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Live from the Morgan Stanley Japan Summit, our analysts Chiwoong Lee and Sho Nakazawa discuss their outlook for the Japanese economy and stock market in light of the country's evolving trade partnerships with the U.S. and China.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Lee-san: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chiwoong Lee, Principal Global Economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.Nakazawa-san: And I'm Sho Nakazawa, Japan Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.Lee-san: Today we're coming to you live from the Morgan Stanley Japan Summit in Tokyo. And we'll be sharing our views on Japan in the context of global economic growth. We will also focus on Japan's position vis-à-vis its two largest trading partners, the U.S. and China.It's Tuesday, May 20, at 3pm in Tokyo.Lee-san: Nakazawa-san, you and I both have been talking with a large number of clients here at the summit. Based on your conversations, what issues are most top of mind right now?Nakazawa-san: There are many inquiries about how to position because of the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy and the investment strategy for governance reform. These are both catalysts for Japan. And in Japan, there are multiple governance investment angles, with increasing interest in the removal of parent-child listings, which is when a parent company and a subsidiary company are both listed on an exchange. This reform [would] remove the subsidiaries. So, clients are very focused on who will be the next candidate for the removal of a parent-child listing.And what are you hearing from clients on your side, Lee-san?Lee-san: I would say the most frequent questions we received were regarding the Trump administration's policies, of course. While the reciprocal tariffs have been somewhat relaxed compared to the initial announcements, they still remain very high; and there was a strong focus on their negative impact on the U.S. economy and the global economy, including Japan. Of course, external demand is critical for Japanese economy, but when we pointed out the resilience of domestic demand, many investors seemed to agree with that view.Nakazawa-san: How do investors' views square with your outlook for the global economy over the rest of the year?Lee-san: Well, there was broad consensus that tariffs and policy uncertainty are negatively affecting trade and investment activities across countries. In particular, there is concern about the impact on investment. As Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke wrote in his papers in [the] 1980s, uncertainty tends to delay investment decisions. However, I got the impression that views varied on just how sensitive investment behavior is to this uncertainty.Nakazawa-san: How significant are U.S. tariffs on global economy including Japan both near-term and longer-term?Lee-san: The negative effects on the global economy through trade and investment are certainly important, but the most critical issue is the impact on the U.S. economy. Tariffs essentially act as a tax burden on U.S. consumers and businesses.For example, in 2018, there was some impact on prices, but the more significant effect was on business production and employment. Now, with even higher tariff rates, the impact on inflation and economic activity is expected to be even greater. Given the inflationary pressures from tariffs, we believe the Fed will find it difficult to cut rates in 2025. On the other hand, once it becomes feasible, likely in 2026, we anticipate the Fed will need to implement substantial rate cuts.Lee-san: So, Nakazawa-san, how has the Japanese stock market reacted to U.S. tariffs?Nakazawa-san: Investors positioning have skewed sharply to domestic-oriented non-manufacturing sectors since the U.S. government's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd. Tariff talks with some nations have achieved some progress at this stage, spurring buybacks of export-oriented manufacturer shares. However, the screening by our analysts of the cumulative surplus returns against Japan's TOPIX index for around 500 stocks in their coverage universe, divided into stocks relatively vulnerable to tariff effects and those less impacted, finds a continued poor performance at the former. We believe it is important to enhance the portfolio's robustness by revising sector skews in accordance with any progress in the trade talks and adjusting long/short positioning with the sectors in line with the impact of the tariffs.Lee-san: I see. You recently revised your Topix index target, right. Can you quickly walk us through your call?Nakazawa-san：Yes, of course. We recently revised down our base case TOPIX target for end-2025 from 3,000 to 2,600. This revision was considered by several key factors: So first, our Japan economics team revised down its Japanese nominal growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.3%, reflecting implementation of reciprocal tariffs and lower growth forecasts for the U.S., China, and Europe. Second, our FX team lowered its USD/JPY target from 145 to 135 due to the risk of U.S. hard data taking a marked turn for the worse. The timing aligns with growing uncertainty on the business environment, which may lead firms to manage cash allocation more cautiously. So, this year might be a bit challenging for Japanese equities that I recommend staying defensive positioning with defensive non-manufacturing sectors overall.Nakazawa-san: And given tariff risks, do you see a change in the Bank of Japan's rate path for the rest of the year?Lee-san: Yeah well, external demand is a very important driver of Japanese economy. Even if tariffs on Japan do not rise significantly, auto tariffs, for example, remain in place and cannot be ignored. The earnings deterioration among export-oriented companies, especially in the auto sector, will take time for the Bank of Japan to assess in terms of its impact on winter bonuses and next spring's wage growth. If trade negotiations between the U.S. and countries including Japan make major progress by summer, a rate hike in the fall could be a risk scenario. However, our Japan teams' base case remains that the policy rate will be unchanged through 2026.Lee-san: How is the Japanese yen faring relative to the U.S. dollar, and how does it impact the Japanese stock market, Nakazawa-san?Nakazawa-san：I would say USD/JPY is not only driver for Japanese equities. Of course, USD/JPY still plays a key role in earnings, as our regression model suggests a 1% higher USD/JPY lifting TOPIX 0.5% on average. But this sensitivity has trended down over the past decade. A structural reason is that as value chain building close to final demand locations has lifted overseas production ratios, which implies continuous efforts of Japanese corporate optimizing global supply chain.That said, from sector allocation perspective, sectors showing greater resilience include domestic demand-driven sectors, such as foods, construction & materials, IT & services/others, transportation & logistics, and retails.Nakazawa-san: And finally, the trade relationship between Japan and China is one of the largest trading partnerships in the world. Are U.S. tariffs impacting this partnership in any way?Lee-san: That's a very difficult question, I have to say, but I think there are multiple angles to consider. Geopolitical risk remains to be a key focus, and in terms of the military alliance, Japan-U.S. relationships have been intact. At the same time, Japan faces increased pressure to meet U.S. demands. That said, Japan has been taking steps such as strengthening semiconductor manufacturing and increasing defense spending, so I believe there is a multifaceted evaluation which is necessary.Lee-san: That said, I think it's time to head back to the conference. Nakazawa-san, thanks for taking the time to talk.Nakazawa-san: Great speaking with you, Lee-san.Lee-san: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Mixed APAC trade, US futures range bound while European futures point to a marginally firmer open.DXY remains lower after Thursday's data, EUR/USD marginally reclaimed 1.12, USD/JPY found support at 145.00.Fixed benchmarks extended/held on to recent gains.Crude benchmarks remain underpinned by the latest on US-Iran, metals marginally softer.Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices, UoM Sentiment Survey, BoC SLOS, Speakers including ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Fed's Barkin.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a textStrong dollar awaits Fed speakers and PMIs. RBA to cut by 25bps, focus to fall on forward guidance. Sticky UK inflation could mean only one more BoE rate cut. Eurozone PMIs, Canada's and Japan's CPI numbers also on tap.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textDollar close to reversing weekly gains as trade euphoria fizzles out. But stocks maintain some momentum as Fed rate cut bets get small boost. Gold headed for weekly losses as it struggles to bounce back.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textUS futures slip despite boost to AI stocks from Trump deals. Dollar retreats amid speculation that Trump supports weaker currency. Gold and oil head lower too. US data and Fed's Powell awaited for direction.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textBoth the dollar and US stocks seek direction as euphoria fades. Implied volatilities ease across the board. Trump calls for a Fed rate cut but bond markets disagree. Gold range trades, as oil stumbles at $64.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textRisk appetite is slightly receding today after Monday's boost. US stocks and the dollar experienced considerable moves on Monday. US CPI in focus today, but investors are craving Fed commentary. Gold is climbing today, as oil maintains most of Monday's gains.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textUS and China make progress in trade talks, agree to 90-day reprieve. Dollar, stocks and oil jump as both sides to temporarily lower tariffs by 115%. But trade deal hopes pummel gold, easing geopolitical tensions weigh too.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textUS and UK agree on trade, US-China talks loom. Dollar gains on easing anxiety and recession fears. Wall Street extends gains, gold slides as risk appetite improves. BoE cuts rates by 25bps, three-way split helps the pound.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textUS CPI report takes centre stage to gauge tariff impact. Progress in trade negotiations will also be watched, especially with China. US retail sales, UK and Japanese GDP on the agenda too.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textDollar strengthens after Fed sounds less dovish than expected. Stocks inthe green as Powell says economy is solid. Trump expected to announcetrade deal with Britain. BoE set to cut rates, focus to fall on guidance andprojections.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textDollar rebounds as US and China agree to hold trade talks. Fed enters the spotlight; focus to fall on tariff commentary. Euro gains after Merz elected as German Chancellor. Wall Street rebounds, gold pulls back on improving risk sentiment.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

APAC stocks were mostly higher but with gains capped following disappointing Chinese Caixin Services PMI.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.1% after the cash market finished flat on Monday.DXY failed to hold above the 100 mark, EUR/USD sits on a 1.13 handle, USD/JPY was unable to maintain its footing above 144.Crude futures have clawed back nearly all the losses seen in reaction to the weekend's OPEC+ output hike.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ PMI (Final), US International Trade, Canadian Exports/Imports, NZ HLFS Unemployment Rate, EIA STEO, BoE's Breeden, Supply from Germany & US.Earnings from AMD, Supermicro, Rivian, Tempus AI, Celsius, Datadog, Constellation Energy, Fresenius Medical Care, Zalando, Continental, UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo & Ferrari.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a textRisk appetite on the mend despite S&P 500 losing ground yesterday. Implied volatilities drop sharply across the board. Gold rallies once again, while oil remains close to its recent lows. All eyes on US trade balance, the 10-year US auction and Trump's rhetoric.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textA quiet start to the week, as key markets are closed. All eyes on S&P 500 after nine consecutive positive sessions. Aussie benefits from Labour's win, climbs against the US dollar. Gold stabilizes, but oil suffers again from OPEC+ reports.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textFed will sit on the sidelines amid tariff uncertainty. BoE to cut by 25bps, but could still disappoint the doves. China trade data to reveal wounds amid US-Sino trade war.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textTrade tensions continue to ease as China ponders US offer for talks. Stocks extend gains despite red flags in Apple and Amazon earnings. Dollar softer as NFP awaited, gold pares weekly losses.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

APAC stocks traded higher but with gains capped in severely thinned conditions owing to mass holiday closures across the region and in Europe for Labour Day.BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.50% and provided some dovish rhetoric despite maintaining its rate hike signal.US is said to have reached out to China recently for tariff talks, according to Bloomberg citing an influential social media account.US stocks were boosted heading into the Wall St closing bell. Futures saw a further lift following strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta.DXY is higher, JPY lags post-BoJ with USD/JPY eyeing 144 to the upside, EUR/USD sits around the 1.13 mark.Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims & ISM Manufacturing, BoJ Governor Ueda's Press Conference.Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Riot Platforms, Reddit, Airbnb, Eli Lilly, Roblox, CVS, MasterCard, McDonald's, Drax, Hiscox, Lloyds, Kerry, Whitbread, Standard Chartered & Telecom Italia.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a textRisk appetite improves, focus shifts to today's US data. Strong data prints to keep next week's Fed dovishness in check. Trump to speak at various events, keeping market participants on their toes. Gold and bitcoin range-trade, oil falls below $60.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

US President Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs, according to WSJ citing sources.Canada's ruling Liberals, led by Mark Carney, won the national election but will need to form a minority government.APAC stocks were mostly in the green but with gains capped following the choppy performance stateside.European equity futures indicate a slightly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.1% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.3% on Monday.DXY is attempting to claw back some of yesterday's losses, EUR/USD has slipped back onto a 1.13 handle, USD/JPY bounced from support at 142.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Sentiment, Spanish GDP, HICP, EZ Business Sentiment, US Advance Goods Trade, JOLTS Job Openings, ECB's Cipollone, BoE's Ramsden, SNB's Martin & US Treasury Secretary Bessent, Supply from UK & Italy.Earnings from Starbucks, Visa, Snap, PPG, SoFi, PayPal, JetBlue, Coca-Cola, UPS, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean, Spotify, HSBC, BP, AstraZeneca, Ocado, Entain Lufthansa, Porsche AG, Deutsche Bank, Capgemini, Amundi, Rexel, Scor, URW, Carlsberg, Novartis, Logitech & BBVA.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a textTrump expected to ease tariff pressure on US car manufacturers. Dollar and US futures rise modestly, gold edges down; key US data awaited. Loonie spikes on Carney win but falls back on likely minority government.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textRisk appetite improves, but outlook remains clouded. Tariffs in the spotlight as Trump awaits China's capitulation. A quiet start to the week ahead of a very busy data calendar. Loonie might not enjoy a Liberal majority win in Canadian election.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the volatile price action for USD/JPY over the past week. Will the BoJ's upcoming policy meeting derail the current downward trend for USD/JPY? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Send us a textBarrage of US data to shed light on US economy as tariff war heats up. GDP, PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports to headline the week. Bank of Japan to hold rates but may downgrade growth outlook. Eurozone and Australian CPI also on the agenda, Canadians go to the polls.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textDollar rebounds as China considers tariff exemptions. But recession concerns remain, evident by Fed rate cut bets. Tokyo CPI inflation accelerates, boosting BoJ hike bets. Wall Street rallies on easing trade tensions, tech boost.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textTrump sends mixed signals about tariffs again. Improved risk appetite weakens, stocks surrender gains. US data and Treasury note auction in the spotlight. Both gold and oil struggle to find their footing.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent told a closed-door investor summit that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and expects the situation to de-escalate.US President Trump said the Fed should lower interest rates; has no intention of firing the Fed chair and wants Powell to be more active on rates.APAC stocks rallied amid tailwinds from the US owing to trade deal hopes and after US President Trump softened his rhetoric on Fed Chair Powell.European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 futures up 1.7% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.USD has pulled back a touch from yesterday's advances, EUR/USD is back below 1.14, USD/JPY has pulled back from 143+ levels.US President Trump's "final offer" for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation, according to Axios.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US PMIs, BoE's Bailey & Breeden, ECB's Lane & Cipollone, Fed's Goolsbee, Musalem & Hammack, RBA's Bullock, Supply from Germany & US.Earnings from Akzo Nobel, BE Semiconductor, Volvo AB, Boliden, Danone, Kering, EssilorLuxottica, Reckitt, NatWest, Saipem, Boeing, AT&T, Vertiv, Phillip Morris, GE Vernova, IBM, Chipotle, Texas Instruments.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a textTrump says he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell. He is also willing to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods. Dollar and Wall Street rebound, gold pulls back. S&P Global PMIs take the spotlight today.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

APAC stocks traded mixed with most indices rangebound despite the sell-off on Wall St after President Trump renewed his criticism against Fed Chair Powell.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.5%.DXY has extended on recent downside with JPY the main beneficiary, EUR/USD is above the 1.15 mark.Bunds are rangebound on return from the long weekend, crude futures have continued the mild rebound from the prior day's trough.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian PPPI, US Richmond Fed Index, EZ Consumer Confidence, ECB's Knot, de Guindos, BoE's Breeden, Fed's Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Kugler & Barkin, Supply from Germany & US.Earnings from SAP, Iberdrola, Tesla, Verizon, GE Aerospace, Lockheed Martin, Danaher & Elevance.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses modestly lower; US futures attempt to pare back Monday's hefty losses.DXY flat, USD/JPY fails to sustain a move below 140, EUR/USD back on a 1.14 handle as USD bounces off lows.Modest UST & Bund divergence while Gilts lag and hit lows on BoE's Greene, who highlighted that wage growth remains "pretty high".Spot gold briefly tested USD 3,500/oz before waning; industrial commodities mostly firmer.Looking ahead, Canadian Producer Prices, US Richmond Fed Index, EZ Consumer Confidence. Speakers including ECB's Knot, de Guindos, BoE's Breeden, Fed's Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Kugler & Barkin, Supply from the US, Earnings from Tesla, Verizon, GE Aerospace, Lockheed Martin, Danaher & Elevance.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed a wait-and-see approach and suggested incredibly high uncertaintyUS President Trump said "Big Progress!" was made with Japan on tradeAPAC shrugged off the negative Wall St. handover, but gains were capped with drivers limitedDXY found reprieve from recent pressure but remains below 100.00, USD/JPY hit a seven-month low but has since rebounded back above 142.00USTs & JGBs soft while Bunds lacked firm direction; French supply aheadCrude extended on Wednesday's strength, XAU pulled back from fresh record highs, base metals choppyLooking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speakers including ECB President Lagarde, Fed's Barr & Williams, Supply from France. Earnings from TSMC, UnitedHealth, American Express, DR Horton, Netflix, Sainsbury's, Rentokil & L'OrealClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a textTariff headlines remain at the top of investors' agendas. But flash S&P Global PMIs could attract special attention. Auctions to reveal information about demand for Treasuries. Tokyo CPI data and Canada's retail sales also on tap. Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Send us a textTrump hails “big progress” in US-Japan trade talks. US futures and dollar edge up, gold eases from record high. Fed's Powell maintains wait-and-see stance, ECB decision eyed next. Chip stocks under pressure; can Netflix inject some optimism?Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

APAC stocks traded with a predominantly positive bias following on from the gains on Wall St.US President Trump said they will put tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals in the not-too-distant future.Fed's Waller said under the large-tariff scenario with significant economic slowdown, he would favour cutting policy rate sooner and more than previously thought.European equity futures indicate a contained cash market open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.6% on Monday.DXY is languishing below the 100 mark, antipodeans outperform, EUR/USD has failed to hold above 1.14, USD/JPY lacked firm direction.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index & ZEW, UK Jobs, EZ Industrial Production, US Import/Export Prices, Canadian CPI, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, ECB President Lagarde, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Bank of America, Citi, Johnson & Johnson, PNC, UAL, Beiersdorf, B&M European, Wise, Rio Tinto & Sika.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Trump lifted the tariff on China to 125% with immediate effect, announced a 90-day pause & cut reciprocals to 10% for nations that asked for talks.Sparked significant risk on with US bourses closing higher by around 10%, APAC stocks surged & European futures are markedly higher.DXY gave back Wednesday's strength, FOMC Minutes a non-event; EUR higher but shy of 1.10, USD/JPY faded from highs above 148.00.USTs rebound from lows, aided by a strong 10yr tap. Bunds & JGBs hit on the 90-day pause.Crude followed the broader risk tone, metals surge.Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian & US CPI, US Jobless Claims, Chinese M2 Money Supply, Speakers including RBA's Bullock, BoE's Breeden, Fed's Logan, Bowman, Schmid, Goolsbee & Harker, SNB's Tschudin & Moser, Supply from Spain & US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump, when asked about the market response, said "now it settles in" and added he is open to negotiating if "other countries offer something phenomenal."Fed's Jefferson said there is no need to be in a hurry on policy adjustments, Cook said the Fed needs to be "patient but attentive".APAC stocks continued the sell-off after Wall Street experienced its worst session since 2020.DXY down to near 101.50, EUR held onto Thursday's strength, USD/JPY fell below 146.00 as haven flows resumed.Fixed benchmarks remained underpinned by the risk tone, crude subdued, and XAU rangeboundLooking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders, Swedish CPIF, US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, Moody's to review the EU's sovereign rating, Speakers including Fed's Powell, Barr, Waller & ECB's de Guindos.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day' on April 2nd; reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports.European bourses and US futures in the red given the above and into month & quarter end, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, ES -1.0%; NQ -1.3% with NVDA pressured.DXY has been on either side of the unchanged mark throughout the morning, EUR and GBP flat/slightly softer while USD/JPY hit a 148.71 low as the Nikkei 225 entered correction territory.Fixed benchmarks bid on the broad risk tone, German State CPIs sparked a fleeing move lower into the mainland figure, JGBs slipped as the BoJ cut its bond purchase amounts.Crude firmer as geopolitical tensions outweigh the macro tone following reports around Trump on Iran, XAU at a fresh record high, base metals dented.US President Trump threatened to bomb Iran if a nuclear deal can't be reached, while he also warned of secondary tariffs on Russian oil.Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI & Trump's executive orders.Note: UK clocks changed from GMT to BST on Sunday which means the London to New York time gap returned to five hours.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly pressured amid the ongoing themes of tariffs and growth concerns heading closer to next week's 'Liberation Day' and with markets also bracing for the latest US PCE Price Index.DXY traded rangebound after weakening yesterday, USD/JPY retreated beneath the 151.00 level amid the underperformance in Japanese stocks and after firmer-than-expected Tokyo CPI data.EU reportedly looks to hit big tech in a crackdown on US services exports, according to FT. EU is set to limit Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META) fines to avoid angering US President Trump, according to FT.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.6% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Q4 GDP & Retail Sales, German GfK Consumer Sentiment & Unemployment Rate, French & Spanish CPI, EZ Sentiment, US PCE (Feb) & Consumption, ECB SCE Speakers including Fed's Bostic, Barr & ECB's de Guindos, Supply from Italy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he has April 2nd tariffs set. Separately, reports that copper tariffs could be implemented in weeks.US stocks were mixed, European futures point to a mildly positive open. APAC trade mostly firmer but capped.DXY posts marginal gains, EUR/USD sub-1.08, USD/JPY gradually rebounded while AUD briefly slipped on CPI.USTs continue to pull back from Tuesday's best, Bunds subdued but off post-Ifo lows.Crude mildly underpinned, copper jumped on the tariff reports but is off best, XAU range bound.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, US Durable Goods, BoC & Riksbank Minutes, UK Spring Statement, Speakers including Fed's Musalem, Kashkari & ECB's Cipollone from Italy, Germany & US, Earnings from Porsche SE & Dollar Tree.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tariffs in focus amid reports that Trump could implement copper tariffs in weeks, elsewhere reports that Canada could find some reprieveEuropean bourses opened firmer but have since slumped, US futures are in the red but only modestly soGBP lags after UK CPI, EUR/USD attempts to reclaim 1.08, USD/JPY rebounded overnight but is off highsGilts gapped higher on data and extended but have retreated to opening levels into the Spring Statement, USTs softer while Bunds are firmer but only modestly soCrude continues to inch higher with a handful of factors underpinning, TTF slips as talks continue, Copper soared on tariff updates but has since pulled backLooking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, BoC Minutes, UK Spring Statement, Speakers include Fed's Musalem, Kashkari & ECB's Cipollone, Supply from the USClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A mixed session of APAC trade, US futures in-fitting after Thursday's swings while European futures point to a softer open.DXY extended past the 104.00 mark, EUR remained subdued and GBP continued to slip, USD/JPY above 149.00Fixed benchmarks contained and lacked direction while crude extended on the prior sessions sanctions driven gainsUS President Trump signed an order to increase the production of critical minerals; POTUS to speak with Hegseth at 15:00GMTLooking ahead, highlights include UK PSNB, Canadian Retail Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, CBR Policy Announcement, DBRS Credit Review on France, Quad Witching, Speakers including Fed's Williams & Waller, Earnings from Nio & Carnival.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4bvm276   - Today we look at the US stock market correction crossing its first key technical Rubicon as bear market risks ratchet higher. We also discuss the spiking Euro, Japan's likely desire to get USDJPY a lot lower, key commodities markets like oil, natural gas and copper and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.   Link to John's latest FX Update:  Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

APAC stocks saw a rebound from Friday's Asian session sell-off; participants digested better-than-expected Chinese PMI data.US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said there will be tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Tuesday but Trump will decide at what levels.China is studying countermeasures in response to the US March 4th tariff threat; will likely include both tariffs and a series of non-tariff measures.Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready to sign the minerals deal; believes the relationship with the US will continue.European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up by 0.7% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Friday.DXY is a touch softer, EUR/USD has moved back onto a 1.04 handle, USD/JPY pulled back after hitting resistance at the 151.00 level.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ HICP, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Japanese Unemployment Rate, Fed's Musalem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

NVIDIA +1.1% in US pre-market after headline beats whilst Q1 gross margins are seen easing.European bourses on the backfoot with sentiment hit in Europe amid Trump's EU tariff threats; US futures gain.Pick-up in US yields provides reprieve for USD, USD/JPY eyes a test of 150.Crude trims recent losses but metals pressured by a firmer Dollar.Looking ahead, US Durable Goods, GDP 2nd Estimate (Q4), Core PCE Prices (Q4), Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI, Retail Sales, ECB Minutes, Speakers include Fed's Barkin, Schmid, Barr, Bowman, Hammack & Harker, Earnings from Vistra Energy, Norwegian Cruise Line, Dell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded lower following the weak handover from the US where the tech sector led the declines.US President Trump said they are on time with tariffs and tariffs are going forward; also reportedly looking to tighten chip controls on China.EU and UK are to discuss a Europe-wide defence fund amid fear of US pullback, according to FT.European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Monday.FX markets are steady with the USD mildly softer vs. peers, EUR/USD remains on a 1.05 handle and USD/JPY sub-150.Looking ahead, highlights include German GDP Detailed (Q4), US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Index, ECB Euro Area Indicator of Negotiated Wage Rates, NBH Policy Announcement, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, RBA's Jones, Fed's Logan, Barr, Barkin, ECB's Schnabel & BoE's Pill, Supply from UK, Italy & Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales, discuss why USD/JPY has fallen back below the 150.00 level. Will the current trends of a stronger JPY and weaker USD continue?

US President Trump remarked that a new trade deal with China is possible; EU's Sefcovic says they are prepared to talk about reducing the 10% US auto tariff FOMC Minutes showed various participants believed it might be appropriate to pause/slow balance sheet runoff given debt ceiling dynamics, supporting USTs.Fed's Jefferson said they can take their time weighing the next move and Goolsbee said inflation is too high, once it comes down rates can followFOMC Minutes weighed on the USD, while EUR & GBP were largely rangebound & USD/JPY hit a fresh YTD lowCommodities await clarity on tariffs and Ukraine; Trump continued critical language on Zelensky though rhetoric from US advisors was more constructiveAPAC traded mostly softer aside from China picking up on Trump's trade remarks, European bourses point to a slightly firmer openLooking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EU Consumer Confidence, NZ Trade, Australian PMI, Japanese CPI, Speakers including ECB's Makhlouf, Fed's Goolsbee, Musalem, Jefferson & Barr, Supply from Spain, France & US.Earnings from Alibaba, Walmart, Unity, Wayfair, Baxter, Rivian, Zealand Pharma, Airbus, Renault, Zurich Insurance, BE Semiconductor, Schneider Electric, Lloyds, Anglo American, Hargreaves Lansdown & Mercedes Benz.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump remarked that a new trade deal with China is possible; EU's Sefcovic says they are prepared to talk about reducing the 10% US auto tariff.European bourses opened mixed but have gradually edged higher; US futures modestly lower.USD is softer vs. peers, JPY benefits from yield dynamics, AUD boosted post-jobs.USTs inch higher continuing post-FOMC price action while EGBs remain in the red.Crude and metals benefit from the softer Dollar; Rio Tinto says “Near-term market conditions are expected to remain challenging in 2025”.Looking ahead, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EU Consumer Confidence, NZ Trade, Australian PMI, Japanese CPI, Speakers including ECB's Makhlouf, Fed's Goolsbee, Musalem, Jefferson & Barr, Supply from US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/417UZv0   - While we have made the USD bear case to materialize at some point, we don't have much in the way of confirmation that it will arrive sooner rather than later, even if USDJPY may have posted a significant top. Today, a look at what is needed to get that confirmation while also running through the news of the day and what to watch for next across asset classes. Hosting today's podcast is John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy.   Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.