Today we share an episode of The Real Estate Breakthrough Show with Christina Suter where Cody and Brian are guests. Listen in as they share key insights about Blue Oak investments, the secrets to their success, and why it's important to always remember that in this industry, it's all about serving the people. Cody LaughlinCody Laughlin is a co-founder and Managing Partner of Blue Oak Capital. He is the director of Acquisitions and Chief Investment Officer and oversees the company's acquisitions and business development. Cody has eleven years of experience in alternative investments. Prior to Blue Oak Capital, Cody was the founder and President of Laughlin Investment Group, LLC, a privately held real estate investment group where he managed the company's acquisition portfolio of residential real estate. In addition to his entrepreneurial ventures, Cody worked as a Registered Nurse in the Texas Medical Center. Brian AlfaroPrior to joining Blue Oak Capital, Brian managed an investment company specializing in the residential asset class. Passionate about helping others succeed, he sources and brokers investment transactions for investors. Brian's extensive background in operations, marketing, and brand development in high-volume hospitality concepts plays a role in ensuring investing partners receive a first-class experience. For today's episode we will cover: [ 00:00 - 12:11 ] About Blue Oak CapitalReal estate can challenge you as a human beingOur job is to be problem solversWhy Blue Oak didn't fail[ 12:11 - 22:42 ] You can't panic It starts with a good property management teamYou really make your money on the renewalsBlue Oak's investment strategy[ 22:42 - 34:39 ] Repositioning a propertyRemembering that you serve peopleTaking care of your investorsGood companies and investor relations Tweetable Quotes: Connect With Guest:Website: https://blueoakinvests.com/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/blueoakcapital/?hl=enFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/blueoakcapital/Youtube:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3-13HguhVYtvZTHXoeS-ng/featuredLinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/company/blueoakinvests/ Connect with Cody: Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cody-laughlin-35067660/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/codyblueoakcapital/?hl=en SUBSCRIBE & LEAVE A 5-START REVIEW as we create a lifetime of wealth and financial freedom through multifamily investing! Invest with us! Check out Blue Oak Investments Invest with us! Check out Blue Oak Investments: https://blueoakinvests.com/ Cody LaughlinLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cody-laughlin-35067660/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/cody.laughlin.543 Instagram: https://www.inst
While shifts in stock and bond correlation have increased the volatility of a 60:40 portfolio, investors may still find some balance in diversification. Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief Investment Officer for Wealth Management Lisa Shalett discuss.-----Transcript-----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley Research.Lisa Shalett: And I'm Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.Andrew Sheets: And on part two of this special episode, we'll be continuing our discussion of the foundational 60/40 portfolio. It's Wednesday, August 17th at 4:00 PM in London.Lisa Shalett: And it's 11:00 AM here in New York.Andrew Sheets: So Lisa, I know the positive correlations won't lift the 60:40 portfolio's volatility too much, but would you say that investors have been inclined to accept more equity risk in recent decades because the cushioning effect of fixed income and this idea that if anything goes wrong, the Fed will kind of ride to the rescue and support markets?Lisa Shalett: Yes I do. And I think, you know, part of the issue has been that we've been not only in a regime of falling interest rates, which has supported overall equity valuations, but we've lived in a period of suppressed volatility with regard to the direction of policy. We've been in this forward guidance regime, if you will, from the central bank where not only was the central bank holding down the cost of capital but they were telegraphing the speed and order of magnitude and pace of things which took a huge amount of volatility out of the market for both stocks and bonds and permitted risk taking. I mean, my goodness, you know, when was the last time in history that we had such negative “term premiums” in the pricing of bonds? That was a part of this function of this idea that the Fed's going to tell us exactly what they're going to do and there's this Fed put, and any time something unexpected happens, they will, you know, “come to save the day.”And so I think we're at the beginning, we're literally in my humble opinion in the first or second innings of the market fundamentally wrapping their heads around what it means to no longer be in a forward guidance regime. Where the central bank, in their ambitions to normalize policy to crush inflation have to inherently be more data dependent and data dependency is inherently more volatile. And so I do think over time we are going to see these equity risk premiums, which, you know, as we've discussed earlier, had gotten quite compressed, widen back out to something that is more normal for the amount of risk that equities genuinely represent.Andrew Sheets: And Lisa, I think that's such a great point about the predictability of monetary policy cause you're right, you know, that's another interesting similarity with the period prior to 2000. That period was a period of a much more unpredictable Fed between, you know, 1920 and the year 2000 where in more recent years, the Fed has become very predictable. So, that's another good thing that we should, as investors, think about is does that shifting predictability of Fed action, does the rising uncertainty that the Fed is facing, you know, is that also an important driver of this stock bond correlation. So boiling it all down, how are you talking about all of this to clients to help them reposition portfolios to navigate risk and potential return?Lisa Shalett: I think at the end of the day you know, the most important thing that we're sitting with clients and talking about is that these fundamental building blocks of asset allocations, stocks and bonds, while they may correlate to one another differently, while they're each inherent volatilities may move up and therefore the volatility of that 60:40 portfolio may readjust some, the reality is, is that they're still very important building blocks that play different roles in the portfolio that are both still required. So, you know, your stocks are still going to be that asset class that allows you to capture unexpected growth in the economy and in the overall profit stream, while fixed income and your rates market is still going to be that opportunity to cushion, if you will, disappointments in growth.As we know that they, come over the course of a cycle. In that regard, as we look to this repricing of interest rates and what it may mean, we are encouraging our clients to look much more deliberately, actively, at being diversified across styles, across factors, across market capitalizations because these dynamics are changing. If we look back over the last 13 years, because the narrative around falling interest rates and Fed forward guidance and low volatility, and these correlations, these very stable correlations, and everything's going our way, you didn't need to look very far beyond just owning that passive S&P 500 index. Now, as things begin to normalize and get more inherently volatile and idiosyncratic, we look at where there may be, “value” in the traditional factor sense, to look down the market capitalization scheme to smaller and mid-cap stocks, to look at more cyclical oriented stocks that may be responding to this higher interest rate, higher inflation regimes. And so we're encouraging maximum levels of diversification within these building blocks and very active management of riskAndrew Sheets: Lisa as always, thanks for taking the time to talk.Lisa Shalett: It's my pleasure, Andrew.Andrew Sheets: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people find the show.
In the current era of tighter Fed policy, the status quo of stock and bond correlation has changed, calling the foundational 60:40 portfolio into question. Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief Investment Officer for Wealth Management Lisa Shalett discuss.-----Transcript-----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley Research.Lisa Shalett: And I'm Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.Andrew Sheets: And on part one of this special episode, we'll be discussing the foundational 60/40 stock bond portfolio. In an era of tighter policy, is a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds fundamentally broken? It's Tuesday, August 16th at 4:00 PM in London.Lisa Shalett: And it's 11:00 AM here in New York.Andrew Sheets: Lisa, it's so good to talk to you again. So, you know, one of the most important, fundamental building blocks of asset allocation is the so-called 60/40 portfolio, a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, and both of us have been writing about that this year because this strategy of having diversified stocks and bonds worked unusually well for the 40 years up through 2021, but this year has suffered a real historical reversal, seeing some of the worst returns for this diversified balanced strategy we've seen in 40 or 50 years. So when you think about these dynamics, when you think about the historically poor performance, can you give some context of what's been happening here and what our listeners should make of it?Lisa Shalett: Sure, absolutely. I think as we know, we've gone through this 13-year period through the pandemic when the narrative was very much dominated by Federal Reserve intervention repression and keeping down of interest rates and in fact, falling interest rates, that produced financial market returns both for stocks and for bonds. But as we know, entering 2022, that narrative that was so concentrated on the direction of interest rates, you know, faced a major pivot from the Federal Reserve itself who, as we know, was facing an inflation fight which meant that they were going to have to move the federal funds rate up pretty significantly. The implication of that was pretty devastating for both stocks and bonds, that combined 60/40 portfolio delivered aggregate returns of about -12 to -13% on average that's the performance for that diversified portfolio benchmark in over 50 years. But again, we have to remember a lot of that performance was coming from a starting point where both stocks and bonds had been extraordinarily valued with those valuations premised on a continuation of Federal Reserve policy that unfortunately because of inflation has had to changeAndrew Sheets: Lisa I'm so glad you mentioned that starting point of valuations because, you know, it matters, I think in two really important ways. One, it helps us maybe understand better what's been happening this year, but also, you know, usually when prices fall, and this year prices are still down considerably from where they started, that means better valuations and better returns going forward. So, you know, could you just give a little bit more context of you and your team run a lot of estimates for what asset classes can return potentially over longer horizons. You know, maybe what that looked like for a 60/40 portfolio at the start of this year, when, as you mentioned, both stocks and bonds were pretty richly valued, and then how that's been developing as the year has progressed.Lisa Shalett: Yeah. So, fantastic question. And, you know, we came into 2022 quite frankly, on a strategic horizon given where valuations were, not very excited about either asset class. You know for bonds, we were looking for maybe 0-2% or somewhat below coupon, because of the pressures of repricing on bonds. And for stocks we were looking for something in the, you know, 4-5% range, which was significantly below what historical long term capital market assumptions, you know, might expect for many institutional clients who benchmark themselves off of a 7.5 or 8% return ambition. So, when we entered this bear market, this kind of ferocious selloff, as we noted, from January through June, there were many folks who were hoping that perhaps valuations and forward looking expectations of returns were improving. Importantly, however, what we've seen is that hasn't been the case because what you have to do when you're thinking about valuation is you've gotta look at stock valuations relative to the level of interest rates.And we're now in a scenario where, you know, the terminal value for the US economy may be something very different than it was and that means somewhat lower valuations. So, you know, if I had to put a number on it right now, my expectations for equity returns going forward from the current mark to market is really no better, unfortunately, than perhaps where it was in January. For bonds on the other hand, we've made some progress. And so to me, you know, I, I could see our estimates on bonds being a little bit more constructive than where they were with the 10 year yield somewhere in the, in the 2.8 zip code. Lisa Shalett: So Andrew we've talked about the stock bond correlation as keying off the direction of inflation and the path of Fed policy. With both of those changing, do you view a positive correlation as likely over the longer term?Andrew Sheets: Yeah. Thanks. Thanks, Lisa. So I think this issue of stock bond correlation is, is really interesting and, and gets a lot of attention for, for good reasons. And then, I think, can also be a little bit misinterpreted. So the reason the correlation is important is, I think, probably obvious to the listeners, if you have a diversified portfolio of assets, you want them to kind of not all move together. That's the whole point of diversification. You want your assets to go up and down on different days, and that smooths the overall return. Now, you know, interestingly for a lot of the last hundred years, the stock bond correlation was positive. Stock and bond prices tended to move in the same direction, which means stock and bond yields tended to move in the opposite direction. So higher yields meant lower stock prices.That was the history for a lot of time, kind of prior to 2000. The reason I think that happened was because inflation was the dominant fear of markets over a lot of that period and inflation was very volatile. And so higher yields generally meant a worsening inflation backdrop, which was bad for stock prices and lower bond yields tended to mean inflation was getting back under control, and that was better for stocks. Now, what's interesting is in the 90s that dynamic really kinda started to change. And after 2000, after the dot-com bubble burst, the fear really turned to growth. The market became a lot less concerned about inflationary pressure, but a lot more concerned about growth. And that meant that when yields were rising, the market saw that as growth being better. So the thing they were afraid of was getting less bad, which was better for stock prices.So, you had this really interesting flip of correlation where once inflation was tamed really in the 90s, the markets started to see higher yields, meaning better growth rather than higher inflation, which meant that stocks and bonds tend to have a negative correlation. Their prices tend to more often move in opposite directions. And as you alluded to, that really created this golden age of stock bond diversification that created this golden age of 60/40 portfolios, because both of these assets were delivering positive returns, but they were delivering them at different times. And so offsetting and cushioning each other's price movements, which is really, you know, the ideal of anybody trying to invest for the long run and, and diversify a portfolio. So that's changed this year. It's been very apparent this year that both stock and bond prices have gone down and gone down together in a pretty significant way.But I think as we look forward, we also shouldn't overstate this change. You know, I think your point, Lisa, about just how expensive things were at the start of the year is really important. You know, anytime an asset is very expensive, it is much more vulnerable to dropping and given that both stocks and bonds were both expensive at the same time and both very expensive at the same time, you know, their dropping together I think was, was also a function of their valuation as much of anything else. So, I think going forward, it makes sense to assume kind of a middle ground. You know, I don't think we are going to have the same negative correlation we enjoyed over the last, you know, 15 years, but I also don't think we're going back to the very positive correlations we had, you know, kind of prior to the 1990s.And so, you know, I think for investors, we should think about that as less diversification they get to enjoy in a portfolio, but that doesn't mean it's no diversification. And given that bonds are so much less volatile than stocks, you know, bonds might have a third of the volatility of the stock market, if we look at kind of volatility over the last five years. That still is some pretty useful ballast in a portfolio. That still means a large chunk of the portfolio is moving around a lot less and helping to stabilize the overall asset pool. Andrew Sheets: Thanks for listening. Tomorrow I'll be continuing my conversation with Lisa Shalett, and as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people find the show.
In this Topical Tuesday's episode, I spoke with Josh Satin, who formerly spent 4 years as a professional baseball player in the New York Mets organization before retiring and entering the world of commercial real estate. Now, he serves as the Chief Investment Officer for Gelt, Inc., who is a real estate investment firm with a portfolio valued at over $2B. Be sure to tune in if you're interested in learning about: Who the most important people are to build relationships with to create maximum deal flow The best skills and tactics for building and nurturing relationships with brokers Why Gelt has been doubling down on quality assets and quality markets What he things the future looks like for value-add multifamily and why he believes Gelt will be in it for the long term To your success, Tyler Lyons Resources mentioned in the podcast: 1. Gelt Inc. 2. Josh Satin: Email Twitter 3. Keith Wasserman (Gelt Partner): Twitter Interested in investing in ATMs? Check out our webinar. Please note that investing in private placement securities entails a high degree of risk, including illiquidity of the investment and loss of principal. Please refer to the subscription agreement for a discussion of risk factors. Tired of scrambling for capital? Check out our new FREE webinar - How to Ensure You Never Scramble for Capital Again (The 3 Capital-Raising Secrets). Click Here to register. CFC Podcast Facebook Group
Check out the Cognitive Dissidents Pod https://cognitive-investments.captivate.fm/listen (here)!! Subscribe before it's too late!! How do inflationary cycles work? Are we in a tech innovation environment or are we just iterating on the same old concepts? Also, what constitutes "old"? Jordi Visser joins us this week to discuss these questions and much, much more (yes, we mean China). Jordi Visser is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC, a market neutral pioneer of the asset management industry. At Weiss, Jordi oversees the portfolio managers and is responsible for the overall risk aggregation. Additionally, he is the architect and a portfolio manager for the Weiss Alternative Multi-Strategy Fund (Ticker: WEISX). Weiss Morning Seeds: https://hubs.la/Q01jhfjY0 (https://hubs.la/Q01jhfjY0) Weiss Insights: https://hubs.la/Q01jhftd0 (https://hubs.la/Q01jhftd0) Weiss Podcast Page: https://hubs.la/Q01jhgds0 (https://hubs.la/Q01jhgds0) Timestamps: 2:20-14:42 – Inflation/Deflation 14:42-35:50 – Tech/longevity 35:50-45:38 – mRNA 45:38-1:03:30 – Energy 1:03:00 – end – China
Small businesses are the backbone of any economy. When they thrive, the economy grows, opportunity and jobs are created, and a culture of bottom-up innovation takes hold. In Pakistan, MSMEs face a tough time getting access to growth capital. Karandaaz Capital is changing this and this episode dives deep into how this change is happening. Uzair talks to Navid Goraya, who is Chief Investment Officer at Karandaaz Capital. He has over 25 years of global experience in asset management, investment strategy, product development and corporate finance. Before joining Karandaaz as the CIO, he was leading a Strategic Advisory Firm, White Oak Advisors Inc, in New York where he was involved in serving private equity funds, family offices, banks and insurance companies in support of global investments in the US, Middle East, South East Asia and South Asia. Reading recommendations: - People, Power, and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent by Joseph Stiglitz - How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need by Bill Gates
On this episode, we're discussing macro economic & political trends that are currently crippling the crypto markets as a whole. We're also discussing today's new CPI data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Also, can institutional adoption via clear regulation provide a massive boom in the crypto markets soon? and can we see crypto recover in September?Guest: Mark Yusko, Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital ManagementMorgan Creek-Exos Risk-Managed Bitcoin Fund ➜ http://bit.ly/MCbitcoinfund
“China's ability to grow in unprecedented fashion came because they had really cheap labor, and wealthy countries around the world were very happy to take advantage of that labor. Those two things are no longer true,” said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. From the state of the great technological decoupling to China's zero-COVID policy, the relationship between the US and China remains both critically important and deeply fraught. In this episode of “Living Beyond Borders,” a special podcast produced in partnership between GZERO and Citi Private Bank, we're assessing where the two nations stand today, and what some recent developments like a Chinese banking crisis, knock on effects of Russia's war in Ukraine, and a renewed debate over tariffs mean for the world and for your money. This episode, moderated by Shari Friedman, Eurasia Group's Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, features Ian Bremmer in conversation with David Bailin, Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Investments at Citi Global Wealth.
Joining us today to discuss the opportunities in self-storage during the current market conditions is Kris Benson. He is the Chief Investment Officer of Reliant Real Estate Management, a company that offers institutional quality self-storage investments to accredited investors. He digs deep into why self-storage is still an incredible asset to invest in and offers strategies on how to squeeze NOI out of properties. He also touches on what it takes to be a sophisticated operator in the space, the work they are doing in boat and RV storage, and the importance of return on equity. [00:01 - 12:35] Self Storage Investing Insights Kris talks about his background as an investor To make money in real estate, do it at a scale He introduces Reliant Real Estate Management and the work they do They are seeing significant compression in cap rates in the market There is still a lot of capital chasing deals in the self-storage space, with institutional investors looking for a safe and profitable investment Investors who are not well capitalized and not-so sophisticated operators may be potentially setting themselves up for failure What makes a sophisticated operator Leveraging different technologies such as touchless leasing One of the most important things moving forward for increasing NOI: dynamic pricing algorithm Comparing the data and software advancements for multifamily and self-storage [12:36 - 19:12] Business Growth and Return on Equity Kris breaks down the boat and RV storage facilities they own and what they're doing in development When there's equity in the deals, is it time to liquidate or refinance? [19:13 - 20:28] Closing Segment Reach out to Kris! Links Below Final Words Tweetable Quotes “There's a lot of people in the space who are not sophisticated operators and when things get tight, again, it probably comes down to bad debt or too aggressive on the debt side.” - Kris Benson “This one is probably going to be most important moving forward is dynamic pricing algorithm where you're matching prices day to day based on occupancy.” - Kris Benson “I'm a huge believer that in real estate, anything you buy today, in 20 years is going to be a good deal.” - Kris Benson ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Connect with Kris through the Reliant Real Estate Management website and KrisBenson.com. Connect with me: I love helping others place money outside of traditional investments that both diversify a strategy and provide solid predictable returns. Facebook LinkedIn Like, subscribe, and leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or whatever platform you listen on. Thank you for tuning in! Email me → firstname.lastname@example.org Want to read the full show notes of the episode? Check it out below: [00:00:00] Kris Benson: What I would say you should measure us on is, well, what happened to NOI during that period? Did we grow that? And that's what you can hold us accountable to, but cap rates and valuations, who knows, that's all made up, right? So we can't control that. But what we can control is if we can squeeze NOI out of something, we're doing our job and then the market's going to do what it's going to do. [00:00:32] Sam Wilson: Kris Benson is the CIO at Reliant Real Estate Management. They are a top 30 vertically integrated self-storage operator. Kris and his Reliant team have transacted on over $1 billion in self-storage in the past five years, Kris, welcome to the show. [00:00:47] Kris Benson: Hey, Sam. Pleasure. Appreciate you taking the time. [00:00:49] Sam Wilson: Hey man. Thank you for coming on. Certainly appreciate it. There are three questions I ask every guest who comes on the show" in 90 seconds or less can you tell me where did you start? Where are you now? And how did you get there? [00:00:59] Kris Benson: Those three questions take longer than 90 seconds to answer. Is that okay? [00:01:03] Sam Wilson: Do your best. [00:01:05] Kris Benson: Where I started, probably very similarly to a lot of people who get involved in real estate. I owned some duplexes in the town that I lived in and very quickly realized that that was going to be very challenging to scale. And essentially I hated everything about it. It was not really the work, it was more, the people like it was just soul-sucking. It, it always, there was always problems. No one was ever happy. So ultimately I heard in a podcast or read, I wish I could credit who said it to me, but basically it was big deals and small deals are the same amount of work. You just make less money and small deals. And so we started to scale into some larger multifamily we've ended up building a 64 unit apartment complex. And for me, Sam, that's where kind of the light bulbs went off where I was like, ah, this is how you make money in real estate. And, and it was figuring out how to do it at scale. [00:01:54] Kris Benson: And I'm going to fast forward a lot of the story, but how we got to where we are now is about six years ago, I was convinced cap rates and multifamily couldn't possibly get any more compressed than where they were at that moment. Whoops. I was off by quite a few years, so I started looking for other asset classes to invest in. And that brought me to two really interesting niche classes, mobile home parks and storage, and kind of fell in love with the metrics behind storage. So was an investor of Reliant, which is where I am now first. And then the founder of Reliant, Todd Allen, and I kind of formed a partnership and we've been scaling ever since. So it's, it's been a fun ride. [00:02:33] Sam Wilson: Yeah, that's interesting. Your crystal ball was definitely broken when it comes to where multifamily has gone. I was talking to a friend of mine the other day. They said in 2016, they were underwriting a deal and they couldn't bring themselves to pay 14 million for it. And then, just traded hands, what did he say, 45 million here just a couple of months ago. And he's just like, I don't even understand this. This is crazy. So, but you know, aside from that, I don't want to go down that rabbit hole necessarily and talk about why it's where it is, but you found a niche in self-storage. Tell me a little bit about what you guys are seeing as far as opportunity goes right now in the self-storage space. [00:03:08] Kris Benson: Yeah, for sure. I mean, what I would say, Sam, is Reliant is a value add shop. So generally we're buying existing assets and adding something to them to force appreciation. So we're just, our goal is always to grow NOI and usually, our plan is expansion. So we're adding square footage and then getting those units leased up. And generally, that's where we're getting our NOI growth. We do some other things, you know, especially if we're taking over kind of a mom and pop owned facility, there's usually some low hanging fruit there as far as, you know, rental rate increases and having things like U-Haul truck rental and tenant insurance and those kinds of things as well, where we can add some ancillary income. But I would say, look, the market in self-storage in the last three years has been pretty incredible. We've seen a significant compression in cap rates. So values have gone through the roof. And what's interesting, Sam, is we stand here today, it's the middle of June, interest rates are rising, but we haven't seen cap rates come up. Values are not changing yet. [00:04:06] Kris Benson: And I think, you know, a motivator behind that is there's still a lot of capital chasing deals from an institutional level. There's a lot of money still trying to get into the asset class. I had to call this morning with a group. They just funded a group that is starting up and looking for some expansion capital, and they had 13 term sheets. And this group is coming to us saying, Hey, these guys are still looking for a place to place money, do you want to talk about it? So there's still a lot of capital chasing this asset class for the reasons that, you know, we fell in love with it. There's, there's a lot of recession resiliency there, at least in the last two economic cycles. And I think, you know, institutional capital is trying to find deployment in that space. [00:04:46] Sam Wilson: Yeah. I mean, certainly, I don't know any asset class where capital just isn't chasing yield. I mean, it's looking for it wherever it can find it. So, you know, it's no, obviously no surprise that it's gone into self-storage, but let me ask you this. I understand the, and we think we well covered it on this show, the recession benefits of self-storage, but yet I think in every, every crisis, it brings out unique opportunities to acquire. Are there people who are misaligning their portfolios or taking on debt in the wrong way, or just setting themselves up for failure in the self-storage asset class in particular if we go into a recession? [00:05:25] Kris Benson: We hope so. Time will tell, Sam, right? I, I agree. Usually, the best buying opportunities are, are going to be in when there's blood in the streets, right? We'll find out is there's been a huge glut of self-storage development in the last five years, right, so a lot of people, when you make money in an asset class, People are going to show up and say, oh, I can do that, right? So there's been a lot of merchant builders who are not self-storage operators, they just are developers. They can develop a storage facility and they hope, Hey, I'm the backend. I'm going to sell this to one of the REITs or a publicly traded company. It's going to turn out just fine. And, and they've been right for a long time. The interesting part's going to be, look, if I did a ground-up development three years ago, I was probably underrating sub 4% debt on my construction loans, right? In my model, I was saying, all right, it's going to build be a year plus to build, it's going to take me a year or two to lease this thing up. And then I got to go get perm financing. The question's going to be, what did they underwrite that permanent financing at interest rate wise, right? And if they needed it to be a four and a half to make their project work, Well, they're going to come into a market where it's five plus, right? And that's where we could see some pain, right? Is the sea of old deals where they're coming to market and saying, all right, I got to go get perm financing. And the lender's looking at them saying, yeah. At five and a half, or you can buy down your note, you got to come up and, you know, come up with a big chunk of cash to buy down the proceeds. So, Sam, I think, you know, for those operators that may not be well capitalized, there may be some opportunities there where deals that either banks are taking or banks are starting shop 'cause they know, Hey, we're going to get this thing back. So, you know, I think time will tell. The other part of this is there's a lot of people in the space who, you know, are not sophisticated operators and when things get tight, you know, again, it probably comes down to bad debt or too aggressive on the debt side. But when you're not a sophisticated operator, it's harder to make things work when, you know, the revenue side gets a little bit tighter. [00:07:24] Sam Wilson: What are some things, when you say that word sophisticated, what are some things that come to mind that you would say would make someone a sophisticated operator? [00:07:31] Kris Benson: Yeah, that's a fair question. [00:07:32] Kris Benson: I mean, there's a lot to that, right? And I think it depends on what you're thinking about, but, well, let's start with just kind of the digital marketing side, right? And, and how you're attracting customers. I think in the world, we live in, Sam, today, even in the smaller markets, the secondary and tertiary markets. We generally like to operate in the smaller markets 'cause we have a competitive advantage there, right? Our digital ads, Google AdWords, SEO, those types of things. Generally, mom and pop operators have a website, but they're not really doing anything else, right? And when I say mom and pop, it's not derogatory. You know, people who own less than five facilities kind of fall in that category, right? And it's, it's not good or bad. It just is the, how they attract customers. Do they have, I'd say a big thing in the last 24 months has been touchless leasing, right? So the ability for a customer to rent online, get access to their unit, get their lock and never go in the office, sign their lease. Everything is done online that's since COVID has been a huge push, I would say probably 30 to 40% of our leases. They never walk into our facilities. That's another one. [00:08:39] Kris Benson: And then I, I would say this one is probably going to be most important moving forward is kind of a dynamic pricing algorithm where you're matching prices day to day, based on occupancy and trying to squeeze out revenue based on, you know, Hey, we, we may have five to seven types of units in a particular facility and each one is being priced based on that type of units occupancy, right? So if 10 by tens are full, that price is going to go up. If five by tens are, you know, empty, that price is going to go down and that's shifting every day comparatively to what's happening in the rest of the market. So just kind of a snapshot. [00:09:17] Sam Wilson: No, I love that. And that, that brings, you know, a few things out that maybe I hadn't thought about. And we're certainly seeing that on the dynamic pricing side, on the RV resorts. You know, it's something where again, you know, mostly mom and pop owned and it's like, well, we know that you know, it's, you know, $69 a night, $79 a night, whatever it is. And that's been what they've been saying for a decade 'cause it's easy to remember. But it's also parable for business. Like, wait, no, I mean, it's July 4th. You should not be 79. You should be $179 a night. Like, whatever it is, again, I'm making up numbers here, but that, that whole dynamic pricing capacity is something that, you know, it's overlooked, I think in a lot of industries and we've seen that of course come around in Airbnb. We've seen that the airlines, the hotels have had it forever and it's like, why don't we have this applied across, you know, all of our real estate asset classes? So do you think that will take off? You know, and there's just a, there's a random stray thought here so forgive me. I mean, we don't, we haven't seen that in the multifamily space yet. [00:10:12] Kris Benson: The dynamic pricing.? [00:10:13] Sam Wilson: Yeah. Have you seen that anywhere? [00:10:15] Kris Benson: Yeah, it exists for sure, especially some of the larger operating platforms. That's where I first got introduced to it is that pricing is changing in the market almost daily, based on unit type. The difference is, Sam, with, with multifamily specifically, right? The big boys report. So there's, you know, like the Yardi and the CoStar are getting that data, so that everybody can have the benefit of having that data, right? And in storage, there's a couple of groups trying, Radius+ is one, where they're trying to create this momentum where operators are reporting this information in so we can all benefit from. But it's definitely not to the level of like a multifamily and, and part of it's just because the market is much smaller than multifamily. So software companies are looking, Hey, where do we invest dollars to build a platform? Storage is a smaller addressable market than multifamily, right? So, you know, I think part of it is who's making investments into the space and storage has come a long way from where it was 10 years ago, for sure in the sophistication and, you know, the technology that's supporting it, but it's still not kind of the maturity level, I would say, of like a multifamily or an office, right? You know, some of the core four, when you think about the major real estate asset classes, but, yeah, I would say that that pricing algorithm tool is, is super helpful when you think about how to squeeze NOI, right? [00:11:39] Kris Benson: And Sam, in the world, you and I live in, that's how we should be judged by investors, right? You know, I mean, so if you have been a, an operator of almost any asset class for the last five years, You should have made money unless you're really, you know, really screwed it up, you should have made money. And that could have been just cap rate compression. You could have done nothing. And you still should have made money. What I would say you should measure us on is, well, what happened to NOI during that period? Did we grow that? That's what you can hold us accountable to, but cap rates and valuations, who knows, that's all made up, right? So we can't control that, but what we can control is. If we can squeeze NOI out of something, we're doing our job and then the market's going to do what it's going to do. [00:12:24] Sam Wilson: Right. Absolutely. Absolutely. Tell me about this. You guys, I mean, you, you own some regular, just standard self-storage. When I say that, I'm thinking like you said, 5 by 10, 10 by 10, whatever, 10 by 20 units. Do you guys have your hands in any other type of storage? [00:12:39] Kris Benson: Like wine storage or like that type of stuff? Or boat and RV? [00:12:43] Sam Wilson: Yeah. Any of those. I hadn't thought about wine storage, but yeah. I mean, I guess obviously you own boat and RV storage as well, is that right? [00:12:49] Kris Benson: Yep. We do. We have some boat and RV-specific facilities where that's, you know, that's all they do. And then, we also have some storage facilities with traditional climate, you know, non climate controlled units, like the garages that we have parking on. Sometimes it's, you know, covered parking where you got the steel beams, corrugated metal roofs, and trickle chargers, and you can park in there. We kind of have a mix of both. It really depends on the market that we're in. You know, where we found the most success, obviously in the boat and RV parking is somewhere around a lake or recreational area. Generally, people want to park the boats and RVs there. So, yeah. You know, it, it's very market specific if we're, you know, in downtown Atlanta and does a boat and RV parking place do well? Probably not. [00:13:32] Sam Wilson: Probably not. Or conversely, an RV parking place in downtown Atlanta might do great just in the sense that where else are they going to park it? Like you can't park it in your street, you know, in the, in the neighborhood, your HOAs forbid it. So it's going to be where, where else you going to put an RV if you own one? Yeah, that's interesting. I know we talked about that a little bit off air as to like, what happens to all of these assets, you know, if we have a recession in the gas prices? You know, gas prices keep going up, we go into a recession. What happens to boat and RV storage? Where does that go? I don't know. [00:14:02] Kris Benson: Yeah, it's going to be interesting. Last night I was cooking dinner actually, and I had the David Muir, Nightly News, ABC or CBS. I don't know what, what channel it is, but he was talking about Biden, you know, potentially proposing the idea of a gas tax holiday. And I was like, oh, that's probably a good idea right now. And then they're like, that will save on average 18 cents a gallon. I was like, perfect. That should make a huge impact in most people's lives. They fill up 10 gallons. I get a dollar 80 back. Thanks, federal government. I guess I don't know how you kind of think about that and be like, that's how we're going to fix this. [00:14:34] Sam Wilson: Right, right. Let's not think about the fact that three times more expensive to fill up this year than it was last year. Let's think about saving 18 cents a gallon. Yeah, absolutely. Man, it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out. It was a conversation we talked about again before we hit record on this, where you were talking about return on equity. I thought that was an interesting point where you were talking to a seller and the sellers, you know, you basically were able to present to them this idea that, Hey, you can hold this asset for a decade. But what's your equity doing for you? Can you break that down for us? 'Cause I really like that thought process. [00:15:05] Kris Benson: Yeah, for sure. I mean, look, I'm a huge believer, Sam, that real estate, anything you buy today, in 20 years is going to be a good deal, right? So I'm 42. Anything, anything that I had purchased when I was 22 today, it's worth more money. [00:15:19] Sam Wilson: Sure. [00:15:19] Kris Benson: Unquestionably, right? So you know, when I think about with, that's kind of on my original invested equity, I may have an incredible return on that when and if I have a liquidation event, right? So let's say I hold it for 20 years, but if three years in, the equity in the deal has doubled or tripled or quadrupled or whatever the specific situation you and I were talking about is a gentleman who built a boat and RV parking facility. And he had 10xed, essentially his equity by building the facility and filling it up in two years. And so what I think about from the investing side in that is, okay, so you have X amount of equity. What's your return on the equity that you currently have? Not what he wrote the check for, right, he wrote the check for 250 grand when he built it. Now he's got 2.5 million in it, and when you look at your cash flows, not on 250 grand, it's your cash flows divided by 2.5 million. His return on equity is terrible and not terrible, but there are other opportunities for you out there. And so I think that's how we look at a lot of our deals with our investors is when we get to that point where there's equity in the deals, is it time to liquidate or refinance and pull that equity out because our investor's money has built that equity too. We, Reliant, with our equity in the don't want it sitting there not earning. And you as an investor with Reliant, if you've doubled your equity, you don't want that sitting in there getting a 2%, 3%, especially in this inflationary environment, right? So I think it's always just a balance of you got to look at, all right, what can I do with this money if I pull it out, and if I'm going and buying boats and RVs? Probably not a great investment, but if I could pull that money out and go reinvest and churn it again, you know, that's where we start to get that compounding effect on the investment side of things. [00:17:11] Sam Wilson: Yeah. And I think that's, that doesn't bode well with the Dave Ramsey school of thought, but I think there are differences there, obviously between what he talks. Like you said, you know, Hey, if you're going to pull out this equity and go buy a boat just for kicks and giggles, then you're just buying another highly depreciating asset and paying probably too much for it. And that's a bad move. And, and I think that's always a personal decision too. Like, you know, sometimes there's a return on equity and then there's a return on peace of mind. That's like, okay, well, which one, which one is it? Maybe this guy's super happy. He's like, I don't care, man. I own a facility free and clear and I get paid for it every year and I don't have to think about it. So ROPM, return on peace of mind. You don't know, but I do like that idea. [00:17:48] Kris Benson: You trademark that, Sam. RO... [00:17:50] Sam Wilson: PM, return on peace of mind. And so I think that's always interesting is we survey our own portfolios and go, okay, what's it look like to extract maximum value and maximum return out of this, and do it in a way that is meaningful and also, you know, protects us from downside risk. Are you guys doing any development right now? [00:18:07] Kris Benson: Yeah. You're saying from a ground-up standpoint.? [00:18:09] Sam Wilson: Yep. [00:18:10] Kris Benson: Yeah, we're not what I would consider a developer, meaning, Hey, we can do 10 projects a year. We just don't have the team to support it. We are in the midst of, well, two active developments. Third, that's kind of going through an approval process right now, and hopefully, we'll have shovels in the ground before the end of the summer. So a little bit. Generally, we're usually about one a year, but what I would say is there's going to be value in development right now. And there has been, but we feel like there's kind of an interesting space right now, just from a return on stabilized yield. Like, what you're going to get once this thing is built and the prices per square foot that are being paid for basically empty buildings and the replacement cost against it, you know, there's a Delta there and an opportunity for sure. [00:18:53] Sam Wilson: Right, right. Yeah. It's really interesting. And that's what we're seeing a lot, even, especially in the multifamily space. I hear a lot, have a lot of people come on the show and say, they'll say, Hey, you know, it's cheaper for us to build than it is to buy existing and then, and then do a value add, like we can just turn around and just push shovel on the ground and start ground up and have a better product for less money. Like, well, that's really interesting. [00:19:11] Kris Benson: For sure. [00:19:12] Sam Wilson: Fantastic. Kris, I've really enjoyed this. Thanks for taking the time today to break down the self-storage market for us, what you guys are buying, how you've bought it. I love the clarification there around what a sophisticated operation or operator could look like, you know, and, and kind of giving some quick ideas on, you know, when you see a mom and pop operator, the things that it could be very, very easily improved. Yeah. Certainly appreciate that. Thanks for taking the time to share your story and just give us insight on what opportunities you see out there in the market. If our listeners want to get in touch with you or learn more about you, what is the best way to do that? [00:19:42] Kris Benson: Yeah, I think probably our website's best, reliant-mgmt.com, which is the abbreviation of management, or if you just Google Reliant Real Estate Management, you're going to find us, you can find our current investment opportunities, contact us, get in touch with our team, and learn a little bit more about the team and track record here. [00:19:59] Sam Wilson: Awesome, Kris, thank you again, certainly appreciate your time. [00:20:02] Kris Benson: My pleasure. Thanks, Sam.
Ryan Gibson is the Chief Investment Officer and the Co-Founder of SIG. He has organized over $30M of private equity for Spartan's projects. Ryan has experience managing the development of SIGs projects in challenging markets.For SIG, Ryan is responsible for investor relations and capital raises for projects. Ryan is also a highly experienced commercial airline pilot. Ryan graduated from Mercyhurst University with a bachelor's degree in Business, with concentrations in Marketing, Management, and Advertising.Spartan Investment Group primarily focuses on self-storage syndications and recently launched Spartan Storage Fund 1. The fund targets value-add facilities in key markets throughout the United States.70 Projects, 2500 Units, and $540M in Self StorageJoin Our Passive Investor NetworkDownload Our Passive Investor Guide to Multifamily SyndicationsWE DISCUSS:How he found his co-founder and started his companyWhy he chose self-storage over other asset classesTop challenges faced when specializing in self-storageKey metrics to look for in a prime self-storage marketBuilding company culture and the importance of an in-office environmentRisks in hiring 3rd party property managementTheir goal to build a $5 Billion portfolioGUEST LINK:www.spartan-investors.comRyan@spartan-investors.comCONNECT WITH US! Visit our Website: https://www.canovocapital.com/podcastConnect with us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/theleadsponsorFollow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/TheLeadSponsorFollow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theleadsponsor/Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lead-sponsor-podcast-real-estate-investing/id1464256464LOVE THE SHOW? PLEASE SUBSCRIBE, RATE, REVIEW & SHARE
7investing Lead Advisor, Luke Hallard, is joined on the podcast this week by Adam Mead, CEO and Chief Investment Officer for Mead Capital Management, and author of “The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway”, a chronological history of Berkshire Hathaway, from its inception as a Textile Conglomerate in the 1950s to its status today as one of the world's largest and most respected companies. The last eight months have been a pretty tough time for growth investors, and perhaps the best example of this is the performance of the Ark Invest fund, which is currently underperforming Berkshire Hathaway over pretty much every timeframe. In his conversation with Luke, Adam draws out five key lessons from the last seventy years of Berkshire's history that any growth investor can apply to improve their investment returns. In the discussion, Adam discusses why simple businesses can often make the best investments; the importance of focusing on the right variables, and tracking the business performance rather than the stock price. Luke and Adam also discuss the power of patience, and why a ‘fear of missing out' can be a wealth-destroying trap for any investor. Adam can be found on Twitter @BRK_Student, at his YouTube channel ‘The Oracles Classroom', or at his investment newsletter, ‘Watchlist Investing'. The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway can be purchased at Amazon. Welcome to 7investing. We are here to empower you to invest in your future! We publish our 7 best ideas in the stock market to our subscribers for just $49 per month or $399 per year. Start your journey toward's financial independence: https://www.7investing.com/subscribe Stop by our website to level-up your investing education: https://www.7investing.com Join the 7investing Community Forum: https://discord.gg/6YvazDf9sw Follow us: ► https://www.facebook.com/7investing ► https://twitter.com/7investing ► https://instagram.com/7investing --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/7investing/message
On today's episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Teddy Vallee, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Pervalle Global. After positioning to be short everything in the first half of 2022, Teddy now sees an environment where inflation will begin to roll over. With typical growth indicators slowing down such as commodities, Teddy sees an attractive risk/reward in the bond market. Teddy then shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io -- Referenced In The Show: BOE Raises Rates by Most Since 1995, Warns of Long Recession: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-04/boe-raises-rates-by-most-since-1995-warns-of-long-recession Sweeping Mortgage Boycott Changes the Face of Dissent in China: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-03/china-real-estate-market-crisis-protests-may-spur-multi-billion-dollar-rescue -- Follow Teddy: https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Top Stories Of The Week (10:13) DAS (11:33) Feature Interview with Teddy Vallee (16:12) Why Is Inflation Heading Lower? (21:20) Will Powell Pivot? (23:34) Market reaction To Powell's Comments (28:42) The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening (31:02) Outlook For The U.S Dollar (34:11) What Is Happening In The Bond Market? (36:49) Teddy's Actionable Trade Idea (40:51) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Today we have a member of the Tribe of Titans, Briar Bearss tell us his experiences so far in his career and what lessons he has learned.Join our multifamily investing community for FREE for in-depth courses and live networking with like-minded apartment investors at the Tribe of TitansLink to subscribe to YouTube channel: https://tinyurl.com/SubYouTubeDiaryPodcastApple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/AppleDiaryPodcast Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SpotDiaryPodcast Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/GoogleDiaryPodcast Follow us on:Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/DiaryAptInv/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Diary_Apt_Inv Instagram: https://bit.ly/3zvlcWCThis episode originally aired on August 5, 2022---Your host, Brian Briscoe, has been a general partner in 655 units worth $50 million and has been lead sponsor, asset manager, capital raiser, and key principal on these properties. He has developed a multifamily education community called the Tribe of Titans that helps aspiring investors learn the game, network with other like-minded professionals, and get their apartment investing business to the next level. He is founder of Streamline Capital Group, which will continue to acquire multifamily assets well into the future. He retired as a Lieutenant Colonel in the United States Marine Corps in 2021.Connect with him on LinkedIn---Briar BearssBriar J. Bearss is an entrepreneur currently focused on the real estate industry. As a cadet at the United States Military Academy-West Point he co-founded My Tennessee Home Solution (MTHS), now the premier off-market real estate company in Tennessee. Since its inception in January of 2021, MTHS has acquired over $30M in residential and commercial real estate. Bearss now serves as the Chief Investment Officer for MTHS, managing the relationships between the company and it's over 2,000 investor clients spanning the entire United States and abroad. Learn more about him at: https://bit.ly/3vFJ9s4
Speakers:George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer, KeyBank Investment CenterStephen Hoedt, CMT, Managing Director, Equity & Fixed Income Research, KeyBank Investment Center Cynthia Honcharenko, Senior Portfolio Manager – Taxable Fixed Income, KeyBank Investment Center Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy, KeyBank Investment Center Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income, KeyBank Investment Center 01:06 – Review of key economic data 02:00 – Observations from the FOMC meeting 05:17 – Outlook on consumer spending and the labor market 08:06 – Is the peak over in terms of Fed tightening? 14:39 – Second quarter 2022 earnings insights Additional Resources: Investment Brief
We revisit our monthly emerging markets conversation to outline the latest flagship publication which highlights the fragility of emerging markets in a changing global liquidity environment and how to position accordingly. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Welcome to season 2, episode 10 of Modern Money Doughnuts (MMD), hosted by Steven Hail and Gabrielle Bond. MMD is an international show about modern monetary theory and ecological economics. This week, Steven and Gabie talk to Con Michalakis. Con is the Chief Investment Officer for Statewide Superannuation, South Australia's biggest retirement pension fund. He is also the Chair of Modern Money Lab. We will ask Con about how he came to understand MMT, and about his role in launching our suite of postgraduate courses with Torrens University. (All episodes of Modern Money Donuts can be found on this page by Modern Money Labs.) Here's the video from which this audio comes from. (The audio is unedited.) MMD is hosted by Kerberos Media, and the audio podcast is, for now, hosted by Activist #MMT. So if you'd like to be automatically notified of each new MMD episode, then subscribe to Activist #MMT on your favorite podcast platform.
Welcome to season 2, episode 10 of Modern Money Doughnuts (MMD), hosted by Steven Hail and Gabrielle Bond. MMD is an international show about modern monetary theory and ecological economics. This week, Steven and Gabie talk to Con Michalakis. Con is the Chief Investment Officer for Statewide Superannuation, South Australia's biggest retirement pension fund. He is also the Chair of Modern Money Lab. We will ask Con about how he came to understand MMT, and about his role in launching our suite of postgraduate courses with Torrens University. (All episodes of Modern Money Donuts can be found on by Modern Money Labs.) Here's from which this audio comes from. (The audio is unedited.) MMD is hosted by Kerberos Media, and the audio podcast is, for now, hosted by Activist #MMT. So if you'd like to be automatically notified of each new MMD episode, then subscribe to Activist #MMT on your favorite podcast platform.
Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, discusses the economy, markets, and inflation. Mick Mulroy, co-founder of the Lobo Institute and Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East serving under James Mattis as well as a retired CIA officer and US Marine, discusses Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan and the US strike in Afghanistan that killed an Al-Qaeda leader. Sri Natarajan, Senior Reporter with Bloomberg News, discusses his Big Take story on Goldman Sachs allegedly trying to tarnish two former employees' reputations. Rhett Buttle, Founder and Principal at Public Private Strategies, joins the show to discuss the CHIPS act and the Biden administration's challenges and strategies in 2022. Nick Stadtmiller, Director: Emerging Markets at Medley Global Advisors, discusses EMEA and emerging markets. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Dr. Ora Gordon, Regional Medical Director of the Providence Center for Clinical Genetics & Genomics discusses the latest innovation in early cancer detection. Stewart Glickman, Head of Energy Research at CFRA gives his thoughts on the oil market. Bloomberg Quicktake's Scarlet Fu discusses the importance of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan. And we Drive to the Close with Abhay Deshpande, Chief Investment Officer at Centerstone Investors. Hosts: Tim Stenovec and Kriti Gupta Producer: Sara LivezeySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Segment 1: Tom Gimbel, founder and CEO of LaSalle Network, joins John to the health of the current labor market and what me might see in Friday’s report from the bureau of labor statistics. Segment 2: Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer, Cresset Capital, talks to John about how the Fed plans to combat inflation, if we are likely […]
Stand Up is a daily podcast. I book,host,edit, post and promote new episodes with brilliant guests every day. Please subscribe now for as little as 5$ and gain access to a community of over 800 awesome, curious, kind, funny, brilliant, generous souls Check out StandUpwithPete.com to learn more Glenn Kirschner is a former federal prosecutor with 30 years of trial experience. He served in the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia for 24 years, rising to the position of Chief of the Homicide Section. In that capacity, Glenn supervised 30 homicide prosecutors and oversaw all homicide grand jury investigations and prosecutions in Washington, DC. Prior to joining the DC U.S. Attorney's Office, Glenn served more than six years on active duty as an Army Judge Advocate General (JAG) prosecutor, trying court-martial cases and handling criminal appeals, including espionage and death penalty cases. Glenn tried hundreds of cases in his 30 years as a prosecutor, including more than 50 murder trials, multiple lengthy RICO trials and precedent-setting cases. Glenn's YouTube Channel Glenn's Podcast The GREAT Barry Ritholtz who has spent his career helping people spot their own investment errors and to learn how to better manage their own financial behaviors. He is the creator of The Big Picture, often ranked as the number one financial blog to follow by The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others. Barry Ritholtz is the creator and host of Bloomberg's “Masters in Business” radio podcast, and a featured columnist at the Washington Post. He is the author of the Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy (Wiley, 2009). In addition to serving as Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, he is also on the advisory boards of Riskalyze, and Peer Street, two leading financial technology startups bringing transparency and analytics to the investment business. Barry has named one of the “15 Most Important Economic Journalists” in the United States, and has been called one of The 25 Most Dangerous People in Financial Media. When not working, he can be found with his wife and their two dogs on the north shore of Long Island. Check out all things Jon Carroll Follow and Support Pete Coe Pete on YouTube Pete on Twitter Pete On Instagram Pete Personal FB page
Melissa Baker, Founding Partner of Fenwick Brands, discusses trends in the Private Equity space. Bloomberg Technology Reporter Alex Barinka talks about her story on TikTok's misogyny watchdog. Solomon Partners CEO Marc Cooper gives his mid-year outlook on M&A. And we Drive to the Close with Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley.Hosts: Tim Stenovec and Kriti Gupta Producer: Sara LivezeySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
As the Fed continues to surprise with large and fast interest rate increases, the market must decide, has the Fed done enough? Or is the recession already here?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, August 1st at 11 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it. Over the past year, the Fed has come under scrutiny for their outlook on inflation, and they've even admitted themselves that they misjudged the call when they claimed inflation would be transient. In an effort to regain its credibility, the Fed has swiftly pivoted to its most hawkish policy action since the 1980s. In fact, while we may have been the most hawkish equity strategists on the street at the beginning of the year, we never expected to see this many rate hikes in 2022. Suffice it to say, it hasn't gone unnoticed by markets with both stocks and bonds off to their worst start in many decades. However, since peaking in June, 10 year Treasuries have had one of their largest rallies in history, with the yield curve inverting by as much as 33 basis points. Perhaps more importantly, market based five year inflation expectations have plunged and now sit very close to the Fed's long term target of 2%. Objectively speaking, it appears as though the bond market has quickly turned into a believer that the Fed will get inflation under control. This kind of action from the Fed is bullish for bonds, and one of the main reasons we turned bullish on bonds relative to stocks back in April. Since then, bonds have done better than stocks, even though it's been a flat ride in absolute terms. It also explains why defensively oriented stocks have dominated the leadership board and why we are sticking with it. Meanwhile, stocks have rallied with bonds and are up almost 14% from the June lows. The interpretation here is that the Fed has inflation tamed, and could soon pause its rate hikes, which is usually a good sign for stocks. However, in this particular cycle, we think the time between the last rate hike and the recession will be shorter, and perhaps after the recession starts. In technical terms, a recession has already begun with last week's second quarter GDP release. However, we don't think a true recession can be declared unless the unemployment rate rises by at least a few percentage points. Given the deterioration in profit margins and forward earnings estimates, we think that risk has risen considerably as we are seeing many hiring freezes and even layoffs in certain parts of the economy. This has been most acute in industries affected by higher costs and interest rates and where there's payback in demand from the binge in consumption during the lockdowns. In our conversations with clients over the past few weeks, we've been surprised at how many think a recession was fully priced in June. While talk of recession was rampant during that sell off, and valuations reached our target price earnings ratio of 15.4x, we do not think it properly discounted the earnings damage that will entail if we are actually in a recession right now. As we have noted in that outcome, the earnings revisions which have begun this quarter are likely far from finished in both time or level. Our estimate for S&P 500 earnings going forward in a recession scenario is $195, which is likely to be reached by the first quarter of 2023. Of course, we could still avoid a recession defined as a negative labor cycle, or it might come later next year, which means the Fed pause can happen prior to the arrival of a recession allowing for that bullish window to expand. We remain open minded to any outcome, but our analysis suggests betting on the latter two outcomes is a risky one, especially after the recent rally. The bottom line, last month's rally in stocks was powerful and has investors excited that the bear market is over and looking forward to better times. However, we think it's premature to sound the all-clear with recession and therefore earnings risk is still elevated. For these reasons, we stayed defensively oriented in our equity positioning for now and remain patient with any incremental allocations to stocks. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.
Dr. Ed Yardeni, the founder, president and Chief Investment Officer of Yardeni Research on why the stock market may have bottomed in June, and what key health indicators we should focus on to see if the patient is on the road to full recovery. Plus, Yardeni shares his favorite investing and finance shows and movies, and why his favorite term, "Bond Vigilantes", is about to become popular again. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES https://www.yardeni.com/ https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/ https://www.yardeni.com/#StockMarketFundamentalsMetrics https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077VGFZBD/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_ep_dp_w1IyAb30XKCAR https://insight.factset.com/topic/earnings https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deflation.asp https://ir.wingstop.com/news-and-events/news/press-release-details/2022/Wingstop-Inc.-Reports-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx
Once a month, we take a look back at what God is doing in the world of Faith Driven Investing and the global markets. We also spend time looking at current trends and outlooks with great interest and discernment in hopes to identify God's redemptive work in the world. Bob Doll, Chief Investment Officer at Crossmark Global, and David Spika, who leads the GuideStone Investments Line of Business, have both served as guests and contributors to media outlets such as CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Moneywise, and Fox Business News. They join us for a look at market activity from July 2022. This is Marks on the Markets.
Attend DAS, crypto and macro's favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noel's prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting). – Link to Noel's first video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions (07:09) Forward Volatility (10:53) New Outlooks (19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade (22:00) Navigating High Environments (27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio (33:15) The Nature Of Money (37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility (44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors (49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed (54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market (57:05) Short Squeezes (1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies (1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
July was a good month for equities despite the Federal Reserve raising rates by 75bps at the last FOMC meeting. Kingsley Jones, Chief Investment Officer at Jevons Global tells us if markets have hit bottom whilst giving us his views on metal prices and the Australian market.
July was a good month for equities despite the Federal Reserve raising rates by 75bps at the last FOMC meeting. Kingsley Jones, Chief Investment Officer at Jevons Global tells us if markets have hit bottom whilst giving us his views on metal prices and the Australian market.
There is so much going on in the markets at the moment. Facebook's first ever revenue drop, Spotify adding millions of users, F45 down 70% in one day, the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points, and Sezzle's in a trading halt.To start this Monday episode Bryce and Alec give a quick 'round the grounds' global market wrap. All you need to know, and some extra news you'll want to know!Then the lads are joined by Founding Partner and the Chief Investment Officer of Munro Partners, Nick Griffin to get his thoughts on the market and how Munro Partners are currently positioning their portfolio for growth.****Calling all bulls, bears and party animals.The market's closed and the bar is open. Come and trade ideas at Australia's biggest investing festival - Equity Mates' FinFest.With expert speakers and guests, DJs and booze, it's an inspiring and empowering event for investors of any level of experience.Save the date - 15th October, 2022 Sydney - Head to equitymates.com/finfest to register your interest.Equity Mates' FinFest, powered by Stake****Have you just started investing? Listen to Get Started Investing – Equity Mates series that breaks down all the fundamentals you need to feel confident to start your journey.Want more Equity Mates? Come to our website and subscribe to Equity Mates Investing Podcast, social media channels, Thought Starters mailing list and more at or check out our Youtube channel.*****In the spirit of reconciliation, Equity Mates Media and the hosts of Equity Mates Investing Podcast acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. We pay our respects to their elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people today. *****Equity Mates Investing Podcast is a product of Equity Mates Media. All information in this podcast is for education and entertainment purposes only. Equity Mates gives listeners access to information and educational content provided by a range of financial services professionals. It is not intended as a substitute for professional finance, legal or tax advice. The hosts of Equity Mates Investing Podcast are not financial professionals and are not aware of your personal financial circumstances. Equity Mates Media does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any information or advice given.Before making any financial decisions you should read the Product Disclosure Statement and, if necessary, consult a licensed financial professional. Do not take financial advice from a podcast or video. For more information head to the disclaimer page on the Equity Mates website where you can find ASIC resources and find a registered financial professional near you. Equity Mates is part of the Acast Creator Network. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
They often say that most are made MILLIONAIRES at times of ECONOMIC RECESSIONS. While the WHITE HOUSE refuses to admit our country is in a RECESSION, we bring special guest, MICHAEL SUTTLAR II, Chief Investment Officer, SC Capital Management, and founder of Blaxe Academy an online school for DAY TRADERS and INVESTORS to discuss the strategies and protections he puts in place to take full advantage of ECONOMIC RECESSIONS. We also invite, FINANCIAL ADVISORS and BUSINESS OWNERS to call in to ask questions and share their strategies as well. What strategies do they recommend based on age and income level of their clients and/or themselves? MENTAL DIALOGUE asking the questions America's afraid to ask. ALL I ASK IS THAT YOU THINK --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/montoya-smith/message
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Eurie Kim, Managing Partner at Forerunner Ventures, speaks with Goldman Sachs' Katie Koch, Chief Investment Officer of Public Equity in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, about the evolution of direct-to-consumer businesses, her investment philosophy and the dislocation between private and public market valuations.
Melissa Giles, Director of Portfolio Management with Americana Partners presents the Monthly Market Commentary as written by, David M Darst, Chief Investment Officer with Americana Partners. Any charts/graphs referenced are available in print format and may be provided at your request. David is currently the Chief Investment Officer for Americana Partners. David served for 17 years as a Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, with responsibility for Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy; was the founding President of the Morgan Stanley Investment Group; and was founding Chairman of the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Asset Allocation Committee. After 2014, he served for several years as Senior Advisor to and a member of the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Committee. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1996 from Goldman Sachs, where he held Senior Management posts within the Equities Division and earlier, for six years as Resident Manager of their Private Bank in Zurich. David is the Author of twelve books: (i) The Complete Bond Book (McGraw-Hill); (ii) The Handbook of the Bond and Money Markets (McGraw-Hill); (iii) The Art of Asset Allocation, Second Edition (McGraw-Hill); (iv) Mastering the Art of Asset Allocation (McGraw-Hill); (v) Benjamin Graham on Investing (McGraw-Hill); (vi) The Little Book that Saves Your Assets (John Wiley & Sons), which was ranked on the bestseller lists of The New York Times and Business Week; (vii) Portfolio Investment Opportunities in China (John Wiley & Sons); and (x) Portfolio Investment Opportunities in Precious Metals (John Wiley & Sons). His works have been translated into Chinese, Japanese, Russian, German, Korean, Italian, Indonesian, Norwegian, Romanian, and Vietnamese. Seapoint Books published David's eleventh book in 2012 , Voyager 3, containing his creative writing, and in 2016, his twelfth book, Flim-Flam Flora, a children's book coauthored with his daughter. David appears as a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX, PBS, and other television channels, and has contributed numerous articles to Barron's Euromoney, The Money Manager, Forbes.com, The Yale Economic Review, and other publications. He has broadcast and written extensively on asset allocation in the Morgan Stanley biweekly Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation Commentary and in the Firm's Wealth Management monthly publication, Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy Digest, the predecessors of which he launched in 1997. David attended Father Ryan High School in Nashville, Tennessee, graduated from Phillips Exeter Academy, was awarded a BA degree in Economics from Yale University, and earned his MBA from Harvard Business School. David serves on the Investment Committee of the Phi Beta Kappa Foundation and the Advisory Boards of the George Washington Institute for Religious Freedom and the Black Rock Arts Foundation. David has lectured extensively at Wharton, Columbia, INSEAD, and New York University Business Schools, and for nine years, David served as a visiting faculty member at Yale College, Yale School of Management, and Harvard Business School. In November 2011, David was inducted by Quinnipiac University in their Business Leaders Hall of Fame. David is a CFA Charterholder and a member of the New York Society of Security Analysts and the CFA Institute. Join Our Distribution List – For a full copy of our report. Americana Partners - https://www.americanapartners.com/contact/ Americana Partners Website - https://www.americanapartners.com/ Linked In - https://www.linkedin.com/company/americana-partners/ Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/3rX19ND89pwEob9efsFNNF iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/americana-partners/id1496186853 Google Podcasts - https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkLnBvZGJlYW4uY29tL2FtZXJpY2FuYXBhcnRuZXJzL2ZlZWQueG1s?sa=X&ved=0CAYQrrcFahcKEwj4gZrR_OnwAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAg Disclosures Americana Partners, LLC is registered as an investment adviser with the SEC. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. A copy of Americana Partners' current written disclosure brochure filed with the SEC which discusses among other things, Americana Partners' business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC's website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. The tax and legal information contained in this newsletter is general in nature. It should not be construed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Foreign securities, foreign currencies, and securities issued by U.S. entities with substantial foreign operations can involve additional risks relating to political, economic, or regulatory conditions in foreign countries. These risks include fluctuations in foreign currencies; withholding or other taxes; trading, settlement, custodial, and other operational risks; and less stringent investor protection and disclosure standards in some foreign markets. All of these factors can make foreign investments, especially those in emerging markets, more volatile and potentially less liquid than U.S. investments. In addition, foreign markets can perform differently from the U.S. market. Investing involves certain risks, including possible loss of principal. You should understand and carefully consider a strategy's objectives, risks, fees, expenses and other information before investing. The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change and are not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice. Such views do not take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor that receives them. The strategies described herein may not be suitable for all investors. There is no guarantee that the adviser will meet any of its investment objectives. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Indices do not incur costs including the payment of transaction costs, fees and other expenses. This information should not be considered a solicitation or an offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so under the laws of that jurisdiction. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments based on that index. The S&P 500® Index is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of 500 common stocks which are generally representative of the U.S. stock market as a whole. The Nasdaq Composite® Index is the market capitalization-weighted index of over 2,500 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts, common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and tracking stocks, as well as limited partnership interests. The EAFE® Index is a stock index offered by MSCI that covers non-U.S. and Canadian equity markets. It serves as a performance benchmark for the major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australasia, and the Middle East. The EAFE® Index is the oldest international stock index and is commonly called the MSCI EAFE Index. The Russell 2500® is a market-cap-weighted index that includes the smallest 2,500 companies covered in the broad-based Russell 3000 sphere of United States-based listed equities. All 2,500 of the companies included in the Index cover the small- and mid-cap market capitalizations. The Russell 1000® Growth Index is an unmanaged index that measures the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000® Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of expected price fluctuations in the S&P 500 Index options over the next 30 days. The VIX is calculated in real time by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). P/E or Price to Earnings ratio is indicates the dollar amount an investor can expect to invest in a company in order to receive one dollar of that company's earnings. The Consumer Confidence Survey® reflects prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District; Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The ISM manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), is a monthly indicator of U.S. economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. The Composite Index of Leading Indicators, otherwise known as the Leading Economic Index (LEI), is an index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months. A bond rating is a letter-based credit scoring scheme used to judge the quality and creditworthiness of a bond. The option adjusted spread (OAS) measures the difference in yield between a bond with an embedded option, such as an MBS or callables, with the yield on Treasuries. Mean reversion, in finance, suggests that various phenomena of interest such as asset prices and volatility of returns eventually revert to their long-term average levels. A meme stock is a security that has seen an increase in trading volume after going viral on social media or an online forum. This document may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities, and the future performance of the U.S. market generally. Forward looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as; “believe,” “expect,”“anticipate,”“should,”“planned,”“estimated,”“potential”and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio' operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward looking statements or examples. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, modified or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Americana Partners. Americana Partners reserves the right, at any time and without notice, to amend, or cease publication of the information contained herein. Certain of the information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources and has not been independently verified. It is made available on an "as is" basis without warranty. Any strategies or investment programs described in this presentation are provided for educational purposes only and are not necessarily indicative of securities offered for sale or private placement offerings available to any investor. The mention of any individual security should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell that security.
Welcome back to Don't Retire… Graduate! As part of our summer throwback series, we're bringing back some of our favorite episodes from seasons passed. Today, we're welcoming back our very own Yanni Niebuhr, CFP®, Chief Investment Officer here at BFG Financial Advisors. Originally released way back in our first season, this episode is still as relevant as ever and covers the financial planning from the perspectives of the Millennial and Gen X generations, and how people are planning differently about the next chapter of their lives. And please join us in congratulating our guest, who, in the time since this episode was recorded, welcomed his second baby boy! In this episode we'll talk about: How retirement planning is a marathon, not a sprint, and why planning should start early How Yanni, a Towson University grad, got his start in financial planning and what he wants to be when he grows up The sandwich generation and multigenerational financial planning How millennials and adults in their twenties or thirties can be doing to prepare for retirement The average debt and student loans for recent grads and how it can hurt your financial independence Deciding what your financial priority should be Legacy planning and leaving behind things more important than money – freedom, independence, vision, values Talking about money within families and how views can vary with your parents, spouse, or grandparents Side hustles and how they're impacting the idea of FIRE (financially independent retire early) Entrepreneurship and small business self-employment and how it can help you pursue your passions Social awareness and the importance it holds with younger generations Pensions, three-legged stools, social security and other antiquated retirement ideas being replaced by “you're on your own” Living in two-income society vs older generations able to live on a single income Transferring wealth between generations, to children and grandchildren, in tax-efficient ways through life insurance, trusts, and 529 College Savings Plans without creating a Billy Madison situation Unemployment and underemployment, and the shrinking value of college degrees Visit dontretiregraduate.com for a full transcript of this episode.
As markets grapple with pricing in inflation, central bank rate hikes, and slowing growth, can the recent S&P 500 rally help investors gauge what may happen next for equities?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, July 25th, at 11 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it. Since the June lows at 3650, the S&P 500 has been range trading between those lows and 3950. However, this past week, the S&P 500 peaked its head above the 50 day moving average, even touching 4000 for a few hours. While we aren't convinced this is anything but a bear market rally, it does beg the question is something going on here that could make this a more sustainable low and even the end to the bear market? First, from a fundamental standpoint, we are more convicted in our view that S&P 500 earnings estimates are too high, and they have at least 10% downside from the recent peak of $240/share. So far, that forecast has only dropped by 0.5%, making it difficult for us to agree with that view that the market has already priced it. Of course, we could also be wrong about the earnings risk and perhaps the current $238 is an accurate reflection of reality. However, with most of our leading indicators on growth rolling over, we continue to think this is not the case, and disappointing growth remains the more important variable to watch for stocks at this point, rather than inflation or the Fed's reaction to it. Having said that, we do agree with the narrative that inflation has likely peaked from a rate of change standpoint, with commodities as the best real time evidence of that claim. We think the equity market is smart enough to understand this too, and more importantly, that growth is quickly becoming a problem. Therefore, part of the recent rally may be the equity market looking forward to the Fed's eventual attempt to save the cycle from recession. With time running short on that front. And looking at past cycles, there's always a period between the Fed's last hike and the eventual recession. More importantly, this period has been a good time to be long equities. In short, the equity market always rallies when the Fed pauses tightening campaign prior to the oncoming recession. The point here is that if the market is starting to think the Fed's about to pause rate hikes after this week's, this would provide the best fundamental rationale for why equity markets have rallied over the past few weeks despite the disappointing fundamental news and why it may signal a more durable low. The problem with this thinking, in our view, is it's unlikely the Fed is going to pause early enough to save the cycle. While we appreciate that investors may be trying to leap ahead here to get in front of what could be a bullish signal for equity prices remain skeptical that the Fed can reverse the negative trends for demand that are already now well-established, some of which have nothing to do with monetary policy. Furthermore, the demand destructive nature of high inflation is presenting itself today will not easily disappear even if inflation declined sharply. This is because prices are already out of reach in areas of the economy that are critical for this cycle to extend in areas like housing and autos, food, gasoline and other necessities. Secondarily, high inflation provides a real constraint for the Fed to pause or pivot, even if they decided a risk of recession was imminent. That's the main difference versus more recent cycles and why we think it remains a good idea to stay defensively oriented in one's equity positioning until further earnings disappointments are factored into consensus estimates or equity prices. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people to find the show.
Dion Pouncil believes that energy management, managing your thoughts, managing your words, managing your actions, managing your emotions, and acquiring knowledge, are the keys to becoming wealthier. Being a sponge for data. Being a consistent winner, having more than you spend, comes from the repetition of principles. That's why certain athletes, when they get in business and they do learn, become successful because the same skill sets that it took them to become the professional level athletes can apply. Patience, self-control, discipline, work ethic, dedication and perseverance. One of my favourite parts of this interview is when Dion said "listen to the words". This means that even though you may not understand the language of investing, by constantly "listening to the words'. The language will become clear and you will begin to understand what's happening and how you can become a better investor. MoneySkool.com teaches everyday people about mindset and creating generational wealth with simple to use, beautifully designed, and easy to understand content on investing, trading, Stocks, Options, Futures, Bonds, Forex, and Crypto.Pouncil Capital partners with institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals to produce absolute risk adjusted performance returns. Dion is Principal & Chief Investment Officer of Pouncil Capital (a systematic hedge fund) and lead instructor at MoneySkool.com. (a financial education streaming app).Find out more at the blog post: https://www.stocksforbeginners.net/blog/pouncilOr at these links: https://moneyskool.comhttps://pouncilcapital.com/Portfolio tracker Sharesight tracks your trades, shows your true performance, and saves you time and money at tax time. Get 4 months free at https://www.sharesight.com/stocksforbeginnersDisclosure: The links provided are affiliate links. I will be paid a commission if you use this link to make a purchase. You will also usually receive a discount by using these links/coupon codes. I only recommend products and services that I use and trust myself or where I have interviewed and/or met the founders and have assured myself that they're offering something of value. Stocks for Beginners is for information and educational purposes only. It isn't financial advice, and you shouldn't buy or sell any investments based on what you've heard here. Any opinion or commentary is the view of the speaker only not Stocks for Beginners. This podcast doesn't replace professional advice regarding your personal financial needs, circumstances or current situation. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz discusses the toy company's earnings and partnering with SpaceX tocreate toys and collectibles. Bloomberg News Supply Chain Reporter Augusta Saraiva shares the details of her Businessweek Magazine story The AI Platform Behind a Bezos-Backed Startup's Vegan Burgers. Kathy Kraninger, VP of Regulatory Affairs at Solidus, talks about regulation for the digital asset market. And we Drive to the Close with Michael Sheldon, Chief Investment Officer at Hightower RDM Financial Group. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Howard Marks, Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, speaks with Goldman Sachs' Katie Koch, Chief Investment Officer of Public Equity in Goldman Sachs Asset Management, about his investment philosophy, his views on market cycles and why investing is the “discipline of relative selection.”
A single-stock ETF might sound like an oxymoron, but it's about to become a massive new category. These ETFs, which aim to serve up inverse and leveraged exposure to single stocks, are already a thing in Europe—and now they've come to the US, with the SEC approving the first batch earlier this month. One of them, the AXS Tesla Bear Daily ETF ($TSLQ), shows early signs of being a big hit. On this episode of Trillions, Eric Balchunas and Joel Weber speak with Matt Tuttle, Chief Investment Officer of AXS Investments, and Katie Greifeld of Bloomberg News. They discuss Tuttle's new products, how the products work, and where things might go from here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Some investors think a potential recession is already priced in but given defensive leadership, labor statistics and incoming Fed rate hikes, it may be too early to tell.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, July 18th, at 11 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it.Last week, we highlighted how extreme the 12-month price momentum weightings are for defensive sectors. In fact, it's unprecedented for this type of price momentum to occur outside of an economic recession. One reaction to this development we've heard from many clients is that a recession must already be priced based on this relationship. If true, then defensive leadership is likely to reverse with something else taking the lead, like growth stocks or even cyclicals. We disagree and believe defensive leadership will likely persist until either a recession is officially announced, or the risk of a recession is definitively extinguished.In our view, the first outcome can only be achieved with a series of negative payroll data releases, something that still seems far away given last month's 372,000 new job additions. The second outcome—a soft landing—will also be hard to prove to the market until earnings revisions bottom out and companies stop doing hiring freezes.With respect to the recession outcome, the odds have been steadily increasing now for months. Morgan Stanley's proprietary economic model is currently suggesting a 36% probability of a recession in the next 12 months. Historically speaking, once it reaches 40%, it's usually a definitive reading that recession is oncoming. Furthermore, jobless claims have been rising the past few weeks. Secondarily, the household survey for total employment peaked in March and has fallen by approximately 400,000 jobs so far. While not the gold standard for measuring labor market health, it's worth watching closely as things can change rapidly for hiring and firing, particularly when profits come under significant pressure, as we expect. Finally, the job openings data has started to roll over, albeit from record high levels, while consumer and business confidence readings remain at record lows.In the very near term, equity markets seem to be digesting another hot Consumer Price Index release very well, even as concerns rose that the Fed might raise rates as much as 100 basis points next week. Our view is that 75 basis points is still the base case, and that should be plenty to keep the Fed on track to getting ahead of the curve. Importantly, the bond market seems to agree with the yield curve inverting the most since the 2000 cycle, quickly catching up to the defensive leadership of the stock market. The bullish take which this market seems to want to try and run with one more time, is that the Fed can pivot before a recession arrives.The other positive that has investors excited again is the fact that bank stocks had a strong rally on Friday, even as the earnings results were quite mixed. While this kind of price action is a necessary condition for the bear market to be over, we would caution that second quarter results are likely to be the first of several cuts, not just for banks, but for the market overall.The bottom line is that this earnings season is likely to be the first of several disappointing ones, especially if a recession is the endgame. Therefore, staying defensively oriented in one's equity positioning should remain the best course of action for the next several months.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.
Bloomberg News Finance Reporter Katherine Doherty discusses Bank of America earnings and the bank facing a $200 million fine related to a US probe into the use of unapproved personal devices. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Bloomberg News Economics Editor Ben Holland share the details of Ben's Businessweek Magazine story The US Is Exporting Inflation, and Fed Hikes Will Make It Worse. Bloomberg News U.S. Legal News Team Leader Katia Porzecanski talks about her profile of short seller Carson Block. And we Drive to the Close with Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Independent Advisor Alliance. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Download the “65 Investment Terms You MUST Know to Reach Your Financial Goals In The Shortest Time Possible” for FREE by going to https://TodaysMarketExplained.com/ Robert Barone founded Universal value Advisors (UVA) in 2005. He is currently the firm's economist as well as a wealth and portfolio manager. Mr. Barone holds a Ph.D. in economics (Georgetown University) and is nationally known for his blogs, many of which are posted on TheStreet.com, at the Minyanville blog site, or at Forbes. He is often quoted in the financial press, and writes a column every other week for Reno's local newspaper, the Reno Gazette-Journal. In his career, he has been a Professor of Finance (University of Nevada), a community bank CEO (Comstock Bancorp), a Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco where he served as its Chair in 2004, and is currently a Director of CSAA Insurance Company (a AAA Insurance Company) where he chairs the Finance and Investment Committee. In 2007-2009 he served as Chairman of the Board for that entity. He also currently sits on the Boards of AAA Northern California, Nevada, and Utah (the AAA Auto club) and Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, OH, America's strongest refractory company. Joshua Barone is an Investment Advisor at FourStar Wealth Advisors in Reno, NV. He brings over 20 years of experience in investment management to the FourStar team. At FourStar Joshua is responsible for asset selection on over 100 million dollars of the firm's assets. Joshua is also the managing member and Chief Investment Officer of Universal Value Advisors, a Reno NV based RIA established in 2005. Universal Value Advisors is the sub-advisor to the ETF named UVA Unconstrained Immediate Term Income Fund (FFIU) which is traded on the NYSE. Prior to the establishment of Universal Value Advisors, Joshua was a co-founder of Adagio Trust Company and was a senior analyst and portfolio manager for that company during the years of 2000-2005. Joshua has also been a M&A analyst in the banking arena, analyzing potential purchases of small institutions by larger ones. He also briefly worked for Liberty Mutual and New York Life Insurance Companies. Joshua has been published in the Street, Forbes, Northern Nevada Business Weekly. Joshua has also been featured in Fast Company Magazine. Follow TME on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@TodaysMarketExplained Follow TME on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/TodaysMarketExplained Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYjCaTkX698mc6yAFaFz4tg Website: https://todaysmarketexplained.com/ DISCLAIMER: This podcast is provided by FourStar Wealth Advisors for the general public and general information purposes only. This content is not considered to be an offer to buy or sell any securities or investments. Investing involves the risk of loss and an investor should be prepared to bear potential losses. Investment should only be made after thorough review with your investment advisor considering all factors including personal goals, needs and risk tolerance. FourStar is an SEC registered investment advisor that maintains a principal business in the state of Illinois. The firm may only transact business in states in which it has filed or qualifies for a corresponding exemption from such requirements. For information about FourStar's registration status and business operations please consult the firm's form ADV disclosure documents, the most recent versions of which are available on the SEC investment advisory public disclosure website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov
Inflation, war and the risk of a recession is weighing heavily on everyone's mind. In this special episode, David Czerniecki, Chief Investment Officer for Nassau joins us again to share his perspective on the state of the economy.
Vitaliy Katsenelson was born in Murmansk, Russia, and immigrated to the United States with his family in 1991. After joining Denver-based value investment firm IMA in 1997, Vitaliy became Chief Investment Officer in 2007, and CEO in 2012. Vitaliy is also an award-winning writer. Known for his uncommon common sense, Forbes Magazine called him "The New Benjamin Graham." He's written for publications including Financial Times, Barron's, Institutional Investor and Foreign Policy. Soul in the Game is his third book, and first non-investing book.https://contrarianedge.com https://soulinthegame.net "Live Free or Dialogue" is a video conversation series within Michael Todd Fink's "Kind Mind" podcast platform and based on the etymology of the word dialogue: two individuals (di) communicating with openness, respect and mutual search for meaning (logos). https://www.michaeltoddfink.comYou can support this podcast and access bonus content here: https://patreon.com/kindmind
In this episode, hosts Rohan Gupta and Alex Patel continue their conversation with Andrew Golden, Chief Investment Officer of Princeton University Investment Company (PRINCO), about university endowments. We delve into topics diversification, the rules surrounding endowments, careers at endowments, and much more! Check out the episode to learn about university endowments in a simplified way! Andrew Golden is the Chief Investment Officer and President of Princeton University Investment Company (PRINCO), effectively the head of one of the world's largest university endowments. He came to PRINCO from Duke Management Company where he was an Investment Director. He previously worked as a Senior Associate in the Investments Office at Yale University. He is a Trustee of the Princeton Area Community Foundation, Rita Allen Foundation and Rutgers Preparatory School. Before shifting his focus to investing, Andy was a professional photographer. Andrew earned his B.A. in Philosophy from Duke University and an M.P.P.M. from the Yale School of Management. Follow StreetFins on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook here, and follow us on Twitter @rohaninvest and @patelinvest! Subscribe to Finance Simplified on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, and Anchor.fm! If you enjoy listening to our episodes and are learning, then we'd be eternally grateful if you gave us a 5-star rating on Apple Podcasts! Sign up for our weekly newsletter to receive simplified market recaps, finance tips, podcast recommendations here: streetfins.substack.com! We always love to hear from our listeners! If you have any feedback for us, we'd love to know! It will only take 1-2 minutes to tell us what all you like and what we could do better in future episodes: bit.ly/3sv4ikp. Visit StreetFins.com for all our resources and content that simplify finance for you!
Looking around the world, one of the most under-owned asset classes after years of underperformance is emerging markets. And one of the least understood and appreciated at this particular time is Asia, especially China. Once a darling of investors, it has lost favor for geopolitical, political, and business reasons. So what better time to delve into Asia than now? On this week's program, we will be joined by Robert Horrocks, Ph.D. and Chief Investment Officer of Matthews Asia, one of the first American mutual funds to focus solely on the region. Horrocks will bring us up to speed on China's economy and markets and the other Asian markets he deems worthy of our attention. Of particular interest to me is how to invest in this fast-growing region while minimizing China's powerful political risks. WEALTHTRACK Episode 1904 broadcast on July 15, 2022. More info: https://wealthtrack.com/investing-in-fast-growing-asian-markets-while-minimizing-chinas-risk-with-matthews-asias-cio/ Bookshelf: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter Bernstein https://amzn.to/3PdN1s3 Peter Bernstein from the WEALTHTRACK Archives: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznI5J0QOR3N3u5qR3ezi8QUXs2-T-Gas --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support
“Envision supply chains like a strand of Christmas lights. If one light goes out, then the whole strand will stop working,” said Eurasia Group's Christina Huguet. On the latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, we're talking about the moment those lights went out—as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold and disrupted shipping, manufacturing, and labor all at once—and what it will take more than two years later to turn those lights back on and create more resilient global supply chains. This episode is moderated by Shari Friedman, Eurasia Group's Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, and features David Bailin, Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Investments at Citi Global Wealth; and Christina Huguet, Industrial and Consumer Analyst at Eurasia Group.
While stocks have recently rallied, the strength of the U.S. dollar has risen sharply over the past year, presenting a major potential headwind for equities in the coming earnings season.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, July 11th, at 11 a.m. in New York. One of the more popular views over the past decade has been the eventual decline of the U.S. dollar. After all, with the Fed printing so many dollars since the global financial crisis and then doubling down during the COVID pandemic, this idea has merit. However, after the great financial crisis, these printed dollars never made it into the real economy, as they were simply used to patch up broken balance sheets from the housing bust. Therefore, money supply never got out of hand. In fact, during the entire period after the Fed first embarked on quantitative easing in November 2008 through the end of the cycle in March of 2020, money supply growth averaged only 6%, right in line with the long term trend of money supply and nominal GDP growth. As a result, the U.S. dollar maintained its reserve currency status and actually rose 40% during that decade. However, as we pointed out back in April of 2020, the stimulus provided during COVID was very different. At the time, we suggested that the coordinated fiscal and monetary policy was unprecedented. The result is that money supply growth exploded and since February 2020 has averaged 17%, or three times a long term trend, a truly unprecedented outcome that left us with much more inflation than what was desired. Now, with the Fed reversing course so quickly and the checks having stopped long ago, money supply growth has fallen all the way back to its long term trend of just 6%. Given the projected path for rate hikes and quantitative tightening, money supply growth is likely to fall even further, and the dollar is unlikely to show any signs of decline until the Fed pivots. Such a pivot seems unlikely any time soon, especially after last week's strong jobs report. So why does this matter so much for stocks? Based on the extreme rally so far this year, the U.S. dollar is now up 16% year over year. This is about as extreme as it gets historically speaking and unfortunately it typically coincides with financial stress on markets, a recession or both. For stocks the stronger dollar is also going to be a major headwind to earnings for many large multinationals. This could not be coming at a worse time as companies are already struggling with margin pressure from cost inflation, higher or unwanted inventories and slower demand. The simple math on S&P 500 earnings from currency is that for every percentage point increase in the dollar on a year over year basis, it's approximately a 0.5 hit to earnings per share growth. Of course, things can change quickly, but it doesn't seem likely until the path of inflation slows enough to warrant a Fed pivot. The main point for equity investors is that this dollar strength is just another reason to think earnings revisions are coming down over the next few earnings seasons. Therefore, the recent rally is likely to fizzle out before too long. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people to find the show.
Stand Up is a daily podcast. I book,host,edit, post and promote new episodes with brilliant guests every day. Please subscribe now for as little as 5$ and gain access to a community of over 800 awesome, curious, kind, funny, brilliant, generous souls Check out StandUpwithPete.com to learn more The GREAT Barry Ritholtz who has spent his career helping people spot their own investment errors and to learn how to better manage their own financial behaviors. He is the creator of The Big Picture, often ranked as the number one financial blog to follow by The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others. Barry Ritholtz is the creator and host of Bloomberg's “Masters in Business” radio podcast, and a featured columnist at the Washington Post. He is the author of the Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy (Wiley, 2009). In addition to serving as Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, he is also on the advisory boards of Riskalyze, and Peer Street, two leading financial technology startups bringing transparency and analytics to the investment business. Barry has named one of the “15 Most Important Economic Journalists” in the United States, and has been called one of The 25 Most Dangerous People in Financial Media. When not working, he can be found with his wife and their two dogs on the north shore of Long Island. Check out all things Jon Carroll Follow and Support Pete Coe Pete on YouTube Pete on Twitter Pete On Instagram Pete Personal FB page