Podcast appearances and mentions of philip tetlock

Whether it's the 1903 New York Times article that claimed a flying machine was ten million years away, or the record executive who (allegedly) told the Beatles in the early 1960s that guitar bands were on the way out, predictions are hard.In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart discuss the psychologist Philip Tetlock's research on superforecasters, the people who make the most accurate predictions of all. Even if you can't become a superforecaster yourself, it turns out there's a lot we can learn from them about how to form beliefs—and how to be right more often.The Studies Show is brought to you by Works in Progress magazine, where this week Tom has written a review of the new book, Doctored, about fraud in Alzheimer's research. Read that and many other short pieces on the Works in Progress Substack at worksinprogress.news.Show notes* A book chapter on the “Expert Political Judgement” study from Philip Tetlock* Research on how people interpret terms like “a serious possibility” and “likely”* Research that argues against the idea that teaming up makes superforecasters better* Study on the correlates of being a good superforecaster (i.e. having a low Brier score)* A paper on “small steps to accuracy”: how people who update their beliefs more often are better forecasters* Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner's book Superforecasting* Julia Galef's book The Scout Mindset* Tom's book, Everything is Predictable* Tom's review of Mervyn King's book, Radical UncertaintyCreditsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:09: Saul Munn 1:26: David Glidden 1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 6:54: Interview with Glidden begins 13:32: Importance of building forecasting community 14:39: Effective altruism 22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 24:49: Sports betting 40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid. Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.

Les experts échouent souvent à prédire l'avenir, malgré leurs connaissances approfondies. Dans cette vidéo, nous explorons pourquoi les prévisions des experts sont souvent moins fiables que celles des amateurs informés. En nous basant sur les travaux de Philip Tetlock, nous démystifions les erreurs courantes des experts et analysons les facteurs psychologiques et méthodologiques qui les conduisent à se tromper. Découvrez les limitations des prédictions d'experts et comment vous pouvez, en tant qu'amateur, faire des prévisions tout aussi précises.

Imagine being faced with the daunting task of predicting the future with nothing but incomplete information and a handful of hunches. Perhaps you're considering new experiences, like travel or moving to a different town. When I imagined quitting my job, I envisioned a happier world, free from the perceived burden of corporate work. In the following months, however, my expectations were shattered upon realizing that I still largely felt the same despite my newfound freedom. In recent years, this recognition has remained vivid, sparking my curiosity about why predicting outcomes in the face of uncertainty is so difficult. Whether anticipating a geopolitical event, forecasting stock market trends, or simply contemplating life's next move, accurate prediction is an ever-present challenge. As I began to journal in earnest some years ago, I uncovered a fascinating trend hidden between the mundane details: my predictions were fraught with overblown concern and startling inaccuracy. Delving into the complexities of prediction and expertise, it becomes clear that many factors—from biases and cognitive distortions to the whims of randomness—shape our perceptions of certainty and accuracy. Despite these hurdles, new research offers a glimmer of hope. Support this project: Buy Me a CoffeeSubscribe to the newsletter: SUBSCRIBE ME!Show Notes and Links at Clippingchains.com

Authors of linked report: Josh Rosenberg, Ezra Karger, Avital Morris, Molly Hickman, Rose Hadshar, Zachary Jacobs, Philip Tetlock[1] Today, the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) released “Roots of Disagreement on AI Risk: Exploring the Potential and Pitfalls of Adversarial Collaboration,” which discusses the results of an adversarial collaboration focused on forecasting risks from AI. In this post, we provide a brief overview of the methods, findings, and directions for further research. For much more analysis and discussion, see the full report: https://forecastingresearch.org/s/AIcollaboration.pdf Abstract. We brought together generalist forecasters and domain experts (n=22) who disagreed about the risk AI poses to humanity in the next century. The “concerned” participants (all of whom were domain experts) predicted a 20% chance of an AI-caused existential catastrophe by 2100, while the “skeptical” group (mainly “superforecasters”) predicted a 0.12% chance. Participants worked together to find the strongest near-term cruxes: forecasting questions resolving by 2030 that [...] ---Outline:(02:13) Extended Executive Summary(02:44) Methods(03:53) Results: What drives (and doesn't drive) disagreement over AI risk(04:32) Hypothesis #1 - Disagreements about AI risk persist due to lack of engagement among participants, low quality of participants, or because the skeptic and concerned groups did not understand each others arguments(05:11) Hypothesis #2 - Disagreements about AI risk are explained by different short-term expectations (e.g. about AI capabilities, AI policy, or other factors that could be observed by 2030)(07:53) Hypothesis #3 - Disagreements about AI risk are explained by different long-term expectations(10:35) Hypothesis #4 - These groups have fundamental worldview disagreements that go beyond the discussion about AI(11:31) Results: Forecasting methodology(12:15) Broader scientific implications(13:09) Directions for further researchThe original text contained 10 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: March 11th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/orhjaZ3AJMHzDzckZ/results-from-an-adversarial-collaboration-on-ai-risk-fri Linkpost URL:https://forecastingresearch.org/s/AIcollaboration.pdf --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Results from an Adversarial Collaboration on AI Risk (FRI), published by Forecasting Research Institute on March 11, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Authors of linked report: Josh Rosenberg, Ezra Karger, Avital Morris, Molly Hickman, Rose Hadshar, Zachary Jacobs, Philip Tetlock[1] Today, the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) released "Roots of Disagreement on AI Risk: Exploring the Potential and Pitfalls of Adversarial Collaboration," which discusses the results of an adversarial collaboration focused on forecasting risks from AI. In this post, we provide a brief overview of the methods, findings, and directions for further research. For much more analysis and discussion, see the full report: https://forecastingresearch.org/s/AIcollaboration.pdf Abstract We brought together generalist forecasters and domain experts (n=22) who disagreed about the risk AI poses to humanity in the next century. The "concerned" participants (all of whom were domain experts) predicted a 20% chance of an AI-caused existential catastrophe by 2100, while the "skeptical" group (mainly "superforecasters") predicted a 0.12% chance. Participants worked together to find the strongest near-term cruxes: forecasting questions resolving by 2030 that would lead to the largest change in their beliefs (in expectation) about the risk of existential catastrophe by 2100. Neither the concerned nor the skeptics substantially updated toward the other's views during our study, though one of the top short-term cruxes we identified is expected to close the gap in beliefs about AI existential catastrophe by about 5%: approximately 1 percentage point out of the roughly 20 percentage point gap in existential catastrophe forecasts. We find greater agreement about a broader set of risks from AI over the next thousand years: the two groups gave median forecasts of 30% (skeptics) and 40% (concerned) that AI will have severe negative effects on humanity by causing major declines in population, very low self-reported well-being, or extinction. Extended Executive Summary In July 2023, we released our Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) report, which identified large disagreements between domain experts and generalist forecasters about key risks to humanity (Karger et al. 2023). This new project - a structured adversarial collaboration run in April and May 2023 - is a follow-up to the XPT focused on better understanding the drivers of disagreement about AI risk. Methods We recruited participants to join "AI skeptic" (n=11) and "AI concerned" (n=11) groups that disagree strongly about the probability that AI will cause an existential catastrophe by 2100.[2] The skeptic group included nine superforecasters and two domain experts. The concerned group consisted of domain experts referred to us by staff members at Open Philanthropy (the funder of this project) and the broader Effective Altruism community. Participants spent 8 weeks (skeptic median: 80 hours of work on the project; concerned median: 31 hours) reading background materials, developing forecasts, and engaging in online discussion and video calls. We asked participants to work toward a better understanding of their sources of agreement and disagreement, and to propose and investigate "cruxes": short-term indicators, usually resolving by 2030, that would cause the largest updates in expectation to each group's view on the probability of existential catastrophe due to AI by 2100. Results: What drives (and doesn't drive) disagreement over AI risk At the beginning of the project, the median "skeptic" forecasted a 0.10% chance of existential catastrophe due to AI by 2100, and the median "concerned" participant forecasted a 25% chance. By the end, these numbers were 0.12% and 20% respectively, though many participants did not attribute their updates to a...

So what if he is an academic? He is also an an original thinker with deep insights about education, elections, colonisation, politics, history, society. Yugank Goyal joins Amit Varma in episode 370 of The Seen and the Unseen to throw thought-bomb after thought-bomb at all of us. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Yugank Goyal on Twitter, LinkedIn, EPW, Flame University and Google Scholar. 2. Who Moved My Vote? -- Yugank Goyal and Arun Kumar Kaushik. 3. Documenting India: The Centre for Knowledge Alternatives. 4. Fixing Indian Education — Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 5. Robert Sapolsky's biology lectures on YouTube. 6. Harvard's CS50 course. 7. Superforecasting — Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 8. Fixing the Knowledge Society -- Episode 24 of Everything is Everything. 9. The Superiority of Economists -- Marion Fourcade, Etienne Ollion and Yann Algan. 10. Publish and Perish — Agnes Callard. 11. The Long Divergence — Timur Kuran. 12. The Incredible Insights of Timur Kuran — Episode 349 of The Seen and the Unseen. 13. Suyash Rai Embraces India's Complexity — Episode 307 of The Seen and the Unseen. 14. Premchand on Amazon and Wikipedia. 15. Dead Poet's Society -- Peter Weir. 16. Maithili Sharan Gupt and Jaishankar Prasad. 17. Kafan -- Premchand. 18. Elite Imitation in Public Policy — Episode 180 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Alex Tabarrok). 19. Is There an Indian Way of Thinking? — AK Ramanujan. 20. The Intimate Enemy -- Ashis Nandy. 21. The Colonial Constitution — Arghya Sengupta. 22. Arghya Sengupta and the Engine Room of Law -- Episode 366 of The Seen and the Unseen. 23. The History of British India -- James Mill. 24. SN Balagangadhara (aka Balu) on Amazon and Wikipedia. 25. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ramachandra Guha: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 26. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Manu Pillai: 1, 2, 3, 4. 27. Pride and Prejudice -- Jane Austen. 28. Ranjit Hoskote is Dancing in Chains -- Episode 363 of The Seen and the Unseen. 29. The UNIX Episode -- Episode 32 of Everything is Everything. 30. The Evolution of Everything -- Matt Ridley. 31. The Evolution of Everything -- Episode 96 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Matt Ridley). 32. The Evolution of Cooperation -- Robert Axelrod. 33. Kantara -- Rishab Shetty. 34. Early Indians — Episode 112 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tony Joseph). 35. Early Indians — Tony Joseph. 36. Who We Are and How We Got Here — David Reich. 37. Alice Evans Studies the Great Gender Divergence — Episode 297 of The Seen and the Unseen. 38. The People of India -- Herbert Risley. 39. Rahul Matthan Seeks the Protocol — Episode 360 of The Seen and the Unseen. 40. Gangs of Wasseypur -- Anurag Kashyap. 41. Why Children Labour (2007) -- Amit Varma. 42. Laws Against Victimless Crimes Should Be Scrapped — Amit Varma. 43. Intimate City — Manjima Bhattacharjya. 44. Manjima Bhattacharjya: The Making of a Feminist — Episode 280 of The Seen and the Unseen. 45. A Life in Indian Politics — Episode 149 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jayaprakash Narayan). 46. Politics — A limerick by Amit Varma. 47. India's Far From Free Markets (2005) — Amit Varma in the Wall Street Journal. 48. The Four Quadrants of Conformism — Paul Graham. 49. Public Choice Theory Explains SO MUCH -- Episode 33 of Everything is Everything. 50. Ramayana, the 1987 serial, on Wikipedia and YouTube. 51. 300 Ramayanas — AK Ramanujan. 52. The Life and Times of Vir Sanghvi — Episode 236 of The Seen and the Unseen. 53. The BJP Before Modi — Episode 202 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 54. The Intellectual Foundations of Hindutva — Episode 115 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Aakar Patel). 55. Cycle -- Prakash Kumte. 56. Mulshi Pattern -- Pravin Tarde. 57. The Heathen in His Blindness -- SN Balagangadhara. Amit's newsletter is explosively active again. Subscribe right away to The India Uncut Newsletter! It's free! Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new video podcast. Check out Everything is Everything on YouTube. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. Episode art: ‘Look Inside the Box' by Simahina.

After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss: — Cancel culture in the rationalist community — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination — Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit 3:25: Interview begins 4:14: Richard's new book The Origins of Woke and his association with Vivek Ramaswamy 7:00: Richard responds to those in the forecasting community who want to cancel him 8:12: How cancel culture is changing 10:13: Manifest Conference 11:12: Market-based responses to cancel culture 14:27: GOP nominee odds 15:56: Ramaswamy's views on prediction markets 17:50: PredictIt lawsuit against the CFTC 20:31: Conservative legal movement 32:20: Reasons why election markets became partisan 33:01: Political implications of Trump's legal problems 34:55: Hanania responds to haters and calls for open-mindedness 36:11: Incentives for political gambling versus punditry 40:11: Pratik plugs Origins of Woke

Our statues must eat ice cream, our cities must be designed by cardiovascular surgeons, and we must all go to the fifth temple. Krish Ashok and Naren Shenoy join Amit Varma in episode 343 of The Seen and the Unseen to banter away a few perfectly good hours. What a waste of time, eh? NO! (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Krish Ashok on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, his own website and Spotify/Apple Music/Soundcloud. 2. Naren Shenoy on Twitter, Instagram and Blogspot. 3. Narendra Shenoy and Mr Narendra Shenoy — Episode 250 of The Seen and the Unseen. 4. A Scientist in the Kitchen — Episode 204 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Krish Ashok). 5. Masala Lab: The Science of Indian Cooking -- Krish Ashok. 6. Simblified, co-hosted by Narendra Shenoy. 7. We want Narendra Shenoy to write a book. 8. Lohapurusha -- Krish Ashok's Sanskrit Heavy Metal album. 9. The Masala Lab Dal Recipe Generator -- Krish Ashok. 10. The Amaklamatic Salad Recipe Generator -- Krish Ashok. 11. The Amaklamatic Chutney Recipe Generator -- Krish Ashok. 12.  Newton the Alchemist. Gandhi the Black Swan -- Episode 7 of Everything is Everything. 13. Krish Ashok hates computers and this is proof. 14. Roshan Abbas and the Creator Economy — Episode 239 of The Seen and the Unseen. 15. The Adda at the End of the Universe — Episode 309 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vikram Sathaye and Roshan Abbas). 16. The Prem Panicker Files — Episode 217 of The Seen and the Unseen. 17. Caste, Gender, Karnatik Music — Episode 162 of The Seen and the Unseen (w TM Krishna). 18. 4′33″ -- John Cage. 19. Is the Singularity Near? -- Episode 2 of Everything is Everything. 20. The Formula Behind Every Perfect Pop Song — Seeker. 21. I, Pencil -- Leonard Read. 22. The Cadbury Dairy Milk Mystery -- Krish Ashok. 23. A Poetry Handbook — Mary Oliver. 24. Tvam -- Krish Ashok's version of Rammstein's Du Hast. 25. Du Hast -- Rammstein. 26. Early Indians — Episode 112 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tony Joseph). 27. Caste, Capitalism and Chandra Bhan Prasad — Episode 296 of The Seen and the Unseen. 28. Alice Evans Studies the Great Gender Divergence — Episode 297 of The Seen and the Unseen. 29. The Incredible Curiosities of Mukulika Banerjee — Episode 276 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Mukulika Banerjee). 30. The Pathan Unarmed — Mukulika Banerjee. 31. The Country Foods channel. 32. Ulhas Kamathe -- The Chicken Leg Piece Guy. 33. Sell the Tiger to Save It — Barun Mitra. 34. The Poultry Map. 35. The Egg Map. 36. Team Pizza or Team Biryani? 37. Gordon tries to make Pad Thai -- The F Word. 38. The Panchatantra. 39. Varun Grover Is in the House — Episode 292 of The Seen and the Unseen. 40. Kimaham Abhavam -- Krish Ashok's version of Johnny Cash's version of Nine Inch Nails's Hurt. 41. Hurt -- Johnny Cash. 42. Hurt -- Nine Inch Nails. 43. Miss Excel on Instagram and TikTok. 44. How an Excel Tiktoker Manifested Her Way to Making Six Figures a Day — Nilay Patel. 45. The Menu -- Mark Mylod. 46. Cilappatikaram. 47. Dunbar's number. 48. Womaning in India With Mahima Vashisht — Episode 293 of The Seen and the Unseen. 49. Womaning in India — Mahima Vashisht's newsletter. 50. Superforecasting -- Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 51. Essays -- Paul Graham. 52. Nityananda making sense. 53. Uncle Roger. 54. Abby Philips Fights for Science and Medicine — Episode 310 of The Seen and the Unseen. 55. Never Talk About TURMERIC on Social Media — Abby Philips. 56. The Magic Pill -- Rob Tate. 57. Wanting — Luke Burgis. 58. Luke Burgis Sees the Deer at His Window -- Episode 337 of The Seen and the Unseen. 59. Brandolini's law. 60. Foodpharmer on Instagram. 61. 1000 True Fans — Kevin Kelly. 62. 1000 True Fans? Try 100 — Li Jin. 63. The Case Against Sugar — Gary Taubes. 64. The Big Fat Surprise — Nina Teicholz. 65. The Obesity Code — Jason Fung. 66. Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas — Natasha Dow Schüll. 67. Your Undivided Attention -- Podcast by Tristan Harris and Aza Raskin. 68. Sara Rai Inhales Literature — Episode 255 of The Seen and the Unseen. 69. 3Blue1Brown on YouTube. 70. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri — Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen. 71. Jaya Varma and the Chandigarh Choir perform Dhano Dhanne. 72. In a Silent Way — Episode 316 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gaurav Chintamani). 73. Sonnet 18 -- William Shakespeare. 74. Sonnet 18 -- Harriet Walter. 74. Sonnet 18 -- Akala. 75. Sonnet 18 -- David Gilmour. 76. Raga Ahir Bhairav -- Gangubai Hangal. 77. The Memoirs of Dr Haimabati Sen — Haimabati Sen (translated by Tapan Raychoudhuri). 78. Kavitha Rao and Our Lady Doctors — Episode 235 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Kavitha Rao). 79. Dark Was the Night -- Blind Willie Johnson. 80. Car Wheels on a Gravel Road -- Lucinda Williams. 81. Sweet Old World -- Lucinda Williams. 82. All That She Wants -- Ace of Base. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new video podcast. Check out Everything is Everything on YouTube. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Amits' by Simahina.

It is not the world that is the problem but the flawed ways in which we think about it. Gurwinder Bhogal joins Amit Varma in episode 331 of The Seen and the Unseen to talk about his interest in meta-cognition -- and what it reveals about us and the world. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Gurwinder Bhogal on Substack and Twitter. 2.  My Story -- Gurwinder Bhogal.  3.  Why Smart People Believe Stupid Things -- Gurwinder Bhogal. 4. The Perils of Audience Capture -- Gurwinder Bhogal. 5. Skin in the Game -- Nassim Nicholas Taleb. 6. Superforecasting — Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 7. The Looking-Glass Shelf. 8. Nikocado Avocado -- Nicholas Perry's YouTube channel. 9. God is Not Great -- Christopher Hitchens. 10. The Coddling of the American Mind — Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt. 11. A Biologist Explains Why Sex Is Binary -- Colin Wright. 12. The Three Languages of Politics — Arnold Kling. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Think About Thinking' by Simahina.

Duncan MacInnes is an Investment Director at Ruffer LLP, where he has spent over a decade. He previously worked in wealth management. I have enjoyed listening to Duncan discuss positioning and multi-asset insights on the conference circuit and wanted to take this opportunity to discuss his views on the current macro backdrop as well as the state of play in finance circles as we wrestle with failing banks and what this means for investors. We start our conversation with a run through Duncan's upbringing in Scotland and his initial study of law, his passage into first wealth management and then asset management. His initial training in wealth management took him to Asia and we discuss how that total immersion experience lit the fire for an interest in economics, markets and multi-asset class investing. Moving to his current outlook we discuss Ruffer's preference for "minimax regret" which is the practice of minimizing the probability of your maximum regret - and focusing on capital preservation. We discuss the impact of the Fed tightening cycle on taking money out of the system and what this means for the velocity of money and money concentrating in the centre. We then turn to a number of other areas in turn - de-dollarization, the shifting appeal of fixed income and the coming chronic phase of the crisis. Our discussion around diversity focuses on creating an organization that can speak multiple languages - metaphorically speaking - some the language of number and quantitative analysis, some the language of sales and client partnerships Duncan discusses some of the finance books that he recommends to others and these are: The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel, Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks and SuperForecasting by Philip Tetlock. Series 3 of the 2023 Fiftyfaces Podcast is supported by Eagle Point Credit Management. Eagle Point Credit Management is a specialist investment manager principally focused on income-oriented credit investments in niche and inefficient markets. Founded by Thomas Majewski in partnership with Stone Point Capital in 2012, Eagle Point currently manages over $7.8 billion in AUM. Investment strategies pursued by the firm include collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”), portfolio debt securities, and other opportunities across the credit universe. Currently, we believe that Eagle Point is the largest investor in CLO equity in the world and one of the largest non-bank lenders focused on providing financing solutions to credit funds. Learn more about Eagle Point at http://eaglepointcredit.com/

Duncan MacInnes is an Investment Director at Ruffer LLP, where he has spent over a decade. He previously worked in wealth management. I have enjoyed listening to Duncan discuss positioning and multi-asset insights on the conference circuit and wanted to take this opportunity to discuss his views on the current macro backdrop as well as the state of play in finance circles as we wrestle with failing banks and what this means for investors. We start our conversation with a run through Duncan's upbringing in Scotland and his initial study of law, his passage into first wealth management and then asset management. His initial training in wealth management took him to Asia and we discuss how that total immersion experience lit the fire for an interest in economics, markets and multi-asset class investing. Moving to his current outlook we discuss Ruffer's preference for "minimax regret" which is the practice of minimizing the probability of your maximum regret - and focusing on capital preservation. We discuss the impact of the Fed tightening cycle on taking money out of the system and what this means for the velocity of money and money concentrating in the centre. We then turn to a number of other areas in turn - de-dollarization, the shifting appeal of fixed income and the coming chronic phase of the crisis. Our discussion around diversity focuses on creating an organization that can speak multiple languages - metaphorically speaking - some the language of number and quantitative analysis, some the language of sales and client partnerships Duncan discusses some of the finance books that he recommends to others and these are: The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel, Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, The Most Important Thing by Howard Marks and SuperForecasting by Philip Tetlock. Series 3 of the 2023 Fiftyfaces Podcast is supported by Eagle Point Credit Management. Eagle Point Credit Management is a specialist investment manager principally focused on income-oriented credit investments in niche and inefficient markets. Founded by Thomas Majewski in partnership with Stone Point Capital in 2012, Eagle Point currently manages over $7.8 billion in AUM. Investment strategies pursued by the firm include collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”), portfolio debt securities, and other opportunities across the credit universe. Currently, we believe that Eagle Point is the largest investor in CLO equity in the world and one of the largest non-bank lenders focused on providing financing solutions to credit funds. Learn more about Eagle Point at http://eaglepointcredit.com/

In episode 218 of the Gathering The Kings podcast, host Chaz Wolfe interviews James Collier, Co-Founder of Huel, a successful nutrition company. James is a registered nutritionist in the UK and has worked as a clinical dietician for years. He started working on Huel in 2014 with his partner, Julian. Since then, they have launched in the UK and sold over 300 million meals worldwide. The company's focus on sustainable food systems and being a purpose-driven business has been instrumental in its success.During the conversation, James shares insights into the integrator's experience in building a business, the importance of soft skills in life and business, and how crucial it is to take customer feedback into account. He also talks about how networking in the scientific community requires humility and his upcoming book, 'Thought for Food.' Finally, James discusses the recipe for self-mastery and how it has helped him in his personal and professional life.If you're interested in learning from a successful business owner about the importance of purpose-driven businesses, soft skills, and customer feedback, you won't want to miss this episode. Listen to Gathering The Kings podcast episode 218 with James Collier to learn more.During this episode, you will learn about;[01:18] Intro to James and his business[03:13] Jame's Why [04:53] A good decision James made in his business[06:39] A visionary vs. an integrators approach to big ideas[12:56] Why James decided to cut a product line [15:37] James' decision making process[20:06] Huel's approach to client experience[23:56] James' book recommendations[28:25] James' opinion on intentionally networking and masterminding[35:50] If James could speak to his younger self, what would he say?[37:47] How to connect with James[39:22] Info on Gathering The Kings Mastermind Notable Quotes"I don't wish to sound self-righteous, but I genuinely want to help the world, and that's truthful." - James Collier"Don't be led by your emotions, where you don't have to be." - James Collier"Don't live life with regrets." - James Collier“You can't just sit in a quiet room and expect the world to change, but that there's a lot of effort that starts with that.” - Chaz Wolfe (Host)Books and Resources Recommended:Atomic Habits by James Clear: https://www.amazon.com/Atomic-Habits-Proven-Build-Break/dp/0735211299Waking Up by Sam Harris: https://www.amazon.com/Waking-Up-Spirituality-Without-Religion/dp/1451636016Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136696(Note: Thought for Food by James Collier is an upcoming book in 2024 and therefore, a link for purchase is currently unavailable.)Let's Connect!James Collier:Website: https://huel.start.page/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/huel/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/huelusa/Youtube:

Ricardo fala sobre as previsões que fazemos para nossos projetos e iniciativas no episódio desta semana. Ele explica que frequentemente temos uma ilusão de controle e que a percepção da realidade futura é significativamente mais complicada do que a própria realidade. O professor Philip Tetlock descobriu que apenas 45% das 30.000 previsões feitas por vários profissionais eram precisas. Isso significa que a probabilidade de errar é igual à probabilidade de acertar, como jogar uma moeda. Ricardo dá dicas de como lidar com essas previsões. Primeiro, é essencial vê-las como perspectivas, não como verdades absolutas. Em segundo lugar, é necessário avaliar os impactos potenciais de cada cenário no projeto ou iniciativa caso a previsão ou risco se concretize. A diversificação é uma estratégia adicional essencial porque cria uma ferramenta de adaptação que nos permite ajustar a vários cenários. Ouça o podcast para saber mais.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Two directions for research on forecasting and decision making, published by Paal Fredrik Skjørten Kvarberg on March 11, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum. An assessment of methods to improve individual and institutional decision-making and some ideas for further research Forecasting tournaments have shown that a set of methods for good judgement can be used by organisations to reliably improve the accuracy of individual and group forecasts on a range of questions in several domains. However, such methods are not widely used by individuals, teams or institutions in practical decision making. In what follows, I review findings from forecasting tournaments and some other relevant studies. In light of this research, I identify a set of methods that can be used to improve the accuracy of individuals, teams, or organisations. I then note some limitations of our knowledge of methods for good judgement and identify two obstacles to the wide adoption of these methods to practical decision-making. The two obstacles are Costs. Methods for good judgement can be time-consuming and complicated to use in practical decision-making, and it is unclear how much so. Decision-makers don't know if the gains in accuracy of adopting particular methods outweigh the costs because they don't know the costs. Relevance. Rigorous forecasting questions are not always relevant to the decisions at hand, and it is not always clear to decision-makers if and when they can connect rigorous forecasting questions to important decisions. I look at projects and initiatives to overcome the obstacles, and note two directions for research on forecasting and decision-making that seem particularly promising to me. They are Expected value assessments. Research into the costs of applying specific epistemic methods in decision-making, and assessments of the expected value of applying those practices in various decision-making contexts on various domains (including other values than accuracy). Also development of practices and tools to reduce costs. Quantitative models of relevance and reasoning. Research into ways of modelling the relevance of rigorous forecasting questions to the truth of decision-relevant propositions quantitatively through formal Bayesian networks. After I have introduced these areas of research, I describe how I think that new knowledge on these topics can lead to improvements in the decision-making of individuals and groups. This line of reasoning is inherent in a lot of research that is going on right now, but I still think that research on these topics is neglected. I hope that this text can help to clarify some important research questions and to make it easier for others to orient themselves on forecasting and decision-making. I have added detailed footnotes with references to further literature on most ideas I touch on below. In the future I intend to use the framework developed here to make a series of precise claims about the costs and effects of specific epistemic methods. Most of the claims below are not rigorous enough to be true or false, although some of them might be. Please let me know if any of these claims are incorrect or misleading, or if there is some research that I have missed. Forecasting tournaments In a range of domains, such as law, finance, philanthropy, and geopolitical forecasting, the judgments of experts vary a lot, i.e. they are noisy, even in similar and identical cases.In a study on geopolitical forecasting by the renowned decision psychologist Philip Tetlock, seasoned political experts had trouble outperforming “dart-tossing chimpanzees”—random guesses—when it came to predicting global events. Non-experts, eg. “attentive readers of the New York Times” who were curious and open-minded, outperformed the experts, who tended to be overconfident. In a series of...

Social media has brought new challenges to our times, such as what they should or shouldn't publish or amplify. Do we need new laws to deal with these challenges, or are current laws sufficient? Paul M Barrett joins Vasant Dhar in episode 55 of Brave New World to share his insights. Useful resources 1. Paul M Barrett on Twitter, Amazon and NYU Stern. 2. Glock: The Rise of America's Gun -- Paul M Barrett. 3. A Platform ‘Weaponized': How YouTube Spreads Harmful Content—And What Can Be Done About It -- Paul M Barrett and Justin Hendrix. 4. It's Past Time to Take Social Media Content Moderation In-House -- Paul M Barrett. 5. Spreading The Big Lie: How Social Media Sites Have Amplified False Claims of U.S. Election Fraud -- Paul M Barrett. 6. The ‘Twitter Files' Show It's Time to Reimagine Free Speech Online -- David French. 7. Daniel Kahneman on How Noise Hampers Judgement -- Episode 21 of Brave New World. 8. Dissecting “Noise” -- Vasant Dhar. 9. Philip Tetlock on the Art of Forecasting — Episode 31 of Brave New World. 10. The Battle for Attention -- Vasant Dhar. 11. Section 230: It's Time to Equate Amplification to Publishing -- Vasant Dhar. Check out Vasant Dhar's newsletter on Substack. Subscription is free!

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: [Crosspost] ACX 2022 Prediction Contest Results, published by Scott Alexander on January 24, 2023 on LessWrong. Original here. Submission statement/relevance to Less Wrong: This forecasting contest confirmed some things we already believed, like that superforecasters can consistently outperform others, or the "wisdom of crowds" effect. It also found a surprising benefit of prediction markets over other aggregation methods, which might or might not be spurious. Several members of the EA and rationalist community scored highly, including one professional AI forecaster. But Less Wrongers didn't consistently outperform members of the general (ACX-reading, forecasting-competition-entering) population. Last year saw surging inflation, a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a surprise victory for Democrats in the US Senate. Pundits, politicians, and economists were caught flat-footed by these developments. Did anyone get them right? In a very technical sense, the single person who predicted 2022 most accurately was a 20-something data scientist at Amazon's forecasting division. I know this because last January, along with amateur statisticians Sam Marks and Eric Neyman, I solicited predictions from 508 people. This wasn't a very creative or free-form exercise - contest participants assigned percentage chances to 71 yes-or-no questions, like “Will Russia invade Ukraine?” or “Will the Dow end the year above 35000?” The whole thing was a bit hokey and constrained - Nassim Taleb wouldn't be amused - but it had the great advantage of allowing objective scoring. Our goal wasn't just to identify good predictors. It was to replicate previous findings about the nature of prediction. Are some people really “superforecasters” who do better than everyone else? Is there a “wisdom of crowds”? Does the Efficient Markets Hypothesis mean that prediction markets should beat individuals? Armed with 508 people's predictions, can we do math to them until we know more about the future (probabilistically, of course) than any ordinary mortal? After 2022 ended, Sam and Eric used a technique called log-loss scoring to grade everyone's probability estimates. Lower scores are better. The details are hard to explain, but for our contest, guessing 50% for everything would give a score of 40.21, and complete omniscience would give a perfect score of 0. Here's how the contest went: As mentioned above: guessing 50% corresponds to a score of 40.2. This would have put you in the eleventh percentile (yes, 11% of participants did worse than chance). Philip Tetlock and his team have identified “superforecasters” - people who seem to do surprisingly well at prediction tasks, again and again. Some of Tetlock's picks kindly agreed to participate in this contest and let me test them. The median superforecaster outscored 84% of other participants. The “wisdom of crowds” hypothesis says that averaging many ordinary people's predictions produces a “smoothed-out” prediction at least as good as experts. That proved true here. An aggregate created by averaging all 508 participants' guesses scored at the 84th percentile, equaling superforecaster performance. There are fancy ways to adjust people's predictions before aggregating them that outperformed simple averaging in the previous experiments. Eric tried one of these methods, and it scored at the 85th percentile, barely better than the simple average. Crowds can beat smart people, but crowds of smart people do best of all. The aggregate of the 12 participating superforecasters scored at the 97th percentile. Prediction markets did extraordinarily well during this competition, scoring at the 99.5th percentile - ie they beat 506 of the 508 participants, plus all other forms of aggregation. But this is an unfair comparison: our participants were only allowed to spend five minut...

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: [Crosspost] ACX 2022 Prediction Contest Results, published by Scott Alexander on January 24, 2023 on LessWrong. Original here. Submission statement/relevance to Less Wrong: This forecasting contest confirmed some things we already believed, like that superforecasters can consistently outperform others, or the "wisdom of crowds" effect. It also found a surprising benefit of prediction markets over other aggregation methods, which might or might not be spurious. Several members of the EA and rationalist community scored highly, including one professional AI forecaster. But Less Wrongers didn't consistently outperform members of the general (ACX-reading, forecasting-competition-entering) population. Last year saw surging inflation, a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a surprise victory for Democrats in the US Senate. Pundits, politicians, and economists were caught flat-footed by these developments. Did anyone get them right? In a very technical sense, the single person who predicted 2022 most accurately was a 20-something data scientist at Amazon's forecasting division. I know this because last January, along with amateur statisticians Sam Marks and Eric Neyman, I solicited predictions from 508 people. This wasn't a very creative or free-form exercise - contest participants assigned percentage chances to 71 yes-or-no questions, like “Will Russia invade Ukraine?” or “Will the Dow end the year above 35000?” The whole thing was a bit hokey and constrained - Nassim Taleb wouldn't be amused - but it had the great advantage of allowing objective scoring. Our goal wasn't just to identify good predictors. It was to replicate previous findings about the nature of prediction. Are some people really “superforecasters” who do better than everyone else? Is there a “wisdom of crowds”? Does the Efficient Markets Hypothesis mean that prediction markets should beat individuals? Armed with 508 people's predictions, can we do math to them until we know more about the future (probabilistically, of course) than any ordinary mortal? After 2022 ended, Sam and Eric used a technique called log-loss scoring to grade everyone's probability estimates. Lower scores are better. The details are hard to explain, but for our contest, guessing 50% for everything would give a score of 40.21, and complete omniscience would give a perfect score of 0. Here's how the contest went: As mentioned above: guessing 50% corresponds to a score of 40.2. This would have put you in the eleventh percentile (yes, 11% of participants did worse than chance). Philip Tetlock and his team have identified “superforecasters” - people who seem to do surprisingly well at prediction tasks, again and again. Some of Tetlock's picks kindly agreed to participate in this contest and let me test them. The median superforecaster outscored 84% of other participants. The “wisdom of crowds” hypothesis says that averaging many ordinary people's predictions produces a “smoothed-out” prediction at least as good as experts. That proved true here. An aggregate created by averaging all 508 participants' guesses scored at the 84th percentile, equaling superforecaster performance. There are fancy ways to adjust people's predictions before aggregating them that outperformed simple averaging in the previous experiments. Eric tried one of these methods, and it scored at the 85th percentile, barely better than the simple average. Crowds can beat smart people, but crowds of smart people do best of all. The aggregate of the 12 participating superforecasters scored at the 97th percentile. Prediction markets did extraordinarily well during this competition, scoring at the 99.5th percentile - ie they beat 506 of the 508 participants, plus all other forms of aggregation. But this is an unfair comparison: our participants were only allowed to spend five minut...

During this holiday season, are you finding your mind drifting to what's to come in the New Year, especially with so much uncertainty in the world right now?Take a magical carpet ride with Darryl Schoon, whose work spans the realms of economics, metaphysics and spirituality, as he explains why getting in touch with our inner selves matters so much and how approaching life as a bit of a fox and a hedgehog can help you stay prepared for what's to come in this amazing Living 4D conversation.Learn more about Darryl's work at his website. Save 15 percent on his new book, Docking at the Mothership, at Amazon throughout December.Show NotesAll of us are victims of our own judgements without knowing it. (12:47)Approaching life as a fox, a hedgehog or a bit of both. (20:23)“Each of us is where we are because that's where we're supposed to be, not where we want to be.” (29:59)“This isn't it.” (41:41)Darryl predicted the subprime economic disaster of 2008 way before it happened. (47:28)“Will a future that never happens determine what I do today?” (1:04:50)“Everything you think is correct…” (1:14:43)“Each one of us is loved in ways we cannot imagine.” (1:27:38)Appreciating the magnificence of life. (1:33:42)“Luck is love's reflection shining in your path.” (1:39:18)The higher self and the limited self. (1:45:09)Be open to the unexpected. (1:56:43)Do you put God in a box? (2:04:01)Capitalism is circulating credit and debt, not free markets. (2:12:56)Darryl's daily prayer for the past five years. (2:27:59)Do you love humanity but hate people? (2:34:50)The Aquarian age is coming… (2:44:23)A ship of fools. (2:57:05)ResourcesDarryl on Open Minds with Regina Meredith on GaiaDarryl on Jeffrey Mishlove's New Thinking Allowed on YouTubeTime of the Vulture by Darryl SchoonThe One True Religion by Michael and Rebecca BucciSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan GardnerThe Lazy Man's Way to Riches by Joe Karbo and Richard NixonThe Act of Will by Dr. Roberto Assagiolo and Dorothy FirmanA Course in Miracles by Helen Schucman and William ThetfordMore resources for this episode are available on our website.Thanks to our awesome sponsors: CHEK Institute/PT 3.0, Organifi (save 20 percent on your purchase by using the code CHEK20 at checkout), Paleovalley (save 15 percent on your purchase by using the code chek15 at checkout), BiOptimizers (save an extra 10 percent on your purchase by using the code PAUL10 at checkout) and Cymbiotika (save 15 percent on your purchase by using the code L4D15 at checkout).We may earn commissions from qualifying purchases using affiliate links.

How do we know when to trust the experts? On January 23rd, 2020, Vox published a piece titled The evidence on travel bans for diseases like coronavirus is clear: They don't work. Journalists are largely limited to reporting what experts tell them, and in this case, it seems Vox's experts misled them. By December 2020 The New York Times could reflect that “interviews with more than two dozen experts show the policy of unobstructed travel was never based on hard science. It was a political decision, recast as health advice, which emerged after a plague outbreak in India in the 1990s.” The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted for many that expertise and specialized knowledge are not so straightforward, and “trusting the science” isn't always straightforward, and hasty decisions can have global consequences. More narrowly, the political scientist Philip Tetlock's 2005 Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How can We Know? reported that the most confident pundits often prove the least accurate. To get around the biases and limitations of individuals, there has been a recent vogue for “prediction markets” using distributed knowledge and baking “skin in the game” into the process. On this episode of Unsupervised Learning Richard Hanania joins Razib to discuss his think tank's collaboration with UT Austin's Salem Center for Policy and Manifold Markets on a forecasting tournament. What's their goal? What are the limitations of these sorts of markets? Why do they not care about the contestants' credentials? Razib pushes Hanania on the idea there is no expertise, and they discuss domains where the application of specialized knowledge has concrete consequences (civil engineering) as opposed to those where it does not (political and foreign policy forecasting). Hanania also addresses his decision to leave Twitter after his latest banning.

Skip the Queue is brought to you by Rubber Cheese, a digital agency that builds remarkable systems and websites for attractions that helps them increase their visitor numbers. Your host is  Kelly Molson, MD of Rubber Cheese.Download our free ebook The Ultimate Guide to Doubling Your Visitor NumbersIf you like what you hear, you can subscribe on iTunes, Spotify, and all the usual channels by searching Skip the Queue or visit our website rubbercheese.com/podcast.If you've enjoyed this podcast, please leave us a five star review, it really helps others find us. And remember to follow us on Twitter for your chance to win the books that have been mentioned in this podcastCompetition ends January 31st 2023. The winner will be contacted via Twitter. Show references: https://www.katapult.co.uk/https://www.linkedin.com/in/mrrobbiejones/https://www.katapult.co.uk/creating-unique-visitor-destinations-in-a-crowded-market/ Robbie is Insights Analyst Lead at Katapult. He works on providing data-driven audience and market trends, as well as operational insights, to assist the design team in creating immersive, commercially-successful experiences. Robbie has over 10 years' experience in the leisure and tourism industry and has worked with iconic brands, theme parks, family entertainment centres, museums and visitor attractions around the world. He is a dedicated Board Member of his local art and cinema centre, Derby QUAD. Katapult designs themed attractions and experiences that amaze and engage visitors globally. Our work is enjoyed by 50 million visitors, at 81 attractions, in 18 different countries, every year. As well as increasing guest experience, we thrive on helping you generate more income, more fans and bring the vision for your attraction to life. Legoland, Sea Life, Twycross Zoo, Alton Towers. Transcriptions: Kelly Molson: Welcome to Skip the Queue, a podcast for people working in or working with visitor attractions. I'm your host, Kelly Molson. Each episode I speak with industry experts from the attractions world.In today's episode, I speak with Robbie Jones, Insights Analyst Lead at Katapult. We discuss how to create a unique visitor attraction, what you need to know before you start, and what the leisure and attractions market is looking like post-COVID.If you like what you hear, subscribe on iTunes, Spotify, and all the usual channels by searching Skip the Queue.We're back, I hope you've all had really busy summers full of lovely visitors. I'd really like to know how it's been for you. So feel free to get in touch. You can always email me at kelly@rubbercheese.com. Can you believe this is season four of Skip the Queue Podcast? I cannot believe that we've been running for so long now. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for sticking around and for supporting us. We have a whole season full of really brilliant guests booked in, and I know that you're going to absolutely love them. We'll be covering topics on innovation, pricing, filming, and even aromas. Yeah, you heard me right, all the smelly stuff. But we are kicking off in style with the team at Katapult. Kelly Molson: Robbie.Robbie Jones: Hello. Hello.Kelly Molson: Welcome to Skip the Queue. I'm really excited to have you on today. Thank you for joining me for the first episode of season four.Robbie Jones: I know. What an honour, what an honour. I can't believe that I've been chosen first.Kelly Molson: You're the chosen one. Well, you say it's an honour now, but you might not appreciate it after I've got you with these icebreaker questions.Robbie Jones: All good.Kelly Molson: I've actually got some new ones this season. So I've been asking our lovely former guests and our Twitter followers to send me in some new ones because I felt like the old ones were getting a bit tired. So I'm going to whack you with some of the new ones and see how we get on.Robbie Jones: Okay. Here goes.Kelly Molson: I have to say, this is one of my favourite ones.Robbie Jones: Okay.Kelly Molson: It might date us slightly as well. You can only save one of the Muppets, which one do you choose and why?Robbie Jones: I think Kermit.Kelly Molson: Okay.Robbie Jones: He's just iconic, isn't he? My first memory of Kermit is when they did their version of A Christmas Carol. The thought of Kermit doing that was amazing. So it's got to be Kermit, it's got to be Kermit.Kelly Molson: Yeah, he's a classic. He's a classic, isn't he? He's quite legendary. All right. Good. Okay, good answer. Next one. If you could enter the Olympics for anything, what would you be Olympic level at? And we are not just talking sports here. This could be baking, moaning. What are you saying?Robbie Jones: I think I see myself as a bit of a jack of all, a master of none. Maybe I'm a decathlete, something like that, where I'm good at a few things but I'm not amazing at one big thing.Kelly Molson: When we go back to sports day at school, what was the thing that you would do at sports day?Robbie Jones: It was probably the long distance running. I seem to do a lot of cross country, we used to call it in our school, which went from tarmac to a muddy path in about five minutes. So I don't know how cross country that was. But yeah, long distance running. I can't stand it now. I can't stand the noise of breathing, heavy breathing as I struggle up a hill. That's just not a sound anybody wants to listen to.Kelly Molson: Oh, you really make me laugh. So the only thing I can think about when I'm running is breathing and now all I'm going to hear is myself breathing and think about Robbie and not wanting to do it. Okay, final one.Robbie Jones: Yeah.Kelly Molson: What movie can you rewatch over and over and over again? And how many times have you watched this movie that you're about to tell me?Robbie Jones: So I think for an absolute nostalgia, it'd have to be Dumb and Dumber because the amount of bonding that me and my younger brother have done over that film is just immense. I think we reference it every time we speak to one another, it's just become part of our psyche, part of our relationship. So we've probably watched it dozens of times between us, but it gets referenced at least three times a week.Kelly Molson: Oh, it's a great film.Robbie Jones: Jim Carrey, brilliant.Kelly Molson: He's great, isn't he? Are you going to do... So if we do the song, Mock-Robbie Jones: Yeah.Kelly Molson: ... ing-Robbie Jones: Yeah.Kelly Molson: ... bird.Robbie Jones: I can't believe I'm doing this. I can't believe I'm doing it.Kelly Molson: This is the level that the show has gotten to, folks. This is what we got up to on our summer break. And I love that film and my friends were really obsessed with Ace Ventura films as well, Jim Carrey.Robbie Jones: Yes.Kelly Molson: Cannot beat.Robbie Jones: Yeah, comedy icon. Amazing. I love him to pieces.Kelly Molson: Robbie, I can't believe I just made you do that. I'm so sorry. I've lost it now. Right. Unpopular opinion. What've you got for us?Robbie Jones: Right. I don't think eating chocolate and fruit should go together. It's not right. I'll draw a line, fruit and nut in terms of a chocolate bar, dried fruits, I'm okay with. But when it's fresh, juicy things like grapes and strawberries going with chocolate, I just can't stand it at all.Kelly Molson: Oh, what? Not a little fondue at a wedding? A little chocolate fondue? No?Robbie Jones: No, just no. You wouldn't mix milk with water and drink it. And that's kind of what I feel like when I'm eating chocolate and fruit together. So yeah, whoever has got the largest fondue rental company, please stop because I don't like it.Kelly Molson: Wow. Okay. I feel like that's quite controversial. The milk and water thing actually turned my stomach. When you said that, I was like, "Oh, no, you wouldn't, would you?"Robbie Jones: There you go. Again, the next time you eat a fondue, just think of me and start gagging probably as I would.Kelly Molson: Wow. What a note to start the podcast on. We've really taken this to a whole new level today, haven't we? Excellent. Right, Robbie, you are the lead insights analyst at Katapult. And I want to come back in a minute to talk about what your job entails, but first Katapult itself. So a little story for you. So years ago, you know when you were at school and you'd have to pick work experience? My granddad had a business and his next door neighbour's business made props for films.Robbie Jones: Nice.Kelly Molson: So I bagged myself work experience at this place and I got to make loads, I just got to make some weird stuff that then ended up in films. And I remember going to the cinema, watching the film going, "I made that Hessian box there. I sewed that. Whoa, that was really good." If I could go back now and go, "No, this is where I want to go and do work experience," I would choose Katapult without a doubt because you do incredible things. Tell the listeners what Katapult does, it's so cool.Robbie Jones: Yeah, sure. So we design themed attractions and experiences. We do it the world over and it could be as something as small as a little popup street food courtyard that we did a couple of years ago right to a large scale, full theme park design and everything in between. And it is, it's great, it's really, really fun. We get to work with some amazing clients, some amazing brands and IPs where the design team are just in their element. They're able to work with brands like LEGO that they've grown up playing with since they was small boys and girls. So it's fantastic for us all to carry on being a kid really, in essence, being creative, being surrounded by colour and fun and entertainment. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of hard work that goes into it. A lot of extended hours, red-eye flights across the world. But it's amazing. It's amazing to be a part of and design some pretty amazing things that are either coming soon or already open. So yeah, we do a lot and we're very thankful.Kelly Molson: It's so exciting. I feel like you played it down a little bit there as well. You were like, "Yeah, we design attractions and experiences." I was like, "Yeah, you do. It's really exciting." What do you do specifically there? Lead insights and analyst is your job title.Robbie Jones: Yeah.Kelly Molson: So you are kind of the data that sits behind that, the research that sits behind it.Robbie Jones: Yeah, absolutely. So I think something that we've been in the industry for over 20 years now and gradually that we've seen that actually it's really good to make sure you've got some sort of insights, believe it or not, to make a very good decision. And it was something that was kind of lacking within the industry. There was lots of big thinking, feasibility reports, people telling you what the commercial outcomes would be to improve a visitor attraction or even to open a new attraction. But no one was really saying, "Well, hold on a minute, who is it that you're trying to get through the doors and what is it that they actually want? And have they actually got the money to spend that you are charging for?"Robbie Jones: And that's the bit of the insights gap that I, and we at Katapult, fill. We understand the sheer importance of having that insights. We can't just design something from scratch, full stop, regardless of whether we are working with an IP or not. You've got to have an idea of who are the people coming through the door. So that sheer responsibility lays flat on my shoulders to make sure that whatever the design team designs next, it is fully in lined, not just commercially, but from a guest point of view as well that they are going to love it from the moment they walk in. So yeah, pretty big responsibility. But it's fantastic to set the design team up to let them creative minds go wild.Kelly Molson: It is fascinating what you do. And I think that it's really similar to probably the bit that I do in our business, because my role is to understand what the client's challenges is. And so you are asking all of the questions around, "Well, who's your consumer? What do they spend? Where do they do? Where do they go? What do they read?" Et cetera, et cetera. And then you translate. The designers, they get to do the fun bit. But I think that the research bit is the fun bit, to be honest. They would probably argue with me. So how do you start that process? What are the kind of things that you're asking?Robbie Jones: Well, I guess it depends on the client, depends on the project. But the way we typically start for existing visitor attractions is we kind of do a mystery shop, or we call it a guest experience audit. But we don't just go around and have fun, that's the second part of the day. The first part of the day is thinking about if you've got signs telling interpretation and you're a museum, are they at the right height for kids to read it? If it is, is it the right level of language required for a five, six, seven year old to be able to read it? And everything in between. It's is the staff levels good? Are there plenty of vegetarian options within the cafe facilities? All of these things where we want to make sure every touchpoint that every guest that comes through is satisfied and our audit goes in, it pulls out the good stuff, but more importantly for the operators, it pulls out the stuff where they could probably do a little bit better. It's the things that are probably mentioned more than often on TripAdvisor.Robbie Jones: And so it gives us the chance to go, "Right, yes, we did find these issues. These need solving as soon as possible so let's get to work. Let's get to work in figuring out what we can do." And sort of 75% of the time, those things that we highlight, they can pretty much be done by the attraction themselves. It's only the other 25% where we go, "Right, your guests aren't staying for four hours and you want them to stay for four hours. They're only staying for two. What can we do to make the experience last twice as long? What can we do to keep them there and engaged and immersed for double the amount of time that they are before?" And that's obviously when we get the design team's creative juices flowing and start to think about what can we do to improve the attraction. So yeah, in a roundabout way, the guest experience audit helps to unlock the insights, helps to give us the ammunition we need to improve the attraction, and also look to work on some bigger projects for the clients as well. So yeah, that's a roundabout way in terms of how we do it with the audit.Kelly Molson: I love that. So from your perspective, it's not just about creating new, it's not just about adding on. It's about looking at it from a holistic perspective. Where are you already? How are you performing? Okay, well, look, this is doing really well. That's great. These things need to improve. And then, okay, so now let's look at the new stuff. Because I guess there's always that excitement about, "New, new, new, new," isn't there? Oh, a new attraction, a new, I don't know, show that you're going to put on within it. And that's what gets everyone excited. Sometimes they forget to take that step back and go, "But what needs to improve with what we already have?"Robbie Jones: Yeah, absolutely. And the greatest assets that visitor attractions have probably got are sat there already, they just need discovering. And what we tend to find is if it's not something tangible, like a ride needs improving or an experiential walking trail needs improving, it falls down to the narrative or the storytelling of the attraction. That seems to be the thing that we are coming across at the moment, which probably leaves a little bit left to be desired. People don't explain their stories enough. Why are they unique? Why are they telling us this story when you go into a museum? Or why has this art centre got this curation of art? People aren't very good at telling stories that guests want to listen to. So you're right. It's not always about the new, it's about the existing, but extrapolating what's good about that experience in the first place.Kelly Molson: You wrote a really good article that I read a couple of weeks ago called Creating Unique Visitor Destinations in a Crowded Market. So I'm going to put a link to this in the show notes, but it's on Katapult's website as well.Kelly Molson: You said that attractions need to capitalise on what is unique about them. And that's not just from the perspective of, "Hey, we've got this mascot," or, "this is how we're going to put it around the site." Is the location unique? Is the food offering that you have based on that location? What is it about you that really stands out that guests can't get anywhere else and they're not going to get the same story anywhere else? I thought that was such a great way of looking at the uniqueness of each attraction.Robbie Jones: Yeah, and I think there's always going to be a place for attractions that have got the fastest thing, the tallest thing, the biggest thing. That does a lot to pull a crowd. But when it comes to trying to fight your corner, if you're medium or smaller size visitor attraction, you've got to pull on your unique. There's a finite source of money and time so you're going have to try and get your visitors and your guests a slightly different way. The article came from an issue that was within two strands of the industry. The first being museums and art galleries that were struggling from a values perspective to say, "We can't take this donation because it doesn't fit in with our values." Or museums having to give away certain artefacts back to countries because of the connotations of it being stolen in what is in today's society. So they're under huge pressure to say, "Well, what is our story? What is our narrative?" And for places like that, it is very much rooted in the locality. What is your city about? What is your region about? And curating around that.Robbie Jones: The second strand is around experiences that have got a blueprint and are looking to create dozens of the same attraction all around the world. Again, there is absolutely a place for that in this world. We've got countless clients who do the same thing. But where there needs to be a differentiation is how the local market impacts what that attraction is. You can't just say, "We're going to have an indoor attraction that's going to have a soft play and a cafe and that's kind of it. And then we're going to put it throughout 40 different countries around the world." It's not going to wash. You can't just put a badge on the front of that indoor attraction and say, "Welcome to Tokyo. Welcome to Orlando." It's just not going to work. It's not going to wash. It is not unique enough.Robbie Jones: So for those attractions, it's about, "Yes, you've got a blue blueprint, but what can you do differently based on the people, the profile, the guests that are going to come through that door to make it slightly tweaked in terms of things that they might not have from a local competitor point of view?" Or just making sure that you replicate their stories within the attraction. I've seen some really good stuff that Crayola have done in the US where they're starting to onboard local artists for their entertainment centres. That's amazing. You could be in the US, go to the two different Crayolas and have a different experience. So being able to create that unique experience is twofold, but it's one that everyone's got to look at quite a bit now.Kelly Molson: So one of the things I thought was quite interesting is the scale of the projects that you work on at Katapult. So for example, I think you mentioned earlier, the Derby Market Place project, which is a popup marketplace, and then you've worked with organisations like the SEA LIFE London Aquarium. They're really different experiences. Do you look at the same approach when you are working with that kind of scale of client?Robbie Jones: Yeah, absolutely. I think with those two examples, there was a very clear commercial goal for both of them. For SEA LFIE it was about adding an experience that makes the ticket price value for money, but it's also there to increase photographic and merchandise sales as well. So there was a very clear understanding of what the commercial goal was. For Derby Market Place, that was actually a popup courtyard that was set up in 2020 just after the first lockdown of the pandemic in the UK. Derby is our home city and we was approached by the city council to do something that will support the local businesses because there was obviously restaurants, cafes going bust because they simply couldn't do a takeaway service or they didn't have the outdoor catering. So for that, we created a courtyard.Robbie Jones: So as a result, they both had commercial goals and we both started them pretty much the same way, which is, "Right. Well, who is it that's going to come through the door?" Who is it? What do they want? Is it a family of four? Is it a couple? How much money have they got? What sort of experience are they used to? How long are they going to stay? What information are they going to want? All of this information that I guess sometimes we take for granted in the attractions industry, feed it into the design and ultimately come up with exactly what we did for the marketplace and SEA LIFE. So yeah, I think by and large, we kind of stick along the same path, very much insights driven design. We do the insights, we design it based on that, and then we hope it reaches the commercial goal.Kelly Molson: So you mentioned Crayola a minute ago. That is a brilliant example of really using the locality to make that attraction individual. What other great examples of really truly unique attractions can you think of?Robbie Jones: Well, I think I mentioned it in the article you've already mentioned. But Meow Wolf, particularly the first one in Santa Fe, that is an absolute benchmark that I use in terms of how you use local talents, local immersion to help make Santa Fe a destination in it's own right. It's amazing how much one attraction can pivot the way that a region is seen, a city is seen, and turns it into a place that people are staying overnight for two or three nights to just to go to Meow Wolf. So definitely that, in terms of creating a destination.Robbie Jones: But I do want to pull out another example as well, and it's not necessarily unique as such, but it's the feeling is unique, and that is Paultons Park. So for those that have been to Paultons, Peppa Pig World is there, which is a massive pull. They've got some great rides, they've got some really good food and beverage outlets, a good smattering of live performances. But what makes the park stand out is how immaculate it is when it comes to public realm. The gardens are fantastic, the landscaping's amazing. You'd be hard troubled to find a piece of litter on the floor. And the staff are so incredibly attentive with attention to detail that actually, when I've gone a few times now, it's the one thing that always stands out to me. And it's the benchmark for just cleanliness. You could be forgiven for being in a communist China, it's very clean and orderly and focused. But actually when we think about visiting a theme park, we want it to be glossy and clean and not a bother in the world. And it's little things like that, for me, that have made Paultons an absolute benchmark as well for us.Kelly Molson: Because I always think back to Disney about that and no litter, beautiful gardens and that, for me, is the level. I haven't had the pleasure of Paultons Park yet. I think I've got a couple more years and then it'll be on the list.Robbie Jones: Yeah, absolutely. You'll find out just much you can spend in that store with Peppa Pig.Kelly Molson: Oh God. Yeah, I can imagine. Let's talk about summer and let's talk about what the attractions market looks like at the moment. So I know that you've had an incredibly busy summer and as we are recording this, we're still at the tail end of it. So I can imagine that you are looking forward to a little bit of a rest-Robbie Jones: Yes, definitely.Kelly Molson: ... come September-October time. How is the attractions market looking at the moment to you post-COVID? Because we've moved on, so to speak, from COVID or the majority of people have moved on from it, but I think it's really difficult with attractions because we are still seeing a slight decline in visitor numbers, but there's obviously other factors going on at the moment in terms of the energy crisis and things like that. So what's your view of the leisure and attractions market at the moment?Robbie Jones: I think post-COVID, if we think about the start of the year, I think it was incredibly buoyant. I think attractions have seen the opportunity to invest now. The staycation market has absolutely boomed during the times when international travel around the world was banned. So it means that there's been a strong staycation market, which is really, really good. I think for the UK in particular, it's making sure, and this isn't just the attractions industry, I think this goes across the whole staycation market of the UK, don't get so greedy. There's a lot of... I understand that demand is high and you want to capitalise on it. But if we want to keep the UK as a staycation destination, you can't be charging silly prices compared to what they could probably do as an all inclusive for 10 days in Mallorca, as an average in terms of what the family's going to do. You've got to offer some sort of value for money.Robbie Jones: And the cost of living is the big thing now. I think that's what we are seeing. COVID is there in the background and it's obviously affected things, but the cost of living is the one that's really starting to bite a little bit more now. And I think it's because although we saw a lot of drop in wealth during the COVID pandemic, actually the cost of living now is probably a harder time for a lot of people because the savings have already been taken up by making sure they've got income coming in or topping up furlough or whatever it was. So yeah, the cost of living is the big thing. People aren't going to go out and spend, I don't know, 200, 300 quids on a day at a theme park. I can't see it happening. If they do, they'll have to forgo something else and I think that's something that's going to be in the minds-eye of visitor attractions.Robbie Jones: And I think we're starting to see a homogenised view of what we mean by leisure and attractions. Shopping centres now want to get in on the act and have lots of entertainment. You've got places like Butlins and Pontins in the UK, so typical caravan hotel resorts that have built live entertainment and experiences around them. They are in direct competition with theme parks and visitor attractions because they're offering entertainment. So the more experiences are spread throughout our sphere of what we can and can't do, the less money there is to go around. So even more of a need for people to be a little bit more unique and think about it's not just what's going to get me to this theme park, it's why would they choose the theme park over X, Y, and Z. And as they always say, option Z could be sitting at home and watching Netflix. You've you've got to do something to get people off the sofa.Kelly Molson: I'd not considered the option Z could be Butlins or Pontins though. That has just blown my mind because the whole way through the pandemic, we've been saying, "Your competition is Netflix, it's Disney+." But I hadn't even considered that now people are looking at how they spend that excess cash and how they spend their holiday time. Butlins is a competitor for Alton Towers.Robbie Jones: Yeah, in that comparison, absolutely. It's just that they've gone about things in opposite directions. Butlins went from accommodation to experiences and Alton Towers, vice versa, but they are very, very much competitors these days. And if you had £500 as a family to spend for a weekend, where would you go? And actually you look at the offers of both of those examples and depends on what sort of family you are and what sort of things you like to do. It might be a hard decision to make, but ultimately it'll be the one, it won't be the both.Kelly Molson: Yeah, absolutely. Okay. So you said that you have seen attractions investing in new rides and experiences to capitalise on that staycation. What do you think attractions should be doing right now based on what we've just discussed, this competitive state that you are in?Robbie Jones: It sounds really cliche, but I think just have a long term view on things. I can say this from doing insights here at Katapult, but when we are looking at data and trends and audiences, we are not just looking over the last 12 months. We're looking five or 10 years in the past and five and 10 years in the future to get a really good outlook in terms of, "Well, what do we think people are going to do?" Obviously you can't always guess what's going to happen. I think the last few years have taught us that. But you can have some sort of a vision in terms of where you want to go. Where do visitor attractions want to be in 10 years time? I'd love to know how many attractions know that answer.Robbie Jones: If they know it, then that's fantastic because they'll be gradually building towards that. But what we've seen from our side at Katapult is that we've gone to a lot of visitor attractions around the world that are doing a fantastic job at iterating, whether they've got a theme park or museum or whatever it is, but it's all bundled together in a big mound of plasticine with lots of different colours attached and different shapes. And it does a job, but it doesn't feel like the same place. And if we're treating that as the elixir of the visitor attraction, then that you need to get to the point of, "Well, what is your 10 year goal?" If you know that, you know what you're going towards. And I'd certainly focus on that, if you've got a little bit of spare time.Kelly Molson: Yeah, they're not busy at the minute. It's just been through summer. They should be resting now, the summer's done. That's really hard though, isn't it? So an example of that locally, to me, so I live near a vineyard, there's a lovely vineyard, about 15 minute walk from my house called Saffron Grange. Just give them a little plug because it is phenomenal. They've been selling their wines since 2019. However, the vineyards were planted like 11 years before that. And so they have had to have the vision of whatever they were planting and however they were designing that plot of land that they have. It's phenomenal the things they had to think about. What trees they would plant, because that's how high they would grow that would shield those vineyards from the wind and those vineyards from the frost. And just the granular level of planting that's had to go into that place to make the wine and the grapes now to be at the best they possibly can, it blows my mind.Kelly Molson: But it's the same thing at a visitor attraction. You've got to have that vision to go, "Well, this is my idea and this is how we're going to develop it over that time." But you've got the factor of not really knowing what your customers are going to want at that point. With the vineyard, at least they know relatively, other than wind and rain influences and weather that you can't predict, they kind of know how those vines are going to grow and what they're going to get at the end of it. With an attraction, you've got multiple different audiences with multiple different opinions on what they want and what their needs are, throw in a global pandemic. Just how do you even do that? I can't comprehend how you do that.Robbie Jones: I think we get caught up sometimes in thinking that a 10 year vision or a goal, or whatever you want to call it, has to be numerical or it has to be very definitive in terms we want to be the number one theme park in the world. Those sorts of things, you are almost hamstrung by. But what about if you said that you wanted your visitor attraction to be the most inspiring creative place for kids under 10? That is a vision. That is a vision that you can build towards. And if things change, whether it's your audience or your local competitors or whatever it is, you can still build towards that vision because that's what you believe in.Robbie Jones: It's about having a sense of what your values are as a business or as an attraction, standing by them, making that vision a reality by saying, "All right, we're going to do this because we believe in it." And that, again, ties really nicely back into what creates a unique attraction. It's your values. And I think it's the same for every business. We're seeing it a lot more now in the wider business community where people are making a choice over values instead of cost. Although the cost of living is obviously exacerbating that slightly. But people are making choices on green energy instead of fossil fuels, for example. So visitor attractions are only going to go the same way. So it's a big one. Yeah, you're right. 10 years. If you don't know your 10 year vision, then you don't know how to get there over the next 10 years.Kelly Molson: I love that.Robbie Jones: So, it is sorted.Kelly Molson: Yeah, so just put that to the top of the list, attractions. Yeah. Now I guess that's a really good place to be now, isn't it? You've just gone through that really, really hectic summer period. Now, the run up to Christmas, bar a few events and things that'll happen, it's a time for planning for next year. So now is a really good time to be able to take that step back and go, "Okay, well, what is our vision? Do we need to revisit our values and vision?" And then that will make the planning for 2023 a hell of a lot clearer. Okay. One last question on this, because what if attractions are already doing really well at the moment? Because we've got attractions, outdoor attractions that have been smashing it.Robbie Jones: Yeah.Kelly Molson: So what if your attractions are at capacity, what then do you do? So you are looking at things like planning, the expansions, things like that. What can they do?Robbie Jones: I think there's one of two route that are seeming quite popular at the minute. I think one is to, if you look at places like Gravity and Puttshack and a few others that have escaped my mind, by almost franchising, if you think you've got a concept that is completely unique and can be spread throughout the UK, Europe, worldwide, then now's the opportunity to look at it. It needs some careful consideration. As we said before, you can't just copy and paste. But if you think you've got something pretty amazing, then go for it. Well, why not open a second or a third or a fourth? You've proven it can work, so try it. It's worth a go.Robbie Jones: And the second thing, and this is something where I think the bigger museums during the pandemic have really led the chase on this, so I think it was one of the museums in London, I can't remember what, but they introduced lates, Museum Lates where they did silent discos around the exhibits. This is a perfect time to try completely different things. If you've got an out of season or you've got low throughput days or weeks or weekends, then what can you do to bring in another audience? Let's try and fill up your throughput and your dwell time of your attraction 100% of the year round. If you can do that, then you're making more from the asset that's already making your money. So try it out. Find new guest profiles, find new groups of audiences that might want to visit, and consider doing something very special for them. And you never know. If it works out, then you've got an extra revenue stream that you didn't think you had. So they'd be my preference, if I was in that fortunate position, to go down one of those two routes.Kelly Molson: Great advice. Thank you. We're going to put all of Robbie's contact details, et cetera, all in the show notes. So if you fancy a chat with him, you want to find out a little bit more about what Katapult do, you want to book yourselves one of those... Oh God, I've forgotten the words. One of the-Robbie Jones: Audit.Kelly Molson: Audit, audit, audit is the word. If you'd like to book one of those audits. So you can do that. I would love to know about a book though, Robbie. So we always offer up a guest's book choice as a prize and it's can be something that you love, it can be something that's helped shape your career in some way. What do you have for us today?Robbie Jones: Gosh, can I pick two?Kelly Molson: It's double my marketing spend, but why not? What's the first one?Robbie Jones: Oh, good, fantastic. So I think one that's a personal one is by Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises. It's a lovely in depth read about the twenties and thirties where cafe culture was rife and artists and poets were making adventurous trips to France and Spain to soak up the culture. And it's a wonderful, wonderful story that really makes me want to live 90 years from now and really enjoy it. I think that's the first part. The second part is that Ernest Hemingway used to be a journalist so his descriptions of the characters are very matter of fact and I think that's seeped into my audience profiling that I do as part of my job. I like the matter of fact, I like the facts that make the people real, and then start to tell the story of what we think they're going to do in an attraction. So I think Ernest Hemingway has certainly had an influence on me.Robbie Jones: And then the second book is called Superforecasting, which is by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Now this, it came to prominence a little bit when Dominic Cummins was advisor to Boris Johnson in his ill-fated stay at 10 Downing Street, and it speaks about the art and science of prediction and getting things right. And I read it from end to end. I completely soaked this book up. It's a little bit courty in places so you've got to take a bit of pinch of salt. But it's good at kind of teaching you to say, "Right, can you be a super forecaster?" And funny enough, I think it was February or March this year, they put out a bold statement that Vladimir Putin was not going to enter Ukraine under any circumstances, at least for the next six to nine months and then I think it was about two weeks later and he invaded. So I think that example of the book, it kind of comes with a moral, I think, which is you can super forecast or try and super forecast as much as you want, but you've got absolute no way of deciding what's going to work. There's a difference between a good and a bad decision and a good and a bad outcome. And I think that's what that book's taught me.Kelly Molson: Yeah, that example did not sell that book for me at all. However, that sounds great. That sounds like a really good book. You've absolutely blown my marketing budget again, which everybody always does.Robbie Jones: So sorry.Kelly Molson: No, I love the example of Ernest Hemingway and I love how it's infiltrated the way that you do your work as well. I haven't read either of those books so they're going to go on my list. And actually, listeners, we do compile a list of all of the books that all of our guests suggest and you can find that over on the Rubber Cheese website, rubbercheese.com, go to the insights, it's in there. Robbie, thank you. As ever, if you want to win Robbie's books, if you go over to our Twitter account and you retweet this show announcement with the words, "I want Robbie's books," then you will be in with a chance of winning both of them. I've loved our little chat. Thank you. Thank you for indulging in my little song.Robbie Jones: Oh gosh. I'm just glad that you didn't get me to do the scene where he's peeing into a bottle in Dumb and Dumber. Very well.Kelly Molson: I don't think that would've worked very well on the podcast. Do you?Robbie Jones: No, no. I'm sure you can add some trickle sounds in.Kelly Molson: Yeah.Robbie Jones: If you wanted to.Kelly Molson: Let's end there, shall we? It's been a pleasure. Thank you, Robbie.Robbie Jones: Thank you so much.Kelly Molson: Thanks for listening to Skip the Queue. If you've enjoyed this podcast, please leave us a five star review, it really helps others find us. And remember to follow us on Twitter for your chance to win the books that have been mentioned. Skip the Queue is brought to you by Rubber Cheese, a digital agency that builds remarkable systems and websites for attractions that helps them increase their visitor numbers. You can find show notes and transcriptions from this episode and more over on our website rubbercheese.com/podcast.

Overconfidence is my "favourite" of the Heath Brothers' four villains of decision making. It's simultaneously super obnoxious and super universal. And boardrooms provide the perfect environment for overconfidence to thrive and get in the way of your decisions. Background music is Of the Stars by KC Roberts & the Live Revolution ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: Freakonomics Radio Season 9, Episode 46 Gender Differences in Overconfidence and Decision-Making in High-Stakes Competitions Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test The Power of Precise Predictions   SCRIPT Maybe “favourite” isn't the perfect word here, but I'll say it anyway: overconfidence is my favourite of the Heath Brothers' four villains of decision-making. It's so complex, insidious, unconscious, and nearly ubiquitous. Overconfidence even FEELS good, so…well, it's pretty hard to steer completely around it in group decision environments like boardrooms. Take some time to scan the academic literature on overconfidence, including awesome recent stuff by Philip Tetlock from University of Pennsylvania, and the amazing book “Range” by David Epstein. Basically, it turns out that the more expertise you have in a specific field, the worse you get at making predictions about that field…and the more confident are at making those bad predictions. Another messed up thing about overconfidence? It's deeply gendered. Men, unsurprisingly, fall victim to overconfidence far more readily than women – hence the tendency to “mansplain.” Women, on the other hand, are more likely to be victims of UNDERconfidence, which as you can imagine also impedes effective decision-making. I've put some interesting links in the episode description for you to check out if you want to see more of the research in this area. People usually become corporate directors specifically because they have deep expertise in some area or another. So, as experts, how can we be useful in the boardroom without inviting the villains into the mix? My best advice is to lean on your expertise to ask big questions, tell cool stories, start interesting conversations…instead of just telling people what you think the future holds. No matter how confident you feel.

Startup advisor and early-stage investor focused on network effects. "Creator" of Breadcrumb.vc and Applied Network Effects (one of the highest rated courses on Maven) — both are globally renowned resources to learn about network effects. I'm also part of the Atomico Angel Program, where I invest in early-stage startups with network effects. Please direct all pitches and consulting/speaking requests to sameer@breadcrumb.vc. 14 years of experience in the technology ecosystem — distributed between technology startups and investing. For much of this time, I studied technology business models and network effects in a professional capacity and via independent projects. Previously, spent 5 years at App Annie, a Sequoia-funded, late-stage startup during its hypergrowth phase. There, I led a global, cross-functional team, working across product, marketing, and sales. Advised leading tech companies like Spotify, Shpock and Trainline. Before that, I was an early-stage investor focused on commerce businesses. I have been quoted or mentioned in leading publications, including Reuters, Sifted, Business Insider, The Guardian, Sifted, and Techcrunch. My prior independent work has also been referenced in Philip Tetlock's book, Superforecasting.

India Policy Watch #1: Love For PutinInsights on burning policy issues in India- RSJYou must have noticed a distinct anti-west, pro-Putin tone in the media outlets that toe the government’s line in India. The intellectual right has been busy with columns equivocating on who has to shoulder the blame for the war. What could be the reasons for this? There’s of course the strategic autonomy argument. We are dependent on Russia for our defence and oil requirements. It has been a reliable friend of ours in the past. And we cannot trust the US anyway. There’s also the added hypocrisy of western Europe which continues to trade gas with Russia while lecturing us on our purchase of oil. Everyone is looking out for their interests and so should we. It is best to keep equidistant from any particular formation and act as a ‘swing power’. Pranay has written in the past few editions on why strategic autonomy as a policy isn’t suited for the likely emerging world order. But that aside, you can somewhat understand the anti-west stance if its origins lie in the traditional suspicion of the west and reflexive desire to be non-aligned in the policy circle in India. But there’s more here. The anti-west stance is also about fighting the favourite imaginary global nexus of liberals and wokes. So, you will notice almost every television debate on Ukraine will devolve into some kind of liberal and Biden bashing. If you are so concerned about Ukraine, why don’t you put your troops on the ground instead of hectoring India - is the usual line taken by anchors. Implicit in it is some kind of ‘Putin envy’ that I have noticed among the right-wing intellectuals in India. The idea that a strong man like Putin has revived national pride among Russians and brought it back into the superpower league from where it was languishing in the aftermath of the Soviet meltdown. This is obviously rubbish if you bother to look at the data. Russia is a small power whose economy has gone from bad to worse under Putin. It has a huge nuclear stockpile from its past that gives the rest of the world the only reason to pause before dismissing it as a nobody. But there’s a fascination among the right intellectuals to make the case for a Putin-like revival of India. I remember just before the 2014 elections, Swapan Dasgupta made this argument in the Sunday Times of India (Mar 9, 2014):“However, to a people exasperated with prolonged uncertainty and decline, Putin is the antidote to the unending sadness and deprivation that defined 20th century Russia. He has created the conditions for the average Russian to feel good, get rich and, for a change, indulge. This exuberance is unlikely to last indefinitely but, for the moment, the Russian context favours a Putin-like robustness......To the west, Putin’s reclamation of Crimea (and, earlier, a slice of Georgia) and his assertion of Russia’s stakes in Ukraine may seem ominous. For Russia, it is, however, symbolic of the bid to reverse the historic defeat in the Cold War. But Putin’s bid to reclaim Russia’s status as a Great Power was only possible because the economic and political foundations for an enhanced role have been firmed up over the past decade. In India, on the other hand, the fierce desire of the past 25 years to transcend mediocrity, shoddiness and look the world powers in the eye has floundered. It is not that the UPA government has no achievements to its credit. India has progressed but it has seriously under-performed in terms of its potential... Whether faith in Modi encapsulates the anger at a dismal present and a brighter future will be tested in a free election. If Modi prevails on May 16, we shouldn’t be surprised if his detractors paint him to the world as India’s Putin. If he lives up to the liberal demonology, those with a stake in India’s future should be elated. Just as Russia is with Putin.”I remember this column distinctly for two reasons. It was already so wrong back then in thinking that Russia was becoming a Great Power under Putin. But, importantly, it gave me an early indicator of what kind of aspiration the right has from its political dominance in India. Some kind of muddled civilisational nationalism with akhand Bharat fantasies whose best example for them was an expansionist Russia of 2014. Putin was their best answer to western liberalism and the wokeism that accompanied it. It worried me then and it has only gotten worse.The right intellectual ecosystem has continued in the same vein in the last two months. Here’s R. Jagannathan writing in the Swarajya on how NATO is past its sell-by date:“The reality is that Europe is the most fractious of continents, and just as France and Germany decided after the two world wars that enemies must be part of the same economic union to avoid future wars, Russia needs to become a part of both the mutual defence pact and the European Union. This way Europe’s security needs will be buttressed with a mutual economic zone where Russia’s energy can power Europe, and Europe’s markets Russia’s economic revival.America can at best be an observer in this alliance. The world cannot allow its over-grown military-industrial complex to decide who should go to war against who just so that this complex can protect its commercial interests.India’s own security architecture would be better protected by aligning with this expanded Europe, and especially with France and Germany, with Russia and Japan being other big partners. A Franco-German-Russo-Indo-Japanese QUINT (rather than an America-led QUAD) could lead to a less threatening relationship with China.”It is quite an intellectual leap to first contemplate some kind of QUINT with those powers coming together. What specific long-term interests bind them? None, except for the author’s fantasy to somehow shoehorn Russia as a legitimate and peaceful power under Putin. At its heart lies the same revivalist admiration and fantasy that Swapan Dasgupta spoke of in 2014. There’s, however, a different reason I can think of about the stance taken by these pro-government media channels on Russia and the war in Ukraine. And this credits the government with a lot more intelligence in managing its position on Ukraine. It is about the government playing the two-level game really well here. As we know, all negotiations in international relations are a two-level game as Putnam put it. At any time, a state is negotiating with other states (intergovernmental) while simultaneously managing its domestic constituency and its concerns on the issues. A clever negotiator will look to use his position on one ‘table’ to influence the outcome on the other in a way that gets him a ‘win’ that’s part of his ‘win-set’. Maybe, just maybe, the government is playing a clever two-level game. It is using its phalanx of friendly editors and journalists to talk up India’s dependence on Russia, its historical special ties with it and how dumping Russia at this moment will be perceived negatively by the people of India. This seems like a good tactic to follow because it allows the ministry of external affairs to sit at the international table and show the constraints India has to give its unqualified support to the west. “See, this is the domestic mood on Russia. What do you want us to do beyond a point” - that’s what India might be telling the west. This seems like a good way to continue sitting on the fence on the issue and hoping for the war to end to have things sort themselves out. I would like to believe this is what the government has been doing to keep itself away from western sanctions while it continues to engage with Russia. Is it working? Well, it seemed to have worked for a while. However, the US patience seems to be wearing thin as this warning from Brian Deese, the White House National Economic Council Director, suggests:"Our message to the Indian government is that the costs and consequences for them of moving into a more explicit strategic alignment with Russia will be significant and long-term. There are certainly areas where we have been disappointed by both China and India's decisions, in the context of the invasion."Hmm. So, what changed? One of the going-in assumptions in Putnam’s two-level game theory is about the credibility of the constraints and options each state might have in its hands. If you have to show you have a domestic compulsion because of which you will need some flexibility on the international table, it must appear credible to the other state at the table. India might be emphasising its domestic compulsions in supporting Russia by showing what’s appearing in the media as the mood of the nation. But for the US to consider it credible, it must be convinced that this domestic ‘view’ is emerging independently. Beyond a point that must be difficult to swallow for the US considering how a large section of our media has turned into government mouthpieces in the past few years.  Of course, a fair and independent media is necessary for the domestic polity. But it is good for international negotiations too.India Policy Watch #2: RBI’s Tough Act Insights on burning policy issues in India- RSJThe Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI met earlier this week and based on its assessment decided to change its policy stance from remaining accommodative “as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis” to remaining accommodative “while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth”.I hope you were able to spot the change. Essentially, RBI has prepared the ground for an increase in policy rates in the second half of this year. One of my predictions for the year was that we will have a total of three policy rate hikes cumulating to 75 bps. The stage is set for that prediction to come true. Broadly, there were three messages from the MPC meeting:The input cost pressures will continue to impact the economy buffeted by global supply chain disruptions, commodity price increases and continuing uncertainty because of the war in Ukraine. RBI sharply revised its own estimate of inflation for FY 23 from 4.5 per cent to 5.7 per cent. This 120 bps increase was a belated recognition of the inflation risk in the economy with the likelihood of it breaching the 4 (+/- 2) per cent range. Once it goes beyond 6 per cent, the RBI has to explain it to the parliament. Though I don’t see why it should be such a concern if it is in lock-step with the Finance ministry and the government enjoys a brute majority in the house. But it seems like that 6 percent mark is some kind of Rubicon. That apart it made it clear that inflation control is now its chief priority over growth for the year. And that’s a big shift. My view is CPI inflation will go over 6 per cent during the year unless we see normalisation in Ukraine sooner.On growth, the RBI lowered its forecast from 7.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY 23 citing a broad range of risks to it - a surge in commodity prices, hawkish policy stances in developed economies, supply-side disruptions, weakening global demand and geopolitical risks. The huge government capex cycle that was promised in the Budget isn’t going to happen in a hurry. The disinvestment proceeds have also been delayed because of the choppiness of the equity market and the big LIC IPO might happen at a more realistic and muted valuation than earlier projections. These are all weighing down the growth outlook. The good news on tax collection buoyancy, robust rural demand and a steady urban consumption trend have meant the RBI still expects the growth to come in above 7 per cent. That will be tested going forward.The liquidity in the banking system continues to be quite high (Rs. 8.5 lakh crores) and RBI was extremely careful about how it will suck this liquidity out in the future. RBI will follow a “gradual and calibrated withdrawal of this liquidity over a multi-year time frame in a non-disruptive manner”. In other words, they will stretch out this excess liquidity scenario as long as they can. RBI has been holding variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auctions to absorb liquidity on a periodic basis while continuing with variable repo rate (VRR) auctions simultaneously to meet liquidity shortages. This ‘Operation Twist’ will continue. It has also increased the held to maturity (HTM) limit for banks from 22 per cent to 23 per cent and allowed them to have G-secs under this category. The RBI also introduced the standing deposit facility (SDF) as an uncollateralised form of reverse repo or liquidity absorption tool. What this means is that banks can now park overnight liquidity at RBI at the SDF rate of 3.75 per cent without RBI having to put G-secs as collateral into Bank accounts. In effect, the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) corridor which is the difference of rates at which RBI takes in and infuses liquidity into the banking system, is back at the pre-pandemic level of 50 bps without RBI specifically increasing the reverse repo rates. Among the numerous RBI has already adopted, these are another set of ways to support the government borrowing programme for this fiscal. In summary, for the number of economic and global variables it has to juggle while keeping the government happy that it is doing everything to support growth, the RBI has the toughest job in the country. And I will say it makes a fair fist of it.   A Framework a Week: The Three Binding Constraints on Technological ProgressTools for thinking public policy— Pranay KotasthaneIn an excellent essay for Works in Progress, Brian Potter has an interesting insight on technology governance. He writes:There’s a pattern that we frequently see in the development of a new technology. Initially, the practical functionality is limited by the technology itself – what’s built and used is close to the limit of what the technology is physically capable of doing. As the technology develops and its capabilities improve, there’s a divergence between what a technology can physically do and what it can economically do, and you begin to see commercialized versions that have lower performance but are more affordable. Then, as people begin to build within this envelope of economic possibility, capability tends to get further constrained by legal restrictions, especially if the new technology has any (real or perceived) negative externalities.A framework from microeconomics can be used to visualise this insight rather well—production possibility frontiers (PPF). A PPF curve results from trade-offs. Given finite resources, producing more goods of one kind leaves less resources on the table for another. Thus, given a fixed budget constraint, a PPF curve shows the production options available for a society. All points below a PPF curve are the available options (like points A,B, C & D in the figure), and the ones above it (like X) are unavailable due to resource constraints. What Potter’s insight adds is that we can probably imagine three distinct production possibility frontiers in technological development—economic, policy, and technological, as shown in the chart below.In the first stage of technology developlent, the technological PPF is itself a binding constraint as newly intriduced products have several bugs. In Stage 2, however, the technological PPF is no longer the binding constraint. At this point, it’s the economic PPF that sets the limits for what is producible. In the final stage, the limiting constraint is policy rather than economic or technological. Development of cryptocurrency technology is a relevant example. In the first stage, the total currency that could be churned out was limited by the technology itself. Soon enough, those constraints were overcome and a number of different currencies proliferated. The binding constraint then became economic, as mining new currencies became tougher. With more energy-efficient mechanisms such as proof-of-stake on the horizon, the binding constraint is no longer economic. Instead, it’s the policy and legal constraints that limit production.The closer the policy and economic PPFs move towards the technological PPF, the faster the technological development. At the same time, the policy PFF can be used to avoid production at the technological limits. Broadly, two approaches are available. Start with a tight policy PPF and then expand it slowly. Or start with a really loose PPF and reduce it depending on the observed negative effects. In low policy capacity situations, the latter approach offers more opportunities for growth. Easier said than done. PolicyWTF: Bihar Prohibition SagaThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?— Pranay KotasthaneProhibition is a gift that keeps giving. Six years ago, the Bihar government criminalised the manufacturing, bottling, distribution, transportation, collection, storage, possession, purchase, sale, or consumption of alcohol. You very well know how that would’ve turned out. First, deaths due to consumption of spurious alochol became a regular occurence. Second, prohibition cases and ‘convicts’ overwhelmed the state’s already anaemic law and order machinery. Eventually, the Supreme Court issued an order in February this year, stating that:We find a number of cases coming to this Court arising from proceedings initiated under the Bihar Prohibition and Excise Amendment Act, 2018. The trial Court and the High Court are both being crowded by bail applications to an extent that at some stage 16 judges of the High Court are listening to bail matters and prosecutions under the Act concerned forms a large part of it. Denial of bail would also result in crowding of the prisons.In response, the Bihar government now proposes to amend the Prohibition Act of 2016. Instead of getting rid of prohibition, the amendment focuses narrowly on the Supreme Court’s objections. For instance, being caught the first time for drinking now attracts a penalty of Rs 2000-5000 instead of imprisonment. And to reduce the burden of cases, the bill proposes that consumption offences will be heard by executive magistrates who will be appointed by the state government especially for such offences. It seems that the Bihar government is also recruiting ‘prohibition constables’ for better enforcement.Anticipating the unintended consequences is easy. With different punishments for the first and subsequent offences, these rules will boost the Police’s rent-seeking powers. The Police will treat everyone as repeat offenders by default. On payment of an amount sufficiently greater than Rs 5000, the offence will be magically converted into a first offence, settled with a fine. Instead of focusing on Bihar’s terrible law and order situation, the Police and Executive Magistrates will take special interest in catching people for drinking alcohol. The Supreme Court’s immediate problem might well reduce but the lives of Biharis will become worse. Bihar government would do well to heed to Ambedkar’s vehement rejection of prohibition:“From the point of equity, there is no justification for prohibition. The cost of prohibition is borne by the general public. Why should the general public be made to pay the cost of reforming a lakh or two of habitual drunkards who could never be reformed ? Why should the general public be made to pay the cost of prohibition when the other wants of the public such as eduction, housing and health are crying for remedy? Why not use the money for development plans? Who has greater priority, the Drunkard or the Hungry? There are pertinent questions to which there is no answer except arrogance and obstinacy. Whatever happens, the policy of prohibition must be reversed and this colossal waste of public money should be put a stop to and the resources utilised for advancing general welfare.”Advertisement: If you enjoy the themes we discuss in this newsletter, consider taking up the Graduate Certificate in Public Policy course. Intake for the next cohort is open. 12-weeks, fully online, designed with working professionals in mind, and most importantly, guaranteed fun and learning.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Magazine] Works in Progress is emerging as an exceptional storehouse of exceptional ideas. There are few other online spaces where the signal to noise ratio is as high.[Blog post] Yiqin Fu’s post on the unintended consequences of a mobile-first walled-garden internet on knowledge creation is an eye-opener. [Forecasting Tournament] We have written earlier about the educational value of making precise predictions. Check out the Metaculus forecasting tournament on the Ukraine conflict, and force yourself out of what Philip Tetlock calls “outcome-irrelevant learning”. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

Deepak Shenoy wants to ask Amit Varma about the creator economy. Amit wants to talk to Deepak about finance and his new book. Episode 271 of The Seen and the Unseen is a crossover episode with the Capital Mind Podcast in which Amit and Deepak get a jugalbandi going. Also check out: 1. Deepak Shenoy on LinkedIn and Twitter. 2. Money Wise: Timeless Lessons on Building Wealth -- Deepak Shenoy. 3. Capitalmind, Deepak Shenoy's investment research and wealth management company. 4. The Capitalmind Podcast and YouTube channel. 5. Lessons in Investing (and Life) -- Episode 208 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Deepak Shenoy). 6. If You Are a Creator, This Is Your Time -- Amit Varma. 7. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on the creator ecosystem with Roshan Abbas, Varun Duggirala, Neelesh Misra, Snehal Pradhan, Chuck Gopal and Nishant Jain. 8. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty -- James Thurber. 9. Mungerilal Ke Haseen Sapne (on Wikipedia and YouTube). 10. The Truman Show -- Peter Weir. 11. Losing My Religion -- REM. 12. With or Without You -- U2. 13. Conversation and Society -- Episode 182 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Russ Roberts). 14. Econ Talk (by Russ Roberts) and Conversations with Tyler (by Tyler Cowen). 15. The Prem Panicker Files -- Episode 217 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Prem Panicker). 16. The Connell Guide to How to Write Well -- Tim de Lisle. 17. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life -- Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 18. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri -- Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen. 19. Rukmini Sees India's Multitudes -- Episode 261 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 20. Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas — Natasha Dow Schüll. 21. When Harry Met Sally -- Rob Reiner. 22. Dil Dhoondhta Hai Phir Wohi Fursat Ke Raat Din -- Bhupinder Singh. 23. Dave Barry on Amazon. 24. Indian Society: The Last 30 Years -- Episode 137 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Santosh Desai). 25. Gurpriya Sidhu's tweet thread on sitting alone at cafes. 26. Self-Esteem (and a Puddle) -- Amit Varma's post with Douglas Adams's puddle quote. 27. The Life and Times of Mrinal Pande -- Episode 262 of The Seen and the Unseen. 28. Men Are from Mars, Women Are from Venus -- John Gray. 29. The Blank Slate -- Steven Pinker. 30. $800,000 to Zero - The FASCINATING History of DaVinci Resolve -- Alex Jordan of Learn Color Grading. 31. Casey Neistat and MrBeast on YouTube. 32. 1000 True Fans — Kevin Kelly. 33. 1000 True Fans? Try 100 — Li Jin. 34. Sinocism -- Bill BIshop's Newsletter. 35. Steven Van Zandt: Springsteen, the death of rock and Van Morrison on Covid — Richard Purden. 36. Blueprint for Armageddon -- Episode 50-55 of Dan Carlin's Hardcore History. 37. The Universe of Chuck Gopal -- Episode 258 of The Seen and the Unseen. 38. Miss Excel on Instagram and TikTok. 39. How an Excel Tiktoker Manifested Her Way to Making Six Figures a Day — Nilay Patel. 40. AR Rahman on Spotify. 41. Nuclear Power Can Save the World — Joshua S Goldstein, Staffan A Qvist and Steven Pinker. 42. Beware of Quacks. Alternative Medicine is Injurious to Health -- Amit Varma. 43. Dave Chappelle on Netflix. 44. Ideas of India -- Shruti Rajagopalan's podcast. 45. Narendra Shenoy and Mr Narendra Shenoy -- Episode 250 of The Seen and the Unseen. 46. Superforecasting — Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 47. Dunbar's Number. 48. Poker and Stock Markets -- Episode 47 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Mohit Satyanand). 49. So it's now 20,000, is it a big deal? -- Deepak Shenoy's famous ghazals post from 2007. 50. Hoshwalon Ko Khabar Kya -- Jagjit Singh, from Sarfarosh. 51. Tum Ko Dekha Toh Ye Khayal Aaya -- Jagjit Singh, from Saath Saath. 52. How I Made $4,790,000 in 2021 -- Ali Abdaal. 53. The Power of Imagination — Mohammed Salim Khan. 54. Don't Get Fooled By Success (2005) -- Amit Varma. 55. The Life and Times of Nirupama Rao -- Episode 269 of The Seen and the Unseen. 56. Zerodha Varsity. 57. The Motley Fool. 58. The YouTube Channels of Rachana Ranade and Ishmohit Arora. 59. Stock Market For Beginners (Hindi) -- Pranjal Kamra. 60. Everything You Need to Know About Finance and Investing in Under an Hour -- William Ackman. 61. Liar's Poker -- Michael Lewis. 62. Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist -- Roger Lowenstein. 63. When Genius Failed -- Roger Lowenstein. 64. Peter Lynch on Amazon. 65. Market Wizards & The New Market Wizards by Jack D Schwager. 66. The Complete TurtleTrader: How 23 Novice Investors Became Overnight Millionaires -- Michael W Covel. 67. Invest Like the Best — Patrick O'Shaughnessy's podcast. 68. Books we Like: On Investing, Trading & More — The Capitalmind team. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free!

Indian mainstream media tends to see our country with the gaze of a privileged North Indian man. That is changing. Dhanya Rajendran joins Amit Varma in episode 267 of The Seen and the Unseen to talk about her journey in setting up The News Minute, and in deepening our journalism and the conversations we have. Also check out: 1. Dhanya Rajendran on Twitter, Instagram and The News Minute. 2. Support The News Minute. 3. Cut the Clutter. 4. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri -- Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen. 5. The death of Savita Halappanavar. 6. Steven Van Zandt: Springsteen, the death of rock and Van Morrison on Covid — Richard Purden. 7. Some regional publications: Newsmeter, The Cue and Truecopythink. 8. 7 Indians are hostages in a conflict between Houthi rebels and Saudi coalition in Yemen -- Sanyukta Dharmadhikari. 9. The Story of an Income Tax Search -- Dhanya Rajendran on Instagram. 10. TV Newsance -- Manisha Pande -- YouTube Playlist. 11. 10,000 people charged with sedition in one Jharkhand district -- Supriya Sharma for Scroll. 12. Manju and the Mommy Wars: Why should women conform to 'ideal mother' stereotype? -- Sowmya Rajendran. 13. Superforecasting -- Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 14. The Mallu Analyst on YouTube. 15. Get Roast with Gaya3 on YouTube. 16. A Meditation on Form -- Amit Varma. 17. Narendra Modi takes a Great Leap Backwards -- Amit Varma on Demonetisation. 18. Ram Guha Reflects on His Life -- Episode 266 of The Seen and the Unseen. 19. Tweets on the Bharat Biotech court case by Siddharth Varadarajan and Dhanya Rajendran. (See who got trolled more!) 20. Does India take its national symbols too seriously? — Jan 2008 episode of We the People. 21. Our Hindu Rashtra -- Aakar Patel. 22. Price of the Modi Years -- Aakar Patel. 23. Whole Numbers and Half Truths -- Rukmini S. 24. Rukmini Sees India's Multitudes -- Episode 261 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 25. Malare -- Song from Premam. 26. Missing: Half the Story: Journalism as if Gender Matters -- Kalpana Sharma and others. 27. The Anatomy of Hate -- Revati Laul. 28. The Seasons of Trouble -- Rohini Mohan. 29. Notting Hill. 30. And once again, support The News Minute! This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free!

The value of a company has a lot to do with the stories it tells about itself. Aswath Damodaran joins Vasant Dhar in episode 33 of Brave New World to discuss how narratives and numbers are related. Useful Resources: 1. Aswath Damodaran on YouTube, Blogspot, Twitter, Amazon and NYU Stern. 2. Narrative and Numbers: The Value of Stories in Business -- Aswath Damodaran. 3. The Innovator's Dilemma -- Clayton M Christensen. 4. A Disruptive Cab Ride to Riches: The Uber Payoff -- Aswath Damodaran. 5. How to Miss By a Mile: An Alternative Look at Uber's Potential Market Size -- Bill Gurley. 6. Possible, Plausible and Probable: Big markets and Networking effects -- Aswath Damodaran. 7. Up, up and away! A crowd-valuation of Uber! -- Aswath Damodaran. 8. The Success Equation -- Michael J Mauboussin. 9. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 10. Philip Tetlock on the Art of Forecasting -- Episode 31 of Brave New World. 11. The Zomato IPO: A Bet on Big Markets and Platforms! -- Aswath Damodaran. 12. Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions — Ezra Karger, Joshua Monrad, Barb Mellers and Philip Tetlock. 13. Trafalgar Polls. 14. The Hedgehog and the Fox -- Isaiah Berlin. 15. The Big Market Delusion: Valuation and Investment Implications -- Bradford Cornell and Aswath Damodaran. 16. The Market is Huge! Revisiting the Big Market Delusion -- Aswath Damodaran.

Listen to Warren Hatch, the CEO of New York-based Good Judgment Inc., which specializes on superforecasting, in the most recent episode of 21st Century Entrepreneurship. In 2011, the US intelligence community's equivalent to DARPA - IARPA - launched a competition to find cutting-edge methods for forecasting geopolitical events. Four years and over 1 million forecasts later – with Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania leading – GJP emerged as the winner and outperformed intelligence analysts. Good Judgment Inc is now commercializing this winning approach to harness research by the crowd, and their clients benefit from that externally-validated forecasting methodology.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: To Match the Greats, Don't Follow In Their Footsteps, published by HoldenKarnofsky on February 11, 2022 on LessWrong. People who dream of being like the great innovators in history often try working in the same fields - physics for people who dream of being like Einstein, biology for people who dream of being like Darwin, etc. But this seems backwards to me. To be as revolutionary as these folks were, it wasn't enough to be smart and creative. As I've argued previously, it helped an awful lot to be in a field that wasn't too crowded or well-established. So if you're in a prestigious field with a well-known career track and tons of competition, you're lacking one of the essential ingredients right off the bat. Here are a few riffs on that theme. The next Einstein probably won't study physics, and maybe won't study any academic science. Einstein's theory of relativity was prompted by a puzzle raised 18 years earlier. By contrast, a lot of today's physics is trying to solve puzzles that are many decades old (e.g.) and have been subjected to a massive, well-funded attack from legions of scientists armed with billions of dollars' worth of experimental equipment. I don't think any patent clerk would have a prayer at competing with professional physicists today - I'm thinking today's problems are just harder. And the new theory that eventually resolves today's challenges probably won't be as cool or important as what Einstein came up with, either. Maybe today's Einstein is revolutionizing our ability to understand the world we're in, but in some new way that doesn't belong to a well-established field. Maybe they're studying a weird, low-prestige question about the nature of our reality, like anthropic reasoning. Or maybe they're Philip Tetlock, more-or-less inventing a field that turbocharges our ability to predict the future. The next Babe Ruth probably won't play baseball. Mike Trout is probably better than Babe Ruth in every way,2 and you probably haven't heard of him. Maybe today's Babe Ruth is someone who plays an initially less popular sport, and - like Babe Ruth - plays it like it's never been played before, transforms it, and transcends it by personally appealing to more people than the entire sport does minus them. Like Tiger Woods, or what Ronda Rousey looked at one point like she was on track to be. The next Beethoven or Shakespeare probably won't write orchestral music or plays. Firstly because those formats may well be significantly “tapped out,” and secondly because (unlike at the time) they aren't the way to reach the biggest audience. We're probably in the middle stages of a “TV golden age” where new business models have made it possible to create more cohesive, intellectual shows. So maybe the next Beethoven is a TV showrunner. It doesn't seem like anyone has really turned video games into a respected art form yet - maybe the next Beethoven will come along shortly after that happens. Or maybe the next Beethoven or Shakespeare doesn't do anything today that looks like “art” at all. Maybe they do something else that reaches and inspires huge numbers of people. Maybe they're about to change web design forever, or revolutionize advertising. Maybe it's #1 TikTok user Charli d'Amelio, and maybe there will be whole academic fields devoted to studying the nuances of her work someday, marveling at the fact that no one racks up that number of followers anymore. The next Neil Armstrong probably won't be an astronaut. It was a big deal to set foot outside of Earth for the first time ever. You can only do that once. Maybe we'll feel the same sense of excitement and heroism about the first person to step on Mars, but I doubt it. I don't really have any idea what kind of person could fill role in the near future. Maybe no one. I definitely don't think that our lack of ret...

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: To Match the Greats, Don't Follow In Their Footsteps, published by HoldenKarnofsky on February 11, 2022 on LessWrong. People who dream of being like the great innovators in history often try working in the same fields - physics for people who dream of being like Einstein, biology for people who dream of being like Darwin, etc. But this seems backwards to me. To be as revolutionary as these folks were, it wasn't enough to be smart and creative. As I've argued previously, it helped an awful lot to be in a field that wasn't too crowded or well-established. So if you're in a prestigious field with a well-known career track and tons of competition, you're lacking one of the essential ingredients right off the bat. Here are a few riffs on that theme. The next Einstein probably won't study physics, and maybe won't study any academic science. Einstein's theory of relativity was prompted by a puzzle raised 18 years earlier. By contrast, a lot of today's physics is trying to solve puzzles that are many decades old (e.g.) and have been subjected to a massive, well-funded attack from legions of scientists armed with billions of dollars' worth of experimental equipment. I don't think any patent clerk would have a prayer at competing with professional physicists today - I'm thinking today's problems are just harder. And the new theory that eventually resolves today's challenges probably won't be as cool or important as what Einstein came up with, either. Maybe today's Einstein is revolutionizing our ability to understand the world we're in, but in some new way that doesn't belong to a well-established field. Maybe they're studying a weird, low-prestige question about the nature of our reality, like anthropic reasoning. Or maybe they're Philip Tetlock, more-or-less inventing a field that turbocharges our ability to predict the future. The next Babe Ruth probably won't play baseball. Mike Trout is probably better than Babe Ruth in every way,2 and you probably haven't heard of him. Maybe today's Babe Ruth is someone who plays an initially less popular sport, and - like Babe Ruth - plays it like it's never been played before, transforms it, and transcends it by personally appealing to more people than the entire sport does minus them. Like Tiger Woods, or what Ronda Rousey looked at one point like she was on track to be. The next Beethoven or Shakespeare probably won't write orchestral music or plays. Firstly because those formats may well be significantly “tapped out,” and secondly because (unlike at the time) they aren't the way to reach the biggest audience. We're probably in the middle stages of a “TV golden age” where new business models have made it possible to create more cohesive, intellectual shows. So maybe the next Beethoven is a TV showrunner. It doesn't seem like anyone has really turned video games into a respected art form yet - maybe the next Beethoven will come along shortly after that happens. Or maybe the next Beethoven or Shakespeare doesn't do anything today that looks like “art” at all. Maybe they do something else that reaches and inspires huge numbers of people. Maybe they're about to change web design forever, or revolutionize advertising. Maybe it's #1 TikTok user Charli d'Amelio, and maybe there will be whole academic fields devoted to studying the nuances of her work someday, marveling at the fact that no one racks up that number of followers anymore. The next Neil Armstrong probably won't be an astronaut. It was a big deal to set foot outside of Earth for the first time ever. You can only do that once. Maybe we'll feel the same sense of excitement and heroism about the first person to step on Mars, but I doubt it. I don't really have any idea what kind of person could fill role in the near future. Maybe no one. I definitely don't think that our lack of ret...

Yogi Berra once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Philip Tetlock joins Vasant Dhar in episode 31 of Brave New World to discuss what  superforecasters do consistently well -- and how we can improve our judgement and decision-making. Useful resources: 1. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction -- Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 2. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? -- Philip Tetlock. 3. Daniel Kahneman on How Noise Hampers Judgement -- Episode 21 of Brave New World. 4. Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer -- Duncan Watts. 5. The Hedgehog and the Fox -- Isiah Berlin. 6. What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters? -- Christopher W Karvetski, Carolyn Meinel, Daniel T Maxwell, Yunzi Lu, Barbara A.Mellers and Philip E.Tetlock. 7. Terry Odean on How to Think about Investing -- Episode 23 of Brave New World. 8. Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions -- Ezra Karger, Joshua Monrad, Barb Mellers and Philip Tetlock. 9. The Signal and the Noise -- Nate Silver. 10. FiveThirtyEight.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021., published by NunoSempere on January 27, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Table of contents The American Empire Has Alzheimer's. Prediction Markets: VC money, searching for DraftKings, predatory pricing, and the race to be last. For skilled forecasters, crypto prediction markets are much more profitable than forecasting platforms. Best forecasting pieces from 2021 You can sign up for or view this newsletter on substack, where there are already a few thoughtful comments. To some extent, this edition of the newsletter is a bit more centered on prediction markets, and more targeted to prediction market developers. But I still think it'll be interesting/valuable to EA readers. The American Empire has Alzheimer's It is 1964. Sherman Kent is a senior intelligence analyst. While doing some rudimentary experiments, he realizes that analysts themselves disagree about the degree of confidence that words convey. He suggests that analysts clearly state how certain they are of their conclusions, by using words that correspond to probabilities. This will allow keeping track of how analysts do, while being simple enough for less detail-focused politicians to understand. His proposal encounters deep resistance, and doesn't get implemented. It is the 30th of April of 1975. With the fall of Saigon, the US finally pulls out of a bloody war with Vietnam. There are embarrassing images of people flying out of the US embassy at the last moment. Biden is a newly-minted senator from Delaware. It is 2001. The US intelligence agencies are very embarrassed by not having been able to predict the September 11 attacks. The position of the Director of National Intelligence, and an associated Office of the Director of National Intelligence, is established to coordinate all intelligence agencies to do better in the future. At the same time, Robin Hanson pushes for a "Policy Analysis Market", which would have covered topics of geopolitical interest. This proposal becomes too controversial, and gets dropped. It is 2008. A bunch of Nobel Prize winners and other luminaries publish a letter urging the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to make prediction markets more legal. It is 2010. IARPA, an intelligence agency modeled after DARPA, which incubates high-risk, high payoff projects, creates a tournament to find out which forecasting setups do best. Philip Tetlock had done some experiments which found that pre-selecting participants does pretty well. He repeatedly wins the IARPA tournament, and creates Good Judgment Inc to provide the services of his preselected high-performance forecasters. The US doesn't buy their services, and Good Judgment Inc survives by selling very expensive training sessions to clients which have too much money. It is 2013. The CFTC shuts down Intrade, one of the only prediction market platforms in the US. It is 2017 and onwards. As Ethereum and crypto more generally become more mainstream, some prediction markets on top of crypto-blockchains start to pop up, such as Augur, Omen, and later, Polymarket. As cryptocurrencies become more and more popular, the fees on the original Ethereum blockchain increase so much that placing bets on these prediction markets becomes too expensive. Polymarket survives by moving to a "layer two" blockchain, a less paranoidly secure blockchain that mimics the Ethereum blockchain, and which allows users to continue betting. It is the summer of 2021. Biden makes incredibly overconfident assertions about the Afghani government holding on against the Taliban. It doesn't. There are images of the evacuation from Kabul, Afghanistan which look very similar to the evacuation from Saigon, Vietnam. This is all very embarrassing to the Biden administration, and his approval rating drops drastically. “The...

You may think you have India figured out -- but do you? Rukmini S joins Amit Varma in episode 261 of The Seen and the Unseen to speak about the many layers of India she has uncovered by looking closely at data, and the stories that lie beneath. Also check out: 1. Whole Numbers and Half Truths -- Rukmini S. 2. The Importance of Data Journalism -- Episode 196 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 3. The Loneliness of the Indian Woman -- Episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shrayana Bhattacharya). 4. The White Album -- Joan Didion. 5. The world's most expensive coffee, made from poop of civet cat, is made in India -- Hindustan Times news report. 6. A Life in Indian Politics -- Episode 149 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jayaprakash Narayan). 7. What Have We Done With Our Independence? -- Episode 186 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratap Bhanu Mehta). 8. The Business of Books -- Episode 150 of The Seen and the Unseen (w VK Karthika). 9. Munni Badnaam Hui. 10. Beautiful Thing -- Sonia Faleiro. 11. The Good Girls -- Sonia Faleiro. 12. Two Girls Hanging From a Tree -- Episode 209 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Sonia Faleiro). 13. Daily Rituals -- Mason Currey. 14. Daily Rituals: Women at Work -- Mason Currey. 15. Pramit Bhattacharya Believes in Just One Ism -- Episode 256 of The Seen and the Unseen. 16. Food and Nutrition in India: Facts and Interpretations -- Angus Deaton and Jean Dreze. 17. The Three Languages of Politics -- Arnold Kling. 18. Modeling Covid-19 -- Episode 224 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gautam Menon). 19. The Practice of Medicine -- Episode 229 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Lancelot Pinto). 20. Sample SSR conspiracy theory: He's alive! 21. The Case Against Sugar — Gary Taubes. 22. The Big Fat Surprise — Nina Teicholz. 23. The Obesity Code — Jason Fung. 24. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on the creator ecosystem with Roshan Abbas, Varun Duggirala, Neelesh Misra, Snehal Pradhan, Chuck Gopal and Nishant Jain. 25. Steven Van Zandt: Springsteen, the death of rock and Van Morrison on Covid — Richard Purden. 26. Ravish Kumar's Instagram post on Rukmini's book. 27. Dataclysm: Who We Are (When We Think No One's Looking) -- Christian Rudder. 28. Everybody Lies -- Seth Stephens-Davidowitz. 29. The Truth About Ourselves -- Amit Varma. 30. Posts by Amit Varma on Mahindra Watsa: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. 31. The Kavita Krishnan Files -- Episode 228 of The Seen and the Unseen. 32. One Bad Law Goes, but Women Remain Second-Class Citizens -- Amit Varma. 33. The papers on declining labour force participation of Indian women by Ashwini Deshpande and Sonalde Desai. 34. Amit Varma's provocative tweet on Urdu poetry. 35. If It's Monday It Must Be Madurai -- Srinath Perur. 36. Ghachar Ghochar -- Vivek Shanbhag (translated by Srinath Perur). 37. Girl No.166: Will this retired cop ever stop looking for Pooja? -- Smita Nair. 38. Private Truths, Public Lies — Timur Kuran. 39. Group Polarization on Wikipedia. 40. Where Anna Hazare Gets It Wrong -- Amit Varma. 41. Superforecasting -- Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 42. Think Again -- Adam Grant. 43. Ideology and Identity — Pradeep K Chhibber and Rahul Verma. 44. Political Ideology in India -- Episode 131 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). 45. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength -- Amit Varma. 46. The Ultimate Resource -- Julian Simon. 47. The Simon-Ehrlich Wager. 48. India Moving — Chinmay Tumbe. 49. India = Migration -- Episode 128 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Chinmay Tumbe). 50. Unemployment rate at four-decade high of 6.1% in 2017-18: NSSO survey -- Somesh Jha. 51. Consumer spend sees first fall in 4 decades on weak rural demand: NSO data -- Somesh Jha. 52. Raag Darbari (Hindi) (English) — Shrilal Shukla. 53. The Competent Authority -- Shovon Chowdhury. 54. Despite the State -- M Rajshekhar. 55. Ponniyin Selvan (Tamil) (English) (English audio) -- Kalki R Krishnamurthy. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Check out Amit's online courses, The Art of Clear Writing and The Art of Podcasting. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free!

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Long-Term Future Fund: July 2021 grant recommendations, published by abergal on January 18, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Introduction The Long-Term Future Fund made the following grants through July 2021: Total grants: $1,427,019 Number of grantees: 18 Payout date: July 2021 Report authors: Asya Bergal (Chair), Oliver Habryka, Adam Gleave, Evan Hubinger, Luisa Rodriguez This payout report is substantially delayed, but we're hoping to get our next payout report covering grants through November out very soon. Updates since our last payout report: We took on Luisa Rodriguez as a guest manager in June and July. We switched from a round-based system to rolling applications. We received $675,000 from Jaan Tallinn through the Survival and Flourishing Fund. Public payout reports for EA Funds grantees are now optional. Consider applying for funding from the Long-Term Future Fund here. Grant reports Note: Many of the grant reports below are very detailed. Public reports are optional for our grantees, and we run all of our payout reports by grantees before publishing them. We think carefully about what information to include to maximize transparency while respecting grantees' preferences. We encourage anyone who thinks they could use funding to positively influence the long-term trajectory of humanity to apply for a grant. Grant reports by Asya Bergal Any views expressed below are my personal views and not the views of my employer, Open Philanthropy. In particular, receiving funding from the Long-Term Future Fund should not be read as an indication that an organization or individual has an elevated likelihood of receiving funding from Open Philanthropy. Correspondingly, not receiving funding from the Long-Term Future Fund (or any risks and reservations noted in the public payout report) should not be read as an indication that an organization or individual has a diminished likelihood of receiving funding from Open Philanthropy. Ezra Karger, Pavel Atanasov, Philip Tetlock ($572,000) Existential risk forecasting tournaments. This grant is to Ezra Karger, Pavel Atanasov, and Philip Tetlock to run an existential risk forecasting tournament. Philip Tetlock is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania; he is known in part for his work on The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments, and for his book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, which details findings from that study. Pavel Atanasov is a decision psychologist currently working as a Co-PI on two NSF projects focused on predicting the outcomes of clinical trials. He previously worked as a post-doctoral scholar with Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the Good Judgement Project, and as a consultant for the SAGE research team that won the last season of IARPA's Hybrid Forecasting Competition. Ezra Karger is an applied microeconomist working in the research group of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; he is a superforecaster who has participated in several IARPA-sponsored forecasting tournaments and has worked with Philip Tetlock on some of the methods proposed in the tournament below. Paraphrasing from the proposal, the original plan for the tournament was as follows: Have a panel of subject-matter experts (SMEs) choose 10 long-run questions about existential risks and 20 short-run, resolvable, early warning indicator questions as inputs for the long-run questions. Ask the SMEs to submit forecasts and rationales for each question. Divide the superforecasters into two groups. Ask each person to forecast the same questions as the SMEs and explain those forecasts. For short-run questions, evaluate forecasts using a proper scoring rule, like Brier or logarithmic scores. For long-run questions, use reciprocal scoring to incentivize ac...

Indian women are lonely in the bedroom, lonely in the kitchen, lonely in the workplace. Shrayana Bhattacharya joins Amit Varma in episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss the interior and exterior lives of these unseen millions. Also check out 1. Desperately Seeking Shah Rukh: India's Lonely Young Women and the Search for Intimacy and Independence -- Shrayana Bhattacharya. 2. Select Shah Rukh Khan films: Baazigar, DDLJ, Dil Tho Pagal Hai, Kal Ho Naa Ho, Dilwale, Mohabbatein. 3. Shar Rukh Khan interviews selected by Shrayana: 1, 2, 3, 4. 4. The Power to Choose -- Naila Kabeer. 5. Naila Kabeer on Amazon. 6. Counting for Nothing: What Men Value and What Women are Worth -- Marilyn Waring. 7. The Odd Woman and the City -- Vivian Gornick. 8. Vivian Gornick on Amazon. 9. Future Sex -- Emily Witt. 10. Kamala Das's autobiography, poems and stories. 11. Deborah Levy and Bell Hooks on Amazon. 12. Poor Economics -- Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo. 13. Exit, Voice, and Loyalty -- Albert O Hirschman. 14. The Art of Loving -- Erich Fromm. 15. The Penguin Complete Novels of Nancy Mitford. 16. Selected Satire: Fifty Years of Ignorance -- Shrilal Shukla. 17. Most of Amit Varma's writing on DeMon, collected in one Twitter thread. 18. Dani Rodrik's tweet thread about the 'jerk quotient' in economics. 19. The Hidden Taxes on Women -- Sendhil Mullainathan. 20. "Academia is a giant circlejerk" -- Amit Varma's tweet. 21. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ajay Shah (in reverse chronological order): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 22. The Universe of Chuck Gopal -- Episode 258 of The Seen and the Unseen. 23. Miss Excel on Instagram and TikTok. 24. Bahujan Economics. 25. Raghuram Rajan at the Harvard Kennedy School in 2018. (Minute 5 onwards.) 26. In Service of the Republic -- Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah. 27. Superforecasting -- Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 28. Listen, The Internet Has SPACE -- Amit Varma. 29. Raees: An Empty Shell of a Gangster Film -- Amit Varma. 30. The Baptist, the Bootlegger and the Dead Man Walking -- Amit Varma. 31. Bootleggers and Baptists-The Education of a Regulatory Economist -- Bruce Yandle. 32. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Jai Arjun Singh and Uday Bhatia. 33. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri -- Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen. 34. Films, Feminism, Paromita -- Episode 155 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Paromita Vohra). 35. Modi's Lost Opportunity -- Episode 119 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Salman Soz). 36. Women at Work -- Episode 132 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Namita Bhandare). 37. What explains the decline in female labour force participation in India? -- Urmila Chatterjee, Rinku Murgai and Martin Rama. 38. Why Are Fewer Married Women Joining the Work Force in India? -- Farzana Afridi, Taryn Dinkelman and Kanika Mahajan. 39. India Moving — Chinmay Tumbe. 40. India = Migration -- Episode 128 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Chinmay Tumbe). 41. House of Secrets: The Burari Deaths. 42. The Right to Sex -- Amia Srinivasan. 43. 'Let Me Interrupt Your Expertise With My Confidence' -- New Yorker cartoon by Jason Adam Katzenstein. 44. Katty Kay and Claire Shipman -- Katty Kay and Claire Shipman. 45. The Ugliness of the Indian Male -- Mukul Kesavan. 46. The Blank Noise Project by Jasmeen Patheja. 47. Why Loiter? -- Shilpa Phadke. 48. The Jackson Katz quote on passive sentence constructions. 49. The Kavita Krishnan Files -- Episode 228 of The Seen and the Unseen. 50. Metrics of Empowerment — Episode 88 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Devika Kher, Nidhi Gupta and Hamsini Hariharan). 51. Jane Austen and Pico Iyer on Amazon. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Check out Amit's online courses, The Art of Clear Writing and The Art of Podcasting. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free!

Programming Note: Anticipating The Unintended will be on its annual year-end break for the next two weeks. Normal services will resume from Jan 9, 2022. Happy Holidays.This is the last edition for 2021. There’s always a temptation to look back at the year gone and arrive at some kind of things-we-learnt-this-year list. As much as we’d like to do that, we really have nothing insightful to offer. It wasn’t a great year for most part because of the pandemic and it is ending on a foreboding note. Anyway, so what do we have in this year-end edition? We start with talking about the one overriding emotion that the two of us had through the year. What’s that one constant feeling that summed up our view of most events during the year? We then move on to the predictions we had made at the start of 2021 and see how each of us fared. And we close out with books, newsletters, podcasts or videos that we enjoyed greatly. That’s what is on the menu today.The 2021 State Of MindRSJ: Through the year my mind went back to the lines from one of my favourite poems, The Second Coming by W.B. Yeats. It is somewhat apposite too. Yeats wrote the poem just after WW-1 had ended and during the Spanish flu pandemic. His pregnant wife contracted the flu and survived after a harrowing time. Yeats paints a bleak landscape of disorder and anarchy with warring factions and a divided world order. The voices of reason lack moral strength because the false convictions of the passionate have taken over. To quote Yeats:“The best lack all conviction, while the worstAre full of passionate intensity.”That’s how I felt most of 2021. Funnily enough, I started noticing many variations of these lines over the past months. I guess I lived through the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon on this one. I have collated them here. Back in 1871, in the introduction to his book, Descent of Man, Charles Darwin wrote:“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, and not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science.”In his 1931 essay, The Triumph of Stupidity, Bertrand Russell wrote:“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt. Even those of the intelligent who believe that they have a nostrum are too individualistic to combine with other intelligent men from whom they differ on minor points. This was not always the case. A hundred years ago the philosophical radicals formed a school of intelligent men who were just as sure of themselves as the Hitlerites are; the result was that they dominated politics and that the world advanced rapidly both in intelligence and in material well-being.It is quite true that the intelligence of the philosophical radicals was very limited. It is, I think, undeniable that the best men of the present day have a wider and truer outlook, but the best men of that day had influence, while the best men of this are impotent spectators. Perhaps we shall have to realise that scepticism and intellectual individualism are luxuries which in our tragic age must be forgone, and if intelligence is to be effective, it will have to be combined with a moral fervour which it usually possessed in the past but now usually lacks.”In his essay, A Cult of Ignorance, published in the Newsweek (1980), Isaac Asimov wrote:“Anti- intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.Now we have slogans on the part of obscurantists: "Don't trust the experts!"... We have a new buzzword too, for anyone who admires competence, knowledge, learning and skill, and who wishes to spread it around. People like that are called 'elitists'....What shall we do about it? We might begin by asking ourselves whether ignorance is so wonderful after all, and whether it makes sense to denounce 'elitism'. I believe that every human being with a physically normal brain can learn a great deal and can be surprisingly intellectual. I believe what we badly need is social approval of learning and social rewards for learning.”Of course, all of this culminated into a wonderful paper by David Dunning and Justin Kruger titled, “Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments”. Published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Dec 1999, the abstract of the paper asserted:“People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it.”Thus was born the Dunning-Kruger effect. It owned 2021.Pranay:As for many of you, 2021 was my first year, in many many years, spent entirely at home. Until 2021, there were two neat compartments in my head: a ‘professional’ one and a ‘personal’ one. I associated terms such as ambition, learning, and planning only to the ‘professional’ compartment. On most issues outside that sphere, I thought I could just wing it. To use RSJ’s framing, it was the Dunning-Kruger effect at play in one compartment of life. So, 2021 has been about trying to unlearn many erroneous conclusions I had reached about wellbeing (physical and mental), parenting, relationships, and self-worth. There’s a lot to learn. But just the dissolution of the false assumption that two very different approaches apply to the two spheres of life is liberating. Our Predictions Report CardAt the start of this year, we were foolhardy enough to make a few predictions. We will see how we fared on them.RSJ:Pranay had made an important point about predictions then:“... predictions are susceptible to what Philip Tetlock calls ‘outcome-irrelevant learning’ — a situation wherein no matter the reality, people are in an excellent position to explain that what happened was consistent with their view.One way to check outcome-irrelevant learning is first to make specific, measurable predictions and then reflect on real-world outcomes at the end of the prediction horizon. Which, for this newsletter, means we will do another post at the end of 2021 reflecting on our hits and misses.”I must admit my 10 predictions didn’t exactly fit Pranay’s definition of being specific and measurable. So, as I look back, you can accuse me of conveniently retrofitting the actual outcomes to them. FWIW, let’s see how I fared.Prediction 1: By the end of 2021, we will all realise we overrated the long-term impact of the pandemic on everything. There won’t be any ‘new normal’ to write home about. Things will be more of the same.Outcome: Largely true, I would think. Maybe 6/10 on accuracy. No dramatic shift seen on anything yet. Prediction 2:  The size of the stimulus in most developed economies and the amount of liquidity pumped into the system will mean two things – eventual inflation and a repeat of the taper tantrum in future. Deficits have come to mean nothing and any future slowdown in the economy or fall in markets will mean more stimulus.Outcome: Not bad. I guess 7/10 on this.Prediction 3: The stock markets are in bubble territory now. But there won’t be any reckoning in 2021. The stocks doing well during the pandemic will continue to do well. The divergence between the real economy and the street will continue to confound all of us.Outcome: Cannot complain. 7.5/10Prediction 4: The early signs are of a K-shaped recovery around the world. This will be strengthened in 2021. A small set of companies and people will see a rising graph of growth and prosperity. The long-term impact of the pandemic will be to worsen inequality. The early but definite signs of this will show up in 2021.Outcome: Again 7.5/10Prediction 5: Credit offtake will be weak and the revival of consumption story will be dampened because of this. Private investments were trending downwards anyway before the pandemic. Its revival seems unlikely in 2021.Outcome: Maybe 7/10Prediction 6: The Chinese economy will lead the global growth engine. Despite its misadventures during the pandemic, China will continue its rise to the top. The Biden administration will take a more accommodative stance towards China. The trade war will subside and the EU will continue to strengthen its relationship with China. Outcome: Mostly wrong. China has continued to do well but it has its problems. 3/10Prediction 7: Technology sovereignty will be a key theme in 2021. Countries across the western world will assert their technology independence. The most common form this will take is in keeping Chinese technology companies out of strategic sectors like telecom and finance infrastructure services. Or you could expect heavy fines for restrictive or anti-competitive practices and heavier hand of regulations on these (big tech) companies.Outcome: Largely right. China itself came down heavily on its tech giants while Lina Khan, the chair of FTC, continued her tirade against Big Tech. 6/10Prediction 8: How to vaccinate India will be a policy question that will keep everyone busy in the first half of 2021. Everything about vaccines – procurement, pricing, storage, administration and safety – will test our policymakers. My guess is we will do quite well in this entire exercise. Outcome: I guess we did better than what we expected at the start of 2021. We are still behind on booster doses and vaccines for kids though. 7/10Prediction 9: It won’t be a great year for reforms. The wrong lessons will be learnt from the protests against farm law reforms. Plus, the usual set of assembly elections and the weak economy post the pandemic will continue to weigh on the government. So good, bold and much-needed reforms across sectors will again go into the backburner. Outcome: Cannot disagree. Barring Air India sale and some boost to manufacturing, not much happened here. The start-up story isn’t really a government story to own. Then there was the farm law repeal. Enough said. 7/10Prediction 10: The BJP election machine will have a mixed year. Barring Assam where it should keep its majority and some gains in West Bengal, it won’t see much success. The campaign and the narrative building leading up to elections in Assam and West Bengal will not be for the faint-hearted. There will be a plethora of fake news, violence and no-holds-barred Muslim bashing. The signs are already there on the news channels. The opposition will remain largely ineffective with some kind of split happening in the Congress during the year. But there will also be the earliest sign of some kind of coming together of regional parties to counter BJP in 2024. This seems inevitable.Outcome: Well, that looks fairly accurate. So 8/10.Overall, not bad but I will try to be more specific about next year’s predictions.Pranay:This is the report card of the five predictions I made at the start of 2021. Prediction 11: Petrol prices in Bangalore will hit ₹100 at least once before the end of 2021.Outcome: Petrol prices were at ₹86.47 in Bengaluru on 1st Jan 2021. The prediction was based on the reasoning that excise duties on petrol and diesel are the superhero of last resort for state and union governments. As public spending rose in the backdrop of the second wave of COVID-19, both union and state governments took the easy route of increasing taxes on petrol and diesel. Petrol prices hit the hundred mark in June and galloped to ₹113 by November. Since then, they have settled to just above ₹100. Of course, there were no nationwide protests over the issue. No electoral results were attributed to this price hike, even though the rising inflation would have hit many people hard. Prediction 12: A maximum of 2 CPSUs will be privatised by the end of 2021.Outcome: The backdrop of this prediction was the buzz surrounding the union government’s grand scheme to sell its stake in over 25 CPSUs. The Ministry of Finance’s reply in the Lok Sabha has the details. And from what I can gather, just two CPSUs have found a buyer this year — Air India and Central Electronics Limited.Prediction 13: GST will continue to have the current five tax slabs.Outcome: My reasoning behind this prediction was that the fiasco on the GST compensation cess has broken the trust between union and state governments, and the latter will not welcome any further changes in the GST regime this year. Prediction 14: The status quo at Ladakh in terms of territorial control will continue.Outcome: Just yesterday, the Indian Air Force Chief had this to say: “the standoff does continue. Disengagement has taken place in certain areas in Eastern Ladakh. But, the complete disengagement has not yet been done I would not like to go into the details, but suffice to say we are deployed, we are prepared to take on any challenge that may face us in that area with the shortest of notice.”Prediction 15: The number of US service personnel in Afghanistan will fall below 2500 by the end of 2021.Outcome: The prediction turned out to be true of course. But little did I expect that the withdrawal would put the Taliban in full control of Afghanistan. Finally, I also had a note related to RSJ’s prediction on US and China. The Biden administration has, indeed, continued key elements of the previous administration’s trade policies on China. In the high tech domain, the restrictions are likely to tighten further.These were my five predictions. In retrospect, it looks like I made some safe (and obvious?) bets. Read, Saw Or HeardWe will close with our top recommendations of books, podcasts, newsletters et al, that we came across in 2021. RSJ: In no particular order, here are mineThis Is How They Tell Me The World Ends: The Cyberweapons Arms Race. A riveting take on global cyber warfare by Nicole Perloth that reads like a thriller. Deservingly won the 2021 Financial Times Business Book of the Year award.The Code Breaker: Jennifer Doudna, Gene Editing, and the Future of the Human Race. Walter Issacson’s book couldn’t have been more timely. The history of gene editing, development of CRISPR and how all of it came together to create vaccines for Covid-19 are all part of this absorbing and informative book. The Light that Failed: A Reckoning. Krastev and Holmes on why liberal democracy faltered in eastern Europe. There are lessons for everyone there. India’s Founding Moment: The Constitution of a Most Surprising Democracy. Madhav Khosla’s wonderful narration of the people, the ideas and the debates that went into the creation of our Constitution. Wanderers, Kings, Merchants: The Story of India through Its Languages by Peggy Mohan. A forensic on Indian languages and what they tell us about our history and the evolution of our culture. Civilisation and reclaiming of it is often thrown about loosely in India these days. Our languages hold the secrets of our civilisation. Understanding them may be a useful precondition to whatever it is we are trying to reclaim. Klara and the Sun by Kazuo Ishiguro. A peek into our future where kids are kept company by artificial friends but love still makes the world go round. The Plot by Jean Hanff Korelitz. A ‘howdunit’ that keeps you engrossed till the end though you figure out the climax two-thirds of the way. Surprising that way.The Reith Lectures: Pranay introduced them to me and I have been hooked since.The Lex Fridman Podcast: The ‘Amit Varma, Sam Harris and Russ Roberts rolled into one’ of science and tech podcasting. Long episodes (many over 5 hours) about deep tech, AI, string theory, ultramarathons, truck driving and whatever else that catches Lex’s fancy.Ideas of India by Shruti Rajagopalan: Great conversations and a much needed platform to hear from young scholars about their work on India. Newsletters: Noahopinion by Noah Smith (original and insightful) and Chartbook by Adam Tooze (the best place to find out about new books and interesting ideas). Also, Strange Loop Canon by Rohit (no idea about his last name) and SneakyArt Post by Nishant Jain - two newsletters from Indians based abroad that I found interesting. Read them.There were other books (esp fiction) and interesting podcast episodes to share but maybe some other time Pranay:Humankind: A Hopeful History challenged my Bayesian priors like no other book this year.The Quillette online magazine usually has pieces that go against the prevailing dominant narratives. Womaning in India newsletter taught me a lot. Anirban Mahapatra’s Gyandemic newsletter is full of TILs on new science findings.Your Undivided Attention Podcast convinced me that our information environment is polluted and we need to take charge of our consumption choices. Take care. Stay safe. See you in 2022. Subscribe at publicpolicy.substack.com

Are some thoughts too evil to think? Sometimes we avoid seemingly rational lines of reasoning, not because of logic, innumeracy or ignorance, but for morality. In his guide to thinking better, Professor Steven Pinker explores the trade-offs between taboos and our ability to reason clearly. Steven's joined by Philip Tetlock, professor at the University of Pennsylvania, author of ‘Super Forecasting' and the psychologist who originated the modern study of taboo. And by Sally Satel, a psychiatrist and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. When she needed a kidney transplant, and then another, should she have been able to simply buy one online? Producers: Imogen Walford and Joe Kent Editor: Emma Rippon Think with Pinker is produced in partnership with The Open University.

This is a recording of the type of critical, candid, yet fun conversation that is also a hands-on expert lesson on how to think creatively with purpose in a distracted world with one of the brightest and creative individuals I have met. I sat down with Jonah Sachs, a true original thinker, marketing executive, speaker, philanthropist, and author of "Unsafe Thinking" and “Winning the Story Wars” who shared his personal perspectives on unlocking creativity with social responsibility and purpose to spread the ideas that matter! Highlights: 04:19 – What inspired you to write “Unsafe Thinking”? Jonah: This book describes my personal journey to answer how I along with my ad agency could re-learn to break the rules once again which is how we had originally become successful. 7:08 – What are some of the ideas that matter to you today? Jonah: I have now moved from marketing to philanthropy and am very concerned as a father about the state of our climate and the ecological crisis we are about to face. 9:19 – Do you have to have a clear vision in order to spread the ideas that matter? 10:04 – Jonah: Scene from “The Matrix” where Neo is tied up and Agents Smith 11:12 – There is a story in your book “Unsafe Thinking” about an expedition to discover the new source of the Nile river that captivated me. What are some of the lessons from it you wanted to convey to the readers? Jonah: In 2005, one adventurer, Cam McLeay and his team navigated the Nile all the way from the mouth to what they call its new source, farther than anyone had ever done. They were expert navigators and included an expert aviator and were able to make their boats fly by attaching wings to their boat to fly over the top of the waterfall. It took one small innovation at a time at every challenge to accomplish this feat. 13:32 – Jonah: Use Fear as Fuel - Mahatma Gandhi case study of learning to embrace and manage his fears. 16:50 – Tim Grover, Michael Jordan's personal coach of many years, and the author of “W1NNING” states that fear teaches you how to win, while doubt merely teaches you what to do in order not to lose. 18:35 – What kind of feedback have you received while touring for your book “Unsafe Thinking” for 2 years globally? Jonah: The most common response is “I would love to take risks but my boss or my company or my clients just will not let me “. We live in a world that constantly rewards conformism so an important lesson I have learned is to be an explorer, not an expert. 21:45 – Jonah: Study of 20,000 so-called recognized “experts” by Philip Tetlock at Berkeley 23:42 – Dr. Barry Marshall's unconventional approach that led to the cure of ulcers and his Nobel prize. 27:37 – Yuval Harrari, a globally renowned lecturer, writer, and history professor from Oxford, says that “our history began when we created Gods and our history will end when we become Gods”. 28:45 – Jonah: Harrari has another fantastic quote – “The Scientific Revolution was kicked off when we started being more interested in what we did not know than in what we know.” 29:33 – Question from the LinkedIn Live Audience: What are your thoughts on tactics for convincing the expert that maybe the newbies/outsiders' ideas are better? Jonah: Shared information bias is a situation in which teams of people gravitate towards what most agree upon. 32:36 – How can we utilize technology in a way to make the ideas that matter go global? Jonah: We consulted Tristan Harris on the famous Netflix movie called “Social Dilemma”, which talks about how we are being manipulated by social media. But distraction may also be a big part of our creativity. 36:35 – Your ideas and dedication to social responsibility is inspiring. As Andy Warhol said, “the idea is not to live forever but to leave ideas that will”. Jonah: Any piece of advice taken to the extremes will lead you to the safe thinking cycle. Listen to the experts, take it all in, and live a varied life of unexpected moments of discovery! --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/alloutcoach/support

Can we predict the future more accurately?It's a question we humans have grappled with since the dawn of civilization — one that has massive implications for how we run our organizations, how we make policy decisions, and how we live our everyday lives.It's also the question that Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author of “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” has dedicated his career to answering. In 2011, he recruited and trained a team of ordinary citizens to compete in a forecasting tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community. Participants were asked to place numerical probabilities from 0 to 100 percent on questions like “Will North Korea launch a new multistage missile in the next year” and “Is Greece going to leave the eurozone in the next six months?” Tetlock's group of amateur forecasters would go head-to-head against teams of academics as well as career intelligence analysts, including those from the C.I.A., who had access to classified information that Tetlock's team didn't have.The results were shocking, even to Tetlock. His team won the competition by such a large margin that the government agency funding the competition decided to kick everyone else out, and just study Tetlock's forecasters — the best of whom were dubbed “superforecasters” — to see what intelligence experts might learn from them.So this conversation is about why some people, like Tetlock's “superforecasters,” are so much better at predicting the future than everyone else — and about the intellectual virtues, habits of mind, and ways of thinking that the rest of us can learn to become better forecasters ourselves. It also explores Tetlock's famous finding that the average expert is roughly as accurate as “a dart-throwing chimpanzee” at predicting future events, the inverse correlation between a person's fame and their ability to make accurate predictions, how superforecasters approach real-life questions like whether robots will replace white-collar workers, why government bureaucracies are often resistant to adopt the tools of superforecasting and more.Mentioned:Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock“What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters?” by Christopher W. Karvetski et al.Book recommendations:Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel KahnemanEnlightenment Now by Steven PinkerPerception and Misperception in International Politics by Robert JervisThis episode is guest-hosted by Julia Galef, a co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality, host of the “Rationally Speaking” podcast and author of “The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't.” You can follow her on Twitter @JuliaGalef. (Learn more about the other guest hosts during Ezra's parental leave here.)Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of "The Ezra Klein Show" at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.“The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Rogé Karma; fact-checking by Michelle Harris; original music by Isaac Jones; mixing by Jeff Geld; audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin and Alison Bruzek.

We overestimate our skill at decision making. We're pretty bad, and bias isn't the only reason. Daniel Kahneman joins Vasant Dhar in episode 21 of Brave New World to shed light on the problem of Noise, and what we can do about it. Useful resources: 1. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement -- Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein. 2. Thinking, Fast and Slow -- Daniel Kahneman. 3. Dissecting “Noise” -- Vasant Dhar. 4. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction -- Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 5. Herbert A Simon on Amazon.

Philip Tetlock has been arguing for awhile that experts are horrible at prediction, but that his superforecasters do much better. If that's the case how did they do with respect to the fall of Afghanistan? As far as I can tell they didn't make any predictions on how long the Afghanistan government would last. Or they did make predictions and they were just as wrong as everyone else and they've buried them.  In light of this I thought it was time to revisit the limitations and distortions inherent in Tetlock's superforecasting project.

Every forecaster has wanted to know what the most important factor for improving forecasting accuracy is, but for a long time the answer was not clear. Thanks to a chance overlap of co-authors Ville Satopää and Marat Salikhov at INSEAD, however, a new paper was published alongside forecasting pioneers Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers that does a great job of providing a solution. Their paper, “Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting,” deconstructs the forecasting process into its component parts of: Information (the inputs you use to move your forecast away from the base rate), Bias (systematic error across a number of forecasts from a single forecaster), and Noise (non-information that is registered as information in a forecast). From there they test which of these parts is most critical to the accuracy of a forecast, and posit methods to improve in these areas. In this episode we are lucky enough to sit down with Ville and Marat to discuss the origins of this paper, its findings, and the implications for the future of forecasting. We talk about possible avenues for further research based on the exciting results from Ville and Marat's research, and even speculate on potential applications of the research in new and interesting environments.

What are the core components of forecasts and how can those pinpoint areas for improvement? How can those principles be applied to forecasting war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass or the winner of the upcoming presidential election in Peru where far-left faces off against far-right? Andrew and Clay are flying solo in this week's episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast. This week, we discuss our recent forecast on renewed fighting in the Donbass region between Russia and Ukraine and our reactions to recent news of Russian troops withdrawal. We also dive deep into the "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting" paper by Ville Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip Tetlock, and Barb Mellers. We concluded this week's episode by discussing our upcoming forecast on Peru's 2021 election for President. Website: https://globalguessing.com/​ Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing​ Facebook: https://facebook.com/globalguessing​ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/global-guessing/  

Philip Tetlock's research on the qualities of Super-forecasters explains why forecasting is hard and how diverse models and systematic thinking can help close the gap. We discuss: Improving predictions by regularly updating data The Brier Score and why it really matters Why larger samples permit more accurate short term predictions The difficulties with the “Long Now” narrative Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.

Can you predict the future? Or at least gauge the probability of political or economic events in the near future? Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Superforecasting talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on assessing probabilities with teams of thoughtful amateurs. Tetlock finds that teams of amateurs trained in gathering information and thinking about it systematically outperformed experts in assigning probabilities of various events in a competition organized by IARPA, research agency under the Director of National Intelligence. In this conversation, Tetlock discusses the meaning, reliability, and usefulness of trying to assign probabilities to one-time events. Actually released 21 Dec 2015.

In about 650 B.C. the Greek poet Archilochus wrote, “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.”The renaissance scholar Erasmus quoted Archilochus in 1500 in his famous Adagia, saying, “Multa novit vulpes, verum echinus unum magnum.” In 1953, the philosopher Isaiah Berlin expanded on Archilochus and Erasmus in his often-quoted essay, The Hedgehog and the Fox. In 2017, University of Pennsylvania psychologist Philip Tetlock completed a 20-year study that contrasted the abilities of the one-big-thing “hedgehog” experts against the many-little-things “fox” non-experts to make accurate predictions about geopolitical events. Does it surprise you to learn that the “fox” non-experts outperformed the “hedgehog” experts by an overwhelming margin? What Tetlock discovered will help you tell the story of your company in a way that will cause customers to feel like they truly know you.American businesspeople tend to believe that every successful business is built on a single big idea, “one big thing.” But sadly, that bit of traditional wisdom is more tradition than wisdom. “One big thing” is hedgehog thinking. But foxes roam freely, listen carefully and consume omnivorously. Foxes know “many little things.” Customers will love the “many little things” story of your company told from the perspective of a fox. The story you need to be telling is the real one, a fascinating tale of hopes and dreams and failures and successes and realizations and refinements. Don't worry, we're going to help you write it. In 2011, the fox-like director of the British Museum, Neil MacGregor, used 100 objects in his museum as prisms through which he told the entire story of our world. That book, A History of the World in 100 Objects, became a wildly popular radio series and a blockbuster New York Times bestseller. The Wall Street Journal called it, “An enthralling and profoundly humane book that every civilized person should read.” The fascinating, riveting, highly-engaging story of your company is hidden in 10 objects that lie within your grasp.Bring those objects with you to Wizard Academy. It is time for “Show and Tell.” Dr. Richard D. Grant is a founding board member of Wizard Academy. Chris Maddock has been a Wizard of Ads writing instructor for 22 years. Tom Wanek is a Wizard of Ads partner with a particular talent for helping people discover wonderful stories that have been hiding in plain sight. These three masters will help you unleash the pivotal moments captured in your photographs, artifacts, and documents, and turn them into the fascinating story of your company's origin and evolution. This wonderful adventure through time and imagination https://www.wizardacademy.org/product/how-to-craft-the-story-of-your-company-november-5-6/ (will happen) November 5-6. We've only got room for 18 people. Roy H. Williams

Wharton's Philip Tetlock discusses the widening chasm between science-based political forecasting and the sound bites from pundits that often miss the mark. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

In the new book 'Superforecasting ' Wharton professor Philip Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner look into why making predictions is so difficult — and how we can become better at making them. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

A Pew study last year confirmed that U.S. political partisanship has risen sharply. In the face of that trend is it possible for Democrats and Republicans to get along? Wharton professor Philip Tetlock recently spoke with Jonathan Haidt author of The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion to explore this question. Haidt breaks down why it is so hard for liberals and conservatives to understand one another and what can be done to change that. (Video with transcript) See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.