Podcast appearances and mentions of winton capital

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

Jerry Parker needs no introduction. He's been running a successful trend following firm, Chesapeake Capital, since the 1980's.   Today, we talk about a number of different things including: 1) Winton Capital "stepping away" from trend following 2) Morningstar's study on fund manager performance 3) The Dr. Copper myth 4) Earnings growth vs. stock market returns   We plan on having these discussions every so often when we come across articles we like and when important market events occur.

David Ricardo would be just as successful today trading as he was trading 100’s of years ago. He understood, from a trend following perspective, that there is no value in prediction. When trading, you take an entry signal, get into the market, and ride the trend. It is impossible to know with certainty where the market will go, so you trade with the market rather than against it. Some think they have a grasp on bitcoin, but there is no way to understand the “why” behind it or any other market. You don’t have to be an expert to trade bitcoin, gold, coffee, or cocoa – just have rules in place and start trading. Small losses will happen but they are balanced: home runs – small losses = extreme gains. Do the homework, put rules together and go. Still uneasy about diving into trend following? Check out performance from trend following traders such as Dunn Capital and Winton Capital. Much can be learned from information in public trend following track records. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Time series momentum Cross sectional momentum Definition of managed futures Diversification Trend following diversification Drawdowns

  “Always be paranoid about [your strategies], and always be paranoid about every part of it." (Tweet) Top Traders is bringing you Top Traders Round Table, a series of conversations with industry leaders on the subject of Managed Futures. On this special episode, my guests are the founders of AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital. We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about how they developed their investing strategies, some of the most surprising decisions they ever made, and what kind of legacy they would like to leave behind. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: What Mike, David & Marty had to un-learn in order to improve their strategies Why David believes education can crush creativity How some “new” optimization methods hurts investors What David and Marty least like about their current strategies What they plan on doing when they no longer run their firms How David approaches succession planning The most important investment principles the guests would leave for their children Why only a small amount of investors still keep managed futures as a core allocation The most important decisions they ever made Which decisions had the most surprising results If the media will ever understand what managed futures actually are The legacy that AHL left in the world of investing This episode was sponsored by CME Group: Connect with our guests:   Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The Melomaniacs Learn more about David Harding and Winton Group Learn more about Marty Lueck and Aspect Capital “The reason the systematic trading business is successful is not just because of the founder, it’s the ability of the founder to organize a business that has a way of doing things that is indeed systematic." - (Tweet)

  “That’s the challenge you face in systematic trading: it’s not to be really, really good, it’s not to be useful." (Tweet) Top Traders is bringing you Top Traders Round Table, a series of conversations with industry leaders on the subject of Managed Futures. On this special episode, my guests are the founders of AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital. We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about what AHL's founders did after they created the company, what they've learned along the way about business and life, and how they view the current market climates. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: The future of a science-driven trading approach What David’s vision was when he started Winton Capital The beginnings of Aspect Capital Why Winton moved away from traditional trend following The challenges that equities and managed futures present for investors Why David chose to lower volatility of his strategy Michael’s experience with deep value investing When it’s time to ask “do you want to be happy or rich?” What caused Michael to leave the industry How they have evolve using different data sources and new markets The danger of “hindsight bias” What disadvantages machine learning have presented Why Marty views asset allocation as part of a trend following model How they see our current financial climate This episode was sponsored by CME Group: Connect with our guests:   Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The Melomaniacs Learn more about David Harding and Winton Group Learn more about Marty Lueck and Aspect Capital “Markets are neural networks, they are hundreds of thousands of people motivated to make money." - (Tweet)

  "I do remember us having conversations about building something that would outlast us, but I don’t think we thought too hard about whether it would or not." (Tweet) Top Traders is bringing you Top Traders Round Table, a series of conversations with industry leaders on the subject of Managed Futures. On this special episode, my guests are the founders of AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital. We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about AHL's beginnings, the revolutionary discoveries that AHL made, how MAN Group became the owner of AHL, as well as all the great things that Michael, David and Marty went on to create. Subscribe on: In This Episode, You'll Learn: How AHL got it’s start Why Michael’s father was instrumental in the beginning of AHL What struck David when testing their early algorithms Why their “empiricist” outlook gave them an early advantage How technology’s limits pushed their ideas The breakthroughs of AHL’s early research and how it still applies today Why being a consultant gave AHL deep insight into trading the markets The crucial role the early clients had in AHL’s development The power of finding the right people to work with Why Michael preferred working with “unformed” employees How the original deal between MAN and MINT influenced AHL What the larger financial community initially thought about AHL How AHL brought in investors in those early days This episode was sponsored by CME Group: Connect with our guests:   Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The Melomaniacs Learn more about David Harding and Winton Group Learn more about Marty Lueck and Aspect Capital "At the beginnings of what we did, we didn’t make money as investment managers at all, we made money as consultants." - (Tweet)

Michael Covel starts today’s podcast by talking about “robot traders” and major misconceptions. Covel discusses machine learning v. automation and moves into a series of clips that outline trend following philosophy. First, Covel plays a clip from Benoit Mandelbrot to illustrate problems with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Next, Covel plays two clips from Jim Simons, CEO of Renaissance Technologies, about his experiences as a new trader and on 'luck' (Simons is not a fan of fundamental trading). Building on Jim Simons comes a clip from David Harding of Winton Capital, a multi-billion dollar fund with trend following models at the core. Harding talks about his start, models, math, probabilities, and betting. Next, Covel plays a clip from Salem Abraham. Abraham talks about the markets he trades, and why it doesn’t really make a difference where the money comes from. Covel adds clips from Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, the Co-Founder, Chairman & Chief Scientist of CFM. Covel also plays clips from Svante Bergstrom, Ewan Kirk and trend trading legends William Eckhardt and Ed Seykota. These all tie together to attempt to give a trend trading/quant philosophical stance--the attitude and benefits. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

My guest today is Gerd Gigerenzer, the director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, and is a former professor of psychology at the University at Chicago. Gerd is also the director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy (read David Harding the head of trend following firm Winton Capital). The topic is heuristics. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Uncertainty Comparing decisions to baseball (gaze heuristic) Complex problems and simple solutions Using price action as a decision making cue Unconscious heuristics The art of knowing what one doesn't have to know The less is more effect The miracle on the Hudson River a few years ago as a case in point illustrating heuristics The idea of an adaptive toolbox The element of surprise in Gigerenzer's work The distinction between risk and uncertainty Intuition vs. rationality Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Today, Michael Covel speaks with Gerd Gigerenzer. Gigerenzer is the director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, and is a former professor of psychology at the University at Chicago. Gerd is also the director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy (read David Harding the head of trend following firm Winton Capital). Covel speaks with Gigerenzer about heuristics. For those of you that trade; for those of you that invest; and for those of you that just want to navigate risk and certainty in your life, this conversation is mission critical. His work is the philosophical foundation of trend following success, for starters. Covel and Gigerenzer discuss uncertainty; comparing decisions to baseball (gaze heuristic); complex problems and simple solutions; using price action as a decision making cue; unconscious heuristics; the art of knowing what one doesn’t have to know; the less is more effect; the miracle on the Hudson River a few years ago as a case in point illustrating heuristics; the idea of an adaptive toolbox; the element of surprise in Gigerenzer’s work; the distinction between risk and uncertainty; intuition vs. rationality. This type of understanding is ultimately far more important than any trading system breakdowns. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Michael Covel sets the tone for today's propaganda-themed show with two clips: A Rod Serling monologue from "The Twilight Zone" and the infamous Apple "1984" commercial. Covel goes on to discuss an article about David Harding of Winton Capital--a trader who has become one of the major faces in trend following trading due to his track record in the last decade. The article notes Harding's -3.5% 2012, calls his success a "blip", and generally presents criticism without any foundational understanding of Harding's techniques. Covel tears the article apart point-by-point. It's a perfect representation of how the media misrepresents the facts. Covel's isn't motivated to critique this particular article because he's a David Harding fanboy--rather, his goal is to point out the intellectual dishonesty put on display so often in the media. Covel questions the motives of the writers; dispels the myth that massive computational power is needed to be a trend following trader; and questions how one 3.5% down year can possibly be considered a "plunge" or "blip" in the larger context of Harding's track record. The authors state that Harding was "blindsided by market uncertainty", but trend following is built on accepting the fact that a black swan can appear in at any moment--a fundamental concept that the authors clearly don't understand. Next, Covel discusses Dave Ramsey and Ric Edelman; radio hosts who both are convinced that you can't make money trading. So, they convince you to buy and hold mutual funds (perhaps some of which they've helped create) and leave you hoping for the best. Covel takes both of them on and dispels their claims that no one in the Forbes 400 makes their money trading. So, why do Ramsey and Edelman persist in putting out such information? Because they have something to sell. Covel has something to sell too, but he gives both sides of the story. He lays out the buy and hold strategies and compares them to systematic trend following. It's just clear who the winner is when you see the whole picture. Ramsey and Edelman neglect to talk about trading successfully; it's all part of the propaganda machine. Think critically. Don't be a sheep. If you want to obtain something more than average, you've got to keep your eyes wide open and look for the propaganda. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

My guest today is Jonathan Davis, one of the UK's leading writers on investing. Davis has written 3 books, is a regular writer for the Financial Times, and is the director for three investment companies. Davis has been following the markets for over thirty years, first as a journalist, and has had quite a history. He was fortunate enough to spend some time at MIT studying and writing a thesis about Warren Buffet, whom he met on several occasions. The topic is his book Professional Investor Rules: Top Investors Reveal the Secrets of Their Success. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: What's going on in Europe, where the socioeconomics might be headed, how the history of Europe plays into the problem, and how Davis sees it playing out The importance of performance data How "the recent past is out to get you" How volatility is not something the average investor instinctively understands Investing in Asian markets The efficient market theory The idea of "the hedgehog" (people who only really know one thing) and "the fox" (people who know many things, and are constantly looking for more) in the context of investing, and how the foxes can allow themselves to be adaptable and flexible to all sorts of market conditions over time His take on David Harding of Winton Capital, and his view of Marc Faber Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Michael Covel talks to Jonathan Davis, one of the UK's leading writers on investing. Davis has written 3 books, is a regular writer for the Financial Times, and is the director for three investment companies. Covel and Davis talk about Davis' new book "Professional Investor Rules" which has a bit of a fundamental flavor to it. Hardcore trend followers need not get bent out of shape, however; Davis and Covel's conversation crosses strategy lines and gets to the heart of some important investing and economic topics. Davis has been following the markets for over thirty years, first as a journalist, and has had quite a history. He was fortunate enough to spend some time at MIT studying and writing a thesis about Warren Buffet, whom he met on several occasions. His new book looks into the lists of rules that professional investors had made for themselves over the years, both for education and entertainment purposes. Covel and Davis talk about what's going on in Europe, where the socioeconomics might be headed, how the history of Europe plays into the problem, and how Davis sees it playing out; the importance of performance data; how "the recent past is out to get you"; how volatility is not something the average investor instinctively understands; investing in Asian markets; the efficient market theory; the idea of "the hedgehog" (people who only really know one thing) and "the fox" (people who know many things, and are constantly looking for more) in the context of investing, and how the foxes can allow themselves to be adaptable and flexible to all sorts of market conditions over time. Davis also shares his take on David Harding of Winton Capital, and his view of Marc Faber.

Michael Covel comments on four CNBC interview clips from legendary trend following trader David Harding of Winton Capital. Covel goes through the interviews with Erin Burnett, then of CNBC, Joe Kernen, and Fast Money. Covel comments as the anchors ask question after question that show they don't yet understand the basic concepts behind Harding's success. They beg for stock tips, ask predictive political questions, idiotically compare Harding's approach to Long Term Capital Management, and otherwise not get the big idea. Covel's analysis shows that reading teleprompters doesn't necessarily imply one has insight. It's an educational analysis to see how David Harding thinks and talks about trend following trading and to watch how the media system doesn't get it. Those lessons alone are worth the price in gold.