Podcasts about cmbs

Having navigated headwinds from interest rate hikes and secular shifts in office usage and online shopping in recent years, the US commercial mortgage-backed securities market was seemingly embracing a full resurgence. In 2024, its origination hit a record $104.05 billion, a 165 percent increase from the previous year.   While that momentum continued into the first quarter of 2025, it stumbled when the overall capital markets were taken on a volatile ride after the Trump administration's announcement in April about massive changes in tariffs. As a result, April was a much quieter month for CMBS. Deals got pulled or paused, and there were fewer loans priced.   Borrowers, issuers and bond buyers told PERE Credit that although the activities were slowed down by the unprecedented market volatility, the market stabilized swiftly, with spreads gradually grinding back and new originations returning going into May.  Often viewed as a barometer of the broader commercial real estate market, the sector's swift recovery after market turmoil signals the resilience of the industry in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. In this episode, Zachary Cohn, managing director at Brookfield Asset Management, and James Stouse, senior manager of CMBS credit research at Barings, shared their observations on the CMBS resurgence.  For more insights on this, see PERE Credit‘s June/July cover story.

Commercial real estate lending surged in Q1 2025, with CBRE reporting a 90% year-over-year jump in loan activity and tighter spreads driving new deals. In this episode, we break down what's fueling the rebound—including bank and CMBS growth—and explore improving multifamily underwriting metrics, where investor sentiment for core assets is rising even as value-add assumptions hold steady. Subscribe to the BiggerPockets Channel for the best real estate investing education online! Become a member of the BiggerPockets community of real estate investors - https://www.biggerpockets.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of 9x90™, host Adi Soozin sits down with Grant Horwitz, Managing Partner of the Heritage Real Estate Fund, for a behind-the-scenes look at his journey from Wall Street to building and managing $1.4 billion in real estate assets.Grant shares how his early days at Salomon Brothers on the CMBS trading desk ignited his passion for commercial real estate, the lessons he learned at a multigenerational Florida-based firm, and what drove him to ultimately co-found a fund that's already oversubscribed.Whether you're a seasoned investor or exploring the CRE space for the first time, this conversation offers rare insights into what it takes to build a high-performance real estate fund with institutional-grade discipline and generational vision.Topics include:Grant's path from investment banking to institutional real estateWhat CMBS actually is—and why it mattersThe power of property management and asset-level executionHow the Heritage Fund targets overlooked value in Sunbelt marketsThe role of integrity, vision, and trust in scaling a fund

Today's episode is from Mobile Home Park #65 that originally aired on April 27, 2017. Welcome to the Mobile Home Park Academy podcast. In this episode, Charles and I will discuss mistake number 20 from our popular eBook, “The 21 Biggest Mistakes Investors Make When purchasing their First Mobile Home Park…and how to avoid them.” There are many different ways to obtain financing on a mobile home park. Everything from a master-lease with purchase option all the way to doing sophisticated CMBS loans, we cover it all. As an investor, you need to understand what these options are and when they are appropriate. Certain parks you will run into throughout your search will simply need to be creatively financed based on how they are performing. Being able to recognize this immediately will allow you to become a better negotiator and will keep you from wasting your time with unrealistic sellers. Our goal is to show you how to identify the most appropriate financing options for the park you are looking at. We will also give you strategies to help make the financing process easier and make you more effective at conveying your needs to a seller. In addition to this we will show you the proper ways to structure these creatively financed deals.   Recommended Resources: Accredited Investors, you're invited to Join the Cashflow Investor Club to learn how you can partner with Kevin Bupp on current and upcoming opportunities to create passive cash flow and build wealth. Join the Club! If you're a high net worth investor with capital to deploy in the next 12 months and you want to build passive income and wealth with a trusted partner, go to InvestWithKB.com for opportunities to invest in real estate projects alongside Kevin and his team.  Looking for the ultimate guide to passive investing? Grab a copy of my latest book, The Cash Flow Investor at KevinBupp.com.  Tap into a wealth of free information on Commercial Real Estate Investing by listening to past podcast episodes at KevinBupp.com/Podcast.

The Pulse of the Debt Markets — with Orest Mandzy, CRE Direct Capital market confidence is cautiously returning, but undercurrents of risk remain. In my wide-ranging conversation with Orest Mandzy, Managing Editor of Commercial Real Estate Direct, we discuss what recent CMBS issuance tells us about liquidity, why delinquency headlines may be misleading, and how sponsors can position themselves amid policy shocks and structural market shifts.   Liquidity Is Back — But Driven by Giants CMBS issuance jumped 110% in Q1 2025, totaling nearly $37 billion. While that headline suggests a resurgence of confidence, Orest clarifies that most of that growth comes from SASB (Single Asset, Single Borrower) deals – large trophy assets being financed and securitized by institutional players. These are not indicative of broad-based confidence in middle-market real estate.   To gauge true liquidity, he says, focus on conduit deals – pools of smaller $10M–$25M loans originated by banks and institutional lenders and repackaged into +/- $1B bond offerings. Robust conduit activity reflects a healthier market for everyday sponsors.   “If you've got solid conduit issuance,” says Orest, “that tells you there's liquidity in the market – not just for trophy deals.”   Rising Delinquencies: Real or a Red Herring? Recent headlines warned that CMBS delinquency rates exceeded 7%, the highest since 2021. But Orest has looked deeper into the data and sees it is far from being systemic. A handful of large, troubled multifamily loans, such as the $1.5B Park Merced in San Francisco and a floating-rate New York portfolio, together make up nearly 60% of those delinquencies. The common thread? These loans were made pre-COVID or in 2021 with floating-rate debt and now can't refinance in today's rate environment. But they're outliers, not bellwethers. Fannie and Freddie multifamily delinquencies remain under 1%, and even in CMBS, the average LTVs have been conservative.   “Multifamily looks worse than it is. Strip out the outliers and the market's still performing.”   CLOs, Banks, and the Competitive Landscape CMBS is just one lane in the broader lending freeway. Orest distinguishes it from CLOs, which are floating-rate, short-term loans used by debt funds for leverage, and from agencies like Fannie and Freddie, which underwrite more conservatively.   In 2024: Agencies originated ~$60B each CMBS did ~$40B CLOs only ~$8B – down sharply from peak years Debt funds relying on CLOs are now facing stiff competition from banks, which are back in the market after a cautious 2023. With banks accounting for 40% of CRE loan volume annually, this shift matters.   For sponsors, it means a broader set of options but also a new underwriting reality. Orest notes that while leverage is available, it's on tighter terms: LTVs in the low 60s and debt service coverage ratios near 2.0x are now standard for institutional-quality debt.   The Tariff Shock and Bond Market Jitters One of the most important takeaways: macro events like tariffs are now exerting real-time pressure on the capital stack.   In early April, CMBS bond spreads spiked from 80bps to 108bps over Treasuries as the market braced for a new round of tariffs. That spread spike pushed borrowing costs up and froze CMBS issuance for nearly 10 days – a signal of how fragile the system remains to policy volatility.  Although bond spreads have since tightened, Orest warns that risk repricing is now a function of policy headlines, not just economic fundamentals.   “Uncertainty is risk. And when investors sense more of it, they demand more yield. That makes loans more expensive and deal volume drops.”   Positive Leverage or No Leverage: Sponsor Guidance Asked what CRE sponsors and investors should be doing in the next 3–12 months, Orest's answer is clear: Seek positive leverage from Day One – don't rely on NOI lifts growth to bail you out. Consider no leverage at all if you're sitting on cash and don't want to risk default. Underwrite conservatively and turn over every rock. The deal you don't do may save you. “If you buy with positive leverage, great. If not, maybe don't borrow at all.”   Special Servicing > Delinquencies For investors and borrowers watching for cracks in the market, Orest recommends a lesser-known but more reliable signal: the special servicing rate in CMBS. Loans enter special servicing before they go delinquent, usually triggered by pending lease expirations, tenant loss, or anticipated refinance trouble. This metric has been rising and, unlike delinquencies, tends to stay elevated longer. Sponsors should watch this closely.   Local Policy Risk: The Property Tax Squeeze Orest flags an emerging risk with local governments under fiscal stress. Cities like San Francisco, where office values have cratered, still rely on CRE for a large share of tax revenue. If values fall but municipalities resist cutting spending, expect tax rates to rise, eroding asset value further.   “Where do cities go when they need money? To the deep pockets. And that's commercial real estate.”   Industrial and Insurance: Still in the Crosshairs While multifamily has absorbed most of the press, Orest highlights risk building in other sectors: Industrial may face headwinds from tariffs disrupting trade flows and warehouse demand. Insurance costs, especially in hurricane-prone areas, continue to rise, sometimes outpacing rent growth. In one example, he cited an apartment property in Tampa where gross revenue rose 50% in five years, but expenses outpaced it, limiting refinance options.   Geopolitics, De-Dollarization, and Exorbitant Privilege One of my concerns is about broader macro risks – de-dollarization, loss of U.S. financial credibility, and capital flight from Treasuries. Orest acknowledged these as tail risks but noted they're not front of mind for most market participants… yet.   Still, if foreign buyers ever pull back on U.S. Treasuries, that could cause a spike in long-term rates, forcing CRE valuations down and capital costs up. It's not imminent, but it's worth tracking.   “If China and Japan stop buying Treasuries, we've got a real problem. All bets are off.”   Final Thought The key insight from this episode: the market is functioning but only just. Liquidity is back, but it's conditional. Optimism exists, but it's fragile. And sponsors must walk a tightrope between opportunity and overextension.   Orest's advice? Borrow smart. Underwrite for today's risks – not yesterday's assumptions. And remember: your best defense in uncertain times is positive leverage and deep diligence.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

What the Debt Markets Are Telling Us — and Why Sponsors Should Listen Insights from Lisa Pendergast, Executive Director, CREFC   In today's capital markets, where debt is more expensive, less available, and slower to move, understanding how credit flows work has become just as important as understanding your deal. That's why I sat down with Lisa Pendergast, Executive Director of the Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) – a central figure in the $5 trillion CRE debt markets – to ask what the institutions upstream are seeing, and what that means for those of us operating on the front lines of equity, operations, and acquisitions.   A Market in Holding Pattern Lisa noted that while Q4 2024 sentiment among debt market participants had turned unexpectedly upbeat, that optimism collapsed in Q1 2025. The cause? Policy uncertainty, rate volatility, and a reemergence of geopolitical and trade risks, most notably the return of tariffs under the Trump administration.   The result is hesitation. From the largest bond desks to the average sponsor refinancing a stabilized deal, participants are stuck in wait-and-see mode. "When there's uncertainty," Lisa explained, "things just stop."   The Math Has Changed Lisa pointed to a roughly 300-400 basis point gap between legacy loan coupons and current market rates. Even where property fundamentals are stable, that rate delta is making refinancings difficult, especially when higher cap rates have also eroded asset valuations. The implication: more equity must be written into every deal, or the loan won't pencil.   This is the backdrop to rising CMBS delinquencies, particularly in office and, increasingly, multifamily markets where excess supply and rent softening have converged. Lenders aren't panicking, but they are requiring more diligence, more equity, and more confidence in borrowers.   Why Sponsors Should Watch the CMBS Market For sponsors who don't interact directly with capital markets, Lisa offered a critical point: trends in CMBS spreads and issuance are leading indicators. When investors demand higher spreads (i.e., more compensation for risk), lenders raise rates, reduce proceeds, or pull back altogether. She explained the distinction between conduit deals (pools of smaller loans) and SASB structures (large, single-sponsor or single-asset bonds). The conduit market, a lifeline for mid-sized deals, has slowed dramatically. That signals tightening liquidity for smaller sponsors or niche asset classes. Meanwhile, large SASB deals continue but only with strong assets, strong borrowers, and deep-pocketed equity partners.   The Regulatory Horizon Lisa also addressed deregulation under Trump 2.0. While she hasn't seen core rules like Dodd-Frank or the Volcker Rule reversed outright, she's watching how new leadership at key agencies may soften enforcement.   Dodd-Frank was enacted after the 2008 financial crisis to rein in excessive risk-taking by lenders and increase transparency in financial markets. The Volcker Rule, a key provision, restricts banks from making speculative bets with their own capital, especially in risky vehicles like real estate-backed securities.   For sponsors, the concern isn't just about policy in Washington, it's about what happens to lending standards and capital stability when those policies shift. Lisa's concern is practical: regulatory whiplash, rules swinging left, then right, then back again, as we've seen with tariffs, undermines confidence and can freeze the flow of capital.   When lenders aren't sure what rules they'll be operating under next quarter, they hesitate and that caution trickles down to your loan terms. Sponsors should pay attention here. When policy becomes unpredictable, capital becomes cautious and that shows up in the terms you're offered, or whether your deal gets financed at all.   Final Takeaway: The Debt Market Has Grown Up Lisa struck a cautiously optimistic tone. Compared to the run-up to the 2008 crash, today's market is more disciplined. Underwriting remains sound, even in a difficult environment. But that doesn't mean lenders will stretch.   If you're a sponsor today, her message is clear: capital is out there—but it's selective, it's expensive, and it's scrutinizing every deal. You need to understand the market forces upstream to be able to compete downstream.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Mag Mile Capital Inc. (OTCQB: MMCP) is a boutique, full-service commercial real estate mortgage banking firm headquartered in Chicago, with additional offices in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Texas, and Nevada. Rushi Sha, CEO, Executive Director, and Company Secretary of Mag Mile Capital, joins us today to discuss the firm's transition from a real estate investment banking company to a tech-driven platform. Mag Mile specializes in CMBS loans and the company is focused on growth through geographic expansion, strategic acquisitions, and its AI-powered platform, CapLogic, aimed at bringing greater efficiency to commercial real estate finance.

This episode dives into the nuances, negotiation process, and key strategies to navigate distressed properties with Shlomo Chopp, Managing Partner at Case.The Crexi Podcast explores various aspects of the commercial real estate industry in conversation with top CRE professionals. In each episode, we feature different guests to tap into their wealth of CRE expertise and explore the latest trends and updates from the world of commercial real estate. In this episode of the Crexi Podcast, host Shanti Ryle sits down with Shlomo to explore the intricacies of commercial real estate investment financing. With over 20 years of experience, Shlomo shares his unique journey from PropTech to distressed real estate, discussing the strategic methodologies that have propelled his career. The conversation delves deep into the essentials of debt restructuring, the importance of preparation and relationships, and the nuances of navigating distressed assets in today's market. Gain valuable insights into creative problem-solving, effective negotiation techniques, and market trends that distinguish this market cycle from the Great Financial Crisis. Whether you're a newcomer or an industry leader, this episode offers a wealth of knowledge on achieving success in the nuanced world of CRE.Introduction to The Crexi PodcastMeet Shlomo Chopp: A Distressed Real Estate ExpertShlomo's Career Path and Early InfluencesThe Importance of Relationships in Real EstateNavigating Distressed AssetsCurrent Market Trends and ComparisonsMarket Negativity and Bank FailuresGovernment Intervention and Interest RatesReal Estate Market DynamicsInvestment Perspectives and Market PositivityRestructuring and Distressed AssetsActive Ownership and Market RealitiesBroker Insights and Passive Income MythsLender-Borrower DynamicsCreative Solutions in RestructuringRapid Fire Questions and Industry InsightsFinal Thoughts and Contact Information About Shlomo Chopp:Shlomo Chopp is the Managing Partner of Case, bringing over 20 years of commercial real estate investment and advisory experience. He specializes in crafting solutions for distressed property and debt situations while developing innovative strategies for repositioning assets and asset classes.The son of a computer programmer, Shlomo's foray into commercial real estate began in 2003 when he sold PropTech software to real estate finance brokerages. Since then, he has invested in, structured, or advised on nearly $5 billion in commercial real estate.In 2010, Shlomo founded Case Property Services (CPS) to help borrowers and guarantors navigate the challenges of distressed real estate loans in today's complex and interconnected capital markets. With expertise at the highest levels of structured finance and CMBS, his approach combines strategic analysis, planning, and diligence to create leverage for his clients and foster proactive communication between borrowers and lenders.On the investment side, Shlomo is part of a family office that owns and operates ±70 properties across the US, and multiple asset classes. Focused on value-add opportunities, he leverages his distressed debt expertise to invest across all levels of the capital stack, including bonds, loans, properties, and other derivative interests in commercial real estate.Beyond distressed debt, Shlomo has secured four commercial real estate-related patents in the areas of shopping centers, e-commerce, and fulfillment. His invention, retailOS™, is a platform designed to enhance shopping center value and improve retail operations profitability. He has If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to our newsletter and enjoy the next podcast delivered straight to your inbox. For show notes, past guests, and more CRE content, please check out Crexi's blog. Ready to find your next CRE property? Visit Crexi and immediately browse 500,000+ available commercial properties for sale and lease. Follow Crexi:https://www.crexi.com/​ https://www.crexi.com/instagram​ https://www.crexi.com/facebook​ https://www.crexi.com/twitter​ https://www.crexi.com/linkedin​ https://www.youtube.com/crexi

In this episode of the Debtwired! podcast, Mike Nowakowski, Head of Structured Products at Conning, joins Melina Chalkia, Debtwire's primary market reporter for North America, to break down why esoteric ABS has become one of the most compelling areas of the credit market for 2025. Nowakowski leads the structured products team at $ 170bn global asset manager Conning, which invests across ABS, CMBS, RMBS and other securitized markets. Esoteric ABS is gaining traction, now making up more than 30% of total ABS issuance, with outstanding supply at nearly $900bn. In this conversation, Nowakowski explains the advantages of investing in esoteric assets, like shipping containers, data centers and music royalties, compared to traditional fixed-income investments. He shares insights on data center ABS deals, the increasing crossover between ABS and CMBS, how institutional investors are increasingly allocating capital to esoteric ABS, and the rapidly evolving solar ABS market.

Fred Perreten, Managing Director of CMBS at KBRA, joins host Patrick Dolan to discuss the current landscape of the data center securitization market. We examine the market's performance in 2024, discuss potential shifts in 2025 under the Trump Administration, and break down the ratings criteria that play a role in these unique transactions.Listen and subscribe to the Securitization Insight podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast app.

Debt-Driven Reality: Understanding CRE's Structural Fragility Cracks Beneath the Surface In this episode of The Real Estate Market Watch, I sit down with Jon Winick, CEO of Clark Street Capital, to explore the increasingly fragile foundation of the commercial real estate (CRE) market. Winick draws on decades of experience in loan portfolio sales, banking, CMBS investing, and student housing to deliver a sobering, detail-rich assessment of what's coming next — and what's already hiding in plain sight.   The Fed, Interest Rates, and the “Nuclear Option” Trump vs. Powell: Market Implications Winick opens with a sharp critique of political interference in Federal Reserve policy. While the idea of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell may feel remote, he warns that even sustained political pressure has consequences. Removing Powell — the so-called "nuclear option" — would spark chaos in capital markets, undermining global confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets. “You cannot find an industry in which debt matters more than commercial real estate,” Winick says. A destabilized bond market affects CRE indirectly but profoundly by tightening liquidity and depressing investor confidence.   CRE's Dependency on Debt: Liquidity as Lifeblood Why CRE Suffers When Capital Tightens With rates elevated and uncertainty rising, Winick highlights the outsized role debt plays in CRE. Unlike most industries, capital structure is everything in real estate. Higher interest rates are more than a cost issue—they erode the viability of deals outright. His analogy lands hard: “Low rates are like tequila on a first date. High rates are like a glass of warm milk.”   Banking Behavior: The Art of Delay Defaults, Loan Maturities, and Creative Accounting Despite rising delinquencies in CMBS, bank-reported CRE loan delinquencies remain surprisingly low. Why? Banks, Winick argues, are benefiting from regulatory changes that let them defer the recognition of problem loans. “The delinquencies that you're seeing in CMBS and bank loans will inevitably converge. Banks have been able to use some new rules to hide problem loans. And eventually that [runway] runs out.” he says. Bank defaults may not be catastrophic, but their opacity clouds the picture for investors trying to assess real risk.   Creative Destruction Denied Why Bailouts Delay the Inevitable Winick argues the post-COVID economy is still “wrapped up by actual or indirect fraud.” From subsidized mortgages to suspended student loan collections, unsustainable federal programs have kept weak assets and businesses afloat. He makes a provocative case for embracing creative destruction. “We've basically decided as a society that we won't let businesses fail… but that's ultimately bad economics.”   Policy, Regulation, and the Supply-Demand Trap Deregulation and its Unintended Consequences Dodd-Frank's unintended effect was to choke off consumer credit, particularly in regions with few lenders. Winick compares Puerto Rico, with just three banks, to Iowa, with the same size population as Puerto Rico, with 246. The result? Higher interest rates, limited options, and an underfinanced economy. He calls for “smart, effective regulation,” warning that over-regulation concentrates power while under-regulation invites asset bubbles.   The Signals to Watch Now What CRE Investors Should Be Monitoring Winick identifies several canaries in the coal mine for CRE investors: Widening CMBS credit spreads: These are leading indicators of borrowing cost pressures. Corporate bankruptcies and retail closures: Especially among large tenants like Walgreens or government departments exiting leases. Shifts in political winds: Regulatory reversals could radically alter CRE's operating environment. Strategy: What Should CRE Investors Be Doing? Be Patient, but Be Realistic For investors sitting on cash, Winick's advice is pragmatic: “Be patient… [but] waiting for a home run often means you miss out on a lot of great opportunities.” He urges caution and downside awareness in every negotiation, pointing out that real movement in the market won't occur until lenders are forced to act or borrowers are out of options.   Final Thought: The Bond Vigilantes Will Win A System Bound by Market Forces Winick closes with a sharp reminder that the bond market, not politicians, sets the true limits: “The bond vigilantes always get their way.” In a world dependent on debt, real estate investors should watch not just interest rates — but who controls the levers behind them.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get:   Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Can you buy a property with 10-15% down payment? What are SBA loans and why do they matter? Which asset classes qualify for an SBA loan? Can you get working capital on your loan? Is there a prepayment penalty? Can an SBA loan be fixed or variable? Can an SBA loan be assumable? Can the SBA be a second loan on a property? Anne Mino, Sr Loan Officer at LiveOak Bank shares her insights.You can read the entire interview here: https://tinyurl.com/bdkvxrnrWhat are SBA loans, and why do they matter?The Small Business Administration (which is what SBA stands for) is a loan program that was established back in the early 1950s. The entire purpose of it is to help entrepreneurs access capital financing that they may not otherwise be able to qualify for through traditional channels, so through conventional lending and the primary benefits are lower down payments. Think of a 10% down payment, instead of 30 to 40%, which you might see in a conventional loan, and longer repayment terms. For anything that has commercial real estate involved, it is automatically on a 25-year term with competitive interest rates, and then it's easier to qualify. You don't have to have experience in your subject field. In other words, in the self-storage world, if you don't own self-storage. That's perfectly okay, and that's why the SBA enables us to do these loans to anybody who needs them.It's a little more painful to get, but nothing compared to CMBS loans, which everybody hates, but the numbers do have to work out the debt service. Please elaborate on the debt service and what the requirements are.These loans are considered cash-flow-based loans. In other words, we want to see that the cash flow of the business can support the debt. For example, if you're just looking for a land loan, and there is no business attached to it, that's not something that we could do under this loan program. But as long as there's a business attached to it, we're looking at the debt service coverage of that business to pay back the debt. In an ideal world for self-storage, we want to see that in year one, the business can reach 1.15 debt service coverage, which essentially means the business is making its loan payment and then about a 15% profit. And then we want to see it steadily go up from there, and we're very lucky in the regard that we can use a borrower's projections that they've put together to tell us what they're going to do with that business.Can SBA do loans for any asset class in real estate?Yes, as long as it's a cash-flowing business and it must be owner-occupied, not retail, office, they're non-applicable. If you're a veterinarian, let's say you buy a strip center, and it owns some other real estate, it is okay as long as 51% of that strip center is going to be used by your veterinary practice. Same thing with storage. Let's say you had a storage facility, and there was another retail component on the property. That's fine, and still SBA eligible, as long as the storage makes up more than 51% of the total square footage.For offices, it's the same thing. I would have to occupy office minimum of 51% of my office building. And for multi-family, which is similar to self-storage because we are the operators, would we automatically qualify?Multi-family does not, as they don't touch anything with residential real estate at all, even though multi-family is considered commercial.Anne Minoanne.mino@liveoak.bank

Alan Todd, CFA, Head of US Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) Research at BofA Securities, joins host Patrick Dolan to discuss the trends and expectations for the CMBS market in 2025. Alan shares his outlook on CMBS delinquency rates, special servicing rates, investor interest in alternatives such as data centers, single family rentals and self-storage and CRE CLO issuance as compared to 2024 levels. We also cover the office market dynamics in major cities, including quality shifts, supply shortages and tenant demand for second-tier office space as well as the outlook for the multifamily sector.

Send us a text◆ DOGE threatens US CMBS recovery ◆ Drill, baby, drill? Borrow, habibi, borrow ◆ Cracks appear in European credit marketJust when you thought it was safe to go back into the office... or rather back into commercial mortgage backed securities with offices as the collateral.No sooner has the US CMBS revival begun than US president Donald Trump's administration threatens to ruin it. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) spearheaded by Elon Musk is ripping up government office leases . We explain how that could hurt the CMBS market.In the Middle East, a falling oil price has set investors and bankers wondering about how much more borrowers from the region — especially Saudi Arabia — will need from the bond market this year.Cracks are also starting to appear in Europe's previously buoyant credit market. We look at where to find the fissures and how issuers can bridge them.

Key Takeaways:Industrial real estate remains resilient, with low vacancy rates, but older buildings may need upgrades to meet modern standards.The multifamily market is bifurcating, with Class A urban properties seeing more challenges, while Class B and workforce housing have stronger fundamentals in certain areas.The office market has structurally changed, with high vacancy rates, but there are pockets of resilience in medical office, Class A trophy spaces, and suburban mixed-use developments.In retail, grocery-anchored centers and experiential retail are performing well, while malls and big box retail continue to struggle, especially in weaker markets.Potential opportunities exist in distressed office, hospitality with expiring CMBS loans, retail repositioning, and affordable office/multifamily in good secondary markets, but caution is advised to avoid overpaying.

“There is one AAA bond that has taken a loss so far in CMBS. There will be plenty more.” Waterfall Asset Management's Head of ABS Strategy Keerthi Raghavan didn't mince words in laying out his view of the office real estate market, one of the few corners of the credit universe offering significant distressed opportunities. Raghavan, speaking with Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel, examined the widely different segments of the commercial real estate market, his data-centric approach to investing and strategies employed amid distressed situations (5:50). Prior to that, Hebert and Brendel highlighted the risks investors take when the market speculation is high, evidenced by historically tight spreads and a dearth of distressed debt. The podcast concludes with BI's Negisa Balluku joining the two analysts for a round table discussion covering Ligado Networks, Serta Simmons, Party City, Hertz, Incora, and CommScope(1:25:40).

Welcome to the first Money Moves episode of 2025! In this action-packed episode, we dive deep into:

Over his 36-year career, Simon Ziff, President of Ackman-Ziff, has overseen more than $100 billion in transactions and witnessed the dramatic evolution of the real estate industry brought about by the Savings and Loan Crisis. Simon shares his journey from joining Ackman Brothers in the 1980s to seizing the opportunities created by the rise of CMBS and private equity in the 1990s. From personal anecdotes to expert insights, this episode is packed with an insider's experience navigating market cycles. — Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.  Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com.  About Fundrise  With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button.  Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund's offering document(s).  Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.

Original Release Date November 19, 2024: On the second part of a two-part roundtable, our panel gives its 2025 preview for the housing and mortgage landscape, the US Treasury yield curve and currency markets.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: 2024 was a year of transition for economies and global markets. Central banks began easing interest rates, U.S. elections signaled significant policy change, and Generative AI made a quantum leap in adoption and development.Thank you for listening throughout 2024, as we navigated the issues and events that shaped financial markets, and society. We hope you'll join us next year as we continue to bring you the most up to date information on the financial world. This week, please enjoy some encores of episodes over the last few months and we'll be back with all new episodes in January. From all of us on Thoughts on the Market, Happy Holidays, and a very Happy New Year. Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. This is part two of our special roundtable discussion on what's ahead for the global economy and markets in 2025.Today we will cover what is ahead for government bonds, currencies, and housing. I'm joined by Matt Hornbach, our Chief Macro Strategist; James Lord, Global Head of Currency and Emerging Market Strategy; Jay Bacow, our co-head of Securitized Product Strategy; and Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Product Strategy.It's Tuesday, November 19th, at 10am in New York.Matt, I'd like to go to you first. 2024 was a fascinating year for government bond yields globally. We started with a deeply inverted US yield curve at the beginning of the year, and we are ending the year with a much steeper curve – with much of that inversion gone. We have seen both meaningful sell offs and rallies over the course of the year as markets negotiated hard landing, soft landing, and no landing scenarios.With the election behind us and a significant change of policy ahead of us, how do you see the outlook for global government bond yields in 2025?Matt Hornbach: With the US election outcome known, global rate markets can march to the beat of its consequences. Central banks around the world continue to lower policy rates in our economist baseline projection, with much lower policy rates taking hold in their hard landing scenario versus higher rates in their scenarios for re-acceleration.This skew towards more dovish outcomes alongside the baseline for lower policy rates than captured in current market prices ultimately leads to lower government bond yields and steeper yield curves across most of the G10 through next year. Summarizing the regions, we expect treasury yields to move lower over the forecast horizon, helped by 75 [basis points] worth of Fed rate cuts, more than markets currently price.We forecast 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3 and 3.75 per cent by the middle of next year and ending the year just above 3.5 per cent.Our economists are forecasting a pause in the easing cycle in the second half of the year from the Fed. That would leave the Fed funds rate still above the median longer run dot.The rationale for the pause involves Fed uncertainty over the ultimate effects of tariffs and immigration reform on growth and inflation.We also see the treasury curve bull steepening throughout the forecast horizon with most of the steepening in the first half of the year, when most of the fall in yields occur.Finally, on break even inflation rates, we see five- and 10-year break evens tightening slightly by the middle of 2025 as inflation risks cool. However, as the Trump administration starts implementing tariffs, break evens widen in our forecast with the five- and 10-year maturities reaching 2.55 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively by the end of next year.As such, we think real yields will lead the bulk of the decline in nominal yields in our forecasting with the 10-year real yield around 1.45 per cent by the middle of next year; and ending the year at 1.15 per cent.Vishy Tirupattur: That's very helpful, Matt. James, clearly the incoming administration has policy choices, and their sequencing and severity will have major implications for the strength of the dollar that has rallied substantially in the last few months. Against this backdrop, how do you assess 2025 to be? What differences do you expect to see between DM and EM currency markets?James Lord: The incoming administration's proposed policies could have far-reaching impacts on currency markets, some of which are already being reflected in the price of the dollar today. We had argued ahead of the election that a Republican sweep was probably the most bullish dollar outcome, and we are now seeing that being reflected.We do think the dollar rally continues for a little bit longer as markets price in a higher likelihood of tariffs being implemented against trading partners and there being a risk of additional deficit expansion in 2025. However, we don't really see that dollar strength persisting for long throughout 2025.So, I think that is – compared to the current debate, compared to the current market pricing – a negative dollar catalyst that should get priced into markets.And to your question, Vishy, that there will be differences with EM and also within EM as well. Probably the most notable one is the renminbi. We have the renminbi as the weakest currency within all of our forecasts for 2025, really reflecting the impact of tariffs.We expect tariffs against China to be more consequential than against other countries, thus requiring a bigger adjustment on the FX side. We see dollar China, or dollar renminbi ending next year at 7.6. So that represents a very sharp divergence versus dollar yen and the broader DXY moves – and is a consequence of tariffs.And that does imply that the Fed's broad dollar index only has a pretty modest decline next year, despite the bigger move in the DXY. The rest of Asia will likely follow dollar China more closely than dollar yen, in our view, causing AXJ currencies to generally underperform; versus CMEA and Latin America, which on the whole do a bit better.Vishy Tirupattur: Jay, in contrast to corporate credit, mortgage spreads are at or about their long-term average levels. How do you expect 2025 to pan out for mortgages? What are the key drivers of your expectations, and which potential policy changes you are most focused on?Jay Bacow: As you point out, mortgage spreads do look wide to corporate spreads, but there are good reasons for that. We all know that the Fed is reducing their holdings of mortgages, and they're the largest holder of mortgages in the world.We don't expect Fed balance sheet reduction of mortgages to change, even if they do NQT, as is our forecast in the first quarter of 2025. When they NQT, we expect mortgage runoff to continue to go into treasuries. What we do expect to change next year is that bank demand function will shift. We are working under the assumption that the Basel III endgame either stalls under the next administration or gets released in a way that is capital neutral. And that's going to free up excess capital for banks and reduce regulatory uncertainty for them in how they deploy the cash in their portfolios.The one thing that we've been waiting for is this clarity around regulations. When that changes, we think that's going to be a positive, but it's not just banks returning to the market.We think that there's going to be tailwinds from overseas investors that are going to be hedging out their FX risks as the Fed cuts rates, and the Bank of Japan hikes, so we expect more demand from Japanese life insurance companies.A steeper yield curve is going to be good for REIT demand. And these buyers, banks, overseas REITs, they typically buy CUSIPs, and that's going to help not just from a demand side, but it's going to help funding on mortgages improve as well. And all of those things are going to take mortgage spreads tighter, and that's why we are bullish.I also want to mention agency CMBS for a moment. The technical pressure there is even better than in single family mortgages. The supply story is still constrained, but there is no Fed QT in multifamily. And then also the capital that's going to be available for banks from the deregulation will allow them – in combination with the portfolio layer hedging – to add agency CMBS in a way that they haven't really been adding in the last few years. So that could take spreads tighter as well.Now, Vishy, you also mentioned policy changes. We think discussions around GSE reform are likely to become more prevalent under the new administration.And we think that given that improved capitalization, depending on the path of their earnings and any plans to raise capital, we could see an attempt to exit conservatorship during this administration.But we will simply state our view that any plan that results in a meaningful change to the capital treatment – or credit risk – to the investors of conventional mortgages is going to be too destabilizing for the housing finance markets to implement. And so, we don't think that path could go forward.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Jay. Jim, it was a challenging year for the housing market with historically high levels of unaffordability and continued headwinds of limited supply. How do you see 2025 to be for the US housing market? And going beyond housing, what is your outlook for the opportunity set in securitized credit for 2025?James Egan: For the housing market, the 2025 narrative is going to be one about absolute level versus the direction and rate of change. For instance, Vishy, you mentioned affordability. Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of September, but it's also true that they're down roughly a hundred basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023 and we're forecasting pretty healthy decreases in the 10-year Treasury throughout 2025. So, we expect affordability to improve over the coming year. Supply? It remains near historic lows, but it's been increasing year to date.So similar to the affordability narrative, it's more challenged than it's been in decades; but it's also less challenged than it was a year ago.So, what does all this mean for the housing market as we look through 2025? Despite the improvements in affordability, sales volumes have been pretty stagnant this year. Total volumes – so existing plus new volumes – are actually down about 3 per cent year to date. And look, that isn't unusual. It typically takes about a year for sales volumes to pick up when you see this kind of significant affordability improvement that we've witnessed over the past year, even with the recent backup in mortgage rates.And that means we think we're kind of entering that sweet spot for increased sales now. We've seen purchase applications turn positive year over year. We've seen pending home sales turn positive year over year. That's the first time both of those things have happened since 2021. But when we think about how much sales 2025, we think it's going to be a little bit more curtailed. There are a whole host of reasons for that – but one of them the lock in effect has been a very popular talking point in the housing market this year. If we look at just the difference between the effective mortgage rate on the outstanding universe and where you can take out a mortgage rate today, the universe is still over 200 basis points out of the money.To the upside, you're not going to get 10 per cent growth there, but you're going to get more than 5 per cent growth in new home sales. And what I really want to emphasize here is – yes, mortgage rates have increased recently. We expect them to come down in 2025; but even if they don't, we don't think there's a lot of room for downside to existing home sales from here.There's some level of housing activity that has to happen, regardless of where mortgage rates or affordability are. We think we're there. Turnover measured as the number of transactions – existing transactions – as a share of the outstanding housing market is lower now than it was during the great financial crisis. It's as low as it's been in a little bit over 40 years. We just don't think it can fall that much further from here.But as we go through 2025, we do think it dips negative. We have a negative 2 per cent HPA call next year, not significantly down. We don't think there's a lot of room to the downside given the healthy foundation, the low supply, the strong credit standards in the housing market. But there is a little bit of negativity next year before home prices reaccelerate.This leaves us generically constructive on securitized products across the board. Given how much of the capital structure has flattened this year, we think CLO AAAs actually offer the best value amongst the debt tranches there. We think non-QM triple AAAs and agency MBS is going to tighten. They look cheap to IG corporates. Consumer ABS, we also think still looks pretty cheap to IG corporates. Even in the CMBS pace, we think there's opportunities. CMBS has really outperformed this year as rates have come down. Now our bull bear spread differentials are much wider in CMBS than they are elsewhere, but in our base case, conduit BBB minuses still offer attractive value.That being said, if we're going to go down the capital structure, our favorite expression in the securitized credit space is US CLO equity.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Jay and Jim, and also Matt and James.We'll close it out here. As a reminder, if you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

You'll learn about the intricacies of real estate financing in this episode with Scott Singer, Co-Head of the Debt and Equity Group at Avison Young. Scott discusses different types of lenders, including banks, insurance companies, CMBS lenders, and private credit providers, along with their roles in today's market.   You'll gain insight into the evolution of the lending landscape, including how new players and changing dynamics create opportunities for borrowers. Scott covers key topics such as understanding loan-to-value ratios, debt service coverage, recourse vs. non-recourse loans, and prepayment penalties. With examples ranging from relationship lending to bridge financing, this conversation offers actionable advice for investors at every stage.     You can connect with me at: My website: JamesNelson.com LinkedIn: JamesNelsonNYC Instagram: JamesNelsonNYC Twitter: JamesNelsonNYC My Forbes.com articles: Forbes.com/sites/jamesnelson

In our third week of Commercial Real Estate Month we dig into CMBS with one of the sector's early partcipants, Joe Iacono of Crescit

Episode Title: Post-Thanksgiving: Politics, Markets, and Real Estate Opportunities Episode Summary: In this week's episode of Money Moves, the team dives into a range of topics, from post-election developments and market updates to intriguing insights on real estate and crypto. After a Thanksgiving recap, the hosts discuss President Biden's controversial pardon of Hunter Biden and its implications, Trump's policy stances, and the outlook for 2025's financial markets. They also explore the surge in Americans looking to move abroad, analyze commercial real estate challenges, and share opportunities in volatile markets. Tune in for a mix of political analysis, market strategies, and actionable investment insights. Time-Stamped Highlights: [00:00] – Thanksgiving Recap Hosts share their holiday highlights, wine selections, and family moments. Lighthearted conversation on Thanksgiving debates at the dinner table. [03:00] – Biden's Pardon of Hunter Biden President Biden's decade-long pardon of Hunter Biden sparks controversy. Discussion on hypocrisy claims and political fallout. Potential implications for Trump's future pardons and legal moves. [09:30] – Trump's Policy Moves and Market Impact Updates on Trump's cabinet picks and global trade stances. Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on BRICS countries. Analysis of how Trump's “Art of the Deal” negotiation style influences markets. [15:00] – Political Unity and Key Collaborations Bernie Sanders collaborates with Trump's team on capping credit card interest rates and Pentagon audits. Potential for bipartisan cooperation in the coming administration. [20:00] – Market and Economic Updates Insights on inflation data, unemployment expectations, and non-farm payroll reports. Expectations for Fed's December rate cuts and their market implications. Hosts forecast a 10-12% growth in the S&P 500 for 2025. [27:00] – Real Estate Insights Residential real estate: Pending home sales climb 2% in October with notable growth in the West. Commercial real estate: Office CMBS delinquency rates hit a 10-year high, reflecting market pressures. Opportunities in distressed commercial assets and repurposing strategies for future growth. [35:00] – Crypto and 24/7 Market Trading Bitcoin nears $95,000, and altcoins gain momentum. Discussion on the potential introduction of 24/7 stock market trading. Benefits and challenges of continuous trading, drawing comparisons to the crypto market. [42:00] – Investment Mindsets and Opportunities Reinforcement of long-term investment principles: Stay invested, seek opportunities. The “bull market somewhere” mantra holds true for stocks and real estate. How proactive investors can find value in volatile markets. Key Quotes: “The best time to buy real estate is always yesterday.” “Volatility is the price you pay for reward in investing.” “There's always a bull market somewhere—you just need to find it.” Links and Resources Mentioned: Federal Reserve: Upcoming rate decisions and inflation data analysis. Articles on Biden's pardon and Trump's trade policy. Recent commercial real estate data from the CMBS market. Crypto market updates and altcoin trends. Calls to Action: Stay Informed: Subscribe to the Money Moves podcast for weekly insights on markets, real estate, and personal finance. Join the Community: Connect with like-minded investors in the Wise Investor Collective Mastermind. Follow Us: Stay updated with the latest market and investment news on our social media channels. Next Episode Teaser: Tune in next week as the team explores the latest Federal Reserve decisions, how geopolitical shifts are impacting the market, and strategies to stay ahead in volatile times. Episode Sponsored By: Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/ MY FIRST 50K!: Visit https://wiseinvestorcollective.com/ and submit your application to join!

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture As the fiat currency breaks down stores will up prices as the stock runs out. Credit card debt continues to rise, this is destroying the people in this country. Debt levels are reaching a point of no return. Delinquency rates on CBMS spiked. BRICS are trapped, Trump looking for a Crypto Czar. The [DS] just showed the people their true colors. They lie to the people, the do the opposite of what they promised they weren't going to do. Joe Biden just exposed the DOJ saying they selectively targeted his son. So does this mean that the DOJ is corrupt. This is why the patriots never charged anyone, because Biden and the [DS] would have pardoned them all. Soon, justice is coming.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/WallStreetApes/status/1863266679280504973  prices will start to shoot up to $1.20 “They're gonna start incorporating all these all over. Yeah, so it's pretty crazy. I'll come back later on in the day and you'll see this go up and down in price. You'll see it go as low as like 89 cents, which is pretty crazy” Welcome to dystopia https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1863588179095228570   https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1863365027010359437   loan debt. The highest average federal student loan balance per borrower is in Washington, D.C. at $54,795. This is followed by Maryland, Georgia, and Virginia at $43,692, $42,026, and $40,137, respectively. How is this debt going to be paid off? https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1863291580662067623  FASTER pace than during the 2008 Financial Crisis. This puts the office CMBS delinquency rate on track to exceed a record of 10.7% seen in 2012. Meanwhile, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate has risen from 4.6% to 6.4% over the last 12 months, the highest since 2020. The commercial real estate crisis is accelerating.   https://twitter.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1863574285408723239   returned 57%, almost 3 times less than the Magnificent 7. As a result, Magnificent 7 stocks now reflect a near-record 31% of the S&P 500. To put this into perspective, the Magnificent 7's market cap is ~$16 trillion, more than Germany, Canada, the UK, and France's stock markets COMBINED. Truly mind-blowing numbers. Trump and BRICS: Breaking China's Bank and Making Xi Lose Face Xi Jinping wants to bypass the U.S. dollar in international trade, but President Trump doesn't want him to—and Trump will get his way. Xi's first choice is for the world to adopt the Chinese yuan as a trade and reserve currency. Although officially recognized as an international currency and included in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Special Drawing Rights basket, the yuan has failed to gain widespread adoption for trade or as a reserve currency. This is true even among BRICS partners and heavily indebted countries like Cambodia. Currently, the yuan accounts for only 2.3% of global foreign currency reserves and 3% of all trade settlements. Many articles feature headlines suggesting that the yuan accounts for 26% of global trade. However, this figure actually refers to Chinese trade, not global trade. A significant portion of this trade is with Russia, a country barred from using U.S. dollars. Another widely cited statistic is that the yuan makes up 4.74% of “global transactions,” but this figure does not reflect trade settlement exclusively. Instead, it represents a mix of various uses, not just trade. Overall, the yuan's role in global trade remains modest, primarily limited to transactions between Russia and China.

A) Three ThingsOffice CMBS Delinquency Rates Spike AgainBlack Friday Sales Set RecordsSEC Officially Approves 24 Hour Stock ExchangeB) Respect YourselfC) AI Bot PIPS Pick of the DayTrade while you sleep and across time zones with Arbitrage Trade AssistVisit arbitragetrade.com We are not financial advisors. We offer an AI Algorithm Service named PIPS at ArbitrageTrade.com#new, #breakingnews, #foryou, #news, #Trending, #CMBS, #CommercialRE, #Delinquencies, #BlackFriday, #SEC, #24XSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/arbitrage. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On the second part of a two-part roundtable, our panel gives its 2025 preview for the housing and mortgage landscape, the US Treasury yield curve and currency markets.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. This is part two of our special roundtable discussion on what's ahead for the global economy and markets in 2025.Today we will cover what is ahead for government bonds, currencies, and housing. I'm joined by Matt Hornbach, our Chief Macro Strategist; James Lord, Global Head of Currency and Emerging Market Strategy; Jay Bacow, our co-head of Securitized Product Strategy; and Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Product Strategy.It's Tuesday, November 19th, at 10am in New York.Matt, I'd like to go to you first. 2024 was a fascinating year for government bond yields globally. We started with a deeply inverted US yield curve at the beginning of the year, and we are ending the year with a much steeper curve – with much of that inversion gone. We have seen both meaningful sell offs and rallies over the course of the year as markets negotiated hard landing, soft landing, and no landing scenarios.With the election behind us and a significant change of policy ahead of us, how do you see the outlook for global government bond yields in 2025?Matt Hornbach: With the US election outcome known, global rate markets can march to the beat of its consequences. Central banks around the world continue to lower policy rates in our economist baseline projection, with much lower policy rates taking hold in their hard landing scenario versus higher rates in their scenarios for re-acceleration.This skew towards more dovish outcomes alongside the baseline for lower policy rates than captured in current market prices ultimately leads to lower government bond yields and steeper yield curves across most of the G10 through next year. Summarizing the regions, we expect treasury yields to move lower over the forecast horizon, helped by 75 [basis points] worth of Fed rate cuts, more than markets currently price.We forecast 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3 and 3.75 per cent by the middle of next year and ending the year just above 3.5 per cent.Our economists are forecasting a pause in the easing cycle in the second half of the year from the Fed. That would leave the Fed funds rate still above the median longer run dot.The rationale for the pause involves Fed uncertainty over the ultimate effects of tariffs and immigration reform on growth and inflation.We also see the treasury curve bull steepening throughout the forecast horizon with most of the steepening in the first half of the year, when most of the fall in yields occur.Finally, on break even inflation rates, we see five- and 10-year break evens tightening slightly by the middle of 2025 as inflation risks cool. However, as the Trump administration starts implementing tariffs, break evens widen in our forecast with the five- and 10-year maturities reaching 2.55 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively by the end of next year.As such, we think real yields will lead the bulk of the decline in nominal yields in our forecasting with the 10-year real yield around 1.45 per cent by the middle of next year; and ending the year at 1.15 per cent.Vishy Tirupattur: That's very helpful, Matt. James, clearly the incoming administration has policy choices, and their sequencing and severity will have major implications for the strength of the dollar that has rallied substantially in the last few months. Against this backdrop, how do you assess 2025 to be? What differences do you expect to see between DM and EM currency markets?James Lord: The incoming administration's proposed policies could have far-reaching impacts on currency markets, some of which are already being reflected in the price of the dollar today. We had argued ahead of the election that a Republican sweep was probably the most bullish dollar outcome, and we are now seeing that being reflected.We do think the dollar rally continues for a little bit longer as markets price in a higher likelihood of tariffs being implemented against trading partners and there being a risk of additional deficit expansion in 2025. However, we don't really see that dollar strength persisting for long throughout 2025.So, I think that is – compared to the current debate, compared to the current market pricing – a negative dollar catalyst that should get priced into markets.And to your question, Vishy, that there will be differences with EM and also within EM as well. Probably the most notable one is the renminbi. We have the renminbi as the weakest currency within all of our forecasts for 2025, really reflecting the impact of tariffs.We expect tariffs against China to be more consequential than against other countries, thus requiring a bigger adjustment on the FX side. We see dollar China, or dollar renminbi ending next year at 7.6. So that represents a very sharp divergence versus dollar yen and the broader DXY moves – and is a consequence of tariffs.And that does imply that the Fed's broad dollar index only has a pretty modest decline next year, despite the bigger move in the DXY. The rest of Asia will likely follow dollar China more closely than dollar yen, in our view, causing AXJ currencies to generally underperform; versus CMEA and Latin America, which on the whole do a bit better.Vishy Tirupattur: Jay, in contrast to corporate credit, mortgage spreads are at or about their long-term average levels. How do you expect 2025 to pan out for mortgages? What are the key drivers of your expectations, and which potential policy changes you are most focused on?Jay Bacow: As you point out, mortgage spreads do look wide to corporate spreads, but there are good reasons for that. We all know that the Fed is reducing their holdings of mortgages, and they're the largest holder of mortgages in the world.We don't expect Fed balance sheet reduction of mortgages to change, even if they do NQT, as is our forecast in the first quarter of 2025. When they NQT, we expect mortgage runoff to continue to go into treasuries. What we do expect to change next year is that bank demand function will shift. We are working under the assumption that the Basel III endgame either stalls under the next administration or gets released in a way that is capital neutral. And that's going to free up excess capital for banks and reduce regulatory uncertainty for them in how they deploy the cash in their portfolios.The one thing that we've been waiting for is this clarity around regulations. When that changes, we think that's going to be a positive, but it's not just banks returning to the market.We think that there's going to be tailwinds from overseas investors that are going to be hedging out their FX risks as the Fed cuts rates, and the Bank of Japan hikes, so we expect more demand from Japanese life insurance companies.A steeper yield curve is going to be good for REIT demand. And these buyers, banks, overseas REITs, they typically buy CUSIPs, and that's going to help not just from a demand side, but it's going to help funding on mortgages improve as well. And all of those things are going to take mortgage spreads tighter, and that's why we are bullish.I also want to mention agency CMBS for a moment. The technical pressure there is even better than in single family mortgages. The supply story is still constrained, but there is no Fed QT in multifamily. And then also the capital that's going to be available for banks from the deregulation will allow them – in combination with the portfolio layer hedging – to add agency CMBS in a way that they haven't really been adding in the last few years. So that could take spreads tighter as well.Now, Vishy, you also mentioned policy changes. We think discussions around GSE reform are likely to become more prevalent under the new administration.And we think that given that improved capitalization, depending on the path of their earnings and any plans to raise capital, we could see an attempt to exit conservatorship during this administration.But we will simply state our view that any plan that results in a meaningful change to the capital treatment – or credit risk – to the investors of conventional mortgages is going to be too destabilizing for the housing finance markets to implement. And so, we don't think that path could go forward.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Jay. Jim, it was a challenging year for the housing market with historically high levels of unaffordability and continued headwinds of limited supply. How do you see 2025 to be for the US housing market? And going beyond housing, what is your outlook for the opportunity set in securitized credit for 2025?James Egan: For the housing market, the 2025 narrative is going to be one about absolute level versus the direction and rate of change. For instance, Vishy, you mentioned affordability. Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of September, but it's also true that they're down roughly a hundred basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023 and we're forecasting pretty healthy decreases in the 10-year Treasury throughout 2025. So, we expect affordability to improve over the coming year. Supply? It remains near historic lows, but it's been increasing year to date.So similar to the affordability narrative, it's more challenged than it's been in decades; but it's also less challenged than it was a year ago.So, what does all this mean for the housing market as we look through 2025? Despite the improvements in affordability, sales volumes have been pretty stagnant this year. Total volumes – so existing plus new volumes – are actually down about 3 per cent year to date. And look, that isn't unusual. It typically takes about a year for sales volumes to pick up when you see this kind of significant affordability improvement that we've witnessed over the past year, even with the recent backup in mortgage rates.And that means we think we're kind of entering that sweet spot for increased sales now. We've seen purchase applications turn positive year over year. We've seen pending home sales turn positive year over year. That's the first time both of those things have happened since 2021. But when we think about how much sales 2025, we think it's going to be a little bit more curtailed. There are a whole host of reasons for that – but one of them the lock in effect has been a very popular talking point in the housing market this year. If we look at just the difference between the effective mortgage rate on the outstanding universe and where you can take out a mortgage rate today, the universe is still over 200 basis points out of the money.To the upside, you're not going to get 10 per cent growth there, but you're going to get more than 5 per cent growth in new home sales. And what I really want to emphasize here is – yes, mortgage rates have increased recently. We expect them to come down in 2025; but even if they don't, we don't think there's a lot of room for downside to existing home sales from here.There's some level of housing activity that has to happen, regardless of where mortgage rates or affordability are. We think we're there. Turnover measured as the number of transactions – existing transactions – as a share of the outstanding housing market is lower now than it was during the great financial crisis. It's as low as it's been in a little bit over 40 years. We just don't think it can fall that much further from here.But as we go through 2025, we do think it dips negative. We have a negative 2 per cent HPA call next year, not significantly down. We don't think there's a lot of room to the downside given the healthy foundation, the low supply, the strong credit standards in the housing market. But there is a little bit of negativity next year before home prices reaccelerate.This leaves us generically constructive on securitized products across the board. Given how much of the capital structure has flattened this year, we think CLO AAAs actually offer the best value amongst the debt tranches there. We think non-QM triple AAAs and agency MBS is going to tighten. They look cheap to IG corporates. Consumer ABS, we also think still looks pretty cheap to IG corporates. Even in the CMBS pace, we think there's opportunities. CMBS has really outperformed this year as rates have come down. Now our bull bear spread differentials are much wider in CMBS than they are elsewhere, but in our base case, conduit BBB minuses still offer attractive value.That being said, if we're going to go down the capital structure, our favorite expression in the securitized credit space is US CLO equity.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Jay and Jim, and also Matt and James.We'll close it out here. As a reminder, if you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In the latest episode of Deconstruct, TRD's Suzannah Cavanaugh finds out how loan specialists fix bad debt – or at least try to – by talking with loan workout specialists Rob Verrone and Job Warshaw of Iron Hound. Verrone works with sponsors to hash out modifications for distressed CMBS debt, and Warshaw brings perspective from the other side of the table — he spent three decades heading up negotiations for special servicer LNR Partners.

In this episode of the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast, host Stewart Foley, CFA, sits down with Jake Remley, CFA, senior portfolio manager at Income Research & Management, for a deep dive into the world of structured securities. Jake brings his 20-plus years of experience in securitization to the discussion, explaining complex concepts like "zombie securitizations" and how to identify tail risks in the evolving landscape of asset-backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).   Jake shares insights on avoiding potential pitfalls in structured credit investments and emphasizes the importance of bottom-up analysis in navigating complex securitizations. With real-life examples like the recent write-down of 1740 Broadway, the episode offers practical guidance for institutional investors aiming to understand securitized debt structures and optimize risk-adjusted returns. For those keen on fixed income, this episode sheds light on the nuances of structured credit and its implications for portfolio management.

In this episode of the InsuranceAUM.com podcast, host Stewart Foley, CFA, sits down with Adriano Taylor Escribano, Principal Senior Quantitative Analyst at Jennison, for a compelling discussion on the role of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in insurance company portfolios. Adriano shares his fascinating career journey, starting with his early days working in a college kitchen to his expertise today in structured products. He walks listeners through the complex landscape of agency and non-agency CMBS, highlighting their importance in commercial real estate (CRE) lending and their strategic place in insurance portfolios.   The conversation explores key aspects of CMBS, including the differences between Freddie K, DUS, and Ginnie Mae project loans, and the impact of interest rate volatility on the market. Adriano provides expert insight into the current trends in CMBS, including the shift from 10-year to 5-year conduit issuances, and discusses how the Fed's recent rate decisions could affect the market moving forward. This episode is a must-listen for insurance investment professionals looking to deepen their understanding of CMBS and its evolving role in portfolio construction.

This week, before 45,000 dockworkers at 36 American ports went on strike, Fed Chair Powell stated that the U.S. economy is in solid shape and the Fed intends to keep it that way... In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the news of the week, including the port strike, Fed speak, and macro figures like jobs and PMI, and explain the impact on CRE. We also share our latest data for CMBS and bank CRE loan delinquencies, and examine the immediate impact of Hurricane Helene on CRE. Tune in now. Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this Topical Tuesday episode, I spoke with Brian Burke who is the President & CEO of Praxis Capital, Inc. Brian has acquired over 800 million dollars' worth of real estate over a 30-year career including over 4,000 multifamily units and more than 700 single-family homes. He is also the author of “The Hands-Off Investor: An Insider's Guide to Investing in Passive Real Estate Syndications”.  Be sure to tune in if you're interested in learning about: The rise in distress across different lending sectors, with CMBS loans seeing notable increases. Regional multifamily opportunities, highlighting short-term potential in the Midwest and long-term value in the Sunbelt. The challenges and evolving strategies in value-add multifamily investing. Insights on vertical integration in property management and its complexities. To your success, Tyler Lyons Resources mentioned in the episode: Brian Burke Website Instagram Book Interested in investing with Asym Capital? Check out our webinar.   Please note that investing in private placement securities entails a high degree of risk, including illiquidity of the investment and loss of principal. Please refer to the subscription agreement for a discussion of risk factors. Tired of scrambling for capital?  Check out our new FREE webinar -  How to Ensure You Never Scramble for Capital Again (The 3 Capital-Raising Secrets). Click Here to register.   CFC Podcast Facebook Group

Lonnie Hendry is the Chief Product Officer at Trepp, leading a global team responsible for developing and commercializing Trepp's suite of CRE, CMBS, and CLO products. Since joining in 2019, Lonnie has spearheaded product innovation and business growth, launching multiple successful offerings that help clients achieve strategic goals. He also co-hosts The TreppWire Podcast, a popular CRE podcast with over 1.1 million listens. Recognized for his industry insights, Lonnie is frequently cited by major publications like The Wall Street Journal and Commercial Observer. With 22 years of experience in the commercial real estate industry, Lonnie's expertise spans multifamily management, leasing, brokerage, and appraisal. He is also an adjunct faculty member at Texas Tech University, teaching real estate courses and mentoring future professionals. Lonnie holds a Master's in Real Estate from the University of Texas at Arlington and serves on several advisory boards, contributing to industry leadership and education. Keywords commercial real estate, technology, passive investing, market trends, distressed properties, due diligence, multifamily investments, real estate education, investment strategies, CRE insights Summary In this episode, Randy Smith interviews Lonnie Hendry, Chief Product Officer at TREP, who shares his extensive experience in commercial real estate and the evolving role of technology in the industry. They discuss the cyclical nature of real estate markets, the importance of due diligence for passive investors, and the opportunities presented by distressed properties. Lonnie emphasizes the need for investors to educate themselves and ask the right questions to navigate the current market landscape effectively. The conversation also highlights the resilience of the commercial real estate sector and offers insights into future trends and investment strategies. Chapters 00:00 - Introduction to Lonnie Hendry and His Background 02:34 - The Intersection of Technology and Commercial Real Estate 04:43 - Market Trends and the Cyclical Nature of Real Estate 09:22 - Understanding Distressed Properties and Buying Opportunities 12:51 - Challenges in Turning Around Distressed Assets 17:09 - Due Diligence for Passive Investors 23:38 - Positive Outlooks and Market Resilience 29:35 - Advice for Passive Investors in Today's Market 36:39 - Educational Resources and Final Thoughts RANDY SMITH Connect with our host, Randy Smith, for more educational content or to discuss investment opportunities in the real estate syndication space at www.impactequity.net, https://www.linkedin.com/in/randallsmith or on Instagram at @randysmithinvestor

The Fed has made its first rate cut. What does it mean for fixed income markets? Listen to our latest podcast with Douglas Gimple as he breaks down the implications for mortgages, ABS, and investment opportunities. CMBS or commercial mortgage-backed securities are fixed-income investment products that are backed by mortgages on commercial properties rather than residential real estate. OAS or option-adjusted spread is the measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is then adjusted to take into account embedded options. The views expressed are those of the speakers as of September 2024 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Adam Behlman, Adrienne Coyle, and Natan Bresler of Starwood Property Trust (Starwood). The Starwood team walks us through the background of their firm and the launch of Starwood Solutions. We talk through CMBS market trends and insights on how this market compares to others that we have seen over the years. We also discuss commercial real estate cycles, recent Trepp data, and a sense of optimism in the industry. Episode Notes: - Starwood Background (1:14) - Comparing This Year to Last Year (9:25) - Thoughts on Multifamily (18:05) - Solution-side of the Starwood Business (23:00) - Data on Bank CRE Exposure (27:00) - What We're Seeing in the Market (33:45) - Discussing Debt Yield, Cap Rates & Underwriting (39:42) - Shoutouts (44:16) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss the Fed's announcement to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, our initial reactions, and how this could potentially impact the CRE market. But we are not out of the woods yet – we also break down several credit stories in the office, retail, and lodging sectors, including recent trading alerts about more loans being transferred to servicing. Tune in now. Episode Notes: - Fed Rate Interest Cut (00:30) - Office Stories: Valuation Reductions, Special Servicing Moves (18:38) - Amazon Back to Office (27:32) - Big Lots Filing for Bankruptcy (33:40) - Retail News (36:51) - Lodging Stories (40:57) - Upcoming Research and Reports (44:58) - Shoutouts (47:25) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Office buildings continue to struggle in the post-pandemic era, but our Chief Fixed Income Strategist notes that other properties have turned a corner. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about how the challenges facing the US commercial real estate markets have evolved and talk about where they are headed next.It's Wednesday, Sep 11th at 10 am in New York.Over the last year and half, the challenges of commercial real estate, or CRE in short, have been periodically in the spotlight. The last time we discussed this issue here was in the first quarter of this year. That was in the aftermath of loan losses announced by a regional bank that primarily focused on rent-stabilized multifamily and CRE lending in the New York metropolitan area. At the same time, lenders and investors in Japan, Germany and Canada also reported sizable credit losses and write-down related to US commercial real estate.At that time, we had said that CRE issues should be scrutinized through the lenses of lenders and property types; and that saw meaningful challenges in both – in particular, regional banks as lenders and office as a property type.Rolling the calendar forward, where do things stand now?Focusing on the lenders first, there is some good news. While regional bank challenges from their CRE exposures have not gone away, they are not getting any worse. That means incremental reserves for CRE losses have been below what we had feared. Our economists' expectations of Fed's rate cuts on the back of their soft-landing thesis, gives us the conviction that lower rates should be an incremental benefit from a credit quality perspective for banks because it alleviates pressure on debt service coverage ratios for borrowers. Lower rates also give banks more room to work with their borrowers for longer by providing extensions. For banks, this means while CRE net charge-offs could rise in the near term, they are likely to stabilize in 2025.In other words, even though the fundamental deterioration in terms of the level of delinquencies and losses may be ahead, the rate of change seems to have clearly turned. In that sense, as long as the rate cuts that we anticipate materialize, the worst of the CRE issues for regional banks may now be behind us.From the lens of property types, it is important not to paint all property types with the same brushstroke of negativity. Office lots remain the pain point. Looking at the payoff rates in CMBS pools gives us a granular look at the performance across different property types.Overall, 76 per cent of the CRE loans that matured over the past 12 months paid off, which is a pretty healthy rate. However, in office loans, the payoff rate was just 43 per cent. Other property types were clearly much better. For example, 100 per cent of industrial property loans, 96 per cent of multi-family loans, 89 per cent of hotel loans that matured in the last 12 months paid off. The payoff rates in retail property loans were a bit lower but still pretty healthy at 76 per cent, in clear contrast to office properties. Delinquency rates across property types also show a similar trend with office loans driving the lion's share of the overall increase in delinquencies.In short, the secular headwinds facing the office market have not dissipated. Office property valuations, leasing arrangements and financing structures must adjust to the post-pandemic realities of office work. While this shift has begun, more is needed. So, there is really no quick resolution for these challenges which we think are likely to persist. This is especially true in central business district offices that require significant capex for upgrades or repurposing for use as residential housing.Overall, we stick to our contention that commercial real estate risks present a persistent challenge but are unlikely to become systemic for the economy. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen to this and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode of the Keeping It Real Estate Show, co-host Mike Roeder breaks down the latest on CMBS delinquencies and the surge in commercial real estate foreclosures. With delinquency rates rising over 5% and foreclosures rising to levels not seen in nearly a decade, Mike explores the key drivers behind this trend, including high interest rates and the slow return of workers to offices. Learn how these distressed properties are creating unique investment opportunities and what savvy investors need to know to capitalize on the current market conditions in 2024 and beyond. Whether you're an experienced operator or new to commercial real estate, this episode will provide valuable insights into navigating the challenges and opportunities in today's market. Don't miss out—tune in now to discover strategies for turning distress into success! Visit www.granitetowersequitygroup.com/invest to join our email list and stay updated on our latest investment opportunities. Thanks for listening! Keeping it Real Estate is brought to you by Granite Towers Equity Group, helping investors create passive income through multifamily real estate. To get in touch with the founders of Granite Towers, Mike Roeder and Dan Brisse, visit https://www.granitetowersequitygroup.com/contact

Office Sector Woes Part Seven - The pressure mounts on office landlords and the break point is swiftly approaching as we enter Defcon 2. Expiring CMBS loans coupled with expiring leases leads to an increase of over 30% of CMBS loans hitting special servicing in offices experiencing low occupancy. Additionally, post-Labor Day stats prove that work-from-home is here to stay spelling more trouble for the office sector. Tune in to this special look at the challenges facing the office sector - challenges that will lead to a tremendous buying opportunity.   Please give us a thumbs up and subscribe. We track commercial real estate to you can focus on your business.

A) Three ThingsCommercial Mortgage Bonds A Disaster?Not A Boozy SummerAide To NY Governor Linked To Chinese GovernmentB) Parabens in Your Products: Risky or Reliable?C) AI Bot PIPS Pick of the DayTrade while you sleep and across time zones with Arbitrage Trade AssistVisit arbitragetrade.com Not a Financial Advisor. We offer an AI Algorithm Service named PIPS at ArbitrageTrade.com#new, #breakingnews, #foryou, #news, #Trending, #JOLTS, #JobReports, #SP500, #NASDAQ, #DJI, #ConstellationBrands, #CMBS, #CRE, #Booze, #NY, #GovHochul, #GovCuomo, #ParabensSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/arbitrage. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Shiloh Bates speaks with John Timperio, the Co-Head of Dechert's Global Finance practice, about CLO regulation in this episode of The CLO Investor podcast.

In this episode of the podcast, credit analyst Curtis Elkington provides a comprehensive overview of the $50 trillion global commercial real estate market. He covers the current headwinds facing various property sectors, such as pandemic-induced challenges in the office sector and touches on the surprising resilience of the retail segment. Elkington sheds light on the complexities of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market and details the credit analysis process his team uses to evaluate potential investments with examples. Key points from this episode: • Over the past four years, commercial real estate as an asset class has faced potentially the most significant of headwinds, most notably the pandemic and the rise in interest rates.  • While the pandemic had a different impact on each property sector within commercial real estate, higher rates had a much more uniform impact across the various industries. • The overall size of the commercial real estate market, which includes multifamily, office, retail, and industrial properties, is massive. In 2023, Savills estimated the total global property value was $50 trillion, of which the U.S. is the largest component. • Vacancy and capitalization rates are the two primary metrics used to assess the health of the commercial real estate sectors. In office, both vacancy and capitalization rates have increased significantly since 2019. • According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the 25 largest commercial banks have ~$860 billion in commercial real estate loans, which is only 6% of their collective assets. All the other banks outside of the top 25 have $2 trillion in commercial real estate loans, but that accounts for 30% of their total assets. • Over the past six months, the risk-reward on the credit side for several real estate companies was unattractive in all scenarios. • Some market participants believe that upwards of $100 billion, or 15%, of U.S. CMBS is currently mis-rated. • The credit team does two main things in its intensive analysis credit review. They assign a Mawer credit rating that's tied to valuation, and they establish a margin of safety that's tied to downside production. • With commercial real estate, just like any potential investment, the team reviews each issue and issuer on a case-by-case basis following a thorough and rigorous process before committing investor capital. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: Curtis Elkington, CFA, Mawer Credit Analyst For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/skyscrapers-and-storefronts-insights-on-the-commercial-real-estate-market-in-2024-ep165 This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram  - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe debt level has grown to an unsustainable level for the people, as time goes the people will not be able to survive. The system is breaking apart and no matter what the Biden admin does it will fail. The [CB] will not be able to handle the economic storm that his approaching. The [DS] is ready to make their next move. They have moved [KH] into position but soon she will be removed from the board. The next player will most likely be [BO] or [MO]. Trump has now returned to X, timing is everything. We are now entering the 4th quarter and all roads lead to Obama. It's going to get bumpy so faster your seat belts.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1821900447856341046 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1822711419122618368   bankruptcies have more than DOUBLED in just 2 years. This comes after many companies have struggled to make their debt payments as the Fed raised interest rates to the highest level in 23 years. Now, markets are pricing in 50 basis point rate cuts as the US economy is on the verge of a recession. How is this a "soft landing?" https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1822980127845720374   decreased by ~22 points over the last 2 years as the labor market has materially slowed down. In the past, such a rapid decline in consumer sentiment about jobs has ALWAYS coincided with a recession. Meanwhile, the ratio of job openings per unemployed worker fell from 2.0 in 2022 to 1.2 in June 2024. The labor market is no longer tight. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1823003820462313612   2008 Financial Crisis. A top AAA-rated CMBS experienced a $40 million loss in May for the first time since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Commercial real estate bankruptcies are coming. Kamala Harris launched IRS harassment of tipped workers in 2022 through her tie-breaking vote for the Inflation Reduction Act  remember the badly misnamed Inflation Reduction Act, the government spendathon which brought us so much of the inflation we have now? It was in that bill that 80,000 newly minted IRS agents would be hired, supposedly to go after all the billionaire tax cheats out there. The U.S. billionaire count, according to Forbes magazine, is 813. Kamala played the key role in getting that law passed. https://twitter.com/bonchieredstate/status/1822609692910137823?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1822609692910137823%7Ctwgr%5E7d1332bf4d2ac649cc45223f47047ffaef6a4968%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanthinker.com%2Fblog%2F2024%2F08%2Fkamala_harris_launched_harassment_of_tip_workers_in_2022_through_the_inflation_reduction_act.html   And with just 813 billionaires to harass, who did those 80,000 go after? That's right, the little guys, especially the ones who are paid in tips. The Wall Street Journal's editorial page found a Treasury report indicating that middle class taxpayers were getting the brunt of the IRS offensive, which would also include some tip workers. Tips, after all, are easy pickings for underreporting owing to the lack of paper trail:  The most recent data suggests the IRS is still focused on the middle class. As of last summer, 63% of new audits targeted taxpayers with income of less than $200,000. It gets worse, and here is where the second half of McDonald's tweet is described: With all that new federal money brought to them by Kamala Harris's tie-breaking vote, tip workers were the special little target of the IRS's shiny new army of auditors.

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss the Fed's decision to hold rates steady and what the future of interest rate decisions will mean for CRE performance. We also break down if it is too soon to call a bottom for the market. We share more data about insurance costs, the latest CMBS delinquency figures, and stories for retail, office, and lodging.  Tune in now. Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this episode, Steve Fretzin and Mark Silverman discuss:Building client relationships from the start of your career.Bringing your full, authentic self to your client relationships. Being forward with those you've served when asking for referrals. The art of bringing in new work from current clients.  Key Takeaways:Even when you're crazy busy, it is key to reach out to a client or post on LinkedIn or send a text to connect with those in your network. Everybody wins in referrals when there is a transferral of trust. Be honest about where you can add value and where, perhaps, you aren't the best fit for your clients.Find what works for you and stay consistent with it. You are running a business and want to maintain that forward momentum.  "The worst thing you can do, and what will tank your relationship and career quickly, is to sell something that you have no business doing." —  Mark Silverman Read more from Steve at Above the Law: AboveTheLaw.com/tag/Steve-Fretzin/ Thank you to our Sponsors!Ready to go from good to GOAT? Attend PIMCOM the inaugural personal injury mastermind conference Sept 15-17, 2024. Use promo code BeThatLawyer to get $200.00 off at https://www.pimcon.org/Get Staffed Up: https://getstaffedup.com/bethatlawyer/Lawmatics: https://www.lawmatics.com/bethatlawyer/ Episode References: Matt Campobasso: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mrc1921/Sales Free Selling Audiobook: https://www.amazon.com/Sales-Free-Selling-Death-Sales-Methodology/dp/B0D9HWPX6W About Mark Silverman: Mark serves as Locke Lord's CMBS Special Servicer Team Leader. When borrowers and guarantors fail to meet their obligations, financial institutions, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) special servicers and other companies look to Mark to enforce those commitments, in or out of the courtroom. Mark frames and resolves issues involving creditors' rights, loan workouts, bankruptcy and loan enforcement. He advises large, midsized, and small banks; financial institutions; and financial technology companies across the country, as well as the nation's largest CMBS special servicers. Connect with Mark Silverman:  Website: https://www.lockelord.com/professionals/s/silverman-mark-aLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marksilverman3/ :  Connect with Steve Fretzin:LinkedIn: Steve FretzinTwitter: @stevefretzinInstagram: @fretzinsteveFacebook: Fretzin, Inc.Website: Fretzin.comEmail: Steve@Fretzin.comBook: Legal Business Development Isn't Rocket Science and more!YouTube: Steve FretzinCall Steve directly at 847-602-6911  Show notes by Podcastologist Chelsea Taylor-Sturkie Audio production by Turnkey Podcast Productions. You're the expert. Your podcast will prove it. 

Amid national political turbulence and big proposals for commercial real estate regulation, we wanted to dig into the implications of the latest data and major trends on CRE markets. In this episode, we discuss the American consumer and findings from the Fed Beige Book, large stories across the property types from recent CMBS data, "the largest CRE loan sale ever in US banking," and a rundown on rent control. Tune in now. Episode Notes: Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week's episode, we give a temperature check on the CRE market, as we cover bank stress testing, buying opportunities from dry powder, the latest CPI data, and new originations. We also share some big office lease stories, a bank earnings preview, an update on short-term rentals, multifamily and office loan-to-value data, and mall loan stories. And, we cover 7-Eleven's CMBS exposure, in honor of recording on 7/11. Tune in now. Episode Notes: - 7-Eleven (0:23) - Macro update: CPI and the Fed (3:35) - Buying opportunity in CRE: maturities and dry powder (8:09) - Big office leases (12:01) - Lease renewals (16:32) - Bank Earnings preview (19:05) - CMBS issuance and new originations (25:10) - Multifamily and office LTV (27:48) - Short-term rentals (30:07) - Mall tenants downsizing and loan extensions (38:50) - Shoutouts (44:06) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this episode today, 4th of July, Rohan and David discussed the following: 1. Holiday Atmosphere: They discussed the upcoming Independence Day holiday, noting the relaxed office environment and people already in vacation mode. (00:30) 2. Political Commentary: There was mention of recent presidential debates, with observations about Joe Biden's performance and the supportive role of his wife. (00:58) 3. Real Estate Market: They discussed specific issues in the real estate sector, focusing on the Hollywood Highland (now Ovation) shopping center facing financial challenges, including low occupancy and debt service coverage issues. (04:09) 4. CMBS and Financial Markets: They delved into Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) and concerns about the reliability of AAA ratings for bonds backed by office buildings, highlighting recent losses and the need for potential reforms. (06:32) 5. Economic Indicators: The conversation touched on economic indicators such as personal consumption expenditure rates and retail sales, suggesting a potential economic slowdown based on recent data. (22:40) 6. Corporate Developments: They mentioned corporate news, including Walgreens' plans to close stores and cut prices amid economic challenges. (25:07) Rohan and David also shared some fun and interesting stuffs (30:50) 1. Tv SHOWS and Films: They discussed the show called "Appalachian Outlaw" which depicts people in West Virginia involved in ginseng harvesting and the conflicts that arise from it. (31:47) Presumed Innocent: This is mentioned as a series starring Jake Gyllenhaal, possibly a remake of the Harrison Ford movie, which is about legal dramas. (33:38) John Gotti Movie: This is about John Gotti, where they reflect on how Gotti was perceived as a hero by some despite his criminal activities (30:50) Food and Restaurants: 4. Mangosteens: There's a discussion about freeze-dried mangosteens found at Sprouts, highlighting their delicious taste. (35:45) 5. Restaurants: A brief mention of Benny's Tacos in Westchester, known for its great tacos and chicken soup. (38:34) Overall, the conversation touches on real estate, politics, economics, entertainment, cultural observations, and personal tastes in food.

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the resurgence of major commercial real estate players and their capital allocation strategies. We provide the latest data on bank CRE loan and CMBS delinquencies, explore trends in the office SASB market, and share insights on office sales, including properties listed on auction sites. Tune in now. Episode Notes: Blackstone commit to deploy $65 billion dry powder (1:25) Malls into minicities (5:33) Superregional mall feud (9:02) Banks dumping real estate loans (13:50) Bank CRE loan performance and CMBS delinquencies (18:12) Mezzanine lender intervenes on Gas Company Tower (26:35) Online office auction (29:15) Large apartment acquisition (33:05) SASB office market (36:22) Shoutouts (43:35) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

This week, some of the biggest headlines came from overseas. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss if any moves by Canada and Europe will change anything for the Fed. We also put our professor hats on to provide some insight into delinquencies, foreclosures, modifications, and more. Stick around as we break down the stories we're tracking in office, retail, lodging, and mixed-use. Tune in now. This episode is sponsored by Marketplace: https://rimarketplace.com/?utm_source=credirect&utm_medium=podcast_paid&utm_campaign=june2024 Episode Notes: - Interest rates around the globe (0:23) - Informational technology outflows, Dollar Tree news, American dividend earnings (4:50) - CMBS delinquencies decline? (8:26) - CRE loan losses (11:54) - Office stories (15:27) - Foreclosures 101 (24:19) - Retail news (29:53) - Modification deep dive (33:20) - Mixed-use appraisal (43:37) - Shoutouts (45:15) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we tackle a mixed bag of data as Treasury Yields rise. As we approach new theses week over week, do you stick to the data or trust your gut? We also unpack our latest loan modification trends report, dive into the upcoming volume of office loan maturities, and explore recent transaction and CMBS stories across property types. Tune in now. This episode is sponsored by AEI Consultants: https://aeiconsultants.com/ Episode Notes: - Economic update: Treasury yields pushed higher (0:23) - Consumer confidence reading (6:48) - Loan modification trends (9:05) - Maturing office loans (13:10) - Office stories (21:55) - Retail news (32:31) - Lodging (39:50) - Multifamily transactions (43:39) - Industrial sale (46:30) - Shoutouts (47:42) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week's episode, we break down if anything will really change for the commercial real estate markets following the Fed's rate decision. We also dive into retail earnings, and specifically discuss some of the latest news for fast food chains. We share our latest CMBS delinquency rates and discuss what a negative headline means in the very dynamic world of CRE. Then, we run through stories for mixed-use, office, retail, industrial, and multifamily. Tune in now. Episode Notes: - Fed meeting, economic update - impact on CRE (0:23) - Retail earnings: fast food (9:40) - CMBS delinquency rates (15:55) - Office stories (19:00) - Mixed-use overview (25:01) - Multifamily stories (36:35) - Retail headlines (40:12) - Industrial (42:58) - Lodging (45:27) - Shoutouts (46:10) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp