NAB FX Podcast

With unprecedented monetary & fiscal policy and the RBA increasingly positive about the recovery, but hampered by renewed lockdowns affecting large parts of Australia, Tapas Strickland (Director, Economics NAB) will dissect the economic outlook for both the Australian and International Economy. We will explore what the next steps in a recovery will look like and what economic risks you should take into consideration for your long term planning.

NAB's Senior FX strategist Rodrigo Catril meets with our Group Economist Phin Ziebell to discuss the impact of the recent RBA meeting on the AUD. With the RBA sounding ever so slightly more hawkish, the AUD enjoyed some post meeting strength. However Rodrigo and Phin discuss why that rally was short lived and the impact that Central Banks will have on the currency through to the end of the year.

Phin Ziebell joins Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy, to discuss the volatility we have seen in the AUD post FOMC and what this means for our forecasts. With the AUD closing the month below 75 cents, Phin asks where this leaves NAB's AUD forecasts. Ray discusses what occurred through June, including the AUD fall post FOMC and the impact of China clamping down on perceived speculation in the commodity market. Ray discusses his key takeaways for FY 21, stating it was a year of two halves with early strength in the AUD when the market was full of optimisation, and more recently when the AUD lost its shine thanks to the movement in the US interest rate market. Fundamentally Ray still believes the AUD will move higher with our fair value model suggesting 80 cents remains our target this year. However recent history suggests the AUD won't necessarily move in a straight line higher. Ray discusses key risks to his view are the Federal Reserve moving interest rates sooner than expected or larger economies move into new lockdowns that will impact global growth.

Phin Ziebell joins Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist. Phin and Rodrigo discuss the post FOMC market volatility with Rodrigo highlighting the unwinding of USD short positioning as a big factor contributing to the post FOMC greenback appreciation. Phin and Rodrigo then touch on NAB's outlook for the AUD where fundamentally not much has changed, the global growth outlook remains on a strong footing favouring buoyancy in commodity prices while domestically the strength of the economy and recovery of the labour market also point to the AUD moving higher from here. There are, however, risks to this outlook with Phin and Rodrigo noting how vulnerable Australia remains to covid outbreaks amid the low level of vaccination per population. Tony Prove joins the chat and discusses recent exporters and importers activity in light of a lower AUD.

Phin Ziebell joins Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy. Phin asks Ray about the 2% sell off in the AUD post this week's FOMC (Fed) meeting. Ray discusses the shift in expectations for US interest rates embedded in the FOMC's so called ‘dot plot' as being a key driver for this week's USD strength and relate AUD weakness. Phin asks Ray about movement in other currencies against the USD, including the weakness of the EUR. Ray discusses the NAB (stronger) AUD forecasts as being maintained for Q3 and Q4 notwithstanding the probable ‘miss' in the end-Q2 forecasts. Ray backs this view by discussing global economic growth rebounding at pace in H2 2021, in a post COVID globally vaccinated economy, as something that is historically negative for the USD and positive for the AUD. Ray discussed how quickly FX markets can move and large moves are not unusual when the market forms the view that currencies are mispriced. Phin finishes by asking Ray about interest rate differentials as a potential negative for the AUD

Phin Ziebell joins Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist, in an FX discussion touching on last week's brief AUD fall below 77c and its recovery back above the figure post US nonfarm payrolls late on Friday. Rodrigo notes that ahead of the FOMC meeting next week, speculation around Fed QE tapering talk is supporting the USD, but at the same time elevated commodity prices remain a solid fundamental force favouring a stronger AUD. Phin and Rodrigo also discuss COVID vaccination as a driver for economic recovery and confidence both in Australia and Globally. The two then touch on NAB's unchanged forecast for the AUD/USD that sees the pair trading above 80c in H2-2021, supported by NAB's expectations for commodity prices to remain elevated, aided by a resilient vaccine powered global economic recovery and a softer USD outlook

Phin Ziebell joins Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy and Jarryd Freeman, Director Financial Markets for this week's podcast. Ray describes May as having been an extremely low volatility month for AUD/USD (in fact the narrowest monthly range since November 2019). Notwithstanding that NAB's Fair Value Models and related commodity price strength suggest the AUD should have been much higher, Ray notes that May has traditionally been a weak month for the AUD (and June a stronger one). Phin asks Ray about the recent strengthening in the Yuan, which headed below 6.40 against the USD, and the implications for the AUD/CNH cross, as well as upcoming FX event risk. Jarryd Freeman then joins Phin and discusses client themes and categorises them as markets and non-markets ones. Jarryd describes key exporter and importer issues and considerations, including possible flexible hedging options for clients.

Phin Ziebell joins Rodrigo Catril Senior FX Strategist. Rodrigo discusses recent AUD/USD tight trading ranges, but then offers interesting dynamic from fresh EUR and CNY appreciation which favour the AUD breaking higher, in line with NAB Forecasts.Looking at what is coming, next week’s Australia Q1 GDP is likely to provide another piece of evidence supporting a robust economic recovery. NAB has pencilled in a Q1 GDP print of 1.0% q/q, with much of the strength to come from an ongoing recovery in services consumption, Rodrigo notes that this should be a good story for the AUD along with the expected buoyancy in commodity prices. Phin moves on to ask Rodrigo about yesterday’s RBNZ meeting, the Bank’s forward guidance on the overnight cash rate as well as commentary on New Zealand’s labour market and wages growth. Jon Buckle Senior Markets Manager joins and give us his insights about client activity. Jon talks about, clients currently thinking about setting budget rates, consulting with clients with their FX risk management strategies. Jon also discusses the ongoing issue of global supply chain issues and shipping costs.

In this week’s FX and Your Business Podcast, Phin Ziebell talks to NAB’s Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill, about latest currency market developments, the significance of commodity prices – the sharp run up in iron ore price in particular – and what to look out of in coming days. Ray stresses that volatility in the iron ore price is often not a reliable guide to the performance of the AUD (but that he still thinks the AUD will be higher in coming months largely because of commodity prices!). He also talks about the significance of the recent strengthening in European currencies, which have seen the AUD/EUR and AUD/GBP cross rates fall back from highs seen earlier in the year. Phin also talks to Jonathon Cross, Senior Markets Manager in NAB’s Corporate and Institutional banking team in Perth, who shares some insights on mining client activity in WA against the backdrop of the extraordinary strength in iron ore prices.

Phin Ziebell talks about inflation and FX implications with Rodrigo Catril Senior FX Strategist and Chris O’Brien Senior Markets Manager. Phin and Rodrigo dissect the factors driving inflation higher including supply chain disruptions, pent up demand and base effects. The two also discuss the distinction between Demand Pull and Cost Pull Inflation. The role of Central Banks is also analysed including the debate around new tolerance for higher inflation along with implications for the USD and AUD. Chris O’Brien joins and reveals Demand and Supply dynamics affecting clients in particular Freight rates, raw imports and accessing supply. Chris discusses FX exporters and importers activity highlighting effective FX hedging strategies that have been used to help our clients manage their FX exposures.

Phin Ziebell speaks to Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Currency Strategist and Mat Hosking Senior Markets Manager. Rodrigo discusses the AUD’s performance in April, touching on the AUD’s inability to sustainably break above .7800 on three occasions during the month. Phin and Rodrigo also talk about the US FOMC's position on stimulus and QE tapering. Looking ahead Rodrigo notes positive sentiment on commodity demand as a potential driver for AUD strength. Mat Hosking joins the conversation observing the tight recent AUD range, activity above .7800 for importers and around .7620 for exporters. Mat also discusses hedging instruments used in the current market, freight costs, demand for goods, budget levels and FX Risk Management.

Phin Ziebell speak with Ray Attrill, NAB Head of FX Strategy and Haley Paul, Senior Markets Manager. Ray discusses NAB & BNZ's strategy team being awarded Bloomberg's top spot in a recent global poll in accuracy of forecasts. Ray discusses NAB's current currency views on the AUD and what the risks to the forecast are. In particular, risk sentiment and commodity prices. Ray discusses the Chinese economy, credit growth and what that could mean for their growth and the flow on to commodity prices. Ray finishes by discussing this week's event calendar. Haley joins and discusses, AUD trading in a tight range, exporter, importer activity, shipping costs, commodity prices. Haley finishes by discussing client Foreign Exchange hedging activity.

Phin Ziebell, interviews Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist and Alun Campbell, Senior Markets Manager. Phin and Rodrigo discuss the recent AUD break higher and NAB’s near term outlook for the currency. Rodrigo noted US Treasury yields, Australian Economic data and commodity prices, as key AUD supporting factors. Phin then talks with Alun about client’s general feedback with Alun noting importer and exporter activity, clients’ views on the AUD and market volatility. Phin and Alun finish by discussing global shipping costs affecting our clients.

Johann Kurzbock and Ruud Van Henten from the NAB Markets Team, speak with Alan Oster, NAB Group Economist and Drew Bradford, Executive General Manager, NAB Markets about the Economic and Financial Markets Landscape 12 Months on from the onset of the COVID Pandemic in this Webinar recorded 15 April 2021.

Phin Ziebell speak to Ray Attrill NAB Head of FX Strategy. Ray reviews a relatively quiet week for currency markets with the AUD gaining about .30 percent on the USD. Ray discussed US economic performance and the rise in US Bond Yields as a driver of USD strength, contrasting this against positive risk sentiment as a driver of USD Weakness. Phin asks Ray about the performance of the Eurozone’s vaccination rollout and its effect on the EUR. Phin and Ray discuss this week’s upcoming economic data: NAB Monthly Survey, Au Employment, US earnings reporting season, China GDP and Credit Data, US Inflation

In this week’s FX and Your Business Podcast, Phin Ziebell speaks to Ray Attrill, NAB’s Head of FX Research, about last week’s fall to new year to date lows in the AUD/USD at 0.7535 and its subsequent rebound. Ray discusses recent strong US economic data, US equity market strength and bond market volatility and how this is playing out in FX, as well as anticipation of large scale US fiscal stimulus, including proposed multi-trillion dollar infrastructure spending. Ray and Phin also discuss COVID-related economic restrictions and vaccination roll outs across major economies and how this is influencing currency markets, including on some of the AUD cross rates. Finally, Ray tells us what’s on his radar this week that may impact FX markets.

Phin Ziebell speaks to Ray Attrill NAB Head of FX Research about what happened in FX markets last week and what is coming up this week. Ray discusses NAB's forecasts for Q1 as being largely consistent with current market levels save for EUR weakness related to COVID infection control and vaccine rollouts. Ray cites New Zealand's economic performance as as an example of how Europe may bounce back in Q2 and beyond as the control the COVID Virus. Phin and Ray discuss Q2 currency forecasts and the AUD/NZD cross.

Lucia La Bella, Executive NAB Business Markets Interviews Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist on the New Zealand Dollar and the AUD/NZD cross. Lucia asks Rodrigo about AUD/NZD volatility since December. Rodrigo discusses the performance of the cross based on Australia's economic recovery relative to New Zealand. Lucia also asks Rodrigo about recent NZ Government housing policy changes and their affect on the cross. Rodrigo also discusses NAB's forecasts for the NZD.

Phin Ziebell speaks with Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist and Kaine Perry, Senior Markets Manager. Rodrigo touches on last week’s Australian Labour Markets data and what that may mean for the AUD and the RBA, plus the Fed's inflation forecasts and market expectations for the Fed funds rate. Phin asked Rodrigo about COVID resurgences globally and their potential effect on NAB’s forecast for the AUD. Kaine Perry discussed bond market moves and what that has meant for commercial borrowers.

Lucia La Bella Executive NAB Markets, Interviews Rodrigo Catril Senior Currency Strategist about NAB's changed forecast for the Yen. Rodrigo discusses the AUD's rise against the Yen since march last year, NABs view on future directions and risks to this view.

In today’s podcast Alex Foran Associate Director, interviews Nicolette Quinn about her clients involved in Retail Trade. Nicolette discusses how 2020 market volatility impacted her Retail Trade clients, what strategies she and her colleagues put in place to manage this volatility and what is front of mind for her clients in 2021.

Phin Ziebell speaks with Rodrigo Catril, Senior Currency Strategist and Tony Prove, Senior Markets Manager. Rodrigo discusses key currency themes from last weeks, including movements in the USD and EUR relative to the AUD as well as rise in US Bond Yields and market inflation expectations. Vaccine roll outs and infections were a contrasting feature between Europe and the US. Phin and Rodrigo also look at the week ahead with Australia’s Labour Force Report and FOMC meeting the events to watch while Tony gives a general overview about some of the key themes he has been seeing with his importer and exporter client base over the last few weeks.

Lucia La Bella, Executive NAB Markets interviews Ray Attrill, NAB Head of FX Research about the EURO Dollar and what that means for the AUD/EUR cross. They discuss the key drivers of the EURO, the NAB forecasts and growth prospects post emergence from COVID lockdowns.

In today’s podcast Alex Foran Associate Director, interviews Haley Paul, Senior Markets Manager about her Importer client base. Haley discusses how 2020 market volatility impacted her Importer clients, what strategies she and her colleagues put in place to manage this volatility and what is front of mind for her clients in 2021.

In today’s podcast Alex Foran Associate Director, interviews Chris O'Brien Senior Markets Manager about his Agri client base. Chris discusses how 2020 market volatility impacted his Agri clients, what strategies he and his colleagues put in place to manage this volatility and what is front of mind for his clients in 2021.

Phin Ziebell and Ray Attrill discussed the sharply lower AUD move at the end of last week, on the back of a sharp rise in bond yields globally and their impact on equities, the US dollar, commodities and risk sentiment. The impact of iron ore, copper, oil and LNG prices are discussed in the context of NAB’s AUD ‘Fair Value’ models. They discussed this Tuesday’s RBA meeting and the US labour market data at the end of the week, in particular the RBA’s attitude towards higher bond yields here in Australia and their effect on the currency and their QE bond buying program and Yield Curve Control policy. Ray and Phin finish with some comments on NAB’s FX forecasts for the AUD.

Friday 17th April 2020 The last month has seen a sizeable fall in the value of the Australian dollar and then an almost as magnificent rebound. In this edition of the NAB-FX Podcast Ray Attrill explains the reason for these shifts and explains how we can expect to see more upside I the Aussie dollar over the next few months. But what about the longer term? Phil Dobbie asks Rodrigo Catril whether we’ll see the longer-term downward trend to resume, or will the dollar find a new level in the post COVID-19 world?

Wednesday 1st April 2020 In this month’s NAB FX podcast Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill and Rodrigo Catril about the impact of COVID 19 and the oil price war on the Aussie dollar. It has been the most tumultuous couple of months for the Aussie since it was floated in 1983. It’s rebounded from its low of 55 USD cents, but how long will it take to rise back to pre-crisis levels. There’s also discussion on the relationship with the Yen, the New Zealand Dollar and the Euro, and why NAB isn’t expecting a V-shaped recovery.

October 2019 Currencies have been driven by two, perhaps forlorn, hopes this month. First, the expectation that the US and China will reach a phase one agreement on trade. Secondly, that a Brexit deal will be finalised. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether sentiment has been too positive on both. After all, we’ve still waiting for evidence that a trade agreement will be reached and, even though the UK parliament passed the first stage if the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, they refused to agree to the rapid timetable Boris Johnson was setting. So what does that mean for the Aussie dollar, as further uncertainty seems almost certain.

September 2019 Having spent most of August below 68 US cents, the Aussie dollar bounced to just shy of 69 cents this month, driven by renewed hopes of progress in the US-China trade talks. In this month’s NAB FX Podcast Phil Dobbie asks Ray Attrill, NAB’s Head of FX strategy, whether the Aussie dollar can hold that level, particularly as NAB has forecast it will fall to 65 cents by the year end. They also discuss: - The ramifications of this week’s attack on the Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia - Expectations for the Japanese Yen in a turbulent geopolitical environment - The roadmap for Brexit and the direction of Sterling

Thursday 15th August 2019 NAB downgraded forecasts for the Australian Dollar after President Trump escalated the trade war by threatening extra tariffs by the end of the month. Now he has delayed some of those tariffs. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether than means the forecasts could change again. They also look at the latest Brexit news, with the UK Prime Minister intent on doing whatever it takes to leave the EU by the end of October. This latest chapter in the saga has seen a revision to forecasts for the pound, with possibly more contagion to the Euro than previously expected.

17th July 2019 In this month’s FX Podcast Ray and Phil discuss: The drivers of the AUD/USD’s return to above 70 cents – can it last longer than was the case in early June and July? The likelihood of the US Fed cutting interest rates at the end of this month for the first time since 2008 - what would this means for the big dollar and with that the Aussie? Risks of yet more weakness ahead for the British pound once the new Conservative party leader and Prime Minister is anointed next week.

RBA Alert - 7th Of May 2.30pm by

Join NAB's Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill as he sits down with Phil Dobbie to discuss his outlook for the FX market. In this short discussion, Ray will cover: • The AUD: What’s next for the AUDUSD with the move sub 0.7000 and the potential for two RBA rate cuts this year? Are these cuts priced in to the currency or is more volatility expected ahead? • Trade Wars: How might this play out over the coming months? Is the PBoC expected to weaken their currency as a result and if so, how will this impact the AUD? • Brexit: What are the expectations surrounding the Withdrawal Bill vote on the 3rd of June? What could this mean for Brexit, Theresa May and the AUDGBP?

In this month’s currency Podcast, NAB’s Head of FX Strategy Ray Attrill discusses some changes to NAB’s FX AUD forecasts. These include downward revisions to our AUD/USD projections for the remainder of 2019 and 2020 – but not by very much – but slightly bigger downward revision to NAB's forecasts for both Sterling and the Euro (so meaning our AUD/GBP and AUD/EUR forecasts are higher than previously) A key development since in the last month has been evaporation of earlier optimism that the US and China would strike a comprehensive trade agreement by the time Presidents Trump and Xi arrived in Osaka for the G20 head of state meeting at the end of June. If instead trade tensions escalate further after this, what would it mean for the Renminbi and with that the AUD?