Podcasts about fx strategy

‘When it comes to using artificial intelligence for market forecasts, alternative data is a factor that will improve your performance,' says Saeed Amen, co-founder of Turnleaf Analytics on UBP's Forex Focus podcast hosted by Peter Kinsella, UBP's Global Head of FX Strategy. Listen to it now for more.

Charu Chanana, Head of FX Strategy & Market Strategist, SAXO Singapore discusses how much pressure the Japanese yen is likely to face in the wake of political uncertainty with the ruling LDP party losing its majority. She also previews the big tech earnings on tap this week including Meta and Amazon. Produced/Presented: Ryan HuangSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the US economy giving everyone whiplash in recent times and the Fed poised to cut interest rates, what does this all mean for your investments? Howie Lim speaks to Charu Chanana, head of FX Strategy and global market strategist at Saxo to find out. Synopsis: Every Monday, Howie Lim gets experts to break down useful financial tips. Highlights of the conversation:  01:43 How the US economy is doing so far 04:30 Which scenario will be better for you? 09:02 Where exactly the US economy is headed 13:13 Is ‘timing' rebalancing your portfolio bad too? --- Send us your questions, thoughts, story ideas, and feedback to btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.  --- Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg) With Charu Chanana, head of FX Strategy and global market strategist, Saxo Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: Howie Lim Engineered by: Joann Chai Pei Chieh A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media --- Follow BT Money Hacks podcasts every Monday: Channel: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks Amazon: bt.sg/mham Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/oeXe  Spotify: bt.sg/oeGN  YouTube Music: bt.sg/mhyt Website: bt.sg/moneyhacks Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party's products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Mark To Market Podcast at: bt.sg/btmark2mkt  WealthBT at: bt.sg/btwealthbt PropertyBT at: bt.sg/btpropertybt BT Market Focus at: bt.sg/btmktfocus BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/pcOM BT Branded Podcasts at: bt.sg/brpod BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the US economy giving everyone whiplash in recent times and the Fed poised to cut interest rates, what does this all mean for your investments? Howie Lim speaks to Charu Chanana, head of FX Strategy and global market strategist at Saxo to find out. Synopsis: Every Monday, Howie Lim gets experts to break down useful financial tips. Highlights of the conversation:  01:43 How the US economy is doing so far 04:30 Which scenario will be better for you? 09:02 Where exactly the US economy is headed 13:13 Is ‘timing' rebalancing your portfolio bad too? --- Send us your questions, thoughts, story ideas, and feedback to btpodcasts@sph.com.sg.  --- Written and hosted by: Howie Lim (howielim@sph.com.sg) With Charu Chanana, head of FX Strategy and global market strategist, Saxo Edited by: Howie Lim & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: Howie Lim Engineered by: Joann Chai Pei Chieh A podcast by BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media --- Follow BT Money Hacks podcasts every Monday: Channel: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks Amazon: bt.sg/mham Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/oeXe  Spotify: bt.sg/oeGN  YouTube Music: bt.sg/mhyt Website: bt.sg/moneyhacks Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party's products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Mark To Market Podcast at: bt.sg/btmark2mkt  WealthBT at: bt.sg/btwealthbt PropertyBT at: bt.sg/btpropertybt BT Market Focus at: bt.sg/btmktfocus BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/pcOM BT Branded Podcasts at: bt.sg/brpod BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist, and Dominic Bunning, Head of G10 FX Strategy, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Market uncertainty is rife. Key data from the US and UK may set the record straight. Chapters: Week Ahead Key Themes with Dominic Bunning (01:12), US (05:11), Europe (09:38), Asia (13:41)

Charu Chanana, Head of FX Strategy and Global Market Strategist at Saxo discusses how the market narrative has turned with the latest US jobs data in the form of a weaker than expected set of non-farm payrolls. She examines how that's raising questions about a recession, as well as the implications for investors. Produced/Presented: Ryan Huang See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Charu Chanana, Head of FX Strategy and Global Market Strategist at Saxo shares if host countries always benefit from running the Olympics, and who the main beneficiaries are in the latest edition in France.  Produced/Presented: Ryan HuangSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Aussie dollar hasn't done a lot over the last year, but now it's on the move. Ray Attrill, head of FX Strategy at NAB, tells Sean Aylmer why the dollar is rallying, and just how far it can go.Find out more: https://fearandgreed.com.auSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Charu Chanana, Head of FX Strategy, Saxo Singapore discusses what investors should takeaway from the Trump-Biden debate, the latest round of French elections, and the upcoming UK elections. She also previews the key data points to watch for the week including US non-farm payrolls. Produced/Presented: Ryan HuangSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Featuring: Stephanie Leung, Chief Investment Officer at StashAway Charu Chanana, Global Market Strategist and Head of FX Strategy at Saxo Terri Spath, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Zuma Wealth Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg-daybreak-asia/id1663863437Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0Ccfge70zthAgVfm0NVw1bTuneIn: https://tunein.com/podcasts/Asian-Talk/Bloomberg-Daybreak-Asia-Edition-p247557/?lang=es-es See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Charu Chanana, Head of FX Strategy and Global Market Strategist at Saxo discusses what's behind the 40 percent plunge in Gamestop despite influencer Roaring Kitty's first appearance in four years. She also looks at the calendar this week including what's being priced into the FOMC rate meeting after stronger than expected non-farm payrolls data for May.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Despite interventions, the JPY remains under pressure against the US dollar. What more can be done to strengthen the JPY and what's the impact of a weak JPY on regional currencies? Saktiandi Supaat, Head of FX Strategy, Maybank, explains why recent interventions haven't worked their magic and what's on the road ahead for the JPY.

With the US election less than six months away, how should investors begin to assess the potential impacts on emerging markets? On this episode, hosts Matthew Schnurr and Dustin Reid are joined by Alejandro Cuadrado, Global Head of FX Strategy and Head of Emerging Markets Rate Strategy at BBVA, to discuss the implications of the US election in Latin America and Mexico. Alejandro explores what a Biden re-election or Trump victory could mean for new tariffs and the renegotiation of the USMCA agreement. This episode was recorded on May 16, 2024.

Our expert panel explains the U.S. dollar's current status as the primary global reserve currency and whether the euro and renminbi, or even crypto currencies are positioned to take over that role.Digital assets, sometimes known as cryptocurrency, are a digital representation of a value that function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but generally do not have legal tender status. Digital assets have no intrinsic value and there is no investment underlying digital assets. The value of digital assets is derived by market forces of supply and demand, and is therefore more volatile than traditional currencies' value. Investing in digital assets is risky, and transacting in digital assets carries various risks, including but not limited to fraud, theft, market volatility, market manipulation, and cybersecurity failures—such as the risk of hacking, theft, programming bugs, and accidental loss. Additionally, there is no guarantee that any entity that currently accepts digital assets as payment will do so in the future. The volatility and unpredictability of the price of digital assets may lead to significant and immediate losses. It may not be possible to liquidate a digital assets position in a timely manner at a reasonable price.Regulation of digital assets continues to develop globally and, as such, federal, state, or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of any or all digital assets, further contributing to their volatility. Digital assets stored online are not insured and do not have the same protections or safeguards of bank deposits in the US or other jurisdictions. Digital assets can be exchanged for US dollars or other currencies, but are not generally backed nor supported by any government or central bank.Before purchasing, investors should note that risks applicable to one digital asset may not be the same risks applicable to other forms of digital assets. Markets and exchanges for digital assets are not currently regulated in the same manner and do not provide the customer protections available in equities, fixed income, options, futures, commodities or foreign exchange markets. Morgan Stanley and its affiliates do business that may relate to some of the digital assets or other related products discussed in Morgan Stanley Research. These could include market making, providing liquidity, fund management, commercial banking, extension of credit, investment services and investment banking.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research.James Lord: I'm James Lord, Head of FX Strategy for Emerging Markets.David Adams: And I'm Dave Adams, head of G10 FX Strategy.Michael Zezas: And on this episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll discuss whether the US status as the world's major reserve currency can be challenged, and how.It's Wednesday, May 8th, at 3pm in London.Last week, you both joined me to discuss the historic strength of the US dollar and its impact on the global economy. Today, I'd like us to dive into one aspect of the dollar's dominance, namely the fact that the dollar remains the primary global reserve asset.James, let's start with the basics. What is a reserve currency and why should investors care about this?James Lord: The most simplistic and straightforward definition of a reserve currency is simply that central banks around the world hold that currency as part of its foreign currency reserves. So, the set of reserve currencies in the world is defined by the revealed preferences of the world's central banks. They hold around 60 percent of those reserves in U.S. dollars, with the euro around 20 percent, and the rest divided up between the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and more recently, the Chinese renminbi.But the true essence of a global reserve currency is broader than this, and it really revolves around which currency is most commonly used for cross border transactions of various kinds internationally. That could be international trade, and the US dollar is the most commonly used currency for trade invoicing, including for commodity prices. It could also be in cross border lending or in the foreign currency debt issuance that global companies and emerging market governments issue. These all involve cross border transactions.But for me, two of the most powerful indications of a currency's global status.One, are third parties using it without the involvement of a home country? So, when Japan imports commodities from abroad, it probably pays for it in US dollars and the exporting country receives US dollars, even though the US is not involved in that transaction. And secondly, I think, which currency tends to strengthen when risk aversion rises in the global economy? That tends to be the US dollar because it remains the highly trusted asset and investors put a premium on safety.So why should investors care? Well, which currency would you want to own when global stock markets start to fall, and the global economy tends to head into recession? You want to be positioning in US dollars because that has historically been the exchange rate reaction to those kinds of events.Michael Zezas: And so, Dave, what's the dollar's current status as a reserve currency?David Adams: The dollar is the most dominant currency and has been for almost a hundred years. We looked at a lot of different ways to measure currency dominance or reserve currency status, and the dollar really does reign supreme in all of them.It is the highest share of global FX reserves, as James mentioned. It is the highest share of usage to invoice global trade. It's got the highest usage for cross border lending by banks. And when corporates or foreign governments borrow in foreign currency, it's usually in dollars. This dominant status has been pretty stable over recent decades and doesn't really show any major signs of abating at this point.Michael Zezas: And the British pound was the first truly global reserve currency. How and when did it lose its position?David Adams: It surprises investors how quick it really was. It only took about 10 years from 1913 to 1923 for the pound to begin losing its crown to king Dollar. But of course, such a quick change requires a shock with the enormity of the First World War.It's worth remembering that the war fundamentally shifted the US' role in the global economy, bringing it from a large but regional second tier financial power to a global financial powerhouse. Shocks like that are pretty rare. But the lesson I really draw from this period is that a necessary condition for a currency like sterling to lose its dominant status is a credible alternative waiting in the wings.In the absence of that credible alternative, changes in dominance are at most gradual and at least minimal.Michael Zezas: This is helpful background about the British pound. Now let's talk about potential challengers to the dollar status as the world's major reserve currency. The currency most often discussed in this regard is the Chinese renminbi. James, what's your view on this?James Lord: It seems unlikely to challenge the US dollar meaningfully any time soon. To do so, we think China would need to relax control of its currency and open the capital account. It doesn't seem likely that Beijing will want to do this any time soon. And global investors remain concerned about the outlook for the Chinese economy, and so are probably unwilling to hold substantial amounts of RNB denominated assets. China may make some progress in denominating more of its bilateral trade in US dollars, but the impact that that has on global metrics of currency dominance is likely to be incremental.David Adams: It's an interesting point, James, because when we talk to investors, there does seem to be an increasing concern about the end of dollar dominance driven by both a perceived unsustainable fiscal outlook and concerns about sanctions overreach.Mike, what do you think about these in the context of dollar dominance?Michael Zezas: So, I understand the concern, but for the foreseeable future, there's not much to it. Depending on the election outcome in the US, there's some fiscal expansion on the table, but it's not egregious in our view, and unless we think the Fed can't fight inflation -- and our economists definitely think they can -- then it's hard to see a channel toward the dollar becoming an unstable currency, which I believe is what you're saying is one of the very important things here.But James, in your view, are there alternatives to the US led financial system?James Lord: At present, no, not really. I think, as I mentioned in last week's episode, few economies and markets can really match the liquidity and the safety that the US financial system offers. The Eurozone is a possible contender, but that region offers a suboptimal currency union, given the lack of common fiscal policy; and its capital markets there are just simply not deep enough.Michael Zezas: And Dave, could cryptocurrency serve as an alternative reserve currency?David Adams: It's a question we get from time to time. I think a challenge crypto faces as an alternative dominant currency is its store of value function. One of the key functions of a dominant currency is its use for cross border transactions. It greases the wheels of foreign trade. Stability and value is important here. Now, usually when we talk to investors about value stability, they think in terms of downside. What's the risk I lose money holding this asset?But when we think about currencies and trade, asset appreciation is important too. If I'm holding a crypto coin that rises, say, 10 per cent a month, I'm less likely to use that for trade and instead just hoard it in my wallet to benefit from its price appreciation. Now, reasonable people can disagree about whether cryptocurrencies are going to appreciate or depreciate, but I'd argue that the best outcome for a dominant currency is neither. Stability and value that allows it to function as a medium of exchange rather than as an asset.Michael Zezas: So, James, Dave, bottom line, king dollar doesn't really have any challengers.James Lord: Yeah, that pretty much sums it up.Michael Zezas: Well, both of you, thanks for taking the time to talk.David Adams: Thanks much for having us.James Lord: Yeah, great speaking with you, Mike.Michael Zezas: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our experts discuss U.S. dollar strength and its far-reaching impact on the global economy and the world's stock markets.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research.James Lord: I'm James Lord, Head of FX Strategy for Emerging Markets.David Adams: And I'm Dave Adams, Head of G10 FX Strategy.Michael Zezas: And on this episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll discuss one of the most debated topics in world markets right now, the strength of the US dollar.It's Wednesday, May 1st, at 3 pm in London.Michael Zezas: Currencies around the world are falling as a strong US dollar continues its reign. This is an unusual situation. So much so that the finance ministers of Japan, South Korea, and the United States released a joint statement last month to address the effects being felt in Asia. The US dollar's dominance can have vast implications for the global economy and the world stock markets.So, I wanted to sit down with my colleagues, James and David, who are Morgan Stanley's currency strategy experts for emerging markets and developed markets. James, just how dominant is the US dollar right now and what's driving the strength?James Lord: So, we should distinguish between the role the US dollar plays as the world's dominant reserve currency and its value, which can go up and down for other reasons.Right now, the dollar remains just as dominant in the international monetary system as it has been over the past several decades, whilst it also happens to be very strong in terms of its value, as you mentioned. That strength in its value is really being driven by the continued outperformance of the US economy and the ongoing rise in US interest rates, while growth in the rest of the world is more subdued.The dollar's international role remains dominant simply because no other economy or market can match the depth of the US capital markets and the liquidity that it provides, both as a means of raising capital, but also as a store of value for investment; while also offering the strong protection of property rights, strong sovereign credit ratings, the rule of law, and an open capital account. There simply isn't another market that can challenge the US in that respect.Michael Zezas: And can you talk a bit more specifically about the various ways in which the dollar impacts the global economy?James Lord: So, one of the strongest impacts is through the price of the dollar, and the price of dollar debt, which have an impact beyond the borders of the US economy. Because the majority of foreign currency denominated debt that corporates outside of the US issue is denominated in US dollars, the interest rate that's set by the US Federal Reserve has a big impact on the cost of borrowing. It's also the same for many emerging market sovereigns that also issue heavily in US dollars. The US dollar is also used heavily in international trade, cross border lending, because the majority of international trade is denominated in US dollars. So, when US interest rates rise, it also tightens monetary conditions for the rest of the world. That is why the US Federal Reserve is often referred to as the world's central bank, even though Fed only sets policy with respect to the US economy.And the US dollar strengthens, as it has been over the past 10 years, it also makes it more challenging for countries that borrow in dollars to repay that debt, unless they have enough dollar assets.Again, that's another tightening of financial conditions for the rest of the world. I think it was a US Treasury Secretary from several decades ago who said that the US dollar is our currency, but your problem. And that neatly sums up the global influence the US dollar has.Michael Zezas: And David, nothing seems to typify the strength of the US dollar recently, like the currency moves we're seeing with the Japanese Yen. It looks very weak at the moment, and yet the Japanese stock market is very strong.David Adams: Yeah, weak is an understatement for the Japanese yen. In nominal terms, the yen is at its weakest level versus the dollar since 1990. And if we look in real terms, it hasn't been this weak since the late 1960s. Why it's weak is pretty easy to explain, though. It's monetary policy divergence. Theory tells us that as long as capital is free to move, a country can't both control its interest rates and control the exchange rate at the same time.G10 economies typically choose to control rates and leave their currencies to float, and the US and Japan are no exception. So, while the while the Fed's policy rate has risen to multi-decade highs, Japan's has been left basically unchanged, consistent with its economic fundamentals.Now, you mentioned Japanese equities, which is also increasingly important to this story. As foreign investors have deployed more cash into the Japanese stock market, a lot of them have hedged their FX [foreign exchange] exposure, which means they're buying back dollars in the forward market. The more that Japanese equities rise, the more hedges they add, increasing dollar demand versus the yen.So, put simply, the best outcome for dollar yen to keep rising is for US rates versus Japan and Japanese equities to both keep marching higher. And for a lot of investors, this seems increasingly like their base case.Michael Zezas: That makes sense. And yet, despite the dollar's clear dominance at the moment, the consensus view on the dollar is that it's going to get weaker. Why is that the case and what's the market missing?James Lord: Yeah, the consensus has been on the wrong side of the dollar call for quite a few years now, with a persistently bearish outlook, which has largely been incorrect. I think for the most part this is because the consensus has underestimated the strength of the US economy. It wasn't that long ago when the consensus was calling for a hard landing in the US economy and a pretty deep easing cycle from the Fed. And yet here we are with GDP growth north of 2 per cent and murmurings of another rate hike entering the narrative. I also wonder whether this debate about de-dollarization, whereby the dollar's global influence starts to wane, has impacted the sentiment of forecasters a bit as well.We have seen over the past three to four years much more noise in the media on this topic, and there appears to be a correlation between the extent to which the consensus is expecting dollar weakness and the number of media articles that are discussing the dollar's status as the world's major reserve currency.Maybe that's coincidence, but it's also consistent with our view that the market generally worries too much about this issue and the impact that it could have on the dollar's outlook.Michael Zezas: Now there've been a few notable changes to Morgan Stanley's macro forecasts over the last few weeks. Our US economist, Ellen Zentner revised up her forecast for US growth and inflation. And she also pushed back our expectations for the first Fed cut. Along with this, our US rate strategy team also revised their 10-year treasury yield expectations higher. Do these updates to the macro-outlook impact your bullish view on the dollar, both near term and longer term?David Adams: So, higher US rates are often helpful for the dollar, but we think some nuance is required. It's not that US rates are moving; it's why they're moving. And our four-regime dollar framework shows that increases or decreases in rates can give us very different dollar outcomes depending on the reason why rates are moving.So far this year, rates have been moving higher in a pretty benign risk environment. And in a world where US real interest rates rise alongside equities; the dollar tends to go nowhere in the aggregate. It gains versus low yielding funders like the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the euro, but it tends to weaken versus those higher beta currencies with positive carry, like the Mexican peso. It's why we've been neutral on the dollar overall since the start of the year, but we still emphasize dollar strength, especially versus the euro.If rising rates were to start weighing on equities, that would lead the dollar to start rallying broadly, what we call Regime 3 of our framework. It's not our base case, but it's a risk we think markets are starting to get more nervous about. It suggests that the balance of risks are increasingly towards a higher dollar rather than a lower one.Michael Zezas: And finally, Dave, I wanted to ask about potential risks to the US dollar's current strength.David Adams: I'd say the clearest dollar negative risk for me is a rebound in European and Chinese growth. It's hard for investors to get excited about selling the dollar without a clear alternative to buy. A big rebound in rest of world growth could easily make those alternatives look more attractive, though how probable that outcome is remains debatable.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, this discussion of risk to the strong dollar may be a good time to pause. There's so much more to talk about here. We've barely scratched the surface. So, let's continue the conversation in the near future when we can talk more about the dollar status as the world's dominant reserve currency and potential challenges to that position.James Lord: This sounds like a great idea, Mike. Talk to you soon.David Adams: Likewise. Thanks for having me on the show and look forward to our next conversation.Michael Zezas: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

-Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets-Mark McCormick, Global Head of FX Strategy, TD Securities-Sonal Desai, Fixed Income CIO, Franklin TempletonLori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets reacts to big swings in mega-cap tech stock prices, saying "growth investors get angsty." Mark McCormick of TD Securities discusses the historic moves in the Japanese Yen, saying the BOJ will be forced to tighten policy more than what's currently priced-in. Sonal Desai of Franklin Templeton previews Wednesday's Fed decision and shares her outlook on the bond market, saying the long end of the yield curve will move higher over time. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Saxo has recently released a quarterly report titled “2024: The Wasted Year”. But why is 2024 a wasted year? What lies ahead for the upcoming quarter, and how can investors navigate the uncertainties surrounding rate cuts, politics and geopolitical issues? On Money in the Market, Hongbin Jeong speaks to Charu Chanana, Head of FX Strategy and Global Market Strategist at Saxo, to find out more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In today's episode, Charu Chanana, Saxo's Head of FX Strategy and macro expert, discusses the latest macro and forex news, and what investors should be aware of in the coming week. With guest host Melody Morgan.  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.  Click here to open an account with Saxo. 

Charu Chanana, Head of FX Strategy & Market Strategist, SAXO Singapore, discusses Taylor Swift's concert tour and its likely impact on Singapore's economy; expectations for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony and the upcoming US jobs report; and expectations for China's two sessions and whether market momentum will continue.   Presented by Ryan Huang Podcast edited by Emaad Akhtar (eakhtar@sph.com.sg)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With November's elections looming, we assess the state of play, key policy issues and implications for the Federal Reserve and the US dollar with Ryan Wang, US Economist, and Daragh Maher, Head of FX Strategy, US. Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/61/GWGnfqJStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/ or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We discuss the outlook for the dollar and FX markets with focus on select Asia currencies: CNY, JPY and Antipodean FX. Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ben Shatil, FX Strategy and Japan Economics This podcast was recorded on 12 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4599991-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence Sr. Technology Analyst, breaks down the shifting AI landscape amid Sam Altman's move to Microsoft. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi US Chief Economist, says there is no urgency for the Fed to cut rates. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, discusses troubling new poll numbers for President Biden. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says 2024 could see major changes in the foreign exchange market. Mike Froman, Council on Foreign Relations President, says that bipartisan consensus on foreign policy and national security still remains despite the US never being more politically polarized.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cathie Wood, ARK Invest CEO & CIO, discusses Ark acquiring Rize ETF. Patrick Armstrong, Plurimi Wealth Chief Investment Officer, doesn't see inflation falling to the Fed's 2% mandate. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says we can get to EUR-USD parity. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Economic Research, says China is exporting deflation and goods prices to the rest of the world.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Max Kettner of HSBS says tech still has room to run over the next few weeks. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President sees a higher chance of a US recession than he did before. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the euro will feel the impact of global crises more than the US dollar. Simon French, Panmure Gordon Chief Economist and Head of Research looks ahead to Thursday's BOE rate decision. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Head of US Large-Cap Bank Research says Goldman Sachs shares would probably go down if David Solomon were fired today. Sebastien Page, T. Rowe Price Chief Investment Officer and Head of Global Multi-Asset says the greatest risk right now is a selloff in stocks. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global head of FX Strategy says the FX market is in a tight range. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director weighs in on the likelihood that President Trump will participate in next weeks GOP debate. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon Sr. Market Strategist, says "everything is on the table" for the BOJ after they announced a surprise loosening of yield curve controls. Jonathan Pingle, UBS Chief US Economist, says the US is still a long way from price stability. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the BOJ's surprise yield curve actions were to "take themselves away from being pushed into a corner by market conditions." Steve Chiavarone, Federated Hermes Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, sees core CPI at 3.9% this year. Jay Pelosky, TPW Advisory Principal & Founder, says "we're at the end of the rate hiking cycle in the west." Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jen Rie, Senior Litigation Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss Microsoft winning a court nod to buy Activision in a loss for the FTC. David Schassler, Portfolio Manager and Head of Quantitative Investment Solutions at VanEck, discusses inflation and his Inflation Allocation ETF (RAAX). He can also discuss broad markets, real assets, asset allocation, rates, and yields. Alison Williams, Senior Global Banks and Asset Managers Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss proposed capital requirements from Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr and previews bank earnings. John Butler, Senior TMT analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss telecom and media. Jane Foley, Managing Director and Head of FX Strategy at Rabobank, joins to discuss dollar strength and the impact of inflation. Bloomberg host Kailey Leinz joins us from Washington to give us the latest on the LIV Golf Senate hearing and what lawmakers are saying. Martha Heller, CEO and founder of Heller Search Associates, discusses open tech roles and outlook for tech hiring amid a softening jobs report and economic uncertainty ahead. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Jess Menton.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q82UbL   - This special episode of the podcast features an in-depth view on how to invest in commodities, one of the more difficult to understand asset classes at first glance for the novice, whether using futures, equities and other exchange traded products. The podcast is hosted by Saxo Head of FX Strategy, John Hardy and features Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo   - Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mandeep Singh, Senior Tech Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss the new Twitter CEO. Bloomberg's Bailey Lipschultz also joins. Jane Foley, Managing Director and Head of FX Strategy at Rabobank, joins to discuss dollar strength and the impact of inflation and a potential debt default on US currency. Robert Teeter, Head of Investment Policy & Strategy Group at Silvercrest Asset Management, joins in studio to discuss sectors and stocks on the move and what could outperform the market amid various economic headwinds. Dan Ives, Senior Equity Analyst at WedBush Securities, explains why he thinks Linda Yaccarino potentially becoming the next CEO of Twitter would be a “home run.” Mark Douglas, CEO at MNTN, also joins to talk about the NBC shakeup and streaming wars. He can also discuss its impact on Peacock and streaming, as well as Tesla. Shaheen Contractor, ESG Research Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss the backlash causing ESG ETF closing. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Kriti Gupta, and Madison Mills.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Wall Street Reporter, and Alison Williams, Senior Global Banks and Asset Managers Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, join the show for the weekly Friday wall street roundup, discussing bank earnings and other wall street news. Mari Shor, Senior Equity Analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, joins to discuss the latest retail sales figures and consumer strength. Jane Foley, Managing Director and Head of FX Strategy at Rabobank, joins to discuss the weakening of the dollar and euro strength amid economic uncertainty. Herman Chan, Senior Analyst: US Regional Banks & Fintech with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to break down PNC earnings and other things we learned about regional bank on earnings day for big banks. Simone Foxman, reporter with Bloomberg News and Television, joins to discuss airlines and energy, focusing on Boeing's recent production issue, airline earnings, and how oil prices and sticky inflation affect consumer travel and spending. Huw van Steenis, partner at Oliver Wyman, joins the program to discuss the latest on financial stability in the banking sector, in the US and globally. Hosted by Kriti Gupta and Jess Menton.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stephen Pagliuca, Bain Capital Senior Advisor & Co-Owner of the Boston Celtics, sees the return of the golden age of credit. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, reacts to reports of a surprise nomination for Kazuo Ueda to take helm at the Bank of Japan. Gregory Staples, DWS Group Head Of Fixed Income North America, says January's strong rally may have gone a little bit too far. Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, warns of a tough environment for companies going forward. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, says he's not 'massively bullish' on equities just yet. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says we could get a 'slightly less dovish' Bank of Japan when Kuroda steps down as governor. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank Chief Global Strategist & Head of Asset Allocation, sees the market going sideways in 2Q. William McDonough, Elements Funds Founder, CEO & Lead Portfolio Manager, discusses Tesla ahead of its earnings. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Iain Stealey, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Fixed Income CIO, says the market shouldn't be concerned about the US debt ceiling yet. Alifia Doriwala, RockCreek Group Managing Director, says China is still the biggest determinant in an EM portfolio. Ralph Acampora, Chartered Market Technicians Co-Founder, thinks we're making a long-term bottom in this bull market. Jeremy Stretch, CIBC Head of G-10 FX Strategy, explains why he thinks Europe might avoid a negative GDP print. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says we could see US GDP at 2% in 2023. Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Equity Strategy, says the S&P 500 can reach 4,200 this year. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, expects the dollar to end the year 'a little bit stronger." Mike Wirth, Chevron CEO, says China's re-opening could provide a boost to oil prices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, says the US still has a strong and robust labor market, but it is at risk of higher wage pressure.Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, explains why she favors small caps right now. Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Global Head of Macro Strategy, says it's not yet time to signal an "all clear" for bonds. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says it's a new world for euro-dollar. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jeremy Stretch, CIBC Head of G-10 FX Strategy, says the ECB faces greater potential policy problems compared to the Federal Reserve amid amplified core inflationary pressures. Jonathan Pingle, UBS Chief US Economist, says the ECB is a little bit behind the Fed. Ashok Bhatia, Neuberger Berman Fixed Income Deputy CIO, suggests we're entering a period where central banks are "divided" on tackling inflation. John Ryding, Brean Capital Chief Economic Advisor, says the BOE and ECB's main problem is that policy rates are "nowhere near restrictive."  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Arindam Sandilya, Meera Chandan, Benjamin Shatil, James Nelligan, Patrick Locke and Antonin Delair discuss JPMorgan's Global FX Strategy outlook for 2023. Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Ben Shatil, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 23 November 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4268149-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4270636-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Torsten Slok, Apollo Management Chief Economist, says the Fed might actually be able to achieve a soft landing. Ben Laidler, eToro Global Markets Strategist, says the market bottom is now in. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says it's a really interesting moment for the euro. Tina Fordham, Fordham Global Foresight Founder & Geopolitical Strategist, says the US republic, as we know it, faces some serious pressures. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Equity Derivatives & Quantitative Strategist, thinks the Fed is about to downshift. Amos Hochstein, Special Presidential Coordinator for Global Infrastructure and Energy Security, says the US still maintains ties with Saudi Arabia despite the “significant disagreement” over the OPEC+ decision to cut oil output. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says central banks would love to see a reversal in dollar strength. Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, says the Fed is eager for a downshift. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist, says the bear market will probably be over sometime in the first quarter of 2023. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of US Economics Research, says the Fed is failing miserably if they are viewing the labor market as the conduit to achieve their inflation objectives. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says we may have to wait for Powell's press conference next week to confirm or reject the Fed-pause narrative. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy, sees "huge opportunities" in fixed income. Stephen Schork, The Schork Group President, says the world is heading into the winter with a thimble of oil. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, reacts to US jobless claims. Bipan Rai, CIBC Capital Markets NA Head of FX Strategy, expects rates to remain higher for longer. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andrew Griffith, UK Financial Secretary to the Treasury and City Minister, says the UK Government, the OBR and the Bank of England are all working in a coordinated fashion. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the pound still remains very vulnerable. Regina Mayor, KPMG Global Head of Energy, is optimistic about the European energy picture in in the near term. Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group Chief Investment Strategist, says thinks the Fed is close to a blink on policy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andrew Sheets Morgan Stanley Chief Cross Asset Strategist, says we are into the thick of what we think is going to be a disappointing earnings revision lower. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says she can't dismiss the possibility of parity between the British pound and the US dollar. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale US Rates Strategy Head, says all assets are very correlated right now. José Antonio Ocampo, Colombia Finance Minister, discusses the impact of inflation on his nation's economy, plans to raise capital, and growth in tourism. Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist, says to expect earnings to be lower across the board if the economy is going to slow down enough to get inflationary pressures under control. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist, says any talk of a Fed pivot at this point is premature. Mandy Xu, Credit Suisse Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy, suggests going long gold as real yields peak. Mark McCormick, TD Global Head of FX Strategy, expects to see a dollar peak by next year. John Ryding, Brean Capital Chief Economic Advisor, says ultimately the runway is too short for a soft landing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

 Andrew Slimmon, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says markets are in a standing mode right now. Blerina Uruci, T. Rowe Price US Economist, says the recession doom and gloom is exaggerated. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research President, says inflation is going to stay a problem. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says the bulk of the euro-dollar move is behind us. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist, says markets are starting to smell a slowdown. Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Global Head of Macro Strategy, says it's inevitable that the Fed and other central banks will feel political pressure. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says we could see euro-dollar parity. Seema Shah, Principal Global Investors Chief Strategist, says we could see a technical rally over the next couple of months, but it won't be sustained. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist, says a US recession is likely to be shallow if it happens. Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, says all inflation is the same for the Fed at the moment. Tina Fordham, Fordham Global Foresight Geopolitical Strategist & Founder, discusses the tensions governments are facing over inflation and wages. Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Global Head of FX Strategy, says we're seeing the end of central banks using balance sheets to manipulate FX rates.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

 Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist, says Jerome Powell needs to continue convincing people that the Fed will do whatever it takes to fight inflation. Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says Bitcoin needs to recover more before considering it to be in a new trend. Linda Duessel, Federated Hermes Senior Equity Strategist, says now is not the time to buy. Mark McCormick, TD Securities Global Head of FX Strategy, says Bank of Japan policy itself is broken. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman and Host of "Bloomberg Wealth," discusses his interview with Khosla Ventures Founder Vinod Khosla.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/38Lgauf   - Today's podcast looks at the latest weak session for global equity markets, the potential mindset on inflationary risks having possibly pivoted as shown in the US yield curve as the Fed may be irrevocably behind the curve for now. What this could mean for equities in terms of historic market parallels is explored - particularly the interesting way that German equities were valued during the varying phases of the early 1920's hyperinflation. Today's pod is a one-man show with John J. Hardy, head of FX Strategy. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya from FX Strategy discuss the recent China and Fed developments and implications for the FX macro landscape.   This podcast was recorded on 23 March 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4037742-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.