Podcasts about us fed

Kick off your Monday with the latest from India's business world! Food inflation stays soft for now, Tamil Nadu takes the NEET Bill fight to the Supreme Court, and Nifty, Sensex, and Bank Nifty rebound with FPIs back in action. Gold and silver see choppy moves as US Fed rate hopes waver. Get today's top business news, market trends, key economic updates, and the latest on commodities, equities, and policy developments from India and around the globe.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is rising more quickly in one large economy, the US, and policymakers and financial markets are getting skittish.Firstly, this week will be dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia's release of the minutes of its November 5 meeting. There will be intense interest on their views of inflation risks. Then the US Fed will release the minutes of its October 30 meeting and observers will be looking for similar clues.Locally we will get another full dairy auction, and trade data this week, preceded this morning by the REINZ October results at 9am.Trade, inflation and PMI data will be coming from a range of countries. From the US, we await how they will be catching up with their official data releases. There will be the usual prosaic private sector data releases but the new weekly ADP employment data will bring intense interest, as will some earnings reports, especially from Nvidia.There will be little major data this coming week from China, because they released most of it this past weekend. And that was headlined by an big unexpected negative surprise from their fixed asset investment data. They said it fell -1.7% for the year to October. But that belies a huge -11% drop in the month from the same month a year earlier. For a country as large as China, that is a mammoth and sudden shift. The really large decrease was in the industrial northeast region. And it is puzzling analysts, especially in the light of the electricity data surge. Perhaps a clue is in this factoid in their data release: "fixed asset investment by foreign-invested enterprises decreased by 12.1%". The slump raises important questions about the health of their domestic demand which is still over-reliant on exporting. The internal economy still hasn't gotten over the real estate slump and the resulting defensive change in attitudes by their consumers.China's new home prices in October across their 70 major cities were unchanged from September, officially, but dropped -2.2% from the same month a year ago. This was the same year-on-year decline they had in September. Most analysts expected a lesser decline of -2.0%. Seven of the 70 cities posited modest year-on-year price gains. None posted any gains for resales.Meanwhile, China's retail sales held up better than expected, up +2.9% from a year ago with better holiday spending. Their official industrial production was up +4.9% from a year ago in October, a rather large easing in their 6.0% September growth rate.China's electricity production fell in October, but that was less than expected and less that the usual seasonal pattern so it was up an unusually large +7.9% from a year ago. That may have something to do with the electricity appetite by AI infrastructure.In India, bank loan growth stayed very high in October to easily a new record, even if the percentage rise wasn't as high as September. That is now three consecutive months where new debt has risen by more than +11% from the same month a year ago.In Canada, they released some September data over the weekend and it was quite positive. Their manufacturing sales rose +2.7% real, and their wholesale trade rose +0.6% real, both from August. Year-on-year it isn't so positive although manufacturing sales are almost back to those levels (-0.8%) after being down -4.1% in May. Both data sets indicate remarkable resilience, and their fast transition even after being dumped-on capriciously by the US.And there was some interesting data out over the weekend from the EU, where their trade surplus rose to +€19 bln in September. That was its best in five months and +50% better that year ago results. Driving the gains were exports to the US and the UK, offset somewhat by imports from India and Mexico. Imports from the US rose too but at a slower pace than the export activity. Imports from South Korea fell sharply. Trade activity with China was little-changed although it remains deeply negative (that is, more imports from China than exports to China).In the US there are clear signs investors are getting quite skittish about the risks of bonds tied to AI companies. Don't forget bonds have priority over equities, so the dive for insurance on bonds isn't a great sign. Bloomberg is reporting the demand for credit default swaps is surging for these bonds and they cite what is happening in Oracle's case. A surge in debt is expected to flood debt markets soon as these AI companies ramp up funding of their plans.And there is the news that Trump is now rolling back some of his tariff-taxes, because even he can see they have caused household inflation and the 'affordability crisis' he is being blamed for. US inflation pressure is moving the dial in money markets. The chance of a Fed rate cut on December 11 (NZT) is fading, and quite quickly, as professional traders scale back the bets on a cut rather sharply.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, up another +1 bp from Saturday at this time up +7 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4081/oz, and down -US$17 from this time yesterday. That is up +US$17 for the week.American oil prices have held from Saturday to be just over US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$64.50/bbl, up less than +US$1 from a week ago.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.8 USc, and unchanged from Saturday, up +60 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3, little-changed from yesterday, up +60 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,374 and down another -1.5% from yesterday. That is its lowest since May 2025 and down -8.9% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The Aussie sharemarket extended losses to a third straight day, weighed down by fading hopes of another RBA rate cut this year after yesterday’s hotter-than-expected inflation data. The ASX200 slipped about half a percent, trimming October’s monthly gain to just 0.5%. Overnight, the US Fed delivered another 25-basis-point rate cut but signalled caution about further easing, while Nvidia hit a record US$5 trillion valuation. Locally, healthcare and energy stocks led modest gains, but sharp falls in consumer discretionary shares — dragged by Wesfarmers — kept the broader market under pressure. Investors also watched a high-stakes meeting between US and Chinese leaders, their first face-to-face since Trump’s re-election, aimed at easing trade tensions. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Fed has begun cutting again, but without the comfort investors expected. Jerome Powell’s message was clear: the path to lower rates will be “data-dependent,” not automatic. Meanwhile, stocks remain at all-time highs, gold continues to glitter, and yields are refusing to budge. Dan Koh speaks with Ben Emons, Chief Investment Officer at Fed Watch Advisors, about what the Fed’s shift in tone really means, how the end of quantitative tightening could reshape liquidity, and whether markets are due for a healthy pullback after months of record highs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Get the latest updates impacting the Nifty and Sensex! In today's market summary, we cover the significant global and Indian economic developments.The US Federal Reserve announced its second rate cut of 25 basis points, but future cuts are uncertain due to elevated inflation and tariff risks. Globally, Nvidia crosses a massive $5 Trillion valuation fueled by the relentless AI boom and key 6G partnerships. Domestically, India is considering a crucial $12 Billion bailout plan for power distributors, linked to mandatory privatization and structural reforms.We also deep-dive into the strong Q2/Q3 earnings season, featuring:- L&T: Huge 45% jump in order inflows with strong international contribution.- PB Fintech: 164% profit surge driven by renewal flywheel and cost control.- Varun Beverages (VBL): Major pivot into the alcoholic beverages segment.- CG Power: Robust backlog and announcement of new switchgear capex.- APL Apollo Tubes: Record profitability driven by value-added products mix.- Five-Star Business Finance: Solid AUM and NII growth.Stay ahead of the market and understand the factors driving stock performance!

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news benchmark bond rates are on the move higher as the bond market passes its judgment on the geopolitical trade situation and the US Fed's signals.Basically they are pricing in risks where American inflation risks are not contained, and there is no real resolution to the trade tensions triggered by Trump.The Trump/Xi meeting ended with Trump claiming it was "an amazing meeting" with "all issues resolved". Markets discounted the hubris seeing the outcome actually making little practical progress. But at least it seems to be a truce. If there is any progress, it will come after further negotiations. Basically it was a photo op resulting in an invitation for Trump to visit Beijing where his ego can be stroked.The meeting brought China more time to finesse its position with the US, and more broadly, it made clear just how much stronger China has become since Xi and Trump last met. And interestingly, neither country has yet bothered to release a readout of the leaders meeting.In Japan, their central bank kept its benchmark short-term rate unchanged at 0.5% in October 2025 and extending a pause since the last hike in January. It was the market-expected decision, bit it was a split 7-2 result, with two members pushing for a rise to 0.75%, as they had at the prior meeting.Japanese share erased losses after the central bank boss gave his press conference review, but the yen dipped.In Europe, with inflation under control and its economy humming along at a modest level, but near potential, the ECB left all their settings unchanged, both interest rates (at 2.15%) and their balance sheet run-down pace. It has been a long time since they can claim their objectives are running as they would like.Meanwhile, overall economic sentiment is picking up in the EU, consistent with the improving economic data. Both industry and consumer sentiment are up in October and expectations are back to long-term averages, a position they haven't been in since early 2022.So it will be no surprise to know the Q3-2025 EU GDP rose from Q2 to be +1.5% higher than a year agoIn Germany, their October inflation rate inched lower to 2.3% from 2.4% in the prior month. But this wasn't quite as bigger move as the 2.2% rate expected. Energy costs there are falling and food prices are up only a modest +1.4% within the overall result.Globally, passenger air travel rose +3.6% in September from a year ago, with international travel up +5.1%. This was led by Asia/Pacific's +7.4% increase and trailed by North America's +2.5% rise. US domestic travel stood out with its -1.7% fall, the only region to record a shrinkage.Container freight rates rose another +4% last week, as China-USWC, and China-EU rates picked up notably. Overall they are now -41% lower than year-ago levels.Bulk freight rates fell -4.9% last week to now be +42% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +7 bps from yesterday after the Fed announcement and after the US-China talks. The price of gold will start today at US$3999/oz, up +US$6 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are unchanged from yesterday at just on US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price just on US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.5 USc, and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,076 and down another -2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the two big policy set pieces today have been underwhelming.First up today, the US Fed trimmed its policy rate by -25% as expected, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. It issued a timid wait-and-see review which would be consistent with growing divisions within the policymaking committee, and growing worries that inflation is returning even as their labour markets weaken fast. Policy during stagflation requires a choice. One group wants the low-interest rate juice now, the other takes its inflation fighting mandate seriously.Immediately after the announcement, the S&P500 dipped slightly, the UST 10 year yield rose a few basis points, and the USD changed little. The announcement had no impact on the gold price - nor the bitcoin price.Earlier is was reported that mortgage applications rose +7.1% last week from the weak prior week, mainly on the back of pent-up refinance activity. Mortgage interest rates dipped but only minorly and were probably not the reason for the jump, which came after four consecutive weeks of decline. But having noted that, the small rate dip did taken them to their lowest level in more than a year.September pending home sales were soft, dipping -0.9% from the same month a year ago. This followed a +3.8% rise in August.As expected, the Bank of Canada trimmed its policy rate by -25 bps to % in its overnight decision. It said that the Canadian economy is adjusting to tariffs and the sharp drop in demand for exports. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is leading to higher costs. Total inflation there has been around 2%, while underlying inflation remains about 2½%. Following the decision, their central bank boss suggested their easing cycle may be over as they expect cost pressure to rise as their economy goes through this adjustment phase.Malaysia's producer prices dipped slightly in September, down -0.8% from a year ago, but this was the least in six months as deflationary pressures seem to be past them now.Meanwhile Singapore's producer prices are on the upswing now. They rose +3.7% in September from a year ago, the most in six months. It was more for factory products with those surging about double that rate on the year-ago basis.In Australia, inflation is rising, and by more than expected. Their monthly indicator reported it rose +3.5% from the same month in 2024. The RBA meets next Tuesday to decide on its cash rate, and this seems to put the kibosh on the chance of any cut. In fact, a rate hike might get some airtime in their review.At the APEC meeting in South Korea, all eyes are on the Xi-Trump meeting results - and how far Trump has backed down. (TACO) Of course, both sides will talk up the outcome, but early signs are that things like China's resumption of soybean imports from the US will be nominal at best. Trump's deals with both Korea and Japan have long-tail implications that may not work out for the US. But the short-term optics are all that matters at present.Demand for air cargo transport rose for its seventh straight month, up +2.8% in September globally from a year ago, up +3.2% for international air shipments. This was led by the +6.9% rise in the Asia/Pacific region, and lagged by the -1.4% retreat in North America,The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.00%, after the Fed announcement. The price of gold will start today at US$3993/oz, up +US$38 overnight and making back yesterday's drop.American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price just on US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.8 USc, and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,195 and down -3.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Fed is meeting but flying blind on both inflation and jobs data. But other indications suggests the US economy is fading faster than previously assumed.In the US oil patch, the Dallas Fed said service sector activity contracted further in October with the revenue index, a key measure of service sector conditions, falling to its lowest reading since July 2020. Employers are shedding jobs, they notedThings weren't great in the mid-Atlantic states region but not as tough as in Texas. The Richmond Fed's factory survey contracted less in October than September, but they also reported employers shedding jobs.Despite those two reports, the ADP Employment Report indicated that private payrolls rose an average of +14,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending on October 11, as they move to fill the labour market data void because of the BLS shutdown. If that pace holds for October, US jobs growth in the month will be about +57,000 and better than the -32,000 in September decline. Both are unusually low levels. (In October 2023, the US reported +186,000 job gains, so they have fallen a long way since then.)Also not as negative as expected is US consumer sentiment as measured by the Conference Board. It did ease lower in October, but not as low as some had feared although it is now at a six month low. Those on low incomes (under US$75,000/year) or over 55 years were more negative than those 35-55 and on higher incomes.But overnight a range of large employers announced job cuts. UPS said it has shed -48,000 jobs, Amazon -14,000. They aren't the only ones. On top of the US Federal Government furloughs, they are facing some significant labour market strainThe Fed will likely deliver a -25 bps rate cut tomorrow.Across the Pacific, South Korea said its economy grew +1.7% real in Q3-2025 from the same quarter in 2024, building on a widening expansion. Over the past year, all of their growth has come in Q2 and Q3-2025.Chinese president Xi and US president Trump are due to meet to try and work out a trade accommodation. It will be ironic that Trump can compromise with another dictator, but not with elected representatives in his own country.In India, they reported that their expansion of industrial production held up better than expected. It rose +4.1% in August and that was expected to ease to +2.6% in September. Burt in fact their fast expansion rolled on with a +4.0% gain last month. Their factory sector rose +4.8% on the same basis. This is a very good result for them.In Europe, inflation expectations dipped slightly to 2.7% in OctoberLater today, Australia will report its September inflation results, both their quarterly CPI and their monthly inflation indicator. Both are expected to rise to the 3% level. Recent comments by the RBA governor suggest they are in no hurry to cut their policy rate, given inflation remains high and their labour market is still expanding. They next review their cash rate target on Tuesday, November 4, 2025.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.99%, dipping another -1 bp from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3956/oz, down another -US$37 overnight.American oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.8 USc, and up +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$115,406 and down a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news expectations are gyrating around the upcoming US-China leaders meeting. Markets have high expectations and are pricing in a positive outcome. For US markets, this is relatively modest and a 'relief'. For Chinese markets, and Asian markets more generally, it is very positive.A surge in market euphoria could well bring a surge in commodity prices, and in turn, inflation. This will complicate the US Fed's Thursday decision - but they won't know the final outcome of the Xi-Trump meeting when they make their decision later this week and that is awkward for them.Even before the results of the key meeting are known, Chinese industrial firms' profits rose more than +20% in September from the same month a year ago amid ongoing policy measures to revive business and consumer sentiment. Private-sector earnings strengthened markedly, while losses among state-owned enterprises narrowed quickly.Meanwhile, the stutter China had in foreign direct investment in the April to June period also seems to be over. In September, they attracted +¥68 bln in FDI, more than the +¥61 bln in the same month of 2024. But that earlier hesitation still means they are running more than -10% lower than last year, and 2024 was the weakest year they had for foreign direct investment in more than a decade. It may be improving slightly, but they are still in a serious shadow.And we should probably note that the hesitation about relationships with the US are expanding. Countries may 'engage' with the US transactionally to hold on to trade links, but China is winning. This is clear from Indonesia ordering Chinese fighter jets for its air force, and other naval equipment.In the US the data isn't quite so positive, although you wouldn't know it from the Wall Street signals today. Despite 'improving', the Dallas Fed factory survey is still reporting negative overall conditions. New orders shrank less, and manufacturing conditions remained below average. Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened somewhat in October and optimism about the next six months waned. But prices and wage pressures eased, the survey showed.Over the weekend, the US released its September CPI inflation data and it rose to 3.0%, up from 2.9% in August. This was slightly less than the expected 3.1% but it is still its highest level since June 2024. Energy costs, food and rents came in higher than that but petrol prices were lower.One factor to watch is that the rate of increase in the past two months is closer to +4% on an annualised basis. The number reported today relies on the low increases they had in 2024 and February to May. When those months work their way out of the annual calculation, the higher pressure outside those periods will come into play.Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reported that Americans feel inflation is running at 4.6% and they downgraded their earlier confidence reading to now be -24% lower than year-ago levels.The internationally benchmarked PMI report for the US for October reported a strong start to the fourth quarter, with expansions in both the services (55.2) and factory sectors (52.2).If there is a relaxation of trade tensions after the China-US meeting, Australia could be a big beneficiary. And markets are starting to price that in.We should also probably note that the price of aluminium (or aluminum if you prefer) is rising fast again, back up to levels first reached in the pandemic spike. Causing this current surge is the price the Americans are prepared to pay because of their self-imposed tariffs, as producers avoid that market. Those American buyers are being hit twice.Also worth noting is a sudden rise in the price of sulfur (or sulphur if you prefer). Causing this spike is a fall in supply from some key oil producers (sulfur is a bi-product), when demand is rising for fertilisers.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.00%, dipping -1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3993/oz, down -US$118 overnight.American oil prices are -holding from yesterday at just over US$61.50/bbl, with the international Brent price still just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.7 USc, and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 87.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at USD$115,614 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

In this week's episode of the Market and Economic Wrap, Tumisho Grater, Multi-Manager Investment Analyst explores the shifting global economic landscape, highlighting the IMF's revised growth outlook, China's slowing GDP, and the US Fed's dovish stance amid labour market concerns. The discussion covers resilient US equities driven by AI optimism and strong earnings, record-breaking gold prices, and South Africa's ambitious R2.2 trillion energy infrastructure plan. Locally, inflation trends and currency movements are also unpacked, offering a comprehensive view of macroeconomic forces shaping markets. LinkedIn · YouTube

John Pasalis presents his latest data and top stories on Toronto area real estate in conversation with fellow agent Davin McMahon and our Move Smartly mortgage expert, David Larock - and you, our viewers, who join the discussion in our live chat!! This week, John and his team discuss the rise in Power of Sale listings and how Buyers Are Slowly Coming Back - But They're Still Cautious! Dave Larock, our mortgage expert, explains how rate cuts by the US Fed might lead to higher rates in Canada. As usual, our engaged viewers and listeners have plenty of consumer questions about what's next for their real estate moves, mortgage rates and more. Set-up a meeting with John Pasalis and his agents at Realosophy to discuss your own real estate questions privately: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn Sign up for our email list to be alerted to the next online market update to join our YouTube session live chat and ask your own Qs: https://www.movesmartly.com/monthly-public-webinar Today's show links: John's latest articles on the Toronto area real estate market are on realosophy.com https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/author/john-pasalis Dave Larock's latest weekly blog post on mortgage rates on MoveSmartly.com: https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/author/david-larock Contact Us: John Pasalis, President and Broker, Realosophy Realty, Toronto | Email: askjohn@movesmartly.com | X-Twitter: @JohnPasalis David Larock, Mortgage Broker and Analyst and Realtor | Email: dave@morplan.ca | X-Twitter: @Dave_at_IMP About This Show: The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada. You can also watch this and every episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please subscribe and leave us a positive rating on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from — thank you!

HEADLINE: Lessons from the Swiss National Bank: Risk-Taking, Exchange Rates, and Fiscal Responsibility GUEST NAME: John Cochrane SUMMARY: Economist John Cochrane analyzes the Swiss National Bank (SNB), noting it differs greatly from the US Federal Reserve by investing heavily in foreign stocks and bonds to manage the Swiss franc's exchange rate. The SNB's massive balance sheet carries risks accepted by Swiss taxpayers and the Cantons. Switzerland, being fiscally responsible (running no budget deficits), finds central banking easier. Cochrane advises that the US Fed should not be buying stocks or venturing into fiscal policy. 1890 SWISS

SHOW SCHEDULE 10-15--25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1964 ATLANTIC CITYCONVENTION HALL THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT CONGRESS.... 10-15--25 FIRST HOUR 9-915 HEADLINE: Obamacare Subsidies Trigger Government Shutdown Debate GUEST NAME: Michael Toth SUMMARY: Michael Toth explains that the current government shutdown debate centers on extending two expensive Biden-era Obamacare subsidies. These changes allow individuals earning over 400% of the federal poverty line to receive subsidies and provide 100% coverage for the near-poor. The original Obamacare cross-subsidy structure failed because young, healthy individuals found premiums too high. Toth advocates deregulation, such as allowing insurance companies to charge lower, risk-adjusted rates and enabling single business owners to use Professional Employer Organizations (PEOs) for cheaper coverage. 915-930 HEADLINE: Obamacare Subsidies Trigger Government Shutdown Debate GUEST NAME: Michael Toth SUMMARY: Michael Toth explains that the current government shutdown debate centers on extending two expensive Biden-era Obamacare subsidies. These changes allow individuals earning over 400% of the federal poverty line to receive subsidies and provide 100% coverage for the near-poor. The original Obamacare cross-subsidy structure failed because young, healthy individuals found premiums too high. Toth advocates deregulation, such as allowing insurance companies to charge lower, risk-adjusted rates and enabling single business owners to use Professional Employer Organizations (PEOs) for cheaper coverage. 930-945 HEADLINE: Hamas, Hostages, and Middle East Turmoil: Challenges to the Trump Ceasefire Plan GUEST NAME:Jonathan Schanzer SUMMARY: Jonathan Schanzer discusses complications in the Trump ceasefire plan, including Hamas delaying the return of deceased hostages to maintain leverage. The released prisoners, including potential Hamas leaders, raise concerns about where the organization's center of gravity will shift if they are deported to places like Turkey or Qatar. Schanzer views Turkey, an autocratic supporter of Hamas, as a problematic guarantor of the ceasefire. Internationally, Iran continues its nuclear program despite snapback sanctions, and al-Sharaa is meeting with Putin regarding Russian assets in Syria. 945-1000 HEADLINE: Hamas, Hostages, and Middle East Turmoil: Challenges to the Trump Ceasefire Plan GUEST NAME:Jonathan Schanzer SUMMARY: Jonathan Schanzer discusses complications in the Trump ceasefire plan, including Hamas delaying the return of deceased hostages to maintain leverage. The released prisoners, including potential Hamas leaders, raise concerns about where the organization's center of gravity will shift if they are deported to places like Turkey or Qatar. Schanzer views Turkey, an autocratic supporter of Hamas, as a problematic guarantor of the ceasefire. Internationally, Iran continues its nuclear program despite snapback sanctions, and al-Sharaa is meeting with Putin regarding Russian assets in Syria. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 HEADLINE: China's Predicament in the Middle East and Domestic Economic Instability GUEST NAME: General Blaine Holt SUMMARY: General Blaine Holt analyzes China's strategic challenges, noting Beijing is concerned about losing access to critical oil and gas resources as US leadership advances the Abraham Accords. China's previous regional deals, like the Saudi-Iran agreement, lacked substance compared to US business commitments. Holt suggests internal pressures might lead Iran toward the Accords. Domestically, China faces accelerating deflation and uncertainty regarding Xi Jinping's leadership due to four competing factions before the fourth plenum. 1015-1030 HEADLINE: South Korea's Descent into Authoritarianism and Persecution of Opposition GUEST NAME: Morse Tan SUMMARY: Morse Tan argues that South Korea is moving toward a "rising communist dictatorship" that oppresses political and religious figures. The indictment of the Unification Church leader and the targeting of the rightful President Yoon exemplify this trend. This persecution serves as an intimidation campaign, demonstrating the regime's disregard for the populace. Tan recommends the US implement active measures, including sanctions relating to a coup d'état and visa sanctions, while also pressing for greater military cooperation. 1030-1045 HEADLINE: Russian War Economy Stalls as Oil Prices Decline and Sanctions Bite GUEST NAME: Michael Bernstam SUMMARY: Michael Bernstam reports that the Russian economy is struggling as global oil prices decline and sanctions increase transportation costs, leading to a $13 to $14 per barrel discount on Russian oil. The "military Keynesianism" economy is exhausted, resulting in staff cuts across industrial sectors. Forecasts indicate contraction in late 2025 and 2026, with the IMF lowering its growth projection for 2025 to 0.6%. Russia is avoiding sanctions by routing payments through neighbors like Kyrgyzstan, who have become major financial hubs. 1045-1100 HEADLINE: Lessons from the Swiss National Bank: Risk-Taking, Exchange Rates, and Fiscal Responsibility GUEST NAME: John Cochrane SUMMARY: Economist John Cochrane analyzes the Swiss National Bank (SNB), noting it differs greatly from the US Federal Reserve by investing heavily in foreign stocks and bonds to manage the Swiss franc's exchange rate. The SNB's massive balance sheet carries risks accepted by Swiss taxpayers and the Cantons. Switzerland, being fiscally responsible (running no budget deficits), finds central banking easier. Cochrane advises that the US Fed should not be buying stocks or venturing into fiscal policy. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 HEADLINE: China Retaliates Against Dutch Chipmaker Seizure Amid European Fragmentation GUEST NAME:Theresa Fallon SUMMARY: Theresa Fallon discusses China imposing export controls on Nexperia after the Dutch government seized control of the chipmaker, which was owned by China's Wingtech. The Dutch acted due to fears the Chinese owner would strip the technology and equipment, despite Nexperia producing low-quality chips for cars. Fallon notes Europe needs a better chip policy but struggles to speak with one voice, as fragmented policy allows China to drive wedges and weaken the EU. 1115-1130 HEADLINE: China's Economic Slowdown, Deflation, and the Spectre of Japanification GUEST NAME: Andrew Collier SUMMARY: Andrew Collier discusses China's economic woes, characterized by persistent deflation, with the CPI down 0.3% (6 out of 9 months in the red) and the PPI down for 36 straight months. This environment raises concerns about "Japanification"—a multi-decade slowdown after a property crash. Major structural changes to stimulate consumer consumption are unlikely at the upcoming Communist Party plenum, as the system favors state investment. The property market collapse means foreign investment is leaving, and Collier suggests the economy may not bottom until 2027 or 2028. 1130-1145 HEADLINE: SpaceX Starship Success, Private Space Dominance, and Government Inaction GUEST NAME: Bob Zimmerman SUMMARY: Bob Zimmerman describes SpaceX's Starship Super Heavy 11th test flight as "remarkable," highlighting successful booster reuse and controlled re-entry despite missing tiles. He asserts that private enterprise, like SpaceX, runs the "real American space program" aimed at Mars colonization, outpacing government efforts. In contrast, European projects like Callisto, proposed in 2015, demonstrate government "inaction." JPL is also laying off staff following the cancellation of the Mars sample return project, forcing organizations like Lowell Observatory to seek private funding. 1145-1200 HEADLINE: SpaceX Starship Success, Private Space Dominance, and Government Inaction GUEST NAME: Bob Zimmerman SUMMARY: Bob Zimmerman describes SpaceX's Starship Super Heavy 11th test flight as "remarkable," highlighting successful booster reuse and controlled re-entry despite missing tiles. He asserts that private enterprise, like SpaceX, runs the "real American space program" aimed at Mars colonization, outpacing government efforts. In contrast, European projects like Callisto, proposed in 2015, demonstrate government "inaction." JPL is also laying off staff following the cancellation of the Mars sample return project, forcing organizations like Lowell Observatory to seek private funding. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 HEADLINE: Commodity Market Trends and UK's Lack of Risk Appetite for AI Innovation GUEST NAME: Simon Constable SUMMARY: Simon Constable notes that data center expansion for AI is increasing prices for copper (up 15%) and steel (up 14%). He points out that the UK lags significantly behind the US in building new AI data centers (170 vs. 5,000+) due to a lack of risk appetite, insufficient wealth, and poor marketing of new ideas. Separately, Constable discusses the collapse of a UK China spying trial because the prior government failed to officially classify China as a national security threat during the alleged offenses. 1215-1230 HEADLINE: Commodity Market Trends and UK's Lack of Risk Appetite for AI Innovation GUEST NAME: Simon Constable SUMMARY: Simon Constable notes that data center expansion for AI is increasing prices for copper (up 15%) and steel (up 14%). He points out that the UK lags significantly behind the US in building new AI data centers (170 vs. 5,000+) due to a lack of risk appetite, insufficient wealth, and poor marketing of new ideas. Separately, Constable discusses the collapse of a UK China spying trial because the prior government failed to officially classify China as a national security threat during the alleged offenses. 1230-1245 HEADLINE: AI Regulation Debate: Premature Laws vs. Emerging Norms GUEST NAME: Kevin Frazier SUMMARY: Kevin Frazier critiques the legislative rush to regulate AI, arguing that developing norms might be more effective than premature laws. He notes that bills like California's AB 1047, which demands factual accuracy, fundamentally misunderstand AI's generative nature. Imposing vague standards, as seen in New York's RAISE Act, risks chilling innovation and preventing widespread benefits, like affordable legal or therapy tools. Frazier emphasizes that AI policy should be grounded in empirical data rather than speculative fears. 1245-100 AM HEADLINE: AI Regulation Debate: Premature Laws vs. Emerging Norms GUEST NAME: Kevin Frazier SUMMARY: Kevin Frazier critiques the legislative rush to regulate AI, arguing that developing norms might be more effective than premature laws. He notes that bills like California's AB 1047, which demands factual accuracy, fundamentally misunderstand AI's generative nature. Imposing vague standards, as seen in New York's RAISE Act, risks chilling innovation and preventing widespread benefits, like affordable legal or therapy tools. Frazier emphasizes that AI policy should be grounded in empirical data rather than speculative fears.

The ASX200 was up about 0.9 % in afternoon trade, close to the 9 000‑point psychological barrier, driven chiefly by a 1.2 % rise in the financials sector as major banks posted stronger earnings and dividend upgrades. Materials also added strength after softer Chinese inflation data, while energy fell on lower oil prices. Looking ahead, market focus will shift to US bank results, the US Fed’s upcoming rate decision, and Australia’s jobs report due tomorrow, which could steer the RBA’s policy path. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Nifty ended the session at 25,323, up 0.71%, as optimism returned to Dalal Street. Hopes of a US Fed rate cut and signs of a potential India–US trade deal reignited buying interest across key sectors.But can this momentum hold as global negotiations unfold?In this episode, Sanket Bendre breaks down what's driving the rally, how policy cues are shaping investor sentiment, and why Power Mech Projects could be the dark horse to watch in the coming days.

Market news for October 15, 2025: Asian markets rally as US Fed signals another rate cut; Gold hits record high on Fed rate-cut bets, US-China trade woes; CNMC Goldmine up over 400% this year on gold rush; Indian rupee rebounds on US trade hopes. Synopsis: Market Focus Daily is a closing bell roundup by The Business Times that looks at the day’s market movements and news from Singapore and the region. Written and hosted by: Emily Liu (emilyliu@sph.com.sg) Produced and edited by: Chai Pei Chieh & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media --- Follow Market Focus Daily and rate us on: Channel: bt.sg/btmktfocus Amazon: bt.sg/mfam Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/mfap Spotify: bt.sg/mfsp YouTube Music: bt.sg/mfyt Website: bt.sg/mktfocus Feedback to: btpodcasts@sph.com.sg Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks BT Correspondents at: bt.sg/btcobt BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/podcasts BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Nifty ended the session at 25,323, up 0.71%, as optimism returned to Dalal Street. Hopes of a US Fed rate cut and signs of a potential India–US trade deal reignited buying interest across key sectors.But can this momentum hold as global negotiations unfold?In this episode, Sanket Bendre breaks down what's driving the rally, how policy cues are shaping investor sentiment, and why Power Mech Projects could be the dark horse to watch in the coming days.

The Nifty ended the session at 25,323, up 0.71%, as optimism returned to Dalal Street. Hopes of a US Fed rate cut and signs of a potential India–US trade deal reignited buying interest across key sectors.But can this momentum hold as global negotiations unfold?In this episode, Sanket Bendre breaks down what's driving the rally, how policy cues are shaping investor sentiment, and why Power Mech Projects could be the dark horse to watch in the coming days.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news both Fed boss Powell, and the IMF are increasingly concerned about financial stability.But first up today, there was a dairy Pulse auction overnight for milk powders. Prices for both SMP and WMP dipped -0.5% in USD terms, extending the easing we have noted recently. But the exchange rate fell faster, so in NZD both commodities were up about +1%.But the key economic influence today is the overnight speech from US Fed boss Powell. He (politely) bemoaned the lack of key current data, but is clearly worried about what is happening in the giant US labour market. He sees payroll about to shrink, not only because of the immigration crackdown, but softening economic activity and business hesitation due to tariff costs and uncertainty. He also said the Fed will likely end its reductions in its balance sheet because liquidity conditions are tightening. His speech sets the Fed up for defensive actions ahead of what they expect are growing economic risks. Basically, they are ready to cut rates.Financial markets noted his caution, and while they didn't retreat, they aren't as gung-ho as yesterday or last week either, despite the rate-cut implication.“My antenna goes up when things like that happen,” Jamie Dimon, said on a call with analysts about stresses like the First Brands debacle. “I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more. Everyone should be forewarned on this one.”In the absence of official data while their shutdown extends, trade data is filling the gap. Today the NFIB Optimism survey came in mich lower than expected, and a fall was expected. Small business owners are increasingly frustrated with supply chain disruptions and are seeing inflation emerging in what they are paying, and having a struggle passing on those costs as sales levels turn soft.Across the Pacific, China has set an ambitious new vehicles sales target for 2025 of 32.3 mln units, far and away the world's largest market (The US is second at about 18 mln vehicles.) They will likely hit that target. In September, sales were the strongest of the year at over 3.2 mln in the month, almost +15% higher than the same month in 2024. NEVs accounted for 1.6 mln, up be almost +25% from a year ago. This is now a globally significant sector driving both the Chinese and global economy.Singapore was bracing for a +2.0% year-on-year Q3-2025 GDP expansion, down from the +4.5% expansion they had in Q2-2025. But they actually got a +2.9% expansion in the September quarter. Services and construction did more heavy lifting there than was assumed when all the focus was on the troubles their factory sector was having.In Australia, the NAB Business Confidence Index rose tin September from August's three-month low, staying above the long-run average. Business conditions were unchanged, as stronger sales and profits were offset by weaker employment. However, forward orders slipped into contraction indicating softer demand ahead.Through all these global changes, the IMF is trying to make sense of how this is affecting the world's economy. They are somewhat confused by "complex forces". Their World Economic Outlook update projects overall economic growth to slow to +3.2% in 2025 and +3.1% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024. They see the world adjusting to rising protectionism and fragmentation and we are now below pre-policy-shift levels. American growth is now expected lower at +2.0% in 2025 and similar in 2026, while China's economy is projected to slow to +4.8% and +4.2% in 2026. Europe is forecast to expand +1.2% in 2025 and +1.1% in 2026, Japan by +1.1% and +0.6%, Australia by +1.8% and +2.1%. Meanwhile, global inflation is expected to continue easing, though trends will vary across countries, above target in the US, with risks tilted to the upside, while staying subdued elsewhere.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.03% and down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4145/oz, up +US$35 from yesterday.American oil prices are -US$1 lower at just over US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$62.50/bbl. That is changed by lower demand and higher supply expectations.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.2 USc, down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we are dow -30 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.8, do2n -10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,593 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The US Fed chair warns of a weaker jobs market amid a shutdown data blindspot. The RBA Board leaves its options open. Australian consumer confidence drops to a 12-month low. And New Zealand's housing market goes sideways. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty reviews Malaysia's 2026 Government budget and fiscal targets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

#stockmarketnews #goldprice #titanstock #tatamotorsshare #tcsresults #indianeconomy #softbank #jlr Welcome to today's Daily Market Wrap! We break down the biggest global and Indian stock market news affecting your portfolio.MARKET MOVERS: Gold price shatters the $4,000 milestone for the first time ever, driven by geopolitical fears and anticipated US Fed rate cuts. Silver is also soaring.STOCK FOCUS: Titan Company shares surged after reporting 20% growth in consumer businesses for Q2 FY26. Conversely, Tata Motors stock dipped following weak wholesale volume (down 24%) at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) due to cyber incident impacts. Senco Gold reports 16% retail revenue growth.CORPORATE DEALS: SoftBank acquires ABB's robotics division in a massive $5.4 billion deal. Healthcare stocks like Yatharth and Aster DM surge on revised CGHS rates.ECONOMY: India announces a ₹7,350 crore scheme for rare-earth magnet production. CPI forecast is easing to 1.2% due to food deflation. Earnings season kicks off Thursday with TCS results!00:00 Start00:16 US market update03:16 Bank of England warns of sharp correction if...04:46 Yen Weakest Amid Trade Frictions and Auto Slump07:37 Gold Surges Past $4,000 Milestone09:48 Govt Plans ₹7,350 Cr Scheme for Rare-Earth Magnets10:47 September CPI Forecast at 1.2% on Food Deflation11:19 IT companies results12:47 Senco Gold H1 Retail Revenue Jumps 16%13:28 Titan Q2 Consumer Business Grows 20%14:09 SoftBank Acquires ABB Robotics for $5.4 Billion15:37 RateGain partners with Sunrise Airways16:12 Concor Q2 Throughput Jumps 10.5%16:50 Tata Motors Slips on Weak JLR Q2 Sales17:46 Knowledge SectionLEGAL DISCLAIMER: Use of this information is at the user's own risk. The Company and its directors, associates and employees will not be liable for any loss or liability incurred to the user due to investments made or decisions taken based on the information provided herein. The investment discussed or views expressed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their investment advisors to determine the merit, risks and suitability of recommendation. Past performance is not a guarantee for future performance or future results. Information herein is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The images used may be copyright of the company or third party. As a condition to using the services, the user agrees to the terms of use of the website and the services. DISCLOSURES UNDER SEBI (RESEARCH ANALYST) REGULATIONS, 2014:Yadnya Academy Pvt. Ltd. (InvestYadnya) is registered with SEBI under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 with registration no. INH000008349.Disclosure with regard to ownership and material conflicts of interest1. Neither Research Analyst nor the entity nor his associates or relatives have any financial interest in the subject Company;2. Neither Research Analyst nor the entity nor its associates or relatives have actual / beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject Company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of public appearance;3. Neither Research Analyst nor the entity nor its associates or his relatives have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance. Disclosure with regard to receipt of Compensation1. The Research Entity and its associates have not received compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months.2. The subject company is not or was not a client during the twelve months preceding the date of recommendation.

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint.. I'm Nelson John and here are today's top stories. Trump's Gaza Peace Gambit Trump dropped a 20-point peace plan at the White House with Netanyahu by his side. Israel accepted instantly, Hamas is silent. The plan: all Oct 7 hostages freed in 72 hrs, Israel releases 2,000+ prisoners, grim body-for-body swaps, Israeli withdrawal only after Hamas fully disarms. Gaza gets a temporary technocratic govt — no Hamas. Trump wants a global “Board of Peace” led by figures like Tony Blair. Bold but controversial: Israel keeps a security buffer inside Gaza. For Hamas, it's not a truce, it's political extinction. India–Bhutan Rail Links ₹4,033 crore for two new lines linking Bhutan's Gelephu & Samtse with India's vast network. 90 km track, 125 bridges, completion in four years. Bhutan finally gets rail access to ports, Nepal, Bangladesh. Gelephu is key — it's becoming an autonomous economic hub. India backs it fully, countering China's growing Himalayan footprint. Gandhi Statue Vandalized in London Days before his 155th birth anniversary, vandals defaced Gandhi's memorial in Tavistock Square, a peace garden. India's High Commission condemned the act as an attack on Gandhi's legacy. The timing shows this wasn't random — it was deliberate, and deeply symbolic. Arattai: India's WhatsApp Challenger Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal joined Zoho's homegrown messaging app Arattai, calling it “Swadeshi.” With encryption and data staying in India, it signals a push for digital self-reliance. The question: can it dent WhatsApp's billion-user lead? Will RBI Follow Fed's Cut? The US Fed cut rates by 25 bps. India's RBI meets Oct 1. Experts are split: domestic inflation keeps RBI cautious, but Fed cuts may open a small window. For investors: if RBI cuts, banks, autos, and real estate could rally. #Trump #Gaza #MiddleEastPeace #IndiaBhutan #Geopolitics #Gandhi #London #Arattai #DigitalIndia #RBI #FederalReserve #Markets #GlobalFinance Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China will maintain an independent and accommodative monetary policy amid the unfolding global rate cut cycle, with future adjustments to be determined by domestic priorities and incoming data, officials and analysts said on Monday.官方及分析人士于周一表示，在当前全球降息周期逐步展开的背景下，中国将继续实施独立且稳健宽松的货币政策，未来政策调整将依据国内发展重点与实际经济数据来确定。Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, said on Monday that China's monetary policy will remain independent and data-driven, following the US Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate by 25 basis points last week.中国人民银行行长潘功胜在周一指出，继上周美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点后，中国货币政策仍将坚持独立性与数据驱动原则。"China's monetary policy adheres to the principle of staying oriented to domestic needs while balancing internal and external factors," Pan said at a news conference, adding that future decisions will be based on macroeconomic conditions and evolving circumstances.潘功胜在新闻发布会上强调：“中国货币政策始终坚持以国内需求为主导，同时统筹兼顾内外部均衡。”他进一步表示，未来货币政策决策将立足宏观经济形势与实际情况变化来制定。Citing international central banking practice, Pan said the PBOC will follow a data-based approach to policy adjustment, and make comprehensive use of multiple tools to ensure ample liquidity and guide financing costs lower.提及国际央行通行做法时，潘功胜表示，中国人民银行会遵循数据导向的政策调整思路，综合运用多种货币政策工具，确保市场流动性合理充裕，并引导融资成本持续下行。Such efforts are aimed at bolstering consumption, expanding investment and consolidating economic recovery, Pan said, stressing that "China's current monetary policy stance is supportive."他指出，这些举措旨在提振消费、扩大有效投资，巩固当前经济回升向好态势，同时明确“中国当前的货币政策立场具备充分的支持性”。Also on Monday, the PBOC released the latest loan prime rates — the market-based lending benchmarks — which remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. The one-year LPR stood at 3 percent, while the over-five-year LPR came in at 3.5 percent.同样在周一，中国人民银行公布了最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）——作为市场基础性贷款利率基准，此次LPR已连续第四个月维持不变。其中，1年期LPR保持3%不变，5年期以上LPR则稳定在3.5%水平。The steady rates were in line with expectations, as the policy rate of seven-day reverse repos has also held stable. Analysts said the third quarter has been a period of observing monetary policy effects, even as the US Fed rate cut provides more policy room for China by potentially ushering in a global rate cut cycle.此次LPR保持稳定符合市场预期，此前7天期逆回购操作利率亦持续维持不变。分析人士认为，尽管美联储降息可能推动全球进入降息周期，为中国货币政策提供更广阔操作空间，但第三季度仍是观察前期货币政策实施效果的关键阶段。Looking ahead, Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, said credit growth remained subdued and property sales became weaker in the third quarter, underscoring the need for interest rate cuts to lower financing costs.展望未来，中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，第三季度我国信贷增长态势偏缓，商品房销售表现进一步走弱，这凸显出通过降息降低市场主体融资成本的必要性。Ming said that the narrowing net interest margin of commercial banks suggests that deposit rates may need to decline before a cut in LPRs can take place, adding that rate cut decisionmakers should also pay attention to the impact on investor sentiment in the stock market.明明指出，商业银行净息差持续收窄，这意味着若要下调LPR，可能需要先推动存款利率下行。此外，政策制定者在作出降息决策时，还需关注其对股票市场投资者情绪的潜在影响。During Monday's news conference, heads from China's top financial regulators also reported the achievements made by the country's financial sector over the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25).在周一的新闻发布会上，我国金融监管部门负责人还介绍了“十四五”规划（2021-2025年）期间我国金融业取得的发展成就。Pan said total assets of China's banking sector reached nearly 470 trillion yuan ($66 trillion) by the end of June, the largest in the world, while the country's stock and bond markets ranked second globally in size.潘功胜透露，截至今年6月末，我国银行业总资产规模接近470万亿元（约合66万亿美元），规模位居全球首位；股票市场与债券市场规模则均位列全球第二。Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at the conference that equity and bond financing on the exchange markets totaled 57.5 trillion yuan in the past five years, raising the share of direct financing to 31.6 percent, up by 2.8 percentage points from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-20).中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清在会上表示，过去五年，我国交易所市场股票与债券融资总额达57.5万亿元，直接融资占比提升至31.6%，较“十三五”规划（2016-2020年）期末提高2.8个百分点。Technology-related stocks now account for over one-fourth of the market capitalization of the A-share market, far surpassing the combined weight of financial and real estate sectors, while dividends and share buybacks reached 10.6 trillion yuan in the past five-year period, more than twice the combined proceeds from IPOs and refinancing, Wu said.吴清指出，目前A股市场中科技相关板块市值占比已超过四分之一，远超金融与房地产板块市值之和；过去五年，A股市场现金分红与股份回购总额达10.6万亿元，是同期首次公开发行（IPO）与再融资募集资金总和的两倍多。Looking ahead, Wu said the commission will advance reforms of the STAR Market and ChiNext regarding IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, and corporate restructurings to amplify support for innovation, improve listed companies' disclosure quality, foster a culture that values and rewards investors, and enhance market regulation and risk-prevention frameworks.对于未来工作方向，吴清表示，证监会将推进科创板、创业板在首次公开发行（IPO）、并购重组等领域的改革，进一步加大对科技创新的支持力度；同时将提升上市公司信息披露质量，培育尊重投资者、回报投资者的市场文化，并健全市场监管与风险防范体系。Wu added that long-horizon assessments of funds will be reinforced, while cross-border investment and financing will be made more convenient to attract more capital inflow.他补充道，监管部门还将强化对基金产品的长期业绩考核，进一步便利跨境投融资活动，吸引更多境外资本流入我国资本市场。Zhu Hexin, administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that overseas institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan worth of onshore stocks, bonds, deposits and loans by the end of July.国家外汇管理局局长朱鹤新表示，截至今年7月末，境外机构与个人持有境内股票、债券、存款及贷款等各类资产规模合计超过10万亿元。Official data showed that foreign investors now hold about 3.4 trillion yuan of A shares, while 269 Chinese companies are listed overseas.官方数据显示，目前境外投资者持有A股规模约3.4万亿元，共有269家中国企业在境外市场上市。accommodativeadj.融通的，适应性强的/əˈkɒmədeɪtɪv/liquidityn.流动性；资产变现能力/lɪˈkwɪdəti/marginn.差额，利润/ˈmɑːdʒɪn/

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are likely to get a lesson this week reconfirming that equity markets all look for short-term profit hits and are now setting prices on these short-term factors. But bond markets are much more focused on risks 10-30 years ahead and their signals are diverging markedly.This coming week however will largely feature reactions to last week's big events - the US Fed positioning and rate cut, and the awful NZ Q2-2025 GDP data.Here we will be watching for more fallout from that, after the NZD got marked down sharply. Will markets assess that the June result will be repeated in Q3? After all we are now only nine days from the end of Q3 and the appearance of 'better data' has been sparse and perhaps only in the last week or so. And on Thursday we will get an update of household net worth, but it will be year-old data. Much more current will be Thursday's results announcement from Fonterra.In Australia, they will also release household net worth data, on Friday, but for March this year. They will get PMI updates as well.Globally, the focus will briefly turn to New York for what is expected to be a turbulent moment for the UN with the US already barring some leaders from attending. New York time as the home of the General Assembly may be coming to an end.But economically, there will be many PMI updates out this week. The US will release its PCE data and another Q2-GDP update. And Fed speakers will all be out giving context to last week's rate cut decision. Switzerland and Sweden will be among those reviewing their policy interest rates. And later today, China will review its Loan Prime rates, although no change is expected.China released its August year-to-date foreign direct investment data over the weekend. They said they only attracted ¥507 bln in net foreign investment in those eight months. They said they attracted ¥467 bln in the seven months to July. So that means they gained a net +¥39 bln in August alone and that is a very low +US$5.5 bln and that is only one third of the August 2024 gain. Basically foreign direct investment into China from all sources is close to dead in the water.This doesn't mean that China's economic expansion won't be good in 2025 (over +5%). But it does point out how the two big powers are isolating themselves, with cross-border investment and economic connections all retreating.A recent example is that China's new iron ore buying monopoly has moved to shut out a key Australian blend from BHP. They have other options and are using their heft to try and bring BHP and Australia into line.Separately, Japan's inflation eased to 2.7% in August from 3.1% in July, the level since October 2024. There was a notable slowing in the rise in rice prices, enabling food price inflation to ease to 'only' 7.2% in August from a year ago. Overall prices were up +0.8% in the month with food prices up just +0.3% for the month.Japan's central bank announced the results of its policy rate review late on Friday and as expected left it unchanged at 0.5% at Friday's. This came amid the political uncertainty around the resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba. They also said that it will sell its holdings of exchange-traded funds and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) to the market. Here is their decision.Germany said its producer prices fell an outsized -2.2% in August from a year ago, a deflation sign they will not welcome and extends their deflationary pressure that started in July 2023. But most of that is coming from the lower cost of imported energy with local producer prices basically unchanged.Canada said its August retail sales rose +1%, more than offsetting its July dip. But it isn't clear how much of that is inflation related. But financial markets reacted positively, seeing consumer 'resilience' in the data. (One more -25 bps rate cut is expected in Canada before the end of the year.)The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, up +1 bp from Saturday to be up +7 bps from a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3684/oz, up +US$3 from Saturday. That is up +US$36 from a week ago. Silver had another spurt over the weekend, now up over US$43/oz, a weekly gain of +US$1.American oil prices are little-changed at just over US$62.50/bbl and back to where they were a week ago, with the international Brent price still just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday although down a full -1c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are just under 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.8, unchanged from Saturday but down -100 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$115,509 and very little-changed from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just under +/- 0.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The US Fed makes its first play on rates for the year, but should we expect the floodgates to open? ASIC Chair Joe Longo won’t seek reappointment to his role, due to expire in May next year. Can salary packaging be a way to get around the pitfalls of bracket creep? And the ASX closed the week higher, with Wall Street excited for what’s to come. Interview with: Mike Daly, salary packaging expert from Smart Email us your thoughts to moneynews@nine.com.au Hosted by: Tom StoreySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Nifty closed at 25,327, down 0.38%, as investors weighed the US Fed's 25 bps rate cut to a range of 4–4.25%. The Fed also noted that growth has moderated in H1, adding to the uncertainty.For India, a softer Fed stance could unlock global liquidity and spark risk appetite — but will that be enough to reverse today's weak close?In this episode, Sanket Bendre breaks down what the Fed's move could mean for the market and why Redington is a stock to watch closely.

The Nifty closed at 25,327, down 0.38%, as investors weighed the US Fed's 25 bps rate cut to a range of 4–4.25%. The Fed also noted that growth has moderated in H1, adding to the uncertainty.For India, a softer Fed stance could unlock global liquidity and spark risk appetite — but will that be enough to reverse today's weak close?In this episode, Sanket Bendre breaks down what the Fed's move could mean for the market and why Redington is a stock to watch closely.

The Nifty closed at 25,327, down 0.38%, as investors weighed the US Fed's 25 bps rate cut to a range of 4–4.25%. The Fed also noted that growth has moderated in H1, adding to the uncertainty.For India, a softer Fed stance could unlock global liquidity and spark risk appetite — but will that be enough to reverse today's weak close?In this episode, Sanket Bendre breaks down what the Fed's move could mean for the market and why Redington is a stock to watch closely.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc

18 Sep 2025. The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter point and the UAE Central Bank immediately followed, lowering the base rate to 4.15%. We ask economist Dan Richards of Emirates NBD what it means for borrowing, saving, and investing here in the UAE. Plus, Majid Al Futtaim has opened a supermarket just for kids, we speak to their CEO of Retail about the concept. And Sky Kurtz, the “Berry King” of Pure Harvest, joins us to reveal two new collaborations as demand for local produce continues to rise.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this edition, we have two interesting interviews - economist Kaushik Basu argues that closer India-China engagement is necessary even as India competes with its neighbour and Abakkus Asset Manager founder Sunil Singhania tells us that India Inc must shift its focus from margin protection to growth. Also find reportage on India's market cap surge, why US Fed rate cuts are unlikely to draw FPIs to India, Infra.Market's funding round and how GenZ is powering spiritual and cultural tourism this festive season.

The US Fed has cut rates for the first time in 2025, while Australia’s unemployment numbers suggest we might be waiting longer for our next cut.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The market fell in a day of big financial news, as the US Fed cut interest rates for the first time this year, and ADNOC pulled out of its takeover deal for Santos.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nifty ended the day at 25,423, up 0.37%, lifted by the US Fed's 25 bps rate cut and optimism over a possible India–US trade deal.But the question is—does this rate cut mark the start of a stronger uptrend, or will trade talks decide the real direction?In this episode, Sanket Bendre unpacks today's drivers and why Apollo Micro System is the stock to keep close watch on.

Market news for September 18, 2025: Japan's Nikkei closes above 45,000 for first time on tech boost, Fed decision; Chinese tech stocks rally after China tells companies to stop buying Nvidia’s repurposed AI chip; New Thai government considering measures to stabilise Baht. Synopsis: Market Focus Daily is a closing bell roundup by The Business Times that looks at the day’s market movements and news from Singapore and the region. Written and hosted by: Emily Liu (emilyliu@sph.com.sg) Produced and edited by: Chai Pei Chieh & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media --- Follow Market Focus Daily and rate us on: Channel: bt.sg/btmktfocus Amazon: bt.sg/mfam Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/mfap Spotify: bt.sg/mfsp YouTube Music: bt.sg/mfyt Website: bt.sg/mktfocus Feedback to: btpodcasts@sph.com.sg Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks BT Correspondents at: bt.sg/btcobt BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/podcasts BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US Fed will deliver its most important rate cut decision overnight, with expectations of a drop of at least 25 basis points, and as much as 50 basis points.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nifty looks set to wrap up the week on a strong note after seven straight sessions of gains, with GIFT Nifty signaling a firm start and global markets buoyed by rising expectations of a US Fed rate cut next week. In today's episode we track all the big movers—Infosys after announcing its biggest-ever Rs 18,000-crore share buyback, SEBI board meet agenda, the August inflation print that may break a nine-month downtrend, and the government's two-day PSU bank ‘Manthan' meet where consolidation and AI adoption are on the agenda. Tune in for all this and more in today's Market Minutes — your morning podcast bringing you the top stories to kickstart your trading day, from stocks in the news to macro trends and global market cues. Tune in for all this and more in today's Market Minutes — your morning podcast

As Fed governor Lisa Cook fights to block President Trump from firing her, a first legal hearing on the matter ends without a ruling. But with ongoing tensions and concerns over political meddling, who would want the next Fed chair job when the role becomes vacant next year? We speak to a former regional Fed president who says he's up for the job.Canada's economy shrinks much more than expected amid trade disputes with the US. An economist from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce weighs in on whether it might improve any time soon.And as a Chinese property giant's shares are removed from a major stock market, is the golden era for Chinese real estate well and truly over?

In today's episode on 28th August 2025, we tell you about the silent, yet most important, change in the US Fed's stance.

The Israeli military says in its initial report about the attack on the Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza that it was not targetting journalists but a Hamas camera. Twenty people died in the attack, among them five journalists. Most of the casualties were caused by the second strike which came ten minutes after the first. Also, US Fed governor Lisa Cook says she'll sue President Trump for ordering her dismissal, and Taylor Swift announces her engagement to NFL star Travis Kelce. The Global News Podcast brings you the breaking news you need to hear, as it happens. Listen for the latest headlines and current affairs from around the world. Politics, economics, climate, business, technology, health – we cover it all with expert analysis and insight. Get the news that matters, delivered twice a day on weekdays and daily at weekends, plus special bonus episodes reacting to urgent breaking stories. Follow or subscribe now and never miss a moment. Get in touch: globalpodcast@bbc.co.uk

Bitcoin fell below $113,000 as investors braced for Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech that could set the US Fed's path on interest rate cuts.~This episode is sponsored by Gemini & Tangem~Sign up for The Gemini Credit Card and get an extra $50 in crypto!➜ https://bit.ly/GeminiPBNTangem ➜ https://bit.ly/TangemPBNUse Code: "PBN" for Additional Discounts!00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: Tangem00:50 Fear & Greed02:00 CNBC: Are people just taking profits?04:00 More pain coming04:45 Polymarket05:25 Sponsor: Gemini06:00 Powell under pressure07:25 Bankruptcy filings08:15 David Zervos08:35 David Zervos: Policy is too restrictive10:40 Bitcoin ETF outflows12:05 ETH lows in?12:30 New ETH treasury companies14:15 Charts: Price targets15:50 Outro#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum~More Pain Coming?

Crypto News: BlackRock Bitcoin, Ether ETFs buy $1B as BTC price mostly fills CME gap. US Fed to end oversight program for banks' crypto activities. Wellgistics debuts XRP payments for independent US pharmacies. Show Sponsor -

31 Jul 2025. So what’s next for rate cuts and what it means for us? We ask economist Daniel Richards. Plus, ADNOC Drilling posts a record-breaking H1, CFO Youssef Salem joins us live. Saudi budget airline flyadeal releases fresh metrics, we speak to the CEO. And it’s the final day for UAE businesses to file late corporate tax returns without facing fines, tax lawyer Nirav Rajput explains what you need to know.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rain Storms and Purple Rain Warning Lai apologizes for recall defeat and vows support for August 23 votes Government to spend NT$100bn on flood control US Fed keeps interest rates steady More killings in Gaza as people seek food -- Hosting provided by SoundOn

AIB's Senior Economist John Fahey and AIB Treasury's Mark McKevitt discuss the current finance markets, the future impact of tariffs, the recent changes in sterling with Bank of England rate cuts, and central bank rates with no changes in the ECB and US Fed.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Tel Aviv and Tehran trade missiles as Trump weighs military action "Tel Aviv and Tehran continue to exchange missile salvos on the seventh day of escalating conflict, as Israeli pressure mounts on US President Donald Trump to intervene. Trump has reportedly approved military plans but has yet to decide whether to authorise an attack on Iran. Meanwhile, dozens of protesters gathered outside the White House, opposing another US military intervention in the Middle East. Only 16 percent of Americans support US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, according to a YouGov poll. Israel launched strikes on Iran on Friday, targeting military positions and nuclear sites, killing senior officials, scientists, and hundreds of civilians. Iran responded with a barrage of missiles aimed at key Israeli positions." Putin: Iran's uranium sites intact despite Israeli strikes "More from the conflict between Israel and Iran... Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Iran's underground uranium sites remain untouched despite fierce Israeli airstrikes, as Iranian society rallies behind its leadership. Speaking in St. Petersburg, Putin urged a balanced resolution — protecting Iran's right to peaceful nuclear power and Israel's right to security. With US President Trump weighing intervention and Iranians fleeing the capital, Putin revealed he had held direct talks with Trump and Netanyahu, stressing diplomacy over escalation." Trump and Pakistan's Munir meet to discuss regional peace, trade "US President Donald Trump praised Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for playing a pivotal role in averting a war with nuclear-armed India. Meeting privately in Washington, the two discussed regional tensions, including Iran and potential trade deals. Trump credited both Munir and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for de-escalating recent hostilities, calling their efforts “extremely influential.” The meeting marks a renewed tie between the US and Pakistan amid heightened tensions in South Asia and the Middle East." Rescue teams search as 700+ missing in Nigeria floods "More than seven-hundred people remain missing three weeks after devastating flash floods struck Niger state in central Nigeria, officials say. At least two-hundred-and-seven-bodies have been recovered, with four-hundred-homes destroyed and over three-thousand-residents displaced. Rescue teams continue their urgent search amid fears the toll could rise. Nigeria's rainy season, worsened by climate change and poor infrastructure, is expected to bring more flooding, threatening millions across the country. " US Fed holds interest rates, warns of economic uncertainty "The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady between four-point-twentyfive percent and four-point-fifty percent after its two-day meeting, signalling two rate cuts later this year. Despite its cautious stance, President Trump lashed out, calling Fed Chair Jerome Powell “stupid” for not lowering rates faster. The Fed also lowered its 2025 growth forecast to one-point-four percent while raising inflation and unemployment projections, underscoring economic uncertainties amid ongoing tariff pressures. Officials remain watchful, balancing risks in a volatile landscape."

19 Jun 2025. The US Fed and UAE Central Bank have both held interest rates steady. We hear from Fed Chair Jay Powell - and get local reaction from Emirates NBD’s Ed Bell. Plus, Microsoft says AI won’t fix the “infinite workday” unless we change how we work. We speak to Zubin Chagpar about what needs to happen. And as the school year ends, we get the education sector’s report card from Which School Advisor. Finally, why are billboard prices soaring across Dubai? We ask ARN’s Josh Busteed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

MS-13 terrorist and human trafficker Kilmar Armando Abrego-Garcia is BACK in the US!

As gold prices reach new all-time highs, Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist Amy Gower discusses whether the rally is sustainable.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley's Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist. Today I'm going to talk about the steady rise we've had in gold prices in recent months and whether or not this rally can continue. It's Tuesday, April 15th, at 2pm in London.So gold breached $3000/oz for the first time ever on 17th of March this year, and has continued to rise since then; but we would argue it still has room to run. First of all, let's look back at how we got here. So, gold already rallied 25 percent in 2024, which was driven largely by strong central bank demand as well as the start of the US Fed rate cutting cycle, and strong demand for bars and coins as geopolitical risk remained elevated. And arguably, these trends have continued in 2025, with gold up another 22 percent, and now rising tariff uncertainty also contributing. This comes in two ways – first, demand for gold as a safe haven asset against this current macro uncertainty. And second as an inflation hedge. Gold has historically been viewed by investors as a hedge against the impact of inflation. So, with the U.S. tariffs raising inflation risks, gold is seeing additional demand here too. But, of course, the question is: can this gold rally keep going? We think the answer is yes, but would caveat that in big market moves -- like the ones we have seen in recent weeks -- gold can also initially fall alongside other asset classes, as it is often used to provide liquidity. But this is often short-lived and already gold has been rebounding. We would expect this to continue with the price of gold to rise further to around $3500/oz by the third quarter of this year. There are three key drivers behind this projection: First, we see still strong physical demand for gold, both from central banks and from the return of exchange-traded funds or ETFs. Central banks saw what looks like a structural shift in their gold purchases in 2022, which has continued now for three consecutive years. And ETF inflows are returning after four years of outflows, adding a significant amount year-to-date, but still well below their 2020 highs, suggesting there's arguably much more room to go here. Second, macro drivers are also contributing to this gold price outlook. A falling U.S. dollar is usually a tailwind for commodities in general, as it makes them cheaper for non-dollar holders; while a stagflation scenario, where growth expectations are skewed down and inflation risks are skewed up, would also be a set-up where gold would perform well. And third, continued demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising inflation and growth risks is also likely to keep that bar and coin segment well supported. And what would be the bullish risks to this gold outlook? Well, as prices rise, you tend to start ask questions about demand destruction. And this is no different for gold, particularly in the jewelry segment where consumers would go with usually a budget in mind, rather than a quantity of gold. And so demand can be quite price sensitive. Annual jewelry demand is roughly twice the size of that central bank buying and we already saw this fall around 11 percent year-on-year in 2024. So, we would expect a bit of weakness here. But offset by the other factors that I mentioned. So, all in all, a combination of physical buying, macro factors and uncertainty should be driving safe haven demand for gold, keeping prices on a rising trajectory from here. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

This week we talk about taxes, reciprocity, and recession.We also discuss falling indices, stagflation, and theories of operation.Recommended Book: The Serviceberry by Robin Wall KimmererTranscriptStagflation, which is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is exactly what it sounds like: a combination of those two elements, usually with high levels of unemployment, as well, that can cause a prolonged period of economic sluggishness and strain that slows growth and can even lead to a recession.The term was coined in the UK in the 1960s to describe issues they were facing at the time, but it was globally popularized by the oil shocks of the 1970s, which sparked a period of high prices and slow growth in many countries, including in the US, where inflation boomed, productivity floundered, and economic growth plateaud, leading to a stock market crash in 1973 and 1974.Inflation, unto itself, can be troubling, as it means prices are going up faster than incomes, so the money people earn and have saved is worth less and less each day. That leads to a bunch of negative knock-on effects, which is a big part of why the US Fed has kept interest rates so high, aiming to trim inflation rates back to their preferred level of about 2% as quickly as possible in the wake of inflation surges following the height of the Covid pandemic.Stagnant economic growth is also troubling, as it means lowered GDP, reduced future outlook for an economy, and that also tends to mean less investment in said economy, reduced employment levels—and likely even lower employment levels in the future—and an overall sense of malaise that can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, no one feeling particularly upbeat about where their country is going; and that's not great economically, but it can also lead to all sorts of social issues, as people with nothing to look forward to but worse and worse outcomes are more likely to commit crimes or stoke revolutions than their upbeat, optimistic, comfortable kin.The combination of these two elements is more dastardly than just the sum of their two values implies, though, as measures that government agencies might take to curb inflation, like raising interest rates and overall tightening monetary policy, reduces business investment which can lead to unemployment. On the flip-side, though, things a government might do to reduce unemployment, like injecting more money into the economy, tends to spike inflation.It's a lose-lose situation, basically, and that's why government agencies tasked with keeping things moving along steadily go far out of their way to avoid stagflation; it's not easily addressed, and it only really goes away with time, and sometimes a very long time.There are two primary variables that have historically led to stagflation: supply shocks and government policies that reduce output and increase the money supply too rapidly.The stagflation many countries experienced in the 1970s was the result of Middle Eastern oil producing nations cutting off the flow of oil to countries that supported Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, though a sharp increase in money supply and the end of the Bretton Woods money management system, which caused exchange rate issues between global currencies, also contributed, and perhaps even more so than the oil shock.What I'd like to talk about today is another major variable, the implementation of a huge package of new tariffs on pretty much everyone by the US, that many economists are saying could lead to a new period of stagflation, alongside other, more immediate consequences.—A tariff is a type of tax that's imposed on imported goods, usually targeting specific types of goods, or goods from a particular place.Way back in the day these were an important means of funding governments: the US government actually made most of its revenue, about 90% of it, from tariffs before 1863, because there just wasn't a whole of lot other ways for the young country to make money at the time.Following the War of 1812, the US government attempted to double tariffs, but that depleted international trade, which led to less income, not more—gross imports dropped by 71%, and the government scrambled to implement direct and excise taxes, the former of which is the tax a person or business pays that isn't based on transactions, while the latter is a duty that's paid upon the manufacture of something, as opposed to when it's sold.Tariffs resurfaced in the following decades, but accounted for less and less of the government's income as the country's manufacturing base increased, and excise and income taxes made up 63% of the US's federal revenue by 1865.Tax sources have changes a lot over the years, and they vary somewhat from country to country.But the dominant move in the 20th century, especially post-WWII, has been toward free trade, which usually means no or low tariffs on goods being made in one place and sold in another, in part because this tends to lead to more wealth for everyone, on average, at least.This refocus toward globalized free trade resulted in a lot of positives, like being able to specialize and make things where they're cheap and sell them where they're precious, but also some negatives, like the offshoring of jobs—though even those negatives, which sucked for the people who lost their jobs, have been positive for some, as the companies who offshored the jobs did so because it saved them money, the folks who were hired were generally paid more than was possible in their region, previously, and the people consuming the resulting goods were able to get them cheaper than would otherwise be feasible.It's been a mixed bag, then, but the general consensus among economists is that open trade is good because it incentivizes competition and productivity. Governments are less likely to implement protectionist policies to preserve badly performing local business entities from better performing foreign versions of the same, and that means less wasted effort and resources, more options for everyone, and more efficient overall economic operation, which contributes to global flourishing. And not for nothing, nations that trade with each other tend to be less likely to go to war with each other.Now that's a massively simplified version of the argument, but again, that's been the outline for how things are meant to work, and aside from some obvious exceptions—like China's protection of its local tech sector from foreign competition, and the US's protection of its aviation and car industries—it's generally worked as intended, and the world has become massively wealthier during this period compared to before this state of affairs was broadly implemented, post-WWII; there's simply no comparison, the difference is stark.There are renewed concerns about stagflation in the United States, however, because of a big announcement made by US President Trump on April 2, 2025, that slapped substantial and at times simply massive new tariffs on just about everyone, including the country's longest-term allies and most valuable trading partners.On what the president called “Liberation Day,” he announced two new types of tariff: one is a universal 10% import duty on all goods brought into the US, and another that he called a reciprocal tariff on imports from scores of countries, including 15 that will be hit especially hard—a list that includes China, EU nations, Canada, and Japan, among others.The theory of these so-called reciprocal tariffs is that Trump thinks the US is being taken advantage of, as, to use one example that he cited, the US charges a 2.5% tariff on imported cars, while the EU charges a 10% tariff on American cars imported to their union.The primary criticism of this approach, which has been cited by most economists and entities like the World Trade Organization, is that the numbers the US administration apparently used to make this list don't really add up, and seem to include some made-up measures of trade deficits, which some analysts suspect were calculated by AI tools like ChatGPT, as the same incorrect measures are spat out by commonly use chatbots like ChatGPT when they're asked about how to balance these sorts of things. But the important takeaway, however they arrived at these numbers, is that the comparisons used aren't really sensical when you look at the details.Some countries simply can't afford American exports, for instance, while others have no use for them. The idea that a country that can't afford American goods should have astoundingly large tariffs applied to their exports to the US is questionable from the get-go, but it also means the goods they produce, which might be valuable and important for Americans, be they raw materials like food or manufactured goods like car parts, will become more expensive for Americans, either because those Americans have to pay a higher price necessitated by the tax, or because the lower-price supplier is forced out of the market and replaced by a higher-price alternative.In short, the implied balance of these tariffs don't line up with reality, according to essentially everyone except folks working within Trump's administration, and the question then is what the actual motivation behind them might be.The Occam's Razor answer is that Trump and/or people in his administration simply don't understand tariffs and global economics well enough to understand that their theory on the matter is wrong. And many foreign leaders have said these tariffs are not in any way reciprocal, and that the calculation used to draw them up was, in the words of Germany's economic minister, “nonsense.” That's the general consensus of learned people, and the only folks who seem to be saying otherwise are the one's responsible for drawing these tariffs up, and defending them in the press.Things have been pretty stellar for most of the global economy since free trade became the go-to setup for imports and exports, but this administration is acting as if the opposite is true. That might be a feigned misunderstanding, or it might be genuine; they might truly not understand the difference between how things have been post-WWII and how they were back in the 1800s when tariffs were the go-to method of earning government revenue.But in either case, Trump is promising that rewiring the global order, the nature of default international trade in this way, will be good for Americans because rather than serving as a linchpin for that global setup, keeping things orderly by serving as the biggest market in the world, the American economy will be a behemoth that gets what it's owed, even if at the expense of others—a winner among losers who keep playing because they can't afford not to, rather than a possibly slightly less winning winner amongst other winners.This theory seems to have stemmed from a 1980s understanding of things, which is a cultural and economic milieu from which a lot of Trump's views and ideas seem to have originated, despite in many cases having long since been disproved or shown to be incomplete. But it's also a premise that may be more appealing to very wealthy people, because a lot of the negative consequences from these tariffs will be experienced by people in lower economic classes and people from poorer nations, where the price hikes will be excruciating, and folks in the middle class, whose wealth is primarily kept in stocks. Folks in the higher economic echolons, including those making most of these decisions, tend to make and build their wealth via other means, which won't be entirely unimpacted, but will certainly be less hurt by these moves than everyone else.It's also possible, and this seems more likely to me, but it's of course impossible to know the truth of the matter right now, that Trump is implementing a huge version of his go-to negotiating tactic of basically hurting the folks on the other end of a negotiation in order to establish leverage over them, and then starting that negotiation by asking what they'll do for him if he limits or stops the pain.The US is expected to suffer greatly from these tariffs, but other countries, especially those that rely heavily on the US market as their consumer base, and in some cases for a huge chunk of their economy, their total GDP, will suffer even more.There's a good chance many countries, in public or behind closed doors, will look at the numbers and decide that it makes more sense to give Trump and his administration something big, up front, in exchange for a lessening of these tariffs. That's what seems to be happening with Vietnam, already, and Israel, and there's a good chance other nations have already put out feelers to see what he might want in exchange for some preferential treatment in this regard—early reports suggest at least 50 governments have done exactly that since the announcement, though those reports are coming from within the White House, so it's probably prudent to take them with a grain of salt, at this point. That said, this sort of messaging from the White House suggests that the administration might be hoping for a bunch of US-favoring deals and will therefore make a lot of noise about initial negotiations to signal that that's what they want, and that the pain can go away if everyone just kowtows a little and gestures at some new trade policies that favor the US and make Trump look like a master negotiator who's bringing the world to heel.There's been pushback against this potentiality, however, led by China, which has led with its own, very large counter-tariffs rather than negotiating, and the EU looks like it might do the same. If enough governments do this, it could call Trump's bluff while also making these other entities, perhaps especially China, which was first out the door with counter-tariffs and statements about not be cowed by the US's bluster, seem like the natural successors to the US in terms of global economic leadership. It could result in the US giving away all that soft power, basically, and that in turn could realign global trade relationships and ultimately other sorts of relationships, too, in China's favor.One other commonly cited possibility, and this is maybe the grimmest of the three, but it's not impossible, is that Trump and other people in his administration recognize that the world is changing, that China is ascendent and the US is by some metrics not competing in the way it needs to in order to keep up and retain its dominance, and that's true in terms of things like manufacturing and research, but also the potential implications of AI, changing battlefield tactics, and so on. And from that perspective, it maybe makes sense to just shake the game board, knocking over all the pieces rather than trying to win by adhering to what have become common conventions and normal rules of play.If everyone takes a hit, if there's a global recession or depression and everything is knocked asunder because those variables that led to where we are today, with all their associated pros and cons, are suddenly gone, that might lead to a situation in which the US is hurt, but not as badly as everyone else, including entities like China. And because the US did the game board shaking, the US may thus be in a better position as everything settles back into a new state of affairs; a new state of affairs that Trump and his people want to be more favorable to the US, long-term.There's some logic to this thinking, even if it's a very grim, me-first, zero-sum kind of logic. The US economy is less reliant on global trade than the rest of the G20, the wealthiest countries in the world; only about 25% of its GDP is derived from trade, while that number is 37% for China, 63% for France, and a whopping 88% for Germany.Other nations are in a relatively more vulnerable position than the US in a less-open, more tariff-heavy world, then, and that means the US administration may have them over a barrel, making the aforementioned US-favoring negotiations more likely, but also, again, potentially just hurting everyone, but the US less so. And when I say hurting, I mean some countries losing a huge chunk of their economy overnight, triggering a lot more poverty, maybe stagflation and famines, and possibly even revolutions, as people worldwide experience a shocking and sudden decrease in both wealth and future economic outlook.Already, just days after Trump announced his tariffs, global markets are crashing, with US markets on track to record its second-worst three-day decline in history, after only the crash of 1987—so that's worse than even the crashes that followed 9/11, the Covid-19 pandemic, the debt crisis, and many others.Foreign markets are doing even worse, though, with Hong Kong's recently high-flying Hang Seng falling 13% in trading early this week, and Japan's Nikkei dropping 8%.Other market markers are also dropping, the price of oil falling to a pandemic-era level of $60 per barrel, Bitcoin losing 10% in a day, and even the US dollar, which theoretically should rise in a tariff scenario, dropping 0.1%—which suggests investors are planning for a damaging recession, and the US market and currency as a whole might be toxic for a while; which could, in turn, lead to a boom for the rest of the world, the US missing out on that boom.There are also simpler theories, I should mention, that tariffs may be meant to generate more profits to help pay for Trump's expanded tax cuts without requiring he touch the third-rails of Medicare or Social Security, or that they're meant to address the US's booming debt by causing investors to flee to Treasury bills, which has the knock-on effect of reducing the interest rates that have to be paid on government debt.That flight toward Treasuries is already happening, though it seems to be primarily because investors are fleeing the market as stocks collapse in value and everyone's worrying about their future, about stagflation, and about mass layoffs and unemployment.It may be that all or most of these things are true, too, by the way, and that this jumble of events, pros and cons alike, are seen as a net-positive by this administration.For what it's worth, too, the US Presidency doesn't typically get to set things like tariffs—that's congress' responsibility and right. But because Congress is currently controlled by Republicans, they've yet to push back on these tariffs with a veto, and they may not. There are rumblings within the president's party about this, and a lot of statements about how it'll ultimately be good, but that maybe they would have done things differently, but there hasn't been any real action yet, just hedging. And that could remain the case, but if things get bad enough, they could be forced by their constituents to take concrete action on the matter before Trump's promised, theoretical positive outcomes have the chance to emerge, or not.Show Noteshttps://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20060925_RL33665_4a8c6781ce519caa3e6b82f95c269f73021c5fdf.pdfhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/31/tariffs-affect-consumer-spending/https://www.wsj.com/tech/exempt-or-not-the-chip-industry-wont-escape-tariffs-a6c771dbhttps://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/goldman-sachs-lifts-u-s-recession-probability-to-35-ce285ebchttps://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-9d85eb00-1184-11f0-8b11-0da1ebc288e3.htmlhttps://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-democrats-economy-protests-financial-markets-90afa4079acbde1deb223adf070c1e98https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trade-war-explodes-across-world-at-pace-not-seen-in-decades-0b6d6513https://www.mufgamericas.com/sites/default/files/document/2025-04/The-Long-Shadow-of-William-McKinley.pdfhttps://x.com/krishnanrohit/status/1907587352157106292https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/trump-stocks-tariffs-trade.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/05/opinion/trump-tariffs-theories.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/asia/vietnam-trump-tariff-delay.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/europe/trade-trump-tariffs-brexit.htmlhttps://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/04/why-do-domestic-prices-rise-with-tarriffs.htmlhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/how-we-got-liberation-day-look-trumps-past-comments-tariffshttps://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/trumps-tariff-strategy-can-be-traced-back-to-the-1980s/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/us/politics/trump-tv-stock-market.htmlhttps://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdfhttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/over-50-countries-push-for-tariff-revisions-will-donald-trump-compromise-heres-what-the-white-house-said/articleshow/120043664.cmshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/business/stock-market-plunge-investment-bank-impact.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-07-25https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trump-tariff-foreign-policy-6934e493https://www.wsj.com/economy/in-matter-of-days-outlook-shifts-from-solid-growth-to-recession-risk-027eb2b4https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Asia-Pacific-stocks-sink-from-Trump-s-tariff-barrage-Hong-Kong-down-13https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-seeks-unity-first-strike-back-trump-tariffs-2025-04-06/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/07/trump-presidency-news-tariffs/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/world/asia/china-trade-war-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-07/global-rout-carries-whiff-of-panic-as-trump-holds-fast-on-tariffshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflationhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-fed-recent-projections-signal-120900777.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_stagnation This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe