Podcasts about q1 gdp

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Best podcasts about q1 gdp

Latest podcast episodes about q1 gdp

Money Wise
May Market Momentum, A Gloomy Wall Street, & Equity Index Annuities

Money Wise

Play Episode Listen Later May 31, 2025 81:36


The Money Wise guys kick off this week's episode with a reflection on last week's numbers from Wall Street. They report that the markets closed out May on a high note, with all three major indices posting solid weekly gains and even stronger monthly returns. The Dow rose 1.6%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.9%, and the NASDAQ led the charge with a 2% increase. For the month of May, the NASDAQ soared 9.6%, the S&P 500 jumped 6.2%, and the Dow finished up 3.9%. The team goes on to highlight the second revision of Q1 GDP and the latest core PCE reading—formerly the Fed's go-to inflation gauge. With year-over-year PCE now at 2.1%, the data suggests inflation is nearing the Fed's 2% target, igniting debate about when rate cuts may finally happen. However, the media continues its gloom-heavy narrative, with financial figures like Jamie Dimon casting shadows of stagflation and looming bond market stress, despite signs of economic resilience. Later in the show, the team does a deep dive into proper portfolio construction, because how your investments are structured can make or break your financial goals.  A Gloomy Wall Street Despite the strong performance across the markets in May, Wall Street sentiment remains surprisingly downbeat. Financial media and major voices like Jamie Dimon continue to push cautionary narratives, raising concerns about stagflation, cracks in the bond market, and long-term economic risks. Even as inflation readings like the core PCE show progress toward the Fed's target, the tone from many in the financial world leans more pessimistic than the data might warrant. It's a reminder that headlines often lag reality, and that investors need to stay focused on facts, not fear. In the second hour, the Money Wise guys discuss Equity Index Annuities. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

Making Sense
You Won't Believe What South Korea's Central Bank Just Did

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2025 22:15


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/South Korea had been on the side of the Fed, sticking with interest rates opting to see about trade war "uncertainty" before doing anything. That lasted all of four weeks. The list of central banks able to sit by and watch CPI has thinned down to just the one Mr. Powell runs. And the update to Q1 GDP in the US holds the key as to why.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bank of Korea Flags More Rate Cuts to Come as Tariffs Hit Growthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bok-cuts-rate-to-cushion-economy-from-tariffs-political-turmoilCNBC Bank of Korea lowers interest rates for the fourth time, flags more cuts aheadhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/29/south-korea-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-.htmlChosunBiz Bank of Korea lowers interest rate to 2.50%, signals possibility of further cutshttps://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/05/29/E5KPW2LQYFGPRF5EM5G3RUM4XQ/Bloomberg Banxico Sees Growth of 0.1% This Year, Rules Out Recessionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bank-lending-to-private-credit-funds-swells-145-in-five-yearshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Dividend Cafe
Thursday - May 29, 2025

The Dividend Cafe

Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2025 8:10


Market Updates, Tariffs Overruling, and Economic Indicators In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from the West Palm Beach, Florida office discusses the day's positive market movements and notable economic events. Key topics include the overruling of tariffs by the US International Trade Court, revisions to Q1 GDP, jobless claims, and pending home sales data. The episode also addresses questions about high-frequency trading and rising treasury yields, emphasizing the potential deflationary impact of global indebtedness and market dynamics. Brian provides insights into the factors affecting market volatility and offers a preview of upcoming inflation data. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:35 Impact of US Trade Court Ruling on Tariffs 01:41 Economic Indicators and Employment Data 03:01 High Frequency Trading and Market Volatility 03:46 Rising Treasury Yields and Global Debt 06:33 Conclusion and Upcoming Insights Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe
Wednesday - May 28, 2025

The Dividend Cafe

Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2025 7:59


Market Insights and Sovereign Debt Discussion - Dividend Cafe In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the recent market movements following a significant rise due to a delay in tariffs on the EU. He covers the Richmond Fed survey results, FOMC meeting minutes, and the implications of long-term sovereign debt yields, particularly from Japan. Brian also breaks down the ownership of US Treasury debt and the impact of foreign investments. Looking ahead, he previews upcoming economic data releases, including Q1 GDP, jobless claims, pending home sales, and PCE data. Listeners are briefed on the market's current status and forthcoming economic indicators. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:35 Economic Calendar and Market Sentiment 00:51 Impact of Trade Announcements 01:55 Sovereign Debt and Treasury Holdings 03:46 Japan's Debt and Yield Curve Control 05:43 Upcoming Economic Data and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

StockInvest.us Stock Podcast
#25/2025 - Time For Next Upturn?

StockInvest.us Stock Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2025 26:37


The markets are having a natural correction down after the strong re-bounce from the tariff scare. With strong support below the charts indicate that Nasdaq soon may get back to growth. Quarter result for Nvidia (NVDA) will be the main event for the shortened trading week alongside revised Q1 GDP and some inflation numbers on Friday.In this week's podcast 5 new stocks with high short term score is listed and as usual there is an insight into the $1000 challenge that currently sits at $2.969.This and much more in this week's "Trading Tips With Jim".© 2025 StockInvest.us from UAB "Exigam"

ASEAN Speaks
Singapore's Safe Haven Potential

ASEAN Speaks

Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2025 19:29


In this week's episode of ASEAN Speaks, our host Thilan reviews Singapore's Q1 GDP outperformance and unpacks selected safe-haven stock picks.Economist Brian Lee joins us to discuss the driving factors behind Singapore's GDP growth and growth forecasts for subsequent quarters.Thilan discusses ISO team's outlook given the anticiapted influx of HDB tenders post General Election amongst other structural tailwinds.Eric Ong reviews LHN Ltd's H1 figures and whther the company will be able to sustain this momentum moving forwards.Finally, Hussaini discusses Singtel's strong quarter with a focus on management's plan to increase shareholder returns. He also speaks on the current competitive landscape for ASEAN internet stocks.Edited by Bruce, Dion, Abdullah, Xuan Hao

Economy Watch
The turbulent ride continues

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later May 25, 2025 7:37


Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we have ended a turbulent week where the USD fell, US Treasury benchmark rates rose, and equities retreated. Gold jumped.The turbulence will continue into this coming week with the US president lashing out because his signature tariff policies aren't producing the economic growth or reshoring he anticipated and other countries have worked out how to game him. His new lashes are at the EU, and Apple, for not reshoring. Neither seem in awe of his power any more.But first, the coming week will be dominated by Wednesday's ORC review where a -25 bps rate cut to 3.25% is widely anticipated. Earlier that day there will be a dairy Pulse auction too.In Australia, they will update their monthly consumer price indicator, also on Wednesday. Elsewhere, South Korea will be reviewing its monetary policy settings this week, and Japan will release important industrial production, retail sales, and consumer sentiment updates.In the US, after their long weekend, markets are bracing for another uncertain week, driven by those tariff threats from Trump targeting the European Union and Apple. Investors will also focus on commentary from Fed officials, as well as the FOMC meeting minutes. Key US economic indicators include personal income and spending, the PCE price indices, durable goods orders, trade balance, the second estimate of Q1 GDP growth, corporate profits, pending home sales among others.But first we should note in China, their central bank injected ¥500 bln (NZ$120 bln) of new liquidity into financial institutions through their one-year medium-term lending facility on Friday. But that was less than the ¥600 bln added in April.China's net foreign direct investment actually fell in April from March, a very unusual shift. The fall wasn't large at -US$4.8 bln for the month but a notable shift from the +US$7.2 bln rise in April 2024 which was considered unusually small. Go back to April 2023 and it was +US$14.1 bln and +US$15.4 bln the year before. In the past two years, the August levels have stalled (but not retreated) and this is the first we have ever seen where there was a net outflow of foreign investment from China in a month. And Nikkei is reporting that the protracted real estate woes are pushing down lending rates, and now 80% of Chinese banks have seen their interest margins fall below the industry threshold for profitability, raising concerns over the sector's stability. Fifty-four of 58 commercial banks listed in mainland China and Hong Kong posted reduced interest margins compared with the previous fiscal year, according to the analysis, which evaluated financial results announced for the year ended December 2024.Japanese inflation is holding high, and came in at 3.6% in April, the same as in March. But that was its lowest since December. Food prices rose the least in four months but were still up +6.5% from a year ago, down from the March +7.4%. This dip came after the government took steps to curb rice prices that have doubled over the past year. High rice prices have cost the government minister 'responsible' for that sector his job last week.In Singapore, April CPI inflation held art a very low 0.9%, but that belies the monthly fall of -0.3% from March. This is the second month in a row they have had month-on-month deflation. That is largely due to falling costs for clothing, household durables, and entertainment. Food price increases were modest.Taiwanese retail sales growth was weak again in April. It hasn't really recovered after the unexpectedly large drop in February, bumping along essentially at year-ago levels.But Taiwanese industrial production is on fire, rising another sharp +22% in April from the same month a year ago. That is the best growth rate on record for them, apart from the distorted pandemic recovery.Across the Pacific in the US, this is the long Memorial Day holiday weekend in the US, the start of their summer season which won't end until their Labor Day holiday on September 1. (Traditional investors "sold in May, and went away" because volumes lighten and become more volatile over this northern summer period.)This is also the start of the US summer 'driving season'. American petrol prices are currently averaging US$3.196/US gallon. That is NZ$1.41/L. (A year ago it was +10% higher, equivalent to NZ$1.566/L.)And it is the start of their barbeque season. But prices are likely to rise further from the already record high levels because the number of cattle on feedlots is down, and the amount of beef stored in freezers is lower too.But of course, business carries on. There was an unusually large rise in new home sales in the US in April, taking them up to an annualised rate of 743,000, a level they haven't seen since mid-2022. After a string of weak months (and downwardly revised earlier data) builders are now resorting to widespread incentives to move stock, and it seems to have worked in April. Housing starts remained weak, and new building consents are declining still.In Australia and on their eastern seaboard it has been very wet with widespread flooding. And that is having a substantial impact on rural output. In particular, milk volumes are falling and milk prices are rising fast.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.51%, and down -1 bp from this time Saturday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,357/oz, and down -US$5 from Saturday. But that makes it +US$170 higher than a week ago, a +5.5% jump.Oil prices are holding at just on US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just under US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is still at 59.9 USc, and unchanged from Saturday at this time. A week ago it was at 58.8 USc so an outsized +110 bps rise since then. Against the Aussie we are holding at just under 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just under 67.8 and unchanged but up +40 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,270 and down -2.5% from Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Real Vision Presents...
Japan's GDP Slip, Eurozone Trade Surplus, and Surprise U.S. PPI Drop: PALvatar Market Recap, May 16 2025

Real Vision Presents...

Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2025 5:00


Drunk Real Estate
96. GDP Down, Rate Cuts Delayed & CRE on Ice – What's the Fed Waiting For?

Drunk Real Estate

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2025 93:48


Episode 96: GDP Miss, Fed Paralysis & a Frozen Real Estate Market This week on Drunk Real Estate, we're diving deep into the Q1 GDP shock, the Fed's continued delay on rate cuts, and why the commercial real estate market is stalled but not yet crashing. With inflation cooling and employment softening, many expected the Fed to pivot—but Powell seems stuck in neutral. Meanwhile, global trade shifts, delayed refinancing, and rising CRE debt risks are quietly reshaping the economy. - GDP miss: What went wrong—and what it might mean - Why Powell isn't cutting rates yet, even with softening inflation - Commercial real estate is frozen—what's keeping it from breaking? - Import surges, trade distortions, and recession warning signs - What investors need to watch in Q2 and beyond Grab a drink and join the crew for unfiltered insight on markets, policy, and the strange macro environment we're in.  

Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese
Slowing, not cracking (Ep. 134)

Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2025 47:55


In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the messy, muddy Q1 GDP report and break down why the headline number might be misleading. They also explain the disconnect between public sentiment and actual economic data, touch on Warren Buffett's retirement announcement, set expectations for the Fed's next move, and more.Key Takeaways:GDP Looks Weak at First Glance—But Isn't: GDP for Q1 came in negative for the first time in three years, but parsing the data shows there are still plenty of signals—though also plenty of uncertainty.A Fond Farewell: Ryan and Sonu reflect on Warren Buffett's remarkable career after his announcement over the weekend that he'd be stepping away from Berkshire Hathaway.Consumer Spending Still Strong: Consumer spending has remained high even amid tariff uncertainty, but auto sales have been a sign of weakness.Fed Uncertainty: Though it's still unclear when or if the Fed might cut rates, we should get some clarity this week.Earnings Beat Expectations: Q1 earnings came in ahead of expectations, buoying the market during an uncertain time.Strong Stocks: The market ended April and opened May with a nine-day winning streak, a sign of resilience amid tariff uncertainty. Connect with Ryan:•       LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick•       X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:•       LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese•       X: @sonusvargheQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com  #FactsVsFeelings #GDPGrowth #ConsumerSpending #ImmigrationEconomics #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #StockMarketUpdate #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #EconomicReality #RecessionMyth #StagflationDebunked

Triad Podcast Network
Locked In Podcast| Economic Uncertainty: Navigating GDP Decline and Consumer Confidence

Triad Podcast Network

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2025 31:55


We're joined by Dr. Jeff Sarbaum, Senior Economist at UNC Greensboro, to dissect the latest economic indicators. With a Q1 GDP contraction, plummeting consumer confidence, and looming retail concerns, we explore what these trends mean for the U.S. economy and everyday Americans.The Triad Podcast Network is proudly sponsored by The Ginther Group Real Estate, Dewey's Bakery, and Three Magnolias Financial Advisors.

X22 Report
Marker [9] Confirmed, 11.11 Strategic Marker, America Unified Again, Justice, Think Nov 3 – Ep. 3636

X22 Report

Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2025 104:49


Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump's tariffs are now taking its toll on the Chinese economy, bank report a profit drop of 1 billion in the first quarter. Chinese companies are now moving to the US. The GDP numbers that were reported do not show the true picture, next quarter everything will adjust and the US will be coming out of the recession that Biden created. The [DS] is losing every step of the way, the more they try to defend the indefensible the worse it gets. The people are waking up and the country is becoming unified. When we vote in the midterms and we take control of the house and senate Trump and We The People will have the power we need to cast out the [DS] players. Market [9] confirmed, justice is coming, Panic in DC.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/1919727595836604436   States Chinese Companies Are Moving Their Manufacturing to the U.S. in Order to Avoid Trump's Tariffs (DCNF)—A growing wave of Chinese manufacturers are packing up and moving to the United States under the weight of President Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods. “The United States accounts for nearly 95% of our orders. It's not a market we can afford to lose,” Ryan Zhou, who runs a novelty gift business in eastern China, said, as reported by the SCMP. Zhou is opening a new facility in Dallas next month as a result of a 90% tariff on Chinese shipments to the United States. Zhu Ning, a consultant who advises Chinese firms on overseas expansion, says he's handled more than 100 relocation inquiries in the last four months alone, a level of interest that was unheard of before Trump's tariffs kicked in, per the SCMP. These are not American companies coming back, but they are Chinese companies coming in to the United States for the first time. For years, they undercut American workers by exploiting loopholes and subsidies, leading to an influx of cheap goods and synthetic goods. Now they are scrambling to stay afloat. Now, Chinese petrochemical firms are starting to plant roots in the United States. Ye Yingmin, the founder of a chemical consulting firm in Beijing, says the United States has become a hotbed of interest for Chinese investment. “We're seeing Chinese firms preparing to invest heavily in places like Texas,” Ye told the SCMP.  Source: libertdaily.com https://twitter.com/IanJaeger29/status/1919452951984087307 What Recession: Goldman Now Expects Q2 GDP To Surge To 2.4%   We didn't have long to wait, and with most banks now quietly revising their economic estimates higher - certainly far more quietly than they were to declare that a recession is imminent - overnight Goldman became the flagbearer (bearing the white flag that is), when Hatzius published a report in which he now anticipates Q2 surging to 2.4% from -0.3%, which would make it higher than the average GDP print reported  since the start of 2022. Not only that, but when discussing the -0.3% GDP print for Q1, Goldman said that "inventory investment was significantly understated, which means that GDP was significantly understated too." In short, Q1 GDP will be revised positive, and Q2 could push to 3% or higher! Q1 GDP printed at -0.3% annualized, but frontloading of imports probably significantly understates this number. In theory, frontloading should be neutral because it boosts imports (which enter the calculation of expenditure-side GDP negatively) but raises consumer spending, business fixed investment, and inventory investment (which all enter positively) by an equal ...

Locked In with Algenon Cash
Economic Uncertainty: Navigating GDP Decline and Consumer Confidence

Locked In with Algenon Cash

Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2025 28:40


Today, we're joined by Dr. Jeff Sarbaum, Senior Economist at UNC Greensboro, to dissect the latest economic indicators. With a Q1 GDP contraction, plummeting consumer confidence, and looming retail concerns, we explore what these trends mean for the U.S. economy and everyday Americans. The post Economic Uncertainty: Navigating GDP Decline and Consumer Confidence appeared first on Algenon Cash.

Real Vision Presents...
Trump's 100% Tariff, Strong Jobs Data, and Q1 GDP Contraction: PALvatar Market Recap, May 05 2025

Real Vision Presents...

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2025 3:01


Smartinvesting2000
May 2nd, 2025 | Chinese Stocks, Jobs Report, Job Openings, Recession, Home Title Theft, Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (ZBH), Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO), Northrop Grumman (NOC) & (GOOG)

Smartinvesting2000

Play Episode Listen Later May 3, 2025 55:40


Should the United States delist Chinese stocks? At first thought with all the craziness of the trade war it sounds like delisting all the Chinese companies from the American stock markets may be a good idea. It is important to know that there are 286 Chinese companies listed on major US stock exchanges. You'll recognize some of the names like Alibaba, Baidu and JD.com. It is estimated by analysts at Goldman Sachs that US institutional investors currently own about $830 billion worth of Chinese stocks. That is more than two times what the Chinese own of US stocks as that is estimated around $370 billion. But a quick sell off could bring down stock valuations and make it difficult to get out of many of these stocks on both sides. An important piece of information I brought up a couple years ago was the Accountable Act which came to be in 2020. This allows the Securities Exchange Commission to ban foreign companies from trading if American regulators are not allowed to inspect the auditors for three years in a row. I always worry about Chinese companies because of what I call government accounting. They are not held to the same accounting standards there and I believe companies may list financial statements based on what the government tells them. There have been some Chinese companies that delisted themselves rather than going through an audit. I think that tells you quite a bit. My feeling is we should not delist all the Chinese stocks that trade on American stock exchanges under what is known as ADRs, but be sure that the Chinese companies have the same transparency as American companies when it comes to their financial statements. If we can't get that transparency, then those companies should be delisted.    Jobs report shows more evidence the economy is in good shape US nonfarm payrolls grew by 177k in the month of April, which easily topped the estimate of 133k. Jobs remained robust in health care as the sector added 51k jobs in the month of April and employment in transportation and warehousing and financial activities was also strong as the groups added 29k and 14k jobs respectively in the month. Other categories like construction, manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, and retail trade saw little or no change in payrolls, while government declined by 9k jobs in the month. Government jobs are now down by 26k since January, but remember employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are still counted as employed. This likely means we will continue to see losses accelerate in this category as the year continues. Negatives in the report included the fact that employment numbers were revised down by a total of 58k in the previous two months. Also, April's reading was lighter than March's reading of 185k, but considering the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, I still see these jobs gains as impressive, especially with all the negativity that people have been discussing. With that said, I still do anticipate weaker numbers in terms of the payroll additions in future months, but if the unemployment rate remains low I don't see that as a problem. On the inflation front, we also got good news with average hourly earnings rising just 3.8%. I see this as a healthy increase that does not put pressure on inflation like when wages were growing over 5% in 2022.     Job openings look problematic on the surface In the March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, job openings totaled 7.2 million. This was below February's reading of 7.5 million and the estimate, which also stood at 7.5 million. This is still not super concerning to me. We tend to forget how strong the labor market has been and while we continue to see a softening, there is plenty of room before I see cause for concern. Just for reference, job openings in 2019 averaged approximately 7.2 million, in 2018 they averaged approximately 6.8 million, and in 2017 they averaged approximately 6.2 million. Compare that to where we are today and that should give you more comfort. Another area I saw as positive in the report was the fact that quits totaled 3.3 million, which produced a quit rate of 2.1%. This is important because if people were truly concerned about a major slowdown and thought they would not be able to find work elsewhere, I don't believe they would be quitting their jobs. These quit numbers are still quite close to 2019 levels, which many considered as a very strong economy. That year quits averaged approximately 3.5 million and there was an average quit rate of about 2.3%. Also in the report, we saw layoffs remained quite low at 1.6 million. Back in 2019, layoffs averaged around 1.8 million per month. There is no doubt that uncertainty remains and that will have some impact on businesses and their hiring plans, but in terms of it pushing the economy into a major recession, since we are coming from such a healthy level, I just don't see that happening.   Are we in the middle of a recession? The first reading of Q1 GDP showed a decrease of 0.3%. A recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, so some may argue we are half way there. Let us not forget in 2022 we did see two consecutive quarters of declining GDP as Q1 declined 1.4% and Q2 showed an advance estimate that was down 0.9%. After further research the second quarter ended up seeing a total reversal and it is now reported to have actually grown by 0.3%. Even with the difficult start, that year ended with a 2.1% growth rate. We also can't forget that the National Bureau of Economy Research (NBER) makes the official call on recession and they use a broader set of indicators that led them not to declare a recession in 2022. I say all of this because I still believe even if we hit a technical recession, if employment remains strong, I don't believe we would have an “official” recession. I am still unsure that we will even see Q2 GDP decline and we could also see revisions to Q1 that lift it to a positive reading. I say this because if you look at the actual underlying numbers in the report, it is not nearly as bad as the headline decline. On the positive front, consumer spending actually grew 1.8% in the quarter as services showed a nice increase of 2.4%. Also, private domestic investment saw a surge of 21.9%, this was led by investments in equipment as they grew 22.5% in the quarter. You might be asking with numbers like these how did we see a negative GDP? To start, government spending fell 1.4% in the quarter. This was led by a decline of 5.1% in spending by the federal government. The group as a whole ended up subtracting 0.25% from the headline GDP number. While this was impactful, the real reason for the decline in GDP was trade. Companies were trying to get ahead of looming tariffs and imports surged 41.3%. This compared to an increase of just 1.8% for exports. The huge discrepancy caused the trade component of GDP to decrease the headline number by 4.83%! While the economy is no doubt digesting these trade conversations and the tariffs, I still believe the economy is in alright shape when you look at the underlying numbers. I did also want to mention more good news on inflation as the March headline PCE showed an increase of 2.3%, which compares to last month's reading of 2.7% and core PCE came in at just 2.6%, which was a nice decline from February's reading of 3.0%. I believe these numbers will likely increase with the tariffs, but underlying inflation looks to be quite healthy.   Financial Planning: Protecting Yourself from Home Title Theft Home title theft is a type of real estate fraud where someone illegally transfers the ownership of your home by forging your name on title documents.  This is often done using stolen personal information to file fraudulent deeds with the county recorder's office. Once the title appears to be in their name, the thief may try to take out loans against the property, sell it to an unsuspecting buyer, or use it in other schemes that could put your home and finances at risk. This crime can go undetected for months if property owners aren't actively monitoring their title.  Having a mortgage or HELOC on your house can make it more difficult for a thief to steal your title since the bank has a lien against the property, but it is still possible. There are private companies that charge monthly fees to alert you of changes to your home title, but they do not prevent the title from being stolen.  You can also purchase home title insurance that will help pay for legal fees if you have to go to court if your title is stolen.  Homeowners in San Diego County can access a free alternative called “Owner Alert”. Jordan Marks who is the San Diego County Assessor/Recorder/County Clerk was behind this, and it is a great benefit that all San Diego property owners should take advantage of.  This service works by notifying you by email whenever a document is recorded against your property, helping you catch potential fraud early.  Signing up is simple and can be done on the San Diego County Assessor's website. You just need your name, email address, and parcel number and it provides the same type of monitoring offered by paid services, making it unnecessary to spend money for peace of mind when this tool is already available for free.   Companies Discussed: Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (ZBH), Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

UBS On-Air
Top of the Morning: April Jobs Report, Q1 GDP, & the week ahead

UBS On-Air

Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2025 11:54


We close out a busy macro week with thoughts from Brian on the latest US employment and GDP data. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Mind the Macro
A Slowing Economy

Mind the Macro

Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2025 22:03


This week we discuss the Q1 GDP release although with the latest jobs report and inflation numbers.

The Ben Shapiro Show
Ep. 2190 - The Biggest Danger To The Trump Administration

The Ben Shapiro Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 60:40


The Q1 GDP statistics come in, and they're not good; Kamala Harris makes her grand reappearance; and we are joined by the Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee. Click here to join the member-exclusive portion of my show: https://bit.ly/3WDjgHE Ep.2190 - - - Facts Don't Care About Your Feelings - - - DailyWire+: Join us at https://dailywire.com/subscribe and become part of the rebellion against the ridiculous. Normal is back. And this time, we're keeping it. The hit podcast, Morning Wire, is now on Video! Watch Now and subscribe to their YouTube channel: https://bit.ly/3RFOVo6 Get your Ben Shapiro merch here: https://bit.ly/3TAu2cw - - - Today's Sponsors: Perplexity is an AI-powered answer engine that searches the internet to deliver fast, unbiased, high-quality answers, with sources and in-line citations. Ask Perplexity anything here: https://pplx.ai/benshapiro PureTalk - Switch to PureTalk and start saving today! Visit https://PureTalk.com/SHAPIRO Grand Canyon University - Find your purpose at Grand Canyon University. Visit https://gcu.edu today. Boll & Branch - Get 15% off, plus free shipping on your first set of sheets at https://BollAndBranch.com/ben American Investment Council - Learn more about the American Investment Council and private equity at https://investmentcouncil.org - - - Socials: Follow on Twitter: https://bit.ly/3cXUn53 Follow on Instagram: https://bit.ly/3QtuibJ Follow on Facebook: https://bit.ly/3TTirqd Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3RPyBiB

The Julia La Roche Show
#253 Ted Oakley: 'They're Giving You Another Chance to Get Liquidity. You Should Take It'

The Julia La Roche Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 47:00


Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 253 to discuss the economy and markets.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Ted discusses the concerning deterioration in economic indicators despite ongoing investor complacency, warning that earnings expectations are too optimistic while market multiples remain elevated. He shares his approach to maintaining significant liquidity (currently 55%) while selectively investing in value opportunities like consumer staples. Ted also explains his gold strategy, with bullion as a permanent currency hedge and miners as tradable assets. The conversation concludes with insights from his new book "Second Generation Wealth," where he emphasizes the importance of letting children experience financial independence and adversity before introducing them to family wealth.With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm's proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley's primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and welcome0:32 Big picture macro view - deterioration and complacency 2:05 Explaining market complacency despite bearish sentiment 3:21 Liquidity and portfolio positioning 4:45 Appropriate liquidity levels by age group 7:42 Boomers' over-allocation to stocks 8:47 Value Line Investment Survey as a market indicator 10:52 Scaling into investments during market downturns 11:55 Fully invested vs. current 55% liquid strategy 14:09 Market risks: shrinking corporate margins and multiples 16:05 Market decline without recession possibility 17:05 Recent market movement - another chance for liquidity 18:35 Q1 GDP insights and market end-of-month action 19:48 Preparing for potential market scenarios 21:26 Retail buyers and leverage in current market recovery 22:35 Current investment opportunities - consumer staples and value24:48 Gold strategy - bullion as currency hedge vs. miners as trades27:45 Gold's purchasing power preservation over time 30:10 Treasury strategy - staying under two years to maintain control31:36 US fiscal situation and future outlook 33:58 Second Generation Wealth - inheritance and teaching kids about money 36:17 Helping children develop self-esteem and independence 39:16 The importance of adversity and work ethic for children 41:37 Setting an example - treating everyone equally 44:13 Parting thoughts

The Ryan Gorman Show
Q1 GDP Report Analysis - BankRate's Mark Hamrick

The Ryan Gorman Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 9:15


Senior Economic Analyst at BankRate, Mark Hamrick, explains what to make of the Q1 GDP report.

Real Vision Presents...
US and Eurozone GDP, China PMI Slump, and Auto Tariff Relief: PALvatar Market Recap, April 30 2025

Real Vision Presents...

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 3:08


Squawk on the Street
Negative GDP, Starbucks CEO, White House's Navarro on Trade Talks 4/30/25

Squawk on the Street

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 51:21


Carl Quintanilla, David Faber and Jim Cramer kicked off the show with reaction to economic data that sparked Wednesday's market sell-off: The first reading of Q1 GDP showed that the economy contracted in the period, down 0.3-percent. Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol joined the program to discuss his turnaround plan, as the company's earnings and revenue miss weighed heavily on the stock. The anchors interviewed White House senior trade adviser Peter Navarro about where trade talks stand.Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Badlands Media
The Daily Herold: April 30, 2025 – Tariff Battles, Media Traps, and the War on Leaks

Badlands Media

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 43:05 Transcription Available


In this pre-recorded edition of The Daily Herold, Jon Herold checks in from Plymouth ahead of GART to break down a fast-moving news cycle packed with economic shakeups, narrative control tactics, and the GOP's ongoing civil war. Jon unpacks Trump's escalating trade war, including the backlash from Amazon's decision to publicly display tariff costs on product listings, a move Trump's team slammed as politically motivated. He highlights the administration's strategic use of tariffs to drive tax relief and domestic investment, with Scott Bessent outlining plans to fund tax breaks for working Americans using revenue from foreign imports. Jon also digs into Trump's tough stance on leaks, detailing new polygraph testing across national security agencies and the Justice Department's expanded authority to subpoena journalists. He shares mixed thoughts on the ethics and effectiveness of polygraphs and anonymous sourcing, but applauds the administration's aggressive push to root out deep state sabotage. Additional stories include the economic narrative war over Q1 GDP data, the launch of a federal election integrity task force in New Jersey, Congress's failure to act meaningfully while handing out gold medals, and the growing threat of GOP obstruction to Trump's tariff agenda. With sharp takes on the MS-13 narrative trap, Trump's foreign investment deals, and Greg Abbott's speech policing, this episode delivers a wide-angle lens on the first 100 days of disruption.

Follow the Money Weekly Radio
FTM 485: Trade War Fallout (What's Next for Markets?)

Follow the Money Weekly Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 37:28


In this episode, Jerry breaks down the surprise contraction in Q1 GDP and explains how Trump's tariffs triggered an import surge that's rattling markets.He walks listeners through key economic indicators including consumer spending weakness and slowing payroll growth and highlights critical charts tracking the dollar, gold, silver, Bitcoin, and equities.Jerry shares actionable strategies for navigating this turbulent market environment, emphasizing flexibility and data-driven decisions.Finally, Jerry reinforces the importance of adapting to new market realities rather than relying on outdated thinking.

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Wednesday, 30-Apr

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 4:33


US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, coming well off worst levels from the early session and seeing a sharp rally in the closing minutes. Big story today was the soft Q1 GDP report showing economy contracted for the first time since early 2022. ADP private payrolls of 62K missed. GDP price index of 3.5% hotter than estimates. Core PCE price index up 3.5%.

NewsWare‘s Trade Talk
NewsWare's Trade Talk: Wednesday, April 30

NewsWare‘s Trade Talk

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 15:52


S&P Futures are displaying some weakness this morning. On the economic front this morning the Q1 GDP data will be closely monitored. Overnight, China released its factory order for April which came in weak due to the Trump tariffs being implemented. CAT, CZR, GEHC, GNRC, & V are trading higher after their earnings releases. Visa announced a $30B buyback while GEHC announced a $1B share buyback. After the bell today, MSFT, META, QCOM, KLAC & HOOD are scheduled to report. A total of 50, S&P 500 firms are scheduled to report earnings today.

Watchdog on Wall Street
The REAL REASON Nobody Is Having Kids

Watchdog on Wall Street

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 7:59


Listen on:Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i Watch on: https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featuredChris tackles the collapsing U.S. birth rate, echoing Elon Musk's warnings and linking it to skyrocketing costs of living—housing, childcare (30.7% of income in Massachusetts), and education. He dismisses Trump's “baby bonus” as a gimmick, arguing only lower costs via less government interference (e.g., student loans, property taxes) can reverse the trend. Markowski ties this to his Q1 GDP contraction (0.3% drop, tariff-driven) and tourism slump, highlighting economic pressures. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com

Watchdog on Wall Street
Fox News' Charles Payne GOES FULL COMMUNIST

Watchdog on Wall Street

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 6:14


Listen on:Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i Watch on: https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featuredChris rips Fox Business host Charles Payne for attacking Amazon's reported plan to display tariff costs, accusing him of abandoning capitalism for Trump loyalty. Markowski defends Amazon's transparency, mocks Payne's “commie” rhetoric on Jeff Bezos' wealth, and warns of tariff-driven economic damage, citing port standstills and UAW propaganda. He ties this to his Q1 GDP contraction analysis (0.3% drop, 41.3% import surge), predicting recession risks. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com

Watchdog on Wall Street
Tourism Is DEAD In Trump's America

Watchdog on Wall Street

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2025 3:32


Listen on:Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i Watch on: https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featuredChris addresses the sharp decline in U.S. tourism, citing a nearly 10% year-over-year drop in international visitors. He notes Canadians and Mexicans are opting for destinations like Mexico, while Europe sees significant declines, and Asia barely holds steady. Key hotspots like Las Vegas and Miami struggle, with easy restaurant reservations signaling trouble. Markowski ties this to Trump's tariffs and policies, echoing his Q1 GDP contraction analysis (0.3% drop, 41.3% import surge), and warns of economic fallout unless perceptions improve. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com

The Dividend Cafe
Tuesday - April 29, 2025

The Dividend Cafe

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2025 7:58


Market Dynamics Update: Consumer Sentiment and Tariff Changes In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group's Newport Beach headquarters reviews the market's performance on April 29th. Key highlights include a rebound in markets following an auto tariff easement announcement from the White House, a six-day rise in the S&P 500, and a detailed analysis of current treasury yields and interest rate expectations. Brian also discusses consumer sentiment, which has hit its lowest since early 2020, analyzing its implications for market behavior. Additional updates cover job openings, specifically the Jolts number, the Case-Shiller housing index, and expectations for upcoming economic data releases, including core PCE data, private payroll numbers, and Q1 GDP preliminaries. Lastly, there's a focus on earnings reports, emphasizing the forward guidance amidst trade uncertainties. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:47 Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators 01:53 Auto Tariff Updates and Economic Calendar 02:35 Consumer Confidence and Job Openings 04:22 Housing Market and Upcoming Data 05:02 Earnings Season Insights 06:03 Conclusion and Viewer Engagement Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

StockInvest.us Stock Podcast
#18/2025 - Will the good markets continue?

StockInvest.us Stock Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2025 29:05


After a strong market performance, the big question now is—will the momentum continue? The coming week is packed with earnings reports from major companies including Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), ExxonMobil (XOM), Reddit (RDDT), Roblox (RBLX), and CVS. Additionally, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A & BRK-B) will close out the week with their earnings report.But that's not all—important economic indicators such as Q1 GDP figures and PCE numbers are also scheduled for release. This combination of corporate earnings and economic data sets the stage for a potentially volatile week, one that could either see continued market gains or a sharp reversal.In other exciting news, the $1000 challenge continues its impressive climb, now surpassing the $3000 mark and currently standing at $3,305.Join me for all this and more on this week's episode of "Trading Tips With Jim."

Squawk Box Europe Express
China posts 5.4% growth in Q1 GDP

Squawk Box Europe Express

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 16, 2025 25:35


China's economy expands by 5.4 per cent in the first quarter but President Trump's levies on the country fuel concerns about further stimulus measures from Beijing. ASML net bookings are down with the Dutch chip maker warning the Trump tariffs have heightened demand uncertainty. The U.S. president has called for a tariff probe into critical minerals, pushing mining stocks down and potentially opening a new front in his tariff offensive. Nvidia shares tumble after the semi-conductor giant warned of a $5.5bn charge for Q1 related to GPU chip exports to China. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Nomura Podcasts
The Week Ahead - Something's Gotta Give

Nomura Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 11, 2025 28:45


Global financial markets remain on edge after a rebound from the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs for most countries except China. In this episode, we discuss the path forward for negotiations with US trade partners. We also discuss Europe's changing stance to negotiate rather than retaliate, and the ECB looking set to cut again next week. In Asia, we outline the posture from Beijing, with the Q1 GDP data also on tap.  We end with a special segment with Rob Subbaraman, Head of Global Macro Research, who offers his perspectives on major global questions, including how damaging the ‘tariff shock' could be on global growth, and possible reasons behind the on-going decline in US asset prices. Chapters: US (02:08), Europe (07:30), China (12:25), Rest of Asia (17:48), Tariffs (19:16).  

The Daily Business & Finance Show
Tariff Fears & GDP Concerns Rise (+6 more stories)

The Daily Business & Finance Show

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 4, 2025 5:43


The Daily Business and Finance Show - Tuesday, 4 March 2025 We get our business and finance news from Seeking Alpha and you should too! Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium for more in-depth market news and help support this podcast. Free for 14-days! Please click here for more info: Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium News Today's headlines: Nasdaq plunges more than 2%; S&P, Dow also drop as fears over Trump's tariff plans sink in Atlanta Fed's GDPnow model sees Q1 GDP deeper in the red after ISM release Taiwan Semi Chairman, CEO Wei to appear at White House for announcement Avoiding the Magnificent 7 and the Nasdaq-100 are still key to returns in 2025 Oil slides to three-month low as OPEC brings production cuts back online starting April 1 Bitcoin's back to where it started after strategic reserve spike Investors may be riding a ‘bucking bronco' stock market into April Celestica files for automatic mixed securities shelf Palantir could see more deals, IT dollars from Washington: Wedbush Explanations from OpenAI ChatGPT API with proprietary prompts. This podcast provides information only and should not be construed as financial or business advice. This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The KE Report
Marc Chandler - GDP Forecast Major Reversal, Possible Market Fears & Market Moves

The KE Report

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 2, 2025 15:22


Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Editor of Marc To Market joins us to discuss a major revision by the Atlanta Fed, which downgraded its Q1 GDP growth forecast from over 2% to -1.5%. Marc interprets this significant change in the forecast, highlighting weak economic data and declining real personal consumption rates as key contributors to this adjustment.    With U.S. interest rates falling, Marc explains the inverse relationship seen in the bond market rally, driven by market fears and uncertainties regarding tariffs and U.S. equity markets.    He dives deep into the complexities of market expectations for Fed policy adjustments, including forecasts for multiple rate cuts by June and September. Global trade tensions are another focal point, particularly concerning the confusion around the timings and sectors affected by new tariffs. Marc elaborates on the potential impact of these tariffs on the U.S. and global economies, positing that these actions could lead to long-lasting changes in global supply chains and international relations.    We also preview major upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. Jobs data for February, Eurozone CPI reports, and the European Central Bank's anticipated rate cuts. Finally, Marc contemplates the broader economic environment, discussing risks of a recession amid market uncertainties, debt levels, and ongoing policy changes.   Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market. 

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Will Stocks Fall Even Further From Here? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 1, 2025 100:58


This week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors.But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over?Or, is this merely a head-fake before prices resume their decline?Adding to the uncertainty is the sudden rash of recession worries making it back into media headlines. The latest consumer confidence numbers are plummeting and the Atlanta GDPNow's Q1 GDP estimate suddenly plunged to a negative forecast.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all of this, plus what the latest technical analysis is telling us, rising bond prices, DOGE, the weakening housing market, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.TIME'S RUNNING OUT! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Will Stocks Fall Even Further From Here? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 1, 2025 100:58


This week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors.But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over?Or, is this merely a head-fake before prices resume their decline?Adding to the uncertainty is the sudden rash of recession worries making it back into media headlines. The latest consumer confidence numbers are plummeting and the Atlanta GDPNow's Q1 GDP estimate suddenly plunged to a negative forecast.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all of this, plus what the latest technical analysis is telling us, rising bond prices, DOGE, the weakening housing market, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.TIME'S RUNNING OUT! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Financial Sense(R) Newshour
Higher-than-Expected GDP, Lower Inflation (Preview)

Financial Sense(R) Newshour

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 25, 2024 2:15


Jul 25, 2024 – The GDP figure for the second quarter has just been released, showing a growth rate of 2.8%, surpassing expectations. Economic forecasts had been much lower, around 2.1%. Notably, Q1 GDP was at 1.4%, so Q2 demonstrates...

Wealthion
'A Recession Is Inevitable' | Peter Boockvar

Wealthion

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 2, 2024 27:39


Peter Boockvar discusses the inevitability of a recession and essential strategies to protect your wealth. In this episode of Wealthion, host James Connor speaks with Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer of Bleakly Financial Group and editor of The Boock Report. Boockvar provides a deep dive into the economic landscape, highlighting the inevitability of a recession, the potential for a massive market correction, and shocking insights on inflation. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Introduction  01:36 - Discussion on Q1 GDP and consumer behavior 04:40 - Disparity in consumer spending and economic conditions 06:52 - Expected Q2 GDP and economic predictions 09:08 - Discussion on Core Durable Goods 09:25 - Inflation and its impact 13:04 - Concerns about oil prices and economic implications 14:54 - Fed rate cuts and economic predictions 16:59 - Stock market performance and AI-related stocks 21:25 - Views on generative AI and market returns 22:13 - Asset allocation recommendations 24:21 - Commodity investments and their rationale 26:15 - Conclusion

Wall Street Oasis
Economic Rollercoaster: The Surprising Q1 GDP Report Unveiled! | The Daily Peel

Wall Street Oasis

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 28, 2024 17:23


WSO Weekly Wrapup - ⁠⁠Sign Up for the Newsletter Here⁠⁠ The Daily Peel - Sign Up Here Join our Discord - Sign Up Here

Marketplace All-in-One
A number of economic indicators are pointing to a lull

Marketplace All-in-One

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2024 1:30


Business investment in new capital goods fell in May; continuing jobless claims rose to the highest level in almost three years; Q1 GDP growth revised higher, but still slow; Boeing sanctioned over release of Max investigation details.

Worldwide Exchange
Nike Earnings, Bank Stress Tests, and Reshoring Renaissance 6/27/24

Worldwide Exchange

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2024 42:44


Nike reports earnings after the close today, as a consumer spending slowdown and rising competition weigh on the stock. Powers Advisory Group's Matt Powers tees up the key number to watch. Plus, the Federal Reserve says the biggest U.S. banks all get passing grades for their annual stress test. Citizens JMP's Devin Ryan dives into the results. And, the final read on Q1 GDP could provide insight into a potential reshoring renaissance. Tema ETFs' Maurits Pot explains.

One Rental At A Time
US Economy! Will Deflation Lead to a Depression

One Rental At A Time

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2024 24:34


In this episode, we tackle the pressing question of whether deflation could lead to a depression in the U.S. economy. Joined by Dan Burke, we explore the latest economic data, including GDP reductions and persistent inflation readings. We discuss various economic scenarios, such as stagflation, deflation, and disinflation, and their potential impacts on the market. By analyzing historical patterns and current trends, we provide a comprehensive outlook on what might be ahead for the economy and how to navigate these uncertain times. [0:00] Introduction and Overview - Discussion on the reduction in Q1 GDP and expectations for Q2, highlighting slowing growth and sticky inflation. [1:00] Definition of Stagflation - Explanation of stagflation as low growth combined with high inflation and its current relevance. [2:00] Job Market Trends - Analysis of the unemployment rate and its implications for future Fed actions, with predictions for upcoming job reports. [4:45] Unemployment Rate Impact - Insight into how rising unemployment rates can signal the onset of a recession. [6:05] Inflation vs. Deflation - Debate on the dangers of long-term deflation compared to inflation and its effects on the economy and job market. [8:00] Historical Context of Deflation - Comparison to the Great Depression and why deflation over an extended period can lead to severe economic downturns. [10:05] Importance of Inflation - Argument that moderate inflation is a feature of a growing economy and necessary for long-term stability. [12:00] Cumulative Inflation Analysis - Review of 34 years of cumulative inflation data and its implications for future economic policies. [14:00] Market Reactions to Economic Indicators - How bond prices, the U.S. dollar, and gold prices reflect current economic conditions and predictions for future trends. [20:00] Predictions for Upcoming Jobs Report - Expectations for the upcoming jobs report and its potential impact on the market and Fed policies. Breakpoint Trading: Access Dan Burke's charts and subscribe to his newsletter for in-depth economic analysis. One Rental at a Time: Access resources and join the community for exclusive content and expert sessions. Thank you for tuning into today's episode. If you found our discussion insightful, please rate, follow, share, and review our podcast. Your support helps us continue to provide valuable content. Stay informed, stay proactive, and leverage the insights and resources available to navigate the economic challenges and opportunities ahead. Join our community to get the support and tools you need for successful real estate investing.

Squawk on the Street
Salesforce Plunges, Nasdaq and Blue Chip Blues, Retail Earnings Barrage 5/30/24

Squawk on the Street

Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2024 41:37


Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber led off the show with Salesforce shares tumbling and dragging the Dow sharply lower. The company posted a quarterly revenue miss and issued weaker-than-expected guidance. The anchors reacted to what Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff told Jim Wednesday night on Mad Money. What's next for the stock? On the retail front: Best Buysurges, Foot Locker soars and Kohl's plummets in reaction to earnings news. Also in focus: Q1 GDP growth revised downward, Nasdaq coming off its worst day of May, CNBC reports Nelson Peltz has sold his entire stake in Disney, McDonald's defends its menu prices, Nestle CEO's message on weight-loss drugs. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Worldwide Exchange
Salesforce Plunges, Q1 GDP, and Dumping Disney 05/30/24

Worldwide Exchange

Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2024 42:45


Salesforce is set to shave 280 points from the Dow after posting its first revenue miss since 2006. Wedbush's Dan Ives explains. Plus, the second read on Q1 GDP could be a major market driver today. Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson discusses. And, sources tell CNBC that Nelson Peltz has sold his entire stake in Disney. Albion Financial's Jason Ware dives into what's next.

Business of Tech
U.S. Q1 GDP Growth Slows to 1.6%, CISA's Latest AI Guidelines, Mosyle's MSP Launch

Business of Tech

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2024 10:05


The U.S. experienced a slowdown in Q1 GDP growth, with a rate of 1.6%, signaling a deceleration in the economy at the start of 2024. Despite this, consumer spending displayed resilience, showing solid growth in personal consumption expenditures. In the last quarter, consumer spending increased at an annualized rate of 2.5%, indicating that American consumers are maintaining their spending habits despite high borrowing costs and persistent inflation. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released AI guidelines for critical infrastructure, emphasizing the importance of managing risks and leveraging opportunities associated with artificial intelligence. These guidelines aim to provide operators and owners of critical infrastructure with a framework to effectively govern, measure, and manage the use of AI technology. Three things to know today 00:00 U.S. Q1 GDP Growth Slows to 1.6%, But Consumer Spending Shows Resilience03:42 CISA's Latest AI Guidelines: Managing Risks and Harnessing Opportunities in Critical Infrastructure06:00 Mosyle Launches Fuse MSP for Streamlined Apple Device Management, Offering High Commissions for MSPs   Supported by:  https://www.atakama.com/mspradio/https://coreview.com/msp/   All our Sponsors:   https://businessof.tech/sponsors/   Looking for a link from the stories? The entire script of the show, with links to articles, are posted in each story on https://www.businessof.tech/ Do you want the show on your podcast app or the written versions of the stories? Subscribe to the Business of Tech: https://www.businessof.tech/subscribe/ Support the show on Patreon: https://patreon.com/mspradio/ Want our stuff? Cool Merch? Wear “Why Do We Care?” - Visit https://mspradio.myspreadshop.com Follow us on:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/28908079/YouTube: https://youtube.com/mspradio/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mspradionews/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mspradio/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@businessoftechBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/businessoftech.bsky.social

FireSide
Market Minute: Q1 GDP grew 1.6%—April 29, 2024

FireSide

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2024 3:24


Weekly recap of analysis from the FS Investments research team. To read the full market minute with charts and data, go to https://fsinvestments.com/market-minute

UBS On-Air
Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview

UBS On-Air

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 26, 2024 14:02


As we close out another week (and the month of April), Frank and Barry recap fixed income performance, as well as this week's notable market moving events, notably the Q1 GDP print. We also preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists for the Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Squawk on the Street
Triple Whammy: GDP, Hotter Inflation Gauge, Meta Spark Market Sell-off 4/25/24

Squawk on the Street

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 25, 2024 43:01


Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber covered all of the bases regarding Thursday's stock market sell-off, surge in yields and rate fears. The catalysts: Q1 GDP growth below consensus estimates, the Core PCE Price Index -- a key measure of inflation -- came in hotter than expected, Meta shares plunged on revenue guidance and plans to increase spending on AI. Also in focus: An earnings barrage including Thursday's Dow laggards Caterpillar and IBM, the CEOs of ServiceNow and Southwest Airlines joined the program to discuss their companies' quarterly results and outlook. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer