BMO Views from the North

In this episode, Robert Kavcic, a Senior Economist from the BMO Economics team, joins me to share his insights on the state Canadian housing market, the fundamental drivers, regional differences, how much further prices might have to fall, and where the market is heading over the coming years. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO's OIS and cross-currency trader, joins me to discuss the Bank of Canada's decision to stay on hold this week, where monetary policy is headed for the rest of 2025, and the bigger picture for inflation and interest rates. As always, all feedback is welcome.

BMO hosted its 12th annual Government, Reserve & Asset Managers Conference last week in Toronto. I had the privilege of moderating a panel titled "Capital Flows in a Time of Stress". The panel featured Manmit Pandori, MD, Head of Tactical & Accrual Trading at BMO CM, Avi Hooper, Senior Advisor at ABP Invest, and Matthew Emde, Director General, Funds Management, Government of Canada. This episode of Views from the North is a recording of the panel that was held on the morning of May 8th.   Thank you for listening. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of BMO's Canadian institutional fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the ongoing tariff drama, last week's Bank of Canada decision to pause and whether more rate cuts are coming, how uncertainty is impacting investors, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback is welcome.  

In this episode, Manmit Pandori, head of tactical and accrual trading at BMO, joins me to discuss President Trump's tariff announcement, the financial market reaction, how the macro backdrop might unfold, and how he is managing risk in this highly volatile and uncertain world. As always, all feedback is welcome. 

In this episode, Jeff Oland, part of BMO's Government of Canada bond trading team, joins me to discuss this week's hot CPI report and whether everyone (including the Bank of Canada) has inflation wrong, how fiscal policy could evolve over the coming year, the outlook for interest rates and opportunities in the bond market. As always, all feedback is welcome. 

In this episode, Chris D'Onofrio, one of BMO's Canadian dollar swap traders, joins me to discuss the on again/off again tariff threats, swap spreads, the upcoming Bank of Canada policy announcement, and his favourite trades. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Darren Campbell, BMO's head of FICC Investor Sales Canada, joins me to discuss the wild events of the past week, how tariffs could evolve, and what it could mean for the Bank of Canada. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, the Honourable Scott Brison, BMO Vice-Chair and a former Member of Parliament, joins me to discuss Canada's political backdrop. Scott outlines the current state of the government amid President Trump's tariff threats, his experiences with some of Canada's key political figures ahead of what could be a spring election, and what's needed to improve persistently weak productivity. Following the interview with Mr. Brison, I provide a quick take on my expectations for next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, and my favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback is welcome.   Episode Timecodes: 00:00 - Introduction 01:02 - Interview with the Honourable Scott Brison 42:39 - Preview of next week's Bank of Canada's policy decision

In this episode, Andrew Wallace, part of BMO's Government of Canada bond trading team, joins me to discuss what he's focusing on in the coming year, the extreme cross-market richness of GoCs and when the tide could turn, and opportunities in the bond market. As always, all feedback is welcome.  

In this episode, Matthew Baird, part of BMO's institutional fixed income sales team in Vancouver, joins me to discuss what to expect from next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, the North American fiscal backdrop, the outlook for 2025, and our favourites trades as we head into the New Year. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Douglas Porter, BMO's Chief Economist, joins me to discuss how President-elect Trump's return to the White House could impact the Canadian economy, the outlook for the Bank of Canada, interest rates and the Canadian dollar as we head into an uncertain 2025. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO's OIS and cross-currency trader, joins me to break down this week's 50 bp rate cut from the Bank of Canada, whether more super-sized cuts should be expected, the extent of Canada-US policy divergence, and views on the market as we head toward year-end. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of BMO's Canadian institutional fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the impact of the latest GDP figures on the outlook for Bank of Canada, the coming changes to mortgage insurance regulations, investors' views on duration, why provincial spreads look attractive, and our favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Chris D'Onofrio, one of BMO's Canadian dollar swap traders, joins me to discuss last week's Bank of Canada rate cut, terminal rates and where markets might be mispricing the outlook for monetary policy, and whether swap spreads will remain under pressure. As always, all feedback is welcome.

With the kids heading back to school, while we just keep on working, I'm joined by Sam Buckley, Head of BMO's Government of Canada trading desk, to discuss what to expect at next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, his thoughts on the yield curve, and opportunities for the rest of 2024. As always, feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Darren Campbell, BMO's head of FICC Investor Sales Canada, joins me to discuss the path for the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve, where terminal might be and how that could impact the yield curve, and provincial credit spreads. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of BMO's Canadian institutional fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the surprisingly firm May inflation figures, the impact on the Bank of Canada, and the global financial market backdrop. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO's OIS and cross-currency traders, joins me to discuss last week's Bank of Canada 25 bp rate cut, the potential extent of BoC/Fed divergence and how that could impact the C$, and cross-currency market dynamics and opportunities. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Chris D'Onofrio, one of BMO's Canadian dollar swap traders, joins me to discuss our expectations for the June Bank of Canada policy announcement, the takeaways from our recent marketing trip to London, and structural flows that continue to drive the rates market. As always, all feedback is welcome.  

In a first for Views from the North, I had the pleasure of speaking with TJ Sutter, Co-Head & Macro Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income, at CCL Investment Management. We discuss his process when evaluating markets, views on the state of the economy and markets, and where potential opportunities might lie. As always, all feedback is welcome.  

This week Robert Kavcic, a Senior Economist from the BMO Economics team, Fred Nastos, Head of Government Spread Trading and Adam Whitlam from our Canada institutional sales desk, join me to share their thoughts on the provincial & federal budgets, the potential impact of policy measures on markets, how the Bank of Canada outlook changes, and their latest market insights. As always, all feedback is welcome.  

In this episode, Jeff Oland, part of BMO's Government of Canada bond trading team, joins me to discuss next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, the recent sell off in rates, broader economic backdrop, and uncertainty weighing on markets. As always, all feedback is welcome.  

In this episode, Darren Campbell, BMO's head of FICC investor sales Canada, joins me to discuss the lack of conviction keeping the rates market constrained, last week's Bank of Canada policy decision, the ramifications from provincial budget season, and how RRBs aren't dead. As always, all feedback is welcome.  

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of BMO's Canadian institutional fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the current state of the rates market following the wild swings in recent weeks, his views on credit markets, potentially impactful market events over the next month and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode Robert Kavcic, a Senior Economist from the BMO Economics team, joins me to share his insights on the outlook for the Canadian housing market, reaction to last week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, and his thoughts on the upcoming provincial budget season. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO's OIS and cross-currency traders, joins me to discuss next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, how this week's inflation and Business Outlook Survey impact policymakers, when the first cut might come, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Jeff Oland, part of BMO's Government of Canada bond trading team, joins me to discuss next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, the December index extensions, what to look for in 2024, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Darren Campbell, BMO's head of FICC investor sales Canada, joins me to discuss the ongoing volatility in fixed income markets, what risk assets are telling us, whether central bank are really done with hikes and his favourite trade ideas as we head into calendar year end. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Doug Porter, BMO's Chief Economist, joins me to discuss last week's Bank of Canada decision to stay on hold, his upcoming piece on Canadian productivity, along with the potential financial implications. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO's OIS and cross-currency trader, joins me to discuss next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement and the likely end of rate hikes, the macro backdrop and why the economic outlook is very subdued. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of the Toronto-based fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the carnage in the rates market, my takeaways from visits to NYC and Tokyo, the latest twist in the CMB saga and the outlook for central banks & interest rates. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Jeff Oland, part of BMO's Government of Canada bond trading team, joins me for the first time to discuss next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, the impact of fiscal policy, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Dave Moore, part of BMO's London-based fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss last week's Bank of Canada rate hike, global inflation trends, and whether the recent data moves the needle for central banks to tone down their hawkishness, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of the Toronto-based fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the outlook for next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, the recent back up in interest rates, whether provincial spreads have tightened too far, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Sam Buckley, Head of BMO's Government of Canada trading desk, joins me to discuss the Bank of Canada's latest rate hike and how much more we can expect, the extreme inversion in the Canadian yield curve, how the second half of the year could evolve and his favourite trade ideas. As always, feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO's OIS and cross-currency trader, joins me to discuss next week's Bank of Canada meeting and whether we should be expecting a rate hike, some big picture macro thoughts, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Darren Campbell, BMO's head of FICC investor sales Canada, joins me from to discuss the takeaways from our Government, Reserve & Asset Managers Conference, what's next for the Bank of Canada, market trends heading into the June 1 coupon flows & index extension, and whether it's time to put the steepener on. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Chris D'Onofrio, a trader on BMO's Canadian swap trading desk, joins me to discuss the outlook for monetary policy after the recent Bank of Canada minutes, swap spreads, an update on the shift from CDOR to CORRA, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Robert Kavcic, a Senior Economist from the BMO Economics team, joins me to share his insights on whether the Canadian housing market has bottomed, what we should expect from the Bank of Canada next week, and his thoughts following provincial budget season. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Fred Nastos, Head of Canadian Government Spread Trading, and Trina Reid, Head of CMB Mortgage Aggregation Funding, join me to discuss the Federal Government's announcement that they will be reviewing the Canada Mortgage Bond program with an eye toward folding it into regular Government of Canada borrowing. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Furaz Ahmad, who covers the financial sector as part of BMO's corporate debt strategy team, joins me to unpack the stress on the global financial system, which is driving market volatility, and assess any potential impact on Canada. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of the Toronto-based fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the outlook for next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, the latest swings in the data, whether provincial spreads have tightened too far, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO's OIS and cross-currency trader, joins me to discuss last week's Bank of Canada 25 bp rate hike, their conditional pause, how Wednesday's FOMC decision impacts the BoC, his thoughts on rates, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback welcome.

This week, Sam Buckley, Head of BMO's Government of Canada trading desk, joins me to discuss next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, his views on the vicious rally to start the year, where Canadian rates and the curve are headed, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Chris D'Onofrio, a recent addition to BMO's Canada swap trading desk, joins me to discuss next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, where he sees rates and the curve heading, the coming shift to CORRA and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Robert Kavcic, a senior economist from the BMO Economics team and, Jordan Sugar, BMO's provincial bond trader, join me to discuss the Provincial landscape. We cover the fundamental backdrop following the fall fiscal updates, and how the provincial bond market has been trading. Robert reveals his favourite provinces, and Jordan provides his top trade ideas with the early December index extension and coupon payments on deck. As always, all feedback welcome.

This week, Dave Moore, who recently moved back to London to join the fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the reaction to last week's surprisingly smaller Bank of Canada rate hike among European-based investors, his views on volatility, Canada-US divergence, and favorite trade ideas. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Adam Whitlam, part of the Toronto-based fixed income sales team, joins me to discuss the outlook for next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, the risks to the economy, as well as his views on duration, provincial spreads and the market backdrop heading into bank year end. As always, all feedback welcome.

In this episode, Joel Prussky, BMO's OIS and cross-currency trader, joins me to discuss last week's Bank of Canada 75 bp rate hike, whether he's still bearish on duration, the outlook for CAN/US yield spreads, and his favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback is welcome.

In this episode, Sam Buckley, BMO's head of Canada rates trading, and, Darren Campbell, from BMO's rates sales desk, join me to discuss next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement, what's next for rates, where the Canada curve is heading, and their favourite trade ideas. As always, all feedback is welcome.