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It's been another interesting year in the world of personal finance and macroeconomics. As we look ahead to 2026… well, who really knows what's coming? I'll be sharing my own take—and making a few predictions—in an upcoming episode. What's hard to ignore is just how unusual this moment in history is. We're coming off COVID. We went through a rapid rise in interest rates, and now a pullback. Tariffs are back in the conversation. There are a lot of moving parts, and as usual, the consensus hasn't exactly nailed it. Almost every expert was convinced tariffs would push inflation higher. I expected at least a temporary bump—some transient inflation while markets adjusted. Then the CPI report came out at 2.7%. That's a lot closer to the Fed's 2% target, and nearly half a percentage point lower than expectations. Clearly, something else is going on. At the same time, GDP came in at around 4.3% growth. That's real strength. Inflation is coming down, growth is strong, and while the labor market is still a little murky, there's no question there's underlying momentum in the system. Investors haven't quite felt it yet. It's been a sticky environment. But my sense is that we're getting closer to a shift—more liquidity, more money in the system, and markets that may start moving meaningfully again. Of course, we'll see how it all plays out. For this episode, my producer Phil pulled together some of the highlights from the show in 2025—a look back at the conversations and ideas that stood out in a year when the data kept surprising just about everyone. I hope you enjoy it. And again, happy holidays. Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com.  Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with D Wealth Formula Podcast, coming to you from Montecito, California and, uh, want to wish you, first of all, a happy holidays. Merry Christmas, happy new Year, all that. And, uh, yeah, it’s been, uh, it’s been another, uh, another interesting year in the world of personal finance and macroeconomics is what, what we talk about on the show. And as we look forward to 2026, gosh, who knows what’s gonna happen, right? Uh, well I’ll give you my take in, uh, show coming up where I’m gonna make some predictions. However, you know, it’s just, it, it, it’s just such an unusual time in, in history. Um, as we kind of look at. Coming off of COVID and having those high interest rates and then coming, uh, coming down and then having Trump elected and now the tariffs and well, gosh, who knows? Right? I mean, just for example, you know, almost every expert was pretty much guaranteeing that inflation would go up because of the tariffs. I mean, even if it was transient, which frankly I thought it was gonna be transient, meaning that there was gonna be a bump in inflation. For a period of time until there was a readjustment after tariffs. Well, TPI comes up most recent CPI is actually 2.7. You know, that’s much closer to the fed target of 2%. And, um, 2.7 was, you know, I think, uh, almost a half, half percentage point less than the expected, uh, CPI, uh, report. So that, that’s obviously something else is going on there. And then. GDP numbers came out and we had a four handle. It was like 4.3, I believe, GDP. So we’ve got incredible growth. We’ve got decreasing inflation. The labor market is still, I know, a little unclear, but it seems like there’s a lot of strength in this market. Of course, it’s really sticky investors. We haven’t quite felt that strength yet, but I do think you need to start anticipating. That markets are gonna come back pretty heavy, uh, with increased liquidity, uh, and a lot of money in the system. But we shall see, uh, this show. What we’re gonna do here is, uh, my, uh, producer Phil put this together, but it’s basically some of the highlights of, uh, the show in, in 2025. So hopefully you enjoy it. Uh, and again, happy holidays. Merry Christmas, new Year. And we’ll be back right after these messages. Wealth Formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own. Bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying. You compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your investments get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique, it’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its back. Turbocharge your investments. Visit wealth formula banking.com. Again, that’s wealth formula banking.com. How do you approach the process of identifying stocks that are maybe best suited for consis consistent cash flow? Or do you just pick the stocks that you like and, and create the cash flow? Or are, you know, fundamental metrics that maybe you prioritize? Yeah, the, the, the first thing to determine. I think real estate investors understand this is if I were to invest in real estate, I’m gonna determine whether I’m gonna be a flipper, or I’m gonna try and buy low forced depreciation, sell high. Or if I’m gonna be a cashflow investor where I might invest in syndication, or I am, I’m gonna have tenants in property management. And the same is true with stocks. Most people start off by thinking about price rather than cash flow. They think about buy low, sell high, like a house slipper, and that’s, that’s less tenable in stocks because in real estate, if I buy low and sell high, I can do things to force appreciation. I can renovate, I can get new management, I can put in new appliances. I, there’s things I can do to force appreciation. But once a person buys a stock, there’s absolutely nothing you can do to make the stock price go up. But if you take a a, if you think of it like a real estate investor. You think about it like owning a business where the priority, as you mentioned these metrics, the priority is, Hey, what kind of cashflow will this produce be in terms of dividends and in my case, option premiums. And so some of the key metrics is, you know, if I, I’m basically buying a financial statement, same as real estate. You know, I, I, I, it is just a little different numbers in real estate. I wanna know what the net operating income is. In stocks, I might wanna know what the EBITDA is ’cause they’re essentially looking at the same types of things in real estate. I wanna know what the cap rate is in stocks. I wanna know what the PE ratio is, which is just the same number inverted. They just put the price on the top instead of the bottom. To me, I don’t see a difference between real estate and stocks, uh, in that they’re both a business or they charge someone for a good or a service. And there’s either cashflow there at the end of it or not. If people take a cash flow approach, they can begin to build on their passive income. And that contributes to that blueprint we mentioned earlier to get ’em outta the route race. So if you take a Warren Buffet approach, the most important number in that business is operational cash flow or earnings. Meaning does what they do, their operation. You know, you walk in there, a nice operation you got going here, you know, trucks are moving and you know, products are being built and shipped and, and nice operation. If they’re earning money, that means that’s the life flood of the business. That means it’s got a good moat. That means it’s pretty protected and that allows them to do two things for me. Number one is a dividend, which is exactly the same thing as a distribution in real estate. Uh, there is no difference, uh, in a syndication. I have a whole bunch of investors I’ve joined with where you have a share of this project and when the earnings come out, they distribute the, the distributions among the share shareholders. Same is true with stocks. They take the earnings, uh, we call it a payout ratio, and they take a, a, a significant amount of that money and they pay it in a dividend, same as a distribution. But what I do that’s a little bit unique buck is, uh, is I also have the options market on my side. Where I can use options to control risk, uh, to get guarantees where I can buy and sell, but even more importantly, I can offer, uh, and get paid for making promises to people. This is very much a Warren Buffet deal where it, it brings a significant increase to my monthly cash flow beyond the dividend, up to three, two and three times. Uh, the amount of money, two to 300% more cash flow. By being involved in the options market and that’s, that’s a nice secret sauce. The yield max Tesla option income, ETF, which is TSLY. And basically what it does is. Is it just does a series of longs and shorts and, and then generates what looks like to be kind of a, a ridiculous amount of, uh, dividend, uh, per, per month. So what are we missing here? What, what’s, well, you’re, you’re basically hiring those guys to mow your grass. It’s just like any other mutual fund or any other. They’re doing something you could absolutely do by yourself and not pay them a fee. There’s two cultures. There’s the advice culture and there’s the education culture and the advice culture. People say, look, I don’t wanna learn anything. Just gimme the advice. Well, you’ll pay for that in fees. And the problem with doing that is if you really listen to Warren Buffett, which 1% is enormous. Because in the wealth blueprint that we do for people, we use compounding. We use the compounding calculator to see what we’re gonna need. You drop that 1%, you give up 1% of your compounding powers as an investor over your life, it, it wouldn’t seem like 1%, but Buffet knows the truth. It’s enormous. So yeah, absolutely there are ETFs and there are funds that will do exactly what I do or what I teach people to do, but we have some advantages in doing it yourself because risk is about control. I trust myself more than I trust those guys any day of the week. And like I say, I’m doing this by month, so yeah. But it’s legit. How do you even make predictions? And second of all, I mean presumably you still have some forecasts over the next, uh, 12 to 24 months, and maybe you could tell us a little bit about that. Our methodology lends itself to times of uncertainty like this, and that’s the benefit of really relying on the leading indicators that we have. Now. We do have to take a little bit of a different approach. We have to look at data in a lot higher frequency today. You know, a lot of the data you get from government sources or quarterly data, monthly data, but we’re having to track weekly trends with the ever-changing environment that we find ourselves in. So we’re not surprised by the time any monthly or quarterly data comes out. The level of uncertainty that we’re dealing with is certainly unprecedented. I share an index each day, um, and we are three times more uncertain today than we were at the height of the pandemic. You know, put that in perspective, right? Yeah. So we do have to adjust, um. The, the way that we’re looking at data with higher frequencies, we also have to rerun a lot of these correlation analysis. Every single time we get a new data point to see are these lead times becoming more condensed? Do we have to make adjustments in our models as a result to maybe data reacting quicker than it might have in the past? So those are some of the ways that we’re, we’re continuing to evolve in these interesting times we live in. This relates to our forecast. Our team expected some weakness in the first part of this year, and, and we knew that coming in with the, with the tariffs that were proposed during President Trump’s campaign, we did have a weak first quarter GDP number forecast. Our team was 0.1% off of nailing that first quarter GDP number, so they were right on the money there. Uh, we were very impressed with that, but we do expect a sluggish first half of the year. We call it the recovery phase of the cycle. What we mean by that is our growth rates are still building momentum, but are still negative year over year. You know, ITR. Really known for its emphasis on leading indicators. So which of the leading indicators you guys rely on the most when and, and I guess which are flashing red or green right now? I’ll give you one of each. Uh, yeah. The one we’re in right now, we look at the purchasing managers, index isms, purchasing managers index. Now we look at at on a one 12 basis. What I mean by that is we compare the most recent month, the same month one year ago. The reason we look at it on that basis is it gives us 12 month lead time into the future when you correlate it to the economy. That index was recently rising until we got the most recent month of data, and then it dropped back down. So that is giving us the mixed signal of, hey, we need to be a little bit more concerned about the prospect for growth moving forward. Now the opposite is true when we look at an indicator called capacity utilization. What Capacity utilization measures, it’s about an eight month lead time to the economy. So still a nice view into the future, but what it measures is output over capacity, and that actually continues to improve meaning. And again, really all that means on a simple level is we’re utilizing more of our existing capacity, so we’re getting busier. If we look at the consumer side of inflation that the Fed’s more concerned about in terms of setting policy, we have inflation essentially flat this year from where we are today. Now, if you look at the CPI, it’s at 2.8%. Our projection for the end of the year is 2.8%. We don’t see inflation coming down much at all. As a result of that, that’s why you’re seeing Chairman Powell back off being able to cut rates and is holding these rates steady because he sees these higher inflation risks as well. And so from our perspective, it’s very unlikely you see any meaningful interest rate decline this year. Yeah. Now again, the second quarter, GDP number can have an impact on that. We do see a very weak second quarter chairman Powell alluded just a couple of days ago to some slack in the labor market. Maybe you can get a quarter point if we have a really weak second quarter, quarter point cut, but it just seems very unlikely given how persistent inflation has been. And so we tell all of our clients, prepare for interest rates to be relatively flat this year, and prepare for interest rates to rise through the balance of the second half of the decade. It’s not just tariffs, it’s employment costs, it’s electricity costs, it’s material costs. There’s a lot more driving higher inflation than just tariffs. What macroeconomic trends are you watching right now with regards to how they’re shaping the markets today? I think there’s really three things right over the long run. They’re gonna debase the currency, that’s gonna be a persistent tailwind for all liquid, uh, assets, including stocks. Bitcoin gold and bonds. And then I think that you also are going to have a, uh, very interesting dynamic around all these tariffs, uh, and kind of the administration’s economic policies. And then the third thing is that there is a whole technology, uh, trend to, uh, pay attention to. Uh, obviously innovation is very deflationary. Uh, we’ve got, you know, things from humanoid robots to rockets to gene editing, to uh, to crypto and everything in between. And so I think those three things really tell the story of where, uh, markets potentially go in the future. When I grew up, um. S and P 500 was the benchmark. There’s a risk-free rate in bonds. I believe that my generation and younger sees Bitcoin as the benchmark. And so, uh, it’s very simple. If you can’t beat it, you gotta buy it. And I think that there’s institutions around the country who are realizing they can’t beat the benchmark and therefore they will end up buying it. And really, to me, that is, uh, maybe the most interesting. Part of the entire conversation is that Bitcoin obviously has risen significantly on a percentage basis in appreciation. Bitcoin has kind of infiltrated every corner of finance, but most importantly is it has transitioned from a high risk, you know, kind of asymmetric type asset to now it’s becoming the hurdle rate uhhuh. And if you’re the hurdle rate, you suck up a lot of capital. Yeah. Because there’s not a lot of people who can beat you. And I think that that is a very powerful position for Bitcoin to be in. And that’s how you infiltrate into, uh, the institutional portfolios. Bitcoin will stop going up. When they stop printing money. I don’t think they’re gonna stop printing money, so I don’t think Bitcoin’s gonna stop going up. That’s kind of one huge component of this. The second thing is that Bitcoin is very unique in that the higher the price goes, the less risky it is deemed by the largest pools of capital. Mm-hmm. And so usually, you know, if NVIDIA’s at a $4 trillion market cap, people like, oh, it might be overvalued there. A lot of debate. Right. Bitcoin if it was at a $4 trillion market cap would be way less risky than it when’s at 2 trillion. And so there is a lot of structural advantages, both from the legacy world but also from the Bitcoin market that I think will continue to lead to these large institutional capital pools. Uh, allocating some percentage. And the beauty is right now we have very small adoption in that world. Uh, it’s only gonna get bigger. It’s only gonna get more normalized. And I think that one of the parts people really underestimate when it comes to Bitcoin is how important time passing is. You know, if you think back, uh, there is not anyone under the age of 16 that has lived their life without Bitcoin existing. If you’re keeping large chunks of money in savings account, paying less than 1% or any percent less than inflation, you’re bleeding wealth every single day. It feels safe. It looks safe, right? ’cause the numbers may not be moving nominally but it, but it’s not safe. It’s a bucket with a hole in the bottom and you don’t even notice until it’s almost empty. That’s why the wealthy don’t hoard cash. They own assets. They own assets that inflate with inflation. If you can’t beat ’em, join them. They buy things that grow in value as dollars shrink because they understand the system. They don’t fight it, they ride it. So you’ve said many times that the current monetary system is broken and headed for reckoning. So from your perspective, what are the core flaws in the system right now and how do we get here? Well, probably the largest and most obvious underlying flaw in the monetary system is the fact that the federal government just can’t balance its budget. And so they have to take on debt to cover the deficit that they run and that deficit. Well, you know, over the course of the last 20 years, it’s gone up and down. More recently, it’s gone mostly up and, uh. We just came through a period where, you know, it was reemphasized to everybody. Just what a problem this is. Because as you’ll recall, when Trump was first elected, they were talking about those, the Department of Government Efficiency and cutting expenses and you know, maybe 2 trillion or 1 trillion. Of course, then Elon got frustrated and left and the numbers have come down and you know, Trump and the Freedom Caucus was saying they were gonna try and balance the budget or at least cut expenses. And of course, what we know is that they just passed this big beautiful bill. Which really increases the deficits and they bump the debt, uh, ceiling up by another $5 trillion. So sadly, what do many of us have seen and been saying, which is to say they just can’t stop, kind of continue. Seems to be continuing. And, um, you know, the reason why that, just to close the full circle, the reason why that matters is they, they do this debt, they issue debt to cover these deficits, and then the debt requires interest payments and, you know, there’s not enough money to make the interest payments. And so. They more or less have to print the money, you know, and inflate the money supply to keep the system going. And that’s why it’s so important to hard assets. You know, we need to grow the economy at, you know, 4, 5, 6, 7% a year, which, which we’ve never really done on real terms. Well, I think that is kind of what they’re projecting it might be, but it, it’s gonna be harder than hell to achieve. I mean, it just, where you can’t just snap your fingers and create that growth. Now, don’t get me wrong, if you start to, if you ramp up inflation. If you have 10% inflation, well then the GDP number’s gonna get bigger, fast. And so really the model they’ve used, they call it the R Star model, is that they’ve got to have faster growth. Growth rate has to be higher than interest rates, or else you’re in a debt spiral. And so what’s been happening is, by the way, that’s why Trump wants to take interest rates down so much. You know, he is called for a 300 basis point cut. Imagine right now with inflation running at three plus percent, if they cut rates to one point a half percent or one point a quarter percent, I mean, it would be good for the economy. People would refi their houses. You know, there were all kinds of, you know, growth, right? Huge. But in turn it would be inflationary, very inflationary. That’s the trap. They’re really kind of caught in. It’s a seventies kind of stagflation sort of environment. You know, if they don’t keep rates low, they’re not gonna have any growth. If they want to get growth, they’ve gotta keep rates low. That’s gonna lead to monetary creation, which is gonna lead to inflation. Look how it all resolves is very complicated and none of us know. Yeah, sure. But what I do know with very high certainty, with a lot of confidence is this is going to be an inflationary decade. It’s already been an inflationary decade, and because of the way the math is today is very highly likely to continue to be an inflationary decade until we fix this monetary system. Well, we have less than 3% adoption. Three goes to six fairly easily. You know, human beings underestimate how long change really requires, and then we really underestimate how much change actually occurs. Think the internet like we are moving into a digital planet, right? Robots are not going to use credit cards, man. They’re not gonna use, they don’t need visa. We don’t need middlemen. The cool thing about Bitcoin, unlike the Rolls Royce, is you don’t have to buy the whole Rolls Royce. You can buy a fraction of it. You know, you don’t, maybe you guys partner with each other to do apartment buildings. Well, you’re already doing fractured deals on apartment buildings, so Sure. It’s not really that different. 2%, 3% goes to six. I mean, it does go to six. You have the largest ETF in the history of ETFs, okay? This supersedes the goal. ETF by orders of magnitude. I study markets very, very well, price. Really gets people’s attention. I think price is, uh, 90% of Bitcoin. Like I am truly a supply and demand guy. Oh wow. 21 million. And you guys have lost four. You lost 4 million coins. Oh, how’d you lose the 4 million? You lost the 4 million. I know how you lost it. You mispriced it. Bitcoin has been mispriced every day. Its entire history. Dude. 19 million coins have been issued. The addressable market is 8 billion people. You don’t need ’em all. Yep. You just need a small function of those 8 billion to go, Ooh. 21 million units and and four have been lost. It’s already mispriced. Okay. They’re pricing Bitcoin at one 15 Today, assuming there’s 21 million units, we know there’s not. There’s 17, so the supply shrunk. The market caps at 2 trillion. Hello. The standard deduction for a household is now, uh, what in a low 32,000 range. And it turns out that 60% of the households in the United States cannot take advantage of itemized deductions. That is when they take their mortgage interest, property taxes, charitable deductions, they don’t get that number. And so there’s not as much benefit to home ownership as there used to be in the United States. With our big institutional players, nobody wants their appraised values to be quickly marked down to market, because if your competitors don’t do the same thing and they’re part of the index and benchmark that you compete against, you’re going to underperform. And so we’ve traditionally had a lot. Appraised values for real estate among the institutional players, especially. You don’t get this out of the private market, but you get this from the nare players, the institutional type players, and, um, and everybody’s, uh, uh, fearful of underperforming that index. I would prefer as a private investor just to go ahead, bite the bullet and mark it down. Now take the pain if in fact you’ve seen it go down. Some markets have seen property values go down 30, 35% even in multifamily, but they’ve bottomed out in the transaction market and, and absolutely the, uh, the appraisers are gonna have to bring it down and the owners are gonna have to ease up that pressure and say, yes, I want a realistic appraisal. But, um, but there is that fear of underperforming the index and that’s. What’s holding up the American appraisal firms in 2008, 9, 10, 11, we saw a lot of deep distress. The the smart money was ready for it. Now, there’s a lot of people with dry powder, as we say. Ready to p on the market hoping for some distress from those who cannot refinance now, whose, whose CMBS loan or other money is, is rolling. A couple points there. One is, I think you’re going to see more loan modifications this cycle than last time because they realize it’s temporary and they realize that not all properties are in trouble. And these tend to be the higher leverage properties. The smart private wealth investors tended to use conservative leverage over the last several years knowing we’d hit a cycle and, and they probably are 65% or less. Leverage some of the, um, greener newer investment managers might have gone up to 80% and might have even used variable rate debt when they shouldn’t have. They’re the ones getting nailed. They’re losing all their equity and that property is distressed. So there’s not that much of it out there. But there’s a little bit, and I would certainly pounce on it if you can find it. There are often a lot of sort of hidden costs associated with buying versus renting. Can you talk about trying to weed through some of that? Sure some of the highest costs that we don’t think about when we own, although we do take cut down on risk. And also I think that’s come back to consumption. I, I is the fact that there’s the opportunity cost. So think about having 50%, a hundred percent of your home paid for. This, it’s the opportunity cost. You’ve actually taken capital out of play at higher returns to put it into something that perhaps, yes, you see it as a form of an investment, but it’s also partly consumption. And I think that’s why many people end up paying for their homes when they can, because there’s an old saying, and that is, you can’t go broke if you don’t owe money on it. Right? So if you, it’s hard for the lender to come get your home and you don’t really care, right? You wanna be able to. Have no debt on your home. It doesn’t make the typical financial sense if we argue at it from leverage and returns and maximization of returns. I think most people this high end level are looking at, you know, I, I, I, I have high net worth. I’m looking at both consumption and the investment side of the component. But very often the consumption wins and the investment is I can be safe and I can own this house. Outright in many states too. Your homeowner, the home that you live in, you are actually, if you’ve homesteaded the home, you’re actually protected against lawsuits and other things that are out there. Divorce cases will protect your position in, in terms of a homestead, so you can protect a significant portion of wealth by having a paid for home. What are some of those markets that are really overpriced versus. I guess underpriced right now. So when we look at the top 10 most overpriced markets in America right now, we look at their prices, where they are and compare them to where they should be statistically modeling them. We’re seeing the most overpriced markets are Detroit at 33.5% and then falling, falling, descending. Order of Cleveland, Ohio. New Haven, Connecticut, Akron, Ohio, Worcester, Massachusetts, Las Vegas, Nevada, Hartford, Connecticut. Rochester, New York, Knoxville, Tennessee, Toledo, Ohio. You’ll notice. And these are overpriced. These are overpriced. These, the overpriced mark. That’s so, that’s sort of counterintuitive, isn’t it? Ab absolutely. But yes. Wow. Okay. And then h how about the, uh, underpriced markets? I’m curious on that too. Sure. So when we then go to the opposite end of the spectrum, and usually now with underpriced comes risk and there’s risk in both of these markets, what you wanna do, both overpriced and underpriced, what you wanna be long term in a housing market. Uh, ’cause you want to be really close to that trend and not have these dramatic swings. It’s just like stock price. We don’t like volatility. Housing, it’s, it’s dangerous for performance. The most underpriced markets. We only have four markets in America right now that are trading at a discount relative to their long-term pricing trend. In other words, statistically, where they historically prices say prices should be today only four cities are underperforming. That that’s Austin, Texas at 3.1% below where they should be, or a discount of 3.1%. San Francisco at a discount of 6.5%. Wow. New Orleans, Louisiana at a discount of 8.7 and Honolulu, Hawaii at a discount of 10.3. Notice I’m not saying these markets are inexpensive. They’re just below where they’ve historically been. These are the best buys right now because they’re below their long-term trend. One of our other indices, we call it our price to rent ratio. It’s really a PE ratio for rents versus home ownership. And then so we can look at that. So if you’re in our a hundred markets, we know the average price, right? So it’s gonna be priced, divided by the annual average rent. So it’s gonna be how many dollars in price do you pay for every $1 and annual rent? And that gives us the relative difference between owning and renting. The higher that ratio. The, the more you should on in general be leaning towards renting, the lower that ratio, the more you should be leaning towards owning. And we used to do an old buy versus rent index for 23 cities. We now do it for 100 cities. And this price to rent ratio produces almost the same exact answer. So when we look at the average price to rent ratio in an area and we just compare, are they above or currently are you above the price to rent ratio? Uh, for Los Angeles, California. Are you below it? If you’re above that average for say the last 10 years, you’re gonna be rent friendly. If you’re below it, you’re gonna be bio friendly. I can do this very quickly. Pick a California market you’d like to know about. Why don’t we try Dallas, Texas. Okay. Dallas, Texas. That one’s in the top 100 in terms of population. So Dallas, Texas, uh, their price to rent ratio is at about a, just below a 6% premium. In other words, that trade off between renting and owning is about 6% above where it should be, so it slightly favors renting. I’ll jump to the next index. If we look at actual prices in Dallas, there’s a slight premium. So it’s, it’s, it’s telling me, Hey, that my price to rent ratio’s high, slightly favoring ownership, but it’s probably because prices are a little high and they might change. Uh, Dallas has had a bit of a. Premium right now. So I will now go look at Dallas rents. My gut feeling is they’re gonna be below average and they are. They’re at about a 4.5% discount. So that’s just market dynamics in motion right there. And we can do that for a hundred cities pretty quickly. Mm-hmm. You make a lot of money, but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties, now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Good news. If you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program. M put off by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concepts here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world, and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealth formula banking.com. Welcome back to the show everyone. Hope you enjoyed it and uh, once again. Thanks again for listening. Uh, I truly appreciate your support. I hope, uh, I hope it’s been entertaining for you and that you’ll learn something along the way and, um, you know, always appreciate your feedback. Shoot me an email, bucket wealth formula.com. Let me know if there’s things that you want me to do. Let me know if there’s things you wanna hear more about. Uh, but hopefully it’s gonna be a good year and we’re gonna keep plugging away talking about the, you know, try to get educated myself and pass along information to you on Wealth Formula Podcast. That’s it for me this week on Wealth Formula Podcast. This is Buck Joffrey. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheel Wright and Ken McElroy. Visit well formula roadmap.com.

Click to text the show!CMBS loans can be great for stabilized properties. They offer great terms and low rates. But what happens if you want to talk to a real human about your loan? What if you need a loan modification? With CMBS, a nightmare will ensue. Michael Cohen specializes in helping borrowers do CMBS loan workouts. Connect with Michael:https://brightoncapitaladvisors.com/https://www.linkedin.com/company/brightoncapitaladvisors/ Email Jonathan with comments or suggestions:podcast@thesourcecre.comOr visit the webpage:www.thesourcecre.com*The audio of this podcast is never generated by AI. However, some or all of the show notes and images may have been generated using AI tools.

R. Kenner French and Liliana Falconer set the stage for a deep dive into multiple real estate sectors: multifamily, commercial finance, commercial properties, tiny homes, and hard money lending. Their shared excitement emphasizes that this event is designed to provide massive value to business owners, investors, and entrepreneurs who want real, practical knowledge they can apply.One of the most anticipated guests is Dr. Erin Hudson, known for pioneering tiny home investments using repurposed shipping containers. Kenner highlights how investors can buy these affordable units and generate significant cashflow, while Liliana shares her personal connection to tiny or mobile living through her own school bus–to–RV conversion years ago. Their exchange underscores the growing popularity and profitability of small-space living as a viable real estate strategy.The discussion praises Jake's combination of youth, hunger, and new ideas, backstopped by a legacy of expertise from his father. Liliana notes the powerful balance between a seasoned perspective and a fresh set of eyes—making his session valuable for both new and experienced investors looking to understand private lending options that many never explore.The expo also features veteran financier Harvey Goldberg, described as a pioneer in commercial finance who excels at simplifying complex topics like CMBS, bridge loans, and life insurance–based lending. Liliana stresses that attendees should actively use the chat to ask questions during his talk. Following Harvey is Keith Andrews, an expert at uncovering “hidden” commercial properties that aren't publicly listed. Kenner explains that expanding the deal universe—say from 100 to 150 properties—dramatically increases the odds of finding superior investments, and Keith reveals exactly how to do that.Kenner and Liliana wrap the introduction by reminding attendees that this expo isn't just about information—it's about community. Vast Solutions Group offers a network of entrepreneurs, solopreneurs, and investors who can support each other, especially those who often feel isolated in business. They encourage participants to submit questions, engage in the chat, and take advantage of the expertise being shared. The message is simple: buckle up, absorb as much as possible, and know that VastSolutionsGroup.com is here to help entrepreneurs grow smarter, stronger, and more connected.Takeaways• This is the greatest webinar of all time.• The Vast Cast is packed with valuable information.• Tiny homes can be profitable investments.• Hard money loans are available for commercial properties.• There are private money options for financing.• Understanding commercial property financing is crucial.• Expert speakers will provide valuable insights.• Hidden commercial real estate opportunities exist.• Community support is vital for entrepreneurs.• Get ready to absorb a lot of information.Sound Bites• makes them really easy• tremendous value• we're here for youListen & Subscribe for More:

Live from Morgan Stanley's Asian Pacific Summit, our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains why micro trends are likely to be more on focus than macro shocks next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist, coming to you from the Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit underway in Singapore. Much of the client conversation at the summit was about the market outlook for 2026. In the last few days, you've heard from my colleagues about our outlook for the global economy, equities and cross asset markets. On today's podcast, I will focus on the outlook and key themes ahead for the global fixed income market. It's Thursday, November 20th at 10am in Singapore. Last year, the difficulty of predicting policy really complicated our task. This year brings its own challenges. But what we see is micro trends driving the markets in ways that adapt to a generally positive stance on risk. Our economists' base case sees continued disinflation and growth converging towards potential by 2027, with the possibility that the potential itself improves. Notably, they present upside scenarios exploring stronger demand and rising productivity, while the downside case remains relatively benign. The U.S. remains pivotal, and the U.S. led shocks – positive and negative – should drive outcomes for the global economy and markets in 2026, In 2025, the combination of a resilient U.S. consumer supported by healthy balance sheets and rising wealth alongside robust AI driven CapEx has underpinned growth and helped avoid recession despite the headwinds of trade policy. These same dynamics should continue to support the baseline outlook in 2026, even though the path will be likely uneven. The Fed faces a familiar conundrum softening labor markets versus solid spending. The baseline assumes cuts to neutral as unemployment rises, followed by a recovery in the second half. Outside the U.S., most economies trend towards potential growth and neutral policy rates by end of 2026, but the timing and the trajectory vary. And as in recent years, global outcomes will likely hinge on U.S.-led effects and their spillovers. Our macro strategists expect government bond yields to stay range bound, and it is really a story of two halves. A front-loaded rally as the Fed cuts 50 basis points, pushing 10-year yields lower by mid-year before drifting higher into the fourth quarter. Curve steepening remains our high conviction call, especially two stents curve. The dollar follows a similar arc, softening mid-year, and then rebounding into the year end. AI financing moves to the forefront putting credit markets in focus, a topic that has come up repeatedly in every single meeting I've had in Singapore so far. So, from unsecured to structured and securitized credit in both public markets and private markets, credit will likely play a central role in enabling the next wave of AI related investments. Our credit and securitized credit strategists see data center financing in 2026 dominated by investment rate issuance. While fundamentals in corporate and securitized credit remain solid, the very scale of issuance ahead points to spread widening investment rate and in data center related ABS. Carry remains a key driver for credit returns, but dispersion should rise. Segments relatively insulated from the AI related supply such as U.S. high yield, agency brokerage backed securities, non-agency CMBS and RMBS are poised to outperform. We favor agency MBS and senior securitized tranches over U.S. investment grade, especially as domestic bank demand for agency MBS returns post finalization of the Basel III. 2025 was a tough year to navigate, and while we are constructive on 2026, it won't be a walk in the park. The challenges ahead look different. Less about macro shocks, more about micro shifts and market nuance. More details in our outlooks published just a few days ago. Thanks for listening If you like the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

PT Asset Management CEO Sean Dranfield talked with Proactive's Stephen Gunnion about navigating the current interest rate environment through the company's Performance Trust Total Return Bond UCITS ETF. Dranfield outlined how the fund is outperforming its benchmark despite recent market headwinds, attributing this success to a deliberate balance of offensive and defensive allocations. “We're trying to source total return from these nontraditional sources,” he said, noting the unpredictability of interest rates as a key consideration in their approach. He highlighted that elevated yield levels across the curve make today's bond market a more compelling environment than in previous years. On the offensive side, Dranfield pointed to the steepness of the yield curve—particularly in the 20-year Treasury and municipal bond space—as an underappreciated driver of total return that traditional yield and duration metrics often miss. On the defensive end, he noted that interest-only commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and very short investment-grade corporates offer yield without significant rate risk. These instruments help the fund remain rate-agnostic while still targeting total returns in the 5% to 6% range. Dranfield also expressed concern about tight spreads in investment-grade corporates, prompting the team to look elsewhere for opportunities with better risk-reward dynamics. “There are some really interesting opportunities both offensively and defensively right now,” he noted. For more insights like this, head to the Proactive YouTube channel. Don't forget to like the video, subscribe to the channel, and enable notifications so you never miss an update. #BondMarket #InterestRates #FixedIncome #ETFs #InvestmentStrategy #PTAssetManagement #SeanDranfield #YieldCurve #CMBS #Treasuries #ProactiveInvestors #TotalReturn #RateStrategy

On today's show we are talking about how to interact with a lender. If you're in the game of real estate, chances are you've borrowed money. Lenders come in all shapes and sizes from the traditional community and regional banks, to the larger agency debt like Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, to the government sponsored loans from HUD or SBA. There are then numerous private options including debt funds, CMBS loans, preferred equity, CPACE  and mezzanine lenders. They all have one thing in common. They will go through an underwriting process that requires you to provide documentation about the borrower, the guarantor if it's a recourse loan and the property. Those requirements will be listed generally on a term sheet, and then perhaps later in the process in a commitment letter, or a closing checklist.On today's show I'm going to share what we believe are best practices, or at least I'm going to share how we manage this process in our development company. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

CMBS delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession — but what does that really mean for multifamily investors? Jamison Manwaring unpacks the data behind rising commercial distress, explaining how interest rate spikes, construction booms, and tighter lending have collided to create today's challenges — and opportunities. We also break down how new legislation is reshaping real estate, from extended Opportunity Zones and renewed bonus depreciation to why 1031 exchanges and UPREIT structures remain intact. Finally, Jamison offers perspective on why long-term fundamentals for multifamily remain strong and why patient investors could benefit most in this cycle.

David Politano, Managing Director and Head of Debt Strategies for MetLife Investment Management's Real Estate group, brings more than 30 years of experience to the conversation as he joins the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast. In this episode, he explains how insurance companies' approach to commercial real estate lending differs from traditional bank and CMBS channels - focusing on long-term, cradle-to-grave loan management with an emphasis on credit quality and relationship-based underwriting.   David walks through the structural advantages of insurer-held CRE debt, performance comparisons post-COVID, and how real estate market dynamics, especially in the office sector, are evolving. He also provides perspectives on pricing trends, global opportunities like Mexico industrial, and what insurers should consider in today's competitive lending environment. Backed by deep institutional knowledge and a client-first investment philosophy, this episode offers valuable context for insurers navigating CRE debt in 2025 and beyond.

With Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference underway, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets joins Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur to discuss private credit, M&A activity and AI infrastructure.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan StanleyVishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Andrew Sheets: Today, as we're hosting the Morgan Stanley European Leveraged Finance Conference, a discussion of three of the biggest topics on the minds of credit investors worldwide.It's Thursday, October 16th at 4pm in London.Vishy, it's so great to catch up with you here in London. I know you've been running around the world, quite literally, talking to investors about some of the biggest debates in credit – and that's exactly what we wanted to talk. We're here at Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference. We're talking with investors about the biggest debates, the biggest developments in credit markets, and there are really kind of three topics that stand out.There's what's going on with private credit? What's going on with the merger and acquisition, the M&A cycle? And how are we going to fund all of this AI infrastructure?And so maybe I'll throw the first question to you. We hear a lot about private credit, and so maybe just for the listener who's looking at a lot of different things. First, how do you define it? What are we really talking about when we're talking about private credit?Vishy Tirupattur: So, Andrew, when we talk about private credit, the most common understanding of private credit is lending by non-banks to small and medium sized companies. And we probably will discuss a bit later that this definition is actually expanding much beyond this narrow definition. So, when you think about private credit and spend time understanding what is the credit in private credit, what it boils down to is on average, on a leveraged basis, the credit in private credit is comparable to, say CCC to B - on a coverage basis to the public markets.So, the credits in the private credit market are weaker. But on the other hand, the quality of covenants in these deals is significantly better compared to the public credit markets. So, that's the credit in private credit.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, with that in mind then, what is the concern in this market? Or conversely, where do people see the opportunity?Vishy Tirupattur: So, the concern in this market comes from the opaqueness in these deals. Many of these private credit borrowers are not public filers. So not much is well known about what the underlying details are. But in a sense, a good part of the public markets, whether it's in high yield bonds or in the public, broadly syndicated leveraged loans are also not public filers. So, there is information asymmetry in those markets as well.So, the issue is not the opaqueness of private markets, but opaqueness in credit in general. But that said, when you look at the metrics of leverage, coverage, cash on balance sheet…Andrew Sheets: Because we can get some kind of high-level sense of what is in these portfolios...Vishy Tirupattur: Yeah. And we look at all those metrics, and we look at a wide range of metrics. We don't get to the conclusion that we are at a precipice of some systemic risk exposure in credit. On the other hand, there are idiosyncratic issues. And these idiosyncratic issues have always been there and will remain there. And we would expect that the default rates are sticky around these levels, which are slightly above the long-term average levels, and we expect that to remain.Andrew Sheets: So, you may see more dispersion within these portfolios. These are weaker, more cyclical, more levered companies. But overall, this is not something that we think at the moment is going to interrupt the credit cycle or the broader markets dynamic.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. That is exactly where we come down to.So, Andrew, let me throw another question back at you. There's a lot of talk of growing M&A, growing LBO activity. And that could potentially lead to some challenges on the credit front. How do you look at it?Andrew Sheets: So, I'd like to actually build upon your answer from private credit, right? Because I think a lot of the questions that we're getting from investors are around this question of how far along in this always, kind of, cyclical process; ebb and flow of lending aggressiveness are we? And, you know, this is a cycle that goes back a hundred years – of lenders becoming more conservative and tighter with lending. And then as times get good, they become somewhat looser. And initially that's fine. And then eventually something, something happens.And so, I think we've seen the development of new markets like private credit that have opened up new lending opportunities and then also new questions. And I think we've also seen this question come up around M&A and corporate activity.And as we start to see headlines of very large leveraged buyouts or LBOs, as we start to see more merger and acquisition – M&A – activity coming back; something we've at Morgan Stanley been believers in. Are we really starting to see the things that we saw in the year 2000, or in the year 2007, when you saw very active capital markets actually coinciding with kind of near the peak of equity markets near the top of major market cycles.And in short, we do not think we're there yet. If we look at the actual volumes that we're seeing, we're actually a little bit below average in terms of corporate activity. There's really been a dearth of corporate activity after COVID. We're still catching up. Secondly, the big transactions that we're seeing are still more conservatively structured, which isn't usually what you see right at the end. And so, I think between these two things with still a lot of supportive factors for more corporate activity, we think we have further to go.Vishy Tirupattur: On that point, Andrew, I think if you look at the LBOs that are happening today versus the LBOs that happened in the 2007 era, the equity contribution is dramatically different. You know, equity to debt, these LBOs that are happening today [are] of a substantially higher amount of equity contribution compared to the LBOs we saw pre-Financial Crisis…Andrew Sheets: That's such a great point. And the listener may not know this, but Vishy and I were working together at Morgan Stanley prior to the Financial Crisis, and we were working in credit research when a lot of these LBOs were happening, and…Vishy Tirupattur: And I used to be tall and good looking.Andrew Sheets: (laughs) And they were just very different. We're still not there. If you go back and pull the numbers, you're looking at transactions still that are far more conservative than what we saw then. So, you know, this activity is cyclical, and I think we do have to watch deregulation, right? You saw a lot of regulations come in after the Financial Crisis that led to more conservative lending. If those regulations get rolled back, we could really move back towards more aggressive lending. But we haven't quite seen that yet.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely not.Andrew Sheets: And Vishy, maybe the third question that comes up a lot. We've covered private credit, which is very topical. We've covered kind of corporate aggressiveness. But maybe the icing on the cake. The biggest question is AI – and is AI spending?And it just feels like every day you come into the office and there's another headline on CNBC or Bloomberg about another mega AI funding deal. And the question is, okay, where's all that money going to come from?And maybe some of it comes from these companies themselves. They're very profitable, but credit might have to fill in some of the gaps. And you and some of our colleagues have done a lot of work on this. Where do you think kind of the lending story and the borrowing story fits into this broader AI theme?Vishy Tirupattur: Our estimate of simply data center related CapEx requirements are close to $3 trillion. You add the power required for the data centers and add another $300-400 billion. So, a lot of this CapEx will come from – roughly about half might come from the operating cash flows of the hyperscalers. But the rest, so [$]1.5 trillion plus, has to come through various channels of credit.So, unsecured corporate credit, we think will play a fairly small role in this. Of that [$]1.5 trillion plus, maybe [$]200 billion to come from unsecured credit issuance by these hyperscalers, and perhaps some of the securitized markets, such as ABS and CMBS that rely on stabilized cash flows may be another 1[$]50 billion. But a different version of private credit, what we will call ABF or asset based finance, will play a very big role. So north of [$]800 billion we think will come from that kind of a private credit version of investment grade, or a private credit markets developing. So, this market is very much in the developmental mode.So, one way or the other, for AI to go from where it is today to substantially improving productivity and the earnings of companies that has to go through CapEx; and that CapEx needs to go through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: And I think that is so fascinating because, right Vishy, so much of the spending is still ahead of us. It hasn't even really started, if you look at the numbers.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. We are in the early stages of this CapEx cycle. We should expect to see a lot more CapEx and that CapEx train has to run through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, there's obviously a lot of history in financial markets of larger CapEx booms, and some of them work out well, and some of them don't. I mean, if you are trying to think about some of the dynamics of this funding for AI and data centers more broadly versus some of these other CapEx cycles that investors might be familiar with. Are there some similar dynamics and some key differences that you try to keep in mind?Vishy Tirupattur: So, in terms of similarities, you know, they're big numbers, whichever way you cut it, these numbers are going to be big dollar numbers.But there are substantial differences between the most recent CapEx boom that we saw towards the end of the late 90s, early 2000s; we saw a massive telecom boom, telecom related CapEx. The big difference is that spending was done by – predominantly by companies that had put debt on their balance sheet. They were already very leveraged. They were just barely investment grade or some below investment grade companies with not much cash on their balance sheet.And you contrast that with today's world, much of this is being done by highly rated companies; the hyperscalers or between, you know, A+ to AAA rated companies, with a lot of cash on their balance sheets and with very little outstanding debt on their part.On top of that, the kind of channels that exist today, you know, data center, ABS and CMBS, asset-based finance, joint venture kind of financing. All of these channels were simply not available back then. And the fact that they all are available today means that this risk of CapEx is actually much more widely distributed.So that makes me feel a lot better about the evolution of this CapEx cycle compared to the most recent one we saw.Andrew Sheets: Private credit, a rise in M&A and a very active funding market for AI. Three big topics that are defining the credit debate today. Vishy, thanks for taking the time to talk.Vishy Tirupattur: Andrew, always fun to hang with youAndrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us review wherever you listen and tell a friend or colleague about us today.

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  The cracks in America's commercial real estate market are widening fast. With office CMBS delinquency rates at record highs and skyscrapers selling for pennies on the dollar, “extend and pretend” can only delay the inevitable. As small and mid-sized banks sit on mountains of toxic paper, new mergers hint at a brewing crisis. Will taxpayers once again be left holding the bag when this balloon finally pops?

In this Topical Tuesday episode, I spoke with Ryan Haase  who has more than 20 years of experience across many different commercial real estate disciplines, and he has originated over $400 million in loans and brokered more than $1.2 billion in debt and equity nationwide. Be sure to tune in if you're interested in learning about: Insights from 20+ years in commercial real estate, covering $1.6B+ in debt and equity transactions How equity players are shifting strategies as valuations drop 30–40% from peak levels and family offices become more active The changing debt market: agency lending tightening standards, rising interest in life companies and CMBS loans, and what sponsors should expect Key advice for owners and operators on structuring the capital stack, mitigating risk, and avoiding costly mistakes To your success, Tyler Lyons Resources mentioned in the episode: Ryan Haase LinkedIn MagnitudeCRE.com IntegRECapital.com Interested in learning how to take your capital raising game to the next level? Meet us at Capital Raiser's Edge. Learn more here: https://raisingcapital.com/cre

In this week's Shop Talk, the guys covers the latest in real estate and markets alongside the start of football season. They discuss jobless claims, REIT performance, and energy prices before shifting into commercial real estate news, including foreclosure auctions in Texas and CMBS delinquency rates hitting new highs.The conversation also touches on motivated sellers, the challenges in today's lending environment, and what the data means for multifamily, office, and industrial assets. Mixed in are college football picks, NFL talk, and the usual Shop Talk banter.

In this Topical Tuesday episode, I spoke with Brian Burke who is the President & CEO of Praxis Capital, Inc. Brian has acquired over 800 million dollars' worth of real estate over a 30-year career including over 4,000 multifamily units and more than 700 single-family homes. He is also the author of “The Hands-Off Investor: An Insider's Guide to Investing in Passive Real Estate Syndications”. Be sure to tune in if you're interested in learning about: The rise in distress across different lending sectors, with CMBS loans seeing notable increases. Regional multifamily opportunities, highlighting short-term potential in the Midwest and long-term value in the Sunbelt. The challenges and evolving strategies in value-add multifamily investing. Insights on vertical integration in property management and its complexities. To your success, Tyler Lyons Resources mentioned in the episode: Brian Burke Website Instagram Book Interested in learning how to take your capital raising game to the next level? Meet us at Capital Raiser's Edge. Learn more here: https://raisingcapital.com/cre

This episode of First Draft Live is presented by Agora.The godfather of the CMBS market issued a warning that commercial real estate is not out of the woods of its downturn, which is a potential problem for the U.S. economy. “The losses in CRE are so big that the rippling effect of those losses to the economy are so big that they could be quite harmful,” Ethan Penner, the founder of Mosaic Real Estate Investors, said on this week's First Draft Live.Roughly $23B of CMBS loans have matured without a resolution, and more than 10% are delinquent or in special servicing. Yet the CMBS lending market is roaring, with $60B in new debt issued in just the first six months of this year.“The truth is there are massive, massive losses in real estate,” said Penner, who is credited with inventing the commercial mortgage-backed security in the early 1990s. “These are breathtaking losses, and I think that clearly the system hasn't recognized that on any level.”Penner also spoke about his candidacy for the California governor's race in 2026, with a platform focused on deregulation and a radical new approach to the homelessness crisis in the state.“I don't know where the toilets are in the state house, that makes me an outsider,” he said. “But I do know that the systems are broken.”Register on Bisnow.com to join the next conversation live, or check back here for the conversation after it airs. 

In this episode of the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast, host Stewart Foley, CFA, is joined by Dmitri Rabin, Rates and Securitized Portfolio Manager at Jennison Associates, for a deep dive into the current state of the investment-grade securitized markets. From the performance dynamics of agency MBS versus corporates to the shifting role of banks and foreign buyers, Dmitri offers a clear-eyed view of spread, convexity, and relative value through the lens of insurance portfolios. The conversation also covers asset-backed securities, subprime auto credit risk, and policy considerations around GSE privatization. Dmitri shares sector-level insights into CLOs, CMBS, and non-agency RMBS, drawing attention to structural risks and supply-demand trends shaping investor positioning. The episode closes with a candid discussion about Jenison's culture and Dmitri's career reflections offering both technical insight and human perspective for insurance investment professionals navigating today's credit markets.

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur brings in Vishwas Patkar, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy, and Carolyn Campbell, Head of Consumer and Commercial ABS Research, to explain our high conviction on the role of credit markets in data center financing. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Vishwas Patkar: I'm Vishwas Patkar, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy. Carolyn Campbell: And I'm Carolyn Campbell, Head of Consumer and Commercial ABS Research. Vishy Tirupattur: Today we'll talk about the feedback – and pushback – we've received on the data center financing note we wrote a few weeks ago. It's Tuesday, August 19th at 10am In New York. In the week since we published a report on bridging the data center financing gap, we were met with a wide range of investors to discuss the key takeaways from our report. We projected that meeting the data center demand requires something like $3 trillion of capital expenditure by 2028. And we projected that about half of this funding will come from hyperscaler cash flows, but the rest financed through different channels of the credit markets. So, Vishwas, some of the skeptics invoke comparisons to prior CapEx cycles, particularly the late 1990s telecom boom that did not quite end well. How would you respond to that skepticism? Vishwas Patkar: The 1990s telecom CapEx cycle certainly came up in a lot of our meetings. It was the last time we arguably saw CapEx cycle of this magnitude. I think the counter to this is that there are some very important differences versus what we saw then versus what we expect. Most importantly, the CapEx cycle back then was largely financed on corporate balance sheets, and we saw pretty significant uptake in debt issuance and leverage. Also, through the 1990s, the names, the companies that were spending were mid- to low-credit quality and not cash rich. That's very different from the hyperscalers that are in the center of the AI spending. And these companies are very cash rich, and their credit ratings range all the way from AAA to high A. So very much at the top end of the spectrum. In addition, we are quite optimistic about AI monetization, both the timeline and the magnitude. Some of this has also already been validated through second quarter earnings. We also think financing will be done through multiple channels going forward and it won't largely flow through to corporate debt. In fact, corporate debt issuance is actually a pretty small number of how we think this [$]3 trillion number will be met. And you know, the private credit piece, that we have talked about a lot in this report; we think it's likely to be skewed towards IG ratings, in many cases backed by contractual cash flows from credit worthy tenants. So, the risk, in some ways, could come from the sub investment grade non-hyperscaler type tenants. And that's an important theme to be watching. But by and large, this cycle is very different in our view from the late 1990s. Vishy Tirupattur: So, Carolyn, another pushback, is that the market will be overbuilt and won't be able to refinance in say, five years… Carolyn Campbell: Yeah, Vishy. This is a really big concern, particularly for securitized credit investors. We're starting to see some of the ABS and CMBS deals look to refinance even this year, and that will pick up as time goes on and these deals hit their five-year maturities. However, the biggest challenge to building new data centers in the U.S. today is access to power. Our equity research colleagues have identified a 45-gigawatt power bottleneck in the U.S., and we think this should keep the market structurally undersupplied of power and slow down the pace of construction, really limiting that overbuild risk. Thus, we expect that the churn and the vacancy rates will actually remain quite low in the medium term. And so, while it's a concern that in the long run that these data centers will decline in value; for now we don't see that to be a primary concern. Vishy Tirupattur: Carolyn, another concern we heard is that the investor demand will not keep pace with the supply, particularly in securitized credit. We also heard about the tenant quality, that tenant quality is a major concern in underwriting these deals. So how would you respond to those two points? Carolyn Campbell: Right. I mean, within ABS and CMBS, we don't think supply is really the limiting factor. We think it will come on the demand side for why we think that this market will grow to about [$]150 billion by 2028.However, our discussions with investors and the data that we've seen suggest that while there are a few big accounts that have been active in the ABS and CMBS space so far, many have yet to allocate meaningfully – preferring perhaps even other esoterics so far. And so, we think that as the supply grows, so too will the number of accounts and the size within which they're participating. That being said, the market is already starting to price in a higher risk of tenant weakness. We started to see deals with a lower proportion of IG or greater exposure to AI names price meaningfully wider than those deals that are almost entirely IG and are more for collocation and enterprise. Ultimately there will be winners and losers in this new AI industry. And so, the diversification across region and across tenant type, exposure to residual cloud and enterprise businesses, and the proportion of IG and non-AI tenants in these deals will be very important as we assess the risks of ABS and CMBS deals. Vishy Tirupattur: Vishwas, any way we cut it, the scale of investment here is pretty large. Would this scale of investment divert capital away from public credit? Vishwas Patkar: I certainly think that's a possibility, and maybe even a risk over time – but probably skewed towards the back half of our forecast horizon, which goes through 2028. I think with the public credit market, the next few quarters' supply should be largely manageable, and demand has been and should stay quite strong. But if you look a few quarters out, insurance demand has been very critical to what's supporting credit markets right now. If interest rates go lower, some of these insurance inflows could slow down. And we've also talked about insurance allocations that are shifting towards private and securitized credit at the expense of corporate credit. So, slowly, you could say supply needs rise. You know, we have about [$]800 billion of financing that needs to be met by private credit while inflow slow down. So, I wouldn't view this as a fundamental risk for public credit, but certainly a reason why credit spreads may not stay as tight as they are, over a period of time. Vishy Tirupattur: So ultimately, our projections are based on the transformative potential for AI and the role of data center financing to enable that. This is a high conviction view. As we have said elsewhere, we are not too wedded to the specific size estimates in the broad constellation of financing channels. The point we want to drive home here is that credit markets will play a major role in enabling AI driven technology fusion. As always, they will be winners and losers, but data center financing as a theme for credit investors is here to stay.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

While near-term interest cuts will not be deep enough to rescue troubled or financially distressed multifamily borrowers, if the Fed signals a shift to a less restrictive/elevated interest rate regime, the growing amount of investors re-entering the multifamily market will very quickly accelerate.Link to sources discussed in this episode:Bureau of Labor Statistics: “July 2025 Consumer Price Index: All Items Steady at 2.7% YoY Increase, Core up from 2.9 to 3.1% YoY Increase” Marcus & Millichap: “The Forces Driving Interest Rates Lower – Will They Last?” - https://www.marcusmillichap.com/research/videos/the-forces-driving-interest-rates-lower-will-they-lastRealtor.com: “Trump Plans IPO for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in Late 2025, Report Claims” - https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/trump-freddie-mac-fannie-mae-ipo/Newmark: “2Q25 State of the U.S. Capital Markets: Sales Activity Increasing, but Loan Maturities Dampen the Excitement” - https://www.nmrk.com/insights/market-report/2q25-state-of-u-s-capital-marketsCRED iQ: “CMBS Distress Rate Adds 32 BPS as the Seesaw Effect Plays Out in CMBS” - https://cred-iq.com/blog/2025/08/07/cmbs-distress-rate-adds-32-bps-as-the-seesaw-effect-plays-out-in-cmbs/Trepp: “Special Servicing Rate Retreats Slightly in July, After Three Consecutive Monthly Increases” - https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/special-servicing-rate-retreats-slightly-in-july-2025RealPage: “U.S. Apartment Construction Activity at a Decade Low” - https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-construction-decade-low/Learn more about Gray Capital's latest multifamily investment opportunity: https://www.graycapitalllc.com/invest-in-flats Download Gray Capital's latest report: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/future Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This podcast does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This podcast is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

Until now, the AI buildout has largely been self-funded. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur and our Head of U.S. Credit Strategy Vishwas Patkar explain the role of credit markets to fund a potential financing gap of $1.5 trillion as spending on data centers and hardware keeps ramping up.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Vishwas Patkar: And I'm Vishwas Patkar, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy at Morgan Stanley.Vishy Tirupattur: Today we want to talk about the opportunities and challenges in the credit markets, in the context of AI and data center financing.It's Wednesday, August 6th at 3pm in New York.Vishy Tirupattur: So, Vishwas spending on AI and data centers is really not new. It's been going on for a while. How has this CapEx been financed so far predominantly? What has changed now? And why do we need greater involvement of credit markets of different stripes?Vishwas Patkar: You're right, Vishy. So, CapEx on AI is certainly not new. So last year the hyperscalers alone spent more than $200 billion on AI related CapEx. What changes from here on, to your question, is the numbers just ramp up sharply. So, if you look at Morgan Stanley's estimates leveraging work done by our colleague Stephen Byrd over the next four years, there's about [$]2.9 trillion of CapEx that needs to be spent across hardware and data center bills.So what changes is, while CapEx so far has been largely self-funded by hyperscalers, we think that will not be the case going forward. So, when we leverage the work that has been done by our equity research colleagues around how much the hyperscalers can spend, we've identified a [$]1.5 trillion financing gap that has to be met by external capital. And we think credit would play a big role in that.Vishy Tirupattur: A financing gap of [$]1.5 trillion. Wow. That's a big number, by any measure. You talked about multiple credit channels that would need to be involved. Can you talk about rough sizing of these channels?Vishwas Patkar: Yep. So, we looked at four broad channels in the report that went out a few weeks ago. So, that [$]1.5 trillion gap breaks out into roughly [$]800 billion across private credit, which we think will be led by asset-based finance. Another [$]200 billion we think will come from Investment Grade rated bond issuance from the large tech names. Another [$]150 billion comes through securitized credit issuance via data center ABS and CMBS. And then finally there is a [$]350 billion plug that we've used. It's a catchall term for all other forms of financing that can cover sovereign spend, PE (private equity), VC among others,Vishy Tirupattur: The technology sector is fairly small within the context of corporate grade markets. You are estimating something like [$]200 billion of financing to come from this channel. Why not more?Vishwas Patkar: So, I think it comes down to really willingness versus ability. And, you know, you raise a good point. Tech names certainly have a lot of capacity to issue debt. And when I look at some of the work done by my colleague Lindsay Tyler in this report, the big four hyperscalers alone could issue over [$]600 billion of incremental debt without hurting their credit ratings.That said, our assumption is that early in the CapEx cycle, companies will be a little hesitant to do significantly debt funded investments as that might be seen as a suboptimal outcome for shareholder returns. And that's why we have reduced the magnitude of how much debt issuance could be vis-a-vis the actual capacity some of these companies have.So, Vishy, I talked about private credit meeting about half of the investment gap that we've identified and within that asset-based finance being a very important channel. So, what is ABF and why do you expect it to play such a big role in financing AI and data centers?Vishy Tirupattur: So, ABF is a very broad term for financing arrangements within the context of private credit. These are financing arrangements that are secured by loans and contractual cash flows such as leases – either with hard assets or without hard assets. So, the underlying concept itself is pretty widely used in securitizations.So, the difference between ABF structures and ABS structures is that the ABF structures are highly bespoke. They enable lots of customization to fit the specific needs of the investors and issuers in terms of risk tolerance, ratings, returns, duration, term, et cetera.So, ABS structures, on the other hand, are pretty standardized structures, you know, driven mainly by rating agencies – often requiring fairly stabilized cash flows with very strict requirements of lessee characteristics and sometimes residual value guarantees, in cases where hard assets are actually part of the collateral package.So, ABF opens up a wider range of possible structures and financing options to include assets that are on different stages of development. Remember, this is a very nascent industry. So, there are data centers that are fully stabilized cash flows, and there are data centers that are in very early stages of building with just land, or land and power access just being established.So, ABF structures can really do it in the form of a single asset or single facility financing or could include a portfolio of multiple assets and facilities that are in different stages of development.So, put all these things together, the nascent nature and the bespoke needs of data center financing call for a solution like ABF.Vishwas Patkar: And then taking a step back. So, as you said, the [$]1.5 trillion financing gap; I mean, that's a big number. That's larger than the size of the high yield market and the leveraged loan market.So, the question is, who are the investors in these structures, and where do you think the money ultimately comes from?Vishy Tirupattur: So, there is really a favorable alignment here of significant and substantial dry powder across different credit markets. And they're looking for attractive yields with appeal to a sticky investor base. This end investor base consists of investors such as insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, endowments, and high net worth retail individuals.Vishy Tirupattur: These are looking for scalable high quality asset exposures that can provide diversification benefits. And what we are talking about in terms of AI and data center financing precisely fall into that kind of investment. And we think this alignment of the need for capital and need for investments, that bridges this gap for [$]1.5 trillion that we're talking about here.So, my final question to you, Vishwas, is this. Where could we be wrong in our assessment of the financing through the various credit market channels?Vishwas Patkar: With the caveat that there are a lot of assumptions and moving parts in the framework that we build, I would flag really two risks. One macro, one micro.The macro one I would talk about in the context of credit market capacity. A lot of the favorable dynamics that you talked about come from where the level of rates are. So, if the economy slows and yields were to drop sharply, then I think the demand that credit markets are seeing could come into question, could see a slowdown over the coming years.The more micro risks, I think really come from how quickly or how slowly AI gets monetized by the big tech names. So, while we are quite optimistic about revenue generation a few years out, if in reality revenues are stronger than expected, then you could see more reliance on the public markets.So, for instance, the 200 billion of corporate bond issuance is likely going to be skewed higher in a more optimistic scenario. On the flip side, if there is mmuch ore uncertainty around the path to revenue generation, and if you see hyperscalers pulling back a bit on CapEx – then at the margin that could push more financing to the way of credit markets. In which case the overall [$]1.5 trillion number could also be biased higher.So those are the two big risks in my view.Vishy Tirupattur: So, Vishwas, any way you look at it, these numbers are big. And whether you are involved in AI or whether you're thinking about credit markets, these are numbers and developments that you cannot ignore.So, Vishwas, thanks so much for joining.Vishwas Patkar: Thank you for having me on Vishy.Vishy Tirupattur: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang interviews John Manning, Executive Managing Director at Marcus & Millichap Capital Corporation, to unpack the current lending environment across commercial real estate. Manning outlines why CMBS lending has surged in 2025, citing borrower acceptance of current interest rates, availability of non-recourse loans, and the appeal of full-term interest-only financing. He compares CMBS to banks, life insurance companies, GSEs, and debt funds, highlighting how each fits into the market and why debt funds are becoming dominant for bridge and construction loans. They also look ahead to the next five years, predicting a recovery in transaction volume and capital flows, especially if proposed legislation allows more retirement money to flow into real estate. John Manning Current role: Executive Managing Director, Marcus & Millichap Capital Corporation Based in: Seattle, Washington Say hi to them at: https://www.marcusmillichap.com/advisors/john-manning Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities. Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Despite elevated distress levels and refinancing risks, investor appetite for CMBS and CRE-CLOs remained strong through the first half of 2025. Andrew Foster, Senior Director of Business Development at KBRA, talks to us about what's happening in the US CRE securitization market, and covers a wide range of topics from CMBS issuance trends to sector performance and the rise of private credit. For lenders and borrowers navigating today's capital markets, Andrew offers practical insights into what's changing, why it matters, and how to prepare for the quarters ahead. Key Moments:02:02 Understanding KBRA and Andrew's role03:45 Current market trends and issuance06:40 Investor appetite and market dynamics08:41 Private capital and non-bank lending10:52 Regulatory and policy changes15:07 Future outlook and optimism in CRE finance17:42 Data centers and AI in CRE financing21:11 The importance of CMBS22:31 Diversity in CRE leadership23:23 Closing remarks and follow-up Resources Mentioned:Andrew Foster: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-foster-cmbs/KBRA: https://www.kbra.com/Real Estate Issues: https://cre.org/real-estate-issues/Email us: altusresearch@altusgroup.comThanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Season 3, Episode 6: Andy Weiner, CEO of RockStep Capital, joins the show to explain why the retail apocalypse was overhyped and how his firm is turning overlooked malls into long-term cash-flow plays. With 50+ shopping centers under management, Andy walks through the real risks, the CMBS fallout, and why Class B markets still offer upside, if you know how to operate. We discuss: – Why “retail is dead” doesn't hold up in the data – The problem with chasing national tenants – How to convert retail boxes into healthcare and entertainment – Why CMBS debt caused lasting damage to retail. TOPICS 00:00 – Cold Open and Retail Misconceptions 02:20 – Andy's Path and RockStep's Strategy 07:00 – The Retail Apocalypse Was Overblown 10:30 – Picking Markets and Making Malls Work 15:45 – Why Big Boxes Can Hurt NOI 20:10 – CMBS Mistakes and Risk Discipline 26:00 – Repurposing Retail Into Healthcare and Entertainment 32:00 – Leasing Timelines and Tenant Credit Today 37:50 – Anchor Replacements and Nontraditional Uses 44:30 – Pricing Gaps, Cap Rates, and Lender Pullback 50:00 – What's Next for Retail in 2025 Shoutout to our sponsor, InvestNext. One platform to raise and manage capital for real estate investment. For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

Host Amar Reganti is joined by head of financial reserves management Alyssa Irving to discuss the state of commercial real estate lending, focusing on CMBS, private credit, and evolving market dynamics.2:00 What is financial reserves management?3:05 Early days of the commercial real estate lending5:30 Similarities and differences with the current CMBS market7:45 Effect of private credit9:50 Valuations and risks of CMBS13:00 How can investors gain exposure?14:30 Esoteric securitizations

Season 3, Episode 4: Rich Hill, Global Head of Real Estate Strategy at Principal Asset Management, joins the show for a candid deep dive into the state of CRE in 2025, from CMBS and construction lending to the hype around AI data centers. With over $100B in real estate under management, Rich explains why office isn't dead, where multifamily pricing is off, and how investors are recalibrating their return expectations. We discuss: – Why debt is suddenly back in favor – What's fueling (and threatening) the data center boom – Where office sentiment is quietly shifting – The truth behind the “housing shortage” narrative Rich brings clarity to the chaos, offering a rare look at how one of the industry's largest real estate platforms is navigating 2025. TOPICS 00:00 – Intro & Birthday Surprise 03:00 – Rich's Career Path + Joining Principal 06:00 – How Principal Allocates Capital in Today's Market 10:30 – Debt, Construction Lending, and CMBS Strategy 15:40 – Data Centers, AI Demand, and Market Caution 22:30 – Office Outlook and Why Originations Are Ticking Up 28:00 – Living Strategies, Seniors Housing, and Multifamily Mispricing 33:50 – US vs. Europe: Capital Sentiment and Cross-Border Strategy 39:20 – Tariffs, Onshoring, and Resilient Cash Flows 43:00 – Return Expectations for CRE in 2025 and Beyond 47:00 – Final Thoughts on Alternatives and Outlook Shoutout to our sponsor, InvestNext. One platform to raise and manage capital for real estate investment. For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

Having navigated headwinds from interest rate hikes and secular shifts in office usage and online shopping in recent years, the US commercial mortgage-backed securities market was seemingly embracing a full resurgence. In 2024, its origination hit a record $104.05 billion, a 165 percent increase from the previous year.   While that momentum continued into the first quarter of 2025, it stumbled when the overall capital markets were taken on a volatile ride after the Trump administration's announcement in April about massive changes in tariffs. As a result, April was a much quieter month for CMBS. Deals got pulled or paused, and there were fewer loans priced.   Borrowers, issuers and bond buyers told PERE Credit that although the activities were slowed down by the unprecedented market volatility, the market stabilized swiftly, with spreads gradually grinding back and new originations returning going into May.  Often viewed as a barometer of the broader commercial real estate market, the sector's swift recovery after market turmoil signals the resilience of the industry in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. In this episode, Zachary Cohn, managing director at Brookfield Asset Management, and James Stouse, senior manager of CMBS credit research at Barings, shared their observations on the CMBS resurgence.  For more insights on this, see PERE Credit‘s June/July cover story.

Commercial real estate lending surged in Q1 2025, with CBRE reporting a 90% year-over-year jump in loan activity and tighter spreads driving new deals. In this episode, we break down what's fueling the rebound—including bank and CMBS growth—and explore improving multifamily underwriting metrics, where investor sentiment for core assets is rising even as value-add assumptions hold steady. Subscribe to the BiggerPockets Channel for the best real estate investing education online! Become a member of the BiggerPockets community of real estate investors - https://www.biggerpockets.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of 9x90™, host Adi Soozin sits down with Grant Horwitz, Managing Partner of the Heritage Real Estate Fund, for a behind-the-scenes look at his journey from Wall Street to building and managing $1.4 billion in real estate assets.Grant shares how his early days at Salomon Brothers on the CMBS trading desk ignited his passion for commercial real estate, the lessons he learned at a multigenerational Florida-based firm, and what drove him to ultimately co-found a fund that's already oversubscribed.Whether you're a seasoned investor or exploring the CRE space for the first time, this conversation offers rare insights into what it takes to build a high-performance real estate fund with institutional-grade discipline and generational vision.Topics include:Grant's path from investment banking to institutional real estateWhat CMBS actually is—and why it mattersThe power of property management and asset-level executionHow the Heritage Fund targets overlooked value in Sunbelt marketsThe role of integrity, vision, and trust in scaling a fund

Today's episode is from Mobile Home Park #65 that originally aired on April 27, 2017. Welcome to the Mobile Home Park Academy podcast. In this episode, Charles and I will discuss mistake number 20 from our popular eBook, “The 21 Biggest Mistakes Investors Make When purchasing their First Mobile Home Park…and how to avoid them.” There are many different ways to obtain financing on a mobile home park. Everything from a master-lease with purchase option all the way to doing sophisticated CMBS loans, we cover it all. As an investor, you need to understand what these options are and when they are appropriate. Certain parks you will run into throughout your search will simply need to be creatively financed based on how they are performing. Being able to recognize this immediately will allow you to become a better negotiator and will keep you from wasting your time with unrealistic sellers. Our goal is to show you how to identify the most appropriate financing options for the park you are looking at. We will also give you strategies to help make the financing process easier and make you more effective at conveying your needs to a seller. In addition to this we will show you the proper ways to structure these creatively financed deals.   Recommended Resources: Accredited Investors, you're invited to Join the Cashflow Investor Club to learn how you can partner with Kevin Bupp on current and upcoming opportunities to create passive cash flow and build wealth. Join the Club! If you're a high net worth investor with capital to deploy in the next 12 months and you want to build passive income and wealth with a trusted partner, go to InvestWithKB.com for opportunities to invest in real estate projects alongside Kevin and his team.  Looking for the ultimate guide to passive investing? Grab a copy of my latest book, The Cash Flow Investor at KevinBupp.com.  Tap into a wealth of free information on Commercial Real Estate Investing by listening to past podcast episodes at KevinBupp.com/Podcast.

The Pulse of the Debt Markets — with Orest Mandzy, CRE Direct Capital market confidence is cautiously returning, but undercurrents of risk remain. In my wide-ranging conversation with Orest Mandzy, Managing Editor of Commercial Real Estate Direct, we discuss what recent CMBS issuance tells us about liquidity, why delinquency headlines may be misleading, and how sponsors can position themselves amid policy shocks and structural market shifts.   Liquidity Is Back — But Driven by Giants CMBS issuance jumped 110% in Q1 2025, totaling nearly $37 billion. While that headline suggests a resurgence of confidence, Orest clarifies that most of that growth comes from SASB (Single Asset, Single Borrower) deals – large trophy assets being financed and securitized by institutional players. These are not indicative of broad-based confidence in middle-market real estate.   To gauge true liquidity, he says, focus on conduit deals – pools of smaller $10M–$25M loans originated by banks and institutional lenders and repackaged into +/- $1B bond offerings. Robust conduit activity reflects a healthier market for everyday sponsors.   “If you've got solid conduit issuance,” says Orest, “that tells you there's liquidity in the market – not just for trophy deals.”   Rising Delinquencies: Real or a Red Herring? Recent headlines warned that CMBS delinquency rates exceeded 7%, the highest since 2021. But Orest has looked deeper into the data and sees it is far from being systemic. A handful of large, troubled multifamily loans, such as the $1.5B Park Merced in San Francisco and a floating-rate New York portfolio, together make up nearly 60% of those delinquencies. The common thread? These loans were made pre-COVID or in 2021 with floating-rate debt and now can't refinance in today's rate environment. But they're outliers, not bellwethers. Fannie and Freddie multifamily delinquencies remain under 1%, and even in CMBS, the average LTVs have been conservative.   “Multifamily looks worse than it is. Strip out the outliers and the market's still performing.”   CLOs, Banks, and the Competitive Landscape CMBS is just one lane in the broader lending freeway. Orest distinguishes it from CLOs, which are floating-rate, short-term loans used by debt funds for leverage, and from agencies like Fannie and Freddie, which underwrite more conservatively.   In 2024: Agencies originated ~$60B each CMBS did ~$40B CLOs only ~$8B – down sharply from peak years Debt funds relying on CLOs are now facing stiff competition from banks, which are back in the market after a cautious 2023. With banks accounting for 40% of CRE loan volume annually, this shift matters.   For sponsors, it means a broader set of options but also a new underwriting reality. Orest notes that while leverage is available, it's on tighter terms: LTVs in the low 60s and debt service coverage ratios near 2.0x are now standard for institutional-quality debt.   The Tariff Shock and Bond Market Jitters One of the most important takeaways: macro events like tariffs are now exerting real-time pressure on the capital stack.   In early April, CMBS bond spreads spiked from 80bps to 108bps over Treasuries as the market braced for a new round of tariffs. That spread spike pushed borrowing costs up and froze CMBS issuance for nearly 10 days – a signal of how fragile the system remains to policy volatility.  Although bond spreads have since tightened, Orest warns that risk repricing is now a function of policy headlines, not just economic fundamentals.   “Uncertainty is risk. And when investors sense more of it, they demand more yield. That makes loans more expensive and deal volume drops.”   Positive Leverage or No Leverage: Sponsor Guidance Asked what CRE sponsors and investors should be doing in the next 3–12 months, Orest's answer is clear: Seek positive leverage from Day One – don't rely on NOI lifts growth to bail you out. Consider no leverage at all if you're sitting on cash and don't want to risk default. Underwrite conservatively and turn over every rock. The deal you don't do may save you. “If you buy with positive leverage, great. If not, maybe don't borrow at all.”   Special Servicing > Delinquencies For investors and borrowers watching for cracks in the market, Orest recommends a lesser-known but more reliable signal: the special servicing rate in CMBS. Loans enter special servicing before they go delinquent, usually triggered by pending lease expirations, tenant loss, or anticipated refinance trouble. This metric has been rising and, unlike delinquencies, tends to stay elevated longer. Sponsors should watch this closely.   Local Policy Risk: The Property Tax Squeeze Orest flags an emerging risk with local governments under fiscal stress. Cities like San Francisco, where office values have cratered, still rely on CRE for a large share of tax revenue. If values fall but municipalities resist cutting spending, expect tax rates to rise, eroding asset value further.   “Where do cities go when they need money? To the deep pockets. And that's commercial real estate.”   Industrial and Insurance: Still in the Crosshairs While multifamily has absorbed most of the press, Orest highlights risk building in other sectors: Industrial may face headwinds from tariffs disrupting trade flows and warehouse demand. Insurance costs, especially in hurricane-prone areas, continue to rise, sometimes outpacing rent growth. In one example, he cited an apartment property in Tampa where gross revenue rose 50% in five years, but expenses outpaced it, limiting refinance options.   Geopolitics, De-Dollarization, and Exorbitant Privilege One of my concerns is about broader macro risks – de-dollarization, loss of U.S. financial credibility, and capital flight from Treasuries. Orest acknowledged these as tail risks but noted they're not front of mind for most market participants… yet.   Still, if foreign buyers ever pull back on U.S. Treasuries, that could cause a spike in long-term rates, forcing CRE valuations down and capital costs up. It's not imminent, but it's worth tracking.   “If China and Japan stop buying Treasuries, we've got a real problem. All bets are off.”   Final Thought The key insight from this episode: the market is functioning but only just. Liquidity is back, but it's conditional. Optimism exists, but it's fragile. And sponsors must walk a tightrope between opportunity and overextension.   Orest's advice? Borrow smart. Underwrite for today's risks – not yesterday's assumptions. And remember: your best defense in uncertain times is positive leverage and deep diligence.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

What the Debt Markets Are Telling Us — and Why Sponsors Should Listen Insights from Lisa Pendergast, Executive Director, CREFC   In today's capital markets, where debt is more expensive, less available, and slower to move, understanding how credit flows work has become just as important as understanding your deal. That's why I sat down with Lisa Pendergast, Executive Director of the Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) – a central figure in the $5 trillion CRE debt markets – to ask what the institutions upstream are seeing, and what that means for those of us operating on the front lines of equity, operations, and acquisitions.   A Market in Holding Pattern Lisa noted that while Q4 2024 sentiment among debt market participants had turned unexpectedly upbeat, that optimism collapsed in Q1 2025. The cause? Policy uncertainty, rate volatility, and a reemergence of geopolitical and trade risks, most notably the return of tariffs under the Trump administration.   The result is hesitation. From the largest bond desks to the average sponsor refinancing a stabilized deal, participants are stuck in wait-and-see mode. "When there's uncertainty," Lisa explained, "things just stop."   The Math Has Changed Lisa pointed to a roughly 300-400 basis point gap between legacy loan coupons and current market rates. Even where property fundamentals are stable, that rate delta is making refinancings difficult, especially when higher cap rates have also eroded asset valuations. The implication: more equity must be written into every deal, or the loan won't pencil.   This is the backdrop to rising CMBS delinquencies, particularly in office and, increasingly, multifamily markets where excess supply and rent softening have converged. Lenders aren't panicking, but they are requiring more diligence, more equity, and more confidence in borrowers.   Why Sponsors Should Watch the CMBS Market For sponsors who don't interact directly with capital markets, Lisa offered a critical point: trends in CMBS spreads and issuance are leading indicators. When investors demand higher spreads (i.e., more compensation for risk), lenders raise rates, reduce proceeds, or pull back altogether. She explained the distinction between conduit deals (pools of smaller loans) and SASB structures (large, single-sponsor or single-asset bonds). The conduit market, a lifeline for mid-sized deals, has slowed dramatically. That signals tightening liquidity for smaller sponsors or niche asset classes. Meanwhile, large SASB deals continue but only with strong assets, strong borrowers, and deep-pocketed equity partners.   The Regulatory Horizon Lisa also addressed deregulation under Trump 2.0. While she hasn't seen core rules like Dodd-Frank or the Volcker Rule reversed outright, she's watching how new leadership at key agencies may soften enforcement.   Dodd-Frank was enacted after the 2008 financial crisis to rein in excessive risk-taking by lenders and increase transparency in financial markets. The Volcker Rule, a key provision, restricts banks from making speculative bets with their own capital, especially in risky vehicles like real estate-backed securities.   For sponsors, the concern isn't just about policy in Washington, it's about what happens to lending standards and capital stability when those policies shift. Lisa's concern is practical: regulatory whiplash, rules swinging left, then right, then back again, as we've seen with tariffs, undermines confidence and can freeze the flow of capital.   When lenders aren't sure what rules they'll be operating under next quarter, they hesitate and that caution trickles down to your loan terms. Sponsors should pay attention here. When policy becomes unpredictable, capital becomes cautious and that shows up in the terms you're offered, or whether your deal gets financed at all.   Final Takeaway: The Debt Market Has Grown Up Lisa struck a cautiously optimistic tone. Compared to the run-up to the 2008 crash, today's market is more disciplined. Underwriting remains sound, even in a difficult environment. But that doesn't mean lenders will stretch.   If you're a sponsor today, her message is clear: capital is out there—but it's selective, it's expensive, and it's scrutinizing every deal. You need to understand the market forces upstream to be able to compete downstream.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Mag Mile Capital Inc. (OTCQB: MMCP) is a boutique, full-service commercial real estate mortgage banking firm headquartered in Chicago, with additional offices in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Texas, and Nevada. Rushi Sha, CEO, Executive Director, and Company Secretary of Mag Mile Capital, joins us today to discuss the firm's transition from a real estate investment banking company to a tech-driven platform. Mag Mile specializes in CMBS loans and the company is focused on growth through geographic expansion, strategic acquisitions, and its AI-powered platform, CapLogic, aimed at bringing greater efficiency to commercial real estate finance.

This episode dives into the nuances, negotiation process, and key strategies to navigate distressed properties with Shlomo Chopp, Managing Partner at Case.The Crexi Podcast explores various aspects of the commercial real estate industry in conversation with top CRE professionals. In each episode, we feature different guests to tap into their wealth of CRE expertise and explore the latest trends and updates from the world of commercial real estate. In this episode of the Crexi Podcast, host Shanti Ryle sits down with Shlomo to explore the intricacies of commercial real estate investment financing. With over 20 years of experience, Shlomo shares his unique journey from PropTech to distressed real estate, discussing the strategic methodologies that have propelled his career. The conversation delves deep into the essentials of debt restructuring, the importance of preparation and relationships, and the nuances of navigating distressed assets in today's market. Gain valuable insights into creative problem-solving, effective negotiation techniques, and market trends that distinguish this market cycle from the Great Financial Crisis. Whether you're a newcomer or an industry leader, this episode offers a wealth of knowledge on achieving success in the nuanced world of CRE.Introduction to The Crexi PodcastMeet Shlomo Chopp: A Distressed Real Estate ExpertShlomo's Career Path and Early InfluencesThe Importance of Relationships in Real EstateNavigating Distressed AssetsCurrent Market Trends and ComparisonsMarket Negativity and Bank FailuresGovernment Intervention and Interest RatesReal Estate Market DynamicsInvestment Perspectives and Market PositivityRestructuring and Distressed AssetsActive Ownership and Market RealitiesBroker Insights and Passive Income MythsLender-Borrower DynamicsCreative Solutions in RestructuringRapid Fire Questions and Industry InsightsFinal Thoughts and Contact Information About Shlomo Chopp:Shlomo Chopp is the Managing Partner of Case, bringing over 20 years of commercial real estate investment and advisory experience. He specializes in crafting solutions for distressed property and debt situations while developing innovative strategies for repositioning assets and asset classes.The son of a computer programmer, Shlomo's foray into commercial real estate began in 2003 when he sold PropTech software to real estate finance brokerages. Since then, he has invested in, structured, or advised on nearly $5 billion in commercial real estate.In 2010, Shlomo founded Case Property Services (CPS) to help borrowers and guarantors navigate the challenges of distressed real estate loans in today's complex and interconnected capital markets. With expertise at the highest levels of structured finance and CMBS, his approach combines strategic analysis, planning, and diligence to create leverage for his clients and foster proactive communication between borrowers and lenders.On the investment side, Shlomo is part of a family office that owns and operates ±70 properties across the US, and multiple asset classes. Focused on value-add opportunities, he leverages his distressed debt expertise to invest across all levels of the capital stack, including bonds, loans, properties, and other derivative interests in commercial real estate.Beyond distressed debt, Shlomo has secured four commercial real estate-related patents in the areas of shopping centers, e-commerce, and fulfillment. His invention, retailOS™, is a platform designed to enhance shopping center value and improve retail operations profitability. He has If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to our newsletter and enjoy the next podcast delivered straight to your inbox. For show notes, past guests, and more CRE content, please check out Crexi's blog. Ready to find your next CRE property? Visit Crexi and immediately browse 500,000+ available commercial properties for sale and lease. Follow Crexi:https://www.crexi.com/​ https://www.crexi.com/instagram​ https://www.crexi.com/facebook​ https://www.crexi.com/twitter​ https://www.crexi.com/linkedin​ https://www.youtube.com/crexi

In this episode of the Debtwired! podcast, Mike Nowakowski, Head of Structured Products at Conning, joins Melina Chalkia, Debtwire's primary market reporter for North America, to break down why esoteric ABS has become one of the most compelling areas of the credit market for 2025. Nowakowski leads the structured products team at $ 170bn global asset manager Conning, which invests across ABS, CMBS, RMBS and other securitized markets. Esoteric ABS is gaining traction, now making up more than 30% of total ABS issuance, with outstanding supply at nearly $900bn. In this conversation, Nowakowski explains the advantages of investing in esoteric assets, like shipping containers, data centers and music royalties, compared to traditional fixed-income investments. He shares insights on data center ABS deals, the increasing crossover between ABS and CMBS, how institutional investors are increasingly allocating capital to esoteric ABS, and the rapidly evolving solar ABS market.

Fred Perreten, Managing Director of CMBS at KBRA, joins host Patrick Dolan to discuss the current landscape of the data center securitization market. We examine the market's performance in 2024, discuss potential shifts in 2025 under the Trump Administration, and break down the ratings criteria that play a role in these unique transactions.Listen and subscribe to the Securitization Insight podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast app.

Debt-Driven Reality: Understanding CRE's Structural Fragility Cracks Beneath the Surface In this episode of The Real Estate Market Watch, I sit down with Jon Winick, CEO of Clark Street Capital, to explore the increasingly fragile foundation of the commercial real estate (CRE) market. Winick draws on decades of experience in loan portfolio sales, banking, CMBS investing, and student housing to deliver a sobering, detail-rich assessment of what's coming next — and what's already hiding in plain sight.   The Fed, Interest Rates, and the “Nuclear Option” Trump vs. Powell: Market Implications Winick opens with a sharp critique of political interference in Federal Reserve policy. While the idea of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell may feel remote, he warns that even sustained political pressure has consequences. Removing Powell — the so-called "nuclear option" — would spark chaos in capital markets, undermining global confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets. “You cannot find an industry in which debt matters more than commercial real estate,” Winick says. A destabilized bond market affects CRE indirectly but profoundly by tightening liquidity and depressing investor confidence.   CRE's Dependency on Debt: Liquidity as Lifeblood Why CRE Suffers When Capital Tightens With rates elevated and uncertainty rising, Winick highlights the outsized role debt plays in CRE. Unlike most industries, capital structure is everything in real estate. Higher interest rates are more than a cost issue—they erode the viability of deals outright. His analogy lands hard: “Low rates are like tequila on a first date. High rates are like a glass of warm milk.”   Banking Behavior: The Art of Delay Defaults, Loan Maturities, and Creative Accounting Despite rising delinquencies in CMBS, bank-reported CRE loan delinquencies remain surprisingly low. Why? Banks, Winick argues, are benefiting from regulatory changes that let them defer the recognition of problem loans. “The delinquencies that you're seeing in CMBS and bank loans will inevitably converge. Banks have been able to use some new rules to hide problem loans. And eventually that [runway] runs out.” he says. Bank defaults may not be catastrophic, but their opacity clouds the picture for investors trying to assess real risk.   Creative Destruction Denied Why Bailouts Delay the Inevitable Winick argues the post-COVID economy is still “wrapped up by actual or indirect fraud.” From subsidized mortgages to suspended student loan collections, unsustainable federal programs have kept weak assets and businesses afloat. He makes a provocative case for embracing creative destruction. “We've basically decided as a society that we won't let businesses fail… but that's ultimately bad economics.”   Policy, Regulation, and the Supply-Demand Trap Deregulation and its Unintended Consequences Dodd-Frank's unintended effect was to choke off consumer credit, particularly in regions with few lenders. Winick compares Puerto Rico, with just three banks, to Iowa, with the same size population as Puerto Rico, with 246. The result? Higher interest rates, limited options, and an underfinanced economy. He calls for “smart, effective regulation,” warning that over-regulation concentrates power while under-regulation invites asset bubbles.   The Signals to Watch Now What CRE Investors Should Be Monitoring Winick identifies several canaries in the coal mine for CRE investors: Widening CMBS credit spreads: These are leading indicators of borrowing cost pressures. Corporate bankruptcies and retail closures: Especially among large tenants like Walgreens or government departments exiting leases. Shifts in political winds: Regulatory reversals could radically alter CRE's operating environment. Strategy: What Should CRE Investors Be Doing? Be Patient, but Be Realistic For investors sitting on cash, Winick's advice is pragmatic: “Be patient… [but] waiting for a home run often means you miss out on a lot of great opportunities.” He urges caution and downside awareness in every negotiation, pointing out that real movement in the market won't occur until lenders are forced to act or borrowers are out of options.   Final Thought: The Bond Vigilantes Will Win A System Bound by Market Forces Winick closes with a sharp reminder that the bond market, not politicians, sets the true limits: “The bond vigilantes always get their way.” In a world dependent on debt, real estate investors should watch not just interest rates — but who controls the levers behind them.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get:   Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Can you buy a property with 10-15% down payment? What are SBA loans and why do they matter? Which asset classes qualify for an SBA loan? Can you get working capital on your loan? Is there a prepayment penalty? Can an SBA loan be fixed or variable? Can an SBA loan be assumable? Can the SBA be a second loan on a property? Anne Mino, Sr Loan Officer at LiveOak Bank shares her insights.You can read the entire interview here: https://tinyurl.com/bdkvxrnrWhat are SBA loans, and why do they matter?The Small Business Administration (which is what SBA stands for) is a loan program that was established back in the early 1950s. The entire purpose of it is to help entrepreneurs access capital financing that they may not otherwise be able to qualify for through traditional channels, so through conventional lending and the primary benefits are lower down payments. Think of a 10% down payment, instead of 30 to 40%, which you might see in a conventional loan, and longer repayment terms. For anything that has commercial real estate involved, it is automatically on a 25-year term with competitive interest rates, and then it's easier to qualify. You don't have to have experience in your subject field. In other words, in the self-storage world, if you don't own self-storage. That's perfectly okay, and that's why the SBA enables us to do these loans to anybody who needs them.It's a little more painful to get, but nothing compared to CMBS loans, which everybody hates, but the numbers do have to work out the debt service. Please elaborate on the debt service and what the requirements are.These loans are considered cash-flow-based loans. In other words, we want to see that the cash flow of the business can support the debt. For example, if you're just looking for a land loan, and there is no business attached to it, that's not something that we could do under this loan program. But as long as there's a business attached to it, we're looking at the debt service coverage of that business to pay back the debt. In an ideal world for self-storage, we want to see that in year one, the business can reach 1.15 debt service coverage, which essentially means the business is making its loan payment and then about a 15% profit. And then we want to see it steadily go up from there, and we're very lucky in the regard that we can use a borrower's projections that they've put together to tell us what they're going to do with that business.Can SBA do loans for any asset class in real estate?Yes, as long as it's a cash-flowing business and it must be owner-occupied, not retail, office, they're non-applicable. If you're a veterinarian, let's say you buy a strip center, and it owns some other real estate, it is okay as long as 51% of that strip center is going to be used by your veterinary practice. Same thing with storage. Let's say you had a storage facility, and there was another retail component on the property. That's fine, and still SBA eligible, as long as the storage makes up more than 51% of the total square footage.For offices, it's the same thing. I would have to occupy office minimum of 51% of my office building. And for multi-family, which is similar to self-storage because we are the operators, would we automatically qualify?Multi-family does not, as they don't touch anything with residential real estate at all, even though multi-family is considered commercial.Anne Minoanne.mino@liveoak.bank

Alan Todd, CFA, Head of US Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) Research at BofA Securities, joins host Patrick Dolan to discuss the trends and expectations for the CMBS market in 2025. Alan shares his outlook on CMBS delinquency rates, special servicing rates, investor interest in alternatives such as data centers, single family rentals and self-storage and CRE CLO issuance as compared to 2024 levels. We also cover the office market dynamics in major cities, including quality shifts, supply shortages and tenant demand for second-tier office space as well as the outlook for the multifamily sector.

Key Takeaways:Industrial real estate remains resilient, with low vacancy rates, but older buildings may need upgrades to meet modern standards.The multifamily market is bifurcating, with Class A urban properties seeing more challenges, while Class B and workforce housing have stronger fundamentals in certain areas.The office market has structurally changed, with high vacancy rates, but there are pockets of resilience in medical office, Class A trophy spaces, and suburban mixed-use developments.In retail, grocery-anchored centers and experiential retail are performing well, while malls and big box retail continue to struggle, especially in weaker markets.Potential opportunities exist in distressed office, hospitality with expiring CMBS loans, retail repositioning, and affordable office/multifamily in good secondary markets, but caution is advised to avoid overpaying.

Welcome to the first Money Moves episode of 2025! In this action-packed episode, we dive deep into:

Over his 36-year career, Simon Ziff, President of Ackman-Ziff, has overseen more than $100 billion in transactions and witnessed the dramatic evolution of the real estate industry brought about by the Savings and Loan Crisis. Simon shares his journey from joining Ackman Brothers in the 1980s to seizing the opportunities created by the rise of CMBS and private equity in the 1990s. From personal anecdotes to expert insights, this episode is packed with an insider's experience navigating market cycles. — Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.  Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com.  About Fundrise  With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button.  Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund's offering document(s).  Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.

Original Release Date November 19, 2024: On the second part of a two-part roundtable, our panel gives its 2025 preview for the housing and mortgage landscape, the US Treasury yield curve and currency markets.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: 2024 was a year of transition for economies and global markets. Central banks began easing interest rates, U.S. elections signaled significant policy change, and Generative AI made a quantum leap in adoption and development.Thank you for listening throughout 2024, as we navigated the issues and events that shaped financial markets, and society. We hope you'll join us next year as we continue to bring you the most up to date information on the financial world. This week, please enjoy some encores of episodes over the last few months and we'll be back with all new episodes in January. From all of us on Thoughts on the Market, Happy Holidays, and a very Happy New Year. Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. This is part two of our special roundtable discussion on what's ahead for the global economy and markets in 2025.Today we will cover what is ahead for government bonds, currencies, and housing. I'm joined by Matt Hornbach, our Chief Macro Strategist; James Lord, Global Head of Currency and Emerging Market Strategy; Jay Bacow, our co-head of Securitized Product Strategy; and Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Product Strategy.It's Tuesday, November 19th, at 10am in New York.Matt, I'd like to go to you first. 2024 was a fascinating year for government bond yields globally. We started with a deeply inverted US yield curve at the beginning of the year, and we are ending the year with a much steeper curve – with much of that inversion gone. We have seen both meaningful sell offs and rallies over the course of the year as markets negotiated hard landing, soft landing, and no landing scenarios.With the election behind us and a significant change of policy ahead of us, how do you see the outlook for global government bond yields in 2025?Matt Hornbach: With the US election outcome known, global rate markets can march to the beat of its consequences. Central banks around the world continue to lower policy rates in our economist baseline projection, with much lower policy rates taking hold in their hard landing scenario versus higher rates in their scenarios for re-acceleration.This skew towards more dovish outcomes alongside the baseline for lower policy rates than captured in current market prices ultimately leads to lower government bond yields and steeper yield curves across most of the G10 through next year. Summarizing the regions, we expect treasury yields to move lower over the forecast horizon, helped by 75 [basis points] worth of Fed rate cuts, more than markets currently price.We forecast 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3 and 3.75 per cent by the middle of next year and ending the year just above 3.5 per cent.Our economists are forecasting a pause in the easing cycle in the second half of the year from the Fed. That would leave the Fed funds rate still above the median longer run dot.The rationale for the pause involves Fed uncertainty over the ultimate effects of tariffs and immigration reform on growth and inflation.We also see the treasury curve bull steepening throughout the forecast horizon with most of the steepening in the first half of the year, when most of the fall in yields occur.Finally, on break even inflation rates, we see five- and 10-year break evens tightening slightly by the middle of 2025 as inflation risks cool. However, as the Trump administration starts implementing tariffs, break evens widen in our forecast with the five- and 10-year maturities reaching 2.55 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively by the end of next year.As such, we think real yields will lead the bulk of the decline in nominal yields in our forecasting with the 10-year real yield around 1.45 per cent by the middle of next year; and ending the year at 1.15 per cent.Vishy Tirupattur: That's very helpful, Matt. James, clearly the incoming administration has policy choices, and their sequencing and severity will have major implications for the strength of the dollar that has rallied substantially in the last few months. Against this backdrop, how do you assess 2025 to be? What differences do you expect to see between DM and EM currency markets?James Lord: The incoming administration's proposed policies could have far-reaching impacts on currency markets, some of which are already being reflected in the price of the dollar today. We had argued ahead of the election that a Republican sweep was probably the most bullish dollar outcome, and we are now seeing that being reflected.We do think the dollar rally continues for a little bit longer as markets price in a higher likelihood of tariffs being implemented against trading partners and there being a risk of additional deficit expansion in 2025. However, we don't really see that dollar strength persisting for long throughout 2025.So, I think that is – compared to the current debate, compared to the current market pricing – a negative dollar catalyst that should get priced into markets.And to your question, Vishy, that there will be differences with EM and also within EM as well. Probably the most notable one is the renminbi. We have the renminbi as the weakest currency within all of our forecasts for 2025, really reflecting the impact of tariffs.We expect tariffs against China to be more consequential than against other countries, thus requiring a bigger adjustment on the FX side. We see dollar China, or dollar renminbi ending next year at 7.6. So that represents a very sharp divergence versus dollar yen and the broader DXY moves – and is a consequence of tariffs.And that does imply that the Fed's broad dollar index only has a pretty modest decline next year, despite the bigger move in the DXY. The rest of Asia will likely follow dollar China more closely than dollar yen, in our view, causing AXJ currencies to generally underperform; versus CMEA and Latin America, which on the whole do a bit better.Vishy Tirupattur: Jay, in contrast to corporate credit, mortgage spreads are at or about their long-term average levels. How do you expect 2025 to pan out for mortgages? What are the key drivers of your expectations, and which potential policy changes you are most focused on?Jay Bacow: As you point out, mortgage spreads do look wide to corporate spreads, but there are good reasons for that. We all know that the Fed is reducing their holdings of mortgages, and they're the largest holder of mortgages in the world.We don't expect Fed balance sheet reduction of mortgages to change, even if they do NQT, as is our forecast in the first quarter of 2025. When they NQT, we expect mortgage runoff to continue to go into treasuries. What we do expect to change next year is that bank demand function will shift. We are working under the assumption that the Basel III endgame either stalls under the next administration or gets released in a way that is capital neutral. And that's going to free up excess capital for banks and reduce regulatory uncertainty for them in how they deploy the cash in their portfolios.The one thing that we've been waiting for is this clarity around regulations. When that changes, we think that's going to be a positive, but it's not just banks returning to the market.We think that there's going to be tailwinds from overseas investors that are going to be hedging out their FX risks as the Fed cuts rates, and the Bank of Japan hikes, so we expect more demand from Japanese life insurance companies.A steeper yield curve is going to be good for REIT demand. And these buyers, banks, overseas REITs, they typically buy CUSIPs, and that's going to help not just from a demand side, but it's going to help funding on mortgages improve as well. And all of those things are going to take mortgage spreads tighter, and that's why we are bullish.I also want to mention agency CMBS for a moment. The technical pressure there is even better than in single family mortgages. The supply story is still constrained, but there is no Fed QT in multifamily. And then also the capital that's going to be available for banks from the deregulation will allow them – in combination with the portfolio layer hedging – to add agency CMBS in a way that they haven't really been adding in the last few years. So that could take spreads tighter as well.Now, Vishy, you also mentioned policy changes. We think discussions around GSE reform are likely to become more prevalent under the new administration.And we think that given that improved capitalization, depending on the path of their earnings and any plans to raise capital, we could see an attempt to exit conservatorship during this administration.But we will simply state our view that any plan that results in a meaningful change to the capital treatment – or credit risk – to the investors of conventional mortgages is going to be too destabilizing for the housing finance markets to implement. And so, we don't think that path could go forward.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Jay. Jim, it was a challenging year for the housing market with historically high levels of unaffordability and continued headwinds of limited supply. How do you see 2025 to be for the US housing market? And going beyond housing, what is your outlook for the opportunity set in securitized credit for 2025?James Egan: For the housing market, the 2025 narrative is going to be one about absolute level versus the direction and rate of change. For instance, Vishy, you mentioned affordability. Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of September, but it's also true that they're down roughly a hundred basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023 and we're forecasting pretty healthy decreases in the 10-year Treasury throughout 2025. So, we expect affordability to improve over the coming year. Supply? It remains near historic lows, but it's been increasing year to date.So similar to the affordability narrative, it's more challenged than it's been in decades; but it's also less challenged than it was a year ago.So, what does all this mean for the housing market as we look through 2025? Despite the improvements in affordability, sales volumes have been pretty stagnant this year. Total volumes – so existing plus new volumes – are actually down about 3 per cent year to date. And look, that isn't unusual. It typically takes about a year for sales volumes to pick up when you see this kind of significant affordability improvement that we've witnessed over the past year, even with the recent backup in mortgage rates.And that means we think we're kind of entering that sweet spot for increased sales now. We've seen purchase applications turn positive year over year. We've seen pending home sales turn positive year over year. That's the first time both of those things have happened since 2021. But when we think about how much sales 2025, we think it's going to be a little bit more curtailed. There are a whole host of reasons for that – but one of them the lock in effect has been a very popular talking point in the housing market this year. If we look at just the difference between the effective mortgage rate on the outstanding universe and where you can take out a mortgage rate today, the universe is still over 200 basis points out of the money.To the upside, you're not going to get 10 per cent growth there, but you're going to get more than 5 per cent growth in new home sales. And what I really want to emphasize here is – yes, mortgage rates have increased recently. We expect them to come down in 2025; but even if they don't, we don't think there's a lot of room for downside to existing home sales from here.There's some level of housing activity that has to happen, regardless of where mortgage rates or affordability are. We think we're there. Turnover measured as the number of transactions – existing transactions – as a share of the outstanding housing market is lower now than it was during the great financial crisis. It's as low as it's been in a little bit over 40 years. We just don't think it can fall that much further from here.But as we go through 2025, we do think it dips negative. We have a negative 2 per cent HPA call next year, not significantly down. We don't think there's a lot of room to the downside given the healthy foundation, the low supply, the strong credit standards in the housing market. But there is a little bit of negativity next year before home prices reaccelerate.This leaves us generically constructive on securitized products across the board. Given how much of the capital structure has flattened this year, we think CLO AAAs actually offer the best value amongst the debt tranches there. We think non-QM triple AAAs and agency MBS is going to tighten. They look cheap to IG corporates. Consumer ABS, we also think still looks pretty cheap to IG corporates. Even in the CMBS pace, we think there's opportunities. CMBS has really outperformed this year as rates have come down. Now our bull bear spread differentials are much wider in CMBS than they are elsewhere, but in our base case, conduit BBB minuses still offer attractive value.That being said, if we're going to go down the capital structure, our favorite expression in the securitized credit space is US CLO equity.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Jay and Jim, and also Matt and James.We'll close it out here. As a reminder, if you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

You'll learn about the intricacies of real estate financing in this episode with Scott Singer, Co-Head of the Debt and Equity Group at Avison Young. Scott discusses different types of lenders, including banks, insurance companies, CMBS lenders, and private credit providers, along with their roles in today's market.   You'll gain insight into the evolution of the lending landscape, including how new players and changing dynamics create opportunities for borrowers. Scott covers key topics such as understanding loan-to-value ratios, debt service coverage, recourse vs. non-recourse loans, and prepayment penalties. With examples ranging from relationship lending to bridge financing, this conversation offers actionable advice for investors at every stage.     You can connect with me at: My website: JamesNelson.com LinkedIn: JamesNelsonNYC Instagram: JamesNelsonNYC Twitter: JamesNelsonNYC My Forbes.com articles: Forbes.com/sites/jamesnelson

Episode Title: Post-Thanksgiving: Politics, Markets, and Real Estate Opportunities Episode Summary: In this week's episode of Money Moves, the team dives into a range of topics, from post-election developments and market updates to intriguing insights on real estate and crypto. After a Thanksgiving recap, the hosts discuss President Biden's controversial pardon of Hunter Biden and its implications, Trump's policy stances, and the outlook for 2025's financial markets. They also explore the surge in Americans looking to move abroad, analyze commercial real estate challenges, and share opportunities in volatile markets. Tune in for a mix of political analysis, market strategies, and actionable investment insights. Time-Stamped Highlights: [00:00] – Thanksgiving Recap Hosts share their holiday highlights, wine selections, and family moments. Lighthearted conversation on Thanksgiving debates at the dinner table. [03:00] – Biden's Pardon of Hunter Biden President Biden's decade-long pardon of Hunter Biden sparks controversy. Discussion on hypocrisy claims and political fallout. Potential implications for Trump's future pardons and legal moves. [09:30] – Trump's Policy Moves and Market Impact Updates on Trump's cabinet picks and global trade stances. Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on BRICS countries. Analysis of how Trump's “Art of the Deal” negotiation style influences markets. [15:00] – Political Unity and Key Collaborations Bernie Sanders collaborates with Trump's team on capping credit card interest rates and Pentagon audits. Potential for bipartisan cooperation in the coming administration. [20:00] – Market and Economic Updates Insights on inflation data, unemployment expectations, and non-farm payroll reports. Expectations for Fed's December rate cuts and their market implications. Hosts forecast a 10-12% growth in the S&P 500 for 2025. [27:00] – Real Estate Insights Residential real estate: Pending home sales climb 2% in October with notable growth in the West. Commercial real estate: Office CMBS delinquency rates hit a 10-year high, reflecting market pressures. Opportunities in distressed commercial assets and repurposing strategies for future growth. [35:00] – Crypto and 24/7 Market Trading Bitcoin nears $95,000, and altcoins gain momentum. Discussion on the potential introduction of 24/7 stock market trading. Benefits and challenges of continuous trading, drawing comparisons to the crypto market. [42:00] – Investment Mindsets and Opportunities Reinforcement of long-term investment principles: Stay invested, seek opportunities. The “bull market somewhere” mantra holds true for stocks and real estate. How proactive investors can find value in volatile markets. Key Quotes: “The best time to buy real estate is always yesterday.” “Volatility is the price you pay for reward in investing.” “There's always a bull market somewhere—you just need to find it.” Links and Resources Mentioned: Federal Reserve: Upcoming rate decisions and inflation data analysis. Articles on Biden's pardon and Trump's trade policy. Recent commercial real estate data from the CMBS market. Crypto market updates and altcoin trends. Calls to Action: Stay Informed: Subscribe to the Money Moves podcast for weekly insights on markets, real estate, and personal finance. Join the Community: Connect with like-minded investors in the Wise Investor Collective Mastermind. Follow Us: Stay updated with the latest market and investment news on our social media channels. Next Episode Teaser: Tune in next week as the team explores the latest Federal Reserve decisions, how geopolitical shifts are impacting the market, and strategies to stay ahead in volatile times. Episode Sponsored By: Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/ MY FIRST 50K!: Visit https://wiseinvestorcollective.com/ and submit your application to join!

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture As the fiat currency breaks down stores will up prices as the stock runs out. Credit card debt continues to rise, this is destroying the people in this country. Debt levels are reaching a point of no return. Delinquency rates on CBMS spiked. BRICS are trapped, Trump looking for a Crypto Czar. The [DS] just showed the people their true colors. They lie to the people, the do the opposite of what they promised they weren't going to do. Joe Biden just exposed the DOJ saying they selectively targeted his son. So does this mean that the DOJ is corrupt. This is why the patriots never charged anyone, because Biden and the [DS] would have pardoned them all. Soon, justice is coming.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/WallStreetApes/status/1863266679280504973  prices will start to shoot up to $1.20 “They're gonna start incorporating all these all over. Yeah, so it's pretty crazy. I'll come back later on in the day and you'll see this go up and down in price. You'll see it go as low as like 89 cents, which is pretty crazy” Welcome to dystopia https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1863588179095228570   https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1863365027010359437   loan debt. The highest average federal student loan balance per borrower is in Washington, D.C. at $54,795. This is followed by Maryland, Georgia, and Virginia at $43,692, $42,026, and $40,137, respectively. How is this debt going to be paid off? https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1863291580662067623  FASTER pace than during the 2008 Financial Crisis. This puts the office CMBS delinquency rate on track to exceed a record of 10.7% seen in 2012. Meanwhile, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate has risen from 4.6% to 6.4% over the last 12 months, the highest since 2020. The commercial real estate crisis is accelerating.   https://twitter.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1863574285408723239   returned 57%, almost 3 times less than the Magnificent 7. As a result, Magnificent 7 stocks now reflect a near-record 31% of the S&P 500. To put this into perspective, the Magnificent 7's market cap is ~$16 trillion, more than Germany, Canada, the UK, and France's stock markets COMBINED. Truly mind-blowing numbers. Trump and BRICS: Breaking China's Bank and Making Xi Lose Face Xi Jinping wants to bypass the U.S. dollar in international trade, but President Trump doesn't want him to—and Trump will get his way. Xi's first choice is for the world to adopt the Chinese yuan as a trade and reserve currency. Although officially recognized as an international currency and included in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Special Drawing Rights basket, the yuan has failed to gain widespread adoption for trade or as a reserve currency. This is true even among BRICS partners and heavily indebted countries like Cambodia. Currently, the yuan accounts for only 2.3% of global foreign currency reserves and 3% of all trade settlements. Many articles feature headlines suggesting that the yuan accounts for 26% of global trade. However, this figure actually refers to Chinese trade, not global trade. A significant portion of this trade is with Russia, a country barred from using U.S. dollars. Another widely cited statistic is that the yuan makes up 4.74% of “global transactions,” but this figure does not reflect trade settlement exclusively. Instead, it represents a mix of various uses, not just trade. Overall, the yuan's role in global trade remains modest, primarily limited to transactions between Russia and China.

On the second part of a two-part roundtable, our panel gives its 2025 preview for the housing and mortgage landscape, the US Treasury yield curve and currency markets.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. This is part two of our special roundtable discussion on what's ahead for the global economy and markets in 2025.Today we will cover what is ahead for government bonds, currencies, and housing. I'm joined by Matt Hornbach, our Chief Macro Strategist; James Lord, Global Head of Currency and Emerging Market Strategy; Jay Bacow, our co-head of Securitized Product Strategy; and Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Product Strategy.It's Tuesday, November 19th, at 10am in New York.Matt, I'd like to go to you first. 2024 was a fascinating year for government bond yields globally. We started with a deeply inverted US yield curve at the beginning of the year, and we are ending the year with a much steeper curve – with much of that inversion gone. We have seen both meaningful sell offs and rallies over the course of the year as markets negotiated hard landing, soft landing, and no landing scenarios.With the election behind us and a significant change of policy ahead of us, how do you see the outlook for global government bond yields in 2025?Matt Hornbach: With the US election outcome known, global rate markets can march to the beat of its consequences. Central banks around the world continue to lower policy rates in our economist baseline projection, with much lower policy rates taking hold in their hard landing scenario versus higher rates in their scenarios for re-acceleration.This skew towards more dovish outcomes alongside the baseline for lower policy rates than captured in current market prices ultimately leads to lower government bond yields and steeper yield curves across most of the G10 through next year. Summarizing the regions, we expect treasury yields to move lower over the forecast horizon, helped by 75 [basis points] worth of Fed rate cuts, more than markets currently price.We forecast 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3 and 3.75 per cent by the middle of next year and ending the year just above 3.5 per cent.Our economists are forecasting a pause in the easing cycle in the second half of the year from the Fed. That would leave the Fed funds rate still above the median longer run dot.The rationale for the pause involves Fed uncertainty over the ultimate effects of tariffs and immigration reform on growth and inflation.We also see the treasury curve bull steepening throughout the forecast horizon with most of the steepening in the first half of the year, when most of the fall in yields occur.Finally, on break even inflation rates, we see five- and 10-year break evens tightening slightly by the middle of 2025 as inflation risks cool. However, as the Trump administration starts implementing tariffs, break evens widen in our forecast with the five- and 10-year maturities reaching 2.55 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively by the end of next year.As such, we think real yields will lead the bulk of the decline in nominal yields in our forecasting with the 10-year real yield around 1.45 per cent by the middle of next year; and ending the year at 1.15 per cent.Vishy Tirupattur: That's very helpful, Matt. James, clearly the incoming administration has policy choices, and their sequencing and severity will have major implications for the strength of the dollar that has rallied substantially in the last few months. Against this backdrop, how do you assess 2025 to be? What differences do you expect to see between DM and EM currency markets?James Lord: The incoming administration's proposed policies could have far-reaching impacts on currency markets, some of which are already being reflected in the price of the dollar today. We had argued ahead of the election that a Republican sweep was probably the most bullish dollar outcome, and we are now seeing that being reflected.We do think the dollar rally continues for a little bit longer as markets price in a higher likelihood of tariffs being implemented against trading partners and there being a risk of additional deficit expansion in 2025. However, we don't really see that dollar strength persisting for long throughout 2025.So, I think that is – compared to the current debate, compared to the current market pricing – a negative dollar catalyst that should get priced into markets.And to your question, Vishy, that there will be differences with EM and also within EM as well. Probably the most notable one is the renminbi. We have the renminbi as the weakest currency within all of our forecasts for 2025, really reflecting the impact of tariffs.We expect tariffs against China to be more consequential than against other countries, thus requiring a bigger adjustment on the FX side. We see dollar China, or dollar renminbi ending next year at 7.6. So that represents a very sharp divergence versus dollar yen and the broader DXY moves – and is a consequence of tariffs.And that does imply that the Fed's broad dollar index only has a pretty modest decline next year, despite the bigger move in the DXY. The rest of Asia will likely follow dollar China more closely than dollar yen, in our view, causing AXJ currencies to generally underperform; versus CMEA and Latin America, which on the whole do a bit better.Vishy Tirupattur: Jay, in contrast to corporate credit, mortgage spreads are at or about their long-term average levels. How do you expect 2025 to pan out for mortgages? What are the key drivers of your expectations, and which potential policy changes you are most focused on?Jay Bacow: As you point out, mortgage spreads do look wide to corporate spreads, but there are good reasons for that. We all know that the Fed is reducing their holdings of mortgages, and they're the largest holder of mortgages in the world.We don't expect Fed balance sheet reduction of mortgages to change, even if they do NQT, as is our forecast in the first quarter of 2025. When they NQT, we expect mortgage runoff to continue to go into treasuries. What we do expect to change next year is that bank demand function will shift. We are working under the assumption that the Basel III endgame either stalls under the next administration or gets released in a way that is capital neutral. And that's going to free up excess capital for banks and reduce regulatory uncertainty for them in how they deploy the cash in their portfolios.The one thing that we've been waiting for is this clarity around regulations. When that changes, we think that's going to be a positive, but it's not just banks returning to the market.We think that there's going to be tailwinds from overseas investors that are going to be hedging out their FX risks as the Fed cuts rates, and the Bank of Japan hikes, so we expect more demand from Japanese life insurance companies.A steeper yield curve is going to be good for REIT demand. And these buyers, banks, overseas REITs, they typically buy CUSIPs, and that's going to help not just from a demand side, but it's going to help funding on mortgages improve as well. And all of those things are going to take mortgage spreads tighter, and that's why we are bullish.I also want to mention agency CMBS for a moment. The technical pressure there is even better than in single family mortgages. The supply story is still constrained, but there is no Fed QT in multifamily. And then also the capital that's going to be available for banks from the deregulation will allow them – in combination with the portfolio layer hedging – to add agency CMBS in a way that they haven't really been adding in the last few years. So that could take spreads tighter as well.Now, Vishy, you also mentioned policy changes. We think discussions around GSE reform are likely to become more prevalent under the new administration.And we think that given that improved capitalization, depending on the path of their earnings and any plans to raise capital, we could see an attempt to exit conservatorship during this administration.But we will simply state our view that any plan that results in a meaningful change to the capital treatment – or credit risk – to the investors of conventional mortgages is going to be too destabilizing for the housing finance markets to implement. And so, we don't think that path could go forward.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Jay. Jim, it was a challenging year for the housing market with historically high levels of unaffordability and continued headwinds of limited supply. How do you see 2025 to be for the US housing market? And going beyond housing, what is your outlook for the opportunity set in securitized credit for 2025?James Egan: For the housing market, the 2025 narrative is going to be one about absolute level versus the direction and rate of change. For instance, Vishy, you mentioned affordability. Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of September, but it's also true that they're down roughly a hundred basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023 and we're forecasting pretty healthy decreases in the 10-year Treasury throughout 2025. So, we expect affordability to improve over the coming year. Supply? It remains near historic lows, but it's been increasing year to date.So similar to the affordability narrative, it's more challenged than it's been in decades; but it's also less challenged than it was a year ago.So, what does all this mean for the housing market as we look through 2025? Despite the improvements in affordability, sales volumes have been pretty stagnant this year. Total volumes – so existing plus new volumes – are actually down about 3 per cent year to date. And look, that isn't unusual. It typically takes about a year for sales volumes to pick up when you see this kind of significant affordability improvement that we've witnessed over the past year, even with the recent backup in mortgage rates.And that means we think we're kind of entering that sweet spot for increased sales now. We've seen purchase applications turn positive year over year. We've seen pending home sales turn positive year over year. That's the first time both of those things have happened since 2021. But when we think about how much sales 2025, we think it's going to be a little bit more curtailed. There are a whole host of reasons for that – but one of them the lock in effect has been a very popular talking point in the housing market this year. If we look at just the difference between the effective mortgage rate on the outstanding universe and where you can take out a mortgage rate today, the universe is still over 200 basis points out of the money.To the upside, you're not going to get 10 per cent growth there, but you're going to get more than 5 per cent growth in new home sales. And what I really want to emphasize here is – yes, mortgage rates have increased recently. We expect them to come down in 2025; but even if they don't, we don't think there's a lot of room for downside to existing home sales from here.There's some level of housing activity that has to happen, regardless of where mortgage rates or affordability are. We think we're there. Turnover measured as the number of transactions – existing transactions – as a share of the outstanding housing market is lower now than it was during the great financial crisis. It's as low as it's been in a little bit over 40 years. We just don't think it can fall that much further from here.But as we go through 2025, we do think it dips negative. We have a negative 2 per cent HPA call next year, not significantly down. We don't think there's a lot of room to the downside given the healthy foundation, the low supply, the strong credit standards in the housing market. But there is a little bit of negativity next year before home prices reaccelerate.This leaves us generically constructive on securitized products across the board. Given how much of the capital structure has flattened this year, we think CLO AAAs actually offer the best value amongst the debt tranches there. We think non-QM triple AAAs and agency MBS is going to tighten. They look cheap to IG corporates. Consumer ABS, we also think still looks pretty cheap to IG corporates. Even in the CMBS pace, we think there's opportunities. CMBS has really outperformed this year as rates have come down. Now our bull bear spread differentials are much wider in CMBS than they are elsewhere, but in our base case, conduit BBB minuses still offer attractive value.That being said, if we're going to go down the capital structure, our favorite expression in the securitized credit space is US CLO equity.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Jay and Jim, and also Matt and James.We'll close it out here. As a reminder, if you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

This week, before 45,000 dockworkers at 36 American ports went on strike, Fed Chair Powell stated that the U.S. economy is in solid shape and the Fed intends to keep it that way... In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the news of the week, including the port strike, Fed speak, and macro figures like jobs and PMI, and explain the impact on CRE. We also share our latest data for CMBS and bank CRE loan delinquencies, and examine the immediate impact of Hurricane Helene on CRE. Tune in now. Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this Topical Tuesday episode, I spoke with Brian Burke who is the President & CEO of Praxis Capital, Inc. Brian has acquired over 800 million dollars' worth of real estate over a 30-year career including over 4,000 multifamily units and more than 700 single-family homes. He is also the author of “The Hands-Off Investor: An Insider's Guide to Investing in Passive Real Estate Syndications”.  Be sure to tune in if you're interested in learning about: The rise in distress across different lending sectors, with CMBS loans seeing notable increases. Regional multifamily opportunities, highlighting short-term potential in the Midwest and long-term value in the Sunbelt. The challenges and evolving strategies in value-add multifamily investing. Insights on vertical integration in property management and its complexities. To your success, Tyler Lyons Resources mentioned in the episode: Brian Burke Website Instagram Book Interested in investing with Asym Capital? Check out our webinar.   Please note that investing in private placement securities entails a high degree of risk, including illiquidity of the investment and loss of principal. Please refer to the subscription agreement for a discussion of risk factors. Tired of scrambling for capital?  Check out our new FREE webinar -  How to Ensure You Never Scramble for Capital Again (The 3 Capital-Raising Secrets). Click Here to register.   CFC Podcast Facebook Group

In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Adam Behlman, Adrienne Coyle, and Natan Bresler of Starwood Property Trust (Starwood). The Starwood team walks us through the background of their firm and the launch of Starwood Solutions. We talk through CMBS market trends and insights on how this market compares to others that we have seen over the years. We also discuss commercial real estate cycles, recent Trepp data, and a sense of optimism in the industry. Episode Notes: - Starwood Background (1:14) - Comparing This Year to Last Year (9:25) - Thoughts on Multifamily (18:05) - Solution-side of the Starwood Business (23:00) - Data on Bank CRE Exposure (27:00) - What We're Seeing in the Market (33:45) - Discussing Debt Yield, Cap Rates & Underwriting (39:42) - Shoutouts (44:16) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Office buildings continue to struggle in the post-pandemic era, but our Chief Fixed Income Strategist notes that other properties have turned a corner. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about how the challenges facing the US commercial real estate markets have evolved and talk about where they are headed next.It's Wednesday, Sep 11th at 10 am in New York.Over the last year and half, the challenges of commercial real estate, or CRE in short, have been periodically in the spotlight. The last time we discussed this issue here was in the first quarter of this year. That was in the aftermath of loan losses announced by a regional bank that primarily focused on rent-stabilized multifamily and CRE lending in the New York metropolitan area. At the same time, lenders and investors in Japan, Germany and Canada also reported sizable credit losses and write-down related to US commercial real estate.At that time, we had said that CRE issues should be scrutinized through the lenses of lenders and property types; and that saw meaningful challenges in both – in particular, regional banks as lenders and office as a property type.Rolling the calendar forward, where do things stand now?Focusing on the lenders first, there is some good news. While regional bank challenges from their CRE exposures have not gone away, they are not getting any worse. That means incremental reserves for CRE losses have been below what we had feared. Our economists' expectations of Fed's rate cuts on the back of their soft-landing thesis, gives us the conviction that lower rates should be an incremental benefit from a credit quality perspective for banks because it alleviates pressure on debt service coverage ratios for borrowers. Lower rates also give banks more room to work with their borrowers for longer by providing extensions. For banks, this means while CRE net charge-offs could rise in the near term, they are likely to stabilize in 2025.In other words, even though the fundamental deterioration in terms of the level of delinquencies and losses may be ahead, the rate of change seems to have clearly turned. In that sense, as long as the rate cuts that we anticipate materialize, the worst of the CRE issues for regional banks may now be behind us.From the lens of property types, it is important not to paint all property types with the same brushstroke of negativity. Office lots remain the pain point. Looking at the payoff rates in CMBS pools gives us a granular look at the performance across different property types.Overall, 76 per cent of the CRE loans that matured over the past 12 months paid off, which is a pretty healthy rate. However, in office loans, the payoff rate was just 43 per cent. Other property types were clearly much better. For example, 100 per cent of industrial property loans, 96 per cent of multi-family loans, 89 per cent of hotel loans that matured in the last 12 months paid off. The payoff rates in retail property loans were a bit lower but still pretty healthy at 76 per cent, in clear contrast to office properties. Delinquency rates across property types also show a similar trend with office loans driving the lion's share of the overall increase in delinquencies.In short, the secular headwinds facing the office market have not dissipated. Office property valuations, leasing arrangements and financing structures must adjust to the post-pandemic realities of office work. While this shift has begun, more is needed. So, there is really no quick resolution for these challenges which we think are likely to persist. This is especially true in central business district offices that require significant capex for upgrades or repurposing for use as residential housing.Overall, we stick to our contention that commercial real estate risks present a persistent challenge but are unlikely to become systemic for the economy. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen to this and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode of the Keeping It Real Estate Show, co-host Mike Roeder breaks down the latest on CMBS delinquencies and the surge in commercial real estate foreclosures. With delinquency rates rising over 5% and foreclosures rising to levels not seen in nearly a decade, Mike explores the key drivers behind this trend, including high interest rates and the slow return of workers to offices. Learn how these distressed properties are creating unique investment opportunities and what savvy investors need to know to capitalize on the current market conditions in 2024 and beyond. Whether you're an experienced operator or new to commercial real estate, this episode will provide valuable insights into navigating the challenges and opportunities in today's market. Don't miss out—tune in now to discover strategies for turning distress into success! Visit www.granitetowersequitygroup.com/invest to join our email list and stay updated on our latest investment opportunities. Thanks for listening! Keeping it Real Estate is brought to you by Granite Towers Equity Group, helping investors create passive income through multifamily real estate. To get in touch with the founders of Granite Towers, Mike Roeder and Dan Brisse, visit https://www.granitetowersequitygroup.com/contact

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe debt level has grown to an unsustainable level for the people, as time goes the people will not be able to survive. The system is breaking apart and no matter what the Biden admin does it will fail. The [CB] will not be able to handle the economic storm that his approaching. The [DS] is ready to make their next move. They have moved [KH] into position but soon she will be removed from the board. The next player will most likely be [BO] or [MO]. Trump has now returned to X, timing is everything. We are now entering the 4th quarter and all roads lead to Obama. It's going to get bumpy so faster your seat belts.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1821900447856341046 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1822711419122618368   bankruptcies have more than DOUBLED in just 2 years. This comes after many companies have struggled to make their debt payments as the Fed raised interest rates to the highest level in 23 years. Now, markets are pricing in 50 basis point rate cuts as the US economy is on the verge of a recession. How is this a "soft landing?" https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1822980127845720374   decreased by ~22 points over the last 2 years as the labor market has materially slowed down. In the past, such a rapid decline in consumer sentiment about jobs has ALWAYS coincided with a recession. Meanwhile, the ratio of job openings per unemployed worker fell from 2.0 in 2022 to 1.2 in June 2024. The labor market is no longer tight. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1823003820462313612   2008 Financial Crisis. A top AAA-rated CMBS experienced a $40 million loss in May for the first time since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Commercial real estate bankruptcies are coming. Kamala Harris launched IRS harassment of tipped workers in 2022 through her tie-breaking vote for the Inflation Reduction Act  remember the badly misnamed Inflation Reduction Act, the government spendathon which brought us so much of the inflation we have now? It was in that bill that 80,000 newly minted IRS agents would be hired, supposedly to go after all the billionaire tax cheats out there. The U.S. billionaire count, according to Forbes magazine, is 813. Kamala played the key role in getting that law passed. https://twitter.com/bonchieredstate/status/1822609692910137823?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1822609692910137823%7Ctwgr%5E7d1332bf4d2ac649cc45223f47047ffaef6a4968%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanthinker.com%2Fblog%2F2024%2F08%2Fkamala_harris_launched_harassment_of_tip_workers_in_2022_through_the_inflation_reduction_act.html   And with just 813 billionaires to harass, who did those 80,000 go after? That's right, the little guys, especially the ones who are paid in tips. The Wall Street Journal's editorial page found a Treasury report indicating that middle class taxpayers were getting the brunt of the IRS offensive, which would also include some tip workers. Tips, after all, are easy pickings for underreporting owing to the lack of paper trail:  The most recent data suggests the IRS is still focused on the middle class. As of last summer, 63% of new audits targeted taxpayers with income of less than $200,000. It gets worse, and here is where the second half of McDonald's tweet is described: With all that new federal money brought to them by Kamala Harris's tie-breaking vote, tip workers were the special little target of the IRS's shiny new army of auditors.