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101 episodes with polling matters
This week, with the dust still settling around an almighty ‘October surprise' given to us by Donald Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalisation, and return to the White House, we focus on the polling – looking at how and why we use polls during campaigns, what the latest polls are telling us about the vote in November, and where gambling markets fit into the picture. We then round up these week's stories and campaign developments, including a profile of a heroic fly who managed to dominate reaction to the Vice-Presidential debate. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/horse-race-politics/message
On this week's Ipsos MORI Politics & Society podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Katy Balls, Deputy Political Editor of The Spectator and Ben Walker, Data Journalist at the New Statesman and founder of the Britain Elects website. The team discuss the fallout from new COVID restrictions announced by the government this week – and what the public think of them as well as reaction to Keir Starmer’s first conference speech as Labour leader and how he polls versus Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Note for listeners: Polling Matters will return in its original format soon but for now Keiran will post Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcasts here as well as on the Ipsos feed - the content is very similar to what listeners are used to from Polling Matters.
On the inaugural Ipsos MORI Politics & Society podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ayesha Hazarika, Alastair Campbell and our Chief Executive Ben Page to discuss historic poll ratings for the new Labour leader and where the Labour Party go from here after a historic defeat in December. Topics covered on the show include: Starmer’s leadership ratings in context Ben Page on the importance (and limitations) of leadership ratings Ayesha and Alastair react to Starmer’s ratings Ayesha Hazarika on lessons from the Miliband years Alastair Campbell on Blair and leadership The importance of the Shadow Cabinet + outriders How to repair the Labour brand Starmer’s style of opposition Labour, Scotland and the Independence question Conclusions on Starmer’s main priorities and challenges If you like what you hear please leave a comment or rating and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Note on the podcast: Polling Matters is on hiatus but Keiran will post similar content from the Ipsos MORI podcast here as well until the main show returns.
On the future of Polling Matters and some exciting new plans.
On the latest Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi delve deep into the numbers to preview what will happen Thursday. They ask 'who has had a good or bad campaign?' and crucially 'Will there be a hung parliament?' Follow this week's guests: @keiranpedley @leobarasi
On the latest Ipsos MORI elections podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Emily Gray (MD of Ipsos MORI Scotland) and Mure Dickie (Scotland correspondent for the FT) to discuss the latest polling on Scotland ahead of the General Election and attitudes to another Independence referendum. Missed episode 4? Check out the Ipsos MORI feed here: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-election-2019-podcast or search Ipsos MORI elections podcast on Itunes or other podcast apps. A normal Polling Matters episode with Keiran and Leo will follow this weekend.
On the latest Ipsos MORI elections podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Anand Menon - Director of Brexit think tank 'The UK in a Changing Europe'. Keiran and Anand discuss the latest from the campaign trail and the role of Brexit in this election and in reshaping British politics generally. Missed other episodes? Check out the Ipsos MORI feed here: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-election-2019-podcast or search Ipsos MORI elections podcast on Itunes or other podcast apps. A normal Polling Matters episode with Keiran and Leo will follow this weekend.
On the third instalment of the Ipsos MORI elections podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by political sociologist Paula Surridge and data Journalist John Burn-Murdoch from the FT. The panel discuss the latest campaign developments, delve into the data and take some listener questions too. Missed episode 2? Check out the Ipsos MORI feed here: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-election-2019-podcast or search Ipsos MORI elections podcast on Itunes or other podcast apps. A normal Polling Matters episode with Keiran and Leo will follow this weekend.
And they’re off! General Election 2019 kicks off. Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the numbers as a December 12th election is announced. Who is best placed? What is the path to victory for each party and what should we look out for in the coming weeks? Follow this week’s guests @leobarasi @keiranpedley
In this episode Will speaks to Keiran Pedley, a pollster for Ipsos MORI and the co host of the Polling Matters podcast about the need for polling, its impact on politics and why different polling companies produce different results.
After the most chaotic week in Westminster since the last one, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi sit down and discuss how it is all playing out in the court of public opinion and where we go from here. Follow this week's guests: @keiranpedley @leobarasi
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look back at a momentous week in British politics and what comes next. Follow this week's guests @keiranpedley @leobarasi
On this week's Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ariel Edwards-Levy of the Huffington Post to discuss the latest developments in the race to face Donald Trump in 2020 following this weeks Democratic debates. Later in the show, Keiran looks at the most recent public opinion numbers on Hunt vs Johnson. Follow this week's guests: @aedwardslevy @keiranpedley
Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the numbers and ask whether Boris Johnson is now a shoe-in to become Britain's next Prime Minister and also whether he is the vote winner that some say he is. Follow this week's guests: @Keiranpedley @Leobarasi
On this week's Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi take a look at the numbers on a host of recent political events. Follow this week's guests: @Keiranpedley @Leobarasi
On this week podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh discuss the EU election polls and what happens next week. Follow this week's guests: @mattsingh_ @keiranpedley
The Polling Matters podcast returns! Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look back at the local election results and look at what the EU election polling tells us about what is to come.
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look in detail at the prospects for EU parliamentary elections in the UK now that Brexit has been delayed up to a further 6 months. Follow this week's guests: @keiranpedley @leobarasi
On this week's Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by David Herdson to review who might replace Theresa May as Tory leader when the time comes.
After a breathtaking week, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi sit down and look at the numbers. What do the public think about how Brexit is going, the prospect of no deal and where we go from here? Plus, if a General Election comes, who stands the best chance of winning? Follow this week's guests @leobarasi @keiranpedley
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by former adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Theo Bertram. Theo shares some stories of working in Number 10, gives his thoughts on Labour's current situation (and whether Corbyn can bounce back again) and discusses how Labour should manage the many problems they currently face. Follow this week's guests, @Keiranpedley @theobertram
Mark Pack and Stephen Tall discuss The Independent Group, the future of the Lib Dems and Brexit. With shout outs for The Times Red Box podcast and the Polling Matters podcast.
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at the numbers around Labour's policy on a second Brexit vote and discuss the popularity of The Independent Group, comparing their potential impact to that of the SDP in the 1980s. Meanwhile, Matt unveils some exclusive polling on how Britain could vote in EU parliament elections should Article 50 be extended (& should Brits get to vote in them). Follow this week's guests: @keiranpedley @mattsingh_
The Polling Matters podcast returns, with Keiran Pedley (now of Ipsos MORI) and Leo Barasi discussing the latest polling on The Independent Group. Just how popular are they with the public? Follow this week's guests, @Keiranpedley @Leobarasi
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at polling around a no-deal Brexit to see if commentators suggesting that it is the most popular outcome with the public are right. Also covered on this week's show is a new report by UK in a Changing Europe, which covers a host of topics on Brexit including support for a second referendum and how Brexit identity appears to be trumping party identity. Follow this week's guests @keiranpedley @leobarasi
On this week's podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the fallout from a hectic week in Westminster. They ask whether a General Election, 2nd referendum or 'no deal Brexit' have become more or less likely and explain why politicians claiming that the Tories are ahead in the polls are not telling the full story. Follow this week's guests: @keiranpedley @leobarasi
On this week's podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University to discuss his research on Labour and Conservative Party members - who they are, what they think about Brexit and what this means for the future of British politics. Follow this week's guests: @ProfTimBale @Keiranpedley
On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look back at events in a frantic week at Westminster. They debate whether May was right to postpone the meaningful vote, whether a change in leader would have any impact on Brexit negotiations and the prospect of another referendum breaking the parliamentary deadlock. Listen to this week’s episode below: Follow this week’s podcast guests: @Keiranpedley @Leobarasi
Episode 123 - More goddamn Brexit as far as the eye can see. But does any of it make sense? Luckily Tiernan (@tiernandouieb) has top pollster Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) from Polling Matters podcast to help understand some of it. Plus a fish issues aka fishues, the ever lame Brexit Deal and a look at the Immigration Health Surcharge. Listen to Keiran's podcast Polling Matters here: https://kpedley.podbean.com/Donate to the Patreon at www.patreon.com/parpolbroBuy me a coffee at https://ko-fi.com/parpolbroWatch Tiernan's comedy specials on Next Up Comedy at: www.nextupcomedy.comJoin Tiernan's comedy mailing list at www.tiernandouieb.co.uk/contactFollow us on Twitter @parpolbro, on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/groups/ParPolBro/ and the fancy webpage at http://www.partlypoliticalbroadcast.co.ukMusic by The Last Skeptik (@thelastskeptik) - https://www.thelastskeptik.com/ - Subscribe to his podcast Thanks For Trying here. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
On this week's podcast the Polling Matters team, including the returning Rob Vance, discuss evolving public opinion on May's Brexit deal and what happens if she does not win the 'meaningful vote' next month. Follow this week's guests @Keiranpedley @Leobarasi @Robvance
After an eventful week in Westminster, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh sit down to discuss public opinion on Theresa May's Brexit deal and her future and ask 'what happens now?'
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look into the implications of this week's mid-terms in the US and dissect data from Survation and Chris Hanretty suggesting that Brits would vote Remain if there was another referendum on Britain's membership of the EU. Elsewhere in the show, Leo looks at what polling tells us about the prospect of a Cameron comeback and Keiran criticises Momentum's "consultation" of its members about Labour's Brexit policy - which he claims was nothing of the sort. Follow this week's guests: @Keiranpedley @Leobarasi
In the final part of our mini-series on the US midterms ahead of Tuesday's vote Keiran talks to Patrick Ruffini from Echelon insights on the races to watch, the prospects for a Democratic wave and the likelihood of Trump winning re-election in 2020. Follow this week's guests: @PatrickRuffini @Keiranpedley
As part of the Polling Matters mini-series on the US midterms, Keiran Pedley talks to Ariel Edwards-Levy of The Huffington Post. Ariel and Keiran discuss the races to watch and the demographic shifts shaping US politics. They also look at Trump's approval rating and what to look out for in 2020.
This week PB / Polling Matters will unveil a series of special podcasts focusing on the US midterms. These podcasts will vary in content. Some will talk numbers with the pollsters and some will talk the issues behind the numbers with journalists and other political actors. The first in our series sees Keiran Pedley speak to Anthony Scaramucci. Scaramucci is a leading Trump supporter, serving Trump in a variety of roles including an infamous 11 days as White House Communications Director in 2017. During their conversation, Keiran and Anthony discuss Scaramucci's new book 'Trump: The Blue Collar President' and how Trump commands such loyal support among white working class voters in the U.S. Keiran and Anthony also discuss issues of race and gender in US politics, the GOP's prospects in the midterms and how the economy will impact Trump's re-election prospects in 2020 (plus who the president would and would not like to face).
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the political lay of the land as we approach the budget, what the public think about the economy and our political leaders ability to handle it and how important the economy is in voting intention terms in a Brexit-dominated 2018. Follow this week's guests: @Leobarasi @Keiranpedley
This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts: In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by Peter McLeod (Vice President at pollster GQR) to explore what the public think of “Chequers” and what they expect from any Brexit deal May brings back. It turns out that Chequers is more popular than you might think in the right context – but is that the context the Prime Minister’s eventual deal will ultimately be seen in? Keiran and Peter discuss. In part two, Keiran is joined by co-host Leo Barasi to discuss how May gets a deal through parliament, if indeed she reaches one. Keiran explains why he is much less positive than he once was and Leo explains why pollsters will have a big role to play in how some MPs vote. Follow this week’s guests @mcleodp @leobarasi @keiranpedley
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by pollster Mark Diffley to deep dive on the latest round of polls in Scotland. Topics discussed include: 1) How support for Scottish independence has changed over time and the impact that Brexit could have 2) When the next Scottish Independence vote will happen 3) What's going on in voting intention polls for Holyrood and Westminster and what this means for the main players north of the border (SNP, Tories, Labour)
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at recent polling by Matt on behalf of Shelter and ask 'what's going on in the marginals' and 'How important is housing politically?' Follow this week's guests: @Mattsingh_ @Keiranpedley
On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Paula Surridge (Senior Lecturer in Political Sociology at the University of Bristol). Keiran and Paula discuss the big trends shaping British politics, such as age, social class and education and the impact they could have on British politics in the future. Paula gives her view on whether Labour would benefit from explicitly campaigning for a second referendum on Brexit and whether there is appetite for a new political party (and what kind). Keiran and Paula also take some listener questions on a range of subjects. Follow this week’s guests: @p_surridge @keiranpedley
As Labour heads to Liverpool, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the polling and ask whether it is in Labour's interests to offer another vote on Brexit. They lay out the case for and against and debate what happens next. Follow this week's guests: @Keiranpedley @Leobarasi
Keiran Pedley is joined by Mark Pack of the Lib Dem Newswire to discuss this week’s Lib Dem conference. Keiran and Mark discuss how the conference went and where the party goes from here and Mark gives everyone an outside tip on who the next Lib Dem leader might be when Vince Cable steps down. Follow this week’s guests: @markpack @keiranpedley
On the latest episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss some recent polling by Opinium that looks at where Brits place themselves of the left-right political scale, who classes themselves as 'centrist' and what they think it means. Follow this week's podcasters: @leobarasi @Keiranpedley
On a bonus episode of the Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Ron Johnston from the University of Bristol to discuss the Boundary Commission’s proposals this week for reforming parliamentary constituencies in Westminster. Ron explains how it’s all done, the potential implications if the current proposals are adopted and what happens next.
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at a new report by NatCen suggesting that attitudes to Brexit are shifting and that Brits would vote Remain next time. Meanwhile, Keiran takes us through some recent polling from Deltapoll on the question of a united Ireland following Brexit and asks whether unionism is too complacent about Northern Ireland's future in the UK. Follow this week's guests @Keiranpedley @Leobarasi
Polling Matters returns for an extended episode exploring the latest goings-on in Washington DC and what a recent avalanche of Brexit related polling tells us about public opinion as we head into a crucial party conference season. In part one, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at Trump's approval rating and what that says about his prospects for re-election and the GOP's prospects in the upcoming midterms. Keiran and Leo also look in-depth at the potential Democratic candidates to face him in 2020, with a special focus on Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders as they compete for the right to lead the Democrat's progressive wing. In part two, Keiran and Leo examine a range of recent polls that present conflicting messages about the state of public opinion on Brexit. Keiran argues that polling on the outcome of a second referendum is useless at this stage, Leo looks at whether support for a second vote is increasing and both Keiran and Leo have a few choice words for a recent article in The Mirror suggesting that 4 million people are prepared to vote Labour if Corbyn is clearer on their Brexit policy. Finally, the pair examine what the numbers mean for Brexit in practical terms as we enter a busy party conference season. Follow this week's guests: @Leobarasi @Keiranpedley Got a question for the Polling Matters team? Why not message Keiran or Leo on twitter?
On this week's PB / Polling Matters show Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi take a different approach to the podcast and look at public opinion on conspiracy theories using some exclusive polling from Opinium. How many Brits think the earth is flat? Is Elvis alive? Were the moon landings faked? Is Paul dead? Is Nessie real? Our podcasters find out the answers, plus which conspiracy theory has less than half thinking it is false... Also on the show, Keiran and Leo discuss how Corbyn's latest troubles might impact the polls and what the public think about Boris Johnson's recent comments on the Burka. Follow this week's podcast guests: @Leobarasi @Keiranpedley
This week's PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into three parts. In part one: Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss this week's Sky Data poll and look at the evidence for whether the public really are turning against Brexit and what this might mean for the debate in Westminster In part two: Keiran and Leo look at some exclusive PB / Opinium polling on different political systems and ideologies. What do the public think about socialism and capitalism? Is communism really being rehabilitated? And what do the public really understand about the different ideological terms that are often bandied about in the press In part three: Finally Leo asks some important questions about who pays for polling and how much we should know / pollsters should be made to publish about who pays for their work Follow this week's guests: @Keiranpedley @Leobarasi
On this week's PB / Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the levels of public support for a no-deal Brexit and how that may factor in to decisions in Westminster. Also on the podcast, the duo look at polling on support for the far-right and other potential new parties by YouGov as well as public support for the death penalty in light of Sajid Javid's decision not to seek assurances that suspected British Jihadis will not face execution when facing trial in the United States. All this and more (including Corbyn's Brexit speech and the latest goings on in North Antrim) on the link below: Follow this week's guests @Leobarasi @Keiranpedley
This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts. In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by James Crouch of Opinium to discuss polling that shows Labour taking the lead as the Tory vote share falls. Keiran and James discuss why this is and whether the Tories could fall further still and what voters think of the concept of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. In part two, Keiran is joined by Asa Bennet of the Telegraph to discuss what’s been happening in Westminster this week, including Boris Johnson’s resignation speech today. Asa looks ahead to a critical Tory party conference season and gives his perspective on who might replace Theresa May in the future. Finally, Keiran sums up what we’ve learned and explains why Boris Johnson reminds him of David Miliband and why Theresa May reminds him of Mr Burns from the Simpsons. A stretch? You’ll have to listen to find out why... Follow this week’s guests: @Keiranpedley @MrJCrouch @asabenn
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