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Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it is a good job we have sports to allow us a temporary distraction from the geopolitical mess that the US has initiated and which seems to just go on and on. A shut Hormuz and a jump in oil prices is bringing Groundhog Day. Back in the economic world, Tuesday's June CPI release will dominate this week's local data releases. Markets expect an elevated 4% rate, keeping the pressure on the OCR and the RBNZ to contain it. Events in the Middle East aren't helping. The next OCR review is not until September 2 however. In Australia, it will be all about their June labour market release. Markets expect only modest jobs growth and no jobless rate change. But developments between the US and Iran will remain in the global spotlight after strikes escalated, impacting energy prices and interest rate outlooks for central banks. There is not much market-moving economic data expected from the US this week. But earnings season results will be watched for indications and surprises. In Japan, they will release trade and inflation updates (1.6%?). Taiwan will be interesting for its industrial production data. Korea for its Q1-2026 GDP outcome. And Indonesia will review its policy rate again, after the unusual interim hike, and then taking it to possibly 6%. For them it is all about supporting their weakening currency. There is little significant data out of China this week. However, here's something we haven't covered so far. Their June trade data for China shows that its crude oil imports are now at a ten year low. In fact their June crude oil imports were -11.4% lower than a year ago in volume terms. It is a shift that will have global implications. We can also note that China closed nearly 30,000 kindergartens and primary schools in 2025. It is the consequence of the growing demographic slump we have been noting for some time. Recent data released by the Ministry of Education revealed a severe structural divergence: while early childhood and primary education are shrinking rapidly, high schools and universities are expanding to absorb a demographic bulge from earlier birth peaks. Three Chinese airlines have ordered 95 Airbus commercial jets. This has swelled Airbus's non-US order book over rival Boeing. Airbus (89) delivered more aircraft than Boeing (64) in June. Boeing is losing market share fast for clients outside the US, no doubt a direct consequence of reactions to nativist policies from Washington and risks of trade retaliation. Singapore's export growth fell back sharply and unexpectedly in June. Electronics exports remained elevated, but non-electronics exports were unusually weak in the month. Their big decliners were for petrochemicals, food, and non-monetary gold. Trade with the US was especially hard hit. Across the Pacific in Canada, the spread of their enormous wildfires are becoming an international irritant. Canada is struggling to contain them. In an unusual move, the US is refusing to assist, even though Canada sends crews and support to the US when they have wildfire emergencies. There are also major wildfires in many US states as well. In the US housing starts in June which came in +3.6% higher than year ago levels and brushing off their unusually weak May report. But for all the positives that some Fed district factory surveys have shown, these are not showing up in US industrial production data yet. You might have thought the increased local stockpiling surge would be visible by now. But to June, it isn't. US industrial production rose a paltry +0.1% in June to be +1.1% higher than a year ago. And that is its weakest increase in three months. Although consumers are still very negative in their sentiment, there was a notable improvement in the latest survey results from the widely-respected and long running University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. With the second straight month of 10% jumps, consumer sentiment climbed to its least negative reading since February of this year on the basis of easing price pressures at the petrol pump in recent weeks. All five index components improved, led by significant 20% increases in buying conditions for durables as well as year-ahead business conditions. This month's rise in sentiment was consistent across the population, seen across groups by age, income, wealth, and political party. Will it last? If it truly is directly related to pump prices, then this weekend's outsized jump in crude oil prices (below) and the turn up in pump prices in the past few days, suggests not. Today's pump prices are almost back to month-ago levels when the sentiment survey hit its record lows. Looking backwards over the past month, US data has seen improvements. But these have not been enough to return the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking to where it was in May, so a sharp downshift is still in place. And it is worth noting that 'consensus forecasts' by mainstream economists have not yet reflected that retreat. The RBNZ also produces a GDP nowcast. After a somewhat unexpected blip up two weeks ago, the latest data has returned our Q2-2026 growth to a minimal level. The same for Q3-2026. (There is no Aussie GDP nowcast from an official institution. The Melbourne Institute version won't be updated until the end of the month.) In Australia, the latest weekend's residential auction activity was low, possibly back to levels they had in 2018. They are finally having the housing market correction necessary to address their affordability problems. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down a net -2 bps for the week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4017/oz, up +US$12 from Saturday but down -US$83 from a week ago. Silver is now just under US$56/oz, down -US$3.50 for the week. Oil prices are +50 USc firmer from Saturday, up +US$3.50 from Friday at just on US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$71.50 and US$76 respectively so a +16% rise since then. Hormuz transits have been reduced to a trickle overnight There have been just 2 crude tankers and 7 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 9 entering for new loads (6 dark) and almost this traffic isl Iran-linked. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just under 58.4 USc but up +80 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding, at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.3 which is unchanged from this time Saturday, up +80 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,542 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, up +1.4% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/-0.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Send Us A Message! Let us know what you think.Is the Reserve Bank's latest interest rate hike a sudden shock to the system, or is it actually the clearest sign yet that the economic fog is finally lifting? In this episode of the Week in Review, Debbie Roberts from Property Apprentice breaks down the wave of fresh real estate data for the week ending Friday, 10th of July, 2026. While the mainstream media headlines are busy dancing in panic over the central bank's shift to 2.5%, the underlying economic metrics tell a completely different story—revealing massive silver linings for both property buyers and landlords who look at the numbers with total discipline. The Five Core Topics Discussed:Topic 1: The Consensus OCR Reduction in Stimulus – Breaking down the RBNZ's unexpected decision to raise the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, why peak inflation has officially been slashed, and why interest rates may come down faster than bank economists previously projected. Topic 2: The Widening Regional Market Fracture – A deep dive into the latest QV House Price Index showing national values dropping slightly by 0.4%, while the market splits along strict regional lines with Christchurch outperforming Auckland and Wellington. Topic 3: Why "Risky" Properties are Outperforming the Broader Market – Analyzing the bombshell Cotality report revealing that flood-susceptible homes have gained 26.1% in value since 2020—outgrowing unaffected zones as cost-conscious buyers hunt out $100,000 upfront discounts. Topic 4: The Auckland Rental Market Winter Reset – Looking past the headline shock of an 10.9% drop in rental enquiries to reveal why tenant demand remains fundamentally strong year-on-year, and how available stock listings have expanded buyer selection by 10.9%. Topic 5: The Pervasive Fall of Household Interest Costs – Unpacking the latest Westpac household finances chart pack proving that household interest spending has successfully declined for a fifth consecutive quarter, heavily supported by a 3.8% climb in disposable incomes. 

In this all-Antipodean edition of Macro Minutes, Robert Thompson and Mary Jo Vergara discuss the RBNZ hiking the OCR rates for the first time in three years with more to come, in contrast to the RBA, which is stepping back into the shadows after three quick-fire hikes in February, March, and May.Participants:Robert Thompson (Desk Strategy), Head of Australian Economics & Rates StrategyMary Jo Vergara (Desk Strategy), Senior Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The US continued to launch strikes for a third night, after President Trump stated that he would hit Iran “very hard” on Monday and Tuesday. Separately, Trump threatened to hit Iran's “Pickaxe Mountain”, an underground nuclear facility; Brent Aug'26 +1.9%.US President Trump also announced a naval blockade, which is set to begin at 21:00 BST / 16:00 EDT.APAC stocks were mostly in the red given the geopolitical environment and tech sell-off; European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open.DXY takes a breather; Kiwi outperforms following regional data and hawkish comments from RBNZ's Conway.USTs and Bunds remain pressured amidst the elevated energy prices and after Fed's Waller delivered hawkish remarks.Looking ahead, Highlights include German Wholesale Prices (Jun), Chinese M2 Money Supply (Jun), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Jun), US CPI (Jun), Fed Discount Rate Minutes (Jul), ECB President Lagarde-US Treasury Secretary Bessent meeting.Speakers including Fed Chair Warsh, Goolsbee, Barr, Cook & Bowman, BoE Governor Bailey, Supply from the Netherlands & Germany.Earnings from Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · 15 JULY 2026Laura Marwick & Jordan Cunningham, Sharesies Head of Data & Analytics Note: Filmed Tuesday 14 July ↑ WHAT’S UP — Meta surged 14.8% on plans to add 14 gigawatts of compute, driving the Nasdaq up 1.74% for its fourth gain in five weeks. SK Hynix's US debut raised US$26.5 billion, the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company. ↓ WHAT’S DOWN — The ASX 200 fell 0.4% to 8,806 as miners tumbled over 4%, while the Dow was down 0.5% and Russell 2000 0.6%. ! BIGGEST SURPRISES — The RBNZ lifted the OCR 25bps to 2.5% — its first hike in three years — and signalled that more tightening is likely. Renewed US-Iran strikes pushed WTI crude up 4.3% and the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.57%. ◎ WHAT TO WATCH — US CPI lands Tuesday (est. 3.9% y/y), alongside new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony and big US bank earnings. ◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Analysts have unusually lifted S&P 500 earnings estimates into Q2 reporting season, stirring "earnings bubble" talk, while the US-Iran ceasefire looks fragile after fresh strikes. NZ's rate hike and improving PMI point to a Q3 recovery. Disclaimer: Sharesies Market Movements is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. This video is general market commentary and educational in nature. It is not financial advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is current at the time of recording and may be subject to change. We do not provide recommendations and nothing in this video should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you require personal financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions, including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers, are available on our relevant Australian or NZ website.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US continued to launch strikes for a third night, after President Trump stated that he would hit Iran “very hard” on Monday and Tuesday. Separately, Trump threatened to hit Iran's “Pickaxe Mountain”, an underground nuclear facility; Brent Sep'26 +4.0%.US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming as it recovers from Monday's selloff; US banking names kick of earnings.DXY tentative heading into CPI and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony; Kiwi outperforms after further hawkish RBNZ rhetoric.Fixed income benchmarks are softer amid energy moves and continued post-Waller hawkishness.Crude benchmarks grind higher on continued US-Iran updates while spot gold finds support above USD 4k/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Jun), Fed Discount Rate Minutes (Jul), ECB President Lagarde-US Treasury Secretary Bessent meeting, Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh, Goolsbee, Barr, Cook and Bowman, BoE Governor Bailey, Earnings from Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US forces struck 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and took further action on Sunday. Iran attacked bases in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait & Bahrain.Crude rallied following this and Iran announcing the Strait of Hormuz would now be closed, though the US said transit has since happened, Brent +4.3%.APAC bourses were pressured, KOSPI underperformed as SK Hynix fell 13%, weighing on the NQ -1.2%.European futures in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%. DXY is modestly firmer against G10 peers across the board.Fixed income underpressure as yields lift across the curve. Spot gold lost USD 4.1k/oz, down to USD 4050/oz. Base peers followed the tone lower.Looking ahead, highlights include German Current Account (May), OPEC MOMR (Jul), US Monthly Budget Statement (Jun), Coalition of the Willing Summit, Speakers including Fed's Waller, BoE's Pill & RBNZ's Conway, Supply from the EU.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend, with the US military targeting 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and took further action on Sunday, while Iran attacked US bases across the Gulf and closed the Strait of Hormuz.Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the US violated all clauses of the MoU in less than a month and stated that Iran will not execute commitments in the MoU as long as the US is not fulfilling its commitments. Furthermore, the spokesperson said mediators are still continuing their efforts to mediate between Iran and the US in recent days and Iran is in contact with mediators. Energy benchmarks pulled back following the constructive rhetoric, Brent +2.3%.US equity futures are off worst levels but the NQ is the clear underperformer, weighed down by the losses in SK Hynix (-15.4%).DXY reverse earlier gains; JPY hit on GPIF chatter, NZD continues to benefit on tightening bets.Looking ahead, highlights include OPEC MOMR (Jul), US Monthly Budget Statement (Jun), Coalition of the Willing Summit, Speakers including Fed's Waller, BoE's Pill, ECB's Schnabel & RBNZ's Conway.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · 8 JULY 2026 Jordan Cunningham, Sharesies Head of Data & Analytics Note: Filmed Tuesday 7 July. ↑ WHAT'S UP — Markets rallied. The Dow gained 2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.8%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.1%, and the ASX 200 finished up 0.9%, helped by its strongest trading session in three weeks. ↓ WHAT'S DOWN — Semiconductor stocks lagged despite the broader tech rebound, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 4.4%. Reports that Meta could sell excess AI computing capacity reignited questions about whether the industry has built too much infrastructure. ! BIGGEST SURPRISES — US nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 in June, well below expectations. Markets responded by sharply reducing the odds of another Fed rate hike, while falling oil prices continued to ease inflation concerns. Despite that, US Treasury yields finished the week slightly higher. ◎ WHAT TO WATCH — The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivers its OCR decision this week, while the US releases FOMC meeting minutes and Q2 earnings season gets underway. ◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Investors are increasingly pricing in a world where inflation pressures continue to ease. Falling oil prices, a cooling US labour market and shifting central bank expectations have helped support equities, but the next test comes as companies begin reporting earnings and central banks reveal whether they're ready to change course. Disclaimer: Sharesies Market Movements is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. This video is general market commentary and educational in nature. It is not financial advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is current at the time of recording and may be subject to change. We do not provide recommendations and nothing in this video should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you require personal financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions, including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers, are available on our relevant Australian or NZ website.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mixed APAC trade, China in the green amid multiple IPOs and tech strength locally. US and European futures contained.DXY is range-bound despite the renewed Middle East clashes. Yields consolidate after the energy-driven lift on Tuesday, following the revocation of the Iranian waiver and tit-for-tat strikes.US Treasury revoked the June 21st Iran-related waiver, General License X, which had allowed Iran to produce, deliver and sell its oilBrent remains above USD 76/bbl, firmer by c. 3.5%, driven higher by the above points. Though, interestingly, the US strikes did not spur any further upside.RBNZ hiked by 25bps in-line with consensus, assessed the current OCR remains accommodative, and further increases "appear likely".Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish Inflation Prelim. (Jun), US Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), NBP Policy Announcement (Jul), NBH Minutes (Jun), Fed Minutes (Jun), NATO Ankara Summit, Speakers include US President Trump, Supply from the UK, Germany and the US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over, "I think", lifting Brent above USD 79/bbl, weighing on equities and fixed income.However, Trump did add he will allow US negotiators to continue talking with Iran, but said, "I think this is a waste of time"Euro Stoxx 50 -2.2%, ES -1.0%, NQ -1.4% given the above. Mixed APAC trade, but China was in the green after updates relating to DeepSeek and Zhiphu.Apple signed an agreement with Broadcom, to design and produce custom silicon components and wireless technologies, deal expected to exceed USD 30bln.NZD outperforms after the RBNZ hiked and signalled further increases "appear likely". Elsewhere, CAD bid on energy moves while JPY slips as a result of its import dependence and yield moves.Looking ahead, US Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), NBP Policy Announcement (Jul), NBH Minutes (Jun), Fed Minutes (Jun), NATO Ankara Summit, Speakers include US President Trump, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. The World Cup: 8/10 Even a person like me who has minimal, if any, interest in football at the best of times is increasingly mesmerised by people like Messi and teams like England. It's why it's the biggest sport there is. The Reserve Bank: 5/10 Read the room poorly. Don't cock up the recovery. They haven't, they may not, but did a fragile state of mind need a dose of bad news? The NRL TV deal: 8/10 That's the story of a well-told story. V'Landys and Co. dream big, sell well, and bank the results. Wellington: 7/10 I love you. The airport is close to town, Koji has as good a food as anywhere, and it has architecture Auckland could learn from. I was just there for a night, but it was enough to be back for more. Trump's crypto: 2/10 Making money off dummies. One million people have lost $5 billion on Trump crypto. Cool president. LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You can't bag the Monetary Policy Committee. Well, you can, but in this case, you would be fairly churlish. Personally, I would have held, but given the vote was done by consensus I clearly would have been a lone voice. Three hikes are coming, we may get them every other meeting, and we will end up with a cash rate of 3.25%. If you want the glass half full, look at Australia. Their cash rate is well into the 4% and inflation is far from over. And that's before I get to the upcoming jobs issues, not to mention the property correction. But back to us. Inflation is why they are hiking and will continue to hike. But, and it's a big 'but', surely there is an argument that says it's not as bad as we feared? And not just that, it's peaked and is trending down – down to exactly where it needs it to be. Besides, a lot of the inflation remaining is council rates and cost-plus-accounting from power prices. The Taxpayers Union blames the Government, which is an Australian argument, but not applicable here. The Government has an operating budget of $2.1 billion, which is anaemic. We are $3 billion better off on latest figures than we thought. The Government is not blowing out the inflation. But the main reason I would have held is the psychology of pulling the trigger too soon. We are fragile. New Zealand loves a funk and we have been in a funk, and we don't need misery merchants. The bank is clinical, which in part is their job. But a good part of any economy is the psychology of it, the vibe of it, the mood of it. We need help on the mood. We need a lesson to get on with it, and we need to be encouraged. A rate hike doesn't do that. Look, this isn't a disaster. It's not even a bad mistake. It's probably just an unwelcome attitude driven by number wonks, not empaths, who could have been a bit more generous. New Zealand is on the move again. The bank says 25 points doesn't hinder that. I'm not convinced they're right. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor doesn't want to hinder New Zealand's economic recovery any more than she needs to. Anna Breman has confirmed the first OCR hike in more than three years – lifting it from 2.25% to 2.5%. Former Governor Adrian Orr was open about trying to "engineer" a recession during the last cycle of OCR hikes. Breman told Mike Hosking that's not what she's trying to do. She says they try not to create unnecessary volatility, which means not hurting economic growth unless they absolutely need to. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The ASX 200 fell another 19 points to 8785 (0.2%) as resources were once again under pressure. Well off the lows though of around 120 pts down. BHP fell 2.3% on potential strike action, RIO dropped 2.6% and FMG held up relatively well. Lithium plays remained depressed, with PLS down 3.3% and LTR falling 4.3%. Gold miners were also under pressure, although well off their lows, with NST down 1.7%, EVN crashing 4.2% and GMD also in trouble. LYC managed a small gain, as did BSL. Oil and gas stocks were a bright spot as crude prices rose, with WDS up 3.2% and STO rising 5.8%. Coal stocks also fared better, with WHC up 2.1% and YAL rising 4.0%. Uranium stocks were mixed.The banks were once again a safe haven, with the Big Bank Basket rising to $279.89  (0.98%) as CBA added 0.9% and ANZ jumped 1.2%. MQG slid 0.5%, while other financials were also under the pump, with NWL dropping 3.9%. Insurers were firmer on higher bond yields. REITs also pushed ahead, with SGP up 5.1% and SCG rising 0.8%. Healthcare took a breather today, with RMD dropping 0.8% and SIG falling 0.7%. The tech space was once again unloved, with WTC giving back recent gains, falling 7.3%, and XRO dropping another 1.2%. NXT fell 1.0%, while TLS eased % as a serious outage damaged the brand. The All-Tech Index down 1.4%. Retailers firmed, with WES up 0.5% and JBH gaining 1.9%.In corporate news, RMD sold a software business, GGP appointed a new COO, and ADH warned of a $43m loss driven by impairments.On the economic front, the RBNZ raised rates for the first time in three years. Locally, dwelling commencements fell 11.2%.Asian markets were weaker. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.2%, Hong Kong up 2.9%, China dropped 0.2%, while the Kospi fell 5.5% following Samsung's results. European futures were slightly weaker.US futures were also softer, with the Dow down 99 points and the Nasdaq off 42 points.Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

Send us Fan MailMiddle East tensions return to the spotlight, pushing oil prices higher. RBNZ delivers a hawkish hike, raising questions about other central banks. Fed minutes will be closely watched as September hike odds remain elevated. Risk appetite fades; the dollar stands ready to benefit.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

The problem with bashing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in real time is that nobody really knows how badly they might have cocked something until well after the cocking's happened. There weren't many —though not none— chiding Orr for low rates until it was bleedingly obvious in actual data, and what Prince Harry would term 'lived experience', that prices were on the march. The RBNZ has decided to hike now. They'll probably do another one in September, assuming Trump's ceasefire pause is just that, and beyond September is anyone's guess. One argument is that they'll hike in September, hold in October ahead of the election in November, then stick their finger in the air for December. Either way we're heading towards either 2.75% or 3% by Christmas. Most of this has been priced into wholesale rates. The justification for the hike, as has been pointed out by a couple of economists, is it's easier to swallow. For them to come out and say "we're hiking now because the economy is on the up, plus a bit of war pricing potential", that's a lot easier to stomach than "we're hiking now and there's no growth - welcome to stagflation nation". Tony Alexander makes the point that the bank has been criticised in the past for hiking too late, letting prices get away, then overcorrecting on rates, plunging us into a deep and uncomfortable recession. Given they're now moving relatively early, they can move and wait and see and (hopefully) avoid the same mistakes. I like to believe Tony's predictions. And I hope he's right. Managing the OCR is driving a rental car - you're unfamiliar with the pedals. Push too hard either way and you can quickly end up wrapped to lamppost or hit in the head by an airbag. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's thought another split vote could be on the cards for today's OCR decision. The Reserve Bank will announce its decision at 2pm. BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis expects a 25 basis point increase, taking it from 2.25% to 2.5%. He told Mike Hosking the war in Iran has increased uncertainty about the economy's future. Toplis says banks have already priced in three rate hikes to their mortgage rates – only those on a floating rate should see a major shift. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Wednesday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Seems Like She Knows What She's Doing/Working Smarter, Harder and?.../Being Like the Donald/Who's Running This Place?/Meanwhile... In the Philippines and CubaSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike tomorrow for the first time in more than three years, but expectations are split. Australian job ads are stable, and Thailand's headline inflation rate is below forecasts. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan unpacks how a very strong El Nino could ripple across Southeast Asia's economies into inflation and lower incomes. And one size does not fit all. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news an OPEC decision overnight may bring lower fuel prices much sooner. But then, this will depend on the volume of Hormuz crossings. But first, this coming week locally will be dominated by the RBNZ's OCR review on Wednesday. Economists are divided on whether an inflation-fighting hike will come, and financial markets are pricing one in at 76%. The split voting at the May 27 review, where the external members all wanted a hike, but the majority internal members didn't, is just as likely to be repeated. ASB is saying that locally, easing oil prices have strengthened our economic outlook and reduced the risk of a prolonged inflation shock. Lower fuel costs and stronger than expected economic momentum have put the recovery back on a firmer footing. In Australia, the data out this week will be mainly about the Melbourne Institute's monthly inflation gauge, and about job ad changes. In the US, their data releases will focus on service sector activity and existing home sales as they, like Europe, start to battle excessively hot conditions. In Japan, the focus will be on defending the yen. They will also release June machine tool order data. China will release June CPI and PPI data this week. Over the weekend, China released their unofficial services PMI and it came in quite positive for June, similar to May. Growth rates for activity and new business remain strong. They recorded the strongest rise in employment since July 2024 and the fastest input cost inflation in over two years. Service sector firms there are optimistic about the immediate future. The overall result was better than the official China services PMI. In Japan, their services PMI returned to growth in June, but cost pressures intensified, but here business confidence remained subdued. Which is in contrast to their quite positive factory PMI. In South Korea we should probably note a very bumpy run recently by their stock market. It is dominated by major technology and semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, so it is like the Nasdaq on steroids. This gives it unusual volatility, and that volatility has been on display in the past two weeks. This market hit a new record high on June 22 but has fallen -11% since. On Friday, it rose +5.8% however but even that still left it down -3% for the week. Over the past year, this equity market has risen a stunning +165% with most of it in 2026 and most of it tech-related. In Vietnam, they posted a high Q2-2026 growth rate of +8.4%, building on their +7.8% Q1-2026 rate. (How can they report so quickly?) But this latest result will disappoint them because they have set a 2026 target of +10% and that now looks unlikely to be achieved, derailed somewhat by the Middle East conflict, also by missing their infrastructure build-out targets. Inflation eased to 4.7% in June from May's 5.6%, moving closer to the government's 4.5% inflation target this year. The World Bank has now reclassified Vietnam as an upper-middle-income economy, effective July 1. The FAO global Food Price Index retreated for a second consecutive month in June, led down by falling cereals prices as harvests stay high, despite concerns in the US and Australia. Dairy prices eased slightly too, but meat prices stayed elevated. However it is vegetable oil prices that are keeping this index from falling faster. In the US, the latest update of the AtlantaFed's GDPNow tracking reveals a sudden turn from high optimism about economic expansion, to a dour outlook. It has been rare that this model has come in lower than 'consensus' forecasts. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, unchanged from this time Saturday but a +12 bps rise from this time last week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4174/oz, unchanged from Saturday, up +US$100 from a week ago. Silver is now under US$62.50/oz, unchanged from Saturday too, up +US$3.50/oz for the week. Oil prices are little-changed but slightly firmer from Saturday at just under US$69/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still at US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits picked up Friday but then on renewed uncertainties fell back again over the weekend with just 10 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 19 hours (1 dark with transponders off) but 15 entering for new loads (1 dark). Large tankers which are exiting are now choosing to do so in Oman-controlled lanes. And we should probably note attacks on a ships in the Red Sea near Yemen over the weekend, adding another layer of uncertainty. OPEC met over the weekend, and raised output by +188,000 barrels/day. They have Middle East members who need maximum revenues to recover from the conflict. So we may end up awash in oil and sharply lower prices. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just over 57.1 USc, up +70 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are still at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.9 which is unchanged from this time Saturday, up +60 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,563 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday, but up almost +4% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

It'll be a holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand, with markets closed for the Matariki holiday on Friday. The clear highlight will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on Wednesday, which is shaping up as a very interesting one. Market pricing implies a 76% chance of a hike, although oil prices have fallen back to well below the base case presented by the RBNZ in May, and inflation indicators in last week's ANZ Business Outlook survey were much softer as well.

Resumen de la semana 26 del 2026 y lo que se viene TRADING DAY: 5 Técnicas para Operar Earnings 3T2026 - Lunes 06 de Julio. Mas info Aquí!

Send us Fan MailMarkets face a busy week driven by central banks and key data releases. The US ISM Services PMI and Fed Minutes could shape expectations for US rates, with potential impact on the dollar, equities, and crypto. Attention also turns to the RBNZ decision, ECB Minutes, and Canadian jobs data. Meanwhile, oil and geopolitics remain in focus, while gold struggles under a stronger dollar. Expect volatility as traders look for direction.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Is a hike really the right move for the Reserve Bank? Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr, the lone voice calling for rate cuts last year, wants the cash rate to hold fast. Jarrod explains why he thinks the latest inflation spike is a reactive blip, and why the new Governor of the RBNZ may be under pressure to hike anyway. What’s the influence of the US Federal Reserve and other big central banks? What’s a weak Kiwi dollar doing for exporters, and how are election-year nerves affecting business decisions? Plus, how rising house prices made New Zealanders feel richer and spend more, and how flat property forecasts change how we see our wealth. For more places to follow Shared Lunch—check out http://linktr.ee/sharedlunch Sharesies Investment Management Limited is the issuer of the Sharesies KiwiSaver Scheme. The product disclosure statement (PDS) for the Sharesies KiwiSaver Scheme has been lodged, and may be viewed on the Disclose Register or on our documents page. Shared Lunch is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. It is not financial advice. Information provided is general only and current at the time it’s provided, and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. We do not provide recommendations and you should always read the disclosure documents available from the product issuer before making a financial decision. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions—including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers—can be found on our relevant Australian or NZ website. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. If you require financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the presenters, guests, or the entities they represent. Their views are their own.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says inflation pressures have eased, which drives short term market rates down. The yen's fall to 40-year lows adds to the Bank of Japan's inflation challenge, and China's economy was humming in June. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner previews next Wednesday's rates decision by the RBNZ, where most expect a rate hike, but not all. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news clashes in the Strait of Hormuz are unstitching the uneasy ceasefire and giving credence to sceptics who saw the 'truce deal' between the US and Iran as superficial and flawed. The US believes its own propaganda, thinking it is negotiating from strength, but no-one else does, least of all Iran. US allies in the region are starting to realise the US will throw them under the bus for its own ends. Tankers (6), bulk cargo vessels (6) and other ships (4) are exiting the region, but most tankers are are heading to China, or in the Russian shadow fleet. Those who need insurance are holding back. But first, this week will feature the usual monthly real estate update releases later in the week, including for building consents. Plus the big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ. In Australia, the focus will be similar where we will be looking for early signs of housing market reactions from their new Budget settings. Elsewhere there will be important PMI updates from everywhere to give us indicators. In the US, their July 4 public holiday will happen on July 3 this year, so it will be a compressed week of labour market data there culminating in an early release of their June non-farm payrolls report when a +114,000 change is expected. In China, they say artificial intelligence is reshaping the global labour market not by triggering mass layoffs of existing workers but by causing employers to pull back on hirings for new, entry-level positions. China also reported industrial profits are recovering, up +21% in May from a year ago to ¥3.1 tln, and faster than the +18.8% rise for the first five months. The latest result reflects the ongoing AI investment boom and continued policy support for advanced industries despite lingering weakness in parts of the property-related sector. In the EU, an ECB survey revealed that median year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.5% in May, the lowest level in three months, down from 4.0% in each of the previous two months which were the highest readings since 2023. Longer-term inflation expectations were steady, at 2.9% for three years ahead. Consumers also expect house prices to rise by 3.6% over the next year, slightly below 3.7% in April. Expectations for mortgage interest rates were unchanged at 4.9%. According to the World Meteorological Organization they are saying the severe heat dome over Europe is expected to continue affecting much of Western, Central, and Southern Europe over the next two weeks. There are likely to be economic impacts soon, and as the summer progresses these impacts may well affect economic activity in a material way. And the Bank of International Settlements said over the weekend global pressures from rising public debt to financial fragilities, and questions about the sustainability of ​the AI boom, are increasing systemic financial risks which they suspect could end in a bust. They warned of a complex mix of vulnerabilities, including strained fiscal positions, lingering supply shocks and the risk of a renewed bout of high and sticky inflation. In the US their merchandise trade balance worsened in May. Imports rose +3.6% while exports fell -5.4%. These were much larger shifts than were anticipated. Clearly tariffs aren't working other than making imports more expensive and hurting exports. The net result was a -US$103.5 bln deficit for May, the largest in a year. And their largest May deficit ever. And we should also note that US inventories are rising and quite quickly. In May, wholesale inventories were up +4.4% from a year ago, retail inventories up +3.1%. The stockpiling we noted in their PMI activity is adding deadweight to their logistics systems The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised up to 49.5 in June, although that was less of a revision higher than expected. Still, sentiment improved from May which was the lowest level on record, supported in part by a moderation in petrol prices. And that is despite the fact they remain +31% higher than at the start of Trump's failed Iran adventure. But this didn't stop shoppers at Amazon's 'Prime Day' four-day shopping event. Prime Day 2026 was exclusively for Prime members and ran June 23-26. The wrap-up shows more than US$26 bln was spent in the period, up +9.3% from last year, and expected to be half related to inflation, half a volume gain. And in Australia, it seems that last week's auction results will show that they had their softest sales period in more than five years with many properties failing to sell. Also unfolding is the scale of mortgage fraud against banks by a surprisingly wide section of their mortgage broker community. To defend themselves, the banks are drawing up a black-list register so that brokers just don't go shopping around for vulnerabilities. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.37%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -12 bps for the week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4089/oz, up a net +US$15/oz from Saturday. That is down -US$66/oz from a week ago. Silver is now under US$59/oz, down -US$5.50 for the week. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$69/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$72/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$77.50 and US$80.50 respectively. Hormuz transits have eased off noticeably after the recent flare up in fighting with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) but 24 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over the past two days, more than two thirds of the exiting vessels were headed to China, 9% were Russian-linked, 5% headed for Singapore 4% to South Korea. There are still hundreds (459) yet to try their luck, no doubt inhibited by insurance issues. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just on 56.4 USc, down -100 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.3 which is down -110 bps for the week, and still its lowest since the GFC in 2009. The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,497 and down -0.5% from this time Saturday, and down -5.1% from this time last week Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Are you sitting tight in a three-bedroom home waiting for the property market to "improve"? You might be missing a massive strategic window.In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest "trade-up premium" data. They reveal why a softer housing market has actually made it significantly cheaper to upgrade to a four-bedroom home right now, with value gaps shrinking by up to 12% across major New Zealand regions.The guys also dive into a massive week of economic shifts. Between lower-than-expected Q1 GDP growth (0.8%) and cooling monthly inflation numbers, the previously "guaranteed" July OCR rate hike has suddenly hit a 50/50 standstill. Could the Reserve Bank hold off until September?Plus, we look at why property investors are showing early signs of election nervousness in the upcoming Chart Pack, and celebrate an epic weekend of Kiwi sport - from the Hurricanes' masterclass Super Rugby victory at the Cake Tin to the All Whites' tactical run.This week we discuss:The Shrinking Value Gap: Suburb-level shifts in the 3-to-4-bedroom price premium (and why downturns favour the bold buyer).The Macro Shift: Why 0.8% GDP and falling Q2 CPI projections (down to 4.0%) are giving the RBNZ pause.The Mechanics of the OCR Vote: Dissecting the 3-all split committee and the likelihood of one voter flipping back to a hold.Chart Pack Teaser: First-home buyer resilience vs. shifting investor sentiment ahead of the election.The Sports Wrap: A massive weekend for the Canes, the Black Caps, the Warriors, and the All Whites.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Join Senior Animal Protein Analyst Jen Corkran and Senior Market Strategist Ben Picton as they discuss the May Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting and the New Zealand budget. They unpack what happened at the RBNZ meeting, how the economy is performing, what is happening with the budget balance, and what it all might mean for the official cash rate and term interest rates.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The tide has officially turned for mortgage interest rates. Following the Reserve Bank's razor-edge split decision to hold the OCR last week, borrowers are hitting a major structural shift. An estimated 40% of all New Zealand mortgage debt is exposed to repricing in the next six months alone - shifting from a mindset of two years of falling rates straight into a rising rate wall.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse the macroeconomic consequences of this lag in monetary policy. We break down the newly updated Cotality Sales Volume Forecast Model, which officially strips 10,000 transactions out of our original 2026 projections.Plus, we dissect the internal vs. external board divide at the RBNZ, unpack the Government's council "consent bonus" budget initiative, and preview Thursday's upcoming May Home Value Index (HVI) results.This week we discuss:The Repricing Shock: Why 31% of fixed debt and 10% of floating debt are running directly into higher rates over the next six months.The 2-Year Fix Pivot: Why the mathematical reality of moving from a short-term fix to a 2-year runway means a 0.3% to 0.4% immediate lift in debt-servicing costs.Slashing the 2026 Model: Recalibrating the official housing metrics down to a flat 90,000 transaction ceiling for this year, with a potential slide below 90k in 2027.The Internal vs. External Divide: Analysing Cam Bagrie's take on why external MPC members are voting for rate hikes while internal RBNZ staff cling to optimistic GDP models.April Mortgage Lending Slowdown: Dissecting the $8 billion lending block and why bank switching and aggressive cashback windows are shutting.Council "Consent Bonuses": Reviewing the Government's infrastructure financial incentives for councils hitting high density targets.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

The text of the possible memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has not been finalised and confirmed to this point, according to Tasnim.A Romanian radio station reported that a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, near the border with Ukraine.The EU is to discuss restrictions on Chinese imports, although no decision was expected on Friday.Crude benchmarks are currently trading towards lows; Brent Aug'26 -1.6%.European bourses are broadly firmer this morning, whilst US equity futures are contained; Dell +37% post-earnings.DXY gains slightly, whilst the Kiwi outperforms after hawkish speak from RBNZ officials.Looking ahead, highlights include German Nationwide CPI (May), Canadian GDP (Q1). Speakers include Fed's Schmid, Bowman, Paulson & Daly. Credit Rating updates include S&P on France & Hungary, Morningstar DBRS on Spain.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The New Zealand Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold the OCR at 2.25 percent. Interestingly the decision was a split vote between holding and hiking. Governor Breman who is Chair of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on-hold vote was the tiebreaker, separating the views of external members and banks staff. The three external … Continue reading "RBNZ Hawkish Rate Hold Spells Higher Rates Ahead… But…"

The Reserve Bank Governor is feeling good about her captain's call to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25%. Anna Breman made the final decision after the six-member Monetary Policy Committee she chairs was evenly split on whether to hike the rate. Breman says she understands the argument for hiking but told Mike Hosking she doesn't think now's the right time. She says financial markets have already tightened quite a lot, and the economy is slowing down, which will reduce pressure on inflation over the medium term. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this special reaction episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest RBNZ OCR decision. The rate was held, but only just. The vote was split 3–3, with the Governor casting the deciding vote. This highlights how finely balanced the outlook is.The key message is that rate rises are likely coming. The OCR track has been revised higher. An increase as soon as July now looks probable. Some committee members wanted to hike now. Their view was to act early to limit future inflation risks.Inflation forecasts have been lifted. Headline inflation is expected to rise above 4% in the near term. This is driven by fuel and import costs. Core inflation is easing, however, and longer-term expectations remain stable. This creates uncertainty around how aggressive the RBNZ needs to be.Growth has been downgraded. The recovery is expected to be slower. Unemployment is set to stay elevated for the next 12–18 months.The housing market outlook is weak. House prices are expected to be flat or slightly down. Sales volumes also look subdued. Mortgage rates may rise further, although much has already been priced in.Overall, the OCR is on hold for now. But the balance has shifted. Future increases look increasingly likely.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

US Central Command spokesperson said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday, in which US forces hit targets, including missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines.Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East, while the IRGC affirm its right to respond to any ceasefire breach. Global bourses pare Monday's gains after renewed US strikes on Iranian sites, while Ferrari stalls following EV launch.DXY rangebound, Kiwi underperforms heading into RBNZ, Cable reverses from 1.35 while EUR firmer as Schnabel sees a June hike. Fixed income benchmarks hold a negative bias amid higher energy prices, as US strikes Iranian sites in "self-defence."Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Consumer Confidence (May), NBH Policy Announcement (May), Speakers include ECB's Sleijpen, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

This week, after a sharp rise in global bond yields, we await key inflation data in the US and Euro area, and discuss the fallout in Asia. We preview US core PCE and Euro area inflation, discuss a change in our Fed forecasts, and update on UK politics. In Asia, we preview decisions by the BOK and RBNZ, as well as core inflation in Singapore. And, in a special segment, Albert Leung, our Head of Asia rates strategy, discusses rising global bond yields and opportunities in Asia. Chapters: US: 2:10; London: 11:02, Asia: 16:50; Special Market Segment: 23:51

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Q1 2026 Pain and Gain Report is officially live, revealing the clear signals of a buyer's market. While 88% of property resellers still walked away with a gross profit, the share of properties selling at a loss has ticked up to 12% - driven heavily by short hold periods and a challenging apartment sector.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the stark reality of the 4-year median hold period for loss-makers compared to the 10-year safety net for profitable sales. We also look at the April Selected Price Indexes data, discuss Nick's onstage debate with Kiwibank's Jarrod Kerr regarding the necessity of a July OCR hike, and track the quiet turnaround in net migration figures.This week we discuss:Q1 Pain and Gain Report: Why gross profits have fallen from a peak of $440,000 down to a median of $285,000.The hold period reality: The mathematical proof that buying at the 2021 peak and selling in 2026 guarantees a tough result.Apartment vulnerability: Why 41% of apartments resold at a loss during the quarter.April price indexes: Understanding why domestic price segments are softening even as diesel and petrol spike.The July OCR debate: Nick outlines the demand destruction argument that suggests the RBNZ should hold fire.Migration & rents: Net migration climbs back to almost 25,000, adding steady structural demand to a highly volatile rental market.Investor anxiety: Anecdotal feedback from Auckland on interest deductibility and long-term cash flow fears.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

US President Trump said he has a plan on Iran and repeated that their proposal is unacceptable, while he added that the US blockade on Iran was part of military genius.US President Trump said the ceasefire is unbelievably weak and is on life support, but added that a diplomatic solution with Iran is still possible.US President Trump was reported to have met with his national security team on Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, Axios sources reported.The White House said US President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi on Thursday at 10:15 AM in Beijing (03:15BST/22:15EDT), and a banquet will be held at 18:00 on Thursday (11:00BST/06:00EDT).APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a negative open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.7%.Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP Final (Apr), ZEW (May), US Inflation (Apr), ADP Employment Change Weekly, EIA STEO (May), and EU Informal Meeting of Energy Ministers (May 12-13), Australian federal budget. Speakers include RBNZ's Bremen, BoC's Macklem, ECB's Elderson, Fed's Williams & Goolsbee. Supply from the Netherlands, UK, Germany & US. Earnings from JD com, Under Armour, Siemens Energy, Munich Re, Bayer & Vodafone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The April Home Value Index (HVI) results are in, and while the national median technically rose by a modest 0.1%, the broader picture is one of a flattening market. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson peel back the layers on the regional divide - why are Auckland and Wellington softening while Christchurch and Invercargill continue to climb?We also dive into a surprising dose of 'hopium' from the March economic data. With filled jobs up 0.3% and the NZ Activity Index (NZAC) hitting its fastest growth in over three years, we ask if the economy is showing more resilience than expected, or if these are simply lagging indicators of a pre-conflict world.This week, we discuss:April HVI results: The national median is up 0.1%, but regional variability is the real story.The regional divide: Why Auckland's supply pipeline and Wellington's 'vibe' shift are weighing on values compared to the farming-backed strength of the south.March economic resilience: Filled jobs grew by 0.3%, and the NZAC rose 3.2% - could Q1 GDP be stronger than the RBNZ expects?Labour market preview: Why we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4% this week.RBNZ watch: A preview of Wednesday's Financial Stability Review (FSR) and the ongoing quest for transparency.First home buyer report: A teaser for our upcoming release with Westpac, including surprising data on buyer ages.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Major changes are set to make future Official Cash Rate decisions far more transparent. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee will release details of who voted which way to the public if they're unable to come to consensus. Committee members are also encouraged to speak openly about monetary policy. Former Reserve Bank Special Advisor Geof Mortlock told Mike Hosking that he and other economists have been advising Treasury and the Minister to move in this direction for some time. He says it'll strengthen the accountability and transparency of the Committee. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We can thank the new Reserve Bank Governor for ending the week on a high note. New charter details were announced yesterday. Charters and Reserve Banks were once as dry as old dust but these days I think we have a new understanding of the importance of their role. Out of Covid and economic shambles has come more talk than ever about cash rates and inflation and debt and wasteful expenditure. The main change for me is the Monetary Policy votes will be made public, and not a moment too soon. They are already starting to hold press conferences after each decision. Some decisions are statements, some are reviews and, as such, carry different amounts of detail and information. But the idea that they front after each decision shouldn't be new. It should have always happened. Just what was it about the thinking at the lower end of the terrace in the capital that had them believing that simply putting out a statement was plenty. Why wouldn't they want questions? Why wouldn't they want to be held to account? Given everything is streamed these days you can watch it all. There's no need for a journalist to cut and paste a few so-called highlights to skew the narrative. Free and open and complete accountability should be welcomed, and this is overdue. But as for the vote, the same thinking applies. If you hold the power of a committee member and if you get a say in a mechanism as important as the country's cash rate, once again, what's your argument for remaining quiet? To keep it a secret? If the vote is 5-1, who is the one and why? What's wrong with an explanation? For example, there were four dissenting votes yesterday at the Fed. Let's hear about it. Knowledge is power and the fact we are only at this place in 2026 is a crime of sorts. A condescending attitude where they clearly thought we didn't need to know. So far new Governor Dr Anna Breman has introduced pressers, changed the charter and promised to at least partially look through the immediate inflationary impact of the war. So far, so impressive. I like the cut of her gib. Orr vs Breman? No contest. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Q1 2026 CPI data is finally in, landing at a ho-hum 3.1%. While it's technically above the target band, the market has already moved on to the next big question: exactly when will the RBNZ hold its nerve no longer and lift the OCR?This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the inflation stats and why July vs September is the current 50/50 bet for the first rate hike. We also dive into the latest Chart Pack data showing a soggy 4% year-on-year drop in sales volumes for the quarter, and respond to a listener request for a dedicated rural property market roundup.This week we discuss:Q1 CPI data: Why 3.1% was exactly what the market expected and why the calm before the storm remains the theme for the beginning of 2026.OCR timing: July or September? We look at the data gaps facing the Monetary Policy Committee in their upcoming meetings.Soggy sales volumes: Breaking down the 4% quarterly decline in transactions and what it says about buyer/seller capitulation.Lending rule speculation: Could the RBNZ use LVR or DTI settings as a relief valve while the OCR stays high?Rural roundup: A deep dive into agricultural debt, input costs vs output prices, and why farm sales might actually be looking up.Te Kaha stadium: Kelvin reports back from the opening Super Round at Christchurch's new world-class venue.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

US President Trump said he views the war as being very close to over, according to Fox.US President Trump said he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn't think it will be necessary, according to reports citing an ABC reporter on X.US Vice President JD Vance said they are negotiating with Iran and the ceasefire is holding, while he also stated Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal, and he feels good about where they are.US President Trump's full interview on Fox Business will be aired on April 15th at 06:00EDT/11:00BST.APAC stocks were mostly higher; European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1%Looking ahead, highlights include French HICP Final (Mar), EZ Industrial Production (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include Fed's Barr & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey, SNB's Schlegel, RBA's Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Hermes.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

AP reported that effort to extend the US-Iran ceasefire has made progress with mediators aiming to extend for at least another two weeks. Both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reported citing US officials. This move aims to pressure Iran while the US mulls the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.European bourses mixed, Luxury suffers on KER FP and RMS FP while ASML raises FY guidance; US equity futures flat with Morgan Stanley and BofA ahead. DXY muted, GBP/USD retreats from 1.36 with UK GDP later in the week.Global fixed benchmarks trade cautiously awaiting President Trump and central bank speakers.Commodities tread water in anticipation of a second US-Iran meeting.Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include US President Trump, Fed's Barr, Hammack & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Nagel & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey, Greene, SNB's Schlegel, RBA's Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Earnings from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US is reportedly eyeing a potential second round of in-person talks with Iran as the blockade takes hold, according to CNN.AP reported that the US and Iran could be headed toward a second round of talks, which could happen on Thursday.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.An IRGC spokesperson said that if the war continues, they will unveil capabilities that the enemy has no idea about, according to SNN.APAC stocks traded higher as risk sentiment was underpinned by hopes regarding US-Iran peace talks; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4%.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF Final (Mar), German Wholesale Prices (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Mar), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IEA OMR (Apr), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Supply from the Netherlands & Germany. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo, BMW & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Next round of talks between US and Iran could take place this week or early next week, according to the Iranian embassy official in Pakistan.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.Energy eases amid continued reports of further US-Iran talks.Global equities gain on positive risk tone; US banks ahead.DXY soften, Kiwi continues to outperform while JPY helped modestly by reports BoJ is to increase price forecast.Fixed benchmarks gain, heavy speaker slate ahead. Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that this will be a double-sided ceasefire.Trump confirmed they received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate, while he stated that almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the US and Iran.Iran accepted Pakistan's two-week ceasefire proposal, with the ceasefire approved by the Supreme Leader, while Iran said negotiations with the US will be held in Islamabad to finalise details and that talks are to begin on Friday, April 10th and may be extended if both sides agree.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's statement, which was posted by Trump on Truth, stated that for a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed ForcesAPAC stocks rallied with markets euphoric and relieved after US President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire; European equity futures indicate a stellar open for the cash market with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up over 5%.Crude futures tumbled beneath the USD 100/bbl level, DXY was pressured; RBNZ maintained rates as expected but provided some hawkish-leaning rhetoric.Looking ahead, highlights include French Trade Balance (Feb), EZ Retail Sales (Feb), PPI (Feb), FOMC Minutes, Speakers including Fed's Daly, Waller & US President Trump, Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that this will be a double-sided ceasefire. Energy slumps, with Brent slipping below USD 95/bbl.Trump confirmed they received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate, while he stated that almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the US and Iran.Iranian Press SNN noted of a potential ceasefire violation, highlighting several explosions that occurred in Siri and Lavan islands.Iran's National Security Council said that within a few hours, if firing does not stop in southern Lebanon, the air and missile unit will bomb Tel AvivGlobal equities find comfort, airlines and miners highly benefit.USD hit, Kiwi outperforms amid RBNZ hike discussion.Bonds soar and the curve steepens, with central bank paring back hawkish bets. Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes, Speakers including Fed's Daly, Waller & US President Trump, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

This week, we look back at the effects already being felt across the global economy. In the US, we preview employment and inflation releases, and outline why we pushed back the timing of our Fed cut expectations. In Europe, we discuss the latest inflation data, how this shock differs from 2022, and the political response to recent developments. In Asia, we note that the shock is evolving into broader supply shortages, preview March CPI prints, and discuss rate decisions by RBI, BoK, and RBNZ. Chapters: US: 2:25; Europe: 8:44; Asia: 14:56

An independent economist says it will be at least a few months before any deeper effects of the oil price hikes are felt in the local economy.