Podcasts about senior economist

Luke Grant chats with Senior Economist at Domain, Dr Joel Bowman, about all the latest happenings on the Sydney and Brisbane Real Estate Markets. For all the latest listings and real estate news go to www.domain.com.au NSW: 40 Blue Seas Parade, Lennox Head NSW 2478 5 bed, 3 bath, 6 car A one-of-a-kind family oasis in a rare and prized beachside address 1,162sqm allotment with landscaped gardens and beach and ocean panoramas stretch up and down the coastline Double-height ceilings ensure an uplifting sense of space Wide entertainment terraces, swimming pool, spa and outdoor kitchen High-end chefs' kitchen with island bench and spacious butler's pantry Customised home theatre with tiered seating and superior acoustic design Basement 6 car garage, gym and internal lift connecting all three levels QLD: 160 Tallai Road, Tallai QLD 4213 10 bed, 11 bath, 9 car Arrival courtyard with 75,000 hand-laid cobblestones and garden wall and central fountain representing the five elements, finished in 24-carat-gold mosaics Main living area centred around a stone fireplace with triple-aspect views Tasting room with two dry-aged fridges, stone table and bar Whisky bar with marble and bronze finishes Manhattan dining lounge with 5.5m sofa and skyline views Private poker room with sound insulation, cigar ventilation and built-in screens 16-seat cinema with 300-inch screen, Meridian sound, candy bar and sports bar 152m2 wellness centre with gym, yoga studio, sauna and steam room Dual hydrotherapy pools and stocked hydration stations 160m go-kart track, 45m putting green, and basketball court 20m heated infinity pool with gold mosaics, limestone surrounds and skyline views Three self-contained guest and caretaker houses. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jeremy Siegel, Emeritus Professor of Finance at the Wharton School and Senior Economist at WisdomTree, analyzes the Federal Reserve's latest rate decisions, the evolving U.S. labor market amid AI-driven changes, and the global economic implications of renewed U.S.-China trade negotiations. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

$25 trillion! This is the sum injected into the economy by Governments and Central Banks to protect a significant portion of the global economy during the Covid crisis. Where does this funding come from, and what are the impacts of such government spending? Is this strategy sustainable in the long term? These are important questions to consider, particularly since we are in a year where half of the world's population is heading to the polls and many candidates are advocating for a 'whatever it takes' approach.Even if we are near full employment, witnessing rising wages, have defeated the Coronavirus, and have inflation levels gradually approaching central bank objectives, let us not overlook the consequences of this approach. The massive government spending to save lives, known as 'whatever it takes,' is not without costs. As the saying goes, there‘s no such thing as a free lunch! The result? Endemic sovereign debt and budget deficits – a metaphorical portrayal of 'original sin.'In this episode of 2050 Investors, Kokou Agbo-Bloua will delve into sovereign debt sustainability and explore how governments can balance their finances amid high-interest rates while meeting the demands of voters. Joining the discussion is Anatoli Annenkov, Societe Generale's Senior Economist for Europe, who will analyse the relationship between public debt and central banks. He will explain how central banks can help stabilize sovereign debt crises and shed light on the importance of their independence.CreditsPresenter & Writer: Kokou Agbo-Bloua. Producers & Editors: Jovaney Ashman, Jennifer Krumm, Louis Trouslard.Sound Director: La Vilaine, Pierre-Emmanuel Lurton. Music: Cézame Music Agency. Graphic Design: Cédric Cazaly.This episode is a reworked replay based on its original version. (link to the original version)Whilst the following podcast discusses the financial markets, it does not recommend any particular investment decision. If you are unsure of the merits of any investment decision, please seek professional advice. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating over 14 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we continue our discussion of Trump's expansion of executive authority with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy. Professor and author Andrew Joppa and I discuss a variety of topics including NYC Mayoral candidate Mamdani, Milei's reelection in Argentina, a rape case in Sweden, and the Obergefell Supreme Court decision. Please join us on Thursday's show. We'll visit with Florida Citizens Alliance Co-Founder Keith Flaugh, Cato Institute's Michael Cannon, Senior Economist for the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and former Mayor of Naples, Bill Barnett. Access this or past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

In this week's Cents of Security Podcast, I spoke with Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers, about the latest CPI report and its ripple effects across the economy. Why inflation came in below expectations How housing costs drove the miss Why core inflation matters more than headline What it means for rate cuts and market momentum How Social Security and geopolitics factor in Jose's insights help decode the macro puzzle and what investors should watch next.

Luke Grant chats with Senior Economist at Domain, Dr Joel Bowman, about all the latest happenings on the Sydney and Brisbane Real Estate Markets. For all the latest listings and real estate news go to www.domain.com.au NSW: 11 Gilligans Road, Dural NSW 2158 7 bed, 3 bath, 4 car Entertainers' sanctuary on 5 acres Single level residence, beautifully renovated with an expansive open plan living and dining zone An entertainer's dream, the gourmet kitchen boasts an adjoining meals area, island bench setting and a concealed butler's pantry Views to the fully tiled saltwater pool, the perfect haven for year-round entertaining QLD: 2124 Maleny-Stanley River Road, Booroobin QLD 4552 8 bed, 7 bath, 18 car Vast 42-hectare property There are five separate residences, an infinity pool, steam room, ice bath, cinema Six-car garage, Turning circle driveway and electric gates, boxing gym and a network of private walking trails. Alfresco decks & kitchen | Infinity-edge pool 2 paddocks | Orchard | 3 dams | Natural creeks See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Social Security recipients will see an extra $56 a month starting in 2026, but will it make a dent in rising costs? Senior Economist with Zions Bank, Robert Spendlove, joins us to break down the new cost-of-living adjustment, fresh inflation numbers, and the staggering national debt now topping $38 trillion.

Senior economist at Elliot D. Pollack & Company, Danny Court, joins Arizona’s Morning News to talk about how many people in Arizona are receiving SNAP benefits – and what factors are contributing to preventing people from receiving these benefits 

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In this episode, Dominic Bowen and Dr. Moshe Lander (put link to guest profile) discuss the recent spike in gold prices in $ per ounce, which is unprecedented. Find out more about what pushes gold trends, from uncertain geopolitical trends to Trump's threats on tariffs, and an overall mistrust in governments and institutions worldwide. The conversation also addresses the psychological aspect of the trust in gold as a secure investment coming from humanity's social and economic history, and central banks' reserves, although Dominic and Moshe examine the risks of such high trust in limited goods whose value depends on demand and decision-makers. Dr. Moshe Lander is a Canadian economist and Senior Lecturer in the Department of Economics at Concordia University, where he has taught since 2013, and a sessional instructor at Dalhousie University. Before joining academia full-time, he served as Senior Economist with the Government of Alberta from 2003 to 2007. His fields of expertise include public economics, international trade and finance, economic policy, and the economics of sports, gaming, and gambling. Beyond academia, Dr. Lander is a well-known media commentator who frequently appears across Canadian television, radio, print, and online platforms to discuss economic, business, and policy developments. Renowned for his engaging and accessible style, he has been recognized multiple times as Concordia's Newsmaker of the Month, most recently in March 2025, for his sharp analysis of issues such as anti-tariff campaigns and the fiscal impact of carbon tax reforms.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you're a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe's leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe's leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today's business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge. Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!Tell us what you liked!

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating over 14 years broadcasting on the internet. On Wednesday's show, we continue our discussion of Trump's expansion of executive authority with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy. Professor and author Andrew Joppa and I discuss a variety of topics including the “No Kings” protests, peace efforts in Gaza and Israel, NYC Mayoral candidate Mamdani, and the views of young Republicans. Please join us on Thursday's show. We'll visit with Florida Citizens Alliance Co-Founder Keith Flaugh, Cato Institute's Michael Cannon, Senior Economist for the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young, and former Mayor of Naples, Bill Barnett. Access this or past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

IFPRI-AMIS Seminar Series | IFPRI Policy Seminar Navigating the Food Security Nexus: Commodity Prices, Inflation, and Exchange Rates Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) October 21, 2025 Join us for a seminar exploring the complex interplay between global food commodity prices and domestic food price inflation, and the implications for food security. Drawing on recent analytical work and market monitoring, the session will examine how international price movements transmit through domestic markets, often exacerbated by exchange rate fluctuations and macroeconomic volatility. Fluctuations in exchange rates pose an additional and compounding challenge in how global food commodity prices affect domestic markets. Even when international commodity prices level off, a depreciating currency can still lead to higher local food prices, especially in countries that rely heavily on imports. We will examine why food inflation has disproportionately affected low-income countries—where currency depreciation has amplified the impact of rising global prices, pushing nutritious diets further out of reach for vulnerable populations. The discussion will also highlight how broader macroeconomic conditions, including labor costs and profit margins, have intensified price pressures beyond what commodity shocks alone can explain. Insights from recent studies will shed light on the speed and asymmetry of price transmission, the role of trade integration, and the implications for food security and nutrition. We will also discuss policy responses and market transparency mechanisms—such as AMIS—that can help mitigate volatility and improve resilience. Moderator Opening Remarks Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary Presentation: Addressing high food price inflation for food security and nutrition David Laborde, Director, Agrifood Economics and Policy Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Panel Discussion Moderated by Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary and Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus, IFPRI Helia Costa, Economist, Structural Policy and Research Division of the Economics Department, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Fabio Santeramo, Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Sciences, Food, Resource Economics and Engineering, University of Foggia Michael Adjemian, Professor, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia Karl Pauw, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Closing Remarks Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus, IFPRI More about this Event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/navigating-the-food-security-nexus-commodity-prices-inflation-and-exchange-rates/ Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event announcements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription

Policy Seminar | IFPRI Policy Seminar Tackling extreme poverty and financing for food systems in Africa Organized by IFPRI and partners on the margins of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings October 17, 2025 Join speakers from IFPRI, IFAD, UNU-WIDER and the World Bank for a high-level seminar exploring two major African priorities – poverty reduction and food systems transformation in sub-Saharan Africa. Speakers will highlight the need to make progress on reducing poverty in fragile and conflict-affected areas across the continent, and the need to examine how most effectively to finance food systems amidst declining external funding flows. An inaugural World Bank- UNU-WIDER report on poverty and fragility, being previewed at this seminar, indicates that Sub-Saharan Africa has become the epicenter of the poverty–fragility nexus, with some 70% of people in fragile and conflict affected areas now living in the region and half of the world's extreme poor projected to reside in fragile SSA states by 2030. The Africa Report on External Development Financial Flows to Food Systems, recently released by IFAD, AKADEMIYA2063, and IFPRI—analyzes the volume and composition of development finance directed toward African food systems, and implications of decreasing external flows, also for national financing strategies. This timely discussion will spotlight urgent financing needs and policy pathways to reduce poverty in the most vulnerable regions of Africa and strengthen food systems across the continent. It will also underscore the critical role of robust evidence and data-driven analysis in guiding effective financing strategies and policies —particularly as governments and development partners confront the dual pressures rising fragility and declining external flows. By grounding decisions in rigorous research, stakeholders can better align resources with impact and chart more resilient, equitable paths forward. Opening Remarks Luis Felipe López-Calva, Global Director, Poverty Global Department, World Bank Group Patricia Justino, Director Designate, United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) Report Presentations Breaking the Fragility-Poverty Trap (World Bank Group, UNU WIDER) Maria Eugenia Genoni, Senior Economist, Poverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank Africa Report – External Development Financial Flows to Food Systems (IFAD, AK2063 and IFPRI): Key Findings John Ulimwengu, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI High-level Panel Kamal Gutale, Permanent Secretary for the Office of the Prime Minister of the Federal Government of Somalia Enilde Sarmento, Macroeconomist-Adviser, International Monetary Fund (IMF); member of Mozambique's delegation to the annual meetings; former National Director, Directorate of Economic Policies and Development, Ministry of Economy and Finance Diane Menville, Associate Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Financial Operations Department, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) Ana María Ibáñez, Vice President for Sectors and Knowledge, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) Johan Swinnen, Director General, IFPRI Moderator Charlotte Hebebrand, Director of Communications & Public Affairs, IFPRI More about this Event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/tackling-extreme-poverty-and-financing-for-food-systems-in-africa/ Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event announcements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription

How is the mass adoption of AI changing the labour market? Could this technology shift the balance of geopolitical power? And can investors access this theme without increasing concentration risk? In this week's episode, three L&G experts share their insights. Our speakers are: James Carrick, Senior Economist and Strategist Matthew Rodger, Economist Andrzej Pioch, Fund Manager This episode was recorded on 10 October 2025 and is hosted by Harry Brooks, European Content Manager. Sources: AI as percentage of US Q1 GDP: L&G calculations, Macrobond, Artificial Analysis, AI spend includes computer, software, data centre and electricity investment. Investment not adjusted for import component as at 30 June 2025. US and China make up 80% of AI: EPOCH AI as at June 2025. AI spillover and multiplier effects: Honey, AI Capex is Eating the Economy US Census Bureau estimate of AI capex: Macrobond as at June 2025. For professional investors only. Capital at risk. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Past performance is not a guide to the future. Securities mention for illustrative purposes only. Reference to a particular security is on a historic basis and does not mean that the security is currently held or will be held within an L&G portfolio. The above information does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

The buying window could be closing in these housing markets. For the first time in years, inventory is dropping in once-strong buyer's markets. Sellers are tired of waiting for offers and refusing to get lowballed, so more are staying put. With less inventory comes more competition, rising prices, and vulnerable buyers. So, which markets are most at risk? Senior Economist at Zillow, Kara Ng, joins us to share the latest data on the housing market. Buyers have realized mortgage rates probably aren't going back to 5% any time soon, but with sellers opting to stay in their homes, are would-be homebuyers stuck between high rent and high mortgage payments? But there's good news for new investors and first-time homebuyers. A new resource allowing buyers to get down payment assistance was recently released, helping those who don't have tens of thousands saved for a down payment. Want a return to an affordable housing market? Kara shares the single biggest variable that's stopping affordability (it's not mortgage rates) and how, if we can solve it, every American could benefit.  In This Episode We Cover Zillow's latest housing market update, price prediction, and mortgage rate forecast Buyer's market no more? How sellers are taking their housing market power back  The real reason why no one is moving (and why the housing market is stuck) Zillow's new down payment assistance resource for first-time homebuyers  The one true solution to our affordability problem (it isn't lowering interest rates) And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1185 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Arbeit muss sich lohnen und der Sozialstaat sollte die richtige Balance zwischen Unterstützung und dem Setzen von Anreizen finden. Die aktuelle Diskussion zum Bürgergeld dreht sich genau um diese Frage: Ist die Hilfe ausreichend oder zu großzügig bemessen, um einen Arbeitsanreiz zu setzen? Die Hans-Böckler-Stiftung des Deutschen Gewerkschaftsbundes (DGB) versuchte in einer Studie nachzuweisen, dass sich Arbeit immer lohnt. Die Stiftung geht von einem Vergleich zwischen nicht arbeitenden Bürgergeldempfängern und Mindestlohnarbeitern mit 38,2 Arbeitsstunden pro Woche aus. Je nach Wohnort und den dortigen Wohnkosten ergeben sich dabei im Vergleich zum Bürgergeldbezug Stundenlöhne von 2,48 Euro bis 4,33 Euro, die einen Lohnabstand von monatlich 379 bis 662 Euro (Single-Haushalt) ergeben. Damit dieser Abstand überhaupt erreichbar ist, müssen aber gegebenenfalls Ansprüche auf Sozialleistungen wie Wohngeld, Kindergeld oder Kinderzuschlag einbezogen werden. Es darf bezweifelt werden, dass derartige Stundenlöhne ausreichend große Anreize bilden, um Menschen zur Arbeit zu motivieren und die Sozialsysteme zu entlasten.Schon vor der Einführung des Bürgergeldes gab es Kritik an seiner Anreizwirkung. In der 159. Episode des Podcasts sprach Daniel Stelter mit dem Bürgergeld-Experten Holger Schäfer, Senior Economist für Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit am Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft in Köln. Zeit für ein bto REFRESH.HörerserviceStudie Bürgergeld statt Hartz IV (...) des DIW: https://is.gd/lqplUE Studie Lohnt sich Arbeit in Deutschland noch? der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung des DGB: https://is.gd/APIxwe beyond the obviousNeue Analysen, Kommentare und Einschätzungen zur Wirtschafts- und Finanzlage finden Sie unter www.think-bto.com.NewsletterDen monatlichen bto-Newsletter abonnieren Sie hier.RedaktionskontaktWir freuen uns über Ihre Meinungen, Anregungen und Kritik unter podcast@think-bto.com.Handelsblatt – Ein exklusives Angebot für alle „bto – beyond the obvious – featured by Handelsblatt“-Hörer*innen: Testen Sie Handelsblatt Premium 4 Wochen lang für 1 Euro und bleiben Sie zur aktuellen Wirtschafts- und Finanzlage informiert. Mehr unter: handelsblatt.com/mehrperspektiven Oder lesen Sie das Handelsblatt ein Jahr lang mit 30 % Rabatt und erhalten Sie tiefgehende Einblicke in Wirtschaft, Politik, Finanzwelt und Technologie. Zum Angebot: handelsblatt.com/bto30Werbepartner – Informationen zu den Angeboten unserer aktuellen Werbepartner finden Sie hier. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wall Street’s on a high even as Washington shuts down. The Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, and gold all hit record levels to start the week, powered by fresh AI momentum and a wave of dealmaking. OpenAI’s multibillion-dollar partnership with AMD has reignited investor enthusiasm, while Fifth Third Bancorp’s takeover of Comerica signals new life in M&A. Dan Koh speaks with José Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers to unpack what’s really driving the risk-on mood, the data gaps left by the government blackout, and how investors should read Japan’s sudden leadership change under Sanae Takaichi.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wie transparent ist der Wohnungsmarkt wirklich? In dieser Folge von IMMOblick sprechen Peter Ache und Robert Krägenbring mit Dr. Ralph Henger, Senior Economist am Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft in Köln und Mitglied im Rat der Immobilienweisen. Im Mittelpunkt stehen die aktuelle Wohnungsbaukrise, fehlende Daten und die Frage, welche Reformen wirklich notwendig wären, um den Markt besser steuern zu können. Warum scheitern Vorhaben wie eine Baufertigstellungsstatistik oder ein Mietregister in Deutschland? Welche Rolle spielt Transparenz für die Wirksamkeit staatlicher Maßnahmen – und wie können Politik, Wirtschaft und Kommunen gemeinsam handeln, um bezahlbaren Wohnraum zu schaffen? Dr. Henger gibt Einblicke in die zentralen Forderungen des Frühjahrsgutachtens der Immobilienweisen: von beschleunigten Genehmigungsverfahren über steuerliche Reformen bis hin zu effizienteren Förderstrukturen. Die Diskussion zeigt eindrücklich, wie eng Datenlage, Politikgestaltung und Marktentwicklung miteinander verknüpft sind – und warum Deutschland dringend bessere Grundlagen braucht, um den Wohnungsmarkt zukunftsfähig zu machen. Weitere Informationen findest du hier: Webseite: ⁠https://dvw.de/publikationen/immoblick⁠ Social Media: ⁠LinkedIn⁠ | ⁠Instagram⁠ | ⁠Facebook

Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers, joins Mary MacNamara to explore how AI infrastructure is reshaping GDP, energy demand, and the future of U.S. industrialization.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating over 14 years broadcasting on the internet. On Tuesday's show, we visit with Florida State Senator Kathleen Passidomo about the controversy over the Naples Airport governance, the Trump library, and some thoughts on the next legislative session. We visit with Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young about the possible consequences of the pending government shutdown. Boo Mortenson and I discuss where people get information and news. We also visit with Linda Harden about the James Comey indictment and other Grand Juries that have been convened. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this or past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms. xqi5&st=bmgf9390&dl=0

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating over 14 years broadcasting on the internet. On Tuesday's show, we visit with Florida State Senator Kathleen Passidomo about the controversy over the Naples Airport governance, the Trump library, and some thoughts on the next legislative session. We visit with Senior Economist from … The post Where Do People Get Their News? appeared first on Bob Harden Show.

Here are three reasons why you should listen to this episode:Learn how interest rate cuts actually affect variable and fixed-rate mortgages, and what that means for your next renewal.Understand the regional differences shaping Canada's housing markets, including why now may be an opportunity for condo buyers.Gain practical strategies for staying financially resilient, from managing employment uncertainty to making smart spending decisions.ResourcesCIBC's "Smart Advice" Podcast and Website - Website | Apple Podcast | SpotifyVisit CIBC for more Smart AdviceAndrew Grantham: LinkedIn | CIBC Author ProfileEpisode Highlights[00:20] Canada's Economic CrossroadsCanadians are facing uncertainty as interest rates shift, the Canadian housing market fluctuates, and recession fears dominate the headlines.Rising costs and uneven recovery raise important questions about affordability and financial security.Host Carissa Lucreziano introduces guest Andrew Grantham, Senior Economist at CIBC Capital Markets.Andrew is well-positioned to explain today's challenges, connecting big-picture trends to the financial decisions Canadians face. [01:10] Interest Rates in the Canadian Housing MarketThe Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve recently trimmed rates, offering a small sense of relief.For some households, variable-rate mortgages and credit lines see immediate benefits, while fixed rates remain largely unchanged.Carissa asks Andrew about the broader impact on the Canadian housing market, from overheated urban centers to smaller regions.Andrew explains why local differences matter, noting ongoing weakness in Toronto and Vancouver but signs of recovery elsewhere.[04:16] Andrew: “We are seeing that, particularly with the population growth we've seen in some of the prairie provinces, for example, there is the demand there, and even though building has increased in those provinces, we are still seeing that the housing market there is reasonably strong and prices are continuing to rise a little bit.”[04:41] The Condo Market in FocusCondos, particularly in Toronto, are experiencing weak demand and falling prices.Developers struggle to pre-sell units, slowing the pace of new construction.Andrew explains how reduced supply could eventually stabilize the market as demand slowly returns.He advises Canadians not to wait too long, as even a small rise in demand could shift conditions.[06:02] Are Canadians Waiting on the Sidelines?Many Canadians wonder if mortgage rates will fall further before they make financial moves.Andrew notes that while rates are lower than last year, they will likely not return to pandemic-era levels.He emphasizes that rates today are closer to 2019 levels, when the market was more balanced.His advice: focus on manageable payments and comfort, rather than trying to time the market.[07:40] Canada–U.S. Trade Ties and Sector PressuresCanada's economy is deeply linked to U.S. policy decisions, creating ripple effects north of the border.Andrew discusses Mark Carney's approach to strengthening ties while avoiding rushed trade deals.While many goods still enter the U.S. tariff-free, sector-specific tariffs continue to impact industries like steel, aluminum, and autos.Ontario and Quebec face the greatest pressure, while most other provinces remain less affected.[10:35] Consumer Spending and the Canadian DollarWith Black Friday approaching, Canadians are weighing the cost of cross-border shopping.[11:30] Andrew: “In terms of that cross-border shopping activity, a big theme over this year, even before talking about those Black Friday Sales, has been the drive to buy Canadian.”A weaker Canadian dollar makes U.S. purchases more expensive, but a “buy Canada” trend is emerging.Andrew notes that spending at home could benefit local retailers this holiday season.He explains how the loonie's movement is tied to U.S. dollar strength, limiting expectations for quick improvement.[12:18] Is Canada in a Recession?Headlines continue to question whether Canada is already in a recession.Andrew clarifies the difference between the technical definition and how people actually feel.While contraction occurred earlier in the year, he expects recovery in the second half.For many in Ontario and B.C., falling home prices and job struggles still make it feel like a recession.[15:48] Andrew: “What's interesting though, in the current situation is that that excess increase in unemployment for young people has gone above and beyond even what we would typically see given what's happened on the economy as a whole, on a national basis.”[17:23] Building Financial ResilienceCanadians want to know how to protect themselves in uncertain times.Andrew advises setting money aside for emergencies and focusing on long-term goals.He emphasizes avoiding short-term “headline risks” and instead building steady resilience.His message: consistent saving and a long-term view remain the strongest strategies.[18:55] Looking Ahead: Opportunities Beyond UncertaintyCanada is adjusting to a new trade environment, higher but stabilizing interest rates, and shifting consumer patterns.Andrew highlights Canada's strengths, including infrastructure investment, natural resources, and a skilled labor force.He notes that while the economy feels heavy today, long-term prospects remain strong.Final takeaway: Canadians should focus on opportunities ahead, not just the short-term noise.About Andrew GranthamAs Senior Economist with CIBC Capital Markets, Andrew Grantham has a wide range of experience in different areas of economic and market forecasting, providing both a Canadian and global perspective. His focus includes interest rates, the Canadian housing market, consumer spending, and trade. Through his work, he has helped Canadians understand how big trends connect to everyday financial decisions. Andrew often shares insights on mortgage affordability, youth unemployment, and cross-border ties.Andrew blends data-driven analysis with a practical perspective on the Canadian economy. In his analyses, he highlights both the challenges and the opportunities that lie ahead. His goal is to help Canadians move past headlines and focus on what matters for long-term resilience and growth.Connect with Andrew Grantham on his LinkedIn or CIBC Author Profile.Enjoyed this Episode?If you did, be sure to subscribe and share it with your friends!Post a review and share it! If you enjoyed tuning in, leave us a review. You can also send this to your friends and family. Interest rates, jobs, and trade are all shifting. The Canadian housing market is fluctuating depending on where you go. This creates a landscape that feels uncertain but also full of possibility. Discover how these changes connect, and learn what they mean for your financial decisions today and for the years ahead.Have any questions? You can connect with me on LinkedIn or through CIBC's Facebook, or Instagram.Thanks for tuning in! For more updates, visit our website. You can also listen to more amazing episodes on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

Jeremy Siegel, Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School and Senior Economist at WisdomTree, discusses the Federal Reserve's latest rate cuts, divisions within monetary policy, inflation and employment trends, and how artificial intelligence is shaping long-term economic growth and market performance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mary MacNamara and Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers, break down four major economic data surprises—from GDP and durable goods to unemployment claims and home sales. What do these signals mean for the U.S. economy, interest rates, and the housing market?

Top U.S. business leaders are quietly fuming. They say Washington's policies hurt innovation, raise costs, and undermine competitiveness. But why won't they say so openly? What risks do they fear? Under what conditions could the White House reverse course? Host TU Yun joins Harvey Dzodin, Senior Fellow, Center for China and Globalization, David Blair, Senior Economist, Alliance of Global Talent Organizations, and Alex Sili Zhou, Associate Professor of Economics and Finance, University of Macau to dig into the closed-door frustrations of American CEOs, explore the global ripple effects, and ask what it all means for U.S.–China business ties.

Grocery prices are up, the Utah unemployment rate is stable, and the federal interest rate is down. What does this all mean for our pocketbooks? Robert Spendlove, Senior Economist with Zions Bank, joins the show.

Many are predicting a fall in GDP for quarter two. Stats NZ will release the figures later this morning, just before 11am. The Reserve Bank expects a 0.3% drop while bank economists are more pessimistic. Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon told Mike Hosking there are worrying trends. He says the construction sector is still in a downturn, while manufacturing has seen a fall after a decent first quarter. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Interest rate news Guest: Andrew Grantham, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CIBC Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Changes to immigration law in Canada? Guest: Daniel Kingwell, Immigration lawyer Will Stanley Park bike lanes enrage the public? Guest: Tom Digby, park board commissioner Why are recycling rates so much lower in condos than houses? Guest: Karen Storry, a senior engineer with Metro Vancouver and an expert in zero waste policies. How are younger Canadians feeling about our role in Ukraine and Gaza? Guest Dr. Jack Jedwab, President of the Association for Canadian Studies Interest rate news Guest: Andrew Grantham, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CIBC Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

IFPRI-AMIS Seminar Series | IFPRI Policy Seminar Fertilizers in a Shifting Global Landscape – Trends, Trade, and Sustainability Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) September 16, 2025 Fertilizers—both mineral and organic—are indispensable inputs in modern agriculture. Yet, recent years have seen unprecedented volatility in fertilizer prices, trade flows, and policy responses, reshaping the landscape for producers, traders, and farmers alike. This event will explore the evolving dynamics of the global fertilizer market and its critical role in food security and agricultural sustainability. Drawing on the latest research and market intelligence from AMIS, FAO's Food Outlook and IFPRI, this session will unpack the key drivers behind recent market disruptions and recovery patterns, including the environmental footprint of fertilizer use, and a variety of policy developments affecting market access and affordability. Opening Remarks Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary Charlotte Hebebrand, Director of Communications and Public Affairs, IFPRI Presentations Current Situation on the Fertilizer Markets: Delphine Leconte-Demarsy, Fertilizer consultant, Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) US Tariffs and Fertilizer Trade: Shawn Arita, Associate Director and Associate Research Professor, Agricultural Risk Policy Center, North Dakota State University (NDSU) Policy Reforms and Fertilizer Use: Fertilizer Subsidies and Alternatives: Ruth Hill, Director, Markets, Trade, and Institutions, IFPRI Discussion Moderated by Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary and Charlotte Hebebrand, Director of Communications and Public Affairs, IFPRI Maria Antip, Fertilizer consultant, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Veronica Nigh, Senior Economist, The Fertilizer Institute Links: More about this Event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/fertilizers-in-a-shifting-global-landscape-trends-trade-and-sustainability/ Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event announcements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription

The United States is seeing more of the unemployed than job openings for the first time since 2021. Greg and Holly speak with Senior Economist with Zions Bank, Robert Spendlove, about what this means for the job market.

Chuck Gascon, Senior Economist in the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, joins Megan Lynch in-studio following the release of the Beige Book.

Sal Guatieri is the Director and Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this special Labor Day edition of Bloomberg Daybreak US, host Nathan Hager speaks with:1) Sarah House, Wells Fargo senior economist and Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Market on the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve and Fed independence. 2) Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy, RBC Capital Markets and Brian Levit, Global Market Strategist at Invesco on what to expect out of markets in the fall 3) Burt Flickinger, Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, on the outlook for the retail sector. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is now a good time to buy real estate? In this episode of The Real Wealth Show, Kathy Fettke is joined by Zillow's Senior Economist, Orphe Divounguy, to break down the latest trends in supply and demand, rental demand, housing permits versus starts, and what these signals mean for home prices. You'll also hear insights on where investors should be looking to buy real estate now, and what may happen with interest rates in the months ahead. If you want to stay ahead of the curve in real estate, this market update is packed with data and expert insights you can use today. LINKS CHECK OUT OUR NEW WEBSITE & BECOME A MEMBER (IT'S FREE)! https://realwealth.com/join-step-1 FOLLOW OUR PODCASTS The Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast https://link.chtbl.com/RWS Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast: https://link.chtbl.com/REN FREE RealWealth® EDUCATION & TOOLS RealWealth Market Reports: https://realwealth.com/learn/best-places-to-buy-rental-property/ RealWealth Videos: https://realwealth.com/category/video/ RealWealth Assessment™: https://realwealth.com/assessment/ RealWealth® Webinars: https://realwealth.com/webinars/ READ BOOKS BY RealWealth® FOUNDERS The Wise Investor by Rich Fettke: https://tinyurl.com/thewiseinvestorbook Retire Rich with Rentals by Kathy Fettke: https://tinyurl.com/retirerichwithrentals Scaling Smart by Rich & Kathy Fettke: https://tinyurl.com/scalingsmart DISCLAIMER The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities or to make or consider any investment or course of action. For more information, go to www.RealWealthShow.com

Consumer confidence mostly held steady in August – what's driving people's current mood and spending habits?  The latest update from The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® shows a slight dip in August, with the index slipping to 97.4 from July's 98.7. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index fell, with expectations remaining below the recession-warning threshold of 80.  Join Dana Peterson, Center Leader of the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center at The Conference Board, and Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board, as they discuss:  Why tariffs and inflation remain top-of-mind for consumers;  How resumption of interest on student loans is impacting consumer credit and spending habits; and  The resiliency of cash payments and who's using buy-now-pay-later options.  More from The Conference Board:  Consumer Confidence Index  Will E-Wallets and Deferred Payments Overtake Cash and Credit Cards?  Pre-Aug 1 Tariff Buying Likely Boosted July Retail Sales 

Appearing on The State of the Line Podcast, National Council of Compensation Insurance Executive Director and Senior Economist, Stephen Cooper, discusses the most recent U.S. jobs report and how key labor market statistics could potentially impact workers' compensation insurance.

In this week's Market Talk podcast, AIB's Senior Economist, John Fahey, and AIB Treasury's Jane Kavanagh, discuss volatility in the financial markets. They also review central bank activity, considering the outlook for interest rates for the second half of 2025 and discuss the impact of tariffs on inflation. The team also looks at the currency markets, with the euro gaining against the dollar for first time this year. Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Nearly 500,000 Utahns rely on Social Security - the program turns 90 today! Will it make it to 100? Greg and Holly discuss the fate of social security with Robert Spendlove, Senior Economist with Zions Bank.

Trump's 2025 tariffs will hit nearly three-quarters of US food imports, raising prices on products that are often difficult or impossible to produce domestically. Senator Hawley has proposed a rebate program to return some of the revenue to households—but would it actually help? Kyle Hulehan is joined by Alex Durante, Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, to unpack how these tariffs work, the economic trade-offs of a rebate, and why repealing tariffs may be the most effective solution.Support the showFollow us!https://twitter.com/TaxFoundationhttps://twitter.com/deductionpodSupport the show

What should you tell clients when tariffs increase and hiring slows? Blake Oliver discusses with Gusto senior economist Nicholas Tremper the effects on small businesses of high tariffs, reduced job growth, and a tighter labor market influenced by immigration policy. Find out how advising on cash flow and employee benefits can help your clients identify opportunities in a post-pandemic startup boom driven by artificial intelligence.Learn more about Gustohttps://earmarkcpe.promo/gustoChapters(01:09) - Meet the Guest: Nich Tremper, Senior Economist (02:36) - Impact of Tariffs on Small Businesses (11:12) - Labor Market Trends and Challenges (20:37) - Strategies for Small Business Success (22:37) - Impact of AI (30:00) - Trends in Offshore Hiring (32:36) - Impact of Inflation on Small Businesses (39:47) - The Role of Accountants in Business Strategy (42:48) - Rise of New Business Formations (48:39) - Optimism for Small Businesses in 2026 Sign up to get free CPE for listening to this podcasthttps://earmarkcpe.comhttps://earmark.app/Download the Earmark CPE App Apple: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/earmark-cpe/id1562599728Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.earmarkcpe.appConnect with Our Guest, Nich TremperLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nichtremperConnect with Blake Oliver, CPALinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/blaketoliverTwitter: https://twitter.com/blaketoliver/

In this episode, we explore whether artificial intelligence can truly help close the higher education gap in Latin America and the Caribbean, or if it risks leaving more students behind. Jaime Saavedra, Director for Human Development in Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank, speaks with Ezequiel Molina, Senior Economist at the Bank and co-author of a new report on AI Revolution in higher education, and Christopher Neilson, Professor of Economics at Yale University and founder of Tether Education and ConsiliumBots. They discuss real-life innovations that are already reshaping university access in the region—from AI-powered chatbots guiding students through complex admissions processes to tools that detect early signs of dropout risk. The episode also delves into what governments need to do to ensure these technologies promote inclusion rather than deepen existing inequalities.Links:https://www.consiliumbots.comReport: AI Revolution in Higher EducationWBG Education in Latin America and the CaribbeanIf you want to learn more about Latin America and the Caribbean, subscribe to our newsletter.A podcast produced by Lucía Blasco.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating 14 years broadcasting on the internet. On Tuesday's show, we visit with our Florida State Senator Kathleen Passidomo about the uncertainty created by changes in Federal programs and how they impact state governments. We visit with libertarian commentator Patrick Carroll about controversies over “affordable housing.” Senior Economist for the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young and I discuss unemployment numbers, interest rates, and the economy. We also visit Linda Harden about the Canadian fires polluting the air in the United States, and we discuss healthy foods in the SNAP program. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this or past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

ANDREI YAKOVLEV is an Associate at Harvard University's Davis Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies and a Visiting Research Fellow at SCRIPTS project at Freie Universität Berlin.VLADIMIR DUBROVSKIY was a Senior Economist at CASE Ukraine. He is an expert on Applied institutional and political economics (corruption, economic reforms, etc.)----------LINKS:https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putins-new-hermit-kingdom-closed-dictatorship----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain----------TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:Save Ukrainehttps://www.saveukraineua.org/Superhumans - Hospital for war traumashttps://superhumans.com/en/UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukrainehttps://unbroken.org.ua/Come Back Alivehttps://savelife.in.ua/en/Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchenhttps://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraineUNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyyhttps://u24.gov.ua/Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundationhttps://prytulafoundation.orgNGO “Herojam Slava”https://heroiamslava.org/kharpp - Reconstruction project supporting communities in Kharkiv and Przemyślhttps://kharpp.com/NOR DOG Animal Rescuehttps://www.nor-dog.org/home/----------

“Our job is to recycle so that we can recover all of that scrap and goods that you and I are recycling in our garbage bins every week or recycling as we get new cars. And our job is to recover that because we make steel in a very clean and efficient process through what's called an electric arc furnace. So, we take all of that scrap, we melt it down, and we make new steel. It does not degrade. It has a continuous reusable life.…Depending on the different products of steel, that actually determines the recycled content that goes into them for the finishes and the quality of the steel that's needed.” Tabitha Stine on Electric Ladies Podcast With tariffs on steel and the Nippon Steel-U.S. Steel merger back in the news, we wanted to replay this important conversation on the impact of steel on the environment and how “recycled steel” works. “The production and use of materials such as cement, steel, and aluminum have a significant carbon footprint,” according to the UN, with construction 37% of emissions. But is recycled steel safe? Listen to Tabitha Stine, General Manager of Energy Solutions and Services at Nucor Corporation, which says it's “North America's largest steel manufacturer and recycler.” She'll explain how recycled steel is made and more in this fascinating conversation with Electric Ladies host Joan Michelson. They also share insightful career advice. You'll hear about: How recycled steel is made and where the steel comes from that is recycled. How structurally sound recycled steel is and how it's tested to make sure and meet building codes. Which industries use recycled steel, why, and how the demand and supply line up.   How the steel industry is adapting to ensure automobiles and buildings are resilient to the ravages of climate change, including innovations in the works. Plus, insightful career advice, such as… “Usually what holds people back is, people are not willing to raise their hand. And then you go 10 years and you haven't had guidance because maybe you have a manager that doesn't give you feedback. You have to advocate for yourself. You are your advocate. There are no others. You've got to assume nobody else will except for yourself and you go for it. And I would also stress that if you're also not mentoring others at every stage along your career, you're missing out on a big opportunity,” Tabitha Stine on Electric Ladies Podcast Read Joan's Forbes articles here. You'll also like: Marci Jenks, Eco-Materials Technologies, on green cement Congresswoman Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA), on the politics of energy and infrastructure Erin McLaughlin, Senior Economist, The Conference Board, about her new report on buildings, climate change and carbon emissions. Katie McGinty, Chief Sustainability Officer, Johnson Controls, on the power of buildings. Anna Siefken, Deputy Director, Federal Energy Management Program, Dept. of Energy, on how the federal government reduces the energy use and carbon footprint of its 350,000 buildings. Laura Busse Dolan, CEO, Applied Imagination, which designs and builds miniature buildings from plants and botanicals. Subscribe to our newsletter to receive our podcasts, blog, events and special coaching offers.. Thanks for subscribing on Apple Podcasts or iHeartRadio and leaving us a review! Follow us on Twitter @joanmichelson

  It's an article of faith in many conservative circles that the Trump administration's tough anti-immigrant policies will free up jobs for U.S. born workers. New research from Economic Policy Institute senior economist Ben Zipperer, however, demonstrates conclusively that the opposite is the case. Zipperer's calculations actually show that the net impact of mass deportation […]

We've been talking about the tariff effect for months... well Inflation accelerated last month... are we finally seeing the tariff trickle effect through the US economy?  Robert Spendlove, Senior Economist with Zions Bank joins us to discuss these inflation numbers and where the biggest growing pains are coming from for the average consumer.

The Government was forced into a humiliating climbdown over its controversial benefits bill this week, and any savings the Treasury had hoped to make were wiped out. The politics of this is a subject on its own, but the underlying problem the government was trying to solve, however, remains. David Aaronovitch asks his guests why the cost of disability benefits has ballooned so unexpectedly, who gets them and why and whether the system works for disabled people.Guests:Paul Lewis, Presenter Moneybox, BBC Radio 4 Tom Waters, Associate Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies Louise Murphy, Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation Ruth Patrick, Professor of Social and Public Policy, University of GlasgowPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: Sarah Hockley and Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Samim Ghamami, Senior Economist at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, joins Mark, Cris, and Marisa to explore the rapid rise of the private credit market. With global assets surpassing $2 trillion, Samim breaks down the systemic risks posed by this opaque yet fast-growing asset class. The discussion delves into private credit's role in middle-market lending, private equity, and new markets like infrastructure and real estate, as well as its implications for financial stability and regulation.Access the full paper, Private Credit & Systemic Risk here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=2107637A-C535-4AFF-83BC-6CBA1AD1FAB9&app=downloadGuest: Samim Ghamami, Senior Economist at the Securities and Exchange CommissionHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Our economists Michael Gapen and Sam Coffin discuss how a drop in immigration is tightening labor markets, and what that means for the U.S. economic outlook and Fed policy. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Sam Coffin: And I'm Sam Coffin, Senior Economist on our U.S. Economics research team.Michael Gapen: Today we're going to have a discussion about the potential economic consequences of the administration's shift in immigration policies. In particular, we'll focus much of our attention on the influence that immigration reform is having on the U.S. labor market. And what it means for our outlook on Federal Reserve policy.It's Friday, June 13th at 9am in New York.So, Sam, news headlines have been dominated by developments in the President's immigration policies; what is being called by, at least some commentators, as a toughening in his stance.But I'd like to set the stage first with any new information that you think we've received on border encounters and interior removals. The administration has released new data on that recently that covered at least some of the activity earlier this year. What did it tell you? And did it differ markedly from your expectations?Sam Coffin: What we saw at first was border encounters falling sharply to 30,000 a month from 200,000 or 300,000 a month last year. It was perhaps a surprise that they fell that sharply. And on the flip side, interior removals turned out to be much more difficult than the administration had suggested. They'd been targeting maybe 500,000 per year in removals, 1500 a day. And we're hitting a third or a half of that pace.Michael Gapen: So maybe the recent escalation in ICE raids could be in response to this, right? The fact that interior removals have not been as large as some in the administration would desire.Sam Coffin: That's correct. And we think those efforts will continue. The House Budget Reconciliation Bill, for example, has about $155 billion more in the budget for ICE, a large increase over its current budget. This will likely mean greater efforts at interior removals. About half of it goes to stricter border enforcement. The other half goes to new agents and more operations. We'll see what the final bill looks like, but it would be about a five-fold increase in funding.Michael Gapen: Okay. So much fewer encounters, meaning fewer migrants entering the U.S., and stepped-up enforcement on interior removals. So, I guess, shifting gears on the back of that data. Two important visa programs have also been in the news. One is the so-called CHNV Parole Program that's allowed Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans to enter the U.S. on parole. The Supreme Court recently ruled that the administration could proceed with removing their immigration status.We also have immigrants on TPS, or Temporary Protected Status, which is subject to periodic removal; if the administration determines that the circumstances that warranted their immigration into the U.S. are no longer present. So, these would be immigrants coming to the U.S. in response to war, conflict, environmental disasters, hurricanes, so forth.So, Sam, how do you think about the ramping up of immigration controls in these areas? Is the end of these temporary programs important? How many immigrants are on them? And what would the cancellation of these mean in terms of your outlook for immigration?Sam Coffin: Yeah, for CHNV Paroles, there are about 500,000 people paroled into the U.S. The Supreme Court ruled that the administration can cancel those paroles. We expect now that those 500,000 are probably removed from the country over the next six months or so. And the temporary protected status; similarly, there are about 800,000 people on temporary protected status. About 600,000 of them have their temporary status revoked at this point or at least revoked sometime soon. And it looks like we'll get a couple hundred thousand in deportations out from that program this year and the rest next year.The result is net immigration probably falling to 300,000 people this year. We'd expected about a million, when we came into this year, but the faster pace of deportation takes that down. So, 300,000 this year and 300,000 next year, between the reduction in border encounters and the increase in deportations.Michael Gapen: So that's a big shift from what we thought coming into the year. What does that mean for population growth and growth in the labor force? And how would this compare – just put it in context from where we were coming out of the pandemic when immigration inflows were quite large.Sam Coffin: Yeah. Population growth before the pandemic was running 0.5 to 0.75 percent per year. With the large increase in immigration, it accelerated 1-1.25 percent during the years of the fastest immigration. At this point, it falls by about a point to 0.3-0.4 percent population growth over the next couple of years.Michael Gapen: So almost flat growth in the labor force, right? So, translate that into what economists would call a break-even employment rate. How much employment do you need to push the unemployment rate down or push the unemployment rate up?Sam Coffin: Yeah, so last year – I mean, we have the experience of last year. And last year about 200,000 a month in payroll growth was consistent with a flat unemployment rate. So far this year, that's full on to 160,000-170,000 a month, consistent with a flat unemployment rate. With further reduction in labor force growth, it would probably decline to about 70,000 a month. So much slower payrolls to hold the unemployment rate flat.Michael Gapen: So, as you know, we've taken the view, Sam, that immigration controls and restrictions will mean a few important things for the economy, right? One is fewer consuming households and softening demand, but the foreign-born worker has a much higher participation rate than domestic workers; about 4 to 5 percentage points higher.So, a lot less labor force growth, as you mentioned. How have these developments changed your view on exactly how hard it's going to be to push the unemployment rate higher?Sam Coffin: So, so far this year, payrolls have averaged about 140,000 a month, and the unemployment rate's been going sideways at 4.2 percent. It's been going sideways since – for about nine months now, in fact. We do expect that payroll growth slows over the course of this year, along with the slowing in domestic demand. We have payroll growth falling around 50,000 a month by late in the year; but the unemployment rate going sideways, 4.3 percent this year because of that decline in breakeven payrolls.For next year, we also have weak payroll growth. We also expect weak payroll growth of about 50,000 a month. But the unemployment rate rising somewhat more to 4.8 percent by the end of the year.Michael Gapen: So, immigration controls really mean the unemployment rate will rise, but less than you might expect and later than you might expect, right? So that's I guess what we would classify as the cyclical effect of immigration.But we also think immigration controls and a much slower growth in the labor force means downward pressure on potential. Where are we right now in terms of potential growth and where's that vis-a-vis where we were? And if these immigration controls go into place, where do we think potential growth is going?Sam Coffin: Well, GDP potential is measured as the sum of productivity growth and growth in trend hours worked. The slower immigration means slower labor force growth and less capacity for hours. We estimated potential growth between 2.5 and 3 percent growth in 2022 to 2024. But we have it falling to 2.0 percent presently – or back to where it was before COVID. If we're right on immigration going forward and we see those faster deportations and the continued stoppage at the border, it could mean potential growth of only 1.5 percent next year.Michael Gapen: That's a big change, of course, from where the economy was just, you know, 12 to 18 months ago. And I'd like to circle back to one point that you made in bringing up the recent employment numbers. In the May job report that was released last week, we also saw a decline in labor force participation. It went down two-tenths on the month.Now, on one hand that may have prevented a rise in the unemployment rate. It was 4.2 but could have been maybe 4.5 percent or so – had the participation rate held constant. So maybe the labor market weakened, and we just don't know it yet. But you have an idea that you've put forward in some of our reports that there might be another explanation behind the drop in the participation rate. What is that?Sam Coffin: It could be that the threat of increased deportations has created a chilling effect on the participation rate of undocumented workers.Michael Gapen: So, explain to listeners what we mean by a chilling effect in participation, right? We're not talking about restricting inflows or actual deportations. What are we referring to?Sam Coffin: Perhaps undocumented workers step out of the workforce temporarily to avoid detection, similar to how people stayed out of the workforce during the pandemic because of fear of infection or need to take care of children or parents. If this is the case, some of the foreign-born population may be stepping out of the labor force for a longer period of time.Michael Gapen: Right. Which would mean the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent is real and does not mask weakness in the labor market. So, whether it's less in migration, more interior removals, or a chilling effect on participation, then the labor market still stays tight.Sam Coffin: And this is why we think the Fed moves later but ultimately cuts more. It's a combination of tariffs and immigration.Michael Gapen: That's right. So, our baseline is that tariffs push inflation higher first, and so the Fed sees that. But if we're right on immigration and your forecast is that the unemployment rate finishes the year at 4.3, then the Fed just stays on hold. And it's not until the unemployment rate starts rising in 2026 that the Fed turns to cuts, right. So, we have cuts starting in March of next year. And the Fed cutting all the way down to 250 to 275.Well, I think altogether, Sam, this is what we know now. It's certainly a fluid situation. Headlines are changing rapidly, so our thoughts may evolve over time as the policy backdrop evolves. But Sam, thank you for speaking with me.Sam Coffin: Thank you very much.Michael Gapen: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.