Podcasts about long term capital management

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains how his outlook on earnings and valuations give him a constructive view on U.S. equities for the next 12 months.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll discuss where there is the most push back to our Mid-year outlook and why I remain convicted in our generally constructive view on U.S. equities for the next 12 months.It's Monday, June 2nd at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.To briefly summarize our outlook, we have maintained our 6500 12-month price target for the S&P 500 this year despite what has been a very volatile first five months – both in terms of news flow and price action. Part of the reason we didn't change this view stems from the fact that we expected the first half to be challenging for U.S. stocks but to be followed by a more favorable second half. Much of this was related to our view that the new administration would pursue the growth negative part of their policy agenda first. This played out -- with their focus on immigration enforcement, spending cutbacks and tariffs. In addition to these policy adjustments, we also expected AI capex to decelerate in the first half after such fast growth last year. All of these factors conspired to weigh on both economic growth and earnings revisions.Second, the way in which tariffs were rolled out on Liberation Day was a shock to most market participants, including us, and served as the perfect catalyst for what can only be described as capitulation selling by many institutional investors. That capitulation has set the stage for the very reflexive snap back in equity prices that is also supported by a positive rate of change on policy, earnings revisions breadth, financial conditions and a weaker U.S. dollar.The main push back to our views centers on our constructive earnings outlook for high single digit growth both this year and next and our view that valuations can remain elevated at 21.5x forward Earnings. On the earnings front, our calendar year earnings estimates already incorporate a mid-single-digit percent hit to bottoms-up consensus forecasts. Second, our Leading Earnings Indicator which projects Earnings Per Share growth 12 months out is suggesting a sideways consolidation in growth in the high single-digit range over the next year.Third, a weaker dollar, elements of the tax bill and AI-driven productivity should be incremental tailwinds for earnings that are not in our model. Fourth, we have experienced rolling recessions for many sectors of the private economy for the last 3 years, which makes growth comparisons easier. Finally, and most importantly, the rate of change on earnings revisions breadth has inflected higher from a very low level after a year-long downturn. On valuation, our work shows that if earnings growth is above the long-term median of 7 percent and if the fed funds rate is down on a year-over-year basis, it's very rare to see multiple compression. In fact, Price Earnings multiples have expanded 90 percent of the time under these conditions to the tune of 9 percent over a 12- month period. Therefore, in some ways we're being conservative with our forecast for the S&P 500's price earnings ratio to remain flat at current levels over the next year.With respect to our favorite valuation metric, the equity risk premium, it's interesting to note that in the week following Liberation Day, the Equity Risk Premium reached the same level we witnessed in the aftermath of the 9-11 shock in 2001 and even exceeded the risk premium reached during the Long-Term Capital Management crisis in 1998. Both episodes resulted in 20 percent corrections to the S&P 500 much like we experienced this year only to be followed by very strong equity markets over the next year.The bottom line is that I remain convicted in both our earnings forecast for high single digit earnings growth for this year and next; and my view that valuations can remain elevated in this classic late cycle expansion of slower economic growth that typically elicits interest rate cuts from the Fed.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review; and if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

In the latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I'm joined by Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of Elm Wealth, for a conversation that spans revolution, crisis, and hard-earned wisdom. From seeing his family lose nearly everything during the Iranian revolution, to his high-stakes years at Salomon Brothers and as a founding partner of the infamous Long-Term Capital Management, Victor's journey is nothing short of extraordinary. After stepping back from markets for over a decade following LTCM's collapse, he returned with a mission: to help investors avoid the pitfalls he'd seen firsthand. We discuss the crucial—and often overlooked—importance of position sizing, the seductive danger of private equity pitches, and why too many wealthy investors are flying blind. Victor shares the principles behind his “eyes open” investing philosophy and explains why sticking to low-cost, diversified, logic-based strategies may be the most underrated path to long-term success. This is a conversation packed with insight, humility, and lessons that only experience can teach. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

We live in an increasingly uncertain world. But what are the economic and financial implications of such turbulent times? What does it mean for Europe's banking and non-bank sectors, companies, households, and government finances? And how can Europe navigate such volatility? Our host Paul Gordon discusses these questions and more with expert John Fell in the latest episode of The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 22 May 2025 and recorded on 16 May 2025. In this episode: 01:50 Geopolitical developments and global financial imbalances How did markets react to the high level of uncertainty? 05:10 Safe havens What are safe havens? What happened to US government bonds? 09:08 Europe's reaction Can Europe afford the increased spending in security and defense? What happens to other structural challenges? 13:18 Potential unexpected consequences What positive benefits can defence spending bring? Can it boost growth? What are the solutions to instabilities that might bring? 16:33 Our guest's hot tip John shares his hot tip with our listeners. Further readings: Financial Stability Review, May 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html Our guest's hot tip: When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein https://www.amazon.de/-/en/When-Genius-Failed-Long-Term-Management/dp/0375758259 European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

Listen on:Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i Watch on: https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featuredChris discusses potential US-China trade talks, noting China's willingness to negotiate if the US shows “sincerity” by canceling tariffs. He highlights China's removal of some US tariffs and reports of worker protests and factory closures in China due to 145% US tariffs, as per the Economic Times of India. Markowski warns of economic fallout, citing Rand Paul and Ron Johnson's concerns, and stresses the unsustainability of high tariffs, comparing them to risky investments like Long-Term Capital Management. He advocates for a cautious, “scalpel” approach to avoid ruin, emphasizing the US's democratic vulnerabilities compared to China's authoritarian control. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com

Because of the podcast I get to meet a lot of super successful people. I'm always asking them "Who is the smartest person you know" and "Who do you think has the best business?". "Ken Griffin" is a very common answer. I've heard Ken described in two ways: "Winner" and "Killer".  For years I've come across interesting anecdotes about Ken. Like when he appears as a 19 year old kid in Ed Thorp's excellent autobiography A Man For All Markets. Or when John Arnold describe Ken's intense competitive drive following the blowup of Enron. And then consider the fact that I'm obsessed with people who run their business for decades (Ken founded Citadel 35 years ago and Citadel Securities 23 years ago) — and I knew I had to make an episode about his life and work. The only problem was there's no great biography of Ken. So to make this episode I transcribed this talk that Ken gave at Yale. And for additional context I read the book Ken recommends: Hardball: Are You Playing to Play or Playing to Win. ----Ramp gives you everything you need to control spend, watch your costs, and optimize your financial operations —all on a single platform. Make history's greatest entrepreneurs proud by going to Ramp and learning how they can help your business control your costs and save more. ----Founders Notes gives you the ability to tap into the collective knowledge of history's greatest entrepreneurs on demand. Use it to supplement the decisions you make in your work.  Get access to Founders Notes here. ----Join my free email newsletter to get my top 10 highlights from every book  ----Founders Notes gives you the ability to tap into the collective knowledge of history's greatest entrepreneurs on demand. Use it to supplement the decisions you make in your work. Get access to Founders Notes here. ----“I have listened to every episode released and look forward to every episode that comes out. The only criticism I would have is that after each podcast I usually want to buy the book because I am interested so my poor wallet suffers. ” — GarethBe like Gareth. Buy a book: All the books featured on Founders Podcast

Jim Rickards returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss "MAGAnomics" - the multi-faceted economic strategy of the Trump administration. Rickards explains the three-legged stool of Trump's economic policy: Bessent's 3-3-3 Plan, Navarro's tariff strategy, and Miran's "Mar-a-Lago Accord." He warns of a potential "time bomb" in the financial system if Treasury Bills are swapped for 100-year bonds, discusses why central banks are racing to buy gold, and explains why the current gold rally is "just getting started." Rickards also shares his market outlook, predicting continued market decline and potential recession before long-term economic gains can be realized. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/julia More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: https://www.amazon.com/MoneyGPT-AI-Threat-Global-Economy/dp/0593718631http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/realjimrickards0:00 - Intro and welcome Jim Rickards 1:04 - Big picture 3:01 - Tariff strategies and market impact4:49 - Auto industry specifics and tariff implications6:50 - Discussion on economic principles and strategies11:05 - Geopolitical impacts of oil pricing13:17 - How tariffs work in practice15:27 - Benefits of tariffs and job creation in the US16:50 - Economic agreements and strategies27:11 - Treasury strategies and fiscal policies30:07 - Federal land resources and economic opportunities31:27 - U.S. financial stability and government strategies33:26 - Dynamics of U.S. Treasury securities35:34 - Importance of Treasury bills in global finance38:32 - Necessity of short-term Treasury bills39:58 - Discussion on U.S. dollar and trade policies42:37 - Globalization and economic policies44:02 - Assessment of current economic moves45:25 - Gold market dynamics and central bank activities48:49 - Geopolitical strategy using economic tools51:13 - Global gold demand and production53:45 - Market psychology and gold pricing 54:15 - Future prospects of gold market 55:10 - Economic forecasts and stock market trends 58:05 - Interest rate policies and economic implications 59:38 - Final thoughts and where to find Jim Rickards' work

In this episode, Clay explores When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein, the gripping story of the rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).  Founded by Wall Street's brightest minds, including Nobel Prize-winning economists, LTCM generated astronomical returns using complex mathematical models and extreme leverage—until a financial crisis in 1998 exposed its fatal flaws. Clay also discusses the dangers of overconfidence, the illusion of diversification, and why excessive leverage can be a ticking time bomb.  Additionally, he shares details on an exclusive value investing event hosted by TIP in Big Sky, Montana, in September 2025. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:34 - How John Meriwether and a team of Wall Street's brightest minds, including Nobel laureates, built a hedge fund that seemed invincible, using sophisticated financial models and extreme leverage. 25:55 - LTCM's reliance on mathematical models that assumed markets behaved rationally, leading them to underestimate the possibility of extreme events. 48:30 - How the Russian debt default triggered widening credit spreads, exposing LTCM's overleveraged positions and leading to catastrophic losses. 54:49 - Why LTCM's failure posed systemic risks to the global financial system, forcing the Fed to coordinate a rescue with major Wall Street banks. 01:08:17 - The dangers of excessive leverage, overconfidence in financial models, and the mistaken belief that markets always revert to historical norms. 01:15:09 - How to attend our new value investing event in Big Sky, Montana, bringing together passionate investors for deep discussions and meaningful connections. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Lowenstein's book: When Genius Failed. Mentioned book: Big Mistakes. Related Episode: Listen to TIP514: Permanent Supply Chain Disruptions that Will Destroy the Economy w/ Jim Rickards. Email Shawn at shawn@theinvestorspodcast.com to attend our free events in Omaha or visit this page. Follow Clay on X. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Hardblock Found SimpleMining CFI Education The Bitcoin Way Unchained Netsuite Fintool Shopify Onramp Vanta TurboTax Fundrise HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

From LTCM Collapse to $2B Success: Victor Haghani's Path with Elm Wealth and Dynamic Index Investing® Website: www.ElmWealth.comTicker: $ELMBioBio Victor Haghani graduated from the London School of Economics in 1984. He worked for Salomon Brothers in New York in research and on the bond arbitrage desk from 1984-1993. In 1993, Victor was a co-founding partner and co-headed the London office of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. He founded Elm Wealth in 2011 to help clients, including his own family, manage and preserve their wealth through Dynamic Index Investing®, an investment approach pioneered at Elm. Victor discussed the potential benefits of combining the best features of passive and active investing in a TEDx talk he gave on investing, Where Are All the Billionaires and Why Should We Care?. Victor has been a prolific contributor to the academic and practitioner finance literature, writing many articles published in peer-reviewed academic journals, anthologies, and mainstream news media. Victor has helped run several widely referenced investor psychology experiments, often based on subjects betting real money on uncertain, positive edge opportunities (Coin Flip game and Crystal Ball challenge). He is a co-author of The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions (Wiley, 2023), which was named to The Economist's Best Books of 2023 list.

There's this cautionary tale, in the finance world, that nearly any trader can tell you. It's about placing too much confidence in math and models. It's the story of Long Term Capital Management.The story begins back in the 90s. A group of math nerds figured out how to use a mathematical model to identify opportunities in the market, tiny price discrepancies, that they could bet big on. Those bets turned into big profits, for them and their clients. They were the toast of Wall Street; it looked like they'd solved the puzzle of risk-taking. But their overconfidence in their strategy led to one of the biggest financial implosions in U.S. history, and destabilized the entire market.On today's show, what happens when perfect math meets the mess of human nature? And what did we learn (and what did we not learn) from the legendary tale of Long Term Capital Management?This episode of Planet Money was hosted by Mary Childs and Jeff Guo. It was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler and edited by Jess Jiang. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and engineered by Robert Rodriguez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.Listen free at these links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Jon Hartley and Myron Scholes discuss Myron's career, including being at the University of Chicago at the dawn of financial economics as a field, how Myron met Fischer Black, and the development of the Black-Scholes option pricing model, investing, innovation, and financial regulation. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS: Myron Scholes is the Frank E. Buck Professor of Finance, Emeritus, at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, and co-originator of the Black-Scholes options pricing model. Scholes was awarded the Nobel Prize in 1997 for his new method of determining the value of derivatives. Scholes is currently the chairman of the board of economic advisers of Stamos Partners. Previously, he served as the chairman of Platinum Grove Asset Management and on the Dimensional Fund Advisors board of directors, American Century Mutual Fund board of directors, and the Cutwater advisory board. He was a principal and limited partner at Long-Term Capital Management, L.P., and a managing director at Salomon Brothers. Other positions Scholes held include the Edward Eagle Brown Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago, senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution, director of the Center for Research in Security Prices, and professor of Finance at MIT's Sloan School of Management. Scholes earned his PhD at the University of Chicago. Jon Hartley is the host of the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Podcast at the Hoover Institution and an economics PhD Candidate at Stanford University, where he specializes in finance, labor economics, and macroeconomics. He is also currently an Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), and a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. Jon is also a member of the Canadian Group of Economists, and serves as chair of the Economic Club of Miami. Jon has previously worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management as well as in various policy roles at the World Bank, IMF, Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, US Congress Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Bank of Canada.  Jon has also been a regular economics contributor for National Review Online, Forbes, and The Huffington Post and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Globe and Mail, National Post, and Toronto Star among other outlets. Jon has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, and NBC, and was named to the 2017 Forbes 30 Under 30 Law & Policy list, the 2017 Wharton 40 Under 40 list, and was previously a World Economic Forum Global Shaper. ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics. For more information, visit: capitalismandfreedom.substack.com/

Victor Haghani started his career at Salomon Brothers and shortly after became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. He was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management and established its London office. The failure of LTCM was a life-changing experience that led him to question and revise much of the way he thought about the economy, markets, and investing. His new book - The Missing Billionaires is a personal finance book that examines why there are so few "old money" billionaires on the current rich lists. The book focuses on poor risk decisions, both in investing and spending. Many of the millionaires from 125 years ago didn't choose bad investments– they simply sized them incorrectly– and allowed their spending decisions to amplify this mistake. The Missing Billionaires book offers a framework for making important lifetime financial decisions in a systematic and rational way. In today's interview Victor discusses how much risk an investor should take to safely grow their wealth or how much of a good thing is too much? The Missing Billionaires on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3OIr6u8 Subscribe to Victor's Mailing List: https://elmwealth.com/elm-in-the-press/ Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Business Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org

Jim Rickards returns to the podcast for episode 210 to discuss the 2024 election results, his outlook for the economy and why he sees a recession in the near term followed by a great recovery, and his warning on artificial intelligence. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.  Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main  A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond's YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy.  An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links:   https://www.amazon.com/MoneyGPT-AI-Threat-Global-Economy/dp/0593718631 http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards

Jack Cohen is a legend in commercial real estate. He is the DARK KNIGHT in commercial real estate. He was the former CEO of Cohen Financial for 25 years. Cohen Financial was one of the largest commercial real estate lenders in the nation. Jack chats about his 40+ year history in commercial real estate investing and lending. He brings interesting questions to the table: “When investors look at their investment processes, as well as the investments that they made during 2019-2024, what have they learned? What worked? What would they have done differently? ALL of us backed projects and sponsors during this period that ultimately played out very differently than we thought. Some played out better, some played out worse, than we thought. What can we learn from this? Can we finally agree that cash flow matters? That our space – Commercial – is defined by income producing real estate. That means we actually must underwrite tenants' capacity to pay rent as well as a sponsor's ability to manage expenses properly. SOFR has gone up and today the marketplace is mostly financed with short term floating rate loans. Did we not learn this lesson in the 1990's with the failure of Long-Term Capital Management? The punchline is to match duration of assets with liabilities. Borrowing short on a long-term asset has its risks.” WOW!! To contact Jack Cohen: darkknightventures.net Are you interested in learning more about how Multifamily Syndications work? Please visit www.spiadvisory.com to learn more about Michael Becker's Real Estate Syndication business with SPI Advisory. If you enjoyed this discussion; Please leave us a 5-STAR RATING on iTunes

Podcast Episode 160 In this episode today, Rohan and David discussed the following:  The podcast, celebrating its four-year anniversary, continues to provide insights on real estate and other topics, sharing weekly updates and personal favorites. Market Update: Recent economic events have created turbulence in the financial markets Jobs Report: July saw only 114,000 new jobs, missing the expected 175,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This was the lowest job growth since December 2020. Stock Market Reaction: The Dow Jones fell over 1,100 points on August 5th, spurred by mixed signals including Buffett's sale of Apple stock and negative earnings reports from major companies. Federal Reserve: There was speculation about an emergency rate cut due to market turmoil, though the Fed did not act. Historical instances of emergency rate cuts include 1998 (Long-Term Capital Management crisis), 2001 (tech bubble), and March 2020 (pandemic). Japanese Market Impact: Japan's interest rate adjustments and subsequent market drop contributed to global market instability. Real Estate Insights: Interest Rates**: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.47%, a 15-month low, benefiting home buyers. Deutsche Bank: Selling $1 billion in commercial real estate loans to clean up its balance sheet, reflecting ongoing struggles in the office space sector. Sam Zell's Legacy: Equity Commonwealth, founded by the late Sam Zell, is liquidating its assets due to the challenging office market environment. Arbor REIT: Reported significant loan delinquencies and a drop in stock price. They are dealing with a high percentage of troubled loans and a federal investigation into their practices. Apartment Market: Slight improvements are noted in the apartment market with reduced vacancies and slowing rent declines. Cannabis Regulation: New York City has shut down 750 illegal cannabis stores, seized $41 million in products, and imposed fines. The city is tightening enforcement to regulate the cannabis market better.  Olympics: The Olympics have captivated viewers, with notable performances and increased ratings compared to recent Games. The 2028 LA Olympics are generating excitement, though some events will be held outside of LA. Rohan enjoyed watching the Olympics with their kids and finds it fascinating how different athletes' speeds compare to their own.

Jim Rickards returns to the podcast for episode 185 to discuss the macro view and political turmoil in the U.S., including the attempted assassination of former President Trump. This episode was recorded on July 18. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and overview 05:46 The current political landscape and global events 16:49 Trump's path to victory 22:27 Internal dynamics within the Democratic Party 26:26 Discussions of a virtual roll call for Biden's nomination 31:03 Biden withdrawing and Harris becoming the nominee 35:11 The landmine of Congress certification in 2025 50:47 The path towards a recession 56:34 The stock market bubble and concentration risk 59:33 AI

Nel 1994 John Meriwether fonda Long Term Capital Management, l'hedge fund dei geni che annoverava premi Nobel e superstar del mondo della finanza e dell'accademia, e per 4 anni realizza risultati incredibili. Finché nel 1998, un evento del tutto inaspettato porta al più spettacolare fallimento a Wall Street fino a Lehman Brothers. Con Nicola Protasoni ripercorriamo questa storia, cerchiamo di trarne insegnamenti per la nostra vita da investitori e parliamo di facciamo qualche ragionamento pratico per i nostri portafogli. The Italian Leather Sofa R. Lowenstein, When Genius Failed Seguiteci anche su Instagram! =============================================== Investi con Scalable in ETF e Azioni a costi imbattibili. L'Assicurazione sulla Vita semplice e conveniente: Turtleneck Migliaia di audiolibri riassunti in 15 minuti con 4Books. Ottieni le migliori tariffe per Luce, Gas, Internet e Cellulare con Switcho. I link sono sponsorizzati e l'Autore potrebbe percepire una commissione. =============================================== ATTENZIONE: nessun contenuto di questo podcast deve essere inteso come una raccomandazione di investimento. La citazione di determinati ETF è a mero scopo esemplificativo e non deve essere intesa in alcun modo come una sollecitazione all'acquisto di specifici prodotti finanziari. L'autore non è un consulente finanziario e non intende presentarsi come tale. Investire comporta dei rischi. Affidatevi sempre a dei professionisti e/o assicuratevi sempre di aver compreso pienamente il funzionamento, le implicazioni e i rischi di ciascun prodotto finanziario prima di investirvi del denaro. L'autore non è inoltre collegato ad alcuna società emittente di prodotti di investimento. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Upcoming Event!How Can Mindfulness Help You Reach Financial Independence?Do you want to reduce money anxiety, but don't know who to trust?Would you like to learn how to set up and manage your own retirement plan?Do you want to know how we create a passive income stream you can't outlive?If yes, join us and learn how to answer the 4 critical financial independence questions:Am I on track for financial independence?What do I need to do to get on track?How do I design a mindful investing portfolio?How do I manage that portfolio and my income over time through changing markets?Learn more: https://courses.mindful.money/financial-independence-bootcampIn this episode, I speak with Victor Haghani, a Seasoned Financial Expert whose journey through the realms of high finance is nothing short of enlightening. Victor shares his rich history of Long-Term Capital Management. From his early days in New York and Iran to his pivotal roles at Salomon Brothers and finally to founding Elm Wealth. His insights into the evolution of his investment strategies, particularly his shift from high-stakes trading to a more sustainable, mindful approach to personal wealth management, are not just educational but deeply relatable. Victor's recent work, including his book "The Missing Billionaires," offers a fresh perspective on making sound financial decisions, which he discusses with a clarity that resonates well beyond the finance-savvy audience.The conversation dives into the practicalities of investing, the common pitfalls of financial decision-making, and the psychological aspects that often trip up even the most astute investors. Victor's approach to simplifying complex financial concepts and his emphasis on learning from past investment outcomes make this discussion a must-listen for anyone looking to navigate the often turbulent waters of personal finance. His personal anecdotes, combined with a straightforward breakdown of investment principles, provide a roadmap that encourages a more thoughtful, disciplined approach to managing money. Join us as we discuss actionable advice that promises to empower you to take control of your financial future with confidence and a newfound understanding.

In Episode 360 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Victor Haghani about his book “The Missing Billionaires” and what a growing body of literature has to say about sensible wealth management and how to invest for the long term. Haghani started his career at Salomon Brothers in 1984, where he became a Managing Director in the bond-arbitrage group, and in 1993, he was a co-founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management. He founded Elm Wealth in 2011 to help clients, including his own family, manage and preserve their wealth with a thoughtful, research-based, and cost-effective approach that covers not just investment management but also broader decisions about wealth and finances. In the episode's first hour, Haghani explains his investment philosophy and his firm's approach to portfolio construction and management, including core financial concepts central to his framework, like expected utility, lift vs. drag, standard deviation as a measure of risk, variance, the shape of return distributions, and how to optimize position sizing and manage portfolio risk in a manner that is both rational and appropriate to your personal objectives and risk preferences. In the second hour, Victor explains Elm Wealth's process for onboarding new investors, including how they measure personal risk preferences, their advice on how to approach investing and spending in older age, how to take into account one's primary income stream when making investment decisions, tax-loss harvesting, and much more. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 04/16/2024

The stock market crash of 1929 was a pivotal event that rippled across the globe. The Great Crash rocked financial markets, not to mention the world economy, and proved to be a precursor to the Great Depression. The sudden selloff wiped out the fortunes of investors who were ill prepared to ride out a bear market. Today, investors must heed the lessons from volatile markets of the past and take stock of hidden risks that may reveal themselves as current market conditions evolve. What strategies can investors employ to mitigate downside risks in their portfolios? This episode of The Outthinking Investor examines risk through the lens of alternatives. Experts discuss the challenges investors face in making the right decisions for their portfolios, taking a holistic view of diversification, and the role that alts can play in both managing risk and capturing opportunities that emerge from volatility. Hear from Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of the wealth advisory firm Elm Wealth and co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management; Apostolos Katsaris, Senior Client Portfolio Manager for PGIM Wadhwani; and Ryan Kelly, Head of Special Situations for PGIM Fixed Income.

Our guest on the podcast today is Victor Haghani. He is the co-author of a new book called The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions. In 2011, Victor founded Elm Wealth, an investment advisory firm for high-net-worth individuals. He started his career at Salomon Brothers in 1984, where he became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group. And in 1993, he was a co-founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management. He graduated from the London School of Economics with a bachelor's degree in economics.BackgroundBioElm WealthThe Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions, by Victor Haghani and James WhiteInvestment Sizing and Expected Utility“The Most Costly Investment Mistake You Can Make Is Easy to Avoid,” by Victor Haghani and James White, Bloomberg.com, Feb. 14, 2024.“Bigger Is the Enemy of Better Investing,” by Victor Haghani and Richard Dewey, businesstimes.com, March 20, 2021.Robert K. Merton“Merton Model: Definition, History, Formula, What It Tells You,” by Will Kenton, Investopedia.com, Aug. 10, 2022.“Lifetime Portfolio Selection Under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case,” by Robert C. Merton, jstor.org, August 1969.“How Much of a Good Thing Is Too Much?” by Victor Haghani, linkedin.com, Oct. 11, 2022.“To Realize, or Not to Realize,” by Victor Haghani and James White, elmwealth.com, Oct. 22, 2020.Lifetime and Retirement Spending“Spending Like You'll Live Forever,” by Victor Haghani and James White, elmwealth.com, April 6, 2021.“Cut Your Losses Early; Let Your Profits Run,” by Victor Haghani, linkedin.com, Aug. 8, 2023.Puzzles“George Costanza At It Again: The Leveraged ETF Episode,” by Victor Haghani and James White, elmwealth.com, April 16, 2020.“Who Wants Protection Like This?” by Victor Haghani, linkedin.com, Nov. 14, 2022.Other“Vic's TEDx Talk: Where Are All the Billionaires and Why Should We Care?” Elmwealth.com, March 8, 2013.Matt LevineMichael LewisThe St. Petersburg ParadoxHal Hershfield“Hal Hershfield: People Treat Their Future Self as if It's Another Person,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 21, 2021.Stumbling on Happiness, by Daniel GilbertWhen Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management, by Robert LowensteinInventing Money: The Story of Long-Term Capital Management and the Legends Behind It, by Nicholas Dunbar

L'epopea del primo grande fondo speculativo gestito da matematici che dopo aver toccato il cielo si è schiantato sotto il peso dell'inefficacia dei suoi stessi algoritmi ed essere salvato dall'intervento pubblico. Long Term Capital Management inaugura la stagione del "too big too fail" e costringe il sistema finanziario a salvarla. L'intervento della FED di New York si trasformerà in un vademecum per le banche centrali: evitare le emergenze e garantire la continuità del sistema anche a costo di salvare i responsabili. Questo è esattamente ciò che accade quando la FED decide di salvare Long Term Capital, una sorta di prequel di quello che avremmo visto nei successivi 25 anni. Sostieni il lavoro di Will sottoscrivendo la membership. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jonny Matthews, founder of Super Macro and former portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and managing director at Citi & Saloman Brothers, joins Forward Guidance to share his view on markets and the economy. Having netted a near 100% return in 2022 with a very large short in Treasury bonds, Matthews has been a proud “recession denier” for several years. While he is now concerned with some worrisome data in the U.S., Matthews continues to believe that an imminent recession in the U.S. is unlikely. Matthews and Farley also discuss the dangers of correlation trades, the challenges of currency trading, the severe slowdown in Europe, and the perils of variance swaps in 2008 and Long-Term Capital Management. Filmed on November 2, 2023. -- MetaMask Portfolio is your one-stop shop for all things web3. Instead of connecting to multiple exchanges, dapps, and tools, you just need to connect to one simple dapp to track and manage all your assets across different networks and accounts. MetaMask Portfolio provides a secure and convenient way to perform common tasks such as Buy, Sell, Swap, Bridge, and Stake. Try MetaMask Portfolio: https://metamask.io/portfolio/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campai[…]_Podcast_ForwardGuidance&utm_content=pDapp_podcast_FG_shownotes -- Follow Jonny Matthews on Twitter https://twitter.com/super_macro Super Macro: https://t.co/jfb5Vw982B Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:34) Jonny's Massive Trade Shorting Bonds (07:18) Analyzing Bond Demand Is Too Hard: Jonny Prefers To Track The Economy (11:47) Concerning Changes In Recent Economic Data (17:29) Pushing Back Against Jonny's "Recession Denier" Thesis (21:13) Manufacturing Can Enter Recession While Overall Economy Is Not In Recession (22:53) Excess Savings Indicate American Consumer Still Flush With Cash (26:59) Jonny's Macro Trades As Of November 2023 (29:41) Real Rates Are Unlikely To Go Much Higher (31:55) Curve Will Likely Re-Steepen When Fed Cuts Rates (39:39) Economy in Europe Is "Much Much Weaker" (41:33) Views On The Dollar & The Euro (42:55) Bank of England & Inflation In the U.K. (47:47) View On British Stocks (50:16) China & Japan (01:00:22) Trading Volatility Is Different Than Trading The Underlying Asset (01:03:08) The Danger of Correlations Trades: Ghosts of 2008 (01:05:40) Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) Blow-up -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 

Victor Haghani is co-author of the book “The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions.” Haghani started his career in 1984 at Salomon Brothers, where he became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. In 1993 he was a co-founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management, and in 2011 he founded Elm Wealth to help clients, including his own family, manage and preserve their wealth. (11/2023)

BIO: Sam Burns is Chief Investment Strategist at Mill Street Research, an independent investment research firm based near Boston, MA. For 25 years, he has focused on global asset allocation and quantitative stock selection, primarily for institutional investors.STORY: Sam decided to short-sell options that went horribly wrong after the Russian default. Even though he knew how options work in principle and that he could lose money, Sam didn't have a plan for what if some geopolitical event happened, causing the market to fall suddenly. And so he lost a whole lot of money in the trade.LEARNING: Understand what you're really betting on. Every option trade is about volatility. Have a plan for what could go wrong and what you'll do about it before you look at the headline to see what's happening. “There often are hidden drivers of an investment that are not what you think they are.”Sam Burns Guest profileSam Burns is Chief Investment Strategist at Mill Street Research, an independent investment research firm based near Boston, MA. For 25 years now, he has focused on global asset allocation and quantitative stock selection, primarily for institutional investors. After spending many years doing research at firms like Oppenheimer & Co, State Street, Brown Brothers Harriman, and Ned Davis Research, Sam founded Mill Street in 2016 to be able to bring all of his best work together and offer it to clients without any constraints or conflicts.Worst investment everSam had been trading options for a while, mainly from the long side, buying puts and calls, which, at the very least, has a limited risk aspect since you can only lose what you put in. At some point, Sam decided to try short-sell options, which went violently against him.This was in August 1998 when the Russian default set off a chain reaction of problems and Long-Term Capital Management blew up. Even though he knew how options work in principle and that he could lose money, Sam didn't have a plan for what if some geopolitical event happened, causing the market to fall suddenly. And so he lost a whole lot of money in the trade.Lessons learnedEvery option trade is about volatility.Have a plan for what could go wrong and what you'll do about it before you look at the headline to see what's happening.Ensure you're capitalized well enough to handle or ride through ups and downs and drawdowns.Andrew's takeawaysUnderstand what you're really betting on.Actionable adviceMake a point to think through what's behind an investment and understand the other things moving simultaneously that might explain the movement of the asset you're interested in.Sam's recommendationsSam recommends listening to or reading people who are practitioners involved in markets day to day rather than journalists, who, though they do a great job, a lot of them write for a different reason than to make you a better investor.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsSam's number one goal for the next 12 months is to try and stay on the right side of the macro picture.Parting words “Have a plan.”Sam Burns [spp-transcript] Connect with Sam Burns

Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) returns to the podcast to discuss what the Israel-Hamas war could mean for the global economy, the impact on oil prices, and the rise of antisemitism on American college campuses.   This episode was recorded on October 19.  Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy.  An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links:  http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards 0:00 Welcome back to the show, Jim Rickards 1:20 The big picture, according to Rickards  2:16 Horror of October 7  8:27 Israel's response in Gaza  10:30 Egypt, Jordan unwilling to take in Palestinians  12:16 Ground invasion and logistics  13:45 A much more brutal, drawn-out and violent result  15:20 What this could mean for investors  21:00 A financial war  26:00 Greatest threat to the dollar 28:00 Ineffectiveness of sanctions  34:00 Antisemitism on college campuses 

As regular viewers know, this channel's mission is focused on wealth building, how to help its viewers fund their life goals. Risk management is a big part of successfully building wealth. But many people -- even sometimes the "smartest guys on Wall Street" -- fail to adequately protect themselves from downside risk. Perhaps the best-known example of this is the surprise implosion of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, back in the late 1990s. The firm was helmed by some of Wall Street's most revered talent as well as several recipients of the Noble Prize in Economics -- and yet it failed spectacularly. What lessons can we learn from this? And what chance does the regular investor have in making good financial decisions over time when even the cream of the crop can get things so wrong? For answers, we're fortunate to hear from Victor Haghani, one of the co-founding partners of Long Term Capital Management and co-author of the brand new book, The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions #investing #wealthbuilding #wallstreet ************************ At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world's top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance. Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis. Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.wealthion.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A?sub_confirmation=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Adam on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/menlobear⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow us on Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/Wealthion-109680281218040⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ****************************** IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as official investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust.

In this episode I speak with Dean Curnutt, founder of Macro Risk Advisors and host of the Alpha Exchange podcast.This episode is all about the nature of risk. More specifically, the endogenous risk that can manifest in markets. We discuss the crash of 1987, Long-Term Capital Management, the Financial Crisis of 2008, the XIV implosion of February 2018, and the 2020 COVID crisis.With these crises in mind, we touches upon topics such as reflexivity, crowding, risk recycling, and the evolving role of the Fed. Dean also shares his thoughts about the nature of risk, how it is woven into the fabric of markets, and why it seems like there's a crisis every 11 years.For those who love to think about risk and the nature of markets, this episode is for you.So sit back, relax, and enjoy this episode of Flirting with Models with Dean Curnutt.

EPISODE 1706: In this KEEN ON show, Andrew talks to Diana B. Henriques, author of TAMING THE STREET, about the New Deal, FDR's fight to regulate American capitalism and its relevance today in Joe Biden's America Diana B. Henriques, an award-winning financial journalist, is the author of A First-Class Catastrophe: The Road to Black Monday, the Worst Day in Wall Street History, released in September 2017. She is also the author of The Wizard of Lies: Bernie Madoff and the Death of Trust, a New York Times bestseller, and three other books on business history. As a staff writer for The New York Times from 1989 to 2012 and as a contributing writer since then, she has largely specialized in investigative reporting on white-collar crime, market regulation and corporate governance. In May 2017, HBO aired its film-length adaptation of The Wizard of Lies, with Robert De Niro in the starring role — and with Ms. Henriques playing herself as the first journalist to interview Madoff in prison. An avid reader and reviewer of financial histories, Ms. Henriques is also the author of Fidelity's World: The Secret Life and Public Power of the Mutual Fund Giant (1995), The White Sharks of Wall Street: Thomas Mellon Evans and The Original Corporate Raiders (2000), and The Machinery of Greed: Public Authority Abuse and What To Do About It. (1986). Ms. Henriques was a member of a reporting team that was named a Pulitzer finalist in 2003 for its coverage of the aftermath of the Enron scandals. She was also a member of a team that won a 1999 Gerald Loeb Award for covering the near-collapse of Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund whose troubles rocked the financial markets in September 1998. She was one of four reporters honored in 1996 by the Deadline Club, the New York City chapter of the Sigma Delta Chi professional journalism society, for a series on how wealthy Americans legally sidestep taxes. She has explored the expansion of tax breaks, regulatory exemptions and Congressional earmarks for religious nonprofits, and helped monitor commodity markets and money market funds in the financial turmoil of late 2008. Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chapter 1 What's the Book Buffett"Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist" is a biography written by Roger Lowenstein that explores the life and investment strategies of Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors in history. Published in 1995, the book delves into Buffett's early years, his journey to becoming a billionaire, and his approach to investing. It provides insights into his value investing philosophy, long-term thinking, and his unique ability to identify undervalued companies. The book offers readers a comprehensive understanding of Buffett's life, career, and the principles that guided his remarkable success in the world of finance.Chapter 2 Is the Book Buffett Worth ReadThe book "Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist" by Roger Lowenstein is a highly regarded biography on the life and investing principles of Warren Buffett. It offers valuable insights into Buffett's investment philosophy, his strategies for success, and his overall approach to business. If you are interested in learning about one of the most successful investors of our time and gaining knowledge about value investing, then this book is definitely worth considering. It provides a comprehensive understanding of Warren Buffett's journey and the factors that contributed to his remarkable achievements. However, it's important to note that reading any book ultimately depends on personal preference and interests. If you have no interest in finance or investing, this book may not resonate with you as much. But if you are intrigued by the world of investing and want to learn from one of the best, "Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist" is a recommended read.Chapter 3 Buffett SummaryBuffett: The Making of an American Capitalist is a remarkable biography that explores the life and achievements of one of the world's most renowned investors, Warren Buffett. This article delves into the captivating story documented in the book, shedding light on the fascinating journey that shaped Buffett into the legendary financier he is today. From his humble beginnings to his groundbreaking investment strategies, we uncover the key milestones and insights that have made Buffett an icon in the realm of finance. Join us as we unravel the secrets behind the making of this extraordinary American capitalist.Chapter 4 Buffett AuthorRoger Lowenstein is an American financial journalist and author. He has written several books on finance and investing, including "When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management" and "The End of Wall Street." Lowenstein is known for his ability to explain complex financial concepts in a clear and engaging manner. In "When Genius Failed," Lowenstein provides a detailed account of the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) in the late 1990s. He delves into the risky investment strategies employed by LTCM and how they ultimately led to its downfall. The book offers valuable insights into the dangers of excessive risk-taking and the interconnectedness of the global financial system. "The End of Wall Street" examines the causes and consequences of the 2008 financial crisis. Lowenstein analyzes the housing bubble, the practices of mortgage lenders, the role of rating agencies, and the failures of regulatory oversight that contributed to the crisis. He explores the aftermath of the crisis and raises important questions about the sustainability of the financial industry's practices. Overall, Roger Lowenstein's work provides readers with a deeper

25 years post the chaotic unwind of Long Term Capital Management, there are lessons a plenty to be gleaned from this event. With this in mind, it was a pleasure to welcome acclaimed writer Roger Lowenstein, author of the famous book “When Genius Failed”, to the Alpha Exchange. His work is a compelling chronical of the vast success but ultimate failure of this storied hedge fund.We discuss some of the philosophical underpinnings of the firm's risk management framework, focusing on the influence of Nobel Prize winners Myron Scholes and Robert Merton. We review some of LTCMs favorite trades and how in reality they were far less diversified than they appeared. And we discuss the rescue, a messy episode involving banks, the Fed and Warren Buffet, kind of.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Roger Lowenstein.

Best-selling author Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) returns to the podcast for the third time to share his views on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and why the intervention — especially the Federal Reserve's new emergency lending program, the Bank Term Funding Program — is the biggest bailout in history. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. 0:00 Intro 1:00 Reaction to SVB, Signature Bank failures 1:54 The mistake Silicon Valley Bank made 4:12 Bond Math 101 4:45 The Fed is between a rock and a hard place 4:52 Huge unrealized losses on the bond portfolio at SVB 6:35 There already was leakage 9:33 Friday's press release from the FDIC 12:50 Global ripple effects of SVB failure 14:50 Other banks had similar problems 17:08 Biggest bailout in history 23:00 Executive stock sales 24:11 There would likely have been lines at banks 25:00 The biggest crybabies were the billionaires 26:15 The banking system is effectively nationalized 32:00 This was risk management 101 39:46 The Volcker mistake 40:50 Inflation 42:30 You'll see the Fed expanding the balance sheet 43:30 Name your poison 44:10 25bps at the next Fed meeting is the most likely scenario 44:55 This is the no-drama Fed 45:45 ECB 46:10 It's a global economy 47:00 Panics have two stages 47:30 Credit Suisse 52:10 A road to ruin 54:35 Each bailout was bigger than the one before 55:30 A front based on confidence 58:30 Deteriorating trust in institutions 1:07:27 Gold

Nobel Prize winner Myron Scholes and Elm Wealth's Victor Haghani discuss the Golden Rules of Investing.Victor Haghani is a former Salomon Brothers colleague of mine and one of the founders of Long-Term Capital Management. A decade ago Victor founded a wealth advisor, Elm Wealth, as an extension of managing his family office. I endorse Victor's wealth management strategy that dynamically manages portfolios of low cost ETFs focused on delivering attractive risk-adjusted, after-tax returns for clients. You will hear directly from Vic about these ideas and you can learn more from his website elmwealth.com.Myron Scholes won the Nobel Prize for his contributions to options theory. This is just a tiny fraction of his many contributions to finance. Myron will speak today about the importance of diversification both across assets and time. Myron was an early advocate of low cost index funds and believes that you need to dynamically change your investment portfolio when market risk conditions change. Get full access to What Happens Next in 6 Minutes with Larry Bernstein at www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com/subscribe

Nobel Prize winner Myron Scholes and Elm Wealth's Victor Haghani discuss the Golden Rules of Investing.Victor Haghani is a former Salomon Brothers colleague of mine and one of the founders of Long-Term Capital Management. A decade ago Victor founded a wealth advisor, Elm Wealth, as an extension of managing his family office. I endorse Victor's wealth management strategy that dynamically manages portfolios of low cost ETFs focused on delivering attractive risk-adjusted, after-tax returns for clients. You will hear directly from Vic about these ideas and you can learn more from his website elmwealth.com.Myron Scholes won the Nobel Prize for his contributions to options theory. This is just a tiny fraction of his many contributions to finance. Myron will speak today about the importance of diversification both across assets and time. Myron was an early advocate of low cost index funds and believes that you need to dynamically change your investment portfolio when market risk conditions change. Get full access to What Happens Next in 6 Minutes with Larry Bernstein at www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com/subscribe

Before his FTX cryptocurrency empire collapsed, many of Sam Bankman-Fried's public statements indicated that he made decisions “as though he had no risk aversion,” according to Victor Haghani, the founder and chief investment officer of Elm Partners Management and a co-founder of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund. Haghani joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how Bankman-Fried's tolerance for risk made him highly unusual under the “theory of choice under uncertainty,” and how the causes of FTX's implosion differ from what triggered the failure of LTCM. Haghani also discusses his own approach to assessing risk when investing client assets at Elm Partners. (Note: This episode was recorded in early December, before Bankman-Fried was indicted for his alleged role in FTX's failure.)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jim Rickards (@jamesgrickards) returns to the Julia La Roche Show for episode 36 to discuss his new book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. In this episode, Rickards shares his macro view and why we may be headed for a global recession. He also provides a deep dive into supply chains, describing when and how they broke down and why they won't return to the way they were before 2019. He also shares the emergence of what he calls "supply chain 2.0," which he predicts will consist of a college of nations. Elsewhere, Rickards discusses his take on inflation and why deflation is coming faster than you might think. Finally, he shares his best asset allocation strategies for these uncertain times. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, and The New Case for Gold. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. 0:00 Jim's new book "Sold Out" 0:54 View of the global macroeconomy 1:37 The supply chain is the economy 3:33 What do China, the war in Ukraine, and climate change have to do with supply chains? 6:58 China's Zero-Covid policy and its possible consequences 12:11 We're looking at a global recession, and that's rare 13:24 The future supply chain will look very different 14:35 Why the supply chains broke down and won't go back to the way they were 20:00 Supply Chain 1.0 23:42 What happened when Trump put tariffs on soybeans 30:24 National security and geopolitics 33:48 A college of nations 39:00 Peak China 42:00 Inflation 47:05 Why the Fed can't do anything about the supply side of the equation 49:49 Disinflation and deflation 51:12 Severe recession 54:34 How long would it take for the Fed to cut rates? 1:01:08 Central bankers' worst nightmare 1:05:10 What would a deflationary scenario mean for the economy?

Today's podcast was recorded previously at Stanford at an event to honor my old boss and close friend Myron Scholes who won the Nobel Prize in Economics.  Our first speaker will be Andy Lo who is a Finance Professor at MIT, and he will discuss his book In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio. Andy interviewed a dozen leaders in academic finance and top practitioners about how to design a portfolio balancing risk and reward by maximizing diversification.Our second speaker will be Jonathan Levin who is the Dean of Stanford's Graduate Business School.  Jon will explain how Myron Scholes' ideas have shaped academic research in finance and how his models have been applied by investment professionals.Our third speaker is Victor Haghani. Vic and I worked together at Salomon Brothers before he left to be one of the founding partners at Long-Term Capital Management.  Vic will answer the question, how much should you gamble when you have an excellent investment. Vic's ideas are very important, because most of us focus on what to invest in and spend little time wondering how big to bet? And whether to increase or decrease the wager when uncertainty and volatility increases or decreases over time.Our fourth speaker is my good friend Bruce Tuckman who teaches at NYU's Stern Business School and is the former Chief Economist of the CFTC.  Bruce will discuss the benefits that derivatives like interest rate swaps and commodity futures provide hedgers and investors.Our final speaker today will be Myron Scholes who will discuss the best ways to adjust your portfolio if you are concerned about ESG.  Some market participants who are concerned about carbon emissions are selling shares in their polluters, but Myron thinks that investment managers should first optimize the portfolio and then buy carbon credits to maximize returns while minimizing carbon in the environment. Get full access to What Happens Next in 6 Minutes with Larry Bernstein at www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com/subscribe

Jason Hartman invites Joseph Wang aka The Fed Guy, to the show today. Who better to talk about the inner workings of the Federal Reserve than someone who actually worked there! Joseph Wang is a former senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve and the author of Central Banking 101. Jason and Joseph tackle the biggest question on everyone's mind: will mortgage rates go higher? How much higher can they go? Why did the Fed wait so long to start quantitative tightening and raise rates? Why didn't they do it more gradually? Do you think Powell really thought inflation was transitory as he kept saying? It seems there was a political basis for him thinking that way, which filtered into policy and partially resulted in the huge inflation we're seeing right now. But what gives? If you don't raise rates in order to avoid increased unemployment, then inflation will continue. Joseph Wang also gives his take on the Fed's response during times of economic crisis such as the Great Recession and the recent pandemic. Was it right of the Fed to get involved and stimulate the economy, or should they have let the economy and markets work themselves out? Is the Fed part of a greater conspiracy? Is there a man behind the curtain pulling the strings? Joseph Wang tells all! FedGuy.com Key Takeaways: 0:28 Welcome Joseph Wang, former senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve, author of Central Banking 101 1:33 Interest rates and mortgage backed securities 4:03 Quantitative easing - buying mortgages and treasuries, quantitative tightening - higher mortgage rates 7:21 Raising the borrowing rate above the inflation rate 9:33 Rents are going higher 11:36 Short term vs long term interest rates 12:55 Decreased labor supply and higher wages 14:33 China is the fastest aging country in the entire world 17:24 The Fed is absolutely political 21:37 Debt to GDP ratio and the dollar collapse 24:22 Why do other countries buy dollars? 27:53 Bloodbath in the cryptocurrency markets 29:53 Understanding the Fed - is there a man behind the curtain? 31:56 Was the Fed right to interfere during Covid and the Great Recession? 34:53 What is a shadow bank? 36:56 The story behind Long Term Capital Management 37:58 Economic outlook: be cautious with financial assets 39:36 Joseph Wang's book Central Banking 101, learn more at FedGuy.com, follow Joseph on Twitter @FedGuy12   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com  

Jason Hartman invites Joseph Wang aka The Fed Guy, to the show today. Who better to talk about the inner workings of the Federal Reserve than someone who actually worked there! Joseph Wang is a former senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve and the author of Central Banking 101. Jason and Joseph tackle the biggest question on everyone's mind: will mortgage rates go higher? How much higher can they go? Why did the Fed wait so long to start quantitative tightening and raise rates? Why didn't they do it more gradually? Do you think Powell really thought inflation was transitory as he kept saying? It seems there was a political basis for him thinking that way, which filtered into policy and partially resulted in the huge inflation we're seeing right now. But what gives? If you don't raise rates in order to avoid increased unemployment, then inflation will continue. Joseph Wang also gives his take on the Fed's response during times of economic crisis such as the Great Recession and the recent pandemic. Was it right of the Fed to get involved and stimulate the economy, or should they have let the economy and markets work themselves out? Is the Fed part of a greater conspiracy? Is there a man behind the curtain pulling the strings? Joseph Wang tells all! FedGuy.com Key Takeaways: 0:28 0:44 Welcome Joseph Wang, former senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve, author of Central Banking 101 1:33 1:49 Interest rates and mortgage backed securities 4:03 3:47 Quantitative easing - buying mortgages and treasuries, quantitative tightening - higher mortgage rates 7:21 7:05 Raising the borrowing rate above the inflation rate 9:33 9:17 Rents are going higher 11:36 11:20 Short term vs long term interest rates 12:55 12:39 Decreased labor supply and higher wages 14:33 14:17 China is the fastest aging country in the entire world 17:24 17:08 The Fed is absolutely political 21:37 21:21 Debt to GDP ratio and the dollar collapse 24:22 24:06 Why do other countries buy dollars? 27:53 27:37 Bloodbath in the cryptocurrency markets 29:53 29:37 Understanding the Fed - is there a man behind the curtain? 31:56 31:40 Was the Fed right to interfere during Covid and the Great Recession? 34:53 34:37 What is a shadow bank? 36:56 36:40 The story behind Long Term Capital Management 37:58 37:42 Economic outlook: be cautious with financial assets 39:36 39:20 Joseph Wang's book Central Banking 101, learn more at FedGuy.com, follow Joseph on Twitter @FedGuy12   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com  

Best-selling author Jim Rickards joins Julia La Roche on episode 21 of the podcast to discuss his outlook on why a severe recession is coming and how to prepare for it. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, and The New Case for Gold. He is the author upcoming book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. In this episode, Rickards outlines his thesis for why a severe recession is coming. According to Rickards, "we're going to wake up this winter with a severe recession, high unemployment, and a much lower stock market." He notes that the stock market is "starting to get the message," and those who believe in the Fed pivot narrative are missing two huge fallacies. Rickards also warns on the dire debt situation in the U.S., with the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 130%, well past the critical threshold. As Rickards notes, the U.S. is now "well past the point where you can borrow your way to growth, or you can borrow your way out of a debt crisis, and we're heading for a debt crisis." Elsewhere, Rickards shares his views on why inflation will turn to deflation, a "central banker's worse nightmare" and "pure poison" for debtors. He also details his outlook on the U.S. dollar and weighs in on currency fluctuations globally. 0:00 Intro 0:44 Views on the global economy 1:35 U.S. ‘almost certainly' in a recession 3:08 What's coming is a ‘very severe' recession 3:43 Supply chains breaking down 4:50 Bloated inventories, slashing prices 5:15 Fed tightening rates into weakness 5:45 The stock market is starting to get the message 6:23 The Fed pivot crowd face huge fallacies in that narrative 10:40 Bottom might not be until late 2023 11:40 We're going to wake up with winter with a severe recession, high unemployment, and a much lower stock market 12:30 Explanation of financial crises and recessions 19:30 Recession may be worse than 2008 21:01 Odds of a financial crisis are ‘uncomfortably high' 22:26 Fed raising rates to curb inflation will be effective at a ‘very high cost' 24:02 Deflation/disinflation coming down the tracks 24:46 2 types of inflation explained 29:16 The impact of debt is like an extremely powerful glacier 35:40 Thoughts on MMT 44:30 Debt does matter 45:05 Deflation is ‘pure poison' when it comes to the debt-to-GDP ratio 51:09 Thoughts on U.S. Dollar, currency fluctuations 58:46 Diversifying your portfolio

Jason Hartman invites Joseph Wang aka The Fed Guy, to the show today. Who better to talk about the inner workings of the Federal Reserve than someone who actually worked there! Joseph Wang is a former senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve and the author of Central Banking 101. Jason and Joseph tackle the biggest question on everyone's mind: will mortgage rates go higher? How much higher can they go? Why did the Fed wait so long to start quantitative tightening and raise rates? Why didn't they do it more gradually? Do you think Powell really thought inflation was transitory as he kept saying? It seems there was a political basis for him thinking that way, which filtered into policy and partially resulted in the huge inflation we're seeing right now. But what gives? If you don't raise rates in order to avoid increased unemployment, then inflation will continue. Joseph Wang also gives his take on the Fed's response during times of economic crisis such as the Great Recession and the recent pandemic. Was it right of the Fed to get involved and stimulate the economy, or should they have let the economy and markets work themselves out? Is the Fed part of a greater conspiracy? Is there a man behind the curtain pulling the strings? Joseph Wang tells all! FedGuy.com 18:50 0:43 Welcome Joseph Wang, former senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve, author of Central Banking 101 1:47 Interest rates and mortgage backed securities 4:18 Quantitative easing - buying mortgages and treasuries, quantitative tightening - higher mortgage rates 7:36 Raising the borrowing rate above the inflation rate 9:47 Rents are going higher 11:51 Short term vs long term interest rates 13:10 Decreased labor supply and higher wages 14:47 China is the fastest aging country in the entire world 17:39 The Fed is absolutely political 21:52 Debt to GDP ratio and the dollar collapse 24:37 Why do other countries buy dollars? 28:08 Bloodbath in the cryptocurrency markets 30:08 Understanding the Fed - is there a man behind the curtain? 32:11 Was the Fed right to interfere during Covid and the Great Recession? 35:08 What is a shadow bank? 37:11 The story behind Long Term Capital Management 38:13 Economic outlook: be cautious with financial assets 39:51 Joseph Wang's book Central Banking 101, learn more at FedGuy.com, follow Joseph on Twitter @FedGuy12   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Learn More: JasonHartman.com Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free course: JasonHartman.com/Deals Free White Paper on The Hartman Comparison Index™: HartmanIndex.com/white-paper Free Report on Pandemic Investing: PandemicInvesting.com Jason's TV Clips in Vimeo Free Class: CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: JasonHartman.com/Protect Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: JasonHartman.com/Ron What do Jason's clients say? JasonHartmanTestimonials.com Contact our Investment Counselors at: www.JasonHartman.com Watch, subscribe and comment on Jason's videos on his official YouTube channel: YouTube.com/c/JasonHartmanRealEstate/videos Guided Visualization for Investors: JasonHartman.com/visualization Jason's videos in his other sites: JasonHartman.com/Rumble JasonHartman.com/Bitchute JasonHartman.com/Odysee Jason Hartman's Extra YouTube Channel Jason Hartman's Real Estate News and Technology (RENT) YouTube Channel

Sam Bankman-Fried, the co-founder and CEO of FTX, joins Raoul for a fascinating conversation on financial markets and crypto. Raoul and Sam launch right into a macro discussion on the liquidity impact of higher interest rates, with an emphasis on crypto's response. They also examine the parallels to the 1998 blow-up of Long-Term Capital Management and discuss ETH 2.0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure you could survive the odds beating you.” - Larry Kersten Chris takes us back to the 90s... a decade of neon green baseball hats, Crystal Pepsi, Michael Jordan, Alanis Morrisette. And hedge fund disasters. --- *Search Categories* Business; Destructive --- *Topic Spoiler* Long Term Capital Management --- *Further Reading* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_fund https://www.amazon.com/When-Genius-Failed-Long-Term-Management/dp/0375758259 https://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/business/worldbusiness/07iht-07ltcm.15941880.html https://www.businessinsider.com/the-fall-of-long-term-capital-management-2014-7 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2003/aug/26/2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black%E2%80%93Scholes_model https://www.businessinsider.com/17-equations-that-changed-the-world-2014-3   --- *Patreon Credits* Michaela Evans, Heather Aunspach, Alyssa Ottum, David Whiteside, Jade A, amy sarah marshall, Martina Dobson, Eillie Anzilotti Jenny Lamb, Matthew Walden, Rebecca Kirsch, Pam Westergard, Ryan Quinn, Paul Sweeney, Erin Bratu, Liz T, Lianne Cole, Samantha Bayliff, Katie Larimer, Fio H, Jessica Senk, Proper Gander, Kelly Smith Upton, Nancy Carlson, Carly Westergard-Dobson, banana, Megan Blackburn, ISeeSpidersWhereThereAreNone, Instantly Joy, Athena of CaveSystem, John Grelish, Rose Kerchinske, Annika Ramen  

Ladies and gentlemen we have an economy built on smoke and mirrors, built on a house of cards. Let's not forget that currency is lent into existence and today, Jason Hartman shares exactly how much outstanding credit the United States has.  Also, house inventory levels are starting to move in an upward direction. We're still a far cry from normal market levels, but Jason gives you the latest numbers from Altos Research.   Joseph Wang, aka The Fed Guy, former senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve is back for part 2 of his interview today. Joseph gives his take on the Fed's response during times of economic crisis such as the Great Recession and the recent pandemic. Was it right of the Fed to get involved and stimulate the economy, or should they have let the economy and markets work themselves out? FedGuy.com Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:03 Introducing Joseph Wang part 2 2:00 Based on Altos Research, housing inventory is going up up up! 3:03 Download our slide decks; just go to JasonHartman.com/Slides 4:15 The 90 day average; going back to a 'normal' market 5:18 Segmenting the market by price 9:45 Raffle Winners last week and pausing the raffle- for now 11:50 An economy of smoke and mirrors Joseph Wang Interview 17:52 The Philipps curve debate 20:43 Debt to GDP ratio and the dollar collapse 23:03 Why do other countries buy dollars?  26:35 Bloodbath in the cryptocurrency markets 29:10 Understanding the Fed - is there a man behind the curtain?  31:14 Was the Fed right to interfere during Covid and the Great Recession?  33:41 What is a shadow bank?  35:55 The story behind Long Term Capital Management 37:04 Be cautious with financial assets 38:47 Joseph Wang's book Central Banking 101, Learn more at FedGuy.com follow Joseph on Twitter @FedGuy12   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Learn More: JasonHartman.com Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free course: JasonHartman.com/Deals Free White Paper on The Hartman Comparison Index™: HartmanIndex.com/white-paper Free Report on Pandemic Investing: PandemicInvesting.com Jason's TV Clips in Vimeo Free Class: CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: JasonHartman.com/Protect Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: JasonHartman.com/Ron What do Jason's clients say? JasonHartmanTestimonials.com Contact our Investment Counselors at: www.JasonHartman.com Watch, subscribe and comment on Jason's videos on his official YouTube channel: YouTube.com/c/JasonHartmanRealEstate/videos Guided Visualization for Investors: JasonHartman.com/visualization Jason's videos in his other sites: JasonHartman.com/Rumble JasonHartman.com/Bitchute JasonHartman.com/Odysee Jason Hartman's Extra YouTube Channel Jason Hartman's Real Estate News and Technology (RENT) YouTube Channel

En este episodio Luis y Walter repasan la historia de como Long Term Capital Management, un fondo que en su época, 1994-1998, contaba con las mentes más brillantes de Wall Street, colapsó de una forma que estremeció al mundo financiero y como el mundo y los mercados aprendieron la lección que ni los genios pueden evadir a los dioses del riesgo y la catástrofe.

When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by: Roger Lowenstein How to Live on 24 Hours a Day by: Arnold Bennet Burning Chrome by: William Gibson Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy by:  Richard Hanania Virtue Hoarders: The Case against the Professional Managerial Class by: Catherine Liu Mythos: The Greek Myths Retold by: Stephen Fry Heroes: Mortals and Monsters, Quests and Adventures by: Stephen Fry If You Absolutely Must…: a brief guide to writing and selling short-form argumentative nonfiction from a somewhat reluctant professional writer by: Fredrik deBoer Expeditionary Force Book 8: Armageddon by: Craig Alanson

Some people point to early 2020 as the end of capitalism in America. Some place the blame further back at the way the Great Financial Crisis was handled. In my opinion, we have to take it back one more decade and watch the collapse of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management. As the story will tell, this was the day that when free markets began to die.   When Genius Failed Book: https://amzn.to/3oJ2W6V   Get Your FREE $100 of Bitcoin: https://itrust.capital/heresy 

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time. Gary Mishuris, managing partner and chief investment officer at Boston-based Silver Ring Value Partners, joins the podcast to discuss using behavioral finance to protect against mistakes in one's own investing process. The conversation quickly moves to Archegos Capital and whether this is a contained event that can be a buying opportunity -- or whether it constitutes systemic risk for the market in general. Later we discuss financial literacy and how investment managers face a real conflict that prevents them from being true fiduciaries. Content Highlights (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp) Behavioral finance: not just to identify investment opportunities (3:42); The first step is admitting you have a problem (5:25); The Devil's Advocate Club (6:31); Archegos Capital and the blocktrade controversy (14:19); Is the Archegos Capital issue a contained event or something like the Long Term Capital Management crisis? Or perhaps a 'canary in the coalmine' type of thing? (21:40); Central banks may not have the market's back indefinitely and relying on the Fed may be (24:19); Background on the guest (32:51); The conflict preventing fund managers from being true fiduciaries (31:31); The need for fund managers to train their investors (35:20); Financial literacy and educating the broader public about investing (46:54); The name of the fund (Silver Ring) is not a Lord of the Rings reference. The story behind how the fund got its name (50:03) More Information on the Guest Website: SilverRingValuePartners.com; Behavioral Value Investor publication; Request the owner's manual discussed here (free).

Today we have Diana Henriques on the program to discuss her book, A First-Class Catastrophe: The Road to Black Monday, the Worst Day in Wall Street History. Diana is a financial journalist with really too many major awards to mention, spanning a decades long career covering some of the most impactful stories of the era—including Enron and Long-Term Capital Management. She's the author of several books, but most will recognize her mega bestseller, The Wizard of Lies: Bernie Madoff and the Death of Trust, which eventually went on to become an HBO miniseries starring Robert DeNiro. We wanted Diana on because there really hasn't been a good book about what caused the crash of ‘87, but her easy to follow narrative fills the void. Our conversation ended up ranging well beyond all that, though. Diana is delightful and just full of knowledge and experience, there is so much here to learn. You can find Diana on Twitter @dianabhenriques or her website dianabhenriques.com. Enjoy!

What I learned from reading Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street by William Poundstone.Claude Shannon was as close to a sure thing as existed [2:53]The beginning of information theory [7:11]Project X [9:09]introduction to Ed Thorpe [15:05]using math and physics to beat Las Vegas [18:03]Ed Thorp and Claude Shannon meet [20:45]testing Thorpe's Blackjack theory [26:00]The core of John Kelly's philosophy of risk can be stated without math. It is that even unlikely events must come to pass eventually. Therefore, anyone who accepts small risks of losing everything will lose everything, sooner or later. The ultimate compound return rate is acutely sensitive to fat tails. [28:23]I'd be a bum in the street with a tin cup if the markets were efficient. —Warren Buffett [44:30]how Claude Shannon begins studying the stock market [46:45]Claude Shannon and Henry Singleton [48:16]why and how Ed Thorp started investing in stocks [49:49]Thorp starts a hedge fund and starts working remotely [52:49]Ed Thorp meets Warren Buffett [54:20]An acid test of Princeton/Newport's market neutrality came in the Black Monday crash of October 19, 1987. The Dow Jones index lost 23 percent of its value in a single day. Princeton/Newport's $ 600 million portfolio shed only about $ 2 million in the crash. Princeton Newport's return for the year was an astonishing 34 percent. [59:36]the implosion of Long Term Capital Management [1:07:00]The thing you should do is the opposite of what you feel you should do. –Jim Clayton [1:09:10]A quote from 1738: A man who risks his entire fortune acts like a simpleton, however great may be the possible gain. — Daniel Bernoulli [1:13:00]Claude Shannon: A smart investor should understand where he has an edge and invest only in those opportunities. The methods Claude Shannon used to invest [1:17:10]—“I have listened to every episode released and look forward to every episode that comes out. The only criticism I would have is that after each podcast I usually want to buy the book because I am interested so my poor wallet suffers. ” — GarethBe like Gareth. Buy a book: All the books featured on Founders Podcast