The Political Notebook

What's next for Arizona and the country? *** Show notes: *** - Robert Robb column on Sinema and Haley: https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/sinema-haley-and-the-end-of-hope - Tim Steller column on Sinema: https://tucson.com/news/local/tim-stellers-column-sinemas-self-indulgent-senate-term-doomed-her/article_08ccdf9e-dbe5-11ee-8d05-cf89651b7f4e.html - Arizona Republic Editorial on Sinema: https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/editorial/2024/03/06/kyrsten-sinema-reelection-consequential-senate/72857151007/ - The Summit, hosted by Tucker Carlson (Kari Lake appearance starts at 8:24:44, after Nikki Haley's interview with Tucker): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuAGkW4KOEw

Will Lake have a pragmatic conservative opponent? What about the MAGA melee in congressional district 8?

Is the new right's critique of market capitalism any sounder than that of the left? Is it realistic for populist conservatives to beat liberals in seizing and exercising government power? *** Links: "In Defense of the American Free Market" -- The Optimistic American podcast -- Paul Johnson interviews Robert Robb Audio: https://optamerican.podbean.com/e/in-defense-of-the-american-free-market-robert-robb/ Video: https://youtu.be/BiSIOvTQhwU

Is there anything that can happen between now and the convention to shake his hold on primary voters? Should Trump opponents consolidate behind a single candidate? Should that be DeSantis?

Who gets the blame if there's a state government shutdown? Can there be a bipartisan approach to the housing shortage?

Is Hobbs going to govern as a moderate? Does Sinema have a chance as an independent? Will the Republican MAGA fever ever break?

Are there any legitimate arguments against Prop 308? How is the immigration issue playing generally in the 2022 election? *** Show Notes: *** Op-Ed by Fred DuVal: "Arizona doesn't have to be the SB 1070 state. Proposition 308 can right many wrongs" https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2022/10/11/prop-308-gives-dreamers-equal-opportunity-state-tuition/8199900001/

How will the failed referendum play in the 2022 election? What reforms of the current law might be considered? Are district and charter schools being treated fairly? *** Show notes: *** Robert Robb column: "Referendum failure dramatically changes the politics of universal private school vouchers." https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/the-political-notebook-93022 *** Billy Robb on state testing: "Proficiency and its discontents: Could you pass the AASA?" https://chollaexpress.substack.com/p/proficiency-and-its-discontents

All about water policy. Where does our water supply come from? Who has the rights to use water from the Colorado River? What happens as the drought gets worse? Do we need a new source of water, such as a desalination plant? *** Show notes: *** Robert Robb column (3/6/2022) https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2022/03/06/gov-doug-ducey-water-authority-isnt-even-half-baked/9365898002/ *** Grady Gammage Jr. response (3/8/2022) https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2022/03/08/we-have-time-but-we-need-move-now-big-water-projects/9417805002/

Is the Democratic party moving toward the center? Has Sinema helped or hurt Democratic prospects?

Can Republicans win in Arizona by increasing MAGA turnout? How much can states actually do to secure the border?

Is there any prospect of a counter-revolution to Trumpism in the Republican Party? How should Democrats approach the general election? What happens if the Trump slate wins the general?

How should the state address Covid-related learning losses? What effect are the January 6th hearings having? Links: - Robert Robb on Substack: (https://robertrobb.substack.com/) - Robert Robb post on Covid-related learning loss: (https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/the-political-notebook-72222) - Billy Robb on Substack (https://chollaexpress.substack.com/) - Arizona Agenda post on the Republican Party divide: (https://arizonaagenda.substack.com/p/the-daily-agenda-when-does-reconstruction) - Download the Substack App on your Apple device: (https://on.substack.com/p/substackapp) - Cheney Closing Statement At Select Committee's Eighth Public Hearing: (https://cheney.house.gov/2022/07/21/cheney-closing-statement-at-select-committees-eighth-public-hearing/)

Is there now a political space in GOP politics to challenge the big lie? Is Joe Manchin rescuing Mark Kelly? Subscribe to Robert Robb on Substack: https://robertrobb.substack.com/

Subscribe to Robert Robb on Substack: https://robertrobb.substack.com/ On this episode of the podcast, we talk about the new school voucher law in Arizona. How will the upcoming political fight play out? Also: Should Ducey endorse Robson?

Also: Should independent voters choose a Democratic or Republican ballot? Links: Arizona Agenda: What candidates for Gov, SOS and AG say about 2020 election (https://arizonaagenda.substack.com/p/cheatsheet-what-candidates-for-gov?s=r) Arizona Republic Editorial: Where's the choice? (https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/editorial/2022/06/05/arizona-primary-races-senate-governor-legislature-secretary-state-show-dysfunction/9706589002/) Robert Robb column: Arizona desperately needs a non-Trump GOP candidate (https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2022/06/05/arizona-desperately-needs-non-trump-gop-candidate-georgia-lesson/7487615001/) Arizona Mirror: Arizona's independents are largely powerless in primary elections (https://www.azmirror.com/2022/06/06/arizonas-independents-are-largely-powerless-in-primary-elections/) Abe Kwok column: Independent voters have a lot of power in Arizona's primary election – if they show up (https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/abekwok/2022/06/05/independent-voters-could-change-primary-election-if-they-show-up/7488913001/)

Will swing voters be more influenced by their dissatisfaction with the Biden administration or their antipathy toward Trump?

Will bad blood keep a grand bargain from being reached? Is Kari Lake unstoppable in the Republican primary?

A review of school choice in Arizona and a discussion of its future.

Why isn't any Republican candidate following the Youngkin path? Is there any chance for win-win policies in the Arizona legislature? Also: What Europe owes the Ukrainian people.

A conversation with Matt Beienburg about the value of American federalism. Can it be reclaimed? Robert Robb is pessimistic. Matt is more of an optimist. Matt Beienburg is the Director of Education Policy at the Goldwater Institute. He also serves as director of the institute's Van Sittert Center for Constitutional Advocacy. Here's a link to read Matt's article on federalism, discussed on the podcast: https://www.realclearpublicaffairs.com/articles/2021/11/17/its_time_to_reclaim_american_federalism_803955.html

How will the education issue play in Arizona's 2022 election? What are the prospects for backpack funding? Where in the heck is Arizona on income taxes?

Sinema as an independent? A new conservative party? Primary election reform?

From running as a conservative reformer to governing as a pragmatic problem solver to thumping the cultural issues on behalf of Republican governors nationally ... who is the authentic Ducey?

By funding the Arizona “audit” what do Trump conspiracy advocates expect? Can Ken Bennett make it semi-honest? Can any Republican candidate be trusted? Robert Robb columns for reference: On the difference between Michigan's election review and Arizona's farce https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2021/07/16/michigan-election-review-responsible-arizona-audit-farce/7983475002/ Trump visit spotlights continuing complicity of Arizona Republican leaders https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2021/07/28/trump-visit-spotlights-continuing-complicity-arizona-republican-leaders/5389925001/

An early grade for Biden. Sinema's filibuster pickle. Arizona Democratic prospects in 2022.

A discussion of the factors driving the teacher shortage in Arizona. For reference: https://chollaexpress.substack.com/p/why-is-there-a-teacher-shortage-in

Tax cuts or tax reform? Also: Can charter schools attract the support of Democrats?

Should Trump be impeached? How do Republicans deal with Trumpism from this point forward?

How alarmed should we be about Trump's attempts to overturn the election results? What will it mean for the future of the Republican Party -- both in Arizona and nationally?

Does Biden have a mandate other than not being a jerk? What happened to the blue wave -- nationally and in Arizona?

What are the consequences if Prop 208 passes? What are the consequences if Prop 208 fails? Also, do we need new ways to teach in a Covid environment?

A breakdown of the campaigns of Martha McSally and Mark Kelly. Also, a preview of the possible legal fights surrounding the 2020 election. Are judges helping or hurting the confidence that Americans will have in the results?

Should we trust the polls? Can Trump ride the law and order issue to an upset victory? Can McSally turn the tide on Kelly?

Discussion of propositions 207 and 208 on the November ballot.

Something a bit different. A collection of previously recorded conversations around the theme of congressional dysfunction and the imbalance of powers. Structural reforms, including the filibuster rule and term limits, as well as immediate calls to action.

Trump says he will substantially reduce troops in Afghanistan before the election. Will he? What will be the consequences? Plus key takeaways from the primary election. Is Schweikert in trouble?

-After Trump's tweet about delaying the election, Republicans swiftly rejected the notion. Is this a sign of a larger shift? -Covid-19 in Arizona: Should there be firm metrics for reopening, particularly for schools? -Arizona primaries: What will Daniel McCarthy's primary vote be, and what will it mean for McSally?

The teacher says yes, the pundit has his doubts. Also: Will the court strike down some of the state ballot initiatives? How much can be squeezed into a 100-word summary?

Does McSally have anything to fear from McCarthy? Will lack of competition leave Mark Kelly unprepared?

Do Republicans have to stick with Trump through the 2020 election? What effect will coronavirus and the Black Lives Matter movement have?

Forrest Radarian joins the podcast to talk about the possibility of returning to the classroom in the fall, Arizona state standards, testing, and how we should re-orient the goals of public education. Forrest is a high school science teacher with over ten years of experience in Arizona public schools.

Does the state legislature need to return this year, and if so, what do they need to accomplish under the circumstances? How will the pandemic affect the outcome of legislative races heading into 2020? Also discussed: the Phoenix Suns of the '90s.

Given the uncertain pandemic conditions ahead of the November election, should states shift to all mail-in voting? Should legislatures be voting electronically? Will Arizona allow ballot initiatives to collect signatures online?

Will the economic stimulus bill make a significant difference for workers and businesses? What else could we do? Can the economy bounce back after the curve starts to fall?

What if anything will indicate that it's safe to resume normal interactions and economic activity? What will be the political consequences of Covid-19 and the response? Also: Why Jordan is the GOAT

Sean McCarthy from the Arizona Tax Research Association joins the podcast to break down some issues related to Arizona school finance. We talk about the funding formula and school choice, as well as emerging trends like declining district enrollment numbers and the rising cost of the state's retirement system.

Are Sanders and Trump two sides of the same populist coin? What would be the down ballot effect in Arizona of a Sanders nomination? Also: The most important bill before the Arizona state legislature.

Will having a ban on sanctuary cities on the ballot help Trump and Republicans in Arizona? What are the prospects of larger immigration reform?

Are the state's demographics moving in a Democratic direction? What about continuing fights over vouchers and education funding?

Where will they spend all that dough? What should be the priorities of education funding? Will the upcoming election politics affect how the legislature does business?