Top Traders Unplugged

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Top Traders Unplugged is created for you, the investor, trader or research analyst. If you are looking to take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen delivers the information you just don’t want to miss. Just like the Market Wizard books brought some…

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen


    • Jan 16, 2022 LATEST EPISODE
    • weekdays NEW EPISODES
    • 48m AVG DURATION
    • 400 EPISODES

    Listeners of Top Traders Unplugged that love the show mention: trend following, moritz, ttu, trend follower, top traders, hedge fund, systematic trading, retail investor, trendfollowing, neils, successful traders, world of investing, unplugged, quantitative, trading podcast, futures, funds, managers, jerry, woody.



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    Latest episodes from Top Traders Unplugged

    SI175: A Winning Approach to Risk ft. Rob Carver

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2022 86:06

    Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the different ways that Trend Following is perceived by investors, the optimum amount of positions to trade at once, rating the riskiness of various investment strategies, Trend Following on the VIX, suitable risk amounts per market, what to do with the free cash in your futures account, if Trend Followers pyramid positions, trading CFDs and dealing with transaction costs, and the best lookback period when measuring correlations. In this episode, we discuss: The perception of Trend Following among various types of investors How many positions to trade at once The ‘riskiness' of various investment strategies Combining Trend Following and Volatility strategies Risk-per-futures contract How much cash to keep on the sidelines and what to do with it Pyramiding positions CFD trading and navigating commissions Measuring correlations effectively Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    VOL 07: Participate & Protect ft. Dave Dredge

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2022 66:41

    Hari Krishnan is joined today by Dave Dredge, to discuss how long-volatility strategies can improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the concept of ‘participate and protect', the importance of understanding why compounding is the ultimate goal, the ‘always good weather' portfolio, trading Bitcoin volatility, being a ‘value buyer' of volatility, mechanisms for taking profits, and how to size portfolio allocations properly. In this episode, we discuss: How to improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio Dave's concept of ‘participate and protect' The importance of compounding Dave's ‘always good weather' portfolio Long-volatility Bitcoin strategies Value investing in the volatility space Methods for taking profits Sizing portfolio allocations Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Hari on https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 (Twitter). Follow Dave on https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-dredge-9493ba1b/ (LinkedIn). IT's TRUE

    SI174: The Future of Trend Following ft Alan Dunne

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 10, 2022 66:34

    Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss what the future could look like without central bank liquidity being pumped into the markets, macro versus quantitative trading approaches, how to avoid crowded strategies, some post analysis of a trend following research paper, whether CTAs are being gamed by other participants, analysing the various methods of price trend measurements, what may have caused a more difficult trading environment for Trend Following strategies in the 2010s, and the economic factors that lead to great periods for Trend Following. In this episode, we discuss: What markets could look like without Federal Reserve liquidity injections Macro versus quantitative approaches Avoiding crowded strategies What it was like to trade through 2018 How market participants may try to game Trend Followers Measuring the strength of price trends Reviewing the performance of Trend Following during the 2010s Which economic factors could drive strong Trend Following performance Check out our series on Volatility https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/podcasts/volatility/ (here), and our Global Macro series https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/ (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here). IT's TRUE

    VOL 06: Finding True Value in the World of Volatility ft. Benn Eifert

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 5, 2022 68:52

    On today's episode, Hari Krishnan is joined today by Benn Eifert, to discuss running a volatility fund, the benefits that Benn gets from using Twitter, how to effectively serve clients as a volatility trader, the drawbacks of hedging via ETFs, monitoring market flows, the popularity of short-dated options, implied volatility versus realised volatility, how correlations change over time, balancing family-life with managing a fund, and the new normalisation of working from home. In this episode, we discuss: A behind the scenes look at running a volatility fund How to use Twitter as an investor Bringing value to clients as a volatility trader Hedging via ETFs Market flows Options Implied volatility Finding a good work & life balance Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT's TRUE

    SI173: ‘Trend Following + Nothing' Part Two ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 2, 2022 93:01

    Today we continue our special Part 2 end-of-year episode featuring all co-hosts of the show, together at the same time, to discuss why you should be invested in numerous different markets, why more Trend Following firms should be trading single stocks, the optimum amount of systems to run at the same time, whether diversifying across markets or diversifying across systems is more important, some thoughts on positive skew, and defining outliers. We also review how 2021 went for each us, including our best and worst markets to trade, the lessons we learned, and the biggest surprises. In this episode, we discuss: The reasons for trading different markets Why Trend Following firms should trade single stocks The optimum amount of systems to run at the same time Diversification across markets versus across systems Skewness How to define outliers Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://twitter.com/rjparkerjr09 (Twitter). Follow Moritz on https://twitter.com/moritzseibert (Twitter). Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter). Follow Rich on https://twitter.com/RichB118 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    TTU119: The Secret to becoming Richer, Wiser, Happier ft. William Green

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 29, 2021 103:28

    “Deferred gratification must be a master principle. In a world where people are focused on short-term pleasures, it becomes an enormous competitive advantage if you can shift to deferred gratification.”What if there was one or two things that, above all, the best investors of all time have in common? Would you be interested to know what this is? Our special guest today, William Green, has written about this in his new book, called ‘Richer, Wiser, Happier', where he draws upon his past interviews with over forty of the most successful investors of all time, to find out some of the ingredients that made them stand out. These elite group include Sir John Templeton, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Jack Bogle, Ed Thorp, and Joel Greenblatt. Join us as we uncover what it takes to be a truly successful investor, the benefits of deferred gratification, why being humble can lead to solid long-term returns, and the beauty of combining ‘man and machine' to create a profitable, systematic approach to the markets. Thank you for listening and please welcome to the show, our guest, William Green. In This Episode, You'll Learn: The connection between philosophy and investing Richard's new book, ‘Richer, Wiser, Happier' The secrets behind the successful business model of Costco and Amazon The benefits of deferred gratification “I'm writing about the people who I think are operating on many different levels. They've got the external aspects of investing down, they're thinking intelligently about how to make money, but they also are thinking very deeply about this inner game of what constitutes an actually successful and abundant life.”Why Ray Dalio likes to combine ‘man & machine' and use systematic approaches Why being humble can lead to great long-term returns How to invest for the long-term, in a short-term world The ingredients that made some of the most famous investors of all-time so reputable Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow William on https://twitter.com/williamgreen72 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI172: ‘Trend Following + Nothing' Part One ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark, & Rich

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 25, 2021 88:12

    We have a special end-of-year episode for you today, featuring all of us together for the first same time, to discuss why we are so passionate about Trend Following, the case for being a Trend Following purist, how to stay perfectly diversified, the art & perils of hunting outliers, the outlook for Trend Following performance, when and how to manually override a trading system, how to stay prepared for unexpected volatility events, and how to know if adjustments to a trading system are going to result in improved performance. In this episode, we discuss: Some of the reasons for being a systematic investor The case for Trend Following as the only strategy in your portfolio Tips for effective diversification Why you should be Hunting Outliers How Trend Following performance might look like in the future If and when you should override your trading rules Staying ready for unexpected shocks in the markets Gauging the effectiveness of adjustments to a system Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://twitter.com/rjparkerjr09 (Twitter). Follow Moritz on https://twitter.com/moritzseibert (Twitter). Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter). Follow Rich on https://twitter.com/RichB118 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    TTU118: TRILLIONS...The Passive Revolution ft. Robin Wigglesworth

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2021 97:30

    “The mutual fund is coming up to a 100 years old, if you count the first US mutual fund, but in the past 50 years it's been all about the index fund. So the reason why I started covering it so much at the FT is because I felt it was under-covered in comparison to some of the more titanic hedge fund managers.”Passive & quantitative investing has grown exponentially over the years and is now responsible for trillions of dollars of investors' capital.  How has this affected the world of active money-management, and what does the rise of passive investing mean for the investment world overall? Well, it turns out that renown Financial Times Global Finance correspondent, Robin Wigglesworth, has a great new book out about passive investing called ‘Trillions', and I couldn't resist the temptation to invite him on to the show to talk about the book, and other subjects related to investing and trading. Enjoy this conversation as we cover how the financial crisis of 2008 affected investors' relationship to the markets, the innovators behind the rise of passive investing, Tesla's entry into the S&P 500, and Robin's thoughts on Trend Following strategies. Thank you for listening and please welcome to the show, our guest, Robin Wigglesworth. In This Episode, You'll Learn: How journalism and financial media has changed in the last 15 years Why the rise of passive investing plays such an important part of the history of finance The big players behind the rise of passive investing The first index fund The rise of BlackRock “Studies have shown that the index inclusion affects, which is the uplift that you get from being in a major index like the S&P 500, has been fading quite dramatically for some time and basically is non-existent.”The merits of passive and active investing How investors might react to a prolonged bear market The benefits of quantitative investing strategies Why systematic investing is often criticised so heavily Some of Robins' thoughts on Trend Following Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Robin on https://www.twitter.com/@RobinWigg (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI171: Machine Learning Trading Strategies ft. Hari Krishnan

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2021 69:50

    Today we're joined by special guest, Hari Krishnan, to discuss the advantages and drawbacks of machine learning-based trading strategies, successful funds that utilizes machine learning investment techniques, defining machine learning and comparing it with artificial intelligence, how Trend Following can best integrated with machine learning, the history of machine learning in the investment world, and we also answer some of your questions, such as how to select signals for a smaller trading account. In this episode, we discuss: The reasons for and against machine learning trading strategies If any funds have successfully implemented machine learning What defines machine learning The history behind machine learning-based trading styles How to manage smaller trading accounts, when it comes to signal selection How to time the entry into trend following funds If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail (here). Check out our series on Volatility https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/podcasts/volatility/ (here), and our Global Macro series https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/ (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here). IT's TRUE

    SI170: 'Don't Try This At Home' ft Rob Carver

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2021 83:19

    We're joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how to approach position-sizing and risk-per-trade, mean reversion trading strategies, how to invest in globally diversified systematic Trend Following CTAs, ‘buying the dip' in the S&P 500, static and dynamic optimisation when trading smaller accounts, and the inclusion of more obscure markets into a Trend Following system. In this episode, we discuss: How to effectively approach position-sizing Some methods for investing in Trend Following CTAs If 'buying the dip' in the S&P 500 is a good strategy Portfolio optimisation Trading lesser-known markets Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    TTU117: Strategic Risk Management ft. Cam Harvey & Rob Carver

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2021 77:54

    "When the market turns and goes negative, strategies like Trend Following tend to do really well. They provide that hedge. So it's completely inappropriate to compare Trend Following to a long equity portfolio, because Trend Following has different properties - it has hedging properties." - Cam HarveyHow should you protect your portfolio against large losses, but without giving up its upside potential? To answer this question, and many more, I invited back professor of finance at Duke University, Campbell Harvey to the show. I also thought it would be fitting if Rob Carver, could also join us, considering Rob and Cam used to work together at Man AHL. Enjoy the show as we discuss how to navigate a crisis in the markets, and what to expect in terms of the global outlook for investing. Thank you for listening and please welcome to the show, our guest, Campbell Harvey. In This Episode, You'll Learn: How to manage a portfolio through a crisis The motivation behind writing his new book Various methods of portfolio protection Diversification within Trend Following systems Volatility targeting and why it can be a powerful tool “When you have a portfolio of different assets, the noise cancels out, you reduce the volatility, and that's good for you.” - Cam HarveyThe journey of volatility going from a measure to an input Drawdowns as an important metric to monitor Timing portfolio rebalances effectively The 60 / 40 portfolio, diversification, and inflation Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Cam on https://twitter.com/camharvey (Twitter) and Rob on Twitter. IT's TRUE

    SI169: Buying the Dip ft. Richard Brennan

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2021 70:15

    Richard Brennan returns today to discuss the misconception of volatility as risk, thoughts on the various measures of risk, drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip' in the Trend Following strategies, how Richard thinks about risk, the relationship between volatility and risk, and the differences between convergent and divergent traders. In this episode, we discuss: Why volatility might not always mean that a model is risky The best way to measure true risk How to 'buy the dip' What Richard thinks about risk The relationship between volatility and risk Convergent versus divergent trading Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Richard on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    TTU116: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio ft. Steve Foerster

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2021 66:57

    'When you look into history, so-called derivative investment products that you think of as being recent, actually go back to 2400 BCE, in various forms. Call options go back to 600 BCE at least. In the 18th century BCE there were personal loans, as well as a liquid secondary market for these promissory notes. So what we think of as new inventions are actually very old.' - Steve FoersterIf we could gather all of the famous investing pioneers from world history into one room and ask them to build the perfect portfolio, what would it look like?  Well Steve Foerster and his co-author (and previous guest on the show) Andrew Lo, set out to do just that, with their new book called 'In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio'. I thought I'd invite Steve onto the show to discuss his new book, go through some of the 'golden threads' of investing that he came across, his journey in the world of finance, and of course, get his opinion on how close Trend Following is to 'the Perfect Portfolio'. Thank you for listening and please welcome to the show, our guest, Steve Foerster. In This Episode, You'll Learn: Steve's journey to becoming a Professor of Finance and how he ended up co-authoring a book with Professor Andrew Lo Some of the concepts from the legendary financial experts they interviewed for the book How closely linked the academic world of finance really is About some of the most important findings in investment research over the decades About the "untold" story of an early 20th-century mathematician, Louis Bachelier Harry Markowitz' story What Eugene Fama's Perfect Portfolio looks like About William Sharpe and his now famous 'Sharpe Ratio' ‘The missing link was that correlations are critical as well. In fact, as we know, the more securities that you put into a portfolio, it's those correlations or that co-variant component that really dominates.' - Steve FoersterHow the phrase 'beta' came about How computers enabled researchers to access deeper insights into the world of investing About the debate between active and passive investing Whether volatility should still be considered as a measure of risk About the progression of volatility data into today's investment models About the story of Eugene Fama How Steve views the question of 'what is the perfect portfolio?' Whether Steve considers Trend Following investing as, essentially, a perfect portfolio Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT's TRUE

    SI168: The Trading Secrets of Trend Followers ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2021 74:24

    Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how markets will react to the likely upcoming tapering policies of central banks around the world, how Trend Followers overcome uncertainty, the reasons for and against overriding trading models, the historically optimum balance between bonds, stocks, and Trend Following, how trading non-correlated assets usually results in profitable long-term performance, and why longer-term trading systems tend to achieve the highest percentage of winning trades. In this episode, we discuss: Overcoming the uncertainty in markets When to override your system, if ever Balancing between difference asset classes The need to trade non-correlated assets Why longer-term systems achieve higher win percentages Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    VOL005: Maintaining Liquidity & Cash Efficiency ft. Zed Francis

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 24, 2021 69:05

    Jason Buck is joined today by Zed Francis to discuss the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, achieving a negative a correlation to equities during market downturns, what Zed calls the ‘3 trading levers', profiting from institutional volatility players, problems with some long-volatility strategies, when a discretionary approach is needed, how to adjust a portfolio if volatility is persisting, some thoughts on the VIX ETF, helping clients to achieve capital efficient accounts, maintaining liquidity for rebalancing during a selloff, and the deeper insight into the global macro landscape that being a volatility expert gives you. In this episode, we discuss: The benefits of volatility strategies to a portfolio How to profit from large stock market selloffs Some of Zed Francis's unique approaches to volatility trading Profiting from institutional volatility traders When to apply a discretionary approach The VIX ETF Helping clients to be cash efficient in their portfolios The need for liquidity during large market moves Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT's TRUE

    SI167: The Road to Profits is Bumpy ft Jerry Parker

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2021 63:49

    Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss trading single stocks while maintaining a systematic approach, the benefits of trading a fixed universe of assets, how investors naturally gravitate toward strategies with lesser returns & more risk, why you need volatility in order to gain maximum returns, what to do with dividends as a Trend Follower, and diversifying Trend Following models versus diversifying look-back periods. In this episode, we discuss: A systematic approach to trading single stocks Why you should trade a fixed universe of assets Why the best thing to do is often the hardest thing to do as investors Why volatility is our friend How to manage dividends as a Trend Following trader The best methods of diversification Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on Twitter. IT's TRUE

    VOL004: Profiting from Short-Term Volatility ft. Bastian Bolesta

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 18, 2021 74:33

    Special guest, Bastian Bolesta, joins Jason Buck today to discuss why volatility strategies should be added to our portfolios, how to keep improving as a trader while not over-optimising your systems, how recent large equity selloffs have affected Bastian's approach to the markets, the average duration of his long volatility trades, how to weight recent data versus long-term data, trading VIX contracts intra-day, shorter-term Trend Following, momentum trading, mean-reversion strategies, and the cash efficiency of intraday models. In this episode, we discuss: Why we should be invested in volatility strategies Improving over time but not over-tinkering How much markets may have changed in recent years The average duration of volatility trades Recent data versus long-term data Shorter-term Trend Following The benefits of cash-efficiency within intraday models Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT's TRUE

    SI166: Riding the Waves of Volatility ft. Hari Krishnan

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 14, 2021 68:24

    We're joined by Hari Krishnan today, to discuss the ways in which Volatility strategies can complement Trend Following as a source of portfolio protection, how to manage expectations of investors, some experiences and thoughts from the large volatility events of 2018 and 2020, how to best protect yourself from large market selloffs, how to allocate between Trend Following and Volatility across different timeframes, and the possible effects of sustained inflation may have on volatility strategies. In this episode, we discuss: Complementing Trend Following portfolios with Volatility strategies Maintaining composure during different market environments The sharp selloffs of 2018 and 2020 Sound approaches for re-allocating money at appropriate times The resilience of Trend Following Volatility strategies during long periods of sustained inflation If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail (here). Check out our series on Volatility https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/podcasts/volatility/ (here), and our Global Macro series https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/ (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here). IT's TRUE

    VOL003: The Evolution of the VIX ft. Stefan Wintner

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2021 74:48

    In today's episode, Jason Buck is joined by Stefan Wintner of https://dunncapital.com/ (DUNN Capital), to discuss volatility as an asset class, the evolution of the VIX from its inception until now, some of the mechanics behind the VIX, the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500, some thoughts on ‘volatility relative-value' trading, the reliability of the VVIX, building and running models during different market environments, thoughts on kurtosis and skew, and volatility as a necessary component for a large Trend Following firm.  In this episode, we discuss: Volatility as an asset class of its own The journey of the VIX from its early days until now Analysing the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500 What's known as volatility relative-value trading The usefulness of the VVIX Operating models during different market and economic environments Kurtosis and skew The need for Volatility strategies as part of a diversified investment portfolio Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT's TRUE

    SI165: Responsible Investing as a Trend Follower ft Rob Carver

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 7, 2021 85:38

    Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the perception of cryptocurrencies since the new Bitcoin futures ETF was launched, scaling into and out of positions, the possibility of a synthetic Bitcoin supply resulting from the new futures ETF, how to approach climate change and ESG investing as a Trend Follower, ideas for selecting which markets to trade, the benefits and drawbacks of trading single stocks, and how to embrace a creative mindset. In this episode, we discuss: The new credibility of cryptocurrencies Scaling into positions using various methods ESG investing as a Trend Following investor How to select the optimum markets to trade Trading single stocks Embracing creativity as a systematic investor Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    VOL002: Past, Present, & Future Volatility ft. Noel Smith

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 2, 2021 73:37

    Today Jason Buck is joined by Noel Smith in the second of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of ensemble investing, the predictability of market volatility, how certain market environments fool investors into thinking they are better than they really are, allocating between different strategies during different market environments, why nothing beats having ‘skin in the game', balancing judgement calls versus algorithmic calls, pairs-trading VIX & bonds, determining when an asset is cheap or overpriced,  and some thoughts on what might happen if markets enter a ‘stagflationary' environment. In this episode, we discuss: Ensemble investing and its benefits Whether market volatility can be predicted ahead of time The ways in which the markets can catch investors off-guard ‘Dialling' into and out of strategies How Noel's experience in prop trading and pit trading has helped him today Finding the balance between judgement calls and algorithmic signals Noel's VIX and bonds pairs trade Assessing the current real value of an asset How to approach investing during a ‘stagflationary' environment Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jason on https://twitter.com/jasonmutiny (Twitter). Follow Noel on https://twitter.com/jasonmutiny (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/noel-smith-chicago/ (LinkedIn), and via his https://www.convexam.com/ (website). IT's TRUE 

    SI164: Compounding - The 8th Wonder of the World ft Richard Brennan

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 31, 2021 66:25

    This week, Richard Brennan joins us on the show to discuss how people can benefit from the effects of compounding while others end up a paying a price for it. We also cover some thoughts on ‘path dependency,' why those invested in stocks should diversify using Trend Following strategies, why stable returns can only be correctly judged over long time periods, how to analyse fund performance without being influenced by the effects of compounding, some thoughts on what is known as ‘geometric returns', and we explain the term ‘ergodicity'. In this episode, we discuss: How to stay on the right side of the effects of compounding How many strategies can be limited by the make-up of their previous versions The profitable & negative correlation of Trend Following to equities when stocks are falling The need to zoom-out when judging performance The terms 'ergodicity' and 'path dependency' Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Richard on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    VOL001: The New Nature of Stock Market Movements ft Hari Krishnan

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2021 72:07

    Today Jason Buck is joined by Hari Krishnan in the first of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, why it can pay to avoid hedging when the crowd is already doing so, explaining the 'Put slingshot', how markets are different today from decades ago, protection against tail-risk, the psychology behind large markets sell-offs, and some thoughts on the effects of leverage on the markets. In this episode, we discuss: The benefits of tail-risk hedges / adding volatility hedges to your portfolio The importance of avoiding group think (in hedging) Some thoughts on what is known as the ‘Put slingshot' The new nature of stock market movements The repricing of risk during fast downturns Tail-risk protection versus Trend Following How tail-risk protection can complement an existing allocation to Trend Following Some of the psychology and mechanisms behind large and sharp market moves How positioning and leverage end up creating challenging markets to trade in Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jason on https://twitter.com/jasonmutiny (Twitter). Follow Hari on https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI163: The Importance of Investment Narratives ft Mark Rzepczynski

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 23, 2021 79:13

    This week, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won't be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies. In this episode, we discuss: The future of Bitcoin How money managers can explain their approaches simply to clients Long, successful, but bumpy track records versus recent strong performers Trend Following's incredible success over 6 decades The private equity world compared with systematic investing Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI162: Discussing The New Bitcoin Futures ETF ft Moritz Seibert

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2021 78:16

    We're joined today by Moritz Seibert to answer some of the hardest questions in the Turtle Trader entrance exam, as well as discuss the new Bitcoin futures ETF, the drive towards ESG investments and how this affects global supply chains, the years' top performers so far in our Trend Following systems, whether we can predict if a winning streak is about to end, why Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and whether crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term strategies. In this episode, we discuss: The hardest questions in the Turtle Trading entrance exam The SECs' approval of the first-ever Bitcoin futures ETF How the move toward sustainable investments is affecting current supply chains Our best performing assets of the year so far How Bitcoin compares to Gold and if this is a fair comparison Which timeframe of Trend Following is best suited for crypto Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://twitter.com/moritzseibert (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI161: Retaking the Turtle Trader Entrance Exam ft Jerry Parker

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 9, 2021 61:47

    Jerry Parker joins us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis's famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers chosen today. We've posted the questions in the timestamps below, so feel free to take the test and compare your answers to Jerry's. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). In this episode, we discuss: Favouring long or short positions How you can go broke taking small profits Reasons to ‘fade the fundamentals' The importance of down-time and vacations Whether we can rely on opinions of the crowd System diversification Why you should trade small The questions that Jerry would add to the Turtle Trader test today Avoiding trades due to gaps in price Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://twitter.com/RJParkerJr09 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI160: Long-Term Performance vs Short-Term Hot Streaks ft Rob Carver

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2021 64:29

    Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling & its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules. In this episode, we discuss: Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recently How to gauge a system's long-term effectiveness Spread betting in the UK as an alternative to futures How to raise AUM when starting a new firm The US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin Adding parameters to a system Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI159: Embracing Uncertainty for Outsized Returns ft Richard Brennan

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2021 68:02

    Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness', how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty' in order to maximise returns. In this episode, we discuss: How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returns Compounding wealth as a systematic investor How Trend Following can profit during good times and bad times Data distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus on How investment terms can often create communication barriers Embracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Richard on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI158: The Secrets to Raising Capital ft Mark Rzepczynski

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2021 90:32

    Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect' among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player. You can find Mark's latest writings https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com (here). In this episode, we discuss: How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone How to spot future star performers in advance Unconventional approaches to market correlations The importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clients Why investors tend to copy their peers Whether fund size matters to capital allocators How strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI157: How to Make Money & Survive in the Markets ft Jerry Parker

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 13, 2021 65:59

    Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry's approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry's bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber attacks, and why past correlations can't always be relied upon. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). In this episode, we discuss: The case for longer-term strategies Not over-optimising strategies to adapt to every market condition How adding Trend Following to a portfolio increases its robustness Why Trend Following firms will be the number one choice among investors in the future How to prevent cyber attacks Why you can't always rely on past correlations to continue Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on Twitter. IT's TRUE

    SI156: The Case for Buying at All-Time Highs ft Moritz Seibert

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2021 64:56

    Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification', the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker's negative interest rates. In this episode, we discuss: Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods Some good measures for monitoring risk Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing Suitable backtesting software for retail investors How to approach negative interest rates with your broker Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://twitter.com/moritzseibert (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI155: How to Create the Perfect Backtest ft Richard Brennan

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 29, 2021 89:07

    This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing' a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers', what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop' to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creating a backtest, and whether some level of curve-fitting may actually be required for a good backtest. In this episode, we discuss: Which strategies would complement portfolio with 80% already allocated to Trend Following Why 'forward-testing' a system can be quite important before going live The art of finding and latching onto outlier performers Leverage, margin, & total portfolio risk-to-stop What information to look for in a backtest How to avoid 'curve-fitting' (and could some curve-fitting be beneficial?) Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rich on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI154: Defining 'Outliers' from a Trend Follower's Perspective ft Richard Brennan

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2021 65:09

    Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier' really means from a Trend Follower's perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity' when discussing Trend Following models. In this episode, we discuss: The increasing global risks that could cause large market selloffs How a Trend Following trader thinks about 'outliers' The role of currency pairs in a Trend Following system Diversification versus 'Di-worse-ification' Whether to use different timeframes for different asset classes Thoughts on 'pyramiding' in and out of positions Rich's explanation of the term 'non-linearity squared' Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Richard on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI153: Being Aware of Known & Unknown Risks ft Mark Rzepczynski

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 15, 2021 71:17

    Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, the different types of liquidity, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power since the Bretton Woods agreement has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to integrate ESG investing with Trend Following. In this episode, we discuss: Some famous quotes which apply to investing, such as Donald Rumsfeld's quote about the types of risks to be aware of How macro data can contribute to a profitable trading system The true definitions of liquidity Futures markets as the most liquid in the world Why a rules-based approach to the markets is so important The 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement Trend Following with markets that are ESG-friendly Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI152: Love Your Rules, But Not Your Positions ft Jerry Parker

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2021 75:53

    Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum's recent rise after a new ‘hard fork', auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into account human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). In this episode, we discuss: The recent comeback in crypto markets and trading crypto futures Thoughts on autocorrelation The benefits of trading a wide range of markets How over-optimisation can result in underperformance Why ESG investing should consider human rights issues as well as environmental Why your rules are more important than any one position How decreasing position size can increase a system's profits Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://my.captivate.fm/@RJParkerJr09 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI151 Long-Term Profitability vs Short-Term Luck ft Moritz Seibert

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2021 61:19

    Today we're joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz's addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system. In this episode, we discuss: How effective Backtests can be Apply Trend Following models to synthetic markets Ethereum futures Why 'dirty fuel' markets should still be traded Combining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategy Distinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust system How to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    SI150: Extracting Edges from the Market ft. Richard Brennan

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 25, 2021 66:41

    This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk. In this episode, we discuss: Why there may be no such thing as a 'simple' successful Trend Following strategy How to profit across multiple timeframes How momentum investing is often confused with Trend Following methods Average win rate versus average loss rate Why inflation is usually a good thing for systematic investors Trailing stops and risk management How many markets are ideal for a profitable Trend Following system Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Richard on Twitter. IT's TRUE

    SI149: Model Anxiety & Algorithm Aversion ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2021 68:23

    Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion' and the science of how ‘model anxiety' shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems. We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity' as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important. In this episode, we discuss: How behavioural finance leaves investors under-allocated to Trend Following strategies How to perceive momentum data Why the steady flow of market news often has little value for Trend Followers Embracing simplicity The need to avoid too many filters in your system How much should be risked per trade Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    149 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – July 18th, 2021

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2021 68:23

    Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion' and the science of how ‘model anxiety' shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems.  We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity' as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important. You can find Mark's latest writings here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

    SI148: The Importance of Capturing A Few Large Trends ft. Jerry Parker

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 11, 2021 68:31

    Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn't as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical' Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry's Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://my.captivate.fm/@RJParkerJr09 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    148 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – July 11th, 2021

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 11, 2021 68:31

    Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn't as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical' Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry's Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

    SI147: The Perfect Exit Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 5, 2021 64:30

    Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly. In this episode, we discuss: The benefits of simplifying your trading approach as much as possible Optimal exits from hugely profitable trades How to engage in related to your investment approach Over complicating a trading strategy Acceptable margin amounts Spread-trading using a Trend Following strategy Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Moritz on https://my.captivate.fm/@MoritzSeibert (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    147 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – July 4th, 2021

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 4, 2021 64:30

    Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly. You can find some of Moritz's work here, and over at Real Vision. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

    SI146: The Trend Following Mindset ft. Rob Carver

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 28, 2021 89:40

    We're joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes. You can read some of Rob's work https://qoppac.blogspot.com/ (here). In this episode, we discuss: Trend Following as a solution to rising inflation The major stock indices being of composed of mainly companies are losing money Trend Following on ETFs Predicting future returns using current risk exposure Retail traders versus professional money managers Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Rob on https://my.captivate.fm/@InvestingIdiocy (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    146 Systematic Investor Series ft Rob Carver – June 28th, 2021

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2021 90:59

    We're joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes. You can read some of Rob's work here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

    SI145: The 3 D's of Inflation ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2021 78:02

    Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D's' of inflation. In this episode, we discuss: Commodity prices falling, even after recent inflation fears How price action incorporates all narratives Trend Following on options The extra costs of short-term trading Single stocks versus index futures If Technical Analysis forms part of a typical Trend Following system Mark's '3 D's' of inflation You can find Mark's latest writings https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/ (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    145 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – June 20th, 2021

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2021 78:02

    Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D's' of inflation. You can find Mark's latest writings here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

    SI144: Why Single Stocks Should Matter to CTAs ft. Jerry Parker

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2021 81:30

    Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good trading system should have. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here). Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Jerry on https://my.captivate.fm/@RJParkerJr09 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

    144 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – June 13th, 2021

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2021 81:30

    Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good trading system should have. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

    SI143: How Decentralised Is Bitcoin? ft. Eric Crittenden

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 7, 2021 86:10

    Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve's recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric's last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn't always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we're wired to do, how managed futures can help investor's portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following. In this episode, we discuss: The misconceptions around the safety & profitability of a typical 60/40 portfolio The recent Federal Reserve decision to tighten fiscal policy Eric's last appearance on the show, which was at the exact bottom of the 2020 market crash The varying speeds of Trend Following Why low-volatility returns may not mean that a strategy isn't risky Overcoming behavioural biases Managed futures as a great benefit to investor's portfolios The flight out of fixed income Why crypto investors could benefit from Trend Following Changing the narrative around Trend Following Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT's TRUE

    143 Systematic Investor Series ft Eric Crittenden – June 7th, 2021

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 6, 2021 86:10

    Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve's recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric's last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn't always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we're wired to do, how managed futures can help investor's portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following. Find out more about Eric and his firm Standpoint here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT's TRUE

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