Podcasts about rbnz

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The latest suburb-level data confirms that the housing market's gentle downward drift is highly widespread, with approximately 79% of house suburbs and 74% of townhouse suburbs recording value drops over the three months to September.This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson discuss Cotality's newly released Mapping the Market interactive data. They outline the sharp geographical splits - where Auckland and Wellington suburbs sit firmly at the bottom of the pile, while farming-backed hubs in Canterbury, Southland, and Otago continue to show structural resilience.The team also looks ahead to Thursday's highly anticipated Q2 GDP release. With the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) marking its 14th consecutive month above neutral expansion and the services sector (PSI) edging back into growth at 51.2, the guys discuss whether a surprisingly resilient economy gives the RBNZ a green light to hike the OCR again sooner rather than later.This week we discuss:Mapping the Market Suburb Release: Why nearly 80% of suburbs saw declines, and how to use the interactive map to compare townhouses versus standalone homes.The Regional Agrarian Shield: Why farming economies are keeping southern suburbs buoyant while services-heavy Auckland and Wellington softenEconomic Green Shoots: Analyzing the 14th consecutive month of PMI expansion (+50.0) and the PSI's return to positive territory at 51.2.Q2 GDP Preview: Why major bank forecasts of a +0.1% to +0.3% lift show the economy is weathering geopolitical headwinds better than expected.OCR October vs. December: Will a resilient GDP track encourage the RBNZ to implement a pre-election rate hike on October 28?

SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · Jacki Neumann, Head of Capital Markets at Sharesies Note: Filmed Monday 7 September ↑ WHAT'S UP The NZX 50 gained 1.5%, while US indices held their ground with the S&P 500 up 0.1% and the Nasdaq up 0.4%. Dell was the tech sector’s star, jumping almost 16% on record AI server orders of US$61 billion and a US$25 billion lift to full-year revenue guidance. ↓ WHAT'S DOWN The ASX 200 fell 1%, dragged partly by a string of index heavyweights trading ex-dividend, including CSL, Brambles, and BlueScope, while Corporate Travel Management plunged over 80% as trading resumed after a long halt, and Broadcom slipped close to 3% on a cautious near-term forecast. ! BIGGEST SURPRISES Bond yields surged to multi-decade highs in multiple markets: Australian 10-year yields hitting 5.2% (their highest since 2011), UK Gilts at 5.2% and Japanese JGBs breaching 3% for the first time in 30 years. At home, Q2 GDP growth of 2.1% ran above the economy's sustainable speed limit, lifting the odds of a September RBA hike to around 70%. ◎ WHAT TO WATCH It's a quieter week, with US markets shut for Labor Day before all eyes turn to Friday's US August CPI, the key input ahead of the Fed's next decision. In Australia, Tuesday brings Westpac Consumer Sentiment, NAB Business Confidence and speeches from two RBA officials. ◈ BIGGER PICTURE We’re seeing a global repricing of interest rate risk, as re-escalating Middle East tensions push oil back up and stoke inflation fears from Sydney to Tokyo. Central banks are pulling in different directions, with the RBNZ hiking but softening its tone, the RBA now odds-on to move, and the Fed facing mixed signals. Next week's US CPI could prove decisive for where rates head from here. Disclaimer: Sharesies Market Movements is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. This video is general market commentary and educational in nature. It is not financial advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is current at the time of recording and may be subject to change. We do not provide recommendations and nothing in this video should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you require personal financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions, including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers, are available on our relevant Australian or NZ website.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The August Cotality Home Value Index is out, showing a -0.4% monthly decline across Aotearoa New Zealand—marking the fifth consecutive month of value contraction. However, looking at property purely through the lens of the "fall from the peak" might be completely skewing our view of the market.This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the August data. They explore why looking at the 10-year compound annual growth rate (+3.4% per year) offers a much more realistic picture of the "new normal" for capital gains, while stripping out the artificial post-COVID boom and bust.The guys also break down why Auckland apartments plunged -7.8% over the past year compared to just -2.2% for standalone houses, why dwelling consents keep defying gravity (hitting a 3-year high of 41,000 annually), and review the major trading banks' reactions to last week's 2.75% OCR decision. Plus, Father's Day debriefs, scorched almonds, and the All Blacks' test in Johannesburg.This week we discuss:August HVI Breakdown: Why values fell -0.4% in August (down -1.0% YoY), led by weakness in Te Whanganui-a-Tara / Wellington (-0.6%) and Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland (-0.5%).The 10-Year Growth Benchmark: Why the 10-year average annual growth rate of 3.4% represents the true baseline for long-term property performance.Property Type Divide: The stark split in Tāmaki Makaurau, where apartments dropped -7.8% over the past year while standalone houses fell only -2.2%.Construction Defies Gravity: Why July dwelling consents rose 10% YoY (41,000 annual running total) despite rising supply and cost pressures.The Bank Consensus on OCR: How ANZ, ASB, Westpac, BNZ, and Kiwibank interpreted the RBNZ's measured 25bps hike to 2.75%.Weekend Sports Wrap: All Blacks fall short in the Ellis Park cauldron, Father's Day rowing sessions, and Northland's upcoming Shield defence against Waikato.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and team debate the dollar outlook (again) following the firm employment report. Yen developments on GPIF/ BoJ are discussed, as well as latest developments on the Antipodeans.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Australian and New Zealand Interest Rate Strategy Junya Tanase, Japan Markets Research Ikue Saito, Japan Markets Research   This podcast was recorded on 04 September 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5432337-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Send Us A Message! Let us know what you think.Buyer choice has jumped by 45% as national listings hit 33,000 homes—so what does this "new normal" mean for house prices and negotiation power? Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank has lifted the Official Cash Rate to 2.75%, a landmark MBIE ruling threatens Christchurch's 5,000 Airbnbs, and an expert panel has dissected the fatal design flaws in Labour's proposed Capital Gains Tax. In Episode 26 of New Zealand Property Insights, hosts Paul and Debbie Roberts break down the latest data from the RBNZ, Realestate.co.nz, MBIE, and the Salvation Army to deliver real facts without the headline hype. What You'll Learn in This Episode:OCR Hike & Capital Gains Tax Flaws: Why the RBNZ raised the OCR by 25bps to 2.75%, and why top economists and tax specialists agree Labour's CGT design fails—including a total lack of inflation adjustment that levies a $280,000 tax bill on zero real profit. Christchurch Airbnb Crackdown: How a landmark MBIE ruling requiring commercial visitor accommodation compliance (fire safety & disability access) could impact short-term rentals nationwide. 33,000 Homes on Market: Why buyer inventory has jumped 45% over three years, how shortening the Bright-line test to 2 years encouraged investor listings, and why national average asking prices ($849,362) have settled into a "new normal". Regional Clearance Rates: Why Canterbury inventory takes just 15 weeks to clear while Coromandel takes 56 weeks and Northland takes 48 weeks. Salvation Army Housing Report: Why building 9.1% more homes hasn't solved housing stress, and how Aucklanders relocating to provincial cities are shrinking local rental pools. Support the showDisclaimer: The information provided in this video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. We recommend seeking advice from a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.*Property Advice Group Limited trading as Property Apprentice has been granted a FULL Licence with the Financial Markets Authority of New Zealand. (FSP Number: FSP157564) Debbie Roberts | Financial Adviser (FSP221305) For our Public disclosure statement please go to our website or you may request a copy free of charge.

S&P futures are flat following a lower Asia session. Technology-heavy markets, including South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, saw steep declines as investment sentiment continues to sour amidst a higher interest rate environment. Chinese internet and IT stocks dragged the Hang Seng lower, while weaker sentiment extended to India and Southeast Asia. New Zealand bucked the broader trend, gaining slightly following the RBNZ rate hike decision. European equity markets are also weaker this morning.

US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st.IRGC said it targeted US bases in Iraq, with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain while the IRGC added that two tankers were blown up after striking mines in the Strait.Global equities continue to pull back, with NQ futures falling below 29k.USD firms against most peers; NZD underperforms after RBNZ fails to impress hawks, JPY outperforms after BoJ hawk Takata.USTs are flat, whilst Bunds and Gilts are pressured by elevated gas prices.Crude takes a breather following another night of US-Iran hostilities; metals feel no reprieve.Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders (Jul), ADP Employment Change (Aug), New Zealand Terms of Trade (Q2), BoC Announcement, Fed Beige Book. Comments from Fed's Williams, BoC's Macklem & Rogers. Earnings from Broadcom, Hewlett Packard Enterprise & Snowflake.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st.IRGC said it targeted US bases in Iraq, with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain, while Kuwaiti air defences confronted attacks by hostile drones.Crude futures continued to rally after surging by at least 5% yesterday as the US and Iran exchanged a fresh wave of strikes.NZD/USD underperformed after the RBNZ hiked the OCR by 25bps to 2.75%, which was widely expected, although the central bank refrained from any major hawkish surprises.APAC stocks were pressured as the risk-off mood persisted following a surge in oil prices and upside in yields; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders (Jul), ADP Employment Change (Aug), New Zealand Terms of Trade (Q2), BoC Announcement, Fed Beige Book. Comments from ECB's Nagel, BoC's Macklem & Roger. Earnings from Broadcom, Hewlett Packard Enterprise & Snowflake.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lifted the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. While the hike brings monetary policy closer to a neutral setting, the tone of the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement was distinctly cautious and data-dependent.In this special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the RBNZ's decision just 40 minutes after its release. They break down the consensus vote, analyse why a 4-to-2 committee split on inflation risks led to the hike, and explain why an October rate rise looks far less likely with the general election looming.The guys also dive into the Reserve Bank's detailed economic forecasts - including flat house price projections for the next 3 to 4 quarters - and explain why fixed mortgage rates are unlikely to see a sudden spike off the back of this decision.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us Fan MailDollar rallies as US-Iran strikes lift oil and bolster Fed hike bets. Yenrebounds as BoJ Gov. Ueda appears ready to raise interest rates. Kiwi fallsas RBNZ hikes, but appears less hawkish than expected. Wall Street andgold tumble amid renewed inflation fears.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · Jacki Neumann, Head of Capital Markets at Sharesies Note: Filmed Monday 31 August ↑ WHAT'S UP — US indices edged higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq up 0.9%, while the ASX 200 added 0.4%, propelled by results including Qantas’ 4.8% jump on a $2.06 billion underlying profit, Coles rising 5%, and NEXTDC beating guidance with revenue up 16% on surging AI infrastructure demand. ↓ WHAT'S DOWN — The NZX 50 fell 1.5% in its worst week since May, snapping three weeks of gains. DroneShield sank 11% despite a 74% revenue jump as it swung to a $32.2 million loss, Air New Zealand posted a $336 million full-year pre-tax loss, and Xero drew a 70.6% protest vote against its remuneration report. ! BIGGEST SURPRISES — Australia's July CPI ran hotter than expected at 3.5%, with trimmed mean inflation at 3.6%, lifting the odds of an RBA hike by year-end to 78% from 67%. At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s tone was hawkish, pushing September US rate-rise odds from around 36% to nearly 60%. ◎ WHAT TO WATCH — The RBNZ meets Wednesday, with markets expecting a 25 basis point hike from 2.5%, and Australia's Q2 GDP lands the same day. In the US, the August employment report on Friday will be a key read ahead of the Fed's next decision on September 16. ◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Inflation is proving stickier than hoped, with a hot Australian CPI and a hawkish Warsh pushing rate-hike expectations sharply higher on both sides of the Pacific. The AI build-out still looks robust — Nvidia flagged hyperscaler capex near US$800 billion this year — but its warning on shrinking margins is a reminder that even the AI winners face cost pressure. Disclaimer: Sharesies Market Movements is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. This video is general market commentary and educational in nature. It is not financial advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is current at the time of recording and may be subject to change. We do not provide recommendations and nothing in this video should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you require personal financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions, including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers, are available on our relevant Australian or NZ website.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After years of national hand-wringing, housing affordability in New Zealand has officially returned to long-term averages. Falling house prices, lower interest rates, and rising wages have combined to bring the value-to-income ratio back down to 6.7 - exactly where the historical average has sat since 2004.This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the highly anticipated 6-monthly Housing Affordability Report. They discuss why mortgage servicing now takes up 40% of median household income, why years to save a deposit has dropped to 8.9 years, and why regional data paints vastly different pictures for centres like Wellington versus Tauranga.The guys also dive into the latest macroeconomic data - including softer inflation and a slight lift in card spending - and explain why "good news is bad" when it comes to the Reserve Bank's upcoming OCR decision. Plus, Nick delivers a passionate wrap-up of an unforgettable weekend of rugby, from the Taniwha claiming the Ranfurly Shield to the All Blacks' epic win at Ellis Park.This week we discuss:Affordability Returns: Why all four major housing affordability measures are finally back to (or below) long-term historical averages.The Mortgage Burden: How servicing a new mortgage at an 80% LVR now requires 40% of gross household income.Regional Nuance: Why Wellington is now the most affordable main centre, and why Tauranga's numbers are skewed by wealth over income.Macro Data Mix-Up: How softer price indices and slightly stronger card spending impact the upcoming OCR call.The 'Good News is Bad' OCR Dilemma: Why an improving economy might just give the RBNZ the confidence to hold or hike rates again.Rugby Wrap: The Taniwha's historic Ranfurly Shield win, the All Blacks at Ellis Park, and the Warriors topping the NRL table. 

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we head into the final week of the northern holiday season with financial markets reacting to tough news on multiple fronts. US missteps are catching up with them and that is driving higher interest rates and a lower USD, both a which involve an economic squeeze. Then there is the collapse the US-Canada trade relations which has pushed Canada to matching the new US tariffs. This will hurt both countries, Canada as expected, but the US more than they realise. Carney has brought back the Trudeau response, and this time Canadians have rallied around that reaction. Some significant parts of the US are going to get much higher prices. And as Canada supplies the most of its imported oil and gas, if Canada adds tariffs there, the impact on the US will be magnified. All this will be grist for the Jackson Hole symposium which will be on from Friday to Sunday (NZT). There will be some worried central bankers showing up, and that probably includes Kevin Warsh, likely feeling undermined by Scott Bessent. The outlook on global interest rates and long-term sovereign yields will again be a key focus this week as investors grapple with rising energy prices, increasing deficit spending, and soaring corporate debt. In the US it will be about personal income and spending, PCE inflation, and durable goods data for July, in addition to the key annual revision to nonfarm payrolls. Japan will release consumer confidence survey results and its jobless rate, while rate decisions are due in Korea and Thailand which are widely expected to keep their policy rates unchanged at 1% and 2.75%, respectively, while the Philippine central bank could deliver a +25 bps rate hike to 5% as the country continues to face elevated energy and food prices alongside recent wage increases. Locally it will be about Q2-2026 retail trade outcomes and current employment indicators, some mortgage and KiwiSaver data, and the week will end with the June update to the RBNZ's Dashboard. And in Australia, investors will watch July inflation data where an easing from 3.8% to 3.2% is expected. And Q2 capital expenditure and household spending figures will also drop this week In China, investors will focus on the National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting in Beijing from August 25-28, where authorities could signal additional policy support following a string of weak economic data. They will also release July industrial profit results. Over the weekend, China reported US$11.1 bln in foreign direct investment in July, which was half the US$22.8 bln in July 2025. Year to date, their foreign direct investment is running -8.8% lower than in the same period a year ago. And also over the weekend China said its forklift sales are going gangbusters in 2026, both for internal use and for export. CPI inflation rose to 1.9% in Japan in July, their highest since December 2025. (Food prices were up +3.5%.) While the headline rate and the core rate both remain below the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, the rising trend may be enough for them to raise their 1% policy rate at their next review on September 18, 2026. They have other reasons to raise their policy rate (like, defending the yen, yielding to the US, needing to get back to 'normal' at some stage, etc.) so this may swing it. Japanese business activity is expanding at its quickest rate for six months in August, according to the 'flash' PMI data released today. There were good gains for the factory sector, and these were bolstered by modest gains in their services sector. Of not was a steeper rise in new orders. Cost pressures continued to ease from June's recent record, but remained sharp overall, leading to another near-record increase in selling prices. Businesses are finding they can pass on the extra costs. The 'flash' August PMI's for India show rising activity, especially in their services sector. In the US, the August 'flash' PMI survey from S&P Global shows factory activity easing and now at a five month low. But the services sector is rising with a marginally stronger expansion. Input cost pressures have remained elevated but mainly due to rising fuel prices. Diesel is up +8.4% from a month ago, petrol up +2.2%. Consumer price inflation is biting harder now in the US. Trump announced he will temporarily ease beef tariffs to help lower prices. Local beef producers weren't impressed, warning the move would hurt efforts to rebuild herds. And industry observers say the move will have little effect on the high prices. For someone who claims to love free-market capitalism, he acts in a very interventionist, the-government-knows-best manner. Canada posted a good retail increase for the year to June, up +5.2% although this was a slowing from May. But their July result looks like it will fade somewhat. The weekend USMCA trade deal failure won't help of course. The EU consumer sentiment survey retailed its July improvement in August. It is still deeply negative, but less so that at any time since February. And the ECB updated its inflation expectations survey for July and that shows a minor decrease to 2.9% over the next twelve months, from 3.0% in June. Eurozone business activity continues to rise in August amid stronger manufacturing growth, with their factory PMI now at a 51 month high. According to the S&P Global 'flash' PMIs for August, growth in the Australian private sector is softer this month as the cost environment becomes more challenging in both the factory and services sectors. But both are still expanding. They are still getting rising new orders (in both sectors), but cost pressures have picked up in August. However the ability to pass those extra costs on retreated to its weakest of 2026. And in freight news, El Niño is having an impact on Panama Canal traffic volumes. The authority which runs it says it is reducing traffic levels to 32 ships per day from 36 currently, due to the low water levels. That is an -11% reduction. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.74%, unchanged from Saturday, up +5 bps for the week.  The price of gold is up, now at US$4607/oz, down -US$14 from Saturday at this time, up +US$230 or +5.5% for the week. Silver has dipped -50 USc to just over US$69/oz. Oil prices are unchanged from Saturday at just over US$87/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just under US$94.50/bbl and up +US$1. From a week ago these prices are +7% higher from then.  The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday at just over 59.8 USc, up +90 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 63.2, down marginally from Saturday on a yen shift, but up +80 bps from this time last week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,147 and down a minor -0.3% from Saturday, but up a whopping +23% jump from last week at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been modest at just on +/-1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID  TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in Q2 2026 - the highest level in over a decade. However, beneath the headline number lies an encouraging trend for the residential property market: total employment actually expanded, meaning the unemployment jump was driven by an expanding labour force rather than mass job destruction.This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Q2 labour market data. They examine why insulated homeowner employment is keeping non-performing loans and mortgagee sales at near-record lows, alongside a striking North-South Island economic divide where North Island unemployment sits at 6.0% compared to just 3.7% in the South Island. The guys also break down Kelvin's latest analysis of Reserve Bank mortgage lending data. They cover why 50% to 60% of first-home buyers continue to secure low-deposit finance, the ongoing borrower shift toward two-year fixed mortgage terms, and why interest-only lending remains strictly controlled despite broader economic headwinds. This week we discuss:Q2 Labour Market Breakdown: Why 5.6% unemployment is driven by growing labour supply rather than job destruction. Housing Market Immunity: How steady employment among existing homeowners prevents non-performing loans and forced sales. Regional Labour Disparities: The North Island (6.0%) versus South Island (3.7%) unemployment divide, led by Northland (8.8%) and Auckland (6.5%). Reserve Bank Lending Trends: Key takeaways from mortgage data, including active refinancing and low interest-only volumes. Mortgage Term Shifts: Why borrowers are increasingly locking in two-year fixed rates as interest rate insurance. September 2nd OCR Runway: How subdued wage growth (2.0%) impacts Reserve Bank inflation expectations ahead of the upcoming OCR statement. 

An economist [I used to respect] was recently asked, why is debt getting more expensive?His response?"this is what happens when your economy is starting to show some growth and the risk for inflationary pressures shift upward."It's almost like our economists care too much about getting a job at the RBNZ than they do speaking the truth. Read more.Meanwhile, just over half of all Kiwis, feel unprepared for retirement (and that includes debt-free homeowners who thought they'd done everything right.) Something has to be done to fix this, but is asking the government to make more rules around KiwiSaver really the right answer? Ben Davin and Mark White-Robinson join me to discuss. If you'd like to sign up to Feijoa, enter in the NZINVESTOR code at checkout for a discount.Book in a free 15-min phone call with Darcy Ungaro (financial adviser).Sign up to the fortnightly newsletter!Thank You Swyftx: With over 1 million customers across New Zealand and Australia. Ask yourself …”Where can crypto take you?". Check out Swyftx.Affiliate Links!The Bitcoin Adviser: Plan for intergenerational digital wealth.Hatch: For US markets.Revolut: For a new type of banking.Sharesies: For local, and international markets.Loan My Coins: Bitcoin lending product.Exodus: Get rewards on your first $2,500 of swapsGet Social:Follow on YouTube , Instagram, TikTok: @theeverydayinvestor, X (@UngaroDarcy), LinkedIn, or subscribe on Substack.www.radicalinvestment.co.nz________________________Disclaimer: Please act independently from any content provided in these episodes; it's not financial advice, because there's no accounting for your individual circumstances, and nothing we say is intended as a recommendation. Do your own research, and take a broad range of opinions into account. Ideally, engage a financial adviser / pay for advice!

The Reserve Bank's chief economist Paul Conway says he is focused on inflation expectations, and their flow on effects into the wider economy. 

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Residential property transactions across New Zealand have recorded six consecutive months of year-on-year declines. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest monthly Chart Pack data, revealing that first-half 2026 sales volumes reached 43,183 - down 4.2% compared to the same period in 2025. We explore why high listing stock and broader economic caution are keeping buyers and sellers in a stalemate, while noting that a lack of distress selling continues to keep the market anchored.The guys also dissect the Q2 CPI inflation release, which landed at 4.1% annually. While slightly above the Reserve Bank's revised 3.9% forecast, the print landed directly in line with commercial bank expectations. We break down the stark divergence within the data: tradable inflation spiked to 4.9% off the back of global fuel pressures, while domestic non-tradable inflation eased slightly to 3.4%. Furthermore, annual rental growth has slowed to just 0.5% - the weakest rate of increase in more than two decades.Finally, we discuss Stats NZ's official roadmap to introduce a monthly CPI release by August 2027, preview the upcoming July Home Value Index, and evaluate why the RBNZ remains firmly on track for an Official Cash Rate increase at the September 2nd statement.This week we discuss:Six Months of Falling Sales: Why H1 2026 transaction volumes contracted 4.2% year-on-year, missing early expectations of a 5% to 10% recovery.Regional Sales Dynamics: Analysing the rolling three-month volume trends, from Dunedin's 7.4% rise to Auckland's 7.8% drop.The 4.1% CPI Reality Check: Breaking down the Q2 inflation print and why headline numbers drive consumer inflation expectations.Tradable vs. Non-Tradable Divergence: How fuel costs drove tradables to 4.9% while non-tradable domestic pressures softened to 3.4%.20-Year Low for Rent Growth: What annual rental growth of just 0.5% means for residential landlord yields.The Path to September 2nd: Why the Reserve Bank is expected to push the OCR closer to its neutral target (~3.25%) despite weak consumer activity.Official Monthly CPI Roadmap: Stats NZ's timeline to transition from quarterly inflation tracking to monthly Tier-1 reporting by August 2027.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Construction output costs are tracking upward, but residential builders are absorbing the financial hit. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson analyse the newly released Q2 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI). The data shows an annualised cost acceleration to 3.5% for the second quarter, up from 3.0% in Q1. We break down the structural reasons why these rising input costs - driven by steel and fuel surcharges - are not being passed on to consumers, as flat residential values and high existing listing volumes force builders to sacrifice their margins.The guys also preview the critical Q2 CPI inflation drop. Backed by the latest June Selected Price Indexes (SPI) data, which covers roughly 45% of the consumer basket, major trading bank economists have upgraded their near-term inflation projections to between 3.9% and 4.1%. We discuss what this means for the Reserve Bank's targeted return to neutrality and why the upcoming September 2nd Official Cash Rate decision remains firmly aligned for another baseline increase.Finally, we explore the highly volatile net migration metrics, detailing the staggering 23% downward revision to April's population data, and look at the sharp 1.4% drop in June electronic card spending that signals ongoing consumer caution.This week we discuss:The Q2 CCCI Acceleration: Why construction output costs rose to 3.5% annually and why the long-term sector average remains well below the post-COVID peak.The Margin Squeeze: How high volumes of competing existing housing stock prevent builders from passing input inflation through to consumers.The Selected Price Indexes: Analysing the mixed signals from June's fuel and food metrics ahead of tomorrow's official CPI release.The 3.9% Inflation Floor: Why the RBNZ adjusted its baseline inflation forecast down from 4.2% at the recent Monetary Policy Review.Population Revisions: The macro implications of Stats New Zealand erasing 5,000 people from April's net migration figures.The Sports Wrap: Spain's football World Cup victory, Ryan Fox's historic Open Championship win, and the All Blacks' dominant performance against Ireland.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send Us A Message! Let us know what you think.Is the Reserve Bank's latest interest rate hike a sudden shock to the system, or is it actually the clearest sign yet that the economic fog is finally lifting? In this episode of the Week in Review, Debbie Roberts from Property Apprentice breaks down the wave of fresh real estate data for the week ending Friday, 10th of July, 2026. While the mainstream media headlines are busy dancing in panic over the central bank's shift to 2.5%, the underlying economic metrics tell a completely different story—revealing massive silver linings for both property buyers and landlords who look at the numbers with total discipline. The Five Core Topics Discussed:Topic 1: The Consensus OCR Reduction in Stimulus – Breaking down the RBNZ's unexpected decision to raise the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, why peak inflation has officially been slashed, and why interest rates may come down faster than bank economists previously projected. Topic 2: The Widening Regional Market Fracture – A deep dive into the latest QV House Price Index showing national values dropping slightly by 0.4%, while the market splits along strict regional lines with Christchurch outperforming Auckland and Wellington. Topic 3: Why "Risky" Properties are Outperforming the Broader Market – Analyzing the bombshell Cotality report revealing that flood-susceptible homes have gained 26.1% in value since 2020—outgrowing unaffected zones as cost-conscious buyers hunt out $100,000 upfront discounts. Topic 4: The Auckland Rental Market Winter Reset – Looking past the headline shock of an 10.9% drop in rental enquiries to reveal why tenant demand remains fundamentally strong year-on-year, and how available stock listings have expanded buyer selection by 10.9%. Topic 5: The Pervasive Fall of Household Interest Costs – Unpacking the latest Westpac household finances chart pack proving that household interest spending has successfully declined for a fifth consecutive quarter, heavily supported by a 3.8% climb in disposable incomes. 

In this all-Antipodean edition of Macro Minutes, Robert Thompson and Mary Jo Vergara discuss the RBNZ hiking the OCR rates for the first time in three years with more to come, in contrast to the RBA, which is stepping back into the shadows after three quick-fire hikes in February, March, and May.Participants:Robert Thompson (Desk Strategy), Head of Australian Economics & Rates StrategyMary Jo Vergara (Desk Strategy), Senior Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The US continued to launch strikes for a third night, after President Trump stated that he would hit Iran “very hard” on Monday and Tuesday. Separately, Trump threatened to hit Iran's “Pickaxe Mountain”, an underground nuclear facility; Brent Aug'26 +1.9%.US President Trump also announced a naval blockade, which is set to begin at 21:00 BST / 16:00 EDT.APAC stocks were mostly in the red given the geopolitical environment and tech sell-off; European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open.DXY takes a breather; Kiwi outperforms following regional data and hawkish comments from RBNZ's Conway.USTs and Bunds remain pressured amidst the elevated energy prices and after Fed's Waller delivered hawkish remarks.Looking ahead, Highlights include German Wholesale Prices (Jun), Chinese M2 Money Supply (Jun), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Jun), US CPI (Jun), Fed Discount Rate Minutes (Jul), ECB President Lagarde-US Treasury Secretary Bessent meeting.Speakers including Fed Chair Warsh, Goolsbee, Barr, Cook & Bowman, BoE Governor Bailey, Supply from the Netherlands & Germany.Earnings from Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US continued to launch strikes for a third night, after President Trump stated that he would hit Iran “very hard” on Monday and Tuesday. Separately, Trump threatened to hit Iran's “Pickaxe Mountain”, an underground nuclear facility; Brent Sep'26 +4.0%.US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming as it recovers from Monday's selloff; US banking names kick of earnings.DXY tentative heading into CPI and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony; Kiwi outperforms after further hawkish RBNZ rhetoric.Fixed income benchmarks are softer amid energy moves and continued post-Waller hawkishness.Crude benchmarks grind higher on continued US-Iran updates while spot gold finds support above USD 4k/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Jun), Fed Discount Rate Minutes (Jul), ECB President Lagarde-US Treasury Secretary Bessent meeting, Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh, Goolsbee, Barr, Cook and Bowman, BoE Governor Bailey, Earnings from Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · 15 JULY 2026Laura Marwick & Jordan Cunningham, Sharesies Head of Data & Analytics Note: Filmed Tuesday 14 July ↑ WHAT’S UP — Meta surged 14.8% on plans to add 14 gigawatts of compute, driving the Nasdaq up 1.74% for its fourth gain in five weeks. SK Hynix's US debut raised US$26.5 billion, the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company. ↓ WHAT’S DOWN — The ASX 200 fell 0.4% to 8,806 as miners tumbled over 4%, while the Dow was down 0.5% and Russell 2000 0.6%. ! BIGGEST SURPRISES — The RBNZ lifted the OCR 25bps to 2.5% — its first hike in three years — and signalled that more tightening is likely. Renewed US-Iran strikes pushed WTI crude up 4.3% and the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.57%. ◎ WHAT TO WATCH — US CPI lands Tuesday (est. 3.9% y/y), alongside new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony and big US bank earnings. ◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Analysts have unusually lifted S&P 500 earnings estimates into Q2 reporting season, stirring "earnings bubble" talk, while the US-Iran ceasefire looks fragile after fresh strikes. NZ's rate hike and improving PMI point to a Q3 recovery. Disclaimer: Sharesies Market Movements is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. This video is general market commentary and educational in nature. It is not financial advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is current at the time of recording and may be subject to change. We do not provide recommendations and nothing in this video should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you require personal financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions, including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers, are available on our relevant Australian or NZ website.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US forces struck 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and took further action on Sunday. Iran attacked bases in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait & Bahrain.Crude rallied following this and Iran announcing the Strait of Hormuz would now be closed, though the US said transit has since happened, Brent +4.3%.APAC bourses were pressured, KOSPI underperformed as SK Hynix fell 13%, weighing on the NQ -1.2%.European futures in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%. DXY is modestly firmer against G10 peers across the board.Fixed income underpressure as yields lift across the curve. Spot gold lost USD 4.1k/oz, down to USD 4050/oz. Base peers followed the tone lower.Looking ahead, highlights include German Current Account (May), OPEC MOMR (Jul), US Monthly Budget Statement (Jun), Coalition of the Willing Summit, Speakers including Fed's Waller, BoE's Pill & RBNZ's Conway, Supply from the EU.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend, with the US military targeting 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and took further action on Sunday, while Iran attacked US bases across the Gulf and closed the Strait of Hormuz.Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the US violated all clauses of the MoU in less than a month and stated that Iran will not execute commitments in the MoU as long as the US is not fulfilling its commitments. Furthermore, the spokesperson said mediators are still continuing their efforts to mediate between Iran and the US in recent days and Iran is in contact with mediators. Energy benchmarks pulled back following the constructive rhetoric, Brent +2.3%.US equity futures are off worst levels but the NQ is the clear underperformer, weighed down by the losses in SK Hynix (-15.4%).DXY reverse earlier gains; JPY hit on GPIF chatter, NZD continues to benefit on tightening bets.Looking ahead, highlights include OPEC MOMR (Jul), US Monthly Budget Statement (Jun), Coalition of the Willing Summit, Speakers including Fed's Waller, BoE's Pill, ECB's Schnabel & RBNZ's Conway.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Join Senior Animal Protein Analyst Jen Corkran and Senior Market Strategist Ben Picton as they discuss the July Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting, the recent memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, and the outlook for NZ interest rates. Jen and Ben delve into what the RBNZ signalled about the future path of the official cash rate, what indicators they will be watching, and what factors could change their thinking.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · 8 JULY 2026 Jordan Cunningham, Sharesies Head of Data & Analytics Note: Filmed Tuesday 7 July. ↑ WHAT'S UP — Markets rallied. The Dow gained 2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.8%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.1%, and the ASX 200 finished up 0.9%, helped by its strongest trading session in three weeks. ↓ WHAT'S DOWN — Semiconductor stocks lagged despite the broader tech rebound, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 4.4%. Reports that Meta could sell excess AI computing capacity reignited questions about whether the industry has built too much infrastructure. ! BIGGEST SURPRISES — US nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 in June, well below expectations. Markets responded by sharply reducing the odds of another Fed rate hike, while falling oil prices continued to ease inflation concerns. Despite that, US Treasury yields finished the week slightly higher. ◎ WHAT TO WATCH — The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivers its OCR decision this week, while the US releases FOMC meeting minutes and Q2 earnings season gets underway. ◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Investors are increasingly pricing in a world where inflation pressures continue to ease. Falling oil prices, a cooling US labour market and shifting central bank expectations have helped support equities, but the next test comes as companies begin reporting earnings and central banks reveal whether they're ready to change course. Disclaimer: Sharesies Market Movements is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. This video is general market commentary and educational in nature. It is not financial advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is current at the time of recording and may be subject to change. We do not provide recommendations and nothing in this video should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you require personal financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions, including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers, are available on our relevant Australian or NZ website.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over, "I think", lifting Brent above USD 79/bbl, weighing on equities and fixed income.However, Trump did add he will allow US negotiators to continue talking with Iran, but said, "I think this is a waste of time"Euro Stoxx 50 -2.2%, ES -1.0%, NQ -1.4% given the above. Mixed APAC trade, but China was in the green after updates relating to DeepSeek and Zhiphu.Apple signed an agreement with Broadcom, to design and produce custom silicon components and wireless technologies, deal expected to exceed USD 30bln.NZD outperforms after the RBNZ hiked and signalled further increases "appear likely". Elsewhere, CAD bid on energy moves while JPY slips as a result of its import dependence and yield moves.Looking ahead, US Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), NBP Policy Announcement (Jul), NBH Minutes (Jun), Fed Minutes (Jun), NATO Ankara Summit, Speakers include US President Trump, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Mixed APAC trade, China in the green amid multiple IPOs and tech strength locally. US and European futures contained.DXY is range-bound despite the renewed Middle East clashes. Yields consolidate after the energy-driven lift on Tuesday, following the revocation of the Iranian waiver and tit-for-tat strikes.US Treasury revoked the June 21st Iran-related waiver, General License X, which had allowed Iran to produce, deliver and sell its oilBrent remains above USD 76/bbl, firmer by c. 3.5%, driven higher by the above points. Though, interestingly, the US strikes did not spur any further upside.RBNZ hiked by 25bps in-line with consensus, assessed the current OCR remains accommodative, and further increases "appear likely".Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish Inflation Prelim. (Jun), US Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), NBP Policy Announcement (Jul), NBH Minutes (Jun), Fed Minutes (Jun), NATO Ankara Summit, Speakers include US President Trump, Supply from the UK, Germany and the US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. The World Cup: 8/10 Even a person like me who has minimal, if any, interest in football at the best of times is increasingly mesmerised by people like Messi and teams like England. It's why it's the biggest sport there is. The Reserve Bank: 5/10 Read the room poorly. Don't cock up the recovery. They haven't, they may not, but did a fragile state of mind need a dose of bad news? The NRL TV deal: 8/10 That's the story of a well-told story. V'Landys and Co. dream big, sell well, and bank the results. Wellington: 7/10 I love you. The airport is close to town, Koji has as good a food as anywhere, and it has architecture Auckland could learn from. I was just there for a night, but it was enough to be back for more. Trump's crypto: 2/10 Making money off dummies. One million people have lost $5 billion on Trump crypto. Cool president. LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You can't bag the Monetary Policy Committee. Well, you can, but in this case, you would be fairly churlish. Personally, I would have held, but given the vote was done by consensus I clearly would have been a lone voice. Three hikes are coming, we may get them every other meeting, and we will end up with a cash rate of 3.25%. If you want the glass half full, look at Australia. Their cash rate is well into the 4% and inflation is far from over. And that's before I get to the upcoming jobs issues, not to mention the property correction. But back to us. Inflation is why they are hiking and will continue to hike. But, and it's a big 'but', surely there is an argument that says it's not as bad as we feared? And not just that, it's peaked and is trending down – down to exactly where it needs it to be. Besides, a lot of the inflation remaining is council rates and cost-plus-accounting from power prices. The Taxpayers Union blames the Government, which is an Australian argument, but not applicable here. The Government has an operating budget of $2.1 billion, which is anaemic. We are $3 billion better off on latest figures than we thought. The Government is not blowing out the inflation. But the main reason I would have held is the psychology of pulling the trigger too soon. We are fragile. New Zealand loves a funk and we have been in a funk, and we don't need misery merchants. The bank is clinical, which in part is their job. But a good part of any economy is the psychology of it, the vibe of it, the mood of it. We need help on the mood. We need a lesson to get on with it, and we need to be encouraged. A rate hike doesn't do that. Look, this isn't a disaster. It's not even a bad mistake. It's probably just an unwelcome attitude driven by number wonks, not empaths, who could have been a bit more generous. New Zealand is on the move again. The bank says 25 points doesn't hinder that. I'm not convinced they're right. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor doesn't want to hinder New Zealand's economic recovery any more than she needs to. Anna Breman has confirmed the first OCR hike in more than three years – lifting it from 2.25% to 2.5%. Former Governor Adrian Orr was open about trying to "engineer" a recession during the last cycle of OCR hikes. Breman told Mike Hosking that's not what she's trying to do. She says they try not to create unnecessary volatility, which means not hurting economic growth unless they absolutely need to. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Reserve Bank has delivered an unexpected baseline shift. This week on a special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the RBNZ's unanimous decision to hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 2.25% to 2.5%.Despite a fracturing market consensus on Monday, the Monetary Policy Committee voted with total consensus to remove some economic accommodation. We break down the structural reasons behind the hike, including the RBNZ's strategic pushback against recent easing in wholesale interest rates and a dropping exchange rate that threatened to undo their inflation-fighting progress.The guys look past the headline figure to analyse the increased transparency under Governor Anna Bremen, exploring how individual committee members view current inflation balances. We map out what this means for a flattening housing market - currently down 0.9% annually at the end of June - and preview the five pillars of macro uncertainty that will dictate the next interest rate decision on September 2nd.This week we discuss:The Unanimous Decision: Why the committee completely abandoned its previous 3-all split to push the OCR to 2.5%.The Financial Conditions Pushback: How dropping wholesale market interest rates forced the RBNZ to intervene to prevent premature economic stimulus.The Committee Split: Dissecting the internal RBNZ friction between members warning of structural inflation risks and those viewing them as balanced.The 3.9% Inflation Reality: Why the RBNZ downgraded its near-term Q2 CPI expectations from 4.3% while simultaneously lifting interest rates.The Housing Impact: Why retail mortgage rates are unlikely to shift aggressively despite the higher OCR baseline.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

It's thought another split vote could be on the cards for today's OCR decision. The Reserve Bank will announce its decision at 2pm. BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis expects a 25 basis point increase, taking it from 2.25% to 2.5%. He told Mike Hosking the war in Iran has increased uncertainty about the economy's future. Toplis says banks have already priced in three rate hikes to their mortgage rates – only those on a floating rate should see a major shift. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Wednesday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Seems Like She Knows What She's Doing/Working Smarter, Harder and?.../Being Like the Donald/Who's Running This Place?/Meanwhile... In the Philippines and CubaSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Resumen de la semana 26 del 2026 y lo que se viene TRADING DAY: 5 Técnicas para Operar Earnings 3T2026 - Lunes 06 de Julio. Mas info Aquí!

Is a hike really the right move for the Reserve Bank? Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr, the lone voice calling for rate cuts last year, wants the cash rate to hold fast. Jarrod explains why he thinks the latest inflation spike is a reactive blip, and why the new Governor of the RBNZ may be under pressure to hike anyway. What’s the influence of the US Federal Reserve and other big central banks? What’s a weak Kiwi dollar doing for exporters, and how are election-year nerves affecting business decisions? Plus, how rising house prices made New Zealanders feel richer and spend more, and how flat property forecasts change how we see our wealth. For more places to follow Shared Lunch—check out http://linktr.ee/sharedlunch Sharesies Investment Management Limited is the issuer of the Sharesies KiwiSaver Scheme. The product disclosure statement (PDS) for the Sharesies KiwiSaver Scheme has been lodged, and may be viewed on the Disclose Register or on our documents page. Shared Lunch is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. It is not financial advice. Information provided is general only and current at the time it’s provided, and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. We do not provide recommendations and you should always read the disclosure documents available from the product issuer before making a financial decision. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions—including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers—can be found on our relevant Australian or NZ website. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. If you require financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the presenters, guests, or the entities they represent. Their views are their own.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Are you sitting tight in a three-bedroom home waiting for the property market to "improve"? You might be missing a massive strategic window.In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest "trade-up premium" data. They reveal why a softer housing market has actually made it significantly cheaper to upgrade to a four-bedroom home right now, with value gaps shrinking by up to 12% across major New Zealand regions.The guys also dive into a massive week of economic shifts. Between lower-than-expected Q1 GDP growth (0.8%) and cooling monthly inflation numbers, the previously "guaranteed" July OCR rate hike has suddenly hit a 50/50 standstill. Could the Reserve Bank hold off until September?Plus, we look at why property investors are showing early signs of election nervousness in the upcoming Chart Pack, and celebrate an epic weekend of Kiwi sport - from the Hurricanes' masterclass Super Rugby victory at the Cake Tin to the All Whites' tactical run.This week we discuss:The Shrinking Value Gap: Suburb-level shifts in the 3-to-4-bedroom price premium (and why downturns favour the bold buyer).The Macro Shift: Why 0.8% GDP and falling Q2 CPI projections (down to 4.0%) are giving the RBNZ pause.The Mechanics of the OCR Vote: Dissecting the 3-all split committee and the likelihood of one voter flipping back to a hold.Chart Pack Teaser: First-home buyer resilience vs. shifting investor sentiment ahead of the election.The Sports Wrap: A massive weekend for the Canes, the Black Caps, the Warriors, and the All Whites.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Join Senior Animal Protein Analyst Jen Corkran and Senior Market Strategist Ben Picton as they discuss the May Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting and the New Zealand budget. They unpack what happened at the RBNZ meeting, how the economy is performing, what is happening with the budget balance, and what it all might mean for the official cash rate and term interest rates.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The tide has officially turned for mortgage interest rates. Following the Reserve Bank's razor-edge split decision to hold the OCR last week, borrowers are hitting a major structural shift. An estimated 40% of all New Zealand mortgage debt is exposed to repricing in the next six months alone - shifting from a mindset of two years of falling rates straight into a rising rate wall.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse the macroeconomic consequences of this lag in monetary policy. We break down the newly updated Cotality Sales Volume Forecast Model, which officially strips 10,000 transactions out of our original 2026 projections.Plus, we dissect the internal vs. external board divide at the RBNZ, unpack the Government's council "consent bonus" budget initiative, and preview Thursday's upcoming May Home Value Index (HVI) results.This week we discuss:The Repricing Shock: Why 31% of fixed debt and 10% of floating debt are running directly into higher rates over the next six months.The 2-Year Fix Pivot: Why the mathematical reality of moving from a short-term fix to a 2-year runway means a 0.3% to 0.4% immediate lift in debt-servicing costs.Slashing the 2026 Model: Recalibrating the official housing metrics down to a flat 90,000 transaction ceiling for this year, with a potential slide below 90k in 2027.The Internal vs. External Divide: Analysing Cam Bagrie's take on why external MPC members are voting for rate hikes while internal RBNZ staff cling to optimistic GDP models.April Mortgage Lending Slowdown: Dissecting the $8 billion lending block and why bank switching and aggressive cashback windows are shutting.Council "Consent Bonuses": Reviewing the Government's infrastructure financial incentives for councils hitting high density targets.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

The text of the possible memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has not been finalised and confirmed to this point, according to Tasnim.A Romanian radio station reported that a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, near the border with Ukraine.The EU is to discuss restrictions on Chinese imports, although no decision was expected on Friday.Crude benchmarks are currently trading towards lows; Brent Aug'26 -1.6%.European bourses are broadly firmer this morning, whilst US equity futures are contained; Dell +37% post-earnings.DXY gains slightly, whilst the Kiwi outperforms after hawkish speak from RBNZ officials.Looking ahead, highlights include German Nationwide CPI (May), Canadian GDP (Q1). Speakers include Fed's Schmid, Bowman, Paulson & Daly. Credit Rating updates include S&P on France & Hungary, Morningstar DBRS on Spain.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The New Zealand Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold the OCR at 2.25 percent. Interestingly the decision was a split vote between holding and hiking. Governor Breman who is Chair of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on-hold vote was the tiebreaker, separating the views of external members and banks staff. The three external … Continue reading "RBNZ Hawkish Rate Hold Spells Higher Rates Ahead… But…"

The Reserve Bank Governor is feeling good about her captain's call to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25%. Anna Breman made the final decision after the six-member Monetary Policy Committee she chairs was evenly split on whether to hike the rate. Breman says she understands the argument for hiking but told Mike Hosking she doesn't think now's the right time. She says financial markets have already tightened quite a lot, and the economy is slowing down, which will reduce pressure on inflation over the medium term. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this special reaction episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest RBNZ OCR decision. The rate was held, but only just. The vote was split 3–3, with the Governor casting the deciding vote. This highlights how finely balanced the outlook is.The key message is that rate rises are likely coming. The OCR track has been revised higher. An increase as soon as July now looks probable. Some committee members wanted to hike now. Their view was to act early to limit future inflation risks.Inflation forecasts have been lifted. Headline inflation is expected to rise above 4% in the near term. This is driven by fuel and import costs. Core inflation is easing, however, and longer-term expectations remain stable. This creates uncertainty around how aggressive the RBNZ needs to be.Growth has been downgraded. The recovery is expected to be slower. Unemployment is set to stay elevated for the next 12–18 months.The housing market outlook is weak. House prices are expected to be flat or slightly down. Sales volumes also look subdued. Mortgage rates may rise further, although much has already been priced in.Overall, the OCR is on hold for now. But the balance has shifted. Future increases look increasingly likely.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

US Central Command spokesperson said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday, in which US forces hit targets, including missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines.Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East, while the IRGC affirm its right to respond to any ceasefire breach. Global bourses pare Monday's gains after renewed US strikes on Iranian sites, while Ferrari stalls following EV launch.DXY rangebound, Kiwi underperforms heading into RBNZ, Cable reverses from 1.35 while EUR firmer as Schnabel sees a June hike. Fixed income benchmarks hold a negative bias amid higher energy prices, as US strikes Iranian sites in "self-defence."Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Consumer Confidence (May), NBH Policy Announcement (May), Speakers include ECB's Sleijpen, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

This week, after a sharp rise in global bond yields, we await key inflation data in the US and Euro area, and discuss the fallout in Asia. We preview US core PCE and Euro area inflation, discuss a change in our Fed forecasts, and update on UK politics. In Asia, we preview decisions by the BOK and RBNZ, as well as core inflation in Singapore. And, in a special segment, Albert Leung, our Head of Asia rates strategy, discusses rising global bond yields and opportunities in Asia. Chapters: US: 2:10; London: 11:02, Asia: 16:50; Special Market Segment: 23:51

US President Trump said he has a plan on Iran and repeated that their proposal is unacceptable, while he added that the US blockade on Iran was part of military genius.US President Trump said the ceasefire is unbelievably weak and is on life support, but added that a diplomatic solution with Iran is still possible.US President Trump was reported to have met with his national security team on Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, Axios sources reported.The White House said US President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi on Thursday at 10:15 AM in Beijing (03:15BST/22:15EDT), and a banquet will be held at 18:00 on Thursday (11:00BST/06:00EDT).APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a negative open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.7%.Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP Final (Apr), ZEW (May), US Inflation (Apr), ADP Employment Change Weekly, EIA STEO (May), and EU Informal Meeting of Energy Ministers (May 12-13), Australian federal budget. Speakers include RBNZ's Bremen, BoC's Macklem, ECB's Elderson, Fed's Williams & Goolsbee. Supply from the Netherlands, UK, Germany & US. Earnings from JD com, Under Armour, Siemens Energy, Munich Re, Bayer & Vodafone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

AP reported that effort to extend the US-Iran ceasefire has made progress with mediators aiming to extend for at least another two weeks. Both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reported citing US officials. This move aims to pressure Iran while the US mulls the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.European bourses mixed, Luxury suffers on KER FP and RMS FP while ASML raises FY guidance; US equity futures flat with Morgan Stanley and BofA ahead. DXY muted, GBP/USD retreats from 1.36 with UK GDP later in the week.Global fixed benchmarks trade cautiously awaiting President Trump and central bank speakers.Commodities tread water in anticipation of a second US-Iran meeting.Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include US President Trump, Fed's Barr, Hammack & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Nagel & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey, Greene, SNB's Schlegel, RBA's Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Earnings from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he views the war as being very close to over, according to Fox.US President Trump said he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn't think it will be necessary, according to reports citing an ABC reporter on X.US Vice President JD Vance said they are negotiating with Iran and the ceasefire is holding, while he also stated Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal, and he feels good about where they are.US President Trump's full interview on Fox Business will be aired on April 15th at 06:00EDT/11:00BST.APAC stocks were mostly higher; European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1%Looking ahead, highlights include French HICP Final (Mar), EZ Industrial Production (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include Fed's Barr & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey, SNB's Schlegel, RBA's Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Hermes.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Next round of talks between US and Iran could take place this week or early next week, according to the Iranian embassy official in Pakistan.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.Energy eases amid continued reports of further US-Iran talks.Global equities gain on positive risk tone; US banks ahead.DXY soften, Kiwi continues to outperform while JPY helped modestly by reports BoJ is to increase price forecast.Fixed benchmarks gain, heavy speaker slate ahead. Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk