Podcasts about usd jpy

Send a textImproved risk appetite pushes stocks higher. Focus shifts to Nvidia earnings after US markets close. Trump highlights diplomacy as the main way out of the US-Iran crisis. Gold and oil maintain recent gains; dollar whipsaws.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

APAC mostly firmer as China returned, somewhat shrugging off the weak Wall St. finish on AI disruption concerns.DXY marginally firmer, EUR/USD directionless, while USD/JPY edged higher and above 155.00.USTs pulled back from Monday's best, Bunds remained near highs, while JGBs saw choppy action after the long weekend.Crude remained tentative amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, XAU faded while copper rallied as China returned.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Lombardelli, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses slip as AI concerns hit European Banks; US equity futures rebound slightly.JPY dragged on reports PM Takaichi raised reservations about rate hikes to BoJ Governor Ueda; DXY slightly firmer.Gilts notch a fresh contract high into the TSC, USTs rangebound heading into heavy speaker docket.WTI and Brent mildly gains; Spot gold retreats from Monday's best while Copper gains as mainland China returns. Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from the US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send a textUncertainty weighs on risk appetite; crypto winter persists. Stocks try to findtheir footing ahead of Wednesday's Nvidia earnings. Trump's State of theUnion in focus as reports point to an imminent strike on Iran. Dollar's rallypauses; gold and oil consolidate after gains.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

APAC stocks followed suit to the predominantly negative mood on Wall Street, where risk appetite was subdued amid private credit fund concerns and geopolitical risks.Hang Seng retreated on return from the Lunar New Year holidays, with the big tech names leading the declines in the index, while mainland markets and the Stock Connect remained shut and won't open until next Tuesday.USD/JPY lingered near the prior day's best levels north of 155.00, with some mild support seen as the cooling of Japanese inflation essentially provides the BoJ additional policy space.US President Trump said 15 days is the maximum deadline to reach an agreement with Iran; otherwise, it will be very unfortunate for them, according to Al Jazeera; US President Trump reportedly weighs a limited strike to force Iran into a nuclear deal, WSJ reported.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include ECB EZ Indicator of Negotiated Wages; UK Retail Sales (Jan), PSNB (Jan), German PPI (Jan), Global Flash PMIs (Feb), Canadian Retail Sales (Jan), US PCE/GDP (Dec/Q4). Speakers include Fed's Logan & Bostic, Earnings from Anglo American.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send a textTensions continue to build over Iran as Trump sets deadline for nucleardeal. Dollar climbs to one-month peak, eyes US GDP and PCE inflationdata. Oil surges to 6-month high but gold can barely grip onto $5,000handle. Yen flounders again, equities trade mixed.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Today, a look at a modest US equity market rally as we wonder whether those pressing recent themes within AI winners vs. AI losers have overextended themselves. In any case, equity technicals look pivotal here, as does the USD and JPY outlook in key pairs, all while we wonder whether markets, outside of the crude oil market itself, are too complacent in continuing to ignore the risk of the outbreak of a war or regime change attempt in Iran. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Send a textGold and oil jump amid fears US will attack Iran even as nuclear talksprogress. Dollar climbs to two-week high as Fed minutes confirm hawkishtilt. Wall Street edges higher on easing AI fears, Walmart earnings eyed.Aussie and kiwi outperform on rate hike bets.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send a textFed minutes awaited as traders expect more than two Fed cuts this year. Yen slips, pound trades indecisively after CPIs, kiwi falls after RBNZ. Wall Street recovers on tech rebound, progress in US-Iran talks.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

APAC stocks traded mixed amid the extremely thinned conditions due to the Lunar New Year holiday and in the absence of a lead from the US, where markets were closed for Washington's Birthday/Presidents Day.Nikkei 225 retreated shortly after the open with SoftBank and heavy industry stocks leading the declines, as the post-election euphoria petered out following the recent underwhelming GDP data. USD/JPY pulled back with pressure seen as risk sentiment in Japan deteriorated shortly after the open.US President Trump said he will be involved in the Iran talks indirectly and that Iran wants to make a deal, while he also stated that Iran "are bad negotiators" and he hopes they will be more reasonable in talks.European equity futures indicate a subdued cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.1% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment/Wages (Dec), German/EZ ZEW (Feb), US ADP Weekly, NY Fed (Feb), Canadian CPI (Jan), Japanese Balance of Trade (Jan), US-Iran talks, US-Ukraine-Russia talks (Feb. 17th-18th). Speakers include Fed's Barr & Daly, Supply from Germany. Earnings from Medtronic, Leidos, Palo Alto, Cadence Design Systems, Republic Services, Vulcan Materials, Kenvue, Antofagasta. Holiday: Chinese Spring Festival Golden Week (17-24 Feb).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send a textInvestors expect 65bps worth of Fed cuts for 2026. FOMC meeting minutes and Q4 GDP data awaited. Yen recovers some GDP-related losses, aussie and pound slip. Wall Street set to open lower, gold extends pullback.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send a textSlow start to the week; China and the US on holiday today. Busy event calendar ahead, with a potential Supreme Court decision on Friday. US equity weakness in the spotlight; dollar benefits from lingering ‘risk off' sentiment. Dollar/yen slide pauses; Japanese sovereign yields drop after weak GDP report.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send a textInvestors still expect more than two Fed rate cuts this year. USCPI data on today's agenda could further boost US dollar. PM Takaichi'sadvisor says a March BoJ hike seems premature. Wall Street tumbles ontech-selloff, gold pulls back.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send a textNonfarm payrolls increase by nearly double the forecast. Dollar gains asinvestors scale back their Fed rate cut bets. Yen extends rally onintervention worries, Aussie rallies on RBA hawkishness. Wall Street pullsback after NFP, gold shrugs off dollar strength.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send a textUS equities and cryptos reverse Monday's gains. Focus shifts to nonfarm payrolls after weak US retail sales. A 70k NFP increase is forecast, but speculation is rife about a weaker print. Dollar/yen slide persists; greenback is weak even against the troubled pound.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send a textStocks climb as AI panic eases; Dow and Nikkei hit new records. Dollarhalts decline as investors await first of trifecta of US data this week. Gold'srebound pauses while Bitcoin hits wall at $70,000. Pound softer as UKyields fall back as Starmer safe for now.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textFriday's rally in both equities and cryptos may be tested today. Japanese PM Takaichi scores an impressive win; verbal interventions boost the yen. Dollar on the back foot, also due to a Chinese directive about US Treasuries. Pound remains under pressure as political crisis deepens.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textWorries about AI spending and disruption continue to weigh on stocks. But precious metals and Bitcoin come off lows. Soft US jobs data boost rate cut bets but dollar supported by market turmoil. Yen finds some footing ahead of elections, BoE and ECB hold rates.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textEquities and cryptos on the back foot. US technology stock underperformance lingers. Dollar rally pauses; focus shifts to ECB and BoE meetings. Pound under pressure as political crisis deepens.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textTech stocks tumble amid fears of AI disruption to software companies. Gold benefits from tech jitters, soars back above $5,000; Bitcoin hits new low. Yen remains pressured despite softer dollar, US data eyed as NFP delayed. Oil jumps after US shoots down Iranian drone.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textEquities and gold gain while dollar's rally pauses. US partial governmentshutdown in focus, Friday's NFP is delayed. Aussie benefits from hawkishRBA meeting; more hikes on the cards. Yen remains on the back foot,focus firmly on Sunday's election.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

APAC stocks pressured with several bearish factors weighing, incl. the partial US shutdown, weak Chinese PMIs & NVIDIA's OpenAI investment stalling.DXY rangebound, EUR firmer but below 1.19. USD/JPY initially benefited from Takaichi's remarks, though subsequent clarification unwound this.Fixed benchmarks mixed, JGBs benefit from the latest election polling.Crude benchmarks hit alongside APAC stocks, OPEC+ maintained the pause as expected. Spot gold continued to falter, base peers hit by the Chinese data.Bitcoin hit a trough just below USD 75k before finding a floor.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jan), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan), Speakers including BoE's Breeden & Fed's Bostic, Treasury Refunding Announcement, Earnings from Palantir & NXP Semiconductors.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a textGold and silver collapse on Warsh's nomination and forced exit. Dollar rebounds ahead of NFP report; RBA decision on tap. Yen resumes slide ahead of key Sunday election. Wall Street pulls back, oil tumbles on US-Iran deescalation.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Paul Ciana, Alex Cohen and Adarsh Sinha. The team will address the rate checks in USDJPY and its impact on not just the yen but also the dollar. We will give thoughts on the effectiveness of FX interventions and lessons from the past. We will address the US government's FX policy and longer-term USD outlook, as well as the potential implications of the election in Japan. Finally, we do so against the background of key technical levels in FX crosses, rates and commodities   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Send us a textTrump is expected to announce new Fed chair nomination today. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is reported to be surprise pick. Gold skids, dollar jumps as Warsh not seen as dovish as other contenders. Stocks steadier on Apple earnings following volatile session on Wall Street.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textFed holds rates, citing improving economic outlook, but dollar littlechanged. Gold leads ongoing rally in commodities amid Iran tensions. S&P500 tops 7,000 but AI spending spree limits gains from tech earnings beats.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textDollar falls sharply as Trump says he is not concerned with the slide. Fed expected to remain on hold, focus to fall on forward guidance. Yen rallies as intervention risk remains elevated. Stocks await Fed decision and earnings, gold hits new record high.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

US President Trump's announced he is to raise tariffs on South Korean autos, lumber, pharma, and all other reciprocal tariffs to 25% from 15% due to Korea not yet enacting the trade deal.USD/JPY fell sharply below 154.00 without a clear catalyst, in a move similar to Friday's post-Ueda drop, DXY is slightly lower.European and US equity futures are broadly in the green; a slew of US earnings are on the docket.Fixed benchmarks hold a bearish bias, Bunds little moved to a robust auction.Crude prices slightly firmer, whilst Nat Gas prices remain elevated; precious metals rebound following Monday's selloff.Looking ahead, US Richmond Fed (Jan), Consumer Confidence (Jan), ADP Employment Change Weekly, NBH Policy Announcement. Speakers include ECB President Lagarde & ECBʼs Nagel, US President Trump. Supply from the US. Earnings from Texas Instruments, Boeing, General Motors, RTX, American Airlines, Logitech & LVMH.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a textA plethora of market issues overshadow risk appetite, keeping gold bid. Equity markets prepare for this week's key earnings. The dollar tries to find its footing, but tariff talk hinders its recovery. Dollar/yen stabilizes; will the April 2024 price action repeat?Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Silver sailed past USD 100 on Friday and has topped 107.50 in Asia this morning. Meanwhile, gold has broken through the USD 5,000 mark. There's a lot of focus on USD/JPY and a possible US government shutdown is also now on the cards. Along with the twists and turns of geopolitics, markets now face a dense run of central bank decisions and one of the busiest earnings weeks of the year. Our analysts expect a test of conviction as markets navigate policy, growth, and profits simultaneously. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides more colour on the moves in precious metals and the backdrop of the USD, setting out the case for how he believes investors should best position themselves in the current environment.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:49) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Send us a textSpeculation of US-Japan coordinated intervention boosts the yen. Dollar traders add to shorts ahead of Fed meeting, Trump's Fed Chair pick. Stocks trade mixed ahead of key earnings from tech giants. Gold hits fresh record high, oil rebounds on fresh US sanctions on Iran.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textDollar resumes slide as investors choose better alternatives. BoJ stays onhold, upgrades projections, but disappoints yen bulls. Yen rallies later dueto potential intervention call by Japan's MoF. Wall Street extends gains,gold climbs to fresh record high.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textTrump rules out military action over Greenland, drops tariffs. Dollar rebounds, risk-linked aussie and kiwi rally. Yen falls as BoJ commences two-day monetary policy meeting. Wall Street rebounds, gold retreats after hitting new record high.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Daniel Lam discusses the political events in Japan and what are the implications for USDJPY, and global assets, in the short and medium-term.Speaker: - Daniel Lam, Head of Equity Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

Send us a textRisk asset recovery attempt hinges on Trump's speech and the US Treasury 20-year auction. A conciliatory tone from Trump might please markets but will Europeans be satisfied? US Supreme Court to hear arguments on the Fed's Cook firing today. Japanese bond yields drop; Could the BoJ restart its aggressive bond purchases? Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Send us a textTrump reiterates demands for Greenland ahead of discussions in Davos. Dollar's woes worsen but gold and silver surge to new record highs. Equities slide but losses contained for now, Netflix earnings eyed. Takaichi sets February 8 election date, Japanese bonds sink. Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Original Release Date: December 3, 2025Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang address themes that are key for markets next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about key investor debates coming out of our year ahead outlook.It's Wednesday, December 3rd at 10:30am in New York.So, Serena, it was a couple weeks ago that you led the publication of our cross-asset outlook for 2026. And so, you've been engaging with clients over the past few weeks about our views – where they differ. And it seems there's some common themes, really common questions that come up that represent some important debates within the market.Is that fair?Serena Tang: Yeah, that's very fair. And, by the way, I think those important debates, are from investors globally. So, you have investors in Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, all kind of wanting to understand our views on AI, on equity valuations, on the dollar.Michael Zezas: So, let's start with talking about equity markets a bit. And one of the common questions – and I get it too, even though I don't cover equity markets – is really about how AI is affecting valuations. One of the concerns is that the stock market might be too high, might be overvalued because people have overinvested in anything related to AI. What does the evidence say? How are you addressing that question?Serena Tang: It is interesting you say that because I think when investors talk about equities being too high, of valuations – AI related valuations being very stretched, it's very much about parallels to that 1990s valuation bubble.But the way I approach it is like there are some very important differences from that time period, from valuations back then. First of all, I think companies in major equity indices are higher quality than the past. They operate more efficiently. They deliver strong profitability, and in general pretty solid free cash flow.I think we also need to consider how technology now represents a larger share of the index, which has helped push overall net margins to about 14 percent compared to 8 percent during that 1990s valuation bubble. And you know, when margins are higher, I think paying premium for stocks is more justified.In other words, I think multiples in the U.S. right now look more reasonable after adjusting for profit margins and changes in index composition. But we also have to consider, and this is something that we stress in our outlook, the policy backdrop is unusually favorable, right? Like you have economists expecting the Fed to continue easing rates into next year. We have the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that could lower corporate taxes, and deregulation is continuing to be a priority in the U.S.And I think this combination, you know, monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, deregulation. That combination rarely occurs outside of a recession. And I think this creates an environment that supports valuation, which is by the way why we recommend an overweight position in U.S. equities, even if absolute and relative valuation look elevated.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, if I'm hearing you right, what I think you're saying is that comparisons to some bubbles of the past don't necessarily stack up because profitability is better. There aren't excesses in the system. Monetary policy might be on the path that's more accommodative. And so, when compared against all of that, the valuations actually don't look that bad.Serena Tang: Exactly.Michael Zezas: Got it. And sticking with the equity markets, then another common question is – it's related to AI, but it's sort of around this idea that a small set of companies have really been driving most of the growth in the market recently. And it would be better or healthier if the equity market were to perform across a wider set of companies and names, particularly in mid- and small cap companies. Is that something that we see on the horizon?Serena Tang: Yes. We are expecting U.S. stock earnings to sort of broaden out here and it's one of the reasons why our U.S. equity strategy team has upgraded small caps and now prefer it over large caps. And I think like all of this – it comes from the fact that we are in a new bull market. I think we have a very early cycle earnings recovery here. I mean, as discussed before, the macro environment is supportive. And Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, growth positive tax and regulatory policies, they don't just support valuations. They also act as a tailwind to earnings.And I think like on top of that, leaner cost structures, improving earnings revisions, AI driven efficiency gains. They all support a broad-based earnings upturn. and our U.S. equity strategy team do see above consensus 2026 earnings growth at 17 percent. The only other region where we have earnings growth above consensus in 2026 is Japan; for both Europe and the EM we are below, which drive out equal weight and slight underweight position in those two indices respectively.Michael Zezas: Got it. And so, since we can't seem to get away from talking about AI and how it's influencing markets, the other common question we get here is around debt issuance related to AI.So, our colleagues put together a report from earlier this year talking about the potential for nearly $3 trillion of AI related CapEx spending over the next few years. And we think about half of that is going to have to be debt financed. That seems to be a lot of debt, a lot of potential bonds that might be issued into the market – which, are credit investors supposed to be concerned about that?Serena Tang: We really can't get away from AI as a topic. And I think this will continue because AI-related CapEx is a long-term trend, with much of the CapEx still really ahead. And I think this goes to your question. Because this really means that we expect nearly another [$]3 trillion of data center related CapEx from here to 2028. You know, while half of the spend will come from operating cash flows of hyperscalers, it still leaves a financing gap of around [$]1.5 trillion, which needs to be sourced through various credit channels.Now, part of it will be via private credit, part of it would be via Asset Backed Securities. But some of it would also be via the U.S. investment grade corporate credit bond space. So, add in financing for faster M&A cycle, we forecast around [$]1 trillion in net investment grade bond issuance, you know, up 60 percent from this year.And I think given this technical backdrop, even though credit fundamentals should stay fine, we have doubled downgraded U.S. investment grade corporate credit to underweight within our cross asset allocation.Michael Zezas: Okay, so the fundamentals are fine, but it's just a lot of debt to consume over the next year. And so somewhat strangely, you might expect high yield corporate bonds actually do better.Serena Tang: Yes, because I think a high yield doesn't really see the same headwind from the technical side of things. And on the fundamentals front, our credit team actually has default rates coming down over the next 12 months, which again, I think supports high yield much better than investment grade.Michael Zezas: So, before we wrap up, moving away from the equity markets, let's talk about foreign exchange. The U.S. dollar spent much of last year weakening, and that's a call that our team was early to – eventually became a consensus call. It was premised on the idea that the U.S. was going to experience growth weakness, that there would also be these questions among investors about the role of the dollar in the world as the U.S. was raising trade barriers. It seemed to work out pretty well.Going into 2026 though, I think there's some more questions amongst our investors about whether or not that trend could continue. Where do we land?Serena Tang: I think in the first half of next year that downward pressure on the dollar should still persist. And you know, as you said, we've had a very differentiated view for most of this year, expecting the dollar to weaken in the first half versus G10 currencies. And several things drive this. There is a potential for higher dollar negative risk premium, driven by, I think, near term worries about the U.S. labor markets in the short term. And as investors, I think, debate the likely composition of the FOMC next year. Also, you know, compression in U.S. versus rest of the world. Rate differentials should reduce FX hedging costs, which also adds incentive for hedging activity and dollar selling.All this means that we see downward pressure on the dollar persisting in the first half of next year with EUR/USD at 123 and USD/JPY at 140 by the end of first half 2026.Michael Zezas: All right. Well, that's a pretty good survey about what clients care about and what our view is. So, Serena, thanks for taking the time to talk with me today.Serena Tang: And thank you for inviting me to the show today.Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

APAC stocks eventually traded mixed after initially taking their cue from Wall Street, although volumes and news flow remained subdued as markets wound down for the holiday period.JPY extended its prior session's advances, and USD/JPY eventually dipped under 156.00, whilst the CNH saw notable strength. US President Trump said the US will keep the ships and oil seized near Venezuela.Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) said the Wegovy pill is approved in the US as the first oral GLP-1 treatment for weight management.European equity futures are indicative of an uneventful cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 U/C after cash closed -0.3% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Import Prices (Nov), Spanish GDP Final (Q3), US Richmond Fed (Dec), Durable Goods (Oct), GDP Advance (Oct), PCE Prices (Q3), Industrial Production, Consumer Confidence, Canadian GDP, BoC Minutes (Dec Meeting), Supply from US. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where the major indices gained following softer CPI data and strong Micron earnings, while the attention overnight turned to the BoJ.USD/JPY edged higher alongside the positive risk appetite and despite the BoJ decision to hike rates, as widely expected, and with no mention of FX-related concerns.US President Trump's administration initiated a multi-agency review of NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 licenses for sales to China, according to sources cited by Reuters.US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and will deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.1% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jan), UK PSNB (Nov), UK Retail Sales (Nov), GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec), Canadian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Consumer Confidence (Dec), US Employment Trends (Nov), and CBR Announcement. Speakers include BoJ's Ueda, ECB's Cipollone, Lane & Fed's Williams.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

EUR/USD gained, while DAX and Bund futures fell as ECB's Schnabel said she is 'comfortable' on bets that next move will be a hike.APAC stocks were mixed following a lack of major macro drivers over the weekend and with markets tentative ahead of this week's risk events, while participants also digested data, including the latest Chinese trade figures.USD/JPY briefly retreated beneath the 155.00 handle amid a softer buck and as the latest wages data from Japan supported the case for a December BoJ rate hike, although Q3 GDP revisions were disappointing and showed a wider-than-feared contraction.Chinese trade data showed a stronger-than-expected recovery in Exports, but Imports disappointed.European equity futures indicate a slightly softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, EZ Sentix, Comments from ECB's Cipollone, BoE's Taylor & Lombardelli, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Today - US small caps posting all-time highs while the action in the major indices remains positive, but moribund. Elsewhere, the JPY is knocking on key support levels in USDJPY and EURJPY is faltering within its very restricted range - is something finally afoot for JPY bulls. A look at the week ahead in macro and company earnings and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Our link of the day is to the White House's recent National Security Strategy for the USA, which spells out the US stance to the rest of the world, which in rough terms will likely outlive the Trump administration. There is no John J. Hardy substack to accompany today's podcast due to time constraints. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the impact on USD/JPY from the upcoming BoJ and Fed policy meetings. USD/JPY has dropped this week as BoJ rate hike expectations have intensified, but will it continue?  

The Trump admin is reportedly preparing to hold a high-level meeting to decide whether to provide licenses to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to export the H200 to China, according to FT.US President Trump said the meeting between Russian President Putin, Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner was a reasonably good meeting and "we'll see what happens".Trump's aides and allies were said to be discussing the possibility of Treasury Secretary Bessent also leading the NEC, according to Bloomberg; Bond investors reportedly warned the US Treasury over picking NEC Director Hassett as Fed chair, according to FT.USD/JPY pared gains after hawkish BoJ sources via Reuters suggested the central bank is likely to raise interest rates in December.APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive momentum from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.2% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF, EZ Retail Sales, US Challenger Layoffs, Jobless Claims, Revelio Public Labor Statistics, Chicago Fed Labour Market Indicators (Final), Durable Goods, Factory Orders, Atlanta Fed GDP, BoE DMP. Speakers include BoEʼs Mann, ECBʼs Lane, Cipollone & de Guindos, Fedʼs Bowman. Supply from Spain, France & UK. Earnings from Kroger & Dollar General.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang address themes that are key for markets next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about key investor debates coming out of our year ahead outlook.It's Wednesday, December 3rd at 10:30am in New York. So, Serena, it was a couple weeks ago that you led the publication of our cross-asset outlook for 2026. And so, you've been engaging with clients over the past few weeks about our views – where they differ. And it seems there's some common themes, really common questions that come up that represent some important debates within the market. Is that fair?Serena Tang: Yeah, that's very fair. And, by the way, I think those important debates, are from investors globally. So, you have investors in Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, all kind of wanting to understand our views on AI, on equity valuations, on the dollar.Michael Zezas: So, let's start with talking about equity markets a bit. And one of the common questions – and I get it too, even though I don't cover equity markets – is really about how AI is affecting valuations. One of the concerns is that the stock market might be too high, might be overvalued because people have overinvested in anything related to AI. What does the evidence say? How are you addressing that question? Serena Tang: It is interesting you say that because I think when investors talk about equities being too high, of valuations – AI related valuations being very stretched, it's very much about parallels to that 1990s valuation bubble.But the way I approach it is like there are some very important differences from that time period, from valuations back then. First of all, I think companies in major equity indices are higher quality than the past. They operate more efficiently. They deliver strong profitability, and in general pretty solid free cash flow.I think we also need to consider how technology now represents a larger share of the index, which has helped push overall net margins to about 14 percent compared to 8 percent during that 1990s valuation bubble. And you know, when margins are higher, I think paying premium for stocks is more justified.In other words, I think multiples in the U.S. right now look more reasonable after adjusting for profit margins and changes in index composition. But we also have to consider, and this is something that we stress in our outlook, the policy backdrop is unusually favorable, right? Like you have economists expecting the Fed to continue easing rates into next year. We have the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that could lower corporate taxes, and deregulation is continuing to be a priority in the U.S. And I think this combination, you know, monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, deregulation. That combination rarely occurs outside of a recession. And I think this creates an environment that supports valuation, which is by the way why we recommend an overweight position in U.S. equities, even if absolute and relative valuation look elevated.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, if I'm hearing you right, what I think you're saying is that comparisons to some bubbles of the past don't necessarily stack up because profitability is better. There aren't excesses in the system. Monetary policy might be on the path that's more accommodative. And so, when compared against all of that, the valuations actually don't look that bad.Serena Tang: Exactly.Michael Zezas: Got it. And sticking with the equity markets, then another common question is – it's related to AI, but it's sort of around this idea that a small set of companies have really been driving most of the growth in the market recently. And it would be better or healthier if the equity market were to perform across a wider set of companies and names, particularly in mid- and small cap companies. Is that something that we see on the horizon?Serena Tang: Yes. We are expecting U.S. stock earnings to sort of broaden out here and it's one of the reasons why our U.S. equity strategy team has upgraded small caps and now prefer it over large caps. And I think like all of this – it comes from the fact that we are in a new bull market. I think we have a very early cycle earnings recovery here. I mean, as discussed before, the macro environment is supportive. And Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, growth positive tax and regulatory policies, they don't just support valuations. They also act as a tailwind to earnings.And I think like on top of that, leaner cost structures, improving earnings revisions, AI driven efficiency gains. They all support a broad-based earnings upturn. and our U.S. equity strategy team do see above consensus 2026 earnings growth at 17 percent. The only other region where we have earnings growth above consensus in 2026 is Japan; for both Europe and the EM we are below, which drive out equal weight and slight underweight position in those two indices respectively.Michael Zezas: Got it. And so, since we can't seem to get away from talking about AI and how it's influencing markets, the other common question we get here is around debt issuance related to AI.So, our colleagues put together a report from earlier this year talking about the potential for nearly $3 trillion of AI related CapEx spending over the next few years. And we think about half of that is going to have to be debt financed. That seems to be a lot of debt, a lot of potential bonds that might be issued into the market – which, are credit investors supposed to be concerned about that?Serena Tang: We really can't get away from AI as a topic. And I think this will continue because AI-related CapEx is a long-term trend, with much of the CapEx still really ahead. And I think this goes to your question. Because this really means that we expect nearly another [$]3 trillion of data center related CapEx from here to 2028. You know, while half of the spend will come from operating cash flows of hyperscalers, it still leaves a financing gap of around [$]1.5 trillion, which needs to be sourced through various credit channels.Now, part of it will be via private credit, part of it would be via Asset Backed Securities. But some of it would also be via the U.S. investment grade corporate credit bond space. So, add in financing for faster M&A cycle, we forecast around [$]1 trillion in net investment grade bond issuance, you know, up 60 percent from this year.And I think given this technical backdrop, even though credit fundamentals should stay fine, we have doubled downgraded U.S. investment grade corporate credit to underweight within our cross asset allocation.Michael Zezas: Okay, so the fundamentals are fine, but it's just a lot of debt to consume over the next year. And so somewhat strangely, you might expect high yield corporate bonds actually do better.Serena Tang: Yes, because I think a high yield doesn't really see the same headwind from the technical side of things. And on the fundamentals front, our credit team actually has default rates coming down over the next 12 months, which again, I think supports high yield much better than investment grade.Michael Zezas: So, before we wrap up, moving away from the equity markets, let's talk about foreign exchange. The U.S. dollar spent much of last year weakening, and that's a call that our team was early to – eventually became a consensus call. It was premised on the idea that the U.S. was going to experience growth weakness, that there would also be these questions among investors about the role of the dollar in the world as the U.S. was raising trade barriers. It seemed to work out pretty well. Going into 2026 though, I think there's some more questions amongst our investors about whether or not that trend could continue. Where do we land?Serena Tang: I think in the first half of next year that downward pressure on the dollar should still persist. And you know, as you said, we've had a very differentiated view for most of this year, expecting the dollar to weaken in the first half versus G10 currencies. And several things drive this. There is a potential for higher dollar negative risk premium, driven by, I think, near term worries about the U.S. labor markets in the short term. And as investors, I think, debate the likely composition of the FOMC next year. Also, you know, compression in U.S. versus rest of the world. Rate differentials should reduce FX hedging costs, which also adds incentive for hedging activity and dollar selling. All this means that we see downward pressure on the dollar persisting in the first half of next year with EUR/USD at 123 and USD/JPY at 140 by the end of first half 2026.Michael Zezas: All right. Well, that's a pretty good survey about what clients care about and what our view is. So, Serena, thanks for taking the time to talk with me today.Serena Tang: And thank you for inviting me to the show today.Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

European bourses started the morning flat/modestly firmer, but have since sauntered to session highs; US equity futures also modestly firmer.OpenAI CEO Altman declares a code red to combat threats to ChatGPT and plans to delay other initiatives such as advertising, according to The Information.DXY is modestly firmer, AUD initially outperformed after ANZ scaled back rate cut bets for 2026, but is now flat amidst USD-strength, USD/JPY rises back towards 156.00.Bonds are flat/modestly lower, Bunds little moved to EZ HICP whilst Gilts lag.Crude essentially flat in rangebound trade, XAU slips below USD 4.2k/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, Earnings from Marvell & CrowdStrike.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly firmer following the Wall St. handover, though China was mixed amid reports of Trump selling NVIDIA chips to China.Fed's Collins says she has not made up her mind on December. Treasury Secretary Bessent said prices are getting better.DXY contained, EUR/USD bounced from 1.15, Cable rangebound, USD/JPY firmer but limited in holiday trade.USTs and Bunds contained after the moves seen on Friday; Crude is uneventful, XAU continues to fade.US' Rubio said good progress had been made re. Ukraine, and none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo (Nov), US National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov), Speakers including ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & Lagarde, Supply from the US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded lower across the board as the sharp Wall Street selloff reverberated through the region despite the absence of fresh catalysts.JPMorgan no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, vs its prior forecast of a 25bp cut.10yr JGB futures retraced some of this week's losses whilst the session saw a slew of commentary from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who, on the bond market, attempted to alleviate some fiscal woes.Japan may intervene before USD/JPY reaches 160, according to Bloomberg, citing a government panellist.Crypto markets continue bleeding with Bitcoin falling under USD 85,500 at a 7-month low, while Ethereum fell to a 4-month low.Looking ahead, UK PSNB (Oct), Retail Sales (Oct), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Nov), US Real Weekly Earnings (Sep), Canadian Retail Sales (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan (Nov), Euro Area Indicator of Negotiated Wage Rates (Q3), Moody's on the UK & Italy, ECB's de Guindos, Lagarde, Nagel; Fed's Williams, Barr, Jefferson, Logan; SNB's Schlegel.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

JPMorgan and Standard Chartered no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, vs prior forecast of a 25bp cut.European bourses entirely in the red, with AEX underperforming as Tech plays catch-up to Thursday's NVIDIA losses; US equity futures are mixed today, with NVIDIA -1.5% in pre-market trade.DXY is mildly firmer, JPY outperforms on haven flows, jawboning and data metrics which play in favour of further BoJ normalisation. Bloomberg reported that Japan may intervene before USD/JPY reaches 160.Bonds firmer, benefiting from the risk tone; additional impetus from European and UK data.Crude complex pressured on constructive Russia/Ukraine reports, XAU is mildly lower.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs (Nov), US Real Weekly Earnings (Sep), Canadian Retail Sales (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan (Nov), Moody's on the UK & Italy, ECB's Nagel; Fed's Williams, Barr, Jefferson, Logan; SNB's Schlegel.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources; Politico reported that US officials are close to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict.The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.European bourses are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, whilst US equity futures gain ahead of NVIDIA.USD is modestly firmer into FOMC Minutes, USD/JPY rises above 156.00 after Finance Minister Katayama said there were no specific discussions on FX with BoJ Governor Ueda.Bonds initially bid by a subdued risk tone, but now hold a downward bias sentiment improves; Gilts briefly boosted by CPI, but then come under marked pressured.Crude complex is modestly lower with Zelensky's delegation in Turkey, XAU returns above USD 4100/oz.Looking ahead, US International Trade (Aug), FOMC Minutes, Fed's Williams, Logan, Barkin, Miran; BoE's Dhingra, supply from the US. Earnings from NVIDIA.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Despite uncertainty around the US government shutdown and signs of economic weakness, equities have rallied, though tech stocks paused as AI enthusiasm met valuation concerns. With non-farm payroll data delayed, investors are turning to private sector indicators for labour market insights. Meanwhile, in Japan, Sanae Takaichi's surprise win as Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader signals a potential return to expansionary “Sanaenomics”, a policy stance reminiscent of Abenomics, boosting equities and pressuring the yen. Tune in for a deep dive into the macro shifts shaping markets this week.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia, Julius Baer.