Podcasts about Inflection

Aparna Chennapragada is the chief product officer of experiences and devices at Microsoft, where she oversees AI product strategy for their productivity tools and work on agents. Previously, she was the CPO at Robinhood, spent 12 years at Google, and is also on the board of eBay and Capital One.What you'll learn:1. How “prompt sets are the new PRDs” and why prototyping with AI is now essential for effective product development2. The three key characteristics of AI agents: autonomy (delegation of tasks), complexity (handling multi-step challenges), and natural interaction (conversing beyond simple chat)3. Why NLX (natural language experience) is the new UX, requiring deliberate design principles for conversational interfaces4. Why the PM role isn't dying in the AI era—it's evolving to emphasize tastemaking and editing5. How living “one year in the future” can be operationalized with programs like Microsoft's Frontier6. How even traditional enterprises can balance cutting-edge AI adoption with appropriate governance through dual-track approaches7. Insights on leadership differences between Microsoft's Satya Nadella (known for multi-level thinking and early trendspotting) and Google's Sundar Pichai (mastery of complex ecosystems)8. The vision for human and AI collaboration in the workplace, where people and agents achieve outcomes greater than either could alone9. A practical framework for evaluating zero-to-one product opportunities—Brought to you by:Eppo—Run reliable, impactful experimentsPragmatic Institute—Industry‑recognized product, marketing, and AI training and certificationsCoda—The all-in-one collaborative workspace—Where to find Aparna Chennapragada:• X: https://x.com/aparnacd• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aparnacd/—Where to find Lenny:• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/—In this episode, we cover:(00:00) Introduction to Aparna Chennapragada(04:28) Aparna's stand-up comedy journey(07:29) Transition to Microsoft and enterprise insights(10:00) The Frontier program and AI integration(13:28) Understanding AI agents(17:59) NLX is the new UX(22:28) The future of product development(31:16) Building a custom Chrome extension(35:45) Leadership styles of Satya and Sundar(37:47) Counterintuitive lessons in product building(41:20) Inflection points for successful products(45:16) GitHub Copilot and code generation(48:34) Excel's enduring success(50:27) Pivotal career moments(54:55) The future of human-agent collaboration(56:25) Lightning round and final thoughts—Referenced:• Google Lens: https://lens.google/• Saturday Night Live: https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live• Reid Hoffman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reidhoffman/• Robinhood: https://robinhood.com/• eBay: https://www.ebay.com/• Capital One: https://www.capitalone.com/• Microsoft: https://www.microsoft.com/• Aparna's LinkedIn post about enterprise vs. consumer: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/aparnacd_every-enterprise-user-feature-has-a-shadow-activity-7321176091610542080-8X-E/• The Epic Split: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Epic_Split• AI Frontiers: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/lab/ai-frontiers/• OpenAI's CPO on how AI changes must-have skills, moats, coding, startup playbooks, more | Kevin Weil (CPO at OpenAI, ex-Instagram, Twitter): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/kevin-weil-open-ai• Deepseek: https://www.deepseek.com/• Satya Nadella on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/satyanadella/• Tobi Lütke's leadership playbook: Playing infinite games, operating from first principles, and maximizing human potential (founder and CEO of Shopify): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/tobi-lutkes-leadership-playbook• Tobi Lütke's post on X about reflexive AI: https://x.com/tobi/status/1909251946235437514• GitHub Copilot: https://github.com/features/copilot• Sundar Pichai on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sundarpichai/• South Park “Underwear Gnomes” episode: https://southpark.cc.com/episodes/13y790/south-park-gnomes-season-2-ep-17• Google Home: https://home.google.com/welcome/• Cursor: https://www.cursor.com/• v0: https://v0.dev/• Bolt: https://bolt.net/• Lovable: https://lovable.dev/• Replit: https://replit.com/• Inside Bolt: From near-death to ~$40m ARR in 5 months—one of the fastest-growing products in history | Eric Simons (founder and CEO of StackBlitz): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-bolt-eric-simons• Building Lovable: $10M ARR in 60 days with 15 people | Anton Osika (CEO and co-founder): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-lovable-anton-osika• Everyone's an engineer now: Inside v0's mission to create a hundred million builders | Guillermo Rauch (founder and CEO of Vercel, creators of v0 and Next.js): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/everyones-an-engineer-now-guillermo-rauch• The rise of Cursor: The $300M ARR AI tool that engineers can't stop using | Michael Truell (co-founder and CEO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-rise-of-cursor-michael-truell• Behind the product: Replit | Amjad Masad (co-founder and CEO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/behind-the-product-replit-amjad-masad• Microsoft Excel World Championship: https://fmworldcup.com/microsoft-excel-world-championship/• Google Now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Now• Hacks on Max: https://www.max.com/shows/hacks/67e940b7-aab2-46ce-a62b-c7308cde9de7• Granola: https://www.granola.ai/• Alan Kay quote: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/alan_kay_100831• Sindhu Vee's website: https://sindhuvee.com/• Nate Bargatze's website: https://natebargatze.com/—Recommended book:• A Brief History of Intelligence: Evolution, AI, and the Five Breakthroughs That Made Our Brains: https://www.amazon.com/Brief-History-Intelligence-Evolution-Breakthroughs/dp/0063286351—Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.—Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com/subscribe

The Bulletproof Dental Podcast Episode 394 HOSTS: Dr. Peter Boulden and Dr. Craig Spodak GUESTS: Dr. Kris Alpers and Dr. David Amador DESCRIPTION Peter and Craig host Chris Alpers and David Amador, two Bulletproof coaches who share their journeys from feeling stuck and unfulfilled in their dental practices to finding success and fulfillment through community support and coaching. They discuss the importance of aligning personal and professional goals, the impact of their experiences on personal relationships, and the key metrics for success in dentistry. The conversation emphasizes the value of the Summit experience and the transformative power of investing in education and support networks. TAKEAWAYS Chris felt stuck and unfulfilled before joining Mastermind. David experienced buyer's remorse after purchasing a practice. Both coaches emphasize the importance of personal fulfillment in business. Community support is crucial for overcoming challenges in dentistry. Alignment between personal and professional goals is essential. Inflection points often come from pivotal experiences or realizations. Key metrics for success include production, collections, and patient retention. The Summit provides actionable insights and community engagement. Investing in education and coaching can lead to significant growth. Building a supportive network is vital for long-term success. CHAPTERS 00:00 Introduction to Bulletproof Coaches 03:48 Chris Alpers' Journey to Fulfillment 09:14 David Amador's Entrepreneurial Struggles 13:48 Impact of Burnout on Personal Relationships 20:04 Finding Alignment in Business and Family 22:03 The Master KPI: Fulfillment Over Profit 26:42 Breaking Through Business Plateaus 31:01 The Importance of Community in Dentistry 36:12 Finding Clarity and Vision in Business 46:13 The Power of Tactical Implementation 53:15 Transformational Learning at the Summit REFERENCES Bulletproof Summit Bulletproof Mastermind  

Is there such a thing as a sustainable competitive advantage anymore? Step into the strategic mind of Rita McGrath, one of the foremost thinkers in innovation and strategy. In this eye-opening conversation, the Columbia Business School professor challenges conventional thinking about market disruption, inflection points, and how organizations can stay agile in rapidly changing environments. From dissecting the true story behind Kodak's downfall to examining what makes companies like Apple thrive, Rita reveals how business leaders can anticipate change before it's too late. Discover why focusing solely on your competition might be your biggest strategic mistake and why understanding your "arena" rather than your market could be the key to future success.---Guy Kawasaki is on a mission to make you remarkable. His Remarkable People podcast features interviews with remarkable people such as Jane Goodall, Marc Benioff, Woz, Kristi Yamaguchi, and Bob Cialdini. Every episode will make you more remarkable.With his decades of experience in Silicon Valley as a Venture Capitalist and advisor to the top entrepreneurs in the world, Guy's questions come from a place of curiosity and passion for technology, start-ups, entrepreneurship, and marketing. If you love society and culture, documentaries, and business podcasts, take a second to follow Remarkable People.Listeners of the Remarkable People podcast will learn from some of the most successful people in the world with practical tips and inspiring stories that will help you be more remarkable.Episodes of Remarkable People organized by topic: https://bit.ly/rptopologyListen to Remarkable People here: **https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/guy-kawasakis-remarkable-people/id1483081827**Like this show? Please leave us a review -- even one sentence helps! Consider including your Twitter handle so we can thank you personally!Thank you for your support; it helps the show!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Mike Maples of Floodgate joins Nick to discuss The OG Seed Investor, Mike Maples Jr., on Spotting Inflection Points, Living in the Future, and Why the Best Form of Competition Is No Competition. In this episode we cover: The Evolution of Seed Investing Identifying Exceptional Founders The Role of Inflections in Startups The Impact of AI on Startups Sea Changes and Business Model Migrations The Importance of Specificity and Narrative Design The Role of Pattern Recognition in Venture Capital Guest Links: Twitter/X (guest)  Guest's LinkedIn Company's LinkedIn Company's Website The host of The Full Ratchet is Nick Moran of New Stack Ventures, a venture capital firm committed to investing in founders outside of the Bay Area. Want to keep up to date with The Full Ratchet? Follow us on social. You can learn more about New Stack Ventures by visiting our LinkedIn and Twitter.

Welcome to S3E07 of IMpulse, the Influencer Marketing Podcast! In this episode, we're joined by Haafiz Dossa, CEO of Inflektion, a platform that's reimagining affiliate and influencer marketing with AI-powered personalization. From building scalable creator funnels to optimizing landing pages that doubled conversions, this episode dives deep into what it really takes to unlock ROI in the age of automation. Haafiz shares the S.C.A.L.E. framework that helped top brands increase conversion rates by up to 94%, how brands can build stronger creator partnerships, and why “affinity” — not just reach — will define the next phase of influencer success. We also explore the future of creator compliance, AI assistants, and what brand managers should be doing today to future-proof their partnership marketing strategy.

This week Jeff Ignacio sits down with Joe Ort, founder of RevOps Inflection, to explore the critical differences between revenue operations in private equity versus venture capital backed companies. With 15 years of experience in RevOps and analytics, Joe shares insights on growth strategies, planning cycles, and how AI is reshaping sales efficiency. They also dive into top-down vs. bottom-up planning, the role of RevOps in optimising sales productivity, and why getting the fundamentals right from the start can save companies from major headaches down the line.

Erik Wetterling, Founder and Editor of The Hedgeless Horseman website, joins us to discuss the attractive value proposition he sees in 3 different gold – copper – critical minerals junior resource stocks. These companies have all released important exploration news over the last week, which sets up future news releases to build upon their current work programs.   Inflection Resources Ltd. (CSE: AUCU / OTCQB: AUCUF) announced on March 25th that AngloGold Ashanti Australia Limited (NYSE: AU / JSE: ANG) has completed Phase I of the Exploration Earn-in Agreement announced on June 14, 2023 by investing AUD$10,000,000 in the Company's portfolio of copper-gold projects in New South Wales, Australia.  AngloGold Ashanti has designated a total of four copper-gold, Duck Creek, Trangie, Crooked Creek and Nynganto, proceed to Phase II of the Earn-In Agreement.   Magna Mining Inc. (TSXV: NICU) (OTCQB: MGMNF) announced on March 31st a batch of assay results from the producing McCreedy West Mine and the adjacent Levack Mine. Drilling at McCreedy West was focused on the 700 Footwall Cu-PGE zone resource expansion and definition in support of mid-term production planning, and targeted areas near historical mining. Drilling at Levack was targeting the near surface Keel Footwall Cu zone.   District Metals Corp. (TSXV: DMX) (Nasdaq First North: DMXSE SDB) (OTCQB: DMXCF) announced on March 26th drill assay results for five drill holes (GRAGR-151 to -155) completed during the Fall 2024 drill program at the base metal polymetallic Stollberg Property located in the Bergslagen Mining District in south-central Sweden.   * In full disclosure, the companies mentioned by Erik in this interview, are positions held in his personal portfolio, and also may be site sponsors of The Hedgeless Horseman website at the time of this recording.  Additionally, Shad holds a position in Magna Mining at the time of this recording.   Click here to visit Erik's site – The Hedgeless Horseman  

Trey Malone, Boehlje Chair in Managerial Economics for Agribusiness at Purdue University, says he is working to reshape the way the industry thinks about economic principles in agriculture.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In today's episode, Andreas Munk Holm talks with Jonatan Luther-Bergquist from Inflection.xyz, who shares his journey in framing crypto fundamentally as a compute technology and formulating their thesis on sovereign compute back in 2023. Jonatan explains that while the early work in crypto helped lay the groundwork for disruptive technology, he saw a bigger picture emerging - a need for Europe and other regions to improve their digital independence.In this conversation, Jonatan dives into the three pillars of his sovereign compute thesis: scaling compute capabilities, building resilient systems, and ensuring access to data flows. He illustrates his points with real-world examples, from photonics and semiconductor technologies to communications that can make all the difference in modern defense scenarios. By drawing parallels between evolving technology and the pressing geopolitical challenges, like those seen in Ukraine, Jonatan makes a compelling case for why investing in robust, forward-thinking compute solutions is essential for a secure and prosperous future.Chapters: 00:23 The Importance of Compute for Sovereignty00:38 Key Areas for Improvement in Compute01:27 Integrating Compute into Daily Life02:54 The Story of Inflection04:03 Inflection's Early Focus on Crypto 05:18 Transition to Sovereign Compute11:22 Challenges in the Crypto Space17:22 Understanding Sovereign Compute21:24 Equipping Compute Resources with Quality Data22:04 Understanding the Concept of Flow in Compute22:15 Evaluating Vertical Focus in VC Firms24:14 The Importance of Quality in Investment Decisions28:52 Exploring Technologies in Sovereign Compute29:40 Innovative Compute Solutions: From Semiconductors to Brain Tissue31:47 The Role of Communication in Modern Warfare33:48 The Geopolitical Importance of Sovereignty34:27 Personal and Professional Journey in Defense Tech41:26 Transitioning from Crypto to Sovereign Compute

The evolution of AI is changing the way we interact with the physical world, not just in how we use this technology, but also where and how we access it. In this episode, Reid and Aria sit down with Meta's Chief Technology Officer, Andrew “Boz” Bosworth, who is pioneering wearables for the company. Boz's journey in the tech sector has taken him from working on Microsoft Visio to founding Reality Labs, Meta's AR and VR division. Now, he's focused on the next frontier in mixed realities with his latest project, Orion, a pair of AR glasses. Boz offers an Orion demo and shares his vision for wearables as an equalizing technology that can unlock superpowers for every person. Plus, they check-in on the state of AI as it relates to open source software, safety, hyperscalers, and startups.   For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/  Topics: 1:03 - Episode introduction 3:36 - How Boz's farm upbringing influenced his career and perspective on the digital world  7:02 - How will wearables influence how we navigate the physical and digital worlds?  9:46 - Meta's AI philosophy 11:27 - Pi explains Norbert Wiener's construct of information theory 14:28 - What would it take to build AI world models? 15:09 - What are the most significant use cases for Orion? 19:01 - Can Orion accommodate monocular vision? 20:00 - Boz's response to Orion skeptics 22:29 - Boz gives predictions on our AI future 25:09 - What would it look like to have a compatible system of wearables?  27:30 - Unexpected discoveries from Orion testing 29:33 - What is Meta's focus in the AI space for the years to come? 30:48 - How do we ensure that AI innovation is used for good? 35:28 - Boz responds to Meta's changes in fact checking policy 37:11 - How will hyperscalers and start-ups flourish in the AI game? 40:06 - Boz shares his review on “The Wild Robot” 42:24 - Rapid-fire questions Select mentions:  The Martian by Andy Weir Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir I Am a Strange Loop by Douglas Hofstadter J. C. R. Licklider, psychologist and computer scientist Douglas Engelbart, engineer and computer science pioneer Norbert Wiener, computer scientist and mathematician Yann LeCun, computer scientist and Chief AI Scientist at Meta  Michael Abrash, Chief Scientist, Reality Labs, Meta Garry Kasparov, Russian chess grandmaster 4-H, a youth development program from the USDA The Biometric Information Privacy Act (BIPA) Qualified Business Income Deduction (QBI) Possible is an award-winning podcast that sketches out the brightest version of the future—and what it will take to get there. Most of all, it asks: what if, in the future, everything breaks humanity's way? Tune in for grounded and speculative takes on how technology—and, in particular, AI—is inspiring change and transforming the future. Hosted by Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger, each episode features an interview with an ambitious builder or deep thinker on a topic, from art to geopolitics and from healthcare to education. These conversations also showcase another kind of guest: AI. Whether it's Inflection's Pi, OpenAI's ChatGPT or other AI tools, each episode will use AI to enhance and advance our discussion about what humanity could possibly get right if we leverage technology—and our collective effort—effectively.

On this episode Pat sits down with Managing Partner of Across Capital, Rafael Costa, to dive into his journey building Across investing cross-border in the US & LatAm after a successful career at Summit Partners and Vulcan Capital, how he things around portfolio construction and liquidity for growth stage, getting to conviction when deciding to invest and a lot more.You will learn aboutHow Rafael broke into VentureWhy he decided to position Across as early growth stage cross border fundWhy he is all about high conviction, concentrated betsHis take on driving liquidity and how it influences his decision making around portfolio constructionYou can find Rafael on LinkedIn here

Join Jamie as she welcomes Polaris Fractional COO, Adin Bradley, as he shares tales of pain, inefficiency and necessary self-reflection rooted in decades of multi-site healthcare operations. Tune in to find out which of his two distinct categories your business falls into, and how to integrate the right resources to get ahead of predictable pitfalls!

Kathryn and Coach Julie teach you how to make positive change in pivotal moments or “inflection points” in recovery. You'll learn that you don't have to fix every part of your life or every part of your eating. Instead, you can zero in on the times when you are tipping into the problematic behaviors, make some adjustments, and harness your own power of choice. When you recognize and work on your own inflection points, you can avoid going down those familiar but harmful pathways and build new habits. Get the FREE 30-day Inspiration Booklet Join the Brain over Binge group Learn about 1:1 coaching and schedule a 45-minute session or 20-minute (laser) session More Brain over Binge resources: Subscribe to the Brain over Binge Course for only $18.99 per month Get the Second Edition of Brain over Binge on Amazon and Audible, BarnesandNoble.com, Apple iBooks, or Kobo. Get the Brain over Binge Recovery Guide Disclaimer: *The Brain over Binge Podcast is produced and recorded by Brain over Binge Recovery Coaching, LLC. All work is copyrighted by Brain over Binge Recovery Coaching, LLC, and all rights are reserved. As a disclaimer, the hosts of the Brain over Binge Podcast are not professional counselors or licensed healthcare providers, and this podcast is not a substitute for medical advice or any form of professional therapy. Eating disorders can have serious health consequences and you are strongly advised to seek medical attention for matters relating to your health. Please get help when you need it, and good luck on your journey.

How does the rise of AI impact our sense of what's true? How can humans maintain a degree of individual privacy and unlock the benefits of AI while mitigating potential harms? In this episode, Reid and Aria sit down with data privacy pioneer Latanya Sweeney, Professor of Government and Technology at Harvard; former Chief Technology Officer at the U.S. Federal Trade Commission; and founder of Harvard's Public Interest Tech Lab and Data Privacy Lab. They discuss the future of privacy protection, technocracy vs. democracy, teaching in the age of AI, governance, content moderation, and more.  For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/   Topics: 0:55 - Episode introduction 3:05 - Lessons from Latanya's grandparents 4:30 - Latanya's early days at MIT 5:38 - Re-identification and Governor William Weld example 10:50 - Historical arc of AI 12:24 - The Third Industrial Revolution 15:11 - Technocracy vs. democracy  18:38 - Making technological literacy a federal priority 21:03 - Divisiveness in AI  26:20 - Exploring humanity's "cultural dream" of AI 27:17 - Midroll ad break 27:49 - What will it take to build trust in AI at scale? 31:11 - Inflection's Pi lists key elements for a tech-conscious social contract 32:04 - Latanya responds to Pi and talks LLM truth-telling 34:20 - The best of public interest technology 37:02 - Improving content moderation 43:24 - Democratizing public interest technology 44:24 - Feedback and improvements for LinkedIn 47:53 - What does AI mean for education? 49:35 - Insights from Latanya's Harvard students 51:08 - Rapid-fire questions Possible is an award-winning podcast that sketches out the brightest version of the future—and what it will take to get there. Most of all, it asks: what if, in the future, everything breaks humanity's way? Tune in for grounded and speculative takes on how technology—and, in particular, AI—is inspiring change and transforming the future. Hosted by Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger, each episode features an interview with an ambitious builder or deep thinker on a topic, from art to geopolitics and from healthcare to education. These conversations also showcase another kind of guest: AI. Whether it's Inflection's Pi, OpenAI's ChatGPT or other AI tools, each episode will use AI to enhance and advance our discussion about what humanity could possibly get right if we leverage technology—and our collective effort—effectively.

Alistair Waddell, President and CEO of Inflection Resources (CSE:AUCU - OTCQB: AUCUF) joins us to recap the drill results from the Trangie and Duck Creek released on February 4th.    We delve into the recent drill results from the Trangie and Duck Creek Projects and explore why the results from the Trangie Project garnered significant market interest, leading to notable stock price movements. These projects are situated in the prolific Macquarie Arc, in eastern Australia, known for its major copper-gold porphyry systems. Alistair explains the geological context of their exploration, the specific targeting and drilling methodologies used, and the significance of the results achieved.    He also discusses the Company's strategic partnership with AngloGold Ashanti, focusing on the progress of the A$10million Phase 1 stage and the outlook for other projects to be added to Phase 2 of the exploration agreement.    Alistair then sheds light on upcoming plans, including follow-up drilling at Trangie and additional step-out drilling at Duck Creek.   If you have any follow up questions for Alistair please email us at Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.    Click here to visit the Inflection Resources website to learn more about the Company.

6 Tips To Help Slow Down Students Who Tend To RushDiscover effective strategies to manage enthusiastic and 'rushy' students in therapeutic horseback riding lessons. We share six actionable tips to help slow down students who may struggle to control their excitement and speed, ensuring safe and enjoyable sessions for both the students and the horses. Learn how to use countdowns, physical markers, tone adjustment, and more to foster a constructive learning environment. Join the conversation and share your own tips for handling 'rushy' riders. Don't forget to subscribe for more insightful content specifically designed for adaptive or therapeutic horseback riding instructors.00:00 Introduction to Managing Rushy Students00:24 Understanding Rushy Behavior01:53 Meet Your Instructor: Sabra Popoli02:50 Top Tips for Working with Rushy Students02:59 Tip 1: Using Counts and Countdowns04:53 Tip 2: Linking Speed to Physical Cues06:36 Tip 3: Don't Be Afraid to Hit Pause07:35 Tip 4: Tone, Inflection, and Rhythm09:38 Tip 5: Decrease the Number of Reps11:21 Tip 6: Hold Your Student Accountable14:07 Conclusion and Community Engagement15:12 Final Thoughts and Resources

What role can AI play in international diplomacy and national security? In this episode, Reid and Aria sit down with Anja Manuel, a former diplomat, author, and one of the leading voices in AI and foreign policy. She has the unique ability to bridge the gaps between technology, policy and diplomacy. They discuss international AI governance, China, potential threats of bio-terrorism, and the strategic decisions that the US and its allies must make to navigate this complex landscape of innovation with regulation. For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/  For the referenced Possible episode featuring Kim Stanley Robinson: https://link.chtbl.com/8YMsBlzg Topics: 1:21 - Episode introduction  3:44 - Hellos and intros  4:38 - Where the U.S. and China rank in the Great AI Race 6:09 - Deepseek explainer 7:27 - Which technologies the U.S. should prioritize 9:05 - Why it's important for the U.S. to stay in the lead 10:41 - How to maintain that lead 16:27 - Current examples of AI in national security work  18:30 - Impediments to further integrating AI 20:13 - How to connect national security to cutting edge technology  24:35 - The potential risks to incorporating AI 28:50 - Midroll ad  28:55 - How to stay safe against the risks  32:05 - The helpfulness of AI Safety Institutes 33:25 - International treaties for AI 36:11 - The current U.S.-China relationship 38:50 - How to return to a more positive relationship 41:28 - The economic race  43:25 - Anja's advice for the new administration 45:01 - Key players and swing states 50:24 - How to make a cyber treaty work  52:57 - Rapid-fire questions  Possible is an award-winning podcast that sketches out the brightest version of the future—and what it will take to get there. Most of all, it asks: what if, in the future, everything breaks humanity's way? Tune in for grounded and speculative takes on how technology—and, in particular, AI—is inspiring change and transforming the future. Hosted by Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger, each episode features an interview with an ambitious builder or deep thinker on a topic, from art to geopolitics and from healthcare to education. These conversations also showcase another kind of guest: AI. Whether it's Inflection's Pi, OpenAI's ChatGPT or other AI tools, each episode will use AI to enhance and advance our discussion about what humanity could possibly get right if we leverage technology—and our collective effort—effectively.

Erik Wetterling, Founder and Editor of The Hedgeless Horseman website, joins us to discuss the attractive value proposition he sees in 3 different gold – copper junior explorers. These companies have all released important news as catalysts over their last 2 weeks, which sets up future news releases to build upon their current work programs.   Goliath Resources Limited (TSX-V: GOT) (OTCQB: GOTRF) report today exceptional gold intercepts of 12.03 g/t AuEq (11.84 g/t Au and 15.61 g/t Ag) over 10.00 meters, including 19.91 g/t AuEq (19.62 g/t Au and 25.61 g/t Ag) over 6.00 meters plus a second separate interval assaying 8.59 g/t AuEq (8.35 g/t Au and 20.74 g/t Ag) over 5.00 meters, including 14.26 g/t AuEq (13.87 g/t Au and 34.10 g/t Ag) over 3.00 both from a high-grade gold intrusive feeder dyke that remains open at Surebet on its 100% controlled Golddigger Property in the Golden Triangle, B.C.   Hannan Metals Ltd (TSXV:HAN)(OTC PINK:HANNF) report a significant gold mineralization at its 100%-owned Previsto project in Peru. Channel sampling has revealed high-grade alkalic-type epithermal gold mineralization with 69.1 m at 2.4 g/t gold ("Au") including 26.0 m at 5.4 g/t Au. The finding, which remains open in all directions, is situated within a larger 6 km x 6 km epithermal-porphyry cluster, further indicating the potential for a major new mineral district.   Inflection Resources Ltd. (CSE: AUCU / OTCQB: AUCUF) is pleased to provide an update on drilling completed in late 2024 on the Trangie and Duck Creek projects in New South Wales, Australia conducted under a joint-venture Exploration Agreement with AngloGold Ashanti Australia Limited.   * In full disclosure, the companies mentioned by Erik in this interview, are positions held in his personal portfolio, and also may be site sponsors of The Hedgeless Horseman website at the time of this recording.  Additionally, Shad holds a position in Goliath Resources at the time of this recording.   Click here to visit Erik's site – The Hedgeless Horseman

The post Rita McGrath on inflection points, AI-enhanced strategy, memories of the future, and the future of professional services (AC Ep76) appeared first on amplifyingcognition.

Buckle up for a mind-bending journey into the heart of startup innovation! On this episode of Remarkable People, Guy Kawasaki goes deep with Silicon Valley's master of disruption, Mike Maples Jr. As the wizard behind Floodgate who spotted Twitter and Twitch before they exploded, Mike shatters conventional wisdom about what makes startups soar. Forget everything you think you know about "better products" – Mike reveals why the craziest ideas often win big and why being dismissed might be your biggest advantage. Warning: this episode may permanently rewire your entrepreneurial brain!---Guy Kawasaki is on a mission to make you remarkable. His Remarkable People podcast features interviews with remarkable people such as Jane Goodall, Marc Benioff, Woz, Kristi Yamaguchi, and Bob Cialdini. Every episode will make you more remarkable.With his decades of experience in Silicon Valley as a Venture Capitalist and advisor to the top entrepreneurs in the world, Guy's questions come from a place of curiosity and passion for technology, start-ups, entrepreneurship, and marketing. If you love society and culture, documentaries, and business podcasts, take a second to follow Remarkable People.Listeners of the Remarkable People podcast will learn from some of the most successful people in the world with practical tips and inspiring stories that will help you be more remarkable.Episodes of Remarkable People organized by topic: https://bit.ly/rptopologyListen to Remarkable People here: **https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/guy-kawasakis-remarkable-people/id1483081827**Like this show? Please leave us a review -- even one sentence helps! Consider including your Twitter handle so we can thank you personally!Thank you for your support; it helps the show!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In an age of increasingly ubiquitous AI, how do we maintain control of our lives and successfully plot our own destinies? In this episode, Reid is in the hotseat alongside writer Greg Beato, discussing this and more in the context of their new book, Superagency. Greg is a seasoned journalist whose work has appeared in the New York Times, Wired, The Washington Post, Reason, Spin, and Slate, to name a few. He and Reid delve into what could possibly go right with our AI future; the cognitive industrial revolution; and the difference between AI Doomers, Gloomers, Zoomers, and Bloomers. Plus, Reid's AI avatar makes a cameo to join for a few rounds of the game “Overrated/Underrated.”  For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/  For more on Superagency, check out superagency.ai.  Topics: 2:04 - Overrated/Underrated Round I 5:02 - Why Reid chose Greg as his co-author 6:01 - Why Greg wanted to write this book 8:19 - Why Reid chose this book topic at this particular time 11:21 - How the rise of AI is similar to the rise of social media 16:36 - Agency, superagency, and AI 19:59 - Overrated/Underrated Round II 23:28 - Defining AI Doomers, Gloomers, Zoomers, and Bloomers 28:46 - How AI amplifies agency 32:16 - How ChatGPT shifted people's relationship with AI 37:21 - Choosing AI vs. AI being baked into technologies  39:28 - Speed and scale in the current AI moment 44:37 - How innovation and safety can coexist 48:49 - Rapid-fire Questions Possible is an award-winning podcast that sketches out the brightest version of the future—and what it will take to get there. Most of all, it asks: what if, in the future, everything breaks humanity's way? Tune in for grounded and speculative takes on how technology—and, in particular, AI—is inspiring change and transforming the future. Hosted by Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger, each episode features an interview with an ambitious builder or deep thinker on a topic, from art to geopolitics and from healthcare to education. These conversations also showcase another kind of guest: AI. Whether it's Inflection's Pi, OpenAI's ChatGPT or other AI tools, each episode will use AI to enhance and advance our discussion about what humanity could possibly get right if we leverage technology—and our collective effort—effectively.

What new kinds of jobs will AI bring that we never could have imagined before?  In this special two-part episode, Reid and Aria explore this question and more with Sierra co-founder and OpenAI chairperson Bret Taylor. Part one features audio from Bret's onstage interview at the 2024 Masters of Scale Summit, where he shared his insights on the voice revolution in AI, the technology's latest role as a phone customer service agent, and the groundbreaking business opportunities still waiting to be explored in the AI space. Reid and Aria invited Bret to continue the conversation in part two, diving deeper into how AI might reshape our workforce, create new career opportunities, and spark industries we haven't yet imagined. With leadership experience at both startups (Quip and Friendfeed) and large tech companies (Facebook, Salesforce, and Twitter), Bret is uniquely positioned to track and seize opportunities in the quickly-developing AI industry. For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/ Topics: 00:57 - Episode introduction 02:02 - What Bret sees in AI 06:00 - Most exciting upcoming AI breakthrough 08:40 - The three main areas of AI innovation 09:41 - What is the AI voice revolution? 14:07 - First steps in AI customer service 18:15 - Role of entrepreneurs in AI development 22:52 - Parenting and AI 27:48 - Understanding AI inflection points 31:28 - AI as the new dot com market 34:21 - Is the AI market already full? 37:50 - More on the AI voice revolution 45:06 - Predicting how AI will change the world 53:57 - What people are missing about AI 58:29 - Superagency opportunities 1:00:14 - Rapid-fire Questions Possible is an award-winning podcast that sketches out the brightest version of the future—and what it will take to get there. Most of all, it asks: what if, in the future, everything breaks humanity's way? Tune in for grounded and speculative takes on how technology—and, in particular, AI—is inspiring change and transforming the future. Hosted by Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger, each episode features an interview with an ambitious builder or deep thinker on a topic, from art to geopolitics and from healthcare to education. These conversations also showcase another kind of guest: AI. Whether it's Inflection's Pi, OpenAI's ChatGPT or other AI tools, each episode will use AI to enhance and advance our discussion about what humanity could possibly get right if we leverage technology—and our collective effort—effectively.

Send us a textAny business school student will tell you about the S-curves that most companies encounter when they scale: when what got you to point A will actively prevent you from getting to point B. Anticipating these leads to smoother growth, happier employees, less stressed CEOs/owners, and keener investors / buyers.Here, we learn from the growth journeys of Richard Goold (ex-CEO of Moorhouse) and Mark Palmer (ex-CEO of GoBeyond and OEE Consulting) - both of whom grew and exited their firms around the £40m mark.The episode explores the critical inflection points that consultancies must navigate during their growth journeys: the importance of external perspectives, and strategies to sustain entrepreneurial spirit while scaling their firms. • Defining inflection points and their significance in growth • Emotional challenges faced by consultancy leaders • Importance of engaging external advisors for fresh perspectives • Balancing growth without losing entrepreneurial spirit • Understanding client needs to define value propositions • Diversifying client bases to mitigate risks • Necessity of rigorous systems and processes for effective scaling • Strategies for overcoming challenges at various growth milestones • Importance of strong governance and succession planning • Role of brand positioning in achieving competitive advantagesProf. Joe O'Mahoney helps boutique consultancies scale and exit. Joe's research, writing, speaking and insights can be found at www.joeomahoney.com

In this episode of Liminal Phrames, Darren/Exo and Nathan explore the recent influx of whistleblowers, including first-hand witnesses, who are pushing us ever closer to an inflection point that sees ufology enter the mainstream.

How can we use AI to amplify human potential and build a better future? And what exactly does “AGI” even mean?  To kick off Possible's fourth season, Reid and Aria sit down with world-renowned computer scientist Fei-Fei Li, whose work in artificial intelligence over the past several decades has earned her the nickname “the godmother of AI.” An entrepreneur and professor, Fei-Fei shares her journey from creating ImageNet, a massive dataset of labeled images that revolutionized computer vision, to her current role as co-founder and CEO of the spatial intelligence startup World Labs. She explains why spatial intelligence—the ability to perceive and interact with the 3D world—is so crucial for AI's development and how it could lead to breakthroughs in fields like medicine, climate, and education. They get into regulatory guardrails, governance, and what it will take to build a positive, human-centered AI future for all.  For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/  Topics: 1:55 - Hellos and intros 3:43 - ImageNet and the interplay between data and models 6:06 - World Labs and spatial intelligence  10:03 - Boundaries between 3D physical and digital worlds 11:50 - The difference between LLMs and LWMs  13:02 - What humans are capable of creating with technology  14:04 - Key principles of AI: human agency and respect  17:16 - Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI  19:13 - What this moment in AI means for humanity  21:06 - Cross-sector collaboration   25:10 - AI4ALL program and the importance of diversity in AI development 27:00 - Midroll ad break 27:09 - Using AI to improve healthcare delivery and treatment 30:20 - Founding history of AI and the meaning of the term “AGI” 33:00 - Future of agentic AI and voice  34:42 - Fei-Fei's mentor and his advice 37:18 - Rapid-fire questions Possible is an award-winning podcast that sketches out the brightest version of the future—and what it will take to get there. Most of all, it asks: what if, in the future, everything breaks humanity's way? Tune in for grounded and speculative takes on how technology—and, in particular, AI—is inspiring change and transforming the future. Hosted by Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger, each episode features an interview with an ambitious builder or deep thinker on a topic, from art to geopolitics and from healthcare to education. These conversations also showcase another kind of guest: AI. Whether it's Inflection's Pi, OpenAI's ChatGPT or other AI tools, each episode will use AI to enhance and advance our discussion about what humanity could possibly get right if we leverage technology—and our collective effort—effectively.

Applications for the 2025 AI Engineer Summit are up, and you can save the date for AIE Singapore in April and AIE World's Fair 2025 in June.Happy new year, and thanks for 100 great episodes! Please let us know what you want to see/hear for the next 100!Full YouTube Episode with Slides/ChartsLike and subscribe and hit that bell to get notifs!Timestamps* 00:00 Welcome to the 100th Episode!* 00:19 Reflecting on the Journey* 00:47 AI Engineering: The Rise and Impact* 03:15 Latent Space Live and AI Conferences* 09:44 The Competitive AI Landscape* 21:45 Synthetic Data and Future Trends* 35:53 Creative Writing with AI* 36:12 Legal and Ethical Issues in AI* 38:18 The Data War: GPU Poor vs. GPU Rich* 39:12 The Rise of GPU Ultra Rich* 40:47 Emerging Trends in AI Models* 45:31 The Multi-Modality War* 01:05:31 The Future of AI Benchmarks* 01:13:17 Pionote and Frontier Models* 01:13:47 Niche Models and Base Models* 01:14:30 State Space Models and RWKB* 01:15:48 Inference Race and Price Wars* 01:22:16 Major AI Themes of the Year* 01:22:48 AI Rewind: January to March* 01:26:42 AI Rewind: April to June* 01:33:12 AI Rewind: July to September* 01:34:59 AI Rewind: October to December* 01:39:53 Year-End Reflections and PredictionsTranscript[00:00:00] Welcome to the 100th Episode![00:00:00] Alessio: Hey everyone, welcome to the Latent Space Podcast. This is Alessio, partner and CTO at Decibel Partners, and I'm joined by my co host Swyx for the 100th time today.[00:00:12] swyx: Yay, um, and we're so glad that, yeah, you know, everyone has, uh, followed us in this journey. How do you feel about it? 100 episodes.[00:00:19] Alessio: Yeah, I know.[00:00:19] Reflecting on the Journey[00:00:19] Alessio: Almost two years that we've been doing this. We've had four different studios. Uh, we've had a lot of changes. You know, we used to do this lightning round. When we first started that we didn't like, and we tried to change the question. The answer[00:00:32] swyx: was cursor and perplexity.[00:00:34] Alessio: Yeah, I love mid journey. It's like, do you really not like anything else?[00:00:38] Alessio: Like what's, what's the unique thing? And I think, yeah, we, we've also had a lot more research driven content. You know, we had like 3DAO, we had, you know. Jeremy Howard, we had more folks like that.[00:00:47] AI Engineering: The Rise and Impact[00:00:47] Alessio: I think we want to do more of that too in the new year, like having, uh, some of the Gemini folks, both on the research and the applied side.[00:00:54] Alessio: Yeah, but it's been a ton of fun. I think we both started, I wouldn't say as a joke, we were kind of like, Oh, we [00:01:00] should do a podcast. And I think we kind of caught the right wave, obviously. And I think your rise of the AI engineer posts just kind of get people. Sombra to congregate, and then the AI engineer summit.[00:01:11] Alessio: And that's why when I look at our growth chart, it's kind of like a proxy for like the AI engineering industry as a whole, which is almost like, like, even if we don't do that much, we keep growing just because there's so many more AI engineers. So did you expect that growth or did you expect that would take longer for like the AI engineer thing to kind of like become, you know, everybody talks about it today.[00:01:32] swyx: So, the sign of that, that we have won is that Gartner puts it at the top of the hype curve right now. So Gartner has called the peak in AI engineering. I did not expect, um, to what level. I knew that I was correct when I called it because I did like two months of work going into that. But I didn't know, You know, how quickly it could happen, and obviously there's a chance that I could be wrong.[00:01:52] swyx: But I think, like, most people have come around to that concept. Hacker News hates it, which is a good sign. But there's enough people that have defined it, you know, GitHub, when [00:02:00] they launched GitHub Models, which is the Hugging Face clone, they put AI engineers in the banner, like, above the fold, like, in big So I think it's like kind of arrived as a meaningful and useful definition.[00:02:12] swyx: I think people are trying to figure out where the boundaries are. I think that was a lot of the quote unquote drama that happens behind the scenes at the World's Fair in June. Because I think there's a lot of doubt or questions about where ML engineering stops and AI engineering starts. That's a useful debate to be had.[00:02:29] swyx: In some sense, I actually anticipated that as well. So I intentionally did not. Put a firm definition there because most of the successful definitions are necessarily underspecified and it's actually useful to have different perspectives and you don't have to specify everything from the outset.[00:02:45] Alessio: Yeah, I was at um, AWS reInvent and the line to get into like the AI engineering talk, so to speak, which is, you know, applied AI and whatnot was like, there are like hundreds of people just in line to go in.[00:02:56] Alessio: I think that's kind of what enabled me. People, right? Which is what [00:03:00] you kind of talked about. It's like, Hey, look, you don't actually need a PhD, just, yeah, just use the model. And then maybe we'll talk about some of the blind spots that you get as an engineer with the earlier posts that we also had on on the sub stack.[00:03:11] Alessio: But yeah, it's been a heck of a heck of a two years.[00:03:14] swyx: Yeah.[00:03:15] Latent Space Live and AI Conferences[00:03:15] swyx: You know, I was, I was trying to view the conference as like, so NeurIPS is I think like 16, 17, 000 people. And the Latent Space Live event that we held there was 950 signups. I think. The AI world, the ML world is still very much research heavy. And that's as it should be because ML is very much in a research phase.[00:03:34] swyx: But as we move this entire field into production, I think that ratio inverts into becoming more engineering heavy. So at least I think engineering should be on the same level, even if it's never as prestigious, like it'll always be low status because at the end of the day, you're manipulating APIs or whatever.[00:03:51] swyx: But Yeah, wrapping GPTs, but there's going to be an increasing stack and an art to doing these, these things well. And I, you know, I [00:04:00] think that's what we're focusing on for the podcast, the conference and basically everything I do seems to make sense. And I think we'll, we'll talk about the trends here that apply.[00:04:09] swyx: It's, it's just very strange. So, like, there's a mix of, like, keeping on top of research while not being a researcher and then putting that research into production. So, like, people always ask me, like, why are you covering Neuralibs? Like, this is a ML research conference and I'm like, well, yeah, I mean, we're not going to, to like, understand everything Or reproduce every single paper, but the stuff that is being found here is going to make it through into production at some point, you hope.[00:04:32] swyx: And then actually like when I talk to the researchers, they actually get very excited because they're like, oh, you guys are actually caring about how this goes into production and that's what they really really want. The measure of success is previously just peer review, right? Getting 7s and 8s on their um, Academic review conferences and stuff like citations is one metric, but money is a better metric.[00:04:51] Alessio: Money is a better metric. Yeah, and there were about 2200 people on the live stream or something like that. Yeah, yeah. Hundred on the live stream. So [00:05:00] I try my best to moderate, but it was a lot spicier in person with Jonathan and, and Dylan. Yeah, that it was in the chat on YouTube.[00:05:06] swyx: I would say that I actually also created.[00:05:09] swyx: Layen Space Live in order to address flaws that are perceived in academic conferences. This is not NeurIPS specific, it's ICML, NeurIPS. Basically, it's very sort of oriented towards the PhD student, uh, market, job market, right? Like literally all, basically everyone's there to advertise their research and skills and get jobs.[00:05:28] swyx: And then obviously all the, the companies go there to hire them. And I think that's great for the individual researchers, but for people going there to get info is not great because you have to read between the lines, bring a ton of context in order to understand every single paper. So what is missing is effectively what I ended up doing, which is domain by domain, go through and recap the best of the year.[00:05:48] swyx: Survey the field. And there are, like NeurIPS had a, uh, I think ICML had a like a position paper track, NeurIPS added a benchmarks, uh, datasets track. These are ways in which to address that [00:06:00] issue. Uh, there's always workshops as well. Every, every conference has, you know, a last day of workshops and stuff that provide more of an overview.[00:06:06] swyx: But they're not specifically prompted to do so. And I think really, uh, Organizing a conference is just about getting good speakers and giving them the correct prompts. And then they will just go and do that thing and they do a very good job of it. So I think Sarah did a fantastic job with the startups prompt.[00:06:21] swyx: I can't list everybody, but we did best of 2024 in startups, vision, open models. Post transformers, synthetic data, small models, and agents. And then the last one was the, uh, and then we also did a quick one on reasoning with Nathan Lambert. And then the last one, obviously, was the debate that people were very hyped about.[00:06:39] swyx: It was very awkward. And I'm really, really thankful for John Franco, basically, who stepped up to challenge Dylan. Because Dylan was like, yeah, I'll do it. But He was pro scaling. And I think everyone who is like in AI is pro scaling, right? So you need somebody who's ready to publicly say, no, we've hit a wall.[00:06:57] swyx: So that means you're saying Sam Altman's wrong. [00:07:00] You're saying, um, you know, everyone else is wrong. It helps that this was the day before Ilya went on, went up on stage and then said pre training has hit a wall. And data has hit a wall. So actually Jonathan ended up winning, and then Ilya supported that statement, and then Noam Brown on the last day further supported that statement as well.[00:07:17] swyx: So it's kind of interesting that I think the consensus kind of going in was that we're not done scaling, like you should believe in a better lesson. And then, four straight days in a row, you had Sepp Hochreiter, who is the creator of the LSTM, along with everyone's favorite OG in AI, which is Juergen Schmidhuber.[00:07:34] swyx: He said that, um, we're pre trading inside a wall, or like, we've run into a different kind of wall. And then we have, you know John Frankel, Ilya, and then Noam Brown are all saying variations of the same thing, that we have hit some kind of wall in the status quo of what pre trained, scaling large pre trained models has looked like, and we need a new thing.[00:07:54] swyx: And obviously the new thing for people is some make, either people are calling it inference time compute or test time [00:08:00] compute. I think the collective terminology has been inference time, and I think that makes sense because test time, calling it test, meaning, has a very pre trained bias, meaning that the only reason for running inference at all is to test your model.[00:08:11] swyx: That is not true. Right. Yeah. So, so, I quite agree that. OpenAI seems to have adopted, or the community seems to have adopted this terminology of ITC instead of TTC. And that, that makes a lot of sense because like now we care about inference, even right down to compute optimality. Like I actually interviewed this author who recovered or reviewed the Chinchilla paper.[00:08:31] swyx: Chinchilla paper is compute optimal training, but what is not stated in there is it's pre trained compute optimal training. And once you start caring about inference, compute optimal training, you have a different scaling law. And in a way that we did not know last year.[00:08:45] Alessio: I wonder, because John is, he's also on the side of attention is all you need.[00:08:49] Alessio: Like he had the bet with Sasha. So I'm curious, like he doesn't believe in scaling, but he thinks the transformer, I wonder if he's still. So, so,[00:08:56] swyx: so he, obviously everything is nuanced and you know, I told him to play a character [00:09:00] for this debate, right? So he actually does. Yeah. He still, he still believes that we can scale more.[00:09:04] swyx: Uh, he just assumed the character to be very game for, for playing this debate. So even more kudos to him that he assumed a position that he didn't believe in and still won the debate.[00:09:16] Alessio: Get rekt, Dylan. Um, do you just want to quickly run through some of these things? Like, uh, Sarah's presentation, just the highlights.[00:09:24] swyx: Yeah, we can't go through everyone's slides, but I pulled out some things as a factor of, like, stuff that we were going to talk about. And we'll[00:09:30] Alessio: publish[00:09:31] swyx: the rest. Yeah, we'll publish on this feed the best of 2024 in those domains. And hopefully people can benefit from the work that our speakers have done.[00:09:39] swyx: But I think it's, uh, these are just good slides. And I've been, I've been looking for a sort of end of year recaps from, from people.[00:09:44] The Competitive AI Landscape[00:09:44] swyx: The field has progressed a lot. You know, I think the max ELO in 2023 on LMSys used to be 1200 for LMSys ELOs. And now everyone is at least at, uh, 1275 in their ELOs, and this is across Gemini, Chadjibuti, [00:10:00] Grok, O1.[00:10:01] swyx: ai, which with their E Large model, and Enthopic, of course. It's a very, very competitive race. There are multiple Frontier labs all racing, but there is a clear tier zero Frontier. And then there's like a tier one. It's like, I wish I had everything else. Tier zero is extremely competitive. It's effectively now three horse race between Gemini, uh, Anthropic and OpenAI.[00:10:21] swyx: I would say that people are still holding out a candle for XAI. XAI, I think, for some reason, because their API was very slow to roll out, is not included in these metrics. So it's actually quite hard to put on there. As someone who also does charts, XAI is continually snubbed because they don't work well with the benchmarking people.[00:10:42] swyx: Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a little trivia for why XAI always gets ignored. The other thing is market share. So these are slides from Sarah. We have it up on the screen. It has gone from very heavily open AI. So we have some numbers and estimates. These are from RAMP. Estimates of open AI market share in [00:11:00] December 2023.[00:11:01] swyx: And this is basically, what is it, GPT being 95 percent of production traffic. And I think if you correlate that with stuff that we asked. Harrison Chase on the LangChain episode, it was true. And then CLAUD 3 launched mid middle of this year. I think CLAUD 3 launched in March, CLAUD 3. 5 Sonnet was in June ish.[00:11:23] swyx: And you can start seeing the market share shift towards opening, uh, towards that topic, uh, very, very aggressively. The more recent one is Gemini. So if I scroll down a little bit, this is an even more recent dataset. So RAM's dataset ends in September 2 2. 2024. Gemini has basically launched a price war at the low end, uh, with Gemini Flash, uh, being basically free for personal use.[00:11:44] swyx: Like, I think people don't understand the free tier. It's something like a billion tokens per day. Unless you're trying to abuse it, you cannot really exhaust your free tier on Gemini. They're really trying to get you to use it. They know they're in like third place, um, fourth place, depending how you, how you count.[00:11:58] swyx: And so they're going after [00:12:00] the Lower tier first, and then, you know, maybe the upper tier later, but yeah, Gemini Flash, according to OpenRouter, is now 50 percent of their OpenRouter requests. Obviously, these are the small requests. These are small, cheap requests that are mathematically going to be more.[00:12:15] swyx: The smart ones obviously are still going to OpenAI. But, you know, it's a very, very big shift in the market. Like basically 2023, 2022, To going into 2024 opening has gone from nine five market share to Yeah. Reasonably somewhere between 50 to 75 market share.[00:12:29] Alessio: Yeah. I'm really curious how ramped does the attribution to the model?[00:12:32] Alessio: If it's API, because I think it's all credit card spin. . Well, but it's all, the credit card doesn't say maybe. Maybe the, maybe when they do expenses, they upload the PDF, but yeah, the, the German I think makes sense. I think that was one of my main 2024 takeaways that like. The best small model companies are the large labs, which is not something I would have thought that the open source kind of like long tail would be like the small model.[00:12:53] swyx: Yeah, different sizes of small models we're talking about here, right? Like so small model here for Gemini is AB, [00:13:00] right? Uh, mini. We don't know what the small model size is, but yeah, it's probably in the double digits or maybe single digits, but probably double digits. The open source community has kind of focused on the one to three B size.[00:13:11] swyx: Mm-hmm . Yeah. Maybe[00:13:12] swyx: zero, maybe 0.5 B uh, that's moon dream and that is small for you then, then that's great. It makes sense that we, we have a range for small now, which is like, may, maybe one to five B. Yeah. I'll even put that at, at, at the high end. And so this includes Gemma from Gemini as well. But also includes the Apple Foundation models, which I think Apple Foundation is 3B.[00:13:32] Alessio: Yeah. No, that's great. I mean, I think in the start small just meant cheap. I think today small is actually a more nuanced discussion, you know, that people weren't really having before.[00:13:43] swyx: Yeah, we can keep going. This is a slide that I smiley disagree with Sarah. She's pointing to the scale SEAL leaderboard. I think the Researchers that I talked with at NeurIPS were kind of positive on this because basically you need private test [00:14:00] sets to prevent contamination.[00:14:02] swyx: And Scale is one of maybe three or four people this year that has really made an effort in doing a credible private test set leaderboard. Llama405B does well compared to Gemini and GPT 40. And I think that's good. I would say that. You know, it's good to have an open model that is that big, that does well on those metrics.[00:14:23] swyx: But anyone putting 405B in production will tell you, if you scroll down a little bit to the artificial analysis numbers, that it is very slow and very expensive to infer. Um, it doesn't even fit on like one node. of, uh, of H100s. Cerebras will be happy to tell you they can serve 4 or 5B on their super large chips.[00:14:42] swyx: But, um, you know, if you need to do anything custom to it, you're still kind of constrained. So, is 4 or 5B really that relevant? Like, I think most people are basically saying that they only use 4 or 5B as a teacher model to distill down to something. Even Meta is doing it. So with Lama 3. [00:15:00] 3 launched, they only launched the 70B because they use 4 or 5B to distill the 70B.[00:15:03] swyx: So I don't know if like open source is keeping up. I think they're the, the open source industrial complex is very invested in telling you that the, if the gap is narrowing, I kind of disagree. I think that the gap is widening with O1. I think there are very, very smart people trying to narrow that gap and they should.[00:15:22] swyx: I really wish them success, but you cannot use a chart that is nearing 100 in your saturation chart. And look, the distance between open source and closed source is narrowing. Of course it's going to narrow because you're near 100. This is stupid. But in metrics that matter, is open source narrowing?[00:15:38] swyx: Probably not for O1 for a while. And it's really up to the open source guys to figure out if they can match O1 or not.[00:15:46] Alessio: I think inference time compute is bad for open source just because, you know, Doc can donate the flops at training time, but he cannot donate the flops at inference time. So it's really hard to like actually keep up on that axis.[00:15:59] Alessio: Big, big business [00:16:00] model shift. So I don't know what that means for the GPU clouds. I don't know what that means for the hyperscalers, but obviously the big labs have a lot of advantage. Because, like, it's not a static artifact that you're putting the compute in. You're kind of doing that still, but then you're putting a lot of computed inference too.[00:16:17] swyx: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Um, I mean, Llama4 will be reasoning oriented. We talked with Thomas Shalom. Um, kudos for getting that episode together. That was really nice. Good, well timed. Actually, I connected with the AI meta guy, uh, at NeurIPS, and, um, yeah, we're going to coordinate something for Llama4. Yeah, yeah,[00:16:32] Alessio: and our friend, yeah.[00:16:33] Alessio: Clara Shi just joined to lead the business agent side. So I'm sure we'll have her on in the new year.[00:16:39] swyx: Yeah. So, um, my comment on, on the business model shift, this is super interesting. Apparently it is wide knowledge that OpenAI wanted more than 6. 6 billion dollars for their fundraise. They wanted to raise, you know, higher, and they did not.[00:16:51] swyx: And what that means is basically like, it's very convenient that we're not getting GPT 5, which would have been a larger pre train. We should have a lot of upfront money. And [00:17:00] instead we're, we're converting fixed costs into variable costs, right. And passing it on effectively to the customer. And it's so much easier to take margin there because you can directly attribute it to like, Oh, you're using this more.[00:17:12] swyx: Therefore you, you pay more of the cost and I'll just slap a margin in there. So like that lets you control your growth margin and like tie your. Your spend, or your sort of inference spend, accordingly. And it's just really interesting to, that this change in the sort of inference paradigm has arrived exactly at the same time that the funding environment for pre training is effectively drying up, kind of.[00:17:36] swyx: I feel like maybe the VCs are very in tune with research anyway, so like, they would have noticed this, but, um, it's just interesting.[00:17:43] Alessio: Yeah, and I was looking back at our yearly recap of last year. Yeah. And the big thing was like the mixed trial price fights, you know, and I think now it's almost like there's nowhere to go, like, you know, Gemini Flash is like basically giving it away for free.[00:17:55] Alessio: So I think this is a good way for the labs to generate more revenue and pass down [00:18:00] some of the compute to the customer. I think they're going to[00:18:02] swyx: keep going. I think that 2, will come.[00:18:05] Alessio: Yeah, I know. Totally. I mean, next year, the first thing I'm doing is signing up for Devin. Signing up for the pro chat GBT.[00:18:12] Alessio: Just to try. I just want to see what does it look like to spend a thousand dollars a month on AI?[00:18:17] swyx: Yes. Yes. I think if your, if your, your job is a, at least AI content creator or VC or, you know, someone who, whose job it is to stay on, stay on top of things, you should already be spending like a thousand dollars a month on, on stuff.[00:18:28] swyx: And then obviously easy to spend, hard to use. You have to actually use. The good thing is that actually Google lets you do a lot of stuff for free now. So like deep research. That they just launched. Uses a ton of inference and it's, it's free while it's in preview.[00:18:45] Alessio: Yeah. They need to put that in Lindy.[00:18:47] Alessio: I've been using Lindy lately. I've been a built a bunch of things once we had flow because I liked the new thing. It's pretty good. I even did a phone call assistant. Um, yeah, they just launched Lindy voice. Yeah, I think once [00:19:00] they get advanced voice mode like capability today, still like speech to text, you can kind of tell.[00:19:06] Alessio: Um, but it's good for like reservations and things like that. So I have a meeting prepper thing. And so[00:19:13] swyx: it's good. Okay. I feel like we've, we've covered a lot of stuff. Uh, I, yeah, I, you know, I think We will go over the individual, uh, talks in a separate episode. Uh, I don't want to take too much time with, uh, this stuff, but that suffice to say that there is a lot of progress in each field.[00:19:28] swyx: Uh, we covered vision. Basically this is all like the audience voting for what they wanted. And then I just invited the best people I could find in each audience, especially agents. Um, Graham, who I talked to at ICML in Vienna, he is currently still number one. It's very hard to stay on top of SweetBench.[00:19:45] swyx: OpenHand is currently still number one. switchbench full, which is the hardest one. He had very good thoughts on agents, which I, which I'll highlight for people. Everyone is saying 2025 is the year of agents, just like they said last year. And, uh, but he had [00:20:00] thoughts on like eight parts of what are the frontier problems to solve in agents.[00:20:03] swyx: And so I'll highlight that talk as well.[00:20:05] Alessio: Yeah. The number six, which is the Hacken agents learn more about the environment, has been a Super interesting to us as well, just to think through, because, yeah, how do you put an agent in an enterprise where most things in an enterprise have never been public, you know, a lot of the tooling, like the code bases and things like that.[00:20:23] Alessio: So, yeah, there's not indexing and reg. Well, yeah, but it's more like. You can't really rag things that are not documented. But people know them based on how they've been doing it. You know, so I think there's almost this like, you know, Oh, institutional knowledge. Yeah, the boring word is kind of like a business process extraction.[00:20:38] Alessio: Yeah yeah, I see. It's like, how do you actually understand how these things are done? I see. Um, and I think today the, the problem is that, Yeah, the agents are, that most people are building are good at following instruction, but are not as good as like extracting them from you. Um, so I think that will be a big unlock just to touch quickly on the Jeff Dean thing.[00:20:55] Alessio: I thought it was pretty, I mean, we'll link it in the, in the things, but. I think the main [00:21:00] focus was like, how do you use ML to optimize the systems instead of just focusing on ML to do something else? Yeah, I think speculative decoding, we had, you know, Eugene from RWKB on the podcast before, like he's doing a lot of that with Fetterless AI.[00:21:12] swyx: Everyone is. I would say it's the norm. I'm a little bit uncomfortable with how much it costs, because it does use more of the GPU per call. But because everyone is so keen on fast inference, then yeah, makes sense.[00:21:24] Alessio: Exactly. Um, yeah, but we'll link that. Obviously Jeff is great.[00:21:30] swyx: Jeff is, Jeff's talk was more, it wasn't focused on Gemini.[00:21:33] swyx: I think people got the wrong impression from my tweet. It's more about how Google approaches ML and uses ML to design systems and then systems feedback into ML. And I think this ties in with Lubna's talk.[00:21:45] Synthetic Data and Future Trends[00:21:45] swyx: on synthetic data where it's basically the story of bootstrapping of humans and AI in AI research or AI in production.[00:21:53] swyx: So her talk was on synthetic data, where like how much synthetic data has grown in 2024 in the pre training side, the post training side, [00:22:00] and the eval side. And I think Jeff then also extended it basically to chips, uh, to chip design. So he'd spend a lot of time talking about alpha chip. And most of us in the audience are like, we're not working on hardware, man.[00:22:11] swyx: Like you guys are great. TPU is great. Okay. We'll buy TPUs.[00:22:14] Alessio: And then there was the earlier talk. Yeah. But, and then we have, uh, I don't know if we're calling them essays. What are we calling these? But[00:22:23] swyx: for me, it's just like bonus for late in space supporters, because I feel like they haven't been getting anything.[00:22:29] swyx: And then I wanted a more high frequency way to write stuff. Like that one I wrote in an afternoon. I think basically we now have an answer to what Ilya saw. It's one year since. The blip. And we know what he saw in 2014. We know what he saw in 2024. We think we know what he sees in 2024. He gave some hints and then we have vague indications of what he saw in 2023.[00:22:54] swyx: So that was the Oh, and then 2016 as well, because of this lawsuit with Elon, OpenAI [00:23:00] is publishing emails from Sam's, like, his personal text messages to Siobhan, Zelis, or whatever. So, like, we have emails from Ilya saying, this is what we're seeing in OpenAI, and this is why we need to scale up GPUs. And I think it's very prescient in 2016 to write that.[00:23:16] swyx: And so, like, it is exactly, like, basically his insights. It's him and Greg, basically just kind of driving the scaling up of OpenAI, while they're still playing Dota. They're like, no, like, we see the path here.[00:23:30] Alessio: Yeah, and it's funny, yeah, they even mention, you know, we can only train on 1v1 Dota. We need to train on 5v5, and that takes too many GPUs.[00:23:37] Alessio: Yeah,[00:23:37] swyx: and at least for me, I can speak for myself, like, I didn't see the path from Dota to where we are today. I think even, maybe if you ask them, like, they wouldn't necessarily draw a straight line. Yeah,[00:23:47] Alessio: no, definitely. But I think like that was like the whole idea of almost like the RL and we talked about this with Nathan on his podcast.[00:23:55] Alessio: It's like with RL, you can get very good at specific things, but then you can't really like generalize as much. And I [00:24:00] think the language models are like the opposite, which is like, you're going to throw all this data at them and scale them up, but then you really need to drive them home on a specific task later on.[00:24:08] Alessio: And we'll talk about the open AI reinforcement, fine tuning, um, announcement too, and all of that. But yeah, I think like scale is all you need. That's kind of what Elia will be remembered for. And I think just maybe to clarify on like the pre training is over thing that people love to tweet. I think the point of the talk was like everybody, we're scaling these chips, we're scaling the compute, but like the second ingredient which is data is not scaling at the same rate.[00:24:35] Alessio: So it's not necessarily pre training is over. It's kind of like What got us here won't get us there. In his email, he predicted like 10x growth every two years or something like that. And I think maybe now it's like, you know, you can 10x the chips again, but[00:24:49] swyx: I think it's 10x per year. Was it? I don't know.[00:24:52] Alessio: Exactly. And Moore's law is like 2x. So it's like, you know, much faster than that. And yeah, I like the fossil fuel of AI [00:25:00] analogy. It's kind of like, you know, the little background tokens thing. So the OpenAI reinforcement fine tuning is basically like, instead of fine tuning on data, you fine tune on a reward model.[00:25:09] Alessio: So it's basically like, instead of being data driven, it's like task driven. And I think people have tasks to do, they don't really have a lot of data. So I'm curious to see how that changes, how many people fine tune, because I think this is what people run into. It's like, Oh, you can fine tune llama. And it's like, okay, where do I get the data?[00:25:27] Alessio: To fine tune it on, you know, so it's great that we're moving the thing. And then I really like he had this chart where like, you know, the brain mass and the body mass thing is basically like mammals that scaled linearly by brain and body size, and then humans kind of like broke off the slope. So it's almost like maybe the mammal slope is like the pre training slope.[00:25:46] Alessio: And then the post training slope is like the, the human one.[00:25:49] swyx: Yeah. I wonder what the. I mean, we'll know in 10 years, but I wonder what the y axis is for, for Ilya's SSI. We'll try to get them on.[00:25:57] Alessio: Ilya, if you're listening, you're [00:26:00] welcome here. Yeah, and then he had, you know, what comes next, like agent, synthetic data, inference, compute, I thought all of that was like that.[00:26:05] Alessio: I don't[00:26:05] swyx: think he was dropping any alpha there. Yeah, yeah, yeah.[00:26:07] Alessio: Yeah. Any other new reps? Highlights?[00:26:10] swyx: I think that there was comparatively a lot more work. Oh, by the way, I need to plug that, uh, my friend Yi made this, like, little nice paper. Yeah, that was really[00:26:20] swyx: nice.[00:26:20] swyx: Uh, of, uh, of, like, all the, he's, she called it must read papers of 2024.[00:26:26] swyx: So I laid out some of these at NeurIPS, and it was just gone. Like, everyone just picked it up. Because people are dying for, like, little guidance and visualizations And so, uh, I thought it was really super nice that we got there.[00:26:38] Alessio: Should we do a late in space book for each year? Uh, I thought about it. For each year we should.[00:26:42] Alessio: Coffee table book. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Put it in the will. Hi, Will. By the way, we haven't introduced you. He's our new, you know, general organist, Jamie. You need to[00:26:52] swyx: pull up more things. One thing I saw that, uh, Okay, one fun one, and then one [00:27:00] more general one. So the fun one is this paper on agent collusion. This is a paper on steganography.[00:27:06] swyx: This is secret collusion among AI agents, multi agent deception via steganography. I tried to go to NeurIPS in order to find these kinds of papers because the real reason Like NeurIPS this year has a lottery system. A lot of people actually even go and don't buy tickets because they just go and attend the side events.[00:27:22] swyx: And then also the people who go and end up crowding around the most popular papers, which you already know and already read them before you showed up to NeurIPS. So the only reason you go there is to talk to the paper authors, but there's like something like 10, 000 other. All these papers out there that, you know, are just people's work that they, that they did on the air and they failed to get attention for one reason or another.[00:27:42] swyx: And this was one of them. Uh, it was like all the way at the back. And this is a deep mind paper that actually focuses on collusion between AI agents, uh, by hiding messages in the text that they generate. Uh, so that's what steganography is. So a very simple example would be the first letter of every word.[00:27:57] swyx: If you Pick that out, you know, and the code sends a [00:28:00] different message than that. But something I've always emphasized is to LLMs, we read left to right. LLMs can read up, down, sideways, you know, in random character order. And it's the same to them as it is to us. So if we were ever to get You know, self motivated, underlined LLMs that we're trying to collaborate to take over the planet.[00:28:19] swyx: This would be how they do it. They spread messages among us in the messages that we generate. And he developed a scaling law for that. So he marked, I'm showing it on screen right now, the emergence of this phenomenon. Basically, for example, for Cypher encoding, GPT 2, Lama 2, mixed trial, GPT 3. 5, zero capabilities, and sudden 4.[00:28:40] swyx: And this is the kind of Jason Wei type emergence properties that people kind of look for. I think what made this paper stand out as well, so he developed the benchmark for steganography collusion, and he also focused on shelling point collusion, which is very low coordination. For agreeing on a decoding encoding format, you kind of need to have some [00:29:00] agreement on that.[00:29:00] swyx: But, but shelling point means like very, very low or almost no coordination. So for example, if I, if I ask someone, if the only message I give you is meet me in New York and you're not aware. Or when you would probably meet me at Grand Central Station. That is the Grand Central Station is a shelling point.[00:29:16] swyx: And it's probably somewhere, somewhere during the day. That is the shelling point of New York is Grand Central. To that extent, shelling points for steganography are things like the, the, the common decoding methods that we talked about. It will be interesting at some point in the future when we are worried about alignment.[00:29:30] swyx: It is not interesting today, but it's interesting that DeepMind is already thinking about this.[00:29:36] Alessio: I think that's like one of the hardest things about NeurIPS. It's like the long tail. I[00:29:41] swyx: found a pricing guy. I'm going to feature him on the podcast. Basically, this guy from NVIDIA worked out the optimal pricing for language models.[00:29:51] swyx: It's basically an econometrics paper at NeurIPS, where everyone else is talking about GPUs. And the guy with the GPUs is[00:29:57] Alessio: talking[00:29:57] swyx: about economics instead. [00:30:00] That was the sort of fun one. So the focus I saw is that model papers at NeurIPS are kind of dead. No one really presents models anymore. It's just data sets.[00:30:12] swyx: This is all the grad students are working on. So like there was a data sets track and then I was looking around like, I was like, you don't need a data sets track because every paper is a data sets paper. And so data sets and benchmarks, they're kind of flip sides of the same thing. So Yeah. Cool. Yeah, if you're a grad student, you're a GPU boy, you kind of work on that.[00:30:30] swyx: And then the, the sort of big model that people walk around and pick the ones that they like, and then they use it in their models. And that's, that's kind of how it develops. I, I feel like, um, like, like you didn't last year, you had people like Hao Tian who worked on Lava, which is take Lama and add Vision.[00:30:47] swyx: And then obviously actually I hired him and he added Vision to Grok. Now he's the Vision Grok guy. This year, I don't think there was any of those.[00:30:55] Alessio: What were the most popular, like, orals? Last year it was like the [00:31:00] Mixed Monarch, I think, was like the most attended. Yeah, uh, I need to look it up. Yeah, I mean, if nothing comes to mind, that's also kind of like an answer in a way.[00:31:10] Alessio: But I think last year there was a lot of interest in, like, furthering models and, like, different architectures and all of that.[00:31:16] swyx: I will say that I felt the orals, oral picks this year were not very good. Either that or maybe it's just a So that's the highlight of how I have changed in terms of how I view papers.[00:31:29] swyx: So like, in my estimation, two of the best papers in this year for datasets or data comp and refined web or fine web. These are two actually industrially used papers, not highlighted for a while. I think DCLM got the spotlight, FineWeb didn't even get the spotlight. So like, it's just that the picks were different.[00:31:48] swyx: But one thing that does get a lot of play that a lot of people are debating is the role that's scheduled. This is the schedule free optimizer paper from Meta from Aaron DeFazio. And this [00:32:00] year in the ML community, there's been a lot of chat about shampoo, soap, all the bathroom amenities for optimizing your learning rates.[00:32:08] swyx: And, uh, most people at the big labs are. Who I asked about this, um, say that it's cute, but it's not something that matters. I don't know, but it's something that was discussed and very, very popular. 4Wars[00:32:19] Alessio: of AI recap maybe, just quickly. Um, where do you want to start? Data?[00:32:26] swyx: So to remind people, this is the 4Wars piece that we did as one of our earlier recaps of this year.[00:32:31] swyx: And the belligerents are on the left, journalists, writers, artists, anyone who owns IP basically, New York Times, Stack Overflow, Reddit, Getty, Sarah Silverman, George RR Martin. Yeah, and I think this year we can add Scarlett Johansson to that side of the fence. So anyone suing, open the eye, basically. I actually wanted to get a snapshot of all the lawsuits.[00:32:52] swyx: I'm sure some lawyer can do it. That's the data quality war. On the right hand side, we have the synthetic data people, and I think we talked about Lumna's talk, you know, [00:33:00] really showing how much synthetic data has come along this year. I think there was a bit of a fight between scale. ai and the synthetic data community, because scale.[00:33:09] swyx: ai published a paper saying that synthetic data doesn't work. Surprise, surprise, scale. ai is the leading vendor of non synthetic data. Only[00:33:17] Alessio: cage free annotated data is useful.[00:33:21] swyx: So I think there's some debate going on there, but I don't think it's much debate anymore that at least synthetic data, for the reasons that are blessed in Luna's talk, Makes sense.[00:33:32] swyx: I don't know if you have any perspectives there.[00:33:34] Alessio: I think, again, going back to the reinforcement fine tuning, I think that will change a little bit how people think about it. I think today people mostly use synthetic data, yeah, for distillation and kind of like fine tuning a smaller model from like a larger model.[00:33:46] Alessio: I'm not super aware of how the frontier labs use it outside of like the rephrase, the web thing that Apple also did. But yeah, I think it'll be. Useful. I think like whether or not that gets us the big [00:34:00] next step, I think that's maybe like TBD, you know, I think people love talking about data because it's like a GPU poor, you know, I think, uh, synthetic data is like something that people can do, you know, so they feel more opinionated about it compared to, yeah, the optimizers stuff, which is like,[00:34:17] swyx: they don't[00:34:17] Alessio: really work[00:34:18] swyx: on.[00:34:18] swyx: I think that there is an angle to the reasoning synthetic data. So this year, we covered in the paper club, the star series of papers. So that's star, Q star, V star. It basically helps you to synthesize reasoning steps, or at least distill reasoning steps from a verifier. And if you look at the OpenAI RFT, API that they released, or that they announced, basically they're asking you to submit graders, or they choose from a preset list of graders.[00:34:49] swyx: Basically It feels like a way to create valid synthetic data for them to fine tune their reasoning paths on. Um, so I think that is another angle where it starts to make sense. And [00:35:00] so like, it's very funny that basically all the data quality wars between Let's say the music industry or like the newspaper publishing industry or the textbooks industry on the big labs.[00:35:11] swyx: It's all of the pre training era. And then like the new era, like the reasoning era, like nobody has any problem with all the reasoning, especially because it's all like sort of math and science oriented with, with very reasonable graders. I think the more interesting next step is how does it generalize beyond STEM?[00:35:27] swyx: We've been using O1 for And I would say like for summarization and creative writing and instruction following, I think it's underrated. I started using O1 in our intro songs before we killed the intro songs, but it's very good at writing lyrics. You know, I can actually say like, I think one of the O1 pro demos.[00:35:46] swyx: All of these things that Noam was showing was that, you know, you can write an entire paragraph or three paragraphs without using the letter A, right?[00:35:53] Creative Writing with AI[00:35:53] swyx: So like, like literally just anything instead of token, like not even token level, character level manipulation and [00:36:00] counting and instruction following. It's, uh, it's very, very strong.[00:36:02] swyx: And so no surprises when I ask it to rhyme, uh, and to, to create song lyrics, it's going to do that very much better than in previous models. So I think it's underrated for creative writing.[00:36:11] Alessio: Yeah.[00:36:12] Legal and Ethical Issues in AI[00:36:12] Alessio: What do you think is the rationale that they're going to have in court when they don't show you the thinking traces of O1, but then they want us to, like, they're getting sued for using other publishers data, you know, but then on their end, they're like, well, you shouldn't be using my data to then train your model.[00:36:29] Alessio: So I'm curious to see how that kind of comes. Yeah, I mean, OPA has[00:36:32] swyx: many ways to publish, to punish people without bringing, taking them to court. Already banned ByteDance for distilling their, their info. And so anyone caught distilling the chain of thought will be just disallowed to continue on, on, on the API.[00:36:44] swyx: And it's fine. It's no big deal. Like, I don't even think that's an issue at all, just because the chain of thoughts are pretty well hidden. Like you have to work very, very hard to, to get it to leak. And then even when it leaks the chain of thought, you don't know if it's, if it's [00:37:00] The bigger concern is actually that there's not that much IP hiding behind it, that Cosign, which we talked about, we talked to him on Dev Day, can just fine tune 4.[00:37:13] swyx: 0 to beat 0. 1 Cloud SONET so far is beating O1 on coding tasks without, at least O1 preview, without being a reasoning model, same for Gemini Pro or Gemini 2. 0. So like, how much is reasoning important? How much of a moat is there in this, like, All of these are proprietary sort of training data that they've presumably accomplished.[00:37:34] swyx: Because even DeepSeek was able to do it. And they had, you know, two months notice to do this, to do R1. So, it's actually unclear how much moat there is. Obviously, you know, if you talk to the Strawberry team, they'll be like, yeah, I mean, we spent the last two years doing this. So, we don't know. And it's going to be Interesting because there'll be a lot of noise from people who say they have inference time compute and actually don't because they just have fancy chain of thought.[00:38:00][00:38:00] swyx: And then there's other people who actually do have very good chain of thought. And you will not see them on the same level as OpenAI because OpenAI has invested a lot in building up the mythology of their team. Um, which makes sense. Like the real answer is somewhere in between.[00:38:13] Alessio: Yeah, I think that's kind of like the main data war story developing.[00:38:18] The Data War: GPU Poor vs. GPU Rich[00:38:18] Alessio: GPU poor versus GPU rich. Yeah. Where do you think we are? I think there was, again, going back to like the small model thing, there was like a time in which the GPU poor were kind of like the rebel faction working on like these models that were like open and small and cheap. And I think today people don't really care as much about GPUs anymore.[00:38:37] Alessio: You also see it in the price of the GPUs. Like, you know, that market is kind of like plummeted because there's people don't want to be, they want to be GPU free. They don't even want to be poor. They just want to be, you know, completely without them. Yeah. How do you think about this war? You[00:38:52] swyx: can tell me about this, but like, I feel like the, the appetite for GPU rich startups, like the, you know, the, the funding plan is we will raise 60 million and [00:39:00] we'll give 50 of that to NVIDIA.[00:39:01] swyx: That is gone, right? Like, no one's, no one's pitching that. This was literally the plan, the exact plan of like, I can name like four or five startups, you know, this time last year. So yeah, GPU rich startups gone.[00:39:12] The Rise of GPU Ultra Rich[00:39:12] swyx: But I think like, The GPU ultra rich, the GPU ultra high net worth is still going. So, um, now we're, you know, we had Leopold's essay on the trillion dollar cluster.[00:39:23] swyx: We're not quite there yet. We have multiple labs, um, you know, XAI very famously, you know, Jensen Huang praising them for being. Best boy number one in spinning up 100, 000 GPU cluster in like 12 days or something. So likewise at Meta, likewise at OpenAI, likewise at the other labs as well. So like the GPU ultra rich are going to keep doing that because I think partially it's an article of faith now that you just need it.[00:39:46] swyx: Like you don't even know what it's going to, what you're going to use it for. You just, you just need it. And it makes sense that if, especially if we're going into. More researchy territory than we are. So let's say 2020 to 2023 was [00:40:00] let's scale big models territory because we had GPT 3 in 2020 and we were like, okay, we'll go from 1.[00:40:05] swyx: 75b to 1. 8b, 1. 8t. And that was GPT 3 to GPT 4. Okay, that's done. As far as everyone is concerned, Opus 3. 5 is not coming out, GPT 4. 5 is not coming out, and Gemini 2, we don't have Pro, whatever. We've hit that wall. Maybe I'll call it the 2 trillion perimeter wall. We're not going to 10 trillion. No one thinks it's a good idea, at least from training costs, from the amount of data, or at least the inference.[00:40:36] swyx: Would you pay 10x the price of GPT Probably not. Like, like you want something else that, that is at least more useful. So it makes sense that people are pivoting in terms of their inference paradigm.[00:40:47] Emerging Trends in AI Models[00:40:47] swyx: And so when it's more researchy, then you actually need more just general purpose compute to mess around with, uh, at the exact same time that production deployments of the old, the previous paradigm is still ramping up,[00:40:58] swyx: um,[00:40:58] swyx: uh, pretty aggressively.[00:40:59] swyx: So [00:41:00] it makes sense that the GPU rich are growing. We have now interviewed both together and fireworks and replicates. Uh, we haven't done any scale yet. But I think Amazon, maybe kind of a sleeper one, Amazon, in a sense of like they, at reInvent, I wasn't expecting them to do so well, but they are now a foundation model lab.[00:41:18] swyx: It's kind of interesting. Um, I think, uh, you know, David went over there and started just creating models.[00:41:25] Alessio: Yeah, I mean, that's the power of prepaid contracts. I think like a lot of AWS customers, you know, they do this big reserve instance contracts and now they got to use their money. That's why so many startups.[00:41:37] Alessio: Get bought through the AWS marketplace so they can kind of bundle them together and prefer pricing.[00:41:42] swyx: Okay, so maybe GPU super rich doing very well, GPU middle class dead, and then GPU[00:41:48] Alessio: poor. I mean, my thing is like, everybody should just be GPU rich. There shouldn't really be, even the GPU poorest, it's like, does it really make sense to be GPU poor?[00:41:57] Alessio: Like, if you're GPU poor, you should just use the [00:42:00] cloud. Yes, you know, and I think there might be a future once we kind of like figure out what the size and shape of these models is where like the tiny box and these things come to fruition where like you can be GPU poor at home. But I think today is like, why are you working so hard to like get these models to run on like very small clusters where it's like, It's so cheap to run them.[00:42:21] Alessio: Yeah, yeah,[00:42:22] swyx: yeah. I think mostly people think it's cool. People think it's a stepping stone to scaling up. So they aspire to be GPU rich one day and they're working on new methods. Like news research, like probably the most deep tech thing they've done this year is Distro or whatever the new name is.[00:42:38] swyx: There's a lot of interest in heterogeneous computing, distributed computing. I tend generally to de emphasize that historically, but it may be coming to a time where it is starting to be relevant. I don't know. You know, SF compute launched their compute marketplace this year, and like, who's really using that?[00:42:53] swyx: Like, it's a bunch of small clusters, disparate types of compute, and if you can make that [00:43:00] useful, then that will be very beneficial to the broader community, but maybe still not the source of frontier models. It's just going to be a second tier of compute that is unlocked for people, and that's fine. But yeah, I mean, I think this year, I would say a lot more on device, We are, I now have Apple intelligence on my phone.[00:43:19] swyx: Doesn't do anything apart from summarize my notifications. But still, not bad. Like, it's multi modal.[00:43:25] Alessio: Yeah, the notification summaries are so and so in my experience.[00:43:29] swyx: Yeah, but they add, they add juice to life. And then, um, Chrome Nano, uh, Gemini Nano is coming out in Chrome. Uh, they're still feature flagged, but you can, you can try it now if you, if you use the, uh, the alpha.[00:43:40] swyx: And so, like, I, I think, like, you know, We're getting the sort of GPU poor version of a lot of these things coming out, and I think it's like quite useful. Like Windows as well, rolling out RWKB in sort of every Windows department is super cool. And I think the last thing that I never put in this GPU poor war, that I think I should now, [00:44:00] is the number of startups that are GPU poor but still scaling very well, as sort of wrappers on top of either a foundation model lab, or GPU Cloud.[00:44:10] swyx: GPU Cloud, it would be Suno. Suno, Ramp has rated as one of the top ranked, fastest growing startups of the year. Um, I think the last public number is like zero to 20 million this year in ARR and Suno runs on Moto. So Suno itself is not GPU rich, but they're just doing the training on, on Moto, uh, who we've also talked to on, on the podcast.[00:44:31] swyx: The other one would be Bolt, straight cloud wrapper. And, and, um, Again, another, now they've announced 20 million ARR, which is another step up from our 8 million that we put on the title. So yeah, I mean, it's crazy that all these GPU pores are finding a way while the GPU riches are also finding a way. And then the only failures, I kind of call this the GPU smiling curve, where the edges do well, because you're either close to the machines, and you're like [00:45:00] number one on the machines, or you're like close to the customers, and you're number one on the customer side.[00:45:03] swyx: And the people who are in the middle. Inflection, um, character, didn't do that great. I think character did the best of all of them. Like, you have a note in here that we apparently said that character's price tag was[00:45:15] Alessio: 1B.[00:45:15] swyx: Did I say that?[00:45:16] Alessio: Yeah. You said Google should just buy them for 1B. I thought it was a crazy number.[00:45:20] Alessio: Then they paid 2. 7 billion. I mean, for like,[00:45:22] swyx: yeah.[00:45:22] Alessio: What do you pay for node? Like, I don't know what the game world was like. Maybe the starting price was 1B. I mean, whatever it was, it worked out for everybody involved.[00:45:31] The Multi-Modality War[00:45:31] Alessio: Multimodality war. And this one, we never had text to video in the first version, which now is the hottest.[00:45:37] swyx: Yeah, I would say it's a subset of image, but yes.[00:45:40] Alessio: Yeah, well, but I think at the time it wasn't really something people were doing, and now we had VO2 just came out yesterday. Uh, Sora was released last month, last week. I've not tried Sora, because the day that I tried, it wasn't, yeah. I[00:45:54] swyx: think it's generally available now, you can go to Sora.[00:45:56] swyx: com and try it. Yeah, they had[00:45:58] Alessio: the outage. Which I [00:46:00] think also played a part into it. Small things. Yeah. What's the other model that you posted today that was on Replicate? Video or OneLive?[00:46:08] swyx: Yeah. Very, very nondescript name, but it is from Minimax, which I think is a Chinese lab. The Chinese labs do surprisingly well at the video models.[00:46:20] swyx: I'm not sure it's actually Chinese. I don't know. Hold me up to that. Yep. China. It's good. Yeah, the Chinese love video. What can I say? They have a lot of training data for video. Or a more relaxed regulatory environment.[00:46:37] Alessio: Uh, well, sure, in some way. Yeah, I don't think there's much else there. I think like, you know, on the image side, I think it's still open.[00:46:45] Alessio: Yeah, I mean,[00:46:46] swyx: 11labs is now a unicorn. So basically, what is multi modality war? Multi modality war is, do you specialize in a single modality, right? Or do you have GodModel that does all the modalities? So this is [00:47:00] definitely still going, in a sense of 11 labs, you know, now Unicorn, PicoLabs doing well, they launched Pico 2.[00:47:06] swyx: 0 recently, HeyGen, I think has reached 100 million ARR, Assembly, I don't know, but they have billboards all over the place, so I assume they're doing very, very well. So these are all specialist models, specialist models and specialist startups. And then there's the big labs who are doing the sort of all in one play.[00:47:24] swyx: And then here I would highlight Gemini 2 for having native image output. Have you seen the demos? Um, yeah, it's, it's hard to keep up. Literally they launched this last week and a shout out to Paige Bailey, who came to the Latent Space event to demo on the day of launch. And she wasn't prepared. She was just like, I'm just going to show you.[00:47:43] swyx: So they have voice. They have, you know, obviously image input, and then they obviously can code gen and all that. But the new one that OpenAI and Meta both have but they haven't launched yet is image output. So you can literally, um, I think their demo video was that you put in an image of a [00:48:00] car, and you ask for minor modifications to that car.[00:48:02] swyx: They can generate you that modification exactly as you asked. So there's no need for the stable diffusion or comfy UI workflow of like mask here and then like infill there in paint there and all that, all that stuff. This is small model nonsense. Big model people are like, huh, we got you in as everything in the transformer.[00:48:21] swyx: This is the multimodality war, which is, do you, do you bet on the God model or do you string together a whole bunch of, uh, Small models like a, like a chump. Yeah,[00:48:29] Alessio: I don't know, man. Yeah, that would be interesting. I mean, obviously I use Midjourney for all of our thumbnails. Um, they've been doing a ton on the product, I would say.[00:48:38] Alessio: They launched a new Midjourney editor thing. They've been doing a ton. Because I think, yeah, the motto is kind of like, Maybe, you know, people say black forest, the black forest models are better than mid journey on a pixel by pixel basis. But I think when you put it, put it together, have you tried[00:48:53] swyx: the same problems on black forest?[00:48:55] Alessio: Yes. But the problem is just like, you know, on black forest, it generates one image. And then it's like, you got to [00:49:00] regenerate. You don't have all these like UI things. Like what I do, no, but it's like time issue, you know, it's like a mid[00:49:06] swyx: journey. Call the API four times.[00:49:08] Alessio: No, but then there's no like variate.[00:49:10] Alessio: Like the good thing about mid journey is like, you just go in there and you're cooking. There's a lot of stuff that just makes it really easy. And I think people underestimate that. Like, it's not really a skill issue, because I'm paying mid journey, so it's a Black Forest skill issue, because I'm not paying them, you know?[00:49:24] Alessio: Yeah,[00:49:25] swyx: so, okay, so, uh, this is a UX thing, right? Like, you, you, you understand that, at least, we think that Black Forest should be able to do all that stuff. I will also shout out, ReCraft has come out, uh, on top of the image arena that, uh, artificial analysis has done, has apparently, uh, Flux's place. Is this still true?[00:49:41] swyx: So, Artificial Analysis is now a company. I highlighted them I think in one of the early AI Newses of the year. And they have launched a whole bunch of arenas. So, they're trying to take on LM Arena, Anastasios and crew. And they have an image arena. Oh yeah, Recraft v3 is now beating Flux 1. 1. Which is very surprising [00:50:00] because Flux And Black Forest Labs are the old stable diffusion crew who left stability after, um, the management issues.[00:50:06] swyx: So Recurve has come from nowhere to be the top image model. Uh, very, very strange. I would also highlight that Grok has now launched Aurora, which is, it's very interesting dynamics between Grok and Black Forest Labs because Grok's images were originally launched, uh, in partnership with Black Forest Labs as a, as a thin wrapper.[00:50:24] swyx: And then Grok was like, no, we'll make our own. And so they've made their own. I don't know, there are no APIs or benchmarks about it. They just announced it. So yeah, that's the multi modality war. I would say that so far, the small model, the dedicated model people are winning, because they are just focused on their tasks.[00:50:42] swyx: But the big model, People are always catching up. And the moment I saw the Gemini 2 demo of image editing, where I can put in an image and just request it and it does, that's how AI should work. Not like a whole bunch of complicated steps. So it really is something. And I think one frontier that we haven't [00:51:00] seen this year, like obviously video has done very well, and it will continue to grow.[00:51:03] swyx: You know, we only have Sora Turbo today, but at some point we'll get full Sora. Oh, at least the Hollywood Labs will get Fulsora. We haven't seen video to audio, or video synced to audio. And so the researchers that I talked to are already starting to talk about that as the next frontier. But there's still maybe like five more years of video left to actually be Soda.[00:51:23] swyx: I would say that Gemini's approach Compared to OpenAI, Gemini seems, or DeepMind's approach to video seems a lot more fully fledged than OpenAI. Because if you look at the ICML recap that I published that so far nobody has listened to, um, that people have listened to it. It's just a different, definitely different audience.[00:51:43] swyx: It's only seven hours long. Why are people not listening? It's like everything in Uh, so, so DeepMind has, is working on Genie. They also launched Genie 2 and VideoPoet. So, like, they have maybe four years advantage on world modeling that OpenAI does not have. Because OpenAI basically only started [00:52:00] Diffusion Transformers last year, you know, when they hired, uh, Bill Peebles.[00:52:03] swyx: So, DeepMind has, has a bit of advantage here, I would say, in, in, in showing, like, the reason that VO2, while one, They cherry pick their videos. So obviously it looks better than Sora, but the reason I would believe that VO2, uh, when it's fully launched will do very well is because they have all this background work in video that they've done for years.[00:52:22] swyx: Like, like last year's NeurIPS, I already was interviewing some of their video people. I forget their model name, but for, for people who are dedicated fans, they can go to NeurIPS 2023 and see, see that paper.[00:52:32] Alessio: And then last but not least, the LLMOS. We renamed it to Ragops, formerly known as[00:52:39] swyx: Ragops War. I put the latest chart on the Braintrust episode.[00:52:43] swyx: I think I'm going to separate these essays from the episode notes. So the reason I used to do that, by the way, is because I wanted to show up on Hacker News. I wanted the podcast to show up on Hacker News. So I always put an essay inside of there because Hacker News people like to read and not listen.[00:52:58] Alessio: So episode essays,[00:52:59] swyx: I remember [00:53:00] purchasing them separately. You say Lanchain Llama Index is still growing.[00:53:03] Alessio: Yeah, so I looked at the PyPy stats, you know. I don't care about stars. On PyPy you see Do you want to share your screen? Yes. I prefer to look at actual downloads, not at stars on GitHub. So if you look at, you know, Lanchain still growing.[00:53:20] Alessio: These are the last six months. Llama Index still growing. What I've basically seen is like things that, One, obviously these things have A commercial product. So there's like people buying this and sticking with it versus kind of hopping in between things versus, you know, for example, crew AI, not really growing as much.[00:53:38] Alessio: The stars are growing. If you look on GitHub, like the stars are growing, but kind of like the usage is kind of like flat. In the last six months, have they done some[00:53:4

Meet Kristin MacDermott, the author of three books which break resilience down into bite-sized skills anyone can apply to their life immediately. In 2018, she founded ‘The MacDermott Method' to bring her unique model of resilience-training to children, especially teens. Time stamps: 0:00- 1:10: Intro 1:10- 1:32: Mission on this planet 1:32- 2:12: Previous life 2:12- 2:59: Inflection point 2:59- 5:00: Core offer 5:00- 6:53: Ideal client 6:53- 7:18: Tools 7:18- 8:06: Launching 8:06- 10:05: Success 10:05- 10:56: Creator Database 10:56- 12:10: Students 12:10- 12:26: Growth 12:26- 15:55: Costs 15:55- 17:04: Customer acquisition 17:04- 19:41: Marketing funnel 19:41- 22:01: The secret to growing and converting audience 22:01- 22:28: Tripling the business 22:28- 23:07: The biggest thing holding you back 23:07- 24:07: Biggest potential marketing channel 24:07- 31:20: Quick fire questions 31:20- 32:42: Outro Follow Kristin: Instagram TikTok Follow Million Dollar Creators: Instagram: milliondollarcreators.club TikTok: @million_dollar_creators YouTube: @Million_Dollar_Creators Creator Database: https://www.milliondollarcreators.club/

In this episode, we discuss the launch of PENGU, Solana's ability to continue accelerating, and the problems faced by PerpDEXs. We also unpack what is happening on Filecoin before closing the episode with thoughts on the notorious hot ball of money. Thanks for tuning in! As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice. -- Resources Filecoin's Inflection: https://x.com/blockworksres/status/1868725847894724964 -- SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 45 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork -- Chaos Labs recently launched its new flagship oracle product, Edge with Jupiter. Edge has already secured $30 billion in trading volume over the last 2 months, establishing Edge by Chaos as an immediate leader in the low-latency oracle category. The protocol design blends market context and price data, reflecting Chaos' central thesis that risk data and price data are inextricably linked. Follow and reach out to @chaos_labs on X to learn more! -- GLIF is Filecoin's foundational DeFi primitive, enabling Filecoin holders to earn rewards on their FIL tokens by lending it to a diverse pool of Filecoin miners! Similar to LSTs like Lido or Jito, GLIF solves a major capital inefficiency for Filecoin. GLIF has been a long-term trusted partner of the Filecoin ecosystem since early 2019, receiving more than $4 million in grant funding from Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation to build critical apps and tools for the Filecoin network, as well as investments from top crypto VCs like Multicoin Capital and Fenbushi. Got FIL? Deposit it with Filecoin's first and most popular DeFi protocol by visiting https://glif.io/ today! -- Follow Ryan: https://x.com/_ryanrconnor Follow Danny: https://x.com/defi_kay_ Follow Boccaccio: https://x.com/salveboccaccio Follow Blockworks Research: https://x.com/blockworksres Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3foDS38 Subscribe on Apple: https://apple.co/3SNhUEt Subscribe on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3NlP1hA Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Join the 0xResearch Telegram group: https://t.me/+z0H6y2bS-dllODVh -- Timestamps: (0:00) Introduction (2:15) PENGU Launch (9:05) Can Solana Continue Accelerating? (17:13) Perps Are Not Working Onchain (36:10) Skale Ad (36:52) Chaos Ad (37:25) Glif Ad (37:58) What's Happening on Filecoin? (50:00) The Hot Ball of Money -- Check out Blockworks Research today! Research, data, governance, tokenomics, and models – now, all in one place Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ Free Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 0xResearch is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Boccaccio, Dan, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

For more than a year now, the story about inflation and why inflation was almost certainly going to stay high (in the 'high 3s, low 4s' on median inflation, as the Inflation Guy has long held) was a story about the guaranteed rebound in money velocity. That has been an easy story and forecasting medium-term inflation has been consequently pretty easy. That is changing. Velocity has made a round trip to where it was prior to COVID. And that means that the underlying drivers of inflation going forward are changing. In this episode, the Inflation Guy explains what that means for the future of inflation.   NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin Stable?” https://inflationguy.blog/2024/10/31/what-makes-a-stable-coin-stable/ Blog for this month's CPI: “Inflation Guy's CPI Summary (October 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/11/13/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-october-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/   Now just $29.99/quarter! To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

This week on Upstream, Byrne Hobart discusses the potential impacts of the Department of Government Efficiency, insights from leaked OpenAI emails, Trump's and Elon Musk's policies and their economic implications, and the future of prediction markets in organizational decision-making. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/279fae71-9087-46b7-a2e6-b6e17d8fdf6b —

Would the world be a better place if we all paused to enjoy a square of sustainably-sourced craft chocolate every day? In honor of the Thanksgiving season, Reid and Aria treat Possible listeners to a discussion about chocolate, flavor, and sustainability. Joining them is Spencer Hyman, whose company, Cocoa Runners, sells craft chocolates from sustainability-minded artisan makers around the world. He gets into the difference between flavor and taste, along with the future of personalized nutrition and the art of savoring everything from chocolate to friendship.  For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/  Topics: 2:33 - Hellos and intros 4:20 - Spencer's journey into the world of chocolate 6:25 - The language of flavor 8:01 - How AI could impact taste 10:23 - Inflection's Pi describes flavors in creative ways 13:03 - Leading a sustainable business that combines capital and social good 15:17 - Making chocolate more social 16:08 - Why chocolate is water-intensive  18:32 - Waves of culinary trends and innovations  22:17 - Midroll ad break 22:24 - Can technology help us better savor food? 25:14 - The next potential innovations in the food industry 28:07 - Why the order you eat things in matters 30:50 - Building meaningful connection via chocolate  34:14 - A conversation with Spencer's daughter about chocolate and relationship-building 38:18 - Rapid-fire questions

Few Americans have been as consistently critical of Donald Trump's morality than the New York Times and Atlantic columnist Peter Wehner. How to prevent the worst happening, Wehner thus wrote, in his final Atlantic column before the election. So now that the worst has actually happened, how exactly is Wehner - who worked in several Republican administrations - feeling about the future of the American Republic? More optimist than one might. American self-renewal is a wonder of the world, Wehner explained to me, which is why, he believes, we should still be remain cheerful about American democracy.Peter Wehner is a contributing writer at The Atlantic and a senior fellow at the Trinity Forum. His books include The Death of Politics: How to Heal Our Frayed Republic After Trump, City of Man: Religion and Politics in a New Era, which he co-wrote with Michael J. Gerson, and Wealth and Justice: The Morality of Democratic Capitalism. He was formerly a speechwriter for George W. Bush and a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. Wehner is a contributing opinion writer for The New York Times, and his work also appears in publications including The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and National Affairs.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Transcript“What we're called to be in our lives, personally and maybe vocationally, is to be faithful, not necessarily successful. Whether a person is successful in life depends often on circumstances that they can't control. That's just the nature of human existence. But you do have some measure of control of whether you're faithful or not. And that's really what honor is.” -Pete WehnerAK: Hello everybody. Election was two weeks ago, but we're trying to figure out the implications of the Trump/Vance win in the presidential election. We've done a number of shows, one with my old friend Jonathan Rauch. Rauch believes that November 5th represents what he calls a "moral catastrophe." And I'm curious as to what my guest today will say, whether he'll try to trump his old friend John Rauch. Wehner I've always seen as the conscience of American conservatism. He wrote a piece in The Atlantic—he writes a lot both for The Atlantic and The New York Times. Before the election, he wrote a piece for The Atlantic about preventing the worst from happening. He's joining us now two weeks after the election. Pete, did the worst happen? Is it a moral catastrophe?PETE WEHNER: Well, I see the worst happened in terms of what the binary choice was for this this election. Obviously, it's not the worst that could conceivably happen to a country, but given the circumstances, it's the worst that happened. Is it a moral catastrophe? You know, it's a moral blow. And I think it's a moral indictment, actually, of of much of the country as well. Whether it's a moral catastrophe remains to be seen. I mean, events will write that story. But I'm certainly concerned about where we are politically in terms of classical liberalism, in terms of the moral life and moral compass of America.AK: Immediately after the election. Peter Baker, New York Times writer, one of your one of your companions, colleagues on The Times, wrote an interesting piece about Trump's America, suggesting that this is the America who we are. Kamala Harris argued that we were different. But Baker believes that this is the America. It's Trump's America. As you know, Pete, he quoted you in the piece. You said, "This election was a CAT scan on the American people. And as difficult as it is to say, as hard as it is to name, what it revealed, at least in part, is a frightening affinity for a man of borderless corruption." Tell me more about this CAT scan. What does it tell us about the America of late 2024?PETE WEHNER: Well, I think it tells us things that are disturbing. It doesn't mean—and I wouldn't say and I didn't mean to imply—that people who themselves voted for Donald Trump are morally corrupt. But what I do mean to argue is that everybody who voted for Donald Trump voted for a man of borderless corruption, a man of moral depravity. And that's disturbing.AK: It's more than disturbing, Pete, the way you put it. "Moral depravity." In what way is he depraved?PETE WEHNER: Well, let me count the ways. I mean, the man was found liable to sexual assault. He's adulterer, porn star. He's cheated on his taxes and charitable giving. He tried to coerce an ally to find dirt on his opponent. He invited a hostile foreign power in the election. He instigated an insurrection against the Capitol. He tried to urge a violent mob to hang his vice president. He's a man who says racist things. He's a misogynist. He surrounds himself with people who are themselves deeply problematic, including picks that he wants for his cabinet. I would say that corruption has touched every area of his life, personal, professional, and in the presidency. So I don't think that that's a difficult argument to make. I think there's empirical evidence for it. But if there is a counter argument, I'm open to hearing it.AK: Well, I'm certainly not going to make that counter argument. You seem on the one hand, Pete, a little...tentative about, shall we say, morally smearing all Trump voters with his depravity. On the other hand, you know that everybody knows everything about Trump. There are no secrets here.PETE WEHNER: Right.AK: Can one then vote for Trump and not be in any way smeared by this moral depravity?PETE WEHNER: Yeah, it's a good question and I've thought a lot about it, Andrew. The way I think about it is that for Trump supporters, many of them, in any event, look, I know them. I mean, we've friends throughout our life, and I wouldn't deny that you can be a Trump voter and be a wonderful parent or neighbor and a person of high moral quality in a lot of areas in your life. On the other hand, I would say that this was an important election, and that Trump's depravity was undisguised. In fact, he kind of hung a neon light on it. And for an individual to cast a vote for that kind of man, who has done the things that he's done, and he's promised to do the things that he's done, I do think reflects on the person's character. And I don't think it's says everything about a person's character. I don't think this is the most important thing about a person's character. But I do think it says something. And I think that the people who voted for him should at least own up to who he is and the kind of man that that they cast their vote for. So if that's the tentativeness that you hear from me, that's an effort to explain why it's both tentative but something that I have fairly strong convictions on.AK: Pete, you and I talked about this a lot. You've been on the show many times. So it's a wonderful opportunity to talk to you. Is the church/state division in your head as sharp as it should be? For you, is politics essentially an extension of morality? I've always suspected there's an element of that, and I don't necessarily mean that as a criticism. It's just a reality of how you think.PETE WEHNER: Yeah, I don't take it as a criticism. I do think that politics is an extension of of morality. I don't think it's the most important extension of morality. And I do believe that the people who are indifferent to politics, you know, their morality expresses itself in different ways. But yeah, I think from my youngest days, at least in junior high and high school and on, I've always had a sense that politics, at its core, is about justice and the pursuit of justice. And it's about a lot of other things. And it's an imperfect means to achieve justice; there's other ways to achieve justice. But I do think that that's what politics is about. And politics is also the expression of a set of moral beliefs. I mean, that, after all, is what law is in many cases. So I do think that morality and politics are tied. The last point I'll make on it, Andrew, is that if politics goes bad, if it goes really bad, it can have catastrophic human consequences. Gulags and killing fields and genocide and a lot of things less bad than that but that are bad enough. And so I just feel like that matters. And that's certainly a manifestation of morality.AK: What about the argument, Pete, that for all the immorality, the depravity, to use your word, of Trump, most of the voters are voting for change. There's a photo in one of your pieces, I think it may be in the Baker piece, of a Trump supporter on a motorbike with a "Trump 2024" flag, and the suggestion that the rules have changed. It seems to be clear in the two weeks after the election that Trump is determined to change the rules. I mean all his appointments seem to be challenging the current assumptions, institutions, elites, and conventions. Isn't that a good thing? America seems bogged down—I mean, I know you're a conservative, but there were many areas from health care to foreign policy to the environment, and they need to be fundamentally changed. It was a very odd election in the sense that Kamala Harris was supposed to be the progressive, and yet she turned out to be the conservative. She seemed to be suggesting that not much in America needs changing. She didn't seem to want to distance herself too much from Joe Biden, whereas Trump is the candidate of change. Is that a credible argument?PETE WEHNER: No, I don't think it's credible. At least let me qualify that. He's certainly a candidate of change. I think whether it's positive or negative change is really what matters. I think it's one thing to say that institutions need to be reformed, which I agree with and have agreed with for many years and have been part of various efforts, throughout the years, to advocate for the reform of institutions. It's another thing to try and destroy institutions, to burn them down. And I think that Trump and the MAGA world is in the latter category. I think that that is the ethos which defines them. So, you know, in terms of people who voted for Trump out of the country, 50%, whatever, the number is going to end up being, vote for him. I understand the impulse, some of the frustrations that have been expressed. So that is its own topic of conversation, which we can get into. But to me, the idea that Donald Trump is the solution to the problems is not plausible. And I point out too, Andrew, that he did have one term prior to it. And in many respects, the things that people are unhappy about got worse, not better, under his watch. So if you compare what his promises have been to what his record was in the first term, I just don't think it squares. And in addition to that, the kind of things that he's promoting now, I think will make things worse. Just to take one specific area, the manufacturing crisis. There's no question that, for a whole variety of reasons, that there's people who have been in the manufacturing industry have suffered. But actually, it was worse during Trump's watch than it was under Biden's watch. So I don't think that Donald Trump is is the answer to the to the question, even a legitimate question, that's being presented or posed.AK: Pete, you've always described yourself as a conservative. You believe that now you're homeless as a conservative. I wonder what you made, though, of the Harris campaign. Her association with Liz Cheney, of course, represents the conservative wing of the Republican Party that you've been involved with all your life. You work with Cheney and Bush and Reagan. Do you blame Harris for losing the election? Did she make a series of mistakes? And what does it tell us about the Democratic Party? I mean, it's always easy—you've written extensively about the crisis of the Republican Party and its Trump-ification. But is there a similar crisis within the Democratic Party?PETE WEHNER: Well, I think there's a crisis, or at least a challenge, in the Democratic Party, which I'll turn to in a second. I mean, they've they've lost two of the last three elections to Donald Trump. So that is a cause for for self-reflection, for for sure. In terms of the Harris campaign, I'm not as critical as a lot of people are of her. I thought she ran a much better campaign than I thought that she would. It wasn't a perfect campaign by any means, but given the tasks she faced, given her own history, I thought that she did extremely well. And I don't blame her for the loss. I think there were certain intrinsic disadvantages that she had. I mean, she was essentially an incumbent in an election where the impulse for the public was change. Joe Biden's approval rating was 41%. She's going to end up with about 48% of the popular vote. That actually, to me is pretty impressive. The idea that she could have beaten, or have been ten points better, in the popular vote from the Biden approval rating would have been a spectacular achievement. I don't think it was achievable. She made mistakes. She didn't distance herself sufficiently from the Biden administration, but I don't think she ever really could have, because she was vice president. I think that the biggest stage, the biggest moment with the largest audience of all, she absolutely obliterated Donald Trump in the debate. I thought her convention speech was good. I'd sort of graded it at a B plus. I thought the convention itself made a lot of sense. I thought her rallies were very good. She was better on the stump than I thought. She had a huge amount of of energy. I thought she was not so good on interviews. And I think she stumbled at a few points, particularly when she was asked on The View where she differed from Joe Biden. She couldn't come up with anything. I think that she should have been prepared for that.AK: But to put it mildly, I mean, that was the most obvious question that everyone wanted to know. How could she have been so unprepared?PETE WEHNER: Well, I don't know if she was unprepared, I assume—AK: Or unwilling or unable to answer this fundamental question.PETE WEHNER: Yeah, I'm guessing that what was going through her mind, and probably the mind of the people that she spoke with, was that there was still a lot of loyalty to Joe Biden. And so she had to be careful in how far she distanced herself from him and whether that would create some unhappiness among Biden supporters. Secondly, she was vice president. And so there's a plausibility issue here, which is: how much can you separate yourself from a president if you're vice president? That said, look, I think she should have had 2 or 3 things that she could have named. And there was a relatively easy explanation, various explanations she could have offered: look, I believe in learning. When facts change, people change. I think that, you know, in my in my earlier life, I was wrong on certain issues and name what they were, and say that hopefully I've learned from that, I hope to continue to learn. I mean, there are all sorts of ways you could answer that. But look, Andrew, I will say this, too, which is having worked on several campaigns and having observed a lot of them over the decades, it's a lot harder to run as a candidate than people can imagine. And every candidate, no matter how good they are, whether you're Barack Obama or Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan, have made mistakes. And the prism through which people view it is completely based on whether you win or not. If Trump had lost, you can imagine all of the things that we would say about, you know, really, was it wise to to close the argument talking about the penis size of Arnold Palmer or feigning masturbation with a microphone? I mean, there are there are dozens and dozens of things we would have said.AK: Yeah, I take your point, but of course he didn't. Let's talk about conservatism. You always made the argument—you were on MSNBC recently talking about why Trump is an enemy of conservatism. Is now, shall we say, the Harris wing, which is the center/right of the Democratic Party, which seems to have got into bed, so to speak, with Liz Cheney, are they really the conservatives now in America? I mean, they seem to think that America works pretty well. They always talk about America being American, and we're better than that. Is your conservative Republican Party, has it been swallowed by the Democratic Party?PETE WEHNER: I don't think it's been swallowed by the Democratic Party. And of course, it depends on what aspects of conservatism one is talking about. I would say that given the current constellation of reality in the two main parties in America, that conservatives have a better home in the Democratic Party than the Republican Party right now. But I don't think it's a natural home, and it's certainly not the kind of home that conservatives have been used to in the Republican Party pre-Donald Trump. I'd say the main point in terms of the question you asked is to underscore how fundamentally unconservative the Republican Party, Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, are. You know, there's a line in the movie The Dark Knight, the Batman movie, in which Alfred is talking to Bruce Wayne, and Bruce Wayne is trying to explain the criminal mindset to Alfred. And Alfred is saying, but you don't understand. And here he's talking about the Joker. He says, some people can't be bought, bribed, coerced. Some people just want to watch the world burn. And I think that Donald Trump and the MAGA movement have within them that kind of sensibility. I don't think it's defining to all of them, and I don't think it's completely defining to them. But I think that there is a nihilistic impulse, this effort not to reform, as I said earlier, institutions, but just to burn them to the ground, to take a wrecking ball. But, you know, Matt Gaetz as attorney general, or Pete Hegseth as defense secretary or Tulsi Gabbard as the head of the intelligence agencies, and just, out of anger, grievance, try and destroy them, try and destroy the so-called deep state. That's so fundamentally unconservative, in my estimation, that a conservative couldn't, in good conscience, find a home there. And right now, the alternative is the Democratic Party. And I don't think, on that central question of disposition and temperament, the Democrats are nearly as unconservative, nearly as radical, nearly as revolutionary, as the current-day Republican Party.AK: It all reminds me a little bit of a cowboy movie, The Magnificent Seven (or perhaps the Un-Magnificent Seven.) Talk about a natural party, Pete, but does that really work in American politics, where most African-Americans now vote for a Democratic Party that was in favor of segregation?PETE WEHNER: I'm sorry, say that again.AK: You talk about a natural party. You said, well, conservatives said that the Democrats aren't the natural party of conservatism. But can we use this term convincingly in American politics? After all, most African-Americans vote for the Democratic Party, which was the party of segregation.PETE WEHNER: Yeah, the Democratic Party was the party of segregation. And they changed in the end, you know, it took them longer than it should have. No, I don't think that there's anything, you know, endemic or intrinsic to parties that makes them a natural home to any political movement or political philosophy. Because parties change, circumstances change, coalitions change, the base of a party changes. We've seen that really with the Republican Party. It's just a fundamentally different party than it was in the 80s and 90s and 2000s. And the Democratic Party has changed, and changed in some ways, to the worse. And I think they paid a price for that. I do think that you can take a step back and say, look, over the last 50 years, when you chart the trajectory of the Democratic and Republican Party, there are certain trends that you can see. And so for some period of time, I think that the Democratic and Republican parties were natural homes to certain movements.AK: Is there anything we should celebrate about the election? There were a lot of warnings beforehand that there was going to be a massive gender split, and it didn't turn out to be true. Trump promised that he would get a lot of Hispanic and African-American voters. He got a lot of Hispanic and quite a few African-Americans, especially men. Could one argue that November 5th, 2024 was the first post-identity politics election? Is that something to be encouraged about?PETE WEHNER: Well, in this case, I'd say no, because I think the results of that post-identity politics is going to have really damaging consequences. I see your point, and I do think that to the extent that political parties can't count on certain groups constituencies, that's probably, as a general matter, good. It means you have to go out and earn their vote rather than reflexively rely on them. But as somebody who's been a Trump critic, and who has predicted what four more years under Donald Trump is going to be like, I just think that that overwhelms whatever good that could have come out of it. I suppose I would add, there's one good thing that's come out of this, which is there hasn't been violence. But honestly, I think that's because Donald Trump lost, and the Democratic Party believes in the peaceful transfer of power, and they're not going to do in 2024 what Donald Trump and his supporters did in 2020. I'm glad that's not happening, but I think it is worth reflecting on the fact that violence won't happen because the Democratic Party is the more responsible and civilized party in that respect.AK: How are you doing personally? Trump hasn't been shy to boast about his revengefulness. You've being one of his most articulate critics in The Times, in The Atlantic, certainly from the right, or from traditional conservatism, a very strong moral critic. How are you dealing personally with this situation?PETE WEHNER: You know, I think I'm probably dealing with it better than a lot of people would imagine given my own views on Trump. I think just disposition, temperamentally, I'm not a person who has found politics to be overwhelming or disorienting. I don't want to pretend that it's not a difficult moment, both in terms of what I think it means for the country and for what, as I said earlier, what I think it says about the country. And for somebody who grew up loving America and probably, to some extent, mythologizing America, seeing this happen is difficult. But most of my life and the spirit of my life and is based on my relationships mostly with family and with friends. And those, to me, are the things that really determine what my mood is on any given day or any week. I will say that my wife Cindy and I, in the last two weeks, have really been struck by the number of people that we have heard from who are deeply grieved and fearful of what's happening. We saw somebody a week ago Sunday, and Cindy asked this person, how are you doing? And she burst into tears. She had been abused by her husband. And she said that Donald Trump was a person just like her husband, and she couldn't fathom that America elected him. And we have a friend who's a family therapist, and she said she had spent the week before with sexual abuse victims, and the fact that Trump had been elected and that people in her family were celebrating that...other people who felt like much of what they had given their lives to was shattering. So we've really felt more, I suppose, in a listening mode, in a comforting mode, trying to help people to sort through it. It's different, Andrew, I will say, in my experience and the experience of the people around me, I think, in the country now than it was in 2016. I think 2016 could be argued that that was an aberration, a parenthesis, and I think it's clearly not the case. This is the Trump era, and I think that's hard for a lot of people to come to terms with. Other people are celebrating it. They think that this is wonderful. Donald Trump is, to them, the personification of what they want in a leader and a human being. And now we've got it.AK: Yeah, we will see. You wrote an interesting piece in The Atlantic after the election suggesting that 2024 is different from 2016. It's less shocking, more a confirmation. You wrote an interesting piece in response to what happened, "Don't Give Up on the Truth," in The Atlantic. We are where we are. But there is, if not reason to celebrate, reason to, at least, resist. Are you part of a moral resistance, in some ways, Pete, do you think, to Trump, or at least Trumpism, in America?PETE WEHNER: Yeah, I think that's fair. I think some people who have been critical of Trump are going to dial back their criticism, or they just might find other things to think about or talk about or write about. And I understand that. That's not where I am. I mean, I have to think about what my posture is going to be in the Trump era. That's not clear to me yet. And I think it'll become clear to me as circumstances unfold. But, you know, what I wrote, I believed, and I continue to believe in, and the fact that Donald Trump won the election doesn't allay my concerns, it deepens them. I hope I have enough intellectual independence that if he is different than I think, and if he does things that I agree with, that I'm willing publicly to say that. I tried to do that in the first term. And I hope I can do it in a second term and I hope I'm given reasons to do it, and I hope that my foreboding of what this means for America is wrong. But I can't shake what I believe to be true. And I read the opposite views of mine and critiques of mine and try to understand what I'm getting wrong about Donald Trump. And I may be blinded on this, but I don't think I have been wrong about him. I think all of the things that I've been writing about him since 2015—actually, 2011, and go back to the birther moment—I think they've been validated. And I feel like given my role in life and the outlets that I have, that I can't help but give voice to those concerns. And whether that makes a difference or not, time will tell. It certainly didn't have an impact this time around, that's for sure.“Parties change, circumstances change, coalitions change, the base of a party changes. We've seen that really with the Republican Party. It's just a fundamentally different party than it was in the 80s and 90s and 2000s. And the Democratic Party has changed, and changed in some ways, to the worse. And I think they paid a price for that.” -PWAK: Well, you certainly have a natural home on this show, Pete. And in your excellent Atlantic piece, you talk about the importance of truth telling. You are a truth teller, that goes without saying. What do you think is the most effective way, though, to tell the truth these days? I don't think you're a big social media guy, you're not going on X or Instagram or TikTok. How does one most effectively tell the truth in Trump's America?PETE WEHNER: That's such a good question, Andrew, and a deep one. I'm not sure what the answer is. I think in terms of what each individual has to do, they just have to find within the circumstances of their life the places that they can tell the truth. Some of that just may be with family and friends, maybe in neighborhoods and community groups. It may be in churches. It may be, if you're a writer, in The Atlantic, in The New York Times. You know, I think that what's important in telling the truth is that one does it truthfully. That is, that it corresponds and aligns to reality, that it's rooted in empirical evidence, and that one does not dehumanize in the process. And if you're dealing with a person—for example, in my estimation of Donald Trump and what I do believe is this moral depravity, I just think that is true about him—how do you say that? How do you say that without crossing lines? How do you engage with people who are Trump supporters, as I have, many of them, and to try and point out and argue for my position, and to do so in a way that isn't disrespectful or dehumanizing? Those aren't easy questions. I'm sure I haven't gotten them right. But I think you just try the best you can in the world that you live in to try and give voice to the truth. And probably it helps to look back to others who have faced far more difficult circumstances than we have. I mentioned in my most recent Atlantic essay Solzhenitsyn and Havel who were great dissidents and spoke, in the case of Solzhenitsyn, when the Soviet Union was a country to which he was hostage to, and for Havel, there was a communist movement in Czechoslovakia. And they and so many others, Orwell in a different way, and Jesus in a different way, said that the important thing to do was to speak the truth. It doesn't mean you succeed, necessarily, when you do it, but it's important to do. Times change. Circumstances change. Inflection points can happen. And sometimes speaking the truth can create those moments. And other times when those moments open up, people who spoke the truth have a capacity to shape events in a way that they didn't before that. I should say one interesting example that apposite, maybe, you and your own history knowledge: you take someone like Winston Churchill. And Churchill was the same man in the 30s as he was in the 40s, and in the 30s he was viewed as a social pariah, an alarmist, a kind of ridiculous figure, he had very, very little influence. But events changed, the war came, and all of a sudden Churchill became arguably the greatest person of the 20th century. So there's probably a lesson in that for people who want to be truth tellers.AK: Yeah, I've always thought of you, Pete, as the moral conscience of America, although you've been involved in politics, but I can't imagine you ever running for political office. You talked about Solzhenitsyn and Havel in particular as an activist, as someone who stood up very bravely and indeed humorously to the Russian colonialists in Czechoslovakia or Soviet colonialism. Does the anti-Trump movement need a Havel, a Solzhenitsyn, a Winston Churchill? Seems to be lacking, Harris clearly wasn't. I've always wondered whether Michelle Obama could have been that person. And I know that everyone says, well, she couldn't have run. She doesn't like politics, but maybe she had almost a moral responsibility as an American. But where are we going to get an America? Where are we going to get our Churchill, our Havel, our Solzhenitsyn? All of course, white men. Maybe we need some women, too.PETE WEHNER: Yeah, you know, those are rare people. And it's not a dime a dozen. Yeah, I felt like Liz Cheney was that person in this moment more than Harris, more than others. I think I felt that way about Liz, because there was a cost, there was a very concrete and practical cost, to what she had done. And that, to me, is a sign and a symbol of courage, which is: if you do the right thing when there's a cost to doing the right thing. And I thought her articulation of why she broke with Trump and voted for Harris was extremely powerful. So I'd say of the people in the landscape in American politics right now, Liz Cheney would be supreme for me, but of course, she was tossed out of the Republican Party. She was beaten in a primary. And the Democratic Party's not a natural home for her either. So these are her wilderness years, Churchill had his, I'm not saying that Liz is Churchill, Churchill was Churchill and that's about it. But she showed enormous courage and articulation. I think the fact that for a person of my view, she made such a powerful and persuasive case, and it just didn't win over enough voters. And I think that that's an indictment not of Liz, but I think it's an indictment of an awful lot of voters in America. But that would make sense, because I see the world in a certain way, and the majority of Americans saw it differently. And this is a democracy. And so now we've got Trump and the people who voted for him, and the rest of us get to live with them.AK: Are there hierarchies of morality, Pete? There's a great deal of revisionism now on on Churchill reminding us all that he was an overt racist, a colonialist, a warmonger in some ways, although, of course, we don't use that word in terms of his opposition to Hitler. Trump made that point about Cheney, I mean, in his own vulgar way, but Cheney, of course, was also a warmonger—or, certainly her father was, millions of people—well, certainly hundreds of thousands of people—in the Middle East lost their lives because of catastrophic American wars in the region. Could one argue that Cheney's support for these catastrophic wars are equally immoral, if not more immoral, than Trump's moral transgressions?PETE WEHNER: Yeah, if you believe that narrative, I mean, I think that narrative is flawed. I don't mean that the wars weren't mistaken, but I think the way you framed it is is a caricature. But if you believe that, if you're right and I'm wrong, sure, then, of course. And there is a moral hierarchy. I mean, you know, morality is judged by the actions that you take in the moment that you live and the consequences that they create. And if a person or an individual does an action that creates massive harm and the destruction of human lives, human civilizations, if someone is advocating maliciousness and malevolence on a wide scale, that obviously has to be judged differently than if you lose your temper as a boss or somebody who works for you. So morality is a complicated subject. You also have to take into account, to some degree, the circumstances in which people lived. If you lived in the 14th century, if you lived in the 18th century, if you lived in the 20th century, if you lived in the 21st century, there were different moral standards and moral ethics and moral norms. That doesn't mean, in the case of the American founders, the slave holders, that was a grave sin, and I think probably traditionally on the on the American right, because there's been almost a defecation of the founding fathers, that they've been excused too much for tolerating slavery. Lincoln himself, who I think is the greatest American in history, his history was somewhat spotty. I think he was a magnificent figure. And he grew, but that happens. But just to come back to what you said earlier, if you were to say to me, Liz Cheney versus Donald Trump on any reasonable moral spectrum, I would say that that Liz Cheney has him beat by a country mile, by virtually any metric that you want to judge her and him on.AK: In that excellent Atlantic piece, Pete, you talked about this being a moment where we, and I'm quoting you, we need to guard our souls. But what about for those of us who might not believe in the existence of souls?PETE WEHNER: Yeah. Then I would use a different word.AK: What word would you use?PETE WEHNER: Your inner life, your interior life, your sense of humanity, how you view others. I think most people, whether soul is the word that they use, I think most people aren't strict materialists, or they don't believe in scientism. They believe that there are parts of human life, human existence, human reality that aren't materialistic, that has to do with beauty and esthetics and love and = humanity and caring for the least of these. And, you know, many people that I know that are not believers personify those high virtues, honestly, in ways that are more impressive than people I know who claim to be followers of Jesus. So I use the word soul because I think it speaks to something that is true for human life and human beings. But I understand if you're not a believer that you wouldn't use that term. But I imagine that there's some other term that would get at essentially the same thing, which is your core humanity. What makes you an estimable human being. Compassion, honor, dignity, being a peacemaker, and so forth.AK: You're also more cheerful in the sense that you want to remind everyone that, of course, we want to cultivate hope, humanistic hope. But all this needs to be understood within the historical context. You argue that, in the Atlantic piece, presumably Trump's only going to be around for four years. Things change, there are always party realignments, so, cheer us up, Pete. Why might this just be a blip in the history of humanity rather than the end of it in some way?PETE WEHNER: Yeah. It's not going to be the end of humanity. Even if my most dire warnings are realized. Look, I would say that there can be a kind of catastrophism that happens on all sides and that we need to be careful about it. Life is complicated. Human history is complicated. There are moments of glory and moments of catastrophe and disaster. You know, in the American experience, we had the 1850s that lead up to the Civil War. We had the Civil War. We had the profound difficulties in reconstruction. We had segregation, child labor laws, women can't vote. Just enormous challenges in this country. The first election, really contested election in America between Adams and Jefferson in 1800, was a vicious affair. So, you know, we've we've faced a lot. And that's just America. And, you know, you look at world history, I quote it at the end of my essay, "Don't Give Up on the Truth" in The Atlantic, a speech, one of my favorite speeches, that Bobby Kennedy gave in 1966 at University of Cape Town in South Africa, where he talked about the ripples of hope, and how the ripples of hope can overcome the worst and highest walls of oppression. Now, when Kennedy gave that speech, it was 66. It was at the apex of of apartheid, and eventually apartheid was overthrown, and—AK: Yeah, it's worth repeating the RFK quote, "Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or strikes out against injustice, he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope, and crossing each other from a million different centers of energy and daring, those ripples build a current which can sweep down the mightiest walls of oppression and resistance." Of course, it's particularly resonant given that his son is involved in the Trump administration and is probably not someone you're particularly keen on.PETE WEHNER: No, he's, no pun intended, but I'm not particularly keen on his son. But the father I admired, and I think those words are timeless words. And we shouldn't forget them. Look, the other thing I'd say, Andrew, is that what we're called to be in our lives, personally and maybe vocationally, is to be faithful, not necessarily successful. Whether a person is successful in life depends often on circumstances that they can't control. That's just the nature of human existence. But you do have some measure of control of whether you're faithful or not. And that's really what honor is. I mean, honor is living a life—an imperfect life. We all struggle, we're all fallen, we're all flawed—But trying to advance that. And the other thing I would emphasize again is that human life, human history, the progression of countries, are not straight lines. There's forward and backward, there's zigs, there's zags, inflection points develop, and things change in ways that a person may never anticipate. You mentioned John Rauch earlier, and he and Andrew Sullivan were leading the campaign for same sex marriage. When they started that campaign, especially, Andrew, in 1989, I think he wrote a cover story in The New Republic on the conservative case for gay marriage. Now, if you would have asked either of them in the late 80s, 90s and so forth, whether gay marriage would be prevalent or even be found to be a constitutional right, they would have said that's inconceivable. It couldn't happen. And it happened. Whether you agree or not with same sex marriage, it shows capacity of events to change. And you and I could name a lot of things in which that's happened. So you don't know when those moments come, when those inflection points happen. And I also believe the American capacity for self-renewal is a kind of wonder of the world and that people will—AK: Say that again: American self-renewal is a wonder of the world.PETE WEHNER: Yeah. I think the American capacity for self-renewal is extraordinary. I think it's shown itself throughout history. Again, it's a mixed history, but—AK: But where does that come from, that American self-renewal? Is it a spiritual thing? Is it an economic thing? “I think that what's important in telling the truth is that one does it truthfully. That is, that it corresponds and aligns to reality, that it's rooted in empirical evidence, and that one does not dehumanize in the process.” -PWPETE WEHNER: You know, I'd imagine part of it is part of the American DNA. The things that shape anybody in any country, the factors, the history...there's certainly something, I think it's reasonable to say, in America, about freedom and liberty, that is part of the American character. You know, people could go back and read Tocqueville, which is still relevant to what Americans are like. I think our political history has helped shape us. Civil society has helped shape us. So, you know, each country has a certain kind of a DNA. And I think by and large, America's has been good. So there's history to give you hope, and not just American history. So, I just think you need to keep putting one foot in front of the other. I think you have to call out things that happen that are wrong, immoral or illegal as they as they happen, and hope that over time you bend events enough in your direction. Martin Luther King Junior had that quote, which is pretty well known, about the arc of the moral universe bending toward justice, but that does not—AK: It's not natural, is it? As you suggest, it requires human agency, doesn't bend on its own. Finally, Pete, and you've been very generous, as always, with your time. A lot of comparisons, there always have been, with America and the Roman Republic, this shift into, sort of, decadence. There's also a fashion these days for stoicism. Some of the ideologies or the intellectual movements of the late Roman decadent, not the republic, but imperial Rome. What would you say to people—won't say necessarily Stoics formally, but people who are espousing a kind of stoicism—who will say, "Well, I'm just not going to watch the news for the next four years, Trump doesn't really affect me. I'm just going to ignore him. I'm going to go to sleep for four years, and when I wake up, things will have changed." Do we all need to stay awake? Is the stoical response to essentially ignore the political world, is that healthy in Trump's America?PETE WEHNER: I think some people need to stay awake. You know, it really would depend on the facts and circumstances, Andrew. I mean, if you're an individual who feels overwhelmed by what Trump represents and really can't process it in a very healthy way, and you find your spirit being pulled down and obsessing on him and just, you know, casting shadows over your life, then I'd say, yeah, just to the degree that you can pull the plug. Don't follow, you know, the unfolding events, and attend to your life, your inner life, and the people that you love and care for. On the other hand, if that happens more broadly, and just people shut up and don't speak out, I think that that would be a great tragedy, because I think it's important to speak the truth in its own terms. I think it's important that there are individuals who give voice to what people believe and the moral concerns that they have when they don't have the capacity to do it on a large scale. And as I said, you know, I mentioned earlier, Solzhenitsyn and Havel, and I don't pretend that America is in a situation like the two of them faced. So the challenges and sacrifices that are called on Americans today who are in the so-called resistance isn't comparable to what Solzhenitsyn and Havel and many others have faced. But you need to speak out, and you can't go to sleep. Democracy is, as you said earlier, about human agency. We're not corks in the ocean. We're not fatalistic. We shouldn't be fatalistic. We can create movements and trends and moments and trajectories and moments of and periods of honor and and virtuous chapters in the American story. But they don't happen accidentally. And you can be discouraged, but you've got to stay at it. A friend of mine once said that you could be a theoretical pessimist, but you should be an operational optimist.AK: That's a nice way of putting it. Peter Wehner, I'm not sure about American self-renewal being a wonder of the world, certainly your self-renewal is a wonder of the world. It's wonderful to have you around, and we will be calling on your wisdom, your ethical spirit of resistance against injustice, over the next four years. Keep well, keep safe, Pete, and we will talk again in the not-too-distant future. Thank you so much.PETE WEHNER: Thanks. It's great to be with you, Andrew. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

How should we respond to the anxiety, fear, and catastrophizing of Election Day? Is there an alternative to fight, flight, or freeze? Can people of Christian conviction stand firm, grounded in faith, leaning into the storm? In this special Election Day episode of Conversing, Mark Labberton welcomes Peter Wehner (columnist, the New York Times, The Atlantic) and David Goatley (president, Fuller Seminary) to make sense of the moral, emotional, and spiritual factors operating in the 2024 US general election. Together they discuss the emotional response to political media; faithful alternatives to the overabundance of fear, anxiety, and catastrophizing; how the threat of affective polarization divides families and friendships; biblical attitudes toward troubling or frightening political and cultural events; how to respond to vitriol, anger, cynicism, hate, and manipulative language; and how the church can help restore trust and be a faithful witness, standing firm through the political storm. About Peter Wehner Peter Wehner, an American essayist, is a contributing opinion writer for the New York Times, a contributing writer for The Atlantic, and senior fellow at the Trinity Forum. He writes on politics and political ideas, on faith and culture, on foreign policy, sports, and friendships. Wehner served in three presidential administrations, including as deputy director of presidential speechwriting for President George W. Bush. Later, he served as the director of the Office of Strategic Initiatives. Wehner, a graduate of the University of Washington, is editor or author of six books, including The Death of Politics: How to Heal Our Frayed Republic After Trump, which the New York Times called “a model of conscientious political engagements.” Married and the father of three, he lives in McLean, Virginia. About David Goatley David Emmanuel Goatley is president of Fuller Seminary. Prior to his appointment in January 2023, he served as the associate dean for academic and vocational formation, Ruth W. and A. Morris Williams Jr. Research Professor of Theology and Christian Ministry, and director of the Office of Black Church Studies at Duke Divinity School. Ordained in the National Baptist Convention, USA, he served as pastor of the First Baptist Church of Campbellsville, Kentucky, for nine years (1986–1995). In addition to his articles, essays, and book chapters, Goatley is the author of Were You There? Godforsakenness in Slave Religion and A Divine Assignment: The Missiology of Wendell Clay Somerville, as well as the editor of Black Religion, Black Theology: Collected Essays of J. Deotis Roberts. His current research focuses on flourishing in ministry and thriving congregations, most recently working on projects funded by the Lilly Endowment and the Duke Endowment. Show Notes Anxiety, Uncertainty, and Worst-Case Scenarios The regular appeal to “the most important election of our lifetimes” Assuming the worst about others “We are at a fork in the road for a certain kind of vision of who we want to be.” “As an African American, many of us always live in the crosswinds.” Living with fragility, vulnerability, and uncertainty Hymn: “On Christ the Solid Rock I Stand” Anger, Antipathy, and Fear Passions and beliefs—and an electoral system built to amplify those “They're more amplified than in the past.” Families and friendships that divide over politics. Feeling like we “share a continent but not a country” Affective polarization—”There's a sense of the other side being an enemy.” Catastrophizing Recalibrate, reset, and rethink Hoping that calmer heads prevail Church splintering and aligning with partisan politics “God will use all things—not that God intends all things.” The political balance wheel “Fear is not a Christian state of mind.” “Hope is based on something real.” “The long game for believers is to hearken back to the early church and remember that Jesus is Lord, and the emperor is not.” Political toxicity that infects the household of faith “We have to do all that we can to live with peacefully with each other.” Vitriol, hubris “It's important to name things. … If you don't name them—if you try to hide them—then you can't begin the process of healing.” “Faith is subordinate to other factors that they're not aware of.” The Era of Fear: What informs our fears? What can we do about our fears? Fear of the Lord that sets us free Firmness as an alternative to fighting or fleeing “Valuing the vibrant diversity of God” “Expand your reading.” Breaking out of conformity and homogeneity “Meeting the moment”: Inflection points in a human life or a society's life—a moment for leaders to rise up, speak, and shape Example: Winston Churchill and Great Britain pre–World War II (from pariah to prime minister) Example: Jonathan Haidt's The Anxious Generation and the agenda to make schools phone-free These aren't the conditions for human flourishing “We've got to be faithful. We may not be successful.” Cultivating a political garden to prepare the soil for shared core values of decency, respect, fairness “… what we have loved, / Others will love, and we will teach them how” (William Wordsworth, “The Prelude”) Loving the right things Voting “Complicating my view of the world.” “Thy kingdom come, thy will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.” Before voting: “A prayer to submit myself to the will of God.” “Tell me how you came to believe what you believe … over time it can create a feeling of trust” “What don't I see? What about my own blindspots?” Stunned by the profundity and sobering word that “God will not be mocked” Expressing convictions through voting Production Credits Conversing is produced and distributed in partnership with Comment magazine and Fuller Seminary.

How many lives will be saved with the help of AI over the next decade? Reid and Aria sat down with Bill Gates to discuss his main areas of focus: climate change, energy, global health, and education—and how AI will help transform each of them. Taking a bird's-eye view of society's challenges, it's easy to give in to pessimism. But as one of the most influential people in the world, Bill Gates has a unique perspective on how far humanity has come and what our potential—and timelines—for meaningful change really look like. He gets granular on everything from cows (5% of global emissions) to disease reduction and eradication (Guinea worm disease). At each turn, he has data at his fingertips to ground his beliefs. So, what current set of innovations is Bill most excited about? And what is realistically on the horizon for AI, climate change, energy, global health, and education? For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/  Topics: 03:18 - Hellos and intros 03:24 - Projects Bill is most excited about 05:46 - Bill's recent Netflix series 08:14 - Technology that will change what's possible 10:41 - Solutions for malnutrition 12:09 - Cow-based solutions for climate change and nutrition 17:06 - What Bill is working toward for climate change 19:19 - Viable alternative energy sources 23:80 - What will make solar work? 26:47 - Nuclear fission and fusion 29:30 - How AI will help mitigate climate change 32:38 - What to focus on in global health 37:24 - AI and drug discovery 39:52 - What else will AI unlock in public health? 42:28 - Personalized medicine: is it worth it? 44:02 - Conditions on the ground in the poorest countries 47:29 - AI in education 51:24 - Khanmigo and early GPT-4 54:59 - Non-tech levers for change in education 56:34 - What would Bill ask someone from 2100? 58:25 - AI in 3-5 years, and what comes next for work 01:03:05 - Rapid-fire Questions Select mentions:  The Better Angels of Our Nature by Steven Pinker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature  What's Next? The Future with Bill Gates https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xxhYr4gbQE  Bill Gates Visits First Avenue School: Commends Innovative Use of Technology https://www.nps.k12.nj.us/schools/first-avenue-school/bill-gates-visits-first-avenue-school-commends-innovative-use-of-technology/  Possible is an award-winning podcast that sketches out the brightest version of the future—and what it will take to get there. Most of all, it asks: what if, in the future, everything breaks humanity's way? Tune in for grounded and speculative takes on how technology—and, in particular, AI—is inspiring change and transforming the future. Hosted by Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger, each episode features an interview with an ambitious builder or deep thinker on a topic, from art to geopolitics and from healthcare to education. These conversations also showcase another kind of guest: AI. Whether it's Inflection's Pi, OpenAI's ChatGPT or other AI tools, each episode will use AI to enhance and advance our discussion about what humanity could possibly get right if we leverage technology—and our collective effort—effectively.

Our 187th episode with a summary and discussion of last week's big AI news, now with Jeremie co-hosting once again! With hosts Andrey Kurenkov (https://twitter.com/andrey_kurenkov) and Jeremie Harris (https://twitter.com/jeremiecharris) Read out our text newsletter and comment on the podcast at https://lastweekin.ai/. If you would like to become a sponsor for the newsletter, podcast, or both, please fill out this form. Email us your questions and feedback at contact@lastweekinai.com and/or hello@gladstone.ai Timestamps + Links: (00:00:00) Intro / Banter (00:03:07) Response to listener comments / corrections (00:05:13) Sponsor Read) Tools & Apps(00:06:22) Anthropic's latest AI update can use a computer on its own (00:18:09) AI video startup Genmo launches Mochi 1, an open source rival to Runway, Kling, and others (00:20:37) Canva has a shiny new text-to-image generator (00:23:35) Canvas Beta brings Remix, Extend, and Magic Fill to Ideogram users (00:26:16) StabilityAI releases Stable Diffusion 3.5  (00:28:27) Bringing Agentic Workflows into Inflection for Enterprise Applications & Business(00:32:35) Crusoe's $3.4B joint venture to build AI data center campus with up to 100,000 GPUs (00:39:08) Anthropic reportedly in early talks to raise new funding on up to $40B valuation (00:45:47) Longtime policy researcher Miles Brundage leaves OpenAI (00:49:53) NVIDIA's Blackwell GB200 AI Servers Ready For Mass Deployment In December (00:52:41) Foxconn building Nvidia superchip facility in Mexico, executives say (00:55:27) xAI, Elon Musk's AI startup, launches an API Projects & Open Source(00:58:32) INTELLECT-1: The First Decentralized 10-Billion-Parameter AI Model Training (01:06:34) Meta FAIR Releases Eight New AI Research Artifacts—Models, Datasets, and Tools to Inspire the AI Community (01:10:02) Google DeepMind is making its AI text watermark open source Research & Advancements(01:13:21) OpenAI researchers develop new model that speeds up media generation by 50X (01:17:54) How much AI compute is out there, and who owns it? (01:25:28) Rewarding Progress: Scaling Automated Process Verifiers for LLM Reasoning (01:33:30) Inference Scaling for Long-Context Retrieval Augmented Generation Policy & Safety(01:41:50) Announcing our updated Responsible Scaling Policy (01:48:52) Anthropic is testing AI's capacity for sabotage (01:56:30) OpenAI asked US to approve energy-guzzling 5GW data centers, report says (02:00:05) US Probes TSMC's Dealings with Huawei (02:03:03) TikTok owner ByteDance taps TSMC to make its own AI GPUs to stop relying on Nvidia — the company has reportedly spent over $2 billion on Nvidia AI GPUs (02:06:37) Outro

In this conversation, Jaeden Schafer and Conor discuss the evolving role of AI in society, particularly how AI models are increasingly being marketed as friends or personal assistants. They explore the implications of this shift, including the rise of AI advertising and the competition between companies like Anthropic and Inflection. The discussion also touches on the mental health crisis and how AI could potentially fill gaps in support for loneliness and connection. Get on the AI Box Waitlist: ⁠⁠https://AIBox.ai/⁠⁠ Conor's AI Course: https://www.ai-mindset.ai/courses Jaeden's Podcast Course: https://podcaststudio.com/courses/ Conor's AI Newsletter: https://www.ai-mindset.ai/ Jaeden's AI Hustle Community: https://www.skool.com/aihustle/about 00:00 The Emergence of AI as a Friend 05:03 AI Advertising: A New Frontier 10:04 The Battle for Personal Assistant Dominance

How can people in all corners of the world participate in the AI revolution and unlock benefits in their own lives? James Manyika, Senior Vice President of Research, Technology & Society at Google, joins the show to discuss global access to AI and the impact on capitalism, the economy, science, and the workforce. He speaks to Google's latest AI developments, including tools to warn people about natural disasters like floods and wildfires, along with the virtual research assistant NotebookLM. Read the transcript of this episode here: www.possible.fm/podcasts/manyika For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/  Topics: 01:18 - Hellos and intros 02:36 - James's career and path into AI 03:59 - UN involvement and diversity of perspectives in global AI  08:04 - Learnings from UN High-Level Advisory Body on AI 10:01 - NotebookLM demo 12:06 - Specific uses of the virtual research assistant NotebookLM  15:03 - Global positive impacts of AI 18:38 - AI and capitalism, the economy  24:10 - AI and climate change  29:17 - Humanity and AI development  32:14 - How to mitigate risks  35:02 - The rising importance of humanist disciplines  36:50 - NotebookLM rollout  39:31 - Truth and bias in the age of AI 40:58 - Rapid-fire questions Select mentions:  NotebookLM - https://notebooklm.google.com/  Governing AI for Humanity, from the UN's High-level Advisory Body on AI - https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/governing_ai_for_humanity_final_report_en.pdf Project Green Light - https://sites.research.google/greenlight/  “Applying AI to Rebuild Middle Class Jobs” by David Autor - https://www.nber.org/papers/w32140  “Accelerating Climate Action with AI” from BCG – https://web-assets.bcg.com/72/cf/b609ac3d4ac6829bae6fa88b8329/bcg-accelerating-climate-action-with-ai-nov-2023-rev.pdf  Possible is an award-winning podcast that sketches out the brightest version of the future—and what it will take to get there. Most of all, it asks: what if, in the future, everything breaks humanity's way? Tune in for grounded and speculative takes on how technology—and, in particular, AI—is inspiring change and transforming the future. Hosted by Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger, each episode features an interview with an ambitious builder or deep thinker on a topic, from art to geopolitics and from healthcare to education. These conversations also showcase another kind of guest: AI. Whether it's Inflection's Pi, OpenAI's ChatGPT or other AI tools, each episode will use AI to enhance and advance our discussion about what humanity could possibly get right if we leverage technology—and our collective effort—effectively.

Reid unpacks the decision to appoint Sean White as the leader of Inflection and outlines what makes him uniquely poised to take on this exciting challenge. Plus, Aria asks Reid about the future landscape of LLMs.  For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/

Tomorrow's game will tell us a lot about the Huskers and Rutgers.

Will AI “agents” soon be personalized teachers, doctors, companions and even check items off your to-do list on their own? “Agentic” is the latest buzzword in AI and Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman says moving beyond the text chatbot to a "smart friend” is the goal. The former co-founder of DeepMind, Suleyman helped grow Google's AI division before launching another start-up, InflectionAI. Earlier this year, Microsoft paid $650 million for the licensing rights to Inflection, and brought Suleyman and most of his staff on board. Kara spoke to him at this year's Lesbians Who Tech conference about his strategy for integrating Copilot into Microsoft's existing product suite; why he views OpenAI more like a sibling than a competitor; and why renewable energies (and a lot of cash) will be vital in meeting AI's massive energy needs. Questions? Comments? Email us at on@voxmedia.com or find Kara on Threads/Instagram @karaswisher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bret Taylor is CEO and Co-Founder of Sierra, a conversational AI platform for businesses. Previously, he served as Co-CEO of Salesforce. Prior to Salesforce, Bret founded Quip and was CTO of Facebook. He started his career at Google, where he co-created Google Maps. Bret serves on the board of OpenAI. In Today's Discussion with Bret Taylor: 1. The Biggest Misconceptions About AI Today: Does Bret believe we are in an AI bubble or not? Why does Bret believe it is BS that companies will all use AI to build their own software? What does no one realise about the cost of compute today in a world of AI? 2. Foundation Models: The Fastest Depreciating Asset in History? As a board member of OpenAI, does Bret agree that foundation models are the fastest depreciating asset in history? Will every application be subsumed by foundation models? What will be standalone? How does Bret think about the price dumping we are seeing in the foundation model landscape? Does Bret believe we will continue to see small foundation model companies (Character, Adept, Inflection) be acquired by larger incumbents? 3. The Biggest Opportunity in AI Today: The Death of the Phone + Website: What does Bret believe are the biggest opportunities in the application layer of AI today? Why does Bret put forward the case that we will continue to see the role of the phone reduce in consumer lives? How does AI make that happen? What does Bret mean when he says we are moving from a world of software rules to guardrails? What does AI mean for the future of websites? How does Bret expect consumers to interact with their favourite brands in 10 years? 4. Bret Taylor: Ask Me Anything: Zuck, Leadership, Fundraising: Bret has worked with Zuck, Tobi @ Shopify, Marc Benioff and more, what are his biggest lessons from each of them on great leadership? How did Bret come to choose Peter @ Benchmark to lead his first round? What advice does Bret have to other VCs on how to be a great VC? Bret is on the board of OpenAI, what have been his biggest lessons from OpenAI on what it takes to be a great board member?  

How will an empathetic AI interact with humans? What if we used AI not just for its IQ, but its EQ? How do we build the trust to enable it to take agency on our behalf? This week, Reid and Aria sit down with an expert and friend, Sean White to start answering those questions. Sean White is currently the CEO of Inflection AI and is working on expanding the relationship of what AI can do for humans. Sean takes a humanist approach to new technology, and is interested in AI that can go beyond intelligence to learn empathy and take action. Sean's background is as wide-ranging as the conversation, where we discuss the influence of AI in everything from neuroscience to understanding animal languages. Plus, listen to a live test with Pi to demonstrate Pi's ability to handle a tough situation at work, with empathy.  Read the transcript of this episode here. For more info on the podcast and transcripts of all the episodes, visit https://www.possible.fm/podcast/  Topics: 01:22 - Hellos and intros 3:20 - Microsoft and Inflection  6:27 - The capabilities and influence of Inflection's Pi  11:02 - Pi in the workplace  12:10 - Pi in action  15:38 - AI isn't a human; it is a tool  16:11 - Pi's IQ vs EQ  17:46 - Pi's AQ, or our ability to take action via AI  18:51 - How our lives might change in the near future with Pi  21:36 - How our skill sets will elevate  22:28 - Neuroscience and AI  25:22 - Owning your intelligence  30:14 - The wonders of Earth Species Project  34:05 - Rapid-fire questions Select mentions:  Inflection: https://inflection.ai/  Spruce art collective Dr. Eddie Chang, Chang Lab, UCSF  Familiarity by the Punch Brothers Dr. Hirokazu Kato, Nara Institute of Science and Technology Possible is an award-winning podcast that sketches out the brightest version of the future—and what it will take to get there. Most of all, it asks: what if, in the future, everything breaks humanity's way? Tune in for grounded and speculative takes on how technology—and, in particular, AI—is inspiring change and transforming the future. Hosted by Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger, each episode features an interview with an ambitious builder or deep thinker on a topic, from art to geopolitics and from healthcare to education. These conversations also showcase another kind of guest: AI. Whether it's Inflection's Pi, OpenAI's ChatGPT or other AI tools, each episode will use AI to enhance and advance our discussion about what humanity could possibly get right if we leverage technology—and our collective effort—effectively.

To data analyst, or to data science? To individually contribute, or to manage the individual contributions of others? To mid-career pivot into analytics, or to… oh, hell yes! That last one isn't really a choice, is it? At least, not for listeners who are drawn to this podcast. And this episode is a show that can be directly attributed to listeners. As we gathered feedback in our recent listener survey, we asked for topic suggestions, and a neat little set of those suggestions were all centered around career development. And thus, a show was born! All five co-hosts—Julie, Michael, Moe, Tim, and Val—hopped on the mic to collaborate on some answers in this episode. For complete show notes, including links to items mentioned in this episode and a transcript of the show, visit the show page.

The market seems to be ignoring today's retail sales data ahead of the Fed decision on interest rates tomorrow. We'll look ahead to the most uncertain Fed meeting in nearly a decade. Plus, the CEO of Rocket Companies says a quarter-point cut could lead to mortgage rates climbing in the near term. He'll join us to explain why. And one analyst sees several names at or near inflection points, even if things slow down into the holiday season.

Guest Host Daniel Yellin speaks with John Dryden, a lead data scientist based in our Los Angeles office. John spent a decade working in industry data science roles before joining Bain in 2022. He recently won Bain's Global Hackathon by creating CreationSpace (formerly known as Seer), an AI-driven consumer insights platform, which is now part of our Founder's Studio and will soon spin out as a standalone startup. Listen to John's journey from industry to consulting and how Bain helped him develop a tech startup.

Subscribe to Prof G Markets: Apple Podcasts Spotify  Scott and Ed open the show by discussing the UK's investigation into Microsoft's Inflection acquihire, as well as Nippon Steel's potential acquisition of US Steel and Andreesen Horowitz's decision to close its Miami office. Then Scott shares his thoughts on why millionaires are flocking to the Middle East and why he's not concerned about the rising popularity of golden passports. He also explains how he thinks countries should handle taxation in order to attract citizens. Finally, Scott and Ed discuss why the podcast industry is booming right now, and what it could mean for Prof G Media. Order "The Algebra of Wealth," out now Subscribe to No Mercy / No Malice Follow the podcast across socials @profgpod: Instagram Threads X Reddit Follow Scott on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram and X Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In Eastern Australia's underexplored Macquarie Arc, Inflection Resources (CSE: AUCU │ OTCQB: AUCUF │ FSE: 5VJ) is looking to unearth some of Australia's biggest copper and gold mines. Inflection Resources is a sub-brand of NewQuest Capital, an investment group that incubates and finances early-stage mineral exploration projects worldwide.In this interview, Inflection Resources President, CEO, and Director Alistair Waddell discusses the gold and copper exploration opportunity in the Macquarie Arc, Inflection's partnership with global gold mining company AngloGold Ashanti, and current and future activities.Discover Inflection Resources' copper and gold exploration in Eastern Australia: https://inflectionresources.com/Learn more about NewQuest Capital: https://www.nqcapitalgroup.com/Watch the full YouTube interview here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IgRgFwHqh8And follow us to stay updated: https://www.youtube.com/@GlobalOneMedia?sub_confirmation=1

In this week's episode, Paul is in Germany in preparation for IFA 2024. Some of the big PC players have made timely hardware announcements, including Intel launching their Core Ultra 200V series processors, Qualcomm revealing an 8-core Snapdragon X Plus chip, and Dell listing a new XPS 13 laptop for preorder. Plus, does the Wall Street Journal have something for Intel? A suspiciously-timed gaming article might suggest so. Tune in for more news on all the related companies, from HP and NVIDIA to Proton and Google! IFA begins (just kidding) Microsoft comes clean on Copilot+ PC features on non-Snapdragon X PCs: Next-gen AMD and Intel systems will get Copilot+ PC features in November, but will not be called Copilot+ PCs Intel formally launches Lunar Lake as Core Ultra processor Series 2 Dell announces Lunar Lake-based XPS 13, pre-order now Qualcomm launches 8-core Snapdragon X Plus processor Google Drive is going native on Arm - And ExpressVPN and NordVPN are live on Arm now! Richard got an email from Arrow Electronics about his Snapdragon Dev Kit (and what happens next will shock you!) Surface Pro 11, Surface Pro 7 for Business - plus 5G coming to Surface Pro 10 for Business Is the recent WSJ piece an Intel hit job? Windows Windows 11 version 24H2 - Some clarity? Come on! Everyone announces that you'll be able to remove Recall from Windows 11. You won't New Canary and Beta builds (last week) - lots of things in both, for a change Vivaldi is fully optimized for Windows 11 on Arm HP earnings: Slim growth, thanks to PCs AI Copilot Wave 2 event is coming soon. The great rebrandening? UK CMA OK's Microsoft "acqui-hire" of Inflection. Oh, and it's a merger ChatGPT now has 200 million active users Firefox 130 offers third-party AI chatbots More Apple Intelligence in latest betas Proton Scribe is available to consumers now too Antitrust Microsoft complains to UK CMA about Apple App Store fees, licensing Plus, Apple keeps getting passive aggressive with those that complain about its business practices Yelp finally sues Google Intel is considering breaking itself up to survive - will likely take baby steps first NVIDIA seems to be OK, but next year will be interesting. Oh wait, the stock just cratered Xbox Call of Duty Black Ops 6 Early access is here More Game Pass titles appear, none from Activision Blizzard PlayStation 5 Pro design leaks Sony has its Redfall moment, launches and then kills Concord Tips and Picks Tip of the week: Looking for a cheap gaming laptop? App pick of the week: Windows App RunAs Radio this week: Evolving Generative AI with Alison Cossette Brown liquor pick of the week: Cley Whisky Palo Cortado Hosts: Leo Laporte, Paul Thurrott, and Richard Campbell Download or subscribe to this show at https://twit.tv/shows/windows-weekly Get episodes ad-free with Club TWiT at https://twit.tv/clubtwit Check out Paul's blog at thurrott.com The Windows Weekly theme music is courtesy of Carl Franklin. Sponsors: flashpoint.io 1password.com/windowsweekly Melissa.com/twit lookout.com

In this week's episode, Paul is in Germany in preparation for IFA 2024. Some of the big PC players have made timely hardware announcements, including Intel launching their Core Ultra 200V series processors, Qualcomm revealing an 8-core Snapdragon X Plus chip, and Dell listing a new XPS 13 laptop for preorder. Plus, does the Wall Street Journal have something for Intel? A suspiciously-timed gaming article might suggest so. Tune in for more news on all the related companies, from HP and NVIDIA to Proton and Google! IFA begins (just kidding) Microsoft comes clean on Copilot+ PC features on non-Snapdragon X PCs: Next-gen AMD and Intel systems will get Copilot+ PC features in November, but will not be called Copilot+ PCs Intel formally launches Lunar Lake as Core Ultra processor Series 2 Dell announces Lunar Lake-based XPS 13, pre-order now Qualcomm launches 8-core Snapdragon X Plus processor Google Drive is going native on Arm - And ExpressVPN and NordVPN are live on Arm now! Richard got an email from Arrow Electronics about his Snapdragon Dev Kit (and what happens next will shock you!) Surface Pro 11, Surface Pro 7 for Business - plus 5G coming to Surface Pro 10 for Business Is the recent WSJ piece an Intel hit job? Windows Windows 11 version 24H2 - Some clarity? Come on! Everyone announces that you'll be able to remove Recall from Windows 11. You won't New Canary and Beta builds (last week) - lots of things in both, for a change Vivaldi is fully optimized for Windows 11 on Arm HP earnings: Slim growth, thanks to PCs AI Copilot Wave 2 event is coming soon. The great rebrandening? UK CMA OK's Microsoft "acqui-hire" of Inflection. Oh, and it's a merger ChatGPT now has 200 million active users Firefox 130 offers third-party AI chatbots More Apple Intelligence in latest betas Proton Scribe is available to consumers now too Antitrust Microsoft complains to UK CMA about Apple App Store fees, licensing Plus, Apple keeps getting passive aggressive with those that complain about its business practices Yelp finally sues Google Intel is considering breaking itself up to survive - will likely take baby steps first NVIDIA seems to be OK, but next year will be interesting. Oh wait, the stock just cratered Xbox Call of Duty Black Ops 6 Early access is here More Game Pass titles appear, none from Activision Blizzard PlayStation 5 Pro design leaks Sony has its Redfall moment, launches and then kills Concord Tips and Picks Tip of the week: Looking for a cheap gaming laptop? App pick of the week: Windows App RunAs Radio this week: Evolving Generative AI with Alison Cossette Brown liquor pick of the week: Cley Whisky Palo Cortado Hosts: Leo Laporte, Paul Thurrott, and Richard Campbell Download or subscribe to this show at https://twit.tv/shows/windows-weekly Get episodes ad-free with Club TWiT at https://twit.tv/clubtwit Check out Paul's blog at thurrott.com The Windows Weekly theme music is courtesy of Carl Franklin. Sponsors: flashpoint.io 1password.com/windowsweekly Melissa.com/twit lookout.com