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The Reserve Bank's emphasising the importance of cash services being free-of-charge. It's proposed requiring the banking sector to provide accessible full-cash services across the country - at $104 million a year. The plan ensures those in urban areas can walk to get cash, and the drive for those living rurally is reasonable. Money and Cash Director Ian Woolford says people don't expect to pay to deposit or withdraw cash. "Communities need easier access to cash, closer to home...what we've learned, partly, from those cash trials is that this is what communities need." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand won't be going cashless anytime soon under the Reserve Bank's new proposal. It wants to set up 1300 multi-bank hubs to provide full services free of charge. The plan ensures those in urban areas can walk to get cash - and the drive for those living rurally is reasonable. NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny explained further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank's emphasising the importance of cash services being free-of-charge. It's proposed requiring the banking sector to provide accessible full-cash services across the country - at $104 million a year. The plan ensures those in urban areas can walk to get cash, and the drive for those living rurally is reasonable. Money and Cash Director Ian Woolford says people don't expect to pay to deposit or withdraw cash. "Communities need easier access to cash, closer to home...what we've learned, partly, from those cash trials is that this is what communities need." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand won't be going cashless anytime soon under the Reserve Bank's new proposal. It wants to set up 1300 multi-bank hubs to provide full services free of charge. The plan ensures those in urban areas can walk to get cash - and the drive for those living rurally is reasonable. NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny explained further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

APAC stocks traded higher in continued thin conditions as many regional bourses remained closed for holidays.RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25%, as expected, and the central bank refrained from any hawkish surprises; NZD heavily underperforms.US VP Vance said in some ways Iran talks went well, while he added that Iranians are not yet willing to acknowledge some of President Trump's red lines.US Special Envoy Witkoff said the US facilitated the trilateral meeting between Ukraine and Russia, while he added that Ukraine and Russia agreed to update leaders and pursue an agreement.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.7% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI (Jan), US Durable Goods, Industrial Production (Jan), Housing Starts (Nov/Dec), Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Minutes (Jan), US-Ukraine-Russia talks to take place (17-18 Feb). Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, Schnabel & Fed's Bowman. Supply from Germany & US. Earnings from Analog, Carvana, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Moody's, Garmin, Glencore & Orange.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise, Axios reports citing sources; a military operation would likely be a massive, weeks long campaign that will be a joint US-Israeli attack. European equities entirely in the green, with IBEX leading the way; US equity futures continue to extend Tuesday's gains.DXY firmer, Kiwi hit post-RBNZ while Cable holds afloat following UK inflation.Gilts choppy post-CPI; USTs slightly lower ahead of FOMC minutes.WTI and Brent nurse prior day losses as Ukraine talks conclude; Metals rebound. Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Industrial Production (Jan), Housing Starts (Nov/Dec), Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Minutes (Jan). Speakers include ECB's Schnabel & Fed's Bowman. Supply from the US. Earnings from Analog, Carvana, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Moody's, Garmin & Orange.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Our new Reserve Bank Governor says she has full confidence in the people making OCR decisions. The Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Anna Breman, has decided to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25% for now. It says while inflation is above the target band, the economy still needs some time to recover. Breman told Mike Hosking the committee will make the best decisions it can, based on the data and forecasts it has access to at the time. She says something might look obvious in retrospect, but they're dealing with lots of global shocks constantly hitting the New Zealand economy. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank's kept the OCR unchanged at 2.25% and isn't forecasting any change until the end of the year. Governor Anna Breman says inflation should be back within target this quarter. She says the economy fundamentals are consistent with inflation falling to, and remaining at, 2% over the medium term. Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen told Mike Hosking the Governor is playing with a pretty straight bat. He says it's a tricky balance, as the economy doesn't quite feel like it has recovery momentum, and they don't want to cut that off at the knees by spooking anyone, but they do have to be focused on inflation. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank says inflation's too high, but it's actually worried it could soon end up too low. It's kept the OCR unchanged at 2.25 percent. New Governor Anna Breman says they're not happy with headline inflation surpassing the one-to-three percent target band last quarter. But she says underlying core-inflation is much lower, and wage growth slow. She explained that unless the economy rebounds, they think inflation might actually fall below the target. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds and forecasts a rate hike this year, just not as early as markets expected. The Kiwi dollar falls over 1%. Australian wages continue growing strongly. And the Bank of England is set to cut rates from March. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga examines Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's view that an AI productivity surge will allow for faster growth with lower rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank says inflation's too high, but it's actually worried it could soon end up too low. It's kept the OCR unchanged at 2.25 percent. New Governor Anna Breman says they're not happy with headline inflation surpassing the one-to-three percent target band last quarter. But she says underlying core-inflation is much lower, and wage growth slow. She explained that unless the economy rebounds, they think inflation might actually fall below the target. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send a textFed minutes awaited as traders expect more than two Fed cuts this year. Yen slips, pound trades indecisively after CPIs, kiwi falls after RBNZ. Wall Street recovers on tech rebound, progress in US-Iran talks.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

The ASX 200 kicked higher again. Three days in a row, up 48 to 9007 (0.5%) despite CBA going ex-dividend. Record high back in sight. NAB was the standout today on Q1 results beating expectations, up 4.1%. The Big Bank Basket up to $304.05 (0.2%), financials kicked higher too, MQG up 0.6% and private health insurers roared ahead on government price changes. MPL up 6.0% and NHF up 5.0%. ZIP jumped 8.0% ahead of results, CGF also ran hard on results, up 8.3%. REITs firmed, GMG up 0.9% and SCG rising 1.3%. Industrials were firm too, QAN up 1.0%, TCL up 1.2% and ALL doing well up 2.3%. JBH fell back a little, healthcare still mixed, SIG down 1.0% and COH off 1.0%. In the tech space, some wins starting to hit the screens, TNE up 8.2% on guidance, XRO up 1.8% and HSN soared 16.4% on better-than-expected results.In resource land, BHP slid 0.9% as copper drifted lower, RIO up 1.3% and FMG up 0.5%. Gold miners eased back as bullion prices fell on Lunar New Year. GMD down 2.9% and NST dropped 0.7%. CSC had a shocker falling 14.0% on very disappointing results and guidance. Lithium stocks bubbled higher, LTR roaring ahead, up 6.2% with PLS up 2.3%. BSL rose 2.6% on an increased bid from SGH. STO fell 0.6% on another disappointment. Uranium stocks bounded ahead, PDN up 5.6% and DYL up 4.4%.In corporate news, SLC rose 18.2% on an acquisition and better than expected results. AFG rallied off lows after better numbers. Brokers are back. SUN fell 4.4% as profits fell short.In economic news, the RBNZ left rates unchanged. Locally, the wage price index rose 0.8% in the December quarter and 3.4% annually.US futures up. Dow Jones up 35 points, Nasdaq up 60.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Todayhttp://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus TodayUse code MTPODCAST for 10% offhttp://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF PortfolioA professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing.http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About InvestingA short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips.http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—DisclaimerThis podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

The new Reserve Bank Governor will deliver her first Monetary Policy Statement today. The central bank's expected to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25%. It's likely to show when inflation should start easing, and when the economy should recover from last year's downturn. BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking today's announcement will likely see them swap out the mild easing bias the bank had in November and replace it with a mild tightening bias. He says they believe the Reserve Bank will probably want to signal a hike by around December this year. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Japanese GDP is weak, but Thailand's economic growth beat forecasts. New Zealand's housing market is soft. And the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to hold its official cash rate tomorrow. In part two of our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, talks about China's exports, jobs, and the AI boom. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The RBNZ's OCR decision lands Wednesday, 18 February, and it's expected to hold at 2.25%. The deeper truth? Australian banks (ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Westpac) dominate New Zealand's mortgage market, influence media and politics, and shape house prices and the economy at large. With fragile recovery signs amid persistent inflation, will their pursuit of wider margins on “safe” lending tip us toward Japanese-style housing stagnation? Rupert Carlyon of kōura Wealth joins to discuss.Book in a free 15-min phone call with Darcy Ungaro (financial adviser).Sign up to the fortnightly newsletter!Thank You Swyftx: With over 1 million customers across New Zealand and Australia. Ask yourself …”Where can crypto take you?". Check out Swyftx.Provincia: Whether you're looking to invest, or you have a commercial property that needs better management - they the true one-stop shop for wholesale industrial investors. Check out Provincia.co.nz for more.Affiliate Links!The Bitcoin Adviser: Plan for intergenerational digital wealth.Hatch: For US markets.Revolut: For a new type of banking.Sharesies: For local, and international markets.Loan My Coins: Bitcoin lending product.Exodus: Get rewards on your first $2,500 of swapsOnline courses:Take the free, 5-part online course Crypto 101: Crypto with ConfidenceGet Social:Check out the most watched/downloaded episodes hereFollow on YouTube , Instagram, TikTok: @theeverydayinvestor, X (@UngaroDarcy), LinkedIn.www.radicalinvestment.co.nz________________________Disclaimer: Please act independently from any content provided in these episodes; it's not financial advice, because there's no accounting for your individual circumstances. Do your own research, and take a broad range of opinions into account. Ideally, engage a financial adviser / pay for advice!

A busy week looms, with the February Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) a clear highlight. The focus will be on the tone and how the Official Cash Rate (OCR) track differs from the November MPS. That had the first hike pencilled in for early 2027, although markets see it coming later this year. Will the RBNZ bring it forward to match?

This week, we discuss US labor markets and preview US core PCE, UK CPI and other key data in Europe. In Japan Post-election policies are in focus while RBNZ, BI and BSP decisions are on tap. In a special segment, we feature two anchor reports by our APAC rates strategists and their views on the outlook. Chapters: US: 2:36; Europe: 10:17; Japan: 15:38; Asia Rates Special: 20:40

The Finance Minister's rejecting an accusation it's using Covid as an election tactic. Nicola Willis announced an independent review this year of the monetary policy the Reserve Bank delivered during the pandemic. It'll be released just weeks before the election, and Labour's Chris Hipkins claims the Government's aiming to revive pandemic conspiracies. Willis told Mike Hosking she suspects it wouldn't have mattered what the timing is, the reaction would've been the same – their political opponents saying they shouldn't be asking these questions. But she says when the Reserve Bank did its own review, the results showed there hasn't been enough examination into their decisions. The Finance Minister is also insisting she's keeping an eye on the banking space as ASB reports higher margins. The bank saw modest growth in the second half of last year, reporting a net profit of $765 million. Its net interest margins ticked up six basis points to 2.35%. Willis says told Hosking more people are already looking for better banking deals, and she's working to improve competition. She says she's comparing our regime internationally, especially with the banks' Australian counterparts, and looking at whether we're getting our settings right. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A Government inquiry into the Reserve Bank's decisions through the Covid era could have come far sooner. The bank printed $55 billion worth of digital money, costing taxpayers more than $10 billion. The review's findings will be released just weeks before the election – a move that's cast speculation of an underlying political motive by the Finance Minister. Former Reserve Bank senior staffer Geof Mortlock told Mike Hosking the Government's taken too long to get on with it. He says he's been advocating for it, including to Nicola Willis, for at least two years, so it's well overdue. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Signs of fatigue - with another review of the country's Covid-19 response now in the works. Finance Minister Nicola Willis new inquiry looks at the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decisions - including printing 55 billion dollars. Findings are to be released just weeks before Election Day. Massey University business professor Claire Matthews says there's potentially some value in it - but the timing feels like an election ploy. She told Ryan Bridge we're also now six years past the start of Covid. Matthews says the Reserve Bank has also already done a review and taken lessons from it - so how much more are we going to learn. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Signs of fatigue with another review of the country's Covid-19 response now in the works. Finance Minister Nicola Willis new inquiry looks at the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decisions, including printing $55 billion. Findings are to be released just weeks before Election Day. Massey University business professor Claire Matthews says there's potentially some value in it, but the timing feels like an election ploy. She told Ryan Bridge we're also now six years past the start of Covid. Matthews says the Reserve Bank has also already done a review and taken lessons from it, so how much more are we going to learn. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government's announced an independent review of the fiscal response to the Covid pandemic. Finance Minister Nicola Willis says it will look at any lessons the country could learn to improve its monetary policy response to future events. It will probe decisions by the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee and advice it received – including the decision to print $55 billion in digital money during the pandemic. Graeme, a caller on Kerre Woodham Mornings, decided to break down exactly how the concept of “printing money” works, what impact it has on the market, and the impact it had during Covid. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I was having a good old debate with a mate at the weekend about interest rates. We're of the age where, mortgages are a thing. In Auckland, quote a bog and annoying thing. Paying them down is the aim of the game. Now this mate of mine knows a bit more about this stuff than I do and watches the markets closely. He's worried about the middle of the year - potentially this recovery if that's what we can official call it yet - coming to a bit a standstill/abrupt halt. We've spoken before about elections putting the kaibosh on growth. We've spoken about Bill English's comments about our recovery, unlike across the ditch, coming isn't spite of a rebound in house prices. In Australia, everything's how. The weather. House prices. Inflation. Growth. Employment. It's like they're on a different hemisphere to us. There was a good podcast talking about some of this, Of Interest, with a Westpac economist. The RBA'S rate is now 3.85%. Ours is 2.25%. It's been about 15 years since there's been such a big gap between the two. We usually cycle together most of the time but we have drifted apart to the point where one's so far over the hill, we can't see each other anymore. This is all by design, of course. We were way more aggressive. We engineered a recession to crash inflation. They went a loft softer to take into account employment. They have a duel mandate. The coalition got rid of ours. The Aussies are now upping rates again because their inflation is taking off again. Ours has a mild case of fever but nothing like there's at early 4%. The question anyone thinking about this stuff, with a mortgage is asking themselves, is this. Would you swallow a bit of inflation to have an economy that's actually firing? In other words, in future, would you rather this was handled the Aussie way? Or the Kiwi way? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send Us A Message! Let us know what you think.Is the property market recovering, or is there a sting in the tail?In this week's Week in Review, Debbie Roberts tackles the contradictory headlines facing Kiwi property buyers. We are seeing a classic tug-of-war: mortgage rates are dropping and first-home buyers are active, but unemployment has hit a 10-year high of 5.4% and the RBNZ is demanding tighter risk rules from banks.Key Topics Covered:Property Values: Why the market dipped in January and the outlook for 2026.Inflation & Rates: How falling interest rates are finally easing the cost of living.Investor Retreat: Why "lazy" investors are selling up, and why that creates opportunity.Jobs Data: Understanding the decade-high unemployment rate and the surprise job growth numbers.Lending Rules: The RBNZ's new warning to banks—will it get harder to borrow money?

​By Gareth VaughanThe Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to lift its cash rate 25 basis points this week means it's now 160 basis points higher than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official cash rate highlighting differing levels of assertiveness between the two central banks, Imre Speizer, Head of New Zealand Strategy at Westpac, says.The RBS's cash rate is now at 3.85% with the RBNZ's OCR at 2.25%. Speaking in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast, Speizer says it has been 13 or 14 years since there has been such a gap, with the two economies tending "to cycle together most of the time.""It comes down to a different central bank approach. The RBA has deliberately maintained a fairly dampened approach to tackling either low inflation or high inflation. So when it has needed to hike or cut, it has done [so] in a very cautious and drawn out manner. And by doing so it hasn't had to flip around as much as the likes of some other countries," says Speizer."The central bank of New Zealand has been pretty much an activist in terms of tackling inflation. So when inflation was high in the most recent cycle it went fairly hard and hiked rates a lot to bring it back down again, and that then amongst other things did help to engineer a brief recession.""It paid a cost to do so but it got inflation under control. Now we're basically coming out of that era and [economic] growth is starting to pick up. And so the Reserve Bank [of NZ] is now faced with the task of thinking well at what point do we need to start thinking about pushing rates up to prevent inflation from running away?""I guess it just means the assertiveness of the relative central banks is probably explained [in] why we've ended up with such big differences between New Zealand interest rates and say the Australian interest rate. In time that will rectify itself and will get back to something that looks a bit more normal, I.E. Kiwi rates a little bit higher than Aussie rates. But I think it's going to be some way down the track," Speizer says.He says lots of people are asking how the cash rate differential between New Zealand and Australia might play out with mortgage rates."There shouldn't be any direct impact if the cause of Australian rate rises is unique to Australia. But much of the time, there is a common global factor at play, so New Zealand rates do follow Australian and US term rates," Speizer says answering a follow-up question to the podcast interview."Also, if the strong Australian economy is seen as eventually benefitting New Zealand's economy, New Zealand term rates could rationally follow Australian rates higher in dampened fashion."In the podcast audio he also speaks about the direction of swap rates and what it means for mortgage rates, what the yield curve's suggesting at the moment, the outlook for NZ government bonds, the impact the volatility of US President Donald Trump's administration has on the US dollar and financial markets more broadly, incoming Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, the impact of US government shutdowns on economic data availability, geopolitics and more.​

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news gold and silver are currently experiencing the volatility we saw with bitcoin in 2024/25. Meanwhile, bitcoin is being dumped heavily today.Today starts with a series of unfortunate delays. The overnight dairy auction has concluded after an extended delay, but there is further delays in reporting the outcome. We will update this item when those results come through.And there are delays in some key US data due to the snap federal government shutdown. We expected to report the December JOLTs report today but it is in abeyance now. And the January non-farm payrolls report will get delayed as well for the same shutdown reason.But we did get US logistics data overnight, their LMI. This rose because first started building inventories in the way they did in January a year ago, but not excessively. Of note however is that inventory costs rose a sharp +8.4% this year, which will no doubt focus management minds.There was a secondary survey out overnight on economic optimism in the US and that was moderately positive. The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose to its highest since August and above expectations. But to be fair it is still below the 2025 average and -6% lower than its year-ago level. But at least it is off its November low.In Canada, their large aircraft manufacturing industry is holding its breath. The Trump FAA is withholding technical certification for new-built Canadian aircraft, waiting for the president to decide on the issue.There was an unusual and notable rise in consumer sentiment in Taiwan in January, to its highest level in nine months. It is back up to mid-2023 levels after a general decline that started in September 2024.And China warned Panama there would be "heavy prices" to pay after a court ruling in Panama annulled Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison's contract to operate two ports at the Panama Canal. This reaction will have relevance for the Darwin port issue, where a new 99 year lease owned by a Chinese firm is under threat of annulment too.In Germany, and despite solid demand holding up, investors there are expecting and getting higher risk premiums for their government 30 year bond. It yielded 3.55% today, its highest in 15 years. Its 10 year bond is almost at 2.90%, and also near its 2011 levels. Germany plans to raise more than €500 billion this year to fund infrastructure upgrades and for defence spending. But most other European countries are doing the same, and that is driving up yields.In Australia, and as expected, the RBA raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 3.85% and ending its shortish easing cycle. Most big banks there have already announced a full pass-through to their home loan and business lending rates. The RBNZ reviews its policy rate on February 18, 2026 but is not expected to make any changes to its 2.25% rate at that time.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.29%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today up +US$273 from yesterday at US$4980/oz. Silver is up +US$8 to US$US$86.50/oz. Some non-precious metals are bouncing back sharply too.American oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$62.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps against the USD from yesterday, now at 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 64.1, and up +30 bps from yesterday. And the Chinese yuan is at its strongest level against the US dollar since 2023.The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,990 and down -5.0% from this time yesterday, and falling. The last time it was this low was in mid November 2024. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

The Reserve Bank of Australia hikes the cash rate and its inflation forecasts, so the Australian dollar rises in response. New Zealand jobs data today is being watched closely by the RBNZ. Gold and silver prices surge again. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says Australia's housing market was starting to soften ahead of the RBA hiking rates, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news commodity and financial markets delivered some rather spectacular gyrations over the weekend, forcing investors to review how they are going to deal with the 'certainty of uncertainty' enveloping global markets.But first this week, our local coverage will be dominated by Wednesday's Q4-2025 labour market report. If it brings a notable improvement from the expected no-change 5.3% jobless rate, then the recent high inflation rate (3.1%) will get more of the RBNZ's attention at its February 18 meeting.Also this week, the RBA is meeting tomorrow to review Australia's monetary policy settings. A +25 bps change is now expected taking this rate to 3.85%, a sharp adjustment in sentiment following the strong December CPI data (3.8%).Elsewhere, important labour market data will come from the US at the end of the week via their January non-farm payrolls report. Markets expect a modest +70,000 job gain there, slightly better than the disappointing December +50,000 rise. Before that, there will be their JOLTs report, the ADP jobs report, and the layoff data for January. Then we get the first February consumer sentiment report, and it is expected to stay near its historic lows.There will be many more PMIs reported this week. And the EU will release its CPI data update, the ECB will review its policy rate. India will too. As will England.In Japan, they will release business sentiment survey results.But the week has already started in China, with dour official PMI survey results released. Their factory sector slipped back into contraction indicating their December expansion was a rogue result. Their services PMI also reverted to contraction as well, and they will be very disappointed. Neither was expected to reverse in January. The non-official PMIs will be released later today.Also over the weekend, Taiwan said its economy expanded at more than a +12% rate in Q4-2025 in a spectacular release, and their best quarter ever. That means all of 2025 was up +8.6%, even better than the outstanding 2025 gain of +5.3%. No wonder Beijing covets the neighbouring island nation.In Japan, they reported that its retail sales unexpectedly fell in December, although it did revise up its November retail sales results.In South Korea, the pandemic recovery excepted, their exports rose at a record +34% year-on-year rate in January to a massive US$66 bln. This is largely as a result of booming tech exports to China and the US. And it sets up 2026 with a great start, after 2025 exports also hit all-time records.Indian bank loan growth is still rising very fast indeed, up more than +13% year on year in its January 9, 2025 data released over the weekendIn the US, Trump said he will appoint Kevin Warsh from the conservative Hoover Institute and member of the billionaire Este Lauder family, to replace Powell when Powell's term ends in May 2026. The choice seemed to trigger the precious metals selloff. Trump once thought of appointing Warsh in 2017 but pulled back on doubts he would be compliant. Since then Warsh has become more MAGA.US producer prices rose +3.0% in December from the same month a year ago, defying expectations they would fall to +2.7%. Core data was up +3.3%, the fastest rise since July.Meanwhile in Chicago, the region's PMI made a spectacular recovery, one quite unexpected. New orders rose in this survey, employment surged. It is in complete contrast to the prior 25 consecutive months of decline. (However it will be worth waiting a month to know if this isn't just a rogue survey, one they have every two years or so. The last such unusual surge in November 2023 wasn't sustained.)In Europe, Eurozone economic activity rose +1.5% in 2025, up +1.6% in the wider EU, up from +0.9% in 2024 and better than the European Commission's projection of +1.3%. Resilient household consumption, lower borrowing costs and easing inflation, and a surge in exports to the US, all contributed to the better result. Germany and Italy were laggards, France about average, and Spain expanded at double the overall average.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -2 bps for the weekThe price of gold will start today little-changed from Saturday at US$4888/oz when the big crash happened. Silver is down to US$US$84.50/oz.American oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$65/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$69/bbl. From a week ago these prices are up +US$3.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps against the USD from Saturday, now at 60.3 USc. That is a weekly appreciation of +100 bps. From the start of the month it is up +300 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 86.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just over 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 63.9, and down -10 bps from Saturday, up +80 bps for the week, up +200 bps for the month, almost all because the USD devaluation in global markets.The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,404 and down a very sharp -6.8% from this time Saturday. That makes it down -18% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 0.8% with all the fall coming Saturday.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets now expect an Australian rate rise next week. But first today, the US Fed held its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%. This is what markets expected from them, despite the Trump pressure to cut sharply. The vote was 10-2 with the dissenters working to curry favour with Trump to get the nod as the next Fed chairman. The FOMC indicated that rates at this level could hold for some time while household inflation stress remains elevated. Inflation with no growth (other than AI) is a hard position to extract yourself from. They also have their eye on the labour market, with some large layoff announcements in the past few days. Both UPS (-30,000) and Amazon (-16,000) have announced big cuts, less about seasonal changes, more about 'efficiency'. They aren't the only ones pulling back. American mortgage applications fell last week as mortgage interest rates rose. Refinance activity fell more than -16%, while new home purchase mortgages were little-changed. This may not be a trend change, rather just a breather, because the prior three weeks rose notably. However, this metric is in a clear yoyo pattern. Canada's central bank also held its policy rate at 2.25% in its overnight decision. New bully threats from the US are keeping their growth outlook quite uncertain but they still see inflation holding at about 2% (currently 2.4%), and they still see an economic expansion at about +1.5%. India's industrial production accelerated in December, up +7.9% from the same month a year ago to end its full year up +4.1% from 2024. Factory production was up +8.1%, with the weak sector being mining. The December expansion was its sharpest since October 2023. In Australia, inflation was reported rising 3.8%, far above the November 3.4% and also above the expected 3.6% level. After the strong December labour market data released earlier in the month, this will put heavy pressure on the RBA to act to prevent inflation impulses and inflation expectations from requiring even tougher medicine in the future. Growth hotspots Brisbane and Perth both reported even higher inflation rates. Even Sydney reported 3.7% December inflation. The RBNZ will be looking at this evolving situation with some alarm, given that we too have above-target inflation, even without the growth pressures. Separately, the Chinese ambassador to Australia has said that Beijing will step in if Australian moves to regain control of the Darwin port that was leased to Chinese interests in 2015 on a 99-year lease basis. He said China “has the obligation to take measures” to protect their rights over the port. That may include trade retaliation, and more Chinese navy circumnavigations including live-fire exercises in the Tasman. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.26%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$5289/oz, up a sharp +US$202 from yesterday and a new record high. Silver is up +US$7 to US$114/oz, also a record. Platinum has recovered and now at US$2645, but not back to Monday's spectacular record. We should also note that the aluminium price has risen sharply overnight - again. It is now back approaching its pandemic-frenzy levels. American oil prices are up another +US$1 at just under US$63/bbl, while the international Brent price is also higher, now just under US$68/bbl. These are four month highs. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday, now at 60.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.8, and up +10 bps from yesterday, its highest since late September. The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,425 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at just under +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news we need to keep an eye on the 'Sell America' trade, which until now has been more headlines that substance and mainly about China's divestment in US Treasuries. But the Greenland kerfuffle has triggered a serious rethink by many pension fund managers, and more are taking this action.But first, the week ahead will be a relatively quiet one locally on the data front, but we will get a big range of December banking sector data, allowing us to cap the 2025 year on a number of important metrics. In Australia, the key event will be Wednesday's CPI data where it is expected to rise to 3.6%, the final indicator before next week's RBA rate review.Globally, all eyes will be on the gold price and its expected push up through US$5000/oz which could come early in the week.And in the US, all eyes will be on the Fed and its January 29 meeting, amid increasingly contrasting takes by voting members on the appropriate rate path. But most things related to public policy are in turmoil in the US, and the Fed's position is just part of that. We will be watching for bond market reactions.Elsewhere, official interest rate decisions are expected in Canada, Brazil, and Sweden, and the Bank of Japan will publish meeting minutes.An don't forget it is a holiday today in the north of the North Island (Auckland Anniversary Day), and in Australia (Australia Day),In the first news up today, China released its December FDI data overnight and it was negative again. For all of 2025 foreign direct investment fell -9.5%, following a sharp -24.7% fall in 2024 and that makes it the third consecutive year of contraction. December alone recorded a good pickup from November but even with that it was -7% lower than the December 2024 month. But at least it didn't shrink as it did in November from October.China also release minimum wage rate data that showed 27 of the country's 31 provincial jurisdictions have increased monthly minimum wages over the past year, with half introducing double-digit rises.In an interview with state media Xinhua, the Chinese central bank governor indicated that cuts to their interest rates and reserve ratio requirements are on the cards in 2026.Taiwan said industrial production surged more than +21% in December from the same month a year ago, the strongest growth since May. For all of 2025 it was up +16.7%, so the latest activity is an acceleration. But their local retail sector is not showing the same exuberance, up just +0.9% in December from a year ago but down -0.2% for all of 2025. Consumers there are prioritising saving over spending, just like in the country to their west.Japanese inflation eased to 2.1% in December from 2.9% in November, the lowest since March 2022. Food inflation fell to a 13-month low of +5.1%, driven by the slowest rise in rice prices in 16 months.The Japanese January 'flash' PMIs were quite positive with private sector output expanding at their quickest rate for nearly a year-and-a-half to start 2026.The Japanese central bank reviewed its monetary policy and no change was made, held at 0.75% - because an election is imminent. But now inflation concerns seem to be easing too. But markets are on alert for official intervention to support the yen.In India, their 'flash' January PMIs rose across both sectors, maintaining the very high rates of economic expansion there.We are starting to get the early January PMI reports for many key economies. The US factory version was little-changed in a modest expansion and it was the same for their services sector. But both recorded slightly better new order flows. Both noted cost pressures from their tariff-taxes. But as you will note from below this expansion lags most of the other large global economies.The Conference Board's leading economic indicator tracking for the US isn't positive reading, with the latest update reporting further declines.In Canada, their retail sector reported good gains in November, up +3.1% from a year ago, but these may not have extended into December, according to their overnight update.In the EU, output continues to rise in January and business confidence strengthened. That raised their factory PMIs to expansion, but their services PMI's hesitated.In Australia this week, they posted stronger than expected labour market data. That has sharply changed financial market pricing. And in turn there has been a rush by banks, both a major (NAB) and some challengers, to hike their fixed home loan rates today. They get their December CPI result next week and it is widely expected to challenge the upper end of their policy tolerance. If it does, suddenly Australian floating mortgage rates are at risk of a rise on February 3, 2026. If they do hike then, the Aussie policy rate will be 3.85% (3.60% +25 bps). And that will put it 160 bps higher than the RBNZ current 2.25%. It has been 14 years since this difference was that large.In Australia, private sector output expanded at its fastest pace in five months in December according to the S&P Global 'flash' PMI report. Both the factory and services sector expansions picked up, the services sector more than the factory sector however. Faster new order growth, including for exports, was a noted feature.And we should probably note that China received its first shipment of iron ore from their giant African mine at Simandou, Guinea. This likely marks a shift in China's iron ore import focus, likely to Australia's detriment.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, down -2 bps from this time Saturday. And here is something to keep an eye on, Europe's largest pension fund cut its holdings of US Treasury debt sharply in 2025, a trend that seems to be gathering steam, the 'sell America' trade, one started by Norway's sovereign wealth fund late last year.The price of gold will start today at US$4983/oz, up a minor +US$1 from Saturday bit still a new record again. US$5000 could come quickly now. Silver is up +US$2/oz at US$103/oz and also a record high. Platinum ihas eased marginally to US$2741/oz.American oil prices are holding at Saturday's at just on US$61/bbl, while the international Brent price is firmish, now just under US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday, still at about 59.4 USc. That makes it almost a -2c loss for the greenback for the week. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.1, and up +10 bps from Saturday, its highest since late September, and up +150 bps for the week.And we should probably note that the official Chinese yuan setting by the Peoples Bank of China slipped below 7 to the US dollar in Saturday's fixing, the first time it has done that since May 2023. Although to be fair, most currencies are rising against the USD, ours included.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,968 and down -2.0% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

An expectation the official cash rate will be held steady as inflation is higher than expected. Inflation's clocked in at 3.1 percent which means its snuck outside of the Reserve Bank's target band. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says there's now quite wide agreement that the OCR will be held at 2.25 to prevent further inflation. She told Ryan Bridge that more extreme measures could be needed. Zollner says it's more likely than not that the Official Cash Rate will be hiked sometime this year. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

​By Gareth VaughanGovernor Anna Breman has implied the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will increase the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in the run-up to November's election if members believe this is what is required."We are statutory independent. We are an independent central bank, like you point out, and we will do what is best for the New Zealand economy and to reach our inflation target," Breman told interest.co.nz in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast.She was asked if the Reserve Bank believes increasing the OCR is necessary, she would be comfortable doing so in the run up to November's election.Breman was speaking on Friday, after the release of Statistics NZ's December quarter Consumers Price Index (CPI) showed annual inflation at 3.1%, above the Reserve Bank's 1% to 3% target range."We are carefully looking through all the data. It's clear that there are some items in there that typically are very volatile. They can change a lot between different quarters. But of course 3.1% is high and it means that inflation that's been hurting households for many years is still above where we want it to be, but the outlook is still favorable in terms of inflation going forward. So it's also important to stress that we will focus on getting inflation back in the target band and towards the midpoint of the target band," Breman said.The Reserve Bank reviews the OCR for the first time this year on February 18.In a note following the CPI release BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis said financial markets had almost fully priced in a first OCR increase for the Reserve Bank's September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. And BNZ's economists have brought forward their expectations for a first OCR hike to September 2 from February 2027."One thing that needs to be taken into consideration is the General Election on November 7. The Reserve Bank is operationally independent so it can broadly do what it wants when it wants, but central banks are not keen to become embroiled in election campaigns if it can be avoided," said Toplis."In our opinion, this means the 28 October Monetary Policy Review would be far from optimal for a first rate hike. Moreover, it's always easier to tell the full story with a complete Monetary Policy Statement when a hiking cycle, or cutting, begins."Breman said she doesn't comment directly on market pricing. The OCR is currently at 2.25%, having been reduced from 5.50% since July 2024.In the podcast audioBreman speaks further about inflation including the challenges facing households, whether she expects help from government with the inflation fight, limits to Reserve Bank monetary policy, her recent support of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the response from Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Finance Minister Nicola Willis, risks around the Fed becoming less independent when President Donald Trump appoints a new Chairman, what climate change means for the Reserve Bank, her thoughts on a potential central bank digital currency, and more.*You can find all episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.​

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the US dollar is being marked down as demand for precious metal hedges rises.But first in the US there were 260,000 initial jobless claims last week, down -71,000 from the prior week and a marginally smaller change that the -73,000 change seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 2.21 mln people on these benefits, marginally less than the 2.24 mln a year ago. Two years ago, pre-Trump, there were 1.75 mln people on these benefits.US real personal income rose +1.0% in November from the same month a year ago. On this inflation-adjusted basis it has been flat since April 2025. But real personal consumption expenditures rose +2.6%. On an inflation-adjusted basis this is the same pace of rise that started in April 2021. It has been driven recently by services and non-durable goods. While the PCE data is still within the Fed's inflation band, the income drag will be worrying policymakers. The spending rise can't be maintained.The latest regional Fed factory survey, this one from the Kansas City Fed, shows no improvement from its dour base. It is still negative.Malaysia's central bank reviewed its monetary policy and related policy rate overnight and made no change to its 2.75% level. They have a strong economic expansion underway, and inflation is low.Japan's exports rose +5.1% in December from the same month a year ago, the fourth monthly increase and reaching a record value. As good as that was, analysts had expected a rise of +6.1%. Imports climbed +5.3% on the same basis, the fastest pace in 11 months and much faster than November's +1.3% rise.The EU's consumer sentiment survey for January was marginally better (less worse) than for December - again. This continues the slow grinding improvement from its depths in September 2022 and halving that negative level. But it is still negative at double the negative pre-pandemic. Still it is on an improved trajectory and that is in sharp contrast to the US where the similar UofM survey is now deeply negative with a recent deterioration and half the level it was pre-pandemicIn Australia, their labour market performed well in December. Employment increased by +65,000 in the month to 14.65 mln, with full time employment up +54,800 and part-time employment up +10,400. Hours worked rose. As a consequence their jobless rate fell to 4.1%, well below the prior 4.3% and the expected 4.4%. This probably ends any chance of a rate cut early February and brings forward the chance of a rate hike in 2026. Everything now depends on next week's CPI outcome where there is upside risk to November's 3.4% CPI rate now.Staying in Australia, job ad portal Seek is saying their platform shows job ads dropped -1.2% in December from November, and are down -3.5% from the same month a year ago. Applications per job ad fell -0.3% in December, "demonstrating a slightly sharper year-end decline in candidate activity than usual".And Australian unicorn Airwallex is to be investigated by the money laundering regulator AUSTRAC. They suspect "serious non-compliance" by the global payments platform, specialising in moving money internationally for dodgy clients.And we should probably note that the Trump Administration has advanced its role in granting licenses to mine the seabed in international waters. It is currently mapping resources off Samoa, and it has granted its first license to mine in international water to a US miner. The US only recognises a 12 mile country claim, so vast areas are now open to grant permits for their firms to mine. There is potential trouble ahead on jurisdictional issues.Global container freight rates fell -10% last week from the prior week to be -43% below year-ago levels. Bulk cargo freight rates rose +16% in the past week to be double year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.25%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4909/oz, and up another +US$66 from yesterday and a new record again. Silver is up +US$2.50/oz at US$96/oz and also a record high.American oil prices are down -US$1 from yesterday at just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is firmer from yesterday, up +50 bps to 59 USc as the USD is devalued in financial markets. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 86.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 62.9, and up +40 bps from yesterday and its highest since late September.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,026 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.Join us later this morning when we will report the New Zealand Q4-2025 CPI result, which could set the scene for the RBNZ decisions in 2026, the next one on February 18, 2026. Markets expect a 3.0% CPI rate, right at the top end of the central bank's policy comfort level.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Of all the nutty stuff Trump is up to, the most egregious is the DOJ-Jerome Powell investigation. Powell —I have not one shadow of doubt— makes, along with his board members, decisions based on traditional economic or monetary thinking. Trump does not. Of course you can debate, as we have in this country, whether a governor or chair of a central bank is doing the right thing or a good thing. But what you don't do is weaponize the law to hunt him down. A central bank's independence is the cornerstone of how a lot of the world's economy works. It matters. Which is why so many central bank chiefs came out in defence of Powell — one of which was our newly minted Reserve Bank Governor, Dr Anna Breman. She is now, it seems, in trouble for doing so. Winston Peters I didn't take that seriously, but Nicola Willis I do. And together I most certainly do. Both have now spoken out against her move. Willis says she should have taken advice. Breman says she didn't want to wake Willis at 3 in the morning. That worries me. I have woken the boss here at 3 in the morning because my computer password didn't work. I would have no hesitation ringing Willis at a similar time. I worry about her weakness. But more importantly — advice on what? Breman is independent. The irony is that the entire debate around Powell is about independence and the defence of it. Can Breman now only be independent if the government says so? And if that's the case, how far removed from the Trump view of the world are Peters and Willis? Are Willis and Peters scared of America and the White House? Would the advice have been: “Look, obviously you are independent, but please keep in mind we are scared witless of the nut job in Washington, so anything you can do to stop things getting messy would be appreciated”? Or —if we are universally agreed Breman should have taken advice— is she in fact a loose unit? Have we hired the wrong person? A person who has put her foot in it having only been in the job 15 minutes? So which is it? She is independent, and good on her? Or she is a puppet of government and she's trouble waiting to happen? Answers please. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A busy week looms locally, with the highlight likely to be the latest quarterly inflation report on Friday. If it comes in above RBNZ forecasts for a 2.7% annual gain, which might this mean for the path of interest rates?

New Zealand politics has been a whirlwind this year with RBNZ drama, Te Pati Māori's meltdown, the Treaty principles bill, and local body elections. 2026 will be another big year in New Zealand politics as parties gear up for the general election which will take place sometime in the second half of the year. Political correspondent Thomas Coughlan share shares with Francesca Rudkin with predictions of strategies and successes. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kiwibank has scrapped it's plans for partial privatisation after the Reserve Bank announced it's reduction of the amount of capital it requires banks to hold to protect their depositors in the event of a crisis. The bank had been talking to investors, seeking a $500 million capital raise after the Government gave it the green light to raise money to become more competitive. Kiwibank CEO Steve Jurkovich talked to Andrew Dickens about the change and the future of the market. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hopes a Reserve Bank move will translate to better prices for borrowers might be overly optimistic. It is changing the mix of capital banks are required to hold, aiming to reduce funding costs and freeing up around $5 billion in equity across the sector. It's also targeting closing the gap between bigger and smaller banks, making the market more competitive. Financial Markets and Banking Expert Andrew Body told Heather du Plessis-Allan that the change might result in a couple more chicken dinners for your average borrower, but nothing substantial. He says the big deal here is competition, which will require political leadership like we've seen in housing, education, and health to solve. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US futures edging higher at start of final full trading week of the year. European stocks opened higher and Asian equities are weaker. Treasury yields down 2 bps along curve while JGBs little changed. Dollar is strongest against kiwi after RBNZ governor's comments, while yen firmed against all majors. Crude and gold both higher. Bitcoin strengthening. Europe faces pivotal week as it works on Ukraine peace plans and attempts to reach loan agreement on funding Kyiv's war effort. Ukraine President Zelenskyy reiterated that ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia along current frontlines would be fair, but not Russia's demand for parts of Donetsk and Luhansk that Ukraine still holds. In a bid to reach ceasefire agreement Zelenskyy dropped bid for NATO membership in favor of similar security guarantees from US and European allies.Companies Mentioned: ServiceNow, Intel, SK Telecom

The BoJ Tankan survey showed sentiment of Large Manufacturers was at the highest in four years, which supports the case for a rate hike.European bourses are entirely in the green, with US equity futures also firmer; the RTY outperforms.DXY is a touch lower, whilst the JPY outperforms amidst growing bets of a BoJ hike this week and the Tankan Survey; the Kiwi underperforms after the RBNZ Governor suggested that market conditions have tightened “beyond” what the RBNZ intended.Global bonds are firmer across the board; USTs are currently firmer by c. 5 ticks.Crude benchmarks were initially firmer, but are now mildly lower as traders digest President Zelensky's potential concessions of Ukraine's NATO membership goals; XAU gains.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI (Nov), US Advance Goods Trade Balance (Sep), Australian PMI (Dec), Speakers including Fed's Miran, Williams & RBA's Jones.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were subdued following the lacklustre lead from Wall Street, with markets cautious ahead of the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers.RBA unsurprisingly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, although comments from RBA Governor Bullock at the press conference leaned hawkish.Ukrainian President Zelensky said talks in London were productive and there is small progress towards peace.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.1% after the cash market closed flat on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Oct), US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 22 Nov), JOLTS (Sep), EIA STEO, Speakers including ECB's Nagel, BoJ's Ueda, BoE's Ramsden, Lombardelli, Mann, Dhingra & RBNZ's Breman, Supply from UK & US, Earnings from GameStop.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers. Though the FT reported that China is set to limit access of NVIDIA's H200 chips; NVDA shares off best levels, last +0.5%.European bourses are broadly lower, US equity futures are mixed with the NQ dipping into modest negative territory after the FT report on NVIDIA.DXY hovers around 99.00, Antipodeans rise post RBA, and JPY remains subdued, but did gain on Ueda-FX related commentary.Global paper was initially subdued but now firmer, OATs await French vote.Crude benchmarks trade rangebound ahead of the EIA STEO, Copper continues to pull back from ATHs.Looking ahead, highlights include US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 22 Nov), JOLTS (Sep), EIA STEO, Speakers including BoE's Ramsden, Lombardelli, Mann, Dhingra & RBNZ's Breman, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Last week the Reserve Bank dropped the OCR 25 basis points to 2.25%, but their tone was a bit more hawkish than usual. Some analysts are thinking it's a signal that rates have gone as low as the RBNZ is willing to drop them - and the new Governor may be wanting to turn a new leaf in 2026. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The mail I'm getting got a bit more official yesterday with Fitch suggesting they think the Reserve Bank isn't done. A lot of people thought the Reserve Bank was done cutting because fill-in Governor Christian Hawkesby basically said as much last week. On the inference that it was over, swap rates on the wholesale market started going up. Why should you care? Because if you owe money to a bank a lot of their income to lend comes from the wholesale markets. If it goes up so does your interest rate, which is what has been happening since last Thursday. Now this is where we get into subtlety and nuance. Technically Hawkesby said the bank remains open to further action, so if you lined Hawkesby up in court he could defend himself. But as always in these matters it is the between the lines stuff, the nod and the wink stuff, that markets read. And they are reading an end and, as a result, the numbers are rising. Tied in, if another cut is coming as Fitch suggests, things are further complicated with our dollar, given places like Australia are doing the opposite. Their Reserve Bank is closer to hiking than cutting. That affects how the world sees our economy and our currency, at 87cents to the Australian dollar and at 43cents to the pound, looks anaemic. For good measure, Fitch seems downbeat about our recovery. They are calling 2% next year by way of GDP. They were saying 2.7%. This then brings in the Government. The Government, in election year, would like 2.7% over 2%. 2% they'd be able to milk but 2.7% is home court advantage. If you want one more thing that kind of backs up the Fitch funk, Black Friday didn't work. Spending was down on last year. Personally, I think that's about it being a crock of you-know-what and it's more clickbait than it is bargains and people are over being ripped off. But that's just me. So anyway, Hawkesby leaves with a trail of questions left behind as he heads to the beach. If you are one of the so-often quoted ones who are rolling out of one mortgage into another, these are still tricky times to try and get right and you want to hope Fitch has misread it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We got another OCR cut this week - now down to 2.25% - the lowest it's been since June of 2022. That was the last one for the year, so a lot of us mortgage holders are trying to figure out whether things are slowing down, and if it's time to fix for a longer term this time around. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, where stocks were underpinned amid Russia/Ukraine optimism and a softer yield environment.US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy.Nikkei 225 shrugged off a source report that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call; JPY strengthened, 10yr JGB futures trickled lower.NZD outperformed after the RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, as expected, and kept its options open on future policy, although its projections suggested a pause in rates throughout 2026.White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is reportedly seen as the frontrunner in the Fed Chair search, according to Bloomberg citing sources, although separate sources said “there is no frontrunner”.Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Jobless Claims (w/e 22 Nov), UK Autumn Budget, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including ECB's Vujcic, Lane & Lagarde, Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy.European bourses are entirely in the green, with the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) trading cautiously ahead of the UK Autumn Budget; US equity futures are modestly firmer.DXY is essentially flat, NZD outperforms after the RBNZ cut rates by 25bps (as expected), but projections suggest a pause throughout 2026.JPY initially strengthened on reports that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call; JPY is now lower vs USD.Bonds are on the backfoot, paring recent upside; Gilts initially lagged, but now trading in-line with peers as traders eye Chancellor Reeves.Crude is a little lower as focus remains on Russia/Ukraine peace talks, 3M LME Copper surges.Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Jobless Claims (w/e 22 Nov), UK Autumn Budget, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Reserve Bank Governor is leaving the job tomorrow with no major regrets about the pace of OCR cuts. The cash rate's dropped 25 basis points to 2.25%. Forward-projections suggest this will be the end of the current cycle of OCR cuts, with inflation expected to ease and the economy expected to recover in the new year. Governor Christian Hawkesby told Mike Hosking they've been responding to circumstances. He says they've been dealing with a stall in economic recovery while focusing on their mandate of controlling inflation. Hawkesby says it's hard to say exactly why New Zealand's recovery has stalled more than other countries, telling Hosking there isn't one clear reason for the downturn this year. He says it's a bit of a puzzle, with tariffs and cautiousness both playing a role, and that's why last month's cut was needed to kickstart the economy. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Will the RBNZ pull the trigger on 25 or 50? Here's what really sits behind Wednesday's OCR call.In this episode, we break down the latest inflation data, card-spending trends, bank pass-through (or lack of it), how summer spending could shape the economy, and why confidence - not just cuts - will determine whether 2026 finally turns a corner.Next Steps: If you want to find out whether you qualify for the 1.5% cashback or how a refinance works, get in touch with Lighthouse Mortgages and they'll walk you through your exact options.For more money tips follow us on:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The content in this podcast is the opinion of the hosts. It should not be treated as financial advice. It is important to take into consideration your own personal situation and goals before making any financial decisions.