Know Your Risk Radio with Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer, Bulwark Capital Management

May 20, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why markets continue reacting to every new “imminent peace” headline even as the underlying energy and inflation pressures keep worsening beneath the surface. They break down the latest Strait of Hormuz developments, why oil markets may still be dramatically underpricing future shortages, how SPR releases are masking deeper inventory problems, and why rising bond yields may be the real warning sign investors should be watching. They also discuss inflation risks, housing pressure, Nvidia earnings, semiconductor valuations, and why policymakers may be running out of realistic options.

May 19, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why bond markets may finally be waking up to the inflationary consequences of the global energy disruption as yields surge and investors continue underestimating the fragility of the system. They break down the latest Strait of Hormuz developments, why SPR releases and exports may only be temporary relief valves, how energy shortages could create delayed but violent inflation waves, and why markets still appear dangerously complacent about physical supply realities. They also discuss China, housing pressure from rising rates, AI infrastructure spending, and why many investors may still be treating this like a normal cycle when it clearly is not.

May 18, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why energy markets may be far closer to a breaking point than investors realize as global inventories continue tightening and policymakers scramble to manage the fallout. They break down the latest Strait of Hormuz developments, why SPR drawdowns and U.S. exports may be masking deeper shortages, how China is positioning itself strategically, and why markets still appear dangerously complacent about inflation and supply risks. They also discuss rising bond yields, housing pressure, AI infrastructure spending, and why the next phase of this cycle could look very different from the last decade.

May 18, 2026 - Zach and Chase are joined by Josh Young of Bison Interests to discuss why global energy markets may be far more fragile than investors realize. Josh breaks down the real inventory math behind the Strait of Hormuz disruption, why oil markets have remained surprisingly calm so far, what happens when global storage levels approach “tank bottoms,” and why many analysts may still be underestimating the scale of the risk. They also discuss SPR drawdowns, refinery margins, shale productivity, geopolitical uncertainty, and why energy service companies may offer some of the most asymmetric opportunities in the market today.

May 15, 2026 - Chase breaks down why surging bond yields, a stronger dollar, and rising inflation pressures may be creating some of the biggest long-term investing opportunities in years. He discusses why global capital flows could be shifting away from the U.S., why ex-U.S. defense and emerging markets remain compelling despite recent selloffs, what rising rates mean for gold and equities, and why policymakers may eventually be forced to weaken the dollar again. Chase also covers the fallout from the U.S.-China summit, sanctions risk, semiconductors, and why short-term market stress may create long-term positioning opportunities.

May 14, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why markets may still be dramatically underestimating the scale of the global energy disruption despite worsening inventory draws, tightening supply conditions, and mounting inflationary pressures. They break down the disconnect between semiconductor euphoria and physical energy realities, why diesel prices may matter more than crude itself, China's strategic positioning, SPR depletion, freight inflation risks, and why policymakers continue stimulating demand into what they believe is an unfolding supply shock.

May 13, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why markets continue ignoring mounting energy stress even as inventories tighten, inflation pressures rise, and supply disruptions worsen globally. They break down Nvidia surpassing the value of India's stock market, the growing disconnect between AI valuations and real-world profitability, why passive investment flows may be weakening underneath the surface, and how years of monetary intervention may have fundamentally distorted market behavior. They also discuss inflation surprises, China's economic pivot, and why policymakers may no longer be able to tolerate meaningful declines in asset prices.

May 12, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why energy markets may be far more fragile than investors realize as physical shortages continue building beneath the surface. They break down why current oil pricing may be dangerously disconnected from real-world supply conditions, how refiners are navigating tightening inventories, why inflation risks continue growing globally, and what happens if the Strait of Hormuz disruption lasts longer than markets expect. They also discuss AI spending mania, emerging market opportunities, commodity tightness, and why investors may be underestimating how serious this macro environment has become.

May 11, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why the biggest risk in global energy markets may not be the initial shock — but the delayed consequences already moving through the system. They break down worsening fuel shortages, distorted oil pricing, diesel stress, inflation risks, and why the market still appears disconnected from physical supply realities. They also discuss how AI infrastructure spending increasingly resembles prior speculative bubbles, why inflation metrics may be understating real-world pressure, and why commodity markets could remain structurally tight for years.

May 8, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the growing disconnect between market pricing, geopolitical reality, and the actual physical oil market. They discuss repeated “ceasefire” headlines, why the Strait of Hormuz situation may be far more serious than investors believe, and how narrative management may be suppressing critical price signals across energy markets. The conversation also dives into increasingly speculative AI and semiconductor valuations, comparisons to the late stages of the dot-com bubble, and why today's market behavior is beginning to look historically dangerous.

May 7, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the growing disconnect between market pricing and physical reality as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed far longer than most investors expected. They discuss why oil markets continue behaving irrationally, how political messaging is distorting price signals, and why passive flows and AI momentum may be overwhelming fundamentals across the broader market. The conversation also dives into semiconductors, China's tech ambitions, and why today's market structure may be more fragile than most people realize.

May 6, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the latest headlines surrounding a possible Iran deal and why markets may be celebrating far too early. They discuss the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the growing disconnect between paper and physical oil markets, and why a rushed resolution could leave Iran in a stronger geopolitical position than before. The conversation also dives into market manipulation concerns, the weakening dollar, global capital flows, and why many investors may still be looking in the wrong places.

May 5, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the growing disconnect between market behavior and underlying economic reality. Despite rising costs and mounting pressure on key industries like airlines and restaurants, many stocks continue to hold up or rally. They explore how AI-driven capex is distorting earnings, why certain sectors are facing unavoidable margin compression, and how inflation could hit consumers harder this time without the buffers seen in prior cycles. The conversation also dives into market concentration, global opportunities, and why patience may matter more than chasing momentum right now.

May 4, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why markets continue to underreact to escalating risks in energy and global supply chains. They discuss renewed hostilities in the Middle East, tightening oil markets, and why the current pricing disconnect may not last. The conversation also explores inflation risks, global growth concerns, and how second-order effects—from food to consumer spending—could begin compounding in the months ahead.

May 1, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why the current oil and geopolitical situation may be far more dangerous than markets are pricing in. They walk through the concept of a “chain of errors,” how supply shocks compound over time, and why delayed economic effects could still be building beneath the surface. The conversation also covers global food risks, investor complacency, and why markets may not be sending the right signals in this environment.

April 30, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down a confusing market rally happening against a backdrop of rising oil, inflation pressure, and global uncertainty. They discuss why international markets are outperforming, how currency moves are driving short-term behavior, and why many investors may be buying the wrong assets. The conversation also dives into AI capex risks, distorted earnings signals, and why the easiest opportunities may be outside of U.S. markets right now.

April 29, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why the current energy situation is fundamentally different from past oil shocks—and why the market may still be underestimating the impact. They walk through tightening inventories, rising fuel prices, and the cascading effects of supply constraints across the global economy. The discussion also covers tech earnings, rising capex pressures, Fed policy shifts, and why inflation could move significantly higher if current trends continue.

April 28, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why investors consistently misjudge compounding—both in markets and in macro risk. They discuss Paul Tudor Jones' insights on exponential thinking, why high-growth companies may not be as expensive as they appear, and how AI investment differs from past tech booms. The conversation also dives into rising supply pressures in equities, ongoing confusion around the Strait of Hormuz, and why the market may be underestimating how risk builds over time.

April 27, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why the market may be misreading one of the most important macro events in years. They discuss the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, why oil markets aren't reacting the way you'd expect, and how delayed economic impacts could still be building beneath the surface. The conversation also explores tech earnings strength, the illusion of resilience in certain sectors, and why many current market signals may be misleading.

April 24, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down a market hitting new highs while consumer confidence collapses to record lows, and why that disconnect may not last. They walk through the real-world impact of rising energy costs, the lag effect still moving through the economy, and why inflation pressures are likely just getting started. The conversation also explores AI-driven earnings growth, unsustainable margins, and how today's environment could be setting up a major shift in market expectations.

April 23, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the growing disconnect between rising oil prices and a stock market that continues to shrug off geopolitical risk. They walk through the real-world impacts of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, why energy markets are driven by math—not narrative—and how inflation pressures are already showing up across the global economy.

April 23, 2026 - Zach and Chase are joined by Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman of Praetorian Capital to break down the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, the potential long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the massive implications for global oil markets. Kuppy also shares his “feudalism” framework for understanding the modern economy, where capital concentration, asset inflation, and global capital flows are reshaping markets and society.

April 2, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the strange disconnect between rising oil, record-high equities, and a market that appears to be ignoring inflation, energy pressure, and growing macro risks.

April 21, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the collapse of Iran negotiations, the extension of a fragile ceasefire, and why the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to create major risks that markets may not be properly pricing.

April 20, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the growing disconnect between oil prices and geopolitical reality, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and why markets may be underestimating the risk of a major energy shock.

April 2, 2026 - Zach and Chase examine the unusual dynamics across markets, from Iran's geopolitical impact on oil to broader shifts in equities and commodities, highlighting how current conditions don't align with typical historical patterns.

April 2, 2026 - Chase analyzes the current market rally, highlighting the disconnect between rising equities, energy market dynamics, and underlying liquidity concerns, while questioning the sustainability of current valuations.

April 2, 2026 - Chase analyzes how recent ceasefire developments, geopolitical tensions, and rising inflation are shaping market conditions, emphasizing the risks of wishful thinking and the importance of strategic decision-making in a complex environment.

April 2, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss how escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are influencing markets, oil flows, and military strategy, highlighting the disconnect between market perceptions and the underlying geopolitical reality.

April 2, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the uncertainty surrounding potential military action and negotiations with Iran, exploring the complexities of modern warfare, decision-making, and the broader implications for markets and global stability.

April 2, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the disconnect between equities and oil, examining how geopolitical tensions, supply risks, and market reactions aren't aligning, and what that could mean for future economic outcomes.

Zach breaks down the implications of Washington state's new income tax, addressing misconceptions, economic impacts, and personal considerations for residents and business owners.

April 2, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the growing disconnect between market performance and economic fundamentals as oil prices rise, exploring the potential impacts on supply chains, corporate earnings, investor behavior, and the broader economy.

April 1, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are affecting market sentiment, oil prices, and investor behavior, along with the broader implications for economic growth and long-term investment strategy.

March 31, 2026 - This episode delves into market reactions to geopolitical events, the implications of military mobilization, and the potential economic and strategic outcomes of ongoing conflicts. Zach and Chase analyze recent market movements, discuss the likelihood of military escalation, and explore the future of global energy and defense industries.

March 30, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the current state of the market, focusing on the impact of global events on oil and energy prices. They explore the ongoing shortages and supply chain issues, the critical role of oil in the global economy, and the political implications of military strategies.

March 27, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the current state of the markets, exploring various economic indicators, the impact of global events, and the dynamics of commodities like gold and oil. They delve into the concept of market blindness, particularly in relation to ETFs, and the consequences of legislative actions on the economy. The conversation highlights the complexities of market behavior and the importance of understanding feedback loops in economic systems, particularly in the context of Seattle's evolving economic landscape.

March 26, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the current state of the financial markets, focusing on the S&P and NASDAQ's performance, the implications of political events on financial analysis, and the peculiarities of the oil market.

March 25, 2026 - Chase provides a detailed analysis of the current market trends, focusing on the S&P 500, oil prices, and geopolitical tensions affecting the market. He discusses the optimism in the market despite ongoing conflicts and the implications of potential ceasefires.

March 24, 2026 - Chase discusses the current state of the market amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly focusing on the potential ceasefire discussions between the US and Iran. He analyzes the implications of these developments on market dynamics, oil prices, and the broader economic landscape, while emphasizing the uncertainty that remains in the situation.

March 23, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the current state of the oil market, highlighting the significant dislocation between physical oil costs and paper markets. They explore the implications of global shortages, particularly in energy and food, and the strategic positioning of Iran in ongoing negotiations.

March 20, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the current state of the financial markets, focusing on the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices and investor sentiment. They analyze the market's reaction to recent developments, the dynamics of the oil market, and the implications for future economic conditions.

March 19, 2026 - Chase discusses the current state of the markets, emphasizing the significant influence of geopolitical tensions on economic conditions. He highlights the impact of escalating conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, on energy supplies and prices, especially diesel. The conversation also touches on the implications of investment commitments from Gulf countries and the potential economic consequences of ongoing tensions.

March 18, 2026 - Chase provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market conditions, focusing on the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices and the broader economic implications. He discusses the recent fluctuations in various markets, including equities and commodities, and highlights the potential for inflation to rise significantly.

March 17, 2026 - Chase provides a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions, focusing on key indicators such as oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and their implications for the global economy. He discusses the ongoing supply issues in the oil market, the impact of geopolitical events on pricing, and the broader economic consequences of these developments. 

March 16, 2026 - Oil market researcher Rory Johnston of CommodityContext.com helps to explore the complexities of the current oil market. They discuss Johnston's background in commodity research, the confusion surrounding oil prices, the implications of production shut-ins, and the differences between crude and refined products. The conversation also touches on government intervention in the market, potential export restrictions, and the dislocation between physical and paper markets, providing a comprehensive overview of the challenges facing the oil industry today.

March 13, 2026 - Zach Abraham discusses the current state of the markets, focusing on the challenges and dynamics affecting oil prices and the broader economic landscape. He emphasizes the importance of separating political views from investment strategies and highlights the potential opportunities in energy stocks amidst geopolitical tensions.

March 12, 2026 - This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of current market dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and oil market fluctuations. It emphasizes the importance of adaptive thinking in volatile environments and offers insights into market reactions, geopolitical risks, and strategic decision-making.

March 11, 2026 - Zach and Chase discussing the current geopolitical and economic landscape, focusing on oil markets, military strategies, and investment opportunities amid global tensions. They analyze market mispricings, the impact of geopolitical risks, and strategic investment advice.

March 10, 2026 - Zach discusses the current geopolitical tensions surrounding oil pricing, particularly focusing on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's role in the global economy. He emphasizes the importance of understanding how oil is priced and the potential implications of the ongoing conflict. Zach expresses concerns about market reactions and predictions, suggesting that the market may not be accurately reflecting the risks involved. He also touches on theories of market manipulation and concludes with thoughts on investment strategies in light of the current situation.

In this special episode, Zach discusses the complex situation in the Middle East, focusing on the implications of oil pricing and the geopolitical dynamics involving Iran, Israel, and the US. He emphasizes the critical role of oil in the global economy and explains how current events are affecting oil supply and pricing.