Podcasts about senior economist

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Best podcasts about senior economist

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Latest podcast episodes about senior economist

The Bob Harden Show
Where Do people Get Their News?

The Bob Harden Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2025 59:51


Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating over 14 years broadcasting on the internet. On Tuesday's show, we visit with Florida State Senator Kathleen Passidomo about the controversy over the Naples Airport governance, the Trump library, and some thoughts on the next legislative session. We visit with Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young about the possible consequences of the pending government shutdown. Boo Mortenson and I discuss where people get information and news. We also visit with Linda Harden about the James Comey indictment and other Grand Juries that have been convened. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this or past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms. xqi5&st=bmgf9390&dl=0

donald trump james comey grand jury senior economist bob harden show professor andrew joppa
Bob Harden Show
Where Do People Get Their News?

Bob Harden Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2025


Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating over 14 years broadcasting on the internet. On Tuesday's show, we visit with Florida State Senator Kathleen Passidomo about the controversy over the Naples Airport governance, the Trump library, and some thoughts on the next legislative session. We visit with Senior Economist from … The post Where Do People Get Their News? appeared first on Bob Harden Show.

Smart Advice with Carissa Lucreziano
Beyond the headlines: interest rates, housing and where the economy is headed

Smart Advice with Carissa Lucreziano

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2025 21:36


Here are three reasons why you should listen to this episode:Learn how interest rate cuts actually affect variable and fixed-rate mortgages, and what that means for your next renewal.Understand the regional differences shaping Canada's housing markets, including why now may be an opportunity for condo buyers.Gain practical strategies for staying financially resilient, from managing employment uncertainty to making smart spending decisions.ResourcesCIBC's "Smart Advice" Podcast and Website - Website | Apple Podcast | SpotifyVisit CIBC for more Smart AdviceAndrew Grantham: LinkedIn | CIBC Author ProfileEpisode Highlights[00:20] Canada's Economic CrossroadsCanadians are facing uncertainty as interest rates shift, the Canadian housing market fluctuates, and recession fears dominate the headlines.Rising costs and uneven recovery raise important questions about affordability and financial security.Host Carissa Lucreziano introduces guest Andrew Grantham, Senior Economist at CIBC Capital Markets.Andrew is well-positioned to explain today's challenges, connecting big-picture trends to the financial decisions Canadians face. [01:10] Interest Rates in the Canadian Housing MarketThe Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve recently trimmed rates, offering a small sense of relief.For some households, variable-rate mortgages and credit lines see immediate benefits, while fixed rates remain largely unchanged.Carissa asks Andrew about the broader impact on the Canadian housing market, from overheated urban centers to smaller regions.Andrew explains why local differences matter, noting ongoing weakness in Toronto and Vancouver but signs of recovery elsewhere.[04:16] Andrew: “We are seeing that, particularly with the population growth we've seen in some of the prairie provinces, for example, there is the demand there, and even though building has increased in those provinces, we are still seeing that the housing market there is reasonably strong and prices are continuing to rise a little bit.”[04:41] The Condo Market in FocusCondos, particularly in Toronto, are experiencing weak demand and falling prices.Developers struggle to pre-sell units, slowing the pace of new construction.Andrew explains how reduced supply could eventually stabilize the market as demand slowly returns.He advises Canadians not to wait too long, as even a small rise in demand could shift conditions.[06:02] Are Canadians Waiting on the Sidelines?Many Canadians wonder if mortgage rates will fall further before they make financial moves.Andrew notes that while rates are lower than last year, they will likely not return to pandemic-era levels.He emphasizes that rates today are closer to 2019 levels, when the market was more balanced.His advice: focus on manageable payments and comfort, rather than trying to time the market.[07:40] Canada–U.S. Trade Ties and Sector PressuresCanada's economy is deeply linked to U.S. policy decisions, creating ripple effects north of the border.Andrew discusses Mark Carney's approach to strengthening ties while avoiding rushed trade deals.While many goods still enter the U.S. tariff-free, sector-specific tariffs continue to impact industries like steel, aluminum, and autos.Ontario and Quebec face the greatest pressure, while most other provinces remain less affected.[10:35] Consumer Spending and the Canadian DollarWith Black Friday approaching, Canadians are weighing the cost of cross-border shopping.[11:30] Andrew: “In terms of that cross-border shopping activity, a big theme over this year, even before talking about those Black Friday Sales, has been the drive to buy Canadian.”A weaker Canadian dollar makes U.S. purchases more expensive, but a “buy Canada” trend is emerging.Andrew notes that spending at home could benefit local retailers this holiday season.He explains how the loonie's movement is tied to U.S. dollar strength, limiting expectations for quick improvement.[12:18] Is Canada in a Recession?Headlines continue to question whether Canada is already in a recession.Andrew clarifies the difference between the technical definition and how people actually feel.While contraction occurred earlier in the year, he expects recovery in the second half.For many in Ontario and B.C., falling home prices and job struggles still make it feel like a recession.[15:48] Andrew: “What's interesting though, in the current situation is that that excess increase in unemployment for young people has gone above and beyond even what we would typically see given what's happened on the economy as a whole, on a national basis.”[17:23] Building Financial ResilienceCanadians want to know how to protect themselves in uncertain times.Andrew advises setting money aside for emergencies and focusing on long-term goals.He emphasizes avoiding short-term “headline risks” and instead building steady resilience.His message: consistent saving and a long-term view remain the strongest strategies.[18:55] Looking Ahead: Opportunities Beyond UncertaintyCanada is adjusting to a new trade environment, higher but stabilizing interest rates, and shifting consumer patterns.Andrew highlights Canada's strengths, including infrastructure investment, natural resources, and a skilled labor force.He notes that while the economy feels heavy today, long-term prospects remain strong.Final takeaway: Canadians should focus on opportunities ahead, not just the short-term noise.About Andrew GranthamAs Senior Economist with CIBC Capital Markets, Andrew Grantham has a wide range of experience in different areas of economic and market forecasting, providing both a Canadian and global perspective. His focus includes interest rates, the Canadian housing market, consumer spending, and trade. Through his work, he has helped Canadians understand how big trends connect to everyday financial decisions. Andrew often shares insights on mortgage affordability, youth unemployment, and cross-border ties.Andrew blends data-driven analysis with a practical perspective on the Canadian economy. In his analyses, he highlights both the challenges and the opportunities that lie ahead. His goal is to help Canadians move past headlines and focus on what matters for long-term resilience and growth.Connect with Andrew Grantham on his LinkedIn or CIBC Author Profile.Enjoyed this Episode?If you did, be sure to subscribe and share it with your friends!Post a review and share it! If you enjoyed tuning in, leave us a review. You can also send this to your friends and family. Interest rates, jobs, and trade are all shifting. The Canadian housing market is fluctuating depending on where you go. This creates a landscape that feels uncertain but also full of possibility. Discover how these changes connect, and learn what they mean for your financial decisions today and for the years ahead.Have any questions? You can connect with me on LinkedIn or through CIBC's Facebook, or Instagram.Thanks for tuning in! For more updates, visit our website. You can also listen to more amazing episodes on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

Wharton Business Radio Highlights
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Technology's Role in Growth

Wharton Business Radio Highlights

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2025 9:52


Jeremy Siegel, Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School and Senior Economist at WisdomTree, discusses the Federal Reserve's latest rate cuts, divisions within monetary policy, inflation and employment trends, and how artificial intelligence is shaping long-term economic growth and market performance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Cents of Security by Interactive Brokers

Mary MacNamara and Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers, break down four major economic data surprises—from GDP and durable goods to unemployment claims and home sales. What do these signals mean for the U.S. economy, interest rates, and the housing market?

Chat Lounge
Where is U.S. business headed, and what does it mean for China?

Chat Lounge

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2025 55:00


Top U.S. business leaders are quietly fuming. They say Washington's policies hurt innovation, raise costs, and undermine competitiveness. But why won't they say so openly? What risks do they fear? Under what conditions could the White House reverse course? Host TU Yun joins Harvey Dzodin, Senior Fellow, Center for China and Globalization, David Blair, Senior Economist, Alliance of Global Talent Organizations, and Alex Sili Zhou, Associate Professor of Economics and Finance, University of Macau to dig into the closed-door frustrations of American CEOs, explore the global ripple effects, and ask what it all means for U.S.–China business ties.

The POWER Business Show
PwC South Africa Economic Outlook

The POWER Business Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2025 10:52


Nosipho Radebe speaks to Christie Viljoen, Senior Economist at PwC SASee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wirtschaft mit Weisbach
Was hält die US-Wirtschaft aus – und wie unabhängig ist Europas Zahlungsverkehr? Mit Sandra Ebner & Chris Scheuermann

Wirtschaft mit Weisbach

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2025 24:35


In dieser Folge geht es um zwei zentrale Themen, die Wirtschaft und Politik aktuell prägen: Die Lage der US-Wirtschaft unter Donald Trump – und der Kampf Europas um digitale Souveränität im Zahlungsverkehr.Sandra Ebner, Senior Economist bei Union Investment, analysiert:Warum der US-Konsum stark bleibt, aber der Arbeitsmarkt erste Schwächesignale zeigtWie sich Trumps Einwanderungspolitik negativ auf das Wirtschaftswachstum auswirktWelche Rolle die Fed in diesem Spannungsfeld spielt – und warum Zinssenkungen nicht die Lösung aller Probleme sindOb das Vertrauen in US-Institutionen schwindet – und was das für Kapitalmärkte und den Dollar bedeutetChris Scheuermann, Deutschlandchef der European Payment Initiative (EPI), erklärt:Warum Europa eigene Lösungen wie „Vero“ im Zahlungsverkehr brauchtWie Banken sich aus der Abhängigkeit von Visa, Mastercard & PayPal lösen wollenWas Vero anders macht – und warum es für Banken und Nutzer attraktiv istWie die Expansion in neue Märkte und der Einstieg in den Onlinehandel geplant istAußerdem in der Folge:SAP ist das Investment der Woche – Die Aktie steht unter Druck, doch Analysten sehen Potenzial. Warum der Fokus auf KI ein echter Wachstumstreiber sein könnte und wieso SAP ein zentraler Baustein europäischer Tech-Souveränität ist.Vielen Dank fürs Zuhören! Annette Weisbach ist seit über 15 Jahren als Wirtschaftsjournalistin für internationale Medien wie CNBC, Bloomberg und DW-TV tätig. Als CNBC-Korrespondentin führe ich regelmäßig Interviews mit Top-Entscheidungsträgern und moderiere Podiumsdiskussionen.Haben Sie Fragen oder Anregungen?Kontaktinformationen unter:LinkedInWebpageBleiben Sie dran für weitere spannende Inhalte!

Inside Sources with Boyd Matheson
What rising grocery costs and falling interest rates mean for your wallet

Inside Sources with Boyd Matheson

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2025 9:40


Grocery prices are up, the Utah unemployment rate is stable, and the federal interest rate is down. What does this all mean for our pocketbooks? Robert Spendlove, Senior Economist with Zions Bank, joins the show.

Early Edition with Kate Hawkesby
Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on the GDP falling 0.9%

Early Edition with Kate Hawkesby

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2025 3:55


Surprise across the board with the latest sharp drop in GDP. Our economy's contracted 0.9% in the June quarter - a worse outcome than any economists had been forecasting. Many were predicting a 0.3% drop, including the Reserve Bank and ASB. ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith shares his analysis with Ryan. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast
Michael Gordon: Westpac Senior Economist ahead of today's GDP announcement

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2025 3:44 Transcription Available


Many are predicting a fall in GDP for quarter two. Stats NZ will release the figures later this morning, just before 11am. The Reserve Bank expects a 0.3% drop while bank economists are more pessimistic. Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon told Mike Hosking there are worrying trends. He says the construction sector is still in a downturn, while manufacturing has seen a fall after a decent first quarter. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mornings with Simi
Interest rate news

Mornings with Simi

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2025 7:10


Interest rate news Guest: Andrew Grantham, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CIBC Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mornings with Simi
Full Show: Immigration changes, Bike lanes and buses in Stanley Park & Recycling laziness

Mornings with Simi

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 17, 2025 41:16


Changes to immigration law in Canada? Guest: Daniel Kingwell, Immigration lawyer Will Stanley Park bike lanes enrage the public? Guest: Tom Digby, park board commissioner Why are recycling rates so much lower in condos than houses? Guest: Karen Storry, a senior engineer with Metro Vancouver and an expert in zero waste policies. How are younger Canadians feeling about our role in Ukraine and Gaza? Guest Dr. Jack Jedwab, President of the Association for Canadian Studies Interest rate news Guest: Andrew Grantham, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CIBC Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

IFPRI Podcast
Fertilizers in a Shifting Global Landscape – Trends, Trade, and Sustainability

IFPRI Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2025 92:30


IFPRI-AMIS Seminar Series | IFPRI Policy Seminar Fertilizers in a Shifting Global Landscape – Trends, Trade, and Sustainability Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) September 16, 2025 Fertilizers—both mineral and organic—are indispensable inputs in modern agriculture. Yet, recent years have seen unprecedented volatility in fertilizer prices, trade flows, and policy responses, reshaping the landscape for producers, traders, and farmers alike. This event will explore the evolving dynamics of the global fertilizer market and its critical role in food security and agricultural sustainability. Drawing on the latest research and market intelligence from AMIS, FAO's Food Outlook and IFPRI, this session will unpack the key drivers behind recent market disruptions and recovery patterns, including the environmental footprint of fertilizer use, and a variety of policy developments affecting market access and affordability. Opening Remarks Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary Charlotte Hebebrand, Director of Communications and Public Affairs, IFPRI Presentations Current Situation on the Fertilizer Markets: Delphine Leconte-Demarsy, Fertilizer consultant, Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) US Tariffs and Fertilizer Trade: Shawn Arita, Associate Director and Associate Research Professor, Agricultural Risk Policy Center, North Dakota State University (NDSU) Policy Reforms and Fertilizer Use: Fertilizer Subsidies and Alternatives: Ruth Hill, Director, Markets, Trade, and Institutions, IFPRI Discussion Moderated by Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary and Charlotte Hebebrand, Director of Communications and Public Affairs, IFPRI Maria Antip, Fertilizer consultant, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Veronica Nigh, Senior Economist, The Fertilizer Institute Links: More about this Event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/fertilizers-in-a-shifting-global-landscape-trends-trade-and-sustainability/ Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event announcements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription

MONEY FM 89.3 - The Breakfast Huddle with Elliott Danker, Manisha Tank and Finance Presenter Ryan Huang
US Markets Wrap: Unexpected drop in wholesale prices boosts investor sentiment

MONEY FM 89.3 - The Breakfast Huddle with Elliott Danker, Manisha Tank and Finance Presenter Ryan Huang

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2025 12:35


José Torres, Senior Economist, Interactive Brokers discusses another bullish session for Wall Street; Oracle's historic gain; the unexpected fall in wholesale prices and whether the CPI print may meet a similar fate; and the potential odds of a jumbo Fed rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting. Produced/Presented: Emaad Akhtar Photo credit: AFPSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How India's Economy Works
The GST Reform India Needs but Didn't Get with Arbind Modi

How India's Economy Works

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 10, 2025 60:34


In this episode, economic journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks to Arbind Modi, retired IRS officer and Senior Economist at the IMF and one of the chief architects of India's Goods and Services Tax (GST), about what India's broken tax system means for its growth ambitions. The conversation explores how GST's design flaws have hurt competitiveness, why exempting large sections of income undermines fairness, and how Centre–State revenue sharing has created new fiscal strains.The discussion connects India's tax choices to global shifts, from the Trump-era trade wars to the reordering of supply chains, making clear that without serious reform, India risks missing yet another growth opportunity.Tune in for insights on what it will take to reset India's tax system, revive competitiveness, and lay the foundation for sustained 8% growth. This episode is both a masterclass in India's tax system and a call for bold, evidence-driven policymaking.(00:00) Introduction(02:15) Why GST Hasn't Delivered on Its Promise(07:42) Fixing GST Design and Efficiency(12:30) The Problem with GST Rates and Complexity(16:58) Corporate Tax Cuts and Their Consequences(21:47) Why Income Tax Exemptions Are a Mistake(27:15) The Centre–State Revenue Sharing Dilemma(32:44) The Case for Comprehensive Tax Reform(38:52) How GST Reform Could Unlock Higher Growth(46:10) Why Political Will Matters More Than Bureaucratic Hesitation(51:21) Decluttering GST and Fixing Excise Duties(55:23) Why Taxing Gold Jewellery Hurts the Poor(59:26) ConclusionFor more of our coverage check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecore.in⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to our Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow us on:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linkedin⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Youtube

Inside Sources with Boyd Matheson
Job Drought: Unemployment overtakes job openings

Inside Sources with Boyd Matheson

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2025 10:34


The United States is seeing more of the unemployed than job openings for the first time since 2021. Greg and Holly speak with Senior Economist with Zions Bank, Robert Spendlove, about what this means for the job market.

Total Information AM
An in-depth look at the regional economy with St Louis Federal Reserve

Total Information AM

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2025 6:00


Chuck Gascon, Senior Economist in the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, joins Megan Lynch in-studio following the release of the Beige Book.

Shaye Ganam
Canadian economy shrinks 1.6% in second quarter as U.S. tariffs squeeze export

Shaye Ganam

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2025 5:58


Sal Guatieri is the Director and Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Daybreak Holiday: Fed Independence, Market Outlook, Retail Breakdown

Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2025 38:53 Transcription Available


On this special Labor Day edition of Bloomberg Daybreak US, host Nathan Hager speaks with:1) Sarah House, Wells Fargo senior economist and Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Market on the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve and Fed independence. 2) Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy, RBC Capital Markets and Brian Levit, Global Market Strategist at Invesco on what to expect out of markets in the fall 3) Burt Flickinger, Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, on the outlook for the retail sector. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast
Is Now a Good Time to Buy Real Estate? Housing Market Update with Zillow's Orphe Divounguy

Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2025 29:46


Is now a good time to buy real estate? In this episode of The Real Wealth Show, Kathy Fettke is joined by Zillow's Senior Economist, Orphe Divounguy, to break down the latest trends in supply and demand, rental demand, housing permits versus starts, and what these signals mean for home prices. You'll also hear insights on where investors should be looking to buy real estate now, and what may happen with interest rates in the months ahead. If you want to stay ahead of the curve in real estate, this market update is packed with data and expert insights you can use today. LINKS CHECK OUT OUR NEW WEBSITE & BECOME A MEMBER (IT'S FREE)! https://realwealth.com/join-step-1 FOLLOW OUR PODCASTS The Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast https://link.chtbl.com/RWS Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast: https://link.chtbl.com/REN FREE RealWealth® EDUCATION & TOOLS RealWealth Market Reports: https://realwealth.com/learn/best-places-to-buy-rental-property/ RealWealth Videos: https://realwealth.com/category/video/ RealWealth Assessment™: https://realwealth.com/assessment/ RealWealth® Webinars: https://realwealth.com/webinars/ READ BOOKS BY RealWealth® FOUNDERS The Wise Investor by Rich Fettke: https://tinyurl.com/thewiseinvestorbook Retire Rich with Rentals by Kathy Fettke: https://tinyurl.com/retirerichwithrentals Scaling Smart by Rich & Kathy Fettke: https://tinyurl.com/scalingsmart DISCLAIMER The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities or to make or consider any investment or course of action. For more information, go to www.RealWealthShow.com

CEO Perspectives
The State of the Economy for August 2025

CEO Perspectives

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2025 19:45 Transcription Available


Consumer confidence mostly held steady in August – what's driving people's current mood and spending habits?  The latest update from The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® shows a slight dip in August, with the index slipping to 97.4 from July's 98.7. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index fell, with expectations remaining below the recession-warning threshold of 80.  Join Dana Peterson, Center Leader of the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center at The Conference Board, and Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board, as they discuss:  Why tariffs and inflation remain top-of-mind for consumers;  How resumption of interest on student loans is impacting consumer credit and spending habits; and  The resiliency of cash payments and who's using buy-now-pay-later options.  More from The Conference Board:  Consumer Confidence Index  Will E-Wallets and Deferred Payments Overtake Cash and Credit Cards?  Pre-Aug 1 Tariff Buying Likely Boosted July Retail Sales 

AM Best Radio Podcast
NCCI Podcast Explores Correlation Between Labor Statistics and Workers' Comp

AM Best Radio Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 21, 2025 9:08 Transcription Available


Appearing on The State of the Line Podcast, National Council of Compensation Insurance Executive Director and Senior Economist, Stephen Cooper, discusses the most recent U.S. jobs report and how key labor market statistics could potentially impact workers' compensation insurance.

AIB Market Talk
Is the US Economy Running out of Steam?

AIB Market Talk

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 15, 2025 24:21


In this week's Market Talk podcast, AIB's Senior Economist, John Fahey, and AIB Treasury's Jane Kavanagh, discuss volatility in the financial markets. They also review central bank activity, considering the outlook for interest rates for the second half of 2025 and discuss the impact of tariffs on inflation. The team also looks at the currency markets, with the euro gaining against the dollar for first time this year. Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Inside Sources with Boyd Matheson
Social Security turns 90! Will it make it to 100?

Inside Sources with Boyd Matheson

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 14, 2025 9:59


Nearly 500,000 Utahns rely on Social Security - the program turns 90 today! Will it make it to 100? Greg and Holly discuss the fate of social security with Robert Spendlove, Senior Economist with Zions Bank.

The Deduction
Trump Tariffs Explained: Grocery Prices and Rebate Checks

The Deduction

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 12, 2025 29:06 Transcription Available


Trump's 2025 tariffs will hit nearly three-quarters of US food imports, raising prices on products that are often difficult or impossible to produce domestically. Senator Hawley has proposed a rebate program to return some of the revenue to households—but would it actually help? Kyle Hulehan is joined by Alex Durante, Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, to unpack how these tariffs work, the economic trade-offs of a rebate, and why repealing tariffs may be the most effective solution.Support the showFollow us!https://twitter.com/TaxFoundationhttps://twitter.com/deductionpodSupport the show

Tax Foundation Events
Trump Tariffs Explained: Grocery Prices and Rebate Checks

Tax Foundation Events

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 12, 2025 29:06 Transcription Available


Trump's 2025 tariffs will hit nearly three-quarters of US food imports, raising prices on products that are often difficult or impossible to produce domestically. Senator Hawley has proposed a rebate program to return some of the revenue to households—but would it actually help? Kyle Hulehan is joined by Alex Durante, Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, to unpack how these tariffs work, the economic trade-offs of a rebate, and why repealing tariffs may be the most effective solution.Support the showFollow us!https://twitter.com/TaxFoundationhttps://twitter.com/deductionpodSupport the show

Earmark Accounting Podcast | Earn Free CPE
The Small-Business Economy in 2025: What Your Clients Need to Know

Earmark Accounting Podcast | Earn Free CPE

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2025 51:46


What should you tell clients when tariffs increase and hiring slows? Blake Oliver discusses with Gusto senior economist Nicholas Tremper the effects on small businesses of high tariffs, reduced job growth, and a tighter labor market influenced by immigration policy. Find out how advising on cash flow and employee benefits can help your clients identify opportunities in a post-pandemic startup boom driven by artificial intelligence.Learn more about Gustohttps://earmarkcpe.promo/gustoChapters(01:09) - Meet the Guest: Nich Tremper, Senior Economist (02:36) - Impact of Tariffs on Small Businesses (11:12) - Labor Market Trends and Challenges (20:37) - Strategies for Small Business Success (22:37) - Impact of AI (30:00) - Trends in Offshore Hiring (32:36) - Impact of Inflation on Small Businesses (39:47) - The Role of Accountants in Business Strategy (42:48) - Rise of New Business Formations (48:39) - Optimism for Small Businesses in 2026 Sign up to get free CPE for listening to this podcasthttps://earmarkcpe.comhttps://earmark.app/Download the Earmark CPE App Apple: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/earmark-cpe/id1562599728Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.earmarkcpe.appConnect with Our Guest, Nich TremperLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nichtremperConnect with Blake Oliver, CPALinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/blaketoliverTwitter: https://twitter.com/blaketoliver/

World Bank EduTech Podcast
Will AI Make Higher Education More Inclusive in Latin America?

World Bank EduTech Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2025 31:37


In this episode, we explore whether artificial intelligence can truly help close the higher education gap in Latin America and the Caribbean, or if it risks leaving more students behind. Jaime Saavedra, Director for Human Development in Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank, speaks with Ezequiel Molina, Senior Economist at the Bank and co-author of a new report on AI Revolution in higher education, and Christopher Neilson, Professor of Economics at Yale University and founder of Tether Education and ConsiliumBots. They discuss real-life innovations that are already reshaping university access in the region—from AI-powered chatbots guiding students through complex admissions processes to tools that detect early signs of dropout risk. The episode also delves into what governments need to do to ensure these technologies promote inclusion rather than deepen existing inequalities.Links:https://www.consiliumbots.comReport: AI Revolution in Higher EducationWBG Education in Latin America and the CaribbeanIf you want to learn more about Latin America and the Caribbean, subscribe to our newsletter.A podcast produced by Lucía Blasco.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive
Michael Gordon: Westpac senior economist on the unemployment rate rising to 5.2 percent

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 6, 2025 2:15 Transcription Available


The sluggish job market is another bump in our road to economic recovery, according to some recent predictions. The unemployment rate's sitting at 5.2 percent - its highest point in five years. In late 2021, it was just 3.2 percent. Westpac senior economist, Michael Gordon, says it shows our economic slowdown's ongoing. He says it's not too surprising, given the Reserve Bank's moves to control inflation. "I think we're getting towards the end - we have seen economic activity picking up, but it's just not coming through in terms of businesses needing to hire just yet." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Bob Harden Show
The Controversy Over "Affordable Housing"

The Bob Harden Show

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2025 60:26


Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating 14 years broadcasting on the internet. On Tuesday's show, we visit with our Florida State Senator Kathleen Passidomo about the uncertainty created by changes in Federal programs and how they impact state governments. We visit with libertarian commentator Patrick Carroll about controversies over “affordable housing.” Senior Economist for the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young and I discuss unemployment numbers, interest rates, and the economy. We also visit Linda Harden about the Canadian fires polluting the air in the United States, and we discuss healthy foods in the SNAP program. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Cato Institute Chairman Emeritus Bob Levy and Professor Andrew Joppa. Access this or past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

The Mike Hosking Breakfast
Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist on the employment rate being expected to hit 5.3%

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2025 3:26 Transcription Available


Last year's recession is still being felt in the job market. Stats NZ data —due out this morning— is expected to show unemployment reached a nine-year high of 5.3% in the June quarter. The economy's been back in growth since the latter part of last year. But ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking the economy has lost about 40,000 jobs since the late 2023 peak. More full-time roles have been lost than part time, he explained, and the labour market is getting that much weaker. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Silicon Curtain
764. Is Russia Turning Into a Closed Off Country?

Silicon Curtain

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2025 54:32


ANDREI YAKOVLEV is an Associate at Harvard University's Davis Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies and a Visiting Research Fellow at SCRIPTS project at Freie Universität Berlin.VLADIMIR DUBROVSKIY was a Senior Economist at CASE Ukraine. He is an expert on Applied institutional and political economics (corruption, economic reforms, etc.)----------LINKS:https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putins-new-hermit-kingdom-closed-dictatorship----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain----------TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:Save Ukrainehttps://www.saveukraineua.org/Superhumans - Hospital for war traumashttps://superhumans.com/en/UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukrainehttps://unbroken.org.ua/Come Back Alivehttps://savelife.in.ua/en/Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchenhttps://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraineUNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyyhttps://u24.gov.ua/Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundationhttps://prytulafoundation.orgNGO “Herojam Slava”https://heroiamslava.org/kharpp - Reconstruction project supporting communities in Kharkiv and Przemyślhttps://kharpp.com/NOR DOG Animal Rescuehttps://www.nor-dog.org/home/----------

Green Connections Radio -  Women Who Innovate With Purpose, & Career Issues, Including in Energy, Sustainability, Responsibil
Recycled Steel Goes Mainstream - Tabitha Stine, General Manager, Energy Solutions, Nucor Corporation

Green Connections Radio - Women Who Innovate With Purpose, & Career Issues, Including in Energy, Sustainability, Responsibil

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2025 60:38


“Our job is to recycle so that we can recover all of that scrap and goods that you and I are recycling in our garbage bins every week or recycling as we get new cars. And our job is to recover that because we make steel in a very clean and efficient process through what's called an electric arc furnace. So, we take all of that scrap, we melt it down, and we make new steel. It does not degrade. It has a continuous reusable life.…Depending on the different products of steel, that actually determines the recycled content that goes into them for the finishes and the quality of the steel that's needed.” Tabitha Stine on Electric Ladies Podcast With tariffs on steel and the Nippon Steel-U.S. Steel merger back in the news, we wanted to replay this important conversation on the impact of steel on the environment and how “recycled steel” works. “The production and use of materials such as cement, steel, and aluminum have a significant carbon footprint,” according to the UN, with construction 37% of emissions. But is recycled steel safe? Listen to Tabitha Stine, General Manager of Energy Solutions and Services at Nucor Corporation, which says it's “North America's largest steel manufacturer and recycler.” She'll explain how recycled steel is made and more in this fascinating conversation with Electric Ladies host Joan Michelson. They also share insightful career advice. You'll hear about: How recycled steel is made and where the steel comes from that is recycled. How structurally sound recycled steel is and how it's tested to make sure and meet building codes. Which industries use recycled steel, why, and how the demand and supply line up.   How the steel industry is adapting to ensure automobiles and buildings are resilient to the ravages of climate change, including innovations in the works. Plus, insightful career advice, such as… “Usually what holds people back is, people are not willing to raise their hand. And then you go 10 years and you haven't had guidance because maybe you have a manager that doesn't give you feedback. You have to advocate for yourself. You are your advocate. There are no others. You've got to assume nobody else will except for yourself and you go for it. And I would also stress that if you're also not mentoring others at every stage along your career, you're missing out on a big opportunity,” Tabitha Stine on Electric Ladies Podcast Read Joan's Forbes articles here. You'll also like: Marci Jenks, Eco-Materials Technologies, on green cement Congresswoman Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA), on the politics of energy and infrastructure Erin McLaughlin, Senior Economist, The Conference Board, about her new report on buildings, climate change and carbon emissions. Katie McGinty, Chief Sustainability Officer, Johnson Controls, on the power of buildings. Anna Siefken, Deputy Director, Federal Energy Management Program, Dept. of Energy, on how the federal government reduces the energy use and carbon footprint of its 350,000 buildings. Laura Busse Dolan, CEO, Applied Imagination, which designs and builds miniature buildings from plants and botanicals. Subscribe to our newsletter to receive our podcasts, blog, events and special coaching offers.. Thanks for subscribing on Apple Podcasts or iHeartRadio and leaving us a review! Follow us on Twitter @joanmichelson

NC Policy Watch
EPI senior economist Ben Zipperer on U.S. immigration policies and how they're impacting the economy

NC Policy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2025 17:31


  It's an article of faith in many conservative circles that the Trump administration's tough anti-immigrant policies will free up jobs for U.S. born workers. New research from Economic Policy Institute senior economist Ben Zipperer, however, demonstrates conclusively that the opposite is the case. Zipperer's calculations actually show that the net impact of mass deportation […]

Inside Sources with Boyd Matheson
The tariff trickle effect is here

Inside Sources with Boyd Matheson

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 15, 2025 9:52


We've been talking about the tariff effect for months... well Inflation accelerated last month... are we finally seeing the tariff trickle effect through the US economy?  Robert Spendlove, Senior Economist with Zions Bank joins us to discuss these inflation numbers and where the biggest growing pains are coming from for the average consumer.

The Daily Brief
Senior economist blast Carney over lack of transparency

The Daily Brief

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2025 11:55


A notorious Ottawa chronic protester was found guilty of causing a disturbance and breaching bail conditions. A senior economist at the Bank of Montreal is blasting Carney over deficit spending and his government's lack of transparency. Canada's job market saw growth for the first time in five months, but students are being left behind. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Negotiation
Navigating Growth and Geopolitics: A Mid-Year Outlook on China with Tianchen Xu (Part 1)

The Negotiation

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 12, 2025 58:17


In Part 1 of our conversation with Tianchen Xu, Senior Economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, we dig into China's macro performance in the first half of 2025—and what the future may hold. Tianchen analyzes Q1's headline 5.4% growth, discusses why the London trade truce between the US and China matters, and highlights what Western media narratives often miss when reporting on China's economy.We also explore how resilient China's economy really is in the face of renewed US tariffs, whether the truce will hold, and how all of this impacts international brands and investor sentiment. For anyone navigating China's economic landscape in 2025, this episode offers a level-headed, data-driven perspective.Discussion Points:Why Q1 2025's 5.4% GDP growth may be more complicated than it looksThe London US-China tariff agreement: what it covers and what could unravelHow China's supply chain reconfiguration may insulate it from future tariff shocksWhat Western media gets wrong about China's macro fundamentalsThe role of state-led investment and policy buffers in maintaining growth momentum

The Bob Harden Show
Middle School Textbooks and "Climate Science"

The Bob Harden Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 11, 2025 60:25


Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating nearly 14 years broadcasting on the internet. On Friday's show, we visit with Senior Legal Fellow with Pacific Legal Foundation William Yeatman about the Senate's focus on reducing spending through the “recission” process, and we discuss the Supreme Court's big ruling on reducing the size of the federal workforce. We visit with Senior Economist from the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young about the CBO, the economy, the recission process, and tariffs. We visit with Landmark Legal Foundation Vice President Michael O'Neill about the continuing judicial assault on Trump's agenda. We also visit with Professor Larry Bell about Trump's middle school textbooks and climate science. We have terrific guests on Monday's show including historian Marc Schulman, Senior Editor for AIER.org Jon Miltimore, and author Jim McTague. Access this or past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Business Matters
President Trump threatens tariffs on 14 countries

Business Matters

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2025 49:28


Japan and South Korea face 25% US tariffs in August. Donald Trump also sent tariff letters to twelve other countries on Monday with details of the tariffs of up to 40% that they could face. We hear from the US Consumer Technology Association on what tariffs could mean for stores across America. Also, as the trading day starts in Tokyo and with elections on the horizon, we ask how Japan's government will interpret President Trump's latest tariff threat.And how street art is encouraging thousands of tourists back to a once-deserted village in southern Italy. Throughout the programme, Sam will be joined by two guests on opposite sides of the world: Peter Landers, Wall Street Journal Asia Business and Finance Editor in Beijing, and Erin McLaughlin, Senior Economist at the Conference Board in new York.

The Briefing Room
Why is there a row about disability benefits?

The Briefing Room

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 3, 2025 28:30


The Government was forced into a humiliating climbdown over its controversial benefits bill this week, and any savings the Treasury had hoped to make were wiped out. The politics of this is a subject on its own, but the underlying problem the government was trying to solve, however, remains. David Aaronovitch asks his guests why the cost of disability benefits has ballooned so unexpectedly, who gets them and why and whether the system works for disabled people.Guests:Paul Lewis, Presenter Moneybox, BBC Radio 4 Tom Waters, Associate Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies Louise Murphy, Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation Ruth Patrick, Professor of Social and Public Policy, University of GlasgowPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: Sarah Hockley and Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Inside Sources with Boyd Matheson
Utah Economist weighs in on $3.3 trillion estimated to add to national deficient  in 'one big, beautiful bill'

Inside Sources with Boyd Matheson

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 2, 2025 10:05


$3.3 trillion estimated ... that's how much the One Big Beautiful Bill is estimated to add to the national deficit...  As the One Big Beautiful bill makes its way through congress... what are the implications of this massive amount of debt that could be piled on? Robert Spendlove, Senior Economist with Zions Bank, shares his input.  

Market take
Tariff and tax policy back center stage

Market take

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 30, 2025 4:15


As the end of the 90-day tariff pause looms, we think immutable economic laws will limit extreme policy changes. Nicholas Fawcett, Senior Economist at the BlackRock Investment Institute, discusses how the U.S. administration is shifting to more market-friendly policies, including tax cuts and regulatory reforms. General disclosure: This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities, funds or strategies to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks. BlackRock does and may seek to do business with companies covered in this podcast. As a result, readers should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this podcast.In the U.S. and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution.In the UK and Non-European Economic Area (EEA) countries: this is Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel:+ 44 (0)20 7743 3000. Registered in England and Wales No. 02020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. Please refer to the Financial Conduct Authority website for a list of authorised activities conducted by BlackRock.In the European Economic Area (EEA): this is Issued by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is authorised and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Registered office Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam, Tel: 020 – 549 5200, Tel: 31-20- 549-5200. Trade Register No. 17068311 For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded.For Investors in Switzerland: This document is marketing material.In South Africa: Please be advised that BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is an authorised Financial Services provider with the South African Financial Services Board, FSP No. 43288.In Singapore, this is issued by BlackRock (Singapore) Limited (Co. registration no. 200010143N). This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. In Hong Kong, this material is issued by BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Australia, issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975, AFSL 230 523 (BIMAL). This material provides general information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should assess whether the material is appropriate for you and obtain financial advice tailored to you having regard to your individual objectives, financial situation, needs and circumstances. Refer to BIMAL's Financial Services Guide on its website for more information. This material is not a financial product recommendation or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial product in any jurisdictionIn Latin America: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds may not have been registered with the securities regulator of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country and thus might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx©2025 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.BIIM0625U/M-4622331

Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution Podcast
How Distributors Can Win in a Soft Landing Economy, with Taylor St. Germain

Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 30, 2025 93:16


What if the economic slowdown didn't spell disaster—but a window of opportunity? In this episode, Senior Economist Taylor St. Germain of ITR Economics joins the show to unpack what a “soft landing” really means for distributors—and how to strategically navigate uncertainty, inflation moderation, and shifting customer demand without panic or paralysis. If you're a distributor wondering how to protect margins, forecast accurately, or align your strategy to economic signals, this conversation is packed with actionable insight tailored for leaders in the wholesale space.  

Wharton Business Radio Highlights
Markets Brace for Tariffs and Look to AI for Relief

Wharton Business Radio Highlights

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2025 9:44


Jeremy Siegel, Wharton Emeritus Professor of Finance and Senior Economist at WisdomTree, discusses how markets are reacting to global instability, the possibility of renewed tariffs, and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, while highlighting how artificial intelligence could help offset economic challenges. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
Private Credit & Systemic Risk

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2025 50:58


Samim Ghamami, Senior Economist at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, joins Mark, Cris, and Marisa to explore the rapid rise of the private credit market. With global assets surpassing $2 trillion, Samim breaks down the systemic risks posed by this opaque yet fast-growing asset class. The discussion delves into private credit's role in middle-market lending, private equity, and new markets like infrastructure and real estate, as well as its implications for financial stability and regulation.Access the full paper, Private Credit & Systemic Risk here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=2107637A-C535-4AFF-83BC-6CBA1AD1FAB9&app=downloadGuest: Samim Ghamami, Senior Economist at the Securities and Exchange CommissionHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

AML Conversations
Tariffs, Trade, and Fraud in 2025

AML Conversations

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2025 29:02


Senior Economist for the Economic Policy Institute, Adam Hersh, discusses the immediate and potential impact of the Trump tariffs, the ongoing challenges of trade fraud, and how the loss of government resources will impact all areas of society.

Thoughts on the Market
The Economic Stakes of President Trump's Immigration Policy

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2025 10:48


Our economists Michael Gapen and Sam Coffin discuss how a drop in immigration is tightening labor markets, and what that means for the U.S. economic outlook and Fed policy. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Sam Coffin: And I'm Sam Coffin, Senior Economist on our U.S. Economics research team.Michael Gapen: Today we're going to have a discussion about the potential economic consequences of the administration's shift in immigration policies. In particular, we'll focus much of our attention on the influence that immigration reform is having on the U.S. labor market. And what it means for our outlook on Federal Reserve policy.It's Friday, June 13th at 9am in New York.So, Sam, news headlines have been dominated by developments in the President's immigration policies; what is being called by, at least some commentators, as a toughening in his stance.But I'd like to set the stage first with any new information that you think we've received on border encounters and interior removals. The administration has released new data on that recently that covered at least some of the activity earlier this year. What did it tell you? And did it differ markedly from your expectations?Sam Coffin: What we saw at first was border encounters falling sharply to 30,000 a month from 200,000 or 300,000 a month last year. It was perhaps a surprise that they fell that sharply. And on the flip side, interior removals turned out to be much more difficult than the administration had suggested. They'd been targeting maybe 500,000 per year in removals, 1500 a day. And we're hitting a third or a half of that pace.Michael Gapen: So maybe the recent escalation in ICE raids could be in response to this, right? The fact that interior removals have not been as large as some in the administration would desire.Sam Coffin: That's correct. And we think those efforts will continue. The House Budget Reconciliation Bill, for example, has about $155 billion more in the budget for ICE, a large increase over its current budget. This will likely mean greater efforts at interior removals. About half of it goes to stricter border enforcement. The other half goes to new agents and more operations. We'll see what the final bill looks like, but it would be about a five-fold increase in funding.Michael Gapen: Okay. So much fewer encounters, meaning fewer migrants entering the U.S., and stepped-up enforcement on interior removals. So, I guess, shifting gears on the back of that data. Two important visa programs have also been in the news. One is the so-called CHNV Parole Program that's allowed Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans to enter the U.S. on parole. The Supreme Court recently ruled that the administration could proceed with removing their immigration status.We also have immigrants on TPS, or Temporary Protected Status, which is subject to periodic removal; if the administration determines that the circumstances that warranted their immigration into the U.S. are no longer present. So, these would be immigrants coming to the U.S. in response to war, conflict, environmental disasters, hurricanes, so forth.So, Sam, how do you think about the ramping up of immigration controls in these areas? Is the end of these temporary programs important? How many immigrants are on them? And what would the cancellation of these mean in terms of your outlook for immigration?Sam Coffin: Yeah, for CHNV Paroles, there are about 500,000 people paroled into the U.S. The Supreme Court ruled that the administration can cancel those paroles. We expect now that those 500,000 are probably removed from the country over the next six months or so. And the temporary protected status; similarly, there are about 800,000 people on temporary protected status. About 600,000 of them have their temporary status revoked at this point or at least revoked sometime soon. And it looks like we'll get a couple hundred thousand in deportations out from that program this year and the rest next year.The result is net immigration probably falling to 300,000 people this year. We'd expected about a million, when we came into this year, but the faster pace of deportation takes that down. So, 300,000 this year and 300,000 next year, between the reduction in border encounters and the increase in deportations.Michael Gapen: So that's a big shift from what we thought coming into the year. What does that mean for population growth and growth in the labor force? And how would this compare – just put it in context from where we were coming out of the pandemic when immigration inflows were quite large.Sam Coffin: Yeah. Population growth before the pandemic was running 0.5 to 0.75 percent per year. With the large increase in immigration, it accelerated 1-1.25 percent during the years of the fastest immigration. At this point, it falls by about a point to 0.3-0.4 percent population growth over the next couple of years.Michael Gapen: So almost flat growth in the labor force, right? So, translate that into what economists would call a break-even employment rate. How much employment do you need to push the unemployment rate down or push the unemployment rate up?Sam Coffin: Yeah, so last year – I mean, we have the experience of last year. And last year about 200,000 a month in payroll growth was consistent with a flat unemployment rate. So far this year, that's full on to 160,000-170,000 a month, consistent with a flat unemployment rate. With further reduction in labor force growth, it would probably decline to about 70,000 a month. So much slower payrolls to hold the unemployment rate flat.Michael Gapen: So, as you know, we've taken the view, Sam, that immigration controls and restrictions will mean a few important things for the economy, right? One is fewer consuming households and softening demand, but the foreign-born worker has a much higher participation rate than domestic workers; about 4 to 5 percentage points higher.So, a lot less labor force growth, as you mentioned. How have these developments changed your view on exactly how hard it's going to be to push the unemployment rate higher?Sam Coffin: So, so far this year, payrolls have averaged about 140,000 a month, and the unemployment rate's been going sideways at 4.2 percent. It's been going sideways since – for about nine months now, in fact. We do expect that payroll growth slows over the course of this year, along with the slowing in domestic demand. We have payroll growth falling around 50,000 a month by late in the year; but the unemployment rate going sideways, 4.3 percent this year because of that decline in breakeven payrolls.For next year, we also have weak payroll growth. We also expect weak payroll growth of about 50,000 a month. But the unemployment rate rising somewhat more to 4.8 percent by the end of the year.Michael Gapen: So, immigration controls really mean the unemployment rate will rise, but less than you might expect and later than you might expect, right? So that's I guess what we would classify as the cyclical effect of immigration.But we also think immigration controls and a much slower growth in the labor force means downward pressure on potential. Where are we right now in terms of potential growth and where's that vis-a-vis where we were? And if these immigration controls go into place, where do we think potential growth is going?Sam Coffin: Well, GDP potential is measured as the sum of productivity growth and growth in trend hours worked. The slower immigration means slower labor force growth and less capacity for hours. We estimated potential growth between 2.5 and 3 percent growth in 2022 to 2024. But we have it falling to 2.0 percent presently – or back to where it was before COVID. If we're right on immigration going forward and we see those faster deportations and the continued stoppage at the border, it could mean potential growth of only 1.5 percent next year.Michael Gapen: That's a big change, of course, from where the economy was just, you know, 12 to 18 months ago. And I'd like to circle back to one point that you made in bringing up the recent employment numbers. In the May job report that was released last week, we also saw a decline in labor force participation. It went down two-tenths on the month.Now, on one hand that may have prevented a rise in the unemployment rate. It was 4.2 but could have been maybe 4.5 percent or so – had the participation rate held constant. So maybe the labor market weakened, and we just don't know it yet. But you have an idea that you've put forward in some of our reports that there might be another explanation behind the drop in the participation rate. What is that?Sam Coffin: It could be that the threat of increased deportations has created a chilling effect on the participation rate of undocumented workers.Michael Gapen: So, explain to listeners what we mean by a chilling effect in participation, right? We're not talking about restricting inflows or actual deportations. What are we referring to?Sam Coffin: Perhaps undocumented workers step out of the workforce temporarily to avoid detection, similar to how people stayed out of the workforce during the pandemic because of fear of infection or need to take care of children or parents. If this is the case, some of the foreign-born population may be stepping out of the labor force for a longer period of time.Michael Gapen: Right. Which would mean the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent is real and does not mask weakness in the labor market. So, whether it's less in migration, more interior removals, or a chilling effect on participation, then the labor market still stays tight.Sam Coffin: And this is why we think the Fed moves later but ultimately cuts more. It's a combination of tariffs and immigration.Michael Gapen: That's right. So, our baseline is that tariffs push inflation higher first, and so the Fed sees that. But if we're right on immigration and your forecast is that the unemployment rate finishes the year at 4.3, then the Fed just stays on hold. And it's not until the unemployment rate starts rising in 2026 that the Fed turns to cuts, right. So, we have cuts starting in March of next year. And the Fed cutting all the way down to 250 to 275.Well, I think altogether, Sam, this is what we know now. It's certainly a fluid situation. Headlines are changing rapidly, so our thoughts may evolve over time as the policy backdrop evolves. But Sam, thank you for speaking with me.Sam Coffin: Thank you very much.Michael Gapen: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Geopolitics & Empire
Michael Every: Neo-Mercantilism & the New World Order

Geopolitics & Empire

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2025 54:26


Michael Every of Rabobank discusses the evolving global financial and geopolitical landscape. He explores the potential transformation of the dollar system from one based on financialization to one focused on industrial production, possibly involving Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and dollar stablecoins, with the aim of reducing inequality both within and between countries. The conversation also touches on the concept of multipolarity and the emergence of regional blocs, while questioning whether any alternative currency or system can truly replace the dollar's global acceptance. He examines the potential for military conflict in this great interregnum period and explains neo-mercantilism as the key takeaway. Watch on BitChute / Brighteon / Rumble / Substack / YouTube Geopolitics & Empire · Michael Every: Neo-Mercantilism & the New World Order #563 *Support Geopolitics & Empire! Become a Member https://geopoliticsandempire.substack.com Donate https://geopoliticsandempire.com/donations Consult https://geopoliticsandempire.com/consultation **Visit Our Affiliates & Sponsors! Above Phone https://abovephone.com/?above=geopolitics easyDNS (15% off with GEOPOLITICS) https://easydns.com Escape Technocracy course (15% off with GEOPOLITICS) https://escapethetechnocracy.com/geopolitics PassVult https://passvult.com Sociatates Civis (CitizenHR, CitizenIT, CitizenPL) https://societates-civis.com Wise Wolf Gold https://www.wolfpack.gold/?ref=geopolitics Websites Rabobank https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-every X https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery About Michael Every Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank. He analyses major financial developments and contributes to the bank's various economic research publications for internal and external customers and to the media. Michael has over two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London. Michael holds a Masters degree in Economics (with distinction) from University College London and speaks a smattering of languages, including Thai. *Podcast intro music is from the song "The Queens Jig" by "Musicke & Mirth" from their album "Music for Two Lyra Viols": http://musicke-mirth.de/en/recordings.html (available on iTunes or Amazon)

The Inquiry
What does Japan's rice crisis say about its economy?

The Inquiry

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 22:59


A domestic rice shortage in Japan has caused supermarket shelves to empty and prices to double. Rice is more than a staple food in Japan—it carries deep cultural, historical and even spiritual significance. The rice crisis highlights broader weaknesses in Japan's economy. Japan imports over half of its food and has experienced persistent inflation. The country's economic resilience is being tested by supply chain pressures, demographic shifts, and increased trade tensions.Efforts to address the shortage have focused on auctioning rice reserves, but underlying economic challenges persist.Contributors: • Yi-Chun Ko, Professor, Asian Growth Research Institute, Fukuoka, Japan • Emiko Ohnuki-Tierney, William F. Vilas Research Professor, University of Wisconsin–Madison, US • Stefan Angrick, Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics, Tokyo, Japan • Norihiro Yamaguchi, Lead Economist, Oxford Economics, Tokyo, JapanPresenter: Charmaine Cozier Producer: Louise Clarke Researcher: Katie Morgan Editor: Tara McDermott Technical producer: Richard Hannaford Production Management Assistant: Liam Morrey