Podcasts about Morgan Stanley

With Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference underway, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets joins Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur to discuss private credit, M&A activity and AI infrastructure.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan StanleyVishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Andrew Sheets: Today, as we're hosting the Morgan Stanley European Leveraged Finance Conference, a discussion of three of the biggest topics on the minds of credit investors worldwide.It's Thursday, October 16th at 4pm in London.Vishy, it's so great to catch up with you here in London. I know you've been running around the world, quite literally, talking to investors about some of the biggest debates in credit – and that's exactly what we wanted to talk. We're here at Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference. We're talking with investors about the biggest debates, the biggest developments in credit markets, and there are really kind of three topics that stand out.There's what's going on with private credit? What's going on with the merger and acquisition, the M&A cycle? And how are we going to fund all of this AI infrastructure?And so maybe I'll throw the first question to you. We hear a lot about private credit, and so maybe just for the listener who's looking at a lot of different things. First, how do you define it? What are we really talking about when we're talking about private credit?Vishy Tirupattur: So, Andrew, when we talk about private credit, the most common understanding of private credit is lending by non-banks to small and medium sized companies. And we probably will discuss a bit later that this definition is actually expanding much beyond this narrow definition. So, when you think about private credit and spend time understanding what is the credit in private credit, what it boils down to is on average, on a leveraged basis, the credit in private credit is comparable to, say CCC to B - on a coverage basis to the public markets.So, the credits in the private credit market are weaker. But on the other hand, the quality of covenants in these deals is significantly better compared to the public credit markets. So, that's the credit in private credit.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, with that in mind then, what is the concern in this market? Or conversely, where do people see the opportunity?Vishy Tirupattur: So, the concern in this market comes from the opaqueness in these deals. Many of these private credit borrowers are not public filers. So not much is well known about what the underlying details are. But in a sense, a good part of the public markets, whether it's in high yield bonds or in the public, broadly syndicated leveraged loans are also not public filers. So, there is information asymmetry in those markets as well.So, the issue is not the opaqueness of private markets, but opaqueness in credit in general. But that said, when you look at the metrics of leverage, coverage, cash on balance sheet…Andrew Sheets: Because we can get some kind of high-level sense of what is in these portfolios...Vishy Tirupattur: Yeah. And we look at all those metrics, and we look at a wide range of metrics. We don't get to the conclusion that we are at a precipice of some systemic risk exposure in credit. On the other hand, there are idiosyncratic issues. And these idiosyncratic issues have always been there and will remain there. And we would expect that the default rates are sticky around these levels, which are slightly above the long-term average levels, and we expect that to remain.Andrew Sheets: So, you may see more dispersion within these portfolios. These are weaker, more cyclical, more levered companies. But overall, this is not something that we think at the moment is going to interrupt the credit cycle or the broader markets dynamic.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. That is exactly where we come down to.So, Andrew, let me throw another question back at you. There's a lot of talk of growing M&A, growing LBO activity. And that could potentially lead to some challenges on the credit front. How do you look at it?Andrew Sheets: So, I'd like to actually build upon your answer from private credit, right? Because I think a lot of the questions that we're getting from investors are around this question of how far along in this always, kind of, cyclical process; ebb and flow of lending aggressiveness are we? And, you know, this is a cycle that goes back a hundred years – of lenders becoming more conservative and tighter with lending. And then as times get good, they become somewhat looser. And initially that's fine. And then eventually something, something happens.And so, I think we've seen the development of new markets like private credit that have opened up new lending opportunities and then also new questions. And I think we've also seen this question come up around M&A and corporate activity.And as we start to see headlines of very large leveraged buyouts or LBOs, as we start to see more merger and acquisition – M&A – activity coming back; something we've at Morgan Stanley been believers in. Are we really starting to see the things that we saw in the year 2000, or in the year 2007, when you saw very active capital markets actually coinciding with kind of near the peak of equity markets near the top of major market cycles.And in short, we do not think we're there yet. If we look at the actual volumes that we're seeing, we're actually a little bit below average in terms of corporate activity. There's really been a dearth of corporate activity after COVID. We're still catching up. Secondly, the big transactions that we're seeing are still more conservatively structured, which isn't usually what you see right at the end. And so, I think between these two things with still a lot of supportive factors for more corporate activity, we think we have further to go.Vishy Tirupattur: On that point, Andrew, I think if you look at the LBOs that are happening today versus the LBOs that happened in the 2007 era, the equity contribution is dramatically different. You know, equity to debt, these LBOs that are happening today [are] of a substantially higher amount of equity contribution compared to the LBOs we saw pre-Financial Crisis…Andrew Sheets: That's such a great point. And the listener may not know this, but Vishy and I were working together at Morgan Stanley prior to the Financial Crisis, and we were working in credit research when a lot of these LBOs were happening, and…Vishy Tirupattur: And I used to be tall and good looking.Andrew Sheets: (laughs) And they were just very different. We're still not there. If you go back and pull the numbers, you're looking at transactions still that are far more conservative than what we saw then. So, you know, this activity is cyclical, and I think we do have to watch deregulation, right? You saw a lot of regulations come in after the Financial Crisis that led to more conservative lending. If those regulations get rolled back, we could really move back towards more aggressive lending. But we haven't quite seen that yet.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely not.Andrew Sheets: And Vishy, maybe the third question that comes up a lot. We've covered private credit, which is very topical. We've covered kind of corporate aggressiveness. But maybe the icing on the cake. The biggest question is AI – and is AI spending?And it just feels like every day you come into the office and there's another headline on CNBC or Bloomberg about another mega AI funding deal. And the question is, okay, where's all that money going to come from?And maybe some of it comes from these companies themselves. They're very profitable, but credit might have to fill in some of the gaps. And you and some of our colleagues have done a lot of work on this. Where do you think kind of the lending story and the borrowing story fits into this broader AI theme?Vishy Tirupattur: Our estimate of simply data center related CapEx requirements are close to $3 trillion. You add the power required for the data centers and add another $300-400 billion. So, a lot of this CapEx will come from – roughly about half might come from the operating cash flows of the hyperscalers. But the rest, so [$]1.5 trillion plus, has to come through various channels of credit.So, unsecured corporate credit, we think will play a fairly small role in this. Of that [$]1.5 trillion plus, maybe [$]200 billion to come from unsecured credit issuance by these hyperscalers, and perhaps some of the securitized markets, such as ABS and CMBS that rely on stabilized cash flows may be another 1[$]50 billion. But a different version of private credit, what we will call ABF or asset based finance, will play a very big role. So north of [$]800 billion we think will come from that kind of a private credit version of investment grade, or a private credit markets developing. So, this market is very much in the developmental mode.So, one way or the other, for AI to go from where it is today to substantially improving productivity and the earnings of companies that has to go through CapEx; and that CapEx needs to go through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: And I think that is so fascinating because, right Vishy, so much of the spending is still ahead of us. It hasn't even really started, if you look at the numbers.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. We are in the early stages of this CapEx cycle. We should expect to see a lot more CapEx and that CapEx train has to run through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, there's obviously a lot of history in financial markets of larger CapEx booms, and some of them work out well, and some of them don't. I mean, if you are trying to think about some of the dynamics of this funding for AI and data centers more broadly versus some of these other CapEx cycles that investors might be familiar with. Are there some similar dynamics and some key differences that you try to keep in mind?Vishy Tirupattur: So, in terms of similarities, you know, they're big numbers, whichever way you cut it, these numbers are going to be big dollar numbers.But there are substantial differences between the most recent CapEx boom that we saw towards the end of the late 90s, early 2000s; we saw a massive telecom boom, telecom related CapEx. The big difference is that spending was done by – predominantly by companies that had put debt on their balance sheet. They were already very leveraged. They were just barely investment grade or some below investment grade companies with not much cash on their balance sheet.And you contrast that with today's world, much of this is being done by highly rated companies; the hyperscalers or between, you know, A+ to AAA rated companies, with a lot of cash on their balance sheets and with very little outstanding debt on their part.On top of that, the kind of channels that exist today, you know, data center, ABS and CMBS, asset-based finance, joint venture kind of financing. All of these channels were simply not available back then. And the fact that they all are available today means that this risk of CapEx is actually much more widely distributed.So that makes me feel a lot better about the evolution of this CapEx cycle compared to the most recent one we saw.Andrew Sheets: Private credit, a rise in M&A and a very active funding market for AI. Three big topics that are defining the credit debate today. Vishy, thanks for taking the time to talk.Vishy Tirupattur: Andrew, always fun to hang with youAndrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us review wherever you listen and tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Frank and Rob dive into:• Rob's path from UBS and Morgan Stanley to launching NewEdge Wealth.• How NewEdge Wealth and NewEdge Advisors differ and advisor profiles that may fit each platform.• How multi-custody and open architecture models can offer flexibility.• Perspectives of some advisors that have experienced business growth after joining the firm.•  The role of private equity and its innovation in wealth management.• How advisors may use niche marketing strategies and referral initiatives to identify opportunities.Whether you're exploring alternatives to a wirehouse or staying informed on industry developments, this conversation offers a practical look at the choices and trade-offs within today's independent landscape.Want to connect?Reach out to Frank directly at frank@eliteconsultingpartners.com or send him a DM on LinkedIn.You can also connect with Rob by emailing RSechan@NewEdgeCG.com or visiting his LinkedIn page.“Assets “serviced by” the firm includes (i) client assets for which we provide investment advisory services, (ii) client assets for which we provide brokerage services through our affiliate, NewEdge Securities, LLC and (iii) client assets held at affiliated and unaffiliated broker dealers for which we provide supervisory oversight, support services and/or wealth strategy services.Opinions expressed are as of October 7, 2025, and may change without notice. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation regarding any security, strategy, or business relationship. Past performance does not guarantee future results.References to advisor experiences (including business growth, win rates, or referrals) reflect individual circumstances and are not representative of all advisors or outcomes. Results vary and are not guaranteed.Any testimonials or endorsements presented reflect the speaker's opinion at the time made. If compensation or other benefits were provided in connection with a testimonial or endorsement, that fact will be disclosed. Such statements should not be construed as indicative of future performance or experience for all clients or advisors.Third-party firms, custodians, platforms, or services referenced are independent of NewEdge. Their inclusion does not constitute a recommendation, endorsement, or approval. Where third-party ratings or rankings are cited, the source and date apply; methodologies may differ, and ratings may not predict future performance. NewEdge may have business arrangements with certain third parties that present potential conflicts of interest; details available upon request.NewEdge may receive or provide referrals to or from third parties, including custodians, which may involve compensation or other benefits. Additional information about referral relationships and compensation is available upon request, A copy of the NewEdge's current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request or at www.newedgecg.com.All company names, logos, and trademarks are property of their respective owners and are used for identification only. References to media appearances do not constitute an endorsement.

En este episodio de El Brieff, analizamos la aprobación polémica de la reforma a la Ley de Amparo en México, centrada en la retroactividad encubierta y su impacto legal y social. También abordamos la reforma a la Ley Aduanera que moderniza controles y pospone su entrada en vigor a 2026. En otras noticias, seguimos la extensión del paro en el SAT entre divisiones y amenazas; la reunión del canciller mexicano con Marco Rubio sin tratar revocación de visas; y la autorización de Trump para operaciones encubiertas de la CIA en Venezuela. Además, destacamos la megacomprade BlackRock y Nvidia, el fuerte desempeño de Morgan Stanley y el repunte de LVMH en China. Cerramos con avances de Waymo en taxis autónomos y noticias internacionales relevantes. Tu dosis estratégica diaria en 10 minutos.Recibe gratis nuestro newsletter con las noticias más importantes del día.Si te interesa una mención en El Brieff, escríbenos a arturo@strtgy.ai Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Everyone's wrong about podcasting. They're telling you it's too saturated, too late, too hard. But here's what they don't know: 91% of podcasts are basically dead. While everyone's scared to start, you're walking into wide open territory. If you've been sitting on a podcast idea, convinced you've missed your chance, this article will change your perspective entirely. After helping hundreds of students launch successful shows and building my own podcast to over 100 million downloads, I've learned that the people saying "it's too late" are usually the same ones who gave up after three episodes. The truth is, now might actually be the perfect time to start your podcast. Let me show you exactly why! And if this episode inspires you to hit ‘record', you're going to want to register for my FREE class “Podcasting 101: How to Start, Record, and Profit from Your Show” at http://www.freepodcastclass.com! I can't wait to help you get your show up and running. Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/best-time-to-start-a-podcast  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Shop SKIMS Fits Everybody collection at http://skims.com/goaldigger! Create your sanctuary of comfort with Boll & Branch. Get 20% off your first sheet set plus free shipping at https://www.bollandbranch.com/goaldigger. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Visit http://www.mercury.com/ to apply online in 10 minutes. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.

Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Political developments in Japan and France have brought more volatility to sovereign debt markets. Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha highlights the risks investors need to watch out for.Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha, from Morgan Stanley's Global and U.S. Economics teams.Today, I'm going to talk about sovereign debt outlooks and elections around the world.It's Wednesday, October 15th at 10am in New York.Last week we wrote about the deterioration of sovereign debt and fiscal outlooks; and right on cue, real life served up a scenario. Elections in Japan and another political upheaval in France drove a reaction in long-end interest rates with fiscal outlooks becoming part of the political narrative. Though markets have largely stabilized now, the volatility should keep the topic of debt and fiscal outlooks on stage.In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the LDP, elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader in something of a surprise to markets. Takaichi's election sets the stage for the first female prime minister of Japan since the cabinet system was established in 1885.That outcome is not assured, however. And recent news suggests that the final decision is a few weeks away. The landmark movement in Japanese post-war politics, in some ways further solidifies the changing tides in the Japanese political economy. Markets have positioned for Takaichi to further the reflation trade in Japan and further support the nominal growth revival.The Japanese curve twists steepened sharply as Tokyo markets reopened with the long-end selling off by 14 basis points amid intensifying fiscal concerns and the unwinding of pre-election flattener positions. Specifically, expectations appear to be aligning for a more activist fiscal agenda – relief measures against inflation, bolstered investment in economic security and supply chains, and stepped-up commitments to food security.Our strategists expect that sectors poised to benefit will include high tech exporters, defense and security names, and infrastructure and energy firms, as capital is likely to rotate towards these areas. Though, as our economists cautioned, the lack of a clear legislative maturity may hamper efforts for outright reorientation of fiscal policy.Meanwhile, we expect the implications for monetary policy to be limited. Our reading is that Taikaichi Sanae is not strongly opposed to Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's cautious stance reducing expectations for near term hikes. But we also reiterate that a hike late this year remains a possibility, particularly as the yen weakens.Economically, our baseline call has been supported by the election outcome given we did not expect the BoJ to raise rates in the near future. Indeed, market expectations of an increase in interest rates have been priced out for the next meeting.France is the other economy that saw long-end rates react to political shifts since we published our debt sustainability analysis. PM Lecornu's resignation was far quicker than markets expected, especially given the fact that he was only in office for a matter of weeks.A clear majority in the current parliament remains elusive pointing to continued gridlock, and ultimately snap elections remain a possibility for the next weeks or months. At the heart of the political uncertainty is division about how to proceed with fiscal consolidation against a moving target of widening deficits.The lack of fiscal consolidation in France has been a topic for many years. Though the ECB provides an implicit backstop against disruptive widening of OAT spreads through the TPI, our Europe economists view the activation of TPI as unlikely. As the spread widening has been driven by concerns around France's fiscal sustainability, a factor that is likely seen as reflecting fundamentals.In our rather mechanical projections on debt, we highlighted markets would ultimately determine what is and is not sustainable. These political events are the type of catalyst to watch for.So far, the risks have been contained, but we have a clear message that complacency could become costly at any time. With the deterioration in debt and fiscal fundamentals, we suspect there will be more risks ahead.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

It's a big week for bank earnings. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reported quarterly results on Tuesday; Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report on Wednesday. Overall, banks are pulling in plenty of revenue — especially from their investment banking and trading departments. But the old-fashioned business of lending out money has been more of a mixed bag. We'll unpack. Also on the show: a major cryptocurrency scam and the economics of Broadway contract negotiations.

It's a big week for bank earnings. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reported quarterly results on Tuesday; Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report on Wednesday. Overall, banks are pulling in plenty of revenue — especially from their investment banking and trading departments. But the old-fashioned business of lending out money has been more of a mixed bag. We'll unpack. Also on the show: a major cryptocurrency scam and the economics of Broadway contract negotiations.

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber discussed the market rally on a day in which September CPI was scheduled to be released. The report has been postponed until October 24 due to the government shutdown. Shares of Bank of America and Morgan Stanley jumped on better-than-expected quarterly results. The anchors reacted to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's harsh criticism of China at the CNBC Invest in America Forum. Sara Eisen interviewed Fed Governor Stephen Miran at that event, discussing his push for further rate cuts. On the AI Front: A consortium including Blackrock, Nvidia, Microsoft and xAI agreed to buy a data center company for about $40 billion. Hear what Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff told Jim at Dreamforce Tuesday about AI and the speed of innovation. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Big banks driving market moves this morning: Carl Quintanilla, Leslie Picker, and David Faber kicked off the morning with a breakdown of key takeaways from new numbers out of Morgan Stanley and Bank of America before drilling down into individual picks with Trivariate's Adam Parker - and later getting the view from the C-suite when it comes to the consumer, credit, M&A and more with first Citizens Financial's CEO (calling out a "positive macro" on the call) and later Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan.  Plus: what investors need to know from CNBC's "Invest in America" forum - including the Treasury Secretary's newest comments about the trade war with China, and how CEOs are gauging potential regulation ahead.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Bank of America shares jumped 5 percent after posting stong earnings and revenue that beat analyst expectations as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo also reported a strong day which overshadowed worries about growing trade tensions with China, EP Wealth's advisor Chad Burton discusses building your wealth, More on the Thursday October 16th Retirement & Wealth Strategies for Your Future seminar at the Palo Alto Elks Lodge with EP Wealth Advisors CFP Chad Burton and CFP CFA Ryan Ignacio as well as the Pints and Portfolios Sunday October 26th 11am to 1pm in Berkeley with Rob and EP Wealth Advisors

In this episode, we speak with Bob Morse, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Strattam Capital, a private equity firm with over $1B in AUM, partnering with founder-led B2B software and technology companies positioned to become vertical market leaders. Since its founding in 2014, Strattam has completed more than 50 partnerships—helping founders scale their teams, expand market reach, and adopt transformative technologies—including AI—to solve the customer problems they understand so well. Prior to co-founding Strattam, Bob was a Partner and Investment Committee member at Oak Hill Capital Partners and held roles at GCC Investments and Morgan Stanley. He graduated summa cum laude from Princeton and earned his MBA from Stanford, where he was an Arjay Miller Scholar. Bob was recently named a Top Software Investor of 2025 by GrowthCap. Strattam was also recognized as a Top Private Equity Firm of 2025. Bob supports USRowing Foundation. To learn more about this organization click here. I am your host, RJ Lumba. We hope you enjoy the show. If you like the episode click to follow.

Bank of America shares jumped 5 percent after posting stong earnings and revenue that beat analyst expectations as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo also reported a strong day which overshadowed worries about growing trade tensions with China, EP Wealth's advisor Chad Burton discusses building your wealth, More on the Thursday October 16th Retirement & Wealth Strategies for Your Future seminar at the Palo Alto Elks Lodge with EP Wealth Advisors CFP Chad Burton and CFP CFA Ryan Ignacio as well as the Pints and Portfolios Sunday October 26th 11am to 1pm in Berkeley with Rob and EP Wealth AdvisorsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

APAC stocks were mostly higher as expectations for incoming Fed rate cuts helped the region shrug off the mixed lead from Wall St.Fed Chair Powell said downside risks to the US jobs market have risen and rising risks to the job market justified a September interest rate cut.US President Trump announced he is considering terminating business with China regarding cooking oil.European equity futures indicate a firm cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 future up 1.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.DXY is softer and now basically flat on the week, AUD is attempting to atone for recent losses, EUR/USD sits on a 1.16 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Industrial Production (Aug), NY Fed Manufacturing (Oct), Cleveland Fed CPI (Sep), US Military Pay Date, Fed Beige Book, (Suspended Releases: US CPI), BoE's Ramsden & Breeden, ECB's de Guindos, Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Miran, Bostic, Waller & Schmid, RBA's Bullock & Kent, Supply from UK & Germany.Earnings from ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Dollar Tree & Progressive.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are in the green; LVMH +14% & ASML +3.6% both gain post-earnings; US equity futures also rise.USD losses extend into a second session, EUR remains underpinned by French optimism.USTs incrementally firmer, OATs gain as traders digest the latest pension reform suspension.XAU breaks USD 4200/oz, crude benchmarks muted amid heightened trade tensions.Looking ahead, highlights include NY Fed Manufacturing (Oct), Cleveland Fed CPI (Sep), US Military Pay Date, Fed Beige Book, (Suspended Releases: US CPI), BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Miran, Bostic, Waller & Schmid, RBA's Bullock & Kent.Earnings from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Dollar Tree & Progressive.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya discusses how youth unemployment will impact future growth and stability across China, India, and Indonesia.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Today – Asia's young workforce is facing a significant challenge. How a soft labor market will shape everything from consumer demand to social stability and long-term growth. It's Tuesday, October 14th, at 2pm in Hong Kong. Across Asia, a concerning trend is emerging. The region's younger generations face mounting challenges in the job market. Asia's youth unemployment averages 16 percent, which is much higher than the U.S. rate of 10.5 percent. Youth unemployment rates are running two to three times higher than headline unemployment rates. The underlying situation is even weaker than what is represented by [the] unemployment rate. And within Asia, the challenge is most acute in China, India, and Indonesia, the three most populous economies. Youth unemployment rates for these three economies are running close to double, as compared to other economies in Asia. Now let's take a closer look at China. The urban youth unemployment rate, i.e. for 16–24-year-olds, has steadily increased since 2019. What's driving this rise in unemployment? A mismatch in labor demand and supply. The number of university graduates surged 40 percent over the last five years to close to 12 million. But economy-wide employment has declined by 20 million over the same period. Entry-level wages are sluggish, and automation plus subdued services growth mean fewer opportunities for newer entrants. Turning to India, their unemployment rate is the highest in the region at 17.6 percent. Employment creation has been subdued. And on top of it, India also faces another issue: underemployment. Post-COVID, primary sector – i.e. farming and mining – employment rose by 50 million, reaching a 17-year high. Note that these jobs are relatively low productivity jobs. And this is explained by the fact that [the] primary sector now accounts for less than 20 percent of GDP but it employs about 40 percent of the workforce. That's a sign of COVID-induced underemployment. How fast must growth be to tackle the unemployment challenge? In our base case, India's GDP will grow at an average of 6.5 percent over the coming decade – and this will mean that India will be one of the fastest-growing economies globally. But this pace of growth will not be sufficient to generate enough jobs. To keep [the] unemployment rate stable, India needs an average GDP growth of close to 7.5 percent; and to address underemployment, the required run rate in GDP growth must be even higher at 12 percent. Shifting to Indonesia, its youth unemployment rate is the second highest in the region. Moreover, close to 60 percent of jobs are in the informal sector. And many of these jobs pay below minimum wage. Similar to India, both these trends signal underemployment. The key reason behind this challenge is weak investment growth. Indonesia's investment-to-GDP ratio has dropped meaningfully over the last five years. So, what's the way forward? For China, shifting towards consumption and services could reduce labor market mismatches. And for India and Indonesia, boosting investment is key. India in particular needs much stronger growth in its industrial and exports sectors. If reforms fall short, policy makers may need to fall back on increasing social welfare spending to manage social stability risks. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Chris Markowski calls out Wall Street's hypocrisy as Morgan Stanley opens crypto trading to all clients — abandoning even the pretense of protecting investors. He breaks down how big firms like Morgan Stanley pay lip service to “fiduciary duty” while serving their true master: shareholders. From inflated spreads to reckless risk-taking, Chris exposes how the system is designed to profit off clients, not protect them — and reminds listeners that the smart play isn't trusting these firms with your money, it's owning their stock instead.

Have you ever thought about starting a podcast but then talked yourself out of it because it felt too overwhelming, too technical, or you worried no one would listen? You're not alone, and today's guest is proof that you don't have to have it all figured out to launch something truly powerful. Head to http://www.freepodcastclass.com and I'll share with you the first 3 steps to adding a podcast to your business–and how it could BECOME your business! Stacy Smith is a full-time teacher, a mom, and a graduate of The Podcast Lab. She's also the host of The Biking Wellness Podcast and today, she's asking ME the questions that have come up after launching her show. She asks me things like: How do I grow my show with limited time? How do I stay aligned with my values while still marketing what sells? How do I know if my podcast is working when the numbers feel slow? If you're wondering whether starting a podcast is worth it—or how to actually keep one going when you have a full plate—this conversation is for you. And if you're ready to finally get your show into the world, I've got you! Register now for my free class “Podcasting 101: How to Start, Record, and Profit from Your Show” at http://www.freepodcastclass.com!  Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/how-to-build-a-business-with-no-time  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Shop SKIMS Fits Everybody collection at http://skims.com/goaldigger! Create your sanctuary of comfort with Boll & Branch. Get 20% off your first sheet set plus free shipping at https://www.bollandbranch.com/goaldigger. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Visit http://www.mercury.com/ to apply online in 10 minutes. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.

Morgan Stanley analysts Betsy Graseck and Michael Cyprys discuss what's driving unprecedented consolidation for asset and wealth management firms.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Large Cap Banks Analyst and Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research.Michael Cyprys: And I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges Research.Betsy Graseck: The asset management and wealth management industries are on the cusp of major consolidation. We're going to unpack today what's driving the race for scale and what it means for investors and the industries at large.It's Monday, October 13th at 4pm in New York.Mike, before we dive into the setup for M&A, I did want to get out here on the table. What's your outlook for the asset management industry?Michael Cyprys: Sure. So, asset management today is, call it, $135 trillion industry, in terms of assets under management that are managed for a fee. We expect it to grow at about an 8 percent clip annually over the next five years. And that's driven by faster growth in private markets, solutions and passive strategies, while we expect to see slower growth in the core active arena.Two key drivers of growth there. First private markets. We expect to see rising investor allocations from both institutional investors, but also more importantly from retail investors that remain early days in accessing the asset class. So, as we look out in the coming years, we do expect this democratization of private markets to play out, and we see that being helped by product innovation, investor education and technology advances that are all helping unlock access.Second growth driver is solutions. And I think you're looking at me a little dazed on what's solutions. And by that we really mean products and strategies that are addressing demographic challenges around aging populations. So, think about that as solutions that provide for retirement income, as well as those that offer tax efficient solutions. So, think about that as model portfolios, as well as sub-advisory mandates. We also expect to see growth in outsourced Chief Investment Officer, OCIO mandates and broadly retirement focused products.So that's the asset management industry in terms of our outlook. Betsy, what's your outlook for the growth in the wealth management industry?Betsy Graseck: Well, somewhat similar, but a little bit slower – off of a larger base. What does that mean? So, we are looking for global growth in wealth management of 5.5 percent CAGR, and that is off of a base of [$]301 trillion, which is intriguing, right? Because that's larger than the [$]135 trillion you mentioned for asset management.So, in wealth, we were expecting [$]301 trillion in 2024 grows to [$]393 trillion in 2029. And within the wealth industry, what we see as the driver for incremental opportunities here is both in the ultra high net worth segment as well as the affluent segments, as client needs evolve and technology delivers improving efficiencies.And I think one of the interesting things here – as we think about the look forward from industry perspective – is the fact that both asset management and wealth management industries have been very fragmented for a very long time, especially relative to other financial industries. I think one reason is that they need less capital to operate successfully.But Mike, back to the asset management industry, specifically – deal activity seems to be inching up. What are you attributing this increase in M&A to?Michael Cyprys: Yeah, so we do see M&A picking up, and we expect that to continue over the next couple of years. A number of reasons for that. First growth is becoming a bit more scarce, with clients working with fewer partners. And over the next five years, we expect the number of available slots to continue to decline upwards of a third, which concentrates growth opportunities.Betsy Graseck: Wait, wait, wait. Upwards of a third. And number of slots. When you say number of slots, you're talking about it from the asset manager client perspective…Michael Cyprys: Correct. From the asset owner standpoint or intermediary standpoint.Betsy Graseck: They're looking to consolidate their providers?Michael Cyprys: Correct.Betsy Graseck: Okay.Michael Cyprys: They're looking to work with fewer asset managers.Betsy Graseck: Mm-hmm.Michael Cyprys: At the same time, the winners are taking more share, right? So, our work shows that the largest firms are disproportionately capturing a larger share of net new money as they leveraged their scale to reinvest in capabilities as well as in relationships.And also, I'd point to the fact that we have seen a pickup in deal activity already. And we think that's going to lead more firms to consider strategic activity themselves, as they think and rethink what constitutes scale. And we think that that bar is rising…Betsy Graseck: Mm. Michael Cyprys: And firms are thinking about how to compete effectively as the landscape evolves. And look, this is all in the context of already a lot of challenges and changes happening as you think about evolving client needs. The rising cost of doing business, whether it's investing for growth or even harnessing AI, and that's all pressuring profitability. We think this is particularly a challenge for those mid-size money managers that are multi-asset, multi-liquid and global. Those with, call it, [$]0.5 trillion to [$]2 trillion in size, making them more likely to pursue consolidation, opportunities to bolster their capabilities and scale while also generating cost efficiencies.Betsy Graseck: So now looking forward, what type of deals do you expect and how does it differ from past years?Michael Cyprys: Sure. So, a few things are different than past years. First is that the deal activity is encompassing many forms of partnership. And we think that this experimentation around partnership will only accelerate. That allows, for example, for private market managers to access retail distribution without owning the end infrastructure and the last mile to the customer. It also allows traditional managers to provide their retail customers with access to high quality private market strategies from well-known and branded firms.Second is we see a broadening out of the types of acquisitions themselves when we talk about M&A, right? So, three types of deals. First are deals within the same vertical or intersector. So, think about this as an asset manager buying another asset manager to acquire capabilities, to gain cost synergies or bolster distribution.Second type of deals that we're seeing are ones that expand beyond one's own vertical. So intersector deals. So, asset management combining with wealth or insurance, for example, where firms would seek to own a larger, greater portion of the overall value chain. And so, these firms are getting closer to that end client. For example, an asset manager getting closer to that end customer. And the third type being financial sponsor deals where a sponsor is investing either as an in an asset or a wealth manager.Now you didn't ask me around the historical outcomes of M&A. But I would say that the historical outcomes have been mixed in the asset management space. But here we think that the opportunity ahead is so bright that we think firms will find ways to navigate and pursue strategic activity. But it does require addressing some of the culture and integration challenges that have plagued some of the deals in the past.Betsy Graseck: Okay.Michael Cyprys: So, Betsy, what do you see as the key drivers of consolidation in wealth management?Betsy Graseck: There's several. From the wealth manager side, number one is an aging population of advisor and advisor-owners, and the need to address succession and how to best serve their clients when passing on their book of business. So, we've got succession issues as the number one driver. But additionally, the need for scale is clearly getting higher and higher – given the costs of IT infrastructure rising, the needs to be able to leverage AI effectively and to manage your cyber risk effectively. These are just some of the drivers of desire to merge from the wealth manager perspective.Second. We have an increasing buying pool. If you just look at the large cap banks, for example. Significant amount of excess capital. Could we see some of that excess capital be put to work in the wealth management industry? To me, that would make sense. Why? Because wealth management is one of the best, if not the best financial institution service for shareholders. It is a high ROE business. It also is a business that commands a high multiple in the stock market.So, we would not be surprised to see activity there over the course of the next several years. So, Mike, thanks for joining me on the show today.Michael Cyprys: Thanks, Betsy. Always a pleasure.Betsy Graseck: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Record crypto liquidation event: who got wiped out and why Bitcoin held firm while altcoins cratered Trump vs. China: China rare-earth controls rattle markets and global supply chains U.S. Treasury props up the Argentine peso Morgan Stanley opens Bitcoin to all clients Square/Block enables millions of merchants to accept Bitcoin ---- The News Block is powered exclusively by Ledn – the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. My followers get .25% off their first loan. Learn more at www.ledn.io/natalie  ---- Pre-order Natalie's new book "Bitcoin is For Everyone," available November 18, 2025. https://harriman-house.com/authors/natalie-brunell/bitcoin-is-for-everyone/9781804091135  ---- Read every story in the News Block with visuals and charts! Join our mailing list and subscribe to our free Bitcoin newsletter: https://thenewsblock.substack.com  ---- References mentioned in the episode: Largest Crypto Liquidation Event in History  Crypto's Record Sell-off Sparks Intrigue  Altcoin Peak to Trough Losses During Crash The First Ever $20,000 Bitcoin Candlestick  Bitcoin Dominance Spikes During Market Chaos Bitwise Jonathan Man's Post on Crypto Cleanse James E. Thorne's Tweet on Bitcoin Resilience Bessent's Tweet on Argentina Intervention  U.S. Launches Financial Rescue of Argentina Joe Burnett's Tweet on U.S. Government Buying Pesos “Debasement Trade” CNBC Article  Bessent Interview on Argentina Intervention  Trump's Truth Social Post on China  Trump Threatens 100% Tariff on China China Expands Rare Earths Restrictions China Unveils Sweeping Rare Earths Controls China Blames Trump for Escalating Trade War Politico: Trump Wanted Trade Deal. Xi Opened New Front Politico: Trump's 100% Tariff Threat Sparks Defiance Morgan Stanley Drops Client Restrictions on Crypto Morgan Stanley GIC Report on Crypto Allocation State Street: Institutions Plan to Double Crypto Exposure Luxembourg Becomes First Euro Sovereign to Own BTC Block Unveils All Square Merchants to Accept Bitcoin  Block Releases Bitcoin Payments for Merchants  ---- Upcoming Events: Bitcoin Amsterdam, Bitcoin MENA and Bitcoin 2026 are around the corner. Get 10% off passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing  

Crypto News: Bitcoin and Stocks crash as Trump announces 100% tariffs on China. Morgan Stanley drops restrictions on which wealth clients can own crypto funds. Banks explore launching a stablecoin linked to G7 currencies. Brought to you by

Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses how the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history could reshape saving, spending and investment behavior across America.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, a powerful force reshaping the financial lives of millions of Americans: inheritance.It's Friday, October 10th at 10am in New York.Americans are living longer and they're passing on their wealth later. Longevity is one of Morgan Stanley Research's four key themes, and this is an interesting element of longevity. As baby boomers age, they're expected to transfer their wealth to Gen X, millennials and Gen Z to the tune of tens or even hundreds of trillions of U.S. dollars.Estimates vary widely, but the amounts are unprecedented. And so, inheritance isn't just a family milestone; it's becoming an important cornerstone of financial planning and longevity. And understanding who's receiving, expecting, and using their inheritances is key to forecasting how Americans save, spend, and invest.According to our latest AlphaWise survey, 17 percent of U.S. consumers have received an inheritance, and another 14 percent expect to receive one in the future. Younger Americans are especially optimistic. Their expectations split evenly between those anticipating an inheritance within the next 10 years and those expecting it further out.But here's the kicker; income plays a huge role. Only 17 percent of lower income consumers report receiving or expecting an inheritance, but that number jumps to 43 percent among higher income households highlighting a clear wealth divide.What about the size of the inheritance? In our survey, those who received or expect to receive an inheritance fall broadly into three categories. About half reported amounts under $100,000 dollars. For about a third, that amount rose to under $500,000. And then meanwhile, 10 per cent reported an inheritance of half a million dollars or more.Younger consumers tend to report smaller amounts, while inheritance size rises with income. One important thing to remember about our survey though, is it looks more at the average person. We are missing some of those very high net worth demographics in there where I would expect inheritance to rise much higher than half a million.And so, when we think about this, how will recipients use this wealth? That's a really important question. The majority, about 60 percent, say they have or will put their inheritance towards savings, retirement, or investments. About a third say they'll use it for housing or paying down debt. Day-to-day consumption, travel, education and even starting a business or giving to charity also featured in the survey responses – but to a lesser extent.The financial impact of inheritance is significant: 46 percent of recipients say it makes them feel more financially secure; 40 percent cite improvements in savings; and 22 percent associate it with increased spending. Some even report retiring earlier or lightening their workloads.Inheritance trends are shaping consumer behavior and have the power to influence spending patterns across industries. To sum it up, inheritance isn't just a family matter, it's a market mover.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Matt Smith to the show. Matt Smith is Co-Author of "The Preparation" & Host of "Doug Casey's Take" Podcast. The conversation centers on the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on gold, monetary policy, and potential global financial reset. Smith discusses the unprecedented rise in gold prices, noting it has topped $4,040 and suggesting this bull market is unique. He believes the United States and China may have an unspoken agreement to use gold as a "liquidity sink" to manage massive economic challenges, particularly the enormous $175 trillion in unfunded liabilities. Smith argues that the current gold price surge is not just about preservation of capital, but potentially wealth creation. He points to historical comparisons, such as housing prices measured in gold terms, which have dramatically shifted over the past decades. Morgan Stanley's recent recommendation of 20% portfolio allocation to gold underscores the metal's growing importance. The discussion explores broader geopolitical and economic trends, including potential monetary resets, the role of critical minerals, and alternative educational paths. Smith is skeptical of traditional higher education, instead advocating for a more experiential learning approach outlined in his book "The Preparation", which he co-authored with Doug Casey. Regarding gold and precious metals, Smith believes we are in the early stages of a significant market transformation. He sees gold as uniquely positioned to serve as a monetary reset mechanism, with potentially dramatic price increases ahead. He suggests the price could reach extraordinary levels, potentially hitting $23,000 per ounce as part of a broader economic recalibration. The conversation touches on various global economic dynamics, including trade wars, critical mineral strategies, and potential geopolitical shifts. Throughout, Smith maintains a pragmatic yet cautious perspective on current economic trends, emphasizing the potential for significant structural changes in the global monetary system.

The team jokes about “Bitcoin being dead again” after Trump's new tariff threats against China tanked markets and briefly pulled Bitcoin to $117K.They analyze Trump's tariff negotiation style, calling it political theater and a dip-buying opportunity for “active tariff dip buyers.”Discussion on Core V30 debates—Bitcoiners fighting among themselves as a “bear market signal,” contrasting with the historic block size wars.VJ Boyapati's chart shows long consolidation phases in this cycle—evidence of healthier, institutional-driven adoption rather than retail mania.Gold hits $4,000/oz, outperforming U.S. stocks; the hosts link gold's run to the global debasement trade and rising mainstream awareness of sound money.John Haar highlights that despite 40-year-high inflation, global debt-to-GDP barely fell, reinforcing the inevitability of fiscal dominance and currency debasement.Paul Tudor Jones reaffirms Bitcoin as the “fastest horse,” signaling institutional confidence alongside gold.Morgan Stanley opens Bitcoin access to wealth clients—another milestone in mainstream financial adoption.Square launches zero-fee Bitcoin payment integration for merchants, advancing Bitcoin's medium-of-exchange use case.Discussion closes on Lightning yield experiments (8–9% APY) and Luxembourg's sovereign Bitcoin purchase, showcasing Bitcoin's expanding financial utility and global reach. Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

In this episode, we talked with Aishwarya Jadhav, a machine learning engineer whose career has spanned Morgan Stanley, Tesla, and now Waymo. Aishwarya shares her journey from big data in finance to applied AI in self-driving, gesture understanding, and computer vision. She discusses building an AI guide dog for the visually impaired, contributing to malaria mapping in Africa, and the challenges of deploying safe autonomous systems. We also explore the intersection of computer vision, NLP, and LLMs, and what it takes to break into the self-driving AI industry.TIMECODES00:51 Aishwarya's career journey from finance to self-driving AI05:45 Building AI guide dog for the visually impaired12:03 Exploring LiDAR, radar, and Tesla's camera-based approach16:24 Trust, regulation, and challenges in self-driving adoption19:39 Waymo, ride-hailing, and gesture recognition for traffic control24:18 Malaria mapping in Africa and AI for social good29:40 Deployment, safety, and testing in self-driving systems37:00 Transition from NLP to computer vision and deep learning43:37 Reinforcement learning, robotics, and self-driving constraints51:28 Testing processes, evaluations, and staged rollouts for autonomous driving52:53 Can multimodal LLMs be applied to self-driving?55:33 How to get started in self-driving AI careersConnect with Aishwarya- Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/aishwaryajadhav8/Connect with DataTalks.Club:- Join the community - https://datatalks.club/slack.html- Subscribe to our Google calendar to have all our events in your calendar - https://calendar.google.com/calendar/r?cid=ZjhxaWRqbnEwamhzY3A4ODA5azFlZ2hzNjBAZ3JvdXAuY2FsZW5kYXIuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbQ- Check other upcoming events - https://lu.ma/dtc-events- GitHub: https://github.com/DataTalksClub- LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/datatalks-club/ - Twitter - https://twitter.com/DataTalksClub - Website - https://datatalks.club/

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Andre Dos Santos y Juan Manuel de los Reyes analizan a fondo si el mercado realmente está viviendo una burbuja de inteligencia artificial o si, por el contrario, la inversión masiva sigue sustentada en fundamentos sólidos.Comienzan revisando las advertencias del Fondo Monetario Internacional y del Banco de Inglaterra, que alertan sobre el riesgo de una corrección si se desinfla el entusiasmo por la IA.Luego contrastan esa visión con los reportes de Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley y JP Morgan, que señalan que, aunque el crecimiento ha sido vertiginoso, las empresas de Big Tech mantienen ganancias robustas y balances más sanos que en la burbuja del 2000.El episodio se adentra también en el impacto real de esta ola de inversión: desde los megaproyectos de centros de datos como el de Meta hasta el enorme consumo de energía y agua que genera demanda en sectores como utilities, industriales y commodities.Finalmente, los hosts discuten si el boom actual de la IA puede sostenerse en el tiempo o si está acercándose a un punto de inflexión que podría redefinir la dinámica del mercado global.

Diving into the history of Morgan Stanley's first bond deal, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains the value of high-quality corporate bonds.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at the first bond that Morgan Stanley helped issue 90 years ago and what it might tell us about market uncertainty. It's Thursday, October 9th at 4pm in London. In times of uncertainty, it's common to turn to history. And this we think also applies to financial markets. The Great Depression began roughly 95 years ago. Of its many causes, one was that the same banks that were shepherding customer deposits were also involved in much riskier and more volatile financial market activity. And so, when the stock market crashed, falling over 40 percent in 1929, and ultimately 86 percent from a peak to a trough in 1932, unsuspecting depositors often found their banks overwhelmed by this market maelstrom. The Roosevelt administration took office in March of 1933 and set about trying to pick up the pieces. Many core aspects that we associate with modern financial life from FDIC insurance to social security to the somewhat unique American 30-year mortgage rose directly out of policies from this administration and the financial ashes of this period. There was also quite understandably, a desire to make banking safer. And so the Glass Steagall Act mandated that banks had a choice. They could either do the traditional deposit taking and lending, or they could be active in financial market trading and underwriting. In response to these new separations, Morgan Stanley was founded 90 years ago in 1935 to do the latter. It was a very uncertain time. The U.S. economy was starting to recover under President Roosevelt's New Deal policies, but unemployment was still over 17 percent. Europe's economy was struggling, and the start of the Second World War would be only four years away. The S&P Composite Equity Index, which currently sits at a level of around 6,700, was at 12. It was into this world that Morgan Stanley brought its first bond deal, a 30-year corporate bond for a AA rated U.S. utility. And so, listeners, what do you think that that sort of bond yielded all those years ago? Luckily for us, the good people at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis digitized a vast array of old financial newspapers. And so, we can see what the original bond yielded in the announcement. The first bond, Morgan Stanley helped issue with a 30-year maturity and a AA rating had a yield of just 3.55 percent. That was just 70 basis points over what a comparable U.S. treasury bond offered at the time. Anniversaries are nice to celebrate, but we think this example has some lessons for the modern day. Above anything, it's a clear data point that even in very uncertain economic times, high quality corporate bonds can trade at very low spreads – much lower than one might intuitively expect. Indeed, the extra spread over government bonds that investors required for a 30-year AA rated utility bond 90 years ago, in the immediate aftermath of the Great Depression is almost exactly the same as today. It's one more reason why we think we have to be quite judicious about turning too negative on corporate credit too early, even if the headline spreads look low. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, please tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Stocks hitting records at the open - before pressure in the early trade:Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber kicked off the hour with the latest alternative data reads from the street as the government shutdown continues to delay key reports - before getting a read on consumer demand, inflation, and more with the CEO of Pepsico, fresh off results from the name. Plus: hear one former Goldman Sachs Chief Economist discuss the AI trade - and rally in gold prices - along with Morgan Stanley's analysis on how AI will impact where, when, and how we work... Around the edges: details on a new NHTSA probe into Tesla - following supposed safety concerns around the company's FSD technology... More on what's driving Ferrari shares to their worst day in years... And a look at how millennials are changing the investing game with big bets on alternative assets.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Morgan Stanley managing director explains how advisors can serve multigenerational clients and cater to their ever-changing priorities while helping them achieve their goals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comThis might mark the top of the market, folks.The BBC just invited me on to talk about the gold price.Though it was the World Service, not BBC 1, so maybe this is just an interim top.Here's the interview, in case you want to listen:Another danger sign. Jim Cramer, the world's greatest contrarian indicator, to everyone's surprise, is all of a sudden a “confirmed gold bug.”Gold is at $4,000. Silver is at $49.Many of the miners are spiking. Capital, so hard to come by for a mining company barely six months ago, is now being thrown at them. And it's being taken. Who is going to buy all this paper in four months' time when it comes free trading?‘The whole population are going crazy . . . Old as well as young are daily falling victim to the gold fever.'That was an old man in 1849 talking, quoted in the Secret History of Gold. It could just as well be now.By the way, folks, with gold at record highs, The Secret History of Gold should surely should be the next book you read.I must confess, folks. I am torn.There is just too much hot money sloshing about. Everyone's talking gold. That is usually time to take cover.Then again, this market has the potential to go a lot higher. There is a very real chance both the silver and gold price could double before this is over. What that would do to the mining companies …Today we offer eight reasons this market could go a lot higher.And, in the interests of balance, we offer five reasons it is peaking right here, right now.We will start with eight reasons it is going higher.1. Institutional Money Is Still on the SidelinesThe investment world is under-allocated to gold. In the last bull market we reached 8% allocation. Today we are only at 2%.Even gold ETF holdings themselves are below 2021 levels.We are even more under-allocated to miners.2 The 60/20/20 Revolution: Gold Gets Equal Billing with BondsTraditional portfolio allocation Is m hanging. It used to be 60:40 equities to bonds. But, with the generational secular bull market in government bonds now over, Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer, Mike Wilson is advocating instead for a 60/20/20 mix. Where one leads, others follow. Gold would have equal status to bonds, as it should. Funds the world over 20% allocated to gold! This one is potentially huge.3 Bull Markets Last a Decade -We're Only a Few Years In1971 to 1980, 2001 to 2011. When did this one start? Late 2018? Late 2022? We might only be three years into this one.Higher prices beget higher prices.4 The Debt Monster Has Barely Woken UpThis debt crisis has barely got going. Further fiat debasement is inevitable. Your pound, euro or dollar is going to buy you a lot less 10 years from now. That is INEVITABLE. It's inherent to the system.You don't want to be storing your capital in fiat.If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.That's four strong reasons already - and we have another four to go. Followed by five warning signs we could be at the top right now. 5 Central Banks Are Re-M onetising Gold (unoffically)

Burnout can creep in when we least expect it, and most of us don't recognize we're burned out until it's already taken a toll on our health, our work, and our joy.  In this episode, I'm pulling back the curtain on the subtle, hidden signs of burnout — the ones you might be missing — and how to start reversing them before they take you out completely. Whether you're a business owner, a busy professional, or just someone trying to juggle all the things, this conversation is going to feel like a deep breath! Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/hidden-signs-of-burnout  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Shop SKIMS Fits Everybody collection at http://skims.com/goaldigger! Create your sanctuary of comfort with Boll & Branch. Get 20% off your first sheet set plus free shipping at https://www.bollandbranch.com/goaldigger. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Visit http://www.mercury.com/ to apply online in 10 minutes. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.

An extended U.S. government shutdown raises the risk for weaker growth potential. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas suggests key checkpoints that investors should keep in mind.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today: Three checkpoints we're watching for as the U.S. government shutdown continues. It's Wednesday, October 8th at 10:30am in New York. The federal government shutdown in the United States has crossed the one week mark. But if you're watching the markets, you might be surprised at how calm everything seems. Stocks are steady. Bond yields haven't moved much, and volatility's low. It's more or less the scenario my colleague Ariana and I had talked about in anticipation of the impasse in Washington. We'd noted the potential for uncertainty for investors and market reaction depending on how long the shutdown would last. So that raises a big question: what, if anything, about this government shutdown could shake investor confidence and start moving markets? The question is worth considering. Prediction markets now suggest the most likely outcome is that the government shutdown will not end for at least another week. And as we've seen in past shutdowns, the longer it drags on, the more likely it is to matter. That's because risks to the economic outlook start to accumulate, and investors eventually have to start pricing in a weaker growth outlook. There's a few checkpoints we're watching for – for when investors might start feeling this way. First, the missed paycheck for furloughed federal workers. The first instance of this comes in a few days. Less pay naturally means less spending. Studies suggest that spending among affected workers can drop by two to four percent during a shutdown. That's not huge for GDP at first; but it's a sign the shutdown is having effects beyond Washington, DC. Second, this time might be different because of potential layoffs. The administration has hinted that agencies could move to permanently cut staff — something we haven't seen before. Unions have already said they'd challenge that in court. But if those actions start, or even if legal uncertainty grows around them, it could raise the economic stakes. Third, we're watching for real disruptions to economic activity resulting from the shutdown. The last shutdown ended when air traffic in New York was curtailed due to a shortage of air traffic controllers. We're already seeing substantial air traffic delays across the country. More substantial delays or ground halts obviously impede economic activity related to travel. And if such actions don't coincide with signals from DC of progress in negotiating a bill to reopen the government, investors' concern could grow. So here's the bottom line: markets may be right to stay calm — for now. But the longer this shutdown lasts, the more likely one of these pressure points pushes investors to rethink their optimism. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Gold has exploded above $4,000 an ounce, but that might not be the biggest news about the precious metal this week.  In what could be a seismic shift, Morgan Stanley has shaken up the traditional investment paradigm by ditching the conventional 60/40 portfolio and recommending a strategy that includes a 20 percent allocation to gold. In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey explains the ramifications of this shift, along with the reasons behind it. Along the way, he covers some of the dynamics behind this gold bull run and what it reveals about financial markets, money, and the economy.

In this episode, Kathy Wanner reflects on a career built on excellence, empathy, and entrepreneurship. From her start at Morgan Stanley to building Adams Street Partners into a global investment firm, she shares lessons on ownership, trust, and the power of putting capital in the hands of great founders. Kathy discusses what drew her to Shore Capital Partners, how investing in searchers aligns with her passion for mentoring, and why leading with kindness remains her guiding principle. She offers perspective on grit, humility, and staying true to yourself, and why success and kindness can go hand in hand.Key Takeaways:Excellence begins with trust and consistency, built through attention to detail and a commitment to doing every job with prideEntrepreneurial success depends on humility, grit, and adaptability, allowing leaders to pivot and persevere through uncertaintyTrue fulfillment comes from helping others grow by sharing knowledge, mentoring emerging leaders, and investing in people with purposeKindness and competitiveness can coexist, and the most effective leaders lead with empathy while maintaining the drive to winChapters:00:00 - Introduction06:24 - Grit and Adaptability10:48 - Mentorship and Growth17:29 - Resilience and Authenticity20:57 - Leading with KindnessListen to our podcasts at:https://www.shorecp.university/podcastsYou'll also find other Microcap Moments episodes, alongside our series Everyday Heroes and Bigger. Stronger. Faster., highlighting the people and stories that make the microcap space unique.Other ways to connect:Blog: https://www.shorecp.university/blogShore Capital University: https://www.shorecp.university/Shore Capital Partners: https://www.shorecp.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/shore-universityThis podcast is the property of Shore Capital Partners LLC. None of the content herein is investment advice, an offer of investment advisory services, or a recommendation or offer relating to any security. See the “Terms of Use” page on the Shore Capital website for other important information.

Danny Moses interviews Shana Sissel, CEO and founder of Banríon Capital Managemen, known as the 'queen of alternatives.' Shana shares her journey in the financial industry, including roles at Morgan Stanley, Fidelity Investments, Russell Investments, and Orion, and discusses the evolution and importance of alternative investments. She highlights the challenges and opportunities for retail investors in this space and the role of advisor-centric platforms like Banríon . The conversation also touches on current market conditions, the impact of AI, and concerns about valuations and debt. Shana emphasizes the significance of manager selection and understanding market structures in today's complex financial landscape.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Kathy Wanner reflects on a career built on excellence, empathy, and entrepreneurship. From her start at Morgan Stanley to building Adams Street Partners into a global investment firm, she shares lessons on ownership, trust, and the power of putting capital in the hands of great founders. Kathy discusses what drew her to Shore Capital Partners, how investing in searchers aligns with her passion for mentoring, and why leading with kindness remains her guiding principle. She offers perspective on grit, humility, and staying true to yourself, and why success and kindness can go hand in hand.Key Takeaways:Excellence begins with trust and consistency, built through attention to detail and a commitment to doing every job with prideEntrepreneurial success depends on humility, grit, and adaptability, allowing leaders to pivot and persevere through uncertaintyTrue fulfillment comes from helping others grow by sharing knowledge, mentoring emerging leaders, and investing in people with purposeKindness and competitiveness can coexist, and the most effective leaders lead with empathy while maintaining the drive to winChapters:00:00 - Introduction06:24 - Grit and Adaptability10:48 - Mentorship and Growth17:29 - Resilience and Authenticity20:57 - Leading with KindnessListen to our podcasts at:https://www.shorecp.university/podcastsYou'll also find other Microcap Moments episodes, alongside our series Everyday Heroes and Bigger. Stronger. Faster., highlighting the people and stories that make the microcap space unique.Other ways to connect:Blog: https://www.shorecp.university/blogShore Capital University: https://www.shorecp.university/Shore Capital Partners: https://www.shorecp.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/shore-universityThis podcast is the property of Shore Capital Partners LLC. None of the content herein is investment advice, an offer of investment advisory services, or a recommendation or offer relating to any security. See the “Terms of Use” page on the Shore Capital website for other important information.

Our Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains how changes in the yield curve are affecting markets such as insurance, Treasury yields and mortgage rates.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today – How the shape of the yield curve has affected credit and housing markets, and the risk of changes to the curve and its implications. It's Tuesday, October 7th at 1pm in New York. The shape of the yield curve plays a pivotal role in financial markets. It influences everything from credit conditions to housing and mortgage dynamics. And you've been hearing on this show for some time about more Fed rate cuts coming. Our economists expect 25 basis point rate cuts at the next three meetings – that is October, December and January. And then two more in April and July of next year. What does this mean to the shape of the curve? Our high conviction call has been that investors should position for a steeper yield curve. Why does the curve matter? It's not just a macro signal. It's a transmission mechanism that shapes pricing, risk appetite, and sector flows. Take life insurers, for example. A steeper curve has turbocharged demand for fixed annuity products, which in turn drives flows into spread assets like corporate and securitized credit. Insurance demand has become a powerful technical in credit markets. This year's steepening has been led by falling front-end yields. For example, 2-year Treasuries are down about 60 basis points, significantly outpacing the 40 basis point drop in 10-year yields and just 5 basis point drop in 30-year yields. That front-end move reflects shifting rate expectations and offers relief to highly leveraged issuers who rely on short-term funding. But longer-dated yields remain sticky, keeping all-in borrowing costs elevated. That is good for insurers – and the sale of fixed annuity products – but acts as a brake on overall issuance, helping keep credit spreads tight despite macro uncertainty. That said, not all markets benefit. Mortgage rates, which track longer yields more closely than the fed funds rate, have actually risen 25 to 30 basis points since the easing cycle began in September of 2024. That's a headwind for affordability. While a steeper curve may support lending and future housing supply, it's not helping today's buyers. A flatter curve with lower long-end yields would offer more meaningful relief—but that is clearly not our base case. Bottom line: Rate cuts matter, but the shape of the curve may matter more. A steeper curve is a tailwind for credit but a headwind for housing. And a reminder that not all markets move in sync. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Crypto News: Grayscale launches staking for Ethereum and Solana ETPs in US first. Cathie Wood's ARK bets on Tokenization with a stake in BlackRock-Backed Securitize. Brought to you by

Several critical developments are pointing toward a rising cost of uncertainty across the logistics landscape. Analysts are trimming expectations for the back half of the year, with Morgan Stanley significantly cutting earnings per share estimates for most truckload and less-than-truckload carriers due to high shipper uncertainty and continuing industrial contraction.. A major regulatory shift occurred when the U.S. Court of Appeals overturned a key Federal Maritime Commission rule regarding detention and demurrage fees, a ruling analyzed in Demurrage dilemma: court overturns FMC's trucking rule. Specifically, the court found the FMC rule that categorically blocked demurrage charges against motor carriers to be "arbitrary and capricious," potentially opening the door for drayage carriers, who often lack leverage, to be billed for these terminal fees once again. Equipment costs are set to rise after President Trump announced a new 25% tariff on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks starting November 1st, as reported in Trump to impose 25% tariff on trucks starting Nov. 1. Since the U.S. imports the majority of these trucks from Mexico, the tariff could significantly raise the total cost of ownership for U.S. fleets, potentially slowing down equipment replacement cycles, even if vehicles nominally fall under the USMCA agreement. North of the border, Canada Post is facing a severe labor crisis linked to its deep financial struggles, having incurred losses of $2.7 billion since 2018, leading to a crucial update in Canada Post reduces contract offer to striking workers, warns of job cuts. The postal operator rescinded a $500 to $1,000 signing bonus and is proposing to eliminate lifetime job security for urban employees while aiming to downsize the workforce through attrition, buyouts, and early retirement to facilitate needed modernization. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is Bitcoin about to go parabolic? Institutional investor James Lavish joins the show to break down why the debasement trade is going mainstream and why that could be the fuel for Bitcoin's biggest bull run yet. With Wall Street giants like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley now recommending Bitcoin, and liquidity returning to global markets, are we entering a new phase of the cycle, or standing on the edge of a blow-off top? ~~~~~

If you've ever looked at your business, your brand, even your personal relationships, and thought, “This used to feel right… but now I'm not so sure,” you are not alone, and you are not broken. Jen Hatmaker is no stranger to the hard and holy work of reinvention. She's a bestselling author of 14 books (including four New York Times bestsellers), the host of the award-winning For the Love podcast, and a beloved leader to a community of over 1.6 million. But her newest book, AWAKE, isn't about business strategy. It's about what happens when your identity, your roles, and your life fall apart… and how to rebuild from a more honest, more aligned place. Jen walks us through what she calls a Midlife Renaissance, not a crisis. It's a powerful season of reassessing everything you've been told about womanhood, worth, work, and success… and reimagining a life and business that truly feels like you. If you're an entrepreneur navigating change, if you're pivoting your purpose, or if you're wondering what stays and what goes in this next chapter… click play. Goal Digger Facebook Community: https://www.facebook.com/groups/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goaldiggerpodcast/ Goal Digger Show Notes: https://jennakutcherblog.com/starting-over-in-business-your-terms  Thanks to our Goal Digger Sponsors: Sign up for your $1/month Shopify trial period at http://shopify.com/goaldigger. Find a co-host today at http://airbnb.com/host. Shop SKIMS Fits Everybody collection at http://skims.com/goaldigger! Create your sanctuary of comfort with Boll & Branch. Get 20% off your first sheet set plus free shipping at https://www.bollandbranch.com/goaldigger. Check out What Should I Do With My Money? from Morgan Stanley. Listen now at https://mgstnly.lnk.to/bqe8HiAC!GD.  Experience the power of a Dell PC with Intel Inside®, backed by Dell's price match guarantee. Shop now at https://www.dell.com/deals. Visit http://www.mercury.com/ to apply online in 10 minutes. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.

Our strategists Daniel Blake and Tim Chan discuss how Asia is adapting to multipolar world dynamics, tech innovation and longevity trends to create new opportunities for global investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Daniel Blake: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Daniel Blake, Morgan Stanley's Asia Equity and Thematic Strategist. Tim Chan: And I'm Tim Chan, Morgan Stanley Head of Asia Sustainability Research and Thematic Strategist Daniel Blake: Today, how Asia is reshaping its development strategy, corporate governance, and capital markets to lead globally. It's Monday, October 6th at 8am in Singapore. Tim Chan: And it's also 8am in Hong Kong. Daniel Blake: Asia is experiencing a number of dramatic changes that are reshaping industries, even entire economies. Deglobalization, supply chain shifts, frenetic investment in AI and looming disruption from the adoption of the technology, rapid energy transformation, and the transition to super aged populations as longevity drives investment in innovative healthcare and better nutrition are just some of the overarching themes. Asia's transformation is a story every global investor needs to follow and look for opportunities in. Tim Chan: So, what are the overarching themes, when you look at Asia Pacific? For example, what are the key themes that you're seeing in terms of driving the equity return and the market trend that you're seeing? Daniel Blake: We're approaching the Asia thematic opportunity from the framework of a competitive reinvention. It's competitive because this is deeply rooted in the cultural and business norms across much of the region, which has had an export focus through the modernization process in Japan, and more broadly with the emergence of the Asia Tigers. But we're seeing this competition really stepping up another notch. As countries look at how they can take market share in emerging technologies, and also this overarching competition between the U.S. and China, which sits at the heart of the multipolar world theme we've been laying out in recent years. We're also seeing a reinvention of development strategies of corporate governance frameworks and of capital markets to try to better improve the financial supply chain, to see the capital raising the capital allocation process improved and ultimately drive better returns for an aging population. So, Tim, you've been very focused on the corporate governance improvements that were seen in much of the region. Take us through what you think is most compelling and most important for investors to note. Tim Chan: I think governance reforms is a really key thing for Asia Pacific. Take an example in Japan, in the past we have done some correlation analysis between the major governance factors and what are driving the return. What we have found is that, first of all, there is a significant alpha potential from online companies with leading governance metrics and also companies that may improve their governance metrics over time. So, if we look at the independence of board of directors as an example. There is a positive correlation between the total return and also the independence in Japan market. And overall, we are seeing a major government improvement. As Daniel you have mentioned, China, Korea, India, and Singapore, and Japan as well – all these markets together account for over 70 percent of the market cap in MS Asia Pacific in index. So that's why, we think the governance reform is really driving the return of Asia Pacific as a whole. Daniel, after talking about the governance reform and capital market reform, I know multipolar level is also a key theme for Asia Pacific. So, what you are seeing in terms of multipolar level in Asia Pacific? Daniel Blake: So, the multipolar world theme has come back to the foreground in 2025 as trade tensions have risen, as deal making has been struck or attempted. And we've seen the concept of weaponized interdependence really being proven out in the second quarter of 2025, as China has been in recent years, implementing frameworks for export controls and leverage these quite effectively. So economic security initiatives have come back to the focus for investors. Over recent years, we've seen a number being set up across the region, including Japan's Economic Security Promotion Act, the Self-Reliant India framework, and South Korea's Supply Chain Stabilization Act, as well as Australia's National Reconstruction Fund. So, we see a number of investment opportunities flowing from these reforms. Ultimately the critical mineral and permanent magnet supply chain is very much in focus, but we're also expecting to see semi localization. So, semiconductor localization efforts are continuing to drive investment and activity. Naturally, defense has been a key area of focus for investors in 2025, and overall we see defense spending rising in Asia from 600 U.S. billion dollars in 2024 to [$]1 trillion in 2030.So, Tim, the energy security theme fits as part of this overall future of energy theme that you've been exploring with the team. How do you see this intersection with the multipolar world and what are the key investment opportunities? Tim Chan: For the future of energy, I think the energy story is really at the core of Asia multipolar world positioning. Take an example, we are seeing for Southeast Asia, the region is importing gas from U.S., and then also Korea and Japan are also trying to export their nuclear technology to the Western world as well. I think all these have a part to play in the multipolar world; but at the same time, they are also crucial for these countries to meet their own energy target and strategy. In Asia Pacific, when we look at the future of energy, there are a few driving force[s]. One is the very strong growth of renewable energy. Take an example, in India, we are seeing a huge CapEx going into the renewable energy sector and solar sector as well. China is already the biggest market in solar panel. Then also Korea and Japan are developing their nuclear capacity as well. And as I have mentioned, they also export their nuclear technology to the Western world. So, I would say, these Asian countries are balancing the multipolar world priorities with their future of energy target as well. And then there were also lots of opportunities between these dynamics; I will highlight two examples. One is a nuclear renaissance thesis that we have written extensively in the past two years. We have highlighted Japan and Korea being the key beneficiaries under this multipolar world and future of energy dynamics. And then the other would be the gas globalization in Southeast Asia or ASEAN region, where we see opportunities in the gas distributor, gas infrastructure in Southeast Asia. And then gas is going to be much more important when it comes to the energy, security and transition agenda in Southeast Asia region. So we are seeing lots of development in the future of energy in Asia Pacific. But when it comes to the other big theme that is AI. Asia Pacific is also a leader in a global AI race. So, Danny, what are the most reputable trend that you're seeing on a national or regional level? On tech diffusion and AI in Asia Pacific? Daniel Blake: So, the concept of competitive reinvention also is useful in understanding Asia's response to AI and technology diffusion. So, we've seen China in particular, looking to strengthen its position in the development phase of new technologies. And we're also seeing on the export competition front, more incentives to compete for the next phase of supply chain diversification. We're also seeing the emerging class of China MNCs that are sitting at the heart of our China Emerging Frontiers research. And another key area of discussion and research for us is understanding China's unique AI path. Where we're seeing more of a focus on policy makers and corporates playing to strengths in terms of power, data and talent, given the shortages of compute, and at the same time wanting to pursue a localization strategy over the medium term. On the technology front, we think the India stack is also still underappreciated as a digital enabler of opportunities in the New India. And then more broadly, we are looking for companies that we see in Asia that will prove to be AI adoption leaders. So, this underpins a really another key work stream for us in identifying opportunities from AI and tech diffusion into the region. So, Tim, how about when we turn to the theme of longevity, what are the key investment opportunities you see in Asia Pacific? Tim Chan: First of all, let's look at China. So, China is entering a super age society and by 2030, China's elderly population will hit 260 million. So that is a big number, which accounts for 18 percent of the population. And Japan as well, and Korea as well. Korea is already entering the super aged society. And then there have been reform program on healthcare, financial system pension and labor market in order to support these, old aging population. And for Japan, the focus is really on not just living longer but also living more healthy. Take an example, we have done some reports on the healthy food industry in Japan. And how different companies are providing affordable, healthy food to consumer. And we think that will create opportunities for investor, if they would like to look into longevity as a theme. Overall, we are seeing new market in healthcare, pharmaceutical, and affordable healthy food, as well as the reform in the wealth management and pension system that will create opportunities in the financial market as well. And the longevity economy and or the silver economy is becoming a big theme for Asia Pacific for a long time to come. Daniel Blake: Tim, thanks for taking the time to talk. Tim Chan: Yeah, great speaking with you, Daniel. Daniel Blake: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss the current market situation amid a government shutdown and the ongoing AI investment trends. They explore topics such as market complacency, valuations, and the potential impact of geopolitical issues. The duo also debates the decision between investing in the stock market or opting for a 4% CD, given the market's all-time highs. They analyze the recent performance of Bitcoin, gold, and crypto markets, and their implications on the broader financial landscape. Additionally, they touch on concerns around the AI investment bubble, technological commoditization, and global trade tensions, specifically regarding Nvidia and Huawei's AI developments. Story Links AI investors are in for a rude awakening (The Guardian) The AI capex endgame is approaching (FT) What if we're wrong? (Axios) Jeff Bezos hails AI boom as ‘good' kind of bubble (FT) Cracks are forming in the AI capex boom, warns Morgan Stanley. What to buy and sell (MarketWatch) AI startup valuations raise bubble fears as funding surges (Reuters) This Is How the AI Bubble Will Pop (Derek Thompson) James Anderson warns Nvidia's $100bn OpenAI bet echoes dotcom bubble (FT) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Should the AI trade stand for “artificially inflated?” We discuss with Wedbush's Dan Ives. Plus, Stempoint Capital's Michelle Ross tells us what biotech names she is betting on right now. And, Sherry Paul from Morgan Stanley tells us how she is advising her clients with stocks at record highs. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We're taking a look at how the watch market has shifted in the past half decade plus. In particular, we're taking a look at what's changed since Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult published their first annual watch industry report in 2018 – which brands and segments are up and down, how tastes are changing, and so much more. For full show notes, including links to coverage on the Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult reports, visit collectivehorology.com/blog. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

Monday's off to a busy start! As investors and traders await any developments from Washington DC, Tom White points out the fact that in the previous 5 government shutdowns equity markets actually rose higher. He joins Diane King Hall to set up the trading week before turning to a pair of big premarket movers. AMD (AMD) is jumping on news that it reached a deal to sell a potential 10% stake to OpenAI in tranches. And, Micron (MU) begins Monday's action with an upgrade at Morgan Stanley and a new price target to $220.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Micron (MU) shares are on the move after an upgrade from Morgan Stanley. The analyst raised its price target to $220 and Rick Ducat breaks down the upside rally ahead of Monday's bell. He points to the significant upside move compared to the overall tech sector and S&P 500 (SPX). Then, Tom White compiles a "moderately bullish" example trade for Micron. He demonstrates a call butterfly options strategy and why it's a measured approach.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Our China Healthcare Analyst Jack Lin discusses how China's biotech surge is reshaping healthcare, investment and innovation worldwide.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Jack Lin: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jack Lin, from Morgan Stanley's China Healthcare Team. Today, the boom in China biotech – and how it's not just a headline for China-focused investors, but a story that touches all of us. It is Friday, October 3rd at 2pm in Hong Kong. Many people might not realize this but some of the next generation healthcare innovation is being developed far from Silicon Valley and Wall Street. The medicines you rely on, treatment plans that could shape your family's future, even investment opportunity that can grow your savings. They are all increasingly influenced by China's rapidly evolving biotech sector, which is transitioning from traditional generics manufacturing into the global innovation ecosystem. In fact, China's biotech industry is set to become a major player in the global innovation ecosystem. By 2040, we project China's originated assets could represent about a third of U.S. FDA approvals – up dramatically from just 5 percent today. And the question isn't if China's biotech will matter, but how global patients could benefit; and how consumers and investors worldwide might engage with its impact.What's driving this transformation? Three key components are driving the globalization of China originated drug innovations: cost, accessibility, and innovation quality. Lower cost in China's biotech sector enables more efficient development. Clinical trial quality is improving with regulatory pathways becoming more streamlined, promoting accessibility of China innovation for global markets. Finally, innovation in China's biotech sector is gaining momentum with more regionally developed medicines now eyeing market approval from leading overseas agencies like the U.S. FDA and EMA.This is all to say China is on track to become a key force on the global biotech stage. That said, right now we're also at a crossroads moment as geopolitical tensions between U.S. and China pose potential risks to the flow of innovation. Despite these uncertainties, we see a likely outcome of co-opetition, a blend of competition and collaboration, as global pharma grapples with the dual imperatives of innovation and resilience. Of course, this rapid evolution brings both opportunities and challenges. It's prompting stakeholders around the world to rethink their strategies and collaborations in this shifting landscape of global medical innovation. As the China biotech industry evolves, the choices made by investors, policy makers, and healthcare communities, both within China and globally, will determine the therapies of the future. It is truly a dynamic space, and we'll continue to bring you updates. Thanks for listening to our thoughts on the market. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review, wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleagues today.

Our Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang discusses how China's new approach to economic development is transforming domestic industries and reshaping the global investment landscape.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist.Today – a consequential shift in China's economic policy is set to reshape domestic markets and send ripples across the global economy.It's Thursday, October 2nd at 2pm in Hong Kong.If you're an investor, it's important to understand China's new approach to economic development. The government's policies to drive a recovery from an economic slump are changing the rules of competition, profitability and growth. This affects Chinese companies, and in turn global supply chains and investment flows.Let's start with the term involution – what is it? In China, involution describes a cycle of excessive competition—think companies fighting for market share by slashing prices, ramping up production, and eroding profits, often to the point where nobody wins. The government's anti-involution campaign is a direct response to this problem.What factors prompted the launch of this anti-involution initiative? Since 2021, China has faced mounting deflationary pressures—falling prices, a housing market slump, and a surge in manufacturing investment that led to overcapacity. The September 2024 policy pivot began to address these issues, and in mid-2025 the government launched a more targeted anti-involution campaign. This phase focuses on reducing excessive competition and restoring pricing power through market-based consolidation.As we assess the potential effectiveness of China's anti-involution policy, our base case projects China's return on equity (ROE) to reach 13.3 percent by 2030, up from a cycle low of 10 percent in May 2024 and 11.6 percent by July 2025. In a bullish scenario, decisive reforms and demand-side stimulus could push ROE as high as 16.3 percent.We also expect earnings growth to accelerate, with our base case showing an annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6 percent in 2025, rising to 11.1 percent by 2027. We forecast valuations to normalize towards 12–13x forward price-to-earnings, in line with emerging market peers, but this could re-rate higher if reforms succeed.In terms of investment opportunities, we believe the EV Batteries industry will benefit the most from the Chinese government's anti-involution efforts. It's got strong policy support, cutting-edge technology, and a market that's consolidating fast—meaning the days of low-quality and excess capacity are fading. We're seeing a shift toward long-term, sustainable growth. Steel and Cement are industries where the state has a strong hand and capacity controls are well established. These factors help stabilize the market and open the door for steady gains. Finally, Airlines. While the industry has faced persistent losses, there isn't a[n] oversupply of seats, and regulatory coordination is strong. With the right reforms, Airlines could be poised for a significant turnaround.The sectors best positioned to benefit from China's anti-involution strategy are more domestically oriented. But this policy is bound to have global implications. And the ripples will likely extend to global supply chains, especially in Materials, Chemicals and Autos.Looking ahead, the pace and success of anti-involution will depend on further structural reforms, demand-side support, and the ability to digest industrial credit risks gradually. The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan could bring more clarity on tax, social welfare, and local government incentives.So, what should investors be paying attention to? China's anti-involution campaign is more than a policy tweak—it's a recalibration of how the country balances growth, innovation, and sustainability. The key is to track sector-level reforms, watch for signs of consolidation, and focus on companies with strong fundamentals and policy tailwinds.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

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