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United Public Radio
News On he Flipside WOW new Pope that was fast judge and a mayor arrested by ice wow and much more !

United Public Radio

Play Episode Listen Later May 10, 2025 187:38


Signature of alien life 'found' 120 light years from Earth SR-72 Darkstar Has 1 ‘Weapon' China Can't Seem to Match Soviet spacecraft plunging back to Earth 53 years after launching Inside US $250 Million Bunker Plane That Can Fly Non Stop for an Entire Week Scientists warn major volcano could erupt tomorrow and push built-up magma to surface Alexi Lalas sends stern warning after Donald Trump meeting ahead of World Cup US military taps Rocket Lab's new Neutron launcher for ‘point to point' cargo test flight in 2026 US Air Force's massive 53-aircraft runway exercise 'sends a message you can't ignore' to rivals like China Newark Mayor Baraka Arrested Outside ICE Detention Center Next-Gen F-35: Faster, Smarter, Holographic Scientists make groundbreaking discovery about Pluto's formation China has hypersonic missiles in orbit ready to strike, report indicates US Testing Sweden's Super Advanced Patrol Boat SpaceX Starship & Starbase Launch!

RiskCellar
Risk & Rumble: Tyson vs. Paul, Battery Fires, Tariffs and more

RiskCellar

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 21, 2024 44:50


Ever wondered what happens when technology, humor, and serious industry shifts collide? In this episode, we dive into everything from the peculiarities of streaming a Mike Tyson fight to the quirks of interacting with smart assistants like Alexa. Along the way, we reflect on Tyson's performance, financial wins, and how even scripted events can spark deeper conversations about resilience and entertainment. Our exploration of politics takes a sharp yet humorous turn, touching on figures like Matt Gaetz and Mitch McConnell, their controversies, and the credibility of media narratives. From RFK Jr.'s potential health initiatives to the unpredictable political appointments of Fox News personalities, the discussion offers a lighthearted but insightful take on leadership and decision-making. Fans of AI and wine alike will enjoy a discussion inspired by Lex Friedman's podcast featuring Dario Amodi of Anthropic, where the evolution of AI meets the quirks of building "relationships" with ChatGPT. This tech talk is paired with a surprisingly affordable organic wine recommendation—courtesy of our favorite AI tool. We also address more serious topics, including the decline of downtown Minneapolis as remote work reshapes urban landscapes, and the challenges faced by the Florida insurance market. Rounding out the episode, we cover Marsh's acquisitions, laugh at outlandish insurance fraud stories, and unpack the safety concerns behind a major bed rail recall. Timestamps 00:00 - The Rise of Ascend: Simplifying Insurance Billing for Everyone 01:34 - Golf Tournament Insights: The Value of Premium Finance 03:02 - Humor Meets AI: The Future of Talking to Machines 06:34 - Micromobility America: Battery Fires and Tariff Talk 10:18 - Tariffs and China: Can the U.S. Manufacturing Sector Compete? 16:07 - Organic Wines and ChatGPT: A New Kind of Sommelier 19:00 - Why Downtown Minneapolis Feels Like a Ghost Town 26:05 - HDI's Expansion: The Future of Mobility Insurance 28:14 - Burning Concerns: Lithium-Ion Battery Safety and Innovation 33:52 - Bear Fraud in California: Staged Attacks for Insurance Scams 36:58 - Portable Bed Rails Recall: Tragedy and Safety Lessons 40:07 - Trivia Time: Flamingos, Gold, and The Office Connect with RiskCellar: Website: https://www.riskcellar.com/ Brandon Schuh: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61552710523314 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brandon-stephen-schuh/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/schuhpapa/ Nick Hartmann: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nickjhartmann/

Interviews: Tech and Business
Responsible AI, Public Policy, and Social Impact: A Conversation from the House of Lords

Interviews: Tech and Business

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2023 44:16


#responsibleai #aiethics #publicpolicy As AI and other emerging technologies race ahead at lightning speed, establishing ethical guardrails has become urgent. In this forward-looking episode of CXOTalk, Lord Tim Clement-Jones of the UK House of Lords offers a thoughtful perspective on navigating this complex landscape.With an eye toward practical solutions, he discusses how to assess risks and shape regulations to enable innovation. He advocates bringing together diverse voices internationally to find common ground on AI safety standards. Lord Clement-Jones stresses tackling online harms thoughtfully and avoiding regulatory overreach. Throughout the wide-ranging conversation, his level-headed advice provides direction for policymakers and technologists alike. Ultimately, Lord Clement-Jones aims to balance rapid progress with collaborative, proactive efforts to ensure AI and related technologies benefit humanity.Our guest co-host for this episode is QuHarrison Terry.Subscribe: www.cxotalk.com/subscribeSee all episode details: https://www.cxotalk.com/episode/ai-public-policy-and-social-impact-a-conversation-from-the-house-of-lordsThe topics covered in this conversation include:► Opening discussion on regulating emerging technologies► Balancing AI innovation and regulation► The “black box, autonomous” nature of AI is hard to regulate► Importance of regulatory standards for AI► High-risk AI applications like facial recognition► UK Online Safety Bill aims to balance harms and expression► Regulating platforms and content risk assessments► Responsible AI and technology industry consolidation of power► AI regulation and impact on competition with China► Can the UK Online Harms Bill be used as a template for AI regulation?► How to balance risk against innovation► Applying responsible AI and ethics to autonomous weapon systems► Impact of Brexit on attracting AI companies and talent► Tackling misinformation and disinformation► Advice for policymakers - Convene and collaborate► Advice for business and technology leaders on responsible AILord Clement-Jones was made CBE for political services in 1988 and a life peer in 1998. He is Liberal Democrat House of Lords spokesperson for Science, Innovation and Technology; a member of the AI in Weapons Systems Select Committee; former Chair of [the very first] House of Lords Select Committee on AI which sat from 2017-18; Co-Chair and founder of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on AI; a founding member of OECD's Parliamentary Group on AI and a Consultant on AI Policy and Regulation to global law firm, DLA Piper.QuHarrison Terry is head of growth marketing at Mark Cuban Companies, a Texas venture capital firm, where he advises and assists portfolio companies with their marketing strategies and objectives.

Retirement Unlimited
The US Dollar and US Economy 04 - 29 - 23

Retirement Unlimited

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2023 25:00


In this episode of Retirement Unlimited, Randy looks into the changes in the US Dollar with articles such as “The Dollar Rules the Financial Universe. China Can't Change That“ and “King Dollar Still Safe From the Yuan”. Randy then looks at how this will affect the US ecomony with articles such as "It's Worse Than You Think" and "A Daunting Arsenal" Enjoy!

Finance & Fury Podcast
Moral hazard and the Evergrande collapse

Finance & Fury Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2021 25:00


Welcome to Finance and Fury. In this episode we will be looking at the Property market in China and focus on the Evergrande developments – in particular if there is actually a timebomb starting to surface – and look at the potential contagion risks to the rest of the world – such as the Aus and US Many in the press are comparing what is happening to Evergrande as another Lehman's moment – which was one of the defining collapses of a financial institution that lead to the flow of effects culminating in the GFC – it is understandable that the media takes this route – Lehman's is a recognisable name and fear and doom scenarios generates more clicks and sells more adds – but is this worst-case scenario true? Is the collapse of Evergrande really going to lead to another global financial crisis? A few weeks ago – we covered where the next financial collapse is likely to come from – between the USA and China - Two factors were the focus – leverage and contagion risks Looking at leverage - Credit growth is a major risk to almost every market – both from bonds from investors and lending from bank of financial institution borrowing – both of these are relevant to the private sector in China Credit growth is even a concern in Australia – APRA worried about banks and lending – they have increased their servicing cost by 0.5% - worried about credit growth vastly outpacing income growth But the major focus for any systemic issue is the contagion risks – if one company defaults, does this create a GFC, or just a collapse of an isolated entity – The loss potentials are substantially different between both scenarios – one is investors in a company losing money versus every investor globally losing funds due to collapsing markets world wide – the degree they collapse also is different If Evergrande fails – what does this matter? At this stage - The irony of the contagion risks is from the increased news coverage that this topic is being granted – if a topic is covered in the news everywhere – this creates uncertainty and fear – investors can panic – this creates real market declines, so the risk of market declines become a self-fulfilling prophecy – even me covering this topic can create some level of risk aversion, which may cause people to sell off investments – but is there more than just the normal fears in the markets from media coverage occurring? To start with - What is happening in China – We need to look at their property market, or more specifically the debt that property developers hold – especially in relation to Evergrande and Chinese economy at large Chinese economy - the rise and fall of Evergrande is tied into the economy of China quite heavily – Evergrande is China's second largest property developer – but this ranks around 147th in the world – but it is the most indebted property developer in the world – which should start to ring some alarm bells – it's on balance sheet liabilities amount to around 2% of Chinas GDP – off balance sheet – this could be higher – and likely is A company in isolation with debt isn't much of an issue – but a company with too much debt can be a problem – In isolation this isn't too much of an issue – if the company defaults but business in other sectors of the economy continues as normal then markets may go down a bit but then continue as normal – but what if this one company is a sign of greater systemic issues - where most of the companies in your country in this sector have the same problems – that of having too much debt that they are likely to default on? Especially in the property sector – The BIS released a paper showing that Chinese non-financial companies have 160% Debt to GDP, versus in the US where it is about 80% - so double in China compared to the US – Property also has an overweight on GDP compared to the US It is estimated that property development makes up around 25% of China's GDP – this growth has been fuelled by Debt – this is a major issue for the CCP - China property market – the history over the past 20 years The increase in demand for property and the increase in pricing has been fuelled by massive amounts of urbanisation – rural workers/population moving to cities for work and a better income for their families High demand for properties in desirable cites has massively inflated the property values in these urban environment – developers often sell every property in a development in advance of the construction even starting This has led to lower quality – contractors skimming on materials to lower costs – where constructions can actually collapse in a few years after completion Prices to income ratios – results in a situation where you have generations of people living in one apartment trying to repay the loans We think that Australia is bad – and it is – but many major cities in China, such as Shenzhen see 43 times the average household income in property prices – compared to Sydney which was around 13 times at the peak of the market Speculation – large increases in property prices saw massive speculation in developers – if you think that the property that you will construct today can lead to a 50% gain in the next year or two – then you will likely borrow large chunks of money to bank on this trend Lead to many apartments not being rented, and purchasers buying up more than one property – but the limit per family is capped The population is also limited in what they can invest in – so property is where most of the upper middle class and beyond put their life savings Large property developers are politically connected – But this has created moral hazard – every loan given, or bond investments have been made based around how likely it is for the government to bail out these developers Rather than on their ability to meet the debt repayment cashflow Moral hazard is a large component of any investment or economic decision – as an example – say you have an expensive car – now in one situation you have comprehensive insurance and in another you have no cover – in which situation are you likely to drive a little more recklessly, or park this in a car park unattended overnight? Same goes for insurances – especially if you are forced to have insurances – you may as well use it for your premiums – such as health insurances – But what if we are talking about a government backing debt for bail outs – and that is the expectation of the markets – this creates a moral hazard - But China realised they have a debt problem – as well as a moral hazard problem - so policy makers tried to reign this in – focusing on moral hazard first and foremost Policy changes – the CCP put together that their economic growth is mostly paper/debt based – where the growth they are receiving in GDP is funded through borrowing from property expansion – which is not sustainable in real terms They want to transition their economy to more long-term sustainable growth – real estate is the most important sector in their economy at the moment – but this is debt reliant – they prefer real returns – which is why you see a push towards resources and other manufacturing sectors – but a real issue in China is the affordability of property ­ Look at government policy across the world – they always say that they promise to tackle issues of property affordability – but then comes a situation where prices are starting to decline – what do governments do? Create policies to help prop prices up to avoid a decline which could have further reaching issues – governments don't want bubbles, but they don't want a collapse China appears to be the first government in a long time to not follow this pattern – they are trying to change moral hazard – and expectations in the market -which can easily lead to collapses in the property sector Rather than bail out Evergrande – which would be easy for the CCP – it appears that at this stage they have decided to let this company deal with their own problems This is technically how it should be – but it is rare to see this response I think this is mostly due to their Hard lines polices – trying to reduce the economy reliance on debts – They actually introduced three hard line policies on property developers in Aug 2020 These are hard limits on property developers – relating to their liability to asset ratios, net debt to equity ratios, cash to short term debt ratios – all of these are important when it comes to developers who fund their projects using debt now for equity in the future Had an instant effect on property development firms – no longer could you raise capital through debt funding as most developers were above the allowable ratios What made this is worse, is they had to reduce their debt levels – to do so they were quickly forces to sell down assets and taking losses – this caused prices of property to fall, so the valuation on their assets started to go down This made it worse - These losses make their ratios look worse – making these companies need to deleverage further – this can lead into a downwards spiral On top of this – because the prices of property started to slow as well last year – to make more pre-sales – Evergrande needed to offer some discounts on the pre-sales – this lead to less liquidity available – less liquidity meant they don't have the money to fund debt repayments as they come due Evergrande itself – In the property sector – the company acts like a conglomerate Property development, property management, and Wealth management products – They are looking to sell of property management – recoup $5bn But wealth management products – WMPs may be a concern – this is around $6bn – Small number – but investor fury has made this more of a social issue But these investors were told they would get a guaranteed 12% return on their investment p.a. This money was used to help close funding caps that the parent company had in construction – This is fine, as long as the returns on the property sales in the year are more than 12% to repay investors - But for a time they weren't – this meant that new investor flows had to be used to make repayments to existing investors – in the process there was less to help close the funding gap – But then add onto this the slump in sales – then you start to have a real issue – as more and more new investor flows need to be used to repay existing investors – which is the basis of a ponzi scheme – but moral hazard still existed – investors had the certainty in their own minds that this was a sure bet – as any defaults would be covered by the government The issue is based around the moral hazard – investors thought their returns were guaranteed with little risk - but where it can get bad is contagion risks Fallout effects – will come from two areas – property domestically in China – which will spread out and have their own issues – as well as contagion risks throughout the economy and throughout the world Property prices in China – Can see a decline – if they liquidate and need to sell off the property development – could see a fire sale of assets and property prices decline The fact they are trying to sell quick is bad for property – fire sales see massive price reductions Domestic fallout – People who have placed deposits on properties that may never be built – lose those funds People who have invested in the WMPs – will also lose money – you will start to see some social issues This will reduce the trust in property investment – Evergrande employs lots of people – around 4m – which would be huge for a country like Australia – but out of a population over around 1.4bn is about 0.29% of the population Contagion risks – who owns the debt and are there any derivatives on this? Look at the debt - $300bn of debt – bonds issued – estimated that only around $20bn of this is overseas debts – the rest is domestic – these foreign bonds are priced in at around 25-30c on the dollar – depending on their maturity China is a large economy – it can pretty easily soak up these losses – even though $300bn is a large amount of debt to cover This is owned across 128 banks and 121 non-bank institutions Investment managers – investing in risky emerging market debts - Ashmore group, BlackRock Inc, UBS and HSBC hold $450m, $400m, $300m, and $200m, respectively – which isn't too much for these groups to absorb Best case scenario – Evergrande will be allowed to collapse – the parts will be bought up by other developers in the nation at a fire sale rate – i.e. getting a good discount The People Bank of China will also likely buy out some of the debt - Like JP Morgan Buying Bear Stern back in the GFC – with help and oversight from the FED – but this doesn't solve all the problems But the issue comes back to the moral hazard – the CCP wants to minimise speculative risks Evergrande by itself defaulting isn't a risk for markets – but it does spell some risks – of over leverage throughout the system – if many other developers start to see the same systemic issues of overleverage and issues in meeting their debt obligations, then you get into further trouble Fantasia – another property developer failed to make a bond payment - missed $315 million in payments to lenders – created further fears that financial strains in the country's outsized property sector are spreading beyond the troubled Evergrande conglomerate. S&P and Moody's slapped "default" credit ratings on Fantasia Lessons to be learnt – The moral hazard and the belief in a sure thing – the belief before the GFC is that debt on peoples homes was a sure thing – not many people would default all at once, so package up 1000s of mortgage holders debt and make bets on this But due to this belief, lax lending standards were employed – this then turned out that due to the belief that things couldn't go bad, resulted in them going bad due to too much risk How this is different from the GFC – Derivative used in making bets on the property market Credit swaps, derivatives on CDO – this doesn't seem to be occurring in China – and the banks' ability to eat losses on the debt isn't too great to not be able to recover Lehman's collapse was considered to be the plug of the dam being pulled in the GFC – property prices dropped, people defaulted on debt then Lehman went into default – but only due to their exposure to complex CDOs and derivative positions – If these don't exist on Evergrande – which it appears at this stage they don't – then there is less contagion risk – But who knows – there is no way to tell until it is too late – however, there hasn't been much in the way of transaction in credit default swaps in banks like HSBC which have greater exposure to the Chinese debt markets It took Lehman over a year to default and go bankrupt – so time will tell how this pays out Where things could get worse – is if more developers start to default – showing greater systemic risks My gut feel is that the China growth from property is coming to an end – This will likely have larger effects on the commodity markets – such as iron ore – than it will on the global share market in the short term – but if their property market starts to decline due to defaults on developers and a lack of trust – this leaves their economy very susceptible Your guess is as good as mine as how this will turn out – we will keep an eye on this Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/

Israel News Talk Radio
The Facts Behind the Beirut Explosion and More - The Walter Bingham File

Israel News Talk Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2020 45:19


The Outrageous: Insulting action by Tel Aviv’s Mayor who seems ignorant of the distinction between humanitarian help and honouring an enemy. Shurat Hadin: Israel’s foremost legal NGO explains in detail the background to the Beirut explosion. Turmoil: In America. How the House of Representatives has replaced the primacy of dialogue with self-promoting monologue. Joe Biden: Under wraps and following the advice of Abraham Lincoln: ”Better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt”. The Irish example: Can we convince the Palestinian Arabs that it is better to live for one’s ideals, than to die for them? The fear of China: Can we deal with their electronic superiority and plan to dominate the world’s infrastructure projects? Warped Democracy: Time to clip the wings of the High Court. Defrauding Voters. The Mystery: Of the open borders for Palestinian Arabs. The schools Dilemma: Health or economy? Covid 19: Where do we go from here? And More. The Walter Bingham File 11AUG2020 - PODCAST

Hot Pizza Ass with Erin Darling Torralva
Epidemiologist Dr. Chelsea Shover Answers Your Coronavirus Questions Again

Hot Pizza Ass with Erin Darling Torralva

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 20, 2020 52:41


Three weeks have passed since we last spoke to Dr. Chelsea Shover. Since then, so much has changed in the research and information surrounding the novel Coronavirus. Dr. Shover joins the podcast again today to answer your questions submitted via Instagram. Questions discussed include: How long will this last? Did Covid 19 escape from a lab in Wuhan, China? Can drinking tea help? How will heat (or scarfs?) affect the virus? Is Covid in the air? Will staying home in a sterile environment affect our immune systems? Is it necessary to wear an N95 mask? Outside of age, gender, and immune health what are other triggers? Can you get reinfected? How screwed is Florida? We also discuss fake cures and clear up some rumors about what people are saying about Covid 19.   Original episode here with links for Covid 19 resources here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hot-pizza-ass-with-erin-darling-torralva/id1483236066?i=1000468510039  

QA Selling Online
Serial entrepreneur building multi-million dollar companies - David Hoffmann

QA Selling Online

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2019 56:50


David Hoffmann David is a serial entrepreneur building multi-million dollar companiesHe has led the international trade powerhouse Global Regency as CEO for over 15 yearshe is considered an expert in China sourcing, supply chain, private label, and brand licensing.In 2016 David launched GlobalTQM.com under the Global Regency umbrella, to assist SMEs, start-ups, and entrepreneurs with quality management issues and sourcing from China with a range of educational and mentoring programs and actual done-for-you services with his resources of +57 people in ChinaExperienced in business, operations, automation, digital marketing, David’s single biggest skill is his ability to master productivity and share the experience. Questions/Topics: When did you know you wanted to take an entrepreneurial path?What have you taken from your early working expreience, to your startup career?What are some hidden risks of importing from China?Can you discuss success stories of business migrating to China manufacturing, and the pro's and con's of such a move?Biggest challenges of sourcing from ChinaNavigating trade shows and suppliersS.M.A.R.T. questions to ask your suppliersIntellectual property protection10 rules to do business in ChinaWhat does it take to do business in China? Company: GlobalTQM - Your Team, Your Office & Your Expertise On The Ground In China. MENTORING AND TRAINING Your shortcut to success, and doing it yourself, with access to professionalsSUPPLIERS & SOURCING Uncover the red flags & the hidden problemsNEGOTIATION TRAINING: Negotiate with suppliers like a proCOMPLIANCE & LAB TESTING Avoid expensive recalls, damaging lawsuits & fake compliance documents Links: www.globaltqm.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/globaltqm/https://www.facebook.com/GLOBALTQM/

Big Drew & Jim
Shea Patterson's Optimism, Bleacher Report Teases Matthew Stafford, NFC's Top Teams, & NBA vs. China

Big Drew & Jim

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 9, 2019 120:23


Big Drew and Jim were LIVE from Betten Baker Chevrolet Buick in Coopersville discussing Shea Patterson's optimism with Michigan's offense; the Bleacher Report going after Matthew Stafford; the NFC's top teams right now; and the current dysfunction between the NBA and China:- Shea Patterson believes Michigan's offense is ready to take off. Does anyone believe him?- Lions players and fans are not happy with Bleacher Report. Do they have a right to be upset?- NBA vs. China: Can a resolution be reached?- Who are the NFC's Top Three teams currently? Are the Packers an elite NFC team?

VIEWPOINT THIS SUNDAY

The Top Stories – Israel says no to Rep. Omar & Rep. Tlaib on their visit, and then the story takes a turn for the worse! Fox News poll shows Trump losing to Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris - do people believe these things? Hong Kong and China - Can the U.S. do anything to stop the takeover? Churches arm, train congregants in wake of mass shootings - good idea? Google warns BILLIONS of website passwords have been hacked - what next? Trump eyes new real estate purchase: Greenland - true or false? Dennis Santiago is an American Strategist focusing on strategic warfare, asymmetric warfare and global stability. Linda Martinelli is a Show Host & Political Commentator, an Entrepreneur and Business Executive. The Sunday Funnies – Bill Maher wants a recession, of course Bill has over 100 millions dollars net worth to play with... "So please bring on the recession, sorry if that hurts people," he says. And entertainers are not the only ones praying for a recession - media outlets and executives are thinking if the economy crashes that will be the end of President Trump. Actors like Johnny Depp are even joking, if you can call it that, about assassination “when was the last time an actor assassinated President”. Our panel will take on the outlandish comments and discuss the impact Trump Derangement Syndrome is having on the nation. Jim McCay is a Political Analyst, Commentator and Radio Producer, and joins us along with Dennis Santiago and Linda Martinelli. The Epstein Autopsy – Jeffrey Epstein even in death he monopolizes the news cycle. The controversy over the events both in his life and now his death promise to continue for quite some time as the lawsuits both criminal and civil will continue. Probably the biggest item at the moment are the results of the medical examiner’s autopsy, which is being questioned by Epstein’s attorneys, the media, the dozens of people that are implicated in this case. We will explore the case and what happens next?! Dr. Ron Martinelli, is a retired police detective, a forensic criminologist, and a national voice known as the “expert’s expert.”  Do remember to Rate the show, leave a quick review and subscribe to Viewpoint on Apple Podcasts by clicking here. Your voice for the fight forward, Malcolm Out Loud. Aug 18th 10 AM EST Encore Presentation AT 6 PM Available on Podcast Networks After 1 PM

Focused Compounding
Ep 94. REPLAY - Checklist For Going Beyond the 10k

Focused Compounding

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2019 45:38


Going Beyond the 10k Checklist (good order to follow. If not durable, we should drop it) • Overview – Give an overview on the business – what is the business, what units make it up, what products do the business have, who are the customers, where do they operate geographically, recent events (spinoffs, the stocks down 50%, why are we looking at this?) who’s their biggest customer, who’s their biggest supplier, what are their biggest product categories (or units, where is rev coming from)• Durability – is the product durable? Have the companies always existed? Have there been changes and challenges before? What’s it based on? Why is this going to continue in the future? Is this a fad? • Moat (does the company have a moat, and what would it be, EX from HBB- Do they outsource it to China, can they outsource it to China? Can other people replicate this easily?) competitive advantage- Where does the moat come from? – high switching costs, patents, contracts, network effects, shelve space, brand, economies of scale – logistics – sales per customer, location location location, regulatory, high barriers to entry, technical skill – reputation, Apple can’t trust a company that’s a startup, intellectual property - owns something that’s intangible, databases, credit records, sports rights, knowledge that others don’t have • Quality (basically talk about ROC, how do they get that return on capital? Break it down, where does it come from? Do they have a higher retention rate? Where is the quality weak? Geoff always asked for customer retention rate, can you always find someplace where there are reviews by customers? Can you get anything that’s ranked in the industry? Like customer service, awards, customer satisfaction surveys, Glassdoor for company culture, need to read between the lines on Glassdoor, look at short interest vs. float, and read short thesis, high price or low price, customer reviews, what do individuals think of the products, which brand would you trust the most? If it comes back a mix then it’s probably the cheapest, how much r&d are they spending as a % of sales and in general, where are they spending this r&d, read Phil Fishers 15-point checklist for quality and growth• Capital Allocation – History of dividends, stock buybacks, stock issuance, CARG in # of shares outstanding, see how management is compensated in the proxy (options, restricted stock, bonus – what are the targets that make up the bonus? ROE, ROC, market cap, etc., how much does management own of the stock? And how significant is that in regard to their salary? What did they say they were going to do in the past? What do they do with FCF historically, can get from transcripts as well, people on the board that we recognize, how much FCF compared to marketcap, could they buy it back? Is there enough float and is the stock liquid enough, did the company ever pay special dividends? Does the company ever acquire things? $MNRO- is their business growth through acquisitions? What type of prices do they pay? Stock or cash• Value – what’s the PE, EV/EBITDA and how does that compare to other companies? Which competitor is better? Why would a company be more expensive or cheaper? Use 5 peers? EX - Is GM cheaper than Ford and why would that make sense? Talk about what management is guiding. Relative value vs. past and competitors, was there ever an offer that was refused or that fell apart? What would an LBO look like? Do they do LBO’s on companies like this? What prices do acquisitions happen in the industry or did peers pay? If looking at Kroger what did AMZN pay for whole foods, etc.• Growth – break down growth. Let’s say they can grow 5% a year, how much is SSS, how much is price increase, how many active users, how much time might they be spending on it, are the ad expenses going up or down, break it all down by geography, are they going to grow in Mexico a lot but not the US, etc.? can they gain market share each year? Compare it to something else that’s already big. Can a cheesecake be as popular as chilis? Probably not. Always think in terms of nominal GDP, population growth, and inflation, how much have real sales grown • Misjudgment – what are other people seeing on the short part of it, what can’t we predict that’s important to what we’re doing, what may we get wrong that our argument rests on, check % short, short thesis, look at press reports to see what people are saying could go wrong, can look at if all the stocks in the industry are affected or just this one, basically trying to find an explanation for why it’s cheap, VIC, read comments to figure out what other people think• Conclusion – take all the things we’ve done and put a mini-analysis together, the elevator pitch – why why why, whats going to drive the stock. talk in terms of 3 things: how safe is this, how high quality is this, how cheap is this – safe: DEBT/EBITDA, F Z Score, years of positive earnings, cash flow, is it positive? Is it always positive? FCF, Variation in margins. Google S&P, Fitch, Moodys to check bond ratings, check interest rate on debt. Quality: long-term CAGR of stock, is it high enough, is it a good industry – CAGR on other stocks, is it a cyclical, are these companies’ products, services, etc. as good as the competition? Is the culture as good as other places? Cheap: EV-EBITDA, EV-SALES, relative valuation (cheap compared to self, cheap compared to peers) Private owner value, absolute value (is this stock cheap for a normal stock at a normal time – average stock is 15-16x PE in normal times) • Appraisal – come up with a method for appraising the stock Being the journalist: go to the proxy statement and find out who owns stock in the company, google all of their names to learn about who they are and learn about them Get satellite images of their HQ and properties – get a sense of why they would put the HQ where it’s at, google the town to learn about income and significant things in the town Glassdoor – if found anything that’s weird, look into it Look for news on the company, EX: http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38722953/community-stunned-by-trees-mowed-down-in-west-maui-but-state-defends-project, write it down, the project is starting) Look at BBB Look for information about the industry group – timber, core processors – learn what that is, find what the company is and industry terms and stuff. What’s the business model? Read reviews on websites like Yelp, TripAdvisor, Etc.       Join our free stock writeup list at: https://www.focusedcompoundinggazette.com/     Contact Andrew at:  Twitter: @Focusedcompound Email:  info@focusedcompounding.com   Contact Geoff at: Twitter: @GeoffGannon Email:  gannononinvesting@gmail.com

Focused Compounding
Ep 58. Checklist For Going Beyond the 10K

Focused Compounding

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2018 45:38


Going Beyond the 10k Checklist (good order to follow. If not durable, we should drop it) • Overview – Give an overview on the business – what is the business, what units make it up, what products do the business have, who are the customers, where do they operate geographically, recent events (spinoffs, the stocks down 50%, why are we looking at this?) who’s their biggest customer, who’s their biggest supplier, what are their biggest product categories (or units, where is rev coming from)• Durability – is the product durable? Have the companies always existed? Have there been changes and challenges before? What’s it based on? Why is this going to continue in the future? Is this a fad? • Moat (does the company have a moat, and what would it be, EX from HBB- Do they outsource it to China, can they outsource it to China? Can other people replicate this easily?) competitive advantage- Where does the moat come from? – high switching costs, patents, contracts, network effects, shelve space, brand, economies of scale – logistics – sales per customer, location location location, regulatory, high barriers to entry, technical skill – reputation, Apple can’t trust a company that’s a startup, intellectual property - owns something that’s intangible, databases, credit records, sports rights, knowledge that others don’t have • Quality (basically talk about ROC, how do they get that return on capital? Break it down, where does it come from? Do they have a higher retention rate? Where is the quality weak? Geoff always asked for customer retention rate, can you always find someplace where there are reviews by customers? Can you get anything that’s ranked in the industry? Like customer service, awards, customer satisfaction surveys, Glassdoor for company culture, need to read between the lines on Glassdoor, look at short interest vs. float, and read short thesis, high price or low price, customer reviews, what do individuals think of the products, which brand would you trust the most? If it comes back a mix then it’s probably the cheapest, how much r&d are they spending as a % of sales and in general, where are they spending this r&d, read Phil Fishers 15-point checklist for quality and growth• Capital Allocation – History of dividends, stock buybacks, stock issuance, CARG in # of shares outstanding, see how management is compensated in the proxy (options, restricted stock, bonus – what are the targets that make up the bonus? ROE, ROC, market cap, etc., how much does management own of the stock? And how significant is that in regard to their salary? What did they say they were going to do in the past? What do they do with FCF historically, can get from transcripts as well, people on the board that we recognize, how much FCF compared to marketcap, could they buy it back? Is there enough float and is the stock liquid enough, did the company ever pay special dividends? Does the company ever acquire things? $MNRO- is their business growth through acquisitions? What type of prices do they pay? Stock or cash• Value – what’s the PE, EV/EBITDA and how does that compare to other companies? Which competitor is better? Why would a company be more expensive or cheaper? Use 5 peers? EX - Is GM cheaper than Ford and why would that make sense? Talk about what management is guiding. Relative value vs. past and competitors, was there ever an offer that was refused or that fell apart? What would an LBO look like? Do they do LBO’s on companies like this? What prices do acquisitions happen in the industry or did peers pay? If looking at Kroger what did AMZN pay for whole foods, etc.• Growth – break down growth. Let’s say they can grow 5% a year, how much is SSS, how much is price increase, how many active users, how much time might they be spending on it, are the ad expenses going up or down, break it all down by geography, are they going to grow in Mexico a lot but not the US, etc.? can they gain market share each year? Compare it to something else that’s already big. Can a cheesecake be as popular as chilis? Probably not. Always think in terms of nominal GDP, population growth, and inflation, how much have real sales grown • Misjudgment – what are other people seeing on the short part of it, what can’t we predict that’s important to what we’re doing, what may we get wrong that our argument rests on, check % short, short thesis, look at press reports to see what people are saying could go wrong, can look at if all the stocks in the industry are affected or just this one, basically trying to find an explanation for why it’s cheap, VIC, read comments to figure out what other people think• Conclusion – take all the things we’ve done and put a mini-analysis together, the elevator pitch – why why why, whats going to drive the stock. talk in terms of 3 things: how safe is this, how high quality is this, how cheap is this – safe: DEBT/EBITDA, F Z Score, years of positive earnings, cash flow, is it positive? Is it always positive? FCF, Variation in margins. Google S&P, Fitch, Moodys to check bond ratings, check interest rate on debt. Quality: long-term CAGR of stock, is it high enough, is it a good industry – CAGR on other stocks, is it a cyclical, are these companies’ products, services, etc. as good as the competition? Is the culture as good as other places? Cheap: EV-EBITDA, EV-SALES, relative valuation (cheap compared to self, cheap compared to peers) Private owner value, absolute value (is this stock cheap for a normal stock at a normal time – average stock is 15-16x PE in normal times) • Appraisal – come up with a method for appraising the stock Being the journalist: go to the proxy statement and find out who owns stock in the company, google all of their names to learn about who they are and learn about them Get satellite images of their HQ and properties – get a sense of why they would put the HQ where it’s at, google the town to learn about income and significant things in the town Glassdoor – if found anything that’s weird, look into it Look for news on the company, EX: http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38722953/community-stunned-by-trees-mowed-down-in-west-maui-but-state-defends-project, write it down, the project is starting) Look at BBB Look for information about the industry group – timber, core processors – learn what that is, find what the company is and industry terms and stuff. What’s the business model? Read reviews on websites like Yelp, TripAdvisor, Etc.       Join our free memo distribution list at - www.focusedcompounding.com   Thanks for listening, and be sure to sign up using the promo code **Podcast** to get $10 off your monthly subscription price forever.   Contact Andrew at:  Twitter: @Focusedcompound Email:  info@focusedcompounding.com   Contact Geoff at: Twitter: @GeoffGannon Email:  gannononinvesting@gmail.com  

China Business Cast
Ep. 31: PR done right in China for Startups with Simon Vericel from Influence Matters

China Business Cast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 28, 2016 43:12


This week we interview Simon Vericel speaking about the right way to do PR (Public relations) in China. Simon has 10+ years of PR experience helping Chinese companies managing their PR overseas and helping foreign companies running PR campaigns is China. About Simon VericelHe is a seasoned communication strategist and team leader with a knack for business development and kick-starting things. Simon has more than 10 years experience designing highly efficient influencer and stakeholder engagement campaigns for leading Chinese brands overseas, global multinationals in China and tech startups experiencing rapid growth. He has particular focus on B2B, corporate communications, strategic positioning and messaging, media relations and crisis management across all traditional and digital platforms.Over a decade working in China has given him a unique perspective on the key factors for successful communications campaigns in the country that translate into increased awareness, reputation and sales.His industry focus covers high tech, mobile, semiconductors, IT services and software. He also have deep experience in healthcare, automotive, energy, F&B, government, finance and sports. Episode Content:Can you focus us on what you do now? what your company does?Is PR in China is different than the rest of the world?What Strategy mean in the PR world?what exactly you do to find the right strategy? Tips for startups and SMEs companies doing PR themselves in China.When is the stage for a foreign business that they would need a PR firm in China?Can they do it themselves? Is this about saving time building the connections with local websites and magazines?Should you do your PR in English, Chinese? How about both languages on the same channel? How do you do PR work, in a country where journalism is ‘censored’? Are there best practices for companies on what NOT to do when doing PR in China? Example Case studiesDo you change your PR message in the middle of a campaign?What’s the best way to reach you? Episode Mentions:MIke's new book - China Startup - Experience and Insights. A Foreigner Starting a Chinese Tech StartupShlomo’s book on LeanPub - Your Way! 6 weeks for a startup plan GMIC - Global mobile internet conferenceMegi - cloud accounting solution in ChinaQualcomm to Pay $975 Million Antitrust Fine to China Microsoft is making a custom version of Windows 10 just for ChinaChina joyWechat Sina blogsSimon's company - Influence Matters Simon's contact details - Linkedin , Simon@inmatt.comDownload and SubscribeDownload this episode: right-click on this link and choose "save as"Subscribe to China Business Cast on iTunesOr check out the full list on subscription options Periscope Live broadcasting of the recordings follow @StartupNoodle (open link on mobile)

China Business Cast
Ep. 27. Andy Tian Co-Founder and CEO at Asia Innovations-云智联,“碰碰”

China Business Cast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2015 41:55


  Episode Content:This episode like all others is broadcasted live on @Startup Noodle (open on your mobile device to subscribe) periscope channel. Andy, Looking at your linkedin profile, it seems you had a dream career path bringing Google into China as well as managing Zynga China a few years ago until you founded Pengpeng. Where you think were the most challenging roles, when leading your own startups or leading an international company in China? Which part of the work you like to most? Product? Growth hacking? development? What’s the best viral/growth hacking techniques that work today in china? What do you think are the best ways promoting apps these days in China?where do you see still opportunities in gaming in China? Any future trends you see? What’s the future for foreign company or app developers coming to China? Can they compete in this complex market? Any advantages for foreign internet companies in China? How about finding a local partner in the Chinese market, what are some strategies for a Western tech company?Do you have idea what’s going on with Google coming back to China? rumors are all around…How can people get in touch with you? Episode Mentions:Andy Tian on Linkedin , emailAndy's current startup - PengPengAndy on Tech in Asia about Zynga ChinaGet involved w/ our new mastermind!Want to sponsor? email shlomo@ or mike@ chinabusinesscast.com and we'll send some info!Global From Asia Podcast - about Hong Kong international businessDownload and SubscribeDownload this episode: right click on this link and choose "save as"Subscribe to China Business Cast on iTunesOr check out the full list on subscription options Periscope Live broadcasting of the recordings follow @StartupNoodle (open link on mobile)

Round Table 圆桌议事
家暴受害者为何选择沉默?

Round Table 圆桌议事

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 29, 2015 8:16


It’s probably not a surprise to Chinese people that most victims of domestic violence here in China remain silent. A report released by the United Nations states that over 90% of Chinese women who suffered from domestic violence chose not to report. 联合国最近的一份调查显示,在中国超过九成的遭受家暴的女性都对自己的经历难以启齿。这种集体性的沉默既可以归结于中国社会文化的压制,也源于法律的缺失。Is domestic violence a big problem here in China? Can the victims get help easily if they do report?

U.S. Economy
U.S. Overview- Uncertainty Abounds

U.S. Economy

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2014 60:44


The U.S. economy has shown mildly positive signs this year - jobs continue to be added, the housing market seems to be stabilizing if not improving, and manufacturing has come back - but hopes for a vigorous rebound from the Great Recession have been dashed, or at least deferred. With employment growth waning and fissures in public budgets widening, economic anxieties are adding fuel to the concerns of both Main Street and Wall Street. It's not certain that the presidential election will resolve many of the issues on the table, such as how Washington can strike a deal to avoid the dreaded "fiscal cliff." The panel will consider this and other issues perplexing U.S. business and political leaders, including: Can the U.S. prosper amid the euro zone crisis and slowdown in China? Can corporate profits grow after years of wringing out costs? Does the Federal Reserve have a role to play in the next phase of the recovery?