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In the second of their two-part roundtable, Seth Carpenter and Morgan Stanley's top economists break down the forces influencing growth across different regions.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Michael Gapen, our Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jen Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. And we spent a lot of time talking about monetary policy around the world. Today, let's go back to them, talk about the real side of the economy. It's Friday, January 23rd at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Michael, let me start with you, back on the U.S. And when I think about the U.S. economy, we have to start by talking about the U.S. consumer. Walk us through what investors need to understand about consumer spending in the U.S. What's driving it, what's going to hold it up, and where are the risks? Michael Gapen: I think the primary thing to remember here is that the upper income consumer drives about 40 percent or more of total spending. So, there can be higher inflation that eats into real labor market income growth. There can be inflation dispersion, which hits lower income households more than upper income households. We can have tariffs that get applied to goods and lower- and middle-income households buy goods more than upper income households. But when asset markets continue to appreciate, when home prices hold on to their prior gains, sometimes that doesn't matter in the aggregate statistics because that upper income household keeps spending.I do think that's a lot of what happened in 2025. So, there is a K-shaped economy. I think one of the main risks about the U.S. is that its expansion is narrowly driven. We think that will broaden out in 2026. If we're right, that inflation comes down and we're past, kind of, the peak effect of tariffs, then we think that lower- and middle-income household can have a little more residual spending power. And you might get the consumer operating on two fronts, rather than one. Seth Carpenter: Another part of domestic spending that gets a lot of attention is business investment spending, CapEx spending. First would you agree with that statement that CapEx spending last year was characterized by AI CapEx spending? Second, should we feel confident that that underlying sort of momentum in CapEx spending should continue for this year? And then third, what's it going to take for there to be a broadening out, maybe like what you said about consumers, but a broadening out of investment spending so that it's not just the AI story that's driving CapEx. Michael Gapen: I do agree that the primary, almost exclusive story in 2025 for business spending was AI. So, when you look at residential and non-residential spending, unrelated to AI, that I think did feel the effects of policy uncertainty in a changing environment. what keeps kind of sustainability around business spending? Obviously, it's a multi-year investment story around AI. There's a level versus growth rate argument here where you can have a heck of a lot of CapEx spending. May not always show up in GDP because some of it is intermediate goods, some of it is imported. But that doesn't diminish, I think, the quality of the overall story. What gets business spending to broaden out, I do think is related to whether consumer spending broadens out. Most business spending kind of follows demand with a lag. So, AI is a different story, but there's a cyclical component to business spending. There could be a housing related component, if mortgage rates come down and stimulate at least a little more turnover in the housing market. So, if the recovery does broaden out, we see greater real income growth in low- and middle-income households. The labor market stabilizes. Maybe mortgage rates come down a little bit, then I think you could get carry through momentum to non-AI related business spending. That would look more like a cyclical upswing for the economy. May be a heavy lift, but that's what I think it would take to get there. Seth Carpenter: So, Jens, let me come to you. We talked yesterday about the ECB possibly easing more on disinflation. But when I think of disinflation, I think of a weak economy. And that's maybe not really the case. So, I guess the first question to you would you characterize euro area economic growth as strong, or a little bit more complicated? Jens Eisenschmidt: A little bit more complicated. And that's always the right answer for an economist – I think it depends. Well, it is strong in some quarters. And these quarters will change from where it has been in the past.So concretely, we think the German economy has most potential to catch up and actually accelerate, and that's due to fiscal stimulus mainly. While we have other quarters, the French and the Italian one, which will be below potential and so weak – each of them for their own reason. And then we have the Spanish economy, which performs exceptionally and is really strong, but it's only a small part of the euro area economy. If we had everything together, I think the outlook is an economy that's accelerating mildly and only towards the end of our projection horizon, which is [20]27. So, in say two years, hits growth rates that are above potential. Here we are really talking about quarterly increments above 0.3. So, we are currently between 0.1 and 0.2. So, you sort of get the picture of a mildly accelerating economy that goes from 0.15 to 0.035 say in the span of two years. Seth Carpenter: One of the key narratives in markets is about fiscal policy in Germany, potentially driving growth. I know in equity markets it's been a key investing theme. So how excited should people be about the possibility of fiscal policy in Germany driving a resilient European economy? Jens Eisenschmidt: Pretty excited, I would say, in a sense that the positioning of the German government for its economy is actually exceptional in terms of the amount of fiscal space that exists and that has been made available. It's just that, of course, the connection of that sort of abstract excitement that we economists have to what actually happens in markets is sometimes a little bit loose; in the sense that equity [markets would like to see everything coming online tomorrow, and that's going to be a more drawn-out process. So, to my point before, it will take some time. We do have implementation lags. We do have lags in say, for instance, on defense procurement. There is maybe not as much capacity in the economy to deliver into everything. But the direction of travel is clear and up. So, from that perspective, I have no doubts that the future is better for the German economy over the medium term for all the reasons mentioned, but it won't be immediate. And we have just seen in recent headlines, Germany is the most trade exposed European economy. If we get more friction in global trade, that's not great. So, you could even have short term, more negative news on GDP than positive ones. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to turn to you. Yesterday when we talked about Asia, we focused on Japan. But, of course, when it comes to the real side of the economy, the big mover in Asia is China.So, let's talk a little bit about how you see China evolving. What the key themes are for China. Last year in particular, we talked a lot about the deflationary cycle in China and how it was protracted. It wasn't going away. That policy was not sufficient to drive a huge surge in demand to push things away. Are we in the same place for China in 2026? What kind of growth should we expect and what sort of policy reactions should we be expecting from China? Chetan Ahya: Well, I think the macro backdrop for China we think will still be challenging in 2026. But at the same time, we expect the micro positives to continue. Now on the macro backdrop, when I say it's going to remain challenging because the number one issue that we are focused on from a macro perspective in China is deflation. Now we do expect some easing of deflationary pressures, but [the] economy will still stay in deflation in 2026. And on the micro front what we've seen is that China is emerging from a situation where it is making inroads into advanced manufacturing, and that's enabling it to increase market share in global goods exports. And it's also one of the reasons why when you see the numbers coming out from China on exports, they seem to be outperforming. Even just the latest month number as we saw, China's exports were surprising on the upside relative to market expectations. And that's the micro story – that you'll see China continuing to gain market share in global goods export. And that supports the corporate micro positive story. Seth Carpenter: We know collectively that export is a key part of China's economy. The productive capacity, as you point out, important for China. When you think about exports from China, the currency has to come in. And recently the renminbi has been appreciating. Lots of questions from clients here or there. How important is the renminbi in reflating or rebalancing the China economy? Can you walk us through a little bit some of these considerations about the role that the currency is playing now and over the next few quarters for China and its economic outlook. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, that's right, Seth. Actually, I've been getting a number of clients calling me and asking whether PBOC is going to allow a significant appreciation in RNB. We've seen it appreciate quite a lot in the last few days. And then whether this will mean China's economy will rebalance faster towards consumption. Look, on the first point, we don't think PBOC will allow a significant currency appreciation because, as I just mentioned earlier, the deflation problem is still there. It's not gone. While we see reduced deflationary pressures, as long as the economy is in deflation, it'll be very difficult for PBOC to allow significant currency appreciation. And what we are also watching on RMB is to see what is happening to the trade weighted RMB. The RMB basket, if you were to call it. That interestingly has been in a stable range since 2016, and we don't think that changes. We've learned from Japan's experience in the nineties that if you have deflation problem, you shouldn't be taking up currency appreciation. And we think PBOC pretty much follows that rule book. On the rebalancing part, look, I think when you have deflation and if currency appreciation is going to add to deflation pressures, that will mean corporate sector revenue suffers. They will actually be cutting wage growth and therefore that has a negative impact on consumption. And so, in our view, instead of helping rebalancing currency appreciation with China's current macro backdrop, we'll actually be making rebalancing more difficult. Seth Carpenter: And of course, we're used to China being a key driver of the economy, not just in Asia, but around the world. But if we think about then broadening out from China, what should we be expecting in terms of growth for the other economies in Asia? Chetan Ahya: For the other economies in the region, I think the most important driver will be what happens to exports more broadly. In 2025, Asia did benefit from better tech exports, but because of tariffs and also what was happening in the U.S. in terms of its own domestic demand, we'd seen that there was significant weakness in non-tech exports. So, from an outlook perspective in 2026, we think that that non-tech export story turns around and that will help the recovery in the region to broaden out from it just being tech exports to non-tech exports, to improvement in CapEx, job growth and consumption. So, I think that the whole region is going to see the benefit from this turnaround. But particularly the non-China part of the region will be seeing a meaningful improvement in their export growth, real GDP growth and normal GDP growth in 2026. Seth Carpenter: I'm getting ready to wrap things up. But before I do, I'm going to ask each of the three of you, one last rapid-fire question. Michael, I'm going to start with you. AI is on everyone's lips. If we were to see a rapid adoption of AI technology across all the economies. What would it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that would mean a substantial uptick in productivity growth. Maybe closer to 3 percent like we saw in the tech boom in the nineties. So faster real growth. But probably still disinflation. You can argue the Fed could even lower rates in that environment. It may take them a while to figure it out [be]cause they'd be balancing incoming data that shows a lot of strong growth. But probably further evidence that inflation's coming down. So, if it's supply side driven, then I think you could still probably get some rate cuts out of the Fed to normalize policy as inflation comes down. But I'd be thinking those cuts could even come much later. Seth Carpenter: Okay, Jens to you, a lot of discussion in the news about possible additional tariffs from the U.S. on Europe in some of the negotiations. Suppose some of the announcements, 10 percent tariffs rising to 25 percent tariffs later. Suppose those were actually put in place. What does that mean for European growth? Jens Eisenschmidt: So, I would say 10 percent additional tariffs, we have a framework for that. Pointing to drag on GDP growth somewhere between 30 and 60 basis points. So roughly half of what we think 2026 will bring in growth. Now, for sure the answer is additional tariffs are not great for growth. Big question mark here is though whether we get any retaliation from the European side, which we think this time around if we get additional tariffs from the U.S. side is more likely. And that would just increase the downside risk for Europe here from that additional round of trade or tariff uncertainty. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to end up with you. When we think about China, when we think about policy, what do you think it would take for there to be a fundamental shift in policy out of Beijing to get a real full blown, demand driven fiscal stimulus? Or is that just not in the cards whatsoever? Chetan Ahya: Well, in our base case, we don't think that's likely to happen in our forecast horizon. But if we do get a big social stability challenge emerging in China, then we could get that big pivot from [a] policy response perspective, where policy makers move towards consumption. And our recommendation there is to boost social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers, which could be taken up if you get that social stability risk event materializing. Seth Carpenter: Mike, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And for the listener, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Here we go again – Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs DAVOS – Elitists are Meeting Suicide Coaches? Hedge funds – finally a good year! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Here we go again - Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs - DAVOS - Elitists are Meeting - Suicide Coaches? - Hedge funds - finally a good year! Markets - Silver and Gold - ATH - Selling off after Greenland threat - Netflix - Saga continues Davos - 2026 - Economic Confab that often brings out the elite (elitists) - Many watch for their key points and do the opposite - Trump going, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi not - Why is Zelensky going? - Kushner, Bessent, Little Marco will be attending with Trump - Did you know - Larry Fink is the interim Co-Chair. - The CEOs that you would expect that love the limelight ) (Jensen, Nadella etc) World Economic Forum Report (Davos) - Due out Wednesday - expected to show that geopolitical confrontation is the top concern this year - Rising Inflation - Economic Downturn - Asset Bubbles - High debt burdens - Any of those could be any year and anyone in the world that is breathing could have made that list WEF List NEXT - Greenland - Sell or Else! - Trump promises 100% that he will impose tariffs and follow through - The tariffs will start at 10% on Feb. 1 and shoot up to 25% on June 1, Trump said. - Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland - Supposedly in response to EU allies moving troops into Greenland - Greenland protests with - Make America Go Away hats - 200% tariff threatened in champagne and wines (Mad at Macron) Oh - and Gaza - The new Board of Peace - Trump names himself 'Board of Peace' chair under October plan - Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, former British prime minister Tony Blair and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. - Supposedly Putin has said he was also invited to be on the board. - Purpose? Officially, the Board is mandated to “promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict... Saks - bankrupt - Chapter 11 - Problems really got worse after they agreed to purchase Needless Markup (aka Neiman Marcus) - Amazon filed an objection to Saks Global's bankruptcy financing plan on the grounds it could harm creditors and push the tech company further down the repayment pecking order. - Amazon The tech company invested $475 million into Saks' acquisition of Neiman Marcus in December 2024,  a stake it said is now effectively “worthless.” - Amazon threatened more “drastic remedies” if Saks doesn't heed its concerns, including the appointment of an examiner or a trustee. - Amazon initially invested because it thought Saks would start selling its products on Amazon's website and the tech company would offer technology and logistics expertise.| - Amazon's attorneys: “Saks continuously failed to meet its budgets, burned through hundreds of millions of dollars in less than a year, and ran up additional hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid invoices owed to its retail partners.” Suicide Coaches - “This year, you really saw something pretty horrific, which is these AI models became suicide coaches,” Benioff told CNBC's Sarah Eisen on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum's flagship conference in Davos, Switzerland. - In 2018, Benioff said social media should be treated like a health issue, and said the platforms should be regulated like cigarettes: “They're addictive, they're not good for you.” - “Bad things were happening all over the world because social media was fully unregulated,” he said Tuesday, “and now you're kind of seeing that play out again with artificial intelligence.” China - China 2025 new yuan loans 16.27 trln yuan, lowest since 2018 - Dec new yuan loans beat forecast - PBOC announces targeted monetary policy easing - "From the asset side, amid the property market adjustment, the private sector including households and firms showed insufficient willingness to add leverage, while government bond issuance was ramped up to stabilize leverage and the economy." - Now what is happening is that $ that used to go into real estate is heading for stocks/risk assets. - Chinese authorities tightened rules on margin financing, signaling unease over the pace of a rally. - - Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold. - - - Regulators made the move to rein in potential froth in financial markets, with a fund manager saying it sends a clear signal that they want a slow bull market, not an overheated one. --- Under the new rule, investors must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from the previous 80% threshold, according to a Shenzhen Stock Exchange statement. The move, which applies to Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing bourses, underscores regulators' efforts to rein in potential froth in financial markets. More China - China's population of 1.4 billion continued to shrink, marking the fourth straight year of decrease, new government statistics show. The total population in 2025 stood at 1.404 billion, which was 3 million less than the previous year. - After the one-child policy - now government is pushing or more births - Measured another way, the birth rate in 2025 — 5.63 per 1,000 people — is the lowest on record since 1949 - Government tactics range from cash subsidies to taxing condoms to eliminating a tax on matchmakers and day care centers. Bank Earnings - Generally pretty good! - Yield curve is helping in a big way - steepening - Goldman beats, BAC beast Morgan Stanley bets etc. etc. - Goldman: The company said profit jumped 12% from a year earlier to $4.62 billion, or $14.01 per share, on gains across its capital markets businesses. - Morgan Stanley: Last Thursday reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations on the back of strong revenue from wealth management. Fed Chair - Over the weekend, Hassett thinks Trump is right not to have him in that position (What a sap! Good he is not in running anymore) - Rick Reider and Warsh are front-runners - Who ever kisses the most ass should win - Warsh would actually be a good pick - experience and smart guy that is level headed - Meanwhile - all of a sudden Trump says he is not looking to fire Powell (maybe h wants him to resign) Netflix/Warner Brothers Update - Netflix now plans to pay $27.75 per WBD share entirely in cash to acquire WBD's streaming platform HBO Max and the Warner Bros. film studio. - In reaction tot he hostile takeover bid from Paramount/Skydance - The last offer was unanimously approved by the BOD - NFLX Earnings ..... --- Earnings per share: 56 cents vs. 55 cents, estimated ------Revenue: $12.05 billion vs $11.97 billion, estimated - Stock down AH Inflation (Did we talk about this?) - Even though we are told there is little inflation... - Consumer Price Index increases 0.3% in December - Food, rents were the main drivers of consumer inflation - Underlying inflation rises a moderate 0.2% - Food prices surged 0.7% Planes! - Boeing outsold Airbus last year - First time since 2018 - BA stock made an ATH last week Bond Vigilantes - Danish pension operator AkademikerPension said it is exiting U.S. Treasurys over finance concerns tied to America's budget shortfall. - The move comes amid increasing tensions with the U.S. over Greenland as President Donald Trump pushes for control of the island. - AkademikerPension said it plans to have closed its position of around $100 million in U.S. Treasurys by the end of the month. - 10 YR yields moved up again to 4.3% - What if.....??? (Mutual assured destruction?) Hedgies - Hedge fund investors posted gains of about 12.6% last year, the best returns since 2009, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. - Funds run by industry giants such as D.E. Shaw & Co. and Millennium Management posted double-digit returns, with Bridgewater Associates' Pure Alpha II fund scoring a 34% gain. - Hedge funds secured net inflows of $71 billion during the first three quarters of last year, a major reversal after a decade of outflows, with the industry's giants being among the major beneficiaries.     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

China's central bank says it has completed the financial preparations for the start of island-wide special customs operations at the Hainan Free Trade Port on Thursday.

Stablecoin neo giá theo đồng đô la là một vũ khí chiến lược mới của Washington. Với Genius Act, chính quyền Trump trang bị cho nước Mỹ thêm một công cụ để mở rộng ảnh hưởng của đồng đô la. Tiền ảo Cryptocurrency là một mặt trận mới trong cuộc tranh giành ảnh hưởng giữa Hoa Kỳ và Trung Quốc. Chính sách kinh tế trong nhiệm kỳ hai của tổng thống Hoa Kỳ Donald Trump và những cuộc xung đột quân sự trên thế giới, sự đối đầu giữa hai siêu cường kinh tế toàn cầu và mức nợ công khổng lồ của Mỹ từng bước làm lung lay hệ thống tiền tệ quốc tế, vốn đã được đình hình từ sau Đệ Nhị Thế Chiến. Lợi thế áp đảo của đồng đô la với phần còn lại trên thế giới có khuynh hướng bị nhân dân tệ của Trung Quốc lấn át. Để làm chủ lại tình hình, Washington đặt cược vào công nghệ số và tiền digital Cryptocurrency.  Xa lánh đô la ?  Tháng 4/2025, tổng thống Donald Trump thông báo áp dụng chính sách « thuế đối ứng » với toàn cầu. Lập tức các chỉ số chứng khoán lao dốc. Cùng lúc hai chủ nợ lớn của Mỹ là Nhật Bản và Trung Quốc mạnh tay bán ra một số công trái phiếu của Hoa Kỳ mà Tokyo và Bắc Kinh đang nắm giữ. Bên cạnh đó là những tuyên bố của chủ nhân Nhà Trắng thách thức tính độc lập của Ngân Hàng Trung Ương và mức nợ khổng lồ của chính quyền liên bang khiến đồng đô la mất giá. Ba tháng sau, tổng thống Trump ban hành sắc lệnh Genius Act thiết lập một khung pháp lý toàn diện cho các loại tiền mã hóa, mà tỷ giá được gắn chặt vào với đồng đô la. Đà phát triển của các công nghệ kỹ thuật số đang làm thay đổi toàn cảnh tài chính tại Hoa Kỳ. Donald Trump từ trước khi ra tranh cử nhiệm kỳ thứ hai, ông và gia đình đã phát hành một đơn vị tiền tệ ảo cá nhân. Tại Nhà Trắng, ông chủ địa ốc New York này muốn biến nước Mỹ thành « quê hương của tiền điện tử », đặc biệt là của tiền ảo Stablecoin và cũng để sử dụng công cụ này như một vũ khí ngoại giao và địa chính trị. Đâu là những lợi thế và rủi ro của Cryptocurrency ? Mỹ đang tính toán những gì và đây phải chăng là mặt trận mới trong cuộc đọ sức với Trung Quốc ? Trên đài phát thanh Pháp France Culture hôm 15/11/2025, chuyên gia về tiền tệ Olivier Blanchard, nguyên kinh tế trưởng Quỹ Tiền Tệ Quốc Tế IMF cho rằng chính sách kinh tế, các đòn thuế quan của tổng thống Trump khiến cộng đồng quốc tế có khuynh hướng giữ khoảng cách với đô la Mỹ :  « Từ khi Trump trở lại cầm quyến, mọi người bắt đầu tự hỏi, mua công trái phiếu kỳ hạn 10 hay 20 năm do kho bạc Mỹ phát hành có còn là điều hợp lý và an toàn nữa hay không. Mặt khác, vấn đề là nếu không đầu tư vào Mỹ, vào công trái phiếu của Hoa Kỳ, thì giới tài chính có nhiều lựa chọn nào hay không ? Nhìn sang thị trường châu Âu, tiềm năng của cả khối này gộp lại có vẻ cũng có triển vọng. Nhưng hiện tại Đức, Pháp đơn phương phát hành công trái phiếu. Riêng Eurobond thì vẫn còn ở quy mô rất hạn hẹp. Cụ thể là vào lúc thị trường công trái phiếu của Mỹ là 30.000 tỷ đô la thì khối Euro mới chỉ phát hành 1.000 tỷ euro công trái phiếu, tức là thị trường châu Âu chỉ bằng 1 phần 30 so với của Hoa Kỳ. Do vậy trước mắt, tôi cho rằng đô la vẫn có giá trị ổn định cao và vẫn là một đơn vị dự trữ an toàn ». Giới hạn từ việc chính trị hóa đồng đô la Có điều ngoài đồng đô la ra thì cũng không một đơn vị tiền tệ nào đủ sức cạnh tranh với đồng tiền của Mỹ. Đó là lý do Washington từ trước tới nay chưa bao giờ ngần ngại khai thác các lợi thế của đô la vì mục tiêu địa chính trị. Kinh tế gia Hélène Rey, trường quản trị kinh doanh London Business School trả lời đài France Culture :   « Do đô la là một đồng tiền được sử dụng rất rộng rãi trong các giao dịch quốc tế, cho nên khi Hoa Kỳ dùng đô la như một vũ khí vì những mục tiêu địa chính trị - như việc cắt Nga khỏi hệ thống giao dịch của các ngân hàng quốc tế SWIFT, do tầm quan trọng của đồng đô la, đồng tiền của Mỹ trở thành một vũ khí cực kỳ mạnh. Chính ở đây ta thấy điểm giao thoa giữa quyền lực, quan hệ quốc tế và tài chính. Và bởi vì vũ khí này quá mạnh, cho nên một số quốc gia – như Trung Quốc và trước đó là Nga, đã cố gắng thoát khỏi hệ thống tiền tệ truyền thống này để xây dựng những hệ thống song song ». Mỹ cũng dùng đòn chia để trị Cũng trong khuôn khổ chương trình của đài France Culture, Eric Monnet giáo sư trường Paris School of Economics (PSE) nhấn mạnh : Washington đang kỳ vọng vào tiền mã hóa để giành lại sân chơi đang bị Trung Quốc gặm nhấm :  « Ngày càng có ít quốc gia chấp nhận đồng đô la như một đồng tiền sử dụng trên thực tế. Chính điều đó có lẽ khiến Hoa Kỳ lo ngại. Washington cảm thấy ảnh hưởng của đô la đang bị thu hẹp lại và nhất là nhiều quốc gia dưới áp lực của Bắc Kinh muốn khẳng định họ tự chủ trên phương diện tiền tệ, để bớt phải phụ thuộc vào đồng tiền của Mỹ. Một lần nữa trên hành trình đi tìm ‘sự độc lập' này, Trung Quốc đã chủ động và lại còn chứng tỏ tính ưu việt của mình. Bắc Kinh có sức thuyết phục để nhiều quốc gia trên thế giới tin tưởng hơn vào Trung Quốc, tin tưởng có thể phát triển mà không  phụ thuộc vào Hoa Kỳ. Chính vì vậy mà Washington muốn giành lại thế thượng phong, giành lại ảnh hưởng cho đơn vị tiền tệ của Hoa Kỳ và đã có những cử chỉ thân thiện với Achentina hay El Salvador, những nước có lập trường thân Mỹ. Chúng ta biết tính cách của Donald Trump ông chỉ muốn đàm phán song phương để áp đặt đối phương phải hành động theo các quy tắc do ông áp đặt ». Nguy cơ khủng hoảng tài chính ngân hàng Về câu hỏi sử dụng các loại tiền mã hóa, có nguy hiểm hay không, Olivier Blanchard đưa ra hai yếu tố để trả lời. « Nhìn từ góc độ của các ngân hàng, tiền ảo thực sự là một thảm họa. Hai mối nguy hiểm lớn liên quan đến Stablecoin đặt ra là thứ nhất nếu các thân chủ ồ ạt dùng tiền ảo này, thì họ sẽ rút tiền ủy thác khỏi các ngân hàng, tức là các ngân hàng không còn vốn để hoạt động, không thể cấp tín dụng, không thể sinh lời … Đe dọa thứ hai, là khi có Stablecoin trong tay, người ta dễ mang đi đầu tư ở những nơi khác để kiếm lãi. Hiện đã mọc lên rất nhiều những trang quảng cáo rất ‘hời', hứa hẹn những mức lãi rất cao. Nhưng bỏ tiền vào đó có an toàn hay không ? Bởi vì những điểm đến đầu tư đó, phần lớn không có ai quản lý. Các hoạt động tài chính đó hoàn toàn nằm ngoài các khuôn khổ quản lý của các giới chức có thẩm quyền. Thành thử người ta dễ bị lừa, dễ mất tiền. Từ đó nảy sinh mầm móng của một cuộc khủng hoảng và đó cũng là thêm một rủi ro nghiêm trọng đe dọa toàn bộ hệ thống tài chính, ngân hàng ». Xung đột lợi ích cá nhân và nghi ngờ tham nhũng Tuy nhiên trong trường hợp của đạo luật đầu tiên tại nước Mỹ về Cryptocurrency được tổng thống Trump ban hành, giáo sư Eric Monnet nêu bật hai nghi vấn liên quan đến đạo luật Genius Act :  « Trump quyết liệt thúc đẩy đạo luật Genius Act, đặt nền tảng pháp lý cho các hoạt động trong lĩnh vực Cryptocurrency. Nhưng ở đây có vấn đề xung đột lợi ích. Một là người ta cho rằng tổng thống Trump đã tạo ra một khung pháp lý vì lợi ích cá nhân và của gia đình ông. Thứ hai, qua các tiết lộ trên báo chí - là điểm mà hiện nay nhiều người thậm chí cho rằng đó là hành vi mang tính chất tham nhũng. Thí dụ như trường hợp đang được bàn luận nhiều nhất hiện tại là việc một quỹ đặc biệt thuộc chính phủ Các Tiểu Vương Quốc Ả Rập Thống Nhất đã mua lại 2 tỷ đô la tiền điện tử do chính tổng thống Hoa Kỳ Donald Trump và gia đình ông phát hành. Lạ thay là chỉ vài ngày sau đó, Washington đã dỡ bỏ một lệnh cấm xuất khẩu trước đây liên quan đến các dòng chip mà tập đoàn Nvidia sản xuất, đó là loại bỏ điện tử thiết hiếu trong lĩnh vực công nghệ trí tuệ nhân tạo. Hoa Kỳ từng viện lý do ‘an ninh quốc gia' cấm xuất khẩu loại chip này sang Các Tiểu Vương Quốc Ả Rập Thống Nhất nhưng sau khi Abou Dabi mua vào 2 tỷ đô la tiền ảo do tổng thống Mỹ và gia đình ông Trump phát hành thì vương quốc Trung Đông này lại được nhập khẩu chip của Nvidia. Ngoài ra Donald Trump đã nhiều lần nhấn mạnh rằng đầu tư và mua vào đồng tiền ảo của gia đình Trump là một hành động chứng minh cho lòng yêu nước ».    Cơ hội trốn thuế và phát triển các hoạt động phi pháp Hélène Rey đưa hai nguy cơ khác khi sử dụng các loại tiền crypto. Mối nguy hiểm thứ nhất mang tính trừu tượng với đa số công luận, là khi dùng tiền ảo, stable coin mà tỷ giá được gắn chặt vào đồng đô, thì một nền kinh tế đang trỗi dậy khó mà tự động điều chỉnh chính sách tiền tệ của mình. Nhưng hiểm họa thứ nhì dễ hiểu hơn như Hélène Rey giải thích : « Đây chính là công cụ để trốn thuế, để lẩn tránh mọi hình thức kiểm soát vốn, mọi quy luật tài chính, tiền tệ. Hệ quả kèm theo là biến tiền ảo stablecoin thành một công cụ phổ biến sử dụng trong các loại giao dịch phi pháp, trong các đường dây dark web. Các hoạt động phi pháp kiểu này được thuận lợi và càng dễ phát triển hơn và tôi nghĩ điều đó sẽ đem lại nhiều hệ quả đối với kinh tế vĩ mô ».  Tham vọng của Bắc Kinh Riêng trong trường hợp của Trung Quốc, Hélene Rey gắn liền việc Bắc Kinh phát triển đồng tiền ảo với mục đích quốc tế hóa đồng nhân dân tệ, để bớt phụ thuộc vào đô la Mỹ. Từ 2014 Ngân hàng trung ương Trung Quốc đã phát triển đồng nhân dân tệ digital : « Ngân hàng Nhân dân Trung Quốc (PBoC) cũng là ngân hàng trung ương đầu tiên triển khai một dạng tiền kỹ thuật số của ngân hàng trung ương (CBDC). Tuy nhiên họ không thật sự thành công vì bị chính các đồng tiền ảo do các tập đoàn như Tencent và Alibaba cạnh tranh. Họ cũng không cạnh tranh lại với những ứng dụng như tức Alipay và WeChat Pay, vốn đã rất phổ biến và được dân Trung Quốc sử dụng rộng rãi từ lâu nay. Điều đó không cấm cản Ngân Hàng Trung Ương Trung Quốc giành lại quyền kiểm soát và đã cho phát hành đồng nhân dân tệ kỹ thuật số. Có lẽ định chế này và giới lãnh đạo ở Bắc Kinh đang đặt cược vào công nghệ để thúc đẩy hơn nữa việc quốc tế hóa đồng nhân dân tệ ». Giành lại hào quang sợ bị đánh mất  Eric Monnet cũng đồng quan điểm. Ông cho rằng Washington đang đẩy mạnh việc phát triển tiền crypto trước hết là để giành lại ảnh hưởng đang bị mai một của đô la, và nhất là muốn tránh để bị Trung Quốc lấn sân và cũng được hưởng « những lợi thế vô cùng to lớn » nếu như nhân dân tệ trở thành một đơn vị tiền tệ quốc tế, một đơn vị dự trữ an toàn. « Chiến lược hiện nay của Bắc Kinh là làm thế nào để ngày càng nhiều quốc gia sử dụng đồng nhân dân tệ trong các giao dịch thương mại. Ngân hàng Trung ương Trung Quốc chủ trương cấp tín dụng cho các quốc gia khác và một khi họ vay được tiền của Trung Quốc thì sẽ nhập khẩu hàng hóa từ Trung Quốc, thanh toán bằng nhân dân tệ.  Vấn đề đặt ra là từ trước tới nay, Bắc Kinh áp dụng chiến lược này với những quốc gia chịu ảnh hưởng của Trung Quốc về mặt địa chính trị địa chính trị của mình, như với Bắc Triều Tiên, Mông Cổ hay gần đây hơn là với Nga. Đó cũng là những quốc gia ít hoặc gần như không dùng đô la. Nhưng khi Bắc Kinh áp dụng chính sách này với những đối tác ngoài vùng ảnh hưởng, như là với Brazil hay Chilê … thì những quốc gia liên quan họ cần được bảo đảm rằng nếu như có trục trặc, dự trữ tiền tệ họ có trong tay vẫn có thể được chuyển sang thành những đơn vị tiền tệ khác. Đó là lợi ích khi sử dụng tiền ảo như stable coin. Hơn nữa đây cũng là lý do vì sao mà Trung Quốc vẫn luôn nắm giữ rất nhiều đô la Mỹ ».

Market news for December 1, 2025: Asian markets mixed as traders eye US data ahead of Fed decision; Japanese Yen rises as Bank of Japan signals rate hike coming up; Hong Kong stablecoin stocks slump after PBOC vows cryptocurrency crackdown; Manulife US Reit proposes strategic pivot to retail, living, industrial sectors. Synopsis: Market Focus Daily is a closing bell roundup by The Business Times that looks at the day’s market movements and news from Singapore and the region. Written and hosted by: Emily Liu (emilyliu@sph.com.sg) Produced and edited by: Chai Pei Chieh & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media --- Follow Market Focus Daily and rate us on: Channel: bt.sg/btmktfocus Amazon: bt.sg/mfam Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/mfap Spotify: bt.sg/mfsp YouTube Music: bt.sg/mfyt Website: bt.sg/mktfocus Feedback to: btpodcasts@sph.com.sg Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks BT Correspondents at: bt.sg/btcobt BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/podcasts BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this week's Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire details China consolidating its position as the global physical hub, leaving Western gold and silver markets fractured and increasingly irrelevant as physical bullion flows into Beijing-aligned channels.The London wholesaler comments on market backwardations and forced sell-downs as silver emerges as a critical pressure point in global bullion flows, with strong physical demand from major institutions steadily pushing prices higher.Send your questions to Andy here: https://www.speakpipe.com/LFTVTimestamps:00:00 Start02:48 Western Gold Cracks: Why Traders Are Fleeing to BRICS Exchanges05:30 The COMEX Trap: Paper Gold vs Real Physical Demand10:36 $8,000 Gold and $80 Silver? The Supply Shock Nobody Talks About15:37 How Big Buyers Exploit Western Mispricing22:04  Physically underpinned gold and silver ETFs force a new higher rally point29:33  PBOC consolidates control over global physical gold markets.36:25  Silver shortages and backwardations signal a major rally incoming40:28  Fed cannot source enough silver, highlighting a supply crisisSign up for Kinesis on desktop:https://kinesis.money/kinesis-precious-metals/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=lftv_251Download the Kinesis Mobile app - available App Store and Google Play:Apple: https://kms.kinesis.money/signupGoogle: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.kinesis.kinesisappAlso, don't forget to check out our social channels where you can stay up to date with all the latest news and developments from the team.X: https://twitter.com/KinesisMonetaryFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/kinesismoney/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kinesismoney/Telegram: https://t.me/kinesismoneyTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kinesismoneyThe opinions expressed in this video by Andrew Maguire and any guest are solely their own and do not reflect the official policy, position, or views of Kinesis. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or any other type of professional advice.Viewers are encouraged to seek independent financial advice tailored to their individual circumstances before making any decisions related to the gold market or other investments. Kinesis does not accept any responsibility or liability for actions taken based on the content of this video.

APAC stocks were higher amid tailwinds from recent trade-related rhetoric, including US President Trump's comments on Friday that 100% tariffs are not sustainable and that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi.Nikkei 225 surged to a fresh all-time high above the 49,000 level amid a reignition of the Takaichi trade with the LDP leader on track to become Japan's first female PM following an agreement to form a coalition with Japan's Innovation Party.In China, PBoC maintained LPRs as expected, whilst Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales either matched or topped forecasts, and the CPC Central Committee is also holding a four-day closed-door meeting through to Thursday.US President Trump said on Friday that they are getting along with China, and it looks like the meeting with China will go forward, while he could move the November 1st deadline up if he wanted. Trump added that they will make a deal that will be good for both countries and thinks they will be in a strong position in trade talks with China.Israel's Channel 12 reported that Israel was attacking Gaza, while the Israeli military said Hamas carried out multiple attacks against Israeli forces beyond the ‘yellow line', violating the ceasefire; both sides later said they will adhere to the ceasefire once again.S&P lowered France to 'A+' from 'AA-'; Outlook Stable, while it cited heightened risks to budgetary consolidation; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.8% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices (Sep), Canadian Producer Prices (Sep), US Leading Index (Sep), New Zealand Trade (Sep), CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Speakers including ECB's Schnabel & RBA's Jones, Supply from EU & Italy, Earnings from Sandvik, Zions Bancorp & Cleveland Cliffs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In this podcast we discuss US-Chine trade war escalation, state of China's economy and Japanification, PBoC's next move, and much more.   Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

Two items on the agenda today.First, my interview with Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster for Triggernometry has been released. Here it is on YouTube, Spotify and Apple PodcastsSecond, using a different methodology to that which I used in Secret History of Gold (have you read it yet?), I am going to estimate China's gold reserves.I was planning to take a look at top silver pick, Sierra Madre Gold and Silver (TSX-V:SM) today, after my meeting with CEO Alex Langer last week, but I will leave that till tomorrow now, meaning you get an extra piece this week you lucky things.China's Hidden Gold Empire: How Much Does Beijing Really Hold?I regard this as one of the most important subjects in geo-politics, which is why I repeatedly come back to it.It doesn't matter if you issue the global reserve currency, if you don't make anything you are in the doo-doo, and this is something the Trump administration is attempting to address with tariffs, a weaker dollar and, more subtly, the managed decline of the US dollar as global reserve currency. It's all part of Triffin's Dilemma. As a result, neutral gold's role as global reserve asset is re-surging.History's “golden” rule will soon apply again: he who has the gold makes the rules. (If you are interested in the origins of the phrase by the way, it's all here).This different methodology only came to me overnight, and I don't know what the conclusion will be yet, though I suspect it will arrive at a figure which is more conservative than what I have argued previously. Here we go.Here, for context, are world central bank holdings, as officially stated.My argument has long been that China has considerably more than the 2,300 tonnes it says it does.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), by the way, is the main custodian, but other state entities, such as China Investment Corporation (the sovereign wealth fund), State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the army also own gold.Remember China is the world's largest importer of gold, the largest consumer and the largest producer. it's been that since 2007 when it overtook South Africa.I am going to use round numbers, as they are more digestible, and when there is a spread - eg 500-1,000 tonnes, take the middle number, ie 750 tonnes.It is impossible to know just how much gold China has imported, because so many transactions are private, particularly those which go through London, Switzerland or Dubai. The Hong Kong gold is better disclosed.However, most - though not all - of the gold which goes to China goes through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). SGE withdrawals from 2007 to mid 2025 total 29,500-30,000 tonnes, based on aggregated data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and World Gold Council (WGC) reports.However, the SGE is just a flow metric. It does not represent total consumption. Some of that gold which passes through will have been double counted, either as a result of re-selling and re-cycling, or because of China's booming money-laundering business and the circular trade with Hong Kong. Estimates for double-counting range from 10% (World Gold Council) to 30% (analyst Koos Jansen). Let's take the middle 20% figure - 6,000 tonnes - and that leaves us with 23,250 tonnes of SGE gold.Undisclosed goldThe PBOC likes 400oz bars, as traded in London, and these do not trade on the SGE, which uses smaller kilo bars, 3kg or 12.5kg bars. 400oz is about 12.4kg by the way. So a lot of those London imports will not go through the SGE, and so are in addition to the numbers above.Analysts mostly concur that, while reported imports via London, Switzerland and Dubai total 3,500-4,500 tonnes, another 2,000-3,000 tonnes (mostly post-2009, accelerating since 2022) have gone unreported.2,500 tonnes is the middle figure, then. Add that to the 23,250 tonnes of SGE and our total is now 25,750 tonnes.If you live in a Third World country, such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Chinese gold productionAround 55% of Chinese gold production is state owned, and this century China has mined roughly 7,500 tonnes.70-80% of Chinese production is sold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) - so we have already counted that - the other 20-30% goes to the state.Using estimates from the mid-range. 25% of those 7,500 tonnes, therefore - 1,875 tonnes - has gone to the state. The rest has been sold through the SGE.Add 1,875 tonnes to the total and we are at 27,625 tonnes.By the way, I have not included overseas Chinese gold production, of which there is a lot. Some of this product is sold on international markets and never actually reaches China. But what does reach China gets sold through the SGE and so has already been counted.Finally, we have to add in gold held in China, whether as bullion or jewellery, prior to 2000. The World Gold Council estimates a figure of 2,500 tonnes in privately-held jewellery. Added to domestic mining and official reserves, you get a figure of around 4,000 tonnes.This brings our grand total to 31,625 tonnes of gold in China.Putting it all togetherPreviously, I have argued that 50% of that gold would go to the state. That would mean roughly 16,000 tonnes. Almost twice as much as the US's reported 8,100 tonnes! When audit?My thinking has changed.Let me propose another methodology. And this has come as a result of my conversation with Konstantin (see above).Annual gold demand last year was roughly:* Jewellery 47%* Investment 25%* Central Bank 23%* Industry 6%This obviously varies from year to year, with investment and central bank demand being the big variables. But if we assume Chinese demand roughly matches global demand (this is an easy argument to challenge), that would mean that of the 31,625 tonnes:* 14,864 is now jewellery* 7,910 is now bullion held by investors* 1,900 tonnes went into manufacturingAnd, drum roll for the Big KahunaThe Chinese government has 7,294 tonnes.Obviously, it's easy to make the case that since China is such a big manufacturer, Chinese industrial demand is likely to be higher than 6%. It's also easy to make the case that, because the Chinese like gold so much, and the state has been encouraging them to invest since 2007, that both Chinese jewellery and investment demand is higher than 47% and 25% respectively.It's also easy to make the case that, because of de-dollarisation, PBOC demand is higher than 23%.In any case, I have been transparent about my methodology. You can make up your own minds. You're all grown ups.Maybe my 20% estimate for SGE double counting is too low, for example.Regardless, China's stated reserves of 2,300 tonnes are laughingly lowball.In a funny kind of way, it's actually better for investors if China has less gold - because it means they have more buying to do and that should help drive prices higher.Its stated 2,300 tonnes only account for 7% of its US$3.4 trillion reserves. To get above 70% and match the US, Germany, France and Italy, at $4,200/oz gold, it would need something like 18,000 tonnes. That's a lot of buying yet to come.Why does China understate its reserves? Softly, softly catchee monkey, and all that: we must not shine too brightly. It doesn't want to rock the boat, particularly while it's still accumulating.This is where we are going, folks.You want to own gold. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

China will maintain an independent and accommodative monetary policy amid the unfolding global rate cut cycle, with future adjustments to be determined by domestic priorities and incoming data, officials and analysts said on Monday.官方及分析人士于周一表示，在当前全球降息周期逐步展开的背景下，中国将继续实施独立且稳健宽松的货币政策，未来政策调整将依据国内发展重点与实际经济数据来确定。Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, said on Monday that China's monetary policy will remain independent and data-driven, following the US Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate by 25 basis points last week.中国人民银行行长潘功胜在周一指出，继上周美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点后，中国货币政策仍将坚持独立性与数据驱动原则。"China's monetary policy adheres to the principle of staying oriented to domestic needs while balancing internal and external factors," Pan said at a news conference, adding that future decisions will be based on macroeconomic conditions and evolving circumstances.潘功胜在新闻发布会上强调：“中国货币政策始终坚持以国内需求为主导，同时统筹兼顾内外部均衡。”他进一步表示，未来货币政策决策将立足宏观经济形势与实际情况变化来制定。Citing international central banking practice, Pan said the PBOC will follow a data-based approach to policy adjustment, and make comprehensive use of multiple tools to ensure ample liquidity and guide financing costs lower.提及国际央行通行做法时，潘功胜表示，中国人民银行会遵循数据导向的政策调整思路，综合运用多种货币政策工具，确保市场流动性合理充裕，并引导融资成本持续下行。Such efforts are aimed at bolstering consumption, expanding investment and consolidating economic recovery, Pan said, stressing that "China's current monetary policy stance is supportive."他指出，这些举措旨在提振消费、扩大有效投资，巩固当前经济回升向好态势，同时明确“中国当前的货币政策立场具备充分的支持性”。Also on Monday, the PBOC released the latest loan prime rates — the market-based lending benchmarks — which remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. The one-year LPR stood at 3 percent, while the over-five-year LPR came in at 3.5 percent.同样在周一，中国人民银行公布了最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）——作为市场基础性贷款利率基准，此次LPR已连续第四个月维持不变。其中，1年期LPR保持3%不变，5年期以上LPR则稳定在3.5%水平。The steady rates were in line with expectations, as the policy rate of seven-day reverse repos has also held stable. Analysts said the third quarter has been a period of observing monetary policy effects, even as the US Fed rate cut provides more policy room for China by potentially ushering in a global rate cut cycle.此次LPR保持稳定符合市场预期，此前7天期逆回购操作利率亦持续维持不变。分析人士认为，尽管美联储降息可能推动全球进入降息周期，为中国货币政策提供更广阔操作空间，但第三季度仍是观察前期货币政策实施效果的关键阶段。Looking ahead, Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, said credit growth remained subdued and property sales became weaker in the third quarter, underscoring the need for interest rate cuts to lower financing costs.展望未来，中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，第三季度我国信贷增长态势偏缓，商品房销售表现进一步走弱，这凸显出通过降息降低市场主体融资成本的必要性。Ming said that the narrowing net interest margin of commercial banks suggests that deposit rates may need to decline before a cut in LPRs can take place, adding that rate cut decisionmakers should also pay attention to the impact on investor sentiment in the stock market.明明指出，商业银行净息差持续收窄，这意味着若要下调LPR，可能需要先推动存款利率下行。此外，政策制定者在作出降息决策时，还需关注其对股票市场投资者情绪的潜在影响。During Monday's news conference, heads from China's top financial regulators also reported the achievements made by the country's financial sector over the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25).在周一的新闻发布会上，我国金融监管部门负责人还介绍了“十四五”规划（2021-2025年）期间我国金融业取得的发展成就。Pan said total assets of China's banking sector reached nearly 470 trillion yuan ($66 trillion) by the end of June, the largest in the world, while the country's stock and bond markets ranked second globally in size.潘功胜透露，截至今年6月末，我国银行业总资产规模接近470万亿元（约合66万亿美元），规模位居全球首位；股票市场与债券市场规模则均位列全球第二。Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at the conference that equity and bond financing on the exchange markets totaled 57.5 trillion yuan in the past five years, raising the share of direct financing to 31.6 percent, up by 2.8 percentage points from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-20).中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清在会上表示，过去五年，我国交易所市场股票与债券融资总额达57.5万亿元，直接融资占比提升至31.6%，较“十三五”规划（2016-2020年）期末提高2.8个百分点。Technology-related stocks now account for over one-fourth of the market capitalization of the A-share market, far surpassing the combined weight of financial and real estate sectors, while dividends and share buybacks reached 10.6 trillion yuan in the past five-year period, more than twice the combined proceeds from IPOs and refinancing, Wu said.吴清指出，目前A股市场中科技相关板块市值占比已超过四分之一，远超金融与房地产板块市值之和；过去五年，A股市场现金分红与股份回购总额达10.6万亿元，是同期首次公开发行（IPO）与再融资募集资金总和的两倍多。Looking ahead, Wu said the commission will advance reforms of the STAR Market and ChiNext regarding IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, and corporate restructurings to amplify support for innovation, improve listed companies' disclosure quality, foster a culture that values and rewards investors, and enhance market regulation and risk-prevention frameworks.对于未来工作方向，吴清表示，证监会将推进科创板、创业板在首次公开发行（IPO）、并购重组等领域的改革，进一步加大对科技创新的支持力度；同时将提升上市公司信息披露质量，培育尊重投资者、回报投资者的市场文化，并健全市场监管与风险防范体系。Wu added that long-horizon assessments of funds will be reinforced, while cross-border investment and financing will be made more convenient to attract more capital inflow.他补充道，监管部门还将强化对基金产品的长期业绩考核，进一步便利跨境投融资活动，吸引更多境外资本流入我国资本市场。Zhu Hexin, administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that overseas institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan worth of onshore stocks, bonds, deposits and loans by the end of July.国家外汇管理局局长朱鹤新表示，截至今年7月末，境外机构与个人持有境内股票、债券、存款及贷款等各类资产规模合计超过10万亿元。Official data showed that foreign investors now hold about 3.4 trillion yuan of A shares, while 269 Chinese companies are listed overseas.官方数据显示，目前境外投资者持有A股规模约3.4万亿元，共有269家中国企业在境外市场上市。accommodativeadj.融通的，适应性强的/əˈkɒmədeɪtɪv/liquidityn.流动性；资产变现能力/lɪˈkwɪdəti/marginn.差额，利润/ˈmɑːdʒɪn/

China's yield curve is being reshaped in a way that has created confusion across the spectrum. Even policymakers at the PBOC are talking about the need to do something. However, market behavior is consistent with what we're seeing around the rest of the world and how it all relates to China finding a way out of its mess and hitting upon a real recovery. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere else. https://www.eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg China Bond Slump Fuels Speculation PBOC Will Resume Debt Buyinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-14/china-bond-slump-fuels-speculation-pboc-will-resume-debt-buyingReuters Chinese money flows into bonds even as central bank warns of riskshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinese-money-flows-into-bonds-even-central-bank-warns-risks-2024-06-27/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Market news for September 15, 2025: Asian markets fluctuate ahead of expected US rate cut; China’s economy slows in August, bond slump fuels speculation PBOC will resume debt buying; BYD’s US$45 billion stock wipeout raises doubts on China outlook; S-Reits deliver double-digit total returns in Q3 as investors await rate cuts. Synopsis: Market Focus Daily is a closing bell roundup by The Business Times that looks at the day’s market movements and news from Singapore and the region. Written and hosted by: Emily Liu (emilyliu@sph.com.sg) Produced and edited by: Chai Pei Chieh & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media --- Follow Market Focus Daily and rate us on: Channel: bt.sg/btmktfocus Amazon: bt.sg/mfam Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/mfap Spotify: bt.sg/mfsp YouTube Music: bt.sg/mfyt Website: bt.sg/mktfocus Feedback to: btpodcasts@sph.com.sg Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks BT Correspondents at: bt.sg/btcobt BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/podcasts BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US stocks rise as producer prices drop ahead of CPI data tonight. China's core inflation rises, meaning the PBOC's easing cycle could be near an end. And New Zealand's traffic data shows the economy may pick up from Q3. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at how China has been building up stockpiles of oil reserves, and why it's about to end. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

APAC stocks initially saw directionless trade following a non-existent lead from Wall Street amid the Juneteenth market holiday.US President Trump offered Iran a two-week window to monitor negotiations before deciding on military action.APAC sentiment eventually turned mostly firmer with notable Israel-Iran newsflow on the lighter side.Japanese Core CPI printed above forecasts; PBoC maintained its 1-year LPR at 3.00% and its 5-year LPR at 3.50%, as expected.European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.9% after cash closed -1.3% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK PSNB, Retail sales, US Philly Fed Business Index, Leading Index Change, Canadian Producer Prices & Retail sales, EU Consumer Confidence, Quad witching, Chinese LPRs, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi meets with European Ministers, Speakers include ECB Governing Council Macroprudential Forum, BoJ's Ueda, Holidays in Sweden, Finland, New Zealand.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Direct Payment Update4:30 Wheat Rally6:13 Russia Wheat Weather7:24 Corn Belt Rains9:53 China Soybean Imports11:35 China Buys More Gold

China's new financial stimulus package reflects policymakers' strong resolve to stabilize the domestic economy and financial markets amid ongoing tariff-related pressures, paving the way for greater monetary and fiscal actions to shore up domestic demand and confidence, economists and analysts said.经济学家和分析人士指出，中国新推出的一揽子经济刺激计划彰显了决策层在关税压力持续的背景下稳定国内经济与金融市场的坚定决心，这为后续出台更多货币和财政政策举措，提振内需、巩固市场信心铺平了道路。The package, unveiled on Wednesday, includes interest rate cuts, liquidity injection and targeted funding for consumption and technological innovation, and is aimed at strengthening credit expansion, anchoring investor expectations and boosting capital market resilience.周三推出的一揽子政策包含降息、流动性注入及针对消费与科技创新的定向资金支持，旨在强化信贷扩张力度、稳定投资者预期并提升资本市场抗风险能力。With the measures indicating that policymakers are taking a proactive stance to brace for worst-case scenarios, additional tools are likely to be in the pipeline, including bolder cuts to interest rates, stepped-up fiscal support for consumption and trade-affected businesses, and the potential launch of a formal stock market stabilization fund.这些措施表明，决策层正以积极主动的姿态未雨绸缪、防范最坏情况，后续可能出台更多政策工具组合，包括更大幅度的降息、针对消费和受贸易冲击行业加大财政支持力度，以及可能正式推出股市平准基金。The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, announced on Wednesday that it will cut the seven-day reverse repos—a key policy benchmark for interest rates—by 10 basis points to 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent, effective on Thursday.中国人民银行周三宣布，自周四起将作为关键政策利率指标的7天期逆回购操作利率下调10个基点，由1.5%降至1.4%。Pan Gongsheng, governor of the PBOC, said the reserve requirement ratio, or RRR—the proportion of deposits that banks must keep as reserves—will be reduced by 0.5 percentage point, unleashing liquidity of around 1 trillion yuan ($138.5 billion). The cut will take effect on May 15.中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，自5月15日起存款准备金率（RRR）——即商业银行需持有的存款准备金比例，将下调0.5个百分点，此次降准预计释放长期流动性约1万亿元人民币（约合1385亿美元）。Speaking at a news conference, Pan announced a raft of targeted monetary support, including lowering the RRR for auto financing and financial leasing companies to zero from 5 percent and reducing interest rates by 25 basis points on housing provident fund mortgages and various structural monetary instruments.潘功胜在新闻发布会上宣布了一系列定向货币政策支持措施，包括将汽车金融公司和金融租赁公司的法定存款准备金率从5%全面下调至零，并将住房公积金贷款及各类结构性货币政策工具利率统一下调25个基点。The central bank will launch two new tools to provide funding for services consumption and eldercare, as well as tech innovation bond investments, Pan added.潘功胜补充道，中国人民银行将创设两项新工具，分别为服务消费与养老产业、以及科技创新债券投资领域提供专项融资支持。David Chao, global market strategist for the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) at investment management company Invesco, said, "The rate cuts are likely to reduce borrowing costs in the real economy and give credit growth the boost it needs."景顺投资管理公司亚太区（除日本外）全球市场策略师赵大卫（David Chao）表示：“此次降息有望降低实体经济融资成本，为信贷增长注入必要动能。”"The combined package of measures—similar to those in September—demonstrates that policymakers remain committed to prioritizing (economic) growth," Chao said.“与去年9月类似的一揽子政策表明，决策层仍致力于将经济稳增长置于优先位置。”赵大卫指出。With the policies coming before the planned China-US trade talks later this week, Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said the PBOC is likely to continue with interest rate cuts and RRR reductions in the second half, as negotiations may go through a complex process while inflation remains subdued at home.随着政策即将出台，中美两国计划于本周晚些时候进行贸易谈判，东方金诚国际首席宏观分析师王青表示，由于谈判进程可能面临波折且国内通胀持续低迷，中国人民银行很可能在下半年继续降息和下调存款准备金率。China's A-share market reacted positively to the measures, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.8 percent to close at 3,342.67 points on Wednesday.中国A股市场对此作出积极反应，周三上证综合指数上涨0.8%，收报3,342.67点。Pan added that the central bank will provide sufficient funding support to Central Huijin Investment, an arm of China's sovereign wealth fund that functions as a quasi-stock market stabilization fund, in increasing share holdings when necessary.潘功胜补充称，央行将为中央汇金投资有限公司（中国主权财富基金旗下机构，承担准股市平准基金职能）提供充足的资金支持，以便其必要时进一步增持股票。Zhang Jun, chief economist at China Galaxy Securities, said it is also necessary for China to launch a formal stock market stabilization fund via legislative procedures, especially amid rising global financial market volatility, to further anchor market expectations.银河证券首席经济学家张军表示，在全球金融市场波动加剧的背景下，中国还需通过立法程序正式设立股市平准基金，以进一步稳定市场预期。Zhang added that as the RRR for some institutions will be cut to zero—breaking through the previously assumed implicit floor of 5 percent—there is now greater room for reducing the RRR of commercial banks, with a 50-basis-point cut likely in the third quarter to coordinate with incremental fiscal stimulus.张军进一步指出，由于部分机构存款准备金率将降至零（突破了此前市场普遍认为的5%隐性下限），商业银行存款准备金率下调空间进一步扩大，第三季度可能再降准50个基点，与增量财政刺激政策形成协同效应。Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, said China needs to take bolder steps—especially on the fiscal front—to clean up debt in the property sector and support consumption by reforming the pension system.野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺表示，中国需采取更大胆举措——尤其是在财政政策方面——通过改革养老金制度来化解房地产行业债务问题并提振消费。Li Yunze, head of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, said that China will accelerate the rollout of financing mechanisms aligned with its new development model of real estate.国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽表示，中国将加快推出与房地产发展新模式相匹配的融资机制。stimulus package一揽子刺激计划; 经济刺激政策the reserve requirement ratio (RRR)存款准备金率reverse repos反向回购; 逆回购benchmark/ˈbentʃmɑ:k/n. 基准PBOC中国人民银行stock market stabilization fund股市平准基金

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open, up +0.6%. European equity markets are mostly weaker in early trades, except with the DAX showing mild resilience after strong German factory orders data. Asian equities traded mostly higher today, led by gains in Greater China markets following the PBOC's liquidity measures. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer will meet China Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland tomorrow, marking the first high-level talks between the two nations since imposing mutual tariffs. The discussions aim at de-escalation rather than significant trade agreements, as both sides face economic pressures from the ongoing dispute. Companies Mentioned: Uber, AvidXchange, Masimo

China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed US-China trade talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng to visit Switzerland from May 9th-12th and will visit France from May 12th-16th for economic and financial dialogue.PBoC Governor Pan announced to cut RRR by 50bps effective May 15th and to cut the policy interest rate by 10bps effective on May 8th with the 7-day reverse repo rate lowered to 1.40% and interest rates on Standing Lending Facility across all tenors lowered by 10bps. Pan stated that the policy rate cut will lead to a Loan Prime Rate cut of 10bps and the RRR cut will release about CNY 1tln in liquidity.An Indian missile attack on Pakistan-controlled territory has killed at least 26 civilians and left 46 injured; a Pakistan military spokesman noted there were exchanges of fire with Indian troops at multiple places along the ceasefire line in Kashmir and announced that five Indian aircraft were shot down.US President Trump said they will have a very big announcement before the Middle East trip which will be a really positive announcement on Thursday, Friday or Monday before they leave.APAC stocks traded mostly higher as participants digested the PBoC's announcement to loosen monetary policy and reports of upcoming US-China talks this week but with the gains capped amid geopolitical escalation between India and Pakistan.European equity futures indicate a slightly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.4% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders, French Trade Balance, EZ Retail Sales, Fed, NBP, CNB & BCB Policy Announcements, Fed Chair Powell's Presser, Supply from France, UK & US, Earnings from AppLovin, Carvana, Arm, DoorDash, AMC, Uber, Disney, Barrick Gold, Bunge, BMW, Fresenius, Siemens Healthineers, Novo Nordisk, Pandora & Nexi.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed US-China trade talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng to visit Switzerland from May 9th-12th and will visit France from May 12th-16th for economic and financial dialogue.PBoC Governor Pan announced to cut RRR by 50bps effective May 15th and to cut the policy interest rate by 10bps effective on May 8th with the 7-day reverse repo rate lowered to 1.40% and interest rates on Standing Lending Facility across all tenors lowered by 10bps. Pan stated that the policy rate cut will lead to a Loan Prime Rate cut of 10bps and the RRR cut will release about CNY 1tln in liquidity.European stocks mixed whilst US-Sino trade talks have been confirmed and as traders await the FOMC.USD stronger vs. peers as US-China meeting spurs trade hopes, JPY underperforms.Two way action for EGBs & Gilts but benchmarks ultimately firmer, aided by auctions. USTs more contained pre-FOMC.Crude firmer on China's monetary policy easing, US-China trade talks, and rising tensions between India and Pakistan.Looking ahead, Fed, NBP, CNB & BCB Policy Announcements, US Treasury Secretary Bessent, Fed Chair Powell's Presser, Supply from the US, Earnings from AppLovin, Carvana, Arm, DoorDash, AMC, Uber, Disney, Barrick Gold.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comGold again today. I just can't stop writing about it.Another day. Another new high. We touched $3,500 in the early hours of yesterday morning.That's 27 new highs in the gold price so far this year.Yet there is still something about this bull market that doesn't feel right or complete: it's not confirmed by silver, which should be trading north of $50. Instead it's mired around $32. Nor is this bull market confirmed by the miners, which, in most cases, are nowhere near all-time highs.Nevertheless, on the basis of gold's price relative to equities, commodities and houses, as outlined last week, gold is starting to look expensive. Is it time to have an eye on the exit?In the short term, maybe. It's overbought. We are going into a weak time of year for gold (May to August). But that's why I like physical. It stops you trading!How about this for a chart?It now takes more work than at any time in the last 100 years to buy an ounce of gold.This is as much a function of declining wages in real terms, and the erosion in value of fiat, as it is the price of gold, but all the same it's pretty incredible: how we've all been lied to!There are, though, many signs that gold is now fully valued.But these are not normal times.And a “proper” bull market will see blow-off tops in silver and the miners. We don't have that yet.Let me give you six more reasons (ie largely previously unmentioned reasons) not to be selling your gold.1. You live in the UK.(This is one I have mentioned before). Do not be fooled by the fact that the pound has been performing relatively well in the foreign exchange markets this year. It has lost 37% of its purchasing power since 2020 and has repeatedly proven to be a rotten store of value.The interest on UK gilts is rising, meaning it is getting increasingly expensive for the government to pay for its own debt. We're above Liz Truss levels and the trend is rising.We've got high energy costs too.What this government is actually doing to rein in its spending is one thing. What needs to be done is something else. There is no Elon Musk taking the guillotine to it all. The scale of our government inefficiency, waste, corruption, misallocation of capital is both larger, relative to GDP, and more entrenched than in the US. At the level of government we are not even having a conversation about what needs to be done, let alone actually doing anything.Nor is there any likelihood of this country re-industriali sing. We'll just have to hope people buy our services, what few we offer. In the meantime we'll keep borrowing to pay for stuff.The only way is currency debasement. There has never been a Labour government that did not devalue sterling. Think this one will be any different? Do not store your wealth in sterling. They take enough from you in taxes as it is. Don't let them take any more.As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.2. Chinese retailI'm endlessly wittering on about China's central bank buying gold, but one thing I confess I've overlooked is Chinese retail buying. Its real estate and stock markets have both been rubbish, the former especially, so they are buying gold instead. Then think about the sheer size of China's retail market: over a billion potential buyers. Never mind central bank buying, the potential scale of this thing is enormous. What if they al buy an ounce each?When do they stop buying and start selling? When their real estate and stock markets pick up … Meanwhile, China's central bank, the PBOC, which says it bought 5 tonnes last month, actually bought ten times that. (De-dollarisation, which is perhaps the biggest factor of the lot, except re-monetisation, does not even make it onto this list as I‘ve covered it so many times before).3. What about Western retail? What about Western institutions? Western retail and institutional investors have been slow to this bull market and are under-allocated. As my buddy Ross Norman says, “this gold rally has not, to date, been driven by retail investors buying coins and bars, high net clients clamouring for physical, nor institutions buying the gold ETF, not even speculative flows to any great extent. This has been an incredibly low participation rally. A stealth run even”. Portfolios are roughly 2% allocated to gold at present. They were four times that at the peak of the last bull market in 2011. That means a lot of room for more Western buying.Since the confiscation of Russian assets, central banks have bought every pullback to the 50-day moving average. But it's not just central banks now, retail and institutional investors the world over are coming to the party. And if you think they're underweight gold, wait until you see how underweight they are gold miners. (Even these are slowly starting to move - MTL anyone :)?)4. Gold vs the Nasdaq - OMGTrends in this ratio tend to go on for a long time, like ten years or more.How about this for a chart?

This week, we dive into the evolving crypto and macro landscape—starting with the latest market signals: BTC dominance climbs to 69%, perp funding turns negative, and BTC options remain cautiously bearish. We also break down technical levels to watch, institutional flow trends, and how global equity valuations are influencing crypto sentiment.On the macro front, rising US-China uncertainty continue to take center stage. We assess potential ripple effects from escalating tariffs, a weakening yuan, and the PBOC's monetary posture.In industry news, Ripple makes a $1.2B acquisition, and Apollo backs Plume's push into tokenized assets. Onchain, stablecoin growth pauses while infrastructure protocols reclaim top revenue spots.We also share Coinbase updates: the May 9 launch of 24/7 derivatives trading, upcoming XRP futures, and progress in tokenized fund access through WisdomTree Connect.Topics Covered:Market Metrics: BTC dominance at 69%, flat-to-negative perp funding, bearish skew in options, and COIN50 reboundMacro Trends: China tariff escalation, yuan devaluation risk, Fed expectations and SPY valuation divergencesIndustry News: SEC stablecoin guidance, Ripple's $1.2B deal, Apollo's investment in Plume, and fundraises from Blackbird & CapOnchain Insights: Stablecoin growth stalls, Aave vote for Pendle PT as collateral, memecoin activity falls relative to overall DEX volumesCoinbase Updates: Derivatives launch (May 9), XRP Futures (Apr 21), WisdomTree tokenized funds, ML & Blockchain SummitUpcoming Catalysts: CPI + Jobless Claims (Thurs), FTX distributions (May 30), Pectra upgrade (end of April)Host:Ben Floyd, Head of Execution Services Speakers:David Han, Research AnalystGeorg Toropov, Senior CES Sales TraderLinks:Coinbase Derivatives is targeting May 9th to enable 24x7 trading for Bitcoin and Ether futures.XRP Futures likely to go live on April 21stWisdomTree Connect: 13 Tokenized Funds Now Available Across Base, Ethereum, Arbitrum, Avalanche and OptimismMachine Learning and Blockchain research summit on Thursday 8th MayCoinbase Blog - Unlocking Government Efficiency with Crypto and Blockchain

The Federal Reserve keeps rates on hold as anticipated. Chairman Jerome Powell signalled he was easing off on the growth forecast and slightly raising inflation projections. However, markets shrugged off any concerns and now expect two more potential rate cuts this year. The PBOC also maintains rates for the fifth straight month with the BoE and the Riksbank set to follow suit. The SNB is likely to cut once again later today. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang talks to our colleagues Stateside, spelling out the firm's A.I. infrastructure building plan. U.S. President Donald Trump hails his phone call with Ukrainian counterpart Volodomyr Zelenskyy, saying peace talks remained on track. Moscow and Kyiv still accuse each other of undermining any partial ceasefire with attacks energy installations.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

China's money markets have started to come unglued, with serious illiquidity driving up money rates. Despite provoking one of the largest liquidity operations in twenty years from the PBOC yesterday, the disorder came back even worse today. All of this against the backdrop of a currency fight and the prospect China's bank credit problem becomes a full-blown liquidity crisis. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China's Central Bank Pumps Near-Historic Level of Cash Into Financial Systemhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/pboc-dials-up-short-term-liquidity-injections-amid-cash-squeezeBloomberg China Cash Squeeze Rolls on Even After Central Bank's Infusionshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-16/china-cash-squeeze-rolls-on-even-after-pboc-liquidity-boostshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

S&P Futures are displaying positive action this morning. Key development is the weakening of bond yields which is due to reports that President elect Trump's team is considering a cautious and slow approach to implementing tariffs to avoid an inflation spike. Markets will be paying close attention to this morning Producer Price Index report which is due out before the bell. Chinese regulators announced plans to collaborate with the PBOC to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy tools to support markets. Isreal and Hamas are said to be close to a Gaza cease fire agreement. KBH delivered a positive earnings report after the bell yesterday. Big banks are schedule to start releasing 4Q earnings tomorrow. Defense-secretary nominee Pete Hegseth's confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee begins this morning. European shares are moving higher this morning and oil prices are trading lower in the pre-market.

The dollar index soars to its highest level since late 2022, prompting the PBOC to ramp up efforts in a bid to protect the yuan. Chinese trade data for December beats expectations. Asian equities start the week slowly following Friday's negative session on Wall Street and the strong December U.S. jobs print. In energy news, Brent rallies to top $81 per barrel on the back of new U.S. sanctions on Russian crude – its highest level for four months. And in Los Angeles, residents are braced for strong Santa Ana winds to return as the death toll from last week's wildfires rises to 24. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Global markets are spooked by elevated yields with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at a near-eight month high while UK Treasury seeks to reassure investors rising gilts. In China, yields also rise as the yuan hits a 16-month low. The PBOC moves to suspend treasury buying due to a shortage of available bonds. X owner Elon Musk reiterates his support for Germany's AfD during a livestream conversation with leader Alice Weidel. In aviation news, Airbus delivered 766 jets in 2024, slightly missing expectations. However the French plane maker maintains its lead over rival Boeing for the sixth year running. Wall Street futures point lower following Christmas with investors now eyeing December's non-farm payroll data due out later today.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this week's Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire dives into the forces reshaping gold and silver markets in 2025, examining how surging physical demand and Basel III regulations drive a structural shift in pricing dynamics.Andrew unveils his bold forecast for gold and silver, then explores the growing impact of dedollarisation and central bank buying in accelerating the transition to a more transparent, physically backed market system.Ask your questions for Andy here: https://forum.kinesis.money/forums/questions-for-lftv-live-from-the-vault.80/ __________________________________________________________________00:00Start02:45The short-term New Year action following December's COMEX-driven sell-off.05:45How Basell III regulations push the price of gold higher.12:05Gold charts: The disparity between physical gold and paper gold markets.16:20Gold charts: a detailed forecast for 2025 (PBOC, COMEX & Basel III)41:45Silver market analysis and price predictions.52:30The impact of recent geopolitical tensions on precious metals markets. __________________________________________________________________Sign up for Kinesis on desktop:https://kinesis.money/kinesis-precious-metals/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=lftv_20Silver,Silver Bull,Silver deficit,precious metals expert,silver price,silver price forecast,Andrew Maguire,andrew maguire silver,next for gold and silver,gold and silver price,precious metals,precious metals investment,gold and silver markets,kinesis,kinesis money,silver rally,Silver short,gold price,LBMA,Central Banks,Fed,Gold Price 2024,gold revaluation,Gold breakout,Silver breakout,China,Russia,India,Gold,PBOC,BRICS,CME Gold LaunchDownload the Kinesis Mobile app - available App Store and Google Play:Apple: https://kms.kinesis.money/signupGoogle: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.kinesis.kinesisappAlso, don't forget to check out our social channels where you can stay up to date with all the latest news and developments from the team.X: https://twitter.com/KinesisMonetaryFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/kinesismoney/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kinesismoney/Telegram: https://t.me/kinesismoneyTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kinesismoney

APAC stocks were mostly subdued in the absence of a lead from Wall St owing to the National Day of Mourning.US President-elect Trump said Russian President Putin wants to meet and 'we' are setting it up.Fed's Bowman (voter) said she supported the December rate cut as a final step in policy calibration.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.4% on Thursday.USD is broadly firmer vs. peers, EUR/USD continued to pivot around 1.03, Cable remains sub-1.23.Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Jobs, US UoM Survey, Chinese M2 Money Supply, FDI, Loan Growth, earnings from Sainsbury's, Tilray, Delta Air, Walgreens Boots Alliance & Constellation Brands.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with most major indices higher although the gains were capped following the negative handover from the US.PBoC is reportedly to plan a policy overhaul as pressure mounts on the economy; likely it would cut interest rates at an appropriate time.European equity futures indicate a slightly softer cash open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 0.5% on Thursday.USD is a touch softer, EUR/USD remains on a 1.02 handle, and Cable is sub-1.24.Looking ahead, highlights include German Unemployment Rate, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US House Speaker Vote, Fed's Barkin & ECB's Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

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In this week's Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire examines the recent gold retracement rally, driven by physical demand reclaiming control from speculative momentum traders, and delves into the central banks' quiet revaluation process.Andrew also highlights China's strategic gold acquisitions and the PBOC's game-changing efforts to bolster the yuan with gold-backed reserves, while Basel III pressures heighten risks of a COMEX default amid soaring delivery demands.Ask your questions for Andy here: https://forum.kinesis.money/forums/questions-for-lftv-live-from-the-vault.80/ __________________________________________________________________Timestamps: 00:00 Start01:40 Andrew discusses the recent gold retracement rally06:50 Gold chart: Andrew's analysis of recent price action16:45 Gold chart: Short-term market outlook20:20 Andrew on China's gold purchases and PBOC efforts32:45 Could a Sino-Russian currency revalue global gold reserves? __________________________________________________________________Sign up for Kinesis on desktop:https://kinesis.money/kinesis-precious-metals/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=lftv_191Download the Kinesis Mobile app - available App Store and Google Play:Apple: https://kms.kinesis.money/signupGoogle: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.kinesis.kinesisappAlso, don't forget to check out our social channels where you can stay up to date with all the latest news and developments from the team.X: https://twitter.com/KinesisMonetaryFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/kinesismoney/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kinesismoney/Telegram: https://t.me/kinesismoneyTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kinesismoney

What would YOU like to hear about on Bloomberg? Help make shows like ours even better by taking our Bloomberg audience survey.Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of Nvidia earnings and existing home sales. In the UK – a preview of the upcoming G20 summit. In Asia – a preview of the PBOC's upcoming rate decision and also the G20 summit. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are some things we need to know about who is actually buying stocks. Yields on the rise - estimate that they could be moving up to what level? Big tech earnings on tap - how will markets react? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? Warm-Up - Gold on a tear - not just gen pop buying - Elephants buying up stocks - The BIG reveal - Musk giving away $ - E-Coli Alert Markets - Yields cranking higher - steepening means.... - A bit of profit taking ahead of tech earnings (next week) - More Tax abatements - Markets look a little tired.... Treasury Rates - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.11% on Monday as investors awaited a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers. - This is a far cry from the lows before the latest rate cut about a month ago. - Elections and debt loads are weighing as are the latest strong economic numbers Yield Curve This too... - The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday. - The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion. - Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023. - Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level. (23% of receipts are used for debt service) - The CBO expects deficits to continue to rise, hitting $2.8 trillion by 2034. On the debt side, the office expects it to rise from the current level near 100% of GDP to 122% in 2034. The Big Reveal - The central bank of the Czech Republic added to positions in some of the biggest tech names among U.S.-traded stocks, as well as increasing a bet on Warren Buffett. - Czech National Bank Bought Up Palantir, Nvidia, Apple, and Berkshire Stock - Here is my take.... (Central Banks reporting to other options as they are strapped and backs against the wall. They know they have enough firepower to pump stocks to try to dig themselves out of a death spiral of debt) - Is it legal - yes. Is it good for markets, yes. Is it dangerous? Yes and no - if you can print money - who cares? More... Let's not forget about China rolling out $112 Billion scheme to bolster stocks - China's central bank kicked off two funding schemes on Friday that will initially pump as much as 800 billion yuan ($112.38 billion) into the stock market through newly-created monetary policy tools. - The central bank also launched a relending program, initially worth 300 billion yuan, that would allow financial institutions to borrow from the PBOC to fund share purchases by listed companies or their major shareholders. - 1.75% is the rate to borrow and buy stocks Revealed - Just a quick look.... - The Swiss National Bank has 20% of its assets in equities. - The Bank of Japan buys Japanese ETFs as part of its domestic money market operations, but it doesn't buy foreign stocks. - The Bank of Finland does invest in equities - Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, buys stocks. - Bank of Finland buys stocks - Last quarter - Norway's gigantic sovereign wealth fund on Tuesday reported third-quarter profit of 835 billion Norwegian kroner ($76.3 billion) - - - To date, the fund has put money in more than 8,760 companies in 71 countries around the world. NO TAXES! - Donald Trump said he'd consider exempting police officers, firefighters, active duty military and veterans from paying taxes - Why not just have no taxes for everyone? --- UPDATE:  Former President Donald Trump's tax r...

S&P Futures are moving lower this morning as the market prepares for a host of earnings announcements this week. China's PBOC lowered two of its short-term lending rates this morning. Shares of Boeing are higher this morning as a deal to end the months-long strike is said to have been reached. Merger talks between Humana and Cigna are said to have restarted. Starboard appears to have taken a stake in KVUE. Tuesday morning earnings announcements are schedule for GE, GM, MMM, MCO, LMT, RTX, TXN, & VZ. In Europe, markets are lower with banks and insurance stocks moving lower. Oil prices are higher by more the +1.50% this morning.

S&P Futures are showing gains this morning due to economic and earnings news. China economic numbers came in better than expected & the PBOC indicates more stimulus to come. last night NFLX released a positive earnings report. Shares of SLB & PG are fractionally higher after releasing earnings this morning. CVS replaced its CEO and slashed its quarterly guidance. Nike credit rating was downgraded last night, and revenue is expected to contract next year. In Europe, markets are mostly higher with autos and luxury stocks showing gains. Oil prices have given up early morning gains and is now lower.

As the PBOC and Fed shift their stances on rates and liquidity flows, the macro landscape is evolving rapidly. In this episode of Bits + Bips, we unpack how these policy changes could spark a massive surge across all asset classes—from equities and bonds to Bitcoin and crude oil.  The hosts, joined by Nikos Kargadouris, a seasoned trader, discuss why liquidity is about to flood the markets, why fears of a U.S. recession may be overblown, and how even memecoins could benefit.  Plus, are central banks close to buying bitcoin ETFs? Show highlights: How the PBOC's shift in policies impacted the markets and when we'll see a “bazooka” How market complacency and short positions on oil amid geopolitical tensions could lead to mispricing and unexpected volatility How rising crude oil prices could slow the U.S. economy, despite the country being a net oil exporter How strong payrolls data reduced market expectations of U.S. rate cuts Why predictions of a U.S. recession might be off Whether it matters for crypto who wins the elections  The chances of central banks adopting Bitcoin What the outlook for memecoins looks like in the next months Whether the HBO documentary about the identify of Satoshi Nakamoto will be a disappointment  Sponsors: Gemini Stellar Hosts: James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard Joe McCann, Founder, CEO, and CIO of Asymmetric Guest: Nikos Kargadouris, Chief Investment Officer of a private investment office specializing in cross-asset thematic macro and digital asset strategies. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:09 Impact of the PBOC's policy shift and timing of the “bazooka” 15:01 Oil mispricing and volatility due to geopolitical tensions 27:30 Rising oil prices and potential U.S. economic slowdown 35:51 Strong payrolls reducing expectations for U.S. rate cuts 44:11 Why U.S. recession predictions might be wrong 50:10 Can prediction markets reflect U.S. election outcomes? 56:05 Does the election winner matter for crypto? 1:04:43 Memecoin outlook for the next months 1:15:34 Will the HBO documentary disappoint? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our Chief China Economist Robin Xing and Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang discuss how markets have responded to rate cuts and commitments to government spending, and what they could mean over the long term.----- Transcript -----Laura Wang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist. Robin Xing: And I'm Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Economist.Laura Wang: All eyes have been on China this past week, and today we'll discuss why recent news from China's policymakers have commanded the attention of global markets.It's Thursday, October the 3rd, at 4pm in Hong Kong.So, Robin, China has been wrestling with the triple macro challenge of debt deflation and demographics -- what we call the three Ds -- for some time now. Last week, China's central bank, PBOC, announced a stimulus package that exceeded market expectations. And then later in the week, top China Communist Party officials, known as the Politburo, focused their monthly meeting on economics, which is not their usual practice.This meeting was a positive surprise to both us and the market. Let's start with the PBOCs easing package. For listeners who haven't been following China's economy closely, what's our current view on China's economy and can you walk us through the policy measures that the central bank introduced?Robin Xing: China's economy has been struggling lately and that's pushed the Beijing to pivot approach. Over the last 18 months, they have tried smaller, reactive measures. But now, they are doing something much bigger. On September 24, the People's Bank of China, PBOC, made a bold move, cutting interest rates and introducing new tools to support the stock market.Now, these cuts might sound small, just 20 basis points, but they are pretty rare in China. They also cut the reserve requirement ratio, which is a fancy way of saying banks can lend more money by 50 basis points. And for the first time, the central bank gave forward guidance, signaling even more cuts could come by year end.On top of that, the PBOC launched two big programs, a 500 billion yuan fund to help investors buy stocks, and a 300 billion yuan program to help companies buy back their own shares. These moves gave a much-needed boost to both the markets and consumer confidence.Laura Wang: And how about the Politburo meeting that came on the heels of the PBOC announcement? What exactly did it focus on?Robin Xing: The Politburo meeting was a rather critical moment. Normally, they don't even talk about the economy in September. But this year was different. It really signaled how urgent things have become.They made it clear they are ready to spend more. The government is pledging to increase public spending because other parts of the economy, like corporates and consumers, are holding back. There is also a big focus on the housing market, which has been in decline since 2021. They are promising to stop that slide, and it's the strongest commitment we have seen so far.Laura Wang: So, given everything we've seen from the PBOC and the Politburo, do you think this is a ‘whatever it takes moment' to address the macro challenges facing China's economy?Robin Xing: Not quite, but it's close. We are seeing the start of what's going to be a bumpy recovery. The deflation problem, where prices are falling and people are not spending, is complicated.Beijing seems open to trying different approaches, but fixing the deeper issues -- like the struggling housing market and the local government debt -- it's going to take a lot. In fact, we think China might need to spend about 1-1.5 trillion dollars over the next two years to really turn things around.Right now, the measures they have announced are smaller than that. That's because these are new policies. And they still need to build consensus and work out the details. So, while this isn't a ‘whatever it takes moment' yet the mindset has definitely shifted in that direction.Laura Wang: In this case, what are the next steps you are monitoring for China's policymaker and how long will the various measures take to implement?Robin Xing: We expect to see a supplementary budget of 1-2 trillion yuan announced at the upcoming NPC Standing Committee meeting in late October. This budget should focus on boosting consumer spending, increasing social welfare, and helping local governments managing their debt. We will likely see more monetary easing too.As well as tweaks to the Housing Inventory Buy Back program. These steps should help the economy grow slightly faster, possibly hitting a 5 per cent quarter on quarter growth over the next two quarters, compared to the 3 per cent we have seen recently.Looking ahead, we will get more clues at the December Central Economic Work Conference. That's when we might see the first signs of plans to use central government funds to tackle housing and local government debt issues. The full details could come in March 2025. If things don't improve quickly, and especially if social unrest starts to rise, Beijing may have to act even more aggressively.We are keeping an eye on our social dynamics indicator, which tracks how people feel about jobs, welfare and income. If that dips further, it could push the government to ramp up stimulus measures.Laura, turning it over to you. How are stock markets reacting to all this policy signaling from China?Laura Wang: I would say to say that the market has responded very enthusiastically is an understatement. I'll give you some numbers.On the first day of the PBOC announcement, the Shanghai Composite Index, as well as the Hong Kong Market Hang Seng Index, were both up by more than 4 per cent in one single day. Then with the further boost from the surprise Politburo meeting -- by now, both the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index have already been up by more than 21 per cent in just one week's time.Robin Xing: Within the China stock market, which sectors and industries do you think will most benefit from the shift in policy?Laura Wang: There are a few ways to position to benefit from this major market condition change. We have a list of companies that we believe will directly benefit from the PBOC market stabilization funding, given the funding's low cost compared to these companies implied re-rating opportunity, just by tapping into the funding and enhancing their shareholder returns.For the potential reflationary fiscal efforts suggested by the Politburo meeting, as more details come out, I think sectors with good exposure to reflation, particularly the private consumption, will benefit the most -- given their still relatively low valuation, large market cap and high liquidity.Robin Xing: Finally, Laura, what are your expectations for the markets in China and outside of China for the next few weeks and months?Laura Wang: Clearly this rally so far is reflecting significant sentiment improvement and capitals that are willing to take a leap of faith and preposition for physical reflationary efforts ramp up. If the government can deliver these measures in a timely fashion, and more importantly, on top of that, communicate their commitment to winning this uphill battle against deflation, I think further valuation re-rating is quite possible for both the Asia market and the Hong Kong market by another 10 to 20 per cent.To go beyond that level, we need to see clear signs of a corporate earnings growth reacceleration, which would require incrementally more easing to come along in the next few months. We should also monitor the housing market inventory level very closely because any earlier completion of this inventory digestion could suggest less drag on demand investment.Obviously, there are still a lot of moving parts and it's still a very much evolving story from here. Robin, thanks for taking the time to talk.Robin Xing: Great speaking with you, Laura.Laura Wang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Not content to leave it with the PBOC's Oprah-fest of rate cutting, China's central authorities announced what's being called a massive stimulus push. The response has been near-euphoria in Chinese and other stocks, but the opposite in more crucial markets and places. All the more curious given how much other "stimulus" is being offered around the world, central bank rate cuts that are accelerating. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisThe Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work.https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202409/content_6976686.htmReuters Exclusive: China to issue $284 billion of sovereign debt this year to help revive economyhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-issue-284-bln-sovereign-debt-this-year-help-revive-economy-sources-say-2024-09-26/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

S&P futures are pointing to a lower open today, down (0.14%). Asian equities closed mixed for the day, while European equity markets are broadly lower in early trades. Chinese equities were slow to advance further following Tuesday's rally. The initial impact of China's stimulus measures is also diminishing in European markets, though the sentiment remains largely positive in the APAC region. Strategists note potential upside for market PE ratios, with sectors like high-dividend stocks, internet platforms, financials, and property developers expected to benefit. Economists are optimistic about the PBOC's easing measures but emphasize the need for additional fiscal support to stimulate private consumption.Companies Mentioned: KKR, Lifeway Foods, SAP

S&P futures are indicating a higher open today, up +0.22%. Following China's policy easing announcements, Asian equities closed mostly higher, with Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng recording substantial gains. European equity markets are also higher in early trades. In today's highlight, PBOC announced measures to stimulate China's economy, including a 50 bps cut to the RRR to release CNY1T in liquidity, with potential further cuts by year-end. The 7-day reverse repo rate will decrease by 20 bps to 1.5%, and interest rates on existing mortgages will be reduced, alongside a nationwide reduction in the down payment ratio for second homes to 15%. China will also allow funds and brokers to use central bank funding for stock purchases and establish special refinancing options for share buybacks. Companies Mentioned: Chevron, Liberty Broadband, Visa, Brookfield Asset Management

US futures are indicating a softer open. European equity markets are mixed and Asian markets were mostly higher. Markets are still reacting to last week's Federal Reserve rate cut, with futures indicating a 50% chance of another cut in November. In China, the PBOC reduced its 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points ahead of the upcoming Golden Week holiday. This move follows weak macro data for August and comes as CNY1.5 trillion in funds are set to mature this week. In Japan, takeaways from the recent BOJ meeting, and Governor Ueda's press conference, leaned dovish, signaling a potential delay in rate hikes to December.Companies Mentioned: Intel, Tesla, BMW, Volkswagen, Vail Resorts

S&P Futures are weakening this morning as the markets react to more cental bank decisions. The economic calendar is light today. Overnight, Lennar, Fed Ex and MillerKnoll released disappointing earnings. The BOJ and the PBOC left rates unchanged, markets were expecting a rate cut from the PBOC. Nike's CEO announced his retirement. Autos are weak as Mercedes trimmed its forecast amid ongoing weakness in China. Chip stocks are also falling. In Europe, markets are pulling back as autos, luxury and tech stocks fall. Oil prices are edging lower as China's PBOC left rates unchanged overnight.

US futures are indicating a flat open. European equity markets are trading lower, following a mixed session in Asia where equities finished with minor gains and losses. Market attention is focused on central bank decisions this week, with the Fed, BoE, BoJ, and PBoC all on the agenda. A majority of economists anticipate a 25 basis points Fed rate cut, though markets are positioning for a potential 50 basis points cut at Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Yen strength is the main story in FX markets. Another round of soft Chinese economic data has increased concerns over the country's ability to meet its 2024 growth target. Companies Mentioned: Blackstone, Walt Disney, Amazon, Samsung, Xiaomi

S&P futures are indicating a higher open today, up +0.13%. Asian markets finished Monday trading mixed, and European equity markets are also mixed in early trades. For today's highlight, the PBOC left the MLF rate unchanged while draining a net CNY101B after a delayed operation. The yuan's midpoint fixing is the strongest since mid-June, with policymakers focusing on preventing sharp appreciation. Economists have lowered their 2024 forecasts for China's inflation, investment, and consumption due to weak domestic demand, despite expected rate cuts. Retail sales growth is projected at 4%, the lowest outside the pandemic, and fixed asset investment is down to 4.2%. The CPI forecast is reduced to 0.5%. Companies Mentioned: Intel, Visa, Carlyle, Blackstone, Paramount Global, Coupang

While the world was distracted by US recession provoking a Japanese stock market crash, China was continuing to meltdown. In just the past few days the country reported: a record drop in foreign money fleeing China; the first contraction in bank lending to the real economy in nineteen years; record low market interest rates; and the PBOC going off the rails trying to derail that bond rally. And we thought China was in rough shape...last month. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China Goes to New Extreme in Crackdown on Bond-Market Frenzyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-13/china-goes-to-new-extremes-in-crackdown-on-bond-market-frenzyBloomberg China Regulators Tell Some Rural Banks to Renege on Bond Tradeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/china-regulators-tell-some-rural-banks-to-renege-on-bond-tradesBloomberg China Brokers Curb Bond Trading Amid PBOC Warnings on Rallyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/chinese-brokers-curb-bond-trading-amid-warnings-on-rallyBloomberg China Asked State Banks to Keep Record of Government Bond Buyershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/china-s-state-banks-asked-to-record-buyers-of-government-bondshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's dollar woes have jumped in recent months, so much that they've come out of the eurodollar shadows enough to impact the onshore banking system in an unexpected way. Foreign holdings of negotiable bank CDs have exploded. We'll discuss what that means and how it relates to China's dollar shortage and the surprise set of rate cuts announced by the PBOC earlier today.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Global Funds Pile Up Nearly a Trillion Yuan of China Bank Bondshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/global-funds-pile-up-nearly-a-trillion-yuan-of-china-bank-bondsBloomberg China Surprises With Rate Cut After Xi's Big Meeting Disappointshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/pboc-cuts-seven-day-reverse-repo-rate-to-1-7-to-support-economyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly desperate over their inability to stabilize any of the economy, banking system, or markets. CNY keeps going down, as does the economy. Banks in China aren't lending while dozens are now 'disappearing.' Safety/liquidity of government bonds makes perfect sense. Not to the PBOC which is going to be shorting it by hundreds of billions and this is why.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGEhttps://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-saleBloomberg Closer Yen, Yuan Correlation Is Danger Sign for Asian Currencieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-10/closer-yen-yuan-correlation-is-danger-sign-for-asian-currencies?srnd=economics-v2X Video showing Jiangxi Bank 'protest'https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1810456112652779538The Economist Why Chinese banks are now vanishinghttps://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/04/why-chinese-banks-are-now-vanishingBloomberg China Merges Hundreds of Rural Banks as Financial Risks Mounthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/china-merges-hundreds-of-rural-banks-as-financial-risks-mountBloomberg China's PBOC Readies Multibillion-Yuan Pool of Bonds to Sell by Tapping Major Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-05/pboc-readies-hundreds-of-billions-of-yuan-bond-sale-capacityCNN Chinese government bonds are on fire. That's ringing alarm bells in Beijinghttps://www.cnn.com/2024/07/03/business/china-bond-market-bank-crisis-svb-intl-hnk/index.htmlChina NBS June 2024 CPIhttps://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202407/t20240710_1955508.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Government bond yields in China just plunged to more record lows as market agents are growing even more pessimistic. The unquenchable demand for safe and liquid assets has the PBOC getting ready to sell bonds into a marketplace that is increasingly concerned about a lot more than Chinese issues. More strong evidence for globally synchronized.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Economists Raise China Growth Forecasts as Exports Improvehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-25/economists-raise-china-growth-forecasts-as-exports-improveBloomberg El-Erian Says Slowing Economy Raises Fed Policy-Error Riskhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-28/el-erian-says-slowing-economy-raises-fed-policy-error-riskBloomberg A $100 Billion Bet on China's Economy Sours as Warehouses Emptyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-01/china-s-third-plenum-and-what-it-means-for-tax-reform-and-supply-chains?srnd=economics-v2https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture The green new scam is finished, they can't even control the narrative. Dollar stores are either closing or charging way more than a dollar. Biden is bribing the young with loan cancellation. Countries are now accumulating gold in mass. The [DS] is now putting everything in place for the approaching election. They are now setting it up so they can control the flow information by going after the ISPs. Commissioner Carr is now warning the people. We have gone from dark to light. FBI/DOJ send warning of lone wolves from ISIS. Fake news warns about how the Post Office cannot handle mail-in ballots. Scavino sends a message to watch the water.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1777410754179740114 Dollar Tree Shoppers Revolt Over $7 Items  On March 13, Dollar Tree CEO Rick Dreiling told investors during a conference call, "This year, across 3,000 stores, we expect to expand our multi-price assortment by over 300 items at price points ranging from $1.50 to $7." Discount retailer Dollar Tree has sparked a revolt among some of its customers after increasing the price cap of items to $7 across thousands of stores nationwide. "If it were really going to go up like $7 … that'd be too much. I'd rather just get everything at Walmart," Scott Kolack, a Dollar Tree regular, told WPTV-TV (West Palm Beach). "Over time, you will also see us fully integrate multi-price merchandise more into our stores so our shoppers will find $5 bags of dog food next to our traditional $1.25 pet treats and toys, and our $3 bags of candy will be found in the candy aisle," Dreiling said. Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1777403354320142376 Biden Announces New Student Loan Forgiveness Plan for More Than 30 Million Borrowers The Biden administration on Monday unveiled a new student loan forgiveness plan aimed at offering relief to more than 30 million borrowers. The new plan would cancel up to $20,000 of accrued interest for every borrower regardless of income, with complete forgiveness of outstanding interest for low- and middle-income borrowers participating in an income-driven repayment plan, according to a White House statement on Monday. Source: freebeacon.com https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1777368397124186489 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1777678521688543502   in just 1 year and 250 square feet since 2016. The new reality is that people are paying more to get less with many goods and services. Affordability will never go back to pre-pandemic levels. https://twitter.com/RichAStern/status/1777534309273874722 https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1777425983286427902  the resilience in the U.S. economy since the end of the pandemic has mostly been due to the labor market, but this might start to slow down in the near future. "You haven't had that weakness in labor markets that, I think, you normally would have had and would have [caused] a recession [in 2023]," he told CNBC. "That doesn't mean we won't have one, but it means whatever it is, it's delayed." https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1777449659209802231 the PBOC has now bought Gold for a straight 17 months, and the Russian Central Bank will accelerate the buying from this month (crude goes up so their FX goes up). We can see parabolic moves if the retail crowd in the West also jumps in! Political/Rights DOJ Refuses to Hand Over Audio Recordings of Biden's Special Counsel Interview After Transcrip...