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Bethany McLean, veteran investigative journalist and co-author of The Smartest Guys in the Room, saw the end of Enron coming, and is now watching the AI trade very carefully. She has questions the market isn't asking. Motley Fool analyst Rachel Warren continues her conversation with Bethany, turning the lens on the market right now. She discusses why the free cash flow of the Magnificent Seven is quietly turning negative, why the circular financing inside the AI ecosystem makes it nearly impossible to see what's really going on, and why the S&P 500 index fund you think is keeping you diversified is actually one of the most concentrated AI bets you can make. Host: Rachel Warren Guest: Bethany McLean Producers: Bart Shannon, Lauren Budabin Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, "TMF") do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We're committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dupree Financial Group Blog · The Tom Dupree Show From This Week’s Episode Retirement Investing · August 1, 2026 Is Your Retirement Portfolio Too Concentrated? A 25-year-old hedge fund manager lost roughly $35 billion in a matter of days this week. Here’s what his leverage and the market’s concentration in seven stocks have to do with your retirement account. By Tom Dupree, Founder, Dupree Financial Group | dupreefinancial.com | 859-233-0400 This week, a 25-year-old former OpenAI researcher named Leopold Aschenbrenner watched roughly $35 billion disappear from his hedge fund in a matter of days. Two years ago, he wrote a 165-page essay predicting the future of artificial intelligence with such confidence that Silicon Valley treated it like scripture. This week, his fund — built on borrowed money layered on top of a handful of AI stocks — got forced into a fire sale to Ken Griffin’s Citadel at a steep discount. It’s a dramatic story. But here’s the direct answer to the question that actually matters for your retirement: if most of your money sits in a plain S&P 500 index fund, you may be more concentrated in a handful of the same stocks than you realize — and that concentration, not any single hedge fund’s collapse, is the real thing worth understanding before your next portfolio review. You don’t need borrowed money or a 165-page manifesto to be exposed to this. You just need to own “the market” and assume that means you’re spread across 500 different companies. Key Takeaways Leverage magnifies both directions. Borrowing money to buy investments can boost gains on the way up, but it can wipe out capital just as fast on the way down. That’s the entire story of this week’s hedge fund collapse. Seven stocks now make up a large share of the S&P 500. Depending on the week you check, the “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks account for somewhere between a third and roughly 40% of the entire index’s value. Owning an index fund is not automatically owning a diversified portfolio. A market-cap-weighted index gives its biggest companies the biggest influence — so when those companies wobble, so does “the market.” Know what you own and why you own it. That’s not a slogan — it’s the single most useful question a retiree can ask before the next headline-grabbing selloff. Why This Week’s Story Is Bigger Than One Hedge Fund Every generation produces an investor who seems untouchable — brilliant, early to a trend, riding a wave everyone else is still arguing about. Aschenbrenner’s fund, Situational Awareness, reportedly grew from roughly $200 million to as much as $45 billion in under two years, largely on concentrated bets in AI infrastructure names. Then, using leverage reported as high as 400% — meaning roughly four borrowed dollars for every dollar of the fund’s own capital — a sharp pullback in a handful of semiconductor and AI stocks triggered margin calls his prime brokers couldn’t ignore. That’s the mechanical part, and it’s worth understanding in plain English: when you borrow against an investment and that investment drops in value, your loan doesn’t shrink with it. At some point the lender requires more collateral — a margin call — and if you can’t provide it, your shares get sold for you, often at the worst possible moment. There’s no easy way around that math. It requires diligence, not confidence. Most retirees reading this aren’t using 400% leverage. But there’s a quieter version of the same concentration problem sitting inside a lot of 401(k)s and IRA rollovers, and it doesn’t require a single dollar of borrowed money to hurt you. What the Numbers Actually Show According to CNBC’s reporting on the collapse, Aschenbrenner’s fund held roughly $45 billion in assets at its peak, before margin calls forced the sale of its leveraged public stock positions — including major holdings like SK Hynix and CoreWeave — to Citadel at a discount, with the fund’s overall assets falling to around $10 billion within about 30 trading days (CNBC). TechCrunch’s coverage confirms Aschenbrenner had no prior professional trading experience before launching the fund in 2024, and that the losses came from both AI stocks falling and short positions in software companies moving the wrong way at the same time (TechCrunch). Meanwhile, the broader market has its own version of this concentration story. Reporting from Forbes notes that the “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks made up roughly a third of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization heading into 2026, with some advisors calling the resulting concentration risk a “legitimate concern” (Forbes). Separate reporting from CNBC put the figure as high as 35% to 40% of the index in recent trading, prompting some strategists to recommend equal-weighted alternatives to reduce that concentration (CNBC). The SEC’s own investor education office has published plain-language guidance on why borrowing to invest carries risks that go beyond the investment itself — including the fact that a broker can sell your securities to meet a margin call without waiting for you to act, and can do so without advance notice (SEC Investor.gov). It’s the kind of guardrail worth reading once, even if you never plan to use margin yourself. “Leverage is a thing to be used very judiciously and very carefully, because if you use it in a way that’s irresponsible, it can cost you everything.” — Tom Dupree The Reframe: This Isn’t a Bet on Whether AI Wins or Loses Dupree Financial Group’s Take Most of the commentary this week has been framed as a debate: Is AI spending going to pay off, or is it a bubble? That’s an interesting argument, and reasonable people disagree about it — Microsoft’s stock jumped double digits on one earnings report this year, while Oracle’s bonds have drawn scrutiny over its own AI-related spending. But that debate is largely beside the point for a retiree building income for the next 40 or 50 years. The actual lesson isn’t “buy AI stocks” or “avoid AI stocks.” It’s that when a market’s returns get concentrated in a small number of companies, your risk gets concentrated right along with it — whether you meant it to or not. That’s exactly why our approach starts with cash flow analysis, not headlines: dividend-paying companies across sectors like insurance, telecommunications, and financials keep generating income whether or not seven technology companies are having a good month. You get paid to wait, in good markets and choppy ones, instead of hoping a narrow slice of the market keeps carrying the whole index. What This Looks Like in Practice We build separately managed accounts around companies with a history of paying and growing their dividends, purchased when they’re out of favor and less expensive — not around chasing whichever seven stocks are dominating the headlines that quarter. Bonds play a role too: current income, lower volatility, and dry powder to buy good companies when the market temporarily marks them down for reasons that have nothing to do with their underlying business. None of this means avoiding growth, and it doesn’t mean the S&P 500’s biggest companies are bad businesses — several of them are genuinely excellent. It means not letting one basket, however impressive, decide the outcome of your retirement. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and no strategy removes that risk entirely. The goal is to understand it, size it appropriately, and build income you don’t have to sell into a downturn to access. Five Things to Check in Your Own Portfolio 1Pull up your 401(k) or IRA’s top ten holdings. Most plan providers list this on your statement or online dashboard. If you don’t see it, call and ask — it’s your money, and you’re entitled to know. 2Add up what percentage those top ten represent. If it’s a plain S&P 500 index fund, expect a meaningful chunk of your total to be concentrated in a handful of names, most of them technology companies. 3Ask whether that concentration matches your risk tolerance at your stage of life. A 35-year-old accumulating wealth can absorb more concentration risk than someone drawing income in retirement. 4Check whether you’re using any form of leverage or margin, even indirectly through certain funds or products, and make sure you understand exactly what happens if those positions move against you. 5Get a second set of eyes on the whole picture. It’s easy to know your account balance and much harder to know what’s actually driving it. That’s the gap a complimentary portfolio review is built to close. Frequently Asked Questions What is “concentration risk” in a stock market index? Concentration risk means a large share of an index’s total value — and therefore its performance — comes from a small number of companies. In a market-cap-weighted index like the S&P 500, the biggest companies carry the most influence, so a downturn in just a handful of names can drag down the whole index. Why did Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund lose so much money so quickly? Reporting indicates the fund used leverage as high as 400% on concentrated AI stock positions. When those stocks declined, the borrowed money amplified the losses, triggering margin calls that forced a distressed sale of the fund’s holdings within about a month. Should retirees stop investing in S&P 500 index funds? Not necessarily — index funds remain a legitimate, low-cost building block. The point is to understand what you actually own inside that fund, including how concentrated it has become, rather than assuming “index fund” automatically means “diversified.” What does “leverage” mean in plain English? Leverage means borrowing money to increase the size of an investment beyond what your own capital could buy. It can amplify gains, but it amplifies losses the same way — and if the investment’s value drops enough, the loan doesn’t shrink to match it. How can I tell how concentrated my own retirement portfolio really is? Start by looking up your fund’s top ten holdings and what percentage of the total they represent — most providers publish this. If you’re unsure how to interpret it, a portfolio review with an advisor can walk through what you actually own and why. The Close By the time you read this, Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund will likely have faded from the headlines, replaced by whoever’s turn it is next — because, as history keeps showing us, there’s always a next one. But the question his week left behind isn’t really about him. It’s about whether you know what you own, and whether you’d be able to answer calmly if your own portfolio had a bad week. That’s the whole point of retiring on income instead of hope: you don’t need to guess right about which seven stocks win. You need a plan that keeps paying you regardless. Keep Learning Listen to the full episode — hear Tom, James Dupree, and Michael Dawahare walk through the Mag Seven earnings debate and this week’s market moves in more detail. Learn more about Dupree Financial Group — our fee-only, fiduciary approach and the team behind it. Schedule a complimentary portfolio review — see exactly how concentrated your own accounts are today. Tom Dupree Tom Dupree is the founder of Dupree Financial Group, a fee-only, fiduciary Registered Investment Advisory firm based in Lexington, Kentucky. He has spent 48 years in the investment business, starting as a municipal bond salesman in the late 1970s, and hosts The Tom Dupree Show, a weekly radio and podcast program covering the financial topics that matter most to retirees. About The Tom Dupree Show The Tom Dupree Show is hosted by Tom Dupree, founder of Dupree Financial Group and a 47-year veteran of the investment business. Each episode covers the financial topics that matter most to retirees and those approaching retirement — in plain English, without the Wall Street spin. Dupree Financial Group is a fee-only, fiduciary Registered Investment Advisory firm based in Lexington, Kentucky. The firm manages separately managed accounts focused on income-generating, dividend-paying portfolios — no products sold, no commissions, no conflicts of interest. Past episodes are available at dupreefinancial.com under the Radio tab. Schedule a Complimentary Portfolio Review If you’re not sure whether your retirement account is more concentrated in a handful of stocks than you’d like — we’ll take a look. No charge. No pressure. Just an honest conversation about what you own and whether it’s working for you. Call: 859-233-0400 | Visit: dupreefinancial.com All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past market performance discussed above refers to historical index and company data, not to the performance of any Dupree Financial Group account. Dupree Financial Group · Fee-only. Fiduciary. 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A $35B Hedge Fund Lesson | Dupree Financial Group appeared first on Dupree Financial.
• US equity markets advanced on Friday (31 July) to cap a volatile week – Dow rose +277-points or +0.53%. Amazon.com Inc soared +15.32% after posting its biggest quarterly revenue growth in over four years that helped alleviate investor concerns about potential overspending on artificial intelligence (AI) data centres. ‘Magnificent Seven' mega capitalisation technology peers Alphabet Inc (+6.73%), Microsoft Corp (+3.02%) and Nvidia Corp (+2.93%) also posted solid gains. However, Apple Inc shed -7.35% after warning that supply constraints would hurt growth
In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the inability of broad financials, insurance, and healthcare to hold gains made earlier in the week, how European financials and larger global banks continue to stand out, interesting relative relationships, like growth versus value and micro caps versus mega caps. They also discuss the breakdown in long-term US treasuries, recent pullback in the US Dollar, and the continued back and forth between the Magnificent Seven constituents.
US equity markets rebounded strongly from a sharp sell-off a day earlier following the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting, with a broader pivot back to risk – Dow +614-points or +1.19% a day after booking worst one-day decline since April 2025. Microsoft Corp soared +15.51% to book its biggest daily percentage gain in 18-years, adding +US$450B to its market capitalisation after management of the ‘Magnificent Seven' mega-capitalisation technology stock forecast an acceleration in cloud growth for the current quarter after close of the previous session. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rallied +4.5%, while Boeing Co (+3.22%) and Caterpillar Inc (+3.38%) rose over >3%. However, Salesforce Inc -4.07%, snapping a four-session losing streak amid a broader sell-off for software stocks following a recent resurgence.The broader S&P500 +1.66%, with Information Technology (up +5.24%) leading six of the eleven primary sectors higher. Communication Services (down -2.52%) and Consumer Staples (-2.24%) fell over >2%.
Is the market falling apart—or is money simply rotating? In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney explain why semiconductor stocks and the Magnificent Seven are struggling while energy, commodities, value stocks, REITs, international stocks, and emerging markets continue to perform. The team discusses why diversification is winning in 2026, whether Wall Street's AI earnings expectations have become too optimistic, and why the biggest long-term AI winners may be companies outside the technology sector. They also examine: • Whether the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates • How oil prices, tariffs, and reshoring could affect inflation • Why companies are rehiring workers after AI-related layoffs • How baby boomer wealth is supporting consumer spending and housing • Where investors may find growth beyond the Magnificent Seven The key takeaway: money is not necessarily leaving the market. It may be rotating into overlooked sectors and asset classes—and investors who stay diversified could be better positioned for what comes next.
Your S&P 500 fund says 7% — but over 300 of its stocks are beating the index. This week we dig into the massive broadening of the market that almost nobody in the financial media is talking about, and why we think it's the healthiest thing to happen to this bull market in years.For three years, seven stocks did all the talking. This year, the other 493 are answering. On this week's Money On Tap, we walk through the numbers behind the broadening: the Magnificent Seven still make up roughly a third of every dollar in a cap-weighted S&P 500 index fund — which is exactly why so many statements look stuck at 7% while the equal-weight S&P runs above 14%, the Russell 1000 Value nears 20%, and healthcare and industrials each post roughly 24% year to date. We connect it to the 100-year-old Dow theory (industry makes goods, transportation moves them — and both are near highs), unpack the defensive-stock paradox (staples rallying while nobody calls a recession), revisit the historical pattern from 1983, 1995, 2003, 2013, and 2020 where tech blows out and then leadership broadens — and get practical about what a broadening market rewards most: rebalancing, equal-weight exposure, sector and international diversification, and knowing what your 401(k) actually owns.What you'll learn:Why a third of every S&P 500 index-fund dollar sits in just seven stocks — and what that's done to your return this yearThe breadth numbers: 300+ stocks beating the index, roughly seven in ten S&P names up on the yearThe sector scoreboard: healthcare ~24%, industrials ~24%, staples ~11.3%, financials ~9.7%, utilities ~7.6%Why money is rotating, not leaving — and why that's the opposite of how crashes startDow theory at 100+: what industrials and transports near highs historically signalThe defensive-stock paradox: staples leading without a recession call anywhere in sightThe rebalancing playbook: taking profits without apology, calendar discipline, equal-weight funds (11.9% vs 10.9% over 20 years)How to broaden with new contributions instead of selling your winnersTarget-date fund warnings: layered fees, hidden allocations, and no way to rebalanceWhy this is not a reason to dump technology — proportion, not exitPlus Money In The News:A property-management company bets $200K on AI to make the trades more efficient — filling a labor gap instead of cutting jobsApple set for its strongest June-quarter sales growth in five years — flat iPhone pricing, a $5 trillion moment, and sitting out the AI arms raceThe 100-year-old Dow theory says this market isn't done climbingWant a white paper on this week's topic? Email us at info@yourmoneyontap.com and we'll send it over.Read the companion blog: https://www.brayshawfinancial.com/blogSchedule a free consultation: https://app.greminders.com/t/9f3ce72e/initialconsultaBrowse the full Money On Tap library: https://www.brayshawfinancial.com/money-on-tapContact UsPhone: 855-226-8551Email: info@yourmoneyontap.comOffice: 116 South River Road, Bedford, NH 03110Web: brayshawfinancial.comSecurities and advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. All other services offered through Brayshaw Financial Group, LLC are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc. Osaic Wealth, Inc. and Brayshaw Financial Group do not provide tax or legal advice. Index and sector figures cited are approximate year-to-date values as of the air date, drawn from sources believed reliable, and subject to change. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.Why is my S&P 500 index fund underperforming the market in 2026?Because the S&P 500 is cap-weighted: roughly a third of every dollar in the index sits in just seven stocks — the Magnificent Seven — and several of them are having an off year. Meanwhile the equal-weight S&P 500 is up more than double the cap-weighted index, and over 300 individual S&P stocks are beating it, led by healthcare and industrials near 24%. The fix isn't leaving the market — it's diversification: equal-weight exposure, sector funds, and a rebalancing discipline that trims concentration back to your plan.
• US equity markets rebounded strongly from a sharp sell-off a day earlier following the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting, with a broader pivot back to risk – Dow +614-points or +1.19% a day after booking worst one-day decline since April 2025. Microsoft Corp soared +15.51% to book its biggest daily percentage gain in 18-years, adding +US$450B to its market capitalisation after management of the ‘Magnificent Seven' mega-capitalisation technology stock forecast an acceleration in cloud growth for the current quarter after close of the previous session. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rallied +4.5%, while Boeing Co (+3.22%) and Caterpillar Inc (+3.38%) rose over >3%. However, Salesforce Inc -4.07%, snapping a four-session losing streak amid a broader sell-off for software stocks following a recent resurgence.
In this episode, Scott Becker reviews the year to date performance of the Magnificent Seven, highlighting Apple and NVIDIA’s gains, Tesla and Microsoft's declines, and why he continues to favor index fund investing.
Today we were delighted to welcome James West, Managing Director and Head of Energy and Power Research at Melius Research. James is a longtime energy analyst with more than 25 years of experience leading research teams covering oilfield services, equipment, clean energy, and power at Lehman Brothers, Barclays, Evercore ISI, and now Melius. Since joining Melius, James has expanded his coverage to include independent power producers (IPPs) and the broader power ecosystem. We were pleased to visit with James to hear his latest perspectives on the rapidly evolving energy landscape and the investment themes shaping the next decade. In our conversation, James reflects on his transition from Evercore ISI to Melius and explains why he believes the traditional Wall Street research model is evolving toward a more integrated approach that combines energy, power, technology, and industrials. We discuss how AI-driven electricity demand is accelerating the convergence of these sectors, why access to reliable power has become the biggest bottleneck to AI deployment, and why understanding the entire energy value chain has become increasingly important for investors. We examine the latest earnings season, the recent wave of energy, power, and nuclear IPOs, and how investor sentiment has shifted from enthusiasm around AI infrastructure to a greater focus on execution and capital discipline. James explains why he remains constructive on the long-term outlook for oilfield services, offshore development, international upstream activity, independent power producers, and natural gas, while highlighting the growing importance of behind-the-meter power solutions, regulatory reform, and grid infrastructure. We explore the outlook for advanced nuclear, geothermal, and critical minerals, Canada's strategic role in North American energy markets, how investors are balancing long-duration growth opportunities with near-term market volatility, and why AI is changing the way companies communicate with investors. As James notes, “your press releases have to be written for Claude or ChatGPT, whoever's going to read it before the analyst.” We wrap up the discussion with James' reflections on New York City's enduring role as a global financial and innovation hub. We greatly enjoyed the conversation and appreciate James taking the time to join us. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that fixed income markets were focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. The consensus expectation is for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged. However, there remains a small possibility of a 25-basis-point rate increase, a move that could place Chairman Warsh in President Trump's crosshairs. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 was up ~0.5% and the DJIA had gained 600 to 700 points. He attributed much of Tuesday's advance to the sharp decline in oil prices. He also highlighted ongoing sector rotation, with investors shifting capital out of semiconductor stocks and into industrial names. Apple joined the exclusive $5 trillion market-cap club. Another key area of focus this week will be AI-related capex, with three of the Magnificent Seven technology companies scheduled to report earnings. On the oil market front, he highlighted the sharp decline in crude prices, noting that Brent crude had fallen by ~$13/bbl during the week to ~$83/bbl, while WTI crude had declined by ~$11/bbl to ~$78/bbl. He attributed the selloff to rapidly shifting sentiment surrounding the on-again, off-again conflict with Iran. He concluded by noting that the Energy sector had been one of the market's strongest performers over the past several weeks but was down ~4% this week as declining oil prices weighed on sentiment. He emphasized that investors will be closely focused this week on second-quarter earnings reports from the U.S. integrated oil majors and refiners. Investors are hopeful that refiner commentary will provide greater insight into global refined product market fundamentals. Jeff Tillery noted that enthusiasm around AI-driven power infrastructure has cooled alongside AI capex sentiment, pressuring many merchant power and generation stocks, including several recent IPOs. Looking ahead, he believes the sector is entering an execution phase where investors will begin distinguishing between winners and losers rather than rewarding the entire theme uniformly.
In this episode, Scott Becker reviews the year to date performance of the Magnificent Seven, highlighting Apple and NVIDIA’s gains, Tesla and Microsoft's declines, and why he continues to favor index fund investing.
ON SALE NOW: GymCastic LIVE at U.S. Championships in Phoenix WHEN: Sunday, Aug 9th after the women's final podium ceremony at 6pm-ish WHERE: Streaming online or Phoenix, AZ WHAT: It's the post-meet after party (with a bar and snacks). We will discuss the meet immediately after it happens—and you never know who will appear at a GymCastic live show. HOW: Tickets on sale now. Club Gym Nerd members get your discount (check your email). Ellie Black (CAN) makes Commonwealth Games history as the first gymnast ever to win two Commonwealth all-around titles. We discuss the competition highlights, Gabriel Langton's frightening high bar fall, the shakeup at World Gymnastics (FIG), gymternet news and which NCAA teams would best suit today's international elite stars. COMMONWEALTH GAMES Ellie Black (CAN) wins her second Commonwealth all-around title Breanna Scott (AUS) takes silver and Lia-Monica Fontaine (CAN) wins bronze Australia wins the women's team title ahead of Canada and England Kate McDonald (AUS) wins bars gold Canada wins the men's team title Reuben Ward (SCO) delivers a home all-around victory for Scotland Watch in the United States on beIN Sports. See the full gymnastics results. MINI COMMISSION: INTERNATIONAL ELITES GO TO COLLEGE We match Rebeca Andrade (BRA), Kaylia Nemour (ALG), Mélanie de Jesus dos Santos (FRA), Kishi Rina (JPN), Manila Esposito (ITA), Flávia Saraiva (BRA), Eythora Thorsdottir (NED), Ellie Black (CAN) and other international stars with their ideal NCAA programs. Want your own mini commission? Join Club Gym Nerd at the World Champion level. CHAPTERS 00:00 – Ellie Black Makes History and Phoenix Schedule 01:37 – Gabriel Langton's High Bar Fall 04:00 – Nicolas Buompane out in World Gymnastics Shakeup 07:18 – Ellie Black's Historic Commonwealth Double 10:05 – Commonwealth Women's Team Final 15:21 – Club Gym Nerd and GymCastic Tools 18:54 – Women's All-Around Final 30:29 – Apparatus Finals and Opportunities for Comedy 40:34 – Canada and Scotland's Historic Men's Victories 45:38 – Rage-O-Meter: Commentary About Chinese Gymnasts 46:54 – Gymternet News and Romanian Safeguarding 54:02 – Nicola Bartolini Retires 55:54 – World Gymnastics Keeps Its Russian Policy 57:15 – Magnificent Seven and Phoenix Live Show 1:00:07 – Mini Commission: International Elites Go to College 1:28:16 – Club Gym Nerd and Behind The Scenes SUPPORT OUR WORK Club Gym Nerd: Ad-free podcasts, weekly live Q&A episodes, bonus content, the complete members-only archive, games, forum access and live-show discounts Shop GymCastic TOOLS, GAMES AND RESOURCES LA 2028 Roster Lab Elite Score Explorer International Gymnastics Calendar GymCastic Games GymCastic Newsletters The Balance Beam Situation Gymnastics History Resistance Resources Cover art and photograph © GymCastic / Steve Cooper. All rights reserved.
Mick Jagger may have studied economics, but this week the panel tackles the market's biggest economic questions. Is Apple becoming the new AI winner while the rest of the Mag 7 struggles under massive capital spending? Are AI infrastructure costs finally catching up with Big Tech? And could the return of single-stock futures actually matter this time? Mark Longo is joined by Andrew "The Rock Lobster" Giovinazzi and Uncle Mike Tosaw to break down another busy week in the options markets, including: Why Apple continues making new highs while many AI leaders stumble The growing debate over massive AI spending by Microsoft, Meta, NVIDIA, OpenAI and others Whether the "Magnificent Seven" are becoming the "Lag Seven" The launch of CME's new single-stock futures contracts Key earnings to watch from Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and more Unusual options activity in CoStar Group and Trimble Strategy Block: Using synthetic covered calls versus cash-secured puts Around the Block: The panel's outlook heading into a pivotal Fed and earnings week
Mick Jagger may have studied economics, but this week the panel tackles the market's biggest economic questions. Is Apple becoming the new AI winner while the rest of the Mag 7 struggles under massive capital spending? Are AI infrastructure costs finally catching up with Big Tech? And could the return of single-stock futures actually matter this time? Mark Longo is joined by Andrew "The Rock Lobster" Giovinazzi and Uncle Mike Tosaw to break down another busy week in the options markets, including: Why Apple continues making new highs while many AI leaders stumble The growing debate over massive AI spending by Microsoft, Meta, NVIDIA, OpenAI and others Whether the "Magnificent Seven" are becoming the "Lag Seven" The launch of CME's new single-stock futures contracts Key earnings to watch from Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and more Unusual options activity in CoStar Group and Trimble Strategy Block: Using synthetic covered calls versus cash-secured puts Around the Block: The panel's outlook heading into a pivotal Fed and earnings week
Dupree Financial Group Podcast Show Notes The Tom Dupree Show Episode · July 25, 2026 Oil Spikes, Stocks Shrug: What the Market Is Really Telling You The Tom Dupree Show| Dupree Financial Group | dupreefinancial.com |859-233-0400 By Tom Dupree, Founder, Dupree Financial Group Episode Description This week gave retirement investors a real-time lesson in how markets actually work. Renewed conflict near the Strait of Hormuz sent crude oil sharply higher — the kind of headline that can make anyone glance nervously at a 401(k) statement. Instead, the S&P 500 kept flirting with all-time highs anyway. Tom Dupree, Mike Johnson, and Michael Dawahare — the same team you can hear every week on the Tom Dupree Show podcast archive — dig into why the market’s reaction didn’t match the headline, and what that gap tells you about where to actually look when you’re evaluating your own portfolio. The team also unpacks a shift that’s been building all year. For the past two years, a handful of “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks carried nearly all of the S&P 500’s earnings growth. Michael walks through why that’s changing — and why the remaining 493 companies in the index are now projected to outpace the Mag Seven’s earnings growth, according to recent market data. Along the way, Tom and Mike connect that shift to two familiar names in Central Kentucky mailboxes — AT&T and Verizon — both of which addressed the SpaceX satellite-to-phone threat directly in their second-quarter 2026 earnings calls. The through-line Tom keeps coming back to: none of this is a reason to guess, and it’s not a reason to freeze either. It’s a reason to know exactly what you own and why you own it. That’s the same fee-only, fiduciary research-driven approach behind every account DFG manages — a portfolio built around dividend-paying companies doesn’t need Tehran, Washington, or Elon Musk to cooperate in order to keep generating income. “There’s no easy way to do this. It requires diligence.” Topics Covered •Why crude oil spiked this week after renewed conflict near the Strait of Hormuz •How the stock market processed the oil news without a broad sell-off •The two-year story of the “Magnificent Seven” carrying most of the S&P 500’s earnings growth •Why the “other 493” companies in the index are now projected to outpace the Mag Seven •The wide performance gap opening up inside the Mag Seven itself this year •Why the equal-weight S&P 500 has outpaced the market-cap-weighted version in 2026 •AT&T and Verizon’s earnings-call response to the SpaceX direct-to-phone threat •Why DFG owns companies based on fundamentals and dividends, not headlines or hype •The historical backdrop connecting Britain, oil, and the Strait of Hormuz •Reshoring “national championship industries” and what it could mean for long-term growth Key Takeaways A market reaction isn’t the same as a market verdict. Oil spiked hard this week, but the S&P 500 stayed close to record highs. That gap is a reminder the market is weighing probabilities, not reacting to a single headline — and a scary news cycle doesn’t automatically mean portfolio damage. The “other 493” are catching up. After two years of a small group of mega-cap tech stocks driving nearly all S&P 500 earnings growth, the broader market is now projected to outpace them. That matters if your retirement savings are concentrated in a handful of names. Not every “Magnificent Seven” stock is behaving the same way. Wide performance gaps opened up within the group this year. Owning “the market” through a single index doesn’t mean owning uniform results — it means owning whatever mix that index happens to be weighted toward right now. Fundamentals, not momentum, is the filter. DFG will own a Mag Seven name when the valuation and dividend profile make sense — the decision is driven by earnings, cash flow, and dividends, not by chasing whatever stock is trending. Even household telecom names get tested by disruption. AT&T and Verizon both addressed the SpaceX satellite-to-phone threat directly in this week’s earnings calls — a reminder that even steady, income-paying companies require ongoing diligence, not a buy-and-forget approach. Geopolitics and portfolios are more connected than they look. The long history of global oil markets and shipping lanes helps explain moves that otherwise look confusing scrolling through headlines — context that’s part of the research behind every position in the portfolio. Diligence, not diagnosis, is the DFG approach. Every position gets traced back to one question: how does this translate to your investment portfolio? That’s the filter for oil, tech earnings, telecom competition, or any other headline of the week. About The Tom Dupree Show The Tom Dupree Show is hosted by Tom Dupree, founder of Dupree Financial Group and a 47-year veteran of the investment business. Each episode covers the financial topics that matter most to retirees and those approaching retirement — in plain English, without the Wall Street spin. Dupree Financial Group is a fee-only, fiduciary Registered Investment Advisory firm based in Lexington, Kentucky. The firm manages separately managed accounts focused on income-generating, dividend-paying portfolios — no products sold, no commissions, no conflicts of interest. Past episodes are available at dupreefinancial.com under the Radio tab. Related Reading •Browse the full episode archive on the Tom Dupree Show podcast page •Learn more about DFG’s fee-only, fiduciary approach on the About Us page Schedule a Complimentary Portfolio Review If you’re not sure whether your portfolio is built to hold steady through a week like this one — oil spiking, tech stocks pulling in different directions, telecom giants fighting off a new competitor — we’ll take a look. No charge. No pressure. Just an honest conversation about what you own and whether it’s working for you. Call: 859-233-0400 | Visit: dupreefinancial.com About The Author Tom Dupree is the founder of Dupree Financial Group and has spent 47 years in the investment business, beginning his career in municipal bonds in 1978. He hosts The Tom Dupree Show and manages client portfolios built around dividend- and interest-paying investments designed to produce retirement income. Dupree Financial Group · Fee-only. Fiduciary. Lexington, KY · dupreefinancial.com · 859-233-0400 This document is for reference and internal use. Not for public distribution. The post Oil Spikes, Stocks Shrug: What the Market Is Really Telling You appeared first on Dupree Financial.
How much AI spending is too much? And why are some Tesla and SpaceX investors losing patience with Elon Musk? Plus, why are Wall Street firms paying up to $100,000 for a fast track to Trump posts? Host Imani Moise discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
How much AI spending is too much? And why are some Tesla and SpaceX investors losing patience with Elon Musk? Plus, why are Wall Street firms paying up to $100,000 for a fast track to Trump posts? Host Imani Moise discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Bitcoin remains resilient near $65,000 despite one of the biggest Big Tech selloffs of the year, with nearly $800 billion erased from the Magnificent Seven following disappointing earnings reactions from Alphabet and Tesla. The episode explores whether Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from equities, the launch of a Bitcoin Security Consortium by Strategy, BlackRock, and other industry leaders to prepare for future quantum threats, the latest setback in CLARITY Act negotiations as Democrats reject the GOP's ethics proposal, and why slowing growth at Anthropic is fueling a broader debate over AI regulation and competition. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the continued chop fest, how the Magnificent Seven is a red flag, although at the same time Financials and Transportation stocks look good, which aids the bullish thesis that this consolidation resolves in the direction of the primary trend. They also discuss if the mega cap tech and Magnificent Seven era is over, what is going on with Consumer Staples, Utilities, and is it interest rate or inflation driven. Other topics discussed are tangible assets, the U.S. Dollar, the SpaceX IPO, and the next generation of market technicians.
Whatever you've done, there's a very good chance you can recover. That's the message of this week's show — and then Ben and Dan get specific, decade by decade, about the mistakes that quietly sink retirements and the moves that rescue them.In this week's Money On Tap, Ben Brayshaw and Dan Michelon walk through the money mistakes of every stage of life. The 20s and 30s: waiting to invest, lifestyle inflation, and treating insurance as a nuisance instead of what it really is — protection of your ability to retire. The 40s — the squeeze years: turning off the 401(k) match to pay the bills (walking away from free money), getting too comfortable with debt, and skipping the tax planning that builds tax-free assets for later. The 50s — the catch-up years: catch-up contributions, the HSA "triple threat," the backdoor Roth, and the fear-driven mistake of going too conservative too soon. And in retirement itself: the light-switch move to cash, target-date funds past their date, scattered old 401(k)s, chasing a "number" instead of an income, and the biggest one of all — no plan for a health change.What you'll learn:Why your 20s and 30s are the most powerful investing decade you'll ever get — and what lifestyle inflation really costsInsurance reframed: insuring well-being, not events — and why long-term care planning protects the healthy spouseThe 401(k) match rule for the squeeze years: never walk away from free moneyWhen to shift from investment planning to retirement planning — and why the goal is an income number, not a total numberThe catch-up toolkit for your 50s: 401(k) and IRA catch-ups, the HSA triple threat, and the backdoor RothWhy "too conservative too soon" quietly loses money backwards — and how segmentation puts risk and security in one strategyThe bucket strategy in action: a real case of a 60%-bond portfolio, a 4.5% withdrawal rate, and a first-home gift — rescuedFoundational expenses: the income planning step most people skip before retiringThe health-change plan: estate documents, powers of attorney, and why waiting can mean it's too late to signPlus Money In The News:Alphabet set for a blockbuster quarter as AI bets collide with spending fears — why this AI buildout isn't the dot-com eraPhased tariffs on generic drugs: 90% of U.S. prescriptions are generics, and most aren't made hereFidelity's new number: retirees may need nearly $186,000 for healthcare — up 7.5% in a yearWant the Retirement Rescue white paper? Email us at info@yourmoneyontap.com and we'll send it over.Read the companion blog: https://www.brayshawfinancial.com/blogSchedule a free consultation: https://app.greminders.com/t/9f3ce72e/initialconsultaBrowse the full Money On Tap library: https://www.brayshawfinancial.com/money-on-tapContact UsPhone: 855-226-8551Email: info@yourmoneyontap.comOffice: 116 South River Road, Bedford, NH 03110Web: brayshawfinancial.comSecurities and advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. All other services offered through Brayshaw Financial Group, LLC are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc. Osaic Wealth, Inc. and Brayshaw Financial Group do not provide tax or legal advice. Figures cited are as of the air date, drawn from sources believed reliable, and subject to change. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.Why is my S&P 500 index fund underperforming the market in 2026?Because the S&P 500 is cap-weighted: roughly a third of every dollar in the index sits in just seven stocks — the Magnificent Seven — and several of them are having an off year. Meanwhile the equal-weight S&P 500 is up more than double the cap-weighted index, and over 300 individual S&P stocks are beating it, led by healthcare and industrials near 24%. The fix isn't leaving the market — it's diversification: equal-weight exposure, sector funds, and a rebalancing discipline that trims concentration back to your plan.
Daily Boost Podcast You're Part of a Rigged System July 23, 2026 | Episode 5504 Host: Scott Smith Episode Description Some days I'm all unicorns and rainbows — let's get out there and make it happen. I love living that way. But it's a short trip from there to grown-up motivation, and today I'm feeling a little feisty. This is personal growth for adults. It's looking at the world for exactly what it is, good and bad and all of it, then deciding to make the best of it. When you finally do that, it's amazing what you can pull off. I cut a little close to the bone today. Press play and let's get real. Featured Story My niece loves AI to death. But she hates data centers, and she's got every reason you'd expect. I'm right there with her — we like clean air, clean water, all of it. Then I asked her a question. You invest in index funds? Oh yeah, she said, we love those. Ever heard of the Magnificent Seven? Uncle Scott, I don't buy tech. I said yes you do. You own it right now. You're profiting off the very thing you hate. She went quiet. Well, I've got to take care of my family. That's cool, I told her. Just be honest about it. Important Points Look at your world for exactly what it is, the good and the bad, then decide to make the best of it and get going. Following your passion won't hand you the money by itself; you need a real, honest plan to earn from what you love. Nothing changes until you move from daydreaming into action, and typing into AI is daydreaming with moving fingers. Memorable Quotes This is grown-up motivation, and once you look at the world for exactly what it is, it's amazing what you can do. If I'll be just as good in ten years as I am today at something, then I don't want to be doing it in ten years. Nothing will happen until you move from daydreaming into action; typing into AI means your fingers are moving. Scott's Three-Step Approach Get honest about your world exactly as it is, stop dressing it up, and admit where you're already part of the game. Then clear real space in your life, for a couple of months, so the brain fog lifts and you can finally hear your calling. Now move that calling into a goal big enough to scare you a little, because that fear means you're on the right track. Chapters 0:35 - Just off an inner circle call and feeling feisty 1:06 - Grown-up motivation that cuts close to the bone 2:15 - My niece hates data centers but owns the tech 4:04 - The ten-year rule for who you want to become 5:12 - Follow your passion but plan for the money 6:02 - Turning daydreaming into action, and the AI trap 9:34 - Chasing a goal big enough to scare you a little Connect With Me Search for the Daily Boost on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify Email: support@motivationtomove.com Main Website: https://motivationtomove.com YouTube: https://youtube.com/dailyboostpodcast Instagram: https://instagram.com/heyscottsmith Facebook Page: https://facebook.com/motivationtomove Facebook Group: [https://dailyboostpodcast.com/facebook](https://dailyboostpodcast.com/facebook Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Wall Street has spent years warning about a recession, weak consumer spending, and an inevitable stock market correction. But what if the data tells a completely different story? In this interview, Chris Galipeau, Head Market Strategist at Franklin Templeton, joins Maggie Lake to explain why the U.S. economy remains far more resilient than many investors believe. He shares why corporate earnings continue to surprise to the upside, why the U.S. consumer is still driving economic growth, and why today's bearish narrative doesn't align with what's happening beneath the surface. Chris also breaks down why AI may become a productivity boom rather than a job killer, where he sees the biggest investment opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven, why small-cap stocks could outperform, and the one Federal Reserve policy mistake that could threaten the current bull market. Topics discussed: -Why recession fears keep missing the mark -The real outlook for the U.S. economy -Stock market outlook for 2026 -AI investing and corporate productivity -Why earnings matter more than politics or geopolitics -Small-cap stocks vs. the Magnificent Seven -Federal Reserve policy and inflation risks =Where investors should be looking next Whether you're investing for retirement, managing a portfolio, or trying to understand where markets go from here, this conversation offers a data-driven perspective on the economy, stocks, AI, and long-term investing.
Investi con Fineco, 60 trade gratis nei primi sei mesi #adv Da quasi un decennio c'era una sola regola d'oro: compra le Big Tech e guardala crescere più di chiunque altro. Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla. Le sette meraviglie che ogni anno salivano e facevano sembrare un folle chiunque parlasse di diversificazione. Nei primi sei mesi del 2026 sapete quanta parte del rendimento dell'S&P 500 è arrivata da quelle sette aziende? Praticamente zero. Quasi il 100% della crescita è venuto dalle altre 493 società. Ed Yardeni e mezza Wall Street le hanno già ribattezzate: non più "Magnificent Seven", ma "Lag Seven" — le sette ritardatarie. Non è un disastro e non è una profezia. È una rotazione, e cambia qualcosa per i nostri portafogli. In questo episodio guardiamo cosa dicono davvero i dati, capiamo perché il vero protagonista non sono gli utili ma il free cash flow, e soprattutto: cosa significa tutto questo per chi ha un portafoglio market cap weighted — e come arrivare preparati se il mercato gira sul serio. Scopri The Bull Academy: il percorso pratico per mettere ordine nelle tue finanze, investire con metodo e costruire un portafoglio coerente con i tuoi obiettivi. (00:00) Le Big Tech stanno perdendo? (03:43) Perché l'AI divora la cassa (12:06) Siamo in una bolla degli utili? (17:46) Cosa fare con un ETF globale (27:02) Il tagliando al portafoglio Prodotto e distribuito da Corax.
With a major earnings season kicking off for the mega-cap tech names, an obscure volatility measure is pointing to a potential breakout — but the bar is sky-high and geopolitical headwinds are creating an unusually uncertain backdrop. How these earnings come in will likely determine whether the broader market can hold its current levels or breaks down.Today's Stocks & Topics: The Western Union Company (WU), Market Wrap, Danaher Corporation (DHR), Trump Imposes 50% Tariffs on Canadian, NIKE Inc. (NKE), Can the Magnificent Seven Earnings Hold the Market Up?, Cameco Corporation (CCJ), Cameco Corporation (CCJ)¸ Target Corporation (TGT), U.S. Oil.Our Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Plaud AI and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/invest for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
P.M. Edition for July 20. The Magnificent Seven have dominated the stock market for years. But now, as markets reporter Hannah Erin Lang discusses, there are signs that everyday investors are buying fewer shares of the megacap tech companies as they look to find the next big AI stock. Plus, a judge puts a temporary restraining order on the $81 billion merger of Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery. And how much coffee should you drink for a healthy heart? A new scientific statement from the American Heart Association has the answer… and it may be more than you think. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode, Scott Becker ranks the Magnificent Seven stocks by year-to-date performance, highlighting Apple’s surprising lead, strong gains from Alphabet, NVIDIA, and Amazon, and steep declines for Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta.
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is once again threatening the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, raising new concerns about gas prices, diesel costs, and the risk of global supply shortages.Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down why the situation in the Middle East remains so difficult to resolve, how refinery shutdowns in Russia, China, and the Persian Gulf are tightening supplies of gasoline and diesel, and why the U.S. may have limited options short of a major escalation. They also discuss the quiet earnings week ahead, why Alphabet's AI spending and delayed Gemini rollout matter for investors, how Waymo could become a bigger part of Google's future, whether retail investors are really moving beyond the Magnificent Seven, and why the World Cup delivered a major boost for Boston bars and local economies.
In this episode, Scott Becker ranks the Magnificent Seven stocks by year-to-date performance, highlighting Apple’s surprising lead, strong gains from Alphabet, NVIDIA, and Amazon, and steep declines for Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta.
Honderden miljarden dollars investeren in datacenters, taalmodellen of nieuwe AI-producten: het blijkt allemaal niet nodig om beleggers blij te krijgen. Meta, Alphabet, Amazon en Microsoft wisten niet hoeveel en hoe snel ze maar geld in hun producten moesten blijven pompen. Maar nu staat er één bedrijf ver boven hen. Apple vecht opeens weer om de titel van meest waardevolle beursbedrijf ter wereld. Een nek-aan-nek race met Nvidia. Wie wint 'm? En is dit het bewijs dat Apple het bij het rechte eind had en heeft? Dat hoor je in deze aflevering. Daarin hebben we het ook over nóg zo'n bedrijf dat volle bak in de investeringen is gevlogen. Meta bouwde als een gek datacenters om maar genoeg computerkracht voor hun modellen te hebben. En nu zitten ze met een overschot. De oplossing: het verhuren van die computerkracht. Ze zijn in onderhandeling met Anthropic om er 10 miljard dollar voor te krijgen. Verder hoor je over slechte cijfers van Ryanair. Laatst werd er nog bijna een passagier uit het raam gezogen, nu raken ze een paar beleggers definitief kwijt. Ondertussen loopt de topman van Boeing glimlachend over een beurs in het Verenigd Koninkrijk omdat hij de weg omhoog voor zijn bedrijf terug heeft gevonden. En we vertellen je over een persbureau, dat al over een beurswaarde van 1 biljoen dollar voor ASML droomt. Te gast: Arend Jan Kamp, van Stockwatch.nl en de podcast Het Beurscafé BNR Beurs is een journalistiek onafhankelijke productie, mede mogelijk gemaakt door Saxo. Over de makers: Jelle Maasbach is presentator van BNR Beurs en freelance financieel journalist. Zijn favoriete aandeel om over te praten is Disney, maar daar lijkt hij de enige in te zijn. Sinds de eerste uitzending van BNR Beurs is 'ie er bij. Maxim van Mil is presentator van BNR Beurs en journalist bij BNR, waar hij zich focust op de financiële markten en ontwikkelingen in de tech-wereld. Je krijgt hem het meest enthousiast als hij kan praten over ASML, of oer-Hollandse bedrijven zoals Ahold of ABN Amro. Jorik Simonides is presentator van BNR Beurs, economieredacteur en verslaggever bij BNR. Hij wordt er vooral blij van als het een keer níet over AI gaat. Je hoort hem ook in de BNR-podcast Moerdijk: dorp van de rekening. Milou Brand is presentator van BNR Beurs, freelance podcastmaker en columnist bij het Financieele Dagblad. Jochem Visser is presentator van BNR Beurs, maakt Beursnerd XL en is redacteur bij de podcast Onder Curatoren. Vraag hem naar obscure zaken op financiële markten en hij vertelt je waarom het eigenlijk nóg leuker is dan je al dacht. Over de podcast: Met BNR Beurs ga je altijd voorbereid de nieuwe beursdag in. We praten je in een kleine 25 minuten bij over alle laatste ontwikkelingen op de handelsvloer. We blijven niet alleen bij de AEX of Wall Street, maar vertellen je ook waar nog meer kansen liggen. En we houden het niet bij de cijfers, maar zoeken ook iedere dag voor je naar duiding van scherpe gasten en experts. Of je nu een ervaren belegger bent of net begint met je eerste stappen op de beurs, de podcast biedt waardevolle inzichten voor je beleggingsstrategie. Door de focus op zowel de korte termijn als de lange termijn, helpt BNR Beurs luisteraars om de ruis van de markt te scheiden van de essentie.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The S&P 500 is up about 10.2% this year. That average is hiding one of the most lopsided markets in a decade: energy up 28%, communication services negative, and the Magnificent Seven — the stocks that carried the market for three years — collectively underwater.In this week's Money On Tap, Ben Brayshaw and Dan Michelon go beyond the index, sector by sector. They walk the 2026 scoreboard — energy +28.1%, technology +26.8%, industrials +16%, with a 30-point gap between the top and bottom sectors — and unpack the year's most important story: the broadening of the market, with 46.3% of S&P companies now beating the index itself, up from 30.5% last year. Then the mechanics most investors never see: why seven stocks absorb a third of every dollar in a standard S&P fund, why the SPY and QQQ share 8–9 of their top 10 holdings, and why your "diversified" ETFs may be the same bundle of stocks in different wrappers. They close with the Fed's looming rate decision — hike odds jumped from 26% to 73% in one month — and the five durable themes they're watching for the second half.What you'll learn:The 2026 sector scoreboard: all 11 sectors ranked, from energy's +28.1% to communication services' −3.1%The broadening of the index: why 46.3% of S&P companies are beating the index — a decade-plus firstWhy the Mag Seven flipped from engine to anchor (Microsoft down 20%+), and what the index looks like without themThe ETF overlap trap: cap weighting, 35–55% in the top 10, and wrappers around the same stocksWhat a Fed rate hike would do to sector leadership — winners and losers under both scenariosBuffett's warning: "a church with a casino attached," and why down doesn't mean cheapThe dials for outperforming: sector weighting, security selection, valuation discipline, income, cash, and tax managementTaking gains on purpose: the sequence-of-returns lesson in 2026's −4.3% Q1 and +15.2% Q2Five second-half themes: electrification, defense, nuclear renaissance, the aging population, and the infrastructure rebuildPlus Money In The News:73% odds of a Fed rate hike by September — up from 26% just a month earlier — and the two culprits behind itWarren Buffett: it's tough to find value "when everybody is preferring gambling"Blockbuster stock sales — SpaceX's record $75B IPO, Alphabet's $85B raise, SK Hynix ADRs — and whether $500B of new equity can overwhelm the bull marketRead the companion blog: https://www.brayshawfinancial.com/blogSchedule a free consultation: https://app.greminders.com/t/9f3ce72e/initialconsultaBrowse the full Money On Tap library: https://www.brayshawfinancial.com/money-on-tapContact UsPhone: 855-226-8551Email: info@yourmoneyontap.comOffice: 116 South River Road, Bedford, NH 03110Web: brayshawfinancial.comSecurities and advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. All other services offered through Brayshaw Financial Group, LLC are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc. Index and sector performance figures are as of the air date and subject to change. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.If the S&P 500 is up 10%, why isn't my portfolio?Because the S&P 500 is cap-weighted: seven stocks absorb about a third of every dollar, and the top 10 holdings make up 35–55% of most S&P funds. In 2026 those mega-caps lagged — the Mag Seven are collectively negative — while sectors like energy (+28.1%) and technology (+26.8%) led. If your ETFs overlap in the same top names, you own the laggards several times over. The fix starts with knowing what you actually own.
On episode 251 of The Compound and Friends, Downtown Josh Brown and Sean Russo are joined by Jonathan Thomas, CEO of American Century Investments, to discuss: the remarkable rise of Avantis Investors, why active ETFs are gaining ground, what it takes to build investment products that can outperform without taking excessive risk, whether AI is creating an earnings bubble, why the market is broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven, and where the biggest long-term opportunities in AI may emerge. Plus, Jonathan shares the story behind American Century's ownership structure, which has directed billions of dollars toward cancer and genetic-disease research at the Stowers Institute for Medical Research—and takes us inside one of the most exclusive celebrity weddings imaginable. This episode is sponsored by Public and Vanguard. Visit https://public.com/compound to learn more. To learn more about Vanguard bonds, visit https://vanguard.com/audio Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out: thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Instagram: instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ TikTok: tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Public Disclosure: Paid for by Public Investing. Brokerage services by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC-registered adviser. Complete disclosures available at https://public.com/disclosures Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The market is recalibrating after a powerful AI-driven rally. Ben Bajarin of Creative Strategies explains why semiconductor and hardware stocks are cooling off and whether the Magnificent Seven can continue to carry the market. Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge makes the case that AI remains the defining investment theme despite the recent pullback. Ben Silverman of Propagate Content discusses the changing media landscape, Netflix's recent weakness and why live programming is becoming increasingly valuable. Our Eamon Javers reports on the close of the SEC's public comment period on proposed changes to quarterly reporting requirements. Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG explains why semiconductor charts have deteriorated while REITs are beginning to stand out on a technical basis. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Richard and Brian are back for this week's episode of Macro Aggressions. This episode breaks down the "Russian doll" problem sitting inside mega-cap tech earnings, why portfolio diversification may matter more now than it has in fifteen years, and what's happening beneath the surface of an S&P 500 that keeps hitting new highs. Richard Taylor of Plan First Wealth and Brian Dunhill of Dunhill Financial unpack Burry's concerns around private company valuations (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) sitting inside public company earnings, changes to GPU depreciation accounting that are quietly inflating profits, and why small cap stocks, emerging markets, and international stocks are starting to outperform after over a decade of US large-cap dominance. This is practical stock market advice for anyone wondering if their portfolio is over-concentrated in seven companies and whether now is the moment to start rebalancing. They also cover the diverging picture between the stock market and the real economy: sticky 4.2% inflation, weakening wage growth, and job losses under the current administration, set against a market still riding high on AI enthusiasm and a growing conversation around a potential market bubble. The conversation turns geopolitical, covering Europe's active effort to decouple from American tech infrastructure, why universities across Europe are pushing to get off US servers, and what that could mean long term for US-Europe relations and international wealth strategies. Richard and Brian also dig into the UK's ongoing political instability, the lasting economic impact of Brexit, and whether a new Labour leadership shift could change the UK's trajectory. Whether you're watching the Magnificent Seven dominate your portfolio, thinking about how UK politics and Brexit affect cross-border wealth, or just want a grounded read on where markets stand versus the economy, this episode covers the full picture, not just the headlines. -- Expat Wealth is supported by Plan First Wealth. Plan First Wealth is a Registered Investment Advisor serving fellow expatriates and immigrants living across the US on matters such as retirement planning, investment management, tax planning and non-US asset management. https://planfirstwealth.com/ -- Expat Wealth is affiliated with Plan First Wealth LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Plan First Wealth. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Plan First Wealth does not provide any tax and/or legal advice and strongly recommends that listeners seek their own advice in these areas.
Are the mega-caps officially a buy? We're breaking down the valuations, moats, and hidden risks for every Magnificent Seven stock. 00:42 Why Mag Seven Now 05:04 Market Benchmark Setup 05:38 Alphabet AI Optionality 13:40 Apple AI Strategy 21:10 Amazon AI Adjacent Case 35:18 Nvidia Expectations Shift 40:22 Index Fund vs Stock Pick 44:28 Meta Bear Case 51:34 Tesla Hype vs Reality 55:44 Microsoft Copilot Monetization 01:00:23 Portfolio Contest Callback 01:02:32 Buy or Short Mag 7 Companies mentioned: AMD, AMZN, AVGO, GOOG, GOOGL, INTC, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA Find where to listen & subscribe, portfolio contests, and contact information at https://investingunscripted.com ***************************************** To get 15% off any paid plan at fiscal.ai, visit https://fiscal.ai/unscripted Listen to the Chit Chat Stocks Podcast for discussions on stocks, financial markets, super investors, and more. Follow the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube ***************************************** Join our Patreon Subscribe to our portfolio on Savvy Trader. Use code Unscripted2026 for 30% off a one-year subscription! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
AI spending is still powering parts of the market, but IBM's warning raises a bigger question about whether companies can keep funding the boom without cutting elsewhere.Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti break down why a flood of stock and bond issuance is testing investor appetite, how IBM's earnings warning highlights the pressure AI spending is putting on older software and consulting businesses, and why hyperscalers may eventually need to prove that AI can replace labor rather than simply assist workers. They also discuss ASML's stronger outlook, why the Magnificent Seven have struggled despite earnings growth, what to watch for if data center spending slows, and Todd Lutsky's explanation of what the Medicaid application process really requires.
Charles Schwab's Nate Peterson explains the bearish case for the memory market and why Micron's (MU) performance could shape the industry's outlook. He also discusses Apple's (AAPL) partnerships with AI research labs to examine how advances in AI model compression could affect future memory demand. David also shares his outlook for the Magnificent Seven and what these developments could mean for investors.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Two Quants and a Financial Planner | Bridging the Worlds of Investing and Financial Planning
This week's Weekly Wrap examines whether weakening mega-cap leadership, massive AI capital spending, and record earnings expectations are creating hidden risks beneath the market.Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler compare Jim Paulsen's correction case, Katie Stockton's technical analysis, Jeff Klingelhofer's fixed-income view of AI debt, and Matt Zenz's evidence-based analysis of corporate investment.They discuss why semiconductors have replaced the Magnificent Seven as the market's narrowest leadership group, why healthy breadth can coexist with fading momentum, how roughly $600 billion in AI CapEx is influencing U.S. economic growth, and why excellent earnings momentum does not eliminate correction risk.Main topics covered• Jim Paulsen's case for a 10% to 20% correction without a recession or long-term bear market• Why S&P 500 technology was already 10% below its June high• How broader market leadership could outperform mega-cap technology• Katie Stockton on weakening Magnificent Seven momentum and narrow semiconductor leadership• The difference between market breadth, participation, and leadership• How roughly $600 billion of AI CapEx from four companies is supporting economic growth• Why heavy AI-related debt issuance may create attractive opportunities in high-quality bonds• How fixed-income investors evaluate AI spending differently from equity investors• Matt Zenz on asset growth, corporate investment, and the factor evidence around future returns• Why current mega-cap AI spending may not be extreme relative to company size• Why strong earnings momentum and optimistic analyst estimates can still precede market troubleTimestamps00:00 Four perspectives on technology, AI spending, and market leadership05:00 Technology is already down 10% and Paulsen's long-term bull case09:21 Katie Stockton on Magnificent Seven weakness and semiconductor leadership15:36 Jeff Klingelhofer on $600 billion of AI CapEx and the bond market20:13 Why high-quality AI debt may offer attractive yields24:25 Why mega-cap AI spending may not be extreme by factor standards29:09 Earnings momentum, earnings bubbles, and why strong fundamentals can precede troubleLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.
Jason Ware, Chief Investment Officer at Albion Financial Group, returns to break down one of the biggest shifts happening in the stock market today: the move away from the Magnificent Seven and toward AI infrastructure winners like Micron and other semiconductor companies. We discuss why memory stocks have become the hottest trade on Wall Street, whether hyperscalers are spending too much on AI, and what Microsoft's recent struggles really mean for investors. Jason also explains what he's watching heading into earnings season, why free cash flow matters more than ever, and how the new Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh could shape markets in the second half of the year.
Sign up for our wealth management webinar. It's free! Register now to reserve your place. https://events.bloombergevents.com/event/website/a95c1380-56d6-4d12-89a1-950bdf99d55a/landingPage Anthropic, Stripe and OpenAI are some of the world's most sought-after private companies. Maggie Fanari explains to host Merryn Somerset Webb how her team invests in them and firms like them before they reach public markets. Fanari is chief executive of J.Rothschild Capital Management, which manages the 4.5 billion pound ($6 billion) RIT Capital Partners trust. She shares why she believes the next wave of artificial intelligence could create a $60 trillion opportunity, why private markets are becoming increasingly important and where she sees the biggest investment opportunities over the next decade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% to 20% stock market correction. We discuss labor market weakness, the growing divide between technology and the broader economy, fading tech leadership, market complacency, bond yields and the demographic forces that could keep US growth and inflation lower for years.Jim also explains why he does not expect a recession or the end of the long-term bull market, but believes investors may need to reduce their concentration in AI and technology stocks as leadership quietly shifts toward the broader market.Jim Paulsen on Xhttps://x.com/jimwpaulsenPaulsen Perspectiveshttps://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/Main topics covered• Why Jim expects a 10% to 20% market correction without a recession• What zero job creation, declining full-time employment and rising unemployment reveal about the labor market• Why housing starts, real disposable income and GDP forecasts point to weaker economic growth• How higher Treasury yields, oil prices, a stronger dollar and slower money growth have tightened financial conditions• Why the economic damage from an oil shock often appears after oil prices peak• The widening earnings and economic divide between AI investment and the rest of the economy• What investor positioning, shrinking liquidity and low defensive exposure reveal about market complacency• Why strong earnings momentum does not eliminate the risk of a market decline• Evidence that technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven are losing market leadership• Why old economy sectors may outperform technology during the next stage of the bull market• How weak labor force growth could push economic growth, inflation and Treasury yields lower• Why demographics, immigration and productivity will shape the long-term US economic outlookTimestamps00:00 Why Jim Paulsen expects a 10% to 20% market correction04:32 The labor market weakness investors may be overlooking08:42 Housing, disposable income and GDP growth are deteriorating13:03 How tighter financial conditions could slow the economy17:09 Why oil shocks and the yield curve threaten earnings growth21:41 Investor complacency and the disconnect between markets and Main Street25:54 How today's AI boom differs from the dot-com bubble30:20 Defensive stocks reach an extreme last seen near major market tops34:36 Record earnings expectations, momentum and extreme valuations39:00 Technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven lose momentum43:00 The hidden market rotation from new era to old era stocks47:01 Why Jim expects Treasury yields to fall below 3%51:43 The demographic forces suppressing growth and inflation55:45 America's long-term growth challenge and what could change it
After years of dominance by the S&P 500 and the Magnificent Seven, investors are seeing renewed strength from small caps, international stocks, emerging markets, and value stocks.Paul Lane and Marc Fandetti break down why diversification is starting to matter again, how market leadership has shifted beyond the biggest U.S. tech names, and what 50 years of Dow Jones history shows about the difficulty of picking long-term winners. They also discuss SK Hynix's Wall Street debut, OpenAI's latest executive shakeup, concerns about U.S. AI models reaching Chinese tech companies, JPMorgan's AI-powered portfolio testing, SpaceX's quieter trading after its IPO, Paul LaMonica's take on National Beverage, and why Netflix may be moving closer to a cable-style streaming bundle.
In what may be our last quiz, ever, Tom turns the tables and puts Don in the hot seat with a Wall Street Journal high-school personal finance quiz—covering the Magnificent Seven, Roth IRAs, TIPS, efficient markets, yield curves, market risk, and dollar-cost averaging. Don does reasonably well, but not without protesting a dubious “debt avalanche” question and getting tangled up in a couple of accounting and risk terms. After the quiz-show nonsense, the guys tackle a listener question from Joseph in Pennsylvania: should your stock/bond allocation be based on a fixed percentage of your portfolio, or should it be driven by how many years of spending you want buffered in safer assets? Tom and Don explain why the answer depends on more than just income needs—it also depends on your emotional tolerance for volatility, your need for growth, and the role fixed income plays in helping you stay invested when markets get ugly.0:22 Tom becomes quizmaster and introduces the Wall Street Journal high-school personal finance quiz2:12 Question 1: Which stock is not part of the Magnificent Seven?3:47 Question 2: Which retirement account does not require withdrawals at a certain age?5:09 Question 3: TIPS, STRIPS, Series I bonds, and inflation-adjusted principal6:58 Question 4: Debt payoff strategies and the disputed “debt avalanche” answer9:13 Question 5: Efficient market hypothesis10:12 Question 6: What an inverted/downward-sloping yield curve says about future rates11:25 Question 7: Return on equity math and a heavily leveraged company12:56 Question 8: What it means when net present value equals zero14:44 Question 9: Why putting your emergency fund in stocks creates market risk16:52 Question 10: Unsystematic risk versus broad market risk18:57 Question 11: Dollar-cost averaging20:06 Tom and Don wrap up the quiz and revisit the “debt avalanche” controversy21:11 Listener question from Joseph in State College, Pennsylvania21:34 Should bond allocation be based on a fixed percentage or on years of spending?22:07 Risk tolerance vs. risk profile: why income needs are only part of the equation23:26 Why a 5-year spending buffer in safer assets can make sense in retirement24:13 The emotional role of bonds and fixed income during market declinesQuestions? Comments? Click!
It's Q&A Wednesday, and Lance Roberts examines whether the momentum-driven rally in semiconductors can continue, how the Iran cease-fire breakdown could affect markets, and what investors should watch ahead of the FOMC decision. We also answer your questions on the differences between the NASDAQ VIX and S&P VIX, whether government policies continue to support elevated real estate prices, investing in Canadian companies through IRAs, the implications of a yield curve un-inversion, portfolio rebalancing strategies, dollar-cost averaging, maintaining the right cash allocation, the rise of inverse ETFs tied to the Magnificent Seven, recent SEC rule changes, and the lawsuit challenging NASDAQ's handling of the proposed SpaceX listing. We also discuss technology versus semiconductor sector leadership and why electricity demand and long-term power contracts are becoming increasingly important investment themes. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - FOMC Meeting Preview - Iran Cease Fire is Done 5:00 - Consolidation Range Continues; Momentum Trade in mostly Semi-conductors 6:58 - Risks from Iran Action 11:34 - Fight to the death & swats in school 14:11 - NASDAQ VIX vs S&P VIX 16:07 - How much of Real Estate prices are supported by Govt.? 17:04 - Canadian Companies in IRA's? 19:12 - Yield Curve inversion & un-inversions & Risk of Recession 26:13 - Mistakes with Cash in Investing (Cash = Opportunity) 29:17 - The Problem with Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) 33:03 - Criteria for Rebalancing Portfolio 38:17 - Mag-7 Inverse ETF 39:42 - SEC Rule Changes 44:54 - The Cash Cushion Has Never Been Thinner 46:13 - Technology vs Semi-conductors as sectors 47:11 - Lawsuit against NASDAQ for fast-tracking Space-X 47:43 - Electricity Contracts Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ua-paCoNRwo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Momentum Cracks, But Markets Hold" https://youtu.be/nO2N4bdLifo ------- Watch our previous show, "Could You Spot a Ponzi Scam?" https://youtube.com/live/36xwcnfxPa0 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Margin Debt Risk: The Ratios That Mislead Investors," https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/margin-debt-risk-the-ratios-that-mislead-investors/ "Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/wage-growth-as-a-leading-inflation-indicator/ "Mag 7 Stocks: Risk Or Opportunity In The Making?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/mag-7-stocks-risk-or-opportunity-in-the-making/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee, "Narrative Busters: Market Stories Investors Should Approach With Caution," Saturday, July 18, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/RfJtCj2byfDr --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #Investing #Semiconductors #BeforeTheBell #FederalReserve #RetirementPlanning #FinancialPlanning
It's Q&A Wednesday, and Lance Roberts examines whether the momentum-driven rally in semiconductors can continue, how the Iran cease-fire breakdown could affect markets, and what investors should watch ahead of the FOMC decision. We also answer your questions on the differences between the NASDAQ VIX and S&P VIX, whether government policies continue to support elevated real estate prices, investing in Canadian companies through IRAs, the implications of a yield curve un-inversion, portfolio rebalancing strategies, dollar-cost averaging, maintaining the right cash allocation, the rise of inverse ETFs tied to the Magnificent Seven, recent SEC rule changes, and the lawsuit challenging NASDAQ's handling of the proposed SpaceX listing. We also discuss technology versus semiconductor sector leadership and why electricity demand and long-term power contracts are becoming increasingly important investment themes. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - FOMC Meeting Preview - Iran Cease Fire is Done 5:00 - Consolidation Range Continues; Momentum Trade in mostly Semi-conductors 6:58 - Risks from Iran Action 11:34 - Fight to the death & swats in school 14:11 - NASDAQ VIX vs S&P VIX 16:07 - How much of Real Estate prices are supported by Govt.? 17:04 - Canadian Companies in IRA's? 19:12 - Yield Curve inversion & un-inversions & Risk of Recession 26:13 - Mistakes with Cash in Investing (Cash = Opportunity) 29:17 - The Problem with Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) 33:03 - Criteria for Rebalancing Portfolio 38:17 - Mag-7 Inverse ETF 39:42 - SEC Rule Changes 44:54 - The Cash Cushion Has Never Been Thinner 46:13 - Technology vs Semi-conductors as sectors 47:11 - Lawsuit against NASDAQ for fast-tracking Space-X 47:43 - Electricity Contracts Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ua-paCoNRwo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Momentum Cracks, But Markets Hold" https://youtu.be/nO2N4bdLifo ------- Watch our previous show, "Could You Spot a Ponzi Scam?" https://youtube.com/live/36xwcnfxPa0 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Margin Debt Risk: The Ratios That Mislead Investors," https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/margin-debt-risk-the-ratios-that-mislead-investors/ "Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/wage-growth-as-a-leading-inflation-indicator/ "Mag 7 Stocks: Risk Or Opportunity In The Making?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/mag-7-stocks-risk-or-opportunity-in-the-making/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee, "Narrative Busters: Market Stories Investors Should Approach With Caution," Saturday, July 18, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/RfJtCj2byfDr --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #Investing #Semiconductors #BeforeTheBell #FederalReserve #RetirementPlanning #FinancialPlanning
On this episode of Simply Money presented by Allworth Financial, Bob and Brian break down why the "Magnificent Seven" may no longer be the biggest winners in the AI boom, what SpaceX joining the Nasdaq 100 could mean for investors, and Jersey Mike's plans to go public. They also discuss how to filter out financial noise, review common life and disability insurance gaps for high-income professionals, answer listener questions on Roth conversions, helping adult children buy a home, and investing an inheritance, and wrap up with timeless money lessons from America's Founding Fathers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Magnificent Seven powered much of the market's gains over the last several years, but this year's rally is being driven by a broader group of companies tied to the AI infrastructure boom.Paul Lane and Marc Fandetti break down why the biggest tech stocks have lost some of their market leadership, how companies like Micron and other chip suppliers are now carrying more of the AI trade, and why investors are watching to see whether major tech firms will keep spending aggressively on data centers and computing power. They also discuss rising inflation expectations, why Kevin Warsh's credibility matters for the Federal Reserve, how elevated valuations could leave markets vulnerable, what the K-shaped economy says about consumer spending, and why robotaxis still face a difficult path to broader adoption.
This week, Phil discusses the spillover effects of AI on market performance beyond the Magnificent Seven, along with the World Cup and the celebration of America's 250th anniversary.
America is in the middle of something extraordinary, and most people are not paying attention. Since 2021, Americans have filed more than 20 million new business applications. In 2024 alone, the U.S. averaged roughly 430,000 new business applications per month, which is approximately 50% above pre-pandemic levels. This is not opinion. This is data, and it points to one of the most powerful entrepreneurial movements in modern history. The rise of AI has supercharged this momentum, giving individuals the kind of leverage that once required entire departments, massive budgets, and large technical teams. A new class of economic person has emerged, the creator capitalist, someone who turns expertise, judgment, and intellectual capital into scalable value. And nowhere on earth is this happening faster or more powerfully than in America. You're listening to Christopher Lochhead: Follow Your Different. We are the real dialogue podcast for people with a different mind. So get your mind in a different place, and hey ho, let's go. America’s Culture of Building Is Its Greatest Asset America became the dominant economic power because generation after generation of people who grew up here or came here believed they could create a different future. From Ford and Disney to Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, and OpenAI, this country has repeatedly produced environments where entrepreneurs become category kings. The entire Magnificent Seven are American companies, and the next wave of defining businesses are American too. The United States currently has over 600 unicorn companies, defined as businesses worth one billion dollars or more. Europe, which has a larger population, has roughly 130 to 140. That is not a small difference. That is a civilization-level gap, and it is a direct result of America’s cultural commitment to honoring the people who build things. The Divergence Between America and the Rest of the Western World While America accelerates, much of the Western world is moving in the opposite direction. Canada has seen business formation growth slow to almost nothing. The United Kingdom saw company starts decline 10% year over year. Germany continues to struggle with startup velocity relative to its economic size. Across too many countries, there is a growing cultural hostility toward success, where entrepreneurs are treated as suspects rather than builders of the future. This matters deeply because entrepreneurship is not merely economic. It is emotional, cultural, and civilizational. Every new company started is a radical act of optimism. Societies that respect ambition attract ambitious people. Societies that punish risk-taking and vilify wealth creation are essentially opting out of the future, whether they realize it or not. The divergence between America and these economies is not subtle. It is stark and it is accelerating. Why Experienced Professionals Are the Biggest Winners of This Moment Most people assume the biggest winners of the AI era will be 22-year-olds in hoodies. The reality is far more interesting. The average age of a startup founder is in the mid to late 40s. The people with 20 or more years of accumulated experience, pattern recognition, relationships, and hard-won judgment are uniquely positioned to thrive right now. AI is exceptional at commoditizing existing knowledge, but it cannot replicate the intellectual capital that comes from broken bones and lived experience. AI is collapsing the barriers that once kept experienced executives locked inside large organizations. Previously, you needed big teams, expensive infrastructure, and massive capital. Today, those barriers are disappearing. What remains is what experienced professionals already have, their four capitals: intellectual capital, relationship capital, reputation capital, and financial capital. America is not just creating new startups. It is creating a new generation of people who believe they can design entirely different futures for themselves, their customers, their communities, and yes, sometimes even the world. To hear more from Christopher Lochhead and his thoughts about America in its 250th year of Independence, download and listen to this episode. We hope you enjoyed this episode of Christopher Lochhead: Follow Your Different™! Christopher loves hearing from his listeners. Feel free to email him, connect on Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), LinkedIn, and subscribe on Apple Podcast / Spotify!
Happy 250th! The bulls are bubbling up! Yentervention – it is a thing. Labor market predictions. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - 250 Years! - We have the scorecard - Bulls are on the loose! - Kevin Hassett - what a putz - RAM JOB! Markets - Google's first day in the DJIA - a good one - SpaceX bonds already losing -Yen slips to 1986 levels - Yentervention? WHAT A PUTZ! - Trump Accounts launch July 4, with the NYSE and Nasdaq set to ring the opening bell from the Oval Office. - Program gives a $1,000 Treasury-funded investment account to U.S. children born from January 1, 2025 through December 31, 2028. - Kids under 18 can have accounts, but only newborns in that four-year window get the federal seed money. - Parents, family, employers, nonprofits, and governments can add money, with a general $5,000 annual contribution cap. - Money is invested in index funds and generally locked up until the child reaches adulthood. - Kevin Hassett pitched it as a way to teach kids about markets, ownership, saving, and compounding. His argument is that the more young people get exposed to investing early, and market ownership becomes less of an upper-income club. - However - > the government is handing out taxpayer-funded brokerage seed money while selling it as capitalism. - Also odd: the benefit may skew toward families who already know how to file forms, open accounts, and add more money. - So basically it is a forced financial-literacy experiment wrapped in a political brand name, with a socialist starter check to teach capitalism. First-Half Winners and Losers - S&P 500 finished the first half up roughly 7% to 8%, with the rally led by AI hardware, chips, memory, and data-center infrastructure. - Biggest winners were the shovel sellers: Sandisk up about 780%, Micron up about 296%, Western Digital up about 240%, Seagate up about 226%. - Overseas AI hardware ripped too: South Korea's Kospi up 123%, helped by Samsung up 169% and SK Hynix up 303%. - Semiconductor ETFs had a monster Q2: iShares Semiconductor ETF up 86.8%, VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 64.8%. - Japan's Nikkei rose about 38%; FTSE 100 gained about 5.8%. - Losers were the software/platform names that could not prove immediate AI payoff. - Microsoft was down about 24% despite being one of the biggest AI spenders. - Momentum stocks had one of their worst stretches in two decades as the Magnificent Seven slipped on capex worries. - Crypto and gold also lagged the AI-infrastructure trade. - Equity BULLS are running like it was San Fermin, Spain... MORE.... - Gold biggest quarterly loss since 2013 - Japan best quarter ever - Oil starts and ends - Kospi best quarter in 30 years - Stoxx 600 best Q in 5 years Something is going to break! - When Micro announced earnings, and we see that companies are panicking (News about existential threat to smaller tech players).. We said something is going to break - MU shares lifted to ATH on the news - big big beat - Micron's latest quarter showed a dramatic acceleration from the year-ago period, with revenue rising from $9,301 to $41,460 and EPS increasing from $1.91 to $25.11. - HUGE uptick in guidance - Apple increased pricing, Dell is increasing prices next week (17%), Microsoft raised price on XBox, HP across the board increase, Lenovo/Xiaomi increases, - NOW: Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from China's ChangXin Memory Technologies Korea Goes All-In On AI Memory - Samsung and SK Hynix are backing a huge South Korea chip buildout tied to AI memory, HBM, advanced DRAM, packaging and data centers. - Samsung's plan includes hundreds of trillions of won for new fabs, including HBM facilities in Cheonan and Onyang. - SK Hynix is expanding Yongin and planning a major new chip base as it rides demand from Nvidia-linked HBM supply. - Government angle: Seoul wants domestic chip capacity treated like national infrastructure, not just corporate capex. - The state is trying to lock in supply-chain control before China, Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. pull more production into their own subsidy zones. - Market wrinkle: AI memory is hot now, but memory companies have a long history of overbuilding into strong pricing cycles. - Governments are no longer just subsidizing chips — they are helping plan semiconductor cities. RAM Job? - Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron were hit with a U.S. antitrust class-action lawsuit over alleged DRAM price fixing. - Allegation: the big three coordinated supply cuts while shifting capacity away from regular DDR3/DDR4 memory and into high-bandwidth memory for AI servers. - Plaintiffs say the three companies control roughly 90% of the DRAM market. - Conventional DRAM prices allegedly jumped about 700% over four years. - Complaint argues that in a normal commodity market, at least one supplier would usually increase production when prices spike. - Instead, the lawsuit says all three moved in the same direction at the same time. DRAM: We Have Seen This Movie Before - Yes, there was a similar DRAM price-fixing scandal in the 2000s. - DOJ investigation covered alleged DRAM price fixing from roughly 1998 through 2002. - Hynix pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $185 million criminal fine. - Samsung pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $300 million criminal fine. - Infineon pleaded guilty earlier, in 2004, and agreed to pay a $160 million fine. - Micron was involved in the investigation but received amnesty/cooperation treatment rather than the same criminal fine path. - Several executives were also charged or pleaded guilty. - State AGs and private plaintiffs later pursued civil cases tied to overpayment claims. - Difference now: the new case is not yet proven and appears focused on alleged coordinated supply restriction during the AI/HBM boom. Chevron and Microsoft - Chevron Corp signed 20-year deal with Microsoft for data center power. - Agreement supplies natural-gas fired generation for massive West Texas facility. - Project Kilby expected online 2028, ramping to 2.67 gigawatts. - Full output enough to power more than 530,000 Texas homes. - Chevron partnering Engine No. 1, final investment decision planned later. - Deal follows prior reports of exclusive long-term power negotiations. More Oil News - Drill baby Drill - Interior Department cutting federal drilling bonds by 95% to spur exploration. - Required bond drops from $500,000 to $25,000 for leases. - Bonds ensure cleanup costs don't fall on taxpayers if wells abandoned. - Policy change aims to encourage more oil and gas development. - Proposal subject to 60-day public comment after Federal Register publication. Dow 52,000 and the Tech Bounce - Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time Monday, finishing at 52,182.74. - S&P 500 gained 1.18%; Nasdaq jumped 2.07%. - S&P and Nasdaq snapped five-session losing streaks. - Alphabet rose 4.8% on its first day as a Dow component. - Tesla gained 8.5%; SpaceX rose more than 7%. - The bounce came after last week's tech selloff, with investors rotating back into mega-cap and AI names. Comcast Breaks Itself Up - Comcast plans to split media and connectivity into two separate companies. - NBCUniversal and Sky would be spun off in a tax-free deal; Comcast keeps broadband, wireless, and cable. - Completion expected within a year. - Shareholders would own both Comcast and the new NBCUniversal. - Comcast shares rose on the news; Charter also jumped as investors speculated Comcast could eventually pursue a broadband-scale deal. AI Trade Gets a Warning Label - Bank for International Settlements flagged the AI boom as a financial-stability risk. - The main concerns: elevated valuations, investor complacency, complex funding structures, and debt financing across the AI supply chain. - BIS also warned that record public debt and leveraged hedge-fund activity in sovereign bonds could amplify shocks. - Quote from BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos: "Policy actions must reinforce each other." - The interesting part: central bankers are not saying AI is fake; they are saying the financing stack may be fragile. Inflation Back Above 4% - BEA's PCE price index rose 4.1% year over year in May. - April was 3.8%; March was 3.5%; February was 2.9%. - This keeps pressure on the Fed because PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. - Core PCE may later be revised lower because of BEA methodology changes. - Goldman estimated May core PCE could be trimmed to 3.2% from 3.4%; JPMorgan expected 3.3%. - Funny-but-real detail: part of the potential revision comes from how BEA prices portfolio management, legal services, and computer software. Jobs Report Becomes Bad-News-Is-Bad-News - June payrolls are due Thursday because markets are closed Friday for Independence Day. - The setup is awkward: strong jobs could mean stronger economy, but also higher odds of Fed hikes. - Looking back - May payrolls were hot at 172,000 versus an 85,000 forecast, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. - Remember - after the June Fed meeting, policymakers were clearly focused on inflation, not rescue cuts. Oil, Iran, and the Market's New Weird Routine - Oil stayed volatile around renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and peace-talk headlines. - Brent rose 1.6% Monday to $73.15; WTI rose 2.2% to $70.75. - Markets rallied anyway, helped by signs talks would resume and shipping routes were stabilizing. - The odd market behavior: geopolitical escalation keeps getting followed by de-escalation headlines and risk-on rallies. - This is now part of the trading pattern: weekend war scare, Monday relief rally, repeat. --- New attacks by USA on Iran happened at approx 4:30PM on Friday (markets closed) and then a halt to the fighting on Sunday - before the futures opened. Odd : Wendy's Becomes a Meme Stock - Wendy's became the latest retail-trader short-squeeze target. - Stock surged 25% last Wednesday, then gained another 9% Thursday. - Barron's said the move followed a CFO shakeup and WallStreetBets attention. - New CFO Steve Cirulis came from Potbelly and is also taking the Chief Strategy Officer title. - Wendy's had fallen 47% over the past year before the rally. - Short interest was nearly 30% of the public float, making the stock easier to squeeze. - Trian, Nelson Peltz's firm, owned nearly 15 million shares valued around $93 million. SpaceX Bonds Slip After Big Debut - SpaceX sold $25 billion of investment-grade bonds, its first major public debt deal. - Demand was huge, with roughly $85 billion to $98 billion of orders. - The 10-year tranche priced about 1.4 percentage points over Treasurys. - Bonds weakened quickly after pricing. - The 10-year yield rose near 6%, with the spread moving above 1.6 percentage points. - Longer-dated 2046 and 2056 bonds took the most pressure. - The pushback: bond buyers want more yield for a company still funding rockets, Starlink, AI/data-center spending, and Mars ambitions. - Clean read: equity investors bought the story; bond investors immediately marked it down. Yentervention - Yen weakened again, pushing toward the 162-per-dollar zone and near its weakest level in about 40 years. - Japan keeps warning it is ready for "decisive action" or to respond "at any time." - Market does not seem scared for long. - Japan already spent heavily defending the yen, including a roughly $73 billion yen-buying operation after the currency broke past 160. - U.S. rates are still high, the Fed is not rushing to cut, and the Bank of Japan is still moving slowly. - That keeps the carry trade alive: borrow cheap yen, buy higher-yielding dollars. - Japan's foreign reserves fell 5.6% in May after intervention, showing the defense is expensive. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? 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Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about: Micron earnings, the sudden selloff in South Korea's red-hot stock market, whether we're entering the late stages of the bull market, prediction markets coming to Wall Street, Jane Street's AI ambitions, the Magnificent Seven breakdown, Alan Greenspan's legacy, and the growing bull case for Meta. This episode is sponsored by Neuberger and ClearBridge Investments. Explore NBSD–including all risks and important information–at https://www.neuberger.com/nbsd Rising geopolitical tensions, continued market uncertainty, stocks backed by can offer more predictable cash flows as volatility increases. Visit https://www.clearbridge.com/ to learn more. Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out! Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices