Podcasts about Morgan Stanley

Go to Go to https://www.learningleader.com/becoming to see the pre-order bonuses for The Price of Becoming This is brought to you by Insight Global. If you need to hire one person, hire a team of people, or transform your business through Talent or Technical Services, Insight Global's team of 30,000 people around the world has the hustle and grit to deliver. My Guest: Scott Galloway is the New York Times bestselling author of books including The Four, The Algebra of Happiness, Post Corona, Adrift, and The Algebra of Wealth.  Notes: Key Learnings Routine speeds up time, novelty slows it down. If you want life to go fast, just spend it alone and have a routine and never bust out of that routine. What makes life interesting is diversity in people, because people are complicated, and relationships are complicated. Lean into your emotions to slow time down. If you see something that moves you, stop, think about it, ask yourself why it moves you, and try to cement that moment in your brain. Otherwise, you're not sleepwalking through life; you're sleep sprinting. "The greatest wasted resource in history is good intentions that don't get articulated." No matter how famous someone is, they love affirmation as much as anybody else. Good thoughts that don't get articulated are wasted. Absorb when you're upset and lean into emotions, good and bad. This sort of marks the day and slows things down. Otherwise, if you get up every morning, do the same thing, eat the same thing, have the same relationship, the week's just gonna go really fast. Reverse engineer your success to things that aren't your fault. What are the things that played a role in your success that you had no control over? Your luck, your good fortune. For Scott: big government, assisted lunch, Pell Grants, University of California, technology financed by middle-class taxpayers, DARPA, the internet, deep pools of capital, and acceptance of failure. His mom told him he had value every day. Scott's mom, every day, implicitly and explicitly, told him and communicated to him that he had value. That builds a basic confidence that manifests in different ways: the confidence to fail, approach strangers, believe you're worthy of love, that you'll add value to a company, and that you can ask for tens of millions of dollars from someone. When good things happened, he used to call his mom. Whether it was getting a bonus at Morgan Stanley or striking up a conversation with a woman at Starbucks and getting her number, Scott used to call his mom. Your parents can bask in your victory, and you can brag to your parents, and it's okay. If there's no one there with you, it's like it didn't happen. Scott travels for business and stays at really nice hotels, and inevitably gets upgraded to the penthouse or the George V in Paris when he's alone. But if there's no one there with you, it's like it didn't happen. Celebrate victories, tell people how much they mean to you. You have to call your friends, celebrate their victories, celebrate your own, and tell people how much they mean to you. Every day, no matter what, tell your kids you're proud of them and love them. No matter how much Scott's kids piss him off, at some point, he finds a way to say, "I'm proud of you, and I love you immensely. You know that, right?" He hopes they have that same kind of base or pillar of confidence he had his whole life. Having someone tell you they believe in you every day works. You don't have to be a baller or successful. Just having someone in your life and every day telling them they mean a lot to you, they can't help but not believe you after a while. Being a leader isn't about being the smartest person in the room. Scott used to think being a leader was being the smartest person in the room, and he had trouble, especially with other men, thinking if he acknowledged someone else was doing a good job, somehow that made him less impressive. You have so much currency as a founder or manager. If you're in a management or leadership role, much less a founder, you have so much currency to pull someone into a conference room and say, "You were outstanding in that meeting" or "I just read this, and I love this paragraph. God, where did you come up with this idea?" You literally see these people just light up. "If you're thinking it, say it." The instant you're thinking something positive about somebody, just tell them, text them, call them. Don't wait. We have a tendency to think other people are telepathic, that they must sense we think they're wonderful. No, they don't sense it. Articulate it. When you're on your deathbed, you're not gonna think "I gave too much praise at work and told too many people how much they meant to me." Young people need watering. If you don't give young people feedback and praise when they deserve it, it's like having a ton of capital and not spending it. Especially with young people, they need watering. Feedback is incredible compensation. Whenever someone does something good, Scott tries to remind himself via email. Then, when he does their review at the end of the year, it's like, " Wow, this dude is paying attention. That is a form of compensation. Give thoughtful reviews that show you understand them. Tell them what they need to develop to get to the next level. Pay for the courses they need. They're a single mom who needs flexibility and wants to make more money. That's compensation. "Become a clip machine." Certain people are clip machines: James Clear, Morgan Housel, Kat Cole, Scott Galloway. These are people who communicate ideas in ways that are instantly shareable and memorable. For leaders, becoming an effective communicator isn't optional anymore. You need to be able to inspire and move people. The ability to write well is the stem of storytelling. It forces you to manage your thoughts and think things through. It's difficult to be a great storyteller if you can't write at a competent level. Rank yourself across every medium and go deep on one. Look at every medium (texting, LinkedIn, short form video, TikTok, long form writing, speaking), rank yourself, listen to yourself, decide what your specialty is, and then go very deep into one. Figure out your medium and commit to being in the top 1%. Challenge yourself to be in the top 10% within a year, the top 1% within three years. Identify which medium you have skills in, then challenge yourself. If you're in the top 6,000 podcasts out of 600,000 that put out content every week, you're in the top 1%. "Social media may make you want to shower after you use it, but it's frightening how powerful it is." In terms of economic power and influence, it's frightening how powerful social media is right now. If you're a young person and you want to be influential or economically secure, you need to master it. Storytelling is the enduring skill to give your kids. Scott's core competence is storytelling. His superpower is attracting and retaining people who help leverage his skills. The most radical act in a capitalist society is not participation. Scott started Resist and Unsubscribe because action absorbs anxiety. He was sick of being virtuous and courageous on a keyboard or a mic and wanted to do something. "Ready, fire, fucking aim on this thing called life." Scott wants to dance like no one is watching. He's gonna be dead soon, and it's all going really fast. He doesn't want to look back and think about losing sponsors or what people thought was stupid. He wants to think, "Right on, I tried to do something." He wants to be that guy who was unafraid, who showed up with a carpool to try and make a difference. Your spending or lack thereof is a weapon hiding in plain sight. The government most quickly responded six years ago during COVID, not because tens of thousands of people were dying, but because the GDP crashed 31%. The president backs away from plans when the bond market or stock market goes down. Even a gnat on an elephant matters. Even if it's just a gnat on an elephant, enough gnats will take down an elephant. If you have economic security and people who love you unconditionally, you have an obligation to speak out. Sam Harris has this great saying: if you have economic security and people who love you unconditionally, then you have an obligation to speak out and speak your mind, because most people don't have that luxury. Do what makes you feel good about yourself. It's not easy being mediocre-looking; it takes real effort. Scott grew up very skinny with bad acne and thinks maybe he's a little too focused or self-conscious about his looks. America is ageist, and looks matter. New York is the ultimate tip of the spear for a capitalist society, and it's optimized for two people: hot women and rich guys. For everyone else, it's a soul-crushing experience. We can talk about the way the world should be and the way the world is. That's the way the world is. Start working out. Scott coaches young men: start working out. It's good for your head. It shows women and employers you're in shape, not just because it looks good (which it does), but because it reflects how you show up, that you have discipline, that you can commit to something. The rule of threes puts you in the top 5% of attractiveness. If you work out three times a week or more, if you spend at least 30 hours a week working outside of the house, and put yourself in the company of strangers (church group, nonprofits, sports league), just by doing those three things, you put yourself in the top 5% of attractiveness of young males. Anyone who's had great yeses has had a shit ton of no's. If you can be in the top 5% and learn how to mourn and move on from rejection, at some point, you'll be voluntarily celibate, which is awesome. There were hundreds of no's for you to get to a top podcast. You get used to no. No one has the right to a living or to reproduce. If you want to score above your class economically or romantically, get out a big spoon and get ready to eat shit. It's what everyone of us has done. "I'm constantly worried about my boys now." Scott didn't worry about his kids when they were little unless they were sick - they were safe and home. Now he's worried about them all the time: are they doing okay at school? Is the quiet one okay? His champagne toast moment would be celebrating his son's first year of college going well - having fun, a good friend group, a couple of dates, football games, and gearing up for sophomore year. Reflection Questions What things played a role in your success that you had no control over? Your luck, your good fortune. How does reverse engineering to those things change your perspective? Who in your life needs to hear that you're proud of them and that they mean a lot to you? When's the last time you actually said it? Rank yourself across every medium you participate in (texting, LinkedIn, video, writing, speaking). What's your specialty? Are you willing to commit to being in the top 1% of that medium within three years? More Learning #578: Scott Galloway - The Algebra of Wealth #492: Scott Galloway - Finding What You're Good At #396: Scott Galloway - Turning Crisis Into Opportunity Podcast Chapters 00:00 Preorder my new book! 02:45 Meet Scott Galloway 04:13 Resilience To Criticism 05:43 Slowing Time With Novelty 08:43 Scott's Mom Building Confidence 14:52 Use Praise As a Leadership Currency 24:27 Becoming A Great Storyteller 31:06 Resist And Unsubscribe Origins 35:35 What Comes Next 37:13 Facing Both Backlash and Support 39:45 Living Unafraid 41:23 Why Sell Prof G? 42:37 Building Enterprise Value 46:46 The Openness of Cosmetic Surgery  48:47 The World's View on the Physical 50:42 Rule of Threes for Men 53:11 Scott's Champagne Toast 56:52 The Belief of Reasonable Politics  58:10 Where to Find Scott Online 01:02:14 EOPC

As the Iran conflict upends market narratives, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets offers his take on how to view the historic disruption happening in March and what the next few weeks could bring.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today on the program, a survey of just how quickly key narratives have changed and how lasting that might be. It's Friday, March 20th at 2pm in London. The NCAA basketball tournament, also known as March Madness, is one of my favorite times of the year. The single elimination tournament of 64 teams is wonderfully chaotic with plenty of surprises, especially in the early games. And basketball is one of those sports where momentum often seems real. A team that has somehow forgotten how to shoot in the first half of the game can suddenly look unstoppable in the second. As I said, March is one of my favorite times to watch sports. It is often not one of my favorite times to forecast markets. In 2005, 2008, 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2025, March saw outsized market volatility. And it's the case again this year. I'm sure, it's just a coincidence. This time, it's not just about a historic disruption to the energy markets, which my colleague Martijn Rats and I discussed on this program last week. It's also a major reversal of the market storyline. If this were a basketball game, the momentum just flipped. In January and February of 2026, there were strong overlapping signals that the U.S. and global economy were in a good – even accelerating – place, boosted by cheap energy, stimulative policy, and robust AI investment. Oil prices were down as metals, transports, cyclicals and financial stocks, all rose. Europe, Asia, and emerging market equities – all more sensitive to global growth – were outperforming. Inflation was moderating. Central banks were planning to lower interest rates. The yield curve was steepening and the U.S. dollar was weakening. The January U.S. Jobs report was pretty good. And then … it all changed. In a moment, the Iran conflict and the subsequent risk of an oil price shock flipped almost every single one of those storylines on its head. Now, oil prices rose and the prices for metals, transports, cyclicals and financial stocks all fell. Equities in Europe and Asia – regions that rely heavily on importing oil – underperformed. The U.S. dollar rose as investors sought out safe haven. Inflation jumped following oil prices. The yield curve flattened on that higher inflation, as we and many other forecasters adjusted our expectations for what central banks would do. And, as it happens, the last U.S. Jobs report was pretty bad. If the Iran conflict ends and oil resumes flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, it's very possible that this story could once again swing back. But until it does, the speed of which this momentum has flipped means that almost by definition, many investors have been caught off guard and left poorly positioned. If you couple that with the challenge of diversifying in this new environment – where the prices for stocks, bonds, and even gold have all been moving in the same direction – the path of least resistance for investors may be to continue to reduce their exposure to ride out the storm, driving further near term weakness.Unfortunately, that could make for an uncomfortable few weeks. At least, there's some good basketball on. Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

My guest today is Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer. In today's episode, Mike Wilson explains how a rolling recession has given way to a staggered recovery, and why he expects leadership to broaden beyond mega-cap stocks into small caps, cyclicals, and international markets. He highlights growing risks from AI disruption, private credit weakness, and the Iran conflict. To close, Mike discusses a shift beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio toward a more flexible 60/20/20 approach that includes assets like gold. (0:00) Starts (1:31) Mike Wilson on rolling recessions and rolling recoveries (5:28) Market implications of Iran conflict (9:52) Market cap weight vs. equal weight indices (15:41) Is 60/20/20 the new 60/40? (23:23) Geopolitical shocks (35:48) AI's impact and bullish on healthcare (42:03) Outlook for global economic recovery ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Register for Alpha Architect's LIVE HIDE webinar on March 26th ⁠here⁠. Want to Learn More about Alpha Architect? Visit ⁠www.funds.alphaarchitect.com⁠ Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of the Wise Investor Segment, host Matty A dives into a sleeping giant that is beginning to rear its ugly head in the economy. While most people are focused on mainstream economic indicators, a massive $1.7 to $1.8 trillion bubble has rapidly formed in the private credit market.What We Cover:The Private Credit Explosion: The injection of liquidity following the events of 2020 led to a massive boom in private credit , which consists of loans made by non-bank lenders.The Dominoes Falling: Major institutions like JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Blackstone are pumping the brakes, capping payouts, and halting fund redemptions.The Stagflation Threat: Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil shocks , which can keep inflation and interest rates elevated while defaults continue to rise.Real Estate Impacts: Cap rates are currently under pressure, margins are compressing , and refinancing windows are closing for commercial real estate and bridge loan borrowers.The Golden Opportunity: Investors who maintain liquidity and have dry powder will be well-positioned to capitalize on emerging distressed assets and motivated sellers.Episode Sponsored By:Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/CRE MASTERMIND: Visit myfirst50k.com and submit your application to join!FREE CRE Crash Course: Text “FREE” to 844-447-1555FREE Financial X-Ray: Text  "XRAY" to 844-447-1555

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Financials Conference, our Head of European Banks Alvaro Serrano and European Equity Research Banks Analyst Giulia Aurora Miotto discuss how geopolitics, private credit risk and AI are testing how resilient banks really are.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Alvaro Serrano: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Alvaro Serrano, Head of European Banks.Giulia Aurora Miotto: And I'm Giulia Aurora Miotto, European Equity Research Banks Analyst.Alvaro Serrano: Today we're at our annual European Financials Conference.It's Thursday, March 19th at 1:30pm, London.We're at our European Financials conference. Attendance is up almost at record levels, a great deal of engagement with both investors and companies – with three main topics dominating the debate: geopolitics, private credit, and AI. I think, on the Middle East, clearly a lot of focus during the whole three days. I think the message from banks has been about the resilience of the business model, acknowledging the loan growth could be weaker. Some of the investment decisions could be delayed, given the uncertainty. And of course, fees could also be affected as a result. On the flip side, there's an acknowledgement that during stress, savings rates go up. Deposit growth could be better, and with a steeper curve that could be better monetized. So, the message from the banks is about the resilience of the pre-provision profit outlook. Some banks have been talking about top-up of provisions if the situation persists in a IFRS9 world. But we do believe the overall outlook for earnings is of a resilient picture. However, we acknowledge the positioning of the sector is much richer than it was this time last year. The positioning; that means if stress continues, we could see the multiple suffering. And that, to be honest, is what we see the biggest channel of contagion to the sector is – is multiple de-rating if the stress continues, in what otherwise looks like a pretty resilient earnings picture. Giulia, what did you learn on private credit? Giulia Aurora Miotto: Yes, private credit was definitely another area of big focus and worrying from investors. From a bank's perspective, all the banks that are involved in private credit highlighted a couple of things. First of all, they tend to be senior when they lend to B2Cs. Secondly, they are over collateralized by hundreds, if not thousands of loans. And then thirdly, most investment banks have been doing this for a decade or more, and they tend to partner only with prime sponsors. So overall, the message was actually rather reassuring. Alvaro, AI was the other big topic at the conference. What did you learn there? Alvaro Serrano: It's even a bigger topic than last year. And obviously some of the volatility we've seen year-to-date contributed to that. I think overall the banks are seen as net beneficiaries of AI from an operational perspective. There's an acknowledgement that in an AI world, competition might increase, deposit competition has come up. Some fee products has also come up. But you have banks guiding to 9 percentage points improvement in cost income ratio in the next three years. So, the operational savings from productivity are seeing them more than offsetting any potential increase in competition. I think the known-unknown is employment; consequences of the improved productivity further down the line. But the message in Europe is relatively reassuring considering that over 20 percent of the workforce in Europe is expected to retire [in] the next 10 years. So, overall, seen as net beneficiaries.There's also discussions around regulation Giulia… Giulia Aurora Miotto: Yes, we had Maria Luís Albuquerque, European Commissioner in charge of the Savings and Investment Union project. This was one of the most attended sessions. And we heard on one side definitely determination to deliver on the project of the savings and investment union and deepen European capital markets. And mobilize savings towards more productive investments. On the other side, investors were rather skeptical and are really in wait and see mode. Some banks highlighted that they expect the progress on some of the key packages like securitization or market integration package as soon as May. So, we think this is a key area to monitor over the coming months – from a European competitiveness standpoint, Alvaro Serrano: I think that's a great place to wrap it up. And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, do let us know wherever you listen and share the podcast with friends and a colleague today.

A Morgan Stanley upgrade for Carnival (CCL) wasn't enough to push wind into the sails of the cruise ship company. Charles Schwab's Ben Watson explains how price action in the short and long-term establish key support and resistance levels into earnings. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

You went to law school to practice law—not to work a room full of strangers with sweaty palms and a stack of business cards. Yet here you are, five or six years in, and your entire career trajectory depends on "bringing in business." Nobody taught you how.In this episode, Gary Miles sits down with Michael Goldberg, founder of Knock Out Networking and a two-time TEDx speaker who has helped thousands of financial professionals generate hundreds of thousands of dollars through strategic networking. Now expanding his focus to help attorneys, Michael shares his proven system for knowing exactly where to go, what to say, and with whom.From his unexpected journey through restaurant management to becoming one of the nation's leading networking experts (and yes, a real competitive amateur boxer), Michael breaks down why most professionals get networking completely wrong—and how lawyers can shift from awkward card-exchanging to building powerful referral relationships that fuel sustainable growth.Whether you're a junior associate expected to bring in business with zero training, or a seasoned attorney looking to systematize your business development, this conversation delivers practical strategies you can implement this week.Who This Episode Is For:Attorneys expected to bring in business but never taught how—especially those who find networking uncomfortable or unproductive.What You'll Learn:→ Why genuine connection beats selling every time→ The four phases of networking (events are only 25%)→ How to own your calendar so business development actually happens→ The "chicken and egg" strategy for building referral relationshipsMichael Goldberg is the founder of Knock Out Networking, a speaking, training, and coaching firm that has helped financial advisors, brokers, and agents generate hundreds of thousands of dollars in new business over the past two decades. His client roster includes Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, UBS, Mass Mutual, Chubb Insurance, and Northern Trust.A two-time TEDx speaker, Michael holds the Certified Speaking Professional (CSP) designation—an honor earned by fewer than 5% of speakers worldwide. He is the author of Knock Out Networking for Financial Advisors and founder of THE Networking Group, a national networking organization for sales professionals and business owners.Michael has taught public speaking as an award-winning adjunct professor at Rutgers University for over 22 years. And yes—he's also a competitive amateur boxer, proving that "Knock Out Networking" is more than just clever branding.Connect with Michael:Email: michael@konetworking.comWebsite: knockoutnetworking.com[02:00] Michael's journey: From restaurant management to networking expert[06:00] Moving to Florida and rebuilding community from scratch[07:15] Boxing as a real sport—and a metaphor for connection[09:00] What makes Michael's networking approach different[10:15] Genuine connection vs. what most people think networking is[13:00] The power of listening (without being silent)[14:30] Parallels between financial advisors and attorneys in business development[17:30] Working with lawyers: Where most attorneys get stuck[19:00] The four phases of networking: Prep, presentation, follow-up, staying in touch[20:40] Virtual vs. in-person networking: The hybrid advantage[22:15] Owning your calendar and building accountability systems[25:20] The biggest obstacle in communicating your value—and how to overcome it[27:30] The mindset shift lawyers need to make[29:30] The role of mentors and outside perspective[31:40] Designing your business and life for freedom[33:00] The "chicken and egg" theory: Centers of influence vs. prospectsWould you like to learn what it looks like to become a truly Free Lawyer? You can schedule a complimentary call here: https://calendly.com/garymiles-successcoach/one-one-discovery-callYou can find The Free Lawyer Assessment here- https://www.garymiles.net/the-free-lawyer-assessment

A prolonged oil disruption is pushing gas prices higher. Arunima Sinha from our U.S. and Global Economics team joins Head of U.S. Policy Strategy Ariana Salvatore to discuss what that means for consumer spending, inflation expectations and the U.S. midterm elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha from Morgan Stanley's U.S. and Global Economics Teams.Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of U.S. Policy Strategy.Arunima Sinha: Today – what are the implications of the ongoing oil disruption for the U.S. consumer?It's Wednesday, March 18th at 10am in New York.Ariana, let's start with where we are in week three of this particular oil disruption and what you are thinking about in terms of what the paths to resolution could look like.Ariana Salvatore: Yeah. Great place to start. So, I would say before we get into what the resolution could look like, we need to think about how long could this conflict possibly last? And that's the most relevant question for investors as well. And there I would say there's very little conviction just because of the uncertainty associated with this conflict. But I'm keeping my eye on three different things.The first is a clearer prioritization of the objectives tied to the conflict. The Trump administration has laid out a number of different goals for this conflict, some of which are shorter in nature than others. The second thing I think we're looking at – that's really important – is traffic at the Strait of Hormuz. And there, the Trump administration has spoken about insurance, you know, naval escorts – all of these things that we think will take some time to really come to fruition. And at the time that we're recording this, it seems that we're still getting about low single digit number of tankers through the strait on a daily basis. So that's the second thing.The third point I would make is any type of escalation is really critical here. So, whether it's vertical – meaning different types of weapons used, different types of targets being hit. Or horizontal escalation, broadening out into different proxies and, and more so throughout the region. Those are really important indicators, and right now all of these things are pointing to a slightly longer-term conflict than I think most people expected at the start.Now, in terms of what that means for markets, for domestic gasoline prices, all these are really important questions that I'm sure we're going to get into. But what we should note is that the president has spoken about a number of policy offsets to mitigate those price increases, ranging from the Treasury actually loosening up some of the sanctions on Russia to sell some oil. You know, we've heard some talk of invoking the Jones Act waiver. That's a temporary fix.On net, we think that these policy offsets are not going to really be enough to mitigate that supply loss that we're getting. That's a 20 million barrel per day loss. Some of these efforts mainly will, kind of, target about 7 or 8 million barrels per day. You're still in a deficit of about 10 to 13 [million]. And that's really meaningful for markets, for consumption as you well know, and everything else in between.Arunima Sinha: That's really helpful perspective, Ariana. And it's also a useful segue to think about the note that we jointly put out a few days ago. And just thinking about what this means for the U.S. consumer. And there, I think there's the first point to start with is that the consumer is now going to be living through the third supply shock in about five years. So, after COVID, after tariffs, here comes the next. And I think this particular oil shock is going to be somewhat different from tariffs in the sense that this is going to hit consumers at the front end and directly. This is not something that is going to have to pass through business costs. And some of them could be absorbed by businesses and not fully passed on to the consumer. So, I think that's an important point.The second point here is that in terms of the share of spending of gasoline out of total spend, we are at pretty low numbers. We're somewhere in the 2 to 3 percent range. So, it could give a little bit of a cushion. So, the longer-term average can be somewhere about 4 percent. So, there could be some cushion. But we know that consumers have already been stretched by, sort of, several years of high prices.And so, the way that we thought about what some of the channels could be for how higher oil prices, which translate into higher gas prices, could matter for the consumer. I think there are, sort of, three to identify.The first one is that it is really just a hit to your real purchasing power because this is a type of good that is actually really hard to substitute away from. And you could look through some of it, at the start. So maybe in the first month you don't react very much. You pull down on some savings; you take out a little bit of short-term credit.But the longer it lasts, the bigger the consumption response is going to be. And the second channel then to identify is – you start to build up some precautionary savings motives because there's this uncertainty that's also lasting for some time. And what do you pull back on? You'll typically pull back on discretionary types of spending.And so, we sized out this impact to say that if oil prices were to be about 50 percent higher and they last for two to three quarters, it could hit real personal spending growth by about 40 [basis points] after 12 months. And most of that is really just coming from the impact on good spending, specifically through durable goods.So, there could be some meaningful impact to real consumer spending in the U.S., if this shock were to go on longer. And the last point I would just say is, you know, how do inflation expectations move? Because that's an important point for the Fed and it's an important point for just people who are thinking about their spending decisions over the next year or so.And one interesting thing I think came out in the University of Michigan survey that came out this Friday; and this was a preliminary survey. About half of it was conducted before the conflict started, and half of it was after the conflict started. And what we saw was that inflation expectations in the year ahead, so the 12-month-ahead expectations that had been trending down, paused.So, they are no longer trending down. And, in its release, the University of Michigan noted that for the responses that were collected after the conflict started, inflation expectations did tick up. And interestingly, the strains were the most for the bottom income cohort. So, they saw a bigger uptick in inflation expectations. They actually also saw a bigger uptick in their unemployment expectations over the next year.Ariana Salvatore: So, Arunima, if I can ask, we've been talking a lot about the K-shape economy this year, right? So, consumption really being led by the upper; let's call it the upper income cohort. When we think about this translation to consumption, like you said, more of the stresses on the lower income side, how do you square that with the economic impact that you guys are expecting?Arunima Sinha: The way that I would square it is the longer it lasts and the greater the, sort of, uncertainty in asset markets – that might actually begin to weigh on the upper income consumer as well. So that might make some of those wealth effects less supportive, than what we have seen, over most of 2025. Just given where consumption has been running in terms of its pace.So not only might we see a bigger strain on the lower-income cohorts as we see this shock lasting longer, we might actually see some pressures not through the direct spending channel on gas, but really just, you know, how it's impacting their balance sheets.Ariana Salvatore: And that's a really important point because it also, to me, resonates with the concept of affordability, which has been a really key political topic for the past few months, I would say.And the way we're thinking about this is, like I mentioned, there are limited policy offsets that can be used to mitigate the potential increase in domestic gasoline prices. And that matters a lot for the midterm elections. Typically voters don't really rank foreign policy as a top issue when it comes to their choice for candidates – in midterm elections and elections in general.But once you see that feed through to, you know, inflation, cost of living, job expectations, that's when it starts to really matter for people. And what we've been saying, it's not a perfect rule of thumb, but looking back at the past few elections. If gasoline prices here in the U.S. are something like $3 a gallon, that tends to be pretty good for the incumbent party. [$]4 [a gallon], let's say it's a little bit more politically challenging. And [$]5 [a gallon], you know, is when you kind of get into that even more challenging territory for the administration and for Republicans in Congress.So again, not a perfect benchmark, but something that we'll be keeping an eye on too as this conflict evolves.Arunima Sinha: Ok! So, we'll be keeping an eye on how that oil disruption plays out and matters for the U.S. consumer.Ariana Salvatore: Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today. Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

Morgan Stanley MUFG 's Japan Equity Strategist Sho Nakazawa talks about the sectors that are leading the current rebound of Japanese stocks and why these gains may be more than a cyclical shift.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Sho Nakazawa, Japan Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.Today: How Japan's Takaichi administration could define Japan's stock market for years to come.It's Tuesday, March 17th, at 3 PM in Tokyo.Sanae Takaichi became Japan's first female prime minister on October 21, 2025. She leads a conservative administration that emphasizes defense spending and economic resilience. When Takaichi took office in February, this signaled the start of a structural pivot in Japan's economy. And markets have responded quickly. Over the past several months, stocks with high exposure to the administration's 17 strategic domains have outperformed TOPIX by 15 percentage points. That kind of divergence suggests something bigger than a cyclical rebound. Capital is positioned to a structural shift. First, there's the Japanese government's increased emphasis on economic security and supply chain resilience. This reflects a philosophical shift. For years efficiency ruled: just-in-time supply chains and global optimization. The pandemic and the reorientation towards a multipolar world changed that workflow. Now the emphasis is on redundancy and autonomy – and this has implications for Defense & Space, Advanced Materials & Critical Minerals, Shipbuilding, and Cybersecurity. The second pillar of Japan's structural market shift is AI and the compute revolution. Yes, some investors worry about overinvestment in AI, but we believe in [the] possibility of nonlinear returns as AI breakthroughs occur. And, keep in mind, AI isn't just software. It requires data-center cooling, communications networks, expanded power grids, and critical minerals. This is a full industrial stack upgrade. Looking further out, the global humanoid robotics market could reach US$7.5 trillion annually by 2050 according to our global robotics team estimates. That's roughly three times the combined 2024 revenue of the world's top 20 automakers at about US$2.5 trillion. The third force reshaping Japan's market is infrastructure. The 2026 budget slated towards national resilience initiatives exceeds ¥5 trillion. With aging infrastructure and intensifying natural disasters, resilience spending relates directly to economic security. Ports, logistics, and communications systems are increasingly becoming strategic assets. Our work suggests the long-term construction cycle is entering an expansion phase as bubble-era buildings from the late 1980s reach replacement timing. That points to durable demand rather than a temporary spike. With all of this said, what's also important is how stock market leadership spreads. It tends to move from upstream to downstream – from materials and power infrastructure, to AI, to defense and communications, and eventually to applications like drug discovery, quantum technologies, cybersecurity, and content. Right now, the strongest three-month returns are in Advanced Materials and Critical Minerals, and in Next-Gen Power and Grid Infrastructure. Meanwhile, areas like Cybersecurity and Content have lagged but remain tightly connected in the network. If leadership broadens, those linkages matter. The real constraint isn't political opposition. It's [the] market itself. If investors decide this is a temporary stimulus rather than sustainable earnings growth, valuations might adjust. But we do believe that Japan's equity market isn't simply rallying. It is reorganizing around economic security, AI infrastructure, and national resilience.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend and colleague today.

Dana Cornell created a Wealth Diagnostic that shows high earners where the system is quietly draining their wealth and how to fix it before it costs them millions. wealthfreedomscorecard.com/richsomersMost people think making more money is the goal—but without the right structure, more income just means bigger leaks.Rich sits down with Dana Cornell to break down the biggest money myths keeping entrepreneurs stuck—even at high income levels. From managing $1.4B at Morgan Stanley to walking away and building his own firm, Dana shares what actually separates people who look wealthy from those who are truly financially free.They unpack why net worth can give a false sense of security, how most high earners are just employees in their own business, and why selling a company doesn't automatically make you rich. The conversation also dives deep into tax strategy, the difference between CPAs and true tax strategists, and why the IRS might be your biggest “business partner” if you don't understand how to play the game.Rich and Dana also break down the concept of building a “family office mindset”—coordinating advisors, creating structure, and focusing on cash flow over vanity metrics. Because at the end of the day, income might make you rich—but structure is what keeps you wealthy.If you're making money but not keeping it—or you're trying to turn income into real financial freedom—this episode is a must-listen.

Why do some people get promoted while others stay stuck—despite working just as hard? In this powerful re-release episode of the Live Greatly podcast, Kristel Bauer sits down with workplace expert Michelle P. King Ph.D. to break down the hidden dynamics behind career advancement, promotions, and success at work. If you're looking to grow your career, strengthen your leadership skills, and stand out in today's competitive workplace, this conversation is packed with insights you can start using right away. Dr. King shares key concepts from her book How Work Works: The Subtle Science of Getting Ahead Without Losing Yourself, including how informal networks, self-awareness, and social dynamics play a major role in who advances—and why. In This Episode, You'll Learn: Why some people get promoted faster than others The hidden factors influencing career advancement How to build and leverage informal networks at work The role of self-awareness in leadership and career growth Common relationship dynamics that create stress at work Practical ways to improve how you work with others Why high performers don't always get ahead—and how to change that A powerful approach to asking better questions for feedback Whether you're an emerging leader, seasoned professional, or someone looking to take the next step in your career, this episode offers valuable strategies to help you move forward with clarity and confidence. ABOUT MICHELLE KING Ph.D:  Dr. Michelle P. King is a globally recognized expert on inequality and organizational culture. Based on over a decade's worth of research, Michelle believes that we need to learn how workplaces work, so we can make them work for everyone. She is the host of a popular podcast called The Fix. Michelle is the author of the bestselling, award-winning book: The Fix: Overcome the Invisible Barriers that are Holding Women Back at Work. Her second book, How Work Works: The Subtle Science of Getting Ahead Without Losing Yourself, publishes internationally on October 10th, 2023 (HarperCollins).  Michelle is an award-winning academic with five degrees including a Bachelor of Arts in Industrial Organizational Psychology, a Master of Arts in Industrial-Organizational Psychology, a Master of Business Administration, a Postgraduate Degree in Journalism and a PhD in Management. Michelle is pursuing a post-doctoral research fellowship with Cranfield University in the United Kingdom. In addition, Michelle is an award winning speaker, having spoken at over 500 events worldwide including conferences like the Nobel Peace Prize Conference, Ellevate Network Conference, The Massachusetts Conference for Women, Texas Conference for Women, SXSW, She Summit and the Pennsylvania Conference for Women.  Michelle is represented by London Speakers Bureau and regularly hosts keynotes, fireside chats or masterclasses with companies like, Amazon, FIFA, Guardian, Dior, FedEx, Netflix, BNP Paribas, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Met Life to name a few. Michelle is the founder of The Culture Practice, a global consultancy that provides leaders with the assessment, development, and inclusion coaching needed to build cultures that value difference. In addition, Michelle is a Senior Advisor to the UN Foundation's Girl Up Campaign, where she leads the NextGen Leadership Development Program, which enables young women to navigate and overcome the barriers to their success. Before this, Michelle was the Director of Inclusion at Netflix. Before that, she was the head of UN Women's Global Innovation Coalition for Change, which includes managing over 30 private sector partnerships to accelerate the achievement of gender equality and women's empowerment. Michelle has two decades of international experience working in the private sector. Website: https://www.michellepking.com  Book: https://www.michellepking.com/how-work-works/  Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/michellepenelopeking  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/michellepenelopeking/  Twitter: https://twitter.com/michellepking  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michellepking/?originalSubdomain=uk  Hosted by Kristel Bauer, keynote speaker, author, and performance expert. Book Kristel for Your Event or Team Bring these strategies to your organization:

Table of Contents: Breaking news about the mosque that went up in Lubbock Texas! Islam is trying to do that under the radar in other states as well so make sure to go to your local council meetings! Islamists Trying To Take Over Japan…And It's Not Working! Emergency Freedom Alerts: 2-10-25-Part 1–Table of Contents:…The REAL Pagan History of Valentine's Day–See Scott Johnson's Teachings on the Occult Calendar It Begins: This Is Their Plan For 2026 (and they’re not hiding it) Recent developments that could have major implications for markets, cybersecurity, and the global financial system! Trumps AI Data Centers Causing Electric Bills To Sky Rocket for Those Affected! Big Beautiful Bill Eats America: Workers wages are being devoured, and the economy is shrinking because of it. Bloated Bill is, in fact, creating the largest transfer of wealth to Trump and his friends in US history.  US Layoff Announcements AI is officially replacing jobs at mass scale in the US! Morgan Stanley cuts 2,500 jobs — 3% of global workforce: LOST TO AI  Jeffrey Epstein’s brutal 7-word verdict on Trump revealed US Military Helping Trump to Build Massive Network of ‘Concentration Camps' Navy Contract Reveals If Passed New MN Gun Bill Would Allow Police To Enter Your Home To Check Your Guns Without A Warrant – SF 4290 VIDEOS: Mass Protest Against Disarming of Virginians– Bill introduced by a Muslim Bangladeshi state senator would ban sale, transfer of most “assault weapons” and high-capacity magazines in Virginia! In February of 2026, this same Muslim Democratic Virginia State Senator (Saddam Azlan Salim) introduced a bill to make “Islamophobia” a hate crime–The bill defines “Islamophobia” as “malicious prejudice or hatred directed toward Islam or Muslims.”! The good news: With its session ending March 14, Virginia's legislature did not pass State Sen. Saddam Salim's (D-Fairfax) bill (S.B. 624) to make “Islamophobia” a crime. The bad news: instead of defeating this measure legislators carried it over to 2027! If the VA Assault weapons bill passes – what next? ‘I Will Never Surrender My Weapon’: Virginians Push Second Amendment Sanctuaries to Stave Off Gun Conficscation VA Gun Stores See Rush on Sales LAWYER: New Gun Confiscation Plans Incoming–10-Year Prison for Owning Your Own Gun in Rhode Island? GLOBAL SPEECH CONTROL AGENDA The United Nations is now openly calling for “coordinated global action” to police what it labels disinformation and hate speech online! PDF: Emergency Freedom Alerts 3-16-26 Click Here To Play The Part 2 Audio Source

Join your host, Syama Bunten as she talks with India Gary-Martin, the former CTO & COO of international banking operations spanning 40 countries. India is also a trusted advisor to Fortune 100 CEOs and founders, and the visionary behind the Act Three Convening — a global gathering redefining what midlife means for women. But India's path from a Cincinnati living room learning blackjack with her stepfather to the executive floors of Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan wasn't planned — it emerged. And that emergence, she'll tell you, was the whole point. In this conversation, India shares what 25 years in global financial services, building a beauty brand from scratch, and coaching some of the world's most senior leaders has taught her — and why the most powerful career move you'll ever make might be the one you accidentally stumble into. Key Topics: How to apply an abundance mindset to wealth-building How to identify values-aligned mentors and sponsors even when they don't look like you Why listeners who feel underpaid need to understand "total compensation" — and how one boss's correction changed India's entire financial trajectory What it really feels like to bet everything on your own business — and what listeners can take away from India's near-bankruptcy experience How to rebuild wealth and professional identity after a major financial setback Why listeners in midlife are navigating more than career transitions — and what India's Act Three Convening offers as a solution What it looks like to use your wealth intentionally — paying for college debt-free, building a home for aging parents, and investing in experiences over things   Connect with India Gary-Martin online:  Website: https://www.leadershipforexecs.com  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/indiagarymartin/  Act Three Convening: https://www.act3convening.com   Find more from Syama Bunten:  Attend a Salon near you: wealthcatalyst.com/salons Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/syama.co/ Join Syama's Substack: https://thewealthcatalystwithsyama.substack.com/  Website: https://wealthcatalyst.com  Download Syama's Free Resources: https://wealthcatalyst.com/resources  Wealth Catalyst Summit: https://wealthcatalyst.com/summits  Speaking: https://syamabunten.com  Big Delta Capital: www.bigdeltacapital.com  

With volatility and oil prices up while Fed policy is easing, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson breaks down why today's selloff is giving flashbacks to March 2025—and why he believes his bull case still holds.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll discuss how the equity market has been processing recent headlines for months. It's Monday, March 16th at 1 pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Last week on the podcast, I noted it was clear to me that the current equity market correction began last fall when liquidity first started to tighten. As soon as funding markets started to show stress from that tightening, the Fed responded by announcing it would end its balance sheet reduction program earlier than expected. It then followed that up by restarting asset purchases in December. This pivot subsequently led to better equity performance in January. It also happened alongside a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar and concentrated returns in emerging markets and commodity-oriented sectors like gold and silver, industrial metals, oil and memory stocks. More recently, the dollar has rallied and these same areas have noticeably cooled off. The key point is that before the attacks in Iran two weeks ago, the correction in equities was already very well advanced in both time and price. In fact, 50 percent of all stocks in the Russell 3000 are now down 20 percent from their 52-week highs. In many ways, we find ourselves in a similar position to last year. Recall that the major indices started to accelerate lower in February and early March. The concern at that time was centered around tariffs. But like today equity markets had been trading poorly for months under the surface on additional concerns that had nothing to do with tariffs. More specifically, equity markets had been worried about risks related to DeepSeek, immigration controls, and DOGE. Tariffs then provided the final blow. This time around, markets have been worried about AI disruption on labor markets, private credit defaults and liquidity tightness well before the Iran conflict escalated. Now it's interesting to note – but not surprising – that crude and volatility began to rise in January, signaling the market was ahead of this risk, too. Corrections typically don't end though until the best stocks and highest quality indices get hit, and that usually takes a capitulatory shock. Last year, this was Liberation Day. This time around, that event is the Iran conflict and concern about a sustained rise in crude prices above $100 a barrel. This final corrective phase has begun, in our view, with the S&P 500 having its worst two-week stretch since last April. To be clear, I don't expect this capitulation or drawdown to be as bad as last year for several reasons. First, last year's events came at the end of what we were calling a rolling recession at the time and effectively marked the end of that downturn. That means equities were pricing in a recession at the lows in April 2025 and that's why the S&P 500 was down 20 percent from its highs. Second, the current backdrop for earnings and economic growth is much better than a year ago. Third, fiscal support is much greater today, too. Specifically, personal income tax cuts are flowing through right now with tax refunds running 17 percent higher year-over-year. Tax incentives in the [One] Big Beautiful Bill [act] should drive higher capital spending. Lastly, the Fed is much more accommodative with asset purchases versus balance sheet contraction in 2025. Bottom line, equity markets have been digesting many of the concerns for months that are now hitting the headlines. We think this means that we are closer to the end of this correction rather than the beginning and investors should be getting ready to buy any final capitulation that may occur on the next bad headline. One scenario that might create that final downdraft is a combination of a more hawkish Fed this week on backward looking inflation concerns combined with Triple Witching options expiration. Or maybe the upcoming trade meeting between the United States and China is delayed or cancelled. Whatever it might be, market lows happen faster than tops. So be ready to add risk in anticipation of the bull market resuming. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Starting the third week of the war in the Middle East, Morgan Stanley's chief of U.S. equity strategy Mike Wilson discusses the energy and broader markets and considers the likelihood of a recession in the short term. On the ground in Dubai, CNBC's Dan Murphy reports on Iran's strikes on the UAE's critical energy infrastructure and transportation hub. The Strait of Hormuz is pivotal to the conflict; President Trump is reportedly planning a coalition of naval escorts through the channel key for the world's energy supply. Michelle Caruso-Cabrera offers her perspective on the oil markets, investor sentiment, and geopolitics. Plus, the U.S. and China are holding trade talks in Paris, and a federal judge has blocked subpoenas to the Federal Reserve in the criminal investigation of Jerome Powell.    Steve Liesman - 13:13 Mike Wilson - 19:12 Michelle Caruso-Cabrera - 27:48   In this episode: Dan Murphy, @dan_murphy Steve Liesman, @steveliesman Robert Frank, @robtfrank Michael Santoli, @michaelsantoli Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What were the most important legal and regulatory developments in crypto this month? In this episode, we review developments from stablecoin rulemaking and DeFi liability cases to the ongoing fight over prediction markets. Jonathan Schmalfeld is Director of Policy at The Digital Chamber, where he focuses on crypto policy, digital asset legislation, and regulatory developments in Washington.Timestamps➡️ 1:07 — SEC guidance allowing broker-dealers to apply a 2% capital haircut to payment stablecoins➡️ 4:37 — OCC's GENIUS Act implementation proposal and the debate over stablecoin yield restrictions➡️ 11:14 — The Promoting Innovation and Blockchain Development Act and developer liability protections➡️ 17:27 — Federal court dismissal of claims against Uniswap and what it means for DeFi developers➡️ 22:55 — How Kalshi enforced insider trading rules in its CFTC-regulated prediction markets➡️ 27:37 — Kalshi's preliminary injunction against Tennessee regulators and the federal preemption fight➡️ 31:15 — Why prediction market litigation could eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court➡️ 36:25 — Institutional adoption: Morgan Stanley custody plans, Kraken's Fed master account, and crypto banking licenses➡️ 40:24 — Operation Chokepoint 2.0 and proposed rules eliminating “reputational risk” in bank supervision➡️ 43:23 — Why competition between crypto and traditional finance is acceleratingSponsor: Day One Law, a boutique corporate law firm founded by Nick Pullman. Nick and his team at Day One provide strategic legal counsel to startups, crypto projects, and Web3 innovators. ⁠You can get in contact with them via this link⁠: ⁠⁠https://www.dayonelaw.xyz/#contactResources:

l episodio 111 llegó con todo.Arrancamos con la Argentina Week en Nueva York, el evento organizado desde Cancillería para atraer inversión al país, con Milei como figura central y JP Morgan como gran protagonista detrás de escena. ¿Es el comienzo de algo real o simplemente otro mini Davos que no se traduce en dólares concretos?Después nos metemos en algo que muy poca gente está mirando de cerca: la crisis silenciosa de los mercados de crédito privado. BlackRock, Morgan Stanley y JP Morgan ya están limitando los retiros de inversores. Un descalce entre liquidez y deuda que empieza a sonar conocido.También hablamos de la noticia tech más impactante del momento: Lovable, una startup sueca de vibe coding con apenas 146 empleados, pasó de facturar $1M a $400M de ARR en solo 14 eses. Una de las curvas de crecimiento más brutales que vimos en años.Luego analizamos la pelea entre Anthropic y el Pentágono. El gobierno de EE.UU. quería usar los modelos de Anthropic sin restricciones de seguridad para dirigir misiles. Anthropic dijo que no, fue declarada riesgo de seguridad nacional y demandó al gobierno. El resultado: millones de usuarios migrando de ChatGPT a Claude.Cerramos con un tema que está explotando en los círculos de biohacking: los péptidos. Ozempic, Retatrutide, BPC-157 y todo lo que viene después. Qué son, cómo funcionan, cuáles no están aprobados todavía y por qué cada vez más gente los está usando igual.

Our Head of Asia Technology Research Shawn Kim explains what disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could mean for the global semiconductor supply chain and the immediate future of AI infrastructure.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Shawn Kim, Head of Morgan Stanley's Asia Technology Team.Today: why the Strait of Hormuz closure may matter to the global technology industry.It's Friday, March 13th, at 8 pm in Taipei. AI and advanced chips may represent the cutting edge of technology, but they depend on something far more basic: that's energy. And a large share of that energy flows through one narrow shipping lane in the Middle East – the Strait of Hormuz. When energy supply chains are disrupted, the effects can quickly ripple into semiconductor manufacturing.Advanced semiconductor fabrication is, in fact, one of the most energy‑intensive industrial processes in the world. Take Taiwan, for example – home of the world's largest share of leading-edge chip production. Just one major manufacturer alone accounts for roughly 9–10 percent of the country's total electricity consumption. That scale of energy use means the stability of power supply is critical.Taiwan relies heavily on imported LNG to generate electricity. But storage levels are limited. It maintains roughly one and half weeks worth of LNG inventory, with several additional weeks supplied by vessels currently at sea. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were significantly disrupted, that supply chain could come under pressure. The immediate impact might not necessarily be an outright shortage – but rising energy costs could still affect semiconductor production economics. And that's important because advanced chips are foundational to everything from cloud computing to artificial intelligence systems.Energy isn't the only potential bottleneck. Another lesser-known input in the semiconductor ecosystem is sulfur. More than 90 percent of the world's sulfur supply is produced as a by‑product of oil refining. That sulfur is then used to produce sulfuric acid, a key chemical that supports semiconductor materials, metal processing, and battery components.Disruptions in oil refining tied to shipping constraints or energy market shocks could also affect sulfur supply. In other words, a disruption in energy markets could trigger second‑order effects across multiple layers of the technological supply chain. And those effects extend beyond chips themselves. The downstream impact touches industries tied to electrification, data centers, and advanced electronics manufacturing.History also offers some lessons learned about how technology markets react when energy prices spike. During periods of major oil price surges – such as in 2008 and again in 2021 through 2022 – semiconductor equities experienced significant drawdowns. In both cases, semiconductor stocks declined by roughly 30 percent before reaching an inflection point. The mechanism is fairly intuitive. Higher oil prices raise costs across the economy and can weaken consumer spending. At the same time, companies building energy‑intensive infrastructure – like large‑scale AI data centers – may face higher operating costs and low revenues.So when energy markets move sharply, technology markets often move with them. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz wouldn't automatically halt chip production, but it could ripple through power costs, materials supply, and the economics of building AI infrastructure. And that highlights an important reality for investors: the future of technology isn't just written in code. It's powered by energy, by infrastructure, and the fragile global networks behind the digital economy.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

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Now it's Morgan Stanley's turn. Yesterday it was Cliffwater. Before that BlackRock and Blackstone. Of course Blue Owl. Morgan Stanley's $8 billion North Haven Private Income Fund becomes the latest shadow banking giant to both get hit with massive investor withdrawals and to deny most of them. Cliffwater also decided it was going to do the same. No wonder you keep hearing more and more people make 2008 comparisons – and there's one more you definitely need keep in mind. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In this episode of The Fintech Combine, host Kris Kovacs sits down with Shawn Malamed, co-founder and CEO of Spiral, to discuss how credit unions and community banks can build more heart-centered digital banking experiences. Shawn shares his journey from building fintech companies and leading innovation at Morgan Stanley to launching Spiral, a platform designed to help members save money, reach personal goals, and give back to their communities through everyday banking activity. They explore why personalization, financial wellness, and community impact are becoming essential for deposit growth and retention—and how credit unions can use modern fintech tools to compete while staying true to their mission.Subscribe for more fintech insights!

Our co-heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan discuss the impact of upcoming regulatory changes on U.S. mortgage rates and home sales.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: It is March and there's some madness going on. I'm Jay Bacow, here with Jim Egan, noted Wahoo Wa fan. James Egan: Hey, it looks like Virginia's going to be back in the tournament this year, hoping for a three seed, looking like a four seed. It's the first year that my son is really excited about it. So, hoping we can win a few games. Jay Bacow: Let's hope they don't lose the first game and make him cry like you did a few years ago. But … Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow: Today, with everything going on in the world, we thought it'd be prudent to discuss the U.S. mortgage and housing market. It's Thursday, March 12th at 10:30am in New York. James Egan: Jay, as you mentioned, there is a lot going on in markets right now, but hey, people need to live somewhere. And those somewheres remain pretty unaffordable. But this administration has been very focused on affordability, and we also have some updates on what is clearly the most exciting part of the housing and mortgage markets – regulation. What's going on there? Jay Bacow: Look, nothing gets me more excited than thinking about the regulatory outlook for the mortgage market. We've been focusing a lot on what's happening in D.C. with possible changes that could be helping out affordability, changes to the investor program, changes to the policy rate. But Michelle Bowman, who is the Vice Chair of Supervision, has been recently on the tape saying that we could get an update and a proposal for the Basel Endgame by the end of this month; and that proposal for the Basel Endgame is likely to make it easier for banks to hold loans on their balance sheet. It's going to give banks excess capital and the combination of these, along with some other changes that are going to be coming from the Fed, the FDIC and the OCC around: For instance, the GSIB surcharge that our banking analysts led by Manan Gosalia have spoken about – it's really going to help out the mortgage market in our view. James Egan: Alright, so freeing up capital, helping the mortgage market. When we think about the implications to affordability specifically, what do you think it means for mortgage rates? Jay Bacow: Right. So, it's important that [when] we think about the mortgage rate, we realize where it's coming from. The mortgage rate starts off with the level of Treasury rates, and then you add upon that a spread. And the spread is dependent among a number of different factors. But one of the biggest ones is just the demand. And one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been so high over the previous four years was (a) Treasury rates were high, but also the spread was wide. And we think one of the biggest reasons why the spread was wide is that the domestic banks, who are the largest asset type investor in mortgages – they own $3 trillion of mortgages – basically weren't buying them over the past four years. And one of the reasons they weren't buying was they didn't have the regulatory clarity. And so, if the banks come back, that will cause that spread to tighten, which will likely cause the mortgage rate to come down. That is presumably, Jim, good about affordability, right? James Egan: Yes. And I want to clarify, or at least emphasize, that affordability itself has been improving. Over the course of the past four to five months at this point, we've been close to, if not at the lowest mortgage rate we've seen in three years. And when we think about what that has practically done to the monthly principal and interest payment on homes purchased today. Like that monthly payment on the median priced home is down $150 over the past year. That's about a 7 percent decrease. When we lay in incomes – or when we layer in incomes to get into that actual affordability equation, we're at our most affordable place since the second quarter of 2022. So yes, big picture, this is still a challenge to affordability environment. But it's not as challenged as it's been over the past three years. Jay Bacow: All right, so affordability improving. It's still challenged though. What does that mean for home prices then? James Egan: So, when we think about the home price implication of mortgage rates coming down; of mortgage rates coming down in an environment where incomes are going up – we're thinking about demand for shelter, purchase volumes and supply of that shelter. And demand really has not reacted to the improved affordability environment. That's not unusual. Normally takes about 12 months for affordability improvement to pull through in terms of increased transaction volumes. But we do think that the lock-in effect that we've talked about in detail on this podcast in the past, that is going to play a role here. Mortgage rates end of February finally hit a five handle, really, for the first time in three years. They're back above that now with the volatility in the interest rate markets. But from 4 percent to 6 percent, mortgage rates is effectively an air pocket. We don't think you're going to get a lot of unlocking at these levels. So we think that transaction volumes will pick up. We're calling for 3 to 4 percent growth in purchase volumes this year. But they've been largely flat for two to three years at this point. And more importantly, any improvement in affordability that comes from a decrease in mortgage rates is going to lead to commensurately more supply alongside that growth in demand – which is going to keep home prices, specifically, very range bound here. The pace of growth is slowed to about 1.3 to 1.5 percent right now. We've been here for four or five months. We think we're pretty much going to stay here. We we're calling for 2 percent growth, so a little bit acceleration. But we think you're in a very range bound home price market. Jay Bacow: All right, so home prices range bound, affordability improved. But still has a little bit of room to go. Some possible tailwinds from the deregulatory path that will make homes being a little bit more affordable. Fair amount going on. Jim, always a pleasure speaking to you James Egan: And always great speaking to you too, Jay. And to all of our regular listeners, thank you for adding us to your playlist. Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.Jay Bacow: Go smash that subscribe button!

Bitcoin is stuck around $70K as macro pressure builds and cracks begin appearing across traditional finance. Oil prices are spiking on geopolitical tensions, while major banks like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are quietly restricting withdrawals and tightening lending in private credit markets as investors rush for the exits. With liquidity tightening and financial stress rising, the key question is whether Bitcoin is simply trapped in macro chop or preparing for its next major move as the system starts to strain.

Solus' Dan Greenhaus and CIBC's Chris Harvey tell us what the recent developments out of Iran and the big moves in oil could mean for the market in the days and weeks ahead. Plus, Wilfred Frost caught up with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the strait of Hormuz, the war in Iran and much more. He brings us some of the highlights. And, Morgan Stanley's Chris Toomey is one of the country's top financial advisors tells us how he is advising his clients right now. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In recognition of International Women's Month, I'm releasing a montage of advice from some of the most accomplished women in our industry.   These remarkable leaders have navigated one of the most demanding and historically male-dominated corners of business and have done it with conviction, resilience, and extraordinary leadership.   If you're a young professional, a student considering this industry, or a leader developing the next generation of talent, this episode is worth your time.   Sunaina Sinha - Global Head, Private Capital Advisory, and Senior Managing Director, Raymond James https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000667167867   Shannon Zoller - Founder, Tephra Advisors https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000552841977   Neha Markle - Managing Director, Morgan Stanley https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000633494095   Caroline Stevens - Investor, MPK Equity Partners https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000597747344   Chrisanne Corbett - Managing Director, KPMG https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000432826264   Deborah Smith - Co-Founder and CEO, The CenterCap Group https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000557619821   Devon Kirk - General Partner, Portage Capital Solutions  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000658066071   Franny Jones - Partner, Investor Relations, The Sterling Group https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000452341799   Gina Luna - Partner, GP Capital https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000555838972   Gretchen Perkins - Partner(Origination), Avance Investment Management https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000453890941   Kristin Johnson - Managing Director, Altamont Capital Partners https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000726285319   Lauren Moohalland - Waypoint Ridge Capital https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000468986627   Lucy Heintz - Partner, Head of Energy Infrastructure, Actis https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000701104377   Michelle Noon - Founder and Managing Partner, Clearhaven Partners https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000733152917   Neda Vakilian - Partner, Actis https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-equity-fast-pitch/id1359329939?i=1000713638680

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Andre Dos Santos y Juan Manuel de los Reyes navegan una jornada donde la presión inflacionaria, la geopolítica y las grietas en el crédito privado convergen para pintar un panorama de mercado más complejo de lo que los titulares sugieren. El dúo abre con el mercado de renta fija, donde el empinamiento de la curva  genera preguntas sobre las expectativas de inflación a largo plazo y lo que eso implica para la renta variable y el costo del capital. Desde ahí, pasan al petróleo, que acumula ganancias semanales históricas mientras la Agencia Internacional de Energía responde con el mayor release de reservas de emergencia de su historia; sin embargo, el verdadero nudo sigue siendo el Estrecho de Hormuz y la continuidad del conflicto. La segunda mitad del episodio aterriza en los datos macro del día, que muestran sorpresas en balanza comercial, y cierra con el crédito privado, donde fondos de nombres como Morgan Stanley y Cliffwater  están limitando retiros tras solicitudes récord de redención, justo cuando las advertencias sobre defaults en el sector software empiezan a hacer ruido.El hilo que atraviesa todo el episodio es la tensión entre señales de resiliencia económica a corto plazo y presiones estructurales que se acumulan en silencio. 

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Martijn Rats discuss why a prolonged disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would be unprecedented—and nearly impossible for the market to absorb.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today on the program we're going to talk about why investors everywhere are tracking ships through the Strait of Hormuz.It's Wednesday, March 11th at 2pm in London.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, the oil market, which is often volatile, has been historically volatile over the last couple of weeks following renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran.Now, there are a lot of different angles to this, but the oil market is really at the center of the market's focus on this conflict. And so, I think before we get into the specifics, I think it's helpful to set some context. How big is the global oil market and where does the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz fit within that global picture?Martijn Rats: Yeah, so the global oil consumption is a little bit more than a 100 million barrels a day. But that splits in two parts. There is a pipeline market and there is a seaborne market. And when it comes to prices, the seaborne market is really where it's at. If you're sitting in China, you're buying oil from the Middle East, all of a sudden, it's not available. Sure, if there is a pipeline that goes from Canada into the United States, that doesn't really help you all that much.Andrew Sheets: So, it's the oil on the ships that really matters.Martijn Rats: It's the oil on ships that is the flexible part of the market that we can redirect to where the oil is needed. And that is also the market where prices are formed. The seaborne market is in the order of 60 million barrels a day. So, only a subset of the 100 [million]. Now relative to that 60 million barrel a day, the Strait of Hormuz flows about 20 [million]. So, the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for about a third of seaborne supply, which is, of course, very large and therefore, you know, very critical to the system.Andrew Sheets: And I think an important thing we should also discuss here, which we were just discussing earlier today on another call, is – this is a market that could be quite sensitive to actually quite small disruptions in oil. So, can you give just some sense of sensitivity? I mean, in normal times, what sort of disruptions, in terms of barrels of oil, kind of, move markets; get investors' attention?Martijn Rats: Yeah, look, this is part of why this situation is so unusual, and oil analysts really sort of struggle with this. Look normally, at relative to the 100 million barrels a day of consumption, we care about supply demand imbalances of a couple of 100,000 barrels a day. That becomes interesting.If that, increases to say 1 million barrel a day, over- or undersupplied, you can expect prices to move. You can expect them to move by meaningful amounts. We can write research; the clients can trade. You have a tradable idea in front of you. When that becomes 2 to 3 million barrels a day, either side, you have major historical market moving events.So, in [20]08-09, oil famously fell from over 100 [million] down to something like 30 [million], on the basis that the oil market was 2-2.5 million barrel day oversupplied for two quarters. In 2022, we all thought – this actually never happened, but we all thought that Russia was going to lose about 3 million barrel day of supply. And on that basis, just on the basis of the expectation alone, Brent went to $130 per barrel. So, 2-3 [million] either side you have historically large moves. Now we're talking about 20 [million].Andrew Sheets: And I think that's what's so striking. I mean, again, I think investors, people listening to this, they can do that arithmetic too. If this is a market where 2 to 3 million barrels a day have caused some of the largest moves that we've seen in history, something that's 20 [million] is exceptional. And I think it's also fair to say this type of closure of the Strait [of Hormuz] is something we haven't seen before.Martijn Rats: No, which also made it very hard to forecast, by the way. Because the historical track records did not point in that direction, and yet here we are. The historical track record – look, you can look at other major disruptions historically.The largest disruption in the history of the oil market is the Suez Crisis in the mid-1950s that took away about 10 percent of global oil consumption. This is easily double that. So really unusual. If you look at supply and demand shocks of this order of magnitude, you can think about COVID. In April 2020, for one month, at the peak of COVID, when we're all sitting at home. Nobody driving, nobody flying. Yeah, we lost very briefly 20 million barrels a day of demand. Now we're losing 20 million barrels a day of supply. So, look, the sign is flipped, but it's in the same order of magnitude. And yeah, these are unusual events that you wouldn't actually, sort of, forecast them that easily. But that is what is in front of us at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So, I think the next kind of logical question is if shipping remains disrupted, and I'd love for you to talk a little bit about, you know, you're sitting there with satellite maps on your screen tracking shipping, which is – a development. But, you know, what are the options that are available in the region, maybe globally to temporarily balance this supply and create some offset?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, like of course when we have a big disruption like this one, of course the market is going to try to solve for this. There are a few blocks that we can work with. I'll run you through them one by one, including some of the numbers. But very quickly you arrive at the conclusion that this is; this puzzle – we can't really solve it.Like in 2022, the market was very stressed. We thought Russia was going to lose 3 million barrels a day of supply, but we could move things around in our supply demand model. Russia oil goes to China and India. Oil that they buy, we can get in Europe, we can move stuff around to kind of sort of solve a puzzle.This puzzle is very, very difficult to solve. So, through the Strait of Hormuz, 15 million barrels a day have crude, 5 million barrels a day of refined product, 20 million barrels a day in total. What can we do?Well, the biggest offset, is arguably the Saudi EastWest pipeline. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that effectively allows it to ship oil to the Red Sea at the Port of Yanbu, where it can be evacuated on tankers there. That pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels a day. We think it was probably already flowing at something like 3 million barrels a day. So, there's probably an incremental 4 [million] that can become available through that. That's the biggest block, that we can see of workaround capacity, so to say.After that the numbers do get smaller. The UAE has a pipeline that goes through Fujairah that's also beyond the Strait of Hormuz. We think there is maybe 0.5 million barrel a day of capacity there. Then you're basically, sort of, done within the region, and you have to look globally for other sources of oil.If there are sanctions relief, maybe on Russian oil, you can find a 0.5 million barrel day there. Here, there and everywhere. 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day. But the numbers get…Andrew Sheets: It's still not… So, if you kind of put all of those, you know, kind of, almost in a best-case scenario relative to the 20 million that's getting disrupted.Martijn Rats: If you add another one or two from a massive SPR release, the fastest release from SPR…Andrew Sheets: That's the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Earlier today, we got an announcement, that the IEA is proposing to release 400 million barrels from Strategic Reserve across its member countries. That is a very large number. But – and that is important. But more important is how fast can it flow because the extraction rate from these tanks is not infinite. The fastest ever rate of SPR release is only 1.3 million barrels a day. Now, maybe the circumstances are so extraordinary, we can do better than that and we can get it to 2 [million]. But beyond that, you're really in very, very uncharted territory.So maybe in the region, work around sanctions relief, SPR release, we can probably find like 7 million barrels a day out of a problem that is 20 [million]. You're left with another 13 [million]. The 13 [million] is four times what we thought Russia would lose. So, you're left with this conclusion: Look, this really needs to come to an end.Andrew Sheets: And the other rebalancing mechanism, which again, you know, when we come back to markets and forecasting, this is obviously price. And, you know, you talk about this idea of demand destruction, which I think we could paraphrase as – the price is higher so people use less of it and then you can rebalance the market that way.But give us just a little sense of, you know, as you and your team are sitting there modeling, how do you think about, kind of, the price of oil? Where it would need to go to – to potentially rebalance this the other way.Martijn Rats: Yeah, that price is very high. So, what it's a[n] really interesting analysis to do is to look at the historical frequency distribution of inflation adjusted oil prices.You take 20 years of oil prices. You convert it all in money of the day, adjusted for inflation, and then simply plot the frequency distribution. What you get is not one single bell curve centered around the middle with some variation around the midpoint. You get, sort of, two partially overlapping bell curves.There is a slightly larger one, which is, sort of, the normal regime. Lower prices, 60, 70, 80 bucks. There's a lot of density there in the frequency distribution, that's where we are normally. What's interesting is that actually, if you go from there to higher prices, there are prices that are actually very rare in inflation adjusted terms.Like a [$] 100-110. In nominal terms, we might feel that that has happened. In inflation adjusted terms, these prices are extremely rare. They are way rarer than prices that live even further to the right. [$]130, 140.The oil market has this other regime of these very high prices. If you go back in history, when did those prices prevail? They always prevailed in periods where we asked the same question. What is the demand destruction price? And yeah, to erode demand by a somewhat meaningful quantity, yeah, you end up in that regime. These very high prices, like [$]130. And it's… It's not a gradual scale. You sort of at one point shoot through these levels and that's where you then end up.Andrew Sheets: It's quite, quite serious stuff.Martijn Rats: Well, yeah. Also, because we can casually say in the oil market, ‘Oh, demand erosion has to be the answer.' But we don't erode demand in isolation. Like, you know, diesel is trucking. Yeah, jet is flying. NAFTA is petrochemicals.Andrew Sheets: These are real core parts of economic activity.Martijn Rats: It's all GDP.Andrew Sheets: So maybe Martijn, in conclusion, let me give you a slightly different scenario. Let's say that the conflict goes on for another couple of weeks, but then there is a resolution. Traffic goes back to normal. Walk us through a little bit of what that would mean. You know, kind of how long does it take to get back to normal in a market like this?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, if you say, weeks, I would say that is an uncomfortable period of time actually.Andrew Sheets: Feel free to use a slightly different scenario.Martijn Rats: If you say days. Let's say next week something happens, the whole thing comes soon to end. Look, then we will have logistical supply chain issues. But look, we can work through that.There is at the moment somewhat of an air pocket in the global oil supply chain. There should be oil tankers on their way to refineries for arrival in April and May that currently are not. So, we will have hiccups and things need to be rerouted and we draw on some inventories here or there, but… And that will keep commodity prices tense, I would imagine. The equity market will probably look through it.We'll have a month or six weeks, not more than two months, I would imagine of logistical issues to sort out. Look, of course, if that, you know, doesn't happen, then we're back in the scenario that we discussed. But yeah, look, that that's equally true. If it's short, we can sort of live with a disruption.Andrew Sheets: It's fair to say that this is a situation where days really matter, where weeks make a big difference.Martijn Rats: Oh, totally. Look, the oil industry has built in various, sort of, compensatory measures, I think. You know, inventories along the supply chains. But nothing of the scale that can work with this. I mean, this is truly yet another order of magnitude.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: My pleasure.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

How do global companies make confident decisions when supply chains are constantly disrupted by tariffs, geopolitical tension, shifting consumer demand, and unpredictable global events? In this episode of Tech Talks Daily, I sat down with Dr. Ashwin Rao, EVP of AI and R&D at o9 Solutions, to talk about how artificial intelligence is changing the way organizations plan, forecast, and respond to uncertainty. Ashwin brings a fascinating mix of experience to the conversation. After earning a PhD in mathematics and computer science, he spent fifteen years on Wall Street working on derivatives trading strategies at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley before moving into the world of enterprise technology. Today, he operates at the meeting point between business and academia as both a senior AI leader and an adjunct professor at Stanford University. Our conversation begins with Ashwin's unusual career path and how those early experiences in finance shaped the way he thinks about risk, decision making, and real world AI deployment. The journey from theoretical mathematics to trading floors and eventually into Silicon Valley offers an interesting lens on how analytical thinking can travel across industries and still remain highly relevant. We then move into the work happening at o9 Solutions, where AI is helping organizations make smarter decisions across supply chain planning, demand forecasting, and inventory management. In a world that Ashwin describes using the acronym VUCA, volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, businesses are under pressure to react faster and make better informed decisions. He explains how enterprise AI platforms can connect fragmented data across departments and create a more complete view of the business. One example he shares brings the concept down to earth. Even predicting how many bananas a grocery store should stock on any given day requires analyzing internal sales trends alongside external signals such as weather, social media trends, and economic conditions. Machine learning systems can now process those signals in real time and continuously update forecasts so businesses can respond quickly to changes. We also explore the rise of neuro- and symbolic AI, a concept Ashwin believes represents the next stage in enterprise decision-making. Rather than relying only on large language models, this approach blends the structured reasoning of symbolic systems with the pattern recognition of neural networks. The result, he suggests, feels less like a chatbot and more like having an expert coach embedded inside the decision-making process. Along the way, we also discuss why many organizations still struggle to embed AI successfully. Technology is only one piece of the puzzle. Ashwin believes the toughest obstacle is organizational change management, bringing teams together, connecting data across silos, and helping leaders guide their organizations through transformation. If you have ever wondered how AI moves beyond chatbots and into the systems that quietly power global supply chains, this conversation offers a thoughtful and practical perspective. So, how prepared is your organization to make decisions in a world defined by volatility and uncertainty, and could AI become the trusted partner that helps guide those choices? Useful Links Ashwin's blog Ashwin's LinkedIn o9 Solutions Website o9 LinkedIn  

Canada processes MAID applications same-day. The median wait for surgery is 28.6 weeks. This isn't broken — this is the system working as designed.In this episode:⚡ CANADA & MAID — A disabled man is pursuing medically assisted death to avoid homelessness. Not terminal. Not mentally ill. Just afraid of being on the street. We break down the same-day MAID protocol, 76,475 deaths since 2016, and what it tells you about Canadian governance.

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could make stocks and bonds move in the same direction, challenging one of the key principles of portfolio diversification.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist. Today: what happens if your main diversification strategy suddenly stops working because of oil price moves? It's Tuesday, March 10th, at 10am in New York. For decades, investors have relied on the idea that stocks and bonds return tend to move in opposite directions. When equities fall, bonds often rise, helping cushion portfolio losses. But that relationship isn't guaranteed. Between 2021 and 2023, coming out of the pandemic, stocks and bonds sold off together, and the traditional 60/40 equity-bond portfolio suffered its worst annual performance in nearly a century. Now, recent geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices are raising a familiar concern for investors: Could that uncertainty dynamic return? At first glance, oil prices may seem like a narrow commodity story. But in reality, they can shape the entire macroeconomic environment. The classic negative correlation between stocks and bonds depends on a fairly simple economic pattern: growth and inflation moving in the same direction. When economic growth accelerates, inflation often rises as well. In that environment, equities may perform well while bonds weaken. But when growth and inflation move in opposite directions, the relationship between stocks and bonds can flip. That's what happened coming out of the pandemic. Bond investors worried about rising inflation, while equity investors were worried about slowing growth. In that scenario, both asset classes' returns declined at the same time.A sustained oil price shock could potentially recreate those conditions. Higher oil prices can push up inflation while also weighing on economic activity – a combination that economists often refer to as stagflation. If markets begin to price in that kind of environment again, the relationship between stocks and bonds could shift back toward that less favorable regime. Despite recent volatility tied to tensions in the Middle East, the relationship between stocks and bonds today still largely reflects the traditional pattern. Overall, stock-bond returns correlation remains negative, meaning bonds can still help diversify equity risk. In fact, correlations between U.S. stocks and 2-year Treasury returns have been trending negative since 2024, and on a longer-term basis they are now extremely negative relative to the past three years. But the key point here is that not all bonds behave the same way. Many investors think of government bonds as a single asset class. But the maturity of the bond – how long it takes to repay – matters a lot for diversification. Shorter-dated bonds, such as 2-year U.S. Treasuries, have maintained stronger negative correlations with equities. Longer-dated bonds, however – particularly the 30-year Treasury – have behaved a bit differently. Their correlation with stocks has been stickier and less negative, partly because markets increasingly view longer-dated bonds as risky. As a result, the difference between how 2-year and 30-year Treasuries move relative to stocks has remained unusually wide for several years. In recent days oil prices have been rising -- linked in part to concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. That's pushing up yields at the front end of the Treasury curve, creating what's known as a bear-flattening. In other words, short-term interest rates are rising faster than long-term ones, reflecting markets placing more emphasis on inflation risks. And that brings us to the key questions for investors: Which risks will dominate from here – is it going to be higher inflation or slower growth? The answer could determine which assets provide better diversifications in the months ahead. So the takeaway is this: Higher oil prices and geopolitical risks could increase the chances that stocks and bonds move together again. But diversification isn't disappearing. It's just becoming more nuanced. For investors, the real question isn't whether bonds diversify portfolios. It's which bonds do. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Kohl's (KSS) experienced see-sawing price action following a better-than-expected earnings report. However, Diane notes the company continues to face long-term headwinds as year-over-year revenue falls. Qualcomm (QCOM) moved lower after BofA downgraded the stock while CrowdStrike (CRWD) gained on a Morgan Stanley upgrade. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Morgan Stanley sees CrowdStrike (CRWD) as best in class for cybersecurity. Marley Kayden takes investors through the firm's upgrade and price target for CrowdStrike and how it reflects against the broader software space. Tim Biggam offers an example options trade for the cybersecurity company. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

On this episode of the Insurance Coffee House, Nick Hoadley is joined by Dr Susan Fleming, an experienced independent director with more than 25 years across insurance, asset management, and financial services. Susan currently serves on the boards of RLI Corp and Virtus Investment Partners, and has previously held director roles at Endurance Specialty, PXRE Group, Quanta Capital, and others.Susan shares how she first entered financial services, starting at SNL Securities before moving into Morgan Stanley's M&A group focused on financial institutions. That early exposure led her into insurance private equity at Insurance Partners, later Capital Z Partners, where she spent years working on complex and often distressed insurance transactions. She reflects on the pace and intensity of that period, the analytical grounding it gave her, and how it led to her first public board seat at just 29 years old.The conversation explores what it was like entering the boardroom at a young age, why private equity-backed board roles differ from independent directorships, and how board work has changed over the past two decades. Susan describes a clear shift toward greater professionalisation, higher expectations of directors, more scrutiny from shareholders and regulators, and a noticeable rise in overall board quality and rigour.Nick and Susan also discuss crisis governance in detail. Susan reflects on her experience joining Quanta Capital during a difficult period, helping oversee a runoff and sale process, and what that taught her about board teamwork, communication, and staying focused on the core objective of delivering value for shareholders. She also shares the lessons from Endurance Specialty, where the board supported a sale that created a strong outcome for shareholders, employees, and customers, even though selling the company had not originally been the plan.The conversation then broadens into Susan's wider career beyond the boardroom. She explains why she chose to leave private equity, pursue a PhD in management, and move into academia at Cornell University. There, she taught entrepreneurship, women in leadership, negotiations, and entrepreneurial finance, while also helping develop curriculum and contributing to the Bank of America Institute for Women's Entrepreneurship. Susan reflects on how academic work, startup thinking, and board experience strengthened each other, particularly around innovation, experimentation, and helping larger organisations stay open to new ideas.Nick and Susan close with practical advice for executives seeking their first board role. Susan emphasises the importance of networking, having a clear board bio, preparing properly before joining a board, and making sure any opportunity aligns with both your expertise and your reputation. She is clear that challenging situations can be worthwhile if you can genuinely contribute, but that any question mark around integrity is a reason to walk away. Above all, she argues that directors should come prepared, check their ego, listen carefully, and earn trust through integrity, judgment, and thoughtful contribution.Connect with Dr Susan Fleming on LinkedIn to follow her work across insurance, governance, entrepreneurship, and board leadership.The Insurance Coffee House Podcast is brought to you by Insurance Search.We are a global Insurance Executive Search Consultancy, supporting Insurance and Insurtech businesses to attract and retain the very best insurance talent.Find out more about showcasing your employer brand as a guest on the Insurance Coffee House Podcast or sign up to our News and Insights.Or follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter or Instagram.Insurance Executive Search Consultants in USA, London and Bermuda.Copyright Insurance Search 2025 - All Rights Reserved.

Summary:This episode features an in-depth discussion of Swatch Group's open letter regarding the recent Morgan Stanley watch report, industry transparency, and the impact of data inaccuracies on luxury watch brands. We analyze this letter and comment on the credibility of industry data, brand positioning, and recent market developments, providing our insights.Timestamps:00:00 Current Situation in the UAE02:15 Public Response and Leadership During Conflict04:34 Comparative Safety: UAE vs. Other Regions06:46 Government Response to Crisis09:54 Travel Challenges and Solutions12:26 Evacuation Efforts for Stranded Tourists15:39 Crisis Communication and Government Support16:51 Watch Talk: Personal Stories and Preferences26:00 The Swatch Group's Response to Criticism30:00 Analyzing Morgan Stanley's Research Methodology34:46 Discrepancies in Sales Data and Brand Performance39:55 The Need for Transparency in Watch Industry Data51:53 New Developments in the Watch Industry53:08 Exploring New Watch Designs58:38 The Value Proposition of Tutima Watches01:01:10 Norqain's New Releases and Pricing Concerns01:04:13 Innovative Features in Tag Heuer's  Aquaracer01:07:51 Breitling's Sponsorship of Aston Martin and Market PositioningGive us a follow, and feel free to reach out to us on Instagram: @lumeplottersOr… leave us an audio comment using the link below, and we may just play it in an upcoming episode: https://www.speakpipe.com/lumeplotters

Artificial intelligence is not only changing what we can do, but may be changing how we think. As AI systems increasingly participate in writing, reasoning, and decision-making, it becomes more urgent to ask what it means to retain human agency and ensure we're not losing our fundamental capabilities.My guests today, Helen and Dave Edwards, have been working seriously on this question.Helen and Dave Edwards are co-founders of the Artificiality Institute, a nonprofit research organization that helps people stay human in the age of AI. They explore how AI changes the way we think, who we become, and what it means to be human. Through story-based research, education, and community, they help people choose the relationship they want with machines, so they remain the authors of their own minds.Before founding the Artificiality Institute, they co-founded Intelligentsia.ai, an AI-focused research firm acquired by Atlantic Media. Helen previously led large-scale technology and transformation efforts in critical infrastructure, while Dave spent years shaping creative tools at Apple and investing in emerging technologies as a venture capitalist at CRV and an equity research analyst at Morgan Stanley and ThinkEquity.In this first part of our conversation, we discuss:Helen and Dave's early childhood experiences of beautyThe origin of the Artificiality Institute  How AI is already reshaping the way we reason, write, create, and make decisions What happens to human reasoning and decision-making when AI becomes part of our thinking process The difference between “drift” and intentional authorship when working with AI Cognitive sovereignty as the central challenge of the AI era How can people use AI deeply and skillfully The concept of symbolic plasticity and how AI can reshape the frameworks we use to understand the worldTo learn more about Helen and Dave's work, you can find them at:https://artificialityinstitute.org/ Books and resources mentioned:The Artificiality, AI Culture, and Why the Future Will Be Co-Evolution (by Helen Edwards)This season of the podcast is sponsored by Templeton Religion Trust.Support the show

Canada processes MAID applications same-day. The median wait for surgery is 28.6 weeks. This isn't broken — this is the system working as designed.In this episode:⚡ CANADA & MAID — A disabled man is pursuing medically assisted death to avoid homelessness. Not terminal. Not mentally ill. Just afraid of being on the street. We break down the same-day MAID protocol, 76,475 deaths since 2016, and what it tells you about Canadian governance.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why history, technicals and fundamentals suggest a clearer runway for U.S. stocks six months out, despite geopolitical concerns.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing the conflict in Iran and what it means for equities. It's Monday, March 9th at 11:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. While most believe the current equity market correction began in February, it's clear to me that it actually began last fall when liquidity began to tighten. In fact, back in September I warned that the Fed was not doing enough with the balance sheet – and financial conditions were likely to tighten and cause some stress in equities. Starting in October, that stress manifested as a sharp correction in the most speculative parts of the equity market and crypto currencies. The Fed responded by ending its balance sheet reduction earlier than expected and restarting asset purchases which led to strong equity performance in January. At this point, the correction is very well advanced in both time and price, with many stocks down 30 percent, or more. Meanwhile, dispersion has rarely been higher with the spread between winners and losers the highest we have seen in 20+ years. As usual, the markets got it right by anticipating many of the concerns that are now obvious to all. The questions for equity investors now are what will the world look like in six months and are prices cheap enough to start assuming a better future? The short answer is not yet, but get your shopping lists ready. In many ways, we find ourselves in a very similar position to last year. Recall that the major indices started to accelerate lower in Late February and early March. The concern at the time was centered around tariffs, but like today, equity markets had already been trading poorly for months on concerns that had nothing to do with tariffs. This time around, markets have been worried about AI labor disruption, private credit defaults and liquidity shortages long before the Iran conflict escalated. Corrections typically don't end until the best stocks and highest quality indices get hit and that usually takes a bigger shock, like Liberation Day or war. That process has begun with the S&P 500 having its worst week since October. The other thing to consider is that market levels tend to be tied to where they were a year ago. This year-over-year comparison is very important when thinking about support. Given the sharp decline last year, it tells me we have another month during which the equity markets are likely to struggle. Based on this simple observation and other technical indicators, I think the S&P 500 could trade toward 6300 by early April before our favorable fundamental outlook can take hold again. Does this mean we shouldn't worry about the conflict in Iran taking oil prices sustainably above $100? No, but since no one seems to be able to predict the outcome of military conflicts or oil prices, I am not going to try either. Instead, I am going to assume that in six months, things have likely settled down after this initial surge, much like we saw after Russia invaded Ukraine. Importantly, the spike in oil prices is the result of a logistical logjam in the Straits of Hormuz rather than a shortage of supply. That logjam is a real constraint, but necessity is the mother of ingenuity and will likely be solved. Another reason to be optimistic six months out is the broadening in earnings growth, a trend that remains intact and a key call in our 2026 outlook. Secondarily, the US is much more resilient than Asia and Europe to an oil shock given its energy independence. This should attract investor flows back to the US. And finally, tax incentives for capital spending and tax cuts for individuals in the [One] Big Beautiful Bill should provide a positive offset to the higher oil prices in the short term. On the negative side, the flight to quality and safety could lead to more US dollar strength which is a headwind to global liquidity. Bottom line, oil and US dollar strength is likely to persist until the conflict simmers down. While much of the damage has likely been done to the most vulnerable parts of the equity market, the index remains vulnerable to another 5-7 percent downside in my opinion while crowded stocks could see double digit declines before a final low appears next month. Remember market lows happen faster than tops so be ready to add risk in anticipation of the bull market resuming later this year. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

In this week's MBA Admissions podcast we began by discussing the current state of the MBA admissions season. We are now getting close to the end of the interview invite season for Round 2 as top MBA programs begin to release their final decisions. This upcoming week, UNC / Kenan Flagler, Duke / Fuqua, Michigan / Ross, Notre Dame / Mendoza, SMU / Cox and Imperial Business School are releasing their Round 2 decisions. A few MBA programs are also beginning their next admissions rounds, including Georgia / Terry, IESE and Maryland / Smith. Graham highlighted upcoming MBA webinar events. On March 19, we are hosting a series of panel discussions focused on international students who are targeting the top MBA programs in the United States. On May 11, Clear Admit is hosting our in-person MBA Fair in Atlanta. Signups for these events are here: https://www.clearadmit.com/events Graham then highlighted several MBA admissions tips, focusing on Welcome Weekend events, the importance of pre-MBA coursework for MBA applicants, and two that focus on deferred admissions at UPenn / Wharton and Columbia. Finally, Graham addressed the new season of Real Humans Alumni. This week focuses on four alumni from Rice / Jones at Bain, NYU / Stern at BCG, Harvard at Amazon and CMU / Tepper at Morgan Stanley. For this week, for the candidate profile review portion of the show, Alex selected two ApplyWire entries and one DecisionWire entry: This week's first MBA admissions candidate is from India and is looking to pivot from accounting to finance. They are applying next season and still need to take the GMAT exam. This week's second MBA applicant has a 316 GRE score and is planning to retake the GRE before applying next season. We believe they will have a really strong profile if they can raise their GRE score. This week's final MBA candidate is deciding between Fuqua, Goizueta and Owen. This episode was recorded in Paris, France and Cornwall, England. It was produced and engineered by the fabulous Dennis Crowley in Philadelphia, USA. Thanks to all of you who've been joining us and please remember to rate and review this show wherever you listen!

Live from Morgan Stanley's TMT conference, our panel break down where AI is already delivering real returns—and where rapid advances are raising new risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.Today we've got a special episode on AI adoption. And this is a first in a two-part conversation live from our Technology, Media and Telecom conference.It's Thursday, March 5th at 11am in San Francisco.We're really excited to be here with all of you taping live. And we've got on stage with me. Stephen Byrd, he's our Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research; Josh Baer, Software Analyst; and Lindsay Tyler, TMT Credit Research Analyst.So, Stephen, I want to start with you, pretty broad, pretty high level. We recently published our fifth AI Mapping Survey that identifies how different companies are exposed to the broad AI theme. Can you just share with us some insights from that piece and how stocks are performing with this AI exposure?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, we've been doing this survey now, thanks to you, Michelle, and your excellent work, for quite a while. And every six months it is pretty telling to see the progression.I would say a few things that got my attention from our most recent mapping was the number of companies that are quantifying the adoption benefits continues to go up quite a bit. And to me that feels like that's going to be table stakes very soon as in every industry you see two or three companies that are really laying out quite specifically what they expect to be able to do with AI and lay out the math. I think that really is going to pull all the other companies to follow suit. So, we're seeing that in a big way.We do see adopters, with real tangible benefits performing well. But a new thing that we're seeing now, of course, in the market is concerns that in some cases adoption can lead to dramatic deflation, disruption, et cetera. That's coming up as well. So, we're seeing greater concerns around disruption as well.But broadly, I'd say a proliferation of adoption, that that universe of companies continues to grow, increases in quantification of the benefits. So, that is good. What's really surprised me though, is the narrative among investors has so quickly moved from those benefits which we've talked about into flipping that to toggle all negative, which I know some of our analysts have to deal with every day. The mapping work suggests significant benefits. But the market is fast forwarding to very powerful AI that is very disruptive in deflation. And that's been a surprise to me.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Josh, I want to bring software into this. Your team has been arguing that AI is actually good for software. And it's really something that you need that application layer to then enable other companies to adopt AI. Can you tell us a little bit about how much GenAI could add to the broader enterprise software market? And how are you thinking about monetization these days?Josh Baer: Of course. I think the best starting place is a reminder that AI is software, and so we see software as a TAM expander. And in many ways, even though this is extremely exciting innovation, it's following past innovation trends where first you see value accrue and market cap accrue to semiconductors, and then hardware and devices, and then eventually software and services. And we do think that that absolutely will occur just given [$]3 trillion in infrastructure investment into data centers and GPUs.There's got to be an application layer that brings all of these productivity and efficiency gains to enterprises and advanced capabilities to consumers as well. And so we see AI more as an evolution for software than a revolution. An evolution of capabilities and expansion of capabilities. LLMs and diffusion engines absolutely unlocked all of these new features of what software can do. But incumbents will play a key role in this unlock.And our CIO surveys really support that. Quarterly we ask chief information officers about their spending intentions, and these application vendors who we cover in the public markets are increasingly selected as vendors that companies will go to, to help deploy and apply AI and LLM technologies.So, to answer your question, we estimate GenAI could unlock [$]400 billion in incremental TAM for software; for enterprise software by 2028. And this is based on looking at the type of work able to be automated, the labor costs associated with that work, the scope of automation, and then thinking about how much of that value is captured typically by software vendors.Michelle Weaver: And you have a bit of a different lens on AI adoption. So, what are some of the ways you're hearing software customers using these AI tools and anything interesting that popped up at the conference?Josh Baer: To echo what Stephen laid out, I mean, all of our software companies are using AI internally, both to drive efficiencies, but also to move faster. So thinking about product. Innovation, you know, the incumbents are able to use all of the same coding tools and, you know, …Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm.Josh Bear: … products geared to developers to move faster and more efficiently on R&D. So, they're doing more. From a sales and marketing perspective, a G&A perspective, every area of OpEx, our software companies are in a great position to deploy the AI tools internally.I think more important[ly], speaking to this TAM and expanded opportunity, is our companies have skews that they're monetizing. It might be a separate suite that incorporates advanced AI functionality. It might be a standalone offering, or it might be embedded into the core platform because the essence of software is AI and it, you know, leading to better retention rates and acceleration from here.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. And Stephen, going back to you on the state of play for AI, we had the AI labs here and we heard a lot about the developments and what's to come. So, what's your view on the trajectory for LLM advancements and what are some of the key signposts or catalysts you're watching here?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, this is for me, maybe the most important takeaway of the conference – is this continued non-linear improvement of LLMs, which we've been writing about for quite some time. And just to give you an example, we think many of the labs have achieved a step change up in terms of the compute that they have, in some cases 10 x the amount of compute to train their LLMs. And that [if] the scaling laws hold – and we see every sign that they will – a 10x increase in compute used to train the models results in about a doubling of the model capabilities.Now just let that sink in for a moment. Let's just think about that. A doubling from here in a relatively short period of time is difficult to predict. It's obviously very significant and I think several of the LLM execs at our event sounded to me extremely bullish on what that will be. A lot of that I think will be evident in greater agentic capabilities.But also, I'd say greater creativity. It was about three weeks ago, three of the best physics minds in the world worked with an LLM to achieve a true breakthrough in physics – solving a problem that had never been solved before. A couple of days ago, a math team did the same thing. And so, what we're seeing is sort of these breakthrough capabilities in creativity. This morning I thought Sam speaking to, you know, incredible increases in what these models can do – which also brings risk. You know, I think it was interesting he spoke to, you know, the risk of misalignment, the risk of what these models are doing.But for me, that's the single biggest thing that I'm thinking about, and that's going to be evident in the next several months.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm.Stephen Byrd: So, you know, on the positive side, it leads to greater benefits from AI adoption. And to Josh's point that, you know – more and more the economy can be addressed by AI, I do get concerned about the risk that that kind of step change will create greater concerns about disruption and deflation.That causes me to think a lot about that dynamic. Interestingly, we think the Chinese labs will not be able to keep pace just for one reason, which is compute. We think the Chinese labs have everything else they need. They have the talent, the infrastructure. They certainly have the energy, power. But they don't have the chips.If what we laid out with the American models turns out to be true, I could see a chain reaction where the Chinese government pushes the Trump administration for full transfer of the best technology to China. And China could use their rare earth trade position to ensure that. So, that's sort of the chain reaction I've been thinking about.Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. So, let's think about then bottlenecks in the U.S. Power is still one of the main bottlenecks. We had several of the solutions providers here at the conference. So, what are you thinking in terms of the size of the power bottleneck in the U.S. and how are we going to fix that?Stephen Byrd: Yeah, absolutely. I am bullish on the companies that can de-bottleneck power, not just in the U.S., a few other places. Let's go through the math in terms of the problem we face and then the solution.So, we have this very cool – it is cool if you're a nerd – power model that starts in the chip level up, from our semiconductor teams. And from that, we build a global power demand model for data centers. We then apply that to the U.S.Through 2028 we need about 74 gigawatts of data centers, both AI and non-AI to be built in the United States. I don't think we'll be able to achieve that for lots of reasons. But starting from that 74, we have sort of 10 gigs that have been recently built or are under construction. We have 15 gigs of incremental grid access, but after those two, we have to go to unconventional solutions, meaning typically off-grid solutions, over 40 gigawatts of unconventional solutions.So that will be repurposing Bitcoin sites, which could be sort of 10 to 15 gigawatts. That'll be big. Renewable energy, fuel cells will be part of the solution. Gas turbines will be a big part of the solution. Co-locating at a few nuclear plants. I'm less bullish than I used to be on that. But when we net all that out, we think the U.S. is likely to be 10 to 20 percent short of the data center capacity that will need to be in.It's not just a power grid access issue, though, that's a big one. Labor is now showing up as a huge issue. Many of the companies I speak to trying to develop data centers struggle with availability of labor. Electricians being one very tangible example. In the U.S. we need hundreds of thousands of additional electricians.So, for any of your children, like mine, thinking about careers, you know, you'd be surprised [at] the amount of money that people are making in the infrastructure business that does feel like it's a labor shift that's going to have to happen, but it's going to take years. So, in that context, we had a number of the Bitcoin companies at our event here. And the economics of turning a Bitcoin site into hosting a data center are extremely attractive. I mean, extremely attractive.To give you a sense of that. Before this opportunity presented itself to these Bitcoin players, those stocks tended to trade at an enterprise value per watt of about $1 to $2 a watt. Then we started to see these deals in which the Bitcoin players build a data center and lease them to hyperscalers. Those deals – depends a lot on the deal but – have created between $10 and $18 a watt of value. Let me repeat that. 10 to 18 – relative to where these stocks were at 1 to 2.Now many of these stocks have rerated, but not all of them. And there's still quite a bit of upside. And what we've noticed is the economics that the hyperscalers are paying are trending up and up and up. Because of this power shortage that we're dealing with. So, a lot of exciting opportunities are still in the power space.Michelle Weaver: Great. Well, I think that's a good place to wrap this first part of our conversation around AI adoption and the state of play. We'll be back again tomorrow with Part Two, looking at financing and risks.To our panelists, thank you for talking with me. And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In the second of our two-part panel discussion from Morgan Stanley's TMT conference, our analysts break down the complexity of financing AI's infrastructure and the technological disruption happening across industries.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome back to Thoughts on the Market, and welcome to part two of our conversation live from the Technology, Media and Telecom conference. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Today we're continuing our conversation with Stephen Byrd, Josh Baer and Lindsay Tyler. This time looking at financing AI and some of the risks to the story. It's Friday, March 6th at 11am in San Francisco. So yesterday we spoke about AI adoption. And while there's a lot of excitement on this theme, there've also been some concerns bubbling up. Lindsay, I want to start with you around financing. That's another critical component of the AI build out. What's your latest on the magnitude of the data center financing gap, and what role [are] credit markets playing here? Lindsay Tyler: Yeah, in partnership with Thematic Research, Stephen and team, and colleagues across fixed income research last summer, we did put out a note, thinking about the data center financing gap, right? So, Stephen and team modeled a $3 trillion global data center CapEx need over a four-year timeframe. So, in partnership with fixed income across asset classes, we thought: okay, how will that really be funded? And we came to the conclusion that the hyperscalers, the high quality hyperscalers, generate a good amount of cash flow, right? So, there's cash from ops that can fund approximately half of that. But then we think that fixed income markets are critical to fund the rest of the funding gap. And really private credit is the leader in that and then aided by corporate credit and also securitized credit. What we've seen since is that yes, private credit has served a role. There is this difference between private credit 1.0, which is more of that middle market direct lending. And then private credit 2.0, which is more ABF – Asset Based Finance or Asset Backed Finance. And what we see there is an interest in leases of hyperscaler tenants, right? We've also seen in the market over the past nine months or so, investment grade bond issuance by hyperscalers. Obviously, a use of cash flow by hyperscalers. We've seen the construction loans with banks and also private credit per reports. We've also seen high yield bond issuance, which is kind of a new trend for construction financing. We've seen ABS and CMBS as well. And then something new that's emerging in focus for investors is more of a chip-backed or compute contract backed financings, like more creative solutions. We're really in early innings of the spend right now. And so, there is this shift. As we start to work through the construction early phases, the next focus is: okay, but what about the chips? And so, I think a big focus is that, you know, chips are more than 50 percent of the spend for if you're looking at a gigawatt site. And it depends what type of chips and kind of what generation. But that's the next leg of this too. So, it's kind of a focus, you know, for 2026. Michelle Weaver: And how do you view balance sheet leverage and financing when you think about hyperscaler debt raising magnitude and timelines? Lindsay Tyler: So just to bring it down to more of a basic level, if you need compute, you really might need two things, right? A powered shell and then the chips. And so, if you're looking for that compute, you could kind of go in three basic ways. You could look to build the shell and kind of build and buy the whole thing. You could lease the shell, from, you know, a developer, maybe a Bitcoin miner too – that is converted to HBC. And then you kind of buy the chips and you put them in yourselves. Or you could lease all the compute; quote unquote lease, it's more of a contract. In terms of the funding, if you're thinking about the cash flows of some of the big companies – think of that as primarily being put towards chip spend. If you're thinking about the construction that's kind of split between cash CapEx but also leases. And so, what we've seen is that there is more than [$]600 billion of un-commenced lease obligations that will commence over the next two to five years, across the big four or five players. And then my equity counterparts estimate around [$]700 billion of cash CapEx that needs this year for some of those players as well. So, these are big numbers. But that's kind of how, at a basic level, they're approaching some of the financing. It's a split approach. Michelle Weaver: And what have you learned around financing the past few days at the conference? Anything incremental to share there? Lindsay Tyler: Sure. Yeah. I think I found confirmation of some key themes here at the conference. The first being that numerous funding buckets are available. That was a big focus of our note last year is that you can kind of look at asset level financing. You can look at public bonds, you can look at some equity. There are these different funding buckets available.The second is that tenant quality matters for construction financing. I think I've seen this more in the markets than maybe at this conference over the past two to three weeks. But that has been a focus of pricing for the deals, but also market depth for the deals. A third confirmation of a key theme was around the neo clouds and also the GPU as a service business models. Thinking about those creative financings, right. Are they thinking about from their compute counterparties? Would they like upfront payments? Might they look to move financing off [the] balance sheet, if they have a very high-quality investment grade rated counterparty? So, there is some of this evolution around those solutions. And then a fourth key theme is just around the credit support. And Stephen has and I have talked about this around some of the Bitcoin miners – is that, you know, there can be these higher quality investment grade players that might look to lend their credit support. Maybe a lease backstop to other players in the ecosystem in order to get a better pricing on construction financing. And we are seeing some press pickup around how that might play out in chip financing down the road too. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. AI driven risk and potential disruption has been a big feature of the price action we've seen year-to-date in this theme. Stephen, what are some asset classes or businesses you see as resistant to some of this disruption? Stephen Byrd: We spend a lot of time thinking about, sort of, asset classes that are resistant to deflation and disruption. And what's interesting is there's actually a handful of economists in the world that are doing remarkable work on this concept. That they would call it the economics of transformative AI. There are three Americans, two Canadians, two Brits, a number of others who are doing really, really interesting work. And essentially what they're looking at is what do economies look like? As we see very powerful AI enter many industries – cause price reductions, deflation… What does that do? They have a lot of interesting takeaways, but one is this idea that the relative value of assets that cannot be deflated by AI goes up. Very simple idea. But think of it this way, I mean, there's only, you know, one principle resort on Kauai. You know, there's a limited amount of metals. And so, what we go through is this list that's gotten a lot of investor attention of resistant asset classes or more of the resistant asset classes that can go up in value. So, there are obvious ones like land, though you have to be a little careful with real estate in the sense that like, office real estate probably wouldn't be where you would go. Nor would you potentially go sort of towards middle income, lower income housing. But more, you know, think of industrial REITs, higher-end real estate. But there are a lot of other categories that are interesting to me. All kinds of infrastructure should be quite resistant, all kinds of critical materials. Metals should do extremely well in this. But then when you go beyond that, it's actually kind of interesting that there; arguably there's a longer list than those classic sort of land and metals examples.Examples here would be compute… Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Stephen Byrd: I thought Jensen put it, well, you know, if there's a limited amount of infrastructure available, you want to put the best compute. And ultimately, in some ways, intelligence becomes the new coin of the realm in the world, right? So, I would want to own the purveyors of intelligence. It could include high-end luxury. It could include unique human experiences. So, I don't know how many of y'all have children who are sort of college age. But my children are college age, and they absolutely hate what they would call AI slop.They want legit human content, and they seek it out. And they absolutely hate it when they see bad copies of human content. And so, I think there is a place in many parts of the economy for unique human experiences, unique human content, and it's interesting to kind of seek out where that might be in the economy. So those would be some examples of resistant assets. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Josh, software's been at really the center of this AI disruption debate. How would you compare the current pullback in software multiples to prior periods of peak uncertainty? And do you think any of these concerns are valid? Or how are you thinking about that? Josh Baer: Great question. I mean, software multiples on an EV to sales basis are down 30 – 35 percent just from the fall, I will say. And that's overall in the group. A lot of stocks, multiple handfuls, are down 60-70 percent over the last year. And what's being priced in is really peak uncertainty, a lot of fear. And these multiples, now four times sales – takes us all the way back about 10 years to the shift to cloud. And this time in many ways reminds us of that period of peak fear. In this case, what's being priced in is terminal value risk. We talked about this TAM yesterday. But you know, who is going to win that share? How is it divided from a competitive perspective across these model providers? The LLMs with new entrants. Of course, the incumbents. And this other idea of in-housing. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Josh Baer: So, there's competitive risk, there's business model risk. Are companies going to need to change their pricing models from seat-based to consumption or hybrid. And then last margin risk. Just thinking about the higher input costs and higher capital intensity. And so, you know, all of those fears are being priced in right now. Michelle Weaver: And we, of course though, had a bunch of these companies live with us at the conference. How are they responding to some of these risks? How are they addressing these investor concerns? Josh Baer: Most of the companies here from our coverage are the incumbent software vendors. And I think that the leadership teams did a really nice job coming out and defending their competitive moats and really articulating the story of why they are in a great position to capitalize on the opportunity. And the reasons can vary across different companies. But some of the commonalities are around enterprise grade, trust, security, governance, acceptance from IT organizations.The idea of vibe coding all apps in an organization get squashed when you actually talk to companies and chief information officers. For some companies there's proprietary data moats, network effects. All of that's on top of existing customer relationships. And so, you know, that was the message from the companies that we had. That we're the incumbents. We get to use all of the same innovative AI technology in the same way that all these different competitive buckets do. But we have, you know, that differentiation in that moat. And so, we're in a good place. Michelle Weaver: I want to wrap on a positive note. Stephen, what did you hear at the conference that you're most excited about? Stephen Byrd: I'd say the life sciences. A few investors pointed out that perhaps AI has a PR problem these days. And I do think showing a significant benefit to humanity in terms of improved health outcomes, whether that's just better diagnosis, you know. Away from this event, but I was in India the week before and, you know, AI can have a powerful benefit to the people who suffer the most in terms of providing very powerful medical tools in a distributed manner. So, I'm a big fan there.But you know, in many ways, curing the most challenging diseases plaguing humanity. The kind of problems involved in providing those and developing those cures are perfect for AI. So that, for me – stepping way back – that is by far the most exciting thing. Michelle Weaver: Josh, same to you. What are you most excited about? Josh Baer: From my perspective, it's potentially the turning point for software. The ability to showcase that we are at this inflection point and acceleration. To actually see that it takes time for our software companies to develop new AI technologies. Put that into products that have been tested and proven and go through the enterprise adoption cycle. And that we're at the cusp of more adoption – that's what our survey work says. And to see that inflection, I think can help to rerate this sector. Michelle Weaver: Lindsay, same question for you… Lindsay Tyler: Maybe I'll tie it to markets. I've already had a lot of more conversations with equity investors over the past, how many months? There's a big fixed income focus right now, which is a great, you know, spot and really interesting opportunity in my seat. And there's a lot of interesting structures coming to be right now in the credit space. So, I think it's an exciting time. Michelle Weaver: Lindsay, Stephen, Josh, thank you very much for joining to recap the event and let us know what you learned at the conference. To our audience, thank you for listening here live. And to our audience tuning in, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

John Pollock and Brandon Thurston go through the latest news on the WWE shareholder lawsuit and allegations of communications being deleted, plus Mark Shapiro speaks at the Morgan Stanley conference.00:00:00 Start00:03:29 WWE plaintiffs seek sanctions over deleted Signal messages00:20:23 Judge orders parties in WWE shareholder lawsuit to remove redactions00:28:17 Janel Grant and her counsel speak on behalf of bill to limit usage of NDAs00:34:43 Dr. Carlon Colker loses appeal of order to produce documents00:37:07 Mark Shapiro at Morgan Stanley Tech Conference00:52:20 Paramount+ to combine with HBO Max, UFC on TNT?01:02:55 WWE going to the Middle East01:05:30 TV & streaming numbersMusic courtesy: “Panic Beat” by Ben TramerPOST WrestlingSubscribe: https://postwrestling.com/subscribePatreon: http://postwrestlingcafe.comForum: https://forum.postwrestling.comDiscord: https://discord.com/invite/Q795HhRTwitter/Facebook/Instagram/YouTube: @POSTwrestlingBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/postwrestling.comWrestlenomicsSubscribe: https://wrestlenomics.com/podcast/Patreon: https://patreon.com/wrestlenomicsSubstack: https://wrestlenomics.substack.com/Twitter/Facebook/Instagram/YouTube: @WrestlenomicsBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/wrestlenomics.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Matt and Nic are back for another week of news and deals. In this episode:  What Dario Amodei and SBF have in common Trump wades in to the market structure debate and asks the banks to come to the table Why stablecoins are not like banks Kraken Financial gets a skinny Fed master account Visa and Bridge are rolling out stablecoin-linked cards The FBI arrests a suspect accused of stealing $46m in BTC from the US marshalls Morgan Stanley is coming out with their own Bitcoin ETF The Aave token governance controversy rumbles on Kalshi's traders are upset about their "death market" policy Content mentioned in this episode: The CIV Youtube Channel Alpen Labs, Size Matters: Architecting BTC Credit Markets

  Brady and John open with a light exchange about audio issues, spring weather, and using AI to fill in for John's upcoming absence The hosts reflect on how addictive and productive AI tools have become, comparing the experience to having an always-on intelligent collaborator Bitcoin's recent strength stands out, with the hosts noting that it outperformed gold during a real geopolitical scare while ETF inflows remained strong They discuss whether Bitcoin has already put in a price bottom near $60K, while questioning whether the market now faces a “bear market in time” rather than a deeper price collapse Sentiment indicators like Fear & Greed are highlighted as signs that panic may have peaked, even if confidence takes time to rebuild The episode covers macro tailwinds for Bitcoin, including improving manufacturing PMI, weakening jobs data, persistent inflation pressure, and the structural impossibility of reining in US government spending Strategy's continued Bitcoin accumulation is framed as a major long-term signal, while the discussion around Stretch focuses on how Bitcoin-linked financial products are competing with private credit for investor capital The BlackRock private credit withdrawal limits story is used to contrast the opacity and illiquidity of traditional finance with Bitcoin-native alternatives Brady and John review major financial-system developments including Kraken's Fed access, Morgan Stanley launching its own Bitcoin ETF, Coinbase custody scrutiny, and Elon Musk's X Money rollout They close by arguing that Bitcoin is becoming more deeply embedded in the financial system, even if many of the latest policy wins are benefiting crypto and stablecoins more directly than Bitcoin itself   ► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/vault?utm_campaign=vault&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app?utm_campaign=app&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour! ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/welcome?utm_campaign=welcome_to_bitcoin&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Connect with Swan Bitcoin: ✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan ✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin ✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin ✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin ✔ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SwanBitcoin/ ✔ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realswanbitcoin

The K-shaped consumer is redefining the outlook for the U.S. economy. While overall spending remains resilient, growth is increasingly concentrated among higher-income households, creating widening gaps across income levels. As policy shifts, AI adoption, and healthcare innovations reshape behavior, the consumer landscape is becoming more uneven.In this episode of The Bid, host Oscar Pulido is joined by Lisa Yang, Portfolio Manager and Co-Head of the Consumer Industry Group within BlackRock Fundamental Equities, to assess the state of the U.S. consumer heading into 2026. From wage growth and labor market dynamics to fiscal policy, tariffs, and immigration, Lisa explains how macro forces are influencing spending patterns — and why resilience is strongest at the high end. The conversation also explores structural shifts shaping stock market trends, including the rise of value-focused retailers, the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on food and apparel demand, and how AI-driven “agentic commerce” could transform retail media and brand discovery. As capital markets digest these changes, understanding the nuances of consumer behavior is critical for investors.Key insights from this episode:02:11 Introducing The "Two Speed Consumer"04:26 Yellow Flags Ahead - Why the U.S. Consumer Remains Resilient But increasingly K-shaped05:46 Policy Shocks 2026 - How fiscal policy and tariffs could widen income-driven spending gaps08:45 Why Value Retailers and Discounters are Outperforming12:01 GLP One Ripple Effects - How GLP-1 Drugs Are Reshaping Grocery, Apparel, and Beauty categories14:40 How AI Will Change Shopping Trends - What agentic commerce means for retailers, brands, and advertising models17:43 Other Trends Watchlist - Why Health and Wellness Remains A Durable Long-term Consumer Trend20:02 ConclusionsK-shaped economy, U.S. consumer spending, AI in retail, GLP-1 drugs, capital markets, stock market trends, consumer investing, megaforcesSources: “Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services” February 2026, United States Census Bureau; US Bureau of Economic Analysis (PCE data); FRED 2026, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wage Growth Data, January 2026, Federal Reserve of Atlanta; Tax refunds per Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler estimates; “US food outlook 2026”, Bernstein; “GLP-1 Boom Accelerates Nationwide Shift in Size Curves, Putting $5 Billion in U.S. Apparel Retail Inventory at Risk, According to New Impact Analytics Study”, Global Newswire, September 2025This content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener. Reference to any company or investment strategy mentioned is for illustrative purposes only and not investment advice. In the UK and non-European Economic Area countries, this is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. In the European Economic Area, this is authorized and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. For full disclosures, visit blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosures.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Frank and Rob dive into: • Rob's path from UBS and Morgan Stanley to launching NewEdge Wealth. • How NewEdge Wealth and NewEdge Advisors differ and advisor profiles that may fit each platform. • How multi-custody and open architecture models can offer flexibility. • Perspectives of some advisors that have experienced business growth after joining the firm. •  The role of private equity and its innovation in wealth management. • How advisors may use niche marketing strategies and referral initiatives to identify opportunities. Whether you're exploring alternatives to a wirehouse or staying informed on industry developments, this conversation offers a practical look at the choices and trade-offs within today's independent landscape. Want to connect? • Reach out to Frank directly at frank@eliteconsultingpartners.com or send him a DM on LinkedIn. • You can also connect with Rob by emailing RSechan@NewEdgeCG.com or visiting his LinkedIn page. Chapters:   0:00 Introduction 1:02 From Wirehouse Advisor to Building a New Platform 6:30 What Makes Elite Financial Advisors Different 8:08 NewEdge Wealth vs NewEdge Advisors Explained 18:08 Why Multi-Custody & Open Architecture Matter 27:00 How Top Advisors Accelerate Growth After Going Independent 36:09 Private Equity's Role in the Future of Wealth Management 40:46 Why Advisors Should Explore the Independent Model Learn more about Elite and our resources: Elite Consulting Partners | Financial Advisor Transitions https://eliteconsultingpartners.com Elite Marketing Concepts | Marketing Services for Financial Advisors https://elitemarketingconcepts.com Elite Advisor Successions | Advisor Mergers & Acquisitions https://eliteadvisorsuccessions.com JEDI Database Solutions | Technology Solutions for Advisors https://jedidatabasesolutions.com Listen to more Advisor Talk episodes: https://eliteconsultingpartners.com/podcasts/ “Assets “serviced by” the firm includes (i) client assets for which we provide investment advisory services, (ii) client assets for which we provide brokerage services through our affiliate, NewEdge Securities, LLC and (iii) client assets held at affiliated and unaffiliated broker dealers for which we provide supervisory oversight, support services and/or wealth strategy services. Opinions expressed are as of October 7, 2025, and may change without notice. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation regarding any security, strategy, or business relationship. Past performance does not guarantee future results. References to advisor experiences (including business growth, win rates, or referrals) reflect individual circumstances and are not representative of all advisors or outcomes. Results vary and are not guaranteed. Any testimonials or endorsements presented reflect the speaker's opinion at the time made. If compensation or other benefits were provided in connection with a testimonial or endorsement, that fact will be disclosed. Such statements should not be construed as indicative of future performance or experience for all clients or advisors. Third-party firms, custodians, platforms, or services referenced are independent of NewEdge. Their inclusion does not constitute a recommendation, endorsement, or approval. Where third-party ratings or rankings are cited, the source and date apply; methodologies may differ, and ratings may not predict future performance. NewEdge may have business arrangements with certain third parties that present potential conflicts of interest; details available upon request. NewEdge may receive or provide referrals to or from third parties, including custodians, which may involve compensation or other benefits. Additional information about referral relationships and compensation is available upon request, A copy of the NewEdge's current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request or at www.newedgecg.com. All company names, logos, and trademarks are property of their respective owners and are used for identification only. References to media appearances do not constitute an endorsement.

Carl Quintanilla, David Faber, and Sara Eisen broke down recent labor data - and what it could portend for a big Jobs report tomorrow - before Citi's U.S. Equity Strategist weighed in, and the team got breaking news on Iran. Software stocks staging a big rebound in the early trade as investors work through AI disruption fears - and the CEO of Salesforce pushes back on the 'SAASpocalypse'... Why he says the technology is a good thing for his company, and workers this hour - along with new comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, live at Morgan Stanley's TMT conference.  Plus: Paramount Skydance Chairman & CEO David Ellison joined the team live from Los Angeles - in his first interview since prevailing in the battle for Warner Brothers Discovery... Hear his take on key hurdles ahead, why they paid top dollar to beat Netflix, and more.  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore assess the potential market outcomes of the Middle East conflict, weighing its possible duration and economic impact.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Deputy Global Head of Research. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, the market reaction, and what investors should be watching for next. It's Wednesday, March 4th at 7:30am in San Francisco. Ariana Salvatore: And 10:30am in New York. Michael Zezas: So, Ariana, I'm in San Francisco at Morgan Stanley's TMT Conference, but obviously events in the Middle East have captured everyone's attention. There's uncertainty around the conflict and really important questions about how it affects all of us. And of course, markets have to discount all sorts of future uncertainty about very specific impacts – to financial asset prices, to commodity prices – and really look at it through that narrow lens.And so, Ariana, the administration has suggested that this conflict and this campaign could last a few weeks. But also it said it could continue as long as it takes. So, what are the clearest signals investors should watch for to gauge duration? Ariana Salvatore: For now, we're focused on three main indicators. First, I would say, and most important, is clarity around the objectives. The president and others in the administration have referenced things like eliminating Iran's missile arsenal, its navy and limiting proxy activity. Those goals are broader than the earlier focus on just the nuclear programs. Each objective, of course, implies a different timeline. A narrower objective likely means a shorter engagement. Broader ambitions, conversely, would extend it. So that's the first thing. Second, obviously extremely important is traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. We'd viewed a full closure as unlikely, given the economic consequences for Iran itself. But tanker flows have at least temporarily fallen close to zero, and that's significant because production across the region has not been impaired. This is not about oil fields going offline. It's about whether or not oil can actually move. If shipping lanes normalize within weeks, markets can recalibrate. However, if flows remain materially curtailed beyond five weeks, the risks rise meaningfully. Third, the frequency of strikes and proxy activity. Sustained or escalating engagement would suggest a longer conflict. Signs of diplomacy, on the other hand, might indicate de-escalation. Michael Zezas: Right. So, let's build on that and talk about oil. And our colleague, Martijn Rats has really laid this out with a lot of different scenarios. But what we're seeing right now is that when it comes to oil, this is really a shock to the transport of it, not necessarily a shock to its production. So, oil supply exists. The question is really – can it be delivered or not? So, if tanker flows normalize and the geopolitical risk premium fades, what Martijn is saying is that global oil prices could move back towards $60 to $65 a barrel. If the logistical disruption lasts four to five weeks, then prices maybe trade in the $75 to $80 range. And if disruption extends beyond five weeks and flows are materially constrained, then you could see a situation where oil prices have to rise towards $120 or $130 a barrel. And at that level, demand destruction is what becomes the balancing mechanism in setting price for oil. So, one signal to watch is longer dated oil prices. Early month contracts can spike during geopolitical stress, but a sustained move materially above $80 to $85 [per] barrel would likely require longer dated prices to move higher as well. And that might signal that markets believe the disruption is persistent and not temporary. Ariana, what about natural gas here? How does gas situation fit into the energy story? Ariana Salvatore: As of this recording, Qatar has halted liquified natural gas production putting roughly 20 percent of global supply at risk. Prices have, as you might expect, risen sharply, which likely reflects expectations of a relatively short disruption. If exports were to resume quickly, prices could retrace. But, of course, if the outage lasts longer, prices could move meaningfully higher. Again, duration of the conflict is really critical here. Michael Zezas: So, let's bring this back to the U.S. Ariana, how does this conflict feed into the domestic, political and economic backdrop? Ariana Salvatore: When we're thinking about the midterm elections later this year, the way we see it, the clearest transmission channel is gasoline prices. Polling shows a majority of Americans oppose military action related to Iran, but voters typically prioritize domestic issues: things like inflation, cost of living, affordability over foreign policy. However, there's a very clear caveat here. If oil prices stay elevated, gasoline prices rise, and that's where this becomes politically more salient. Michael Zezas: Right, and so our economists and our chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen has been all over this. And the way he assesses it is if oil prices remain about 10 percent higher than where they were before the conflict for several months, headline inflation would likely rise by 0.3 percent before dissipating. Historically, oil price shocks primarily affect headline inflation rather than underlying inflation. That's an important distinction that they point out. So maybe that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, even if policymakers ultimately look through the move. But if oil prices rise enough to weaken economic activity, particularly in the labor market or consumer spending, then our economists say the Fed could pivot toward easing despite elevated inflation. Ariana Salvatore: So, given that backdrop, what's the simple takeaway for investors in stocks or bonds? Michael Zezas: Right. So, I think we have to think about this in terms of duration of conflict and economic impact. So, if tanker flows normalize within a few weeks and oil prices move back towards that $60 to $65 range, then our economists are saying economic damage would be limited. And historically geopolitical events alone have not led to sustained volatility for U.S. equities. So, in that environment, our cross-asset team points out that stocks would likely remain supported. If instead, oil prices remain elevated long enough to push inflation higher and weigh on growth, the picture would change. A sharp and persistent rise in oil prices – that can pose a risk to the duration of the business cycle, and in that scenario, we'd expect stocks to struggle. Importantly, bonds may not provide the same diversification benefit if inflation remains sticky as a consequence of all of this. We could see stock and bond prices move in the same direction. That could challenge traditional balanced portfolios. Ariana Salvatore: And what are we seeing specifically in U.S. Treasury markets? Michael Zezas: So, as Matt Hornbach and our global macro strategy team have pointed out here, you've got two competing forces in the U.S. Treasury market. There's been some demand for safety, but investors are also focused on the risk that higher oil prices would lift inflation. So far, inflation concerns have taken precedence over growth concerns. How long that balance holds – that might depend on incoming data, especially labor market data. If you get weaker labor market data suggesting that growth could weaken, then you could see treasuries rally more meaningfully and yields come down. If you don't see that and inflation concerns dominate, then maybe you're not going to see yields come down as much. And bonds rally as much. Ariana Salvatore: So, stepping back, it seems like the key variables remain tanker traffic, longer dated oil prices and duration of the conflict itself. Michael Zezas: I think that's right. Ariana, thanks for speaking with me. Ariana Salvatore: Always a pleasure, Mike. Michael Zezas: And thanks to our listeners for joining us. We'll continue tracking developments and what they mean for markets. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

Our Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure Analyst Qianlei Fan discusses how China's travel industry is shifting from a post-pandemic rebound to a multi-year expansion.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Qianlei Fan, Morgan Stanley's Hong Kong / China Transportation Analyst. Today, I'll share my thoughts on why travel is quickly emerging as one of [the] key drivers of China's economic rebalancing.It's Tuesday, March the 3rd, at 2pm in Hong Kong. I've just gotten back from my Lunar New Year trip to mainland China. With the longest Chinese New Year break in history, people were out roaming, exploring, laughing, and the whole country felt like it was buzzing with people on a mission to enjoy every minute. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, total domestic tourism spending recorded a robust 19 percent year-on-year growth during the holiday. In fact, China's tourism industry isn't just rebounding after the pandemic. It's entering a structurally stronger phase, supported by policy tailwinds, demographic shifts, and a clear pivot toward experience-driven consumption. By 2030, tourism revenue could reach RMB 12 trillion – equal to roughly USD $1.7 trillion – implying 11 percent annual growth from the mid-2020s. Over the next five years, cumulative domestic and inbound revenue may approach RMB 50 trillion, or USD $7.2 trillion. That scale makes travel more than a cyclical recovery – it's becoming a core pillar of China's consumption-led growth. We expect tourism's share of GDP to rise to about 6.7 percent by 2030, up from 4.8 percent in 2024.Domestic travel remains the backbone. People aren't just traveling again; they're traveling more than before. Policy is reinforcing demand. Extended public holidays, new school breaks, and event-driven tourism are boosting activity. In 2025 alone, around 3,000 large-scale performances attracted more than 43 million attendees. And spending reflects that shift. Domestic tourism spending reached RMB 6.3 trillion in 2025, about 11 percent above pre-COVID levels. Even with slightly lower spend per trip, more frequent travel is lifting overall revenue.International travel is emerging as a second growth engine. By 2030, inbound travel could represent 16 percent of total tourism revenue. In late 2025, inbound visitor growth in major cities was up about 30–50 percent year-over-year, supported by expanded visa-free access, which now accounts for the majority of foreign arrivals. These visitors often stay longer and spend more. Outbound travel is strengthening too. International air traffic grew 22 percent in 2025, far outpacing domestic growth, and now contributes a meaningful share of airline revenue. Demographics and technology are reinforcing the trend. Younger consumers prioritize travel, while older households – with substantial savings – are beginning to spend more as services improve. At the same time, smart hotels, virtual reality attractions, and data-driven operations are enhancing engagement and willingness to pay. This isn't just pent-up demand. It's policy, demographics, technology, and supply aligning at once. – with travel at the center of China's consumption story.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Listen and subscribe to Money Making Conversations on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, www.moneymakingconversations.com/subscribe/ or wherever you listen to podcasts. New Money Making Conversations episodes drop daily. I want to alert you, so you don’t miss out on expert analysis and insider perspectives from my guests who provide tips that can help you uplift the community, improve your financial planning, motivation, or advice on how to be a successful entrepreneur. Keep winning! Two-time Emmy and Three-time NAACP Image Award-winning, television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed Sonia Balfour-Fears. Here you go — a clean, structured summary of the Sonia Balfour‑Fears interview with Rushion McDonald, plus purpose, key takeaways, and notable quotes, all based on the transcript you provided. SUMMARY OF THE INTERVIEW In this Money Making Conversations Masterclass episode, Rushion McDonald interviews Sonia Balfour‑Fears, a high‑ranking Global Sports & Entertainment Director and Financial Advisor at Morgan Stanley. Sonia discusses the Black wealth gap, financial literacy, investing basics, barriers that minorities face in wealth-building, and the realities of long-term investing. She emphasizes education, discipline, and access as critical factors for closing the wealth gap. She also explains how investors of different ages—from young adults to retirees—share a common need: guidance and a financial plan. Sonia breaks down misconceptions about stock market participation, cryptocurrency, “hot stocks,” risk tolerance, dividend investing, and the best way to start investing even with small amounts of money. Throughout the interview, Sonia provides approachable frameworks for beginners—emergency funds, diversified investing, index funds—and stresses that it’s never too late to begin investing, even at age 60 or older. PURPOSE OF THE INTERVIEW The interview aims to: 1. Educate listeners on financial literacy Sonia explains fundamentals such as emergency funds, risk tolerance, asset allocation, diversification, and long‑term wealth building. 2. Address misconceptions about minority participation in investing She clarifies that minority participation is rising but that more people need professional guidance rather than DIY risk-taking. 3. Provide practical starting points for new investors She gives clear steps for people with small amounts of money and explains how to build wealth intentionally. 4. Encourage multigenerational financial conversations Sonia discusses creating the first African‑American mother‑daughter wealth management team, emphasizing the importance of knowledge transfer. 5. Inspire listeners to rethink age and investing She strongly argues that it is never too late to start building wealth. KEY TAKEAWAYS 1. Closing the Black Wealth Gap Requires Knowledge + Access Wealth-building is tied to discipline, education, and opportunity. Financial literacy helps people understand how money works so they can build long-term wealth..txt) 2. Discipline Is as Important as Income Sonia compares investing discipline to waking up early, exercising, and staying consistent with lifestyle habits..txt) 3. Everyone — Young or Old — Needs Professional Financial Guidance Clients in their 20s and clients nearing retirement share a common need:a roadmap created by someone who does this every day..txt) 4. Minorities Are Investing More — But Not Always With Advisors Many young minorities enter through crypto or apps, but they often lack solid planning..txt) 5. Cryptocurrency Isn’t for Everyone Morgan Stanley limits Bitcoin access to accredited investors with at least $1M on the platform due to high volatility..txt) 6. How to Start Investing: Build an Emergency Fund First 6 months of expenses if single; 3 months if married. After that, “start where you are”—even $100/month..txt) 7. Avoid “Hot Stock” Thinking Sonia discourages short-term stock chasing. Recommends S&P 500 index funds instead of individual picks..txt) 8. Risk Tolerance Shapes Your Portfolio Aggressive = stocks. Conservative = more fixed income. Use personal behavior (e.g., gambling habits) to assess risk comfort..txt) 9. It Is Never Too Late to Invest A 60-year-old caller is reminded she could live to 90–95; that’s 30 years to grow investments..txt) 10. Dividend Stocks Provide Strong Income Today Dividend-paying stocks often yield more income than bonds in today’s market..txt) NOTABLE QUOTES (from transcript) On Closing the Wealth Gap “Education is another way… to understand the different components of building wealth.”.txt) On Discipline “It’s the discipline to really… be intentional about understanding what your money can do for you.”.txt) On Minority Participation “I really see a lot more minorities getting into investing… but working with a financial professional, not as many.”.txt) On Crypto + Risk “We set the criteria very high because the potential for loss is tremendous. So is the potential for gain.”.txt) On Starting with Small Amounts “You start where you are. And if it’s $100 a month, that’s where you start.”.txt) On ‘Hot Stocks’ “Our team primarily focuses on longer‑term investing… it’s all about asset allocation.”.txt) On Being 60 and Beginning to Invest “It is definitely, definitely not too late… If you’re close to 60, we anticipate you’ll live to 90 or 95.”.txt) On Dividend Investing “You get more income from dividends these days than you do from bonds.”.txt) #SHMS #STRAW #BESTSupport the show: https://www.steveharveyfm.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen and subscribe to Money Making Conversations on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, www.moneymakingconversations.com/subscribe/ or wherever you listen to podcasts. New Money Making Conversations episodes drop daily. I want to alert you, so you don’t miss out on expert analysis and insider perspectives from my guests who provide tips that can help you uplift the community, improve your financial planning, motivation, or advice on how to be a successful entrepreneur. Keep winning! Two-time Emmy and Three-time NAACP Image Award-winning, television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed Sonia Balfour-Fears. Here you go — a clean, structured summary of the Sonia Balfour‑Fears interview with Rushion McDonald, plus purpose, key takeaways, and notable quotes, all based on the transcript you provided. SUMMARY OF THE INTERVIEW In this Money Making Conversations Masterclass episode, Rushion McDonald interviews Sonia Balfour‑Fears, a high‑ranking Global Sports & Entertainment Director and Financial Advisor at Morgan Stanley. Sonia discusses the Black wealth gap, financial literacy, investing basics, barriers that minorities face in wealth-building, and the realities of long-term investing. She emphasizes education, discipline, and access as critical factors for closing the wealth gap. She also explains how investors of different ages—from young adults to retirees—share a common need: guidance and a financial plan. Sonia breaks down misconceptions about stock market participation, cryptocurrency, “hot stocks,” risk tolerance, dividend investing, and the best way to start investing even with small amounts of money. Throughout the interview, Sonia provides approachable frameworks for beginners—emergency funds, diversified investing, index funds—and stresses that it’s never too late to begin investing, even at age 60 or older. PURPOSE OF THE INTERVIEW The interview aims to: 1. Educate listeners on financial literacy Sonia explains fundamentals such as emergency funds, risk tolerance, asset allocation, diversification, and long‑term wealth building. 2. Address misconceptions about minority participation in investing She clarifies that minority participation is rising but that more people need professional guidance rather than DIY risk-taking. 3. Provide practical starting points for new investors She gives clear steps for people with small amounts of money and explains how to build wealth intentionally. 4. Encourage multigenerational financial conversations Sonia discusses creating the first African‑American mother‑daughter wealth management team, emphasizing the importance of knowledge transfer. 5. Inspire listeners to rethink age and investing She strongly argues that it is never too late to start building wealth. KEY TAKEAWAYS 1. Closing the Black Wealth Gap Requires Knowledge + Access Wealth-building is tied to discipline, education, and opportunity. Financial literacy helps people understand how money works so they can build long-term wealth..txt) 2. Discipline Is as Important as Income Sonia compares investing discipline to waking up early, exercising, and staying consistent with lifestyle habits..txt) 3. Everyone — Young or Old — Needs Professional Financial Guidance Clients in their 20s and clients nearing retirement share a common need:a roadmap created by someone who does this every day..txt) 4. Minorities Are Investing More — But Not Always With Advisors Many young minorities enter through crypto or apps, but they often lack solid planning..txt) 5. Cryptocurrency Isn’t for Everyone Morgan Stanley limits Bitcoin access to accredited investors with at least $1M on the platform due to high volatility..txt) 6. How to Start Investing: Build an Emergency Fund First 6 months of expenses if single; 3 months if married. After that, “start where you are”—even $100/month..txt) 7. Avoid “Hot Stock” Thinking Sonia discourages short-term stock chasing. Recommends S&P 500 index funds instead of individual picks..txt) 8. Risk Tolerance Shapes Your Portfolio Aggressive = stocks. Conservative = more fixed income. Use personal behavior (e.g., gambling habits) to assess risk comfort..txt) 9. It Is Never Too Late to Invest A 60-year-old caller is reminded she could live to 90–95; that’s 30 years to grow investments..txt) 10. Dividend Stocks Provide Strong Income Today Dividend-paying stocks often yield more income than bonds in today’s market..txt) NOTABLE QUOTES (from transcript) On Closing the Wealth Gap “Education is another way… to understand the different components of building wealth.”.txt) On Discipline “It’s the discipline to really… be intentional about understanding what your money can do for you.”.txt) On Minority Participation “I really see a lot more minorities getting into investing… but working with a financial professional, not as many.”.txt) On Crypto + Risk “We set the criteria very high because the potential for loss is tremendous. So is the potential for gain.”.txt) On Starting with Small Amounts “You start where you are. And if it’s $100 a month, that’s where you start.”.txt) On ‘Hot Stocks’ “Our team primarily focuses on longer‑term investing… it’s all about asset allocation.”.txt) On Being 60 and Beginning to Invest “It is definitely, definitely not too late… If you’re close to 60, we anticipate you’ll live to 90 or 95.”.txt) On Dividend Investing “You get more income from dividends these days than you do from bonds.”.txt) #SHMS #STRAW #BESTSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.