Podcast appearances and mentions of Howard Marks

My guest today is Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Research & Muddy Waters Capital and one of the last short sellers still standing. In today's episode, Carson Block explains why he thinks AI could displace 15% of knowledge workers and unwind the market's biggest stocks. He breaks down his short of SoFi's aggressive loan accounting, why record-tight credit spreads worry him, and how he trades that risk with put spreads.  To close, Carson explains why he still calls China uninvestable and recounts his hardest battles. (0:00) Starts (1:02) Carson Block on the evolution of short selling (3:03) The impact of AI on jobs, economy, and markets (9:43) Evolving Muddy Waters' business model beyond short-selling (13:32) Investing in momentum and junior gold miners (17:52) Navigating markets amid AI disruption and labor market impact (25:21) Thoughts on historically low corporate yield spreads (30:25) Carson's short call on SoFi (38:10) Carson's most memorable investment ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Investing Guide: https://clickhubspot.com/epkr Episode 841: Sam Parr ( https://x.com/theSamParr ) and Shaan Puri ( https://x.com/ShaanVP ) talk to legendary investor Howard Marks about AI and making decisions in the face of fear and uncertainty.  — Show Notes: (0:00) AI Hurtles Ahead (8:26) second level thinking (10:21) investing through the end of the world (14:47) raising $11B at a time of crisis (17:54) investing with fear (20:22) the key to a successful partnership (25:01) being a good father (27:37) only 1 success: to live your life your way (34:17) Having lunch with Warren Buffett (37:18) What people don't know about Buffett (39:37) cigar butt investing (41:35) recommended reading — Links: • AI Hurtles Ahead - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/ai-hurtles-ahead  • A Short History of Financial Euphoria - https://www.amazon.com/History-Financial-Euphoria-Penguin-Business/dp/0140238565  • Fooled by Randomness - https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219  — Check Out Sam's Stuff: • Hampton (joinhampton.com): My community for founders. Average member does $25m/year. Many of the guests are members. Get after it...apply: http://joinhampton.com/mfm — Check Out Shaan's Stuff: • Shaan's weekly email - https://www.shaanpuri.com  • Visit https://www.somewhere.com/mfm to hire worldwide talent like Shaan and get $500 off for being an MFM listener. Hire developers, assistants, marketing pros, sales teams and more for 80% less than US equivalents. • Mercury - Shaan uses Mercury for banking across all of his companies. you can too: http://mercury.com/  Mercury is a fintech company, not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column, N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust, Members FDIC • I run all my newsletters on Beehiiv and you should too + we're giving away $10k to our favorite newsletter, check it out: beehiiv.com/mfm-challenge My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by HubSpot Media // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano /

My guest today is Joseph Moore, a historian and former professor who spent over a decade in the archives studying 300 years of American financial advice, which he explains in his new book, How to Get Rich in American History: 300 Years of Financial Advice That Worked (& Didn't). In today's episode, Joseph explains what 300 years of American financial advice reveals about getting rich. He shares why real estate barely appreciated for a century, why bonds beat stocks for decades, and how modern investing advice was born chasing inflation and taxes. To close, Joseph reveals the five timeless principles that built wealth in every era. (0:00) Starts (1:34) Joseph Moore shares a historical perspective on money (13:04) Real estate investment strategies (20:59) Stocks vs. bonds debate (25:45) Should you try to beat the market? (33:32) Key financial lessons from history (39:54) Joseph's most memorable investments (42:10) Surprising historical financial statistics ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Buffett said if you can't manage your emotions, you can't manage your money. This week we prove him right. Steve, Tom and Jacob break down Howard Marks' Mastering the Market Cycle: the three stages of every boom and bust, why the CAPE at 42 stacks the odds against US stocks, and why you never need to pick the bottom.

Today's guest is Rebecca Anderson, a Senior Fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey's business and economics research arm. She leads research on economic growth and the financial system, in the United States and globally. In today's episode, Rebecca shares her McKinsey report on what has powered America's economy for 250 years: natural endowments, a culture of entrepreneurship, and the institutions that harnessed them. She examines labor force dynamism in the age of AI, the $2 trillion cost of reindustrialization, and a global balance sheet stretched to record highs. (0:00) Starts (1:11) Rebecca explains American's natural advantages (9:11) US leadership in science, technology, and education (16:29) AI, workforce transitions, and manufacturing ramp-up (25:56) Infrastructure challenges and US-China comparisons (33:38) US policy recommendations (43:44) The global balance sheet (52:14) Cultural attitudes and geopolitics ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Billionaire Investor Howard Marks uses this Psychology tactic to stay ahead when investingSecond Level Thinking.>Want to generate consistent income through investing?Learn our AI for Options system for passive income.20% annualised return with more stability than the S&P500.Find out more and apply here: https://www.hedgealpha.ai/individual#stocks #stockmarket #stockstouy #investingThis video is for educational purposes only and not financial advice, always do your own research and make independent investment decisions. This video is not a recommendation to buy/sell any security.

That is the trap. And it is compounded right now by something called recency bias — the tendency to assume that what has been happening will keep happening. Markets have gone up for a long time. New IPOs are capturing attention. There is enthusiasm in the air. And enthusiasm breeds complacency. People assume the funds that have been performing well will keep performing well, without checking whether the companies inside them still deserve their valuations.   [ { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "PodcastEpisode", "name": "When to Hold, When to Sell: Staying Invested Through Market Volatility", "url": "https://www.dupreefinancial.com/when-to-hold-when-to-sell-market-volatility/", "description": "Tom Dupree and Lead Advisor Mike Johnson discuss the discipline behind staying invested during volatile markets — covering dividend income strategy, valuation-based sell decisions, and why the firm currently holds a significant cash position.", "partOfSeries": { "@type": "PodcastSeries", "name": "The Tom Dupree Show", "url": "https://www.dupreefinancial.com" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Tom Dupree" }, "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Dupree Financial Group", "url": "https://www.dupreefinancial.com" } }, { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "FAQPage", "mainEntity": [ { "@type": "Question", "name": "Should I sell my investments when the stock market drops?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Selling during a market drop is one of the costliest decisions a retirement investor can make. Research from Hartford Funds shows that 76% of the stock market's best single days occurred during a bear market or in the first two months of a new bull market. Investors who exit to avoid the declines frequently miss the recoveries that follow almost immediately — often within days." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "How does dividend income protect a retirement portfolio during volatility?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Dividend income provides a return that doesn't depend on stock prices rising. When markets fall, dividends continue to arrive and can cover living expenses without forcing a sale at depressed prices. For retirement investors managing sequence of returns risk — the danger that early losses permanently damage a portfolio — income from dividends reduces or eliminates the need to liquidate holdings at the worst possible moment." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "What is the right way to decide when to sell a stock?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "The sell decision should be grounded in company-specific valuation and fundamentals, not broad market fear. A position may warrant trimming when its price has risen well beyond what the underlying business justifies, when the dividend yield for new buyers has become unattractive, or when the company's core business model has changed materially. Selling because the market is falling — absent a fundamental reason specific to that company — is rarely supported by evidence." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "Can you successfully time the stock market to avoid losses?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Consistent broad market timing has an extremely poor track record. Fidelity's analysis shows that a hypothetical $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 from 1988 through 2024 grew to over $500,000 for a buy-and-hold investor — but missing just 5 of the best days reduced those gains by 38%, and missing the 50 best days left the investor with under $40,000. The best and worst days cluster together, so exiting to avoid the bad ones typically means missing the good ones too." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "What is sequence of returns risk and why does it matter in retirement?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Sequence of returns risk is the danger that poor market returns early in retirement — combined with ongoing withdrawals — permanently damage a portfolio before it can recover. Retirement researcher Wade Pfau found that roughly 77% of a portfolio's final outcome is explained by just the first ten years of returns. Fidelity's research illustrates this with two hypothetical retirees who each start with $1 million and withdraw $50,000 a year, experiencing the same returns over 30 years in reverse order — one finishes with over $3 million, the other runs out of money by year 27. A dividend-income approach helps manage this risk by providing cash flow that reduces forced selling during down markets." } } ] } ] Should You Sell When the Market Drops? The Case for Staying Invested During Volatility By Tom Dupree, Founder — Dupree Financial Group  |  Last Updated: June 2026  |  dupreefinancial.com I have been managing money for 47 years. In that time, I have watched investors survive crashes, recessions, a pandemic, and a handful of moments that felt — from inside them — like the whole thing was coming apart. The ones who came through it best almost never did it by being clever about timing. They did it by staying invested when everything in them said to get out. That sounds simple. It is not. Because when the market is dropping and the financial news is relentless and your account balance is going the wrong direction, selling feels like the rational move. It feels like you are finally doing something instead of just watching it happen to you. But here is what I have seen happen to the investors who acted on that feeling. They sold. They waited for things to settle down. And by the time they felt safe enough to get back in, the market had already recovered most of the ground they were trying to protect themselves from losing. The exit was imperfect. The re-entry was worse. And the cost of both — measured in missed growth and missed dividends — followed them for years. This post is about staying invested during market volatility — what that actually means in practice, when it is right to hold, and how dividend income changes the calculation entirely for anyone approaching or already in retirement. Key Takeaways The best market days happen during the worst ones. Research shows 76% of the market’s best single days occur during bear markets or in the first two months of a new bull run. Exiting to avoid the declines means missing the recoveries. Dividends solve a problem index funds cannot. Income from your holdings lets you cover living expenses in retirement without selling assets at depressed prices — the key to managing sequence of returns risk. Valuation is not the same as market fear. The right reason to sell a position is a change in the company’s underlying value or business fundamentals — not a falling stock price. Cash is a valuation call, not a retreat. Holding more cash than usual signals that current prices don’t offer enough compelling opportunities — it preserves capital and creates optionality. Knowing what you own is not optional. Without understanding your underlying holdings, market price movements become your only signal — and that is exactly when emotional decision-making takes over. Why Panic Selling Costs More Than the Drop Itself There is a number I come back to every time markets get rough, and it never stops being striking. Seventy-six percent of the stock market’s best single days over the past 30 years occurred either during a bear market or in the first two months of a new bull market. Think about what that means in practical terms. The days that do the most to rebuild a damaged portfolio almost never arrive when things feel safe. They arrive in the middle of the chaos — often within days of the worst declines. Fidelity’s data makes the cost of missing those days concrete. A hypothetical $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 from 1988 through 2024 grew to over $500,000 for a buy-and-hold investor. Miss just the 5 best days over that entire period and that gain shrinks by 38%. Miss the 50 best days and the $500,000 portfolio is worth under $40,000. Same time period, same starting amount — the only difference is whether you were in the market on a handful of days you could not have predicted in advance. Most investors who exit during a decline are not planning to miss 30 or 40 good days. They are planning to get back in when things settle down. But the settling down and the best days are not separate events. They are the same event. The investor who moved to cash in March 2020 — when the news was genuinely terrifying — locked in losses right before one of the fastest recoveries in market history. The recovery did not wait for the all-clear signal. “Income from the portfolio tilts the table in your favor — it puts time back on your side while you wait for price appreciation.” — Tom Dupree, Dupree Financial Group I have watched this play out with investors who were half right. They called a decline correctly. The market went down, just as they predicted. But it did not go down as far as they expected, so they never pulled the trigger to buy back in — and then the market moved up, and their window closed. Being right about direction and wrong about magnitude still cost them. A partial win that turns into a full loss. The ego piece matters too. Once someone has made a public call to get out, getting back in means admitting the exit was a mistake. I have seen investors stay on the sidelines for years rather than admit they were wrong. The market moved on. They did not. Why Retirement Investors Face a Different Problem Than Everyone Else For investors who are still accumulating — still adding to their portfolios every month — a market decline is a nuisance. It may even be an opportunity. They are buyers, and lower prices mean they get more for their money. For investors who are drawing from their portfolios to pay for their lives, a market decline at the wrong time is something far more serious. There is a specific name for it: sequence of returns risk. Retirement researcher Wade Pfau has quantified the magnitude of this effect: approximately 77% of a portfolio’s final retirement outcome can be explained by the returns of just the first ten years. The first decade is not just an early chapter in a long story. For most retirees, it is most of the story. Fidelity puts a dollar figure on it. Two hypothetical retirees each start with $1 million and withdraw $50,000 a year, experiencing the exact same set of annual returns over 30 years — just in reverse order. The retiree whose strong years come first finishes with over $3 million. The one whose losses arrive first sees the portfolio gone by year 27. Same returns. Same withdrawals. Different sequence. Completely different life. This is the problem that average returns and long-term market graphs do not show you. They assume you are a lump sum sitting patiently in the market for decades, untouched. Most retirees are not that. They are drawing money out regularly. And when you are drawing money out, the order of returns matters as much as the average of them. I have said this on the show, and I will say it again here: Wall Street will show you long-term averages because averages look good. But averages do not pay your electric bill in a down market. What pays your electric bill is income — dividends arriving in your account regardless of what prices are doing. How Dividend Income Changes the Calculus on Staying Invested When a stock pays a meaningful dividend, the decision to sell it is not just a price decision. It is also a decision to give up a stream of income — potentially forever. That changes the analysis. Take a position like AGNC, a mortgage REIT that carries an above-average dividend yield. The price moves around. But the income it generates is meaningful, consistent, and independent of what the stock is doing on any given Tuesday. Selling to avoid price volatility means giving up that income. And over time, the income you give up typically exceeds whatever you thought you were protecting yourself from. The same logic applies to long-held pipeline stocks. The dividend yield on those positions for new buyers today is far less attractive than it was when we established our stake years ago. But we have continued to hold because the income stream we are receiving — based on our original cost basis — is still excellent, and we do not believe we can replicate that income at current prices. This is the part of portfolio management that does not show up in most financial planning software. It is not just about what a stock is worth today. It is about what it pays you while you hold it. A stock that generates consistent income buys you time — time to wait through price volatility without being forced into a sale, time for the thesis on the business to play out, time for the market to re-price something it has temporarily misjudged. That is what I mean when I say income puts time back on your side. In retirement, time is the asset you have the least of. Dividends give some of it back. When Does It Actually Make Sense to Sell? Staying invested does not mean holding everything forever. The argument against panic selling is not an argument against selling. It is an argument for selling with a reason — a real, company-specific, valuation-grounded reason. We trim positions when the math stops making sense. Earlier this year, we reduced our oil company holdings. Not because oil was going to collapse. Not because the market scared us. But because when we looked at the valuations, the stocks had gotten expensive relative to what the underlying business was actually producing. The commodity prices and the stock prices had diverged to a point where the math no longer worked in our favor. That is a logical reason to take some off the table. We also sold Kroger. That one took a little more explanation to clients. Kroger looks like a grocery company. And it is. But a meaningful portion of Kroger’s profitability runs through its fuel stations. When gasoline prices rise and consumption falls, that profit driver weakens. Meanwhile, the grocery side of the business had to contend with sharply higher food prices — which does not help unit volume. The business model was under real pressure on two fronts. The stock price had not fully caught up with that reality. So we sold. Notice what both of those decisions have in common. Neither one was driven by where the S&P 500 was trading or what the Federal Reserve said last week. Both were grounded in a specific company, a specific business dynamic, and a specific valuation judgment. That process has to be built into how you manage a portfolio from the beginning — not invented in the middle of a panic. Investor Howard Marks captured it well: “You can’t predict, but you can prepare.” The preparation is knowing, in advance, what would cause you to sell a given holding. Price hitting a specific valuation threshold? A change in the company’s earnings power? A dividend cut? Define it before the market gets rough, so you are not making those decisions under pressure. “You can’t predict, but you can prepare.” — Howard Marks, investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management What a Large Cash Position Really Signals Right now, Dupree Financial Group holds roughly 35% of client portfolios in cash and short-duration bonds. That is well above our historical norm. And I want to be specific about what that means and what it does not mean. It does not mean we think the market is about to crash. Nobody knows that. It does not mean we are sitting on our hands. Cash in this rate environment still generates a return. What it does mean is that when we look at current equity valuations broadly — across the sectors we know well, the companies we follow closely — we are having a harder time finding things we want to own at current prices. Valuations look stretched relative to what the underlying businesses can reasonably deliver. And when we cannot find things worth buying at the price the market is asking, holding cash is not a failure of nerve. It is a rational response to what the market is offering. Here is the result we can point to: portfolios with that 35% defensive allocation have delivered returns comparable to some fully-invested indexes. Protecting retirement capital while generating competitive returns with meaningfully less risk — that is not a bad outcome. It is actually the whole point. We are not a hedge fund required to be 100% deployed. We are managing retirement money. That means the risk profile — not the potential return — has to come first. The sell discipline flows from the risk profile. Everything else follows from that. The Real Problem With Most 401(k) Portfolios I talk to a lot of people approaching retirement who, when I ask what they own, tell me the names of their funds. Fidelity Target Date 2025. Vanguard Total Market. Some growth fund their HR department selected in 2011. They do not know the underlying holdings. They do not know their actual sector exposure. They do not know what percentage of the fund is in companies that have become very expensive over the past few years, and what percentage is in companies that are still reasonably priced. They do not know whether any of their holdings pay meaningful dividends. What they do know is the price of the fund. And when the price goes down, that is the only signal they have. No context, no analysis, no understanding of whether the drop reflects something real or just a broad market reaction that will pass. So they feel fear. And some of them act on it. That is the trap. And it is compounded right now by something called recency bias — the tendency to assume that what has been happening will keep happening. Markets have gone up for a long time. New IPOs are capturing attention. There is enthusiasm in the air. And enthusiasm breeds complacency. People assume the funds that have been performing well will keep performing well, without checking whether the companies inside them still deserve their valuations. The major indexes have also undergone significant rotation lately — the companies that led for the past several years are no longer the leaders. If you hold a broad index fund and have not looked inside it recently, the portfolio you thought you owned may be meaningfully different from the one you actually own today. Know what you own. Why you own it. And what conditions would cause you to make a change. That is not a complicated framework. But without it, you are flying on instruments you cannot read in weather you did not see coming. What to Actually Do: A Framework for Staying Invested Wisely Here is how we think about it at Dupree Financial Group — and how I would encourage any retirement investor to think about it: Understand each holding before volatility arrives. Know what every position is, what it pays, what would make you sell it, and what would make you add to it. This should be settled before the market gets rough, not improvised in the middle of it. Build income into the portfolio. Dividend-paying holdings provide cash flow that lets you meet retirement expenses without selling assets at depressed prices. This is the most direct and reliable way to manage sequence of returns risk. Sell on valuation, not on fear. If the stock price has risen well beyond what the business justifies — or if something has fundamentally changed in how the company earns money — that is a reason to trim or exit. A declining stock price, by itself, is not. In fact, a declining price in a good business is often a reason to consider adding. Treat cash as a judgment about opportunity, not a retreat from markets. Holding cash is a statement that you do not currently see enough value to deploy it. It keeps you liquid for when better opportunities appear. It is not the same as giving up on investing. If you do not understand your portfolio, get help before the next downturn. You should be able to articulate, in plain terms, what you own and why. If you cannot, find someone who can help you get there. Not a product salesperson — a fiduciary who charges a fee to give you advice that is actually in your interest. Frequently Asked Questions Should I sell my investments when the stock market drops? Selling during a market drop is one of the costliest decisions a retirement investor can make. Research from Hartford Funds shows that 76% of the stock market’s best single days occurred during a bear market or in the first two months of a new bull market. Investors who exit to avoid the declines frequently miss the recoveries that follow almost immediately — often within days. Unless there is a fundamental, company-specific reason to sell, staying invested has historically been the better outcome. How does dividend income protect a retirement portfolio during volatility? Dividend income provides a return that doesn’t depend on stock prices rising. When markets fall, dividends continue to arrive and can cover living expenses without forcing a sale at depressed prices. For retirement investors managing sequence of returns risk, income from dividends reduces or eliminates the need to liquidate holdings at exactly the wrong moment — which is when the long-term damage typically gets done. What is the right way to decide when to sell a stock? The sell decision should be grounded in company-specific valuation and fundamentals — not broad market fear. A position may warrant trimming when its price has risen well beyond what the underlying business justifies, when the dividend yield for new buyers has become unattractive, or when the company’s core business model has changed materially. Selling because the market is falling, absent a specific reason tied to that company, is rarely the right call. Can you successfully time the stock market to avoid losses? Consistent broad market timing has an extremely poor track record. Fidelity’s analysis shows that a hypothetical $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 from 1988 through 2024 grew to over $500,000 for a buy-and-hold investor — but missing just 5 of the best days reduced those gains by 38%, and missing the 50 best days left the investor with under $40,000. The best and worst days cluster together, so exiting to avoid the bad ones typically means missing the good ones too. Valuation analysis on individual holdings is a more reliable guide than macro market calls. What is sequence of returns risk and why does it matter in retirement? Sequence of returns risk is the danger that poor market returns early in retirement — combined with ongoing withdrawals — permanently damage a portfolio before it can recover. Retirement researcher Wade Pfau found that roughly 77% of a portfolio’s final outcome is explained by just the first ten years of returns. Fidelity’s research puts a dollar figure on it: two hypothetical retirees, each starting with $1 million and withdrawing $50,000 a year, experience the same returns over 30 years but in reverse order — one finishes with over $3 million, the other runs out of money by year 27. A dividend-income approach helps manage this risk by providing cash flow that reduces forced selling during down markets. The Close: What the Market Does Not Owe You I learned this one the hard way early in my career, and it cost me personally and it cost some of my clients. The market does not care that you own something. It does not reward loyalty. It does not notice that you’ve held a position through three bad quarters and deserve a good one. The market is just the market. In the long run, it prices things with reasonable efficiency. In the short run, it is highly inefficient — driven by fear, greed, momentum, and a hundred other forces that have nothing to do with the underlying value of the businesses you own. Your job — and our job — is to understand value well enough to hold when the market underprices something good, and to step back when it overprices something we used to like. To get paid while we wait, through dividends. To stay optimistic enough to keep doing this at all, because investing requires belief that businesses will create value over time and that human ingenuity will keep generating things worth owning. None of that is possible if you sell every time it gets uncomfortable. Staying invested is not a passive act. Done right, it is one of the most disciplined things an investor can do. Related Reading and podcasts: The Tom Dupree Show — Full Episode Archive Dupree Financial Group — How We Build Income Portfolios What Is a Fee-Only Fiduciary and Why Does It Matter? Schedule a Complimentary Portfolio Review If you’re not sure whether your portfolio is built to generate income through market volatility — we’ll take a look. No charge. No pressure. Just an honest conversation about what you own and whether it’s working for you. Call: 859-233-0400  |  Visit: dupreefinancial.com About the Author Tom Dupree is the founder of Dupree Financial Group and has worked in the investment industry for 47 years. Dupree Financial Group is a fee-only, fiduciary Registered Investment Advisory firm based in Lexington, Kentucky, specializing in income-generating, dividend-paying portfolios for retirees and those approaching retirement. Tom hosts The Tom Dupree Show, a weekly radio program and podcast covering retirement investing topics in plain English. Dupree Financial Group is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information presented is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The post Staying Invested During Market Volatility: When to Hold and When to Sell | Dupree Financial appeared first on Dupree Financial.

THE TOM DUPREE SHOW  |  PODCAST SHOW NOTES When to Hold, When to Sell: Staying Invested Through Market Volatility The Tom Dupree Show  |  Dupree Financial Group  |  dupreefinancial.com  |  859-233-0400 Episode Description When markets get choppy, the instinct to move to the sidelines can feel overwhelming — but acting on that instinct often costs investors far more than the volatility itself. In this episode, Tom Dupree and Lead Advisor Mike Johnson walk through the discipline behind staying invested, explaining how Dupree Financial Group evaluates when to hold a position, when to trim, and when to walk away entirely. The conversation covers real examples from their current portfolio — including dividend-paying holdings, pipeline stocks, and a diesel engine company that became a quasi-AI play — to illustrate how valuation and income generation shape every buy, hold, and sell decision. Tom and Mike also explain why the firm carries a significant cash position right now, and what that signals about how they view current market valuations. “Income from the portfolio tilts the table in your favor — it puts time back on your side while you wait for price appreciation.” Topics Covered Why panic selling during volatility almost always harms long-term returns How dividend income changes the calculus on whether to hold or sell The difference between timing the market and assessing individual stock valuations Real portfolio decisions: oil companies, pipeline stocks, Kroger, and an AI-adjacent diesel play Why the firm is holding more cash than usual — and what it says about current valuations The perma-bull vs. perma-bear debate and why optimism is essential for long-term investors How a team-based investment approach produces better decisions than any single viewpoint Why most 401(k) holders don’t know what they own — and why that matters more than ever Key Takeaways Dividends give you staying power. When a holding generates consistent income, missing that payout by selling too early is a real cost. Income from your portfolio buys you time to wait out price swings without being forced to sell at the wrong moment. The market’s best days cluster around its worst ones. Nearly half of the 50 best market days over the past 30 years occurred during bear markets. Investors who exit to avoid the drops frequently miss the recoveries that follow within days. Valuation — not emotion — should drive selling decisions. Tom and Mike trim positions when the math no longer makes sense: oil company stocks trading 25% above where they were when oil prices were identical, or a grocery chain whose core margin driver is eroding. Logic, not fear, triggers the sell. You can’t time the market, but you can prepare for it. As investor Howard Marks has noted, the goal isn’t prediction — it’s preparation. Knowing what you own, why you own it, and at what price it becomes expensive puts you in a position to act with clarity rather than react with panic. Not all stocks are meant to be held forever. Some positions are designed to be traded; others are core long-term holds. Understanding the difference — and building that distinction into your process from the start — is what separates disciplined investing from guesswork. A cash position is itself a valuation statement. Dupree Financial Group currently holds a significant cash and bond allocation because valuations look stretched. That defensive posture has allowed the portfolio to perform comparably to fully-invested indexes while taking on meaningfully less risk. Know what you own. Many retirement investors hold mutual funds or target-date funds without understanding the underlying holdings. If price movements in your portfolio are a mystery to you, you’re letting emotions — not analysis — make your decisions for you. About The Tom Dupree Show The Tom Dupree Show is hosted by Tom Dupree, founder of Dupree Financial Group and a 47-year veteran of the investment business. Each episode covers the financial topics that matter most to retirees and those approaching retirement — in plain English, without the Wall Street spin. Dupree Financial Group is a fee-only, fiduciary Registered Investment Advisory firm based in Lexington, Kentucky. The firm manages separately managed accounts focused on income-generating, dividend-paying portfolios — no products sold, no commissions, no conflicts of interest. Past episodes are available at dupreefinancial.com under the podcast tab. Schedule a Complimentary Portfolio Review If you’re not sure whether your portfolio is built to generate income through market volatility — we’ll take a look. No charge. No pressure. Just an honest conversation about what you own and whether it’s working for you. Call: 859-233-0400  |  Visit: dupreefinancial.com Dupree Financial Group is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information presented is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.The post Staying Invested During Market Volatility: When to Hold and When to Sell appeared first on Dupree Financial.

The Hidden Investment Risks Pre-Retirees and Retirees Don’t See Coming: Kentucky Retirement Planning Insights Are you approaching retirement and concerned about protecting your life savings from market volatility? In this comprehensive episode of the Tom Dupree Show, Kentucky retirement planning advisors Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson explore the multidimensional nature of investment risk and why personalized investment management is essential for pre-retirees aged 50-65. Unlike mass-market approaches from large firms, Dupree Financial Group provides direct access to portfolio managers who understand your specific retirement goals and risk tolerance. This evergreen financial education episode delivers timeless wisdom on risk assessment, portfolio protection strategies, and why understanding what you own is critical before retirement. Whether you’re working with a local financial advisor in Kentucky or managing investments on your own, these insights will help you make more informed decisions about your retirement security. Key Takeaways: Investment Risk Management for Pre-Retirees Risk is multidimensional: Investment risk extends beyond simple volatility—it includes sequence of returns risk, concentration risk, and the risk of falling short of your retirement goals The Capital Asset Pricing Model misconception: More risk doesn’t automatically mean more return; it means a wider range of potential outcomes, both positive and negative The danger of false security: Long periods of strong returns can create complacency, causing investors to unknowingly take on excessive risk right before retirement Personalized portfolio analysis matters: Your investment strategy must align with your specific retirement timeline, income needs, and risk capacity—not just market averages Understanding beats panic: Clients who truly understand their portfolio holdings don’t panic during market downturns because they know their strategy is designed for their goals Active risk identification: Professional Kentucky retirement planning involves continuously identifying and monitoring specific risks to each holding, not just following the crowd Howard Marks on Investment Risk: Wisdom from a Market Legend The episode draws heavily from Howard Marks’ influential 2006 memo on risk, which Tom and Mike have studied extensively. Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, challenges conventional thinking about risk and return relationships. “If more risk always meant more return, it would cease being risky. The risk would be riskless,” explains Mike Johnson, highlighting the fundamental misunderstanding many investors have about the risk-return relationship. The discussion emphasizes that bearing risk unknowingly represents one of the biggest mistakes pre-retirees can make. This is particularly relevant for those who have experienced strong market performance for years without understanding the volatility embedded in their portfolios. The Real-World Cost of Ignoring Investment Risk Tom Dupree shares a cautionary tale that every pre-retiree should hear: “There was a man that came to me years ago who had been at UK for a number of years. He had invested in Fidelity and TIAA-CREF, good funds, great returns. He had something like 1,000,006 and he had averaged 13 and a quarter percent return per year for like 23 years. He extrapolated that he could take 10% a year, which was $160,000, live on it and be okay because it was gonna keep doing that. The sequence of returns turned around and bit him good.” This example perfectly illustrates sequence of returns risk—a critical concept for anyone approaching retirement. Even with excellent average returns, the timing of market downturns relative to when you need to withdraw funds can devastate a retirement plan. This is why personalized investment management from a local financial advisor who understands your specific timeline is so valuable. Why Volatility Isn’t the Only Risk Pre-Retirees Face The episode challenges the traditional definition of investment risk as merely volatility. For pre-retirees and retirees specifically, Mike Johnson explains: “The base case that we’re trying to solve here? We’re speaking specifically to near retirees and retirees. Volatility is gonna be your friend or your foe the day you need to take your money out. That’s gonna be your definition of risk—what has the volatility done to my money the day I need it.” Additional Risk Dimensions for Kentucky Retirement Planning Falling short of goals: The risk that your portfolio won’t produce sufficient income for your desired retirement lifestyle Concentration risk: Over-exposure to single stocks or sectors, especially common with company stock or recent tech winners Unconventionality risk: The professional risk advisors take when thinking independently rather than following the crowd—but this can benefit clients long-term Underperformance risk: Short-term underperformance relative to indices, which requires conviction in your strategy and understanding your goals Hidden risk exposure: Unknown risks embedded in portfolios, particularly index funds that provide no true diversification strategy The False Sense of Security: Why Long Bull Markets Are Dangerous One of the most powerful concepts discussed is how prolonged positive market performance can numb investors to risk—exactly when they should be most vigilant. Mike Johnson references Nassim Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness” to illustrate this danger: “Reality’s far more vicious than Russian roulette. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds or even thousands of rounds instead of six. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet under a numbing false sense of security. One is thus capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette and calling it by something alternative: low risk.” This perfectly describes the situation many pre-retirees face today after years of strong market performance. The analogy to driving at 90 mph—where you stop feeling the speed—resonates powerfully. You’re taking significant risk, but you’ve become accustomed to it and no longer perceive the danger. Direct Access to Portfolio Managers: The Dupree Financial Difference Unlike large firms where you’re assigned an investment counselor who may change frequently, Dupree Financial Group provides direct access to portfolio managers Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson. This relationship-focused approach enables: Deep understanding of your specific retirement timeline and goals Customized portfolio construction based on your unique risk capacity Ongoing education about what you own and why you own it Proactive risk identification specific to your holdings The ability to think unconventionally when it serves your interests “When our clients understand what’s in their portfolio and why, they don’t call us panicking when the market drops,” Tom Dupree emphasizes, highlighting the value of education and transparency in financial relationships. Why Index Funds Aren’t a Complete Investment Strategy The episode delivers a sobering message about the limitations of index fund investing for retirees: “If you don’t like risk and you think that you’re not taking any risk by investing in the S&P 500, sweetie pie, you need to get in the money market fund and just hope you got enough money to ride through it because you are taking risk that you don’t know about. And that is a problem because you’re gonna find it out in a very uncomfortable way at some point.” This doesn’t mean index funds have no place in portfolios, but rather that they shouldn’t be confused with a comprehensive retirement income strategy. Personalized portfolio analysis considers: Your specific income needs in retirement Time horizon until you need to access funds Concentration risk in popular stocks or sectors The difference between the accumulation and distribution phases Tax efficiency of different investment approaches Building a Foundation: From Stocks to Portfolio For younger investors just starting out, Mike Johnson offers this perspective: “If somebody’s in their late twenties, early thirties and they have a few stocks here and there, that’s great. You’re ahead of the curve from a lot of people, but that is not a portfolio. What you want to do is lay a foundation that’s more sturdy, more solid than just having a few stocks here and there.” This guidance is equally relevant for pre-retirees who may have accumulated individual positions over time without a cohesive strategy. Kentucky retirement planning requires transitioning from an accumulation mindset to a distribution strategy—and that requires professional portfolio architecture. The Retirement Risk Equation: It’s About Income, Not Just Account Balance One of the most important insights for pre-retirees: “Remember, it’s not just the accumulation, it’s not the dollar amount, it’s what it’s gonna produce for you and how long can it produce that to sustain you. Retirement has the normal set of rules plus other variables that you have to take into consideration.” This shift in perspective—from portfolio value to sustainable income—is where personalized investment management becomes critical. Every individual’s situation differs slightly, and those differences matter enormously in retirement planning. Faith, Risk, and Investment Philosophy Tom Dupree introduces an often-overlooked dimension of investment risk: the role of faith. Not just faith in markets or historical returns, but a deeper consideration of existential risk and what you ultimately trust. “Underpinning any investment scheme is faith. At the base of everything related to risk is faith. You cannot get away from it. One of the things about the God factor is that it takes certain elements of risk that you’re willing to take on for yourself and transfers them to a higher power.” While this dimension is personal and not emphasized in typical financial planning, it reflects Dupree Financial Group’s holistic approach to understanding clients as people—not just portfolios. Frequently Asked Questions About Investment Risk and Retirement Planning What is the biggest investment risk for pre-retirees? The biggest risk for pre-retirees is sequence-of-returns risk—experiencing market downturns just as you begin withdrawing from your portfolio. Even with strong average returns over time, poor returns in the years immediately before and after retirement can devastate your retirement security. This is why personalized retirement planning in Kentucky focuses on more than just average returns. How is investment risk different for retirees versus younger investors? For retirees, risk is primarily defined by volatility’s impact on withdrawals. When you need to take money out during a market downturn, you crystallize losses and reduce your portfolio’s recovery potential. Younger investors have time to recover from volatility. As Tom Dupree explains, “Volatility is gonna be your friend or your foe the day you need to take your money out.” Are index funds safe for retirement portfolios? Index funds are not inherently “safe” for retirement—they carry significant volatility and concentration risks (especially in large-cap tech stocks right now). While they can be part of a retirement strategy, they should not be confused with a comprehensive income plan. Local financial advisors can help design strategies that balance growth needs with income stability. How much can I safely withdraw from my retirement portfolio annually? There’s no universal answer—withdrawal rates depend on your portfolio composition, risk tolerance, retirement timeline, and income needs. The gentleman in Tom’s example assumed 10% annual withdrawals based on historical 13.25% returns, which proved disastrous. Personalized portfolio analysis determines sustainable withdrawal rates specific to your situation. Why should I work with a local Kentucky financial advisor instead of a large national firm? Local advisors like Dupree Financial Group provide direct access to portfolio managers who personally manage your investments, rather than being assigned to a counselor who may change. You receive personalized service, education about your holdings, and strategies tailored to your specific goals—not mass-market approaches. Tom emphasizes: “When our clients understand what’s in their portfolio and why, they don’t call us panicking when the market drops.” What does it mean to “know what you own” in my portfolio? Knowing what you own means understanding not just the names of your holdings, but the specific risks each position carries, how they work together, and why each was selected for your situation. It means knowing what could go wrong with each investment and having conviction in your overall strategy during market volatility. How often should I review my retirement portfolio risk? Pre-retirees should review portfolio risk at least annually, and more frequently as retirement approaches. Risk tolerance, time horizon, and income needs change as you near retirement. Kentucky retirement planning professionals continuously monitor holdings for emerging risks and rebalance as needed. What is concentration risk, and why does it matter? Concentration risk occurs when your portfolio has too much exposure to a single stock, sector, or asset class. Many investors have unknowingly accumulated concentration in large technology stocks through both index funds and individual holdings. If that sector declines, your entire portfolio suffers disproportionately. Diversification addresses concentration risk. How do I know if I’m taking too much risk before retirement? Signs you may have excessive risk include: heavy concentration in stocks after years of strong returns, high portfolio volatility relative to your withdrawal timeline, lack of income-producing assets, or simply not understanding what you own. A complimentary portfolio review with Dupree Financial Group can identify hidden risks: call 859-233-0400. What makes Dupree Financial Group’s investment philosophy different? Dupree Financial Group focuses on building long-term relationships with people—not just managing money. The team conducts their own research, provides comprehensive education, thinks independently rather than following the crowd, and designs portfolios around your specific goals. Learn more about their investment philosophy. Schedule Your Complimentary Portfolio Risk Analysis Don’t Wait for a Market Downturn to Discover Hidden Risks in Your Portfolio If you’re retired or approaching retirement, understanding the specific risks in your portfolio is critical. After 47 years in the investment business, Tom Dupree has seen countless retirees discover they were taking far more risk than they realized—often at the worst possible time. Dupree Financial Group offers Central Kentucky residents a complimentary portfolio review to help you: Identify hidden concentration risks in your current holdings Understand the sequence-of-returns risk as you approach retirement Evaluate whether your portfolio aligns with your retirement income needs Learn what you actually own and why it matters Develop a personalized strategy for your retirement timeline Call 859-233-0400 to schedule your complimentary consultation Or visit us online: Schedule Your Personalized Portfolio Analysis Learn About Our Investment Philosophy Listen to More Market Commentary Read Client Testimonials Explore Kentucky Retirement Planning Services Dupree Financial Group serves clients throughout Central Kentucky, including Lexington, Louisville, Frankfort, Winchester, Richmond, and surrounding communities. About the Tom Dupree Show The Tom Dupree Show provides timeless financial education for investors approaching and in retirement. Hosted by Tom Dupree, Jr., founder of Dupree Financial Group, and portfolio manager Mike Johnson, each episode delivers practical insights on investment management, retirement planning, and portfolio risk assessment. Unlike generic financial advice, the show focuses on the specific challenges facing Kentucky retirees and pre-retirees. Tom Dupree founded Dupree Financial Group on the principle that creating long-term relationships with people—not just their money—is the key to successful wealth management. With direct access to portfolio managers and personalized investment strategies, Dupree Financial Group delivers the attentive service of a local advisor with the knowledge of a seasoned investment team. Episode Type: Evergreen Financial Education Primary Topics: Investment Risk, Retirement Planning, Portfolio Management, Sequence of Returns Risk Featured Guests: Mike Johnson, a member of the team at Dupree Financial Group Listen to More Episodes: Market Commentary Archive Share This Episode Help others understand investment risk by sharing this episode: www.dupreefinancial.com/podcast The post The Hidden Investment Risks You Don’t See Coming: Kentucky Retirement Planning Insights appeared first on Dupree Financial.

Today's guest is Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management, author of A Wealth of Common Sense and host of the Animal Spirits podcast. In today's episode, Ben unpacks the counterintuitive math behind long term investing. He reveals that picking the wrong asset every year still makes money, that the average up year tops 20%, and that stocks grow less volatile than bonds the longer you hold. To close, Ben explains why patience has never been harder. (0:00) Starts (2:05) Ben Carlson on the secret to investing (5:00) The worst investor ever (15:20) Tax management as new alpha (17:12) Inflation's impact on asset classes (21:06) "Now do Japan" (33:02) Lessons from bear markets (41:54) Discretionary investing challenges (46:31) Poor performance of hyperactive traders ----- Sponsor: ⁠⁠Ivy Invest⁠ ⁠- To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit⁠ ⁠ivyinvest.co/fund ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With the right asset classes and the right operators, Real Estate is a slow and steady investment vehicle, but can still entail risk. Over the past 3-5 years, many passive investors have lost money. The best way to mitigate this risk is to invest with experienced fund operators who vet the operators and the opportunities withing the fund for you. Great investors like Warren Buffet, Charles Munger, Howard Marks and others, invest in boring, predictable things they know will endure. Paul Moore, The “Boring Investor,” and Founder of Wellings Capital, is operating his eighth successful fund that invests across recession resistant asset classes.

In today's episode, Meb celebrates the release of his new book, Investing in America, a coffee table history of the 250 year bull market. He explains the magic of compounding, why every decade feels like chaos, and the surprising fact that stocks become less volatile than bonds over long horizons. To close, Meb weighs today's valuations against the long view. ----- Follow Meb on⁠ X⁠,⁠ LinkedIn⁠ and⁠ YouTube⁠ For detailed show notes, click ⁠here⁠ To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our ⁠mailing list⁠ or visit us at⁠ cambriainvestments.com⁠ ----- Follow The Idea Farm: ⁠X⁠ | ⁠LinkedIn⁠ | ⁠Instagram⁠ | ⁠TikTok⁠ ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include ⁠Ed Thorp⁠, ⁠Richard Thaler⁠, ⁠Jeremy Grantham⁠, ⁠Joel Greenblatt⁠, ⁠Campbell Harvey⁠, ⁠Ivy Zelman⁠, ⁠Kathryn Kaminski⁠, ⁠Jason Calacanis⁠, ⁠Whitney Baker,⁠ ⁠Aswath Damodaran⁠, ⁠Howard Marks⁠, ⁠Tom Barton⁠, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out ⁠here⁠!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's guest is Bryan Taylor, founder and chief economist of Finaeon, which has the most comprehensive database of historical financial market data in the world. He's just published Five Financial Eras: How Financial Markets Transformed the World. In today's episode, Bryan explains his TWIG framework of trade, war, inflation, and government, and how their combination drives returns across centuries of market history. He challenges the belief in a fixed equity risk premium and revisits seven decades of negative real bond returns. To close, Bryan explains why the post-1981 playbook no longer applies. (0:00) Starts (1:25) Sponsor: Ivy Invest (2:37) Bryan Taylor explains the TWIG framework (10:20) There is no single equity risk premium (21:18) Government debt, market capitalization, and global market position (26:17) The impact of technology revolutions on markets (28:30) Historical changes in investment trends (38:22) Cultural shifts in investing (47:36) Evolution of stock market indices and future projects (52:03) Currency discussion ----- Sponsor: ⁠⁠Ivy Invest⁠ ⁠- To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit⁠ ⁠ivyinvest.co/fund⁠ ----- Follow Meb on⁠ X⁠,⁠ LinkedIn⁠ and⁠ YouTube⁠ For detailed show notes, click ⁠here⁠ To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our ⁠mailing list⁠ or visit us at⁠ cambriainvestments.com⁠ ----- Follow The Idea Farm: ⁠X⁠ | ⁠LinkedIn⁠ | ⁠Instagram⁠ | ⁠TikTok⁠ ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include ⁠Ed Thorp⁠, ⁠Richard Thaler⁠, ⁠Jeremy Grantham⁠, ⁠Joel Greenblatt⁠, ⁠Campbell Harvey⁠, ⁠Ivy Zelman⁠, ⁠Kathryn Kaminski⁠, ⁠Jason Calacanis⁠, ⁠Whitney Baker,⁠ ⁠Aswath Damodaran⁠, ⁠Howard Marks⁠, ⁠Tom Barton⁠, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out ⁠here⁠!  -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kyle Grieve discusses what bubbles are, why they form, and why they always feel different in real time. He'll examine historical patterns through frameworks from Insana, Kindleberger, and Howard Marks, and explain how investors can protect themselves by focusing on intrinsic value over narratives rather than speculation. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: (00:00:00) Intro (00:02:31) Why understanding bubbles is critical for long-term investor survival (00:04:31) How “this time is different” fuels every historical bubble (00:05:37) Why smart money, incentives, and career risk inflate bubbles (00:07:21) How investors rationalize bubbles using new, useless KPIs (00:08:56) The predictable emotional arc: skepticism, euphoria, panic, collapse (00:10:04) Why price detaches from intrinsic value during bubbles (00:12:28) Kindleberger's five stages: displacement, boom, revulsion, discredit (00:30:58) Lessons from tiny bubbles like plank roads and Beanie Babies (00:53:01) How human nature, not technology, causes recurring bubbles (01:08:44) How to protect portfolios from bubbles by focusing on value, not narratives Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Track ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Portfolio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Buy Trendwatching. Follow Kyle on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linkedin⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Related ⁠books⁠ mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses through ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Investor's Podcast Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠⁠: ⁠Plus500⁠ ⁠Netsuite⁠ ⁠Vanta⁠ ⁠Shopify⁠ References to any third-party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investor's Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Today's guest is Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, which he's been publishing since 1983. He's a financial historian and one of the most well-respected Observers on Wall Street. In today's episode, Jim Grant explains why AI may be one of the greatest bubbles of all time, alongside the railroads and the dot-com era. He reframes deflation as progress, questions how murky the $2 trillion private credit market is, and explains why the Fed can't aggressively fight inflation. To close, Jim makes his case for gold and revisits 1984, which he calls the clearest example of how strange markets can be. (0:00) Starts (0:39) Jim Grant on AI mania (12:23) The economic implications of inflation & deflation (19:56) Interest rates and private credit concerns (27:13) The Fed's inflation target (41:10) How to fix the Federal Reserve (45:09) The history and role of gold in portfolios (54:34) Jim's most memorable investment (57:28) Historical periods to study ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Corporation, and Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, spoke with Barron's editor at large Andy Serwer. This interview was filmed on June 9, 2026. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest today is Charles Ellis, founder of Greenwich Associates, longtime member of Yale's investment committee, and author of more than 20 books, including the classic Winning the Loser's Game. In today's episode, Charley reflects on writing the first major book on share repurchases 50 years ago, when the idea was so foreign that Goldman mailed it to 1,000 corporations as a “legitimizer.” Charley also walks us through his new book, Great American Investments: A History of the Bold Initiatives that Shaped a Nation, covering 14 audacious public investments from the Louisiana Purchase to the Marshall Plan. He explains how each came down to one or two obsessed individuals, why Alaska turned out to be the bargain of the century, and how Frances Perkins muscled Social Security into law. As the episode winds down, he shares the lunch with Sandy Gottesman in the early 1970s that led him to buy Berkshire Hathaway at $700 a share — and hold it ever since. (0:00) Starts (1:54) Charley on stock buybacks (8:06) Current state of investing and behavioral economics (11:37) Advice for young investors and long-term strategies (16:41) Charley's new book: Great American Investments: A History of the Bold Initiatives that Shaped a Nation (25:42) The origins of social Security (32:46) American entrepreneurship (36:43) Will AI be the next great American investment? (42:34) Most memorable investment ----- Sponsor: ⁠Ivy Invest ⁠- To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit ⁠ivyinvest.co/fund ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's guest is Will Goetzmann, Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management. He is an expert on financial markets and securities, investment strategies, investor behavior and financial history. In today's episode, Professor Goetzmann walks through 5,000 years of financial history, showing how finance shaped trade, cities, corporations, and investing. He covers the first compound interest calculation, the world's oldest corporations and bonds, and historic bubbles from tulips to NFTs. To close, he explains why markets have repeatedly adapted through war, crisis, and uncertainty. (0:00) Starts (1:50) William Goetzmann on origins of money (7:06) The history of corporations (14:43) Yale's historical bond and early financial innovation (17:33) Parallels between historical and modern financial bubbles (25:52) SpaceX IPO and market valuations (27:26) Herd mentality and bubbles (32:47) Global investing, inflation, and currencies (41:13) Finance-related art (46:31) Most memorable investment ----- Sponsor: Ivy Invest - To learn more about Ivy Invest's SEC-registered endowment-style fund, view the prospectus, and learn how to invest, visit ivyinvest.co/fund ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Everyone's talking about what AI is going to disrupt. The question most investors aren't asking: What happens after that disruption, and who actually wins? The obvious answer and the right answer are rarely the same thing. In this episode, Greg introduces a framework he first encountered through Howard Marks: first-level vs. second-level thinking. First-level thinking reacts to what's in front of you. Second-level thinking follows the chain of consequences and the ripple effects most people ignore. In an era where AI can reshape an industry in months, the gap between those two ways of thinking has never been more costly to ignore.From there, Greg walks through real portfolio positions—Intel (INTC) and Accenture (ACN)—to show how second-level thinking plays out in practice. He also runs through a handful of names—Union Pacific (UNP), UPS (UPS), GE Vernova (GEV), Chevron (CVX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Merck (MRK)—to illustrate which kinds of businesses AI threatens, which ones it quietly strengthens, and why some of the most "boring" dividend stocks may be the most defensible investments of the next decade. The core argument: brands, software, and moats built on perception are vulnerable. Logistics, infrastructure, and physical production are not, and AI may actually make them stronger.Topics Covered:[00:41] Introduction & why AI matters for dividend investors [04:47] First-level vs. second-level thinking — the Howard Marks framework [08:43] AI is accelerating disruption — and may be technology's own worst enemy [11:21] Are strong brands and moats as durable as we thought? [13:50] Why physical infrastructure may be the best AI defense [15:19] Intel ($INTC) — patience, conviction, and the US chip story [18:16] Accenture ($ACN) — the market's fear may be first-level thinking [22:21] Union Pacific ($UNP), UPS ($UPS) — logistics AI can't replace [24:27] Rapid-fire second-level takes: GEV, CVX, LMT, GD, JNJ, MRK [28:08] Final takeaway: the game has changed, sustainable dividend growth requires a new lens Send us Fan Mail________ Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.________ RESOURCES:Schedule a meeting with us: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & ModelsIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a reviewFollow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

While in Omaha for Berkshire week, Meb hopped on another podcast as a guest. It was a fun one, so we're releasing it here as well. In today's episode, Meb Faber makes the case against home country bias, pointing to Korea's near-triple and Japan's decades-long round trip as reminders that cycles always turn. He explains why shareholder yield tells a truer story than dividends, why there are now more ETFs than stocks, and why tax alpha matters more than chasing returns. To close, Meb reflects on multi-decade compounding — and the mistakes that quietly take investors out of the game. (0:00) Starts (2:06) Meb's thoughts on Warren Buffett (5:11) Global diversification and home country bias (14:29) Shareholder yield (27:45) Positive investment behaviors (30:19) The ETF industry and the current investment landscape (35:18) Rapid fire questions ----- Sponsor: Want to learn more about 351 Exchanges? Visit the Alpha Architect 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Investments in securities entail risks, including possible loss of principal and are not suitable for all investors. ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

MSE host Bill Powers applies Howard Marks' January 2020 memo “You Bet” to junior mining speculation, emphasizing that decision quality and outcomes aren't the same because both luck and process drive results. Drawing on Annie Duke's book “Thinking in Bets,” Powers urges probabilistic thinking, accurate assessment of one's own skills and being comfortable uncertainty. Marks' framework distinguishes games by hidden information, luck, and skill. Powers argues junior resource markets are less efficient “alpha markets” where skill does matter. A key lesson is evaluating the “proposition” (odds relative to the price) rather than just picking the “favorite” or “best.” Action items: read the memo, read Duke's book, and audit recent investments for accurate proposition identification and probabilistic reasoning. 00:00 Mindset Reset 00:31 Howard Marks Memo 02:10 Process Not Outcome 04:34 Thinking in Bets 06:16 Games Luck Skill 08:19 Alpha Markets Edge 09:06 The Proposition 12:02 Nifty Fifty Junk Bonds 14:14 Eight Gambling Lessons 19:57 Second Level Thinking 20:27 Action Items Howard Mark's “You Bet” memo: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/you-bet.pdf?sfvrsn=785dbe65_8 Annie Duke's “Thinking in Bets”: https://www.annieduke.com/books/ Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Bill Powers is not a licensed financial advisor. Mining Stock Education offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its content and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. MSE and its owner may hold financial interests in the companies discussed and can trade such securities without notice. MSE is biased towards its advertising sponsors which make this platform possible. MSE is not liable for representations, warranties, or omissions in its content. By accessing MSE content, users agree that MSE and its affiliates bear no liability related to the information provided or the investment decisions you make. Full disclaimer: https://www.miningstockeducation.com/disclaimer/

Buffett ha liquidado Visa, Mastercard y Domino's. El PE de Shiller está a menos del 5% de superar la burbuja puntocom. Y aquí, oficialmente, no pasa nada. Resumen semanal del 16 de mayo de 2026. Repasamos los 13F del trimestre (Berkshire, Druckenmiller, Ackman, Pat Dorsey, Howard Marks), la operación financiera del año — IREN colocando 3.000 millones al 1% — y las grietas que empiezan a abrirse en la economía real mientras Wall Street toca máximos históricos. CAPÍTULOS Actualidad y macro - Sentimiento, PE de Shiller y el +20% tech en 4 semanas que solo se ha visto en 1929 y 2000 - SpaceX a bolsa: ticker $SPCX, debut previsto 12 de junio - Trump y China: el viaje, Taiwán y los H200 de Nvidia - Bonos del Tesoro a 30 años al 5%, primera vez desde 2007 - Morosidad récord en tarjetas, préstamos estudiantiles y de coche - S&P 500 en máximos vs consumer sentiment en mínimos históricos - Costco huele la recesión antes que los economistas Los 13F del Q1 2026 - Berkshire: Buffett liquida Visa, Mastercard, Domino's, UnitedHealth y carga Google (+204%) - Druckenmiller: fuera de Alphabet, entrada masiva en YPF, Roku, Broadcom y STM - Bill Ackman: Microsoft pasa a ser "core holding" de Pershing Square - Pat Dorsey: posición del 10% en AppLovin - Howard Marks (Oaktree): rotación a TORM, Expand Energy y Petrobras - Top 10 compras consensuadas del trimestre Acciones bajo el radar - Ondas Holding: ingresos +1.000% YoY y alianza con Palantir - IREN: 3.000 millones en convertibles al 1,96% efectivo — más barato que el gobierno de EEUU - HIMS: ingresos +1.400% desde 2020, acción prácticamente plana - AST SpaceMobile: Trump compra acciones y JV de AT&T, T-Mobile y Verizon - Lululemon: revenue +300%, cotización -2% - Constellation Software: segundo mayor trimestre de M&A de su historia - Watches of Switzerland: USA +24% y la acción sube un 13% - Top 10 mineras de cobre: quién ha cumplido y quién no ÍNDICE 00:00 - Superinversores y mercado en máximos 02:14 - La burbuja de las grandes IPO 03:38 - Trump, China y bonos al 5% 08:06 - Buffett, Druckenmiller y Ackman 14:33 - Ondas Holdings 18:30 - IREN: resultados, NVIDIA y expansión 25:20 - HIMS: caída, GLP-1 y nueva tesis 29:14 - ASTS: acuerdos, satélites y ejecución 31:13 - Resultados y materias primas 34:48 - Cierre ══════════════ Dos cosas que debes saber: 1 - Cada día mandamos un email con una idea, estrategia o reflexión privada para que avances más rápido en tu camino como inversor. El de hoy ya te lo has perdido, si quieres recibir el de mañana, te apuntas en: https://locosdewallstreet.com/7-errores/ 2 - Al apuntarte recibes un video titulado «7 errores fatales (muy habituales) en la selección de oportunidades en bolsa». Me da igual en lo que inviertas, tus años de experiencia o el tamaño de tu cartera. Si inviertes deberías verlo (antes de tomar una decisión de la que poder arrepentirte). Lo recibes al apuntarte en nuestra newsletter aquí: https://locosdewallstreet.com/7-errores/ ══════════════ DISCLAIMER El contenido de este canal de YouTube tiene exclusivamente fines educativos y no constituye asesoramiento financiero ni recomendaciones de inversión. Todos los temas tratados están diseñados para ayudar a los espectadores a entender mejor el mundo de las finanzas, pero las decisiones de inversión deben tomarse de forma personal y bajo la responsabilidad de cada individuo. Invertir en mercados financieros conlleva riesgos significativos debido a su complejidad y volatilidad. Es posible perder parte o la totalidad del capital invertido. Por ello, es fundamental que realices tu propio análisis antes de tomar cualquier decisión y, si lo consideras necesario, consultes con un profesional financiero acreditado. Recomendamos: - Contar con un fondo de emergencia equivalente a al menos tres meses de tus gastos básicos antes de invertir. - Analizar muy detenidamente y con precisión cualquier inversión. - En caso de duda consultes con un asesor financiero certificado por CNMV - Mantenerte alejado de promesas de rentabilidades astronómicas, dinero rápido u otros esquemas engañosos. En Locos de Wall Street, nuestra misión es fomentar una educación financiera sólida, ética y accesible para todos, ayudando a nuestros seguidores a tomar decisiones informadas y responsables. ══════════════

Today's guest is Tom Lee, CIO of Fundstrat Capital, PM for the Granny Shots U.S. Large Cap ETF, and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served as J.P. Morgan's Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014. In today's episode, Tom explains why stocks have remained resilient despite war, higher oil prices, and widespread investor skepticism. He shares his outlook for the S&P 500 and discusses the coming wave of mega-IPOs. Finally, Tom covers his successful entrance into the ETF space with the Fundstrat Granny Shots ETFs. (0:00) Starts (1:35) Tom Lee on markets since the Iran war (10:02) Issues with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (20:50) AI & upcoming IPOs (24:34) Granny Shots ETF (31:25) Tom on crypto (36:52) Tom's most memorable investment Visit ⁠www.fundstrat.com/tom⁠ for complimentary access to Tom's daily insights, market alerts, live webinars, and stock lists. ----- Sponsor: Want to learn more about 351 Exchanges? Visit the Alpha Architect 351 Education Center for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Investments in securities entail risks, including possible loss of principal and are not suitable for all investors. ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After over a decade of rapid growth and relative calm, the private credit market has come under pressure as several high-profile defaults, concerns about valuations, and exposure to a software industry vulnerable to AI disruption have fueled a surge in redemption requests. In this episode, Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, Michael Arougheti, co-founder and CEO of Ares Management, and Amanda Lynam, chief credit strategist in Goldman Sachs Research, discuss the recent private credit stresses and the longer-term outlook for the asset class with host Allison Nathan. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report. This episode was recorded on April 11, 15, 21, and May 1, 2026. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at ⁠⁠http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html⁠⁠. Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva weighs in on the Iran war and how its effecting global growth and inflation. Then Oaktree's Howard Marks on the impact of the war on stocks and whether he sees an AI bubble. Plus, the CEOs of Anthropic and JPMorgan speaking at an Anthropic event about the impact of AI on finance. We bring you those comments, this hour. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

ACESSO VITALÍCIO À FINCLASS COM 50% DE DESCONTO, MAIS DE 80 CURSOS E RECOMENDAÇÕES DE INVESTIMENTOS, ALÉM DE VÁRIOS BÔNUS! https://finc.ly/408c57681fOtávio Magalhães é fundador e diretor de investimentos da Guepardo Investimentos, gestora independente de ações brasileiras com quase 25 anos de história.Em uma janela de 25 anos, a Guepardo multiplicou o patrimônio dos cotistas em 118 vezes, com retorno médio de 21% ao ano líquido de taxas. Pra ter ideia da façanha: nenhuma ação do Ibovespa, tirando WEG, entregou esse retorno no período. E a Guepardo nunca teve WEG.Como isso é possível? Otávio explica nesse episódio o método que ele construiu ao longo de duas décadas e meia: como avaliar uma empresa de verdade, por que margem de segurança é o único controle de risco que importa, por que renda fixa é "do preguiçoso" e onde estão as melhores oportunidades hoje na bolsa brasileira.Ele abre as teses da casa: Vulcabras (o melhor investimento da história da gestora, onde o preço médio menos dividendos já ficou negativo), Grupo Mateus, Klabin, Alos e a parceria com a Kinea. Detona Petrobras e estatais. E ainda dá uma aula sobre por que diversificação é, na maioria das vezes, sinal de que a empresa vai te queimar dinheiro.Aperta o play. Esse aqui é pra ouvir mais de uma vez.Finclass | 5 anos formando investidores no Brasil. No aniversário, o vitalício saiu por 50% de desconto: 12x de R$ 250 (de R$ 6.000 por R$ 3.000). São mais de 80 cursos com Gustavo Cerbasi, Howard Marks, Thiago Nigro, Bruno Perini, duas carteiras recomendadas, lives diárias com analistas e a maior comunidade de investidores do Brasil! https://finc.ly/408c57681fSIGA O PESSOAL: Ricardo Figueiredo: @ricardo.fiisEvandro Medeiros: @oevandromedeirosOtávio Magalhães / Guepardo: @guepardoinvestimentos

Today's guest is Marc Seidner, PIMCO's CIO of Non-traditional Strategies. He is also a generalist portfolio manager and a member of the Investment Committee. In today's episode, Marc explores why the investing landscape has changed from one led by economics to one increasingly shaped by politics and geopolitics. He explains why bonds may offer one of the most compelling opportunities in years, while private credit continues to show stress. He also touches on the K-shape economy and why real assets may help portfolios withstand a more uncertain world. (0:00) Starts (1:50) Global economic landscape (4:47) Golden age of fixed income (7:32) Equity vs. fixed income ownership (10:13) K-shaped recovery (15:06) Private credit concerns (17:49) Value over growth, global diversification, and real assets (24:50) International diversification & emerging market bonds (33:05) IPO landscape ----- Sponsor: To learn more about CAOS, read the Fund's prospectus and important information, visit: funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos ----- Follow Meb on⁠ X⁠,⁠ LinkedIn⁠ and⁠ YouTube⁠ For detailed show notes, click ⁠here⁠ To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our ⁠mailing list⁠ or visit us at⁠ cambriainvestments.com⁠ ----- Follow The Idea Farm: ⁠X⁠ | ⁠LinkedIn⁠ | ⁠Instagram⁠ | ⁠TikTok⁠ ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include ⁠Ed Thorp⁠, ⁠Richard Thaler⁠, ⁠Jeremy Grantham⁠, ⁠Joel Greenblatt⁠, ⁠Campbell Harvey⁠, ⁠Ivy Zelman⁠, ⁠Kathryn Kaminski⁠, ⁠Jason Calacanis⁠, ⁠Whitney Baker,⁠ ⁠Aswath Damodaran⁠, ⁠Howard Marks⁠, ⁠Tom Barton⁠, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out ⁠here⁠!  -----  Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of Chit Chat Stocks, Brett and Ryan go through another "superinvestor" by studying Howard Marks and his approach to the debt investing markets. We discuss:(00:00) Introduction(10:12) Understanding investing philosophy(15:24) Case Studies: The Great Financial Crisis and Inter Milan Investment(30:13) Navigating the COVID-19 Panic: Airline Investments(36:25) The TORM Case Study: A Debt-to-Equity Success(41:59) Key Takeaways from Howard Marks' Investment Philosophy(46:21) AI and Private Credit: Future Considerations*****************************************************Subscribe to our newsletter, Emerging Moats: emergingmoats.com *********************************************************************Chit Chat Stocks is presented by Interactive Brokers. Get professional pricing, global access, and premier technology with the best brokerage for investors today: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC. *********************************************************************Check out Value Spotlight: Stockwriteup.com *********************************************************************Fiscal.ai is building the future of financial data.With custom charts, AI-generated research reports, and endless analytical tools, you can get up to speed on any stock around the globe. All for a reasonable price. Use our LINK and get 15% off any premium plan: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/chitchat *********************************************************************Disclosure: Chit Chat Stocks hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation.

Today's guest is Samuel Hartzmark, a finance professor at Boston College. In today's episode, Sam explores why dividends are so often misunderstood by investors. He explains the “free dividends fallacy” and how it can lead to inflated valuations and price dislocations. He also examines the tradeoffs between dividends and buybacks and how payout policies influence investor behavior. To close, Sam briefly touches on his research on prediction markets and ESG. (0:00) Starts (1:59) Sam Hartzmark on dividend misconceptions (15:24) Mutual funds juicing dividend yields (27:26) Buybacks, shareholder yield, and reinvesting dividends (39:57) Tax optimization (43:40) Importance of total return (52:26) Divestment, prediction markets, and memorable investments ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

ACESSO VITALÍCIO À FINCLASS COM 50% DE DESCONTO, MAIS DE 80 CURSOS E RECOMENDAÇÕES DE INVESTIMENTOS, ALÉM DE VÁRIOS BÔNUS! https://finc.ly/d461984f66 ASSISTA AO PODCAST COMPLETO NO NOSSO CANAL! ▶️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVUJjptdUPA&t=955s O mercado externo já está posicionando fichas para 2026.E o Brasil está no centro do tabuleiro.Marcos Troyjo foi presidente do Banco dos BRICS. Sentou na mesma mesa com China, Rússia, Índia e África do Sul. Circula nos bastidores de Washington, Bruxelas e Pequim.Hoje ele vem ao Os Economistas contar o que esses mercados estão pensando sobre o Brasil, sobre 2026, e sobre o que está em jogo para o fluxo de capital estrangeiro no país.No programa de hoje:O sentimento real do mercado externo sobre as eleições brasileiras. Como Wall Street está precificando 2026. O que gestores que movem bilhões perguntam primeiro sobre o Brasil. Lula, Putin e o custo real de cada aproximação diplomática. A guerra das terras raras e onde o Brasil se encaixa nessa disputa. A moeda dos BRICS: projeto de verdade ou narrativa política. Taiwan, chips e o gatilho que pode travar a economia global.É o tipo de conversa que não acontece em entrevista de TV.Antes de continuar: a Finclass está completando 5 anos e abriu uma condição que só existe uma vez no ano.Acesso vitalício à plataforma com 50% de desconto. Você entra e fica enquanto a Finclass existir. Mais de 40 experts, incluindo Thiago Nigro, Howard Marks, Gustavo Cerbasi e Bruno Perini. Carteira de investimentos recomendada que supera benchmarks do mercado e te diz o que comprar, quando comprar e quando sair.De R$ 6.000 por 12x de R$ 250, ou R$ 3.000 à vista. Vendas abrem dia 23 de abril, às 8h.Quem entrar ainda ganha 3 meses de Duo Gourmet. Numa única saída você já recupera o investimento.

Today's guest is Will Guidara, author of the New York Times Bestseller Unreasonable Hospitality and former co-owner of Eleven Madison Park, which was named the Best Restaurant in the World. He is a Co-Producer on the Emmy Award-winning series The Bear. His new book, Unreasonable Hospitality: The Field Guide comes out this month. In today's episode, Will discusses how unreasonable hospitality can turn routine service into memorable human connection. He explains why unreasonable hospitality is less about grand gestures and more about intentionality, creativity, and empowering teams to take ownership of memorable customer experiences. To close, Will shares how small acts of care can transform relationships, culture, and loyalty across financial services. (0:00) Starts (2:28) Will Guidara on Unreasonable Hospitality (8:18) Implementing this philosophy in your organization (17:11) The importance of admitting mistakes (26:15) Examples of unreasonable hospitality (37:37) Will's conferences ----- Sponsor: To learn more about CAOS, read the Fund's prospectus and important information, visit: ⁠funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As concerns mount regarding the health of the private credit ecosystem, Oaktree Capital Management co-chairman Howard Marks offers perspective–and some investing advice–when it comes to private lending. Former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb discusses Eli Lilly's deal to expand its cancer treatment pipeline as well as President Trump's executive order on therapeutic psychedelics. Plus, Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair nomination hearing is this week, and Anthropic's Mythos is at work within the NSA, despite being blacklisted by the US government.    Steve Liesman          14:36 Howard Marks             23:54 Dr. Scott Gottlieb          41:27   In this episode: Steve Liesman, @steveliesman Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Katie Kramer,  @Kramer_Katie Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today's guests are Alex Rubalcava and Paul Bricault of Amplify.LA, a pre-seed venture capital firm. In today's episode, Alex and Paul break down the opportunities and challenges AI is creating for both startups and investors. They discuss the changing economics of software, what makes an AI company defensible, where investors are finding opportunity in frontier sectors, and why speed matters more than ever in early-stage investing.  To close, they explore startup pivots and the tax advantages of QSBS. (0:00) Starts (1:27) Introducing Alex and Paul (2:02) Public software companies & AI (5:13) Amplify LA background and partnership formation (7:34) AI use cases in portfolio companies (15:08) AI's impact on the job market (30:31) AI's impact on investment opportunities at the pre-seed stage (41:02) Aerospace sector opportunities (44:32) Successful startup pivots (50:18) Liquidity in VC (55:28) QSBS impact ----- Sponsor: Alpha Architect - To learn more about CAOS, read the Fund's prospectus and important information, visit funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss CPI, the latest Howard Marks memo, and Sheinbaum does a 180 on fracking. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the evolution of the sub-investment grade credit market from its beginnings in the 1970s to its present state. He focuses on the rise of direct lending following the Global Financial Crisis, identifying the reasons for its fast growth but also the issues created by rapid capital deployment. Looking ahead, he describes the entwined fates of direct lending and private equity, with the performance of private equity portfolio companies being a key determiner of the future success of direct loans.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/whats-going-on-in-private-credit).This episode uses an AI reader.

Today's guests are Owen Lamont, a Portfolio Manager at Acadian Asset Management, and Randy Cohen, a finance and entrepreneurship professor at Harvard Business School and co-founder of PEO Partners, which is a leader in the emerging liquid Private Equity alternatives space. In today's episode, Owen Lamont and Randy Cohen begin with a deep dive into private equity, how to model it in public markets, and why investors are searching for liquid ways to access private-market-like returns. They challenge common views on concentration, market valuations, and explain how investors should think about bubbles and technological change. They also discuss whether the US stock market is Koreafying and the long-term forces that could shape the investing landscape. (0:00) Starts (0:34) Welcome Owen and Randy (5:14) Private equity overview (9:20) Liquid private equity (20:05) The US stock market is Koreafying (24:29) The IPO landscape (36:03) CAPE Ratio and AI (44:45) Best ideas investing (58:44) Deglobalization increases the benefits of diversification (1:00:36) Randy's five future fears (1:11:09) Book recommendations ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In today's episode, Van explores the evolution of the rare coin and collectables market, how grading transformed collectibles into an institutional-quality asset class, and why high-grade coins may be undervalued today. He discusses supply dynamics, the historical link between currency, gold, and collectibles, and how technology and AI are reshaping authentication and valuation. To close, Van explains why rare coins remain a compelling way to preserve wealth and build a lasting legacy. (0:00) Starts (2:25) Overview of current coin market and recent gold discoveries (16:43) Historical significance of coins and storing advice (25:34) COVID's impact on watches and sports memorabilia (31:41) Grading with AI (35:42) Identifying undervalued collectibles and selling lessons (45:15) Securitizing collectibles (49:52) Modern companies influencing the collectibles market (1:01:42) Highlights from coin shows and record-breaking sales ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Want to invest like the best? Get Mohnish's investment playbook: https://clickhubspot.com/jbhm Episode 808: In this special episode, we're pulling together the most replayed moments from our episodes with value investors like Mohnish Pabrai, Howard Marks and Guy Spier.  — Show Notes:  (0:00) Mohnish Pabrai: How to turn $10K into $1M (3:56) Howard Marks: The S&P 500 (9:29) Guy Spier: Finite and Infinite Games (14:47) Mohnish Pabrai: Circle the wagons (17:58) Howard Marks: Recommended Reading (23:03) Mohnish Pabrai: The most important thing (27:16) Howard Marks: “When the time comes to buy, you won't want to”  (31:17) Guy Spier: Don't study lottery winners — Check Out Sam's Stuff: • Hampton (joinhampton.com): My community for founders. Average member does $25m/year. Many of the guests are members. Get after it...apply: http://joinhampton.com/mfm — Check Out Shaan's Stuff: • Shaan's weekly email - https://www.shaanpuri.com  • Visit https://www.somewhere.com/mfm to hire worldwide talent like Shaan and get $500 off for being an MFM listener. Hire developers, assistants, marketing pros, sales teams and more for 80% less than US equivalents. • Mercury - Need a bank for your company? Go check out Mercury (mercury.com). Shaan uses it for all of his companies! Mercury is a financial technology company, not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column, N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust, Members FDIC • I run all my newsletters on Beehiiv and you should too + we're giving away $10k to our favorite newsletter, check it out: beehiiv.com/mfm-challenge My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by HubSpot Media // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano /

In this special episode of The Insight: Conversations, Howard Marks shares his reflections on themes from Oaktree's recent client conference, including the evolution of the credit markets, the nature of mispricings, and the importance of leadership.

In this special episode of The Insight: Conversations, Howard Marks shares his reflections on themes from Oaktree's recent client conference, including the evolution of the credit markets, the nature of mispricings, and the importance of leadership.

My guest today is Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer. In today's episode, Mike Wilson explains how a rolling recession has given way to a staggered recovery, and why he expects leadership to broaden beyond mega-cap stocks into small caps, cyclicals, and international markets. He highlights growing risks from AI disruption, private credit weakness, and the Iran conflict. To close, Mike discusses a shift beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio toward a more flexible 60/20/20 approach that includes assets like gold. (0:00) Starts (1:31) Mike Wilson on rolling recessions and rolling recoveries (5:28) Market implications of Iran conflict (9:52) Market cap weight vs. equal weight indices (15:41) Is 60/20/20 the new 60/40? (23:23) Geopolitical shocks (35:48) AI's impact and bullish on healthcare (42:03) Outlook for global economic recovery ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Register for Alpha Architect's LIVE HIDE webinar on March 26th ⁠here⁠. Want to Learn More about Alpha Architect? Visit ⁠www.funds.alphaarchitect.com⁠ Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's guests are Wes Gray, Co-CIO of Alpha Architect, and Brent Sullivan, Editor of Tax Alpha Insider, which is the only publication focused on taxable portfolio strategy. In today's episode, Brent Sullivan and Wes Gray discuss how to handle concentrated stock positions. They explore the complexities around 351 ETF exchanges, what investors need to know when participating to adhere to tax laws. To close, they examine the rise of tax-managed long-short strategies and how AI may transform tax planning and portfolio management. (0:00) Starts (1:18) Brent Sullivan's background (3:36) Handling concentrated stock positions (7:32) 351 to ETF conversions (14:49) Regulatory scrutiny & IRS enforcement (27:39) Rebalancing, tax implications and practical advisor advice (34:09) Future ETF seeding predictions (39:01) Comparing ETF seeding and portfolio consolidation strategies (45:48) Long short strategies (52:23) Brent Sullivan's book and conference ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest today is Kristin Olson, Global Head of Alternatives for Wealth at Goldman Sachs. Last year she was named one of the 100 Most Influential Women in US Finance by Barron's. In today's episode, Kristin discusses the explosive growth of the alternatives market over the past decade. She explains what has driven interest from individual investors, particularly millennials, and touches on recent volatility within software and private credit BDCs. Finally, she shares her expectations for the 2026 IPO market, the potential for renewed interest in hedge funds, and how AI is set to reshape sourcing, underwriting, and portfolio construction. (0:00) Starts (1:31) Introduction of Kristin Olson (3:16) Evolution of alternative investments (10:19) Secondary strategies (13:05) Private equity alpha and liquidity concerns (19:13) Private credit market concerns (22:29) Manager selection and due diligence (24:17) Non-traditional investments and hedge fund interest (27:17) Millennial interest in alternatives (31:40) Infrastructure and global opportunities ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Register for Alpha Architect's LIVE HIDE webinar on March 26th ⁠here⁠. Want to Learn More about Alpha Architect? Visit ⁠www.funds.alphaarchitect.com ⁠Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest today is Aswath Damodaran, a professor at NYU, where he teaches corporate finance and equity valuation. In today's episode, Professor Damodaran explains why he trimmed two Magnificent Seven stocks. He digs into AI's real impact on valuations and moats, why big software incumbents face an Innovator's Dilemma, and why the biggest risk isn't tech spending itself, but overconfidence and debt-fueled capex that could ripple beyond tech.  He also weighs in on corporate Bitcoin balance sheets, sports franchises as “trophy assets” driven by billionaire demand rather than cash flows, and the rise of prediction markets. (0:00) Starts (0:34) Professor Damodaran on the Magnificent Seven (7:26) OpenAI's growth, AI's impact on valuations, and software industries (16:07) High capex investment risks (23:10) Market timing (33:43) Trust and the rise of gold and silver (45:12) Cryptocurrencies on company balance sheets (47:42) Sports franchises (52:27) Prediction markets ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  -----Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In his latest memo – occasioned by massive changes he cites in just the 11 weeks since the last one – Howard Marks revisits the subject of AI, providing his observations on its essence and how it differs from previous technological innovations. He highlights AI's immense power, speed, and autonomy; its limitations; and its potential implications for investing. He expresses conviction that AI is far from a fad, but also that investors must view its transformational potential against an assessment of the appropriateness of the prices of AI assets.You can read the memo here (https://oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/ai-hurtles-ahead).

William Green highlights essential truths about investing, business & life that emerged from two of his favorite interviews with Howard Marks and Nima Shayegh. This episode also explores powerful lessons on resilience from Bill Miller & Epictetus. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:04:31 - How investing legend Howard Marks views the euphoria over AI 00:11:10 - What potential mistakes he warns against in this environment 00:13:23 - What essential lessons William Green has learned from Howard 00:23:00 - How Howard keeps an even keel amid extreme uncertainty 00:26:09 - Why Howard, like Einstein, doesn't think much about the future 00:34:19 - Why investing early & not “tampering” is the key to success 00:38:39 - How Nima Shayegh looks beyond numbers to find great stocks 00:44:19 - How to harness intuition & emotion in the investment process 00:49:13 - How products from Tesla & Amazon inspire “blown-awayness” 00:57:10 - What Nima learned from his famed mentor, Lou Simpson 01:04:38 - How Lou's success was built on humility 01:19:55 - How Lou & Nima inspire William's yearning for a spacious life 01:23:56 - How to handle suffering with help from Bill Miller & Epictetus Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Inquire about William Green's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Richer, Wiser, Happier Masterclass⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Howard Marks' Memos: The Complete Collection. Edward Chancellor's Devil Take the Hindmost. Allen Benello, Michael van Biema, Tobias Carlisle's ⁠Concentrated Investing.⁠ William Green's podcast interview with Howard Marks. William Green's podcast interview with Nima Shayegh. William Green's book, ⁠⁠Richer, Wiser, Happier⁠⁠. Follow William Green on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠We Study Billionaires Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes ⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠: HardBlock⁠ ⁠Human Rights Foundation⁠ ⁠Simple Mining⁠ ⁠Netsuite⁠ ⁠Masterworks⁠ ⁠Shopify⁠ ⁠Vanta⁠ ⁠Fundrise References to any third-party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investors Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Today's guest is Jim Reid, Global Head of Macro Research at Deutsche Bank. In today's episode, Jim walks through lessons from his annual report, The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing, which covers over 200 years of market data from 56 countries. He explains why cash is one of the riskiest long-term assets, how inflation quietly destroys wealth, and why valuation is the single most reliable predictor of long-term returns. He also discusses how fiat money has reshaped bonds, gold, and equities since 1971.  To close, Jim reminds us that history consistently rewards investors who buy cheap, diversify globally, and respect long-term market cycles. (0:00) Starts (1:54) Importance of real vs nominal returns (5:36) Historical returns of gold (8:28) Global investment opportunities (18:06) Bond market performance and growth's impact on asset prices (23:11) Potential impact of AI (30:34) Valuation importance (37:03) Index weighting strategies (42:43) Predictors of bond performance and equity return distribution (47:01) Historical periods of high valuations (52:45) Global banking and stock market performance (55:12) Impact of AI on economics ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Visit ⁠⁠⁠Alpha Architect's 351 Education Center⁠⁠⁠ for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's returning guests are Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisers, and D.A. Wallach, a venture capital investor for Time BioVentures. In today's episode, we unpack the recent biotech surge through the lens of Dan's recently published biotech report. We also explore China's growing biotech market, shifting IPO and VC trends, and how valuation tools like CAPE fit into today's regime. Finally, we also discuss technology's effect on productivity and corporate profits in the US, Japan's economic anomaly, home country bias, and more. (0:00) Starts (1:20) Dan's research on the biotech sector (19:10) D.A. on biotech in China (27:01) IPO landscape (31:01) Biotech VC update from D.A. (32:16) Are US stocks overvalued? (51:53) Dan's view of Japanese stocks (57:40) Global equity markets and home country bias (1:03:34) Book recommendations (1:11:55) Wrap-up and future plans ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- ⁠ ----- Sponsor: Visit ⁠⁠Alpha Architect's 351 Education Center⁠⁠ for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In today's radio show, Meb breaks down why market-cap–weighted investing may be nearing its limits after an extraordinary run in U.S. stocks. He explores CAPE ratios near historic extremes, the quiet resurgence of gold and commodities, and why equal weight, value, and global markets are suddenly back in the conversation.  To close, Meb explains how trend following and real assets can help investors navigate regime shifts. Note: this was recorded on January 29, 2026. (0:00) Starts (3:03) US stock market update (11:24) Global stock performance (18:03) The role of gold in asset allocation (27:52) Demographics of gold investors (35:47) One-fund portfolios & 351 conversions (42:07) Meb's travel plans ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Greg McKeown is the author of two New York Times bestsellers, Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less and Effortless: Make It Easier to Do What Matters Most. 200,000 people receive his weekly 1-Minute Wednesday newsletter, and he recently released The Essentialism Planner: A 90-Day Guide to Accomplishing More by Doing Less. Sponsors:Momentous high-quality creatine for cognitive and muscular support: https://livemomentous.com/Tim (Code TIM for 35% off your first subscription.)Shopify global commerce platform, providing tools to start, grow, market, and manage a retail businessHelix Sleep premium mattresses: https://helixsleep.com/timCoyote the card game​, which I co-created with Exploding Kittens: https://coyotegame.com*Show notes: https://tim.blog/2025/01/09/personal-reboot-greg-mckeown/*For show notes and past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast.For deals from sponsors of The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast-sponsorsSign up for Tim's email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at tim.blog/friday.For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts.Discover Tim's books: tim.blog/books.Follow Tim:Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss Instagram: instagram.com/timferrissYouTube: youtube.com/timferrissFacebook: facebook.com/timferriss LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timferrissPast guests on The Tim Ferriss Show include Jerry Seinfeld, Hugh Jackman, Dr. Jane Goodall, LeBron James, Kevin Hart, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Jamie Foxx, Matthew McConaughey, Esther Perel, Elizabeth Gilbert, Terry Crews, Sia, Yuval Noah Harari, Malcolm Gladwell, Madeleine Albright, Cheryl Strayed, Jim Collins, Mary Karr, Maria Popova, Sam Harris, Michael Phelps, Bob Iger, Edward Norton, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Neil Strauss, Ken Burns, Maria Sharapova, Marc Andreessen, Neil Gaiman, Neil de Grasse Tyson, Jocko Willink, Daniel Ek, Kelly Slater, Dr. Peter Attia, Seth Godin, Howard Marks, Dr. Brené Brown, Eric Schmidt, Michael Lewis, Joe Gebbia, Michael Pollan, Dr. Jordan Peterson, Vince Vaughn, Brian Koppelman, Ramit Sethi, Dax Shepard, Tony Robbins, Jim Dethmer, Dan Harris, Ray Dalio, Naval Ravikant, Vitalik Buterin, Elizabeth Lesser, Amanda Palmer, Katie Haun, Sir Richard Branson, Chuck Palahniuk, Arianna Huffington, Reid Hoffman, Bill Burr, Whitney Cummings, Rick Rubin, Dr. Vivek Murthy, Darren Aronofsky, Margaret Atwood, Mark Zuckerberg, Peter Thiel, Dr. Gabor Maté, Anne Lamott, Sarah Silverman, Dr. Andrew Huberman, and many more.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.