y no vemos la foto completa”, asegura la invitada. Para ella “si nos centramos en la foto completa lo que se está viendo es un contexto sólido, con economías resilientes, creciendo de forma moderada pero creciendo”. La experta apunta a que hay que alejarse de los titulares negativos. Unos titulares que han venido de dos de las compañías más influyentes del planeta. Ted Pick, CEO de Morgan Stanley, ha afirmado que los mercados se encaminan hacia una corrección. Prevé una caída de entre el 10 y el 15%, algo similar a los que piensa David Solomon, consejero delegado de Goldman Sachs, que prevé una caída del 10 y 20% en los próximos 12 y 14 meses. También se acerca la última reunión de los Bancos Centrales. “Los Bancos Centrales han podido actuar, han tenido margen de actuación y lo han hecho”, afirma la Directora de Ventas para Iberia de Janus Henderson. Además, apunta que “a ambos lados del Atlántico se han hecho programas de estímulo para impulsar la economía, si nos alejamos del ruido y los titulares vemos unas Bolsas en positivo”. Martina Alvarez analiza cómo afecta el actual ciclo de interés en las oportunidades en renta fija, tanto en Europa como en Estados Unidos. “La renta fija no es solo un activo refugio, es una fuente de rentabilidad”, asegura la invitada. Además apunta que “hay margen, los tipos de interés en Estados Unidos están entre el 3,75% y el 4% y en Europa el 2%, donde es posible que se esté tocando suelo mientras que en Estados Unidos hay más margen para que sigan bajando esos tipos de interés”.

Two-time Emmy and three-time NAACP Image Award-winning television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed Sonia Balfour-Fears.

Two-time Emmy and three-time NAACP Image Award-winning television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed Sonia Balfour-Fears.

In the first of a two-part roundtable discussion, our Global Head of Research joins our Global Head of Thematic Research and Head of Firmwide AI to discuss how the economic and labor impacts of AI adoption.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Kathryn Huberty: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Research, and I'm joined by Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic Research, and Jeff McMillan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Firm-wide AI.Today and tomorrow, we have a special two-part episode on the number one question everyone is asking us: What does the future of work look like as we scale AI?It's Tuesday, November 4th at 10am in New York.I wanted to talk to you both because Stephen, your groundbreaking work provides a foundation for thinking through labor and economic impacts of implementing AI across industries. And Jeff, you're leading Morgan Stanley's efforts to implement AI across our more than 80,000 employee firm, requiring critical change management to unlock the full value of this technology.Let's start big picture and look at this from the industry level. And then tomorrow we'll dig into how AI is changing the nature of work for individuals.Stephen, one of the big questions in the news – and from investors – is the size of AI adoption opportunity in terms of earnings potential for S&P 500 companies and the economy as a whole. What's the headline takeaway from your analysis?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, this is the most popular topic with my children when we talk about the work that I do. And the impacts are so broad. So, let's start with the headline numbers. We did a deep dive into the S&P 500 in terms of AI adoption benefits. The net benefits based on where the technology is now, would be about little over $900 billion. And that can translate to well over 20 percent increased earnings power that could generate over $13 trillion of market cap upon adoption. And importantly, that's where the technology is now.So, what's so interesting to me is the technology is evolving very, very quickly. We've been writing a lot about the nonlinear rate of improvement of AI. And what's especially exciting right now is a number of the big American labs, the well-known companies developing these LLMs, are now gathering about 10 times the computational power to train their next model. If scaling laws hold that would result in models that are about twice as capable as they are today. So, I think 2026 is going to be a big year in terms of thinking about where we're headed in terms of adoption. So, it's frankly challenging to basically take a snapshot because the picture is moving so quickly.Kathryn Huberty: Stephen, you referenced just the fast pace of change and the daily news flow. What's the view of the timeline here? Are we measuring progress at the industry level in months, in years?Stephen Byrd: It's definitely in years. It's fast and slow. Slow in the sense that, you know, it's taken some companies a little while now and some over a year to really prepare. But now what we're seeing in our CIO survey is many companies are now moving into the first, I'd say, full fledged adoption of AI, when you can start to really see this in numbers.So, it sort of starts with a trickle, but then in 2026, it really turns into something much, much bigger. And then I go back to this point about non-linear improvement. So, what looks like, areas where AI cannot perform a task six months from now will look very different. And I think – I'm a former lawyer myself. In the field of law, for example, this has changed so quickly as to what AI can actually do. So, what I expect is it starts slow and then suddenly we look at a wide variety of tasks and AI is fairly suddenly able to do a lot more than we expect.Kathryn Huberty: Which industries are likely to be most impacted by the shift? And when you broke down the analysis to the industry and job level, what were some of the surprises?Stephen Byrd: I thought what we would see would be fairly high-tech oriented sectors – and including our own – would be top of the list. What I found was very different. So, think instead of sectors where there's fairly low profit per employee, often low margin businesses, very labor-intensive businesses. A number of areas in healthcare staples came to the top. A few real estate management businesses. So, very different than I expected.The very high-tech sectors actually had some of the lowest numbers, simply because those companies in high-tech tend to have extremely high profit per employee. So, the impact is a lot less. So that was surprising learning. A lot of clients have been digging into that.Kathryn Huberty: I could see why that would've surprised you. But let's focus on banking for a moment since we have the expert here. Jeff, what are some of the most exciting AI use cases in banking right now?Jeff McMillan: You know, I would start with software development, which was probably the first Gen AI use case out of the gate. And not only was it first, but it continues to be the most rapidly advancing. And that's probably; mostly a function of the software, you know, development community. I mean, these are developers that are constantly fiddling and making the technology better.But productivity continues to advance at a linear pace. You know, we have over 20,000 folks here at Morgan Stanley. That's 25 percent of our population. And, you know, the impact both in terms of the size of that population and the efficiencies are really, really significant.So, I would start there. And then, you know, once you start moving past that, it may not seem, you know, sexy. It's really powerful around things like document processing. Financial services firms move massive amounts of paper. We take paper in, whether it be an account opening, whether it be a contract. Somebody reads that information, they reason about it, and then they type that information into a system. AI is really purpose built for that.And then finally, just document generation. I mean, the number of presentations, portfolio reviews, you know, even in your world, Katy, research reports that we create. Once again, AI is really just – it's right down the middle in terms of its ability to generate just content and help people reduce the time and effort to do that.Kathryn Huberty: There's a lot of excitement around AI, but as Stephen mentioned, it's not a linear path. What are the biggest challenges, Jeff, to AI adoption for a big global enterprise like Morgan Stanley? What keeps you up at night?Jeff McMillan: I've often made the analogy that we own a Ferrari and we're driving around circles in a parking lot. And what I mean by that is that the technology has so far advanced beyond our own capacity to leverage it. And the biggest issue is – it's our own capacity and awareness and education.So, what keeps me up at night? it's the firm's understanding. It's each person's and each leader's ability to understand what this technology can do. Candidly, it's the basics of prompting. We spend a lot of time here at the firm just teaching people how to prompt, understanding how to speak to the machine because until you know how to do that, you don't really understand the art of the possible. I tell people, if you have $100 to spend, you should start spending [$]90, on educating your employee base. Because until you do that, you cannot effectively get the best out of the technology.Kathryn Huberty: And as we look out to 2026, what AI trends are you watching closely and how are we preparing the firm to take advantage of that?Jeff McMillan: You and I were just out in Silicon Valley a couple of weeks ago, and seemingly overnight, every firm has become an agentic one. While much of that is aspirational, I think it's actually going to be, in the long term, a true narrative, right? And I think that step where we are right now is really about experimentation, right? I think we have to learn which tools work, what new governance processes we need to put in place, where the lines are drawn. I think we're still in the early stage, but we're leaning in really hard.We've got about 20 use cases that we're experimenting with right now. As things settle down and the vendor landscape really starts to pan out, we'll be down position to fully take advantage of that.Kathryn Huberty: A key element of the agentic solutions is linking to the data, the tools, the application that we use every day in our workflow. And that ecosystem is developing, and it feels that we're now on the cusp of those agentic workflow applications taking hold.Stephen Byrd: So, Katy, I want to jump in here and ask you a question too. With your own background as an IT hardware analyst, how does the AI era compare to past tech or computing cycles? And what sort of lessons from those cycles shape your view of the opportunities and challenges ahead?Kathryn Huberty: The other big question in the market right now is whether an AI bubble is forming. You hear that in the press. It's one of the questions all three of us are hearing regularly from clients. And implicit in that question is a view that this doesn't look like past cycles, past trends. And I just don't believe that to be the case.We actually see the development of AI following a very similar path. If you go back to mainframe and then minicomputer, the PC, internet, mobile, cloud, and now AI. Each compute cycle is roughly 10 times larger in terms of the amount of installed compute.The reality is we've gone from millions to billions to trillions, and so it feels very different. But the reality is we have a trillion dollars of installed CPU compute, and that means we likely need $10 trillion of installed GPU compute. And so, we are following the same pattern. Yes, the numbers are bigger because we keep 10x-ing, but the pattern is the same. And so again, that tells us we're in the early innings. You know, we're still at the point of the semiconductor technology shipping out into infrastructure. The applications will come.The other pattern from past cycles is that exponential growth is really difficult for humans to model. So, I think back to the early days when Morgan Stanley's technology team was really bullish, laying the groundwork for the PC era, the internet era, the mobile era. When we go back and look at our forecasts, we always underestimated the potential. And so that would suggest that what we've seen with the upward earnings revisions for the AI enablers and soon the AI adopters is likely to continue.And so, I see many patterns, you know, that are thread across computing cycles, and I would just encourage investors to realize that AI so far is following similar patterns.Jeff McMillan: Katy, you make the point that much of the playbook is the same. But is there anything fundamentally different about the AI cycle that investors should be thinking about?Kathryn Huberty: The breadth of impact to industries and corporates, which speaks to Stephen's work. We have now four times over mapped the 3,700 companies globally that Morgan Stanley research covers to understand their role in this theme.Are they enabling AI? Are they adopting? Are they disrupted by it? How important is it to the thesis? Do they have pricing power? It's very valuable data to go and capture the alpha. But I was looking at that dataset recently and a third of those nearly 4,000 companies we cover, our analysts are saying that AI has an impact on the investment thesis. A third. And yet we're still in the early innings. And so, what may be different, and make the impact much bigger and broader is just the sheer number of corporations that will be impacted by the theme.Let's pause here and pick up tomorrow with more on workforce transformation and the impact on individual workers.Thank you to our listeners. Please join us tomorrow for part two of our conversation. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Two-time Emmy and three-time NAACP Image Award-winning television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed Sonia Balfour-Fears.

Learn valuable insights into creating a more effective and inclusive workforce with AI in this AI Leaders Podcast episode! Keri Smith, Global Banking Data and AI Lead, sits down with David Parker, Global Financial Services Industry Chair and GMC Member at Accenture, and Susan Reid, Global Head of Talent at Morgan Stanley, to talk about how humans and digital workforces can collaborate to achieve greater results. Don't miss this engaging conversation.

Andy Brenner says investors are bracing for a pullback after Goldman Sachs' (GS) David Solomon and Morgan Stanley's (MS) Ted Pick warned of a potential 10-20% correction, and Michael Burry revealed a $1 billion short against Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR). Brenner believes the recent selloff is a short-term wobble, but if it gains steam, it could lead to margin calls by Thursday.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This week on Purple Political Breakdown, we sit down with Adam Mizel, co-founder of US United, a not-for-profit media collective that's challenging the narrative of American division through grassroots action and community engagement.Adam's story is anything but typical. After a 30-year career spanning Morgan Stanley, private equity, hedge funds, and running public companies, he found himself at a turning point in May 2020. Like many Americans, he was screaming at his TV as the country seemed to tear itself apart following George Floyd's murder and amid pandemic chaos. But when his wife Taunya told him, "No one's hearing you if you scream at the TV," Adam decided to transform his frustration into action.What followed was a series of unexpected connections that led him to Sheriff Chris Swanson of Flint, Michiganthe sheriff who made global headlines when he and his officers removed their riot gear to march with George Floyd protesters, reaching 3.2 billion people worldwide. Together, they co-founded US United in 2021, building a movement that now includes nearly 100 sheriffs committed to fostering unity in their communities.LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/adammmizel/Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/USUnitedOrgInstagram - https://www.instagram.com/us_united_org/Twitter - https://twitter.com/US_United_OrgWebsite - https://www.us-united.org/Standard Resource Links & RecommendationsThe following organizations and platforms represent valuable resources for balanced political discourse and democratic participation: PODCAST NETWORKALIVE Podcast Network - Check out the ALIVE Network where you can catch a lot of great podcasts like my own, led by amazing Black voices. Link: https://alivepodcastnetwork.com/ CONVERSATION PLATFORMSHeadOn - A platform for contentious yet productive conversations. It's a place for hosted and unguided conversations where you can grow a following and enhance your conversations with AI features. Link: https://app.headon.ai/Living Room Conversations - Building bridges through meaningful dialogue across political divides. Link: https://livingroomconversations.org/ BALANCED NEWS & INFORMATIONOtherWeb - An AI-based platform that filters news without paywalls, clickbait, or junk, helping you access diverse, unbiased content. Link: https://otherweb.com/ VOTING REFORM & DEMOCRACYEqual Vote Coalition & STAR Voting - Advocating for voting methods that ensure every vote counts equally, eliminating wasted votes and strategic voting. Link: https://www.equal.vote/starFuture is Now Coalition (FiNC) - A grassroots movement working to restore democracy through transparency, accountability, and innovative technology while empowering citizens and transforming American political discourse FutureisFutureis. Link: https://futureis.org/ POLITICAL ENGAGEMENTIndependent Center - Resources for independent political thinking and civic engagement. Link: https://www.independentcenter.org/ Get Daily News: Text 844-406-INFO (844-406-4636) with code "purple" to receive quick, unbiased, factual news delivered to your phone every morning via Informed ( https://informed.now) All Links: https://linktr.ee/purplepoliticalbreakdownThe Purple Political Breakdown is committed to fostering productive political dialogue that transcends partisan divides. We believe in the power of conversation, balanced information, and democratic participation to build a stronger society. Our mission: "Political solutions without political bias."Subscribe, rate, and share if you believe in purple politics - where we find common ground in the middle! Also if you want to be apart of the community and the conversation make sure to Join the Discord: https://discord.gg/ptPAsZtHC9

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Big firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are sounding alarms about a possible 10–20% market pullback over the next two years — and the financial media is losing its mind over it. But here's the truth: corrections happen. Always have, always will. This isn't panic-worthy news; it's just headlines trying to grab eyeballs. Instead of trying to game the system against high-frequency traders and dark-pool sharks, stick to the fundamentals: invest consistently, stay disciplined, and quit trying to beat Wall Street at its own rigged game. Be an investor, not a gambler.

Welcome back to the Alt Goes Mainstream podcast.Today's episode is with an experienced private markets and distribution executive who has been educating the wealth channel and distributing private markets investment solutions at some of the industry's largest investment platforms.We sat down in Prudential's Newark studio with PGIM's Global Head of Alternative Investments, Dominick Carlino. PGIM is the $1.4T global asset management business of Prudential Financial.At PGIM, Dominick is responsible for driving the continued development and distribution of alternative investments tailored to the firm's wealth channel investors globally.Dominick joined the firm in 2023, bringing over 20 years of experience in alternatives distribution. He was most recently MD, Head of Alternative Investments Distribution at Merrill Lynch.Dominick and I had a fascinating conversation about the intersections between insurance and asset management and the evolution of distribution. We covered:How the distribution of private markets investment solutions has evolved.The benefits of an integrated platform across insurance and asset management.Navigating the playing field of collaboration and competition between asset managers and insurance companies.The importance of education.How, why, and where evergreen funds will be adopted.Thanks Dominick for sharing your perspectives and wisdom on insurance and private markets. We hope you enjoy.A word from AGM podcast sponsor, Ultimus Fund SolutionsThis episode of Alt Goes Mainstream is brought to you by Ultimus Fund Solutions, a leading full-service fund administrator for asset managers in private and public markets. As private markets continue to move into the mainstream, the industry requires infrastructure solutions that help funds and investors keep pace. In an increasingly sophisticated financial marketplace, investment managers must navigate a growing array of challenges: elaborate fund structures, specialized strategies, evolving compliance requirements, a growing need for sophisticated reporting, and intensifying demands for transparency.To assist with these challenging opportunities, more and more fund sponsors and asset managers are turning to Ultimus, a leading service provider that blends high tech and high touch in unique and customized fund administration and middle office solutions for a diverse and growing universe of over 450 clients and 1,800 funds, representing $500 billion assets under administration, all handled by a team of over 1,000 professionals. Ultimus offers a wide range of capabilities across registered funds, private funds and public plans, as well as outsourced middle office services. Delivering operational excellence, Ultimus helps firms manage the ever-changing regulatory environment while meeting the needs of their institutional and retail investors. Ultimus provides comprehensive operational support and fund governance services to help managers successfully launch retail alternative products.Visit www.ultimusfundsolutions.com to learn more about Ultimus' technology enhanced services and solutions or contact Ultimus Executive Vice President of Business Development Gary Harris on email at gharris@ultimusfundsolutions.com.We thank Ultimus for their support of alts going mainstream.Show Notes00:00 Message from our Sponsor, Ultimus01:18 Welcome to Alt Goes Mainstream01:55 Guest Introduction: Dominick Carlino03:34 Dom's Background and Career Journey03:55 Early Career and Transition to Alternatives05:03 Experience at Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch05:18 Evolution of Private Markets Distribution07:08 Wealth Channel and Private Markets09:08 Joining Prudential and PGIM10:25 Prudential's Capabilities and Strategy12:47 Asset Liability Matching in Private Markets14:22 Liquidity Risk and Private Markets16:16 Education and Evergreen Funds17:06 Credit Risk in Private Credit18:14 Vertical Integration and Acquisitions19:35 Partnerships and Strategic Growth20:22 Market Shakeout and Scale22:09 Product Set and Innovation23:24 Advisor and Client Needs24:45 Evergreen Funds and Market Trends26:13 Specialized Strategies in Private Markets26:41 Distribution and Education28:16 Skills for Effective Distribution30:54 Organizational Alpha and Trust31:56 Brand and Stability33:11 Partnerships and Long-term Solutions33:49 Insurance and Tax-Advantaged Strategies34:12 Asset Managers and Insurance Partnerships35:42 Private Markets in Retirement Plans36:17 Future of Private Markets36:41 Keys to Winning in Private Markets37:29 Prudential's Competitive Advantages37:48 Conclusion and Guest FarewellThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the author and do not reflect the views or opinions of PGIM, Inc. PGIM, Inc. is not responsible, endorses nor confirms its accuracy. All trademarks and other intellectual property used or displayed are the ownership of their respective owners. Unless noted otherwise in this podcast, PGIM, Inc. is not affiliated with, nor  endorses any mentioned company or any linked third-party content. PGIM and its affiliates may develop and publish research that is independent of, and different than, the recommendations contained herein. PGIM's personnel other than the author(s), such as sales, marketing and trading personnel, may provide oral or written market commentary or ideas to PGIM's clients or prospects or proprietary investment ideas that differ from the views expressed herein.Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.

Palantir kwam met 'buitenaards' goede kwartaalcijfers. Omzet en winst gingen enorm omhoog, maar toch ging het aandeel hard naar beneden. Had dat te maken met het feit dat het aandeel wel erg duur was geworden of het feit dat een beroemde shortseller zich meldt?Deze aflevering hebben we het over Michael Burry. De man waar de legendarische film Big Short op is gebaseerd. De man die de financiële crisis aan zag komen. Die man gaat nu short op Palantir (en op Nvidia). Tot woede van de baas van Palantir, die zit te schuimbekken op analisten én shortsellers. Ook hebben we het over iets bijzonders. Philips dat met goed nieuws komt! Het aandeel Philips is zelfs dé grote winnaar op de AEX. We kijken waar aandeelhouders zo blij van worden.Kijken we ook naar een concurrent van Shell, naar BP. Dat maakte een draai. Minder inzetten op duurzame energie en meer op het ouderwetse olie en gas. En dat zorgt voor kwartaalcijfers die boven de verwachting uitkomen. De cijfers van Uber en Spotify hoor je ook, net als die van Nintendo. En we moeten het over de megabonus van Elon Musk hebben. Je weet wel, die 1000 miljard dollar die hij bij Tesla kan krijgen. Die lijkt nu steeds meer uit beeld...See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Die CEOs von Morgan Stanley und Goldman Sachs warnen, während der HSBC-Chef vor überzogenen KI-Investitionen warnt. Michael Burry setzt auf fallende Kurse bei Palantir und NVIDIA. Trotz starker Zahlen stehen Palantir, Shopify und Uber unter Druck – Anleger nehmen Gewinne mit. Auch außerhalb des Tech-Sektors enttäuschen viele Unternehmen: Clorox, Eastman Chemical, Hims & Hers, Norwegian Cruise, Stanley Black & Decker, Harley-Davidson, Molson Coors und Marriott. Lichtblick: Pfizer hebt Prognose an. Nachbörslich folgen noch AMD, Arista Networks und Super Micro.Kurz gesagt: Tech-Aktien wanken, Gewinnmitnahmen nehmen zu – die Wall Street steht unter Druck. Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! ____ Folge uns, um auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben: • X: http://fal.cn/SQtwitter • LinkedIn: http://fal.cn/SQlinkedin • Instagram: http://fal.cn/SQInstagram

Die CEOs von Morgan Stanley und Goldman Sachs warnen, während der HSBC-Chef vor überzogenen KI-Investitionen warnt. Michael Burry setzt auf fallende Kurse bei Palantir und NVIDIA. Trotz starker Zahlen stehen Palantir, Shopify und Uber unter Druck – Anleger nehmen Gewinne mit. Auch außerhalb des Tech-Sektors enttäuschen viele Unternehmen: Clorox, Eastman Chemical, Hims & Hers, Norwegian Cruise, Stanley Black & Decker, Harley-Davidson, Molson Coors und Marriott. Lichtblick: Pfizer hebt Prognose an. Nachbörslich folgen noch AMD, Arista Networks und Super Micro.Kurz gesagt: Tech-Aktien wanken, Gewinnmitnahmen nehmen zu – die Wall Street steht unter Druck. Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. +++ Alle Rabattcodes und Infos zu unseren Werbepartnern findet ihr hier: https://linktr.ee/wallstreet_podcast +++ +++ Hinweis zur Werbeplatzierung von Meta: https://backend.ad-alliance.de/fileadmin/Transparency_Notice/Meta_DMAJ_TTPA_Transparency_Notice_-_Ad_Alliance_approved.pdf +++ Der Podcast wird vermarktet durch die Ad Alliance. Die allgemeinen Datenschutzrichtlinien der Ad Alliance finden Sie unter https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html Die Ad Alliance verarbeitet im Zusammenhang mit dem Angebot die Podcasts-Daten. Wenn Sie der automatischen Übermittlung der Daten widersprechen wollen, klicken Sie hier: https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html Impressum: https://www.360wallstreet.de/impressum

We live in a world where rest has been branded as lazy. Where women, especially ambitious women and entrepreneurs, are expected to do it all: run the business, raise the kids, support the family, maintain friendships, and keep it all looking effortless. But beneath the surface? So many of us are exhausted, overwhelmed, and quietly wondering if we'll ever feel “enough.” Nicola Jane Hobbs is here to challenge that narrative. Nicola is a chartered psychologist with a master's degree in sport and exercise psychology, and she's spent more than a decade supporting women's health and wellbeing through yoga, meditation, and therapeutic practice. She's also the founder of The Relaxed Woman, a movement and community dedicated to helping women recover from stress and burnout. In this episode, Nicola and I are unpacking why rest feels so hard for women, why female entrepreneurs in particular struggle to switch off, and the practical rituals and strategies we can use to finally make peace with rest. If you've ever felt guilty for slowing down, or if burnout has been lurking in the background of your business journey, this episode is for you. Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/ Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Visit http://www.spectrum.com/freeforlife to learn how you can get Business Internet Free Forever. Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Your dream wardrobe's one click away. Visit https://www.revolve.com/goaldigger for 15% off your first order with code GOALDIGGER.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson looks at buying opportunities approaching year-end, as U.S. trade policy and the Fed find middle ground. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing recent macro events and third quarter earnings results.It's Monday, November 3rd at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Last week marked the passage of two key macro events: the meeting on trade between Presidents Trump and Xi and the October Fed meeting. On the trade front, the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on China by 10 percent and delay newly proposed tech export controls for a year. In exchange, China agreed to pause its proposed export controls on rare earths, and resume soybean purchases while cracking down on fentanyl. This is a major positive relative to how developments could have gone following the sharp escalation a few weeks ago, and markets have responded accordingly.With respect to the Fed meeting, Powell suggested policy is not on a preset course which took the bond market probability of a December rate cut down from 92 percent before the meeting to 68 percent currently. It also led to some modest consolidation in equity prices while breadth remained very weak. In my view, the market is saying that if growth holds up but the Fed only cuts rates modestly, leadership is likely to remain narrow and up the quality curve.Over the next 6 to 12 months, we think moderate weakness in lagging labor data, and a stronger than expected earnings backdrop ultimately sets the stage for a broadening in market leadership. However, we are also respectful of the signals the markets are sending in the near term. This means it's still too early to press the small cap/low quality/deep cyclical rotation trade until the Fed shows a clear willingness to get ahead of the curve. Perhaps just as important for markets was the Fed's decision to end Quantitative Tightening, or QT, in December.Recently, Jay Powell has acknowledged the potential for rising stress in the funding markets and indicated the Fed could end QT sooner rather than later. Over the past month, expectations for the timing of this QT termination ranged from immediately to as late as February. Powell seemed to split the difference at last week's meeting and this could be viewed as disappointing to some market participants.In order to monitor this development, I will be watching how short-term funding markets behave. Specifically, overnight repo usage has been on the rise and if that continues along with the widening spreads between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate and fed funds, I believe equity markets are likely to trade poorly, especially in some of the more speculative areas. In short, we think higher quality areas of the market are likely to continue to outperform until this dynamic is settled.Meanwhile, earnings season is in full swing and the real standout has been the upside in revenue surprises, which is currently more than double the historical run-rate. We think this could provide further support that our rolling recovery thesis is under way which leads to much better earnings growth than most are expecting.Bottom line, we are gaining more confidence in our core view that a new bull market began in April with the end of the rolling recession and the beginning of a new cycle. This means higher and broader earnings growth in 2026 and a potentially different leadership in the equity market. The full broadening out to lower quality, smaller capitalization stocks is being held back by a Fed that continues to fight inflation; perhaps not realizing how much the private economy and average consumer needs lower rates for this rolling recovery to fully blossom. Last week's Fed meeting could be disappointing in that regard in the short run for equity markets. As a result, stay up the quality curve until we get more clarity on the timing of a more dovish path by the Fed and look for stress in funding markets as a possible buying opportunity into year end.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson talked to Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern about why the Federal Reserve “is way behind the curve on rates” and slowing the “rolling recovery” in place in the US.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to the DFO Rundown with Jason Gregor and Jeff Marek!We start the show with a quick look at the World Series, where the Dodgers defeated the Blue Jays in extra innings on Saturday. Would you rather get swept or lose in OT?Then we dive into the NHL, discussing luxury teams and dynasties. Is the definition of a dynasty changing in today's league, where teams don't dominate like they used to?Next, we examine the Eastern Conference, where every team is currently over .500 in points percentage. Is the league tighter than before, and is that good for the NHL?Matthew Schaefer continues to impress, scoring a hat trick on Sunday and totaling 5 goals in 12 games. Could he challenge the record for most goals by a defenseman in their first NHL season? (Brian Leetch had 23 in 1989.)We also review Evgeni Malkin's slash on Morgan Stanley and discuss whether it warrants a suspension.Later, we play some “Buy or Sell”, covering Schaefer's hot start, the World Series playing on the scoreboard in Edmonton, and whether the Flames are overplaying Dustin Wolf.To wrap up, we talk about the struggling Nashville Predators and the possibility of Barry Trotz returning as head coach. Could it happen?Want to hear more from Jason and the entire DFO team? Subscribe to our YouTubeYou can get involved with all the NHL futures action over on bet365 by using the promo code NATION at bet365.comConnect with us on ⬇️TwitterInstagramWebsiteDaily Faceoff Merch Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our Japan Financials Analyst Mia Nagasaka discusses how the country's new stablecoin regulations and digital payments are set to transform the flow of money not only locally, but globally.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mia Nagasaka, Head of Japan Financials Research at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. Today – Japan's stablecoin revolution and why it matters to global investors. It's Friday, October 31st, at 4pm in Tokyo. Japan may be late to the crypto market. But its first yen-denominated stablecoin is just around the corner. And it has the potential to quietly reshape how digital money moves across the country and globally. You may have heard of digital money like Bitcoin. It's significantly more volatile than traditional financial assets like stocks and bonds. Stablecoins are different. They are digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to assets such as the yen or U.S. dollar. And in June 2023, Japan amended its Payment Services Acts to create a legal framework for stablecoins. Market participants in Japan and abroad are watching closely whether the JPY stablecoin can establish itself as a major global digital currency, such as Tether. Stablecoins promise to make payments faster, cheaper, and available 24/7. Japan's cashless payment ratio jumped from about 30 percent in 2020 to 43 percent in 2024, and there's still room to grow compared to other countries. The government's push for fintech and digital payments is accelerating, and stablecoins could be the missing link to a truly digital economy. Unlike Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, stablecoins are designed to suppress price volatility. They're managed by private companies and backed by assets—think cash, government bonds, or even commodities like gold. Industry watchers think stablecoins can make digital payments as reliable as cash, but with the speed and flexibility of the internet. Japan's regulatory approach is strict: stablecoins must be 100 percent backed by high-quality, liquid assets, and algorithmic stablecoins are prohibited. Issuers must meet transparency and reserve requirements, and monthly audits are standard. This is similar to new rules in the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong. What does this mean in practice? Financial institutions are exploring stablecoins for instant payments, asset management, and lending. For example, real-time settlement of stock and bond trades normally take days. These transactions could happen in seconds with stablecoins. They also enable new business models like Banking-as-a-Service and Web3 integration, although regulatory costs and low interest rates remain hurdles for profitability.Or think about SWIFT transactions, the backbone of international payments. Stablecoins will not replace SWIFT, but they can supplement it. Payments that used to take days can now be completed in seconds, with up to 80 percent lower fees. But trust in issuers and compliance with anti-money laundering rules are critical. There's another topic on top of investors' minds. CBDCs – Central Bank Digital Currencies. Both stablecoins and CBDCs are digital. But digital currencies are issued by central banks and considered legal tender, whereas stablecoins are private-sector innovations. Japan is the world's fourth-largest economy and considered a leader in technology. But it takes a cautious approach to financial transformation. It is preparing for a CBDC but hasn't committed to launching one yet. If and when that happens, stablecoins and CBDCs can coexist, with the digital currency serving as public infrastructure and stablecoins driving innovation. So, what's the bottom line? Japan's stablecoin journey is just beginning, but its impact could ripple across payments, asset management, and even global finance. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

What does it take to keep a family business thriving for generations? In this episode of Unstoppable Mindset, I talk with Jan Southern, a seasoned business advisor who helps family-owned companies build long-term success through structure, trust, and clarity. We explore why so many family firms lose their way by the third generation—and what can be done right now to change that story. Jan shares how documenting processes, empowering people, and aligning goals can turn complexity into confidence. We unpack her “Three Ps” framework—People, Process, and Product—and discuss how strong leadership, accountability, and smart AI adoption keep growth steady and sustainable. If you've ever wondered what separates businesses that fade from those that flourish, this conversation will show you how to turn structure into freedom and process into legacy. Highlights: 00:10 – Why unexpected stories reveal how real businesses grow. 01:39 – How early life in Liberal, Kansas shaped a strong work ethic. 07:51 – What a 10,000 sq ft HQ build-out teaches about operations. 09:35 – How a trading floor was rebuilt in 36 hours and why speed matters. 11:21 – Why acquisitions fail without tribal knowledge and culture continuity. 13:19 – What Ferguson Alliance does for mid-market family businesses. 14:08 – Why many family firms don't make it to the third generation. 17:33 – How the 3 Ps—people, process, product—create durable growth. 20:49 – Why empowerment and clear decision rights prevent costly delays. 33:02 – The step-by-step process mapping approach that builds buy-in. 36:41 – Who should sponsor change and how to align managers. 49:36 – Why process docs and succession planning start on day one. 56:21 – Realistic timelines: six weeks to ninety days and beyond. 58:19 – How referrals expand projects across departments. About the Guest: With over 40 years of experience in the realm of business optimization and cost-effective strategies, Jan is a seasoned professional dedicated to revolutionizing company efficiency. From collaborating with large corporations encompassing over 1,000 employees to small 2-person offices, Jan's expertise lies in meticulously analyzing financials, processes, policies and procedures to drive enhanced performance. Since joining Ferguson Alliance in 2024, Jan has become a Certified Exit Planning Advisor and is currently in the process of certification in Artificial Intelligence Consulting and Implementation, adding to her ability to quickly provide businesses with an assessment and tools that will enhance their prosperity in today's competitive landscape. Jan's forte lies in crafting solutions that align with each client's vision, bolstering their bottom line and staffing dynamics. Adept in setting policies that align with company objectives, Jan is renowned for transforming challenges into opportunities for growth and longevity. With a knack for unraveling inefficiencies and analyzing net income, Jan is a go-to expert for family-owned businesses looking to extend their legacy into future generations. Ways to connect with Jan: Email address : Jan@Ferguson-Alliance.com Phone: 713 851 2229 LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jansouthern cepa Website: https://ferguson alliance.com About the Host: Michael Hingson is a New York Times best-selling author, international lecturer, and Chief Vision Officer for accessiBe. Michael, blind since birth, survived the 9/11 attacks with the help of his guide dog Roselle. This story is the subject of his best-selling book, Thunder Dog. Michael gives over 100 presentations around the world each year speaking to influential groups such as Exxon Mobile, AT&T, Federal Express, Scripps College, Rutgers University, Children's Hospital, and the American Red Cross just to name a few. He is Ambassador for the National Braille Literacy Campaign for the National Federation of the Blind and also serves as Ambassador for the American Humane Association's 2012 Hero Dog Awards. https://michaelhingson.com https://www.facebook.com/michael.hingson.author.speaker/ https://twitter.com/mhingson https://www.youtube.com/user/mhingson https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelhingson/ accessiBe Links https://accessibe.com/ https://www.youtube.com/c/accessiBe https://www.linkedin.com/company/accessibe/mycompany/ https://www.facebook.com/accessibe/ Thanks for listening! Thanks so much for listening to our podcast! If you enjoyed this episode and think that others could benefit from listening, please share it using the social media buttons on this page. Do you have some feedback or questions about this episode? Leave a comment in the section below! Subscribe to the podcast If you would like to get automatic updates of new podcast episodes, you can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher. You can subscribe in your favorite podcast app. You can also support our podcast through our tip jar https://tips.pinecast.com/jar/unstoppable-mindset . Leave us an Apple Podcasts review Ratings and reviews from our listeners are extremely valuable to us and greatly appreciated. They help our podcast rank higher on Apple Podcasts, which exposes our show to more awesome listeners like you. If you have a minute, please leave an honest review on Apple Podcasts. Transcription Notes: Michael Hingson ** 00:00 Access Cast and accessiBe Initiative presents Unstoppable Mindset. The podcast where inclusion, diversity and the unexpected meet. Hi, I'm Michael Hingson, Chief Vision Officer for accessiBe and the author of the number one New York Times bestselling book, Thunder dog, the story of a blind man, his guide dog and the triumph of trust. Thanks for joining me on my podcast as we explore our own blinding fears of inclusion unacceptance and our resistance to change. We will discover the idea that no matter the situation, or the people we encounter, our own fears, and prejudices often are our strongest barriers to moving forward. The unstoppable mindset podcast is sponsored by accessiBe, that's a c c e s s i capital B e. Visit www.accessibe.com to learn how you can make your website accessible for persons with disabilities. And to help make the internet fully inclusive by the year 2025. Glad you dropped by we're happy to meet you and to have you here with us.   Michael Hingson ** 01:20 Well, hi everyone. I want to welcome you to unstoppable mindset where inclusion, diversity and the unexpected meet. But the neat thing about it is we don't usually deal with inclusion or diversity. We deal with everything, but that because people come on this podcast to tell their own stories, and that's what we get to do today with Jan southern not necessarily anything profound about inclusion or diversity, but certainly the unexpected. And I'm sure we're going to figure out how that happens and what's unexpected about whatever I got to tell you. Before we started, we were just sitting here telling a few puns back and forth. Oh, well, we could always do that, Jan, well, welcome to unstoppable mindset. We're glad you're here. Thank you so much. Glad to be here. Any puns before we start?   Jan Southern ** 02:09 No, I think we've had enough of those. I think we did it   Michael Hingson ** 02:11 in, huh? Yes. Well, cool. Well, I want to thank you for being here. Jan has been very actively involved in a lot of things dealing with business and helping people and companies of all sizes, companies of all sizes. I don't know about people of all sizes, but companies of all sizes in terms of becoming more effective and being well, I'll just use the term resilient, but we'll get into that. But right now, let's talk about the early Jan. Tell us about Jan growing up and all that sort of stuff that's always fun to start with.   Jan Southern ** 02:50 Yes, I grew up in Liberal Kansas, which is a small town just north of the Oklahoma border and a little bit east of New Mexico kind of down in that little Four Corners area. And I grew up in the time when we could leave our house in the morning on the weekends and come home just before dusk at night, and our parents didn't panic, you know. So it was a good it was a good time growing up. I i lived right across the street from the junior high and high school, so I had a hugely long walk to work, I mean,   Michael Hingson ** 03:28 to school,   Jan Southern ** 03:30 yeah, and so, you know, was a, was a cheerleader in high school, and went to college, then at Oklahoma State, and graduated from there, and here I am in the work world. I've been working since I was about 20 years old, and I'd hate to tell you how many years that's been.   Michael Hingson ** 03:51 You can if you want. I won't tell   03:55 nobody will know.   Michael Hingson ** 03:57 Good point. Well, I know it's been a long time I read your bio, so I know, but that's okay. Well, so when you What did you major in in college psychology? Ah, okay. And did you find a bachelor's degree or just bachelor's   Jan Southern ** 04:16 I did not. I got an Mrs. Degree and had two wonderful children and grew up, they've grown up and to become very fine young men with kids of their own. So I have four grandchildren and one great grandchild, so   Michael Hingson ** 04:33 Wowie Zowie, yeah, that's pretty cool. So when you left college after graduating, what did you do?   Jan Southern ** 04:40 I first went to work in a bank. My ex husband was in pharmacy school at Oklahoma, State University of Oklahoma, and so I went to work in a bank. I was the working wife while he went to pharmacy school. And went to work in a bank, and years later, became a bank consultant. So we we lived in Norman, Oklahoma until he was out of school and and as I began having children during our marriage, I went to work for a pediatrician, which was very convenient when you're trying to take care of kids when they're young.   Michael Hingson ** 05:23 Yeah, and what did you What did you do for a pediatrician?   Jan Southern ** 05:27 I was, I was her receptionist, and typed medical charts, so I learned a lot about medicine. Was very she was head of of pediatrics at a local hospital, and also taught at the university. And so I got a great education and health and well being of kids. It was, it was a great job.   Michael Hingson ** 05:51 My my sister in law had her first child while still in high school, and ended up having to go to work. She went to work for Kaiser Permanente as a medical transcriber, but she really worked her way up. She went to college, got a nursing degree, and so on, and she became a nurse. And eventually, when she Well, she didn't retire, but her last job on the medical side was she managed seven wards, and also had been very involved in the critical care unit. Was a nurse in the CCU for a number of years. Then she was tasked. She went to the profit making side of Kaiser, as it were, and she was tasked with bringing paperless charts into Kaiser. She was the nurse involved in the team that did that. So she came a long way from being a medical transcriber.   Jan Southern ** 06:51 Well, she came a long way from being a single mom in high school. That's a great story of success.   Michael Hingson ** 06:56 Well, and she wasn't totally a single mom. She she and the guy did marry, but eventually they they did divorce because he wasn't as committed as he should be to one person, if it were,   Speaker 1 ** 07:10 that's a familiar story. And he also drank and eventually died of cirrhosis of the liver. Oh, that's too bad. Yeah, that's always sad, but, you know, but, but she coped, and her her kids cope. So it works out okay. So you went to work for a pediatrician, and then what did you do?   Jan Southern ** 07:31 Well, after my husband, after he graduated, was transferred to Dallas, and I went to work for a company gardener, Denver company at the time, they've been since purchased by another company. And was because of my experience in banking prior to the pediatrician, I went to work in their corporate cash management division, and I really enjoyed that I was in their corporate cash management for their worldwide division, and was there for about four years, and really enjoyed it. One of my most exciting things was they were moving their headquarters from Quincy, Illinois down to Dallas. And so I had been hired. But since they were not yet in Dallas, I worked with a gentleman who was in charge of putting together their corporate offices. And so we made all the arrangements. As far as we had a got a 10,000 square foot blank space when we started. And our job was to get every desk, every chair, every pen and pencil. And so when somebody moved from Quincy, Illinois, they moved in and they had their desk all set up. Their cuticles were cubicles were ready to go and and they were they could hit the ground running day one, so that,   Michael Hingson ** 09:02 so you, you clearly really got into dealing with organization, I would would say, then, wouldn't, didn't you?   Jan Southern ** 09:11 Yes, yes, that was my, probably my first exposure to to the corporate world and learning exactly how things could be more efficient, more cost effective. And I really enjoyed working for that company.   Michael Hingson ** 09:30 I remember, after September 11, we worked to provide the technology that we were selling, but we provided technology to Wall Street firms so they could recover their data and get set up again to be able to open the stock exchange and all the trading floors on the 17th of September. So the next Monday. And it was amazing, one of the companies was, I think it was Morgan Stanley. Finally and they had to go find new office space, because their office space in the World Trade Center was, needless to say, gone. They found a building in Jersey City that had a floor, they said, about the size of a football field, and from Friday night to Sunday afternoon, they said it took about 36 hours. They brought in computers, including IBM, taking computers from some of their own people, and just bringing them into to Morgan Stanley and other things, including some of the technology that we provided. And within 36 hours, they had completely reconstructed a trading floor. That's amazing. It was, it was absolutely amazing to see that. And you know, for everyone, it was pretty crazy, but Wall Street opened on the 17th and and continued to survive.   Jan Southern ** 10:57 That's a great story.   Michael Hingson ** 10:59 So what did you do? So you did this, this work with the 10,000 square foot space and other things like that. And then what?   Jan Southern ** 11:08 Well, once, once everyone moved into the space in Dallas. Then I began my work in their in their corporate cash management area. And from there, my next job was working in a bank when my my husband, then was transferred back to Tulsa, Oklahoma, and I went back to work in banking. And from that bank, I was there about three to four years, and I was hired then by John Floyd as a as a consultant for banks and credit unions, and I was with that company for 42 years. My gosh, I know that's unusual these days, but I really enjoyed what I did. We did re engineering work and cost effectiveness and banks and credit unions for those 42 years. And so that was where I really cut my teeth on process improvement and continuous improvement, and still in that industry. But their company was bought by a an equity firm. And of course, when that happens, they like to make changes and and bring in their own folks. So those of us who had been there since day one were no longer there.   Michael Hingson ** 12:26 When did that happen?   Jan Southern ** 12:27 That was in 2022   Michael Hingson ** 12:32 so it's interesting that companies do that they always want to bring in their own people. And at least from my perspective, it seems to me that they forget that they lose all the tribal knowledge that people who have been working there have that made the company successful   Jan Southern ** 12:51 Absolutely. So I guess they're still doing well, and they've done well for themselves afterwards, and but, you know, they do, they lose all the knowledge, they lose all of the continuity with the clients. And it's sad that they do that, but that's very, very common.   Michael Hingson ** 13:13 Yeah, I know I worked for a company that was bought by Xerox, and all the company wanted was our technology. All Xerox wanted was the technology. And they lost all of the knowledge that all the people with sales experience and other kinds of experiences brought, because they terminated all of us when the company was fully in the Xerox realm of influence.   Jan Southern ** 13:39 So you know what I went through? Yeah.   Michael Hingson ** 13:42 Well, what did you do after you left that company? After you left John Floyd,   Jan Southern ** 13:47 I left John Floyd, I was under a I was under a non compete, so I kind of knocked around for a couple of years. I was of age where I could have retired, but I wasn't ready to. So then I found Ferguson Alliance, and I'm now a business advisor for family owned businesses, and so I've been with Ferguson just over a year, and doing the same type of work that I did before. In addition to that, I have become a certified Exit Planning advisor, so that I can do that type of work as well. So that's that's my story in a nutshell. As far as employment,   Michael Hingson ** 14:26 what is Ferguson Alliance?   Jan Southern ** 14:29 Ferguson Alliance, we are business advisors for family owned businesses. And the perception is that a family owned business is going to be a small business, but there are over 500,000 family owned businesses in the United States. Our market is the middle market, from maybe 50 employees up to 1000 20 million in revenues, up to, you know, the sky's the limit, and so we do. Do a lot of work as far as whatever can help a family owned business become more prosperous and survive into future generations. It's a sad statistic that most family owned businesses don't survive into the third generation.   Michael Hingson ** 15:16 Why is that?   Jan Southern ** 15:19 I think because they the first the first generation works themselves, their fingers to the bone to get their their business off the ground, and they get successful, and their offspring often enjoy, if you will, the fruits of the labors of their parents and so many of them, once they've gone to college, they don't have an interest in joining the firm, and so they go on and succeed on their own. And then their children, of course, follow the same course from from their work. And so that's really, I think, the primary reason, and also the the founders of the businesses have a tendency to let that happen, I think. And so our coaching programs try to avoid that and help them to bring in the second and third generations so that they can, you know, they can carry on a legacy of their parents or the founders.   Michael Hingson ** 16:28 So what do you do, and what kinds of initiatives do you take to extend the longevity of a family owned business then,   Jan Southern ** 16:39 well, the first thing is that that Rob, who's our founder of our family owned business, does a lot of executive coaching and helps the helps the people who are within the business, be it the founder or being at their second or third generations, and he'll help with coaching them as to how to, hey, get past the family dynamics. Everybody has their own business dynamics. And then you add on top of that, the family dynamics, in addition to just the normal everyday succession of a business. And so we help them to go through those types of challenges, if you will. They're not always a challenge, but sometimes, if there are challenges, Rob's coaching will take them through that and help them to develop a succession plan that also includes a document that says that that governance plan as to how their family business will be governed, in addition to just a simple succession plan, and my role in a lot of that is to make sure that their business is ready to prosper too. You know that their their assessment of as far as whether they're profitable, whether they are their processes are in place, etc, but one of the primary things that we do is to help them make certain that that if they don't want to survive into future generations, that we help them to prepare to either pass it along to a family member or pass it along to someone who's a non family member, right?   Michael Hingson ** 18:34 So I've heard you mentioned the 3p that are involved in extending longevity. Tell me about that. What are the three P's?   Jan Southern ** 18:41 Well, the first p is your people. You know, if you don't take care of your people, be they family members or non family members, then you're not going to be very successful. So making certain that you have a system in place, have a culture in place that takes care of your people. To us, is very key. Once you make sure that your people are in a culture of continuous improvement and have good, solid foundation. In that regard, you need to make sure that your processes are good. That's the second P that that you have to have your processes all documented, that you've authorized your people to make decisions that they don't always have to go to somebody else. If you're a person in the company and you recognize that something's broken, then you need to have empowerment so that your people can make decisions and not always have to get permission from someone else to make certain that those processes continuously are approved improved. That's how to you. Could have became so successful is they installed a product. They called it, I say, a product. They installed a culture. They called it kaizen. And so Kaizen was simply just continuous improvement, where, if you were doing a process and you ask yourself, why did I do it this way? Isn't there a better way? Then, you know, you're empowered to find a better way and to make sure that that that you can make that decision, as long as it fits in with the culture of the company. Then the third P is product. You know, you've got to have a product that people want. I know that you've seen a lot of companies fail because they're pushing a product that nobody wants. And so you make certain that your products are good, your products are good, high quality, and that you can deliver them in the way that you promise. And so those are really the 3p I'd like to go back to process and just kind of one of the things, as you know, we had some horrendous flooding here in Texas recently, and one of the things that happened during that, and not that it was a cause of it, but just one of the things that exacerbated the situation, is someone called to say, Please, we need help. There's flooding going on. It was one of their first responders had recognized that there was a tragic situation unfolding, and when he called into their system to give alerts, someone says, Well, I'm going to have to get approval from my supervisor, with the approval didn't come in time. So what's behind that? We don't know, but that's just a critical point as to why you should empower your people to make decisions when, when it's necessary.   Michael Hingson ** 21:56 I'm sure, in its own way, there was some of that with all the big fires out here in California back in January, although part of the problem with those is that aircraft couldn't fly for 36 hours because the winds were so heavy that there was just no way that the aircraft could fly. But you got to wonder along the way, since they are talking about the fact that the electric companies Southern California, Edison had a fair amount to do with probably a lot a number of the fires igniting and so on, one can only wonder what might have happened if somebody had made different decisions to better prepare and do things like coating the wires so that if they touch, they wouldn't spark and so on that they didn't do. And, you know, I don't know, but one can only wonder.   Jan Southern ** 22:53 It's hard to know, you know, and in our situation, would it have made any difference had that person been able to make a decision on her own? Yeah, I was moving so rapidly, it might not have made any any difference at all, but you just have to wonder, like you said,   Michael Hingson ** 23:10 yeah, there's no way to, at this point, really know and understand, but nevertheless, it is hopefully something that people learn about for the future, I heard that they're now starting to coat wires, and so hopefully that will prevent a lot, prevent a lot of the sparking and so on. I'd always thought about they ought to put everything underground, but coating wire. If they can do that and do it effectively, would probably work as well. And that's, I would think, a lot cheaper than trying to put the whole power grid underground.   Jan Southern ** 23:51 I would think so we did when I was with my prior company. We did a project where they were burying, they were putting everything underground, and Burlington Vermont, and it was incredible what it takes to do that. I mean, you just, we on the outside, just don't realize, you know, there's a room that's like 10 by six underground that carries all of their equipment and things necessary to do that. And I never realized how, how costly and how difficult it was to bury everything. We just have the impression that, well, they just bury this stuff underground, and that's all. That's all it takes. But it's a huge, huge undertaking in order to do that   Michael Hingson ** 24:36 well. And it's not just the equipment, it's all the wires, and that's hundreds and of miles and 1000s of miles of cable that has to be buried underground, and that gets to be a real challenge.   Jan Southern ** 24:47 Oh, exactly, exactly. So another story about cables. We were working in West Texas one time on a project, and we're watching them stretch the. Wiring. They were doing some internet provisioning for West Texas, which was woefully short on in that regard, and they were stringing the wire using helicopters. It was fascinating, and the only reason we saw that is it was along the roadways when we were traveling from West Texas, back into San Antonio, where flights were coming in and out of so that was interesting to watch.   Michael Hingson ** 25:28 Yeah, yeah. People get pretty creative. Well, you know, thinking back a little bit, John Floyd must have been doing something right to keep you around for 42 years.   Jan Southern ** 25:40 Yes, they did. They were a fabulous country company and still going strong. I think he opened in 1981 it's called advantage. Now, it's not John Floyd, but Right, that was a family owned business. That's where I got to cut my teeth on the dynamics of a family owned business and how they should work and how and his niece is one of the people that's still with the company. Whether, now that they're owned by someone else, whether she'll be able to remain as they go into different elements, is, is another question. But yeah, they were, they were great.   Michael Hingson ** 26:20 How many companies, going back to the things we were talking about earlier, how many companies when they're when they buy out another company, or they're bought out by another company, how many of those companies generally do succeed and continue to grow? Do you have any statistics, or do more tend not to than do? Or   Jan Southern ** 26:40 I think that more tend to survive. They tend to survive, though, with a different culture, I guess you would say they they don't retain the culture that they had before. I don't have any firm statistics on that, because we don't really deal with that that much, but I don't they tend to survive with it, with a the culture of the newer company, if they fold them in, yeah.   Michael Hingson ** 27:15 Well, and the reality is to be fair, evolution always takes place. So the John Floyd and say, 2022 wasn't the same as the John Floyd company in 1981   Jan Southern ** 27:31 not at all. No, exactly, not at all.   Michael Hingson ** 27:34 So it did evolve, and it did grow. And so hopefully, when that company was absorbed elsewhere and with other companies, they they do something to continue to be successful, and I but I think that's good. I know that with Xerox, when it bought Kurzweil, who I worked for, they were also growing a lot and so on. The only thing is that their stock started to drop. I think that there were a number of things. They became less visionary, I think is probably the best way to put it, and they had more competition from other companies developing and providing copiers and other things like that. But they just became less visionary. And so the result was that they didn't grow as much as probably they should have.   Jan Southern ** 28:28 I think that happens a lot. Sometimes, if you don't have a culture of continuous improvement and continuous innovation, which maybe they didn't, I'm not that familiar with how they move forward, then you get left behind. You know, I'm I'm in the process right now, becoming certified in artificial intelligent in my old age. And the point that's made, not by the company necessarily that I'm studying with, but by many others, is there's going to be two different kinds of companies in the future. There's going to be those who have adopted AI and those who used to be in business. And I think that's probably fair.   Michael Hingson ** 29:13 I think it is. And I also we talked with a person on this podcast about a year ago, or not quite a year ago, but, but he said, AI will not replace anyone's jobs. People will replace people's jobs with AI, but they shouldn't. They shouldn't eliminate anyone from the workforce. And we ended up having this discussion about autonomous vehicles. And the example that he gave is, right now we have companies that are shippers, and they drive product across the country, and what will happen to the drivers when the driving process becomes autonomous and you have self driving vehicles, driving. Across country. And his point was, what they should do, what people should consider doing is not eliminating the drivers, but while the machine is doing the driving, find and give additional or other tasks to the drivers to do so they can continue to be contributors and become more efficient and help the company become more efficient, because now you've got people to do other things than what they were used to doing, but there are other things that AI won't be able to do. And I thought that was pretty fascinating,   Jan Southern ** 30:34 exactly. Well, my my nephew is a long haul truck driver. He owns a company, and you know, nothing the AI will never be able to observe everything that's going on around the trucking and and you know, there's also the some of the things that that driver can do is those observations, plus they're Going to need people who are going to program those trucks as they are making their way across the country, and so I'm totally in agreement with what your friend said, or your you know, your guests had to say that many other things,   Michael Hingson ** 31:15 yeah, and it isn't necessarily even relating to driving, but there are certainly other things that they could be doing to continue to be efficient and effective, and no matter how good the autonomous driving capabilities are, it only takes that one time when for whatever reason, the intelligence can't do it, that it's good To have a driver available to to to to help. And I do believe that we're going to see the time when autonomous vehicles will be able to do a great job, and they will be able to observe most of all that stuff that goes on around them. But there's going to be that one time and that that happens. I mean, even with drivers in a vehicle, there's that one time when maybe something happens and a driver can't continue. So what happens? Well, the vehicle crashes, or there's another person to take over. That's why we have at least two pilots and airplanes and so on. So right, exactly aspects of it,   Jan Southern ** 32:21 I think so I can remember when I was in grade school, they showed us a film as to what someone's vision of the country was, and part of that was autonomous driving, you know. And so it was, it was interesting that we're living in a time where we're beginning to see that, yeah,   Michael Hingson ** 32:41 we're on the cusp, and it's going to come. It's not going to happen overnight, but it will happen, and we're going to find that vehicles will be able to drive themselves. But there's still much more to it than that, and we shouldn't be in too big of a hurry, although some so called profit making. People may decide that's not true, to their eventual chagrin, but we shouldn't be too quick to replace people with technology totally   Jan Southern ** 33:14 Exactly. We have cars in I think it's Domino's Pizza. I'm not sure which pizza company, but they have autonomous cars driving, and they're cooking the pizza in the back oven of the car while, you know, while it's driving to your location, yeah, but there's somebody in the car who gets out of the car and brings the pizza to my door.   Michael Hingson ** 33:41 There's been some discussion about having drones fly the pizza to you. Well, you know, we'll see,   Jan Southern ** 33:50 right? We'll see how that goes. Yeah,   Michael Hingson ** 33:53 I haven't heard that. That one is really, pardon the pun, flown well yet. But, you know, we'll see. So when you start a process, improvement process program, what are some of the first steps that you initiate to bring that about? Well, the first   Jan Southern ** 34:11 thing that we do, once we've got agreement with their leadership, then we have a meeting with the people who will be involved, who will be impacted, and we tell them all about what's happening, what's going to happen, and make certain that they're in full understanding. And you know, the first thing that you ever hear when you're saying that you're going to be doing a re engineering or process improvement is they think, Oh, you're just going to come in and tell me to reduce my staff, and that's the way I'm going to be more successful. We don't look at it that way at all. We look at it in that you need to be right. Have your staff being the right size, and so in in many cases, in my past. I we've added staff. We've told them, you're under staffed, but the first thing we do is hold that meeting, make certain that they're all in agreement with what's going to happen, explain to them how it's going to happen, and then the next step is that once management has decided who our counterparts will be within the company. Who's going to be working with us to introduce us to their staff members is we sit down with their staff members and we ask them questions. You know, what do you do? How do you do it? What do you Did someone bring it to you. Are you second in line or next in line for some task? And then once you finish with it, what happens to it? Do you give someone else? Is a report produced? Etc. And so once we've answered all of those questions, we do a little a mapping of the process. And once you map that process, then you take it back to the people who actually perform the process, and you ask them, Did I get this right? I heard you say, this? Is this a true depiction of what's happening? And so we make sure that they don't do four steps. And they told us steps number one and three, so that then, once we've mapped that out, that gives us an idea of two of how can things be combined? Can they be combined? Should you be doing what you're doing here? Is there a more efficient or cost effective way of doing it? And we make our recommendations based on that for each process that we're reviewing. Sometimes there's one or two good processes in an area that we're looking at. Sometimes there are hundreds. And so that's that's the basic process. And then once they've said yes, that is correct, then we make our recommendations. We take it back to their management, and hopefully they will include the people who actually are performing the actions. And we make our recommendations to make changes if, if, if it's correct, maybe they don't need to make any changes. Maybe everything is is very, very perfect the way it is. But in most cases, they brought us in because it's not and they've recognized it's not. So then once they've said, yes, we want to do this, then we help them to implement.   Michael Hingson ** 37:44 Who usually starts this process, that is, who brings you in?   Jan Southern ** 37:48 Generally, it is going to be, depending upon the size of the company, but in most cases, it's going to be the CEO. Sometimes it's the Chief Operating Officer. Sometimes in a very large company, it may be a department manager, you know, someone who has the authority to bring us in. But generally, I would say that probably 90% of our projects, it's at the C   Michael Hingson ** 38:19 level office. So then, based on everything that you're you're discussing, probably that also means that there has to be some time taken to convince management below the CEO or CEO or a department head. You've got to convince the rest of management that this is going to be a good thing and that you have their best interest at heart.   Jan Southern ** 38:43 That is correct, and that's primarily the reason that we have for our initial meeting. We ask whoever is the contract signer to attend that meeting and be a part of the discussion to help to ward off any objections, and then to really bring these people along if they are objecting. And for that very reason, even though they may still be objecting, we involve them in the implementation, so an implementation of a of a recommendation has to improve, has to include the validation. So we don't do the work, but we sit alongside the people who are doing the implementation and guide them through the process, and then it's really up to them to report back. Is it working as intended? If it's not, what needs to be changed, what might improve, what we thought would be a good recommendation, and we work with them to make certain that everything works for them. Right? And by the end of that, if they've been the tester, they've been the one who's approved steps along the way, we generally find that they're on board because they're the it's now. They're now the owners of the process. And when they have ownership on something that they've implemented. It's amazing how much more resilient they they think that the process becomes, and now it's their process and not ours.   Michael Hingson ** 40:32 Do you find most often that when you're working with a number of people in a company that most of them realize that there need to be some changes, or something needs to be improved to make the whole company work better. Or do you find sometimes there's just great resistance, and people say no, there's just no way anything is bad.   Jan Southern ** 40:53 Here we find that 90% of the time, and I'm just pulling that percentage out of the air, I would say they know, they know it needs to be changed. And the ones typically, not always, but typically, the ones where you find the greatest resistance are the ones who know it's broken, but they just don't want to change. You know, there are some people who don't want to change no matter what, or they feel threatened that. They feel like that a new and improved process might take their place. You know, might replace them. And that's typically not the case. It's typically not the case at all, that they're not replaced by it. Their process is improved, and they find that they can be much more productive. But the the ones who are like I call them the great resistors, usually don't survive the process either. They are. They generally let themselves go,   Michael Hingson ** 42:01 if you will, more ego than working for the company.   Jan Southern ** 42:05 Yes, exactly, you know, it's kind of like my mom, you know, and it they own the process as it was. We used to laugh and call this person Louise, you know, Louise has said, Well, we've always done it that way. You know, that's probably the best reason 20 years in not to continue to do it same way.   Michael Hingson ** 42:34 We talked earlier about John Floyd and evolution. And that makes perfect sense. Exactly what's one of the most important things that you have to do to prepare to become involved in preparing for a process, improvement project? I think   Jan Southern ** 42:52 the most important thing there's two very important things. One is to understand their culture, to know how their culture is today, so that you know kind of which direction you need to take them, if they're not in a continuous improvement environment, then you need to lead them in that direction if they're already there and they just don't understand what needs to be done. There's two different scenarios, but the first thing you need to do is understand the culture. The second thing that you need to do, other than the culture, is understand their their business. You need to know what they do. Of course, you can't know from the outside how they do it, but you need to know that, for instance, if it's an we're working with a company that cleans oil tanks and removes toxins and foul lines from oil and gas industry. And so if you don't understand at all what they do, it's hard to help them through the processes that they need to go through. And so just learning, in general, what their technology, what their business is about. If you walk in there and haven't done that, you're just blowing smoke. In my mind, you know, I do a lot of research on the technologies that they use, or their company in general. I look at their website, I you know, look at their LinkedIn, their social media and so. And then we request information from them in advance of doing a project, so that we know what their org structure looks like. And I think those things are critical before you walk in the door to really understand their business in general.   Michael Hingson ** 44:53 Yeah, and that, by doing that, you also tend to. To gain a lot of credibility, because you come in and demonstrate that you do understand what they're doing, and people respond well to that, I would think   Jan Southern ** 45:10 they do. You know, one of our most interesting projects in my past was the electric company that I mentioned. There was an electric company in Burlington, Vermont that did their own electric generation. We've never looked at anything like that. We're a bank consultant, and so we learned all about how they generated energy with wood chips and the, you know, the different things. And, you know, there were many days that I was out watching the wood chips fall out of a train and into their buckets, where they then transferred them to a yard where they moved the stuff around all the time. So, you know, it was, it's very interesting what you learn along the way. But I had done my homework, and I knew kind of what they did and not how they did it in individual aspects of their own processes, but I understood their industry. And so it was, you do walk in with some credibility, otherwise they're looking at you like, well, what does this person know about my job?   Michael Hingson ** 46:20 And at the same time, have you ever been involved in a situation where you did learn about the company you you went in with some knowledge, you started working with the company, and you made a suggestion about changing a process or doing something that no one had thought of, and it just clicked, and everybody loved it when they thought about it,   Jan Southern ** 46:42 yes, yes, exactly. And probably that electric company was one of those such things. You know, when they hired us, they they told us. We said, We don't know anything about your business. And they said, Good, we don't want you to come in with any preconceived ideas. And so some of the recommendations we made to them. They were, it's kind of like an aha moment. You know, they look at you like, Oh my gosh. I've never thought of that, you know, the same I would say in in banking and in family businesses, you know, they just, they've never thought about doing things in a certain way.   Michael Hingson ** 47:20 Can you tell us a story about one of those times?   Jan Southern ** 47:24 Yes, I would say that if you're, if you're talking about, let's talk about something in the banking industry, where they are. I was working in a bank, and you, you go in, and this was in the days before we had all of the ways to store things electronically. And so they were having a difficult time in keeping all of their documents and in place and knowing when to, you know, put them in a destruction pile and when not to. And so I would say that they had an aha moment when I said, Okay, let's do this. Let's get a bunch of the little colored dots, and you have big dots and small dots. And I said, everything that you put away for 1990 for instance, then you put on a purple dot. And then for January, you have 12 different colors of the little dots that you put in the middle of them. And you can use those things to determine that everything that has a purple dot and little yellow.in the middle of that one, you know that that needs to be destructed. I think in that case, it was seven years, seven years from now, you know that you need to pull that one off the shelf and put it into the pile to be destructed. And they said, we've never thought of anything. It was like I had told him that, you know, the world was going to be struck, to be gone, to begin tomorrow. Yeah, it was so simple to me, but it was something that they had never, ever thought of, and it solved. They had something like five warehouses of stuff, most of which needed to have been destroyed years before, yeah,   Michael Hingson ** 49:21 but still they weren't sure what, and so you gave them a mechanism to do that,   Jan Southern ** 49:27 right? Of course, that's all gone out the window today. You don't have to do all that manual stuff anymore. You're just, you know, I'd say another example of that was people who were when we began the system of digitizing the files, especially loan files in a bank. And this would hold true today as well, in that once you start on a project to digitize the files, there's a tendency to take the old. Files first and digitize those. Well, when you do that, before you get to the end of it, if you have a large project, you don't need those files anymore. So you know, our recommendation is start with your latest. You know, anything that needs to be archived, start with the newest, because by the time that you finish your project, some of those old files you won't even need to digitize, just shred them. Yeah, you know, it's, it's just little simple things like that that can make all the difference.   Michael Hingson ** 50:32 When should a family business start documenting processes? I think I know that's what I thought you'd say,   Jan Southern ** 50:40 yes, yes, that is something that is near and dear to my heart. Is that I would even recommend that you maybe do it before you open your doors, if potential is there, so that the day you open your business, you need to start with your documenting your processes, and you need to start on your succession planning. You know, those are the days that once you really start working, you're not going to have time. You know, you're going to be busy working every day. You're you're going to be busy servicing your customers, and that always gets pushed to the back when you start to document something, and so that's the time do it when you first open your doors.   Michael Hingson ** 51:29 So when we talk about processes, maybe it's a fair question to ask, maybe not. But what are we really talking about when we talk about processes and documenting processes? What are the processes?   Jan Southern ** 51:41 Well, the processes are the things that you do every day. Let's take as an example, just when you set up your your files within your SharePoint, or within your computer, if you don't use SharePoint, your Google files, how you set those up, a process could also be during your accounting, what's the process that you go through to get a invoice approved? You know, when the invoice comes in from the vendor, what do you do with it? You know, who has to approve it? Are there dollar amounts that you have to have approvals for? Or can some people just take in a smaller invoice and pay it without any any approvals? We like to see there be a process where it's approved before you get the invoice from the customer, where it's been approved at the time of the order. And that way it can be processed more more quickly on the backside, to just make sure that it says what the purchase order if you use purchase orders or see what your agreement was. So it's the it's the workflow. There's something that triggers an action, and then, once gets triggered, then what takes place? What's next, what's the next steps? And you just go through each one of the things that has to happen for that invoice to get paid, and the check or wire transfer, or or whatever you use as a payment methodology for it to go out the door. And so, you know what you what you do is you start, there's something that triggers it, and then there's a goal for the end, and then you fill in in the center,   Michael Hingson ** 53:38 and it's, it's, it's a fascinating I hate to use the word process to to listen to all of this, but it makes perfect sense that you should be documenting right from the outset about everything that you do, because it also means that you're establishing a plan so that everyone knows exactly what the expectations are and exactly what it is that needs to be done every step of the way,   Jan Southern ** 54:07 right and and one of the primary reasons for that is we can't anticipate life. You know, maybe our favorite person, Louise, is the only one who's ever done, let's say, you know, payroll processing, or something of that sort. And if something happens and Louise isn't able to come in tomorrow, who's going to do it? You know, without a map, a road map, as to the steps that need to be taken, how's that going to take place? And so that's that's really the critical importance. And when you're writing those processes and procedures, you need to make them so that anybody can walk in off the street, if necessary, and do what Louise was doing and have it done. Properly.   Michael Hingson ** 55:00 Of course, as we know, Louise is just a big complainer anyway. That's right, you said, yeah. Well, once you've made recommendations, and let's say they're put in place, then what do you do to continue supporting a business?   Jan Southern ** 55:20 We check in with them periodically, whatever is appropriate for them and and for the procedures that are there, we make sure that it's working for them, that they're being as prosperous as they want to be, and that our recommendations are working for them. Hopefully they'll allow us to come back in and and most do, and make sure that what we recommended is right and in is working for them, and if so, we make little tweaks with their approvals. And maybe new technology has come in, maybe they've installed a new system. And so then we help them to incorporate our prior recommendations into whatever new they have. And so we try to support them on an ongoing basis, if they're willing to do that, which we have many clients. I think Rob has clients he's been with for ever, since he opened his doors 15 years ago. So   Michael Hingson ** 56:19 of course, the other side of that is, I would assume sometimes you work with companies, you've helped them deal with processes and so on, and then you come back in and you know about technology that that they don't know. And I would assume then that you suggest that, and hopefully they see the value of listening to your wisdom.   Jan Southern ** 56:41 Absolutely, we find that a lot. We also if they've discovered a technology on their own, but need help with recommendations, as far as implementation, we can help them through that as well, and that's one of the reasons I'm taking this class in AI to be able to help our customers move into a realm where it's much more easily implemented if, if they already have the steps that we've put into place, you can feed that into an AI model, and it can make adjustments to what they're doing or make suggestions.   Michael Hingson ** 57:19 Is there any kind of a rule of thumb to to answer this question, how long does it take for a project to to be completed?   Jan Southern ** 57:26 You know, it takes, in all fairness, regardless of the size of the company, I would say that they need to allow six weeks minimum. That's for a small company with a small project, it can take as long as a year or two years, depending upon the number of departments and the number of people that you have to talk to about their processes. But to let's just take an example of a one, one single department in a company is looking at doing one of these processes, then they need to allow at least six weeks to for discovery, for mapping, for their people to become accustomed to the new processes and to make sure that the implementation has been tested and is working and and they're satisfied with everything that that is taking place. Six weeks is a very, very minimum, probably 90 days is a more fair assessment as to how long they should allow for everything to take place.   Michael Hingson ** 58:39 Do you find that, if you are successful with, say, a larger company, when you go in and work with one department and you're able to demonstrate success improvements, or whatever it is that that you define as being successful, that then other departments want to use your services as well?   Jan Southern ** 59:00 Yes, yes, we do. That's a very good point. Is that once you've helped them to help themselves, if you will, once you've helped them through that process, then they recognize the value of that, and we'll move on to another division or another department to do the same thing.   Michael Hingson ** 59:21 Word of mouth counts for a lot,   Jan Southern ** 59:24 doesn't it? Though, I'd say 90% of our business at Ferguson and company comes through referrals. They refer either through a center of influence or a current client who's been very satisfied with the work that we've done for them, and they tell their friends and networking people that you know. Here's somebody that you should use if you're considering this type of a project.   Michael Hingson ** 59:48 Well, if people want to reach out to you and maybe explore using your services in Ferguson services, how do they do that?   Jan Southern ** 59:55 They contact they can. If they want to contact me directly, it's Jan. J, a n, at Ferguson dash alliance.com and that's F, E, R, G, U, S, O, N, Dash alliance.com and they can go to our website, which is the same, which is Ferguson dash alliance.com One thing that's very, very good about our our website is, there's a page that's called resources, and there's a lot of free advice, if you will. There's a lot of materials there that are available to family owned businesses, specifically, but any business could probably benefit from that. And so those are free for you to be able to access and look at, and there's a lot of blog information, free eBook out there, and so that's the best way to reach Ferguson Alliance.   Michael Hingson ** 1:00:52 Well, cool. Well, I hope people will take all of this to heart. You certainly offered a lot of interesting and I would say, very relevant ideas and thoughts about dealing with processes and the importance of having processes. For several years at a company, my wife was in charge of document control and and not only doc control, but also keeping things secure. Of course, having the sense of humor that I have, I pointed out nobody else around the company knew how to read Braille, so what they should really do is put all the documents in Braille, then they'd be protected, but nobody. I was very disappointed. Good idea   Speaker 2 ** 1:01:36 that is good idea that'll keep them safe from everybody. Yeah.   Michael Hingson ** 1:01:39 Well, I want to thank you for being here, and I want to thank to thank all of you for listening today. We've been doing this an hour. How much fun. It is fun. Well, I appreciate it, and love to hear from all of you about today's episode. Please feel free to reach out to me. You can email me at Michael H i@accessibe.com or go to our podcast page. Michael hingson, M, I, C, H, A, E, L, H, I N, G, s, O, n.com/podcast, but wherever you're listening, please give us a five star rating. We value your thoughts and your opinions, and I hope that you'll tell other people about the podcasts as well. This has been an interesting one, and we try to make them all kind of fun and interesting, so please tell others about it. And if anyone out there listening knows of anyone who ought to be a guest, Jan, including you, then please feel free to introduce us to anyone who you think ought to be a guest on unstoppable mindset. Because I believe everyone has a story to tell, and I want to get as many people to have the opportunity to tell their stories as we can. So I hope that you'll all do that and give us reviews and and stick with us. But Jan, again, I want to thank you for being here. This has been a lot of fun.   Jan Southern ** 1:02:51 It has been a lot of fun, and I certainly thank you for inviting me.   Michael Hingson ** 1:03:00 You have been listening to the Unstoppable Mindset podcast. Thanks for dropping by. I hope that you'll join us again next week, and in future weeks for upcoming episodes. To subscribe to our podcast and to learn about upcoming episodes, please visit www dot Michael hingson.com slash podcast. Michael Hingson is spelled m i c h a e l h i n g s o n. While you're on the site., please use the form there to recommend people who we ought to interview in upcoming editions of the show. And also, we ask you and urge you to invite your friends to join us in the future. If you know of any one or any organization needing a speaker for an event, please email me at speaker at Michael hingson.com. I appreciate it very much. To learn more about the concept of blinded by fear, please visit www dot Michael hingson.com forward slash blinded by fear and while you're there, feel free to pick up a copy of my free eBook entitled blinded by fear. The unstoppable mindset podcast is provided by access cast an initiative of accessiBe and is sponsored by accessiBe. Please visit www.accessibe.com . AccessiBe is spelled a c c e s s i b e. There you can learn all about how you can make your website inclusive for all persons with disabilities and how you can help make the internet fully inclusive by 2025. Thanks again for Listening. Please come back and visit us again next week.

Our analysts Ariana Salvatore and Erin Wright explain the pivotal role of healthcare in negotiations to end the government shutdown.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Erin Wright: And I'm Erin Wright, U.S. Healthcare Services Analyst. Ariana Salvatore: Today we'll talk about what the U.S. government shutdown means for healthcare. It's Thursday, October 30th at 12pm in New York. Thus far, it seems like markets haven't really been paying too much attention to the government shutdown. Obviously, we're aware of the cumulative economic impact that builds every week that it lasts. But we haven't seen any movement from the political front either this week or last, which signals that it could be going on for a while longer. That being said, the end of this month is an important catalyst for a few reasons. First of all, you have the potential rollover of SNAP benefits. You have another potential missed military paycheck. And most importantly, the open enrollment period for healthcare plans. Polling is still showing neither side coming out on top with a clear advantage. Absent that changing, you probably need to see one of two things happen to have any movement forward on this front. Either more direct involvement from President Trump as he wraps up the APEC meeting or some sort of exogenous economic event, like a strike from air traffic controllers. Those types of events obviously are difficult to predict this far in advance. But up until now we know that President Trump has not really been involved in the debate. And the FAA seems to be operating a little bit with delays, but as usual. So, Erin, let's pivot to what's topical in here from a healthcare policy perspective. What are investors that you speak with paying the most attention to? Erin Wright: You bring up some important points Ariana. But from a policy perspective, it's very much an always top of mind for healthcare investors here. Right now, it is a key negotiating factor when it comes to the government shutdown. So, the shutdown debate is predominantly centered around the Affordable Care Act or the healthcare exchanges. This was a part of Obamacare. It was a program where individuals can purchase standalone health insurance through an exchange marketplace.The program has been wildly popular. It's been wildly popular in recent years with 24 million members. Growing 30 per cent last year, particularly with enhanced subsidies that are being offered today. So those subsidies are expected to expire at the end of this year, and those exchange members could be left with some real sticker shock – especially when we're going to see premium increases that could, on average, increase about 25 to 30 percent, in some states even more. So, folks are really starting to see that now. November 1st will be a key date here as open enrollment period begins. Ariana Salvatore: Right. So, as you mentioned, this is pretty key to the entire shutdown debate. Republicans are in favor of letting the expanded subsidies roll off. Democrats want to restore them to that COVID level enhancement. Of course, there's probably some middle path here, and we have seen some background reporting indicating that lawmakers are talking about a potential middle path or concession. So, talk me through what's on the table in terms of negotiating a potential compromise or extension of these subsidies. Erin Wright: So, we could see a permutation of outcomes here. Maybe we don't get a full extension, but we could see something partial come through. We could see something in terms of income caps, which restrict, kind of, the level of participants in the AC exchanges. You could see out-of-pocket minimums, which would eliminate some of those shadow members that we've been seeing and have been problematic across the space. And then you could also grandfather in some existing members that get subsidies today. So, all of those could offer some degrees of positive. And some degrees of relief when it comes to broader healthcare services, when it comes to insurance companies, when it comes to others that are participating in this program, as well as the individuals themselves. So, it's really a patient dynamic that's getting real here. A lot is on the table, but a lot is at stake with the potential for the sunsetting of these subsidies to drive 4 million in uninsured lives. So, it is meaningful, and I think that that's something we have to kind of put into perspective here.So, would love to know Ariana though, beyond healthcare, what are some of those key debates in terms of the negotiations around the shutdown? Ariana Salvatore: Healthcare really is central to this debate. So aside from just the ACA subsidies that we talked about, some Democrats have also been pushing for a repeal or rollback of some of the pieces of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that passed earlier this year. That was the fiscal bill of Republicans passed through the reconciliation process – that included some cuts to Medicaid down the line. So, there's been talk around that front. I think more of a clear path on the subsidies front, because that seems to be something that Republicans are treating as an absolute no-go. Some of the other really key debates are around just kind of how to keep the ball rolling while we're still in the shutdown. So, I mentioned SNAP at first, the potential release of some contingency funds there. Again, the military paychecks are really critical. And, of course, what this all means for incoming data, which is really important – not just for investors but also for the Fed, as it kind of calibrate[s] their next move. In particular, as we head into the December meeting. I think we got a little bit of a hawkish surprise in yesterday's meeting, and that's something that investors were not expecting. So, obviously the longer that this goes on, the more those risks just continue to grow, and this deadline that we're talking about is a really critical one. It's coming up soon. So we should have a sense of how our prognosis pans out in the coming days. Thanks for the conversation, Erin. Erin Wright: Great talking to you, Ariana. Ariana Salvatore: And to our audience, thanks for listening. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review wherever you listen. And if you like Thoughts on the Market, tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by Mike Wilson, CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley. They discuss the complexities of the current market landscape, including key topics such as the impact of the Fed's recent rate cuts, the significance of US-China relations, and the importance of Nvidia in the market. The conversation also delves into the broader economic strategies being employed, including deregulation, the rebalancing of the economy, and the implications of small business growth. Mike shares his thoughts on potential inflation, wage growth, and the future of energy and healthcare sectors. The discussion highlights indicators of potential market corrections, the risks associated with AI investment, and the evolving nature of financial markets. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

There are things I've never said on this podcast… not because they're secrets, but because no one's ever asked. Today, I'm going to open that door, and my hope is that in hearing my answers, you'll think differently about your own. Some of these questions come from curiosity, some from criticism… But all of them crack open a piece of where I'm at right now, and where I'm going next. So let's go “off script” together, shall we? Click play to hear the 10 questions, and my answers that may surprise you! Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/questions-I-wish-you-asked    Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Shop SKIMS Fits Everybody collection at http://skims.com/goaldigger! Create your sanctuary of comfort with Boll & Branch. Get 20% off your first sheet set plus free shipping at https://www.bollandbranch.com/goaldigger. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Visit http://www.mercury.com/ to apply online in 10 minutes. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why the recent revival of M&A activity has room to accelerate.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today – a discussion of merger and acquisition activity or M&A. Last year, we had a view that this activity would pick up significantly. We think we're seeing that increase now. It has further to go. It's Wednesday, October 29th at 2pm in London. We have been firm believers at Morgan Stanley in a significant multi-year uplift in global merger and acquisition activity or M&A. That conviction remains. The incentives for this type of action are strong in our view; activity still lags what fundamentals would suggest, and supportive regulatory shifts are real. M&A has now returned, and importantly, we think there's much further to go. Indeed, M&A is very closely linked to corporate confidence, and we think investors need to consider the possibility that we'll see an even bigger surge in this confidence – or a boom. First, policy uncertainty is declining as U.S. tax legislation has now passed, and tariff rates get finalized. It's the relative direction of this uncertainty that we think matters most for corporate confidence. Second, interest rates are declining with the Fed, European Central Bank, and Bank of England all set to cut rates further over the next 12 months. Third, bank capital requirements may decline in the view of Morgan Stanley analysts, which would unlock more lending for these types of transactions. Fourth, and very importantly, the regulatory backdrop is becoming more accommodative in both the U.S. and in Europe. Indeed, we think that companies may think that this is going to be the most permissive regulatory window for transactions that they might get for some time. Fifth, private equity, which is a big driver of M&A activity, is sitting on over $4 trillion of dry powder in our view – at a time when credit markets look very wide open for financing their transactions. And finally, we're seeing a surge in capital expenditure on Morgan Stanley estimates, which we see as a sign of rising corporate confidence, and importantly an urgency to act – with corporates far less content to simply sit back and repurchase their stock. All of these favorable conditions together argue for activity to push even higher. We forecast global M&A volumes to increase by 32 percent this year, an additional 20 percent next year, and reach $7.8 trillion in volume in 2027. This is a global story with M&A rising across regions, especially in Japan. It has cross-asset implications with M&A already being one of the biggest drivers of bond outperformance within the U.S. high-yield market. And this is also a story where we see a lot of value in bringing together macro and micro perspectives. While we think the top-down conditions look favorable for all the reasons I just mentioned, we also see a very encouraging picture bottom up. We polled a large number of Morgan Stanley sector analyst teams and asked them about M&A conditions in their sector. A large majority of them see more activity. So, where could these more specific implications lie? Well, as you heard on yesterday's episode, Healthcare and Biotech may see an uptick in activity. In the U.S., we also think that Banking and Media stand out. In Europe, Business Services, Metals and Mining, and Telecom seem most ripe for more M&A. Aerospace and Defense is an interesting sector that may see more M&A within multiple regions, including the U.S. and Europe, as companies look for scale. And with smaller companies trading at a valuation discount to their larger peers across the world, Morgan Stanley analysts generally see the strongest case for activity in larger companies acquiring these smaller ones. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Today, we're joined by Mark Crandall, one of the founding fathers of the modern trading house and the commodities sector as we know it today. Mark started his career at Morgan Stanley, where he helped launch its commodities desk, before joining Marc Rich & Co. Mark went on the have a pivotal role in, and ring-side seat to, the machinations that lead to the founding of Glencore and Trafigura. In Part 1, we cover his early career leading up to the famous split at Marc Rich & Co. We discuss the rise of the Wall Street Refiners and what made Marc Rich special and the company he founded shape the industry even today.

Our U.S. Biotech and Biopharma analysts Sean Laaman and Terence Flynn discuss the latest developments that could be positioning the healthcare sector for strong outperformance.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Sean Laaman: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Sean Laaman, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Small and Mid-Cap Biotech Analyst. Terence Flynn: And I'm Terence Flynn, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Biopharma Analyst. Sean Laaman: Today, we'll discuss how a rally in the healthcare sector is being driven by more favorable macro conditions. It's Tuesday, October 28th at 10am in New York. So, Terence, healthcare has lagged the broader market year-to-date, and valuations have been near historical lows. But recent weeks show strengthening performance. Policy headwinds have been front and center.What's changed in the regulatory environment and how is the biopharma sector adapting to these pricing and tariff dynamics? Terence Flynn: Sean, as you know, with many other sectors, tariffs were initially a focus earlier this year. But a number of companies in our space have subsequently announced significant U.S. manufacturing investments to reshore supply chains. And hence, the market's less focused on tariffs in our space right now. But the other policy dynamic and focus is what's called Most Favored Nation or MFN drug pricing. Now, this is where the President's been focused on aligning U.S. drug prices with those in other developed countries. And recently we've seen several companies announce agreements with the administration along these lines, which importantly has provided investors with more visibility here. And we're watching to see if additional agreements get announced. Sean Laaman: Got it. Another hurdle for Large-cap biopharma is a looming expiration of patents with [$]177 billion exposed by 2030. How is this shaping M&A trends and strategic priorities? Terence Flynn: For sure. I mean, as you know, Sean, patent expiry is our normal part of the life cycle of drug development. Every company goes through this at some point, but this does put the focus on company's internal pipelines to continue to progress while also being able to access external innovation via M&A. Recently we have started to see a pickup in deal activity, which could bode well for performance in SMID-cap biotech. Sean Laaman: At the same time, you believe relative valuations look compelling for Large-cap biopharma. Where are valuations versus where they've been historically? What's driving this and how should investors think about positioning? Terence Flynn: Absolutely. Look, on a price to earnings multiple, the sector's trading at about a 30 percent discount to the S&P 500 right now. Now that's in line with prior periods of policy uncertainty. But as policy visibility improves, we expect the focus will shift back to fundamentals. Now, positioning to me still feels light here, given some of the patent cliff dynamics we just discussed. Now, Sean, with the Fed moving toward rate cuts, how do you see this impacting your sector on the biotech side? Sean Laaman: Well, Terence, particularly in my space, which is Small- and Mid-cap biotech companies, they're typically capital consumers are not capital producers. They're particularly sensitive to the current rate environment.Therefore, they're sensitive to spending on pipeline. They're sensitive to M&A. So, as rates come down, we expect more spending on pipeline and more M&A activity, which is generally positive for the sector. Looking forward, biotech sector is generally the best performing sector on a six-to-12-month timeframe post the first rate cut. Terence Flynn: Great. You've also talked about this SMID to Big thesis on the biotech side. Can you explain what's driving that? Sean Laaman: Sure Terence. There's three pieces to the SMID to Big thematic. So, we in SMID-cap biotech, we cover 80 to 90 companies. About a third of those are newly, kind of profitable companies. Those companies are turning from being capital consumers to capital producers. We see about $15 billion of cash on balance sheets for 2025, going to north of 130 billion by 2030. That's the first piece. The second piece is due to regulatory uncertainty at the USFDA. We're seeing more attractive valuations amongst clinical stage names. That's the second piece. And third piece relates to your coverage, Terence. I refer back to that [$]177 billion of LOE. So, we expect generally that M&A activity will be quite high amongst our sector. Terence Flynn: And let's not forget about AI, which has implications across the healthcare space. How much is this changing the dynamic in biotech, Sean? Sean Laaman: It is changing, but we're really at the beginning. I think there's three things to think about. The first one is faster trial recruitment. The second one is faster regulatory submissions. And the third one, which is the most interesting, but we're really at the beginning of, is faster time to appropriately targeted molecules. Terence Flynn: Great. And maybe lastly, what are the key risks and catalysts for SMID-cap biotech in the current environment? Sean Laaman: As always, we're focused on pipeline failures in terms of risk. Secondly, in terms of risk, we're looking at regulatory risk at the FDA. And thirdly, we're looking at the rise in China biotech and the competitive dynamic there.Whether you're watching large cap biopharma, M&A moves, or the rise of cash-rich, SMID-cap biotechs, the healthcare sector setup is unlike anything we've seen in years.Terence, thanks for speaking with me. Terence Flynn: Always a pleasure to be on the show. Thanks for having me, Sean. Sean Laaman: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Crypto has spent years obsessing over tokens, airdrops, and speculation. But what about the unsexy businesses actually making money? Arthur Hayes and Adam Schlegel join Laura Shin to talk about Maelstrom's $250M private equity fund targeting crypto's most profitable, yet overlooked, companies, $50M revenue businesses with 50% margins that VCs can't touch and exchanges won't pay cash for. But while everyone frames this as just another fund, Hayes and Schlegel argue it's actually the missing piece in crypto's maturation: a cash buyer for founders who've done their time and want out without four-year earnouts.  Plus: Why Asian crypto companies with monster margins get ignored by Western capital. Thank you to our sponsors! Binance Guests: Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO at Maelstrom Adam Schlegel, Head of Private Equity at Maelstrom Links: Previous appearances on Unchained: The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes & Tom Lee; Hyperliquid vs Aster, DATs & ETH Arthur Hayes and Hanson Birringer on Hyperliquid's Success (And What Could Stop It) Bloomberg: Arthur Hayes' Family Office Seeks $250M for Buyout Fund Coindesk: Arthur Hayes' Maelstrom Seeks $250M Private Equity Fund to Acquire Crypto Firms: Bloomberg Akshat's tweet announcing the fund Timestamps:

We've all been fed the idea that “more is more” when it comes to growing your brand… but what if doing less is actually the key to unlocking your next level? Mei Pak is the founder of Creative Hive, and she's built multiple 7-figure handmade businesses while completely ditching the hustle mentality. She started out making just $3/hour in her first year of business, but after shifting her strategy and simplifying her approach, she went on to build thriving businesses without relying on Etsy or social media. In today's conversation, we're pulling back the curtain on what it really looks like to grow your handmade or product-based business without burning out. You'll learn how to streamline your marketing, get visible in ways that actually work, and finally let go of the pressure to do all the things. So if you've been stuck in content creation chaos or spinning your wheels trying to get noticed, this episode is your permission slip to simplify and still succeed. Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/how-to-make-sales-without-social-media  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Shop SKIMS Fits Everybody collection at http://skims.com/goaldigger! Create your sanctuary of comfort with Boll & Branch. Get 20% off your first sheet set plus free shipping at https://www.bollandbranch.com/goaldigger. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Visit http://www.mercury.com/ to apply online in 10 minutes. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses the outlook for stocks after the preliminary U.S.-China trade agreement and ahead of the Fed meeting and big tech earnings.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the remaining hurdles for equities after what appears to be a preliminary trade deal with China.It's Monday, October 27th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Over the past few weeks, trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalated once again focused on rare earths and technology transfers with each country playing its strongest card. Over the weekend, it appears that we have at least a preliminary agreement to de-escalate these tensions which means avoiding prohibitively high tariffs that were scheduled to go on at the end of this month. While we don't have many details on what has been agreed to, it appears that critical rare earths will continue to ship to the U.S. while technology transfer restrictions by the U.S. to China will ease. Presumably, Fentanyl tariffs of 20 percent on China are likely to be part of any broader agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi, if they end up meeting at the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.Given the sharp sell-off in stocks a few weeks ago on the news of trade tensions re-escalating, it's not surprising that stocks are rallying sharply this morning on news of a possible deal from last week's talks. Our attention now turns to the other big events this week. First, the Federal Reserve is meeting tomorrow and Wednesday to decide its next move on monetary policy. There is a broad consensus view that the Fed will cut another 25 basis points but there are very different views about how they will address its balance sheet run-off known as quantitative tightening, or QT. Based on my conversations, there is a growing consensus view for the Fed to announce the end of QT but uncertainty around the timing. Our house view is for the Fed to wait until the January meeting to make this official with an end of the program in February. Others believe the Fed could announce something as early as this week. That dispersion in expectations does create some room for disappointment from markets, especially given the recent increase in funding market spreads. More specifically, the widening in spreads suggests banking reserves may already be too low and restrictive for the pick-up in economic activity and capital spending that requires more liquidity. Second, earnings revision breadth has rolled over sharply the past few weeks. Most of this decline is due to normal seasonality and the fact that revisions breadth had reached unsustainably high levels since bottoming out in April. Therefore, a reset should be expected as we previewed over a month ago. Nevertheless, it needs to stabilize and push higher again for stocks to continue their advance in my view. Perhaps most importantly for the S&P 500 is the fact that all of the hyperscalers are reporting this week and will likely determine if revision breadth rebounds. It will also be important to see how those stocks react to what is likely to be continued aggressive guidance on AI capex plans. Since April, the hyperscaler stocks have rewarded higher guidance on spending. Should that change, we may see a different tone to how these companies discuss their spending plans. Bottom line, I remain bullish on my 12 month view for U.S. stocks based on what I believe will be better and broader growth in earnings next year. Nevertheless, the near term window remains a bit cloudy on trade, Fed policy shifts and earnings revisions breadth. Stay patient with new capital deployment and look to take advantage of downdrafts when they arise like a few weeks ago. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

What if your life ran like your business? What if you had streamlined workflows, clear responsibilities, and built-in rest and rhythm not just in your work, but in your actual daily life? As an entrepreneur with ADHD, I've spent years building incredible systems in my business. Launch calendars run like clockwork. Podcast workflows practically manage themselves. My business hums like a well-oiled machine. But at home? Pure chaos. That is, until my friend Natalie Ellis introduced me to the concept of a "life operating system," and it completely changed my perspective. What if we borrowed what's working in our businesses and applied it to our real lives? Click play to find out how I did it, and you can too! Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/adhd-home-organization-systems  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Shop SKIMS Fits Everybody collection at http://skims.com/goaldigger! Create your sanctuary of comfort with Boll & Branch. Get 20% off your first sheet set plus free shipping at https://www.bollandbranch.com/goaldigger. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Visit http://www.mercury.com/ to apply online in 10 minutes. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.

Ever bought something you loved so much, you had to tell your friends about it? What if your entire business could be built around that kind of energy; where your customers don't just shop, they stick around, support one another, and become your brand's loudest cheerleaders? That's exactly what Bianca Gates has done as the founder and president of Birdies, the stylish-yet-comfy footwear brand that's built a cult following. What started in Bianca's living room has grown into a brand loved by women everywhere… not just because of the product, but because of the feeling it gives you. Connection. Confidence. Community. In this conversation, we're talking about the real story behind Birdies' growth. How Bianca built a community-first brand from day one, how authentic storytelling shaped Birdies' success, and how you can apply her approach to your own business—even if you're starting from scratch or feel like you're late to the game. So if you've ever wondered how to rally people around your product and create a movement, not just a moment, this episode is for you. Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/how-to-build-a-support-circle  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Shop SKIMS Fits Everybody collection at http://skims.com/goaldigger! Create your sanctuary of comfort with Boll & Branch. Get 20% off your first sheet set plus free shipping at https://www.bollandbranch.com/goaldigger. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Visit http://www.mercury.com/ to apply online in 10 minutes. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.