Spectra Markets

You can buy the full audiobook on Audible here: https://www.audible.com/pd/B0CGG8Z528/?source_code=AUDFPWS0223189MWT-BK-ACX0-364897&ref=acx_bty_BK_ACX0_364897_rh_us.

Three existential questions for traders.

You can find edge in math, and you can find edge in narratives. The best edge comes from being able to use both.

Market profile is a simple, visual, and technically useful way to look at short-term price action.

Knowing where to put your stop is just as important as being right on the trade.

Finding your edge and then evolving it over time is essential.

Being able to identify, and adapt to, regime change is critical for finding your edge in trading.

This piece is in response to three questions I am very often asked by younger traders: “Is it OK to get back into a position after you have been stopped out? Is it OK to add to a losing position? Is it OK to move your stop loss on a losing position?” My answer to all three is mostly “NO!” But there are times when these three normally-destructive behaviors can be appropriate.

Mental flexibility is crucial to becoming an excellent trader.

A common sense approach and obvious trades that the market hasn't priced in yet are a great way to find ideas.

In trading, unlike in life, you should sweat the small stuff.

If Dr. Seuss and Eminem had a son... He'd sound like this.

Jumping in at the mega-extremes is risky but can be a great way to time a trade.

Timing in trading is everything.

Selling vol is a dangerous, but high-expected value way to trade boring markets.

Taking a look at the most important traits of good traders, including a recent survey we did.

There are various ways to use gaps in your trading.

Ups, downs, triumphs, and slumps are all part of trading.

In order to trade effectively, you don't need to have a certain personality - but you do need to understand your own personality and work with it.

Writing down helps improve your trading in a number of ways.

Sometimes correlations flip and do the opposite of what you expected them to do.

There are a number of things to consider when trading events.

A discussion of how I generate trade ideas for global macro. This example is about USDJPY.

Flat can be good or bad, depending on who you are as a trader. For me now, flat is good.

Buy rumor/sell fact is a common market phenomenon, especially in crypto. Short ETH here into the merge looks like a good trade.

Microstructure helps you identify how, when, and why your market moves. In this episode we talk about one of the most important pieces of microstructure: time of day.

In this episode we talk about pattern recognition, backtesting, and having a good filter for what you see in the markets.

Horizontal lines are sophisticated and useful because they're simple. They often represent something that's actually going on beneath the surface of the market.

In this episode, Brent discusses the ever-difficult question of varying bet size. Topics include conviction vs. accuracy, the Kelly criterion, and historical data.

In this episode, Brent explains why trading bear markets is hard. And he outlines the best tactics for selling into a bear market rally.

In this episode, Brent tees up a guest post by @michigandolf and talks about the implications of the time dimension in risk management, opportunity cost, and mental capital.

In this episode, Brent discusses trends, mean reversion, overbought and oversold signals, and three specific tactical approaches to mean reversion.

In this episode, Brent goes through four different strategies for shorting a stock and explains how to play defense and offense from the short side.

In this episode, Brent discusses a simple way of thinking about thinking where you evaluate not just your totally awesome trade idea, but all the reasons it might not work. Avoid confirmation bias with this CIA-approved style of analysis.

In this episode, Brent explains how simple frameworks can help reduce complexity and filter out noise and make you a better analyst and trader.

https://50in50.substack.com/p/week-17-good-newsbad-price?sd=fs

In this episode, Brent talks about BTC correlation, MSTR convexity, and his bearish view on ETHBTC.

https://50in50.substack.com/p/week-16-dont-blow-up?s=w

In this episode, Brent discusses the recent low beta action in crypto, plus some thoughts on "stable"coins and DeFi.

In this episode, Brent talks about relative value trading and why it is so gosh darn hard.

In this episode, Brent discusses the nonlinear relationship between yield and risk, and explains why there isn't much regulators can do when everyone just wants to gamble.

https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-14-btc-slingshot

https://mtcbd.substack.com/p/macrotactical-crypto-17

https://50in50.substack.com/p/50in50-13-the-most-important-trading?s=w

Go to www.spectramarkets.com for all the good stuff.

https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-11-sentiment-and-positioning?s=w

https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-10-the-metagame?s=w

In this episode, Brent discusses why he thinks crypto is entering a difficult four-week period. The grinding move off the lows encounters major resistance just as tax payments loom and the May 4th Fed meeting nears.

In this episode, Brent talks about the importance of adaptation in trading and why you should not always be a breakout or mean reversion trader. You should adapt to the market.

https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade8