Podcasts about senior economist

Hours shy of Trump's tariff deadline, Vassy Kapelos speaks with CTV's Mike LeCouteur, as trade officials from both sides of the border gather in Washington to try and finalize a deal. On today's show: Brian Kingston, the President of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association, joins Vassy to discuss how the Auto sector is managing the trade war. Shaun Cathcart, a Senior Economist with the Canadian Real Estate Association, dissects the current state of the Canadian housing market. The Parti Quebecois says, until Donald Trump exits the White House, the idea of a referendum won't be on the table. Dimitris Soudas, a former Communications Director to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, delivers his reaction. The Daily Debrief Panel - featuring Sharan Kaur, Jamie Ellerton, and Nojoud Al Mallees. Todd Stafford, the owner of Brockville-based Northern Cables, joins Vassy to discuss how his business would fare if additional tariffs are imposed at Midnight.

While further OCR hikes are probably on the way, inflation now appears to have turned a corner. Latest Stats NZ data shows diesel inflation's fallen to 34.8% and petrol inflation's fallen to 15.1%, with prices for both dropping for three consecutive months. Electricity inflation's back down to 9.5% and food inflation's now just 1.9%. ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking inflation appears to be falling from the peak reached last quarter. He says the numbers are very positive. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the gerrymandering decisions made in latest term of the Supreme Court. We meet the new Director of the Collier Senior Center – Golden Gate Jessica Perez, and we discuss the many senior services they provide. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation VP Michael O'Neill about yesterday's Primary election results, and we discuss the Senate's unfinished business before leaving for Summer break. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about the addictive qualities of artificial intelligence Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and COO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Ryan Kennedy, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and Young Voices Content Creator Holly Jean Soto. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Singapore has sharply upgraded its 2026 economic growth forecast to 4.5% to 5.5%, up from the earlier estimate of 2% to 4%, after the economy grew a stronger-than-expected 6.1% in the first half of the year. So what’s behind the surge? How much of Singapore’s growth is being fuelled by the global AI investment boom and can that momentum continue through the rest of 2026? On The Big Story, Hongbin Jeong speaks to Sheana Yue, Senior Economist for Macro Forecasting at Oxford Economics, about what’s driving Singapore’s stronger outlook, the risks ahead, and whether this growth story has staying power.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Canada's job numbers came in much stronger than expected in July, with the country adding 75,000 jobs and the unemployment rate falling to its lowest level in two years. Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, joins Evan to break down the numbers and share if Canadians can really feel confident about our labour market.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by Senior Economist and Consultant Tara Bayke to examine the health of the US consumer. Retail sales continue to grow, but a closer look reveals a widening divide between income groups as essential costs and credit card pressures affect consumers differently. What does this K-shaped economy mean for businesses over the next few years?

Well this isn't good news -- the labor market may be stalling again. New jobs numbers out today show the country actually lost jobs in July. Across retail, finance, hospitality, local government, and education, the U.S. lost 23,000 jobs last month. Does this signal a slowing economy, meaning it's time for the Feds to cut interest rates? Senior Economist at Zions Bank Robert Spendlove shares his expertise.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about some of the decisions from the latest term of the Supreme Court. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation VP Michael O'Neill about Primary election results in Michigan, and we discuss the implications of Dr. Anthony Fauci's decision to “plead the 5th” at his recent Senate testimony. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about the Democrat Socialists of America and their cultural and political impact Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, and Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

An economist believes the number of unemployed Kiwis might be close to peaking. The rate reached an 11-year high in the June quarter, on 5.6 percent - up from 5.4. Many say uncertainty fuelled by the Iran war is discouraging employers from taking on staff. Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon says the labour market could be nearing its weakest point. "We were starting to see some momentum picking up in the economy late last year to early this year. Unfortunately, we've had this interruption from the Middle East conflict. Had that not happened, we might be seeing a bit more momentum." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An economist believes the number of unemployed Kiwis might be close to peaking. The rate reached an 11-year high in the June quarter, on 5.6 percent - up from 5.4. Many say uncertainty fuelled by the Iran war is discouraging employers from taking on staff. Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon says the labour market could be nearing its weakest point. "We were starting to see some momentum picking up in the economy late last year to early this year. Unfortunately, we've had this interruption from the Middle East conflict. Had that not happened, we might be seeing a bit more momentum." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Head of US Public Policy Strategy Ariana Salvatore and US Thematic Strategist Michelle Weaver, alongside Senior Economist and Strategist in Morgan Stanley's Private Wealth Management Sarah Wolfe, examine the economics of the AI datacentre boom, the pushback and the policy implications.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley. Michelle Weaver: I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist. Sarah Wolfe: And I'm Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist and Strategist with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Ariana Salvatore: Today: the politics, economics, and market implications of America's AI data center build-out. It's Tuesday, August 4th at 10am in New York. AI infrastructure spending is becoming a major force in the U.S. investment cycle. But as you've heard on this podcast in recent weeks, local resistance to data centers is growing, and projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars are being canceled or delayed. More than 300 local moratoria have passed since 2023, and restrictions now touch 40 states. Now, most are temporary pauses, not outright bans, but the community opposition is tangible. For investors, the key question is how these local pressures shape the broader build-out. So, I wanted to talk to you both because, Sarah, you've looked at this on the local level, and Michelle, you've been leading some of our thematic work on this topic. So, Sarah, maybe we'll start with what happens when a data center comes to town. How does a large project ripple through a local economy, especially when so much of the expensive hardware is imported? Sarah Wolfe: I think we need to look at the data center build-out from two lenses. First, at the national level, and then what's really happening at the local level, county by county. So, at the national level, the headline investment can actually overstate the contribution to GDP because a lot of the components that go into data centers – think chips, servers, networking equipment – most of that is imported. So, it's actually an offset in the GDP accounting.But when we analyze the AI build-out at a local level, we see that the town experiences the project very differently. A data center still needs a physical shell, concrete, steel, electricians, construction workers, and then the restaurants that feed the construction workers. So, the local multiplier depends on how much of that spending around the data center stays nearby. Workers are going to get paid, local suppliers win contracts, and nearby businesses will see more demand. And then importantly, governments may collect more property and business tax revenue. When we look at county-level research on the AI data center build-out, we do see positive effects on employment, business formation, wages, income, and tax returns. So, these data centers are significant. They do have significant multipliers. But we need to dig a little bit deeper and look at how it affects different counties. Ariana Salvatore: So, it sounds like there are some local economic benefits. How durable do you think those are? Sarah Wolfe: Some of the effects are durable and some aren't. The largest and most important effects come through employment in the near term. If we look at the construction phase of these projects, let's look at a data center that's 250,000 square foot, in Virginia. That supports more than 1,500 workers during construction. But then, if we look at what happens after construction is done, there's only about 50 full-time workers once it's operating. And I will say I think that's a high-end estimate. If you look at how many workers these data centers employ state by state, some numbers are 10, some numbers are 20, and some are 30 employees. So, 50 is maybe on the higher end. So, the bottom line is that the labor market multiplier actually fades after the facility comes online. What does persist, are the smaller share of data center processing jobs, ongoing supplier and service activity, and then importantly, of course, the property tax base. But even that fiscal benefit depends on how the incentive package is designed. If a locality, for example, grants a very large, long-lived sales or property tax exemption, it may give away much of the revenue that made the project attractive in the first place. So, the job story is real, but it's much more front-loaded. And then the tax revenue story is real too, but it really matters on how the locality negotiated the incentive package. Ariana Salvatore: So, it sounds like there are some benefits and some potential drawbacks. How do you think communities should judge whether a trade-off like that is worth it? Sarah Wolfe: I think communities should be asking this question of how much spending and tax revenue actually stays local after all the incentives? How many jobs remain after construction? Who pays for new generation transmission, water system, and roads? And who bears the spillovers through utility bills, housing costs, or land use? The evidence does suggest that data center growth can lift incomes and expand the tax base. But it also raises home prices. And as we know, it raises electricity prices as well. A typical AI data center may use as much electricity as 100,000 homes, so cost allocation is critical. The strongest agreements make benefits durable and costs explicit through transparent reporting, sunset dates or claw backs on incentives, infrastructure cost-sharing, and protections that keep the household from subsidizing this build-out. The test is really whether the community captures enough lasting value to justify the demands on land, power, water, housing, and public finances. Ariana Salvatore: Michelle, I want to bring you in here. The local picture that Sarah describes helped explain why the politics can be so uneven. How are moratoria and other local restrictions changing the pace and the location of the build-out, maybe on a national scale? Michelle Weaver: I think you have to think about just the different type of moratoria themselves even. So, we're not seeing them uniform across different states in what's been proposed.However, the majority of moratoria are a pause, not a[n] outright ban on construction. So, they might say, "Okay, we want one year," or "We want three years to do local impact studies and, and think about the way these data centers are going to impact communities." So, the primary risk is really to the pace of the build-out, and as more and more of these moratoria pop up, you have to start to think about how that could shift the geography and the location of where these data centers will ultimately be built. We are seeing a shift towards more data centers being placed in rural locations. This also has implications for the international data center build-out. You're seeing more and more of these data centers go up in Canada and in Australia to serve U.S. needs. Ariana Salvatore: The polling data show us that voters are increasingly skeptical of AI. Specifically, they're worried about electricity prices and local costs. How should investors read that concern? Michelle Weaver: Well, there's a couple things we have to unpack here. First is really around perception. So, in certain areas where you have both high data center activity as well as unregulated utility markets; yes, it's true, there is some of this raised cost ending up on consumer power bills from data center activity. But in other areas with unregulated utility markets and lower data center activity, you don't see the same link between consumer power bills and what's going on with data center electricity consumption. But perception is what really drives politics and given that this perception is becoming spread across different states with both regulated and unregulated utility markets, politicians are reacting to it. And the second thing this gets at is affordability. Consumers have been stressed by inflation for years now and elevated prices. And given that they think that data center costs are now winding up on their power bills, it's not surprising that you're seeing this big reaction, and that anything having to do with affordability has become a huge issue for voters. Ariana Salvatore: Translating that into how we think things evolve from here, what industry and financing trends do you think matter most going forward? Michelle Weaver: We recently identified the three main bottlenecks for the data center build-out as power, people, and politics. This whole episode has been about that third P, politics, but let's unpack power and people. On power, we still think there's a potential shortfall of around 38 gigawatts needed through 2028. So, power is going to remain a huge bottleneck, and as the politics layer gets placed on top of the power layer, you're seeing more and more of an issue there. And so, what that really argues for is for data centers to be off grid. That way they can say, "Okay, there's no way we can potentially impact consumer power bills if we're not even connected to the grid." The second P, people, is another big bottleneck, and we're seeing a very tough time for data centers to get skilled laborers. It's very hard to find electricians right now and other skilled laborers needed to set up these data centers. Ariana, that brings us to the policy debate. Why is data center opposition moving from town halls into state houses and Congress? And what does this mean for a conditional build-out? Ariana Salvatore: Yes, I think the points that you both touched on really explain why we're seeing this sort of pushback evolve, right?Local communities are concerned about their electricity prices. Again, we see that on more a regional than a national basis. They're concerned about quality-of-life concerns. They're concerned about the environmental impacts. And so, all of that has caused these efforts to sort of cross state lines. We see it in both Democrat-held state legislatures as well as Republican-held. So, it's definitely resonating with voters, and this is an issue that we think is going to be a key wedge issue into the midterm elections. It started to move into Congress rhetorically, but we still think something like a federal ban or a federal moratorium is very unlikely. And that's because we see a different incentive structure for lawmakers in Congress from the state and local level. Principally, I'm talking about the U.S.-China relationship. So, when you look at the geopolitical backdrop to this debate, there are certain things that you can't ignore. And one of those things is that the U.S. and China are locked in this race for AI supremacy at the moment. And I think federal lawmakers have more of an incentive to respond to those policy demands and those policy needs, meaning they want to keep facilitating the build-out.So that's why you're seeing the national level still relatively supportive of this build-out. We're seeing permitting reform. We're seeing Defense Production Act being leveraged by the president. We're seeing still an overall very favorable environment trying to unlock, sort of, that power bottleneck, for example. So that's kind of what brings us to this conditional build-out. Now, what does that mean? We think that the hyperscalers in these companies are going to have to offer some concession to local communities to facilitate the build-out. And that could be a number of things. I think it depends on the state's concern or the local community's concern principally, but we see a few different options. One of those things is behind-the-meter power generation. So on-site power is one of the clear kind of offsets to this debate. Another thing would be improving utilization rates. So, our sustainability analysts found that the capacity utilization rates are actually quite low at some of these data centers in the range of 30 to 40 percent. So maybe that can be increased. We've got some potential new regulations or transparency requirements around water usage. So, the short of it is, there's not going to be a one-size-fits-all solution here. But we think there's enough on the policy side that these companies can do or offer essentially to local communities. So that the entire build-out doesn't get delayed or doesn't get stopped. And, and that's kind of why we still expect elevated AI CapEx, not just this year, but next year as well. We think that the risks are skewed to the upside for those numbers.Sarah Wolfe: Ariana, I want to touch back to the comment you made on low odds of a nationwide ban on AI data center build-out – and tie it to this broader competition between the U.S. and China, with global supremacy in AI. Can you talk a little bit more about how competition with China is going to prevent a nationwide ban and some of the national security concerns around that? Ariana Salvatore: This ties into the theme of sovereign AI, which is something that we've been focused on recently, especially with all these discussions of more tech restrictions and controls between the U.S. and China. And specifically, it's one of the reasons that we think the geographical build-out will be constrained to either just the U.S. domestically or countries that we are closely aligned with. And really the point I want to make here is that there's three geopolitical realities that are going to form, we think, the incentive structure for federal lawmakers and that are slightly different from the things that state and local policymakers tend to focus on. The first is that we're seeing China leverage its supply chain position to pressure the physical inputs required for AI infrastructure, right? So, we're seeing that tit-for-tat escalation in the context of a broader strategic détente, but there's still a competitive aspect there. The second is that we know China's accelerating its own physical AI build-out. Reporting indicates they're spending something like $300 billion over five years on its own domestic network, so very much full steam ahead in terms of its own domestic potential. And the third is that research has identified China-linked influence operations that use an American frontier model to generate social media posts, comments, and political cartoons linking the data center construction to rising energy prices. So, there's still a little bit of uncertainty as to whether or not those campaigns actually influence public opinion at scale. But in our view, it really underscores the linkage between national security and geopolitics and the AI data center build-out. All these developments together we think underscore the physical component of the AI race and make something like a national data center ban or federal legislation toward those ends really difficult to reconcile with the growing bipartisan strategic imperative around AI, which is something that we think persists past the midterms as well. But at the end of the day, the pace of the AI build-out will depend not just on demand, but on how well projects address the concerns of the communities hosting them. That's why we think this conditional build-out is probably the right base case for now. Michelle and Sarah, thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Michelle Weaver: Great speaking with you both. Sarah Wolfe: Thank you, Ariana. Ariana Salvatore: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.*****Sarah Wolfe is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

The job market is expected to remain tight for quite some time. Many economists are picking today's unemployment rate will increase from 5.3% to 5.5% for the June quarter. ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Ryan Bridge the war in Iran and the surrounding uncertainty has probably spooked many employers. He says they may even hold off making any hiring decisions until next year. Smith says manufacturing and construction are likely to see bigger job losses, and workers under 25 are suffering the most, with their unemployment rate sitting around 15%. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A super El Niño is forecast to bring more than extreme weather—it could reshape the global economy. From supply chains and insurance markets to commodity prices and infrastructure, how should business leaders prepare before disruption strikes? In this episode of C-Suite Perspectives, Steve Odland is joined by Dr. Alex Heil, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, to examine the economic implications of a powerful El Niño event. Together, they discuss which industries face the greatest exposure, how climate volatility can affect enterprise risk and financial performance, and what practical steps organizations can take to strengthen resilience through scenario planning and strategic decision-making. More from The Conference Board: ·         El Niño's Global Reach: The Business Impact of Extreme Weather ·         The Global Water Crisis—Mitigation and Adaption in a World of Water Shortages ·         The Heat Is On! How Extreme Heat Is Reshaping Business Risk ·         At the Climate Crossroads: US Corporate Commitments 10 Years After Paris Accord

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the latest term for the Supreme Court. We visit with State Shield Action President Joe Gebbia about the problems created by the aluminum shortage in America. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about the major international, political and scientific changes that have occurred in the last 80 years and how these changes may affect future generations. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and former Congressman and Ambassador Francis Rooney. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Zach Milne, Senior Economist at the Common Sense Institute, joined Arizona’s Morning News to talk about a new report showing Arizona job growth continues to outpace the nation.

Elizabeth Wren, European Political Analyst, sits down to speak with Henry Cook, Senior Economist, to talk about recent developments in the UK economy. They discuss new PM Andy Burnham's policy platform and how much fiscal flexibility there may be for his proposals, as well the outlook for the upcoming Bank of England meeting amid renewed energy price pressures.

Australia's jobs market continues to defy expectations, with more than 76,000 jobs created in the latest month as the unemployment rate held at 4.4 per cent and workforce participation climbed to its highest level in a year.SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves speaks with Faraz Syed, Senior Economist at Citi Australia, about what the strong labour market means for the outlook for interest rates. Plus, Ben Clark from TMS Private Wealth unpacks a mixed day on the ASX, where gains in materials and energy helped lift the market despite weakness in technology and healthcare following the jobs data.

Zach Milne, Senior Economist at the Common Sense Institute, joined Arizona's Morning News to talk about how debt is eating Arizona more than other states.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the last term for the Supreme Court. We visit with Arizona Congressional candidate Dr. Zuhdi Jasser about our strategy for the war in Iran. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about the benefits of his use of Artificial Intelligence in preparing for the colonization of Mars. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and columnist Patrick Carroll. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Steve Hanke back to the show. Steve Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University. Hanke highlights the two major wars—the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran and the Ukraine war—as critical disruptors of global commodity flows. He notes that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with Iran controlling it, and the Houthis threaten the Red Sea chokepoint, severely constricting crude and refined product supplies. Russia's cutoff of diesel exports and domestic fuel shortages compound the strain. Oil markets are in backwardation, with spot prices above futures, signaling dangerously low inventories that have cushioned prices so far but are nearing depletion. Hanke warns that once physical inventories run out, oil prices could spike dramatically, potentially later this summer. He advises going long on oil, especially major producers, as a straightforward trade for most investors. On gold, Hanke maintains a bullish outlook, projecting a peak around $6,000 per ounce based on historical ratios to real disposable income. He attributes recent pullbacks to dollar strength and rising interest rates but sees central bank buying as a fundamental driver. He also discusses the pressure on the Fed to monetize debt, which could fuel inflation and support gold. The conversation shifts to the broader commodity supercycle, fueled by deglobalization, underinvestment, and the need for larger precautionary inventories. Copper and tungsten are identified as clear bullish plays due to supply deficits. Hanke notes that high diesel prices are squeezing mining and agriculture, potentially raising output prices. He also touches on dollarization, recommending developing countries adopt the U.S. dollar to expand its use rather than de-dollarize. The interview concludes with Hanke emphasizing the importance of money supply growth as the key determinant of nominal GDP and inflation. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:05 – Key Developments on Radar 00:04:58 – Oil Predictions vs Reality 00:10:53 – Inventory and Flow Analysis 00:14:40 – Crack Spreads and Refining 00:16:27 – Demand Destruction Dynamics 00:20:51 – Anticipated Oil Price Spike 00:22:32 – Long Oil Opportunity 00:27:37 – Gold Bull Market Outlook 00:29:38 – Central Bank Buying Drivers 00:45:54 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: X: https://x.com/steve_hanke Website: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com Amazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260 Amazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Interest-Waiting-Controversies-Additions/dp/3031633970 E-Mail: mailto:hanke@jhu.edu Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China's International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal's Opinion pages. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk's Experts Panel. In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor's Council of Economic Advisors in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997- 2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998. He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. Prof. Hanke has been awarded honorary doctorate degrees by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, the Universität Liechtenstein, the Universidad San Francisco de Quito, the Free University of Tbilisi, Istanbul Kültür University, Varna Free University, and the D.A. Tsenov Academy of Economics in recognition of his scholarship on exchange-rate regimes. Prof. Hanke and his wife, Liliane, reside in Baltimore and Paris.

The Consumers Price Index (CPI) has increased 4.1% in the 12 months to the June 2026 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. As expected, the increase can be partially contributed to the US-Iran war as the largest upwards contributor to the annual inflation rate was petrol, up 27.5%. Finance Minister Nicola Willis is labelling annual inflation hitting its highest level in more than two years a “Trump spike”. Former Reserve Bank senior economist Michael Reddell told Andrew Dickens that economists don't tend to look at the headline numbers but they will be digging through the numbers to find trends. "It's a bit like the famous line about democracy, you know, it's not a perfect system, it's just better than any of the alternatives that have been tried, and inflation targeting is a bit like that as well. It's definitely not perfect." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vertical merger review has long rested on the principle that competitive harm is most likely when a merged firm has both the ability and incentive to foreclose rivals, yet courts and enforcers often struggle to establish that harm empirically. But can potentially anticompetitive vertical integrations be screened in advance using observable market characteristics? Charles Hodgson, Assistant Professor of Economics at Yale University and Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER, and Shilong Sun, Senior Economist at Compass Lexecon, join Anora Wang and Panos Dimitrellos to discuss how evidence from the Chinese film industry sheds light on when vertical foreclosure is likely to emerge, why downstream concentration and upstream product substitutability matter, and how these findings may inform modern merger review across industries ranging from movie theaters to digital platforms. Listen to this episode to learn more about how a practical screening framework for vertical mergers could help identify when foreclosure concerns are most likely to arise and provide enforcers and practitioners with a more evidence-based approach to assessing competitive harm. With special guests: Charles Hodgson, Professor, Yale and Shilong Sun, Dr., Compass Lexecon Related Links: Charles Hodgson bio Shilong Sun bio  Heterogeneity in Vertical Foreclosure: Evidence from the Chinese Film Industry  Hosted by: Panos Dimitrellos, Secretariat Economists and Anora Wang, Arnold & Porter

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about both Federal and state marijuana and drug laws. We visit with American Commitment President Phil Kerpen about Biden administration blunders that make drug price controls even worse. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about the life and passing of Lindsey Graham. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about his musings about what aliens might be learning about us from our music. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and columnist Patrick Carroll. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

U.S. consumers showed remarkable resilience in June, with spending growth reaching its strongest pace in four years. But what's driving the surge, and can it last? In this episode of Global Research Unlocked, T.J. Thornton speaks with David Tinsley, Senior Economist at the Bank of America Institute, about the latest Consumer Checkpoint data. They unpack the factors behind June's spending acceleration, including the impact of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a rebound in discretionary purchases, and improving momentum among lower-income households. The conversation explores a notable shift in the consumer landscape: the long-running K-shaped spending trend appears to be narrowing. David discusses why wage growth is accelerating for lower-income consumers, how increased job switching and a stronger labor market may be supporting household finances, and whether these improvements are likely to persist into the second half of the year. They also examine spending patterns across World Cup host cities, the return of strength in retail categories, and the risks facing consumers as temporary tailwinds fade and spending continues to outpace wage growth.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

New data shows that business confidence has picked up for in the June quarter, but Middle East tensions and higher fuel prices remain a concern. The latest NZIER survey shows a net 12 percent of business owners are feeling positive - up from just 1 percent in March. Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon says things are changing day-to-day, and it's unclear where things will end up. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Senior Economist at realestate.com.au, Anne Flaherty, joins 3AW's Tom Elliott to discuss the downturn in the Melbourne housing market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, Robert Kavcic, a Senior Economist from the BMO Economics team, joins me to share his perspective on the state of the Canadian housing market. We go through the various fundamental drivers and discuss whether the market is bottoming after a challenging few years. In addition, we preview next week's Bank of Canada policy announcement. As always, all feedback is welcome.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about both Federal and state marijuana and drug laws. We visit with Collier County Clerk of Courts and Comptroller Crystal Kinzel about important agenda items coming up on the Commissioners' meeting. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner, and we discuss the “shadow” docket of the Supreme Court. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about world cup visitors celebrating what many Americans seem to take for granted. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, and Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

For the first time in three years the Reserve Bank has lifted the official cash rate, economists are divided on whether that's the right call, although there's agreement more increases are coming before the end of the year. Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.

On Episode 921 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Ajay Bagga, Veteran Market Analyst as well as Radhika Rao, Senior Economist and Executive Director at DBS Bank.SHOW NOTES(00:00) Stories of the Day(00:50) Foreign Portfolio Investors Are Returning To Indian Markets, One Trade At A Time(04:19) Nato Meet Kicks Off In Turkey (04:55) India To Supply Missiles To Indonesia And Partner For A Port(05:48) The Trend Shifts Within Indian Markets As Financial Stocks Lead The Pack(20:26) How Low Oil Prices And Other Positive Macro Signals Could Help The EconomyFor more of our coverage check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecore.in⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to our Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow us on:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linkedin⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Youtube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Fresh off America's historic 250th anniversary celebrations, the battle for the political future of New York and America's global alliances is heating up. Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) joins the Rundown to discuss the shifting landscape as progressive Democratic Socialist (DSA) candidates continue to win primaries and gain ground, while firing back at fellow politician New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani's holiday speech. Plus, the Congresswoman details the urgent bipartisan opposition to selling advanced U.S. military jet engines and F-35s to Turkey ahead of the critical NATO summit in Ankara. With home prices continuing to climb, more young adults are choosing to stay with their parents longer—even if they're employed full-time. New research suggests it's less about a "failure to launch" and more about the realities of today's housing market. Hannah Jones, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, joins the Rundown to explain what's driving the trend and what it could mean for the future of homeownership. PLUS, commentary by David Marcus, columnist for FOX News Digital.  PHOTO CREDIT: AP IMAGES Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Fresh off America's historic 250th anniversary celebrations, the battle for the political future of New York and America's global alliances is heating up. Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) joins the Rundown to discuss the shifting landscape as progressive Democratic Socialist (DSA) candidates continue to win primaries and gain ground, while firing back at fellow politician New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani's holiday speech. Plus, the Congresswoman details the urgent bipartisan opposition to selling advanced U.S. military jet engines and F-35s to Turkey ahead of the critical NATO summit in Ankara. With home prices continuing to climb, more young adults are choosing to stay with their parents longer—even if they're employed full-time. New research suggests it's less about a "failure to launch" and more about the realities of today's housing market. Hannah Jones, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, joins the Rundown to explain what's driving the trend and what it could mean for the future of homeownership. PLUS, commentary by David Marcus, columnist for FOX News Digital.  PHOTO CREDIT: AP IMAGES Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Fresh off America's historic 250th anniversary celebrations, the battle for the political future of New York and America's global alliances is heating up. Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) joins the Rundown to discuss the shifting landscape as progressive Democratic Socialist (DSA) candidates continue to win primaries and gain ground, while firing back at fellow politician New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani's holiday speech. Plus, the Congresswoman details the urgent bipartisan opposition to selling advanced U.S. military jet engines and F-35s to Turkey ahead of the critical NATO summit in Ankara. With home prices continuing to climb, more young adults are choosing to stay with their parents longer—even if they're employed full-time. New research suggests it's less about a "failure to launch" and more about the realities of today's housing market. Hannah Jones, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, joins the Rundown to explain what's driving the trend and what it could mean for the future of homeownership. PLUS, commentary by David Marcus, columnist for FOX News Digital.  PHOTO CREDIT: AP IMAGES Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. We visit with The Arlington of Naples Director of Business Development Barbara Ann Heegan about their Senior Health and Wellness Expo on July 15. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about the nuances of the Supreme Court's Birthright Citizenship decision. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about the contribution from artificial intelligence in preparing for travel and occupation on Mars. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and Kent Strang from American for Prosperity. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

How are US consumers feeling as summer begins — and what should business leaders know about the growing economic impact of extreme heat? In this episode of C-Suite Perspectives, Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist and Leader of the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center at The Conference Board, is joined by Alex Heil, Senior Economist. They begin by examining the latest US Consumer Confidence Survey, discussing why confidence improved modestly in June, how consumers are thinking about inflation, interest rates, employment, and recession risks, and what those expectations could mean for spending in the months ahead. In the second half of the conversation, the focus shifts to one of the defining business challenges of our time: extreme heat. Alex explains how rising temperatures are affecting workers, productivity, energy systems, supply chains, and business operations around the world, while highlighting practical considerations for executives looking to build resilience.   For more from The Conference Board: US Consumer Confidence Forecast for the US Economy Global Economic Outlook

Ralph speaks to economist Dean Baker about the hypocrisies behind the supposed Social Security shortfall and Republicans' "waste, fraud, and abuse" panic. Then, Ralph talks to journalist and ocean activist David Helvarg about his new book: Forest of the Sea: The Remarkable Life and Imperiled Future of Kelp.Dean Baker is a Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, where he authors “Beat the Press,” his regular commentary on economic reporting. He has written several books, including Getting Back to Full Employment: A Better Bargain for Working People, The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive, False Profits: Recovering from the Bubble Economy, and The Conservative Nanny State: How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer.People will hear big numbers. They'll hear “$300 billion” and they'll go “Oh my God, that's a lot of money. That's money out of my pocket. It's causing the government deficit,” whatever. That's because they haven't given it any context…If we could, in any conceivable world, afford to pay $500 billion to increase the military budget, surely we can afford to pay $300 billion to ensure that everyone gets their Social Security benefits. It's just a case of: put it in context. I'm not going to say it's a small number. It isn't. But it's smaller— $300 billion is smaller than $500 billion, and that's really not a disputable point.Dean BakerWhere [DOGE] had the biggest consequences is with foreign aid. [Musk] just got a big kick out of that— USAID, he just shut it down. He boasted about that. He goes, “Last weekend I fed USAID into the wood chipper.” That's almost verbatim what he said. Now, what this meant was that you have people— and you could find waste in that program just like any other program, but this is a program that provided millions of people with medicine, with nutrition, with healthcare. And suddenly they couldn't get it…And Elon Musk was boasting that he killed that program. That's great. But millions of people, I mean, thankfully, I don't think it's millions yet, but if that program doesn't get restarted or funded somewhere else, you're going to see millions of people lose their lives.Dean BakerSo we're saying we have people on Medicaid that are committing fraud? No one gets a check from Medicaid. What would that even mean? Like, you signed up for Medicaid and you weren't eligible, so that would mean that they might be making a payment to a doctor or hospital that they don't actually have to make because you didn't qualify? I'm sure that happens sometimes but it's not like someone's living high on the hog because they were able to get Medicaid to pay for their doctor's visit when it actually shouldn't have.Dean BakerDavid Helvarg is a journalist and ocean activist. He is the founder and executive director of Blue Frontier, an ocean policy and media group, and producer of Rising Tide: The Ocean Podcast. He has produced more than 40 documentaries for media outlets, including PBS and the Discovery Channel. And he has written several books, including Blue Frontier, The War Against the Greens, and Forest of the Sea: The Remarkable Life and Imperiled Future of Kelp.I've been pushing with my colleagues in journalism the idea of the “blue beat.” The only resource in the ocean not fully exploited at this point is good investigative reporting and narrative storytelling. Because people don't connect with it, a lot of people think the environment ends at the shoreline. And that's really where 95% of the living space on the planet begins.David HelvargPeople at least know that corals are in trouble and they have some sense of what a coral reef is. People don't know that the planet has this other forest crisis—that kelp forests cover an area larger than the Amazon basin, and they're also being impacted by these marine heat waves that are growing every year. And as you add more heat to the system, it gets more energetic, which is why we have more and more extreme storms. I covered Katrina in 2005. I thought that would be a turning point (we had 1,800 people killed and a million environmental refugees). But the propaganda by the oil and gas industry is such that we keep having these disasters from a warming ocean planet, we see the melting of the Arctic ice, and instead of an alarm bell, it became a dinner bell for all the shipping industries and people who want to exploit the oil and gas in the increasingly open Arctic waters. So we're in this crisis point. I'm more frustrated than despairing because we know what the solutions are. It's creating the political will to enact them.David HelvargWhen I started Blue Frontier 20 years ago, the main threats were overfishing and pollution—oil, chemical, plastic, nutrient pollution. Today, that's being overwhelmed by these marine heat waves.David HelvargNews 6/26/26* Our top story this week comes to us from New York City, where democratic socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani has pulled off a stunning hat trick, with all three candidates for Congress endorsed by the Mayor winning their primaries on Tuesday. The most surprising victory is that of Darializa Avila Chevalier, who ousted the powerful incumbent Congressman Adriano Espaillat, head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, in New York's 13th congressional district. This primary had turned ugly, with Espaillat's campaign seeking to weaponize anti-Haitian racism in the Dominican community against Avila Chevalier, per the Haitian Times, despite the fact that she is not in fact Haitian. Impressive in another way is the victory of UAW organizer and New York State Assemblywoman Claire Valdez in New York's 7th district. Much has been made of this race being a proxy battle between Mamdani and his onetime supporter, retiring Congresswoman Nydia Velazquez, who backed her protégé, Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso to succeed her in this seat. Reynoso enjoyed the support of a broad range of New York elected officials – including Velazquez along with New York Attorney General Letitia James, Congressman Jerrold Nadler, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, and a broad range of unions and civil society groups, most notably the Working Families Party – but was absolutely trounced by Valdez, who won by over 20 points with the support of Mamdani and NYC-DSA. Meanwhile, in the 10th district, Brad Lander won by an even greater margin, outrunning incumbent Congressman Dan Goldman by over 30 points while running on a pro-Palestine platform in the most Jewish congressional district in America. These victories send a clear signal to the sclerotic, ossified leadership of the Democratic Party. The only question now is will they listen.* Beyond the congressional races, DSA won a remarkable number of races at the state level. According to Democratic Left, DSA will send as many as seven new legislators to Albany this cycle, for a total of “four state senators and 11 or 12 members of the state assembly.” As the magazine notes, this means that the “2027-2028 socialist bloc in Albany will be the second largest in a state legislature in U.S. history…behind 20 members in Wisconsin in 1919 and ahead of 14 members in Wisconsin in 1911.” Within New York City, DSA endorsed candidates won seven out of eight races for seats in the state legislature, per NYC-DSA. All told, it was a thunderous victory for the left in New York and raises the clout of Zohran and his compatriots to dizzying heights.* Meanwhile, in Washington DC, NOTUS reports the local DSA has exploded in membership, adding nearly 1,000 new members since this time last year. This growing bloc flexed its political muscle in the recent Democratic primaries, electing DSA members Janeese Lewis George for Mayor and Aparna Raj for the Ward 1 seat on the DC Council, as well as Oye Owolewa for an at-large seat. Axios notes that they are already eying, “two more openings — to fill Lewis George's Ward 4 seat and the at-large seat of Congress-bound Robert White.” If these votes go in DSA's favor, Lewis George could assume the mayoralty with a progressive majority of seven out of 13 members on the Council. Since her victory last Tuesday, Lewis George has emphasized her plan to lower utility costs through “expanding government solar,” and “balcony solar” for apartment tenants, optimizing efficiency at local government agencies and maximizing federal housing grants.* In Maryland, the results for DSA and progressives more generally were not quite so decisive but the left notched key victories nonetheless. DSA endorsed candidate McKayla Wilkes won her primary for the Charles County Commission and incumbent State Delegate Gabriel Acevero won reelection to his seat. Senators Dalya Attar and Nancy King, both centrist incumbents, lost to progressive challengers, per Maryland Matters. Will Jawando in Montgomery County won the County Executive position with broad support from the Maryland political establishment and progressives, while Maryland Senate Majority Leader Bill Ferguson fended off his first real challenge in years only after a last minute pledge to reverse his position on Maryland congressional redistricting. However, in the 5th congressional district, Steny Hoyer protégé and “AIPAC-backed” Adrian Boafo won the primary to succeed his mentor in Congress. According to the Jerusalem Post, “AIPAC poured $5.7 million into his campaign through its super PAC.” Former Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn came in a distant third place, despite scoring the endorsement of Nancy Pelosi. In short, the left has more work to do in order to build a political machine in Maryland as they have in New York and DC.* The next major contest between the factions of the party will occur next week in Colorado, where Melat Kiros, a DSA-backed progressive challenger born in 1997, is taking on Congresswoman Diana DeGette, who first took office that same year, per Zeteo. According to a poll conducted on behalf of the Kiros-aligned Justice Democrats, she leads DeGette by five points and she has now won the endorsement of Senator Bernie Sanders. Senator and former Governor John Hickenlooper is also facing a progressive primary challenge from State Senator Julie Gonzales and, according to the polls, he holds but a single digit lead, the Coloradan reports. We will be watching both of these races closely.* Meanwhile in Congress, the Senate has passed a new resolution on Iran, this time directing Trump to “remove U.S. armed forces from hostilities against Iran unless explicitly authorized by Congress, other than to defend America, an ally or partner from ‘imminent attack,'” according to the Wall Street Journal. The Journal notes that while the resolution is nonbinding, it was previously passed by the House, marking “the first time both chambers of Congress have passed the same measure to curb” presidential power to wage war on the Islamic Republic. The resolution passed 50-48, with the support of Republican Senators Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul. Senators Mitch McConnell and Dave McCormick were absent, and Senator John Fetterman again broke ranks with the Democrats to vote no.* Turning from the Senate floor to the shop floor, the United Auto Workers (UAW) concluded their 39th Constitutional Convention last week, with a momentous vote to divest the union's investments from Israel bonds. UAW's divestment decision is the latest victory in the campaign to disentangle the finances of American organized labor from the state of Israel, following the United Electrical Workers (UE) in 2015 and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) in 2023. UAW members also heard from Abdul El-Sayed, the candidate the union has endorsed in the Michigan Senate race. This contentious campaign will not be over until August, but El-Sayed, occupying the progressive lane, has moved into the lead and appears to be consolidating his lead, winning the endorsement of Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen just this week, per the Traverse City Record-Eagle. Van Hollen himself has recently begun hinting that he may seek higher office, recently telling NOTUS that he is “kicking the tires” on a 2028 presidential bid.* Turning to foreign affairs, this week saw the fall of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Starmer, a centrist who was elected Labour Party leader in 2020 following the ouster of leftist Jeremy Corbyn, has held the post of Prime Minister since 2024 when Labour won an historic landslide. Since then however, his personal approval rating and that of the party has cratered, creating space for the rise of the far-right Reform UK party. The BBC reports Starmer will remain in his post until a new leader is chosen from within the party, with the presumptive successor being MP Andy Burnham who recently beat back a challenge in his own seat by a Reform candidate by a large margin. Starmer is now set to be the shortest serving Labour PM in British history, while Burnham is set to become the UK's seventh Prime Minister in the last ten years, both indications of the precariousness of the post-Brexit British political order.* Our final two stories come to us from Latin America. First, in Bolivia, the country's union confederation has maintained a general strike against the right-wing government of Rodrigo Paz for nearly two months over his administration's initiatives to privatize government services and rescind the land reform program instituted over the last several decades of rule by the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). On June 19th, journalist Ollie Vargas reported that the government had blinked and signed an agreement to withdraw these plans in exchange for the unions ending the general strike. However, Vargas notes that “most affiliated unions state that they want to maintain strike until [the Paz government] resigns.”* Finally, in Colombia, the right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella emerged victorious from Sunday's runoff presidential election, defeating leftist Ivan Cepeda, the handpicked successor of sitting President Gustavo Petro, by less than one percentage point. In the immediate wake of the election, President Petro “alleged that Israel interfered” in the election, citing “irregularities in the country's vote counting process and calling for a full audit and recount,” per Drop Site News. However, by Wednesday, Cepeda himself formally conceded, framing his decision to do so as “an act of democratic responsibility, to contribute to harmony, peace and dialogue among Colombians,” Al Jazeera reports. As one of his first acts, Abelardo de la Espriella has committed to reestablishing diplomatic relations with Israel, which had been severed under President Petro.This has been Francesco DeSantis, with In Case You Haven't Heard. Get full access to Ralph Nader Radio Hour at www.ralphnaderradiohour.com/subscribe

Jeremy Siegel, Wharton Emeritus Professor and Senior Economist at WisdomTree, discusses Alan Greenspan's lasting impact on monetary policy, reflects on the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis, analyzes Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's early leadership, and explains why more forward-looking economic data could shape future interest rate decisions while also revisiting the long-term economic effects of Brexit. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jeremy Siegel, Wharton Emeritus Professor and Senior Economist at WisdomTree, discusses Alan Greenspan's lasting impact on monetary policy, reflects on the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis, analyzes Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's early leadership, and explains why more forward-looking economic data could shape future interest rate decisions while also revisiting the long-term economic effects of Brexit. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Henry Cook, Senior Economist, discuss what has been driving FX markets recently including UK political risk and diverging monetary policy expectations between Europe and the US. Will the USD continue to strengthen?  

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about parsing the wording and language of the Declaration of Independence. We visit with the President & CEO of the Bradley Foundation Rick Graber about the institutions in America that sustain Exceptionalism. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about the big cases to be announced by the Supreme Court, and we discuss the socialist candidates running for Congress in New York City. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about the contribution from artificial intelligence in preparing for travel and occupation on Mars. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, and Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

First-time homebuyers may get short windows of relief, but our co-head of Securitized Products Research James Egan and Senior Economist and Strategist in Morgan Stanley's Private Wealth Management Sarah Wolfe say the bigger story is a housing market resetting around a higher bar to entry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Housing Strategist and Co-Head of Securitized Products Strategy.Sarah Wolfe: And I'm Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist and Strategist within Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.James Egan: And today, why first-time homebuyers are facing a tougher path to ownership.It's Tuesday, June 23rd at 10am in New York.Buying a first-time home has always been a big step, but for a growing number of first-time buyers today, the goal can really seem insurmountable.Mortgage rates might be down from where they were in the second half of 2023, but they're significantly higher than they were for the several years before that. Monthly payments have roughly doubled for a median-priced home. And my colleague Jay Bacow and I have talked several times on this podcast about how many homeowners feel like they're locked into those lower rates.And they're staying put because they just don't want to give up a two or three-handle mortgage rate for something that has a six in front of it. But Sarah, as we know, this is bigger than just first-time buyers. Now, they often start the housing transaction chain, and when they can't buy, current owners may not be able to sell and trade up.That slows turnover across the market, and it also reduces activity tied to housing – from mortgages and renovations to moving and furniture. And it can keep would-be buyers renting for longer, which adds pressure to rental demand.So, how do you see this situation? Is this just another affordability squeeze, or has the housing market reset to a higher barrier to entry?Sarah Wolfe: I do think that we're on the upper bound of affordability pressures. This is about as bad as it's going to get. But as we discussed in our recent publication of The Economy Explained, unfortunately, we do think that the housing market is resetting at a structurally higher barrier to entry. There's a lot of reasons for that.The first is higher interest rates. Yes, mortgage rates are sitting around 6.5 percent, and they should come down from here, but maybe not better than 5.5 percent, right, in an optimistic scenario. The second is demographic pressures. Remember, we have this tremendous aging population of baby boomers. All of their children are now entering their prime home-buying years, so there's a lot of demand for ownership.The third and fourth ones are land regulation and permitting, which is at the state and local level, really hard to change. And the last one is climate risk. It's just raising insurance pricing and making it much more difficult to buy a home.So overall, we see a world where, yes, mortgage rates come down a bit, improve affordability marginally, but we think neutral and other interest rates at the longer end of the curve are going to be higher than the post-financial crisis period. And what we're going to see is that those forces are going to widen the divide between who can own a home and who cannot. And who gains from that wealth accumulation and who does not.James Egan: Right. So now, you mentioned where mortgage rates are today, above that 6 percent rate. Rates did briefly – in February, we got below 6 percent before they bounced back up here. Why did that short-lived relief matter so much?Sarah Wolfe: I think that short-lived relief showed us that moves in the mortgage rate make a difference, but things are so unaffordable that it didn't make that much of a difference.So, the dip below 6 percent was very exciting. It happened this past February. It was the first time that mortgage rates fell below 6 percent since 2022, and we saw a few things happen. First, it lowered the monthly payment for first-time homebuyers from about two point two thousand dollars a month to one point nine thousand.So makes a bit of a difference. And it lowered the share of income that goes towards monthly mortgage payments from about 26 percent of income to 22 percent, from peak to trough. So, that is a notable improvement. But what we saw in the new home sales data and the existing home sales data, that it did not drive people back into the housing market.I want to turn it back to you though, Jim, because you've actually done a lot of interesting work on this. And how this change in mortgage rates has changed the monthly cost that people have to pay for a median-priced home. Can you tell us a little bit more?James Egan: Sure. So, we talk about the lock-in effect a lot, and it's kind of easy to point to: Well, there are a lot of people with mortgage rates that are around 3 percent or 3.5 percent, and the prevailing rate's at 6 percent, and that's a lot higher, so they're locked in.But when we look at the actual numbers in terms of what we're asking a homeowner to do – to list their home for sale and move to another home today, pay off that existing mortgage, take out a new one. When you take into account how much higher home prices are today…You bought a home in 2016, for instance, right? Let's assume you refinanced in 2020 or 2021 if you still live there, right? Most homeowners did. So, you've actually taken your monthly payment, and it is lower today than it was when you bought your home in 2016. If we assume that your income has risen alongside just median household income over that time period, your monthly payment as a share of your income today is probably sub 8 percent.If you bought over the past three years, your monthly payment is a share of your income. You mentioned some numbers earlier. It's low to mid 20 percent. From a dollar amount perspective, if you were to pay off that 2016 mortgage, as an example, and take out one today, your payment is probably [$]13[00] or $1400 higher. It's like a 200 percent increase. That's very difficult economically for a lot of households, and that's the kind of physical manifestation of that lock-in effect.Now, Sarah, given this significant change in housing math, what does that mean for who is actually able to buy in this market?Sarah Wolfe: It's making who's able to buy into the market a lot more selective. So, what we're seeing is that first-time home buyers today are actually not meaningfully older. They're still about 36 years old, but they are a much more selective group financially. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York put out a great analysis on this recently, and they basically found that the first-time home buyer profile today is taking out a mortgage that's nearly $350,000, compared to $240,000 in 2019 and $200,000, a decade ago. So, significant increase in mortgage balances.At the same time, credit standards have tightened significantly, so that average credit score to get a mortgage has risen quite a bit over the last 5 to 10 years. And what this is doing is it's shifting who can buy and also where they can buy. So, we're seeing higher-quality home buyers moving to lower-income zip codes. So, buying cheaper homes in lower-income metro areas, and so it's wealthier buyers in lower-income areas.And that's the really big shift that we're seeing. It's a demand resorting story. And what we're also seeing, and we hear this a lot when we talk to our financial advisors and their clients, is that family is increasingly helping their other family members put that down payment down; in particular, parents helping their children buy that first home.So, we're seeing that first-time buyers may be feeling this pressure, right, when it comes to rates. How much of this affordability issue, though, is being driven by the locked-in effect specifically?James Egan: So, look, it's clearly playing a role. We just talked about some of the math behind that. But then when you look at what that means on a nationwide basis when it comes to inventory, when it comes to so many other aspects of this, that homeowner who's unwilling to give up that lower mortgage rate, that lower payment, right, their homes are off the market.Existing inventories for sale, they've picked up from historic lows in 2023, but they're still very, very low on a long-run basis. The fewer homes there are for sale, the more upward pressure or the absence of downward pressure that's going to put on home prices, right?We saw affordability plummet in 2022 and 2023 when rates backed up. We saw existing home sales really, really come down as a result. But home prices remained at record highs. They continued to set new record highs. For home prices to actually come down, right, you need people who are willing to sell at lower home prices.Sarah, you just mentioned that lending standards themselves remain tight.Sarah Wolfe: Mm-hmm.James Egan: Those forced sales, those tend to be distressed transactions. We don't see that distress in the market providing the inventory and the motivated inventory to lead to softer home prices. So, it's really that lack of inventory which we think is in large part driven by the lock-in effect that's kept home prices. And as a result, that piece of the affordability equation kind of stuck at these higher levels.Sarah Wolfe: I mean, it's really this vicious cycle, the locked-in effect making it difficult for entry-level buyers to get into the market – and then fewer existing homeowners sell or trade up or relocate. So, on and on it goes.Are there broader implications of this freeze?James Egan: Right. So, we just talked about what that means from an inventory perspective. And then if you think about affordability remaining challenged, lending standards themselves remaining tight, inventory remaining as low as it is, you could argue that we're at one of the more difficult times that we've seen for renters to exit rentership and step into homeownership.Now, there's a lot of different things that drive rent growth, and the fact that you have a stuck renter is just one of them. The other side of that equation can be the supply of rental units, right? So that's just a piece of the equation.But those are some of the externalities that we think about when it comes to how the tightness of the housing market – what the lock-in effect and what affordability is doing there. But outside of the housing market, Sarah, the wider economy, like how do these housing costs play a role there?Sarah Wolfe: Massive effect. Some of the work that we've done shows that housing affordability is the number one driver pushing down fertility rates in America. The number one driver. Above childcare costs, above finding a partner, finding a good job. It's housing affordability. So, you could see how that could pretty significantly ripple through the broader economy.But there's other components, right? So, as we discussed earlier, it's driving migration from unaffordable areas to more affordable regions. That has significant implications. And then putting my consumer economist hat on, as we discussed earlier in the podcast, when people buy a home, they tie themselves to that home. They spend money on couches, on beds, on TVs, right? Durable goods. And if we're going to have more people as renters for longer, that's going to expand the services economy at the expense of the goods economy.All right. Let's take a step back and think about where this is all going. It hasn't been a very optimistic conversation. Jim, what is the outlook for affordability in your view? Do we get anywhere back to the post-financial crisis period or even the pre-financial crisis period?James Egan: When it comes to the outlook for mortgage rates, the outlook for affordability, the outlook for the U.S. housing market – look, we just, throughout Morgan Stanley Research and Strategy, published our 2026 major outlook. From now through the end of 2027, we don't have conventional mortgage rates getting below 6 percent.We do have affordability improving on the margins. We have income growth exceeding home price appreciation that makes it a little bit better, but that doesn't get us back to the post-GFC affordability era, which was very, very affordable. Looking back over the past several decades, it gets us closer to where we were pre-GFC, not all the way back there.But when we think about how that ripples through the housing market and how we think about that evolving from here, look, we do think that the state of mortgage credit availability means there will be a lack of distress. We think that while affordability itself may be challenged and inventories may be low, there is some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where mortgage rates are or affordability is.We think we found that level. We think there's support for home sales at these current levels, and that combination of support for home sales, lack of inventory, means that home prices, very little room for them to grow from here. But we think they're going to be pretty supported.So, from a housing market perspective, at a ten-thousand-foot view, we're calling it 1-2 percent growth in sales, in home prices, well-supported. But the affordability outlook that we've outlined throughout this podcast – challenged to see a lot of acceleration.Now, when we pull it back to the first-time home buyer, based on our conversation, it seems that the key question is becoming less about when to buy, more about who can still afford to enter the market.But Sarah, it's really been great talking with you about the housing market today.Sarah Wolfe: It was great speaking with you, Jim.James Egan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today. ***Sarah Wolfe is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Thursday's show, we visit with the Co-Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh about information available for the upcoming elections in Collier and Lee Counties. Cato Institute Director of Health Policy Studies Michael Cannon and I discuss poor quality of care provided by some long-term care providers and what can be done about it. We also visit Senior Economist with CEI Ryan Young about the economy, yesterday's Fed meeting, employment, and inflation. We have terrific a terrific guest for Friday's show, author and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy about the wording and language of the Declaration of Independence. We visit with the Executive Director of Naples Pathways Coalition Michelle Avola about safety for pedestrians and cyclists on our streets. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about the big cases to be announced by the Supreme Court. We also visit with Professor and Author Larry Bell about the need for proof of citizenship to vote in Federal elections. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh, Michael Cannon from Cato Institute, and Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

This episode was recorded Tuesday, June 9th, before the current 'deal' was floated. Given world events, we decided to post this episode immediately as a special release, and deal or not, this conversation is an excellent overview of the issues and stakes of this evolving situation. In a media environment constantly contradicting itself, with every side proclaiming the advantage for themselves, the reality of what's happening in the Middle East gets lost amidst the day-to-day headlines. But for analysts who have been monitoring the underlying trends of the geopolitical gameboard for years, the direction is clear: the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz will likely not fully resolve within the next few months. If we truly accept the consequences of this, how will our global economy – built on interconnected supply chains and cheap energy – adapt to a geopolitical order fracturing before our eyes?  In this episode, Nate is joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for an unflinching analysis of the Hormuz crisis and the fundamental principles pointing toward the Strait's closure for several more months. Michael walks through multiple scenarios – a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), NATO military action, Chinese intervention behind the scenes – and explains why none of them offer an easy exit. The conversation expands to explore what this crisis means for the future of global energy trade, the emergence of rival production blocs, the collapse of demand-side macroeconomics, and the surprising potential for a more equitable world to emerge from the chaos. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or mostly closed into September, which countries hit their breaking point first, and will the order in which they break fundamentally change the balance of geopolitical power? How does everyday life change when price signals stop working and access is defined by availability rather than cost? And if this crisis truly accelerates the fracturing of our hyper-connected, globalized world into polarized blocs of energy and production, how might the disruption, for better or worse, shake up nearly a century of the macroeconomic theory that has shaped every part of our lives?  (Conversation recorded on June 9th, 2026)   About Michael Every: Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank with over two decades of experience. He analyzes major financial developments and contributes to the bank's various economic research publications. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners  

  A recent study from Tulane University is taking an honest look at American life. Holly and Greg are joined by Robert Spendlove, Senior Economist at Zions Bank, and Shawn Teigan, President of the Utah Foundation, to break down the results. 

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 15 years broadcasting on the internet. On Thursday's show, we visit with the Co-Founder and CEO of the Florida Citizens Alliance Keith Flaugh about the status of Artificial Intelligence legislation in Florida. Cato Institute Director of Health Policy Studies Michael Cannon and I discuss the outbreak if measles and the importance of the measles vaccine. We also visit Senior Economist with CEI Ryan Young about the conflict in Iran, inflation, interest rates, and the prices of precious metals. We also visit with the President of Accuracy in Media Adam Guillette about concerns about the proposed candidate to become the next President of the University of Florida, Stuart Bell. We have terrific a terrific guest for Friday's show, author and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this and past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

The global AI investment boom is gathering pace, with OpenAI signalling its intention to eventually join rivals Anthropic and SpaceX on the US sharemarket, potentially fuelling another wave of capital raising worth hundreds of billions of dollars across the industry. SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves speaks with Loftus Peak Chief Investment Officer Alex Pollak about what the AI listing race means for investors, while Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners breaks down a softer day on the ASX after the long weekend. Plus, Matthew Hassan, Senior Economist at Westpac, explains why Australians are turning away from property as the wisest place for savings and what weakening consumer sentiment could mean for the economy.

Neil Dutta is Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research (renMac). He leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analysing the US economy, the Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. He is considered a market economist, looking at the economic data and trying to highlight the risks to the consensus as he sees them.  Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada. In this podcast, we discuss: Neil's Wall Street "Origin Story" The Four Pillars of Economic Analysis The Real Income Squeeze AI, RSUs, and State Tax Revenues Pervasive Optimism and Reflexivity Risk The Fed's "Path of Least Resistance" The Warsh Nomination and Forward Guidance Productivity Boom or Demand Story? AI's Wealth Effect Beyond Accounting The 2027 Fiscal Headwind Substack vs. Institutional Research

Is the U.S. economy heading toward stability, or just navigating a new kind of volatility?In this episode of Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution, Kevin Brown and Tom Burton are joined by Taylor St. Germain, Senior Economist at ITR Economics, to unpack the forces reshaping wholesale distribution and manufacturing. From interest rate uncertainty and tariff refund chaos to AI adoption gaps and “profitless prosperity,” this conversation connects macroeconomic signals directly to distributor margin strategy, capital investment decisions, and long-term growth planning.What You'll Learn:Why the current economy feels like a “tale of two economies”, and how income distribution impacts demand across B2B marketsWhat the Federal Reserve is really watching (core inflation vs. trimmed mean metrics) and how rate decisions could affect CapEx, M&A, and working capitalHow tariff policy, Section 301 and 232 rulings, and refund uncertainty are influencing distributor pricing strategy and customer relationshipsWhat “profitless prosperity” means for 2026 and 2027, and how to protect margins during growth at a higher costWhy most AI initiatives in wholesale distribution are still efficiency plays—and what separates hype from scalable, repeatable AI-driven business processesEpisode Highlights:03:30 – Inside ITR Economics: forecasting accuracy, leading indicators, and preparing for downturns11:45 – May jobs report surprises: what strong hiring means for inflation and rate decisions14:20 – Interest rate outlook: hold, cut, or increase—and why energy prices complicate the Fed's move30:18 – Tariff escalation, Section 301 and 232 policies, and the ripple effect across distributors41:03 – Tariff refunds: unintended consequences for margins, pricing transparency, and customer trust58:26 – AI adoption in wholesale distribution: efficiency gains vs. true strategic transformation1:16:35 – “Growth at a higher cost”: how to navigate labor inflation, electricity costs, reshoring, and fiscal pressureMeet the Guest:Taylor St. Germain is a Senior Economist and Business Consultant at ITR Economics. He delivers economic keynotes nationwide and helps manufacturers and distributors identify leading indicators, forecast demand, and prepare for economic cycles with a 94.7% forecasting accuracy standard.Tools, Frameworks, and Strategies Mentioned:ITR Economics leading indicator forecasting modelsWeekly GDP tracking vs. lagging government metricsTrimmed mean inflation vs. core CPIEnterprise Growth Platform by LeadSmart TechnologiesAI-driven margin protection and data unification strategiesClosing Insight:“We are very optimistic about growth, but it's growth at a higher cost.”The second half of the decade presents opportunities for wholesale distributors and manufacturers, but only for those who actively manage labor inflation, tariff exposure, electricity costs, and AI investment discipline. Growth is not the question. Margin strategy is.Leave a Review: Help us grow by sharing your thoughts on the show.Learn more about the LeadSmart AI B2B Sales Platform: https://www.leadsmarttech.com/Join the conversation each week on LinkedIn Live.Want even more insight to the stories we discuss each week? Subscribe to the Around The Horn Newsletter.You can also hear the podcast and other excellent content on our YouTube Channel.Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or TikTok.

Educator and author Arjun Jayadev joins This Is Hell! to talk about the new book published by The University Of Chicago Press that he co-wrote with J.W. Mason called “Against Money”, which talks about how money has gotten to dominate the lives of humans world wide as it become the most influential human creation. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/A/bo265118979.html Arjun Jayadev is professor of economics and director of the Centre for the Study of the Indian Economy at Azim Premji University in India. He has previously taught at the University of Massachusetts-Boston. He is also a Senior Economist at the Institute for New Economic Thinking. His research combines quantitative and theoretical analysis of Finance, Development, Political Economy and Intellectual Property. He is also a fellow at the Groundwork Collective. https://groundworkcollaborative.org/ We will have new installments of Rotten History and Hangover Cure. We will also be sharing your answers to this week's Question from Hell! from Patreon. Help keep This Is Hell! completely listener supported and access bonus episodes by subscribing to our Patreon: www.patreon.com/thisishell