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S&P futures are up +0.2% and pointing to a slightly higher open. Asian markets were mixed with Japan and Hong Kong lower. New Zealand posted modest gains after a surprise RBNZ rate cut. Mainland China and South Korea remained closed for holidays. European markets are all firmer in early trades. Gold prices surpassed $4,000/ounce for the first time, driven by haven demand amid economic, fiscal, and geopolitical uncertainties. Year-to-date, gold has delivered over +50% returns, supported by concerns over potential market shocks, a possible US government shutdown, and expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary easing. Bullion-backed ETFs experienced their largest monthly inflows in over three years in September. Companies Mentioned: Exxon Mobil, Intel, NVIDIA, Confluent

FIRST WITH YESTERDAY'S NEWS (highlights from Tuesday on Newstalk ZB) Just Not Enough Babies/Bring On the Robot Apocalypse/Now, About the Volcano-Prone Buildings.../How Could the RBNZ Get It So Wrong?/Washing WoesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank's conceded earlier or more aggressive OCR hikes may have reduced inflation sooner. It's been reviewing its response to the recent three-year period of high inflation. Chief Economist Paul Conway says the central bank was also required to maintain maximum sustainable employment. It had limited data and less accurate forecasts due to Covid uncertainty. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking the bank will absolutely draw lessons from the report, just as they did with things like the Christchurch earthquake. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank has been learning lessons from its handling of the Covid pandemic. Chief Economist Paul Conway says they now have a deeper understanding of supply shocks and the structural drivers of inflation and are better equipped for future shocks. He says in hindsight, going earlier or harder to OCR hikes would have reduced inflation sooner. New Zealand Initiative Chief Economist Eric Crampton told Ryan Bridge pumping money into a locked-down economy was the wrong approach. He says it's great the Reserve Bank is recognising its mistakes now, but it would have been better if they'd recognised them earlier. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A new governor has been appointed for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand - all the way from Sweden. Dr Anna Breman has already received criticism from economists who find themselves concerned that someone with such little knowledge of the New Zealand economy will hold such a high stakes position. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What's your message to the new Reserve Bank Governor? Dr Anna Breman is moving from Sweden to take up the job and will begin her five-year term at the start of December. I thought it was interesting to hear her say yesterday that one of the first things she plans to do is to travel around the country to meet and listen to people. She says she wants to meet people in regular households and students, to hear what they've got to say. What would you tell her? What do you think she needs to know? Back in March, when Adrian Orr quit, my advice to whoever eventually took over was to be the complete opposite of him. To make sure they stayed in their lane and kept themselves in check. Because when you're the Reserve Bank governor, your job is to be part of creating a rock star economy – you're not the rock star yourself. What I heard yesterday gives me confidence that Dr Breman is going to do exactly that. Keep the ego under control, but more importantly, actually listen to what's going on. The fact that one of the first things she plans to do is go around the country and talk to people like you and me, I think that's brilliant. But it can't just be a one-off. She needs to be in Christchurch and Auckland pretty much all the time, as well as Wellington and other parts of the country. Because Auckland and Christchurch are the two powerhouses of New Zealand's economy. If I had half an hour with Dr Breman, I'd tell her that she needs to get out of Wellington and talk to real people on a regular basis. To see what people are paying at the supermarket check-outs, to see what people are paying for power, and not just read about it in reports written by officials who can still afford to buy their coffees and lunches and nights out at the weekend. I suppose what I'm saying is that Dr Breman needs to be a Reserve Bank Governor of the people. That might be a tall order but that's what I'd say. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Reserve Bank governor Don Brash is optimistic a new appointee to the role will bring a fresh, transparent communication style. Political reporter Russell Palmer has the story.

Our next Reserve Bank Governor is being commended for her track record in Sweden. Dr Anna Breman —the First Deputy-Governor of Sweden's central bank— will lead our central bank from December. Swedish economist Selva Baziki says the Swedish economy is similar to New Zealand's. And she told Mike Hosking Breman and her colleagues successfully reined in inflation without too much economic impact. Baziki says they've done quite well in the tough job of balancing growth and employment with inflation. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor appointment is not to be underestimated. We have never had a foreigner. Well, we have (the first was British) but that was in 1934 and that's the sort of thing you would have expected given colonialism. Obviously, the fact she is female should not be a thing. I think we have seen plenty of examples that essentially woman can, and do, do anything and the more we continue to isolate out appointments on gender, the more we remind ourselves how little in our minds we have moved forward. But the fact we seem to have attracted what they suggested was a good line up, both numerically and in talent, from offshore is a good tick for this country's reputation. Anna Breman may well use this as a springboard to big banks, who knows. But moving your family halfway around the world is no small thing and you have to believe that the place you are landing isn't a dump, and you can make a difference. I don't think I'm reading too much into the Willis comments at the press conference when she said Christian Hawkesby had done an admirable job. Admirable... is that glowing? I don't think so. He applied for the job but sadly, given his proximity to Adrian Orr, he didn't stand a chance and is now to leave the bank. That in part may have played a role in someone from outside the joint getting the gig. If you're from Sweden you had nothing to do with what has been a hopeless time for the bank, riddled with incompetence and secrecy. Breman said our bank is widely and highly regarded. If I take her at her word that's reassuring, but you can equally suggest she would say that, wouldn't she? What I am interested in is whether she can get a grip on the country and its economic culture. I remain convinced that at least part of the reason the Reserve Bank have messed the recovery up so badly is they don't get out of Wellington. There are too many spreadsheets and not enough real world, not enough vibe, not enough on-the-ground readings. It's a challenge for a Northern European to soak up something like New Zealand and get a gut feel for it and flip it. How long would it take anyone of us to suss out the subtlety of Sweden? But given where we are, she starts from a low base, and the only way is up. Let's hope she's a rockstar. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The new Reserve Bank Governor is pledging to build trust and credibility. Sweden's Anna Breman has been announced to lead the central bank, taking over from interim Governor Christian Hawkesby in December. She'll be the first woman to ever hold the role - selected from more than 300 candidates who were initially identified. Newstalk ZB reporter Azaria Howell says Breman has revealed the new core ideals of the RBNZ under her leadership - and has voiced her commitment to transparency. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Swedes do central banking a little different to us, and I reckon it's good news we've got a Swede in charge. Riksbank - their RBNZ equivalent - is really big on this thing called transparency. There's three things to know - this is stuff they do that we don't, currently. 1. They rank amongst best performing on openness and honesty in the world.2. They publish an actual forward forecast for the OCR - we don't.3. They publish alternative scenarios and minutes. In the minutes, you get to see which of these guys voted which way and their justifications for dong so. Currently, we don't even get to know which way the committee members voted, let alone why. And remember, the Fed in the US and the Bank of England do - as does Riksbank. So here's hoping the Swede in charge will help shake things up and that changes will be made and sunlight will be shone. A new dawn, perhaps, for 2 The Terrace, after a dark and cloudy rollercoaster ride of terror under Adrian Orr. Her name is Anna Breman and her CV reads as you'd expect - current 2IC of Riksbank in her home country. And she's held academic jobs and been the Chief Economist at a retail bank. She's moving here with the family. Which is nice - but I don't know how NZ First will feel about us importing another migrant for a Kiwi job. The reality is, most of the heavy lifting will - hopefully - have been done by the time she sits down for her first briefing on December 1st. We've got two more reviews under Hawkesby in October and November. Then he's gone. Not just from the top job, but the bank entirely. And then they shut up shop for Christmas till February. Let's hope as she enjoys what I'm sure will be a welcome sunny Kiwi summer, she brings a bit of that sunshine - the best disinfectant in town - to 2, The Terrace. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Thursday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Here's Hoping/Has Anybody Seen Our Green Shoots?/How's Your Workday?/Luxon Is Rank/Pants-Wetting Mental ImageSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

FIRST WITH YESTERDAY'S NEWS (highlights from Wednesday on Newstalk ZB) There Must Be Some Green Shoots Around Here Somewhere/RBNZ Obsessed/It's Like They're On Something/Ash VS Sheep/The Weather Actually Isn't Always Sunny Everywhere ElseSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The new Reserve Bank Governor seems to tick all the boxes. Dr Anna Breman has been announced as the next Governor, taking over from Christian Hawkesby in December. She was the First Deputy Governor of Sweden's central bank, and was selected from more than 300 candidates that were initially identified. Economist Cameron Bagrie told Francesca Rudkin that Breman is going to be laser focused on the key priorities, including delivering low and stable inflation. He says they're going to go back to basics as the epicentre of any central bank is credibility – credibility of the framework, the governor, and the governance. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The new Reserve Bank Governor is pledging to build trust and credibility. Sweden's Anna Breman has been announced to lead the central bank, taking over from interim Governor Christian Hawkesby in December. She'll be the first woman to ever hold the role - selected from more than 300 candidates who were initially identified. Newstalk ZB reporter Azaria Howell says Breman has revealed the new core ideals of the RBNZ under her leadership - and has voiced her commitment to transparency. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The economy had a worse than expected drop in the June quarter, shrinking 0.9%. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has blamed it on global turmoil, but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand says there's a need to provide more stimulus to the economy by cutting the OCR. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How much blame for the GDP drop can be placed at the feet of the Reserve Bank? GDP's fallen 0.9 percent in the June quarter – a much sharper drop than economists had been expecting. NZ Initiative Chief Economist Eric Crampton told Kerre Woodham what we're feeling is an effect of getting inflation back in line, but he wouldn't necessarily blame the Reserve Bank for the drop. He says it's one big job is keeping inflation in the 1-3% band, and it largely forgot what it's job was in 2020 and 2021, and went overboard with the spending. Crampton says he wouldn't blame the bank's current round of tightening, but rather the prior round of exuberance that required it. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sir John Key says the Reserve Bank deserves much of the blame for the latest sharp drop in GDP. Our economy's contracted 0.9% in the June quarter. The Government says international turmoil and uncertainty over tariffs have driven the fall, which was much larger than expected. Key told Mike Hosking the OCR was also a major factor. He says two months ago he was criticised for calling for the OCR to come down 100-basis points, but that will probably now happen by Christmas. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis says a new Reserve Bank Governor will be announced “very shortly” as she comes under growing pressure to tackle New Zealand's economic woes. Economists are calling on the Reserve Bank to cut the Official Cash Rate more aggressively after yesterday's shock GDP result. New Zealand's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.9% in the June quarter, a reduction well over market expectations. Expectations were for a 0.4% decline in GDP, while Reserve Bank forecasts were for a 0.3% drop. The worse-than-expected outcome could mean the Reserve Bank will cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) more aggressively than was previously thought, economists said. In an interview with Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking this morning, Willis was asked what she expects from the Reserve Bank to address the situation. “I will very shortly be announcing a new governor for the Reserve Bank. Obviously, we've had a chair change at the Reserve Bank. We are refreshing that institution and I think that is very good indeed,” Willis said. She would not give a specific date for the announcement, instead describing it as happening “very shortly”. She confirmed she knew who the new Governor is. Christian Hawkesby is the current Acting Governor of the Reserve Bank. He was appointed to a six-month term in April following Adrian Orr's resignation in March. Willis told Hosking Kiwis shouldn't get down about the latest drop in GDP and we mustn't talk our way into a recession. She says we shouldn't overreact to a bad quarter – we've got to keep playing the full game, dig in, and do the things that are needed to grow the economy. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Well, I think it's fair to say that the GDP print has come in at something of a shock. The Reserve Bank was picking a contraction of 0.3 percent. The consensus was a contraction of 0.4 percent. The worst-case prediction from one of the banks was a contraction of 0.5 percent. It's come in at a contraction of 0.9 percent, which is basically twice as bad as most of us thought. Now, the immediate problem that we have is what this is going to do to confidence, because people are already scared. That is why it's taking this country so long to come out of recession, because every single piece of bad news like Trump's tariffs earlier this year freaks us out all over again, so we keep our wallets shut for longer. There are people out there who absolutely can afford to spend more money, but they're choosing not to because they do not know that they can trust that we're through the worst of it. This is part of the reason, if not one of the bigger reasons, why the Reserve Bank's cuts to the OCR are not stimulating the economy like the bank thought that they should be. And this number that we see today, I fear, is going to do this all over again. And it's gonna freak us out all over again. And I think the reason we're going to be freaked out all over again by this is that we think that the people who are in charge, mainly the Reserve Bank, but also the Government who keep telling us that the economy is definitely recovering, really have no idea how bad this is. Now, I think it is a little unfair to blame anyone but the Reserve Bank right now because they really deserve it. The verdict is in on this now, isn't it? They have well and truly stuffed this up, they have no idea what is going on in this economy. In July, which was only one month after Q2 ended, we'd just gone through this massive contraction - and the next month, they decided they didn't need to cut the cash rate anymore. They held the cash rate. That now should blow your mind. Just a month ago, they released their monetary policy statement forecasting the contraction at only 0.3 percent They got it wrong by a factor of 3 percent. Now, what them getting it so badly wrong now means is that the pressure is on them to fix this and fix this fast and do a double cut in October, really more to restore confidence than anything, because confidence is what we are very much lacking at the moment. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Well, I think it's fair to say that the GDP print has come in at something of a shock. The Reserve Bank was picking a contraction of 0.3 percent. The consensus was a contraction of 0.4 percent. The worst-case prediction from one of the banks was a contraction of 0.5 percent. It's come in at a contraction of 0.9 percent, which is basically twice as bad as most of us thought. Now, the immediate problem that we have is what this is going to do to confidence, because people are already scared. That is why it's taking this country so long to come out of recession, because every single piece of bad news like Trump's tariffs earlier this year freaks us out all over again, so we keep our wallets shut for longer. There are people out there who absolutely can afford to spend more money, but they're choosing not to because they do not know that they can trust that we're through the worst of it. This is part of the reason, if not one of the bigger reasons, why the Reserve Bank's cuts to the OCR are not stimulating the economy like the bank thought that they should be. And this number that we see today, I fear, is going to do this all over again. And it's gonna freak us out all over again. And I think the reason we're going to be freaked out all over again by this is that we think that the people who are in charge, mainly the Reserve Bank, but also the Government who keep telling us that the economy is definitely recovering, really have no idea how bad this is. Now, I think it is a little unfair to blame anyone but the Reserve Bank right now because they really deserve it. The verdict is in on this now, isn't it? They have well and truly stuffed this up, they have no idea what is going on in this economy. In July, which was only one month after Q2 ended, we'd just gone through this massive contraction - and the next month, they decided they didn't need to cut the cash rate anymore. They held the cash rate. That now should blow your mind. Just a month ago, they released their monetary policy statement forecasting the contraction at only 0.3 percent They got it wrong by a factor of 3 percent. Now, what them getting it so badly wrong now means is that the pressure is on them to fix this and fix this fast and do a double cut in October, really more to restore confidence than anything, because confidence is what we are very much lacking at the moment. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Has Nicola Willis failed on growth in her year of growth? So far, yes. We've gone nowhere in six months - Q2 basically wiped out Q1. Should she resign? No. Why? Trump's tariffs. Nobody saw them coming. Markets thought he was bluffing, a negotiation tactic. Until he wasn't. Businesses and Mums and Dads sat on their cash to wait it out - a reasonable response to an uncertain future. Should she borrow and spend more? She can't. It'd be political sacrilege for a party elected to do the opposite. Besides, she's already borrowing Robertson-level cash. The interest tab's nearing $10 billion and ratings agencies are watching closely. The RBNZ printed money like it was going out of fashion, governments here and abroad overcooked the Covid response with border controls. The world ground to a halt. We artificially concocted an inflationary wildfire so hot the ambers burn close to central limits to this day. As for those the calls from Douglas and Co. for Willis' head on a stake, you've got to ask what exactly it is they want and what impact it would have had. Had she gone full Ruth Richardson in Budgets 1 and 2, getting the books in line sooner, that growth number we saw yesterday, the one that prompted the press release calling for a scalp, would have been a hell of a lot worse than 0.9%. So, the waiting game continues, which is cold comfort to many. But the medicine for such a nasty illness was always going to be hard to swallow.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In 2021, the combination of spiking interest rates, differential tax treatment, new RBNZ regulations, and the CCCFA, put and end to the residential property party. Although some of the sting's been taken out, many property investors are formulating a plan to exit, once any sign of life returns to the market. Where will they go?Provincia: Whether you're looking to invest, or you have a commercial property that needs better management - they the true one-stop shop for wholesale industrial investors. Check out Provincia.co.nz for more.Book in a free 15-min phone call with Darcy Ungaro (financial adviser).Sign up to the fortnightly newsletter!Thank You MyRent: See why residential property investors all over New Zealand are switching to myRent.Affiliate Links!The Bitcoin Adviser: Plan for intergenerational digital wealth. Hatch: For US markets.Revolut: For a new type of banking.Sharesies: For local, and international markets.Easy Crypto: To buy and sell digital assets.Loan My Coins: Bitcoin lending product.Exodus: Get rewards on your first $2,500 of swapsOnline courses:New Wealth Foundations: Personal finance from a wealth-builder's perspective.Take the free, 5-part online course Crypto 101: Crypto with Confidence Get Social:Check out the most watched/downloaded episodes hereFollow on YouTube , Instagram, TikTok: @theeverydayinvestor, X (@UngaroDarcy), LinkedIn.www.ungaro.co.nz________________________Disclaimer: Please act independently from any content provided in these episodes; it's not financial advice, because there's no accounting for your individual circumstances. Do your own research, and take a broad range of...

We should all thank Kelly Eckhold, a some-time participant on this show and most-of-the-time economist at Westpac, for his thinking around the future of the Reserve Bank. As I have said many times, if one good thing came out of Covid, it put the Reserve Bank, its role, and its influence front and centre for many more of us that may never really have paid attention to its workings and its ability to shape everyday aspects of our lives. Eckhold suggests the new governor put the inflation target a little higher than 1-3%. Historically we sit at about 2.5%, so chasing less than that can have a lot of effects you may, or may not, want. Do remember some inflation is good. You want inflation, you just don't want the amount we have had, and you want it produced from growth, not just cost-plus-accounting from councils and power companies. More importantly for me is the public accountability. The Quigley/Orr debacle shows you what can go on when public disclosure is not as fulsome as it could be. Eckhold wants the Monetary Committee vote made public. Good idea, so it should be. It's not often there is a divergence, but there has been lately. In fact, the last statement involved a 4-2 vote, which has never happened before. So why don't we know who they were and what they said? The rules as they stand mean a person on the committee can out themselves. But you will notice from last time that no one has. Why not? Next idea: a press conference should be held after each meeting, not just the ones that produce a cash rate call. I know I'm a wonk, but I cannot press enough the value of watching these things live. Not just the Reserve Bank, but opticians who these days, thanks to digital coverage of places like the Herald, run them in full routinely. The irony of that is you would be amazed what you learn, as opposed to what you may or may not learn from a news bulletin edited and often curtailed to a point of nonsense later in the day in a news bulletin. The best example is the Prime Minister's press conference on a Monday after Cabinet. So, more pressers, more transparency, which is more detail, more sunlight, more inquisition and more knowledge. What possibly could the Reserve Bank argue is wrong with that? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Tuesday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Show Your Working/Are Teachers Really Not Paid Enough?/Are the Rest of Us Really Not Paid Enough?/Yet Another Meaningless Poll/Just Your Everage GlennSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Monday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Who Are the Inmates Exactly?/Don't You Listen to the News?/The Problem with Unions/The Problem with Weightloss Drugs/AnemophobiaSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Western media continues to be complicit even as Israeli atrocities get slightly more coverage. In NZ more details come out about the FBI office - who is leading the country when security details are actively hidden from the PM? And there are serious questions to be asked about what's happening at the Reserve Bank.This episode's co-hostsPhilip, KyleTimestamps0:00 Opening 2:10 Israeli Atrocities and Western Media20:42 FBI Office29:48 Lost Optics34:54 Failing to Appeal38:46 The Reserve Bank53:12 Supermarkets1:00:54 ClosingIntro/Outro by The Prophet MotiveSupport us here: https://www.patreon.com/1of200

FIRST WITH YESTERDAY'S NEWS (highlights from the weekend on Newstalk ZB) We're Being Run By a Bunch of Headless Chooks/A Trolley Full of Broccoli/Rugby Is Not Safer than Soccer/Paperback Double FeatureSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Whether it's the government, international organisations, higher education, or the media, one of the defining dynamics of the social media age is the deteriorating trust in public institutions. It's extraordinary, really. At a time when humans are on the whole wealthier, healthier, and more dominant than at any other time in our species' history, we're more distrustful of the institutions that are supposed to serve us. Saturday Mornings is usually a monetary policy-free zone, and I promise to mostly keep it that way for now. But it was pretty remarkable at the close of play last night to see an announcement from the Finance Minister about the Chair of the Reserve Bank. Neil Quigley had resigned, effective immediately, following further revelations about his handling of former Governor Adrian Orr's departure. Nicola Willis confirmed to Newstalk ZB that if Quigley hadn't offered his resignation, she'd have asked for it. I don't expect everyone to follow all of the Reserve Bank dramas. But the long and short of it is that former Governor Adrian Orr got in a dispute with the government over the bank's funding. It turned into a showdown of sorts, the Reserve Bank Board raised concerns with him about his conduct (some of which he disputed), and after taking leave for a few days he ultimately resigned. But instead of being absolutely transparent about the dispute and what had actually happened, the RBNZ Chair Neil Quigley told media that Orr had resigned for “personal reasons”. If this was just some rando then no harm no foul. But Adrian Orr was the Governor of the Reserve Bank, one of the most powerful public servants in the country. His pen stroke and the decisions of his Monetary Policy Committee could be the difference between thousands or hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs or homes. Like many journalists, I didn't buy the “personal reasons” explanation and felt we all deserved to know more detail about what had actually happened. Ater all, this wasn't a private company. The Reserve Bank serves us. After Neil Quigley's explanation, and after the Reserve Bank declined for Adrian Orr to be interviewed, I even went to the extreme length of sending him a letter at his home asking him to front. It's something I'd almost never do, but the public deserved an explanation. And it's taken until now and a ruling from the ombudsman for us to get the full story. I think there are lessons in this for all of us who work in jobs that purport to serve the public. In my role, I think about trust a lot. And look, I know this is very different to the Reserve Bank, much lower stakes, but I had the chance to reflect on my own work this week, and tried to lean into the spirit of introspection and openness. I was on a podcast, re_covering, in which Newstalk ZB's Frank Ritchie asks journalists to reflect on a story they covered. I didn't choose one which I'd absolutely nailed. Instead, I reflected on my five years as TVNZ's US Correspondent, and on my surprise at the first election of Donald Trump. As I said on re_covering, the fact so many of us were so shocked by the result (including Trump!) shows I and the rest of the news media covering that election had done a massively insufficient job of reflecting the scale of the anger and dissatisfaction with the status quo in the US. That election changed the world. Ultimately, I hope reflecting on my surprise will make me more sceptical of conventional wisdom, and better at my job today. Humans are fallible. We all make mistakes. But the Reserve Bank episode demonstrates the best thing a public institution can do to protect its reputation is not try and protect its reputation. Just admit when you got things wrong. Admit things that make you look bad. Learn lessons the hard way. Convince the public you have nothing to hide by showing us you have nothing to hide. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's been revealed the Reserve Bank chairman sent a warning letter to Treasury in the wake of Adrian Orr's resignation. Neil Quigley warned that it would 'immediately destroy the goodwill' between the two entities if it publicly released details of the fateful meeting. NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny explained further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Has the penny dropped? There was no shortage of headlines and news coverage yesterday out of our interview with the Prime Minister on the Reserve Bank. In a nutshell, Luxon suggested Christian Hawkesby blew it and should have/could have moved faster on the cash rate. This is news, but not because the Prime Minister is right. We all know he is right. But there is a convention whereby because the Reserve Bank is independent you don't bag them, especially if you are a politician, far less the most influential politician. But here is why Luxon was right and deserves recognition for what he said: there comes a time when you've got to say what you've got to say. You can't dance around convention without becoming convention's victim. There is too much of that. People who can't have a go at judges is another example. By tiptoeing around the truth, we invite complacency and accountability becomes woefully lacking. The cold, hard politics are at play as well. Christian Hawkesby and his gang of monetary committee wonks aren't up for re-election next year. Believe me, if Luxon wanders the countryside telling us he wished the cash rate was lowered faster, he's not getting any sympathy. The extreme of course is Trump, where you call for sackings and, occasionally, actually do some sacking. We don't need to be that unhinged. But it is unfairly restrictive for a government to cut spending, cut red tape, change rules and laws, trim jobs, cap councils, upend the RMA, and get the fast track going. Or in other words, work their butts off pulling every lever they can to fire the joint up. But in the meantime, the old dump de dos on the terrace can't see a contraction when it smacks them in the face and they stall the economy through ineptitude. Also, quite apart from anything, we like strong leadership. We like people telling it like it is. If Luxon has had a weakness it might just be he has been a bit corporate, a bit beige, a bit polite and a bit nice. Hopefully yesterday was the start of something new and more strident and with it a few more people are held to open, public account. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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The OCR got another cut this week, now down to 3%. While there have been questions for a while around whether banks are passing the cuts down to consumers, the real question is whether the cuts will actually solve anything at all. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, our FX Strategists break down the growth/inflation mix in the US and how that's impacting the dollar, before providing an update on the state of cross-border USD flows and FX hedging. They also provide a recap of recent tactical developments in G10, including the dovish RBNZ surprise and recent data out of the UK.     Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 22 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5061667-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Today we discuss the upcoming Jackson Hole Bun Fight and New Zealand Reserve Bank Decision to cut rates and I will argue that the whiff of stagflation is getting stronger, to the detriment of ordinary households and businesses. The RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bp, citing tighter spending by businesses and households, falling home prices … Continue reading "Stagflation Looms As Central Bankers Party Amid Peak Uncertainty!"

European bourses opened lower but have clambered back to the unchanged mark; US futures remain on the backfoot.DXY is flat, GBP digests hot UK CPI, NZD lags after the RBNZ delivered a dovish 25bps cut.RBNZ lowered the OCR by 25bps as expected, cut its OCR forecasts across the projection horizon and voted on the options of either a 25bps or 50bps reduction.USTs underperform into 20yr auction, Bunds bid on German Producer Prices, Gilts initially lagged on CPI but now firmer.Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes, Speakers including Fed's Bostic, Waller and reported Fed Chair candidate Zervos, Supply from the US, Earnings from Target.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed after a lacklustre performance stateside, where mega-cap tech led the declines.RBNZ lowered the OCR by 25bps as expected, cut its OCR forecasts across the projection horizon and voted on the options of either a 25bps or 50bps reduction.European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.7% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Tuesday.DXY is marginally higher for a third session in a row, NZD lags post-RBNZ, GBP eyes inflation data.White House is eyeing Budapest for peace talks with Zelensky and Putin, according to Politico.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, EZ HICP (Final), Riksbank Policy Announcement & FOMC Minutes, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bostic & Waller, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from Target.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Reserve Bank says the way we use cash is changing and it wants to know exactly how people are using cash, in its biennial survey on the subject. Retail New Zealand chief executive Carolyn Young spoke to Corin Dann.

Michael Reddell, who appears on this show a fair bit, has put the Adrian Orr resignation back in the news. He has a source close to the action that, in simple terms, suggests that Orr packed a sad at a couple of meetings, one of which was with Nicola Willis, the chair of the Reserve Bank Neil Quigley wrote to Orr with a list of concerns over that behaviour, and Orr quit. The underlying issue appears to be the fact the Government were determined to cut the Reserve Bank's budget, which ultimately, they were successful in doing. Why? Because like everything else under the Labour Government, too much money was spent, things blew out and the Reserve Bank had wandered off into new and expensive areas they didn't need to be in. The main point being: essentially what we thought happened, did. Adrian Orr has a short fuse, a fairly elevated sense of entitlement and importance, and didn't like what was unfolding – which is fine. He didn't have to like it and if he disliked it so badly, he could walk, which he did. But, and here is where this is important, he held a critical role in all our lives. People in jobs like that need to exemplary. Exemplary in execution and exemplary in person. He wasn't. He was a failure. Which then takes us back to how he got the job: through Grant Robertson. Not only did Robertson appoint Orr, he reappointed him. Bad people make bad decisions, and those bad decisions go on to have consequences. By way of contrast what do you reckon the pressure on Jerome Powell is like right now? Is Powell yelling and packing a sad? Is Powell going to quit in a massive hissy fit and vanish from the face of the earth without a word? I have a dollar with anyone who wants it that the answer is "no". Maybe Orr doesn't give a monkey's. Maybe Orr is that sort of bloke who's so inflated and mesmerised by himself that he is well past any reputational reflection. Maybe Grant is too. But the damage still sits in our bank accounts and rates bills and economic funk to this day. The bloke who stuffed the joint, packed a sad and stormed out, never to be heard from again. It's a sad indictment on a role and influence that should have been handled a great deal more elegantly and with a mile more professionalism.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US President Trump said they will have straight, simple tariffs of between 15% and 50% on countries, while he added the US is in serious talks with the EU and if they agree to open up to US businesses, US will let them pay lower tariffs.Reports noted that the US and the EU were closing in on a trade deal with a 15% tariff rate, albeit this is yet to be officially confirmed, and White House Trade Adviser Navarro said to take the reports with a pinch of salt.EU member states are set to vote on EUR 93bln of counter-tariffs on US goods on Thursday and a broad majority of EU members would support using the anti-coercion instrument in the event of no US trade deal and US tariffs of 30%.Alphabet (GOOGL) shares rose 1.7% after-market following earnings whilst Tesla (TSLA) slipped 4.4% as CEO Musk warned of “rough times”.APAC stocks mostly extended on gains; European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.0% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Global PMIs, German GfK Consumer Sentiment, US Jobless Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speakers including RBNZ's Conway & ECB President Lagarde, Supply from Italy & US.Earnings from LVMH, BNP Paribas, TotalEnergies, STMicroelectronics, Dassault Systemes, Carrefour, Michelin, BE Semiconductor, Richemont, Nestle, Roche MTU Aero, Deutsche Bank, Lloyds, IG, Reckitt Intel, American Airlines, Blackstone, Dow Chemical, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Honeywell & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they will have straight, simple tariffs of between 15% and 50% on countries, while he added the US is in serious talks with the EU and if they agree to open up to US businesses, US will let them pay lower tariffs.European bourses continue to gain, albeit are off best levels; US futures mixed, GOOGL +3%, TSLA -6% in pre-market trade.GBP lags on soft PMIs, EUR eyes ECB and potential EU-US breakthrough.EGBs hit by trade updates, Gilts off lows post-PMIs, USTs await data.Crude rises on trade optimism and geopolitics, gold unwinds risk premium.Looking ahead, Global PMIs, US Jobless Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speakers including RBNZ's Conway & ECB President Lagarde, Supply from the US.Earnings from LVMH, Carrefour, Michelin, Intel, American Airlines, Blackstone, Dow Chemical, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Honeywell & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Today we look at the latest from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand where rates were held, though following cuts of 2.25%, compared with the RBA 0.5%. Uncertainly remains the watchword. So we reflect on the different inflation track, and look at rental inflation in particular, in the light of the latest Domain data showing … Continue reading "Central Banks In Wonderland: As RBNZ Holds Too!"

Join Jen Corkran and Ben Picton as they dissect the RBA and RBNZ's July interest rate decisions. Jen and Ben discuss what's keeping central bankers in each country up at night and what we can expect in the months ahead for interest rates.   RaboResearch Disclaimer: Please refer to our Australian RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com.au/knowledge/disclaimer, our New Zealand RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.co.nz/knowledge/disclaimer, and our Global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011410028/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the Australian, New Zealand, and Global RaboResearch material published on the podcast.

US President Trump flagged the release of at least 7 tariff letters today. Reports that the EU is closing in on a temporary "framework" agreement, via FT.European bourses began modestly firmer and have been grinding higher since, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%; German autos bid on trade nuances, Basic Resources hit by non-US copper performance, Media lags after WPPStateside, futures are in the green and directionally in-fitting with Europe but gains are much more muted, ES +0.2%; updates around AAPL, NVDA, AMZN in focusUSD steady with G10s mixed but essentially flat. RBNZ as expected, no significant NZD move.Fixed benchmarks have a modest upward bias, though they remain markedly lower on the week; today's action in Europe is a retracement of Tuesday's supply-induced pressure rather than a pronounced move higher.Crude has an upward bias, specifics light. XAU softer. Front-running of US copper into potential tariffs has widened the Comex-LME arbitrage to over USD 2,000/t.Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes, Speakers include ECBʼs Lane, Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from the US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside where tariff updates remained in focus.US President Trump said he will announce something on pharmaceuticals very soon and will be announcing semiconductor tariffs, believes the copper tariff will be 50%.President Trump said the US is probably two days off from sending the EU a letter, which means a deal.European equity futures indicate a slightly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.6% on Tuesday.DXY is a touch higher with the USD mixed vs. peers (stronger vs. havens, weaker vs. antipodeans).RBNZ maintained the OCR at 3.25%, as expected, hinted at future rate cuts ahead.Looking ahead, highlights include BoE FSR, FOMC Minutes, RBA's Hunter, BoE Governor Bailey, ECB's Lane, Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Economists say pausing the OCR could be prudent as we wait to find out more about the state of global trade. The Reserve Bank will make a call today on whether to cut the Official Cash Rate for a seventh consecutive time or hold it steady at 3.25%. There's much to consider, including uncertainty about the US tariffs. ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Heather du Plessis-Allan we'll have more information next month about inflation and inflation expectations. He says hopefully all the trade deadlines will be dealt with and we'll have more clarity about what tariffs countries face. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The UK saw another round of combined sterling and gilt weakness, a pattern which is becoming worryingly familiar. Politics elsewhere seemed to have run a bit more smoothly with the US budget bill passing through the Senate and House, teeing up some degree of fiscal expansion for the year ahead. Tariffs remain on the agenda for the week ahead, as we approach the 9 July deadline. In Asia, we focus on the Bank of Korea's likely hawkishness relative to potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Chapters: (US: 02:14, Asia: 08:53, Australia & New Zealand: 13:53, EMEA: 16:33).

The Reserve Bank gets another chance to cut interest rates next week. So far 2025 has seen the RBNZ make three consecutive cuts to the official cash rate, which was widely expected by economists up and down the country. But next week, for the first time this year, there's doubt. Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado joins Bernard Hickey to assess our central bank's options leading into next week's monetary policy statement. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Will the RBNZ cut rates in July or keep Kiwis waiting? We unpack why the Reserve Bank might hold off on cutting the OCR, from unexpected GDP growth and stubborn inflation to the global oil price shocks that could hit your mortgage and financial plans.Next Steps: For tailored advice on your mortgage strategy ahead of the next OCR decision, talk to the team at Lighthouse Financial today.For more money tips follow us on:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The content in this podcast is the opinion of the hosts. It should not be treated as financial advice. It is important to take into consideration your own personal situation and goals before making any financial decisions.