The Capital View With Travis Portwood

Your advisor trumpets the shelter of diversification. You Nod. It sounds wise enough. But what does it really mean? It means there is always something in your portfolio you hate.

There's a story about American writers Kurt Vonnegut and Joseph Heller attending a party given by a hedge fund billionaire on the exclusive Shelter Island.  Kurt asked Joe, "How does it make you feel to know our host only yesterday may have made more money than your novel 'Catch-22' has earned in its entire history?"  Joe responded, "Yes, but I have something he can never have."  "What's that?"  asked Kurt.  "Enough," replied Joe.  Comparison is the thief of joy....

Our relationship with money and markets is complex. Wealth and luxury are relative. Both are just a comparison between what we have and what other people have. Comparison is the thief of joy...

Entering 2024, investors confidently predicted up to seven Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, beginning in March, with our economy gliding in for the softest of landings...

Interest rates pull the strings of financial markets.  They're the charge for money we've loaned and the required return used to discount future cash flows to the  present....

We all can study economics and finance to learn how markets are supposed to work. Economic data and financial metrics are always helpful, but understanding prevailing investor psychology is essential...

One iron rule of investing is what looks inevitable in hindsight was far from evident at the time - a reality highlighting the importance of managing portfolio risk.....

Investing well has little to do with our intelligence and plenty to do with behavior.  Check Twitter, Instagram, or Facebook, and regardless of how markets or the economy are performing, inevitably, there's a cynical mob declaring....

People don't necessarily want the truth for many things in life - especially politics, relationships, and investing - we want certainty....

Throughout our investing lives, the decisions we make today, tomorrow, or next week won't matter as much as our actions during the small number of days...

History is driven by surprising events, but obvious events drive forecasting.  Our inability to predict the past never dampens our appetite to forecast the future....

What's going to change over the next ten years? A sensible question.  We know a great deal will shift over a decade. However, we rarely ask, "what's not going to change over the next ten years?"  The second question is probably more important...

Courage to invest long-term means accepting the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as it feels, and the future will surpass your expectations...

When Warren Buffett started his first investment partnership in 1956, he set expectations by establishing several ground rules for his partners. He explained what he could and couldn't do, along with matters about which he was uncertain....

What if we're wrong?  Any sound investment philosophy begins with this question.  The past two years remind us that financial ambushes lurk around every corner....

Risk happens gradually, then all at once.  Inconvenient slips needle us as markets rise, while ruthless wealth plundering declines stun us as they tumble.  Over the past two years, we've gone from the most significant economic crisis since the Great Depression......

When we're losing money, markets can feel like a casino. That feeling, while natural, is inaccurate. The longer we gamble in a casino, the more odds tilt in the house's favor. Vegas is "Vegas" for a reason. The longer we stay in the game, the greater our odds of success.

History doesn't crawl; it leaps.  Significant events that change the world seem abrupt, shaking our confidence casting the world in a dense fog.  More times than not, giant leaps aren't giant at all.....

Stock market history is the story of enormous gains with bouts of sheer terror amid the drumbeat of constant chaos.  All past declines appear like opportunities through the lens of hindsight, while uncertainty paints all future market slides as risks.....

History is the study of surprising events.  Ironically, historical data, littered with surprises, is the compass guiding us into the future.  Following an erratic two years, we covet predictability in 2022...

Current times usually seem complicated, and we fondly remember golden earlier days.  But the past certainly wasn't as comfortable as we remember, with more challenges than we often recall.  The same is true with investing....

We all crave certainty.  It's in our DNA.  But investing success isn't about discovering one optimal investment solution.  Optimal solutions don't exist because factors in the investment equation constantly shift.  What worked yesterday won't always work today...

Finance professor Elroy Dimson says, "risk means more things can happen than will happen."  Lurking beneath that comment is the sobering realization that if the COVID crisis had never occurred, something just as wild and unpredictable could have replaced it....

On March 23rd, 2020, The S&P 500 dangled at 2,237.40.  Three hundred and fifty-four trading days later, on August 16th, 2021, the S&P 500 closed at 4,479.71.  The fastest 100% gain off a bottom since World War II....

Distraction is the enemy of success. And distractions in the investing realm are well supplied. Wall Street never hesitates, dispensing arbitrary advice; "you need this," or "you should do that." The pundits on CNBC don't know you or your family...

Wealth isn't about having vast sums of money; it's about having a variety of options.  The more flexibility you have, the less you need to know what happens next.

Science is a discipline pursued with passion.  Art is a passion pursued with discipline; Investing balances in between.  The best way to navigate an investing world governed by odds - not certainty - is to leave room for error.....

When we buy a company's stock, we know the worst-case scenario - you can lose 100% of your investment. The best-case scenario is unknown - our upside is endless. . .

Disoriented