Podcasts about senior economist

Ralph speaks to economist Dean Baker about the hypocrisies behind the supposed Social Security shortfall and Republicans' "waste, fraud, and abuse" panic. Then, Ralph talks to journalist and ocean activist David Helvarg about his new book: Forest of the Sea: The Remarkable Life and Imperiled Future of Kelp.Dean Baker is a Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, where he authors “Beat the Press,” his regular commentary on economic reporting. He has written several books, including Getting Back to Full Employment: A Better Bargain for Working People, The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive, False Profits: Recovering from the Bubble Economy, and The Conservative Nanny State: How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer.People will hear big numbers. They'll hear “$300 billion” and they'll go “Oh my God, that's a lot of money. That's money out of my pocket. It's causing the government deficit,” whatever. That's because they haven't given it any context…If we could, in any conceivable world, afford to pay $500 billion to increase the military budget, surely we can afford to pay $300 billion to ensure that everyone gets their Social Security benefits. It's just a case of: put it in context. I'm not going to say it's a small number. It isn't. But it's smaller— $300 billion is smaller than $500 billion, and that's really not a disputable point.Dean BakerWhere [DOGE] had the biggest consequences is with foreign aid. [Musk] just got a big kick out of that— USAID, he just shut it down. He boasted about that. He goes, “Last weekend I fed USAID into the wood chipper.” That's almost verbatim what he said. Now, what this meant was that you have people— and you could find waste in that program just like any other program, but this is a program that provided millions of people with medicine, with nutrition, with healthcare. And suddenly they couldn't get it…And Elon Musk was boasting that he killed that program. That's great. But millions of people, I mean, thankfully, I don't think it's millions yet, but if that program doesn't get restarted or funded somewhere else, you're going to see millions of people lose their lives.Dean BakerSo we're saying we have people on Medicaid that are committing fraud? No one gets a check from Medicaid. What would that even mean? Like, you signed up for Medicaid and you weren't eligible, so that would mean that they might be making a payment to a doctor or hospital that they don't actually have to make because you didn't qualify? I'm sure that happens sometimes but it's not like someone's living high on the hog because they were able to get Medicaid to pay for their doctor's visit when it actually shouldn't have.Dean BakerDavid Helvarg is a journalist and ocean activist. He is the founder and executive director of Blue Frontier, an ocean policy and media group, and producer of Rising Tide: The Ocean Podcast. He has produced more than 40 documentaries for media outlets, including PBS and the Discovery Channel. And he has written several books, including Blue Frontier, The War Against the Greens, and Forest of the Sea: The Remarkable Life and Imperiled Future of Kelp.I've been pushing with my colleagues in journalism the idea of the “blue beat.” The only resource in the ocean not fully exploited at this point is good investigative reporting and narrative storytelling. Because people don't connect with it, a lot of people think the environment ends at the shoreline. And that's really where 95% of the living space on the planet begins.David HelvargPeople at least know that corals are in trouble and they have some sense of what a coral reef is. People don't know that the planet has this other forest crisis—that kelp forests cover an area larger than the Amazon basin, and they're also being impacted by these marine heat waves that are growing every year. And as you add more heat to the system, it gets more energetic, which is why we have more and more extreme storms. I covered Katrina in 2005. I thought that would be a turning point (we had 1,800 people killed and a million environmental refugees). But the propaganda by the oil and gas industry is such that we keep having these disasters from a warming ocean planet, we see the melting of the Arctic ice, and instead of an alarm bell, it became a dinner bell for all the shipping industries and people who want to exploit the oil and gas in the increasingly open Arctic waters. So we're in this crisis point. I'm more frustrated than despairing because we know what the solutions are. It's creating the political will to enact them.David HelvargWhen I started Blue Frontier 20 years ago, the main threats were overfishing and pollution—oil, chemical, plastic, nutrient pollution. Today, that's being overwhelmed by these marine heat waves.David HelvargNews 6/26/26* Our top story this week comes to us from New York City, where democratic socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani has pulled off a stunning hat trick, with all three candidates for Congress endorsed by the Mayor winning their primaries on Tuesday. The most surprising victory is that of Darializa Avila Chevalier, who ousted the powerful incumbent Congressman Adriano Espaillat, head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, in New York's 13th congressional district. This primary had turned ugly, with Espaillat's campaign seeking to weaponize anti-Haitian racism in the Dominican community against Avila Chevalier, per the Haitian Times, despite the fact that she is not in fact Haitian. Impressive in another way is the victory of UAW organizer and New York State Assemblywoman Claire Valdez in New York's 7th district. Much has been made of this race being a proxy battle between Mamdani and his onetime supporter, retiring Congresswoman Nydia Velazquez, who backed her protégé, Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso to succeed her in this seat. Reynoso enjoyed the support of a broad range of New York elected officials – including Velazquez along with New York Attorney General Letitia James, Congressman Jerrold Nadler, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, and a broad range of unions and civil society groups, most notably the Working Families Party – but was absolutely trounced by Valdez, who won by over 20 points with the support of Mamdani and NYC-DSA. Meanwhile, in the 10th district, Brad Lander won by an even greater margin, outrunning incumbent Congressman Dan Goldman by over 30 points while running on a pro-Palestine platform in the most Jewish congressional district in America. These victories send a clear signal to the sclerotic, ossified leadership of the Democratic Party. The only question now is will they listen.* Beyond the congressional races, DSA won a remarkable number of races at the state level. According to Democratic Left, DSA will send as many as seven new legislators to Albany this cycle, for a total of “four state senators and 11 or 12 members of the state assembly.” As the magazine notes, this means that the “2027-2028 socialist bloc in Albany will be the second largest in a state legislature in U.S. history…behind 20 members in Wisconsin in 1919 and ahead of 14 members in Wisconsin in 1911.” Within New York City, DSA endorsed candidates won seven out of eight races for seats in the state legislature, per NYC-DSA. All told, it was a thunderous victory for the left in New York and raises the clout of Zohran and his compatriots to dizzying heights.* Meanwhile, in Washington DC, NOTUS reports the local DSA has exploded in membership, adding nearly 1,000 new members since this time last year. This growing bloc flexed its political muscle in the recent Democratic primaries, electing DSA members Janeese Lewis George for Mayor and Aparna Raj for the Ward 1 seat on the DC Council, as well as Oye Owolewa for an at-large seat. Axios notes that they are already eying, “two more openings — to fill Lewis George's Ward 4 seat and the at-large seat of Congress-bound Robert White.” If these votes go in DSA's favor, Lewis George could assume the mayoralty with a progressive majority of seven out of 13 members on the Council. Since her victory last Tuesday, Lewis George has emphasized her plan to lower utility costs through “expanding government solar,” and “balcony solar” for apartment tenants, optimizing efficiency at local government agencies and maximizing federal housing grants.* In Maryland, the results for DSA and progressives more generally were not quite so decisive but the left notched key victories nonetheless. DSA endorsed candidate McKayla Wilkes won her primary for the Charles County Commission and incumbent State Delegate Gabriel Acevero won reelection to his seat. Senators Dalya Attar and Nancy King, both centrist incumbents, lost to progressive challengers, per Maryland Matters. Will Jawando in Montgomery County won the County Executive position with broad support from the Maryland political establishment and progressives, while Maryland Senate Majority Leader Bill Ferguson fended off his first real challenge in years only after a last minute pledge to reverse his position on Maryland congressional redistricting. However, in the 5th congressional district, Steny Hoyer protégé and “AIPAC-backed” Adrian Boafo won the primary to succeed his mentor in Congress. According to the Jerusalem Post, “AIPAC poured $5.7 million into his campaign through its super PAC.” Former Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn came in a distant third place, despite scoring the endorsement of Nancy Pelosi. In short, the left has more work to do in order to build a political machine in Maryland as they have in New York and DC.* The next major contest between the factions of the party will occur next week in Colorado, where Melat Kiros, a DSA-backed progressive challenger born in 1997, is taking on Congresswoman Diana DeGette, who first took office that same year, per Zeteo. According to a poll conducted on behalf of the Kiros-aligned Justice Democrats, she leads DeGette by five points and she has now won the endorsement of Senator Bernie Sanders. Senator and former Governor John Hickenlooper is also facing a progressive primary challenge from State Senator Julie Gonzales and, according to the polls, he holds but a single digit lead, the Coloradan reports. We will be watching both of these races closely.* Meanwhile in Congress, the Senate has passed a new resolution on Iran, this time directing Trump to “remove U.S. armed forces from hostilities against Iran unless explicitly authorized by Congress, other than to defend America, an ally or partner from ‘imminent attack,'” according to the Wall Street Journal. The Journal notes that while the resolution is nonbinding, it was previously passed by the House, marking “the first time both chambers of Congress have passed the same measure to curb” presidential power to wage war on the Islamic Republic. The resolution passed 50-48, with the support of Republican Senators Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul. Senators Mitch McConnell and Dave McCormick were absent, and Senator John Fetterman again broke ranks with the Democrats to vote no.* Turning from the Senate floor to the shop floor, the United Auto Workers (UAW) concluded their 39th Constitutional Convention last week, with a momentous vote to divest the union's investments from Israel bonds. UAW's divestment decision is the latest victory in the campaign to disentangle the finances of American organized labor from the state of Israel, following the United Electrical Workers (UE) in 2015 and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) in 2023. UAW members also heard from Abdul El-Sayed, the candidate the union has endorsed in the Michigan Senate race. This contentious campaign will not be over until August, but El-Sayed, occupying the progressive lane, has moved into the lead and appears to be consolidating his lead, winning the endorsement of Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen just this week, per the Traverse City Record-Eagle. Van Hollen himself has recently begun hinting that he may seek higher office, recently telling NOTUS that he is “kicking the tires” on a 2028 presidential bid.* Turning to foreign affairs, this week saw the fall of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Starmer, a centrist who was elected Labour Party leader in 2020 following the ouster of leftist Jeremy Corbyn, has held the post of Prime Minister since 2024 when Labour won an historic landslide. Since then however, his personal approval rating and that of the party has cratered, creating space for the rise of the far-right Reform UK party. The BBC reports Starmer will remain in his post until a new leader is chosen from within the party, with the presumptive successor being MP Andy Burnham who recently beat back a challenge in his own seat by a Reform candidate by a large margin. Starmer is now set to be the shortest serving Labour PM in British history, while Burnham is set to become the UK's seventh Prime Minister in the last ten years, both indications of the precariousness of the post-Brexit British political order.* Our final two stories come to us from Latin America. First, in Bolivia, the country's union confederation has maintained a general strike against the right-wing government of Rodrigo Paz for nearly two months over his administration's initiatives to privatize government services and rescind the land reform program instituted over the last several decades of rule by the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). On June 19th, journalist Ollie Vargas reported that the government had blinked and signed an agreement to withdraw these plans in exchange for the unions ending the general strike. However, Vargas notes that “most affiliated unions state that they want to maintain strike until [the Paz government] resigns.”* Finally, in Colombia, the right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella emerged victorious from Sunday's runoff presidential election, defeating leftist Ivan Cepeda, the handpicked successor of sitting President Gustavo Petro, by less than one percentage point. In the immediate wake of the election, President Petro “alleged that Israel interfered” in the election, citing “irregularities in the country's vote counting process and calling for a full audit and recount,” per Drop Site News. However, by Wednesday, Cepeda himself formally conceded, framing his decision to do so as “an act of democratic responsibility, to contribute to harmony, peace and dialogue among Colombians,” Al Jazeera reports. As one of his first acts, Abelardo de la Espriella has committed to reestablishing diplomatic relations with Israel, which had been severed under President Petro.This has been Francesco DeSantis, with In Case You Haven't Heard. Get full access to Ralph Nader Radio Hour at www.ralphnaderradiohour.com/subscribe

First-time homebuyers may get short windows of relief, but our co-head of Securitized Products Research James Egan and Senior Economist and Strategist in Morgan Stanley's Private Wealth Management Sarah Wolfe say the bigger story is a housing market resetting around a higher bar to entry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Housing Strategist and Co-Head of Securitized Products Strategy.Sarah Wolfe: And I'm Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist and Strategist within Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.James Egan: And today, why first-time homebuyers are facing a tougher path to ownership.It's Tuesday, June 23rd at 10am in New York.Buying a first-time home has always been a big step, but for a growing number of first-time buyers today, the goal can really seem insurmountable.Mortgage rates might be down from where they were in the second half of 2023, but they're significantly higher than they were for the several years before that. Monthly payments have roughly doubled for a median-priced home. And my colleague Jay Bacow and I have talked several times on this podcast about how many homeowners feel like they're locked into those lower rates.And they're staying put because they just don't want to give up a two or three-handle mortgage rate for something that has a six in front of it. But Sarah, as we know, this is bigger than just first-time buyers. Now, they often start the housing transaction chain, and when they can't buy, current owners may not be able to sell and trade up.That slows turnover across the market, and it also reduces activity tied to housing – from mortgages and renovations to moving and furniture. And it can keep would-be buyers renting for longer, which adds pressure to rental demand.So, how do you see this situation? Is this just another affordability squeeze, or has the housing market reset to a higher barrier to entry?Sarah Wolfe: I do think that we're on the upper bound of affordability pressures. This is about as bad as it's going to get. But as we discussed in our recent publication of The Economy Explained, unfortunately, we do think that the housing market is resetting at a structurally higher barrier to entry. There's a lot of reasons for that.The first is higher interest rates. Yes, mortgage rates are sitting around 6.5 percent, and they should come down from here, but maybe not better than 5.5 percent, right, in an optimistic scenario. The second is demographic pressures. Remember, we have this tremendous aging population of baby boomers. All of their children are now entering their prime home-buying years, so there's a lot of demand for ownership.The third and fourth ones are land regulation and permitting, which is at the state and local level, really hard to change. And the last one is climate risk. It's just raising insurance pricing and making it much more difficult to buy a home.So overall, we see a world where, yes, mortgage rates come down a bit, improve affordability marginally, but we think neutral and other interest rates at the longer end of the curve are going to be higher than the post-financial crisis period. And what we're going to see is that those forces are going to widen the divide between who can own a home and who cannot. And who gains from that wealth accumulation and who does not.James Egan: Right. So now, you mentioned where mortgage rates are today, above that 6 percent rate. Rates did briefly – in February, we got below 6 percent before they bounced back up here. Why did that short-lived relief matter so much?Sarah Wolfe: I think that short-lived relief showed us that moves in the mortgage rate make a difference, but things are so unaffordable that it didn't make that much of a difference.So, the dip below 6 percent was very exciting. It happened this past February. It was the first time that mortgage rates fell below 6 percent since 2022, and we saw a few things happen. First, it lowered the monthly payment for first-time homebuyers from about two point two thousand dollars a month to one point nine thousand.So makes a bit of a difference. And it lowered the share of income that goes towards monthly mortgage payments from about 26 percent of income to 22 percent, from peak to trough. So, that is a notable improvement. But what we saw in the new home sales data and the existing home sales data, that it did not drive people back into the housing market.I want to turn it back to you though, Jim, because you've actually done a lot of interesting work on this. And how this change in mortgage rates has changed the monthly cost that people have to pay for a median-priced home. Can you tell us a little bit more?James Egan: Sure. So, we talk about the lock-in effect a lot, and it's kind of easy to point to: Well, there are a lot of people with mortgage rates that are around 3 percent or 3.5 percent, and the prevailing rate's at 6 percent, and that's a lot higher, so they're locked in.But when we look at the actual numbers in terms of what we're asking a homeowner to do – to list their home for sale and move to another home today, pay off that existing mortgage, take out a new one. When you take into account how much higher home prices are today…You bought a home in 2016, for instance, right? Let's assume you refinanced in 2020 or 2021 if you still live there, right? Most homeowners did. So, you've actually taken your monthly payment, and it is lower today than it was when you bought your home in 2016. If we assume that your income has risen alongside just median household income over that time period, your monthly payment as a share of your income today is probably sub 8 percent.If you bought over the past three years, your monthly payment is a share of your income. You mentioned some numbers earlier. It's low to mid 20 percent. From a dollar amount perspective, if you were to pay off that 2016 mortgage, as an example, and take out one today, your payment is probably [$]13[00] or $1400 higher. It's like a 200 percent increase. That's very difficult economically for a lot of households, and that's the kind of physical manifestation of that lock-in effect.Now, Sarah, given this significant change in housing math, what does that mean for who is actually able to buy in this market?Sarah Wolfe: It's making who's able to buy into the market a lot more selective. So, what we're seeing is that first-time home buyers today are actually not meaningfully older. They're still about 36 years old, but they are a much more selective group financially. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York put out a great analysis on this recently, and they basically found that the first-time home buyer profile today is taking out a mortgage that's nearly $350,000, compared to $240,000 in 2019 and $200,000, a decade ago. So, significant increase in mortgage balances.At the same time, credit standards have tightened significantly, so that average credit score to get a mortgage has risen quite a bit over the last 5 to 10 years. And what this is doing is it's shifting who can buy and also where they can buy. So, we're seeing higher-quality home buyers moving to lower-income zip codes. So, buying cheaper homes in lower-income metro areas, and so it's wealthier buyers in lower-income areas.And that's the really big shift that we're seeing. It's a demand resorting story. And what we're also seeing, and we hear this a lot when we talk to our financial advisors and their clients, is that family is increasingly helping their other family members put that down payment down; in particular, parents helping their children buy that first home.So, we're seeing that first-time buyers may be feeling this pressure, right, when it comes to rates. How much of this affordability issue, though, is being driven by the locked-in effect specifically?James Egan: So, look, it's clearly playing a role. We just talked about some of the math behind that. But then when you look at what that means on a nationwide basis when it comes to inventory, when it comes to so many other aspects of this, that homeowner who's unwilling to give up that lower mortgage rate, that lower payment, right, their homes are off the market.Existing inventories for sale, they've picked up from historic lows in 2023, but they're still very, very low on a long-run basis. The fewer homes there are for sale, the more upward pressure or the absence of downward pressure that's going to put on home prices, right?We saw affordability plummet in 2022 and 2023 when rates backed up. We saw existing home sales really, really come down as a result. But home prices remained at record highs. They continued to set new record highs. For home prices to actually come down, right, you need people who are willing to sell at lower home prices.Sarah, you just mentioned that lending standards themselves remain tight.Sarah Wolfe: Mm-hmm.James Egan: Those forced sales, those tend to be distressed transactions. We don't see that distress in the market providing the inventory and the motivated inventory to lead to softer home prices. So, it's really that lack of inventory which we think is in large part driven by the lock-in effect that's kept home prices. And as a result, that piece of the affordability equation kind of stuck at these higher levels.Sarah Wolfe: I mean, it's really this vicious cycle, the locked-in effect making it difficult for entry-level buyers to get into the market – and then fewer existing homeowners sell or trade up or relocate. So, on and on it goes.Are there broader implications of this freeze?James Egan: Right. So, we just talked about what that means from an inventory perspective. And then if you think about affordability remaining challenged, lending standards themselves remaining tight, inventory remaining as low as it is, you could argue that we're at one of the more difficult times that we've seen for renters to exit rentership and step into homeownership.Now, there's a lot of different things that drive rent growth, and the fact that you have a stuck renter is just one of them. The other side of that equation can be the supply of rental units, right? So that's just a piece of the equation.But those are some of the externalities that we think about when it comes to how the tightness of the housing market – what the lock-in effect and what affordability is doing there. But outside of the housing market, Sarah, the wider economy, like how do these housing costs play a role there?Sarah Wolfe: Massive effect. Some of the work that we've done shows that housing affordability is the number one driver pushing down fertility rates in America. The number one driver. Above childcare costs, above finding a partner, finding a good job. It's housing affordability. So, you could see how that could pretty significantly ripple through the broader economy.But there's other components, right? So, as we discussed earlier, it's driving migration from unaffordable areas to more affordable regions. That has significant implications. And then putting my consumer economist hat on, as we discussed earlier in the podcast, when people buy a home, they tie themselves to that home. They spend money on couches, on beds, on TVs, right? Durable goods. And if we're going to have more people as renters for longer, that's going to expand the services economy at the expense of the goods economy.All right. Let's take a step back and think about where this is all going. It hasn't been a very optimistic conversation. Jim, what is the outlook for affordability in your view? Do we get anywhere back to the post-financial crisis period or even the pre-financial crisis period?James Egan: When it comes to the outlook for mortgage rates, the outlook for affordability, the outlook for the U.S. housing market – look, we just, throughout Morgan Stanley Research and Strategy, published our 2026 major outlook. From now through the end of 2027, we don't have conventional mortgage rates getting below 6 percent.We do have affordability improving on the margins. We have income growth exceeding home price appreciation that makes it a little bit better, but that doesn't get us back to the post-GFC affordability era, which was very, very affordable. Looking back over the past several decades, it gets us closer to where we were pre-GFC, not all the way back there.But when we think about how that ripples through the housing market and how we think about that evolving from here, look, we do think that the state of mortgage credit availability means there will be a lack of distress. We think that while affordability itself may be challenged and inventories may be low, there is some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where mortgage rates are or affordability is.We think we found that level. We think there's support for home sales at these current levels, and that combination of support for home sales, lack of inventory, means that home prices, very little room for them to grow from here. But we think they're going to be pretty supported.So, from a housing market perspective, at a ten-thousand-foot view, we're calling it 1-2 percent growth in sales, in home prices, well-supported. But the affordability outlook that we've outlined throughout this podcast – challenged to see a lot of acceleration.Now, when we pull it back to the first-time home buyer, based on our conversation, it seems that the key question is becoming less about when to buy, more about who can still afford to enter the market.But Sarah, it's really been great talking with you about the housing market today.Sarah Wolfe: It was great speaking with you, Jim.James Egan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today. ***Sarah Wolfe is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

Confidence in the employment market is at an all-time low, with the Iran war still rippling through the economy. A Westpac-McDermott Miller survey for the June quarter reveals confidence fell for public and private sector employees. A net 60 percent of respondents believe it's hard to find a job, up from 46 percent last quarter. Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon says employment confidence has been weak over the past five years, and this data represents another step backwards. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Thursday's show, we visit with the Co-Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh about information available for the upcoming elections in Collier and Lee Counties. Cato Institute Director of Health Policy Studies Michael Cannon and I discuss poor quality of care provided by some long-term care providers and what can be done about it. We also visit Senior Economist with CEI Ryan Young about the economy, yesterday's Fed meeting, employment, and inflation. We have terrific a terrific guest for Friday's show, author and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the wording and language of the Declaration of Independence. We visit with the Executive Director of Naples Pathways Coalition Michelle Avola about safety for pedestrians and cyclists on our streets. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about the big cases to be announced by the Supreme Court. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about the need for proof of citizenship to vote in Federal elections. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, and Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Data due out today is expected to show our economy was continuing to recover before the fuel crisis really began to bite. Stats NZ is releasing GDP figures for the March quarter at 10.45. It's expected to show the economy grew between 0.7 and 1% between January and March, but it's likely to have contracted again between April and June. Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon told Andrew Dickens normally this is a phase in which we'd be able to get some strong growth, but there are still some headwinds against the economy. He says we still had interest rate relief over the past few years, but it's more a case of the Reserve Bank taking its foot off the break, but not stomping on the accelerator to get the economy going again. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The housing market is always changing, but today's frequent shifts are by forces beyond real estate. Oil prices, inflation and broader economic uncertainty are impacting Canadian housing markets and buyer sentiment in real time, with real-world effects for buyers, sellers and communities across the country. In response to these everchanging conditions, CREA adjusted its 2026-2027 forecast earlier this year.On this episode of REAL TIME, CREA's Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart joins host Shaun Majumder to discuss what's been happening in Canadian housing markets over the last year, what we're seeing right now, and what could be coming down the pike.

This episode was recorded Tuesday, June 9th, before the current 'deal' was floated. Given world events, we decided to post this episode immediately as a special release, and deal or not, this conversation is an excellent overview of the issues and stakes of this evolving situation. In a media environment constantly contradicting itself, with every side proclaiming the advantage for themselves, the reality of what's happening in the Middle East gets lost amidst the day-to-day headlines. But for analysts who have been monitoring the underlying trends of the geopolitical gameboard for years, the direction is clear: the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz will likely not fully resolve within the next few months. If we truly accept the consequences of this, how will our global economy – built on interconnected supply chains and cheap energy – adapt to a geopolitical order fracturing before our eyes?  In this episode, Nate is joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for an unflinching analysis of the Hormuz crisis and the fundamental principles pointing toward the Strait's closure for several more months. Michael walks through multiple scenarios – a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), NATO military action, Chinese intervention behind the scenes – and explains why none of them offer an easy exit. The conversation expands to explore what this crisis means for the future of global energy trade, the emergence of rival production blocs, the collapse of demand-side macroeconomics, and the surprising potential for a more equitable world to emerge from the chaos. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or mostly closed into September, which countries hit their breaking point first, and will the order in which they break fundamentally change the balance of geopolitical power? How does everyday life change when price signals stop working and access is defined by availability rather than cost? And if this crisis truly accelerates the fracturing of our hyper-connected, globalized world into polarized blocs of energy and production, how might the disruption, for better or worse, shake up nearly a century of the macroeconomic theory that has shaped every part of our lives?  (Conversation recorded on June 9th, 2026)   About Michael Every: Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank with over two decades of experience. He analyzes major financial developments and contributes to the bank's various economic research publications. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners  

Stephen Grootes speaks to Luca Moneta, Senior Economist for Emerging Markets at Allianz Trade,about the economic impact of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and why its multibillion-dollar boost to North America will be significant but ultimately short-lived, with tourism and hospitality sectors emerging as the biggest winners. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

  A recent study from Tulane University is taking an honest look at American life. Holly and Greg are joined by Robert Spendlove, Senior Economist at Zions Bank, and Shawn Teigan, President of the Utah Foundation, to break down the results. 

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Thursday's show, we visit with the Co-Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh about the status of Artificial Intelligence legislation in Florida. Cato Institute Director of Health Policy Studies Michael Cannon and I discuss the outbreak if measles and the importance of the measles vaccine. We also visit Senior Economist with CEI Ryan Young about the conflict in Iran, inflation, interest rates, and the prices of precious metals. We also visit with the President of Accuracy in Media Adam Guillette about concerns about the proposed candidate to become the next President of the University of Florida, Stuart Bell. We have terrific a terrific guest for Friday's show, author and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the right to free speech as well as the right to non-discrimination. We visit with Assistant Director of State Shield Action about the significance of Xi's visit to North Korea. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about the California elections as well as big cases to be announced by the Supreme Court. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about the cooling rhetoric about climate change. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, and Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Public spending is growing faster than the sustainable growth rate of the economy, according to the latest assessment by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. To discuss the assessment findings was Niall Conroy, Senior Economist, IFAC.

Public spending is growing faster than the sustainable growth rate of the economy, according to the latest assessment by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. To discuss the assessment findings was Niall Conroy, Senior Economist, IFAC.

The global AI investment boom is gathering pace, with OpenAI signalling its intention to eventually join rivals Anthropic and SpaceX on the US sharemarket, potentially fuelling another wave of capital raising worth hundreds of billions of dollars across the industry. SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves speaks with Loftus Peak Chief Investment Officer Alex Pollak about what the AI listing race means for investors, while Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners breaks down a softer day on the ASX after the long weekend. Plus, Matthew Hassan, Senior Economist at Westpac, explains why Australians are turning away from property as the wisest place for savings and what weakening consumer sentiment could mean for the economy.

The global AI investment boom is gathering pace, with OpenAI signalling its intention to eventually join rivals Anthropic and SpaceX on the US sharemarket, potentially fuelling another wave of capital raising worth hundreds of billions of dollars across the industry. SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves speaks with Loftus Peak Chief Investment Officer Alex Pollak about what the AI listing race means for investors, while Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners breaks down a softer day on the ASX after the long weekend. Plus, Matthew Hassan, Senior Economist at Westpac, explains why Australians are turning away from property as the wisest place for savings and what weakening consumer sentiment could mean for the economy.

In dieser Episode des SAATKORN Podcasts spreche ich mit Christina Langer, Senior Economist bei StepStone und wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiterin am ifo Institut. Nach ihrer Forschungstätigkeit am Stanford Digital Economy Lab verbindet Christina heute wissenschaftliche Arbeitsmarktforschung mit den Echtzeit-Arbeitsmarktdaten von StepStone.

Neil Dutta is Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research (renMac). He leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analysing the US economy, the Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. He is considered a market economist, looking at the economic data and trying to highlight the risks to the consensus as he sees them.  Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada. In this podcast, we discuss: Neil's Wall Street "Origin Story" The Four Pillars of Economic Analysis The Real Income Squeeze AI, RSUs, and State Tax Revenues Pervasive Optimism and Reflexivity Risk The Fed's "Path of Least Resistance" The Warsh Nomination and Forward Guidance Productivity Boom or Demand Story? AI's Wealth Effect Beyond Accounting The 2027 Fiscal Headwind Substack vs. Institutional Research

Is the U.S. economy heading toward stability, or just navigating a new kind of volatility?In this episode of Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution, Kevin Brown and Tom Burton are joined by Taylor St. Germain, Senior Economist at ITR Economics, to unpack the forces reshaping wholesale distribution and manufacturing. From interest rate uncertainty and tariff refund chaos to AI adoption gaps and “profitless prosperity,” this conversation connects macroeconomic signals directly to distributor margin strategy, capital investment decisions, and long-term growth planning.What You'll Learn:Why the current economy feels like a “tale of two economies”, and how income distribution impacts demand across B2B marketsWhat the Federal Reserve is really watching (core inflation vs. trimmed mean metrics) and how rate decisions could affect CapEx, M&A, and working capitalHow tariff policy, Section 301 and 232 rulings, and refund uncertainty are influencing distributor pricing strategy and customer relationshipsWhat “profitless prosperity” means for 2026 and 2027, and how to protect margins during growth at a higher costWhy most AI initiatives in wholesale distribution are still efficiency plays—and what separates hype from scalable, repeatable AI-driven business processesEpisode Highlights:03:30 – Inside ITR Economics: forecasting accuracy, leading indicators, and preparing for downturns11:45 – May jobs report surprises: what strong hiring means for inflation and rate decisions14:20 – Interest rate outlook: hold, cut, or increase—and why energy prices complicate the Fed's move30:18 – Tariff escalation, Section 301 and 232 policies, and the ripple effect across distributors41:03 – Tariff refunds: unintended consequences for margins, pricing transparency, and customer trust58:26 – AI adoption in wholesale distribution: efficiency gains vs. true strategic transformation1:16:35 – “Growth at a higher cost”: how to navigate labor inflation, electricity costs, reshoring, and fiscal pressureMeet the Guest:Taylor St. Germain is a Senior Economist and Business Consultant at ITR Economics. He delivers economic keynotes nationwide and helps manufacturers and distributors identify leading indicators, forecast demand, and prepare for economic cycles with a 94.7% forecasting accuracy standard.Tools, Frameworks, and Strategies Mentioned:ITR Economics leading indicator forecasting modelsWeekly GDP tracking vs. lagging government metricsTrimmed mean inflation vs. core CPIEnterprise Growth Platform by LeadSmart TechnologiesAI-driven margin protection and data unification strategiesClosing Insight:“We are very optimistic about growth, but it's growth at a higher cost.”The second half of the decade presents opportunities for wholesale distributors and manufacturers, but only for those who actively manage labor inflation, tariff exposure, electricity costs, and AI investment discipline. Growth is not the question. Margin strategy is.Leave a Review: Help us grow by sharing your thoughts on the show.Learn more about the LeadSmart AI B2B Sales Platform: https://www.leadsmarttech.com/Join the conversation each week on LinkedIn Live.Want even more insight to the stories we discuss each week? Subscribe to the Around The Horn Newsletter.You can also hear the podcast and other excellent content on our YouTube Channel.Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or TikTok.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Thursday's show, we visit with the Co-Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh about the status of Artificial Intelligence legislation in Florida. Cato Institute Director of Health Policy Studies Michael Cannon and I discuss proposed work requirements for Medicaid in Florida as well as claims of fraud in Obamacare. We also visit Senior Economist with CEI Ryan Young about consumer sentiment, inflation, interest rates, and tariffs. We also visit with Collier County Clerk of Courts and Comptroller Crystal Kinzel about expanded courthouse space as well as the proposed roll-back on residential real estate taxes. We have terrific a terrific guest for Friday's show, author and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the right to free speech as well as non-discrimination. We visit with CEO of the Community Pregnancy Clinics Scott Baier about the new web site moms.gov, and we discuss funding for Planned Parenthood. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about the California elections as well as the three big cases to be announced by the Supreme Court. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about China and Taiwan. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, and Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Expert Topic: A new study puts economic growth at the centre of poverty reduction efforts Guest: Dr Roy Havemann, Senior Economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) and head of the Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab

Greg Brady spoke to Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets about Number-crunching the economic benefits of hosting the World Cup in Canada. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Greg Brady spoke to Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets about Number-crunching the economic benefits of hosting the World Cup in Canada. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Thursday's show, we visit with the Leader of GW's Regulatory Studies Center William Yeatman about Congressional legislative priorities and the President's anti-weaponization fund. Cato Institute Director of Health Policy Studies at the Cato Institute Michael Cannon and I discuss current legislative incentives that contribute to the excessive cost of health care and health insurance. We also visit Senior Economist with CEI Ryan Young about consumer sentiment, inflation, interest rates, and the Fed's balance sheet. We also visit with Senior Staff Expert with the James Madison Institute Doug Wheeler about the Special Legislative Sessions in Tallahassee and the proposed roll-back on residential real estate taxes. We have terrific a terrific guest for Friday's show, author and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Managing Director for Americans for Prosperity Kent Strang about addressing the “affordability” issues before the mid-term elections. We visit with Chair of Books for Collier Kids Sallie Williams about their terrific programs to address childhood literacy. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about the opportunities for J.D. Vance's Fraud taskforce, and we discuss Ken Paxton's primary victory in Texas. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about the proposed permanent settlement on the moon by 2032. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with GW Leader of Regulatory Studies center William Yeatman,, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and Doug Wheeler for the James Madison Institute. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Learn more about how the City of Boulder is funded, and why planning for the future of that funding matters to building a sustainable future and a thriving community.  Guests in this episode (City of Boulder)  Nicole Speer – City Council Member  Mark Wallach – City Council Member  Charlotte Husky – Budget Officer  Other Guests  Rich Wobbekind - Associate Dean and Senior Economist at the Leads School of Business  This episode was hosted by Julie Causa and Emi Smith. It was produced by the City of Boulder's Podcast Team. Music and sounds attributed to: https://freesound.org/s/325572/ -- License: Attribution NonCommercial 4.0.  Related Resources For more information about the City of Boulder's Long-Term Financial Strategy, visit Long-Term Financial Strategy | City of Boulder. 

As 2026 reaches its midpoint, the global economic outlook is growing more uncertain. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by the IIF's Marcello Estevão, Chief Economist and Managing Director, and Jonathan Fortun, Senior Economist, to unpack the latest Capital Flows Report and what it reveals about shifting growth, capital movements, and policy pressures. They examine how geopolitical shocks are compounding existing weaknesses, why the U.S. continues to outperform other economies, and what is driving mixed signals across emerging markets. The conversation also explores how supply chain disruptions are spreading beyond energy and what central banks and policymakers should be watching as risks build heading into the second half of the year. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss the latest Uk economic and political developments. How has it impacted the outlook for UK rates and the pound?

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Thursday's show, we visit with the Leader of GW's Regulatory Studies Center William Yeatman about Congressional legislative priorities and the President's anti-weaponization fund. Cato Institute Director of Health Policy Studies at the Cato Institute Michael Cannon and I discuss current legislative incentives that contribute to the excessive cost of health care and health insurance. We also visit Senior Economist with CEI Ryan Young about the government taking stakes in private companies, inflation, interest rates, and the Fed's balance sheet. We also visit with the CEO of Better Together Megan Rose about their terrific, faith-based programs to help families in crisis. We have terrific a terrific guest for Friday's show, author and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about gerrymandering in Florida after the Supreme Court decision. We visit with the CEO of State Shield Action Joe Gebbia about the success of Trump's China visit. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about yesterday's primary election results. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about energy and changing positions (for the better!) on climate change. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with GW Leader of Regulatory Studies center William Yeatman,, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and Better Together CEO Megan Rose. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Educator and author Arjun Jayadev joins This Is Hell! to talk about the new book published by The University Of Chicago Press that he co-wrote with J.W. Mason called “Against Money”, which talks about how money has gotten to dominate the lives of humans world wide as it become the most influential human creation. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/A/bo265118979.html Arjun Jayadev is professor of economics and director of the Centre for the Study of the Indian Economy at Azim Premji University in India. He has previously taught at the University of Massachusetts-Boston. He is also a Senior Economist at the Institute for New Economic Thinking. His research combines quantitative and theoretical analysis of Finance, Development, Political Economy and Intellectual Property. He is also a fellow at the Groundwork Collective. https://groundworkcollaborative.org/ We will have new installments of Rotten History and Hangover Cure. We will also be sharing your answers to this week's Question from Hell! from Patreon. Help keep This Is Hell! completely listener supported and access bonus episodes by subscribing to our Patreon: www.patreon.com/thisishell

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Thursday's show, we visit with the Leader of GW's Regulatory Studies Center William Yeatman about Congressional legislative priorities and the status of tariffs. Cato Institute Director of Health Policy Studies at the Cato Institute Michael Cannon and I discuss a few Federal policies that could improve healthcare affordability. We also visit Senior Economist with CEI Ryan Young about inflation, interest rates, and the Fed's balance sheet. We also visit with the former Mayor of Naples Bill Barnett. We have terrific a terrific guest for Friday's show, author and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about gerrymandering after the Supreme Court decision. We visit with the CEO of Optima Education Online about tools in the metaverse that put parents in charge of their children's education. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about the Supreme Court's decision on gerrymandering. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about the political climate, Trump Derangement Syndrome, and the impact of our relationships. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with GW Leader of Regulatory Studies center William Yeatman,, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and Mayor Bill Barnett. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Leigh Anderson is a Senior Economist at Farm Credit Canada (FCC) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Data shows Ireland still lagging on salary transparency, this is according to new research from Indeed. Anton discusses the research findings with Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Indeed Hiring Lab.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the gerrymandering Supreme Court decision. We visit with Vice President of the National Taxpayers Union Demian Brady about Congressional accountability. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about the Supreme Court's decision on gerrymandering. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about media hostility and Trump Derangement Syndrome. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizen's Alliance, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, and Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

  The US GDP grew by 2% between January and March, recovering from a tumble taken during the 43-day federal shutdown. Now, Americans are wondering how the war in Iran will affect these numbers. Greg and guest host Jim Bennett spoke to Robert Spendlove, Senior Economist for Zions Bank, to break down these numbers and what the average Utahns can expect.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the legal tension that exists between the right to non-discrimination and the right to free speech. We visit with Murray Sabrin, Associated Scholar with the Mises Institute about the mission of the Mises Institute and about achieving financial independence in America. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about Saturday's assassination attempt on President Trump, and we discuss the reasons for the indictment of the Southern Poverty Legal Center. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with COO Ryan Kennedy from the Florida Citizen's Alliance, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and Executive Director of The Arlington of Naples Christy Skinner. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Inflation pressures predate the Middle East supply shock, leaving central banks constrained on policy. Nicholas Fawcett, Senior Economist at the BlackRock Investment Institute, explains why we expect yields to remain elevated and how this affects the role of long-term government bonds as portfolio diversifiers.General disclosure: This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities, funds or strategies to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks. BlackRock does and may seek to do business with companies covered in this podcast. As a result, readers should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this podcast.In the U.S. and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution.In the UK and Non-European Economic Area (EEA) countries: this is Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel:+ 44 (0)20 7743 3000. Registered in England and Wales No. 02020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. Please refer to the Financial Conduct Authority website for a list of authorised activities conducted by BlackRock.In the European Economic Area (EEA): this is Issued by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is authorised and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Registered office Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam, Tel: 020 – 549 5200, Tel: 31-20- 549-5200. Trade Register No. 17068311 For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded.For Investors in Switzerland: This document is marketing material.In South Africa: Please be advised that BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is an authorised Financial Services provider with the South African Financial Services Board, FSP No. 43288.In Singapore, this is issued by BlackRock (Singapore) Limited (Co. registration no. 200010143N). This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. In Hong Kong, this material is issued by BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Australia, issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975, AFSL 230 523 (BIMAL). This material provides general information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should assess whether the material is appropriate for you and obtain financial advice tailored to you having regard to your individual objectives, financial situation, needs and circumstances. Refer to BIMAL's Financial Services Guide on its website for more information. This material is not a financial product recommendation or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial product in any jurisdictionIn Latin America: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds may not have been registered with the securities regulator of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country and thus might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx©2026 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.BII0426-5431249-EXP0427-1/16

Jeremy Siegel, Wharton Emeritus Professor of Finance and Senior Economist at WisdomTree, explains how Iran-related tensions, Federal Reserve uncertainty, and continued AI sector expansion are influencing market resilience, investor sentiment, and the outlook for interest rates and equities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss how the FX majors have been performing ahead of the upcoming BoJ, Fed, BoE & ECB policy meetings. Wil the European central banks stick to more hawkish guidance than the BoJ and Fed?

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, to discuss global economic trends, monetary policy, and the emerging commodity super cycle. The professor’s outlook suggests a complex economic landscape with potential for significant disruption, driven by monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and structural changes in global trade and commodity markets. Hanke emphasizes the critical importance of money supply as a key indicator of economic activity and inflation, noting that the United States is currently experiencing an accelerating money supply that will make controlling inflation challenging. The discussion highlights several significant global economic dynamics, particularly focusing on commodity markets and geopolitical tensions. Hanke argues that the world is entering a commodity super cycle characterized by underinvestment, supply chain disruptions, and precautionary inventory building. The ongoing conflict in the Gulf region and disruptions to global trade have further complicated commodity markets, with potential oil prices ranging from $100 to $350 per barrel depending on supply constraints. Geopolitically, Hanke suggests that Russia and China are emerging as significant winners in this environment, while the United States has potentially weakened its global position through its actions. He dismisses concerns about de-dollarization, arguing that the US dollar remains the dominant global currency with limited realistic alternatives. On inflation, Hanke predicts continued upward pressure due to monetary policy loosening, commercial bank lending growth, and federal reserve actions. He emphasizes that inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon, driven by increases in money supply rather than isolated economic events. Regarding commodities, Hanke identifies several sectors poised for growth, including critical materials like lithium and vanadium. He recommends investors be “long everything” in the commodity space, noting significant price increases in various exotic commodities. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:52 – Key Economic Metrics 00:02:00 – US Money Supply Acceleration 00:03:58 – China’s Inflation Challenges 00:04:56 – Commodity Supply Disruptions 00:05:30 – US Tariffs and Sanctions 00:07:13 – Iran War and Strait Closure 00:11:55 – Iranian Economy 00:12:45 – Oil Price Scenarios 00:13:10 – Commodity Super Cycle Thesis 00:17:00 – Oil Supply Impacts 00:20:44 – Market Complacency on Risks 00:24:06 – Winners and Losers Analysis 00:25:12 – China’s Economy 00:27:55 – De-Dollarization Myths 00:30:36 – Gold’s Geopolitical Role 00:33:15 – Supply Shocks & Infrastructure 00:37:20 – Inflation and Money Supply 00:41:40 – Treasury Demand & Inflation 00:46:40 – Bank Lending & Money Supply 00:48:28 – Commodity Picks & Wrap Up Guest Links: X: https://x.com/steve_hanke Website: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com Amazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260 Amazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Interest-Waiting-Controversies-Additions/dp/3031633970 E-Mail: mailto:hanke@jhu.edu Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China's International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal's Opinion pages. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk's Experts Panel. In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor's Council of Economic Advisors in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997- 2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998. He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. Prof. Hanke has been awarded honorary doctorate degrees by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, the Universität Liechtenstein, the Universidad San Francisco de Quito, the Free University of Tbilisi, Istanbul Kültür University, Varna Free University, and the D.A. Tsenov Academy of Economics in recognition of his scholarship on exchange-rate regimes. Prof. Hanke and his wife, Liliane, reside in Baltimore and Paris.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the Supreme Court's involvement in the transgender culture wars. We visit with Leader of the Regulatory Studies Center at GWU William Yeatman about the reconciliation package proposed to end the government shutdown and the proposed FISA reauthorization. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about yesterday's gerrymandering vote in Virginia. We also visit with Professor Larry Bell about the work of the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture he founded aver 40 years ago! Please join us tomorrow when we visit with COO Ryan Kennedy from the Florida Citizen's Alliance, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and former Mayor of Naples Bill Barnett. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Josh responds to the pope’s recent comments about the war in Iran and examining how they square with Scripture. He also breaks down the latest developments in the ongoing peace talks between Israel and Lebanon and what the newest updates could mean for stability across the Middle East.Josh is then joined by Peter St. Onge, Senior Economist at The Heritage Foundation, to discuss the state of the economy and the real key to bringing oil prices down—both here at home and around the world.Later, Josh reacts to a major Left-wing influencer once again making headlines with inflammatory comments, and he explains why Republicans would be wise to spotlight rhetoric like this to show just how far outside the mainstream parts of the modern Left have drifted.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the basics of the Constitution and we discuss the Supreme Court's pending decision on birthright citizenship. We visit with Founder and Producing Artistic Director of Gulfshore Playhouse Kristen Coury about upcoming professional theater productions. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about Federal Judge James Boasberg, and we discuss election integrity legislation. We also visit with Professor Larry Bell about our plans to colonize Mars. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with CEO Keith Flaugh from the Florida Citizen's Alliance, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and former Mayor of Naples Bill Barnett. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Energy has never really been cheap for the German economy, but it is a calculable cost factor. It is precisely this reliability that is currently being lost. Within a short period of time, oil and gas prices have risen significantly, triggered by geopolitical tensions and disrupted supply chains. For companies, this primarily means one thing: uncertainty is returning. Can the economy meet this challenge? Andreas Fischer, Senior Economist at the Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft in Cologne, provides an answer: - Energie war für die deutsche Wirtschaft noch nie wirklich billig, aber ein kalkulierbarer Kostenfaktor. Genau diese Verlässlichkeit geht derzeit verloren. Innerhalb kurzer Zeit haben sich Öl- und Gaspreise deutlich verteuert, ausgelöst durch geopolitische Spannungen und gestörte Lieferketten.Für Unternehmen bedeutet das vorwiegend eines: Unsicherheit kehrt zurück. Kann die Wirtschaft diese Herausforderung bewältigen? Eine Antwort gibt Andreas Fischer, Senior Economist beim Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft in Köln:

Mentor Sessions Ep. 060: Senior Economist on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, AI, Oil, and the Dollar Crisis Nobody Is Talking About | Prof Peter St OngeThe dollar took its biggest hit in 50 years — and most people have no idea it happened.Professor Peter St. Onge (Heritage Foundation senior economist, Mises Institute fellow) breaks down exactly why freezing Russian central bank assets was a watershed moment for dollar dominance, what Fed panic over oil prices could do to the economy in 2026, and why Bitcoin is positioned to jump when the current geopolitical storm clears. This is the macro conversation you need to hear right now — no fluff, no hopium, just sharp analysis from one of the best macro minds following the intersection of money, geopolitics, and Bitcoin.You'll walk away understanding why the petrodollar is under real structural pressure, how AI is being weaponized as a narrative tool by global institutions, and what signals to watch for in markets as war, inflation, and dollar credibility collide.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 – Intro 1:01 – Petrodollar Greeting & Gold/Bitcoin Performance 2:00 – Bitcoin as Hot Money (“Tourists”) 5:35 – Oil Prices Driving Fed Rate Expectations 11:10 – What Happens to Bitcoin When the War Ends 12:35 – Lasting War Effects & Petrodollar Question 13:24 – Is the Petrodollar Actually Dying? 15:08 – Bitcoin as a “Lifeboat” / Dollar Alternatives 18:26 – Freezing Russian Assets – Biggest Dollar Hit in 50 Years 21:31 – Housing Crisis & Mortgage Lock-In 24:53 – The Single Biggest Risk: Fed Panic on Oil Prices 29:54 – QE, Money Printing & Fed Toolkit 38:19 – Kevin Warsh & Hard-Money Outlook 47:42 – Petrodollar Road Signs & Dollar Strength 52:00 – Stablecoins vs Wall Street Banks 54:23 – The WEF's AI Job Loss Narrative 58:00 – AI, Jobs & The Escalator Effect 1:10:20 – Final Thoughts & Where to Find Peter

It's a tough time for any young person looking for a job at the moment. While overall unemployment is running at just over 5 percent, there's particular concern about a large group of 16 to 24 year olds - almost a million of them (12.8%) who are not in employment, education or training. And that includes recent graduates in that age bracket. They're known as NEETS. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss why they're in this situation - is it down to the state of the economy, their own ability to work or that ever present fear - AI?Guests: Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist, Indeed Hiring Lab Lindsay Judge, Research Director, The Resolution Foundation Xiaowei Xu, Senior Research Economist, Institute for Fiscal Studies. John Burn-Murdoch, Chief Data Reporter, The Financial TimesPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

As the Iran war continues on, many people have questions about the impact here in the United States. The most significant impact will be on our economy and Peter St. Onge Phd, is the Senior Economist at the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies. Before the war, President Trump's economy was on fire, with GDP at around 3%, the jobs market was doing great and inflation was at an incredible low 0.07%. Will the war in Iran jeopardize the Trump economic boom before the midterm elections? For every 10 dollar increase in oil prices, we see dents in GDP, hits in inflation and a decrease in the jobs market. Peter walks us through where we are today and where we will end up depending how long the war goes on. Jenny Story, the COO of Patriot Mobile joins me to discuss the important issues Patriot Mobile is championing in Texas. Texas has been overwhelmed with an influx of Muslims and Prop 10 asked voters whether Texas should ban Sharia law. Jenny updates us on all the activism going on at Patriot Mobile and why you should switch your cell phone service today! Featuring: Peter St. Onge, Phd Senior Economist | Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies https://x.com/profstonge Jenny Story COO | Patriot Mobile https://patriotmobile.com/ Patriot Mobile - PatriotMobile.com/SPICER for 1 free month Take a stand for faith, family, and freedom—switch to Patriot Mobile. Patriot Mobile provides PREMIUM service on all three major U.S. networks.  Patriot Mobile has the same or even better coverage, backed by 100% U.S.-based customer support. Get unlimited data plans, mobile hotspots, international roaming, and more with Patriot Mobile. Take a stand as a PATRIOT by going to ⁠https://PatriotMobile.com/SPICER⁠ or call 972-PATRIOT for a FREE month! FREE CONTENT: https://www.seanspicer.com/p/trump-20 Today's show is sponsored by: Beam - shopbeam.com/SPICER to receive 40% off your order Are you tossing and turning at night and running on fumes during the day? If so, then you are missing out on the most important part of your wellness, sleep. If you want to wake up refreshed, inspired and ready to take on the day then you have to try Beam's Dream powder. This best-selling blend of Reishi, Magnesium, L-Theanine, Apigenin and Melatonin will help you fall asleep, stay asleep, and wake up refreshed. So if you're ready for the best night of sleep you ever had just head to https://shopbeam.com/SPICER to receive 40% off your order. Ruff Greens - ⁠https://ruffgreens.com/⁠ enter code: SPICER for your FREE starter pack. If you're a dog lover and want to keep your dog healthy and happy then you have to give them Ruff Greens. Ruff Greens bring the nutrition your dog needs back. Dr. Dennis Black a Naturopathic Doctor helping humans and their pets for over 25 years created Ruff Greens. Ruff Greens supports long-term health by providing LIVE bioavailable nutrients and essential vitamins, minerals, probiotics, digestive enzymes, and omega oils. It promotes longevity and supplements the diet with natural antioxidants and anti- inflammatory compounds that help dogs stay active, mobile, and alert as they age. Head to ⁠https://ruffgreens.com/⁠ enter code: SPICER for your FREE starter pack. ------------------------------------------------------------- 1️⃣ Subscribe and ring the bell for new videos: https://youtube.com/seanmspicer?sub_confirmation=1 2️⃣ Become a part of The Sean Spicer Show community: https://www.seanspicer.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices