Podcasts about rbnz

Send Us A Message! Let us know what you think.Topic #1:  The Mortgage Mag 9th of July - Mortgage rates may have bottomed already as RBNZ holds OCRTopic #2: NZ Adviser 8th of July -NZ housing market dips as buyers gain leverageTopic #3: RNZ 9th of July - No climate change buy-outs in future, expert group tells governmentTopic #4: Realestate.co.nz 9th of July -The New Zealand Property Report Good news for renters as national rental price falls for another monthTopic #5: RNZ 8th of July - Government to loosen rules for selling homes in trustsSupport the show*Nothing from this episode should be taken as individual financial advice. *Property Advice Group Limited trading as Property Apprentice has been granted a FULL Licence with the Financial Markets Authority of New Zealand. (FSP Number: FSP157564) Debbie Roberts | Financial Adviser (FSP221305) For our Public disclosure statement please go to our website or you may request a copy free of charge.

Today we look at the latest from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand where rates were held, though following cuts of 2.25%, compared with the RBA 0.5%. Uncertainly remains the watchword. So we reflect on the different inflation track, and look at rental inflation in particular, in the light of the latest Domain data showing … Continue reading "Central Banks In Wonderland: As RBNZ Holds Too!"

Join Jen Corkran and Ben Picton as they dissect the RBA and RBNZ's July interest rate decisions. Jen and Ben discuss what's keeping central bankers in each country up at night and what we can expect in the months ahead for interest rates.   RaboResearch Disclaimer: Please refer to our Australian RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com.au/knowledge/disclaimer, our New Zealand RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.co.nz/knowledge/disclaimer, and our Global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011410028/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the Australian, New Zealand, and Global RaboResearch material published on the podcast.

APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside where tariff updates remained in focus.US President Trump said he will announce something on pharmaceuticals very soon and will be announcing semiconductor tariffs, believes the copper tariff will be 50%.President Trump said the US is probably two days off from sending the EU a letter, which means a deal.European equity futures indicate a slightly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.6% on Tuesday.DXY is a touch higher with the USD mixed vs. peers (stronger vs. havens, weaker vs. antipodeans).RBNZ maintained the OCR at 3.25%, as expected, hinted at future rate cuts ahead.Looking ahead, highlights include BoE FSR, FOMC Minutes, RBA's Hunter, BoE Governor Bailey, ECB's Lane, Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump flagged the release of at least 7 tariff letters today. Reports that the EU is closing in on a temporary "framework" agreement, via FT.European bourses began modestly firmer and have been grinding higher since, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%; German autos bid on trade nuances, Basic Resources hit by non-US copper performance, Media lags after WPPStateside, futures are in the green and directionally in-fitting with Europe but gains are much more muted, ES +0.2%; updates around AAPL, NVDA, AMZN in focusUSD steady with G10s mixed but essentially flat. RBNZ as expected, no significant NZD move.Fixed benchmarks have a modest upward bias, though they remain markedly lower on the week; today's action in Europe is a retracement of Tuesday's supply-induced pressure rather than a pronounced move higher.Crude has an upward bias, specifics light. XAU softer. Front-running of US copper into potential tariffs has widened the Comex-LME arbitrage to over USD 2,000/t.Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes, Speakers include ECBʼs Lane, Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from the US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Reserve Bank left the OCR on hold at 3.25 percent - with the bank claiming it was waiting for more economic data. Economists widely suspected the RBNZ wouldn't cut rates any further, and they believe there's more cuts to come. Milford Asset Management's Remy Morgan unpacked the market reactions. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a textMore Trump letters to be sent, with copper, chips and pharmas next on the tariff list. Dollar struggles to hold recent gains, except versus the yen. US equities on the back foot, underperforming their European counterparts. RBNZ stands pat; Antipodeans post small gains against the greenback.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

The Reserve Bank's expected to press pause on the Official Cash Rate this afternoon, but that's not it's only option. The OCR's sitting at 3.2% after six consecutive rates reductions since last August. Mortgage rates have followed it down over that time, falling to about 5%. ANZ Chief economist Sharon Zollner told Andrew Dickens a 25-basis-point cut wouldn't be a bad idea, given GDP may have gone backwards. She says that more than offsets the fact that GDP in the first three months was stronger than expected. Zollner says it matters quite a bit that momentum's flagging at the moment. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On 9 July, the Reserve Bank will once again announce whether it plans to lift, hold, or cut the Official Cash Rate. In this podcast, we'll explore what we think might happen and share some data that suggests they may decide to hold steady, for nowFind us here: Book a call with us: https://nextadvisory.nz/#book-online Visit our Instagram page: https://www.instagram.com/nextadvisory.nz/ Access to our free business planning and cashflow module: https://www.skool.com/nextadvisory-business-basics-5934/about

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is working out how live with a capricious America.First though, the week ahead will feature Wednesday afternoon's OCR review from the RBNZ, preceded Tuesday by the RBA's cash rate review. The Aussies are expected to cut their rate by -25 bps to 3.60% but the RBNZ is expected to hold at 3.25%. We will be covering the outcomes and implications of both reviews.Both Malaysia and South Korea will also be reviewing their official rates. The Malaysian will likely leave their rate unchanged at 3.00%, and the South Koreans are expected to cut theirs by -25 bps to 2.25%.In the US, apparently negotiating trade deals is complicated (who knew?) so Trump is dispensing with all that and just "sending letters" unilaterally. "90 deals in 90 days" is too hard for him. He might have got one over the line with Vietnam (he claims but the Vietnamese haven't confirmed). He sort of got one with the UK but before the 90 day clock started. And the China one he claims leaves the US in a worse position. His Treasury Secretary is promising "a few more" over the next few days and weeks. "Best deal maker of all time".And we should probably note that the integrity of official US data, from the Census Bureau, the BLS and the BEA, all now under Trump control (in the Lutnick Commerce Department), is getting increasingly questioned. Sharp budget cutbacks is resulting in fewer actual surveys, more 'estimates by officials'. Even Fed boss Powell expressed concern over the issue in questioning at the recent Congressional testimony. The data reporters are moving to a "Make Trump Look Good" approach.Suspicion is rising because there are widespread indications tariff-tax price increases are being pushed through but the BLS data isn't reflecting that.In China we will get CPI and PPI updates for June later this week. It would be supremely ironic if users came to view Chinese economic data was more trustworthy than American. It no longer seems far-fetched.Across the Pacific in Japan, household spending jumped +4.7% in May from a year ago, reversing a -0.1% fall in April and far exceeding an expected +1.2% rise. It was their fastest growth since August 2022, and that August 2022 was only good because it was off the very weak pandemic-affected base a year earlier.Singaporean retail sales rose by +1.4% in May from a year ago, accelerating from a downwardly revised +0.2% rise in April. This was the third straight month of growth and the fastest annual increase since January. But to be fair, most of the increase was driven by car sales, a very expensive and exclusive corner of their retail sector.Next, halfway around the world, EU producer prices eased again in May so that it is only +0.4% higher than year ago levels, less in the euro area. The past three months have delivered producer prices lower than in each of the prior months.German factory orders dropped by -1.4% in May from April and that was weaker than expected, but the April gain was revised higher. The May weakness however came after some very large-scale computer, electronic and optical orders in April. From a year ago, these factory orders were up +5.3%.And we should probably note that EU house prices are rising, up +5.7% from a year ago led by 10%-plus gains in Portugal (+16%), Bulgaria (+15%), Croatia (+13%), Slovakia (+12%), Hungary (+12%), and Spain (+12%).In Australia, household spending rose in May and by more than expected with a good recovery from a weak month in April. This spending was up +4.2% from May a year ago. It was their best gain in 7 months.The FAO food price index was little-changed in June from May, holding its gains from a year ago. Within that, both meat and dairy prices rose.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, and unchanged from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, and unchanged from Saturday.American oil prices are unchanged at just under US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is also little-changed at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.6 USc, unchanged from Saturday. For the week it is up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 68 and up +10 bps from yesterday, and unchanged for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,921 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

A crucial week looms, both internationally as well as here in New Zealand. Markets are eagerly awaiting the end of the President Trump's 90-day reciprocal tariff extension, which expires on July 9th. Closer to home, all eyes will be on the RBNZ, to see if it leaves the OCR unchanged as expected, or surprises markets with another cut.

The UK saw another round of combined sterling and gilt weakness, a pattern which is becoming worryingly familiar. Politics elsewhere seemed to have run a bit more smoothly with the US budget bill passing through the Senate and House, teeing up some degree of fiscal expansion for the year ahead. Tariffs remain on the agenda for the week ahead, as we approach the 9 July deadline. In Asia, we focus on the Bank of Korea's likely hawkishness relative to potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Chapters: (US: 02:14, Asia: 08:53, Australia & New Zealand: 13:53, EMEA: 16:33).

Send us a textJuly 9 tariff deadline looms as trade deals remain elusive. Fed minutes to be watched after positive jobs report. RBA expected to cut but RBNZ to likely stay on hold. OPEC+ to probably raise output again. UK GDP and Canadian employment also on tap.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Will the RBNZ cut rates in July or keep Kiwis waiting? We unpack why the Reserve Bank might hold off on cutting the OCR, from unexpected GDP growth and stubborn inflation to the global oil price shocks that could hit your mortgage and financial plans.Next Steps: For tailored advice on your mortgage strategy ahead of the next OCR decision, talk to the team at Lighthouse Financial today.For more money tips follow us on:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The content in this podcast is the opinion of the hosts. It should not be treated as financial advice. It is important to take into consideration your own personal situation and goals before making any financial decisions.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are now halfway through 2025, closer to the next summer holiday break than the last one. We may need it more this time because economic 'progress' is hard to find.Looking ahead this week, the big end of month data dumps for May from the RBNZ will give us an updated look at mortgage and term deposit activity. The ANZ will also update us on their business sentiment survey for June. Then later in the week the June updates from the real estate industry will be released.In Australia it will also be about retail and trade updates for May.The week end with the US on another summer holiday break, this one for their Independence Day. Their June labour market report will come a day earlier this week (another low +129,000 is expected), preceded by PMI updates from all over. Markets also expect the US to announce tariff actions after the so-called 90 day pause. But Trump deadlines mean little in war and other diplomatic areas so don't be surprised if they mean little here too. He will go head if they don't hurt his own businesses, pull back if they do.Of more importance to us will be the results of both Chinese and Japanese data and surveys.In China, deflationary pressures not helped by the tariff war are keeping China's industrial profits in a low zone. They barely hit ¥600 bln in May and that was their lowest level for a May month since 2019 and -9.1% lower than May 2024. For the five months they were down -1.1% so the pace of decline is unfortunately building.Across the Pacific in the US, the squeeze on American household incomes shows up in the latest data for personal incomes and spending, this data for May. Incomes were only +1.7% higher than a year ago. Decreases in income support for struggling households is showing up in this data. And after inflation, they will be going backwards on the income front. On the consumption front, spending was up +2.2% from a year ago, also lower than the May 2.4% CPI inflation.This is a sure sign of rising economic stress that is spreading.The final reading of the University of Michigan survey of June consumer sentiment was out overnight and it confirmed the spreading household stress. This survey has been stuck at one of its worst readings on record for two months after plunging almost -30% in the first four months of 2025. Over the 80 years of the survey, a drop this large this fast has almost always predicted a recession. Sentiment readings improved slightly at the start of June but were -18% lower than at the start of the year to indicate Americans expect much higher prices and a much slower economy in the coming year. It should be no surprise this is the outcome of the changed US public policy direction - but the financial markets are ignoring this signal; willfully it seems.They seem to be overlooking these same survey results that show sentiment has fallen fastest this year for the most well-off consumers, whose post-pandemic spending spree helped insulate the American economy from recession then. They aren't there to do it this time, according to the UofM survey data.In Canada, they got weekend news that Trump is going to use tariffs to punish them for trying to tax US Big Tech companies via its Digital Services Tax initiative. The US wants free access to Canada and tax-free. Earlier the Canadians had confirmed the DST, which had been passed by their Parliament, would go into effect on June 30.Separately, Canada has ordered one of the world's largest video surveillance equipment manufacturers, State-owned Hikvision, to cease operations there on national security grounds. The order bars Hikvision from conducting business in Canada and prohibits government departments and agencies from purchasing its products. Existing installations of Hikvision equipment across government properties are under review to ensure their eventual removal. Hikvision cameras and monitoring systems are widely available in Australia and New Zealand.Economic sabotage may be spreading, but so are climate risks. It is early in the northern hemisphere summer season still, but both the US and Europe are struggling with dangerous heat dome conditions. China is not immune. These are sure to have economic implications if they extend through to September as expected.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27%, and unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,273/oz, and little-changed from Saturday. A week ago it was at US$3365/oz so a -2.8% fall from then.American oil prices are +50c softer from Saturday at just on US$65/bbl while the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.6 USc, up +20 bps from Saturday. A week ago it was at 59.7 USc so a net +1.5% appreciation. Against the Aussie we are -10 bps softer at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.1 and +10 bps firmer than Saturday. A week ago it was at 67.7 so a net +40 bps gain.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,509 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Send Us A Message! Let us know what you think.Topic #1:  RNZ 19th of June - House prices to be '20% lower in 2030s than 2021' - forecastTopic #2: Good Returns 18th of June -Rising inflation adding to RBNZ's headacheTopic #3: Stuff 19th of June -Kāinga Ora to halt over 200 developments, sell vacant landTopic #4: RNZ 19th of June - Quarter of households rely on government housing supportTopic #5: 1News 17th of June - How long will better times for renters last?Support the show*Nothing from this episode should be taken as individual financial advice. *Property Advice Group Limited trading as Property Apprentice has been granted a FULL Licence with the Financial Markets Authority of New Zealand. (FSP Number: FSP157564) Debbie Roberts | Financial Adviser (FSP221305) For our Public disclosure statement please go to our website or you may request a copy free of charge.

The Finance Minister's revealed top-level legal advice was sought over the Reserve Bank's battle with Treasury for funding. The bank received less money than it anticipated in the latest funding round - which prompted Adrian Orr to quit as Governor. NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny unpacks the issue further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Finance Minister's revealed top-level legal advice was sought over the Reserve Bank's battle with Treasury for funding. The bank received less money than it anticipated in the latest funding round - which prompted Adrian Orr to quit as Governor. NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny unpacks the issue further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Finance Minister made it clear she was unimpressed with the way the RBNZ handled public communication around Adrian Orr's departure. Reserve Bank board chair Neil Quigley recently revealed he 'regretted' the time it took to release information around Orr's surprise resignation. Nicola Willis says the central bank could have provided some clarifying statements more promptly than they did. "As soon as they'd worked through what they could say with the former governor, there was obviously significant public interest in that information. And it would have been in everybody's best interests for them to share that at an earlier junction." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's hardly a surprise, is it? Adrian looks at what Nicola is offering to run the place, packs a sad, and is off. It's a pathetic end to a tumultuous period in which we, the people who paid him, deserved an awful lot better. The fact this information on the Orr resignation had to be dragged out of the bank by way of the Official Information Act, the rules of which were ignored as the bank failed to meet deadlines, shows you just what sort of place we are dealing with. How you conduct yourself is critical. It's critical to all of us and even more critical the further up the totem pole you are. There's nothing wrong with Adrian quitting if he genuinely believed the money being offered to run the bank wasn't enough. But you do it with some dignity. You quit, you serve out your period, you offer reasons for you quitting and you move on with life. In doing it that way you give us all an insight into what sort of human being you are. And in this case, you might well have been able to give us insight into how your organisation runs, what its thinking is, what the gap is between the bank and the Government and why you might be right, and they might be wrong. It doesn't have to turn into a scrap or a fallout. Just a series of adult ideas as to why people might see things at odds to each other. If Covid taught us nothing else, it taught us the critical role of a central bank and what sort of people run it. The way Adrian ran it is well documented and the general view held by many is widely traversed. But the sudden departure was another insight into why Adrian did things the way he did. He is petulant. You don't leave out of the blue and in silence. You don't bail on hosting an international finance conference having said you were looking forward to it. It's toys and sandpits with Adrian and then obfuscation from the bank when a few simple questions were asked. If you can't conduct yourself, and the bank can't conduct themselves, with any great level of clarity, transparency and professionalism, is it any wonder the economy got run over the way it did? Ol' Adrian won't be missed. But you would have hoped for something a bit more sophisticated on the way out. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Finance Minister says the Reserve Bank should have given the reasons behind Governor Adrian Orr's abrupt departure - sooner. It released documents yesterday showing Orr resigned over Government funding being well below the Budget allocation he sought. Nicola Willis criticised the central bank's delay in outlining the reasons. NZ Herald political editor Thomas Coughlan explained further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Reserve Bank economist is calling out his former employers' lack of transparency. The bank today revealed Adrian Orr quit as Governor in March, when the five-year funding for the RBNZ was much less than anticipated. Michael Reddell says the bank waited far too long to say why Orr left so abruptly. "It's just extraordinary - maybe they couldn't tell us the full story on the day, but the new Reserve Bank funding agreement was published on the 16th of April. There's absolutely no excuse at this point for lack of clarity." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former Reserve Bank economist is calling out his former employers' lack of transparency. The bank today revealed Adrian Orr quit as Governor in March, when the five-year funding for the RBNZ was much less than anticipated. Michael Reddell says the bank waited far too long to say why Orr left so abruptly. "It's just extraordinary - maybe they couldn't tell us the full story on the day, but the new Reserve Bank funding agreement was published on the 16th of April. There's absolutely no excuse at this point for lack of clarity." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Call me superficial, but to watch the Reserve Bank heavyweights lined up, as I did Wednesday post their cash rate decision, I did not see dynamism. These people outwardly do not fill you with any sense of excitement. The Reserve Bank is in a spot and, as a result, so are we as a country. A couple of semi-interesting things happened and also one very interesting thing. They voted 5 to 1 to cut. They don't vote that often. They also offered alternative scenarios, which they haven't done for five years. Alternative scenarios are not a good sign. If you have enough of them, you are literally making stuff up. Anyone can drum up alternative scenarios. What I want to hear more of from experts is what is actually going on. The important stuff is they have no bias on further cuts. A lot of people thought we would get a cut yesterday, followed by one, possibly two, more. The so-called "neutral rate", that's the cash rate settling at 2.75% or 2.5% – that now seems to be off the table. Why? They argue inflation, which is what drives them. That's their mandate. The trouble with that is inflation is only just in the band. It's heading more towards the top of the band and here is the really big part – growth, or large dollops of growth, are not driving this inflation. We are barely growing, if growing at all. Yet inflation is still a thing. That's not good for an economy and it's not good for the Government. The Government, namely Willis and Luxon, leap, and have leapt, on each announcement talking about the money coming back into the economy as the interest rates drop. If the bank isn't cutting, then rates aren't dropping, and we aren't spending or feeling remotely bullish. The Reserve Bank doesn't care that much because they are fixated on inflation, whether it's driven by factors beyond our control —like insurance, shipping or councils— or growth. Yes, we had growth in Q1. It was quite good growth too. The live GDP tracker has Q2 up a bit, but not much. But it has annual numbers negative and inflation trending up. What we need is help. We are in a quagmire we need to extricate ourselves from. The Reserve Bank doesn't look like they are that interested. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank cut the Official Cash Rate this week, as expected, but one of the six members of the bank's rate setting committee voted to hold the OCR. That surprised markets and pushed up the wholesale interest rates that drive fixed mortgage rates. Bernard Hickey speaks with Kiwibank's Mary Jo Vergara about a very uncertain outlook for rates in the wake of Donald Trump's Liberation Day shock. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A new face is coming to New Zealand's coins. An image of King Charles has officially been approved to feature on the 10 cent coin from 2027. 2024 will be stamped on the currency – the year the Reserve Bank ordered them. A koruru image will remain on the reverse side, as it has since 1967. Ian Woolford, Director of Money and Cash at the Reserve Bank, told Mike Hosking it's taken so long as they already have quite a big inventory of coins and bank notes. He says 10 cent coins are the ones they need to stock up on, which is why they're the first cab off the rank. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

European bourses opened mixed but now in the red, US futures also lower ahead of NVIDIA results.USD is fractionally extending on Tuesday's upside, Kiwi leads after RBNZ delivers a hawkish cut.40yr JGB auction weighs, awaiting US supply & FOMC Minutes.Energy markets await JMMC/OPEC+; Metals tread water.US President Trump says Canada joining the Golden Dome is free if they are the 51st State, adding "They are considering the offer!".Looking ahead, US Richmond Fed Index, FOMC Minutes, OPEC+/JMMC, Speakers including BoE's Pill, Supply from the US, Earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce, Abercrombie & Macy's.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

New Zealand has been on a more aggressive monetary policy path, having pushed rates high enough to create a recession, then cut them again after starting its easing cycle in August lowering the OCR by 225 points including another 25 basis points today, making the RBNZ one of the most aggressive rate cutters among its … Continue reading "Kiwis Get Another Rate Cut: But Will Home Prices Respond?"

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 29th of May, the Reserve Bank made the decision to cut the OCR by 25 basis points, but did we get any sort of clear direction for the future? Acting Governor Christian Hawkesby is on the show. The Prime Minister has recovered from his illness and is on the program to give his reaction to the OCR announcement and the public service leaks. We love Tami Nielson, so when she has a new NZ tour to announce, a new single, a new album coming soon, and multiple NZ Music Awards nominations, we had to get her on for a chat. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Don't bank on further cuts to the Official Cash Rate. The Reserve Bank's dropped the OCR 25 basis points to 3.25%, and is now forecasting it could reach a low of 2.9% by the end of the year. But Governor Christian Hawkesby says further cuts aren't guaranteed. He told Mike Hosking they're taking things one step at a time, as they wait to see how global developments affect the economy and inflation. Hawkesby says the OCR is now close to "neutral" and the Reserve Bank's next move won't be pre-programmed, it will depend on how things unfold. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Thursday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Can We Get a Bit More Ooomph?/Powering Up Chippie/Running and Rolling/Overnight CoffeeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A lack of consensus at the Reserve Bank on yesterday's cut to the OCR reflects the global economic uncertainty. The Monetary Policy Committee has dropped the cash rate 25-basis points to 3.25%, and now expects to reach a 2.9% low-point in December. However, further cuts are uncertain, with the bank adopting a watch and wait approach. ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge they still believe we'll get another cut next month, but it's uncertain how far the Bank will go. He says it's possible we will pause at some point. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a textUS dollar extends rebound, yen edges up too as bond yields creep up again. But stocks mixed amid persisting worries about US economy and debt. Kiwi up after RBNZ signals end of rate cuts, oil eyes OPEC decision. Can Fed minutes and Nvidia earnings turn around sentiment?Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

BNZ's the latest bank to drop its home loan rates, anticipating a change to the Official Cash Rate this afternoon. The Reserve Bank's expected to cut the OCR 25 basis point to 3.25%. Already BNZ's cut its fixed rates to as low as 4.89%, and its standard variable rate to 6.44%. BNZ chief economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking today's decision should indicate the Reserve Bank's general direction, but it probably won't reveal anything too specific. He says that seems to be the playbook offshore, allowing it to take its time and assess the lay of the land at the next meeting. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

To give you an insight into just how hard Christian Hawkesby's job is today, have a look at what the shadow board says. The NZIER has a monetary policy shadow board. It's a bunch of economists and their view as to what should be happening. Some say drop by 25 basis points, one says 50, and some say don't do anything. How do you deal with that? These are experts. They know what they are doing. Or do they? So no matter what Christian does some of them are going to go "what on Earth was he thinking?" Think about the difference between 50 basis points and nothing. 50 basis points is a lot. 50 means things aren't good, and we need to fire the place up a bit. If we don't move it means things are just where we want them. Are they where we want them? No, is my answer. But then I'm not an economist. Most of them say things like "boy this is tricky". My word is "uncertainty" – the watch word of the day. It's through this murky mix of "who the hell knows what's going on" that Christian has to wade and produce something that will see us head into a half decent Christmas. Of course that's part of the mess we are in. There is a lot of water to go under our beleaguered bridge before Christmas, and a number of decisions from the Reserve Bank, along of course with the much-dissected commentary. What does 25, or 50 basis points, or nothing, mean? What's old Christian thinking? I'll tell you this for nothing – a big part of this equation is mood. It's the same with the Budget last week and the depreciation measures. You have to want to get amongst it. You have to take your mortgage rate cut and do something with it. You have to want to buy your tractor, or ute, and depreciate it by 20%. If you are in a funk and you're not spending, then depreciating 20% of zero is nothing and no one gains. Christian, or Nicola for that matter, can't do it all. At some point we have to believe. We have to have our arm twisted. We have to see a bit of light. The most powerful factor in any economy is us, and mood. At some point a switch has to go off, a decision has to be made, and we need to look forward to better days. Let's hope today is a part of that story. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The pressure is on the new Reserve Bank fill-in Governor tomorrow. Although given it's a committee, in theory he is more of a messenger. It's reported that we have increased calls for a 50 basis point cut. Why? Because things aren't flash. If you read business results in the current reporting season, a lot of commentary tells us the recovery is underway. Things are looking better. We can certainly see that, for example, with retail spending. The numbers produced just last Friday for the opening quarter of the year are up, and in some parts of the sector they're up quite a bit. We have seen manufacturing expanding for several months in a row now. So those are the fact-based statistics. The other measures, like confidence, have dropped. We see people in the doldrums. But that is a vibe. Can you find people who are in the doldrums? Of course you can. But does a vibe lead to a lack of action or a lack of spend? Or do we say one thing and do another? We also read a lot about this “uncertainty”. The uncertainty is of course Donald Trump, because Trump is increasingly seen as insane. It may well all end in tears, threatening tariffs on Europe one day then delaying it all until July the next. Against this, the Reserve Bank Governor has to work out whether to drop the OCR by 25 or 50 basis points. If it's 50, does that gee us all up and out we go and fire things up? If so, then next thing you know inflation is sparked up. Does he go 25 and hint at another 25, and may even another 25? What does he say about inflation and its uptick already, not just here but globally? Do we have the growth to support any such uptick? Is the uptick driven by actual activity, or still people just putting their prices up? As someone said, who on Earth would want to be Reserve Bank Governor? And our one isn't even under the constant threat of being fired. Thank the good Lord that we indisputably have an export-led recovery of sorts. Meat and wine and kiwifruit are doing the business. But that's over there, over here we are still in a funk. So, what to do? Your move Christian. No pressure then.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the property market, focusing on first home buyer activity, labour market data, and the implications for the economy and the RBNZ's OCR decision at the end of the month. They also explore the importance of energy efficiency in housing (thanks to the NZGBC report) and the dynamics of the rental market, thanks to a listener question. The conversation highlights the challenges and opportunities facing buyers and investors in the current economic climate.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@cotality.co.nz

The Reserve Bank's operating budget for the coming year has been slashed by about 25 per cent. In a statement released yesterday, RBNZ board chair Neil Quigley said the organisation will need to look closely at capital and operational expenditure, as well as spend on personnel. Finance Minister Nicola Willis spoke to Corin Dann.

Reserve Bank economist Paul Conway believes there's one upside to the tariff turmoil for Kiwis. Conway suspects the tariffs will likely lead to lower inflation in New Zealand, which will also lead to lower interest rates. Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen unpacked the announcement - and explained the ins and outs of the Reserve Bank's new Kiwi-GDP tool. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Equities began the week with strength after the tariff reprieve for smartphones, though Trump's walk-back on this capped gains.Trump said there were no exceptions announced on Friday; Lutnick said semiconductor-tariffs in a month & pharma-tariffs in a month or two.DXY remained below the 100 mark, EUR/USD briefly surpassed 1.14 & Cable briefly surpassed 1.31.USTs attempted to nurse recent pressure but the constructive tone capped, Trump said the bond market is going good.Crude rangebound despite the tone as constructive US-Iran talks and remarks from Energy Sec. Wright offset this.Fed's Collins said they are likely moving to a period of difficult tradeoffs, and "we're not seeing liquidity concerns overall", via WSJ.Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed SCE. Speakers include RBNZ's Conway, Fed's Waller & Harker. Earnings from Goldman Sachs & LVMH.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump's administration exempted items from reciprocal tariffs including smartphones, storage devices and some other electronics.However, Trump posted on Sunday that there was no tariff exception announced on Friday and that these products are subject to the existing 20% fentanyl tariffs and are just moving to a different tariff bucket.European bourses open higher as markets digest exemptions on smartphones/electronics; US futures also gain.DXY on the backfoot once again and G10s broadly supported with newsflow on the quiet end.Bonds diverge once again but are contained with specifics light thus far; USTs a little firmer whilst Bunds dip.Crude contained, gold wanes, base metals supported given the positive risk tone.Looking ahead, US NY Fed SCE, Speakers including RBNZ's Conway, Fed's Waller & Harker, Earnings from Goldman Sachs & LVMH.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Reserve Bank has dropped the OCR by another 25 basis points this week, putting it at 3.50%. Many homeowners would have rushed to refix or float while waiting for the announcement in December, but at what point is it worth breaking your mortgage for a lower rate? LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs alongside the 104% levy on China came into effect; US President Trump said China is manipulating its currency in offset against tariffs, and added the US will be announcing tariffs on pharmaceuticals soon.Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) was somewhat cushioned following recent stabilisation measures and expected policy support; E-mini S&P futures fell (-2.2%); markets await China's response.10yr UST futures notably slumped amid a surge in yields due to trade war concerns and after a weak 3yr auction stateside.RBI and RBNZ both cut their respective rates by 25bps as expected - both central banks flagged trade uncertainty; Japan's BoJ, MOF, FSA hold meeting to discuss international financial markets at 08:00BST.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 futures down 4.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.5% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Wholesale Sales, FOMC Minutes, Trump Executive Orders, Speakers including BoJ's Ueda, ECB's Knot, Cipollone & Fed's Barkin, Supply from UK & US, Earnings from Delta & Constellation Brands.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Rabobank’s Senior Strategist discusses the latest on the USA tariffs and the upcoming RBNZ decision on the OCR on April 9.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank appears to have caved to pressure with its decision to review its capital requirements. The central bank introduced stricter rules in 2019, requiring banks to hold capital to buffer them against a 1-in-200-year financial crisis. The rules have been criticised for driving up lending costs. Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking there's been a clear appetite for change. He says the Reserve Bank has "read the tea leaves", including criticism it's faced from banks, businesses, and Finance Minister Nicola Willis herself. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ex-politician Rodney Hide is fighting a battle. It began a couple of years ago, and it continues today. It involves the 'Relationship and Sexuality Education Curriculum' being taught in his daughter's school. It's actually taught in all schools. Rodney is not the only parent unhappy about what's being taught, but he stands almost alone in trying to address it. To him it is a matter of principle. But we also discuss other matters- the RBNZ and Adrian Orr, Luxon and the National party, economic growth, and more. And we wind up in The Mailroom with Mrs Producer. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

APAC stocks began the week mixed amid tariff-related concerns and as participants digested the softer-than-expected Chinese inflation data.US House Republicans unveiled a stopgap funding bill to keep the government funded through September 30th.US President Trump said on Friday regarding Canada that he may do reciprocal tariffs as early as Friday or Monday; added the EU has been a terrible abuser.European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.7% after the cash market closed lower by 0.9% on Friday.DXY is a touch firmer, EUR/USD remains on a 1.08 handle, JPY is the marginal outperformer across the majors.Leaders of Germany's CDU/CSU and SPD said they have completed preliminary talks on forming a coalition government.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production & Trade Balance, EU Sentix Index, US Employment Trends, NY Fed SCE, Chinese M2 Money Supply, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, RBNZ's Hawkesby.US clocks moved forward by an hour to Daylight Saving Time, meaning there is now just a four-hour time difference between London and New York for the next three weeks.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The last central bank finally gives in to reality, joining the rate cutting cycle in one final blow to higher for longer. This brings RBA closer to its neighbor RBNZ even though, on the surface, the two seem far apart in every respect. For all this alleged differences, however, the dollar has drastically other ideas which is why dollar for dollar for dollar, they're all the same globally synchronized. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Australia's central bank cuts rates for the first time in more than four years, flags economic uncertaintieshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/18/australia-central-bank-cuts-interest-rate-for-the-first-time-in-over-four-years.htmlBloomberg ECB's Panetta Says Economic Weakness Is Worse Than Expectedhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-19/ecb-s-panetta-says-economic-weakness-is-worse-than-expectedBloomberg New Zealand to Slow Pace of Easing After Third Big Rate Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-19/new-zealand-delivers-third-big-rate-cut-to-revive-ailing-economyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

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