Podcasts about G20

In today's episode, we delve deep into the transformative role of digital technologies in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. With the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) highlighting that over two-thirds of these goals can benefit directly from digital advancements, our discussion focuses on the urgency and methods to accelerate solutions for global challenges. It's important to explore how businesses can harness technologies like AI, advanced materials, and 3D printing not just for growth, but for the betterment of our planet and its inhabitants. Joining us to navigate this complex yet fascinating terrain is Mar-cha Hoek, a distinguished figure in the realm of sustainable business and capital. Marga, a three-time CEO, Chair, and Board Member, has been a global voice for the G20 and is celebrated for her visionary, purpose-driven leadership. Her work has earned her numerous accolades, including being recognized by Thinkers50 for her global management thinking. As the author of influential books like "New Economy Business," and "The Trillion Dollar Shift," and now her latest, "Tech for Good," she has been a trailblazer in marrying technology with sustainability.In our conversation with Marga, we'll address some critical questions. How do we define the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and why is it pivotal in addressing today's societal challenges? What are some examples where AI, like generative AI, has driven positive change? We'll also discuss the potential of advanced materials in the fight against climate change, the integration of 4IR technologies in business for sustainable efficiency, and the role of investors in advocating for 'Tech for Good' practices. Additionally, Marga will share her insights on how new technologies can foster a more diverse and inclusive job market and the intriguing use of 3D printing in coral reef restoration.

#以哈戰事 本週以哈在加薩走廊的戰事焦點在雙方的停火。上週五開始停火四天，週一又達成再延長兩天的協議，主因在於哈瑪斯同意釋放人質，而以色列同意釋放監獄內巴勒斯坦的囚犯；雙方之所以能夠達成停火協議要歸功於卡達的居中斡旋… #荷蘭大選 11/22荷蘭舉行議會選舉，極右派自由黨（PVV）黨魁維爾德斯（Geert Wilders）勝出，大機率能夠組閣成為荷蘭新首相。維爾德斯被外界稱為荷蘭版川普，走的路線是反歐盟、反伊斯蘭、反外國移民的民粹主義；而這次他之所以能夠勝選主因在於經濟問題… #俄烏情勢 11/22俄羅斯總統普丁在G20峰會以視訊方式首度表示，俄羅斯對烏克蘭的「特別軍事行動」是一場悲劇，這是戰爭發生以來普丁講話最柔軟的一次，並提及俄羅斯從未拒絕和烏克蘭談判。普丁這個行為被外界解讀為為了爭取國際支持的手段… #東北亞情勢 11/21朝鮮發射軍事衛星，引起東北亞國家的關切。南韓在軍事衛星發射後，撕毀了2018年與北韓達成的《九一九軍事協議》，並表示對北韓採取全面的軍事監控，而北韓在雙方邊界許久未處理的哨所也開始整修，雙方關係一下變得劍拔弩張…

來賓：前立法委員 郭正亮、台大政治系教授 楊永明 本日主題： 1. 拜習會後 美中蜜月期能維持多久？ 2. 習近平主持金磚特別峰會促以哈和平 美選民調不認同拜登高達70% 3. 普丁參與G20視訊峰會 稱思考如何中止俄烏戰爭悲劇 －－－－以下訊息由 SoundOn 動態廣告贊助商提供－－－－ 什麼都漲，當然荷包也得跟著漲

-Aumento al salario mínimo se dará a conocer en diciembre: AMLO-UNAM pone en marcha la campaña de recaudación de fondos AdoptAxolotl -El G20 destaca la solución de dos Estados para poner fin al conflicto entre Israel y Hamás-Más información en nuestro podcast

세계 뉴스와 함께 미국의 모든 것을 소개하는 '생방송 여기는 워싱턴입니다', 2023년 11월 23일 저녁 방송입니다. '지구촌 오늘'에서는 나렌드라 모디 인도 총리가 팔레스타인 가자지구 내 휴전 합의를 환영한다고 주요20개국(G20) 화상 정상회의에서 밝힌 소식 전해드리고, '아메리카 나우'에서는 재선에 도전하는 조 바이든 대통령에게 고령에 따른 건강 문제와 국내 경제, 외교 등 풀어내야 할 과제가 산적해 있다는 분석 살펴보겠습니다. 방송 시간: 한반도 오후 10:00~11:00 (UTC 13:00~14:00)

세계 뉴스와 함께 미국의 모든 것을 소개하는 '생방송 여기는 워싱턴입니다', 2023년 11월 24일 아침 방송입니다. '지구촌 오늘'에서는 나렌드라 모디 인도 총리가 팔레스타인 가자지구 내 휴전 합의를 환영한다고 주요20개국(G20) 화상 정상회의에서 밝힌 소식 전해드리고, '아메리카 나우'에서는 재선에 도전하는 조 바이든 대통령에게 고령에 따른 건강 문제와 국내 경제, 외교 등 풀어내야 할 과제가 산적해 있다는 분석 살펴보겠습니다. 방송 시간: 한반도 오전 4:00~5:00 (UTC 19:00~20:00).

Israel and Hamas are due to exchange hostages this morning but will it actually happen and what comes next? We also discuss the virtual G20 summit, hear why Poland's plans to create a major aviation hub have hit turbulence and assess what the calls for an Olympic Truce at the Paris games is all about. Plus: we meet iconic sculptor Antony Gormley. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

La Bayer è stata condannata a risarcire con 1,5 miliardi di dollari tre agricoltori che affermano di essersi ammalati a causa del glifosato, e in generale sta attraversando una crisi che sembra senza fine. Intanto il governo ha presentato un piano per educare alle relazioni nella scuola, che però presenta diverse lacune. Parliamo anche della tregua fra Israele e hamas e dello strano discorso di Putin al G20, di alcune novità che riguardano l'Intelligenza artificiale, dell'Ue che vieta l'esportazione di rifiuti di plastica nei paesi più poveri e infine di uno sversamento di petrolio nel golfo del Messico.INDICE:00:00:00 - Sommario 00:00:49 - La maxi multa alla Bayer00:06:39 - Il piano del governo per educare alle relazioni nelle scuole00:11:30 - I punti della tregua a Gaza00:15:10 - Sam Altman torna in sella di OpenAI e altre novità sull'AI00:17:59 - L'Ue vieta le esportazioni di rifiuti di plastica nei paesi poveri00:19:59 - C'è un versamento di petrolio nel golfo del Messico00:21:51 - La giornata di Italia che CambiaIscriviti alla NEWSLETTER: https://bit.ly/43SCSr8

Spiagge frattali e un G20 vergognoso. Oscar Giannino, Don Chisciotte, ne parla con Carlo Alberto Carnevale Maffé, Ronzinante, e Renato Cifarelli, Sancho Panza.Per supportarci potete farlo quiwww.donchisciottepodcast.itSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

O presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) celebrou o acordo entre Israel e Hamas para liberação de reféns. “Quero saudar o acordo anunciado hoje entre Israel e o Hamas, que envolve a libertação de reféns em troca de uma trégua temporária de quatro dias e da libertação de prisioneiros palestinos", disse Lula durante encontro virtual do G20 nesta quarta-feira (22). Ouça também: Brasil perde para Argentina após brigas no Maracanã e fica em 6º nas Eliminatórias. Apresentação: Camila OlivoProdução e roteiro: Bruna Sales, Camila Olivo, Rodrigo Tammaro e Ricardo GouveiaEdição de áudio e sonorização: Rodrigo Pzicioneri

Mentre in medio oriente la guerra prosegue con i soldati delle Forze di difesa israeliane che oggi hanno fatto irruzione nel quartier generale di Hamas nella zona di Sheikh Zayed, nel nord della Striscia di Gaza il governo israeliano e Hamas hanno concordato una pausa di quattro giorni nei combattimenti per consentire il rilascio graduale di 50 ostaggi detenuti a Gaza in cambio di 150 prigionieri palestinesi in Israele e l'ingresso di aiuti umanitari nell'enclave assediata.

ROMA (ITALPRESS) - In questa edizione: - Turetta, da Germania ok ad estradizione - Violenza sulle donne, Senato approva all'unanimità Ddl Roccella - Putin al G20 pensa a come fermare tragedia in Ucraina - Israele, irruzione esercito in quartier generale Hamas - Bufera su Lollobrigida che fa fermare il Frecciarossa - Guasto ai freni di un treno merci, macchinista si lancia in corsa - Ragazza aggredita a Milano si salva con gesto anti-violenza - Violenza, per 20% maschi è causata da abbigliamento femminile - Da Amazon una "Fun House" dedicata al Black Friday - Previsioni 3B Meteo 23 Novembregsl

सात अक्टूबर से हमास के कब्ज़े वाले इज़रायली बंधकों को लेकर बहुप्रतीक्षित डील हो गई है. शुरूआती चरण में 50 बंधकों जिनमें महिलाएं और बच्चे शामिल हैं उन्हें छोड़ा जाएगा और इसके बदले में चार दिन तक का अस्थायी युद्ध विराम होगा, इजरायल-हमास युद्ध के बीच भारत के विदेश मंत्री एस जयशंकर ने गाजा को लेकर एक बड़ा बयान दिया, प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी आज G20 की वर्चुअल समिट की अध्यक्षता करेंगे, उत्तराखंड की उत्तरकाशी टनल में 41 मजदूरों के फंसे होने का आज 11वां दिन हैं, पश्चिम बंगाल सरकार ने राज्य में ग्रुप से 25 हजार करोड़ रुपये के ताजपुर पोर्ट को विकसित करने का प्रोजेक्ट छीन लिया है, सुनिए सुबह 10 बजे का 5 मिनट पॉडकास्ट.

MOSCA (RUSSIA) (ITALPRESS) - "La Russia non ha mai rinunciato ai colloqui di pace con l'Ucraina. Non è stata la Russia, ma l'Ucraina ad annunciare pubblicamente il ritiro dai negoziati. E inoltre è stato firmato un decreto, un decreto del capo dello Stato, che vieta tali negoziati con la Russia". Lo dice il presidente russo Vladimir Putin al vertice online del G20.sat/gsl (Fonte video: Cremlino)

「「世界の発展基盤揺るがしている」　岸田首相 ウクライナ侵攻めぐり」　ロシアのプーチン大統領が、G20(主要20カ国・地域)の首脳会議にオンラインで出席した。欧米諸国の首脳が参加する主要な国際会議に出席するのは、ウクライナ侵攻後、初めて。一方、この会議の中で岸田首相は、ロシアによるウクライナ侵略について、「世界の持続可能な発展の基盤を揺るがしている」と批判した。G20の会議の中で、岸田首相は「国際社会は、いっそう複雑化する危機に直面している」と指摘し、「ロシアによるウクライナ侵略は、これまで各国が非難してきているにもかかわらず、今も続いており、世界の持続可能な発展の基盤を揺るがしている」と批判した。そのうえで、「国際社会が直面する諸課題に対処するには、人間の尊厳が守られる世界を目指していくべきだ」と訴え、安保理改革を含む国連の機能強化も重要だとして行動を呼びかけた。

-México celebra acuerdo entre Israel y Hamas para la liberación de rehenes -Buscan a los agresores de Cristian, joven que quemado en Texcoco-Putin reprocha al G20 su selectiva preocupación-Más información en nuestro podcast

Dogovor o štiridnevnem premirju in izmenjavi izraelskih talcev in palestinskih zapronikov je priložnost za olajšanje humanitarne krize v Gazi, poudarja evropski komisar za krizno upravljanje Janez Lenarčič. Razmere na Bližnjem vzhodu so bile tudi v ospredju vrha najrazvitejših gospodarstev. Druge teme: - Članice G20 enotne, da se bližjevzhodni konflikt ne sme razširiti v soseščino - Državni zbor bo še nocoj potrjeval proračunske dokumente - Finančni položaj na RTV izredno resen; po oceni uprave bodo nujni finančni rezi

「プーチン氏 G20にオンライン出席　「悲劇を止める方法を考える必要」」　ロシアのプーチン大統領が、G20(主要20カ国・地域)の首脳会議にオンラインで出席した。欧米諸国の首脳が参加する主要な国際会議に出席するのは、ウクライナ侵攻後、初めて。プーチン大統領は22日、議長国インドの呼びかけで開催された、オンライン形式のG20首脳会議に出席し、戦闘が続くガザでの民間人被害が「衝撃だ」と話した。会議で、一部の首脳がロシアによるウクライナ侵攻が「衝撃」だと発言したことについては、「軍事行動は常に悲劇で、それを止める方法を考える必要がある」と反論した。そのうえで、ウクライナとの和平交渉について、ロシアが拒否したことはない、拒否しているのはウクライナだとあらためて主張した。

Başkan Biden'ın hafta sonu Washington Post'ta yayınlanan görüş yazısı, kendini gerçeklerden ne kadar soyutladığını gösteriyor. Putin ve Hamas'ın ‘demokratik komşularını haritadan silmek için savaştıkları' şeklinde en hafif ifadesiyle tuhaf bir benzetmeye imza atan Biden, bu aktörlerin bölgesel istikrar ve entegrasyonu yıkarak ortaya çıkan karmaşadan faydalanmayı umduklarını iddia ediyor. Ne Rusya'nın Ukrayna'nın işgalini ne de İsrail'in Gazze'de yaptığı katliamları doğru bağlamına oturtabilen Biden'ın Amerika'nın dış politika çıkarlarını dahi doğru belirleyemediğini görüyoruz. Rusya'nın Ukrayna gibi egemen bir devleti işgal girişimiyle, işgal altındaki topraklarda örgütlenen Hamas'ın Gazze'yi kuşatan ve Filistin'i işgale devam eden İsrail'e karşı saldırılarını bir tutma yanlışında ısrar eden Biden, Amerikan çıkarları adına sürekli savunduğu ‘kurallara dayalı uluslararası sistemin' en temel değerlerinin çiğnendiğinin farkında değil adeta. Biden'ın yazısında ABD'nin müttefik ve ortaklarıyla saldırganlara karşı birlikte hareket etme noktasında liderlik yaptığı iddiası da Filistin konusunda uluslararası sistemde ne kadar yalnızlaştığının farkında olmadığını gösteriyor. Amerika'nın zamanımızın problemlerini çözme konusunda ‘liderlik görevi' olduğunu savunan Biden'ın liderlik iddiasının İsrail'e verdiği destek yüzünden ne kadar itibar kaybettiğinin de farkında olmadığı görülüyor. Biden Amerika'nın Ukrayna konusunda Batı'yı özellikle Rusya'ya karşı bir araya getirebilme başarısının Hamas'a karşı da aynı şekilde tezahür ettiğini varsayıyor anlaşılan. Amerika'nın ne Ortadoğu'da ne de uluslararası arenada artık insan hakları ve demokrasiden bahsedemeyeceğini, bahsetse de kimsenin dinlemeyeceğini göremeyen Biden, İsrail politikasına eklemlenmek ve Amerika adına politika üretmekten kaçınmak hatasına düşüyor. İsrailli rehinelerin acılarından ve travmalarından bahsettikten sonra Filistinlilerin yaşadıklarından da içinin yandığını ifade eden Biden, ana hedefin çatışmayı bugün için durdurmak değil savaşı ebediyen bitirmek olduğunu söyleyerek Filistinli sivil ölümlerin engellenmesinin yeterince acil bir öncelik olmadığını ifade etmiş oluyor. Bitmeyen şiddet sarmalını kırarak tarihin tekerrür etmemesi için Gazze ve Ortadoğu'da ‘daha güçlü bir şey' kurmak gerekiyor diyen Biden, bu bir şeyin ne olduğunu ifade edebilecek bir vizyondan da yoksun görünüyor. İsrail'in Gazze'yi işgal edip kontrol etmek istediği açıkken ve bunun tarihi kesinlikle tekerrür ettireceği her uzman tarafından kabul edilirken Biden'ın bu ifadeleri Amerikan politikasını İsrail politikasının kabulüne indirgediğinin bir başka itirafı aslında. Biden, eylül ayında G20 zirvesinde açıkladığı Hindistan'dan BAE, Suudi Arabistan, Ürdün ve İsrail'e oradan da Avrupa'ya uzanacak ticaret yolunun bölgenin entegrasyonu için umut olduğunu ve bu gelecekte Hamas'a yer olmadığını savunuyor. İki devletli çözümün hem Filistin hem de İsrail için en güvenli gelecek olduğunu söyleyen Biden, Gazze'nin Filistin Yönetimi tarafından yönetilmesi gerektiğini ve tekrar işgal edilmemesi gerektiğini yazıyor. Uluslararası toplumun da Gazze'nin yeniden inşasına odaklanması gerektiğini söyleyen Biden, özetle Filistin'deki tek sorunun Hamas olduğunu belirtmiş oluyor. Hamas'ın değil Filistin Yönetimi'nin yönettiği Batı Şeria'da İsrail'in işgalinin genişleyerek devam ettiğini ve her yıl yüzlerce Filistinlinin öldürüldüğünü görmezden gelen Biden, Gazze için de benzer formül önererek aslında İsrail'in vizyonunun altına imza atmış oluyor. İki devletli çözümü ismen ansa da pratikte İsrail'in kontrolü altında gerçekten egemen olmayan bir Filistin devleti vizyonu ortaya koyuyor.

Top news of the day: Israeli government approves deal for release of 50 Gaza hostages, truce, Largest crypto exchange Binance fined $4 billion, CEO pleads guilty to not stopping money laundering, PM Modi to hold virtual G20 leaders' summit today, US conducts precision strikes in Iraq after attacks from Iran-backed groups, 'Was Rohit being too greedy?': Gavaskar on India captain's wicket in World Cup final

Dopo 46 giorni dalla strage di civili da parte di Hamas e la durissima rappresaglia da parte di Israele le due parti hanno raggiunto un accordo per il rilascio di 50 ostaggi israeliani in cambio di una tregua di 4-5 giorni e la liberazione di 150 palestinesi. Ne parliamo con Roberto Bongiorni del Sole 24 Ore. A seguire un approfondimento sulle elezioni politiche in Olanda con il nostro inviato Sergio Nava e un focus sul G20 che vede il ritorno del presidente Russo Vladimir Putin.

Israel e Hamas aceitam acordo para troca de reféns por presos e trégua de quatro dias. Hoje é o Dia do Professor angolano: Sindicato anuncia protestos contra agressões relatadas por professores nas escolas. Arranca sob tensão a corrida eleitoral para as presidenciais na RDC. Em Berlim, cimeira económica do programa Compacto do G20 com África termina com apelos a mais investimentos.

Emmanuel Macron n'ira pas rendre visite aux maires à l'occasion de leur congrès. Le chef de l'État est retenu par un G20 en visioconférence, mais il recevra un millier d'élus à l'Élysée demain soir. Est-ce que cela suffira à calmer leur malaise ?

Early next month, the European Union and China are set to hold the 24th bilateral summit. The last EU-China summit was held via video conference in April 2022. It took place against the background of China's countermeasures to EU sanctions on human rights, Chinese economic coercion and trade measures against the single market, and most importantly, Russia's military aggression against Ukraine and Beijing's unwillingness to condemn the invasion. Earlier this year, the European Council reaffirmed the EU's multifaceted policy approach towards China, which is based on the judgment that China is simultaneously a partner, a competitor, and a systemic rival. However, that balancing act is getting more and more difficult.Host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Mr. Gunnar Wiegand, who has recently retired from the post of Managing Director for Asia and the Pacific at the European External Action Service, which he held for 7 ½ years. He is now a visiting professor at the College of Europe and the Paris School of International Affairs, and as of November 1, 2023, he has joined GMF's Indo-Pacific program as a visiting distinguished fellow.  Timestamps[01:39] EU-China Relations on the Eve of the 24th Bilateral Summit[05:13] Impact of the War in Ukraine on EU-China Relations[07:29] How could China alleviate concerns in Europe? [09:33] De-risking in the European Union[15:27] Proportionate and Precise Economic Security[18:27] How similar are EU and US perceptions of China?[22:13] The EU's Stance on Taiwan[26:19] How can EU contribute to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait?[27:21] Outcomes of the Biden-Xi Summit

durée : 00:02:30 - Le monde est à nous - La guerre à Gaza est mardi au cœur d'une réunion extraordinaire des BRICS en visioconférence, avec la participation de Vladimir Poutine, qui sera aussi mercredi au sommet virtuel du G20. Le président russe revient dans le jeu diplomatique.

- Trong khuôn khổ sáng kiến Nhóm các nền kinh tế phát triển và mới nổi (G20) gắn kết với châu Phi - “G20 Compact with Africa”, Đức vừa đăng cai tổ chức Hội nghị thượng đỉnh đầu tư với các nhà lãnh đạo các quốc gia châu Phi nhằm thúc đẩy đầu tư vào lục địa vốn đang có tốc độ phát triển nhanh chóng. Nhìn lại, Đức là quốc gia khởi động sáng kiến này từ năm 2017 khi giữ vai trò Chủ tịch G20. Hội nghị năm nay được cho là cơ hội để Thủ tướng Olaf Scholz “sốc” lại niềm tin và thúc đẩy sự tham gia của các nhà đầu tư vào lục địa còn giàu tiềm năng này. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/vov1sukien/support

Mỹ-Trung đã đạt được nhiều « tiến bộ cụ thể » sau thượng đỉnh San Francisco, nhưng đấy chỉ là vỏ bọc bề ngoài. Nhà Trắng « bắt buộc phải cứng giọng với Bắc Kinh » để kiếm phiếu trước bầu cử 2024. Trung Quốc đấu dịu vì tăng trưởng còn phụ thuộc vào thị trường và công nghệ Mỹ. Bắc Kinh tiếp tục « mài gươm cho sắc » để chuẩn bị những bước tiếp theo. Giới chuyên gia đồng loạt nhận xét như trên sau cuộc họp giữa hai phái đoàn Mỹ-Trung hôm 15/11/2023. Woodside, gần thành phố San Francisco, bang California, vào tuần trước trở thành tâm điểm thời sự quốc tế với thượng đỉnh Joe Biden-Tập Cận Bình. Sau bốn giờ họp, đôi bên ra về với nhiều « tiến bộ cụ thể ». Tổng thống Biden nêu bật hai thành công lớn : một là Bắc Kinh đồng ý hợp tác chống « sản xuất và buôn ma túy tổng hợp », trong đó có Fentanyl, được gọi là « ma túy cho dân nghèo ». Năm 2022, hơn 100.000 công dân Mỹ tử vong vì sử dụng Fentanyl quá liều. Fentanyl tàn phá nhiều gia đình Mỹ, đè nặng lên xã hội và kinh tế Hoa Kỳ. Trung Quốc bị coi « công xưởng sản xuất Fentanyl của thế giới ». Do vậy, cam kết của ông Tập với tổng thống Biden về hồ sơ này giúp Nhà Trắng ghi điểm với công luận Mỹ.Thành quả thứ nhì đạt được sau thượng đỉnh San Francisco liên quan đến việc Mỹ và Trung Quốc đồng ý nối lại « đối thoại quân sự », vốn bị gián đoạn từ tháng 08/2022. Marc Julienne, Viện Quan Hệ Quốc Tế IFRI của Pháp, lưu ý, vào lúc các hoạt « dồn dập chung quanh Đài Loan và ở Biển Đông, rủi ro xảy ra sự cố, tai nạn, hiểu nhầm càng lớn », cho nên việc đối thoại trực tiếp để nhanh chóng làm hạ nhiệt tình hình khi cần là điểm hết sức quan trọng đối với cả Bắc Kinh lẫn Washington. Mọi yếu tố cho phép giảm thiểu rủi ro xảy ra xung đột vũ trang giữa hai siêu cường kinh tế và quân sự trên thế giới, góp phần trấn an các doanh nghiệp Mỹ và các đồng minh của Washington tại Châu Á-Thái Bình Dương.  Đôi bên cùng đấu dịuVề phía Trung Quốc, trước khi chính thức ngồi vào bàn đàm phán với tổng thống Biden, các cố vấn của chủ tịch Tập Cận Bình đã dành nhiều thời gian để chuẩn bị cuộc tiếp xúc của lãnh đạo Bắc Kinh với 400 công dân Hoa Kỳ, mà phần lớn là chủ nhân các tập đoàn hàng đầu như Tesla, Apple, Pfizer hay của các quỹ đầu tư lớn nhất nước Mỹ như BlackRock, BlackStone… Thêm một lý do khiến lãnh đạo Bắc Kinh hài lòng : chính quyền Biden dịu giọng trong chủ trương « tách rời » khỏi nền kinh tế Trung Quốc.Trên đài phát thanh Pháp France Culture, kinh tế gia Agathe Demarais, thuộc trung tâm nghiên cứu châu Âu về quan hệ quốc tế (European Council on Foreign Relations), ghi nhận :« Mỹ không còn đả động đến việc tách rời khỏi kinh tế Trung Quốc nữa mà chỉ nói đến việc cần giảm thiểu rủi ro, tức là giảm mức độ lệ thuộc vào quốc gia châu Á này. Một cách gián tiếp, Washington báo trước là sẽ không ban hành các biện pháp đè nặng lên tăng trưởng của Trung Quốc, nhưng đồng thời Hoa Kỳ cũng thực sự quan ngại trước việc một số công nghệ của Mỹ giúp Bắc Kinh phát triển về mặt quân sự ». Một tuần lễ sau thượng đỉnh Mỹ-Trung 2023, vẫn chưa thấy chính quyền Biden thông báo ngừng hay nới lỏng các biện pháp kiểm soát xuất nhập khẩu trang thiết bị nhậy cảm với Trung Quốc, trong lúc đây có thể là một trong những điểm quan trọng đối với chủ tịch họ Tập, theo quan điểm của chuyên gia Valérie Niquet, Quỹ Nghiên Cứu Chiến Lược Pháp trong một chương trình phát thanh trên đài France Inter :« Theo tôi, ông Tập Cận Bình thực sự cần đạt được một chút gì đó với Mỹ, đặc biệt là trên vấn đề kinh tế chẳng hạn như là về việc mở cửa thị trường hay chuyển giao công nghệ trong lĩnh vực bán dẫn. Những biện pháp trừng phạt Trung Quốc, được ban hành từ thời tổng thống Trump và tiếp tục được duy trì dưới chính quyền Biden, cho thấy một cách quá rõ rệt là tăng trưởng của Trung Quốc vẫn còn phụ thuộc vào khả năng tiếp cận với công nghệ của Hoa Kỳ, vào thị trường các nước phát triển. Bắc Kinh có thể mở rộng ảnh hưởng với Nga, châu Phi hay Trung Âu nhưng tất cả những thị trường đó không thể lấp vào chỗ trống của Mỹ hay Liên Hiệp Châu Âu (...)Về chuyển giao công nghệ, Trung Quốc chưa thể tự chủ. Nhưng đương nhiên là Bắc Kinh cố gắng che đậy nhược điểm đó bằng những tuyên bố mang đầy tính tự hào dân tộc về khả năng phát triển những công nghệ của riêng mình để không phụ thuộc vào Mỹ … Nhưng thực tế cho thấy là mục tiêu đó còn xa vời ».Rối rắm trong nội bộ Trung Quốc Phải chăng điều này giải thích cho thái độ « mềm mỏng » hơn của lãnh đạo Trung Quốc tại thượng đỉnh San Francisco so với cuộc họp Biden-Tập Cận Bình ở Bali-Indonesia đúng một năm trước đây ? Cũng Marc Julienne, ghi nhận mùa thu 2023 ông Tập Cận Bình bắt tay Joe Biden vài tháng sau khi được chỉ định tiếp tục điều hành đất nước thêm một nhiệm kỳ 5 năm, công luận trong nước và quốc tế kỳ vọng nhiều vào đà bật dậy của kinh tế Trung Quốc sau 3 năm đóng cửa chống dịch. Nhưng một năm sau, « tình hình » nội bộ Trung Quốc có chiều hướng xấu đi : Ngay cả chính trị Trung Quốc cũng có những dấu hiệu bất an (ngoại trưởng và bộ trưởng Quốc Phòng Trung Quốc hai thành viên nặng ký từng được chính ông Tập Cận Bình tín nhiệm đã bị cách chức).Về kinh tế, khủng hoảng địa ốc lan rộng, thất nghiệp gia tăng trong lúc xuất khẩu bị đe dọa vì chiến tranh Ukraina và xung đột ở Trung-Cận Đông. Đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài FDI, vốn là một trong cột trụ của mô hình tăng trưởng của Trung Quốc từ 4 thập niên qua, nay cũng đang bị « chao đảo », cho nên, như ghi nhận của Mathieu Duchâtel, chủ nhiệm chương trình châu Á thuộc viện nghiên cứu Institut Montaigne - Paris, một trong những trọng tâm của ông Tập Cận Bình trong chuyến đi Mỹ vừa qua là nhắm trấn an các doanh nghiệp của Mỹ, quốc tế và kể cả của Đài Loan :« Theo các số liệu gần đây nhất, năm 2020 Hoa Lục thu hút 80 % đầu tư của Đài Loan ở hải ngoại. Tỷ lệ này rơi xuống còn 13,6 % năm 2022. Để so sánh tổng đầu tư của Đài Loan vào các nước trong khối Đông Nam Á đã cao hơn so với đầu tư vào Trung Quốc. Đây là một bước ngoặt hết sức quan trọng đối với Trung Quốc vào lúc các tập đoàn Đài Loan, như là Foxconn chẳng hạn, đã đóng góp rất nhiều vào tiến trình phát triển của Trung Quốc. Cho đến hiện tại, Foxconn vẫn đứng đầu trong số các hãng xưởng bảo đảm việc làm cho người lao động ở Hoa Lục. Rõ ràng là cuộc chiến thương mại khai mào dưới chính quyền Trump hồi 2018 đang dẫn đến những hậu quả lớn hơn gấp bội (...)Rất rõ ràng là phía Bắc Kinh muốn trấn an các nhà đầu tư ngoại quốc về tình hình và môi trường kinh doanh ở Hoa Lục. Đây không chỉ là một thông điệp nhắm tới các doanh nhân Mỹ mà còn nhắn gửi đến các hãng của Đài Loan bên cạnh những tuyên bố chính thức ‘đằng đằng sát khí'. Theo chỗ tôi được biết, cấp cao nhất trong chính quyền tại Bắc Kinh, trấn an các doanh nhân Đài Loan là một điểm nhấn. Một ủy viên Ban Thường Vụ Bộ Chính Trị Đảng Cộng Sản đã đề nghị thành lập một đặc khu kinh tế với những điều khoản ưu đãi, dành riêng cho các doanh nhân Đài Loan. Điểm được chọn là tỉnh Phúc Kiến, gần với Đài Loan nhất, ở phía nam Trung Quốc. Không chỉ với Mỹ mà cả với Đài Loan, sợi chỉ đỏ trong chính sách kinh tế của Bắc Kinh càng lúc càng rõ nét Sợi chỉ đỏ trong chính sách của Bắc Kinh càng lúc càng rõ nét. Thông điệp chính dường như là, bất chấp những mối đe dọa, Trung Quốc không phải là một điểm đầu tư nguy hiểm như mọi đang nghĩ hiện nay ».Những bàn tay thép trong những chiếc găng nhung Tuy nhiên, cũng sẽ là một sai lầm lớn nếu nghĩ rằng Trung Quốc đã bị dồn vào chân tường để phải nhượng bộ Washington. Drew Thomson, một cựu quan chức của Lầu Năm Góc, được đài Mỹ CNN trích dẫn giải thích thái độ « mềm mỏng » hơn vì Bắc Kinh đã nhận thấy rằng không có lợi khi thổi phồng « mối đe dọa Hoa Kỳ ». Trái lại, một mối bang giao « ổn định » và « bình thường » với nền kinh tế số 1 thế giới và phương Tây sẽ tiếp tục nuôi dưỡng cỗ máy tăng trưởng của Trung Quốc.Valérie Niquet, thuộc Quỹ Nghiên Cứu Chiến Lược Pháp, cũng nhận thấy rằng thái độ hung hăng không cho phép Bắc Kinh thủ lợi :« Tập Cận Bình muốn là các nhà đầu tư Mỹ và quốc tế trở lại Trung Quốc vào lúc mà vốn đầu tư nước ngoài ồ ạt rút khỏi Hoa Lục. Trong một thời gian dài, khi nói đến Trung Quốc các doanh nhân quốc tế nhìn thấy những cơ hội nhiều hơn là những rủi ro. Bây giờ thì ngược lại. Người ta thận trọng trước các dự án đầu tư vào Trung Quốc, hay là chọn giải pháp Trung Quốc +1 để bớt lệ thuộc vào một quốc gia với những quyết định không nhất quán ».Về cơ bản Mỹ và Trung Quốc vẫn là những đối thủ đáng gờmMột sai lầm khác cũng tai hại không kém nếu chủ quan cho rằng Hoa Kỳ và Trung Quốc bắt đầu sưởi ấm quan hệ một cách lâu dài. Agathe Demarais trung tâm nghiên cứu quan hệ quốc tế châu Âu nhắc lại : hai đảng Dân Chủ và Cộng Hòa ở Mỹ đang bị chia rẽ vì rất nhiều vấn đề, ngoại trừ việc xem Trung Quốc là một « mối đe dọa ».Cứng giọng với Trung Quốc dễ cho phép tổng thống Biden thuyết phục công luận trước mùa tranh cử. Do vậy, không mấy ai chờ đợi từ nay đến mùa thu sang năm, Washington sẽ nói lỏng một số các biện pháp trừng phạt và kềm tỏa Trung Quốc cả về thương mại lẫn công nghệ.Đó là chưa kể cuộc tranh giành ảnh hưởng Mỹ-Trung với phần còn lại của thế giới đang diễn ra trên rất nhiều mặt. Chỉ riêng về thương mại, hơn một nửa số thành viên khối G20 lệ thuộc vào các luồng giao thương của Trung Quốc nhiều hơn là của Mỹ. Chỉ một mình Trung Quốc chiếm hơn 20 % tổng kim ngạch mậu dịch của nhiều nước lớn như Nhật Bản, Hàn Quốc hay Úc, Brazil, Indonesia ...Nhìn từ phía Trung Quốc, ông Tập Cận Bình thừa biết Joe Biden không và không thể tỏ ra hòa hoãn (hay tệ hơn nữa là « mềm yếu ») với Bắc Kinh trên các hồ sơ quan trọng từ nay cho đến ngày bầu cử.Về cơ bản, chính sách Ấn Độ-Thái Bình Dương của Mỹ trong mắt đảng Cộng Sản Trung Quốc là công cụ để Washington « kềm tỏa đà phát triển chính đáng » của Trung Quốc trong khu vực này. Do vậy, từ thượng đỉnh Bali đến San Francisco, ông Tập Cận Bình lại càng quyết tâm hơn trong việc thực hiện « tham vọng tự chủ về quân sự và công nghệ » với Hoa Kỳ như bà Collen Cottle, một cựu nhân viên tình báo CIA được tờ USAToday (ngày 18/11/2023) trích dẫn.Nhà báo Pierre Antoine Donet, từng điều hành chi nhánh của hãng tin Pháp AFP tại Bắc Kinh, loại bỏ khả năng Mỹ và Trung Quốc « sưởi ấm quan hệ » một cách lâu dài. Chẳng qua là Washington vẫn cần hàng rẻ của Trung Quốc, Bắc Kinh thì cần công nghệ và thị trường của Mỹ để phát triển. Nhờ có sự « phụ thuộc đó », hai siêu cường thế giới này tránh lao vào một cuộc đối đầu về mặt quân sự.  

- Chủ tịch nước Võ Văn Thưởng, phu nhân và đoàn đại biểu cấp cao nước ta kết thúc tốt đẹp chuyến tham dự Tuần lễ Cấp cao Diễn đàn Hợp tác kinh tế châu Á-Thái Bình Dương (APEC) 2023, kết hợp hoạt động song phương tại Hoa Kỳ- Thủ tướng Phạm Minh Chính làm việc với Ban Thường vụ Tỉnh ủy Lai Châu về nhiệm vụ phát triển kinh tế-xã hội của địa phương- Chủ tịch Quốc hội Vương Đình Huệ dự Lễ Kỷ niệm 60 năm thành lập Học viện Tài chính- Lễ tưởng niệm các nạn nhân tử vong do tai nạn giao thông diễn ra tối nay nhằm nhắc nhở mọi người về tầm quan trọng của việc tuân thủ quy định pháp luật trật tự an toàn giao thông- Nhiều hoạt động biểu tình kêu gọi ngừng bắn và tìm giải pháp hòa bình cho cuộc xung đột giữa Israel và Hamas- Hội nghị thường niên trong khuôn khổ sáng kiến Nhóm các nền kinh tế phát triển và mới nổi (G20) gắn kết với châu Phi với kỳ vọng thu hút mạnh mẽ các nhà đầu tư đến với thị trường châu Phi Chủ đề : nạn nhân, giao thông, tưởng niệm --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/vov1thoisu0/support

The S&P 500 rose on Friday and clinched a third straight winning week amid a red-hot November rally.The broader index added 0.13% to settle at 4,514.02. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day higher by 0.01%, or 1.81 points, closing at 34,947.28. The Nasdaq Composite crept up by 0.08% to end the session at 14,125.48.The major averages each notched their third straight positive week. The S&P 500 added 2.2%, while the Nasdaq jumped about 2.4%. The Dow closed the week with a 1.9% advance. This is the first three-week win streak for the Dow and S&P 500 since July, and the first since June for the Nasdaq.ASX SPI 200 up 28 points. Wall St Week Ahead-After breathtaking surge, US stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing.ASX to rise; energy stocks in focus after oil boost. OPEC meeting Nov 26th.Israel-Hamas hostage deal edges closer despite fierce fighting in Gaza.Argentina votes in nail-biter election with libertarian slight favourite.Germany, France and Italy reach agreement on future AI regulation.SpaceX Starship launch failed minutes after reaching space.G20-led summit for Africa highlights renewed interest in fast-growing continent.Finland's Olkiluoto 3 - B3 nuclear reactor is expected to restart.Australian Forrests' Tattarang acquires 'iconic' hat company Akubra.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

Mr Yeong Zee Kin holds a Master of Laws from Queen Mary University of London and completed his undergraduate law degree at the National University of Singapore. His experience as a Technology, Media and Telecommunications lawyer spans both the private and public sectors. He has spoken and published in areas relating to electronic evidence and intellectual property, as well as legal issues relating to Blockchain and AI deployment. Zee Kin is an internationally recognized expert on AI ethics. He spearheaded the development of Singapore's Model AI Governance Framework, which won the UNITU WSIS Prize in 2019. He is currently a member of the OECD Network of Experts on AI (ONE AI). In 2019, he was a member of the AI Group of Experts at the OECD (AIGO), which developed the OECD Principles on AI. These principles have been endorsed by the G20 in 2019. He was also an observer participant at the European Commission's High-Level Expert Group on AI, which fulfilled its mandate in June 2020Zee Kin is also a well-regarded expert on data privacy issues. He has contributed to publications on legal issues relating to data privacy and has spoken at many well-recognised international and domestic platforms on this topic.--In this interview, Zee Kin shares his insights on the legal challenges in the Era of Advanced AIZee Kin highlighted that with the latest AI innovations, the responsibility and legal issues remain largely consistent, but the tools and technology introduce different challenges.For instance, he shared that such concerns around content, child protection, intermediary behavior, data security, data protection, and cybercrime remain, while challenges such as detection of fake content has intensified due to increased tool accessibility and the scalability of threats. Referring to the "Getty vs. Stability AI" case, he shared that the interesting question is the use of copyrighted data to train AI models – which is not new, and the key is to establish a proper legal basis for using such data. Data lineage and the provenance of data have always been important in legal contexts. He also noted that these concerns have also surfaced during the recent governmental responses around the world to the latest AI innovations.Zee Kin also highlighted the challenges with defining terms such as "fairness," "transparency," and "repeatability" – varies by context, where expectations and priorities for AI differ based on its use, such as safety and predictability in medicine, and bias and fairness in personal data applications.Repeatability poses an additional challenge in Generative AI because every iteration of an image or summary will vary (**owing to Generative AI's statistical predictive nature).Zee Kin also shares his views of AI's impact on job security, nothing that there will be emerging opportunities for lawyers to use AI tools for efficiency and error reduction.Recorded at TechLaw Fest 2023, 21st Sept 2023, 3.30pm, Marina Bay Sands, Singapore.#mysecuritytv #cybersecurity #ai #law #ailawyer

Un año llevaban sin reunirse los dos hombres más poderosos del mundo, Joe Biden y Xi Jinping, exactamente desde la cumbre del G20 que se celebró en Bali en noviembre de 2022. Esta vez la reunión se celebrará en Estados Unidos, en la bahía de San Francisco en el marco de la cumbre de Cooperación Económica Asia-Pacífico. El encuentro es muy esperado porque las relaciones entre ambas potencias atraviesan un momento muy complicado, pero es poco probable que, más allá de las formalidades diplomáticas, se produzcan avances significativos. Eso sí, que se reúnan en persona siempre es bueno porque puede evitar que la relación se deteriore más de lo que ya lo está. De la última cumbre, la de Bali, salió un compromiso para que ambas partes cooperasen en una serie de asuntos relacionados con el comercio y la seguridad. Pero las buenas intenciones no tardaron en naufragar ante la cruda realidad. En febrero de este año fue avistado y derribado un globo espía chino que cruzó Estados Unidos de este a oeste. Aquello coincidió con un viaje que el secretario de Estado Antony Blinken tenía previsto realizar a Pekín. El viaje fue pospuesto en medio de acusaciones mutuas y se materializó finalmente cuatro meses después, en junio, cuando Blinken pudo reunirse brevemente con Xi Jinping. Desde entonces todo han sido malas palabras y reproches. El Gobierno chino acusa al estadounidense de perjudicar deliberadamente sus intereses al tiempo que Joe Biden se refería a Xi Jinping como un dictador. Los problemas y la desconfianza mutua no son cosa de ahora. Desde que en 2018 Donald Trump declarase una guerra comercial a China todo han sido desavenencias. En estos años Estados Unidos ha endurecido su política arancelaria y ha prohibido la exportación de ciertos tipos de semiconductores avanzados a China porque teme que vayan a darles uso militar. En respuesta China ha tomado represalias decretando una serie de restricciones sobre los minerales necesarios para la fabricación de chips y baterías. Pero los desencuentros no se han quedado ahí. En el frente militar, Estados Unidos ha denunciado en varias ocasiones que tanto la aviación como la armada china se han acercado peligrosamente a sus contrapartes estadounidenses. El trasfondo de estos acercamientos hay que ir a buscarlo al estrecho de Taiwán, un brazo de mar de unos 180 kilómetros de anchura que separa Taiwán de la República Popular China. El deseo de Xi Jinping es anexionar Taiwán, pero los taiwaneses no quieren y buscan la protección de Estados Unidos, que desde tiempos de la guerra fría les ha prometido en sucesivas ocasiones que garantizarán su independencia. El asunto de Taiwán volvió hace un año al primer plano de la actualidad con motivo de la guerra de Ucrania y desde entonces no lo ha abandonado. Este es uno de los temas candentes que separan a ambas potencias, pero no el único. Estados Unidos entra en año electoral, algo importante porque republicanos y demócratas casi en lo único que coinciden al 100% es en todo lo relativo a China. Los chinos, por su parte, no se encuentran en el mejor momento económico. La recuperación tras la pandemia ha resultado decepcionante y el régimen necesita crecimiento, algo que no tendrá si persisten los problemas internacionales. En La ContraRéplica: - La degradación de la democracia en España - Pancatalanismo - Manifestaciones contra la amnistía · Canal de Telegram: https://t.me/lacontracronica · “Hispanos. Breve historia de los pueblos de habla hispana”… https://amzn.to/428js1G · “La ContraHistoria de España. Auge, caída y vuelta a empezar de un país en 28 episodios”… https://amzn.to/3kXcZ6i · “Lutero, Calvino y Trento, la Reforma que no fue”… https://amzn.to/3shKOlK · “La ContraHistoria del comunismo”… https://amzn.to/39QP2KE Apoya La Contra en: · Patreon... https://www.patreon.com/diazvillanueva · iVoox... https://www.ivoox.com/podcast-contracronica_sq_f1267769_1.html · Paypal... https://www.paypal.me/diazvillanueva Sígueme en: · Web... https://diazvillanueva.com · Twitter... https://twitter.com/diazvillanueva · Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/fernandodiazvillanueva1/ · Instagram... https://www.instagram.com/diazvillanueva · Linkedin… https://www.linkedin.com/in/fernando-d%C3%ADaz-villanueva-7303865/ · Flickr... https://www.flickr.com/photos/147276463@N05/?/ · Pinterest... https://www.pinterest.com/fernandodiazvillanueva Encuentra mis libros en: · Amazon... https://www.amazon.es/Fernando-Diaz-Villanueva/e/B00J2ASBXM #FernandoDiazVillanueva #joebiden #xijinping Escucha el episodio completo en la app de iVoox, o descubre todo el catálogo de iVoox Originals

O Presidente dos Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, e o Presidente da China, Xi Jinping, encontraram-se pela última vez há um ano, na Cimeira do G20. Hoje têm uma reunião bilateral marcada em São Francisco, Califórnia, à margem da Cimeira de Cooperação Económica Ásia-Pacífico. A segurança é a questão central, mas a disputa económica está sempre presente. Neste episódio, conversamos com Raquel Vaz Pinto, professora da Universidade Nova, investigadora no IPRI, com a Política Externa e Estratégia chinesa, Grande Estratégia dos EUA e a Asia-Pacifico entre as suas áreas de investigação.    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The presidents of the US and China are meeting in person for the first time in a year, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group summit in San Francisco. We consider what could be on the agenda. Sales of electric vehicles remain strong despite the reduction in public incentives to buy them. We find out why. And we go to Wales to hear how the rise in shoplifting incidents is impacting a supermarket chain. Rahul Tandon discusses these and more business stories with two guests on opposite sides of the world: NPR's Emily Feng in Taipei and Cleo Capital's managing director Sarah Kunst in San Francisco. (Picture: U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping as they meet on the sidelines of the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022.Picture credit: Reuters)

Un año llevaban sin reunirse los dos hombres más poderosos del mundo, Joe Biden y Xi Jinping, exactamente desde la cumbre del G20 que se celebró en Bali en noviembre de 2022. Esta vez la reunión se celebrará en Estados Unidos, en la bahía de San Francisco en el marco de la cumbre de Cooperación Económica Asia-Pacífico. El encuentro es muy esperado porque las relaciones entre ambas potencias atraviesan un momento muy complicado, pero es poco probable que, más allá de las formalidades diplomáticas, se produzcan avances significativos. Eso sí, que se reúnan en persona siempre es bueno porque puede evitar que la relación se deteriore más de lo que ya lo está. De la última cumbre, la de Bali, salió un compromiso para que ambas partes cooperasen en una serie de asuntos relacionados con el comercio y la seguridad. Pero las buenas intenciones no tardaron en naufragar ante la cruda realidad. En febrero de este año fue avistado y derribado un globo espía chino que cruzó Estados Unidos de este a oeste. Aquello coincidió con un viaje que el secretario de Estado Antony Blinken tenía previsto realizar a Pekín. El viaje fue pospuesto en medio de acusaciones mutuas y se materializó finalmente cuatro meses después, en junio, cuando Blinken pudo reunirse brevemente con Xi Jinping. Desde entonces todo han sido malas palabras y reproches. El Gobierno chino acusa al estadounidense de perjudicar deliberadamente sus intereses al tiempo que Joe Biden se refería a Xi Jinping como un dictador. Los problemas y la desconfianza mutua no son cosa de ahora. Desde que en 2018 Donald Trump declarase una guerra comercial a China todo han sido desavenencias. En estos años Estados Unidos ha endurecido su política arancelaria y ha prohibido la exportación de ciertos tipos de semiconductores avanzados a China porque teme que vayan a darles uso militar. En respuesta China ha tomado represalias decretando una serie de restricciones sobre los minerales necesarios para la fabricación de chips y baterías. Pero los desencuentros no se han quedado ahí. En el frente militar, Estados Unidos ha denunciado en varias ocasiones que tanto la aviación como la armada china se han acercado peligrosamente a sus contrapartes estadounidenses. El trasfondo de estos acercamientos hay que ir a buscarlo al estrecho de Taiwán, un brazo de mar de unos 180 kilómetros de anchura que separa Taiwán de la República Popular China. El deseo de Xi Jinping es anexionar Taiwán, pero los taiwaneses no quieren y buscan la protección de Estados Unidos, que desde tiempos de la guerra fría les ha prometido en sucesivas ocasiones que garantizarán su independencia. El asunto de Taiwán volvió hace un año al primer plano de la actualidad con motivo de la guerra de Ucrania y desde entonces no lo ha abandonado. Este es uno de los temas candentes que separan a ambas potencias, pero no el único. Estados Unidos entra en año electoral, algo importante porque republicanos y demócratas casi en lo único que coinciden al 100% es en todo lo relativo a China. Los chinos, por su parte, no se encuentran en el mejor momento económico. La recuperación tras la pandemia ha resultado decepcionante y el régimen necesita crecimiento, algo que no tendrá si persisten los problemas internacionales. En La ContraRéplica: - La degradación de la democracia en España - Pancatalanismo - Manifestaciones contra la amnistía · Canal de Telegram: https://t.me/lacontracronica · “Hispanos. Breve historia de los pueblos de habla hispana”… https://amzn.to/428js1G · “La ContraHistoria de España. Auge, caída y vuelta a empezar de un país en 28 episodios”… https://amzn.to/3kXcZ6i · “Lutero, Calvino y Trento, la Reforma que no fue”… https://amzn.to/3shKOlK · “La ContraHistoria del comunismo”… https://amzn.to/39QP2KE Apoya La Contra en: · Patreon... https://www.patreon.com/diazvillanueva · iVoox... https://www.ivoox.com/podcast-contracronica_sq_f1267769_1.html · Paypal... https://www.paypal.me/diazvillanueva Sígueme en: · Web... https://diazvillanueva.com · Twitter... https://twitter.com/diazvillanueva · Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/fernandodiazvillanueva1/ · Instagram... https://www.instagram.com/diazvillanueva · Linkedin… https://www.linkedin.com/in/fernando-d%C3%ADaz-villanueva-7303865/ · Flickr... https://www.flickr.com/photos/147276463@N05/?/ · Pinterest... https://www.pinterest.com/fernandodiazvillanueva Encuentra mis libros en: · Amazon... https://www.amazon.es/Fernando-Diaz-Villanueva/e/B00J2ASBXM #FernandoDiazVillanueva #joebiden #xijinping

ASV prezidents Džo Baidens un Ķīnas līderis Sji Dzjiņpins tiksies Sanfrancisko. Rokādes Lielbritānijas valdībā. Aktualitātes analizē Rīgas Stradiņa universitātes Politikas zinātnes doktorantūras vadītāja, Ķīnas Studiju centra direktore, Latvijas Ārpolitikas institūta Āzijas programmas direktore Una Aleksandra Bērziņa Čerenkova un TV24 žurnālists Ansis Bogustovs. Ko var sarunāt ar Sji? Šodien, 15. novembrī, Sanfrancisko tiek atklāts kārtējais Āzijas un Klusā okeāna ekonomiskās sadarbības jeb APEC forums. Kā jau liecina nosaukums, šī Klusā okeāna akvatorijas sadarbības formāta mērķis ir ekonomiskās izaugsmes, investīviju un tirdzniecisko sakaru veicināšana. Forums tika iedibināts 1989. gadā, un sākotnēji tajā iesaistījās 11 dalībnieki: ASV, Austrālija, Bruneja, Filipīnas, Indonēzija, Japāna, Jaunzēlande, Kanāda, Dienvidkoreja, Malaizija, Singapūra un Taizeme. Nākamās desmitgades laikā pievienojās vēl desmit – Ķīna, Honkonga (tobrīd vēl britu koloniālais valdījums), Taivāna, Meksika, Papua-Jaungvineja, Čīle, Krievija, Peru un Vjetnama. Oficiālajā foruma protokolā tiek lietots apzīmējums „ekonomika”, nevis „dalībvalsts”, kas ļauj tajā piedalīties arī Honkongai un Taivānai, pēdējai gan ar nosaukumu „Ķīnas Taipeja” un ne kādas valsts amatpersonas pārstāvētai, ko nosaka kontinentālās Ķīnas nostāja Taivānas suverenitātes jautājumā. Šogad arī Krieviju pārstāv otrā ranga amatpersona – viens no premjerministra vietniekiem Aleksejs Overčuks. Gaidītākais notikums Sanfrancisko ir ārpus foruma pamatprogrammas – tā ir Savienoto Valstu un Ķīnas prezidentu Džo Baidena un Sji Dzjiņpina tikšanās. Iepriekšējo reizi abi aci pret aci runāja tieši pirms gada citā forumā – G20 valstu samitā. Starplaikā abu superlielvalstu attiecības spilgtinājuši tādi notikumi, kā ķīniešu spiegošanas zondes pārlidojums Savienoto Valstu teritorijai un tās notriekšana, ķīniešu hakeru veiktā Savienoto Valstu tirdzniecības ministres Džīnas Reimondo e-pasta sarakstes uzlaušana un Vašingtonas aizliegums eksportēt uz Ķīnu modernākās mikroshēmas. Siltumu šais attiecībās nevieš arī Pekinas nostāja Krievijas agresijas sakarā un militāro muskuļu demonstrēšana Taivānas virzienā. Kā norāda analītiķi, nekāds pēkšņs attiecību atkusnis Sanfrancisko neesot sagaidāms. Taču viņi arī izsakās, ka, ja tikšanās ļaus izvairīties no turpmākas attiecību pasliktināšanās abu lielvaru starpā, tas jau būs panākums. Visreālākā konkrētā vienošanās varētu būt abu valstu militāro resoru tiešas saziņas atjaunošana; Ķīna šo saziņu pārtrauca pērnvasar pēc Pārstāvju palātas spīkeres Nensijas Pelosi vizītes Taivānā. Kā norāda Vašingtonas administrācijas pārstāvji, prezidents Baidens sarunās pievērsīsies jautājumiem par Ķīnā ražoto bruņojuma detaļu piegādi Krievijai, par sankcionētās Krievijas un Irānas naftas iepirkšanu un iespējamu Ķīnas spiedienu uz Irānu, lai atturētu to no tālākas situācijas eskalācijas Tuvējos Austrumos. Tomēr Ķīnas autoritārā līdera gatavību nākt pretim šīm Vašingtonas gaidām, visdrīzāk, jāuzlūko ar skepsi. Kamerons atgriežas Pārmaiņas britu valdībā tika sagaidītas jau labu laiku. Pārāk daudzi no kabineta locekļiem premjerministram Riši Sunakam tika mantojumā no viņa priekšgājējas Lizas Trasas, un bija paredzams, ka agri vai vēlu toriju līderis pārdiegs valdību vairāk pa savam mēram. Tomēr pārmaiņas, kuras tika publiskotas pirmdien, dažā ziņā ir ekstravagantas. Tas noteikti sakāms par jauno ārlietu ministru Deividu Kameronu – Lielbritānijas valdības vadītāju no 2010. līdz 2016. gadam. Tieši viņš bija tas, kurš, breksitistu ietekmes spiests, piekrita liktenīgajam referendumam un demisionēja pēc tam, kad tas beidzās ar britu elektorāta lēmumu pamest Eiropas Savienību. Nav šaubu, ka viņa pieredze un sakari patiešām var lieti noderēt Sunaka valdībai, taču ekspremjera darbošanās viņam nesusi arī pāris reputācijas problēmas, t.sk. pārmetumus, ka Šrilankas galvaspilsētas Kolombo ostas attīstības projekts, kuru Kamerons aktīvi virzījis starptautiski, varētu radīt nozīmīgu Ķīnas ietekmes bāzi. Vēl viens problēmjautājums ir jaunā ārlietu resora vadītāja atskaitīšanās parlamentam. Kamerons ir Lordu palātas loceklis, un Parlamenta procedūra neparedz lordu iztaujāšanu apakšnamā. Jādomā, konkrētais katalizators valdības pārvedei bija vajadzība nomainīt līdzšinējo iekšlietu ministri Suellu Brāvermenu. Pagājušajā nedēļā viņa publicēja rakstu, kurā pārmeta Londonas policijai, ka tā adekvāti strikti kontrolējot labējo radikāļi publiskās akcijas, bet tikām caur pirkstiem skatoties uz līdzīgām izrīcībām no Gazas palestīniešu atbalstītāju puses. Tā kā publikācijas teksts, pretēji pieņemtajai kārtībai, nebija saskaņots ar valdības preses dienestu, ministrei tas maksāja portfeli. Viņas vietu jaunajā kabineta struktūrā ieņems līdzšinējais ārlietu ministrs Džeimss Kleverlijs. Līdzšinējais veselības ministrs Stīvens Bārklejs turpmāk vadīs vides resoru, savukārt finansiāli ietilpīgo veselības nozari pārraudzīs Viktorija Etkinsa, savulaik ministre Borisa Džonsona valdībā, bet Sunaka kabinetā ieņēma vienu no augstākajiem amatiem Finanšu ministrijā. Pārmaiņas skārušas vēl vairākus toriju valdības posteņus, un var secināt, ka tām ir kā gluži subjektīvi, tā plašāki politiski motīvi. Kā izsakās raidsabiedrības BBC politiskais redaktors Kriss Meisons: „Ja jūs esat Riši Sunaks un raugāties uz to, kas nupat izskatās pēc iespējamas sakāves vispārējās vēlēšanās, tad ir vērts mēģināt.” Var atgādināt, ka nākamajām vēlēšanām Apvienotajā Karalistē jānotiek ne vēlāk kā 2025. gada 25. janvārī. Sagatavoja Eduards Liniņš.  Eiropas Parlamenta granta projekta „Jaunā Eiropas nākotne” programma.* * Šī publikācija atspoguļo tikai materiāla veidošanā iesaistīto pušu viedokli. Eiropas Parlaments nav atbildīgs par tajā ietvertās informācijas jebkādu izmantošanu.

Un resumen de los acontecimientos ocurridos un día como hoy: 14 de noviembre 1918: Tomas Masaryk es elegido como el primer presidente de la República de Checoslovaquia en el Estado europeo creado días después del final de la Primera Guerra Mundial 1974: Yasser Arafat y Fidel Castro se encuentran en el aeropuerto de La Habana en la primera de varias visitas del líder de la Organización para la Liberación de Palestina a Cuba 1994: Eurostar realiza su primer viaje comercial en tren entre Inglaterra y Francia, a través del Eurotúnel 2008: Líderes mundiales se reúnen en Washington para la primera cumbre del G20 centrada en la resolución de una grave crisis financiera.

Nelle ultime settimane diverse banche italiane hanno comunicato che non pagheranno la cosiddetta tassa sugli extraprofitti, introdotta ad agosto per tassare i guadagni aggiuntivi ottenuti con l'aumento generalizzato dei tassi di interesse su mutui e prestiti. Le banche hanno deciso di sfruttare una possibilità prevista espressamente dalla legge come alternativa al pagamento: useranno due volte e mezzo la somma che avrebbero dovuto versare allo Stato per aumentare le loro riserve, una pratica che in sintesi serve a rendere i loro bilanci più solidi. Su queste riserve, le banche pagheranno le tasse o andranno a scalfire l'imponibile? In queste ore si sta svolgendo l'ultima tornata di audizioni davanti alle commissioni Bilancio di Camera e Senato. Oggi ha parlato in audizione il ministro dell Economia, Giancarlo Giorgetti. Dopodiché toccherà al governo fare una sintesi delle richieste emerse e mettere mano ad uno stringato pacchetto di emendamenti. Cosa pensa di questa manovra Tremonti? C'è abbastanza per stimolare la crescita e gli investimenti? L'ex ministro Tremonti è stato uno dei primi ad incentivare le politiche per l'offerta con la legge Tremonti Bis (2001), che prevede l'esclusione dall'imposizione sul reddito del 50% degli investimenti in formazione. Domani, infine, è previsto l'atteso incontro a San Francisco tra Biden e il presidente cinese Xi Jinping. Quella tra Usa e Cina è una relazione competitiva, che può facilmente virare verso il conflitto se non viene gestita bene, ha avvertito il consigliere americano per la Sicurezza nazionale Jake Sullivan. Tra i temi c'è anche varare un accordo per limitare produzione ed esportazione del Fentanyl. Nato come potente antidolorifico, è la droga preferita dai giovani negli Stati Uniti. Molti i casi di overdose anche in Italia. I trafficanti usano la sostanza per "tagliare" le partite di droga. Le dosi tagliate possono essere letali. C'è il pericolo di una nuova guerra dell'Oppio? Alcuni storici, soprattutto cinesi, considerano questo conflitto come l'inizio del secolo dell'umiliazione. Ne parliamo con Giulio Tremonti, deputato (FDI) e presidente della commissione Affari esteri ed europei della Camera, ex ministro dell'Economia governi Berlusconi, Aspen Institute Italia.Incontro Usa-Cina fra diplomazia e concorrenzaLo storico e atteso incontro tra il presidente cinese, Xi Jinping, e il presidente americano Joe Biden è alle porte (domani 15 novembre). Infatti Xi Jinping è partito da Pechino per raggiungere San Francisco, dove parteciperà al vertice Cina-Stati Uniti e al 30esimo incontro dei leader economici dell'Apec su invito del presidente americano. Assieme a Xi sono partiti il ministro degli Esteri, Wang Yi, e il membro del Comitato permanente dell'Ufficio politico centrale del partito comunista cinese Cai Qi. Biden, aveva detto "non vedere l'ora di incontrare il presidente Xi" e che sarebbe stato "un incontro costruttivo". Washington cerca da mesi di appianare le cose con Pechino, una necessità che ora diventa ancora più urgente dato lo scoppio della guerra tra Israele e Hamas a Gaza. Nello specifico, gli Stati Uniti vogliono che la Cina utilizzi la sua influenza sull'Iran per dissuadere Teheran dall'entrare in guerra ed evitare un conflitto regionale. Biden e Xi si sono incontrati l'ultima volta nel novembre dello scorso anno durante il G20 a Bali. In quell'occasione concordarono di mantenere contatti regolari dopo anni di deterioramento delle relazioni bilaterali a causa della guerra commerciale tra i due Paesi, della situazione a Taiwan o militari nel Mar Cinese Meridionale. Ma questi sforzi sono naufragati lo scorso febbraio, quando Washington ha accusato Pechino di aver inviato un pallone spia cinese nello spazio aereo statunitense. L'ultimo viaggio di Xi negli Stati Uniti è avvenuto nell'aprile 2017, quando incontrò l'allora presidente Donald Trump (2017-2021) in Florida. A parte la sua importantissima dimensione geopolitica, il vertice di domani di Joe Biden e Xi Jinping potrà avere un risultato consistente per la lotta che gli Stati Uniti da anni conducono contro l'epidemia di fentanyl, una droga 50 volte più potente dell'eroina che, secondo i dati dei Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, provoca la morte di oltre 150 persone al giorno per overdose. Approfondiamo il tema con Alessandro Plateroti, direttore Newsmondo.it.Altagamma, mercato del lusso cresce del 10% rispetto al 2022Il mercato globale del lusso registra una crescita dell'8-10% rispetto al 2022, raggiungendo la quota di 1.500 miliardi come valore complessivo del comparto. In particolare la spesa dei consumatori è tornata ai massimi storici, trainata da una ripresa della socialità e dei viaggi. Questo è quanto si evince dai dati dell'Osservatorio Altagamma, illustrati oggi al Teatro Lirico Giorgio Gaber di Milano. Anche il mercato dei beni di lusso personali cresce nel 2023, con un giro d'affari stimato di 362 miliardi entro la fine dell'anno (+4% sul 2022). Restano le incertezze sull'ultimo trimestre del 2023 considerate le variabili relative alla fiducia dei consumatori, alle tensioni macroeconomiche in Cina, al conflitto tra Israele e Gaza, agli scarsi segnali di ripresa negli Stati Uniti e, per l'Europa, a un aumento dei tassi di interesse e un'inflazione ancora elevata. Stessi elementi di incertezza che rimarranno nel 2024, anche se si stima una crescita delle marginalità delle imprese di circa +4%. Per quanto riguarda i consumatori, i cinesi restano i 'best performer' anche se a livelli inferiori rispetto agli anni pre Covid-19, con un +10%. Asiatici e giapponesi nel 2024 vedranno rispettivamente un incremento del 7% e del 5%, mentre sono gli europei quelli che risentiranno maggiormente. Sul fronte dei prodotti, invece, gli accessori continuano nel loro trend positivo: +6,5% per la pelletteria e +5% per le calzature. La cosmesi (+5%) è trainata dallo skin care, dal makeup e dai profumi di nicchia soprattutto negli Stati Uniti. Per l'abbigliamento si stima una crescita del 4% con la ripresa di un abbigliamento meno casual e prosegue il trend positivo della gioielleria (+5,5%) e degli orologi (+3,5%). Il canale retail - sia fisico che digitale - continua ad essere in crescita: i negozi fisici prevedono un +7,5% mentre per il retail digitale si prevede un +4,5% per il 2024. Ne parliamo con Stefania Lazzaroni, Direttrice generale Fondazione Altagamma.

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss our forecasts for G20 economic growth and inflation next year, and what this means for companies, lenders and governments.Speakers: Elena Duggar, MD-Credit Strategy; Madhavi Bokil, Senior VP-Credit StrategyHost: Sarah Carlson, Senior VP-SovereignRelated Research:Global Macro Outlook 2024-25: G-20 growth dynamics diverge amid ongoing global slowdown

習拜會可能將在APEC登場，對比去年的習拜會後，九合一選舉結果讓民進黨一敗塗地，原因之一就來自於習拜會對台灣定調，讓民進黨抗中保台的手舉不起來。中方這星期一口氣對美國下了大批的大豆採購，佔了史上單日最大訂單，美方也罕見參加進口博覽會，政治意味濃厚，中國在這時刻表面上是對美國服軟，但其實另有打算… －－－－以下訊息由 SoundOn 動態廣告贊助商提供－－－－ 什麼都漲，當然荷包也得跟著漲

In today's episode, I have the pleasure of sitting down with Lockie Cook. He's been the EY Entrepreneur of the Year for WA, represented Australia at the UN & G20. We chat about injuries, resilience, mental health, entrepreneurship, becoming a father and much more. A special thanks to our sponsor, BOOTH Training, for making this episode possible. This is BOOTHCAST – A dose of inspiration, one episode at a time. Let's dive in. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/boothcast/support

EP313 - Holiday 2023 Preview with Rob Garf of Salesforce Episode 313 is preview of Holiday 2023 with Rob Garf, Vice President and General Manager, Retail at Salesforce. This is Robs' fifth time on the show, having previously been on episodes 110, 248, 282, and 299. It's happened again. Your Halloween decorations have come down (or at least your pumpkin is not in good shape), you survived Amazon Prime Big Deal Days, and now you're getting ready to ditch your in-laws and enjoy one of the most exciting retail weeks of the year. Yes, it's time for Holiday 2023! This year, we've decided to do things a bit different by previewing the holiday in advance of Turkey 5. Rob Garf has kindly joined to walk us through Salesforce's e-commerce forecast for November and December, and we compare it to all the other forecasts out there (NRF, Deloitte, Bain, US Dept of Commerce). In addition to the top line forecasts, we touch on retail versus e-commerce, changing shape of the holiday, discounting climate, inventory and supply chain impacts, top performing categories, the economy, and the impact of rapidly growing Chinese brands (Temu, Shein, TikTok). Throughout this episode make liberal use of real-time data from Salesforce Shopping Insights HQ, which tracks how 1.5+ billion consumers are shaping shopping trends. You can see a real-time holiday dashboard, powered by Tableau so you can interact with the data yourself on the Salesforce Holiday Insights page. Episode 313 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday November 8th, 2023. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 313 being recorded on Wednesday November 8th 2023 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners Jason is 3:13 the lucky number I had the 13 is kind of on there so I think we'll count it. Jason: [0:48] It's a lot of threes. Scot: [0:50] Yeah yeah I think it's a primal have to get one of our research analyst to work on the okay so we are recording this in early November as Jason said so at that critical part of the retail calendar all the plans are laid the discounts are on the table Cyber Monday. Thanksgiving Black Friday everything's teed up and everyone's waiting in anticipation of what holiday is going to bring us this year. And we know longtime listeners will know that our holiday turkey five coverage with a lot of sprinkling of data is second to none in the industry and this year we're going to take it up a notch in past years we've had our friend of the show Rob Garf VP and GM for retail at Salesforce on after the turkey 5 give us a real-time view of what they saw and for those of you that have been with us very long time this is her Jason's mom primarily those were episodes 110 249 282 and 299 man that's quite a track record this year we are going to take it up and have a delicious rub Garf before and after holiday sandwich it's kind of like that turkey sandwich but we're going to kind of sample it here before we even even have Thanksgiving. Rob before I before I go on welcome back for the fifth and I think record time on the show. Rob: [2:11] Wow I love it this is I will have to call the Guinness book up and make sure we get this knocked in memory on this is fantastic it's always good to be here and even better Scott and Jason and first of all thank you for having me on doing a little bit of a preview because as you mention were normally crawling through the data talking about the holiday weekend and seeing where everything lands after the critical time period and it's fun to take a little bit of a sneak preview and look at what we're anticipating and what we're seeing going into as you mentioned one of the most critical times of the year. Jason: [2:45] I think you're exactly right Rob I don't know why we didn't think of this sooner I feel like they should have always been part of our holiday tradition. And I do feel like we're getting all of the Rob protein with none of the nasty carbs so that's like a. Particularly healthy Thanksgiving treat but Rob before we jump into all of the good data remind listeners what the heck it is you do for Salesforce and how you get all this juicy data. Rob: [3:13] Yeah that's awesome let's by the way the listeners decide you know how. Advantageous this is after the fact I hope it is and again we'll do our best so yeah and I've been I always thinking about it thinking into this conversation now at Salesforce for over 7 years but I came. To the CRM Leader by way of demand where and if you remember demandware now Commerce Cloud was the leader and the cloud space and we instrumented the platform early on to get access to everything that flows. Through our Cloud so you think about all the Taps all the clicks all the swipes. [3:48] Now we don't have any access to personally identifiable information but we bubble that up and it becomes really The Benchmark for what's happening in digital and over the years we've included. Things from marketing and Service as well to look at a more complete buyers Journey. [4:08] And it's been really fun each quarter we release our shopping index which is available on salesforce.com built on Tableau and it's interactive so you can slice and dice it by vertical and by geography and it really helps. Retailers gauge how they're doing vis-à-vis their peer set which of course is extremely important anytime of the year but certainly even more important during. The holiday week now I think there's one thing that I sometimes forget to say so I want to make sure right cover it now which is. Our index and by virtue of that our benchmarks are from a outside in perspective so they are a look at the entire industry, not just Salesforce data we've modeled this over the last 10 years since its Inception so it's really intended to look at. The overall industry and benchmarking how peers are doing rather than speaking to anything that Salesforce is doing so that's my quick infomercial but hopefully more than anything just a little bit of credibility as to where we get the data, what we do with it and most importantly the conversations were able to have similar to what we're doing here. Jason: [5:19] God so that that sounds perfect. I do want just a couple clarifying questions before we jump into the actual data because I know we're going to talk about holiday like what is your official definition of holiday what what dates are you looking at. Rob: [5:38] Yeah thanks for asking that's always an important question so we've defined it over the years as the complete November and December so that's our holiday our peak season look. And we look at in particular for again the holiday weekend I know you call it cyber five or thirty five, we have cyber week which starts the Tuesday before, American Thanksgiving and works its way through Cyber Monday it's just something we started from the beginning and 4y like to like, your rear comparisons we've kept that intact so in on referencing cyber week or cyber five it's really looking at those, those seven days now of course the definition by some has been elongated and I hope we'll get into that in terms of when does the official real demand start but to answer your question straight on Jason it's for us at Salesforce November December. Jason: [6:27] Got it and so for historical purposes you've always been located in November December and then you're predominantly or exclusively focused on digital sales so you're you're reporting on what actually happened and forecasting what you think is going to happen in terms of e-commerce sales but unless I had this wrong you guys don't put a flag in the ground on on what you think is going to happen in brick-and-mortar is that true. Rob: [6:50] That is accurate now we do kind of go on the fringes a little bit because the bleeding between online or the blurring I should say between online and offline so we do have, data on buy online pick up at store we do have data on returns as well which is by virtue of, definition multi-channel omni-channel type of process but we don't put a stake in the ground because we just don't have the intrinsic data to be able to bubble that up and provide on the actuals. Jason: [7:20] Sure and then one other fun fact you reference the shopping index and you always have like the quarterly recap on there but I think. For sure during holidays and I think you're going to tell me your round you actually have a real-time dashboard up there so it's kind of a fun thing during the individual days of cyber week to kind of pop in and see see what's going on after your family Thanksgiving dinner to see if you're still going to have a retail job when this is all over. Rob: [7:50] Yeah yeah we do exactly so during particularly cyber week each morning the team is getting up super early as you can imagine and work around through the data and we're updating in real-time the data from the previous day and so for any retailer who is looking for the latest and greatest certainly by I would say 10:00 eastern time at the latest you will get that and see that up there we do have many customers who do use that in there Roundtable boardroom discussions each day to understand how they're doing it repairing it and more than anything Jason truth be told we need to get it up that early because our boss this guy named Marc benioff is typically texting us saying where's the data because I want to tweet it so yeah as much of a motivator as anything else. Scot: [8:40] Always fun when you get the text from The Seer. Jason: [8:44] Slack's slacks the he sends wax not to. Scot: [8:48] A slacks yes sorry I was off I was off brand for a second yeah he Einsteins it to his his Einstein slacks you. You mentioned one follow-up on that you mentioned American Thanksgiving that prompted me to ask this is largely we're talking about the u.s. here primarily we're not going to this is an international I'm sure you can go International but, we're doing more us right. Rob: [9:12] Yeah I'm prepared to do whatever I thought we'd probably borrow a bit more into us but we do have Global numbers but yeah. Scot: [9:20] Okay we have time Jason's obsessed with these Chinese companies I'm sure he'll ask you some questions so. Rob: [9:25] That's fair that wouldn't. Scot: [9:26] Yeah he gets all his clothes from she in any way. So before we dive into the topic du jour which is this year's holiday 2023 maybe recap for listeners kind of that you know. I know we had you on but the dust has settled and I'm sure you're going back and looking at it now with holiday 22 what were some of the bullet items that you kind of you you're thinking about as we go into 23. Rob: [9:56] Scot you don't think the listeners have totally taken This to Memory what we talked about last November 29 come on. You're probably right that's fine yeah I get it not all of us live and breathe this but yeah let's bring us back and you know actually if I could just for a minute, to put 2022 in context you need to think a little bit about 2021 and let me just spend a minute there and then I'll fast forward to 22 which is if you remember some of us don't want to in 2021 it was truly one of the first times that demand, actually got pulled forward in the holiday season and the reason was. The first mile delivery issues were stuck if you remember so many products were stuck in the port in the US of a Lala. The containers if they even got to the port or having a difficult time getting off the ship in into the domestic supply chain and people saw a headline after headline when I say people like consumers by or shoppers and they realized if they didn't buy early in the season. [11:03] They might not get the product that they actually want because in the past they would just have a waiting game and wait for the last and final deal and so. Demand got pulled earlier in the season and oh by the way retailers didn't have to Discount as steep as they normally do so going into 2020 retailers thought. [11:26] All of a sudden there would be this magical shift to Consumers buying earlier in the year and you know what that just didn't happen, there was actually a really good point of why that didn't happen when you look at the first two weeks of November we saw some of the lowest discounting rates that we typically see during the holiday season and because of these lackluster deals. People really didn't buy anything they waited and they again went back to their normal buying Behavior. One other by-product out of that is those that did by early. [12:04] We saw that they actually return the product during cyber week cyber week last year 2022 at some of the highest. Return rates during that week of the entire season people were doing their own price adjustments if they bought the product earlier in the year and realize they could have gotten a better price so there's like. I don't know how you calculate a triple or quadruple whammy on the bottom line that retailer saw. Because they were hoping to chase the deals earlier or wait I should say for the deals into the season and consumers just didn't bite. Overall and then I'll stop talking for a second here is what we saw. For let's just take cyber week as an example in the u.s. we saw a nine percent year-over-year growth growth online and globally we saw a 2% growth so us was really buoying up the global number there but a lot of that Sales Online happened right before cyber week and through the Thanksgiving holiday. Scot: [13:07] Got it it's kind of coming back to me I Remember You coining The Phrase discount chicken I remembered that is that right remember. Rob: [13:15] Yeah yeah yeah totally and thank you so discount chicken you know for the first time that we saw, retailers won the game of discount chicken last year I'm sorry in 2021 they tried to win again in 2022 but it just didn't happen consumers are really wise the real patient and now especially as they're seeing headwinds in their economic future there's definitely searching out for better and best deals. Scot: [13:46] Yeah this this kind of goes back to our data question it just occurred to me as we were talking about this obviously the macroeconomic is different now does that factor into your when you swirl all this together and you guys put together a funk forecast is that is that an input. Rob: [14:00] Absolutely yeah for sure and another piece that we look at very closely because it's driven so much of the growth over the last two years is inflation as well and so when you look at the last two years much of the online and growth is from increased prices not increased demand so people are just not getting as much from their dollar because of those increases we're starting to see that settle down the last couple quarters which is good news we're not quite seeing in Europe by the way but here in the US and so we're hoping, some of the growth will come from We're anticipating I should say some of the growth this holiday season coming from actual increase demand. Jason: [14:41] God so I want to I want to jump in the big reveal but a quick quiz first if you don't mind so last year us e-commerce growth nine percent G20 21 was also an incredibly abnormal year do you remember what the actual number you guys got for 2021 was. Rob: [15:00] For cyber week that's a. Jason: [15:02] No or sorry for holiday if you don't have it it's fine. Rob: [15:05] Overall holiday for 2021 was nine percent but that's Global so I'd have to go back to see what it was with the US. Jason: [15:13] No problem but so last year in the u.s. nine percent growth which was outlier for because Global growth was quite a bit softer. And so now here we are getting ready for Holiday 23 and what what do you think's going to happen when how much stuff we're going to sell online in November and December of twenty three in the US. Rob: [15:35] Yeah, so we're anticipating here in the US basically flat online growth and anybody I'm talking to is candidly quite okay with that and let me tell you why they're not overly bullish about significant growth online this year. For two major factors one is, we actually looked at the kegger over the last couple of years going back to 2019 and if things play out the way we anticipate we're still looking at for the holiday season compound annual growth of somewhere between 20 and 25% and so we're really where we are better than where we've been in 2019 year-over-year so we're you know we've been looking at these data points for quite some time during the holiday season if we're going to do 10 to 12 to 13 percent year-over-year growth online we're feeling really good and we've seen the average over the last couple of years come out well over that so there's a baseline that we're still needing to consider as we think about growth the second factor is. [16:50] The store. And we can't forget about even though our data doesn't explicitly account for that what we've seen in our data is that people are still going online very, aggressively meaning traffic quarter-over-quarter year-over-year is still really strong however what we're finding is people are then doing what they've naturally done for a long time which is in many cases then go into the store to actually make the purchase and so it doesn't necessarily tell when you look at flat growth year over year for the holiday season the entire story we're still feeling really good about it what helps us by the way one more caveat that I'll put in there and I should have mentioned it's got just a moment ago when you asked how we get to the numbers one of the key influences, is what does it October look like and particularly prime or we should I was about to say Prime day but the prime big deal days and so what we've seen when it first came out a nice halo effect. And we still see a halo effect certainly during the dog days of summer in July since the Inception of prime day. What was that 56 years ago but we although we saw bumps in the early part when it. First was established in October there wasn't a significant halo effect that happened during Pride a meaning those. [18:18] Not named Amazon during the October event we saw nice traffic we though saw really low discount rates once again so people were being patient they're biding their time and so we are seeing some nice add to cart rates as well so we saw people were poking around they were doing their research they were starting to. Think about what their holiday gifting this look like but they were waiting and so that's my long way of saying we're anticipating a fairly moderate holiday but we're not at all discouraged by what we. Jason: [18:54] Totally fair and so and I want to put your forecast in a little bit of context but before I do you kind of open the door on this whole October and shape of holiday thing like hey. Super useful to have historical consistency so I'm glad you guys report. The same time period every year right like I'm by no means proposing that everyone should change periods but it is interesting there's there's a lot more promotional activity. Happening in October than was true 10 years ago right and in very specific ways you convoluted 22 years ago, Prime day was cancelled in summer and happened in October and then they move prom date back to Summer but they added this second prime day and put a lot more marketing behind it this year than last year so and every other retailer on the planet. Counter programs against that that holiday and so there's been a. An increasing amount of pressure to pull sales in in October and then on the flip side a lot of people feel like holiday doesn't really end. And told mid to late January and there's a variety of reasons for that but one very particular one heck of a lot of gift cards get sold and gifted during holidays and they get redeemed. [20:18] Predominantly in January and so I guess I'm just kind of curious I'm not sure you would have necessary data behind this but like it does feel like holiday is flattening out and I know you guys pay particular attention to cyber week which you know is still a huge outlier and obviously we see way more sales on Cyber week than a traditional holiday week but. As a. Relation to the total holiday period it does feel like that spike is starting to flatten out a little bit like do you see holiday getting kind of stretched and flattened. Rob: [20:53] Yeah I love the question in this I feel like we could look back you know in a year or 25 years and do a whole. [21:03] I don't know extensive research project around how, people in mindset and shopping has evolved because it has and of course the pandemic had a big accelerator to that what we've seen in our data Jason is there has been a flattening out throughout cyber week meeting the big Spikes have typically been Black Friday and Cyber Monday and those still remain the two largest online days of the entire year but we are seeing a flattening out throughout the entire week but we haven't seen a lot of the sales, when it's all said and done pulled into October we do see a little bit of a blip in and around, the big deal days and we actually to your point other retailers have preempted the sales and we saw that in July as well meaning doing sales events the week before and it does draw them up, some traffic but we haven't seen a large portion being pulled into that time period what I will also say again lackluster discounts played a big role we're anticipating, comparing big deal days to cyber week cyber week we'll see about a 40% higher discounting rate. [22:28] Then what we witnessed just a couple of weeks ago in October you are totally right by the way that. [22:37] The holiday season does definitely extend through December and into January that's why most every retailer has there. You know fiscal year ending in January so they can really reconcile and get out from under what happened in the holiday not just gift cards but all of the returns and exchanges that invariably happen as well but at the end of the day just put a nice little underscore here is in 2020 and 2021 we did see a bit of pulling forward into October a couple of percentage points of sales but we're forecasting that 25% of all holiday sales will happen again as we Define it the 7-Day is of cyber week. Jason: [23:27] Interesting very cool okay so before we dive into some more granular topics I do you want to put the 9% in context and some listeners will be familiar with Nate silver and his poll of polls in the the kind of boring, boring a political forecast but the way more interesting March Madness forecast so I like to fancy myself as the Nate silver of e-commerce and so I do try to watch all of this data and huge caveat, nobody's data is Apples to Apples right so it's not really a matter of though this number doesn't match up to this number. Everyone has a slightly different definition of what e-commerce means everyone has a slightly different set of dates that they're looking at and they have different methodologies right so your methodology I feel like you get perfectly accurate data from a slice of the market right like there's there's no like. Human. [24:30] Are introducing your data because it's coming right from the systems and that the challenge for you guys is to take your slice and extend that to the the entire world of retail. The and I feel like you guys do that really well. So another data source that of course people are sick of me talking about is the US Department of Commerce which are these like surveys that they force retailers to fill out and. There's. Entirely different challenges and flaws in their survey methodology and how they defined e-commerce but just to kind of put things in perspective. I'm going to talk about they give us both brick-and-mortar and e-commerce data and so I pulled right before a show I pulled their data for the historical averages of November and December and so for the 27 years before covid-19. November and December sales grew, 3.8 5% per year so that's brick-and-mortar that's not related to the number you gave it all so average retail growth in that States of America / the US Department of Commerce in November and December three point eight five percent so and then I remind people the three covid years 20 21 and 22. [25:45] Were the greatest three years in the history of retail right because we didn't let anyone spend any money on travel and we mailed 10 trillion dollars to every man woman and child in America, to spend and so via the US Department of Commerce data 2020 Drew 9.2 percent. [26:04] 20:21 Drew 12.5 percent in 2020 to grew 5.4% so three straight years of, way over the historical average growth right and then using that same methodology they US Department of Commerce reports internet sales I'm way more skeptical of their internet sales because of the methodology in the way they Define it but just to put it in perspective. [26:32] For the 27 years before covid they have e-commerce growing eleven point two five percent a year and so then 2020 when everyone was locked in the house and not going to retail we had this monster year e-commerce group 35% in November and December from their data and then the following year because there was sort of a rebound and a return into two brick-and-mortar sales e-commerce sales were actually lower than the industry average so 2021 they had sales at 10.5% so a little bit off of the historical average and then last year they were the softest of all they were seven point six eight percent which is the slowest e-commerce growth in Holiday in the last 30 years so that's just kind of an interesting context right so the orders of magnitude are all right you had nine percent growth last year they had seven point six percent growth they don't forecast of course and so then I start looking at the forecast and a big forecast that comes out every year we're all friends of the NRF here and there in RF members the NRF just did their holiday forecast their forecasting brick-and-mortar growing three to four percent so. [27:45] Pretty much in line with that historical average that's a deceleration from last year which was 5.4% and they're forecasting internet sales of 7.9 percent so they're kind of perfectly splitting the difference between the US Department of Commerce and Salesforce for whatever that's worth by pretty pretty broad range and so that just kind of passes my quick sanity check Deloitte also does a forecast now deloitte's forecast is a different time range they consider holiday November to January and they're forecasting brick-and-mortar 3.5 to four point six percent so a little more optimistic and they're forecasting e-commerce at ten point three to twelve point eight percent so again a little more optimistic and then Bain did a forecast this year and they have three percent brick-and-mortar so I just wanted to throw that out there that most people are expecting this kind of three to four percent brick-and-mortar growth and this kind of we'll call it eight to eleven percent e-commerce growth. Rob: [28:51] Yeah and I would say given what you just talked about. Others a bit more bullish on the e-commerce growth than we are but I think directionally both brick and mortar and e-commerce are telling a very similar story which is e-commerce is still alive and kicking but it now has to be looked at in the context of brick and mortar and I think there's a lot of factors in that that actually will make the reporting moving forward even more difficult it is making it difficult and Jason you and I have talked about this before it's just the attribution models because it's not just about last-click anymore especially as people might you know in many cases go online and then go into the store where's that last click and how is that I'd be factored so everything from. [29:38] What we had anticipated in seeing around, you know 60% of digital sales now influenced by the physical store because the associate is driving demand through, customer service or client telling or social media or they're fulfilling Demand with being able to, you know pick pack and ship and online order. Or what's happening in digital as well in terms of people buying online and then picking up in or around the store so I think what is super interesting. In addition to what you said is how these metrics might evolve over time because it will depend a lot on, by retailer who's getting the credit and I know that's something that's been talked about for quite some time but literally how to is it how is it being accounted for and what does that do to how their reporting the numbers. Jason: [30:33] Yeah couldn't agree more and just 11 sort of example to illustrate that 11 kind of category that sold almost no meaningful volume online before the pandemic was grocery right second biggest category of consumer spending but none of it was online before the pandemic now depending on how you count ten to twelve percent of its online and guess what it all gets attributed as store sales right because it all it's all bananas that are getting delivered from a store and you know so 100% of instacart sales look like store sales to the retailer. And so it like I agree with you it's just it's just getting more and more convoluted. Rob: [31:14] Yeah well it's an interesting point around grocery you know our data showed in 2020 and most of 2021 we saw Triple digit growth year over year because of what you just talked about you just wouldn't ordinarily or historically by groceries online what drove a lot of that and what I think will drive Behavior moving forward is in 2020 we saw a 40-percent increase of net new. Digital Shoppers so these are people that hang out online but they wouldn't click the buy button and so a lot of those people now want to go back into the store but they're using digital they're using their phone in particular to really be that connective tissue. Scot: [31:55] What's a continue to peel the onion here you hit on this a little bit but tell us more about what you think is coming up in the 2023 cyber week for example if I recall last year Cyber Monday was the biggest e-commerce Day Ever set, is that did you guys agree with that or what's a my misremembering. Rob: [32:14] Yeah yeah so we actually have seen Black Friday actually. Bust up to the largest I know that's kind of hard to how others have looked at it but they're both really strong and we anticipate that being the case again again though we are seeing a bit of smoothing out of demand throughout the seven days. [32:36] Particularly on phones and I guess that's not a big butt when we weren't traveling we saw the Resurgence of you know iPads and tablets and actual regular computers especially when you get nice groovy one Scott like you did just recently but anyways I am getting distracted here by your awesome new computer but. What we are now seeing though is I move back to mobile and what we saw also during Thanksgiving a really strong traffic particularly local times between 4:00 and 8:00 if you think about it that's essentially when people are finishing their Thanksgiving Neil and they need a little break there sitting on their couch and they pull out their phone and so we're seeing a lot of traffic. Via Mobile and social as well by the way we are anticipating and we predicted this going back in June that we're going to see. Traffic via social be at a 10 times higher rate. Than traditional marketing so there's a lot of budget being pushed towards that media and we're seeing. [33:49] A lot of success there now they're still a bit of a gap in terms of conversion rate through that channel but again if you connect the dots mobile. And social happening over cyber week in particular on Thanksgiving it's going to be really strong and we're seeing again retailers lean into that. Scot: [34:10] So Black Friday was bigger growth last year or bigger absolute dollars or both. Rob: [34:18] For us it was biggest absolute dollars the growth was essentially spot-on for both Cyber Monday and Black Friday. Scot: [34:28] Jason and I'm assuming that did other people say it was Cyber Monday or it was at all. Jason: [34:32] Yeah they're they're different different folks had that different Peak yeah so but. Scot: [34:39] Controversy in e-commerce I love it. Jason: [34:41] Yeah controversy and they're getting closer together like they're worth in the early days. E-commerce Cyber Monday was a giant Tower and no one had internet access on Black Friday like that that could really is no longer the case. Scot: [34:55] Yeah well rip Cyber Monday cool I don't have any follow-ups Jason's Europe. Jason: [35:03] Awesome so. I want to jump into one of the other topics you introduced a little earlier so far we've been mostly topping up talking about Top Line which is a kind of easy way to think about this and it's you know it's a it's a kind of easy way to get your brain around it, at the end of the day retailers care a lot more about bottom line and a huge impact on holiday bottom of line is how aggressively in deeply folks have to Discount in order to achieve those sales so, are you guys like what do you forecast I don't know if you have a formal forecast for discounts but what what should people expect from discounting this year versus last year and what what are the trends there. Rob: [35:46] Yeah yeah yeah this is good because I missed a point before that I want to make as a relates to Discount and so this will give me a good opportunity to bring that up but still has to go right at that Jason we're forecasting on average a. Thirty percent discount rate throughout cyber week and again to put that in perspective it was 20% here in the US during the October event for. Prime big deal days again we look at the entire industry not just Amazon as a relates to that and so we're seeing a much more aggressive, discount rate now it's going to differ obviously by different segments you're not seeing as high in luxury as an example we do anticipate for tour toys and a consumer electronics which have been a bit of a softer category over the last 12 months again especially because because of the high Baseline they had because of the growth over 2020 2021 but we're also seeing and this goes back to the pulling forward of demand. Is more and more retailers are providing. [36:55] Black Friday deals throughout the course of November and. What's different in the past was it was fairly opaque in terms of we're giving you deals but we're not really sure those are going to be the best deals right and though we're seeing now much more transparency there's one major retailer that I'm sure you can guess who's doing Black Friday deals throughout the course of November and they are guaranteeing price matches. If for some reason they do go lower and they are also offering buy now pay later so you can commit to getting the product so you don't miss out on it but you can then pay over time and so what really came to life for me in this topic was we were doing a round table. [37:47] In Toronto in June and one of the attendees and she talked about this again at dreamforce in. September so I feel comfortable talking about it is a digital executive from Desi mm which is a cool health and cosmetics and Beauty brand that also has two other brands one called the ordinary and they have something that they've been doing for quite some time calling it, slow vember and their whole point is don't cause any urgency but rather. Make it a more relaxed buying experience and their point is throughout the course of all of November we're going to provide the same exact discount no matter when. And if you buy it and so we're seeing that a bit more and more some of it is coming by way of. [38:38] Early Access or exclusivity but also again extending and providing visibility, part of it is again trying to create that confidence that you're getting the best and final deal and also by the way you talk about the bottom line Jason. Is trying to reduce the Deluge of returns that often happen a lot of retailers. Are changing 88 percent according to our research are changing their returns policies and that's going to be a. Big risk and what and how that impacts holiday purchases this year. Jason: [39:13] Yeah you know it's funny there's so many moving Parts it's so complicated you think about like what a big impact inflation had on last holiday and you know good news like it seems like inflation is going to be lower this holiday. Consumer was in a better economic position last year than it seems like they're getting their sure we're seeing credit and defaults and things like that start start to creep up so there's there's just all these moving Parts but one thing I think a lot of people lose sight of is in the last three years predominately driven by the pandemic every retailer has completely reinvented their supply chain and their demand forecasting and I would argue everybody's way better at it now and they have way more agile Supply chains and there they're they're a lot more accurate with their level of inventory which means. They're more confident they're going to sell through their inventory and that changes their discount strategy like they're just all these moving parts that make it really hard to compare your over year when you know. Preview point the last three years sometimes we didn't have anything to sell and then the next year we had two years worth of stuff to say so. Rob: [40:24] I was just talking about that with an executive just earlier today and how retailers have gotten as you said better at demand forecasting. Better at Inventory management and I joke sometimes although I'm only half joking that supply chain has really come to the front office it's like really part of the customer experience at this point and has such an opportunity, to either negatively impact our hopefully positively impact. The customer experience especially when you're you know trying to find product after the shipping cut off window we're anticipating once again a huge uptick for those that have the ability for Consumer to buy online and. Pick it up in and around the store after. [41:06] The ship and cut off window we're seeing seven times higher growth rate for those that have that capability because essentially you're kind of shutting down your online doors if you cannot. Fulfill those orders after the fact and so but that requires to your point Jason like a lot of tuning. Around supply chain order management inventory oh and by the way store associates as well we have to. You know planned for that extra time that they'll have to take to fulfill that order will have to provide the right incentives and will have to give them the tools as well and I think retailers have gotten better at it. I don't think anybody's fully cracked the code but going back to your bottom line point last year for us the holiday theme was profitability and that doesn't go away I think people have gotten meaning retailers have gotten better at it but certainly always opportunity so I'm glad you called that out. Jason: [42:02] Yeah I like to say profit is cool again. Rob: [42:04] Providence cool again yeah. Jason: [42:06] The if you take nothing else away from this episode profit is cool. The the way it's funny like I joke about this but it's kind of serious when I started my career the the VP of supply chain probably started his career as a truck driver and and today that VP of supply chain like probably has a PHD in data science um so it's a that that occupation has dramatically changed the one other follow-up question. One of the cool things about your data set versus some of these other ones I look at is. You guys have real-time access to the data so as we record this we're eight days into November have you seen anything interesting or there any patterns that have stood out it you does it make you more confident in your forecast or in anything that's interesting for listeners to know. Rob: [43:01] Yeah we did look at the first couple days of November and also of course looked at October it's pretty consistent with what we saw, in Q3 in the US we're basically flat in terms of growth however traffic is up so traffic is up four percent. Orders are slightly down what we've seen which I think again is a very nice leading indicator is, product view rates have increased by 5% and add to cart month-over-month so September to October plus a little bit of November we've seen a slight uptick as well so what that's telling us is people are interested. They're doing their research. They're looking for the best deals they're understanding where the inventory is available and so that they're ready to make the move when they feel like they're getting the best and most value. Scot: [43:58] Cool so it sounds like if traffic's up in orders are down a lot of Tire kick in and kind of prepping and watching and making your list and you know could be the start of discount chicken 2.0 will see. Rob: [44:10] There you go exactly 2.0 I'm using that Scott I'm grabbing that I hope that's okay. Scot: [44:14] Discount chicken the chickens Strike Back. Rob: [44:18] Well and also I mean you talked about kick the tires so I think it's a good opportunity for a promo for spiffy at this point too so don't forget to get your gift cards as well right. Scot: [44:28] Yeah yeah we will be running some promos thanks. Jason: [44:30] And if you do kick your tires Scott can come to your house and replace them for you. Rob: [44:34] Exactly. Scot: [44:36] And shop for the new shoes online. Rob: [44:38] There you go I think there's a mash up there there's going to be spiffy and a DDOS coming together for anyways I don't know we'll leave that to the markers. Scot: [44:48] That's a good segue into my question in the predictions on category so I remember last year you guys had some interesting data on that does your prediction. Kind of data science get down into the category slicing of things or that's going to be more in the rearview. Rob: [45:06] Yeah no we certainly look at that we do it obviously based on what we've seen historically we're anticipating for the holiday. Active apparel active Footwear Health and Beauty being really strong so. You know we talk about the big number because that gets the headline in terms of essentially flat growth but we had tisza Pate some nice growth in those areas it's going to be a challenging partly because of comping as a relates to toys and gaming and consumer electronics if you think about that's just macro trend. People are looking for Comfort part of it is coming out of covid and maybe not all of us getting back into three piece suits but also when you feel a little bit of economic uncertainty I was listening to some Financial show. [46:02] While I was traveling over the last couple weeks and somebody put it as kind of the household PL or the household balance sheet you know when you're looking at that in your making choices you're taking more control of your finances which is happening people often migrate not only obviously to value, and safety they're looking at comfort and so there's something to be said for comfort and shoes and Footwear comfort, in apparel and almost the openness to be a bit more comfortable both in Social and in work situation so what are anticipating like I said active apparel active Footwear Health and Beauty being really strong luxury as well don't sleep on luxury they've been the most resilient category. In the pandemic and coming out of the pandemic and so that end of the market has held really well we're seeing a little bit. Of softness and what I'll call the aspirational luxury but as a whole that category is looking really strong and we anticipate it looking pretty strong, during the holiday as well. Scot: [47:12] Yeah this is old school but I remember a channel advisor going through 08-09 we were always shocked that luxury you know it's like the world is falling apart around us and people are like oh yeah I'll get a get a 400 dog and back it's gone. That part of the market just doesn't care that they're immune to those things I guess. Rob: [47:30] They're pretty resilient. Yeah I mean one other thing I'll throw in there just because I'm talking about it more and more with customers as we think about the holiday more as a. I think Bellwether to what will anticipate next year over the course and this is a global number but over the course of holiday were anticipating 194 billion dollars of online sales being influenced by a. Sorry are you thought you were going to get through this whole I know should I have not done that I'm sorry because you definitely that's on your bingo sheet. Jason: [48:07] Now I have to check the there's a I in this episode flag on iTunes. Rob: [48:11] Exactly well might get some more traffic that way so who knows but we find that super interesting most of it I want to like temper that. A lot because people are getting really excited about that headline is most of it will be from predictive a I like product recommendations which we've been doing for quite some time we're starting to see some early adoption of generative AI whether that's in email marketing with subject lines or body copy for that Saint product detail page with product descriptions or in service super interesting wood Gucci is doing and what they call a Gucci 9 their service center and teeing up responses for their agent to make them more efficient and allow them to scale but also stay on brand and so we'll see that a bit more but again a vast majority like I said it's around globally sixteen Seventeen percent of all sales will be influenced by AI this holiday. Jason: [49:06] That interesting so Rob we're almost out of time but I want to throw a super meaty 12 you for for a final question Scott was making fun of me but I am super interested in these Chinese brands that are capturing attention and share in the u.s. right and in particular that's that's Tim ooh which is has more traffic than Target more sales than Ed see in the United States Xi'an is the largest apparel reseller in the United States and then to a lesser extent Tick-Tock which has the vast majority of consumers attention in the United States and is now trying to sell stuff to people. What super interesting is it's not obvious those guys are all growing at Breakneck Pace much faster than your your nine percent growth number it's not obvious if or who they're taking share from so I'm curious of you if you have any POV it kind of seems like there they're inventing new demand or at the very least they're taking sure from brick-and-mortar it does not appear they're taking sure from the Amazons of the world. Rob: [50:09] Yeah that's awesome I'm glad you're addressing this I've just spent a couple weeks. In Europe I was in four different cities so talking to a lot of luxury Brands talking to a lot of traditional brick and mortars, and this is an area one of the executives put out Tech intermediary and I told him I would steal that and here you go I'm stealing it. Because I would say those that you just categorized are really wedging themselves in between the demand and the supply and they're creating a whole new platform where. It was just an originally with Tik-Tok and others about inspiration and now it's about purchase and so you know what we're seeing in Jason you and I have talked about this got 20 degree as well this idea of embedded Commerce or shopping at the edge. Where the buy button is being pushed up through the funnel on these delivery platforms again these Tech intermediaries I mean if you think about it they're almost like. The next generation of the shopping mall the shopping mall is created because of access because the highway here in the states and it created a place for people to hang out for people to get some food for people to shop. [51:16] People to socialize and because of that hey they could have tenants who that would then pay rent and sell stuff right and it's not dissimilar to what these Tech into mediators are doing in that they're monetizing their traffic I think they're coming after, the brick-and-mortar to a degree they're all so I wouldn't say creating more demand but fraying some of the man from. The brand sites because the brands are showing up there and so I would say there. [51:52] A little bit creating more demand but more than that they're kind of defraying the demand we've seen is. A high degree of growth thirty percent over the last couple of years of growth on these third-party intermediaries that we're talking about and they are taking from other platforms. Jason: [52:14] Interesting I don't know what the real answer is but I do know it's super interesting and important to pay attention to so I'm glad we brought it up but Rob that is going to have to be where we leave it because we have used up all of our allotted time I'm going to make sure to put a link to the Salesforce holiday dashboard in the show notes and super grateful for you taking at time and I hope you have a great Thanksgiving and we're looking forward to talking with you right after Cyber Monday. Rob: [52:45] Thanks Jason Banks got ya looking for doing a short couple weeks looking forward to talking to you then. Scot: [52:50] You robbed remind listeners where they can find your pontification xand and do they just Google the the index to find your daily things or like is there a quick URL that you guys have that. Rob: [53:04] Yeah you know to be honest with you the best way to is go to Google and put in shopping index Salesforce and you'll get to our holiday insights Hub so it not only has the dashboards but has all of the blog's were writing and all of the up-to-date analysis. Scot: [53:20] Cool well thanks we really appreciate you taking time out of your busy schedule to deliver this delicious holiday sandwich for our for Jason I in our listeners. Jason: [53:31] All right you guys be well and until next time happy commercing!

Izehi Anuge is an exceptional values educator and transformative leader dedicated to instilling and reintegrating values into young minds and society as a whole. Her decade-long journey has been focused on developing values-based resources and frameworks that empower current and future leaders and learners to align their character development goals with global participation, 21st Century Skills, and SDG Goals.As the visionary founder and managing director of Shape A Child, Izehi plays an integral role in ensuring revolutionized character and behavioral transformation in children from early years to young adulthood. Through Shape A Child, individuals, parents, and educational institutions achieve exceptional results by integrating values and 21st-century skills into their daily lives.Izehi has authored the captivating children's book series "Captain Excellence," a catalyst for cultivating a Values-Based consciousness in young readers. She has also developed innovative resources, including the first values-based children's jigsaw puzzle and discussion cards, accompanied by an engaging animated series. For teenagers, she has crafted the Gen Z Personal & Creative Excellence workbook. Izehi has also donated her books to over 13,000 underprivileged children and conducted community-based sensitization programs for leaders.Izehi has earned numerous accolades and recognition from local and global entities. She has been honored with a Recognition Award from Lagos State, an Outstanding Philanthropic Award from SHE Global 2022, and inclusion in the prestigious list of the 100 Most Impactful African Changemakers by the 2022 Humanitarian Awards Global. She proudly serves as a school ambassador for World Values Day and represents education delegates as part of the Values 20 Group at the G20 leaders' summit. Through her ambassadorship, Izehi is actively raising awareness for an education system that transcends traditional academic subjects, placing emphasis on values, equity, community culture, holistic well-being, and the development of 21st-century skills.Izehi Anuge stands at the forefront of a transformative movement, leveraging values-based education to empower minds, transform communities, and shape the future.