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A jobs surge puts the next few rate cuts into question; household spending still stagnant; Xero reports growth in both profit and revenue; and the Market Wrap. MARKET WRAP: ASX200: up 0.22%, 8,297 GOLD: $3,180 US/oz BITCOIN: $158,540 AUD Xero reported after tax profit growth of 30% to $227.8 million NZD, helping shares rise 4.7% to $182.05 The tech sector overall was stronger, with Wisetech rising 1.9% and Technology One up 1.3%. IAG rose 5.7% to $8.90 as it said it would acquire RAC Insurance in a $1.35 billion deal. The banks were all positive, with the Big Four all higher, and Macquarie recovering 1.2% after yesterday’s ASIC lawsuit. Changes at the top of Treasury Wine Estates was enough to tank its share price, falling 5.2% on the announcement of its next CEO. A deal between Lendlease with Britain’s The Crown Estate – owned by the royal family and King Chalres – for development projects didn’t wow the market. Shares slid 1.6% to $5.39. BHP, Fortescue and Rio Tinto marginally weaker. CURRENCY UPDATE: AUD/USD: 64.3 US cents AUD/GBP: 48.5 pence AUD/EUR: 57 Euro cents AUD/JPY: 95 Japanese yen AUD/NZD: 1.09 NZ dollars Host: Deb Knight Executive Producer: Tom Storey Technical Producer: Liam Achurch Publisher: Nine RadioSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are in for a day of significant announcements, but locally and internationally.But first up today, the overnight full dairy auction brought higher prices, up +4.6% in USD terms and up +3.0% in NZD terms. Of note, the butter price hit a new all-time record high of US$74992/tonne. Also, cheddar cheese rose a very sharp +12.0% from the prior full event, and the dominant WMP price was up a heady +6.2%. This has been a very positive outcome, even if it was on relatively low off-season volumes.There seemed to be two big background drivers. First, EU production is slipping and today's NZ auction prices seem to be equalising with European pricing. And secondly, there was a substantial increase in demand from Southeast Asian buyers, shifting from EU supply. Today's result will bring upside to the payout - if it is maintaintained in future events.Elsewhere, there was a good rise in US retail sales last week, up +6.9% from the same week a year ago in the Redbook survey. But as we have noted previously, it is now hard to separate the inflationary effect of the tariff taxes from volume gains. It is about now that the tariff-tax impact will start happening. All eyes are on Apple, because they won't be able to avoid price hikes much longer now.Retaliatory tariff taxes also juiced up US exports in both goods and services in March but it was minor and similar to February. US imports however shot up to a new all-time record high. So the American trade deficit also hit a new record exceeding -$140 bln for the monthNone of this is helping sentiment. The latest survey, this one the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index retreated in May from April when a gain was anticipated. It was at its lowest in seven months.Meanwhile, the US logistics managers index returned to more usual levels, but allowing it to do that were rises in inventory and freight costs, rather than the efficiency components.There was a well-supported US Treasury 10 year bond auction earlier today, and that delivered a median yield of 4.28% which was down -6 bps from the prior equivalent event a month ago.Tomorrow will be dominated by the US Fed's meeting outcome. Changed interest rates are unlikely, but there will be intense interest in how they view the present and future economic landscape.In Canada, the widely-watched local Ivey PMI turned into contraction in April.In China, the Caixin Services PMI expansion eased back in April, down from March's three-month high to be below analyst forecasts. This is now the softest expansion in their services sector in seven months. But this Caixin version reported a slightly faster expansion than the official version.There is a lot going on today, and amongst that we are expecting a significant Chinese briefing by their central bank and other regulators about new moves to respond to their economic pressures triggered by the tariff war.In Europe, their April services PMI didn't fall into contraction as expected. Rather it stayed just on the positive side. But it is an anemic expansion all the same.In Australia, household spending slipped in March from February, to be +3.5% higher than March 2024. Of special note was the very sharp -1.3% dive in Queensland.There was an even sharper retreat in building consents in Australia in March with a big -15% dive in consents for building apartments.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.31%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3414/oz, and up +US$101 from yesterday, and heading back towards its April 23 record high.Oil prices are firmer today, up +US$2 at just on US$59/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60 USc, up +40 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +0 bps at 92½ AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at 52.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 68 and up +10 bps. The Japanese yen has strengthened to limit the TWI-5 shift.The bitcoin price starts today down a mere -0.3% from yesterday at US$94,563. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.Join us at 10:45am for the release of the important March quarter jobs report for New Zealand. We are expecting no rise in employment and a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.3%. Variations from that might be market-moving.And then at 2pm we will be covering the RBNZ's half-yearly Financial Stability Report. This will be Christian Hawkesby's first big set piece presentation as Governor, a role he holds until at least October.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news reality and expectations seem to be diverging.But first up today we can report that the weekly dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought little-change in the WMP price from the previous full GDT auction in USD, while the SMP price rose +3.0% on that same basis, but basically a recovery. However things are reversed in NZD due to the weaker greenback, with the WMP price falling -1.4% and the SMP price only up +1.7% in our currency.Internationally, the IMF warned that rising US tariffs are marking the start of a new global era of slower growth. Since January, sweeping import duties and retaliation are raising trade barriers to levels not seen since the Great Depression. The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2025 to +2.8% from +3.3%, and sees continued weakness through 2026. The US will be among the hardest hit, with 2025 growth cut to +1.8% from +2.7%. Others like Mexico, Canada, China, and the EU will feel some effects but are likely to be minor compared to the US.Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary has told a private meeting the tariff war is unsustainable and will ease 'soon'. News of these remarks has led to a financial market rally. The problem remains however as neither Trump or China show any signs of backing down, and Bessent himself admitted that talks to de-escalate haven't even started. Markets might be getting ahead of themselves, as is Bessent.In the US, the Redbook retail impulse monitor was up +7.4% last week from the same week a year ago, the highest since the end of 2022. But this is becoming more of a measure of inflation than real sales activity as the tariff-taxes get passed through.The Richmond Fed's factory survey for the mid-Atlantic states reported weak results. It plummeted to -13 in April from -4 in the previous month, and well below market expectations. It is the sharpest decline in factory activity since November. Meanwhile their service sector gauge fell too.The latest and large US Treasury bond auction saw less support, but more than sufficient. However the median yield fell back to 3.74%, compared to the 3.94% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Canadian producer prices rose +4.7% in the year to March, but they are rising at a quicker pace in recent months. Canada is in its final week of election campaigning.Across the Pacific, Taiwanese export orders rose to the elevated level of US$53 bln in March, but they have been doing this for so long now that the year-on-year gain isn't special for them, 'only' up +12.5%.In the EU, consumer sentiment fell more than expected in April to its lowest level since November 2023.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, a -1 bp dip from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3398/oz, and down -US$19 from yesterday.Oil prices have risen +US$1 from yesterday to be now just under US$64/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.8 USc, down -20 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps at just on 52.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 68 and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,488 and up +5.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news gold has taken off, hitting yet another new all-time record high as fear stalks markets today and risk is definitely 'off'. But the NZD is rising. As we publish, markets are moving quickly so this snapshot will date just as quickly.But first in the US, mortgage applications fell -8.0% last week from the same week a year ago, with the refinance component down a rather sharp -12% on the same basis. These retreats came as benchmark mortgage rates rose +20 bps from a week agoA rush to buy cars ahead of the April tariff taxes delivered a boost to March retail sales that was even more than expected. Without those car sales, March retail was barely improved, and that does not adjust for price inflation so in volume terms, core retail sales are declining now. That trend will have global implications.American industrial production rose +1.3% from a year ago and this does adjust for price changes, so a small improvement. But it did shrink in March compared to February.Sentiment by American house builders was little-changed in March from February, but it is -21% lower than a year ago, and -13% lower than two years ago. In fact, excluding the pandemic, you have to go back to the GFC to find it this poor in a March month. That is not good because it is the start of their Spring selling season. Survey results show that tariff taxes are not being paid by importing countries, rather by the builders at this stage. As profits dive, that will be passed on to buyers next.There was a US Treasury 20 year bond auction earlier today and demand was slightly lower so the median yield rose to 4.75%. That is a rise from the 4.59% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Fed boss Powell was talking earlier today, saying that tariffs pose a real challenge to meet their dual inflation+jobs mandates. Inflation pressures are here now which argues for rate settings to rise, while economic growth is expected to leak away soon hurting jobs, arguing for a rate cut. He said they will "wait for greater clarity" to see where the dominant pressure comes from.These comments were not the magical thinking equity markets wanted to hear, and the realities of what faces the US economy has seen Wall Street pull back today. The Nasdaq is down -3.9%, the S&P500 down -2.8%. The Dow is down -1.8%. Gold is the safe-haven parking lot.In Canada, they are also waiting. Rather than continue with their rate cut track, the Bank of Canada has paused that track, keeping its policy rate at 2.75% as they too watch inflation rise and economic activity leak away. Interestingly, the TSX is only down -0.3%, hit far less than Wall Street.Across the Pacific, Japan's February machinery orders rebounded sharply, rising well above market expectations for a modest +0.8% increase to its highest level in a year. Manufacturing orders rose +3%, while non-manufacturing orders jumped +11.4%. This rise matches the separate machine tool order data for March which was also up sharply. And these first see prosperity ahead; The Reuters Tankan sentiment index rose sharply in April. But the same firms surveyed were gloomy for the months further out in 2025.China claimed its economy grew at a +5.4% rate in Q1-2025 (real), the same rate as for Q4-2024. They said retail sales were up +5.9% (nominal) in March from a year ago, better than the +4.0% in February and the best rise since December 2023 which benefited from a low base. They also said industrial production was up +7.7% (nominal) in March, far better than the +5.6% expected and far better than the +5.9% February gain. Electricity production was only up +1.8% (real) year on year in March, so either they are making spectacular energy efficiency gains, or something other than electricity powers their industry, or something doesn't add up. Anecdotal reports from many regions don't paint quite the picture these official stats paint.Meanwhile, Chinese new home prices in March edged lower from February, but there are range of changes in the 70 top Chinese cities. Still only Shanghai shows a year-on-year gain. Among the same cities, none show any gain for resales of existing houses and some declines are now as much as -11% (Jinhua, 7 mln population, and Tangshan, 7.7 mln).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27%, down another -6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today sharply higher at a new record of US$3337/oz, and up +US$108 from yesterday or +3.3%.Oil prices have firmed marginally, up +50 USc from yesterday to be now just over US$62/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just over US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.3 USc, up +20 bps from yesterday at this time and still the highest since mid-December. The fall of the USD embeds. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we down -40 bps from yesterday at just on 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 67.6 and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,854 and holding again, down less than -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. This podcast will take a break over the Easter holiday weekend and we will do this again Tuesday.

S&P futures and TSX are pointing slightly up. Asian equities inched higher in cautious trade with a 0.8% surge in Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are slightly up with India leading the gainers as its banks and auto stocks rallied on tariff reprieve news. European equity markets are mostly higher, with major indices up near 1%. Overnight, US 10-year yield was steady at 4.4% with the 2-year up 1 bP to 3.9%. US dollar unchanged, AUD higher, NZD at four-month high, yen and yuan flat. Oil went up and gold firmer. Crude futures are slightly higher, precious metals are also resuming their upward trend, base metals are mixed. Cryptocurrencies are higher.Companies mentioned: Apple, Lowe's Companies, Ryanair Holdings, NVIDIA Corp

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the gears of the global economy are grinding disconcertingly as the unnecessary trade war is prosecuted with little strategy and no apparent viable end game.But first up today, the latest full dairy auction brought an overall rise of +1.6% in USD. However, the fall and fall of the USD has completely undermined this result, with prices in NZD falling -2.1%. In USD all categories except SMP rose, and demand was strong from "North Asia" (ie China). Milk fats were in demand, while global milk supply is waning in the major producers, underpinning the demand. Pity about the currency effect.Inflation is showing up in the retail trade in the US, with the weekly Redbook index up +6.6% from the same week a year ago. There is no way that reflects a volume riseBusiness activity continued to fall in March in the New York Fed's factory survey in the New York state. New order levels extended their decline/In Canada, their CPI inflation rate eased lower to 2.3% in March. That is after the eight-month high of 2.6% in February. The March result was tamer than expected (2.6%) and below forecasts by the central bank of 2.5%. It comes after some GST and other tax changes earlier have now been flushed through their data. The Bank of Canada next meets to review its official policy rate later today, but it will be the economic impact of their unfriendly neighbour that will dominate policy, rather than current inflation. They will likely hold off making rate changes for now, keeping the 2.75% policy rate. That is a change from the earlier expected cut.Canadian housing starts came in weak in March, down more than -11% from the same month a year ago.India CPI inflation rate fell in March to 3.3%, its lowest since 2019. Food price inflation fell to 2.7%. Both were much lower than expected and well below the central bank's policy rate mid point of 4%.Indian exports rose sharply in March from February in the normal seasonal pattern. Their imports rose even more so their trade deficit grew from the prior month, although only back to its usual level.In China, they are cancelling their orders for Boeing aircraft, a blow to the US aircraft industry.In February, EU industrial production rose, a surprise gain and the best monthly gain in two years.But that wasn't an indicator for economic sentiment. The latest ZEW survey reveals a sharp deterioration as they watched the US turn away from friend to foe, making them feel boxed in between the US and Russia. It was a shift reminiscent of the uncertainty during the pandemic.And it seems that trade talks between the US and the EU are making "litte" (ir no) progress.In Australia, the latest release of the RBA minutes was a dull affair, giving little guidance on how they are going to deal with the trade and inflation challenges. It's all 'wait-and-see' and 'respond-to-data' for them. But they do claim to be in a good position to be able to act decisively if it is needed. A cut on May 20 is still possible however.OPEC's latest monthly review lowered its demand outlook, although some observers thought the smallness of the cutback was brave in the circumstances.And we should also note that there are now three elections due soon. Canada goes to the polls on April 28. Australia votes on May 3. And now a snap election has also been called in Singapore, also for May 3. Being Singapore, that unsurprisingly leaves very little time for campaigning. All these elections will have the Trump shadow hanging over them, and it very much helps campaigning to present an anti-Trump stance. Trump has resurrected the fortunes of the centre-left candidates, enough to cancel the anti-incumbent mood.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, down another -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3229/oz, and up +US$16 from yesterday.Oil prices have firmed marginally, up +50 USc from yesterday to be now at US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just over US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.1 USc, up +30 bps from yesterday at this time and the highest since mid-December. The fall of the USD extends. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we up +30 bps from yesterday at just on 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 67.6 and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US84,616 and holding again, up a mere +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the Wall Street and business titans who supported the 2024 Trump campaign are starting to turn on him, one calling the current situation "a clown show".The show has gotten even more extreme overnight. The US has added another 50% to tariffs on its imports from China, taking the total to 104%.But first up today, the overnight GDT Pulse dairy auction saw SMP prices fall a bit more than expected, down -2.6% from last week's full auction. But the WMP price slipped much less than expected, down just -1.8% on the same basis. The falling currency over the past week means there is no net change in NZD. The floating exchange rate is doing its job as a stabiliser.In the US, nominal retail sales surged last week, up +7.2% from the same week a year ago as consumers rushed to stock up on goods ahead of the tariff-induced hikes. That was its fastest rise since late-2022. Some of that 'gain' will have been from early price hikes, of course.Going the other way, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell sharply in March, by its most since June 2022 and to its lowest level since October 2024. This was a much larger fall than anyone saw coming. They anticipated a fall but not like this. The component 'uncertainty index' stayed at record high levels.Americans' appetite for consumer debt actually fell in February by -US$810 mln, the first drop since November. This followed a downwardly revised increase of +US$8.9 bln in January and came in well below the +US$15 bln rise expected. There were sharp and notable drops in demand for credit card debt, and car loan debt.The latest UST 3 year bond auction was well supported. But there was a notable -8.5% drop in total bids this time, the largest easing of support we have seen. It delivered a median yield of 3.70%, down from 3.85% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In China, there is a notable fall in the price of iron ore, down -12.5% from the start of April. That has yet to show up in the cash USD price of Australian iron ore, but it will soon. For reference the price of copper is down -18% in the same eight days.In China, the 'home team' is stepping up to buy equities to prevent them crashing further. State funds were reported to be very active yesterday. Separately, China is letting its currency weaken as a counterweight to the American tariffs. The yuan (CNY) isn't moving much but trending from the target 7.2:USD, but this official set rate is moving in the same direction as the offshore yuan (CNH) and heading to 7.35:USD. It is now at a 17 year low to the USD. China said it will "fight to the end" opposing the new US tariffs.Australia's NAB business confidence index ticked lower in March 2025 from a revised negative level in February, and it is now at its lowest level since November 2024.Staying in Australia, the Westpac Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey is seeing fear rising after the Trump tariff actions. Sentiment is -10% lower among those surveyed after the earlier April US tariff announcements. Aussies are now less confident on prospect of interest rate cuts by the RBA.Internationally, the IAEA says that while there is enough uranium being mined to support nuclear energy demand for the next 25 years, more will be needed if the current high-growth plans for capacity expansion continue, and the world could run out by 2080.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +10 bps from this time yesterday. Risk premiums are still rising.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2980/oz, and up +US$14 from yesterday.Oil prices have dropped -US$1.50 from yesterday at just over US$60/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 55.5 USc, unchanged from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 92.9 AUc and that's a ten month high. Against the euro we up +10 bps from yesterday at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 65.6 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,213 and falling, and down another -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.6%.Join us at 2pm later today for the Official Cash Rate review, the first by newly appointed interim Governor Christian Hawkesby. A -25 bps cut to 3.50% is widely anticipated, but given the global turmoil, most of the focus will be on how they see those pressures playing out in New Zealand and how they will respond to them.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Apple is going to take a beating Goods shipped from China to the US will face 54% tariffs, and Vietnam —where Apple has shifted some of its manufacturing— has tariffs of 46%. The only good news for consumers is the inventory that's already in the US isn't subject to tariffs, and companies have been stockpiling inventory – but that will change. We also don't know how much of these tariffs will be absorbed into the profit margin, and how much will be passed on. It's partly why Apple's stock has taken a beating, because they're either going to see decreased revenue if consumers hold onto their devices longer, or their profits crunched by increased costs. Nintendo's halting pre-orders on its new console The hotly anticipated Switch 2 won't be taking pre-orders in the US on April 9th, as was the plan just two days ago. The company says it's taking the step "in order to assess the potential impact of tariffs and evolving market conditions”. Nintendo says the console's June 5th release date is unchanged. They also haven't said where its new consoles will be made. Initial feedback from the launch was about the price – from the console to the games to the accessories, things are more expensive all around. Switch 2 will hit stores at $449.99 USD / $799 NZD, along with new games “Mario Kart World” and “Street Fighter 6″. It's larger and faster than the OG Switch and includes a dedicated button to launch a chat with your friends. The improved processors mean 24 racers can compete in Mario Kart World at the same time. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US President Trump unveiled individual reciprocal tariffs for each country which are essentially half of what countries were charging the US.The US is to apply a 20% tariff on imports from EU, 34% tariff on imports from China, 26% tariff on imports from India and 25% tariff on imports from South Korea.Trump also stated that the baseline tariff is 10% for all nations and announced 25% auto tariffs, while Canada and Mexico were not subject to reciprocal tariffs for now.US equity futures slumped in response to the tariff announcement (ES -2.6%, NQ -3.1%, RTY -3.9%). Europe is also marked lower with the Eurostoxx 50 future down 1.7%.USD is showing a mixed performance vs. peers but ultimately net lower (AUD, NZD weaker vs. the USD. JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF stronger).Global bond yields are lower with the inflation implications dwarfed by the mass risk-aversion in the market. Fed pricing looks for 82bps of easing by year-end vs. 76bps yesterday morning.Crude is lower as markets digest the global growth implications, whilst spot gold hit another record high.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, EZ Producer Prices, US Weekly Claims, Challenger Layoffs & ISM Services, ECB Minutes & BoE DMP, Speakers including Fed's Cook, Jefferson, US VP Vance, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, ECB's Schnabel & de Guindos, Supply from Spain, France, UK & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is bracing for the US to start a US$1.4 tln trade war. Tomorrow. The US says it is ready to start hostilities, supposedly with 20% across-the-board levies. Other governments have their retaliation plans ready. Americans are rushing to buy cars they can afford.But first, the overnight dairy auction came in better than the derivatives market had signaled, with an overall rose of +1.1% in USD terms, up +3.2% in NZD terms. WMP prices held steady and avoided the expected dip. SMP prices rose more than expected. But volumes were light, as expected in this part of the dairy season, but actually lower than this time last year. Keeping demand up was bidding from China, while the recent new interest from Europe basically held. Nothing today will change current farmgate milk price forecasts.In the US, retail demand is softening, with their Redbook survey off its peaks and back to average levels since October 2023. That is a notable drop from the November expansion.There were two American factory PMI surveys out overnight. The widely-watched ISM one contracted. This is a turn from an expansion and is not unexpected, but the size of the shift was. New order flows were weak, and the mood is turning even weaker.The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit one fell too, and quite sharply, but not yet into contraction territory. But this one reported a big jump - an outsized jump - in input prices, surely a sign of what is to come. Firms were only able to pass on some of that, but even so it was at a two-year high.American job openings in February fell by -194,000 to 7.57 mln from an upwardly revised 7.76 mln in January and below market expectations of 7.63 mln. Quits fell too as Americans prioritised holding on to the jobs they have.The Dallas Fed services survey reported a notable contraction, with perceptions of broader business conditions worsening in March.And that downshift was also picked up in the RCM/TIPP economic optimism survey which was expected to rise, but in fact fell in April, and to a six month low.In China, although still modest, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose in March from February's small positive, with a result that was better than market expectations. This marked the highest reading since last November, with output growth accelerating on the back of a sustained rise in new orders amid better demand conditions.The EU March CPI inflation rate eased slightly to 2.2%, to a marginally lower level than expected. Lower energy costs are restraining this indicator.In Australia, February retail sales were ho-hum, up +0.2% from January. That puts them essentially unchanged from the same month in 2024. So after inflation, that means they are -2.4% lower on a volume basis.And as expected, the RBA sat pat with its cash rate target at 4.1%. But once the Federal election is out of the way, markets expect them to cut the policy rate by -25 bps on May 20, 2025.Global air cargo demand is now coming off the boil as trade uncertainties build. The dip at that point wasn't large and it is still ahead year-on-year but with both US and European demand now negative on the year-ago basis, and the Asia expansion slipping rather quickly, it won't be long before we are reporting air cargo activity shrinking.Global air passenger demand held up in February, with the impetus slowed notably. International demand is holding up better than domestic, and the Asia/Pacific region is the best of these. The main weaknesses are in North American air travel.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, down -10 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3106/oz and down a net -US$12 from yesterday and off its all-time high.Oil prices are little-changed from yesterday at just under US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$74.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.9 USc and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just over 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 66.5 and up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,116 and up +2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

United Kingdom correspondent Alice Wilkins spoke to Lisa Owen about the latest in the row between Prince Harry and the charity he set up in honour of Princess Diana and Ministers calling for an expenses review - after an MP claimed $2,000 (NZD) for her dog's 'pet rent.' She also spoke about songwriter Ed Sheeran putting pen to paper in a letter to the UK Prime Minister asking for greater investment in music in schools.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the NZD is falling again and sharply, now back to one-month lows as commodity prices suggested shifts to our disadvantage, and global trade flows became more uncertain.The global risk-off trend is building. Wall Street opened weak, although it has pared back some of the losses in its afternoon trade.Elsewhere in the US, a key MidWest factory survey, the Chicago PMI, contracted less in March than expected. The shift itself wasn't large, but it was unexpected because a worsening was expected. So it has gained attention. But more than a third of respondents to this survey said they would respond to tariff pressures by raising prices. Only 18% said they would on-shore supplies. New order growth only got also-ran mentions. Overall, this report is of a slower downturn.The Dallas Fed factory survey was mixed. New order levels improved marginally but remained weak. Production levels rose more. But perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in March. The general business activity index fell to its lowest reading since July 2024.US factories are not gearing up for the 'benefits' of tariffs, yet anyway. And there are no significant signs of plans to do that.In Canada, one party is advancing an election strategy to push back on the tariff impacts on their trade with the US, ramping up home-building sharply to a level that reminds them of the post WWII surge. This campaign pledge is likely to find a receptive audience, because by all accounts Canadians are really, really pissed-off at the US.They will need something significant because all indications are that the impending tariff levels from the US are not being worked lower but in fact are more likely now to be at the upper end of earlier signals when they are announced on Thursday NZT.Across the Pacific in Japan there was a good jump in industrial production reported for February, from January.In South Korea, industrial production there was a rise on the same basis, although smaller.In China, they reported official PMIs for March and the factory one rose marginally as expected to a small expansion. Their services PMI for March rose marginally more. Importantly, in both cases new order levels came in better than the overall indexes.In India, they are moving into summer and all the indications are for extreme temperatures. So high are they being forecast that they could be at a level that causes parts of their economy to shut down, or at least stumble. Heatwaves are being normalised, with more energy consumption the only way to battle it on an individual level, and that means burning more coal.In Germany, retail sales rose more than expected in February (in real terms), which was much better than expected. Meanwhile they said the CPI inflation was running at 2.2% and slightly lower than the February level, and a four month low.Like Canada, Australia is also in an election campaign. US tariff impacts haven't really become an issue there yet although being anti-Trump is helping. But more of an issue is that China has another spy ship circling while at the same time its diplomats are calling for 'trade unity'. It is such an obvious carrot-and-stick play that it is winning China no friends. The trade fallout if Australia doesn't buckle, could be more serious for them than US tariffs.Australian property prices continued to recover from a short-lived dip to hit fresh highs in March as borrowers and prospective home buyers await a decision on interest rates today. Data from CoreLogic showed house prices rose in all cities except Hobart last month, with the national median value of a home now over AU$820,000.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3118/oz and up another net +US$34 from yesterday and easily a new all-time high.Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just over US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$75/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.7 USc and and down -½c from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -½c at just under 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 66.3 and down -40 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,350 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.5%You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

US futures gained after the Wall St. close as Lutnick suggested Trump could potentially reduce tariffs on Canada and Mexico, perhaps as soon as Wednesday.APAC mixed but with strength in China after data and the Official Growth Report which maintained a growth target of around 5% and pledged measures to boost spending.EUR underpinned by German debt brake reform with the DXY under pressure as a result, Cable hit a YTD peak while NZD was unreactive to Orr resigning.Bunds weighed on by CDU's Merz saying the first results on debt brake reform have been reached with the SPD alongside proposing new instruments and defence exemptions.Fed's Williams said he does not see the need to change policy currently, and described it as "still restrictive" and with the right balance; highlighted UoM inflation data as one to watch.Crude subdued, XAU range bound and Copper gained on China's report; Trump said he received a letter from Zelensky who is ready to come back to the table.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, US ADP National Employment, US Factory Orders, ISM Services, China NPC, Fed's Beige Book, BoE Treasury Select Hearing, Speakers including BoE's Bailey, Pill, Taylor and Greene, Supply from UK, Earnings from Telecom Italia, Bayer, Adidas, Sandoz, Abercrombie & Fitch, Foot Locker & Marvell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the tariff war mess is getting messier.First up, the overnight dairy auction came in a bit better than the futures market suggested it might. This event offered lower volumes at the back end of the current dairy season, and prices eased just -0.5% in USD terms from the last full event, but were up +1.0% in NZD terms. WMP eased -2.2% and that was as expected but butter and the cheeses made better gains than expected. Buying out of China was modest, but there was raised interest from both Europe and the Middle East. In the circumstances this was a solid overall result.Most other commodity prices are taking sizeable hits from the now-daily tariff-war battles. Behind all this is the expectation of falling demand as the US economy makes a sudden detour into recession. China's retaliation on US agricultural exports have seen sharpish falls in wheat and soybean prices.The impacts of the trade war haven't hit US retail sales yet - unless you think American consumers are stocking up ahead of the inflationary effects. There were up +6.6% from the same week a year ago.But they are showing up in sentiment surveys. Today's release was for the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index, and that retreated notably. This index rose in November, but has essentially retreated since and is now net-negative and a five month low.The American need for more warehousing and higher inventories is driving their logistics industry to a three year high. The components that weigh on productivity are getting the gains.The US is using a "fentanyl crisis" (one actually in retreat and one driven by American demand) as an excuse to impose increased tariffs. That alone will be inflationary. The counter-measure responses by Canada, Mexico, and now China will distort large parts of the American economy, and have global resonances.The US tariffs are expected to raise the costs of American carmakers by more than US$60 bln, and will drive most into losses, and may even kill some (like Stellantis). Car demand is expected to fall -12% in the US as a result of the needed higher prices.Financial markets continue to react in a negative way. They have given up any post-election gains, and more. Things could get much worse quite soon. Congress is nowhere near to agreeing a budget funding deal.Meanwhile across the Pacific, Japanese consumer sentiment is falling back too now, and is back to where it was two years ago.On the Australian east coast Cyclone Alfred is barrelling towards Brisbane and northern NSW. It is expected to make landfall as a category 2 storm late on Thursday or early Friday and would be the first tropical cyclone to impact NSW since Nancy in 1990.Today the UST 10yr yield is at 4.19%, down -4 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2912/oz and up +US$20 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$2/bbl to US$69.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just on US$70.50/bbl. Lower expected demand is why this price is soft.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.2 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +30 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down another -30 bps at 53.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.1, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$82,930 and down a net -7.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at +/- 5.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

United Kingdom correspondent Alice Wilkins spoke to Lisa Owen about how the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has met with Donald Trump in Washington and an NHS nurse being paid out close to $100,000 NZD for being left out on tea rounds by a colleague. She also spoke about how a pop star has alread scooped up a prize at the Brit Awards.

APAC stocks traded mixed following the somewhat choppy performance stateside.President Trump stated he will impose 25% tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals and chips.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Tuesday.The RBNZ delivered a third consecutive 50bps rate cut and signalled further cuts ahead; likely to step down to 25bps increments.DXY a touch softer, NZD leads, most other majors are broadly contained.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, FOMC Minutes (Jan), Fed's Jefferson, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Sentiment hit across markets after Ukrainian President Zelensky pushes back against US-Russian talks, with equities at fresh lows.USD a little firmer, NZD leads post-RBNZ, GBP contained after mixed inflation metrics.Crude firmer while aluminium spikes on EU's 16th sanctions package on Russia.Gilts lag after UK CPI, USTs await 20yr supply & FOMC Minutes, Bunds hit by hawkish ECB Schnabel comments.Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes (Jan), Comments from Fed's Jefferson, Supply from the US, Earnings from Etsy, Garmin, Wix.com, Analog, Carvana.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is still not beat and the new tariff wars are messing with when that might happen.First up today, there was another dairy auction, and this one came in weaker than the derivatives markets had anticipated. Prices slipped overall by -0.6% in USD terms and by -1.5% in NZD terms. It was a much lower SMP price that was the surprise undershoot, down -2.5% from the prior event and last week's Pulse event. Cheddar cheese also took a -3.4% tumble, whereas the WMP price was only -0.2% lower than the last event, but it didn't fall as much as the derivatives market anticipated. Going the other way, there was a -2.2% rise in the butter price, taking it to almost matching its record high in June 2024. It is at its record high in NZD. Overall, of note today, "North Asia" (ie China) returned with renewed demand to be the top buyer, after largely sitting on the sidelines recently.In the US, the New York region factory survey turned from a negative to a positive expansion in February, a continuation of an improving trend that started in early 2024 but one that has been volatile.But their national survey of house builders turned more cautious in February, hurt by tariff-talk and the expected resulting inflation.In Canada they reported January CPI inflation, and that came in at 1.9% and pretty much as expected. But the "trimmed mean" core rate came in at 2.7%, the one the Bank of Canada follows, above the December level of 2.6% and well above the expected 2.5% level. This is going the wrong way for them and they may now skip the expected March rate cut.We should probably note that German business sentiment rose in February, ahead of this weekend's federal elections, on the hope that a new government won't get stuck in coalition paralysis. More broadly, EU business sentiment is rising too.The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.1%, much as expected by financial markets, citing progress on getting inflation down towards its target range. It was their first cut since 2020. But it was a hawkish cut, and post-election there may not be any more until the clear inflation pressures ease, especially those expected from the looming tariff war. Despite that, financial markets are still pricing in at least two more rate cuts in 2025.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.54%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2931/oz and up +US$33 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$75.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57 USc and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 54.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.9, and down -30 bps from this time yesterday and has been among the largest devaluers over the past 24 hours.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,789 and down another -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.1%.Join us at 2pm this afternoon for full coverage of the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement. And before that, we will have the January REINZ results at 9am.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it remains unclear what happens next after the chaotic round of US tariffs on their closest trade partners, and then their unexpected suspension.But first up this morning, we can report a strong dairy auction result, with prices up +3.7% in USD terms and up +4.0% in NZD terms. The key WMP price was up +4.1% in USD terms and is now sitting much higher than the anticipated US$4000 level. There were a couple of key factors at play today. First, despite rising NZ production, the volume of product on offer was down, and along with lower US and Australian milk production, there is a supply squeeze. And secondly, there was strong pre-Ramadan buying although not so much from China as anticipated. Where each component has landed can be checked in our dual-currency charts that also interleave the Pulse results for SMP and WMP as well. There are some new high benchmarks achieved today, especially the WMP price in NZD.And, yes, the strength of this auction will have analysts reassessing their payout forecasts. But they will probably hold back because of where we are in the season. However, the base is now quite strong.US job openings fell by -556,000 to 7.6 million in December, to a lot less than anticipated and indicating a definite cooling of the American labour market. Clearly employers were uncertain about how the post-election landscape would play out. And this came well before the aggressive purging of Federal government jobs now underway.Perhaps worse, new orders for manufactured goods sank -0.9% in December from November, extending the revised -0.8% drop in the previous month, and firmly below market expectations of a lesser decline. It was the sharpest monthly drop since June.But retail sales were up +5.7% last week from the same week a year ago on a same-store basis and that was an improvement. However you have to wonder whether this rise was motivated by buying ahead of expected price rises flowing from the signaled tariff increases.Surging inventory levels has seen the US Logistics Manager's Index jump in January from December to its fastest expansion of the logistics since June 2022. Underlying growth and the uncertainty surrounding trade regulations, particularly the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, drove the defensive inventory moves.On the trade war front, the US delayed its tariff imposition in both Mexico and Canada by a month, but China set in motion is retaliation, a mixture of its own countervailing tariffs especially on coal, oil and natural gas, plus major 'investigations' of Google, Nvidia and Intel. It also banned exports of some key minerals. But analysts thing there is more symbolism here than hard penalties. They are being saved for later in the game.In Canada, consumer boycotts may have a bigger effect than official retaliation. Other major economies are also readying their retaliation, including Japan and the EU. If all of them act in unison, the impact of just these five big trading blocs will be substantial for the US (and themselves of course).China thinks it can win the trade war with the US just by letting the yuan sink. In fact, all currencies vs the USD are falling. That way imports become cheaper for US buyers, and US exports become more expensive (and less attractive) to overseas customers. It is lose-lose for the US. Trump is fighting natural market forces with unnatural tariffs.Join us at 10:45am this morning when we will report the Q4-2025 unemployment rate. Markets expect it to have risen to 5.1% from the Q3 4.8%. Any variance from that will have implications for the February OCR review due on the 18th of this month.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.52%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$2840/oz and up +US$23 from yesterday and another new record high.Oil prices are virtually unchanged again at just on US$72.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now US$76/bbl and a tad firmer.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.2 USc and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$99,502 and up another minor +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.2%.We should finally note that tomorrow (Thursday, February 6, 2025) is a public holiday in New Zealand and there won't be a Breakfast Briefing edition. It will return on Friday.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Friday.

Building high-performance engines just got easier! In this video, we're with Tom from Hughes Race Built to explore how they're solving one of the biggest challenges in performance engine building: finding the right tools for the job. Whether you're tackling a 2JZ, RB26, SR20, 4G63 or even Honda's K and B series, Tom's specialized and generic option toolkits are designed by engine builders, for engine builders, to simplify the process and make it more accessible for enthusiasts and pros alike.Use ‘PODCAST75' for $75 off your first HPA course here: https://hpcdmy.co/hpa-tuned-inFrom engine-specific kits priced around $580 USD ($1,000 NZD) to their innovative hydraulic balancer puller, these tools take the frustration out of tasks like removing front pulleys, compressing valve springs, and installing piston rings. Tom walks us through how these purpose-built solutions, like their adjustable billet ring compressor, bring the precision of CNC machining to a wide range of bore sizes without the need for multiple tools.If you've ever struggled with the limitations of universal tools or wished for something purpose-made for your favourite JDM engine build, this is the video for you. Check out the solutions that are filling a major gap in the market and making engine building more enjoyable than ever.Find out more at https://hughesracebuilt.com/

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the dominated by Trump's shows of 'power' and theatrics. Toxic tech-bro masculinity is on full display. Senior female leaders are getting the chop or side-lined. But so far, also backtracks on trade threats. So we will stand back to await any real impacts.But first up today, there was another full dairy auction today and it was a modestly positive one, although volumes sold were seasonally lower, the least since July 2024. Overall prices rose +1.4% from the last full auction two weeks ago, and perhaps the detail is more interesting than the overall result. WMP was up +5.0%, SMP was up +2.0%, and both butter and cheddar cheese had better than +2% rises from that last full auction. That takes the WMP price to its highest since June 2022. Stronger demand from China is part of the reason for today's rise, but better demand out of Europe helped too. In NZD terms, overall prices were up only +1.0% as the NZD rose and is higher than two weeks ago.From the US, the flurry of Presidential executive orders is creating an opening for China to lead some key global initiatives, from health and the WHO, to climate change. While the US is becoming more isolationist, China is finding openings to be less so. The world's power blocs are getting new boundaries.In Canada, their December CPI data brought few surprises, up 1.8% when a 1.9% rise was expected. But overall December prices actually fell from November and by slightly more than anticipated. Some sales tax relief had a part to play as well. With this result, inflation remained within or below the Bank of Canada's midpoint target 2% for the fifth consecutive month, adding to current expectations of further rate cuts this year. They next review that official rate on Thursday next week NZT and their current rate is 3.25%. But trade relations with their suddenly unfriendly southern neighbour will dominate how they approach this.In China, 15 of their 31 regional governments have set growth targets for 2025 less than they had for 2024. Only one raised its target. Basically soft domestic demand and an uncertain global trade outlook is motivating the pullbacks.In Germany, any green shoots they may have been seeing have been snuffed out by households in defensive mode. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell in January from December, and by more than expected as inflationary pressure perceptions persist. But to be fair, this sentiment index is still positive, and has been since October, just less so.Later this morning, we will get the December REINZ results, and the Q4-2024 New Zealand inflation result. The RBNZ's February 19 OCR review will be influenced by that.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.58%, and unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2740/oz and up +US$33 from yesterday.Oil prices are unchanged at just over US$76.50/bbl in the US although the international Brent price is down -50 USc to now just on US$79.50.The Kiwi dollar starts today just under 56.6 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday and holding its recent gain. Against the Aussie we unchanged at 90.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.1 and again unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$105,307 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside; Japanese stocks heavily pressured on return from the long weekend.US President-elect Trump's team reportedly studies month-by-month tariff hikes of 2%-5%, according to Bloomberg.European equity futures indicate a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.8% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.5% on Monday.DXY is higher but back on a 109 handle, NZD marginally outperforms, JPY narrowly lags.Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, EIA STEO, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, ECB's Lane, BoE's Breeden & Taylor, Fed's Schmid & Williams, Supply from Netherlands, UK & Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Bagrie Economics’ managing director gives his thoughts on how the economy is shaping up for the first half of 2025 and why the NZD is still falling. Plus, what should we keep an eye on globally and what chance are sub 5% home loans before the year is out?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the week has started tentatively. But there was an eye-catching housing affordability proposal in Spain,But first, there were no real surprises in the latest survey of American inflation expectations. Consumers still see a 3% rate for the year ahead, more for food (+4.0%), less for petrol (+2.0%), but still high for rent (+5.5%). For three years ahead, expectations are for no relief, up from +2.6% to +3.0% per year.But more than expected, Chinese exports surged +10.7% in December from year-ago levels, much more than the market forecasts of +7.3% and accelerating from a +6.7% rise in November. Traders are clearly front-loading orders in anticipation of new aggressive tariffs from the incoming US administration. But Chinese exports to New Zealand were down -1.8% in the month, their imports from us down -7.9%.Chinese imports only rose +1.0%.China's new vehicle sales rose to 3.5 mln units in December, spurred by those taxpayer discounts to encourage spending. They were more than +10% higher in the month than the same month a year earlier. NEVs took a record 45% share of these latest sales. Traditionally, December is their peak sales month of the calendar year.India's CPI inflation rate eased from +5.5% in November to +5.2% in December. Food prices, which account for nearly half on their survey, rose +8.4%. If there is good news among this data it is that prices fell in December from November.Meanwhile, the Indian currency fell to more than 86.7 rupee to the USD. At the start of the year it was 'only' 85.5 so that is -1.4% in two weeks. At the start of 2024 it was at 83 so -4.3% since then. (Still, that is nothing like the -10.4% fall by the NZD against the USD since the start of 2024.)In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by +0.6% in December 2024, sharply accelerating from a +0.2% increase in November and marking the highest level since December 2023. It was also the fourth consecutive month of gain.The ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads survey rose by +0.3% in December from November, swinging from a revised -1.8% drop in the prior month. The latest level suggests their labour market is still resilient on a short-term basis despite elevated interest rates. On an annual basis however, job ads dropped -12.5% from December 2023. They have dropped almost -28% from their peak in 2022.In Europe, Spain like many others is facing a housing crisis. They fear a "rich owner / poor tenant" split that is developing elsewhere. Their government has twelve measures proposed to deal with the issue, one of which is a 100% tax on non-EU house buyers.And for the record, the coal price fell further overnight. Oddly, demand is up in China, but so is output - more so - and they have fast-building inventories.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.77%, and up just +1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$2665/oz and down -US$25 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just over US$78.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$81.The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 55.5 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.6 and down less than -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,068 and down -3.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Lupa Pizza, in the UK city of Norwich, is charging customers £100 - about $220 NZD - to order their Hawaiian pizza on deliver app Deliveroo in an effort to dissuade customers from buying it. The pizzeria's co-owner Francis Wolf spoke to Alexa Cook.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news American economic data continues to impress.But first up today there was a full dairy auction, one that brought slightly lower prices overall in USD terms (-1.4%), and slightly higher results in NZD terms (+0.6%). The milk powders slipped -2.2% while the milk fats (cheese and butter) were firmer. Demand was lighter despite lower production reports in both the US and China. Although analysts will have noted these softer results, it seems unlikely the high farmgate payout forecasts will be altered by this result alone. But prices today are on the downside from recent highs.In the US, their Redbook monitoring of retail sales continued its very elevated rise from a year ago, up +6.8% and off a positive base. So this metric is still quite impressive.US exports continued their rise, up +5.2% in November from a year ago for goods, up +9.3% for services. Imports were up too, but probably distorted by a pre-tariff surge, a surge that will continue into December.US ISM services PMI was very expansionary, and more so that the internationally benchmarked S&P/Markit one. New order growth was strong, but it was current business activity levels that drove this rise.And that is reflected in the November JOLTS report. Analysts had expected a slip back, but in fact a surge in job openings was found in this survey, and quits were lower than expected. We are just three days away from getting the December non-farm payrolls report and today's release suggests there may be upside coming to the +154,000 gain expected.So it will be no surprise to know that their logistics sector is expanded fast in December. But an effort by firms to keep inventories under control meant that the latest fast expansion was less than in November.Today's UST 10yr bond auction brought a median yield of 4.62% at the well supported event, although less so than last time. But that was much higher than the 4.19% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.The Canadian Ivey PMI came in strong too with a solid expansion reported and its best in six months, although not quite up to the expansion analysts had expected.Canadian exports rose too in November.In China, an update by major developer Country Garden shows just how damaged the property sector is. In December it sold only 50% of the level it sold in the same month a year ago, itself a very weak benchmark. Beijing's stimulus efforts haven't helped this developer yet.And lower Chinese activity is seeing quite sharpish dips for both coal and rebar steel prices now.And staying in China, their foreign exchange reserves fell in December but their gold reserves rose for a second straight month. However, year on year those reserves are only -0.2% lower, and unchanged for the gold holdings.In Europe, their CPI inflation rate has been rising since October, and is now up to 2.4%, largely driven by the German inflation rise we reported yesterday. Europe-wide it is the rise in the cost of services that are the driver here; energy costs are the restrainer.Australian building consents came in less than expected in November. Year-on-year consents for new housebuilding rose +3.8% but multi-unit dwellings fell -6.4%. Month-on-month both fell more than expected. They may still be in an overall recent rising trend, but it that trend is weakening faster now.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.69%, and up +6 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2651/oz and up +US$12 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are also little-changed from this time yesterday at just on US$74/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is up +50 USc at just under US$77.The Kiwi dollar starts today still at 56.5 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps to 90.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 54.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1 and up +10 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$97,785 and down -4.2% from this time on yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

An interview with Dr. Lisa Brown, a Hepatobiliary Surgeon and Aerospace Medicine Researcher at the New Zealand Space Health Research Center.  Lisa's background is in Surgery.  And In addition to surgical training, Lisa completed training and research in Aerospace Medicine, including as the Aerospace Medicine Research Fellow at the University of Oxford, an internship at the European Space Agency, and the University of Texas Medical Branch Principles of Aerospace Medicine Short Course with NASA. She is on the organising committee of Women in Space Aotearoa New Zealand and Lead of the New Zealand Space Health Research Network.Resources:Space Medicine Coures:Principles of Space Medicine, University of Texas Medical BranchSpace Physician Training Course, European Space AgencyAerospace Medicine, Kings College, London UKNotable Associations:Aerospace Medical AssociationAerospace Medicine Student Residence OrganizationThe Space Surgery AssociationTo participate in the New Zealand Space Health Research Network, visit the website.Hosted by: Emeline Paat-Dahlstrom, Co-Founder and CEO, SpaceBaseMusic: reCreation by airtone (c) copyright 2019 Licensed under a Creative Commons (3.0)If you like our work, please consider donating to SpaceBase through the SpaceBase Open Collective. Or be a SpaceBase Patreon sponsor.  (E.g. $3 dollars a month or $36 NZD a year will go a long way in supporting the production of the podcast.)

APAC stocks were mixed after the S&P 500 and DJIA posted fresh record highs but the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed.FOMC Minutes noted uncertainty over the neutral rate level makes it appropriate to reduce restraint gradually; some said the Fed could pause easing.Israel's cabinet approved the ceasefire deal with Lebanon; ceasefire has since gone into effect.European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 0.8% on Tuesday.RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps, which was widely expected, although there were outside bets for a greater 75bps reduction.DXY is steady below the 107 mark, NZD leads gains across the majors, JPY supported as BoJ hike expectations build.Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE (Oct), GDP 2nd Estimate (Q3), PCE Prices Prelim (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims (23 Nov, w/e), Durable Goods (Oct), Advance Goods Trade Balance (Oct), German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Dec), Comments from ECB's Lane, US Supply.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European equities on the back foot with hawkish remarks from Schnabel weighing, US futures mixed into a packed data docketJPY outperforms with the NZD a close second after the RBNZ, EUR lifted by Schnabel; DXY pressured as suchFixed benchmarks in the green and towards highs though Bunds were dented by ECB speak, OAT-Bund yield spread at its highest since 2012Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer but in narrow ranges awaiting updates around the ceasefire, US data and OPEC+; metals moving higherLooking ahead, highlights include US PCE (Oct), GDP 2nd Estimate (Q3), PCE Prices Prelim (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims (23 Nov, w/e), Durable Goods (Oct), Advance Goods Trade Balance (Oct), Comments from ECB's Lane, US Supply.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

An interview with Cairo Akehurst, a year 12 student at Cashmere High in Christchurch, New Zealand.  And he is also already a serial entrepreneur having founded Convergence Aerospace and most recently Cattle Credit. His team was a finalist to the Space for Planet Earth Challenge 2023-24, High School level.  He won the Emerging Technology Award as part of the Otautahi Christchurch Smart Cities Challenge 2024.  He was also an elected participant in the validator programme at the University of Christchurch Center for Entrepreneurship. And just recently, he was short listed as one of three finalist for the Global Entrepreneurship Network (GEN) New Zealand Entreprenuerial Ecosystem Awards in the Youth Entrepreneur of the Year category.Hosted by: Emeline Paat-Dahlstrom, Co-Founder and CEO, SpaceBaseMusic: reCreation by airtone (c) copyright 2019 Licensed under a Creative Commons (3.0)If you like our work, please consider donating to SpaceBase through the SpaceBase Open Collective. Or be a SpaceBase Patreon sponsor.  (E.g. $3 dollars a month or $36 NZD a year will go a long way in supporting the production of the podcast.)

BBC World reporter Pete Ross joins Emile Donovan to look at some of the events making headlines internationally, including crucial talks at the UN's annual climate conference, what the main talking points will be at this year's G20 conference in Rio de Janeiro and why a banana stuck to the wall has fetched over $1million NZD.

This is a special episode on the Global Space Enablers Network and the start of an alternating theme to feature space enablers globally working to catalyze, develop, and grow their own space sector and industry in different parts of the world. The aim is to share lessons learned, best practices, and resource opportunities specially for nascent and emerging regions and countries.   In this episode co-founders of SpaceBase Limited discuss the motivations, goals, and activities this newly formed alliance of ecosystem builders around the world.Joining the host is SpaceBase co-founder Eric Dahlstrom.  Eric has worked in both public and private space industry in the US and abroad for four decades. A physicist, astronomer, and aerospace engineer by training, he has contributed to the design and re-design of the International Space Station as a NASA contractor. He has also mentored and worked on space startup companies that are building launchers, to landers and rovers on the Moon.  Eric is an ISU Faculty who has taught in  at least11 countries around the world, often as Chair of the ISU Space Studies Program's Space Sciences Department.  He also often chairs as Team Project Chair.ResourcesGlobal Space Enablers Network - alliance to support space ecosystem builders globally.The paper on Establishing a Global Space Enablers Network was published at the IAC Conference along with the GSEN Poster which was presented in the Internactive Poster session.To contribute to the global Knowledge Base supporting space enablers, take the GSEN Survey.Next Events: GSEN Net Connect#1, 18 November 2024, Noon, CEST (12 midnight, 19 Nov, NZT) Meet fellow space enablers from across the globe.  Learn and create opportunities to collaborate.  Register today.Next GSEN physical event will take place at the Singapore Space and Technology Limited Global Space Technology Convention and ExhibitionHosted by: Emeline Paat-Dahlstrom, Co-Founder and CEO, SpaceBaseMusic: reCreation by airtone (c) copyright 2019 Licensed under a Creative Commons (3.0)If you like our work, please consider donating to SpaceBase through the SpaceBase Open Collective. Or be a SpaceBase Patreon sponsor.  (E.g. $3 dollars a month or $36 NZD a year will go a long way in supporting the production of the podcast.)

FOMC Minutes stated that some officials would have preferred a 25bps cut, though a substantial majority supported 50bpsBiden-Netanyahu call was positive; US does not yet know the timing of the strike against IranAPAC stocks traded higher, significant outperformance in Hong Kong on fresh PBoC support. European futures point to a slightly firmer openDXY rangebound, NZD & AUD outperform given the above and after Wednesday's pressureFixed benchmarks remain near Wednesday's lows while Crude continues to move higherLooking ahead, highlights include Italian Industrial Output, US CPI, Initial Jobless Claims, US Federal Budget, NZ Manufacturing PMI, Chinese M2 Money Supply, ECB Minutes, Tesla Robotaxi Event, AMD AI Event, Speakers including Fed's Cook, Barkin & Williams, Supply from US, Earnings from Domino's Pizza & Delta.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has paid back over £6,000 ($12,000 NZD) in gifts and hospitality received since taking up the role after a controversy over donations. Starmer is covering the cost of six Taylor Swift tickets, four tickets to the races, and a designer clothing rental agreement favoured by his wife, Lady Victoria Starmer. UK correspondent says Starmer is under pressure to improve transparency after he and some other MPs faced criticism over accepting freebies from wealthy donors. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An interview with Emma Renowden, Aerospace Cluster Lead at Otautahi Christchurch. Emma is an experienced strategic partnerships manager who is passionate about the role of innovation and technology in addressing some of the world's most significant challenges. In her role at ChristchurchNZ, Emma is responsible for developing an ambitious city strategy for the Aerospace sector, with the goal of harnessing the economic opportunities it presents. She holds degrees in Political Science and International Relations from the University of Canterbury. Emma is also a Committee Board Member of the Aerospace New Zealand, the national industry body promoting Aerospace in Aotearoa.ResourcesChristchurchNZ  - Christchurch's economic development agencyAerospace New Zealand - Aerospace industry cluster for New ZealandAotearoa Aerospace Academy -an educational programme inspiring the next generation of Astronomers, Engineers and Space Scientists in NZ. New Zealand Aerospace Summit  (Sept 23-24, 2024) - primier annual aerospace event in New Zealand.Hosted by: Emeline Paat-Dahlstrom, Co-Founder and CEO, SpaceBaseMusic: reCreation by airtone (c) copyright 2019 Licensed under a Creative Commons (3.0)If you like our work, please consider donating to SpaceBase through the SpaceBase Open Collective. Or be a SpaceBase Patreon sponsor.  (E.g. $3 dollars a month or $36 NZD a year will go a long way in supporting the production of the podcast.)

APAC stocks traded mostly lower despite the gains seen on Wall Street on Friday, with the mood in the APAC region dampened by the continued decline in Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI ahead of key risk events including US NFP on Friday.DXY resided in a tight range, NZD lagged after last week's strong performance, while CNH weakened post-PMIs.The far-right German AfD will claim a clear victory in state parliamentary elections in the German state of ThuringiaECB policymakers increasingly at odds on the outlook for growth, with some fearing a recession, others focusing on lingering inflation pressures, via ReutersChina reportedly warns Japan of retaliation over new potential new chip curbs, via BloombergLooking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK Final Manufacturing PMIUS Labour Day Holiday: The desk will open as usual at 22:00BST/17:00EDT on Sunday 1st September and run until 18:00BST/13:00EDT on Monday 2nd September, upon which the desk will close and then re-open at 22:00BST/17:00EDT.Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In episode 31, Johnny talks to New Zealand director Michael Duignan.
 Michael's debut feature - The Paragon - premiered last year at the New Zealand International Film Festival, and blew audiences away.  Made for a budget of just $25,000 NZD - the dictionary definition of making something ‘off the smell of an oily rag' - The Paragon is a sci-fi-comedy that punches well above its weight. You can see the film in theatres in five American cities - L.A., New York, Austin, Chicago and Portland - from the 6th of September 2024, or online from Music Box films, and AroVision in New Zealand.  Not surprisingly Johnny and Michael's talk covers the trials and tribulations of making a low-budget psychedelic fantasy film in New Zealand, they discuss the work of Michael Mann - always a favourite subject - and his lasting impact on cinema, and they take a spoiler-filled look at the latest Alien film, Alien Romulus.  This conversation was recorded face to face in late August of 2024. We recorded in the garden of Michael's house - AKA the Paragon house - and so there's a lovely soundtrack of birds, ducks and the occasional car driving past. Thanks to James Van As who wrote and performed the brilliant podcast music (check out James' ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Loco Looper⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ game) and to Willow Van As who designed the amazing artwork and provided general podcast support.
 You can contact My Movie DNA on Facebook, Instagram or Twitter @mymovieDNA or email mymovieDNA@gmail.com.

APAC stocks traded with modest losses across the board following the weak lead from Wall Street and in the aftermath of NVIDIA's ill-received earnings.NVIDIA settled -6.9 % after-market despite solid earnings and a USD 50bln share buyback, some suggested disappointment as metrics fell short of the highest forecasts.NZD was boosted after ANZ Business Outlook soared whilst JGB futures saw upticks on a well-received 2-year JGB auction.European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after cash closed higher by 0.3% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish CPI, German CPI, EZ Sentiment, US PCE (Q2), GDP (Q2), IJC, ECB's Rehn, Lane; Fed's Bostic, Supply from Italy, US, and Earnings from Lulelemon, Dollar General, Best Buy, MarvellRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

An interview with with James Brice, Lead Systems Engineer for New Glenn, Blue Origin's prime launch system for Moon missions.  Jim has over three decades experience working with aerospace companies like Boeing and Orbital Science and leading engineering projects from space planes to rocket systems like the X34, Antares rocket, and the launch abort system for Orion.Jim holds an Industrial Engineering degree from University of Central Florida and a Masters in Systems Engineering from George Washington University. He was instrumental in the formation of the NASA Space Academy. He is an alumni and former Deputy Director for the International Space University's Space Studies Program.Resources:Students for the Exploration and Development of Space (SEDS) - a student space advocacy group with chapters around the worldNASA Space Academy - A rigorous and diverse summer research program that prioritizes collaboration, teamwork, leadership, innovation, and creativity. Books:The Right Stuff by Tom WolfeThe High Frontier by Gerard O'NeillThe Heavens and the Earth by McDougallHosted by: Emeline Paat-Dahlstrom, Co-Founder and CEO, SpaceBaseMusic: reCreation by airtone (c) copyright 2019 Licensed under a Creative Commons (3.0)If you like our work, please consider donating to SpaceBase through the SpaceBase Open Collective. Or be a SpaceBase Patreon sponsor.  (E.g. $3 dollars a month or $36 NZD a year will go a long way in supporting the production of the podcast.)

European equities are mostly, but modestly firmer (ex-FTSE 100); US futures are flatDollar is flat, NZD outperforms and USD/JPY back to 146.50Bonds are incrementally firmer, Bunds dipped slightly on German Producer Prices but then edged higher as the morning progressedCrude is lower in a continuation of the prior day's price action; XAU prints another fresh ATH at USD 2521/oz and base metals gainLooking ahead, Canadian CPI, CBRT Policy Announcement, US Primary (down-ticket), Democratic Convention, Comments from Fed's Bostic & Barr, Earnings from Lowe's & MedtronicRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

There's speculation that Labour is examining the possible benefits of an inheritance tax ahead of its next party conference. The party has reportedly taken inspiration from Ireland, where people are required to pay a 33 percent tax on gifts or inheritances worth more than €335,000 ($558,00 NZD). Independent tax expert Geof Nightingale says there's good arguments for the tax - but it's not without drawbacks. "It can get very complex to administer, because it's based on valuation. It can drive some really unwelcome economic behaviours, because you've got to find cash to pay it - therefore you might sell the family business or realise some assets." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have agreed to properly manage their nations' differences during a visit.   This follows an era in which minister-to-minister contacts were banned and trade barriers cost Australian exporters up to 20 billion Australian dollars ($21.5 billion NZD) a year.   Australia Correspondent Oliver Peterson told Heather du Plessis-Allan “On the one hand: keep buying our iron ore and wine, but also we don't really want you to talk to our Pacific neighbours and - get out of the South China Sea.”  Peterson said “It doesn't really fit in with the narrative of our two nations at this stage.”  LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

APAC stocks traded mixed following soft performance of US cash markets before receiving support post-Nvidia earnings.Nvidia's earnings topped forecasts and the Co. also announced a ten-for-one stock split; +6% after-hours.FOMC Minutes suggested the disinflation process would take longer than previously thought.European equity futures indicate a positive open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 0.4% on Wednesday.UK PM Sunak confirmed reports that he will call for a general election on July 4th.DXY held onto recent spoils and remains just below the 105 mark, NZD leads the majors once again.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US PMIs, US IJC, EZ Consumer Confidence, Q1 Negotiated Wages, CBRT Announcement, Comments from Fed's Bostic, Supply from US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly rangebound as global markets brace for the FOMC Minutes and Nvidia earnings.European equity futures indicate a slightly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% on Tuesday.RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged as expected but raised its OCR forecasts across the projection horizon.DXY is flat, NZD is boosted post-RBNZ, JPY marginally lags, GBP eyes UK CPI.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI/PPI, Fed Minutes, Fed's Bostic, Mester, Collins, Goolsbee, ECB's Lagarde & BoE's Breeden, Supply from UK, Germany & US, Earnings from SSE, Marks & Spencer, Nvidia, Analog Devices, TJX & Target.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Cautious APAC trade amid mixed data incl. Chinese CPI but with support from China's ultra-long issuance plansDXY rangebound with peers contained, NZD lags after cooler inflation projectionsJGBs pressured as the BoJ adjusted its 5-10yr bond buying operation for todayCommodities attentive to mixed commentary from the Iraq Oil Minister, metals mixedLooking ahead, highlights include NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations Survey, Comments from Fed's Mester & Jefferson, SNB's Jordan, Earnings from DiplomaClick here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US stocks eventually eked slight gains, APAC stocks traded mixed ahead of upcoming risk events and a slew of market closures.Fitch revised China's outlook to Negative and affirmed its rating at A+.European equity futures indicate a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.6% after the cash market closed down 1.1% on Tuesday.RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged as expected and noted that a restrictive monetary policy stance remains necessary.DXY is steady above the 104 mark, NZD the notable outperformer post-RBNZ, other majors are steady.Looking ahead, highlights include include Norwegian CPI, US CPI, BoC Policy Announcement, FOMC Minutes, Comments from Fed's Bowman, Barkin & Goolsbee, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are mixed though have been edging higher, taking impetus from strength in US equity futuresDollar is weaker, NZD benefits from a softer AUD/NZD crossBonds incrementally firmer and Gilts outperform after BoE's MannCrude is modestly softer, XAU higher and near session highsLooking ahead, US Durable Goods, Philly Fed Non-manufacturing Business Outlook, Richmond Fed Survey, BoC's Rogers and ECB's Lane, Supply from the USRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined amid data-related headwinds from the US including hot PPI and weak Retail Sales.Markets await the RENGO wage announcement and its potential ramifications for next week's BoJ policy announcement.European equity futures indicate a contained open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed down 0.2% on Thursday.DXY has gained a firmer footing above the 103 mark, EUR/USD is back below 1.09, NZD lags across the majors.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index, US Import Prices, Canadian Wholesale Trade, UoM Inflation Expectations, BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey, Japan's Rengo Wage Hike Announcement, Comments from ECB's Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Equities are mostly firmer with slight outperformance in the NQ, paring some of the prior days lossesDollar is contained and G10s are mostly flat with slight strength seen in the NZD & GBPBonds hold a bearish tilt, continuing price action seen in the prior few days; Bunds caught a slight bid following dovish remarks from ECB's StournarasCrude is firmer and near session highs, base metals are entirely in the redLooking ahead, US IJC, PPI, Retail Sales, NZ Manufacturing PMI, Comments from ECB's Schnabel, Knot, de Guindos, Supply from the US, Earnings from Dollar GeneralRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

It's been a swift boost to Australia's economic offers, Taylor Swift that is. As she wraps up her Australian tour tonight, some estimates put the financial gains from her seven concert stint at up to $1,000,000,000. A slice of that money's come from kiwi wallets; fans forced to travel to the lucky country, hosting the mega star. That means, spending on accomodation, food, taxis, ubers and merch, all money, that could arguably be spent here. Reporter Louise Ternouth caught up with these Taylor Swift fans just before they got on a plane headed for the Sydney concerts. Now in America, the swiftonomics are staggering with some number crunchers suggesting the tour could boost the economy by more than $9,500,000,000 NZD. After Australia, Swift heads to Singapore, who actively wooed the star months in advance and has confirmed it's Tourism Board paid a grant of an undisclosed amount, to secure the gigs. So has New Zealand made an economic Era, should we have paid for Swift to play here? Dr Angel Zhong of the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology speaks to Lisa Owen.