Morgans Financial Limited

US equity markets mixed as investors continued to monitor progress on resolving the US government shutdown - Dow rose +327-points or +0.68% to 48,254.82, the 30-stock index's first close above >48,000 after setting a fresh record intra-day peak (48,431.57). Goldman Sachs Group Inc (+3.54%) and United Health Group Inc (+3.55%) both rallied ~3.5%. International Business Machines (IBM) Corp +0.40% after the company the company announced several quantum-computing "breakthroughs."

US equity markets mixed as investors continued to monitor progress on resolving the US government shutdown - Dow rose +327-points or +0.68% to 48,254.82, the 30-stock index's first close above >48,000 after setting a fresh record intra-day peak (48,431.57). Goldman Sachs Group Inc (+3.54%) and United Health Group Inc (+3.55%) both rallied ~3.5%. International Business Machines (IBM) Corp +0.40% after the company the company announced several quantum-computing "breakthroughs."

Morgans AM - Wednesday, 12 November 2025 by Morgans Financial

US equity markets rallied amid signs that a historic U.S. government shutdown could be nearing its end - Dow rose +382-points or +0.81% Nvidia Corp (up +5.79%) was the clear outperformer in the 30-stock index.

US equity markets settled narrowly mixed on Friday (7 November), recovering from steeper declines earlier in the session to cap a volatile week - Dow added +75-points or +0.16%, recovering from an earlier slide of ~400-points or -0.9%. Coca-Cola Co (up +2.16%) and Sherwin-Williams Co (+1.95%) were the leading performers in the stock index.

• Fresh selling in the technology sector led US equity markets lower overnight - Dow fell 399-points or -0.84%, with Salesforce Inc (down -5.31%) the worst performing component in the 30-stock index. So-called ‘Magnificent Seven' mega-capitalisation technology companies Nvidia Corp (down -3.65%) and Amazon.com Inc (-2.86%) also fell sharply, while Microsoft Corp (down -1.98%) extended declines into a seventh consecutive session to book its longest losing streak since 6 September 2022

Technology stocks led a rebound for US equity markets - Dow rose +226-points or +0.48% Amgen Inc (up +7.81%) was the leading performer in the 30-stock index after the pharmaceutical company posted a better-than-expected third quarter result and raised its full-year sales outlook after the close of the previous session Economic bellwether Caterpillar Inc gained +3.94%. Home Depot (down -2.41%) was the worst performing Dow component overnight.

• US equity markets retreated, with the Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) of investment banking giants Goldman Sachs Group Inc (up +0.68%) and Morgan Stanley (+0.22%) cautioning that equity markets could be heading for a drawdown of around 10% to 15% - Dow fell -251-points or -0.53%, with Caterpillar Inc (down -4.03%) and Nvidia Corp (-3.96%) both falling ~4%.

A mixed start to November for US equity markets ahead of another busy week of quarterly earnings releases - Dow fell -226-points or -0.48%, with Merck & Co Inc (down -4.06%) the worst performer in the 30-stock index. 3M Co (down -2.59%), UnitedHealth Group Inc (-2.27%) and Chevron Corp (-2.33%) all declined over >2%. Microsoft Corp (down -0.15%) announced it has secured export licenses to ship Nvidia Corp (+2.23%) chips to the United Arab Emirates amid Gulf's ambitions to become an AI leader. Amazon.com Inc rallied +4.03% to be the leading Dow component overnight, hitting a fresh record high (US$258.60) after signing a multi-year US$38B deal to supply cloud computing services to OpenAI, affording the ChatGPT maker access to Nvidia's graphics processors. Amazon soared +9.58% in the previous session after releasing stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings after the close last Thursday's (30 October), underpinned by a sharp acceleration in cloud revenue. Separately, an intense lobbying effort by Jensen Huang, chief executive of Nvidia, to persuade President Donald Trump to sell its chips to customers in China was thwarted by top US officials, The Wall Street Journal

US equity markets advanced on Friday (31 October) after a choppy session to cap a solid week and month for the benchmark indices - Dow edged +41-points or +0.09% higher Apple Inc settled -0.38% lower at US$270.37, unwinding an gain that saw the mega-capitalisation technology stock touch a fresh record intraday high of US$277.32 after reporting better-than-expected third quarter earnings after the close of last Thursday's (30 October) session and forecast holiday-quarter iPhone sales and overall revenue that surpassed Wall Street expectations thanks to strong demand for its iPhone 17 models. Nvidia Corp slipped -0.20% following news it is partnering with Samsung and other South Korean firms to deploy 250,000 of its chips across the Asian country.

• US equity markets settled mixed albeit the benchmark indices logged record intra-day highs for a third straight session as investors digested the latest monetary policy pronouncements from the Federal Reserve and eyed corporate earnings releases from three mega-capitalisation technology companies after the closing bell - Dow eased -74-points or -0.16% to 47,632, touching a record intra-day high (48,040.64) earlier in the session. Nike Inc (-3.08%) and UnitedHealth Group Inc (-3.42%) both fell over >3%. Nvidia Corp +2.99% following a well-received presentation from Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Jensen Huang at the company's GPU Technology Conference, becoming the first company to close with a US$5 trillion market capitalisation just 78-days after closing with a market capitalisation of US$4 trillion for the first time. A US$5 trillion market capitalisation is larger than the 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) of every country except the U.S. and China, and it would roughly equal what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects for Germany's nominal GDP this year.

Morgans AM - Thursday, 30 October 2025 by Morgans Financial

Benchmark US equity indices advanced to book record closing highs for a third consecutive session - Dow rose +162-points or +0.34% to 47,706.37.

US equity markets climbed to fresh record highs for a second consecutive session running on optimism that the U.S. and China will strike a trade deal when US President Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday (30 October) at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea - Dow rose +337-points or +0.71% to a record closing high of 47,544.19. Apple Inc (up +2.28% to US$268.81) and Microsoft Corp (+1.51% to US$531.52) are close to joining Nvidia in the US$4 trillion market capitalisation club, needing to close at US$269.54 and US$538.13 respectively to achieve the mark. Amazon.com Inc rose +1.23% after Reuters reported that the technology giant is planning to cut as many as 30,000 corporate jobs beginning on Tuesday (28 October) as the company works to pare expenses and compensate for over-hiring during the peak demand of the pandemic, according to three people familiar with the matter. The figure represents a small percentage of Amazon's 1.55M total employees, but nearly 10% of the company's ~350K corporate employees.

Benchmark US equity indices rallied to fresh record highs after delayed inflation figures bolstered expectations for two interest rates cuts before calendar year end - Dow rose +473-points or +1.01% 47,207.12, booking its first close above 47,000 ever a logging a record intra-day high (47,326.73). International Business Machines (IBM) Corp rallied +7.88% following a Reuters report the firm determined it could run certain quantum computing algorithms on an easily accessible Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Inc (+7.63%) chip. Investment banks Goldman Sachs Group Inc (+4.41%) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (+2%) traded strongly.

US equity markets advanced following another busy corporate earnings calendar and ahead of the release of delayed inflation figures tonight AEST - Dow rose +144-points or +0.31%. International Business Machines (IBM) Corp settled -0.87% lower, paring earlier, steeper losses following the release of an underwhelming third quarter result after the close of the previous session.

US equity markets declined as investors navigated another busy corporate earnings calendar and eyed fresh trade tensions between the US and China - Dow fell -334-points or -0.71% to 46,590.41 after a booking record closing (46,924.74) and intra-day (47,125.66) highs a day earlier.

Beginning on the 1st of October 2025, the US government began its current Federal government shutdown. The shutdown occurred because Democratic Party Senators refused to support a Continuing Resolution to provide funding for the US government. At the time of writing, Republican Senators have now put up Continuing Resolutions for funding to the Senate 11 times, and Democrat Senators have refused to support them 11 times.

Morgans AM - Wednesday, 22 October 2025 by Morgans Financial

US equity markets opened a busy week with sharp gains as investors eye a fresh round of third quarter earnings and inflation data at the end of the week - Dow rose +516-points or +1.12%, with Salesforce Inc (up +4.61%) the leading performer in the 30-stock index.

• US equity markets advanced on Friday (17 October) as investors shook off concerns about the health of the banking sector and mulled comments from President Trump about threatened extra tariffs on Chinese goods - Dow rose +238-points or +0.52% . Apple Inc rose +1.6% after the technology giant said it scored an agreement with Formula 1 to broadcast races and other content exclusively on Apple TV in the U.S. The deal, which begins next year, will include “comprehensive coverage of Formula 1, with all practice, qualifying, Sprint sessions, and Grands Prix,” as well as select races and all practice sessions for free on Apple TV. Financial terms were not released.

US equity markets retreated, with regional banks under particular pressure - Dow fell -301-points or -0.65%, with Visa Inc (down -2.98%), Nike Inc (2.37%), Walmart Inc (-2.35% after hitting a fresh record intra-day high of US$109.575), JPMorgan Chase & Co (-2.34%) and American Express Co (-2.28%) all declining over >2%.

US equity markets mostly firmer after a volatile session but settled well off their session highs - Dow dipped -17-points or -0.04%, unwinding an earlier rally of ~423-points.

US equity markets mixed as investors digested the first major earnings of the third quarter reporting season, the latest developments in the US-China trade tensions and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell - Dow rose +203-points or +0.44% Walmart Inc rallied +4.98% to be the leading performer in the 30-stock index after the biggest brick-and-mortar retailer said it is partnering with OpenAI to allow customers to buy goods from Walmart through ChatGPT. Caterpillar Inc climbed +4.50%. Nvidia Corp (down -4.40%) was the weakest Dow component overnight.

US equity markets rebounded after President Trump appeared to soften his initial hardline on China that saw him say last Friday (10 October) that he was weighing a "massive increase" in tariffs, and with investors eying the unofficial beginning of the third quarter earnings season tonight AEST - Dow rose +588-points or +1.29%, clawing back ~67% of last Friday's (10 October) decline. Nike Inc rebounded +3.31% (after dropping -4.17% in the previous session) to be the leading performer in the 30-stock index, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Salesforce Inc both gained +2.93% and were among nine Dow components that gained over >2%. JPMorgan Chase & Co rose +2.35% after the world's biggest bank said it was planning to pump US$1.5 trillion dollars over 10 years into industries seen as critical to U.S. national interests under a programme called the Security and Resiliency Initiative. The plan will focus on four key areas: Supply Chain and Manufacturing; Defence and Aerospace; Energy Independence and Resilience; and Frontier and Strategic Technologies.

US equity markets fell sharply while US Treasury yields dropped and the U.S. dollar weakened on Friday (10 October) after President Trump said he was weighing a "massive increase" in tariffs on Chinese goods - Dow dropped -879-points or -1.90% to 45,479.60. ‘Magnificent Seven' mega-capitalisation technology stocks Amazon.com Inc (down -4.99%) and Nvidia Corp (-4.89% to US$183.16, hitting a record intra-day of ) both fell over >4.5% to be the worst performers in the 30s-stock index, while Nike Inc fell -4.17%.

All three (3) major U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Thursday. Dow fell -243-points or -0.52%.

US equity markets rebounded, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq booking fresh record intra-day and closing highs - Dow flat at 46,601.78. Caterpillar Inc (up +3.17%) was the leading performer in the 30-stock index. Nvidia Corp rose +2.20% after Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Jensen Huang said that demand has risen in recent months, telling CNBC that “this year, particularly the last six months, demand of computing has gone up substantially.” Mr Huang also confirmed the company's involvement in funding Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) startup, xAI, and said that he's “super excited about the financing opportunity they're doing.” Investment banks Goldman Sachs Group Inc (-1.66%) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (-1.19%) fell over >1%.

US equity markets retreated overnight as the US government shutdown entered its second week but not before the S&P500 and Nasdaq scaled fresh record intra-day highs - Dow eased -92-points or -0.20%, with Nike Inc (down -3.18%) the worst performer in the 30-stock index, while Salesforce Inc fell -2.46% after the company said it won't pay a ransom demand from a hacker who claimed to have stolen a large amount of client data and threatened to publish it, according to an email seen by Bloomberg. International Business Machines (IBM) Corp rose +1.54% following news it was partnering with Anthropic to integrate the artificial intelligence (AI) firm's Claude large language model into its enterprise software. Amazon.com Inc added +0.4% as the e-commerce giant began its two-day Prime Big Deal Days.

US equity markets advanced, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq booking fresh record closing highs despite the U.S. government shutdown entering its sixth day, with the White House threatening mass federal worker layoffs. - Dow eased -63-points or -0.14% Verizon Communications Inc -5.11% after Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Hans Vestberg stepped down, replaced by independent lead director and former PayPal Inc CEO Dan Schulman. Sherwin-Williams Co (-2.80%). Microsoft Corp (up +2.17%) and Salesforce Inc (+2.25%) rose over >2%, while Boeing Co gained +1.59% after Bloomberg reported that the airplane maker plans to accelerate its production of jets in its 737 Max line. The company could reach a 42-jet output per month for its 737 Maxs as soon as October, the report said.

US equity markets closed out the week on a mixed note albeit the Dow and S&P500 logged fresh record closing highs - Dow rose +239-points or +0.51% to 46,758.28 Nike Inc -3.54% Nvidia Corp lost -0.67% after hitting a record closing (US$188.89) and intra-day (US$191.05) high in the previous session.

US equity indices advanced for a fifth consecutive session, with the three (3) leading indices booking a fresh round of record closing highs amid a global rally for semiconductor stocks after OpenAI announced South Korean firms SK Hynix (+9.86%) and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (+3.49%) would partner with the ChatGPT maker on its Stargate AI infrastructure project - Dow added +79-points or +0.17% to 46,519.72, tallying its first five-day winning streak since 2 May and marking the 30-stock index's second consecutive record closing high and 10th of the calendar year-to-date. Caterpillar Inc rose +2.003% to be the leading Dow component overnight. Nvidia Corp rose +0.88% to a fresh record closing high of US$188.89, hitting a record intra-day high (US$191.05) after the chipmaker's market capitalisation hit US$4.5 trillion.

US equity markets advanced, with the Dow and S&P500 posting record highs despite the federal government shutting down for the first time in six-years - Dow edged +88-points or +0.19% higher to book a second consecutive record closing high of 46,441.10. Nike Inc gained +6.41% after the athletic retail giant posted better-than-expected headline numbers for the fiscal first quarter after the close of the previous session. Nvidia Corp (+0.35%) hit a fresh record high that lifted the chipmaker's market capitalisation above >US$4.5 trillion.

Morgans AM - Wednesday, 1 October 2025 by Morgans Financial

US equity markets advanced overnight, shrugging off the potential threat of a US government shutdown and shaping to record an unusually strong September - Dow edged +69-points or +0.15% higher, with Nvidia Corp (up +2.05%) the leading performer in the 30-stock index. Chevron Corp (down -2.53%) was the weakest Dow component.

US equity markets advanced on Friday (26 September), snapping a three session losing streak following benign - Dow rose +300-points or +0.65% Boeing Co (up +3.62%) was the leading performer in the 30-stock index on Friday (26 September) after the Federal Aviation Administration confirmed a report the plane maker will be allowed to issue airworthiness certificates on some of its 737 Max and 787 jets. The eased restrictions, which enable the company to conduct the final safety check on certain aircraft, could help Boeing accelerate production and delivery schedules. In addition, Turkish Airlines finalised a deal to purchase 225 Boeing planes following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visit to the U.S. last week.

US equity markets retreated, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq declining for a third consecutive session - Dow fell -174-points or -0.38%, with Amgen Inc (-2.88%), Nike Inc (-2.78%) and Merck & Co Inc (-2.6%) all falling over >2.5%.International Business Machines (IBM) Corp gained +5.20% to be the leading performer in the 30-stock index after financial partner HSBC Holdings Plc said it had a "positive trial" using quantum computers from "Big Blue" for algorithmic bond trading.

US equity markets retreated for a second straight session, with investors booking some profits in the technology sector - Dow fell -172-points or -0.37% Amgen Inc -2.65% Goldman Sachs Group Inc (-1.72%) and International Business Machines (IBM) Corp (-1.73%) both fell ~1.7%.

US equity markets retreated from record highs, snapping a three-session streak that saw the three main indices post record intra-day and closing highs - Dow slipped -89-points or -0.19% to 46,292.78 after logging a fresh record intra-day high (46,447.13) shortly after the opening bell. Amazon.com Inc (down -3.04%) was the worst performer in the 30-stock index. The company squaring off against the Federal Trade Commission in court after the agency filed a lawsuit during the Biden administration alleging the company made it too onerous for customers to cancel their Prime memberships. Nvidia Corp fell -2.82% to US$178.43, handing back much of the previous session's +3.93% gain that lifted the chipmaker to record closing high (US$183.61) after the company said it's going to invest US$100B in OpenAI - the maker of ChatGPT - for the buildout of data centres based around the company's artificial intelligence (AI) chips. Boeing Co ( -0.26%) inked a lucrative contract to make planes for Uzbekistan Airways that President Trump described as “a GREAT deal” on his Truth Social network, noting that he had spoken with Uzbekistan president Shavkat Mirziyoyev last month.

Updated Outlook on the Federal Reserve and Australian Cash Rate In recent days, several people have asked for my updated view on the Federal Reserve and the Fed funds rate, as well as the outlook for the Australian cash rate. So I thought I'd walk through our model for the Fed funds rate and explain our approach to the RBA's cash rate.

The benchmark US equity indices booked another round of fresh record intra-day and closing highs to open the week - Dow edged +66-points or +0.14% to 46,381.54. Apple Inc rallied +4.31% to be the leading performer in the 30-stock index following reports of strong demand for the iPhone 17 in its first weekend of sales, aided by consumers seeking to replace aging devices. The stock is closing in on a fresh record closing high (after touching their highest intra-day level since December 2024 overnight at US$256.64) and market capitalisation of US$4 trillion. ‘Magnificent Seven' mega-capitalisation technology peer Nvidia Corp rallied +3.93% to a record closing high of US$183.61 after the company said it's going to invest US$100B in OpenAI - the maker of ChatGPT - for the buildout of data centres based around the company's artificial intelligence (AI) chips. The partnership "enables OpenAI to build and deploy at least 10 gigawatts of AI data centres with NVIDIA systems representing millions of GPUs [graphics processing unit] for OpenAI's next-generation AI infrastructure." Nvidia added it "intends to invest up to US$100B in OpenAI progressively as each gigawatt is deployed." However, Amazon.com Inc fell -1.66% as investors assessed the potential fallout from President Trump's shock decision late on Friday (19 September) to raise the H-1B visa application fee to US$100,000. Amazon employs ~14K staff on such visas.

The three benchmark US equity indices advanced on Friday (19 September) to book fresh record intra-day and closing highs for a second consecutive session as the US and China advanced trade talks and the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks continued to climb - Dow rose +173-points or +0.37% to 46,315.27 Apple Inc +3.20% as the company's new iPhone 17 models went on sale globally.

US equity indices logged fresh record closing highs, driven by fresh gains for the technology sector - Dow rose +124-points or +0.27% to 46,142.42, with Caterpillar Inc (up +3.62%) the leading performer in the 30-stock index and up over >7% in the past three trading sessions.

The US equity markets advanced - Dow gained +260-points or +0.57% to 46,018.32, touching a record intra-day high of 46,261.95. Amazon.com Inc (up +2.74%) and Caterpillar Inc (+2.27%) both gained over >2% to be the leading performers in the 30-stock index.

US equity markets settled with modest losses a day after both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record intra-day and closing highs as investors eye tomorrow morning's AEST interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve - Dow fell -126-points or -0.27% UnitedHealth Group Inc (-2.33%) Nvuidoa Corp (-1.61%) and Travelers Companies Inc (-1.57%) all fell over >1.5%. Microsoft Corp (down -1.23%) vice chair and president Brad Smith wrote in a blog post overnight that the ‘Magnificent Seven' mega capitalisation technology company would be making a $30B investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and ongoing operations across the United Kingdom through 2028.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record intra-day and closing highs ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest two-day monetary policy meeting kicking off that is expected to see the central bank cut benchmark interest rates for the first time this year - Dow edged +49-points or +0.11% higher, with so-called ‘Magnificent Seven' mega-capitalisation technology names Amazon.com Inc (up +1.44%), Apple Inc (+1.12%) and Microsoft Corp (+1.07%) rising over >1% along with Caterpillar Inc (+1.02%) and International Business Machines (IBM) Corp (+1.10%). Merck & Co Inc (-1.20%) and McDonald's Corp (-1.09%) fell over >1% to be the worst performing Dow components overnight. Nvidia Corp dipped -0.04%, paring an earlier decline of almost -1.9% after China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announced that following a preliminary investigation the chip giant was found to be in breach of antitrust rules in relation to its acquisition of Israel-based networking-technology group Mellanox. Separately, Nvidia is reportedly among investors in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company Firmus Technologies, which is targeting a listing on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) next year.

Morgans AM - Monday, 15 September 2025 by Morgans Financial

US stocks rose on Thursday as traders anticipated that the latest reading of a key consumer inflation gauge won't stand in the way of the Federal Reserve lowering its benchmark interest rate next week.

US equity markets were mixed overnight - Dow fell 220 points or -0.48%, dragged down by tech heavyweights, Amazon and Apple, down -3.32% and -3.22% respectively.

Benchmark US equity indices booked fresh record highs - Dow gained +196-points or +0.43% to 45,711.34. UnitedHealth Group Inc (up +8.64%) was the leading component in the 30-stock index (and S&P 500) after the health insurer estimated that 78% of its Medicare Advantage membership will be in top-rated Medicare plans next year and are likely to qualify for bonus payments from the federal government. Microsoft Corp eked out a +0.04% gain following news it had inked a US$17.4B deal for Nvidia Corp (+1.46%)-backed Nebius Group NV (+49.42%) to provide artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure for the software giant's new data centre in New Jersey. Apple Inc 1.48% after unveiling the new iPhone 17 models at its ‘Awe Dropping' event along with a number of updates that Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Tim Cook called the company's “biggest leap ever for iPhone." The company showcased four models including the iPhone 17 Air, Apple's most durable and thinnest phone ever. Apple also announced its next generation of Airpods, highlighting live translation and hearing aid functions, and updates to its Apple Watch portfolio with new health-related features such as a "sleep score" and a blood pressure monitor that can alert users to hypertension.

US equity markets advanced to open the new trading week, resuming a rally that has pushed benchmark indexes to a series of record highs in recent weeks - Dow rose +114-points or +0.25%, with International Business Machines (IBM) Corp (up +3.04%) the leading performer in the 30-stock index. Nvidia Corp (+0.77%) presented at the annual Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference overnight