ReSolve's 12 days of Investment Wisdom

How we can prepare for every investment scenario. We discuss: Risk Parity and Futures Markets Leverage and Value Diversification Outsourcing Expertise Integrating Asset Classes to Maximize Returns Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

How can we manage for scenarios when Liquidity evaporates? We discuss: The mechanics of a Liquidity Shock The Fed and the Long Volatility Gap Diversification, Tail Hedge Protection and Theta Bleed Dennis Rodman and the Long Vol Trade Yield, Growth and Inflation Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

How can we move from Factor Beta to Alpha? We discuss: Swensen, Yale and aligning incentives The cycles of factor investing Machine learning, the Bias/Variance trade off and Alpha Ensembles Sustainable Alpha through continuous Innovation Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

What additional Sleeves can we add to maximize diversity? We discuss: Style premia, factors, smart beta – the benefits and risks Efficient negative Sharpe ratios Redemptions and “noise traders” Larry Swedroe and anomalies Value characteristics and correlations Flows and Arbitrage opportunities Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

How do we eat Sharpe ratio and meet financial goals with a maximally diversified portfolio? We discuss: Using leverage in a robust and diversified portfolio to preserve diversification while achieving target returns Why “credit” is not a distinct asset class and does not increase diversity Integrating your bets The repercussions of levering up What makes Risk Parity hard Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

Traditional yields are low, so how do we meet our funding obligations? We discuss: Rebalancing highly diversified portfolios to generate 3%-5% in excess returns The Diversification Ratio and maximally diversified portfolios The increased value of maximally diversified commodity sleeves Special advantages for non-institutional investors Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

Diversity of investments only produces “diversification” if asset classes are held in proper balance. We discuss: The 60/40 portfolio and why it's not diversified or risk-balanced The advantages of Global Risk Parity Portfolios How leverage helps to preserve diversification Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

Investors are often prone to “home-country” equity bias and other heuristics that leave them under-exposed to the world's many diverse opportunities. We discuss: The importance of global asset class diversity Ray Dalio and the “All Weather Portfolio” Making portfolios resistant to inflation and growth shocks Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

Philip Tetlock's research on the qualities of Super-forecasters explains why forecasting is hard and how diverse models and systematic thinking can help close the gap. We discuss: Improving predictions by regularly updating data The Brier Score and why it really matters Why larger samples permit more accurate short term predictions The difficulties with the “Long Now” narrative Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

Anyone who is responsible for stewarding wealth, from a high net worth person, to a family office, to an investment firm, to a pension plan. We discuss: Long term preservation of wealth for 30, 50, 100 years Building an investment “house” to weather all storms The difference between earning wealth and protecting it long term Clearing the “high confidence” bar Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

The team has spent the last 11 episodes discussing the importance of asset allocation; the role of systematic “factor” tilts like momentum, value and trend; and how portfolio optimization can act as a force multiplier on long-term performance. This episode comes full circle by integrating all of the concepts described thus far: Asset Allocation, Risk Balance, Ensemble Methods, Portfolio Optimization and Factor investing, using multi-asset momentum as a case study for this integration. The team also discusses the importance of process diversification in terms of how to select an optimal multi-asset investment universe; diverse measures of momentum; different methods of portfolio optimization; and holding period diversification. A fitting conclusion to the 12 Days of Wisdom series, this is one that listeners will not want to miss! Whitepaper: http://www.investresolve.com/adaptive-asset-allocation/ Articles: https://investresolve.com/blog/dynamic-asset-allocation-for-practitioners-part-1-universe-selection/ https://investresolve.com/blog/dynamic-asset-allocation-for-practitioners-part-2-the-many-faces-of-price-momentum/ https://investresolve.com/blog/dynamic-asset-allocation-for-practitioners-part-3-risk-adjusted-momentum/ https://investresolve.com/blog/dynamic-asset-allocation-for-practitioners-part-4-momentum-weighting/ https://investresolve.com/blog/same-same-but-different/ https://investresolve.com/blog/dynamic-asset-allocation-for-practitioners-part-2-the-many-faces-of-price-momentum/ https://investresolve.com/blog/dynamic-asset-allocation-for-practitioners-part-3-risk-adjusted-momentum/ https://investresolve.com/blog/dynamic-asset-allocation-for-practitioners-part-4-momentum-weighting/ https://investresolve.com/blog/same-same-but-different/

In our second-to-last episode, ReSolve’s newest partner Jason Russell is joining us to share his wisdom on one of the most misunderstood strategies out there. While many investors are aware of the solid returns a simple trend following approach can produce, it is the ability to select from a wide universe of uncorrelated asset-classes (especially currencies and commodities) and to use multiple signals that offer the greatest benefits. These ensemble methods truly maximize the ability to harvest the trend (and any other) premium and add a significant Sharpe ‘bonus’ to portfolios. Reference: https://investresolve.com/blog/diversification-what-most-novice-investors-miss-about-trend-following/

The Lords of finance have somehow convinced investors that “simple” always beats “complex” in markets. But this is rubbish. The fact is that every portfolio formation – even the so-called ‘passive portfolio’ - expresses very active beliefs about how markets function, and the relationships between risk and return. It’s critical to understand these relationships in order to choose the optimal method of portfolio construction. Many common techniques such as market cap and equal weighting are profoundly sub-optimal in practice! In this episode, we discuss ReSolve’s portfolio optimization article series and describe why appropriate portfolio optimization can act as a powerful force-multiplier on long-term performance. Whitepaper: https://investresolve.com/portfolio-optimization-general-framework-lp/ Articles: https://investresolve.com/blog/portfolio-optimization-simple-optimal-methods/ https://investresolve.com/blog/portfolio-optimization-case-study-managed-futures/

So far, we have been discussing a variety of ways to build portfolios and harvest returns, but we haven’t really addressed a fundamental aspect of how we think about portfolio construction. Even though most of us like to think that we will rise to the occasion in the face of a challenge, the reality is that we will most likely sink to the level of our training during those difficult times. In the world of investing, that ‘training’ can be thought of as establishing sound, economically viable and time-tested rules when things are calm (and emotions are in check) and executing them relentlessly through thick and thin. On this 9th day, we get down to what it really means to be a systematic investor. Reference: https://investresolve.com/blog/dynamic-asset-allocation-for-practitioners-part-2-the-many-faces-of-price-momentum/ https://investresolve.com/blog/same-same-but-different/

Some of the ideas discussed in the last few episodes may raise a few eye-brows, as they force advisors and investors to venture outside of their comfort zones. But consider the alternative. At current valuation levels, US equities and bonds are unlikely to deliver meaningful (or even positive) returns in the coming years. What do we propose? Go global and let go of home-country bias. Diversify across asset-classes, factors and strategies. Embrace tracking-error. The key message on this 8th day is: get comfortable with being uncomfortable. Reference: https://investresolve.com/blog/get-comfortable-with-being-uncomfortable-part-1-valuations/ https://investresolve.com/blog/get-comfortable-uncomfortable-part-2-maximum-diversification/ https://investresolve.com/blog/get-comfortable-with-being-uncomfortable-factor-investing/

And on the 7th day, the Meta Portfolio was created. After analyzing the many sources of return across major global asset classes, we now focus on how to implement different strategies and the most thoughtful way of putting those pieces together. When advisors and investors consider adding liquid alternative strategies to their usual combination of stocks and bonds, it usually represents between 10% and 20% of their overall allocation. But if we really want this sleeve to provide meaningful, differentiated performance to our portfolio, we need to think about capital efficiency. Reference: https://investresolve.com/blog/capital-efficiency-trumps-fees/ https://www.rcmalternatives.com/2018/04/three-alternative-funds-walk-into-a-bar/

While we have played defense with concepts such as equal risk contribution, which help avoid big losses and mitigate sequence of returns risk, it’s time to play some offense. As we seek to compound our portfolios in the highest possible number of positive rolling periods, we need to better understand where returns are really coming from and how sustainable than can be. On this 6th day, we will investigate the many ways to harvest excess returns from investment factors (also known as style premia), and how to avoid being specifically wrong in your approach. Reference: https://investresolve.com/blog/active-passive-factors/ https://investresolve.com/blog/factors-essential-part-nutritious-portfolio/

After creating a theoretical framework with an almost obsessive focus on diversification and risk-adjusted returns, we bring you case studies of global asset classes throughout history that will demonstrate the importance of not depending on (often lucky) predictions. As we invest over the next few decades, we should aim to protect our sequence of positive returns by preventing the “maniacs from taking over the asylum”. This is where the rubber begins to meet the road. Welcome to Day 5. Reference: https://investresolve.com/blog/path-dependency-financial-planning-retirement-edition/

On our fourth day, we add yet another layer of diversity onto our building blocks. While diversity across global asset-classes is a useful first step, there are other aspects of the portfolio construction and rebalancing processes that can push the diversification boundaries even further and help improve risk-adjusted performance. As described in our popular “Buffet Bet” blog post, these well-known factors (or ‘smart Betas’) can provide further uncorrelated return drivers to help smoothen the long-term path of invested capital. Reference: https://investresolve.com/blog/resolves-buffett-bet-portfolio-risk-parity-and-factors/https://investresolve.com/blog/active-passive-factors/

Now that we have established an ideal investment arena and the benefits of maximizing portfolio diversity, we can use these building blocks to dig a little deeper into the fundamental reasons why global asset classes are able to provide significant diversification opportunities for investors in the coming years. We all know that economies and markets across the world exist as a function of the fundamental drivers of inflation and growth, and the interactions of governments, companies and individuals throughout their cycles. By understanding how each asset-class behaves throughout the four economic regimes, investors will not need to rely on predictions to thrive in most market environment. Welcome to Day 3.  Reference: https://investresolve.com/blog/global-passive-benchmark-etf-factor-tilt/

In episode one we described an investment arena that is likely to provide the best long-term opportunities. On this second day, we lay out the case for giving as much (or more) credence to portfolio diversification opportunities as is given to a strategy’s investment edge. We believe investors should always seek the highest compensation for the risks they are willing to incur. In other words, their objective should be, as much as possible, to get the most bang (return) for their buck (risk). It can be useful to think of this risk-adjust return (or Sharpe Ratio) as a function of (1) an investor’s skill in generating consistent returns and (2) the amount of true diversification available in the investment universe at their disposal. We believe this second point is the most widely-overlooked aspect of portfolio construction, and we seek to remedy this today. Reference: https://investresolve.com/blog/the-case-for-tactical-alpha-part-1-the-fundamental-law-of-active-management/ https://investresolve.com/blog/the-case-for-tactical-alpha-part-2-the-fundamental-flaw-of-grinolds-fundamental-law/ https://investresolve.com/blog/the-case-for-tactical-alpha-part-3-the-greatest-trick-wall-street-ever-pulled/

On the first day of this series, we answer a pivotal question that every investor should ask themselves before embarking on their investment journey: where should you dedicate most of your energy and focus, asset allocation or security selection? We review how the biggest impact to portfolios comes from asset classes rather than individual securities. We also expand on how the largest pools of capital may lack the portfolio agility and mandate flexibility to take full advantage of the excess returns available in the asset allocation arena. This reality tends to generate better and more sustainable long-term opportunities for smaller, unconstrained players to deploy nimble and adaptive investment strategies. Reference: https://investresolve.com/importance-asset-allocation-vs-security-selection/