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1. Strait of Hormuz Situation Iran claimed multiple times that it has closed the Strait of Hormuz. However, actual shipping traffic continued, including oil and LNG tankers. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated: Iran does not control the strait Passage remains open and monitored Data cited: ~55 merchant ships transit per day ~17 million barrels of oil moving through 2. Maritime Risk & Behavior Ships are: Turning off AIS tracking systems for safety Operating cautiously due to military tensions Traffic has: Fluctuated (e.g., 26 ships one day → 5 the next) Not returned to “normal pre-conflict levels” 3. U.S.–Iran Negotiations (MoU) A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed: Covers nuclear issues, sanctions, and broader conflict Includes: Potential release of frozen Iranian funds Conditional progress requirements Key issue: Concern over how Iran will use funds Oversight mechanism proposed via Qatar Funds may be used for: Food purchases (e.g., American soybeans) 4. Nuclear Program Concerns Iran has: Agreed (in principle) to allow inspectors But: U.S. officials express skepticism Historical distrust is repeatedly emphasized 5. Economic Implications Oil prices: Declining (~$74/barrel) due to optimism Markets: Near record highs Strait stability is linked directly to: Global energy supply Economic stability Please Hit Subscribe to this podcast Right Now. Also Please Subscribe to the The Ben Ferguson Show Podcast and Verdict with Ted Cruz Wherever You get You're Podcasts. And don't forget to follow the show on Social Media so you never miss a moment! Thanks for Listening X: https://x.com/benfergusonshowYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader and the Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. Trader Ferg shares his current market views, highlighting several contrarian opportunities built around long-term, underappreciated assets. He remains bullish on scarce resources like thermal coal, where tight supply and Asian demand support high-quality names, though pure-play options are limited. In energy, he sees an asymmetric upside and prefers long-dated options on integrated trading houses like Shell, leveraging torque to Brent and LNG while benefiting from volatility through their opaque but highly profitable trading arms. He also points to offshore engineering and oil services as an underinvested niche with rock-bottom valuations, already showing outperformance and strong earnings visibility. A key theme is the shift toward resilient, capital-light business models. Trader Ferg is particularly enthusiastic about emerging market exchange operators, which he views as inflation-protected, high-margin plays that have been out of favor due to a strong US dollar but are poised for a decade of growth as global capital flows rotate. In gold, he sees a structural bull market driven by de-dollarization and central bank buying, though near-term consolidation is likely after flushing out speculative tourists. He advocates a patient, long-horizon approach, cautioning against short-term futures and binary geopolitical bets, which have historically been unprofitable for him. Instead, he emphasizes buying cheap, hated assets with robust free cash flow and letting time and volatility work in his favor. Throughout the discussion, he stresses the importance of stress-testing assumptions, learning from mistakes, and focusing on durable trends rather than short-term noise, insights he regularly shares through his Substack. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:52 – Current Market Opportunities 00:02:44 – Exchange Operators Theme 00:04:27 – Oil Services and Offshore 00:08:24 – Oil Market Supply Dynamics 00:17:19 – China Flexibility in Energy 00:25:45 – Hormuz & Concerning Timlines 00:27:07 – Fertilizers Agriculture and Sulfur 00:29:08 – Sulphur Supply Thoughts 00:32:37 – Thermal Coal Supply Demand 00:44:00 – Gold Market and Producers 00:45:55 – Long Term Inflation Strategies 00:50:33 – Exchange Operations 00:52:50 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/ X: https://x.com/trader_ferg Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.
Canada's top trade envoy in Taipei, Marie-Louise Hannan, reflects on four decades of Canada-Taiwan ties, growing LNG and offshore wind cooperation, and why Prime Minister Mark Carney's case for middle-power democracies resonates with Taiwan's own search for agency in a fractured world.Episode highlights:00:00 Launching a new diplomat interview series02:44 Arriving in China in 1989, before the Tiananmen incident09:31 Dr. Mackay and the roots of Canada-Taiwan ties12:26 Taiwan as a top Indo-Pacific trade partner15:05 Energy dependence and the case for Canadian LNG20:37 Inside Canada's first ever Indo-Pacific Strategy26:59 Carney's Davos speech and middle-power democracies31:00 Life in Taipei: food, family, and safetyHost: Kwangyin Liu, Deputy Managing Editor, CommonWealth MagazineGuest: Marie-Louise Hannan, Executive Director of Canadian Trade Office in Taipei Producers: Yayuan Chang, Weiru Wang＊Read more：https://english.cw.com.tw＊Share your thoughts：bill@cw.com.tw Powered by Firstory Hosting
With a 75-year track record under its belt, TC Energy is poised to enter a new phase of growth, thanks to a presence across North America and the growing demand for energy at home and abroad. In conversation at RBC's Global Energy, Power and Infrastructure Conference, President and CEO François Poirier outlines the company's current tailwinds, and why he sees particular LNG growth opportunities for Canada.Key Points• Canada has new opportunities to meet growing global demand for LNG.• TC Energy is lifting self-imposed capital allocation limits as it seeks to grow its assets across North America.• Safety, profitability and asset reliability are closely entwined in the success of the business.
Kazań bywa nazywany trzecią stolicą Rosji. To nie slogan turystyczny — to precyzyjna strategia. Moskwa uczyniła z Kazania główne narzędzie polityki wobec świata islamskiego: forum gospodarcze z udziałem blisko stu krajów, Stolica Kultury Świata Islamskiego 2026, scena szczytów BRICS i ASEAN oraz islamskiego KazanForum. Żaden z 57 krajów Organizacji Współpracy Islamskiej nie przystąpił do zachodnich sankcji wobec Rosji. W odcinku przyglądamy się temu mechanizmowi — i temu, jak wygląda Kazań poza protokołem: drony pięć dni przed szczytem, kolejki po benzynę, galerie handlowe w kryzysie, sztafeta zmilitaryzowana z symulatorem drona i punktem werbunkowym Korpusu Afrykańskiego. A obok — festiwal książki, festiwal lalek, film o tatarskim słowiku i Rok poety Tukaja.I paradoks: arabski wchodzi do rosyjskich szkół od września 2026. Tatarski — język rdzennej muzułmańskiej ludności Tatarstanu — został ze szkół wypchnięty w 2017. Ta sama logika, dwa różne zastosowania islamu.Przed mikrofonem: Bartosz Gołąbek.Źródła: Wystąpienie Putina na szczycie Rosja–ASEAN:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wx1nhkVpxlQPodsumowanie szczytu (stenogram):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hG-CAFeHSYPutin otwiera kompleks LNG w Kazaniu:https://expert.ru/news/vladimir-putin-dal-start-rabote-novogo-ispytatelnogo-kompleksa-na-zavode-v-kazaniSadzonki giną w Kazaniu — Inkazan:https://inkazan.ru/news/2026-06-16/myortvyy-les-u-obochiny-kak-kazanskie-dorogi-prevraschayutsya-v-kladbische-sazhentsev-5618684YouTube usuwa reklamy Alabuga Politech — Radio Swoboda:https://www.svoboda.org/a/youtube-udalil-esche-234-rolika-s-reklamoy-kolledzha-alabuga-politeh-v-tatarstane-gde-sobirayut-bespilotniki/33783719.htmlInnopolis — Inkazan:https://inkazan.ru/news/2026-06-10/innopolis-kak-zhivetsya-v-samom-molodom-gorode-rossii-5615186Letni festiwal książki Smena — Riealnoje Wremia:https://rt-online.ru/news/letniaia-smena-v-kazani-ot-kitaiskoi-gramoty-do-futbola-542456Sztafeta zmilitaryzowana — Riealnoje Wremia:https://rt-online.ru/news/sila-rossii-v-soxranenii-tradicii-v-kazani-vozrodili-voenizirovannuiu-estafetu-543166Kary za odmowę zatrudnienia weteranów — Radio Swoboda:https://www.svoboda.org/a/v-tatarstane-rabotodateley-hotyat-shtrafovat-na-summu-do-100-tysyach-rubley-za-otkaz-brat-na-rabotu-uchastnikov-voyny/33764205.htmlPutin w Kazaniu podczas ASEAN:http://vybor-naroda.org/lentanovostey/308970-kakie-mesta-posetil-vladimir-putin-v-kazani-vo-vremja-foruma-asean.htmlKryzys galerii handlowych — KazanFirst:https://kazanfirst.ru/articles/v-kolcze-i-tandeme-lyudej-zametno-menshe-kak-torgovye-czentry-kazani-perezhivayut-krizisKorpus Afrykański w Mali — KazanFirst:https://kazanfirst.ru/news/afrikanskij-korpus-otrazil-napadenie-terroristov-na-grazhdanskuyu-kolonnu-v-maliArabski w rosyjskich szkołach — Moscow Times:https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/20/v-rossiiskih-shkolah-nachnut-izuchat-arabskii-yazik-a198745Wsparcie: buycoffee.to/sprawywschodu | patronite.pl/sprawywschoduLista informacyjna Spraw Wschpdu: sprawywschodu.online → zakładka lista informacyjna
VOV1 - Bộ Nội vụ Qatar tối qua thông báo một vụ nổ nghiêm trọng đã xảy ra tại cơ sở sản xuất khí tự nhiên hóa lỏng lớn nhất của nước này, khiến nhiều người bị thương.Bộ Nội vụ Qatar cho biết vụ nổ xảy ra do sự cố kỹ thuật, tại một nhà máy sản xuất khí hóa lỏng (LNG) thuộc khu công nghiệp khí đốt chiến lược Ras Laffan, ở phía Bắc thủ đô Doha. Cơ sở này từng bị Iran tập kích trong thời gian xung đột hồi tháng 3. Vụ nổ khiến một số người bị thương, nhưng không đe dọa tính mạng.Bộ Nội vụ Qatar không cho biết vị trí chính xác của vụ nổ. Tuy nhiên, theo một số nguồn tin khu vực, sơ sở xảy ra sự cố là nhà máy khí gas Barzan, thuộc khu công nghiệp Ras Laffan. Nguyên nhân gây nổ là do lỗi vận hành. Mức thiệt hại vật chất cụ thể chưa được công bố. Liên quan phản ứng của khu vực với tiến trình hòa đàm Mỹ-Iran, Ngoại trưởng 4 nước Ai Cập, Pakistan, Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ và Saudi Arabia, tối qua đã ra tuyên bố chung hoan nghênh việc Washington và Tehran ký bản ghi nhớ Islamabad về chấm dứt giao tranh và triển khai đàm phán. Động thái đưa ra sau cuộc họp đặc biệt giữa 4 Ngoại trưởng tại Cairo, Ai Cập, theo sáng kiến của nước chủ nhà. Đây là cuộc thảo luận thứ 4 trong hơn 2 tháng qua của các Ngoại trưởng nhóm Bộ tứ Trung Đông mới về hỗ trợ giải pháp ngoại giao cho cuộc chiến tranh Mỹ-Israel-Iran. Nỗ lực được tiến hành song trùng với vòng đàm phán chính thức đầu tiên Mỹ-Iran được tổ chức tại Thụy Sỹ hôm qua với sự trợ giúp của các nhà trung gian quốc tế, đứng đầu là Pakistan và Qatar. Trong tuyên bố chung, Ngoại trưởng 4 nước tái khẳng định tầm quan trọng của việc tiếp tục hoạt động tham vấn và điều phối giữa các nước về ủng hộ hòa bình, an ninh, sự ổn định và thịnh vượng chung tại khu vực Trung Đông cũng như trên toàn thế giới./.VOV/Ai CậpHiện trường vụ việc. (Ảnh: Reuters)
Cũng như nhiều nước khác, trước tình hình nguồn cung dầu hỏa bị gián đoạn do chiến tranh Mỹ-Iran, để bảo đảm an ninh năng lượng, Việt Nam buộc phải dựa vào điện than nhiều hơn cho dù làm như vậy sẽ càng khó mà thực hiện các cam kết về chống biến đổi khí hậu. Theo Cơ quan Thông tin Năng lượng Mỹ (EIA), hơn 80% lượng dầu thô và khí tự nhiên hóa lỏng (LNG) đi qua eo biển Hormuz là được xuất khẩu sang châu Á. Việc tuyến hàng hải này bị phong tỏa đẩy khu vực vào tình thế vô cùng khó khăn. Đặc biệt, do nguồn cung khan hiếm, giá khí LNG đã tăng vọt ở thị trường châu Á, trong khi giá than tăng ít hơn nhiều, cho nên nhiều nước trong khu vực quay trở lại với điện than. Trả lời RFI Việt ngữ ngày 12/05/2026, giáo sư Phạm Duy Hiển, nguyên Viện trưởng Viện nghiên cứu hạt nhân Đà Lạt, cũng ghi nhận đây là tình hình chung của các nước châu Á: “Không chỉ riêng Việt Nam mà hầu hết nhiều nước ở châu Á và các nước lớn như Trung Quốc, Ấn Độ ... đều bị tác động. Trung Quốc là một nước có rất nhiều than, cho nên có lợi thế. Bây giờ họ quay sang sử dụng than nhiều hơn trong một thời gian, tuy cũng biết làm như thế là ảnh hưởng đến lời hứa của Trung Quốc về cắt giảm khí thải gây hiệu ứng nhà kính. Các chuyên gia, các công ty về quản lý năng lượng lớn thế giới đều dự báo Trung Quốc trong 5 năm tới vẫn phải dựa vào việc mở rộng các nhà máy điện chạy than, chứ không có cách nào khác cả. Ấn Độ cũng vậy. Còn những nước như Hàn Quốc và Nhật Bản trước tình hình hiện nay đều phải cho phép nâng lên tỷ lệ điện than.” Theo nhận định của Discovery Alert, trang thông tin chuyên về khai thác mỏ trên thế giới, trong bài viết đăng ngày 13/04/2026, “không giống như các quốc gia phát triển có các nguồn năng lượng đa dạng và dự trữ chiến lược dồi dào, các nền kinh tế nhỏ hơn như Việt Nam thường phụ thuộc nhiều vào nhiên liệu nhập khẩu và thiếu tính linh hoạt về cơ sở hạ tầng để nhanh chóng chuyển đổi giữa các nguồn năng lượng trong trường hợp khẩn cấp về nguồn cung. Hơn nữa, các quốc gia này còn đối mặt với tác động của thị trường khí hóa lỏng (LNG) và sự biến động giá dầu, làm trầm trọng thêm tính dễ bị tổn thương của kinh tế.” Discovery Alert ghi nhận việc Việt Nam dựa vào điện than khi chiến tranh Mỹ-Iran leo thang đã trở nên rõ nét trong tháng 3/2026, khi sản lượng điện than tăng vọt, chiếm 56% tổng sản lượng điện, mức cao nhất kể từ giữa năm 2025. Giáo sư Phạm Duy Hiển cho rằng trong thời gian tới, Việt Nam sẽ phải tiếp tục dựa nhiều vào điện than, vì các nguồn điện năng khác không đủ để đáp ứng nhu cầu: “Việt Nam hiện nay đã sống với điện than. Điện than bình thường chiếm tỷ lệ gần 50% công suất phát điện, cho nên Việt Nam cũng bị ảnh hưởng. Mà về điện than, Việt Nam phải đi mua thêm than của các nước như Indonesia và Trung Quốc, cụ thể là tháng 3 vừa rồi đã nhập đến mấy triệu tấn than. Dự kiến con số đó có thể sẽ phải tăng lên. Kinh phí để nhập khẩu than cũng lớn, nhưng bây giờ dầu sao thì vẫn hơn là không có. Cho nên tạm thời trong một thời gian phải sử dụng điện than và theo tôi nghĩ Việt Nam cũng chưa có cách nào khác. Còn nếu dựa vào những nguồn năng lượng khác, thì bây giờ nguồn năng lượng tái tạo cũng đã được khai thác khá nhiều rồi và cũng có tác dụng nhất định. Nhưng nguồn năng lượng này cũng hạn chế, không thể nâng lên nhiều hơn nữa. Gần đây người nói nhiều về điện hạt nhân. Nếu có được thì điện hạt nhân sẽ là một giải pháp tương đối lớn để giải quyết vấn đề thiếu điện thay cho than. Đó là một loại năng lượng sạch. Thế nhưng chưa biết là bao giờ mới có thể đặt bút ký với một đối tác bên ngoài để cung cấp nhà máy điện hạt nhân cho mình. Từ thời điểm đó thì sau hàng chục năm nữa may ra mới có điện. Kinh nghiệm của Bangladesh cho thấy nước này bắt đầu có kinh phí để xây dựng và có các hợp đồng liên chính phủ là vào năm 2017. Nhưng tới cuối năm 2026 thì may ra mới có thể đưa điện lên lưới được. Gần đây thế giới cũng hô hào đẩy mạnh điện hạt nhân, nhưng điện hạt nhân đâu có dễ làm đối với Việt Nam cũng như đối với những nước khác . Đó không phải là một công nghệ có sẵn như than. Nhà máy điện chạy than thì quá là cổ điển rồi, mua về là có thể lắp đặt và cho chạy được ngay. Còn điện hạt nhân thì cần bao nhiêu thứ: cơ sở hạ tầng, năng lượng, nhiên liệu, an toàn…. Bây giờ có một hy vọng là khí thiên nhiên từ các mỏ khí mới được phát hiện được, sẽ giúp giải quyết vấn đề cân bằng năng lượng ở Việt Nam." Thế nhưng vấn đề là hiện nay công suất điện khí còn khiêm tốn của Việt Nam càng làm hạn chế các giải pháp thay thế trong thời kỳ khủng hoảng. Các nhà máy điện khí chỉ sản xuất được 2,1 TWh trong tháng 3 năm 2026, chiếm khoảng 7% tổng sản lượng điện. Hạn chế về cơ sở hạ tầng này có nghĩa là khí đốt tự nhiên không thể đóng vai trò cơ chế thay thế tức thời khi giá năng lượng nhập khẩu tăng vọt, hoặc khi nguồn cung bị gián đoạn. Việt Nam cũng đang phải sản xuất than nhiều hơn để đáp ứng cho các nhà máy nhiệt điện. Theo báo chí trong nước, ngày 15/04, bộ Nông Nghiệp và Môi Trường đã đề nghị chính phủ cho phép tăng công suất khai thác than, cụ thể là cho phép khai thác vượt không quá 15% công suất đối với các giấy phép khai thác than đang còn hiệu lực, nhằm đảm bảo an ninh năng lượng quốc gia. Theo bộ này, “than trong nước tiếp tục giữ vai trò là nguồn năng lượng nền tảng và năng lực khai thác thực tế của các mỏ còn dư địa để tăng sản lượng”. Nhà máy Nhiệt điện Vũng Áng II ở tỉnh Hà Tĩnh cũng vừa được khánh thành ngày 18/04. Đây là dự án hợp tác giữa Nhật Bản và Hàn Quốc, trong đó 60% cổ phần thuộc về các công ty Nhật Bản đứng đầu là tập đoàn Mitsubishi và 40% cổ phần thuộc về Tập đoàn Điện lực Hàn Quốc. Với tổng công suất hơn 1.300MW, Nhà máy Nhiệt điện Vũng Áng II được giới thiệu là sử dụng “công nghệ hiện đại nhất đối với các nhà máy nhiệt điện than tại Việt Nam”, làm giảm lượng tiêu hao nhiên liệu dẫn đến cắt giảm phát thải. Vấn đề đặt ra là phải làm sao hạn chế tác động của các nhà máy điện than đối với môi trường và khí hậu, bởi vì Việt Nam còn phải thực hiện những cam kết với quốc tế về chống biến đổi khí hậu. Giáo sư Phạm Duy Hiển ghi nhận: “Các nhà máy điện chạy than bây giờ cũng sử dụng những công nghệ tương đối là tiên tiến, tránh ô nhiễm môi trường. Ô nhiễm môi trường nay cũng đỡ một phần là bởi vì ngày xưa các nhà máy phát ra bừa bãi từ ống khói chứ bây giờ thì có những quy chế nhất định. Các khí thải từ nhà máy điện than thì cũng đã bắt đầu được xử lý để không gây ô nhiễm môi trường. Rồi còn phải xử lý những xỉ than. Lâu lâu thì vẫn thấy nói có ô nhiễm chỗ này chỗ khác, nhưng tôi chắc là dần dần rồi cũng phải giải quyết. Ô nhiễm ở chỗ nào thì người dân ở đó sẽ phản ảnh, các cơ quan có trách nhiệm phải giải quyết. Thực ra mà nói thì dùng điện than không chỉ làm tăng lượng khí CO2, mà còn có rất nhiều khí độc khác từ nhà máy điện than thải ra. Trung Quốc đã thành công trong vấn đề này, cho nên bắt đầu từ 2006, tức là cách đây đến 20 chục năm, họ đã có quyết định của nhà nước là bắt buộc giảm phát thải các cái khí độc từ các nhà máy điện chạy than. Và họ đã thành công nhiều, tức là giảm ô nhiễm khá nhiều. Thế thì bây giờ nếu sản lượng điện than nhiều quá, thì có lẽ cũng phải đề nghị nhà nước có một cách kiểm tra toàn diện, làm thế nào để các khí phát thải ô nhiễm, không chỉ CO2 và các khí ô nhiễm khác đều thấp, phù hợp với các tiêu chuẩn về môi trường ở Việt Nam." Cũng theo chiều hướng đó, Việt Nam dự kiến sẽ đóng cửa các nhà máy điện than cũ trên 40 năm tuổi, nếu các nhà máy này không thể chuyển đổi sang sử dụng nhiên liệu sạch như hydrogen, amoniac xanh. Cụ thể, ngày 23/03, chính phủ Hà Nội đã phê duyệt "Đề án cập nhật triển khai tuyên bố chính trị thiết lập quan hệ đối tác chuyển đổi năng lượng công bằng" (JETP). Sau năm 2030, chính phủ yêu cầu không xây mới nhà máy điện than, đồng thời đàm phán đóng cửa với các nhà máy có tuổi thọ trên 40 năm, không thể chuyển đổi nhiên liệu và không thể đáp ứng lộ trình giảm thải khí nhà kính.
Cũng như nhiều nước khác, trước tình hình nguồn cung dầu hỏa bị gián đoạn do chiến tranh Mỹ-Iran, để bảo đảm an ninh năng lượng, Việt Nam buộc phải dựa vào điện than nhiều hơn cho dù làm như vậy sẽ càng khó mà thực hiện các cam kết về chống biến đổi khí hậu. Theo Cơ quan Thông tin Năng lượng Mỹ (EIA), hơn 80% lượng dầu thô và khí tự nhiên hóa lỏng (LNG) đi qua eo biển Hormuz là được xuất khẩu sang châu Á. Việc tuyến hàng hải này bị phong tỏa đẩy khu vực vào tình thế vô cùng khó khăn. Đặc biệt, do nguồn cung khan hiếm, giá khí LNG đã tăng vọt ở thị trường châu Á, trong khi giá than tăng ít hơn nhiều, cho nên nhiều nước trong khu vực quay trở lại với điện than. Trả lời RFI Việt ngữ ngày 12/05/2026, giáo sư Phạm Duy Hiển, nguyên Viện trưởng Viện nghiên cứu hạt nhân Đà Lạt, cũng ghi nhận đây là tình hình chung của các nước châu Á: “Không chỉ riêng Việt Nam mà hầu hết nhiều nước ở châu Á và các nước lớn như Trung Quốc, Ấn Độ ... đều bị tác động. Trung Quốc là một nước có rất nhiều than, cho nên có lợi thế. Bây giờ họ quay sang sử dụng than nhiều hơn trong một thời gian, tuy cũng biết làm như thế là ảnh hưởng đến lời hứa của Trung Quốc về cắt giảm khí thải gây hiệu ứng nhà kính. Các chuyên gia, các công ty về quản lý năng lượng lớn thế giới đều dự báo Trung Quốc trong 5 năm tới vẫn phải dựa vào việc mở rộng các nhà máy điện chạy than, chứ không có cách nào khác cả. Ấn Độ cũng vậy. Còn những nước như Hàn Quốc và Nhật Bản trước tình hình hiện nay đều phải cho phép nâng lên tỷ lệ điện than.” Theo nhận định của Discovery Alert, trang thông tin chuyên về khai thác mỏ trên thế giới, trong bài viết đăng ngày 13/04/2026, “không giống như các quốc gia phát triển có các nguồn năng lượng đa dạng và dự trữ chiến lược dồi dào, các nền kinh tế nhỏ hơn như Việt Nam thường phụ thuộc nhiều vào nhiên liệu nhập khẩu và thiếu tính linh hoạt về cơ sở hạ tầng để nhanh chóng chuyển đổi giữa các nguồn năng lượng trong trường hợp khẩn cấp về nguồn cung. Hơn nữa, các quốc gia này còn đối mặt với tác động của thị trường khí hóa lỏng (LNG) và sự biến động giá dầu, làm trầm trọng thêm tính dễ bị tổn thương của kinh tế.” Discovery Alert ghi nhận việc Việt Nam dựa vào điện than khi chiến tranh Mỹ-Iran leo thang đã trở nên rõ nét trong tháng 3/2026, khi sản lượng điện than tăng vọt, chiếm 56% tổng sản lượng điện, mức cao nhất kể từ giữa năm 2025. Giáo sư Phạm Duy Hiển cho rằng trong thời gian tới, Việt Nam sẽ phải tiếp tục dựa nhiều vào điện than, vì các nguồn điện năng khác không đủ để đáp ứng nhu cầu: “Việt Nam hiện nay đã sống với điện than. Điện than bình thường chiếm tỷ lệ gần 50% công suất phát điện, cho nên Việt Nam cũng bị ảnh hưởng. Mà về điện than, Việt Nam phải đi mua thêm than của các nước như Indonesia và Trung Quốc, cụ thể là tháng 3 vừa rồi đã nhập đến mấy triệu tấn than. Dự kiến con số đó có thể sẽ phải tăng lên. Kinh phí để nhập khẩu than cũng lớn, nhưng bây giờ dầu sao thì vẫn hơn là không có. Cho nên tạm thời trong một thời gian phải sử dụng điện than và theo tôi nghĩ Việt Nam cũng chưa có cách nào khác. Còn nếu dựa vào những nguồn năng lượng khác, thì bây giờ nguồn năng lượng tái tạo cũng đã được khai thác khá nhiều rồi và cũng có tác dụng nhất định. Nhưng nguồn năng lượng này cũng hạn chế, không thể nâng lên nhiều hơn nữa. Gần đây nhiều người nói về điện hạt nhân. Nếu có được thì điện hạt nhân sẽ là một giải pháp tương đối lớn để giải quyết vấn đề thiếu điện thay cho than. Đó là một loại năng lượng sạch. Thế nhưng chưa biết là bao giờ mới có thể đặt bút ký với một đối tác bên ngoài để cung cấp nhà máy điện hạt nhân cho mình. Từ thời điểm đó thì sau hàng chục năm nữa may ra mới có điện. Kinh nghiệm của Bangladesh cho thấy nước này bắt đầu có kinh phí để xây dựng và có các hợp đồng liên chính phủ là vào năm 2017. Nhưng tới cuối năm 2026 thì may ra mới có thể đưa điện lên lưới được. Gần đây thế giới cũng hô hào đẩy mạnh điện hạt nhân, nhưng điện hạt nhân đâu có dễ làm đối với Việt Nam cũng như đối với những nước khác . Đó không phải là một công nghệ có sẵn như than. Nhà máy điện chạy than thì quá là cổ điển rồi, mua về là có thể lắp đặt và cho chạy được ngay. Còn điện hạt nhân thì cần bao nhiêu thứ: cơ sở hạ tầng, năng lượng, nhiên liệu, an toàn…. Bây giờ có một hy vọng là khí thiên nhiên từ các mỏ khí mới được phát hiện được, sẽ giúp giải quyết vấn đề cân bằng năng lượng ở Việt Nam." Thế nhưng vấn đề là hiện nay công suất điện khí còn khiêm tốn của Việt Nam càng làm hạn chế các giải pháp thay thế trong thời kỳ khủng hoảng. Các nhà máy điện khí chỉ sản xuất được 2,1 TWh trong tháng 3 năm 2026, chiếm khoảng 7% tổng sản lượng điện. Hạn chế về cơ sở hạ tầng này có nghĩa là khí đốt tự nhiên không thể đóng vai trò cơ chế thay thế tức thời khi giá năng lượng nhập khẩu tăng vọt, hoặc khi nguồn cung bị gián đoạn. Việt Nam cũng đang phải sản xuất than nhiều hơn để đáp ứng cho các nhà máy nhiệt điện. Theo báo chí trong nước, ngày 15/04, bộ Nông Nghiệp và Môi Trường đã đề nghị chính phủ cho phép tăng công suất khai thác than, cụ thể là cho phép khai thác vượt không quá 15% công suất đối với các giấy phép khai thác than đang còn hiệu lực, nhằm đảm bảo an ninh năng lượng quốc gia. Theo bộ này, “than trong nước tiếp tục giữ vai trò là nguồn năng lượng nền tảng và năng lực khai thác thực tế của các mỏ còn dư địa để tăng sản lượng”. Nhà máy Nhiệt điện Vũng Áng II ở tỉnh Hà Tĩnh cũng vừa được khánh thành ngày 18/04. Đây là dự án hợp tác giữa Nhật Bản và Hàn Quốc, trong đó 60% cổ phần thuộc về các công ty Nhật Bản đứng đầu là tập đoàn Mitsubishi và 40% cổ phần thuộc về Tập đoàn Điện lực Hàn Quốc. Với tổng công suất hơn 1.300MW, Nhà máy Nhiệt điện Vũng Áng II được giới thiệu là sử dụng “công nghệ hiện đại nhất đối với các nhà máy nhiệt điện than tại Việt Nam”, làm giảm lượng tiêu hao nhiên liệu dẫn đến cắt giảm phát thải. Vấn đề đặt ra là phải làm sao hạn chế tác động của các nhà máy điện than đối với môi trường và khí hậu, bởi vì Việt Nam còn phải thực hiện những cam kết với quốc tế về chống biến đổi khí hậu. Giáo sư Phạm Duy Hiển ghi nhận: “Các nhà máy điện chạy than bây giờ cũng sử dụng những công nghệ tương đối là tiên tiến, tránh ô nhiễm môi trường. Ô nhiễm môi trường nay cũng đỡ một phần là bởi vì ngày xưa các nhà máy phát ra bừa bãi từ ống khói chứ bây giờ thì có những quy chế nhất định. Các khí thải từ nhà máy điện than thì cũng đã bắt đầu được xử lý để không gây ô nhiễm môi trường. Rồi còn phải xử lý những xỉ than. Lâu lâu thì vẫn thấy nói có ô nhiễm chỗ này chỗ khác, nhưng tôi chắc là dần dần rồi cũng phải giải quyết. Ô nhiễm ở chỗ nào thì người dân ở đó sẽ phản ảnh, các cơ quan có trách nhiệm phải giải quyết. Thực ra mà nói thì dùng điện than không chỉ làm tăng lượng khí CO2, mà còn có rất nhiều khí độc khác từ nhà máy điện than thải ra. Trung Quốc đã thành công trong vấn đề này, cho nên bắt đầu từ 2006, tức là cách đây đến 20 chục năm, họ đã có quyết định của nhà nước là bắt buộc giảm phát thải các cái khí độc từ các nhà máy điện chạy than. Và họ đã thành công nhiều, tức là giảm ô nhiễm khá nhiều. Thế thì bây giờ nếu sản lượng điện than nhiều quá, thì có lẽ cũng phải đề nghị nhà nước có một cách kiểm tra toàn diện, làm thế nào để các khí phát thải ô nhiễm, không chỉ CO2 và các khí ô nhiễm khác đều thấp, phù hợp với các tiêu chuẩn về môi trường ở Việt Nam." Cũng theo chiều hướng đó, Việt Nam dự kiến sẽ đóng cửa các nhà máy điện than cũ trên 40 năm tuổi, nếu các nhà máy này không thể chuyển đổi sang sử dụng nhiên liệu sạch như hydrogen, amoniac xanh. Cụ thể, ngày 23/03, chính phủ Hà Nội đã phê duyệt "Đề án cập nhật triển khai tuyên bố chính trị thiết lập quan hệ đối tác chuyển đổi năng lượng công bằng" (JETP). Sau năm 2030, chính phủ yêu cầu không xây mới nhà máy điện than, đồng thời đàm phán đóng cửa với các nhà máy có tuổi thọ trên 40 năm, không thể chuyển đổi nhiên liệu và không thể đáp ứng lộ trình giảm thải khí nhà kính.
Brent råolie – $78 signalerer olieoverskud efter juliGenåbningen af Hormuzstrædet sker i praksis gennem juli, og Brents fald til $78 svarer til et olieoverskud i verden fra august. Det er aggressivt, men som også handler om fuld iransk olieudvinding og eksport til verden. Nu drejer det sig om normaliseringsprocessen, og netto er, at vi sænker vores prognose for 3. kvartal til $85 og derefter langsomt vigende mod 2. kvartal 2027 til $75. Diesel - Priser for senere levering i 2027-28 stabileMellemøsten vil fra næste måned igen sende både råolie og -produkter til Europa og Asien. Det betydelige prisfald i diesel for her-og-nu leverance slår dog ikke igennem på lange leverancer i f.eks. 2027 og 2028. En ufølsomhed, som vi ikke forventer ændret, og priserne vil næppe returnere til niveauet fra før krisen. Vi anbefaler prissikring med CAL27 og CAL28, og en samlet prissikring på halvdelen af det forventede forbrug. Naturgas - Europa satser alt på LNG fra USA til vinterEt fortsat lavt LNG-importtempo i Europa rejser spørgsmålet, hvorfor forpligtede lageroperatører tøver? Vi vurderer, at der bliver satset stort på, at den ventede globale udvidelse af LNG-eksportkapaciteten i år sikrer et løbende højt LNG-flow også gennem vinteren. Et hårdt sats i vores øjne, og vi fastholder nødvendigheden af en højere gaspris i Europa på €50 ind i efteråret, og derefter vigende mod €40 i 2. kvartal 2027. Læs hele analysen her.Vigtig investeringsinformation
欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫招商轮船的发展历程和未来期望，来自赛艇队长。三、各业务板块发展轨迹分析招商轮船的业务板块可以划分为五大类：油轮运输、干散货运输、LNG运输、汽车滚装运输和集装箱运输。其中，油轮和干散货是双核心主业，贡献了公司绝大部分利润；LNG运输是未来增长极；汽车滚装和集装箱运输则是重要的业务补充，增强了公司穿越周期的能力。油轮运输业务——核心基石油轮运输是招商轮船的立业之本，也是公司最具竞争优势的业务板块。公司旗下的海宏轮船（AMCL）拥有超过50年的大型油轮专业经营管理经验，其前身是1968年将VLCC引入远东的香港金山轮船公司。这一深厚的历史积淀，使公司在国际油运市场建立了卓越的声誉。从规模演进看，公司VLCC船队经历了三个发展阶段。2015-2017年是快速扩张期，通过新建和收购，船队规模从34艘增至44艘。这一时期，公司抓住中国原油进口需求增长的机遇，迅速扩大VLCC船队规模。2018-2020年是巩固优化期，船队规模维持在51-53艘，重点转向船队结构优化和成本管控。这一时期，公司虽然没有大规模新增运力，但通过加装脱硫塔、节能装置等方式，提升了船队的环保性能和运营效率。2021-2024年是提质增效期，虽然船队规模基本稳定在52艘左右，但通过数字化改造和精细化管理，船队的运营效率进一步提升。特别值得一提的是，公司的VLCC船队在成本控制方面处于行业领先地位。2025年，公司VLCC船队保本点已降至约2万美元/天，这意味着即使在市场低迷时期，公司仍能保持盈利或最小化亏损。这一成本优势来源于三个方面：一是规模效应带来的采购成本优势，包括燃油采购、备件采购、保险采购等；二是与中石化、中石油等大型客户的长期合作关系带来的货源保障，降低了空驶率和等待时间；三是精细化管理带来的运营效率提升，包括航线优化、航速优化、燃油管理等。从客户结构看，公司VLCC船队主要服务于中国大型石油公司和国际知名油商。国内客户包括中石油、中石化、中海油、中化集团等。国际客户包括壳牌、BP、道达尔、维多等全球顶级油商，这些客户对服务质量要求高，但运费水平也相对较高。这种"国内保货量、国际增弹性"的客户结构，使公司能够在不同市场环境下都保持较好的盈利能力。从航线布局看，公司VLCC船队覆盖全球主要石油贸易航线。中东-中国航线是最核心的航线，约占公司VLCC运力的40%；西非-中国航线约占20%；美洲-亚洲航线约占15%；其他区域航线约占25%。这种多元化的航线布局，使公司能够有效分散单一航线风险，并灵活调配运力应对市场变化。干散货运输业务——第二支柱干散货运输是公司的第二大核心业务，以VLOC（超大型矿砂船）为龙头，辅以好望角型、巴拿马型、灵便型散货船队。公司旗下的香港明华（HKMW）成立于1980年，在1980年代的航运危机中抓住市场机遇，迅速发展壮大，形成了独特的经营风格和风险管理能力。VLOC船队是公司干散货业务的核心竞争力所在。2015年，公司VLOC业务刚刚起步，仅有4艘船舶。通过与巴西淡水河谷的战略合作，公司迅速扩大VLOC船队规模。2016年收购恒祥控股后，VLOC船队增至8艘。2018年经贸船务资产并表后，VLOC船队猛增至28艘。到2021年，VLOC船队达到37艘（含参股和代管），规模位居世界第一。这一成就的取得，关键在于公司与淡水河谷签订的长期COA合同。这些长期COA合同具有几个显著特征：第一，合同期限长，通常为20-25年，覆盖了船舶的大部分使用寿命；第二，运价相对稳定，通常采用"成本加成"或"固定运价+通胀调整"的定价机制，避免了市场大幅波动的影响；第三，货源有保障，淡水河谷承诺每年提供固定的货运量，公司无需为货源担忧。这种"长约锁定"的商业模式，使VLOC船队成为公司利润的"压舱石"。2025年，VLOC船队维持在34艘（其中100%权益14艘，30%权益20艘）。虽然绝对数量略有下降，但船队质量持续提升。公司与淡水河谷的合作不断深化，不仅保障了基础货源，还围绕其在国内的混矿业务展开内贸、近洋运输业务，形成了内外联动的业务格局。此外，公司还在积极拓展与其他矿商的合作，以降低对单一客户的依赖。从业绩表现看，干散货业务虽然也会受到市场周期影响，但波动幅度明显小于油运业务。这主要得益于VLOC长期合同的稳定贡献和公司优秀的运营能力。除VLOC外，公司的干散货船队还包括好望角型、巴拿马型、灵便型散货船。这些船舶主要服务于国内沿海运输和东南亚近洋运输，经营方式以程租为主，灵活性较高。LNG运输业务——未来增长极LNG（液化天然气）运输是公司最具战略意义的业务布局。在全球能源转型的大背景下，天然气作为最清洁的化石能源，需求持续增长。国际能源署（IEA）预测，到2030年全球LNG贸易量将达到6亿吨，较2024年的4.12亿吨增长46%。这一趋势为LNG运输业提供了长期增长动力。公司LNG业务的发展经历了三个阶段。2015-2019年是参股探索期，公司通过CLNG（持股50%，与中远海能合资）参与LNG运输，主要投资亚马尔项目、澳洲项目等。这一时期，公司对LNG运输业务进行了充分的学习和积累，培养了专业的管理和技术团队，但投资较为被动，收益以投资收益形式体现。具体来看，2015年公司参股LNG船队6艘，2016年保持6艘，2017年增至11艘，2018年增至14艘，2019年增至21艘。2020-2022年是主动布局期。2020年，亚马尔项目5艘ARC7级北极型LNG船投运，公司开始获得稳定的投资收益。2022年，公司组建招商气运（CMLNG）平台，标志着公司正式进入自主投资、自主运营的新阶段。这一决策的战略意义重大：一方面，公司从被动参股转向主动布局，能够自主选择投资项目和合作伙伴；另一方面，公司开始建立自主的船队管理和运营能力，为未来的扩张奠定基础。2023-2025年是战略突破期。2023年，公司成功获取卡塔尔能源LNG运输项目（卡气二期），这是公司历史上最大的单笔LNG运输项目。卡塔尔是全球最大的LNG出口国，卡塔尔能源是全球最大的LNG生产商，与其建立合作关系，标志着公司正式进入国际LNG运输的第一梯队。2024年，公司大规模下单，全年新签12艘LNG船。至此，公司累计投资LNG船舶64艘，其中61艘已锁定15-25年期长期租约，成为国际LNG运输市场不可忽视的重要力量。从商业模式看，公司LNG业务采用"长约锁定+自主运营"的策略。长约锁定确保了收益的稳定性，15-25年期租约的IRR约为8-10%，虽然不算高，但胜在稳定持久，能够为公司提供穿越周期的现金流。自主运营则使公司能够积累运营经验，培养专业团队，为未来进一步扩大市场份额奠定基础。这种商业模式的风险相对较低，因为LNG船舶的造价高昂、建造周期长，且技术要求严格，新进入者难以快速扩张。从技术角度看，公司投资的LNG船舶代表了行业最高水平。卡气二期项目涉及的Q-Max型LNG船，单船运力达27.1万立方米，是全球最大的LNG船型。这些船舶采用最新的薄膜型液货舱技术，蒸发率低于0.1%，能效水平处于行业领先。此外，公司还在探索氨燃料、氢燃料等零碳技术的应用，为未来的绿色转型做准备。另外公司也在探索非锁定的LNG船的运营，从海能的LNG项目船收入来看，基本上7-8年就能实现造船投入全回收。虽然轮船没有披露每一个项目情况，但是不会比海能的差。也就是说，新签订的LNG项目收益要比老项目高，船舶锁定期从15-25年不等，如果是15年的船后续项目不续签，公司依旧能享受近10年的运营收益。汽车滚装业务——新兴亮点汽车滚装运输是比较具有成长性的业务板块。这一业务的战略价值，在于它抓住了中国汽车工业崛起和汽车出口爆发式增长的历史性机遇。2021-2025年，中国汽车出口量从约200万辆激增至709.8万辆，年复合增长率超过35%。这一增长主要由新能源汽车出口驱动，新能源汽车出口占比从2021年的约30%提升至2025年的约37%。从历史沿革看，公司汽车滚装业务源于2018年收购的深圳滚装。最初，这项业务主要从事国内沿海和长江的汽车滚装运输，服务的客户主要是国内汽车厂商，航线覆盖上海-大连、上海-广州等沿海航线以及长江流域。这一时期的业务相对稳定，但增长空间有限，年运输量约100-150万辆。真正的转折点出现在2021-2022年。随着中国汽车出口量开始爆发式增长，公司敏锐地捕捉到这一趋势，开始将内贸船舶调整至外贸航线。2021年，公司外贸滚装船队仅2艘，主要服务于东南亚航线。2022年，外贸船队扩大至4艘，新增欧洲航线。2023年，外贸船队进一步扩大至5艘，新增地中海航线。2025年，公司汽车滚装外贸业务实现历史性突破。全年外贸运营船队达到8艘，开辟了墨西哥、巴西、欧洲、地中海等多条远洋航线。特别是墨西哥和巴西航线的开通，抓住了中国新能源汽车出口南美的热潮。墨西哥已成为中国新能源汽车出口的最大目的地之一，近年来中国对墨西哥汽车出口超过40万辆。巴西则是南美最大的汽车市场，中国新能源汽车品牌如比亚迪、奇瑞、长城等在巴西市场份额快速提升。从竞争格局看，汽车滚装运输市场呈现"中国需求驱动"的特征。传统的汽车滚装船东如日本川崎汽船、挪威华轮威尔森等，主要服务于日本、韩国、欧洲汽车厂商的出口需求。随着中国汽车出口崛起，中国船东获得了历史性机遇。公司作为中国最大的汽车滚装船东之一，具有明显的先发优势。展望未来，公司汽车滚装业务的增长空间仍然巨大。公司已下单6艘9300CEU甲醇双燃料PCTC（汽车运输船），预计2026-2027年陆续交付。这些新船将采用绿色甲醇作为燃料，不仅符合IMO的环保要求，更能满足国际大客户对供应链碳中和的要求。此外，这些新船的载车量达9300辆，是现有船舶的2-3倍，单船运营效率大幅提升。预计到2027年，公司外贸滚装船队将扩大至10-12艘，年运输能力突破100万辆。集装箱运输业务——稳定器集装箱运输业务在公司业务组合中扮演着"稳定器"的角色。虽然规模不大，但盈利稳定性强，在市场波动时能够起到平衡作用。这一业务的存在，使公司在油运和干散货市场低迷时，仍能保持整体盈利。公司集装箱运输业务源于2021年收购的中外运集运。中外运集运成立于1998年，曾经是覆盖干线、支线和内贸的全航线老牌班轮公司。在其鼎盛时期，曾拥有超过50艘集装箱船，航线覆盖全球主要港口。经历过多轮市场周期的洗礼后，公司将其重新定位为亚洲区域内精品航线运营商。这一定位的核心逻辑是避开与中远海控、马士基等巨头的正面竞争。干线集装箱运输市场集中度极高，前十大班轮公司占据约85%的市场份额，新进入者难以获得规模优势。而区域市场则相对分散，且客户需求更加多样化，有利于差异化竞争。公司聚焦于日本、韩国、东南亚、澳洲等区域市场，提供高频次、准班率高的精品服务。从航线网络看，公司目前经营约20条区域航线，覆盖东亚、东南亚、南亚、澳洲等地区。主要航线包括中国-日本航线（约8条）、中国-东南亚航线（约6条）、中国-澳洲航线（约3条）等。这些航线的特点是运距相对较短（通常在2000海里以内）、班次密集（通常每周1-2班）、客户粘性高。从业绩表现看，集装箱业务呈现高收益、低波动的特征。2021年，受益于疫情后集装箱运价暴涨，公司集装箱业务实现净利润13.90亿元，ROE超过30%。2022年，市场继续高位运行，净利润约21亿元。2023年，随着市场回归常态，净利润回落至约8.7亿元，但仍保持盈利。2025年，抓住红海危机带来的区域市场机会，净利润回升至约12亿元。从战略价值看，集装箱业务的意义不仅在于其自身的盈利贡献，更在于它与公司其他业务的协同效应。例如，集装箱船队的航线网络可以为汽车滚装业务提供支线转运服务，形成"干线滚装+支线集装箱"的联运模式；集装箱运输的客户资源（如汽车厂商、电子产品厂商）可以为干散货运输提供交叉销售机会。这种协同效应虽然难以量化，但对于提升公司整体竞争力具有重要意义。穿梭油轮——潜在增长点2025年是招商轮船正式进入穿梭油轮领域的元年，以签约1+1艘Suezmax级DPST为标志公司油运业务从远洋干线向深海油田服务延伸，形成了VLCC+Aframax+DPST的油轮矩阵。穿梭油轮（DPST）需要具备在海上油田浮仓旁精准定位、靠泊、装卸的能力，技术复杂度远超普通油轮。此次和巴西国油签署的长期期租，收入稳定性高，类似于LNG船的模式，但是预计IRR更高。依托于海宏香港50余年的大型油轮管理经验，穿梭油轮有望成为未来十年新的增长点。四、未来5年发展路径预测展望未来5年，招商轮船的发展将受到多重因素的影响：全球能源转型趋势、航运业绿色变革、地缘政治格局变化、以及公司自身的战略执行能力。将有以下几个特征第一：LNG船队进入集中交付期到2030年，公司LNG船订单将全部交付，运营船舶数量将从2024年的22艘提升至64艘，按照每艘LNG船年均贡献净利润约0.3-0.5亿元估算，到2027年，LNG业务净利润有望达到18-20亿元，成为公司很大的利润来源。第二：油运继续贡献主要利润来源从油运市场看，2026-2028年预计将处于上行周期。支撑这一判断因素很多，但是底层因素主要有三个：首先，OPEC+逐步退出减产，全球原油产量增加，将带动油运需求增长。其次，全球石油需求在2030年前仍将保持增长，特别是亚洲地区需求强劲。中国、印度等新兴经济体仍处于工业化和城市化进程中，石油需求仍有增长空间。最后，VLCC船队老龄化加剧，供给端约束日益明显。新船交付有限，而老旧船舶面临拆解压力，船队增长缓慢。基于以上因素，我们预测这一阶段VLCC TCE有望维持在较高的水平，TCE每增加1万美金，油运利润增厚13亿左右。每年70-100亿+的净利润可以期待。第三：其他业务处于中等景气周期从其他业务看，干散货业务预计将保持向上运行，随着西芒杜铁矿的稳产，到2030年有望出货量达到1.2万吨。轮船的VLOC长期合同的稳定贡献，新造船下水将支撑干散货初步走高，而且干散货市场船舶老龄化问题也非常突出，可能会造成较大的供需失衡。预计业务净利润维持在15-25亿元/年。汽车滚装业务将受益于中国汽车出口的持续增长，特别是新能源汽车出口的高速增长。公司已下单的6艘9300CEU甲醇双燃料PCTC将于2026-2027年陆续交付，外贸船队规模将扩大至10-12艘，净利润有望从2025年的约2.29亿元增长至2028年的6-8亿元。集装箱业务预计将保持稳健运行，净利润维持在8-12亿元/年。虽然区域集装箱市场也存在周期性，但公司的精品航线定位使其具有较好的抗风险能力。综合来看，公司在没有任何板块进入躁热周期的情况下，下限平均年利润将从22-24年的50亿左右，增长至未来的70-85亿。如果油运、干散两个核心板块进入大周期，年利润有望升至100-170亿。随着利润的提升，公司负债进一步降低，财务费用同比下行，会释放更多利润。所以我也不赞成用传统周期行业估值去算轮船，成长路径清晰，资本开支高峰期过后，股东回报上来，可以给更高的估值。也希望大家不要只局限于轮船的油运业务，虽然这个业务确实出彩，但是其他业务也不逊色。管中窥豹，不能知其全貌。未来公司也将从一个以油运为主的传统航运企业，转型为以清洁能源运输为核心的现代化航运集团。最后，需要再次提醒，本报告仅供参考，不构成投资建议。航运业具有周期性特征，业绩可能随市场波动。投资航运的第一要务：敬畏航运！就如同我们面对波涛汹涌的大海一样，如果你不敬畏它，那么终将会被吞噬。
欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫招商轮船的发展历程和未来期望，来自赛艇队长。本文写自26年3月，修改于4月，发布于6月，仅做自己学习思考记录，不做任何推荐，请大家理性看待。文章目的是让大家全方位了解招商轮船这家公司，从而更好的判断公司价值。前言：招商轮船（股票代码：601872）是中国能源运输领域的龙头企业，隶属于百年央企招商局集团。回顾其发展历程，不仅是对一家企业的复盘，更是观察中国航运业在全球能源贸易格局演变中如何定位自身、把握机遇、应对挑战的绝佳窗口。从2014年国际油价断崖式下跌，到2022年俄乌冲突引发的能源危机；从2015年《巴黎协定》确立碳中和目标，到2025年全球能源转型加速；从传统的"石油世纪"向天然气、可再生能源并存的多元能源时代过渡——这些宏观背景的变迁，深刻塑造了招商轮船的战略选择。招商轮船从2015年还是一家以油轮运输为主业的单一型公司，到2025年已发展成为涵盖油运、干散货、LNG运输、汽车滚装、集装箱运输五大板块的综合能源运输集团，公司的业务边界、盈利结构、市场地位都发生了根本性变化。站在2026年的时点，回顾过去、展望未来具有特殊的意义。一方面，航运业正处于新一轮周期的起点，油运市场的景气度回升为公司业绩提供了支撑；另一方面，全球能源转型的大趋势不可逆转，LNG运输作为公司布局的战略性业务，正处于快速成长期，有望在中长期重塑公司的利润结构。一、发展历程：从单一油运到综合能源运输招商轮船的发展轨迹可以清晰地划分为三个阶段，每个阶段都有其鲜明的时代特征和战略主题。第一阶段：油运扩张与全球化布局（2015-2017年）2015年，招商轮船完成了对China VLCC的收购，这是公司发展史上的一个重要里程碑。主要整合了招商局集团旗下的大型油轮资产，使公司一举成为全球VLCC自有运力规模第一的船东。收购完成后，公司VLCC船队规模达到34艘，总载重吨超过1000万吨。这一规模优势不仅体现在运力绝对数量上，更体现在船队结构的优化上。收购的船舶多为2010年以后建造的新船，船龄年轻、油耗低、环保性能优良，符合当时IMO（国际海事组织）日益严格的环保法规要求。2016-2017年，国际油价在低位徘徊，中国作为全球最大的原油进口国，进口量持续增长。公司抓住了这一历史性机遇，通过VLCC船队的规模化运营，深度参与了"国油国运"战略。这一阶段的战略重点是做大。通过规模化扩张，公司确立了在VLCC领域的全球领先地位，形成了规模效应和品牌影响力。然而，单一依赖油运业务的风险也逐渐显现。2015-2016年，油运市场经历了从高位到低位的剧烈波动，公司盈利随之大幅波动。2015年公司实现归母净利润11.54亿元，ROE为10.01%；2016年净利润增至17.30亿元，ROE提升至11.91%；但2017年受市场低迷影响，净利润骤降至6.14亿元，ROE仅为3.89%。这一经历促使管理层开始思考业务多元化的必要性。到2017年底，自有VLCC增至44艘，租入VLCC 4艘，合计控制运力约1335万载重吨。与此同时，公司通过光租和代管方式扩大影响力，在国际油运市场的地位进一步提升。第二阶段：多元化战略启动（2018-2020年）2018年，招商轮船以发行股份购买资产的方式，收购了经贸船务下属的恒祥控股、深圳滚装、长航国际、经贸船务香港100%股权。这笔交易不仅解决了同业竞争问题，更重要的是实现了公司业务向干散货运输、滚装运输等领域的拓展。这次收购的战略价值在于：第一，获得了与巴西淡水河谷（Vale）合作的VLOC（超大型矿砂船）项目，使公司一举成为世界最大的VLOC船东之一。VLOC船型专门用于运输铁矿石，单船载重吨可达40万吨，是普通好望角型散货船的两倍以上。公司与淡水河谷签订的长期COA合同期限长达25年，为公司提供了极其稳定的现金流。第二，获得了深圳滚装的汽车滚装船队，为公司后来抓住中国汽车出口机遇奠定了基础。第三，获得了长航国际的沿海干散货和件杂货运输能力，形成了内外贸兼营的业务格局。2019-2020年，公司进一步通过子公司CLNG（与中海能合资）投资亚马尔LNG项目，进入LNG运输领域。亚马尔项目位于俄罗斯北极圈内，是全球最大的LNG项目之一。公司投资5艘ARC7级冰区加强型LNG船，用于运输亚马尔项目生产的LNG。虽然初期只是参股投资，但这是公司向清洁能源运输领域迈出的重要一步。这一阶段的战略重点是做宽。通过业务多元化，公司从单一油运向"油散并举"转型，降低了周期性风险。2020年，虽然疫情对全球航运市场造成冲击，但公司凭借多元化的业务组合，仍然实现了归母净利润27.77亿元，同比增长72.16%，充分验证了多元化战略的有效性。从财务数据看，2018年公司营业收入达到109.31亿元，较2017年的60.95亿元增长79.3%，这主要得益于经贸船务资产的并表。2019年营收进一步增长至145.56亿元，2020年达到180.73亿元。净利润方面，2018年为11.67亿元，2019年为16.13亿元，2020年跃升至27.77亿元，三年的ROE分别为6.40%、7.68%和10.73%，呈现稳步提升态势。第三阶段：综合能源运输成型（2021-2025年）2021年，是招商轮船历史上具有里程碑意义的一年。这一年，公司完成了对中外运集运的收购，正式进入集装箱运输领域。这笔交易完善了公司的业务版图，形成了"2+N"的业务格局——"2"指油运和干散货两大核心主业，"N"指LNG、滚装、集装箱三大补充业务。2021-2024年，全球能源市场经历了剧烈的波动。2021年下半年，全球供应链紊乱导致集装箱运价暴涨，CCFI指数一度突破3000点；2022年，俄乌冲突引发能源危机，油运市场出现脉冲式行情，VLCC TCE一度突破10万美元/天；2023-2024年，全球经济增长放缓，但区域市场分化明显。在这复杂的市场环境中，公司凭借多元化的业务组合，展现了强大的抗风险能力。特别想说的是，这一阶段公司在LNG运输领域取得了战略性突破。2022年，公司组建招商气运平台，开始自主投资、自主运营LNG运输业务。这一决策标志着公司从被动参股转向主动布局。2023年，公司成功获取卡塔尔能源LNG运输项目（卡气二期），这是公司历史上最大的单笔LNG运输项目。2024年，公司大规模下单，全年新签12艘LNG船。至此，公司累计投资LNG船舶64艘，其中61艘已锁定15-25年期长期租约，成为国际LNG运输市场不可忽视的重要力量。2025年，公司实现营业收入281.77亿元，同比增长9.22%；归母净利润60.12亿元，同比增长17.71%。与2015年相比，营收增长约3.2倍，净利润增长约3.4倍，总资产增长约1.3倍。成长是肉眼可见的。而且每一次周期的低点，都是轮船下一次成长的起点，每一次都是低价收购，周期高点的利润全部纳入公司。就跟木桶一样，一直在补短板，让公司的净利润越来越高。这和很多企业高位增发收购，最后一塌糊涂形成了鲜明对比。这是公司精细化运营的结果，希望公司不要因为这两年赚太多钱就飘了，还是要深耕价值，以合理甚至是低估的价格去收购资产，用好公司的每一分钱。二、财务表现：穿越周期的盈利能力财务数据是企业发展轨迹最客观的记录。通过分析2015-2025年的财务数据，我们可以清晰地看到招商轮船如何从一家依赖单一业务、业绩随周期剧烈波动的公司，成长为业务多元、盈利稳健的综合能源运输集团。营收与利润演变从营业收入看，公司经历了三个阶段的增长。2015-2017年，营收基本稳定在60-62亿元之间，这反映了公司当时以油运为主的业务结构，以及油运市场的相对平稳。2018-2021年，营收从109.31亿元快速增长至244.12亿元，年均复合增长率超过30%。这一增长主要得益于2018年收购经贸船务资产带来的并表效应，以及2021年收购中外运集运后的业务扩张。同期净利润也是跟随着水涨船高，在17年市场特别低迷的情况下也未亏损。18年之后净利润进入爆发期，逐年以30%+速度增长。2022-2024年，营收在257-297亿元区间波动，这反映了全球航运市场从疫情高点回落后的新常态。其中2022年，受俄乌冲突引发的能源危机推动，油运市场景气度大幅提升，净利润创下50.86亿元的历史新高（同比增长40.9%）。2023-2024年，虽然市场环境有所回落，但凭借多元化的业务组合和精细化的成本管控，净利润仍保持在48-51亿元的高位。2025年继续创历史新高。从数据可以看出几个重要趋势：第一，营收增长的波动性小于利润增长的波动性，这是因为不同业务板块的利润弹性不同。油运业务的利润弹性最大，干散货次之，LNG和集装箱相对稳定。第二，2018年后公司利润的周期性波动明显减弱，这得益于业务多元化。2017年净利润波动幅度超过60%，而2023-2024年波动幅度仅为5%左右。第三，2022-2024年，即使在油运市场周期性回落的情况下，公司仍能维持较高的利润水平，说明公司的盈利结构已经实现质的改善。资产与负债结构截至2025年底，公司总资产820.55亿元，较2015年的312.40亿元增长126.1%，年均复合增长率9.4%。资产规模的增长主要来自于业务扩张带来的船舶资产增加。2018年收购经贸船务资产使总资产从377.91亿元跃升至499.56亿元，2021年收购中外运集运使总资产从586.35亿元增至601.36亿元。资产结构也发生了显著变化。固定资产占比从2015年的约55%下降至2025年的约45%，这反映了公司业务从重资产的油运向相对轻资产的LNG运输（长期租约模式）转型。在建工程占比从2015年的约15%上升至2025年的约25%，这反映了公司LNG船舶订单的大规模增加。2025年在建工程的大幅增加，预示着未来几年LNG船队将进入集中交付期。从负债结构看，公司的财务杠杆保持稳健。资产负债率从2015年的56.1%上升至2018年的59.4%，随后逐步下降至2025年的47.6%。这一变化反映了公司盈利能力的提升和股东权益的积累。2015-2018年，公司处于快速扩张期，负债率相对较高；2019年后，随着业务逐步成熟和盈利积累，负债率持续下降。有息负债率保持在20-30%的合理区间。2015年有息负债约120亿元，2025年约150亿元，增幅远低于总资产增幅，说明公司的财务结构在优化。利息保障倍数从2015年的4.2倍提升至2025年的8.6倍，偿债能力显著增强。这一指标的提升，使公司在面对市场波动时具有更强的抗风险能力。盈利能力与股东回报从盈利能力指标看，公司的ROE呈现先降后升的趋势。2015-2017年，ROE从10.01%下降至3.89%，反映了油运市场的低迷和公司业务单一的风险。2018-2022年，ROE从6.40%逐步提升至17.11%，这得益于业务多元化带来的盈利结构改善和经营效率提升。2023-2025年，加权平均ROE为13.25%、13.21%、14.55%，在全球航运企业中处于领先地位。这一优势来源于两个方面：一是多元化的业务组合平滑了周期波动，二是长期合同的稳定贡献提供了可靠的收益基础。从股东回报看，公司始终坚持稳定的分红政策。2015-2025年，公司累计现金分红约120亿元，分红率平均约为43%。稳定的分红政策体现了公司良好的现金流管理能力和对股东的尊重。虽然分红率不是最高，但考虑到公司正处于LNG业务的快速扩张期，需要大量资本开支，这一分红水平是合理且可持续的。预计未来几年，随着LNG船队陆续交付并产生稳定现金流，公司分红能力将进一步增强。从整体财务数据来看，轮船整体非常稳健，但是又不失增长，一方面源于把握住了大部分的并购扩张机会，另外一方面新造船的规划也比较好，船龄也一直保持年轻化。股东回报虽然不是很高，但基于公司发展周期来看，还是可以的。未来希望能探索回购常态化的机制，让股东回报进一步增强。
Diese Woche mit Katharina Schipkowski und Verena Kern Fast jedes Kind weltweit ist einem der acht häufigsten Klimarisiken ausgesetzt, und fast jedes zweite Kind mehreren dieser Risiken. Davor warnt das UN-Kinderhilfswerk Unicef in seinem aktuellen "Children's Climate Risk Report" – und appelliert an die Regierenden, endlich ehrgeizige Maßnahmen zum Schutz des Klimas und damit zum Schutz der Kinder zu ergreifen. Energiearmut ist in den USA ein weit verbreitetes Problem. Bislang wurde noch nicht untersucht, was das für LGBTQ-Haushalte bedeutet. Eine neue Studie holt das nun erstmals nach. Ergebnis: Haushalte mit lesbischen, schwulen, bisexuellen, trans oder queeren Personen sind häufiger betroffen als alle anderen Bevölkerungsgruppen – mit einer Ausnahme. Der staatliche deutsche Strom- und Gaslieferant Sefe GmbH will bis 2050 Flüssiggas aus Kanada beziehen – obwohl Deutschland dann schon fossilfrei sein soll. Das Wirtschaftsministerium unter Katherina Reiche sieht darin kein Problem. -- Das klima update° wird jede Woche von Spender:innen unterstützt. Wenn auch du dazu beitragen willst, geht das HIER https://www.verein-klimawissen.de/spenden. Wir danken hier und jetzt - aber auch noch mal namentlich im Podcast (natürlich nur, wenn ihr zustimmt).
Joe Raia, Chief Commercial Officer at Abaxx Exchange, had a fun interview as he stopped by to give us an update. As a commercial tanker captain who moved into commodities trading, he has the knowledge and background to help guide the US Markets.Connect with Joe on his LinkedIn here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joe-raia-4982a417/Follow Joe on X here: https://x.com/JoeRaia5Check out Abaxx Exchange information here: https://abaxx.exchange/1. Abaxx Exchange & LNG Futures ContractsThe core focus is on ABEX's innovative physically deliverable LNG futures contracts. Joe Rea explains how these contracts are unique because they price actual waterborne LNG molecules rather than using proxy benchmarks like Henry Hub or Brent crude oil. The contracts cover three key regions: Gulf of Mexico (FOB), DES North Pacific Asia, and Northwest Europe. This addresses a major gap in the market where there was no transparent, regulated pricing instrument for LNG.2. Pricing Benchmarks & Market InefficienciesA significant discussion centers on why traditional pricing proxies fail for LNG. Henry Hub has remained at $3 for 15 years while waterborne LNG ranges from $11-15, and Brent crude oil has no correlation to delivered LNG in Asia. ABEX's contracts provide proper pricing correlation, which is critical for midstream suppliers to get fair value for their molecules.3. Global LNG Market DynamicsThe conversation covers Europe's energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the shift from long-term contracts (40-50% of the market) to spot and shorter-term contracts, and the EU's struggle to refill natural gas reserves to 85-90% capacity. There's also discussion of Russia's new icebreaker LNG carriers and potential sanctions implications.4. Expansion of LNG Production & InfrastructureTopics include the U.S. becoming the world's largest LNG producer, with 200 MTPA coming online this year. There's discussion of floating LNG terminals (FSRUs) as faster alternatives to building permanent facilities, and potential expansion in the Middle East with pipelines connecting to floating LNG infrastructure.5. Precious Metals TradingAbaxx has expanded beyond energy into metals, launching gold and silver futures contracts with physical delivery capabilities in Singapore vaults. The silver contract has been particularly successful, and these contracts address logistical issues that previously plagued gold trading between London and New York.6. Energy Security & U.S. PolicyA major theme is energy security, including discussions of the Jones Act, U.S. tanker capacity, and the importance of American-flagged vessels. The conversation highlights how a 60-day Jones Act waiver resulted in more U.S. energy exports to Puerto Rico in 2 months than in the previous 20 years, and the need to rebuild U.S. shipbuilding capacity.7. Geopolitical ImplicationsDiscussion of Middle East pipeline infrastructure (Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, UAE expansion, Kuwait's plans), Iran's territorial claims, and how geopolitical tensions affect energy markets and shipping routes through critical chokepoints like the Panama Canal and Strait of Hormuz.8. Technology & Market IntegrationAbaxx's integration with major pricing platforms like Refinitiv, Bloomberg, and TradingView to make pricing data accessible globally. The conversation emphasizes the importance of having standardized, transparent pricing that can be referenced in trading agreements.This episode essentially showcases how ABEX is revolutionizing commodity trading by creating transparent, physically backed futures markets that better serve the global energy and metals industries.Thank you, Joe, for your service in the United States Merchant Fleet as a Captain and for your continued service in helping balance the markets.Check out the Energy News Beat SubStack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energyAnd we have WellDatabase rolling in as a new sponsor. https://welldatabase.com/
US and Iranian officials have signed a 'memorandum of understanding' to end the war which began in March. Oil and LNG prices are expected to fall as ship traffic resumes.Dozens of Ukrainian drones have struck the biggest oil refinery in Russia's capital Moscow. Many parts of Russia have suffered fuel shortages in recent weeks.And Cuba's Communist government has approved reforms to try and revive its economy in the face US oil blockade.
The US and Iran are on the verge of a major deal aimed at reopening one of the world's most important shipping lanes. But even if an agreement is signed, how quickly can things return to normal? How soon can oil tankers and LNG shipments return to service? When might energy supplies begin to ease? And how long before drivers, businesses and households actually feel the benefit through lower prices? Markets may react within hours, but the real-world impact could take much longer.This is the latest episode of our weekly Power Players show. It's hosted by Rahul Tandon in the UK and our North America Business Correspondent Michelle Fleury in New York, in conversation with the BBC's Economics Editor Faisal Islam.Producer: Niamh McDermott Editor: Stephen Ryan Executive Producer: Justin Bones(Picture: People drive past an anti-U.S. billboard depicting U.S. President Donald Trump and the Strait of Hormuz, in Tehran, Iran, May 17, 2026. Credit: Majid Asgaripour/WANA - West Asia News Agency)
It is a wild day on the Energy News Beat Stand Up.Make no mistake, time will tell if the Strait of Hormuz is open, but do not underestimate the importance that the Bank of London and Lloyds of London play in opening the Strait of Hormuz. They want the war to continue, and are not happy if the war ends.As we hit Operational Bottoms for oil storage in the US it is a real problem, and President Trump ran out of time. I think that he has a plan and will get it done, but it will be done after the midterms.President Trump at the G7 has had some major impacts on the news cycle.1. Cushing, Oklahoma Oil Storage Crisis (Top Story)The podcast opens with the critical issue that Cushing—the "pipeline crossroads of the world"—has hit operational tank bottoms with only ~21.64 million barrels of crude. This is a major concern because refineries may not be able to access the oil they need, and the situation could spike oil prices. Cushing is the primary delivery and pricing point for WTI (West Texas Intermediate) futures.2. Global Oil Market Dynamics & Geopolitical TensionsStrait of Hormuz concerns: 20% of the world's oil passes through this strait, creating vulnerability to disruptionsIran's actions: Iran has pulled the trigger on controlling the strait, prompting neighboring Gulf states to seek alternative routesTanker movements: Iranian super tankers are slipping through blockades, with 6 million barrels already moved (likely to China)3. UAE's Strategic Independence from Strait of HormuzThe UAE is accelerating plans to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely by expanding pipelines from 1.7 to over 5 million barrels per day, with potential floating LNG terminals planned for the Gulf of Oman.4. Alternative Pipeline InfrastructureSaudi Arabia's east-west pipeline to the Red Sea (pumping ~7 million barrels/day)Plans to bypass the Suez Canal through the MediterraneanIraq's threat to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, forcing reliance on pipelines5. Qatar's LNG Export RestartQatar is preparing to restart LNG exports with tankers already positioned, which is critical for Europe's natural gas supply (especially as they lag behind in summer refilling).6. U.S. Power Grid CrisisSevere equipment shortage with power transformer lead times reaching 128 weeks (2.5 years)Some special orders taking up to 4 yearsNew transformer facilities being built (Hitachi in Virginia by 2028, Siemens in North Carolina)Recommendation for homeowners to invest in solar panels and off-grid capabilities7. California Energy & Infrastructure ProblemsRefinery closures: Only 7 refineries remain in California; losing one would spike gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel pricesHigh-speed rail project: Ballooned from $9.9 billion to $231 billion with companies relocating to Morocco due to regulatory burdenPort congestion: LA and Long Beach ports handling massive container volumes8. Oil Price ForecastsMorgan Stanley lowered Brent crude forecasts to $90 in Q3 and $80 in Q4Current prices: WTI at ~$76-77, Brent at ~$79.58, Natural gas at $3.169. AI & Grid InfrastructureDiscussion of potential AI bubble concerns and the need for grid validation tools before implementation.10. U.S. Reshoring & Industrial RecoveryThe Trump administration is working to reverse decades of intentional deindustrialization, though the process faces challenges.The podcast emphasizes that energy markets are at critical junctures with geopolitical tensions, infrastructure constraints, and strategic repositioning reshaping global oil and gas flows.1.Cushing, Oklahoma Oil Storage Hits Tank Bottom: Implications for Energy Markets, Consumers, and Investors2.Pain at the Pump: Can It Heal or Curse the Trump Administration?3.UAE is moving on plans to never use the Strait of Hormuz4.Qatar Returns Tankers in Preparation for Restarting LNG Exports5.Iranian Supertanker Slips Out of Chabahar, Crossing US Blockade as Tehran Moves Oil Ahead of Friday Deal Approvals6.Qatar Plans to Rapidly Restart LNG Output After Hormuz Opens – How will this impact Europe?7.Banks Slash Oil Price Forecasts After U.S.-Iran Breakthrough8.US Grid Equipment Shortage Deepens Impacting Repairs and New Installations9.Another California refinery closure will threaten national and global economies10.California High-Speed Rail project soars to $231 Billion – “We left to work in Morocco as it is a better work enviornment”Check out the Energy News Beat SubStack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energyAnd we have WellDatabase rolling in as a new sponsor. https://welldatabase.com/
After nearly four months, global commodity markets have shown both vulnerability and resilience amid the unprecedented disruptions caused by the Iran war. The European gas market is no exception. In this episode of Energy Evolution, host Eklavya Gupte examines the paradoxes shaping Europe's gas outlook. Gas prices in Europe have surged since the conflict erupted, yet remain far below the panic-driven highs of 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Beneath the surface, however, a new set of risks is emerging: gas storage is filling at its slowest pace in years, and the market's reliance on LNG has left it increasingly exposed to fresh supply shocks. Matt Hoisch, senior gas and LNG reporter at Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, speaks with Jack Sharples, senior research fellow on the gas research program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, about why prices haven't reached 2022 crisis levels, what current storage figures mean for winter volatility, and how the gas market's growing interconnectedness is amplifying uncertainty.
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about their paper on the outlook for LNG supply and its impact on European storage in the light of a potential ceasefire in the Gulf. The podcast analyses the impact of the lass of LNG supply from […] The post OIES Podcast – LNG, EU storage and the importance of a ceasefire in the Gulf appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
The BoJ hiked rates to 1.00%, as expected, while the RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35% following three consecutive 25bp rate hikes. Qatar is to restore half of its LNG output a month after the Strait of Hormuz opens, with output to reach 80% of full output within two months.US equity futures are mixed, while SPCX (+10.2% pre-market) looks set to surpass AMZN's market cap.DXY softer amid pressure in energy prices; JPY and AUD flat following rate announcements.Fixed income benchmarks are broadly higher, while JGBs fell as the BoJ paused purchase tapering from FY27.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, Import/Export Prices (May), Housing Starts (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Speakers including ECB's Lane, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
A federal court restores the 5% safe harbor for wind tax credits, Norway’s parliament pauses the 35 billion krone Utsira Nord floating wind program, and the crew digs into Australia’s battery boom and the looming blade technician shortage. Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly newsletter on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on YouTube, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us! Uptime324 Matthew Stead: [00:00:00] The Uptime Wind Energy podcast, brought to you by StrikeTape. Protecting thousands of wind turbines from lightning damage worldwide. Visit StrikeTape.com. And now, your hosts Allen Hall: Welcome to this edition of the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. I’m Allen Hall here with Matthew Stead, Rosemary Barnes, and Yolanda Padron. And our week starts off in the courtroom. And if you’ve been watching the news lately, there’s a pretty substantial IRS case involving large-scale wind and solar having to do with the, uh, production tax credit and, uh, investment tax credit at the same time on the safe harbor, 5% safe harbor rule. Uh, a federal judge handed the wind industry and solar industry a pretty substantial legal win that could reshape how the [00:01:00] projects qualify for tax credits. So a judge up in, uh, the District of Columbia vacated IRS Notice 2025-42. So if you remember that, uh, from a- about a year or so ago, uh, f- it found that the, that notice was arbitrary and capricious under the Administrative Procedure Act. The notice, which was issued following a July 2025 executive order, had eliminated the 5% safe harbor for wind projects, uh, a provision developers have relied on since about 2013 to establish construction start dates without breaking ground. The court found the IRS failed to justify removing it, ignored industry comments, which I had read, and I agree with that, and gave no reason for treating wind differently f- than other clean energy technologies. So That his executive order came down and said, “Hey, we don’t like wind. [00:02:00] IRS, write a rule and make it hard for wind to get installed in the United States.” And so they dutifully did it, but a court is throwing it out. This has some pretty significant implications because if you hadn’t broken ground before this ruling, I think the– what was happening was be- if you hadn’t broken ground by July 4th, your project wouldn’t qualify for some tax credits. But now, if you have 5% safe harbor, you still are in the game, at least for now. Now, Wanda, that’s gonna make a big difference to asset managers and developers, won’t it? Yolanda Padron: Yeah, it’s really exciting. I think it opens up the, the playing field for, for some of these projects that might be a little bit behind schedule. Um, of course, a lot of teams had to change their plans and their pipeline when, um, you know, the big, beautiful bill passed and, I mean, it’s– of course, it adds a little bit of additional volatility, right, to, to wind and, and solar in the US, but it’s exciting to see at least things for, [00:03:00] for those of us that are in the wind and solar side, the, it’s a little, little bit of, of hope there. Allen Hall: And Matthew, uh, even in terms of opening up o-o-operations and, uh, getting contracts signed, this should make a big difference in sort of opening the floodgates a little bit. Although there is a short timeframe. We’re, we’re recording on, what, what is today? June 10th. So you have, in theory, less than 30 days before the July 4th deadline, but hopefully this stays. You think there’s a chance this just gets completely, uh, wiped out, the executive order and the IRS notice and- It’s back to what we remember for the, for the last, ooh, 12, 13 years? Matthew Stead: Uh, yeah. I’m, I’m, I’m hopeful, and I, I agree with Yolanda. I think you, you said it really well. Um, I think this is a, a glimmer of hope in, um, a sometimes gloomy, um, environment. So I think that’s great. In terms of going back to where it was, um, I mean, I guess my observation has been that, [00:04:00] you know, things in the US were a bit, um, distorted. You know, distorted through the, the PTC, um, and the whole repowering thing after 10 years is quite a distortion. So I think, um, you’re not necessarily going back to the good old days, um, might be the way, what will happen. Allen Hall: I think there is a lot of people actively trying to dig holes at the moment, and I, I’m sure they’re gonna continue to do that. Yolanda, do you th- you think anybody’s gonna stop and kinda say, “Oh, we have the 5% rule. We’re, we’re good”? Do you think, or you think they’re gonna still go ahead and really start construction and then just keep things continually moving on site? Yolanda Padron: I don’t think they, they can really stop, right? Because you, you don’t know if, if anything strange happens. A lot of people didn’t think the, a lot of the provisions in the big beautiful bill were gonna, were gonna see the light of day, and they did. Um, but it does, I really hope it brings at least a little bit of breathing room for some people. I know it’s, it must be… I mean, I have some friends in development, and they’re, they’re q- a little [00:05:00] bit stressed right now just with everything going on. Um, so, so I really hope for them at least they, you know, if, if they’re a little bit behind schedule, then it, it’ll be, it’ll still be fine. Allen Hall: Delamination and bondline failures in blades are difficult problems to detect early. These hidden issues can cost you millions in repairs and lost energy production. CIC-NDT are specialists to detect these critical flaws before they become expensive burdens. Their nondestructive test technology penetrates deep into blade materials to find voids and cracks traditional inspections completely miss. CIC-NDT maps every critical defect, delivers actionable reports, and provides support to get your blades back in service. So visit cicndt.com because catching blade problems early will save you millions[00:06:00] Norway’s Storting has voted to pause the 35 billion Norwegian krone support program for floating offshore wind at Utsira Nord. The Conservative Party secured a parliamentary majority for the external quality assurance review, a socioeconomic analysis, and a technology development assessment, all before the Storting will authorize any commitments. Equinor and Vårgrønn, along with EDF and Deepwind Offshore, each hold allocated 500-megawatt areas and were preparing to compete for that subsidy. Equinor says the project will continue for now. I think everybody is saying that at the moment. But, uh, Equinor cannot rule out consequences as framework uncertainty compounds in the already challenging nature of floating offshore wind development. So Utsira Nord is a massive project. So it’s, it’s about three and a half billion US dollars [00:07:00] to go do this. We had Mads Furuseth and Anders Naslund about a year or so ago, maybe a little bit longer, talking about the project and how big it was and how important it was that Norway did this for floating offshore wind. But with this, uh, recent change in the parliament of Norway, it does seem like they’re slowly going to try to kill it by putting in a number of, uh, reviews, which is how bureaucracies tend to kill things. Is put it under six, seven, eight reviews, different committees. They all take time to get together. They have to put out a report. It could be two, three years from now. At that point, the world has completely changed, and everybody’s moved on. Does that seem like the outcome here at the moment? Matthew Stead: Yes. Allen Hall: In my mind, there’s really two big areas for floating offshore, which UK, right? That there, there’s some massive projects there, Green Volt being one of them, and then there was Sue & Nord. So between the two, I feel like the, the UK one was going to [00:08:00] happen. The question whether the world was gonna move towards floating offshore wind was gonna happen up in Norway. If Norway decided to do it and could get it developed, and it has the capability to do it because, because they have that skill set, uh, right there in Norway. If they could do it in Norway, everybody in the world would learn from it and figure out how to do it. Does this really set back floating offshore wind globally? Matthew Stead: Yeah. I mean, going back to what I said before, and I, I’ll defer to Rosie on this as well, but, um, when I was at, at Blades Europe, um, one of the, one of my long-term contacts, um, y- was in floating wind, um, and had, um, left the industry. He basically said i- in his view that the offshore wind industry was slowly, um, in decline or slowly dying. Um, so I’m just wondering if this is just evolution of viability of offshore wind. Rosemary Barnes: Is offshore wind in decline? I think if you look globally, it’s, it’s not in decline. I, I haven’t looked in, in depth at the figures just based on what, you know, [00:09:00] headlines I’ve seen and podcasts I’ve heard, but I think that globally it’s still on the rise. It’s just that- It’s only in Europe that things are really moving with speed, right? Like, people were expecting heaps of growth in the US and now no- nobody expects that. Floating offshore wind, it’s… I th- I still think it’s too early to say. There are plenty of countries that don’t have any good energy options besides, um, floating offshore wind, like Japan. What their energy transition looks like is gonna depend a lot on their culture and what people think, ’cause, like, if you go through, like, the engineering solutions that Japan could have, the ones that make the most sense from an engineering point of view are not popular at all, are not politically viable. Like, Japan could easily have a subsea cable connecting it with, um, with China, for example, or Korea, but I don’t think anybody, anybody thinks that that will ever happen because, you know, politically it’s, it’s very far from being possible. What else could they have? Geothermal. They’ve got heaps of [00:10:00]geothermal resources, like really good traditional geothermal resources, but my understanding is that it’s super unpopular because their onsen, um, community doesn’t want it. Uh, my understanding is that they’re worried that if you put geothermal, um, if you exploit geothermal resources, then the onsens will not be hot anymore, and again, my limited research understanding is that it’s not true. It’s different resources. The two aren’t connected in any way. Um, and yeah, there’s actually a community geothermal, um, facility near Fukushima. I’m trying really hard to get over there, but I’m, I’ve got a roadblock at the moment because, uh, n- no one there speaks English, so I need to find somebody to, to come with me and, you know, I’ll have one, one day to try and get there on the fast train and back to Tokyo in, in a single day. So it’s, it’s a bit of a stretch, but I’m gonna try. But anyway, so yeah, what have we… We’ve ruled out, like, subsea cables, ruled out geothermal. Floating wind is good. Allen Hall: Well, speaking of Fukushima, [00:11:00] there’s been a more recent push in Japan to start up some of the nuclear facilities. So after the tsunami, was that 2012, 2014 when that happened? It was a while ago. Uh, when the tsunami happened and h- had that, uh, nuclear accident, they, they s- shut down all the nuclear facilities in Japan, but it does seem like they’re trying to restart some of them And, and maybe it’s just the demand for energy and, and they’re trying to weigh that off with offshore wind or floating offshore wind. At what point, you know, which one do you choose? It has to be driven by cost and availability. Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. And so Fukushima, I just looked it up, it was 2011. Um, and yeah, so I mean, I think it is very fair that they had a reaction to that and they wanted to put the handbrake on nuclear at that time, or they did more than put the handbrake on, they did like a handbrake turn. Allen Hall: They shut it down. Rosemary Barnes: So, and it, you know, it’s gradually ramping up. I think that their target for nuclear now is to, to regain, um, 20% of their electricity from [00:12:00] nuclear by 2040, something like that. It was 30% prior to that incident. Um, so that will be part of it, but it’s not, um, it’s not all of it. And then even if you think of, uh, okay, so forget climate change, just, you know, we want, Japan just wants energy and they don’t care about climate change, you know, ’cause that, that, that could be true. What are their ch- choices for that? They import a whole bunch of… They, they import nearly all their energy. Everything that’s not nuclear basically is, is imported. Um, coal, but a lot of LNG, and, you know, that is not exactly an appealing prospect at the moment either. It’s not secure. Prices are very volatile. We’ve had, like, two fossil fuel shocks in the last, what, like four years or something like that, and how many more, how many more are we g- are we going to have? You know, like energy security is important, totally separate from climate change issues. So I don’t think we need to rely on Japan, like, you know, [00:13:00] steadfastly staying the course because their, their existing o- opportunities are not, are not great for fossil fuels either. Allen Hall: I don’t know what country’s gonna stay the course right now, really. Maybe the UK? Rosemary Barnes: Oh, I think it’s- Countries that have other reasons for going to renewables are the ones that are gonna stay the, stay the course. Um, and there are plenty of examples of countries where it just, it is by far the easiest, cheapest, fastest option to get more electricity. Um, you know, like all of Africa, for example, is, is facing that as a, uh, a better development path than trying to build big, um, fossil fuel power plants. But even that, you know, like in India, they’re making a huge transition, Pakistan, not to mention Australia, where now batteries are having more of an impact on electricity prices than gas is. So our electricity prices now finally are dropping, um, this year for the first time because of how many batteries have come on and are now, you [00:14:00]know… Like they’ve just flattened. The evening price peak used to be on average about, like, I think $400 or something dollars a megawatt hour, and now it’s like 100. In one year we had that, we had that change, yeah, just from the amount of batteries that have come on in the last year or two. Allen Hall: Why does that make such a big difference in the price of electricity, the battery aspect? Rosemary Barnes: Because, so the way that Australia… Australia’s electricity market is pretty similar to Texas, so if you understand that, then you can probably understand Australia’s. But, you know, at any five-minute interval, people, like, they know how much demand there’s going to be, and then people are bidding in how much they would supply electricity for in that five minutes, in real time as well. It’s not like day ahead or anything like that in Australia. The, like, last one they need is what everybody gets paid. So, like, solar power is gonna bid in at, like, you know, practically zero, um, or maybe negative prices actually if they’ve got power purchase agreements in place. And then, you know, wind a little bit more, and then coal, uh, you know, a, a bit [00:15:00] more than that, and then gas, the open cycle gas turbines, the peakers, they’re very expensive. They’re bidding in at 400, $400 a megawatt hour. If there’s enough batteries that that gas doesn’t need to bid in, then all of a sudden we don’t have the gas price that everybody has to pay. We have the battery price that everyone has to pay, and that is very, very cheap and will become cheaper as there’s more of them in the, in the system. So it’s like a threshold event. You, you know, um, even if you’re using only a tiny bit of gas, if you need any gas at all, even like, you know, one megawatt of gas, everybody gets paid the gas price. If you just get a little bit more battery in and you don’t need it anymore, bam, the price just falls. So that’s what we… We’ve passed that threshold now. Allen Hall: Isn’t that where the UK is trying to get, is to get past that threshold where renewables are that last addition to the grid and kick off peaker plants and some expensive other- fuel sources. That’s I, I [00:16:00] think where everybody’s gone because they have the same system where the, the last one in is what sets the price for everybody. Rosemary Barnes: Yeah. The UK’s a little bit different because one, they’re connected to Europe, and two, they’ve got nuclear, so they do have that kind of base load. Allen Hall: Let’s go down the rabbit hole just for a second. So if the peaker plants don’t come on, that means that the battery electricity supplying the grid is pretty low in price. It seems like they are losing money on their investment in the battery That they were hoping the price would be higher. Because if the peaker plants are still going on, that would be a $400 price and they’re gonna come in at, like, 350, so that would make sense. It, it helps pay off the battery investment. But if they’re dropping the price down from 400 to 100, it would seem like the battery investment may not be a, a wise decision. Rosemary Barnes: For sure they’re making less money, but it was– they were making crazy profits for the first little, the first few, few years of, you know, grid-scale batteries. And even [00:17:00] home batteries, people were making a l- a lot of money off that, and it was crazy. Like, I’m on some, um, some Reddit subreddits about, uh, you know, people with home batteries and- Allen Hall: Slash battery? Rosemary Barnes: Matt probably is too. Matt’s a Beta G enthusiast, so I’m sure that he is just as excited as me. But anyway, so on one of these subreddits, you know, people used to talk about, “Oh, I made 100 bucks last night,” um, or, or whatever, you know, just a household. And now all the posts are complaining about there’s been no price spikes all year. You know, I thought that I was gonna make heaps of money off my battery, but people are really change- changing how they think of it. And now it’s like… And l- like I want– used to want to do this. I don’t have solar panels yet ’cause we need a new roof, and I’ve been waiting a few years to, one, live in a house that I own, and then two, get a freaking new roof. Um, and I thought I’m gonna just, like, cover it in solar panels, get a huge battery, and I’m gonna be an energy trader in my free time and make heaps of money, and now that is [00:18:00] not the strategy anymore. The strategy is to just reduce your bills to the m- the minimum that you can. Um, that’s basically, that’s basically it. So you are right that some of this arbitrage is, um, the opportunity’s over, and that it will be less, um, exciting for, uh, opportunity for people to put more, more batteries in. Matthew Stead: Just to add to that, through the middle of the day quite often there’s, uh, negative pricing. So if you’ve got a battery, you’re being paid to charge through the middle of the day. So that actually takes away some of the pain from having a lower, a lower price, um, during the peak. Rosemary Barnes: But the thing about negative prices is that you need coal power plants for them to be… Like, the only reason we have such pervasive negative prices is not because solar plants have PPAs that are, you know, make it worthwhile for them to generate even when the price is slightly negative. The real thing is that coal power plants don’t want to turn down below, I don’t know, yeah, like 20, 30% during the middle of the day. They have to be on if they want to make money in the evening, and that means that they bid in at, like, [00:19:00] negative 50, um, so that people– so that they can stay running. And that’s where the bulk of our negative prices come from. So As coal power plants close, those negative prices will go away. Um, and when they close, we should get some better evening price spikes again. So, you know, like nothing ever stays the same for long, which is why it is such a fascinating hobby to have, being interested in the electricity market, because it’s never the same from one year to another. You’ll never understand it, ’cause it’s never, it never stays the same long enough to really get your head around it. Allen Hall: You need other hobbies. You really do. Matthew Stead: A friend of mine works in trading, and, uh, he said, “As long as there’s volatility, there will be progress.” So much like what Rosie was saying is the more volatile it is, the more opportunity there is for people to come in, um, and change it. Allen Hall: I just don’t know how the battery thing plays out once that threshold is reached. When you have more batteries on the system and you knock down the price that [00:20:00] much, I think battery sales, industrial batteries really slow down because they’re all looking for that quick ROI And they’re not gonna get it. Rosemary Barnes: You have to wait for all of the coal to close before you would find out what’s the right amount of batteries to have in the, in the grid. Allen Hall: Yeah, yeah, yeah. That, I totally agree there, yeah. Yolanda Padron: You’d still get, like in extreme weather events and stuff, you’d still get a big price spike, right, for all these batteries. Allen Hall: Back to Matt’s point, more volatility. Rosemary Barnes: If you want the market to respond, you need to give enough incentive to invest in assets so you’ll have enough when it’s needed. And because it’s really infrequent, then it has to be a super high price to, um, bring on enough investment. And will this system… The system has worked absolutely, you know, pretty well in Aus- Australia at least. Will it continue into the future with more variable prices and renewables? I, I don’t know, and the government is starting to do some things like, uh, you know, like a lot of [00:21:00] electricity markets have, um, not just energy markets but also capacity markets where you will pay a battery or a gas plant something to be on standby basically, um, so that if there is, um, if there’s a shortfall then they, then they have to respond. So in Western Australia they have that, but across the east of Australia th- they currently do not, do not have that. It’s energy only. Allen Hall: Really? How do you not have capacity payments? Rosemary Barnes: The majority of their profits are made in just a few hours a year when there are those price spikes, so that’s, that’s h- part of their business case. Allen Hall: I mean, there, there is arbitrage happening on the electricity grid. That’s not the best place to be arbitraging things because you will have players that won’t provide electricity just to drive up the price. Rosemary Barnes: Uh, and it happens in Australia too, but, um, you know, because batteries are such a distributed resource, it, it will become harder and harder to do that when, you know, the, um, the ownership of these batteries is, you know, households as well as, um, yeah, as well as [00:22:00] big companies. Matthew Stead: So offshore wind, I was talking to an OEM a, a little while ago and, uh, talking about blade repairs for offshore wind, you know, floating, floating wind. Um, so specifically floating wind. The OEM was extremely concerned about floating wind, um, because it makes it very, very, very hard to change blades. So the story was that if you’ve got an offshore floating platform, you’re basically gonna have to tow the wind turbine back to port to change a, a blade. Rosemary Barnes: They see that as a, as a pro, not a con though. Yeah. That, that’s because it’s very hard to… Like, it’s not only floating offshore wind where it’s very hard to remove a, a blade out at sea, like fixed bottom offshore wind, that’s incredibly expensive to remove a blade. So floating is like, well, you can just tow it back to shore and then you can do it all in the port. I, I, you’re looking skeptical, Matt, and I’m also skeptical about how it actually plays out. I know that, um, what was it? The, [00:23:00] the one- An EOL project off the coast of Scotland. I can’t remember what it’s called now. Like what, the first big one, the big wind farm, a floating offshore wind farm Allen Hall: HiWind Scotland Rosemary Barnes: They had a, a problem. I don’t know if it was a serial issue or also, like it’s the first big wind farm, and there might have been like some operating condition they weren’t aware of that caused some problems. They had to tow back everything to port, and they stayed there for months and months. So like maybe, maybe close to a year or over a year, I’m not sure. It was a really long time. And so, um, yeah. But then, you know, like what’s the alternative? If that had happened out at sea, it would’ve been more expensive. If, it still would’ve been shut down, not doing anything, and you would’ve had like helicopters out there every single day bringing teams and, um, you know, huge vessels with cranes and yeah. So like it’s, maintenance at sea is never good. Allen Hall: But the whole point of the HiWind project was to get some of these problems figured out, and one of them was just towing it back to port and [00:24:00] doing major repairs or component exchanges make sense. I think it’s a, it’s a lesson well learned, and we’ve moved on. I guess the question is, does offshore, floating offshore in particular, have much of a future if Norway’s not willing to do it? Matthew Stead: I think it’s a good comparison with, um, data centers in space. Rosemary Barnes: You know where else they’re planning to put data centers? Not just space and offshore, also like, um, underwater ones, like on the deep ocean floor, um, on the moon somewhat. Like there’s an actual company that is apparently developing a, a data center on the moon Allen Hall: As wind energy professionals, staying informed is crucial, and let’s face it, difficult. That’s why the Uptime podcast recommends PES Wind magazine. PES Wind offers a diverse range of in-depth articles and expert insights that dive into the most pressing issues facing our energy future. Whether you’re an industry veteran or new to wind, PES Wind has the high-quality content you need. Don’t [00:25:00] miss out. Visit peswind.com today. Well, in this quarter’s PES Wind magazine, there are a number of great articles, and if you haven’t downloaded your copy, you should do that at peswind.com. There’s a good article from Global Blade Services USA, and it’s talking about the technician problem and how it’s not gonna, it solve itself, obviously. But Global Blade Service is putting some numbers to it. And Rosemary, this is really directed at you. Blades represent roughly 20% of the total, total turbine capital cost and are the leading driver of unplanned downtime. Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, 40% of O&M. Allen Hall: Right, and 75% of all blade repairs are already handled outside OEM warranty. That number seems really high, but maybe after the warranty expires? Rosemary Barnes: Do you say 30% of, of repairs are repaired under warranty? That’s, uh, unexpectedly high from my point of view. [00:26:00] But, you know, how would I know? No one’s getting in touch with me if, you know, they’ve got a problem with their blades and it just got fixed under warranty. Then they’re not paying a consultant to come sort it out. I only, I’m, I’m only there when the warranty is nearly up or it’s already over. Allen Hall: So they, they’re saying that the, the ratio’s even gonna grow more towards out of warranty repairs. But the problem is having technicians. And the deeper problem is developing all those technicians in time as that need grows. Uh, reaching full structural repair competency takes a rope access technician eight to 10 years. A basket technician is five to seven, and a factory technician is four to five years, meaning the workforce, uh, the industry needs for the next decade has to start training now. I, I think we’re seeing this in full force. I- the issue is keeping good people in the industry as it fluctuates up and [00:27:00] down all the time and is very seasonal. Because there are really good rope technicians out there who know what they are doing, and it does take a, a minimum of three years to be competent. And then to be that lead person, it takes four or five solid. And to be, uh, the, the relied-upon person, especially for some of the more complicated repairs, it’s gonna be six, seven, eight years before you’re there. It’s just an exposure thing. Are we in a technician crisis? Rosemary Barnes: Crisis is maybe a little bit inflammatory, but, uh, we’re in a technician challenge Matthew Stead: But it’s a pretty, it’s a pretty basic topic, Allen, isn’t it? Like, um, you know, there’s more and more wind turbines, there have to be more and more technicians. It takes time to train. So, you know, it’s, it’s just, it’s pretty much basic maths and, um, you know, it’s like te- you know, tradies to build houses. Um, you know, unless you’ve got the tradies, you can’t build houses in a cheap way. Yolanda Padron: Part of the issue is that, you know, say there’s [00:28:00] 10 technicians that are available in the area, right? Then you … maybe they work under two different companies, and then one company goes bankrupt, so then they all work with the same company. Another company pops up, or someone gets kicked off site from the OEM side, and then a month later they’re back with the third party. And then it’s just really difficult to keep track of kind of who’s still there and who’s not, because some people have the certifications and maybe they’re not really, really great at what they do, or other people have a lot of training and a lot of experience, and it’s just difficult to track exactly, you know, where they are now. I know that the, the strategy here oftentimes is you’ll find one person that you like and you kind of follow him around, or follow them around whatever company they’re, they’re with at the moment, and then just use that company. Matthew Stead: The other point I was going to make is that there’s also the seasonality, isn’t there? So you know, if you’ve got a great, a great technician, when it’s cold, they can’t earn cash from [00:29:00] repairing blades. Rosemary Barnes: Aren’t they hired as, like, seasonal workers in America and they just don’t get paid for part of the year? That’s not how it’s done here. I mean, I guess we don’t have the climate where you have to, like, totally shut down, so they’re not, like, sitting around getting paid for nothing. But, like, that’s a really unim- unappealing feature of the of the, um, field, isn’t it? If you’re deciding what you wanna, what kinda job you wanna do, you want one where you can get paid for 12 months out of the year, not just, I don’t know, like eight or whatever it is. Matthew Stead: I know there’s been a lot of discussion between, like, Australian US repair companies of, like, shipping technicians down here during the Northern Hemisphere winter and vice versa, and it gives, you know, chance of exploring the world. But, you know, if you’ve got kids and family, you’re not gonna necessarily wanna do that either. Rosemary Barnes: It’s such a tiring job, though. I don’t… Like, there’s, um, I think it’s fine if people do it for, like, a hard 10 years and then, um, yeah, move on to… Because you obviously learn a lot as a technician, so y- you know, like, there’s a lot of office jobs that you would be really good at [00:30:00] because you had that physical experience. But yeah, like, I, I do think that there’s heaps of young people that are traveling the world being wind turbine technicians. Yolanda Padron: At least in Texas, I know a lot of rural areas where they don’t necessarily have a lot of opportunities to get higher education, and so going to be a technician is a good route for them to then go into a larger part of the industry, um, to, to kinda get a head start there. Um, and they get a lot of really valuable skills, and oftentimes, like you said, Rosie, they’ll, they’ll get picked up by, um, by the owners or the OEMs or someone, um, because of their experience there. But it, but it is quite a bit of, of hard work and, and physical, physical labor. I climbed one tower and I was sore for two weeks, so really, really not my cup of tea. Rosemary Barnes: I’m always, like, so excited to, to be climbing towers ’cause I only do it, like, you know, sometimes no times in a year, sometimes twice a year. Um, yeah, so, like, I’m really excited to go climb, and it’s really cool the first day, and then the second day it’s like, “Oh, this harness is [00:31:00] so heavy. Am I really putting this on again? Oh my God.” Yeah, so it’s, uh, it’s ob- obviously you get used to it if you, um, if you do climb a lot. The last, uh, last site that I was at, a lot of the technicians were just climbing the ladders so that they wouldn’t have to, you know, go to the gym afterwards. So there’s a lift there, but they use the ladder because then they get their cardio for the day. So, you know, they’ve obviously got some surplus energy. Allen Hall: I think it is kind of a myth outside the US, uh, uh, seasonal workers, uh, at least in Europe, I haven’t seen a lot of seasonal workers. It doesn’t mean they don’t exist, of course. But in the United States, there’s a lot of seasonal workers from construction and all kinds of other industries. People figure it out And it, it’s a lot more common than I think y- being an engineer you think it is, but there are a lot of seasonal workers. So being a, a wind technician is not a bad job. Rosemary Barnes: I guess they’re just getting [00:32:00] paid extra for the time that they’re working and they just know they’re used to budgeting to cover the few months off. Allen Hall: They have a winter job. They’ll, they have employment. They already have it lined up where when it gets cold outside, they have someplace else to go. Back into construction for a few months. They’re maybe driving a truck or doing other things that, that bring in income. They have it pretty well figured out. When– At least the technicians I’ve talked to seem to have a, a plan about it, and they’re not sitting by the television for six months. That’s not what’s happening. It, that there’s a lot of employment opportunities here in the States, and so they, they’re pretty nimble. So if you haven’t read this article or a number of our other great articles in PES Wind, you should go to peswind.com right now and download a copy today. That wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you. Reach out to us on LinkedIn, and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. [00:33:00] For Yolanda, Rosemary, and Matthew, I’m Allen Hall, and we’ll see you here next week on the Uptime Wind Energy podcast.
After nearly four months, global commodity markets have shown both vulnerability and resilience amid the unprecedented disruptions caused by the Iran war. The European gas market is no exception. In this episode of Energy Evolution, host Eklavya Gupte examines the paradoxes shaping Europe's gas outlook. Gas prices in Europe have surged since the conflict erupted, yet remain far below the panic-driven highs of 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Beneath the surface, however, a new set of risks is emerging: gas storage is filling at its slowest pace in years, and the market's reliance on LNG has left it increasingly exposed to fresh supply shocks. Matt Hoisch, senior gas and LNG reporter at Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, speaks with Jack Sharples, senior research fellow on the gas research program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, about why prices haven't reached 2022 crisis levels, what current storage figures mean for winter volatility, and how the gas market's growing interconnectedness is amplifying uncertainty.
Methane is the second-most important greenhouse gas, after carbon dioxide. It has accounted for roughly 30% of human-induced global warming since the 19th century. But it is also a valued commodity, used to heat homes and cook food, provide raw materials for industry and keep the lights on. Every molecule leaked is energy wasted and money lost. The IEA estimates that about 200 billion cubic meters per year could be saved for productive uses by reducing leakage and flaring in the oil and gas industry. That is roughly one fifth of US supply, over a third of the global LNG trade, and nearly twice the volume exported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. Half of all abatement opportunities have a positive or zero net cost. The technology to cut emissions by 75% exists today. So why are methane emissions from oil and gas still so large?Host Ed Crooks is joined by TJ Conway, Principal at RMI's Climate Intelligence Program, to explore what it will take to tackle the problem. TJ walks through RMI's approach: first, better understanding where emissions are and how large they are, including the role of super emitters, sources above 100 kilograms per hour that can account for half of total leakage, and then driving change through market mechanisms, corporate engagement, finance, and capacity building. He then talks about the key issue for future methane emissions reductions: the demand side. Creating a functioning market for differentiated, lower-emissions gas requires that buyers, including utilities, industrial companies and hyperscales using gas-powered data centres, can credibly account for those purchases in their emissions inventories. That architecture is still being built.Ed and TJ also dig into the EU Methane Emissions Regulation, now entering its implementation phase ahead of methane intensity thresholds taking effect by 2030. The technical challenges are considerable: tracing emissions from source to importer through complex supply chains like the US pipeline network, where a single LNG cargo may blend gas from low-intensity offshore fields and high-intensity Permian basin production. RMI has proposed a hybrid traceability approach to solve those challenges. The episode also covers methane abatement finance. Financial institutions with climate goals are now often relucatant to invest in oil and gas operations, even for emissions reduction. RMI's Methane Finance Working Group, launched at COP28 alongside the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter, has developed guidance for financing structures to overcome that obstacle. It aims to unlock financing to meet a need estimated at 100 to 200 billion dollars.TJ closes with an optimistic message: emissions remain stubbornly high, but the institutional infrastructure built over the past five years now provides the foundation for action. The goal remains a 75% reduction, and the tools exist to get there. Rocky Mountain Institute was founded during the energy crises of the 1970s, with a simple idea: better energy systems can deliver both economic and environmental benefits.Nearly 50 years later, that mission has never been more relevant. As businesses and governments navigate rising electricity demand, supply-chain uncertainty, and the push to decarbonize, RMI helps turn complex energy challenges into practical solutions.From grid modernization and industrial decarbonization to clean transportation and building efficiency, RMI works across sectors to accelerate the energy transition in ways that improve resilience, affordability, and energy security.Learn more at rmi.org.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The Government is pushing ahead with plans to build a liquefied natural gas terminal in New Zealand as a security buffer for when locally-made, renewable energy sources dry up. Reporter Whena Owen travels to Taranaki, the proposed site of the facility, to ask residents how they feel about having LNG in their backyard. Join Jack Tame and the Q+A team and find the answers to the questions that matter. Made with the support of NZ on Air.
Does Labour's public transport fare cap policy add up? The Labour Party - the biggest party in Opposition, maintaining a tight lead in this year's polls - has decided to open its election year campaign with a public transport fare cap policy: $20 a week in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, and $10 everywhere else. Labour's transport spokesperson, MP for Palmerston North Tangi Utikere, says the policy delivers cost-of-living relief at a net cost of $65 million a year. He joins Jack Tame for the first time. Locals fear "low-probability catastrophic event" if LNG terminal built near city The Government is pushing ahead with plans to build a liquefied natural gas terminal in New Zealand as a security buffer for when locally-made, renewable energy sources dry up. Reporter Whena Owen travels to Taranaki, the proposed site of the facility, to ask residents how they feel about having LNG in their backyard. "Between one week and five years" to repair Strait of Hormuz The United States appears poised to sign a deal to end the war in Iran following three and a half months of global disruption from the closed Strait of Hormuz. Energy analyst David Keat joins Q+A to discuss how the conflict has permanently changed energy markets. Why prison numbers will surge: Writer Asher Emanuel New Ministry of Justice projections forecast a 35 percent growth in New Zealand's prison population over the next ten years, with those kept in remand - people who have been charged but not convicted, or convicted but not sentenced - set to swell by nearly fifty percent. Asher Emanuel, a public lawyer and author of bestselling book The Valley: Crime and Punishment in a New Zealand City, says the trend doesn't necessarily reflect more crime, but a deliberate policy decision to put more people in prison. Join Jack Tame and the Q+A team and find the answers to the questions that matter. Made with the support of NZ on Air.
There are two great forces reshaping the world of energy today. The AI boom and the wave of investment in new data centres have sent power producers scrambling for generation capacity to meet soaring electricity demand. At the same time, the severe disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has put security of supply at the top of every importer's agenda. In this special episode, recorded at Wood Mackenzie's Gas, LNG and the Future of Energy Conference in London, host Ed Crooks speaks with three guests about what these twin pressures mean for gas. They discuss demand for gas for power, the sources of supply that could provide energy security in volatile times, and plans for tackling the increased greenhouse gas emissions that could result from increased consumption.First, Ed sits down with Neal Kalita, senior director of global energy management at NTT Global Data Centers, one of the world's largest data center developers. Neal explains why "speed to power" is a priority, and why gas plays such a key role in providing the reliable 24/7 firm capacity hyperscaler clients require.Relying on gas as a key component of the power generation mix means managing a complex set of issues around supply security, demand management and long-term investment. Neal explains how NTT thinks about commodity risk, the trade-offs involved in power supply agreements, and why on-site gas generation may be not just a bridge solution but long-term infrastructure for the electricity system. He highlights the key drivers that are changing the data centre industry, including rising GPU power density, AI-driven volatility in load, and climate-related grid reliability concerns. He also discusses NTT's participation in a demand response programme run by Voltus, which helped stabilise the grid when Winter Storm Fern hit Virginia in January.Next, Ed hears from Keith Shoemaker, Chief Commercial Officer at Coastal Bend, which is developing a new LNG liquefaction project at Corpus Christi, Texas. Coastal Bend is aiming to have the first project in the US to integrate carbon capture and sequestration into its design. Combined with the procurement of upstream gas with low methane leakage and flaring, that should make for the lowest carbon-intensity LNG in the world, Keith says. Crucially, the project can match competitor prices without charging a green premium. The US 45Q tax credit will cover the operational spending (Opex) for the transport and sequestration of the carbon, and costs will be kept down by using brownfield maritime infrastructure that is already in place. Regulation will still be essential in creating a market for lower-emissions LNG. Keith sets out an idea for making that work in the EU: linking the new Methane Emissions Regulation with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to create an "avoided carbon" currency that LNG importers could use to offset CBAM fees on other products such as cement, steel and fertiliser. That way, the methane regulation would change from a stick to a carrot for the LNG industry.Kristy Kramer, Head of LNG at Wood Mackenzie, closes the episode by assessing how the three trends of AI demand, energy security and decarbonisation fit together. She discusses the big question: has the conflict on the Middle East changed the world completely, forever. It may play out like the Covid pandemic. Huge changes were predicted, and although there were some permanent impacts, in other areas the world has gone back to the way it was before. Politics will change from week to week, or even from hour to hour, but geology and economics don't, and over time the fundamentals will reassert themselves. Kristy and Ed reflect on what that means for the future of energy. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Welcome back to a Friday edition of What The Truck?!Malcolm Harris and Michael Vincent kick off the show with their signature banter before diving into some of the biggest stories shaping freight, transportation, and supply chain today.In this episode:* Amazon's latest move into the LTL market and what it could mean for established carriers* Craig Fuller's analysis of Amazon's freight strategy and whether acquisitions like Forward Air make sense* The Transportation Intermediaries Association's (TIA) push for FMCSA guidance following the Montgomery case* How rising liability concerns and insurance costs could impact brokers, carriers, and the future of the industry* The growing role of technology, compliance, and risk management in modern truckingPlus, Chief Business Development Officer Adam Kahn of Netradyne joins the show to discuss:* How safety technology is transforming fleet operations* Netradyne's partnership with one of the nation's largest Domino's franchise operators* The impressive 66% reduction in at-fault crashes following implementation* Driver coaching, AI-powered safety insights, and building a stronger safety cultureThe crew also talks freight fraud, cargo theft, supply chain AI, LNG export developments, entrepreneurship, and plenty of Friday fun along the way. Watch on YouTube Visit our sponsor - KOONER FLEET MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS Subscribe to the WTT newsletter Apple Podcasts Spotify More FreightWaves Podcasts #WHATTHETRUCK #FreightNews #supplychain Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Energy Vista: A Podcast on Energy Issues, Professional and Personal Trajectories
Welcome back to a Friday edition of What The Truck?!Malcolm Harris and Michael Vincent kick off the show with their signature banter before diving into some of the biggest stories shaping freight, transportation, and supply chain today.In this episode:* Amazon's latest move into the LTL market and what it could mean for established carriers* Craig Fuller's analysis of Amazon's freight strategy and whether acquisitions like Forward Air make sense* The Transportation Intermediaries Association's (TIA) push for FMCSA guidance following the Montgomery case* How rising liability concerns and insurance costs could impact brokers, carriers, and the future of the industry* The growing role of technology, compliance, and risk management in modern truckingPlus, Chief Business Development Officer Adam Kahn of Netradyne joins the show to discuss:* How safety technology is transforming fleet operations* Netradyne's partnership with one of the nation's largest Domino's franchise operators* The impressive 66% reduction in at-fault crashes following implementation* Driver coaching, AI-powered safety insights, and building a stronger safety cultureThe crew also talks freight fraud, cargo theft, supply chain AI, LNG export developments, entrepreneurship, and plenty of Friday fun along the way. Watch on YouTube Visit our sponsor - KOONER FLEET MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS Subscribe to the WTT newsletter Apple Podcasts Spotify More FreightWaves Podcasts #WHATTHETRUCK #FreightNews #supplychain Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On one hand, we see increased oil tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. On the other hand, gas markets have had less luck getting LNG through the crucial chokepoint, setting the scene for a perfect storm of low storage injection rates, potentially higher El Niño cooling demand and slowing LNG supply growth. In this episode, we update you on the situation in the Strait and explain our view on gas. Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas This podcast was recorded on June 12, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5334101-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5331232-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
Canada's energy future is one of the most consequential—and contentious—questions facing the country. Is global demand for oil and gas set to remain strong for decades, or are economic and technological shifts already weakening the business case for major fossil fuel projects? Max Fawcett and Heather Exner-Pirot square off in a spirited debate (4:00) on LNG, energy transition, climate policy, and what comes next for Canada's economy. This Real Talk Debate is presented by our friends at Mercedes-Benz Edmonton West. THIS EPISODE IS PRESENTED BY HANSEN DISTILLERY. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NORTHERN EYES SEVEN-YEAR SHERRY CASK, AVAILABLE JUST IN TIME FOR FATHERS' DAY! HANSEN IS PROUDLY LOCAL, ALWAYS ORIGINAL. https://hansendistillery.com/ MBEW: https://www.mercedes-benz-edmontonwest.ca/ MAX'S LATEST COLUMN: https://www.nationalobserver.com/2026/06/11/opinion/carney-carbon-capture-and-storage-oil-industry FOLLOW HEATHER on X: https://x.com/ExnerPirot 58:30 | Real Talkers have their say on solar power, EVs, diesel rigs, and more in our Live Chat powered by Park Power. SAVE on INTERNET, ELECTRICITY, and NATURAL GAS: https://parkpower.ca/realtalk/ 1:25:30 | Are you buying SpaceX stock today? We revisit our June 11 interview with Cary Williams about the biggest IPO in history. WATCH THAT FULL INTERVIEW: https://rtrj.info/061126NRIC CONNECT WITH NORTH ROAD INVESTMENT COUNSEL: https://www.northroadic.com/ 1:37:45 | Pat in Airdrie is fuming over changes to Alberta's electoral boundaries, Jan lacks faith ahead of the fall referendum, Gillian says it's worth fighting for French in schools, Janelle's demanding more for primary care nurses, and Ryan from the band F&M wants Jespo and Johnny to be better Canadians. It's The Flamethrower presented by the DQs of Northwest Edmonton and Sherwood Park! FIRE UP YOUR FLAMETHROWER: talk@ryanjespersen.com CHECK OUT F&M's VERSION of "MAYBE TOMORROW": youtube.com/watch?si=iTyE9b9pPjSCdmsN&v=P87vdHcHoc8&feature=youtu.be WHEN YOU VISIT THE DQs IN PALISADES, NAMAO, NEWCASTLE, WESTMOUNT, or BASELINE ROAD, BE SURE TO TELL 'EM REAL TALK SENT YOU! REGISTRATION IS OPEN FOR THE REAL TALK GOLF CLASSIC on JUNE 18 at THE RANCH: https://www.ryanjespersen.com/real-ta... REAL TALK'S LIVE STREAM IS PRESENTED BY CALIFORNIA CLOSETS. BOOK YOUR FREE CONSULTATION: https://californiaclosets.ca/ SIGN UP for YEGplus, CANADA'S FIRST AIRPORT REWARDS PROGRAM: https://yegplus.com/realtalk SHOPPING FOR LUXURY CASUAL WEAR OR A CUSTOM SUIT? SAVE 10% ONLINE WITH PROMO CODE REALTALK: https://thehelmclothing.com/ JOIN JESPO JUNE 13 AT CARROT BY MOONLIGHT IN SUPPORT OF ARTS ON THE AVE EDMONTON SOCIETY: https://www.thecarrot.ca/events-at-the-carrot/2026/6/13carrotbymoonlight FOLLOW US ON TIKTOK, X, INSTAGRAM, and LINKEDIN: @realtalkrj & @ryanjespersen JOIN US ON FACEBOOK: @ryanjespersen REAL TALK MERCH: https://ryanjespersen.com/merch RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE PERKS - BECOME A REAL TALK PATRON: patreon.com/ryanjespersen THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING OUR SPONSORS! https://ryanjespersen.com/sponsors The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Relay Communications Group Inc. or any affiliates.
Deirdra Garyk, longtime energy policy analyst and advocate, says this year's Global Energy Show was defined by a renewed sense of optimism, driven by greater policy certainty and a shift toward building major projects. She highlighted a new labour market outlook projecting roughly 72,000 energy-sector job openings by 2035, while warning that the industry's biggest challenge is not a shortage of workers, but a shortage of skills. Garyk also argued that growing demand from AI, LNG exports, and global energy security concerns is pushing the conversation away from an "energy transition" and toward a more pragmatic approach to “energy realism.”The Hub is Canada's fastest-growing independent digital news outlet.Subscribe to our YouTube channel to get our latest videos: https://www.youtube.com/@TheHubCanadaSubscribe to The Hub's podcast feed to get our best content when you are on the go:https://tinyurl.com/3a7zpd7e (Apple) https://tinyurl.com/y8akmfn7 (Spotify) Want more Hub? Get a FREE 3-month trial membership on us: https://thehub.ca/free-trial/Follow The Hub on X: https://x.com/thehubcanada?lang=en CREDITS:Falice Chin - Host, Producer, and Editor Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Three new U.S. LNG projects have reached a positive final investment decision this year: Venture Global's CP2 Phase 2, Caturus's Commonwealth LNG, and now, most recently, Delfin Midstream's Delfin LNG, which will be the U.S.'s first floating LNG project.
The California energy market has historically been defined by extreme contradictions: a regulatory push toward a renewable energy stack on one side, and total dependence on neighboring regions for physical natural gas molecules on the other. While a “perfect storm” early this spring pushed spot prices to historic lows across the state, a looming wall of structural shifts — from cross-border LNG exports to massive data center buildouts — is forcing traders to prepare for a future of unprecedented upside volatility. In this episode of Hub & Flow, NGI's Christopher Lenton sits down with veteran energy trader and NGI's Senior Vice President of Business Development & Client Support David Dutch to break down the complex web of infrastructure keeping California powered. The conversation untangles how three distinct supply basins — West Texas, the Rockies and Western Canada — simultaneously flushed the West with cheap natural gas, and why a hyper-reliance on regional hydro and renewables leaves the state acutely vulnerable to massive basis spikes. Dutch also pulls back the curtain on Mexico's Energía Costa Azul LNG export plant, explaining why a reversed pipeline flow below San Diego could soon send Southern California prices to the moon on peak demand days.
What a day on the EnergyNews Beat News Desk, we have 10 big stories for you, and as we were filming this, President Trump calls off the plans - wow, changed everything. David Blackmon's Energy Additions Stops by the Energy News Beat Stand Up as we used one of his stories on blackmon.substack.com.Make no mistakes, this war will end in one of two ways. World War III, or the Venezuelan-style controls on Iran, as they have shown themselves to be an untrustworthy neighbor and have murdered tens of thousands of their own citizens.As David and I were signing on to film the podcast, President Trump called off the strikes to take Kharg Island, and I am hoping this is to reposition assets and give some surprise to their capture. The oil markets dropped to $87. 94 for WTI, and this brings up the Paper trading versus the Physical delivery price of $140.1. Iran Geopolitical Crisis & Military StrategyThe hosts extensively discuss U.S.-Iran tensions, focusing on President Trump's shifting positions on military strikes and seizing Cargo Island. They analyze three phases of military action: (1) stabilizing oil prices by moving ships through the Strait of Hormuz, (2) degrading Iran's military capabilities, and (3) direct action inside Iran. A key point is that without “Venezuelan-style controls” on Iran's oil exports, hostile actors could profit significantly.2. Oil Markets & Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)The podcast explores why physical oil prices exceed $140 while futures trade below $100. Key factors include China's reduced crude imports (4 million barrels/day reduction), alternative export routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz (7-10 million barrels/day), and tanker truck alternatives. Critically, they warn that the U.S. SPR is dangerously low—only 6.1 weeks away from the safe operational level of 300 million barrels.3. Global Energy Infrastructure & Pipeline DevelopmentMultiple countries are building alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz to reduce Iran's leverage. Kuwait is negotiating pipelines with Saudi Arabia and UAE. Japan signed a major LNG deal. This reflects a broader theme: the world is reducing dependence on chokepoints Iran controls.4. U.S. Energy Policy & Data CentersGovernor Abbott's directive requires data centers in Texas to fund their own electrical infrastructure, protecting the grid. Texas is becoming the data center capital (second only to Virginia), with massive natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin to support expansion.5. Natural Gas Pipeline ExpansionKendra Morgan's Gulf Express pipeline expansion will come online soon, preventing flaring and enabling 4.5 BCF of new Permian outbound capacity by 2026—a significant development for energy markets.6. Banking & Investment in Fossil FuelsThe world's 65 largest banks invested $906 billion in fossil fuels in 2025, with the Iran conflict expected to escalate exploration, production, and energy security spending. The ordering of 250 supertankers signals long-term confidence in oil demand.7. Political Concerns & Congressional DysfunctionWe express frustration with President Trump's inconsistent messaging on Iran policy and criticize Congress for its lack of support, calling for primary challenges against most incumbents.All of these stories are on the Energy News Beat website - the World's Best Podcast Show Notes. 1.Trump: US Will 'Assume Total Control' Of Iran's Oil Infrastructure2.President Trump Announces Plans to Strike Iran Again and Take Control of Kharg Island, Echoing Venezuelan-Style Oil Controls3.Why Oil Is Still Below $100 a Barrel When Physical Oil Is Over $1404.The Tale of Two SPRs and Different Uses: US and China Navigate the Iran War Supply Shock5.Full Story on the Downed Apache – Part of Getting 22 Tankers through the Gulf6.Kuwait Oil Chief Seeks Pipeline Alternatives to Skirt Hormuz7.Japan Inks Major LNG Deal as Energy Markets Focus Away from Hormuz8.Texas Gov. Abbott Directs PUC and ERCOT to Shield Texans from Data Center and Infrastructure Costs9.Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast Express Expansion About to Come On Line – And It Will Impact More Than Natural Gas Prices10.World's 65 Biggest Banks Pumped $906 Billion Into Fossil Fuels in 2025. The Iran War will escalate exploration and production, pipelines, and energy security spending and financing.Check out the Energy News Beat SubStack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energyAnd we have WellDatabase rolling in as a new sponsor. https://welldatabase.com/
2026年 6月11日（木）ニュース ▼河野洋平・元衆議院議長が今月8日に死去 ▼あす開催、サッカーの第２３回Ｗ杯北中米３カ国大会について 現地メキシコシティからレポート ⇒産経新聞編集局運動部 大石豊佳記者 ▼高市総理がマレーシア首相と会談 LNGや重要物資供給の連携強化で一致 ▼政府、皇族数確保に「立法府の創意」決定 皇室典範改正案提出へ ▼社会保障国民会議、将来の税額控除導入について「検討を継続」 ▼海外事業支援制度を創設する改正経済安全保障推進法などが成立 ▼飯田泰之さんに聞く、日銀の利上げによる生活への影響 きょうコメンテーター飯田泰之（明治大学教授、経済学者)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This week, our guest is the Honourable Brian Jean, Alberta's Minister of Energy and Minerals. The conversation was recorded at an ARC Financial event in Calgary on June 9. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has underscored the importance of energy security and supply diversity. This, along with more supportive federal policies, is raising expectations for growth in Alberta's oil and gas sector. On the podcast this week, Jackie asks Minister Jean about Alberta's opportunity to expand oil and gas production, including: Is the Strait of Hormuz closure and the Iran war reshaping how people view Canadian energy? What is Alberta's goal for oil production growth, and what changes, regulatory and otherwise, are supporting that goal? How does Alberta benefit from the build-out of LNG export capacity on the West Coast? The Canada–Alberta MOU outlines a plan to submit a 1 MMB/d oil pipeline to reach Asian markets to the Major Projects Office, with the aim of starting the regulatory review by early July. What is its status, and does the decision on the large oil sands CCS project affect the path forward? Are discussions underway with BC on the pipeline and with local communities, including Indigenous groups? And what are Alberta's opportunities in mineral production and, potentially, processing? Content referenced in this podcast: Canada Government, Overview of Canada's National Artificial Intelligence Strategy: AI for All (June 4, 2026) Global Energy Show (June 9 to 11, 2026) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/Check us out on social media:X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify
Chris Hipkins discusses Labour's new transport policy; Officials told govt there was a low need for LNG facility; Wellington mayor stands by evacuation orders; ProCare boss discusses use of AI in health sector; Penguin gets stuck in soccer net in New Plymouth garden
India just found natural gas off the Andaman coast. The energy minister called it "an ocean of energy opportunities." Considering India's energy vulnerabilities, this is a significant find, even if commercial production is a decade away.Because in the meantime, the war on Iran has doubled LNG prices, cut off Qatar (which supplied nearly half of India's imports) and pushed India into buying six times more American gas than it was before the conflict began. The US has already used energy as a bargaining chip in the tariff standoff last year, putting India again in a tough spot.But now analysts are predicting a global LNG glut. And while cheaper imports do sound like relief, they might just be another trap.Read Blas's piece here.Read Anand's piece for The Ken here.Daybreak is produced from the newsroom of The Ken, India's first subscriber-only business news platform. Subscribe for more exclusive, deeply-reported, and analytical business stories.
This week on Inside the Economy, we examine jobs and spending, inflation, and economies outside the United States. Since 2020, hiring demand has increased across the South and in parts of the country such as Idaho, while many Western states have experienced a decline. At the same time, new job creation remains strong. Are there any potential warning signs or anomalies behind the recent uptick in new jobs, or does the data point to continued strength? Inflation has also ticked higher in recent months, driven in part by conflict in the Middle East. Additional pressure has come from rising U.S. beef prices, as drought conditions and shrinking cattle herds continue to constrain supply. What other areas of inflation are being affected by drought conditions? Finally, the world's three largest LNG exporters, the United States, Australia, and Qatar, account for a combined 252 million tons of exports. How could the global LNG landscape change as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, and which countries may emerge as future players? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: • Unemployment at 4.3% • Money-Market Fund Assets reach $8.8 Trillion as of May 28th • PCE Core CPI at 3.3% (YoY)
The conflict in the Middle East has created severe disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, taking roughly 20% of global supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) off the market. It has been a reminder that hundreds of millions of people rely on the international gas trade to heat our homes, fuel our industries and keep our lights on. And that trade is highly vulnerable to sudden shocks. In this special episode, recorded at Wood Mackenzie's Gas, LNG and the Future of Energy Conference in London, host Ed Crooks speaks with industry leaders and experts about the forces that are changing the gas business. Security of supply and affordability are now the top priorities for policymakers and business leaders around the world. But climate change has not gone away, and greenhouse gas emissions are going to be an increasingly significant issue in the future. Balancing those three imperatives is the trilemma that the energy industry has to solve.First, Ed talks to Anita Odedra, of the LNG platform MidOcean Energy, to discuss the critical role of geography. When energy supplies from the Middle East are disrupted, assets elsewhere in the world take on a greater importance. Joining Anita is Dr Valentina Kretzschmar, of Wood Mackenzie, who puts the shock from the Iran war into the context of a decelerating energy transition in the West. She walks through the EU Methane Emissions Regulation and why it is so hard to work out exactly how much escaped methane is associated with a cargo of imported LNG. And she talks about how the real threat to fossil fuels is cheap Chinese clean energy technology. Arturo Gallego, of Centrica Energy, is another industry leader who is attempting to balance consumers' immediate demands for reliable, affordable energy with long-term climate goals. He warns that if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, Europe will struggle to find the gas it needs next winter, and high prices may be necessary to destroy demand. He makes the case for LNG as a transition fuel and for tackling greenhouse gas emissions step by step.TJ Conway, of the think-tank RMI, closes on a practical note. His work has focused on the technical solutions that make the EU methane regulation workable. He argues that his proposed framework could allow the EU to continue importing US gas, while still sending a signal that methane performance matters.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Dr. Beatriz Canamary stopped by the Energy News Beat podcast, and we had a great discussion about energy, exports, and our maritime industry, including shipbuilding and the Jones Act. I am going to just be brutally honest for a moment, and say that I have been for totally repealing the Jones Act for years. After my discussion with Dr. Canamery, my opinion has shifted toward more of a "let's get the problem solved and leave the Jones Act in place long-term" stance. But we need a plan to get to a balance. Dr. Canamary has a new book coming out, and we will be getting an interview lined up. Connect with Beatriz on her LinkedIn here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/beatrizcanamary/1. U.S. Maritime Industry RevitalizationThe core focus is rebuilding America's shipbuilding capacity. The U.S. currently represents only 0.4% of global ship production (down from over 50% post-WWII), while China dominates with 60% and South Korea adds another 20%. The discussion emphasizes the need for strategic investment in shipyards, workforce development, and creating predictable cargo demand to justify shipbuilding expansion.2. Energy Security & Dominance Through MaritimeEnergy exports (oil and LNG) are central to U.S. dominance, but they're currently transported on international vessels rather than U.S.-flagged ships. The podcast explores how securing cargo on American vessels strengthens both energy security and the maritime industry. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is cited as a wake-up call about supply chain vulnerabilities.3. Global Choke Points & Geopolitical RisksEight major maritime choke points (Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea/Houthis, Strait of Malacca, etc.) are contested and sometimes weaponized. Insurance companies can effectively shut down shipping by canceling coverage, as Lloyd's of London did during the Iran strike. The discussion highlights the need for U.S. insurance alternatives and control over critical passages.4. Nuclear Technology in MaritimeNuclear propulsion for ships and floating nuclear power plants are presented as innovation differentiators for the U.S. The ABS (American Bureau of Shipping) has frameworks for approving nuclear projects, and companies like Nano Nuclear are developing micro-reactors designed for maritime use. Nuclear is positioned as cleaner than traditional fuel oil and a competitive advantage.5. Autonomous & Advanced Maritime TechnologyA new IMO (International Maritime Organization) framework for autonomous commercial ships was recently approved, with a mandatory code coming in 2032. The U.S. is positioned to compete through innovation in automation, AI, and autonomous vessels rather than on cost—since labor-intensive competition with China/Korea is unwinnable.6. Maritime Prosperity ZonesThe U.S. should develop regional maritime clusters (similar to Europe's model) with specialized capabilities—some regions for tankers, others for icebreakers, etc. The American Maritime Industrial Coalition is mapping supply chains and regional expertise to accelerate production.7. Trade Agreements & Bilateral PartnershipsStrategic trade agreements with U.S. allies can secure cargo flows through American ports on U.S.-flagged vessels, creating demand signals for shipbuilding without direct government subsidies. This creates a win-win for allies seeking energy independence.8. The Ships for America ActA bipartisan bill with 126+ seats of support, expected to pass by year-end. It includes tax incentives and supports the broader maritime revitalization strategy outlined in the National Security Strategy and Maritime Action Plan.9. Geopolitical Shifts & New Trading BlocsThe podcast discusses emerging energy-based trading blocs, China's port dominance (129 ports globally), and concerns about China's influence in South America (Peru, Brazil). It also touches on the Monroe Doctrine and regional security in the Western Hemisphere.10. Ports as Strategic InfrastructureDr. Canamari's forthcoming book explores ports as intelligence hubs, infrastructure assets, and strategic military/trade assets. The discussion covers climate resilience, digital twins, automation, and how ports are increasingly weaponized in global trade wars.This is a comprehensive discussion of how maritime infrastructure, energy, innovation, and geopolitics intersect to shape U.S. competitiveness and national security.Check out the Energy News Beat SubStack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energyAnd we have WellDatabase rolling in as a new sponsor. https://welldatabase.com/
The Marcellus/Utica still has vast amounts of natural gas to supply the ongoing surge in demand from power generators and LNG exporters. But there's a catch: A significant step-up in Appalachian production can only occur if new pipeline infrastructure is built to transport that gas to where it's needed.
https://youtu.be/BV-3gt0wfsk Recorded: Tuesday, May 12, 2026 In Episode 158 of the PetroNerds Podcast, Trisha Curtis, host of the PetroNerds Podcast and CEO of PetroNerdstakes, was on stage at the Society of Petroleum Engineers meeting at the Petroleum Club of Midland, Texas, for a wide-ranging discussion on oil markets, geopolitics, energy security, and the future of U.S. shale. Recorded amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and renewed volatility in global energy markets, Trisha examines how rapidly evolving geopolitical events have exposed the gap between market sentiment and the realities of physical oil. Just months before oil prices surged back toward triple digits, many analysts and industry participants were focused on oversupply concerns, weak demand forecasts, and bearish outlooks for the energy sector. Drawing on decades of market analysis, Trisha explains why investors, policymakers, and energy executives must remain humble when forecasting commodity markets and why understanding physical energy infrastructure matters more than ever. Key Takeaways Oil markets entered 2026 with geopolitical risk significantly underpriced. Iran's production and exports remain more important to global supply balances than many analysts recognized. China's stockpiling strategy and refining capacity are critical variables in understanding global oil demand. The Strait of Hormuz remains vital, but alternative export infrastructure is reducing some chokepoint risk. Russia's energy sector has demonstrated greater resilience than many forecasts anticipated. Coal continues to play a foundational role in global energy security. Reliable power generation and grid infrastructure will become increasingly important as electricity demand rises. U.S. energy dominance remains a major competitive advantage for the American economy. The Permian Basin continues to outperform expectations through innovation and productivity gains. LNG exports and natural gas infrastructure are becoming increasingly important to global energy security. Iran, China, and the Geopolitics of Oil A major focus of the discussion centers on Iran's role in global oil markets and the strategic relationship between Iranian crude exports and Chinese demand. Trisha explores how sanctioned barrels from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela contributed to perceptions of oversupply in global markets while simultaneously masking growing geopolitical risk. She argues that many market participants underestimated both the scale of Iranian production and China's willingness to continue purchasing discounted crude. The conversation also examines the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. While the strait remains essential to global oil flows, Trisha highlights how Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have invested heavily in alternative export infrastructure, including pipelines to Yanbu and Fujairah, reducing some of the region's vulnerability during times of conflict. Why China Is the Most Important Energy Story in the World One of the central themes of the presentation is China's long-term energy security strategy. Trisha argues that understanding China is essential to understanding today's oil market. Beyond demand growth, China has spent years building strategic crude inventories, expanding refining capacity, increasing domestic production, and investing in power generation infrastructure designed to strengthen national resilience. She suggests that much of China's apparent oil demand growth may actually reflect large-scale stockpiling efforts, creating significant uncertainty around traditional demand estimates. Combined with China's continued reliance on coal, expanding electricity generation, and focus on industrial competitiveness, these policies reveal a country preparing for long-term strategic challenges rather than short-term market fluctuations. Energy Transition Narratives Meet Reality The discussion also tackles broader energy policy debates, including the role of coal, natural gas, renewables, and electricity markets. Trisha challenges many prevailing energy-transition assumptions, arguing that energy security and reliability remain the foundation of economic growth and national security. She points to China's continued expansion of coal-fired generation alongside renewable development as evidence that reliable baseload power remains indispensable. The conversation explores how rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence, data centers, manufacturing, and electrification is creating new pressures on power grids throughout the United States and Europe. According to Trisha, years of underinvestment in dispatchable generation, transmission infrastructure, and permitting reform have created vulnerabilities that policymakers can no longer ignore. The Resilience of U.S. Shale The episode concludes with an in-depth assessment of the U.S. shale industry and the future of American energy production. Despite recurring claims that U.S. shale growth has peaked, Trisha highlights continued productivity improvements across the Permian Basin, including longer laterals, stronger completion techniques, and operational efficiencies that continue to surprise forecasters. She also discusses the growing importance of natural gas infrastructure, LNG exports, and pipeline takeaway capacity as critical components of America's energy future. While constraints remain, particularly in natural gas transportation, Trisha argues that the U.S. oil and gas sector remains one of the country's greatest strategic advantages. Whether you're an energy executive, investor, policymaker, or industry professional, this episode offers a timely and data-driven examination of the forces shaping oil markets, power systems, and global energy security in an increasingly uncertain world.
If you are worried about China taking over due to having better robots than the yanks, I got mixed messages for ya here. This was created using DeepSeek v4 Pro. Remember when DeepSeek could do the same thing as chatGPT but on shitty processors and not much RAM? All those stocks shit themselves? Oh what memories. Would have been a great time to buy NVIDIA stocks. I didn't, if you're asking....It's pretty good but it really didn't follow the instruction in the prompt that Joel Hill is Jack the Insider on the transcript. So that's a minus point. But also, this took fucking ages to generate. It's better than lots of the yankee slop but damn son this took MINUTES. So they might take over if we are patient or whatever. Enjoy the episode. ----------------------------------------------Joel Hill (Jack the Insider) and Hong Kong Jack return for a sprawling episode that tackles two of the biggest stories shaping politics in 2026. The pair open with the jaw-dropping Redbridge poll putting One Nation at 31% of the primary vote — a number that would all but wipe the National Party off the federal map and potentially deliver Anthony Albanese a strengthened majority government by splintering the right. Joel and Jack clash over whether culture-war grievances or material concerns are driving the surge, while drawing historical parallels to Joh for Canberra and the DLP split of the 1950s.The conversation then crosses hemispheres for a tour through UK chaos: Peter Mandelson's leaked dossier exposing a rudderless No. 10 under Keir Starmer, Nicola Sturgeon's estranged husband pleading guilty to embezzling SNP donations on a surreal shopping spree of Lalique salt shakers, seven Dysons, and a motorhome with four miles on the clock, and a deeply troubling police body-cam incident that has reignited the two-tier policing debate ahead of three critical by-elections.The centrepiece of the episode is a sober, hour-long deep dive into the COVID-19 pandemic and what Australia has refused to learn. The Two Jacks lay out the true death toll (perhaps 22 to 69 million globally), the devastating scale of long COVID, the vaccine rollout failures, the absurdities of hotel quarantine with rubbish bags over heads, and why governments and public health officials are desperate to avoid a Royal Commission. They close by asking whether the next pandemic will meet a population that has permanently lost trust in its leaders — and whether we'll simply repeat the mistakes of both COVID and the Spanish flu.Sport provides a lighter coda: the Carlton revival under an interim coach, James Hird's awkward candidacy at Essendon, the expanded 48-team World Cup that nobody seems excited about, and a formidable New Zealand Test side taking on England at Lord's.00:00:25 — Introduction Joel welcomes listeners to Episode 159, recorded 4 June. Today: Australian political news, a check-in on the UK, and a deep dive into the COVID-19 pandemic.00:01:21 — The Redbridge Poll: One Nation at 31% The AFR's Redbridge poll: One Nation 31%, Labor 28%, LNP 20%, Greens 12%. The two-party preferred is now being calculated as One Nation versus Labor — a seismic shift in how Australian politics is measured.00:03:12 — Not Just a Protest Vote Jack argues this is real, not a re-run of Hanson's 1990s flash-in-the-pan. The South Australian state election and the Farrah by-election suggest One Nation support is durable. Joel counters that protest votes can be expressed at the ballot box and that Australians are tiring of pluralism.00:04:09 — If One Nation Succeeds, Labor Wins The cruel irony: One Nation's rise probably delivers Labor government. The National Party could simply disappear. The DLP kept the Coalition in power for decades as an anti-Labor party; One Nation may do the reverse.00:05:46 — Scrutiny and Splintering Joel notes One Nation's policies are "two-sentence fragments" and motherhood statements. When proper scrutiny arrives, the contradictions will surface. Hanson's parliamentary attendance is as poor as imaginable.00:08:22 — The Third Rail Jack argues populists succeed because they discuss what polite society won't: immigration, culture wars, welcome to country rituals. The major parties must engage these topics or cede the ground entirely.00:11:34 — Feeling Unheard The core driver, Jack contends: voters feel sneered at and silenced by mainstream politics. It's not about flag counts, it's about being listened to.00:13:50 — What Actually Drives Votes Joel pushes back: voting determinants are the household economy, migration, climate change — not culture war trivia. Culture wars "don't amount to a hill of beans" at the ballot box.00:14:51 — The DLP Parallel Both agree the One Nation phenomenon most closely resembles the DLP split of the 1950s and 60s — a right-wing fracture that delivered Labor government after Labor government.00:17:18 — The Republic Referendum Lesson Jack recalls the 1999 republic referendum: pro-republicans split between models rather than uniting, scuppering the whole project. Voters will vote their preference even knowing it helps their enemy.00:19:32 — UK Parallels: Accommodate or Fight? Significant figures in the UK Tory party are debating whether to fight Reform or reach an accommodation. Tony Abbott recently said the Liberal Party won't criticise Pauline Hanson.00:21:48 — Joh for Canberra Redux Imre Salusinszky's comparison: this is "Joh for Canberra" all over again. But Joel notes Joh's moment lasted months; One Nation's has already lasted years.00:24:08 — State Election Previews Joel predicts the Victorian state election will be chaotic and peculiar — a government that's been in power too long, an opposition that may not be up to the task, and One Nation peeling votes from safe Labor seats. NSW will give a clearer reading.00:25:44 — Hanson "Ready to Govern" — from the Senate? Pauline Hanson announced she's ready to govern. Joel asks: shouldn't she contest a lower-house seat first? Jack recalls the only precedent: John Gorton became PM while still a senator, but had to be eased into Kooyong.00:28:20 — The Mandelson Dossier: Starmer's Empty Suit Jack's read of the leaked Mandelson documents: ministers don't know what the PM wants, there's zero respect or fear of his authority. Starmer comes across as an empty chair. One minister's text: "Every meeting with Labour MPs — it's all about who can we tax to pay benefits to other people."00:30:50 — Mandelson's Legal Peril Mandelson is under police investigation for misconduct in public office. Could face charges — the seriousness depends on whether it's mere misconduct or genuine bribery for foreign interests.00:31:49 — The Nicola Sturgeon Saga Her estranged husband has pleaded guilty to embezzling roughly £400,000 in SNP donations. The shopping list: six high-end coffee machines, seven Dyson vacuums, Lalique salt and pepper shakers, Montblanc pens, Swiss watches, an iJag, part of a Volkswagen, and a motorhome with four miles on the clock parked at his 92-year-old mother's house. Nicola claims she "didn't go in the kitchen much."00:34:20 — The BBC Interview Laura Kuenssberg's forensic interview with Sturgeon — "not quite Prince Andrew, but not much better." Sturgeon has been cleared by Police Scotland, but her reputation, already damaged by the Alex Salmond trial, is now in tatters.00:35:05 — Will He Go to Prison? £400,000 is a substantial sum. With another £600,000 unaccounted for, a custodial sentence seems likely. The money was ring-fenced for a second independence referendum push.00:36:50 — Money Laundering or Conspicuous Consumption? Joel wonders if the bizarre purchases — multiple watches on the same day — were an amateur money-laundering attempt: buy goods with SNP funds, sell them quietly for cash.00:38:23 — UK By-elections: Makerfield Looms Three by-elections on 18 June, including the critical Makerfield contest. Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester's high-profile mayor, is the tepid favourite. Low turnout could help him return to Westminster.00:39:30 — The Body-Cam Incident A white teenager accused of racially vilifying a Sikh man was stabbed — and police arrested the bleeding victim, not the attacker. Body-cam footage shows the victim saying "I can't breathe, I've been stabbed" while officers dismiss him. Joel calls the footage "just awful."00:41:22 — Two-Tier Policing Jack traces UK policing's overcorrection: after the Macpherson/Lawrence report, guidelines were rewritten so aggressively that they've produced a pattern of questionable enforcement that devastates community trust — and plays directly into Tommy Robinson's hands.00:42:08 — NSW Police on Four Corners Joel recommends the harrowing Four Corners investigation: bashings in custody, false arrests, an officer who threw body-cam footage into Sydney Harbour, and two undercover officers jailed for a savage assault. The problem today is general duties policing, not the specialist squads of the 1980s. Some command areas are far worse than others — a leadership failure.00:44:55 — Victoria Police: Under-Resourced, Not Corrupt Joel shares an anecdote: two divisional vans for 80,000 people in outer-east Melbourne. Tough work being a police officer; even tougher being a good one.The COVID-19 Reckoning00:45:09 — Why This Matters Joel sets the frame: we parked COVID in 2023 with a hangover but never understood what we'd been through. Today's episode aims to crack that problem.00:45:51 — The True Death Toll Officially: 7 million dead. But most countries stopped testing and stopped reporting cause-of-death data to the WHO. Using excess mortality, the real toll is between 22 and 69 million — at the high end, exceeding the Spanish flu.00:47:02 — Long COVID's Shadow Roughly 400 million people globally (6% of the population) have experienced long COVID. In Australia alone, between 200,000 and 500,000 people are living with or have lived with the condition. Second infections can be worse. Emerging links to cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and accelerated dementia.00:49:43 — The Collective Amnesia Governments worldwide have "a collective embarrassment" about how they handled the pandemic, Jack says. They want it in the history books and forgotten. Joel says this is a grave mistake for public trust — and for public health, given COVID is now a permanent fixture alongside flu season.00:50:50 — Why Excess Deaths Are the Only Honest Metric All other figures are "kind of made up" because attribution methods vary wildly between countries. Excess deaths remain elevated in Australia and most nations.00:51:25 — Children and COVID Bobby Kennedy Jr. removed under-18s from government-supported vaccines in the US. Joel argues this is a disastrous move given mounting evidence that childhood COVID infection leads to higher rates of long-term chronic illness.00:52:47 — Why No Royal Commission? Not just politicians protecting themselves — public health officials and much of the media wanted to avoid scrutiny of their judgments and actions during the pandemic.00:53:32 — The Media's Abdication Jack watched "a lot" of Daniel Andrews's daily press conferences. Only two journalists ever asked pertinent questions: Rachel Baxendale and Leigh Sales. Nobody asked why curfews, why beach arrests, why the disparate impact on tradies and cafe owners while the "laptop class" actually made money working from home.00:56:14 — Andrews's Immense Popularity Joel adds context: Andrews was wildly popular at the time, which partly explains the media's deference — though Jack insists that shouldn't have mattered.00:57:34 — The Curfew Nonsense Curfews were about giving law enforcement the easiest possible environment, Joel says — and should have been acknowledged as such and wound back sooner. Meanwhile, Bondi's wealthy swam en masse while Western Sydney's working-class communities were treated harshly.00:57:59 — The Vaccine Rollout Failure The Morrison government bet everything on AstraZeneca — the non-mRNA, first-available vaccine. Then rare blood-clotting issues emerged (seven deaths, mainly men aged 40–49). Meanwhile, Australia was left waiting for Pfizer and other mRNA vaccines because no other supply deals had been secured.00:59:37 — Omicron Breaks the Pandemic's Back The Omicron variant emerged from South Africa: more infectious but far less lethal. Combined with 95%+ vaccination rates among Australians over 18, it effectively ended the acute phase — though at the cost of entrenched mistrust.01:00:38 — Government Overreach and Broken Trust Jack's core criticism: governments outsourced decision-making to public health officials rather than making political judgments that balanced competing interests. Joel counters that it would have been a "bold move" for politicians with no scientific background to contradict public health advice.01:02:19 — "Just Let It Rip" Was Never an Option The three countries with the highest COVID mortality — Brazil (highest), United States (second), India (third) — were all led by populist governments that largely refused mandates. Letting it rip was devastating.01:03:27 — The ADF Quarantine Scandal Scott Morrison refused to allow ADF quarantine facilities to be used for returning travellers. Instead, people were crammed into hotels with gaps under the doors. Joel recalls the "rubbish bags over heads" episode in Victoria — dark green plastic bags as infection control.01:05:00 — The Inquiry's Recommendations Create a proper Australian CDC. Release expert advice publicly. Better national planning with clear political accountability. And critically: politicians must own the big decisions on freedoms and spending instead of hiding behind experts.01:06:01 — The Next Pandemic There will be another one. If it's a respiratory, airborne pathogen like COVID, similar circumstances will return. Are we ready? Probably not. Will we close the country again? The economic damage — unemployment hitting 7.5% in 2020 — was enormous, even if it recovered to 3.5% by pandemic's end.01:08:06 — Who Was Left Behind? The arts community was inexplicably excluded from JobSeeker and JobKeeper. Meanwhile, the "laptop class" working from home effectively got a 15% pay rise by eliminating commuting costs. Bunnings did very well; so did companies that kept JobKeeper without passing it to employees.01:11:14 — The Human Cost of Lockdowns Public housing towers in Flemington were locked down. Joel recalls one family: an African-Australian single mother with nine children in a two-bedroom commission flat, trapped. Jack calls what happened with schools "disgraceful." But Joel notes the evidence now shows childhood COVID infection has serious long-term health consequences, complicating the retrospective judgment.01:13:59 — Will We Learn Anything? Jack's bleak prediction: the next pandemic is probably far enough away that we'll take no notice of COVID's lessons and make the same mistakes. Joel agrees — we didn't learn from the Spanish flu a century ago either.01:15:51 — Malcolm Roberts and Vaccine Misinformation The One Nation senator claims 70,000 Australians died from COVID vaccines — a figure with no evidentiary support, built by misattributing excess deaths. In reality, mRNA technology is now being deployed as a cancer treatment, showing promise against bowel and pancreatic cancers.01:17:36 — Trust Destroyed If the next pandemic arrives within this generation, governments will face a population that has lost faith. If it takes 50 years, the damage may have faded. Western Australia, meanwhile, locked itself down with negligible deaths and actually loved the isolation — provided the iron ore and LNG ships kept moving.01:20:37 — The Spanish Flu Echo Joel's closing historical note: Australia's response to the Spanish flu in 1919–1921 was nearly identical to COVID — lockdown disputes, police arresting people for not wearing masks, states fighting the newly created federal Department of Health. The whole thing collapsed into acrimony the moment state rivalries flared. A century later, nothing had changed.01:21:48 — Federation as Fatal Flaw Jack adds: the three high-mortality COVID countries (US, Brazil, India) share a feature beyond populist leaders — they're all federations where central government power is limited. When "the emperor is far away and the mountains are high," coordinated pandemic response is nearly impossible.01:23:40 — No Appetite for Truth Jack's final word: nobody wants a proper inquiry. Not politicians, not public health officials, not much of the media. Joel disagrees on the importance — the pandemic's legacy still shapes how Australians think, vote, and trust.Sport01:27:40 — AFL Coaching Carousel Essendon and Carlton both need permanent coaches. Joel asks: is James Hird the right man for Essendon? Jack: 17 other clubs wouldn't give him an interview, but the Bombers may have backed themselves into a corner where appointing him is the only way out.01:28:53 — Merit vs Member Sentiment Rowan Connolly's question: would you take James Hird or John Longmire (five grand finals, one premiership, 60%+ win rate)? The answer is obvious on merit — but members and fans want the fairy tale.01:29:47 — Carlton's Astonishing Revival Three straight wins. Ranked 16th in forward-50 entries a month ago; now second. The game style is unrecognisable — no more bombing the ball to non-existent power forwards. Mitch McGovern's low, flat kick to Patrick Cripps for the match-winner against Geelong was emblematic of the transformation. Seven players aged 21 or younger are now getting games and bringing energy.01:33:18 — FIFA World Cup 2026: Nobody's Excited Expanded to 48 teams, Scotland are going — and a Scot in his 30s told Jack that neither he nor any of his mates (all doing well financially, normally first on the plane) have any interest. Ticket prices are "extraordinary." The final is at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey — which Jack describes as "Waverley on steroids, but even more bleak."01:36:08 — Australia's Draw Socceroos face Turkey first up, then the United States. Jack suggests marketing it as "Gallipoli Round Two." Spain are favourites; England, Brazil, and Germany are in the chasing pack.01:37:06 — Cricket: England v New Zealand, First Test at Lord's Joel runs through New Zealand's likely top seven — Latham, Conway, Williamson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell — noting the first four have all made Test double-centuries. "Just about the best first six in Test cricket." With O'Rourke's express pace and Henry's quality, this is a formidable Black Caps side.01:38:40 — Stump Speech & Next Week Listener mail (including an "exposé of who Jack is") held over for next episode. For the record: Hong Kong Jack's CV includes HSC at Assumption College Kilmore, a stint as a carpenter, a law degree from Melbourne University, stints at Holding Redlich and Slater & Gordon, work as a litigation and immigration lawyer, and an appointment to the Refugee Review Tribunal as a federal cabinet appointee.01:40:39 — Outro Joel thanks listeners for hanging in for an extra ten minutes. Back next week.The Two Jacks is recorded weekly. Send your questions and feedback to the show.
Energy Vista: A Podcast on Energy Issues, Professional and Personal Trajectories
In this episode of the Energy Vista Podcast, Leslie Palti-Guzman sits down with energy scholar and foreign policy expert Brenda Shaffer to discuss the energy policy implications of the Iran crisis and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.Brenda argues that policymakers continue to draw the wrong lessons from energy crises. The conversation explores whether some climate policies have weakened energy security. Leslie and Brenda exchange on the role of natural gas in modern economies, Europe's energy challenges, Africa's missed energy investment opportunities, China's growing influence over clean-energy supply chains, and the future of electrification.Listen & Subscribe
The U.S. is at the tail end of an incredible wave of LNG expansion that has so far seen nine new projects across seven terminals reach a final investment decision in a little over a year. Today, we take a closer look at the Commonwealth LNG project and what comes next for U.S. LNG development.
While global electricity demand is unquestionably rising, we may nonetheless be underestimating the scale of necessary future generation. In this episode, Shayle speaks to Nic Fulghum, senior energy and climate data analyst at Ember. Nic is the co-author of Ember's annual Global Electricity Review. This year's installment, released in April, demonstrates that renewable sources – and solar in particular – are continuing to grow exponentially, even as those markets mature. In 2025, solar generation grew by a remarkable 30% year-over-year globally; its highest rate in eight years. At the same time, global fossil generation declined in 2025, driven by drops in coal generation in both China and India. But as solar surges, how quickly grid-connected batteries can step in to absorb peak demand remains to be seen. In their conversation, Shayle and Nic dive deep into the data behind global electricity generation in 2025 and consider the future of the grid. They explore a range of topics, including: - Why Ember's report focuses on generation instead of capacity - How solar continues to maintain exponential growth rates - Why fossil generation has dropped in China and India - How battery storage is being used to shift midday solar peaks to shoulder hours - What the US' LNG supply glut means for its power grid trajectory Resources - Ember's Global Electricity Review 2026 - Catalyst: 2026 trends: Gas turbines, Texas' load queue, and China electrifies - Catalyst: More 2026 trends: Solar costs, oil oversupply, and the startup slump - Catalyst: Scaling America's domestic solar supply chain - Open Circuit: Clean energy didn't collapse in 2025. It adapted - Open Circuit: State of the transition: Oil shocks, power prices, and grid bottlenecks - Latitude Media: The Iran war doesn't give China an energy advantage. The US did - Latitude Media: Putting numbers on China's cleantech influence abroad Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Max Savage Levenson. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor. Tune into Critical Capital, a brand new podcast from Crux and Latitude Studios. Hosted by Crux CEO Alfred Johnson, Critical Capital explores the interlocking forces powering clean and critical infrastructure. Join us every other Tuesday for in-depth conversations at the intersection of energy, government, finance, and global markets. Listen here, or wherever you get podcasts. Catalyst is brought to you by FischTank PR, an award-winning climate and energy tech, renewables, and sustainability-focused PR firm dedicated to elevating the work of both early-stage and established companies. Learn more about their PR approach and how they can support your company's messaging by visiting fischtankpr.com. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Steven Kobos, President and CEO of Excelerate Energy. Steven has served as President and CEO since 2018 and previously spent 11 years as a member of the company's Board of Directors and corporate counsel. Throughout his career, he has worked across global energy markets, including Kuwait, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Finland, Germany, and the Middle East. Excelerate is a global leader in flexible LNG infrastructure solutions, focused on expanding access to reliable, affordable, and secure natural gas. The company operates one of the world's largest fleets of Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs) and provides integrated LNG solutions spanning the entire value chain. We were thrilled to hear Steven's perspective on the evolving and increasingly complex global energy landscape. In our conversation, we explore the evolution of the global LNG market, the impact of U.S. shale on Excelerate's business model, and why the company has increasingly focused on integrated LNG and infrastructure solutions rather than simply providing floating regasification assets. We discuss the growing importance of energy security following recent geopolitical disruptions, including tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Steven's recent visit to the region, and the role LNG continues to play in supporting power generation, industrial growth, and economic development around the world. Steven walks us through Excelerate's newest FSRU, the Acadia, the company's expanding opportunities in Iraq, and how LNG imports are helping address power shortages and energy deficits across emerging markets. We discuss the future growth of global LNG demand, the increasing shift toward long-term supply contracts, the advantages of floating infrastructure versus traditional onshore facilities, and Excelerate's strategy of combining LNG supply with downstream infrastructure to open new markets. We also cover Argentina's Vaca Muerta opportunity, Brazil's hydro-backed power system, Finland's experience with energy security following disruptions to regional gas infrastructure, the growing role of U.S. LNG exports, and the support provided by the Trump Administration to promote American energy abroad. Steven shares several personal anecdotes, including helping launch LNG imports into Kuwait, opening new LNG markets across South Asia, visiting customers throughout the Gulf during the recent conflict, and witnessing firsthand how access to reliable energy can transform communities and economies. We covered a great deal and appreciate Steven for sharing his time and insights. Mike Bradley started the show by noting that markets continue to be driven almost entirely by on-and-off developments in the Middle East. Market sentiment last week was dominated by optimism that Iran and the U.S. were moving toward a Strait of Hormuz resolution, but this week has started with growing concern that a resolution may not be just around the corner. On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield was trading at ~4.5% (up 6-7bps), driven by an Iranian resolution being pushed further to the right and constructive economic data. He noted that the May ISM Manufacturing report showed that U.S. manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in four years. On the crude oil market front, WTI prices spiked ~$6/bbl (to $93/bbl) on concerns that an Iranian resolution could be delayed. The Strait of Hormuz needs to reopen quickly or risk global oil prices moving substantially higher, as oil markets enter the higher-demand summer months with critically low inventory levels. From an energy equity perspective, the Energy sector was up ~2% so far this week after a 5% pullback last week. On the broader equity market front, markets were modestly weaker as investors appeared unprepared for the prospect of an Iranian resolution being pushed further into the future. He ended by highlighting two IPOs scheduled to price over the next two weeks. Equity investors are most excited about the SpaceX IPO (expected to price next week at a ~$2T valuation). He also highlighted INNIO Holdings, a gas power system manufacturer that is expected to price later this week (raising ~$2B at a ~$20B valuation), which should provide a good read on how bullish sentiment remains across the engine manufacturing and distributed generation segments. Mark Castiglione added his questions and perspective to the discussion as well.
Day 1,558.Today, as more civilians across Ukraine are murdered by Russia in the latest mass aerial attack we look to the US for a response, given Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week that Russia planned only to strike Ukrainian "decision-making centers". We ask, again, when the United Nations is going to take a meaningful interest in the war, and look at the continuing diplomatic spat between Ukraine and Poland. And later, we examine possibly the most consequential election for Putin in years: this weekend's contest in Armenia and a, perhaps surprising, intervention by Donald Trump.Contributors: Dom Nicholls (Host on Ukraine: The Latest). @DomNicholls on X.Venetia Rainey (Telegraph journalist and host on Iran: The Latest). @venetiarainey on X.James Kilner (Russia Analyst). @Jkjourno on X.Producer: Phil AtkinsSenior Producer: Lilian FawcettVideo Producer: Sophie O'SullivanSocial Producer: Katie InglisStudio Director: Meghan SearleExecutive Editor: Francis DearnleyCreated by David KnowlesNOW IN FULL VIDEO WITH MAPS & BATTLEFIELD FOOTAGE:Every episode is now available on our YouTube channel shortly after the release of the audio version. You will find it here: https://www.youtube.com/@UkraineTheLatest CONTENT REFERENCED:Listen to our sister podcast, Iran: The Latest: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/iran--the-latest/Read the Irish Times' coverage of the Aughinish Alumina story: https://www.irishtimes.com/tags/aughinish-alumina/Magyar signals Ukraine reset ahead of expected talks with Zelenskyy next week (Politico)https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-peter-magyar-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-upcoming-talks/Danish shipyard still servicing LNG tankers for Russia trade (Financial Times)https://www.ft.com/content/945c6085-e14a-4acb-8e41-3986e7486480?syn-25a6b1a6=1Russian Officer Accused of Bucha Atrocities Secures Candidate Slot for Parliament Elections (United 24 Media) https://united24media.com/world/russian-officer-accused-of-bucha-atrocities-secures-candidate-slot-for-parliament-elections-19382 EMAIL US:Contact the team on ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk. We continue to read every message, and seek to respond to as many on air and in our newsletter as possible.HIGHLIGHTS:'Loser' Putin rains missiles on Ukraine as Russia 'out of ideas' Zelensky warns Moscow there are ‘no safe roads' in south and east Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Join the Cognitive Dissidents as they examine recent events with an eye toward understanding what's really going on behind the official narratives, planning ahead and keeping the lines of communication open to help keep like-minded people sane! This week the Dissidents discuss the crazy deal the Trump Administration made with the Trump Administration to insulate him and everyone he knows and loves from ever being harassed by the govt for anything they've done or might be accused of doing in the future. We also discuss China, LNG, the North American Union, Cuba, the American election cycle and so much more. Find, Follow, Subscribe & Rate on your favorite podcasting platform AND for video and social & more... Website: https://monicaperezshow.com/ Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/monicaperezshow Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/c/MonicaPerez Twitter/X: @monicaperezshow Instagram: @monicaperezshow Find Hrvoje Moric: Website: https://geopoliticsandempire.com/ Substack: https://substack.com/@geopoliticsandempire Twitter/X: @HrvojePM Find Parallel Mike and Parallel Systems Broadcast: Parallel Mike Podcast: https://parallelmike.com Community & Financial Newsletter: https://www.patreon.com/parallelsystems YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@parallelsystems Twitter/X: @parallel_mike Substack: https://substack.com/@parallelmike Patreon: http://patreon.com/parallelsystems Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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