Market Pulse: Tom Wald

The S&P 500 was soaring on February 19, hitting a record-high close. It didn't take long for things to turn south. As President Trump follows through on previously delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico and increasing existing tariffs on China, the markets have taken a downturn. But is there a silver lining? Join Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald for a new Market Pulse podcast as he discusses the shift in sentiment and where things might go from here. Despite the recent volatility, Tom believes there could an opportunity for investors if the tariffs prove to be short-lived and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in the months ahead. President Trump's proposed tax cuts also could prove favorable for stocks, prompting Tom to stick with his year-end price target on the S&P. Hear more about how Tom's pre-year predictions for value stocks and international stocks are proving to be true and why he remains optimistic for the markets in 2025. 

The old saying goes, “Markets don't always go up because of what happens, but often because of what doesn't happen.” The past year saw markets move higher while several expectations entering 2024 did not come to fruition. A recession did not occur, the economy did not stop growing, corporate earnings did not fall flat, inflation did not climb again, the Fed did not eschew rate cuts, and the presidential election did not deteriorate into a drawn-out period of uncertainty. Today, the question is, what won't happen in 2025? Look ahead with a new Market Pulse from Tom Wald, Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO. Hear Tom break down expectations and offer his year-end forecasts for stocks and fixed income, the economy, inflation, and much more. Get insight and analysis to help you be ready to pursue your investing goals in 2025.

Funny thing about the markets — sometimes they behave in ways that correspond with the general aura of events occurring in the world around them. As fall begins, is this one of those times? Join Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald for a new Market Pulse podcast as he discusses an array of forces that could potentially impact the markets in the coming months. Topics include what's next for Federal Reserve monetary policy and the interest rate environment, current stock catalysts, the prospects for economic growth, and November's elections. Hear Tom's insight into a historical market and a historical year, and what he expects to unfold this fall.

After an eventful first half of 2024, what can investors expect over the rest of the year? In a new Market Pulse, Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald discusses his 2024 Mid-Year Market Outlook and provides in-depth analysis of the U.S. economy, equity and fixed income markets, and international stocks. Tom offers his year-end forecasts for GDP growth, the S&P 500®, and interest rates. He compares the positioning of growth and value stocks in the current environment, talks about why increasing equity allocations to international developed stocks might make sense, and looks ahead to the November elections. 

The most recent bear market appears to have come and gone, and stocks have rallied to reach all-time highs amid concerns about a possible recession, inflation, corporate earnings, interest rates, and election year uncertainties. In fact, the S&P 500® has seen an upside move of 50% since October of 2022, when the bear bottomed out. Are the market's current tailwinds enough to push stocks even higher, or is its resilience already reflected in current prices, making now the time to expect a pull back? Tom Wald, Chief Investment Officer of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., discusses in a new Market Pulse his outlook for stocks following their recent climb to record levels. Hear Tom assess how well positioned stocks are and why he sees corporate earnings growth as their most important catalyst going forward. 

It's understandable if some investors feel these days a little like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football, only to see Lucy pull it away at the last second to send Charlie flying. As inflation reports continue to raise eyebrows and market volatility increases, the Federal Reserve and the economy may keep everyone guessing a bit longer. Tom Wald, Chief Investment Officer of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., uses his latest Market Pulse to discuss recent changes to his interest rate forecasts, inflation trends, and the overall economy, as well as current opportunities in equity and fixed income markets. Investors might be trying to predict when, or even if, the Fed will act. Would they be better served focusing elsewhere, such as on some high-quality, investment-grade bonds offering rates that are near multiyear highs? Hear Tom's thoughts on these opportunities and more. 

Things are not all rainbows and puppy dogs these days, but growth for the U.S. economy and corporate earnings has looked stronger early in 2024 than most expected. And with these surprising numbers comes revised expectations. In his newest Market Pulse podcast, Tom Wald, CFA® and CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., updates his yearly forecast for stocks and the economy. Tom discusses what he expects for gross domestic product growth this year, and why he no longer believes a recession is likely. He also shares his new year-end price target on the S&P 500® and his thoughts on portfolio positioning and interest rates. 

How will markets respond to a potential recession in 2024? Where should fixed income investors be in the year ahead? What catalysts may push U.S. stocks to record highs, and where should we expect interest rates to be in a year. Look forward to 2024 with the latest Market Pulse podcast with Tom Wald, CFA® and CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc. Hear Tom discuss his recently published Transamerica 2024 Market Outlook and his thoughts on what investors need to know about the U.S. economy, interest rates, fixed income, U.S. stocks, and international equities in the new year. Tom also looks at the 2024 elections and what their outcomes may mean for tax and economic policy.

In recent weeks, long-term interest rates surged before reversing course. Economic data was strong, then slowed. Stocks corrected and then rallied. How do investors make sense of all this? In his latest Market Pulse podcast, Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald explores the crosscurrents swirling in the current market environment and the forces influencing them. Those include the Federal Reserve's recent decision to leave interest rates unchanged, the immediate future for economic growth, and the track inflation is on. Hear Tom's take on what he sees unfolding next in the markets and economy, and where he believes opportunities remain for investors in the 2024 and beyond. 

What should investors make of the recent market sell-off? What has the sharp increase in long-term interest rates meant for stocks and bonds? Has the inverted yield curve finally begun to dis-invert? Finally, could there be a meaningful difference between the Federal Reserve's expectations for future interest rates and their actual path? In a new Market Pulse, Tom Wald, Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., Chief Investment Officer, discusses the market impacts and paths forward following a volatile month of rising interest rates. Tom breaks down recent market activity and what he believes investors should focus on as we enter the final quarter of 2023. 

Halfway through 2023, is it “game on” for investors? Last year's brutal bear market compelled many to get out of the game, and we are not out of the woods yet. But what happened over the past six months has left much for investors to consider. And the message the current market environment may be sending to those who went to the sideline in 2022 is less about whether long-term opportunities are out there, and more about what the best ones might be. In his latest Market Pulse, Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald discusses his 2023 Mid-Year Market Outlook and looks forward to the second half of the year. Tom previews what he sees unfolding in the coming months with the economy, interest rates, credit markets, U.S. and international stocks, and how each may impact investors.  3005266   07/23

At the conclusion of its May meeting, the Federal Reserve did not clearly indicate if it plans to raise interest rates again in June or pause and potentially conclude the current tightening cycle. Or did it? Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., shares his perspective on what actions the Fed may or may not take next in a new Market Pulse. Tom examines rationale the Fed could use as it considers ending rate hikes, and he looks at whether recent developments have made a recession by year-end more likely to occur. And Tom discusses opportunities and risks awaiting stock and fixed income investors, as well.  2895554  05/23

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates again in March was expected. The collapse of two respected banks was not. These are interesting times indeed for investors, and questions abound. Has a crisis been averted? Is this another 2008 scenario? Will a recession begin by year-end? How severe would a recession be if one occurs? And what can investors expect next from the Fed, as well as the stock and bond markets? Transamerica Asset Management (TAM) CIO Tom Wald discusses the background and market impacts of recent turmoil in banking, as well as the future path of interest rates after the Federal Reserve's March meeting. Tom breaks down each question in clear and simple terms to provide investors with important knowledge they need today.  2822499  04/23

The market landscape changed over the first two months of 2023, and investor expectations followed. Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., breaks down everything that transpired during the past two months in a new Market Pulse, looking closely at the primary areas of investor concern and what it means for stock and bond markets going forward. Is recession no longer a foregone conclusion? How stubborn can we expect inflation to be? How likely — or more to the point, unlikely — is the Federal Reserve to pivot on interest rates in the second half of the year? Tom explores these questions and more as stock and fixed income investors assess a changing landscape.  2744842   0223

Good riddance, 2022. That's probably how many investors feel about the end to a year that saw stocks and bonds suffer meaningful losses. And as they look forward to 2023, investors are probably asking if we've “outrun the bear,” so to speak, and whether they should stay on their current course. Good questions. In a new Market Pulse, Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., discusses his recently published “Transamerica 2023 Market Outlook,” and breaks down the major opportunities, risks, and issues to follow in the months ahead. Tom offers his keen insight into the U.S. economy, U.S. and international stocks, interest rates, and credit markets to set the stage for what investors are certainly hoping will be a better year.   2643688  1222

There have been few places for stock and bond investors to hide over the past 12 months, but is there reason to believe markets may react more favorably in 2023? In his latest Market Pulse, Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., explores what wary investors should be watching as the calendar turns, including interest rates, inflation, and the potential impact of recent midterm elections. Markets are the great discounter of future events, and history has shown us that when investor concerns are resolved and negative cycles conclude, things can change for the better. Tom applies lessons from market history to examine what 2023 may hold in store. 2584049   12/22

A September sell-off sent stocks stumbling to their lowest point since November 2020, and longer-term bond yields, as measured by the 10-year Treasury rate, reached their highest levels since March of 2008. There's no doubt it has been a rough year for weary investors who, by now, must be asking, what's next? In his new Market Pulse, Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald examines the four main culprits behind the bear market — inflation, interest rates, recession risk, and corporate earnings. Tom also remembers historical ghosts that have scared the markets in past Octobers, and he looks ahead to the November elections and their potential impacts.   2458131  1022

A few rough months for the stock and credit markets have turned into a summer rebound. What's driving the turnaround, and can investors expect it to continue? And should concerns about inflation, recession, and a bear market give way to a renewed sense of optimism? In a new “Market Pulse,” Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald discusses the current landscape by looking at all the good news unfolding as well as the bad, which, in some ways, may not have been as bad as some expected it to be.  238277 0822

U.S. stocks declined into bear market territory, inflation reached heights not seen in 40 years, and the possibility of a recession looms large. The first half of 2022 was certainly eventful. Can investors expect things to change anytime soon? Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., looks ahead to the second half of the year in a new “Market Pulse.” Hear Tom recap his recently published Transamerica 2022 Mid-Year Market Outlook and discuss what's next for the markets, the economy, and more.   2286037  07/22

It's the question on the minds of every investor these days, but we may need to look at it a couple of ways. First, based on how the economy contracted in Q1 2022, are we on an immediate path toward recession occurring in the next few months? And second, will today's rising interest rates and rising inflation combine to eventually drive us into recession by the end of 2023? In a new “Market Pulse,” Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., takes on each question, offering his insight and explaining what investors need to remember during these challenging times.   2199238   05/22

War, inflation, higher interest rates, slower short-term economic growth, and recession fears have taken a toll on the markets in recent weeks. Where does the path forward lie? In a new “Market Pulse,” Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., discusses recent developments and what investors need to know. Should they brace for more volatility? Will inflation begin to cool anytime soon? And is the U.S. economy at serious risk of falling into a recession? Tom covers each topic, and much more.   2093535   03/22

Are we entering a time of transition? One with changes in market leadership among asset classes or individual market segments? Changes in time horizons? Changes in what investors worry about? At times like these, investors seek clarity among contrasting perspectives as they try to interpret the data that's emerging today. In a new “Market Pulse,” Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., discusses rising inflation and interest rates, COVID 19, the case for economic growth and corporate earnings, all within the context of netting out the good and not-so-good news from a volatile market.   2035703    0222

There is no shortage of matters for investors to fret over as the new year begins. COVID-19 variants and inflation are formidable market opponents, but prospects for economic growth are apparent, as well, and how the markets respond in the coming months will be fascinating to see. In his new Market Pulse, Tom Wald, CIO for Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., provides his market outlook for 2022 by looking closely at the economy, stocks, interest rates and Fed policy, income strategies, international stocks, and potential wild cards. Tom offers a thorough review of the past year and preview of the year ahead, covering just about everything investors need to know.  1934421   12/22

As major stock indexes continue to reach record highs, investors also see a series market concerns that include COVID-19, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, slowing economic growth, and dysfunction in Washington. These concerns and their potential impacts have left many asking — why are stocks continuing to rise? In his new “Market Pulse,” Transamerica Asset Management CIO Tom Wald looks closely at each topic to provide investors with insight they may find very interesting. 1912535    11/21

We've entered October, a historically scary time for investors. A look back reveals some frightening ghosts have appeared at this time of year, including a few unforgettable market crashes. Should investors really fear October, or is opportunity about to jump out from behind that door? In his latest “Market Pulse,” Tom Wald, Transamerica Asset Management CIO, discusses events past and present that shape where the economy and markets are today. And there is a lot to discuss — volatility, interest rates, inflation, economic growth, and the happenings in Washington. Combined, these events may compel some investors to look away, but as Halloween nears, how much is there to truly be afraid of?

When it comes to COVID-19, things can change fast. The recent surge in cases due to the Delta variant has changed the conversation from early in the summer of 2021, when occurrences were at their lowest since the pandemic's early days. This abrupt increase figures to impact the markets and the economy — the question is how? In his new “Market Pulse,” Transamerica Asset Management CIO Tom Wald offers his opinions, diving deep into what the Delta variant could mean for stocks, the economy, Fed policy, interest rates, and more. 

We're midway through the year, and there is a lot going on. In his new podcast, Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., explores the economy, stocks, the credit markets, interest rates, inflation, and other topics that are occupying investors as we look forward to the rest of 2021. Tom discusses the Transamerica 2021 Mid-Year Market Outlook he recently completed. He also looks at the true psychology of the markets right now and whether it represents a net opportunity or risk to investors, as well as the impact of COVID-19 vaccines on case trends, the economy, and the markets. 

Inflation has reemerged from the non-threatening rates of the past decade to become a gripping development with which markets must contend. How surprised should we have been when April’s CPI made its highest monthly jump since 2013? Are we looking at a substantial change in the long-term trend, or will current rates be transitory in nature and return to their previously benign levels in the not-too-distant future? Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald takes a close look at the inflation data in his latest podcast and considers what it could mean for investors now and in the long term. 

How things have changed since 2021 began. Many of the biggest concerns that occupied investors when the calendar turned are no longer the worries they were, and they are now becoming market catalysts. Yet with these catalysts a new wall of worry has emerged, giving investors plenty to think about as they weigh opportunities ahead. In his new podcast, Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald discusses the prospects of rising inflation, interest rates, infrastructure spending, and other factors that could influence the economy and markets, and what investors should know as they consider their next moves. Given where we were a year ago, how should investors feel about the risks they face today?

The internal battle being fought within the markets right now presents investors with inherent contradictions. On the one hand, economic and corporate earnings growth is exceeding previous expectations, which the markets should like. However, the resulting rise in long-term interest rates and subsequent risk of modestly higher inflation is something they are not cheering. These developments were not on the landscape when the calendar turned to 2021, but they now occupy the attention of investors far and wide. In his new podcast, Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald summarizes what’s unfolding and breaks down the moving targets to follow.

In the blink of an eye, a virtual army of Millennial investors organized on social media and effected a short squeeze for the ages that left some of the world’s most prominent hedge funds reeling. As the dust from this noteworthy event continues to settle, it’s fair to ask whether it represents just a blip on the radar or if it’s a new paradigm for investing that’s here for good? And what impact does it figure to have on the markets as 2021 unfolds? Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., examines these questions and many others in his latest podcast.

We have lived through real history in 2020, and it’s finally time to look forward to a much-anticipated 2021. In his new podcast, Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., summarizes his new engaging and extensive paper, “Where We Stand: The Transamerica 2021 Market Outlook.” He examines the most memorable aspects of the year that was and what investors should know about the markets and economies as the calendar turns. Will 2021 begin like 2020 ended, and what keys factors should investors monitor as the new year unfolds? As Tom says, we could be witnessing the “storm before the calm.” Listen and learn what that may mean for your portfolio.

These are historic times, to say the least. Positive developments in the search for a COVID-19 vaccine combined with the climax and fallout of a remarkable election have converged the political and investment worlds in ways few have ever seen. What can investors expect next? Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., explores in his new podcast the current investing climate and what looms ahead. There have been some recent bumps on the road, but how much should we like the road we’re on? Tom considers that question and much more.

We have entered uncharted waters. COVID-19 and the search for a vaccine, the pace of economic recovery in the U.S. and beyond, the final stretch of the presidential and congressional elections – rarely have so many factors come together at once to create such an atmosphere. Investors need to understand what’s unfolding right now and be ready for opportunities that may present themselves. In his latest podcast, Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., discusses how medical, political, and economic news could lead to an eventful October, a month already known for its historic market activity. Tom covers what he believes could have the biggest impacts and prepares investors to potentially take advantage of possible price fluctuations to come.

Several developing situations demand our attention right now. There’s COVID-19 and the search for a vaccine, the economy, corporate earnings, interest rates and Fed policy, fiscal stimulus, and, of course, a looming election. Determining whether the markets continue to move forward or reverse direction requires taking a step back and looking at the big picture. In his new podcast, Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., discusses a potential “Back to the Future” market path unfolding over the next year or two alongside a more friendly investment environment and recoveries in the economy and corporate earnings. Tom provides his thoughts on what awaits investors in the coming months amid a very dynamic investing landscape.

The world has changed over the past six months in ways no one could have expected, yet market opportunities remain alive and well for anyone who’s looking. Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., sums up the Transamerica 2020 Mid-Year Market Outlook in his latest podcast. He looks at where he believes the economy and markets are headed after an eventful opening half of the year, how investors should be feeling, and the ongoing risks COVID-19 and other factors pose. With the pandemic surging and elections looming, these are interesting times, indeed. Hear Tom tell investors what they need to know as the second half of 2020 begins.

We’re seeing catastrophic economic numbers caused by the COVID-19 pandemic unveiled on a regular basis these days, yet stocks have enjoyed a remarkably strong run since hitting lows back on March 23. Should we be surprised by this, and what can we expect next? Join Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., as he talks about the four catalysts he believes will continue to drive markets in the coming weeks. Tom also shares his perspective on the events that have propelled historic market selloffs over the past 100 years, and how they compare to today’s happenings.

As economic struggles continue to mount amid the COVID-19 crisis, Congress has passed the CARES Act, a $2.2 trillion package aimed at providing relief for everyone from individuals to major corporations. It’s the largest stimulus legislation ever, and it’s broken down into several areas, all of which demand a great amount of immediate attention in the current environment. In his new podcast, Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., looks at the most important part of the CARES Act, its impacts, and whether investors should expect more stimulus from the government later in the year.

COVID-19 has shocked the world, shutting down economies and triggering massive market selloffs rarely seen during any previous crisis. As the calendar turns to the second quarter of 2020 and many brace for economic contraction of historic proportions, where do we go from here? How long will this last, and how bad could Q2 be? In his new podcast, Tom Wald, CIO of Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., discusses when he thinks the worst of the crisis will end and when we may expect to see the economy and markets start to recover. He looks at the implementation of monetary and fiscal policy, he details specific metrics to monitor, and he offers plenty of additional insight investors should hear about the current situation.

Rarely have presidential campaigns enjoyed the kind of turnaround Joe Biden’s did in the days leading up to Super Tuesday. How will the markets react as investors weigh Biden’s continued efforts? Are there lessons from history we should keep in mind while this election unfolds? And what impact can the coronavirus have on performance and portfolios in the months ahead? Tom Wald, Transamerica Asset Management, Inc. CIO, answers these questions and more in his latest podcast.

Dramatic volatility and fierce selloffs continue to challenge markets, leaving nervous investors wondering what they should do. How will the coronavirus impact the economy and corporate earnings? What should stock owners, or anyone considering buying stocks, remember in the current environment? Transamerica Asset Management, Inc. CIO Tom Wald answers these questions and many others in “Historic Market Volatility.”

The unique characteristics defining the 2020 presidential election are far from ordinary, and they have the potential to impact markets and investor portfolios in unusual ways. “From Now Until November: The Election and the Markets” is a series that will dive into what precisely makes the 2020 election so different from its predecessors. Join Transamerica Asset Management, Inc. CIO Tom Wald as he explores its many twists and turns in the months to come, and what they may mean for your investments.