Podcasts about rbnz

Join Senior Animal Protein Analyst Jen Corkran and Senior Market Strategist Ben Picton as they discuss the May Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting and the New Zealand budget. They unpack what happened at the RBNZ meeting, how the economy is performing, what is happening with the budget balance, and what it all might mean for the official cash rate and term interest rates.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The tide has officially turned for mortgage interest rates. Following the Reserve Bank's razor-edge split decision to hold the OCR last week, borrowers are hitting a major structural shift. An estimated 40% of all New Zealand mortgage debt is exposed to repricing in the next six months alone - shifting from a mindset of two years of falling rates straight into a rising rate wall.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse the macroeconomic consequences of this lag in monetary policy. We break down the newly updated Cotality Sales Volume Forecast Model, which officially strips 10,000 transactions out of our original 2026 projections.Plus, we dissect the internal vs. external board divide at the RBNZ, unpack the Government's council "consent bonus" budget initiative, and preview Thursday's upcoming May Home Value Index (HVI) results.This week we discuss:The Repricing Shock: Why 31% of fixed debt and 10% of floating debt are running directly into higher rates over the next six months.The 2-Year Fix Pivot: Why the mathematical reality of moving from a short-term fix to a 2-year runway means a 0.3% to 0.4% immediate lift in debt-servicing costs.Slashing the 2026 Model: Recalibrating the official housing metrics down to a flat 90,000 transaction ceiling for this year, with a potential slide below 90k in 2027.The Internal vs. External Divide: Analysing Cam Bagrie's take on why external MPC members are voting for rate hikes while internal RBNZ staff cling to optimistic GDP models.April Mortgage Lending Slowdown: Dissecting the $8 billion lending block and why bank switching and aggressive cashback windows are shutting.Council "Consent Bonuses": Reviewing the Government's infrastructure financial incentives for councils hitting high density targets.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

The text of the possible memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has not been finalised and confirmed to this point, according to Tasnim.A Romanian radio station reported that a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, near the border with Ukraine.The EU is to discuss restrictions on Chinese imports, although no decision was expected on Friday.Crude benchmarks are currently trading towards lows; Brent Aug'26 -1.6%.European bourses are broadly firmer this morning, whilst US equity futures are contained; Dell +37% post-earnings.DXY gains slightly, whilst the Kiwi outperforms after hawkish speak from RBNZ officials.Looking ahead, highlights include German Nationwide CPI (May), Canadian GDP (Q1). Speakers include Fed's Schmid, Bowman, Paulson & Daly. Credit Rating updates include S&P on France & Hungary, Morningstar DBRS on Spain.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The New Zealand Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold the OCR at 2.25 percent. Interestingly the decision was a split vote between holding and hiking. Governor Breman who is Chair of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on-hold vote was the tiebreaker, separating the views of external members and banks staff. The three external … Continue reading "RBNZ Hawkish Rate Hold Spells Higher Rates Ahead… But…"

Headline news for May 28, 2026: US launches new strikes on an Iranian military site, complicating an already uncertain US-Iran draft framework deal. The RBNZ holds rates steady as New Zealand reveals its’ budget today. More discounts on groceries for lower-income Singaporeans. Synopsis: A round up of global headlines to start your day by The Business Times. Written by: Nicole Teo (nicolet@sph.com.sg) Produced and edited by: Claressa Monteiro or Howie Lim Produced by: BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media Produced with AI text-to-speech capabilities --- Follow Lens On Daily and rate us on: Channel: bt.sg/btlenson Amazon: bt.sg/lensam Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/lensap Spotify: bt.sg/lenssp YouTube Music: bt.sg/lensyt Website: bt.sg/lenson Feedback to: btpodcasts@sph.com.sg Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Mark To Market at: bt.sg/btmark2mkt WealthBT at: bt.sg/btpropertybt PropertyBT at: bt.sg/btmktfocus BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks BT Market Focus at: bt.sg/btmktfocus BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/podcasts BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So what would you rather? A little bit of pain now or a whole lot more later? The Reserve Bank yesterday opted to keep the official cash rate at 2.25%, but the decision to hold was a close-run thing. And we know that now because of the transparency around the decisions being made and a jolly good thing it is too. Governor Dr. Anna Breman had to use her casting vote. The Monetary Policy Committee was evenly split on whether to raise the rate. The three Reserve Bank officials wanted to hold, the external committee members wanted to hike and therefore Governor Breman had to use her casting vote. One of the external committee members, economic consultant Carl Hansen, has given an interview with the Newsroom website explaining why he wanted to shift the rate now. He and the other two external committee members argued it would limit the overall magnitude of the increase in the OCR when it settles at the top of the imminent hiking phase. Translated, that means a bit of pain now is better than a whole lot later. Dr. Breman signalled that a rates rise is very likely when the committee next meets, but how high remains to be seen. And if it starts going up around about July, around about October, which is when the committee meets again, it's not just going to be mortgage holders who feel the pain, the Government will feel the pain too. They don't want to be associated with increased mortgage payments, but that's precisely what will happen. Carl Hansen argues that moving the OCR up a notch now, as in yesterday, would mean rates then wouldn't have to be yanked higher up further down the track. He says the uncertain environment in which we're living and in which we're making decisions won't disappear quickly and he and the other external members felt by going up 2.5% it would be an easier decision to either hold or go up in July. So if the experts don't know, how the hell do we? You've got six people whose job it is to understand the economy, to read the tea leaves and say, okay, this is what we think's going to happen in 18 months to two years and here are the decisions that we're going to make that we best we feel will best support the economy, the environment, the living conditions. It's going to help keep inflation in check, it's not going to stifle growth, this is what we believe. But if they're divided, it just shows how precarious and uncertain the times in which we live are. I like knowing that it was a 50/50 call and I can understand both sides. I can understand what the external committee members are saying, if we increase it just a teeny tiny bit now, it's not it shouldn't dampen spending, it shouldn't dampen growth and then it won't be such a shock if we do have to yank rates up further down the line. But I can also understand where the Reserve Bank officials are coming from too, it's just too uncertain. We don't know, it might fix itself. Although even in saying that, I feel like my extra 15 kilos might just drop off too. You know, hope is not a strategy – it's just a reckon. When you've got an election coming up and when you've got an election where nobody's willing to call how it's going to go, whether we go with a National/ACT/New Zealand First coalition or a Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori/independent/whoever they can cobble together coalition, it's too close to call from the polls. So there's uncertainty. If you're in business, you're unlikely, I would imagine, to be investing in extra staff, in capital expenditure, you're not going to be going gangbusters while there's uncertainty. So I get I can totally understand both sides of the coin when it comes to the decision made yesterday. Do you think the call was right? Do you think the Governor was correct in using her casting vote to keep things as they are and that things might come right? That the uncertainty – actually the only thing that is certain is that there will be uncertainty, I think. I cannot see it rectifying itself anytime soon. But was the right call made in holding things steady with an election coming up where nobody's certain what the result is going to be? Is this a time where businesses are just holding tight, keeping steady, not making big investments, not making big decisions, taihoa, wait and see. I'd love to hear from those of you in business, I'd love to hear from those of you with a passing interest in economics and I love being able to see the decisions now. I think it's I think it makes it really interesting. I like the transparency. I am so glad. I don't know. I mean, Governor Breman just seems to be a steady, cool hand which is what we need right now, not some flamboyant rockstar rocking and rolling through the economy because we are still suffering. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this special reaction episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest RBNZ OCR decision. The rate was held, but only just. The vote was split 3–3, with the Governor casting the deciding vote. This highlights how finely balanced the outlook is.The key message is that rate rises are likely coming. The OCR track has been revised higher. An increase as soon as July now looks probable. Some committee members wanted to hike now. Their view was to act early to limit future inflation risks.Inflation forecasts have been lifted. Headline inflation is expected to rise above 4% in the near term. This is driven by fuel and import costs. Core inflation is easing, however, and longer-term expectations remain stable. This creates uncertainty around how aggressive the RBNZ needs to be.Growth has been downgraded. The recovery is expected to be slower. Unemployment is set to stay elevated for the next 12–18 months.The housing market outlook is weak. House prices are expected to be flat or slightly down. Sales volumes also look subdued. Mortgage rates may rise further, although much has already been priced in.Overall, the OCR is on hold for now. But the balance has shifted. Future increases look increasingly likely.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us Fan MailMarkets are mostly optimistic about a US-Iran deal; bond yields drop while dollar slips. Oil prices remain sticky despite Monday's decline; both gold and bitcoin trend lower. Rate hikes have become the central scenario for the ECB, the RBNZ and the BoJ. Dollar/yen refuses to drop; are Japanese officials postponing another intervention? Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says the window for low mortgage rates has closed, with multiple Official Cash Rate hikes expected later this year following the Reserve Bank's decision to hold the rate at 2.25% yesterday. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement said Official Cash Rate (OCR) increases would likely be required this year, predicting inflation would peak at 4.3% in the September quarter before returning to 2% mid-2027. Tuffley told Ryan Bridge people had been fixing their mortgages at higher interest rates since it became clear that there would be no further cuts to the OCR and it would soon start increasing. The Monetary Policy Committee was predicting the average interest rate on outstanding mortgages would climb to 5.3% over the next year, up from 4.9% in March. Tuffley said that increase was “not too dramatic” although the impacts would show up slowly. “Your window for a low mortgage ... really did slam shut late last year, and unfortunately we've already seen rates that have climbed to some degree and that will continue.” LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US Central Command spokesperson said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday, in which US forces hit targets, including missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines.Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East, while the IRGC affirm its right to respond to any ceasefire breach. Global bourses pare Monday's gains after renewed US strikes on Iranian sites, while Ferrari stalls following EV launch.DXY rangebound, Kiwi underperforms heading into RBNZ, Cable reverses from 1.35 while EUR firmer as Schnabel sees a June hike. Fixed income benchmarks hold a negative bias amid higher energy prices, as US strikes Iranian sites in "self-defence."Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Consumer Confidence (May), NBH Policy Announcement (May), Speakers include ECB's Sleijpen, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of an apparent agreement to wind back the crisis levels in the Persian Gulf. But details are not available. One thing is clear however, the US will be in a significantly worse position than if the Obama deal with Iran had not been torn up by Trump. Follow up statements by Trump that "It isn't even fully negotiated yet" suggest things aren't quite as close as he earlier suggested. And the headline news that one "Supertanker With Iraq Crude Exits Persian Gulf as Talks Continue" highlights how little progress has actually been made. But locally this week will be dominated by two big set piece announcements. First, the RBNZ will review its monetary policy settings and while no-one expects them to change, all eyes will on how they view the current inflation pressures. Markets have a +25 bps hike priced in for July 8. Following that, the Government will deliver its election Budget. It will likely be all "jam today" but couched as 'responsible restraint'. Credit rating agencies will be interested readers, especially around the credibility of the forecasting. And on Friday, there will be the usual month-end data released for April, plus a mountain of March quarter data released. And the RBNZ's Dashboard will also drop on Friday. In Australia, we will get the April CPI data on Wednesday, and the household spending update on Thursday, both expected to be elevated. It will be a busy week in Japan where we will get industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence, and the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea will also decide on monetary policy. Data from China will be relatively light, but we will be interested in their FDI update. We should note that this will be a long weekend holiday in the US, Memorial Day, and their unofficial start of 'summer'. For the record, tradition states that investors should "sell in May and go away" until the end of this period on their Labor Day (September 7). This 'rule' is a warning that their summer financial markets can be volatile. Wall Street will re-open on Wednesday, NZT. Data from the US this week will limited, although PCE data, and the weekly ADP Employment update will be watched closely. As will the durable goods order data. Over the weekend the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a record low in May, revised down sharply from the earlier and preliminary report. This is the third straight monthly decline. Petrol prices are getting the blame and it's cause, the chaotic Middle East adventure. The cost of living remained the top concern in this survey, with 57% of consumers spontaneously citing high prices as eroding their personal finances. Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees posted the steepest declines, as these groups are more sensitive to rising gas and essentials costs. Critically, consumers grew increasingly worried that inflation would spread beyond fuel prices in the long term. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.8% from 4.7%, while long-run expectations climbed to 3.9% from 3.5%. Things may not get easier, even with slightly lower oil prices. Fed governor Waller said he supports removing the "easing bias" language from the Fed's outlook, and the next change could be a hike, even if it is some way off. He followed that up with remarks that it would be "crazy" to lower rates at this time. investors are bullish that the Iran-US war will end soon, but consumers are very negative about how all this is hurting them. Profits are remaining high, insulated from the rising costs, but household living costs are making consumers very grumpy. In Canada, and for a fourth month in a row, retail sales rose in April, but largely because petrol prices are higher. And that is even after the volume of petrol sales fell. In fact, overall sales volumes are trending lower. Canadian producer prices rose a sharp +2.0% in April from March, to be an uncomfortable +11.4% higher than year-ago levels. These changes are worse than expected. Despite all the global pressure their business are under, Japanese consumers avoided the impacts in April. Their inflation edged down to 1.4% from 1.5% in March. Food prices rose the least in 18 months amid a further slowdown in rice costs. After falling sharply in April, South Korean consumer sentiment rebounded in May, although not quite back to levels it was between June 2025 and March 2026. Still, this new level is above every month from December 2021 to May 2025 and was a much stronger bounce-back than was anticipated. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, up +2 bps from this time Saturday. The price of gold will start today down -US$6 at US$4509/oz to be down -US$42 for the week. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$75.50/oz. Oil prices have firmed +50 USc to just on US$97/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up at just on US$104/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from Saturday at this time at 58.5 USc and up +10 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are holding at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62 which is down -10 bps from Saturday, up +10 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,601 and very little-changed, down just -0.1% from this time Saturday, but down -3.2% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

This week, after a sharp rise in global bond yields, we await key inflation data in the US and Euro area, and discuss the fallout in Asia. We preview US core PCE and Euro area inflation, discuss a change in our Fed forecasts, and update on UK politics. In Asia, we preview decisions by the BOK and RBNZ, as well as core inflation in Singapore. And, in a special segment, Albert Leung, our Head of Asia rates strategy, discusses rising global bond yields and opportunities in Asia. Chapters: US: 2:10; London: 11:02, Asia: 16:50; Special Market Segment: 23:51

Send us Fan MailAll eyes are on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE report, which could shift rate expectations and spark volatility across FX, stocks, and crypto. With US GDP, jobless claims, and the RBNZ decisions also on deck, markets face a wave of key catalysts. Moreover, geopolitical developments and the unfolding political drama in the United Kingdom, could further add to volatility and excitement across all asset classes.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Q1 2026 Pain and Gain Report is officially live, revealing the clear signals of a buyer's market. While 88% of property resellers still walked away with a gross profit, the share of properties selling at a loss has ticked up to 12% - driven heavily by short hold periods and a challenging apartment sector.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the stark reality of the 4-year median hold period for loss-makers compared to the 10-year safety net for profitable sales. We also look at the April Selected Price Indexes data, discuss Nick's onstage debate with Kiwibank's Jarrod Kerr regarding the necessity of a July OCR hike, and track the quiet turnaround in net migration figures.This week we discuss:Q1 Pain and Gain Report: Why gross profits have fallen from a peak of $440,000 down to a median of $285,000.The hold period reality: The mathematical proof that buying at the 2021 peak and selling in 2026 guarantees a tough result.Apartment vulnerability: Why 41% of apartments resold at a loss during the quarter.April price indexes: Understanding why domestic price segments are softening even as diesel and petrol spike.The July OCR debate: Nick outlines the demand destruction argument that suggests the RBNZ should hold fire.Migration & rents: Net migration climbs back to almost 25,000, adding steady structural demand to a highly volatile rental market.Investor anxiety: Anecdotal feedback from Auckland on interest deductibility and long-term cash flow fears.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

US President Trump said he has a plan on Iran and repeated that their proposal is unacceptable, while he added that the US blockade on Iran was part of military genius.US President Trump said the ceasefire is unbelievably weak and is on life support, but added that a diplomatic solution with Iran is still possible.US President Trump was reported to have met with his national security team on Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, Axios sources reported.The White House said US President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi on Thursday at 10:15 AM in Beijing (03:15BST/22:15EDT), and a banquet will be held at 18:00 on Thursday (11:00BST/06:00EDT).APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a negative open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.7%.Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP Final (Apr), ZEW (May), US Inflation (Apr), ADP Employment Change Weekly, EIA STEO (May), and EU Informal Meeting of Energy Ministers (May 12-13), Australian federal budget. Speakers include RBNZ's Bremen, BoC's Macklem, ECB's Elderson, Fed's Williams & Goolsbee. Supply from the Netherlands, UK, Germany & US. Earnings from JD com, Under Armour, Siemens Energy, Munich Re, Bayer & Vodafone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that the Strait of Hormuz is still essentially shut with Trump's war on Iran far from resolved. The claims of 'ceasefires' merely propaganda exercises. Rolling skirmishes mean no shipping can get insurance, despite offers of safe passage. No-one respects anyone in a region where trust has evaporated. Locally this week, the big data insights will come from the RBNZ's survey of inflation expectations on Wednesday, migration and travel activity data on Thursday, and a first look at inflation on Friday via Stats NZ's selected price tracking. We will also get the factory PMI on Friday. In Australia, the key events will be the Federal Budget on Tuesday preceded by the Commbank profit result. There will also be consumer and business sentiment surveys out this week. In the US, it will be all about their April CPI and PPI, along with updates for retail sales and industrial production In India, they will also release CPI data. From Japan look out for household spending and PPI data too, and machine tool order updates. In China, we are expecting April updates for CPI, PPI and new yuan loan data. Over the weekend, China released its April export data and it was strong. While the US is turning inward, China is seizing the opportunities of their mistake. China's exports rose +14% in April to a record high, picking up from March's +2.5% growth despite the disruptions from the Trump Gulf War. And China's imports surged +25% on the same year-on-year basis, a second straight monthly record and confirming resilient domestic demand. It is all very impressive. China's exports to us were up only +3.8% from a year ago, but their imports from us were up +14.5. China's exports to Australia were up +36% and their imports were up +20%, but that still left Australia with a very large surplus with China. China's exports to the US were down -10.4%, and their imports down a similar -10.2%. They seem to have reduced their reliance on goods from the US to now just 9.8% of their total imports. No wonder US exports are faltering. Over the weekend, the official data from the US showed they added +115,000 payroll jobs in April at the headline level, above expectations of a +62,000 gain and following a +185,000 increase in March. It was the first back-to-back monthly gain in nearly a year, and on an 'actual' payroll basis it was stronger again. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%. But we should remember that all this data comes from an agency where Trump fired its head because he didn't like the results and this latest data is under the 'new management'. An independent professional review has confirmed there are distortions growing from this agency. Employment rose in health care, logistics, and in the retail trade while it fell in the manufacturing and government sectors. But if you include those not in payroll employment (self-employed etc.) there was no change on an 'actual' basis, a fall of -226,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Their underclass is really struggling. And you can see that in the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for May which fell again and to a record low. The fall from April wasn't large, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April's reading but it was comparable to the pandemic trough reached in June 2022. Year-ahead inflation expectations are for 4.5%, a touch less than in April. In Canada, their employment fell -18,000 in April, but more people entered their job market, raising their jobless rate to 6.9%. In India, banks are lending freely, with loan growth up +16% from a year ago. For all its growth narrative, India's stock exchanges are reporting serious 2026 declines, unlike most other global markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.36%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -2 bps for the week.  The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4714/oz, up +US$114 for the week. Silver is little-changed at just under US$80.50/oz, up +US$4.50 for the week. American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$95.50/bbl, down -US$7 for the week, while the international Brent price is holding at just over US$101/bbl, down -US$7.50 for the week. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from Saturday, at this time at 59.7 USc, up +70 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9 which is up +10 bps from Saturday but up +40 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,392 and up +1.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however at just under +/- 0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Oil falls and stocks rise on hopes the Middle East conflict is nearing an end. New Zealand's jobless rate falls, in a sweet-spot release for the RBNZ. And higher inflation could see the Bank of Korea hike rates. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt says New Zealand's property market started the year a bit stronger than expected, before the Middle East conflict hit. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The April Home Value Index (HVI) results are in, and while the national median technically rose by a modest 0.1%, the broader picture is one of a flattening market. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson peel back the layers on the regional divide - why are Auckland and Wellington softening while Christchurch and Invercargill continue to climb?We also dive into a surprising dose of 'hopium' from the March economic data. With filled jobs up 0.3% and the NZ Activity Index (NZAC) hitting its fastest growth in over three years, we ask if the economy is showing more resilience than expected, or if these are simply lagging indicators of a pre-conflict world.This week, we discuss:April HVI results: The national median is up 0.1%, but regional variability is the real story.The regional divide: Why Auckland's supply pipeline and Wellington's 'vibe' shift are weighing on values compared to the farming-backed strength of the south.March economic resilience: Filled jobs grew by 0.3%, and the NZAC rose 3.2% - could Q1 GDP be stronger than the RBNZ expects?Labour market preview: Why we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4% this week.RBNZ watch: A preview of Wednesday's Financial Stability Review (FSR) and the ongoing quest for transparency.First home buyer report: A teaser for our upcoming release with Westpac, including surprising data on buyer ages.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it has now been 66 days since the Strait of Hormuz has been largely shut and the two combatants seem to have descended into stalemate (although the Iranian's seem to have attacked one cargo ship overnight, let others through). The result has been much higher fuel prices, fertiliser prices, and a settling in of inflationary pressure everywhere. These pressures are intense. This week will start out locally with the Barfoot results for April (today), followed by the March quarter jobs report (on Wednesday). The RBNZ will be reviewing financial stability on Wednesday as well. In Australia, it will be all about the Tuesday afternoon decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, where a +25 bps hike seems likely (but is not certain). But inflation risks tied to the Iran conflict are building and they risk getting embedded. Also due out this week is data for building consents, job ads, household spending, and trade data. Trade data is also due from Taiwan and PMIs will come for many countries. Sweden and Norway will be reviewing their monetary policy settings this week too. American financial markets will be eyeing their labour market data, with their non-farm, payrolls report coming at the end of the week. There will also be important updates for their services sector, plus the preliminary May sentiment survey from the University of Michigan, also at the end of the week. At the end of last week, there were two factory PMI surveys out for the US and both were positive. The ISM reported a modest expansion, unchanged from a month ago. But they also reported a rise in new orders even though export orders fell. And employment fell, and rather sharply. Prices rose sharply and at their fastest pace since the pandemic. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was even more positive, but they said it was driven by stockpiling amid rising prices and supply disruptions. New orders increased at the fastest pace in four years, despite an eleventh consecutive monthly decline in exports. On the price front, input cost inflation reached a ten-month high. If stockpiling and inventory builds are behind this American rise, while they lose global market share, this is not very sustainable. Stock building seems to be behind a sharp rise in Canadian factory activity too. Their PMI showed production, employment and purchasing all increased in April. But theirs also featured new export orders which rose solidly and at the fastest rate since the start of 2022. Across the Pacific, Japanese factories are reporting their fastest expansion in twelve years. It is no doubt welcome, but they are now having capacity problems affecting supply-chain performance. This April production data supports earlier official industrial production reports for March. And the Japanese yen strengthened suddenly and sharply on Friday, ending a long period of devaluation against the USD. The shift is likely due to Bank of Japan intervention which seems to have cost the US$35 bln to pull off. In China, China Southern Airlines has ordered 137 aircraft from Airbus said to be worth US$28 bln. This comes after China Eastern Airlines ordered 101 Airbus aircraft worth US$16 bln a month ago. It appears that China won't be offering Trump aircraft orders when Xi and he meets on May 14 in Beijing. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.38%, unchanged from this time Friday but up +7 bps for the week.  The price of gold will start today down -US$7 at US$4613/oz and down -US$103/oz for the week. Silver is down -US$1 at just on US$75/oz. American oil prices are down -50 USc at just on US$102/bbl, while the international Brent price is also down -50 USc, and now at US$108/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$94/bbl and US$105/bbl so the really big move up was in the US. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at this time at 59 USc, up +20 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is essentially unchanged from Saturday and up +10 bps from this time last week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,723 and up +0.3% from this time Saturday. It is up only +1.1% from a week ago however. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

We can thank the new Reserve Bank Governor for ending the week on a high note. New charter details were announced yesterday. Charters and Reserve Banks were once as dry as old dust but these days I think we have a new understanding of the importance of their role. Out of Covid and economic shambles has come more talk than ever about cash rates and inflation and debt and wasteful expenditure. The main change for me is the Monetary Policy votes will be made public, and not a moment too soon. They are already starting to hold press conferences after each decision. Some decisions are statements, some are reviews and, as such, carry different amounts of detail and information. But the idea that they front after each decision shouldn't be new. It should have always happened. Just what was it about the thinking at the lower end of the terrace in the capital that had them believing that simply putting out a statement was plenty. Why wouldn't they want questions? Why wouldn't they want to be held to account? Given everything is streamed these days you can watch it all. There's no need for a journalist to cut and paste a few so-called highlights to skew the narrative. Free and open and complete accountability should be welcomed, and this is overdue. But as for the vote, the same thinking applies. If you hold the power of a committee member and if you get a say in a mechanism as important as the country's cash rate, once again, what's your argument for remaining quiet? To keep it a secret? If the vote is 5-1, who is the one and why? What's wrong with an explanation? For example, there were four dissenting votes yesterday at the Fed. Let's hear about it. Knowledge is power and the fact we are only at this place in 2026 is a crime of sorts. A condescending attitude where they clearly thought we didn't need to know. So far new Governor Dr Anna Breman has introduced pressers, changed the charter and promised to at least partially look through the immediate inflationary impact of the war. So far, so impressive. I like the cut of her gib. Orr vs Breman? No contest. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Major changes are set to make future Official Cash Rate decisions far more transparent. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee will release details of who voted which way to the public if they're unable to come to consensus. Committee members are also encouraged to speak openly about monetary policy. Former Reserve Bank Special Advisor Geof Mortlock told Mike Hosking that he and other economists have been advising Treasury and the Minister to move in this direction for some time. He says it'll strengthen the accountability and transparency of the Committee. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Q1 2026 CPI data is finally in, landing at a ho-hum 3.1%. While it's technically above the target band, the market has already moved on to the next big question: exactly when will the RBNZ hold its nerve no longer and lift the OCR?This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the inflation stats and why July vs September is the current 50/50 bet for the first rate hike. We also dive into the latest Chart Pack data showing a soggy 4% year-on-year drop in sales volumes for the quarter, and respond to a listener request for a dedicated rural property market roundup.This week we discuss:Q1 CPI data: Why 3.1% was exactly what the market expected and why the calm before the storm remains the theme for the beginning of 2026.OCR timing: July or September? We look at the data gaps facing the Monetary Policy Committee in their upcoming meetings.Soggy sales volumes: Breaking down the 4% quarterly decline in transactions and what it says about buyer/seller capitulation.Lending rule speculation: Could the RBNZ use LVR or DTI settings as a relief valve while the OCR stays high?Rural roundup: A deep dive into agricultural debt, input costs vs output prices, and why farm sales might actually be looking up.Te Kaha stadium: Kelvin reports back from the opening Super Round at Christchurch's new world-class venue.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send Us A Message! Let us know what you think.Is the New Zealand housing market heading for a total crash, or are we just seeing a temporary hit to confidence? In Episode 10 of New Zealand Property Insights, Paul and Debbie Roberts tackle the latest Reserve Bank "hawkish" hold, a record spike in rental prices, and a shocking investigation into rogue landlord practices. In this episode, we cover:The RBNZ's Hawkish Hold: The Official Cash Rate remains at 2.25%, but the message is clear—if inflation doesn't drop to 2%, timely increases are coming. We discuss why ANZ is now predicting a 2% house price drop and what this means for your current equity. The Rental Market Crossroads: While national listings fell by 3.2% in March, some regions are hitting extreme pressure points. Average rents in the Central Otago Lakes district have hit a staggering record high of $903 a week. We also address why a record 26% of investors are considering the "exit door." Rogue Landlords & Compliance: We break down the high-profile investigation into a mother-and-son pair facing $30,000 in penalties for substandard rentals and failing to lodge bonds. Professional standards are no longer optional—they are a survival requirement in the 2026 market. Counter-Cyclical Strategy: When the masses hesitate, the "educated" investors find their best deals. Learn how to split your debt to avoid rate shocks and why "buying when others are scared" is still the fastest way to fund your retirement. 

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Wellington is drying out after a night of torrential rain, but the economic data remains heavy. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the March Buyer Classification data, which shows first-home buyers (FHBs) holding a record 27–28% of the market. We also look at the measured return of smaller investors and why movers are currently staying put.With the Q1 CPI inflation data due tomorrow, we analyse the latest monthly price indices that show a massive spike in fuel costs - including a 40% jump for diesel in March alone. We discuss what this "uncomfortable" inflation means for the RBNZ and the growing potential for the OCR to move sooner than expected.This week, we discuss:FHB record share: Why first-home buyers are thriving on low-deposit allowances and KiwiSaver.Investor comeback: The rise of the MPO 2s ('Mum and Dad' investors) as lower interest rates reduce weekly mortgage top-ups.The fuel spike: March data showing petrol up 20% and diesel surging over 40%.CPI preview: Why the market is creeping forward expectations for an OCR increase.Rental floor: Analysing jumpy rent data and whether we've reached the bottom.Sales volumes: Why 2026 has had a soggy and sluggish start for transactions.Monthly videoSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

US President Trump said he views the war as being very close to over, according to Fox.US President Trump said he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn't think it will be necessary, according to reports citing an ABC reporter on X.US Vice President JD Vance said they are negotiating with Iran and the ceasefire is holding, while he also stated Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal, and he feels good about where they are.US President Trump's full interview on Fox Business will be aired on April 15th at 06:00EDT/11:00BST.APAC stocks were mostly higher; European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1%Looking ahead, highlights include French HICP Final (Mar), EZ Industrial Production (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include Fed's Barr & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey, SNB's Schlegel, RBA's Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Hermes.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

AP reported that effort to extend the US-Iran ceasefire has made progress with mediators aiming to extend for at least another two weeks. Both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reported citing US officials. This move aims to pressure Iran while the US mulls the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.European bourses mixed, Luxury suffers on KER FP and RMS FP while ASML raises FY guidance; US equity futures flat with Morgan Stanley and BofA ahead. DXY muted, GBP/USD retreats from 1.36 with UK GDP later in the week.Global fixed benchmarks trade cautiously awaiting President Trump and central bank speakers.Commodities tread water in anticipation of a second US-Iran meeting.Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include US President Trump, Fed's Barr, Hammack & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Nagel & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey, Greene, SNB's Schlegel, RBA's Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Earnings from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US is reportedly eyeing a potential second round of in-person talks with Iran as the blockade takes hold, according to CNN.AP reported that the US and Iran could be headed toward a second round of talks, which could happen on Thursday.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.An IRGC spokesperson said that if the war continues, they will unveil capabilities that the enemy has no idea about, according to SNN.APAC stocks traded higher as risk sentiment was underpinned by hopes regarding US-Iran peace talks; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4%.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF Final (Mar), German Wholesale Prices (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Mar), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IEA OMR (Apr), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Supply from the Netherlands & Germany. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo, BMW & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Next round of talks between US and Iran could take place this week or early next week, according to the Iranian embassy official in Pakistan.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.Energy eases amid continued reports of further US-Iran talks.Global equities gain on positive risk tone; US banks ahead.DXY soften, Kiwi continues to outperform while JPY helped modestly by reports BoJ is to increase price forecast.Fixed benchmarks gain, heavy speaker slate ahead. Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the Q1 2026 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI). While cost growth remains relatively controlled at 1% for the quarter, building costs are now 30% higher than they were in March 2020. We discuss why this controlled growth might be short-lived as global supply chain disruptions and transport cost hikes begin to flow through the industry.We also analyse the latest RBNZ mortgage lending data, which reveals a massive shift in borrower behaviour. As the market prices in potential OCR hikes, New Zealanders are rapidly moving away from floating and short-term fixes in favour of two and three-year terms.This week, we discuss:CCCI results: Cost growth accelerated slightly to 1% in Q1 (3% annually), but remains below the long-term average of 4%.The level vs growth gap: Why build costs feel expensive despite lower inflation rates - levels are now 30% higher than pre- oandemic. Construction industry health: Dwelling consents have risen to an annual total of ~37,500, signalling a robust recovery despite regional differences.Mortgage lending trends: 55% of new lending is now fixed for longer than 12 months, with the two-year rate becoming the most popular choice at 31%.The OCR outlook: Why the market expects the RBNZ to act sooner than previously thought to combat "second round" inflation risks.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that this will be a double-sided ceasefire.Trump confirmed they received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate, while he stated that almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the US and Iran.Iran accepted Pakistan's two-week ceasefire proposal, with the ceasefire approved by the Supreme Leader, while Iran said negotiations with the US will be held in Islamabad to finalise details and that talks are to begin on Friday, April 10th and may be extended if both sides agree.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's statement, which was posted by Trump on Truth, stated that for a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed ForcesAPAC stocks rallied with markets euphoric and relieved after US President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire; European equity futures indicate a stellar open for the cash market with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up over 5%.Crude futures tumbled beneath the USD 100/bbl level, DXY was pressured; RBNZ maintained rates as expected but provided some hawkish-leaning rhetoric.Looking ahead, highlights include French Trade Balance (Feb), EZ Retail Sales (Feb), PPI (Feb), FOMC Minutes, Speakers including Fed's Daly, Waller & US President Trump, Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that this will be a double-sided ceasefire. Energy slumps, with Brent slipping below USD 95/bbl.Trump confirmed they received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate, while he stated that almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the US and Iran.Iranian Press SNN noted of a potential ceasefire violation, highlighting several explosions that occurred in Siri and Lavan islands.Iran's National Security Council said that within a few hours, if firing does not stop in southern Lebanon, the air and missile unit will bomb Tel AvivGlobal equities find comfort, airlines and miners highly benefit.USD hit, Kiwi outperforms amid RBNZ hike discussion.Bonds soar and the curve steepens, with central bank paring back hawkish bets. Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes, Speakers including Fed's Daly, Waller & US President Trump, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, but with inflation forecasts shifting to 4.2% for June, the wait and see period has a very clear focus on rising costs.In this special reactionary episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down today's Reserve Bank (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Review. While the decision to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% was widely expected, the focus has shifted to the Bank's updated inflation outlook and the impact of the newly announced two-week ceasefire in Iran.We discuss how the RBNZ is balancing the risk of a stuttering economy against the potential for rising wages and transport costs to keep inflation higher for longer. With the June quarter inflation forecast now sitting at 4.2%, we look at what this means for the timing of any future moves and the immediate outlook for mortgage holders.This week, we discuss:The OCR decision: Why the 2.25% hold was the only move for today.Ready to move: The RBNZ's signal that they won't hesitate to act if they see price increases becoming embedded.Revised inflation forecasts: Breaking down the shift from 2.7% to 4.2% for the June quarter.Interest rate strategy: Why the bottom for mortgage rates is likely behind us and what to consider when your fix comes up.The election year factor: Could the Government step in with fiscal support if the economy enters another recession?Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Thursday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) What Could Possibly Go Wrong?/We Just Can't Quit Fossils/Remember Zoom?/When Is an Emergency an Emergency?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Wednesday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Can the RBNZ Save Us?/We Definitely Don't Do Polls/There Is No Oil Shortage/Diesel, On the Other Hand.../Holidaying Here and ThereSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we look back at the effects already being felt across the global economy. In the US, we preview employment and inflation releases, and outline why we pushed back the timing of our Fed cut expectations. In Europe, we discuss the latest inflation data, how this shock differs from 2022, and the political response to recent developments. In Asia, we note that the shock is evolving into broader supply shortages, preview March CPI prints, and discuss rate decisions by RBI, BoK, and RBNZ. Chapters: US: 2:25; Europe: 8:44; Asia: 14:56

The problem with people like Paul Conway, who is the Chief Economist at the Reserve Bank, is they “know” some stuff. They sound good in a speech, but their record exposes them badly. Paul gave a speech this week to the National Financial Advisers conference. He talked about how expensive this country is, and he talked about our lack of productivity. If the speech had been a school project, he would probably have got a good mark. You couldn't argue with what he said. We aren't very efficient. Things like construction cost more here than anywhere in the OECD. We were once okay at productivity, but we aren't anymore and our real ability to buy stuff is going backwards. He noted before 2020 our purchasing power was growing faster than the OECD's. Now ask yourself a question – what happened in 2020 and post 2020? Covid of course. Covid was no one's fault (well, possibly the Chinese). But the response was the key and, in that response, as is well documented, we blew it. We blew it sky high and ended up with inflation north of 7%, some of which was over seen by Mr Conway and his mate Adrian Orr at the Reserve Bank. Paul argues inflation is critical given the cash rate helps anchor prices. Does it? He cites the prices that make us the most expensive place in the world: rates, power, and insurance. Did the cash rate do anything for those? No. Other prices he cited, like butter and lamb, are also expensive and expensive for obvious and well documented reasons. And, ironically, expensive for good reason for NZ Inc. Part of the issue is market size. It's why Walmart is successful. It has a population base of over 300 million. We don't. Supply of goods is cheaper per unit when you buy millions of them. We don't. The productivity question has been bounced around for years and never really been solved. Many people don't even agree what productivity is. Is it a robot replacing a human? Is it building a road faster? Is it inventing a thing that changes the world? Part of the reason the Reserve Bank blew Covid so badly is they write speeches like Conway's. They live in Wellington in small rooms theorising. The moment you give them a bit of real world, look what they do with it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An independent economist says it will be at least a few months before any deeper effects of the oil price hikes are felt in the local economy.

Keen for a qualified opinion from an economist who isn't an employee of one of the main NZ banks. I am! I think it's critical to understand the REAL impact of the oil shock coming our way to NZ, and how the RBNZ may be forced to respond. Inflation, recession, perhaps a bit of both, or something completely different? Enjoy.Special thanks to Andrew Hunt from Hunt Economics.Book in a free 15-min phone call with Darcy Ungaro (financial adviser).Sign up to the fortnightly newsletter!Thank You Swyftx: With over 1 million customers across New Zealand and Australia. Ask yourself …”Where can crypto take you?". Check out Swyftx.Provincia: Whether you're looking to invest, or you have a commercial property that needs better management - they the true one-stop shop for wholesale industrial investors. Check out Provincia.co.nz for more.Affiliate Links!The Bitcoin Adviser: Plan for intergenerational digital wealth.Hatch: For US markets.Revolut: For a new type of banking.Sharesies: For local, and international markets.Loan My Coins: Bitcoin lending product.Exodus: Get rewards on your first $2,500 of swapsOnline courses:Take the free, 5-part online course Crypto 101: Crypto with ConfidenceGet Social:Check out the most watched/downloaded episodes hereFollow on YouTube , Instagram, TikTok: @theeverydayinvestor, X (@UngaroDarcy), LinkedIn.www.radicalinvestment.co.nz________________________Disclaimer: Please act independently from any content provided in these episodes; it's not financial advice, because there's no accounting for your individual circumstances. Do your own research, and take a broad range of opinions into account. Ideally, engage a financial adviser / pay for advice!

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week's episode explores the sluggish start to 2026, where a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP result meets a growing sense of sales fatigue. Nick and Kelvin break down why the movers are the key to the next price cycle and how the Reserve Bank might navigate the worst-case scenario of stagflation.Is the New Zealand property market hitting a crescendo of sluggishness? Following a strong end to 2025, the first two months of 2026 have seen sales volumes dip by 7-8% year-on-year. In this episode, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on whether this is a temporary timing issue or the start of a more sustained slowdown.We also dive into the Q4 GDP undershoot (0.2% vs. the RBNZ's 0.5% forecast) and what it means for interest rate stability. Plus, we address direct listener feedback on the trap of using averages and why the movers in the market are currently paying a 2% premium over first-home buyers.This week, Nick and Kelvin discuss: The sales slump: Why January and February were softer than expected and why our 100k annual sales forecast might be dialed back.The mover premium: New research showing that second-and-third-home buyers are paying 2% more relative to CV than first-home buyers.GDP reality check: Why the Q4 undershoot provides a silver lining for those hoping for lower-for-longer interest rates.The Iran ripple effect: Exploring second-round inflation and why the Reserve Bank is in its absolute worst-case position.Rental market weakness: Why the stock measure of rents is at its lowest annual change in nearly 20 years.Averages vs. case studies: A response to listener Carl Horne on the limitations of median data.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Q4 Affordability Report is out, and the data shows a significant shift in the New Zealand housing market. After four years of adjustments, key measures of affordability are returning to long-term averages - but as geopolitical tensions rise, will this recovery be cut short?This week, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on how to interpret these "normalising" figures and what the latest migration turnaround means for rental demand. They also tackle the uncomfortable economic ripple effects of the ongoing Middle East conflict and what it might mean for the Reserve Bank's next move.In this episode, Nick and Kelvin discuss:The affordability reset: Why mortgage payments as a proportion of income have finally hit the 20-year average.Regional winners: Auckland and Wellington's surprising status as "below average" for debt servicing costs.The rental challenge: Why renters are still facing a "28% burden" and how new migration arrivals could add pressure.Migration momentum: Analysing the net gain of 23,000 and the easing of departures.Geopolitical inflation vs. growth: The "petrol tax" on households and the risk of a medium-term recessionary impact.RBNZ watch: Is a November OCR hike now a "lock", and could it move even sooner?Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!A surprise 0.2% rise in national property values meets a shifting global landscape. Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse how geopolitical tensions could force the Reserve Bank's hand.In this episode, the research desk tackles the unexpected 0.2% rise in the February Home Value Index. While an upturn always starts somewhere, the significance of this month is its broad-based nature - with every main centre, including Auckland, seeing growth simultaneously for the first time in nearly a year. However, a new global uncertainty has arrived. We break down the domestic fallout from the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, including the immediate petrol price shock and how it acts as a direct tax on Kiwi households. We also discuss the flight to safety in financial markets and what a falling NZ dollar means for our inflation outlook.This week, we discuss:The February Index Surprise: Why growth in Auckland, Christchurch, and Dunedin suggests a new market phase. The Geopolitical Inflation Risk: How shipping costs and oil prices could impact the next OCR decision. The Exchange Rate Factor: Understanding the flight to safety and its impact on importing costs. Market Resilience: Analysing the 15% year-on-year rise in dwelling consents and the labour market trough. Affordability Preview: Key themes ahead of this Wednesday's full Q4 report release.  Links mentioned in the show:February HVIHousing Affordability Report (Available Wednesday 11 March 2026)Kelly Eckhold on Middle Eastern conflictSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

The Reserve Bank's emphasising the importance of cash services being free-of-charge. It's proposed requiring the banking sector to provide accessible full-cash services across the country - at $104 million a year. The plan ensures those in urban areas can walk to get cash, and the drive for those living rurally is reasonable. Money and Cash Director Ian Woolford says people don't expect to pay to deposit or withdraw cash. "Communities need easier access to cash, closer to home...what we've learned, partly, from those cash trials is that this is what communities need." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand won't be going cashless anytime soon under the Reserve Bank's new proposal. It wants to set up 1300 multi-bank hubs to provide full services free of charge. The plan ensures those in urban areas can walk to get cash - and the drive for those living rurally is reasonable. NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny explained further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

APAC stocks traded higher in continued thin conditions as many regional bourses remained closed for holidays.RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25%, as expected, and the central bank refrained from any hawkish surprises; NZD heavily underperforms.US VP Vance said in some ways Iran talks went well, while he added that Iranians are not yet willing to acknowledge some of President Trump's red lines.US Special Envoy Witkoff said the US facilitated the trilateral meeting between Ukraine and Russia, while he added that Ukraine and Russia agreed to update leaders and pursue an agreement.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.7% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI (Jan), US Durable Goods, Industrial Production (Jan), Housing Starts (Nov/Dec), Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Minutes (Jan), US-Ukraine-Russia talks to take place (17-18 Feb). Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, Schnabel & Fed's Bowman. Supply from Germany & US. Earnings from Analog, Carvana, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Moody's, Garmin, Glencore & Orange.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise, Axios reports citing sources; a military operation would likely be a massive, weeks long campaign that will be a joint US-Israeli attack. European equities entirely in the green, with IBEX leading the way; US equity futures continue to extend Tuesday's gains.DXY firmer, Kiwi hit post-RBNZ while Cable holds afloat following UK inflation.Gilts choppy post-CPI; USTs slightly lower ahead of FOMC minutes.WTI and Brent nurse prior day losses as Ukraine talks conclude; Metals rebound. Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Industrial Production (Jan), Housing Starts (Nov/Dec), Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Minutes (Jan). Speakers include ECB's Schnabel & Fed's Bowman. Supply from the US. Earnings from Analog, Carvana, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Moody's, Garmin & Orange.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Our new Reserve Bank Governor says she has full confidence in the people making OCR decisions. The Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Anna Breman, has decided to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25% for now. It says while inflation is above the target band, the economy still needs some time to recover. Breman told Mike Hosking the committee will make the best decisions it can, based on the data and forecasts it has access to at the time. She says something might look obvious in retrospect, but they're dealing with lots of global shocks constantly hitting the New Zealand economy. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank's kept the OCR unchanged at 2.25% and isn't forecasting any change until the end of the year. Governor Anna Breman says inflation should be back within target this quarter. She says the economy fundamentals are consistent with inflation falling to, and remaining at, 2% over the medium term. Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen told Mike Hosking the Governor is playing with a pretty straight bat. He says it's a tricky balance, as the economy doesn't quite feel like it has recovery momentum, and they don't want to cut that off at the knees by spooking anyone, but they do have to be focused on inflation. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The new Reserve Bank Governor will deliver her first Monetary Policy Statement today. The central bank's expected to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25%. It's likely to show when inflation should start easing, and when the economy should recover from last year's downturn. BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking today's announcement will likely see them swap out the mild easing bias the bank had in November and replace it with a mild tightening bias. He says they believe the Reserve Bank will probably want to signal a hike by around December this year. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The RBNZ's OCR decision lands Wednesday, 18 February, and it's expected to hold at 2.25%. The deeper truth? Australian banks (ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Westpac) dominate New Zealand's mortgage market, influence media and politics, and shape house prices and the economy at large. With fragile recovery signs amid persistent inflation, will their pursuit of wider margins on “safe” lending tip us toward Japanese-style housing stagnation? Rupert Carlyon of kōura Wealth joins to discuss.Book in a free 15-min phone call with Darcy Ungaro (financial adviser).Sign up to the fortnightly newsletter!Thank You Swyftx: With over 1 million customers across New Zealand and Australia. Ask yourself …”Where can crypto take you?". Check out Swyftx.Provincia: Whether you're looking to invest, or you have a commercial property that needs better management - they the true one-stop shop for wholesale industrial investors. Check out Provincia.co.nz for more.Affiliate Links!The Bitcoin Adviser: Plan for intergenerational digital wealth.Hatch: For US markets.Revolut: For a new type of banking.Sharesies: For local, and international markets.Loan My Coins: Bitcoin lending product.Exodus: Get rewards on your first $2,500 of swapsOnline courses:Take the free, 5-part online course Crypto 101: Crypto with ConfidenceGet Social:Check out the most watched/downloaded episodes hereFollow on YouTube , Instagram, TikTok: @theeverydayinvestor, X (@UngaroDarcy), LinkedIn.www.radicalinvestment.co.nz________________________Disclaimer: Please act independently from any content provided in these episodes; it's not financial advice, because there's no accounting for your individual circumstances. Do your own research, and take a broad range of opinions into account. Ideally, engage a financial adviser / pay for advice!

This week, we discuss US labor markets and preview US core PCE, UK CPI and other key data in Europe. In Japan Post-election policies are in focus while RBNZ, BI and BSP decisions are on tap. In a special segment, we feature two anchor reports by our APAC rates strategists and their views on the outlook. Chapters: US: 2:36; Europe: 10:17; Japan: 15:38; Asia Rates Special: 20:40